Latest:
 AFDLSX |  AFDSGF |  AFDEAX |
  [top]

000
FXUS63 KEAX 250922
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
422 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 421 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Memorial Day:

At least 3 weather features to consider for today/tonight. The last
shortwave of a system which brought us a wet weekend is currently
tracking through the western portion of the CWA. Area of showers (no
instability = no thunder) will clear the northeast portion of the
forecast area shortly after sunrise. Clearing is not imminent as
noted by extensive area of low clouds which have formed across
central and eastern KS. Short range models expand this cloud cover
across the region this morning. Will lower hourly temperatures to
account for this but believe we`ll see sufficient breaks in the
afternoon to allow for rapid warmup and thus achieve seasonal type
highs.

Next feature is a small MCS with a bowing segment which continues
progressing east through central KS. Last several runs of the HRRR
weaken this feature as it continues to press east into a less
favorable airmass but so far the system has resisted this forecast.
Will carry some low end chance PoPs over northwest/west central
counties to account for the remnants.

Last feature deals with the severe potential over northwest MO this
evening. A closed upper low over CO is progged to shift into the
Central Plains with scattered afternoon convection forming over
south central NE/north central KS where airmass destabilizes, MUCAPE
in of 2500+ J/kg and low-end 0-6km shear of 30-35kt. A westerly
steering flow would allow any MCS to track east and into northwest
MO during the evening hours. Damaging winds looks like the main
threat.

Tuesday - Thursday:

Unsettled pattern with a departing shortwave on Tuesday followed by
shortwave ridging moving across the Central Plains and MO on
Wednesday and then increasing southwesterly flow aloft on Thursday.
Operational models continue to drag then stall a weak boundary over
northern MO. With isentropic ascent tied to the passing of the
shortwave ridging on Wednesday and weak perturbations embedded
within the southwesterly flow on Thursday plus the aforementioned
boundary to help focus convergence we should have several chances
for active convection.

Friday - Sunday:

This period looks even more unsettled with high expectations for
rain as a broad and slow moving upper trough nudges eastward. Gulf
of Mexico will be open to allow deep moisture plume to advect
northward. This looks ominous for another round of heavy rains.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Current ceilings are a mix between low-end VFR and MVFR, and trends
suggest that prevailing conditions should eventually become MVFR,
albeit there may be some fluctuations overnight between the two
categories. Otherwise, mixing and drier air should promote a return
to VFR by mid-morning with increasing southerly winds.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 250922
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
422 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 421 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Memorial Day:

At least 3 weather features to consider for today/tonight. The last
shortwave of a system which brought us a wet weekend is currently
tracking through the western portion of the CWA. Area of showers (no
instability = no thunder) will clear the northeast portion of the
forecast area shortly after sunrise. Clearing is not imminent as
noted by extensive area of low clouds which have formed across
central and eastern KS. Short range models expand this cloud cover
across the region this morning. Will lower hourly temperatures to
account for this but believe we`ll see sufficient breaks in the
afternoon to allow for rapid warmup and thus achieve seasonal type
highs.

Next feature is a small MCS with a bowing segment which continues
progressing east through central KS. Last several runs of the HRRR
weaken this feature as it continues to press east into a less
favorable airmass but so far the system has resisted this forecast.
Will carry some low end chance PoPs over northwest/west central
counties to account for the remnants.

Last feature deals with the severe potential over northwest MO this
evening. A closed upper low over CO is progged to shift into the
Central Plains with scattered afternoon convection forming over
south central NE/north central KS where airmass destabilizes, MUCAPE
in of 2500+ J/kg and low-end 0-6km shear of 30-35kt. A westerly
steering flow would allow any MCS to track east and into northwest
MO during the evening hours. Damaging winds looks like the main
threat.

Tuesday - Thursday:

Unsettled pattern with a departing shortwave on Tuesday followed by
shortwave ridging moving across the Central Plains and MO on
Wednesday and then increasing southwesterly flow aloft on Thursday.
Operational models continue to drag then stall a weak boundary over
northern MO. With isentropic ascent tied to the passing of the
shortwave ridging on Wednesday and weak perturbations embedded
within the southwesterly flow on Thursday plus the aforementioned
boundary to help focus convergence we should have several chances
for active convection.

Friday - Sunday:

This period looks even more unsettled with high expectations for
rain as a broad and slow moving upper trough nudges eastward. Gulf
of Mexico will be open to allow deep moisture plume to advect
northward. This looks ominous for another round of heavy rains.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Current ceilings are a mix between low-end VFR and MVFR, and trends
suggest that prevailing conditions should eventually become MVFR,
albeit there may be some fluctuations overnight between the two
categories. Otherwise, mixing and drier air should promote a return
to VFR by mid-morning with increasing southerly winds.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 250922
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
422 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 421 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Memorial Day:

At least 3 weather features to consider for today/tonight. The last
shortwave of a system which brought us a wet weekend is currently
tracking through the western portion of the CWA. Area of showers (no
instability = no thunder) will clear the northeast portion of the
forecast area shortly after sunrise. Clearing is not imminent as
noted by extensive area of low clouds which have formed across
central and eastern KS. Short range models expand this cloud cover
across the region this morning. Will lower hourly temperatures to
account for this but believe we`ll see sufficient breaks in the
afternoon to allow for rapid warmup and thus achieve seasonal type
highs.

Next feature is a small MCS with a bowing segment which continues
progressing east through central KS. Last several runs of the HRRR
weaken this feature as it continues to press east into a less
favorable airmass but so far the system has resisted this forecast.
Will carry some low end chance PoPs over northwest/west central
counties to account for the remnants.

Last feature deals with the severe potential over northwest MO this
evening. A closed upper low over CO is progged to shift into the
Central Plains with scattered afternoon convection forming over
south central NE/north central KS where airmass destabilizes, MUCAPE
in of 2500+ J/kg and low-end 0-6km shear of 30-35kt. A westerly
steering flow would allow any MCS to track east and into northwest
MO during the evening hours. Damaging winds looks like the main
threat.

Tuesday - Thursday:

Unsettled pattern with a departing shortwave on Tuesday followed by
shortwave ridging moving across the Central Plains and MO on
Wednesday and then increasing southwesterly flow aloft on Thursday.
Operational models continue to drag then stall a weak boundary over
northern MO. With isentropic ascent tied to the passing of the
shortwave ridging on Wednesday and weak perturbations embedded
within the southwesterly flow on Thursday plus the aforementioned
boundary to help focus convergence we should have several chances
for active convection.

Friday - Sunday:

This period looks even more unsettled with high expectations for
rain as a broad and slow moving upper trough nudges eastward. Gulf
of Mexico will be open to allow deep moisture plume to advect
northward. This looks ominous for another round of heavy rains.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Current ceilings are a mix between low-end VFR and MVFR, and trends
suggest that prevailing conditions should eventually become MVFR,
albeit there may be some fluctuations overnight between the two
categories. Otherwise, mixing and drier air should promote a return
to VFR by mid-morning with increasing southerly winds.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 250922
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
422 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 421 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Memorial Day:

At least 3 weather features to consider for today/tonight. The last
shortwave of a system which brought us a wet weekend is currently
tracking through the western portion of the CWA. Area of showers (no
instability = no thunder) will clear the northeast portion of the
forecast area shortly after sunrise. Clearing is not imminent as
noted by extensive area of low clouds which have formed across
central and eastern KS. Short range models expand this cloud cover
across the region this morning. Will lower hourly temperatures to
account for this but believe we`ll see sufficient breaks in the
afternoon to allow for rapid warmup and thus achieve seasonal type
highs.

Next feature is a small MCS with a bowing segment which continues
progressing east through central KS. Last several runs of the HRRR
weaken this feature as it continues to press east into a less
favorable airmass but so far the system has resisted this forecast.
Will carry some low end chance PoPs over northwest/west central
counties to account for the remnants.

Last feature deals with the severe potential over northwest MO this
evening. A closed upper low over CO is progged to shift into the
Central Plains with scattered afternoon convection forming over
south central NE/north central KS where airmass destabilizes, MUCAPE
in of 2500+ J/kg and low-end 0-6km shear of 30-35kt. A westerly
steering flow would allow any MCS to track east and into northwest
MO during the evening hours. Damaging winds looks like the main
threat.

Tuesday - Thursday:

Unsettled pattern with a departing shortwave on Tuesday followed by
shortwave ridging moving across the Central Plains and MO on
Wednesday and then increasing southwesterly flow aloft on Thursday.
Operational models continue to drag then stall a weak boundary over
northern MO. With isentropic ascent tied to the passing of the
shortwave ridging on Wednesday and weak perturbations embedded
within the southwesterly flow on Thursday plus the aforementioned
boundary to help focus convergence we should have several chances
for active convection.

Friday - Sunday:

This period looks even more unsettled with high expectations for
rain as a broad and slow moving upper trough nudges eastward. Gulf
of Mexico will be open to allow deep moisture plume to advect
northward. This looks ominous for another round of heavy rains.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Current ceilings are a mix between low-end VFR and MVFR, and trends
suggest that prevailing conditions should eventually become MVFR,
albeit there may be some fluctuations overnight between the two
categories. Otherwise, mixing and drier air should promote a return
to VFR by mid-morning with increasing southerly winds.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Blair






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KLSX 250842
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
342 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

Area of showers currently over west central Missouri will move
northeast and will affect some of the northeast Missouri counties
before 9 am ahead of the mid level shortwave that will move out of
the area by mid-morning. Otherwise, expect a drier day today as
area will lie under subsidence in the wake of the shortwave
trough. Only exception will be over parts of central and southeast
Missouri into southern Illinois where the atmosphere will become
unstable which could still lead to a few showers and thunderstorms
developing during the afternoon hours. High temperatures this
afternoon will be close to what they were on Sunday, which were in
the lower-mid 80s.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

(Tonight through Wednesday)

Will continue to follow the NAM/ECMWF which has had the best
continuity as of late.  Have kept with current trends on PoPs
tonight into Tuesday.  A shortwave ridge will move off to the east
of the area tonight which will allow for a rapid increase in ascent
after 06Z caused by the approach the next mid-level trough and
increasing low-level moisture convergence.  Will keep likely PoPs
over much of the southern half of the CWA of the area after midnight
tonight, and continue them into Tuesday morning as the mid-
level trough moves through before the showers and thunderstorms
become scattered during the afternoon.  The chance of thunderstorms
will continue Tuesday night into Wednesday as another weak shortwave
moves across the area.

(Thursday through next Sunday)

Rain chances will continue into the extended part of the forecast as
upper trough over western CONUS moves into the Great Plains and
eventually through Middle Mississippi Valley by next Sunday.  ECMWF
shows a series of shortwave troughs with attendant low level
moisture convergence moving through the area ahead of this main
trough.  This is worth keeping a chance of showers and thunderstorms
in each day with the best chance on Saturday when ECMWF currently
shows a cold front moving through.  Temperatures will stay close to
normal with 850mb temperatures in the 10-15C range.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015
Other than some sprinkles or an isolated shower it appears that
the threat of rain is rather low for the St. Louis regional
terminals the remainder of the night. Showers will continue to
impact KCOU and KUIN with potential for IFR conditions. Otherwise
MVFR flight conditions/cigs are expected to develop across the
area and impact all terminals overnight with conditions improving
and clouds becoming scattered by mid morning on Monday.

Specifics for KSTL:
Other than some sprinkles or an isolated shower it appears that
the threat of rain is rather low for the remainder of the night.
MVFR flight conditions/cigs are expected to develop across the
area and impact KSTL overnight with conditions improving and
clouds becoming scattered by mid morning on Monday.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KSGF 250819
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
319 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A surface ridge was moving across the Ozarks early this morning
and was pushing the remaining precipitation north and east of the
region. While sunny skies are not expected, there should be a bit
more sun through out the day through scattered cloud cover. This
will allow afternoon temperatures to climb to around the 80 degree
mark.

Though there is some residual flooding occurring along some
rivers in the western part of the Ozarks and southeastern Kansas,
will be canceling the Flash Flood Watch early as little if any
rain is expected today.

The ridge is expected to slowly move across the area through
today, as another upper level short wave swings north towards the
Ozarks for tonight. Showers should develop in advance of the wave
as early as 00z. The short wave then begins to move through the
region during the overnight hours tonight. The heavier rains with
this wave should stay along the MO/AR state line with around an
inch of rain possible. Will need to watch for heavier rain
potential, but think that the bulk of the rainfall will fall south
of the state line and should not pose any flood risk for the
Ozarks tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

There is very little change in the overall pattern noted by the
models for the coming week and into next weekend. Periods of
showers and scattered storms will be interspersed and mingled with
dry and sunny weather each day this week. No period looks as
though it stands out at this time for heavy rains or severe
storms. However, the models do handle the fine details slightly
differently each day. This week will be a short term, mesoscale
challenge each day with the potential for localized heavy rain
and/or strong storms possible each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A very moist low level air mass will remain in place across
southern Missouri into early Monday morning. Ceilings will trend
downward towards the IFR range by late tonight, with pockets of
LIFR expected. Pockets of drizzle and light rain showers will also
continue during the early overnight hours. Meanwhile, any breaks
in the clouds will result in a quick onset of fog. The best
prospects for fog will be around Joplin, where there is the
potential for dense fog during the predawn hours. Flight
conditions will then slowly improve starting around mid-morning on
Monday with winds increasing from the south. VFR conditions should
return to the area by mid-afternoon on Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 250819
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
319 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A surface ridge was moving across the Ozarks early this morning
and was pushing the remaining precipitation north and east of the
region. While sunny skies are not expected, there should be a bit
more sun through out the day through scattered cloud cover. This
will allow afternoon temperatures to climb to around the 80 degree
mark.

Though there is some residual flooding occurring along some
rivers in the western part of the Ozarks and southeastern Kansas,
will be canceling the Flash Flood Watch early as little if any
rain is expected today.

The ridge is expected to slowly move across the area through
today, as another upper level short wave swings north towards the
Ozarks for tonight. Showers should develop in advance of the wave
as early as 00z. The short wave then begins to move through the
region during the overnight hours tonight. The heavier rains with
this wave should stay along the MO/AR state line with around an
inch of rain possible. Will need to watch for heavier rain
potential, but think that the bulk of the rainfall will fall south
of the state line and should not pose any flood risk for the
Ozarks tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

There is very little change in the overall pattern noted by the
models for the coming week and into next weekend. Periods of
showers and scattered storms will be interspersed and mingled with
dry and sunny weather each day this week. No period looks as
though it stands out at this time for heavy rains or severe
storms. However, the models do handle the fine details slightly
differently each day. This week will be a short term, mesoscale
challenge each day with the potential for localized heavy rain
and/or strong storms possible each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A very moist low level air mass will remain in place across
southern Missouri into early Monday morning. Ceilings will trend
downward towards the IFR range by late tonight, with pockets of
LIFR expected. Pockets of drizzle and light rain showers will also
continue during the early overnight hours. Meanwhile, any breaks
in the clouds will result in a quick onset of fog. The best
prospects for fog will be around Joplin, where there is the
potential for dense fog during the predawn hours. Flight
conditions will then slowly improve starting around mid-morning on
Monday with winds increasing from the south. VFR conditions should
return to the area by mid-afternoon on Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 250819
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
319 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A surface ridge was moving across the Ozarks early this morning
and was pushing the remaining precipitation north and east of the
region. While sunny skies are not expected, there should be a bit
more sun through out the day through scattered cloud cover. This
will allow afternoon temperatures to climb to around the 80 degree
mark.

Though there is some residual flooding occurring along some
rivers in the western part of the Ozarks and southeastern Kansas,
will be canceling the Flash Flood Watch early as little if any
rain is expected today.

The ridge is expected to slowly move across the area through
today, as another upper level short wave swings north towards the
Ozarks for tonight. Showers should develop in advance of the wave
as early as 00z. The short wave then begins to move through the
region during the overnight hours tonight. The heavier rains with
this wave should stay along the MO/AR state line with around an
inch of rain possible. Will need to watch for heavier rain
potential, but think that the bulk of the rainfall will fall south
of the state line and should not pose any flood risk for the
Ozarks tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

There is very little change in the overall pattern noted by the
models for the coming week and into next weekend. Periods of
showers and scattered storms will be interspersed and mingled with
dry and sunny weather each day this week. No period looks as
though it stands out at this time for heavy rains or severe
storms. However, the models do handle the fine details slightly
differently each day. This week will be a short term, mesoscale
challenge each day with the potential for localized heavy rain
and/or strong storms possible each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A very moist low level air mass will remain in place across
southern Missouri into early Monday morning. Ceilings will trend
downward towards the IFR range by late tonight, with pockets of
LIFR expected. Pockets of drizzle and light rain showers will also
continue during the early overnight hours. Meanwhile, any breaks
in the clouds will result in a quick onset of fog. The best
prospects for fog will be around Joplin, where there is the
potential for dense fog during the predawn hours. Flight
conditions will then slowly improve starting around mid-morning on
Monday with winds increasing from the south. VFR conditions should
return to the area by mid-afternoon on Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 250819
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
319 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A surface ridge was moving across the Ozarks early this morning
and was pushing the remaining precipitation north and east of the
region. While sunny skies are not expected, there should be a bit
more sun through out the day through scattered cloud cover. This
will allow afternoon temperatures to climb to around the 80 degree
mark.

Though there is some residual flooding occurring along some
rivers in the western part of the Ozarks and southeastern Kansas,
will be canceling the Flash Flood Watch early as little if any
rain is expected today.

The ridge is expected to slowly move across the area through
today, as another upper level short wave swings north towards the
Ozarks for tonight. Showers should develop in advance of the wave
as early as 00z. The short wave then begins to move through the
region during the overnight hours tonight. The heavier rains with
this wave should stay along the MO/AR state line with around an
inch of rain possible. Will need to watch for heavier rain
potential, but think that the bulk of the rainfall will fall south
of the state line and should not pose any flood risk for the
Ozarks tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

There is very little change in the overall pattern noted by the
models for the coming week and into next weekend. Periods of
showers and scattered storms will be interspersed and mingled with
dry and sunny weather each day this week. No period looks as
though it stands out at this time for heavy rains or severe
storms. However, the models do handle the fine details slightly
differently each day. This week will be a short term, mesoscale
challenge each day with the potential for localized heavy rain
and/or strong storms possible each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A very moist low level air mass will remain in place across
southern Missouri into early Monday morning. Ceilings will trend
downward towards the IFR range by late tonight, with pockets of
LIFR expected. Pockets of drizzle and light rain showers will also
continue during the early overnight hours. Meanwhile, any breaks
in the clouds will result in a quick onset of fog. The best
prospects for fog will be around Joplin, where there is the
potential for dense fog during the predawn hours. Flight
conditions will then slowly improve starting around mid-morning on
Monday with winds increasing from the south. VFR conditions should
return to the area by mid-afternoon on Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 250546
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1246 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 409 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A shortwave trough will track north from Arkansas and across
southern Missouri tonight. Rain and thunderstorms will increase
through the evening with the primary severe storm risk across
south central Missouri where at least modest destabilization had
occurred. Given the strength of the low level shear and presence
of more than ample low level CAPE the risk for isolated tornadoes
will continue into the evening across south central Missouri.

Another round of moderate to heavy rainfall will overspread much
of the area this evening with the highest rates across south
central Missouri. The Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to cover
the entire forecast area through tonight.

It appears we will see a break in the action Monday in the wake of
exiting shortwave. However an isolated shower or storm cannot be
ruled out during the day.

Another shortwave trough will approach from the southwest Monday
night bringing another round of showers and storms into Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The unsettled weather pattern will continue the remainder of the
week as a series of shortwave troughs traverse through a quasi-
zonal flow. There will be intermittent chances of showers and
thunderstorms but there are no strong signals for severe weather.
Given the increasingly saturated conditions the flood potential
will have to be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A very moist low level air mass will remain in place across
southern Missouri into early Monday morning. Ceilings will trend
downward towards the IFR range by late tonight, with pockets of
LIFR expected. Pockets of drizzle and light rain showers will also
continue during the early overnight hours. Meanwhile, any breaks
in the clouds will result in a quick onset of fog. The best
prospects for fog will be around Joplin, where there is the
potential for dense fog during the predawn hours. Flight
conditions will then slowly improve starting around mid-morning on
Monday with winds increasing from the south. VFR conditions should
return to the area by mid-afternoon on Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 250546
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1246 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 409 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A shortwave trough will track north from Arkansas and across
southern Missouri tonight. Rain and thunderstorms will increase
through the evening with the primary severe storm risk across
south central Missouri where at least modest destabilization had
occurred. Given the strength of the low level shear and presence
of more than ample low level CAPE the risk for isolated tornadoes
will continue into the evening across south central Missouri.

Another round of moderate to heavy rainfall will overspread much
of the area this evening with the highest rates across south
central Missouri. The Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to cover
the entire forecast area through tonight.

It appears we will see a break in the action Monday in the wake of
exiting shortwave. However an isolated shower or storm cannot be
ruled out during the day.

Another shortwave trough will approach from the southwest Monday
night bringing another round of showers and storms into Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The unsettled weather pattern will continue the remainder of the
week as a series of shortwave troughs traverse through a quasi-
zonal flow. There will be intermittent chances of showers and
thunderstorms but there are no strong signals for severe weather.
Given the increasingly saturated conditions the flood potential
will have to be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A very moist low level air mass will remain in place across
southern Missouri into early Monday morning. Ceilings will trend
downward towards the IFR range by late tonight, with pockets of
LIFR expected. Pockets of drizzle and light rain showers will also
continue during the early overnight hours. Meanwhile, any breaks
in the clouds will result in a quick onset of fog. The best
prospects for fog will be around Joplin, where there is the
potential for dense fog during the predawn hours. Flight
conditions will then slowly improve starting around mid-morning on
Monday with winds increasing from the south. VFR conditions should
return to the area by mid-afternoon on Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KEAX 250445
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1145 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Severe threat east of Route 65 should come to an end in the next few
hrs as modest instability axis continues to build east into east-
central and northeastern Missouri. Beyond that...main concerns remain
focused on ongoing moderate to heavy rainfall this evening with
regional radar mosaic showing the third and final blow developing
over northern Oklahoma this afternoon. Current thinking is this
activity will begin tracking northward later this evening/early
overnight as main mid-level wave and associated sfc reflection ride
up a lingering convergent trough axis now in place along/near the
Route 65 corridor. Due to the slight eastward shift in expected sfc
low track...heaviest rains overnight will likely remain focused east
of the KC Metro...while areas along and west of the highway 71 and
I-35 corridors should be able to breath a sigh of relief. Obviously
this can all change...and evening/overnight shifts will have to
monitor trends. At last count...28 forecast points on area rivers and
streams are in...or expected to reach flood stage. Any slight
movement east or west of main QPF axis later tonight may have impacts
on forecasted crest heights for several locations (i.e. Mosby, MO).

Main wave to move through during the early morning which should lead
to a gradual drying trend towards daybreak. Much of tomorrow looks to
remain dry however cannot rule out developing shwrs/storms across far
northwest MO/northeast KS by late afternoon as main mid-level wave
moves through the Central Plains. As this feature nears...expect wind
fields to increase as confluent flow on east side of trough axis glances
our area. Main limiting factor will be a fairly strong cap which if
it can break...a few strong to severe storms will be possible.

Main cold front associated with aforementioned system to move in
during the early morning hrs on Wednesday. Models have been
consistent in their suggestion that feature will stall across
northern portions of the fcst area...with boundary then acting as a
mechanism for renewed shwr/storm development through the middle
stages of the work week. With zonal flow prevailing aloft...no real
signs for enhanced winds thus overall severe threat looks minimal at
this vantage point. Heading into the latter stages of the work week
and next weekend...upper-level pattern looks blocky once again with
next large scale wave stalling over the eastern Rockies and High
Plains. GFS advertises a large upper low spinning across central
Kansas with the ECMWF showing a similar (open wave) solution.
Regardless...unsettled wx pattern looks like its here to stay.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Current ceilings are a mix between low-end VFR and MVFR, and trends
suggest that prevailing conditions should eventually become MVFR,
albeit there may be some fluctuations overnight between the two
categories. Otherwise, mixing and drier air should promote a return
to VFR by mid-morning with increasing southerly winds.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Monday FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Monday FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 250445
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1145 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Severe threat east of Route 65 should come to an end in the next few
hrs as modest instability axis continues to build east into east-
central and northeastern Missouri. Beyond that...main concerns remain
focused on ongoing moderate to heavy rainfall this evening with
regional radar mosaic showing the third and final blow developing
over northern Oklahoma this afternoon. Current thinking is this
activity will begin tracking northward later this evening/early
overnight as main mid-level wave and associated sfc reflection ride
up a lingering convergent trough axis now in place along/near the
Route 65 corridor. Due to the slight eastward shift in expected sfc
low track...heaviest rains overnight will likely remain focused east
of the KC Metro...while areas along and west of the highway 71 and
I-35 corridors should be able to breath a sigh of relief. Obviously
this can all change...and evening/overnight shifts will have to
monitor trends. At last count...28 forecast points on area rivers and
streams are in...or expected to reach flood stage. Any slight
movement east or west of main QPF axis later tonight may have impacts
on forecasted crest heights for several locations (i.e. Mosby, MO).

Main wave to move through during the early morning which should lead
to a gradual drying trend towards daybreak. Much of tomorrow looks to
remain dry however cannot rule out developing shwrs/storms across far
northwest MO/northeast KS by late afternoon as main mid-level wave
moves through the Central Plains. As this feature nears...expect wind
fields to increase as confluent flow on east side of trough axis glances
our area. Main limiting factor will be a fairly strong cap which if
it can break...a few strong to severe storms will be possible.

Main cold front associated with aforementioned system to move in
during the early morning hrs on Wednesday. Models have been
consistent in their suggestion that feature will stall across
northern portions of the fcst area...with boundary then acting as a
mechanism for renewed shwr/storm development through the middle
stages of the work week. With zonal flow prevailing aloft...no real
signs for enhanced winds thus overall severe threat looks minimal at
this vantage point. Heading into the latter stages of the work week
and next weekend...upper-level pattern looks blocky once again with
next large scale wave stalling over the eastern Rockies and High
Plains. GFS advertises a large upper low spinning across central
Kansas with the ECMWF showing a similar (open wave) solution.
Regardless...unsettled wx pattern looks like its here to stay.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Current ceilings are a mix between low-end VFR and MVFR, and trends
suggest that prevailing conditions should eventually become MVFR,
albeit there may be some fluctuations overnight between the two
categories. Otherwise, mixing and drier air should promote a return
to VFR by mid-morning with increasing southerly winds.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Monday FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Monday FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 250445
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1145 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Severe threat east of Route 65 should come to an end in the next few
hrs as modest instability axis continues to build east into east-
central and northeastern Missouri. Beyond that...main concerns remain
focused on ongoing moderate to heavy rainfall this evening with
regional radar mosaic showing the third and final blow developing
over northern Oklahoma this afternoon. Current thinking is this
activity will begin tracking northward later this evening/early
overnight as main mid-level wave and associated sfc reflection ride
up a lingering convergent trough axis now in place along/near the
Route 65 corridor. Due to the slight eastward shift in expected sfc
low track...heaviest rains overnight will likely remain focused east
of the KC Metro...while areas along and west of the highway 71 and
I-35 corridors should be able to breath a sigh of relief. Obviously
this can all change...and evening/overnight shifts will have to
monitor trends. At last count...28 forecast points on area rivers and
streams are in...or expected to reach flood stage. Any slight
movement east or west of main QPF axis later tonight may have impacts
on forecasted crest heights for several locations (i.e. Mosby, MO).

Main wave to move through during the early morning which should lead
to a gradual drying trend towards daybreak. Much of tomorrow looks to
remain dry however cannot rule out developing shwrs/storms across far
northwest MO/northeast KS by late afternoon as main mid-level wave
moves through the Central Plains. As this feature nears...expect wind
fields to increase as confluent flow on east side of trough axis glances
our area. Main limiting factor will be a fairly strong cap which if
it can break...a few strong to severe storms will be possible.

Main cold front associated with aforementioned system to move in
during the early morning hrs on Wednesday. Models have been
consistent in their suggestion that feature will stall across
northern portions of the fcst area...with boundary then acting as a
mechanism for renewed shwr/storm development through the middle
stages of the work week. With zonal flow prevailing aloft...no real
signs for enhanced winds thus overall severe threat looks minimal at
this vantage point. Heading into the latter stages of the work week
and next weekend...upper-level pattern looks blocky once again with
next large scale wave stalling over the eastern Rockies and High
Plains. GFS advertises a large upper low spinning across central
Kansas with the ECMWF showing a similar (open wave) solution.
Regardless...unsettled wx pattern looks like its here to stay.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Current ceilings are a mix between low-end VFR and MVFR, and trends
suggest that prevailing conditions should eventually become MVFR,
albeit there may be some fluctuations overnight between the two
categories. Otherwise, mixing and drier air should promote a return
to VFR by mid-morning with increasing southerly winds.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Monday FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Monday FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 250445
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1145 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Severe threat east of Route 65 should come to an end in the next few
hrs as modest instability axis continues to build east into east-
central and northeastern Missouri. Beyond that...main concerns remain
focused on ongoing moderate to heavy rainfall this evening with
regional radar mosaic showing the third and final blow developing
over northern Oklahoma this afternoon. Current thinking is this
activity will begin tracking northward later this evening/early
overnight as main mid-level wave and associated sfc reflection ride
up a lingering convergent trough axis now in place along/near the
Route 65 corridor. Due to the slight eastward shift in expected sfc
low track...heaviest rains overnight will likely remain focused east
of the KC Metro...while areas along and west of the highway 71 and
I-35 corridors should be able to breath a sigh of relief. Obviously
this can all change...and evening/overnight shifts will have to
monitor trends. At last count...28 forecast points on area rivers and
streams are in...or expected to reach flood stage. Any slight
movement east or west of main QPF axis later tonight may have impacts
on forecasted crest heights for several locations (i.e. Mosby, MO).

Main wave to move through during the early morning which should lead
to a gradual drying trend towards daybreak. Much of tomorrow looks to
remain dry however cannot rule out developing shwrs/storms across far
northwest MO/northeast KS by late afternoon as main mid-level wave
moves through the Central Plains. As this feature nears...expect wind
fields to increase as confluent flow on east side of trough axis glances
our area. Main limiting factor will be a fairly strong cap which if
it can break...a few strong to severe storms will be possible.

Main cold front associated with aforementioned system to move in
during the early morning hrs on Wednesday. Models have been
consistent in their suggestion that feature will stall across
northern portions of the fcst area...with boundary then acting as a
mechanism for renewed shwr/storm development through the middle
stages of the work week. With zonal flow prevailing aloft...no real
signs for enhanced winds thus overall severe threat looks minimal at
this vantage point. Heading into the latter stages of the work week
and next weekend...upper-level pattern looks blocky once again with
next large scale wave stalling over the eastern Rockies and High
Plains. GFS advertises a large upper low spinning across central
Kansas with the ECMWF showing a similar (open wave) solution.
Regardless...unsettled wx pattern looks like its here to stay.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Current ceilings are a mix between low-end VFR and MVFR, and trends
suggest that prevailing conditions should eventually become MVFR,
albeit there may be some fluctuations overnight between the two
categories. Otherwise, mixing and drier air should promote a return
to VFR by mid-morning with increasing southerly winds.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Monday FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Monday FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KLSX 250429
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1129 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop in
the unstable airmass this afternoon ahead of the main band of rain
and storms that is aligned north to south from near IRK to
SGF. Initial tornado threat will be with the MCV structure that is
currently moving north-northeast from Sedalia to Kirksville the
next few hours. Perhaps this activity will skirt our western CWA,
but the larger threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will
arrive a bit later this afternoon and evening. A strong shortwave
will lift northeast across the region with an arcing band of
thunderstorms accompanying it. The enviroment will be supportive
of embedded mesovortices and short lived tornadoes as low level
shear and helicity values will increase as the surface wind begins
to back to the south-southeast as low pressure forms to our west.
This activity should be progressive and therefore the threat of
flash flooding remains low in our CWA.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Memorial Day through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Memorial Day still looks dry as subsidence is expected behind
tonights system. Temperatures should be quite mild with some
sunshine expected. The dry weather will not last long thought as
next shortwave will move through the area Monday night and Tuesday
morning bringing the area another round of showers and
thunderstorms. Timing of convection has me doubting we see much
severe weather on Tuesday.

The pattern remains active the remainder of the week and straight
into next weekend. Chance of thunderstorms each day with mild
temperatures. Severe weather chances will depend on timing of
individual shortwaves and available instability/shear.

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015
Other than some sprinkles or an isolated shower it appears that
the threat of rain is rather low for the St. Louis regional
terminals the remainder of the night. Showers will continue to
impact KCOU and KUIN with potential for IFR conditions. Otherwise
MVFR flight conditions/cigs are expected to develop across the
area and impact all terminals overnight with conditions improving
and clouds becoming scattered by mid morning on Monday.

Specifics for KSTL:
Other than some sprinkles or an isolated shower it appears that
the threat of rain is rather low for the remainder of the night.
MVFR flight conditions/cigs are expected to develop across the
area and impact KSTL overnight with conditions improving and
clouds becoming scattered by mid morning on Monday.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 250429
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1129 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop in
the unstable airmass this afternoon ahead of the main band of rain
and storms that is aligned north to south from near IRK to
SGF. Initial tornado threat will be with the MCV structure that is
currently moving north-northeast from Sedalia to Kirksville the
next few hours. Perhaps this activity will skirt our western CWA,
but the larger threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will
arrive a bit later this afternoon and evening. A strong shortwave
will lift northeast across the region with an arcing band of
thunderstorms accompanying it. The enviroment will be supportive
of embedded mesovortices and short lived tornadoes as low level
shear and helicity values will increase as the surface wind begins
to back to the south-southeast as low pressure forms to our west.
This activity should be progressive and therefore the threat of
flash flooding remains low in our CWA.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Memorial Day through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Memorial Day still looks dry as subsidence is expected behind
tonights system. Temperatures should be quite mild with some
sunshine expected. The dry weather will not last long thought as
next shortwave will move through the area Monday night and Tuesday
morning bringing the area another round of showers and
thunderstorms. Timing of convection has me doubting we see much
severe weather on Tuesday.

The pattern remains active the remainder of the week and straight
into next weekend. Chance of thunderstorms each day with mild
temperatures. Severe weather chances will depend on timing of
individual shortwaves and available instability/shear.

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015
Other than some sprinkles or an isolated shower it appears that
the threat of rain is rather low for the St. Louis regional
terminals the remainder of the night. Showers will continue to
impact KCOU and KUIN with potential for IFR conditions. Otherwise
MVFR flight conditions/cigs are expected to develop across the
area and impact all terminals overnight with conditions improving
and clouds becoming scattered by mid morning on Monday.

Specifics for KSTL:
Other than some sprinkles or an isolated shower it appears that
the threat of rain is rather low for the remainder of the night.
MVFR flight conditions/cigs are expected to develop across the
area and impact KSTL overnight with conditions improving and
clouds becoming scattered by mid morning on Monday.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 250001 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
701 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 701 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Mid-level shortwave/mesoscale convective vortex continues to surge
northeast into the region at this hour. Quasi-linear convective
complex associated with this feature is now moving into the
eastern portion of the forecast area. "Best" CAPE is out ahead of
the line over the far eastern Ozarks, where MUCAPE approaches 1000
J/kg. Shear remains high both in the deep layer and low levels,
with low level shear increasing over the next few hours as the low
level jet increases.

The good news is that this system continues to accelerate to the
northeast, most likely exiting before the low level jet begins to
peak. As a result, our severe threat will be for the next hour or
so, with just lingering showers the rest of the evening. The main
risk of severe continues to be an isolated tornado or localized
wind gust.

IR satellite imagery is showing a fast advancing clearing line
from our southwest. If trends continue, there will be a risk for
fog overnight tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 409 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A shortwave trough will track north from Arkansas and across
southern Missouri tonight. Rain and thunderstorms will increase
through the evening with the primary severe storm risk across
south central Missouri where at least modest destabilization had
occurred. Given the strength of the low level shear and presence
of more than ample low level CAPE the risk for isolated tornadoes
will continue into the evening across south central Missouri.

Another round of moderate to heavy rainfall will overspread much
of the area this evening with the highest rates across south
central Missouri. The Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to cover
the entire forecast area through tonight.

It appears we will see a break in the action Monday in the wake of
exiting shortwave. However an isolated shower or storm cannot be
ruled out during the day.

Another shortwave trough will approach from the southwest Monday
night bringing another round of showers and storms into Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The unsettled weather pattern will continue the remainder of the
week as a series of shortwave troughs traverse through a quasi-
zonal flow. There will be intermittent chances of showers and
thunderstorms but there are no strong signals for severe weather.
Given the increasingly saturated conditions the flood potential
will have to be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 701 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Active weather continues across the region. For JLN/SGF/BBG, the
main concerns this evening will be scattered showers and MVFR
cigs. Winds will be variable as a quick moving area of low
pressure moves overhead. Fog concerns are increasing overnight
tonight. Clearing noted on IR satellite imagery over the southern
Plains is advancing to the northeast. This clearing has a good
chance of spreading over the TAF sites. If this does indeed occur,
fog is expected. At this time, IFR visibility has been introduced
and will update as trends continue to unfold this evening. Any
linger clouds/fog should clear by mid/late Monday morning. Overall
a quieter day is expected with gusty south winds.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 250001 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
701 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 701 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Mid-level shortwave/mesoscale convective vortex continues to surge
northeast into the region at this hour. Quasi-linear convective
complex associated with this feature is now moving into the
eastern portion of the forecast area. "Best" CAPE is out ahead of
the line over the far eastern Ozarks, where MUCAPE approaches 1000
J/kg. Shear remains high both in the deep layer and low levels,
with low level shear increasing over the next few hours as the low
level jet increases.

The good news is that this system continues to accelerate to the
northeast, most likely exiting before the low level jet begins to
peak. As a result, our severe threat will be for the next hour or
so, with just lingering showers the rest of the evening. The main
risk of severe continues to be an isolated tornado or localized
wind gust.

IR satellite imagery is showing a fast advancing clearing line
from our southwest. If trends continue, there will be a risk for
fog overnight tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 409 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A shortwave trough will track north from Arkansas and across
southern Missouri tonight. Rain and thunderstorms will increase
through the evening with the primary severe storm risk across
south central Missouri where at least modest destabilization had
occurred. Given the strength of the low level shear and presence
of more than ample low level CAPE the risk for isolated tornadoes
will continue into the evening across south central Missouri.

Another round of moderate to heavy rainfall will overspread much
of the area this evening with the highest rates across south
central Missouri. The Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to cover
the entire forecast area through tonight.

It appears we will see a break in the action Monday in the wake of
exiting shortwave. However an isolated shower or storm cannot be
ruled out during the day.

Another shortwave trough will approach from the southwest Monday
night bringing another round of showers and storms into Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The unsettled weather pattern will continue the remainder of the
week as a series of shortwave troughs traverse through a quasi-
zonal flow. There will be intermittent chances of showers and
thunderstorms but there are no strong signals for severe weather.
Given the increasingly saturated conditions the flood potential
will have to be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 701 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Active weather continues across the region. For JLN/SGF/BBG, the
main concerns this evening will be scattered showers and MVFR
cigs. Winds will be variable as a quick moving area of low
pressure moves overhead. Fog concerns are increasing overnight
tonight. Clearing noted on IR satellite imagery over the southern
Plains is advancing to the northeast. This clearing has a good
chance of spreading over the TAF sites. If this does indeed occur,
fog is expected. At this time, IFR visibility has been introduced
and will update as trends continue to unfold this evening. Any
linger clouds/fog should clear by mid/late Monday morning. Overall
a quieter day is expected with gusty south winds.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Gagan





000
FXUS63 KLSX 242349
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
649 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop in
the unstable airmass this afternoon ahead of the main band of rain
and storms that is aligned north to south from near IRK to
SGF. Initial tornado threat will be with the MCV structure that is
currently moving north-northeast from Sedalia to Kirksville the
next few hours. Perhaps this activity will skirt our western CWA,
but the larger threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will
arrive a bit later this afternoon and evening. A strong shortwave
will lift northeast across the region with an arcing band of
thunderstorms accompanying it. The enviroment will be supportive
of embedded mesovortices and short lived tornadoes as low level
shear and helicity values will increase as the surface wind begins
to back to the south-southeast as low pressure forms to our west.
This activity should be progressive and therefore the threat of
flash flooding remains low in our CWA.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Memorial Day through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Memorial Day still looks dry as subsidence is expected behind
tonights system. Temperatures should be quite mild with some
sunshine expected. The dry weather will not last long thought as
next shortwave will move through the area Monday night and Tuesday
morning bringing the area another round of showers and
thunderstorms. Timing of convection has me doubting we see much
severe weather on Tuesday.

The pattern remains active the remainder of the week and straight
into next weekend. Chance of thunderstorms each day with mild
temperatures. Severe weather chances will depend on timing of
individual shortwaves and available instability/shear.

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Expect periods of SH/TS to continue through the evening until a
low pressure system lifts away from the area. MVFR ceilings are
expected to persist for several hours after the rain has ended.
Once ceilings fall to MVFR later tonight, improvement is not
expected until after 12z. Winds will remain southeasterly to
southerly, then turn southwesterly after 06z with the passage of
the surface low. Winds are forecast to back once again and become
southerly after 18z.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 242349
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
649 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop in
the unstable airmass this afternoon ahead of the main band of rain
and storms that is aligned north to south from near IRK to
SGF. Initial tornado threat will be with the MCV structure that is
currently moving north-northeast from Sedalia to Kirksville the
next few hours. Perhaps this activity will skirt our western CWA,
but the larger threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will
arrive a bit later this afternoon and evening. A strong shortwave
will lift northeast across the region with an arcing band of
thunderstorms accompanying it. The enviroment will be supportive
of embedded mesovortices and short lived tornadoes as low level
shear and helicity values will increase as the surface wind begins
to back to the south-southeast as low pressure forms to our west.
This activity should be progressive and therefore the threat of
flash flooding remains low in our CWA.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Memorial Day through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Memorial Day still looks dry as subsidence is expected behind
tonights system. Temperatures should be quite mild with some
sunshine expected. The dry weather will not last long thought as
next shortwave will move through the area Monday night and Tuesday
morning bringing the area another round of showers and
thunderstorms. Timing of convection has me doubting we see much
severe weather on Tuesday.

The pattern remains active the remainder of the week and straight
into next weekend. Chance of thunderstorms each day with mild
temperatures. Severe weather chances will depend on timing of
individual shortwaves and available instability/shear.

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Expect periods of SH/TS to continue through the evening until a
low pressure system lifts away from the area. MVFR ceilings are
expected to persist for several hours after the rain has ended.
Once ceilings fall to MVFR later tonight, improvement is not
expected until after 12z. Winds will remain southeasterly to
southerly, then turn southwesterly after 06z with the passage of
the surface low. Winds are forecast to back once again and become
southerly after 18z.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 242349
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
649 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop in
the unstable airmass this afternoon ahead of the main band of rain
and storms that is aligned north to south from near IRK to
SGF. Initial tornado threat will be with the MCV structure that is
currently moving north-northeast from Sedalia to Kirksville the
next few hours. Perhaps this activity will skirt our western CWA,
but the larger threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will
arrive a bit later this afternoon and evening. A strong shortwave
will lift northeast across the region with an arcing band of
thunderstorms accompanying it. The enviroment will be supportive
of embedded mesovortices and short lived tornadoes as low level
shear and helicity values will increase as the surface wind begins
to back to the south-southeast as low pressure forms to our west.
This activity should be progressive and therefore the threat of
flash flooding remains low in our CWA.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Memorial Day through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Memorial Day still looks dry as subsidence is expected behind
tonights system. Temperatures should be quite mild with some
sunshine expected. The dry weather will not last long thought as
next shortwave will move through the area Monday night and Tuesday
morning bringing the area another round of showers and
thunderstorms. Timing of convection has me doubting we see much
severe weather on Tuesday.

The pattern remains active the remainder of the week and straight
into next weekend. Chance of thunderstorms each day with mild
temperatures. Severe weather chances will depend on timing of
individual shortwaves and available instability/shear.

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Expect periods of SH/TS to continue through the evening until a
low pressure system lifts away from the area. MVFR ceilings are
expected to persist for several hours after the rain has ended.
Once ceilings fall to MVFR later tonight, improvement is not
expected until after 12z. Winds will remain southeasterly to
southerly, then turn southwesterly after 06z with the passage of
the surface low. Winds are forecast to back once again and become
southerly after 18z.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 242349
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
649 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop in
the unstable airmass this afternoon ahead of the main band of rain
and storms that is aligned north to south from near IRK to
SGF. Initial tornado threat will be with the MCV structure that is
currently moving north-northeast from Sedalia to Kirksville the
next few hours. Perhaps this activity will skirt our western CWA,
but the larger threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will
arrive a bit later this afternoon and evening. A strong shortwave
will lift northeast across the region with an arcing band of
thunderstorms accompanying it. The enviroment will be supportive
of embedded mesovortices and short lived tornadoes as low level
shear and helicity values will increase as the surface wind begins
to back to the south-southeast as low pressure forms to our west.
This activity should be progressive and therefore the threat of
flash flooding remains low in our CWA.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Memorial Day through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Memorial Day still looks dry as subsidence is expected behind
tonights system. Temperatures should be quite mild with some
sunshine expected. The dry weather will not last long thought as
next shortwave will move through the area Monday night and Tuesday
morning bringing the area another round of showers and
thunderstorms. Timing of convection has me doubting we see much
severe weather on Tuesday.

The pattern remains active the remainder of the week and straight
into next weekend. Chance of thunderstorms each day with mild
temperatures. Severe weather chances will depend on timing of
individual shortwaves and available instability/shear.

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Expect periods of SH/TS to continue through the evening until a
low pressure system lifts away from the area. MVFR ceilings are
expected to persist for several hours after the rain has ended.
Once ceilings fall to MVFR later tonight, improvement is not
expected until after 12z. Winds will remain southeasterly to
southerly, then turn southwesterly after 06z with the passage of
the surface low. Winds are forecast to back once again and become
southerly after 18z.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 242349
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
649 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop in
the unstable airmass this afternoon ahead of the main band of rain
and storms that is aligned north to south from near IRK to
SGF. Initial tornado threat will be with the MCV structure that is
currently moving north-northeast from Sedalia to Kirksville the
next few hours. Perhaps this activity will skirt our western CWA,
but the larger threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will
arrive a bit later this afternoon and evening. A strong shortwave
will lift northeast across the region with an arcing band of
thunderstorms accompanying it. The enviroment will be supportive
of embedded mesovortices and short lived tornadoes as low level
shear and helicity values will increase as the surface wind begins
to back to the south-southeast as low pressure forms to our west.
This activity should be progressive and therefore the threat of
flash flooding remains low in our CWA.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Memorial Day through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Memorial Day still looks dry as subsidence is expected behind
tonights system. Temperatures should be quite mild with some
sunshine expected. The dry weather will not last long thought as
next shortwave will move through the area Monday night and Tuesday
morning bringing the area another round of showers and
thunderstorms. Timing of convection has me doubting we see much
severe weather on Tuesday.

