Latest:
 AFDLSX |  AFDSGF |  AFDEAX |
  [top]

000
FXUS63 KLSX 240003
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
603 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Monday)
Issued at 346 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

Main concern for tonight will be will there be any snow accumulation
over northwestern parts of the area as rain changes to snow behind a
sharp cold front. Most of the CWA has seen rain today and the
current band which is being forced by strong moisture convergence
and strong ascent ahead of ejecting shortwave trough will move
northeast of the CWA this evening. This will cause a lull in the
precipitation this evening before a second area currently over the
Plains moves into the area later this evening and overnight. This
area is being frontogenetically forced ahead of a second trough
currently over the northern Plains. Attendant cold front that
currently extends across central Iowa into far northwest Missouri
into eastern Kansas will push eastward this evening, reaching St.
Louis by midnight and east of the CWA by 3 am. Forecast soundings
suggest that the rain will mix with and then changeover to snow
after midnight before the frontogenetical band lifts out between
midnight and 6 am. Current indications are that snowfall amounts
will be less than 1 inch along and north of a Shelbina to Quincy
line given the relatively warm soil temperatures (Novelty Missouri
Mesonet 2 inch soil temperature is currently 50 degrees) and the
relative short amount of time that the accumulating snow will
fall. It will be windy late tonight into tomorrow as decent
gradient winds set up behind the cold front. However it does not
appear that we will hit advisory criteria at this time.

Do not expect much clearing tomorrow as forecast soundings show some
minimal CAPE in the lowest levels tomorrow afternoon suggesting some
isolated snow or rain showers will develop in the low level cyclonic
flow. Highs tomorrow are only a few degrees warmer than lows tonight.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Monday Night through Next Sunday)
Issued at 346 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

(Monday night through Wednesday)

Next notable trough that will move through the area will be on
Wednesday which the ECMWF and GFS both show light QPF across the
CWA. Have increased PoPs a bit across the area, with the highest
amounts over the northern CWA where current track of the surface
low will be. Temperatures will stay below normal during the period.

(Thursday through next Sunday)

Overall confidence in forecast during this period is not high as the
both operational GFS and ECMWF and their ensembles have had continuity
issues the past few days with the timing and strength of the troughs
that will move across the area later this week. Latest runs are showing
quasi-zonal flow during the period with shortwave troughs moving quickly
across the area. While the GFS is developing some QPF over the region
on Saturday, this is different than yesterday`s run, so will discount
for now. Will go dry during this period given the inherent difficulties
in timing precipitation in zonal flow.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 531 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Several issues to discuss for the 00z
TAF cycle. Continual new development of RA/DZ across central and
northern MO makes it less likely to see a substantial break in the
precip at KCOU and KUIN compared to farther south and east.
Conditions should remain IFR for the near future. The next area of
precipitation to affect KCOU and KUIN was associated with an
approaching cold front. The rain is expected to mix with and
change over to snow with minor accumulations possible (one-quarter
to one-half of an inch or less) between 08-13z. A significant wind
shift will accompany the front. Winds will become west to
northwest and increase to around 20 kts sustained with gusts of
30-35 kts. It is possible that instability snow showers may
develop tomorrow afternoon due to the very cold air aloft, but
confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. This
possibility will be re-examined for the 06z issuance.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Several issues to discuss for the 00z
TAF cycle. It looks like the ongoing RA/DZ will diminish over the
next few hours (vsbys should increase at least briefly), but cigs
will probably remain IFR due to the substantial low level moisture
in place. The next area of rain to affect the metro area TAF sites
is associated with an approaching cold front. It is possible that
some of the rain may mix with snow as precipitation is ending, but
confidence is too low to introduce RASN at metro area TAF sites
yet. A significant change in winds will accompany the front
between 10-14z. Winds will become west to northwest and increase
to around 15-25 kts sustained with gusts of 30-35 kts. Finally, it
is possible that instability snow showers may develop tomorrow
afternoon due to the very cold air aloft, but confidence is too
low to include in the TAF attm.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 240003
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
603 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Monday)
Issued at 346 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

Main concern for tonight will be will there be any snow accumulation
over northwestern parts of the area as rain changes to snow behind a
sharp cold front. Most of the CWA has seen rain today and the
current band which is being forced by strong moisture convergence
and strong ascent ahead of ejecting shortwave trough will move
northeast of the CWA this evening. This will cause a lull in the
precipitation this evening before a second area currently over the
Plains moves into the area later this evening and overnight. This
area is being frontogenetically forced ahead of a second trough
currently over the northern Plains. Attendant cold front that
currently extends across central Iowa into far northwest Missouri
into eastern Kansas will push eastward this evening, reaching St.
Louis by midnight and east of the CWA by 3 am. Forecast soundings
suggest that the rain will mix with and then changeover to snow
after midnight before the frontogenetical band lifts out between
midnight and 6 am. Current indications are that snowfall amounts
will be less than 1 inch along and north of a Shelbina to Quincy
line given the relatively warm soil temperatures (Novelty Missouri
Mesonet 2 inch soil temperature is currently 50 degrees) and the
relative short amount of time that the accumulating snow will
fall. It will be windy late tonight into tomorrow as decent
gradient winds set up behind the cold front. However it does not
appear that we will hit advisory criteria at this time.

Do not expect much clearing tomorrow as forecast soundings show some
minimal CAPE in the lowest levels tomorrow afternoon suggesting some
isolated snow or rain showers will develop in the low level cyclonic
flow. Highs tomorrow are only a few degrees warmer than lows tonight.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Monday Night through Next Sunday)
Issued at 346 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

(Monday night through Wednesday)

Next notable trough that will move through the area will be on
Wednesday which the ECMWF and GFS both show light QPF across the
CWA. Have increased PoPs a bit across the area, with the highest
amounts over the northern CWA where current track of the surface
low will be. Temperatures will stay below normal during the period.

(Thursday through next Sunday)

Overall confidence in forecast during this period is not high as the
both operational GFS and ECMWF and their ensembles have had continuity
issues the past few days with the timing and strength of the troughs
that will move across the area later this week. Latest runs are showing
quasi-zonal flow during the period with shortwave troughs moving quickly
across the area. While the GFS is developing some QPF over the region
on Saturday, this is different than yesterday`s run, so will discount
for now. Will go dry during this period given the inherent difficulties
in timing precipitation in zonal flow.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 531 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Several issues to discuss for the 00z
TAF cycle. Continual new development of RA/DZ across central and
northern MO makes it less likely to see a substantial break in the
precip at KCOU and KUIN compared to farther south and east.
Conditions should remain IFR for the near future. The next area of
precipitation to affect KCOU and KUIN was associated with an
approaching cold front. The rain is expected to mix with and
change over to snow with minor accumulations possible (one-quarter
to one-half of an inch or less) between 08-13z. A significant wind
shift will accompany the front. Winds will become west to
northwest and increase to around 20 kts sustained with gusts of
30-35 kts. It is possible that instability snow showers may
develop tomorrow afternoon due to the very cold air aloft, but
confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. This
possibility will be re-examined for the 06z issuance.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Several issues to discuss for the 00z
TAF cycle. It looks like the ongoing RA/DZ will diminish over the
next few hours (vsbys should increase at least briefly), but cigs
will probably remain IFR due to the substantial low level moisture
in place. The next area of rain to affect the metro area TAF sites
is associated with an approaching cold front. It is possible that
some of the rain may mix with snow as precipitation is ending, but
confidence is too low to introduce RASN at metro area TAF sites
yet. A significant change in winds will accompany the front
between 10-14z. Winds will become west to northwest and increase
to around 15-25 kts sustained with gusts of 30-35 kts. Finally, it
is possible that instability snow showers may develop tomorrow
afternoon due to the very cold air aloft, but confidence is too
low to include in the TAF attm.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KEAX 232325
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
525 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 307 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Rain showers will continue to fill in this afternoon and evening,
impacting the forecast area along and ahead of a southeastward-
moving cold front. Rainfall totals for this evening should be mainly
less than a half of an inch in most locations.

Main focus in the short term will be the potential for rain changing
over to snow overnight as a cold front pushes through the area and a
band of post-frontal precipitation pushes eastward over the falling
temperatures. Soundings begin to support snow in our far northwest
around 03z to 06z, but initially the surface warm layer will be too
thick for snow to make it to the surface. As the near-surface layer
cools, rain will begin to mix with and then eventually change over
to snow mainly between 06z and 12z tonight. Precipitation amounts
during this time are anywhere from trace to 0.20", but with the warm
temperatures ahead of the front and warm/wet surface conditions, it
will take a pretty aggressive snow rate to accumulate any snow. Have
painted an area of 0.5-0.75" snow across northeast MO where the
coldest post-frontal temperatures and highest snowfall rates are
expected as the band moves through, then have tapered snow amounts
to zero elsewhere. The post-frontal band is expected to exit the
region by 12z, then perhaps just a dusting of light snow could wrap
back into northeast MO during the late morning/afternoon hours.

Lows tonight should not drop far below freezing with the bulk of the
cold air waiting until after 12z to push into the region, but little
to no temperature rise is expected across northern MO on Monday as
cold air continues to filter in. Elsewhere, highs may recover a bit
into the lower 40s by mid afternoon.

The next system will be a quick clipper that dives from Alberta into
northeast Missouri on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Light
snow is possible across the northeastern half of the CWA with this
feature, but low moisture availability will limit potential snow
accumulations to just a few tenths of an inch.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 307 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Much of the long-term (particularly into next weekend) is plagued
spatially and temporally with model discrepancies with the GFS,
ECMWF, and the GEM struggling to agree, although the 12Z ECMWF has
come into a bit of a better agreement with the 12Z GFS as compared
to the 00Z ECMWF run. Low amplitude ridging at the 500mb level
appears to dominate much of the center of the country behind an
exiting sharp trough, according to the latest GFS and ECMWF runs
whereas the GEM brings a shortwave trough racing down from Canada
into MT/ND before phasing into a larger wave dominating over
Ontario. Regardless of which solution ends up playing out, they do
all generally agree on zonal flow aloft with ripples riding through
behind the NW flow on the backside of the aforementioned exiting
trough.

Between the GFS and the ECMWF, the GFS appears to be much more
progressive aloft and at the surface as compared to the ECMWF. High
pressure sinking south behind an exiting surface low takes hold of
the forecast area on Thursday, then quickly scoots across the Ohio
Valley, leaving the door open for a frontal boundary to sweep
through behind the high, according to the GFS. The ECMWF solution is
messier and slower and diverges significantly from the GFS at the
surface by next weekend. Taking all of this into account, have kept
the forecast area dry for this forecast period given a lack of a
clear precip-generating signal, except for the GFS that brings the
front through on Saturday, but again is low confidence given the
vastly different solutions.

With respect to temperatures, they look to remain on the cooler side
of normal through the end of the week, but again, the forecast for
the temps from late Friday onward has low confidence given the
discussed model discrepancies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 515 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Cold front has made its way through the terminals area with increased
precipitation occurring along and behind the boundary. Will see
gradually improving ceilings as drier air filters in behind the
front. Gusty NW winds look to stay in place through the forecast
period. There is a chance of a rain/snow mix overnight though will
remain short-lived with no significant accumulation expected due to
warm surface temperatures. Once the precipitation clears out low-
level scattered layer will remain in place through the forecast
period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 232325
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
525 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 307 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Rain showers will continue to fill in this afternoon and evening,
impacting the forecast area along and ahead of a southeastward-
moving cold front. Rainfall totals for this evening should be mainly
less than a half of an inch in most locations.

Main focus in the short term will be the potential for rain changing
over to snow overnight as a cold front pushes through the area and a
band of post-frontal precipitation pushes eastward over the falling
temperatures. Soundings begin to support snow in our far northwest
around 03z to 06z, but initially the surface warm layer will be too
thick for snow to make it to the surface. As the near-surface layer
cools, rain will begin to mix with and then eventually change over
to snow mainly between 06z and 12z tonight. Precipitation amounts
during this time are anywhere from trace to 0.20", but with the warm
temperatures ahead of the front and warm/wet surface conditions, it
will take a pretty aggressive snow rate to accumulate any snow. Have
painted an area of 0.5-0.75" snow across northeast MO where the
coldest post-frontal temperatures and highest snowfall rates are
expected as the band moves through, then have tapered snow amounts
to zero elsewhere. The post-frontal band is expected to exit the
region by 12z, then perhaps just a dusting of light snow could wrap
back into northeast MO during the late morning/afternoon hours.

Lows tonight should not drop far below freezing with the bulk of the
cold air waiting until after 12z to push into the region, but little
to no temperature rise is expected across northern MO on Monday as
cold air continues to filter in. Elsewhere, highs may recover a bit
into the lower 40s by mid afternoon.

The next system will be a quick clipper that dives from Alberta into
northeast Missouri on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Light
snow is possible across the northeastern half of the CWA with this
feature, but low moisture availability will limit potential snow
accumulations to just a few tenths of an inch.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 307 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Much of the long-term (particularly into next weekend) is plagued
spatially and temporally with model discrepancies with the GFS,
ECMWF, and the GEM struggling to agree, although the 12Z ECMWF has
come into a bit of a better agreement with the 12Z GFS as compared
to the 00Z ECMWF run. Low amplitude ridging at the 500mb level
appears to dominate much of the center of the country behind an
exiting sharp trough, according to the latest GFS and ECMWF runs
whereas the GEM brings a shortwave trough racing down from Canada
into MT/ND before phasing into a larger wave dominating over
Ontario. Regardless of which solution ends up playing out, they do
all generally agree on zonal flow aloft with ripples riding through
behind the NW flow on the backside of the aforementioned exiting
trough.

Between the GFS and the ECMWF, the GFS appears to be much more
progressive aloft and at the surface as compared to the ECMWF. High
pressure sinking south behind an exiting surface low takes hold of
the forecast area on Thursday, then quickly scoots across the Ohio
Valley, leaving the door open for a frontal boundary to sweep
through behind the high, according to the GFS. The ECMWF solution is
messier and slower and diverges significantly from the GFS at the
surface by next weekend. Taking all of this into account, have kept
the forecast area dry for this forecast period given a lack of a
clear precip-generating signal, except for the GFS that brings the
front through on Saturday, but again is low confidence given the
vastly different solutions.

With respect to temperatures, they look to remain on the cooler side
of normal through the end of the week, but again, the forecast for
the temps from late Friday onward has low confidence given the
discussed model discrepancies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 515 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Cold front has made its way through the terminals area with increased
precipitation occurring along and behind the boundary. Will see
gradually improving ceilings as drier air filters in behind the
front. Gusty NW winds look to stay in place through the forecast
period. There is a chance of a rain/snow mix overnight though will
remain short-lived with no significant accumulation expected due to
warm surface temperatures. Once the precipitation clears out low-
level scattered layer will remain in place through the forecast
period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KLSX 232155
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
355 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Monday)
Issued at 346 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

Main concern for tonight will be will there be any snow accumulation
over northwestern parts of the area as rain changes to snow behind a
sharp cold front. Most of the CWA has seen rain today and the
current band which is being forced by strong moisture convergence
and strong ascent ahead of ejecting shortwave trough will move
northeast of the CWA this evening. This will cause a lull in the
precipitation this evening before a second area currently over the
Plains moves into the area later this evening and overnight. This
area is being frontogenetically forced ahead of a second trough
currently over the northern Plains. Attendant cold front that
currently extends across central Iowa into far northwest Missouri
into eastern Kansas will push eastward this evening, reaching St.
Louis by midnight and east of the CWA by 3 am. Forecast soundings
suggest that the rain will mix with and then changeover to snow
after midnight before the frontogenetical band lifts out between
midnight and 6 am. Current indications are that snowfall amounts
will be less than 1 inch along and north of a Shelbina to Quincy
line given the relatively warm soil temperatures (Novelty Missouri
Mesonet 2 inch soil temperature is currently 50 degrees) and the
relative short amount of time that the accumulating snow will
fall. It will be windy late tonight into tomorrow as decent
gradient winds set up behind the cold front. However it does not
appear that we will hit advisory criteria at this time.

Do not expect much clearing tomorrow as forecast soundings show some
minimal CAPE in the lowest levels tomorrow afternoon suggesting some
isolated snow or rain showers will develop in the low level cyclonic
flow. Highs tomorrow are only a few degrees warmer than lows tonight.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Monday Night through Next Sunday)
Issued at 346 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

(Monday night through Wednesday)

Next notable trough that will move through the area will be on
Wednesday which the ECMWF and GFS both show light QPF across the
CWA. Have increased PoPs a bit across the area, with the highest
amounts over the northern CWA where current track of the surface
low will be. Temperatures will stay below normal during the period.

(Thursday through next Sunday)

Overall confidence in forecast during this period is not high as the
both operational GFS and ECMWF and their ensembles have had continuity
issues the past few days with the timing and strength of the troughs
that will move across the area later this week. Latest runs are showing
quasi-zonal flow during the period with shortwave troughs moving quickly
across the area. While the GFS is developing some QPF over the region
on Saturday, this is different than yesterday`s run, so will discount
for now. Will go dry during this period given the inherent difficulties
in timing precipitation in zonal flow.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

Widespread high-end IFR ceilings will be the rule at all TAF sites
through the day and into tonight. Visibilities may also dip into
high-end IFR range at times with heavier rain, particularly before
00Z. Surface low pressure will track just northwest of region
tonight, with winds becoming west to southwest. Arctic high
pressure then rapidly build in behind main cold front from 06Z to
12Z Monday. Remaining precipitation should mix with then change to snow
before ending at KUIN and KCOU TAF sites Monday morning, however
drier air arrives to the south over metro St. Louis area just as
temperatures get cold enough to support snow at the surface. A few
flakes may mix in there as well, but it should not be significant
so have not included in this set of TAFS. West winds will become
strong behind arctic front Monday morning and will likely gust
into the 25-30 knot range. Ceilings should improve into MVFR range
behind the front as well. As temperatures throughout the column
continue to cool during the day, some brief snowshowers are
possible Monday afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL: IFR ceilings will likely last though the
night, with periods of IFR visibilities this afternoon in pockets
of heavier rain. Main cold front moves in around 12Z Monday, but
atmosphere dries out by then in critical cloud layer cold enough
to form snow, so the precipitation should shut off by then. Post
frontal winds will be a factor, and will gust in the 25 to 30 knot
range after 12Z Monday. MVFR ceilings behind cold front will
likely last through this TAF period.

Browning

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 232155
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
355 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Monday)
Issued at 346 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

Main concern for tonight will be will there be any snow accumulation
over northwestern parts of the area as rain changes to snow behind a
sharp cold front. Most of the CWA has seen rain today and the
current band which is being forced by strong moisture convergence
and strong ascent ahead of ejecting shortwave trough will move
northeast of the CWA this evening. This will cause a lull in the
precipitation this evening before a second area currently over the
Plains moves into the area later this evening and overnight. This
area is being frontogenetically forced ahead of a second trough
currently over the northern Plains. Attendant cold front that
currently extends across central Iowa into far northwest Missouri
into eastern Kansas will push eastward this evening, reaching St.
Louis by midnight and east of the CWA by 3 am. Forecast soundings
suggest that the rain will mix with and then changeover to snow
after midnight before the frontogenetical band lifts out between
midnight and 6 am. Current indications are that snowfall amounts
will be less than 1 inch along and north of a Shelbina to Quincy
line given the relatively warm soil temperatures (Novelty Missouri
Mesonet 2 inch soil temperature is currently 50 degrees) and the
relative short amount of time that the accumulating snow will
fall. It will be windy late tonight into tomorrow as decent
gradient winds set up behind the cold front. However it does not
appear that we will hit advisory criteria at this time.

Do not expect much clearing tomorrow as forecast soundings show some
minimal CAPE in the lowest levels tomorrow afternoon suggesting some
isolated snow or rain showers will develop in the low level cyclonic
flow. Highs tomorrow are only a few degrees warmer than lows tonight.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Monday Night through Next Sunday)
Issued at 346 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

(Monday night through Wednesday)

Next notable trough that will move through the area will be on
Wednesday which the ECMWF and GFS both show light QPF across the
CWA. Have increased PoPs a bit across the area, with the highest
amounts over the northern CWA where current track of the surface
low will be. Temperatures will stay below normal during the period.

(Thursday through next Sunday)

Overall confidence in forecast during this period is not high as the
both operational GFS and ECMWF and their ensembles have had continuity
issues the past few days with the timing and strength of the troughs
that will move across the area later this week. Latest runs are showing
quasi-zonal flow during the period with shortwave troughs moving quickly
across the area. While the GFS is developing some QPF over the region
on Saturday, this is different than yesterday`s run, so will discount
for now. Will go dry during this period given the inherent difficulties
in timing precipitation in zonal flow.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

Widespread high-end IFR ceilings will be the rule at all TAF sites
through the day and into tonight. Visibilities may also dip into
high-end IFR range at times with heavier rain, particularly before
00Z. Surface low pressure will track just northwest of region
tonight, with winds becoming west to southwest. Arctic high
pressure then rapidly build in behind main cold front from 06Z to
12Z Monday. Remaining precipitation should mix with then change to snow
before ending at KUIN and KCOU TAF sites Monday morning, however
drier air arrives to the south over metro St. Louis area just as
temperatures get cold enough to support snow at the surface. A few
flakes may mix in there as well, but it should not be significant
so have not included in this set of TAFS. West winds will become
strong behind arctic front Monday morning and will likely gust
into the 25-30 knot range. Ceilings should improve into MVFR range
behind the front as well. As temperatures throughout the column
continue to cool during the day, some brief snowshowers are
possible Monday afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL: IFR ceilings will likely last though the
night, with periods of IFR visibilities this afternoon in pockets
of heavier rain. Main cold front moves in around 12Z Monday, but
atmosphere dries out by then in critical cloud layer cold enough
to form snow, so the precipitation should shut off by then. Post
frontal winds will be a factor, and will gust in the 25 to 30 knot
range after 12Z Monday. MVFR ceilings behind cold front will
likely last through this TAF period.

Browning

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 232155
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
355 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Monday)
Issued at 346 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

Main concern for tonight will be will there be any snow accumulation
over northwestern parts of the area as rain changes to snow behind a
sharp cold front. Most of the CWA has seen rain today and the
current band which is being forced by strong moisture convergence
and strong ascent ahead of ejecting shortwave trough will move
northeast of the CWA this evening. This will cause a lull in the
precipitation this evening before a second area currently over the
Plains moves into the area later this evening and overnight. This
area is being frontogenetically forced ahead of a second trough
currently over the northern Plains. Attendant cold front that
currently extends across central Iowa into far northwest Missouri
into eastern Kansas will push eastward this evening, reaching St.
Louis by midnight and east of the CWA by 3 am. Forecast soundings
suggest that the rain will mix with and then changeover to snow
after midnight before the frontogenetical band lifts out between
midnight and 6 am. Current indications are that snowfall amounts
will be less than 1 inch along and north of a Shelbina to Quincy
line given the relatively warm soil temperatures (Novelty Missouri
Mesonet 2 inch soil temperature is currently 50 degrees) and the
relative short amount of time that the accumulating snow will
fall. It will be windy late tonight into tomorrow as decent
gradient winds set up behind the cold front. However it does not
appear that we will hit advisory criteria at this time.

Do not expect much clearing tomorrow as forecast soundings show some
minimal CAPE in the lowest levels tomorrow afternoon suggesting some
isolated snow or rain showers will develop in the low level cyclonic
flow. Highs tomorrow are only a few degrees warmer than lows tonight.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Monday Night through Next Sunday)
Issued at 346 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

(Monday night through Wednesday)

Next notable trough that will move through the area will be on
Wednesday which the ECMWF and GFS both show light QPF across the
CWA. Have increased PoPs a bit across the area, with the highest
amounts over the northern CWA where current track of the surface
low will be. Temperatures will stay below normal during the period.

(Thursday through next Sunday)

Overall confidence in forecast during this period is not high as the
both operational GFS and ECMWF and their ensembles have had continuity
issues the past few days with the timing and strength of the troughs
that will move across the area later this week. Latest runs are showing
quasi-zonal flow during the period with shortwave troughs moving quickly
across the area. While the GFS is developing some QPF over the region
on Saturday, this is different than yesterday`s run, so will discount
for now. Will go dry during this period given the inherent difficulties
in timing precipitation in zonal flow.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

Widespread high-end IFR ceilings will be the rule at all TAF sites
through the day and into tonight. Visibilities may also dip into
high-end IFR range at times with heavier rain, particularly before
00Z. Surface low pressure will track just northwest of region
tonight, with winds becoming west to southwest. Arctic high
pressure then rapidly build in behind main cold front from 06Z to
12Z Monday. Remaining precipitation should mix with then change to snow
before ending at KUIN and KCOU TAF sites Monday morning, however
drier air arrives to the south over metro St. Louis area just as
temperatures get cold enough to support snow at the surface. A few
flakes may mix in there as well, but it should not be significant
so have not included in this set of TAFS. West winds will become
strong behind arctic front Monday morning and will likely gust
into the 25-30 knot range. Ceilings should improve into MVFR range
behind the front as well. As temperatures throughout the column
continue to cool during the day, some brief snowshowers are
possible Monday afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL: IFR ceilings will likely last though the
night, with periods of IFR visibilities this afternoon in pockets
of heavier rain. Main cold front moves in around 12Z Monday, but
atmosphere dries out by then in critical cloud layer cold enough
to form snow, so the precipitation should shut off by then. Post
frontal winds will be a factor, and will gust in the 25 to 30 knot
range after 12Z Monday. MVFR ceilings behind cold front will
likely last through this TAF period.

Browning

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 232109
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
309 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 307 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Rain showers will continue to fill in this afternoon and evening,
impacting the forecast area along and ahead of a southeastward-
moving cold front. Rainfall totals for this evening should be mainly
less than a half of an inch in most locations.

Main focus in the short term will be the potential for rain changing
over to snow overnight as a cold front pushes through the area and a
band of post-frontal precipitation pushes eastward over the falling
temperatures. Soundings begin to support snow in our far northwest
around 03z to 06z, but initially the surface warm layer will be too
thick for snow to make it to the surface. As the near-surface layer
cools, rain will begin to mix with and then eventually change over
to snow mainly between 06z and 12z tonight. Precipitation amounts
during this time are anywhere from trace to 0.20", but with the warm
temperatures ahead of the front and warm/wet surface conditions, it
will take a pretty aggressive snow rate to accumulate any snow. Have
painted an area of 0.5-0.75" snow across northeast MO where the
coldest post-frontal temperatures and highest snowfall rates are
expected as the band moves through, then have tapered snow amounts
to zero elsewhere. The post-frontal band is expected to exit the
region by 12z, then perhaps just a dusting of light snow could wrap
back into northeast MO during the late morning/afternoon hours.

Lows tonight should not drop far below freezing with the bulk of the
cold air waiting until after 12z to push into the region, but little
to no temperature rise is expected across northern MO on Monday as
cold air continues to filter in. Elsewhere, highs may recover a bit
into the lower 40s by mid afternoon.

The next system will be a quick clipper that dives from Alberta into
northeast Missouri on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Light
snow is possible across the northeastern half of the CWA with this
feature, but low moisture availability will limit potential snow
accumulations to just a few tenths of an inch.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 307 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Much of the long-term (particularly into next weekend) is plagued
spatially and temporally with model discrepancies with the GFS,
ECMWF, and the GEM struggling to agree, although the 12Z ECMWF has
come into a bit of a better agreement with the 12Z GFS as compared
to the 00Z ECMWF run. Low amplitude ridging at the 500mb level
appears to dominate much of the center of the country behind an
exiting sharp trough, according to the latest GFS and ECMWF runs
whereas the GEM brings a shortwave trough racing down from Canada
into MT/ND before phasing into a larger wave dominating over
Ontario. Regardless of which solution ends up playing out, they do
all generally agree on zonal flow aloft with ripples riding through
behind the NW flow on the backside of the aforementioned exiting
trough.

Between the GFS and the ECMWF, the GFS appears to be much more
progressive aloft and at the surface as compared to the ECMWF. High
pressure sinking south behind an exiting surface low takes hold of
the forecast area on Thursday, then quickly scoots across the Ohio
Valley, leaving the door open for a frontal boundary to sweep
through behind the high, according to the GFS. The ECMWF solution is
messier and slower and diverges significantly from the GFS at the
surface by next weekend. Taking all of this into account, have kept
the forecast area dry for this forecast period given a lack of a
clear precip-generating signal, except for the GFS that brings the
front through on Saturday, but again is low confidence given the
vastly different solutions.

With respect to temperatures, they look to remain on the cooler side
of normal through the end of the week, but again, the forecast for
the temps from late Friday onward has low confidence given the
discussed model discrepancies.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Ceilings will continue to bounce between IFR and MVFR this afternoon
ahead of an approaching cold front. A few showers are possible, but
should be isolated and light. As the front sweeps through all TAF
sites between 22z-00z, rain will become more likely and ceilings are
expected to settle around 1500-1800 ft. Rain will start to diminish
and ceilings will gradually lift to between 2500-3000 ft overnight,
eventually becoming VFR on Monday morning. A very brief rain/snow mix
is possible at all terminals after 03z, but no snow accumulation is
expected and visibilities will be only temporarily reduced. Winds
will veer sharply to the northwest behind the front, reaching speeds
of 15 to 25 kts with gusts up to 35 kts, and will remain breezy
through Monday.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KEAX 232109
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
309 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 307 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Rain showers will continue to fill in this afternoon and evening,
impacting the forecast area along and ahead of a southeastward-
moving cold front. Rainfall totals for this evening should be mainly
less than a half of an inch in most locations.

Main focus in the short term will be the potential for rain changing
over to snow overnight as a cold front pushes through the area and a
band of post-frontal precipitation pushes eastward over the falling
temperatures. Soundings begin to support snow in our far northwest
around 03z to 06z, but initially the surface warm layer will be too
thick for snow to make it to the surface. As the near-surface layer
cools, rain will begin to mix with and then eventually change over
to snow mainly between 06z and 12z tonight. Precipitation amounts
during this time are anywhere from trace to 0.20", but with the warm
temperatures ahead of the front and warm/wet surface conditions, it
will take a pretty aggressive snow rate to accumulate any snow. Have
painted an area of 0.5-0.75" snow across northeast MO where the
coldest post-frontal temperatures and highest snowfall rates are
expected as the band moves through, then have tapered snow amounts
to zero elsewhere. The post-frontal band is expected to exit the
region by 12z, then perhaps just a dusting of light snow could wrap
back into northeast MO during the late morning/afternoon hours.

Lows tonight should not drop far below freezing with the bulk of the
cold air waiting until after 12z to push into the region, but little
to no temperature rise is expected across northern MO on Monday as
cold air continues to filter in. Elsewhere, highs may recover a bit
into the lower 40s by mid afternoon.

The next system will be a quick clipper that dives from Alberta into
northeast Missouri on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Light
snow is possible across the northeastern half of the CWA with this
feature, but low moisture availability will limit potential snow
accumulations to just a few tenths of an inch.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 307 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Much of the long-term (particularly into next weekend) is plagued
spatially and temporally with model discrepancies with the GFS,
ECMWF, and the GEM struggling to agree, although the 12Z ECMWF has
come into a bit of a better agreement with the 12Z GFS as compared
to the 00Z ECMWF run. Low amplitude ridging at the 500mb level
appears to dominate much of the center of the country behind an
exiting sharp trough, according to the latest GFS and ECMWF runs
whereas the GEM brings a shortwave trough racing down from Canada
into MT/ND before phasing into a larger wave dominating over
Ontario. Regardless of which solution ends up playing out, they do
all generally agree on zonal flow aloft with ripples riding through
behind the NW flow on the backside of the aforementioned exiting
trough.

Between the GFS and the ECMWF, the GFS appears to be much more
progressive aloft and at the surface as compared to the ECMWF. High
pressure sinking south behind an exiting surface low takes hold of
the forecast area on Thursday, then quickly scoots across the Ohio
Valley, leaving the door open for a frontal boundary to sweep
through behind the high, according to the GFS. The ECMWF solution is
messier and slower and diverges significantly from the GFS at the
surface by next weekend. Taking all of this into account, have kept
the forecast area dry for this forecast period given a lack of a
clear precip-generating signal, except for the GFS that brings the
front through on Saturday, but again is low confidence given the
vastly different solutions.

With respect to temperatures, they look to remain on the cooler side
of normal through the end of the week, but again, the forecast for
the temps from late Friday onward has low confidence given the
discussed model discrepancies.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Ceilings will continue to bounce between IFR and MVFR this afternoon
ahead of an approaching cold front. A few showers are possible, but
should be isolated and light. As the front sweeps through all TAF
sites between 22z-00z, rain will become more likely and ceilings are
expected to settle around 1500-1800 ft. Rain will start to diminish
and ceilings will gradually lift to between 2500-3000 ft overnight,
eventually becoming VFR on Monday morning. A very brief rain/snow mix
is possible at all terminals after 03z, but no snow accumulation is
expected and visibilities will be only temporarily reduced. Winds
will veer sharply to the northwest behind the front, reaching speeds
of 15 to 25 kts with gusts up to 35 kts, and will remain breezy
through Monday.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...Laflin






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KSGF 232043
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
243 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

...Turning Windy and Colder Tonight and Tomorrow...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A surface low pressure was currently near Tulsa and slowly
deepening. A strong cold front was currently moving southeast
stretching from near Kansas City to Ponca. This front will move
quickly through the area this evening. The surface low pressure
will move northeastward across the Missouri Ozarks tonight.

Additional showers will be likely tonight and maybe a rumble of
thunder this evening with some elevated instability. No severe
weather is expected. Additional rainfall for tonight will be
between a tenth and a quarter of an inch possible with the higher
amounts near central Missouri.

Models still indicate that maybe just enough cold air in the mid
levels may allow some of the rain showers to mix with or briefly
change over to wet snow. Surface temperatures will be above
freezing in the middle to upper 30s and ground temperatures are warm in
the 40s. The best potential to see a little rain/snow mix will be
along and north of I-44 late tonight before the precip exits the
area. The could be a brief light dusting of wet snow on grassy
areas along and north of Highway 54 across central Missouri. But
again...no impacts are expected from the wet snow.

Winds will be very gusty tonight and tomorrow. Winds will be
sustained 20 to 25 mph with wind gusts up to 40 mph likely tonight
and tomorrow. This will be just shy of wind advisory criteria but
something to keep an eye on. Much colder weather returns for
Monday with clouds slowly trying to clear out and highs in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A sharp trough across the Great Lakes Region into the south
central portion of the U.S. will keep the weather pattern below
average for the early part of this week. There will be a gradual
moderation of temperatures by the middle of the week. Another
shortwave moves across the Midwest on Wednesday and bring another
dry cold front and reinforce the cool and dry weather pattern.
Travelers will have fair weather for traveling on Wednesday.
Thanksgiving will be sunny and seasonable cool. The upper level
pattern flattens by the end of the week and weekend. This will
bring a moderation of temperatures with temperatures closer to
seasonable averages and no precip in the forecast at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Yet another complex and challenging forecast for area aerodromes.
Brunt of rainfall has shifted east of the aerodromes this morning
and for much of the afternoon, IFR stratus will lift to MVFR with
patchy drizzle around. Later this afternoon, the cold front to our
northwest will move into the region and increase rain chances from
northwest to southeast across the area. Still cannot rule out a
rumble or two of thunder from 21z to 03z along the front. Cold
front will arrive this evening at all TAF sites and winds will
abruptly shift to the west/northwest. Wind speeds and gusts will
be strong this evening and this will be something to monitor
closely. Rain will exit to the northeast after midnight. There
remains a brief window of opportunity for rain to mix with or
change over to snow. With temperatures in the mid 30s, impacts are
not expected. Stratus (IFR to low end MVFR) will linger into
Monday morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 232043
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
243 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

...Turning Windy and Colder Tonight and Tomorrow...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A surface low pressure was currently near Tulsa and slowly
deepening. A strong cold front was currently moving southeast
stretching from near Kansas City to Ponca. This front will move
quickly through the area this evening. The surface low pressure
will move northeastward across the Missouri Ozarks tonight.

Additional showers will be likely tonight and maybe a rumble of
thunder this evening with some elevated instability. No severe
weather is expected. Additional rainfall for tonight will be
between a tenth and a quarter of an inch possible with the higher
amounts near central Missouri.

Models still indicate that maybe just enough cold air in the mid
levels may allow some of the rain showers to mix with or briefly
change over to wet snow. Surface temperatures will be above
freezing in the middle to upper 30s and ground temperatures are warm in
the 40s. The best potential to see a little rain/snow mix will be
along and north of I-44 late tonight before the precip exits the
area. The could be a brief light dusting of wet snow on grassy
areas along and north of Highway 54 across central Missouri. But
again...no impacts are expected from the wet snow.

Winds will be very gusty tonight and tomorrow. Winds will be
sustained 20 to 25 mph with wind gusts up to 40 mph likely tonight
and tomorrow. This will be just shy of wind advisory criteria but
something to keep an eye on. Much colder weather returns for
Monday with clouds slowly trying to clear out and highs in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A sharp trough across the Great Lakes Region into the south
central portion of the U.S. will keep the weather pattern below
average for the early part of this week. There will be a gradual
moderation of temperatures by the middle of the week. Another
shortwave moves across the Midwest on Wednesday and bring another
dry cold front and reinforce the cool and dry weather pattern.
Travelers will have fair weather for traveling on Wednesday.
Thanksgiving will be sunny and seasonable cool. The upper level
pattern flattens by the end of the week and weekend. This will
bring a moderation of temperatures with temperatures closer to
seasonable averages and no precip in the forecast at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Yet another complex and challenging forecast for area aerodromes.
Brunt of rainfall has shifted east of the aerodromes this morning
and for much of the afternoon, IFR stratus will lift to MVFR with
patchy drizzle around. Later this afternoon, the cold front to our
northwest will move into the region and increase rain chances from
northwest to southeast across the area. Still cannot rule out a
rumble or two of thunder from 21z to 03z along the front. Cold
front will arrive this evening at all TAF sites and winds will
abruptly shift to the west/northwest. Wind speeds and gusts will
be strong this evening and this will be something to monitor
closely. Rain will exit to the northeast after midnight. There
remains a brief window of opportunity for rain to mix with or
change over to snow. With temperatures in the mid 30s, impacts are
not expected. Stratus (IFR to low end MVFR) will linger into
Monday morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KLSX 231755
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1155 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 331 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

Surface low to begin lifting northeastward towards forecast area
today. Will see showers on the increase this morning and spread
north across the region. Some instability today so there is a chance
of thunderstorms mainly along and south of I-70.  As for
temperatures, will depend on cloud cover and rainfall. But feel that
temps will rise into the mid 50s to low 60s by this afternoon.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 331 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

(Tonight-Wednesday)

While specific precip trends are certainly tricky tonight and into
Monday, latest synoptic and hi-res guidance suggests the general
scenario will be that this afternoon`s band of rain and embedded
thunderstorms will rotate east out of the area this evening, as
additional precip begins to form to our west as secondary shortwave
drops south in the wake of today`s system.  This secondary area of
precip should then wind down to spotty areas of light rain/light
snow during the day on Monday.

Yesterday`s guidance as well as 00z model output is now suggesting
more precip lingering in the cold air late tonight and early Monday
than was indicated by earlier runs.  I have not made any major
changes to the timing of the changeover from rain to snow over the
northwest half of the CWA in the 06-12z time frame; this may be a
bit too fast, but didn`t want to discount the intensity of the
CAA. In the far NW counties, it appears that this strong CAA will
cause freezing levels to drop enough to support the rain changing
over to all snow for a few hours late tonight and into early
Monday morning, and based on this have added some minor accumulations
of under an inch in our extreme northwest counties.

Min/max temps for tonight/Monday will be based on non-diurnal, 3
hourly temp trends during this time frame.

No major changes in going forecast trends heading into midweek, with
dry and chlly weather on Tuesday followed by a brief warmup and low
PoPs for the fast-moving, moisture-starved system on Wednesday.

(Thursday-Saturday)

Medium range guidance has come into better agreement with a less
amplified solution for Thanksgiving Day, suggesting a ribbon of
light precip over northern sections of the CWA as shortwave
interacts with baroclinicity that is draped across the region.
Pattern suggests that there should be a strong temperature
gradient from north to south across the region, with highs in the
30s over the cold air in the north while approaching 50 in the
warmer air over southern sections of the CWA.

This agreement jumps the tracks heading into the latter half of the
week, with GEM and ECMWF forecasting broad trofing over the central
CONUS while the GFS maintains a more quasi-zonal look.  Of course,
given the intensity of the baroclinic zone this somewhat subtle
difference will make a huge impact on sensible weather trends, and
especially on temperatures.  This discrepency can be seen in the
surface prog forecasts for Friday morning; ECMWF and GEM have broad
and cold Canadian high over the plains and into the upper
Mississippi Valley with north/northeast winds over our FA, while GFS
as surface low over the northern plains and southerly winds over our
area.  MOS guidance based on these solutions offer a more
quanitative and stark measure of this discrepency...a whopping
20-25 degree difference on Friday`s highs between the colder
ECMWF and warmer GFS. For now have maintained earlier (colder)
trends, based on consensus of GEM and ECMEF.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

Widespread high-end IFR ceilings will be the rule at all TAF sites
through the day and into tonight. Visibilities may also dip into
high-end IFR range at times with heavier rain, particularly before
00Z. Surface low pressure will track just northwest of region
tonight, with winds becoming west to southwest. Arctic high
pressure then rapidly build in behind main cold front from 06Z to
12Z Monday. Remaining precipitation should mix with then change to snow
before ending at KUIN and KCOU TAF sites Monday morning, however
drier air arrives to the south over metro St. Louis area just as
temperatures get cold enough to support snow at the surface. A few
flakes may mix in there as well, but it should not be significant
so have not included in this set of TAFS. West winds will become
strong behind arctic front Monday morning and will likely gust
into the 25-30 knot range. Ceilings should improve into MVFR range
behind the front as well. As temperatures throughout the column
continue to cool during the day, some brief snowshowers are
possible Monday afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL: IFR ceilings will likely last though the
night, with periods of IFR visibilities this afternoon in pockets
of heavier rain. Main cold front moves in around 12Z Monday, but
atmosphere dries out by then in critical cloud layer cold enough
to form snow, so the precipitation should shut off by then. Post
frontal winds will be a factor, and will gust in the 25 to 30 knot
range after 12Z Monday. MVFR ceilings behind cold front will
likely last through this TAF period.

Browning

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 231755
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1155 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 331 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

Surface low to begin lifting northeastward towards forecast area
today. Will see showers on the increase this morning and spread
north across the region. Some instability today so there is a chance
of thunderstorms mainly along and south of I-70.  As for
temperatures, will depend on cloud cover and rainfall. But feel that
temps will rise into the mid 50s to low 60s by this afternoon.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 331 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

(Tonight-Wednesday)

While specific precip trends are certainly tricky tonight and into
Monday, latest synoptic and hi-res guidance suggests the general
scenario will be that this afternoon`s band of rain and embedded
thunderstorms will rotate east out of the area this evening, as
additional precip begins to form to our west as secondary shortwave
drops south in the wake of today`s system.  This secondary area of
precip should then wind down to spotty areas of light rain/light
snow during the day on Monday.

Yesterday`s guidance as well as 00z model output is now suggesting
more precip lingering in the cold air late tonight and early Monday
than was indicated by earlier runs.  I have not made any major
changes to the timing of the changeover from rain to snow over the
northwest half of the CWA in the 06-12z time frame; this may be a
bit too fast, but didn`t want to discount the intensity of the
CAA. In the far NW counties, it appears that this strong CAA will
cause freezing levels to drop enough to support the rain changing
over to all snow for a few hours late tonight and into early
Monday morning, and based on this have added some minor accumulations
of under an inch in our extreme northwest counties.

Min/max temps for tonight/Monday will be based on non-diurnal, 3
hourly temp trends during this time frame.

No major changes in going forecast trends heading into midweek, with
dry and chlly weather on Tuesday followed by a brief warmup and low
PoPs for the fast-moving, moisture-starved system on Wednesday.

(Thursday-Saturday)

Medium range guidance has come into better agreement with a less
amplified solution for Thanksgiving Day, suggesting a ribbon of
light precip over northern sections of the CWA as shortwave
interacts with baroclinicity that is draped across the region.
Pattern suggests that there should be a strong temperature
gradient from north to south across the region, with highs in the
30s over the cold air in the north while approaching 50 in the
warmer air over southern sections of the CWA.

This agreement jumps the tracks heading into the latter half of the
week, with GEM and ECMWF forecasting broad trofing over the central
CONUS while the GFS maintains a more quasi-zonal look.  Of course,
given the intensity of the baroclinic zone this somewhat subtle
difference will make a huge impact on sensible weather trends, and
especially on temperatures.  This discrepency can be seen in the
surface prog forecasts for Friday morning; ECMWF and GEM have broad
and cold Canadian high over the plains and into the upper
Mississippi Valley with north/northeast winds over our FA, while GFS
as surface low over the northern plains and southerly winds over our
area.  MOS guidance based on these solutions offer a more
quanitative and stark measure of this discrepency...a whopping
20-25 degree difference on Friday`s highs between the colder
ECMWF and warmer GFS. For now have maintained earlier (colder)
trends, based on consensus of GEM and ECMEF.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

Widespread high-end IFR ceilings will be the rule at all TAF sites
through the day and into tonight. Visibilities may also dip into
high-end IFR range at times with heavier rain, particularly before
00Z. Surface low pressure will track just northwest of region
tonight, with winds becoming west to southwest. Arctic high
pressure then rapidly build in behind main cold front from 06Z to
12Z Monday. Remaining precipitation should mix with then change to snow
before ending at KUIN and KCOU TAF sites Monday morning, however
drier air arrives to the south over metro St. Louis area just as
temperatures get cold enough to support snow at the surface. A few
flakes may mix in there as well, but it should not be significant
so have not included in this set of TAFS. West winds will become
strong behind arctic front Monday morning and will likely gust
into the 25-30 knot range. Ceilings should improve into MVFR range
behind the front as well. As temperatures throughout the column
continue to cool during the day, some brief snowshowers are
possible Monday afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL: IFR ceilings will likely last though the
night, with periods of IFR visibilities this afternoon in pockets
of heavier rain. Main cold front moves in around 12Z Monday, but
atmosphere dries out by then in critical cloud layer cold enough
to form snow, so the precipitation should shut off by then. Post
frontal winds will be a factor, and will gust in the 25 to 30 knot
range after 12Z Monday. MVFR ceilings behind cold front will
likely last through this TAF period.

Browning

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 231735
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1135 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Another day of cloudy wet conditions, but a cold front sweeping
through tonight could bring some snow. Water vapor imagery this
morning shows a couple of interacting shortwave troughs across the
middle of the Nation, with the first along the Gulf Coast and the
second digging into the Plains States as it transits the Rocky
Mountains. The general scenario is that the Gulf Coast trough will
lift northeast today into the Ohio River Valley ahead of the
second trough. This will likely result in periods of rain across
areas of Missouri today, with morning radar imagery starting to
verify this potential early this morning. Temperatures will be more
than sufficiently warm enough to keep all precipitation during the
daylight hours liquid. However, as the secondary trough moves into
and deepens across the Plains States it will help quickly shove a
cold front into and through Missouri this afternoon through tonight.
Models are consistent in advertising decent deformation shield
precipitation on the back side of these two interacting troughs late
today and through the overnight hours. Thus, have adjust POPs to keep
categorical and likely probabilities going well into the overnight
hours. This in turn brings to the forefront the issue of
precipitation type as the potential for precipitation occurring as
temperatures cool within the atmospheric column are starting to look
good, though only for the early morning hours of Monday. This
deformation zone might be able to squeeze out anything from a half
into to an inch and a half across areas of north central to northeast
Missouri, with light accumulations sneaking as far south as eastern
suburbs of Kansas City before sunrise. Ultimately, snowfall totals
should be rather low owing to warm conditions before the onset of the
cooler temperatures, but it might be sufficient to make for a quick
bout of slick roads Monday morning. Otherwise, of note for late
tonight into Monday will be the strong winds. Strong and gusty
northwest winds will move in behind the front today, which will keep
the wind up and gusting overnight. Currently, expectations for wind
speeds behind the front this afternoon and tonight fall short of wind
advisory criteria, but this will need reevaluation through the day.

Well, after the relatively warm weekend the work week will be
decidedly cooler, though not record breaking unlike some of our days
last week. The broad trough expected to develop and transit the
central CONUS this week will keep temperatures running below normal,
but the troughs quick transit east will allow a flattened flow to
develop later in the work week so temperatures wont be arctic cold.
Another issue to watch for later in the week will be a quick
shortwave trough in the northwest flow advertised for Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Currently, the system looks like a bit of clipper, so
much of its focus will likely be to our north and east given its
current advertised trajectory.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Ceilings will continue to bounce between IFR and MVFR this afternoon
ahead of an approaching cold front. A few showers are possible, but
should be isolated and light. As the front sweeps through all TAF
sites between 22z-00z, rain will become more likely and ceilings are
expected to settle around 1500-1800 ft. Rain will start to diminish
and ceilings will gradually lift to between 2500-3000 ft overnight,
eventually becoming VFR on Monday morning. A very brief rain/snow mix
is possible at all terminals after 03z, but no snow accumulation is
expected and visibilities will be only temporarily reduced. Winds
will veer sharply to the northwest behind the front, reaching speeds
of 15 to 25 kts with gusts up to 35 kts, and will remain breezy
through Monday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KSGF 231734 AAB
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1134 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1041 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Forecast updated to account for latest radar trends. Dry slot has
worked its way a little further east than originally anticipated,
shunting the best axis of rainfall across the eastern Ozarks. The
rest of the area remains under widespread stratus and patchy
drizzle. The storm system is maturing, thus the dry slot will
continue to work its way east heading into this afternoon. That
said, combination of upper support and mid level frontogenesis
will instigate a large area of light rainfall to our northwest.
This will shift southeastward into the area this afternoon
(getting as far south as a Rolla/Springfield/Cassville line). As a
result, rain chances will increase later this afternoon into this
evening for the northwest half of the area.

In addition, there short range models continue to suggest enough
MUCAPE to support a slight chance for thunder ahead of the
incoming cold front. The window of opportunity for thunder has
been contracted a bit, to mainly between 2 PM and 9 PM. The cold
front will make steady progress into the area into the overnight
hours, leading to a short window of opportunity for a brief period
of a rain/snow mix. We will be refining this risk with the
incoming 12z model output, but flakes will be possible
along/northwest of the I-44 corridor. Any accumulation may be a
bit tough as below freezing surface temperatures do not look to
arrive until after precipitation stops. That said, it will be
nighttime and a light dusting on grassy areas is not out of the
question in central Missouri.

Another thing to keep an eye out for this evening is winds.
Surface low pressure will ride northeast up the front as it moves
through the area this evening. The resultant increase in pressure
gradient will result in a period with sustained northwest winds of
25mph and gusts to around 40mph. Not quite getting to advisory
levels, but not far off either.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Most locations remained dry overnight as a storm system continued
to approach the Ozarks region from the west. Eventually this
feature will force showers as early as this morning, and expand in
areal coverage throughout the day. We think most locations will
experience measurable rain this morning or this afternoon.

Perhaps better rain coverage will occur tonight as a cold front
sweeps through the area. There is a chance that some light snow
could mix with rain at times, particularly along and north of the
Interstate 44 corridor. The change over to some snow would not
occur until late in the evening or after midnight.

As of now we are not forecasting any accumulations, but the day
shift will need to take another look at this potential. The one
ingredient holding back slam dunk snow accumulation is
temperature, which may stay warm enough to mitigate
accumulations.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

Precipitation will exit the Ozarks early Monday morning, beginning
an extended period of dry weather.

Deep northwest flow will overcome much of the nation`s mid section
through the entire upcoming work week. This pattern will shut down
the Gulf of Mexico, while keeping temperatures slightly cooler
than normal for late November.

Look for temperatures in the 40s on an afternoon basis through
Saturday, with overnight lows in the 20s and 30s.

No precipitation is forecasted from Monday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Yet another complex and challenging forecast for area aerodromes.
Brunt of rainfall has shifted east of the aerodromes this morning
and for much of the afternoon, IFR stratus will lift to MVFR with
patchy drizzle around. Later this afternoon, the cold front to our
northwest will move into the region and increase rain chances from
northwest to southeast across the area. Still cannot rule out a
rumble or two of thunder from 21z to 03z along the front. Cold
front will arrive this evening at all TAF sites and winds will
abruptly shift to the west/northwest. Wind speeds and gusts will
be strong this evening and this will be something to monitor
closely. Rain will exit to the northeast after midnight. There
remains a brief window of opportunity for rain to mix with or
change over to snow. With temperatures in the mid 30s, impacts are
not expected. Stratus (IFR to low end MVFR) will linger into
Monday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 231734 AAB
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1134 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1041 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Forecast updated to account for latest radar trends. Dry slot has
worked its way a little further east than originally anticipated,
shunting the best axis of rainfall across the eastern Ozarks. The
rest of the area remains under widespread stratus and patchy
drizzle. The storm system is maturing, thus the dry slot will
continue to work its way east heading into this afternoon. That
said, combination of upper support and mid level frontogenesis
will instigate a large area of light rainfall to our northwest.
This will shift southeastward into the area this afternoon
(getting as far south as a Rolla/Springfield/Cassville line). As a
result, rain chances will increase later this afternoon into this
evening for the northwest half of the area.

In addition, there short range models continue to suggest enough
MUCAPE to support a slight chance for thunder ahead of the
incoming cold front. The window of opportunity for thunder has
been contracted a bit, to mainly between 2 PM and 9 PM. The cold
front will make steady progress into the area into the overnight
hours, leading to a short window of opportunity for a brief period
of a rain/snow mix. We will be refining this risk with the
incoming 12z model output, but flakes will be possible
along/northwest of the I-44 corridor. Any accumulation may be a
bit tough as below freezing surface temperatures do not look to
arrive until after precipitation stops. That said, it will be
nighttime and a light dusting on grassy areas is not out of the
question in central Missouri.

Another thing to keep an eye out for this evening is winds.
Surface low pressure will ride northeast up the front as it moves
through the area this evening. The resultant increase in pressure
gradient will result in a period with sustained northwest winds of
25mph and gusts to around 40mph. Not quite getting to advisory
levels, but not far off either.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Most locations remained dry overnight as a storm system continued
to approach the Ozarks region from the west. Eventually this
feature will force showers as early as this morning, and expand in
areal coverage throughout the day. We think most locations will
experience measurable rain this morning or this afternoon.

Perhaps better rain coverage will occur tonight as a cold front
sweeps through the area. There is a chance that some light snow
could mix with rain at times, particularly along and north of the
Interstate 44 corridor. The change over to some snow would not
occur until late in the evening or after midnight.

As of now we are not forecasting any accumulations, but the day
shift will need to take another look at this potential. The one
ingredient holding back slam dunk snow accumulation is
temperature, which may stay warm enough to mitigate
accumulations.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

Precipitation will exit the Ozarks early Monday morning, beginning
an extended period of dry weather.

Deep northwest flow will overcome much of the nation`s mid section
through the entire upcoming work week. This pattern will shut down
the Gulf of Mexico, while keeping temperatures slightly cooler
than normal for late November.

Look for temperatures in the 40s on an afternoon basis through
Saturday, with overnight lows in the 20s and 30s.

No precipitation is forecasted from Monday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Yet another complex and challenging forecast for area aerodromes.
Brunt of rainfall has shifted east of the aerodromes this morning
and for much of the afternoon, IFR stratus will lift to MVFR with
patchy drizzle around. Later this afternoon, the cold front to our
northwest will move into the region and increase rain chances from
northwest to southeast across the area. Still cannot rule out a
rumble or two of thunder from 21z to 03z along the front. Cold
front will arrive this evening at all TAF sites and winds will
abruptly shift to the west/northwest. Wind speeds and gusts will
be strong this evening and this will be something to monitor
closely. Rain will exit to the northeast after midnight. There
remains a brief window of opportunity for rain to mix with or
change over to snow. With temperatures in the mid 30s, impacts are
not expected. Stratus (IFR to low end MVFR) will linger into
Monday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 231734 AAB
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1134 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1041 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Forecast updated to account for latest radar trends. Dry slot has
worked its way a little further east than originally anticipated,
shunting the best axis of rainfall across the eastern Ozarks. The
rest of the area remains under widespread stratus and patchy
drizzle. The storm system is maturing, thus the dry slot will
continue to work its way east heading into this afternoon. That
said, combination of upper support and mid level frontogenesis
will instigate a large area of light rainfall to our northwest.
This will shift southeastward into the area this afternoon
(getting as far south as a Rolla/Springfield/Cassville line). As a
result, rain chances will increase later this afternoon into this
evening for the northwest half of the area.

In addition, there short range models continue to suggest enough
MUCAPE to support a slight chance for thunder ahead of the
incoming cold front. The window of opportunity for thunder has
been contracted a bit, to mainly between 2 PM and 9 PM. The cold
front will make steady progress into the area into the overnight
hours, leading to a short window of opportunity for a brief period
of a rain/snow mix. We will be refining this risk with the
incoming 12z model output, but flakes will be possible
along/northwest of the I-44 corridor. Any accumulation may be a
bit tough as below freezing surface temperatures do not look to
arrive until after precipitation stops. That said, it will be
nighttime and a light dusting on grassy areas is not out of the
question in central Missouri.

Another thing to keep an eye out for this evening is winds.
Surface low pressure will ride northeast up the front as it moves
through the area this evening. The resultant increase in pressure
gradient will result in a period with sustained northwest winds of
25mph and gusts to around 40mph. Not quite getting to advisory
levels, but not far off either.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Most locations remained dry overnight as a storm system continued
to approach the Ozarks region from the west. Eventually this
feature will force showers as early as this morning, and expand in
areal coverage throughout the day. We think most locations will
experience measurable rain this morning or this afternoon.

Perhaps better rain coverage will occur tonight as a cold front
sweeps through the area. There is a chance that some light snow
could mix with rain at times, particularly along and north of the
Interstate 44 corridor. The change over to some snow would not
occur until late in the evening or after midnight.

As of now we are not forecasting any accumulations, but the day
shift will need to take another look at this potential. The one
ingredient holding back slam dunk snow accumulation is
temperature, which may stay warm enough to mitigate
accumulations.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

Precipitation will exit the Ozarks early Monday morning, beginning
an extended period of dry weather.

Deep northwest flow will overcome much of the nation`s mid section
through the entire upcoming work week. This pattern will shut down
the Gulf of Mexico, while keeping temperatures slightly cooler
than normal for late November.

Look for temperatures in the 40s on an afternoon basis through
Saturday, with overnight lows in the 20s and 30s.

No precipitation is forecasted from Monday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Yet another complex and challenging forecast for area aerodromes.
Brunt of rainfall has shifted east of the aerodromes this morning
and for much of the afternoon, IFR stratus will lift to MVFR with
patchy drizzle around. Later this afternoon, the cold front to our
northwest will move into the region and increase rain chances from
northwest to southeast across the area. Still cannot rule out a
rumble or two of thunder from 21z to 03z along the front. Cold
front will arrive this evening at all TAF sites and winds will
abruptly shift to the west/northwest. Wind speeds and gusts will
be strong this evening and this will be something to monitor
closely. Rain will exit to the northeast after midnight. There
remains a brief window of opportunity for rain to mix with or
change over to snow. With temperatures in the mid 30s, impacts are
not expected. Stratus (IFR to low end MVFR) will linger into
Monday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 231734 AAB
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1134 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1041 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Forecast updated to account for latest radar trends. Dry slot has
worked its way a little further east than originally anticipated,
shunting the best axis of rainfall across the eastern Ozarks. The
rest of the area remains under widespread stratus and patchy
drizzle. The storm system is maturing, thus the dry slot will
continue to work its way east heading into this afternoon. That
said, combination of upper support and mid level frontogenesis
will instigate a large area of light rainfall to our northwest.
This will shift southeastward into the area this afternoon
(getting as far south as a Rolla/Springfield/Cassville line). As a
result, rain chances will increase later this afternoon into this
evening for the northwest half of the area.

In addition, there short range models continue to suggest enough
MUCAPE to support a slight chance for thunder ahead of the
incoming cold front. The window of opportunity for thunder has
been contracted a bit, to mainly between 2 PM and 9 PM. The cold
front will make steady progress into the area into the overnight
hours, leading to a short window of opportunity for a brief period
of a rain/snow mix. We will be refining this risk with the
incoming 12z model output, but flakes will be possible
along/northwest of the I-44 corridor. Any accumulation may be a
bit tough as below freezing surface temperatures do not look to
arrive until after precipitation stops. That said, it will be
nighttime and a light dusting on grassy areas is not out of the
question in central Missouri.

Another thing to keep an eye out for this evening is winds.
Surface low pressure will ride northeast up the front as it moves
through the area this evening. The resultant increase in pressure
gradient will result in a period with sustained northwest winds of
25mph and gusts to around 40mph. Not quite getting to advisory
levels, but not far off either.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Most locations remained dry overnight as a storm system continued
to approach the Ozarks region from the west. Eventually this
feature will force showers as early as this morning, and expand in
areal coverage throughout the day. We think most locations will
experience measurable rain this morning or this afternoon.

Perhaps better rain coverage will occur tonight as a cold front
sweeps through the area. There is a chance that some light snow
could mix with rain at times, particularly along and north of the
Interstate 44 corridor. The change over to some snow would not
occur until late in the evening or after midnight.

As of now we are not forecasting any accumulations, but the day
shift will need to take another look at this potential. The one
ingredient holding back slam dunk snow accumulation is
temperature, which may stay warm enough to mitigate
accumulations.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

Precipitation will exit the Ozarks early Monday morning, beginning
an extended period of dry weather.

Deep northwest flow will overcome much of the nation`s mid section
through the entire upcoming work week. This pattern will shut down
the Gulf of Mexico, while keeping temperatures slightly cooler
than normal for late November.

Look for temperatures in the 40s on an afternoon basis through
Saturday, with overnight lows in the 20s and 30s.

No precipitation is forecasted from Monday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Yet another complex and challenging forecast for area aerodromes.
Brunt of rainfall has shifted east of the aerodromes this morning
and for much of the afternoon, IFR stratus will lift to MVFR with
patchy drizzle around. Later this afternoon, the cold front to our
northwest will move into the region and increase rain chances from
northwest to southeast across the area. Still cannot rule out a
rumble or two of thunder from 21z to 03z along the front. Cold
front will arrive this evening at all TAF sites and winds will
abruptly shift to the west/northwest. Wind speeds and gusts will
be strong this evening and this will be something to monitor
closely. Rain will exit to the northeast after midnight. There
remains a brief window of opportunity for rain to mix with or
change over to snow. With temperatures in the mid 30s, impacts are
not expected. Stratus (IFR to low end MVFR) will linger into
Monday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 231642 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1042 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1041 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Forecast updated to account for latest radar trends. Dry slot has
worked its way a little further east than originally anticipated,
shunting the best axis of rainfall across the eastern Ozarks. The
rest of the area remains under widespread stratus and patchy
drizzle. The storm system is maturing, thus the dry slot will
continue to work its way east heading into this afternoon. That
said, combination of upper support and mid level frontogenesis
will instigate a large area of light rainfall to our northwest.
This will shift southeastward into the area this afternoon
(getting as far south as a Rolla/Springfield/Cassville line). As a
result, rain chances will increase later this afternoon into this
evening for the northwest half of the area.

In addition, there short range models continue to suggest enough
MUCAPE to support a slight chance for thunder ahead of the
incoming cold front. The window of opportunity for thunder has
been contracted a bit, to mainly between 2 PM and 9 PM. The cold
front will make steady progress into the area into the overnight
hours, leading to a short window of opportunity for a brief period
of a rain/snow mix. We will be refining this risk with the
incoming 12z model output, but flakes will be possible
along/northwest of the I-44 corridor. Any accumulation may be a
bit tough as below freezing surface temperatures do not look to
arrive until after precipitation stops. That said, it will be
nighttime and a light dusting on grassy areas is not out of the
question in central Missouri.

Another thing to keep an eye out for this evening is winds.
Surface low pressure will ride northeast up the front as it moves
through the area this evening. The resultant increase in pressure
gradient will result in a period with sustained northwest winds of
25mph and gusts to around 40mph. Not quite getting to advisory
levels, but not far off either.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Most locations remained dry overnight as a storm system continued
to approach the Ozarks region from the west. Eventually this
feature will force showers as early as this morning, and expand in
areal coverage throughout the day. We think most locations will
experience measurable rain this morning or this afternoon.

Perhaps better rain coverage will occur tonight as a cold front
sweeps through the area. There is a chance that some light snow
could mix with rain at times, particularly along and north of the
Interstate 44 corridor. The change over to some snow would not
occur until late in the evening or after midnight.

As of now we are not forecasting any accumulations, but the day
shift will need to take another look at this potential. The one
ingredient holding back slam dunk snow accumulation is
temperature, which may stay warm enough to mitigate
accumulations.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

Precipitation will exit the Ozarks early Monday morning, beginning
an extended period of dry weather.

Deep northwest flow will overcome much of the nation`s mid section
through the entire upcoming work week. This pattern will shut down
the Gulf of Mexico, while keeping temperatures slightly cooler
than normal for late November.

Look for temperatures in the 40s on an afternoon basis through
Saturday, with overnight lows in the 20s and 30s.

No precipitation is forecasted from Monday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 543 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A couple of disturbances will move
by and/or through the fcst area during this taf period. The first
is already producing some showers near and east of the taf sites
with mostly mvfr ceilings. This will shift away from the area over
the next few hours with a dry slot and just some light precip and
borderline ifr/mvfr stratus ceilings for a brief period. Finally
a strong cold front will move rapidly east through the area from
00z-04z with another round of showers and then a brief period of
post frontal rain and ifr ceilings (possibly briefly mixing or
changing to wet snow before ending by 06z-09z). Strong west-
northwest winds with gusts of 30-35kts will be possible after the
frontal passage.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KSGF 231642 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1042 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1041 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Forecast updated to account for latest radar trends. Dry slot has
worked its way a little further east than originally anticipated,
shunting the best axis of rainfall across the eastern Ozarks. The
rest of the area remains under widespread stratus and patchy
drizzle. The storm system is maturing, thus the dry slot will
continue to work its way east heading into this afternoon. That
said, combination of upper support and mid level frontogenesis
will instigate a large area of light rainfall to our northwest.
This will shift southeastward into the area this afternoon
(getting as far south as a Rolla/Springfield/Cassville line). As a
result, rain chances will increase later this afternoon into this
evening for the northwest half of the area.

In addition, there short range models continue to suggest enough
MUCAPE to support a slight chance for thunder ahead of the
incoming cold front. The window of opportunity for thunder has
been contracted a bit, to mainly between 2 PM and 9 PM. The cold
front will make steady progress into the area into the overnight
hours, leading to a short window of opportunity for a brief period
of a rain/snow mix. We will be refining this risk with the
incoming 12z model output, but flakes will be possible
along/northwest of the I-44 corridor. Any accumulation may be a
bit tough as below freezing surface temperatures do not look to
arrive until after precipitation stops. That said, it will be
nighttime and a light dusting on grassy areas is not out of the
question in central Missouri.

Another thing to keep an eye out for this evening is winds.
Surface low pressure will ride northeast up the front as it moves
through the area this evening. The resultant increase in pressure
gradient will result in a period with sustained northwest winds of
25mph and gusts to around 40mph. Not quite getting to advisory
levels, but not far off either.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Most locations remained dry overnight as a storm system continued
to approach the Ozarks region from the west. Eventually this
feature will force showers as early as this morning, and expand in
areal coverage throughout the day. We think most locations will
experience measurable rain this morning or this afternoon.

Perhaps better rain coverage will occur tonight as a cold front
sweeps through the area. There is a chance that some light snow
could mix with rain at times, particularly along and north of the
Interstate 44 corridor. The change over to some snow would not
occur until late in the evening or after midnight.

As of now we are not forecasting any accumulations, but the day
shift will need to take another look at this potential. The one
ingredient holding back slam dunk snow accumulation is
temperature, which may stay warm enough to mitigate
accumulations.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

Precipitation will exit the Ozarks early Monday morning, beginning
an extended period of dry weather.

Deep northwest flow will overcome much of the nation`s mid section
through the entire upcoming work week. This pattern will shut down
the Gulf of Mexico, while keeping temperatures slightly cooler
than normal for late November.

Look for temperatures in the 40s on an afternoon basis through
Saturday, with overnight lows in the 20s and 30s.

No precipitation is forecasted from Monday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 543 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A couple of disturbances will move
by and/or through the fcst area during this taf period. The first
is already producing some showers near and east of the taf sites
with mostly mvfr ceilings. This will shift away from the area over
the next few hours with a dry slot and just some light precip and
borderline ifr/mvfr stratus ceilings for a brief period. Finally
a strong cold front will move rapidly east through the area from
00z-04z with another round of showers and then a brief period of
post frontal rain and ifr ceilings (possibly briefly mixing or
changing to wet snow before ending by 06z-09z). Strong west-
northwest winds with gusts of 30-35kts will be possible after the
frontal passage.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KLSX 231228
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
628 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 331 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

Surface low to begin lifting northeastward towards forecast area
today. Will see showers on the increase this morning and spread
north across the region. Some instability today so there is a chance
of thunderstorms mainly along and south of I-70.  As for
temperatures, will depend on cloud cover and rainfall. But feel that
temps will rise into the mid 50s to low 60s by this afternoon.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 331 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

(Tonight-Wednesday)

While specific precip trends are certainly tricky tonight and into
Monday, latest synoptic and hi-res guidance suggests the general
scenario will be that this afternoon`s band of rain and embedded
thunderstorms will rotate east out of the area this evening, as
additional precip begins to form to our west as secondary shortwave
drops south in the wake of today`s system.  This secondary area of
precip should then wind down to spotty areas of light rain/light
snow during the day on Monday.

Yesterday`s guidance as well as 00z model output is now suggesting
more precip lingering in the cold air late tonight and early Monday
than was indicated by earlier runs.  I have not made any major
changes to the timing of the changeover from rain to snow over the
northwest half of the CWA in the 06-12z time frame; this may be a
bit too fast, but didn`t want to discount the intensity of the
CAA. In the far NW counties, it appears that this strong CAA will
cause freezing levels to drop enough to support the rain changing
over to all snow for a few hours late tonight and into early
Monday morning, and based on this have added some minor accumulations
of under an inch in our extreme northwest counties.

Min/max temps for tonight/Monday will be based on non-diurnal, 3
hourly temp trends during this time frame.

No major changes in going forecast trends heading into midweek, with
dry and chlly weather on Tuesday followed by a brief warmup and low
PoPs for the fast-moving, moisture-starved system on Wednesday.

(Thursday-Saturday)

Medium range guidance has come into better agreement with a less
amplified solution for Thanksgiving Day, suggesting a ribbon of
light precip over northern sections of the CWA as shortwave
interacts with baroclinicity that is draped across the region.
Pattern suggests that there should be a strong temperature
gradient from north to south across the region, with highs in the
30s over the cold air in the north while approaching 50 in the
warmer air over southern sections of the CWA.

This agreement jumps the tracks heading into the latter half of the
week, with GEM and ECMWF forecasting broad trofing over the central
CONUS while the GFS maintains a more quasi-zonal look.  Of course,
given the intensity of the baroclinic zone this somewhat subtle
difference will make a huge impact on sensible weather trends, and
especially on temperatures.  This discrepency can be seen in the
surface prog forecasts for Friday morning; ECMWF and GEM have broad
and cold Canadian high over the plains and into the upper
Mississippi Valley with north/northeast winds over our FA, while GFS
as surface low over the northern plains and southerly winds over our
area.  MOS guidance based on these solutions offer a more
quanitative and stark measure of this discrepency...a whopping
20-25 degree difference on Friday`s highs between the colder
ECMWF and warmer GFS. For now have maintained earlier (colder)
trends, based on consensus of GEM and ECMEF.

Truett
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 628 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

Next round of showers continuing to develop and slide northward
through forecast area and persist through most of forecast period.
Cigs to lower to mvfr by mid morning, then down to ifr. In the
meantime, winds to persist from the southeast to south today. As
surface low lifts through region, cold front associated with it to
slide through area tonight. Front to move through KCOU by 03z
Monday, KUIN by 04z Monday and metro area tafs by 07z Monday.
Winds to veer to the west behind from and become gusty at times.
Colder air will filter on back side of system with rain becoming
mixed with snow after midnight tonight.

Specifics for KSTL:
Next round of showers continuing to develop and slide northward
moving into the metro area by 14z and persist through most of
forecast period. Cigs to lower to mvfr by 14z, then down to ifr by 20z.
In the meantime, winds to persist from the south today. As
surface low lifts through region, cold front associated with it to
slide metro area by 07z Monday. Winds to veer to the west behind
from and become gusty at times. Colder air will filter on back
side of system with rain becoming mixed with snow after 13z
Monday.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 231228
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
628 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 331 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

Surface low to begin lifting northeastward towards forecast area
today. Will see showers on the increase this morning and spread
north across the region. Some instability today so there is a chance
of thunderstorms mainly along and south of I-70.  As for
temperatures, will depend on cloud cover and rainfall. But feel that
temps will rise into the mid 50s to low 60s by this afternoon.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 331 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

(Tonight-Wednesday)

While specific precip trends are certainly tricky tonight and into
Monday, latest synoptic and hi-res guidance suggests the general
scenario will be that this afternoon`s band of rain and embedded
thunderstorms will rotate east out of the area this evening, as
additional precip begins to form to our west as secondary shortwave
drops south in the wake of today`s system.  This secondary area of
precip should then wind down to spotty areas of light rain/light
snow during the day on Monday.

Yesterday`s guidance as well as 00z model output is now suggesting
more precip lingering in the cold air late tonight and early Monday
than was indicated by earlier runs.  I have not made any major
changes to the timing of the changeover from rain to snow over the
northwest half of the CWA in the 06-12z time frame; this may be a
bit too fast, but didn`t want to discount the intensity of the
CAA. In the far NW counties, it appears that this strong CAA will
cause freezing levels to drop enough to support the rain changing
over to all snow for a few hours late tonight and into early
Monday morning, and based on this have added some minor accumulations
of under an inch in our extreme northwest counties.

Min/max temps for tonight/Monday will be based on non-diurnal, 3
hourly temp trends during this time frame.

No major changes in going forecast trends heading into midweek, with
dry and chlly weather on Tuesday followed by a brief warmup and low
PoPs for the fast-moving, moisture-starved system on Wednesday.

(Thursday-Saturday)

Medium range guidance has come into better agreement with a less
amplified solution for Thanksgiving Day, suggesting a ribbon of
light precip over northern sections of the CWA as shortwave
interacts with baroclinicity that is draped across the region.
Pattern suggests that there should be a strong temperature
gradient from north to south across the region, with highs in the
30s over the cold air in the north while approaching 50 in the
warmer air over southern sections of the CWA.

This agreement jumps the tracks heading into the latter half of the
week, with GEM and ECMWF forecasting broad trofing over the central
CONUS while the GFS maintains a more quasi-zonal look.  Of course,
given the intensity of the baroclinic zone this somewhat subtle
difference will make a huge impact on sensible weather trends, and
especially on temperatures.  This discrepency can be seen in the
surface prog forecasts for Friday morning; ECMWF and GEM have broad
and cold Canadian high over the plains and into the upper
Mississippi Valley with north/northeast winds over our FA, while GFS
as surface low over the northern plains and southerly winds over our
area.  MOS guidance based on these solutions offer a more
quanitative and stark measure of this discrepency...a whopping
20-25 degree difference on Friday`s highs between the colder
ECMWF and warmer GFS. For now have maintained earlier (colder)
trends, based on consensus of GEM and ECMEF.

Truett
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 628 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

Next round of showers continuing to develop and slide northward
through forecast area and persist through most of forecast period.
Cigs to lower to mvfr by mid morning, then down to ifr. In the
meantime, winds to persist from the southeast to south today. As
surface low lifts through region, cold front associated with it to
slide through area tonight. Front to move through KCOU by 03z
Monday, KUIN by 04z Monday and metro area tafs by 07z Monday.
Winds to veer to the west behind from and become gusty at times.
Colder air will filter on back side of system with rain becoming
mixed with snow after midnight tonight.

Specifics for KSTL:
Next round of showers continuing to develop and slide northward
moving into the metro area by 14z and persist through most of
forecast period. Cigs to lower to mvfr by 14z, then down to ifr by 20z.
In the meantime, winds to persist from the south today. As
surface low lifts through region, cold front associated with it to
slide metro area by 07z Monday. Winds to veer to the west behind
from and become gusty at times. Colder air will filter on back
side of system with rain becoming mixed with snow after 13z
Monday.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KSGF 231159
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
559 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Most locations remained dry overnight as a storm system continued
to approach the Ozarks region from the west. Eventually this
feature will force showers as early as this morning, and expand in
areal coverage throughout the day. We think most locations will
experience measurable rain this morning or this afternoon.

Perhaps better rain coverage will occur tonight as a cold front
sweeps through the area. There is a chance that some light snow
could mix with rain at times, particularly along and north of the
Interstate 44 corridor. The change over to some snow would not
occur until late in the evening or after midnight.

As of now we are not forecasting any accumulations, but the day
shift will need to take another look at this potential. The one
ingredient holding back slam dunk snow accumulation is
temperature, which may stay warm enough to mitigate
accumulations.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

Precipitation will exit the Ozarks early Monday morning, beginning
an extended period of dry weather.

Deep northwest flow will overcome much of the nation`s mid section
through the entire upcoming work week. This pattern will shut down
the Gulf of Mexico, while keeping temperatures slightly cooler
than normal for late November.

Look for temperatures in the 40s on an afternoon basis through
Saturday, with overnight lows in the 20s and 30s.

No precipitation is forecasted from Monday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 543 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A couple of disturbances will move
by and/or through the fcst area during this taf period. The first
is already producing some showers near and east of the taf sites
with mostly mvfr ceilings. This will shift away from the area over
the next few hours with a dry slot and just some light precip and
borderline ifr/mvfr stratus ceilings for a brief period. Finally
a strong cold front will move rapidly east through the area from
00z-04z with another round of showers and then a brief period of
post frontal rain and ifr ceilings (possibly briefly mixing or
changing to wet snow before ending by 06z-09z). Strong west-
northwest winds with gusts of 30-35kts will be possible after the
frontal passage.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KSGF 231159
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
559 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Most locations remained dry overnight as a storm system continued
to approach the Ozarks region from the west. Eventually this
feature will force showers as early as this morning, and expand in
areal coverage throughout the day. We think most locations will
experience measurable rain this morning or this afternoon.

Perhaps better rain coverage will occur tonight as a cold front
sweeps through the area. There is a chance that some light snow
could mix with rain at times, particularly along and north of the
Interstate 44 corridor. The change over to some snow would not
occur until late in the evening or after midnight.

As of now we are not forecasting any accumulations, but the day
shift will need to take another look at this potential. The one
ingredient holding back slam dunk snow accumulation is
temperature, which may stay warm enough to mitigate
accumulations.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

Precipitation will exit the Ozarks early Monday morning, beginning
an extended period of dry weather.

Deep northwest flow will overcome much of the nation`s mid section
through the entire upcoming work week. This pattern will shut down
the Gulf of Mexico, while keeping temperatures slightly cooler
than normal for late November.

Look for temperatures in the 40s on an afternoon basis through
Saturday, with overnight lows in the 20s and 30s.

No precipitation is forecasted from Monday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 543 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A couple of disturbances will move
by and/or through the fcst area during this taf period. The first
is already producing some showers near and east of the taf sites
with mostly mvfr ceilings. This will shift away from the area over
the next few hours with a dry slot and just some light precip and
borderline ifr/mvfr stratus ceilings for a brief period. Finally
a strong cold front will move rapidly east through the area from
00z-04z with another round of showers and then a brief period of
post frontal rain and ifr ceilings (possibly briefly mixing or
changing to wet snow before ending by 06z-09z). Strong west-
northwest winds with gusts of 30-35kts will be possible after the
frontal passage.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KEAX 231137
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
537 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Another day of cloudy wet conditions, but a cold front sweeping
through tonight could bring some snow. Water vapor imagery this
morning shows a couple of interacting shortwave troughs across the
middle of the Nation, with the first along the Gulf Coast and the
second digging into the Plains States as it transits the Rocky
Mountains. The general scenario is that the Gulf Coast trough will
lift northeast today into the Ohio River Valley ahead of the
second trough. This will likely result in periods of rain across
areas of Missouri today, with morning radar imagery starting to
verify this potential early this morning. Temperatures will be more
than sufficiently warm enough to keep all precipitation during the
daylight hours liquid. However, as the secondary trough moves into
and deepens across the Plains States it will help quickly shove a
cold front into and through Missouri this afternoon through tonight.
Models are consistent in advertising decent deformation shield
precipitation on the back side of these two interacting troughs late
today and through the overnight hours. Thus, have adjust POPs to keep
categorical and likely probabilities going well into the overnight
hours. This in turn brings to the forefront the issue of
precipitation type as the potential for precipitation occurring as
temperatures cool within the atmospheric column are starting to look
good, though only for the early morning hours of Monday. This
deformation zone might be able to squeeze out anything from a half
into to an inch and a half across areas of north central to northeast
Missouri, with light accumulations sneaking as far south as eastern
suburbs of Kansas City before sunrise. Ultimately, snowfall totals
should be rather low owing to warm conditions before the onset of the
cooler temperatures, but it might be sufficient to make for a quick
bout of slick roads Monday morning. Otherwise, of note for late
tonight into Monday will be the strong winds. Strong and gusty
northwest winds will move in behind the front today, which will keep
the wind up and gusting overnight. Currently, expectations for wind
speeds behind the front this afternoon and tonight fall short of wind
advisory criteria, but this will need reevaluation through the day.

Well, after the relatively warm weekend the work week will be
decidedly cooler, though not record breaking unlike some of our days
last week. The broad trough expected to develop and transit the
central CONUS this week will keep temperatures running below normal,
but the troughs quick transit east will allow a flattened flow to
develop later in the work week so temperatures wont be arctic cold.
Another issue to watch for later in the week will be a quick
shortwave trough in the northwest flow advertised for Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Currently, the system looks like a bit of clipper, so
much of its focus will likely be to our north and east given its
current advertised trajectory.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 537 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A combination of low end MVFR to high end IFR conditions dot western
Missouri early this morning with showers buried deep in the stratus
cloud cover. Clouds and winds should remain relatively unchanged
through much of the morning, though flight categories could jump
around a little due to conditions riding on the edge of the MVFR and
IFR categories. A cold front will begin transiting the terminals this
afternoon and into this evening, bringing strong and gusty northwest
winds tonight. Additionally, temperatures might fall fast enough to
allow for some mixed precipitation to develop at the tail end of the
current TAF cycle. Have only added in the mix for the KSTJ terminal
owing to it location farthest north, but later TAF updates will
continue to watch this potential for all the terminals.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 231137
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
537 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Another day of cloudy wet conditions, but a cold front sweeping
through tonight could bring some snow. Water vapor imagery this
morning shows a couple of interacting shortwave troughs across the
middle of the Nation, with the first along the Gulf Coast and the
second digging into the Plains States as it transits the Rocky
Mountains. The general scenario is that the Gulf Coast trough will
lift northeast today into the Ohio River Valley ahead of the
second trough. This will likely result in periods of rain across
areas of Missouri today, with morning radar imagery starting to
verify this potential early this morning. Temperatures will be more
than sufficiently warm enough to keep all precipitation during the
daylight hours liquid. However, as the secondary trough moves into
and deepens across the Plains States it will help quickly shove a
cold front into and through Missouri this afternoon through tonight.
Models are consistent in advertising decent deformation shield
precipitation on the back side of these two interacting troughs late
today and through the overnight hours. Thus, have adjust POPs to keep
categorical and likely probabilities going well into the overnight
hours. This in turn brings to the forefront the issue of
precipitation type as the potential for precipitation occurring as
temperatures cool within the atmospheric column are starting to look
good, though only for the early morning hours of Monday. This
deformation zone might be able to squeeze out anything from a half
into to an inch and a half across areas of north central to northeast
Missouri, with light accumulations sneaking as far south as eastern
suburbs of Kansas City before sunrise. Ultimately, snowfall totals
should be rather low owing to warm conditions before the onset of the
cooler temperatures, but it might be sufficient to make for a quick
bout of slick roads Monday morning. Otherwise, of note for late
tonight into Monday will be the strong winds. Strong and gusty
northwest winds will move in behind the front today, which will keep
the wind up and gusting overnight. Currently, expectations for wind
speeds behind the front this afternoon and tonight fall short of wind
advisory criteria, but this will need reevaluation through the day.

Well, after the relatively warm weekend the work week will be
decidedly cooler, though not record breaking unlike some of our days
last week. The broad trough expected to develop and transit the
central CONUS this week will keep temperatures running below normal,
but the troughs quick transit east will allow a flattened flow to
develop later in the work week so temperatures wont be arctic cold.
Another issue to watch for later in the week will be a quick
shortwave trough in the northwest flow advertised for Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Currently, the system looks like a bit of clipper, so
much of its focus will likely be to our north and east given its
current advertised trajectory.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 537 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A combination of low end MVFR to high end IFR conditions dot western
Missouri early this morning with showers buried deep in the stratus
cloud cover. Clouds and winds should remain relatively unchanged
through much of the morning, though flight categories could jump
around a little due to conditions riding on the edge of the MVFR and
IFR categories. A cold front will begin transiting the terminals this
afternoon and into this evening, bringing strong and gusty northwest
winds tonight. Additionally, temperatures might fall fast enough to
allow for some mixed precipitation to develop at the tail end of the
current TAF cycle. Have only added in the mix for the KSTJ terminal
owing to it location farthest north, but later TAF updates will
continue to watch this potential for all the terminals.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 231137
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
537 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Another day of cloudy wet conditions, but a cold front sweeping
through tonight could bring some snow. Water vapor imagery this
morning shows a couple of interacting shortwave troughs across the
middle of the Nation, with the first along the Gulf Coast and the
second digging into the Plains States as it transits the Rocky
Mountains. The general scenario is that the Gulf Coast trough will
lift northeast today into the Ohio River Valley ahead of the
second trough. This will likely result in periods of rain across
areas of Missouri today, with morning radar imagery starting to
verify this potential early this morning. Temperatures will be more
than sufficiently warm enough to keep all precipitation during the
daylight hours liquid. However, as the secondary trough moves into
and deepens across the Plains States it will help quickly shove a
cold front into and through Missouri this afternoon through tonight.
Models are consistent in advertising decent deformation shield
precipitation on the back side of these two interacting troughs late
today and through the overnight hours. Thus, have adjust POPs to keep
categorical and likely probabilities going well into the overnight
hours. This in turn brings to the forefront the issue of
precipitation type as the potential for precipitation occurring as
temperatures cool within the atmospheric column are starting to look
good, though only for the early morning hours of Monday. This
deformation zone might be able to squeeze out anything from a half
into to an inch and a half across areas of north central to northeast
Missouri, with light accumulations sneaking as far south as eastern
suburbs of Kansas City before sunrise. Ultimately, snowfall totals
should be rather low owing to warm conditions before the onset of the
cooler temperatures, but it might be sufficient to make for a quick
bout of slick roads Monday morning. Otherwise, of note for late
tonight into Monday will be the strong winds. Strong and gusty
northwest winds will move in behind the front today, which will keep
the wind up and gusting overnight. Currently, expectations for wind
speeds behind the front this afternoon and tonight fall short of wind
advisory criteria, but this will need reevaluation through the day.

Well, after the relatively warm weekend the work week will be
decidedly cooler, though not record breaking unlike some of our days
last week. The broad trough expected to develop and transit the
central CONUS this week will keep temperatures running below normal,
but the troughs quick transit east will allow a flattened flow to
develop later in the work week so temperatures wont be arctic cold.
Another issue to watch for later in the week will be a quick
shortwave trough in the northwest flow advertised for Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Currently, the system looks like a bit of clipper, so
much of its focus will likely be to our north and east given its
current advertised trajectory.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 537 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A combination of low end MVFR to high end IFR conditions dot western
Missouri early this morning with showers buried deep in the stratus
cloud cover. Clouds and winds should remain relatively unchanged
through much of the morning, though flight categories could jump
around a little due to conditions riding on the edge of the MVFR and
IFR categories. A cold front will begin transiting the terminals this
afternoon and into this evening, bringing strong and gusty northwest
winds tonight. Additionally, temperatures might fall fast enough to
allow for some mixed precipitation to develop at the tail end of the
current TAF cycle. Have only added in the mix for the KSTJ terminal
owing to it location farthest north, but later TAF updates will
continue to watch this potential for all the terminals.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 231137
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
537 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Another day of cloudy wet conditions, but a cold front sweeping
through tonight could bring some snow. Water vapor imagery this
morning shows a couple of interacting shortwave troughs across the
middle of the Nation, with the first along the Gulf Coast and the
second digging into the Plains States as it transits the Rocky
Mountains. The general scenario is that the Gulf Coast trough will
lift northeast today into the Ohio River Valley ahead of the
second trough. This will likely result in periods of rain across
areas of Missouri today, with morning radar imagery starting to
verify this potential early this morning. Temperatures will be more
than sufficiently warm enough to keep all precipitation during the
daylight hours liquid. However, as the secondary trough moves into
and deepens across the Plains States it will help quickly shove a
cold front into and through Missouri this afternoon through tonight.
Models are consistent in advertising decent deformation shield
precipitation on the back side of these two interacting troughs late
today and through the overnight hours. Thus, have adjust POPs to keep
categorical and likely probabilities going well into the overnight
hours. This in turn brings to the forefront the issue of
precipitation type as the potential for precipitation occurring as
temperatures cool within the atmospheric column are starting to look
good, though only for the early morning hours of Monday. This
deformation zone might be able to squeeze out anything from a half
into to an inch and a half across areas of north central to northeast
Missouri, with light accumulations sneaking as far south as eastern
suburbs of Kansas City before sunrise. Ultimately, snowfall totals
should be rather low owing to warm conditions before the onset of the
cooler temperatures, but it might be sufficient to make for a quick
bout of slick roads Monday morning. Otherwise, of note for late
tonight into Monday will be the strong winds. Strong and gusty
northwest winds will move in behind the front today, which will keep
the wind up and gusting overnight. Currently, expectations for wind
speeds behind the front this afternoon and tonight fall short of wind
advisory criteria, but this will need reevaluation through the day.

Well, after the relatively warm weekend the work week will be
decidedly cooler, though not record breaking unlike some of our days
last week. The broad trough expected to develop and transit the
central CONUS this week will keep temperatures running below normal,
but the troughs quick transit east will allow a flattened flow to
develop later in the work week so temperatures wont be arctic cold.
Another issue to watch for later in the week will be a quick
shortwave trough in the northwest flow advertised for Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Currently, the system looks like a bit of clipper, so
much of its focus will likely be to our north and east given its
current advertised trajectory.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 537 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A combination of low end MVFR to high end IFR conditions dot western
Missouri early this morning with showers buried deep in the stratus
cloud cover. Clouds and winds should remain relatively unchanged
through much of the morning, though flight categories could jump
around a little due to conditions riding on the edge of the MVFR and
IFR categories. A cold front will begin transiting the terminals this
afternoon and into this evening, bringing strong and gusty northwest
winds tonight. Additionally, temperatures might fall fast enough to
allow for some mixed precipitation to develop at the tail end of the
current TAF cycle. Have only added in the mix for the KSTJ terminal
owing to it location farthest north, but later TAF updates will
continue to watch this potential for all the terminals.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 231006
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
406 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Another day of cloudy wet conditions, but a cold front sweeping
through tonight could bring some snow. Water vapor imagery this
morning shows a couple of interacting shortwave troughs across the
middle of the Nation, with the first along the Gulf Coast and the
second digging into the Plains States as it transits the Rocky
Mountains. The general scenario is that the Gulf Coast trough will
lift northeast today into the Ohio River Valley ahead of the
second trough. This will likely result in periods of rain across
areas of Missouri today, with morning radar imagery starting to
verify this potential early this morning. Temperatures will be more
than sufficiently warm enough to keep all precipitation during the
daylight hours liquid. However, as the secondary trough moves into
and deepens across the Plains States it will help quickly shove a
cold front into and through Missouri this afternoon through tonight.
Models are consistent in advertising decent deformation shield
precipitation on the back side of these two interacting troughs late
today and through the overnight hours. Thus, have adjust POPs to keep
categorical and likely probabilities going well into the overnight
hours. This in turn brings to the forefront the issue of
precipitation type as the potential for precipitation occurring as
temperatures cool within the atmospheric column are starting to look
good, though only for the early morning hours of Monday. This
deformation zone might be able to squeeze out anything from a half
into to an inch and a half across areas of north central to northeast
Missouri, with light accumulations sneaking as far south as eastern
suburbs of Kansas City before sunrise. Ultimately, snowfall totals
should be rather low owing to warm conditions before the onset of the
cooler temperatures, but it might be sufficient to make for a quick
bout of slick roads Monday morning. Otherwise, of note for late
tonight into Monday will be the strong winds. Strong and gusty
northwest winds will move in behind the front today, which will keep
the wind up and gusting overnight. Currently, expectations for wind
speeds behind the front this afternoon and tonight fall short of wind
advisory criteria, but this will need reevaluation through the day.

Well, after the relatively warm weekend the work week will be
decidedly cooler, though not record breaking unlike some of our days
last week. The broad trough expected to develop and transit the
central CONUS this week will keep temperatures running below normal,
but the troughs quick transit east will allow a flattened flow to
develop later in the work week so temperatures wont be arctic cold.
Another issue to watch for later in the week will be a quick
shortwave trough in the northwest flow advertised for Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Currently, the system looks like a bit of clipper, so
much of its focus will likely be to our north and east given its
current advertised trajectory.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MVFR conditions will prevail initially with gradually diminishing
conditions expected through the period. Rain chances overnight are
marginal, but could see some spotty showers into the early morning
hours. Winds will gradually transition to NW as a cold front makes
its way through the area. Expecting to see further reduced ceilings
and visibilities as increased rain chances set up late Sunday
afternoon. Gusty NW winds will pick up coinciding with the frontal
passage. Also seeing evidence of a rain/snow mix event toward the very
end of the TAF period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 231006
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
406 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Another day of cloudy wet conditions, but a cold front sweeping
through tonight could bring some snow. Water vapor imagery this
morning shows a couple of interacting shortwave troughs across the
middle of the Nation, with the first along the Gulf Coast and the
second digging into the Plains States as it transits the Rocky
Mountains. The general scenario is that the Gulf Coast trough will
lift northeast today into the Ohio River Valley ahead of the
second trough. This will likely result in periods of rain across
areas of Missouri today, with morning radar imagery starting to
verify this potential early this morning. Temperatures will be more
than sufficiently warm enough to keep all precipitation during the
daylight hours liquid. However, as the secondary trough moves into
and deepens across the Plains States it will help quickly shove a
cold front into and through Missouri this afternoon through tonight.
Models are consistent in advertising decent deformation shield
precipitation on the back side of these two interacting troughs late
today and through the overnight hours. Thus, have adjust POPs to keep
categorical and likely probabilities going well into the overnight
hours. This in turn brings to the forefront the issue of
precipitation type as the potential for precipitation occurring as
temperatures cool within the atmospheric column are starting to look
good, though only for the early morning hours of Monday. This
deformation zone might be able to squeeze out anything from a half
into to an inch and a half across areas of north central to northeast
Missouri, with light accumulations sneaking as far south as eastern
suburbs of Kansas City before sunrise. Ultimately, snowfall totals
should be rather low owing to warm conditions before the onset of the
cooler temperatures, but it might be sufficient to make for a quick
bout of slick roads Monday morning. Otherwise, of note for late
tonight into Monday will be the strong winds. Strong and gusty
northwest winds will move in behind the front today, which will keep
the wind up and gusting overnight. Currently, expectations for wind
speeds behind the front this afternoon and tonight fall short of wind
advisory criteria, but this will need reevaluation through the day.

Well, after the relatively warm weekend the work week will be
decidedly cooler, though not record breaking unlike some of our days
last week. The broad trough expected to develop and transit the
central CONUS this week will keep temperatures running below normal,
but the troughs quick transit east will allow a flattened flow to
develop later in the work week so temperatures wont be arctic cold.
Another issue to watch for later in the week will be a quick
shortwave trough in the northwest flow advertised for Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Currently, the system looks like a bit of clipper, so
much of its focus will likely be to our north and east given its
current advertised trajectory.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MVFR conditions will prevail initially with gradually diminishing
conditions expected through the period. Rain chances overnight are
marginal, but could see some spotty showers into the early morning
hours. Winds will gradually transition to NW as a cold front makes
its way through the area. Expecting to see further reduced ceilings
and visibilities as increased rain chances set up late Sunday
afternoon. Gusty NW winds will pick up coinciding with the frontal
passage. Also seeing evidence of a rain/snow mix event toward the very
end of the TAF period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Welsh








000
FXUS63 KLSX 230937
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
337 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 331 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

Surface low to begin lifting northeastward towards forecast area
today. Will see showers on the increase this morning and spread
north across the region. Some instability today so there is a chance
of thunderstorms mainly along and south of I-70.  As for
temperatures, will depend on cloud cover and rainfall. But feel that
temps will rise into the mid 50s to low 60s by this afternoon.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 331 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

(Tonight-Wednesday)

While specific precip trends are certainly tricky tonight and into
Monday, latest synoptic and hi-res guidance suggests the general
scenario will be that this afternoon`s band of rain and embedded
thunderstorms will rotate east out of the area this evening, as
additional precip begins to form to our west as secondary shortwave
drops south in the wake of today`s system.  This secondary area of
precip should then wind down to spotty areas of light rain/light
snow during the day on Monday.

Yesterday`s guidance as well as 00z model output is now suggesting
more precip lingering in the cold air late tonight and early Monday
than was indicated by earlier runs.  I have not made any major
changes to the timing of the changeover from rain to snow over the
northwest half of the CWA in the 06-12z time frame; this may be a
bit too fast, but didn`t want to discount the intensity of the
CAA. In the far NW counties, it appears that this strong CAA will
cause freezing levels to drop enough to support the rain changing
over to all snow for a few hours late tonight and into early
Monday morning, and based on this have added some minor accumulations
of under an inch in our extreme northwest counties.

Min/max temps for tonight/Monday will be based on non-diurnal, 3
hourly temp trends during this time frame.

No major changes in going forecast trends heading into midweek, with
dry and chlly weather on Tuesday followed by a brief warmup and low
PoPs for the fast-moving, moisture-starved system on Wednesday.

(Thursday-Saturday)

Medium range guidance has come into better agreement with a less
amplified solution for Thanksgiving Day, suggesting a ribbon of
light precip over northern sections of the CWA as shortwave
interacts with baroclinicity that is draped across the region.
Pattern suggests that there should be a strong temperature
gradient from north to south across the region, with highs in the
30s over the cold air in the north while approaching 50 in the
warmer air over southern sections of the CWA.

This agreement jumps the tracks heading into the latter half of the
week, with GEM and ECMWF forecasting broad trofing over the central
CONUS while the GFS maintains a more quasi-zonal look.  Of course,
given the intensity of the baroclinic zone this somewhat subtle
difference will make a huge impact on sensible weather trends, and
especially on temperatures.  This discrepency can be seen in the
surface prog forecasts for Friday morning; ECMWF and GEM have broad
and cold Canadian high over the plains and into the upper
Mississippi Valley with north/northeast winds over our FA, while GFS
as surface low over the northern plains and southerly winds over our
area.  MOS guidance based on these solutions offer a more
quanitative and stark measure of this discrepency...a whopping
20-25 degree difference on Friday`s highs between the colder
ECMWF and warmer GFS. For now have maintained earlier (colder)
trends, based on consensus of GEM and ECMEF.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: An approaching low pressure system will
bring widespread rainfall and IFR conditions to the area on
Sunday. Winds will become northwesterly behind a cold front
towards the end of the 24-hr TAF period at KUIN. Just beyond the
end of the TAF period, a brief period of light snow is possible
while precipitation is ending.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Despite several hours of
persistent light rainfall at night along with steadily increasing
surface dew points, ceilings have remained predominantly VFR at
the St. Louis metro area TAF sites over the last 6 hours. Most
perplexing. In any event, confidence in cig/vis trends is lower
during the first 0-6 hours of the TAF period compared to later,
when a strong low pressure system will bring widespread rainfall
and IFR conditions to the area. Conditions will deteriorate with
time, especially after 10-12z. Winds will become westerly to
northwesterly and increase behind a cold front towards the end of
the 30-hr TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 230937
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
337 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 331 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

Surface low to begin lifting northeastward towards forecast area
today. Will see showers on the increase this morning and spread
north across the region. Some instability today so there is a chance
of thunderstorms mainly along and south of I-70.  As for
temperatures, will depend on cloud cover and rainfall. But feel that
temps will rise into the mid 50s to low 60s by this afternoon.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 331 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

(Tonight-Wednesday)

While specific precip trends are certainly tricky tonight and into
Monday, latest synoptic and hi-res guidance suggests the general
scenario will be that this afternoon`s band of rain and embedded
thunderstorms will rotate east out of the area this evening, as
additional precip begins to form to our west as secondary shortwave
drops south in the wake of today`s system.  This secondary area of
precip should then wind down to spotty areas of light rain/light
snow during the day on Monday.

Yesterday`s guidance as well as 00z model output is now suggesting
more precip lingering in the cold air late tonight and early Monday
than was indicated by earlier runs.  I have not made any major
changes to the timing of the changeover from rain to snow over the
northwest half of the CWA in the 06-12z time frame; this may be a
bit too fast, but didn`t want to discount the intensity of the
CAA. In the far NW counties, it appears that this strong CAA will
cause freezing levels to drop enough to support the rain changing
over to all snow for a few hours late tonight and into early
Monday morning, and based on this have added some minor accumulations
of under an inch in our extreme northwest counties.

Min/max temps for tonight/Monday will be based on non-diurnal, 3
hourly temp trends during this time frame.

No major changes in going forecast trends heading into midweek, with
dry and chlly weather on Tuesday followed by a brief warmup and low
PoPs for the fast-moving, moisture-starved system on Wednesday.

(Thursday-Saturday)

Medium range guidance has come into better agreement with a less
amplified solution for Thanksgiving Day, suggesting a ribbon of
light precip over northern sections of the CWA as shortwave
interacts with baroclinicity that is draped across the region.
Pattern suggests that there should be a strong temperature
gradient from north to south across the region, with highs in the
30s over the cold air in the north while approaching 50 in the
warmer air over southern sections of the CWA.

This agreement jumps the tracks heading into the latter half of the
week, with GEM and ECMWF forecasting broad trofing over the central
CONUS while the GFS maintains a more quasi-zonal look.  Of course,
given the intensity of the baroclinic zone this somewhat subtle
difference will make a huge impact on sensible weather trends, and
especially on temperatures.  This discrepency can be seen in the
surface prog forecasts for Friday morning; ECMWF and GEM have broad
and cold Canadian high over the plains and into the upper
Mississippi Valley with north/northeast winds over our FA, while GFS
as surface low over the northern plains and southerly winds over our
area.  MOS guidance based on these solutions offer a more
quanitative and stark measure of this discrepency...a whopping
20-25 degree difference on Friday`s highs between the colder
ECMWF and warmer GFS. For now have maintained earlier (colder)
trends, based on consensus of GEM and ECMEF.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: An approaching low pressure system will
bring widespread rainfall and IFR conditions to the area on
Sunday. Winds will become northwesterly behind a cold front
towards the end of the 24-hr TAF period at KUIN. Just beyond the
end of the TAF period, a brief period of light snow is possible
while precipitation is ending.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Despite several hours of
persistent light rainfall at night along with steadily increasing
surface dew points, ceilings have remained predominantly VFR at
the St. Louis metro area TAF sites over the last 6 hours. Most
perplexing. In any event, confidence in cig/vis trends is lower
during the first 0-6 hours of the TAF period compared to later,
when a strong low pressure system will bring widespread rainfall
and IFR conditions to the area. Conditions will deteriorate with
time, especially after 10-12z. Winds will become westerly to
northwesterly and increase behind a cold front towards the end of
the 30-hr TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 230927
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
327 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Most locations remained dry overnight as a storm system continued
to approach the Ozarks region from the west. Eventually this
feature will force showers as early as this morning, and expand in
areal coverage throughout the day. We think most locations will
experience measurable rain this morning or this afternoon.

Perhaps better rain coverage will occur tonight as a cold front
sweeps through the area. There is a chance that some light snow
could mix with rain at times, particularly along and north of the
Interstate 44 corridor. The change over to some snow would not
occur until late in the evening or after midnight.

As of now we are not forecasting any accumulations, but the day
shift will need to take another look at this potential. The one
ingredient holding back slam dunk snow accumulation is
temperature, which may stay warm enough to mitigate
accumulations.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

Precipitation will exit the Ozarks early Monday morning, beginning
an extended period of dry weather.

Deep northwest flow will overcome much of the nation`s mid section
through the entire upcoming work week. This pattern will shut down
the Gulf of Mexico, while keeping temperatures slightly cooler
than normal for late November.

Look for temperatures in the 40s on an afternoon basis through
Saturday, with overnight lows in the 20s and 30s.

No precipitation is forecasted from Monday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Flight conditions are expected to deteriorate from late tonight
into Sunday morning as a low pressure system approaches from the
southwest. Rain showers will also develop with the potential for
isolated thunderstorms Sunday morning. We are primarily expecting
MVFR conditions as the precipitation moves in with embedded
pockets of IFR.

The rain may then end for a time Sunday afternoon but pockets of
drizzle will remain possible. That low pressure will then move
through early Sunday evening and will drag a strong cold front
through the area. We are expecting another shot of showers and
possible thunderstorms with the front. Confidence is then
increasing in a changeover to snow before precipitation ends later
Sunday night...especially at Joplin and Springfield.

As for winds, low level wind shear will continue for much of the
overnight period with brisk southeast surface winds. Brisk and
gusty west to northwest winds will then develop behind that cold
front...with gusts around 30 knots at times.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 230927
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
327 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Most locations remained dry overnight as a storm system continued
to approach the Ozarks region from the west. Eventually this
feature will force showers as early as this morning, and expand in
areal coverage throughout the day. We think most locations will
experience measurable rain this morning or this afternoon.

Perhaps better rain coverage will occur tonight as a cold front
sweeps through the area. There is a chance that some light snow
could mix with rain at times, particularly along and north of the
Interstate 44 corridor. The change over to some snow would not
occur until late in the evening or after midnight.

As of now we are not forecasting any accumulations, but the day
shift will need to take another look at this potential. The one
ingredient holding back slam dunk snow accumulation is
temperature, which may stay warm enough to mitigate
accumulations.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

Precipitation will exit the Ozarks early Monday morning, beginning
an extended period of dry weather.

Deep northwest flow will overcome much of the nation`s mid section
through the entire upcoming work week. This pattern will shut down
the Gulf of Mexico, while keeping temperatures slightly cooler
than normal for late November.

Look for temperatures in the 40s on an afternoon basis through
Saturday, with overnight lows in the 20s and 30s.

No precipitation is forecasted from Monday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Flight conditions are expected to deteriorate from late tonight
into Sunday morning as a low pressure system approaches from the
southwest. Rain showers will also develop with the potential for
isolated thunderstorms Sunday morning. We are primarily expecting
MVFR conditions as the precipitation moves in with embedded
pockets of IFR.

The rain may then end for a time Sunday afternoon but pockets of
drizzle will remain possible. That low pressure will then move
through early Sunday evening and will drag a strong cold front
through the area. We are expecting another shot of showers and
possible thunderstorms with the front. Confidence is then
increasing in a changeover to snow before precipitation ends later
Sunday night...especially at Joplin and Springfield.

As for winds, low level wind shear will continue for much of the
overnight period with brisk southeast surface winds. Brisk and
gusty west to northwest winds will then develop behind that cold
front...with gusts around 30 knots at times.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 230927
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
327 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Most locations remained dry overnight as a storm system continued
to approach the Ozarks region from the west. Eventually this
feature will force showers as early as this morning, and expand in
areal coverage throughout the day. We think most locations will
experience measurable rain this morning or this afternoon.

Perhaps better rain coverage will occur tonight as a cold front
sweeps through the area. There is a chance that some light snow
could mix with rain at times, particularly along and north of the
Interstate 44 corridor. The change over to some snow would not
occur until late in the evening or after midnight.

As of now we are not forecasting any accumulations, but the day
shift will need to take another look at this potential. The one
ingredient holding back slam dunk snow accumulation is
temperature, which may stay warm enough to mitigate
accumulations.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

Precipitation will exit the Ozarks early Monday morning, beginning
an extended period of dry weather.

Deep northwest flow will overcome much of the nation`s mid section
through the entire upcoming work week. This pattern will shut down
the Gulf of Mexico, while keeping temperatures slightly cooler
than normal for late November.

Look for temperatures in the 40s on an afternoon basis through
Saturday, with overnight lows in the 20s and 30s.

No precipitation is forecasted from Monday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Flight conditions are expected to deteriorate from late tonight
into Sunday morning as a low pressure system approaches from the
southwest. Rain showers will also develop with the potential for
isolated thunderstorms Sunday morning. We are primarily expecting
MVFR conditions as the precipitation moves in with embedded
pockets of IFR.

The rain may then end for a time Sunday afternoon but pockets of
drizzle will remain possible. That low pressure will then move
through early Sunday evening and will drag a strong cold front
through the area. We are expecting another shot of showers and
possible thunderstorms with the front. Confidence is then
increasing in a changeover to snow before precipitation ends later
Sunday night...especially at Joplin and Springfield.

As for winds, low level wind shear will continue for much of the
overnight period with brisk southeast surface winds. Brisk and
gusty west to northwest winds will then develop behind that cold
front...with gusts around 30 knots at times.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 230927
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
327 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Most locations remained dry overnight as a storm system continued
to approach the Ozarks region from the west. Eventually this
feature will force showers as early as this morning, and expand in
areal coverage throughout the day. We think most locations will
experience measurable rain this morning or this afternoon.

Perhaps better rain coverage will occur tonight as a cold front
sweeps through the area. There is a chance that some light snow
could mix with rain at times, particularly along and north of the
Interstate 44 corridor. The change over to some snow would not
occur until late in the evening or after midnight.

As of now we are not forecasting any accumulations, but the day
shift will need to take another look at this potential. The one
ingredient holding back slam dunk snow accumulation is
temperature, which may stay warm enough to mitigate
accumulations.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

Precipitation will exit the Ozarks early Monday morning, beginning
an extended period of dry weather.

Deep northwest flow will overcome much of the nation`s mid section
through the entire upcoming work week. This pattern will shut down
the Gulf of Mexico, while keeping temperatures slightly cooler
than normal for late November.

Look for temperatures in the 40s on an afternoon basis through
Saturday, with overnight lows in the 20s and 30s.

No precipitation is forecasted from Monday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Flight conditions are expected to deteriorate from late tonight
into Sunday morning as a low pressure system approaches from the
southwest. Rain showers will also develop with the potential for
isolated thunderstorms Sunday morning. We are primarily expecting
MVFR conditions as the precipitation moves in with embedded
pockets of IFR.

The rain may then end for a time Sunday afternoon but pockets of
drizzle will remain possible. That low pressure will then move
through early Sunday evening and will drag a strong cold front
through the area. We are expecting another shot of showers and
possible thunderstorms with the front. Confidence is then
increasing in a changeover to snow before precipitation ends later
Sunday night...especially at Joplin and Springfield.

As for winds, low level wind shear will continue for much of the
overnight period with brisk southeast surface winds. Brisk and
gusty west to northwest winds will then develop behind that cold
front...with gusts around 30 knots at times.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 230621
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1221 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 832 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

We have lowered PoPs for the remainder of this evening into the
early overnight period. We really are not seeing any sources of
sustained lift or focus to support organized shower activity.
Regional radar composite imagery confirms this with an overall
decreasing trend in rain shower activity.

Large scale lift will begin to increase late tonight as short wave
energy approaches the Arklatex region. We are therefore expecting
an uptick in shower activity late tonight with perhaps a rumble of
thunder or two.

One other final note regarding the tail end of this system. Models
(including the 00 UTC NAM) are showing an increasing signal for a
changeover to wet snow Sunday night before precipitation ends.
Given that air temperatures, ground temperatures, and road
temperatures will be above freezing, we are not expecting impacts
at this time. However, we could see some minor accumulations on
grassy surfaces...primarily along and north of the U.S. 60
corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

An upper level storm system was currently over the Big Bend of
Texas and slowly moving northeastward. This system is picking up
moisture from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. One shield of
rain and even isolated thunder will continue to move from Oklahoma
and northern Arkansas into southern Missouri through the evening
hours.

Another shield of rain with isolated thunder will develop late
tonight into Sunday morning and spread across the area. No severe
weather expected but light to occasional moderate downpours can
be expected through Sunday. There are no changes in the forecast
through Sunday. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the 50s
tonight and highs in the lower 60s tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A cold front will move through the area Sunday night along with
another upper level disturbance. This will bring the last round of
showers Sunday night. Model soundings indicate there may be just
enough cold air aloft and the mid levels late Sunday night for
some of the showers to mix with some wet snow before ending. This
will be mainly north of I-44 and temperatures will be in the
middle to upper 30s. If this does occur...there will be no
accumulations.

Skies will slowly clear Monday and turning windy. Temperatures
will struggle to reach the middle 40s. There will be a northwest
flow for most of next week. Temperatures will be below average and
a mostly dry forecast. There will be several dry frontal passages
to reinforce the cooler and dry air mass. Travelers on Wednesday
can expected quiet weather and dry weather around this area.
Thanksgiving looks cool and sunny. Slightly colder and dry weather
continues for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Flight conditions are expected to deteriorate from late tonight
into Sunday morning as a low pressure system approaches from the
southwest. Rain showers will also develop with the potential for
isolated thunderstorms Sunday morning. We are primarily expecting
MVFR conditions as the precipitation moves in with embedded
pockets of IFR.

The rain may then end for a time Sunday afternoon but pockets of
drizzle will remain possible. That low pressure will then move
through early Sunday evening and will drag a strong cold front
through the area. We are expecting another shot of showers and
possible thunderstorms with the front. Confidence is then
increasing in a changeover to snow before precipitation ends later
Sunday night...especially at Joplin and Springfield.

As for winds, low level wind shear will continue for much of the
overnight period with brisk southeast surface winds. Brisk and
gusty west to northwest winds will then develop behind that cold
front...with gusts around 30 knots at times.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 230621
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1221 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 832 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

We have lowered PoPs for the remainder of this evening into the
early overnight period. We really are not seeing any sources of
sustained lift or focus to support organized shower activity.
Regional radar composite imagery confirms this with an overall
decreasing trend in rain shower activity.

Large scale lift will begin to increase late tonight as short wave
energy approaches the Arklatex region. We are therefore expecting
an uptick in shower activity late tonight with perhaps a rumble of
thunder or two.

One other final note regarding the tail end of this system. Models
(including the 00 UTC NAM) are showing an increasing signal for a
changeover to wet snow Sunday night before precipitation ends.
Given that air temperatures, ground temperatures, and road
temperatures will be above freezing, we are not expecting impacts
at this time. However, we could see some minor accumulations on
grassy surfaces...primarily along and north of the U.S. 60
corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

An upper level storm system was currently over the Big Bend of
Texas and slowly moving northeastward. This system is picking up
moisture from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. One shield of
rain and even isolated thunder will continue to move from Oklahoma
and northern Arkansas into southern Missouri through the evening
hours.

Another shield of rain with isolated thunder will develop late
tonight into Sunday morning and spread across the area. No severe
weather expected but light to occasional moderate downpours can
be expected through Sunday. There are no changes in the forecast
through Sunday. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the 50s
tonight and highs in the lower 60s tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A cold front will move through the area Sunday night along with
another upper level disturbance. This will bring the last round of
showers Sunday night. Model soundings indicate there may be just
enough cold air aloft and the mid levels late Sunday night for
some of the showers to mix with some wet snow before ending. This
will be mainly north of I-44 and temperatures will be in the
middle to upper 30s. If this does occur...there will be no
accumulations.

Skies will slowly clear Monday and turning windy. Temperatures
will struggle to reach the middle 40s. There will be a northwest
flow for most of next week. Temperatures will be below average and
a mostly dry forecast. There will be several dry frontal passages
to reinforce the cooler and dry air mass. Travelers on Wednesday
can expected quiet weather and dry weather around this area.
Thanksgiving looks cool and sunny. Slightly colder and dry weather
continues for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Flight conditions are expected to deteriorate from late tonight
into Sunday morning as a low pressure system approaches from the
southwest. Rain showers will also develop with the potential for
isolated thunderstorms Sunday morning. We are primarily expecting
MVFR conditions as the precipitation moves in with embedded
pockets of IFR.

The rain may then end for a time Sunday afternoon but pockets of
drizzle will remain possible. That low pressure will then move
through early Sunday evening and will drag a strong cold front
through the area. We are expecting another shot of showers and
possible thunderstorms with the front. Confidence is then
increasing in a changeover to snow before precipitation ends later
Sunday night...especially at Joplin and Springfield.

As for winds, low level wind shear will continue for much of the
overnight period with brisk southeast surface winds. Brisk and
gusty west to northwest winds will then develop behind that cold
front...with gusts around 30 knots at times.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 230621
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1221 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 832 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

We have lowered PoPs for the remainder of this evening into the
early overnight period. We really are not seeing any sources of
sustained lift or focus to support organized shower activity.
Regional radar composite imagery confirms this with an overall
decreasing trend in rain shower activity.

Large scale lift will begin to increase late tonight as short wave
energy approaches the Arklatex region. We are therefore expecting
an uptick in shower activity late tonight with perhaps a rumble of
thunder or two.

One other final note regarding the tail end of this system. Models
(including the 00 UTC NAM) are showing an increasing signal for a
changeover to wet snow Sunday night before precipitation ends.
Given that air temperatures, ground temperatures, and road
temperatures will be above freezing, we are not expecting impacts
at this time. However, we could see some minor accumulations on
grassy surfaces...primarily along and north of the U.S. 60
corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

An upper level storm system was currently over the Big Bend of
Texas and slowly moving northeastward. This system is picking up
moisture from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. One shield of
rain and even isolated thunder will continue to move from Oklahoma
and northern Arkansas into southern Missouri through the evening
hours.

Another shield of rain with isolated thunder will develop late
tonight into Sunday morning and spread across the area. No severe
weather expected but light to occasional moderate downpours can
be expected through Sunday. There are no changes in the forecast
through Sunday. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the 50s
tonight and highs in the lower 60s tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A cold front will move through the area Sunday night along with
another upper level disturbance. This will bring the last round of
showers Sunday night. Model soundings indicate there may be just
enough cold air aloft and the mid levels late Sunday night for
some of the showers to mix with some wet snow before ending. This
will be mainly north of I-44 and temperatures will be in the
middle to upper 30s. If this does occur...there will be no
accumulations.

Skies will slowly clear Monday and turning windy. Temperatures
will struggle to reach the middle 40s. There will be a northwest
flow for most of next week. Temperatures will be below average and
a mostly dry forecast. There will be several dry frontal passages
to reinforce the cooler and dry air mass. Travelers on Wednesday
can expected quiet weather and dry weather around this area.
Thanksgiving looks cool and sunny. Slightly colder and dry weather
continues for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Flight conditions are expected to deteriorate from late tonight
into Sunday morning as a low pressure system approaches from the
southwest. Rain showers will also develop with the potential for
isolated thunderstorms Sunday morning. We are primarily expecting
MVFR conditions as the precipitation moves in with embedded
pockets of IFR.

The rain may then end for a time Sunday afternoon but pockets of
drizzle will remain possible. That low pressure will then move
through early Sunday evening and will drag a strong cold front
through the area. We are expecting another shot of showers and
possible thunderstorms with the front. Confidence is then
increasing in a changeover to snow before precipitation ends later
Sunday night...especially at Joplin and Springfield.

As for winds, low level wind shear will continue for much of the
overnight period with brisk southeast surface winds. Brisk and
gusty west to northwest winds will then develop behind that cold
front...with gusts around 30 knots at times.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 230621
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1221 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 832 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

We have lowered PoPs for the remainder of this evening into the
early overnight period. We really are not seeing any sources of
sustained lift or focus to support organized shower activity.
Regional radar composite imagery confirms this with an overall
decreasing trend in rain shower activity.

Large scale lift will begin to increase late tonight as short wave
energy approaches the Arklatex region. We are therefore expecting
an uptick in shower activity late tonight with perhaps a rumble of
thunder or two.

One other final note regarding the tail end of this system. Models
(including the 00 UTC NAM) are showing an increasing signal for a
changeover to wet snow Sunday night before precipitation ends.
Given that air temperatures, ground temperatures, and road
temperatures will be above freezing, we are not expecting impacts
at this time. However, we could see some minor accumulations on
grassy surfaces...primarily along and north of the U.S. 60
corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

An upper level storm system was currently over the Big Bend of
Texas and slowly moving northeastward. This system is picking up
moisture from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. One shield of
rain and even isolated thunder will continue to move from Oklahoma
and northern Arkansas into southern Missouri through the evening
hours.

Another shield of rain with isolated thunder will develop late
tonight into Sunday morning and spread across the area. No severe
weather expected but light to occasional moderate downpours can
be expected through Sunday. There are no changes in the forecast
through Sunday. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the 50s
tonight and highs in the lower 60s tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A cold front will move through the area Sunday night along with
another upper level disturbance. This will bring the last round of
showers Sunday night. Model soundings indicate there may be just
enough cold air aloft and the mid levels late Sunday night for
some of the showers to mix with some wet snow before ending. This
will be mainly north of I-44 and temperatures will be in the
middle to upper 30s. If this does occur...there will be no
accumulations.

Skies will slowly clear Monday and turning windy. Temperatures
will struggle to reach the middle 40s. There will be a northwest
flow for most of next week. Temperatures will be below average and
a mostly dry forecast. There will be several dry frontal passages
to reinforce the cooler and dry air mass. Travelers on Wednesday
can expected quiet weather and dry weather around this area.
Thanksgiving looks cool and sunny. Slightly colder and dry weather
continues for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Flight conditions are expected to deteriorate from late tonight
into Sunday morning as a low pressure system approaches from the
southwest. Rain showers will also develop with the potential for
isolated thunderstorms Sunday morning. We are primarily expecting
MVFR conditions as the precipitation moves in with embedded
pockets of IFR.

The rain may then end for a time Sunday afternoon but pockets of
drizzle will remain possible. That low pressure will then move
through early Sunday evening and will drag a strong cold front
through the area. We are expecting another shot of showers and
possible thunderstorms with the front. Confidence is then
increasing in a changeover to snow before precipitation ends later
Sunday night...especially at Joplin and Springfield.

As for winds, low level wind shear will continue for much of the
overnight period with brisk southeast surface winds. Brisk and
gusty west to northwest winds will then develop behind that cold
front...with gusts around 30 knots at times.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KLSX 230607
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1207 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 639 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Have made some refinements to the POPS tonight into early Sunday
morning. The main axis of rain/showers this evening will reside
across southeast MO across southwest and south central IL within
the warm moist conveyor belt and ahead of a subtle impulse in the
southwest flow aloft. Further north and northwest across northeast
and central MO the chance of precipitation appears rather low
given the lack of any forcing, and if any occurs it will likely be
isolated or in the form of sprinkles or drizzle. The precipitation
threat will ramp up overnight however in central and northeast MO,
especially after 08-09z with large scale ascent associated with a
shortwave currently over TX moves northeastward into the area and
low level flow backs refocusing the lift westward. Lift and
showers/rain associated with this wave will overspread the entire
area early-mid Sunday morning.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Scattered showers are already moving across the southern half the
CWA this afternoon in an area of modest 925-850mb moisture
convergence ahead of the trough currently over the southern High
Plains.  Expect rain to become more widespread late this afternoon
into the early evening hours over the southern two thirds of the CWA
as the showers currently over southwest Missouri continue to move
northeast into the area.  This is being forced by an area of
stronger low level moisture convergence that the HRRR shows moving
across the area between 22-03Z.   While there will still continue to
be scattered showers elsewhere behind this area through late
evening, it still appears that better chances for more widespread
rain will move in from the west after midnight.  By that time, large
scale ascent and moisture convergence will be increasing ahead of the
aforementioned southern Plains trough that will be ejecting
northeastward ahead of longwave trough.  With clouds and warm air
advection tonight, stayed with lows that were close to going
temperatures and MOS guidance.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Rain and a few thunderstorms are expected on Sunday as a southern
stream, negatively tilted shortwave moves from eastern TX
northeastward into the TN and OH Valley regions, while a northern
stream upper level trough/low moves slowly east southeastward
through the northern Plains.  The models were depicting upper level
divergence over our area between a strong upper level jet streak
across the southern Plains and a weaker upper level jet streak over
the Great Lakes region.  The models have some discrepencies as to
the exact track of the deepening surface low, but at this time it
appears that it will move northeastward through or just north of the
STL area around 00z Monday.  There will be ample instability for at
least isolated thunderstorms on Sunday into Sunday evening,
especially across southeast MO and southwest IL.  Strong low level
cold air advection can be expected Sunday night after the passage of
the low and trailing cold front.  The threat for precipitation will
continue Sunday night as shortwaves rotate through our area south of
the main upper level low/trough over the northern Plains.  As the
colder air filters southeastward into the region the rain may change
over to light snow before ending late Sunday night/early Monday
morning across portions of northeast and central MO as well as west
central IL.  Most of the precipitation will shift east of our
forecast area by Monday, although there may be some lingering light
snow or flurries mainly across west central IL.  Much colder
temperatures can be expected for Monday, with nearly steady
temperatures, mainly in the middle 30s to lower 40s as the NAM and
ECMWF models drop the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward to STL.
The GFS model is even colder and quicker bringing the colder air
southeastward into our forecast area.  An unseasonably cold period
is expected through Tuesday night as a large amplitude positively
tilted upper level trough moves eastward through the central US.
The GFS and ECMWF models are still hinting at the possibility of a
northwest flow shortwave and associated weak surface low to bring a
quick shot of rain/snow to our area late Tuesday night and
Wednesday.  The models, particularly the GFS are not as cold for
Thanksgiving Day with the coldest air remaining just north of our
forecast area, although a strong surface ridge is still forecast to
build southeastward into the region from the northern Plains on
Thanksgiving.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: An approaching low pressure system will
bring widespread rainfall and IFR conditions to the area on
Sunday. Winds will become northwesterly behind a cold front
towards the end of the 24-hr TAF period at KUIN. Just beyond the
end of the TAF period, a brief period of light snow is possible
while precipitation is ending.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Despite several hours of
persistent light rainfall at night along with steadily increasing
surface dew points, ceilings have remained predominantly VFR at
the St. Louis metro area TAF sites over the last 6 hours. Most
perplexing. In any event, confidence in cig/vis trends is lower
during the first 0-6 hours of the TAF period compared to later,
when a strong low pressure system will bring widespread rainfall
and IFR conditions to the area. Conditions will deteriorate with
time, especially after 10-12z. Winds will become westerly to
northwesterly and increase behind a cold front towards the end of
the 30-hr TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 230607
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1207 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 639 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Have made some refinements to the POPS tonight into early Sunday
morning. The main axis of rain/showers this evening will reside
across southeast MO across southwest and south central IL within
the warm moist conveyor belt and ahead of a subtle impulse in the
southwest flow aloft. Further north and northwest across northeast
and central MO the chance of precipitation appears rather low
given the lack of any forcing, and if any occurs it will likely be
isolated or in the form of sprinkles or drizzle. The precipitation
threat will ramp up overnight however in central and northeast MO,
especially after 08-09z with large scale ascent associated with a
shortwave currently over TX moves northeastward into the area and
low level flow backs refocusing the lift westward. Lift and
showers/rain associated with this wave will overspread the entire
area early-mid Sunday morning.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Scattered showers are already moving across the southern half the
CWA this afternoon in an area of modest 925-850mb moisture
convergence ahead of the trough currently over the southern High
Plains.  Expect rain to become more widespread late this afternoon
into the early evening hours over the southern two thirds of the CWA
as the showers currently over southwest Missouri continue to move
northeast into the area.  This is being forced by an area of
stronger low level moisture convergence that the HRRR shows moving
across the area between 22-03Z.   While there will still continue to
be scattered showers elsewhere behind this area through late
evening, it still appears that better chances for more widespread
rain will move in from the west after midnight.  By that time, large
scale ascent and moisture convergence will be increasing ahead of the
aforementioned southern Plains trough that will be ejecting
northeastward ahead of longwave trough.  With clouds and warm air
advection tonight, stayed with lows that were close to going
temperatures and MOS guidance.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Rain and a few thunderstorms are expected on Sunday as a southern
stream, negatively tilted shortwave moves from eastern TX
northeastward into the TN and OH Valley regions, while a northern
stream upper level trough/low moves slowly east southeastward
through the northern Plains.  The models were depicting upper level
divergence over our area between a strong upper level jet streak
across the southern Plains and a weaker upper level jet streak over
the Great Lakes region.  The models have some discrepencies as to
the exact track of the deepening surface low, but at this time it
appears that it will move northeastward through or just north of the
STL area around 00z Monday.  There will be ample instability for at
least isolated thunderstorms on Sunday into Sunday evening,
especially across southeast MO and southwest IL.  Strong low level
cold air advection can be expected Sunday night after the passage of
the low and trailing cold front.  The threat for precipitation will
continue Sunday night as shortwaves rotate through our area south of
the main upper level low/trough over the northern Plains.  As the
colder air filters southeastward into the region the rain may change
over to light snow before ending late Sunday night/early Monday
morning across portions of northeast and central MO as well as west
central IL.  Most of the precipitation will shift east of our
forecast area by Monday, although there may be some lingering light
snow or flurries mainly across west central IL.  Much colder
temperatures can be expected for Monday, with nearly steady
temperatures, mainly in the middle 30s to lower 40s as the NAM and
ECMWF models drop the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward to STL.
The GFS model is even colder and quicker bringing the colder air
southeastward into our forecast area.  An unseasonably cold period
is expected through Tuesday night as a large amplitude positively
tilted upper level trough moves eastward through the central US.
The GFS and ECMWF models are still hinting at the possibility of a
northwest flow shortwave and associated weak surface low to bring a
quick shot of rain/snow to our area late Tuesday night and
Wednesday.  The models, particularly the GFS are not as cold for
Thanksgiving Day with the coldest air remaining just north of our
forecast area, although a strong surface ridge is still forecast to
build southeastward into the region from the northern Plains on
Thanksgiving.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: An approaching low pressure system will
bring widespread rainfall and IFR conditions to the area on
Sunday. Winds will become northwesterly behind a cold front
towards the end of the 24-hr TAF period at KUIN. Just beyond the
end of the TAF period, a brief period of light snow is possible
while precipitation is ending.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Despite several hours of
persistent light rainfall at night along with steadily increasing
surface dew points, ceilings have remained predominantly VFR at
the St. Louis metro area TAF sites over the last 6 hours. Most
perplexing. In any event, confidence in cig/vis trends is lower
during the first 0-6 hours of the TAF period compared to later,
when a strong low pressure system will bring widespread rainfall
and IFR conditions to the area. Conditions will deteriorate with
time, especially after 10-12z. Winds will become westerly to
northwesterly and increase behind a cold front towards the end of
the 30-hr TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 230545
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1145 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 559 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Not overly impressed on rain chances for this evening. Band of showers
remains well to the south of the CWA from central OK through south central
MO while ceilings have improved considerably across most of the CWA.
Even drizzle chances look puny this evening. Will have to wait for
the better dynamics to arrive after midnight as a piece of mid level
energy breaks away from the TX upper trough and heads northward.
Under this scenario see no need to carry evening PoPs so have
stripped them away for the most part.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Stratus and patchy light fog will continue this evening and tonight
as warm, moist air continues to flow into the region from the south.
Dense fog still looks possible across northern MO tonight and early
Sunday morning, but should eventually mix out by mid morning as a
shortwave trough approaches and the resultant surface low begins to
deepen over central MO.

The shortwave trough, currently over SW TX, is still progged to lift
into central TX this evening and into southeastern MO by Sunday
afternoon. Precipitation is still expected to focus near the surface
low in central to eastern MO; however, the second system that will
drop southeast out of the northern Plains on Sunday has sped up
slightly, making precipitation along and ahead of its associated
cold front a bit more likely as it pushes southeastward across the
CWA Sunday afternoon and evening. Precipitation type is still
expected to be primarily rain with most precipitation occurring where
surface wet bulb temperatures are around or in excess of +5 C, but a
brief, light rain/snow mix is possible for any precipitation that
trails behind the cold front. No snow accumulation is expected due
to warm ground temperatures and low moisture availability as the
systems sweep off to our east, and any light wrap-around snow on
Monday is expected to stay primarily north of our forecast area.

Temperatures will be chilly Monday and will remain below normal
through at least Thursday, as several additional shortwave troughs
dig into the central CONUS and reinforce northwest flow over the
CWA. Moisture will remain slim as these systems pass through, and
only a brief window of light snow is possible for far northern and
northeastern MO Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Otherwise,
temperatures look like they`ll start to gradually recover beyond the
end of the period as the longwave trough dug out by multiple
shortwave troughs exits to the east and zonal flow sets up over the
central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MVFR conditions will prevail initially with gradually diminishing
conditions expected through the period. Rain chances overnight are
marginal, but could see some spotty showers into the early morning
hours. Winds will gradually transition to NW as a cold front makes
its way through the area. Expecting to see further reduced ceilings
and visibilities as increased rain chances set up late Sunday
afternoon. Gusty NW winds will pick up coinciding with the frontal
passage. Also seeing evidence of a rain/snow mix event toward the very
end of the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KEAX 230545
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1145 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 559 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Not overly impressed on rain chances for this evening. Band of showers
remains well to the south of the CWA from central OK through south central
MO while ceilings have improved considerably across most of the CWA.
Even drizzle chances look puny this evening. Will have to wait for
the better dynamics to arrive after midnight as a piece of mid level
energy breaks away from the TX upper trough and heads northward.
Under this scenario see no need to carry evening PoPs so have
stripped them away for the most part.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Stratus and patchy light fog will continue this evening and tonight
as warm, moist air continues to flow into the region from the south.
Dense fog still looks possible across northern MO tonight and early
Sunday morning, but should eventually mix out by mid morning as a
shortwave trough approaches and the resultant surface low begins to
deepen over central MO.

The shortwave trough, currently over SW TX, is still progged to lift
into central TX this evening and into southeastern MO by Sunday
afternoon. Precipitation is still expected to focus near the surface
low in central to eastern MO; however, the second system that will
drop southeast out of the northern Plains on Sunday has sped up
slightly, making precipitation along and ahead of its associated
cold front a bit more likely as it pushes southeastward across the
CWA Sunday afternoon and evening. Precipitation type is still
expected to be primarily rain with most precipitation occurring where
surface wet bulb temperatures are around or in excess of +5 C, but a
brief, light rain/snow mix is possible for any precipitation that
trails behind the cold front. No snow accumulation is expected due
to warm ground temperatures and low moisture availability as the
systems sweep off to our east, and any light wrap-around snow on
Monday is expected to stay primarily north of our forecast area.

Temperatures will be chilly Monday and will remain below normal
through at least Thursday, as several additional shortwave troughs
dig into the central CONUS and reinforce northwest flow over the
CWA. Moisture will remain slim as these systems pass through, and
only a brief window of light snow is possible for far northern and
northeastern MO Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Otherwise,
temperatures look like they`ll start to gradually recover beyond the
end of the period as the longwave trough dug out by multiple
shortwave troughs exits to the east and zonal flow sets up over the
central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MVFR conditions will prevail initially with gradually diminishing
conditions expected through the period. Rain chances overnight are
marginal, but could see some spotty showers into the early morning
hours. Winds will gradually transition to NW as a cold front makes
its way through the area. Expecting to see further reduced ceilings
and visibilities as increased rain chances set up late Sunday
afternoon. Gusty NW winds will pick up coinciding with the frontal
passage. Also seeing evidence of a rain/snow mix event toward the very
end of the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KEAX 230545
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1145 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 559 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Not overly impressed on rain chances for this evening. Band of showers
remains well to the south of the CWA from central OK through south central
MO while ceilings have improved considerably across most of the CWA.
Even drizzle chances look puny this evening. Will have to wait for
the better dynamics to arrive after midnight as a piece of mid level
energy breaks away from the TX upper trough and heads northward.
Under this scenario see no need to carry evening PoPs so have
stripped them away for the most part.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Stratus and patchy light fog will continue this evening and tonight
as warm, moist air continues to flow into the region from the south.
Dense fog still looks possible across northern MO tonight and early
Sunday morning, but should eventually mix out by mid morning as a
shortwave trough approaches and the resultant surface low begins to
deepen over central MO.

The shortwave trough, currently over SW TX, is still progged to lift
into central TX this evening and into southeastern MO by Sunday
afternoon. Precipitation is still expected to focus near the surface
low in central to eastern MO; however, the second system that will
drop southeast out of the northern Plains on Sunday has sped up
slightly, making precipitation along and ahead of its associated
cold front a bit more likely as it pushes southeastward across the
CWA Sunday afternoon and evening. Precipitation type is still
expected to be primarily rain with most precipitation occurring where
surface wet bulb temperatures are around or in excess of +5 C, but a
brief, light rain/snow mix is possible for any precipitation that
trails behind the cold front. No snow accumulation is expected due
to warm ground temperatures and low moisture availability as the
systems sweep off to our east, and any light wrap-around snow on
Monday is expected to stay primarily north of our forecast area.

Temperatures will be chilly Monday and will remain below normal
through at least Thursday, as several additional shortwave troughs
dig into the central CONUS and reinforce northwest flow over the
CWA. Moisture will remain slim as these systems pass through, and
only a brief window of light snow is possible for far northern and
northeastern MO Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Otherwise,
temperatures look like they`ll start to gradually recover beyond the
end of the period as the longwave trough dug out by multiple
shortwave troughs exits to the east and zonal flow sets up over the
central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MVFR conditions will prevail initially with gradually diminishing
conditions expected through the period. Rain chances overnight are
marginal, but could see some spotty showers into the early morning
hours. Winds will gradually transition to NW as a cold front makes
its way through the area. Expecting to see further reduced ceilings
and visibilities as increased rain chances set up late Sunday
afternoon. Gusty NW winds will pick up coinciding with the frontal
passage. Also seeing evidence of a rain/snow mix event toward the very
end of the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KEAX 230545
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1145 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 559 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Not overly impressed on rain chances for this evening. Band of showers
remains well to the south of the CWA from central OK through south central
MO while ceilings have improved considerably across most of the CWA.
Even drizzle chances look puny this evening. Will have to wait for
the better dynamics to arrive after midnight as a piece of mid level
energy breaks away from the TX upper trough and heads northward.
Under this scenario see no need to carry evening PoPs so have
stripped them away for the most part.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Stratus and patchy light fog will continue this evening and tonight
as warm, moist air continues to flow into the region from the south.
Dense fog still looks possible across northern MO tonight and early
Sunday morning, but should eventually mix out by mid morning as a
shortwave trough approaches and the resultant surface low begins to
deepen over central MO.

The shortwave trough, currently over SW TX, is still progged to lift
into central TX this evening and into southeastern MO by Sunday
afternoon. Precipitation is still expected to focus near the surface
low in central to eastern MO; however, the second system that will
drop southeast out of the northern Plains on Sunday has sped up
slightly, making precipitation along and ahead of its associated
cold front a bit more likely as it pushes southeastward across the
CWA Sunday afternoon and evening. Precipitation type is still
expected to be primarily rain with most precipitation occurring where
surface wet bulb temperatures are around or in excess of +5 C, but a
brief, light rain/snow mix is possible for any precipitation that
trails behind the cold front. No snow accumulation is expected due
to warm ground temperatures and low moisture availability as the
systems sweep off to our east, and any light wrap-around snow on
Monday is expected to stay primarily north of our forecast area.

Temperatures will be chilly Monday and will remain below normal
through at least Thursday, as several additional shortwave troughs
dig into the central CONUS and reinforce northwest flow over the
CWA. Moisture will remain slim as these systems pass through, and
only a brief window of light snow is possible for far northern and
northeastern MO Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Otherwise,
temperatures look like they`ll start to gradually recover beyond the
end of the period as the longwave trough dug out by multiple
shortwave troughs exits to the east and zonal flow sets up over the
central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MVFR conditions will prevail initially with gradually diminishing
conditions expected through the period. Rain chances overnight are
marginal, but could see some spotty showers into the early morning
hours. Winds will gradually transition to NW as a cold front makes
its way through the area. Expecting to see further reduced ceilings
and visibilities as increased rain chances set up late Sunday
afternoon. Gusty NW winds will pick up coinciding with the frontal
passage. Also seeing evidence of a rain/snow mix event toward the very
end of the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KSGF 230307
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
907 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 832 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

We have lowered PoPs for the remainder of this evening into the
early overnight period. We really are not seeing any sources of
sustained lift or focus to support organized shower activity.
Regional radar composite imagery confirms this with an overall
decreasing trend in rain shower activity.

Large scale lift will begin to increase late tonight as short wave
energy approaches the Arklatex region. We are therefore expecting
an uptick in shower activity late tonight with perhaps a rumble of
thunder or two.

One other final note regarding the tail end of this system. Models
(including the 00 UTC NAM) are showing an increasing signal for a
changeover to wet snow Sunday night before precipitation ends.
Given that air temperatures, ground temperatures, and road
temperatures will be above freezing, we are not expecting impacts
at this time. However, we could see some minor accumulations on
grassy surfaces...primarily along and north of the U.S. 60
corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

An upper level storm system was currently over the Big Bend of
Texas and slowly moving northeastward. This system is picking up
moisture from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. One shield of
rain and even isolated thunder will continue to move from Oklahoma
and northern Arkansas into southern Missouri through the evening
hours.

Another shield of rain with isolated thunder will develop late
tonight into Sunday morning and spread across the area. No severe
weather expected but light to occasional moderate downpours can
be expected through Sunday. There are no changes in the forecast
through Sunday. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the 50s
tonight and highs in the lower 60s tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A cold front will move through the area Sunday night along with
another upper level disturbance. This will bring the last round of
showers Sunday night. Model soundings indicate there may be just
enough cold air aloft and the mid levels late Sunday night for
some of the showers to mix with some wet snow before ending. This
will be mainly north of I-44 and temperatures will be in the
middle to upper 30s. If this does occur...there will be no
accumulations.

Skies will slowly clear Monday and turning windy. Temperatures
will struggle to reach the middle 40s. There will be a northwest
flow for most of next week. Temperatures will be below average and
a mostly dry forecast. There will be several dry frontal passages
to reinforce the cooler and dry air mass. Travelers on Wednesday
can expected quiet weather and dry weather around this area.
Thanksgiving looks cool and sunny. Slightly colder and dry weather
continues for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

As has been the case over the last 36 hours, flight categories
will continue to oscillate through Sunday. Weather models
continue to offer a variety of possible scenarios...and have been
performing rather poorly of late. Thus, this forecast was heavily
based on regional observations and radar trends for the next six
hours...and then a model consensus beyond six hours.

We are therefore expecting a brief improvement in flight conditions
to VFR this evening with a return to MVFR or IFR late tonight.
Rain showers will continue early this evening around Branson,
otherwise most of tonight will be dry with the exception of a few
late night showers. We are then expecting an area of rain with a
few embedded thunderstorms Sunday morning. MVFR can be expected
with this activity, with pockets of IFR also possible. Another
round of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will then develop
across western Missouri Sunday afternoon as a cold front
approaches.

Low level wind shear will persist for much of tonight with surface
winds remaining brisk out of the south to southeast. Those winds
will shift to the west and then northwest from late Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening behind that cold front.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KLSX 230046
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
646 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 639 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Have made some refinements to the POPS tonight into early Sunday
morning. The main axis of rain/showers this evening will reside
across southeast MO across southwest and south central IL within
the warm moist conveyor belt and ahead of a subtle impulse in the
southwest flow aloft. Further north and northwest across northeast
and central MO the chance of precipitation appears rather low
given the lack of any forcing, and if any occurs it will likely be
isolated or in the form of sprinkles or drizzle. The precipitation
threat will ramp up overnight however in central and northeast MO,
especially after 08-09z with large scale ascent associated with a
shortwave currently over TX moves northeastward into the area and
low level flow backs refocusing the lift westward. Lift and
showers/rain associated with this wave will overspread the entire
area early-mid Sunday morning.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Scattered showers are already moving across the southern half the
CWA this afternoon in an area of modest 925-850mb moisture
convergence ahead of the trough currently over the southern High
Plains.  Expect rain to become more widespread late this afternoon
into the early evening hours over the southern two thirds of the CWA
as the showers currently over southwest Missouri continue to move
northeast into the area.  This is being forced by an area of
stronger low level moisture convergence that the HRRR shows moving
across the area between 22-03Z.   While there will still continue to
be scattered showers elsewhere behind this area through late
evening, it still appears that better chances for more widespread
rain will move in from the west after midnight.  By that time, large
scale ascent and moisture convergence will be increasing ahead of the
aforementioned southern Plains trough that will be ejecting
northeastward ahead of longwave trough.  With clouds and warm air
advection tonight, stayed with lows that were close to going
temperatures and MOS guidance.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Rain and a few thunderstorms are expected on Sunday as a southern
stream, negatively tilted shortwave moves from eastern TX
northeastward into the TN and OH Valley regions, while a northern
stream upper level trough/low moves slowly east southeastward
through the northern Plains.  The models were depicting upper level
divergence over our area between a strong upper level jet streak
across the southern Plains and a weaker upper level jet streak over
the Great Lakes region.  The models have some discrepencies as to
the exact track of the deepening surface low, but at this time it
appears that it will move northeastward through or just north of the
STL area around 00z Monday.  There will be ample instability for at
least isolated thunderstorms on Sunday into Sunday evening,
especially across southeast MO and southwest IL.  Strong low level
cold air advection can be expected Sunday night after the passage of
the low and trailing cold front.  The threat for precipitation will
continue Sunday night as shortwaves rotate through our area south of
the main upper level low/trough over the northern Plains.  As the
colder air filters southeastward into the region the rain may change
over to light snow before ending late Sunday night/early Monday
morning across portions of northeast and central MO as well as west
central IL.  Most of the precipitation will shift east of our
forecast area by Monday, although there may be some lingering light
snow or flurries mainly across west central IL.  Much colder
temperatures can be expected for Monday, with nearly steady
temperatures, mainly in the middle 30s to lower 40s as the NAM and
ECMWF models drop the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward to STL.
The GFS model is even colder and quicker bringing the colder air
southeastward into our forecast area.  An unseasonably cold period
is expected through Tuesday night as a large amplitude positively
tilted upper level trough moves eastward through the central US.
The GFS and ECMWF models are still hinting at the possibility of a
northwest flow shortwave and associated weak surface low to bring a
quick shot of rain/snow to our area late Tuesday night and
Wednesday.  The models, particularly the GFS are not as cold for
Thanksgiving Day with the coldest air remaining just north of our
forecast area, although a strong surface ridge is still forecast to
build southeastward into the region from the northern Plains on
Thanksgiving.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 522 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Conditions may initially bounce between
MVFR and VFR early in the TAF period, but any improvement to VFR should
be temporary based on a broader cig/vis analysis and moisture
forecasts. An approaching low pressure system will bring
widespread rain to KCOU and KUIN on Sunday, and conditions are
expected to fall to IFR. Precipitation should end with the passage
of a cold front beyond the end of the 24-hr TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: An area of rain showers was moving
northeastwards across the St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF
issuance. Ceilings will probably bounce between VFR and MVFR
before falling solidly into MVFR with the arrival of the rain.
Much more widespread rain is expected on Sunday ahead of a low
pressure system, and conditions will likely fall to IFR during
this time. Rain should end on Sunday night with the arrival of a
cold front.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 230046
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
646 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 639 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Have made some refinements to the POPS tonight into early Sunday
morning. The main axis of rain/showers this evening will reside
across southeast MO across southwest and south central IL within
the warm moist conveyor belt and ahead of a subtle impulse in the
southwest flow aloft. Further north and northwest across northeast
and central MO the chance of precipitation appears rather low
given the lack of any forcing, and if any occurs it will likely be
isolated or in the form of sprinkles or drizzle. The precipitation
threat will ramp up overnight however in central and northeast MO,
especially after 08-09z with large scale ascent associated with a
shortwave currently over TX moves northeastward into the area and
low level flow backs refocusing the lift westward. Lift and
showers/rain associated with this wave will overspread the entire
area early-mid Sunday morning.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Scattered showers are already moving across the southern half the
CWA this afternoon in an area of modest 925-850mb moisture
convergence ahead of the trough currently over the southern High
Plains.  Expect rain to become more widespread late this afternoon
into the early evening hours over the southern two thirds of the CWA
as the showers currently over southwest Missouri continue to move
northeast into the area.  This is being forced by an area of
stronger low level moisture convergence that the HRRR shows moving
across the area between 22-03Z.   While there will still continue to
be scattered showers elsewhere behind this area through late
evening, it still appears that better chances for more widespread
rain will move in from the west after midnight.  By that time, large
scale ascent and moisture convergence will be increasing ahead of the
aforementioned southern Plains trough that will be ejecting
northeastward ahead of longwave trough.  With clouds and warm air
advection tonight, stayed with lows that were close to going
temperatures and MOS guidance.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Rain and a few thunderstorms are expected on Sunday as a southern
stream, negatively tilted shortwave moves from eastern TX
northeastward into the TN and OH Valley regions, while a northern
stream upper level trough/low moves slowly east southeastward
through the northern Plains.  The models were depicting upper level
divergence over our area between a strong upper level jet streak
across the southern Plains and a weaker upper level jet streak over
the Great Lakes region.  The models have some discrepencies as to
the exact track of the deepening surface low, but at this time it
appears that it will move northeastward through or just north of the
STL area around 00z Monday.  There will be ample instability for at
least isolated thunderstorms on Sunday into Sunday evening,
especially across southeast MO and southwest IL.  Strong low level
cold air advection can be expected Sunday night after the passage of
the low and trailing cold front.  The threat for precipitation will
continue Sunday night as shortwaves rotate through our area south of
the main upper level low/trough over the northern Plains.  As the
colder air filters southeastward into the region the rain may change
over to light snow before ending late Sunday night/early Monday
morning across portions of northeast and central MO as well as west
central IL.  Most of the precipitation will shift east of our
forecast area by Monday, although there may be some lingering light
snow or flurries mainly across west central IL.  Much colder
temperatures can be expected for Monday, with nearly steady
temperatures, mainly in the middle 30s to lower 40s as the NAM and
ECMWF models drop the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward to STL.
The GFS model is even colder and quicker bringing the colder air
southeastward into our forecast area.  An unseasonably cold period
is expected through Tuesday night as a large amplitude positively
tilted upper level trough moves eastward through the central US.
The GFS and ECMWF models are still hinting at the possibility of a
northwest flow shortwave and associated weak surface low to bring a
quick shot of rain/snow to our area late Tuesday night and
Wednesday.  The models, particularly the GFS are not as cold for
Thanksgiving Day with the coldest air remaining just north of our
forecast area, although a strong surface ridge is still forecast to
build southeastward into the region from the northern Plains on
Thanksgiving.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 522 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Conditions may initially bounce between
MVFR and VFR early in the TAF period, but any improvement to VFR should
be temporary based on a broader cig/vis analysis and moisture
forecasts. An approaching low pressure system will bring
widespread rain to KCOU and KUIN on Sunday, and conditions are
expected to fall to IFR. Precipitation should end with the passage
of a cold front beyond the end of the 24-hr TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: An area of rain showers was moving
northeastwards across the St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF
issuance. Ceilings will probably bounce between VFR and MVFR
before falling solidly into MVFR with the arrival of the rain.
Much more widespread rain is expected on Sunday ahead of a low
pressure system, and conditions will likely fall to IFR during
this time. Rain should end on Sunday night with the arrival of a
cold front.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 230046
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
646 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 639 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Have made some refinements to the POPS tonight into early Sunday
morning. The main axis of rain/showers this evening will reside
across southeast MO across southwest and south central IL within
the warm moist conveyor belt and ahead of a subtle impulse in the
southwest flow aloft. Further north and northwest across northeast
and central MO the chance of precipitation appears rather low
given the lack of any forcing, and if any occurs it will likely be
isolated or in the form of sprinkles or drizzle. The precipitation
threat will ramp up overnight however in central and northeast MO,
especially after 08-09z with large scale ascent associated with a
shortwave currently over TX moves northeastward into the area and
low level flow backs refocusing the lift westward. Lift and
showers/rain associated with this wave will overspread the entire
area early-mid Sunday morning.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Scattered showers are already moving across the southern half the
CWA this afternoon in an area of modest 925-850mb moisture
convergence ahead of the trough currently over the southern High
Plains.  Expect rain to become more widespread late this afternoon
into the early evening hours over the southern two thirds of the CWA
as the showers currently over southwest Missouri continue to move
northeast into the area.  This is being forced by an area of
stronger low level moisture convergence that the HRRR shows moving
across the area between 22-03Z.   While there will still continue to
be scattered showers elsewhere behind this area through late
evening, it still appears that better chances for more widespread
rain will move in from the west after midnight.  By that time, large
scale ascent and moisture convergence will be increasing ahead of the
aforementioned southern Plains trough that will be ejecting
northeastward ahead of longwave trough.  With clouds and warm air
advection tonight, stayed with lows that were close to going
temperatures and MOS guidance.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Rain and a few thunderstorms are expected on Sunday as a southern
stream, negatively tilted shortwave moves from eastern TX
northeastward into the TN and OH Valley regions, while a northern
stream upper level trough/low moves slowly east southeastward
through the northern Plains.  The models were depicting upper level
divergence over our area between a strong upper level jet streak
across the southern Plains and a weaker upper level jet streak over
the Great Lakes region.  The models have some discrepencies as to
the exact track of the deepening surface low, but at this time it
appears that it will move northeastward through or just north of the
STL area around 00z Monday.  There will be ample instability for at
least isolated thunderstorms on Sunday into Sunday evening,
especially across southeast MO and southwest IL.  Strong low level
cold air advection can be expected Sunday night after the passage of
the low and trailing cold front.  The threat for precipitation will
continue Sunday night as shortwaves rotate through our area south of
the main upper level low/trough over the northern Plains.  As the
colder air filters southeastward into the region the rain may change
over to light snow before ending late Sunday night/early Monday
morning across portions of northeast and central MO as well as west
central IL.  Most of the precipitation will shift east of our
forecast area by Monday, although there may be some lingering light
snow or flurries mainly across west central IL.  Much colder
temperatures can be expected for Monday, with nearly steady
temperatures, mainly in the middle 30s to lower 40s as the NAM and
ECMWF models drop the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward to STL.
The GFS model is even colder and quicker bringing the colder air
southeastward into our forecast area.  An unseasonably cold period
is expected through Tuesday night as a large amplitude positively
tilted upper level trough moves eastward through the central US.
The GFS and ECMWF models are still hinting at the possibility of a
northwest flow shortwave and associated weak surface low to bring a
quick shot of rain/snow to our area late Tuesday night and
Wednesday.  The models, particularly the GFS are not as cold for
Thanksgiving Day with the coldest air remaining just north of our
forecast area, although a strong surface ridge is still forecast to
build southeastward into the region from the northern Plains on
Thanksgiving.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 522 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Conditions may initially bounce between
MVFR and VFR early in the TAF period, but any improvement to VFR should
be temporary based on a broader cig/vis analysis and moisture
forecasts. An approaching low pressure system will bring
widespread rain to KCOU and KUIN on Sunday, and conditions are
expected to fall to IFR. Precipitation should end with the passage
of a cold front beyond the end of the 24-hr TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: An area of rain showers was moving
northeastwards across the St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF
issuance. Ceilings will probably bounce between VFR and MVFR
before falling solidly into MVFR with the arrival of the rain.
Much more widespread rain is expected on Sunday ahead of a low
pressure system, and conditions will likely fall to IFR during
this time. Rain should end on Sunday night with the arrival of a
cold front.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 230046
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
646 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 639 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Have made some refinements to the POPS tonight into early Sunday
morning. The main axis of rain/showers this evening will reside
across southeast MO across southwest and south central IL within
the warm moist conveyor belt and ahead of a subtle impulse in the
southwest flow aloft. Further north and northwest across northeast
and central MO the chance of precipitation appears rather low
given the lack of any forcing, and if any occurs it will likely be
isolated or in the form of sprinkles or drizzle. The precipitation
threat will ramp up overnight however in central and northeast MO,
especially after 08-09z with large scale ascent associated with a
shortwave currently over TX moves northeastward into the area and
low level flow backs refocusing the lift westward. Lift and
showers/rain associated with this wave will overspread the entire
area early-mid Sunday morning.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Scattered showers are already moving across the southern half the
CWA this afternoon in an area of modest 925-850mb moisture
convergence ahead of the trough currently over the southern High
Plains.  Expect rain to become more widespread late this afternoon
into the early evening hours over the southern two thirds of the CWA
as the showers currently over southwest Missouri continue to move
northeast into the area.  This is being forced by an area of
stronger low level moisture convergence that the HRRR shows moving
across the area between 22-03Z.   While there will still continue to
be scattered showers elsewhere behind this area through late
evening, it still appears that better chances for more widespread
rain will move in from the west after midnight.  By that time, large
scale ascent and moisture convergence will be increasing ahead of the
aforementioned southern Plains trough that will be ejecting
northeastward ahead of longwave trough.  With clouds and warm air
advection tonight, stayed with lows that were close to going
temperatures and MOS guidance.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Rain and a few thunderstorms are expected on Sunday as a southern
stream, negatively tilted shortwave moves from eastern TX
northeastward into the TN and OH Valley regions, while a northern
stream upper level trough/low moves slowly east southeastward
through the northern Plains.  The models were depicting upper level
divergence over our area between a strong upper level jet streak
across the southern Plains and a weaker upper level jet streak over
the Great Lakes region.  The models have some discrepencies as to
the exact track of the deepening surface low, but at this time it
appears that it will move northeastward through or just north of the
STL area around 00z Monday.  There will be ample instability for at
least isolated thunderstorms on Sunday into Sunday evening,
especially across southeast MO and southwest IL.  Strong low level
cold air advection can be expected Sunday night after the passage of
the low and trailing cold front.  The threat for precipitation will
continue Sunday night as shortwaves rotate through our area south of
the main upper level low/trough over the northern Plains.  As the
colder air filters southeastward into the region the rain may change
over to light snow before ending late Sunday night/early Monday
morning across portions of northeast and central MO as well as west
central IL.  Most of the precipitation will shift east of our
forecast area by Monday, although there may be some lingering light
snow or flurries mainly across west central IL.  Much colder
temperatures can be expected for Monday, with nearly steady
temperatures, mainly in the middle 30s to lower 40s as the NAM and
ECMWF models drop the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward to STL.
The GFS model is even colder and quicker bringing the colder air
southeastward into our forecast area.  An unseasonably cold period
is expected through Tuesday night as a large amplitude positively
tilted upper level trough moves eastward through the central US.
The GFS and ECMWF models are still hinting at the possibility of a
northwest flow shortwave and associated weak surface low to bring a
quick shot of rain/snow to our area late Tuesday night and
Wednesday.  The models, particularly the GFS are not as cold for
Thanksgiving Day with the coldest air remaining just north of our
forecast area, although a strong surface ridge is still forecast to
build southeastward into the region from the northern Plains on
Thanksgiving.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 522 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Conditions may initially bounce between
MVFR and VFR early in the TAF period, but any improvement to VFR should
be temporary based on a broader cig/vis analysis and moisture
forecasts. An approaching low pressure system will bring
widespread rain to KCOU and KUIN on Sunday, and conditions are
expected to fall to IFR. Precipitation should end with the passage
of a cold front beyond the end of the 24-hr TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: An area of rain showers was moving
northeastwards across the St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF
issuance. Ceilings will probably bounce between VFR and MVFR
before falling solidly into MVFR with the arrival of the rain.
Much more widespread rain is expected on Sunday ahead of a low
pressure system, and conditions will likely fall to IFR during
this time. Rain should end on Sunday night with the arrival of a
cold front.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 230005
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
605 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 559 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Not overly impressed on rain chances for this evening. Band of showers
remains well to the south of the CWA from central OK through south central
MO while ceilings have improved considerably across most of the CWA.
Even drizzle chances look puny this evening. Will have to wait for
the better dynamics to arrive after midnight as a piece of mid level
energy breaks away from the TX upper trough and heads northward.
Under this scenario see no need to carry evening PoPs so have
stripped them away for the most part.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Stratus and patchy light fog will continue this evening and tonight
as warm, moist air continues to flow into the region from the south.
Dense fog still looks possible across northern MO tonight and early
Sunday morning, but should eventually mix out by mid morning as a
shortwave trough approaches and the resultant surface low begins to
deepen over central MO.

The shortwave trough, currently over SW TX, is still progged to lift
into central TX this evening and into southeastern MO by Sunday
afternoon. Precipitation is still expected to focus near the surface
low in central to eastern MO; however, the second system that will
drop southeast out of the northern Plains on Sunday has sped up
slightly, making precipitation along and ahead of its associated
cold front a bit more likely as it pushes southeastward across the
CWA Sunday afternoon and evening. Precipitation type is still
expected to be primarily rain with most precipitation occurring where
surface wet bulb temperatures are around or in excess of +5 C, but a
brief, light rain/snow mix is possible for any precipitation that
trails behind the cold front. No snow accumulation is expected due
to warm ground temperatures and low moisture availability as the
systems sweep off to our east, and any light wrap-around snow on
Monday is expected to stay primarily north of our forecast area.

Temperatures will be chilly Monday and will remain below normal
through at least Thursday, as several additional shortwave troughs
dig into the central CONUS and reinforce northwest flow over the
CWA. Moisture will remain slim as these systems pass through, and
only a brief window of light snow is possible for far northern and
northeastern MO Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Otherwise,
temperatures look like they`ll start to gradually recover beyond the
end of the period as the longwave trough dug out by multiple
shortwave troughs exits to the east and zonal flow sets up over the
central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 516 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MVFR conditions expected through the initial period. Ceilings will
continue to improve through Saturday evening but will fill back in
overnight as moisture steadily surges in from the south. Will see the
development of fog overnight as temperatures decrease with a period
of IFR ceiling heights. Cold front will make its arrival over the
terminals Sunday afternoon. Light rain showers along the boundary with
gusty NW winds will persist through the end of the forecast period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 230005
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
605 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 559 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Not overly impressed on rain chances for this evening. Band of showers
remains well to the south of the CWA from central OK through south central
MO while ceilings have improved considerably across most of the CWA.
Even drizzle chances look puny this evening. Will have to wait for
the better dynamics to arrive after midnight as a piece of mid level
energy breaks away from the TX upper trough and heads northward.
Under this scenario see no need to carry evening PoPs so have
stripped them away for the most part.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Stratus and patchy light fog will continue this evening and tonight
as warm, moist air continues to flow into the region from the south.
Dense fog still looks possible across northern MO tonight and early
Sunday morning, but should eventually mix out by mid morning as a
shortwave trough approaches and the resultant surface low begins to
deepen over central MO.

The shortwave trough, currently over SW TX, is still progged to lift
into central TX this evening and into southeastern MO by Sunday
afternoon. Precipitation is still expected to focus near the surface
low in central to eastern MO; however, the second system that will
drop southeast out of the northern Plains on Sunday has sped up
slightly, making precipitation along and ahead of its associated
cold front a bit more likely as it pushes southeastward across the
CWA Sunday afternoon and evening. Precipitation type is still
expected to be primarily rain with most precipitation occurring where
surface wet bulb temperatures are around or in excess of +5 C, but a
brief, light rain/snow mix is possible for any precipitation that
trails behind the cold front. No snow accumulation is expected due
to warm ground temperatures and low moisture availability as the
systems sweep off to our east, and any light wrap-around snow on
Monday is expected to stay primarily north of our forecast area.

Temperatures will be chilly Monday and will remain below normal
through at least Thursday, as several additional shortwave troughs
dig into the central CONUS and reinforce northwest flow over the
CWA. Moisture will remain slim as these systems pass through, and
only a brief window of light snow is possible for far northern and
northeastern MO Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Otherwise,
temperatures look like they`ll start to gradually recover beyond the
end of the period as the longwave trough dug out by multiple
shortwave troughs exits to the east and zonal flow sets up over the
central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 516 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MVFR conditions expected through the initial period. Ceilings will
continue to improve through Saturday evening but will fill back in
overnight as moisture steadily surges in from the south. Will see the
development of fog overnight as temperatures decrease with a period
of IFR ceiling heights. Cold front will make its arrival over the
terminals Sunday afternoon. Light rain showers along the boundary with
gusty NW winds will persist through the end of the forecast period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 230005
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
605 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 559 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Not overly impressed on rain chances for this evening. Band of showers
remains well to the south of the CWA from central OK through south central
MO while ceilings have improved considerably across most of the CWA.
Even drizzle chances look puny this evening. Will have to wait for
the better dynamics to arrive after midnight as a piece of mid level
energy breaks away from the TX upper trough and heads northward.
Under this scenario see no need to carry evening PoPs so have
stripped them away for the most part.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Stratus and patchy light fog will continue this evening and tonight
as warm, moist air continues to flow into the region from the south.
Dense fog still looks possible across northern MO tonight and early
Sunday morning, but should eventually mix out by mid morning as a
shortwave trough approaches and the resultant surface low begins to
deepen over central MO.

The shortwave trough, currently over SW TX, is still progged to lift
into central TX this evening and into southeastern MO by Sunday
afternoon. Precipitation is still expected to focus near the surface
low in central to eastern MO; however, the second system that will
drop southeast out of the northern Plains on Sunday has sped up
slightly, making precipitation along and ahead of its associated
cold front a bit more likely as it pushes southeastward across the
CWA Sunday afternoon and evening. Precipitation type is still
expected to be primarily rain with most precipitation occurring where
surface wet bulb temperatures are around or in excess of +5 C, but a
brief, light rain/snow mix is possible for any precipitation that
trails behind the cold front. No snow accumulation is expected due
to warm ground temperatures and low moisture availability as the
systems sweep off to our east, and any light wrap-around snow on
Monday is expected to stay primarily north of our forecast area.

Temperatures will be chilly Monday and will remain below normal
through at least Thursday, as several additional shortwave troughs
dig into the central CONUS and reinforce northwest flow over the
CWA. Moisture will remain slim as these systems pass through, and
only a brief window of light snow is possible for far northern and
northeastern MO Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Otherwise,
temperatures look like they`ll start to gradually recover beyond the
end of the period as the longwave trough dug out by multiple
shortwave troughs exits to the east and zonal flow sets up over the
central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 516 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MVFR conditions expected through the initial period. Ceilings will
continue to improve through Saturday evening but will fill back in
overnight as moisture steadily surges in from the south. Will see the
development of fog overnight as temperatures decrease with a period
of IFR ceiling heights. Cold front will make its arrival over the
terminals Sunday afternoon. Light rain showers along the boundary with
gusty NW winds will persist through the end of the forecast period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 230005
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
605 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 559 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Not overly impressed on rain chances for this evening. Band of showers
remains well to the south of the CWA from central OK through south central
MO while ceilings have improved considerably across most of the CWA.
Even drizzle chances look puny this evening. Will have to wait for
the better dynamics to arrive after midnight as a piece of mid level
energy breaks away from the TX upper trough and heads northward.
Under this scenario see no need to carry evening PoPs so have
stripped them away for the most part.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Stratus and patchy light fog will continue this evening and tonight
as warm, moist air continues to flow into the region from the south.
Dense fog still looks possible across northern MO tonight and early
Sunday morning, but should eventually mix out by mid morning as a
shortwave trough approaches and the resultant surface low begins to
deepen over central MO.

The shortwave trough, currently over SW TX, is still progged to lift
into central TX this evening and into southeastern MO by Sunday
afternoon. Precipitation is still expected to focus near the surface
low in central to eastern MO; however, the second system that will
drop southeast out of the northern Plains on Sunday has sped up
slightly, making precipitation along and ahead of its associated
cold front a bit more likely as it pushes southeastward across the
CWA Sunday afternoon and evening. Precipitation type is still
expected to be primarily rain with most precipitation occurring where
surface wet bulb temperatures are around or in excess of +5 C, but a
brief, light rain/snow mix is possible for any precipitation that
trails behind the cold front. No snow accumulation is expected due
to warm ground temperatures and low moisture availability as the
systems sweep off to our east, and any light wrap-around snow on
Monday is expected to stay primarily north of our forecast area.

Temperatures will be chilly Monday and will remain below normal
through at least Thursday, as several additional shortwave troughs
dig into the central CONUS and reinforce northwest flow over the
CWA. Moisture will remain slim as these systems pass through, and
only a brief window of light snow is possible for far northern and
northeastern MO Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Otherwise,
temperatures look like they`ll start to gradually recover beyond the
end of the period as the longwave trough dug out by multiple
shortwave troughs exits to the east and zonal flow sets up over the
central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 516 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MVFR conditions expected through the initial period. Ceilings will
continue to improve through Saturday evening but will fill back in
overnight as moisture steadily surges in from the south. Will see the
development of fog overnight as temperatures decrease with a period
of IFR ceiling heights. Cold front will make its arrival over the
terminals Sunday afternoon. Light rain showers along the boundary with
gusty NW winds will persist through the end of the forecast period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KSGF 230003
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
603 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

An upper level storm system was currently over the Big Bend of
Texas and slowly moving northeastward. This system is picking up
moisture from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. One shield of
rain and even isolated thunder will continue to move from Oklahoma
and northern Arkansas into southern Missouri through the evening
hours.

Another shield of rain with isolated thunder will develop late
tonight into Sunday morning and spread across the area. No severe
weather expected but light to occasional moderate downpours can
be expected through Sunday. There are no changes in the forecast
through Sunday. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the 50s
tonight and highs in the lower 60s tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A cold front will move through the area Sunday night along with
another upper level disturbance. This will bring the last round of
showers Sunday night. Model soundings indicate there may be just
enough cold air aloft and the mid levels late Sunday night for
some of the showers to mix with some wet snow before ending. This
will be mainly north of I-44 and temperatures will be in the
middle to upper 30s. If this does occur...there will be no
accumulations.

Skies will slowly clear Monday and turning windy. Temperatures
will struggle to reach the middle 40s. There will be a northwest
flow for most of next week. Temperatures will be below average and
a mostly dry forecast. There will be several dry frontal passages
to reinforce the cooler and dry air mass. Travelers on Wednesday
can expected quiet weather and dry weather around this area.
Thanksgiving looks cool and sunny. Slightly colder and dry weather
continues for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

As has been the case over the last 36 hours, flight categories
will continue to oscillate through Sunday. Weather models
continue to offer a variety of possible scenarios...and have been
performing rather poorly of late. Thus, this forecast was heavily
based on regional observations and radar trends for the next six
hours...and then a model consensus beyond six hours.

We are therefore expecting a brief improvement in flight conditions
to VFR this evening with a return to MVFR or IFR late tonight.
Rain showers will continue early this evening around Branson,
otherwise most of tonight will be dry with the exception of a few
late night showers. We are then expecting an area of rain with a
few embedded thunderstorms Sunday morning. MVFR can be expected
with this activity, with pockets of IFR also possible. Another
round of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will then develop
across western Missouri Sunday afternoon as a cold front
approaches.

Low level wind shear will persist for much of tonight with surface
winds remaining brisk out of the south to southeast. Those winds
will shift to the west and then northwest from late Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening behind that cold front.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 230003
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
603 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

An upper level storm system was currently over the Big Bend of
Texas and slowly moving northeastward. This system is picking up
moisture from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. One shield of
rain and even isolated thunder will continue to move from Oklahoma
and northern Arkansas into southern Missouri through the evening
hours.

Another shield of rain with isolated thunder will develop late
tonight into Sunday morning and spread across the area. No severe
weather expected but light to occasional moderate downpours can
be expected through Sunday. There are no changes in the forecast
through Sunday. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the 50s
tonight and highs in the lower 60s tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A cold front will move through the area Sunday night along with
another upper level disturbance. This will bring the last round of
showers Sunday night. Model soundings indicate there may be just
enough cold air aloft and the mid levels late Sunday night for
some of the showers to mix with some wet snow before ending. This
will be mainly north of I-44 and temperatures will be in the
middle to upper 30s. If this does occur...there will be no
accumulations.

Skies will slowly clear Monday and turning windy. Temperatures
will struggle to reach the middle 40s. There will be a northwest
flow for most of next week. Temperatures will be below average and
a mostly dry forecast. There will be several dry frontal passages
to reinforce the cooler and dry air mass. Travelers on Wednesday
can expected quiet weather and dry weather around this area.
Thanksgiving looks cool and sunny. Slightly colder and dry weather
continues for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

As has been the case over the last 36 hours, flight categories
will continue to oscillate through Sunday. Weather models
continue to offer a variety of possible scenarios...and have been
performing rather poorly of late. Thus, this forecast was heavily
based on regional observations and radar trends for the next six
hours...and then a model consensus beyond six hours.

We are therefore expecting a brief improvement in flight conditions
to VFR this evening with a return to MVFR or IFR late tonight.
Rain showers will continue early this evening around Branson,
otherwise most of tonight will be dry with the exception of a few
late night showers. We are then expecting an area of rain with a
few embedded thunderstorms Sunday morning. MVFR can be expected
with this activity, with pockets of IFR also possible. Another
round of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will then develop
across western Missouri Sunday afternoon as a cold front
approaches.

Low level wind shear will persist for much of tonight with surface
winds remaining brisk out of the south to southeast. Those winds
will shift to the west and then northwest from late Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening behind that cold front.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 230003
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
603 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

An upper level storm system was currently over the Big Bend of
Texas and slowly moving northeastward. This system is picking up
moisture from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. One shield of
rain and even isolated thunder will continue to move from Oklahoma
and northern Arkansas into southern Missouri through the evening
hours.

Another shield of rain with isolated thunder will develop late
tonight into Sunday morning and spread across the area. No severe
weather expected but light to occasional moderate downpours can
be expected through Sunday. There are no changes in the forecast
through Sunday. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the 50s
tonight and highs in the lower 60s tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A cold front will move through the area Sunday night along with
another upper level disturbance. This will bring the last round of
showers Sunday night. Model soundings indicate there may be just
enough cold air aloft and the mid levels late Sunday night for
some of the showers to mix with some wet snow before ending. This
will be mainly north of I-44 and temperatures will be in the
middle to upper 30s. If this does occur...there will be no
accumulations.

Skies will slowly clear Monday and turning windy. Temperatures
will struggle to reach the middle 40s. There will be a northwest
flow for most of next week. Temperatures will be below average and
a mostly dry forecast. There will be several dry frontal passages
to reinforce the cooler and dry air mass. Travelers on Wednesday
can expected quiet weather and dry weather around this area.
Thanksgiving looks cool and sunny. Slightly colder and dry weather
continues for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

As has been the case over the last 36 hours, flight categories
will continue to oscillate through Sunday. Weather models
continue to offer a variety of possible scenarios...and have been
performing rather poorly of late. Thus, this forecast was heavily
based on regional observations and radar trends for the next six
hours...and then a model consensus beyond six hours.

We are therefore expecting a brief improvement in flight conditions
to VFR this evening with a return to MVFR or IFR late tonight.
Rain showers will continue early this evening around Branson,
otherwise most of tonight will be dry with the exception of a few
late night showers. We are then expecting an area of rain with a
few embedded thunderstorms Sunday morning. MVFR can be expected
with this activity, with pockets of IFR also possible. Another
round of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will then develop
across western Missouri Sunday afternoon as a cold front
approaches.

Low level wind shear will persist for much of tonight with surface
winds remaining brisk out of the south to southeast. Those winds
will shift to the west and then northwest from late Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening behind that cold front.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 230003
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
603 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

An upper level storm system was currently over the Big Bend of
Texas and slowly moving northeastward. This system is picking up
moisture from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. One shield of
rain and even isolated thunder will continue to move from Oklahoma
and northern Arkansas into southern Missouri through the evening
hours.

Another shield of rain with isolated thunder will develop late
tonight into Sunday morning and spread across the area. No severe
weather expected but light to occasional moderate downpours can
be expected through Sunday. There are no changes in the forecast
through Sunday. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the 50s
tonight and highs in the lower 60s tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A cold front will move through the area Sunday night along with
another upper level disturbance. This will bring the last round of
showers Sunday night. Model soundings indicate there may be just
enough cold air aloft and the mid levels late Sunday night for
some of the showers to mix with some wet snow before ending. This
will be mainly north of I-44 and temperatures will be in the
middle to upper 30s. If this does occur...there will be no
accumulations.

Skies will slowly clear Monday and turning windy. Temperatures
will struggle to reach the middle 40s. There will be a northwest
flow for most of next week. Temperatures will be below average and
a mostly dry forecast. There will be several dry frontal passages
to reinforce the cooler and dry air mass. Travelers on Wednesday
can expected quiet weather and dry weather around this area.
Thanksgiving looks cool and sunny. Slightly colder and dry weather
continues for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

As has been the case over the last 36 hours, flight categories
will continue to oscillate through Sunday. Weather models
continue to offer a variety of possible scenarios...and have been
performing rather poorly of late. Thus, this forecast was heavily
based on regional observations and radar trends for the next six
hours...and then a model consensus beyond six hours.

We are therefore expecting a brief improvement in flight conditions
to VFR this evening with a return to MVFR or IFR late tonight.
Rain showers will continue early this evening around Branson,
otherwise most of tonight will be dry with the exception of a few
late night showers. We are then expecting an area of rain with a
few embedded thunderstorms Sunday morning. MVFR can be expected
with this activity, with pockets of IFR also possible. Another
round of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will then develop
across western Missouri Sunday afternoon as a cold front
approaches.

Low level wind shear will persist for much of tonight with surface
winds remaining brisk out of the south to southeast. Those winds
will shift to the west and then northwest from late Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening behind that cold front.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KLSX 222338
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
538 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Scattered showers are already moving across the southern half the
CWA this afternoon in an area of modest 925-850mb moisture
convergence ahead of the trough currently over the southern High
Plains.  Expect rain to become more widespread late this afternoon
into the early evening hours over the southern two thirds of the CWA
as the showers currently over southwest Missouri continue to move
northeast into the area.  This is being forced by an area of
stronger low level moisture convergence that the HRRR shows moving
across the area between 22-03Z.   While there will still continue to
be scattered showers elsewhere behind this area through late
evening, it still appears that better chances for more widespread
rain will move in from the west after midnight.  By that time, large
scale ascent and moisture convergence will be increasing ahead of the
aforementioned southern Plains trough that will be ejecting
northeastward ahead of longwave trough.  With clouds and warm air
advection tonight, stayed with lows that were close to going
temperatures and MOS guidance.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Rain and a few thunderstorms are expected on Sunday as a southern
stream, negatively tilted shortwave moves from eastern TX
northeastward into the TN and OH Valley regions, while a northern
stream upper level trough/low moves slowly east southeastward
through the northern Plains.  The models were depicting upper level
divergence over our area between a strong upper level jet streak
across the southern Plains and a weaker upper level jet streak over
the Great Lakes region.  The models have some discrepencies as to
the exact track of the deepening surface low, but at this time it
appears that it will move northeastward through or just north of the
STL area around 00z Monday.  There will be ample instability for at
least isolated thunderstorms on Sunday into Sunday evening,
especially across southeast MO and southwest IL.  Strong low level
cold air advection can be expected Sunday night after the passage of
the low and trailing cold front.  The threat for precipitation will
continue Sunday night as shortwaves rotate through our area south of
the main upper level low/trough over the northern Plains.  As the
colder air filters southeastward into the region the rain may change
over to light snow before ending late Sunday night/early Monday
morning across portions of northeast and central MO as well as west
central IL.  Most of the precipitation will shift east of our
forecast area by Monday, although there may be some lingering light
snow or flurries mainly across west central IL.  Much colder
temperatures can be expected for Monday, with nearly steady
temperatures, mainly in the middle 30s to lower 40s as the NAM and
ECMWF models drop the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward to STL.
The GFS model is even colder and quicker bringing the colder air
southeastward into our forecast area.  An unseasonably cold period
is expected through Tuesday night as a large amplitude positively
tilted upper level trough moves eastward through the central US.
The GFS and ECMWF models are still hinting at the possibility of a
northwest flow shortwave and associated weak surface low to bring a
quick shot of rain/snow to our area late Tuesday night and
Wednesday.  The models, particularly the GFS are not as cold for
Thanksgiving Day with the coldest air remaining just north of our
forecast area, although a strong surface ridge is still forecast to
build southeastward into the region from the northern Plains on
Thanksgiving.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 522 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Conditions may initially bounce between
MVFR and VFR early in the TAF period, but any improvement to VFR should
be temporary based on a broader cig/vis analysis and moisture
forecasts. An approaching low pressure system will bring
widespread rain to KCOU and KUIN on Sunday, and conditions are
expected to fall to IFR. Precipitation should end with the passage
of a cold front beyond the end of the 24-hr TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: An area of rain showers was moving
northeastwards across the St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF
issuance. Ceilings will probably bounce between VFR and MVFR
before falling solidly into MVFR with the arrival of the rain.
Much more widespread rain is expected on Sunday ahead of a low
pressure system, and conditions will likely fall to IFR during
this time. Rain should end on Sunday night with the arrival of a
cold front.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 222329
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
529 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Stratus and patchy light fog will continue this evening and tonight
as warm, moist air continues to flow into the region from the south.
Dense fog still looks possible across northern MO tonight and early
Sunday morning, but should eventually mix out by mid morning as a
shortwave trough approaches and the resultant surface low begins to
deepen over central MO.

The shortwave trough, currently over SW TX, is still progged to lift
into central TX this evening and into southeastern MO by Sunday
afternoon. Precipitation is still expected to focus near the surface
low in central to eastern MO; however, the second system that will
drop southeast out of the northern Plains on Sunday has sped up
slightly, making precipitation along and ahead of its associated
cold front a bit more likely as it pushes southeastward across the
CWA Sunday afternoon and evening. Precipitation type is still
expected to be primarily rain with most precipitation occurring where
surface wet bulb temperatures are around or in excess of +5 C, but a
brief, light rain/snow mix is possible for any precipitation that
trails behind the cold front. No snow accumulation is expected due
to warm ground temperatures and low moisture availability as the
systems sweep off to our east, and any light wrap-around snow on
Monday is expected to stay primarily north of our forecast area.

Temperatures will be chilly Monday and will remain below normal
through at least Thursday, as several additional shortwave troughs
dig into the central CONUS and reinforce northwest flow over the
CWA. Moisture will remain slim as these systems pass through, and
only a brief window of light snow is possible for far northern and
northeastern MO Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Otherwise,
temperatures look like they`ll start to gradually recover beyond the
end of the period as the longwave trough dug out by multiple
shortwave troughs exits to the east and zonal flow sets up over the
central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 516 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MVFR conditions expected through the initial period. Ceilings will
continue to improve through Saturday evening but will fill back in
overnight as moisture steadily surges in from the south. Will see the
development of fog overnight as temperatures decrease with a period
of IFR ceiling heights. Cold front will make its arrival over the
terminals Sunday afternoon. Light rain showers along the boundary with
gusty NW winds will persist through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 222329
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
529 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Stratus and patchy light fog will continue this evening and tonight
as warm, moist air continues to flow into the region from the south.
Dense fog still looks possible across northern MO tonight and early
Sunday morning, but should eventually mix out by mid morning as a
shortwave trough approaches and the resultant surface low begins to
deepen over central MO.

The shortwave trough, currently over SW TX, is still progged to lift
into central TX this evening and into southeastern MO by Sunday
afternoon. Precipitation is still expected to focus near the surface
low in central to eastern MO; however, the second system that will
drop southeast out of the northern Plains on Sunday has sped up
slightly, making precipitation along and ahead of its associated
cold front a bit more likely as it pushes southeastward across the
CWA Sunday afternoon and evening. Precipitation type is still
expected to be primarily rain with most precipitation occurring where
surface wet bulb temperatures are around or in excess of +5 C, but a
brief, light rain/snow mix is possible for any precipitation that
trails behind the cold front. No snow accumulation is expected due
to warm ground temperatures and low moisture availability as the
systems sweep off to our east, and any light wrap-around snow on
Monday is expected to stay primarily north of our forecast area.

Temperatures will be chilly Monday and will remain below normal
through at least Thursday, as several additional shortwave troughs
dig into the central CONUS and reinforce northwest flow over the
CWA. Moisture will remain slim as these systems pass through, and
only a brief window of light snow is possible for far northern and
northeastern MO Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Otherwise,
temperatures look like they`ll start to gradually recover beyond the
end of the period as the longwave trough dug out by multiple
shortwave troughs exits to the east and zonal flow sets up over the
central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 516 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MVFR conditions expected through the initial period. Ceilings will
continue to improve through Saturday evening but will fill back in
overnight as moisture steadily surges in from the south. Will see the
development of fog overnight as temperatures decrease with a period
of IFR ceiling heights. Cold front will make its arrival over the
terminals Sunday afternoon. Light rain showers along the boundary with
gusty NW winds will persist through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KLSX 222147
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Scattered showers are already moving across the southern half the
CWA this afternoon in an area of modest 925-850mb moisture
convergence ahead of the trough currently over the southern High
Plains.  Expect rain to become more widespread late this afternoon
into the early evening hours over the southern two thirds of the CWA
as the showers currently over southwest Missouri continue to move
northeast into the area.  This is being forced by an area of
stronger low level moisture convergence that the HRRR shows moving
across the area between 22-03Z.   While there will still continue to
be scattered showers elsewhere behind this area through late
evening, it still appears that better chances for more widespread
rain will move in from the west after midnight.  By that time, large
scale ascent and moisture convergence will be increasing ahead of the
aforementioned southern Plains trough that will be ejecting
northeastward ahead of longwave trough.  With clouds and warm air
advection tonight, stayed with lows that were close to going
temperatures and MOS guidance.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Rain and a few thunderstorms are expected on Sunday as a southern
stream, negatively tilted shortwave moves from eastern TX
northeastward into the TN and OH Valley regions, while a northern
stream upper level trough/low moves slowly east southeastward
through the northern Plains.  The models were depicting upper level
divergence over our area between a strong upper level jet streak
across the southern Plains and a weaker upper level jet streak over
the Great Lakes region.  The models have some discrepencies as to
the exact track of the deepening surface low, but at this time it
appears that it will move northeastward through or just north of the
STL area around 00z Monday.  There will be ample instability for at
least isolated thunderstorms on Sunday into Sunday evening,
especially across southeast MO and southwest IL.  Strong low level
cold air advection can be expected Sunday night after the passage of
the low and trailing cold front.  The threat for precipitation will
continue Sunday night as shortwaves rotate through our area south of
the main upper level low/trough over the northern Plains.  As the
colder air filters southeastward into the region the rain may change
over to light snow before ending late Sunday night/early Monday
morning across portions of northeast and central MO as well as west
central IL.  Most of the precipitation will shift east of our
forecast area by Monday, although there may be some lingering light
snow or flurries mainly across west central IL.  Much colder
temperatures can be expected for Monday, with nearly steady
temperatures, mainly in the middle 30s to lower 40s as the NAM and
ECMWF models drop the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward to STL.
The GFS model is even colder and quicker bringing the colder air
southeastward into our forecast area.  An unseasonably cold period
is expected through Tuesday night as a large amplitude positively
tilted upper level trough moves eastward through the central US.
The GFS and ECMWF models are still hinting at the possibility of a
northwest flow shortwave and associated weak surface low to bring a
quick shot of rain/snow to our area late Tuesday night and
Wednesday.  The models, particularly the GFS are not as cold for
Thanksgiving Day with the coldest air remaining just north of our
forecast area, although a strong surface ridge is still forecast to
build southeastward into the region from the northern Plains on
Thanksgiving.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Have added tempo groups for showers later this afternoon and early
this evening at the STL metro TAF sites as an area of showers over
southwest Missouri moves northeast. MVFR ceilings are expected
through 10-15Z when a steadier rain is expected to develop. Once
this steady rain moves into the area, IFR conditions are expected
on Sunday at all TAF sites.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect ceilings between 2000-3000ft through
22Z. Then an area of showers will move into the terminal from the
southwest which may cause ceilings to fall below 2000ft into the
early evening hours. Then expect most of the night to be dry with
just scattered showers in the area before lower ceilings and more
widespread showers move into the area after 09Z, with steady rain
and IFR conditions moving into the area by mid morning Sunday.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 222147
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Scattered showers are already moving across the southern half the
CWA this afternoon in an area of modest 925-850mb moisture
convergence ahead of the trough currently over the southern High
Plains.  Expect rain to become more widespread late this afternoon
into the early evening hours over the southern two thirds of the CWA
as the showers currently over southwest Missouri continue to move
northeast into the area.  This is being forced by an area of
stronger low level moisture convergence that the HRRR shows moving
across the area between 22-03Z.   While there will still continue to
be scattered showers elsewhere behind this area through late
evening, it still appears that better chances for more widespread
rain will move in from the west after midnight.  By that time, large
scale ascent and moisture convergence will be increasing ahead of the
aforementioned southern Plains trough that will be ejecting
northeastward ahead of longwave trough.  With clouds and warm air
advection tonight, stayed with lows that were close to going
temperatures and MOS guidance.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Rain and a few thunderstorms are expected on Sunday as a southern
stream, negatively tilted shortwave moves from eastern TX
northeastward into the TN and OH Valley regions, while a northern
stream upper level trough/low moves slowly east southeastward
through the northern Plains.  The models were depicting upper level
divergence over our area between a strong upper level jet streak
across the southern Plains and a weaker upper level jet streak over
the Great Lakes region.  The models have some discrepencies as to
the exact track of the deepening surface low, but at this time it
appears that it will move northeastward through or just north of the
STL area around 00z Monday.  There will be ample instability for at
least isolated thunderstorms on Sunday into Sunday evening,
especially across southeast MO and southwest IL.  Strong low level
cold air advection can be expected Sunday night after the passage of
the low and trailing cold front.  The threat for precipitation will
continue Sunday night as shortwaves rotate through our area south of
the main upper level low/trough over the northern Plains.  As the
colder air filters southeastward into the region the rain may change
over to light snow before ending late Sunday night/early Monday
morning across portions of northeast and central MO as well as west
central IL.  Most of the precipitation will shift east of our
forecast area by Monday, although there may be some lingering light
snow or flurries mainly across west central IL.  Much colder
temperatures can be expected for Monday, with nearly steady
temperatures, mainly in the middle 30s to lower 40s as the NAM and
ECMWF models drop the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward to STL.
The GFS model is even colder and quicker bringing the colder air
southeastward into our forecast area.  An unseasonably cold period
is expected through Tuesday night as a large amplitude positively
tilted upper level trough moves eastward through the central US.
The GFS and ECMWF models are still hinting at the possibility of a
northwest flow shortwave and associated weak surface low to bring a
quick shot of rain/snow to our area late Tuesday night and
Wednesday.  The models, particularly the GFS are not as cold for
Thanksgiving Day with the coldest air remaining just north of our
forecast area, although a strong surface ridge is still forecast to
build southeastward into the region from the northern Plains on
Thanksgiving.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Have added tempo groups for showers later this afternoon and early
this evening at the STL metro TAF sites as an area of showers over
southwest Missouri moves northeast. MVFR ceilings are expected
through 10-15Z when a steadier rain is expected to develop. Once
this steady rain moves into the area, IFR conditions are expected
on Sunday at all TAF sites.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect ceilings between 2000-3000ft through
22Z. Then an area of showers will move into the terminal from the
southwest which may cause ceilings to fall below 2000ft into the
early evening hours. Then expect most of the night to be dry with
just scattered showers in the area before lower ceilings and more
widespread showers move into the area after 09Z, with steady rain
and IFR conditions moving into the area by mid morning Sunday.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 222147
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Scattered showers are already moving across the southern half the
CWA this afternoon in an area of modest 925-850mb moisture
convergence ahead of the trough currently over the southern High
Plains.  Expect rain to become more widespread late this afternoon
into the early evening hours over the southern two thirds of the CWA
as the showers currently over southwest Missouri continue to move
northeast into the area.  This is being forced by an area of
stronger low level moisture convergence that the HRRR shows moving
across the area between 22-03Z.   While there will still continue to
be scattered showers elsewhere behind this area through late
evening, it still appears that better chances for more widespread
rain will move in from the west after midnight.  By that time, large
scale ascent and moisture convergence will be increasing ahead of the
aforementioned southern Plains trough that will be ejecting
northeastward ahead of longwave trough.  With clouds and warm air
advection tonight, stayed with lows that were close to going
temperatures and MOS guidance.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Rain and a few thunderstorms are expected on Sunday as a southern
stream, negatively tilted shortwave moves from eastern TX
northeastward into the TN and OH Valley regions, while a northern
stream upper level trough/low moves slowly east southeastward
through the northern Plains.  The models were depicting upper level
divergence over our area between a strong upper level jet streak
across the southern Plains and a weaker upper level jet streak over
the Great Lakes region.  The models have some discrepencies as to
the exact track of the deepening surface low, but at this time it
appears that it will move northeastward through or just north of the
STL area around 00z Monday.  There will be ample instability for at
least isolated thunderstorms on Sunday into Sunday evening,
especially across southeast MO and southwest IL.  Strong low level
cold air advection can be expected Sunday night after the passage of
the low and trailing cold front.  The threat for precipitation will
continue Sunday night as shortwaves rotate through our area south of
the main upper level low/trough over the northern Plains.  As the
colder air filters southeastward into the region the rain may change
over to light snow before ending late Sunday night/early Monday
morning across portions of northeast and central MO as well as west
central IL.  Most of the precipitation will shift east of our
forecast area by Monday, although there may be some lingering light
snow or flurries mainly across west central IL.  Much colder
temperatures can be expected for Monday, with nearly steady
temperatures, mainly in the middle 30s to lower 40s as the NAM and
ECMWF models drop the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward to STL.
The GFS model is even colder and quicker bringing the colder air
southeastward into our forecast area.  An unseasonably cold period
is expected through Tuesday night as a large amplitude positively
tilted upper level trough moves eastward through the central US.
The GFS and ECMWF models are still hinting at the possibility of a
northwest flow shortwave and associated weak surface low to bring a
quick shot of rain/snow to our area late Tuesday night and
Wednesday.  The models, particularly the GFS are not as cold for
Thanksgiving Day with the coldest air remaining just north of our
forecast area, although a strong surface ridge is still forecast to
build southeastward into the region from the northern Plains on
Thanksgiving.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Have added tempo groups for showers later this afternoon and early
this evening at the STL metro TAF sites as an area of showers over
southwest Missouri moves northeast. MVFR ceilings are expected
through 10-15Z when a steadier rain is expected to develop. Once
this steady rain moves into the area, IFR conditions are expected
on Sunday at all TAF sites.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect ceilings between 2000-3000ft through
22Z. Then an area of showers will move into the terminal from the
southwest which may cause ceilings to fall below 2000ft into the
early evening hours. Then expect most of the night to be dry with
just scattered showers in the area before lower ceilings and more
widespread showers move into the area after 09Z, with steady rain
and IFR conditions moving into the area by mid morning Sunday.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 222147
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Scattered showers are already moving across the southern half the
CWA this afternoon in an area of modest 925-850mb moisture
convergence ahead of the trough currently over the southern High
Plains.  Expect rain to become more widespread late this afternoon
into the early evening hours over the southern two thirds of the CWA
as the showers currently over southwest Missouri continue to move
northeast into the area.  This is being forced by an area of
stronger low level moisture convergence that the HRRR shows moving
across the area between 22-03Z.   While there will still continue to
be scattered showers elsewhere behind this area through late
evening, it still appears that better chances for more widespread
rain will move in from the west after midnight.  By that time, large
scale ascent and moisture convergence will be increasing ahead of the
aforementioned southern Plains trough that will be ejecting
northeastward ahead of longwave trough.  With clouds and warm air
advection tonight, stayed with lows that were close to going
temperatures and MOS guidance.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Rain and a few thunderstorms are expected on Sunday as a southern
stream, negatively tilted shortwave moves from eastern TX
northeastward into the TN and OH Valley regions, while a northern
stream upper level trough/low moves slowly east southeastward
through the northern Plains.  The models were depicting upper level
divergence over our area between a strong upper level jet streak
across the southern Plains and a weaker upper level jet streak over
the Great Lakes region.  The models have some discrepencies as to
the exact track of the deepening surface low, but at this time it
appears that it will move northeastward through or just north of the
STL area around 00z Monday.  There will be ample instability for at
least isolated thunderstorms on Sunday into Sunday evening,
especially across southeast MO and southwest IL.  Strong low level
cold air advection can be expected Sunday night after the passage of
the low and trailing cold front.  The threat for precipitation will
continue Sunday night as shortwaves rotate through our area south of
the main upper level low/trough over the northern Plains.  As the
colder air filters southeastward into the region the rain may change
over to light snow before ending late Sunday night/early Monday
morning across portions of northeast and central MO as well as west
central IL.  Most of the precipitation will shift east of our
forecast area by Monday, although there may be some lingering light
snow or flurries mainly across west central IL.  Much colder
temperatures can be expected for Monday, with nearly steady
temperatures, mainly in the middle 30s to lower 40s as the NAM and
ECMWF models drop the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward to STL.
The GFS model is even colder and quicker bringing the colder air
southeastward into our forecast area.  An unseasonably cold period
is expected through Tuesday night as a large amplitude positively
tilted upper level trough moves eastward through the central US.
The GFS and ECMWF models are still hinting at the possibility of a
northwest flow shortwave and associated weak surface low to bring a
quick shot of rain/snow to our area late Tuesday night and
Wednesday.  The models, particularly the GFS are not as cold for
Thanksgiving Day with the coldest air remaining just north of our
forecast area, although a strong surface ridge is still forecast to
build southeastward into the region from the northern Plains on
Thanksgiving.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Have added tempo groups for showers later this afternoon and early
this evening at the STL metro TAF sites as an area of showers over
southwest Missouri moves northeast. MVFR ceilings are expected
through 10-15Z when a steadier rain is expected to develop. Once
this steady rain moves into the area, IFR conditions are expected
on Sunday at all TAF sites.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect ceilings between 2000-3000ft through
22Z. Then an area of showers will move into the terminal from the
southwest which may cause ceilings to fall below 2000ft into the
early evening hours. Then expect most of the night to be dry with
just scattered showers in the area before lower ceilings and more
widespread showers move into the area after 09Z, with steady rain
and IFR conditions moving into the area by mid morning Sunday.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 222054
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
254 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Stratus and patchy light fog will continue this evening and tonight
as warm, moist air continues to flow into the region from the south.
Dense fog still looks possible across northern MO tonight and early
Sunday morning, but should eventually mix out by mid morning as a
shortwave trough approaches and the resultant surface low begins to
deepen over central MO.

The shortwave trough, currently over SW TX, is still progged to lift
into central TX this evening and into southeastern MO by Sunday
afternoon. Precipitation is still expected to focus near the surface
low in central to eastern MO; however, the second system that will
drop southeast out of the northern Plains on Sunday has sped up
slightly, making precipitation along and ahead of its associated
cold front a bit more likely as it pushes southeastward across the
CWA Sunday afternoon and evening. Precipitation type is still
expected to be primarily rain with most precipitation occurring where
surface wet bulb temperatures are around or in excess of +5 C, but a
brief, light rain/snow mix is possible for any precipitation that
trails behind the cold front. No snow accumulation is expected due
to warm ground temperatures and low moisture availability as the
systems sweep off to our east, and any light wrap-around snow on
Monday is expected to stay primarily north of our forecast area.

Temperatures will be chilly Monday and will remain below normal
through at least Thursday, as several additional shortwave troughs
dig into the central CONUS and reinforce northwest flow over the
CWA. Moisture will remain slim as these systems pass through, and
only a brief window of light snow is possible for far northern and
northeastern MO Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Otherwise,
temperatures look like they`ll start to gradually recover beyond the
end of the period as the longwave trough dug out by multiple
shortwave troughs exits to the east and zonal flow sets up over the
central CONUS.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

IFR to very low-end MVFR stratus will continue to park over the
region through the length of the TAF period, generally with ceilings
between 500-1000 ft this afternoon and between 300-700 ft overnight.
Fog will remain light or dissipate at most sites this afternoon, but
may redevelop tonight, especially across northern MO (including KSTJ)
after 03z. Winds will remain out of the south southwest at 12 to 18
kts this afternoon, then should decrease to around 5 to 8 kts during
the night. Little to no improvement in ceilings is expected Sunday
until beyond the end of the TAF period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KEAX 222054
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
254 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Stratus and patchy light fog will continue this evening and tonight
as warm, moist air continues to flow into the region from the south.
Dense fog still looks possible across northern MO tonight and early
Sunday morning, but should eventually mix out by mid morning as a
shortwave trough approaches and the resultant surface low begins to
deepen over central MO.

The shortwave trough, currently over SW TX, is still progged to lift
into central TX this evening and into southeastern MO by Sunday
afternoon. Precipitation is still expected to focus near the surface
low in central to eastern MO; however, the second system that will
drop southeast out of the northern Plains on Sunday has sped up
slightly, making precipitation along and ahead of its associated
cold front a bit more likely as it pushes southeastward across the
CWA Sunday afternoon and evening. Precipitation type is still
expected to be primarily rain with most precipitation occurring where
surface wet bulb temperatures are around or in excess of +5 C, but a
brief, light rain/snow mix is possible for any precipitation that
trails behind the cold front. No snow accumulation is expected due
to warm ground temperatures and low moisture availability as the
systems sweep off to our east, and any light wrap-around snow on
Monday is expected to stay primarily north of our forecast area.

Temperatures will be chilly Monday and will remain below normal
through at least Thursday, as several additional shortwave troughs
dig into the central CONUS and reinforce northwest flow over the
CWA. Moisture will remain slim as these systems pass through, and
only a brief window of light snow is possible for far northern and
northeastern MO Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Otherwise,
temperatures look like they`ll start to gradually recover beyond the
end of the period as the longwave trough dug out by multiple
shortwave troughs exits to the east and zonal flow sets up over the
central CONUS.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

IFR to very low-end MVFR stratus will continue to park over the
region through the length of the TAF period, generally with ceilings
between 500-1000 ft this afternoon and between 300-700 ft overnight.
Fog will remain light or dissipate at most sites this afternoon, but
may redevelop tonight, especially across northern MO (including KSTJ)
after 03z. Winds will remain out of the south southwest at 12 to 18
kts this afternoon, then should decrease to around 5 to 8 kts during
the night. Little to no improvement in ceilings is expected Sunday
until beyond the end of the TAF period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KSGF 222015
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
215 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

...Soggy Weather This Evening and Sunday...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

An upper level storm system was currently over the Big Bend of
Texas and slowly moving northeastward. This system is picking up
moisture from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. One shield of
rain and even isolated thunder will continue to move from Oklahoma
and northern Arkansas into southern Missouri through the evening
hours.

Another shield of rain with isolated thunder will develop late
tonight into Sunday morning and spread across the area. No severe
weather expected but light to occasional moderate downpours can
be expected through Sunday. There are no changes in the forecast
through Sunday. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the 50s
tonight and highs in the lower 60s tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A cold front will move through the area Sunday night along with
another upper level disturbance. This will bring the last round of
showers Sunday night. Model soundings indicate there may be just
enough cold air aloft and the mid levels late Sunday night for
some of the showers to mix with some wet snow before ending. This
will be mainly north of I-44 and temperatures will be in the
middle to upper 30s. If this does occur...there will be no accumulations.

Skies will slowly clear Monday and turning windy. Temperatures
will struggle to reach the middle 40s. There will be a northwest
flow for most of next week. Temperatures will be below average and
a mostly dry forecast. There will be several dry frontal passages
to reinforce the cooler and dry air mass. Travelers on Wednesday
can expected quiet weather and dry weather around this area.
Thanksgiving looks cool and sunny. Slightly colder and dry weather
continues for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Busy forecast over the next 24 hours and beyond. Another wave of
showers and a few embedded storms is entering the region from the
southwest. This will mainly affect SGF/BBG aerodromes, though a
shower or two at JLN remains possible. Ceilings have bounced
around quite a bit over the past 12 or so hours and this should
continue into this evening. Lowest ceilings (mainly low end MVFR)
should be observed with any rainfall. Higher ceilings (low end
VFR) should occur outside of any rain into early this evening.
Trends continue to suggest that a lowering of ceilings is likely
heading into tonight and certainly on Sunday as widespread
rainfall engulfs the area. A heavier brand of rain is expected
during this time, as a result MVFR visibility and a drop to IFR
ceilings is probable for overnight tonight into Sunday. Gusty
southeast winds will give way to low level wind shear once again
tonight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 222015
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
215 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

...Soggy Weather This Evening and Sunday...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

An upper level storm system was currently over the Big Bend of
Texas and slowly moving northeastward. This system is picking up
moisture from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. One shield of
rain and even isolated thunder will continue to move from Oklahoma
and northern Arkansas into southern Missouri through the evening
hours.

Another shield of rain with isolated thunder will develop late
tonight into Sunday morning and spread across the area. No severe
weather expected but light to occasional moderate downpours can
be expected through Sunday. There are no changes in the forecast
through Sunday. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the 50s
tonight and highs in the lower 60s tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A cold front will move through the area Sunday night along with
another upper level disturbance. This will bring the last round of
showers Sunday night. Model soundings indicate there may be just
enough cold air aloft and the mid levels late Sunday night for
some of the showers to mix with some wet snow before ending. This
will be mainly north of I-44 and temperatures will be in the
middle to upper 30s. If this does occur...there will be no accumulations.

Skies will slowly clear Monday and turning windy. Temperatures
will struggle to reach the middle 40s. There will be a northwest
flow for most of next week. Temperatures will be below average and
a mostly dry forecast. There will be several dry frontal passages
to reinforce the cooler and dry air mass. Travelers on Wednesday
can expected quiet weather and dry weather around this area.
Thanksgiving looks cool and sunny. Slightly colder and dry weather
continues for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Busy forecast over the next 24 hours and beyond. Another wave of
showers and a few embedded storms is entering the region from the
southwest. This will mainly affect SGF/BBG aerodromes, though a
shower or two at JLN remains possible. Ceilings have bounced
around quite a bit over the past 12 or so hours and this should
continue into this evening. Lowest ceilings (mainly low end MVFR)
should be observed with any rainfall. Higher ceilings (low end
VFR) should occur outside of any rain into early this evening.
Trends continue to suggest that a lowering of ceilings is likely
heading into tonight and certainly on Sunday as widespread
rainfall engulfs the area. A heavier brand of rain is expected
during this time, as a result MVFR visibility and a drop to IFR
ceilings is probable for overnight tonight into Sunday. Gusty
southeast winds will give way to low level wind shear once again
tonight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 222015
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
215 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

...Soggy Weather This Evening and Sunday...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

An upper level storm system was currently over the Big Bend of
Texas and slowly moving northeastward. This system is picking up
moisture from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. One shield of
rain and even isolated thunder will continue to move from Oklahoma
and northern Arkansas into southern Missouri through the evening
hours.

Another shield of rain with isolated thunder will develop late
tonight into Sunday morning and spread across the area. No severe
weather expected but light to occasional moderate downpours can
be expected through Sunday. There are no changes in the forecast
through Sunday. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the 50s
tonight and highs in the lower 60s tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A cold front will move through the area Sunday night along with
another upper level disturbance. This will bring the last round of
showers Sunday night. Model soundings indicate there may be just
enough cold air aloft and the mid levels late Sunday night for
some of the showers to mix with some wet snow before ending. This
will be mainly north of I-44 and temperatures will be in the
middle to upper 30s. If this does occur...there will be no accumulations.

Skies will slowly clear Monday and turning windy. Temperatures
will struggle to reach the middle 40s. There will be a northwest
flow for most of next week. Temperatures will be below average and
a mostly dry forecast. There will be several dry frontal passages
to reinforce the cooler and dry air mass. Travelers on Wednesday
can expected quiet weather and dry weather around this area.
Thanksgiving looks cool and sunny. Slightly colder and dry weather
continues for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Busy forecast over the next 24 hours and beyond. Another wave of
showers and a few embedded storms is entering the region from the
southwest. This will mainly affect SGF/BBG aerodromes, though a
shower or two at JLN remains possible. Ceilings have bounced
around quite a bit over the past 12 or so hours and this should
continue into this evening. Lowest ceilings (mainly low end MVFR)
should be observed with any rainfall. Higher ceilings (low end
VFR) should occur outside of any rain into early this evening.
Trends continue to suggest that a lowering of ceilings is likely
heading into tonight and certainly on Sunday as widespread
rainfall engulfs the area. A heavier brand of rain is expected
during this time, as a result MVFR visibility and a drop to IFR
ceilings is probable for overnight tonight into Sunday. Gusty
southeast winds will give way to low level wind shear once again
tonight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 222015
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
215 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

...Soggy Weather This Evening and Sunday...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

An upper level storm system was currently over the Big Bend of
Texas and slowly moving northeastward. This system is picking up
moisture from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. One shield of
rain and even isolated thunder will continue to move from Oklahoma
and northern Arkansas into southern Missouri through the evening
hours.

Another shield of rain with isolated thunder will develop late
tonight into Sunday morning and spread across the area. No severe
weather expected but light to occasional moderate downpours can
be expected through Sunday. There are no changes in the forecast
through Sunday. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the 50s
tonight and highs in the lower 60s tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A cold front will move through the area Sunday night along with
another upper level disturbance. This will bring the last round of
showers Sunday night. Model soundings indicate there may be just
enough cold air aloft and the mid levels late Sunday night for
some of the showers to mix with some wet snow before ending. This
will be mainly north of I-44 and temperatures will be in the
middle to upper 30s. If this does occur...there will be no accumulations.

Skies will slowly clear Monday and turning windy. Temperatures
will struggle to reach the middle 40s. There will be a northwest
flow for most of next week. Temperatures will be below average and
a mostly dry forecast. There will be several dry frontal passages
to reinforce the cooler and dry air mass. Travelers on Wednesday
can expected quiet weather and dry weather around this area.
Thanksgiving looks cool and sunny. Slightly colder and dry weather
continues for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Busy forecast over the next 24 hours and beyond. Another wave of
showers and a few embedded storms is entering the region from the
southwest. This will mainly affect SGF/BBG aerodromes, though a
shower or two at JLN remains possible. Ceilings have bounced
around quite a bit over the past 12 or so hours and this should
continue into this evening. Lowest ceilings (mainly low end MVFR)
should be observed with any rainfall. Higher ceilings (low end
VFR) should occur outside of any rain into early this evening.
Trends continue to suggest that a lowering of ceilings is likely
heading into tonight and certainly on Sunday as widespread
rainfall engulfs the area. A heavier brand of rain is expected
during this time, as a result MVFR visibility and a drop to IFR
ceilings is probable for overnight tonight into Sunday. Gusty
southeast winds will give way to low level wind shear once again
tonight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KLSX 221835
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1235 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1234 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Have updated forecast to include area of showers and isolated
thunderstorms that have moved into southeast Missouri as well as
far southwest Illinois. HRRR is also showing that area of showers
over far southwest Missouri will move into east central Missouri
and adjacent parts of Illinois late this afternoon and early this
evening. Increased chances to likely in both these locations.
Temperatures have already climbed into upper 50s and lower 60s in
most areas, so have increased high temperatures accordingly.

Britt

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Main area of precipitation has moved out of region, though there is
some widely scattered activity as well as drizzle over northern
portions of forecast area early this morning. Next shortwave to
slide northeast through forecast area today, but precipitation will
continue to be scattered in nature. Some elevated instability over
southern portions of region this afternoon, so still could see
isolated thunder in this area. Otherwise, just scattered showers
under cloudy skies. Temperatures to be near normal or just above
normal in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

(Tonight-Monday)

Overall forecast trends still looking pretty good, and main
changes will be an attempt to fine-tune these trends.

This afternoon`s expected scattered coverage will likely linger into
this evening, but precipitation threat should ramp up considerably
late tonight and into Sunday as dynamics from strong upper system
working northeast from the southern plains and increasing moisture
begin to come into phase over the region.  Like the trends suggested
by 00z model QPFs that by Sunday morning main focus of rain will
stretch from southwest into northeast Missouri, with this band of
rain then expanding and working east during the day.  With the above
trends in mind, I`ve also attempted to minimize PoPs in our far e
counties until Sunday afternoon, as moisture and lift will be
somewhat limited in this part of the FA until then.  Although
instability is progged by all models to remain quite limited due to
saturated AMS I`ve continued a mention of thunder over the Ozarks
tonight and into the southeast half of the CWA on Sunday.

All of the 00z output is continuing to suggest that as dynamics with
the first system pushes into the Ohio Valley on Sunday evening, a
secondary area of precip should develop in its wake as another
shortwave drops into the base of the longwave trof.  Ptypes could
become an issue by late Sunday night on the back edge of this round
of precip as southward surge of cold air will be causing the
freezing levels to drop; however at this time not expecting any
major issues as forecast soundings suggest ams will get cold enough
to support snow just as the precip begins to wind down. Threat of
measurable precip with this secondary shortwave should come to an
end on Monday morning, although we do anticipate that some flurries
will linger into the afternoon over northern sections of the CWA
where cold advection and cyclonic low level flow will be the
strongest.

Today`s moderation in temps will persist into Sunday, but return
of cold air will mean more below average temperatures for the
start of the new week.

(Tuesday-Friday)

Surface ridge is expected to work across the region on Tuesday,
giving the FA chilly but dry late November weather. It still
appears that another fast moving shortwave digging into
progressive longwave trof will produce a quick shot of lift across
the region by Wednesday, but strongest dynamics will be north of
our area and moisture will be quite limited, so going slight
chance/low chance PoPs still look good at midweek.

Medium range solutions still leaving questions regarding sensible
weather trends heading into the Thanksgiving holiday.  GFS is now
supported by the GEM in suggesting much less deepening of the
longwave trof over the eastern CONUS.  This keeps baroclinicity
further north and allows the next fast moving shortwave to interact
with this thermal gradient, which would suggest a threat of some
light precip on Thanksgiving over northern sections of the CWA.
ECMWF is still deeper with the trof to our east, but its interesting
that its not as deep as was suggested in yesterday`s guidance, and
in fact has trended a bit more towards a flatter mid level flow.
For now will maintain dry forecast, but this trend will be
interesting to watch over the next few forecast cycles.

With the reintensification of the trof over the eastern CONUS temps
will remain well below normal during the latter half of the
upcoming work week, although exact extent of the cold will
obviously depend on the intensity of the trof. Highs primarily in
the 30s heading into Thursday and Friday look like a good starting
point for now.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Have added tempo groups for showers later this afternoon and early
this evening at the STL metro TAF sites as an area of showers over
southwest Missouri moves northeast. MVFR ceilings are expected
through 10-15Z when a steadier rain is expected to develop. Once
this steady rain moves into the area, IFR conditions are expected
on Sunday at all TAF sites.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect ceilings between 2000-3000ft through
22Z. Then an area of showers will move into the terminal from the
southwest which may cause ceilings to fall below 2000ft into the
early evening hours. Then expect most of the night to be dry with
just scattered showers in the area before lower ceilings and more
widespread showers move into the area after 09Z, with steady rain
and IFR conditions moving into the area by mid morning Sunday.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 221747 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1147 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Waves of light rain, with occasional embedded thunderstorms
continue to enter from the south ahead of a shortwave moving out
of Oklahoma. This activity tended to weaken a bit as it moved
into the area this morning. Should see a better coverage of light
rain this afternoon, mainly along and southeast of the I-44
corridor, as the area will briefly reside beneath the right
entrance region of an upper level jet.

The potential exists for another break in the activity this
evening before another round of rain moves in tonight. Will be
assessing the latest mesoscale and short term models runs in the
coming hour or two and adjusting expectations accordingly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Gulf moisture continues to stream into the Ozarks region this
morning in advance of an approaching disturbance. This disturbance
will force widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms today
into Sunday.

While no severe storms are expected, sufficient elevated cape will
facilitate some thunderstorms, which is evident this morning over
south central Oklahoma.

Specific for today, this rainfall will be somewhat scattered in
nature, with the best areal coverage southeast of Interstate 44.
Rain will become more widespread after midnight tonight and into
Sunday, covering the entire region.

By Monday morning, all rain will exit the Ozarks, leaving behind
rainfall amounts ranging from 0.50 to 1.75 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

Deep northwest flow will become established over much of the lower
48 through the upcoming work week. This pattern will shut down the
Gulf of Mexico, bringing an extended period of dry weather.

As a matter of fact, we are not forecasting any precipitation all
next week. Temperatures in the 40s are expected on an afternoon
basis through Thursday. Another shot of Canadian air will then
surge through southern Missouri by Friday, bringing colder
temperatures.

As of now it looks as though Thursday night`s frontal passage will
be dry due to the lack of available moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Busy forecast over the next 24 hours and beyond. Another wave of
showers and a few embedded storms is entering the region from the
southwest. This will mainly affect SGF/BBG aerodromes, though a
shower or two at JLN remains possible. Ceilings have bounced
around quite a bit over the past 12 or so hours and this should
continue into this evening. Lowest ceilings (mainly low end MVFR)
should be observed with any rainfall. Higher ceilings (low end
VFR) should occur outside of any rain into early this evening.
Trends continue to suggest that a lowering of ceilings is likely
heading into tonight and certainly on Sunday as widespread
rainfall engulfs the area. A heavier brand of rain is expected
during this time, as a result MVFR visibility and a drop to IFR
ceilings is probable for overnight tonight into Sunday. Gusty
southeast winds will give way to low level wind shear once again
tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 221747 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1147 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Waves of light rain, with occasional embedded thunderstorms
continue to enter from the south ahead of a shortwave moving out
of Oklahoma. This activity tended to weaken a bit as it moved
into the area this morning. Should see a better coverage of light
rain this afternoon, mainly along and southeast of the I-44
corridor, as the area will briefly reside beneath the right
entrance region of an upper level jet.

The potential exists for another break in the activity this
evening before another round of rain moves in tonight. Will be
assessing the latest mesoscale and short term models runs in the
coming hour or two and adjusting expectations accordingly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Gulf moisture continues to stream into the Ozarks region this
morning in advance of an approaching disturbance. This disturbance
will force widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms today
into Sunday.

While no severe storms are expected, sufficient elevated cape will
facilitate some thunderstorms, which is evident this morning over
south central Oklahoma.

Specific for today, this rainfall will be somewhat scattered in
nature, with the best areal coverage southeast of Interstate 44.
Rain will become more widespread after midnight tonight and into
Sunday, covering the entire region.

By Monday morning, all rain will exit the Ozarks, leaving behind
rainfall amounts ranging from 0.50 to 1.75 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

Deep northwest flow will become established over much of the lower
48 through the upcoming work week. This pattern will shut down the
Gulf of Mexico, bringing an extended period of dry weather.

As a matter of fact, we are not forecasting any precipitation all
next week. Temperatures in the 40s are expected on an afternoon
basis through Thursday. Another shot of Canadian air will then
surge through southern Missouri by Friday, bringing colder
temperatures.

As of now it looks as though Thursday night`s frontal passage will
be dry due to the lack of available moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Busy forecast over the next 24 hours and beyond. Another wave of
showers and a few embedded storms is entering the region from the
southwest. This will mainly affect SGF/BBG aerodromes, though a
shower or two at JLN remains possible. Ceilings have bounced
around quite a bit over the past 12 or so hours and this should
continue into this evening. Lowest ceilings (mainly low end MVFR)
should be observed with any rainfall. Higher ceilings (low end
VFR) should occur outside of any rain into early this evening.
Trends continue to suggest that a lowering of ceilings is likely
heading into tonight and certainly on Sunday as widespread
rainfall engulfs the area. A heavier brand of rain is expected
during this time, as a result MVFR visibility and a drop to IFR
ceilings is probable for overnight tonight into Sunday. Gusty
southeast winds will give way to low level wind shear once again
tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 221747 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1147 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Waves of light rain, with occasional embedded thunderstorms
continue to enter from the south ahead of a shortwave moving out
of Oklahoma. This activity tended to weaken a bit as it moved
into the area this morning. Should see a better coverage of light
rain this afternoon, mainly along and southeast of the I-44
corridor, as the area will briefly reside beneath the right
entrance region of an upper level jet.

The potential exists for another break in the activity this
evening before another round of rain moves in tonight. Will be
assessing the latest mesoscale and short term models runs in the
coming hour or two and adjusting expectations accordingly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Gulf moisture continues to stream into the Ozarks region this
morning in advance of an approaching disturbance. This disturbance
will force widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms today
into Sunday.

While no severe storms are expected, sufficient elevated cape will
facilitate some thunderstorms, which is evident this morning over
south central Oklahoma.

Specific for today, this rainfall will be somewhat scattered in
nature, with the best areal coverage southeast of Interstate 44.
Rain will become more widespread after midnight tonight and into
Sunday, covering the entire region.

By Monday morning, all rain will exit the Ozarks, leaving behind
rainfall amounts ranging from 0.50 to 1.75 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

Deep northwest flow will become established over much of the lower
48 through the upcoming work week. This pattern will shut down the
Gulf of Mexico, bringing an extended period of dry weather.

As a matter of fact, we are not forecasting any precipitation all
next week. Temperatures in the 40s are expected on an afternoon
basis through Thursday. Another shot of Canadian air will then
surge through southern Missouri by Friday, bringing colder
temperatures.

As of now it looks as though Thursday night`s frontal passage will
be dry due to the lack of available moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Busy forecast over the next 24 hours and beyond. Another wave of
showers and a few embedded storms is entering the region from the
southwest. This will mainly affect SGF/BBG aerodromes, though a
shower or two at JLN remains possible. Ceilings have bounced
around quite a bit over the past 12 or so hours and this should
continue into this evening. Lowest ceilings (mainly low end MVFR)
should be observed with any rainfall. Higher ceilings (low end
VFR) should occur outside of any rain into early this evening.
Trends continue to suggest that a lowering of ceilings is likely
heading into tonight and certainly on Sunday as widespread
rainfall engulfs the area. A heavier brand of rain is expected
during this time, as a result MVFR visibility and a drop to IFR
ceilings is probable for overnight tonight into Sunday. Gusty
southeast winds will give way to low level wind shear once again
tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 221747 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1147 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Waves of light rain, with occasional embedded thunderstorms
continue to enter from the south ahead of a shortwave moving out
of Oklahoma. This activity tended to weaken a bit as it moved
into the area this morning. Should see a better coverage of light
rain this afternoon, mainly along and southeast of the I-44
corridor, as the area will briefly reside beneath the right
entrance region of an upper level jet.

The potential exists for another break in the activity this
evening before another round of rain moves in tonight. Will be
assessing the latest mesoscale and short term models runs in the
coming hour or two and adjusting expectations accordingly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Gulf moisture continues to stream into the Ozarks region this
morning in advance of an approaching disturbance. This disturbance
will force widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms today
into Sunday.

While no severe storms are expected, sufficient elevated cape will
facilitate some thunderstorms, which is evident this morning over
south central Oklahoma.

Specific for today, this rainfall will be somewhat scattered in
nature, with the best areal coverage southeast of Interstate 44.
Rain will become more widespread after midnight tonight and into
Sunday, covering the entire region.

By Monday morning, all rain will exit the Ozarks, leaving behind
rainfall amounts ranging from 0.50 to 1.75 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

Deep northwest flow will become established over much of the lower
48 through the upcoming work week. This pattern will shut down the
Gulf of Mexico, bringing an extended period of dry weather.

As a matter of fact, we are not forecasting any precipitation all
next week. Temperatures in the 40s are expected on an afternoon
basis through Thursday. Another shot of Canadian air will then
surge through southern Missouri by Friday, bringing colder
temperatures.

As of now it looks as though Thursday night`s frontal passage will
be dry due to the lack of available moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Busy forecast over the next 24 hours and beyond. Another wave of
showers and a few embedded storms is entering the region from the
southwest. This will mainly affect SGF/BBG aerodromes, though a
shower or two at JLN remains possible. Ceilings have bounced
around quite a bit over the past 12 or so hours and this should
continue into this evening. Lowest ceilings (mainly low end MVFR)
should be observed with any rainfall. Higher ceilings (low end
VFR) should occur outside of any rain into early this evening.
Trends continue to suggest that a lowering of ceilings is likely
heading into tonight and certainly on Sunday as widespread
rainfall engulfs the area. A heavier brand of rain is expected
during this time, as a result MVFR visibility and a drop to IFR
ceilings is probable for overnight tonight into Sunday. Gusty
southeast winds will give way to low level wind shear once again
tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KEAX 221728
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1128 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning shows us a rather flat progressive
pattern in place across the Nation with a notable shortwave trough
transiting east across northern Mexico on its way into southern
Texas. This helped keep a nice moisture plume advecting across
eastern Kansas and Missouri yesterday, hence the cloudy drizzly
conditions Friday. This activity; i.e. low clouds and drizzle,
should persist through the day today as the shortwave moves into the
Southern Plains before tracking to the northeast later in the
weekend. This should keep light rain and/or drizzle going across
much of the forecast area for today, though temperatures shouldn`t
be too bad as southerly winds should lift everyone`s highs into at
least the 50s --with "around 60" possible south of the Missouri
River--. Far northwest Missouri and a bit of adjacent northeast
Kansas might not have the rain or drizzle, but clouds should be a
ubiquitous factor for everyone today. Did add in isolated thunder
fro areas or west central Missouri into central Missouri based on
some limited instability noted aloft that may result in a few
rumbles of thunder, especially with any of the afternoon activity.
Have kept the highest POPs focused on Saturday night through Sunday
across the eastern half of our forecast area as wind trajectories
look to carry the focus for lift and moisture transport across
southern Missouri into eastern Missouri. Otherwise, have kept
categorical POPs in through the daylight hours of Sunday, but
quickly start moving the precipitation out Sunday night as dry cold
air will begin sweeping in behind the cold front that will move
across Kansas and Missouri during the later half Sunday. However,
have continued to be stingy with the mixed or frozen precipitation
potential on the back side of this exiting system as the cold air
looks to move slowly enough to allow precipitation to end before
temperatures fall enough to freeze anything.

The work week...Cold air will be busy sweeping back into the region
Monday into Tuesday as an energetic Pacific shortwave trough digs
in across the center of the Nation, carving out a large trough which
will allow some cold Canadian air to filter south early in the work
week. This will push prevailing condition back below normal for the
work week. A reinforcing cold front will help push temperatures down
even more Wednesday into Thursday as a quick clipper like system zips
through the northwest flow. This might result in a potential for some
light precipitation Wednesday. Have kept some silent slight chance
POPs going for parts of the forecast area Tuesday night into
Wednesday for this, but confidence is low due to typical timing
issues with the northwest flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

IFR to very low-end MVFR stratus will continue to park over the
region through the length of the TAF period, generally with ceilings
between 500-1000 ft this afternoon and between 300-700 ft overnight.
Fog will remain light or dissipate at most sites this afternoon, but
may redevelop tonight, especially across northern MO (including KSTJ)
after 03z. Winds will remain out of the south southwest at 12 to 18
kts this afternoon, then should decrease to around 5 to 8 kts during
the night. Little to no improvement in ceilings is expected Sunday
until beyond the end of the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KEAX 221728
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1128 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning shows us a rather flat progressive
pattern in place across the Nation with a notable shortwave trough
transiting east across northern Mexico on its way into southern
Texas. This helped keep a nice moisture plume advecting across
eastern Kansas and Missouri yesterday, hence the cloudy drizzly
conditions Friday. This activity; i.e. low clouds and drizzle,
should persist through the day today as the shortwave moves into the
Southern Plains before tracking to the northeast later in the
weekend. This should keep light rain and/or drizzle going across
much of the forecast area for today, though temperatures shouldn`t
be too bad as southerly winds should lift everyone`s highs into at
least the 50s --with "around 60" possible south of the Missouri
River--. Far northwest Missouri and a bit of adjacent northeast
Kansas might not have the rain or drizzle, but clouds should be a
ubiquitous factor for everyone today. Did add in isolated thunder
fro areas or west central Missouri into central Missouri based on
some limited instability noted aloft that may result in a few
rumbles of thunder, especially with any of the afternoon activity.
Have kept the highest POPs focused on Saturday night through Sunday
across the eastern half of our forecast area as wind trajectories
look to carry the focus for lift and moisture transport across
southern Missouri into eastern Missouri. Otherwise, have kept
categorical POPs in through the daylight hours of Sunday, but
quickly start moving the precipitation out Sunday night as dry cold
air will begin sweeping in behind the cold front that will move
across Kansas and Missouri during the later half Sunday. However,
have continued to be stingy with the mixed or frozen precipitation
potential on the back side of this exiting system as the cold air
looks to move slowly enough to allow precipitation to end before
temperatures fall enough to freeze anything.

The work week...Cold air will be busy sweeping back into the region
Monday into Tuesday as an energetic Pacific shortwave trough digs
in across the center of the Nation, carving out a large trough which
will allow some cold Canadian air to filter south early in the work
week. This will push prevailing condition back below normal for the
work week. A reinforcing cold front will help push temperatures down
even more Wednesday into Thursday as a quick clipper like system zips
through the northwest flow. This might result in a potential for some
light precipitation Wednesday. Have kept some silent slight chance
POPs going for parts of the forecast area Tuesday night into
Wednesday for this, but confidence is low due to typical timing
issues with the northwest flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

IFR to very low-end MVFR stratus will continue to park over the
region through the length of the TAF period, generally with ceilings
between 500-1000 ft this afternoon and between 300-700 ft overnight.
Fog will remain light or dissipate at most sites this afternoon, but
may redevelop tonight, especially across northern MO (including KSTJ)
after 03z. Winds will remain out of the south southwest at 12 to 18
kts this afternoon, then should decrease to around 5 to 8 kts during
the night. Little to no improvement in ceilings is expected Sunday
until beyond the end of the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KLSX 221208
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
608 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Main area of precipitation has moved out of region, though there is
some widely scattered activity as well as drizzle over northern
portions of forecast area early this morning. Next shortwave to
slide northeast through forecast area today, but precipitation will
continue to be scattered in nature. Some elevated instability over
southern portions of region this afternoon, so still could see
isolated thunder in this area. Otherwise, just scattered showers
under cloudy skies. Temperatures to be near normal or just above
normal in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

(Tonight-Monday)

Overall foreast trends still looking pretty good, and main changes
will be an attempt to fine-tune these trends.

This afternoon`s expected scattered coverage will likely linger into
this evening, but precipitation threat should ramp up considerably
late tonight and into Sunday as dynamics from strong upper system
working northeast from the southern plains and increasing moisture
begin to come into phase over the region.  Like the trends suggested
by 00z model QPFs that by Sunday morning main focus of rain will
stretch from southwest into northeast Missouri, with this band of
rain then expanding and working east during the day.  With the above
trends in mind, I`ve also attempted to minimize PoPs in our far e
counties until Sunday afternoon, as moisture and lift will be
somewhat limited in this part of the FA until then.  Although
instability is progged by all models to remain quite limited due to
saturated AMS I`ve continued a mention of thunder over the Ozarks
tonight and into the southeast half of the CWA on Sunday.

All of the 00z output is continuing to suggest that as dynamics with
the first system pushes into the Ohio Valley on Sunday evening, a
secondary area of precip should develop in its wake as another
shortwave drops into the base of the longwave trof.  Ptypes could
become an issue by late Sunday night on the back edge of this round
of precip as southward surge of cold air will be causing the
freezing levels to drop; however at this time not expecting any
major issues as forecast soundings suggest ams will get cold enough
to support snow just as the precip begins to wind down. Threat of
measurable precip with this secondary shortwave should come to an
end on Monday morning, although we do anticipate that some flurries
will linger into the afternoon over northern sections of the CWA
where cold advection and cyclonic low level flow will be the
strongest.

Today`s moderation in temps will persist into Sunday, but return
of cold air will mean more below average temperatures for the
start of the new week.

(Tuesday-Friday)

Surface ridge is expected to work across the region on Tuesday,
giving the FA chilly but dry late November weather. It still
appears that another fast moving shortwave digging into
progressive longwave trof will produce a quick shot of lift across
the region by Wednesday, but strongest dynamics will be north of
our area and moisture will be quite limited, so going slight
chance/low chance PoPs still look good at midweek.

Medium range solutions still leaving questions regarding sensible
weather trends heading into the Thanksgiving holiday.  GFS is now
supported by the GEM in suggesting much less deepening of the
longwave trof over the eastern CONUS.  This keeps baroclinicity
further north and allows the next fast moving shortwave to interact
with this thermal gradient, which would suggest a threat of some
light precip on Thanksgiving over northern sections of the CWA.
ECMWF is still deeper with the trof to our east, but its interesting
that its not as deep as was suggested in yesterday`s guidance, and
in fact has trended a bit more towards a flatter mid level flow.
For now will maintain dry forecast, but this trend will be
interesting to watch over the next few forecast cycles.

With the reintensification of the trof over the eastern CONUS temps
will remain well below normal during the latter half of the
upcoming work week, although exact extent of the cold will
obviously depend on the intensity of the trof. Highs primarily in
the 30s heading into Thursday and Friday look like a good starting
point for now.

Truett
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 608 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Initial wave of rain has moved out of region but still have widely
scattered showers. However, coverage is spotty so kept tafs dry
through today and early this evening. Otherwise, clouds to remain
over region. Cigs have lifted to VFR for sites along I-70 corridor
while KUIN remains MVFR. Better chances of rain to move in after
06z Sunday with cigs lowering back down to mvfr. As for winds, LLWS to
persist through 14z Saturday before mixing out. Winds then will
persist from the south through the forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL:
Initial wave of rain has moved out of region but still have widely
scattered showers. However, coverage is spotty so kept taf dry
through today and early this evening. Otherwise, clouds to remain
over region. Cigs have lifted to VFR for metro area. Better chances
of rain to move in after 09z Sunday with cigs lowering back down
to mvfr. As for winds, LLWS to persist through 14z Saturday before
mixing out. Winds then will persist from the south through the
forecast period.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 221208
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
608 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Main area of precipitation has moved out of region, though there is
some widely scattered activity as well as drizzle over northern
portions of forecast area early this morning. Next shortwave to
slide northeast through forecast area today, but precipitation will
continue to be scattered in nature. Some elevated instability over
southern portions of region this afternoon, so still could see
isolated thunder in this area. Otherwise, just scattered showers
under cloudy skies. Temperatures to be near normal or just above
normal in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

(Tonight-Monday)

Overall foreast trends still looking pretty good, and main changes
will be an attempt to fine-tune these trends.

This afternoon`s expected scattered coverage will likely linger into
this evening, but precipitation threat should ramp up considerably
late tonight and into Sunday as dynamics from strong upper system
working northeast from the southern plains and increasing moisture
begin to come into phase over the region.  Like the trends suggested
by 00z model QPFs that by Sunday morning main focus of rain will
stretch from southwest into northeast Missouri, with this band of
rain then expanding and working east during the day.  With the above
trends in mind, I`ve also attempted to minimize PoPs in our far e
counties until Sunday afternoon, as moisture and lift will be
somewhat limited in this part of the FA until then.  Although
instability is progged by all models to remain quite limited due to
saturated AMS I`ve continued a mention of thunder over the Ozarks
tonight and into the southeast half of the CWA on Sunday.

All of the 00z output is continuing to suggest that as dynamics with
the first system pushes into the Ohio Valley on Sunday evening, a
secondary area of precip should develop in its wake as another
shortwave drops into the base of the longwave trof.  Ptypes could
become an issue by late Sunday night on the back edge of this round
of precip as southward surge of cold air will be causing the
freezing levels to drop; however at this time not expecting any
major issues as forecast soundings suggest ams will get cold enough
to support snow just as the precip begins to wind down. Threat of
measurable precip with this secondary shortwave should come to an
end on Monday morning, although we do anticipate that some flurries
will linger into the afternoon over northern sections of the CWA
where cold advection and cyclonic low level flow will be the
strongest.

Today`s moderation in temps will persist into Sunday, but return
of cold air will mean more below average temperatures for the
start of the new week.

(Tuesday-Friday)

Surface ridge is expected to work across the region on Tuesday,
giving the FA chilly but dry late November weather. It still
appears that another fast moving shortwave digging into
progressive longwave trof will produce a quick shot of lift across
the region by Wednesday, but strongest dynamics will be north of
our area and moisture will be quite limited, so going slight
chance/low chance PoPs still look good at midweek.

Medium range solutions still leaving questions regarding sensible
weather trends heading into the Thanksgiving holiday.  GFS is now
supported by the GEM in suggesting much less deepening of the
longwave trof over the eastern CONUS.  This keeps baroclinicity
further north and allows the next fast moving shortwave to interact
with this thermal gradient, which would suggest a threat of some
light precip on Thanksgiving over northern sections of the CWA.
ECMWF is still deeper with the trof to our east, but its interesting
that its not as deep as was suggested in yesterday`s guidance, and
in fact has trended a bit more towards a flatter mid level flow.
For now will maintain dry forecast, but this trend will be
interesting to watch over the next few forecast cycles.

With the reintensification of the trof over the eastern CONUS temps
will remain well below normal during the latter half of the
upcoming work week, although exact extent of the cold will
obviously depend on the intensity of the trof. Highs primarily in
the 30s heading into Thursday and Friday look like a good starting
point for now.

Truett
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 608 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Initial wave of rain has moved out of region but still have widely
scattered showers. However, coverage is spotty so kept tafs dry
through today and early this evening. Otherwise, clouds to remain
over region. Cigs have lifted to VFR for sites along I-70 corridor
while KUIN remains MVFR. Better chances of rain to move in after
06z Sunday with cigs lowering back down to mvfr. As for winds, LLWS to
persist through 14z Saturday before mixing out. Winds then will
persist from the south through the forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL:
Initial wave of rain has moved out of region but still have widely
scattered showers. However, coverage is spotty so kept taf dry
through today and early this evening. Otherwise, clouds to remain
over region. Cigs have lifted to VFR for metro area. Better chances
of rain to move in after 09z Sunday with cigs lowering back down
to mvfr. As for winds, LLWS to persist through 14z Saturday before
mixing out. Winds then will persist from the south through the
forecast period.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 221208
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
608 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Main area of precipitation has moved out of region, though there is
some widely scattered activity as well as drizzle over northern
portions of forecast area early this morning. Next shortwave to
slide northeast through forecast area today, but precipitation will
continue to be scattered in nature. Some elevated instability over
southern portions of region this afternoon, so still could see
isolated thunder in this area. Otherwise, just scattered showers
under cloudy skies. Temperatures to be near normal or just above
normal in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

(Tonight-Monday)

Overall foreast trends still looking pretty good, and main changes
will be an attempt to fine-tune these trends.

This afternoon`s expected scattered coverage will likely linger into
this evening, but precipitation threat should ramp up considerably
late tonight and into Sunday as dynamics from strong upper system
working northeast from the southern plains and increasing moisture
begin to come into phase over the region.  Like the trends suggested
by 00z model QPFs that by Sunday morning main focus of rain will
stretch from southwest into northeast Missouri, with this band of
rain then expanding and working east during the day.  With the above
trends in mind, I`ve also attempted to minimize PoPs in our far e
counties until Sunday afternoon, as moisture and lift will be
somewhat limited in this part of the FA until then.  Although
instability is progged by all models to remain quite limited due to
saturated AMS I`ve continued a mention of thunder over the Ozarks
tonight and into the southeast half of the CWA on Sunday.

All of the 00z output is continuing to suggest that as dynamics with
the first system pushes into the Ohio Valley on Sunday evening, a
secondary area of precip should develop in its wake as another
shortwave drops into the base of the longwave trof.  Ptypes could
become an issue by late Sunday night on the back edge of this round
of precip as southward surge of cold air will be causing the
freezing levels to drop; however at this time not expecting any
major issues as forecast soundings suggest ams will get cold enough
to support snow just as the precip begins to wind down. Threat of
measurable precip with this secondary shortwave should come to an
end on Monday morning, although we do anticipate that some flurries
will linger into the afternoon over northern sections of the CWA
where cold advection and cyclonic low level flow will be the
strongest.

Today`s moderation in temps will persist into Sunday, but return
of cold air will mean more below average temperatures for the
start of the new week.

(Tuesday-Friday)

Surface ridge is expected to work across the region on Tuesday,
giving the FA chilly but dry late November weather. It still
appears that another fast moving shortwave digging into
progressive longwave trof will produce a quick shot of lift across
the region by Wednesday, but strongest dynamics will be north of
our area and moisture will be quite limited, so going slight
chance/low chance PoPs still look good at midweek.

Medium range solutions still leaving questions regarding sensible
weather trends heading into the Thanksgiving holiday.  GFS is now
supported by the GEM in suggesting much less deepening of the
longwave trof over the eastern CONUS.  This keeps baroclinicity
further north and allows the next fast moving shortwave to interact
with this thermal gradient, which would suggest a threat of some
light precip on Thanksgiving over northern sections of the CWA.
ECMWF is still deeper with the trof to our east, but its interesting
that its not as deep as was suggested in yesterday`s guidance, and
in fact has trended a bit more towards a flatter mid level flow.
For now will maintain dry forecast, but this trend will be
interesting to watch over the next few forecast cycles.

With the reintensification of the trof over the eastern CONUS temps
will remain well below normal during the latter half of the
upcoming work week, although exact extent of the cold will
obviously depend on the intensity of the trof. Highs primarily in
the 30s heading into Thursday and Friday look like a good starting
point for now.

Truett
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 608 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Initial wave of rain has moved out of region but still have widely
scattered showers. However, coverage is spotty so kept tafs dry
through today and early this evening. Otherwise, clouds to remain
over region. Cigs have lifted to VFR for sites along I-70 corridor
while KUIN remains MVFR. Better chances of rain to move in after
06z Sunday with cigs lowering back down to mvfr. As for winds, LLWS to
persist through 14z Saturday before mixing out. Winds then will
persist from the south through the forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL:
Initial wave of rain has moved out of region but still have widely
scattered showers. However, coverage is spotty so kept taf dry
through today and early this evening. Otherwise, clouds to remain
over region. Cigs have lifted to VFR for metro area. Better chances
of rain to move in after 09z Sunday with cigs lowering back down
to mvfr. As for winds, LLWS to persist through 14z Saturday before
mixing out. Winds then will persist from the south through the
forecast period.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 221208
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
608 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Main area of precipitation has moved out of region, though there is
some widely scattered activity as well as drizzle over northern
portions of forecast area early this morning. Next shortwave to
slide northeast through forecast area today, but precipitation will
continue to be scattered in nature. Some elevated instability over
southern portions of region this afternoon, so still could see
isolated thunder in this area. Otherwise, just scattered showers
under cloudy skies. Temperatures to be near normal or just above
normal in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

(Tonight-Monday)

Overall foreast trends still looking pretty good, and main changes
will be an attempt to fine-tune these trends.

This afternoon`s expected scattered coverage will likely linger into
this evening, but precipitation threat should ramp up considerably
late tonight and into Sunday as dynamics from strong upper system
working northeast from the southern plains and increasing moisture
begin to come into phase over the region.  Like the trends suggested
by 00z model QPFs that by Sunday morning main focus of rain will
stretch from southwest into northeast Missouri, with this band of
rain then expanding and working east during the day.  With the above
trends in mind, I`ve also attempted to minimize PoPs in our far e
counties until Sunday afternoon, as moisture and lift will be
somewhat limited in this part of the FA until then.  Although
instability is progged by all models to remain quite limited due to
saturated AMS I`ve continued a mention of thunder over the Ozarks
tonight and into the southeast half of the CWA on Sunday.

All of the 00z output is continuing to suggest that as dynamics with
the first system pushes into the Ohio Valley on Sunday evening, a
secondary area of precip should develop in its wake as another
shortwave drops into the base of the longwave trof.  Ptypes could
become an issue by late Sunday night on the back edge of this round
of precip as southward surge of cold air will be causing the
freezing levels to drop; however at this time not expecting any
major issues as forecast soundings suggest ams will get cold enough
to support snow just as the precip begins to wind down. Threat of
measurable precip with this secondary shortwave should come to an
end on Monday morning, although we do anticipate that some flurries
will linger into the afternoon over northern sections of the CWA
where cold advection and cyclonic low level flow will be the
strongest.

Today`s moderation in temps will persist into Sunday, but return
of cold air will mean more below average temperatures for the
start of the new week.

(Tuesday-Friday)

Surface ridge is expected to work across the region on Tuesday,
giving the FA chilly but dry late November weather. It still
appears that another fast moving shortwave digging into
progressive longwave trof will produce a quick shot of lift across
the region by Wednesday, but strongest dynamics will be north of
our area and moisture will be quite limited, so going slight
chance/low chance PoPs still look good at midweek.

Medium range solutions still leaving questions regarding sensible
weather trends heading into the Thanksgiving holiday.  GFS is now
supported by the GEM in suggesting much less deepening of the
longwave trof over the eastern CONUS.  This keeps baroclinicity
further north and allows the next fast moving shortwave to interact
with this thermal gradient, which would suggest a threat of some
light precip on Thanksgiving over northern sections of the CWA.
ECMWF is still deeper with the trof to our east, but its interesting
that its not as deep as was suggested in yesterday`s guidance, and
in fact has trended a bit more towards a flatter mid level flow.
For now will maintain dry forecast, but this trend will be
interesting to watch over the next few forecast cycles.

With the reintensification of the trof over the eastern CONUS temps
will remain well below normal during the latter half of the
upcoming work week, although exact extent of the cold will
obviously depend on the intensity of the trof. Highs primarily in
the 30s heading into Thursday and Friday look like a good starting
point for now.

Truett
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 608 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Initial wave of rain has moved out of region but still have widely
scattered showers. However, coverage is spotty so kept tafs dry
through today and early this evening. Otherwise, clouds to remain
over region. Cigs have lifted to VFR for sites along I-70 corridor
while KUIN remains MVFR. Better chances of rain to move in after
06z Sunday with cigs lowering back down to mvfr. As for winds, LLWS to
persist through 14z Saturday before mixing out. Winds then will
persist from the south through the forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL:
Initial wave of rain has moved out of region but still have widely
scattered showers. However, coverage is spotty so kept taf dry
through today and early this evening. Otherwise, clouds to remain
over region. Cigs have lifted to VFR for metro area. Better chances
of rain to move in after 09z Sunday with cigs lowering back down
to mvfr. As for winds, LLWS to persist through 14z Saturday before
mixing out. Winds then will persist from the south through the
forecast period.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KSGF 221147
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
547 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Gulf moisture continues to stream into the Ozarks region this
morning in advance of an approaching disturbance. This disturbance
will force widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms today
into Sunday.

While no severe storms are expected, sufficient elevated cape will
facilitate some thunderstorms, which is evident this morning over
south central Oklahoma.

Specific for today, this rainfall will be somewhat scattered in
nature, with the best areal coverage southeast of Interstate 44.
Rain will become more widespread after midnight tonight and into
Sunday, covering the entire region.

By Monday morning, all rain will exit the Ozarks, leaving behind
rainfall amounts ranging from 0.50 to 1.75 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

Deep northwest flow will become established over much of the lower
48 through the upcoming work week. This pattern will shut down the
Gulf of Mexico, bringing an extended period of dry weather.

As a matter of fact, we are not forecasting any precipitation all
next week. Temperatures in the 40s are expected on an afternoon
basis through Thursday. Another shot of Canadian air will then
surge through southern Missouri by Friday, bringing colder
temperatures.

As of now it looks as though Thursday night`s frontal passage will
be dry due to the lack of available moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 539 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Recent ceilings have generally been
mvfr/low end vfr, and in general guidance and progged soundings
lower ceilings a bit, but generally keep them in the mvfr cat for
much of the taf period. Will see some occasional light
rain showers. Toward the end of the taf period after 23/06z, it
looks like a better setup beginning to develop for low ceilings
with increased low level moisture south of I-44 with increased
chances for showers as well. An approaching front will still be
west of the taf sites by the end of the taf period, and will
maintain gusty s-se winds and low level wind shear where
appropriate.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KEAX 221145
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
545 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning shows us a rather flat progressive
pattern in place across the Nation with a notable shortwave trough
transiting east across northern Mexico on its way into southern
Texas. This helped keep a nice moisture plume advecting across
eastern Kansas and Missouri yesterday, hence the cloudy drizzly
conditions Friday. This activity; i.e. low clouds and drizzle,
should persist through the day today as the shortwave moves into the
Southern Plains before tracking to the northeast later in the
weekend. This should keep light rain and/or drizzle going across
much of the forecast area for today, though temperatures shouldn`t
be too bad as southerly winds should lift everyone`s highs into at
least the 50s --with "around 60" possible south of the Missouri
River--. Far northwest Missouri and a bit of adjacent northeast
Kansas might not have the rain or drizzle, but clouds should be a
ubiquitous factor for everyone today. Did add in isolated thunder
fro areas or west central Missouri into central Missouri based on
some limited instability noted aloft that may result in a few
rumbles of thunder, especially with any of the afternoon activity.
Have kept the highest POPs focused on Saturday night through Sunday
across the eastern half of our forecast area as wind trajectories
look to carry the focus for lift and moisture transport across
southern Missouri into eastern Missouri. Otherwise, have kept
categorical POPs in through the daylight hours of Sunday, but
quickly start moving the precipitation out Sunday night as dry cold
air will begin sweeping in behind the cold front that will move
across Kansas and Missouri during the later half Sunday. However,
have continued to be stingy with the mixed or frozen precipitation
potential on the back side of this exiting system as the cold air
looks to move slowly enough to allow precipitation to end before
temperatures fall enough to freeze anything.

The work week...Cold air will be busy sweeping back into the region
Monday into Tuesday as an energetic Pacific shortwave trough digs
in across the center of the Nation, carving out a large trough which
will allow some cold Canadian air to filter south early in the work
week. This will push prevailing condition back below normal for the
work week. A reinforcing cold front will help push temperatures down
even more Wednesday into Thursday as a quick clipper like system zips
through the northwest flow. This might result in a potential for some
light precipitation Wednesday. Have kept some silent slight chance
POPs going for parts of the forecast area Tuesday night into
Wednesday for this, but confidence is low due to typical timing
issues with the northwest flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 544 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A combination of IFR to LIFR conditions are prevailing at the
terminals early this morning as low clouds and drizzle dominate the
region. These restrictive conditions will likely improve towards the
noon time hour into the low end of the MVFR range for the afternoon.
Conditions will likely deteriorate again this evening, but confidence on
how far down to push the flight category is a bit low. Therefore have
left conditions on the low end edge of MVFR, but think IFR conditions
might develop later in the overnight hours. Otherwise, expect surface
winds to remain from the south through the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KEAX 220954
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
354 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning shows us a rather flat progressive
pattern in place across the Nation with a notable shortwave trough
transiting east across northern Mexico on its way into southern
Texas. This helped keep a nice moisture plume advecting across
eastern Kansas and Missouri yesterday, hence the cloudy drizzly
conditions Friday. This activity; i.e. low clouds and drizzle,
should persist through the day today as the shortwave moves into the
Southern Plains before tracking to the northeast later in the
weekend. This should keep light rain and/or drizzle going across
much of the forecast area for today, though temperatures shouldn`t
be too bad as southerly winds should lift everyone`s highs into at
least the 50s --with "around 60" possible south of the Missouri
River--. Far northwest Missouri and a bit of adjacent northeast
Kansas might not have the rain or drizzle, but clouds should be a
ubiquitous factor for everyone today. Did add in isolated thunder
fro areas or west central Missouri into central Missouri based on
some limited instability noted aloft that may result in a few
rumbles of thunder, especially with any of the afternoon activity.
Have kept the highest POPs focused on Saturday night through Sunday
across the eastern half of our forecast area as wind trajectories
look to carry the focus for lift and moisture transport across
southern Missouri into eastern Missouri. Otherwise, have kept
categorical POPs in through the daylight hours of Sunday, but
quickly start moving the precipitation out Sunday night as dry cold
air will begin sweeping in behind the cold front that will move
across Kansas and Missouri during the later half Sunday. However,
have continued to be stingy with the mixed or frozen precipitation
potential on the back side of this exiting system as the cold air
looks to move slowly enough to allow precipitation to end before
temperatures fall enough to freeze anything.

The work week...Cold air will be busy sweeping back into the region
Monday into Tuesday as an energetic Pacific shortwave trough digs
in across the center of the Nation, carving out a large trough which
will allow some cold Canadian air to filter south early in the work
week. This will push prevailing condition back below normal for the
work week. A reinforcing cold front will help push temperatures down
even more Wednesday into Thursday as a quick clipper like system zips
through the northwest flow. This might result in a potential for some
light precipitation Wednesday. Have kept some silent slight chance
POPs going for parts of the forecast area Tuesday night into
Wednesday for this, but confidence is low due to typical timing
issues with the northwest flow.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Surface conditions beginning to degrade as moisture from the south
continues to work its way north. Will see the onset of fog
development during the overnight hours initiating IFR ceilings with
a period of LIFR ceiling heights shortly thereafter. Not much
anticipated in the way of precipitation other than light drizzle
coupled with the fog. IFR ceilings expected to persist throughout the
morning while increased chances of precipitation will commence in the
afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KEAX 220954
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
354 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning shows us a rather flat progressive
pattern in place across the Nation with a notable shortwave trough
transiting east across northern Mexico on its way into southern
Texas. This helped keep a nice moisture plume advecting across
eastern Kansas and Missouri yesterday, hence the cloudy drizzly
conditions Friday. This activity; i.e. low clouds and drizzle,
should persist through the day today as the shortwave moves into the
Southern Plains before tracking to the northeast later in the
weekend. This should keep light rain and/or drizzle going across
much of the forecast area for today, though temperatures shouldn`t
be too bad as southerly winds should lift everyone`s highs into at
least the 50s --with "around 60" possible south of the Missouri
River--. Far northwest Missouri and a bit of adjacent northeast
Kansas might not have the rain or drizzle, but clouds should be a
ubiquitous factor for everyone today. Did add in isolated thunder
fro areas or west central Missouri into central Missouri based on
some limited instability noted aloft that may result in a few
rumbles of thunder, especially with any of the afternoon activity.
Have kept the highest POPs focused on Saturday night through Sunday
across the eastern half of our forecast area as wind trajectories
look to carry the focus for lift and moisture transport across
southern Missouri into eastern Missouri. Otherwise, have kept
categorical POPs in through the daylight hours of Sunday, but
quickly start moving the precipitation out Sunday night as dry cold
air will begin sweeping in behind the cold front that will move
across Kansas and Missouri during the later half Sunday. However,
have continued to be stingy with the mixed or frozen precipitation
potential on the back side of this exiting system as the cold air
looks to move slowly enough to allow precipitation to end before
temperatures fall enough to freeze anything.

The work week...Cold air will be busy sweeping back into the region
Monday into Tuesday as an energetic Pacific shortwave trough digs
in across the center of the Nation, carving out a large trough which
will allow some cold Canadian air to filter south early in the work
week. This will push prevailing condition back below normal for the
work week. A reinforcing cold front will help push temperatures down
even more Wednesday into Thursday as a quick clipper like system zips
through the northwest flow. This might result in a potential for some
light precipitation Wednesday. Have kept some silent slight chance
POPs going for parts of the forecast area Tuesday night into
Wednesday for this, but confidence is low due to typical timing
issues with the northwest flow.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Surface conditions beginning to degrade as moisture from the south
continues to work its way north. Will see the onset of fog
development during the overnight hours initiating IFR ceilings with
a period of LIFR ceiling heights shortly thereafter. Not much
anticipated in the way of precipitation other than light drizzle
coupled with the fog. IFR ceilings expected to persist throughout the
morning while increased chances of precipitation will commence in the
afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KEAX 220954
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
354 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning shows us a rather flat progressive
pattern in place across the Nation with a notable shortwave trough
transiting east across northern Mexico on its way into southern
Texas. This helped keep a nice moisture plume advecting across
eastern Kansas and Missouri yesterday, hence the cloudy drizzly
conditions Friday. This activity; i.e. low clouds and drizzle,
should persist through the day today as the shortwave moves into the
Southern Plains before tracking to the northeast later in the
weekend. This should keep light rain and/or drizzle going across
much of the forecast area for today, though temperatures shouldn`t
be too bad as southerly winds should lift everyone`s highs into at
least the 50s --with "around 60" possible south of the Missouri
River--. Far northwest Missouri and a bit of adjacent northeast
Kansas might not have the rain or drizzle, but clouds should be a
ubiquitous factor for everyone today. Did add in isolated thunder
fro areas or west central Missouri into central Missouri based on
some limited instability noted aloft that may result in a few
rumbles of thunder, especially with any of the afternoon activity.
Have kept the highest POPs focused on Saturday night through Sunday
across the eastern half of our forecast area as wind trajectories
look to carry the focus for lift and moisture transport across
southern Missouri into eastern Missouri. Otherwise, have kept
categorical POPs in through the daylight hours of Sunday, but
quickly start moving the precipitation out Sunday night as dry cold
air will begin sweeping in behind the cold front that will move
across Kansas and Missouri during the later half Sunday. However,
have continued to be stingy with the mixed or frozen precipitation
potential on the back side of this exiting system as the cold air
looks to move slowly enough to allow precipitation to end before
temperatures fall enough to freeze anything.

The work week...Cold air will be busy sweeping back into the region
Monday into Tuesday as an energetic Pacific shortwave trough digs
in across the center of the Nation, carving out a large trough which
will allow some cold Canadian air to filter south early in the work
week. This will push prevailing condition back below normal for the
work week. A reinforcing cold front will help push temperatures down
even more Wednesday into Thursday as a quick clipper like system zips
through the northwest flow. This might result in a potential for some
light precipitation Wednesday. Have kept some silent slight chance
POPs going for parts of the forecast area Tuesday night into
Wednesday for this, but confidence is low due to typical timing
issues with the northwest flow.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Surface conditions beginning to degrade as moisture from the south
continues to work its way north. Will see the onset of fog
development during the overnight hours initiating IFR ceilings with
a period of LIFR ceiling heights shortly thereafter. Not much
anticipated in the way of precipitation other than light drizzle
coupled with the fog. IFR ceilings expected to persist throughout the
morning while increased chances of precipitation will commence in the
afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 220954
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
354 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning shows us a rather flat progressive
pattern in place across the Nation with a notable shortwave trough
transiting east across northern Mexico on its way into southern
Texas. This helped keep a nice moisture plume advecting across
eastern Kansas and Missouri yesterday, hence the cloudy drizzly
conditions Friday. This activity; i.e. low clouds and drizzle,
should persist through the day today as the shortwave moves into the
Southern Plains before tracking to the northeast later in the
weekend. This should keep light rain and/or drizzle going across
much of the forecast area for today, though temperatures shouldn`t
be too bad as southerly winds should lift everyone`s highs into at
least the 50s --with "around 60" possible south of the Missouri
River--. Far northwest Missouri and a bit of adjacent northeast
Kansas might not have the rain or drizzle, but clouds should be a
ubiquitous factor for everyone today. Did add in isolated thunder
fro areas or west central Missouri into central Missouri based on
some limited instability noted aloft that may result in a few
rumbles of thunder, especially with any of the afternoon activity.
Have kept the highest POPs focused on Saturday night through Sunday
across the eastern half of our forecast area as wind trajectories
look to carry the focus for lift and moisture transport across
southern Missouri into eastern Missouri. Otherwise, have kept
categorical POPs in through the daylight hours of Sunday, but
quickly start moving the precipitation out Sunday night as dry cold
air will begin sweeping in behind the cold front that will move
across Kansas and Missouri during the later half Sunday. However,
have continued to be stingy with the mixed or frozen precipitation
potential on the back side of this exiting system as the cold air
looks to move slowly enough to allow precipitation to end before
temperatures fall enough to freeze anything.

The work week...Cold air will be busy sweeping back into the region
Monday into Tuesday as an energetic Pacific shortwave trough digs
in across the center of the Nation, carving out a large trough which
will allow some cold Canadian air to filter south early in the work
week. This will push prevailing condition back below normal for the
work week. A reinforcing cold front will help push temperatures down
even more Wednesday into Thursday as a quick clipper like system zips
through the northwest flow. This might result in a potential for some
light precipitation Wednesday. Have kept some silent slight chance
POPs going for parts of the forecast area Tuesday night into
Wednesday for this, but confidence is low due to typical timing
issues with the northwest flow.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Surface conditions beginning to degrade as moisture from the south
continues to work its way north. Will see the onset of fog
development during the overnight hours initiating IFR ceilings with
a period of LIFR ceiling heights shortly thereafter. Not much
anticipated in the way of precipitation other than light drizzle
coupled with the fog. IFR ceilings expected to persist throughout the
morning while increased chances of precipitation will commence in the
afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 220954
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
354 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning shows us a rather flat progressive
pattern in place across the Nation with a notable shortwave trough
transiting east across northern Mexico on its way into southern
Texas. This helped keep a nice moisture plume advecting across
eastern Kansas and Missouri yesterday, hence the cloudy drizzly
conditions Friday. This activity; i.e. low clouds and drizzle,
should persist through the day today as the shortwave moves into the
Southern Plains before tracking to the northeast later in the
weekend. This should keep light rain and/or drizzle going across
much of the forecast area for today, though temperatures shouldn`t
be too bad as southerly winds should lift everyone`s highs into at
least the 50s --with "around 60" possible south of the Missouri
River--. Far northwest Missouri and a bit of adjacent northeast
Kansas might not have the rain or drizzle, but clouds should be a
ubiquitous factor for everyone today. Did add in isolated thunder
fro areas or west central Missouri into central Missouri based on
some limited instability noted aloft that may result in a few
rumbles of thunder, especially with any of the afternoon activity.
Have kept the highest POPs focused on Saturday night through Sunday
across the eastern half of our forecast area as wind trajectories
look to carry the focus for lift and moisture transport across
southern Missouri into eastern Missouri. Otherwise, have kept
categorical POPs in through the daylight hours of Sunday, but
quickly start moving the precipitation out Sunday night as dry cold
air will begin sweeping in behind the cold front that will move
across Kansas and Missouri during the later half Sunday. However,
have continued to be stingy with the mixed or frozen precipitation
potential on the back side of this exiting system as the cold air
looks to move slowly enough to allow precipitation to end before
temperatures fall enough to freeze anything.

The work week...Cold air will be busy sweeping back into the region
Monday into Tuesday as an energetic Pacific shortwave trough digs
in across the center of the Nation, carving out a large trough which
will allow some cold Canadian air to filter south early in the work
week. This will push prevailing condition back below normal for the
work week. A reinforcing cold front will help push temperatures down
even more Wednesday into Thursday as a quick clipper like system zips
through the northwest flow. This might result in a potential for some
light precipitation Wednesday. Have kept some silent slight chance
POPs going for parts of the forecast area Tuesday night into
Wednesday for this, but confidence is low due to typical timing
issues with the northwest flow.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Surface conditions beginning to degrade as moisture from the south
continues to work its way north. Will see the onset of fog
development during the overnight hours initiating IFR ceilings with
a period of LIFR ceiling heights shortly thereafter. Not much
anticipated in the way of precipitation other than light drizzle
coupled with the fog. IFR ceilings expected to persist throughout the
morning while increased chances of precipitation will commence in the
afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 220954
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
354 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning shows us a rather flat progressive
pattern in place across the Nation with a notable shortwave trough
transiting east across northern Mexico on its way into southern
Texas. This helped keep a nice moisture plume advecting across
eastern Kansas and Missouri yesterday, hence the cloudy drizzly
conditions Friday. This activity; i.e. low clouds and drizzle,
should persist through the day today as the shortwave moves into the
Southern Plains before tracking to the northeast later in the
weekend. This should keep light rain and/or drizzle going across
much of the forecast area for today, though temperatures shouldn`t
be too bad as southerly winds should lift everyone`s highs into at
least the 50s --with "around 60" possible south of the Missouri
River--. Far northwest Missouri and a bit of adjacent northeast
Kansas might not have the rain or drizzle, but clouds should be a
ubiquitous factor for everyone today. Did add in isolated thunder
fro areas or west central Missouri into central Missouri based on
some limited instability noted aloft that may result in a few
rumbles of thunder, especially with any of the afternoon activity.
Have kept the highest POPs focused on Saturday night through Sunday
across the eastern half of our forecast area as wind trajectories
look to carry the focus for lift and moisture transport across
southern Missouri into eastern Missouri. Otherwise, have kept
categorical POPs in through the daylight hours of Sunday, but
quickly start moving the precipitation out Sunday night as dry cold
air will begin sweeping in behind the cold front that will move
across Kansas and Missouri during the later half Sunday. However,
have continued to be stingy with the mixed or frozen precipitation
potential on the back side of this exiting system as the cold air
looks to move slowly enough to allow precipitation to end before
temperatures fall enough to freeze anything.

The work week...Cold air will be busy sweeping back into the region
Monday into Tuesday as an energetic Pacific shortwave trough digs
in across the center of the Nation, carving out a large trough which
will allow some cold Canadian air to filter south early in the work
week. This will push prevailing condition back below normal for the
work week. A reinforcing cold front will help push temperatures down
even more Wednesday into Thursday as a quick clipper like system zips
through the northwest flow. This might result in a potential for some
light precipitation Wednesday. Have kept some silent slight chance
POPs going for parts of the forecast area Tuesday night into
Wednesday for this, but confidence is low due to typical timing
issues with the northwest flow.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Surface conditions beginning to degrade as moisture from the south
continues to work its way north. Will see the onset of fog
development during the overnight hours initiating IFR ceilings with
a period of LIFR ceiling heights shortly thereafter. Not much
anticipated in the way of precipitation other than light drizzle
coupled with the fog. IFR ceilings expected to persist throughout the
morning while increased chances of precipitation will commence in the
afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KLSX 220925
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
325 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Main area of precipitation has moved out of region, though there is
some widely scattered activity as well as drizzle over northern
portions of forecast area early this morning. Next shortwave to
slide northeast through forecast area today, but precipitation will
continue to be scattered in nature. Some elevated instability over
southern portions of region this afternoon, so still could see
isolated thunder in this area. Otherwise, just scattered showers
under cloudy skies. Temperatures to be near normal or just above
normal in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

(Tonight-Monday)

Overall foreast trends still looking pretty good, and main changes
will be an attempt to fine-tune these trends.

This afternoon`s expected scattered coverage will likely linger into
this evening, but precipitation threat should ramp up considerably
late tonight and into Sunday as dynamics from strong upper system
working northeast from the southern plains and increasing moisture
begin to come into phase over the region.  Like the trends suggested
by 00z model QPFs that by Sunday morning main focus of rain will
stretch from southwest into northeast Missouri, with this band of
rain then expanding and working east during the day.  With the above
trends in mind, I`ve also attempted to minimize PoPs in our far e
counties until Sunday afternoon, as moisture and lift will be
somewhat limited in this part of the FA until then.  Although
instability is progged by all models to remain quite limited due to
saturated AMS I`ve continued a mention of thunder over the Ozarks
tonight and into the southeast half of the CWA on Sunday.

All of the 00z output is continuing to suggest that as dynamics with
the first system pushes into the Ohio Valley on Sunday evening, a
secondary area of precip should develop in its wake as another
shortwave drops into the base of the longwave trof.  Ptypes could
become an issue by late Sunday night on the back edge of this round
of precip as southward surge of cold air will be causing the
freezing levels to drop; however at this time not expecting any
major issues as forecast soundings suggest ams will get cold enough
to support snow just as the precip begins to wind down. Threat of
measurable precip with this secondary shortwave should come to an
end on Monday morning, although we do anticipate that some flurries
will linger into the afternoon over northern sections of the CWA
where cold advection and cyclonic low level flow will be the
strongest.

Today`s moderation in temps will persist into Sunday, but return
of cold air will mean more below average temperatures for the
start of the new week.

(Tuesday-Friday)

Surface ridge is expected to work across the region on Tuesday,
giving the FA chilly but dry late November weather. It still
appears that another fast moving shortwave digging into
progressive longwave trof will produce a quick shot of lift across
the region by Wednesday, but strongest dynamics will be north of
our area and moisture will be quite limited, so going slight
chance/low chance PoPs still look good at midweek.

Medium range solutions still leaving questions regarding sensible
weather trends heading into the Thanksgiving holiday.  GFS is now
supported by the GEM in suggesting much less deepening of the
longwave trof over the eastern CONUS.  This keeps baroclinicity
further north and allows the next fast moving shortwave to interact
with this thermal gradient, which would suggest a threat of some
light precip on Thanksgiving over northern sections of the CWA.
ECMWF is still deeper with the trof to our east, but its interesting
that its not as deep as was suggested in yesterday`s guidance, and
in fact has trended a bit more towards a flatter mid level flow.
For now will maintain dry forecast, but this trend will be
interesting to watch over the next few forecast cycles.

With the reintensification of the trof over the eastern CONUS temps
will remain well below normal during the latter half of the
upcoming work week, although exact extent of the cold will
obviously depend on the intensity of the trof. Highs primarily in
the 30s heading into Thursday and Friday look like a good starting
point for now.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

MVFR conditions are expected to prevail overnight and for most of
tomorrow. Some improvement is possible at KCOU between 22/21z and
23/06z before conditions deteriorate again. Light drizzle is
possible overnight. Widespread rain is likely just beyond the end
of the 24-hr TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL: Although conditions may occasionally lift to
VFR for brief periods overnight, MVFR cigs are expected to prevail
until mid to late morning. Light drizzle is also possible.
Widespread rain is likely towards the end of the 30-hr TAF period
and beyond.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 220925
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
325 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Main area of precipitation has moved out of region, though there is
some widely scattered activity as well as drizzle over northern
portions of forecast area early this morning. Next shortwave to
slide northeast through forecast area today, but precipitation will
continue to be scattered in nature. Some elevated instability over
southern portions of region this afternoon, so still could see
isolated thunder in this area. Otherwise, just scattered showers
under cloudy skies. Temperatures to be near normal or just above
normal in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

(Tonight-Monday)

Overall foreast trends still looking pretty good, and main changes
will be an attempt to fine-tune these trends.

This afternoon`s expected scattered coverage will likely linger into
this evening, but precipitation threat should ramp up considerably
late tonight and into Sunday as dynamics from strong upper system
working northeast from the southern plains and increasing moisture
begin to come into phase over the region.  Like the trends suggested
by 00z model QPFs that by Sunday morning main focus of rain will
stretch from southwest into northeast Missouri, with this band of
rain then expanding and working east during the day.  With the above
trends in mind, I`ve also attempted to minimize PoPs in our far e
counties until Sunday afternoon, as moisture and lift will be
somewhat limited in this part of the FA until then.  Although
instability is progged by all models to remain quite limited due to
saturated AMS I`ve continued a mention of thunder over the Ozarks
tonight and into the southeast half of the CWA on Sunday.

All of the 00z output is continuing to suggest that as dynamics with
the first system pushes into the Ohio Valley on Sunday evening, a
secondary area of precip should develop in its wake as another
shortwave drops into the base of the longwave trof.  Ptypes could
become an issue by late Sunday night on the back edge of this round
of precip as southward surge of cold air will be causing the
freezing levels to drop; however at this time not expecting any
major issues as forecast soundings suggest ams will get cold enough
to support snow just as the precip begins to wind down. Threat of
measurable precip with this secondary shortwave should come to an
end on Monday morning, although we do anticipate that some flurries
will linger into the afternoon over northern sections of the CWA
where cold advection and cyclonic low level flow will be the
strongest.

Today`s moderation in temps will persist into Sunday, but return
of cold air will mean more below average temperatures for the
start of the new week.

(Tuesday-Friday)

Surface ridge is expected to work across the region on Tuesday,
giving the FA chilly but dry late November weather. It still
appears that another fast moving shortwave digging into
progressive longwave trof will produce a quick shot of lift across
the region by Wednesday, but strongest dynamics will be north of
our area and moisture will be quite limited, so going slight
chance/low chance PoPs still look good at midweek.

Medium range solutions still leaving questions regarding sensible
weather trends heading into the Thanksgiving holiday.  GFS is now
supported by the GEM in suggesting much less deepening of the
longwave trof over the eastern CONUS.  This keeps baroclinicity
further north and allows the next fast moving shortwave to interact
with this thermal gradient, which would suggest a threat of some
light precip on Thanksgiving over northern sections of the CWA.
ECMWF is still deeper with the trof to our east, but its interesting
that its not as deep as was suggested in yesterday`s guidance, and
in fact has trended a bit more towards a flatter mid level flow.
For now will maintain dry forecast, but this trend will be
interesting to watch over the next few forecast cycles.

With the reintensification of the trof over the eastern CONUS temps
will remain well below normal during the latter half of the
upcoming work week, although exact extent of the cold will
obviously depend on the intensity of the trof. Highs primarily in
the 30s heading into Thursday and Friday look like a good starting
point for now.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

MVFR conditions are expected to prevail overnight and for most of
tomorrow. Some improvement is possible at KCOU between 22/21z and
23/06z before conditions deteriorate again. Light drizzle is
possible overnight. Widespread rain is likely just beyond the end
of the 24-hr TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL: Although conditions may occasionally lift to
VFR for brief periods overnight, MVFR cigs are expected to prevail
until mid to late morning. Light drizzle is also possible.
Widespread rain is likely towards the end of the 30-hr TAF period
and beyond.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 220903
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
303 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Gulf moisture continues to stream into the Ozarks region this
morning in advance of an approaching disturbance. This disturbance
will force widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms today
into Sunday.

While no severe storms are expected, sufficient elevated cape will
facilitate some thunderstorms, which is evident this morning over
south central Oklahoma.

Specific for today, this rainfall will be somewhat scattered in
nature, with the best areal coverage southeast of Interstate 44.
Rain will become more widespread after midnight tonight and into
Sunday, covering the entire region.

By Monday morning, all rain will exit the Ozarks, leaving behind
rainfall amounts ranging from 0.50 to 1.75 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

Deep northwest flow will become established over much of the lower
48 through the upcoming work week. This pattern will shut down the
Gulf of Mexico, bringing an extended period of dry weather.

As a matter of fact, we are not forecasting any precipitation all
next week. Temperatures in the 40s are expected on an afternoon
basis through Thursday. Another shot of Canadian air will then
surge through southern Missouri by Friday, bringing colder
temperatures.

As of now it looks as though Thursday night`s frontal passage will
be dry due to the lack of available moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Low level moisture will remain abundant across the region through
Saturday evening as a warm front remains in the vicinity of
southern Missouri. Flight categories into early Saturday morning
will generally be in the IFR category, but some brief improvement
to MVFR can be expected at times. Weather models then continue to
struggle with consistency regarding flight categories from later
Saturday morning into Saturday evening. Some models keep southern
Missouri in IFR while others lift ceilings into MVFR and even VFR.
We have chosen to go middle of the road for now and gradually lift
ceilings into the MVFR category sometime later Saturday morning or
Saturday afternoon. We are confident that scattered rain showers
will develop across the area on Saturday. Meanwhile, surface
winds will remain brisk out of the southeast to south and will be
gusty again on Saturday. Low level wind shear will continue into
early Saturday morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 220903
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
303 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Gulf moisture continues to stream into the Ozarks region this
morning in advance of an approaching disturbance. This disturbance
will force widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms today
into Sunday.

While no severe storms are expected, sufficient elevated cape will
facilitate some thunderstorms, which is evident this morning over
south central Oklahoma.

Specific for today, this rainfall will be somewhat scattered in
nature, with the best areal coverage southeast of Interstate 44.
Rain will become more widespread after midnight tonight and into
Sunday, covering the entire region.

By Monday morning, all rain will exit the Ozarks, leaving behind
rainfall amounts ranging from 0.50 to 1.75 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

Deep northwest flow will become established over much of the lower
48 through the upcoming work week. This pattern will shut down the
Gulf of Mexico, bringing an extended period of dry weather.

As a matter of fact, we are not forecasting any precipitation all
next week. Temperatures in the 40s are expected on an afternoon
basis through Thursday. Another shot of Canadian air will then
surge through southern Missouri by Friday, bringing colder
temperatures.

As of now it looks as though Thursday night`s frontal passage will
be dry due to the lack of available moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Low level moisture will remain abundant across the region through
Saturday evening as a warm front remains in the vicinity of
southern Missouri. Flight categories into early Saturday morning
will generally be in the IFR category, but some brief improvement
to MVFR can be expected at times. Weather models then continue to
struggle with consistency regarding flight categories from later
Saturday morning into Saturday evening. Some models keep southern
Missouri in IFR while others lift ceilings into MVFR and even VFR.
We have chosen to go middle of the road for now and gradually lift
ceilings into the MVFR category sometime later Saturday morning or
Saturday afternoon. We are confident that scattered rain showers
will develop across the area on Saturday. Meanwhile, surface
winds will remain brisk out of the southeast to south and will be
gusty again on Saturday. Low level wind shear will continue into
early Saturday morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 220638
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1238 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

We have made a few tweaks to the overnight and early Saturday
morning forecast. First off, patchy fog was inserted across south-
central Missouri as the setup has become favorable for advection
fog north of a warm front which was located near I-40. We may also
see some terrain effects come into play in the form of upslope and
stratus build-down. Thus, we have generally kept the fog mention
along and south of the Ozark Plateau spine.

We have also trimmed back PoPs overnight over most areas. While we
will continue to see patchy drizzle, shower activity will be
isolated to widely scattered in nature over most areas. The one
exception may be later tonight from southeastern Kansas into west-
central Missouri where slightly better lift and instability will
exist. We have kept PoPs around 40% in this area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Cloudy, cool conditions have been observed across the region thus
far today. As expected, rain and drizzle has been spotty, with one
batch exiting into central, MO and another entering southern and
south central MO. Temperatures do range quite a bit across the
area with near 60 degrees at Joplin and around 40 at West Plains.
Temperatures will oscillate a bit this evening, with steady/slowly
rising temperatures expected once again tonight as continued,
strong low level warm air advection continues.

As has been discussed over the past few days, we continue to
battle pockets of lift and an overall dry atmosphere. Moisture
return has been mainly confined to the low level jet level, good
enough to produce widespread stratus, but not so good at producing
widespread rain to this point. The story remains the same tonight
into Saturday as the main upper level system will be just a bit
slower to enter the region than previously anticipated. As a
result, the best chances for widespread, soaking rains will be
Saturday night and Sunday. Models continue to spit out low values
of most unstable CAPE, so will continue the slight chance mention
for thunder tonight through Sunday. Overall, expected rainfall
amounts are about the same, one to one and a half inches, with the
highest amounts over the eastern half of the area. Can`t
completely rule out a few wet snowflakes Sunday night as the
system exits, but not expecting any impacts.

Temperature wise, mild readings will persist through the weekend, a
very welcome change from the past 10 or so days. The cold front
will move into the region later Sunday into Sunday night, however,
ending our brief stretch of mild (normal) November temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A deep trough will develop over the central U.S. early next week
with below average temperatures returning to the area. Scattered
showers will end over the eastern Ozarks early Monday morning.
Monday will be a breezy and colder day. Clouds will try to clear
from southwest to northeast but the Lake of the Ozarks region will
likely hold on to the clouds all day.

Another shortwave will move across the region on Wednesday which
will bring clouds with the system but overall it will be moisture
starved. A cold will move through on Wednesday and bring another
reinforcing shot of cold air for Thursday into Friday. It will be
rather quiet with the weather for travelers on Wednesday. And right
now Thanksgiving looks to be cold and mostly sunny.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Low level moisture will remain abundant across the region through
Saturday evening as a warm front remains in the vicinity of
southern Missouri. Flight categories into early Saturday morning
will generally be in the IFR category, but some brief improvement
to MVFR can be expected at times. Weather models then continue to
struggle with consistency regarding flight categories from later
Saturday morning into Saturday evening. Some models keep southern
Missouri in IFR while others lift ceilings into MVFR and even VFR.
We have chosen to go middle of the road for now and gradually lift
ceilings into the MVFR category sometime later Saturday morning or
Saturday afternoon. We are confident that scattered rain showers
will develop across the area on Saturday. Meanwhile, surface
winds will remain brisk out of the southeast to south and will be
gusty again on Saturday. Low level wind shear will continue into
early Saturday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 220638
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1238 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

We have made a few tweaks to the overnight and early Saturday
morning forecast. First off, patchy fog was inserted across south-
central Missouri as the setup has become favorable for advection
fog north of a warm front which was located near I-40. We may also
see some terrain effects come into play in the form of upslope and
stratus build-down. Thus, we have generally kept the fog mention
along and south of the Ozark Plateau spine.

We have also trimmed back PoPs overnight over most areas. While we
will continue to see patchy drizzle, shower activity will be
isolated to widely scattered in nature over most areas. The one
exception may be later tonight from southeastern Kansas into west-
central Missouri where slightly better lift and instability will
exist. We have kept PoPs around 40% in this area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Cloudy, cool conditions have been observed across the region thus
far today. As expected, rain and drizzle has been spotty, with one
batch exiting into central, MO and another entering southern and
south central MO. Temperatures do range quite a bit across the
area with near 60 degrees at Joplin and around 40 at West Plains.
Temperatures will oscillate a bit this evening, with steady/slowly
rising temperatures expected once again tonight as continued,
strong low level warm air advection continues.

As has been discussed over the past few days, we continue to
battle pockets of lift and an overall dry atmosphere. Moisture
return has been mainly confined to the low level jet level, good
enough to produce widespread stratus, but not so good at producing
widespread rain to this point. The story remains the same tonight
into Saturday as the main upper level system will be just a bit
slower to enter the region than previously anticipated. As a
result, the best chances for widespread, soaking rains will be
Saturday night and Sunday. Models continue to spit out low values
of most unstable CAPE, so will continue the slight chance mention
for thunder tonight through Sunday. Overall, expected rainfall
amounts are about the same, one to one and a half inches, with the
highest amounts over the eastern half of the area. Can`t
completely rule out a few wet snowflakes Sunday night as the
system exits, but not expecting any impacts.

Temperature wise, mild readings will persist through the weekend, a
very welcome change from the past 10 or so days. The cold front
will move into the region later Sunday into Sunday night, however,
ending our brief stretch of mild (normal) November temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A deep trough will develop over the central U.S. early next week
with below average temperatures returning to the area. Scattered
showers will end over the eastern Ozarks early Monday morning.
Monday will be a breezy and colder day. Clouds will try to clear
from southwest to northeast but the Lake of the Ozarks region will
likely hold on to the clouds all day.

Another shortwave will move across the region on Wednesday which
will bring clouds with the system but overall it will be moisture
starved. A cold will move through on Wednesday and bring another
reinforcing shot of cold air for Thursday into Friday. It will be
rather quiet with the weather for travelers on Wednesday. And right
now Thanksgiving looks to be cold and mostly sunny.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Low level moisture will remain abundant across the region through
Saturday evening as a warm front remains in the vicinity of
southern Missouri. Flight categories into early Saturday morning
will generally be in the IFR category, but some brief improvement
to MVFR can be expected at times. Weather models then continue to
struggle with consistency regarding flight categories from later
Saturday morning into Saturday evening. Some models keep southern
Missouri in IFR while others lift ceilings into MVFR and even VFR.
We have chosen to go middle of the road for now and gradually lift
ceilings into the MVFR category sometime later Saturday morning or
Saturday afternoon. We are confident that scattered rain showers
will develop across the area on Saturday. Meanwhile, surface
winds will remain brisk out of the southeast to south and will be
gusty again on Saturday. Low level wind shear will continue into
early Saturday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KLSX 220610
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1210 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1008 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Weak lift and mid level moisture associated with a low-amplitude shortwave
currently located in western MO combined with lift via a southwesterly
LLJ has generated some showers this evening. These showers were
currenly located to the west of the MS river across southwest and
south central IL, moving to the northeast at 30-35 kts. The showers
should exit the CWA by midnight as the shortwave continues to
migrate eastward in the west-southwest flow aloft, also taking the
mid level moisture with it. In its wake during the overnight
hours, the atmosphere will be bottom heavy with moisture confined
to the low levels. This moisture stratification along with continued
weak ascent via low level WAA would support patchy light rain or
drizzle. Accordingly I have lowered pops a bit and refined the
precipitation mode.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Will continue the chance of light rain as low level moisture
convergence and large scale ascent increases ahead of shortwave
trough currently moving towards us across the central Plains.  There
are two small areas of rain that have developed ahead of this
system...one over west central Missouri which will move into central
and northeast Missouri later this afternoon and a second over
northern Arkansas which will move into southeast Missouri.  Rain
chances will increase areawide this evening as aforementioned trough
moves across Missouri and Illinois.  Chances will continue through
the night as a 50kt low level jet sets up over the region which will
provide more low level moisture convergence.  At this time it still
appears that precipitation from this event will be mostly liquid as
dewpoints are steadily rising as rain moves into the area.  Both the
HRRR and RUC are showing that the surface wet-bulb temperatures will
be at or above freezing during the onset of precipitation through
early this evening with temperatures continuing to rise through the
late evening hours.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

At least scattered light showers can be expected Saturday and
Saturday night due to low-mid level warm air advection and as a
southwesterly low level jet continues to bring low level moisture
into the area.  The best chance of rain along with the highest
rainfall amounts should occur on Sunday as a southern stream
negatively tilted shortwave moves through the southern Plains and
into the TN Valley region, while an upper level low moves
southeastward into the northern Plains.  There will be upper level
divergence over our area between an upper level jet streak across
the southern Plains and another upper level jet streak across the
Great Lakes region.  A surface low will develop and deepen as it
moves northeastward through the St Louis area around 00z Monday.
There should be at least isolated thunderstorms across portion sof
central and southeast MO and southwest IL.  Temperatures will be
much warmer this weekend and above normal for a change.  Much of the
precipitation should shift east of our forecast area Sunday night as
colder and drier air filters southeastward into the region behind
the surface low and trailing cold front.  There may be some
lingering precipitation Sunday night into Monday morning as
shortwaves move through the area south of the upper level low which
will progress slowly eastward into the Great Lakes region.  The rain
may change over to some light snow across northeast MO and west
central IL late Sunday night and Monday as colder air continues to
advect into the region.  Temperatures will return to below normal
values beginning Monday with both the GFS and ECMWF models dropping
the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm down to STL by 18z Monday.  Below
normal temperatures are expected from Monday through Thanksgiving
with little if any precipitation as a deep upper level trough moves
slowly eastward through the central US.  The ECMWF model does drop a
northwest flow, clipper type shortwave and associated weak surface
low southeastward through our area which could bring the potential
for a brief period of snow on Wednesday, but the GFS is much weaker
with this feature and only has very light QPF.  A strong surface
ridge will build southeastward into MO for Wednesday night and
Thanksgiving Day with unseasonably cold temperatures expected.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

MVFR conditions are expected to prevail overnight and for most of
tomorrow. Some improvement is possible at KCOU between 22/21z and
23/06z before conditions deteriorate again. Light drizzle is
possible overnight. Widespread rain is likely just beyond the end
of the 24-hr TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL: Although conditions may occasionally lift to
VFR for brief periods overnight, MVFR cigs are expected to prevail
until mid to late morning. Light drizzle is also possible.
Widespread rain is likely towards the end of the 30-hr TAF period
and beyond.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 220610
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1210 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1008 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Weak lift and mid level moisture associated with a low-amplitude shortwave
currently located in western MO combined with lift via a southwesterly
LLJ has generated some showers this evening. These showers were
currenly located to the west of the MS river across southwest and
south central IL, moving to the northeast at 30-35 kts. The showers
should exit the CWA by midnight as the shortwave continues to
migrate eastward in the west-southwest flow aloft, also taking the
mid level moisture with it. In its wake during the overnight
hours, the atmosphere will be bottom heavy with moisture confined
to the low levels. This moisture stratification along with continued
weak ascent via low level WAA would support patchy light rain or
drizzle. Accordingly I have lowered pops a bit and refined the
precipitation mode.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Will continue the chance of light rain as low level moisture
convergence and large scale ascent increases ahead of shortwave
trough currently moving towards us across the central Plains.  There
are two small areas of rain that have developed ahead of this
system...one over west central Missouri which will move into central
and northeast Missouri later this afternoon and a second over
northern Arkansas which will move into southeast Missouri.  Rain
chances will increase areawide this evening as aforementioned trough
moves across Missouri and Illinois.  Chances will continue through
the night as a 50kt low level jet sets up over the region which will
provide more low level moisture convergence.  At this time it still
appears that precipitation from this event will be mostly liquid as
dewpoints are steadily rising as rain moves into the area.  Both the
HRRR and RUC are showing that the surface wet-bulb temperatures will
be at or above freezing during the onset of precipitation through
early this evening with temperatures continuing to rise through the
late evening hours.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

At least scattered light showers can be expected Saturday and
Saturday night due to low-mid level warm air advection and as a
southwesterly low level jet continues to bring low level moisture
into the area.  The best chance of rain along with the highest
rainfall amounts should occur on Sunday as a southern stream
negatively tilted shortwave moves through the southern Plains and
into the TN Valley region, while an upper level low moves
southeastward into the northern Plains.  There will be upper level
divergence over our area between an upper level jet streak across
the southern Plains and another upper level jet streak across the
Great Lakes region.  A surface low will develop and deepen as it
moves northeastward through the St Louis area around 00z Monday.
There should be at least isolated thunderstorms across portion sof
central and southeast MO and southwest IL.  Temperatures will be
much warmer this weekend and above normal for a change.  Much of the
precipitation should shift east of our forecast area Sunday night as
colder and drier air filters southeastward into the region behind
the surface low and trailing cold front.  There may be some
lingering precipitation Sunday night into Monday morning as
shortwaves move through the area south of the upper level low which
will progress slowly eastward into the Great Lakes region.  The rain
may change over to some light snow across northeast MO and west
central IL late Sunday night and Monday as colder air continues to
advect into the region.  Temperatures will return to below normal
values beginning Monday with both the GFS and ECMWF models dropping
the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm down to STL by 18z Monday.  Below
normal temperatures are expected from Monday through Thanksgiving
with little if any precipitation as a deep upper level trough moves
slowly eastward through the central US.  The ECMWF model does drop a
northwest flow, clipper type shortwave and associated weak surface
low southeastward through our area which could bring the potential
for a brief period of snow on Wednesday, but the GFS is much weaker
with this feature and only has very light QPF.  A strong surface
ridge will build southeastward into MO for Wednesday night and
Thanksgiving Day with unseasonably cold temperatures expected.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

MVFR conditions are expected to prevail overnight and for most of
tomorrow. Some improvement is possible at KCOU between 22/21z and
23/06z before conditions deteriorate again. Light drizzle is
possible overnight. Widespread rain is likely just beyond the end
of the 24-hr TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL: Although conditions may occasionally lift to
VFR for brief periods overnight, MVFR cigs are expected to prevail
until mid to late morning. Light drizzle is also possible.
Widespread rain is likely towards the end of the 30-hr TAF period
and beyond.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 220610
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1210 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1008 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Weak lift and mid level moisture associated with a low-amplitude shortwave
currently located in western MO combined with lift via a southwesterly
LLJ has generated some showers this evening. These showers were
currenly located to the west of the MS river across southwest and
south central IL, moving to the northeast at 30-35 kts. The showers
should exit the CWA by midnight as the shortwave continues to
migrate eastward in the west-southwest flow aloft, also taking the
mid level moisture with it. In its wake during the overnight
hours, the atmosphere will be bottom heavy with moisture confined
to the low levels. This moisture stratification along with continued
weak ascent via low level WAA would support patchy light rain or
drizzle. Accordingly I have lowered pops a bit and refined the
precipitation mode.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Will continue the chance of light rain as low level moisture
convergence and large scale ascent increases ahead of shortwave
trough currently moving towards us across the central Plains.  There
are two small areas of rain that have developed ahead of this
system...one over west central Missouri which will move into central
and northeast Missouri later this afternoon and a second over
northern Arkansas which will move into southeast Missouri.  Rain
chances will increase areawide this evening as aforementioned trough
moves across Missouri and Illinois.  Chances will continue through
the night as a 50kt low level jet sets up over the region which will
provide more low level moisture convergence.  At this time it still
appears that precipitation from this event will be mostly liquid as
dewpoints are steadily rising as rain moves into the area.  Both the
HRRR and RUC are showing that the surface wet-bulb temperatures will
be at or above freezing during the onset of precipitation through
early this evening with temperatures continuing to rise through the
late evening hours.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

At least scattered light showers can be expected Saturday and
Saturday night due to low-mid level warm air advection and as a
southwesterly low level jet continues to bring low level moisture
into the area.  The best chance of rain along with the highest
rainfall amounts should occur on Sunday as a southern stream
negatively tilted shortwave moves through the southern Plains and
into the TN Valley region, while an upper level low moves
southeastward into the northern Plains.  There will be upper level
divergence over our area between an upper level jet streak across
the southern Plains and another upper level jet streak across the
Great Lakes region.  A surface low will develop and deepen as it
moves northeastward through the St Louis area around 00z Monday.
There should be at least isolated thunderstorms across portion sof
central and southeast MO and southwest IL.  Temperatures will be
much warmer this weekend and above normal for a change.  Much of the
precipitation should shift east of our forecast area Sunday night as
colder and drier air filters southeastward into the region behind
the surface low and trailing cold front.  There may be some
lingering precipitation Sunday night into Monday morning as
shortwaves move through the area south of the upper level low which
will progress slowly eastward into the Great Lakes region.  The rain
may change over to some light snow across northeast MO and west
central IL late Sunday night and Monday as colder air continues to
advect into the region.  Temperatures will return to below normal
values beginning Monday with both the GFS and ECMWF models dropping
the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm down to STL by 18z Monday.  Below
normal temperatures are expected from Monday through Thanksgiving
with little if any precipitation as a deep upper level trough moves
slowly eastward through the central US.  The ECMWF model does drop a
northwest flow, clipper type shortwave and associated weak surface
low southeastward through our area which could bring the potential
for a brief period of snow on Wednesday, but the GFS is much weaker
with this feature and only has very light QPF.  A strong surface
ridge will build southeastward into MO for Wednesday night and
Thanksgiving Day with unseasonably cold temperatures expected.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

MVFR conditions are expected to prevail overnight and for most of
tomorrow. Some improvement is possible at KCOU between 22/21z and
23/06z before conditions deteriorate again. Light drizzle is
possible overnight. Widespread rain is likely just beyond the end
of the 24-hr TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL: Although conditions may occasionally lift to
VFR for brief periods overnight, MVFR cigs are expected to prevail
until mid to late morning. Light drizzle is also possible.
Widespread rain is likely towards the end of the 30-hr TAF period
and beyond.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 220610
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1210 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1008 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Weak lift and mid level moisture associated with a low-amplitude shortwave
currently located in western MO combined with lift via a southwesterly
LLJ has generated some showers this evening. These showers were
currenly located to the west of the MS river across southwest and
south central IL, moving to the northeast at 30-35 kts. The showers
should exit the CWA by midnight as the shortwave continues to
migrate eastward in the west-southwest flow aloft, also taking the
mid level moisture with it. In its wake during the overnight
hours, the atmosphere will be bottom heavy with moisture confined
to the low levels. This moisture stratification along with continued
weak ascent via low level WAA would support patchy light rain or
drizzle. Accordingly I have lowered pops a bit and refined the
precipitation mode.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Will continue the chance of light rain as low level moisture
convergence and large scale ascent increases ahead of shortwave
trough currently moving towards us across the central Plains.  There
are two small areas of rain that have developed ahead of this
system...one over west central Missouri which will move into central
and northeast Missouri later this afternoon and a second over
northern Arkansas which will move into southeast Missouri.  Rain
chances will increase areawide this evening as aforementioned trough
moves across Missouri and Illinois.  Chances will continue through
the night as a 50kt low level jet sets up over the region which will
provide more low level moisture convergence.  At this time it still
appears that precipitation from this event will be mostly liquid as
dewpoints are steadily rising as rain moves into the area.  Both the
HRRR and RUC are showing that the surface wet-bulb temperatures will
be at or above freezing during the onset of precipitation through
early this evening with temperatures continuing to rise through the
late evening hours.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

At least scattered light showers can be expected Saturday and
Saturday night due to low-mid level warm air advection and as a
southwesterly low level jet continues to bring low level moisture
into the area.  The best chance of rain along with the highest
rainfall amounts should occur on Sunday as a southern stream
negatively tilted shortwave moves through the southern Plains and
into the TN Valley region, while an upper level low moves
southeastward into the northern Plains.  There will be upper level
divergence over our area between an upper level jet streak across
the southern Plains and another upper level jet streak across the
Great Lakes region.  A surface low will develop and deepen as it
moves northeastward through the St Louis area around 00z Monday.
There should be at least isolated thunderstorms across portion sof
central and southeast MO and southwest IL.  Temperatures will be
much warmer this weekend and above normal for a change.  Much of the
precipitation should shift east of our forecast area Sunday night as
colder and drier air filters southeastward into the region behind
the surface low and trailing cold front.  There may be some
lingering precipitation Sunday night into Monday morning as
shortwaves move through the area south of the upper level low which
will progress slowly eastward into the Great Lakes region.  The rain
may change over to some light snow across northeast MO and west
central IL late Sunday night and Monday as colder air continues to
advect into the region.  Temperatures will return to below normal
values beginning Monday with both the GFS and ECMWF models dropping
the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm down to STL by 18z Monday.  Below
normal temperatures are expected from Monday through Thanksgiving
with little if any precipitation as a deep upper level trough moves
slowly eastward through the central US.  The ECMWF model does drop a
northwest flow, clipper type shortwave and associated weak surface
low southeastward through our area which could bring the potential
for a brief period of snow on Wednesday, but the GFS is much weaker
with this feature and only has very light QPF.  A strong surface
ridge will build southeastward into MO for Wednesday night and
Thanksgiving Day with unseasonably cold temperatures expected.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

MVFR conditions are expected to prevail overnight and for most of
tomorrow. Some improvement is possible at KCOU between 22/21z and
23/06z before conditions deteriorate again. Light drizzle is
possible overnight. Widespread rain is likely just beyond the end
of the 24-hr TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL: Although conditions may occasionally lift to
VFR for brief periods overnight, MVFR cigs are expected to prevail
until mid to late morning. Light drizzle is also possible.
Widespread rain is likely towards the end of the 30-hr TAF period
and beyond.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 220531
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1131 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Trimmed back overnight PoPs as deeper moisture as noted in IR
satellite imagery and radar returns is peeling off to the northeast.
00z NAM and RUC h7 condensation pressure deficit progs support this
as does the miniscuel reflectivity returns on the HRRR. Bufr
soundings are more supportive of drizzle forming overnight. Will
stratify PoPs with best chances for rain over the southeast 1/3 of
the CWA. Deeper moisture doesn`t arrive from teh southwest until
later Saturday afternoon so until then think low chance PoPs the best
one can do.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Main concern in the short term will be fog, stratus, and light
showers as a broad area of warm air advection continues across the
region. Without a strong focus for lift, any precipitation tonight
into Saturday should be fairly light throughout the region. Dense
fog looks likely mainly across eastern Kansas and northwest MO where
moisture will remain fairly shallow; farther to the southeast, low
stratus and continued isolated showers seem more likely. May need a
dense fog advisory in far western and northwestern portions of the
CWA tonight, but will wait to see how efficiently fog develops later
this evening. Another round of dense fog looks possible on Saturday
night across far northern MO and especially further to the north in
IA, with continued stratus to the south.

Rain will become more widespread for Sunday as a shortwave trough
lifts out of the southern Plains and into eastern MO, and a surface
low tightens up over central portions of the state. Rain is most
likely and potential precipitation totals are highest across far
eastern portions of the CWA, but at least some rainfall is likely as
far west as the KC metro during the daylight hours. Timing for the
exit of this system is still a little uncertain, but rain should be
tapering off by late Sunday evening into the early morning hours
Monday. A second system is still also expected to sweep in from the
northern Plains on Sunday, bringing colder air into northern MO by
late Sunday and into the remainder of the state on Monday. Rain may
briefly mix with or change over to snow in northern MO late Sunday
night or early Monday as the first system departs and cold air
surges in, but warm/wet ground and depleted moisture will prevent
any snow accumulation.

Colder temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday as the second
system continues to dive southeast and allows Canadian air to filter
into the central CONUS; then some brief warming is possible
Wednesday as that system departs. The latest 2 runs of both the EC
and GFS have finally come into much better alignment for Thursday
and Friday, indicating a rather cold but dry Thanksgiving, but a
quick warm up for Friday beyond the end of the period. Have removed
all PoPs beyond the weekend system, leaving the long-range forecast
period dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Surface conditions beginning to degrade as moisture from the south
continues to work its way north. Will see the onset of fog
development during the overnight hours initiating IFR ceilings with
a period of LIFR ceiling heights shortly thereafter. Not much anticipated
in the way of precipitation other than light drizzle coupled with the
fog. IFR ceilings expected to persist throughout the morning while
increased chances of precipitation will commence in the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 220531
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1131 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Trimmed back overnight PoPs as deeper moisture as noted in IR
satellite imagery and radar returns is peeling off to the northeast.
00z NAM and RUC h7 condensation pressure deficit progs support this
as does the miniscuel reflectivity returns on the HRRR. Bufr
soundings are more supportive of drizzle forming overnight. Will
stratify PoPs with best chances for rain over the southeast 1/3 of
the CWA. Deeper moisture doesn`t arrive from teh southwest until
later Saturday afternoon so until then think low chance PoPs the best
one can do.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Main concern in the short term will be fog, stratus, and light
showers as a broad area of warm air advection continues across the
region. Without a strong focus for lift, any precipitation tonight
into Saturday should be fairly light throughout the region. Dense
fog looks likely mainly across eastern Kansas and northwest MO where
moisture will remain fairly shallow; farther to the southeast, low
stratus and continued isolated showers seem more likely. May need a
dense fog advisory in far western and northwestern portions of the
CWA tonight, but will wait to see how efficiently fog develops later
this evening. Another round of dense fog looks possible on Saturday
night across far northern MO and especially further to the north in
IA, with continued stratus to the south.

Rain will become more widespread for Sunday as a shortwave trough
lifts out of the southern Plains and into eastern MO, and a surface
low tightens up over central portions of the state. Rain is most
likely and potential precipitation totals are highest across far
eastern portions of the CWA, but at least some rainfall is likely as
far west as the KC metro during the daylight hours. Timing for the
exit of this system is still a little uncertain, but rain should be
tapering off by late Sunday evening into the early morning hours
Monday. A second system is still also expected to sweep in from the
northern Plains on Sunday, bringing colder air into northern MO by
late Sunday and into the remainder of the state on Monday. Rain may
briefly mix with or change over to snow in northern MO late Sunday
night or early Monday as the first system departs and cold air
surges in, but warm/wet ground and depleted moisture will prevent
any snow accumulation.

Colder temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday as the second
system continues to dive southeast and allows Canadian air to filter
into the central CONUS; then some brief warming is possible
Wednesday as that system departs. The latest 2 runs of both the EC
and GFS have finally come into much better alignment for Thursday
and Friday, indicating a rather cold but dry Thanksgiving, but a
quick warm up for Friday beyond the end of the period. Have removed
all PoPs beyond the weekend system, leaving the long-range forecast
period dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Surface conditions beginning to degrade as moisture from the south
continues to work its way north. Will see the onset of fog
development during the overnight hours initiating IFR ceilings with
a period of LIFR ceiling heights shortly thereafter. Not much anticipated
in the way of precipitation other than light drizzle coupled with the
fog. IFR ceilings expected to persist throughout the morning while
increased chances of precipitation will commence in the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 220531
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1131 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Trimmed back overnight PoPs as deeper moisture as noted in IR
satellite imagery and radar returns is peeling off to the northeast.
00z NAM and RUC h7 condensation pressure deficit progs support this
as does the miniscuel reflectivity returns on the HRRR. Bufr
soundings are more supportive of drizzle forming overnight. Will
stratify PoPs with best chances for rain over the southeast 1/3 of
the CWA. Deeper moisture doesn`t arrive from teh southwest until
later Saturday afternoon so until then think low chance PoPs the best
one can do.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Main concern in the short term will be fog, stratus, and light
showers as a broad area of warm air advection continues across the
region. Without a strong focus for lift, any precipitation tonight
into Saturday should be fairly light throughout the region. Dense
fog looks likely mainly across eastern Kansas and northwest MO where
moisture will remain fairly shallow; farther to the southeast, low
stratus and continued isolated showers seem more likely. May need a
dense fog advisory in far western and northwestern portions of the
CWA tonight, but will wait to see how efficiently fog develops later
this evening. Another round of dense fog looks possible on Saturday
night across far northern MO and especially further to the north in
IA, with continued stratus to the south.

Rain will become more widespread for Sunday as a shortwave trough
lifts out of the southern Plains and into eastern MO, and a surface
low tightens up over central portions of the state. Rain is most
likely and potential precipitation totals are highest across far
eastern portions of the CWA, but at least some rainfall is likely as
far west as the KC metro during the daylight hours. Timing for the
exit of this system is still a little uncertain, but rain should be
tapering off by late Sunday evening into the early morning hours
Monday. A second system is still also expected to sweep in from the
northern Plains on Sunday, bringing colder air into northern MO by
late Sunday and into the remainder of the state on Monday. Rain may
briefly mix with or change over to snow in northern MO late Sunday
night or early Monday as the first system departs and cold air
surges in, but warm/wet ground and depleted moisture will prevent
any snow accumulation.

Colder temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday as the second
system continues to dive southeast and allows Canadian air to filter
into the central CONUS; then some brief warming is possible
Wednesday as that system departs. The latest 2 runs of both the EC
and GFS have finally come into much better alignment for Thursday
and Friday, indicating a rather cold but dry Thanksgiving, but a
quick warm up for Friday beyond the end of the period. Have removed
all PoPs beyond the weekend system, leaving the long-range forecast
period dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Surface conditions beginning to degrade as moisture from the south
continues to work its way north. Will see the onset of fog
development during the overnight hours initiating IFR ceilings with
a period of LIFR ceiling heights shortly thereafter. Not much anticipated
in the way of precipitation other than light drizzle coupled with the
fog. IFR ceilings expected to persist throughout the morning while
increased chances of precipitation will commence in the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 220531
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1131 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Trimmed back overnight PoPs as deeper moisture as noted in IR
satellite imagery and radar returns is peeling off to the northeast.
00z NAM and RUC h7 condensation pressure deficit progs support this
as does the miniscuel reflectivity returns on the HRRR. Bufr
soundings are more supportive of drizzle forming overnight. Will
stratify PoPs with best chances for rain over the southeast 1/3 of
the CWA. Deeper moisture doesn`t arrive from teh southwest until
later Saturday afternoon so until then think low chance PoPs the best
one can do.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Main concern in the short term will be fog, stratus, and light
showers as a broad area of warm air advection continues across the
region. Without a strong focus for lift, any precipitation tonight
into Saturday should be fairly light throughout the region. Dense
fog looks likely mainly across eastern Kansas and northwest MO where
moisture will remain fairly shallow; farther to the southeast, low
stratus and continued isolated showers seem more likely. May need a
dense fog advisory in far western and northwestern portions of the
CWA tonight, but will wait to see how efficiently fog develops later
this evening. Another round of dense fog looks possible on Saturday
night across far northern MO and especially further to the north in
IA, with continued stratus to the south.

Rain will become more widespread for Sunday as a shortwave trough
lifts out of the southern Plains and into eastern MO, and a surface
low tightens up over central portions of the state. Rain is most
likely and potential precipitation totals are highest across far
eastern portions of the CWA, but at least some rainfall is likely as
far west as the KC metro during the daylight hours. Timing for the
exit of this system is still a little uncertain, but rain should be
tapering off by late Sunday evening into the early morning hours
Monday. A second system is still also expected to sweep in from the
northern Plains on Sunday, bringing colder air into northern MO by
late Sunday and into the remainder of the state on Monday. Rain may
briefly mix with or change over to snow in northern MO late Sunday
night or early Monday as the first system departs and cold air
surges in, but warm/wet ground and depleted moisture will prevent
any snow accumulation.

Colder temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday as the second
system continues to dive southeast and allows Canadian air to filter
into the central CONUS; then some brief warming is possible
Wednesday as that system departs. The latest 2 runs of both the EC
and GFS have finally come into much better alignment for Thursday
and Friday, indicating a rather cold but dry Thanksgiving, but a
quick warm up for Friday beyond the end of the period. Have removed
all PoPs beyond the weekend system, leaving the long-range forecast
period dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Surface conditions beginning to degrade as moisture from the south
continues to work its way north. Will see the onset of fog
development during the overnight hours initiating IFR ceilings with
a period of LIFR ceiling heights shortly thereafter. Not much anticipated
in the way of precipitation other than light drizzle coupled with the
fog. IFR ceilings expected to persist throughout the morning while
increased chances of precipitation will commence in the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KLSX 220413
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1013 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1008 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Weak lift and mid level moisture associated with a low-amplitude shortwave
currently located in western MO combined with lift via a southwesterly
LLJ has generated some showers this evening. These showers were
currenly located to the west of the MS river across southwest and
south central IL, moving to the northeast at 30-35 kts. The showers
should exit the CWA by midnight as the shortwave continues to
migrate eastward in the west-southwest flow aloft, also taking the
mid level moisture with it. In its wake during the overnight
hours, the atmosphere will be bottom heavy with moisture confined
to the low levels. This moisture stratification along with continued
weak ascent via low level WAA would support patchy light rain or
drizzle. Accordingly I have lowered pops a bit and refined the
precipitation mode.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Will continue the chance of light rain as low level moisture
convergence and large scale ascent increases ahead of shortwave
trough currently moving towards us across the central Plains.  There
are two small areas of rain that have developed ahead of this
system...one over west central Missouri which will move into central
and northeast Missouri later this afternoon and a second over
northern Arkansas which will move into southeast Missouri.  Rain
chances will increase areawide this evening as aforementioned trough
moves across Missouri and Illinois.  Chances will continue through
the night as a 50kt low level jet sets up over the region which will
provide more low level moisture convergence.  At this time it still
appears that precipitation from this event will be mostly liquid as
dewpoints are steadily rising as rain moves into the area.  Both the
HRRR and RUC are showing that the surface wet-bulb temperatures will
be at or above freezing during the onset of precipitation through
early this evening with temperatures continuing to rise through the
late evening hours.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

At least scattered light showers can be expected Saturday and
Saturday night due to low-mid level warm air advection and as a
southwesterly low level jet continues to bring low level moisture
into the area.  The best chance of rain along with the highest
rainfall amounts should occur on Sunday as a southern stream
negatively tilted shortwave moves through the southern Plains and
into the TN Valley region, while an upper level low moves
southeastward into the northern Plains.  There will be upper level
divergence over our area between an upper level jet streak across
the southern Plains and another upper level jet streak across the
Great Lakes region.  A surface low will develop and deepen as it
moves northeastward through the St Louis area around 00z Monday.
There should be at least isolated thunderstorms across portion sof
central and southeast MO and southwest IL.  Temperatures will be
much warmer this weekend and above normal for a change.  Much of the
precipitation should shift east of our forecast area Sunday night as
colder and drier air filters southeastward into the region behind
the surface low and trailing cold front.  There may be some
lingering precipitation Sunday night into Monday morning as
shortwaves move through the area south of the upper level low which
will progress slowly eastward into the Great Lakes region.  The rain
may change over to some light snow across northeast MO and west
central IL late Sunday night and Monday as colder air continues to
advect into the region.  Temperatures will return to below normal
values beginning Monday with both the GFS and ECMWF models dropping
the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm down to STL by 18z Monday.  Below
normal temperatures are expected from Monday through Thanksgiving
with little if any precipitation as a deep upper level trough moves
slowly eastward through the central US.  The ECMWF model does drop a
northwest flow, clipper type shortwave and associated weak surface
low southeastward through our area which could bring the potential
for a brief period of snow on Wednesday, but the GFS is much weaker
with this feature and only has very light QPF.  A strong surface
ridge will build southeastward into MO for Wednesday night and
Thanksgiving Day with unseasonably cold temperatures expected.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 522 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

MVFR cigs are expected to prevail overnight, however there may be
occasional brief periods of low-end VFR ceilings. Widely scattered
rain showers are possible through the period, especially at KCOU and
KUIN. A 50kt southwesterly LLJ will likely produce LLWS conditions
at all terminals between 05-14z.

Specifics for KSTL: MVFR cigs are expected to prevail overnight,
however there may be occasional brief periods of low-end VFR
ceilings. Widely scattered rain showers are possible through the
period. The highest rain chances at KSTL are expected beyond the
end of the 30-hr TAF period. A 50kt southwesterly low level jet
will likely produce LLWS conditions between 05-14z.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 220413
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1013 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1008 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Weak lift and mid level moisture associated with a low-amplitude shortwave
currently located in western MO combined with lift via a southwesterly
LLJ has generated some showers this evening. These showers were
currenly located to the west of the MS river across southwest and
south central IL, moving to the northeast at 30-35 kts. The showers
should exit the CWA by midnight as the shortwave continues to
migrate eastward in the west-southwest flow aloft, also taking the
mid level moisture with it. In its wake during the overnight
hours, the atmosphere will be bottom heavy with moisture confined
to the low levels. This moisture stratification along with continued
weak ascent via low level WAA would support patchy light rain or
drizzle. Accordingly I have lowered pops a bit and refined the
precipitation mode.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Will continue the chance of light rain as low level moisture
convergence and large scale ascent increases ahead of shortwave
trough currently moving towards us across the central Plains.  There
are two small areas of rain that have developed ahead of this
system...one over west central Missouri which will move into central
and northeast Missouri later this afternoon and a second over
northern Arkansas which will move into southeast Missouri.  Rain
chances will increase areawide this evening as aforementioned trough
moves across Missouri and Illinois.  Chances will continue through
the night as a 50kt low level jet sets up over the region which will
provide more low level moisture convergence.  At this time it still
appears that precipitation from this event will be mostly liquid as
dewpoints are steadily rising as rain moves into the area.  Both the
HRRR and RUC are showing that the surface wet-bulb temperatures will
be at or above freezing during the onset of precipitation through
early this evening with temperatures continuing to rise through the
late evening hours.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

At least scattered light showers can be expected Saturday and
Saturday night due to low-mid level warm air advection and as a
southwesterly low level jet continues to bring low level moisture
into the area.  The best chance of rain along with the highest
rainfall amounts should occur on Sunday as a southern stream
negatively tilted shortwave moves through the southern Plains and
into the TN Valley region, while an upper level low moves
southeastward into the northern Plains.  There will be upper level
divergence over our area between an upper level jet streak across
the southern Plains and another upper level jet streak across the
Great Lakes region.  A surface low will develop and deepen as it
moves northeastward through the St Louis area around 00z Monday.
There should be at least isolated thunderstorms across portion sof
central and southeast MO and southwest IL.  Temperatures will be
much warmer this weekend and above normal for a change.  Much of the
precipitation should shift east of our forecast area Sunday night as
colder and drier air filters southeastward into the region behind
the surface low and trailing cold front.  There may be some
lingering precipitation Sunday night into Monday morning as
shortwaves move through the area south of the upper level low which
will progress slowly eastward into the Great Lakes region.  The rain
may change over to some light snow across northeast MO and west
central IL late Sunday night and Monday as colder air continues to
advect into the region.  Temperatures will return to below normal
values beginning Monday with both the GFS and ECMWF models dropping
the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm down to STL by 18z Monday.  Below
normal temperatures are expected from Monday through Thanksgiving
with little if any precipitation as a deep upper level trough moves
slowly eastward through the central US.  The ECMWF model does drop a
northwest flow, clipper type shortwave and associated weak surface
low southeastward through our area which could bring the potential
for a brief period of snow on Wednesday, but the GFS is much weaker
with this feature and only has very light QPF.  A strong surface
ridge will build southeastward into MO for Wednesday night and
Thanksgiving Day with unseasonably cold temperatures expected.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 522 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

MVFR cigs are expected to prevail overnight, however there may be
occasional brief periods of low-end VFR ceilings. Widely scattered
rain showers are possible through the period, especially at KCOU and
KUIN. A 50kt southwesterly LLJ will likely produce LLWS conditions
at all terminals between 05-14z.

Specifics for KSTL: MVFR cigs are expected to prevail overnight,
however there may be occasional brief periods of low-end VFR
ceilings. Widely scattered rain showers are possible through the
period. The highest rain chances at KSTL are expected beyond the
end of the 30-hr TAF period. A 50kt southwesterly low level jet
will likely produce LLWS conditions between 05-14z.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 220413
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1013 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1008 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Weak lift and mid level moisture associated with a low-amplitude shortwave
currently located in western MO combined with lift via a southwesterly
LLJ has generated some showers this evening. These showers were
currenly located to the west of the MS river across southwest and
south central IL, moving to the northeast at 30-35 kts. The showers
should exit the CWA by midnight as the shortwave continues to
migrate eastward in the west-southwest flow aloft, also taking the
mid level moisture with it. In its wake during the overnight
hours, the atmosphere will be bottom heavy with moisture confined
to the low levels. This moisture stratification along with continued
weak ascent via low level WAA would support patchy light rain or
drizzle. Accordingly I have lowered pops a bit and refined the
precipitation mode.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Will continue the chance of light rain as low level moisture
convergence and large scale ascent increases ahead of shortwave
trough currently moving towards us across the central Plains.  There
are two small areas of rain that have developed ahead of this
system...one over west central Missouri which will move into central
and northeast Missouri later this afternoon and a second over
northern Arkansas which will move into southeast Missouri.  Rain
chances will increase areawide this evening as aforementioned trough
moves across Missouri and Illinois.  Chances will continue through
the night as a 50kt low level jet sets up over the region which will
provide more low level moisture convergence.  At this time it still
appears that precipitation from this event will be mostly liquid as
dewpoints are steadily rising as rain moves into the area.  Both the
HRRR and RUC are showing that the surface wet-bulb temperatures will
be at or above freezing during the onset of precipitation through
early this evening with temperatures continuing to rise through the
late evening hours.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

At least scattered light showers can be expected Saturday and
Saturday night due to low-mid level warm air advection and as a
southwesterly low level jet continues to bring low level moisture
into the area.  The best chance of rain along with the highest
rainfall amounts should occur on Sunday as a southern stream
negatively tilted shortwave moves through the southern Plains and
into the TN Valley region, while an upper level low moves
southeastward into the northern Plains.  There will be upper level
divergence over our area between an upper level jet streak across
the southern Plains and another upper level jet streak across the
Great Lakes region.  A surface low will develop and deepen as it
moves northeastward through the St Louis area around 00z Monday.
There should be at least isolated thunderstorms across portion sof
central and southeast MO and southwest IL.  Temperatures will be
much warmer this weekend and above normal for a change.  Much of the
precipitation should shift east of our forecast area Sunday night as
colder and drier air filters southeastward into the region behind
the surface low and trailing cold front.  There may be some
lingering precipitation Sunday night into Monday morning as
shortwaves move through the area south of the upper level low which
will progress slowly eastward into the Great Lakes region.  The rain
may change over to some light snow across northeast MO and west
central IL late Sunday night and Monday as colder air continues to
advect into the region.  Temperatures will return to below normal
values beginning Monday with both the GFS and ECMWF models dropping
the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm down to STL by 18z Monday.  Below
normal temperatures are expected from Monday through Thanksgiving
with little if any precipitation as a deep upper level trough moves
slowly eastward through the central US.  The ECMWF model does drop a
northwest flow, clipper type shortwave and associated weak surface
low southeastward through our area which could bring the potential
for a brief period of snow on Wednesday, but the GFS is much weaker
with this feature and only has very light QPF.  A strong surface
ridge will build southeastward into MO for Wednesday night and
Thanksgiving Day with unseasonably cold temperatures expected.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 522 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

MVFR cigs are expected to prevail overnight, however there may be
occasional brief periods of low-end VFR ceilings. Widely scattered
rain showers are possible through the period, especially at KCOU and
KUIN. A 50kt southwesterly LLJ will likely produce LLWS conditions
at all terminals between 05-14z.

Specifics for KSTL: MVFR cigs are expected to prevail overnight,
however there may be occasional brief periods of low-end VFR
ceilings. Widely scattered rain showers are possible through the
period. The highest rain chances at KSTL are expected beyond the
end of the 30-hr TAF period. A 50kt southwesterly low level jet
will likely produce LLWS conditions between 05-14z.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 220413
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1013 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1008 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Weak lift and mid level moisture associated with a low-amplitude shortwave
currently located in western MO combined with lift via a southwesterly
LLJ has generated some showers this evening. These showers were
currenly located to the west of the MS river across southwest and
south central IL, moving to the northeast at 30-35 kts. The showers
should exit the CWA by midnight as the shortwave continues to
migrate eastward in the west-southwest flow aloft, also taking the
mid level moisture with it. In its wake during the overnight
hours, the atmosphere will be bottom heavy with moisture confined
to the low levels. This moisture stratification along with continued
weak ascent via low level WAA would support patchy light rain or
drizzle. Accordingly I have lowered pops a bit and refined the
precipitation mode.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Will continue the chance of light rain as low level moisture
convergence and large scale ascent increases ahead of shortwave
trough currently moving towards us across the central Plains.  There
are two small areas of rain that have developed ahead of this
system...one over west central Missouri which will move into central
and northeast Missouri later this afternoon and a second over
northern Arkansas which will move into southeast Missouri.  Rain
chances will increase areawide this evening as aforementioned trough
moves across Missouri and Illinois.  Chances will continue through
the night as a 50kt low level jet sets up over the region which will
provide more low level moisture convergence.  At this time it still
appears that precipitation from this event will be mostly liquid as
dewpoints are steadily rising as rain moves into the area.  Both the
HRRR and RUC are showing that the surface wet-bulb temperatures will
be at or above freezing during the onset of precipitation through
early this evening with temperatures continuing to rise through the
late evening hours.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

At least scattered light showers can be expected Saturday and
Saturday night due to low-mid level warm air advection and as a
southwesterly low level jet continues to bring low level moisture
into the area.  The best chance of rain along with the highest
rainfall amounts should occur on Sunday as a southern stream
negatively tilted shortwave moves through the southern Plains and
into the TN Valley region, while an upper level low moves
southeastward into the northern Plains.  There will be upper level
divergence over our area between an upper level jet streak across
the southern Plains and another upper level jet streak across the
Great Lakes region.  A surface low will develop and deepen as it
moves northeastward through the St Louis area around 00z Monday.
There should be at least isolated thunderstorms across portion sof
central and southeast MO and southwest IL.  Temperatures will be
much warmer this weekend and above normal for a change.  Much of the
precipitation should shift east of our forecast area Sunday night as
colder and drier air filters southeastward into the region behind
the surface low and trailing cold front.  There may be some
lingering precipitation Sunday night into Monday morning as
shortwaves move through the area south of the upper level low which
will progress slowly eastward into the Great Lakes region.  The rain
may change over to some light snow across northeast MO and west
central IL late Sunday night and Monday as colder air continues to
advect into the region.  Temperatures will return to below normal
values beginning Monday with both the GFS and ECMWF models dropping
the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm down to STL by 18z Monday.  Below
normal temperatures are expected from Monday through Thanksgiving
with little if any precipitation as a deep upper level trough moves
slowly eastward through the central US.  The ECMWF model does drop a
northwest flow, clipper type shortwave and associated weak surface
low southeastward through our area which could bring the potential
for a brief period of snow on Wednesday, but the GFS is much weaker
with this feature and only has very light QPF.  A strong surface
ridge will build southeastward into MO for Wednesday night and
Thanksgiving Day with unseasonably cold temperatures expected.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 522 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

MVFR cigs are expected to prevail overnight, however there may be
occasional brief periods of low-end VFR ceilings. Widely scattered
rain showers are possible through the period, especially at KCOU and
KUIN. A 50kt southwesterly LLJ will likely produce LLWS conditions
at all terminals between 05-14z.

Specifics for KSTL: MVFR cigs are expected to prevail overnight,
however there may be occasional brief periods of low-end VFR
ceilings. Widely scattered rain showers are possible through the
period. The highest rain chances at KSTL are expected beyond the
end of the 30-hr TAF period. A 50kt southwesterly low level jet
will likely produce LLWS conditions between 05-14z.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 220348
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
948 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

We have made a few tweaks to the overnight and early Saturday
morning forecast. First off, patchy fog was inserted across south-
central Missouri as the setup has become favorable for advection
fog north of a warm front which was located near I-40. We may also
see some terrain effects come into play in the form of upslope and
stratus build-down. Thus, we have generally kept the fog mention
along and south of the Ozark Plateau spine.

We have also trimmed back PoPs overnight over most areas. While we
will continue to see patchy drizzle, shower activity will be
isolated to widely scattered in nature over most areas. The one
exception may be later tonight from southeastern Kansas into west-
central Missouri where slightly better lift and instability will
exist. We have kept PoPs around 40% in this area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Cloudy, cool conditions have been observed across the region thus
far today. As expected, rain and drizzle has been spotty, with one
batch exiting into central, MO and another entering southern and
south central MO. Temperatures do range quite a bit across the
area with near 60 degrees at Joplin and around 40 at West Plains.
Temperatures will oscillate a bit this evening, with steady/slowly
rising temperatures expected once again tonight as continued,
strong low level warm air advection continues.

As has been discussed over the past few days, we continue to
battle pockets of lift and an overall dry atmosphere. Moisture
return has been mainly confined to the low level jet level, good
enough to produce widespread stratus, but not so good at producing
widespread rain to this point. The story remains the same tonight
into Saturday as the main upper level system will be just a bit
slower to enter the region than previously anticipated. As a
result, the best chances for widespread, soaking rains will be
Saturday night and Sunday. Models continue to spit out low values
of most unstable CAPE, so will continue the slight chance mention
for thunder tonight through Sunday. Overall, expected rainfall
amounts are about the same, one to one and a half inches, with the
highest amounts over the eastern half of the area. Can`t
completely rule out a few wet snowflakes Sunday night as the
system exits, but not expecting any impacts.

Temperature wise, mild readings will persist through the weekend, a
very welcome change from the past 10 or so days. The cold front
will move into the region later Sunday into Sunday night, however,
ending our brief stretch of mild (normal) November temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A deep trough will develop over the central U.S. early next week
with below average temperatures returning to the area. Scattered
showers will end over the eastern Ozarks early Monday morning.
Monday will be a breezy and colder day. Clouds will try to clear
from southwest to northeast but the Lake of the Ozarks region will
likely hold on to the clouds all day.

Another shortwave will move across the region on Wednesday which
will bring clouds with the system but overall it will be moisture
starved. A cold will move through on Wednesday and bring another
reinforcing shot of cold air for Thursday into Friday. It will be
rather quiet with the weather for travelers on Wednesday. And right
now Thanksgiving looks to be cold and mostly sunny.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 538 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Abundant low level moisture will remain over the region ahead of a
warm front and approaching upper level disturbance. We are
expecting IFR and LIFR conditions to persist around Branson into
at least early Saturday morning...if not longer. Ceilings around
Springfield and Branson are a tougher call as weather models offer
a variety of forecasts. Upstream observations and a recently
released weather balloon indicate that moisture has increased
significantly between 700 and 1500 feet AGL around Springfield.
While downslope flow off the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau
will counteract the potential for IFR, we feel that enough
moisture is present for IFR later this evening at Springfield.
Ceilings at Joplin are expected to remain in the MVFR category for
most of tonight, but may approach IFR at times. MVFR ceilings are
then expected at Springfield and Joplin on Saturday. Scattered
showers will also develop across the region with the approach of
that disturbance. Meanwhile, brisk and gusty southeast winds will
slowly turn around to southerly later tonight and Saturday. Low
level wind shear conditions will also continue into early Saturday
as a low level jet stream remains over the region.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 220348
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
948 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

We have made a few tweaks to the overnight and early Saturday
morning forecast. First off, patchy fog was inserted across south-
central Missouri as the setup has become favorable for advection
fog north of a warm front which was located near I-40. We may also
see some terrain effects come into play in the form of upslope and
stratus build-down. Thus, we have generally kept the fog mention
along and south of the Ozark Plateau spine.

We have also trimmed back PoPs overnight over most areas. While we
will continue to see patchy drizzle, shower activity will be
isolated to widely scattered in nature over most areas. The one
exception may be later tonight from southeastern Kansas into west-
central Missouri where slightly better lift and instability will
exist. We have kept PoPs around 40% in this area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Cloudy, cool conditions have been observed across the region thus
far today. As expected, rain and drizzle has been spotty, with one
batch exiting into central, MO and another entering southern and
south central MO. Temperatures do range quite a bit across the
area with near 60 degrees at Joplin and around 40 at West Plains.
Temperatures will oscillate a bit this evening, with steady/slowly
rising temperatures expected once again tonight as continued,
strong low level warm air advection continues.

As has been discussed over the past few days, we continue to
battle pockets of lift and an overall dry atmosphere. Moisture
return has been mainly confined to the low level jet level, good
enough to produce widespread stratus, but not so good at producing
widespread rain to this point. The story remains the same tonight
into Saturday as the main upper level system will be just a bit
slower to enter the region than previously anticipated. As a
result, the best chances for widespread, soaking rains will be
Saturday night and Sunday. Models continue to spit out low values
of most unstable CAPE, so will continue the slight chance mention
for thunder tonight through Sunday. Overall, expected rainfall
amounts are about the same, one to one and a half inches, with the
highest amounts over the eastern half of the area. Can`t
completely rule out a few wet snowflakes Sunday night as the
system exits, but not expecting any impacts.

Temperature wise, mild readings will persist through the weekend, a
very welcome change from the past 10 or so days. The cold front
will move into the region later Sunday into Sunday night, however,
ending our brief stretch of mild (normal) November temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A deep trough will develop over the central U.S. early next week
with below average temperatures returning to the area. Scattered
showers will end over the eastern Ozarks early Monday morning.
Monday will be a breezy and colder day. Clouds will try to clear
from southwest to northeast but the Lake of the Ozarks region will
likely hold on to the clouds all day.

Another shortwave will move across the region on Wednesday which
will bring clouds with the system but overall it will be moisture
starved. A cold will move through on Wednesday and bring another
reinforcing shot of cold air for Thursday into Friday. It will be
rather quiet with the weather for travelers on Wednesday. And right
now Thanksgiving looks to be cold and mostly sunny.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 538 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Abundant low level moisture will remain over the region ahead of a
warm front and approaching upper level disturbance. We are
expecting IFR and LIFR conditions to persist around Branson into
at least early Saturday morning...if not longer. Ceilings around
Springfield and Branson are a tougher call as weather models offer
a variety of forecasts. Upstream observations and a recently
released weather balloon indicate that moisture has increased
significantly between 700 and 1500 feet AGL around Springfield.
While downslope flow off the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau
will counteract the potential for IFR, we feel that enough
moisture is present for IFR later this evening at Springfield.
Ceilings at Joplin are expected to remain in the MVFR category for
most of tonight, but may approach IFR at times. MVFR ceilings are
then expected at Springfield and Joplin on Saturday. Scattered
showers will also develop across the region with the approach of
that disturbance. Meanwhile, brisk and gusty southeast winds will
slowly turn around to southerly later tonight and Saturday. Low
level wind shear conditions will also continue into early Saturday
as a low level jet stream remains over the region.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 220348
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
948 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

We have made a few tweaks to the overnight and early Saturday
morning forecast. First off, patchy fog was inserted across south-
central Missouri as the setup has become favorable for advection
fog north of a warm front which was located near I-40. We may also
see some terrain effects come into play in the form of upslope and
stratus build-down. Thus, we have generally kept the fog mention
along and south of the Ozark Plateau spine.

We have also trimmed back PoPs overnight over most areas. While we
will continue to see patchy drizzle, shower activity will be
isolated to widely scattered in nature over most areas. The one
exception may be later tonight from southeastern Kansas into west-
central Missouri where slightly better lift and instability will
exist. We have kept PoPs around 40% in this area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Cloudy, cool conditions have been observed across the region thus
far today. As expected, rain and drizzle has been spotty, with one
batch exiting into central, MO and another entering southern and
south central MO. Temperatures do range quite a bit across the
area with near 60 degrees at Joplin and around 40 at West Plains.
Temperatures will oscillate a bit this evening, with steady/slowly
rising temperatures expected once again tonight as continued,
strong low level warm air advection continues.

As has been discussed over the past few days, we continue to
battle pockets of lift and an overall dry atmosphere. Moisture
return has been mainly confined to the low level jet level, good
enough to produce widespread stratus, but not so good at producing
widespread rain to this point. The story remains the same tonight
into Saturday as the main upper level system will be just a bit
slower to enter the region than previously anticipated. As a
result, the best chances for widespread, soaking rains will be
Saturday night and Sunday. Models continue to spit out low values
of most unstable CAPE, so will continue the slight chance mention
for thunder tonight through Sunday. Overall, expected rainfall
amounts are about the same, one to one and a half inches, with the
highest amounts over the eastern half of the area. Can`t
completely rule out a few wet snowflakes Sunday night as the
system exits, but not expecting any impacts.

Temperature wise, mild readings will persist through the weekend, a
very welcome change from the past 10 or so days. The cold front
will move into the region later Sunday into Sunday night, however,
ending our brief stretch of mild (normal) November temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A deep trough will develop over the central U.S. early next week
with below average temperatures returning to the area. Scattered
showers will end over the eastern Ozarks early Monday morning.
Monday will be a breezy and colder day. Clouds will try to clear
from southwest to northeast but the Lake of the Ozarks region will
likely hold on to the clouds all day.

Another shortwave will move across the region on Wednesday which
will bring clouds with the system but overall it will be moisture
starved. A cold will move through on Wednesday and bring another
reinforcing shot of cold air for Thursday into Friday. It will be
rather quiet with the weather for travelers on Wednesday. And right
now Thanksgiving looks to be cold and mostly sunny.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 538 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Abundant low level moisture will remain over the region ahead of a
warm front and approaching upper level disturbance. We are
expecting IFR and LIFR conditions to persist around Branson into
at least early Saturday morning...if not longer. Ceilings around
Springfield and Branson are a tougher call as weather models offer
a variety of forecasts. Upstream observations and a recently
released weather balloon indicate that moisture has increased
significantly between 700 and 1500 feet AGL around Springfield.
While downslope flow off the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau
will counteract the potential for IFR, we feel that enough
moisture is present for IFR later this evening at Springfield.
Ceilings at Joplin are expected to remain in the MVFR category for
most of tonight, but may approach IFR at times. MVFR ceilings are
then expected at Springfield and Joplin on Saturday. Scattered
showers will also develop across the region with the approach of
that disturbance. Meanwhile, brisk and gusty southeast winds will
slowly turn around to southerly later tonight and Saturday. Low
level wind shear conditions will also continue into early Saturday
as a low level jet stream remains over the region.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 220348
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
948 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

We have made a few tweaks to the overnight and early Saturday
morning forecast. First off, patchy fog was inserted across south-
central Missouri as the setup has become favorable for advection
fog north of a warm front which was located near I-40. We may also
see some terrain effects come into play in the form of upslope and
stratus build-down. Thus, we have generally kept the fog mention
along and south of the Ozark Plateau spine.

We have also trimmed back PoPs overnight over most areas. While we
will continue to see patchy drizzle, shower activity will be
isolated to widely scattered in nature over most areas. The one
exception may be later tonight from southeastern Kansas into west-
central Missouri where slightly better lift and instability will
exist. We have kept PoPs around 40% in this area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Cloudy, cool conditions have been observed across the region thus
far today. As expected, rain and drizzle has been spotty, with one
batch exiting into central, MO and another entering southern and
south central MO. Temperatures do range quite a bit across the
area with near 60 degrees at Joplin and around 40 at West Plains.
Temperatures will oscillate a bit this evening, with steady/slowly
rising temperatures expected once again tonight as continued,
strong low level warm air advection continues.

As has been discussed over the past few days, we continue to
battle pockets of lift and an overall dry atmosphere. Moisture
return has been mainly confined to the low level jet level, good
enough to produce widespread stratus, but not so good at producing
widespread rain to this point. The story remains the same tonight
into Saturday as the main upper level system will be just a bit
slower to enter the region than previously anticipated. As a
result, the best chances for widespread, soaking rains will be
Saturday night and Sunday. Models continue to spit out low values
of most unstable CAPE, so will continue the slight chance mention
for thunder tonight through Sunday. Overall, expected rainfall
amounts are about the same, one to one and a half inches, with the
highest amounts over the eastern half of the area. Can`t
completely rule out a few wet snowflakes Sunday night as the
system exits, but not expecting any impacts.

Temperature wise, mild readings will persist through the weekend, a
very welcome change from the past 10 or so days. The cold front
will move into the region later Sunday into Sunday night, however,
ending our brief stretch of mild (normal) November temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A deep trough will develop over the central U.S. early next week
with below average temperatures returning to the area. Scattered
showers will end over the eastern Ozarks early Monday morning.
Monday will be a breezy and colder day. Clouds will try to clear
from southwest to northeast but the Lake of the Ozarks region will
likely hold on to the clouds all day.

Another shortwave will move across the region on Wednesday which
will bring clouds with the system but overall it will be moisture
starved. A cold will move through on Wednesday and bring another
reinforcing shot of cold air for Thursday into Friday. It will be
rather quiet with the weather for travelers on Wednesday. And right
now Thanksgiving looks to be cold and mostly sunny.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 538 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Abundant low level moisture will remain over the region ahead of a
warm front and approaching upper level disturbance. We are
expecting IFR and LIFR conditions to persist around Branson into
at least early Saturday morning...if not longer. Ceilings around
Springfield and Branson are a tougher call as weather models offer
a variety of forecasts. Upstream observations and a recently
released weather balloon indicate that moisture has increased
significantly between 700 and 1500 feet AGL around Springfield.
While downslope flow off the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau
will counteract the potential for IFR, we feel that enough
moisture is present for IFR later this evening at Springfield.
Ceilings at Joplin are expected to remain in the MVFR category for
most of tonight, but may approach IFR at times. MVFR ceilings are
then expected at Springfield and Joplin on Saturday. Scattered
showers will also develop across the region with the approach of
that disturbance. Meanwhile, brisk and gusty southeast winds will
slowly turn around to southerly later tonight and Saturday. Low
level wind shear conditions will also continue into early Saturday
as a low level jet stream remains over the region.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KEAX 220321
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
921 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Trimmed back overnight PoPs as deeper moisture as noted in IR
satellite imagery and radar returns is peeling off to the northeast.
00z NAM and RUC h7 condensation pressure deficit progs support this
as does the miniscuel reflectivity returns on the HRRR. Bufr
soundings are more supportive of drizzle forming overnight. Will
stratify PoPs with best chances for rain over the southeast 1/3 of
the CWA. Deeper moisture doesn`t arrive from teh southwest until
later Saturday afternoon so until then think low chance PoPs the best
one can do.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Main concern in the short term will be fog, stratus, and light
showers as a broad area of warm air advection continues across the
region. Without a strong focus for lift, any precipitation tonight
into Saturday should be fairly light throughout the region. Dense
fog looks likely mainly across eastern Kansas and northwest MO where
moisture will remain fairly shallow; farther to the southeast, low
stratus and continued isolated showers seem more likely. May need a
dense fog advisory in far western and northwestern portions of the
CWA tonight, but will wait to see how efficiently fog develops later
this evening. Another round of dense fog looks possible on Saturday
night across far northern MO and especially further to the north in
IA, with continued stratus to the south.

Rain will become more widespread for Sunday as a shortwave trough
lifts out of the southern Plains and into eastern MO, and a surface
low tightens up over central portions of the state. Rain is most
likely and potential precipitation totals are highest across far
eastern portions of the CWA, but at least some rainfall is likely as
far west as the KC metro during the daylight hours. Timing for the
exit of this system is still a little uncertain, but rain should be
tapering off by late Sunday evening into the early morning hours
Monday. A second system is still also expected to sweep in from the
northern Plains on Sunday, bringing colder air into northern MO by
late Sunday and into the remainder of the state on Monday. Rain may
briefly mix with or change over to snow in northern MO late Sunday
night or early Monday as the first system departs and cold air
surges in, but warm/wet ground and depleted moisture will prevent
any snow accumulation.

Colder temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday as the second
system continues to dive southeast and allows Canadian air to filter
into the central CONUS; then some brief warming is possible
Wednesday as that system departs. The latest 2 runs of both the EC
and GFS have finally come into much better alignment for Thursday
and Friday, indicating a rather cold but dry Thanksgiving, but a
quick warm up for Friday beyond the end of the period. Have removed
all PoPs beyond the weekend system, leaving the long-range forecast
period dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 550 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Cigs and fog will be the primary concerns. An area of dense fog and
LIFR cigs over central KS lines up well with the latest HRRR and SREF
short range models and they spread LIFR cigs/dense fog into northwest
MO later this evening and eventually across all of northern MO.
Appears the deeper moisture advecting into west central and central
MO will result in mainly a lowering of cigs to IFR/LIFR overnight and
ward off the dense fog. Depth of moisture will maintain cloud cover
with improvement only to MVFR in the afternoon.

Precipitation will be light and limited to mostly patchy and
intermittent drizzle overnight. Showers will be more likely east of
the terminals from southwest into central MO, decreasing in coverage
to isolated towards the MO/KS state line.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KEAX 220321
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
921 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Trimmed back overnight PoPs as deeper moisture as noted in IR
satellite imagery and radar returns is peeling off to the northeast.
00z NAM and RUC h7 condensation pressure deficit progs support this
as does the miniscuel reflectivity returns on the HRRR. Bufr
soundings are more supportive of drizzle forming overnight. Will
stratify PoPs with best chances for rain over the southeast 1/3 of
the CWA. Deeper moisture doesn`t arrive from teh southwest until
later Saturday afternoon so until then think low chance PoPs the best
one can do.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Main concern in the short term will be fog, stratus, and light
showers as a broad area of warm air advection continues across the
region. Without a strong focus for lift, any precipitation tonight
into Saturday should be fairly light throughout the region. Dense
fog looks likely mainly across eastern Kansas and northwest MO where
moisture will remain fairly shallow; farther to the southeast, low
stratus and continued isolated showers seem more likely. May need a
dense fog advisory in far western and northwestern portions of the
CWA tonight, but will wait to see how efficiently fog develops later
this evening. Another round of dense fog looks possible on Saturday
night across far northern MO and especially further to the north in
IA, with continued stratus to the south.

Rain will become more widespread for Sunday as a shortwave trough
lifts out of the southern Plains and into eastern MO, and a surface
low tightens up over central portions of the state. Rain is most
likely and potential precipitation totals are highest across far
eastern portions of the CWA, but at least some rainfall is likely as
far west as the KC metro during the daylight hours. Timing for the
exit of this system is still a little uncertain, but rain should be
tapering off by late Sunday evening into the early morning hours
Monday. A second system is still also expected to sweep in from the
northern Plains on Sunday, bringing colder air into northern MO by
late Sunday and into the remainder of the state on Monday. Rain may
briefly mix with or change over to snow in northern MO late Sunday
night or early Monday as the first system departs and cold air
surges in, but warm/wet ground and depleted moisture will prevent
any snow accumulation.

Colder temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday as the second
system continues to dive southeast and allows Canadian air to filter
into the central CONUS; then some brief warming is possible
Wednesday as that system departs. The latest 2 runs of both the EC
and GFS have finally come into much better alignment for Thursday
and Friday, indicating a rather cold but dry Thanksgiving, but a
quick warm up for Friday beyond the end of the period. Have removed
all PoPs beyond the weekend system, leaving the long-range forecast
period dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 550 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Cigs and fog will be the primary concerns. An area of dense fog and
LIFR cigs over central KS lines up well with the latest HRRR and SREF
short range models and they spread LIFR cigs/dense fog into northwest
MO later this evening and eventually across all of northern MO.
Appears the deeper moisture advecting into west central and central
MO will result in mainly a lowering of cigs to IFR/LIFR overnight and
ward off the dense fog. Depth of moisture will maintain cloud cover
with improvement only to MVFR in the afternoon.

Precipitation will be light and limited to mostly patchy and
intermittent drizzle overnight. Showers will be more likely east of
the terminals from southwest into central MO, decreasing in coverage
to isolated towards the MO/KS state line.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...MJ






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities