Latest:
 AFDLSX |  AFDSGF |  AFDEAX |
  [top]

000
FXUS63 KLSX 301233
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
733 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Regional radar is showing a number of areas of showers and
thunderstorms across Missouri and western Illinois early this
morning. These are generally within a weak warm advection regime
ahead of a upper trof moving through the MS Valley and in advance
of the attendant cold front. While all the current activity should
continue moving east northeast this morning, the overall consensus
amongst the guidance and convection allowing models is that there
should be a general increase in the scattered activity currently
over southwest Missouri as the morning progresses and it moves
northeast. Additional development is also expected during the
later part of the morning into the afternoon in a broad southwest
to northeast zone ahead of the slowly advancing cold front and centered
through the southeast half of the CWA. Given the current temperatures
in the 70s, low-mid 80s looks reasonable for highs today.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Convective trends are not completely clear cut tonight. The main
upper trof axis should have passed to the east by early this
evening, but there is a weak lingering vort max still to pass and
the front appears to wash out across northeast Missouri and west
central Illinois. Sans the NAM, the model consensus keeps a chance
of showers and thunderstorms centered though the southeast half of
the CWA during the evening. Sunday looks largely dry and warmer
with possibly some isolated diurnal storms across southeast MO and
southwest Illinois. The threat of organized covection should
slowly spread into northeast Missouri late Sunday night with the
approach of a progressive long wave trof and attendant cold front and
intensifying southwesterly LLJ. Thunderstorms appear likely on
Labor Day and Monday night as the cold front moves slowly southward
into a moist unstable air mass, and as a southwesterly LLJ and the
upper trof contribute to lift and cap removal. This system will be
accompanied by deep layer shear of 30-40+ knots resulting in the
potential for organized severe storms. Showers and thunderstorms
could persist across the southern CWA Tuesday and maybe even into
Tuesday night and Wednesday in the vicinity of the front and then
as it retreats back northward late Wednesday.

Late in the week ahead the upper ridge is forecast to restablish
itself over the southeast half of the Nation, bringing a return of
more summer like weather/heat.

Glass
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 732 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Cold front over northwestern Missouri to move southeast across
area today. South winds to veer to the southwest as front moves
through. VFR conditions expected though could see mvfr conditions
with storms that develop. Best chances of storms will be over taf
sites along I-70 corridor after 16z-17z and persist through the
afternoon hours before diminishing and moving out. Then frontal
boundary to washout and allow winds to become southerly once again
for the overnight hours.

Specifics for KSTL:
Cold front over northwestern Missouri to move southeast across
area today. South winds to veer to the southwest after 17z as
front moves through metro area. VFR conditions expected though could
see mvfr conditions with storms that develop, for now just have
vcts mention. Storms to persist through the afternoon hours before
diminishing and moving out by 00z Sunday. Then frontal boundary to
washout and allow winds to become southerly once again for the
overnight hours.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 301233
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
733 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Regional radar is showing a number of areas of showers and
thunderstorms across Missouri and western Illinois early this
morning. These are generally within a weak warm advection regime
ahead of a upper trof moving through the MS Valley and in advance
of the attendant cold front. While all the current activity should
continue moving east northeast this morning, the overall consensus
amongst the guidance and convection allowing models is that there
should be a general increase in the scattered activity currently
over southwest Missouri as the morning progresses and it moves
northeast. Additional development is also expected during the
later part of the morning into the afternoon in a broad southwest
to northeast zone ahead of the slowly advancing cold front and centered
through the southeast half of the CWA. Given the current temperatures
in the 70s, low-mid 80s looks reasonable for highs today.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Convective trends are not completely clear cut tonight. The main
upper trof axis should have passed to the east by early this
evening, but there is a weak lingering vort max still to pass and
the front appears to wash out across northeast Missouri and west
central Illinois. Sans the NAM, the model consensus keeps a chance
of showers and thunderstorms centered though the southeast half of
the CWA during the evening. Sunday looks largely dry and warmer
with possibly some isolated diurnal storms across southeast MO and
southwest Illinois. The threat of organized covection should
slowly spread into northeast Missouri late Sunday night with the
approach of a progressive long wave trof and attendant cold front and
intensifying southwesterly LLJ. Thunderstorms appear likely on
Labor Day and Monday night as the cold front moves slowly southward
into a moist unstable air mass, and as a southwesterly LLJ and the
upper trof contribute to lift and cap removal. This system will be
accompanied by deep layer shear of 30-40+ knots resulting in the
potential for organized severe storms. Showers and thunderstorms
could persist across the southern CWA Tuesday and maybe even into
Tuesday night and Wednesday in the vicinity of the front and then
as it retreats back northward late Wednesday.

Late in the week ahead the upper ridge is forecast to restablish
itself over the southeast half of the Nation, bringing a return of
more summer like weather/heat.

Glass
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 732 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Cold front over northwestern Missouri to move southeast across
area today. South winds to veer to the southwest as front moves
through. VFR conditions expected though could see mvfr conditions
with storms that develop. Best chances of storms will be over taf
sites along I-70 corridor after 16z-17z and persist through the
afternoon hours before diminishing and moving out. Then frontal
boundary to washout and allow winds to become southerly once again
for the overnight hours.

Specifics for KSTL:
Cold front over northwestern Missouri to move southeast across
area today. South winds to veer to the southwest after 17z as
front moves through metro area. VFR conditions expected though could
see mvfr conditions with storms that develop, for now just have
vcts mention. Storms to persist through the afternoon hours before
diminishing and moving out by 00z Sunday. Then frontal boundary to
washout and allow winds to become southerly once again for the
overnight hours.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KSGF 301201
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
701 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 241 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A slowly weakening trough is moving into western Missouri this
morning. Within the past hour or so...scattered showers and a few
rumbles of thunder have develop across southwest Missouri into
Central Missouri. This activity will continue to move eastward
this morning. The best rain chances for today will be over the
eastern Ozarks as western areas will be mainly dry today. Highest
temperatures will be out west and slightly cooler out east. Quiet
and drier weather expected tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Sunday will be mostly hot and drier. There could be an isolated
shower or storm that pops up out to the far east but otherwise
looks good for outdoor activities areawide.

A better defined front will move into the area Monday afternoon
and night. Dynamics with this system and associated upper level
support is a little more interesting with that latest model
guidance.

Southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks will be in a right
entrance region of an upper level jet. Bulk shear will be between
40 to 50 knots. Surface temperatures should warm to around 90
ahead of the frontal boundary. MUCape values will be on the order
of 2000 to 3000 KG/J. A slight risk of severe storms looks
favorable Monday afternoon into Monday night for most of the area.
Looks like a squall line or possible MCS will be the main storm
mode and the main threat will be damaging wind gusts and large
hail.

The frontal boundary stalls out over the area Tuesday and will
continue a chance for additional convection and storms. The front
will wash out by Wednesday and rain chances go down. Will maintain
a dry and seasonable hot weather for the end of next week as it
looks like the upper level ridge of high pressure will be in
control of our weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 657 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Pilots will need to monitor for scattered showers and possibly a
thunderstorm today. Ceilings will be variable but in VFR category.
The exception will be localized MVFR conditions in the heavier
showers.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster






000
FXUS63 KSGF 301201
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
701 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 241 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A slowly weakening trough is moving into western Missouri this
morning. Within the past hour or so...scattered showers and a few
rumbles of thunder have develop across southwest Missouri into
Central Missouri. This activity will continue to move eastward
this morning. The best rain chances for today will be over the
eastern Ozarks as western areas will be mainly dry today. Highest
temperatures will be out west and slightly cooler out east. Quiet
and drier weather expected tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Sunday will be mostly hot and drier. There could be an isolated
shower or storm that pops up out to the far east but otherwise
looks good for outdoor activities areawide.

A better defined front will move into the area Monday afternoon
and night. Dynamics with this system and associated upper level
support is a little more interesting with that latest model
guidance.

Southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks will be in a right
entrance region of an upper level jet. Bulk shear will be between
40 to 50 knots. Surface temperatures should warm to around 90
ahead of the frontal boundary. MUCape values will be on the order
of 2000 to 3000 KG/J. A slight risk of severe storms looks
favorable Monday afternoon into Monday night for most of the area.
Looks like a squall line or possible MCS will be the main storm
mode and the main threat will be damaging wind gusts and large
hail.

The frontal boundary stalls out over the area Tuesday and will
continue a chance for additional convection and storms. The front
will wash out by Wednesday and rain chances go down. Will maintain
a dry and seasonable hot weather for the end of next week as it
looks like the upper level ridge of high pressure will be in
control of our weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 657 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Pilots will need to monitor for scattered showers and possibly a
thunderstorm today. Ceilings will be variable but in VFR category.
The exception will be localized MVFR conditions in the heavier
showers.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KEAX 301126
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
626 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Isolated storms associated with an eastward moving shortwave trough
are beginning to diminish across portions of northern Missouri, and
should gradually become confined to areas of central MO this morning
where a broad region of accas is currently evident. These storms
should also diminish after sunrise, and any potential redevelopment
this afternoon should be confined to our extreme southeast, along
and just north of the northern Ozarks.

As last evening`s shortwave trough departs to the northeast, another
more robust system will follow on its heels this weekend. Ahead of
the approaching trough, the thermal axis will shift into the central
and Plains, bringing 850 hPa temperatures into the 18 to 19 degree
range today and the 20 to 22 C range on Sunday. Enhanced southerly
flow on Sunday ahead of the approaching cold front will also help
temperatures rise, resulting in highs in the mid to upper 80s for
this afternoon and the upper 80s to lower 90s for Sunday.

The main focus in the short term will be storm chances from late
Sunday evening through Monday as the cold front slides southeastward
across the CWA. Timing has not changed significantly from earlier
model runs, and still indicates frontal passage around midnight in
far NW Missouri, and then a gradual slowing of the surface front
during the daylight hours Monday. Currently, the most likely
scenario is that fairly robust storms will develop along the cold
front in southeast NE and southwest IA, in an environment
characterized by 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE and 40-45 kts deep layer
shear. These storms will likely form some sort of convective complex
with shear vectors oriented nearly parallel to the surface front,
and cold pool dynamics will then send the complex out ahead of the
surface front after midnight. Storms may initially be strong to
possibly severe, but should eventually move into a less supportive
environment during the early morning hours Monday. Additional storms
may redevelop along the cold front behind the convective complex, but
should be less widespread and weaker in the worked-over environment.
Have generally decreased PoPs southeast of the KC metro area to
account for this scenario, but have kept up to 50 PoPs for Monday,
especially if some clearing occurs in central MO ahead of the front
and allows some instability to build before frontal passage occurs.
The main severe threat both days will be damaging wind, especially
from late evening Sunday through ~3-4 AM Monday across northwest MO
and far northeast KS, and possibly again late Monday afternoon in
central MO, although the shear is less impressive in these areas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

The upper trough begins to lift northeast away from the forecast
area at the start of the extended period Tuesday. At the surface, a
cold front is projected to have cleared much of the CWA by Tuesday
morning, but slowing or stalling over the northern Ozarks as the
upper trough departs. The frontal position will dictate best chances
for precipitation, which at this time should be largely confined to
the southern portions of the forecast area Tuesday and Tuesday
night. The surface boundary is expected to retreat northward as a
warm front on Wednesday as heights begin to rise across the region
in response to the upper pattern flattening. Only a slight chance of
thunderstorms is anticipated on Wednesday, with mainly dry
conditions through Thursday. Likewise, temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday will return to above normal readings in part to slightly
warming H85 temperatures as weak upper ridging moves into the
region, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s expected.
Models have decent agreement in the overall synoptic pattern by the
end of the work week, featuring an elongated positively-tilted
trough over the Intermountain West, but deviate with the placement
of a surface cold front over the Northern/Central Plains states. The
southernmost solutions take the frontal boundary as far south as
Northwest Missouri by Friday night, with others no further than
Interstate 80. With the uncertainty of frontal position and the
potential for some upstream convective development to approach the
CWA, will carry a chance of thunderstorms over northern Missouri
beginning late Thursday night into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
Patchy fog is possible over the next 1-2 hours in portions of far
northern MO, but is not expected to significantly reduce visibilities
at any of the TAF sites. Otherwise, skies will be mainly clear today
and north northwest winds will become light and variable this
evening, before acquiring a southeasterly direction tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KEAX 301126
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
626 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Isolated storms associated with an eastward moving shortwave trough
are beginning to diminish across portions of northern Missouri, and
should gradually become confined to areas of central MO this morning
where a broad region of accas is currently evident. These storms
should also diminish after sunrise, and any potential redevelopment
this afternoon should be confined to our extreme southeast, along
and just north of the northern Ozarks.

As last evening`s shortwave trough departs to the northeast, another
more robust system will follow on its heels this weekend. Ahead of
the approaching trough, the thermal axis will shift into the central
and Plains, bringing 850 hPa temperatures into the 18 to 19 degree
range today and the 20 to 22 C range on Sunday. Enhanced southerly
flow on Sunday ahead of the approaching cold front will also help
temperatures rise, resulting in highs in the mid to upper 80s for
this afternoon and the upper 80s to lower 90s for Sunday.

The main focus in the short term will be storm chances from late
Sunday evening through Monday as the cold front slides southeastward
across the CWA. Timing has not changed significantly from earlier
model runs, and still indicates frontal passage around midnight in
far NW Missouri, and then a gradual slowing of the surface front
during the daylight hours Monday. Currently, the most likely
scenario is that fairly robust storms will develop along the cold
front in southeast NE and southwest IA, in an environment
characterized by 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE and 40-45 kts deep layer
shear. These storms will likely form some sort of convective complex
with shear vectors oriented nearly parallel to the surface front,
and cold pool dynamics will then send the complex out ahead of the
surface front after midnight. Storms may initially be strong to
possibly severe, but should eventually move into a less supportive
environment during the early morning hours Monday. Additional storms
may redevelop along the cold front behind the convective complex, but
should be less widespread and weaker in the worked-over environment.
Have generally decreased PoPs southeast of the KC metro area to
account for this scenario, but have kept up to 50 PoPs for Monday,
especially if some clearing occurs in central MO ahead of the front
and allows some instability to build before frontal passage occurs.
The main severe threat both days will be damaging wind, especially
from late evening Sunday through ~3-4 AM Monday across northwest MO
and far northeast KS, and possibly again late Monday afternoon in
central MO, although the shear is less impressive in these areas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

The upper trough begins to lift northeast away from the forecast
area at the start of the extended period Tuesday. At the surface, a
cold front is projected to have cleared much of the CWA by Tuesday
morning, but slowing or stalling over the northern Ozarks as the
upper trough departs. The frontal position will dictate best chances
for precipitation, which at this time should be largely confined to
the southern portions of the forecast area Tuesday and Tuesday
night. The surface boundary is expected to retreat northward as a
warm front on Wednesday as heights begin to rise across the region
in response to the upper pattern flattening. Only a slight chance of
thunderstorms is anticipated on Wednesday, with mainly dry
conditions through Thursday. Likewise, temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday will return to above normal readings in part to slightly
warming H85 temperatures as weak upper ridging moves into the
region, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s expected.
Models have decent agreement in the overall synoptic pattern by the
end of the work week, featuring an elongated positively-tilted
trough over the Intermountain West, but deviate with the placement
of a surface cold front over the Northern/Central Plains states. The
southernmost solutions take the frontal boundary as far south as
Northwest Missouri by Friday night, with others no further than
Interstate 80. With the uncertainty of frontal position and the
potential for some upstream convective development to approach the
CWA, will carry a chance of thunderstorms over northern Missouri
beginning late Thursday night into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
Patchy fog is possible over the next 1-2 hours in portions of far
northern MO, but is not expected to significantly reduce visibilities
at any of the TAF sites. Otherwise, skies will be mainly clear today
and north northwest winds will become light and variable this
evening, before acquiring a southeasterly direction tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KEAX 301126
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
626 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Isolated storms associated with an eastward moving shortwave trough
are beginning to diminish across portions of northern Missouri, and
should gradually become confined to areas of central MO this morning
where a broad region of accas is currently evident. These storms
should also diminish after sunrise, and any potential redevelopment
this afternoon should be confined to our extreme southeast, along
and just north of the northern Ozarks.

As last evening`s shortwave trough departs to the northeast, another
more robust system will follow on its heels this weekend. Ahead of
the approaching trough, the thermal axis will shift into the central
and Plains, bringing 850 hPa temperatures into the 18 to 19 degree
range today and the 20 to 22 C range on Sunday. Enhanced southerly
flow on Sunday ahead of the approaching cold front will also help
temperatures rise, resulting in highs in the mid to upper 80s for
this afternoon and the upper 80s to lower 90s for Sunday.

The main focus in the short term will be storm chances from late
Sunday evening through Monday as the cold front slides southeastward
across the CWA. Timing has not changed significantly from earlier
model runs, and still indicates frontal passage around midnight in
far NW Missouri, and then a gradual slowing of the surface front
during the daylight hours Monday. Currently, the most likely
scenario is that fairly robust storms will develop along the cold
front in southeast NE and southwest IA, in an environment
characterized by 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE and 40-45 kts deep layer
shear. These storms will likely form some sort of convective complex
with shear vectors oriented nearly parallel to the surface front,
and cold pool dynamics will then send the complex out ahead of the
surface front after midnight. Storms may initially be strong to
possibly severe, but should eventually move into a less supportive
environment during the early morning hours Monday. Additional storms
may redevelop along the cold front behind the convective complex, but
should be less widespread and weaker in the worked-over environment.
Have generally decreased PoPs southeast of the KC metro area to
account for this scenario, but have kept up to 50 PoPs for Monday,
especially if some clearing occurs in central MO ahead of the front
and allows some instability to build before frontal passage occurs.
The main severe threat both days will be damaging wind, especially
from late evening Sunday through ~3-4 AM Monday across northwest MO
and far northeast KS, and possibly again late Monday afternoon in
central MO, although the shear is less impressive in these areas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

The upper trough begins to lift northeast away from the forecast
area at the start of the extended period Tuesday. At the surface, a
cold front is projected to have cleared much of the CWA by Tuesday
morning, but slowing or stalling over the northern Ozarks as the
upper trough departs. The frontal position will dictate best chances
for precipitation, which at this time should be largely confined to
the southern portions of the forecast area Tuesday and Tuesday
night. The surface boundary is expected to retreat northward as a
warm front on Wednesday as heights begin to rise across the region
in response to the upper pattern flattening. Only a slight chance of
thunderstorms is anticipated on Wednesday, with mainly dry
conditions through Thursday. Likewise, temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday will return to above normal readings in part to slightly
warming H85 temperatures as weak upper ridging moves into the
region, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s expected.
Models have decent agreement in the overall synoptic pattern by the
end of the work week, featuring an elongated positively-tilted
trough over the Intermountain West, but deviate with the placement
of a surface cold front over the Northern/Central Plains states. The
southernmost solutions take the frontal boundary as far south as
Northwest Missouri by Friday night, with others no further than
Interstate 80. With the uncertainty of frontal position and the
potential for some upstream convective development to approach the
CWA, will carry a chance of thunderstorms over northern Missouri
beginning late Thursday night into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
Patchy fog is possible over the next 1-2 hours in portions of far
northern MO, but is not expected to significantly reduce visibilities
at any of the TAF sites. Otherwise, skies will be mainly clear today
and north northwest winds will become light and variable this
evening, before acquiring a southeasterly direction tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KEAX 301126
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
626 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Isolated storms associated with an eastward moving shortwave trough
are beginning to diminish across portions of northern Missouri, and
should gradually become confined to areas of central MO this morning
where a broad region of accas is currently evident. These storms
should also diminish after sunrise, and any potential redevelopment
this afternoon should be confined to our extreme southeast, along
and just north of the northern Ozarks.

As last evening`s shortwave trough departs to the northeast, another
more robust system will follow on its heels this weekend. Ahead of
the approaching trough, the thermal axis will shift into the central
and Plains, bringing 850 hPa temperatures into the 18 to 19 degree
range today and the 20 to 22 C range on Sunday. Enhanced southerly
flow on Sunday ahead of the approaching cold front will also help
temperatures rise, resulting in highs in the mid to upper 80s for
this afternoon and the upper 80s to lower 90s for Sunday.

The main focus in the short term will be storm chances from late
Sunday evening through Monday as the cold front slides southeastward
across the CWA. Timing has not changed significantly from earlier
model runs, and still indicates frontal passage around midnight in
far NW Missouri, and then a gradual slowing of the surface front
during the daylight hours Monday. Currently, the most likely
scenario is that fairly robust storms will develop along the cold
front in southeast NE and southwest IA, in an environment
characterized by 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE and 40-45 kts deep layer
shear. These storms will likely form some sort of convective complex
with shear vectors oriented nearly parallel to the surface front,
and cold pool dynamics will then send the complex out ahead of the
surface front after midnight. Storms may initially be strong to
possibly severe, but should eventually move into a less supportive
environment during the early morning hours Monday. Additional storms
may redevelop along the cold front behind the convective complex, but
should be less widespread and weaker in the worked-over environment.
Have generally decreased PoPs southeast of the KC metro area to
account for this scenario, but have kept up to 50 PoPs for Monday,
especially if some clearing occurs in central MO ahead of the front
and allows some instability to build before frontal passage occurs.
The main severe threat both days will be damaging wind, especially
from late evening Sunday through ~3-4 AM Monday across northwest MO
and far northeast KS, and possibly again late Monday afternoon in
central MO, although the shear is less impressive in these areas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

The upper trough begins to lift northeast away from the forecast
area at the start of the extended period Tuesday. At the surface, a
cold front is projected to have cleared much of the CWA by Tuesday
morning, but slowing or stalling over the northern Ozarks as the
upper trough departs. The frontal position will dictate best chances
for precipitation, which at this time should be largely confined to
the southern portions of the forecast area Tuesday and Tuesday
night. The surface boundary is expected to retreat northward as a
warm front on Wednesday as heights begin to rise across the region
in response to the upper pattern flattening. Only a slight chance of
thunderstorms is anticipated on Wednesday, with mainly dry
conditions through Thursday. Likewise, temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday will return to above normal readings in part to slightly
warming H85 temperatures as weak upper ridging moves into the
region, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s expected.
Models have decent agreement in the overall synoptic pattern by the
end of the work week, featuring an elongated positively-tilted
trough over the Intermountain West, but deviate with the placement
of a surface cold front over the Northern/Central Plains states. The
southernmost solutions take the frontal boundary as far south as
Northwest Missouri by Friday night, with others no further than
Interstate 80. With the uncertainty of frontal position and the
potential for some upstream convective development to approach the
CWA, will carry a chance of thunderstorms over northern Missouri
beginning late Thursday night into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
Patchy fog is possible over the next 1-2 hours in portions of far
northern MO, but is not expected to significantly reduce visibilities
at any of the TAF sites. Otherwise, skies will be mainly clear today
and north northwest winds will become light and variable this
evening, before acquiring a southeasterly direction tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KLSX 300846
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
346 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Regional radar is showing a number of areas of showers and
thunderstorms across Missouri and western Illinois early this
morning. These are generally within a weak warm advection regime
ahead of a upper trof moving through the MS Valley and in advance
of the attendant cold front. While all the current activity should
continue moving east northeast this morning, the overall consensus
amongst the guidance and convection allowing models is that there
should be a general increase in the scattered activity currently
over southwest Missouri as the morning progresses and it moves
northeast. Additional development is also expected during the
later part of the morning into the afternoon in a broad southwest
to northeast zone ahead of the slowly advancing cold front and centered
through the southeast half of the CWA. Given the current temperatures
in the 70s, low-mid 80s looks reasonable for highs today.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Convective trends are not completely clear cut tonight. The main
upper trof axis should have passed to the east by early this
evening, but there is a weak lingering vort max still to pass and
the front appears to wash out across northeast Missouri and west
central Illinois. Sans the NAM, the model consensus keeps a chance
of showers and thunderstorms centered though the southeast half of
the CWA during the evening. Sunday looks largely dry and warmer
with possibly some isolated diurnal storms across southeast MO and
southwest Illinois. The threat of organized covection should
slowly spread into northeast Missouri late Sunday night with the
approach of a progressive long wave trof and attendant cold front and
intensifying southwesterly LLJ. Thunderstorms appear likely on
Labor Day and Monday night as the cold front moves slowly southward
into a moist unstable air mass, and as a southwesterly LLJ and the
upper trof contribute to lift and cap removal. This system will be
accompanied by deep layer shear of 30-40+ knots resulting in the
potential for organized severe storms. Showers and thunderstorms
could persist across the southern CWA Tuesday and maybe even into
Tuesday night and Wednesday in the vicinity of the front and then
as it retreats back northward late Wednesday.

Late in the week ahead the upper ridge is forecast to restablish
itself over the southeast half of the Nation, bringing a return of
more summer like weather/heat.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

There were two areas of showers and storms this evening. The first
was across southeast MO and will likely remain southeast of the
taf sites late tonight, although they could get close to CPS.
There were scattered showers/storms across northwest MO ahead of
an approaching upper level disturbance which may impact the UIN
area late tonight. May include VCTS in the UIN taf. It appears
that there will be enough cloud cover and strong enough surface
winds to deter fog formation, although could not rule out light
fog late tonight/early Saturday morning in SUS and CPS where the
surface wind will be a little lighter and in areas which had
significant rainfall this evening. Should be at least scattered
showers/storms in the St Louis metro area Saturday afternoon along
and ahead of weakening cold front/surface trough dropping
southeastward through the area. Sly surface winds will become
more swly late tonight and Saturday morning.

Specifics for KSTL: Current shower/storm activity on radar will
likely miss STL late tonight, although could not rule out a
passing sprinkle. Will likely leave STL taf dry late tonight and
Saturday morning due to uncertainty in coverage and timing of
additional convection. Will include VCTS in the taf Saturday
afternoon with at least scattered showers/storms expected at this
time due to diurnal destabilization along and ahead of a weak
surface trough/cold front. Prevailing s-swly surface winds through
the period.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     86  72  90  74 /  60  30  20  10
Quincy          84  67  88  71 /  30  10   5  50
Columbia        86  68  91  72 /  40  20  10  40
Jefferson City  86  69  91  72 /  50  20  10  30
Salem           85  70  86  72 /  60  50  20  10
Farmington      84  69  87  72 /  60  50  20  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 300846
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
346 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Regional radar is showing a number of areas of showers and
thunderstorms across Missouri and western Illinois early this
morning. These are generally within a weak warm advection regime
ahead of a upper trof moving through the MS Valley and in advance
of the attendant cold front. While all the current activity should
continue moving east northeast this morning, the overall consensus
amongst the guidance and convection allowing models is that there
should be a general increase in the scattered activity currently
over southwest Missouri as the morning progresses and it moves
northeast. Additional development is also expected during the
later part of the morning into the afternoon in a broad southwest
to northeast zone ahead of the slowly advancing cold front and centered
through the southeast half of the CWA. Given the current temperatures
in the 70s, low-mid 80s looks reasonable for highs today.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Convective trends are not completely clear cut tonight. The main
upper trof axis should have passed to the east by early this
evening, but there is a weak lingering vort max still to pass and
the front appears to wash out across northeast Missouri and west
central Illinois. Sans the NAM, the model consensus keeps a chance
of showers and thunderstorms centered though the southeast half of
the CWA during the evening. Sunday looks largely dry and warmer
with possibly some isolated diurnal storms across southeast MO and
southwest Illinois. The threat of organized covection should
slowly spread into northeast Missouri late Sunday night with the
approach of a progressive long wave trof and attendant cold front and
intensifying southwesterly LLJ. Thunderstorms appear likely on
Labor Day and Monday night as the cold front moves slowly southward
into a moist unstable air mass, and as a southwesterly LLJ and the
upper trof contribute to lift and cap removal. This system will be
accompanied by deep layer shear of 30-40+ knots resulting in the
potential for organized severe storms. Showers and thunderstorms
could persist across the southern CWA Tuesday and maybe even into
Tuesday night and Wednesday in the vicinity of the front and then
as it retreats back northward late Wednesday.

Late in the week ahead the upper ridge is forecast to restablish
itself over the southeast half of the Nation, bringing a return of
more summer like weather/heat.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

There were two areas of showers and storms this evening. The first
was across southeast MO and will likely remain southeast of the
taf sites late tonight, although they could get close to CPS.
There were scattered showers/storms across northwest MO ahead of
an approaching upper level disturbance which may impact the UIN
area late tonight. May include VCTS in the UIN taf. It appears
that there will be enough cloud cover and strong enough surface
winds to deter fog formation, although could not rule out light
fog late tonight/early Saturday morning in SUS and CPS where the
surface wind will be a little lighter and in areas which had
significant rainfall this evening. Should be at least scattered
showers/storms in the St Louis metro area Saturday afternoon along
and ahead of weakening cold front/surface trough dropping
southeastward through the area. Sly surface winds will become
more swly late tonight and Saturday morning.

Specifics for KSTL: Current shower/storm activity on radar will
likely miss STL late tonight, although could not rule out a
passing sprinkle. Will likely leave STL taf dry late tonight and
Saturday morning due to uncertainty in coverage and timing of
additional convection. Will include VCTS in the taf Saturday
afternoon with at least scattered showers/storms expected at this
time due to diurnal destabilization along and ahead of a weak
surface trough/cold front. Prevailing s-swly surface winds through
the period.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     86  72  90  74 /  60  30  20  10
Quincy          84  67  88  71 /  30  10   5  50
Columbia        86  68  91  72 /  40  20  10  40
Jefferson City  86  69  91  72 /  50  20  10  30
Salem           85  70  86  72 /  60  50  20  10
Farmington      84  69  87  72 /  60  50  20  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 300846
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
346 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Regional radar is showing a number of areas of showers and
thunderstorms across Missouri and western Illinois early this
morning. These are generally within a weak warm advection regime
ahead of a upper trof moving through the MS Valley and in advance
of the attendant cold front. While all the current activity should
continue moving east northeast this morning, the overall consensus
amongst the guidance and convection allowing models is that there
should be a general increase in the scattered activity currently
over southwest Missouri as the morning progresses and it moves
northeast. Additional development is also expected during the
later part of the morning into the afternoon in a broad southwest
to northeast zone ahead of the slowly advancing cold front and centered
through the southeast half of the CWA. Given the current temperatures
in the 70s, low-mid 80s looks reasonable for highs today.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Convective trends are not completely clear cut tonight. The main
upper trof axis should have passed to the east by early this
evening, but there is a weak lingering vort max still to pass and
the front appears to wash out across northeast Missouri and west
central Illinois. Sans the NAM, the model consensus keeps a chance
of showers and thunderstorms centered though the southeast half of
the CWA during the evening. Sunday looks largely dry and warmer
with possibly some isolated diurnal storms across southeast MO and
southwest Illinois. The threat of organized covection should
slowly spread into northeast Missouri late Sunday night with the
approach of a progressive long wave trof and attendant cold front and
intensifying southwesterly LLJ. Thunderstorms appear likely on
Labor Day and Monday night as the cold front moves slowly southward
into a moist unstable air mass, and as a southwesterly LLJ and the
upper trof contribute to lift and cap removal. This system will be
accompanied by deep layer shear of 30-40+ knots resulting in the
potential for organized severe storms. Showers and thunderstorms
could persist across the southern CWA Tuesday and maybe even into
Tuesday night and Wednesday in the vicinity of the front and then
as it retreats back northward late Wednesday.

Late in the week ahead the upper ridge is forecast to restablish
itself over the southeast half of the Nation, bringing a return of
more summer like weather/heat.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

There were two areas of showers and storms this evening. The first
was across southeast MO and will likely remain southeast of the
taf sites late tonight, although they could get close to CPS.
There were scattered showers/storms across northwest MO ahead of
an approaching upper level disturbance which may impact the UIN
area late tonight. May include VCTS in the UIN taf. It appears
that there will be enough cloud cover and strong enough surface
winds to deter fog formation, although could not rule out light
fog late tonight/early Saturday morning in SUS and CPS where the
surface wind will be a little lighter and in areas which had
significant rainfall this evening. Should be at least scattered
showers/storms in the St Louis metro area Saturday afternoon along
and ahead of weakening cold front/surface trough dropping
southeastward through the area. Sly surface winds will become
more swly late tonight and Saturday morning.

Specifics for KSTL: Current shower/storm activity on radar will
likely miss STL late tonight, although could not rule out a
passing sprinkle. Will likely leave STL taf dry late tonight and
Saturday morning due to uncertainty in coverage and timing of
additional convection. Will include VCTS in the taf Saturday
afternoon with at least scattered showers/storms expected at this
time due to diurnal destabilization along and ahead of a weak
surface trough/cold front. Prevailing s-swly surface winds through
the period.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     86  72  90  74 /  60  30  20  10
Quincy          84  67  88  71 /  30  10   5  50
Columbia        86  68  91  72 /  40  20  10  40
Jefferson City  86  69  91  72 /  50  20  10  30
Salem           85  70  86  72 /  60  50  20  10
Farmington      84  69  87  72 /  60  50  20  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 300846
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
346 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Regional radar is showing a number of areas of showers and
thunderstorms across Missouri and western Illinois early this
morning. These are generally within a weak warm advection regime
ahead of a upper trof moving through the MS Valley and in advance
of the attendant cold front. While all the current activity should
continue moving east northeast this morning, the overall consensus
amongst the guidance and convection allowing models is that there
should be a general increase in the scattered activity currently
over southwest Missouri as the morning progresses and it moves
northeast. Additional development is also expected during the
later part of the morning into the afternoon in a broad southwest
to northeast zone ahead of the slowly advancing cold front and centered
through the southeast half of the CWA. Given the current temperatures
in the 70s, low-mid 80s looks reasonable for highs today.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Convective trends are not completely clear cut tonight. The main
upper trof axis should have passed to the east by early this
evening, but there is a weak lingering vort max still to pass and
the front appears to wash out across northeast Missouri and west
central Illinois. Sans the NAM, the model consensus keeps a chance
of showers and thunderstorms centered though the southeast half of
the CWA during the evening. Sunday looks largely dry and warmer
with possibly some isolated diurnal storms across southeast MO and
southwest Illinois. The threat of organized covection should
slowly spread into northeast Missouri late Sunday night with the
approach of a progressive long wave trof and attendant cold front and
intensifying southwesterly LLJ. Thunderstorms appear likely on
Labor Day and Monday night as the cold front moves slowly southward
into a moist unstable air mass, and as a southwesterly LLJ and the
upper trof contribute to lift and cap removal. This system will be
accompanied by deep layer shear of 30-40+ knots resulting in the
potential for organized severe storms. Showers and thunderstorms
could persist across the southern CWA Tuesday and maybe even into
Tuesday night and Wednesday in the vicinity of the front and then
as it retreats back northward late Wednesday.