The pattern remains active the remainder of the week and straight
into next weekend. Chance of thunderstorms each day with mild
temperatures. Severe weather chances will depend on timing of
individual shortwaves and available instability/shear.

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Expect periods of SH/TS to continue through the evening until a
low pressure system lifts away from the area. MVFR ceilings are
expected to persist for several hours after the rain has ended.
Once ceilings fall to MVFR later tonight, improvement is not
expected until after 12z. Winds will remain southeasterly to
southerly, then turn southwesterly after 06z with the passage of
the surface low. Winds are forecast to back once again and become
southerly after 18z.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 242349
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
649 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop in
the unstable airmass this afternoon ahead of the main band of rain
and storms that is aligned north to south from near IRK to
SGF. Initial tornado threat will be with the MCV structure that is
currently moving north-northeast from Sedalia to Kirksville the
next few hours. Perhaps this activity will skirt our western CWA,
but the larger threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will
arrive a bit later this afternoon and evening. A strong shortwave
will lift northeast across the region with an arcing band of
thunderstorms accompanying it. The enviroment will be supportive
of embedded mesovortices and short lived tornadoes as low level
shear and helicity values will increase as the surface wind begins
to back to the south-southeast as low pressure forms to our west.
This activity should be progressive and therefore the threat of
flash flooding remains low in our CWA.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Memorial Day through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Memorial Day still looks dry as subsidence is expected behind
tonights system. Temperatures should be quite mild with some
sunshine expected. The dry weather will not last long thought as
next shortwave will move through the area Monday night and Tuesday
morning bringing the area another round of showers and
thunderstorms. Timing of convection has me doubting we see much
severe weather on Tuesday.

The pattern remains active the remainder of the week and straight
into next weekend. Chance of thunderstorms each day with mild
temperatures. Severe weather chances will depend on timing of
individual shortwaves and available instability/shear.

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Expect periods of SH/TS to continue through the evening until a
low pressure system lifts away from the area. MVFR ceilings are
expected to persist for several hours after the rain has ended.
Once ceilings fall to MVFR later tonight, improvement is not
expected until after 12z. Winds will remain southeasterly to
southerly, then turn southwesterly after 06z with the passage of
the surface low. Winds are forecast to back once again and become
southerly after 18z.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 242339
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
639 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Severe threat east of Route 65 should come to an end in the next few
hrs as modest instability axis continues to build east into east-
central and northeastern Missouri. Beyond that...main concerns remain
focused on ongoing moderate to heavy rainfall this evening with
regional radar mosaic showing the third and final blow developing
over northern Oklahoma this afternoon. Current thinking is this
activity will begin tracking northward later this evening/early
overnight as main mid-level wave and associated sfc reflection ride
up a lingering convergent trough axis now in place along/near the
Route 65 corridor. Due to the slight eastward shift in expected sfc
low track...heaviest rains overnight will likely remain focused east
of the KC Metro...while areas along and west of the highway 71 and
I-35 corridors should be able to breath a sigh of relief. Obviously
this can all change...and evening/overnight shifts will have to
monitor trends. At last count...28 forecast points on area rivers and
streams are in...or expected to reach flood stage. Any slight
movement east or west of main QPF axis later tonight may have impacts
on forecasted crest heights for several locations (i.e. Mosby, MO).

Main wave to move through during the early morning which should lead
to a gradual drying trend towards daybreak. Much of tomorrow looks to
remain dry however cannot rule out developing shwrs/storms across far
northwest MO/northeast KS by late afternoon as main mid-level wave
moves through the Central Plains. As this feature nears...expect wind
fields to increase as confluent flow on east side of trough axis glances
our area. Main limiting factor will be a fairly strong cap which if
it can break...a few strong to severe storms will be possible.

Main cold front associated with aforementioned system to move in
during the early morning hrs on Wednesday. Models have been
consistent in their suggestion that feature will stall across
northern portions of the fcst area...with boundary then acting as a
mechanism for renewed shwr/storm development through the middle
stages of the work week. With zonal flow prevailing aloft...no real
signs for enhanced winds thus overall severe threat looks minimal at
this vantage point. Heading into the latter stages of the work week
and next weekend...upper-level pattern looks blocky once again with
next large scale wave stalling over the eastern Rockies and High
Plains. GFS advertises a large upper low spinning across central
Kansas with the ECMWF showing a similar (open wave) solution.
Regardless...unsettled wx pattern looks like its here to stay.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Light to moderate rain showers will lift up from the southwest this
evening and tonight, likely impacting all TAF sites between 02z and
at least 08z Monday. Ceilings with these showers are generally around
or slightly above 2 kft, although periods of lower-end MVFR will
become possible after 08z. Eventually, MVFR ceilings will scatter out
by mid-morning Monday, leaving behind VFR conditions for the rest of
the TAF period. Winds will gradually back to the south, increasing to
speeds around 10-12 kts by mid-morning Monday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KEAX 242339
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
639 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Severe threat east of Route 65 should come to an end in the next few
hrs as modest instability axis continues to build east into east-
central and northeastern Missouri. Beyond that...main concerns remain
focused on ongoing moderate to heavy rainfall this evening with
regional radar mosaic showing the third and final blow developing
over northern Oklahoma this afternoon. Current thinking is this
activity will begin tracking northward later this evening/early
overnight as main mid-level wave and associated sfc reflection ride
up a lingering convergent trough axis now in place along/near the
Route 65 corridor. Due to the slight eastward shift in expected sfc
low track...heaviest rains overnight will likely remain focused east
of the KC Metro...while areas along and west of the highway 71 and
I-35 corridors should be able to breath a sigh of relief. Obviously
this can all change...and evening/overnight shifts will have to
monitor trends. At last count...28 forecast points on area rivers and
streams are in...or expected to reach flood stage. Any slight
movement east or west of main QPF axis later tonight may have impacts
on forecasted crest heights for several locations (i.e. Mosby, MO).

Main wave to move through during the early morning which should lead
to a gradual drying trend towards daybreak. Much of tomorrow looks to
remain dry however cannot rule out developing shwrs/storms across far
northwest MO/northeast KS by late afternoon as main mid-level wave
moves through the Central Plains. As this feature nears...expect wind
fields to increase as confluent flow on east side of trough axis glances
our area. Main limiting factor will be a fairly strong cap which if
it can break...a few strong to severe storms will be possible.

Main cold front associated with aforementioned system to move in
during the early morning hrs on Wednesday. Models have been
consistent in their suggestion that feature will stall across
northern portions of the fcst area...with boundary then acting as a
mechanism for renewed shwr/storm development through the middle
stages of the work week. With zonal flow prevailing aloft...no real
signs for enhanced winds thus overall severe threat looks minimal at
this vantage point. Heading into the latter stages of the work week
and next weekend...upper-level pattern looks blocky once again with
next large scale wave stalling over the eastern Rockies and High
Plains. GFS advertises a large upper low spinning across central
Kansas with the ECMWF showing a similar (open wave) solution.
Regardless...unsettled wx pattern looks like its here to stay.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Light to moderate rain showers will lift up from the southwest this
evening and tonight, likely impacting all TAF sites between 02z and
at least 08z Monday. Ceilings with these showers are generally around
or slightly above 2 kft, although periods of lower-end MVFR will
become possible after 08z. Eventually, MVFR ceilings will scatter out
by mid-morning Monday, leaving behind VFR conditions for the rest of
the TAF period. Winds will gradually back to the south, increasing to
speeds around 10-12 kts by mid-morning Monday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KSGF 242159
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
459 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

...Potential for Severe Weather & Flooding Tonight...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 450 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Increase in showers and thunderstorms as we head into late this
afternoon and evening.

Convection had increased across south central Missouri within an
axis of modest mixed layer CAPE while additional convection
associated with an advancing shortwave trough was approaching from
northern Arkansas. This more potent shortwave will lift north
into southern Missouri this evening. Widespread convection will
accompany this feature as it heads north.

Low level shear will increase with this approaching shortwave with
0-3 KM bulk shear near 40 kts with shear vectors oriented to the
north northeast. Meanwhile continued low level moisture advection
and modest surface heating will result in some destabilization
with mixed layer CAPE possibly approaching 1000 J/KG across south
central Missouri. In addition...short term models prog low level
CAPE values potentially up to around 125 J/KG.

The approaching shortwave coupled with the increasing shear and
at least modest destabilization may be enough to trigger isolated
severe storms with locally damaging winds and possibly isolated
tornadoes. The overall risk for severe weather is slight but
aforementioned parameters to support the potential.

The risk for severe weather will be primarily east of Highway 65
across south central Missouri through about 10 PM.

The flooding risk will also increase again this evening with the
heaviest rainfall across southern Missouri.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 409 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A shortwave trough will track north from Arkansas and across
southern Missouri tonight. Rain and thunderstorms will increase
through the evening with the primary severe storm risk across
south central Missouri where at least modest destabilization had
occurred. Given the strength of the low level shear and presence
of more than ample low level CAPE the risk for isolated tornadoes
will continue into the evening across south central Missouri.

Another round of moderate to heavy rainfall will overspread much
of the area this evening with the highest rates across south
central Missouri. The Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to cover
the entire forecast area through tonight.

It appears we will see a break in the action Monday in the wake of
exiting shortwave. However an isolated shower or storm cannot be
ruled out during the day.

Another shortwave trough will approach from the southwest Monday
night bringing another round of showers and storms into Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The unsettled weather pattern will continue the remainder of the
week as a series of shortwave troughs traverse through a quasi-
zonal flow. There will be intermittent chances of showers and
thunderstorms but there are no strong signals for severe weather.
Given the increasingly saturated conditions the flood potential
will have to be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A series of disturbances will continue to move through the region
through early Monday. At times, widespread showers are expected
over all three terminals. Thunderstorms are not entirely out of
the question, however, given modest instability widespread thunder
is not anticipated. LLWS will become an increasing concern again
for a few hours as LLJ increases this evening.

MVFR conditions across all terminals for CIG. JLN VIS has been and
will likely drop off into MVFR range throughout the afternoon.
Respectively, all terminals may drop into IFR range, but
confidence regarding timing is not high at the moment.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Frye






000
FXUS63 KSGF 242159
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
459 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

...Potential for Severe Weather & Flooding Tonight...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 450 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Increase in showers and thunderstorms as we head into late this
afternoon and evening.

Convection had increased across south central Missouri within an
axis of modest mixed layer CAPE while additional convection
associated with an advancing shortwave trough was approaching from
northern Arkansas. This more potent shortwave will lift north
into southern Missouri this evening. Widespread convection will
accompany this feature as it heads north.

Low level shear will increase with this approaching shortwave with
0-3 KM bulk shear near 40 kts with shear vectors oriented to the
north northeast. Meanwhile continued low level moisture advection
and modest surface heating will result in some destabilization
with mixed layer CAPE possibly approaching 1000 J/KG across south
central Missouri. In addition...short term models prog low level
CAPE values potentially up to around 125 J/KG.

The approaching shortwave coupled with the increasing shear and
at least modest destabilization may be enough to trigger isolated
severe storms with locally damaging winds and possibly isolated
tornadoes. The overall risk for severe weather is slight but
aforementioned parameters to support the potential.

The risk for severe weather will be primarily east of Highway 65
across south central Missouri through about 10 PM.

The flooding risk will also increase again this evening with the
heaviest rainfall across southern Missouri.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 409 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A shortwave trough will track north from Arkansas and across
southern Missouri tonight. Rain and thunderstorms will increase
through the evening with the primary severe storm risk across
south central Missouri where at least modest destabilization had
occurred. Given the strength of the low level shear and presence
of more than ample low level CAPE the risk for isolated tornadoes
will continue into the evening across south central Missouri.

Another round of moderate to heavy rainfall will overspread much
of the area this evening with the highest rates across south
central Missouri. The Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to cover
the entire forecast area through tonight.

It appears we will see a break in the action Monday in the wake of
exiting shortwave. However an isolated shower or storm cannot be
ruled out during the day.

Another shortwave trough will approach from the southwest Monday
night bringing another round of showers and storms into Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The unsettled weather pattern will continue the remainder of the
week as a series of shortwave troughs traverse through a quasi-
zonal flow. There will be intermittent chances of showers and
thunderstorms but there are no strong signals for severe weather.
Given the increasingly saturated conditions the flood potential
will have to be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A series of disturbances will continue to move through the region
through early Monday. At times, widespread showers are expected
over all three terminals. Thunderstorms are not entirely out of
the question, however, given modest instability widespread thunder
is not anticipated. LLWS will become an increasing concern again
for a few hours as LLJ increases this evening.

MVFR conditions across all terminals for CIG. JLN VIS has been and
will likely drop off into MVFR range throughout the afternoon.
Respectively, all terminals may drop into IFR range, but
confidence regarding timing is not high at the moment.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Frye







000
FXUS63 KSGF 242159
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
459 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

...Potential for Severe Weather & Flooding Tonight...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 450 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Increase in showers and thunderstorms as we head into late this
afternoon and evening.

Convection had increased across south central Missouri within an
axis of modest mixed layer CAPE while additional convection
associated with an advancing shortwave trough was approaching from
northern Arkansas. This more potent shortwave will lift north
into southern Missouri this evening. Widespread convection will
accompany this feature as it heads north.

Low level shear will increase with this approaching shortwave with
0-3 KM bulk shear near 40 kts with shear vectors oriented to the
north northeast. Meanwhile continued low level moisture advection
and modest surface heating will result in some destabilization
with mixed layer CAPE possibly approaching 1000 J/KG across south
central Missouri. In addition...short term models prog low level
CAPE values potentially up to around 125 J/KG.

The approaching shortwave coupled with the increasing shear and
at least modest destabilization may be enough to trigger isolated
severe storms with locally damaging winds and possibly isolated
tornadoes. The overall risk for severe weather is slight but
aforementioned parameters to support the potential.

The risk for severe weather will be primarily east of Highway 65
across south central Missouri through about 10 PM.

The flooding risk will also increase again this evening with the
heaviest rainfall across southern Missouri.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 409 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A shortwave trough will track north from Arkansas and across
southern Missouri tonight. Rain and thunderstorms will increase
through the evening with the primary severe storm risk across
south central Missouri where at least modest destabilization had
occurred. Given the strength of the low level shear and presence
of more than ample low level CAPE the risk for isolated tornadoes
will continue into the evening across south central Missouri.

Another round of moderate to heavy rainfall will overspread much
of the area this evening with the highest rates across south
central Missouri. The Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to cover
the entire forecast area through tonight.

It appears we will see a break in the action Monday in the wake of
exiting shortwave. However an isolated shower or storm cannot be
ruled out during the day.

Another shortwave trough will approach from the southwest Monday
night bringing another round of showers and storms into Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The unsettled weather pattern will continue the remainder of the
week as a series of shortwave troughs traverse through a quasi-
zonal flow. There will be intermittent chances of showers and
thunderstorms but there are no strong signals for severe weather.
Given the increasingly saturated conditions the flood potential
will have to be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A series of disturbances will continue to move through the region
through early Monday. At times, widespread showers are expected
over all three terminals. Thunderstorms are not entirely out of
the question, however, given modest instability widespread thunder
is not anticipated. LLWS will become an increasing concern again
for a few hours as LLJ increases this evening.

MVFR conditions across all terminals for CIG. JLN VIS has been and
will likely drop off into MVFR range throughout the afternoon.
Respectively, all terminals may drop into IFR range, but
confidence regarding timing is not high at the moment.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Frye







000
FXUS63 KSGF 242159
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
459 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

...Potential for Severe Weather & Flooding Tonight...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 450 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Increase in showers and thunderstorms as we head into late this
afternoon and evening.

Convection had increased across south central Missouri within an
axis of modest mixed layer CAPE while additional convection
associated with an advancing shortwave trough was approaching from
northern Arkansas. This more potent shortwave will lift north
into southern Missouri this evening. Widespread convection will
accompany this feature as it heads north.

Low level shear will increase with this approaching shortwave with
0-3 KM bulk shear near 40 kts with shear vectors oriented to the
north northeast. Meanwhile continued low level moisture advection
and modest surface heating will result in some destabilization
with mixed layer CAPE possibly approaching 1000 J/KG across south
central Missouri. In addition...short term models prog low level
CAPE values potentially up to around 125 J/KG.

The approaching shortwave coupled with the increasing shear and
at least modest destabilization may be enough to trigger isolated
severe storms with locally damaging winds and possibly isolated
tornadoes. The overall risk for severe weather is slight but
aforementioned parameters to support the potential.

The risk for severe weather will be primarily east of Highway 65
across south central Missouri through about 10 PM.

The flooding risk will also increase again this evening with the
heaviest rainfall across southern Missouri.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 409 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A shortwave trough will track north from Arkansas and across
southern Missouri tonight. Rain and thunderstorms will increase
through the evening with the primary severe storm risk across
south central Missouri where at least modest destabilization had
occurred. Given the strength of the low level shear and presence
of more than ample low level CAPE the risk for isolated tornadoes
will continue into the evening across south central Missouri.

Another round of moderate to heavy rainfall will overspread much
of the area this evening with the highest rates across south
central Missouri. The Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to cover
the entire forecast area through tonight.

It appears we will see a break in the action Monday in the wake of
exiting shortwave. However an isolated shower or storm cannot be
ruled out during the day.

Another shortwave trough will approach from the southwest Monday
night bringing another round of showers and storms into Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The unsettled weather pattern will continue the remainder of the
week as a series of shortwave troughs traverse through a quasi-
zonal flow. There will be intermittent chances of showers and
thunderstorms but there are no strong signals for severe weather.
Given the increasingly saturated conditions the flood potential
will have to be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A series of disturbances will continue to move through the region
through early Monday. At times, widespread showers are expected
over all three terminals. Thunderstorms are not entirely out of
the question, however, given modest instability widespread thunder
is not anticipated. LLWS will become an increasing concern again
for a few hours as LLJ increases this evening.

MVFR conditions across all terminals for CIG. JLN VIS has been and
will likely drop off into MVFR range throughout the afternoon.
Respectively, all terminals may drop into IFR range, but
confidence regarding timing is not high at the moment.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Frye






000
FXUS63 KEAX 242026
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
326 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Severe threat east of Route 65 should come to an end in the next few
hrs as modest instability axis continues to build east into east-
central and northeastern Missouri. Beyond that...main concerns remain
focused on ongoing moderate to heavy rainfall this evening with
regional radar mosaic showing the third and final blow developing
over northern Oklahoma this afternoon. Current thinking is this
activity will begin tracking northward later this evening/early
overnight as main mid-level wave and associated sfc reflection ride
up a lingering convergent trough axis now in place along/near the
Route 65 corridor. Due to the slight eastward shift in expected sfc
low track...heaviest rains overnight will likely remain focused east
of the KC Metro...while areas along and west of the highway 71 and
I-35 corridors should be able to breath a sigh of relief. Obviously
this can all change...and evening/overnight shifts will have to
monitor trends. At last count...28 forecast points on area rivers and
streams are in...or expected to reach flood stage. Any slight
movement east or west of main QPF axis later tonight may have impacts
on forecasted crest heights for several locations (i.e. Mosby, MO).

Main wave to move through during the early morning which should lead
to a gradual drying trend towards daybreak. Much of tomorrow looks to
remain dry however cannot rule out developing shwrs/storms across far
northwest MO/northeast KS by late afternoon as main mid-level wave
moves through the Central Plains. As this feature nears...expect wind
fields to increase as confluent flow on east side of trough axis glances
our area. Main limiting factor will be a fairly strong cap which if
it can break...a few strong to severe storms will be possible.

Main cold front associated with aforementioned system to move in
during the early morning hrs on Wednesday. Models have been
consistent in their suggestion that feature will stall across
northern portions of the fcst area...with boundary then acting as a
mechanism for renewed shwr/storm development through the middle
stages of the work week. With zonal flow prevailing aloft...no real
signs for enhanced winds thus overall severe threat looks minimal at
this vantage point. Heading into the latter stages of the work week
and next weekend...upper-level pattern looks blocky once again with
next large scale wave stalling over the eastern Rockies and High
Plains. GFS advertises a large upper low spinning across central
Kansas with the ECMWF showing a similar (open wave) solution.
Regardless...unsettled wx pattern looks like its here to stay.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A couple of waves of activity will affect the area through the
afternoon and evening hours. The first is a band of light
precipitation which will continue to move over the terminal sites
from the southwest. Ceilings may be reduced periodically during this
time until 20Z. Activity should taper off during the mid-afternoon
hours with improving ceilings as the afternoon progresses. The final
round of precipitation will then develop by the early evening hours.
Activity should remain in place until early Monday morning, though
ceiling heights should remain VFR. Dry air will then filter in toward
the end of the forecast period with overcast skies gradually
dissipating.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 242026
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
326 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Severe threat east of Route 65 should come to an end in the next few
hrs as modest instability axis continues to build east into east-
central and northeastern Missouri. Beyond that...main concerns remain
focused on ongoing moderate to heavy rainfall this evening with
regional radar mosaic showing the third and final blow developing
over northern Oklahoma this afternoon. Current thinking is this
activity will begin tracking northward later this evening/early
overnight as main mid-level wave and associated sfc reflection ride
up a lingering convergent trough axis now in place along/near the
Route 65 corridor. Due to the slight eastward shift in expected sfc
low track...heaviest rains overnight will likely remain focused east
of the KC Metro...while areas along and west of the highway 71 and
I-35 corridors should be able to breath a sigh of relief. Obviously
this can all change...and evening/overnight shifts will have to
monitor trends. At last count...28 forecast points on area rivers and
streams are in...or expected to reach flood stage. Any slight
movement east or west of main QPF axis later tonight may have impacts
on forecasted crest heights for several locations (i.e. Mosby, MO).

Main wave to move through during the early morning which should lead
to a gradual drying trend towards daybreak. Much of tomorrow looks to
remain dry however cannot rule out developing shwrs/storms across far
northwest MO/northeast KS by late afternoon as main mid-level wave
moves through the Central Plains. As this feature nears...expect wind
fields to increase as confluent flow on east side of trough axis glances
our area. Main limiting factor will be a fairly strong cap which if
it can break...a few strong to severe storms will be possible.

Main cold front associated with aforementioned system to move in
during the early morning hrs on Wednesday. Models have been
consistent in their suggestion that feature will stall across
northern portions of the fcst area...with boundary then acting as a
mechanism for renewed shwr/storm development through the middle
stages of the work week. With zonal flow prevailing aloft...no real
signs for enhanced winds thus overall severe threat looks minimal at
this vantage point. Heading into the latter stages of the work week
and next weekend...upper-level pattern looks blocky once again with
next large scale wave stalling over the eastern Rockies and High
Plains. GFS advertises a large upper low spinning across central
Kansas with the ECMWF showing a similar (open wave) solution.
Regardless...unsettled wx pattern looks like its here to stay.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A couple of waves of activity will affect the area through the
afternoon and evening hours. The first is a band of light
precipitation which will continue to move over the terminal sites
from the southwest. Ceilings may be reduced periodically during this
time until 20Z. Activity should taper off during the mid-afternoon
hours with improving ceilings as the afternoon progresses. The final
round of precipitation will then develop by the early evening hours.
Activity should remain in place until early Monday morning, though
ceiling heights should remain VFR. Dry air will then filter in toward
the end of the forecast period with overcast skies gradually
dissipating.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KLSX 241859
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
159 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop in
the unstable airmass this afternoon ahead of the main band of rain
and storms that is aligned north to south from near IRK to
SGF. Initial tornado threat will be with the MCV structure that is
currently moving north-northeast from Sedalia to Kirksville the
next few hours. Perhaps this activity will skirt our western CWA,
but the larger threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will
arrive a bit later this afternoon and evening. A strong shortwave
will lift northeast across the region with an arcing band of
thunderstorms accompanying it. The enviroment will be supportive
of embedded mesovortices and short lived tornadoes as low level
shear and helicity values will increase as the surface wind begins
to back to the south-southeast as low pressure forms to our west.
This activity should be progressive and therefore the threat of
flash flooding remains low in our CWA.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Memorial Day through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Memorial Day still looks dry as subsidence is expected behind
tonights system. Temperatures should be quite mild with some
sunshine expected. The dry weather will not last long thought as
next shortwave will move through the area Monday night and Tuesday
morning bringing the area another round of showers and
thunderstorms. Timing of convection has me doubting we see much
severe weather on Tuesday.

The pattern remains active the remainder of the week and straight
into next weekend. Chance of thunderstorms each day with mild
temperatures. Severe weather chances will depend on timing of
individual shortwaves and available instability/shear.

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Gusty winds will persist into the evening with wind gusts around
25 kts. Scattered SH/TS are possible this afternoon and this
evening ahead of a broader area of SH/TS which will move through
the region tonight. After the rain begins and ceilings have
deteriorated to MVFR later tonight, they will probably not improve
to VFR until after daybreak tomorrow. Initially southeast to south
winds at TAF issuance will veer and become southwesterly between
25/09z-25/12z, then back and become southerly just beyond the end
of the valid TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 241859
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
159 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop in
the unstable airmass this afternoon ahead of the main band of rain
and storms that is aligned north to south from near IRK to
SGF. Initial tornado threat will be with the MCV structure that is
currently moving north-northeast from Sedalia to Kirksville the
next few hours. Perhaps this activity will skirt our western CWA,
but the larger threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will
arrive a bit later this afternoon and evening. A strong shortwave
will lift northeast across the region with an arcing band of
thunderstorms accompanying it. The enviroment will be supportive
of embedded mesovortices and short lived tornadoes as low level
shear and helicity values will increase as the surface wind begins
to back to the south-southeast as low pressure forms to our west.
This activity should be progressive and therefore the threat of
flash flooding remains low in our CWA.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Memorial Day through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Memorial Day still looks dry as subsidence is expected behind
tonights system. Temperatures should be quite mild with some
sunshine expected. The dry weather will not last long thought as
next shortwave will move through the area Monday night and Tuesday
morning bringing the area another round of showers and
thunderstorms. Timing of convection has me doubting we see much
severe weather on Tuesday.

The pattern remains active the remainder of the week and straight
into next weekend. Chance of thunderstorms each day with mild
temperatures. Severe weather chances will depend on timing of
individual shortwaves and available instability/shear.

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Gusty winds will persist into the evening with wind gusts around
25 kts. Scattered SH/TS are possible this afternoon and this
evening ahead of a broader area of SH/TS which will move through
the region tonight. After the rain begins and ceilings have
deteriorated to MVFR later tonight, they will probably not improve
to VFR until after daybreak tomorrow. Initially southeast to south
winds at TAF issuance will veer and become southwesterly between
25/09z-25/12z, then back and become southerly just beyond the end
of the valid TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 241802
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
102 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

...Potential for Flooding and Severe Weather this Afternoon and
Evening...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Additional rounds of showers along with the development of thunderstorms
are expected as we head into this afternoon and evening.

Showers at midday were focused along the Highway 65 corridor in
association with a weak shortwave trough lifting north across
eastern Kansas. Expect this activity to train northward into the
afternoon and remain focused along and west of the Highway 65
corridor. Expect a gradual increase in intensity in this
convection as the air mass becomes more unstable to the east. The
primary flood risk into the afternoon will be along and west of
the Highway 65 corridor within the Flash Flood Watch area.

Another more potent shortwave trough was lifting north from
northern Texas. Short term models bring this feature northward into
the Ozarks and southern Missouri late this afternoon and evening.
Expect widespread convection to develop ahead of this system and
spread north northeast into southern Missouri from mid afternoon
into the evening hours.

Low level shear will increase with this approaching shortwave with
0-6 KM bulk shear near 40 kts with shear vectors oriented to the
north northeast. Meanwhile continued low level moisture advection
and modest surface heating will result in some destabilization this
afternoon with mixed layer CAPE possibly approaching 1000 J/KG
across south central Missouri. In addition...short term models
prog low level CAPE values potentially up to around 100 J/KG.

The approaching shortwave coupled with the increasing shear and
at least modest destabilization may be enough to trigger isolated
severe storms with locally damaging winds and possibly a an
isolated tornado. The overall risk for severe weather is slight
but aforementioned parameters to support the potential. The
primary time frame for potential severe weather will be between 3
and 10 PM.

The flooding risk and possible expansion of the Flash Flood
Watch will be evaluated farther east into south central Missouri
where heavy will develop later today and tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Light to moderate rain had moved into southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri with rainfall rates approaching and 3/4 to 1 inch
per hour. A strong low level jet and ample deep layer moisture
with PW values around 1.5" were noted on the 00z SGF sounding.
Models continue to bring increasing moisture with PW`s up to 2"
across the region through most of today. As a result, flooding was
ongoing in portions of southeastern Kansas and additional flooding
is expected through today as rain continues to develop across
Oklahoma and spread into the region.

There will also be a limited risk for some winds gust in excess of
50mph with any line segments that bow towards the north or
northeast as they will be able to take advantage of the 0-3km bulk
shear values around 35-40kts. If instability were to become a
little stronger than currently expected the winds may be a bit
stronger producing an elevated severe storm risk.

The band of heaviest rainfall was just east of Joplin early this
morning and should continue to slide slowly east this morning.
Still thinking though that the best chances for heavy rain and
flooding resides west of Highway 65 and will continue the Flash
Flood Watch currently out through the day today and tonight into
Monday morning.

Rainfall totals between 2-3" are still expected with some local
areas exceeding the 3" mark possible. With continued southerly
winds, warm temperatures in the 70s will continue today despite the
rain and cloud cover. With the WAA and moisture advection
continuing overnight, tonight`s lows will fall only slightly into
the 60s.

Additional rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected late
today and into tonight as another shortwave swings around the
upper low over the plains and another LLJ impinges on the Ozarks
region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Models have hinted the last few runs for a potential dry period
from Monday morning through around sunset as the region gets dry
slotted. At this point see no reason to dispute this though a few
light showers or sprinkles may occur. This may be a welcome break
in the rain just as another upper level wave moves across the
plains and brings the next round of rain into the Ozarks for the
overnight hours Monday night into Tuesday morning. This storm
system looks as though it will affect areas generally east of
Highway 65 however. The rainfall amounts with this next system may
be enough to produce another round of flooding to the east of
Highway 65 during this period, but held off on any headlines until
we see what the current system does and what models do for the
east with the next run.

For the remainder of the week and into next weekend, several more
rounds of rain are expected on a daily basis as the upper level
pattern remains active and the surface and mid level flow continue
to bring moisture into the region from the Gulf. In all, the week
ahead looks to be a cloudy, wet, and dreary one.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A series of disturbances will continue to move through the region
through early Monday. At times, widespread showers are expected
over all three terminals. Thunderstorms are not entirely out of
the question, however, given modest instability widespread thunder
is not anticipated. LLWS will become an increasing concern again
for a few hours as LLJ increases this evening.

MVFR conditions across all terminals for CIG. JLN VIS has been and
will likely drop off into MVFR range throughout the afternoon.
Respectively, all terminals may drop into IFR range, but
confidence regarding timing is not high at the moment.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-
     077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-
     101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Frye








000
FXUS63 KLSX 241756
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1256 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Will see an gradual increase in rain chances today...particularly
over the western and northern parts of the CWA as the upper ridge
moves off to the east which will allow for southwesterly upper flow
to establish itself over the area.  Large area of rain over central
and western Missouri is being generated in an area of strong low
level moisture convergence under the broad area of upper level
ascent.  This low level moisture convergence will shift eastward
today and is being picked up well by the 00Z NMM WRF.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

(Tonight through Tuesday)

The NAM has been the most consistent of the models as of late.   A
notable shortwave will move across the area tonight which will bring
stronger ascent along with strong low moisture convergence ahead of
it.  Will continue with likely or categorical PoPs over the entire
area.  Then Memorial Day still looks mostly dry as subsidence sets
in behind aforementioned shortwave trough.  Will keep high chance
and likely PoPs on Monday night as the next shortwave trough moves
across the area.  Will also keep likely PoPs on Tuesday as yet
another shortwave moves across the area.

Will stick closer to the NAM MOS guidance for temperatures based on
model preference.

(Wednesday through next Saturday)

Will continue to go with chances of showers and thunderstorms for
most of the extended part of the forecast as a series of shortwaves
moves across the area.  A quasi-stationary front will over the area
which is typical for late May and temperatures will be determined be
what side the front is on.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Gusty winds will persist into the evening with wind gusts around
25 kts. Scattered SH/TS are possible this afternoon and this
evening ahead of a broader area of SH/TS which will move through
the region tonight. After the rain begins and ceilings have
deteriorated to MVFR later tonight, they will probably not improve
to VFR until after daybreak tomorrow. Initially southeast to south
winds at TAF issuance will veer and become southwesterly between
25/09z-25/12z, then back and become southerly just beyond the end
of the valid TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 241756
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1256 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Will see an gradual increase in rain chances today...particularly
over the western and northern parts of the CWA as the upper ridge
moves off to the east which will allow for southwesterly upper flow
to establish itself over the area.  Large area of rain over central
and western Missouri is being generated in an area of strong low
level moisture convergence under the broad area of upper level
ascent.  This low level moisture convergence will shift eastward
today and is being picked up well by the 00Z NMM WRF.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

(Tonight through Tuesday)

The NAM has been the most consistent of the models as of late.   A
notable shortwave will move across the area tonight which will bring
stronger ascent along with strong low moisture convergence ahead of
it.  Will continue with likely or categorical PoPs over the entire
area.  Then Memorial Day still looks mostly dry as subsidence sets
in behind aforementioned shortwave trough.  Will keep high chance
and likely PoPs on Monday night as the next shortwave trough moves
across the area.  Will also keep likely PoPs on Tuesday as yet
another shortwave moves across the area.

Will stick closer to the NAM MOS guidance for temperatures based on
model preference.

(Wednesday through next Saturday)

Will continue to go with chances of showers and thunderstorms for
most of the extended part of the forecast as a series of shortwaves
moves across the area.  A quasi-stationary front will over the area
which is typical for late May and temperatures will be determined be
what side the front is on.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Gusty winds will persist into the evening with wind gusts around
25 kts. Scattered SH/TS are possible this afternoon and this
evening ahead of a broader area of SH/TS which will move through
the region tonight. After the rain begins and ceilings have
deteriorated to MVFR later tonight, they will probably not improve
to VFR until after daybreak tomorrow. Initially southeast to south
winds at TAF issuance will veer and become southwesterly between
25/09z-25/12z, then back and become southerly just beyond the end
of the valid TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 241756
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1256 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Will see an gradual increase in rain chances today...particularly
over the western and northern parts of the CWA as the upper ridge
moves off to the east which will allow for southwesterly upper flow
to establish itself over the area.  Large area of rain over central
and western Missouri is being generated in an area of strong low
level moisture convergence under the broad area of upper level
ascent.  This low level moisture convergence will shift eastward
today and is being picked up well by the 00Z NMM WRF.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

(Tonight through Tuesday)

The NAM has been the most consistent of the models as of late.   A
notable shortwave will move across the area tonight which will bring
stronger ascent along with strong low moisture convergence ahead of
it.  Will continue with likely or categorical PoPs over the entire
area.  Then Memorial Day still looks mostly dry as subsidence sets
in behind aforementioned shortwave trough.  Will keep high chance
and likely PoPs on Monday night as the next shortwave trough moves
across the area.  Will also keep likely PoPs on Tuesday as yet
another shortwave moves across the area.

Will stick closer to the NAM MOS guidance for temperatures based on
model preference.

(Wednesday through next Saturday)

Will continue to go with chances of showers and thunderstorms for
most of the extended part of the forecast as a series of shortwaves
moves across the area.  A quasi-stationary front will over the area
which is typical for late May and temperatures will be determined be
what side the front is on.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Gusty winds will persist into the evening with wind gusts around
25 kts. Scattered SH/TS are possible this afternoon and this
evening ahead of a broader area of SH/TS which will move through
the region tonight. After the rain begins and ceilings have
deteriorated to MVFR later tonight, they will probably not improve
to VFR until after daybreak tomorrow. Initially southeast to south
winds at TAF issuance will veer and become southwesterly between
25/09z-25/12z, then back and become southerly just beyond the end
of the valid TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 241756
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1256 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Will see an gradual increase in rain chances today...particularly
over the western and northern parts of the CWA as the upper ridge
moves off to the east which will allow for southwesterly upper flow
to establish itself over the area.  Large area of rain over central
and western Missouri is being generated in an area of strong low
level moisture convergence under the broad area of upper level
ascent.  This low level moisture convergence will shift eastward
today and is being picked up well by the 00Z NMM WRF.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

(Tonight through Tuesday)

The NAM has been the most consistent of the models as of late.   A
notable shortwave will move across the area tonight which will bring
stronger ascent along with strong low moisture convergence ahead of
it.  Will continue with likely or categorical PoPs over the entire
area.  Then Memorial Day still looks mostly dry as subsidence sets
in behind aforementioned shortwave trough.  Will keep high chance
and likely PoPs on Monday night as the next shortwave trough moves
across the area.  Will also keep likely PoPs on Tuesday as yet
another shortwave moves across the area.

Will stick closer to the NAM MOS guidance for temperatures based on
model preference.

(Wednesday through next Saturday)

Will continue to go with chances of showers and thunderstorms for
most of the extended part of the forecast as a series of shortwaves
moves across the area.  A quasi-stationary front will over the area
which is typical for late May and temperatures will be determined be
what side the front is on.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Gusty winds will persist into the evening with wind gusts around
25 kts. Scattered SH/TS are possible this afternoon and this
evening ahead of a broader area of SH/TS which will move through
the region tonight. After the rain begins and ceilings have
deteriorated to MVFR later tonight, they will probably not improve
to VFR until after daybreak tomorrow. Initially southeast to south
winds at TAF issuance will veer and become southwesterly between
25/09z-25/12z, then back and become southerly just beyond the end
of the valid TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 241756
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1256 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Will see an gradual increase in rain chances today...particularly
over the western and northern parts of the CWA as the upper ridge
moves off to the east which will allow for southwesterly upper flow
to establish itself over the area.  Large area of rain over central
and western Missouri is being generated in an area of strong low
level moisture convergence under the broad area of upper level
ascent.  This low level moisture convergence will shift eastward
today and is being picked up well by the 00Z NMM WRF.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

(Tonight through Tuesday)

The NAM has been the most consistent of the models as of late.   A
notable shortwave will move across the area tonight which will bring
stronger ascent along with strong low moisture convergence ahead of
it.  Will continue with likely or categorical PoPs over the entire
area.  Then Memorial Day still looks mostly dry as subsidence sets
in behind aforementioned shortwave trough.  Will keep high chance
and likely PoPs on Monday night as the next shortwave trough moves
across the area.  Will also keep likely PoPs on Tuesday as yet
another shortwave moves across the area.

Will stick closer to the NAM MOS guidance for temperatures based on
model preference.

(Wednesday through next Saturday)

Will continue to go with chances of showers and thunderstorms for
most of the extended part of the forecast as a series of shortwaves
moves across the area.  A quasi-stationary front will over the area
which is typical for late May and temperatures will be determined be
what side the front is on.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Gusty winds will persist into the evening with wind gusts around
25 kts. Scattered SH/TS are possible this afternoon and this
evening ahead of a broader area of SH/TS which will move through
the region tonight. After the rain begins and ceilings have
deteriorated to MVFR later tonight, they will probably not improve
to VFR until after daybreak tomorrow. Initially southeast to south
winds at TAF issuance will veer and become southwesterly between
25/09z-25/12z, then back and become southerly just beyond the end
of the valid TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 241756
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1256 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Will see an gradual increase in rain chances today...particularly
over the western and northern parts of the CWA as the upper ridge
moves off to the east which will allow for southwesterly upper flow
to establish itself over the area.  Large area of rain over central
and western Missouri is being generated in an area of strong low
level moisture convergence under the broad area of upper level
ascent.  This low level moisture convergence will shift eastward
today and is being picked up well by the 00Z NMM WRF.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

(Tonight through Tuesday)

The NAM has been the most consistent of the models as of late.   A
notable shortwave will move across the area tonight which will bring
stronger ascent along with strong low moisture convergence ahead of
it.  Will continue with likely or categorical PoPs over the entire
area.  Then Memorial Day still looks mostly dry as subsidence sets
in behind aforementioned shortwave trough.  Will keep high chance
and likely PoPs on Monday night as the next shortwave trough moves
across the area.  Will also keep likely PoPs on Tuesday as yet
another shortwave moves across the area.

Will stick closer to the NAM MOS guidance for temperatures based on
model preference.

(Wednesday through next Saturday)

Will continue to go with chances of showers and thunderstorms for
most of the extended part of the forecast as a series of shortwaves
moves across the area.  A quasi-stationary front will over the area
which is typical for late May and temperatures will be determined be
what side the front is on.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Gusty winds will persist into the evening with wind gusts around
25 kts. Scattered SH/TS are possible this afternoon and this
evening ahead of a broader area of SH/TS which will move through
the region tonight. After the rain begins and ceilings have
deteriorated to MVFR later tonight, they will probably not improve
to VFR until after daybreak tomorrow. Initially southeast to south
winds at TAF issuance will veer and become southwesterly between
25/09z-25/12z, then back and become southerly just beyond the end
of the valid TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 241742
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1242 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

...Potential for Flooding and Severe Weather this Afternoon and Evening...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Additional rounds of showers along with the development of thunderstorms
are expected as we head into this afternoon and evening.

Showers at midday were focused along the Highway 65 corridor in
association with a weak shortwave trough lifting north across
eastern Kansas. Expect this activity to train northward into the
afternoon and remain focused along and west of the Highway 65
corridor. Expect a gradual increase in intensity in this
convection as the air mass becomes more unstable to the east. The
primary flood risk into the afternoon will be along and west of
the Highway 65 corridor within the Flash Flood Watch area.

Another more potent shortwave trough was lifting north from
northern Texas. Short term models bring this feature northward into
the Ozarks and southern Missouri late this afternoon and evening.
Expect widespread convection to develop ahead of this system and
spread north northeast into southern Missouri from mid afternoon
into the evening hours.

Low level shear will increase with this approaching shortwave with
0-6 KM bulk shear near 40 kts with shear vectors oriented to the
north northeast. Meanwhile continued low level moisture advection
and modest surface heating will result in some destabilization this
afternoon with mixed layer CAPE possibly approaching 1000 J/KG
across south central Missouri. In addition...short term models
prog low level CAPE values potentially up to around 100 J/KG.

The approaching shortwave coupled with the increasing shear and
at least modest destabilization may be enough to trigger isolated
severe storms with locally damaging winds and possibly a an
isolated tornado. The overall risk for severe weather is slight
but aforementioned parameters to support the potential. The
primary time frame for potential severe weather will be between 3
and 10 PM.

The flooding risk and possible expansion of the Flash Flood
Watch will be evaluated farther east into south central Missouri
where heavy will develop later today and tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Light to moderate rain had moved into southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri with rainfall rates approaching and 3/4 to 1 inch
per hour. A strong low level jet and ample deep layer moisture
with PW values around 1.5" were noted on the 00z SGF sounding.
Models continue to bring increasing moisture with PW`s up to 2"
across the region through most of today. As a result, flooding was
ongoing in portions of southeastern Kansas and additional flooding
is expected through today as rain continues to develop across
Oklahoma and spread into the region.

There will also be a limited risk for some winds gust in excess of
50mph with any line segments that bow towards the north or
northeast as they will be able to take advantage of the 0-3km bulk
shear values around 35-40kts. If instability were to become a
little stronger than currently expected the winds may be a bit
stronger producing an elevated severe storm risk.

The band of heaviest rainfall was just east of Joplin early this
morning and should continue to slide slowly east this morning.
Still thinking though that the best chances for heavy rain and
flooding resides west of Highway 65 and will continue the Flash
Flood Watch currently out through the day today and tonight into
Monday morning.

Rainfall totals between 2-3" are still expected with some local
areas exceeding the 3" mark possible. With continued southerly
winds, warm temperatures in the 70s will continue today despite the
rain and cloud cover. With the WAA and moisture advection
continuing overnight, tonight`s lows will fall only slightly into
the 60s.

Additional rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected late
today and into tonight as another shortwave swings around the
upper low over the plains and another LLJ impinges on the Ozarks
region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Models have hinted the last few runs for a potential dry period
from Monday morning through around sunset as the region gets dry
slotted. At this point see no reason to dispute this though a few
light showers or sprinkles may occur. This may be a welcome break
in the rain just as another upper level wave moves across the
plains and brings the next round of rain into the Ozarks for the
overnight hours Monday night into Tuesday morning. This storm
system looks as though it will affect areas generally east of
Highway 65 however. The rainfall amounts with this next system may
be enough to produce another round of flooding to the east of
Highway 65 during this period, but held off on any headlines until
we see what the current system does and what models do for the
east with the next run.

For the remainder of the week and into next weekend, several more
rounds of rain are expected on a daily basis as the upper level
pattern remains active and the surface and mid level flow continue
to bring moisture into the region from the Gulf. In all, the week
ahead looks to be a cloudy, wet, and dreary one.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The storm system moving across the region will continue to bring
MVFR to occasionally IFR ceilings and visibilities to terminals
across the Ozarks today and overnight tonight. Surface winds will
be gusty at times from the south especially in the vicinity of
Isolated thunderstorms. Heavy rain will at times limit
visibilities to MVFR/IFR. Some improvement to VFR is expected by
late morning Monday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-
     077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-
     101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch






000
FXUS63 KSGF 241742
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1242 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

...Potential for Flooding and Severe Weather this Afternoon and Evening...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Additional rounds of showers along with the development of thunderstorms
are expected as we head into this afternoon and evening.

Showers at midday were focused along the Highway 65 corridor in
association with a weak shortwave trough lifting north across
eastern Kansas. Expect this activity to train northward into the
afternoon and remain focused along and west of the Highway 65
corridor. Expect a gradual increase in intensity in this
convection as the air mass becomes more unstable to the east. The
primary flood risk into the afternoon will be along and west of
the Highway 65 corridor within the Flash Flood Watch area.

Another more potent shortwave trough was lifting north from
northern Texas. Short term models bring this feature northward into
the Ozarks and southern Missouri late this afternoon and evening.
Expect widespread convection to develop ahead of this system and
spread north northeast into southern Missouri from mid afternoon
into the evening hours.

