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000
FXUS63 KSGF 271106
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
606 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Another active overnight across the Plains. A north south line of
convection extends across eastern Kansas, while another area is
located from northern Arkansas into the eastern Missouri Ozarks.
Short term models show a couple of branches of the low level
jet/moisture transport feeding into these storms and this low
level jet has nosed into the forecast area but is expected to diminish
by mid morning. Thus expect convection to maintain itself through
much of the morning over the eastern Ozarks and perhaps into
the early afternoon hours. Shear is rather weak and based on
latest radar trends expect storms to be non severe, although some
locally heavy rain will be possible.

500mb low currently over eastern Colorado will move into western
Kansas later today and into Nebraska tonight. Meanwhile main surface
boundary will remain well west of the area over Kansas and Oklahoma.
Both the NAM and GFS shows low level jet/moisture transport
increasing once again ahead of the wave from eastern
Oklahoma/western Arkansas later this afternoon and evening nosing
into the Missouri Ozarks which will sustain more convection. Given
amount of convection expected this morning question will be how
much instability can be generated. Per SPC day1 outlook, area is
in a marginal risk with the main threat being large hail and
damaging winds.

Another area of convection will develop over Kansas near the
boundary this afternoon and move east, possibly developing into an
MCS affecting the forecast area overnight. Although deep layer shear
looks to be marginal severe weather will still be possible
if the storms do indeed congeal into an MCS, with large hail and
damaging winds the main threats. If line segments can form 0-3KM
shear vectors would favor an isolated tornado threat with any
eastward surges of the line segments, especially in the far
western areas.

Precipitable water values remain around 1.50 inches, so locally
heavy rainfall will be possible with any of the storms and could
result in some localized flooding.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

As the main upper low moves into the upper Mississippi River Valley
region Saturday a secondary trough rotates through across the area
pushing a weak surface boundary into the Ozarks. This boundary will
then be the focus for additional thunderstorm development.
Question will be how much instability can build back after the
Friday night/ Saturday morning convection. If atmosphere has
enough time to recover will likely see a severe weather threat of
large hail and damaging winds once again.

Flow becomes more zonal later Saturday night and Sunday with weak
surface ridging building in. Low level flow remains southerly so a
moist and unstable airmass will remain in place, but no
discernible triggers for convection so will go with lower
probabilities.

By early next week flow once again becomes more southwesterly as
another trough deepens across the desert southwest, while a
closed low forms over the northern Rockies and pushes eastward
through the northern Plains through mid week. models prog a series
of shortwaves to lift through the southwest flow bringing periods
showers and thunderstorms to the area through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Precipitation from overnight convection has just about exited the
CWA to the east. Still have a frontal boundary over western CWA.
Short term and near term models want to bring convection into the
area from the southwest later this morning. Looking at regional
radar, not really buying into this scenario at the moment. Will
start to bring in vicinity shra/tsra during the afternoon as the
instability increases, but for now will leave the morning
precipitation chances out. Will mostly have VFR conditions today,
with MVFR/IFR potential within any convection that moves across
the terminal locations.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Lindenberg




000
FXUS63 KSGF 270805
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
305 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Another active overnight across the Plains. A north south line of
convection extends across eastern Kansas, while another area is
located from northern Arkansas into the eastern Missouri Ozarks.
Short term models show a couple of branches of the low level
jet/moisture transport feeding into these storms and this low
level jet has nosed into the forecast area but is expected to diminish
by mid morning. Thus expect convection to maintain itself through
much of the morning over the eastern Ozarks and perhaps into
the early afternoon hours. Shear is rather weak and based on
latest radar trends expect storms to be non severe, although some
locally heavy rain will be possible.

500mb low currently over eastern Colorado will move into western
Kansas later today and into Nebraska tonight. Meanwhile main surface
boundary will remain well west of the area over Kansas and Oklahoma.
Both the NAM and GFS shows low level jet/moisture transport
increasing once again ahead of the wave from eastern
Oklahoma/western Arkansas later this afternoon and evening nosing
into the Missouri Ozarks which will sustain more convection. Given
amount of convection expected this morning question will be how
much instability can be generated. Per SPC day1 outlook, area is
in a marginal risk with the main threat being large hail and
damaging winds.

Another area of convection will develop over Kansas near the
boundary this afternoon and move east, possibly developing into an
MCS affecting the forecast area overnight. Although deep layer shear
looks to be marginal severe weather will still be possible
if the storms do indeed congeal into an MCS, with large hail and
damaging winds the main threats. If line segments can form 0-3KM
shear vectors would favor an isolated tornado threat with any
eastward surges of the line segments, especially in the far
western areas.

Precipitable water values remain around 1.50 inches, so locally
heavy rainfall will be possible with any of the storms and could
result in some localized flooding.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

As the main upper low moves into the upper Mississippi River Valley
region Saturday a secondary trough rotates through across the area
pushing a weak surface boundary into the Ozarks. This boundary will
then be the focus for additional thunderstorm development.
Question will be how much instability can build back after the
Friday night/ Saturday morning convection. If atmosphere has
enough time to recover will likely see a severe weather threat of
large hail and damaging winds once again.

Flow becomes more zonal later Saturday night and Sunday with weak
surface ridging building in. Low level flow remains southerly so a
moist and unstable airmass will remain in place, but no
discernible triggers for convection so will go with lower
probabilities.

By early next week flow once again becomes more southwesterly as
another trough deepens across the desert southwest, while a
closed low forms over the northern Rockies and pushes eastward
through the northern Plains through mid week. models prog a series
of shortwaves to lift through the southwest flow bringing periods
showers and thunderstorms to the area through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Convection has lifted north of the area in the near term.
Generally seeing vfr ceilings. Some hint in the guidance at mvfr
ceilings toward 12z for a brief period. Additional convection
will be possible toward and after12z from storms moving east and
northeast out of the Plains.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...DSA



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000
FXUS63 KLSX 262339
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
639 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Convection from morning MCS has finally shifted southeast of our
forecast area this afternoon. Convection was currently developing
across northwest MO and this activity may eventually shift east
into northeast MO this evening. New development is also expected
across southwest MO along a weak warm front and also along an
outflow boundary left over from the morning convective complex.
These storms should move northeastward into central MO this
evening. Activity may congeal into an MCS later this evening and
overnight and impact much of the forecast area, eventually moving
into our IL counties late tonight. Some of the storms this evening
may be severe, especially across northeast and central MO where
the better instability and shear exists.

GKS

.LONG TERM...  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

A better potential for widespread showers/storms is expected on
Friday and Friday night as the upper level trough now over the
southwest US approaches our area. Will go with likely to
catagorical pops. The high temperatures will be cooler on Friday
due to the cloud cover and widespread and potentially long lasting
precipitation. At least scattered showers/storms should occur on
Saturday and Saturday evening until the upper level trough shifts
northeast of our area. Quieter and drier weather is expected by
Sunday as a weak surface trough moves southeastward through the
forecast area with only slight chance pops over the southern and
eastern portion of the forecast area. Precipitation chances should
increase again by Tuesday as an upper level trough moves eastward
through the northern Plains sending a cold front southeastward
through our area. The ECMWF model is quicker than the GFS with the
progression of the upper level trough and associated cold front.
Potentially cooler and less humid conditions can be expected by
the end of the extended forecast period after the passage of the
cold front.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Cluster of thunderstorms is slowly heading northward toward KCOU
so added a TEMPO group to account for this activity. Believe KUIN
and metro terminals should continue to stay dry through the
evening with chances of showers and thunderstorms increasing
overnight tonight. Still hard to pin down best chances of activity
at these terminals so did not deviate too much from previous
forecast. Chances of showers and storms should continue through
the day on Friday as main upper-level shortwave finally ejects out
of the desert southwest. MVFR visibilities and ceilings possible
in thunderstorms with IFR visibilities possible in heavier
activity. Surface pressure gradient will also tighten across
eastern Missouri so added some wind gusts to the metro terminals.


Specifics for KSTL:

Still lots of uncertainty on how convection will evolve tonight.
Will have to watch areas to the south/southwest and see how
convection develops tonight but current expectation is for chances
to increase toward midnight tonight. Probably will be at least one period
of showers/storms with visibility impacts with chances of storms
through Friday evening. Wind speeds will also increase as pressure
gradient tightens so added some wind gusts for Friday afternoon of
around 25 knots.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KSGF 262037
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
337 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

A break in the convection is occurring across extreme southeastern
Kansas and southwestern Missouri early this afternoon. The
convection that tracked across portions of the Missouri Ozarks
this morning has spread to the east and is slowly tracking across
southeastern Kansas. Additional storms have developed across
central Kansas into northwestern Missouri this afternoon along
with storms developing across eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas.

The upper level low remains across the southwestern U.S. and will
slowly lift into the plains on Friday. As a result the active
weather pattern continues as the storms develop across the
region.

This afternoon a very unstable air mass has developed across the
area as temperatures have warmed into the middle 80s with dew
points in the lower 70s. MLCAPE values of 3000 to 4000 J/kg have
developed across the area. Deep layer shear is not as strong
though with values around 20kt. Theta-E Difference are also on the
high side with values of 30 to 40 Kelvin.

The storms across Arkansas will continue to lift north this
afternoon with convection developing from south to north across
the area. Given the amount of instability in place an elevated
severe risk will occur across the entire area. Deep layer shear is
not overly strong, but still the 20kt of 0-6km bulk shear values
combined with the very unstable air mass will result in the
potential for storms capable of hail up to the size of golf
balls. Also, the high theta-E difference will lead to a damaging
wind risk with wind gusts over 60 mph. Low level shear is on the
weak side which will limit the tornado risk.

We will also have to watch the convection across Kansas as it may
try to develop into a MCS and could track into the area overnight.
Damaging winds and hail up to quarters will be possible with a few
of the stronger storms.

Storms will continue to be possible on Friday as a wave tracks
through the area ahead of the main upper level low. The
convection will limit temperatures and instability with highs in
the middle 70s. Deep layer shear will increase some on Friday, but
instability being weaker will limit a widespread severe weather
risk. Still a few strong to marginally severe storms will be
possible.

Give the multiple rounds of storms and high perceptible water
values, locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be
possible this evening into Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

The main upper level low will remain west of the area on Friday
and additional storms are expected to develop across western
Kansas ahead of the main low. These storms should develop into a
complex of storms and track east towards and through the area
Friday night into early Saturday morning. 0-3km bulk shear values
will be 30kt from west to east which will support a line moving
into the area. This would support a damaging wind risk and the
potential for meso vortices developing with any surges in the line
to the east. The question is just exactly where this MCS develops
and then tracks which will determine which locations are impacted
or not.

Saturday should clear out after the morning convection and should
see the atmosphere recover and more instability should develop.
The upper level wave will be lifting through the area and deep
layer shear will increase. A boundary will push east through the
area and expect storms to develop along the boundary, and could be
in the form of supercells. Large hail to golf balls will be the
main risk along with a damaging wind risk. Low level shear appears
to remain on the low side which will limit the tornado risk. Most
of Saturday will be dry until scattered storms develop later in
the afternoon to the early evening hours.

The upper level low will spread east of the area on Sunday but the
boundary will stall near the Arkansas boundary and a few storms
will be possible during the afternoon and early evening hours both
Sunday and Monday afternoons, but both days will have extended dry
periods and will not be washouts by any means.

Another upper level low will move on the west coast and slowly
spread east through next week. As a result the active weather
pattern will continue next week with several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms expected. There will be dry periods between rounds
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Expect mainly MVFR to VFR conditions this afternoon with scattered
storms developing toward late afternoon and evening. Better
chances for more widespread rain and storms will occur late
evening into overnight hours however confidence is still low on
the placement of storms. Winds will generally be out of the south
and gusty this afternoon.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Burchfield



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000
FXUS63 KEAX 262027
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
327 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 327 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

Short Term (Today through Saturday night):

Severe weather will be likely this evening into tonight with all
modes of severe weather possible. Storms that have fired this morning
in a uncapped environment of strong instability between 2000-4000
J/Kg of MUCAPE have continued to fire along subsequent outflow
boundaries and consequently severe storms have persist into the
afternoon. 0-1km shear has been weak however, 0-6km remains strong
between 40-50kts. This strong 0-6km shear is expected to continue
into this evening/tonight as is the aforementioned strong
instability. A warm front analyzed extending from a surface low out
across swrn Kansas extends to near the KS/NE border and into the KC
Metro. This is allowing winds to be backed at the surface and despite
weak low- level shear may still be sufficient to allow tornadoes to
develop. As the event unfolds, supercellular storms from this
afternoon are expected to congeal into a linear mode with winds being
the main threat however with surface winds remaining backed,
tornadoes along the line may still be possible. Also, of concern is
the potential for flash flooding as PWAT values of of 1.75"-2.25"
exist across eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Models hint that
storms may become anchored on the surface warming front with training
of storms possible. Couple the high PWATs, with previous rainfall
over the past few days and the potential for training...flash
flooding is a threat. Consequently a flash flood watch has been
issued through 18Z tomorrow. Storms are expected to weaken after
midnight be still persist into tomorrow morning. Storms and cloud
cover that persist into the morning hours tomorrow should help to
limit instability tomorrow. Although scattered thunderstorms are
possible throughout the day tomorrow stronger storm are not likely
until later in the evening. This will occur as the upper level trough
moves into western Plains and fires storms along a cold front/dryline
across western Kansas. These storms will progress eastward and move
into the western CWA in a weakened form tomorrow night. On Saturday,
the upper level trough moves into the eastern Plains and weakens but
forces a cold front through the CWA. A few storms could be strong if
conditions could destabilize in the afternoon/evening otherwise
storms will remain sub-severe.

Extended Term: (Sunday through Thursday):

Sunday the upper level trough will swing through the Midwest
however, the cold front will have pushes east of the area and most
of the day should remain dry. However, dry conditions will be short-
lived. As we get into Sunday, the synoptic set-up become very
similar to the one we experienced early this week with a upper
trough over the southwestern CONUS and the local area under
southwesterly flow aloft. A shortwave is expected to eject out from
the southwestern trough and move into the region late Sunday/Sunday
night sparking another round of convection. Conditions will remain
unsettled as we move into next week as several shortwaves eject out
from the slow moving southwestern trough, continuing thunderstorm
chances.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

Thunderstorms will affect the terminals thru most of the first 12
hours of the TAF pd. There may be a brief window btn 18Z-20Z where
storms will shift north and east of the TAF site however expect
storms to build back into the terminals around 20Z with a window of
strong storms possible btn 22Z-02Z when mod-hvy tsra will be possible
reducing vsbys to 1SM-3SM and produce wind gusts in excess of 35kts.
Thunderstorms may linger into the overnight before pushing east of
the terminals durg the morning hours. However...models are consistentwith
Low MVFR/IFR cigs building into the terminals tomorrow morning.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for MOZ001>004-
     011>013-020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...73




000
FXUS63 KEAX 261739
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1239 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 349 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

Tricky forecast over the next 36-48 hours as a shortwave trough
ejects out of the desert Southwest and pushes surface low pressure
from the lee side of the Rockies out into western KS. The primary
focus for convective initiation later today, at least from a
synoptic perspective, will be the dryline stretching from west
central KS through the TX panhandle, and the warm front extending
northeastward from southwest KS through the central Plains. However,
there are many caveats to this synoptic perspective as overnight
convection sets up several possible outflow boundaries in and around
the CWA, and any additional convection that develops and moves
into the region early this morning could also have an impact on
today`s storms. High-resolution models are definitely struggling to
resolve the severe potential, with the HRRR developing a cell on the
edge of the LLJ near sunrise in south central NE, expanding the storm
with time, and using its outflow to effectively push the warm front
into our CWA from its forecast afternoon position in southeast NE
through central IA, which then serves as a focus for what can only be
described as convective explosion by mid-afternoon. While that
scenario seems a bit unlikely, the warm front is currently fairly far
south across central KS, and if it does not lift north with time as
is currently forecast, that could result in another scenario with a
result similar to the HRRR forecast. What is known is that plentiful
CAPE and adequate deep-layer shear will be available this afternoon,
setting the stage for severe potential whenever storms do develop or
arrive in the CWA. Based on the large-scale perspective the highest
chances for strong to severe storms should be late this evening into
the night, but with that much instability and a possibility of some
convergence from lingering outflow boundaries, and an unknown
progression of the synoptic warm front, a few storms are at least
possible from late morning onward.

Friday`s severe potential will be highly dependent on how much
convection is ongoing Friday morning, and whether or not any
clearing occurs during the afternoon. Shear is actually its highest
over our CWA on Friday evening as the upper trough shifts eastward,
however instability may be more limited and showers and storms may
be ongoing through much of the day with strong upper-level support
for convection melding into the period when isentropic lift/LLJ
support tends to diurnally wane; thus, it may not be possible to
develop robust updrafts later in the day. Storms are still expected
to develop out to our west along the dryline where instability will
be higher, so if we can clear out long enough to build a bit more
supportive lapse rates, these storms could still be strong to severe
when/if they arrive in the CWA later Friday evening or Friday night.

Storm chances decrease for the weekend, and while PoPs are non-zero
due to available moisture, continued southerly flow, and at least
some instability, the overall forcing will decrease late Friday
night and especially Saturday and Sunday as the upper trough departs
and the dryline retreats back to the west, becoming more diffuse and
likely not sparking daily strong/severe convection is it has been
over the last several days. High temperatures will gradually warm
from the upper 70s on Friday to the mid 80s by Sunday, and lows will
continue at above normal readings in the mid to upper 60s. A return
to the active pattern then begins Monday night as another trough
digs into the western CONUS, and should continue through the end of
the forecast period until the trough ejects out.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

Thunderstorms will affect the terminals thru most of the first 12
hours of the TAF pd. There may be a brief window btn 18Z-20Z where
storms will shift north and east of the TAF site however expect
storms to build back into the terminals around 20Z with a window of
strong storms possible btn 22Z-02Z when mod-hvy tsra will be possible
reducing vsbys to 1SM-3SM and produce wind gusts in excess of 35kts.
Thunderstorms may linger into the overnight before pushing east of
the terminals durg the morning hours. However...models are consistentwith
Low MVFR/IFR cigs building into the terminals tomorrow morning.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...73




000
FXUS63 KEAX 260849
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
349 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 349 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

Tricky forecast over the next 36-48 hours as a shortwave trough
ejects out of the desert Southwest and pushes surface low pressure
from the lee side of the Rockies out into western KS. The primary
focus for convective initiation later today, at least from a
synoptic perspective, will be the dryline stretching from west
central KS through the TX panhandle, and the warm front extending
northeastward from southwest KS through the central Plains. However,
there are many caveats to this synoptic perspective as overnight
convection sets up several possible outflow boundaries in and around
the CWA, and any additional convection that develops and moves
into the region early this morning could also have an impact on
today`s storms. High-resolution models are definitely struggling to
resolve the severe potential, with the HRRR developing a cell on the
edge of the LLJ near sunrise in south central NE, expanding the storm
with time, and using its outflow to effectively push the warm front
into our CWA from its forecast afternoon position in southeast NE
through central IA, which then serves as a focus for what can only be
described as convective explosion by mid-afternoon. While that
scenario seems a bit unlikely, the warm front is currently fairly far
south across central KS, and if it does not lift north with time as
is currently forecast, that could result in another scenario with a
result similar to the HRRR forecast. What is known is that plentiful
CAPE and adequate deep-layer shear will be available this afternoon,
setting the stage for severe potential whenever storms do develop or
arrive in the CWA. Based on the large-scale perspective the highest
chances for strong to severe storms should be late this evening into
the night, but with that much instability and a possibility of some
convergence from lingering outflow boundaries, and an unknown
progression of the synoptic warm front, a few storms are at least
possible from late morning onward.

Friday`s severe potential will be highly dependent on how much
convection is ongoing Friday morning, and whether or not any
clearing occurs during the afternoon. Shear is actually its highest
over our CWA on Friday evening as the upper trough shifts eastward,
however instability may be more limited and showers and storms may
be ongoing through much of the day with strong upper-level support
for convection melding into the period when isentropic lift/LLJ
support tends to diurnally wane; thus, it may not be possible to
develop robust updrafts later in the day. Storms are still expected
to develop out to our west along the dryline where instability will
be higher, so if we can clear out long enough to build a bit more
supportive lapse rates, these storms could still be strong to severe
when/if they arrive in the CWA later Friday evening or Friday night.

Storm chances decrease for the weekend, and while PoPs are non-zero
due to available moisture, continued southerly flow, and at least
some instability, the overall forcing will decrease late Friday
night and especially Saturday and Sunday as the upper trough departs
and the dryline retreats back to the west, becoming more diffuse and
likely not sparking daily strong/severe convection is it has been
over the last several days. High temperatures will gradually warm
from the upper 70s on Friday to the mid 80s by Sunday, and lows will
continue at above normal readings in the mid to upper 60s. A return
to the active pattern then begins Monday night as another trough
digs into the western CONUS, and should continue through the end of
the forecast period until the trough ejects out.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

Scattered thunderstorms will push east of all terminals over the next
few hours, then generally quiet and VFR conditions are expected for
the remainder of the morning. A few patches of scattered MVFR stratus
may try to linger behind the storms, but should not be widespread
enough to significantly reduce ceilings for more than a few minutes
at a time. Isolated thunderstorms may develop as early as 18z on
Thursday, but will become increasingly likely through the evening and
early overnight hours Thursday night. Winds, once they recover behind
the storms early this morning, will return to the south and stay
southerly at 10 to 15 kts, occasionally gusting greater than 20 kts
during the daylight hours Thursday.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Laflin




000
FXUS63 KLSX 260718
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
218 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Convection a little closer than the previous two nights with a
broken line of showers and storms stretching from near KIRK to south
of Kansas City this morning. Most of the guidance shows this line
moving east-southeast into the CWA during the predawn hours and
reaching the STL Metro between 12-14Z.  Have chance/sct PoPs given
uncertainty in coverage and will NOWcast up until morning forecast
issuance.

This activity should steadily sink south into the eastern Ozarks and
southeast Missouri with the remainder of the CWA drying out and
warming up this afternoon. Can`t rule out an isolated showers or
storm popping up during the heat of the day, but believe best
chances of convection will be further west as outlooked by SPC.  In
fact, much of the guidance keeps the evening hours dry for the area
with rain chances ramping up after 06z tonight from the west and
southwest. This uptick in PoPs heading into Friday will be in
response to the upper level system that has been parked across the
southwest CONUS finally ejecting into the Plains and large scale
lift overspreading the Midwest.

CVKING

.LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Still appears that the best chances of widespread rainfall will
occur on Friday with likely to categorical PoPs in order. Cloud
cover and precipitation will keep temperatures cooler with highs
only in the 70s and lower 80s. Several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms will likely affect the CWA through Saturday night,
but none look particularly favorable for severe weather.

Appears that there will be a break from the rain on Sunday and
Memorial Day as temperatures warm back up into the middle 80s each
afternoon. Thunderstorm chances increase again next week, as
southwest flow reestablishes itself across the central CONUS.
Temperatures look to remain warm with highs in the 80s.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Showers and thunderstorms could still occur at anytime during the
TAF period in this warm and unstable airmass. Chances are not high
enough to include at any terminals before 12Z except KUIN when
scattered showers and thunderstorms currently enter northwest MO
may affect that terminal. Some MVFR/possible IFR ceilings and
visibilities may occur with the heavier downpours during this
time. Otherwise expect dry and VFR conditions until after 00Z when
showers and thunderstorms are expected to move into the area from
the west. Winds will be southerly except when otherwise
influenced by outflow from thunderstorms.

Specifics for KSTL: Mainly dry and VFR conditions are expected
the next 30 hours. There is some potential for thunderstorms
during the period, with the main chance occurring after 12Z on
Thursday. Any thunderstorms would have the potential to bring
MVFR or possible IFR ceilings and visibilities with the heavier
downpours.

Britt

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis     86  70  80  67 /  50  50  70  60
Quincy          85  67  78  65 /  30  60  70  60
Columbia        86  67  77  64 /  50  60  70  60
Jefferson City  87  68  77  66 /  50  50  70  60
Salem           85  70  81  67 /  40  40  60  50
Farmington      83  68  77  65 /  50  50  70  60

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KSGF 260502
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1202 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Upper level low over southern California is expected to make its
way into southern Colorado by 00z Friday. The surface front is
situated from a low over northern South Dakota into a second low
over south central Kansas with a dryline extending into west
Texas.

The convection from earlier today has worked over the atmosphere
pretty well. As such...will keep PoPs low as not much around but
a few outflow boundaries to act as a trigger and convection would
be isolated to widely scattered at best.

The surface front on Thursday meanders on the northern end but
does not make much progress on the southern end. So...despite and
warm and unstable air mass across the region...the lack of a
triggering mechanism will limit both the intensity and coverage of
any convection

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

As we move into late week...the upper low out west will lift into
the northern plains. This combined with a low level jet forming
over Oklahoma overnight on Thursday...could allow storms over the
central plains to make it into our area. A few of these storms
have the potential to become severe with damaging winds and large
hail being the primary threat.

For the Memorial Day weekend...the upper low continues to lift
into southern Canada taking the surface front with it as well.
Without an actual frontal passage...the area remains within the
warm sector. With a series of impulses moving through the upper
level southwest flow pattern...scattered showers and thunderstorms
remain a possibility as well. Temperatures will be near to
slightly above normal normal.

By Monday evening into Tuesday...a new cutoff low forms over
southern California keeping the area within southwest flow under a
warm and humid air mass which will continue the current pattern
through the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Lowering ceilings with abundant
moisture in the low levels are occurring with mvfr and ifr
ceilings becoming more common over southern MO. We should continue
to see lowering ceiling over the next few hours before a gradual
improvement after 15z. Thunderstorm activity to the north will
need to be monitored with some guidance dropping it southeast into
parts of the during or just after the 12z-15z time frame.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...DSA




000
FXUS63 KEAX 252042
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
342 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 342 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

Short Term (Today through Friday night):

Showers and thunderstorms from this morning/early afternoon have
dissipated and the remainder of the evening is expected to remain
dry. Convection is expected to develop along a dryline out across
central Kansas late this afternoon and spread eastward tonight.
These storms will be in a weakening phase as they approach the area
however the western portion of the CWA may experience scattered
showers and thunderstorms tonight. Overnight...a shortwave moving
through the base of a trough across the northern Plains will force a
back door front towards the area and showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop along this front and sink into northern
Missouri. These storms are also expected to be in a weakening phase
as they sink into the CWA. The best chance for severe weather will
occur late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night. This will occur
as an upper level trough ejects out into the central High Plains.
This will provide the forcing for thunderstorms to develop along a
dryline out across western Kansas and then move east-northeastward
along a warm front which be progged to extend near the KS/NE border.
All modes of severe weather will be possible west of the area with
hail and damaging winds the main threats across the local area
tomorrow evening into tomorrow night. Storms are expected to
continue into Friday morning. The upper level trough will move into
the central Plains on Friday and weaken as it does. Consequently,
with morning storms helping to limit instability and a weakening
trough, severe potential should be minimized. Thunderstorm chances
are however expected to continue Friday into Friday night.

Extended Term: (Saturday through Wednesday):

The extended period looks to be a continuation of the unsettled
weather pattern. Saturday and Sunday the upper trough will slowly
move through the eastern Plains and into the Midwest continuing
scattered thunderstorm chances through the weekend. By the beginning
of next week the pattern reverts back to a similar one to the one at
the beginning of this week with a trough over the southwestern CONUS
and southwesterly flow aloft across the local area. Several
shortwaves ejecting out ahead of the trough over the southwestern
CONUS will continue scattered thunderstorm chances for the first
half of next week.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

Light showers and thunderstorms are affecting the terminals now and
there may be few storms in the VC thru 19Z. Otrw...expect sct-bkn
cigs btn around 4kft thru the afternoon and evening. Storms are
expected to regenerate acrs central KS this afternoon/evening and
spread ewd tonight. There may be storms in the VC of the terminals as
early as 04z however confidence is low at this time. Models are all
consistant in bringing MVFR cigs into the terminals around 10Z and
having them persist thru the morning hours tomorrow.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...73




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