Late in the week ahead the upper ridge is forecast to restablish
itself over the southeast half of the Nation, bringing a return of
more summer like weather/heat.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

There were two areas of showers and storms this evening. The first
was across southeast MO and will likely remain southeast of the
taf sites late tonight, although they could get close to CPS.
There were scattered showers/storms across northwest MO ahead of
an approaching upper level disturbance which may impact the UIN
area late tonight. May include VCTS in the UIN taf. It appears
that there will be enough cloud cover and strong enough surface
winds to deter fog formation, although could not rule out light
fog late tonight/early Saturday morning in SUS and CPS where the
surface wind will be a little lighter and in areas which had
significant rainfall this evening. Should be at least scattered
showers/storms in the St Louis metro area Saturday afternoon along
and ahead of weakening cold front/surface trough dropping
southeastward through the area. Sly surface winds will become
more swly late tonight and Saturday morning.

Specifics for KSTL: Current shower/storm activity on radar will
likely miss STL late tonight, although could not rule out a
passing sprinkle. Will likely leave STL taf dry late tonight and
Saturday morning due to uncertainty in coverage and timing of
additional convection. Will include VCTS in the taf Saturday
afternoon with at least scattered showers/storms expected at this
time due to diurnal destabilization along and ahead of a weak
surface trough/cold front. Prevailing s-swly surface winds through
the period.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     86  72  90  74 /  60  30  20  10
Quincy          84  67  88  71 /  30  10   5  50
Columbia        86  68  91  72 /  40  20  10  40
Jefferson City  86  69  91  72 /  50  20  10  30
Salem           85  70  86  72 /  60  50  20  10
Farmington      84  69  87  72 /  60  50  20  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 300833
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
333 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Isolated storms associated with an eastward moving shortwave trough
are beginning to diminish across portions of northern Missouri, and
should gradually become confined to areas of central MO this morning
where a broad region of accas is currently evident. These storms
should also diminish after sunrise, and any potential redevelopment
this afternoon should be confined to our extreme southeast, along
and just north of the northern Ozarks.

As last evening`s shortwave trough departs to the northeast, another
more robust system will follow on its heels this weekend. Ahead of
the approaching trough, the thermal axis will shift into the central
and Plains, bringing 850 hPa temperatures into the 18 to 19 degree
range today and the 20 to 22 C range on Sunday. Enhanced southerly
flow on Sunday ahead of the approaching cold front will also help
temperatures rise, resulting in highs in the mid to upper 80s for
this afternoon and the upper 80s to lower 90s for Sunday.

The main focus in the short term will be storm chances from late
Sunday evening through Monday as the cold front slides southeastward
across the CWA. Timing has not changed significantly from earlier
model runs, and still indicates frontal passage around midnight in
far NW Missouri, and then a gradual slowing of the surface front
during the daylight hours Monday. Currently, the most likely
scenario is that fairly robust storms will develop along the cold
front in southeast NE and southwest IA, in an environment
characterized by 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE and 40-45 kts deep layer
shear. These storms will likely form some sort of convective complex
with shear vectors oriented nearly parallel to the surface front,
and cold pool dynamics will then send the complex out ahead of the
surface front after midnight. Storms may initially be strong to
possibly severe, but should eventually move into a less supportive
environment during the early morning hours Monday. Additional storms
may redevelop along the cold front behind the convective complex, but
should be less widespread and weaker in the worked-over environment.
Have generally decreased PoPs southeast of the KC metro area to
account for this scenario, but have kept up to 50 PoPs for Monday,
especially if some clearing occurs in central MO ahead of the front
and allows some instability to build before frontal passage occurs.
The main severe threat both days will be damaging wind, especially
from late evening Sunday through ~3-4 AM Monday across northwest MO
and far northeast KS, and possibly again late Monday afternoon in
central MO, although the shear is less impressive in these areas.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

The upper trough begins to lift northeast away from the forecast
area at the start of the extended period Tuesday. At the surface, a
cold front is projected to have cleared much of the CWA by Tuesday
morning, but slowing or stalling over the northern Ozarks as the
upper trough departs. The frontal position will dictate best chances
for precipitation, which at this time should be largely confined to
the southern portions of the forecast area Tuesday and Tuesday
night. The surface boundary is expected to retreat northward as a
warm front on Wednesday as heights begin to rise across the region
in response to the upper pattern flattening. Only a slight chance of
thunderstorms is anticipated on Wednesday, with mainly dry
conditions through Thursday. Likewise, temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday will return to above normal readings in part to slightly
warming H85 temperatures as weak upper ridging moves into the
region, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s expected.
Models have decent agreement in the overall synoptic pattern by the
end of the work week, featuring an elongated positively-tilted
trough over the Intermountain West, but deviate with the placement
of a surface cold front over the Northern/Central Plains states. The
southernmost solutions take the frontal boundary as far south as
Northwest Missouri by Friday night, with others no further than
Interstate 80. With the uncertainty of frontal position and the
potential for some upstream convective development to approach the
CWA, will carry a chance of thunderstorms over northern Missouri
beginning late Thursday night into the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Thunderstorms continue to percolate around the Kansas City terminals
late tonight, but this activity is not expected to last much longer.
By the time the TAF is valid expectations are that the thunderstorms
activity will have moved to the east or dissipated. Therefore, only
issue in the TAF is the potential for MVFR to IFR fog as skies clear
in the wake of the storms. Winds this morning will be light and
variable which will likely result in at least some haze. Have kept IFR
conditions in for the KSTJ terminal. Otherwise, Light winds will
remain rather variable through the day Saturday, with speeds under `10
knots expected through the day.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KEAX 300833
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
333 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Isolated storms associated with an eastward moving shortwave trough
are beginning to diminish across portions of northern Missouri, and
should gradually become confined to areas of central MO this morning
where a broad region of accas is currently evident. These storms
should also diminish after sunrise, and any potential redevelopment
this afternoon should be confined to our extreme southeast, along
and just north of the northern Ozarks.

As last evening`s shortwave trough departs to the northeast, another
more robust system will follow on its heels this weekend. Ahead of
the approaching trough, the thermal axis will shift into the central
and Plains, bringing 850 hPa temperatures into the 18 to 19 degree
range today and the 20 to 22 C range on Sunday. Enhanced southerly
flow on Sunday ahead of the approaching cold front will also help
temperatures rise, resulting in highs in the mid to upper 80s for
this afternoon and the upper 80s to lower 90s for Sunday.

The main focus in the short term will be storm chances from late
Sunday evening through Monday as the cold front slides southeastward
across the CWA. Timing has not changed significantly from earlier
model runs, and still indicates frontal passage around midnight in
far NW Missouri, and then a gradual slowing of the surface front
during the daylight hours Monday. Currently, the most likely
scenario is that fairly robust storms will develop along the cold
front in southeast NE and southwest IA, in an environment
characterized by 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE and 40-45 kts deep layer
shear. These storms will likely form some sort of convective complex
with shear vectors oriented nearly parallel to the surface front,
and cold pool dynamics will then send the complex out ahead of the
surface front after midnight. Storms may initially be strong to
possibly severe, but should eventually move into a less supportive
environment during the early morning hours Monday. Additional storms
may redevelop along the cold front behind the convective complex, but
should be less widespread and weaker in the worked-over environment.
Have generally decreased PoPs southeast of the KC metro area to
account for this scenario, but have kept up to 50 PoPs for Monday,
especially if some clearing occurs in central MO ahead of the front
and allows some instability to build before frontal passage occurs.
The main severe threat both days will be damaging wind, especially
from late evening Sunday through ~3-4 AM Monday across northwest MO
and far northeast KS, and possibly again late Monday afternoon in
central MO, although the shear is less impressive in these areas.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

The upper trough begins to lift northeast away from the forecast
area at the start of the extended period Tuesday. At the surface, a
cold front is projected to have cleared much of the CWA by Tuesday
morning, but slowing or stalling over the northern Ozarks as the
upper trough departs. The frontal position will dictate best chances
for precipitation, which at this time should be largely confined to
the southern portions of the forecast area Tuesday and Tuesday
night. The surface boundary is expected to retreat northward as a
warm front on Wednesday as heights begin to rise across the region
in response to the upper pattern flattening. Only a slight chance of
thunderstorms is anticipated on Wednesday, with mainly dry
conditions through Thursday. Likewise, temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday will return to above normal readings in part to slightly
warming H85 temperatures as weak upper ridging moves into the
region, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s expected.
Models have decent agreement in the overall synoptic pattern by the
end of the work week, featuring an elongated positively-tilted
trough over the Intermountain West, but deviate with the placement
of a surface cold front over the Northern/Central Plains states. The
southernmost solutions take the frontal boundary as far south as
Northwest Missouri by Friday night, with others no further than
Interstate 80. With the uncertainty of frontal position and the
potential for some upstream convective development to approach the
CWA, will carry a chance of thunderstorms over northern Missouri
beginning late Thursday night into the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Thunderstorms continue to percolate around the Kansas City terminals
late tonight, but this activity is not expected to last much longer.
By the time the TAF is valid expectations are that the thunderstorms
activity will have moved to the east or dissipated. Therefore, only
issue in the TAF is the potential for MVFR to IFR fog as skies clear
in the wake of the storms. Winds this morning will be light and
variable which will likely result in at least some haze. Have kept IFR
conditions in for the KSTJ terminal. Otherwise, Light winds will
remain rather variable through the day Saturday, with speeds under `10
knots expected through the day.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KEAX 300833
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
333 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Isolated storms associated with an eastward moving shortwave trough
are beginning to diminish across portions of northern Missouri, and
should gradually become confined to areas of central MO this morning
where a broad region of accas is currently evident. These storms
should also diminish after sunrise, and any potential redevelopment
this afternoon should be confined to our extreme southeast, along
and just north of the northern Ozarks.

As last evening`s shortwave trough departs to the northeast, another
more robust system will follow on its heels this weekend. Ahead of
the approaching trough, the thermal axis will shift into the central
and Plains, bringing 850 hPa temperatures into the 18 to 19 degree
range today and the 20 to 22 C range on Sunday. Enhanced southerly
flow on Sunday ahead of the approaching cold front will also help
temperatures rise, resulting in highs in the mid to upper 80s for
this afternoon and the upper 80s to lower 90s for Sunday.

The main focus in the short term will be storm chances from late
Sunday evening through Monday as the cold front slides southeastward
across the CWA. Timing has not changed significantly from earlier
model runs, and still indicates frontal passage around midnight in
far NW Missouri, and then a gradual slowing of the surface front
during the daylight hours Monday. Currently, the most likely
scenario is that fairly robust storms will develop along the cold
front in southeast NE and southwest IA, in an environment
characterized by 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE and 40-45 kts deep layer
shear. These storms will likely form some sort of convective complex
with shear vectors oriented nearly parallel to the surface front,
and cold pool dynamics will then send the complex out ahead of the
surface front after midnight. Storms may initially be strong to
possibly severe, but should eventually move into a less supportive
environment during the early morning hours Monday. Additional storms
may redevelop along the cold front behind the convective complex, but
should be less widespread and weaker in the worked-over environment.
Have generally decreased PoPs southeast of the KC metro area to
account for this scenario, but have kept up to 50 PoPs for Monday,
especially if some clearing occurs in central MO ahead of the front
and allows some instability to build before frontal passage occurs.
The main severe threat both days will be damaging wind, especially
from late evening Sunday through ~3-4 AM Monday across northwest MO
and far northeast KS, and possibly again late Monday afternoon in
central MO, although the shear is less impressive in these areas.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

The upper trough begins to lift northeast away from the forecast
area at the start of the extended period Tuesday. At the surface, a
cold front is projected to have cleared much of the CWA by Tuesday
morning, but slowing or stalling over the northern Ozarks as the
upper trough departs. The frontal position will dictate best chances
for precipitation, which at this time should be largely confined to
the southern portions of the forecast area Tuesday and Tuesday
night. The surface boundary is expected to retreat northward as a
warm front on Wednesday as heights begin to rise across the region
in response to the upper pattern flattening. Only a slight chance of
thunderstorms is anticipated on Wednesday, with mainly dry
conditions through Thursday. Likewise, temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday will return to above normal readings in part to slightly
warming H85 temperatures as weak upper ridging moves into the
region, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s expected.
Models have decent agreement in the overall synoptic pattern by the
end of the work week, featuring an elongated positively-tilted
trough over the Intermountain West, but deviate with the placement
of a surface cold front over the Northern/Central Plains states. The
southernmost solutions take the frontal boundary as far south as
Northwest Missouri by Friday night, with others no further than
Interstate 80. With the uncertainty of frontal position and the
potential for some upstream convective development to approach the
CWA, will carry a chance of thunderstorms over northern Missouri
beginning late Thursday night into the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Thunderstorms continue to percolate around the Kansas City terminals
late tonight, but this activity is not expected to last much longer.
By the time the TAF is valid expectations are that the thunderstorms
activity will have moved to the east or dissipated. Therefore, only
issue in the TAF is the potential for MVFR to IFR fog as skies clear
in the wake of the storms. Winds this morning will be light and
variable which will likely result in at least some haze. Have kept IFR
conditions in for the KSTJ terminal. Otherwise, Light winds will
remain rather variable through the day Saturday, with speeds under `10
knots expected through the day.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KEAX 300833
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
333 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Isolated storms associated with an eastward moving shortwave trough
are beginning to diminish across portions of northern Missouri, and
should gradually become confined to areas of central MO this morning
where a broad region of accas is currently evident. These storms
should also diminish after sunrise, and any potential redevelopment
this afternoon should be confined to our extreme southeast, along
and just north of the northern Ozarks.

As last evening`s shortwave trough departs to the northeast, another
more robust system will follow on its heels this weekend. Ahead of
the approaching trough, the thermal axis will shift into the central
and Plains, bringing 850 hPa temperatures into the 18 to 19 degree
range today and the 20 to 22 C range on Sunday. Enhanced southerly
flow on Sunday ahead of the approaching cold front will also help
temperatures rise, resulting in highs in the mid to upper 80s for
this afternoon and the upper 80s to lower 90s for Sunday.

The main focus in the short term will be storm chances from late
Sunday evening through Monday as the cold front slides southeastward
across the CWA. Timing has not changed significantly from earlier
model runs, and still indicates frontal passage around midnight in
far NW Missouri, and then a gradual slowing of the surface front
during the daylight hours Monday. Currently, the most likely
scenario is that fairly robust storms will develop along the cold
front in southeast NE and southwest IA, in an environment
characterized by 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE and 40-45 kts deep layer
shear. These storms will likely form some sort of convective complex
with shear vectors oriented nearly parallel to the surface front,
and cold pool dynamics will then send the complex out ahead of the
surface front after midnight. Storms may initially be strong to
possibly severe, but should eventually move into a less supportive
environment during the early morning hours Monday. Additional storms
may redevelop along the cold front behind the convective complex, but
should be less widespread and weaker in the worked-over environment.
Have generally decreased PoPs southeast of the KC metro area to
account for this scenario, but have kept up to 50 PoPs for Monday,
especially if some clearing occurs in central MO ahead of the front
and allows some instability to build before frontal passage occurs.
The main severe threat both days will be damaging wind, especially
from late evening Sunday through ~3-4 AM Monday across northwest MO
and far northeast KS, and possibly again late Monday afternoon in
central MO, although the shear is less impressive in these areas.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

The upper trough begins to lift northeast away from the forecast
area at the start of the extended period Tuesday. At the surface, a
cold front is projected to have cleared much of the CWA by Tuesday
morning, but slowing or stalling over the northern Ozarks as the
upper trough departs. The frontal position will dictate best chances
for precipitation, which at this time should be largely confined to
the southern portions of the forecast area Tuesday and Tuesday
night. The surface boundary is expected to retreat northward as a
warm front on Wednesday as heights begin to rise across the region
in response to the upper pattern flattening. Only a slight chance of
thunderstorms is anticipated on Wednesday, with mainly dry
conditions through Thursday. Likewise, temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday will return to above normal readings in part to slightly
warming H85 temperatures as weak upper ridging moves into the
region, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s expected.
Models have decent agreement in the overall synoptic pattern by the
end of the work week, featuring an elongated positively-tilted
trough over the Intermountain West, but deviate with the placement
of a surface cold front over the Northern/Central Plains states. The
southernmost solutions take the frontal boundary as far south as
Northwest Missouri by Friday night, with others no further than
Interstate 80. With the uncertainty of frontal position and the
potential for some upstream convective development to approach the
CWA, will carry a chance of thunderstorms over northern Missouri
beginning late Thursday night into the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Thunderstorms continue to percolate around the Kansas City terminals
late tonight, but this activity is not expected to last much longer.
By the time the TAF is valid expectations are that the thunderstorms
activity will have moved to the east or dissipated. Therefore, only
issue in the TAF is the potential for MVFR to IFR fog as skies clear
in the wake of the storms. Winds this morning will be light and
variable which will likely result in at least some haze. Have kept IFR
conditions in for the KSTJ terminal. Otherwise, Light winds will
remain rather variable through the day Saturday, with speeds under `10
knots expected through the day.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KSGF 300757
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
257 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 241 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A slowly weakening trough is moving into western Missouri this
morning. Within the past hour or so...scattered showers and a few
rumbles of thunder have develop across southwest Missouri into
Central Missouri. This activity will continue to move eastward
this morning. The best rain chances for today will be over the
eastern Ozarks as western areas will be mainly dry today. Highest
temperatures will be out west and slightly cooler out east. Quiet
and drier weather expected tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Sunday will be mostly hot and drier. There could be an isolated
shower or storm that pops up out to the far east but otherwise
looks good for outdoor activities areawide.

A better defined front will move into the area Monday afternoon
and night. Dynamics with this system and associated upper level
support is a little more interesting with that latest model
guidance.

Southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks will be in a right
entrance region of an upper level jet. Bulk shear will be between
40 to 50 knots. Surface temperatures should warm to around 90
ahead of the frontal boundary. MUCape values will be on the order
of 2000 to 3000 KG/J. A slight risk of severe storms looks
favorable Monday afternoon into Monday night for most of the area.
Looks like a squall line or possible MCS will be the main storm
mode and the main threat will be damaging wind gusts and large
hail.

The frontal boundary stalls out over the area Tuesday and will
continue a chance for additional convection and storms. The front
will wash out by Wednesday and rain chances go down. Will maintain
a dry and seasonable hot weather for the end of next week as it
looks like the upper level ridge of high pressure will be in
control of our weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

We have a shortwave pushing from west to east across the area
tonight with any remaining convection to the east of the forecast
terminals. Frontal boundary is still to the west but not seeing
much in the way of development along the front at this point.
Wouldn`t be surprised to see some scattered convection redevelop,
however confidence on convection hitting any of the terminal
locations is fairly low so will hold off on putting in TAFS for
the 06z issuance at this time. Expecting VFR conditions through
the period.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 300757
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
257 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 241 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A slowly weakening trough is moving into western Missouri this
morning. Within the past hour or so...scattered showers and a few
rumbles of thunder have develop across southwest Missouri into
Central Missouri. This activity will continue to move eastward
this morning. The best rain chances for today will be over the
eastern Ozarks as western areas will be mainly dry today. Highest
temperatures will be out west and slightly cooler out east. Quiet
and drier weather expected tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Sunday will be mostly hot and drier. There could be an isolated
shower or storm that pops up out to the far east but otherwise
looks good for outdoor activities areawide.

A better defined front will move into the area Monday afternoon
and night. Dynamics with this system and associated upper level
support is a little more interesting with that latest model
guidance.

Southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks will be in a right
entrance region of an upper level jet. Bulk shear will be between
40 to 50 knots. Surface temperatures should warm to around 90
ahead of the frontal boundary. MUCape values will be on the order
of 2000 to 3000 KG/J. A slight risk of severe storms looks
favorable Monday afternoon into Monday night for most of the area.
Looks like a squall line or possible MCS will be the main storm
mode and the main threat will be damaging wind gusts and large
hail.

The frontal boundary stalls out over the area Tuesday and will
continue a chance for additional convection and storms. The front
will wash out by Wednesday and rain chances go down. Will maintain
a dry and seasonable hot weather for the end of next week as it
looks like the upper level ridge of high pressure will be in
control of our weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

We have a shortwave pushing from west to east across the area
tonight with any remaining convection to the east of the forecast
terminals. Frontal boundary is still to the west but not seeing
much in the way of development along the front at this point.
Wouldn`t be surprised to see some scattered convection redevelop,
however confidence on convection hitting any of the terminal
locations is fairly low so will hold off on putting in TAFS for
the 06z issuance at this time. Expecting VFR conditions through
the period.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KEAX 300506
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1206 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Out of the gate this afternoon...first round of convection continuing
to track east-northeast as initial shot of vorticity and pressure
advection associated with inbound upper wave slides east across the
region. Upstream behind this afternoon/s activity...skies have
cleared and weak destabilization has occurred with latest SPC
mesoanalysis suggesting anywhere between 1000-1500 J/Kg of MLCAPE
exists across eastern KS and western MO. Heading into the late
afternoon...main concern is for redeveloping convection as next piece
of shortwave energy and associated vorticity slides over the area. As
this occurs...long-lived frontal boundary which has been in place
across the central Plains in recent days should slowly slide across
the region which should also help with possible redevelopment. Fcst
models have been playing this card quite well with latest HRRR high-
res data supporting renewed convection across eastern KS this afternoon.
For now...have advertised chc pops pretty much across the western
2/3rds of the fcst area...before gradually spreading them east during
the early overnight period. In terms of severe threats...latest
mesoanalysis shows fairly weak shear aloft. This along with a DCAPE
min/trough across our region should largely prevent widespread
severe. That said though...a few strong downbursts cannot be ruled
out if convection actually does develop.

Main front to slide through the forecast area tonight as discussed
above. This should result in a gradual decrease in storm coverage
from west to east during the early morning hrs if storms do in fact
develop. Overnight lows tonight will largely reside in the middle to
upper 60s.

By all accounts...upcoming holiday weekend shaping up to be
beautiful...at least early on that is as region will reside in a post
frontal airmass both Saturday and Sunday. Despite the fropa
tonight...limited to no cooling seeing in the 850-mb temp field thus
expect high temps in the mid to upper 80s on Saturday...and
potentially into the lower to middle 90s on Sunday as warm air
advection increases ahead of next incoming wave/front.

Much more interesting weather by Sunday night/early Monday as well
advertised longwave trough continues to dig along the Front Range. As
this occurs...cyclogenesis expected across the northern Plains with
strengthening future then expected to quickly exit into the upper
Miss Vly/western Great Lakes region by early Monday. The end result
for our area will be a slowly progressing cold front which will begin
sliding south during this period...with increasing chances for rain
from Sunday night through the Tuesday time frame. Main issue seen
from this vantage point is that this feature will likely stall
somewhere across central Missouri as it begins to interact with stout
sfc ridging in place across the lwr Miss Vly and southern Plains. A
severe wx concern initially Sunday night may quickly morph into a
hydro concern as continued moisture advection resulting from a
strengthening low-level jet of 2-3 standard deviations above normal
ascends the stalled feature and cloud layer winds remain parallel to
the front. Will have to maintain vigilance with this feature as many
locations across our northwestern zones have received heavy rainfall
in recent days. If severe wx were to develop Sunday night...bulk
shear vectors orientation parallel to the incoming front will likely
support multicell type storm morphologies...with high winds winds
posing the biggest threat before concerns change over to possible
heavy rain. That said...better frontal convergence for forced ascent
will likely remain north of our fcst area which could ultimately
limit the severe threat for our region. In any event...both flooding
and possible severe pose a risk as seen this afternoon and will
maintain mention in the HWO product for now.

Beyond this...returning southerly flow will finally lift the front
north across the region with dry weather returning in its wake by
midweek. With zonal flow expected to dominate across the lower
48...temps through the conclusion of the period should remain near or
slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Thunderstorms continue to percolate around the Kansas City terminals
late tonight, but this activity is not expected to last much longer.
By the time the TAF is valid expectations are that the thunderstorms
activity will have moved to the east or dissipated. Therefore, only
issue in the TAF is the potential for MVFR to IFR fog as skies clear
in the wake of the storms. Winds this morning will be light and
variable which will likely result in at least some haze. Have kept IFR
conditions in for the KSTJ terminal. Otherwise, Light winds will
remain rather variable through the day Saturday, with speeds under `10
knots expected through the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 300506
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1206 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Out of the gate this afternoon...first round of convection continuing
to track east-northeast as initial shot of vorticity and pressure
advection associated with inbound upper wave slides east across the
region. Upstream behind this afternoon/s activity...skies have
cleared and weak destabilization has occurred with latest SPC
mesoanalysis suggesting anywhere between 1000-1500 J/Kg of MLCAPE
exists across eastern KS and western MO. Heading into the late
afternoon...main concern is for redeveloping convection as next piece
of shortwave energy and associated vorticity slides over the area. As
this occurs...long-lived frontal boundary which has been in place
across the central Plains in recent days should slowly slide across
the region which should also help with possible redevelopment. Fcst
models have been playing this card quite well with latest HRRR high-
res data supporting renewed convection across eastern KS this afternoon.
For now...have advertised chc pops pretty much across the western
2/3rds of the fcst area...before gradually spreading them east during
the early overnight period. In terms of severe threats...latest
mesoanalysis shows fairly weak shear aloft. This along with a DCAPE
min/trough across our region should largely prevent widespread
severe. That said though...a few strong downbursts cannot be ruled
out if convection actually does develop.

Main front to slide through the forecast area tonight as discussed
above. This should result in a gradual decrease in storm coverage
from west to east during the early morning hrs if storms do in fact
develop. Overnight lows tonight will largely reside in the middle to
upper 60s.

By all accounts...upcoming holiday weekend shaping up to be
beautiful...at least early on that is as region will reside in a post
frontal airmass both Saturday and Sunday. Despite the fropa
tonight...limited to no cooling seeing in the 850-mb temp field thus
expect high temps in the mid to upper 80s on Saturday...and
potentially into the lower to middle 90s on Sunday as warm air
advection increases ahead of next incoming wave/front.

Much more interesting weather by Sunday night/early Monday as well
advertised longwave trough continues to dig along the Front Range. As
this occurs...cyclogenesis expected across the northern Plains with
strengthening future then expected to quickly exit into the upper
Miss Vly/western Great Lakes region by early Monday. The end result
for our area will be a slowly progressing cold front which will begin
sliding south during this period...with increasing chances for rain
from Sunday night through the Tuesday time frame. Main issue seen
from this vantage point is that this feature will likely stall
somewhere across central Missouri as it begins to interact with stout
sfc ridging in place across the lwr Miss Vly and southern Plains. A
severe wx concern initially Sunday night may quickly morph into a
hydro concern as continued moisture advection resulting from a
strengthening low-level jet of 2-3 standard deviations above normal
ascends the stalled feature and cloud layer winds remain parallel to
the front. Will have to maintain vigilance with this feature as many
locations across our northwestern zones have received heavy rainfall
in recent days. If severe wx were to develop Sunday night...bulk
shear vectors orientation parallel to the incoming front will likely
support multicell type storm morphologies...with high winds winds
posing the biggest threat before concerns change over to possible
heavy rain. That said...better frontal convergence for forced ascent
will likely remain north of our fcst area which could ultimately
limit the severe threat for our region. In any event...both flooding
and possible severe pose a risk as seen this afternoon and will
maintain mention in the HWO product for now.

Beyond this...returning southerly flow will finally lift the front
north across the region with dry weather returning in its wake by
midweek. With zonal flow expected to dominate across the lower
48...temps through the conclusion of the period should remain near or
slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Thunderstorms continue to percolate around the Kansas City terminals
late tonight, but this activity is not expected to last much longer.
By the time the TAF is valid expectations are that the thunderstorms
activity will have moved to the east or dissipated. Therefore, only
issue in the TAF is the potential for MVFR to IFR fog as skies clear
in the wake of the storms. Winds this morning will be light and
variable which will likely result in at least some haze. Have kept IFR
conditions in for the KSTJ terminal. Otherwise, Light winds will
remain rather variable through the day Saturday, with speeds under `10
knots expected through the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KSGF 300425
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1125 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Scattered showers and thunderstorms occurred in a relatively
narrow corridor in the right entrance region of jet streak over
eastern KS/western MO. Haven`t seen anything severe, but some
gusty winds may occur with stronger storms during the high point
of diurnal heating through early evening.

It may be a relatively quiet evening, however, some
shower/thunderstorm redevelopment is expected late tonight as a
weak sfc trough moves into the nw cwfa by 12z Saturday. This
boundary is expected to lose it`s identity/wash out with time
Sat/Sat night but still may help serve as a focus for scattered
convection Saturday afternoon and evening with the axis of a weak
upper level trough passing overhead. Went close to a mos blended
guidance for temperatures, but cloud cover will make high
temperatures a somewhat tough forecast for Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

No big changes to the forecast. The upper level subtropical ridge
will be suppressed to the south early next week as the belt of
mid level westerlies takes a dip to the south. Sunday should be
relatively quiet with modest shortwave ridge moving through the
area. Some brief diurnally driven convection may occur over the
far southern and eastern cwfa, but most areas are expected to
remain dry.

Better chances for rain will occur Monday into Tuesday with a
more sharply defined front that is expected to move south into
the area. It looks like better vertical shear will be in place for
storm organization during this time, particularly late Monday into
Tuesday, but forecasting overall MCS potential timing/placement is
difficult at best this far out.

Medium range guidance is a bit of a mixed bag. The ECMWF
reestablished the subtropical ridge into Mid MS Vly region/Ozarks
by early Thursday. The GFS lags that timing just a bit, but has
the same basic idea. Some lingering of precip may occur Wednesday
along the old frontal boundary, but precip chances should then
begin to wane by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

We have a shortwave pushing from west to east across the area
tonight with any remaining convection to the east of the forecast
terminals. Frontal boundary is still to the west but not seeing
much in the way of development along the front at this point.
Wouldn`t be surprised to see some scattered convection redevelop,
however confidence on convection hitting any of the terminal
locations is fairly low so will hold off on putting in TAFS for
the 06z issuance at this time. Expecting VFR conditions through
the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 300425
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1125 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Scattered showers and thunderstorms occurred in a relatively
narrow corridor in the right entrance region of jet streak over
eastern KS/western MO. Haven`t seen anything severe, but some
gusty winds may occur with stronger storms during the high point
of diurnal heating through early evening.

It may be a relatively quiet evening, however, some
shower/thunderstorm redevelopment is expected late tonight as a
weak sfc trough moves into the nw cwfa by 12z Saturday. This
boundary is expected to lose it`s identity/wash out with time
Sat/Sat night but still may help serve as a focus for scattered
convection Saturday afternoon and evening with the axis of a weak
upper level trough passing overhead. Went close to a mos blended
guidance for temperatures, but cloud cover will make high
temperatures a somewhat tough forecast for Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

No big changes to the forecast. The upper level subtropical ridge
will be suppressed to the south early next week as the belt of
mid level westerlies takes a dip to the south. Sunday should be
relatively quiet with modest shortwave ridge moving through the
area. Some brief diurnally driven convection may occur over the
far southern and eastern cwfa, but most areas are expected to
remain dry.

Better chances for rain will occur Monday into Tuesday with a
more sharply defined front that is expected to move south into
the area. It looks like better vertical shear will be in place for
storm organization during this time, particularly late Monday into
Tuesday, but forecasting overall MCS potential timing/placement is
difficult at best this far out.

Medium range guidance is a bit of a mixed bag. The ECMWF
reestablished the subtropical ridge into Mid MS Vly region/Ozarks
by early Thursday. The GFS lags that timing just a bit, but has
the same basic idea. Some lingering of precip may occur Wednesday
along the old frontal boundary, but precip chances should then
begin to wane by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

We have a shortwave pushing from west to east across the area
tonight with any remaining convection to the east of the forecast
terminals. Frontal boundary is still to the west but not seeing
much in the way of development along the front at this point.
Wouldn`t be surprised to see some scattered convection redevelop,
however confidence on convection hitting any of the terminal
locations is fairly low so will hold off on putting in TAFS for
the 06z issuance at this time. Expecting VFR conditions through
the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KLSX 300400
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1100 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Main focus through tonight will be on precipitation chances. Compact
vort max/MCV will be main driver of precipitation through the period.
Tied highest PoPs with track of this feature which current radar
imagery supports as largest coverage of showers with embedded
thunderstorms is just ahead of this feature through early this evening.
Not sure how activity will evolve overnight...but do think that
activity may become more scattered with loss of bulk of daytime
instability and track of vort max to the north of CWA. Therefore...
did lower PoPs back for late tonight. Associated frontal boundary will
slowly ooze south and eastward overnight and begin to washout/stall out
somewhere over the central portion of the CWA bisecting from southwest to
northeast. Temperatures will be seasonably warm...i.e. upper 60s to low
70s and did not deviate from guidance too much.

Gosselin

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Continuing with the short term theme of more scattered convection
associated with this system...have lowered PoPs for Saturday morning
across the entire area.  12Z model guidance from this morning backed
off precipitation chances and QPF for Saturday morning.  The upper
level trof will be flattening out and much of the vorticity will be
moving off to the northeast of the area.  Low level convergence will
be fairly weak and with only weak low level warm advection ahead of
the trof it looks like coverage will be limited.  Expect though as
the day heats up and the atmosphere becomes more unstable we`ll see
coverage increase.  Have therefore kept likely PoPs for Saturday
afternoon...generally along and east of the I-44/I-55 corridor.
Should see storms diminish during the evening with the loss of
daytime heating.

Keeping with the slightly drier trend to the forecast, have lowered
PoPs a bit on Sunday as weak shortwave ridging moves over the CWFA
in the wake of Saturday`s trof.  With no obvious focus for surface
convection showing up in the guidance, think the only real shot for
convective initiation will be orographic effects from the Ozarks.
Therefore have kept chance/slight chance PoPs along and south of the
I-70 corridor Sunday assuming there will be scattered storms down
there which will migrate northeastward.

Little change to the forecast for next week...other than to bump up
temperatures a little for Thursday and Friday.  The next shortwave
is still on track to dig into the Great Plains on Sunday
evening...moving into the Midwest by Monday morning.  While medium
range guidance is in general agreement with the timing of the wave,
the GFS shows a sharper/deeper wave while the ECMWF is less
amplified.  The surface front is still forecast to dip into central
Missouri before stalling Monday night.  The front remains over
Missouri and southern Illinois on Tuesday providing a focus for
convective development.  Have kept likely PoP Sunday night into
Monday night as the front moves in and lingering chance PoPs
continuing into midweek.  As the front moves back to the north
Thursday and Friday have lowered to slight chance and increased
temps as the upper level ridge builds back across the central U.S.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

There were two areas of showers and storms this evening. The first
was across southeast MO and will likely remain southeast of the
taf sites late tonight, although they could get close to CPS.
There were scattered showers/storms across northwest MO ahead of
an approaching upper level disturbance which may impact the UIN
area late tonight. May include VCTS in the UIN taf. It appears
that there will be enough cloud cover and strong enough surface
winds to deter fog formation, although could not rule out light
fog late tonight/early Saturday morning in SUS and CPS where the
surface wind will be a little lighter and in areas which had
significant rainfall this evening. Should be at least scattered
showers/storms in the St Louis metro area Saturday afternoon along
and ahead of weakening cold front/surface trough dropping
southeastward through the area. Sly surface winds will become
more swly late tonight and Saturday morning.

Specifics for KSTL: Current shower/storm activity on radar will
likely miss STL late tonight, although could not rule out a
passing sprinkle. Will likely leave STL taf dry late tonight and
Saturday morning due to uncertainty in coverage and timing of
additional convection. Will include VCTS in the taf Saturday
afternoon with at least scattered showers/storms expected at this
time due to diurnal destabilization along and ahead of a weak
surface trough/cold front. Prevailing s-swly surface winds through
the period.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     73  87  73  87 /  50  60  30  20
Quincy          69  85  67  86 /  40  40  10  10
Columbia        68  88  68  89 /  40  40  20  10
Jefferson City  68  87  69  89 /  40  40  20  10
Salem           71  85  71  84 /  60  60  50  30
Farmington      71  85  69  85 /  50  60  50  30

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 292343
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
643 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 626 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

We continue to see a gradual weakening trend with scattered
convection across most of our forecast area with loss of peak heating and
weak to nil surface convergence. Stronger cluster of storms over
northeast Arkansas will be clipping Oregon County and maybe
southeast Shannon County over the next few hours. So I think the
precipitation probability trend of higher east/lower west still
works for this evening.

Looking upstream...seeing a bit of an uptick in convection over
eastern Kansas/northeast Oklahoma possibly aided by shortwave
disturbance moving northward from the Red River Valley. Also...
a fairly decent shortwave over north central Colorado is making
steady east-southeast progress and could kick off some storms over
our western counties by around 10z (5 AM) in the vicinity of the
weak front which should end up over our nw counties Sat. Morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Scattered showers and thunderstorms occurred in a relatively
narrow corridor in the right entrance region of jet streak over
eastern KS/western MO. Haven`t seen anything severe, but some
gusty winds may occur with stronger storms during the high point
of diurnal heating through early evening.

It may be a relatively quiet evening, however, some
shower/thunderstorm redevelopment is expected late tonight as a
weak sfc trough moves into the nw cwfa by 12z Saturday. This
boundary is expected to lose it`s identity/wash out with time
Sat/Sat night but still may help serve as a focus for scattered
convection Saturday afternoon and evening with the axis of a weak
upper level trough passing overhead. Went close to a mos blended
guidance for temperatures, but cloud cover will make high
temperatures a somewhat tough forecast for Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

No big changes to the forecast. The upper level subtropical ridge
will be suppressed to the south early next week as the belt of
mid level westerlies takes a dip to the south. Sunday should be
relatively quiet with modest shortwave ridge moving through the
area. Some brief diurnally driven convection may occur over the
far southern and eastern cwfa, but most areas are expected to
remain dry.

Better chances for rain will occur Monday into Tuesday with a
more sharply defined front that is expected to move south into
the area. It looks like better vertical shear will be in place for
storm organization during this time, particularly late Monday into
Tuesday, but forecasting overall MCS potential timing/placement is
difficult at best this far out.

Medium range guidance is a bit of a mixed bag. The ECMWF
reestablished the subtropical ridge into Mid MS Vly region/Ozarks
by early Thursday. The GFS lags that timing just a bit, but has
the same basic idea. Some lingering of precip may occur Wednesday
along the old frontal boundary, but precip chances should then
begin to wane by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Following current radar trends...will keep vicinity showers around
Joplin and Branson for the first couple of hours. Otherwise expect
a bit of a break in precip near the airports until early Saturday
morning. An upper level disturbance over north central Colorado
this evening will drop southeast across northern Kansas and likely
spark a few showers and storms near the front across eastern KS.

For the time being...will continue VFR through the forecast period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Terry
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Terry








000
FXUS63 KSGF 292343
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
643 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 626 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

We continue to see a gradual weakening trend with scattered
convection across most of our forecast area with loss of peak heating and
weak to nil surface convergence. Stronger cluster of storms over
northeast Arkansas will be clipping Oregon County and maybe
southeast Shannon County over the next few hours. So I think the
precipitation probability trend of higher east/lower west still
works for this evening.

Looking upstream...seeing a bit of an uptick in convection over
eastern Kansas/northeast Oklahoma possibly aided by shortwave
disturbance moving northward from the Red River Valley. Also...
a fairly decent shortwave over north central Colorado is making
steady east-southeast progress and could kick off some storms over
our western counties by around 10z (5 AM) in the vicinity of the
weak front which should end up over our nw counties Sat. Morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Scattered showers and thunderstorms occurred in a relatively
narrow corridor in the right entrance region of jet streak over
eastern KS/western MO. Haven`t seen anything severe, but some
gusty winds may occur with stronger storms during the high point
of diurnal heating through early evening.

It may be a relatively quiet evening, however, some
shower/thunderstorm redevelopment is expected late tonight as a
weak sfc trough moves into the nw cwfa by 12z Saturday. This
boundary is expected to lose it`s identity/wash out with time
Sat/Sat night but still may help serve as a focus for scattered
convection Saturday afternoon and evening with the axis of a weak
upper level trough passing overhead. Went close to a mos blended
guidance for temperatures, but cloud cover will make high
temperatures a somewhat tough forecast for Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

No big changes to the forecast. The upper level subtropical ridge
will be suppressed to the south early next week as the belt of
mid level westerlies takes a dip to the south. Sunday should be
relatively quiet with modest shortwave ridge moving through the
area. Some brief diurnally driven convection may occur over the
far southern and eastern cwfa, but most areas are expected to
remain dry.

Better chances for rain will occur Monday into Tuesday with a
more sharply defined front that is expected to move south into
the area. It looks like better vertical shear will be in place for
storm organization during this time, particularly late Monday into
Tuesday, but forecasting overall MCS potential timing/placement is
difficult at best this far out.

Medium range guidance is a bit of a mixed bag. The ECMWF
reestablished the subtropical ridge into Mid MS Vly region/Ozarks
by early Thursday. The GFS lags that timing just a bit, but has
the same basic idea. Some lingering of precip may occur Wednesday
along the old frontal boundary, but precip chances should then
begin to wane by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Following current radar trends...will keep vicinity showers around
Joplin and Branson for the first couple of hours. Otherwise expect
a bit of a break in precip near the airports until early Saturday
morning. An upper level disturbance over north central Colorado
this evening will drop southeast across northern Kansas and likely
spark a few showers and storms near the front across eastern KS.

For the time being...will continue VFR through the forecast period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Terry
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Terry







000
FXUS63 KEAX 292341
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
641 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Out of the gate this afternoon...first round of convection continuing
to track east-northeast as initial shot of vorticity and pressure
advection associated with inbound upper wave slides east across the
region. Upstream behind this afternoon/s activity...skies have
cleared and weak destabilization has occurred with latest SPC
mesoanalysis suggesting anywhere between 1000-1500 J/Kg of MLCAPE
exists across eastern KS and western MO. Heading into the late
afternoon...main concern is for redeveloping convection as next piece
of shortwave energy and associated vorticity slides over the area. As
this occurs...long-lived frontal boundary which has been in place
across the central Plains in recent days should slowly slide across
the region which should also help with possible redevelopment. Fcst
models have been playing this card quite well with latest HRRR high-
res data supporting renewed convection across eastern KS this afternoon.
For now...have advertised chc pops pretty much across the western
2/3rds of the fcst area...before gradually spreading them east during
the early overnight period. In terms of severe threats...latest
mesoanalysis shows fairly weak shear aloft. This along with a DCAPE
min/trough across our region should largely prevent widespread
severe. That said though...a few strong downbursts cannot be ruled
out if convection actually does develop.

Main front to slide through the forecast area tonight as discussed
above. This should result in a gradual decrease in storm coverage
from west to east during the early morning hrs if storms do in fact
develop. Overnight lows tonight will largely reside in the middle to
upper 60s.

By all accounts...upcoming holiday weekend shaping up to be
beautiful...at least early on that is as region will reside in a post
frontal airmass both Saturday and Sunday. Despite the fropa
tonight...limited to no cooling seeing in the 850-mb temp field thus
expect high temps in the mid to upper 80s on Saturday...and
potentially into the lower to middle 90s on Sunday as warm air
advection increases ahead of next incoming wave/front.

Much more interesting weather by Sunday night/early Monday as well
advertised longwave trough continues to dig along the Front Range. As
this occurs...cyclogenesis expected across the northern Plains with
strengthening future then expected to quickly exit into the upper
Miss Vly/western Great Lakes region by early Monday. The end result
for our area will be a slowly progressing cold front which will begin
sliding south during this period...with increasing chances for rain
from Sunday night through the Tuesday time frame. Main issue seen
from this vantage point is that this feature will likely stall
somewhere across central Missouri as it begins to interact with stout
sfc ridging in place across the lwr Miss Vly and southern Plains. A
severe wx concern initially Sunday night may quickly morph into a
hydro concern as continued moisture advection resulting from a
strengthening low-level jet of 2-3 standard deviations above normal
ascends the stalled feature and cloud layer winds remain parallel to
the front. Will have to maintain vigilance with this feature as many
locations across our northwestern zones have received heavy rainfall
in recent days. If severe wx were to develop Sunday night...bulk
shear vectors orientation parallel to the incoming front will likely
support multicell type storm morphologies...with high winds winds
posing the biggest threat before concerns change over to possible
heavy rain. That said...better frontal convergence for forced ascent
will likely remain north of our fcst area which could ultimately
limit the severe threat for our region. In any event...both flooding
and possible severe pose a risk as seen this afternoon and will
maintain mention in the HWO product for now.

Beyond this...returning southerly flow will finally lift the front
north across the region with dry weather returning in its wake by
midweek. With zonal flow expected to dominate across the lower
48...temps through the conclusion of the period should remain near or
slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Scattered thunderstorms continue to bubble up in the heat of the late
afternoon and will likely affect the terminals through the mid to
late evening hours of tonight. Ceilings in the vicinity of the storms
are not particularly low but and torrential rain with these storms
might greatly reduce visibilities for brief periods. Expect the focus
for these storms to either dissipate or shift east of the terminals
late tonight which could clear skies out enough for some early
morning haze or fog. Lastly, expect winds to veer around to the
west by Saturday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KEAX 292341
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
641 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Out of the gate this afternoon...first round of convection continuing
to track east-northeast as initial shot of vorticity and pressure
advection associated with inbound upper wave slides east across the
region. Upstream behind this afternoon/s activity...skies have
cleared and weak destabilization has occurred with latest SPC
mesoanalysis suggesting anywhere between 1000-1500 J/Kg of MLCAPE
exists across eastern KS and western MO. Heading into the late
afternoon...main concern is for redeveloping convection as next piece
of shortwave energy and associated vorticity slides over the area. As
this occurs...long-lived frontal boundary which has been in place
across the central Plains in recent days should slowly slide across
the region which should also help with possible redevelopment. Fcst
models have been playing this card quite well with latest HRRR high-
res data supporting renewed convection across eastern KS this afternoon.
For now...have advertised chc pops pretty much across the western
2/3rds of the fcst area...before gradually spreading them east during
the early overnight period. In terms of severe threats...latest
mesoanalysis shows fairly weak shear aloft. This along with a DCAPE
min/trough across our region should largely prevent widespread
severe. That said though...a few strong downbursts cannot be ruled
out if convection actually does develop.

Main front to slide through the forecast area tonight as discussed
above. This should result in a gradual decrease in storm coverage
from west to east during the early morning hrs if storms do in fact
develop. Overnight lows tonight will largely reside in the middle to
upper 60s.

By all accounts...upcoming holiday weekend shaping up to be
beautiful...at least early on that is as region will reside in a post
frontal airmass both Saturday and Sunday. Despite the fropa
tonight...limited to no cooling seeing in the 850-mb temp field thus
expect high temps in the mid to upper 80s on Saturday...and
potentially into the lower to middle 90s on Sunday as warm air
advection increases ahead of next incoming wave/front.

Much more interesting weather by Sunday night/early Monday as well
advertised longwave trough continues to dig along the Front Range. As
this occurs...cyclogenesis expected across the northern Plains with
strengthening future then expected to quickly exit into the upper
Miss Vly/western Great Lakes region by early Monday. The end result
for our area will be a slowly progressing cold front which will begin
sliding south during this period...with increasing chances for rain
from Sunday night through the Tuesday time frame. Main issue seen
from this vantage point is that this feature will likely stall
somewhere across central Missouri as it begins to interact with stout
sfc ridging in place across the lwr Miss Vly and southern Plains. A
severe wx concern initially Sunday night may quickly morph into a
hydro concern as continued moisture advection resulting from a
strengthening low-level jet of 2-3 standard deviations above normal
ascends the stalled feature and cloud layer winds remain parallel to
the front. Will have to maintain vigilance with this feature as many
locations across our northwestern zones have received heavy rainfall
in recent days. If severe wx were to develop Sunday night...bulk
shear vectors orientation parallel to the incoming front will likely
support multicell type storm morphologies...with high winds winds
posing the biggest threat before concerns change over to possible
heavy rain. That said...better frontal convergence for forced ascent
will likely remain north of our fcst area which could ultimately
limit the severe threat for our region. In any event...both flooding
and possible severe pose a risk as seen this afternoon and will
maintain mention in the HWO product for now.

Beyond this...returning southerly flow will finally lift the front
north across the region with dry weather returning in its wake by
midweek. With zonal flow expected to dominate across the lower
48...temps through the conclusion of the period should remain near or
slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Scattered thunderstorms continue to bubble up in the heat of the late
afternoon and will likely affect the terminals through the mid to
late evening hours of tonight. Ceilings in the vicinity of the storms
are not particularly low but and torrential rain with these storms
might greatly reduce visibilities for brief periods. Expect the focus
for these storms to either dissipate or shift east of the terminals
late tonight which could clear skies out enough for some early
morning haze or fog. Lastly, expect winds to veer around to the
west by Saturday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KEAX 292341
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
641 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Out of the gate this afternoon...first round of convection continuing
to track east-northeast as initial shot of vorticity and pressure
advection associated with inbound upper wave slides east across the
region. Upstream behind this afternoon/s activity...skies have
cleared and weak destabilization has occurred with latest SPC
mesoanalysis suggesting anywhere between 1000-1500 J/Kg of MLCAPE
exists across eastern KS and western MO. Heading into the late
afternoon...main concern is for redeveloping convection as next piece
of shortwave energy and associated vorticity slides over the area. As
this occurs...long-lived frontal boundary which has been in place
across the central Plains in recent days should slowly slide across
the region which should also help with possible redevelopment. Fcst
models have been playing this card quite well with latest HRRR high-
res data supporting renewed convection across eastern KS this afternoon.
For now...have advertised chc pops pretty much across the western
2/3rds of the fcst area...before gradually spreading them east during
the early overnight period. In terms of severe threats...latest
mesoanalysis shows fairly weak shear aloft. This along with a DCAPE
min/trough across our region should largely prevent widespread
severe. That said though...a few strong downbursts cannot be ruled
out if convection actually does develop.

Main front to slide through the forecast area tonight as discussed
above. This should result in a gradual decrease in storm coverage
from west to east during the early morning hrs if storms do in fact
develop. Overnight lows tonight will largely reside in the middle to
upper 60s.

By all accounts...upcoming holiday weekend shaping up to be
beautiful...at least early on that is as region will reside in a post
frontal airmass both Saturday and Sunday. Despite the fropa
tonight...limited to no cooling seeing in the 850-mb temp field thus
expect high temps in the mid to upper 80s on Saturday...and
potentially into the lower to middle 90s on Sunday as warm air
advection increases ahead of next incoming wave/front.

Much more interesting weather by Sunday night/early Monday as well
advertised longwave trough continues to dig along the Front Range. As
this occurs...cyclogenesis expected across the northern Plains with
strengthening future then expected to quickly exit into the upper
Miss Vly/western Great Lakes region by early Monday. The end result
for our area will be a slowly progressing cold front which will begin
sliding south during this period...with increasing chances for rain
from Sunday night through the Tuesday time frame. Main issue seen
from this vantage point is that this feature will likely stall
somewhere across central Missouri as it begins to interact with stout
sfc ridging in place across the lwr Miss Vly and southern Plains. A
severe wx concern initially Sunday night may quickly morph into a
hydro concern as continued moisture advection resulting from a
strengthening low-level jet of 2-3 standard deviations above normal
ascends the stalled feature and cloud layer winds remain parallel to
the front. Will have to maintain vigilance with this feature as many
locations across our northwestern zones have received heavy rainfall
in recent days. If severe wx were to develop Sunday night...bulk
shear vectors orientation parallel to the incoming front will likely
support multicell type storm morphologies...with high winds winds
posing the biggest threat before concerns change over to possible
heavy rain. That said...better frontal convergence for forced ascent
will likely remain north of our fcst area which could ultimately
limit the severe threat for our region. In any event...both flooding
and possible severe pose a risk as seen this afternoon and will
maintain mention in the HWO product for now.

Beyond this...returning southerly flow will finally lift the front
north across the region with dry weather returning in its wake by
midweek. With zonal flow expected to dominate across the lower
48...temps through the conclusion of the period should remain near or
slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Scattered thunderstorms continue to bubble up in the heat of the late
afternoon and will likely affect the terminals through the mid to
late evening hours of tonight. Ceilings in the vicinity of the storms
are not particularly low but and torrential rain with these storms
might greatly reduce visibilities for brief periods. Expect the focus
for these storms to either dissipate or shift east of the terminals
late tonight which could clear skies out enough for some early
morning haze or fog. Lastly, expect winds to veer around to the
west by Saturday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KEAX 292341
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
641 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Out of the gate this afternoon...first round of convection continuing
to track east-northeast as initial shot of vorticity and pressure
advection associated with inbound upper wave slides east across the
region. Upstream behind this afternoon/s activity...skies have
cleared and weak destabilization has occurred with latest SPC
mesoanalysis suggesting anywhere between 1000-1500 J/Kg of MLCAPE
exists across eastern KS and western MO. Heading into the late
afternoon...main concern is for redeveloping convection as next piece
of shortwave energy and associated vorticity slides over the area. As
this occurs...long-lived frontal boundary which has been in place
across the central Plains in recent days should slowly slide across
the region which should also help with possible redevelopment. Fcst
models have been playing this card quite well with latest HRRR high-
res data supporting renewed convection across eastern KS this afternoon.
For now...have advertised chc pops pretty much across the western
2/3rds of the fcst area...before gradually spreading them east during
the early overnight period. In terms of severe threats...latest
mesoanalysis shows fairly weak shear aloft. This along with a DCAPE
min/trough across our region should largely prevent widespread
severe. That said though...a few strong downbursts cannot be ruled
out if convection actually does develop.

Main front to slide through the forecast area tonight as discussed
above. This should result in a gradual decrease in storm coverage
from west to east during the early morning hrs if storms do in fact
develop. Overnight lows tonight will largely reside in the middle to
upper 60s.

By all accounts...upcoming holiday weekend shaping up to be
beautiful...at least early on that is as region will reside in a post
frontal airmass both Saturday and Sunday. Despite the fropa
tonight...limited to no cooling seeing in the 850-mb temp field thus
expect high temps in the mid to upper 80s on Saturday...and
potentially into the lower to middle 90s on Sunday as warm air
advection increases ahead of next incoming wave/front.

Much more interesting weather by Sunday night/early Monday as well
advertised longwave trough continues to dig along the Front Range. As
this occurs...cyclogenesis expected across the northern Plains with
strengthening future then expected to quickly exit into the upper
Miss Vly/western Great Lakes region by early Monday. The end result
for our area will be a slowly progressing cold front which will begin
sliding south during this period...with increasing chances for rain
from Sunday night through the Tuesday time frame. Main issue seen
from this vantage point is that this feature will likely stall
somewhere across central Missouri as it begins to interact with stout
sfc ridging in place across the lwr Miss Vly and southern Plains. A
severe wx concern initially Sunday night may quickly morph into a
hydro concern as continued moisture advection resulting from a
strengthening low-level jet of 2-3 standard deviations above normal
ascends the stalled feature and cloud layer winds remain parallel to
the front. Will have to maintain vigilance with this feature as many
locations across our northwestern zones have received heavy rainfall
in recent days. If severe wx were to develop Sunday night...bulk
shear vectors orientation parallel to the incoming front will likely
support multicell type storm morphologies...with high winds winds
posing the biggest threat before concerns change over to possible
heavy rain. That said...better frontal convergence for forced ascent
will likely remain north of our fcst area which could ultimately
limit the severe threat for our region. In any event...both flooding
and possible severe pose a risk as seen this afternoon and will
maintain mention in the HWO product for now.

Beyond this...returning southerly flow will finally lift the front
north across the region with dry weather returning in its wake by
midweek. With zonal flow expected to dominate across the lower
48...temps through the conclusion of the period should remain near or
slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Scattered thunderstorms continue to bubble up in the heat of the late
afternoon and will likely affect the terminals through the mid to
late evening hours of tonight. Ceilings in the vicinity of the storms
are not particularly low but and torrential rain with these storms
might greatly reduce visibilities for brief periods. Expect the focus
for these storms to either dissipate or shift east of the terminals
late tonight which could clear skies out enough for some early
morning haze or fog. Lastly, expect winds to veer around to the
west by Saturday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KLSX 292300
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
600 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Main focus through tonight will be on precipitation chances. Compact
vort max/MCV will be main driver of precipitation through the period.
Tied highest PoPs with track of this feature which current radar
imagery supports as largest coverage of showers with embedded
thunderstorms is just ahead of this feature through early this evening.
Not sure how activity will evolve overnight...but do think that
activity may become more scattered with loss of bulk of daytime
instability and track of vort max to the north of CWA. Therefore...
did lower PoPs back for late tonight. Associated frontal boundary will
slowly ooze south and eastward overnight and begin to washout/stall out
somewhere over the central portion of the CWA bisecting from southwest to
northeast. Temperatures will be seasonably warm...i.e. upper 60s to low
70s and did not deviate from guidance too much.

Gosselin

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Continuing with the short term theme of more scattered convection
associated with this system...have lowered PoPs for Saturday morning
across the entire area.  12Z model guidance from this morning backed
off precipitation chances and QPF for Saturday morning.  The upper
level trof will be flattening out and much of the vorticity will be
moving off to the northeast of the area.  Low level convergence will
be fairly weak and with only weak low level warm advection ahead of
the trof it looks like coverage will be limited.  Expect though as
the day heats up and the atmosphere becomes more unstable we`ll see
coverage increase.  Have therefore kept likely PoPs for Saturday
afternoon...generally along and east of the I-44/I-55 corridor.
Should see storms diminish during the evening with the loss of
daytime heating.

Keeping with the slightly drier trend to the forecast, have lowered
PoPs a bit on Sunday as weak shortwave ridging moves over the CWFA
in the wake of Saturday`s trof.  With no obvious focus for surface
convection showing up in the guidance, think the only real shot for
convective initiation will be orographic effects from the Ozarks.
Therefore have kept chance/slight chance PoPs along and south of the
I-70 corridor Sunday assuming there will be scattered storms down
there which will migrate northeastward.

Little change to the forecast for next week...other than to bump up
temperatures a little for Thursday and Friday.  The next shortwave
is still on track to dig into the Great Plains on Sunday
evening...moving into the Midwest by Monday morning.  While medium
range guidance is in general agreement with the timing of the wave,
the GFS shows a sharper/deeper wave while the ECMWF is less
amplified.  The surface front is still forecast to dip into central
Missouri before stalling Monday night.  The front remains over
Missouri and southern Illinois on Tuesday providing a focus for
convective development.  Have kept likely PoP Sunday night into
Monday night as the front moves in and lingering chance PoPs
continuing into midweek.  As the front moves back to the north
Thursday and Friday have lowered to slight chance and increased
temps as the upper level ridge builds back across the central U.S.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 526 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

North to south band of showers/storms moving through UIN will
also move through STL and SUS early this evening, although much of
this activity may shift east of the taf sites shortly after 00z
this evening. There will likely be widely scattered showers/storms
for at least the remainder of the evening and overnight due to
approaching upper level disturbance, but may leave the tafs dry.
It appears that there will be enough cloud cover and strong
enough surface winds to deter fog formation, although could not
rule out light fog late tonight/early Saturday morning in SUS and
CPS where the surface wind will be a little lighter and in areas
which get significant rainfall this evening. Should be at least
scattered showers/storms in the St Louis metro area Saturday
afternoon along and ahead of weakening cold front/surface trough.

Specifics for KSTL: Band of showers and storms will move through
STL around 00z this evening, with widely scattered showers/storms
still possible for the late evening and overnight. Will include
showers/storms in the STL taf until at least 01z this evening, but
may leave taf dry for the rest of the night into Saturday morning
due to uncertainty in coverage and timing of additional
convection. Will include VCTS in the taf Saturday afternoon with
at least scattered showers/storms expected at this time due to
diurnal destabilization along and ahead of a weak surface
trough/cold front. Prevailing s-swly surface winds through the
period.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     73  87  73  87 /  60  60  30  20
Quincy          69  85  67  86 /  60  40  10  10
Columbia        68  88  68  89 /  40  40  20  10
Jefferson City  68  87  69  89 /  40  40  20  10
Salem           71  85  71  84 /  50  60  50  30
Farmington      71  85  69  85 /  50  60  50  30

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 292300
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
600 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Main focus through tonight will be on precipitation chances. Compact
vort max/MCV will be main driver of precipitation through the period.
Tied highest PoPs with track of this feature which current radar
imagery supports as largest coverage of showers with embedded
thunderstorms is just ahead of this feature through early this evening.
Not sure how activity will evolve overnight...but do think that
activity may become more scattered with loss of bulk of daytime
instability and track of vort max to the north of CWA. Therefore...
did lower PoPs back for late tonight. Associated frontal boundary will
slowly ooze south and eastward overnight and begin to washout/stall out
somewhere over the central portion of the CWA bisecting from southwest to
northeast. Temperatures will be seasonably warm...i.e. upper 60s to low
70s and did not deviate from guidance too much.

Gosselin

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Continuing with the short term theme of more scattered convection
associated with this system...have lowered PoPs for Saturday morning
across the entire area.  12Z model guidance from this morning backed
off precipitation chances and QPF for Saturday morning.  The upper
level trof will be flattening out and much of the vorticity will be
moving off to the northeast of the area.  Low level convergence will
be fairly weak and with only weak low level warm advection ahead of
the trof it looks like coverage will be limited.  Expect though as
the day heats up and the atmosphere becomes more unstable we`ll see
coverage increase.  Have therefore kept likely PoPs for Saturday
afternoon...generally along and east of the I-44/I-55 corridor.
Should see storms diminish during the evening with the loss of
daytime heating.

Keeping with the slightly drier trend to the forecast, have lowered
PoPs a bit on Sunday as weak shortwave ridging moves over the CWFA
in the wake of Saturday`s trof.  With no obvious focus for surface
convection showing up in the guidance, think the only real shot for
convective initiation will be orographic effects from the Ozarks.
Therefore have kept chance/slight chance PoPs along and south of the
I-70 corridor Sunday assuming there will be scattered storms down
there which will migrate northeastward.

Little change to the forecast for next week...other than to bump up
temperatures a little for Thursday and Friday.  The next shortwave
is still on track to dig into the Great Plains on Sunday
evening...moving into the Midwest by Monday morning.  While medium
range guidance is in general agreement with the timing of the wave,
the GFS shows a sharper/deeper wave while the ECMWF is less
amplified.  The surface front is still forecast to dip into central
Missouri before stalling Monday night.  The front remains over
Missouri and southern Illinois on Tuesday providing a focus for
convective development.  Have kept likely PoP Sunday night into
Monday night as the front moves in and lingering chance PoPs
continuing into midweek.  As the front moves back to the north
Thursday and Friday have lowered to slight chance and increased
temps as the upper level ridge builds back across the central U.S.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 526 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

North to south band of showers/storms moving through UIN will
also move through STL and SUS early this evening, although much of
this activity may shift east of the taf sites shortly after 00z
this evening. There will likely be widely scattered showers/storms
for at least the remainder of the evening and overnight due to
approaching upper level disturbance, but may leave the tafs dry.
It appears that there will be enough cloud cover and strong
enough surface winds to deter fog formation, although could not
rule out light fog late tonight/early Saturday morning in SUS and
CPS where the surface wind will be a little lighter and in areas
which get significant rainfall this evening. Should be at least
scattered showers/storms in the St Louis metro area Saturday
afternoon along and ahead of weakening cold front/surface trough.

Specifics for KSTL: Band of showers and storms will move through
STL around 00z this evening, with widely scattered showers/storms
still possible for the late evening and overnight. Will include
showers/storms in the STL taf until at least 01z this evening, but
may leave taf dry for the rest of the night into Saturday morning
due to uncertainty in coverage and timing of additional
convection. Will include VCTS in the taf Saturday afternoon with
at least scattered showers/storms expected at this time due to
diurnal destabilization along and ahead of a weak surface
trough/cold front. Prevailing s-swly surface winds through the
period.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     73  87  73  87 /  60  60  30  20
Quincy          69  85  67  86 /  60  40  10  10
Columbia        68  88  68  89 /  40  40  20  10
Jefferson City  68  87  69  89 /  40  40  20  10
Salem           71  85  71  84 /  50  60  50  30
Farmington      71  85  69  85 /  50  60  50  30

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 292101
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
401 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Out of the gate this afternoon...first round of convection continuing
to track east-northeast as initial shot of vorticity and pressure
advection associated with inbound upper wave slides east across the
region. Upstream behind this afternoon/s activity...skies have
cleared and weak destabilization has occurred with latest SPC
mesoanalysis suggesting anywhere between 1000-1500 J/Kg of MLCAPE
exists across eastern KS and western MO. Heading into the late
afternoon...main concern is for redeveloping convection as next piece
of shortwave energy and associated vorticity slides over the area. As
this occurs...long-lived frontal boundary which has been in place
across the central Plains in recent days should slowly slide across
the region which should also help with possible redevelopment. Fcst
models have been playing this card quite well with latest HRRR high-
res data supporting renewed convection across eastern KS this afternoon.
For now...have advertised chc pops pretty much across the western
2/3rds of the fcst area...before gradually spreading them east during
the early overnight period. In terms of severe threats...latest
mesoanalysis shows fairly weak shear aloft. This along with a DCAPE
min/trough across our region should largely prevent widespread
severe. That said though...a few strong downbursts cannot be ruled
out if convection actually does develop.

Main front to slide through the forecast area tonight as discussed
above. This should result in a gradual decrease in storm coverage
from west to east during the early morning hrs if storms do in fact
develop. Overnight lows tonight will largely reside in the middle to
upper 60s.

By all accounts...upcoming holiday weekend shaping up to be
beautiful...at least early on that is as region will reside in a post
frontal airmass both Saturday and Sunday. Despite the fropa
tonight...limited to no cooling seeing in the 850-mb temp field thus
expect high temps in the mid to upper 80s on Saturday...and
potentially into the lower to middle 90s on Sunday as warm air
advection increases ahead of next incoming wave/front.

Much more interesting weather by Sunday night/early Monday as well
advertised longwave trough continues to dig along the Front Range. As
this occurs...cyclogenesis expected across the northern Plains with
strengthening future then expected to quickly exit into the upper
Miss Vly/western Great Lakes region by early Monday. The end result
for our area will be a slowly progressing cold front which will begin
sliding south during this period...with increasing chances for rain
from Sunday night through the Tuesday time frame. Main issue seen
from this vantage point is that this feature will likely stall
somewhere across central Missouri as it begins to interact with stout
sfc ridging in place across the lwr Miss Vly and southern Plains. A
severe wx concern initially Sunday night may quickly morph into a
hydro concern as continued moisture advection resulting from a
strengthening low-level jet of 2-3 standard deviations above normal
ascends the stalled feature and cloud layer winds remain parallel to
the front. Will have to maintain vigilance with this feature as many
locations across our northwestern zones have received heavy rainfall
in recent days. If severe wx were to develop Sunday night...bulk
shear vectors orientation parallel to the incoming front will likely
support multicell type storm morphologies...with high winds winds
posing the biggest threat before concerns change over to possible
heavy rain. That said...better frontal convergence for forced ascent
will likely remain north of our fcst area which could ultimately
limit the severe threat for our region. In any event...both flooding
and possible severe pose a risk as seen this afternoon and will
maintain mention in the HWO product for now.