Low level shear will increase with this approaching shortwave with
0-6 KM bulk shear near 40 kts with shear vectors oriented to the
north northeast. Meanwhile continued low level moisture advection
and modest surface heating will result in some destabilization this
afternoon with mixed layer CAPE possibly approaching 1000 J/KG
across south central Missouri. In addition...short term models
prog low level CAPE values potentially up to around 100 J/KG.

The approaching shortwave coupled with the increasing shear and
at least modest destabilization may be enough to trigger isolated
severe storms with locally damaging winds and possibly a an
isolated tornado. The overall risk for severe weather is slight
but aforementioned parameters to support the potential. The
primary time frame for potential severe weather will be between 3
and 10 PM.

The flooding risk and possible expansion of the Flash Flood
Watch will be evaluated farther east into south central Missouri
where heavy will develop later today and tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Light to moderate rain had moved into southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri with rainfall rates approaching and 3/4 to 1 inch
per hour. A strong low level jet and ample deep layer moisture
with PW values around 1.5" were noted on the 00z SGF sounding.
Models continue to bring increasing moisture with PW`s up to 2"
across the region through most of today. As a result, flooding was
ongoing in portions of southeastern Kansas and additional flooding
is expected through today as rain continues to develop across
Oklahoma and spread into the region.

There will also be a limited risk for some winds gust in excess of
50mph with any line segments that bow towards the north or
northeast as they will be able to take advantage of the 0-3km bulk
shear values around 35-40kts. If instability were to become a
little stronger than currently expected the winds may be a bit
stronger producing an elevated severe storm risk.

The band of heaviest rainfall was just east of Joplin early this
morning and should continue to slide slowly east this morning.
Still thinking though that the best chances for heavy rain and
flooding resides west of Highway 65 and will continue the Flash
Flood Watch currently out through the day today and tonight into
Monday morning.

Rainfall totals between 2-3" are still expected with some local
areas exceeding the 3" mark possible. With continued southerly
winds, warm temperatures in the 70s will continue today despite the
rain and cloud cover. With the WAA and moisture advection
continuing overnight, tonight`s lows will fall only slightly into
the 60s.

Additional rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected late
today and into tonight as another shortwave swings around the
upper low over the plains and another LLJ impinges on the Ozarks
region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Models have hinted the last few runs for a potential dry period
from Monday morning through around sunset as the region gets dry
slotted. At this point see no reason to dispute this though a few
light showers or sprinkles may occur. This may be a welcome break
in the rain just as another upper level wave moves across the
plains and brings the next round of rain into the Ozarks for the
overnight hours Monday night into Tuesday morning. This storm
system looks as though it will affect areas generally east of
Highway 65 however. The rainfall amounts with this next system may
be enough to produce another round of flooding to the east of
Highway 65 during this period, but held off on any headlines until
we see what the current system does and what models do for the
east with the next run.

For the remainder of the week and into next weekend, several more
rounds of rain are expected on a daily basis as the upper level
pattern remains active and the surface and mid level flow continue
to bring moisture into the region from the Gulf. In all, the week
ahead looks to be a cloudy, wet, and dreary one.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The storm system moving across the region will continue to bring
MVFR to occasionally IFR ceilings and visibilities to terminals
across the Ozarks today and overnight tonight. Surface winds will
be gusty at times from the south especially in the vicinity of
Isolated thunderstorms. Heavy rain will at times limit
visibilities to MVFR/IFR. Some improvement to VFR is expected by
late morning Monday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-
     077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-
     101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch







000
FXUS63 KSGF 241742
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1242 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

...Potential for Flooding and Severe Weather this Afternoon and Evening...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Additional rounds of showers along with the development of thunderstorms
are expected as we head into this afternoon and evening.

Showers at midday were focused along the Highway 65 corridor in
association with a weak shortwave trough lifting north across
eastern Kansas. Expect this activity to train northward into the
afternoon and remain focused along and west of the Highway 65
corridor. Expect a gradual increase in intensity in this
convection as the air mass becomes more unstable to the east. The
primary flood risk into the afternoon will be along and west of
the Highway 65 corridor within the Flash Flood Watch area.

Another more potent shortwave trough was lifting north from
northern Texas. Short term models bring this feature northward into
the Ozarks and southern Missouri late this afternoon and evening.
Expect widespread convection to develop ahead of this system and
spread north northeast into southern Missouri from mid afternoon
into the evening hours.

Low level shear will increase with this approaching shortwave with
0-6 KM bulk shear near 40 kts with shear vectors oriented to the
north northeast. Meanwhile continued low level moisture advection
and modest surface heating will result in some destabilization this
afternoon with mixed layer CAPE possibly approaching 1000 J/KG
across south central Missouri. In addition...short term models
prog low level CAPE values potentially up to around 100 J/KG.

The approaching shortwave coupled with the increasing shear and
at least modest destabilization may be enough to trigger isolated
severe storms with locally damaging winds and possibly a an
isolated tornado. The overall risk for severe weather is slight
but aforementioned parameters to support the potential. The
primary time frame for potential severe weather will be between 3
and 10 PM.

The flooding risk and possible expansion of the Flash Flood
Watch will be evaluated farther east into south central Missouri
where heavy will develop later today and tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Light to moderate rain had moved into southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri with rainfall rates approaching and 3/4 to 1 inch
per hour. A strong low level jet and ample deep layer moisture
with PW values around 1.5" were noted on the 00z SGF sounding.
Models continue to bring increasing moisture with PW`s up to 2"
across the region through most of today. As a result, flooding was
ongoing in portions of southeastern Kansas and additional flooding
is expected through today as rain continues to develop across
Oklahoma and spread into the region.

There will also be a limited risk for some winds gust in excess of
50mph with any line segments that bow towards the north or
northeast as they will be able to take advantage of the 0-3km bulk
shear values around 35-40kts. If instability were to become a
little stronger than currently expected the winds may be a bit
stronger producing an elevated severe storm risk.

The band of heaviest rainfall was just east of Joplin early this
morning and should continue to slide slowly east this morning.
Still thinking though that the best chances for heavy rain and
flooding resides west of Highway 65 and will continue the Flash
Flood Watch currently out through the day today and tonight into
Monday morning.

Rainfall totals between 2-3" are still expected with some local
areas exceeding the 3" mark possible. With continued southerly
winds, warm temperatures in the 70s will continue today despite the
rain and cloud cover. With the WAA and moisture advection
continuing overnight, tonight`s lows will fall only slightly into
the 60s.

Additional rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected late
today and into tonight as another shortwave swings around the
upper low over the plains and another LLJ impinges on the Ozarks
region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Models have hinted the last few runs for a potential dry period
from Monday morning through around sunset as the region gets dry
slotted. At this point see no reason to dispute this though a few
light showers or sprinkles may occur. This may be a welcome break
in the rain just as another upper level wave moves across the
plains and brings the next round of rain into the Ozarks for the
overnight hours Monday night into Tuesday morning. This storm
system looks as though it will affect areas generally east of
Highway 65 however. The rainfall amounts with this next system may
be enough to produce another round of flooding to the east of
Highway 65 during this period, but held off on any headlines until
we see what the current system does and what models do for the
east with the next run.

For the remainder of the week and into next weekend, several more
rounds of rain are expected on a daily basis as the upper level
pattern remains active and the surface and mid level flow continue
to bring moisture into the region from the Gulf. In all, the week
ahead looks to be a cloudy, wet, and dreary one.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The storm system moving across the region will continue to bring
MVFR to occasionally IFR ceilings and visibilities to terminals
across the Ozarks today and overnight tonight. Surface winds will
be gusty at times from the south especially in the vicinity of
Isolated thunderstorms. Heavy rain will at times limit
visibilities to MVFR/IFR. Some improvement to VFR is expected by
late morning Monday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-
     077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-
     101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch






000
FXUS63 KSGF 241742
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1242 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

...Potential for Flooding and Severe Weather this Afternoon and Evening...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Additional rounds of showers along with the development of thunderstorms
are expected as we head into this afternoon and evening.

Showers at midday were focused along the Highway 65 corridor in
association with a weak shortwave trough lifting north across
eastern Kansas. Expect this activity to train northward into the
afternoon and remain focused along and west of the Highway 65
corridor. Expect a gradual increase in intensity in this
convection as the air mass becomes more unstable to the east. The
primary flood risk into the afternoon will be along and west of
the Highway 65 corridor within the Flash Flood Watch area.

Another more potent shortwave trough was lifting north from
northern Texas. Short term models bring this feature northward into
the Ozarks and southern Missouri late this afternoon and evening.
Expect widespread convection to develop ahead of this system and
spread north northeast into southern Missouri from mid afternoon
into the evening hours.

Low level shear will increase with this approaching shortwave with
0-6 KM bulk shear near 40 kts with shear vectors oriented to the
north northeast. Meanwhile continued low level moisture advection
and modest surface heating will result in some destabilization this
afternoon with mixed layer CAPE possibly approaching 1000 J/KG
across south central Missouri. In addition...short term models
prog low level CAPE values potentially up to around 100 J/KG.

The approaching shortwave coupled with the increasing shear and
at least modest destabilization may be enough to trigger isolated
severe storms with locally damaging winds and possibly a an
isolated tornado. The overall risk for severe weather is slight
but aforementioned parameters to support the potential. The
primary time frame for potential severe weather will be between 3
and 10 PM.

The flooding risk and possible expansion of the Flash Flood
Watch will be evaluated farther east into south central Missouri
where heavy will develop later today and tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Light to moderate rain had moved into southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri with rainfall rates approaching and 3/4 to 1 inch
per hour. A strong low level jet and ample deep layer moisture
with PW values around 1.5" were noted on the 00z SGF sounding.
Models continue to bring increasing moisture with PW`s up to 2"
across the region through most of today. As a result, flooding was
ongoing in portions of southeastern Kansas and additional flooding
is expected through today as rain continues to develop across
Oklahoma and spread into the region.

There will also be a limited risk for some winds gust in excess of
50mph with any line segments that bow towards the north or
northeast as they will be able to take advantage of the 0-3km bulk
shear values around 35-40kts. If instability were to become a
little stronger than currently expected the winds may be a bit
stronger producing an elevated severe storm risk.

The band of heaviest rainfall was just east of Joplin early this
morning and should continue to slide slowly east this morning.
Still thinking though that the best chances for heavy rain and
flooding resides west of Highway 65 and will continue the Flash
Flood Watch currently out through the day today and tonight into
Monday morning.

Rainfall totals between 2-3" are still expected with some local
areas exceeding the 3" mark possible. With continued southerly
winds, warm temperatures in the 70s will continue today despite the
rain and cloud cover. With the WAA and moisture advection
continuing overnight, tonight`s lows will fall only slightly into
the 60s.

Additional rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected late
today and into tonight as another shortwave swings around the
upper low over the plains and another LLJ impinges on the Ozarks
region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Models have hinted the last few runs for a potential dry period
from Monday morning through around sunset as the region gets dry
slotted. At this point see no reason to dispute this though a few
light showers or sprinkles may occur. This may be a welcome break
in the rain just as another upper level wave moves across the
plains and brings the next round of rain into the Ozarks for the
overnight hours Monday night into Tuesday morning. This storm
system looks as though it will affect areas generally east of
Highway 65 however. The rainfall amounts with this next system may
be enough to produce another round of flooding to the east of
Highway 65 during this period, but held off on any headlines until
we see what the current system does and what models do for the
east with the next run.

For the remainder of the week and into next weekend, several more
rounds of rain are expected on a daily basis as the upper level
pattern remains active and the surface and mid level flow continue
to bring moisture into the region from the Gulf. In all, the week
ahead looks to be a cloudy, wet, and dreary one.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The storm system moving across the region will continue to bring
MVFR to occasionally IFR ceilings and visibilities to terminals
across the Ozarks today and overnight tonight. Surface winds will
be gusty at times from the south especially in the vicinity of
Isolated thunderstorms. Heavy rain will at times limit
visibilities to MVFR/IFR. Some improvement to VFR is expected by
late morning Monday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-
     077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-
     101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch






000
FXUS63 KSGF 241742
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1242 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

...Potential for Flooding and Severe Weather this Afternoon and Evening...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Additional rounds of showers along with the development of thunderstorms
are expected as we head into this afternoon and evening.

Showers at midday were focused along the Highway 65 corridor in
association with a weak shortwave trough lifting north across
eastern Kansas. Expect this activity to train northward into the
afternoon and remain focused along and west of the Highway 65
corridor. Expect a gradual increase in intensity in this
convection as the air mass becomes more unstable to the east. The
primary flood risk into the afternoon will be along and west of
the Highway 65 corridor within the Flash Flood Watch area.

Another more potent shortwave trough was lifting north from
northern Texas. Short term models bring this feature northward into
the Ozarks and southern Missouri late this afternoon and evening.
Expect widespread convection to develop ahead of this system and
spread north northeast into southern Missouri from mid afternoon
into the evening hours.

Low level shear will increase with this approaching shortwave with
0-6 KM bulk shear near 40 kts with shear vectors oriented to the
north northeast. Meanwhile continued low level moisture advection
and modest surface heating will result in some destabilization this
afternoon with mixed layer CAPE possibly approaching 1000 J/KG
across south central Missouri. In addition...short term models
prog low level CAPE values potentially up to around 100 J/KG.

The approaching shortwave coupled with the increasing shear and
at least modest destabilization may be enough to trigger isolated
severe storms with locally damaging winds and possibly a an
isolated tornado. The overall risk for severe weather is slight
but aforementioned parameters to support the potential. The
primary time frame for potential severe weather will be between 3
and 10 PM.

The flooding risk and possible expansion of the Flash Flood
Watch will be evaluated farther east into south central Missouri
where heavy will develop later today and tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Light to moderate rain had moved into southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri with rainfall rates approaching and 3/4 to 1 inch
per hour. A strong low level jet and ample deep layer moisture
with PW values around 1.5" were noted on the 00z SGF sounding.
Models continue to bring increasing moisture with PW`s up to 2"
across the region through most of today. As a result, flooding was
ongoing in portions of southeastern Kansas and additional flooding
is expected through today as rain continues to develop across
Oklahoma and spread into the region.

There will also be a limited risk for some winds gust in excess of
50mph with any line segments that bow towards the north or
northeast as they will be able to take advantage of the 0-3km bulk
shear values around 35-40kts. If instability were to become a
little stronger than currently expected the winds may be a bit
stronger producing an elevated severe storm risk.

The band of heaviest rainfall was just east of Joplin early this
morning and should continue to slide slowly east this morning.
Still thinking though that the best chances for heavy rain and
flooding resides west of Highway 65 and will continue the Flash
Flood Watch currently out through the day today and tonight into
Monday morning.

Rainfall totals between 2-3" are still expected with some local
areas exceeding the 3" mark possible. With continued southerly
winds, warm temperatures in the 70s will continue today despite the
rain and cloud cover. With the WAA and moisture advection
continuing overnight, tonight`s lows will fall only slightly into
the 60s.

Additional rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected late
today and into tonight as another shortwave swings around the
upper low over the plains and another LLJ impinges on the Ozarks
region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Models have hinted the last few runs for a potential dry period
from Monday morning through around sunset as the region gets dry
slotted. At this point see no reason to dispute this though a few
light showers or sprinkles may occur. This may be a welcome break
in the rain just as another upper level wave moves across the
plains and brings the next round of rain into the Ozarks for the
overnight hours Monday night into Tuesday morning. This storm
system looks as though it will affect areas generally east of
Highway 65 however. The rainfall amounts with this next system may
be enough to produce another round of flooding to the east of
Highway 65 during this period, but held off on any headlines until
we see what the current system does and what models do for the
east with the next run.

For the remainder of the week and into next weekend, several more
rounds of rain are expected on a daily basis as the upper level
pattern remains active and the surface and mid level flow continue
to bring moisture into the region from the Gulf. In all, the week
ahead looks to be a cloudy, wet, and dreary one.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The storm system moving across the region will continue to bring
MVFR to occasionally IFR ceilings and visibilities to terminals
across the Ozarks today and overnight tonight. Surface winds will
be gusty at times from the south especially in the vicinity of
Isolated thunderstorms. Heavy rain will at times limit
visibilities to MVFR/IFR. Some improvement to VFR is expected by
late morning Monday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-
     077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-
     101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch






000
FXUS63 KSGF 241742
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1242 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

...Potential for Flooding and Severe Weather this Afternoon and Evening...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Additional rounds of showers along with the development of thunderstorms
are expected as we head into this afternoon and evening.

Showers at midday were focused along the Highway 65 corridor in
association with a weak shortwave trough lifting north across
eastern Kansas. Expect this activity to train northward into the
afternoon and remain focused along and west of the Highway 65
corridor. Expect a gradual increase in intensity in this
convection as the air mass becomes more unstable to the east. The
primary flood risk into the afternoon will be along and west of
the Highway 65 corridor within the Flash Flood Watch area.

Another more potent shortwave trough was lifting north from
northern Texas. Short term models bring this feature northward into
the Ozarks and southern Missouri late this afternoon and evening.
Expect widespread convection to develop ahead of this system and
spread north northeast into southern Missouri from mid afternoon
into the evening hours.

Low level shear will increase with this approaching shortwave with
0-6 KM bulk shear near 40 kts with shear vectors oriented to the
north northeast. Meanwhile continued low level moisture advection
and modest surface heating will result in some destabilization this
afternoon with mixed layer CAPE possibly approaching 1000 J/KG
across south central Missouri. In addition...short term models
prog low level CAPE values potentially up to around 100 J/KG.

The approaching shortwave coupled with the increasing shear and
at least modest destabilization may be enough to trigger isolated
severe storms with locally damaging winds and possibly a an
isolated tornado. The overall risk for severe weather is slight
but aforementioned parameters to support the potential. The
primary time frame for potential severe weather will be between 3
and 10 PM.

The flooding risk and possible expansion of the Flash Flood
Watch will be evaluated farther east into south central Missouri
where heavy will develop later today and tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Light to moderate rain had moved into southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri with rainfall rates approaching and 3/4 to 1 inch
per hour. A strong low level jet and ample deep layer moisture
with PW values around 1.5" were noted on the 00z SGF sounding.
Models continue to bring increasing moisture with PW`s up to 2"
across the region through most of today. As a result, flooding was
ongoing in portions of southeastern Kansas and additional flooding
is expected through today as rain continues to develop across
Oklahoma and spread into the region.

There will also be a limited risk for some winds gust in excess of
50mph with any line segments that bow towards the north or
northeast as they will be able to take advantage of the 0-3km bulk
shear values around 35-40kts. If instability were to become a
little stronger than currently expected the winds may be a bit
stronger producing an elevated severe storm risk.

The band of heaviest rainfall was just east of Joplin early this
morning and should continue to slide slowly east this morning.
Still thinking though that the best chances for heavy rain and
flooding resides west of Highway 65 and will continue the Flash
Flood Watch currently out through the day today and tonight into
Monday morning.

Rainfall totals between 2-3" are still expected with some local
areas exceeding the 3" mark possible. With continued southerly
winds, warm temperatures in the 70s will continue today despite the
rain and cloud cover. With the WAA and moisture advection
continuing overnight, tonight`s lows will fall only slightly into
the 60s.

Additional rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected late
today and into tonight as another shortwave swings around the
upper low over the plains and another LLJ impinges on the Ozarks
region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Models have hinted the last few runs for a potential dry period
from Monday morning through around sunset as the region gets dry
slotted. At this point see no reason to dispute this though a few
light showers or sprinkles may occur. This may be a welcome break
in the rain just as another upper level wave moves across the
plains and brings the next round of rain into the Ozarks for the
overnight hours Monday night into Tuesday morning. This storm
system looks as though it will affect areas generally east of
Highway 65 however. The rainfall amounts with this next system may
be enough to produce another round of flooding to the east of
Highway 65 during this period, but held off on any headlines until
we see what the current system does and what models do for the
east with the next run.

For the remainder of the week and into next weekend, several more
rounds of rain are expected on a daily basis as the upper level
pattern remains active and the surface and mid level flow continue
to bring moisture into the region from the Gulf. In all, the week
ahead looks to be a cloudy, wet, and dreary one.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The storm system moving across the region will continue to bring
MVFR to occasionally IFR ceilings and visibilities to terminals
across the Ozarks today and overnight tonight. Surface winds will
be gusty at times from the south especially in the vicinity of
Isolated thunderstorms. Heavy rain will at times limit
visibilities to MVFR/IFR. Some improvement to VFR is expected by
late morning Monday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-
     077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-
     101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch






000
FXUS63 KEAX 241650
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1150 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...Rainfall totals to continue to climb throughout today...

Moderate to heavy rainfall has been falling across the forecast
area early this morning with a bit of drying observed on the
western edge of the main axis of the stratiform rain. Even outside
of some of the better reflectivity echoes on radar this early AM,
drizzle and light rain has still been reported at area
observational sites, along with lowered cloud bases. Despite any
brief window of drying, copious amounts of moisture is still
abundant across the region as the continued moisture feed from the
GoMex remains uninhibited. Impressive PWAT values of 1.54 inches
from TOP`s 00Z sounding lines up fairly well with model soundings,
with elevated values looking to remain in place through early
tonight. The influx of warm, moist air will finally get
interrupted tonight as an upper-level shortwave trough axis moves
through. The upper wave with a reflection at the surface will
tighten up as it crosses the forecast area, and as it moves off
toward the NNE, will take the bulk of the precip with it.
Basically what the forecast is looking like for today through the
holiday tomorrow is continued chances for moderate to heavy
rainfall with thunderstorms possible as the rain transitions to
more of a convective nature, finally beginning to wane as Monday
morning approaches, and quite possibly some decent drying out on
Monday with only slight chances of thunderstorms during the day.
Memorial Day will see mid- to upper-level dry air working its way
into the area and with run after run of model soundings
continuing to indicate a cap remaining in place during the
afternoon, could keep convection from firing up. That said, if the
cap breaks down, noteworthy warming temps and plentiful surface-
based instability that will have moved in, along with respectable
shear values, could allow for some feisty storms to be created.

Next shortwave trough traverses through Monday night into Tuesday,
welcoming back at least chance PoPs to the forecast. For the rest
of the forecast period, unsettled pattern remains locked in place
with perturbation after perturbation trekking through the region
and PWAT values over an inch commonplace through the upcoming
week. This equates to mentionable PoPs throughout the rest of the
forecast period, but doesn`t equate to a washout throughout the
week.

Highs today region-wide should be able to reach into the 70s
despite any cloud cover or rain. Temps tomorrow will reach up into
the upper 70s to lower 80s and while these temps may be welcomed
by some, the caveat is that it`ll feel humid outdoors with
dewpoints well into the 60s. For the rest of the week, 70s and 80s
for highs will be seen each day with lows generally in the upper
50s to 60s throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A couple of waves of activity will affect the area through the
afternoon and evening hours. The first is a band of light
precipitation which will continue to move over the terminal sites
from the southwest. Ceilings may be reduced periodically during this
time until 20Z. Activity should taper off during the mid-afternoon
hours with improving ceilings as the afternoon progresses. The final
round of precipitation will then develop by the early evening hours.
Activity should remain in place until early Monday morning, though
ceiling heights should remain VFR. Dry air will then filter in toward
the end of the forecast period with overcast skies gradually
dissipating.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KEAX 241650
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1150 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...Rainfall totals to continue to climb throughout today...

Moderate to heavy rainfall has been falling across the forecast
area early this morning with a bit of drying observed on the
western edge of the main axis of the stratiform rain. Even outside
of some of the better reflectivity echoes on radar this early AM,
drizzle and light rain has still been reported at area
observational sites, along with lowered cloud bases. Despite any
brief window of drying, copious amounts of moisture is still
abundant across the region as the continued moisture feed from the
GoMex remains uninhibited. Impressive PWAT values of 1.54 inches
from TOP`s 00Z sounding lines up fairly well with model soundings,
with elevated values looking to remain in place through early
tonight. The influx of warm, moist air will finally get
interrupted tonight as an upper-level shortwave trough axis moves
through. The upper wave with a reflection at the surface will
tighten up as it crosses the forecast area, and as it moves off
toward the NNE, will take the bulk of the precip with it.
Basically what the forecast is looking like for today through the
holiday tomorrow is continued chances for moderate to heavy
rainfall with thunderstorms possible as the rain transitions to
more of a convective nature, finally beginning to wane as Monday
morning approaches, and quite possibly some decent drying out on
Monday with only slight chances of thunderstorms during the day.
Memorial Day will see mid- to upper-level dry air working its way
into the area and with run after run of model soundings
continuing to indicate a cap remaining in place during the
afternoon, could keep convection from firing up. That said, if the
cap breaks down, noteworthy warming temps and plentiful surface-
based instability that will have moved in, along with respectable
shear values, could allow for some feisty storms to be created.

Next shortwave trough traverses through Monday night into Tuesday,
welcoming back at least chance PoPs to the forecast. For the rest
of the forecast period, unsettled pattern remains locked in place
with perturbation after perturbation trekking through the region
and PWAT values over an inch commonplace through the upcoming
week. This equates to mentionable PoPs throughout the rest of the
forecast period, but doesn`t equate to a washout throughout the
week.

Highs today region-wide should be able to reach into the 70s
despite any cloud cover or rain. Temps tomorrow will reach up into
the upper 70s to lower 80s and while these temps may be welcomed
by some, the caveat is that it`ll feel humid outdoors with
dewpoints well into the 60s. For the rest of the week, 70s and 80s
for highs will be seen each day with lows generally in the upper
50s to 60s throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A couple of waves of activity will affect the area through the
afternoon and evening hours. The first is a band of light
precipitation which will continue to move over the terminal sites
from the southwest. Ceilings may be reduced periodically during this
time until 20Z. Activity should taper off during the mid-afternoon
hours with improving ceilings as the afternoon progresses. The final
round of precipitation will then develop by the early evening hours.
Activity should remain in place until early Monday morning, though
ceiling heights should remain VFR. Dry air will then filter in toward
the end of the forecast period with overcast skies gradually
dissipating.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 241650
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1150 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...Rainfall totals to continue to climb throughout today...

Moderate to heavy rainfall has been falling across the forecast
area early this morning with a bit of drying observed on the
western edge of the main axis of the stratiform rain. Even outside
of some of the better reflectivity echoes on radar this early AM,
drizzle and light rain has still been reported at area
observational sites, along with lowered cloud bases. Despite any
brief window of drying, copious amounts of moisture is still
abundant across the region as the continued moisture feed from the
GoMex remains uninhibited. Impressive PWAT values of 1.54 inches
from TOP`s 00Z sounding lines up fairly well with model soundings,
with elevated values looking to remain in place through early
tonight. The influx of warm, moist air will finally get
interrupted tonight as an upper-level shortwave trough axis moves
through. The upper wave with a reflection at the surface will
tighten up as it crosses the forecast area, and as it moves off
toward the NNE, will take the bulk of the precip with it.
Basically what the forecast is looking like for today through the
holiday tomorrow is continued chances for moderate to heavy
rainfall with thunderstorms possible as the rain transitions to
more of a convective nature, finally beginning to wane as Monday
morning approaches, and quite possibly some decent drying out on
Monday with only slight chances of thunderstorms during the day.
Memorial Day will see mid- to upper-level dry air working its way
into the area and with run after run of model soundings
continuing to indicate a cap remaining in place during the
afternoon, could keep convection from firing up. That said, if the
cap breaks down, noteworthy warming temps and plentiful surface-
based instability that will have moved in, along with respectable
shear values, could allow for some feisty storms to be created.

Next shortwave trough traverses through Monday night into Tuesday,
welcoming back at least chance PoPs to the forecast. For the rest
of the forecast period, unsettled pattern remains locked in place
with perturbation after perturbation trekking through the region
and PWAT values over an inch commonplace through the upcoming
week. This equates to mentionable PoPs throughout the rest of the
forecast period, but doesn`t equate to a washout throughout the
week.

Highs today region-wide should be able to reach into the 70s
despite any cloud cover or rain. Temps tomorrow will reach up into
the upper 70s to lower 80s and while these temps may be welcomed
by some, the caveat is that it`ll feel humid outdoors with
dewpoints well into the 60s. For the rest of the week, 70s and 80s
for highs will be seen each day with lows generally in the upper
50s to 60s throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A couple of waves of activity will affect the area through the
afternoon and evening hours. The first is a band of light
precipitation which will continue to move over the terminal sites
from the southwest. Ceilings may be reduced periodically during this
time until 20Z. Activity should taper off during the mid-afternoon
hours with improving ceilings as the afternoon progresses. The final
round of precipitation will then develop by the early evening hours.
Activity should remain in place until early Monday morning, though
ceiling heights should remain VFR. Dry air will then filter in toward
the end of the forecast period with overcast skies gradually
dissipating.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 241650
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1150 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...Rainfall totals to continue to climb throughout today...

Moderate to heavy rainfall has been falling across the forecast
area early this morning with a bit of drying observed on the
western edge of the main axis of the stratiform rain. Even outside
of some of the better reflectivity echoes on radar this early AM,
drizzle and light rain has still been reported at area
observational sites, along with lowered cloud bases. Despite any
brief window of drying, copious amounts of moisture is still
abundant across the region as the continued moisture feed from the
GoMex remains uninhibited. Impressive PWAT values of 1.54 inches
from TOP`s 00Z sounding lines up fairly well with model soundings,
with elevated values looking to remain in place through early
tonight. The influx of warm, moist air will finally get
interrupted tonight as an upper-level shortwave trough axis moves
through. The upper wave with a reflection at the surface will
tighten up as it crosses the forecast area, and as it moves off
toward the NNE, will take the bulk of the precip with it.
Basically what the forecast is looking like for today through the
holiday tomorrow is continued chances for moderate to heavy
rainfall with thunderstorms possible as the rain transitions to
more of a convective nature, finally beginning to wane as Monday
morning approaches, and quite possibly some decent drying out on
Monday with only slight chances of thunderstorms during the day.
Memorial Day will see mid- to upper-level dry air working its way
into the area and with run after run of model soundings
continuing to indicate a cap remaining in place during the
afternoon, could keep convection from firing up. That said, if the
cap breaks down, noteworthy warming temps and plentiful surface-
based instability that will have moved in, along with respectable
shear values, could allow for some feisty storms to be created.

Next shortwave trough traverses through Monday night into Tuesday,
welcoming back at least chance PoPs to the forecast. For the rest
of the forecast period, unsettled pattern remains locked in place
with perturbation after perturbation trekking through the region
and PWAT values over an inch commonplace through the upcoming
week. This equates to mentionable PoPs throughout the rest of the
forecast period, but doesn`t equate to a washout throughout the
week.

Highs today region-wide should be able to reach into the 70s
despite any cloud cover or rain. Temps tomorrow will reach up into
the upper 70s to lower 80s and while these temps may be welcomed
by some, the caveat is that it`ll feel humid outdoors with
dewpoints well into the 60s. For the rest of the week, 70s and 80s
for highs will be seen each day with lows generally in the upper
50s to 60s throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A couple of waves of activity will affect the area through the
afternoon and evening hours. The first is a band of light
precipitation which will continue to move over the terminal sites
from the southwest. Ceilings may be reduced periodically during this
time until 20Z. Activity should taper off during the mid-afternoon
hours with improving ceilings as the afternoon progresses. The final
round of precipitation will then develop by the early evening hours.
Activity should remain in place until early Monday morning, though
ceiling heights should remain VFR. Dry air will then filter in toward
the end of the forecast period with overcast skies gradually
dissipating.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 241650
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1150 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...Rainfall totals to continue to climb throughout today...

Moderate to heavy rainfall has been falling across the forecast
area early this morning with a bit of drying observed on the
western edge of the main axis of the stratiform rain. Even outside
of some of the better reflectivity echoes on radar this early AM,
drizzle and light rain has still been reported at area
observational sites, along with lowered cloud bases. Despite any
brief window of drying, copious amounts of moisture is still
abundant across the region as the continued moisture feed from the
GoMex remains uninhibited. Impressive PWAT values of 1.54 inches
from TOP`s 00Z sounding lines up fairly well with model soundings,
with elevated values looking to remain in place through early
tonight. The influx of warm, moist air will finally get
interrupted tonight as an upper-level shortwave trough axis moves
through. The upper wave with a reflection at the surface will
tighten up as it crosses the forecast area, and as it moves off
toward the NNE, will take the bulk of the precip with it.
Basically what the forecast is looking like for today through the
holiday tomorrow is continued chances for moderate to heavy
rainfall with thunderstorms possible as the rain transitions to
more of a convective nature, finally beginning to wane as Monday
morning approaches, and quite possibly some decent drying out on
Monday with only slight chances of thunderstorms during the day.
Memorial Day will see mid- to upper-level dry air working its way
into the area and with run after run of model soundings
continuing to indicate a cap remaining in place during the
afternoon, could keep convection from firing up. That said, if the
cap breaks down, noteworthy warming temps and plentiful surface-
based instability that will have moved in, along with respectable
shear values, could allow for some feisty storms to be created.

Next shortwave trough traverses through Monday night into Tuesday,
welcoming back at least chance PoPs to the forecast. For the rest
of the forecast period, unsettled pattern remains locked in place
with perturbation after perturbation trekking through the region
and PWAT values over an inch commonplace through the upcoming
week. This equates to mentionable PoPs throughout the rest of the
forecast period, but doesn`t equate to a washout throughout the
week.

Highs today region-wide should be able to reach into the 70s
despite any cloud cover or rain. Temps tomorrow will reach up into
the upper 70s to lower 80s and while these temps may be welcomed
by some, the caveat is that it`ll feel humid outdoors with
dewpoints well into the 60s. For the rest of the week, 70s and 80s
for highs will be seen each day with lows generally in the upper
50s to 60s throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A couple of waves of activity will affect the area through the
afternoon and evening hours. The first is a band of light
precipitation which will continue to move over the terminal sites
from the southwest. Ceilings may be reduced periodically during this
time until 20Z. Activity should taper off during the mid-afternoon
hours with improving ceilings as the afternoon progresses. The final
round of precipitation will then develop by the early evening hours.
Activity should remain in place until early Monday morning, though
ceiling heights should remain VFR. Dry air will then filter in toward
the end of the forecast period with overcast skies gradually
dissipating.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 241650
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1150 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...Rainfall totals to continue to climb throughout today...

Moderate to heavy rainfall has been falling across the forecast
area early this morning with a bit of drying observed on the
western edge of the main axis of the stratiform rain. Even outside
of some of the better reflectivity echoes on radar this early AM,
drizzle and light rain has still been reported at area
observational sites, along with lowered cloud bases. Despite any
brief window of drying, copious amounts of moisture is still
abundant across the region as the continued moisture feed from the
GoMex remains uninhibited. Impressive PWAT values of 1.54 inches
from TOP`s 00Z sounding lines up fairly well with model soundings,
with elevated values looking to remain in place through early
tonight. The influx of warm, moist air will finally get
interrupted tonight as an upper-level shortwave trough axis moves
through. The upper wave with a reflection at the surface will
tighten up as it crosses the forecast area, and as it moves off
toward the NNE, will take the bulk of the precip with it.
Basically what the forecast is looking like for today through the
holiday tomorrow is continued chances for moderate to heavy
rainfall with thunderstorms possible as the rain transitions to
more of a convective nature, finally beginning to wane as Monday
morning approaches, and quite possibly some decent drying out on
Monday with only slight chances of thunderstorms during the day.
Memorial Day will see mid- to upper-level dry air working its way
into the area and with run after run of model soundings
continuing to indicate a cap remaining in place during the
afternoon, could keep convection from firing up. That said, if the
cap breaks down, noteworthy warming temps and plentiful surface-
based instability that will have moved in, along with respectable
shear values, could allow for some feisty storms to be created.

Next shortwave trough traverses through Monday night into Tuesday,
welcoming back at least chance PoPs to the forecast. For the rest
of the forecast period, unsettled pattern remains locked in place
with perturbation after perturbation trekking through the region
and PWAT values over an inch commonplace through the upcoming
week. This equates to mentionable PoPs throughout the rest of the
forecast period, but doesn`t equate to a washout throughout the
week.

Highs today region-wide should be able to reach into the 70s
despite any cloud cover or rain. Temps tomorrow will reach up into
the upper 70s to lower 80s and while these temps may be welcomed
by some, the caveat is that it`ll feel humid outdoors with
dewpoints well into the 60s. For the rest of the week, 70s and 80s
for highs will be seen each day with lows generally in the upper
50s to 60s throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A couple of waves of activity will affect the area through the
afternoon and evening hours. The first is a band of light
precipitation which will continue to move over the terminal sites
from the southwest. Ceilings may be reduced periodically during this
time until 20Z. Activity should taper off during the mid-afternoon
hours with improving ceilings as the afternoon progresses. The final
round of precipitation will then develop by the early evening hours.
Activity should remain in place until early Monday morning, though
ceiling heights should remain VFR. Dry air will then filter in toward
the end of the forecast period with overcast skies gradually
dissipating.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KSGF 241150
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
650 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Light to moderate rain had moved into southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri with rainfall rates approaching and 3/4 to 1 inch
per hour. A strong low level jet and ample deep layer moisture
with PW values around 1.5" were noted on the 00z SGF sounding.
Models continue to bring increasing moisture with PW`s up to 2"
across the region through most of today. As a result, flooding was
ongoing in portions of southeastern Kansas and additional flooding
is expected through today as rain continues to develop across
Oklahoma and spread into the region.

There will also be a limited risk for some winds gust in excess of
50mph with any line segments that bow towards the north or
northeast as they will be able to take advantage of the 0-3km bulk
shear values around 35-40kts. If instability were to become a
little stronger than currently expected the winds may be a bit
stronger producing an elevated severe storm risk.

The band of heaviest rainfall was just east of Joplin early this
morning and should continue to slide slowly east this morning.
Still thinking though that the best chances for heavy rain and
flooding resides west of Highway 65 and will continue the Flash
Flood Watch currently out through the day today and tonight into
Monday morning.

Rainfall totals between 2-3" are still expected with some local
areas exceeding the 3" mark possible. With continued southerly
winds, warm temperatures in the 70s will continue today despite the
rain and cloud cover. With the WAA and moisture advection
continuing overnight, tonight`s lows will fall only slightly into
the 60s.

Additional rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected late
today and into tonight as another shortwave swings around the
upper low over the plains and another LLJ impinges on the Ozarks
region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Models have hinted the last few runs for a potential dry period
from Monday morning through around sunset as the region gets dry
slotted. At this point see no reason to dispute this though a few
light showers or sprinkles may occur. This may be a welcome break
in the rain just as another upper level wave moves across the
plains and brings the next round of rain into the Ozarks for the
overnight hours Monday night into Tuesday morning. This storm
system looks as though it will affect areas generally east of
Highway 65 however. The rainfall amounts with this next system may
be enough to produce another round of flooding to the east of
Highway 65 during this period, but held off on any headlines until
we see what the current system does and what models do for the
east with the next run.

For the remainder of the week and into next weekend, several more
rounds of rain are expected on a daily basis as the upper level
pattern remains active and the surface and mid level flow continue
to bring moisture into the region from the Gulf. In all, the week
ahead looks to be a cloudy, wet, and dreary one.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The storm system moving across the region will continue to bring
MVFR to occasionally IFR ceilings and visibilities to terminals
across the Ozarks today and overnight tonight. Surface winds will
be gusty at times from the south especially in the vicinity of
Isolated thunderstorms. Heavy rain will at times limit
visibilities to MVFR/IFR. Some improvement to VFR is expected by
late morning Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-
     077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-
     101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch







000
FXUS63 KSGF 241150
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
650 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Light to moderate rain had moved into southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri with rainfall rates approaching and 3/4 to 1 inch
per hour. A strong low level jet and ample deep layer moisture
with PW values around 1.5" were noted on the 00z SGF sounding.
Models continue to bring increasing moisture with PW`s up to 2"
across the region through most of today. As a result, flooding was
ongoing in portions of southeastern Kansas and additional flooding
is expected through today as rain continues to develop across
Oklahoma and spread into the region.

There will also be a limited risk for some winds gust in excess of
50mph with any line segments that bow towards the north or
northeast as they will be able to take advantage of the 0-3km bulk
shear values around 35-40kts. If instability were to become a
little stronger than currently expected the winds may be a bit
stronger producing an elevated severe storm risk.

The band of heaviest rainfall was just east of Joplin early this
morning and should continue to slide slowly east this morning.
Still thinking though that the best chances for heavy rain and
flooding resides west of Highway 65 and will continue the Flash
Flood Watch currently out through the day today and tonight into
Monday morning.

Rainfall totals between 2-3" are still expected with some local
areas exceeding the 3" mark possible. With continued southerly
winds, warm temperatures in the 70s will continue today despite the
rain and cloud cover. With the WAA and moisture advection
continuing overnight, tonight`s lows will fall only slightly into
the 60s.

Additional rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected late
today and into tonight as another shortwave swings around the
upper low over the plains and another LLJ impinges on the Ozarks
region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Models have hinted the last few runs for a potential dry period
from Monday morning through around sunset as the region gets dry
slotted. At this point see no reason to dispute this though a few
light showers or sprinkles may occur. This may be a welcome break
in the rain just as another upper level wave moves across the
plains and brings the next round of rain into the Ozarks for the
overnight hours Monday night into Tuesday morning. This storm
system looks as though it will affect areas generally east of
Highway 65 however. The rainfall amounts with this next system may
be enough to produce another round of flooding to the east of
Highway 65 during this period, but held off on any headlines until
we see what the current system does and what models do for the
east with the next run.

For the remainder of the week and into next weekend, several more
rounds of rain are expected on a daily basis as the upper level
pattern remains active and the surface and mid level flow continue
to bring moisture into the region from the Gulf. In all, the week
ahead looks to be a cloudy, wet, and dreary one.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The storm system moving across the region will continue to bring
MVFR to occasionally IFR ceilings and visibilities to terminals
across the Ozarks today and overnight tonight. Surface winds will
be gusty at times from the south especially in the vicinity of
Isolated thunderstorms. Heavy rain will at times limit
visibilities to MVFR/IFR. Some improvement to VFR is expected by
late morning Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-
     077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-
     101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch








000
FXUS63 KSGF 241150
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
650 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Light to moderate rain had moved into southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri with rainfall rates approaching and 3/4 to 1 inch
per hour. A strong low level jet and ample deep layer moisture
with PW values around 1.5" were noted on the 00z SGF sounding.
Models continue to bring increasing moisture with PW`s up to 2"
across the region through most of today. As a result, flooding was
ongoing in portions of southeastern Kansas and additional flooding
is expected through today as rain continues to develop across
Oklahoma and spread into the region.

There will also be a limited risk for some winds gust in excess of
50mph with any line segments that bow towards the north or
northeast as they will be able to take advantage of the 0-3km bulk
shear values around 35-40kts. If instability were to become a
little stronger than currently expected the winds may be a bit
stronger producing an elevated severe storm risk.

The band of heaviest rainfall was just east of Joplin early this
morning and should continue to slide slowly east this morning.
Still thinking though that the best chances for heavy rain and
flooding resides west of Highway 65 and will continue the Flash
Flood Watch currently out through the day today and tonight into
Monday morning.

Rainfall totals between 2-3" are still expected with some local
areas exceeding the 3" mark possible. With continued southerly
winds, warm temperatures in the 70s will continue today despite the
rain and cloud cover. With the WAA and moisture advection
continuing overnight, tonight`s lows will fall only slightly into
the 60s.

Additional rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected late
today and into tonight as another shortwave swings around the
upper low over the plains and another LLJ impinges on the Ozarks
region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Models have hinted the last few runs for a potential dry period
from Monday morning through around sunset as the region gets dry
slotted. At this point see no reason to dispute this though a few
light showers or sprinkles may occur. This may be a welcome break
in the rain just as another upper level wave moves across the
plains and brings the next round of rain into the Ozarks for the
overnight hours Monday night into Tuesday morning. This storm
system looks as though it will affect areas generally east of
Highway 65 however. The rainfall amounts with this next system may
be enough to produce another round of flooding to the east of
Highway 65 during this period, but held off on any headlines until
we see what the current system does and what models do for the
east with the next run.

For the remainder of the week and into next weekend, several more
rounds of rain are expected on a daily basis as the upper level
pattern remains active and the surface and mid level flow continue
to bring moisture into the region from the Gulf. In all, the week
ahead looks to be a cloudy, wet, and dreary one.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The storm system moving across the region will continue to bring
MVFR to occasionally IFR ceilings and visibilities to terminals
across the Ozarks today and overnight tonight. Surface winds will
be gusty at times from the south especially in the vicinity of
Isolated thunderstorms. Heavy rain will at times limit
visibilities to MVFR/IFR. Some improvement to VFR is expected by
late morning Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-
     077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-
     101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch








000
FXUS63 KSGF 241150
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
650 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Light to moderate rain had moved into southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri with rainfall rates approaching and 3/4 to 1 inch
per hour. A strong low level jet and ample deep layer moisture
with PW values around 1.5" were noted on the 00z SGF sounding.
Models continue to bring increasing moisture with PW`s up to 2"
across the region through most of today. As a result, flooding was
ongoing in portions of southeastern Kansas and additional flooding
is expected through today as rain continues to develop across
Oklahoma and spread into the region.

There will also be a limited risk for some winds gust in excess of
50mph with any line segments that bow towards the north or
northeast as they will be able to take advantage of the 0-3km bulk
shear values around 35-40kts. If instability were to become a
little stronger than currently expected the winds may be a bit
stronger producing an elevated severe storm risk.

The band of heaviest rainfall was just east of Joplin early this
morning and should continue to slide slowly east this morning.
Still thinking though that the best chances for heavy rain and
flooding resides west of Highway 65 and will continue the Flash
Flood Watch currently out through the day today and tonight into
Monday morning.

Rainfall totals between 2-3" are still expected with some local
areas exceeding the 3" mark possible. With continued southerly
winds, warm temperatures in the 70s will continue today despite the
rain and cloud cover. With the WAA and moisture advection
continuing overnight, tonight`s lows will fall only slightly into
the 60s.

Additional rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected late
today and into tonight as another shortwave swings around the
upper low over the plains and another LLJ impinges on the Ozarks
region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Models have hinted the last few runs for a potential dry period
from Monday morning through around sunset as the region gets dry
slotted. At this point see no reason to dispute this though a few
light showers or sprinkles may occur. This may be a welcome break
in the rain just as another upper level wave moves across the
plains and brings the next round of rain into the Ozarks for the
overnight hours Monday night into Tuesday morning. This storm
system looks as though it will affect areas generally east of
Highway 65 however. The rainfall amounts with this next system may
be enough to produce another round of flooding to the east of
Highway 65 during this period, but held off on any headlines until
we see what the current system does and what models do for the
east with the next run.

For the remainder of the week and into next weekend, several more
rounds of rain are expected on a daily basis as the upper level
pattern remains active and the surface and mid level flow continue
to bring moisture into the region from the Gulf. In all, the week
ahead looks to be a cloudy, wet, and dreary one.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The storm system moving across the region will continue to bring
MVFR to occasionally IFR ceilings and visibilities to terminals
across the Ozarks today and overnight tonight. Surface winds will
be gusty at times from the south especially in the vicinity of
Isolated thunderstorms. Heavy rain will at times limit
visibilities to MVFR/IFR. Some improvement to VFR is expected by
late morning Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-
     077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-
     101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch







000
FXUS63 KLSX 241143
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
643 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Will see an gradual increase in rain chances today...particularly
over the western and northern parts of the CWA as the upper ridge
moves off to the east which will allow for southwesterly upper flow
to establish itself over the area.  Large area of rain over central
and western Missouri is being generated in an area of strong low
level moisture convergence under the broad area of upper level
ascent.  This low level moisture convergence will shift eastward
today and is being picked up well by the 00Z NMM WRF.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

(Tonight through Tuesday)

The NAM has been the most consistent of the models as of late.   A
notable shortwave will move across the area tonight which will bring
stronger ascent along with strong low moisture convergence ahead of
it.  Will continue with likely or categorical PoPs over the entire
area.  Then Memorial Day still looks mostly dry as subsidence sets
in behind aforementioned shortwave trough.  Will keep high chance
and likely PoPs on Monday night as the next shortwave trough moves
across the area.  Will also keep likely PoPs on Tuesday as yet
another shortwave moves across the area.

Will stick closer to the NAM MOS guidance for temperatures based on
model preference.

(Wednesday through next Saturday)

Will continue to go with chances of showers and thunderstorms for
most of the extended part of the forecast as a series of shortwaves
moves across the area.  A quasi-stationary front will over the area
which is typical for late May and temperatures will be determined be
what side the front is on.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Main question for this TAF period will be timing of precip.
Ongoing precip across wrn MO shud slowly dissipate this morning.
However, isod to sct TSRA shud develop across the region late this
morning into the afternoon hours. The main threat for precip will
be late this afternoon thru at least the evening hrs. Precip may
need to be continued beyond going TAFs. Otherwise, winds will
become sely to sly with gusts to at least 25 kts. Winds will
become swly late tonight.

Specifics for KSTL: Strong and gusty sely to sly winds expected
today. Main threat for precip remains late this afternoon thru the
evening hrs. Precip may need to be continued beyond going TAF with
future updates. Winds will become swly late tonight.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 241143
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
643 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Will see an gradual increase in rain chances today...particularly
over the western and northern parts of the CWA as the upper ridge
moves off to the east which will allow for southwesterly upper flow
to establish itself over the area.  Large area of rain over central
and western Missouri is being generated in an area of strong low
level moisture convergence under the broad area of upper level
ascent.  This low level moisture convergence will shift eastward
today and is being picked up well by the 00Z NMM WRF.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

(Tonight through Tuesday)

The NAM has been the most consistent of the models as of late.   A
notable shortwave will move across the area tonight which will bring
stronger ascent along with strong low moisture convergence ahead of
it.  Will continue with likely or categorical PoPs over the entire
area.  Then Memorial Day still looks mostly dry as subsidence sets
in behind aforementioned shortwave trough.  Will keep high chance
and likely PoPs on Monday night as the next shortwave trough moves
across the area.  Will also keep likely PoPs on Tuesday as yet
another shortwave moves across the area.

Will stick closer to the NAM MOS guidance for temperatures based on
model preference.

(Wednesday through next Saturday)

Will continue to go with chances of showers and thunderstorms for
most of the extended part of the forecast as a series of shortwaves
moves across the area.  A quasi-stationary front will over the area
which is typical for late May and temperatures will be determined be
what side the front is on.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Main question for this TAF period will be timing of precip.
Ongoing precip across wrn MO shud slowly dissipate this morning.
However, isod to sct TSRA shud develop across the region late this
morning into the afternoon hours. The main threat for precip will
be late this afternoon thru at least the evening hrs. Precip may
need to be continued beyond going TAFs. Otherwise, winds will
become sely to sly with gusts to at least 25 kts. Winds will
become swly late tonight.

Specifics for KSTL: Strong and gusty sely to sly winds expected
today. Main threat for precip remains late this afternoon thru the
evening hrs. Precip may need to be continued beyond going TAF with
future updates. Winds will become swly late tonight.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 241143
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
643 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Will see an gradual increase in rain chances today...particularly
over the western and northern parts of the CWA as the upper ridge
moves off to the east which will allow for southwesterly upper flow
to establish itself over the area.  Large area of rain over central
and western Missouri is being generated in an area of strong low
level moisture convergence under the broad area of upper level
ascent.  This low level moisture convergence will shift eastward
today and is being picked up well by the 00Z NMM WRF.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

(Tonight through Tuesday)

The NAM has been the most consistent of the models as of late.   A
notable shortwave will move across the area tonight which will bring
stronger ascent along with strong low moisture convergence ahead of
it.  Will continue with likely or categorical PoPs over the entire
area.  Then Memorial Day still looks mostly dry as subsidence sets
in behind aforementioned shortwave trough.  Will keep high chance
and likely PoPs on Monday night as the next shortwave trough moves
across the area.  Will also keep likely PoPs on Tuesday as yet
another shortwave moves across the area.

Will stick closer to the NAM MOS guidance for temperatures based on
model preference.

(Wednesday through next Saturday)

Will continue to go with chances of showers and thunderstorms for
most of the extended part of the forecast as a series of shortwaves
moves across the area.  A quasi-stationary front will over the area
which is typical for late May and temperatures will be determined be
what side the front is on.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Main question for this TAF period will be timing of precip.
Ongoing precip across wrn MO shud slowly dissipate this morning.
However, isod to sct TSRA shud develop across the region late this
morning into the afternoon hours. The main threat for precip will
be late this afternoon thru at least the evening hrs. Precip may
need to be continued beyond going TAFs. Otherwise, winds will
become sely to sly with gusts to at least 25 kts. Winds will
become swly late tonight.

Specifics for KSTL: Strong and gusty sely to sly winds expected
today. Main threat for precip remains late this afternoon thru the
evening hrs. Precip may need to be continued beyond going TAF with
future updates. Winds will become swly late tonight.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 241143
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
643 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Will see an gradual increase in rain chances today...particularly
over the western and northern parts of the CWA as the upper ridge
moves off to the east which will allow for southwesterly upper flow
to establish itself over the area.  Large area of rain over central
and western Missouri is being generated in an area of strong low
level moisture convergence under the broad area of upper level
ascent.  This low level moisture convergence will shift eastward
today and is being picked up well by the 00Z NMM WRF.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

(Tonight through Tuesday)

The NAM has been the most consistent of the models as of late.   A
notable shortwave will move across the area tonight which will bring
stronger ascent along with strong low moisture convergence ahead of
it.  Will continue with likely or categorical PoPs over the entire
area.  Then Memorial Day still looks mostly dry as subsidence sets
in behind aforementioned shortwave trough.  Will keep high chance
and likely PoPs on Monday night as the next shortwave trough moves
across the area.  Will also keep likely PoPs on Tuesday as yet
another shortwave moves across the area.

Will stick closer to the NAM MOS guidance for temperatures based on
model preference.

(Wednesday through next Saturday)

Will continue to go with chances of showers and thunderstorms for
most of the extended part of the forecast as a series of shortwaves
moves across the area.  A quasi-stationary front will over the area
which is typical for late May and temperatures will be determined be
what side the front is on.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Main question for this TAF period will be timing of precip.
Ongoing precip across wrn MO shud slowly dissipate this morning.
However, isod to sct TSRA shud develop across the region late this
morning into the afternoon hours. The main threat for precip will
be late this afternoon thru at least the evening hrs. Precip may
need to be continued beyond going TAFs. Otherwise, winds will
become sely to sly with gusts to at least 25 kts. Winds will
become swly late tonight.

Specifics for KSTL: Strong and gusty sely to sly winds expected
today. Main threat for precip remains late this afternoon thru the
evening hrs. Precip may need to be continued beyond going TAF with
future updates. Winds will become swly late tonight.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 241048
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...Rainfall totals to continue to climb throughout today...

Moderate to heavy rainfall has been falling across the forecast
area early this morning with a bit of drying observed on the
western edge of the main axis of the stratiform rain. Even outside
of some of the better reflectivity echoes on radar this early AM,
drizzle and light rain has still been reported at area
observational sites, along with lowered cloud bases. Despite any
brief window of drying, copious amounts of moisture is still
abundant across the region as the continued moisture feed from the
GoMex remains uninhibited. Impressive PWAT values of 1.54 inches
from TOP`s 00Z sounding lines up fairly well with model soundings,
with elevated values looking to remain in place through early
tonight. The influx of warm, moist air will finally get
interrupted tonight as an upper-level shortwave trough axis moves
through. The upper wave with a reflection at the surface will
tighten up as it crosses the forecast area, and as it moves off
toward the NNE, will take the bulk of the precip with it.
Basically what the forecast is looking like for today through the
holiday tomorrow is continued chances for moderate to heavy
rainfall with thunderstorms possible as the rain transitions to
more of a convective nature, finally beginning to wane as Monday
morning approaches, and quite possibly some decent drying out on
Monday with only slight chances of thunderstorms during the day.
Memorial Day will see mid- to upper-level dry air working its way
into the area and with run after run of model soundings
continuing to indicate a cap remaining in place during the
afternoon, could keep convection from firing up. That said, if the
cap breaks down, noteworthy warming temps and plentiful surface-
based instability that will have moved in, along with respectable
shear values, could allow for some feisty storms to be created.

Next shortwave trough traverses through Monday night into Tuesday,
welcoming back at least chance PoPs to the forecast. For the rest
of the forecast period, unsettled pattern remains locked in place
with perturbation after perturbation trekking through the region
and PWAT values over an inch commonplace through the upcoming
week. This equates to mentionable PoPs throughout the rest of the
forecast period, but doesn`t equate to a washout throughout the
week.

Highs today region-wide should be able to reach into the 70s
despite any cloud cover or rain. Temps tomorrow will reach up into
the upper 70s to lower 80s and while these temps may be welcomed
by some, the caveat is that it`ll feel humid outdoors with
dewpoints well into the 60s. For the rest of the week, 70s and 80s
for highs will be seen each day with lows generally in the upper
50s to 60s throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 535 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Observations this morning at the area terminals have been
teetering back and forth between MVFR and IFR conditions as rain
and lowered ceilings cruises through periodically. General overall
trend throughout the TAF period is for this teetering to continue,
predominately in MVFR status with drops into the IFR category when
showers/storms traverses over a terminal. Moderate to heavy
rainfall will continue to be a threat through tonight. Southerly
winds will continue to prevail with occasional gusts possible.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...lg






000
FXUS63 KEAX 241048
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...Rainfall totals to continue to climb throughout today...

Moderate to heavy rainfall has been falling across the forecast
area early this morning with a bit of drying observed on the
western edge of the main axis of the stratiform rain. Even outside
of some of the better reflectivity echoes on radar this early AM,
drizzle and light rain has still been reported at area
observational sites, along with lowered cloud bases. Despite any
brief window of drying, copious amounts of moisture is still
abundant across the region as the continued moisture feed from the
GoMex remains uninhibited. Impressive PWAT values of 1.54 inches
from TOP`s 00Z sounding lines up fairly well with model soundings,
with elevated values looking to remain in place through early
tonight. The influx of warm, moist air will finally get
interrupted tonight as an upper-level shortwave trough axis moves
through. The upper wave with a reflection at the surface will
tighten up as it crosses the forecast area, and as it moves off
toward the NNE, will take the bulk of the precip with it.
Basically what the forecast is looking like for today through the
holiday tomorrow is continued chances for moderate to heavy
rainfall with thunderstorms possible as the rain transitions to
more of a convective nature, finally beginning to wane as Monday
morning approaches, and quite possibly some decent drying out on
Monday with only slight chances of thunderstorms during the day.
Memorial Day will see mid- to upper-level dry air working its way
into the area and with run after run of model soundings
continuing to indicate a cap remaining in place during the
afternoon, could keep convection from firing up. That said, if the
cap breaks down, noteworthy warming temps and plentiful surface-
based instability that will have moved in, along with respectable
shear values, could allow for some feisty storms to be created.

Next shortwave trough traverses through Monday night into Tuesday,
welcoming back at least chance PoPs to the forecast. For the rest
of the forecast period, unsettled pattern remains locked in place
with perturbation after perturbation trekking through the region
and PWAT values over an inch commonplace through the upcoming
week. This equates to mentionable PoPs throughout the rest of the
forecast period, but doesn`t equate to a washout throughout the
week.

Highs today region-wide should be able to reach into the 70s
despite any cloud cover or rain. Temps tomorrow will reach up into
the upper 70s to lower 80s and while these temps may be welcomed
by some, the caveat is that it`ll feel humid outdoors with
dewpoints well into the 60s. For the rest of the week, 70s and 80s
for highs will be seen each day with lows generally in the upper
50s to 60s throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 535 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Observations this morning at the area terminals have been
teetering back and forth between MVFR and IFR conditions as rain
and lowered ceilings cruises through periodically. General overall
trend throughout the TAF period is for this teetering to continue,
predominately in MVFR status with drops into the IFR category when
showers/storms traverses over a terminal. Moderate to heavy
rainfall will continue to be a threat through tonight. Southerly
winds will continue to prevail with occasional gusts possible.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...lg







000
FXUS63 KEAX 241048
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...Rainfall totals to continue to climb throughout today...

Moderate to heavy rainfall has been falling across the forecast
area early this morning with a bit of drying observed on the
western edge of the main axis of the stratiform rain. Even outside
of some of the better reflectivity echoes on radar this early AM,
drizzle and light rain has still been reported at area
observational sites, along with lowered cloud bases. Despite any
brief window of drying, copious amounts of moisture is still
abundant across the region as the continued moisture feed from the
GoMex remains uninhibited. Impressive PWAT values of 1.54 inches
from TOP`s 00Z sounding lines up fairly well with model soundings,
with elevated values looking to remain in place through early
tonight. The influx of warm, moist air will finally get
interrupted tonight as an upper-level shortwave trough axis moves
through. The upper wave with a reflection at the surface will
tighten up as it crosses the forecast area, and as it moves off
toward the NNE, will take the bulk of the precip with it.
Basically what the forecast is looking like for today through the
holiday tomorrow is continued chances for moderate to heavy
rainfall with thunderstorms possible as the rain transitions to
more of a convective nature, finally beginning to wane as Monday
morning approaches, and quite possibly some decent drying out on
Monday with only slight chances of thunderstorms during the day.
Memorial Day will see mid- to upper-level dry air working its way
into the area and with run after run of model soundings
continuing to indicate a cap remaining in place during the
afternoon, could keep convection from firing up. That said, if the
cap breaks down, noteworthy warming temps and plentiful surface-
based instability that will have moved in, along with respectable
shear values, could allow for some feisty storms to be created.

Next shortwave trough traverses through Monday night into Tuesday,
welcoming back at least chance PoPs to the forecast. For the rest
of the forecast period, unsettled pattern remains locked in place
with perturbation after perturbation trekking through the region
and PWAT values over an inch commonplace through the upcoming
week. This equates to mentionable PoPs throughout the rest of the
forecast period, but doesn`t equate to a washout throughout the
week.

Highs today region-wide should be able to reach into the 70s
despite any cloud cover or rain. Temps tomorrow will reach up into
the upper 70s to lower 80s and while these temps may be welcomed
by some, the caveat is that it`ll feel humid outdoors with
dewpoints well into the 60s. For the rest of the week, 70s and 80s
for highs will be seen each day with lows generally in the upper
50s to 60s throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 535 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Observations this morning at the area terminals have been
teetering back and forth between MVFR and IFR conditions as rain
and lowered ceilings cruises through periodically. General overall
trend throughout the TAF period is for this teetering to continue,
predominately in MVFR status with drops into the IFR category when
showers/storms traverses over a terminal. Moderate to heavy
rainfall will continue to be a threat through tonight. Southerly
winds will continue to prevail with occasional gusts possible.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...lg







000
FXUS63 KEAX 241048
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...Rainfall totals to continue to climb throughout today...

Moderate to heavy rainfall has been falling across the forecast
area early this morning with a bit of drying observed on the
western edge of the main axis of the stratiform rain. Even outside
of some of the better reflectivity echoes on radar this early AM,
drizzle and light rain has still been reported at area
observational sites, along with lowered cloud bases. Despite any
brief window of drying, copious amounts of moisture is still
abundant across the region as the continued moisture feed from the
GoMex remains uninhibited. Impressive PWAT values of 1.54 inches
from TOP`s 00Z sounding lines up fairly well with model soundings,
with elevated values looking to remain in place through early
tonight. The influx of warm, moist air will finally get
interrupted tonight as an upper-level shortwave trough axis moves
through. The upper wave with a reflection at the surface will
tighten up as it crosses the forecast area, and as it moves off
toward the NNE, will take the bulk of the precip with it.
Basically what the forecast is looking like for today through the
holiday tomorrow is continued chances for moderate to heavy
rainfall with thunderstorms possible as the rain transitions to
more of a convective nature, finally beginning to wane as Monday
morning approaches, and quite possibly some decent drying out on
Monday with only slight chances of thunderstorms during the day.
Memorial Day will see mid- to upper-level dry air working its way
into the area and with run after run of model soundings
continuing to indicate a cap remaining in place during the
afternoon, could keep convection from firing up. That said, if the
cap breaks down, noteworthy warming temps and plentiful surface-
based instability that will have moved in, along with respectable
shear values, could allow for some feisty storms to be created.

Next shortwave trough traverses through Monday night into Tuesday,
welcoming back at least chance PoPs to the forecast. For the rest
of the forecast period, unsettled pattern remains locked in place
with perturbation after perturbation trekking through the region
and PWAT values over an inch commonplace through the upcoming
week. This equates to mentionable PoPs throughout the rest of the
forecast period, but doesn`t equate to a washout throughout the
week.

Highs today region-wide should be able to reach into the 70s
despite any cloud cover or rain. Temps tomorrow will reach up into
the upper 70s to lower 80s and while these temps may be welcomed
by some, the caveat is that it`ll feel humid outdoors with
dewpoints well into the 60s. For the rest of the week, 70s and 80s
for highs will be seen each day with lows generally in the upper
50s to 60s throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 535 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Observations this morning at the area terminals have been
teetering back and forth between MVFR and IFR conditions as rain
and lowered ceilings cruises through periodically. General overall
trend throughout the TAF period is for this teetering to continue,
predominately in MVFR status with drops into the IFR category when
showers/storms traverses over a terminal. Moderate to heavy
rainfall will continue to be a threat through tonight. Southerly
winds will continue to prevail with occasional gusts possible.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...lg







000
FXUS63 KEAX 241048
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...Rainfall totals to continue to climb throughout today...

Moderate to heavy rainfall has been falling across the forecast
area early this morning with a bit of drying observed on the
western edge of the main axis of the stratiform rain. Even outside
of some of the better reflectivity echoes on radar this early AM,
drizzle and light rain has still been reported at area
observational sites, along with lowered cloud bases. Despite any
brief window of drying, copious amounts of moisture is still
abundant across the region as the continued moisture feed from the
GoMex remains uninhibited. Impressive PWAT values of 1.54 inches
from TOP`s 00Z sounding lines up fairly well with model soundings,
with elevated values looking to remain in place through early
tonight. The influx of warm, moist air will finally get
interrupted tonight as an upper-level shortwave trough axis moves
through. The upper wave with a reflection at the surface will
tighten up as it crosses the forecast area, and as it moves off
toward the NNE, will take the bulk of the precip with it.
Basically what the forecast is looking like for today through the
holiday tomorrow is continued chances for moderate to heavy
rainfall with thunderstorms possible as the rain transitions to
more of a convective nature, finally beginning to wane as Monday
morning approaches, and quite possibly some decent drying out on
Monday with only slight chances of thunderstorms during the day.
Memorial Day will see mid- to upper-level dry air working its way
into the area and with run after run of model soundings
continuing to indicate a cap remaining in place during the
afternoon, could keep convection from firing up. That said, if the
cap breaks down, noteworthy warming temps and plentiful surface-
based instability that will have moved in, along with respectable
shear values, could allow for some feisty storms to be created.

Next shortwave trough traverses through Monday night into Tuesday,
welcoming back at least chance PoPs to the forecast. For the rest
of the forecast period, unsettled pattern remains locked in place
with perturbation after perturbation trekking through the region
and PWAT values over an inch commonplace through the upcoming
week. This equates to mentionable PoPs throughout the rest of the
forecast period, but doesn`t equate to a washout throughout the
week.

Highs today region-wide should be able to reach into the 70s
despite any cloud cover or rain. Temps tomorrow will reach up into
the upper 70s to lower 80s and while these temps may be welcomed
by some, the caveat is that it`ll feel humid outdoors with
dewpoints well into the 60s. For the rest of the week, 70s and 80s
for highs will be seen each day with lows generally in the upper
50s to 60s throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 535 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Observations this morning at the area terminals have been
teetering back and forth between MVFR and IFR conditions as rain
and lowered ceilings cruises through periodically. General overall
trend throughout the TAF period is for this teetering to continue,
predominately in MVFR status with drops into the IFR category when
showers/storms traverses over a terminal. Moderate to heavy
rainfall will continue to be a threat through tonight. Southerly
winds will continue to prevail with occasional gusts possible.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...lg







000
FXUS63 KEAX 241048
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...Rainfall totals to continue to climb throughout today...

Moderate to heavy rainfall has been falling across the forecast
area early this morning with a bit of drying observed on the
western edge of the main axis of the stratiform rain. Even outside
of some of the better reflectivity echoes on radar this early AM,
drizzle and light rain has still been reported at area
observational sites, along with lowered cloud bases. Despite any
brief window of drying, copious amounts of moisture is still
abundant across the region as the continued moisture feed from the
GoMex remains uninhibited. Impressive PWAT values of 1.54 inches
from TOP`s 00Z sounding lines up fairly well with model soundings,
with elevated values looking to remain in place through early
tonight. The influx of warm, moist air will finally get
interrupted tonight as an upper-level shortwave trough axis moves
through. The upper wave with a reflection at the surface will
tighten up as it crosses the forecast area, and as it moves off
toward the NNE, will take the bulk of the precip with it.
Basically what the forecast is looking like for today through the
holiday tomorrow is continued chances for moderate to heavy
rainfall with thunderstorms possible as the rain transitions to
more of a convective nature, finally beginning to wane as Monday
morning approaches, and quite possibly some decent drying out on
Monday with only slight chances of thunderstorms during the day.
Memorial Day will see mid- to upper-level dry air working its way
into the area and with run after run of model soundings
continuing to indicate a cap remaining in place during the
afternoon, could keep convection from firing up. That said, if the
cap breaks down, noteworthy warming temps and plentiful surface-
based instability that will have moved in, along with respectable
shear values, could allow for some feisty storms to be created.

Next shortwave trough traverses through Monday night into Tuesday,
welcoming back at least chance PoPs to the forecast. For the rest
of the forecast period, unsettled pattern remains locked in place
with perturbation after perturbation trekking through the region
and PWAT values over an inch commonplace through the upcoming
week. This equates to mentionable PoPs throughout the rest of the
forecast period, but doesn`t equate to a washout throughout the
week.

Highs today region-wide should be able to reach into the 70s
despite any cloud cover or rain. Temps tomorrow will reach up into
the upper 70s to lower 80s and while these temps may be welcomed
by some, the caveat is that it`ll feel humid outdoors with
dewpoints well into the 60s. For the rest of the week, 70s and 80s
for highs will be seen each day with lows generally in the upper
50s to 60s throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 535 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Observations this morning at the area terminals have been
teetering back and forth between MVFR and IFR conditions as rain
and lowered ceilings cruises through periodically. General overall
trend throughout the TAF period is for this teetering to continue,
predominately in MVFR status with drops into the IFR category when
showers/storms traverses over a terminal. Moderate to heavy
rainfall will continue to be a threat through tonight. Southerly
winds will continue to prevail with occasional gusts possible.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...lg






000
FXUS63 KEAX 240904
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
404 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...Rainfall totals to continue to climb throughout today...

Moderate to heavy rainfall has been falling across the forecast
area early this morning with a bit of drying observed on the
western edge of the main axis of the stratiform rain. Even outside
of some of the better reflectivity echoes on radar this early AM,
drizzle and light rain has still been reported at area
observational sites, along with lowered cloud bases. Despite any
brief window of drying, copious amounts of moisture is still
abundant across the region as the continued moisture feed from the
GoMex remains uninhibited. Impressive PWAT values of 1.54 inches
from TOP`s 00Z sounding lines up fairly well with model soundings,
with elevated values looking to remain in place through early
tonight. The influx of warm, moist air will finally get
interrupted tonight as an upper-level shortwave trough axis moves
through. The upper wave with a reflection at the surface will
tighten up as it crosses the forecast area, and as it moves off
toward the NNE, will take the bulk of the precip with it.
Basically what the forecast is looking like for today through the
holiday tomorrow is continued chances for moderate to heavy
rainfall with thunderstorms possible as the rain transitions to
more of a convective nature, finally beginning to wane as Monday
morning approaches, and quite possibly some decent drying out on
Monday with only slight chances of thunderstorms during the day.
Memorial Day will see mid- to upper-level dry air working its way
into the area and with run after run of model soundings
continuing to indicate a cap remaining in place during the
afternoon, could keep convection from firing up. That said, if the
cap breaks down, noteworthy warming temps and plentiful surface-
based instability that will have moved in, along with respectable
shear values, could allow for some feisty storms to be created.

Next shortwave trough traverses through Monday night into Tuesday,
welcoming back at least chance PoPs to the forecast. For the rest
of the forecast period, unsettled pattern remains locked in place
with perturbation after perturbation trekking through the region
and PWAT values over an inch commonplace through the upcoming
week. This equates to mentionable PoPs throughout the rest of the
forecast period, but doesn`t equate to a washout throughout the
week.

Highs today region-wide should be able to reach into the 70s
despite any cloud cover or rain. Temps tomorrow will reach up into
the upper 70s to lower 80s and while these temps may be welcomed
by some, the caveat is that it`ll feel humid outdoors with
dewpoints well into the 60s. For the rest of the week, 70s and 80s
for highs will be seen each day with lows generally in the upper
50s to 60s throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1113 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Moderate rain will continue to spread north northeast through at
least 12z at all TAF sites. Visibilities will be generally MVFR, but
could occasionally drop to IFR in periods of heavy rain. Ceilings
will progressively lower over the next few hours, likely lowering
into the IFR category by 09z. Rain will eventually push off to the
east but may not clear up entirely, possibly leaving a few very
isolated light showers for the remainder of Sunday. Surface winds
should remain 10-12 kts and prevent low-level wind shear concerns,
but winds at 2-3 kft will increase sharply to 40-50 kts over the
next few hours from the south southwest.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 240904
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
404 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...Rainfall totals to continue to climb throughout today...

Moderate to heavy rainfall has been falling across the forecast
area early this morning with a bit of drying observed on the
western edge of the main axis of the stratiform rain. Even outside
of some of the better reflectivity echoes on radar this early AM,
drizzle and light rain has still been reported at area
observational sites, along with lowered cloud bases. Despite any
brief window of drying, copious amounts of moisture is still
abundant across the region as the continued moisture feed from the
GoMex remains uninhibited. Impressive PWAT values of 1.54 inches
from TOP`s 00Z sounding lines up fairly well with model soundings,
with elevated values looking to remain in place through early
tonight. The influx of warm, moist air will finally get
interrupted tonight as an upper-level shortwave trough axis moves
through. The upper wave with a reflection at the surface will
tighten up as it crosses the forecast area, and as it moves off
toward the NNE, will take the bulk of the precip with it.
Basically what the forecast is looking like for today through the
holiday tomorrow is continued chances for moderate to heavy
rainfall with thunderstorms possible as the rain transitions to
more of a convective nature, finally beginning to wane as Monday
morning approaches, and quite possibly some decent drying out on
Monday with only slight chances of thunderstorms during the day.
Memorial Day will see mid- to upper-level dry air working its way
into the area and with run after run of model soundings
continuing to indicate a cap remaining in place during the
afternoon, could keep convection from firing up. That said, if the
cap breaks down, noteworthy warming temps and plentiful surface-
based instability that will have moved in, along with respectable
shear values, could allow for some feisty storms to be created.

Next shortwave trough traverses through Monday night into Tuesday,
welcoming back at least chance PoPs to the forecast. For the rest
of the forecast period, unsettled pattern remains locked in place
with perturbation after perturbation trekking through the region
and PWAT values over an inch commonplace through the upcoming
week. This equates to mentionable PoPs throughout the rest of the
forecast period, but doesn`t equate to a washout throughout the
week.

Highs today region-wide should be able to reach into the 70s
despite any cloud cover or rain. Temps tomorrow will reach up into
the upper 70s to lower 80s and while these temps may be welcomed
by some, the caveat is that it`ll feel humid outdoors with
dewpoints well into the 60s. For the rest of the week, 70s and 80s
for highs will be seen each day with lows generally in the upper
50s to 60s throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1113 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Moderate rain will continue to spread north northeast through at
least 12z at all TAF sites. Visibilities will be generally MVFR, but
could occasionally drop to IFR in periods of heavy rain. Ceilings
will progressively lower over the next few hours, likely lowering
into the IFR category by 09z. Rain will eventually push off to the
east but may not clear up entirely, possibly leaving a few very
isolated light showers for the remainder of Sunday. Surface winds
should remain 10-12 kts and prevent low-level wind shear concerns,
but winds at 2-3 kft will increase sharply to 40-50 kts over the
next few hours from the south southwest.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KEAX 240904
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
404 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...Rainfall totals to continue to climb throughout today...

Moderate to heavy rainfall has been falling across the forecast
area early this morning with a bit of drying observed on the
western edge of the main axis of the stratiform rain. Even outside
of some of the better reflectivity echoes on radar this early AM,
drizzle and light rain has still been reported at area
observational sites, along with lowered cloud bases. Despite any
brief window of drying, copious amounts of moisture is still
abundant across the region as the continued moisture feed from the
GoMex remains uninhibited. Impressive PWAT values of 1.54 inches
from TOP`s 00Z sounding lines up fairly well with model soundings,
with elevated values looking to remain in place through early
tonight. The influx of warm, moist air will finally get
interrupted tonight as an upper-level shortwave trough axis moves
through. The upper wave with a reflection at the surface will
tighten up as it crosses the forecast area, and as it moves off
toward the NNE, will take the bulk of the precip with it.
Basically what the forecast is looking like for today through the
holiday tomorrow is continued chances for moderate to heavy
rainfall with thunderstorms possible as the rain transitions to
more of a convective nature, finally beginning to wane as Monday
morning approaches, and quite possibly some decent drying out on
Monday with only slight chances of thunderstorms during the day.
Memorial Day will see mid- to upper-level dry air working its way
into the area and with run after run of model soundings
continuing to indicate a cap remaining in place during the
afternoon, could keep convection from firing up. That said, if the
cap breaks down, noteworthy warming temps and plentiful surface-
based instability that will have moved in, along with respectable
shear values, could allow for some feisty storms to be created.

Next shortwave trough traverses through Monday night into Tuesday,
welcoming back at least chance PoPs to the forecast. For the rest
of the forecast period, unsettled pattern remains locked in place
with perturbation after perturbation trekking through the region
and PWAT values over an inch commonplace through the upcoming
week. This equates to mentionable PoPs throughout the rest of the
forecast period, but doesn`t equate to a washout throughout the
week.

Highs today region-wide should be able to reach into the 70s
despite any cloud cover or rain. Temps tomorrow will reach up into
the upper 70s to lower 80s and while these temps may be welcomed
by some, the caveat is that it`ll feel humid outdoors with
dewpoints well into the 60s. For the rest of the week, 70s and 80s
for highs will be seen each day with lows generally in the upper
50s to 60s throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1113 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Moderate rain will continue to spread north northeast through at
least 12z at all TAF sites. Visibilities will be generally MVFR, but
could occasionally drop to IFR in periods of heavy rain. Ceilings
will progressively lower over the next few hours, likely lowering
into the IFR category by 09z. Rain will eventually push off to the
east but may not clear up entirely, possibly leaving a few very
isolated light showers for the remainder of Sunday. Surface winds
should remain 10-12 kts and prevent low-level wind shear concerns,
but winds at 2-3 kft will increase sharply to 40-50 kts over the
next few hours from the south southwest.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 240904
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
404 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...Rainfall totals to continue to climb throughout today...

Moderate to heavy rainfall has been falling across the forecast
area early this morning with a bit of drying observed on the
western edge of the main axis of the stratiform rain. Even outside
of some of the better reflectivity echoes on radar this early AM,
drizzle and light rain has still been reported at area
observational sites, along with lowered cloud bases. Despite any
brief window of drying, copious amounts of moisture is still
abundant across the region as the continued moisture feed from the
GoMex remains uninhibited. Impressive PWAT values of 1.54 inches
from TOP`s 00Z sounding lines up fairly well with model soundings,
with elevated values looking to remain in place through early
tonight. The influx of warm, moist air will finally get
interrupted tonight as an upper-level shortwave trough axis moves
through. The upper wave with a reflection at the surface will
tighten up as it crosses the forecast area, and as it moves off
toward the NNE, will take the bulk of the precip with it.
Basically what the forecast is looking like for today through the
holiday tomorrow is continued chances for moderate to heavy
rainfall with thunderstorms possible as the rain transitions to
more of a convective nature, finally beginning to wane as Monday
morning approaches, and quite possibly some decent drying out on
Monday with only slight chances of thunderstorms during the day.
Memorial Day will see mid- to upper-level dry air working its way
into the area and with run after run of model soundings
continuing to indicate a cap remaining in place during the
afternoon, could keep convection from firing up. That said, if the
cap breaks down, noteworthy warming temps and plentiful surface-
based instability that will have moved in, along with respectable
shear values, could allow for some feisty storms to be created.

Next shortwave trough traverses through Monday night into Tuesday,
welcoming back at least chance PoPs to the forecast. For the rest
of the forecast period, unsettled pattern remains locked in place
with perturbation after perturbation trekking through the region
and PWAT values over an inch commonplace through the upcoming
week. This equates to mentionable PoPs throughout the rest of the
forecast period, but doesn`t equate to a washout throughout the
week.

Highs today region-wide should be able to reach into the 70s
despite any cloud cover or rain. Temps tomorrow will reach up into
the upper 70s to lower 80s and while these temps may be welcomed
by some, the caveat is that it`ll feel humid outdoors with
dewpoints well into the 60s. For the rest of the week, 70s and 80s
for highs will be seen each day with lows generally in the upper
50s to 60s throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1113 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Moderate rain will continue to spread north northeast through at
least 12z at all TAF sites. Visibilities will be generally MVFR, but
could occasionally drop to IFR in periods of heavy rain. Ceilings
will progressively lower over the next few hours, likely lowering
into the IFR category by 09z. Rain will eventually push off to the
east but may not clear up entirely, possibly leaving a few very
isolated light showers for the remainder of Sunday. Surface winds
should remain 10-12 kts and prevent low-level wind shear concerns,
but winds at 2-3 kft will increase sharply to 40-50 kts over the
next few hours from the south southwest.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KSGF 240836
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
336 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Light to moderate rain had moved into southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri with rainfall rates approaching and 3/4 to 1 inch
per hour. A strong low level jet and ample deep layer moisture
with PW values around 1.5" were noted on the 00z SGF sounding.
Models continue to bring increasing moisture with PW`s up to 2"
across the region through most of today. As a result, flooding was
ongoing in portions of southeastern Kansas and additional flooding
is expected through today as rain continues to develop across
Oklahoma and spread into the region.

There will also be a limited risk for some winds gust in excess of
50mph with any line segments that bow towards the north or
northeast as they will be able to take advantage of the 0-3km bulk
shear values around 35-40kts. If instability were to become a
little stronger than currently expected the winds may be a bit
stronger producing an elevated severe storm risk.

The band of heaviest rainfall was just east of Joplin early this
morning and should continue to slide slowly east this morning.
Still thinking though that the best chances for heavy rain and
flooding resides west of Highway 65 and will continue the Flash
Flood Watch currently out through the day today and tonight into
Monday morning.

Rainfall totals between 2-3" are still expected with some local
areas exceeding the 3" mark possible. With continued southerly
winds, warm temperatures in the 70s will continue today despite the
rain and cloud cover. With the WAA and moisture advection
continuing overnight, tonight`s lows will fall only slightly into
the 60s.

Additional rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected late
today and into tonight as another shortwave swings around the
upper low over the plains and another LLJ impinges on the Ozarks
region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Models have hinted the last few runs for a potential dry period
from Monday morning through around sunset as the region gets dry
slotted. At this point see no reason to dispute this though a few
light showers or sprinkles may occur. This may be a welcome break
in the rain just as another upper level wave moves across the
plains and brings the next round of rain into the Ozarks for the
overnight hours Monday night into Tuesday morning. This storm
system looks as though it will affect areas generally east of
Highway 65 however. The rainfall amounts with this next system may
be enough to produce another round of flooding to the east of
Highway 65 during this period, but held off on any headlines until
we see what the current system does and what models do for the
east with the next run.

For the remainder of the week and into next weekend, several more
rounds of rain are expected on a daily basis as the upper level
pattern remains active and the surface and mid level flow continue
to bring moisture into the region from the Gulf. In all, the week
ahead looks to be a cloudy, wet, and dreary one.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Active weather expected over the next 24 hours as rounds of rain
and embedded thunderstorms spread over the region. Overall, any
vis/cig restrictions with rainfall will be MVFR, though a few
bouts of IFR will be possible (mainly at JLN). Southeast winds
will remain gusty throughout the forecast cycle, with low level
wind shear persisting the rest of tonight into the daylight hours
of Sunday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-
     077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-
     101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 240836
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
336 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Light to moderate rain had moved into southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri with rainfall rates approaching and 3/4 to 1 inch
per hour. A strong low level jet and ample deep layer moisture
with PW values around 1.5" were noted on the 00z SGF sounding.
Models continue to bring increasing moisture with PW`s up to 2"
across the region through most of today. As a result, flooding was
ongoing in portions of southeastern Kansas and additional flooding
is expected through today as rain continues to develop across
Oklahoma and spread into the region.

There will also be a limited risk for some winds gust in excess of
50mph with any line segments that bow towards the north or
northeast as they will be able to take advantage of the 0-3km bulk
shear values around 35-40kts. If instability were to become a
little stronger than currently expected the winds may be a bit
stronger producing an elevated severe storm risk.

The band of heaviest rainfall was just east of Joplin early this
morning and should continue to slide slowly east this morning.
Still thinking though that the best chances for heavy rain and
flooding resides west of Highway 65 and will continue the Flash
Flood Watch currently out through the day today and tonight into
Monday morning.

Rainfall totals between 2-3" are still expected with some local
areas exceeding the 3" mark possible. With continued southerly
winds, warm temperatures in the 70s will continue today despite the
rain and cloud cover. With the WAA and moisture advection
continuing overnight, tonight`s lows will fall only slightly into
the 60s.

Additional rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected late
today and into tonight as another shortwave swings around the
upper low over the plains and another LLJ impinges on the Ozarks
region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Models have hinted the last few runs for a potential dry period
from Monday morning through around sunset as the region gets dry
slotted. At this point see no reason to dispute this though a few
light showers or sprinkles may occur. This may be a welcome break
in the rain just as another upper level wave moves across the
plains and brings the next round of rain into the Ozarks for the
overnight hours Monday night into Tuesday morning. This storm
system looks as though it will affect areas generally east of
Highway 65 however. The rainfall amounts with this next system may
be enough to produce another round of flooding to the east of
Highway 65 during this period, but held off on any headlines until
we see what the current system does and what models do for the
east with the next run.

For the remainder of the week and into next weekend, several more
rounds of rain are expected on a daily basis as the upper level
pattern remains active and the surface and mid level flow continue
to bring moisture into the region from the Gulf. In all, the week
ahead looks to be a cloudy, wet, and dreary one.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Active weather expected over the next 24 hours as rounds of rain
and embedded thunderstorms spread over the region. Overall, any
vis/cig restrictions with rainfall will be MVFR, though a few
bouts of IFR will be possible (mainly at JLN). Southeast winds
will remain gusty throughout the forecast cycle, with low level
wind shear persisting the rest of tonight into the daylight hours
of Sunday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-
     077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-
     101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Gagan








000
FXUS63 KLSX 240820
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
320 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Will see an gradual increase in rain chances today...particularly
over the western and northern parts of the CWA as the upper ridge
moves off to the east which will allow for southwesterly upper flow
to establish itself over the area.  Large area of rain over central
and western Missouri is being generated in an area of strong low
level moisture convergence under the broad area of upper level
ascent.  This low level moisture convergence will shift eastward
today and is being picked up well by the 00Z NMM WRF.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

(Tonight through Tuesday)

The NAM has been the most consistent of the models as of late.   A
notable shortwave will move across the area tonight which will bring
stronger ascent along with strong low moisture convergence ahead of
it.  Will continue with likely or categorical PoPs over the entire
area.  Then Memorial Day still looks mostly dry as subsidence sets
in behind aforementioned shortwave trough.  Will keep high chance
and likely PoPs on Monday night as the next shortwave trough moves
across the area.  Will also keep likely PoPs on Tuesday as yet
another shortwave moves across the area.

Will stick closer to the NAM MOS guidance for temperatures based on
model preference.

(Wednesday through next Saturday)

Will continue to go with chances of showers and thunderstorms for
most of the extended part of the forecast as a series of shortwaves
moves across the area.  A quasi-stationary front will over the area
which is typical for late May and temperatures will be determined be
what side the front is on.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Mid-high level clouds will continue across the area late tonight
with at least light showers moving through COU late tonight and
possibly into UIN towards morning. Could not rule out sprinkles in
the St Louis metro area late tonight, but the better chance of
showers/storms should hold off until Sunday afternoon and night as
a sly low level jet moves through the area. Prevailing cloud
ceilings will also lower on Sunday, likely into the MVFR catagory
in UIN and COU and down to MVFR or at least low end VFR in the St
Louis metro area by afternoon. Sely surface wind will continue
late tonight, becoming relatively strong and gusty from a s-sely
direction on Sunday.

Specifics for KSTL: Prevailing VFR mid level cloudiness late
tonight, then the ceiling will lower into the MVFR or low end VFR
catagory by Sunday afternoon. May be some sprinkles late tonight
from mid level clouds, but the better threat of showers/storms
should occur Sunday afternoon and night. Sely surface wind
late tonight will strengthen and become gusty by late Sunday
morning or afternoon from a s-sely direction.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 240820
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
320 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Will see an gradual increase in rain chances today...particularly
over the western and northern parts of the CWA as the upper ridge
moves off to the east which will allow for southwesterly upper flow
to establish itself over the area.  Large area of rain over central
and western Missouri is being generated in an area of strong low
level moisture convergence under the broad area of upper level
ascent.  This low level moisture convergence will shift eastward
today and is being picked up well by the 00Z NMM WRF.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

(Tonight through Tuesday)

The NAM has been the most consistent of the models as of late.   A
notable shortwave will move across the area tonight which will bring
stronger ascent along with strong low moisture convergence ahead of
it.  Will continue with likely or categorical PoPs over the entire
area.  Then Memorial Day still looks mostly dry as subsidence sets
in behind aforementioned shortwave trough.  Will keep high chance
and likely PoPs on Monday night as the next shortwave trough moves
across the area.  Will also keep likely PoPs on Tuesday as yet
another shortwave moves across the area.

Will stick closer to the NAM MOS guidance for temperatures based on
model preference.

(Wednesday through next Saturday)

Will continue to go with chances of showers and thunderstorms for
most of the extended part of the forecast as a series of shortwaves
moves across the area.  A quasi-stationary front will over the area
which is typical for late May and temperatures will be determined be
what side the front is on.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Mid-high level clouds will continue across the area late tonight
with at least light showers moving through COU late tonight and
possibly into UIN towards morning. Could not rule out sprinkles in
the St Louis metro area late tonight, but the better chance of
showers/storms should hold off until Sunday afternoon and night as
a sly low level jet moves through the area. Prevailing cloud
ceilings will also lower on Sunday, likely into the MVFR catagory
in UIN and COU and down to MVFR or at least low end VFR in the St
Louis metro area by afternoon. Sely surface wind will continue
late tonight, becoming relatively strong and gusty from a s-sely
direction on Sunday.

Specifics for KSTL: Prevailing VFR mid level cloudiness late
tonight, then the ceiling will lower into the MVFR or low end VFR
catagory by Sunday afternoon. May be some sprinkles late tonight
from mid level clouds, but the better threat of showers/storms
should occur Sunday afternoon and night. Sely surface wind
late tonight will strengthen and become gusty by late Sunday
morning or afternoon from a s-sely direction.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 240820
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
320 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Will see an gradual increase in rain chances today...particularly
over the western and northern parts of the CWA as the upper ridge
moves off to the east which will allow for southwesterly upper flow
to establish itself over the area.  Large area of rain over central
and western Missouri is being generated in an area of strong low
level moisture convergence under the broad area of upper level
ascent.  This low level moisture convergence will shift eastward
today and is being picked up well by the 00Z NMM WRF.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

(Tonight through Tuesday)

The NAM has been the most consistent of the models as of late.   A
notable shortwave will move across the area tonight which will bring
stronger ascent along with strong low moisture convergence ahead of
it.  Will continue with likely or categorical PoPs over the entire
area.  Then Memorial Day still looks mostly dry as subsidence sets
in behind aforementioned shortwave trough.  Will keep high chance
and likely PoPs on Monday night as the next shortwave trough moves
across the area.  Will also keep likely PoPs on Tuesday as yet
another shortwave moves across the area.

Will stick closer to the NAM MOS guidance for temperatures based on
model preference.

(Wednesday through next Saturday)

Will continue to go with chances of showers and thunderstorms for
most of the extended part of the forecast as a series of shortwaves
moves across the area.  A quasi-stationary front will over the area
which is typical for late May and temperatures will be determined be
what side the front is on.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Mid-high level clouds will continue across the area late tonight
with at least light showers moving through COU late tonight and
possibly into UIN towards morning. Could not rule out sprinkles in
the St Louis metro area late tonight, but the better chance of
showers/storms should hold off until Sunday afternoon and night as
a sly low level jet moves through the area. Prevailing cloud
ceilings will also lower on Sunday, likely into the MVFR catagory
in UIN and COU and down to MVFR or at least low end VFR in the St
Louis metro area by afternoon. Sely surface wind will continue
late tonight, becoming relatively strong and gusty from a s-sely
direction on Sunday.

Specifics for KSTL: Prevailing VFR mid level cloudiness late
tonight, then the ceiling will lower into the MVFR or low end VFR
catagory by Sunday afternoon. May be some sprinkles late tonight
from mid level clouds, but the better threat of showers/storms
should occur Sunday afternoon and night. Sely surface wind
late tonight will strengthen and become gusty by late Sunday
morning or afternoon from a s-sely direction.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 240820
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
320 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Will see an gradual increase in rain chances today...particularly
over the western and northern parts of the CWA as the upper ridge
moves off to the east which will allow for southwesterly upper flow
to establish itself over the area.  Large area of rain over central
and western Missouri is being generated in an area of strong low
level moisture convergence under the broad area of upper level
ascent.  This low level moisture convergence will shift eastward
today and is being picked up well by the 00Z NMM WRF.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

(Tonight through Tuesday)

The NAM has been the most consistent of the models as of late.   A
notable shortwave will move across the area tonight which will bring
stronger ascent along with strong low moisture convergence ahead of
it.  Will continue with likely or categorical PoPs over the entire
area.  Then Memorial Day still looks mostly dry as subsidence sets
in behind aforementioned shortwave trough.  Will keep high chance
and likely PoPs on Monday night as the next shortwave trough moves
across the area.  Will also keep likely PoPs on Tuesday as yet
another shortwave moves across the area.

Will stick closer to the NAM MOS guidance for temperatures based on
model preference.

(Wednesday through next Saturday)

Will continue to go with chances of showers and thunderstorms for
most of the extended part of the forecast as a series of shortwaves
moves across the area.  A quasi-stationary front will over the area
which is typical for late May and temperatures will be determined be
what side the front is on.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Mid-high level clouds will continue across the area late tonight
with at least light showers moving through COU late tonight and
possibly into UIN towards morning. Could not rule out sprinkles in
the St Louis metro area late tonight, but the better chance of
showers/storms should hold off until Sunday afternoon and night as
a sly low level jet moves through the area. Prevailing cloud
ceilings will also lower on Sunday, likely into the MVFR catagory
in UIN and COU and down to MVFR or at least low end VFR in the St
Louis metro area by afternoon. Sely surface wind will continue
late tonight, becoming relatively strong and gusty from a s-sely
direction on Sunday.

Specifics for KSTL: Prevailing VFR mid level cloudiness late
tonight, then the ceiling will lower into the MVFR or low end VFR
catagory by Sunday afternoon. May be some sprinkles late tonight
from mid level clouds, but the better threat of showers/storms
should occur Sunday afternoon and night. Sely surface wind
late tonight will strengthen and become gusty by late Sunday
morning or afternoon from a s-sely direction.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 240539 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1239 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Rainfall is underway across the region as low level jet continues
to increase overhead. Will be closely monitoring how areas of
convection from the Midwest southward to the Gulf coast behave
over the next few hours. With the low level jet focusing to our
north, better low level theta-e advection will focus to our north
with time. Convection over Texas may have a tendency to interfere
with development further north. It is interesting to note the
cloud top warming over Oklahoma during the past few hours, and
what affect this may have on our heavy rain set up.

Over the next few hours, convective elements developing over
northeastern Oklahoma will continue to stream north and train
over areas along and west of the I-49 corridor. This is the area
of biggest concern for flooding overnight. To this point, light to
moderate rain has affected this area, but rainfall rates will be
increasing over the next hour or so and warnings may be necessary.

The risk for severe storms remains low the rest of tonight. We
will struggle to see instability increase, with MUCAPE nearing 500
J/kg by daybreak. That said, the low level jet is strong and a
rogue 40-50mph localized wind gust will be possible over far
southwestern portions of the outlook area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Widespread rain and convection over the Plains will spread
eastward and impact far eastern Kansas and far western Missouri
this evening into the overnight hours. Expect activity to train
from south to north within deep moisture plume ahead of an upper
low in the Great Basin. A steady low level jet will transport a
moisture rich airmass northward and aid and low level convergence
across the eastern Plains tonight.

This deep moisture plume and low level jet will shift gradually
eastward on Sunday as the upper low out west begins to lift
northeast and an accompanying shortwave rotates northward into the
region. With precipitable water values around 1.75 and 850 MB
dew points around 12 degrees Celsius rainfall rates will be
efficient with total amounts accentuated where training persists.

The greatest potential for excessive rainfall and resultant
flooding will extend from southeastern Kansas to the I-49 corridor
of far western Missouri tonight. This potential will spread east
particularly by Sunday night. The Flash Flood Watch may need to be
expanded farther east with later forecast.

Total rainfall amounts through Sunday night are expected to range
from 1.5 to 2.5 inches at most locations with some areas
particularly across southeastern Kansas into southwestern Missouri
approaching or exceeding 3 inches.

The potential for severe weather on Sunday remains conditional and
marginal at best with the extent of cloud cover and precipitation
inhibiting destabilization of the lower atmosphere.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Expect rain to taper off during the day Monday as the shortwave
lifts to the northeast. However rainfall will increase again
Monday night as yet another shortwave trough tracks northeast into
the region. Will again have to monitor for the potential of heavy
rainfall.

Otherwise the unsettled weather will persist next week with
intermittent chances of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Active weather expected over the next 24 hours as rounds of rain
and embedded thunderstorms spread over the region. Overall, any
vis/cig restrictions with rainfall will be MVFR, though a few
bouts of IFR will be possible (mainly at JLN). Southeast winds
will remain gusty throughout the forecast cycle, with low level
wind shear persisting the rest of tonight into the daylight hours
of Sunday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-
     077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-
     101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 240539 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1239 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Rainfall is underway across the region as low level jet continues
to increase overhead. Will be closely monitoring how areas of
convection from the Midwest southward to the Gulf coast behave
over the next few hours. With the low level jet focusing to our
north, better low level theta-e advection will focus to our north
with time. Convection over Texas may have a tendency to interfere
with development further north. It is interesting to note the
cloud top warming over Oklahoma during the past few hours, and
what affect this may have on our heavy rain set up.

Over the next few hours, convective elements developing over
northeastern Oklahoma will continue to stream north and train
over areas along and west of the I-49 corridor. This is the area
of biggest concern for flooding overnight. To this point, light to
moderate rain has affected this area, but rainfall rates will be
increasing over the next hour or so and warnings may be necessary.

The risk for severe storms remains low the rest of tonight. We
will struggle to see instability increase, with MUCAPE nearing 500
J/kg by daybreak. That said, the low level jet is strong and a
rogue 40-50mph localized wind gust will be possible over far
southwestern portions of the outlook area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Widespread rain and convection over the Plains will spread
eastward and impact far eastern Kansas and far western Missouri
this evening into the overnight hours. Expect activity to train
from south to north within deep moisture plume ahead of an upper
low in the Great Basin. A steady low level jet will transport a
moisture rich airmass northward and aid and low level convergence
across the eastern Plains tonight.

This deep moisture plume and low level jet will shift gradually
eastward on Sunday as the upper low out west begins to lift
northeast and an accompanying shortwave rotates northward into the
region. With precipitable water values around 1.75 and 850 MB
dew points around 12 degrees Celsius rainfall rates will be
efficient with total amounts accentuated where training persists.

The greatest potential for excessive rainfall and resultant
flooding will extend from southeastern Kansas to the I-49 corridor
of far western Missouri tonight. This potential will spread east
particularly by Sunday night. The Flash Flood Watch may need to be
expanded farther east with later forecast.

Total rainfall amounts through Sunday night are expected to range
from 1.5 to 2.5 inches at most locations with some areas
particularly across southeastern Kansas into southwestern Missouri
approaching or exceeding 3 inches.

The potential for severe weather on Sunday remains conditional and
marginal at best with the extent of cloud cover and precipitation
inhibiting destabilization of the lower atmosphere.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Expect rain to taper off during the day Monday as the shortwave
lifts to the northeast. However rainfall will increase again
Monday night as yet another shortwave trough tracks northeast into
the region. Will again have to monitor for the potential of heavy
rainfall.

Otherwise the unsettled weather will persist next week with
intermittent chances of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Active weather expected over the next 24 hours as rounds of rain
and embedded thunderstorms spread over the region. Overall, any
vis/cig restrictions with rainfall will be MVFR, though a few
bouts of IFR will be possible (mainly at JLN). Southeast winds
will remain gusty throughout the forecast cycle, with low level
wind shear persisting the rest of tonight into the daylight hours
of Sunday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-
     077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-
     101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 240539 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1239 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Rainfall is underway across the region as low level jet continues
to increase overhead. Will be closely monitoring how areas of
convection from the Midwest southward to the Gulf coast behave
over the next few hours. With the low level jet focusing to our
north, better low level theta-e advection will focus to our north
with time. Convection over Texas may have a tendency to interfere
with development further north. It is interesting to note the
cloud top warming over Oklahoma during the past few hours, and
what affect this may have on our heavy rain set up.

Over the next few hours, convective elements developing over
northeastern Oklahoma will continue to stream north and train
over areas along and west of the I-49 corridor. This is the area
of biggest concern for flooding overnight. To this point, light to
moderate rain has affected this area, but rainfall rates will be
increasing over the next hour or so and warnings may be necessary.

The risk for severe storms remains low the rest of tonight. We
will struggle to see instability increase, with MUCAPE nearing 500
J/kg by daybreak. That said, the low level jet is strong and a
rogue 40-50mph localized wind gust will be possible over far
southwestern portions of the outlook area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Widespread rain and convection over the Plains will spread
eastward and impact far eastern Kansas and far western Missouri
this evening into the overnight hours. Expect activity to train
from south to north within deep moisture plume ahead of an upper
low in the Great Basin. A steady low level jet will transport a
moisture rich airmass northward and aid and low level convergence
across the eastern Plains tonight.

This deep moisture plume and low level jet will shift gradually
eastward on Sunday as the upper low out west begins to lift
northeast and an accompanying shortwave rotates northward into the
region. With precipitable water values around 1.75 and 850 MB
dew points around 12 degrees Celsius rainfall rates will be
efficient with total amounts accentuated where training persists.

The greatest potential for excessive rainfall and resultant
flooding will extend from southeastern Kansas to the I-49 corridor
of far western Missouri tonight. This potential will spread east
particularly by Sunday night. The Flash Flood Watch may need to be
expanded farther east with later forecast.

Total rainfall amounts through Sunday night are expected to range
from 1.5 to 2.5 inches at most locations with some areas
particularly across southeastern Kansas into southwestern Missouri
approaching or exceeding 3 inches.

The potential for severe weather on Sunday remains conditional and
marginal at best with the extent of cloud cover and precipitation
inhibiting destabilization of the lower atmosphere.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Expect rain to taper off during the day Monday as the shortwave
lifts to the northeast. However rainfall will increase again
Monday night as yet another shortwave trough tracks northeast into
the region. Will again have to monitor for the potential of heavy
rainfall.

Otherwise the unsettled weather will persist next week with
intermittent chances of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Active weather expected over the next 24 hours as rounds of rain
and embedded thunderstorms spread over the region. Overall, any
vis/cig restrictions with rainfall will be MVFR, though a few
bouts of IFR will be possible (mainly at JLN). Southeast winds
will remain gusty throughout the forecast cycle, with low level
wind shear persisting the rest of tonight into the daylight hours
of Sunday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-
     077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-
     101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 240539 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1239 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Rainfall is underway across the region as low level jet continues
to increase overhead. Will be closely monitoring how areas of
convection from the Midwest southward to the Gulf coast behave
over the next few hours. With the low level jet focusing to our
north, better low level theta-e advection will focus to our north
with time. Convection over Texas may have a tendency to interfere
with development further north. It is interesting to note the
cloud top warming over Oklahoma during the past few hours, and
what affect this may have on our heavy rain set up.

Over the next few hours, convective elements developing over
northeastern Oklahoma will continue to stream north and train
over areas along and west of the I-49 corridor. This is the area
of biggest concern for flooding overnight. To this point, light to
moderate rain has affected this area, but rainfall rates will be
increasing over the next hour or so and warnings may be necessary.

The risk for severe storms remains low the rest of tonight. We
will struggle to see instability increase, with MUCAPE nearing 500
J/kg by daybreak. That said, the low level jet is strong and a
rogue 40-50mph localized wind gust will be possible over far
southwestern portions of the outlook area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Widespread rain and convection over the Plains will spread
eastward and impact far eastern Kansas and far western Missouri
this evening into the overnight hours. Expect activity to train
from south to north within deep moisture plume ahead of an upper
low in the Great Basin. A steady low level jet will transport a
moisture rich airmass northward and aid and low level convergence
across the eastern Plains tonight.

This deep moisture plume and low level jet will shift gradually
eastward on Sunday as the upper low out west begins to lift
northeast and an accompanying shortwave rotates northward into the
region. With precipitable water values around 1.75 and 850 MB
dew points around 12 degrees Celsius rainfall rates will be
efficient with total amounts accentuated where training persists.

The greatest potential for excessive rainfall and resultant
flooding will extend from southeastern Kansas to the I-49 corridor
of far western Missouri tonight. This potential will spread east
particularly by Sunday night. The Flash Flood Watch may need to be
expanded farther east with later forecast.

Total rainfall amounts through Sunday night are expected to range
from 1.5 to 2.5 inches at most locations with some areas
particularly across southeastern Kansas into southwestern Missouri
approaching or exceeding 3 inches.

The potential for severe weather on Sunday remains conditional and
marginal at best with the extent of cloud cover and precipitation
inhibiting destabilization of the lower atmosphere.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Expect rain to taper off during the day Monday as the shortwave
lifts to the northeast. However rainfall will increase again
Monday night as yet another shortwave trough tracks northeast into
the region. Will again have to monitor for the potential of heavy
rainfall.

Otherwise the unsettled weather will persist next week with
intermittent chances of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Active weather expected over the next 24 hours as rounds of rain
and embedded thunderstorms spread over the region. Overall, any
vis/cig restrictions with rainfall will be MVFR, though a few
bouts of IFR will be possible (mainly at JLN). Southeast winds
will remain gusty throughout the forecast cycle, with low level
wind shear persisting the rest of tonight into the daylight hours
of Sunday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-
     077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-
     101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KLSX 240428
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1128 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 857 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Forecast for the most part on track and have only made small
adjustments based on latest radar trends and incorporating high
temporal res model output. Small notch of rain is expected to edge
the western edge of the CWA thru midnight with pcpn in its wake to
the S-SW expected to fill in, especially as line of storms pushes
east thru OK and contributes to an expansion of the area of
enhanced stratiform rain to the north. This should result in high
PoPs for an area roughly west of a line from UIN-COU for late
evening and overnight with minimal PoPs or dry elsewhere.

One exception which has some support amongst many of the short-
term models is the idea of isolated-scattered SHRA developing over
far SE MO around daybreak and moving north towards STL metro
Sunday morning. At this point, the models still agree on a general
expansion of SHRA/TSRA coverage as we head into the afternoon
hours.

TES

&&

.SYNOPSIS:
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

The middle to upper levels of the atmosphere feature a deep trof
of low pressure centered over the Four-Corners Region with
resulting southwest flow downstream across the southern Plains.
Embedded shortwave in this flow continues to produce heavy showers
and thunderstorms across KS and OK. Further east, weak warm
advection and moisture convergence along and north of the 850mb
warm front was responsible for isolated to widely scattered
showers across mainly southwest Missouri.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tuesday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Tonight...
Main thrust of precipitation should remain just to the west of the
CWA through tomorrow morning with the highest PoPs and QPF
concentrated across our central and northeast MO counties. That
doesn`t mean it will be completlely dry though, as isolated to
scattered showers cannot be ruled out as far east as the Mississippi
River as the 850mb warm front lifts north.

Sunday...
Appears that the first round of precipitation should pull northeast
of central and northeast MO during the morning hours with a threat
of renewed thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening
areawide. Have maintained general trend of chance/sct PoP increasing
to likely during the afternoon, especially west of I-55. Believe
there will be enough dry time for temperatures to warm into the
upper 70s/lower 80s.

Sunday Night...
Not sure exactly how Sunday night will play out, as it will depend
on convective trends during the afternoon and evening. Model
guidance depicts a decent shortwave moving northeast across the area
which would make one think there should be some pretty good coverage
of precipitation. I have kept a blanket of categorical PoPs based on
pattern recognition more than anything.

Memorial Day...
At this point it looks like the vast majority of the area will be
dry on Memorial Day as the shortwave lifts northeast of the area and
we are located in area of subsidence for the daylight hours. I
suppose I can`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm developing since
we are still in southwest flow aloft and will be quite unstable, but
chances are pretty low since there is no obvious trigger.
Temperatures should be quite warm for the unofficial start of summer
with highs in the lower to middle 80s.

Monday night and Tuesday...
Next shortwave in the southwest flow parade will bring a renewed
threat of showers and thunderstorms to the CWA Monday night into
Tuesday. Temperatures may struggle some on Tuesday with cloud cover
and expected rain coverage, so knocked anticipated highs down a few
degrees across the southeastern half of the CWA.

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday Night through Next Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

The pattern looks to remain quite active with southwest flow
expected through the period. Each shortwave will bring with it a
chance of thunderstorms and temperatures should remain warm, with
afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Mid-high level clouds will continue across the area late tonight
with at least light showers moving through COU late tonight and
possibly into UIN towards morning. Could not rule out sprinkles in
the St Louis metro area late tonight, but the better chance of
showers/storms should hold off until Sunday afternoon and night as
a sly low level jet moves through the area. Prevailing cloud
ceilings will also lower on Sunday, likely into the MVFR catagory
in UIN and COU and down to MVFR or at least low end VFR in the St
Louis metro area by afternoon. Sely surface wind will continue
late tonight, becoming relatively strong and gusty from a s-sely
direction on Sunday.

Specifics for KSTL: Prevailing VFR mid level cloudiness late
tonight, then the ceiling will lower into the MVFR or low end VFR
catagory by Sunday afternoon. May be some sprinkles late tonight
from mid level clouds, but the better threat of showers/storms
should occur Sunday afternoon and night. Sely surface wind
late tonight will strengthen and become gusty by late Sunday
morning or afternoon from a s-sely direction.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 240428
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1128 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 857 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Forecast for the most part on track and have only made small
adjustments based on latest radar trends and incorporating high
temporal res model output. Small notch of rain is expected to edge
the western edge of the CWA thru midnight with pcpn in its wake to
the S-SW expected to fill in, especially as line of storms pushes
east thru OK and contributes to an expansion of the area of
enhanced stratiform rain to the north. This should result in high
PoPs for an area roughly west of a line from UIN-COU for late
evening and overnight with minimal PoPs or dry elsewhere.

One exception which has some support amongst many of the short-
term models is the idea of isolated-scattered SHRA developing over
far SE MO around daybreak and moving north towards STL metro
Sunday morning. At this point, the models still agree on a general
expansion of SHRA/TSRA coverage as we head into the afternoon
hours.

TES

&&

.SYNOPSIS:
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

The middle to upper levels of the atmosphere feature a deep trof
of low pressure centered over the Four-Corners Region with
resulting southwest flow downstream across the southern Plains.
Embedded shortwave in this flow continues to produce heavy showers
and thunderstorms across KS and OK. Further east, weak warm
advection and moisture convergence along and north of the 850mb
warm front was responsible for isolated to widely scattered
showers across mainly southwest Missouri.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tuesday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Tonight...
Main thrust of precipitation should remain just to the west of the
CWA through tomorrow morning with the highest PoPs and QPF
concentrated across our central and northeast MO counties. That
doesn`t mean it will be completlely dry though, as isolated to
scattered showers cannot be ruled out as far east as the Mississippi
River as the 850mb warm front lifts north.

Sunday...
Appears that the first round of precipitation should pull northeast
of central and northeast MO during the morning hours with a threat
of renewed thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening
areawide. Have maintained general trend of chance/sct PoP increasing
to likely during the afternoon, especially west of I-55. Believe
there will be enough dry time for temperatures to warm into the
upper 70s/lower 80s.

Sunday Night...
Not sure exactly how Sunday night will play out, as it will depend
on convective trends during the afternoon and evening. Model
guidance depicts a decent shortwave moving northeast across the area
which would make one think there should be some pretty good coverage
of precipitation. I have kept a blanket of categorical PoPs based on
pattern recognition more than anything.

Memorial Day...
At this point it looks like the vast majority of the area will be
dry on Memorial Day as the shortwave lifts northeast of the area and
we are located in area of subsidence for the daylight hours. I
suppose I can`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm developing since
we are still in southwest flow aloft and will be quite unstable, but
chances are pretty low since there is no obvious trigger.
Temperatures should be quite warm for the unofficial start of summer
with highs in the lower to middle 80s.

Monday night and Tuesday...
Next shortwave in the southwest flow parade will bring a renewed
threat of showers and thunderstorms to the CWA Monday night into
Tuesday. Temperatures may struggle some on Tuesday with cloud cover
and expected rain coverage, so knocked anticipated highs down a few
degrees across the southeastern half of the CWA.

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday Night through Next Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

The pattern looks to remain quite active with southwest flow
expected through the period. Each shortwave will bring with it a
chance of thunderstorms and temperatures should remain warm, with
afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Mid-high level clouds will continue across the area late tonight
with at least light showers moving through COU late tonight and
possibly into UIN towards morning. Could not rule out sprinkles in
the St Louis metro area late tonight, but the better chance of
showers/storms should hold off until Sunday afternoon and night as
a sly low level jet moves through the area. Prevailing cloud
ceilings will also lower on Sunday, likely into the MVFR catagory
in UIN and COU and down to MVFR or at least low end VFR in the St
Louis metro area by afternoon. Sely surface wind will continue
late tonight, becoming relatively strong and gusty from a s-sely
direction on Sunday.

Specifics for KSTL: Prevailing VFR mid level cloudiness late
tonight, then the ceiling will lower into the MVFR or low end VFR
catagory by Sunday afternoon. May be some sprinkles late tonight
from mid level clouds, but the better threat of showers/storms
should occur Sunday afternoon and night. Sely surface wind
late tonight will strengthen and become gusty by late Sunday
morning or afternoon from a s-sely direction.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 240428
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1128 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 857 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Forecast for the most part on track and have only made small
adjustments based on latest radar trends and incorporating high
temporal res model output. Small notch of rain is expected to edge
the western edge of the CWA thru midnight with pcpn in its wake to
the S-SW expected to fill in, especially as line of storms pushes
east thru OK and contributes to an expansion of the area of
enhanced stratiform rain to the north. This should result in high
PoPs for an area roughly west of a line from UIN-COU for late
evening and overnight with minimal PoPs or dry elsewhere.

One exception which has some support amongst many of the short-
term models is the idea of isolated-scattered SHRA developing over
far SE MO around daybreak and moving north towards STL metro
Sunday morning. At this point, the models still agree on a general
expansion of SHRA/TSRA coverage as we head into the afternoon
hours.

TES

&&

.SYNOPSIS:
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

The middle to upper levels of the atmosphere feature a deep trof
of low pressure centered over the Four-Corners Region with
resulting southwest flow downstream across the southern Plains.
Embedded shortwave in this flow continues to produce heavy showers
and thunderstorms across KS and OK. Further east, weak warm
advection and moisture convergence along and north of the 850mb
warm front was responsible for isolated to widely scattered
showers across mainly southwest Missouri.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tuesday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Tonight...
Main thrust of precipitation should remain just to the west of the
CWA through tomorrow morning with the highest PoPs and QPF
concentrated across our central and northeast MO counties. That
doesn`t mean it will be completlely dry though, as isolated to
scattered showers cannot be ruled out as far east as the Mississippi
River as the 850mb warm front lifts north.

Sunday...
Appears that the first round of precipitation should pull northeast
of central and northeast MO during the morning hours with a threat
of renewed thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening
areawide. Have maintained general trend of chance/sct PoP increasing
to likely during the afternoon, especially west of I-55. Believe
there will be enough dry time for temperatures to warm into the
upper 70s/lower 80s.

Sunday Night...
Not sure exactly how Sunday night will play out, as it will depend
on convective trends during the afternoon and evening. Model
guidance depicts a decent shortwave moving northeast across the area
which would make one think there should be some pretty good coverage
of precipitation. I have kept a blanket of categorical PoPs based on
pattern recognition more than anything.

Memorial Day...
At this point it looks like the vast majority of the area will be
dry on Memorial Day as the shortwave lifts northeast of the area and
we are located in area of subsidence for the daylight hours. I
suppose I can`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm developing since
we are still in southwest flow aloft and will be quite unstable, but
chances are pretty low since there is no obvious trigger.
Temperatures should be quite warm for the unofficial start of summer
with highs in the lower to middle 80s.

Monday night and Tuesday...
Next shortwave in the southwest flow parade will bring a renewed
threat of showers and thunderstorms to the CWA Monday night into
Tuesday. Temperatures may struggle some on Tuesday with cloud cover
and expected rain coverage, so knocked anticipated highs down a few
degrees across the southeastern half of the CWA.

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday Night through Next Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

The pattern looks to remain quite active with southwest flow
expected through the period. Each shortwave will bring with it a
chance of thunderstorms and temperatures should remain warm, with
afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Mid-high level clouds will continue across the area late tonight
with at least light showers moving through COU late tonight and
possibly into UIN towards morning. Could not rule out sprinkles in
the St Louis metro area late tonight, but the better chance of
showers/storms should hold off until Sunday afternoon and night as
a sly low level jet moves through the area. Prevailing cloud
ceilings will also lower on Sunday, likely into the MVFR catagory
in UIN and COU and down to MVFR or at least low end VFR in the St
Louis metro area by afternoon. Sely surface wind will continue
late tonight, becoming relatively strong and gusty from a s-sely
direction on Sunday.

Specifics for KSTL: Prevailing VFR mid level cloudiness late
tonight, then the ceiling will lower into the MVFR or low end VFR
catagory by Sunday afternoon. May be some sprinkles late tonight
from mid level clouds, but the better threat of showers/storms
should occur Sunday afternoon and night. Sely surface wind
late tonight will strengthen and become gusty by late Sunday
morning or afternoon from a s-sely direction.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 240428
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1128 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 857 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Forecast for the most part on track and have only made small
adjustments based on latest radar trends and incorporating high
temporal res model output. Small notch of rain is expected to edge
the western edge of the CWA thru midnight with pcpn in its wake to
the S-SW expected to fill in, especially as line of storms pushes
east thru OK and contributes to an expansion of the area of
enhanced stratiform rain to the north. This should result in high
PoPs for an area roughly west of a line from UIN-COU for late
evening and overnight with minimal PoPs or dry elsewhere.

One exception which has some support amongst many of the short-
term models is the idea of isolated-scattered SHRA developing over
far SE MO around daybreak and moving north towards STL metro
Sunday morning. At this point, the models still agree on a general
expansion of SHRA/TSRA coverage as we head into the afternoon
hours.

TES

&&

.SYNOPSIS:
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

The middle to upper levels of the atmosphere feature a deep trof
of low pressure centered over the Four-Corners Region with
resulting southwest flow downstream across the southern Plains.
Embedded shortwave in this flow continues to produce heavy showers
and thunderstorms across KS and OK. Further east, weak warm
advection and moisture convergence along and north of the 850mb
warm front was responsible for isolated to widely scattered
showers across mainly southwest Missouri.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tuesday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Tonight...
Main thrust of precipitation should remain just to the west of the
CWA through tomorrow morning with the highest PoPs and QPF
concentrated across our central and northeast MO counties. That
doesn`t mean it will be completlely dry though, as isolated to
scattered showers cannot be ruled out as far east as the Mississippi
River as the 850mb warm front lifts north.

Sunday...
Appears that the first round of precipitation should pull northeast
of central and northeast MO during the morning hours with a threat
of renewed thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening
areawide. Have maintained general trend of chance/sct PoP increasing
to likely during the afternoon, especially west of I-55. Believe
there will be enough dry time for temperatures to warm into the
upper 70s/lower 80s.

Sunday Night...
Not sure exactly how Sunday night will play out, as it will depend
on convective trends during the afternoon and evening. Model
guidance depicts a decent shortwave moving northeast across the area
which would make one think there should be some pretty good coverage
of precipitation. I have kept a blanket of categorical PoPs based on
pattern recognition more than anything.

Memorial Day...
At this point it looks like the vast majority of the area will be
dry on Memorial Day as the shortwave lifts northeast of the area and
we are located in area of subsidence for the daylight hours. I
suppose I can`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm developing since
we are still in southwest flow aloft and will be quite unstable, but
chances are pretty low since there is no obvious trigger.
Temperatures should be quite warm for the unofficial start of summer
with highs in the lower to middle 80s.

Monday night and Tuesday...
Next shortwave in the southwest flow parade will bring a renewed
threat of showers and thunderstorms to the CWA Monday night into
Tuesday. Temperatures may struggle some on Tuesday with cloud cover
and expected rain coverage, so knocked anticipated highs down a few
degrees across the southeastern half of the CWA.

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday Night through Next Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

The pattern looks to remain quite active with southwest flow
expected through the period. Each shortwave will bring with it a
chance of thunderstorms and temperatures should remain warm, with
afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Mid-high level clouds will continue across the area late tonight
with at least light showers moving through COU late tonight and
possibly into UIN towards morning. Could not rule out sprinkles in
the St Louis metro area late tonight, but the better chance of
showers/storms should hold off until Sunday afternoon and night as
a sly low level jet moves through the area. Prevailing cloud
ceilings will also lower on Sunday, likely into the MVFR catagory
in UIN and COU and down to MVFR or at least low end VFR in the St
Louis metro area by afternoon. Sely surface wind will continue
late tonight, becoming relatively strong and gusty from a s-sely
direction on Sunday.

Specifics for KSTL: Prevailing VFR mid level cloudiness late
tonight, then the ceiling will lower into the MVFR or low end VFR
catagory by Sunday afternoon. May be some sprinkles late tonight
from mid level clouds, but the better threat of showers/storms
should occur Sunday afternoon and night. Sely surface wind
late tonight will strengthen and become gusty by late Sunday
morning or afternoon from a s-sely direction.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 240413
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1113 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Initial warm air advection shwrs/iso storms now developing across far
southwestern portions of our CWA this afternoon...all in advance of
main warn front which still resides down across the Southern Plains.
To our west...all eyes on a line of convection which has been in
place much of the morning and now extends from near Topeka south
into central Oklahoma and the Panhandle of Texas. Speed/distance tool
would suggest this activity to work into the greater KC area shortly
after 7 PM if initial movement and speed are maintained. Once it does
move in...a prolonged period of light to moderate rainfall is
expected...with additional energy expected to arrive overnight as
an MCV from the west Texas/southwest Oklahoma activity tracks north
with time. As has been highlighted in recent days...atmospheric
moisture content remains very high (PWATs 2-3 standard deviations
above normal) and a strengthening low-level jet overnight will lead
to increased moisture convergence across the lower Missouri
Vly...especially from 6z onwards. The end result will likely be
rainfall totals in the 1-2" range across portions of the area by 12z
Sunday (especially west of Route 65). Latest forecast soundings for
the area show a few hundred joules of elevated CAPE overnight which
should support weak convection as activity intensifies. Convective
rainfall rates combined with anomalously high atmospheric moisture
should lead to efficient rainfall production as warm cloud layer
depths remain in excess of 10kft. See absolutely no reason to change
the flash flood watch at this point...and later shifts may need to
consider expanding once trends become better established with
current/future convection.

No real change to the line of thinking for Sunday as the day looks
very wet and unsettled. Initial round of moderate to locally heavy
rains should be pulling off to our north Sunday morning...however
latest NAM and GFS models continue to show redeveloping shwrs/storms
by early afternoon across the western CWA as a weak sfc and 850-hPa
low center track north along a density discontinuity in place along
the Missouri/Kansas border. Additionally...next upstream shortwave
expected to approach the area during the afternoon hrs as main
western U.S. trough ejects into the central High Plains. With no
change in airmass expected...rainfall tomorrow should remain highly
efficient which combined with slightly better instability...will
support a continued flood threat through the day and evening hours.
If this develops as advertised...its conceivable to see another inch
along and west of Route 65...with lower amounts further east. Based
on everything listed above...main concerns remain focused on area
rivers and streams as many still remain high due to heavy rains last
week.

Light at the end of the tunnel finally begins to show itself late
Sunday night/early Monday as previously mentioned sfc low and
shortwave track north into the upper Mississippi Vly. While region
will reside solidly in the warm sector with no cold frontal
passage...latest model trends would suggest high atmospheric moisture
content will be scoured out to some degree following the passage of
said features Sunday night. Despite this...shwrs/storms look
possible by Monday afternoon especially across northwest
Missouri/northeast Kansas as next upstream upper wave approaches.
With a fair amount of instability in place...cannot rule out a few
strong/severe storms as better wind fields move in aloft.

Beyond this...much of next week continues to look unsettled with
repeated rounds for shwrs/storms just about each day. Main cold front
associated with western U.S. trough expected to approach the area
Tuesday night...and stall across the northern CWA by early Wednesday.
This feature will act as a focusing mechanism for renewed convection
before main feature passes later the week/early next weekend. If
there/s any silver lining to be had from what appears to be non-
stopped rain chances through next week...at least the grass will
stay green...

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1113 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Moderate rain will continue to spread north northeast through at
least 12z at all TAF sites. Visibilities will be generally MVFR, but
could occasionally drop to IFR in periods of heavy rain. Ceilings
will progressively lower over the next few hours, likely lowering
into the IFR category by 09z. Rain will eventually push off to the
east but may not clear up entirely, possibly leaving a few very
isolated light showers for the remainder of Sunday. Surface winds
should remain 10-12 kts and prevent low-level wind shear concerns,
but winds at 2-3 kft will increase sharply to 40-50 kts over the
next few hours from the south southwest.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 240413
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1113 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Initial warm air advection shwrs/iso storms now developing across far
southwestern portions of our CWA this afternoon...all in advance of
main warn front which still resides down across the Southern Plains.
To our west...all eyes on a line of convection which has been in
place much of the morning and now extends from near Topeka south
into central Oklahoma and the Panhandle of Texas. Speed/distance tool
would suggest this activity to work into the greater KC area shortly
after 7 PM if initial movement and speed are maintained. Once it does
move in...a prolonged period of light to moderate rainfall is
expected...with additional energy expected to arrive overnight as
an MCV from the west Texas/southwest Oklahoma activity tracks north
with time. As has been highlighted in recent days...atmospheric
moisture content remains very high (PWATs 2-3 standard deviations
above normal) and a strengthening low-level jet overnight will lead
to increased moisture convergence across the lower Missouri
Vly...especially from 6z onwards. The end result will likely be
rainfall totals in the 1-2" range across portions of the area by 12z
Sunday (especially west of Route 65). Latest forecast soundings for
the area show a few hundred joules of elevated CAPE overnight which
should support weak convection as activity intensifies. Convective
rainfall rates combined with anomalously high atmospheric moisture
should lead to efficient rainfall production as warm cloud layer
depths remain in excess of 10kft. See absolutely no reason to change
the flash flood watch at this point...and later shifts may need to
consider expanding once trends become better established with
current/future convection.

No real change to the line of thinking for Sunday as the day looks
very wet and unsettled. Initial round of moderate to locally heavy
rains should be pulling off to our north Sunday morning...however
latest NAM and GFS models continue to show redeveloping shwrs/storms
by early afternoon across the western CWA as a weak sfc and 850-hPa
low center track north along a density discontinuity in place along
the Missouri/Kansas border. Additionally...next upstream shortwave
expected to approach the area during the afternoon hrs as main
western U.S. trough ejects into the central High Plains. With no
change in airmass expected...rainfall tomorrow should remain highly
efficient which combined with slightly better instability...will
support a continued flood threat through the day and evening hours.
If this develops as advertised...its conceivable to see another inch
along and west of Route 65...with lower amounts further east. Based
on everything listed above...main concerns remain focused on area
rivers and streams as many still remain high due to heavy rains last
week.

Light at the end of the tunnel finally begins to show itself late
Sunday night/early Monday as previously mentioned sfc low and
shortwave track north into the upper Mississippi Vly. While region
will reside solidly in the warm sector with no cold frontal
passage...latest model trends would suggest high atmospheric moisture
content will be scoured out to some degree following the passage of
said features Sunday night. Despite this...shwrs/storms look
possible by Monday afternoon especially across northwest
Missouri/northeast Kansas as next upstream upper wave approaches.
With a fair amount of instability in place...cannot rule out a few
strong/severe storms as better wind fields move in aloft.

Beyond this...much of next week continues to look unsettled with
repeated rounds for shwrs/storms just about each day. Main cold front
associated with western U.S. trough expected to approach the area
Tuesday night...and stall across the northern CWA by early Wednesday.
This feature will act as a focusing mechanism for renewed convection
before main feature passes later the week/early next weekend. If
there/s any silver lining to be had from what appears to be non-
stopped rain chances through next week...at least the grass will
stay green...

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1113 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Moderate rain will continue to spread north northeast through at
least 12z at all TAF sites. Visibilities will be generally MVFR, but
could occasionally drop to IFR in periods of heavy rain. Ceilings
will progressively lower over the next few hours, likely lowering
into the IFR category by 09z. Rain will eventually push off to the
east but may not clear up entirely, possibly leaving a few very
isolated light showers for the remainder of Sunday. Surface winds
should remain 10-12 kts and prevent low-level wind shear concerns,
but winds at 2-3 kft will increase sharply to 40-50 kts over the
next few hours from the south southwest.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KEAX 240413
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1113 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Initial warm air advection shwrs/iso storms now developing across far
southwestern portions of our CWA this afternoon...all in advance of
main warn front which still resides down across the Southern Plains.
To our west...all eyes on a line of convection which has been in
place much of the morning and now extends from near Topeka south
into central Oklahoma and the Panhandle of Texas. Speed/distance tool
would suggest this activity to work into the greater KC area shortly
after 7 PM if initial movement and speed are maintained. Once it does
move in...a prolonged period of light to moderate rainfall is
expected...with additional energy expected to arrive overnight as
an MCV from the west Texas/southwest Oklahoma activity tracks north
with time. As has been highlighted in recent days...atmospheric
moisture content remains very high (PWATs 2-3 standard deviations
above normal) and a strengthening low-level jet overnight will lead
to increased moisture convergence across the lower Missouri
Vly...especially from 6z onwards. The end result will likely be
rainfall totals in the 1-2" range across portions of the area by 12z
Sunday (especially west of Route 65). Latest forecast soundings for
the area show a few hundred joules of elevated CAPE overnight which
should support weak convection as activity intensifies. Convective
rainfall rates combined with anomalously high atmospheric moisture
should lead to efficient rainfall production as warm cloud layer
depths remain in excess of 10kft. See absolutely no reason to change
the flash flood watch at this point...and later shifts may need to
consider expanding once trends become better established with
current/future convection.

No real change to the line of thinking for Sunday as the day looks
very wet and unsettled. Initial round of moderate to locally heavy
rains should be pulling off to our north Sunday morning...however
latest NAM and GFS models continue to show redeveloping shwrs/storms
by early afternoon across the western CWA as a weak sfc and 850-hPa
low center track north along a density discontinuity in place along
the Missouri/Kansas border. Additionally...next upstream shortwave
expected to approach the area during the afternoon hrs as main
western U.S. trough ejects into the central High Plains. With no
change in airmass expected...rainfall tomorrow should remain highly
efficient which combined with slightly better instability...will
support a continued flood threat through the day and evening hours.
If this develops as advertised...its conceivable to see another inch
along and west of Route 65...with lower amounts further east. Based
on everything listed above...main concerns remain focused on area
rivers and streams as many still remain high due to heavy rains last
week.

Light at the end of the tunnel finally begins to show itself late
Sunday night/early Monday as previously mentioned sfc low and
shortwave track north into the upper Mississippi Vly. While region
will reside solidly in the warm sector with no cold frontal
passage...latest model trends would suggest high atmospheric moisture
content will be scoured out to some degree following the passage of
said features Sunday night. Despite this...shwrs/storms look
possible by Monday afternoon especially across northwest
Missouri/northeast Kansas as next upstream upper wave approaches.
With a fair amount of instability in place...cannot rule out a few
strong/severe storms as better wind fields move in aloft.

Beyond this...much of next week continues to look unsettled with
repeated rounds for shwrs/storms just about each day. Main cold front
associated with western U.S. trough expected to approach the area
Tuesday night...and stall across the northern CWA by early Wednesday.
This feature will act as a focusing mechanism for renewed convection
before main feature passes later the week/early next weekend. If
there/s any silver lining to be had from what appears to be non-
stopped rain chances through next week...at least the grass will
stay green...

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1113 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Moderate rain will continue to spread north northeast through at
least 12z at all TAF sites. Visibilities will be generally MVFR, but
could occasionally drop to IFR in periods of heavy rain. Ceilings
will progressively lower over the next few hours, likely lowering
into the IFR category by 09z. Rain will eventually push off to the
east but may not clear up entirely, possibly leaving a few very
isolated light showers for the remainder of Sunday. Surface winds
should remain 10-12 kts and prevent low-level wind shear concerns,
but winds at 2-3 kft will increase sharply to 40-50 kts over the
next few hours from the south southwest.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 240413
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1113 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Initial warm air advection shwrs/iso storms now developing across far
southwestern portions of our CWA this afternoon...all in advance of
main warn front which still resides down across the Southern Plains.
To our west...all eyes on a line of convection which has been in
place much of the morning and now extends from near Topeka south
into central Oklahoma and the Panhandle of Texas. Speed/distance tool
would suggest this activity to work into the greater KC area shortly
after 7 PM if initial movement and speed are maintained. Once it does
move in...a prolonged period of light to moderate rainfall is
expected...with additional energy expected to arrive overnight as
an MCV from the west Texas/southwest Oklahoma activity tracks north
with time. As has been highlighted in recent days...atmospheric
moisture content remains very high (PWATs 2-3 standard deviations
above normal) and a strengthening low-level jet overnight will lead
to increased moisture convergence across the lower Missouri
Vly...especially from 6z onwards. The end result will likely be
rainfall totals in the 1-2" range across portions of the area by 12z
Sunday (especially west of Route 65). Latest forecast soundings for
the area show a few hundred joules of elevated CAPE overnight which
should support weak convection as activity intensifies. Convective
rainfall rates combined with anomalously high atmospheric moisture
should lead to efficient rainfall production as warm cloud layer
depths remain in excess of 10kft. See absolutely no reason to change
the flash flood watch at this point...and later shifts may need to
consider expanding once trends become better established with
current/future convection.

No real change to the line of thinking for Sunday as the day looks
very wet and unsettled. Initial round of moderate to locally heavy
rains should be pulling off to our north Sunday morning...however
latest NAM and GFS models continue to show redeveloping shwrs/storms
by early afternoon across the western CWA as a weak sfc and 850-hPa
low center track north along a density discontinuity in place along
the Missouri/Kansas border. Additionally...next upstream shortwave
expected to approach the area during the afternoon hrs as main
western U.S. trough ejects into the central High Plains. With no
change in airmass expected...rainfall tomorrow should remain highly
efficient which combined with slightly better instability...will
support a continued flood threat through the day and evening hours.
If this develops as advertised...its conceivable to see another inch
along and west of Route 65...with lower amounts further east. Based
on everything listed above...main concerns remain focused on area
rivers and streams as many still remain high due to heavy rains last
week.

Light at the end of the tunnel finally begins to show itself late
Sunday night/early Monday as previously mentioned sfc low and
shortwave track north into the upper Mississippi Vly. While region
will reside solidly in the warm sector with no cold frontal
passage...latest model trends would suggest high atmospheric moisture
content will be scoured out to some degree following the passage of
said features Sunday night. Despite this...shwrs/storms look
possible by Monday afternoon especially across northwest
Missouri/northeast Kansas as next upstream upper wave approaches.
With a fair amount of instability in place...cannot rule out a few
strong/severe storms as better wind fields move in aloft.

Beyond this...much of next week continues to look unsettled with
repeated rounds for shwrs/storms just about each day. Main cold front
associated with western U.S. trough expected to approach the area
Tuesday night...and stall across the northern CWA by early Wednesday.
This feature will act as a focusing mechanism for renewed convection
before main feature passes later the week/early next weekend. If
there/s any silver lining to be had from what appears to be non-
stopped rain chances through next week...at least the grass will
stay green...

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1113 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Moderate rain will continue to spread north northeast through at
least 12z at all TAF sites. Visibilities will be generally MVFR, but
could occasionally drop to IFR in periods of heavy rain. Ceilings
will progressively lower over the next few hours, likely lowering
into the IFR category by 09z. Rain will eventually push off to the
east but may not clear up entirely, possibly leaving a few very
isolated light showers for the remainder of Sunday. Surface winds
should remain 10-12 kts and prevent low-level wind shear concerns,
but winds at 2-3 kft will increase sharply to 40-50 kts over the
next few hours from the south southwest.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KLSX 240157
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
857 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 857 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Forecast for the most part on track and have only made small
adjustments based on latest radar trends and incorporating high
temporal res model output. Small notch of rain is expected to edge
the western edge of the CWA thru midnight with pcpn in its wake to
the S-SW expected to fill in, especially as line of storms pushes
east thru OK and contributes to an expansion of the area of
enhanced stratiform rain to the north. This should result in high
PoPs for an area roughly west of a line from UIN-COU for late
evening and overnight with minimal PoPs or dry elsewhere.

One exception which has some support amongst many of the short-
term models is the idea of isolated-scattered SHRA developing over
far SE MO around daybreak and moving north towards STL metro
Sunday morning. At this point, the models still agree on a general
expansion of SHRA/TSRA coverage as we head into the afternoon
hours.

TES

&&

.SYNOPSIS:
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

The middle to upper levels of the atmosphere feature a deep trof
of low pressure centered over the Four-Corners Region with
resulting southwest flow downstream across the southern Plains.
Embedded shortwave in this flow continues to produce heavy showers
and thunderstorms across KS and OK. Further east, weak warm
advection and moisture convergence along and north of the 850mb
warm front was responsible for isolated to widely scattered
showers across mainly southwest Missouri.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tuesday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Tonight...
Main thrust of precipitation should remain just to the west of the
CWA through tomorrow morning with the highest PoPs and QPF
concentrated across our central and northeast MO counties. That
doesn`t mean it will be completlely dry though, as isolated to
scattered showers cannot be ruled out as far east as the Mississippi
River as the 850mb warm front lifts north.

Sunday...
Appears that the first round of precipitation should pull northeast
of central and northeast MO during the morning hours with a threat
of renewed thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening
areawide. Have maintained general trend of chance/sct PoP increasing
to likely during the afternoon, especially west of I-55. Believe
there will be enough dry time for temperatures to warm into the
upper 70s/lower 80s.

Sunday Night...
Not sure exactly how Sunday night will play out, as it will depend
on convective trends during the afternoon and evening. Model
guidance depicts a decent shortwave moving northeast across the area
which would make one think there should be some pretty good coverage
of precipitation. I have kept a blanket of categorical PoPs based on
pattern recognition more than anything.

Memorial Day...
At this point it looks like the vast majority of the area will be
dry on Memorial Day as the shortwave lifts northeast of the area and
we are located in area of subsidence for the daylight hours. I
suppose I can`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm developing since
we are still in southwest flow aloft and will be quite unstable, but
chances are pretty low since there is no obvious trigger.
Temperatures should be quite warm for the unofficial start of summer
with highs in the lower to middle 80s.

Monday night and Tuesday...
Next shortwave in the southwest flow parade will bring a renewed
threat of showers and thunderstorms to the CWA Monday night into
Tuesday. Temperatures may struggle some on Tuesday with cloud cover
and expected rain coverage, so knocked anticipated highs down a few
degrees across the southeastern half of the CWA.

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday Night through Next Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

The pattern looks to remain quite active with southwest flow
expected through the period. Each shortwave will bring with it a
chance of thunderstorms and temperatures should remain warm, with
afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 533 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Mid-high level clouds will continue across the area tonight with
showers likely moving through COU late tonight and into UIN
towards morning. Could not rule out sprinkles in the St Louis
metro area tonight, but the better chance of showers/storms should
hold off until Sunday afternoon and evening as a sly low level jet
moves through the area. Prevailing cloud ceilings will also lower
on Sunday, likely into the MVFR catagory in UIN and COU and down to
MVFR or at least low end VFR in the St Louis metro area by
afternoon. Sely surface wind will continue tonight, becoming
relatively strong and gusty from a s-sely direction on Sunday.

Specifics for KSTL: Prevailing VFR mid level cloudiness tonight,
then the ceiling will lower into the MVFR or low end VFR catagory
by Sunday afternoon. May be some sprinkles tonight from mid level
clouds, but the better threat of showers/storms should occur
Sunday afternoon and evening. Sely surface wind tonight will
strengthen and become gusty by late Sunday morning or afternoon
from a s-sely direction.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 240157
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
857 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 857 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Forecast for the most part on track and have only made small
adjustments based on latest radar trends and incorporating high
temporal res model output. Small notch of rain is expected to edge
the western edge of the CWA thru midnight with pcpn in its wake to
the S-SW expected to fill in, especially as line of storms pushes
east thru OK and contributes to an expansion of the area of
enhanced stratiform rain to the north. This should result in high
PoPs for an area roughly west of a line from UIN-COU for late
evening and overnight with minimal PoPs or dry elsewhere.

One exception which has some support amongst many of the short-
term models is the idea of isolated-scattered SHRA developing over
far SE MO around daybreak and moving north towards STL metro
Sunday morning. At this point, the models still agree on a general
expansion of SHRA/TSRA coverage as we head into the afternoon
hours.

TES

&&

.SYNOPSIS:
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

The middle to upper levels of the atmosphere feature a deep trof
of low pressure centered over the Four-Corners Region with
resulting southwest flow downstream across the southern Plains.
Embedded shortwave in this flow continues to produce heavy showers
and thunderstorms across KS and OK. Further east, weak warm
advection and moisture convergence along and north of the 850mb
warm front was responsible for isolated to widely scattered
showers across mainly southwest Missouri.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tuesday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Tonight...
Main thrust of precipitation should remain just to the west of the
CWA through tomorrow morning with the highest PoPs and QPF
concentrated across our central and northeast MO counties. That
doesn`t mean it will be completlely dry though, as isolated to
scattered showers cannot be ruled out as far east as the Mississippi
River as the 850mb warm front lifts north.

Sunday...
Appears that the first round of precipitation should pull northeast
of central and northeast MO during the morning hours with a threat
of renewed thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening
areawide. Have maintained general trend of chance/sct PoP increasing
to likely during the afternoon, especially west of I-55. Believe
there will be enough dry time for temperatures to warm into the
upper 70s/lower 80s.

Sunday Night...
Not sure exactly how Sunday night will play out, as it will depend
on convective trends during the afternoon and evening. Model
guidance depicts a decent shortwave moving northeast across the area
which would make one think there should be some pretty good coverage
of precipitation. I have kept a blanket of categorical PoPs based on
pattern recognition more than anything.

Memorial Day...
At this point it looks like the vast majority of the area will be
dry on Memorial Day as the shortwave lifts northeast of the area and
we are located in area of subsidence for the daylight hours. I
suppose I can`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm developing since
we are still in southwest flow aloft and will be quite unstable, but
chances are pretty low since there is no obvious trigger.
Temperatures should be quite warm for the unofficial start of summer
with highs in the lower to middle 80s.

Monday night and Tuesday...
Next shortwave in the southwest flow parade will bring a renewed
threat of showers and thunderstorms to the CWA Monday night into
Tuesday. Temperatures may struggle some on Tuesday with cloud cover
and expected rain coverage, so knocked anticipated highs down a few
degrees across the southeastern half of the CWA.

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday Night through Next Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

The pattern looks to remain quite active with southwest flow
expected through the period. Each shortwave will bring with it a
chance of thunderstorms and temperatures should remain warm, with
afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 533 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Mid-high level clouds will continue across the area tonight with
showers likely moving through COU late tonight and into UIN
towards morning. Could not rule out sprinkles in the St Louis
metro area tonight, but the better chance of showers/storms should
hold off until Sunday afternoon and evening as a sly low level jet
moves through the area. Prevailing cloud ceilings will also lower
on Sunday, likely into the MVFR catagory in UIN and COU and down to
MVFR or at least low end VFR in the St Louis metro area by
afternoon. Sely surface wind will continue tonight, becoming
relatively strong and gusty from a s-sely direction on Sunday.

Specifics for KSTL: Prevailing VFR mid level cloudiness tonight,
then the ceiling will lower into the MVFR or low end VFR catagory
by Sunday afternoon. May be some sprinkles tonight from mid level
clouds, but the better threat of showers/storms should occur
Sunday afternoon and evening. Sely surface wind tonight will
strengthen and become gusty by late Sunday morning or afternoon
from a s-sely direction.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 240157
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
857 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 857 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Forecast for the most part on track and have only made small
adjustments based on latest radar trends and incorporating high
temporal res model output. Small notch of rain is expected to edge
the western edge of the CWA thru midnight with pcpn in its wake to
the S-SW expected to fill in, especially as line of storms pushes
east thru OK and contributes to an expansion of the area of
enhanced stratiform rain to the north. This should result in high
PoPs for an area roughly west of a line from UIN-COU for late
evening and overnight with minimal PoPs or dry elsewhere.

One exception which has some support amongst many of the short-
term models is the idea of isolated-scattered SHRA developing over
far SE MO around daybreak and moving north towards STL metro
Sunday morning. At this point, the models still agree on a general
expansion of SHRA/TSRA coverage as we head into the afternoon
hours.

TES

&&

.SYNOPSIS:
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

The middle to upper levels of the atmosphere feature a deep trof
of low pressure centered over the Four-Corners Region with
resulting southwest flow downstream across the southern Plains.
Embedded shortwave in this flow continues to produce heavy showers
and thunderstorms across KS and OK. Further east, weak warm
advection and moisture convergence along and north of the 850mb
warm front was responsible for isolated to widely scattered
showers across mainly southwest Missouri.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tuesday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Tonight...
Main thrust of precipitation should remain just to the west of the
CWA through tomorrow morning with the highest PoPs and QPF
concentrated across our central and northeast MO counties. That
doesn`t mean it will be completlely dry though, as isolated to
scattered showers cannot be ruled out as far east as the Mississippi
River as the 850mb warm front lifts north.

Sunday...
Appears that the first round of precipitation should pull northeast
of central and northeast MO during the morning hours with a threat
of renewed thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening
areawide. Have maintained general trend of chance/sct PoP increasing
to likely during the afternoon, especially west of I-55. Believe
there will be enough dry time for temperatures to warm into the
upper 70s/lower 80s.

Sunday Night...
Not sure exactly how Sunday night will play out, as it will depend
on convective trends during the afternoon and evening. Model
guidance depicts a decent shortwave moving northeast across the area
which would make one think there should be some pretty good coverage
of precipitation. I have kept a blanket of categorical PoPs based on
pattern recognition more than anything.

Memorial Day...
At this point it looks like the vast majority of the area will be
dry on Memorial Day as the shortwave lifts northeast of the area and
we are located in area of subsidence for the daylight hours. I
suppose I can`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm developing since
we are still in southwest flow aloft and will be quite unstable, but
chances are pretty low since there is no obvious trigger.
Temperatures should be quite warm for the unofficial start of summer
with highs in the lower to middle 80s.

Monday night and Tuesday...
Next shortwave in the southwest flow parade will bring a renewed
threat of showers and thunderstorms to the CWA Monday night into
Tuesday. Temperatures may struggle some on Tuesday with cloud cover
and expected rain coverage, so knocked anticipated highs down a few
degrees across the southeastern half of the CWA.

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday Night through Next Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

The pattern looks to remain quite active with southwest flow
expected through the period. Each shortwave will bring with it a
chance of thunderstorms and temperatures should remain warm, with
afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 533 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Mid-high level clouds will continue across the area tonight with
showers likely moving through COU late tonight and into UIN
towards morning. Could not rule out sprinkles in the St Louis
metro area tonight, but the better chance of showers/storms should
hold off until Sunday afternoon and evening as a sly low level jet
moves through the area. Prevailing cloud ceilings will also lower
on Sunday, likely into the MVFR catagory in UIN and COU and down to
MVFR or at least low end VFR in the St Louis metro area by
afternoon. Sely surface wind will continue tonight, becoming
relatively strong and gusty from a s-sely direction on Sunday.

Specifics for KSTL: Prevailing VFR mid level cloudiness tonight,
then the ceiling will lower into the MVFR or low end VFR catagory
by Sunday afternoon. May be some sprinkles tonight from mid level
clouds, but the better threat of showers/storms should occur
Sunday afternoon and evening. Sely surface wind tonight will
strengthen and become gusty by late Sunday morning or afternoon
from a s-sely direction.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 240157
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
857 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 857 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Forecast for the most part on track and have only made small
adjustments based on latest radar trends and incorporating high
temporal res model output. Small notch of rain is expected to edge
the western edge of the CWA thru midnight with pcpn in its wake to
the S-SW expected to fill in, especially as line of storms pushes
east thru OK and contributes to an expansion of the area of
enhanced stratiform rain to the north. This should result in high
PoPs for an area roughly west of a line from UIN-COU for late
evening and overnight with minimal PoPs or dry elsewhere.

One exception which has some support amongst many of the short-
term models is the idea of isolated-scattered SHRA developing over
far SE MO around daybreak and moving north towards STL metro
Sunday morning. At this point, the models still agree on a general
expansion of SHRA/TSRA coverage as we head into the afternoon
hours.

TES

&&

.SYNOPSIS:
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

The middle to upper levels of the atmosphere feature a deep trof
of low pressure centered over the Four-Corners Region with
resulting southwest flow downstream across the southern Plains.
Embedded shortwave in this flow continues to produce heavy showers
and thunderstorms across KS and OK. Further east, weak warm
advection and moisture convergence along and north of the 850mb
warm front was responsible for isolated to widely scattered
showers across mainly southwest Missouri.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tuesday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Tonight...
Main thrust of precipitation should remain just to the west of the
CWA through tomorrow morning with the highest PoPs and QPF
concentrated across our central and northeast MO counties. That
doesn`t mean it will be completlely dry though, as isolated to
scattered showers cannot be ruled out as far east as the Mississippi
River as the 850mb warm front lifts north.

Sunday...
Appears that the first round of precipitation should pull northeast
of central and northeast MO during the morning hours with a threat
of renewed thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening
areawide. Have maintained general trend of chance/sct PoP increasing
to likely during the afternoon, especially west of I-55. Believe
there will be enough dry time for temperatures to warm into the
upper 70s/lower 80s.

Sunday Night...
Not sure exactly how Sunday night will play out, as it will depend
on convective trends during the afternoon and evening. Model
guidance depicts a decent shortwave moving northeast across the area
which would make one think there should be some pretty good coverage
of precipitation. I have kept a blanket of categorical PoPs based on
pattern recognition more than anything.

Memorial Day...
At this point it looks like the vast majority of the area will be
dry on Memorial Day as the shortwave lifts northeast of the area and
we are located in area of subsidence for the daylight hours. I
suppose I can`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm developing since
we are still in southwest flow aloft and will be quite unstable, but
chances are pretty low since there is no obvious trigger.
Temperatures should be quite warm for the unofficial start of summer
with highs in the lower to middle 80s.

Monday night and Tuesday...
Next shortwave in the southwest flow parade will bring a renewed
threat of showers and thunderstorms to the CWA Monday night into
Tuesday. Temperatures may struggle some on Tuesday with cloud cover
and expected rain coverage, so knocked anticipated highs down a few
degrees across the southeastern half of the CWA.

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday Night through Next Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

The pattern looks to remain quite active with southwest flow
expected through the period. Each shortwave will bring with it a
chance of thunderstorms and temperatures should remain warm, with
afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 533 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Mid-high level clouds will continue across the area tonight with
showers likely moving through COU late tonight and into UIN
towards morning. Could not rule out sprinkles in the St Louis
metro area tonight, but the better chance of showers/storms should
hold off until Sunday afternoon and evening as a sly low level jet
moves through the area. Prevailing cloud ceilings will also lower
on Sunday, likely into the MVFR catagory in UIN and COU and down to
MVFR or at least low end VFR in the St Louis metro area by
afternoon. Sely surface wind will continue tonight, becoming
relatively strong and gusty from a s-sely direction on Sunday.

Specifics for KSTL: Prevailing VFR mid level cloudiness tonight,
then the ceiling will lower into the MVFR or low end VFR catagory
by Sunday afternoon. May be some sprinkles tonight from mid level
clouds, but the better threat of showers/storms should occur
Sunday afternoon and evening. Sely surface wind tonight will
strengthen and become gusty by late Sunday morning or afternoon
from a s-sely direction.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 232355
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
655 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

...00z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Widespread rain and convection over the Plains will spread
eastward and impact far eastern Kansas and far western Missouri
this evening into the overnight hours. Expect activity to train
from south to north within deep moisture plume ahead of an upper
low in the Great Basin. A steady low level jet will transport a
moisture rich airmass northward and aid and low level convergence
across the eastern Plains tonight.

This deep moisture plume and low level jet will shift gradually
eastward on Sunday as the upper low out west begins to lift
northeast and an accompanying shortwave rotates northward into the
region. With precipitable water values around 1.75 and 850 MB
dew points around 12 degrees Celsius rainfall rates will be
efficient with total amounts accentuated where training persists.

The greatest potential for excessive rainfall and resultant
flooding will extend from southeastern Kansas to the I-49 corridor
of far western Missouri tonight. This potential will spread east
particularly by Sunday night. The Flash Flood Watch may need to be
expanded farther east with later forecast.

Total rainfall amounts through Sunday night are expected to range
from 1.5 to 2.5 inches at most locations with some areas
particularly across southeastern Kansas into southwestern Missouri
approaching or exceeding 3 inches.

The potential for severe weather on Sunday remains conditional and
marginal at best with the extent of cloud cover and precipitation
inhibiting destabilization of the lower atmosphere.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Expect rain to taper off during the day Monday as the shortwave
lifts to the northeast. However rainfall will increase again
Monday night as yet another shortwave trough tracks northeast into
the region. Will again have to monitor for the potential of heavy
rainfall.

Otherwise the unsettled weather will persist next week with
intermittent chances of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Showers and thunderstorms will affect the taf sites this evening
into overnight however confidence is low in timing with multiple
rounds of convection. Expect a gradual drop to MVFR ceilings overnight. Low
level windshear is likely at SGF and BBG overnight due to a
strengthening low level jet. IFR ceilings are possible at BBG by
early morning tomorrow but confidence is low. Additional showers
and thunderstorms are possible throughout the day tomorrow. Winds
will be elevated with gusts out of the SE around 10-15kts.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-
     077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-
     101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Burchfield






000
FXUS63 KSGF 232355
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
655 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

...00z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Widespread rain and convection over the Plains will spread
eastward and impact far eastern Kansas and far western Missouri
this evening into the overnight hours. Expect activity to train
from south to north within deep moisture plume ahead of an upper
low in the Great Basin. A steady low level jet will transport a
moisture rich airmass northward and aid and low level convergence
across the eastern Plains tonight.

This deep moisture plume and low level jet will shift gradually
eastward on Sunday as the upper low out west begins to lift
northeast and an accompanying shortwave rotates northward into the
region. With precipitable water values around 1.75 and 850 MB
dew points around 12 degrees Celsius rainfall rates will be
efficient with total amounts accentuated where training persists.

The greatest potential for excessive rainfall and resultant
flooding will extend from southeastern Kansas to the I-49 corridor
of far western Missouri tonight. This potential will spread east
particularly by Sunday night. The Flash Flood Watch may need to be
expanded farther east with later forecast.

Total rainfall amounts through Sunday night are expected to range
from 1.5 to 2.5 inches at most locations with some areas
particularly across southeastern Kansas into southwestern Missouri
approaching or exceeding 3 inches.

The potential for severe weather on Sunday remains conditional and
marginal at best with the extent of cloud cover and precipitation
inhibiting destabilization of the lower atmosphere.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Expect rain to taper off during the day Monday as the shortwave
lifts to the northeast. However rainfall will increase again
Monday night as yet another shortwave trough tracks northeast into
the region. Will again have to monitor for the potential of heavy
rainfall.

Otherwise the unsettled weather will persist next week with
intermittent chances of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Showers and thunderstorms will affect the taf sites this evening
into overnight however confidence is low in timing with multiple
rounds of convection. Expect a gradual drop to MVFR ceilings overnight. Low
level windshear is likely at SGF and BBG overnight due to a
strengthening low level jet. IFR ceilings are possible at BBG by
early morning tomorrow but confidence is low. Additional showers
and thunderstorms are possible throughout the day tomorrow. Winds
will be elevated with gusts out of the SE around 10-15kts.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-
     077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-
     101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Burchfield







000
FXUS63 KEAX 232335
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
635 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Initial warm air advection shwrs/iso storms now developing across far
southwestern portions of our CWA this afternoon...all in advance of
main warn front which still resides down across the Southern Plains.
To our west...all eyes on a line of convection which has been in
place much of the morning and now extends from near Topeka south
into central Oklahoma and the Panhandle of Texas. Speed/distance tool
would suggest this activity to work into the greater KC area shortly
after 7 PM if initial movement and speed are maintained. Once it does
move in...a prolonged period of light to moderate rainfall is
expected...with additional energy expected to arrive overnight as
an MCV from the west Texas/southwest Oklahoma activity tracks north
with time. As has been highlighted in recent days...atmospheric
moisture content remains very high (PWATs 2-3 standard deviations
above normal) and a strengthening low-level jet overnight will lead
to increased moisture convergence across the lower Missouri
Vly...especially from 6z onwards. The end result will likely be
rainfall totals in the 1-2" range across portions of the area by 12z
Sunday (especially west of Route 65). Latest forecast soundings for
the area show a few hundred joules of elevated CAPE overnight which
should support weak convection as activity intensifies. Convective
rainfall rates combined with anomalously high atmospheric moisture
should lead to efficient rainfall production as warm cloud layer
depths remain in excess of 10kft. See absolutely no reason to change
the flash flood watch at this point...and later shifts may need to
consider expanding once trends become better established with
current/future convection.

No real change to the line of thinking for Sunday as the day looks
very wet and unsettled. Initial round of moderate to locally heavy
rains should be pulling off to our north Sunday morning...however
latest NAM and GFS models continue to show redeveloping shwrs/storms
by early afternoon across the western CWA as a weak sfc and 850-hPa
low center track north along a density discontinuity in place along
the Missouri/Kansas border. Additionally...next upstream shortwave
expected to approach the area during the afternoon hrs as main
western U.S. trough ejects into the central High Plains. With no
change in airmass expected...rainfall tomorrow should remain highly
efficient which combined with slightly better instability...will
support a continued flood threat through the day and evening hours.
If this develops as advertised...its conceivable to see another inch
along and west of Route 65...with lower amounts further east. Based
on everything listed above...main concerns remain focused on area
rivers and streams as many still remain high due to heavy rains last
week.

Light at the end of the tunnel finally begins to show itself late
Sunday night/early Monday as previously mentioned sfc low and
shortwave track north into the upper Mississippi Vly. While region
will reside solidly in the warm sector with no cold frontal
passage...latest model trends would suggest high atmospheric moisture
content will be scoured out to some degree following the passage of
said features Sunday night. Despite this...shwrs/storms look
possible by Monday afternoon especially across northwest
Missouri/northeast Kansas as next upstream upper wave approaches.
With a fair amount of instability in place...cannot rule out a few
strong/severe storms as better wind fields move in aloft.

Beyond this...much of next week continues to look unsettled with
repeated rounds for shwrs/storms just about each day. Main cold front
associated with western U.S. trough expected to approach the area
Tuesday night...and stall across the northern CWA by early Wednesday.
This feature will act as a focusing mechanism for renewed convection
before main feature passes later the week/early next weekend. If
there/s any silver lining to be had from what appears to be non-
stopped rain chances through next week...at least the grass will
stay green...

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Showers and embedded thunderstorms will spread north northeast
through the evening and overnight hours, impacting all TAF sites
between 00z and at least 12z Sunday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities
are expected to prevail, although brief periods of IFR are possible
in heavier showers. Ceilings will progressively lower overnight,
becoming IFR after 06z. Rain should exit the area by mid-morning, but
a few stray, isolated showers may linger into the early afternoon.
Winds will veer slightly to the south southeast by Sunday morning,
remaining sustained at speeds between 10-12 kts and occasionally
gusting up to 20 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KEAX 232335
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
635 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Initial warm air advection shwrs/iso storms now developing across far
southwestern portions of our CWA this afternoon...all in advance of
main warn front which still resides down across the Southern Plains.
To our west...all eyes on a line of convection which has been in
place much of the morning and now extends from near Topeka south
into central Oklahoma and the Panhandle of Texas. Speed/distance tool
would suggest this activity to work into the greater KC area shortly
after 7 PM if initial movement and speed are maintained. Once it does
move in...a prolonged period of light to moderate rainfall is
expected...with additional energy expected to arrive overnight as
an MCV from the west Texas/southwest Oklahoma activity tracks north
with time. As has been highlighted in recent days...atmospheric
moisture content remains very high (PWATs 2-3 standard deviations
above normal) and a strengthening low-level jet overnight will lead
to increased moisture convergence across the lower Missouri
Vly...especially from 6z onwards. The end result will likely be
rainfall totals in the 1-2" range across portions of the area by 12z
Sunday (especially west of Route 65). Latest forecast soundings for
the area show a few hundred joules of elevated CAPE overnight which
should support weak convection as activity intensifies. Convective
rainfall rates combined with anomalously high atmospheric moisture
should lead to efficient rainfall production as warm cloud layer
depths remain in excess of 10kft. See absolutely no reason to change
the flash flood watch at this point...and later shifts may need to
consider expanding once trends become better established with
current/future convection.

No real change to the line of thinking for Sunday as the day looks
very wet and unsettled. Initial round of moderate to locally heavy
rains should be pulling off to our north Sunday morning...however
latest NAM and GFS models continue to show redeveloping shwrs/storms
by early afternoon across the western CWA as a weak sfc and 850-hPa
low center track north along a density discontinuity in place along
the Missouri/Kansas border. Additionally...next upstream shortwave
expected to approach the area during the afternoon hrs as main
western U.S. trough ejects into the central High Plains. With no
change in airmass expected...rainfall tomorrow should remain highly
efficient which combined with slightly better instability...will
support a continued flood threat through the day and evening hours.
If this develops as advertised...its conceivable to see another inch
along and west of Route 65...with lower amounts further east. Based
on everything listed above...main concerns remain focused on area
rivers and streams as many still remain high due to heavy rains last
week.

Light at the end of the tunnel finally begins to show itself late
Sunday night/early Monday as previously mentioned sfc low and
shortwave track north into the upper Mississippi Vly. While region
will reside solidly in the warm sector with no cold frontal
passage...latest model trends would suggest high atmospheric moisture
content will be scoured out to some degree following the passage of
said features Sunday night. Despite this...shwrs/storms look
possible by Monday afternoon especially across northwest
Missouri/northeast Kansas as next upstream upper wave approaches.
With a fair amount of instability in place...cannot rule out a few
strong/severe storms as better wind fields move in aloft.

Beyond this...much of next week continues to look unsettled with
repeated rounds for shwrs/storms just about each day. Main cold front
associated with western U.S. trough expected to approach the area
Tuesday night...and stall across the northern CWA by early Wednesday.
This feature will act as a focusing mechanism for renewed convection
before main feature passes later the week/early next weekend. If
there/s any silver lining to be had from what appears to be non-
stopped rain chances through next week...at least the grass will
stay green...

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Showers and embedded thunderstorms will spread north northeast
through the evening and overnight hours, impacting all TAF sites
between 00z and at least 12z Sunday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities
are expected to prevail, although brief periods of IFR are possible
in heavier showers. Ceilings will progressively lower overnight,
becoming IFR after 06z. Rain should exit the area by mid-morning, but
a few stray, isolated showers may linger into the early afternoon.
Winds will veer slightly to the south southeast by Sunday morning,
remaining sustained at speeds between 10-12 kts and occasionally
gusting up to 20 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 232335
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
635 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Initial warm air advection shwrs/iso storms now developing across far
southwestern portions of our CWA this afternoon...all in advance of
main warn front which still resides down across the Southern Plains.
To our west...all eyes on a line of convection which has been in
place much of the morning and now extends from near Topeka south
into central Oklahoma and the Panhandle of Texas. Speed/distance tool
would suggest this activity to work into the greater KC area shortly
after 7 PM if initial movement and speed are maintained. Once it does
move in...a prolonged period of light to moderate rainfall is
expected...with additional energy expected to arrive overnight as
an MCV from the west Texas/southwest Oklahoma activity tracks north
with time. As has been highlighted in recent days...atmospheric
moisture content remains very high (PWATs 2-3 standard deviations
above normal) and a strengthening low-level jet overnight will lead
to increased moisture convergence across the lower Missouri
Vly...especially from 6z onwards. The end result will likely be
rainfall totals in the 1-2" range across portions of the area by 12z
Sunday (especially west of Route 65). Latest forecast soundings for
the area show a few hundred joules of elevated CAPE overnight which
should support weak convection as activity intensifies. Convective
rainfall rates combined with anomalously high atmospheric moisture
should lead to efficient rainfall production as warm cloud layer
depths remain in excess of 10kft. See absolutely no reason to change
the flash flood watch at this point...and later shifts may need to
consider expanding once trends become better established with
current/future convection.

No real change to the line of thinking for Sunday as the day looks
very wet and unsettled. Initial round of moderate to locally heavy
rains should be pulling off to our north Sunday morning...however
latest NAM and GFS models continue to show redeveloping shwrs/storms
by early afternoon across the western CWA as a weak sfc and 850-hPa
low center track north along a density discontinuity in place along
the Missouri/Kansas border. Additionally...next upstream shortwave
expected to approach the area during the afternoon hrs as main
western U.S. trough ejects into the central High Plains. With no
change in airmass expected...rainfall tomorrow should remain highly
efficient which combined with slightly better instability...will
support a continued flood threat through the day and evening hours.
If this develops as advertised...its conceivable to see another inch
along and west of Route 65...with lower amounts further east. Based
on everything listed above...main concerns remain focused on area
rivers and streams as many still remain high due to heavy rains last
week.

Light at the end of the tunnel finally begins to show itself late
Sunday night/early Monday as previously mentioned sfc low and
shortwave track north into the upper Mississippi Vly. While region
will reside solidly in the warm sector with no cold frontal
passage...latest model trends would suggest high atmospheric moisture
content will be scoured out to some degree following the passage of
said features Sunday night. Despite this...shwrs/storms look
possible by Monday afternoon especially across northwest
Missouri/northeast Kansas as next upstream upper wave approaches.
With a fair amount of instability in place...cannot rule out a few
strong/severe storms as better wind fields move in aloft.

Beyond this...much of next week continues to look unsettled with
repeated rounds for shwrs/storms just about each day. Main cold front
associated with western U.S. trough expected to approach the area
Tuesday night...and stall across the northern CWA by early Wednesday.
This feature will act as a focusing mechanism for renewed convection
before main feature passes later the week/early next weekend. If
there/s any silver lining to be had from what appears to be non-
stopped rain chances through next week...at least the grass will
stay green...

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Showers and embedded thunderstorms will spread north northeast
through the evening and overnight hours, impacting all TAF sites
between 00z and at least 12z Sunday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities
are expected to prevail, although brief periods of IFR are possible
in heavier showers. Ceilings will progressively lower overnight,
becoming IFR after 06z. Rain should exit the area by mid-morning, but
a few stray, isolated showers may linger into the early afternoon.
Winds will veer slightly to the south southeast by Sunday morning,
remaining sustained at speeds between 10-12 kts and occasionally
gusting up to 20 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 232335
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
635 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Initial warm air advection shwrs/iso storms now developing across far
southwestern portions of our CWA this afternoon...all in advance of
main warn front which still resides down across the Southern Plains.
To our west...all eyes on a line of convection which has been in
place much of the morning and now extends from near Topeka south
into central Oklahoma and the Panhandle of Texas. Speed/distance tool
would suggest this activity to work into the greater KC area shortly
after 7 PM if initial movement and speed are maintained. Once it does
move in...a prolonged period of light to moderate rainfall is
expected...with additional energy expected to arrive overnight as
an MCV from the west Texas/southwest Oklahoma activity tracks north
with time. As has been highlighted in recent days...atmospheric
moisture content remains very high (PWATs 2-3 standard deviations
above normal) and a strengthening low-level jet overnight will lead
to increased moisture convergence across the lower Missouri
Vly...especially from 6z onwards. The end result will likely be
rainfall totals in the 1-2" range across portions of the area by 12z
Sunday (especially west of Route 65). Latest forecast soundings for
the area show a few hundred joules of elevated CAPE overnight which
should support weak convection as activity intensifies. Convective
rainfall rates combined with anomalously high atmospheric moisture
should lead to efficient rainfall production as warm cloud layer
depths remain in excess of 10kft. See absolutely no reason to change
the flash flood watch at this point...and later shifts may need to
consider expanding once trends become better established with
current/future convection.

No real change to the line of thinking for Sunday as the day looks
very wet and unsettled. Initial round of moderate to locally heavy
rains should be pulling off to our north Sunday morning...however
latest NAM and GFS models continue to show redeveloping shwrs/storms
by early afternoon across the western CWA as a weak sfc and 850-hPa
low center track north along a density discontinuity in place along
the Missouri/Kansas border. Additionally...next upstream shortwave
expected to approach the area during the afternoon hrs as main
western U.S. trough ejects into the central High Plains. With no
change in airmass expected...rainfall tomorrow should remain highly
efficient which combined with slightly better instability...will
support a continued flood threat through the day and evening hours.
If this develops as advertised...its conceivable to see another inch
along and west of Route 65...with lower amounts further east. Based
on everything listed above...main concerns remain focused on area
rivers and streams as many still remain high due to heavy rains last
week.

Light at the end of the tunnel finally begins to show itself late
Sunday night/early Monday as previously mentioned sfc low and
shortwave track north into the upper Mississippi Vly. While region
will reside solidly in the warm sector with no cold frontal
passage...latest model trends would suggest high atmospheric moisture
content will be scoured out to some degree following the passage of
said features Sunday night. Despite this...shwrs/storms look
possible by Monday afternoon especially across northwest
Missouri/northeast Kansas as next upstream upper wave approaches.
With a fair amount of instability in place...cannot rule out a few
strong/severe storms as better wind fields move in aloft.

Beyond this...much of next week continues to look unsettled with
repeated rounds for shwrs/storms just about each day. Main cold front
associated with western U.S. trough expected to approach the area
Tuesday night...and stall across the northern CWA by early Wednesday.
This feature will act as a focusing mechanism for renewed convection
before main feature passes later the week/early next weekend. If
there/s any silver lining to be had from what appears to be non-
stopped rain chances through next week...at least the grass will
stay green...

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Showers and embedded thunderstorms will spread north northeast
through the evening and overnight hours, impacting all TAF sites
between 00z and at least 12z Sunday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities
are expected to prevail, although brief periods of IFR are possible
in heavier showers. Ceilings will progressively lower overnight,
becoming IFR after 06z. Rain should exit the area by mid-morning, but
a few stray, isolated showers may linger into the early afternoon.
Winds will veer slightly to the south southeast by Sunday morning,
remaining sustained at speeds between 10-12 kts and occasionally
gusting up to 20 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KLSX 232304
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
604 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS:
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

The middle to upper levels of the atmosphere feature a deep trof
of low pressure centered over the Four-Corners Region with
resulting southwest flow downstream across the southern Plains.
Embedded shortwave in this flow continues to produce heavy showers
and thunderstorms across KS and OK. Further east, weak warm
advection and moisture convergence along and north of the 850mb
warm front was responsible for isolated to widely scattered
showers across mainly southwest Missouri.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tuesday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Tonight...
Main thrust of precipitation should remain just to the west of the
CWA through tomorrow morning with the highest PoPs and QPF
concentrated across our central and northeast MO counties. That
doesn`t mean it will be completlely dry though, as isolated to
scattered showers cannot be ruled out as far east as the Mississippi
River as the 850mb warm front lifts north.

Sunday...
Appears that the first round of precipitation should pull northeast
of central and northeast MO during the morning hours with a threat
of renewed thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening
areawide. Have maintained general trend of chance/sct PoP increasing
to likely during the afternoon, especially west of I-55. Believe
there will be enough dry time for temperatures to warm into the
upper 70s/lower 80s.

Sunday Night...
Not sure exactly how Sunday night will play out, as it will depend
on convective trends during the afternoon and evening. Model
guidance depicts a decent shortwave moving northeast across the area
which would make one think there should be some pretty good coverage
of precipitation. I have kept a blanket of categorical PoPs based on
pattern recognition more than anything.

Memorial Day...
At this point it looks like the vast majority of the area will be
dry on Memorial Day as the shortwave lifts northeast of the area and
we are located in area of subsidence for the daylight hours. I
suppose I can`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm developing since
we are still in southwest flow aloft and will be quite unstable, but
chances are pretty low since there is no obvious trigger.
Temperatures should be quite warm for the unofficial start of summer
with highs in the lower to middle 80s.

Monday night and Tuesday...
Next shortwave in the southwest flow parade will bring a renewed
threat of showers and thunderstorms to the CWA Monday night into
Tuesday. Temperatures may struggle some on Tuesday with cloud cover
and expected rain coverage, so knocked anticipated highs down a few
degrees across the southeastern half of the CWA.

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday Night through Next Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

The pattern looks to remain quite active with southwest flow
expected through the period. Each shortwave will bring with it a
chance of thunderstorms and temperatures should remain warm, with
afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 533 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Mid-high level clouds will continue across the area tonight with
showers likely moving through COU late tonight and into UIN
towards morning. Could not rule out sprinkles in the St Louis
metro area tonight, but the better chance of showers/storms should
hold off until Sunday afternoon and evening as a sly low level jet
moves through the area. Prevailing cloud ceilings will also lower
on Sunday, likely into the MVFR catagory in UIN and COU and down to
MVFR or at least low end VFR in the St Louis metro area by
afternoon. Sely surface wind will continue tonight, becoming
relatively strong and gusty from a s-sely direction on Sunday.

Specifics for KSTL: Prevailing VFR mid level cloudiness tonight,
then the ceiling will lower into the MVFR or low end VFR catagory
by Sunday afternoon. May be some sprinkles tonight from mid level
clouds, but the better threat of showers/storms should occur
Sunday afternoon and evening. Sely surface wind tonight will
strengthen and become gusty by late Sunday morning or afternoon
from a s-sely direction.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 232304
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
604 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS:
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

The middle to upper levels of the atmosphere feature a deep trof
of low pressure centered over the Four-Corners Region with
resulting southwest flow downstream across the southern Plains.
Embedded shortwave in this flow continues to produce heavy showers
and thunderstorms across KS and OK. Further east, weak warm
advection and moisture convergence along and north of the 850mb
warm front was responsible for isolated to widely scattered
showers across mainly southwest Missouri.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tuesday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Tonight...
Main thrust of precipitation should remain just to the west of the
CWA through tomorrow morning with the highest PoPs and QPF
concentrated across our central and northeast MO counties. That
doesn`t mean it will be completlely dry though, as isolated to
scattered showers cannot be ruled out as far east as the Mississippi
River as the 850mb warm front lifts north.

Sunday...
Appears that the first round of precipitation should pull northeast
of central and northeast MO during the morning hours with a threat
of renewed thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening
areawide. Have maintained general trend of chance/sct PoP increasing
to likely during the afternoon, especially west of I-55. Believe
there will be enough dry time for temperatures to warm into the
upper 70s/lower 80s.

Sunday Night...
Not sure exactly how Sunday night will play out, as it will depend
on convective trends during the afternoon and evening. Model
guidance depicts a decent shortwave moving northeast across the area
which would make one think there should be some pretty good coverage
of precipitation. I have kept a blanket of categorical PoPs based on
pattern recognition more than anything.

Memorial Day...
At this point it looks like the vast majority of the area will be
dry on Memorial Day as the shortwave lifts northeast of the area and
we are located in area of subsidence for the daylight hours. I
suppose I can`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm developing since
we are still in southwest flow aloft and will be quite unstable, but
chances are pretty low since there is no obvious trigger.
Temperatures should be quite warm for the unofficial start of summer
with highs in the lower to middle 80s.

Monday night and Tuesday...
Next shortwave in the southwest flow parade will bring a renewed
threat of showers and thunderstorms to the CWA Monday night into
Tuesday. Temperatures may struggle some on Tuesday with cloud cover
and expected rain coverage, so knocked anticipated highs down a few
degrees across the southeastern half of the CWA.

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday Night through Next Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

The pattern looks to remain quite active with southwest flow
expected through the period. Each shortwave will bring with it a
chance of thunderstorms and temperatures should remain warm, with
afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 533 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Mid-high level clouds will continue across the area tonight with
showers likely moving through COU late tonight and into UIN
towards morning. Could not rule out sprinkles in the St Louis
metro area tonight, but the better chance of showers/storms should
hold off until Sunday afternoon and evening as a sly low level jet
moves through the area. Prevailing cloud ceilings will also lower
on Sunday, likely into the MVFR catagory in UIN and COU and down to
MVFR or at least low end VFR in the St Louis metro area by
afternoon. Sely surface wind will continue tonight, becoming
relatively strong and gusty from a s-sely direction on Sunday.

Specifics for KSTL: Prevailing VFR mid level cloudiness tonight,
then the ceiling will lower into the MVFR or low end VFR catagory
by Sunday afternoon. May be some sprinkles tonight from mid level
clouds, but the better threat of showers/storms should occur
Sunday afternoon and evening. Sely surface wind tonight will
strengthen and become gusty by late Sunday morning or afternoon
from a s-sely direction.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 232304
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
604 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS:
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

The middle to upper levels of the atmosphere feature a deep trof
of low pressure centered over the Four-Corners Region with
resulting southwest flow downstream across the southern Plains.
Embedded shortwave in this flow continues to produce heavy showers
and thunderstorms across KS and OK. Further east, weak warm
advection and moisture convergence along and north of the 850mb
warm front was responsible for isolated to widely scattered
showers across mainly southwest Missouri.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tuesday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Tonight...
Main thrust of precipitation should remain just to the west of the
CWA through tomorrow morning with the highest PoPs and QPF
concentrated across our central and northeast MO counties. That
doesn`t mean it will be completlely dry though, as isolated to
scattered showers cannot be ruled out as far east as the Mississippi
River as the 850mb warm front lifts north.

Sunday...
Appears that the first round of precipitation should pull northeast
of central and northeast MO during the morning hours with a threat
of renewed thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening
areawide. Have maintained general trend of chance/sct PoP increasing
to likely during the afternoon, especially west of I-55. Believe
there will be enough dry time for temperatures to warm into the
upper 70s/lower 80s.

Sunday Night...
Not sure exactly how Sunday night will play out, as it will depend
on convective trends during the afternoon and evening. Model
guidance depicts a decent shortwave moving northeast across the area
which would make one think there should be some pretty good coverage
of precipitation. I have kept a blanket of categorical PoPs based on
pattern recognition more than anything.

Memorial Day...
At this point it looks like the vast majority of the area will be
dry on Memorial Day as the shortwave lifts northeast of the area and
we are located in area of subsidence for the daylight hours. I
suppose I can`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm developing since
we are still in southwest flow aloft and will be quite unstable, but
chances are pretty low since there is no obvious trigger.
Temperatures should be quite warm for the unofficial start of summer
with highs in the lower to middle 80s.

Monday night and Tuesday...
Next shortwave in the southwest flow parade will bring a renewed
threat of showers and thunderstorms to the CWA Monday night into
Tuesday. Temperatures may struggle some on Tuesday with cloud cover
and expected rain coverage, so knocked anticipated highs down a few
degrees across the southeastern half of the CWA.

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday Night through Next Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

The pattern looks to remain quite active with southwest flow
expected through the period. Each shortwave will bring with it a
chance of thunderstorms and temperatures should remain warm, with
afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 533 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Mid-high level clouds will continue across the area tonight with
showers likely moving through COU late tonight and into UIN
towards morning. Could not rule out sprinkles in the St Louis
metro area tonight, but the better chance of showers/storms should
hold off until Sunday afternoon and evening as a sly low level jet
moves through the area. Prevailing cloud ceilings will also lower
on Sunday, likely into the MVFR catagory in UIN and COU and down to
MVFR or at least low end VFR in the St Louis metro area by
afternoon. Sely surface wind will continue tonight, becoming
relatively strong and gusty from a s-sely direction on Sunday.

Specifics for KSTL: Prevailing VFR mid level cloudiness tonight,
then the ceiling will lower into the MVFR or low end VFR catagory
by Sunday afternoon. May be some sprinkles tonight from mid level
clouds, but the better threat of showers/storms should occur
Sunday afternoon and evening. Sely surface wind tonight will
strengthen and become gusty by late Sunday morning or afternoon
from a s-sely direction.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 232304
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
604 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS:
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

The middle to upper levels of the atmosphere feature a deep trof
of low pressure centered over the Four-Corners Region with
resulting southwest flow downstream across the southern Plains.
Embedded shortwave in this flow continues to produce heavy showers
and thunderstorms across KS and OK. Further east, weak warm
advection and moisture convergence along and north of the 850mb
warm front was responsible for isolated to widely scattered
showers across mainly southwest Missouri.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tuesday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Tonight...
Main thrust of precipitation should remain just to the west of the
CWA through tomorrow morning with the highest PoPs and QPF
concentrated across our central and northeast MO counties. That
doesn`t mean it will be completlely dry though, as isolated to
scattered showers cannot be ruled out as far east as the Mississippi
River as the 850mb warm front lifts north.

Sunday...
Appears that the first round of precipitation should pull northeast
of central and northeast MO during the morning hours with a threat
of renewed thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening
areawide. Have maintained general trend of chance/sct PoP increasing
to likely during the afternoon, especially west of I-55. Believe
there will be enough dry time for temperatures to warm into the
upper 70s/lower 80s.

Sunday Night...
Not sure exactly how Sunday night will play out, as it will depend
on convective trends during the afternoon and evening. Model
guidance depicts a decent shortwave moving northeast across the area
which would make one think there should be some pretty good coverage
of precipitation. I have kept a blanket of categorical PoPs based on
pattern recognition more than anything.

Memorial Day...
At this point it looks like the vast majority of the area will be
dry on Memorial Day as the shortwave lifts northeast of the area and
we are located in area of subsidence for the daylight hours. I
suppose I can`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm developing since
we are still in southwest flow aloft and will be quite unstable, but
chances are pretty low since there is no obvious trigger.
Temperatures should be quite warm for the unofficial start of summer
with highs in the lower to middle 80s.

Monday night and Tuesday...
Next shortwave in the southwest flow parade will bring a renewed
threat of showers and thunderstorms to the CWA Monday night into
Tuesday. Temperatures may struggle some on Tuesday with cloud cover
and expected rain coverage, so knocked anticipated highs down a few
degrees across the southeastern half of the CWA.

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday Night through Next Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

The pattern looks to remain quite active with southwest flow
expected through the period. Each shortwave will bring with it a
chance of thunderstorms and temperatures should remain warm, with
afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 533 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Mid-high level clouds will continue across the area tonight with
showers likely moving through COU late tonight and into UIN
towards morning. Could not rule out sprinkles in the St Louis
metro area tonight, but the better chance of showers/storms should
hold off until Sunday afternoon and evening as a sly low level jet
moves through the area. Prevailing cloud ceilings will also lower
on Sunday, likely into the MVFR catagory in UIN and COU and down to
MVFR or at least low end VFR in the St Louis metro area by
afternoon. Sely surface wind will continue tonight, becoming
relatively strong and gusty from a s-sely direction on Sunday.

Specifics for KSTL: Prevailing VFR mid level cloudiness tonight,
then the ceiling will lower into the MVFR or low end VFR catagory
by Sunday afternoon. May be some sprinkles tonight from mid level
clouds, but the better threat of showers/storms should occur
Sunday afternoon and evening. Sely surface wind tonight will
strengthen and become gusty by late Sunday morning or afternoon
from a s-sely direction.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 232042
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
342 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

...Heavy Rain & Potential Flooding Developing Tonight through
Sunday Night...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Widespread rain and convection over the Plains will spread
eastward and impact far eastern Kansas and far western Missouri
this evening into the overnight hours. Expect activity to train
from south to north within deep moisture plume ahead of an upper
low in the Great Basin. A steady low level jet will transport a
moisture rich airmass northward and aid and low level convergence
across the eastern Plains tonight.

This deep moisture plume and low level jet will shift gradually
eastward on Sunday as the upper low out west begins to lift
northeast and an accompanying shortwave rotates northward into the
region. With precipitable water values around 1.75 and 850 MB
dew points around 12 degrees Celsius rainfall rates will be
efficient with total amounts accentuated where training persists.

The greatest potential for excessive rainfall and resultant
flooding will extend from southeastern Kansas to the I-49 corridor
of far western Missouri tonight. This potential will spread east
particularly by Sunday night. The Flash Flood Watch may need to be
expanded farther east with later forecast.

Total rainfall amounts through Sunday night are expected to range
from 1.5 to 2.5 inches at most locations with some areas
particularly across southeastern Kansas into southwestern Missouri
approaching or exceeding 3 inches.

The potential for severe weather on Sunday remains conditional and
marginal at best with the extent of cloud cover and precipitation
inhibiting destabilization of the lower atmosphere.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Expect rain to taper off during the day Monday as the shortwave
lifts to the northeast. However rainfall will increase again
Monday night as yet another shortwave trough tracks northeast into
the region. Will again have to monitor for the potential of heavy
rainfall.

Otherwise the unsettled weather will persist next week with
intermittent chances of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

At the beginning of the period, most terminals were dry with a few
scattered showers around the area. There were a few lightning
strikes over the past hour or so out across southeast Kansas with
additional development ahead of the next mid-level disturbance due
into our area tonight. More widespread showers and thunderstorms
are likely with this feature as it translates east and northeast
tonight and Sunday.

Kept MVFR cigs throughout much of the overnight and Sunday. BBG
may have a window of IFR conditions Sunday morning. There is a
signal for LLWS, however, it looks to be just below thresholds at
this time.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Frye






000
FXUS63 KSGF 232042
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
342 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

...Heavy Rain & Potential Flooding Developing Tonight through
Sunday Night...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Widespread rain and convection over the Plains will spread
eastward and impact far eastern Kansas and far western Missouri
this evening into the overnight hours. Expect activity to train
from south to north within deep moisture plume ahead of an upper
low in the Great Basin. A steady low level jet will transport a
moisture rich airmass northward and aid and low level convergence
across the eastern Plains tonight.

This deep moisture plume and low level jet will shift gradually
eastward on Sunday as the upper low out west begins to lift
northeast and an accompanying shortwave rotates northward into the
region. With precipitable water values around 1.75 and 850 MB
dew points around 12 degrees Celsius rainfall rates will be
efficient with total amounts accentuated where training persists.

The greatest potential for excessive rainfall and resultant
flooding will extend from southeastern Kansas to the I-49 corridor
of far western Missouri tonight. This potential will spread east
particularly by Sunday night. The Flash Flood Watch may need to be
expanded farther east with later forecast.

Total rainfall amounts through Sunday night are expected to range
from 1.5 to 2.5 inches at most locations with some areas
particularly across southeastern Kansas into southwestern Missouri
approaching or exceeding 3 inches.

The potential for severe weather on Sunday remains conditional and
marginal at best with the extent of cloud cover and precipitation
inhibiting destabilization of the lower atmosphere.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Expect rain to taper off during the day Monday as the shortwave
lifts to the northeast. However rainfall will increase again
Monday night as yet another shortwave trough tracks northeast into
the region. Will again have to monitor for the potential of heavy
rainfall.

Otherwise the unsettled weather will persist next week with
intermittent chances of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

At the beginning of the period, most terminals were dry with a few
scattered showers around the area. There were a few lightning
strikes over the past hour or so out across southeast Kansas with
additional development ahead of the next mid-level disturbance due
into our area tonight. More widespread showers and thunderstorms
are likely with this feature as it translates east and northeast
tonight and Sunday.

Kept MVFR cigs throughout much of the overnight and Sunday. BBG
may have a window of IFR conditions Sunday morning. There is a
signal for LLWS, however, it looks to be just below thresholds at
this time.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Frye







000
FXUS63 KEAX 232030
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
330 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Initial warm air advection shwrs/iso storms now developing across far
southwestern portions of our CWA this afternoon...all in advance of
main warn front which still resides down across the Southern Plains.
To our west...all eyes on a line of convection which has been in
place much of the morning and now extends from near Topeka south
into central Oklahoma and the Panhandle of Texas. Speed/distance tool
would suggest this activity to work into the greater KC area shortly
after 7 PM if initial movement and speed are maintained. Once it does
move in...a prolonged period of light to moderate rainfall is
expected...with additional energy expected to arrive overnight as
an MCV from the west Texas/southwest Oklahoma activity tracks north
with time. As has been highlighted in recent days...atmospheric
moisture content remains very high (PWATs 2-3 standard deviations
above normal) and a strengthening low-level jet overnight will lead
to increased moisture convergence across the lower Missouri
Vly...especially from 6z onwards. The end result will likely be
rainfall totals in the 1-2" range across portions of the area by 12z
Sunday (especially west of Route 65). Latest forecast soundings for
the area show a few hundred joules of elevated CAPE overnight which
should support weak convection as activity intensifies. Convective
rainfall rates combined with anomalously high atmospheric moisture
should lead to efficient rainfall production as warm cloud layer
depths remain in excess of 10kft. See absolutely no reason to change
the flash flood watch at this point...and later shifts may need to
consider expanding once trends become better established with
current/future convection.

No real change to the line of thinking for Sunday as the day looks
very wet and unsettled. Initial round of moderate to locally heavy
rains should be pulling off to our north Sunday morning...however
latest NAM and GFS models continue to show redeveloping shwrs/storms
by early afternoon across the western CWA as a weak sfc and 850-hPa
low center track north along a density discontinuity in place along
the Missouri/Kansas border. Additionally...next upstream shortwave
expected to approach the area during the afternoon hrs as main
western U.S. trough ejects into the central High Plains. With no
change in airmass expected...rainfall tomorrow should remain highly
efficient which combined with slightly better instability...will
support a continued flood threat through the day and evening hours.
If this develops as advertised...its conceivable to see another inch
along and west of Route 65...with lower amounts further east. Based
on everything listed above...main concerns remain focused on area
rivers and streams as many still remain high due to heavy rains last
week.

Light at the end of the tunnel finally begins to show itself late
Sunday night/early Monday as previously mentioned sfc low and
shortwave track north into the upper Mississippi Vly. While region
will reside solidly in the warm sector with no cold frontal
passage...latest model trends would suggest high atmospheric moisture
content will be scoured out to some degree following the passage of
said features Sunday night. Despite this...shwrs/storms look
possible by Monday afternoon especially across northwest
Missouri/northeast Kansas as next upstream upper wave approaches.
With a fair amount of instability in place...cannot rule out a few
strong/severe storms as better wind fields move in aloft.

Beyond this...much of next week continues to look unsettled with
repeated rounds for shwrs/storms just about each day. Main cold front
associated with western U.S. trough expected to approach the area
Tuesday night...and stall across the northern CWA by early Wednesday.
This feature will act as a focusing mechanism for renewed convection
before main feature passes later the week/early next weekend. If
there/s any silver lining to be had from what appears to be non-
stopped rain chances through next week...at least the grass will
stay green...

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Precipitation will continue to develop to the west and work its way
over the terminal sites through the late afternoon and evening hours.
Initially, could see some spotty showers as activity over
southeastern Kansas moves to the northeast. The main area of concern
is development currently over central Kansas which will affect the
local area this evening, with diminishing conditions expected after
midnight. IFR ceilings are likely during this time, with IFR
visibilities not out of question. Veering southeasterly winds could
gust to 25 kts as this activity crosses the region. Precipitation
will then continue through Sunday afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-
     054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Welsh








000
FXUS63 KEAX 232030
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
330 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Initial warm air advection shwrs/iso storms now developing across far
southwestern portions of our CWA this afternoon...all in advance of
main warn front which still resides down across the Southern Plains.
To our west...all eyes on a line of convection which has been in
place much of the morning and now extends from near Topeka south
into central Oklahoma and the Panhandle of Texas. Speed/distance tool
would suggest this activity to work into the greater KC area shortly
after 7 PM if initial movement and speed are maintained. Once it does
move in...a prolonged period of light to moderate rainfall is
expected...with additional energy expected to arrive overnight as
an MCV from the west Texas/southwest Oklahoma activity tracks north
with time. As has been highlighted in recent days...atmospheric
moisture content remains very high (PWATs 2-3 standard deviations
above normal) and a strengthening low-level jet overnight will lead
to increased moisture convergence across the lower Missouri
Vly...especially from 6z onwards. The end result will likely be
rainfall totals in the 1-2" range across portions of the area by 12z
Sunday (especially west of Route 65). Latest forecast soundings for
the area show a few hundred joules of elevated CAPE overnight which
should support weak convection as activity intensifies. Convective
rainfall rates combined with anomalously high atmospheric moisture
should lead to efficient rainfall production as warm cloud layer
depths remain in excess of 10kft. See absolutely no reason to change
the flash flood watch at this point...and later shifts may need to
consider expanding once trends become better established with
current/future convection.

No real change to the line of thinking for Sunday as the day looks
very wet and unsettled. Initial round of moderate to locally heavy
rains should be pulling off to our north Sunday morning...however
latest NAM and GFS models continue to show redeveloping shwrs/storms
by early afternoon across the western CWA as a weak sfc and 850-hPa
low center track north along a density discontinuity in place along
the Missouri/Kansas border. Additionally...next upstream shortwave
expected to approach the area during the afternoon hrs as main
western U.S. trough ejects into the central High Plains. With no
change in airmass expected...rainfall tomorrow should remain highly
efficient which combined with slightly better instability...will
support a continued flood threat through the day and evening hours.
If this develops as advertised...its conceivable to see another inch
along and west of Route 65...with lower amounts further east. Based
on everything listed above...main concerns remain focused on area
rivers and streams as many still remain high due to heavy rains last
week.

Light at the end of the tunnel finally begins to show itself late
Sunday night/early Monday as previously mentioned sfc low and
shortwave track north into the upper Mississippi Vly. While region
will reside solidly in the warm sector with no cold frontal
passage...latest model trends would suggest high atmospheric moisture
content will be scoured out to some degree following the passage of
said features Sunday night. Despite this...shwrs/storms look
possible by Monday afternoon especially across northwest
Missouri/northeast Kansas as next upstream upper wave approaches.
With a fair amount of instability in place...cannot rule out a few
strong/severe storms as better wind fields move in aloft.

Beyond this...much of next week continues to look unsettled with
repeated rounds for shwrs/storms just about each day. Main cold front
associated with western U.S. trough expected to approach the area
Tuesday night...and stall across the northern CWA by early Wednesday.
This feature will act as a focusing mechanism for renewed convection
before main feature passes later the week/early next weekend. If
there/s any silver lining to be had from what appears to be non-
stopped rain chances through next week...at least the grass will
stay green...

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Precipitation will continue to develop to the west and work its way
over the terminal sites through the late afternoon and evening hours.
Initially, could see some spotty showers as activity over
southeastern Kansas moves to the northeast. The main area of concern
is development currently over central Kansas which will affect the
local area this evening, with diminishing conditions expected after
midnight. IFR ceilings are likely during this time, with IFR
visibilities not out of question. Veering southeasterly winds could
gust to 25 kts as this activity crosses the region. Precipitation
will then continue through Sunday afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-
     054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 232030
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
330 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Initial warm air advection shwrs/iso storms now developing across far
southwestern portions of our CWA this afternoon...all in advance of
main warn front which still resides down across the Southern Plains.
To our west...all eyes on a line of convection which has been in
place much of the morning and now extends from near Topeka south
into central Oklahoma and the Panhandle of Texas. Speed/distance tool
would suggest this activity to work into the greater KC area shortly
after 7 PM if initial movement and speed are maintained. Once it does
move in...a prolonged period of light to moderate rainfall is
expected...with additional energy expected to arrive overnight as
an MCV from the west Texas/southwest Oklahoma activity tracks north
with time. As has been highlighted in recent days...atmospheric
moisture content remains very high (PWATs 2-3 standard deviations
above normal) and a strengthening low-level jet overnight will lead
to increased moisture convergence across the lower Missouri
Vly...especially from 6z onwards. The end result will likely be
rainfall totals in the 1-2" range across portions of the area by 12z
Sunday (especially west of Route 65). Latest forecast soundings for
the area show a few hundred joules of elevated CAPE overnight which
should support weak convection as activity intensifies. Convective
rainfall rates combined with anomalously high atmospheric moisture
should lead to efficient rainfall production as warm cloud layer
depths remain in excess of 10kft. See absolutely no reason to change
the flash flood watch at this point...and later shifts may need to
consider expanding once trends become better established with
current/future convection.

No real change to the line of thinking for Sunday as the day looks
very wet and unsettled. Initial round of moderate to locally heavy
rains should be pulling off to our north Sunday morning...however
latest NAM and GFS models continue to show redeveloping shwrs/storms
by early afternoon across the western CWA as a weak sfc and 850-hPa
low center track north along a density discontinuity in place along
the Missouri/Kansas border. Additionally...next upstream shortwave
expected to approach the area during the afternoon hrs as main
western U.S. trough ejects into the central High Plains. With no
change in airmass expected...rainfall tomorrow should remain highly
efficient which combined with slightly better instability...will
support a continued flood threat through the day and evening hours.
If this develops as advertised...its conceivable to see another inch
along and west of Route 65...with lower amounts further east. Based
on everything listed above...main concerns remain focused on area
rivers and streams as many still remain high due to heavy rains last
week.

Light at the end of the tunnel finally begins to show itself late
Sunday night/early Monday as previously mentioned sfc low and
shortwave track north into the upper Mississippi Vly. While region
will reside solidly in the warm sector with no cold frontal
passage...latest model trends would suggest high atmospheric moisture
content will be scoured out to some degree following the passage of
said features Sunday night. Despite this...shwrs/storms look
possible by Monday afternoon especially across northwest
Missouri/northeast Kansas as next upstream upper wave approaches.
With a fair amount of instability in place...cannot rule out a few
strong/severe storms as better wind fields move in aloft.

Beyond this...much of next week continues to look unsettled with
repeated rounds for shwrs/storms just about each day. Main cold front
associated with western U.S. trough expected to approach the area
Tuesday night...and stall across the northern CWA by early Wednesday.
This feature will act as a focusing mechanism for renewed convection
before main feature passes later the week/early next weekend. If
there/s any silver lining to be had from what appears to be non-
stopped rain chances through next week...at least the grass will
stay green...

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Precipitation will continue to develop to the west and work its way
over the terminal sites through the late afternoon and evening hours.
Initially, could see some spotty showers as activity over
southeastern Kansas moves to the northeast. The main area of concern
is development currently over central Kansas which will affect the
local area this evening, with diminishing conditions expected after
midnight. IFR ceilings are likely during this time, with IFR
visibilities not out of question. Veering southeasterly winds could
gust to 25 kts as this activity crosses the region. Precipitation
will then continue through Sunday afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-
     054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 232030
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
330 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Initial warm air advection shwrs/iso storms now developing across far
southwestern portions of our CWA this afternoon...all in advance of
main warn front which still resides down across the Southern Plains.
To our west...all eyes on a line of convection which has been in
place much of the morning and now extends from near Topeka south
into central Oklahoma and the Panhandle of Texas. Speed/distance tool
would suggest this activity to work into the greater KC area shortly
after 7 PM if initial movement and speed are maintained. Once it does
move in...a prolonged period of light to moderate rainfall is
expected...with additional energy expected to arrive overnight as
an MCV from the west Texas/southwest Oklahoma activity tracks north
with time. As has been highlighted in recent days...atmospheric
moisture content remains very high (PWATs 2-3 standard deviations
above normal) and a strengthening low-level jet overnight will lead
to increased moisture convergence across the lower Missouri
Vly...especially from 6z onwards. The end result will likely be
rainfall totals in the 1-2" range across portions of the area by 12z
Sunday (especially west of Route 65). Latest forecast soundings for
the area show a few hundred joules of elevated CAPE overnight which
should support weak convection as activity intensifies. Convective
rainfall rates combined with anomalously high atmospheric moisture
should lead to efficient rainfall production as warm cloud layer
depths remain in excess of 10kft. See absolutely no reason to change
the flash flood watch at this point...and later shifts may need to
consider expanding once trends become better established with
current/future convection.

No real change to the line of thinking for Sunday as the day looks
very wet and unsettled. Initial round of moderate to locally heavy
rains should be pulling off to our north Sunday morning...however
latest NAM and GFS models continue to show redeveloping shwrs/storms
by early afternoon across the western CWA as a weak sfc and 850-hPa
low center track north along a density discontinuity in place along
the Missouri/Kansas border. Additionally...next upstream shortwave
expected to approach the area during the afternoon hrs as main
western U.S. trough ejects into the central High Plains. With no
change in airmass expected...rainfall tomorrow should remain highly
efficient which combined with slightly better instability...will
support a continued flood threat through the day and evening hours.
If this develops as advertised...its conceivable to see another inch
along and west of Route 65...with lower amounts further east. Based
on everything listed above...main concerns remain focused on area
rivers and streams as many still remain high due to heavy rains last
week.

Light at the end of the tunnel finally begins to show itself late
Sunday night/early Monday as previously mentioned sfc low and
shortwave track north into the upper Mississippi Vly. While region
will reside solidly in the warm sector with no cold frontal
passage...latest model trends would suggest high atmospheric moisture
content will be scoured out to some degree following the passage of
said features Sunday night. Despite this...shwrs/storms look
possible by Monday afternoon especially across northwest
Missouri/northeast Kansas as next upstream upper wave approaches.
With a fair amount of instability in place...cannot rule out a few
strong/severe storms as better wind fields move in aloft.

Beyond this...much of next week continues to look unsettled with
repeated rounds for shwrs/storms just about each day. Main cold front
associated with western U.S. trough expected to approach the area
Tuesday night...and stall across the northern CWA by early Wednesday.
This feature will act as a focusing mechanism for renewed convection
before main feature passes later the week/early next weekend. If
there/s any silver lining to be had from what appears to be non-
stopped rain chances through next week...at least the grass will
stay green...

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Precipitation will continue to develop to the west and work its way
over the terminal sites through the late afternoon and evening hours.
Initially, could see some spotty showers as activity over
southeastern Kansas moves to the northeast. The main area of concern
is development currently over central Kansas which will affect the
local area this evening, with diminishing conditions expected after
midnight. IFR ceilings are likely during this time, with IFR
visibilities not out of question. Veering southeasterly winds could
gust to 25 kts as this activity crosses the region. Precipitation
will then continue through Sunday afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-
     054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 232030
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
330 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Initial warm air advection shwrs/iso storms now developing across far
southwestern portions of our CWA this afternoon...all in advance of
main warn front which still resides down across the Southern Plains.
To our west...all eyes on a line of convection which has been in
place much of the morning and now extends from near Topeka south
into central Oklahoma and the Panhandle of Texas. Speed/distance tool
would suggest this activity to work into the greater KC area shortly
after 7 PM if initial movement and speed are maintained. Once it does
move in...a prolonged period of light to moderate rainfall is
expected...with additional energy expected to arrive overnight as
an MCV from the west Texas/southwest Oklahoma activity tracks north
with time. As has been highlighted in recent days...atmospheric
moisture content remains very high (PWATs 2-3 standard deviations
above normal) and a strengthening low-level jet overnight will lead
to increased moisture convergence across the lower Missouri
Vly...especially from 6z onwards. The end result will likely be
rainfall totals in the 1-2" range across portions of the area by 12z
Sunday (especially west of Route 65). Latest forecast soundings for
the area show a few hundred joules of elevated CAPE overnight which
should support weak convection as activity intensifies. Convective
rainfall rates combined with anomalously high atmospheric moisture
should lead to efficient rainfall production as warm cloud layer
depths remain in excess of 10kft. See absolutely no reason to change
the flash flood watch at this point...and later shifts may need to
consider expanding once trends become better established with
current/future convection.

No real change to the line of thinking for Sunday as the day looks
very wet and unsettled. Initial round of moderate to locally heavy
rains should be pulling off to our north Sunday morning...however
latest NAM and GFS models continue to show redeveloping shwrs/storms
by early afternoon across the western CWA as a weak sfc and 850-hPa
low center track north along a density discontinuity in place along
the Missouri/Kansas border. Additionally...next upstream shortwave
expected to approach the area during the afternoon hrs as main
western U.S. trough ejects into the central High Plains. With no
change in airmass expected...rainfall tomorrow should remain highly
efficient which combined with slightly better instability...will
support a continued flood threat through the day and evening hours.
If this develops as advertised...its conceivable to see another inch
along and west of Route 65...with lower amounts further east. Based
on everything listed above...main concerns remain focused on area
rivers and streams as many still remain high due to heavy rains last
week.

Light at the end of the tunnel finally begins to show itself late
Sunday night/early Monday as previously mentioned sfc low and
shortwave track north into the upper Mississippi Vly. While region
will reside solidly in the warm sector with no cold frontal
passage...latest model trends would suggest high atmospheric moisture
content will be scoured out to some degree following the passage of
said features Sunday night. Despite this...shwrs/storms look
possible by Monday afternoon especially across northwest
Missouri/northeast Kansas as next upstream upper wave approaches.
With a fair amount of instability in place...cannot rule out a few
strong/severe storms as better wind fields move in aloft.

Beyond this...much of next week continues to look unsettled with
repeated rounds for shwrs/storms just about each day. Main cold front
associated with western U.S. trough expected to approach the area
Tuesday night...and stall across the northern CWA by early Wednesday.
This feature will act as a focusing mechanism for renewed convection
before main feature passes later the week/early next weekend. If
there/s any silver lining to be had from what appears to be non-
stopped rain chances through next week...at least the grass will
stay green...

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Precipitation will continue to develop to the west and work its way
over the terminal sites through the late afternoon and evening hours.
Initially, could see some spotty showers as activity over
southeastern Kansas moves to the northeast. The main area of concern
is development currently over central Kansas which will affect the
local area this evening, with diminishing conditions expected after
midnight. IFR ceilings are likely during this time, with IFR
visibilities not out of question. Veering southeasterly winds could
gust to 25 kts as this activity crosses the region. Precipitation
will then continue through Sunday afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-
     054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 232030
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
330 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Initial warm air advection shwrs/iso storms now developing across far
southwestern portions of our CWA this afternoon...all in advance of
main warn front which still resides down across the Southern Plains.
To our west...all eyes on a line of convection which has been in
place much of the morning and now extends from near Topeka south
into central Oklahoma and the Panhandle of Texas. Speed/distance tool
would suggest this activity to work into the greater KC area shortly
after 7 PM if initial movement and speed are maintained. Once it does
move in...a prolonged period of light to moderate rainfall is
expected...with additional energy expected to arrive overnight as
an MCV from the west Texas/southwest Oklahoma activity tracks north
with time. As has been highlighted in recent days...atmospheric
moisture content remains very high (PWATs 2-3 standard deviations
above normal) and a strengthening low-level jet overnight will lead
to increased moisture convergence across the lower Missouri
Vly...especially from 6z onwards. The end result will likely be
rainfall totals in the 1-2" range across portions of the area by 12z
Sunday (especially west of Route 65). Latest forecast soundings for
the area show a few hundred joules of elevated CAPE overnight which
should support weak convection as activity intensifies. Convective
rainfall rates combined with anomalously high atmospheric moisture
should lead to efficient rainfall production as warm cloud layer
depths remain in excess of 10kft. See absolutely no reason to change
the flash flood watch at this point...and later shifts may need to
consider expanding once trends become better established with
current/future convection.

No real change to the line of thinking for Sunday as the day looks
very wet and unsettled. Initial round of moderate to locally heavy
rains should be pulling off to our north Sunday morning...however
latest NAM and GFS models continue to show redeveloping shwrs/storms
by early afternoon across the western CWA as a weak sfc and 850-hPa
low center track north along a density discontinuity in place along
the Missouri/Kansas border. Additionally...next upstream shortwave
expected to approach the area during the afternoon hrs as main
western U.S. trough ejects into the central High Plains. With no
change in airmass expected...rainfall tomorrow should remain highly
efficient which combined with slightly better instability...will
support a continued flood threat through the day and evening hours.
If this develops as advertised...its conceivable to see another inch
along and west of Route 65...with lower amounts further east. Based
on everything listed above...main concerns remain focused on area
rivers and streams as many still remain high due to heavy rains last
week.

Light at the end of the tunnel finally begins to show itself late
Sunday night/early Monday as previously mentioned sfc low and
shortwave track north into the upper Mississippi Vly. While region
will reside solidly in the warm sector with no cold frontal
passage...latest model trends would suggest high atmospheric moisture
content will be scoured out to some degree following the passage of
said features Sunday night. Despite this...shwrs/storms look
possible by Monday afternoon especially across northwest
Missouri/northeast Kansas as next upstream upper wave approaches.
With a fair amount of instability in place...cannot rule out a few
strong/severe storms as better wind fields move in aloft.

Beyond this...much of next week continues to look unsettled with
repeated rounds for shwrs/storms just about each day. Main cold front
associated with western U.S. trough expected to approach the area
Tuesday night...and stall across the northern CWA by early Wednesday.
This feature will act as a focusing mechanism for renewed convection
before main feature passes later the week/early next weekend. If
there/s any silver lining to be had from what appears to be non-
stopped rain chances through next week...at least the grass will
stay green...

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Precipitation will continue to develop to the west and work its way
over the terminal sites through the late afternoon and evening hours.
Initially, could see some spotty showers as activity over
southeastern Kansas moves to the northeast. The main area of concern
is development currently over central Kansas which will affect the
local area this evening, with diminishing conditions expected after
midnight. IFR ceilings are likely during this time, with IFR
visibilities not out of question. Veering southeasterly winds could
gust to 25 kts as this activity crosses the region. Precipitation
will then continue through Sunday afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-
     054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Welsh








000
FXUS63 KLSX 231847
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
147 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS:
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

The middle to upper levels of the atmosphere feature a deep trof
of low pressure centered over the Four-Corners Region with
resulting southwest flow downstream across the southern Plains.
Embedded shortwave in this flow continues to produce heavy showers
and thunderstorms across KS and OK. Further east, weak warm
advection and moisture convergence along and north of the 850mb
warm front was responsible for isolated to widely scattered
showers across mainly southwest Missouri.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tuesday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Tonight...
Main thrust of precipitation should remain just to the west of the
CWA through tomorrow morning with the highest PoPs and QPF
concentrated across our central and northeast MO counties. That
doesn`t mean it will be completlely dry though, as isolated to
scattered showers cannot be ruled out as far east as the Mississippi
River as the 850mb warm front lifts north.

Sunday...
Appears that the first round of precipitation should pull northeast
of central and northeast MO during the morning hours with a threat
of renewed thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening
areawide. Have maintained general trend of chance/sct PoP increasing
to likely during the afternoon, especially west of I-55. Believe
there will be enough dry time for temperatures to warm into the
upper 70s/lower 80s.

Sunday Night...
Not sure exactly how Sunday night will play out, as it will depend
on convective trends during the afternoon and evening. Model
guidance depicts a decent shortwave moving northeast across the area
which would make one think there should be some pretty good coverage
of precipitation. I have kept a blanket of categorical PoPs based on
pattern recognition more than anything.

Memorial Day...
At this point it looks like the vast majority of the area will be
dry on Memorial Day as the shortwave lifts northeast of the area and
we are located in area of subsidence for the daylight hours. I
suppose I can`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm developing since
we are still in southwest flow aloft and will be quite unstable, but
chances are pretty low since there is no obvious trigger.
Temperatures should be quite warm for the unofficial start of summer
with highs in the lower to middle 80s.

Monday night and Tuesday...
Next shortwave in the southwest flow parade will bring a renewed
threat of showers and thunderstorms to the CWA Monday night into
Tuesday. Temperatures may struggle some on Tuesday with cloud cover
and expected rain coverage, so knocked anticipated highs down a few
degrees across the southeastern half of the CWA.

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday Night through Next Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

The pattern looks to remain quite active with southwest flow
expected through the period. Each shortwave will bring with it a
chance of thunderstorms and temperatures should remain warm, with
afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Specifics for KUIN: If the scattered rain showers moving out of
southwestern MO do not dissipate, then they would reach KUIN
around 21-23z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the
evening and into the overnight hours. Precipitation chances
increase after 09z, but confidence is too low to include an
overnight SH/TS mention in the TAF attm. Precipitation chances
appear to be much higher after 24/18z. Winds remain southeasterly
to southerly through the period.

Specifics for KCOU: Scattered rain showers were approaching KCOU
at TAF issuance. A brief period of light rain is possible this
afternoon if a shower happens to move directly over the airport.
Once these showers have moved to the northeast and away from KCOU,
VFR conditions are expected for most of the evening. Another round
of SH/TS should be approaching the terminal by 09z with rain then
lingering through the morning hours. Winds remain southeasterly to
southerly through the period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: If the scattered showers moving
out of southwestern MO at TAF issuance do not dissipate this
afternoon, then they would reach the St. Louis metro area around
21-23z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through at least
tomorrow morning. The chance of SH/TS increases after 24/18z when
a low pressure system will have moved just far enough east to
spread precipitation into east central MO. Winds remain
southeasterly to southerly through the period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 231753
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1253 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

...18z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 427 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Short range models continue their continuity with the evolution
of the moderate to heavy rainfall that will last through the
weekend.

Light showers and sprinkles were beginning to move into the
Ozarks and southeastern Kansas this early this morning. The
precipitation was falling out of rather high cloud bases however
and suspect that much of the lighter radar echoes is virga. Light
showers will be possible through the day though as southerly winds
will continue to bring Gulf moisture into the region.

The moisture and precipitation will continue to deal with mid level
dry air from the very slowly retreating high pressure over the
eastern CONUS. As a result of the dry layer in place, did go ahead
and shift the best rain chances for the Ozarks to west of Highway
65 this morning and shifting westward toward I-49 this afternoon.
The westward shift occurs this afternoon as heavier rains develop
across Texas and Oklahoma and our moisture is temporarily robbed
during the afternoon and heights rise.

Temperatures today will be warmer than the past few days in large
part from the southerly winds. Highs will climb into the 70s this
afternoon despite increasing cloud cover and shower activity.

Water vapor depicting a tropical connection to lead short wave
moving into the southern plains this morning. Upper heights to
fall tonight just as south to north meriodonal flow becomes
established and lead shortwave energy arrives. The low level jet
to also increase this evening to 40+ knots with axis of theta-e
pushing precipital waters to over 1.75 highlighting the potential
for heavy rain to reach southeast Kansas to along the Missouri
border after midnight. 1 to 1.5 inches of widespread rain is
expected along the Missouri/Kansas border by Sunday morning with
far lesser amounts east of Interstate 49.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 427 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

The very moist air mass will spread eastward across the remainder
of the forecast area Sunday morning. Rainfall rates though will
diminish over western Missouri as the low level jet weakens though
would expect moderate rain to continue over eastern Kansas given
favorable upper jet dynamics and parade of shortwaves. Lighter
amounts of rain will be possible east of Interstate 49 over to
Highway 65 and little rainfall is expected farther east.

Rainfall rates will once again pick up Sunday night over southeast
Kansas eastward to Highway 65 as the nocturnal jet regains
strength. Deepest moisture will begin to advect east of Highway 65
after midnight Sunday but not before another 1 to 1.5 inches of
rain falls over southeast Kansas into western Missouri. This will
be the period of greatest concern for flooding as this additional
rainfall falls on grounds saturated by equally heavy rain Saturday
night.

Have elected to end the Flash Flood Watch to the north of
Interstate 44 Sunday night...however have maintained it to the
south of the Interstate through the day Monday as most of the rain
will have ended from west to east by early Monday. ECM/GFS/NAM
similar in taking the last in the series of shortwaves through
the base of the trough over the southern plains. This will likely
keep the last round of thunderstorms to the south of the watch area
but close enough to its southern section to keep it in effect to
its scheduled conclusion for now.

The best concentration of moderate rains during this event will
then enter into south central MO late Monday into early Tuesday as
this last shortwave advects through the region.

Weak shortwaves will result in a wavy zonal flow that will keep
the potential for thunderstorms in the forecast through the rest
of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

At the beginning of the period, most terminals were dry with a few
scattered showers around the area. There were a few lightning
strikes over the past hour or so out across southeast Kansas with
additional development ahead of the next mid-level disturbance due
into our area tonight. More widespread showers and thunderstorms
are likely with this feature as it translates east and northeast
tonight and Sunday.

Kept MVFR cigs throughout much of the overnight and Sunday. BBG
may have a window of IFR conditions Sunday morning. There is a
signal for LLWS, however, it looks to be just below thresholds at
this time.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch/Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Frye







000
FXUS63 KSGF 231753
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1253 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

...18z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 427 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Short range models continue their continuity with the evolution
of the moderate to heavy rainfall that will last through the
weekend.

Light showers and sprinkles were beginning to move into the
Ozarks and southeastern Kansas this early this morning. The
precipitation was falling out of rather high cloud bases however
and suspect that much of the lighter radar echoes is virga. Light
showers will be possible through the day though as southerly winds
will continue to bring Gulf moisture into the region.

The moisture and precipitation will continue to deal with mid level
dry air from the very slowly retreating high pressure over the
eastern CONUS. As a result of the dry layer in place, did go ahead
and shift the best rain chances for the Ozarks to west of Highway
65 this morning and shifting westward toward I-49 this afternoon.
The westward shift occurs this afternoon as heavier rains develop
across Texas and Oklahoma and our moisture is temporarily robbed
during the afternoon and heights rise.

Temperatures today will be warmer than the past few days in large
part from the southerly winds. Highs will climb into the 70s this
afternoon despite increasing cloud cover and shower activity.

Water vapor depicting a tropical connection to lead short wave
moving into the southern plains this morning. Upper heights to
fall tonight just as south to north meriodonal flow becomes
established and lead shortwave energy arrives. The low level jet
to also increase this evening to 40+ knots with axis of theta-e
pushing precipital waters to over 1.75 highlighting the potential
for heavy rain to reach southeast Kansas to along the Missouri
border after midnight. 1 to 1.5 inches of widespread rain is
expected along the Missouri/Kansas border by Sunday morning with
far lesser amounts east of Interstate 49.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 427 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

The very moist air mass will spread eastward across the remainder
of the forecast area Sunday morning. Rainfall rates though will
diminish over western Missouri as the low level jet weakens though
would expect moderate rain to continue over eastern Kansas given
favorable upper jet dynamics and parade of shortwaves. Lighter
amounts of rain will be possible east of Interstate 49 over to
Highway 65 and little rainfall is expected farther east.

Rainfall rates will once again pick up Sunday night over southeast
Kansas eastward to Highway 65 as the nocturnal jet regains
strength. Deepest moisture will begin to advect east of Highway 65
after midnight Sunday but not before another 1 to 1.5 inches of
rain falls over southeast Kansas into western Missouri. This will
be the period of greatest concern for flooding as this additional
rainfall falls on grounds saturated by equally heavy rain Saturday
night.

Have elected to end the Flash Flood Watch to the north of
Interstate 44 Sunday night...however have maintained it to the
south of the Interstate through the day Monday as most of the rain
will have ended from west to east by early Monday. ECM/GFS/NAM
similar in taking the last in the series of shortwaves through
the base of the trough over the southern plains. This will likely
keep the last round of thunderstorms to the south of the watch area
but close enough to its southern section to keep it in effect to
its scheduled conclusion for now.

The best concentration of moderate rains during this event will
then enter into south central MO late Monday into early Tuesday as
this last shortwave advects through the region.

Weak shortwaves will result in a wavy zonal flow that will keep
the potential for thunderstorms in the forecast through the rest
of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

At the beginning of the period, most terminals were dry with a few
scattered showers around the area. There were a few lightning
strikes over the past hour or so out across southeast Kansas with
additional development ahead of the next mid-level disturbance due
into our area tonight. More widespread showers and thunderstorms
are likely with this feature as it translates east and northeast
tonight and Sunday.

Kept MVFR cigs throughout much of the overnight and Sunday. BBG
may have a window of IFR conditions Sunday morning. There is a
signal for LLWS, however, it looks to be just below thresholds at
this time.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch/Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Frye







000
FXUS63 KSGF 231753
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1253 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

...18z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 427 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Short range models continue their continuity with the evolution
of the moderate to heavy rainfall that will last through the
weekend.

Light showers and sprinkles were beginning to move into the
Ozarks and southeastern Kansas this early this morning. The
precipitation was falling out of rather high cloud bases however
and suspect that much of the lighter radar echoes is virga. Light
showers will be possible through the day though as southerly winds
will continue to bring Gulf moisture into the region.

The moisture and precipitation will continue to deal with mid level
dry air from the very slowly retreating high pressure over the
eastern CONUS. As a result of the dry layer in place, did go ahead
and shift the best rain chances for the Ozarks to west of Highway
65 this morning and shifting westward toward I-49 this afternoon.
The westward shift occurs this afternoon as heavier rains develop
across Texas and Oklahoma and our moisture is temporarily robbed
during the afternoon and heights rise.

Temperatures today will be warmer than the past few days in large
part from the southerly winds. Highs will climb into the 70s this
afternoon despite increasing cloud cover and shower activity.

Water vapor depicting a tropical connection to lead short wave
moving into the southern plains this morning. Upper heights to
fall tonight just as south to north meriodonal flow becomes
established and lead shortwave energy arrives. The low level jet
to also increase this evening to 40+ knots with axis of theta-e
pushing precipital waters to over 1.75 highlighting the potential
for heavy rain to reach southeast Kansas to along the Missouri
border after midnight. 1 to 1.5 inches of widespread rain is
expected along the Missouri/Kansas border by Sunday morning with
far lesser amounts east of Interstate 49.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 427 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

The very moist air mass will spread eastward across the remainder
of the forecast area Sunday morning. Rainfall rates though will
diminish over western Missouri as the low level jet weakens though
would expect moderate rain to continue over eastern Kansas given
favorable upper jet dynamics and parade of shortwaves. Lighter
amounts of rain will be possible east of Interstate 49 over to
Highway 65 and little rainfall is expected farther east.

Rainfall rates will once again pick up Sunday night over southeast
Kansas eastward to Highway 65 as the nocturnal jet regains
strength. Deepest moisture will begin to advect east of Highway 65
after midnight Sunday but not before another 1 to 1.5 inches of
rain falls over southeast Kansas into western Missouri. This will
be the period of greatest concern for flooding as this additional
rainfall falls on grounds saturated by equally heavy rain Saturday
night.

Have elected to end the Flash Flood Watch to the north of
Interstate 44 Sunday night...however have maintained it to the
south of the Interstate through the day Monday as most of the rain
will have ended from west to east by early Monday. ECM/GFS/NAM
similar in taking the last in the series of shortwaves through
the base of the trough over the southern plains. This will likely
keep the last round of thunderstorms to the south of the watch area
but close enough to its southern section to keep it in effect to
its scheduled conclusion for now.

The best concentration of moderate rains during this event will
then enter into south central MO late Monday into early Tuesday as
this last shortwave advects through the region.

Weak shortwaves will result in a wavy zonal flow that will keep
the potential for thunderstorms in the forecast through the rest
of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

At the beginning of the period, most terminals were dry with a few
scattered showers around the area. There were a few lightning
strikes over the past hour or so out across southeast Kansas with
additional development ahead of the next mid-level disturbance due
into our area tonight. More widespread showers and thunderstorms
are likely with this feature as it translates east and northeast
tonight and Sunday.

Kept MVFR cigs throughout much of the overnight and Sunday. BBG
may have a window of IFR conditions Sunday morning. There is a
signal for LLWS, however, it looks to be just below thresholds at
this time.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch/Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Frye







000
FXUS63 KSGF 231753
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1253 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

...18z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 427 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Short range models continue their continuity with the evolution
of the moderate to heavy rainfall that will last through the
weekend.

Light showers and sprinkles were beginning to move into the
Ozarks and southeastern Kansas this early this morning. The
precipitation was falling out of rather high cloud bases however
and suspect that much of the lighter radar echoes is virga. Light
showers will be possible through the day though as southerly winds
will continue to bring Gulf moisture into the region.

The moisture and precipitation will continue to deal with mid level
dry air from the very slowly retreating high pressure over the
eastern CONUS. As a result of the dry layer in place, did go ahead
and shift the best rain chances for the Ozarks to west of Highway
65 this morning and shifting westward toward I-49 this afternoon.
The westward shift occurs this afternoon as heavier rains develop
across Texas and Oklahoma and our moisture is temporarily robbed
during the afternoon and heights rise.

Temperatures today will be warmer than the past few days in large
part from the southerly winds. Highs will climb into the 70s this
afternoon despite increasing cloud cover and shower activity.

Water vapor depicting a tropical connection to lead short wave
moving into the southern plains this morning. Upper heights to
fall tonight just as south to north meriodonal flow becomes
established and lead shortwave energy arrives. The low level jet
to also increase this evening to 40+ knots with axis of theta-e
pushing precipital waters to over 1.75 highlighting the potential
for heavy rain to reach southeast Kansas to along the Missouri
border after midnight. 1 to 1.5 inches of widespread rain is
expected along the Missouri/Kansas border by Sunday morning with
far lesser amounts east of Interstate 49.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 427 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

The very moist air mass will spread eastward across the remainder
of the forecast area Sunday morning. Rainfall rates though will
diminish over western Missouri as the low level jet weakens though
would expect moderate rain to continue over eastern Kansas given
favorable upper jet dynamics and parade of shortwaves. Lighter
amounts of rain will be possible east of Interstate 49 over to
Highway 65 and little rainfall is expected farther east.

Rainfall rates will once again pick up Sunday night over southeast
Kansas eastward to Highway 65 as the nocturnal jet regains
strength. Deepest moisture will begin to advect east of Highway 65
after midnight Sunday but not before another 1 to 1.5 inches of
rain falls over southeast Kansas into western Missouri. This will
be the period of greatest concern for flooding as this additional
rainfall falls on grounds saturated by equally heavy rain Saturday
night.

Have elected to end the Flash Flood Watch to the north of
Interstate 44 Sunday night...however have maintained it to the
south of the Interstate through the day Monday as most of the rain
will have ended from west to east by early Monday. ECM/GFS/NAM
similar in taking the last in the series of shortwaves through
the base of the trough over the southern plains. This will likely
keep the last round of thunderstorms to the south of the watch area
but close enough to its southern section to keep it in effect to
its scheduled conclusion for now.

The best concentration of moderate rains during this event will
then enter into south central MO late Monday into early Tuesday as
this last shortwave advects through the region.

Weak shortwaves will result in a wavy zonal flow that will keep
the potential for thunderstorms in the forecast through the rest
of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

At the beginning of the period, most terminals were dry with a few
scattered showers around the area. There were a few lightning
strikes over the past hour or so out across southeast Kansas with
additional development ahead of the next mid-level disturbance due
into our area tonight. More widespread showers and thunderstorms
are likely with this feature as it translates east and northeast
tonight and Sunday.

Kept MVFR cigs throughout much of the overnight and Sunday. BBG
may have a window of IFR conditions Sunday morning. There is a
signal for LLWS, however, it looks to be just below thresholds at
this time.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch/Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Frye







000
FXUS63 KSGF 231753
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1253 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

...18z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 427 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Short range models continue their continuity with the evolution
of the moderate to heavy rainfall that will last through the
weekend.

Light showers and sprinkles were beginning to move into the
Ozarks and southeastern Kansas this early this morning. The
precipitation was falling out of rather high cloud bases however
and suspect that much of the lighter radar echoes is virga. Light
showers will be possible through the day though as southerly winds
will continue to bring Gulf moisture into the region.

The moisture and precipitation will continue to deal with mid level
dry air from the very slowly retreating high pressure over the
eastern CONUS. As a result of the dry layer in place, did go ahead
and shift the best rain chances for the Ozarks to west of Highway
65 this morning and shifting westward toward I-49 this afternoon.
The westward shift occurs this afternoon as heavier rains develop
across Texas and Oklahoma and our moisture is temporarily robbed
during the afternoon and heights rise.

Temperatures today will be warmer than the past few days in large
part from the southerly winds. Highs will climb into the 70s this
afternoon despite increasing cloud cover and shower activity.

Water vapor depicting a tropical connection to lead short wave
moving into the southern plains this morning. Upper heights to
fall tonight just as south to north meriodonal flow becomes
established and lead shortwave energy arrives. The low level jet
to also increase this evening to 40+ knots with axis of theta-e
pushing precipital waters to over 1.75 highlighting the potential
for heavy rain to reach southeast Kansas to along the Missouri
border after midnight. 1 to 1.5 inches of widespread rain is
expected along the Missouri/Kansas border by Sunday morning with
far lesser amounts east of Interstate 49.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 427 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

The very moist air mass will spread eastward across the remainder
of the forecast area Sunday morning. Rainfall rates though will
diminish over western Missouri as the low level jet weakens though
would expect moderate rain to continue over eastern Kansas given
favorable upper jet dynamics and parade of shortwaves. Lighter
amounts of rain will be possible east of Interstate 49 over to
Highway 65 and little rainfall is expected farther east.

Rainfall rates will once again pick up Sunday night over southeast
Kansas eastward to Highway 65 as the nocturnal jet regains
strength. Deepest moisture will begin to advect east of Highway 65
after midnight Sunday but not before another 1 to 1.5 inches of
rain falls over southeast Kansas into western Missouri. This will
be the period of greatest concern for flooding as this additional
rainfall falls on grounds saturated by equally heavy rain Saturday
night.

Have elected to end the Flash Flood Watch to the north of
Interstate 44 Sunday night...however have maintained it to the
south of the Interstate through the day Monday as most of the rain
will have ended from west to east by early Monday. ECM/GFS/NAM
similar in taking the last in the series of shortwaves through
the base of the trough over the southern plains. This will likely
keep the last round of thunderstorms to the south of the watch area
but close enough to its southern section to keep it in effect to
its scheduled conclusion for now.

The best concentration of moderate rains during this event will
then enter into south central MO late Monday into early Tuesday as
this last shortwave advects through the region.

Weak shortwaves will result in a wavy zonal flow that will keep
the potential for thunderstorms in the forecast through the rest
of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

At the beginning of the period, most terminals were dry with a few
scattered showers around the area. There were a few lightning
strikes over the past hour or so out across southeast Kansas with
additional development ahead of the next mid-level disturbance due
into our area tonight. More widespread showers and thunderstorms
are likely with this feature as it translates east and northeast
tonight and Sunday.

Kept MVFR cigs throughout much of the overnight and Sunday. BBG
may have a window of IFR conditions Sunday morning. There is a
signal for LLWS, however, it looks to be just below thresholds at
this time.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch/Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Frye






000
FXUS63 KSGF 231753
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1253 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

...18z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 427 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Short range models continue their continuity with the evolution
of the moderate to heavy rainfall that will last through the
weekend.

Light showers and sprinkles were beginning to move into the
Ozarks and southeastern Kansas this early this morning. The
precipitation was falling out of rather high cloud bases however
and suspect that much of the lighter radar echoes is virga. Light
showers will be possible through the day though as southerly winds
will continue to bring Gulf moisture into the region.

The moisture and precipitation will continue to deal with mid level
dry air from the very slowly retreating high pressure over the
eastern CONUS. As a result of the dry layer in place, did go ahead
and shift the best rain chances for the Ozarks to west of Highway
65 this morning and shifting westward toward I-49 this afternoon.
The westward shift occurs this afternoon as heavier rains develop
across Texas and Oklahoma and our moisture is temporarily robbed
during the afternoon and heights rise.

Temperatures today will be warmer than the past few days in large
part from the southerly winds. Highs will climb into the 70s this
afternoon despite increasing cloud cover and shower activity.

Water vapor depicting a tropical connection to lead short wave
moving into the southern plains this morning. Upper heights to
fall tonight just as south to north meriodonal flow becomes
established and lead shortwave energy arrives. The low level jet
to also increase this evening to 40+ knots with axis of theta-e
pushing precipital waters to over 1.75 highlighting the potential
for heavy rain to reach southeast Kansas to along the Missouri
border after midnight. 1 to 1.5 inches of widespread rain is
expected along the Missouri/Kansas border by Sunday morning with
far lesser amounts east of Interstate 49.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 427 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

The very moist air mass will spread eastward across the remainder
of the forecast area Sunday morning. Rainfall rates though will
diminish over western Missouri as the low level jet weakens though
would expect moderate rain to continue over eastern Kansas given
favorable upper jet dynamics and parade of shortwaves. Lighter
amounts of rain will be possible east of Interstate 49 over to
Highway 65 and little rainfall is expected farther east.

Rainfall rates will once again pick up Sunday night over southeast
Kansas eastward to Highway 65 as the nocturnal jet regains
strength. Deepest moisture will begin to advect east of Highway 65
after midnight Sunday but not before another 1 to 1.5 inches of
rain falls over southeast Kansas into western Missouri. This will
be the period of greatest concern for flooding as this additional
rainfall falls on grounds saturated by equally heavy rain Saturday
night.

Have elected to end the Flash Flood Watch to the north of
Interstate 44 Sunday night...however have maintained it to the
south of the Interstate through the day Monday as most of the rain
will have ended from west to east by early Monday. ECM/GFS/NAM
similar in taking the last in the series of shortwaves through
the base of the trough over the southern plains. This will likely
keep the last round of thunderstorms to the south of the watch area
but close enough to its southern section to keep it in effect to
its scheduled conclusion for now.

The best concentration of moderate rains during this event will
then enter into south central MO late Monday into early Tuesday as
this last shortwave advects through the region.

Weak shortwaves will result in a wavy zonal flow that will keep
the potential for thunderstorms in the forecast through the rest
of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

At the beginning of the period, most terminals were dry with a few
scattered showers around the area. There were a few lightning
strikes over the past hour or so out across southeast Kansas with
additional development ahead of the next mid-level disturbance due
into our area tonight. More widespread showers and thunderstorms
are likely with this feature as it translates east and northeast
tonight and Sunday.

Kept MVFR cigs throughout much of the overnight and Sunday. BBG
may have a window of IFR conditions Sunday morning. There is a
signal for LLWS, however, it looks to be just below thresholds at
this time.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch/Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Frye







000
FXUS63 KLSX 231710
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1210 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Will continue to keep today mainly dry for parts of central and
southeast Missouri where the NAM shows some low level moisture
convergence developing in theses areas, especially later this
morning and this afternoon. The NCEP NMM WRF shows a few showers
developing over the area this afternoon. However, do not expect
widespread showers and thunderstorm development as the NAM also
shows an upper level ridge will build over the Midwest with the
NAM/ECMWF showing either neutral or subsidence over the area.
Temperatures will be slightly warmer today with 850mb temperatures
around +10C.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

(Saturday Night through Monday Night)

NAM and ECMWF have shown better continuity than the GFS which also
shows gridscale feedback issues, so will use a blend of these two
models for the forecast solution.  Overall trends are pretty much
the same as going forecast. Upper ridge begins to move east tonight
which allows additional low level moisture convergence to move
into the area. Still expect a series of weak shortwave troughs to
move through the area in the southwest flow aloft with pockets of
low level moisture convergence. Will keep likely and categorical
PoPs going through this period. Will also go with a relatively small
diurnal swing given the clouds and rain. A blend of MOS guidance
looks reasonable given 850mb temperatures around +15C.

(Tuesday through Friday)

Will keep scattered thunderstorms in the forecast as upper flow
stays southwesterly with surface front staying nearby in a unstable
airmass.  ECMWF shows surface front moving just north of the area
which should allow temperatures to climb above normal by Thursday
and Friday.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Specifics for KUIN: If the scattered rain showers moving out of
southwestern MO do not dissipate, then they would reach KUIN
around 21-23z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the
evening and into the overnight hours. Precipitation chances
increase after 09z, but confidence is too low to include an
overnight SH/TS mention in the TAF attm. Precipitation chances
appear to be much higher after 24/18z. Winds remain southeasterly
to southerly through the period.

Specifics for KCOU: Scattered rain showers were approaching KCOU
at TAF issuance. A brief period of light rain is possible this
afternoon if a shower happens to move directly over the airport.
Once these showers have moved to the northeast and away from KCOU,
VFR conditions are expected for most of the evening. Another round
of SH/TS should be approaching the terminal by 09z with rain then
lingering through the morning hours. Winds remain southeasterly to
southerly through the period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: If the scattered showers moving
out of southwestern MO at TAF issuance do not dissipate this
afternoon, then they would reach the St. Louis metro area around
21-23z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through at least
tomorrow morning. The chance of SH/TS increases after 24/18z when
a low pressure system will have moved just far enough east to
spread precipitation into east central MO. Winds remain
southeasterly to southerly through the period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 231710
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1210 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Will continue to keep today mainly dry for parts of central and
southeast Missouri where the NAM shows some low level moisture
convergence developing in theses areas, especially later this
morning and this afternoon. The NCEP NMM WRF shows a few showers
developing over the area this afternoon. However, do not expect
widespread showers and thunderstorm development as the NAM also
shows an upper level ridge will build over the Midwest with the
NAM/ECMWF showing either neutral or subsidence over the area.
Temperatures will be slightly warmer today with 850mb temperatures
around +10C.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

(Saturday Night through Monday Night)

NAM and ECMWF have shown better continuity than the GFS which also
shows gridscale feedback issues, so will use a blend of these two
models for the forecast solution.  Overall trends are pretty much
the same as going forecast. Upper ridge begins to move east tonight
which allows additional low level moisture convergence to move
into the area. Still expect a series of weak shortwave troughs to
move through the area in the southwest flow aloft with pockets of
low level moisture convergence. Will keep likely and categorical
PoPs going through this period. Will also go with a relatively small
diurnal swing given the clouds and rain. A blend of MOS guidance
looks reasonable given 850mb temperatures around +15C.

(Tuesday through Friday)

Will keep scattered thunderstorms in the forecast as upper flow
stays southwesterly with surface front staying nearby in a unstable
airmass.  ECMWF shows surface front moving just north of the area
which should allow temperatures to climb above normal by Thursday
and Friday.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Specifics for KUIN: If the scattered rain showers moving out of
southwestern MO do not dissipate, then they would reach KUIN
around 21-23z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the
evening and into the overnight hours. Precipitation chances
increase after 09z, but confidence is too low to include an
overnight SH/TS mention in the TAF attm. Precipitation chances
appear to be much higher after 24/18z. Winds remain southeasterly
to southerly through the period.

Specifics for KCOU: Scattered rain showers were approaching KCOU
at TAF issuance. A brief period of light rain is possible this
afternoon if a shower happens to move directly over the airport.
Once these showers have moved to the northeast and away from KCOU,
VFR conditions are expected for most of the evening. Another round
of SH/TS should be approaching the terminal by 09z with rain then
lingering through the morning hours. Winds remain southeasterly to
southerly through the period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: If the scattered showers moving
out of southwestern MO at TAF issuance do not dissipate this
afternoon, then they would reach the St. Louis metro area around
21-23z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through at least
tomorrow morning. The chance of SH/TS increases after 24/18z when
a low pressure system will have moved just far enough east to
spread precipitation into east central MO. Winds remain
southeasterly to southerly through the period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 231710
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1210 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Will continue to keep today mainly dry for parts of central and
southeast Missouri where the NAM shows some low level moisture
convergence developing in theses areas, especially later this
morning and this afternoon. The NCEP NMM WRF shows a few showers
developing over the area this afternoon. However, do not expect
widespread showers and thunderstorm development as the NAM also
shows an upper level ridge will build over the Midwest with the
NAM/ECMWF showing either neutral or subsidence over the area.
Temperatures will be slightly warmer today with 850mb temperatures
around +10C.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

(Saturday Night through Monday Night)

NAM and ECMWF have shown better continuity than the GFS which also
shows gridscale feedback issues, so will use a blend of these two
models for the forecast solution.  Overall trends are pretty much
the same as going forecast. Upper ridge begins to move east tonight
which allows additional low level moisture convergence to move
into the area. Still expect a series of weak shortwave troughs to
move through the area in the southwest flow aloft with pockets of
low level moisture convergence. Will keep likely and categorical
PoPs going through this period. Will also go with a relatively small
diurnal swing given the clouds and rain. A blend of MOS guidance
looks reasonable given 850mb temperatures around +15C.

(Tuesday through Friday)

Will keep scattered thunderstorms in the forecast as upper flow
stays southwesterly with surface front staying nearby in a unstable
airmass.  ECMWF shows surface front moving just north of the area
which should allow temperatures to climb above normal by Thursday
and Friday.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Specifics for KUIN: If the scattered rain showers moving out of
southwestern MO do not dissipate, then they would reach KUIN
around 21-23z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the
evening and into the overnight hours. Precipitation chances
increase after 09z, but confidence is too low to include an
overnight SH/TS mention in the TAF attm. Precipitation chances
appear to be much higher after 24/18z. Winds remain southeasterly
to southerly through the period.

Specifics for KCOU: Scattered rain showers were approaching KCOU
at TAF issuance. A brief period of light rain is possible this
afternoon if a shower happens to move directly over the airport.
Once these showers have moved to the northeast and away from KCOU,
VFR conditions are expected for most of the evening. Another round
of SH/TS should be approaching the terminal by 09z with rain then
lingering through the morning hours. Winds remain southeasterly to
southerly through the period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: If the scattered showers moving
out of southwestern MO at TAF issuance do not dissipate this
afternoon, then they would reach the St. Louis metro area around
21-23z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through at least
tomorrow morning. The chance of SH/TS increases after 24/18z when
a low pressure system will have moved just far enough east to
spread precipitation into east central MO. Winds remain
southeasterly to southerly through the period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 231701
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1201 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...Moderate to heavy rainfall expected this holiday weekend...

Continued concern for the short-term portion of the forecast
period remains the moderate to heavy rainfall threat tonight
through Sunday. Copious amounts of moisture will be advecting into
the region throughout the day, thanks to southerly flow
transporting it unimpeded from the GoMex. For today, mid-level dry
air will keep precip chances in the isolated to scattered
category, slowly ramping up this evening into the overnight hours
as that dry air erodes. Model soundings tonight through tomorrow
are rather reminiscent of warm, tropicalesque processes at play,
setting the stage for efficient rain producers. PWAT values flirt
with upper-end percentiles based on climatology, as they exceed an
inch and a half through late Sunday. Current indications for rain
totals beginning tonight through Monday morning have widespread
amounts exceeding 1.25" to ~1.75", with higher amounts
particularly possible across east-central KS and west-central MO,
potentially reaching upwards of 2.5", with locally higher amounts
everywhere possible. As such, the Flash Flood Watch issued
yesterday remains valid, with just a trim temporally to the tail
end of it.

The reason for the trim is the drier air that is expected to move
in on Monday, assisting to significantly lower widespread precip
chances for the holiday. However, just as many mark this holiday
weekend as the unofficial start to summer, the meteorological models
seem to follow suit with day after day of storm chances throughout
much of the mid- to long-range forecast. Perturbation after
perturbation, ripple after ripple in the upper pattern spells a
prolonged period of unsettled weather but at this time, it`s not
the type of scenario where the entire forecast period is a
washout, but rather just renewed chances existing each day with
warm, moist air in place for these disturbances to work with.

As already alluded to, temperatures will be warmer for the entire
forecast period as compared to what the highs have been for the
last few days. While highs today will still struggle to reach out
of the 60s for many locations, particularly in the western half of
the forecast area, 70s beginning tomorrow through next week should
be easy to come by, with widespread 80s making an appearance at
the very least on Wednesday and Thursday. Sixties for low temps
will dominate throughout the entire forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Precipitation will continue to develop to the west and work its way
over the terminal sites through the late afternoon and evening hours.
Initially, could see some spotty showers as activity over
southeastern Kansas moves to the northeast. The main area of concern
is development currently over central Kansas which will affect the
local area this evening, with diminishing conditions expected after
midnight. IFR ceilings are likely during this time, with IFR
visibilities not out of question. Veering southeasterly winds could
gust to 25 kts as this activity crosses the region. Precipitation
will then continue through Sunday afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-
     054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 231701
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1201 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...Moderate to heavy rainfall expected this holiday weekend...

Continued concern for the short-term portion of the forecast
period remains the moderate to heavy rainfall threat tonight
through Sunday. Copious amounts of moisture will be advecting into
the region throughout the day, thanks to southerly flow
transporting it unimpeded from the GoMex. For today, mid-level dry
air will keep precip chances in the isolated to scattered
category, slowly ramping up this evening into the overnight hours
as that dry air erodes. Model soundings tonight through tomorrow
are rather reminiscent of warm, tropicalesque processes at play,
setting the stage for efficient rain producers. PWAT values flirt
with upper-end percentiles based on climatology, as they exceed an
inch and a half through late Sunday. Current indications for rain
totals beginning tonight through Monday morning have widespread
amounts exceeding 1.25" to ~1.75", with higher amounts
particularly possible across east-central KS and west-central MO,
potentially reaching upwards of 2.5", with locally higher amounts
everywhere possible. As such, the Flash Flood Watch issued
yesterday remains valid, with just a trim temporally to the tail
end of it.

The reason for the trim is the drier air that is expected to move
in on Monday, assisting to significantly lower widespread precip
chances for the holiday. However, just as many mark this holiday
weekend as the unofficial start to summer, the meteorological models
seem to follow suit with day after day of storm chances throughout
much of the mid- to long-range forecast. Perturbation after
perturbation, ripple after ripple in the upper pattern spells a
prolonged period of unsettled weather but at this time, it`s not
the type of scenario where the entire forecast period is a
washout, but rather just renewed chances existing each day with
warm, moist air in place for these disturbances to work with.

As already alluded to, temperatures will be warmer for the entire
forecast period as compared to what the highs have been for the
last few days. While highs today will still struggle to reach out
of the 60s for many locations, particularly in the western half of
the forecast area, 70s beginning tomorrow through next week should
be easy to come by, with widespread 80s making an appearance at
the very least on Wednesday and Thursday. Sixties for low temps
will dominate throughout the entire forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Precipitation will continue to develop to the west and work its way
over the terminal sites through the late afternoon and evening hours.
Initially, could see some spotty showers as activity over
southeastern Kansas moves to the northeast. The main area of concern
is development currently over central Kansas which will affect the
local area this evening, with diminishing conditions expected after
midnight. IFR ceilings are likely during this time, with IFR
visibilities not out of question. Veering southeasterly winds could
gust to 25 kts as this activity crosses the region. Precipitation
will then continue through Sunday afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-
     054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KSGF 231219
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
719 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 427 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Short range models continue their continuity with the evolution
of the moderate to heavy rainfall that will last through the
weekend.

Light showers and sprinkles were beginning to move into the
Ozarks and southeastern Kansas this early this morning. The
precipitation was falling out of rather high cloud bases however
and suspect that much of the lighter radar echoes is virga. Light
showers will be possible through the day though as southerly winds
will continue to bring Gulf moisture into the region.

The moisture and precipitation will continue to deal with mid level
dry air from the very slowly retreating high pressure over the
eastern CONUS. As a result of the dry layer in place, did go ahead
and shift the best rain chances for the Ozarks to west of Highway
65 this morning and shifting westward toward I-49 this afternoon.
The westward shift occurs this afternoon as heavier rains develop
across Texas and Oklahoma and our moisture is temporarily robbed
during the afternoon and heights rise.

Temperatures today will be warmer than the past few days in large
part from the southerly winds. Highs will climb into the 70s this
afternoon despite increasing cloud cover and shower activity.

Water vapor depicting a tropical connection to lead short wave
moving into the southern plains this morning. Upper heights to
fall tonight just as south to north meriodonal flow becomes
established and lead shortwave energy arrives. The low level jet
to also increase this evening to 40+ knots with axis of theta-e
pushing precipital waters to over 1.75 highlighting the potential
for heavy rain to reach southeast Kansas to along the Missouri
border after midnight. 1 to 1.5 inches of widespread rain is
expected along the Missouri/Kansas border by Sunday morning with
far lesser amounts east of Interstate 49.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 427 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

The very moist air mass will spread eastward across the remainder
of the forecast area Sunday morning. Rainfall rates though will
diminish over western Missouri as the low level jet weakens though
would expect moderate rain to continue over eastern Kansas given
favorable upper jet dynamics and parade of shortwaves. Lighter
amounts of rain will be possible east of Interstate 49 over to
Highway 65 and little rainfall is expected farther east.

Rainfall rates will once again pick up Sunday night over southeast
Kansas eastward to Highway 65 as the nocturnal jet regains
strength. Deepest moisture will begin to advect east of Highway 65
after midnight Sunday but not before another 1 to 1.5 inches of
rain falls over southeast Kansas into western Missouri. This will
be the period of greatest concern for flooding as this additional
rainfall falls on grounds saturated by equally heavy rain Saturday
night.

Have elected to end the Flash Flood Watch to the north of
Interstate 44 Sunday night...however have maintained it to the
south of the Interstate through the day Monday as most of the rain
will have ended from west to east by early Monday. ECM/GFS/NAM
similar in taking the last in the series of shortwaves through
the base of the trough over the southern plains. This will likely
keep the last round of thunderstorms to the south of the watch area
but close enough to its southern section to keep it in effect to
its scheduled conclusion for now.

The best concentration of moderate rains during this event will
then enter into south central MO late Monday into early Tuesday as
this last shortwave advects through the region.

Weak shortwaves will result in a wavy zonal flow that will keep
the potential for thunderstorms in the forecast through the rest
of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 711 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Showers associated with an approaching storm system will bring
deteriorating conditions to the region over the next 24 hours.
Conditions today will be VFR to MVFR as showers move across the
area. Ceilings and visibilities will be impacted as the air over
the Ozarks slowly increases in moisture. Surface winds will be
generally out of the south and occasionally gusty, especially for
the Springfield aerodrome. rain coverage and limitation to
visibility and ceilings will bring prevailing MVFR flight
conditions to the region after midnight and continue through
Sunday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch/Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Hatch









000
FXUS63 KSGF 231219
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
719 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 427 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Short range models continue their continuity with the evolution
of the moderate to heavy rainfall that will last through the
weekend.

Light showers and sprinkles were beginning to move into the
Ozarks and southeastern Kansas this early this morning. The
precipitation was falling out of rather high cloud bases however
and suspect that much of the lighter radar echoes is virga. Light
showers will be possible through the day though as southerly winds
will continue to bring Gulf moisture into the region.

The moisture and precipitation will continue to deal with mid level
dry air from the very slowly retreating high pressure over the
eastern CONUS. As a result of the dry layer in place, did go ahead
and shift the best rain chances for the Ozarks to west of Highway
65 this morning and shifting westward toward I-49 this afternoon.
The westward shift occurs this afternoon as heavier rains develop
across Texas and Oklahoma and our moisture is temporarily robbed
during the afternoon and heights rise.

Temperatures today will be warmer than the past few days in large
part from the southerly winds. Highs will climb into the 70s this
afternoon despite increasing cloud cover and shower activity.

Water vapor depicting a tropical connection to lead short wave
moving into the southern plains this morning. Upper heights to
fall tonight just as south to north meriodonal flow becomes
established and lead shortwave energy arrives. The low level jet
to also increase this evening to 40+ knots with axis of theta-e
pushing precipital waters to over 1.75 highlighting the potential
for heavy rain to reach southeast Kansas to along the Missouri
border after midnight. 1 to 1.5 inches of widespread rain is
expected along the Missouri/Kansas border by Sunday morning with
far lesser amounts east of Interstate 49.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 427 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

The very moist air mass will spread eastward across the remainder
of the forecast area Sunday morning. Rainfall rates though will
diminish over western Missouri as the low level jet weakens though
would expect moderate rain to continue over eastern Kansas given
favorable upper jet dynamics and parade of shortwaves. Lighter
amounts of rain will be possible east of Interstate 49 over to
Highway 65 and little rainfall is expected farther east.

Rainfall rates will once again pick up Sunday night over southeast
Kansas eastward to Highway 65 as the nocturnal jet regains
strength. Deepest moisture will begin to advect east of Highway 65
after midnight Sunday but not before another 1 to 1.5 inches of
rain falls over southeast Kansas into western Missouri. This will
be the period of greatest concern for flooding as this additional
rainfall falls on grounds saturated by equally heavy rain Saturday
night.

Have elected to end the Flash Flood Watch to the north of
Interstate 44 Sunday night...however have maintained it to the
south of the Interstate through the day Monday as most of the rain
will have ended from west to east by early Monday. ECM/GFS/NAM
similar in taking the last in the series of shortwaves through
the base of the trough over the southern plains. This will likely
keep the last round of thunderstorms to the south of the watch area
but close enough to its southern section to keep it in effect to
its scheduled conclusion for now.

The best concentration of moderate rains during this event will
then enter into south central MO late Monday into early Tuesday as
this last shortwave advects through the region.

Weak shortwaves will result in a wavy zonal flow that will keep
the potential for thunderstorms in the forecast through the rest
of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 711 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Showers associated with an approaching storm system will bring
deteriorating conditions to the region over the next 24 hours.
Conditions today will be VFR to MVFR as showers move across the
area. Ceilings and visibilities will be impacted as the air over
the Ozarks slowly increases in moisture. Surface winds will be
generally out of the south and occasionally gusty, especially for
the Springfield aerodrome. rain coverage and limitation to
visibility and ceilings will bring prevailing MVFR flight
conditions to the region after midnight and continue through
Sunday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch/Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Hatch









000
FXUS63 KSGF 231219
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
719 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 427 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Short range models continue their continuity with the evolution
of the moderate to heavy rainfall that will last through the
weekend.

Light showers and sprinkles were beginning to move into the
Ozarks and southeastern Kansas this early this morning. The
precipitation was falling out of rather high cloud bases however
and suspect that much of the lighter radar echoes is virga. Light
showers will be possible through the day though as southerly winds
will continue to bring Gulf moisture into the region.

The moisture and precipitation will continue to deal with mid level
dry air from the very slowly retreating high pressure over the
eastern CONUS. As a result of the dry layer in place, did go ahead
and shift the best rain chances for the Ozarks to west of Highway
65 this morning and shifting westward toward I-49 this afternoon.
The westward shift occurs this afternoon as heavier rains develop
across Texas and Oklahoma and our moisture is temporarily robbed
during the afternoon and heights rise.

Temperatures today will be warmer than the past few days in large
part from the southerly winds. Highs will climb into the 70s this
afternoon despite increasing cloud cover and shower activity.

Water vapor depicting a tropical connection to lead short wave
moving into the southern plains this morning. Upper heights to
fall tonight just as south to north meriodonal flow becomes
established and lead shortwave energy arrives. The low level jet
to also increase this evening to 40+ knots with axis of theta-e
pushing precipital waters to over 1.75 highlighting the potential
for heavy rain to reach southeast Kansas to along the Missouri
border after midnight. 1 to 1.5 inches of widespread rain is
expected along the Missouri/Kansas border by Sunday morning with
far lesser amounts east of Interstate 49.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 427 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

The very moist air mass will spread eastward across the remainder
of the forecast area Sunday morning. Rainfall rates though will
diminish over western Missouri as the low level jet weakens though
would expect moderate rain to continue over eastern Kansas given
favorable upper jet dynamics and parade of shortwaves. Lighter
amounts of rain will be possible east of Interstate 49 over to
Highway 65 and little rainfall is expected farther east.

Rainfall rates will once again pick up Sunday night over southeast
Kansas eastward to Highway 65 as the nocturnal jet regains
strength. Deepest moisture will begin to advect east of Highway 65
after midnight Sunday but not before another 1 to 1.5 inches of
rain falls over southeast Kansas into western Missouri. This will
be the period of greatest concern for flooding as this additional
rainfall falls on grounds saturated by equally heavy rain Saturday
night.

Have elected to end the Flash Flood Watch to the north of
Interstate 44 Sunday night...however have maintained it to the
south of the Interstate through the day Monday as most of the rain
will have ended from west to east by early Monday. ECM/GFS/NAM
similar in taking the last in the series of shortwaves through
the base of the trough over the southern plains. This will likely
keep the last round of thunderstorms to the south of the watch area
but close enough to its southern section to keep it in effect to
its scheduled conclusion for now.

The best concentration of moderate rains during this event will
then enter into south central MO late Monday into early Tuesday as
this last shortwave advects through the region.

Weak shortwaves will result in a wavy zonal flow that will keep
the potential for thunderstorms in the forecast through the rest
of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 711 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Showers associated with an approaching storm system will bring
deteriorating conditions to the region over the next 24 hours.
Conditions today will be VFR to MVFR as showers move across the
area. Ceilings and visibilities will be impacted as the air over
the Ozarks slowly increases in moisture. Surface winds will be
generally out of the south and occasionally gusty, especially for
the Springfield aerodrome. rain coverage and limitation to
visibility and ceilings will bring prevailing MVFR flight
conditions to the region after midnight and continue through
Sunday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch/Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Hatch









000
FXUS63 KSGF 231219
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
719 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 427 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Short range models continue their continuity with the evolution
of the moderate to heavy rainfall that will last through the
weekend.

Light showers and sprinkles were beginning to move into the
Ozarks and southeastern Kansas this early this morning. The
precipitation was falling out of rather high cloud bases however
and suspect that much of the lighter radar echoes is virga. Light
showers will be possible through the day though as southerly winds
will continue to bring Gulf moisture into the region.

The moisture and precipitation will continue to deal with mid level
dry air from the very slowly retreating high pressure over the
eastern CONUS. As a result of the dry layer in place, did go ahead
and shift the best rain chances for the Ozarks to west of Highway
65 this morning and shifting westward toward I-49 this afternoon.
The westward shift occurs this afternoon as heavier rains develop
across Texas and Oklahoma and our moisture is temporarily robbed
during the afternoon and heights rise.

Temperatures today will be warmer than the past few days in large
part from the southerly winds. Highs will climb into the 70s this
afternoon despite increasing cloud cover and shower activity.

Water vapor depicting a tropical connection to lead short wave
moving into the southern plains this morning. Upper heights to
fall tonight just as south to north meriodonal flow becomes
established and lead shortwave energy arrives. The low level jet
to also increase this evening to 40+ knots with axis of theta-e
pushing precipital waters to over 1.75 highlighting the potential
for heavy rain to reach southeast Kansas to along the Missouri
border after midnight. 1 to 1.5 inches of widespread rain is
expected along the Missouri/Kansas border by Sunday morning with
far lesser amounts east of Interstate 49.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 427 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

The very moist air mass will spread eastward across the remainder
of the forecast area Sunday morning. Rainfall rates though will
diminish over western Missouri as the low level jet weakens though
would expect moderate rain to continue over eastern Kansas given
favorable upper jet dynamics and parade of shortwaves. Lighter
amounts of rain will be possible east of Interstate 49 over to
Highway 65 and little rainfall is expected farther east.

Rainfall rates will once again pick up Sunday night over southeast
Kansas eastward to Highway 65 as the nocturnal jet regains
strength. Deepest moisture will begin to advect east of Highway 65
after midnight Sunday but not before another 1 to 1.5 inches of
rain falls over southeast Kansas into western Missouri. This will
be the period of greatest concern for flooding as this additional
rainfall falls on grounds saturated by equally heavy rain Saturday
night.

Have elected to end the Flash Flood Watch to the north of
Interstate 44 Sunday night...however have maintained it to the
south of the Interstate through the day Monday as most of the rain
will have ended from west to east by early Monday. ECM/GFS/NAM
similar in taking the last in the series of shortwaves through
the base of the trough over the southern plains. This will likely
keep the last round of thunderstorms to the south of the watch area
but close enough to its southern section to keep it in effect to
its scheduled conclusion for now.

The best concentration of moderate rains during this event will
then enter into south central MO late Monday into early Tuesday as
this last shortwave advects through the region.

Weak shortwaves will result in a wavy zonal flow that will keep
the potential for thunderstorms in the forecast through the rest
of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 711 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Showers associated with an approaching storm system will bring
deteriorating conditions to the region over the next 24 hours.
Conditions today will be VFR to MVFR as showers move across the
area. Ceilings and visibilities will be impacted as the air over
the Ozarks slowly increases in moisture. Surface winds will be
generally out of the south and occasionally gusty, especially for
the Springfield aerodrome. rain coverage and limitation to
visibility and ceilings will bring prevailing MVFR flight
conditions to the region after midnight and continue through
Sunday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch/Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Hatch









000
FXUS63 KSGF 231219
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
719 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 427 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Short range models continue their continuity with the evolution
of the moderate to heavy rainfall that will last through the
weekend.

Light showers and sprinkles were beginning to move into the
Ozarks and southeastern Kansas this early this morning. The
precipitation was falling out of rather high cloud bases however
and suspect that much of the lighter radar echoes is virga. Light
showers will be possible through the day though as southerly winds
will continue to bring Gulf moisture into the region.

The moisture and precipitation will continue to deal with mid level
dry air from the very slowly retreating high pressure over the
eastern CONUS. As a result of the dry layer in place, did go ahead
and shift the best rain chances for the Ozarks to west of Highway
65 this morning and shifting westward toward I-49 this afternoon.
The westward shift occurs this afternoon as heavier rains develop
across Texas and Oklahoma and our moisture is temporarily robbed
during the afternoon and heights rise.

Temperatures today will be warmer than the past few days in large
part from the southerly winds. Highs will climb into the 70s this
afternoon despite increasing cloud cover and shower activity.

Water vapor depicting a tropical connection to lead short wave
moving into the southern plains this morning. Upper heights to
fall tonight just as south to north meriodonal flow becomes
established and lead shortwave energy arrives. The low level jet
to also increase this evening to 40+ knots with axis of theta-e
pushing precipital waters to over 1.75 highlighting the potential
for heavy rain to reach southeast Kansas to along the Missouri
border after midnight. 1 to 1.5 inches of widespread rain is
expected along the Missouri/Kansas border by Sunday morning with
far lesser amounts east of Interstate 49.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 427 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

The very moist air mass will spread eastward across the remainder
of the forecast area Sunday morning. Rainfall rates though will
diminish over western Missouri as the low level jet weakens though
would expect moderate rain to continue over eastern Kansas given
favorable upper jet dynamics and parade of shortwaves. Lighter
amounts of rain will be possible east of Interstate 49 over to
Highway 65 and little rainfall is expected farther east.

Rainfall rates will once again pick up Sunday night over southeast
Kansas eastward to Highway 65 as the nocturnal jet regains
strength. Deepest moisture will begin to advect east of Highway 65
after midnight Sunday but not before another 1 to 1.5 inches of
rain falls over southeast Kansas into western Missouri. This will
be the period of greatest concern for flooding as this additional
rainfall falls on grounds saturated by equally heavy rain Saturday
night.

Have elected to end the Flash Flood Watch to the north of
Interstate 44 Sunday night...however have maintained it to the
south of the Interstate through the day Monday as most of the rain
will have ended from west to east by early Monday. ECM/GFS/NAM
similar in taking the last in the series of shortwaves through
the base of the trough over the southern plains. This will likely
keep the last round of thunderstorms to the south of the watch area
but close enough to its southern section to keep it in effect to
its scheduled conclusion for now.

The best concentration of moderate rains during this event will
then enter into south central MO late Monday into early Tuesday as
this last shortwave advects through the region.

Weak shortwaves will result in a wavy zonal flow that will keep
the potential for thunderstorms in the forecast through the rest
of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 711 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Showers associated with an approaching storm system will bring
deteriorating conditions to the region over the next 24 hours.
Conditions today will be VFR to MVFR as showers move across the
area. Ceilings and visibilities will be impacted as the air over
the Ozarks slowly increases in moisture. Surface winds will be
generally out of the south and occasionally gusty, especially for
the Springfield aerodrome. rain coverage and limitation to
visibility and ceilings will bring prevailing MVFR flight
conditions to the region after midnight and continue through
Sunday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch/Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Hatch









000
FXUS63 KSGF 231219
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
719 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 427 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Short range models continue their continuity with the evolution
of the moderate to heavy rainfall that will last through the
weekend.

Light showers and sprinkles were beginning to move into the
Ozarks and southeastern Kansas this early this morning. The
precipitation was falling out of rather high cloud bases however
and suspect that much of the lighter radar echoes is virga. Light
showers will be possible through the day though as southerly winds
will continue to bring Gulf moisture into the region.

The moisture and precipitation will continue to deal with mid level
dry air from the very slowly retreating high pressure over the
eastern CONUS. As a result of the dry layer in place, did go ahead
and shift the best rain chances for the Ozarks to west of Highway
65 this morning and shifting westward toward I-49 this afternoon.
The westward shift occurs this afternoon as heavier rains develop
across Texas and Oklahoma and our moisture is temporarily robbed
during the afternoon and heights rise.

Temperatures today will be warmer than the past few days in large
part from the southerly winds. Highs will climb into the 70s this
afternoon despite increasing cloud cover and shower activity.

Water vapor depicting a tropical connection to lead short wave
moving into the southern plains this morning. Upper heights to
fall tonight just as south to north meriodonal flow becomes
established and lead shortwave energy arrives. The low level jet
to also increase this evening to 40+ knots with axis of theta-e
pushing precipital waters to over 1.75 highlighting the potential
for heavy rain to reach southeast Kansas to along the Missouri
border after midnight. 1 to 1.5 inches of widespread rain is
expected along the Missouri/Kansas border by Sunday morning with
far lesser amounts east of Interstate 49.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 427 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

The very moist air mass will spread eastward across the remainder
of the forecast area Sunday morning. Rainfall rates though will
diminish over western Missouri as the low level jet weakens though
would expect moderate rain to continue over eastern Kansas given
favorable upper jet dynamics and parade of shortwaves. Lighter
amounts of rain will be possible east of Interstate 49 over to
Highway 65 and little rainfall is expected farther east.

Rainfall rates will once again pick up Sunday night over southeast
Kansas eastward to Highway 65 as the nocturnal jet regains
strength. Deepest moisture will begin to advect east of Highway 65
after midnight Sunday but not before another 1 to 1.5 inches of
rain falls over southeast Kansas into western Missouri. This will
be the period of greatest concern for flooding as this additional
rainfall falls on grounds saturated by equally heavy rain Saturday
night.

Have elected to end the Flash Flood Watch to the north of
Interstate 44 Sunday night...however have maintained it to the
south of the Interstate through the day Monday as most of the rain
will have ended from west to east by early Monday. ECM/GFS/NAM
similar in taking the last in the series of shortwaves through
the base of the trough over the southern plains. This will likely
keep the last round of thunderstorms to the south of the watch area
but close enough to its southern section to keep it in effect to
its scheduled conclusion for now.

The best concentration of moderate rains during this event will
then enter into south central MO late Monday into early Tuesday as
this last shortwave advects through the region.

Weak shortwaves will result in a wavy zonal flow that will keep
the potential for thunderstorms in the forecast through the rest
of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 711 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Showers associated with an approaching storm system will bring
deteriorating conditions to the region over the next 24 hours.
Conditions today will be VFR to MVFR as showers move across the
area. Ceilings and visibilities will be impacted as the air over
the Ozarks slowly increases in moisture. Surface winds will be
generally out of the south and occasionally gusty, especially for
the Springfield aerodrome. rain coverage and limitation to
visibility and ceilings will bring prevailing MVFR flight
conditions to the region after midnight and continue through
Sunday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch/Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Hatch








000
FXUS63 KLSX 231136
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
636 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Will continue to keep today mainly dry for parts of central and
southeast Missouri where the NAM shows some low level moisture
convergence developing in theses areas, especially later this
morning and this afternoon. The NCEP NMM WRF shows a few showers
developing over the area this afternoon. However, do not expect
widespread showers and thunderstorm development as the NAM also
shows an upper level ridge will build over the Midwest with the
NAM/ECMWF showing either neutral or subsidence over the area.
Temperatures will be slightly warmer today with 850mb temperatures
around +10C.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

(Saturday Night through Monday Night)

NAM and ECMWF have shown better continuity than the GFS which also
shows gridscale feedback issues, so will use a blend of these two
models for the forecast solution.  Overall trends are pretty much
the same as going forecast. Upper ridge begins to move east tonight
which allows additional low level moisture convergence to move
into the area. Still expect a series of weak shortwave troughs to
move through the area in the southwest flow aloft with pockets of
low level moisture convergence. Will keep likely and categorical
PoPs going through this period. Will also go with a relatively small
diurnal swing given the clouds and rain. A blend of MOS guidance
looks reasonable given 850mb temperatures around +15C.

(Tuesday through Friday)

Will keep scattered thunderstorms in the forecast as upper flow
stays southwesterly with surface front staying nearby in a unstable
airmass.  ECMWF shows surface front moving just north of the area
which should allow temperatures to climb above normal by Thursday
and Friday.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

VFR TAF for now with widely sct sprinkles early in the period.
Winds will be sely, become ssely this morning before backing this
eve to sely, all below 10 kts. Cigs will remain in the 7 kft to 12
kft thru the period. Have added VCTS at COU late tonight as an
area of precip is expected to approach the area.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry except for widely sct sprinkles
early in the period. Winds will remain sely to ssely thru the
period and expected to remain below 10 kts. Chance for TSRA
increases Sun near 18z. Have left out of TAF for now until
confidence in timing builds.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 231136
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
636 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Will continue to keep today mainly dry for parts of central and
southeast Missouri where the NAM shows some low level moisture
convergence developing in theses areas, especially later this
morning and this afternoon. The NCEP NMM WRF shows a few showers
developing over the area this afternoon. However, do not expect
widespread showers and thunderstorm development as the NAM also
shows an upper level ridge will build over the Midwest with the
NAM/ECMWF showing either neutral or subsidence over the area.
Temperatures will be slightly warmer today with 850mb temperatures
around +10C.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

(Saturday Night through Monday Night)

NAM and ECMWF have shown better continuity than the GFS which also
shows gridscale feedback issues, so will use a blend of these two
models for the forecast solution.  Overall trends are pretty much
the same as going forecast. Upper ridge begins to move east tonight
which allows additional low level moisture convergence to move
into the area. Still expect a series of weak shortwave troughs to
move through the area in the southwest flow aloft with pockets of
low level moisture convergence. Will keep likely and categorical
PoPs going through this period. Will also go with a relatively small
diurnal swing given the clouds and rain. A blend of MOS guidance
looks reasonable given 850mb temperatures around +15C.

(Tuesday through Friday)

Will keep scattered thunderstorms in the forecast as upper flow
stays southwesterly with surface front staying nearby in a unstable
airmass.  ECMWF shows surface front moving just north of the area
which should allow temperatures to climb above normal by Thursday
and Friday.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

VFR TAF for now with widely sct sprinkles early in the period.
Winds will be sely, become ssely this morning before backing this
eve to sely, all below 10 kts. Cigs will remain in the 7 kft to 12
kft thru the period. Have added VCTS at COU late tonight as an
area of precip is expected to approach the area.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry except for widely sct sprinkles
early in the period. Winds will remain sely to ssely thru the
period and expected to remain below 10 kts. Chance for TSRA
increases Sun near 18z. Have left out of TAF for now until
confidence in timing builds.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 231136
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
636 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Will continue to keep today mainly dry for parts of central and
southeast Missouri where the NAM shows some low level moisture
convergence developing in theses areas, especially later this
morning and this afternoon. The NCEP NMM WRF shows a few showers
developing over the area this afternoon. However, do not expect
widespread showers and thunderstorm development as the NAM also
shows an upper level ridge will build over the Midwest with the
NAM/ECMWF showing either neutral or subsidence over the area.
Temperatures will be slightly warmer today with 850mb temperatures
around +10C.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

(Saturday Night through Monday Night)

NAM and ECMWF have shown better continuity than the GFS which also
shows gridscale feedback issues, so will use a blend of these two
models for the forecast solution.  Overall trends are pretty much
the same as going forecast. Upper ridge begins to move east tonight
which allows additional low level moisture convergence to move
into the area. Still expect a series of weak shortwave troughs to
move through the area in the southwest flow aloft with pockets of
low level moisture convergence. Will keep likely and categorical
PoPs going through this period. Will also go with a relatively small
diurnal swing given the clouds and rain. A blend of MOS guidance
looks reasonable given 850mb temperatures around +15C.

(Tuesday through Friday)

Will keep scattered thunderstorms in the forecast as upper flow
stays southwesterly with surface front staying nearby in a unstable
airmass.  ECMWF shows surface front moving just north of the area
which should allow temperatures to climb above normal by Thursday
and Friday.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

VFR TAF for now with widely sct sprinkles early in the period.
Winds will be sely, become ssely this morning before backing this
eve to sely, all below 10 kts. Cigs will remain in the 7 kft to 12
kft thru the period. Have added VCTS at COU late tonight as an
area of precip is expected to approach the area.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry except for widely sct sprinkles
early in the period. Winds will remain sely to ssely thru the
period and expected to remain below 10 kts. Chance for TSRA
increases Sun near 18z. Have left out of TAF for now until
confidence in timing builds.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 231049
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
549 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...Moderate to heavy rainfall expected this holiday weekend...

Continued concern for the short-term portion of the forecast
period remains the moderate to heavy rainfall threat tonight
through Sunday. Copious amounts of moisture will be advecting into
the region throughout the day, thanks to southerly flow
transporting it unimpeded from the GoMex. For today, mid-level dry
air will keep precip chances in the isolated to scattered
category, slowly ramping up this evening into the overnight hours
as that dry air erodes. Model soundings tonight through tomorrow
are rather reminiscent of warm, tropicalesque processes at play,
setting the stage for efficient rain producers. PWAT values flirt
with upper-end percentiles based on climatology, as they exceed an
inch and a half through late Sunday. Current indications for rain
totals beginning tonight through Monday morning have widespread
amounts exceeding 1.25" to ~1.75", with higher amounts
particularly possible across east-central KS and west-central MO,
potentially reaching upwards of 2.5", with locally higher amounts
everywhere possible. As such, the Flash Flood Watch issued
yesterday remains valid, with just a trim temporally to the tail
end of it.

The reason for the trim is the drier air that is expected to move
in on Monday, assisting to significantly lower widespread precip
chances for the holiday. However, just as many mark this holiday
weekend as the unofficial start to summer, the meteorological models
seem to follow suit with day after day of storm chances throughout
much of the mid- to long-range forecast. Perturbation after
perturbation, ripple after ripple in the upper pattern spells a
prolonged period of unsettled weather but at this time, it`s not
the type of scenario where the entire forecast period is a
washout, but rather just renewed chances existing each day with
warm, moist air in place for these disturbances to work with.

As already alluded to, temperatures will be warmer for the entire
forecast period as compared to what the highs have been for the
last few days. While highs today will still struggle to reach out
of the 60s for many locations, particularly in the western half of
the forecast area, 70s beginning tomorrow through next week should
be easy to come by, with widespread 80s making an appearance at
the very least on Wednesday and Thursday. Sixties for low temps
will dominate throughout the entire forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 533 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Conditions for aviation interests today will consist of hit and
miss showers that shouldn`t impact the terminals too much unless a
healthy shower is able to develop. However, as the night
progresses tonight, widespread rain will move into the region,
negatively impacting all four terminals tonight through the rest
of the TAF period. At this point, while confidence is high in
moderate to heavy rainfall possible, lowering ceilings and visbys,
better fine tuning of these impacts will likely be best reserved
for the next TAF issuance. Winds will be out of the SW at around
10 to 15 knots or so throughout the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Monday morning FOR
     KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Monday morning FOR
     MOZ012>014-020>023-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...lg







000
FXUS63 KEAX 231049
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
549 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...Moderate to heavy rainfall expected this holiday weekend...

Continued concern for the short-term portion of the forecast
period remains the moderate to heavy rainfall threat tonight
through Sunday. Copious amounts of moisture will be advecting into
the region throughout the day, thanks to southerly flow
transporting it unimpeded from the GoMex. For today, mid-level dry
air will keep precip chances in the isolated to scattered
category, slowly ramping up this evening into the overnight hours
as that dry air erodes. Model soundings tonight through tomorrow
are rather reminiscent of warm, tropicalesque processes at play,
setting the stage for efficient rain producers. PWAT values flirt
with upper-end percentiles based on climatology, as they exceed an
inch and a half through late Sunday. Current indications for rain
totals beginning tonight through Monday morning have widespread
amounts exceeding 1.25" to ~1.75", with higher amounts
particularly possible across east-central KS and west-central MO,
potentially reaching upwards of 2.5", with locally higher amounts
everywhere possible. As such, the Flash Flood Watch issued
yesterday remains valid, with just a trim temporally to the tail
end of it.

The reason for the trim is the drier air that is expected to move
in on Monday, assisting to significantly lower widespread precip
chances for the holiday. However, just as many mark this holiday
weekend as the unofficial start to summer, the meteorological models
seem to follow suit with day after day of storm chances throughout
much of the mid- to long-range forecast. Perturbation after
perturbation, ripple after ripple in the upper pattern spells a
prolonged period of unsettled weather but at this time, it`s not
the type of scenario where the entire forecast period is a
washout, but rather just renewed chances existing each day with
warm, moist air in place for these disturbances to work with.

As already alluded to, temperatures will be warmer for the entire
forecast period as compared to what the highs have been for the
last few days. While highs today will still struggle to reach out
of the 60s for many locations, particularly in the western half of
the forecast area, 70s beginning tomorrow through next week should
be easy to come by, with widespread 80s making an appearance at
the very least on Wednesday and Thursday. Sixties for low temps
will dominate throughout the entire forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 533 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Conditions for aviation interests today will consist of hit and
miss showers that shouldn`t impact the terminals too much unless a
healthy shower is able to develop. However, as the night
progresses tonight, widespread rain will move into the region,
negatively impacting all four terminals tonight through the rest
of the TAF period. At this point, while confidence is high in
moderate to heavy rainfall possible, lowering ceilings and visbys,
better fine tuning of these impacts will likely be best reserved
for the next TAF issuance. Winds will be out of the SW at around
10 to 15 knots or so throughout the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Monday morning FOR
     KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Monday morning FOR
     MOZ012>014-020>023-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...lg






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities