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000
FXUS63 KEAX 230452
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1152 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Late this afternoon an elongated area of showers and isolated
thunderstorms extends from the Dakotas southward into north central
Kansas and further south scattered into central Texas.  This
activity is associated with an upper trough propagating through the
northern Plains along with a secondary vorticity maximum in the
southern stream moving into western Oklahoma.  Short range models
such as the HRRR and local WRF seemed to be doing a good job with
the timing of the precipitation into the forecast area.  Still
expecting rain to spread into the area first in northwest Missouri
later this evening, then gradually across the rest of the forecast
area after midnight.

Upper features and weak surface boundary gradually exit the area
tomorrow bringing an end to the precipitation from west to east.  A
few of the model time sections try to hold on to some cloud cover
during the day tomorrow especially over northeast Missouri, however
still anticipating seeing improving conditions in the afternoon
particularly over eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

Air mass behind the surface boundary moving through on Thursday not
significantly different than air mass currently over region so if
clouds can clear would still expect temperatures to rebound to above
seasonal values tomorrow.  Significant warming of the lower and
middle layers of the atmosphere is forecast for Thursday night and
Friday. 850hPa temperatures approach +18C by 00Z Saturday in eastern
Kansas and western Missouri and as a result surface temperatures
should warm into the middle and upper 70s on Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A very pleasant weekend in store as a broad upper level ridge builds
into the country`s mid-section. This puts the CWA under northwest
flow aloft and surface winds shifting around from more northerly at
the start of the weekend to southeasterly by Sunday. With 850mb
temperatures progged to be in the mid teens, and thermal ridge axis
across the CWA Saturday afternoon, wouldn`t be surprised to see a
few locations reach 80 degrees by mid-afternoon. The upper level
ridge will shift eastward and over the area by Sunday, and allow for
another beautiful fall day with highs reaching the low 80s. However,
these reminiscent summerish days won`t last long given an
approaching trough that will bring another chance for rain and a few
thunderstorms. Southerly winds will help advect higher dewpoints
into the region Sunday and Monday increasing instability across the
region. With 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE forecast, cannot rule out a
rumble or two Monday afternoon ahead of the approaching trough.
Long-range models refuse to come to an agreement on the timing and
southern extent this trough will take. The EC takes a more aggressive
and slower approach by deepening the low as it moves across NM and
the TX panhandle. The GFS is less aggressive and keeps the main
trough across the Northern Plains with flow becoming more zonal by
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Line of showers are approaching the KS/MO border but the timing of
arrival at the TAF sites have been pushed back slightly again with
this update (~07Z for MCI/MKC, a bit sooner for IXD/STJ). While VFR
conditions are anticipated to prevail throughout much of this
forecast period, could see some drops to MVFR with any heavier
showers that may traverse the terminals. However, this activity is
still expected to generally remain on the lighter side. Winds will be
at their strongest overnight through the morning hours on Thursday,
backing off as the clouds and precip clear in the afternoon hours.
Southerly to southwesterly winds will dominate.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mitchell
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...lg







000
FXUS63 KEAX 230452
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1152 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Late this afternoon an elongated area of showers and isolated
thunderstorms extends from the Dakotas southward into north central
Kansas and further south scattered into central Texas.  This
activity is associated with an upper trough propagating through the
northern Plains along with a secondary vorticity maximum in the
southern stream moving into western Oklahoma.  Short range models
such as the HRRR and local WRF seemed to be doing a good job with
the timing of the precipitation into the forecast area.  Still
expecting rain to spread into the area first in northwest Missouri
later this evening, then gradually across the rest of the forecast
area after midnight.

Upper features and weak surface boundary gradually exit the area
tomorrow bringing an end to the precipitation from west to east.  A
few of the model time sections try to hold on to some cloud cover
during the day tomorrow especially over northeast Missouri, however
still anticipating seeing improving conditions in the afternoon
particularly over eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

Air mass behind the surface boundary moving through on Thursday not
significantly different than air mass currently over region so if
clouds can clear would still expect temperatures to rebound to above
seasonal values tomorrow.  Significant warming of the lower and
middle layers of the atmosphere is forecast for Thursday night and
Friday. 850hPa temperatures approach +18C by 00Z Saturday in eastern
Kansas and western Missouri and as a result surface temperatures
should warm into the middle and upper 70s on Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A very pleasant weekend in store as a broad upper level ridge builds
into the country`s mid-section. This puts the CWA under northwest
flow aloft and surface winds shifting around from more northerly at
the start of the weekend to southeasterly by Sunday. With 850mb
temperatures progged to be in the mid teens, and thermal ridge axis
across the CWA Saturday afternoon, wouldn`t be surprised to see a
few locations reach 80 degrees by mid-afternoon. The upper level
ridge will shift eastward and over the area by Sunday, and allow for
another beautiful fall day with highs reaching the low 80s. However,
these reminiscent summerish days won`t last long given an
approaching trough that will bring another chance for rain and a few
thunderstorms. Southerly winds will help advect higher dewpoints
into the region Sunday and Monday increasing instability across the
region. With 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE forecast, cannot rule out a
rumble or two Monday afternoon ahead of the approaching trough.
Long-range models refuse to come to an agreement on the timing and
southern extent this trough will take. The EC takes a more aggressive
and slower approach by deepening the low as it moves across NM and
the TX panhandle. The GFS is less aggressive and keeps the main
trough across the Northern Plains with flow becoming more zonal by
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Line of showers are approaching the KS/MO border but the timing of
arrival at the TAF sites have been pushed back slightly again with
this update (~07Z for MCI/MKC, a bit sooner for IXD/STJ). While VFR
conditions are anticipated to prevail throughout much of this
forecast period, could see some drops to MVFR with any heavier
showers that may traverse the terminals. However, this activity is
still expected to generally remain on the lighter side. Winds will be
at their strongest overnight through the morning hours on Thursday,
backing off as the clouds and precip clear in the afternoon hours.
Southerly to southwesterly winds will dominate.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mitchell
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...lg






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000
FXUS63 KLSX 230428
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1128 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight and Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

The surface ridge which has been controlling our weather for the
past couple of days is drifting east and weakening slightly with
time.  Water vapor imagery is showing an elongated wave extending
from Saskatchewan all the way south into west Texas.  This wave will
continue working slowly eastward overnight and should extend from
south central Iowa southwest through eastern Oklahoma by 12Z
Thursday morning.  Operational guidance is pretty adamant that there
will be little if any precip east-southeast of Kirksville in our
area before 12Z, with precip chances ramping up during the daylight
hours Thursday morning.  Scattered to isolated showers probably
won`t get into east central Missouri, but central and northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois should see some light showers in
the morning.  Rain chances diminish Thursday afternoon as the wave
loses some potency, and drier low level air on the western side of
the stubborn surface ridge cuts into the showers.  MOS guidance
looks reasonable for both highs Thursday afternoon and lows tonight.

Carney

.LONG TERM: (Thursday Night through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Any lingering showers should be exiting the area along with the
shortwave by 00Z Friday or shortly thereafter.  Another upper level
ridge builds over the Rockies and across the Great Plains Friday
into Saturday.  Northwest flow aloft will prevail both days while a
weak cold front tries to dip into Missouri and Illinois.  The upper
ridge will move over the Midwest on Sunday allowing another high
pressure system to move into the Ohio Valley.  The western edge of
the airmass keeps edging further and further west with each model
run.  Have lowered temperatures a bit from the last couple of
forecasts, tho have tried to keep highs Sunday warmer than guidance,
and retained warmest temperatures over west/southwest sections of
the CWFA.

A full-latitude trof moves into the Great Plains Monday which will
bring broad south-southwest flow to the region and warm temperatures
in the mid to upper 70s.  The surface system associated with the
trof will gain strength and affect the area Tuesday into Wednesday.
Some discrepancies with the medium range models out that far, but
high chance PoPs ahead of the cold front on Tuesday look
reasonable.  Position and speed of the system will determine whether
or not there will be thunderstorms, but a slight chance is not out
of the question.


Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Surface ridge extending from MI southwest through southeast MO
will shift slowly southeastward this period. An upper level
disturbance and associated weakening cool front/surface trough
will move eastward through the region on Thursday. Most of the
precipitation associated with this feature will be n-nw of the taf
sites, although UIN may receive a brief shower late Thursday
morning or early afternoon. For now will include mainly mid-high
level cloudiness in the tafs for Thursday. The NAM MOS guidance
appears a little overdone on its low level cloud forecast. Could
not rule out a little fog in SUS and CPS late tonight with only a
little cirrus cloudiness and calm surface wind. E-sely surface
winds will veer around to a sly direction Thursday morning.

Specifics for KSTL: Mid-high level cloudiness will advect into the
STL area on Thursday. Any significant rain should remain n-nw of
STL. A light e-sely surface wind late tonight will gradually veer
around to a sly direction Thursday morning, and eventually to a
swly direction Thursday night.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     45  65  53  73 /   5  20  10   5
Quincy          43  62  50  70 /  10  40  10   5
Columbia        47  67  52  75 /  10  30  10   5
Jefferson City  45  68  50  76 /  10  20  10   5
Salem           39  62  49  69 /   0  10  10   5
Farmington      39  63  48  72 /   5  10  10   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KSGF 230426
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1126 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...06z Aviation Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Another day with abundant sunshine across the area with an upper
level ridge axis centered across the Mississippi valley region.
Surface ridge has shifted off to the east and we saw a return to a
southeast wind last night and today across the area. Temperatures
were ranging from the low 60s east to low 70s west.

Forecast will focus on shower/thunderstorm chances late tonight
into Thursday, the significant warm up for Friday through the
weekend, and the chance of showers and thunderstorms returning for
Monday-Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Upper level ridge currently in place over the area will be quick
to exit to the east tonight with shortwave energy pushing across
the area late tonight into Thursday. The shortwave will bring
increased cloud cover and a chance of showers/isolated thunder,
mainly to the western CWA with decreasing moisture availability as
you head further east. There will be a lower temperature range
tonight/Thursday than we have seen the past couple of days with
increasing cloud cover as the shortwave moves in. The coolest
readings will be over the eastern CWA which will see the onset of
the cloud cover the latest and will hold on to the cloud cover the
longest on Thursday. This won`t be a big rainmaker, even for the
western CWA where the higher pops exist as this will be a quick
moving system and moisture content looks to be lacking.
Instability looks to be enough to support some isolated thunder in
the far western CWA, but no severe storms are expected.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Rain chances will come to an end by Thursday night and another
upper level ridge will begin to build back into the area from the
west. This ridge will be more amplified and will linger a bit
longer across the area from Friday through the weekend, also
advecting in some low level fairly warm air. Looks like the
extended init tools may be slightly cool Saturday and Sunday and
have adjusted slightly higher. Have continued to include current
record highs for the period Friday-Sunday in the climate section
below as a reference, but it appears we are still going to be shy
of the records at this point.

Ridge will begin to shift off to the east Sunday night and Monday
with a return to southwest flow aloft and a good Gulf moisture
feed into the area in the lower levels ahead of the next trough.
This will set up a much better opportunity for widespread
showers/thunderstorms heading into Monday night/Tuesday. New ECMWF
bring main upper level energy into the area Tuesday night and
continues convective precipitation chances then as well, while GFS
pushes this system through more progressively during the day
Tuesday. For now will leave things dry for Tuesday, but we may
need to start adding pops for Tuesday night if this trend continues.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Some light
showers will be possible toward morning, with chances at JLN at
least worthy of VCSH mention. For BBG and SGF, while there will be
a chance, very dry air in place aloft will keep potential too low
to warrant a TAF mention at this time. If showers do affect a
terminal, vis and cigs should remain well into VFR range.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell
CLIMATE...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KEAX 222338
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
638 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Late this afternoon an elongated area of showers and isolated
thunderstorms extends from the Dakotas southward into north central
Kansas and further south scattered into central Texas.  This
activity is associated with an upper trough propagating through the
northern Plains along with a secondary vorticity maximum in the
southern stream moving into western Oklahoma.  Short range models
such as the HRRR and local WRF seemed to be doing a good job with
the timing of the precipitation into the forecast area.  Still
expecting rain to spread into the area first in northwest Missouri
later this evening, then gradually across the rest of the forecast
area after midnight.

Upper features and weak surface boundary gradually exit the area
tomorrow bringing an end to the precipitation from west to east.  A
few of the model time sections try to hold on to some cloud cover
during the day tomorrow especially over northeast Missouri, however
still anticipating seeing improving conditions in the afternoon
particularly over eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

Air mass behind the surface boundary moving through on Thursday not
significantly different than air mass currently over region so if
clouds can clear would still expect temperatures to rebound to above
seasonal values tomorrow.  Significant warming of the lower and
middle layers of the atmosphere is forecast for Thursday night and
Friday. 850hPa temperatures approach +18C by 00Z Saturday in eastern
Kansas and western Missouri and as a result surface temperatures
should warm into the middle and upper 70s on Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A very pleasant weekend in store as a broad upper level ridge builds
into the country`s mid-section. This puts the CWA under northwest
flow aloft and surface winds shifting around from more northerly at
the start of the weekend to southeasterly by Sunday. With 850mb
temperatures progged to be in the mid teens, and thermal ridge axis
across the CWA Saturday afternoon, wouldn`t be surprised to see a
few locations reach 80 degrees by mid-afternoon. The upper level
ridge will shift eastward and over the area by Sunday, and allow for
another beautiful fall day with highs reaching the low 80s. However,
these reminiscent summerish days won`t last long given an
approaching trough that will bring another chance for rain and a few
thunderstorms. Southerly winds will help advect higher dewpoints
into the region Sunday and Monday increasing instability across the
region. With 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE forecast, cannot rule out a
rumble or two Monday afternoon ahead of the approaching trough.
Long-range models refuse to come to an agreement on the timing and
southern extent this trough will take. The EC takes a more aggressive
and slower approach by deepening the low as it moves across NM and
the TX panhandle. The GFS is less aggressive and keeps the main
trough across the Northern Plains with flow becoming more zonal by
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR conditions to prevail through the remainder of the evening hours
before line of showers/lowering ceilings move in around midnight.
Precip is anticipated to remain on the lighter side, leaving visbys
and ceilings currently projected to not drop below MVFR at all four
TAF sites. Low-level cloud deck and precip will exit by the morning
hours with decent clearing by the afternoon on Thursday. Southerly
winds will dominate, making a shift behind this line of precip from
the SW tomorrow. Winds could be gusty at times, especially with the
precip.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mitchell
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...lg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 222314
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
614 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...00Z Aviation Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Another day with abundant sunshine across the area with an upper
level ridge axis centered across the Mississippi valley region.
Surface ridge has shifted off to the east and we saw a return to a
southeast wind last night and today across the area. Temperatures
were ranging from the low 60s east to low 70s west.

Forecast will focus on shower/thunderstorm chances late tonight
into Thursday, the significant warm up for Friday through the
weekend, and the chance of showers and thunderstorms returning for
Monday-Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Upper level ridge currently in place over the area will be quick
to exit to the east tonight with shortwave energy pushing across
the area late tonight into Thursday. The shortwave will bring
increased cloud cover and a chance of showers/isolated thunder,
mainly to the western CWA with decreasing moisture availability as
you head further east. There will be a lower temperature range
tonight/Thursday than we have seen the past couple of days with
increasing cloud cover as the shortwave moves in. The coolest
readings will be over the eastern CWA which will see the onset of
the cloud cover the latest and will hold on to the cloud cover the
longest on Thursday. This won`t be a big rainmaker, even for the
western CWA where the higher pops exist as this will be a quick
moving system and moisture content looks to be lacking.
Instability looks to be enough to support some isolated thunder in
the far western CWA, but no severe storms are expected.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Rain chances will come to an end by Thursday night and another
upper level ridge will begin to build back into the area from the
west. This ridge will be more amplified and will linger a bit
longer across the area from Friday through the weekend, also
advecting in some low level fairly warm air. Looks like the
extended init tools may be slightly cool Saturday and Sunday and
have adjusted slightly higher. Have continued to include current
record highs for the period Friday-Sunday in the climate section
below as a reference, but it appears we are still going to be shy
of the records at this point.

Ridge will begin to shift off to the east Sunday night and Monday
with a return to southwest flow aloft and a good Gulf moisture
feed into the area in the lower levels ahead of the next trough.
This will set up a much better opportunity for widespread
showers/thunderstorms heading into Monday night/Tuesday. New ECMWF
bring main upper level energy into the area Tuesday night and
continues convective precipitation chances then as well, while GFS
pushes this system through more progressively during the day
Tuesday. For now will leave things dry for Tuesday, but we may
need to start adding pops for Tuesday night if this trend continues.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Some light
showers will be possible tomorrow morning, and will maintain the
PROB30 group at JLN, where the chances for rain are best (in a
relative sense). That said, copious amounts of dry air in place will
keep most locations dry, and even where showers do develop, flight
conditions should remain within VFR.

Any showers that develop during the morning will dissipate by
early afternoon, with gradually clearing skies thereafter.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell
CLIMATE...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 222314
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
614 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...00Z Aviation Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Another day with abundant sunshine across the area with an upper
level ridge axis centered across the Mississippi valley region.
Surface ridge has shifted off to the east and we saw a return to a
southeast wind last night and today across the area. Temperatures
were ranging from the low 60s east to low 70s west.

Forecast will focus on shower/thunderstorm chances late tonight
into Thursday, the significant warm up for Friday through the
weekend, and the chance of showers and thunderstorms returning for
Monday-Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Upper level ridge currently in place over the area will be quick
to exit to the east tonight with shortwave energy pushing across
the area late tonight into Thursday. The shortwave will bring
increased cloud cover and a chance of showers/isolated thunder,
mainly to the western CWA with decreasing moisture availability as
you head further east. There will be a lower temperature range
tonight/Thursday than we have seen the past couple of days with
increasing cloud cover as the shortwave moves in. The coolest
readings will be over the eastern CWA which will see the onset of
the cloud cover the latest and will hold on to the cloud cover the
longest on Thursday. This won`t be a big rainmaker, even for the
western CWA where the higher pops exist as this will be a quick
moving system and moisture content looks to be lacking.
Instability looks to be enough to support some isolated thunder in
the far western CWA, but no severe storms are expected.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Rain chances will come to an end by Thursday night and another
upper level ridge will begin to build back into the area from the
west. This ridge will be more amplified and will linger a bit
longer across the area from Friday through the weekend, also
advecting in some low level fairly warm air. Looks like the
extended init tools may be slightly cool Saturday and Sunday and
have adjusted slightly higher. Have continued to include current
record highs for the period Friday-Sunday in the climate section
below as a reference, but it appears we are still going to be shy
of the records at this point.

Ridge will begin to shift off to the east Sunday night and Monday
with a return to southwest flow aloft and a good Gulf moisture
feed into the area in the lower levels ahead of the next trough.
This will set up a much better opportunity for widespread
showers/thunderstorms heading into Monday night/Tuesday. New ECMWF
bring main upper level energy into the area Tuesday night and
continues convective precipitation chances then as well, while GFS
pushes this system through more progressively during the day
Tuesday. For now will leave things dry for Tuesday, but we may
need to start adding pops for Tuesday night if this trend continues.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Some light
showers will be possible tomorrow morning, and will maintain the
PROB30 group at JLN, where the chances for rain are best (in a
relative sense). That said, copious amounts of dry air in place will
keep most locations dry, and even where showers do develop, flight
conditions should remain within VFR.

Any showers that develop during the morning will dissipate by
early afternoon, with gradually clearing skies thereafter.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell
CLIMATE...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KLSX 222253
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
553 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight and Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

The surface ridge which has been controlling our weather for the
past couple of days is drifting east and weakening slightly with
time.  Water vapor imagery is showing an elongated wave extending
from Saskatchewan all the way south into west Texas.  This wave will
continue working slowly eastward overnight and should extend from
south central Iowa southwest through eastern Oklahoma by 12Z
Thursday morning.  Operational guidance is pretty adamant that there
will be little if any precip east-southeast of Kirksville in our
area before 12Z, with precip chances ramping up during the daylight
hours Thursday morning.  Scattered to isolated showers probably
won`t get into east central Missouri, but central and northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois should see some light showers in
the morning.  Rain chances diminish Thursday afternoon as the wave
loses some potency, and drier low level air on the western side of
the stubborn surface ridge cuts into the showers.  MOS guidance
looks reasonable for both highs Thursday afternoon and lows tonight.

Carney

.LONG TERM: (Thursday Night through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Any lingering showers should be exiting the area along with the
shortwave by 00Z Friday or shortly thereafter.  Another upper level
ridge builds over the Rockies and across the Great Plains Friday
into Saturday.  Northwest flow aloft will prevail both days while a
weak cold front tries to dip into Missouri and Illinois.  The upper
ridge will move over the Midwest on Sunday allowing another high
pressure system to move into the Ohio Valley.  The western edge of
the airmass keeps edging further and further west with each model
run.  Have lowered temperatures a bit from the last couple of
forecasts, tho have tried to keep highs Sunday warmer than guidance,
and retained warmest temperatures over west/southwest sections of
the CWFA.

A full-latitude trof moves into the Great Plains Monday which will
bring broad south-southwest flow to the region and warm temperatures
in the mid to upper 70s.  The surface system associated with the
trof will gain strength and affect the area Tuesday into Wednesday.
Some discrepancies with the medium range models out that far, but
high chance PoPs ahead of the cold front on Tuesday look
reasonable.  Position and speed of the system will determine whether
or not there will be thunderstorms, but a slight chance is not out
of the question.


Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 531 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Surface ridge extending from MI southwest through southeast MO
will shift slowly southeastward this period. An upper level
disturbance and associated weakening cool front/surface trough
will move eastward through the region on Thursday. Most of the
precipitation associated with this feature will be n-nw of the taf
sites, although UIN may receive a brief shower late Thursday
morning or early afternoon. For now will just include some mid-
high level cloudiness in the tafs for Thursday. The NAM MOS
guidance appears a little overdone on its low level cloud
forecast. E-sely surface winds will veer around to a sly direction
Thursday morning.

Specifics for KSTL: Mid-high level cloudiness will advect into the
STL area on Thursday. Any significant rain should remain n-nw of
STL. A light e-sely surface wind tonight will gradually veer around
to a sly direction Thursday morning, and eventually to a swly
direction Thursday evening.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     46  65  53  73 /   5  20  10   5
Quincy          43  62  50  70 /  10  40  10   5
Columbia        46  67  52  75 /  10  30  10   5
Jefferson City  45  68  50  76 /  10  20  10   5
Salem           42  62  49  69 /   0  10  10   5
Farmington      40  63  48  72 /   5  10  10   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 222253
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
553 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight and Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

The surface ridge which has been controlling our weather for the
past couple of days is drifting east and weakening slightly with
time.  Water vapor imagery is showing an elongated wave extending
from Saskatchewan all the way south into west Texas.  This wave will
continue working slowly eastward overnight and should extend from
south central Iowa southwest through eastern Oklahoma by 12Z
Thursday morning.  Operational guidance is pretty adamant that there
will be little if any precip east-southeast of Kirksville in our
area before 12Z, with precip chances ramping up during the daylight
hours Thursday morning.  Scattered to isolated showers probably
won`t get into east central Missouri, but central and northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois should see some light showers in
the morning.  Rain chances diminish Thursday afternoon as the wave
loses some potency, and drier low level air on the western side of
the stubborn surface ridge cuts into the showers.  MOS guidance
looks reasonable for both highs Thursday afternoon and lows tonight.

Carney

.LONG TERM: (Thursday Night through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Any lingering showers should be exiting the area along with the
shortwave by 00Z Friday or shortly thereafter.  Another upper level
ridge builds over the Rockies and across the Great Plains Friday
into Saturday.  Northwest flow aloft will prevail both days while a
weak cold front tries to dip into Missouri and Illinois.  The upper
ridge will move over the Midwest on Sunday allowing another high
pressure system to move into the Ohio Valley.  The western edge of
the airmass keeps edging further and further west with each model
run.  Have lowered temperatures a bit from the last couple of
forecasts, tho have tried to keep highs Sunday warmer than guidance,
and retained warmest temperatures over west/southwest sections of
the CWFA.

A full-latitude trof moves into the Great Plains Monday which will
bring broad south-southwest flow to the region and warm temperatures
in the mid to upper 70s.  The surface system associated with the
trof will gain strength and affect the area Tuesday into Wednesday.
Some discrepancies with the medium range models out that far, but
high chance PoPs ahead of the cold front on Tuesday look
reasonable.  Position and speed of the system will determine whether
or not there will be thunderstorms, but a slight chance is not out
of the question.


Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 531 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Surface ridge extending from MI southwest through southeast MO
will shift slowly southeastward this period. An upper level
disturbance and associated weakening cool front/surface trough
will move eastward through the region on Thursday. Most of the
precipitation associated with this feature will be n-nw of the taf
sites, although UIN may receive a brief shower late Thursday
morning or early afternoon. For now will just include some mid-
high level cloudiness in the tafs for Thursday. The NAM MOS
guidance appears a little overdone on its low level cloud
forecast. E-sely surface winds will veer around to a sly direction
Thursday morning.

Specifics for KSTL: Mid-high level cloudiness will advect into the
STL area on Thursday. Any significant rain should remain n-nw of
STL. A light e-sely surface wind tonight will gradually veer around
to a sly direction Thursday morning, and eventually to a swly
direction Thursday evening.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     46  65  53  73 /   5  20  10   5
Quincy          43  62  50  70 /  10  40  10   5
Columbia        46  67  52  75 /  10  30  10   5
Jefferson City  45  68  50  76 /  10  20  10   5
Salem           42  62  49  69 /   0  10  10   5
Farmington      40  63  48  72 /   5  10  10   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 222102
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
402 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight and Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

The surface ridge which has been controlling our weather for the
past couple of days is drifting east and weakening slightly with
time.  Water vapor imagery is showing an elongated wave extending
from Saskatchewan all the way south into west Texas.  This wave will
continue working slowly eastward overnight and should extend from
south central Iowa southwest through eastern Oklahoma by 12Z
Thursday morning.  Operational guidance is pretty adamant that there
will be little if any precip east-southeast of Kirksville in our
area before 12Z, with precip chances ramping up during the daylight
hours Thursday morning.  Scattered to isolated showers probably
won`t get into east central Missouri, but central and northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois should see some light showers in
the morning.  Rain chances diminish Thursday afternoon as the wave
loses some potency, and drier low level air on the western side of
the stubborn surface ridge cuts into the showers.  MOS guidance
looks reasonable for both highs Thursday afternoon and lows tonight.

Carney

.LONG TERM: (Thursday Night through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Any lingering showers should be exiting the area along with the
shortwave by 00Z Friday or shortly thereafter.  Another upper level
ridge builds over the Rockies and across the Great Plains Friday
into Saturday.  Northwest flow aloft will prevail both days while a
weak cold front tries to dip into Missouri and Illinois.  The upper
ridge will move over the Midwest on Sunday allowing another high
pressure system to move into the Ohio Valley.  The western edge of
the airmass keeps edging further and further west with each model
run.  Have lowered temperatures a bit from the last couple of
forecasts, tho have tried to keep highs Sunday warmer than guidance,
and retained warmest temperatures over west/southwest sections of
the CWFA.

A full-latitude trof moves into the Great Plains Monday which will
bring broad south-southwest flow to the region and warm temperatures
in the mid to upper 70s.  The surface system associated with the
trof will gain strength and affect the area Tuesday into Wednesday.
Some discrepancies with the medium range models out that far, but
high chance PoPs ahead of the cold front on Tuesday look
reasonable.  Position and speed of the system will determine whether
or not there will be thunderstorms, but a slight chance is not out
of the question.


Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

VFR conditions expected to continue as high pressure ridge remains
anchored from the Great Lakes to central Arkansas. Slight chance
that a shower may impact KUIN late tomorrow - but not confident
enough to add lower ceiling or precipitation at this time due to
dry low levels of the atmosphere.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions to continue.

CVKING

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     46  65  53  73 /   5  20  10   5
Quincy          43  62  50  70 /  10  40  10   5
Columbia        46  67  52  75 /  10  30  10   5
Jefferson City  45  68  50  76 /  10  20  10   5
Salem           42  62  49  69 /   0  10  10   5
Farmington      40  63  48  72 /   5  10  10   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 222053
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
353 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Late this afternoon an elongated area of showers and isolated
thunderstorms extends from the Dakotas southward into north central
Kansas and further south scattered into central Texas.  This
activity is associated with an upper trough propagating through the
northern Plains along with a secondary vorticity maximum in the
southern stream moving into western Oklahoma.  Short range models
such as the HRRR and local WRF seemed to be doing a good job with
the timing of the precipitation into the forecast area.  Still
expecting rain to spread into the area first in northwest Missouri
later this evening, then gradually across the rest of the forecast
area after midnight.

Upper features and weak surface boundary gradually exit the area
tomorrow bringing an end to the precipitation from west to east.  A
few of the model time sections try to hold on to some cloud cover
during the day tomorrow especially over northeast Missouri, however
still anticipating seeing improving conditions in the afternoon
particularly over eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

Air mass behind the surface boundary moving through on Thursday not
significantly different than air mass currently over region so if
clouds can clear would still expect temperatures to rebound to above
seasonal values tomorrow.  Significant warming of the lower and
middle layers of the atmosphere is forecast for Thursday night and
Friday. 850hPa temperatures approach +18C by 00Z Saturday in eastern
Kansas and western Missoui and as a result surface temperatures
should warm into the middle and upper 70s on Friday.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A very pleasant weekend in store as a broad upper level ridge builds
into the country`s mid-section. This puts the CWA under northwest
flow aloft and surface winds shifting around from more northerly at
the start of the weekend to southeasterly by Sunday. With 850mb
temperatures progged to be in the mid teens, and thermal ridge axis
across the CWA Saturday afternoon, wouldn`t be surprised to see a
few locations reach 80 degrees by mid-afternoon. The upper level
ridge will shift eastward and over the area by Sunday, and allow for
another beautiful fall day with highs reaching the low 80s. However,
these reminiscent summerish days won`t last long given an
approaching trough that will bring another chance for rain and a few
thunderstorms. Southerly winds will help advect higher dewpoints
into the region Sunday and Monday increasing instability across the
region. With 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE forecast, cannot rule out a
rumble or two Monday afternoon ahead of the approaching trough.
Long-range models refuse to come to an agreement on the timing and
southern extent this trough will take. The EC takes a more aggressive
and slower approach by deepening the low as it moves across NM and
the TX panhandle. The GFS is less aggressive and keeps the main
trough across the Northern Plains with flow becoming more zonal by
Tuesday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Main challenge for the 18Z forecast cycle is timing of precipitation into
the TAF sites. In general...prefer the scenario painted by the most
recent HRRR and local WRF run which hold off precipitation until 06z
or later. Should see MVFR conditions linger well into the early morning
hours tomorrow until conditions improve towards the end of the
forecast.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mitchell
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...Mitchell







000
FXUS63 KLSX 222029
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
329 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight and Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

The surface ridge which has been controlling our weather for the
past couple of days is drifting east and weakening slightly with
time.  Water vapor imagery is showing an elongated wave extending
from Saskatchewan all the way south into west Texas.  This wave will
continue working slowly eastward overnight and should extend from
south central Iowa southwest through eastern Oklahoma by 12Z
Thursday morning.  Operational guidance is pretty adamant that there
will be little if any precip east-southeast of Kirksville in our
area before 12Z, with precip chances ramping up during the daylight
hours Thursday morning.  Scattered to isolated showers probably
won`t get into east central Missouri, but central and northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois should see some light showers in
the morning.  Rain chances diminish Thursday afternoon as the wave
loses some potency, and drier low level air on the western side of
the stubborn surface ridge cuts into the showers.  MOS guidance
looks reasonable for both highs Thursday afternoon and lows tonight.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

There is a chance of rain showers from late tonight through
tomorrow afternoon as a trough swings through the northern US.
Instability still looks very limited across central and
northeastern MO, therefore no thunder is currently forecast.

Warming trend still looks on track for Friday through Sunday due
to an upper ridge building overhead. Sunday looks particularly
warm because surface winds will have turned southerly to
southwesterly around the back side of an elongated surface high.
Another low pressure system will approach the region early next
week, bringing a chance of rain from Monday through Tuesday.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

VFR conditions expected to continue as high pressure ridge remains
anchored from the Great Lakes to central Arkansas. Slight chance
that a shower may impact KUIN late tomorrow - but not confident
enough to add lower ceiling or precipitation at this time due to
dry low levels of the atmosphere.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions to continue.

CVKING

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     46  65  53  73 /   5  20  10   5
Quincy          43  62  50  70 /  10  40  10   5
Columbia        46  67  52  75 /  10  30  10   5
Jefferson City  45  68  50  76 /  10  20  10   5
Salem           42  62  49  69 /   0  10  10   5
Farmington      40  63  48  72 /   5  10  10   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 222029
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
329 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight and Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

The surface ridge which has been controlling our weather for the
past couple of days is drifting east and weakening slightly with
time.  Water vapor imagery is showing an elongated wave extending
from Saskatchewan all the way south into west Texas.  This wave will
continue working slowly eastward overnight and should extend from
south central Iowa southwest through eastern Oklahoma by 12Z
Thursday morning.  Operational guidance is pretty adamant that there
will be little if any precip east-southeast of Kirksville in our
area before 12Z, with precip chances ramping up during the daylight
hours Thursday morning.  Scattered to isolated showers probably
won`t get into east central Missouri, but central and northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois should see some light showers in
the morning.  Rain chances diminish Thursday afternoon as the wave
loses some potency, and drier low level air on the western side of
the stubborn surface ridge cuts into the showers.  MOS guidance
looks reasonable for both highs Thursday afternoon and lows tonight.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

There is a chance of rain showers from late tonight through
tomorrow afternoon as a trough swings through the northern US.
Instability still looks very limited across central and
northeastern MO, therefore no thunder is currently forecast.

Warming trend still looks on track for Friday through Sunday due
to an upper ridge building overhead. Sunday looks particularly
warm because surface winds will have turned southerly to
southwesterly around the back side of an elongated surface high.
Another low pressure system will approach the region early next
week, bringing a chance of rain from Monday through Tuesday.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

VFR conditions expected to continue as high pressure ridge remains
anchored from the Great Lakes to central Arkansas. Slight chance
that a shower may impact KUIN late tomorrow - but not confident
enough to add lower ceiling or precipitation at this time due to
dry low levels of the atmosphere.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions to continue.

CVKING

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     46  65  53  73 /   5  20  10   5
Quincy          43  62  50  70 /  10  40  10   5
Columbia        46  67  52  75 /  10  30  10   5
Jefferson City  45  68  50  76 /  10  20  10   5
Salem           42  62  49  69 /   0  10  10   5
Farmington      40  63  48  72 /   5  10  10   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 221928
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
228 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Another day with abundant sunshine across the area with an upper
level ridge axis centered across the Mississippi valley region.
Surface ridge has shifted off to the east and we saw a return to a
southeast wind last night and today across the area. Temperatures
were ranging from the low 60s east to low 70s west.

Forecast will focus on shower/thunderstorm chances late tonight
into Thursday, the significant warm up for Friday through the
weekend, and the chance of showers and thunderstorms returning for
Monday-Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Upper level ridge currently in place over the area will be quick
to exit to the east tonight with shortwave energy pushing across
the area late tonight into Thursday. The shortwave will bring
increased cloud cover and a chance of showers/isolated thunder,
mainly to the western CWA with decreasing moisture availability as
you head further east. There will be a lower temperature range
tonight/Thursday than we have seen the past couple of days with
increasing cloud cover as the shortwave moves in. The coolest
readings will be over the eastern CWA which will see the onset of
the cloud cover the latest and will hold on to the cloud cover the
longest on Thursday. This won`t be a big rainmaker, even for the
western CWA where the higher pops exist as this will be a quick
moving system and moisture content looks to be lacking.
Instability looks to be enough to support some isolated thunder in
the far western CWA, but no severe storms are expected.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Rain chances will come to an end by Thursday night and another
upper level ridge will begin to build back into the area from the
west. This ridge will be more amplified and will linger a bit
longer across the area from Friday through the weekend, also
advecting in some low level fairly warm air. Looks like the
extended init tools may be slightly cool Saturday and Sunday and
have adjusted slightly higher. Have continued to include current
record highs for the period Friday-Sunday in the climate section
below as a reference, but it appears we are still going to be shy
of the records at this point.

Ridge will begin to shift off to the east Sunday night and Monday
with a return to southwest flow aloft and a good Gulf moisture
feed into the area in the lower levels ahead of the next trough.
This will set up a much better opportunity for widespread
showers/thunderstorms heading into Monday night/Tuesday. New ECMWF
bring main upper level energy into the area Tuesday night and
continues convective precipitation chances then as well, while GFS
pushes this system through more progressively during the day
Tuesday. For now will leave things dry for Tuesday, but we may
need to start adding pops for Tuesday night if this trend continues.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...Surface high pressure is over
the great lakes region early this afternoon. Behind the high,
south to southeasterly winds are occurring and some scattered
cumulus clouds are spreading east into the area. These cumulus clouds
will dissipated around sunset with just scattered high clouds
over the area this evening.

Overnight into Thursday morning, mid level clouds will increase
from west to east as an upper level disturbance pushes across the
plains and into the region. A few light showers will be possible
around the Joplin area Thursday morning. A very dry airmass is
currently in place across much of the area, and this system will
not pull a lot of moisture into the area. Therefore, the rain
chances will really start to decrease as the system moves east
into the drier air closer to the Springfield and Branson areas.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Wise
CLIMATE...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KLSX 221743
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1243 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Broad surface ridge extending from the upper Great Lakes into the
Ozarks will bring the FA another sunny and dry autumn day.
Intensification of ridge over the past 24 hours has brought a bit
of cooler air to the region, which should result in afternoon
temps about 5 degrees cooler than those of yesterday.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

There is a chance of rain showers from late tonight through
tomorrow afternoon as a trough swings through the northern US.
Instability still looks very limited across central and
northeastern MO, therefore no thunder is currently forecast.

Warming trend still looks on track for Friday through Sunday due
to an upper ridge building overhead. Sunday looks particularly
warm because surface winds will have turned southerly to
southwesterly around the back side of an elongated surface high.
Another low pressure system will approach the region early next
week, bringing a chance of rain from Monday through Tuesday.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

VFR conditions expected to continue as high pressure ridge remains
anchored from the Great Lakes to central Arkansas. Slight chance
that a shower may impact KUIN late tomorrow - but not confident
enough to add lower ceiling or precipitation at this time due to
dry low levels of the atmosphere.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions to continue.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 221743
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1243 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Broad surface ridge extending from the upper Great Lakes into the
Ozarks will bring the FA another sunny and dry autumn day.
Intensification of ridge over the past 24 hours has brought a bit
of cooler air to the region, which should result in afternoon
temps about 5 degrees cooler than those of yesterday.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

There is a chance of rain showers from late tonight through
tomorrow afternoon as a trough swings through the northern US.
Instability still looks very limited across central and
northeastern MO, therefore no thunder is currently forecast.

Warming trend still looks on track for Friday through Sunday due
to an upper ridge building overhead. Sunday looks particularly
warm because surface winds will have turned southerly to
southwesterly around the back side of an elongated surface high.
Another low pressure system will approach the region early next
week, bringing a chance of rain from Monday through Tuesday.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

VFR conditions expected to continue as high pressure ridge remains
anchored from the Great Lakes to central Arkansas. Slight chance
that a shower may impact KUIN late tomorrow - but not confident
enough to add lower ceiling or precipitation at this time due to
dry low levels of the atmosphere.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions to continue.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 221735
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1235 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Thursday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A sfc ridge axis has passed east of the area with light winds from
the e-ese overnight. Looks like a pretty quiet day weather wise
with continued pleasant autumn conditions.

A shortwave over the Rockies will move into the eastern
Plains/Corn Belt region by 12z Thu. Moisture return ahead of the
system is sparse right up until the shortwave passage Thursday
morning, so deeper moisture is really not present very long while
stronger lift is present. Expect just some light and/or brief
precip, with the best overall chances and amounts over the western
and northern cwfa.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A high amplitude and somewhat progressive mid level flow pattern
will continue over the CONUS late in the week with a large upper
ridge moving from the Rockies into the Plains Fri-Sunday with
unseasonably warm temperatures. High temperatures well up into the
70s and some 80s seem like a good bet for a few days Fri-Mon.

Medium range guidance in general brings a shortwave and associated
sfc front into the region late Mon/Tue. The ECMWF is stronger
versus the GFS and GFS ensembles with this system, but in general
the timing is about the same (GFS just a bit slower and with less
qpf). Carrying the highest rain/tstm chances for Mon night for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...Surface high pressure is over
the great lakes region early this afternoon. Behind the high,
south to southeasterly winds are occurring and some scattered
cumulus clouds are spreading east into the area. These cumulus clouds
will dissipated around sunset with just scattered high clouds
over the area this evening.

Overnight into Thursday morning, mid level clouds will increase
from west to east as an upper level disturbance pushes across the
plains and into the region. A few light showers will be possible
around the Joplin area Thursday morning. A very dry airmass is
currently in place across much of the area, and this system will
not pull a lot of moisture into the area. Therefore, the rain
chances will really start to decrease as the system moves east
into the drier air closer to the Springfield and Branson areas.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Wise
CLIMATE...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 221735
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1235 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Thursday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A sfc ridge axis has passed east of the area with light winds from
the e-ese overnight. Looks like a pretty quiet day weather wise
with continued pleasant autumn conditions.

A shortwave over the Rockies will move into the eastern
Plains/Corn Belt region by 12z Thu. Moisture return ahead of the
system is sparse right up until the shortwave passage Thursday
morning, so deeper moisture is really not present very long while
stronger lift is present. Expect just some light and/or brief
precip, with the best overall chances and amounts over the western
and northern cwfa.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A high amplitude and somewhat progressive mid level flow pattern
will continue over the CONUS late in the week with a large upper
ridge moving from the Rockies into the Plains Fri-Sunday with
unseasonably warm temperatures. High temperatures well up into the
70s and some 80s seem like a good bet for a few days Fri-Mon.

Medium range guidance in general brings a shortwave and associated
sfc front into the region late Mon/Tue. The ECMWF is stronger
versus the GFS and GFS ensembles with this system, but in general
the timing is about the same (GFS just a bit slower and with less
qpf). Carrying the highest rain/tstm chances for Mon night for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...Surface high pressure is over
the great lakes region early this afternoon. Behind the high,
south to southeasterly winds are occurring and some scattered
cumulus clouds are spreading east into the area. These cumulus clouds
will dissipated around sunset with just scattered high clouds
over the area this evening.

Overnight into Thursday morning, mid level clouds will increase
from west to east as an upper level disturbance pushes across the
plains and into the region. A few light showers will be possible
around the Joplin area Thursday morning. A very dry airmass is
currently in place across much of the area, and this system will
not pull a lot of moisture into the area. Therefore, the rain
chances will really start to decrease as the system moves east
into the drier air closer to the Springfield and Branson areas.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Wise
CLIMATE...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KEAX 221732
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1232 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Another nice day is in store for much of the region, despite the
threat of a few sprinkles during the day. Much of the focus for rain
over the next 36 hours will be on the late night through Thursday
hours as a weak front moves through. Satellite imagery shows us a
rather messy amplified pattern across the Nation with a shortwave
ridge residing across the Plains States with its axis just to our
west. A trough is noted shifting through the mountainous west and is
poised to to displace the ridge and bring some stormy weather later
tonight into Thursday as it pushes the weak cold front through our
area.

Weather for today will be rather nice, with pleasant conditions
expected into the evening hours. With the ridge in place expect
temperatures to make another run at highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s
today thanks to continued southeast winds at the surface an a
southwest flow aloft. However, that self same southwest flow aloft
may induce a few clouds today with some marginal support for
sprinkles --weak isentropic lift along the saturated 295K to 300K
surfaces--. Boundary layer moisture will be a little sparse to begin
the day, but as the surface high slides off to the east higher dew
points are expected to advect in ahead of a weak cold front that
will sweep through starting Thursday morning. This will set the
region up for a late night/early morning rain event as the weak
front approaches and then sweeps through. Widespread precipitation
should begin to encroach from the west late this evening, with the
best potential for widespread rain looking to hold off to around and
after midnight. Given the progressive nature of the front, and
precipitable water values only in the 1.4 inch range, heavy flooding
rains are not anticipated. Otherwise, as storms progress east early
Thursday the potential for any severe weather looks nonexistent as
instability looks insufficient to support strong storms, but may be
enough for embedded thunderstorms through the event. Any continuing
stormy activity should exit our area Thursday afternoon.

Conditions in the wake of the weak cold front will be rather nice as
temperatures Thursday are still expected to remain above seasonally
normal values. In fact, temperatures will begin to climb in the
following days as a large ridge slowly shifts east through the
weekend. This will likely push temperatures well into the 70s over
the weekend with dry conditions prevailing.

Next chance at storms, and more seasonal temperatures, will arrive
early next work week as another shortwave trough lifts northeast across
the Plains States. Precipitation chances are a bit low confidence at
this time given the large model discrepancies, but what they do agree
on is cooler temperatures; with readings ranging from highs in the 60s
to low in the 40s. However, this does not currently look to include
temperatures cold enough to induce a frost or freeze, so it`s looking
likely that a killing frost will have to wait till November.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Main challenge for the 18Z forecast cycle is timing of precipitation into
the TAF sites. In general...prefer the scenario painted by the most
recent HRRR and local WRF run which hold off precipitation until 06z
or later. Should see MVFR conditions linger well into the early morning
hours tomorrow until conditions improve towards the end of the
forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Mitchell







000
FXUS63 KEAX 221732
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1232 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Another nice day is in store for much of the region, despite the
threat of a few sprinkles during the day. Much of the focus for rain
over the next 36 hours will be on the late night through Thursday
hours as a weak front moves through. Satellite imagery shows us a
rather messy amplified pattern across the Nation with a shortwave
ridge residing across the Plains States with its axis just to our
west. A trough is noted shifting through the mountainous west and is
poised to to displace the ridge and bring some stormy weather later
tonight into Thursday as it pushes the weak cold front through our
area.

Weather for today will be rather nice, with pleasant conditions
expected into the evening hours. With the ridge in place expect
temperatures to make another run at highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s
today thanks to continued southeast winds at the surface an a
southwest flow aloft. However, that self same southwest flow aloft
may induce a few clouds today with some marginal support for
sprinkles --weak isentropic lift along the saturated 295K to 300K
surfaces--. Boundary layer moisture will be a little sparse to begin
the day, but as the surface high slides off to the east higher dew
points are expected to advect in ahead of a weak cold front that
will sweep through starting Thursday morning. This will set the
region up for a late night/early morning rain event as the weak
front approaches and then sweeps through. Widespread precipitation
should begin to encroach from the west late this evening, with the
best potential for widespread rain looking to hold off to around and
after midnight. Given the progressive nature of the front, and
precipitable water values only in the 1.4 inch range, heavy flooding
rains are not anticipated. Otherwise, as storms progress east early
Thursday the potential for any severe weather looks nonexistent as
instability looks insufficient to support strong storms, but may be
enough for embedded thunderstorms through the event. Any continuing
stormy activity should exit our area Thursday afternoon.

Conditions in the wake of the weak cold front will be rather nice as
temperatures Thursday are still expected to remain above seasonally
normal values. In fact, temperatures will begin to climb in the
following days as a large ridge slowly shifts east through the
weekend. This will likely push temperatures well into the 70s over
the weekend with dry conditions prevailing.

Next chance at storms, and more seasonal temperatures, will arrive
early next work week as another shortwave trough lifts northeast across
the Plains States. Precipitation chances are a bit low confidence at
this time given the large model discrepancies, but what they do agree
on is cooler temperatures; with readings ranging from highs in the 60s
to low in the 40s. However, this does not currently look to include
temperatures cold enough to induce a frost or freeze, so it`s looking
likely that a killing frost will have to wait till November.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Main challenge for the 18Z forecast cycle is timing of precipitation into
the TAF sites. In general...prefer the scenario painted by the most
recent HRRR and local WRF run which hold off precipitation until 06z
or later. Should see MVFR conditions linger well into the early morning
hours tomorrow until conditions improve towards the end of the
forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Mitchell







000
FXUS63 KLSX 221201
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
701 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Broad surface ridge extending from the upper Great Lakes into the
Ozarks will bring the FA another sunny and dry autumn day.
Intensification of ridge over the past 24 hours has brought a bit
of cooler air to the region, which should result in afternoon
temps about 5 degrees cooler than those of yesterday.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

There is a chance of rain showers from late tonight through
tomorrow afternoon as a trough swings through the northern US.
Instability still looks very limited across central and
northeastern MO, therefore no thunder is currently forecast.

Warming trend still looks on track for Friday through Sunday due
to an upper ridge building overhead. Sunday looks particularly
warm because surface winds will have turned southerly to
southwesterly around the back side of an elongated surface high.
Another low pressure system will approach the region early next
week, bringing a chance of rain from Monday through Tuesday.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

VFR weather will continue across the region thanks to sprawling and
slow moving surface ridge that extends from the upper Great Lakes
into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. Much like
yesterday, the cool dry airmass associated with the ridge should
mean Little if any cloudiness, with east-southeast surface winds
aob 10kts.

Specifics for KSTL: Clear skies and east-southeast winds aob 8 kts
are forecast for the next 24 hours.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 221156
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
656 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Thursday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A sfc ridge axis has passed east of the area with light winds from
the e-ese overnight. Looks like a pretty quiet day weather wise
with continued pleasant autumn conditions.

A shortwave over the Rockies will move into the eastern
Plains/Corn Belt region by 12z Thu. Moisture return ahead of the
system is sparse right up until the shortwave passage Thursday
morning, so deeper moisture is really not present very long while
stronger lift is present. Expect just some light and/or brief
precip, with the best overall chances and amounts over the western
and northern cwfa.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A high amplitude and somewhat progressive mid level flow pattern
will continue over the CONUS late in the week with a large upper
ridge moving from the Rockies into the Plains Fri-Sunday with
unseasonably warm temperatures. High temperatures well up into the
70s and some 80s seem like a good bet for a few days Fri-Mon.

Medium range guidance in general brings a shortwave and associated
sfc front into the region late Mon/Tue. The ECMWF is stronger
versus the GFS and GFS ensembles with this system, but in general
the timing is about the same (GFS just a bit slower and with less
qpf). Carrying the highest rain/tstm chances for Mon night for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 650 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

An upper level ridge and surface high pressure over the region was
allowing for VFR flight conditions across the region this morning.
Some scattered clouds around 4kft along with broken high cloud
cover will begin to move over the region this afternoon and remain
through the overnight hours.

Some widely scatted showers will be possible during the late
morning hours mainly for the Joplin aerodrome, however, limited
coverage and uncertain timing kept a mention of showers out of
the forecast for now.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch
CLIMATE...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KEAX 221133
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
633 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Another nice day is in store for much of the region, despite the
threat of a few sprinkles during the day. Much of the focus for rain
over the next 36 hours will be on the late night through Thursday
hours as a weak front moves through. Satellite imagery shows us a
rather messy amplified pattern across the Nation with a shortwave
ridge residing across the Plains States with its axis just to our
west. A trough is noted shifting through the mountainous west and is
poised to to displace the ridge and bring some stormy weather later
tonight into Thursday as it pushes the weak cold front through our
area.

Weather for today will be rather nice, with pleasant conditions
expected into the evening hours. With the ridge in place expect
temperatures to make another run at highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s
today thanks to continued southeast winds at the surface an a
southwest flow aloft. However, that self same southwest flow aloft
may induce a few clouds today with some marginal support for
sprinkles --weak isentropic lift along the saturated 295K to 300K
surfaces--. Boundary layer moisture will be a little sparse to begin
the day, but as the surface high slides off to the east higher dew
points are expected to advect in ahead of a weak cold front that
will sweep through starting Thursday morning. This will set the
region up for a late night/early morning rain event as the weak
front approaches and then sweeps through. Widespread precipitation
should begin to encroach from the west late this evening, with the
best potential for widespread rain looking to hold off to around and
after midnight. Given the progressive nature of the front, and
precipitable water values only in the 1.4 inch range, heavy flooding
rains are not anticipated. Otherwise, as storms progress east early
Thursday the potential for any severe weather looks nonexistent as
instability looks insufficient to support strong storms, but may be
enough for embedded thunderstorms through the event. Any continuing
stormy activity should exit our area Thursday afternoon.

Conditions in the wake of the weak cold front will be rather nice as
temperatures Thursday are still expected to remain above seasonally
normal values. In fact, temperatures will begin to climb in the
following days as a large ridge slowly shifts east through the
weekend. This will likely push temperatures well into the 70s over
the weekend with dry conditions prevailing.

Next chance at storms, and more seasonal temperatures, will arrive
early next work week as another shortwave trough lifts northeast across
the Plains States. Precipitation chances are a bit low confidence at
this time given the large model discrepancies, but what they do agree
on is cooler temperatures; with readings ranging from highs in the 60s
to low in the 40s. However, this does not currently look to include
temperatures cold enough to induce a frost or freeze, so it`s looking
likely that a killing frost will have to wait till November.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Current conditions are just barley staying in the VFR range early
this morning as low clouds have developed across the Missouri-Kansas
state-line early this morning. Some showers are possible with this
mornings cloud cover, but nothing that should impact the flight
category. Widespread stormy activity is expected to spread across the
region from west to east late tonight ahead of and along a weak front
that will sweep through. Have the onset of rain starting after 04Z
at KSTJ, spreading south into the Kansas City terminals around 05Z to
06Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KLSX 221009
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
509 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Broad surface ridge extending from the upper Great Lakes into the
Ozarks will bring the FA another sunny and dry autumn day.
Intensification of ridge over the past 24 hours has brought a bit
of cooler air to the region, which should result in afternoon
temps about 5 degrees cooler than those of yesterday.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

There is a chance of rain showers from late tonight through
tomorrow afternoon as a trough swings through the northern US.
Instability still looks very limited across central and
northeastern MO, therefore no thunder is currently forecast.

Warming trend still looks on track for Friday through Sunday due
to an upper ridge building overhead. Sunday looks particularly
warm because surface winds will have turned southerly to
southwesterly around the back side of an elongated surface high.
Another low pressure system will approach the region early next
week, bringing a chance of rain from Monday through Tuesday.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Surface high pressure extending from the southern Great Lakes
region through the Mid-Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley regions
will slowly move southeastward through Wednesday evening. Surface
winds will generally be easterly tonight then become east-
southeast on Wednesday. Skies will remainn clear expect for some
local river fog possible for KSUS and KCPS where visibilities may
drop to 2 to 5 SM.

Specifics for KSTL: Northeast surface winds will become easterly
by daybreak 3 to 5 kts. Winds will slight shift to the southeast
by late morning or mid-day. Wind speeds will be under 5 kts
tonight and then 7 to 9 kts late Wednesday morning through early afternoon.
Skies will remain clear.

Przybylinski

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 221009
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
509 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Broad surface ridge extending from the upper Great Lakes into the
Ozarks will bring the FA another sunny and dry autumn day.
Intensification of ridge over the past 24 hours has brought a bit
of cooler air to the region, which should result in afternoon
temps about 5 degrees cooler than those of yesterday.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

There is a chance of rain showers from late tonight through
tomorrow afternoon as a trough swings through the northern US.
Instability still looks very limited across central and
northeastern MO, therefore no thunder is currently forecast.

Warming trend still looks on track for Friday through Sunday due
to an upper ridge building overhead. Sunday looks particularly
warm because surface winds will have turned southerly to
southwesterly around the back side of an elongated surface high.
Another low pressure system will approach the region early next
week, bringing a chance of rain from Monday through Tuesday.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Surface high pressure extending from the southern Great Lakes
region through the Mid-Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley regions
will slowly move southeastward through Wednesday evening. Surface
winds will generally be easterly tonight then become east-
southeast on Wednesday. Skies will remainn clear expect for some
local river fog possible for KSUS and KCPS where visibilities may
drop to 2 to 5 SM.

Specifics for KSTL: Northeast surface winds will become easterly
by daybreak 3 to 5 kts. Winds will slight shift to the southeast
by late morning or mid-day. Wind speeds will be under 5 kts
tonight and then 7 to 9 kts late Wednesday morning through early afternoon.
Skies will remain clear.

Przybylinski

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 220857
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
357 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Another nice day is in store for much of the region, despite the
threat of a few sprinkles during the day. Much of the focus for rain
over the next 36 hours will be on the late night through Thursday
hours as a weak front moves through. Satellite imagery shows us a
rather messy amplified pattern across the Nation with a shortwave
ridge residing across the Plains States with its axis just to our
west. A trough is noted shifting through the mountainous west and is
poised to to displace the ridge and bring some stormy weather later
tonight into Thursday as it pushes the weak cold front through our
area.

Weather for today will be rather nice, with pleasant conditions
expected into the evening hours. With the ridge in place expect
temperatures to make another run at highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s
today thanks to continued southeast winds at the surface an a
southwest flow aloft. However, that self same southwest flow aloft
may induce a few clouds today with some marginal support for
sprinkles --weak isentropic lift along the saturated 295K to 300K
surfaces--. Boundary layer moisture will be a little sparse to begin
the day, but as the surface high slides off to the east higher dew
points are expected to advect in ahead of a weak cold front that
will sweep through starting Thursday morning. This will set the
region up for a late night/early morning rain event as the weak
front approaches and then sweeps through. Widespread precipitation
should begin to encroach from the west late this evening, with the
best potential for widespread rain looking to hold off to around and
after midnight. Given the progressive nature of the front, and
precipitable water values only in the 1.4 inch range, heavy flooding
rains are not anticipated. Otherwise, as storms progress east early
Thursday the potential for any severe weather looks nonexistent as
instability looks insufficient to support strong storms, but may be
enough for embedded thunderstorms through the event. Any continuing
stormy activity should exit our area Thursday afternoon.

Conditions in the wake of the weak cold front will be rather nice as
temperatures Thursday are still expected to remain above seasonally
normal values. In fact, temperatures will begin to climb in the
following days as a large ridge slowly shifts east through the
weekend. This will likely push temperatures well into the 70s over
the weekend with dry conditions prevailing.

Next chance at storms, and more seasonal temperatures, will arrive
early next work week as another shortwave trough lifts northeast across
the Plains States. Precipitation chances are a bit low confidence at
this time given the large model discrepancies, but what they do agree
on is cooler temperatures; with readings ranging from highs in the 60s
to low in the 40s. However, this does not currently look to include
temperatures cold enough to induce a frost or freeze, so it`s looking
likely that a killing frost will have to wait till November.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Although chances for some very light rain at the terminals is
starting to shape up have kept VFR conditions through the entire
forecast period. Hi-res models indicate very spotty showery activity
near the aviation terminals, but forecast soundings indicate a rather
deep saturated later, which should indicate a good possibility for
some light rain. Not confident in the least that any rain will cause
visibility restrictions as it should remain very light. Cloud deck
should be around 3-4 kft, so will flirt with MVFR CIGs. Expect rain
chances to quickly end by noon, with the cloud deck perhaps becoming
more scattered through the day.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KSGF 220809
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
309 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Thursday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A sfc ridge axis has passed east of the area with light winds from
the e-ese overnight. Looks like a pretty quiet day weather wise
with continued pleasant autumn conditions.

A shortwave over the Rockies will move into the eastern
Plains/Corn Belt region by 12z Thu. Moisture return ahead of the
system is sparse right up until the shortwave passage Thursday
morning, so deeper moisture is really not present very long while
stronger lift is present. Expect just some light and/or brief
precip, with the best overall chances and amounts over the western
and northern cwfa.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A high amplitude and somewhat progressive mid level flow pattern
will continue over the CONUS late in the week with a large upper
ridge moving from the Rockies into the Plains Fri-Sunday with
unseasonably warm temperatures. High temperatures well up into the
70s and some 80s seem like a good bet for a few days Fri-Mon.

Medium range guidance in general brings a shortwave and associated
sfc front into the region late Mon/Tue. The ECMWF is stronger
versus the GFS and GFS ensembles with this system, but in general
the timing is about the same (GFS just a bit slower and with less
qpf). Carrying the highest rain/tstm chances for Mon night for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday evening. There is a
low potential that MVFR fog could develop late tonight around
Branson. We elected not to include fog in the TAF given the low
confidence and the likelihood that any fog will be very shallow
and patchy. Mid and high level clouds will increase on Wednesday
as an upper level trough moves out into the Plains. Winds will
generally remain light out of the southeast. However there may be
a period of brisk and gusty winds around Springfield during the
mid to late morning hours.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Schaumann
CLIMATE...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KEAX 220511
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1211 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 417 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Tonight - Thursday:

This period will bring an end to our 8+ day dry spell. Weak mid
level warm air advection could generate some sprinkles very late
tonight and Wednesday morning. Much better rain chances arrive late
Wednesday night.

Upper ridge axis from MN through east TX will translate eastward
while progressive shortwave over the intermountain region lifts
northeast and through the Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley. Surface
ridge will give way to a gradual shift to a southerly flow by
Wednesday night. Increasing moist warm air advection aided by a
disorganized disturbance now over West TX will combine to generate a
band of convection which will translate from west to east across the
CWA beginning late Wednesday night and ending Thursday afternoon.
Weak elevated instability, MUCAPES < 400J/kg, will likely support a
few embedded thunderstorms.

A weak frontal boundary will accompany the convection but will mark
mark nothing more than a wind shift from south to southwest.
Thursday temperatures will be defined by amount of residual cloud
cover and expect slightly warmer than average temperatures.

Friday - Sunday:

The upper ridge will quickly rebuild from the Rockies into the
Plains with a corresponding influx of warmer h8 temperatures of +14C
to +18C threatening to send max temperatures to 80 over western MO.
See no chance of precipitation during this period.

Monday - Tuesday:

Medium range models are on the same track for the start of next week
with a well-defined upper trough tracking east through the Plains
and MS Valley. Model trends seem reasonable enough to raise PoPs.
This system will have a stronger cold front associated with it and
the post frontal airmass will likely support below average
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Although chances for some very light rain at the terminals is
starting to shape up have kept VFR conditions through the entire
forecast period. Hi-res models indicate very spotty showery activity
near the aviation terminals, but forecast soundings indicate a rather
deep saturated later, which should indicate a good possibility for
some light rain. Not confident in the least that any rain will cause
visibility restrictions as it sould remain very light. Cloud deck
should be around 3-4 kft, so will flirt with MVFR CIGs. Expect rain
chances to quickly end by noon, with the cloud deck perhaps becoming
more scattered through the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 220511
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1211 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 417 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Tonight - Thursday:

This period will bring an end to our 8+ day dry spell. Weak mid
level warm air advection could generate some sprinkles very late
tonight and Wednesday morning. Much better rain chances arrive late
Wednesday night.

Upper ridge axis from MN through east TX will translate eastward
while progressive shortwave over the intermountain region lifts
northeast and through the Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley. Surface
ridge will give way to a gradual shift to a southerly flow by
Wednesday night. Increasing moist warm air advection aided by a
disorganized disturbance now over West TX will combine to generate a
band of convection which will translate from west to east across the
CWA beginning late Wednesday night and ending Thursday afternoon.
Weak elevated instability, MUCAPES < 400J/kg, will likely support a
few embedded thunderstorms.

A weak frontal boundary will accompany the convection but will mark
mark nothing more than a wind shift from south to southwest.
Thursday temperatures will be defined by amount of residual cloud
cover and expect slightly warmer than average temperatures.

Friday - Sunday:

The upper ridge will quickly rebuild from the Rockies into the
Plains with a corresponding influx of warmer h8 temperatures of +14C
to +18C threatening to send max temperatures to 80 over western MO.
See no chance of precipitation during this period.

Monday - Tuesday:

Medium range models are on the same track for the start of next week
with a well-defined upper trough tracking east through the Plains
and MS Valley. Model trends seem reasonable enough to raise PoPs.
This system will have a stronger cold front associated with it and
the post frontal airmass will likely support below average
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Although chances for some very light rain at the terminals is
starting to shape up have kept VFR conditions through the entire
forecast period. Hi-res models indicate very spotty showery activity
near the aviation terminals, but forecast soundings indicate a rather
deep saturated later, which should indicate a good possibility for
some light rain. Not confident in the least that any rain will cause
visibility restrictions as it sould remain very light. Cloud deck
should be around 3-4 kft, so will flirt with MVFR CIGs. Expect rain
chances to quickly end by noon, with the cloud deck perhaps becoming
more scattered through the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KSGF 220458
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1158 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Surface high pressure was located across the region today with an
upper level ridge shifting eastward over the Plains and into the
Mississippi Valley. Once the morning fog burned off, there has
been abundant sunshine and has aided in temperatures reaching the
low to mid 70s so far this afternoon.

The ridge will be progressive to the east with a shortwave
expected to affect the area on Wednesday night into Thursday
offering our next shot at some precipitation, before a more
amplified ridge builds in for the last part of the week and into
the weekend.

Outside of the precipitation chances on Thursday and then again
early next week, our main focus will be with how high the
temperatures can get as the ridge builds in late this week. It
will certainly be unseasonably warm with 850mb temperatures
reaching the mid to upper teens.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Should not see the fog like we did last night, especially over
southwest Missouri and extreme southeast Kansas which wound up
getting dense fog, but would not be surprised to see some light
fog with visibilities down in the 3 to 5 mile range during the
overnight and early morning. Upper level ridge axis will move
overhead with surface ridge shifting east. We will see a return to
a southeast wind with temperatures returning to the mid 60s east
and mid 70s west during the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Upper level ridge axis will exit to the east as quickly as it
moved in on Wednesday night, with shortwave energy moving into the
area late Wednesday night into Thursday. Instability may be enough
for some isolated thunder, but not expecting anything severe with
this quick moving system. Precipitation chances will begin
Wednesday night and continue into Thursday, but should exit to the
east by Thursday evening.

A more amplified upper level ridge will begin to build into the
area on Friday and continue into the weekend. 850/925 mb
temperatures will be quite warm for this time of year and our
upper air climatological study would support surface temperatures
this weekend in the upper 70s to low 80s. This will likely not
break any records, but are getting close to record highs for this
time of year.  (See climate section below for records).

Upper level trough and shortwave energy is expected to move across
the area Monday into Tuesday and will bring a chance of showers
and thunderstorms to the area. ECMWF is slightly slower with this
system than the GFS in clearing the QPF to the east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday evening. There is a
low potential that MVFR fog could develop late tonight around
Branson. We elected not to include fog in the TAF given the low
confidence and the likelihood that any fog will be very shallow
and patchy. Mid and high level clouds will increase on Wednesday
as an upper level trough moves out into the Plains. Winds will
generally remain light out of the southeast. However there may be
a period of brisk and gusty winds around Springfield during the
mid to late morning hours.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann
CLIMATE...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 220458
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1158 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Surface high pressure was located across the region today with an
upper level ridge shifting eastward over the Plains and into the
Mississippi Valley. Once the morning fog burned off, there has
been abundant sunshine and has aided in temperatures reaching the
low to mid 70s so far this afternoon.

The ridge will be progressive to the east with a shortwave
expected to affect the area on Wednesday night into Thursday
offering our next shot at some precipitation, before a more
amplified ridge builds in for the last part of the week and into
the weekend.

Outside of the precipitation chances on Thursday and then again
early next week, our main focus will be with how high the
temperatures can get as the ridge builds in late this week. It
will certainly be unseasonably warm with 850mb temperatures
reaching the mid to upper teens.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Should not see the fog like we did last night, especially over
southwest Missouri and extreme southeast Kansas which wound up
getting dense fog, but would not be surprised to see some light
fog with visibilities down in the 3 to 5 mile range during the
overnight and early morning. Upper level ridge axis will move
overhead with surface ridge shifting east. We will see a return to
a southeast wind with temperatures returning to the mid 60s east
and mid 70s west during the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Upper level ridge axis will exit to the east as quickly as it
moved in on Wednesday night, with shortwave energy moving into the
area late Wednesday night into Thursday. Instability may be enough
for some isolated thunder, but not expecting anything severe with
this quick moving system. Precipitation chances will begin
Wednesday night and continue into Thursday, but should exit to the
east by Thursday evening.

A more amplified upper level ridge will begin to build into the
area on Friday and continue into the weekend. 850/925 mb
temperatures will be quite warm for this time of year and our
upper air climatological study would support surface temperatures
this weekend in the upper 70s to low 80s. This will likely not
break any records, but are getting close to record highs for this
time of year.  (See climate section below for records).

Upper level trough and shortwave energy is expected to move across
the area Monday into Tuesday and will bring a chance of showers
and thunderstorms to the area. ECMWF is slightly slower with this
system than the GFS in clearing the QPF to the east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday evening. There is a
low potential that MVFR fog could develop late tonight around
Branson. We elected not to include fog in the TAF given the low
confidence and the likelihood that any fog will be very shallow
and patchy. Mid and high level clouds will increase on Wednesday
as an upper level trough moves out into the Plains. Winds will
generally remain light out of the southeast. However there may be
a period of brisk and gusty winds around Springfield during the
mid to late morning hours.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann
CLIMATE...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KLSX 220446
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1146 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Surface ridge extending from Wisconsin south-southwest through the
Mississippi Valley into the southeast Plains will drift to the
southeast tonight.  The upper level ridge will continue to build
overhead keeping the sky clear.  Expect light and variable surface
wind this evening to turn to the east southeast overnight as the
surface ridge drifts by.  With good radiational cooling conditions
for at least part of the night, expect temperatures to dip down to
near or slightly below this morning`s lows.  Used a combination of
consensus MOS and MAV for forecast lows tomorrow morning.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

(Wednesday through Friday)

Dry weather is expected through Wednesday evening as a upper ridge
currently over the Plains will move across the area.  Then will
continue a slight chance for showers late on Wednesday night over
northeast and central Missouri as well as west central Illinois as
the GFS/NAM/ECMWF are all in good agreement that a upper trough will
approach the area.  This trough will move quickly across the area on
Thursday, though moisture will be limited with this system, so have
kept rain chances associated with this system in area mainly north
of I-70 where best ascent will be. Then subsidence will begin to
build into the area behind the trough, so expect dry weather to
return to the area for Thursday night and Friday.

Went toward the warmer GFS MOS for highs the next few days which
matches well with mixing down 900mb temperatures.

(Saturday through next Tuesday)

Weekend still looks dry and warm for late October as both the GFS
and ECMWF showing a large upper ridge building over the area.  850mb
temperatures will climb to near 15C as surface winds become
southerly by Sunday. Both the GFS and ECMWF MOS guidance support
high temperatures well into the 70s Saturday into Monday. By early
next week, the latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF are in good agreement
that a large trough will be moving through the Plains into the
Midwest with the attendant cold front reaching Missouri and
Illinois by Monday night. Will carry just low chances for showers
as there have been run-to-run model continuity issues which will
ultimately determine the timing of the rain early next week.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Surface high pressure extending from the southern Great Lakes
region through the Mid-Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley regions
will slowly move southeastward through Wednesday evening. Surface
winds will generally be easterly tonight then become east-
southeast on Wednesday. Skies will remainn clear expect for some
local river fog possible for KSUS and KCPS where visibilities may
drop to 2 to 5 SM.

Specifics for KSTL: Northeast surface winds will become easterly
by daybreak 3 to 5 kts. Winds will slight shift to the southeast
by late morning or mid-day. Wind speeds will be under 5 kts
tonight and then 7 to 9 kts late Wednesday morning through early afternoon.
Skies will remain clear.

Przybylinski

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 220446
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1146 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Surface ridge extending from Wisconsin south-southwest through the
Mississippi Valley into the southeast Plains will drift to the
southeast tonight.  The upper level ridge will continue to build
overhead keeping the sky clear.  Expect light and variable surface
wind this evening to turn to the east southeast overnight as the
surface ridge drifts by.  With good radiational cooling conditions
for at least part of the night, expect temperatures to dip down to
near or slightly below this morning`s lows.  Used a combination of
consensus MOS and MAV for forecast lows tomorrow morning.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

(Wednesday through Friday)

Dry weather is expected through Wednesday evening as a upper ridge
currently over the Plains will move across the area.  Then will
continue a slight chance for showers late on Wednesday night over
northeast and central Missouri as well as west central Illinois as
the GFS/NAM/ECMWF are all in good agreement that a upper trough will
approach the area.  This trough will move quickly across the area on
Thursday, though moisture will be limited with this system, so have
kept rain chances associated with this system in area mainly north
of I-70 where best ascent will be. Then subsidence will begin to
build into the area behind the trough, so expect dry weather to
return to the area for Thursday night and Friday.

Went toward the warmer GFS MOS for highs the next few days which
matches well with mixing down 900mb temperatures.

(Saturday through next Tuesday)

Weekend still looks dry and warm for late October as both the GFS
and ECMWF showing a large upper ridge building over the area.  850mb
temperatures will climb to near 15C as surface winds become
southerly by Sunday. Both the GFS and ECMWF MOS guidance support
high temperatures well into the 70s Saturday into Monday. By early
next week, the latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF are in good agreement
that a large trough will be moving through the Plains into the
Midwest with the attendant cold front reaching Missouri and
Illinois by Monday night. Will carry just low chances for showers
as there have been run-to-run model continuity issues which will
ultimately determine the timing of the rain early next week.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Surface high pressure extending from the southern Great Lakes
region through the Mid-Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley regions
will slowly move southeastward through Wednesday evening. Surface
winds will generally be easterly tonight then become east-
southeast on Wednesday. Skies will remainn clear expect for some
local river fog possible for KSUS and KCPS where visibilities may
drop to 2 to 5 SM.

Specifics for KSTL: Northeast surface winds will become easterly
by daybreak 3 to 5 kts. Winds will slight shift to the southeast
by late morning or mid-day. Wind speeds will be under 5 kts
tonight and then 7 to 9 kts late Wednesday morning through early afternoon.
Skies will remain clear.

Przybylinski

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 220005
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
705 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Surface ridge extending from Wisconsin south-southwest through the
Mississippi Valley into the southeast Plains will drift to the
southeast tonight.  The upper level ridge will continue to build
overhead keeping the sky clear.  Expect light and variable surface
wind this evening to turn to the east southeast overnight as the
surface ridge drifts by.  With good radiational cooling conditions
for at least part of the night, expect temperatures to dip down to
near or slightly below this morning`s lows.  Used a combination of
consensus MOS and MAV for forecast lows tomorrow morning.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

(Wednesday through Friday)

Dry weather is expected through Wednesday evening as a upper ridge
currently over the Plains will move across the area.  Then will
continue a slight chance for showers late on Wednesday night over
northeast and central Missouri as well as west central Illinois as
the GFS/NAM/ECMWF are all in good agreement that a upper trough will
approach the area.  This trough will move quickly across the area on
Thursday, though moisture will be limited with this system, so have
kept rain chances associated with this system in area mainly north
of I-70 where best ascent will be. Then subsidence will begin to
build into the area behind the trough, so expect dry weather to
return to the area for Thursday night and Friday.

Went toward the warmer GFS MOS for highs the next few days which
matches well with mixing down 900mb temperatures.

(Saturday through next Tuesday)

Weekend still looks dry and warm for late October as both the GFS
and ECMWF showing a large upper ridge building over the area.  850mb
temperatures will climb to near 15C as surface winds become
southerly by Sunday. Both the GFS and ECMWF MOS guidance support
high temperatures well into the 70s Saturday into Monday. By early
next week, the latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF are in good agreement
that a large trough will be moving through the Plains into the
Midwest with the attendant cold front reaching Missouri and
Illinois by Monday night. Will carry just low chances for showers
as there have been run-to-run model continuity issues which will
ultimately determine the timing of the rain early next week.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

High pressure over Wisconsin is forecast to build southward into
the Ohio Valley region by midday on Wednesday. Surface winds will
remain easterly through Wednesday afternoon. Patchy fog along the
rivers may bring fog to SUS and CPS after 0900 UTC.

Specifics for KSTL: Northeast wind 5 kts will diminish to light
and variable. Easterly wind tomorrow will gradually become
southeast by midday with speeds of 5 to 7 kts.

Przybylinski

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 212324
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
624 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Surface high pressure was located across the region today with an
upper level ridge shifting eastward over the Plains and into the
Mississippi Valley. Once the morning fog burned off, there has
been abundant sunshine and has aided in temperatures reaching the
low to mid 70s so far this afternoon.

The ridge will be progressive to the east with a shortwave
expected to affect the area on Wednesday night into Thursday
offering our next shot at some precipitation, before a more
amplified ridge builds in for the last part of the week and into
the weekend.

Outside of the precipitation chances on Thursday and then again
early next week, our main focus will be with how high the
temperatures can get as the ridge builds in late this week. It
will certainly be unseasonably warm with 850mb temperatures
reaching the mid to upper teens.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Should not see the fog like we did last night, especially over
southwest Missouri and extreme southeast Kansas which wound up
getting dense fog, but would not be surprised to see some light
fog with visibilities down in the 3 to 5 mile range during the
overnight and early morning. Upper level ridge axis will move
overhead with surface ridge shifting east. We will see a return to
a southeast wind with temperatures returning to the mid 60s east
and mid 70s west during the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Upper level ridge axis will exit to the east as quickly as it
moved in on Wednesday night, with shortwave energy moving into the
area late Wednesday night into Thursday. Instability may be enough
for some isolated thunder, but not expecting anything severe with
this quick moving system. Precipitation chances will begin
Wednesday night and continue into Thursday, but should exit to the
east by Thursday evening.

A more amplified upper level ridge will begin to build into the
area on Friday and continue into the weekend. 850/925 mb
temperatures will be quite warm for this time of year and our
upper air climatological study would support surface temperatures
this weekend in the upper 70s to low 80s. This will likely not
break any records, but are getting close to record highs for this
time of year.  (See climate section below for records).

Upper level trough and shortwave energy is expected to move across
the area Monday into Tuesday and will bring a chance of showers
and thunderstorms to the area. ECMWF is slightly slower with this
system than the GFS in clearing the QPF to the east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 619 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday. The UPS fog
forecasting technique indicates that fog potential is low for
tonight. We may also see an increase in clouds over portions of
southern Missouri starting late tonight...which would also inhibit
fog development. Light winds this evening will become light out of
the southeast on Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann
CLIMATE...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 212324
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
624 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Surface high pressure was located across the region today with an
upper level ridge shifting eastward over the Plains and into the
Mississippi Valley. Once the morning fog burned off, there has
been abundant sunshine and has aided in temperatures reaching the
low to mid 70s so far this afternoon.

The ridge will be progressive to the east with a shortwave
expected to affect the area on Wednesday night into Thursday
offering our next shot at some precipitation, before a more
amplified ridge builds in for the last part of the week and into
the weekend.

Outside of the precipitation chances on Thursday and then again
early next week, our main focus will be with how high the
temperatures can get as the ridge builds in late this week. It
will certainly be unseasonably warm with 850mb temperatures
reaching the mid to upper teens.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Should not see the fog like we did last night, especially over
southwest Missouri and extreme southeast Kansas which wound up
getting dense fog, but would not be surprised to see some light
fog with visibilities down in the 3 to 5 mile range during the
overnight and early morning. Upper level ridge axis will move
overhead with surface ridge shifting east. We will see a return to
a southeast wind with temperatures returning to the mid 60s east
and mid 70s west during the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Upper level ridge axis will exit to the east as quickly as it
moved in on Wednesday night, with shortwave energy moving into the
area late Wednesday night into Thursday. Instability may be enough
for some isolated thunder, but not expecting anything severe with
this quick moving system. Precipitation chances will begin
Wednesday night and continue into Thursday, but should exit to the
east by Thursday evening.

A more amplified upper level ridge will begin to build into the
area on Friday and continue into the weekend. 850/925 mb
temperatures will be quite warm for this time of year and our
upper air climatological study would support surface temperatures
this weekend in the upper 70s to low 80s. This will likely not
break any records, but are getting close to record highs for this
time of year.  (See climate section below for records).

Upper level trough and shortwave energy is expected to move across
the area Monday into Tuesday and will bring a chance of showers
and thunderstorms to the area. ECMWF is slightly slower with this
system than the GFS in clearing the QPF to the east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 619 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday. The UPS fog
forecasting technique indicates that fog potential is low for
tonight. We may also see an increase in clouds over portions of
southern Missouri starting late tonight...which would also inhibit
fog development. Light winds this evening will become light out of
the southeast on Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann
CLIMATE...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KEAX 212316
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
616 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 417 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Tonight - Thursday:

This period will bring an end to our 8+ day dry spell. Weak mid
level warm air advection could generate some sprinkles very late
tonight and Wednesday morning. Much better rain chances arrive late
Wednesday night.

Upper ridge axis from MN through east TX will translate eastward
while progressive shortwave over the intermountain region lifts
northeast and through the Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley. Surface
ridge will give way to a gradual shift to a southerly flow by
Wednesday night. Increasing moist warm air advection aided by a
disorganized disturbance now over West TX will combine to generate a
band of convection which will translate from west to east across the
CWA beginning late Wednesday night and ending Thursday afternoon.
Weak elevated instability, MUCAPES < 400J/kg, will likely support a
few embedded thunderstorms.

A weak frontal boundary will accompany the convection but will mark
mark nothing more than a wind shift from south to southwest.
Thursday temperatures will be defined by amount of residual cloud
cover and expect slightly warmer than average temperatures.

Friday - Sunday:

The upper ridge will quickly rebuild from the Rockies into the
Plains with a corresponding influx of warmer h8 temperatures of +14C
to +18C threatening to send max temperatures to 80 over western MO.
See no chance of precipitation during this period.

Monday - Tuesday:

Medium range models are on the same track for the start of next week
with a well-defined upper trough tracking east through the Plains
and MS Valley. Model trends seem reasonable enough to raise PoPs.
This system will have a stronger cold front associated with it and
the post frontal airmass will likely support below average
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 612 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Expecting VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Winds should stay
high enough through the night to preclude much in the way of fog
development. Some low level clouds will work their way into the area
during the early morning hours. This will likely create a broken or
overcast deck around 4000 to 5000 feet. Some isolated to scattered
light showers could form within this deck, so have gone with a VCSH
group for KSTJ, where the better chance for rain appears. The KC
metro terminals might see a few sprinkles, so held off for now on
mention of precip, but will readdress perhaps a VCSH group on the 06z
issuance.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 212316
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
616 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 417 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Tonight - Thursday:

This period will bring an end to our 8+ day dry spell. Weak mid
level warm air advection could generate some sprinkles very late
tonight and Wednesday morning. Much better rain chances arrive late
Wednesday night.

Upper ridge axis from MN through east TX will translate eastward
while progressive shortwave over the intermountain region lifts
northeast and through the Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley. Surface
ridge will give way to a gradual shift to a southerly flow by
Wednesday night. Increasing moist warm air advection aided by a
disorganized disturbance now over West TX will combine to generate a
band of convection which will translate from west to east across the
CWA beginning late Wednesday night and ending Thursday afternoon.
Weak elevated instability, MUCAPES < 400J/kg, will likely support a
few embedded thunderstorms.

A weak frontal boundary will accompany the convection but will mark
mark nothing more than a wind shift from south to southwest.
Thursday temperatures will be defined by amount of residual cloud
cover and expect slightly warmer than average temperatures.

Friday - Sunday:

The upper ridge will quickly rebuild from the Rockies into the
Plains with a corresponding influx of warmer h8 temperatures of +14C
to +18C threatening to send max temperatures to 80 over western MO.
See no chance of precipitation during this period.

Monday - Tuesday:

Medium range models are on the same track for the start of next week
with a well-defined upper trough tracking east through the Plains
and MS Valley. Model trends seem reasonable enough to raise PoPs.
This system will have a stronger cold front associated with it and
the post frontal airmass will likely support below average
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 612 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Expecting VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Winds should stay
high enough through the night to preclude much in the way of fog
development. Some low level clouds will work their way into the area
during the early morning hours. This will likely create a broken or
overcast deck around 4000 to 5000 feet. Some isolated to scattered
light showers could form within this deck, so have gone with a VCSH
group for KSTJ, where the better chance for rain appears. The KC
metro terminals might see a few sprinkles, so held off for now on
mention of precip, but will readdress perhaps a VCSH group on the 06z
issuance.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 212117
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
417 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 417 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Tonight - Thursday:

This period will bring an end to our 8+ day dry spell. Weak mid
level warm air advection could generate some sprinkles very late
tonight and Wednesday morning. Much better rain chances arrive late
Wednesday night.

Upper ridge axis from MN through east TX will translate eastward
while progressive shortwave over the intermountain region lifts
northeast and through the Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley. Surface
ridge will give way to a gradual shift to a southerly flow by
Wednesday night. Increasing moist warm air advection aided by a
disorganized disturbance now over West TX will combine to generate a
band of convection which will translate from west to east across the
CWA beginning late Wednesday night and ending Thursday afternoon.
Weak elevated instability, MUCAPES < 400J/kg, will likely support a
few embedded thunderstorms.

A weak frontal boundary will accompany the convection but will mark
mark nothing more than a wind shift from south to southwest.
Thursday temperatures will be defined by amount of residual cloud
cover and expect slightly warmer than average temperatures.

Friday - Sunday:

The upper ridge will quickly rebuild from the Rockies into the
Plains with a corresponding influx of warmer h8 temperatures of +14C
to +18C threatening to send max temperatures to 80 over western MO.
See no chance of precipitation during this period.

Monday - Tuesday:

Medium range models are on the same track for the start of next week
with a well-defined upper trough tracking east through the Plains
and MS Valley. Model trends seem reasonable enough to raise PoPs.
This system will have a stronger cold front associated with it and
the post frontal airmass will likely support below average
temperatures.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Light southeast winds and VFR conditions will continue as high
pressure over the region slowly shifts east. Expect increasing clouds
around 5k ft to spread eastward across eastern KS/western MO early
Wednesday morning. Could see isolated very light showers from southeast
NE into northwest MO during this time.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KLSX 212031
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
331 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Surface ridge extending from Wisconsin south-southwest through the
Mississippi Valley into the southeast Plains will drift to the
southeast tonight.  The upper level ridge will continue to build
overhead keeping the sky clear.  Expect light and variable surface
wind this evening to turn to the east southeast overnight as the
surface ridge drifts by.  With good radiational cooling conditions
for at least part of the night, expect temperatures to dip down to
near or slightly below this morning`s lows.  Used a combination of
consensus MOS and MAV for forecast lows tomorrow morning.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

(Wednesday through Friday)

Dry weather is expected through Wednesday evening as a upper ridge
currently over the Plains will move across the area.  Then will
continue a slight chance for showers late on Wednesday night over
northeast and central Missouri as well as west central Illinois as
the GFS/NAM/ECMWF are all in good agreement that a upper trough will
approach the area.  This trough will move quickly across the area on
Thursday, though moisture will be limited with this system, so have
kept rain chances associated with this system in area mainly north
of I-70 where best ascent will be. Then subsidence will begin to
build into the area behind the trough, so expect dry weather to
return to the area for Thursday night and Friday.

Went toward the warmer GFS MOS for highs the next few days which
matches well with mixing down 900mb temperatures.

(Saturday through next Tuesday)

Weekend still looks dry and warm for late October as both the GFS
and ECMWF showing a large upper ridge building over the area.  850mb
temperatures will climb to near 15C as surface winds become
southerly by Sunday. Both the GFS and ECMWF MOS guidance support
high temperatures well into the 70s Saturday into Monday. By early
next week, the latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF are in good agreement
that a large trough will be moving through the Plains into the
Midwest with the attendant cold front reaching Missouri and
Illinois by Monday night. Will carry just low chances for showers
as there have been run-to-run model continuity issues which will
ultimately determine the timing of the rain early next week.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Surface ridge centered north of Lake Superior extending south
through the Mississippi Valley will drift south-southeast through
Wednesday. VFR conditions will prevail with river valley fog
possible late tonight and Wednesday morning. Wind will gradually
veer from the north-northeast to to the east-southeast by
Wednesday afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

Surface ridge centered north of Lake Superior extending south
through the Mississippi Valley will drift south-southeast through
Wednesday. VFR conditions will continue to prevail. Wind will
gradually veer from the north-northeast to to the east-southeast
by Wednesday afternoon.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 211924
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
224 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Surface high pressure was located across the region today with an
upper level ridge shifting eastward over the Plains and into the
Mississippi Valley. Once the morning fog burned off, there has
been abundant sunshine and has aided in temperatures reaching the
low to mid 70s so far this afternoon.

The ridge will be progressive to the east with a shortwave
expected to affect the area on Wednesday night into Thursday
offering our next shot at some precipitation, before a more
amplified ridge builds in for the last part of the week and into
the weekend.

Outside of the precipitation chances on Thursday and then again
early next week, our main focus will be with how high the
temperatures can get as the ridge builds in late this week. It
will certainly be unseasonably warm with 850mb temperatures
reaching the mid to upper teens.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Should not see the fog like we did last night, especially over
southwest Missouri and extreme southeast Kansas which wound up
getting dense fog, but would not be surprised to see some light
fog with visibilities down in the 3 to 5 mile range during the
overnight and early morning. Upper level ridge axis will move
overhead with surface ridge shifting east. We will see a return to
a southeast wind with temperatures returning to the mid 60s east
and mid 70s west during the afternoon.



.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Upper level ridge axis will exit to the east as quickly as it
moved in on Wednesday night, with shortwave energy moving into the
area late Wednesday night into Thursday. Instability may be enough
for some isolated thunder, but not expecting anything severe with
this quick moving system. Precipitation chances will begin
Wednesday night and continue into Thursday, but should exit to the
east by Thursday evening.

A more amplified upper level ridge will begin to build into the
area on Friday and continue into the weekend. 850/925 mb
temperatures will be quite warm for this time of year and our
upper air climatological study would support surface temperatures
this weekend in the upper 70s to low 80s. This will likely not
break any records, but are getting close to record highs for this
time of year.  (See climate section below for records).

Upper level trough and shortwave energy is expected to move across
the area Monday into Tuesday and will bring a chance of showers
and thunderstorms to the area. ECMWF is slightly slower with this
system than the GFS in clearing the QPF to the east.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: Surface high pressure will be
over the region through the TAF period. As a result mostly clear
skies and light winds will occur, with the winds generally variable
from the southwest to southeast. There could be some light fog
that develops in the Joplin and Branson areas early Wednesday
morning. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Wise
CLIMATE...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KLSX 211750
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1250 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Thursday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Dry weather and seasonable temperatures will continue through
tomorrow and into tomorrow night.

A vort max was located over northern NV early this morning. This
system is forecast to lift northeastwards today, then move through
the northern plains and into southern Canada tonight and
tomorrow. Even though the vort max itself will be located well
north of MO/IL, it will still drag a weak cold front into the
region tomorrow night and Thursday, bringing a chance of rain
showers to parts of the area. Some models do show a few hundred
J/kg of CAPE farther west across western MO, but instability looks
much more limited over central and northeastern MO.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Model solutions depict a large ridge of high pressure building
across the middle of the country from Friday through Sunday. High
temperatures could warm to as much as 5-15 degrees above average
during this time if H85 temperatures of 10-16 deg C are realized.
Another low pressure system could bring a chance of rain to the
area on Monday or early next week.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Surface ridge centered north of Lake Superior extending south
through the Mississippi Valley will drift south-southeast through
Wednesday. VFR conditions will prevail with river valley fog
possible late tonight and Wednesday morning. Wind will gradually
veer from the north-northeast to to the east-southeast by
Wednesday afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

Surface ridge centered north of Lake Superior extending south
through the Mississippi Valley will drift south-southeast through
Wednesday. VFR conditions will continue to prevail. Wind will
gradually veer from the north-northeast to to the east-southeast
by Wednesday afternoon.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 211730
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1230 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 427 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

What forecast concerns there are for the next week remain focused on
the potential for rain Wednesday through Thursday as seasonally nice
conditions will prevail otherwise. Early morning satellite and
surface observations show a shortwave ridge prevailing across the
Plains States with its axis still to our west across central Kansas.
This will keep conditions across eastern Kansas and Missouri rather
pleasant today through much of Wednesday. Precipitable weather
will have to wait for a shortwave trough --currently making landfall
across the Pacific Northwest-- to move through the Plains later this
week as it drags a cold front through.

The Pacific Northwest shortwave will transit the Plains Wednesday
through Thursday. Resulting modest cold front will sweep from west
to east across Kansas and Missouri beginning early Thursday morning.
Current timing continues to point at the onset time for rain likely
being after midnight Wednesday, though many models continue to hedge
activity to start a little earlier. Shear and instability along the
front continue to look rather weak -- 0-3KM shear 20 knots with 200
J/KG MUCAPE--, thus showers and embedded thunderstorm activity is
currently all that is expected. Precipitable water values will range
around an inch and a half as the front slides through, but the
progressive nature of the system should limit precipitation totals
to under one inch, thus no flooding issues are anticipated at this
time.

Otherwise, as the font sweeps through Thursday temperatures will
take a little bit of a dive, but not enough to push them below
normal --normal being mid 60s this time of year--. After which the
Pacific airmass behind the front will keep conditions across the
region rather nice through at least the weekend; highs in the 70s,
low in the 50s. Early next work week, Monday into Tuesday, another
chance for rain may present itself with cooler temperatures, though
given the amount of variance in the model solutions confidence is
not high at this time for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Light southeast winds and VFR conditions will continue as high
pressure over the region slowly shifts east. Expect increasing clouds
around 5k ft to spread eastward across eastern KS/western MO early
Wednesday morning. Could see isolated very light showers from southeast
NE into northwest MO during this time.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KSGF 211705
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1205 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Dense fog is the main near term concern. 11-3.9 micron METSAT
imagery and sfc obs indicate areas of dense fog have developed
over the far sw cwfa. KGMJ/Grove OK, KHFJ/Monett, KFWB/West
Branson, and adjacent areas in NW AR have all been consistently at
1/4sm in recent obs. Others nearby sites are bouncing around
visibility wise indicating that the fog is somewhat more shallow
and/or patchy as you head north and northeast into drier air which
has worked it`s way south. Overall the best chances for fog early
today will be roughly south and west of a line from Pittsburg KS-
Springfield-Gainesville. Current advisory reflects the most
persistent/widespread dense fog observations so far. Low terrain
and lakes are favored areas for this nighttime radiation fog.

Weak high pressure over the region today will shift off to the
east for Wed leaving the region with quiet and cool weather.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A shortwave over the far western CONUS will reach the eastern
Plains by 12z Thursday. Only light precip chances will occur over
the area given the relatively weak lift and a lack of deep
moisture.

In the wake of the shortwave a high amplitude upper level pattern
develops with a large and expanding ridge over the eastern Rockies
and Plains. We should see unseasonably warm temperatures to close
out the week. 850mb/925mb temperatures climatologically support
daily max sfc temps in the low/mid 80s over the western cwfa Friday-
Sunday with 70s elsewhere. The extended model blend fcst doesn`t
quite reflect fcst highs that are that warm, but the blend was
tweaked up just a bit in collaboration with some neighboring
wfo`s.

While some significant differences exist between various pieces of
fcst guidance, in general it looks like a shortwave will move
east into the Plains Monday. The slower ECMWF is probably a better
bet versus the more progressive GFS at this point with better
chances for rain holding off until just after this fcst period.
For now have only very modest rain chances for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: Surface high pressure will be
over the region through the TAF period. As a result mostly clear
skies and light winds will occur, with the winds generally variable
from the southwest to southeast. There could be some light fog
that develops in the Joplin and Branson areas early Wednesday
morning. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KLSX 211216
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
716 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Thursday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Dry weather and seasonable temperatures will continue through
tomorrow and into tomorrow night.

A vort max was located over northern NV early this morning. This
system is forecast to lift northeastwards today, then move through
the northern plains and into southern Canada tonight and
tomorrow. Even though the vort max itself will be located well
north of MO/IL, it will still drag a weak cold front into the
region tomorrow night and Thursday, bringing a chance of rain
showers to parts of the area. Some models do show a few hundred
J/kg of CAPE farther west across western MO, but instability looks
much more limited over central and northeastern MO.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Model solutions depict a large ridge of high pressure building
across the middle of the country from Friday through Sunday. High
temperatures could warm to as much as 5-15 degrees above average
during this time if H85 temperatures of 10-16 deg C are realized.
Another low pressure system could bring a chance of rain to the
area on Monday or early next week.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 715 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

VFR conditions will persist across the region as cool and dry high
pressure builds into the mid-Mississippi Valley from the upper
Great Lakes. Only potential issue could be river fog tonight at
the usual suspects (SUS/CPS), but will let later shifts evalute this
threat before including in forecast.

Specifics for KSTL: Clear skies should continue today through
tonight as high pressure dominates the weather over the Central
U.S.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 211216
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
716 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Thursday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Dry weather and seasonable temperatures will continue through
tomorrow and into tomorrow night.

A vort max was located over northern NV early this morning. This
system is forecast to lift northeastwards today, then move through
the northern plains and into southern Canada tonight and
tomorrow. Even though the vort max itself will be located well
north of MO/IL, it will still drag a weak cold front into the
region tomorrow night and Thursday, bringing a chance of rain
showers to parts of the area. Some models do show a few hundred
J/kg of CAPE farther west across western MO, but instability looks
much more limited over central and northeastern MO.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Model solutions depict a large ridge of high pressure building
across the middle of the country from Friday through Sunday. High
temperatures could warm to as much as 5-15 degrees above average
during this time if H85 temperatures of 10-16 deg C are realized.
Another low pressure system could bring a chance of rain to the
area on Monday or early next week.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 715 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

VFR conditions will persist across the region as cool and dry high
pressure builds into the mid-Mississippi Valley from the upper
Great Lakes. Only potential issue could be river fog tonight at
the usual suspects (SUS/CPS), but will let later shifts evalute this
threat before including in forecast.

Specifics for KSTL: Clear skies should continue today through
tonight as high pressure dominates the weather over the Central
U.S.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 211208
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
708 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Dense fog is the main near term concern. 11-3.9 micron METSAT
imagery and sfc obs indicate areas of dense fog have developed
over the far sw cwfa. KGMJ/Grove OK, KHFJ/Monett, KFWB/West
Branson, and adjacent areas in NW AR have all been consistently at
1/4sm in recent obs. Others nearby sites are bouncing around
visibility wise indicating that the fog is somewhat more shallow
and/or patchy as you head north and northeast into drier air which
has worked it`s way south. Overall the best chances for fog early
today will be roughly south and west of a line from Pittsburg KS-
Springfield-Gainesville. Current advisory reflects the most
persistent/widespread dense fog observations so far. Low terrain
and lakes are favored areas for this nighttime radiation fog.

Weak high pressure over the region today will shift off to the
east for Wed leaving the region with quiet and cool weather.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A shortwave over the far western CONUS will reach the eastern
Plains by 12z Thursday. Only light precip chances will occur over
the area given the relatively weak lift and a lack of deep
moisture.

In the wake of the shortwave a high amplitude upper level pattern
develops with a large and expanding ridge over the eastern Rockies
and Plains. We should see unseasonably warm temperatures to close
out the week. 850mb/925mb temperatures climatologically support
daily max sfc temps in the low/mid 80s over the western cwfa Friday-
Sunday with 70s elsewhere. The extended model blend fcst doesn`t
quite reflect fcst highs that are that warm, but the blend was
tweaked up just a bit in collaboration with some neighboring
wfo`s.

While some significant differences exist between various pieces of
fcst guidance, in general it looks like a shortwave will move
east into the Plains Monday. The slower ECMWF is probably a better
bet versus the more progressive GFS at this point with better
chances for rain holding off until just after this fcst period.
For now have only very modest rain chances for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 654 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Dense fog will continue to impact visibilities for the Joplin and
Branson terminals through 14z this morning. Visibilities will be
IFR for the BBG and JLN terminals with MVFR visibilities for the
SGF terminal. Cloud cover across the region was limited to the JLN
and BBG aerodromes and across southern Missouri. By mid morning,
cloud cover and visibilities are expected to improve to VFR
conditions as upper level ridging and surface high pressure move
across the region.

Some light fog may impact the BBG and JLN terminals again
Wednesday morning as light winds and cool temperatures allow for
fog development.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ088-
     093>095-101>105.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch









000
FXUS63 KSGF 211208
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
708 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Dense fog is the main near term concern. 11-3.9 micron METSAT
imagery and sfc obs indicate areas of dense fog have developed
over the far sw cwfa. KGMJ/Grove OK, KHFJ/Monett, KFWB/West
Branson, and adjacent areas in NW AR have all been consistently at
1/4sm in recent obs. Others nearby sites are bouncing around
visibility wise indicating that the fog is somewhat more shallow
and/or patchy as you head north and northeast into drier air which
has worked it`s way south. Overall the best chances for fog early
today will be roughly south and west of a line from Pittsburg KS-
Springfield-Gainesville. Current advisory reflects the most
persistent/widespread dense fog observations so far. Low terrain
and lakes are favored areas for this nighttime radiation fog.

Weak high pressure over the region today will shift off to the
east for Wed leaving the region with quiet and cool weather.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A shortwave over the far western CONUS will reach the eastern
Plains by 12z Thursday. Only light precip chances will occur over
the area given the relatively weak lift and a lack of deep
moisture.

In the wake of the shortwave a high amplitude upper level pattern
develops with a large and expanding ridge over the eastern Rockies
and Plains. We should see unseasonably warm temperatures to close
out the week. 850mb/925mb temperatures climatologically support
daily max sfc temps in the low/mid 80s over the western cwfa Friday-
Sunday with 70s elsewhere. The extended model blend fcst doesn`t
quite reflect fcst highs that are that warm, but the blend was
tweaked up just a bit in collaboration with some neighboring
wfo`s.

While some significant differences exist between various pieces of
fcst guidance, in general it looks like a shortwave will move
east into the Plains Monday. The slower ECMWF is probably a better
bet versus the more progressive GFS at this point with better
chances for rain holding off until just after this fcst period.
For now have only very modest rain chances for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 654 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Dense fog will continue to impact visibilities for the Joplin and
Branson terminals through 14z this morning. Visibilities will be
IFR for the BBG and JLN terminals with MVFR visibilities for the
SGF terminal. Cloud cover across the region was limited to the JLN
and BBG aerodromes and across southern Missouri. By mid morning,
cloud cover and visibilities are expected to improve to VFR
conditions as upper level ridging and surface high pressure move
across the region.

Some light fog may impact the BBG and JLN terminals again
Wednesday morning as light winds and cool temperatures allow for
fog development.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ088-
     093>095-101>105.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch








000
FXUS63 KSGF 211208
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
708 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Dense fog is the main near term concern. 11-3.9 micron METSAT
imagery and sfc obs indicate areas of dense fog have developed
over the far sw cwfa. KGMJ/Grove OK, KHFJ/Monett, KFWB/West
Branson, and adjacent areas in NW AR have all been consistently at
1/4sm in recent obs. Others nearby sites are bouncing around
visibility wise indicating that the fog is somewhat more shallow
and/or patchy as you head north and northeast into drier air which
has worked it`s way south. Overall the best chances for fog early
today will be roughly south and west of a line from Pittsburg KS-
Springfield-Gainesville. Current advisory reflects the most
persistent/widespread dense fog observations so far. Low terrain
and lakes are favored areas for this nighttime radiation fog.

Weak high pressure over the region today will shift off to the
east for Wed leaving the region with quiet and cool weather.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A shortwave over the far western CONUS will reach the eastern
Plains by 12z Thursday. Only light precip chances will occur over
the area given the relatively weak lift and a lack of deep
moisture.

In the wake of the shortwave a high amplitude upper level pattern
develops with a large and expanding ridge over the eastern Rockies
and Plains. We should see unseasonably warm temperatures to close
out the week. 850mb/925mb temperatures climatologically support
daily max sfc temps in the low/mid 80s over the western cwfa Friday-
Sunday with 70s elsewhere. The extended model blend fcst doesn`t
quite reflect fcst highs that are that warm, but the blend was
tweaked up just a bit in collaboration with some neighboring
wfo`s.

While some significant differences exist between various pieces of
fcst guidance, in general it looks like a shortwave will move
east into the Plains Monday. The slower ECMWF is probably a better
bet versus the more progressive GFS at this point with better
chances for rain holding off until just after this fcst period.
For now have only very modest rain chances for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 654 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Dense fog will continue to impact visibilities for the Joplin and
Branson terminals through 14z this morning. Visibilities will be
IFR for the BBG and JLN terminals with MVFR visibilities for the
SGF terminal. Cloud cover across the region was limited to the JLN
and BBG aerodromes and across southern Missouri. By mid morning,
cloud cover and visibilities are expected to improve to VFR
conditions as upper level ridging and surface high pressure move
across the region.

Some light fog may impact the BBG and JLN terminals again
Wednesday morning as light winds and cool temperatures allow for
fog development.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ088-
     093>095-101>105.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch









000
FXUS63 KSGF 211208
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
708 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Dense fog is the main near term concern. 11-3.9 micron METSAT
imagery and sfc obs indicate areas of dense fog have developed
over the far sw cwfa. KGMJ/Grove OK, KHFJ/Monett, KFWB/West
Branson, and adjacent areas in NW AR have all been consistently at
1/4sm in recent obs. Others nearby sites are bouncing around
visibility wise indicating that the fog is somewhat more shallow
and/or patchy as you head north and northeast into drier air which
has worked it`s way south. Overall the best chances for fog early
today will be roughly south and west of a line from Pittsburg KS-
Springfield-Gainesville. Current advisory reflects the most
persistent/widespread dense fog observations so far. Low terrain
and lakes are favored areas for this nighttime radiation fog.

Weak high pressure over the region today will shift off to the
east for Wed leaving the region with quiet and cool weather.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A shortwave over the far western CONUS will reach the eastern
Plains by 12z Thursday. Only light precip chances will occur over
the area given the relatively weak lift and a lack of deep
moisture.

In the wake of the shortwave a high amplitude upper level pattern
develops with a large and expanding ridge over the eastern Rockies
and Plains. We should see unseasonably warm temperatures to close
out the week. 850mb/925mb temperatures climatologically support
daily max sfc temps in the low/mid 80s over the western cwfa Friday-
Sunday with 70s elsewhere. The extended model blend fcst doesn`t
quite reflect fcst highs that are that warm, but the blend was
tweaked up just a bit in collaboration with some neighboring
wfo`s.

While some significant differences exist between various pieces of
fcst guidance, in general it looks like a shortwave will move
east into the Plains Monday. The slower ECMWF is probably a better
bet versus the more progressive GFS at this point with better
chances for rain holding off until just after this fcst period.
For now have only very modest rain chances for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 654 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Dense fog will continue to impact visibilities for the Joplin and
Branson terminals through 14z this morning. Visibilities will be
IFR for the BBG and JLN terminals with MVFR visibilities for the
SGF terminal. Cloud cover across the region was limited to the JLN
and BBG aerodromes and across southern Missouri. By mid morning,
cloud cover and visibilities are expected to improve to VFR
conditions as upper level ridging and surface high pressure move
across the region.

Some light fog may impact the BBG and JLN terminals again
Wednesday morning as light winds and cool temperatures allow for
fog development.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ088-
     093>095-101>105.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch








000
FXUS63 KEAX 211149
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
649 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 427 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

What forecast concerns there are for the next week remain focused on
the potential for rain Wednesday through Thursday as seasonally nice
conditions will prevail otherwise. Early morning satellite and
surface observations show a shortwave ridge prevailing across the
Plains States with its axis still to our west across central Kansas.
This will keep conditions across eastern Kansas and Missouri rather
pleasant today through much of Wednesday. Precipitable weather
will have to wait for a shortwave trough --currently making landfall
across the Pacific Northwest-- to move through the Plains later this
week as it drags a cold front through.

The Pacific Northwest shortwave will transit the Plains Wednesday
through Thursday. Resulting modest cold front will sweep from west
to east across Kansas and Missouri beginning early Thursday morning.
Current timing continues to point at the onset time for rain likely
being after midnight Wednesday, though many models continue to hedge
activity to start a little earlier. Shear and instability along the
front continue to look rather weak -- 0-3KM shear 20 knots with 200
J/KG MUCAPE--, thus showers and embedded thunderstorm activity is
currently all that is expected. Precipitable water values will range
around an inch and a half as the front slides through, but the
progressive nature of the system should limit precipitation totals
to under one inch, thus no flooding issues are anticipated at this
time.

Otherwise, as the font sweeps through Thursday temperatures will
take a little bit of a dive, but not enough to push them below
normal --normal being mid 60s this time of year--. After which the
Pacific airmass behind the front will keep conditions across the
region rather nice through at least the weekend; highs in the 70s,
low in the 50s. Early next work week, Monday into Tuesday, another
chance for rain may present itself with cooler temperatures, though
given the amount of variance in the model solutions confidence is
not high at this time for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 649 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at the Kansas City terminals this
morning with light winds and VFR conditions to persist through the
next 24 hours. The KSTJ terminal will continue to fight with steam
fog off the Missouri River into the mid-morning hours, but otherwise
should be VFR for the rest of the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 211149
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
649 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 427 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

What forecast concerns there are for the next week remain focused on
the potential for rain Wednesday through Thursday as seasonally nice
conditions will prevail otherwise. Early morning satellite and
surface observations show a shortwave ridge prevailing across the
Plains States with its axis still to our west across central Kansas.
This will keep conditions across eastern Kansas and Missouri rather
pleasant today through much of Wednesday. Precipitable weather
will have to wait for a shortwave trough --currently making landfall
across the Pacific Northwest-- to move through the Plains later this
week as it drags a cold front through.

The Pacific Northwest shortwave will transit the Plains Wednesday
through Thursday. Resulting modest cold front will sweep from west
to east across Kansas and Missouri beginning early Thursday morning.
Current timing continues to point at the onset time for rain likely
being after midnight Wednesday, though many models continue to hedge
activity to start a little earlier. Shear and instability along the
front continue to look rather weak -- 0-3KM shear 20 knots with 200
J/KG MUCAPE--, thus showers and embedded thunderstorm activity is
currently all that is expected. Precipitable water values will range
around an inch and a half as the front slides through, but the
progressive nature of the system should limit precipitation totals
to under one inch, thus no flooding issues are anticipated at this
time.

Otherwise, as the font sweeps through Thursday temperatures will
take a little bit of a dive, but not enough to push them below
normal --normal being mid 60s this time of year--. After which the
Pacific airmass behind the front will keep conditions across the
region rather nice through at least the weekend; highs in the 70s,
low in the 50s. Early next work week, Monday into Tuesday, another
chance for rain may present itself with cooler temperatures, though
given the amount of variance in the model solutions confidence is
not high at this time for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 649 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at the Kansas City terminals this
morning with light winds and VFR conditions to persist through the
next 24 hours. The KSTJ terminal will continue to fight with steam
fog off the Missouri River into the mid-morning hours, but otherwise
should be VFR for the rest of the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KEAX 211149
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
649 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 427 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

What forecast concerns there are for the next week remain focused on
the potential for rain Wednesday through Thursday as seasonally nice
conditions will prevail otherwise. Early morning satellite and
surface observations show a shortwave ridge prevailing across the
Plains States with its axis still to our west across central Kansas.
This will keep conditions across eastern Kansas and Missouri rather
pleasant today through much of Wednesday. Precipitable weather
will have to wait for a shortwave trough --currently making landfall
across the Pacific Northwest-- to move through the Plains later this
week as it drags a cold front through.

The Pacific Northwest shortwave will transit the Plains Wednesday
through Thursday. Resulting modest cold front will sweep from west
to east across Kansas and Missouri beginning early Thursday morning.
Current timing continues to point at the onset time for rain likely
being after midnight Wednesday, though many models continue to hedge
activity to start a little earlier. Shear and instability along the
front continue to look rather weak -- 0-3KM shear 20 knots with 200
J/KG MUCAPE--, thus showers and embedded thunderstorm activity is
currently all that is expected. Precipitable water values will range
around an inch and a half as the front slides through, but the
progressive nature of the system should limit precipitation totals
to under one inch, thus no flooding issues are anticipated at this
time.

Otherwise, as the font sweeps through Thursday temperatures will
take a little bit of a dive, but not enough to push them below
normal --normal being mid 60s this time of year--. After which the
Pacific airmass behind the front will keep conditions across the
region rather nice through at least the weekend; highs in the 70s,
low in the 50s. Early next work week, Monday into Tuesday, another
chance for rain may present itself with cooler temperatures, though
given the amount of variance in the model solutions confidence is
not high at this time for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 649 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at the Kansas City terminals this
morning with light winds and VFR conditions to persist through the
next 24 hours. The KSTJ terminal will continue to fight with steam
fog off the Missouri River into the mid-morning hours, but otherwise
should be VFR for the rest of the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KEAX 211149
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
649 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 427 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

What forecast concerns there are for the next week remain focused on
the potential for rain Wednesday through Thursday as seasonally nice
conditions will prevail otherwise. Early morning satellite and
surface observations show a shortwave ridge prevailing across the
Plains States with its axis still to our west across central Kansas.
This will keep conditions across eastern Kansas and Missouri rather
pleasant today through much of Wednesday. Precipitable weather
will have to wait for a shortwave trough --currently making landfall
across the Pacific Northwest-- to move through the Plains later this
week as it drags a cold front through.

The Pacific Northwest shortwave will transit the Plains Wednesday
through Thursday. Resulting modest cold front will sweep from west
to east across Kansas and Missouri beginning early Thursday morning.
Current timing continues to point at the onset time for rain likely
being after midnight Wednesday, though many models continue to hedge
activity to start a little earlier. Shear and instability along the
front continue to look rather weak -- 0-3KM shear 20 knots with 200
J/KG MUCAPE--, thus showers and embedded thunderstorm activity is
currently all that is expected. Precipitable water values will range
around an inch and a half as the front slides through, but the
progressive nature of the system should limit precipitation totals
to under one inch, thus no flooding issues are anticipated at this
time.

Otherwise, as the font sweeps through Thursday temperatures will
take a little bit of a dive, but not enough to push them below
normal --normal being mid 60s this time of year--. After which the
Pacific airmass behind the front will keep conditions across the
region rather nice through at least the weekend; highs in the 70s,
low in the 50s. Early next work week, Monday into Tuesday, another
chance for rain may present itself with cooler temperatures, though
given the amount of variance in the model solutions confidence is
not high at this time for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 649 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at the Kansas City terminals this
morning with light winds and VFR conditions to persist through the
next 24 hours. The KSTJ terminal will continue to fight with steam
fog off the Missouri River into the mid-morning hours, but otherwise
should be VFR for the rest of the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KLSX 210959
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
459 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Thursday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Dry weather and seasonable temperatures will continue through
tomorrow and into tomorrow night.

A vort max was located over northern NV early this morning. This
system is forecast to lift northeastwards today, then move through
the northern plains and into southern Canada tonight and
tomorrow. Even though the vort max itself will be located well
north of MO/IL, it will still drag a weak cold front into the
region tomorrow night and Thursday, bringing a chance of rain
showers to parts of the area. Some models do show a few hundred
J/kg of CAPE farther west across western MO, but instability looks
much more limited over central and northeastern MO.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Model solutions depict a large ridge of high pressure building
across the middle of the country from Friday through Sunday. High
temperatures could warm to as much as 5-15 degrees above average
during this time if H85 temperatures of 10-16 deg C are realized.
Another low pressure system could bring a chance of rain to the
area on Monday or early next week.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

VFR and dry thru the TAF period. Light and vrb winds tonight will
become nly to nely Tues morning.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 210959
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
459 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Thursday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Dry weather and seasonable temperatures will continue through
tomorrow and into tomorrow night.

A vort max was located over northern NV early this morning. This
system is forecast to lift northeastwards today, then move through
the northern plains and into southern Canada tonight and
tomorrow. Even though the vort max itself will be located well
north of MO/IL, it will still drag a weak cold front into the
region tomorrow night and Thursday, bringing a chance of rain
showers to parts of the area. Some models do show a few hundred
J/kg of CAPE farther west across western MO, but instability looks
much more limited over central and northeastern MO.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Model solutions depict a large ridge of high pressure building
across the middle of the country from Friday through Sunday. High
temperatures could warm to as much as 5-15 degrees above average
during this time if H85 temperatures of 10-16 deg C are realized.
Another low pressure system could bring a chance of rain to the
area on Monday or early next week.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

VFR and dry thru the TAF period. Light and vrb winds tonight will
become nly to nely Tues morning.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 210959
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
459 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Thursday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Dry weather and seasonable temperatures will continue through
tomorrow and into tomorrow night.

A vort max was located over northern NV early this morning. This
system is forecast to lift northeastwards today, then move through
the northern plains and into southern Canada tonight and
tomorrow. Even though the vort max itself will be located well
north of MO/IL, it will still drag a weak cold front into the
region tomorrow night and Thursday, bringing a chance of rain
showers to parts of the area. Some models do show a few hundred
J/kg of CAPE farther west across western MO, but instability looks
much more limited over central and northeastern MO.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Model solutions depict a large ridge of high pressure building
across the middle of the country from Friday through Sunday. High
temperatures could warm to as much as 5-15 degrees above average
during this time if H85 temperatures of 10-16 deg C are realized.
Another low pressure system could bring a chance of rain to the
area on Monday or early next week.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

VFR and dry thru the TAF period. Light and vrb winds tonight will
become nly to nely Tues morning.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 210959
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
459 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Thursday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Dry weather and seasonable temperatures will continue through
tomorrow and into tomorrow night.

A vort max was located over northern NV early this morning. This
system is forecast to lift northeastwards today, then move through
the northern plains and into southern Canada tonight and
tomorrow. Even though the vort max itself will be located well
north of MO/IL, it will still drag a weak cold front into the
region tomorrow night and Thursday, bringing a chance of rain
showers to parts of the area. Some models do show a few hundred
J/kg of CAPE farther west across western MO, but instability looks
much more limited over central and northeastern MO.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Model solutions depict a large ridge of high pressure building
across the middle of the country from Friday through Sunday. High
temperatures could warm to as much as 5-15 degrees above average
during this time if H85 temperatures of 10-16 deg C are realized.
Another low pressure system could bring a chance of rain to the
area on Monday or early next week.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

VFR and dry thru the TAF period. Light and vrb winds tonight will
become nly to nely Tues morning.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 210927
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
427 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 427 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

What forecast concerns there are for the next week remain focused on
the potential for rain Wednesday through Thursday as seasonally nice
conditions will prevail otherwise. Early morning satellite and
surface observations show a shortwave ridge prevailing across the
Plains States with its axis still to our west across central Kansas.
This will keep conditions across eastern Kansas and Missouri rather
pleasant today through much of Wednesday. Precipitable weather
will have to wait for a shortwave trough --currently making landfall
across the Pacific Northwest-- to move through the Plains later this
week as it drags a cold front through.

The Pacific Northwest shortwave will transit the Plains Wednesday
through Thursday. Resulting modest cold front will sweep from west
to east across Kansas and Missouri beginning early Thursday morning.
Current timing continues to point at the onset time for rain likely
being after midnight Wednesday, though many models continue to hedge
activity to start a little earlier. Shear and instability along the
front continue to look rather weak -- 0-3KM shear 20 knots with 200
J/KG MUCAPE--, thus showers and embedded thunderstorm activity is
currently all that is expected. Precipitable water values will range
around an inch and a half as the front slides through, but the
progressive nature of the system should limit precipitation totals
to under one inch, thus no flooding issues are anticipated at this
time.

Otherwise, as the font sweeps through Thursday temperatures will
take a little bit of a dive, but not enough to push them below
normal --normal being mid 60s this time of year--. After which the
Pacific airmass behind the front will keep conditions across the
region rather nice through at least the weekend; highs in the 70s,
low in the 50s. Early next work week, Monday into Tuesday, another
chance for rain may present itself with cooler temperatures, though
given the amount of variance in the model solutions confidence is
not high at this time for precipitation.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected throughout the majority of the forecast
period. Calm overnight winds and cool temperatures could bring about
a good scenario for fog development at KSTJ. This has been the case
during the previous two forecast periods when conditions were even less
favorable than this setup. For the KC area terminals, expecting a
possible MVFR fog development. However, KMCI is currently showing a
20 degree temperature/dew point depression. Will keep an eye on the
direction of the current behavior and will amend the TAFs if
necessary. Otherwise, winds will pick up slightly Tuesday morning as
they begin their transition to southeasterly.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Leighton/Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 210927
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
427 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 427 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

What forecast concerns there are for the next week remain focused on
the potential for rain Wednesday through Thursday as seasonally nice
conditions will prevail otherwise. Early morning satellite and
surface observations show a shortwave ridge prevailing across the
Plains States with its axis still to our west across central Kansas.
This will keep conditions across eastern Kansas and Missouri rather
pleasant today through much of Wednesday. Precipitable weather
will have to wait for a shortwave trough --currently making landfall
across the Pacific Northwest-- to move through the Plains later this
week as it drags a cold front through.

The Pacific Northwest shortwave will transit the Plains Wednesday
through Thursday. Resulting modest cold front will sweep from west
to east across Kansas and Missouri beginning early Thursday morning.
Current timing continues to point at the onset time for rain likely
being after midnight Wednesday, though many models continue to hedge
activity to start a little earlier. Shear and instability along the
front continue to look rather weak -- 0-3KM shear 20 knots with 200
J/KG MUCAPE--, thus showers and embedded thunderstorm activity is
currently all that is expected. Precipitable water values will range
around an inch and a half as the front slides through, but the
progressive nature of the system should limit precipitation totals
to under one inch, thus no flooding issues are anticipated at this
time.

Otherwise, as the font sweeps through Thursday temperatures will
take a little bit of a dive, but not enough to push them below
normal --normal being mid 60s this time of year--. After which the
Pacific airmass behind the front will keep conditions across the
region rather nice through at least the weekend; highs in the 70s,
low in the 50s. Early next work week, Monday into Tuesday, another
chance for rain may present itself with cooler temperatures, though
given the amount of variance in the model solutions confidence is
not high at this time for precipitation.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected throughout the majority of the forecast
period. Calm overnight winds and cool temperatures could bring about
a good scenario for fog development at KSTJ. This has been the case
during the previous two forecast periods when conditions were even less
favorable than this setup. For the KC area terminals, expecting a
possible MVFR fog development. However, KMCI is currently showing a
20 degree temperature/dew point depression. Will keep an eye on the
direction of the current behavior and will amend the TAFs if
necessary. Otherwise, winds will pick up slightly Tuesday morning as
they begin their transition to southeasterly.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Leighton/Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 210927
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
427 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 427 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

What forecast concerns there are for the next week remain focused on
the potential for rain Wednesday through Thursday as seasonally nice
conditions will prevail otherwise. Early morning satellite and
surface observations show a shortwave ridge prevailing across the
Plains States with its axis still to our west across central Kansas.
This will keep conditions across eastern Kansas and Missouri rather
pleasant today through much of Wednesday. Precipitable weather
will have to wait for a shortwave trough --currently making landfall
across the Pacific Northwest-- to move through the Plains later this
week as it drags a cold front through.

The Pacific Northwest shortwave will transit the Plains Wednesday
through Thursday. Resulting modest cold front will sweep from west
to east across Kansas and Missouri beginning early Thursday morning.
Current timing continues to point at the onset time for rain likely
being after midnight Wednesday, though many models continue to hedge
activity to start a little earlier. Shear and instability along the
front continue to look rather weak -- 0-3KM shear 20 knots with 200
J/KG MUCAPE--, thus showers and embedded thunderstorm activity is
currently all that is expected. Precipitable water values will range
around an inch and a half as the front slides through, but the
progressive nature of the system should limit precipitation totals
to under one inch, thus no flooding issues are anticipated at this
time.

Otherwise, as the font sweeps through Thursday temperatures will
take a little bit of a dive, but not enough to push them below
normal --normal being mid 60s this time of year--. After which the
Pacific airmass behind the front will keep conditions across the
region rather nice through at least the weekend; highs in the 70s,
low in the 50s. Early next work week, Monday into Tuesday, another
chance for rain may present itself with cooler temperatures, though
given the amount of variance in the model solutions confidence is
not high at this time for precipitation.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected throughout the majority of the forecast
period. Calm overnight winds and cool temperatures could bring about
a good scenario for fog development at KSTJ. This has been the case
during the previous two forecast periods when conditions were even less
favorable than this setup. For the KC area terminals, expecting a
possible MVFR fog development. However, KMCI is currently showing a
20 degree temperature/dew point depression. Will keep an eye on the
direction of the current behavior and will amend the TAFs if
necessary. Otherwise, winds will pick up slightly Tuesday morning as
they begin their transition to southeasterly.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Leighton/Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 210927
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
427 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 427 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

What forecast concerns there are for the next week remain focused on
the potential for rain Wednesday through Thursday as seasonally nice
conditions will prevail otherwise. Early morning satellite and
surface observations show a shortwave ridge prevailing across the
Plains States with its axis still to our west across central Kansas.
This will keep conditions across eastern Kansas and Missouri rather
pleasant today through much of Wednesday. Precipitable weather
will have to wait for a shortwave trough --currently making landfall
across the Pacific Northwest-- to move through the Plains later this
week as it drags a cold front through.

The Pacific Northwest shortwave will transit the Plains Wednesday
through Thursday. Resulting modest cold front will sweep from west
to east across Kansas and Missouri beginning early Thursday morning.
Current timing continues to point at the onset time for rain likely
being after midnight Wednesday, though many models continue to hedge
activity to start a little earlier. Shear and instability along the
front continue to look rather weak -- 0-3KM shear 20 knots with 200
J/KG MUCAPE--, thus showers and embedded thunderstorm activity is
currently all that is expected. Precipitable water values will range
around an inch and a half as the front slides through, but the
progressive nature of the system should limit precipitation totals
to under one inch, thus no flooding issues are anticipated at this
time.

Otherwise, as the font sweeps through Thursday temperatures will
take a little bit of a dive, but not enough to push them below
normal --normal being mid 60s this time of year--. After which the
Pacific airmass behind the front will keep conditions across the
region rather nice through at least the weekend; highs in the 70s,
low in the 50s. Early next work week, Monday into Tuesday, another
chance for rain may present itself with cooler temperatures, though
given the amount of variance in the model solutions confidence is
not high at this time for precipitation.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected throughout the majority of the forecast
period. Calm overnight winds and cool temperatures could bring about
a good scenario for fog development at KSTJ. This has been the case
during the previous two forecast periods when conditions were even less
favorable than this setup. For the KC area terminals, expecting a
possible MVFR fog development. However, KMCI is currently showing a
20 degree temperature/dew point depression. Will keep an eye on the
direction of the current behavior and will amend the TAFs if
necessary. Otherwise, winds will pick up slightly Tuesday morning as
they begin their transition to southeasterly.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Leighton/Welsh







000
FXUS63 KSGF 210851
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
351 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Dense fog is the main near term concern. 11-3.9 micron METSAT
imagery and sfc obs indicate areas of dense fog have developed
over the far sw cwfa. KGMJ/Grove OK, KHFJ/Monett, KFWB/West
Branson, and adjacent areas in NW AR have all been consistently at
1/4sm in recent obs. Others nearby sites are bouncing around
visibility wise indicating that the fog is somewhat more shallow
and/or patchy as you head north and northeast into drier air which
has worked it`s way south. Overall the best chances for fog early
today will be roughly south and west of a line from Pittsburg KS-
Springfield-Gainesville. Current advisory reflects the most
persistent/widespread dense fog observations so far. Low terrain
and lakes are favored areas for this nighttime radiation fog.

Weak high pressure over the region today will shift off to the
east for Wed leaving the region with quiet and cool weather.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A shortwave over the far western CONUS will reach the eastern
Plains by 12z Thursday. Only light precip chances will occur over
the area given the relatively weak lift and a lack of deep
moisture.

In the wake of the shortwave a high amplitude upper level pattern
develops with a large and expanding ridge over the eastern Rockies
and Plains. We should see unseasonably warm temperatures to close
out the week. 850mb/925mb temperatures climatologically support
daily max sfc temps in the low/mid 80s over the western cwfa Friday-
Sunday with 70s elsewhere. The extended model blend fcst doesn`t
quite reflect fcst highs that are that warm, but the blend was
tweaked up just a bit in collaboration with some neighboring
wfo`s.

While some significant differences exist between various pieces of
fcst guidance, in general it looks like a shortwave will move
east into the Plains Monday. The slower ECMWF is probably a better
bet versus the more progressive GFS at this point with better
chances for rain holding off until just after this fcst period.
For now have only very modest rain chances for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The UPS fog forecasting technique along with late evening
temperature and dew point spreads continue to indicate dense fog
potential overnight and early Tuesday morning. IFR and periods of
LIFR are still expected. Fog onset was delayed a bit at
Springfield and Branson...otherwise very little change was made to
this set of TAFs. Fog will burn off by mid morning with VFR then
expected into Tuesday evening.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ088-
     093>095-101>105.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Schaumann








000
FXUS63 KSGF 210851
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
351 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Dense fog is the main near term concern. 11-3.9 micron METSAT
imagery and sfc obs indicate areas of dense fog have developed
over the far sw cwfa. KGMJ/Grove OK, KHFJ/Monett, KFWB/West
Branson, and adjacent areas in NW AR have all been consistently at
1/4sm in recent obs. Others nearby sites are bouncing around
visibility wise indicating that the fog is somewhat more shallow
and/or patchy as you head north and northeast into drier air which
has worked it`s way south. Overall the best chances for fog early
today will be roughly south and west of a line from Pittsburg KS-
Springfield-Gainesville. Current advisory reflects the most
persistent/widespread dense fog observations so far. Low terrain
and lakes are favored areas for this nighttime radiation fog.

Weak high pressure over the region today will shift off to the
east for Wed leaving the region with quiet and cool weather.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A shortwave over the far western CONUS will reach the eastern
Plains by 12z Thursday. Only light precip chances will occur over
the area given the relatively weak lift and a lack of deep
moisture.

In the wake of the shortwave a high amplitude upper level pattern
develops with a large and expanding ridge over the eastern Rockies
and Plains. We should see unseasonably warm temperatures to close
out the week. 850mb/925mb temperatures climatologically support
daily max sfc temps in the low/mid 80s over the western cwfa Friday-
Sunday with 70s elsewhere. The extended model blend fcst doesn`t
quite reflect fcst highs that are that warm, but the blend was
tweaked up just a bit in collaboration with some neighboring
wfo`s.

While some significant differences exist between various pieces of
fcst guidance, in general it looks like a shortwave will move
east into the Plains Monday. The slower ECMWF is probably a better
bet versus the more progressive GFS at this point with better
chances for rain holding off until just after this fcst period.
For now have only very modest rain chances for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The UPS fog forecasting technique along with late evening
temperature and dew point spreads continue to indicate dense fog
potential overnight and early Tuesday morning. IFR and periods of
LIFR are still expected. Fog onset was delayed a bit at
Springfield and Branson...otherwise very little change was made to
this set of TAFs. Fog will burn off by mid morning with VFR then
expected into Tuesday evening.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ088-
     093>095-101>105.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Schaumann







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