Beyond this...returning southerly flow will finally lift the front
north across the region with dry weather returning in its wake by
midweek. With zonal flow expected to dominate across the lower
48...temps through the conclusion of the period should remain near or
slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Complicated fcst this afternoon as large scale upper trough and
associated cold front will move through the area this
afternoon/evening. That said...latest radar trends showing a decent
swath of rain inbound to MCI with upstream obs over eastern KS
supporting a tempo IFR mention out of the gate. As this activity
clears to the north by 20z or so...attention then shifts to areas
upstream which are now destabilizing thanks to mostly clear skies. As
result...expect renewed shwr/storm activity later this afternoon with
a second tempo group added at all sites to account for this
possibility. Skies to slowly clear from west to east overnight which
should give rise to developing VSBY and low CIG restrictions. For
now...IFR restrictions offered at STJ with MVFR elsewhere.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...32
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KEAX 292101
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
401 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Out of the gate this afternoon...first round of convection continuing
to track east-northeast as initial shot of vorticity and pressure
advection associated with inbound upper wave slides east across the
region. Upstream behind this afternoon/s activity...skies have
cleared and weak destabilization has occurred with latest SPC
mesoanalysis suggesting anywhere between 1000-1500 J/Kg of MLCAPE
exists across eastern KS and western MO. Heading into the late
afternoon...main concern is for redeveloping convection as next piece
of shortwave energy and associated vorticity slides over the area. As
this occurs...long-lived frontal boundary which has been in place
across the central Plains in recent days should slowly slide across
the region which should also help with possible redevelopment. Fcst
models have been playing this card quite well with latest HRRR high-
res data supporting renewed convection across eastern KS this afternoon.
For now...have advertised chc pops pretty much across the western
2/3rds of the fcst area...before gradually spreading them east during
the early overnight period. In terms of severe threats...latest
mesoanalysis shows fairly weak shear aloft. This along with a DCAPE
min/trough across our region should largely prevent widespread
severe. That said though...a few strong downbursts cannot be ruled
out if convection actually does develop.

Main front to slide through the forecast area tonight as discussed
above. This should result in a gradual decrease in storm coverage
from west to east during the early morning hrs if storms do in fact
develop. Overnight lows tonight will largely reside in the middle to
upper 60s.

By all accounts...upcoming holiday weekend shaping up to be
beautiful...at least early on that is as region will reside in a post
frontal airmass both Saturday and Sunday. Despite the fropa
tonight...limited to no cooling seeing in the 850-mb temp field thus
expect high temps in the mid to upper 80s on Saturday...and
potentially into the lower to middle 90s on Sunday as warm air
advection increases ahead of next incoming wave/front.

Much more interesting weather by Sunday night/early Monday as well
advertised longwave trough continues to dig along the Front Range. As
this occurs...cyclogenesis expected across the northern Plains with
strengthening future then expected to quickly exit into the upper
Miss Vly/western Great Lakes region by early Monday. The end result
for our area will be a slowly progressing cold front which will begin
sliding south during this period...with increasing chances for rain
from Sunday night through the Tuesday time frame. Main issue seen
from this vantage point is that this feature will likely stall
somewhere across central Missouri as it begins to interact with stout
sfc ridging in place across the lwr Miss Vly and southern Plains. A
severe wx concern initially Sunday night may quickly morph into a
hydro concern as continued moisture advection resulting from a
strengthening low-level jet of 2-3 standard deviations above normal
ascends the stalled feature and cloud layer winds remain parallel to
the front. Will have to maintain vigilance with this feature as many
locations across our northwestern zones have received heavy rainfall
in recent days. If severe wx were to develop Sunday night...bulk
shear vectors orientation parallel to the incoming front will likely
support multicell type storm morphologies...with high winds winds
posing the biggest threat before concerns change over to possible
heavy rain. That said...better frontal convergence for forced ascent
will likely remain north of our fcst area which could ultimately
limit the severe threat for our region. In any event...both flooding
and possible severe pose a risk as seen this afternoon and will
maintain mention in the HWO product for now.

Beyond this...returning southerly flow will finally lift the front
north across the region with dry weather returning in its wake by
midweek. With zonal flow expected to dominate across the lower
48...temps through the conclusion of the period should remain near or
slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Complicated fcst this afternoon as large scale upper trough and
associated cold front will move through the area this
afternoon/evening. That said...latest radar trends showing a decent
swath of rain inbound to MCI with upstream obs over eastern KS
supporting a tempo IFR mention out of the gate. As this activity
clears to the north by 20z or so...attention then shifts to areas
upstream which are now destabilizing thanks to mostly clear skies. As
result...expect renewed shwr/storm activity later this afternoon with
a second tempo group added at all sites to account for this
possibility. Skies to slowly clear from west to east overnight which
should give rise to developing VSBY and low CIG restrictions. For
now...IFR restrictions offered at STJ with MVFR elsewhere.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...32
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32






000
FXUS63 KLSX 292055
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
355 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Main focus through tonight will be on precipitation chances. Compact
vort max/MCV will be main driver of precipitation through the period.
Tied highest PoPs with track of this feature which current radar
imagery supports as largest coverage of showers with embedded
thunderstorms is just ahead of this feature through early this evening.
Not sure how activity will evolve overnight...but do think that
activity may become more scattered with loss of bulk of daytime
instability and track of vort max to the north of CWA. Therefore...
did lower PoPs back for late tonight. Associated frontal boundary will
slowly ooze south and eastward overnigh and begin to washout/stall out
somewhere over the central portion of the CWA bisecting from southwest to
northeast. Temperatures will be seasonably warm...i.e. upper 60s to low
70s and did not deviate from guidance too much.

Gosselin

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Continuing with the short term theme of more scattered convection
associated with this system...have lowered PoPs for Saturday morning
across the entire area.  12Z model guidance from this morning backed
off precipitation chances and QPF for Saturday morning.  The upper
level trof will be flattening out and much of the vorticity will be
moving off to the northeast of the area.  Low level convergence will
be fairly weak and with only weak low level warm advection ahead of
the trof it looks like coverage will be limited.  Expect though as
the day heats up and the atmosphere becomes more unstable we`ll see
coverage increase.  Have therefore kept likely PoPs for Saturday
afternoon...generally along and east of the I-44/I-55 corridor.
Should see storms diminish during the evening with the loss of
daytime heating.

Keeping with the slightly drier trend to the forecast, have lowered
PoPs a bit on Sunday as weak shortwave ridging moves over the CWFA
in the wake of Saturday`s trof.  With no obvious focus for surface
convection showing up in the guidance, think the only real shot for
convective initiation will be orographic effects from the Ozarks.
Therefore have kept chance/slight chance PoPs along and south of the
I-70 corridor Sunday assuming there will be scattered storms down
there which will migrate northeastward.

Little change to the forecast for next week...other than to bump up
temperatures a little for Thursday and Friday.  The next shortwave
is still on track to dig into the Great Plains on Sunday
evening...moving into the Midwest by Monday morning.  While medium
range guidance is in general agreement with the timing of the wave,
the GFS shows a sharper/deeper wave while the ECMWF is less
amplified.  The surface front is still forecast to dip into central
Missouri before stalling Monday night.  The front remains over
Missouri and southern Illinois on Tuesday providing a focus for
convective development.  Have kept likely PoP Sunday night into
Monday night as the front moves in and lingering chance PoPs
continuing into midweek.  As the front moves back to the north
Thursday and Friday have lowered to slight chance and increased
temps as the upper level ridge builds back across the central U.S.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Focus over the next 24-30 hours will be on the chances of showers
and thunderstorms affecting the terminals. Band of showers and
thunderstorms ahead of a midlevel impulse is expected to translate
slowly eastward across the area through the day/night. Did my best
to time this area with convection first affecting KCOU this
afternoon...and rest of terminals by early evening. Broken line of
activity may weaken a bit and break up later on tonight as
stronger forcing for ascent translates north and east.
Precipitation should move off to the east of terminals by late
tonight though cannot rule out lingering showers or perhaps a
storm really anytime as associated cold front stalls out and never
really makes it through the area. Winds will veer to the southwest
and eventually to the west/southwest at KCOU and KUIN behind
boundary.


Specifics for KSTL:

Focus over the next 24-30 hours will be on the chances of showers
and thunderstorms affecting Lambert Field. Band of showers and
thunderstorms ahead of a midlevel impulse is expected to translate
slowly eastward across the area through the day/night. Showers
with embedded thunder possible is likely late this evening into
the early overnight period with visibilities possibly dipping into
MVFR or even IFR in heavier activity. Precipitation should move
off to the east of terminal by late tonight though cannot rule
out lingering showers or perhaps a storm really anytime as
associated cold front stalls out and never really makes it through
the area. Slightly better chance of showers and storms may
redevelop during the day tomorrow...especially along/in vicinity
of old cold front. Winds will remain out of the south and veer
to the southwest tomorrow afternoon.

Gosselin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     73  87  73  87 /  60  60  30  20
Quincy          69  85  67  86 /  60  40  10  10
Columbia        68  88  68  89 /  40  40  20  10
Jefferson City  68  87  69  89 /  40  40  20  10
Salem           71  85  71  84 /  50  60  50  30
Farmington      71  85  69  85 /  50  60  50  30

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 292055
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
355 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Main focus through tonight will be on precipitation chances. Compact
vort max/MCV will be main driver of precipitation through the period.
Tied highest PoPs with track of this feature which current radar
imagery supports as largest coverage of showers with embedded
thunderstorms is just ahead of this feature through early this evening.
Not sure how activity will evolve overnight...but do think that
activity may become more scattered with loss of bulk of daytime
instability and track of vort max to the north of CWA. Therefore...
did lower PoPs back for late tonight. Associated frontal boundary will
slowly ooze south and eastward overnigh and begin to washout/stall out
somewhere over the central portion of the CWA bisecting from southwest to
northeast. Temperatures will be seasonably warm...i.e. upper 60s to low
70s and did not deviate from guidance too much.

Gosselin

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Continuing with the short term theme of more scattered convection
associated with this system...have lowered PoPs for Saturday morning
across the entire area.  12Z model guidance from this morning backed
off precipitation chances and QPF for Saturday morning.  The upper
level trof will be flattening out and much of the vorticity will be
moving off to the northeast of the area.  Low level convergence will
be fairly weak and with only weak low level warm advection ahead of
the trof it looks like coverage will be limited.  Expect though as
the day heats up and the atmosphere becomes more unstable we`ll see
coverage increase.  Have therefore kept likely PoPs for Saturday
afternoon...generally along and east of the I-44/I-55 corridor.
Should see storms diminish during the evening with the loss of
daytime heating.

Keeping with the slightly drier trend to the forecast, have lowered
PoPs a bit on Sunday as weak shortwave ridging moves over the CWFA
in the wake of Saturday`s trof.  With no obvious focus for surface
convection showing up in the guidance, think the only real shot for
convective initiation will be orographic effects from the Ozarks.
Therefore have kept chance/slight chance PoPs along and south of the
I-70 corridor Sunday assuming there will be scattered storms down
there which will migrate northeastward.

Little change to the forecast for next week...other than to bump up
temperatures a little for Thursday and Friday.  The next shortwave
is still on track to dig into the Great Plains on Sunday
evening...moving into the Midwest by Monday morning.  While medium
range guidance is in general agreement with the timing of the wave,
the GFS shows a sharper/deeper wave while the ECMWF is less
amplified.  The surface front is still forecast to dip into central
Missouri before stalling Monday night.  The front remains over
Missouri and southern Illinois on Tuesday providing a focus for
convective development.  Have kept likely PoP Sunday night into
Monday night as the front moves in and lingering chance PoPs
continuing into midweek.  As the front moves back to the north
Thursday and Friday have lowered to slight chance and increased
temps as the upper level ridge builds back across the central U.S.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Focus over the next 24-30 hours will be on the chances of showers
and thunderstorms affecting the terminals. Band of showers and
thunderstorms ahead of a midlevel impulse is expected to translate
slowly eastward across the area through the day/night. Did my best
to time this area with convection first affecting KCOU this
afternoon...and rest of terminals by early evening. Broken line of
activity may weaken a bit and break up later on tonight as
stronger forcing for ascent translates north and east.
Precipitation should move off to the east of terminals by late
tonight though cannot rule out lingering showers or perhaps a
storm really anytime as associated cold front stalls out and never
really makes it through the area. Winds will veer to the southwest
and eventually to the west/southwest at KCOU and KUIN behind
boundary.


Specifics for KSTL:

Focus over the next 24-30 hours will be on the chances of showers
and thunderstorms affecting Lambert Field. Band of showers and
thunderstorms ahead of a midlevel impulse is expected to translate
slowly eastward across the area through the day/night. Showers
with embedded thunder possible is likely late this evening into
the early overnight period with visibilities possibly dipping into
MVFR or even IFR in heavier activity. Precipitation should move
off to the east of terminal by late tonight though cannot rule
out lingering showers or perhaps a storm really anytime as
associated cold front stalls out and never really makes it through
the area. Slightly better chance of showers and storms may
redevelop during the day tomorrow...especially along/in vicinity
of old cold front. Winds will remain out of the south and veer
to the southwest tomorrow afternoon.

Gosselin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     73  87  73  87 /  60  60  30  20
Quincy          69  85  67  86 /  60  40  10  10
Columbia        68  88  68  89 /  40  40  20  10
Jefferson City  68  87  69  89 /  40  40  20  10
Salem           71  85  71  84 /  50  60  50  30
Farmington      71  85  69  85 /  50  60  50  30

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 292008
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
308 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Scattered showers and thunderstorms occurred in a relatively
narrow corridor in the right entrance region of jet streak over
eastern KS/western MO. Haven`t seen anything severe, but some
gusty winds may occur with stronger storms during the high point
of diurnal heating through early evening.

It may be a relatively quiet evening, however, some
shower/thunderstorm redevelopment is expected late tonight as a
weak sfc trough moves into the nw cwfa by 12z Saturday. This
boundary is expected to lose it`s identity/wash out with time
Sat/Sat night but still may help serve as a focus for scattered
convection Saturday afternoon and evening with the axis of a weak
upper level trough passing overhead. Went close to a mos blended
guidance for temperatures, but cloud cover will make high
temperatures a somewhat tough forecast for Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

No big changes to the forecast. The upper level subtropical ridge
will be suppressed to the south early next week as the belt of
mid level westerlies takes a dip to the south. Sunday should be
relatively quiet with modest shortwave ridge moving through the
area. Some brief diurnally driven convection may occur over the
far southern and eastern cwfa, but most areas are expected to
remain dry.

Better chances for rain will occur Monday into Tuesday with a
more sharply defined front that is expected to move south into
the area. It looks like better vertical shear will be in place for
storm organization during this time, particularly late Monday into
Tuesday, but forecasting overall MCS potential timing/placement is
difficult at best this far out.

Medium range guidance is a bit of a mixed bag. The ECMWF
reestablished the subtropical ridge into Mid MS Vly region/Ozarks
by early Thursday. The GFS lags that timing just a bit, but has
the same basic idea. Some lingering of precip may occur Wednesday
along the old frontal boundary, but precip chances should then
begin to wane by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue to develop and slowly spread east across
the region this afternoon. The majority of this activity this
afternoon will occur east of the KJLN TAF site. Winds will be out
of the south to southwest at around 10kt.

The scattered convection is expected to spread east of the area
this evening with the area remaining mainly dry. Then as an upper
level disturbance spreads into the region additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop Saturday morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Wise






000
FXUS63 KSGF 292008
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
308 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Scattered showers and thunderstorms occurred in a relatively
narrow corridor in the right entrance region of jet streak over
eastern KS/western MO. Haven`t seen anything severe, but some
gusty winds may occur with stronger storms during the high point
of diurnal heating through early evening.

It may be a relatively quiet evening, however, some
shower/thunderstorm redevelopment is expected late tonight as a
weak sfc trough moves into the nw cwfa by 12z Saturday. This
boundary is expected to lose it`s identity/wash out with time
Sat/Sat night but still may help serve as a focus for scattered
convection Saturday afternoon and evening with the axis of a weak
upper level trough passing overhead. Went close to a mos blended
guidance for temperatures, but cloud cover will make high
temperatures a somewhat tough forecast for Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

No big changes to the forecast. The upper level subtropical ridge
will be suppressed to the south early next week as the belt of
mid level westerlies takes a dip to the south. Sunday should be
relatively quiet with modest shortwave ridge moving through the
area. Some brief diurnally driven convection may occur over the
far southern and eastern cwfa, but most areas are expected to
remain dry.

Better chances for rain will occur Monday into Tuesday with a
more sharply defined front that is expected to move south into
the area. It looks like better vertical shear will be in place for
storm organization during this time, particularly late Monday into
Tuesday, but forecasting overall MCS potential timing/placement is
difficult at best this far out.

Medium range guidance is a bit of a mixed bag. The ECMWF
reestablished the subtropical ridge into Mid MS Vly region/Ozarks
by early Thursday. The GFS lags that timing just a bit, but has
the same basic idea. Some lingering of precip may occur Wednesday
along the old frontal boundary, but precip chances should then
begin to wane by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue to develop and slowly spread east across
the region this afternoon. The majority of this activity this
afternoon will occur east of the KJLN TAF site. Winds will be out
of the south to southwest at around 10kt.

The scattered convection is expected to spread east of the area
this evening with the area remaining mainly dry. Then as an upper
level disturbance spreads into the region additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop Saturday morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KEAX 291728
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1228 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1012 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Quick update this morning to account for latest radar and satellite
trends. Fairly potent upper-level wave inbound this morning as
seen on latest water vapor imagery. Ahead of this feature...upper-
level pressure along the 1.5 PVU surface showing a nice "treble clef"
signature with latest RUC analysis showing the trop undulation down
to almost 500-mb...not bad for this time of year! Pressure advection
in advance of this feature combined with decent upper divergence
aloft should continue to support organized shwrs and thunderstorms.
As this feature continues sliding east this morning...expect a
gradual increase in precip chances from west to east which should
result in very beneficial rainfall for a good portion of the area. In
general...QPF totals will likely range from a quarter to half
inch...with localized higher amounts possible with thunderstorm
activity. Pop/wx grids updated to reflect a slightly delayed arrival
time...but overall fcst trends remain unchanged.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For today, areas of scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop
along and ahead of an eastward-moving shortwave trough, resulting in
slowly increasing chances of precipitation this morning into the
evening across the CWA. The best chance of storms will spread from
early afternoon across eastern KS and far western MO to late evening
in central MO. Afternoon temperatures will be held down by clouds
and precipitation, keeping highs mainly in the 80s and the highest
readings in central MO where storms will be later to arrive. Not
much instability is expected to develop today with clouds arriving
early and temperatures aloft and no real significant temperature
perturbation along the trough to increase lapse rates, so do not
expect much of a strong/severe storm threat this afternoon or this
evening. However, if areas of central MO see a few peeks of sun
through early afternoon, an isolated more robust storm could develop
and could produce briefly gusty winds.

Precipitation will generally clear out from northwest to southeast
on Friday night, but may linger into Saturday across portions of
central MO as a second weak shortwave trough rides up over central
MO, especially if the weak surface boundary associated with today`s
shortwave trough can stall over the region and support convective
initiation on Saturday. High temperatures should be several degrees
warmer for Saturday and especially Sunday as skies clear, southerly
surface flow returns, and 850 hPa temperatures remain in the 18 to
21 C range.

The next round of thunderstorms is expected to be a bit more robust
Sunday night into early Monday morning along a southeastward moving
cold front. General model consensus brings the front through the CWA
between midnight and 9 AM Monday morning, although timing could
change a bit. MUCAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/kg range and bulk
shear values as high as 40 kts could support organized, potentially
strong multicell storms especially across northwest MO. Heavy rain
is also a threat with PWATs climbing to around 2 inches and bulk
shear vectors orienting parallel to the front to support training
storms. The overall severe threat will depend on timing of frontal
passage as storms should become elevated with time and instability
will decrease, but is expected mainly across northwest and northern
MO where upper-level forcing and flow is a bit stronger.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A complex of showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over
portions of the forecast area Monday morning as a cold front settles
into northwest Missouri. While not an optimal diurnal time for
severe weather with only modest instability forecast, will need to
monitor potential as dynamics from the large upper trough over the
northern tier of the country will yield moderate shear in advance of
the cold front. The upper trough will gradually deamplify, leaving
the surface cold front largely stationary Monday into Tuesday across
the northern half of the CWA. Periodic thunderstorm chances will
remain possible through Tuesday night as the region remains on the
southern periphery of strong upper dynamics and associated embedded
shortwave troughs traversing the area. A few storms may be strong
with moderate shear and instability, especially during the afternoon
and evening hours. With the boundary layer winds expected to remain
weak, the primary threat would be brief periods of damaging wind
gusts and hail to quarter-size. Pinpointing the timing and
specific locations of highest precipitation potential remains
challenging at this stage with convective details that will play
some role in frontal position and windows of strongest ascent both
unresolved.

The surface boundary is expected to retreat northward as a warm
front by Wednesday as heights begin to rise across the region. Only
a slight chance of thunderstorms is anticipated on Wednesday, with
dry conditions for the remainder of the work week. Likewise,
temperatures will return to above normal readings, with afternoon
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Complicated fcst this afternoon as large scale upper trough and
associated cold front will move through the area this
afternoon/evening. That said...latest radar trends showing a decent
swath of rain inbound to MCI with upstream obs over eastern KS
supporting a tempo IFR mention out of the gate. As this activity
clears to the north by 20z or so...attention then shifts to areas
upstream which are now destabilizing thanks to mostly clear skies. As
result...expect renewed shwr/storm activity later this afternoon with
a second tempo group added at all sites to account for this
possibility. Skies to slowly clear from west to east overnight which
should give rise to developing VSBY and low CIG restrictions. For
now...IFR restrictions offered at STJ with MVFR elsewhere.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...32
SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...32






000
FXUS63 KEAX 291728
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1228 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1012 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Quick update this morning to account for latest radar and satellite
trends. Fairly potent upper-level wave inbound this morning as
seen on latest water vapor imagery. Ahead of this feature...upper-
level pressure along the 1.5 PVU surface showing a nice "treble clef"
signature with latest RUC analysis showing the trop undulation down
to almost 500-mb...not bad for this time of year! Pressure advection
in advance of this feature combined with decent upper divergence
aloft should continue to support organized shwrs and thunderstorms.
As this feature continues sliding east this morning...expect a
gradual increase in precip chances from west to east which should
result in very beneficial rainfall for a good portion of the area. In
general...QPF totals will likely range from a quarter to half
inch...with localized higher amounts possible with thunderstorm
activity. Pop/wx grids updated to reflect a slightly delayed arrival
time...but overall fcst trends remain unchanged.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For today, areas of scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop
along and ahead of an eastward-moving shortwave trough, resulting in
slowly increasing chances of precipitation this morning into the
evening across the CWA. The best chance of storms will spread from
early afternoon across eastern KS and far western MO to late evening
in central MO. Afternoon temperatures will be held down by clouds
and precipitation, keeping highs mainly in the 80s and the highest
readings in central MO where storms will be later to arrive. Not
much instability is expected to develop today with clouds arriving
early and temperatures aloft and no real significant temperature
perturbation along the trough to increase lapse rates, so do not
expect much of a strong/severe storm threat this afternoon or this
evening. However, if areas of central MO see a few peeks of sun
through early afternoon, an isolated more robust storm could develop
and could produce briefly gusty winds.

Precipitation will generally clear out from northwest to southeast
on Friday night, but may linger into Saturday across portions of
central MO as a second weak shortwave trough rides up over central
MO, especially if the weak surface boundary associated with today`s
shortwave trough can stall over the region and support convective
initiation on Saturday. High temperatures should be several degrees
warmer for Saturday and especially Sunday as skies clear, southerly
surface flow returns, and 850 hPa temperatures remain in the 18 to
21 C range.

The next round of thunderstorms is expected to be a bit more robust
Sunday night into early Monday morning along a southeastward moving
cold front. General model consensus brings the front through the CWA
between midnight and 9 AM Monday morning, although timing could
change a bit. MUCAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/kg range and bulk
shear values as high as 40 kts could support organized, potentially
strong multicell storms especially across northwest MO. Heavy rain
is also a threat with PWATs climbing to around 2 inches and bulk
shear vectors orienting parallel to the front to support training
storms. The overall severe threat will depend on timing of frontal
passage as storms should become elevated with time and instability
will decrease, but is expected mainly across northwest and northern
MO where upper-level forcing and flow is a bit stronger.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A complex of showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over
portions of the forecast area Monday morning as a cold front settles
into northwest Missouri. While not an optimal diurnal time for
severe weather with only modest instability forecast, will need to
monitor potential as dynamics from the large upper trough over the
northern tier of the country will yield moderate shear in advance of
the cold front. The upper trough will gradually deamplify, leaving
the surface cold front largely stationary Monday into Tuesday across
the northern half of the CWA. Periodic thunderstorm chances will
remain possible through Tuesday night as the region remains on the
southern periphery of strong upper dynamics and associated embedded
shortwave troughs traversing the area. A few storms may be strong
with moderate shear and instability, especially during the afternoon
and evening hours. With the boundary layer winds expected to remain
weak, the primary threat would be brief periods of damaging wind
gusts and hail to quarter-size. Pinpointing the timing and
specific locations of highest precipitation potential remains
challenging at this stage with convective details that will play
some role in frontal position and windows of strongest ascent both
unresolved.

The surface boundary is expected to retreat northward as a warm
front by Wednesday as heights begin to rise across the region. Only
a slight chance of thunderstorms is anticipated on Wednesday, with
dry conditions for the remainder of the work week. Likewise,
temperatures will return to above normal readings, with afternoon
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Complicated fcst this afternoon as large scale upper trough and
associated cold front will move through the area this
afternoon/evening. That said...latest radar trends showing a decent
swath of rain inbound to MCI with upstream obs over eastern KS
supporting a tempo IFR mention out of the gate. As this activity
clears to the north by 20z or so...attention then shifts to areas
upstream which are now destabilizing thanks to mostly clear skies. As
result...expect renewed shwr/storm activity later this afternoon with
a second tempo group added at all sites to account for this
possibility. Skies to slowly clear from west to east overnight which
should give rise to developing VSBY and low CIG restrictions. For
now...IFR restrictions offered at STJ with MVFR elsewhere.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...32
SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KLSX 291721
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1221 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Sunday night)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

The primary forecast concern over the next 7 days is precipitation
chances.

An upper trough axis is forecast to move across the area
today/tomorrow accompanied by SH/TS. A surface low moving into
the Great Lakes will drag a cold front into MO/IL on Sat, but the
temperature gradient is forecast to be fairly weak and this looks
like more of a gentle wind shift line rather than a true exchange
of air masses. Even so, models show a secondary vort max clipping
the northern CWA on Sat and the wind shift line might act as a
focus for SH/TS development. It doesn`t look like solid rain for
the whole weekend, but it`s tough to rule out scattered SH/TS in
almost any forecast period because isentropic ascent starts to
increase ahead of the next trough almost as soon as the Fri/Sat
trough moves away from the area. The most likely time period for
mostly dry weather across most of the LSX CWA appears to be from
late Sat night through late Sun morning.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Precipitation chances increase again on Mon/Mon night ahead of an
approaching longwave trough. With several embedded vorticity
maxima moving through the base of the broad trough, scattered
SH/TS will be possible across MO/IL through Tue as a cold front
sinks towards the MO/IA border. The best opportunity for
precipitation appears to be on Mon morning as the nocturnal LLJ
veers and becomes focused across the CWA. The temperature gradient
is forecast to be stronger with this front compared to the
previous one, but models still show that the synoptic front never
makes it very far into MO before it is lifted back northward as a
warm front. Broad upper troughing then gives way to quasizonal
flow by Tue night followed by weak upper ridging towards the end
of the week.

Temperatures look seasonally warm, although there is more
uncertainty with temps on days when precipitation is expected.
If recent model runs are correct with the expansion of the upper
high over the southeastern CONUS, then expect a warming trend for
late next week.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Focus over the next 24-30 hours will be on the chances of showers
and thunderstorms affecting the terminals. Band of showers and
thunderstorms ahead of a midlevel impulse is expected to translate
slowly eastward across the area through the day/night. Did my best
to time this area with convection first affecting KCOU this
afternoon...and rest of terminals by early evening. Broken line of
activity may weaken a bit and break up later on tonight as
stronger forcing for ascent translates north and east.
Precipitation should move off to the east of terminals by late
tonight though cannot rule out lingering showers or perhaps a
storm really anytime as associated cold front stalls out and never
really makes it through the area. Winds will veer to the southwest
and eventually to the west/southwest at KCOU and KUIN behind
boundary.


Specifics for KSTL:

Focus over the next 24-30 hours will be on the chances of showers
and thunderstorms affecting Lambert Field. Band of showers and
thunderstorms ahead of a midlevel impulse is expected to translate
slowly eastward across the area through the day/night. Showers
with embedded thunder possible is likely late this evening into
the early overnight period with visibilities possibly dipping into
MVFR or even IFR in heavier activity. Precipitation should move
off to the east of terminal by late tonight though cannot rule
out lingering showers or perhaps a storm really anytime as
associated cold front stalls out and never really makes it through
the area. Slightly better chance of showers and storms may
redevelop during the day tomorrow...especially along/in vicinity
of old cold front. Winds will remain out of the south and veer
to the southwest tomorrow afternoon.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 291721
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1221 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Sunday night)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

The primary forecast concern over the next 7 days is precipitation
chances.

An upper trough axis is forecast to move across the area
today/tomorrow accompanied by SH/TS. A surface low moving into
the Great Lakes will drag a cold front into MO/IL on Sat, but the
temperature gradient is forecast to be fairly weak and this looks
like more of a gentle wind shift line rather than a true exchange
of air masses. Even so, models show a secondary vort max clipping
the northern CWA on Sat and the wind shift line might act as a
focus for SH/TS development. It doesn`t look like solid rain for
the whole weekend, but it`s tough to rule out scattered SH/TS in
almost any forecast period because isentropic ascent starts to
increase ahead of the next trough almost as soon as the Fri/Sat
trough moves away from the area. The most likely time period for
mostly dry weather across most of the LSX CWA appears to be from
late Sat night through late Sun morning.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Precipitation chances increase again on Mon/Mon night ahead of an
approaching longwave trough. With several embedded vorticity
maxima moving through the base of the broad trough, scattered
SH/TS will be possible across MO/IL through Tue as a cold front
sinks towards the MO/IA border. The best opportunity for
precipitation appears to be on Mon morning as the nocturnal LLJ
veers and becomes focused across the CWA. The temperature gradient
is forecast to be stronger with this front compared to the
previous one, but models still show that the synoptic front never
makes it very far into MO before it is lifted back northward as a
warm front. Broad upper troughing then gives way to quasizonal
flow by Tue night followed by weak upper ridging towards the end
of the week.

Temperatures look seasonally warm, although there is more
uncertainty with temps on days when precipitation is expected.
If recent model runs are correct with the expansion of the upper
high over the southeastern CONUS, then expect a warming trend for
late next week.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Focus over the next 24-30 hours will be on the chances of showers
and thunderstorms affecting the terminals. Band of showers and
thunderstorms ahead of a midlevel impulse is expected to translate
slowly eastward across the area through the day/night. Did my best
to time this area with convection first affecting KCOU this
afternoon...and rest of terminals by early evening. Broken line of
activity may weaken a bit and break up later on tonight as
stronger forcing for ascent translates north and east.
Precipitation should move off to the east of terminals by late
tonight though cannot rule out lingering showers or perhaps a
storm really anytime as associated cold front stalls out and never
really makes it through the area. Winds will veer to the southwest
and eventually to the west/southwest at KCOU and KUIN behind
boundary.


Specifics for KSTL:

Focus over the next 24-30 hours will be on the chances of showers
and thunderstorms affecting Lambert Field. Band of showers and
thunderstorms ahead of a midlevel impulse is expected to translate
slowly eastward across the area through the day/night. Showers
with embedded thunder possible is likely late this evening into
the early overnight period with visibilities possibly dipping into
MVFR or even IFR in heavier activity. Precipitation should move
off to the east of terminal by late tonight though cannot rule
out lingering showers or perhaps a storm really anytime as
associated cold front stalls out and never really makes it through
the area. Slightly better chance of showers and storms may
redevelop during the day tomorrow...especially along/in vicinity
of old cold front. Winds will remain out of the south and veer
to the southwest tomorrow afternoon.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 291721
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1221 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Sunday night)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

The primary forecast concern over the next 7 days is precipitation
chances.

An upper trough axis is forecast to move across the area
today/tomorrow accompanied by SH/TS. A surface low moving into
the Great Lakes will drag a cold front into MO/IL on Sat, but the
temperature gradient is forecast to be fairly weak and this looks
like more of a gentle wind shift line rather than a true exchange
of air masses. Even so, models show a secondary vort max clipping
the northern CWA on Sat and the wind shift line might act as a
focus for SH/TS development. It doesn`t look like solid rain for
the whole weekend, but it`s tough to rule out scattered SH/TS in
almost any forecast period because isentropic ascent starts to
increase ahead of the next trough almost as soon as the Fri/Sat
trough moves away from the area. The most likely time period for
mostly dry weather across most of the LSX CWA appears to be from
late Sat night through late Sun morning.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Precipitation chances increase again on Mon/Mon night ahead of an
approaching longwave trough. With several embedded vorticity
maxima moving through the base of the broad trough, scattered
SH/TS will be possible across MO/IL through Tue as a cold front
sinks towards the MO/IA border. The best opportunity for
precipitation appears to be on Mon morning as the nocturnal LLJ
veers and becomes focused across the CWA. The temperature gradient
is forecast to be stronger with this front compared to the
previous one, but models still show that the synoptic front never
makes it very far into MO before it is lifted back northward as a
warm front. Broad upper troughing then gives way to quasizonal
flow by Tue night followed by weak upper ridging towards the end
of the week.

Temperatures look seasonally warm, although there is more
uncertainty with temps on days when precipitation is expected.
If recent model runs are correct with the expansion of the upper
high over the southeastern CONUS, then expect a warming trend for
late next week.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Focus over the next 24-30 hours will be on the chances of showers
and thunderstorms affecting the terminals. Band of showers and
thunderstorms ahead of a midlevel impulse is expected to translate
slowly eastward across the area through the day/night. Did my best
to time this area with convection first affecting KCOU this
afternoon...and rest of terminals by early evening. Broken line of
activity may weaken a bit and break up later on tonight as
stronger forcing for ascent translates north and east.
Precipitation should move off to the east of terminals by late
tonight though cannot rule out lingering showers or perhaps a
storm really anytime as associated cold front stalls out and never
really makes it through the area. Winds will veer to the southwest
and eventually to the west/southwest at KCOU and KUIN behind
boundary.


Specifics for KSTL:

Focus over the next 24-30 hours will be on the chances of showers
and thunderstorms affecting Lambert Field. Band of showers and
thunderstorms ahead of a midlevel impulse is expected to translate
slowly eastward across the area through the day/night. Showers
with embedded thunder possible is likely late this evening into
the early overnight period with visibilities possibly dipping into
MVFR or even IFR in heavier activity. Precipitation should move
off to the east of terminal by late tonight though cannot rule
out lingering showers or perhaps a storm really anytime as
associated cold front stalls out and never really makes it through
the area. Slightly better chance of showers and storms may
redevelop during the day tomorrow...especially along/in vicinity
of old cold front. Winds will remain out of the south and veer
to the southwest tomorrow afternoon.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 291721
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1221 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Sunday night)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

The primary forecast concern over the next 7 days is precipitation
chances.

An upper trough axis is forecast to move across the area
today/tomorrow accompanied by SH/TS. A surface low moving into
the Great Lakes will drag a cold front into MO/IL on Sat, but the
temperature gradient is forecast to be fairly weak and this looks
like more of a gentle wind shift line rather than a true exchange
of air masses. Even so, models show a secondary vort max clipping
the northern CWA on Sat and the wind shift line might act as a
focus for SH/TS development. It doesn`t look like solid rain for
the whole weekend, but it`s tough to rule out scattered SH/TS in
almost any forecast period because isentropic ascent starts to
increase ahead of the next trough almost as soon as the Fri/Sat
trough moves away from the area. The most likely time period for
mostly dry weather across most of the LSX CWA appears to be from
late Sat night through late Sun morning.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Precipitation chances increase again on Mon/Mon night ahead of an
approaching longwave trough. With several embedded vorticity
maxima moving through the base of the broad trough, scattered
SH/TS will be possible across MO/IL through Tue as a cold front
sinks towards the MO/IA border. The best opportunity for
precipitation appears to be on Mon morning as the nocturnal LLJ
veers and becomes focused across the CWA. The temperature gradient
is forecast to be stronger with this front compared to the
previous one, but models still show that the synoptic front never
makes it very far into MO before it is lifted back northward as a
warm front. Broad upper troughing then gives way to quasizonal
flow by Tue night followed by weak upper ridging towards the end
of the week.

Temperatures look seasonally warm, although there is more
uncertainty with temps on days when precipitation is expected.
If recent model runs are correct with the expansion of the upper
high over the southeastern CONUS, then expect a warming trend for
late next week.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Focus over the next 24-30 hours will be on the chances of showers
and thunderstorms affecting the terminals. Band of showers and
thunderstorms ahead of a midlevel impulse is expected to translate
slowly eastward across the area through the day/night. Did my best
to time this area with convection first affecting KCOU this
afternoon...and rest of terminals by early evening. Broken line of
activity may weaken a bit and break up later on tonight as
stronger forcing for ascent translates north and east.
Precipitation should move off to the east of terminals by late
tonight though cannot rule out lingering showers or perhaps a
storm really anytime as associated cold front stalls out and never
really makes it through the area. Winds will veer to the southwest
and eventually to the west/southwest at KCOU and KUIN behind
boundary.


Specifics for KSTL:

Focus over the next 24-30 hours will be on the chances of showers
and thunderstorms affecting Lambert Field. Band of showers and
thunderstorms ahead of a midlevel impulse is expected to translate
slowly eastward across the area through the day/night. Showers
with embedded thunder possible is likely late this evening into
the early overnight period with visibilities possibly dipping into
MVFR or even IFR in heavier activity. Precipitation should move
off to the east of terminal by late tonight though cannot rule
out lingering showers or perhaps a storm really anytime as
associated cold front stalls out and never really makes it through
the area. Slightly better chance of showers and storms may
redevelop during the day tomorrow...especially along/in vicinity
of old cold front. Winds will remain out of the south and veer
to the southwest tomorrow afternoon.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 291704
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1204 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 243 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

An upper level storm system was currently located over central
Kansas this morning and slowly moving to the east. This will bring
some much needed and widespread rainfall to the area. Radar is
showing showers and thunderstorms developing over southern Kansas
into Oklahoma. This will gradually increase in coverage later
today over our local area.

Forecast Bulk shear is only about 20 knots and lapse rates are not
expected to become particularly steep. General thunder is expected
with an isolated stronger storm possible but severe weather is not
expected. The main threat will be cloud to ground lightning today
and through the holiday weekend. Thunderstorms will likely this
afternoon through tonight and Saturday morning. Average QPF for
rainfall across the area today through Saturday will be around an
1 to 1.5 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

The eastern half of the area will have the better chance for more
showers and storms Saturday afternoon with a gradual tapering off
from west to east Saturday night. Sunday will be a less active day
with only isolated convection around and that will be mainly
confine to the eastern Ozarks and south central Missouri area. The
main upper level wave will have exit our area and Sunday looks
like the best day of the holiday weekend.

Another upper level wave will move across the Central Plains
region on Monday and bring another weak front into the area.
Thunderstorm chances will increase Monday especially across
central Missouri and areas north of I-44.

That frontal boundary appears that it will stall out Monday night
across the Ozarks and linger through at least Tuesday and maybe
Wednesday. An upper level high will setup across the Arklatex
region and the Missouri Ozarks will be on the northern periphery of
that with several weak impulses moving across the area and
interacting with that boundary. It is impossible to exactly
pinpoint the times for rainfall but will generally keep in at
least scattered pops Tuesday through Wednesday. The upper level
ridge will expand and control our weather by later next week.
Temperatures appear to be seasonable warm next week. Another one
to two inches of widespread rainfall looks very possible early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue to develop and slowly spread east across
the region this afternoon. The majority of this activity this
afternoon will occur east of the KJLN TAF site. Winds will be out
of the south to southwest at around 10kt.

The scattered convection is expected to spread east of the area
this evening with the area remaining mainly dry. Then as an upper
level disturbance spreads into the region additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop Saturday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Wise






000
FXUS63 KSGF 291704
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1204 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 243 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

An upper level storm system was currently located over central
Kansas this morning and slowly moving to the east. This will bring
some much needed and widespread rainfall to the area. Radar is
showing showers and thunderstorms developing over southern Kansas
into Oklahoma. This will gradually increase in coverage later
today over our local area.

Forecast Bulk shear is only about 20 knots and lapse rates are not
expected to become particularly steep. General thunder is expected
with an isolated stronger storm possible but severe weather is not
expected. The main threat will be cloud to ground lightning today
and through the holiday weekend. Thunderstorms will likely this
afternoon through tonight and Saturday morning. Average QPF for
rainfall across the area today through Saturday will be around an
1 to 1.5 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

The eastern half of the area will have the better chance for more
showers and storms Saturday afternoon with a gradual tapering off
from west to east Saturday night. Sunday will be a less active day
with only isolated convection around and that will be mainly
confine to the eastern Ozarks and south central Missouri area. The
main upper level wave will have exit our area and Sunday looks
like the best day of the holiday weekend.

Another upper level wave will move across the Central Plains
region on Monday and bring another weak front into the area.
Thunderstorm chances will increase Monday especially across
central Missouri and areas north of I-44.

That frontal boundary appears that it will stall out Monday night
across the Ozarks and linger through at least Tuesday and maybe
Wednesday. An upper level high will setup across the Arklatex
region and the Missouri Ozarks will be on the northern periphery of
that with several weak impulses moving across the area and
interacting with that boundary. It is impossible to exactly
pinpoint the times for rainfall but will generally keep in at
least scattered pops Tuesday through Wednesday. The upper level
ridge will expand and control our weather by later next week.
Temperatures appear to be seasonable warm next week. Another one
to two inches of widespread rainfall looks very possible early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue to develop and slowly spread east across
the region this afternoon. The majority of this activity this
afternoon will occur east of the KJLN TAF site. Winds will be out
of the south to southwest at around 10kt.

The scattered convection is expected to spread east of the area
this evening with the area remaining mainly dry. Then as an upper
level disturbance spreads into the region additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop Saturday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Wise






000
FXUS63 KSGF 291704
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1204 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 243 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

An upper level storm system was currently located over central
Kansas this morning and slowly moving to the east. This will bring
some much needed and widespread rainfall to the area. Radar is
showing showers and thunderstorms developing over southern Kansas
into Oklahoma. This will gradually increase in coverage later
today over our local area.

Forecast Bulk shear is only about 20 knots and lapse rates are not
expected to become particularly steep. General thunder is expected
with an isolated stronger storm possible but severe weather is not
expected. The main threat will be cloud to ground lightning today
and through the holiday weekend. Thunderstorms will likely this
afternoon through tonight and Saturday morning. Average QPF for
rainfall across the area today through Saturday will be around an
1 to 1.5 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

The eastern half of the area will have the better chance for more
showers and storms Saturday afternoon with a gradual tapering off
from west to east Saturday night. Sunday will be a less active day
with only isolated convection around and that will be mainly
confine to the eastern Ozarks and south central Missouri area. The
main upper level wave will have exit our area and Sunday looks
like the best day of the holiday weekend.

Another upper level wave will move across the Central Plains
region on Monday and bring another weak front into the area.
Thunderstorm chances will increase Monday especially across
central Missouri and areas north of I-44.

That frontal boundary appears that it will stall out Monday night
across the Ozarks and linger through at least Tuesday and maybe
Wednesday. An upper level high will setup across the Arklatex
region and the Missouri Ozarks will be on the northern periphery of
that with several weak impulses moving across the area and
interacting with that boundary. It is impossible to exactly
pinpoint the times for rainfall but will generally keep in at
least scattered pops Tuesday through Wednesday. The upper level
ridge will expand and control our weather by later next week.
Temperatures appear to be seasonable warm next week. Another one
to two inches of widespread rainfall looks very possible early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue to develop and slowly spread east across
the region this afternoon. The majority of this activity this
afternoon will occur east of the KJLN TAF site. Winds will be out
of the south to southwest at around 10kt.

The scattered convection is expected to spread east of the area
this evening with the area remaining mainly dry. Then as an upper
level disturbance spreads into the region additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop Saturday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Wise






000
FXUS63 KSGF 291704
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1204 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 243 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

An upper level storm system was currently located over central
Kansas this morning and slowly moving to the east. This will bring
some much needed and widespread rainfall to the area. Radar is
showing showers and thunderstorms developing over southern Kansas
into Oklahoma. This will gradually increase in coverage later
today over our local area.

Forecast Bulk shear is only about 20 knots and lapse rates are not
expected to become particularly steep. General thunder is expected
with an isolated stronger storm possible but severe weather is not
expected. The main threat will be cloud to ground lightning today
and through the holiday weekend. Thunderstorms will likely this
afternoon through tonight and Saturday morning. Average QPF for
rainfall across the area today through Saturday will be around an
1 to 1.5 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

The eastern half of the area will have the better chance for more
showers and storms Saturday afternoon with a gradual tapering off
from west to east Saturday night. Sunday will be a less active day
with only isolated convection around and that will be mainly
confine to the eastern Ozarks and south central Missouri area. The
main upper level wave will have exit our area and Sunday looks
like the best day of the holiday weekend.

Another upper level wave will move across the Central Plains
region on Monday and bring another weak front into the area.
Thunderstorm chances will increase Monday especially across
central Missouri and areas north of I-44.

That frontal boundary appears that it will stall out Monday night
across the Ozarks and linger through at least Tuesday and maybe
Wednesday. An upper level high will setup across the Arklatex
region and the Missouri Ozarks will be on the northern periphery of
that with several weak impulses moving across the area and
interacting with that boundary. It is impossible to exactly
pinpoint the times for rainfall but will generally keep in at
least scattered pops Tuesday through Wednesday. The upper level
ridge will expand and control our weather by later next week.
Temperatures appear to be seasonable warm next week. Another one
to two inches of widespread rainfall looks very possible early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue to develop and slowly spread east across
the region this afternoon. The majority of this activity this
afternoon will occur east of the KJLN TAF site. Winds will be out
of the south to southwest at around 10kt.

The scattered convection is expected to spread east of the area
this evening with the area remaining mainly dry. Then as an upper
level disturbance spreads into the region additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop Saturday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Wise






000
FXUS63 KEAX 291512
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1012 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1012 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Quick update this morning to account for latest radar and satellite
trends. Fairly potent upper-level wave inbound this morning as
seen on latest water vapor imagery. Ahead of this feature...upper-
level pressure along the 1.5 PVU surface showing a nice "treble clef"
signature with latest RUC analysis showing the trop undulation down
to almost 500-mb...not bad for this time of year! Pressure advection
in advance of this feature combined with decent upper divergence
aloft should continue to support organized shwrs and thunderstorms.
As this feature continues sliding east this morning...expect a
gradual increase in precip chances from west to east which should
result in very beneficial rainfall for a good portion of the area. In
general...QPF totals will likely range from a quarter to half
inch...with localized higher amounts possible with thunderstorm
activity. Pop/wx grids updated to reflect a slightly delayed arrival
time...but overall fcst trends remain unchanged.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For today, areas of scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop
along and ahead of an eastward-moving shortwave trough, resulting in
slowly increasing chances of precipitation this morning into the
evening across the CWA. The best chance of storms will spread from
early afternoon across eastern KS and far western MO to late evening
in central MO. Afternoon temperatures will be held down by clouds
and precipitation, keeping highs mainly in the 80s and the highest
readings in central MO where storms will be later to arrive. Not
much instability is expected to develop today with clouds arriving
early and temperatures aloft and no real significant temperature
perturbation along the trough to increase lapse rates, so do not
expect much of a strong/severe storm threat this afternoon or this
evening. However, if areas of central MO see a few peeks of sun
through early afternoon, an isolated more robust storm could develop
and could produce briefly gusty winds.

Precipitation will generally clear out from northwest to southeast
on Friday night, but may linger into Saturday across portions of
central MO as a second weak shortwave trough rides up over central
MO, especially if the weak surface boundary associated with today`s
shortwave trough can stall over the region and support convective
initiation on Saturday. High temperatures should be several degrees
warmer for Saturday and especially Sunday as skies clear, southerly
surface flow returns, and 850 hPa temperatures remain in the 18 to
21 C range.

The next round of thunderstorms is expected to be a bit more robust
Sunday night into early Monday morning along a southeastward moving
cold front. General model consensus brings the front through the CWA
between midnight and 9 AM Monday morning, although timing could
change a bit. MUCAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/kg range and bulk
shear values as high as 40 kts could support organized, potentially
strong multicell storms especially across northwest MO. Heavy rain
is also a threat with PWATs climbing to around 2 inches and bulk
shear vectors orienting parallel to the front to support training
storms. The overall severe threat will depend on timing of frontal
passage as storms should become elevated with time and instability
will decrease, but is expected mainly across northwest and northern
MO where upper-level forcing and flow is a bit stronger.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A complex of showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over
portions of the forecast area Monday morning as a cold front settles
into northwest Missouri. While not an optimal diurnal time for
severe weather with only modest instability forecast, will need to
monitor potential as dynamics from the large upper trough over the
northern tier of the country will yield moderate shear in advance of
the cold front. The upper trough will gradually deamplify, leaving
the surface cold front largely stationary Monday into Tuesday across
the northern half of the CWA. Periodic thunderstorm chances will
remain possible through Tuesday night as the region remains on the
southern periphery of strong upper dynamics and associated embedded
shortwave troughs traversing the area. A few storms may be strong
with moderate shear and instability, especially during the afternoon
and evening hours. With the boundary layer winds expected to remain
weak, the primary threat would be brief periods of damaging wind
gusts and hail to quarter-size. Pinpointing the timing and
specific locations of highest precipitation potential remains
challenging at this stage with convective details that will play
some role in frontal position and windows of strongest ascent both
unresolved.

The surface boundary is expected to retreat northward as a warm
front by Wednesday as heights begin to rise across the region. Only
a slight chance of thunderstorms is anticipated on Wednesday, with
dry conditions for the remainder of the work week. Likewise,
temperatures will return to above normal readings, with afternoon
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 628 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VFR conditions are expected through most of the morning and early
afternoon across the region; however, a few isolated storms could
form in the vicinity of all TAF sites by 14z-17z along with scattered
to broken 4-5 kft ceilings. Showers and storms should become more
numerous across western MO this afternoon, then should push out of
the terminals between 00z-03z. Winds will become light and variable
early Saturday morning, resulting in patchy fog that could become
dense in places.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...32
SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 291512
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1012 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1012 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Quick update this morning to account for latest radar and satellite
trends. Fairly potent upper-level wave inbound this morning as
seen on latest water vapor imagery. Ahead of this feature...upper-
level pressure along the 1.5 PVU surface showing a nice "treble clef"
signature with latest RUC analysis showing the trop undulation down
to almost 500-mb...not bad for this time of year! Pressure advection
in advance of this feature combined with decent upper divergence
aloft should continue to support organized shwrs and thunderstorms.
As this feature continues sliding east this morning...expect a
gradual increase in precip chances from west to east which should
result in very beneficial rainfall for a good portion of the area. In
general...QPF totals will likely range from a quarter to half
inch...with localized higher amounts possible with thunderstorm
activity. Pop/wx grids updated to reflect a slightly delayed arrival
time...but overall fcst trends remain unchanged.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For today, areas of scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop
along and ahead of an eastward-moving shortwave trough, resulting in
slowly increasing chances of precipitation this morning into the
evening across the CWA. The best chance of storms will spread from
early afternoon across eastern KS and far western MO to late evening
in central MO. Afternoon temperatures will be held down by clouds
and precipitation, keeping highs mainly in the 80s and the highest
readings in central MO where storms will be later to arrive. Not
much instability is expected to develop today with clouds arriving
early and temperatures aloft and no real significant temperature
perturbation along the trough to increase lapse rates, so do not
expect much of a strong/severe storm threat this afternoon or this
evening. However, if areas of central MO see a few peeks of sun
through early afternoon, an isolated more robust storm could develop
and could produce briefly gusty winds.

Precipitation will generally clear out from northwest to southeast
on Friday night, but may linger into Saturday across portions of
central MO as a second weak shortwave trough rides up over central
MO, especially if the weak surface boundary associated with today`s
shortwave trough can stall over the region and support convective
initiation on Saturday. High temperatures should be several degrees
warmer for Saturday and especially Sunday as skies clear, southerly
surface flow returns, and 850 hPa temperatures remain in the 18 to
21 C range.

The next round of thunderstorms is expected to be a bit more robust
Sunday night into early Monday morning along a southeastward moving
cold front. General model consensus brings the front through the CWA
between midnight and 9 AM Monday morning, although timing could
change a bit. MUCAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/kg range and bulk
shear values as high as 40 kts could support organized, potentially
strong multicell storms especially across northwest MO. Heavy rain
is also a threat with PWATs climbing to around 2 inches and bulk
shear vectors orienting parallel to the front to support training
storms. The overall severe threat will depend on timing of frontal
passage as storms should become elevated with time and instability
will decrease, but is expected mainly across northwest and northern
MO where upper-level forcing and flow is a bit stronger.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A complex of showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over
portions of the forecast area Monday morning as a cold front settles
into northwest Missouri. While not an optimal diurnal time for
severe weather with only modest instability forecast, will need to
monitor potential as dynamics from the large upper trough over the
northern tier of the country will yield moderate shear in advance of
the cold front. The upper trough will gradually deamplify, leaving
the surface cold front largely stationary Monday into Tuesday across
the northern half of the CWA. Periodic thunderstorm chances will
remain possible through Tuesday night as the region remains on the
southern periphery of strong upper dynamics and associated embedded
shortwave troughs traversing the area. A few storms may be strong
with moderate shear and instability, especially during the afternoon
and evening hours. With the boundary layer winds expected to remain
weak, the primary threat would be brief periods of damaging wind
gusts and hail to quarter-size. Pinpointing the timing and
specific locations of highest precipitation potential remains
challenging at this stage with convective details that will play
some role in frontal position and windows of strongest ascent both
unresolved.

The surface boundary is expected to retreat northward as a warm
front by Wednesday as heights begin to rise across the region. Only
a slight chance of thunderstorms is anticipated on Wednesday, with
dry conditions for the remainder of the work week. Likewise,
temperatures will return to above normal readings, with afternoon
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 628 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VFR conditions are expected through most of the morning and early
afternoon across the region; however, a few isolated storms could
form in the vicinity of all TAF sites by 14z-17z along with scattered
to broken 4-5 kft ceilings. Showers and storms should become more
numerous across western MO this afternoon, then should push out of
the terminals between 00z-03z. Winds will become light and variable
early Saturday morning, resulting in patchy fog that could become
dense in places.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...32
SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 291512
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1012 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1012 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Quick update this morning to account for latest radar and satellite
trends. Fairly potent upper-level wave inbound this morning as
seen on latest water vapor imagery. Ahead of this feature...upper-
level pressure along the 1.5 PVU surface showing a nice "treble clef"
signature with latest RUC analysis showing the trop undulation down
to almost 500-mb...not bad for this time of year! Pressure advection
in advance of this feature combined with decent upper divergence
aloft should continue to support organized shwrs and thunderstorms.
As this feature continues sliding east this morning...expect a
gradual increase in precip chances from west to east which should
result in very beneficial rainfall for a good portion of the area. In
general...QPF totals will likely range from a quarter to half
inch...with localized higher amounts possible with thunderstorm
activity. Pop/wx grids updated to reflect a slightly delayed arrival
time...but overall fcst trends remain unchanged.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For today, areas of scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop
along and ahead of an eastward-moving shortwave trough, resulting in
slowly increasing chances of precipitation this morning into the
evening across the CWA. The best chance of storms will spread from
early afternoon across eastern KS and far western MO to late evening
in central MO. Afternoon temperatures will be held down by clouds
and precipitation, keeping highs mainly in the 80s and the highest
readings in central MO where storms will be later to arrive. Not
much instability is expected to develop today with clouds arriving
early and temperatures aloft and no real significant temperature
perturbation along the trough to increase lapse rates, so do not
expect much of a strong/severe storm threat this afternoon or this
evening. However, if areas of central MO see a few peeks of sun
through early afternoon, an isolated more robust storm could develop
and could produce briefly gusty winds.

Precipitation will generally clear out from northwest to southeast
on Friday night, but may linger into Saturday across portions of
central MO as a second weak shortwave trough rides up over central
MO, especially if the weak surface boundary associated with today`s
shortwave trough can stall over the region and support convective
initiation on Saturday. High temperatures should be several degrees
warmer for Saturday and especially Sunday as skies clear, southerly
surface flow returns, and 850 hPa temperatures remain in the 18 to
21 C range.

The next round of thunderstorms is expected to be a bit more robust
Sunday night into early Monday morning along a southeastward moving
cold front. General model consensus brings the front through the CWA
between midnight and 9 AM Monday morning, although timing could
change a bit. MUCAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/kg range and bulk
shear values as high as 40 kts could support organized, potentially
strong multicell storms especially across northwest MO. Heavy rain
is also a threat with PWATs climbing to around 2 inches and bulk
shear vectors orienting parallel to the front to support training
storms. The overall severe threat will depend on timing of frontal
passage as storms should become elevated with time and instability
will decrease, but is expected mainly across northwest and northern
MO where upper-level forcing and flow is a bit stronger.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A complex of showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over
portions of the forecast area Monday morning as a cold front settles
into northwest Missouri. While not an optimal diurnal time for
severe weather with only modest instability forecast, will need to
monitor potential as dynamics from the large upper trough over the
northern tier of the country will yield moderate shear in advance of
the cold front. The upper trough will gradually deamplify, leaving
the surface cold front largely stationary Monday into Tuesday across
the northern half of the CWA. Periodic thunderstorm chances will
remain possible through Tuesday night as the region remains on the
southern periphery of strong upper dynamics and associated embedded
shortwave troughs traversing the area. A few storms may be strong
with moderate shear and instability, especially during the afternoon
and evening hours. With the boundary layer winds expected to remain
weak, the primary threat would be brief periods of damaging wind
gusts and hail to quarter-size. Pinpointing the timing and
specific locations of highest precipitation potential remains
challenging at this stage with convective details that will play
some role in frontal position and windows of strongest ascent both
unresolved.

The surface boundary is expected to retreat northward as a warm
front by Wednesday as heights begin to rise across the region. Only
a slight chance of thunderstorms is anticipated on Wednesday, with
dry conditions for the remainder of the work week. Likewise,
temperatures will return to above normal readings, with afternoon
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 628 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VFR conditions are expected through most of the morning and early
afternoon across the region; however, a few isolated storms could
form in the vicinity of all TAF sites by 14z-17z along with scattered
to broken 4-5 kft ceilings. Showers and storms should become more
numerous across western MO this afternoon, then should push out of
the terminals between 00z-03z. Winds will become light and variable
early Saturday morning, resulting in patchy fog that could become
dense in places.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...32
SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KEAX 291512
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1012 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1012 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Quick update this morning to account for latest radar and satellite
trends. Fairly potent upper-level wave inbound this morning as
seen on latest water vapor imagery. Ahead of this feature...upper-
level pressure along the 1.5 PVU surface showing a nice "treble clef"
signature with latest RUC analysis showing the trop undulation down
to almost 500-mb...not bad for this time of year! Pressure advection
in advance of this feature combined with decent upper divergence
aloft should continue to support organized shwrs and thunderstorms.
As this feature continues sliding east this morning...expect a
gradual increase in precip chances from west to east which should
result in very beneficial rainfall for a good portion of the area. In
general...QPF totals will likely range from a quarter to half
inch...with localized higher amounts possible with thunderstorm
activity. Pop/wx grids updated to reflect a slightly delayed arrival
time...but overall fcst trends remain unchanged.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For today, areas of scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop
along and ahead of an eastward-moving shortwave trough, resulting in
slowly increasing chances of precipitation this morning into the
evening across the CWA. The best chance of storms will spread from
early afternoon across eastern KS and far western MO to late evening
in central MO. Afternoon temperatures will be held down by clouds
and precipitation, keeping highs mainly in the 80s and the highest
readings in central MO where storms will be later to arrive. Not
much instability is expected to develop today with clouds arriving
early and temperatures aloft and no real significant temperature
perturbation along the trough to increase lapse rates, so do not
expect much of a strong/severe storm threat this afternoon or this
evening. However, if areas of central MO see a few peeks of sun
through early afternoon, an isolated more robust storm could develop
and could produce briefly gusty winds.

Precipitation will generally clear out from northwest to southeast
on Friday night, but may linger into Saturday across portions of
central MO as a second weak shortwave trough rides up over central
MO, especially if the weak surface boundary associated with today`s
shortwave trough can stall over the region and support convective
initiation on Saturday. High temperatures should be several degrees
warmer for Saturday and especially Sunday as skies clear, southerly
surface flow returns, and 850 hPa temperatures remain in the 18 to
21 C range.

The next round of thunderstorms is expected to be a bit more robust
Sunday night into early Monday morning along a southeastward moving
cold front. General model consensus brings the front through the CWA
between midnight and 9 AM Monday morning, although timing could
change a bit. MUCAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/kg range and bulk
shear values as high as 40 kts could support organized, potentially
strong multicell storms especially across northwest MO. Heavy rain
is also a threat with PWATs climbing to around 2 inches and bulk
shear vectors orienting parallel to the front to support training
storms. The overall severe threat will depend on timing of frontal
passage as storms should become elevated with time and instability
will decrease, but is expected mainly across northwest and northern
MO where upper-level forcing and flow is a bit stronger.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A complex of showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over
portions of the forecast area Monday morning as a cold front settles
into northwest Missouri. While not an optimal diurnal time for
severe weather with only modest instability forecast, will need to
monitor potential as dynamics from the large upper trough over the
northern tier of the country will yield moderate shear in advance of
the cold front. The upper trough will gradually deamplify, leaving
the surface cold front largely stationary Monday into Tuesday across
the northern half of the CWA. Periodic thunderstorm chances will
remain possible through Tuesday night as the region remains on the
southern periphery of strong upper dynamics and associated embedded
shortwave troughs traversing the area. A few storms may be strong
with moderate shear and instability, especially during the afternoon
and evening hours. With the boundary layer winds expected to remain
weak, the primary threat would be brief periods of damaging wind
gusts and hail to quarter-size. Pinpointing the timing and
specific locations of highest precipitation potential remains
challenging at this stage with convective details that will play
some role in frontal position and windows of strongest ascent both
unresolved.

The surface boundary is expected to retreat northward as a warm
front by Wednesday as heights begin to rise across the region. Only
a slight chance of thunderstorms is anticipated on Wednesday, with
dry conditions for the remainder of the work week. Likewise,
temperatures will return to above normal readings, with afternoon
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 628 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VFR conditions are expected through most of the morning and early
afternoon across the region; however, a few isolated storms could
form in the vicinity of all TAF sites by 14z-17z along with scattered
to broken 4-5 kft ceilings. Showers and storms should become more
numerous across western MO this afternoon, then should push out of
the terminals between 00z-03z. Winds will become light and variable
early Saturday morning, resulting in patchy fog that could become
dense in places.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...32
SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Laflin








000
FXUS63 KSGF 291200
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
700 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 243 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

An upper level storm system was currently located over central
Kansas this morning and slowly moving to the east. This will bring
some much needed and widespread rainfall to the area. Radar is
showing showers and thunderstorms developing over southern Kansas
into Oklahoma. This will gradually increase in coverage later
today over our local area.

Forecast Bulk shear is only about 20 knots and lapse rates are not
expected to become particularly steep. General thunder is expected
with an isolated stronger storm possible but severe weather is not
expected. The main threat will be cloud to ground lightning today
and through the holiday weekend. Thunderstorms will likely this
afternoon through tonight and Saturday morning. Average QPF for
rainfall across the area today through Saturday will be around an
1 to 1.5 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

The eastern half of the area will have the better chance for more
showers and storms Saturday afternoon with a gradual tapering off
from west to east Saturday night. Sunday will be a less active day
with only isolated convection around and that will be mainly
confine to the eastern Ozarks and south central Missouri area. The
main upper level wave will have exit our area and Sunday looks
like the best day of the holiday weekend.

Another upper level wave will move across the Central Plains
region on Monday and bring another weak front into the area.
Thunderstorm chances will increase Monday especially across
central Missouri and areas north of I-44.

That frontal boundary appears that it will stall out Monday night
across the Ozarks and linger through at least Tuesday and maybe
Wednesday. An upper level high will setup across the Arklatex
region and the Missouri Ozarks will be on the northern periphery of
that with several weak impulses moving across the area and
interacting with that boundary. It is impossible to exactly
pinpoint the times for rainfall but will generally keep in at
least scattered pops Tuesday through Wednesday. The upper level
ridge will expand and control our weather by later next week.
Temperatures appear to be seasonable warm next week. Another one
to two inches of widespread rainfall looks very possible early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Pilots can expect increasing clouds and shower activity today and
tonight. Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop from the
southwest during the day which may lower ceilings and visibility
to near MVFR category for brief intervals. Otherwise VFR
conditions will prevail despite the showers and clouds. Will have
to monitor for patchy low clouds and fog tonight. Marginal low
level wind shear may develop late tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster






000
FXUS63 KSGF 291200
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
700 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 243 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

An upper level storm system was currently located over central
Kansas this morning and slowly moving to the east. This will bring
some much needed and widespread rainfall to the area. Radar is
showing showers and thunderstorms developing over southern Kansas
into Oklahoma. This will gradually increase in coverage later
today over our local area.

Forecast Bulk shear is only about 20 knots and lapse rates are not
expected to become particularly steep. General thunder is expected
with an isolated stronger storm possible but severe weather is not
expected. The main threat will be cloud to ground lightning today
and through the holiday weekend. Thunderstorms will likely this
afternoon through tonight and Saturday morning. Average QPF for
rainfall across the area today through Saturday will be around an
1 to 1.5 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

The eastern half of the area will have the better chance for more
showers and storms Saturday afternoon with a gradual tapering off
from west to east Saturday night. Sunday will be a less active day
with only isolated convection around and that will be mainly
confine to the eastern Ozarks and south central Missouri area. The
main upper level wave will have exit our area and Sunday looks
like the best day of the holiday weekend.

Another upper level wave will move across the Central Plains
region on Monday and bring another weak front into the area.
Thunderstorm chances will increase Monday especially across
central Missouri and areas north of I-44.

That frontal boundary appears that it will stall out Monday night
across the Ozarks and linger through at least Tuesday and maybe
Wednesday. An upper level high will setup across the Arklatex
region and the Missouri Ozarks will be on the northern periphery of
that with several weak impulses moving across the area and
interacting with that boundary. It is impossible to exactly
pinpoint the times for rainfall but will generally keep in at
least scattered pops Tuesday through Wednesday. The upper level
ridge will expand and control our weather by later next week.
Temperatures appear to be seasonable warm next week. Another one
to two inches of widespread rainfall looks very possible early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Pilots can expect increasing clouds and shower activity today and
tonight. Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop from the
southwest during the day which may lower ceilings and visibility
to near MVFR category for brief intervals. Otherwise VFR
conditions will prevail despite the showers and clouds. Will have
to monitor for patchy low clouds and fog tonight. Marginal low
level wind shear may develop late tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KLSX 291148
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
648 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Sunday night)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

The primary forecast concern over the next 7 days is precipitation
chances.

An upper trough axis is forecast to move across the area
today/tomorrow accompanied by SH/TS. A surface low moving into
the Great Lakes will drag a cold front into MO/IL on Sat, but the
temperature gradient is forecast to be fairly weak and this looks
like more of a gentle wind shift line rather than a true exchange
of air masses. Even so, models show a secondary vort max clipping
the northern CWA on Sat and the wind shift line might act as a
focus for SH/TS development. It doesn`t look like solid rain for
the whole weekend, but it`s tough to rule out scattered SH/TS in
almost any forecast period because isentropic ascent starts to
increase ahead of the next trough almost as soon as the Fri/Sat
trough moves away from the area. The most likely time period for
mostly dry weather across most of the LSX CWA appears to be from
late Sat night through late Sun morning.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Precipitation chances increase again on Mon/Mon night ahead of an
approaching longwave trough. With several embedded vorticity
maxima moving through the base of the broad trough, scattered
SH/TS will be possible across MO/IL through Tue as a cold front
sinks towards the MO/IA border. The best opportunity for
precipitation appears to be on Mon morning as the nocturnal LLJ
veers and becomes focused across the CWA. The temperature gradient
is forecast to be stronger with this front compared to the
previous one, but models still show that the synoptic front never
makes it very far into MO before it is lifted back northward as a
warm front. Broad upper troughing then gives way to quasizonal
flow by Tue night followed by weak upper ridging towards the end
of the week.

Temperatures look seasonally warm, although there is more
uncertainty with temps on days when precipitation is expected.
If recent model runs are correct with the expansion of the upper
high over the southeastern CONUS, then expect a warming trend for
late next week.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Precipitation chances will be on the increase tonight as a
weakening short wave trof move across the area. Models all seem
to agree that the accompanying surface cold front will not make
it across the area. With upper level support weakening and no
strong forcing at the surface, other than outflows, that puts
some question into the timing and coverage of the precipitaton.
Have thus settled for prob30s for this evening and overnight.

Specifics for KSTL: Will maintain vcts for this afternoon,
although with the warm front further north, suspect the coverage
may be less. Question is with the approaching but weakening system
tonight. Models all want to bring in precipitation, but seem to
what to highlight areas to the north and south. A prob30 looks
good for this evening and overnight.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 291148
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
648 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Sunday night)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

The primary forecast concern over the next 7 days is precipitation
chances.

An upper trough axis is forecast to move across the area
today/tomorrow accompanied by SH/TS. A surface low moving into
the Great Lakes will drag a cold front into MO/IL on Sat, but the
temperature gradient is forecast to be fairly weak and this looks
like more of a gentle wind shift line rather than a true exchange
of air masses. Even so, models show a secondary vort max clipping
the northern CWA on Sat and the wind shift line might act as a
focus for SH/TS development. It doesn`t look like solid rain for
the whole weekend, but it`s tough to rule out scattered SH/TS in
almost any forecast period because isentropic ascent starts to
increase ahead of the next trough almost as soon as the Fri/Sat
trough moves away from the area. The most likely time period for
mostly dry weather across most of the LSX CWA appears to be from
late Sat night through late Sun morning.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Precipitation chances increase again on Mon/Mon night ahead of an
approaching longwave trough. With several embedded vorticity
maxima moving through the base of the broad trough, scattered
SH/TS will be possible across MO/IL through Tue as a cold front
sinks towards the MO/IA border. The best opportunity for
precipitation appears to be on Mon morning as the nocturnal LLJ
veers and becomes focused across the CWA. The temperature gradient
is forecast to be stronger with this front compared to the
previous one, but models still show that the synoptic front never
makes it very far into MO before it is lifted back northward as a
warm front. Broad upper troughing then gives way to quasizonal
flow by Tue night followed by weak upper ridging towards the end
of the week.

Temperatures look seasonally warm, although there is more
uncertainty with temps on days when precipitation is expected.
If recent model runs are correct with the expansion of the upper
high over the southeastern CONUS, then expect a warming trend for
late next week.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Precipitation chances will be on the increase tonight as a
weakening short wave trof move across the area. Models all seem
to agree that the accompanying surface cold front will not make
it across the area. With upper level support weakening and no
strong forcing at the surface, other than outflows, that puts
some question into the timing and coverage of the precipitaton.
Have thus settled for prob30s for this evening and overnight.

Specifics for KSTL: Will maintain vcts for this afternoon,
although with the warm front further north, suspect the coverage
may be less. Question is with the approaching but weakening system
tonight. Models all want to bring in precipitation, but seem to
what to highlight areas to the north and south. A prob30 looks
good for this evening and overnight.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 291129
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
629 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For today, areas of scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop
along and ahead of an eastward-moving shortwave trough, resulting in
slowly increasing chances of precipitation this morning into the
evening across the CWA. The best chance of storms will spread from
early afternoon across eastern KS and far western MO to late evening
in central MO. Afternoon temperatures will be held down by clouds
and precipitation, keeping highs mainly in the 80s and the highest
readings in central MO where storms will be later to arrive. Not
much instability is expected to develop today with clouds arriving
early and temperatures aloft and no real significant temperature
perturbation along the trough to increase lapse rates, so do not
expect much of a strong/severe storm threat this afternoon or this
evening. However, if areas of central MO see a few peeks of sun
through early afternoon, an isolated more robust storm could develop
and could produce briefly gusty winds.

Precipitation will generally clear out from northwest to southeast
on Friday night, but may linger into Saturday across portions of
central MO as a second weak shortwave trough rides up over central
MO, especially if the weak surface boundary associated with today`s
shortwave trough can stall over the region and support convective
initiation on Saturday. High temperatures should be several degrees
warmer for Saturday and especially Sunday as skies clear, southerly
surface flow returns, and 850 hPa temperatures remain in the 18 to
21 C range.

The next round of thunderstorms is expected to be a bit more robust
Sunday night into early Monday morning along a southeastward moving
cold front. General model consensus brings the front through the CWA
between midnight and 9 AM Monday morning, although timing could
change a bit. MUCAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/kg range and bulk
shear values as high as 40 kts could support organized, potentially
strong multicell storms especially across northwest MO. Heavy rain
is also a threat with PWATs climbing to around 2 inches and bulk
shear vectors orienting parallel to the front to support training
storms. The overall severe threat will depend on timing of frontal
passage as storms should become elevated with time and instability
will decrease, but is expected mainly across northwest and northern
MO where upper-level forcing and flow is a bit stronger.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A complex of showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over
portions of the forecast area Monday morning as a cold front settles
into northwest Missouri. While not an optimal diurnal time for
severe weather with only modest instability forecast, will need to
monitor potential as dynamics from the large upper trough over the
northern tier of the country will yield moderate shear in advance of
the cold front. The upper trough will gradually deamplify, leaving
the surface cold front largely stationary Monday into Tuesday across
the northern half of the CWA. Periodic thunderstorm chances will
remain possible through Tuesday night as the region remains on the
southern periphery of strong upper dynamics and associated embedded
shortwave troughs traversing the area. A few storms may be strong
with moderate shear and instability, especially during the afternoon
and evening hours. With the boundary layer winds expected to remain
weak, the primary threat would be brief periods of damaging wind
gusts and hail to quarter-size. Pinpointing the timing and
specific locations of highest precipitation potential remains
challenging at this stage with convective details that will play
some role in frontal position and windows of strongest ascent both
unresolved.

The surface boundary is expected to retreat northward as a warm
front by Wednesday as heights begin to rise across the region. Only
a slight chance of thunderstorms is anticipated on Wednesday, with
dry conditions for the remainder of the work week. Likewise,
temperatures will return to above normal readings, with afternoon
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 628 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VFR conditions are expected through most of the morning and early
afternoon across the region; however, a few isolated storms could
form in the vicinity of all TAF sites by 14z-17z along with scattered
to broken 4-5 kft ceilings. Showers and storms should become more
numerous across western MO this afternoon, then should push out of
the terminals between 00z-03z. Winds will become light and variable
early Saturday morning, resulting in patchy fog that could become
dense in places.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KLSX 290836
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
336 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Sunday night)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

The primary forecast concern over the next 7 days is precipitation
chances.

An upper trough axis is forecast to move across the area
today/tomorrow accompanied by SH/TS. A surface low moving into
the Great Lakes will drag a cold front into MO/IL on Sat, but the
temperature gradient is forecast to be fairly weak and this looks
like more of a gentle wind shift line rather than a true exchange
of air masses. Even so, models show a secondary vort max clipping
the northern CWA on Sat and the wind shift line might act as a
focus for SH/TS development. It doesn`t look like solid rain for
the whole weekend, but it`s tough to rule out scattered SH/TS in
almost any forecast period because isentropic ascent starts to
increase ahead of the next trough almost as soon as the Fri/Sat
trough moves away from the area. The most likely time period for
mostly dry weather across most of the LSX CWA appears to be from
late Sat night through late Sun morning.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Precipitation chances increase again on Mon/Mon night ahead of an
approaching longwave trough. With several embedded vorticity
maxima moving through the base of the broad trough, scattered
SH/TS will be possible across MO/IL through Tue as a cold front
sinks towards the MO/IA border. The best opportunity for
precipitation appears to be on Mon morning as the nocturnal LLJ
veers and becomes focused across the CWA. The temperature gradient
is forecast to be stronger with this front compared to the
previous one, but models still show that the synoptic front never
makes it very far into MO before it is lifted back northward as a
warm front. Broad upper troughing then gives way to quasizonal
flow by Tue night followed by weak upper ridging towards the end
of the week.

Temperatures look seasonally warm, although there is more
uncertainty with temps on days when precipitation is expected.
If recent model runs are correct with the expansion of the upper
high over the southeastern CONUS, then expect a warming trend for
late next week.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

The GFS model appears overdone with its precipitation forecast
late tonight and will keep tafs dry. There may be a little fog
late tonight/early Friday morning, mainly in the St Louis metro
area, and especially where there was recent rainfall early this
evening. The MOS guidance does not have as low of vsbys as it has
forecast the past few nights. It appears that the surface wind in
UIN and COU will be a little stronger than the previous couple of
nights. Sely surface wind late tonight will become sly on Friday
with scattered storms expected again during the late afternoon and
evening hours due to unstable conditions ahead of an approaching
upper level disturbance.

Specifics for KSTL: A light sely surface wind late tonight will
become sly on Friday and increase to 9-11 kts in the afternoon.
Scattered diurnal cumulus clouds should develop late Friday
morning and afternoon with scattered storms in the late afternoon
and evening.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 290826
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
326 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For today, areas of scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop
along and ahead of an eastward-moving shortwave trough, resulting in
slowly increasing chances of precipitation this morning into the
evening across the CWA. The best chance of storms will spread from
early afternoon across eastern KS and far western MO to late evening
in central MO. Afternoon temperatures will be held down by clouds
and precipitation, keeping highs mainly in the 80s and the highest
readings in central MO where storms will be later to arrive. Not
much instability is expected to develop today with clouds arriving
early and temperatures aloft and no real significant temperature
perturbation along the trough to increase lapse rates, so do not
expect much of a strong/severe storm threat this afternoon or this
evening. However, if areas of central MO see a few peeks of sun
through early afternoon, an isolated more robust storm could develop
and could produce briefly gusty winds.

Precipitation will generally clear out from northwest to southeast
on Friday night, but may linger into Saturday across portions of
central MO as a second weak shortwave trough rides up over central
MO, especially if the weak surface boundary associated with today`s
shortwave trough can stall over the region and support convective
initiation on Saturday. High temperatures should be several degrees
warmer for Saturday and especially Sunday as skies clear, southerly
surface flow returns, and 850 hPa temperatures remain in the 18 to
21 C range.

The next round of thunderstorms is expected to be a bit more robust
Sunday night into early Monday morning along a southeastward moving
cold front. General model consensus brings the front through the CWA
between midnight and 9 AM Monday morning, although timing could
change a bit. MUCAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/kg range and bulk
shear values as high as 40 kts could support organized, potentially
strong multicell storms especially across northwest MO. Heavy rain
is also a threat with PWATs climbing to around 2 inches and bulk
shear vectors orienting parallel to the front to support training
storms. The overall severe threat will depend on timing of frontal
passage as storms should become elevated with time and instability
will decrease, but is expected mainly across northwest and northern
MO where upper-level forcing and flow is a bit stronger.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A complex of showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over
portions of the forecast area Monday morning as a cold front settles
into northwest Missouri. While not an optimal diurnal time for
severe weather with only modest instability forecast, will need to
monitor potential as dynamics from the large upper trough over the
northern tier of the country will yield moderate shear in advance of
the cold front. The upper trough will gradually deamplify, leaving
the surface cold front largely stationary Monday into Tuesday across
the northern half of the CWA. Periodic thunderstorm chances will
remain possible through Tuesday night as the region remains on the
southern periphery of strong upper dynamics and associated embedded
shortwave troughs traversing the area. A few storms may be strong
with moderate shear and instability, especially during the afternoon
and evening hours. With the boundary layer winds expected to remain
weak, the primary threat would be brief periods of damaging wind
gusts and hail to quarter-size. Pinpointing the timing and
specific locations of highest precipitation potential remains
challenging at this stage with convective details that will play
some role in frontal position and windows of strongest ascent both
unresolved.

The surface boundary is expected to retreat northward as a warm
front by Wednesday as heights begin to rise across the region. Only
a slight chance of thunderstorms is anticipated on Wednesday, with
dry conditions for the remainder of the work week. Likewise,
temperatures will return to above normal readings, with afternoon
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR conditions will likely prevail at all the terminals over the next
24 hours. The chance of seeing storms near the terminals before the
mid to late afternoon hours is looking increasingly remote outside of
the far northwest corner of Missouri, where we kept VCTS for the late
morning hours at KSTJ. Otherwise, expect storms to bubble up and
become widespread across the region by the mid-afternoon hours with
the activity likely moving to the east that evening. Confidence in
ceilings and visibilities associated with these afternoon storms is
low though, so have kept the terminals in the VFR range.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 290826
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
326 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For today, areas of scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop
along and ahead of an eastward-moving shortwave trough, resulting in
slowly increasing chances of precipitation this morning into the
evening across the CWA. The best chance of storms will spread from
early afternoon across eastern KS and far western MO to late evening
in central MO. Afternoon temperatures will be held down by clouds
and precipitation, keeping highs mainly in the 80s and the highest
readings in central MO where storms will be later to arrive. Not
much instability is expected to develop today with clouds arriving
early and temperatures aloft and no real significant temperature
perturbation along the trough to increase lapse rates, so do not
expect much of a strong/severe storm threat this afternoon or this
evening. However, if areas of central MO see a few peeks of sun
through early afternoon, an isolated more robust storm could develop
and could produce briefly gusty winds.

Precipitation will generally clear out from northwest to southeast
on Friday night, but may linger into Saturday across portions of
central MO as a second weak shortwave trough rides up over central
MO, especially if the weak surface boundary associated with today`s
shortwave trough can stall over the region and support convective
initiation on Saturday. High temperatures should be several degrees
warmer for Saturday and especially Sunday as skies clear, southerly
surface flow returns, and 850 hPa temperatures remain in the 18 to
21 C range.

The next round of thunderstorms is expected to be a bit more robust
Sunday night into early Monday morning along a southeastward moving
cold front. General model consensus brings the front through the CWA
between midnight and 9 AM Monday morning, although timing could
change a bit. MUCAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/kg range and bulk
shear values as high as 40 kts could support organized, potentially
strong multicell storms especially across northwest MO. Heavy rain
is also a threat with PWATs climbing to around 2 inches and bulk
shear vectors orienting parallel to the front to support training
storms. The overall severe threat will depend on timing of frontal
passage as storms should become elevated with time and instability
will decrease, but is expected mainly across northwest and northern
MO where upper-level forcing and flow is a bit stronger.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A complex of showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over
portions of the forecast area Monday morning as a cold front settles
into northwest Missouri. While not an optimal diurnal time for
severe weather with only modest instability forecast, will need to
monitor potential as dynamics from the large upper trough over the
northern tier of the country will yield moderate shear in advance of
the cold front. The upper trough will gradually deamplify, leaving
the surface cold front largely stationary Monday into Tuesday across
the northern half of the CWA. Periodic thunderstorm chances will
remain possible through Tuesday night as the region remains on the
southern periphery of strong upper dynamics and associated embedded
shortwave troughs traversing the area. A few storms may be strong
with moderate shear and instability, especially during the afternoon
and evening hours. With the boundary layer winds expected to remain
weak, the primary threat would be brief periods of damaging wind
gusts and hail to quarter-size. Pinpointing the timing and
specific locations of highest precipitation potential remains
challenging at this stage with convective details that will play
some role in frontal position and windows of strongest ascent both
unresolved.

The surface boundary is expected to retreat northward as a warm
front by Wednesday as heights begin to rise across the region. Only
a slight chance of thunderstorms is anticipated on Wednesday, with
dry conditions for the remainder of the work week. Likewise,
temperatures will return to above normal readings, with afternoon
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR conditions will likely prevail at all the terminals over the next
24 hours. The chance of seeing storms near the terminals before the
mid to late afternoon hours is looking increasingly remote outside of
the far northwest corner of Missouri, where we kept VCTS for the late
morning hours at KSTJ. Otherwise, expect storms to bubble up and
become widespread across the region by the mid-afternoon hours with
the activity likely moving to the east that evening. Confidence in
ceilings and visibilities associated with these afternoon storms is
low though, so have kept the terminals in the VFR range.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KSGF 290811
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
311 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

...Much Needed Rainfall for the Missouri Ozarks Today Through Tomorrow...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 243 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

An upper level storm system was currently located over central
Kansas this morning and slowly moving to the east. This will bring
some much needed and widespread rainfall to the area. Radar is
showing showers and thunderstorms developing over southern Kansas
into Oklahoma. This will gradually increase in coverage later
today over our local area.

Forecast Bulk shear is only about 20 knots and lapse rates are not
expected to become particularly steep. General thunder is expected
with an isolated stronger storm possible but severe weather is not
expected. The main threat will be cloud to ground lightning today
and through the holiday weekend. Thunderstorms will likely this
afternoon through tonight and Saturday morning. Average QPF for
rainfall across the area today through Saturday will be around an
1 to 1.5 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

The eastern half of the area will have the better chance for more
showers and storms Saturday afternoon with a gradual tapering off
from west to east Saturday night. Sunday will be a less active day
with only isolated convection around and that will be mainly
confine to the eastern Ozarks and south central Missouri area. The
main upper level wave will have exit our area and Sunday looks
like the best day of the holiday weekend.

Another upper level wave will move across the Central Plains
region on Monday and bring another weak front into the area.
Thunderstorm chances will increase Monday especially across
central Missouri and areas north of I-44.

That frontal boundary appears that it will stall out Monday night
across the Ozarks and linger through at least Tuesday and maybe
Wednesday. An upper level high will setup across the Arklatex
region and the Missouri Ozarks will be on the northern periphery of
that with several weak impulses moving across the area and
interacting with that boundary. It is impossible to exactly
pinpoint the times for rainfall but will generally keep in at
least scattered pops Tuesday through Wednesday. The upper level
ridge will expand and control our weather by later next week.
Temperatures appear to be seasonable warm next week. Another one
to two inches of widespread rainfall looks very possible early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1108 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Upper level shortwave is approaching from the west tonight and was
over the central high Plains late this evening. Showers and
thunderstorms could spread into the western CWA during the morning
hours on Friday and across the remainder of the area by late
morning through the afternoon. Ceilings will lower with the
convection, but am keeping in VFR for the time being.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 290811
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
311 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

...Much Needed Rainfall for the Missouri Ozarks Today Through Tomorrow...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 243 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

An upper level storm system was currently located over central
Kansas this morning and slowly moving to the east. This will bring
some much needed and widespread rainfall to the area. Radar is
showing showers and thunderstorms developing over southern Kansas
into Oklahoma. This will gradually increase in coverage later
today over our local area.

Forecast Bulk shear is only about 20 knots and lapse rates are not
expected to become particularly steep. General thunder is expected
with an isolated stronger storm possible but severe weather is not
expected. The main threat will be cloud to ground lightning today
and through the holiday weekend. Thunderstorms will likely this
afternoon through tonight and Saturday morning. Average QPF for
rainfall across the area today through Saturday will be around an
1 to 1.5 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

The eastern half of the area will have the better chance for more
showers and storms Saturday afternoon with a gradual tapering off
from west to east Saturday night. Sunday will be a less active day
with only isolated convection around and that will be mainly
confine to the eastern Ozarks and south central Missouri area. The
main upper level wave will have exit our area and Sunday looks
like the best day of the holiday weekend.

Another upper level wave will move across the Central Plains
region on Monday and bring another weak front into the area.
Thunderstorm chances will increase Monday especially across
central Missouri and areas north of I-44.

That frontal boundary appears that it will stall out Monday night
across the Ozarks and linger through at least Tuesday and maybe
Wednesday. An upper level high will setup across the Arklatex
region and the Missouri Ozarks will be on the northern periphery of
that with several weak impulses moving across the area and
interacting with that boundary. It is impossible to exactly
pinpoint the times for rainfall but will generally keep in at
least scattered pops Tuesday through Wednesday. The upper level
ridge will expand and control our weather by later next week.
Temperatures appear to be seasonable warm next week. Another one
to two inches of widespread rainfall looks very possible early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1108 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Upper level shortwave is approaching from the west tonight and was
over the central high Plains late this evening. Showers and
thunderstorms could spread into the western CWA during the morning
hours on Friday and across the remainder of the area by late
morning through the afternoon. Ceilings will lower with the
convection, but am keeping in VFR for the time being.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KEAX 290506
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1206 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Pronounced thermal gradient across the CWA this afternoon as
long-impacting frontal boundary continues to lift north in advance
of large scale wave now dropping out of the central Rockies.
Regional radars showing a north-south oriented rain axis across
eastern Kansas this afternoon...with additional isolated activity
noted across north-central Missouri in closer proximity to
aforementioned warm front. This convection has led to a few stronger
cells just east of the EAX CWA which prompted the issuance of a few
severe thunderstorm warnings by our neighbors to the east. Closer to
our neck of the woods...cannot rule out an isolated stronger cell or
two along the boundary...but with large scale forcing for ascent
rather limited at this point...currently think chances are fairly
low. Reference SPC SWOMCD #1629 for more details.

Heading into tonight...main upper trough expected to slowly migrate
east across the central Plains...while the main warm front continues
lifting north. Fcst models again show developing convection during
the early morning hrs as another low-level jet of 30-35 kts develops
over the region. From this stand point...a slightly further eastward
position of main low-level wind max may favor a little more
organization that last night...but current thinking is best thata-e
convergence will likely be found just to our north in southern IA.
Despite this...models in good agreement that region will eventually
reside under the favorable right entrance region of an upper jet
streak located along the eastern periphery of approaching upper
wave...however true impacts from stronger divergence aloft may hold off
until around daybreak. In any event...increasing pressure advection
along the 1.5 PVU surface combined with modest isentropic ascent
along what appears to be a another weak theta-e gradient south of the
main front supports the highest pops across the western zones during
the predawn hrs. For now...have capped pops in the high chc category
across the far northwest with chc mention extending south along and
west of the I-35/Route 71 corridor.

Prospects for area-wide rainfall look to increase tomorrow as main
upper trough axis slides east over the area. Fcst models have been in
excellent agreement with this scenario hence the maintaining of likely
pops through much of the day. Storm movements will likely be
slow...but guidance is actually suggesting lower PWAT values as
the low-level moisture that has been pooled along the front slowly
lifts north of the area. Considering this...not overly concern with
flash flood potential tomorrow but later shifts will definitely have
to monitor the latest model trends to ensure this reasoning remains
in tact. With clouds and rain in the area...have trended towards the
lower end of guidance with highs in lower to middle 80s.

As mentioned above...upper trough to be a very slow mover which will
likely keep the treat for showers and storms going through much of
the Fri ngt/early Sat period. Have maintained likely pops across the
eastern 2/3rds of the CWA with overnight lows largely falling into
the middle to upper 60s. Finally some relief with respect to rainfall
chances set to arrive on Saturday as main trough axis finally slides
east. Have advertised a gradual improving trend through the day with
highs rebounding into the lower to middle 80s.

Towards the end of the weekend...focus will quickly shift to a
northern stream trough tracking east along the U.S./Canadian border.
As this feature ejects east from the northern Rockies...sfc low
pressure is expected to lift northeast from the northern Plains into
the Canadian Prairie provinces. As this occurs...reestablished southerly
flow will force a weak warm front north across our region. This
combined with secondary shortwave energy along the southern periphery
of the main northern U.S. storm system should allow for redeveloping
shwrs/storms Sunday afternoon through Monday.

Beyond this...fcst models begin to show some disagreement as main
synoptic scale front stalls somewhere in the vicinity. With
subtropical ridging expected to flatten thanks to the passing
northern stream system referenced above...very conceivable that the
stalled front will take up residence very close to our area. For
now...the ECMWF and Canadian-CMC show the farthest southward
position...while the GFS is further north and wetter. In any
event...have kept things dry beyond Wednesday as fairly strong sfc high
pressure building into the upper Miss Rvr Vly/western Great Lakes by
midweek should keep the main frontal feature to our south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR conditions will likely prevail at all the terminals over the next
24 hours. The chance of seeing storms near the terminals before the
mid to late afternoon hours is looking increasingly remote outside of
the far northwest corner of Missouri, where we kept VCTS for the late
morning hours at KSTJ. Otherwise, expect storms to bubble up and
become widespread across the region by the mid-afternoon hours with
the activity likely moving to the east that evening. Confidence in
ceilings and visibilities associated with these afternoon storms is
low though, so have kept the terminals in the VFR range.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 290506
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1206 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Pronounced thermal gradient across the CWA this afternoon as
long-impacting frontal boundary continues to lift north in advance
of large scale wave now dropping out of the central Rockies.
Regional radars showing a north-south oriented rain axis across
eastern Kansas this afternoon...with additional isolated activity
noted across north-central Missouri in closer proximity to
aforementioned warm front. This convection has led to a few stronger
cells just east of the EAX CWA which prompted the issuance of a few
severe thunderstorm warnings by our neighbors to the east. Closer to
our neck of the woods...cannot rule out an isolated stronger cell or
two along the boundary...but with large scale forcing for ascent
rather limited at this point...currently think chances are fairly
low. Reference SPC SWOMCD #1629 for more details.

Heading into tonight...main upper trough expected to slowly migrate
east across the central Plains...while the main warm front continues
lifting north. Fcst models again show developing convection during
the early morning hrs as another low-level jet of 30-35 kts develops
over the region. From this stand point...a slightly further eastward
position of main low-level wind max may favor a little more
organization that last night...but current thinking is best thata-e
convergence will likely be found just to our north in southern IA.
Despite this...models in good agreement that region will eventually
reside under the favorable right entrance region of an upper jet
streak located along the eastern periphery of approaching upper
wave...however true impacts from stronger divergence aloft may hold off
until around daybreak. In any event...increasing pressure advection
along the 1.5 PVU surface combined with modest isentropic ascent
along what appears to be a another weak theta-e gradient south of the
main front supports the highest pops across the western zones during
the predawn hrs. For now...have capped pops in the high chc category
across the far northwest with chc mention extending south along and
west of the I-35/Route 71 corridor.

Prospects for area-wide rainfall look to increase tomorrow as main
upper trough axis slides east over the area. Fcst models have been in
excellent agreement with this scenario hence the maintaining of likely
pops through much of the day. Storm movements will likely be
slow...but guidance is actually suggesting lower PWAT values as
the low-level moisture that has been pooled along the front slowly
lifts north of the area. Considering this...not overly concern with
flash flood potential tomorrow but later shifts will definitely have
to monitor the latest model trends to ensure this reasoning remains
in tact. With clouds and rain in the area...have trended towards the
lower end of guidance with highs in lower to middle 80s.

As mentioned above...upper trough to be a very slow mover which will
likely keep the treat for showers and storms going through much of
the Fri ngt/early Sat period. Have maintained likely pops across the
eastern 2/3rds of the CWA with overnight lows largely falling into
the middle to upper 60s. Finally some relief with respect to rainfall
chances set to arrive on Saturday as main trough axis finally slides
east. Have advertised a gradual improving trend through the day with
highs rebounding into the lower to middle 80s.

Towards the end of the weekend...focus will quickly shift to a
northern stream trough tracking east along the U.S./Canadian border.
As this feature ejects east from the northern Rockies...sfc low
pressure is expected to lift northeast from the northern Plains into
the Canadian Prairie provinces. As this occurs...reestablished southerly
flow will force a weak warm front north across our region. This
combined with secondary shortwave energy along the southern periphery
of the main northern U.S. storm system should allow for redeveloping
shwrs/storms Sunday afternoon through Monday.

Beyond this...fcst models begin to show some disagreement as main
synoptic scale front stalls somewhere in the vicinity. With
subtropical ridging expected to flatten thanks to the passing
northern stream system referenced above...very conceivable that the
stalled front will take up residence very close to our area. For
now...the ECMWF and Canadian-CMC show the farthest southward
position...while the GFS is further north and wetter. In any
event...have kept things dry beyond Wednesday as fairly strong sfc high
pressure building into the upper Miss Rvr Vly/western Great Lakes by
midweek should keep the main frontal feature to our south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR conditions will likely prevail at all the terminals over the next
24 hours. The chance of seeing storms near the terminals before the
mid to late afternoon hours is looking increasingly remote outside of
the far northwest corner of Missouri, where we kept VCTS for the late
morning hours at KSTJ. Otherwise, expect storms to bubble up and
become widespread across the region by the mid-afternoon hours with
the activity likely moving to the east that evening. Confidence in
ceilings and visibilities associated with these afternoon storms is
low though, so have kept the terminals in the VFR range.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KLSX 290423
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1123 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight - Saturday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Expect that convection from this afternoon will bleed over into
this evening before dissipating much like Wednesday night. Models
are redeveloping some nocturnal convection ahead of the trof in
the Plains to varying degrees, with the most bullish being the GFS
after midnight. The GFS cranks out .75 inch along and east of the
Mississippi river from St. Louis north. While I cannot totally
rule out overnight convection, the low level jet is pretty weak
and most of the isentropic lift will be well north of the area.
Have largely discounted the GFS for these reasons and only kept
slight chance/isolated PoPs overnight primarily for
northeast/northern zones.

Timing issues remain the primary problem for the approaching trof
Friday through Saturday.  Still thinking some scattered
thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon ahead of the trof;
but overall the models came in a bit faster with the eastward
progression.  Have sped up the introduction of likely PoPs Friday
night, and ended the likely PoPs sooner on Saturday.  Still holding
onto a chance/slight chance PoPs Saturday night as warm advection
aloft is forecast to begin again ahead of the next trof.  Seasonably
warm temperatures remain in the forecast through Saturday, though
highs will be very dependent on convection, especially on Saturday
afternoon.

Carney

.LONG TERM: (Sunday - Thursday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Sunday should be drier than Saturday as the area will be stuck
between trofs with weak ridging overhead.  Can`t rule out scattered
afternoon storms over the southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
The next trof in line is still forecast to move into the Midwest on
Monday.  There seems to be a little less agreement in the medium
range models on how far the south the associated cold front will
get.  Between the ECMWF and the GFS, the EC is further south with
the cold front, stalling it out near or just south of the I-70
corridor while the GFS keeps it further north near a line from St.
Joseph to Kirksville to Quincy.  Regardless, it looks like another
good chance for rain for parts of the area...primarily along and
north of the I-70 corridor Sunday night through Monday night or even
Tuesday.  The front will move back to the north Tuesday night and
Wednesday, but the GFS develops another round of convection Tuesday
night which pushes the effective front south into Arkansas
Wednesday.  This looks much less likely to me than the ECMWF
solution which simply pushes the front back to the north and allows
the heat to build back across the area.  Stuck pretty close to the
initial model blend for weather and temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday which keep highs in the mid to upper 80s, but this may be
too cool.  Will monitor trends and adjust over the next couple of
days as the models hopefully get a better handle on next week.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

The GFS model appears overdone with its precipitation forecast
late tonight and will keep tafs dry. There may be a little fog
late tonight/early Friday morning, mainly in the St Louis metro
area, and especially where there was recent rainfall early this
evening. The MOS guidance does not have as low of vsbys as it has
forecast the past few nights. It appears that the surface wind in
UIN and COU will be a little stronger than the previous couple of
nights. Sely surface wind late tonight will become sly on Friday
with scattered storms expected again during the late afternoon and
evening hours due to unstable conditions ahead of an approaching
upper level disturbance.

Specifics for KSTL: A light sely surface wind late tonight will
become sly on Friday and increase to 9-11 kts in the afternoon.
Scattered diurnal cumulus clouds should develop late Friday
morning and afternoon with scattered storms in the late afternoon
and evening.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     75  90  73  86 /  20  20  60  60
Quincy          72  86  69  84 /  30  40  60  40
Columbia        70  87  69  87 /  20  40  60  40
Jefferson City  71  88  70  87 /  20  40  60  40
Salem           73  88  72  84 /  20  20  50  60
Farmington      70  88  70  85 /  20  20  60  60

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 290423
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1123 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight - Saturday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Expect that convection from this afternoon will bleed over into
this evening before dissipating much like Wednesday night. Models
are redeveloping some nocturnal convection ahead of the trof in
the Plains to varying degrees, with the most bullish being the GFS
after midnight. The GFS cranks out .75 inch along and east of the
Mississippi river from St. Louis north. While I cannot totally
rule out overnight convection, the low level jet is pretty weak
and most of the isentropic lift will be well north of the area.
Have largely discounted the GFS for these reasons and only kept
slight chance/isolated PoPs overnight primarily for
northeast/northern zones.

Timing issues remain the primary problem for the approaching trof
Friday through Saturday.  Still thinking some scattered
thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon ahead of the trof;
but overall the models came in a bit faster with the eastward
progression.  Have sped up the introduction of likely PoPs Friday
night, and ended the likely PoPs sooner on Saturday.  Still holding
onto a chance/slight chance PoPs Saturday night as warm advection
aloft is forecast to begin again ahead of the next trof.  Seasonably
warm temperatures remain in the forecast through Saturday, though
highs will be very dependent on convection, especially on Saturday
afternoon.

Carney

.LONG TERM: (Sunday - Thursday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Sunday should be drier than Saturday as the area will be stuck
between trofs with weak ridging overhead.  Can`t rule out scattered
afternoon storms over the southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
The next trof in line is still forecast to move into the Midwest on
Monday.  There seems to be a little less agreement in the medium
range models on how far the south the associated cold front will
get.  Between the ECMWF and the GFS, the EC is further south with
the cold front, stalling it out near or just south of the I-70
corridor while the GFS keeps it further north near a line from St.
Joseph to Kirksville to Quincy.  Regardless, it looks like another
good chance for rain for parts of the area...primarily along and
north of the I-70 corridor Sunday night through Monday night or even
Tuesday.  The front will move back to the north Tuesday night and
Wednesday, but the GFS develops another round of convection Tuesday
night which pushes the effective front south into Arkansas
Wednesday.  This looks much less likely to me than the ECMWF
solution which simply pushes the front back to the north and allows
the heat to build back across the area.  Stuck pretty close to the
initial model blend for weather and temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday which keep highs in the mid to upper 80s, but this may be
too cool.  Will monitor trends and adjust over the next couple of
days as the models hopefully get a better handle on next week.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

The GFS model appears overdone with its precipitation forecast
late tonight and will keep tafs dry. There may be a little fog
late tonight/early Friday morning, mainly in the St Louis metro
area, and especially where there was recent rainfall early this
evening. The MOS guidance does not have as low of vsbys as it has
forecast the past few nights. It appears that the surface wind in
UIN and COU will be a little stronger than the previous couple of
nights. Sely surface wind late tonight will become sly on Friday
with scattered storms expected again during the late afternoon and
evening hours due to unstable conditions ahead of an approaching
upper level disturbance.

Specifics for KSTL: A light sely surface wind late tonight will
become sly on Friday and increase to 9-11 kts in the afternoon.
Scattered diurnal cumulus clouds should develop late Friday
morning and afternoon with scattered storms in the late afternoon
and evening.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     75  90  73  86 /  20  20  60  60
Quincy          72  86  69  84 /  30  40  60  40
Columbia        70  87  69  87 /  20  40  60  40
Jefferson City  71  88  70  87 /  20  40  60  40
Salem           73  88  72  84 /  20  20  50  60
Farmington      70  88  70  85 /  20  20  60  60

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 290410
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1110 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

Animated water vapor indicated a clockwise circulation directly
over southern Missouri this afternoon. This summertime high center
was suppressing updrafts so far, and will likely continue to do so
through the rest of the evening. Therefore we`d be surprised to
see any showers or thunderstorms develop today. The Ozarks airmass
is also quite a bit drier than yesterday, with PWATS falling to
around 1.3 inches, which is not ideal for pulse thunderstorms.

The good news is that storms and rainfall are on the way for
Friday into Saturday. A storm system, currently located over
Colorado, will approach the Ozarks region tomorrow morning.

Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this feature and
gradually translate eastward with time.

We think there could be a limited risk for some strong to severe
storms Friday afternoon for areas along and east of Highway 65.

The HiRes ARW and NMM suggested deeper convection to develop
around 18-21Z. While deep layer shear is only progged to be around
15-25 knots, there could be enough instability in this region for
some stronger updrafts. As of now, we`re going to insert a limited
risk into the Hazardous Weather Outlook, thinking the risk is very
marginal at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

As the upper wave slowly moves across southern Missouri, several
models suggest scattered convection to continue into Friday night
and Saturday. We don`t think this is going to be a washout, with
convection being more scattered in nature. Therefore we have
decent precipitation probabilities going from Friday night through
Saturday.

We begin to lower precipitation chances Saturday night through
Sunday as the wave dampens out, and upper flow becomes more
zonal through the rest of the holiday weekend. With that said, we
couldn`t take precipitation chances out completely, since the
Ozarks airmass will remain moist and unstable, and any minor
shortwave would have a shot at triggering showers or storms
somewhere.

With all the outdoor activities occurring across the Ozarks this
weekend, we recommend keeping abreast of the weather situation.
The primary risk would be associated with cloud to ground
lightning near any thunderstorms.

Heading into early next week, the summertime high rebuilds across
the Arklatex, positioning southern Missouri in the northern
periphery of the high. This will be a good location for
thunderstorm development from a large scale standpoint. We`ll get
a better feel for exactly when and where those will occur as we get
closer in time.

Have a fantastic and safe Labor Day Weekend !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1108 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Upper level shortwave is approaching from the west tonight and was
over the central high Plains late this evening. Showers and
thunderstorms could spread into the western CWA during the morning
hours on Friday and across the remainder of the area by late
morning through the afternoon. Ceilings will lower with the
convection, but am keeping in VFR for the time being.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 290410
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1110 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

Animated water vapor indicated a clockwise circulation directly
over southern Missouri this afternoon. This summertime high center
was suppressing updrafts so far, and will likely continue to do so
through the rest of the evening. Therefore we`d be surprised to
see any showers or thunderstorms develop today. The Ozarks airmass
is also quite a bit drier than yesterday, with PWATS falling to
around 1.3 inches, which is not ideal for pulse thunderstorms.

The good news is that storms and rainfall are on the way for
Friday into Saturday. A storm system, currently located over
Colorado, will approach the Ozarks region tomorrow morning.

Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this feature and
gradually translate eastward with time.

We think there could be a limited risk for some strong to severe
storms Friday afternoon for areas along and east of Highway 65.

The HiRes ARW and NMM suggested deeper convection to develop
around 18-21Z. While deep layer shear is only progged to be around
15-25 knots, there could be enough instability in this region for
some stronger updrafts. As of now, we`re going to insert a limited
risk into the Hazardous Weather Outlook, thinking the risk is very
marginal at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

As the upper wave slowly moves across southern Missouri, several
models suggest scattered convection to continue into Friday night
and Saturday. We don`t think this is going to be a washout, with
convection being more scattered in nature. Therefore we have
decent precipitation probabilities going from Friday night through
Saturday.

We begin to lower precipitation chances Saturday night through
Sunday as the wave dampens out, and upper flow becomes more
zonal through the rest of the holiday weekend. With that said, we
couldn`t take precipitation chances out completely, since the
Ozarks airmass will remain moist and unstable, and any minor
shortwave would have a shot at triggering showers or storms
somewhere.

With all the outdoor activities occurring across the Ozarks this
weekend, we recommend keeping abreast of the weather situation.
The primary risk would be associated with cloud to ground
lightning near any thunderstorms.

Heading into early next week, the summertime high rebuilds across
the Arklatex, positioning southern Missouri in the northern
periphery of the high. This will be a good location for
thunderstorm development from a large scale standpoint. We`ll get
a better feel for exactly when and where those will occur as we get
closer in time.

Have a fantastic and safe Labor Day Weekend !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1108 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Upper level shortwave is approaching from the west tonight and was
over the central high Plains late this evening. Showers and
thunderstorms could spread into the western CWA during the morning
hours on Friday and across the remainder of the area by late
morning through the afternoon. Ceilings will lower with the
convection, but am keeping in VFR for the time being.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 282335
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
635 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

Animated water vapor indicated a clockwise circulation directly
over southern Missouri this afternoon. This summertime high center
was suppressing updrafts so far, and will likely continue to do so
through the rest of the evening. Therefore we`d be surprised to
see any showers or thunderstorms develop today. The Ozarks airmass
is also quite a bit drier than yesterday, with PWATS falling to
around 1.3 inches, which is not ideal for pulse thunderstorms.

The good news is that storms and rainfall are on the way for
Friday into Saturday. A storm system, currently located over
Colorado, will approach the Ozarks region tomorrow morning.

Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this feature and
gradually translate eastward with time.

We think there could be a limited risk for some strong to severe
storms Friday afternoon for areas along and east of Highway 65.

The HiRes ARW and NMM suggested deeper convection to develop
around 18-21Z. While deep layer shear is only progged to be around
15-25 knots, there could be enough instability in this region for
some stronger updrafts. As of now, we`re going to insert a limited
risk into the Hazardous Weather Outlook, thinking the risk is very
marginal at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

As the upper wave slowly moves across southern Missouri, several
models suggest scattered convection to continue into Friday night
and Saturday. We don`t think this is going to be a washout, with
convection being more scattered in nature. Therefore we have
decent precipitation probabilities going from Friday night through
Saturday.

We begin to lower precipitation chances Saturday night through
Sunday as the wave dampens out, and upper flow becomes more
zonal through the rest of the holiday weekend. With that said, we
couldn`t take precipitation chances out completely, since the
Ozarks airmass will remain moist and unstable, and any minor
shortwave would have a shot at triggering showers or storms
somewhere.

With all the outdoor activities occurring across the Ozarks this
weekend, we recommend keeping abreast of the weather situation.
The primary risk would be associated with cloud to ground
lightning near any thunderstorms.

Heading into early next week, the summertime high rebuilds across
the Arklatex, positioning southern Missouri in the northern
periphery of the high. This will be a good location for
thunderstorm development from a large scale standpoint. We`ll get
a better feel for exactly when and where those will occur as we get
closer in time.

Have a fantastic and safe Labor Day Weekend !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected through
late tonight. A surface cold front and upper level disturbance will
approach the region from the west late tonight and then move across
the taf sites on Saturday. Rain chances will increase after 12z-15z
Saturday from west to east and brought tempo/categorical wording
into the terminals for much of the day Saturday. A few of the
Meso-Models are indicating a break later in the afternoon at KJLN
and thus did back off to VCTS. Instability does increase later in the
taf period, especially affecting the KSGF and KBBG sites and did
mention thunder. MVFR ceilings possible within convective elements,
but for now kept VFR ceilings/visibilities.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Raberding







000
FXUS63 KSGF 282335
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
635 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

Animated water vapor indicated a clockwise circulation directly
over southern Missouri this afternoon. This summertime high center
was suppressing updrafts so far, and will likely continue to do so
through the rest of the evening. Therefore we`d be surprised to
see any showers or thunderstorms develop today. The Ozarks airmass
is also quite a bit drier than yesterday, with PWATS falling to
around 1.3 inches, which is not ideal for pulse thunderstorms.

The good news is that storms and rainfall are on the way for
Friday into Saturday. A storm system, currently located over
Colorado, will approach the Ozarks region tomorrow morning.

Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this feature and
gradually translate eastward with time.

We think there could be a limited risk for some strong to severe
storms Friday afternoon for areas along and east of Highway 65.

The HiRes ARW and NMM suggested deeper convection to develop
around 18-21Z. While deep layer shear is only progged to be around
15-25 knots, there could be enough instability in this region for
some stronger updrafts. As of now, we`re going to insert a limited
risk into the Hazardous Weather Outlook, thinking the risk is very
marginal at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

As the upper wave slowly moves across southern Missouri, several
models suggest scattered convection to continue into Friday night
and Saturday. We don`t think this is going to be a washout, with
convection being more scattered in nature. Therefore we have
decent precipitation probabilities going from Friday night through
Saturday.

We begin to lower precipitation chances Saturday night through
Sunday as the wave dampens out, and upper flow becomes more
zonal through the rest of the holiday weekend. With that said, we
couldn`t take precipitation chances out completely, since the
Ozarks airmass will remain moist and unstable, and any minor
shortwave would have a shot at triggering showers or storms
somewhere.

With all the outdoor activities occurring across the Ozarks this
weekend, we recommend keeping abreast of the weather situation.
The primary risk would be associated with cloud to ground
lightning near any thunderstorms.

Heading into early next week, the summertime high rebuilds across
the Arklatex, positioning southern Missouri in the northern
periphery of the high. This will be a good location for
thunderstorm development from a large scale standpoint. We`ll get
a better feel for exactly when and where those will occur as we get
closer in time.

Have a fantastic and safe Labor Day Weekend !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected through
late tonight. A surface cold front and upper level disturbance will
approach the region from the west late tonight and then move across
the taf sites on Saturday. Rain chances will increase after 12z-15z
Saturday from west to east and brought tempo/categorical wording
into the terminals for much of the day Saturday. A few of the
Meso-Models are indicating a break later in the afternoon at KJLN
and thus did back off to VCTS. Instability does increase later in the
taf period, especially affecting the KSGF and KBBG sites and did
mention thunder. MVFR ceilings possible within convective elements,
but for now kept VFR ceilings/visibilities.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Raberding







000
FXUS63 KSGF 282335
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
635 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

Animated water vapor indicated a clockwise circulation directly
over southern Missouri this afternoon. This summertime high center
was suppressing updrafts so far, and will likely continue to do so
through the rest of the evening. Therefore we`d be surprised to
see any showers or thunderstorms develop today. The Ozarks airmass
is also quite a bit drier than yesterday, with PWATS falling to
around 1.3 inches, which is not ideal for pulse thunderstorms.

The good news is that storms and rainfall are on the way for
Friday into Saturday. A storm system, currently located over
Colorado, will approach the Ozarks region tomorrow morning.

Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this feature and
gradually translate eastward with time.

We think there could be a limited risk for some strong to severe
storms Friday afternoon for areas along and east of Highway 65.

The HiRes ARW and NMM suggested deeper convection to develop
around 18-21Z. While deep layer shear is only progged to be around
15-25 knots, there could be enough instability in this region for
some stronger updrafts. As of now, we`re going to insert a limited
risk into the Hazardous Weather Outlook, thinking the risk is very
marginal at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

As the upper wave slowly moves across southern Missouri, several
models suggest scattered convection to continue into Friday night
and Saturday. We don`t think this is going to be a washout, with
convection being more scattered in nature. Therefore we have
decent precipitation probabilities going from Friday night through
Saturday.

We begin to lower precipitation chances Saturday night through
Sunday as the wave dampens out, and upper flow becomes more
zonal through the rest of the holiday weekend. With that said, we
couldn`t take precipitation chances out completely, since the
Ozarks airmass will remain moist and unstable, and any minor
shortwave would have a shot at triggering showers or storms
somewhere.

With all the outdoor activities occurring across the Ozarks this
weekend, we recommend keeping abreast of the weather situation.
The primary risk would be associated with cloud to ground
lightning near any thunderstorms.

Heading into early next week, the summertime high rebuilds across
the Arklatex, positioning southern Missouri in the northern
periphery of the high. This will be a good location for
thunderstorm development from a large scale standpoint. We`ll get
a better feel for exactly when and where those will occur as we get
closer in time.

Have a fantastic and safe Labor Day Weekend !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected through
late tonight. A surface cold front and upper level disturbance will
approach the region from the west late tonight and then move across
the taf sites on Saturday. Rain chances will increase after 12z-15z
Saturday from west to east and brought tempo/categorical wording
into the terminals for much of the day Saturday. A few of the
Meso-Models are indicating a break later in the afternoon at KJLN
and thus did back off to VCTS. Instability does increase later in the
taf period, especially affecting the KSGF and KBBG sites and did
mention thunder. MVFR ceilings possible within convective elements,
but for now kept VFR ceilings/visibilities.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Raberding







000
FXUS63 KSGF 282335
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
635 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

Animated water vapor indicated a clockwise circulation directly
over southern Missouri this afternoon. This summertime high center
was suppressing updrafts so far, and will likely continue to do so
through the rest of the evening. Therefore we`d be surprised to
see any showers or thunderstorms develop today. The Ozarks airmass
is also quite a bit drier than yesterday, with PWATS falling to
around 1.3 inches, which is not ideal for pulse thunderstorms.

The good news is that storms and rainfall are on the way for
Friday into Saturday. A storm system, currently located over
Colorado, will approach the Ozarks region tomorrow morning.

Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this feature and
gradually translate eastward with time.

We think there could be a limited risk for some strong to severe
storms Friday afternoon for areas along and east of Highway 65.

The HiRes ARW and NMM suggested deeper convection to develop
around 18-21Z. While deep layer shear is only progged to be around
15-25 knots, there could be enough instability in this region for
some stronger updrafts. As of now, we`re going to insert a limited
risk into the Hazardous Weather Outlook, thinking the risk is very
marginal at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

As the upper wave slowly moves across southern Missouri, several
models suggest scattered convection to continue into Friday night
and Saturday. We don`t think this is going to be a washout, with
convection being more scattered in nature. Therefore we have
decent precipitation probabilities going from Friday night through
Saturday.

We begin to lower precipitation chances Saturday night through
Sunday as the wave dampens out, and upper flow becomes more
zonal through the rest of the holiday weekend. With that said, we
couldn`t take precipitation chances out completely, since the
Ozarks airmass will remain moist and unstable, and any minor
shortwave would have a shot at triggering showers or storms
somewhere.

With all the outdoor activities occurring across the Ozarks this
weekend, we recommend keeping abreast of the weather situation.
The primary risk would be associated with cloud to ground
lightning near any thunderstorms.

Heading into early next week, the summertime high rebuilds across
the Arklatex, positioning southern Missouri in the northern
periphery of the high. This will be a good location for
thunderstorm development from a large scale standpoint. We`ll get
a better feel for exactly when and where those will occur as we get
closer in time.

Have a fantastic and safe Labor Day Weekend !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected through
late tonight. A surface cold front and upper level disturbance will
approach the region from the west late tonight and then move across
the taf sites on Saturday. Rain chances will increase after 12z-15z
Saturday from west to east and brought tempo/categorical wording
into the terminals for much of the day Saturday. A few of the
Meso-Models are indicating a break later in the afternoon at KJLN
and thus did back off to VCTS. Instability does increase later in the
taf period, especially affecting the KSGF and KBBG sites and did
mention thunder. MVFR ceilings possible within convective elements,
but for now kept VFR ceilings/visibilities.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Raberding







000
FXUS63 KEAX 282330
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
630 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Pronounced thermal gradient across the CWA this afternoon as
long-impacting frontal boundary continues to lift north in advance
of large scale wave now dropping out of the central Rockies.
Regional radars showing a north-south oriented rain axis across
eastern Kansas this afternoon...with additional isolated activity
noted across north-central Missouri in closer proximity to
aforementioned warm front. This convection has led to a few stronger
cells just east of the EAX CWA which prompted the issuance of a few
severe thunderstorm warnings by our neighbors to the east. Closer to
our neck of the woods...cannot rule out an isolated stronger cell or
two along the boundary...but with large scale forcing for ascent
rather limited at this point...currently think chances are fairly
low. Reference SPC SWOMCD #1629 for more details.

Heading into tonight...main upper trough expected to slowly migrate
east across the central Plains...while the main warm front continues
lifting north. Fcst models again show developing convection during
the early morning hrs as another low-level jet of 30-35 kts develops
over the region. From this stand point...a slightly further eastward
position of main low-level wind max may favor a little more
organization that last night...but current thinking is best thata-e
convergence will likely be found just to our north in southern IA.
Despite this...models in good agreement that region will eventually
reside under the favorable right entrance region of an upper jet
streak located along the eastern periphery of approaching upper
wave...however true impacts from stronger divergence aloft may hold off
until around daybreak. In any event...increasing pressure advection
along the 1.5 PVU surface combined with modest isentropic ascent
along what appears to be a another weak theta-e gradient south of the
main front supports the highest pops across the western zones during
the predawn hrs. For now...have capped pops in the high chc category
across the far northwest with chc mention extending south along and
west of the I-35/Route 71 corridor.

Prospects for area-wide rainfall look to increase tomorrow as main
upper trough axis slides east over the area. Fcst models have been in
excellent agreement with this scenario hence the maintaining of likely
pops through much of the day. Storm movements will likely be
slow...but guidance is actually suggesting lower PWAT values as
the low-level moisture that has been pooled along the front slowly
lifts north of the area. Considering this...not overly concern with
flash flood potential tomorrow but later shifts will definitely have
to monitor the latest model trends to ensure this reasoning remains
in tact. With clouds and rain in the area...have trended towards the
lower end of guidance with highs in lower to middle 80s.

As mentioned above...upper trough to be a very slow mover which will
likely keep the treat for showers and storms going through much of
the Fri ngt/early Sat period. Have maintained likely pops across the
eastern 2/3rds of the CWA with overnight lows largely falling into
the middle to upper 60s. Finally some relief with respect to rainfall
chances set to arrive on Saturday as main trough axis finally slides
east. Have advertised a gradual improving trend through the day with
highs rebounding into the lower to middle 80s.

Towards the end of the weekend...focus will quickly shift to a
northern stream trough tracking east along the U.S./Canadian border.
As this feature ejects east from the northern Rockies...sfc low
pressure is expected to lift northeast from the northern Plains into
the Canadian Prairie provinces. As this occurs...reestablished southerly
flow will force a weak warm front north across our region. This
combined with secondary shortwave energy along the southern periphery
of the main northern U.S. storm system should allow for redeveloping
shwrs/storms Sunday afternoon through Monday.

Beyond this...fcst models begin to show some disagreement as main
synoptic scale front stalls somewhere in the vicinity. With
subtropical ridging expected to flatten thanks to the passing
northern stream system referenced above...very conceivable that the
stalled front will take up residence very close to our area. For
now...the ECMWF and Canadian-CMC show the farthest southward
position...while the GFS is further north and wetter. In any
event...have kept things dry beyond Wednesday as fairly strong sfc high
pressure building into the upper Miss Rvr Vly/western Great Lakes by
midweek should keep the main frontal feature to our south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals over night. Issues at
these sites will likely develop around or after sunrise Friday as an
upper level trough swings through the Plains States. This will spark
some thunderstorm activity across the region, with storms likely at
the terminals late Friday afternoon. Have kept storms in the VFR
range owing to uncertainties in development and timing. Otherwise,
expect surface winds to remain from the south through Friday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KEAX 282330
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
630 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Pronounced thermal gradient across the CWA this afternoon as
long-impacting frontal boundary continues to lift north in advance
of large scale wave now dropping out of the central Rockies.
Regional radars showing a north-south oriented rain axis across
eastern Kansas this afternoon...with additional isolated activity
noted across north-central Missouri in closer proximity to
aforementioned warm front. This convection has led to a few stronger
cells just east of the EAX CWA which prompted the issuance of a few
severe thunderstorm warnings by our neighbors to the east. Closer to
our neck of the woods...cannot rule out an isolated stronger cell or
two along the boundary...but with large scale forcing for ascent
rather limited at this point...currently think chances are fairly
low. Reference SPC SWOMCD #1629 for more details.

Heading into tonight...main upper trough expected to slowly migrate
east across the central Plains...while the main warm front continues
lifting north. Fcst models again show developing convection during
the early morning hrs as another low-level jet of 30-35 kts develops
over the region. From this stand point...a slightly further eastward
position of main low-level wind max may favor a little more
organization that last night...but current thinking is best thata-e
convergence will likely be found just to our north in southern IA.
Despite this...models in good agreement that region will eventually
reside under the favorable right entrance region of an upper jet
streak located along the eastern periphery of approaching upper
wave...however true impacts from stronger divergence aloft may hold off
until around daybreak. In any event...increasing pressure advection
along the 1.5 PVU surface combined with modest isentropic ascent
along what appears to be a another weak theta-e gradient south of the
main front supports the highest pops across the western zones during
the predawn hrs. For now...have capped pops in the high chc category
across the far northwest with chc mention extending south along and
west of the I-35/Route 71 corridor.

Prospects for area-wide rainfall look to increase tomorrow as main
upper trough axis slides east over the area. Fcst models have been in
excellent agreement with this scenario hence the maintaining of likely
pops through much of the day. Storm movements will likely be
slow...but guidance is actually suggesting lower PWAT values as
the low-level moisture that has been pooled along the front slowly
lifts north of the area. Considering this...not overly concern with
flash flood potential tomorrow but later shifts will definitely have
to monitor the latest model trends to ensure this reasoning remains
in tact. With clouds and rain in the area...have trended towards the
lower end of guidance with highs in lower to middle 80s.

As mentioned above...upper trough to be a very slow mover which will
likely keep the treat for showers and storms going through much of
the Fri ngt/early Sat period. Have maintained likely pops across the
eastern 2/3rds of the CWA with overnight lows largely falling into
the middle to upper 60s. Finally some relief with respect to rainfall
chances set to arrive on Saturday as main trough axis finally slides
east. Have advertised a gradual improving trend through the day with
highs rebounding into the lower to middle 80s.

Towards the end of the weekend...focus will quickly shift to a
northern stream trough tracking east along the U.S./Canadian border.
As this feature ejects east from the northern Rockies...sfc low
pressure is expected to lift northeast from the northern Plains into
the Canadian Prairie provinces. As this occurs...reestablished southerly
flow will force a weak warm front north across our region. This
combined with secondary shortwave energy along the southern periphery
of the main northern U.S. storm system should allow for redeveloping
shwrs/storms Sunday afternoon through Monday.

Beyond this...fcst models begin to show some disagreement as main
synoptic scale front stalls somewhere in the vicinity. With
subtropical ridging expected to flatten thanks to the passing
northern stream system referenced above...very conceivable that the
stalled front will take up residence very close to our area. For
now...the ECMWF and Canadian-CMC show the farthest southward
position...while the GFS is further north and wetter. In any
event...have kept things dry beyond Wednesday as fairly strong sfc high
pressure building into the upper Miss Rvr Vly/western Great Lakes by
midweek should keep the main frontal feature to our south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals over night. Issues at
these sites will likely develop around or after sunrise Friday as an
upper level trough swings through the Plains States. This will spark
some thunderstorm activity across the region, with storms likely at
the terminals late Friday afternoon. Have kept storms in the VFR
range owing to uncertainties in development and timing. Otherwise,
expect surface winds to remain from the south through Friday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KEAX 282330
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
630 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Pronounced thermal gradient across the CWA this afternoon as
long-impacting frontal boundary continues to lift north in advance
of large scale wave now dropping out of the central Rockies.
Regional radars showing a north-south oriented rain axis across
eastern Kansas this afternoon...with additional isolated activity
noted across north-central Missouri in closer proximity to
aforementioned warm front. This convection has led to a few stronger
cells just east of the EAX CWA which prompted the issuance of a few
severe thunderstorm warnings by our neighbors to the east. Closer to
our neck of the woods...cannot rule out an isolated stronger cell or
two along the boundary...but with large scale forcing for ascent
rather limited at this point...currently think chances are fairly
low. Reference SPC SWOMCD #1629 for more details.

Heading into tonight...main upper trough expected to slowly migrate
east across the central Plains...while the main warm front continues
lifting north. Fcst models again show developing convection during
the early morning hrs as another low-level jet of 30-35 kts develops
over the region. From this stand point...a slightly further eastward
position of main low-level wind max may favor a little more
organization that last night...but current thinking is best thata-e
convergence will likely be found just to our north in southern IA.
Despite this...models in good agreement that region will eventually
reside under the favorable right entrance region of an upper jet
streak located along the eastern periphery of approaching upper
wave...however true impacts from stronger divergence aloft may hold off
until around daybreak. In any event...increasing pressure advection
along the 1.5 PVU surface combined with modest isentropic ascent
along what appears to be a another weak theta-e gradient south of the
main front supports the highest pops across the western zones during
the predawn hrs. For now...have capped pops in the high chc category
across the far northwest with chc mention extending south along and
west of the I-35/Route 71 corridor.

Prospects for area-wide rainfall look to increase tomorrow as main
upper trough axis slides east over the area. Fcst models have been in
excellent agreement with this scenario hence the maintaining of likely
pops through much of the day. Storm movements will likely be
slow...but guidance is actually suggesting lower PWAT values as
the low-level moisture that has been pooled along the front slowly
lifts north of the area. Considering this...not overly concern with
flash flood potential tomorrow but later shifts will definitely have
to monitor the latest model trends to ensure this reasoning remains
in tact. With clouds and rain in the area...have trended towards the
lower end of guidance with highs in lower to middle 80s.

As mentioned above...upper trough to be a very slow mover which will
likely keep the treat for showers and storms going through much of
the Fri ngt/early Sat period. Have maintained likely pops across the
eastern 2/3rds of the CWA with overnight lows largely falling into
the middle to upper 60s. Finally some relief with respect to rainfall
chances set to arrive on Saturday as main trough axis finally slides
east. Have advertised a gradual improving trend through the day with
highs rebounding into the lower to middle 80s.

Towards the end of the weekend...focus will quickly shift to a
northern stream trough tracking east along the U.S./Canadian border.
As this feature ejects east from the northern Rockies...sfc low
pressure is expected to lift northeast from the northern Plains into
the Canadian Prairie provinces. As this occurs...reestablished southerly
flow will force a weak warm front north across our region. This
combined with secondary shortwave energy along the southern periphery
of the main northern U.S. storm system should allow for redeveloping
shwrs/storms Sunday afternoon through Monday.

Beyond this...fcst models begin to show some disagreement as main
synoptic scale front stalls somewhere in the vicinity. With
subtropical ridging expected to flatten thanks to the passing
northern stream system referenced above...very conceivable that the
stalled front will take up residence very close to our area. For
now...the ECMWF and Canadian-CMC show the farthest southward
position...while the GFS is further north and wetter. In any
event...have kept things dry beyond Wednesday as fairly strong sfc high
pressure building into the upper Miss Rvr Vly/western Great Lakes by
midweek should keep the main frontal feature to our south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals over night. Issues at
these sites will likely develop around or after sunrise Friday as an
upper level trough swings through the Plains States. This will spark
some thunderstorm activity across the region, with storms likely at
the terminals late Friday afternoon. Have kept storms in the VFR
range owing to uncertainties in development and timing. Otherwise,
expect surface winds to remain from the south through Friday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KEAX 282330
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
630 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Pronounced thermal gradient across the CWA this afternoon as
long-impacting frontal boundary continues to lift north in advance
of large scale wave now dropping out of the central Rockies.
Regional radars showing a north-south oriented rain axis across
eastern Kansas this afternoon...with additional isolated activity
noted across north-central Missouri in closer proximity to
aforementioned warm front. This convection has led to a few stronger
cells just east of the EAX CWA which prompted the issuance of a few
severe thunderstorm warnings by our neighbors to the east. Closer to
our neck of the woods...cannot rule out an isolated stronger cell or
two along the boundary...but with large scale forcing for ascent
rather limited at this point...currently think chances are fairly
low. Reference SPC SWOMCD #1629 for more details.

Heading into tonight...main upper trough expected to slowly migrate
east across the central Plains...while the main warm front continues
lifting north. Fcst models again show developing convection during
the early morning hrs as another low-level jet of 30-35 kts develops
over the region. From this stand point...a slightly further eastward
position of main low-level wind max may favor a little more
organization that last night...but current thinking is best thata-e
convergence will likely be found just to our north in southern IA.
Despite this...models in good agreement that region will eventually
reside under the favorable right entrance region of an upper jet
streak located along the eastern periphery of approaching upper
wave...however true impacts from stronger divergence aloft may hold off
until around daybreak. In any event...increasing pressure advection
along the 1.5 PVU surface combined with modest isentropic ascent
along what appears to be a another weak theta-e gradient south of the
main front supports the highest pops across the western zones during
the predawn hrs. For now...have capped pops in the high chc category
across the far northwest with chc mention extending south along and
west of the I-35/Route 71 corridor.

Prospects for area-wide rainfall look to increase tomorrow as main
upper trough axis slides east over the area. Fcst models have been in
excellent agreement with this scenario hence the maintaining of likely
pops through much of the day. Storm movements will likely be
slow...but guidance is actually suggesting lower PWAT values as
the low-level moisture that has been pooled along the front slowly
lifts north of the area. Considering this...not overly concern with
flash flood potential tomorrow but later shifts will definitely have
to monitor the latest model trends to ensure this reasoning remains
in tact. With clouds and rain in the area...have trended towards the
lower end of guidance with highs in lower to middle 80s.

As mentioned above...upper trough to be a very slow mover which will
likely keep the treat for showers and storms going through much of
the Fri ngt/early Sat period. Have maintained likely pops across the
eastern 2/3rds of the CWA with overnight lows largely falling into
the middle to upper 60s. Finally some relief with respect to rainfall
chances set to arrive on Saturday as main trough axis finally slides
east. Have advertised a gradual improving trend through the day with
highs rebounding into the lower to middle 80s.

Towards the end of the weekend...focus will quickly shift to a
northern stream trough tracking east along the U.S./Canadian border.
As this feature ejects east from the northern Rockies...sfc low
pressure is expected to lift northeast from the northern Plains into
the Canadian Prairie provinces. As this occurs...reestablished southerly
flow will force a weak warm front north across our region. This
combined with secondary shortwave energy along the southern periphery
of the main northern U.S. storm system should allow for redeveloping
shwrs/storms Sunday afternoon through Monday.

Beyond this...fcst models begin to show some disagreement as main
synoptic scale front stalls somewhere in the vicinity. With
subtropical ridging expected to flatten thanks to the passing
northern stream system referenced above...very conceivable that the
stalled front will take up residence very close to our area. For
now...the ECMWF and Canadian-CMC show the farthest southward
position...while the GFS is further north and wetter. In any
event...have kept things dry beyond Wednesday as fairly strong sfc high
pressure building into the upper Miss Rvr Vly/western Great Lakes by
midweek should keep the main frontal feature to our south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals over night. Issues at
these sites will likely develop around or after sunrise Friday as an
upper level trough swings through the Plains States. This will spark
some thunderstorm activity across the region, with storms likely at
the terminals late Friday afternoon. Have kept storms in the VFR
range owing to uncertainties in development and timing. Otherwise,
expect surface winds to remain from the south through Friday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KLSX 282307
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
607 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight - Saturday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Expect that convection from this afternoon will bleed over into
this evening before dissipating much like Wednesday night. Models
are redeveloping some nocturnal convection ahead of the trof in
the Plains to varying degrees, with the most bullish being the GFS
after midnight. The GFS cranks out .75 inch along and east of the
Mississippi river from St. Louis north. While I cannot totally
rule out overnight convection, the low level jet is pretty weak
and most of the isentropic lift will be well north of the area.
Have largely discounted the GFS for these reasons and only kept
slight chance/isolated PoPs overnight primarily for
northeast/northern zones.

Timing issues remain the primary problem for the approaching trof
Friday through Saturday.  Still thinking some scattered
thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon ahead of the trof;
but overall the models came in a bit faster with the eastward
progression.  Have sped up the introduction of likely PoPs Friday
night, and ended the likely PoPs sooner on Saturday.  Still holding
onto a chance/slight chance PoPs Saturday night as warm advection
aloft is forecast to begin again ahead of the next trof.  Seasonably
warm temperatures remain in the forecast through Saturday, though
highs will be very dependent on convection, especially on Saturday
afternoon.

Carney

.LONG TERM: (Sunday - Thursday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Sunday should be drier than Saturday as the area will be stuck
between trofs with weak ridging overhead.  Can`t rule out scattered
afternoon storms over the southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
The next trof in line is still forecast to move into the Midwest on
Monday.  There seems to be a little less agreement in the medium
range models on how far the south the associated cold front will
get.  Between the ECMWF and the GFS, the EC is further south with
the cold front, stalling it out near or just south of the I-70
corridor while the GFS keeps it further north near a line from St.
Joseph to Kirksville to Quincy.  Regardless, it looks like another
good chance for rain for parts of the area...primarily along and
north of the I-70 corridor Sunday night through Monday night or even
Tuesday.  The front will move back to the north Tuesday night and
Wednesday, but the GFS develops another round of convection Tuesday
night which pushes the effective front south into Arkansas
Wednesday.  This looks much less likely to me than the ECMWF
solution which simply pushes the front back to the north and allows
the heat to build back across the area.  Stuck pretty close to the
initial model blend for weather and temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday which keep highs in the mid to upper 80s, but this may be
too cool.  Will monitor trends and adjust over the next couple of
days as the models hopefully get a better handle on next week.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 542 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Scattered storms may continue to impact UIN and the St Louis
metro area until 01-02Z this evening. The GFS model appears
overdone with its precipitation forecast late tonight and will
keep tafs dry later this evening and overnight. There may be a
little fog late tonight/early Friday morning especially where
there is rainfall early this evening, although the MOS guidance
does not have as low of vsbys as it has forecast the past few
nights. It appears that the surface wind in UIN and COU will be a
little stronger than the previous couple of nights. Sely surface
wind tonight will become sly on Friday with scattered storms expected
again during the late afternoon and evening hours with unstable
conditions ahead of an approaching upper level disturbance.

Specifics for KSTL: The storms have just pushed north of STL, but
cannot rule out a few more storms until about 02Z this evening. A
light sely surface wind tonight will become sly on Friday and
increase to 8-10 kts in the afternoon. Scattered diurnal cumulus
clouds should develop late Friday morning and afternoon with
scattered storms in the late afternoon and evening.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     75  90  73  86 /  40  20  60  60
Quincy          72  86  69  84 /  40  40  60  40
Columbia        70  87  69  87 /  20  40  60  40
Jefferson City  71  88  70  87 /  20  40  60  40
Salem           73  88  72  84 /  40  20  50  60
Farmington      70  88  70  85 /  20  20  60  60

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 282307
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
607 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight - Saturday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Expect that convection from this afternoon will bleed over into
this evening before dissipating much like Wednesday night. Models
are redeveloping some nocturnal convection ahead of the trof in
the Plains to varying degrees, with the most bullish being the GFS
after midnight. The GFS cranks out .75 inch along and east of the
Mississippi river from St. Louis north. While I cannot totally
rule out overnight convection, the low level jet is pretty weak
and most of the isentropic lift will be well north of the area.
Have largely discounted the GFS for these reasons and only kept
slight chance/isolated PoPs overnight primarily for
northeast/northern zones.

Timing issues remain the primary problem for the approaching trof
Friday through Saturday.  Still thinking some scattered
thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon ahead of the trof;
but overall the models came in a bit faster with the eastward
progression.  Have sped up the introduction of likely PoPs Friday
night, and ended the likely PoPs sooner on Saturday.  Still holding
onto a chance/slight chance PoPs Saturday night as warm advection
aloft is forecast to begin again ahead of the next trof.  Seasonably
warm temperatures remain in the forecast through Saturday, though
highs will be very dependent on convection, especially on Saturday
afternoon.

Carney

.LONG TERM: (Sunday - Thursday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Sunday should be drier than Saturday as the area will be stuck
between trofs with weak ridging overhead.  Can`t rule out scattered
afternoon storms over the southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
The next trof in line is still forecast to move into the Midwest on
Monday.  There seems to be a little less agreement in the medium
range models on how far the south the associated cold front will
get.  Between the ECMWF and the GFS, the EC is further south with
the cold front, stalling it out near or just south of the I-70
corridor while the GFS keeps it further north near a line from St.
Joseph to Kirksville to Quincy.  Regardless, it looks like another
good chance for rain for parts of the area...primarily along and
north of the I-70 corridor Sunday night through Monday night or even
Tuesday.  The front will move back to the north Tuesday night and
Wednesday, but the GFS develops another round of convection Tuesday
night which pushes the effective front south into Arkansas
Wednesday.  This looks much less likely to me than the ECMWF
solution which simply pushes the front back to the north and allows
the heat to build back across the area.  Stuck pretty close to the
initial model blend for weather and temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday which keep highs in the mid to upper 80s, but this may be
too cool.  Will monitor trends and adjust over the next couple of
days as the models hopefully get a better handle on next week.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 542 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Scattered storms may continue to impact UIN and the St Louis
metro area until 01-02Z this evening. The GFS model appears
overdone with its precipitation forecast late tonight and will
keep tafs dry later this evening and overnight. There may be a
little fog late tonight/early Friday morning especially where
there is rainfall early this evening, although the MOS guidance
does not have as low of vsbys as it has forecast the past few
nights. It appears that the surface wind in UIN and COU will be a
little stronger than the previous couple of nights. Sely surface
wind tonight will become sly on Friday with scattered storms expected
again during the late afternoon and evening hours with unstable
conditions ahead of an approaching upper level disturbance.

Specifics for KSTL: The storms have just pushed north of STL, but
cannot rule out a few more storms until about 02Z this evening. A
light sely surface wind tonight will become sly on Friday and
increase to 8-10 kts in the afternoon. Scattered diurnal cumulus
clouds should develop late Friday morning and afternoon with
scattered storms in the late afternoon and evening.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     75  90  73  86 /  40  20  60  60
Quincy          72  86  69  84 /  40  40  60  40
Columbia        70  87  69  87 /  20  40  60  40
Jefferson City  71  88  70  87 /  20  40  60  40
Salem           73  88  72  84 /  40  20  50  60
Farmington      70  88  70  85 /  20  20  60  60

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 282102
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
402 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight - Saturday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Expect that convection from this afternoon will bleed over into
this evening before dissipating much like Wednesday night. Models
are redeveloping some nocturnal convection ahead of the trof in
the Plains to varying degrees, with the most bullish being the GFS
after midnight. The GFS cranks out .75 inch along and east of the
Mississippi river from St. Louis north. While I cannot totally
rule out overnight convection, the low level jet is pretty weak
and most of the isentropic lift will be well north of the area.
Have largely discounted the GFS for these reasons and only kept
slight chance/isolated PoPs overnight primarily for
northeast/northern zones.

Timing issues remain the primary problem for the approaching trof
Friday through Saturday.  Still thinking some scattered
thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon ahead of the trof;
but overall the models came in a bit faster with the eastward
progression.  Have sped up the introduction of likely PoPs Friday
night, and ended the likely PoPs sooner on Saturday.  Still holding
onto a chance/slight chance PoPs Saturday night as warm advection
aloft is forecast to begin again ahead of the next trof.  Seasonably
warm temperatures remain in the forecast through Saturday, though
highs will be very dependent on convection, especially on Saturday
afternoon.

Carney

.LONG TERM: (Sunday - Thursday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Sunday should be drier than Saturday as the area will be stuck
between trofs with weak ridging overhead.  Can`t rule out scattered
afternoon storms over the southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
The next trof in line is still forecast to move into the Midwest on
Monday.  There seems to be a little less agreement in the medium
range models on how far the south the associated cold front will
get.  Between the ECMWF and the GFS, the EC is further south with
the cold front, stalling it out near or just south of the I-70
corridor while the GFS keeps it further north near a line from St.
Joseph to Kirksville to Quincy.  Regardless, it looks like another
good chance for rain for parts of the area...primarily along and
north of the I-70 corridor Sunday night through Monday night or even
Tuesday.  The front will move back to the north Tuesday night and
Wednesday, but the GFS develops another round of convection Tuesday
night which pushes the effective front south into Arkansas
Wednesday.  This looks much less likely to me than the ECMWF
solution which simply pushes the front back to the north and allows
the heat to build back across the area.  Stuck pretty close to the
initial model blend for weather and temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday which keep highs in the mid to upper 80s, but this may be
too cool.  Will monitor trends and adjust over the next couple of
days as the models hopefully get a better handle on next week.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Main focus for the valid TAF period will be on convection. Diurnal
thunderstorms are likely to develop by mid afternoon with the best
chance of affecting the St. Louis metro terminals. Kept a VCTS for
now at KUIN...though beginning to have doubts about coverage of
storms that far north as instability is mainly confined to areas
to the south. Tonight should be mainly dry...as diurnal convection
weakens and dissipates by 0100-0300 UTC. Some models are
developing more showers and storms along and east of the
Mississippi River tonight but left mention out of TAFs for now due
to low confidence. During the day tomorrow looks like a better
chance for showers and storms to redevelop as a midlevel system
approaches form the west.

Specifics for KSTL:

Main focus for the valid TAF period will be on convection. Diurnal
thunderstorms are likely to develop by mid afternoon. Tonight
should be mainly dry...as diurnal convection weakens and
dissipates by 0100-0300 UTC. However...some models are initiating more
showers and storms along and east of the Mississippi River tonight
but left mention out of TAF for now due to low confidence. During
the day tomorrow looks like a better chance for showers and storms
to redevelop as a midlevel system approaches form the west so
added a VCTS mention for that possible activity.

Gosselin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     75  90  73  86 /  40  20  60  60
Quincy          72  86  69  84 /  40  40  60  40
Columbia        70  87  69  87 /  20  40  60  40
Jefferson City  71  88  70  87 /  20  40  60  40
Salem           73  88  72  84 /  40  20  50  60
Farmington      70  88  70  85 /  20  20  60  60

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 282102
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
402 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight - Saturday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Expect that convection from this afternoon will bleed over into
this evening before dissipating much like Wednesday night. Models
are redeveloping some nocturnal convection ahead of the trof in
the Plains to varying degrees, with the most bullish being the GFS
after midnight. The GFS cranks out .75 inch along and east of the
Mississippi river from St. Louis north. While I cannot totally
rule out overnight convection, the low level jet is pretty weak
and most of the isentropic lift will be well north of the area.
Have largely discounted the GFS for these reasons and only kept
slight chance/isolated PoPs overnight primarily for
northeast/northern zones.

Timing issues remain the primary problem for the approaching trof
Friday through Saturday.  Still thinking some scattered
thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon ahead of the trof;
but overall the models came in a bit faster with the eastward
progression.  Have sped up the introduction of likely PoPs Friday
night, and ended the likely PoPs sooner on Saturday.  Still holding
onto a chance/slight chance PoPs Saturday night as warm advection
aloft is forecast to begin again ahead of the next trof.  Seasonably
warm temperatures remain in the forecast through Saturday, though
highs will be very dependent on convection, especially on Saturday
afternoon.

Carney

.LONG TERM: (Sunday - Thursday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Sunday should be drier than Saturday as the area will be stuck
between trofs with weak ridging overhead.  Can`t rule out scattered
afternoon storms over the southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
The next trof in line is still forecast to move into the Midwest on
Monday.  There seems to be a little less agreement in the medium
range models on how far the south the associated cold front will
get.  Between the ECMWF and the GFS, the EC is further south with
the cold front, stalling it out near or just south of the I-70
corridor while the GFS keeps it further north near a line from St.
Joseph to Kirksville to Quincy.  Regardless, it looks like another
good chance for rain for parts of the area...primarily along and
north of the I-70 corridor Sunday night through Monday night or even
Tuesday.  The front will move back to the north Tuesday night and
Wednesday, but the GFS develops another round of convection Tuesday
night which pushes the effective front south into Arkansas
Wednesday.  This looks much less likely to me than the ECMWF
solution which simply pushes the front back to the north and allows
the heat to build back across the area.  Stuck pretty close to the
initial model blend for weather and temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday which keep highs in the mid to upper 80s, but this may be
too cool.  Will monitor trends and adjust over the next couple of
days as the models hopefully get a better handle on next week.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Main focus for the valid TAF period will be on convection. Diurnal
thunderstorms are likely to develop by mid afternoon with the best
chance of affecting the St. Louis metro terminals. Kept a VCTS for
now at KUIN...though beginning to have doubts about coverage of
storms that far north as instability is mainly confined to areas
to the south. Tonight should be mainly dry...as diurnal convection
weakens and dissipates by 0100-0300 UTC. Some models are
developing more showers and storms along and east of the
Mississippi River tonight but left mention out of TAFs for now due
to low confidence. During the day tomorrow looks like a better
chance for showers and storms to redevelop as a midlevel system
approaches form the west.

Specifics for KSTL:

Main focus for the valid TAF period will be on convection. Diurnal
thunderstorms are likely to develop by mid afternoon. Tonight
should be mainly dry...as diurnal convection weakens and
dissipates by 0100-0300 UTC. However...some models are initiating more
showers and storms along and east of the Mississippi River tonight
but left mention out of TAF for now due to low confidence. During
the day tomorrow looks like a better chance for showers and storms
to redevelop as a midlevel system approaches form the west so
added a VCTS mention for that possible activity.

Gosselin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     75  90  73  86 /  40  20  60  60
Quincy          72  86  69  84 /  40  40  60  40
Columbia        70  87  69  87 /  20  40  60  40
Jefferson City  71  88  70  87 /  20  40  60  40
Salem           73  88  72  84 /  40  20  50  60
Farmington      70  88  70  85 /  20  20  60  60

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 282038
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
338 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Pronounced thermal gradient across the CWA this afternoon as
long-impacting frontal boundary continues to lift north in advance
of large scale wave now dropping out of the central Rockies.
Regional radars showing a north-south oriented rain axis across
eastern Kansas this afternoon...with additional isolated activity
noted across north-central Missouri in closer proximity to
aforementioned warm front. This convection has led to a few stronger
cells just east of the EAX CWA which prompted the issuance of a few
severe thunderstorm warnings by our neighbors to the east. Closer to
our neck of the woods...cannot rule out an isolated stronger cell or
two along the boundary...but with large scale forcing for ascent
rather limited at this point...currently think chances are fairly
low. Reference SPC SWOMCD #1629 for more details.

Heading into tonight...main upper trough expected to slowly migrate
east across the central Plains...while the main warm front continues
lifting north. Fcst models again show developing convection during
the early morning hrs as another low-level jet of 30-35 kts develops
over the region. From this stand point...a slightly further eastward
position of main low-level wind max may favor a little more
organization that last night...but current thinking is best thata-e
convergence will likely be found just to our north in southern IA.
Despite this...models in good agreement that region will eventually
reside under the favorable right entrance region of an upper jet
streak located along the eastern periphery of approaching upper
wave...however true impacts from stronger divergence aloft may hold off
until around daybreak. In any event...increasing pressure advection
along the 1.5 PVU surface combined with modest isentropic ascent
along what appears to be a another weak theta-e gradient south of the
main front supports the highest pops across the western zones during
the predawn hrs. For now...have capped pops in the high chc category
across the far northwest with chc mention extending south along and
west of the I-35/Route 71 corridor.

Prospects for area-wide rainfall look to increase tomorrow as main
upper trough axis slides east over the area. Fcst models have been in
excellent agreement with this scenario hence the maintaining of likely
pops through much of the day. Storm movements will likely be
slow...but guidance is actually suggesting lower PWAT values as
the low-level moisture that has been pooled along the front slowly
lifts north of the area. Considering this...not overly concern with
flash flood potential tomorrow but later shifts will definately have
to monitor the latest model trends to ensure this reasoning remains
in tact. With clouds and rain in the area...have trended towards the
lower end of guidance with highs in lower to middle 80s.

As mentioned above...upper trough to be a very slow mover which will
likely keep the treat for showers and storms going through much of
the Fri ngt/early Sat period. Have maintained likely pops across the
eastern 2/3rds of the CWA with overnight lows largely falling into
the middle to upper 60s. Finally some relief with respect to rainfall
chances set to arrive on Saturday as main trough axis finally slides
east. Have advertised a gradual improving trend through the day with
highs rebounding into the lower to middle 80s.

Towards the end of the weekend...focus will quickly shift to a
northern stream trough tracking east along the U.S./Canadian border.
As this feature ejects east from the northern Rockies...sfc low
pressure is expected to lift northeast from the northern Plains into
the Canadian Prairie provinces. As this occurs...reestablished southerly
flow will force a weak warm front north across our region. This
combined with secondary shortwave energy along the southern periphery
of the main northern U.S. storm system should allow for redeveloping
shwrs/storms Sunday afternoon through Monday.

Beyond this...fcst models begin to show some disagreement as main
synoptic scale front stalls somewhere in the vicinity. With
subtropical ridging expected to flatten thanks to the passing
northern stream system referenced above...very conceivable that the
stalled front will take up residence very close to our area. For
now...the ECMWF and Canadian-CMC show the farthest southward
position...while the GFS is further north and wetter. In any
event...have kept things dry beyond Wednesday as fairly strong sfc high
pressure building into the upper Miss Rvr Vly/western Great Lakes by
midweek should keep the main frontal feature to our south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR conditions expected through the fcst period. Shwrs west of area
terminals out of the gate this afternoon should pose minimal impacts
as we progress through the afternoon. Overnight...shwrs/storms likely
to increase in coverage to the west before gradually spreading east
during the predawn hrs. As always...overall confidence remains
marginal but have offered a VCTS mention at all locations from
roughly 10/11z onward. South winds between 5-10 kts through the
period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32






000
FXUS63 KEAX 282038
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
338 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Pronounced thermal gradient across the CWA this afternoon as
long-impacting frontal boundary continues to lift north in advance
of large scale wave now dropping out of the central Rockies.
Regional radars showing a north-south oriented rain axis across
eastern Kansas this afternoon...with additional isolated activity
noted across north-central Missouri in closer proximity to
aforementioned warm front. This convection has led to a few stronger
cells just east of the EAX CWA which prompted the issuance of a few
severe thunderstorm warnings by our neighbors to the east. Closer to
our neck of the woods...cannot rule out an isolated stronger cell or
two along the boundary...but with large scale forcing for ascent
rather limited at this point...currently think chances are fairly
low. Reference SPC SWOMCD #1629 for more details.

Heading into tonight...main upper trough expected to slowly migrate
east across the central Plains...while the main warm front continues
lifting north. Fcst models again show developing convection during
the early morning hrs as another low-level jet of 30-35 kts develops
over the region. From this stand point...a slightly further eastward
position of main low-level wind max may favor a little more
organization that last night...but current thinking is best thata-e
convergence will likely be found just to our north in southern IA.
Despite this...models in good agreement that region will eventually
reside under the favorable right entrance region of an upper jet
streak located along the eastern periphery of approaching upper
wave...however true impacts from stronger divergence aloft may hold off
until around daybreak. In any event...increasing pressure advection
along the 1.5 PVU surface combined with modest isentropic ascent
along what appears to be a another weak theta-e gradient south of the
main front supports the highest pops across the western zones during
the predawn hrs. For now...have capped pops in the high chc category
across the far northwest with chc mention extending south along and
west of the I-35/Route 71 corridor.

Prospects for area-wide rainfall look to increase tomorrow as main
upper trough axis slides east over the area. Fcst models have been in
excellent agreement with this scenario hence the maintaining of likely
pops through much of the day. Storm movements will likely be
slow...but guidance is actually suggesting lower PWAT values as
the low-level moisture that has been pooled along the front slowly
lifts north of the area. Considering this...not overly concern with
flash flood potential tomorrow but later shifts will definately have
to monitor the latest model trends to ensure this reasoning remains
in tact. With clouds and rain in the area...have trended towards the
lower end of guidance with highs in lower to middle 80s.

As mentioned above...upper trough to be a very slow mover which will
likely keep the treat for showers and storms going through much of
the Fri ngt/early Sat period. Have maintained likely pops across the
eastern 2/3rds of the CWA with overnight lows largely falling into
the middle to upper 60s. Finally some relief with respect to rainfall
chances set to arrive on Saturday as main trough axis finally slides
east. Have advertised a gradual improving trend through the day with
highs rebounding into the lower to middle 80s.

Towards the end of the weekend...focus will quickly shift to a
northern stream trough tracking east along the U.S./Canadian border.
As this feature ejects east from the northern Rockies...sfc low
pressure is expected to lift northeast from the northern Plains into
the Canadian Prairie provinces. As this occurs...reestablished southerly
flow will force a weak warm front north across our region. This
combined with secondary shortwave energy along the southern periphery
of the main northern U.S. storm system should allow for redeveloping
shwrs/storms Sunday afternoon through Monday.

Beyond this...fcst models begin to show some disagreement as main
synoptic scale front stalls somewhere in the vicinity. With
subtropical ridging expected to flatten thanks to the passing
northern stream system referenced above...very conceivable that the
stalled front will take up residence very close to our area. For
now...the ECMWF and Canadian-CMC show the farthest southward
position...while the GFS is further north and wetter. In any
event...have kept things dry beyond Wednesday as fairly strong sfc high
pressure building into the upper Miss Rvr Vly/western Great Lakes by
midweek should keep the main frontal feature to our south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR conditions expected through the fcst period. Shwrs west of area
terminals out of the gate this afternoon should pose minimal impacts
as we progress through the afternoon. Overnight...shwrs/storms likely
to increase in coverage to the west before gradually spreading east
during the predawn hrs. As always...overall confidence remains
marginal but have offered a VCTS mention at all locations from
roughly 10/11z onward. South winds between 5-10 kts through the
period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KSGF 282003
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
303 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

Animated water vapor indicated a clockwise circulation directly
over southern Missouri this afternoon. This summertime high center
was suppressing updrafts so far, and will likely continue to do so
through the rest of the evening. Therefore we`d be surprised to
see any showers or thunderstorms develop today. The Ozarks airmass
is also quite a bit drier than yesterday, with PWATS falling to
around 1.3 inches, which is not ideal for pulse thunderstorms.

The good news is that storms and rainfall are on the way for
Friday into Saturday. A storm system, currently located over
Colorado, will approach the Ozarks region tomorrow morning.

Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this feature and
gradually translate eastward with time.

We think there could be a limited risk for some strong to severe
storms Friday afternoon for areas along and east of Highway 65.

The HiRes ARW and NMM suggested deeper convection to develop
around 18-21Z. While deep layer shear is only progged to be around
15-25 knots, there could be enough instability in this region for
some stronger updrafts. As of now, we`re going to insert a limited
risk into the Hazardous Weather Outlook, thinking the risk is very
marginal at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

As the upper wave slowly moves across southern Missouri, several
models suggest scattered convection to continue into Friday night
and Saturday. We don`t think this is going to be a washout, with
convection being more scattered in nature. Therefore we have
decent precipitation probabilities going from Friday night through
Saturday.

We begin to lower precipitation chances Saturday night through
Sunday as the wave dampens out, and upper flow becomes more
zonal through the rest of the holiday weekend. With that said, we
couldn`t take precipitation chances out completely, since the
Ozarks airmass will remain moist and unstable, and any minor
shortwave would have a shot at triggering showers or storms
somewhere.

With all the outdoor activities occurring across the Ozarks this
weekend, we recommend keeping abreast of the weather situation.
The primary risk would be associated with cloud to ground
lightning near any thunderstorms.

Heading into early next week, the summertime high rebuilds across
the Arklatex, positioning southern Missouri in the northern
periphery of the high. This will be a good location for
thunderstorm development from a large scale standpoint. We`ll get
a better feel for exactly when and where those will occur as we get
closer in time.

Have a fantastic and safe Labor Day Weekend !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 101 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected for much
of the taf period. A sfc front and upper level disturbance will approach
the region from the west late in the taf period with increasing
chances for showers/thunderstorms.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KSGF 282003
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
303 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

Animated water vapor indicated a clockwise circulation directly
over southern Missouri this afternoon. This summertime high center
was suppressing updrafts so far, and will likely continue to do so
through the rest of the evening. Therefore we`d be surprised to
see any showers or thunderstorms develop today. The Ozarks airmass
is also quite a bit drier than yesterday, with PWATS falling to
around 1.3 inches, which is not ideal for pulse thunderstorms.

The good news is that storms and rainfall are on the way for
Friday into Saturday. A storm system, currently located over
Colorado, will approach the Ozarks region tomorrow morning.

Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this feature and
gradually translate eastward with time.

We think there could be a limited risk for some strong to severe
storms Friday afternoon for areas along and east of Highway 65.

The HiRes ARW and NMM suggested deeper convection to develop
around 18-21Z. While deep layer shear is only progged to be around
15-25 knots, there could be enough instability in this region for
some stronger updrafts. As of now, we`re going to insert a limited
risk into the Hazardous Weather Outlook, thinking the risk is very
marginal at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

As the upper wave slowly moves across southern Missouri, several
models suggest scattered convection to continue into Friday night
and Saturday. We don`t think this is going to be a washout, with
convection being more scattered in nature. Therefore we have
decent precipitation probabilities going from Friday night through
Saturday.

We begin to lower precipitation chances Saturday night through
Sunday as the wave dampens out, and upper flow becomes more
zonal through the rest of the holiday weekend. With that said, we
couldn`t take precipitation chances out completely, since the
Ozarks airmass will remain moist and unstable, and any minor
shortwave would have a shot at triggering showers or storms
somewhere.

With all the outdoor activities occurring across the Ozarks this
weekend, we recommend keeping abreast of the weather situation.
The primary risk would be associated with cloud to ground
lightning near any thunderstorms.

Heading into early next week, the summertime high rebuilds across
the Arklatex, positioning southern Missouri in the northern
periphery of the high. This will be a good location for
thunderstorm development from a large scale standpoint. We`ll get
a better feel for exactly when and where those will occur as we get
closer in time.

Have a fantastic and safe Labor Day Weekend !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 101 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected for much
of the taf period. A sfc front and upper level disturbance will approach
the region from the west late in the taf period with increasing
chances for showers/thunderstorms.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 281811
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
111 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 254 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Water vapor this morning is showing a nice swirl in the atmosphere
over the Rockies this morning associated with an upper level low
which will slowly move out across the Central Plains and the
Midwest over the next couple of days.

There should be less convection today mainly because of slightly
drier air being forecasted in the upper air soundings. PW values
from the evening weather balloon were close to 2 inches but should
drop today as the main moisture axis will be just to our north and
west. Will hold on to isolated convection chances this afternoon mainly
across the eastern Missouri Ozarks and central Missouri. Highs
will be just a couple degrees cooler than the previous day as the
upper level ridge is weakening over the area.

Convection will develop late tonight across portions of Kansas
just to our west. This convection will move in our direction by
early tomorrow morning mainly affecting areas across southeast
Kansas and maybe extreme western Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

PW values will increase on Friday and Friday night as the upper
level system moves across the central portion of the country and
pulls in a little bit of a tropical connection from the Pacific
and the western Gulf of Mexico. Widespread convection will develop
across the entire area Friday afternoon and Friday night. Some of
this convection will be efficient rain producers and much needed
rainfall coming to the Ozarks. QPF will be generally average
around an inch to an inch and a half for the entire area.

The system will exit the Midwest region on Saturday and the
majority of the rain chances will slowly transition from west to
east during the day on Saturday lingering across the eastern
Ozarks through Saturday afternoon. Anyone outdoors this weekend
will need to monitor thunderstorms and be mindful of lightning
dangers. Severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

Isolated to widely scattered convection will again be possible
Sunday with better chances south and east of I-44. Rain chances
will go up for Labor Day or Monday afternoon and Monday night as a
front will move into the region and interact with another
shortwave moving across the Midwest. The front will linger across
the area through Wednesday and continue to bring chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be seasonable if not
a few degrees below average because of clouds and rain in the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 101 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected for much
of the taf period. A sfc front and upper level disturbance will approach
the region from the west late in the taf period with increasing
chances for showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 281811
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
111 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 254 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Water vapor this morning is showing a nice swirl in the atmosphere
over the Rockies this morning associated with an upper level low
which will slowly move out across the Central Plains and the
Midwest over the next couple of days.

There should be less convection today mainly because of slightly
drier air being forecasted in the upper air soundings. PW values
from the evening weather balloon were close to 2 inches but should
drop today as the main moisture axis will be just to our north and
west. Will hold on to isolated convection chances this afternoon mainly
across the eastern Missouri Ozarks and central Missouri. Highs
will be just a couple degrees cooler than the previous day as the
upper level ridge is weakening over the area.

Convection will develop late tonight across portions of Kansas
just to our west. This convection will move in our direction by
early tomorrow morning mainly affecting areas across southeast
Kansas and maybe extreme western Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

PW values will increase on Friday and Friday night as the upper
level system moves across the central portion of the country and
pulls in a little bit of a tropical connection from the Pacific
and the western Gulf of Mexico. Widespread convection will develop
across the entire area Friday afternoon and Friday night. Some of
this convection will be efficient rain producers and much needed
rainfall coming to the Ozarks. QPF will be generally average
around an inch to an inch and a half for the entire area.

The system will exit the Midwest region on Saturday and the
majority of the rain chances will slowly transition from west to
east during the day on Saturday lingering across the eastern
Ozarks through Saturday afternoon. Anyone outdoors this weekend
will need to monitor thunderstorms and be mindful of lightning
dangers. Severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

Isolated to widely scattered convection will again be possible
Sunday with better chances south and east of I-44. Rain chances
will go up for Labor Day or Monday afternoon and Monday night as a
front will move into the region and interact with another
shortwave moving across the Midwest. The front will linger across
the area through Wednesday and continue to bring chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be seasonable if not
a few degrees below average because of clouds and rain in the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 101 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected for much
of the taf period. A sfc front and upper level disturbance will approach
the region from the west late in the taf period with increasing
chances for showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KLSX 281741
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1241 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Have made some minor adjustments to going forecast into this
afternoon...mainly delaying the onset of PoPs across northeastern
Missouri and west-central Illinois. Beginning to have some doubts
as to what coverage of storms up that way may actually be...as
instability per latest SPC mesoanalysis is mainly to the south.
Will hold off and maintain mid chance PoPs up across the far north
for now but may need to lower later today. Further to the
south...scattered diurnal thunderstorms beginning mid-afternoon
looks on track as diurnal cu is already forming across
southeastern Missouri.

Gosselin

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Nocturnal convection has remained well northwest of forecast area
with just a few very small showers popping up over northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois early this morning. For today,
will see a lot of sunshine initially but diurnal cu to pop by mid
to late morning most locations. So depending on how much cloud
cover forms and timing of when storms will develop will affect how
warm temperatures get. For now have highs in the mid 80s far north
to the upper 80s to low 90s elsewhere. Will still see dewpts in
the low to mid 70s so another very humid day. Heat indices could
get close to 100 in the metro area this afternoon but not warrant
any headlines. Just like yesterday, expect widely scattered
thunderstorms to develop along weak boundary that remains draped
across region.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Tonight activity to slowly dissipate then refocus back to the
northwest along main frontal boundary. Lows tonight will be in the
low 70s. On Friday, upper level shortwave/trof to begin to lift
northeast out of central plains and into forecast area.
Precipitation chances to be on the increase with the best chances
Friday night and Saturday. Kept likely pops going through this
period. Highs on Friday will be a bit lower, in the upper 80s and
lows Friday night will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. As system
slides through on Saturday, the combination of clouds and storms
will keep highs in the low 80s far north to the upper 80s south.

Frontal boundary to stall out just southeast of forecast area
Saturday night through Sunday, could see a bit of a break in
activity with just isolated/scattered storms through this period.
Then an even stronger trof will slide east through region Sunday
night and Monday with increasing chances of storms once again. This
boundary to stall out just south of us as well, so kept mention of
storms possible through the rest of the forecast period. Highs will
be in the 80s through the middle of next week.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Main focus for the valid TAF period will be on convection. Diurnal
thunderstorms are likely to develop by mid afternoon with the best
chance of affecting the St. Louis metro terminals. Kept a VCTS for
now at KUIN...though beginning to have doubts about coverage of
storms that far north as instability is mainly confined to areas
to the south. Tonight should be mainly dry...as diurnal convection
weakens and dissipates by 0100-0300 UTC. Some models are
developing more showers and storms along and east of the
Mississippi River tonight but left mention out of TAFs for now due
to low confidence. During the day tomorrow looks like a better
chance for showers and storms to redevelop as a midlevel system
approaches form the west.

Specifics for KSTL:

Main focus for the valid TAF period will be on convection. Diurnal
thunderstorms are likely to develop by mid afternoon. Tonight
should be mainly dry...as diurnal convection weakens and
dissipates by 0100-0300 UTC. However...some models are initiating more
showers and storms along and east of the Mississippi River tonight
but left mention out of TAF for now due to low confidence. During
the day tomorrow looks like a better chance for showers and storms
to redevelop as a midlevel system approaches form the west so
added a VCTS mention for that possible activity.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 281736
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1236 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Another active overnight period as a large MCS has developed
across SWRN IA/ERN NE/extreme NW MO/and into NRN KS. This developed
as a 30-40KT SWLY LLJ developed and overrode a stationary front
extending from Manhattan, KS to Clinton, MO to Farmington, MO.
These storms will continue to move NEWD during the morning hours and
as such continued showers and thunderstorms will be likely across
northwestern Missouri on the eastern periphery of the MCS. The good
news is the better moisture is pooling to the north and west and it
appears northwestern Missouri, which is under a flood watch, will
not receive an extended period of heavy rain. A surface low has
develop across swrn NE and this low will move NEWD during the course
of the day. This will pull the stationary front laid out across our
CWA northward today as a warm front. This warm front is expected to
lift near the Highway 36 corridor by this afternoon. The best
chances for storms will be along and north of this front during the
afternoon hours. Although cloud cover for today and its affects on
temperatures will be challenging, with the warm front lifting north,
temperatures should warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s south of
highway 36 and to the low to mid 80s north.

This morning an upper level trough is evident on water vapor imagery
moving into the eastern Rockies. This trough will move out into the
western Plains today forcing a cold front across the Plains through
the day today. This cold front will move into eastern Kansas by late
tonight. Thunderstorms will develop across Kansas this
afternoon/evening ahead of the front. These storms will move east
tonight and bring showers and thunderstorms to the western CWA.
Friday and Friday night will be the wettest period in the short term
as the upper level trough moves into the eastern Plains and forces
the slow moving cold front through the area. Any severe potential
will hinge on whether or not we can destabilize during the afternoon
hours. However, early morning convection and residual cloud cover
may keep conditions stable. If we do manage to destabilize Friday
afternoon/evening, the main threats would be wind and small hail.

Models continue to be more progressive and weaker with the upper
level trough, moving through the forecast area earlier in the day on
Saturday. Have chance POPs across the eastern CWA for Saturday
morning but storms should exit the CWA for the afternoon. Highs
Saturday behind the cold front will be in the low to mid 80s.

Models are in general agreement in the extended period with the
exception of Sunday. The GFS is depicting another weak shortwave
moving through the area quickly behind the upper level trough. This
shortwave would bring another round of scattered showers and
thunderstorms. The EC and GEM do not show this feature and keep
Sunday dry. Have keep slight chance POPs across the area t account
for the GFS solution although the EC/GEM is preferred.

Models are in fairly good agreement beyond Sunday. The EC/GEM/and
GFS all show a strong upper level trough moving into the northern
and central Plains by Sunday night forcing a cold front into the
area. All these models develop thunderstorms over the area Sunday
night and into Monday. With model agreement high have left the high
chance and likely POPs in the forecast for this time period. Models
then weaken this trough as it move northeastward into the Upper
Midwest Monday night. With the main upper level support well north
the cold front that moves into the area Sunday night and Monday will
stall across/or just south of the forecast area. this will continue
storms chances into Monday night and Tuesday with the best chances
of storms across the southern CWA. Models then depict a weak upper
level shortwave moving into the area Tuesday night providing another
round of thunderstorms before finally kicking the stalled front
south of the area by Wednesday. Temperatures in the extended period
will be seasonable with highs mainly in the ow to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR conditions expected through the fcst period. Shwrs west of area
terminals out of the gate this afternoon should pose minimal impacts
as we progress through the afternoon. Overnight...shwrs/storms likely
to increase in coverage to the west before gradually spreading east
during the predawn hrs. As always...overall confidence remains
marginal but have offered a VCTS mention at all locations from
roughly 10/11z onward. South winds between 5-10 kts through the
period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...32







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities