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000
FXUS63 KEAX 262308
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
508 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Cold is the main concern for the next 36 hours with a deep 1042 mb
high building in from the north. Light winds and clear skies
associated this feature should allow temperatures to drop a few
degrees below zero, especially where snow is on the ground over
northern Missouri. Elsewhere temperatures will bottom out a few
degrees above zero. Wind chills across the Macon and Kirksville areas
may get near or slightly below -15 early Friday morning. While this
is typically our criteria for a wind chill advisory, these areas have
seen plenty of nights with wind chills this cold this winter, so they
were left out of any wind chill advisory to match up with offices to
the northeast where criteria is a bit lower.

Confidence continues to increase for accumulating snow Saturday and
Saturday night, as most models have come into agreement on a wide
swath of 3" to 6" across much of the forecast area. The primary
forcing mechanisms with this system, deep isentropic/synoptic-scale
ascent, are typically better resolved by models and more widespread
than some of the more smaller-scale features that have driven many
of the more recent events. This gives more wiggle room in case models
change track or intensity, so confidence is higher for Saturday`s
event than it has been with some of the other systems we`ve dealt
with lately. No watch will be issued at this time since snow amounts
should be generally under 6" through late Saturday night.

Sunday is more of a question mark with most models now suggesting
another round of snow with generally an inch or less of accumulation.
This second round would develop as a more narrow band since it
will be driven by frontal dynamics in the vicinity of a stalled
elevated boundary. This type of mesoscale forcing can be tricky for
models to resolve, especially this far out, so confidence is quite a
bit lower for Sunday. Taking an average of model solutions would
favor an inch or so along a 30- to 50-mile-wide corridor somewhere
near or south of I-70. This is the preferred solution at this time,
although it`s worth noting the GFS has been a bit persistent in
bringing stronger ageostrophic forcing and higher precipitation
amounts to a narrow corridor near or just south of I-70. This is
something to watch in case other models decide to hop on board this
solution, in which case a winter storm warning could be needed for
some areas.

Another round of widespread precipitation will move across the area
Monday and Monday night, although this is looking more and more like
rain with developing consensus that the primary surface low will
track to our north. There could be some periods of freezing rain or
sleet Monday morning if this precipitation arrives before
temperatures have time to rise above freezing, but significant icing
doesn`t look to be a concern at this time. Total rainfall amounts
with this round could reach between a half inch and an inch for many
locations.

Tuesday/Tuesday night could bring a bit of light snow to the region
as this system departs to the east, otherwise the forecast looks to
quiet down as we head into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 508 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period.
Sustained north winds at around 10 to 12 kts will continue through
the next few hours, then will begin to diminish and gradually turn
to the east after 06z. Light east to southeast winds are expected
Friday, along the with continued clear skies.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 262308
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
508 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Cold is the main concern for the next 36 hours with a deep 1042 mb
high building in from the north. Light winds and clear skies
associated this feature should allow temperatures to drop a few
degrees below zero, especially where snow is on the ground over
northern Missouri. Elsewhere temperatures will bottom out a few
degrees above zero. Wind chills across the Macon and Kirksville areas
may get near or slightly below -15 early Friday morning. While this
is typically our criteria for a wind chill advisory, these areas have
seen plenty of nights with wind chills this cold this winter, so they
were left out of any wind chill advisory to match up with offices to
the northeast where criteria is a bit lower.

Confidence continues to increase for accumulating snow Saturday and
Saturday night, as most models have come into agreement on a wide
swath of 3" to 6" across much of the forecast area. The primary
forcing mechanisms with this system, deep isentropic/synoptic-scale
ascent, are typically better resolved by models and more widespread
than some of the more smaller-scale features that have driven many
of the more recent events. This gives more wiggle room in case models
change track or intensity, so confidence is higher for Saturday`s
event than it has been with some of the other systems we`ve dealt
with lately. No watch will be issued at this time since snow amounts
should be generally under 6" through late Saturday night.

Sunday is more of a question mark with most models now suggesting
another round of snow with generally an inch or less of accumulation.
This second round would develop as a more narrow band since it
will be driven by frontal dynamics in the vicinity of a stalled
elevated boundary. This type of mesoscale forcing can be tricky for
models to resolve, especially this far out, so confidence is quite a
bit lower for Sunday. Taking an average of model solutions would
favor an inch or so along a 30- to 50-mile-wide corridor somewhere
near or south of I-70. This is the preferred solution at this time,
although it`s worth noting the GFS has been a bit persistent in
bringing stronger ageostrophic forcing and higher precipitation
amounts to a narrow corridor near or just south of I-70. This is
something to watch in case other models decide to hop on board this
solution, in which case a winter storm warning could be needed for
some areas.

Another round of widespread precipitation will move across the area
Monday and Monday night, although this is looking more and more like
rain with developing consensus that the primary surface low will
track to our north. There could be some periods of freezing rain or
sleet Monday morning if this precipitation arrives before
temperatures have time to rise above freezing, but significant icing
doesn`t look to be a concern at this time. Total rainfall amounts
with this round could reach between a half inch and an inch for many
locations.

Tuesday/Tuesday night could bring a bit of light snow to the region
as this system departs to the east, otherwise the forecast looks to
quiet down as we head into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 508 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period.
Sustained north winds at around 10 to 12 kts will continue through
the next few hours, then will begin to diminish and gradually turn
to the east after 06z. Light east to southeast winds are expected
Friday, along the with continued clear skies.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Laflin





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000
FXUS63 KLSX 262154
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
354 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 327 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

Cold air continues to filter into the area as a strong surface
ridge noses into the area. The final glimpses of light snow
flurries are coming to an end near the St. Louis metro area, with
maybe another hour or two before the snow completely cuts off.
Regardless of how much longer the flurries continue, further
accumulations through the evening are very unlikely, so have
generally trended PoPs downward through the rest of the evening.
Overnight lows will be rather chilly as the surface high moves
overhead, with temperatures on Friday morning reaching between 0
and 10 degrees along and south of I-70, with temperatures between
0 and -5 across areas north of I-70. With the new snow pack over
far northern Missouri and good radiational cool and little to no
wind, there could be few isolated spots dropping to between -5 and
-10 over far northern Missouri and Illinois. Since the surface
high will be overhead for the night expect winds to drop off to
around 0 to 5 mph, especially over the snow pack where the surface
ridge will be more centered. This will help keep the wind chill
values from plummeting too much. With WC values generally in the
-10 to -15 range in far N Missouri and Illinois have opted to
forgo a wind chill advisory for that area, at least for now. Will
let the evening and midnight shift take one more look at it.

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 327 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

With the cold air solidly in place over the are it will set the
stage for a winter system to affect a large portion of the
forecast area for the weekend and again early next week. Broad
troughing over the northern part of the CONUS will bring mostly
zonal mid level flow over the forecast area. As a more potent area
of low pressure energy digs into the west coast a low level trough will
take form over the interior mountain west and start a flow of warm
air advection into the area. With the warm/moist air
isentropically lifting over the cooler air in place it will
gradually re saturate the atmospheric column and start to
precipitate Saturday afternoon to evening across central Missouri
and probably Saturday night for eastern Missouri and western
Illinois. Since the thermal profile will be very cold, expect this
activity to be all in the form of snow. At least for now it does
not appear that P-type will be in much question, especially for
the Saturday night period. At this time it does not appear that
there will be much in the way of heavy snow, but the prolonged
nature of the warm air advection, as the low stays anchored over
the west coast will provide at least 24, and perhaps 36 hours of
very light snow, which will likely accumulate several inches
through the weekend. Right now the models still favor a track of
the higher snow amounts to be generally along and north of
Interstate 70, and this makes sense since this corridor will have
the better chance to maintain a cool enough thermal profile to
keep everything snow. Farther south, in southern MO and IL there
is a chance that some warmer low level temps could creep into the
thermal profile, which would maybe cause some mixed precip types
on Sunday. Given some lingering model discrepancy the confidence
on specific amounts in a given location are still somewhat low to
medium, however it does appear that areas along and north of I-70
will see several inches of accumulating snow, perhaps getting up
to 4 to 6 inches. As stated above, standard uncertainty caveats
apply, so amounts and locations will likely shift as we approach
the event.

The focus then shifts to early next week as another wave of energy
ejects out of the desert southwest and into the forecast area.
This trough will be a bit more potent than the weekend system, and
will likely draw in more low level warm air and more moisture. At
this point both EC and GFS would hint toward a large portion of
the forecast area, especially areas south of I-70 getting mostly
rain, with a few hours on either side of the rainy period of
wintry mix as the thermal column warms up. Confidence is rising
that there will be at least a decent amount of precipitation over
a widespread area through the early to mid week period, but again,
thermal column uncertainty will preclude any hard amounts and
locations for any specific precip type. By late next week another
strong cold front will sweep through and scour out the moisture,
effectively ending chance for PoPs and ushering another cool down
for the end of next week.



&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

Radar trends and most recent soundings indicate another few hours
of very light snow, with likely VFR/MVFR VSBY at the St. Louis
terminals. Gradual improvement with VSBY with time as the snow
moves out, then MVFR CIGS for several more hours after that, with
gradual improvement in the CIGS overnight.

Specifics for KSTL: Light snow will move through over the next few
hours, with gradual improvement in VSBY, however CIGS will remain
MVFR for several more hours. Soundings indicate possible thin MVFR
stratus in the 24-30 hour time frame, but low confidence would
preclude any mention for now.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KEAX 262144
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
344 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Cold is the main concern for the next 36 hours with a deep 1042 mb
high building in from the north. Light winds and clear skies
associated this feature should allow temperatures to drop a few
degrees below zero, especially where snow is on the ground over
northern Missouri. Elsewhere temperatures will bottom out a few
degrees above zero. Wind chills across the Macon and Kirksville areas
may get near or slightly below -15 early Friday morning. While this
is typically our criteria for a wind chill advisory, these areas have
seen plenty of nights with wind chills this cold this winter, so they
were left out of any wind chill advisory to match up with offices to
the northeast where criteria is a bit lower.

Confidence continues to increase for accumulating snow Saturday and
Saturday night, as most models have come into agreement on a wide
swath of 3" to 6" across much of the forecast area. The primary
forcing mechanisms with this system, deep isentropic/synoptic-scale
ascent, are typically better resolved by models and more widespread
than some of the more smaller-scale features that have driven many
of the more recent events. This gives more wiggle room in case models
change track or intensity, so confidence is higher for Saturday`s
event than it has been with some of the other systems we`ve dealt
with lately. No watch will be issued at this time since snow amounts
should be generally under 6" through late Saturday night.

Sunday is more of a question mark with most models now suggesting
another round of snow with generally an inch or less of accumulation.
This second round would develop as a more narrow band since it
will be driven by frontal dynamics in the vicinity of a stalled
elevated boundary. This type of mesoscale forcing can be tricky for
models to resolve, especially this far out, so confidence is quite a
bit lower for Sunday. Taking an average of model solutions would
favor an inch or so along a 30- to 50-mile-wide corridor somewhere
near or south of I-70. This is the preferred solution at this time,
although it`s worth noting the GFS has been a bit persistent in
bringing stronger ageostrophic forcing and higher precipitation
amounts to a narrow corridor near or just south of I-70. This is
something to watch in case other models decide to hop on board this
solution, in which case a winter storm warning could be needed for
some areas.

Another round of widespread precipitation will move across the area
Monday and Monday night, although this is looking more and more like
rain with developing consensus that the primary surface low will
track to our north. There could be some periods of freezing rain or
sleet Monday morning if this precipitation arrives before
temperatures have time to rise above freezing, but significant icing
doesn`t look to be a concern at this time. Total rainfall amounts
with this round could reach between a half inch and an inch for many
locations.

Tuesday/Tuesday night could bring a bit of light snow to the region
as this system departs to the east, otherwise the forecast looks to
quiet down as we head into the middle of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

A few cumulus developing north of MCI and STJ could build a bit
toward the KC area, but these should be isolated to scattered in
nature with no broken ceilings expected. Bases will rise from MVFR
into VFR. Otherwise no significant aviation concerns for the next 24
hours.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 262144
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
344 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Cold is the main concern for the next 36 hours with a deep 1042 mb
high building in from the north. Light winds and clear skies
associated this feature should allow temperatures to drop a few
degrees below zero, especially where snow is on the ground over
northern Missouri. Elsewhere temperatures will bottom out a few
degrees above zero. Wind chills across the Macon and Kirksville areas
may get near or slightly below -15 early Friday morning. While this
is typically our criteria for a wind chill advisory, these areas have
seen plenty of nights with wind chills this cold this winter, so they
were left out of any wind chill advisory to match up with offices to
the northeast where criteria is a bit lower.

Confidence continues to increase for accumulating snow Saturday and
Saturday night, as most models have come into agreement on a wide
swath of 3" to 6" across much of the forecast area. The primary
forcing mechanisms with this system, deep isentropic/synoptic-scale
ascent, are typically better resolved by models and more widespread
than some of the more smaller-scale features that have driven many
of the more recent events. This gives more wiggle room in case models
change track or intensity, so confidence is higher for Saturday`s
event than it has been with some of the other systems we`ve dealt
with lately. No watch will be issued at this time since snow amounts
should be generally under 6" through late Saturday night.

Sunday is more of a question mark with most models now suggesting
another round of snow with generally an inch or less of accumulation.
This second round would develop as a more narrow band since it
will be driven by frontal dynamics in the vicinity of a stalled
elevated boundary. This type of mesoscale forcing can be tricky for
models to resolve, especially this far out, so confidence is quite a
bit lower for Sunday. Taking an average of model solutions would
favor an inch or so along a 30- to 50-mile-wide corridor somewhere
near or south of I-70. This is the preferred solution at this time,
although it`s worth noting the GFS has been a bit persistent in
bringing stronger ageostrophic forcing and higher precipitation
amounts to a narrow corridor near or just south of I-70. This is
something to watch in case other models decide to hop on board this
solution, in which case a winter storm warning could be needed for
some areas.

Another round of widespread precipitation will move across the area
Monday and Monday night, although this is looking more and more like
rain with developing consensus that the primary surface low will
track to our north. There could be some periods of freezing rain or
sleet Monday morning if this precipitation arrives before
temperatures have time to rise above freezing, but significant icing
doesn`t look to be a concern at this time. Total rainfall amounts
with this round could reach between a half inch and an inch for many
locations.

Tuesday/Tuesday night could bring a bit of light snow to the region
as this system departs to the east, otherwise the forecast looks to
quiet down as we head into the middle of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

A few cumulus developing north of MCI and STJ could build a bit
toward the KC area, but these should be isolated to scattered in
nature with no broken ceilings expected. Bases will rise from MVFR
into VFR. Otherwise no significant aviation concerns for the next 24
hours.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel





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000
FXUS63 KSGF 262121
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
321 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 308 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

An Arctic airmass continues to advect into the area this
afternoon, with temperatures topping out in the mid 20s in most
locations. With a steady north winds across the region, wind
chills have remained in the teens.

Deep high pressure, currently centered over northeastern Montana,
will build south through the Missouri River basin tonight into
tomorrow morning. This should set the stage for a very cold night
tonight, with lows ranging from around 10 degrees across
southeastern Kansas and far southern Missouri, to the single
digits across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. With the
center of the high remaining just to our north throughout the
night, a light northeast to easterly breeze will be maintained
overnight. This will help drop wind chills to between 5 and 10
below zero in most locations.

That cold, and dry, airmass will slowly translate east tomorrow,
with temperatures on Friday only in the low 20s. An area of
light snow will try to impinge on the area from the southwest
tomorrow afternoon and evening, but it`s not clear at this time
whether the magnitude of the dry air will be too great to keep
anything of significance from making it into the CWA. Will
maintain a very low end chance for light snow over the
southwestern portions of the forecast area Friday afternoon and
evening.

Temperatures Friday night should then fall back into the teens, as
winds become southeasterly with time.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 308 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

A very active pattern is expected from this weekend into the
middle of next week as an upper level trough of low pressure
deepens over the western U.S. and puts the Ozarks in an increasing
southwesterly flow aloft. The first time period of concern will be
from Saturday into Saturday night as multiple weak short wave
troughs eject across the central Plains and towards the Mid-
Mississippi Valley. While those waves will provide some weak upper
level lift, the main lifting mechanisms will be in the lower and
middle levels of the atmosphere as isentropic upglide overspreads
the region.

Expectations have not changed much...with precipitation onset
expected from west to east from Saturday into Saturday evening.
Precipitation will initially be in the form of snow with perhaps
some sleet mixed in at onset. Models do then bring a warm nose
into southern Missouri starting Saturday evening and progress it
north into Sunday morning. Models do differ on how far north this
feature will make it...along with some timing differences.
Nevertheless, confidence continues to increase that we will see
light freezing rain potential spread from south to north
throughout the period. Precipitation may then change to rain from
south to north on Sunday as temperatures warm into the upper 30s
to lower 40s. While precipitation should tend to taper off into
Sunday night, some very light precipitation (in the form of rain
or freezing rain) will remain possible.

As for snow and ice accumulation amounts, current expectations are
for a general 1-3" swath north of a Cassville to Winona line.
The heaviest totals would be across west-central Missouri and back
towards the Fort Scott, Kansas area. We could see amounts push 4"
over parts of that area. Ice accumulations are expected to remain
below a tenth of an inch. We painted the "highest" amounts
generally along and south of a Pittsburg, Kansas to Salem,
Missouri line where confidence is highest regarding warm nose
intrusion. Accumulations may need to be increased across central
Missouri if confidence increases that the warm nose will make it
that far north.

While we may see a break in the action from later Sunday night
into early Monday, it will be short-lived. The upper level flow
will continue to amplify with the Ozarks becoming firmly
established in a southwesterly flow aloft. Global models have
increased their trend towards a warmer solution as precipitation
once again overspreads the area from later Monday into Monday
night. If this trend holds, this should support mainly liquid
precipitation. Interestingly, models are actually showing a pretty
decent signal for returning moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and
resulting instability. We have therefore introduced a chance for
thunder. We have also continued the trends of warming temperatures
as we get into Tuesday. One item we will have to watch is hydro as
this pattern would support decent rainfall potential.

Global models then depict some sort of trailing wave which could
extend precipitation chances into the Wednesday or Thursday time
frame. Confidence is low on whether or not this will occur, so we
kept PoPs in the 20-30% range once we get beyond Tuesday night.
After what may be a mild Tuesday, temperatures will cool off by
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR conditions are expected through mid day tomorrow at all
terminals. High pressure will sink south-southeast across the
Missouri River Valley tonight, resulting in northerly winds
becoming northeast with time, and eventually easterly by mid day
tomorrow. Sct high level clouds will remain across the region,
with some mid level clouds beginning to move into far southwestern
Missouri by very late in the TAF period on Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Boxell






000
FXUS63 KEAX 261756
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1156 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Short Range (Today through Friday night):

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for light
snow across the eastern CWA early this morning and the very cold
temperatures and wind chill values through Friday.

The cold front that brought rain and light snow to the area has
pushed well to the south. Strong cold air advection will continue
today bringing very cold and dry air to the area today. Wind chill
values this morning will range from near zero across the
southeastern CWA to 15 below zero across the northwestern CWA. With
the strong CAA continuing through the day today temperatures will
only achieve the teens to lower 20s. Factoring in the strong
northerly winds and wind chill values will be in the single digits
above and below zero across the CWA during the daytime hours.
Tonight, a 1042mb Arctic high will build directly over the area.
Good radiational cooling will allow temperatures to plummet into the
single digit above zero to the single digits below zero. Although
winds will be light, wind chill values will range from 5 to 15
degrees below zero. The Arctic high will remain in control over the
area through most of the day on Friday keeping highs in the teens to
lower 20s. Friday night, winds will pick up from the southeast and
clouds will be on the increase out ahead of this weekends storm
system. Lows will range from the single digits to mid teens.

Medium Range (Saturday through Sunday night):

This weekends weather maker is expected to move onshore in the
Pacific Northwest tonight. It will continue to dig south across the
western CONUS Friday through Saturday morning. Flow across the
eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS will be quasi-zonal. Several shortwaves
will eject out from the western CONUS trough and will move into the
central Plains by Saturday morning. Precipitation will begin to
overspread the area from west to east Saturday afternoon and
temperatures and model soundings support all snow. Snow is then
expected through persist through Saturday night and into Sunday.
Models are consistent in producing 4 to 8 inches of snow and have
shown run to run consistency as well. Providing no big deviations in
model runs, a winter weather watch or high-end winter advisory will
have to be considered in the next 24 hours. Sunday night, model
soundings show that we begin to lose moisture in the snow growth
zone and sleet may become the predominant p-type.

Long Range (Monday through Wednesday):

This period continues to look active as shortwaves continue to eject
out from the aforementioned western CONUS trough which by Monday
will have dug into the southwestern CONUS. In response to the
digging trough out west, weak upper ridging will begin to develop
over the region. This will help temperatures warm into the 30s to
near 40 on Monday. The next shortwave will reach the area on Monday.
With surface temperatures warming well above freezing across the
southern CWA and model soundings indicating a modest warm nose,
p-type will be an issue on Monday and Monday night. Current thinking
is that most of the CWA will see a wintry mix perhaps changing over
to all rain during the afternoon except across the extreme northern
CWA where p-type at this time looks to remain snow and sleet. Models
on Tuesday and Wednesday disagree on how quickly the main upper
trough over the southwestern CONUS will push into the Plains
however, what is evident is that precipitation will be rain until
the upper level trough force an associated cold front through the
area at which time light snow will again be possible on the back
side. As such, have rain in the forecast for Tuesday with rain
changing over to snow Tuesday night and light snow possible on
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

A few cumulus developing north of MCI and STJ could build a bit
toward the KC area, but these should be isolated to scattered in
nature with no broken ceilings expected. Bases will rise from MVFR
into VFR. Otherwise no significant aviation concerns for the next 24
hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 261756
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1156 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Short Range (Today through Friday night):

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for light
snow across the eastern CWA early this morning and the very cold
temperatures and wind chill values through Friday.

The cold front that brought rain and light snow to the area has
pushed well to the south. Strong cold air advection will continue
today bringing very cold and dry air to the area today. Wind chill
values this morning will range from near zero across the
southeastern CWA to 15 below zero across the northwestern CWA. With
the strong CAA continuing through the day today temperatures will
only achieve the teens to lower 20s. Factoring in the strong
northerly winds and wind chill values will be in the single digits
above and below zero across the CWA during the daytime hours.
Tonight, a 1042mb Arctic high will build directly over the area.
Good radiational cooling will allow temperatures to plummet into the
single digit above zero to the single digits below zero. Although
winds will be light, wind chill values will range from 5 to 15
degrees below zero. The Arctic high will remain in control over the
area through most of the day on Friday keeping highs in the teens to
lower 20s. Friday night, winds will pick up from the southeast and
clouds will be on the increase out ahead of this weekends storm
system. Lows will range from the single digits to mid teens.

Medium Range (Saturday through Sunday night):

This weekends weather maker is expected to move onshore in the
Pacific Northwest tonight. It will continue to dig south across the
western CONUS Friday through Saturday morning. Flow across the
eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS will be quasi-zonal. Several shortwaves
will eject out from the western CONUS trough and will move into the
central Plains by Saturday morning. Precipitation will begin to
overspread the area from west to east Saturday afternoon and
temperatures and model soundings support all snow. Snow is then
expected through persist through Saturday night and into Sunday.
Models are consistent in producing 4 to 8 inches of snow and have
shown run to run consistency as well. Providing no big deviations in
model runs, a winter weather watch or high-end winter advisory will
have to be considered in the next 24 hours. Sunday night, model
soundings show that we begin to lose moisture in the snow growth
zone and sleet may become the predominant p-type.

Long Range (Monday through Wednesday):

This period continues to look active as shortwaves continue to eject
out from the aforementioned western CONUS trough which by Monday
will have dug into the southwestern CONUS. In response to the
digging trough out west, weak upper ridging will begin to develop
over the region. This will help temperatures warm into the 30s to
near 40 on Monday. The next shortwave will reach the area on Monday.
With surface temperatures warming well above freezing across the
southern CWA and model soundings indicating a modest warm nose,
p-type will be an issue on Monday and Monday night. Current thinking
is that most of the CWA will see a wintry mix perhaps changing over
to all rain during the afternoon except across the extreme northern
CWA where p-type at this time looks to remain snow and sleet. Models
on Tuesday and Wednesday disagree on how quickly the main upper
trough over the southwestern CONUS will push into the Plains
however, what is evident is that precipitation will be rain until
the upper level trough force an associated cold front through the
area at which time light snow will again be possible on the back
side. As such, have rain in the forecast for Tuesday with rain
changing over to snow Tuesday night and light snow possible on
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

A few cumulus developing north of MCI and STJ could build a bit
toward the KC area, but these should be isolated to scattered in
nature with no broken ceilings expected. Bases will rise from MVFR
into VFR. Otherwise no significant aviation concerns for the next 24
hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Hawblitzel






000
FXUS63 KEAX 261756
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1156 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Short Range (Today through Friday night):

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for light
snow across the eastern CWA early this morning and the very cold
temperatures and wind chill values through Friday.

The cold front that brought rain and light snow to the area has
pushed well to the south. Strong cold air advection will continue
today bringing very cold and dry air to the area today. Wind chill
values this morning will range from near zero across the
southeastern CWA to 15 below zero across the northwestern CWA. With
the strong CAA continuing through the day today temperatures will
only achieve the teens to lower 20s. Factoring in the strong
northerly winds and wind chill values will be in the single digits
above and below zero across the CWA during the daytime hours.
Tonight, a 1042mb Arctic high will build directly over the area.
Good radiational cooling will allow temperatures to plummet into the
single digit above zero to the single digits below zero. Although
winds will be light, wind chill values will range from 5 to 15
degrees below zero. The Arctic high will remain in control over the
area through most of the day on Friday keeping highs in the teens to
lower 20s. Friday night, winds will pick up from the southeast and
clouds will be on the increase out ahead of this weekends storm
system. Lows will range from the single digits to mid teens.

Medium Range (Saturday through Sunday night):

This weekends weather maker is expected to move onshore in the
Pacific Northwest tonight. It will continue to dig south across the
western CONUS Friday through Saturday morning. Flow across the
eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS will be quasi-zonal. Several shortwaves
will eject out from the western CONUS trough and will move into the
central Plains by Saturday morning. Precipitation will begin to
overspread the area from west to east Saturday afternoon and
temperatures and model soundings support all snow. Snow is then
expected through persist through Saturday night and into Sunday.
Models are consistent in producing 4 to 8 inches of snow and have
shown run to run consistency as well. Providing no big deviations in
model runs, a winter weather watch or high-end winter advisory will
have to be considered in the next 24 hours. Sunday night, model
soundings show that we begin to lose moisture in the snow growth
zone and sleet may become the predominant p-type.

Long Range (Monday through Wednesday):

This period continues to look active as shortwaves continue to eject
out from the aforementioned western CONUS trough which by Monday
will have dug into the southwestern CONUS. In response to the
digging trough out west, weak upper ridging will begin to develop
over the region. This will help temperatures warm into the 30s to
near 40 on Monday. The next shortwave will reach the area on Monday.
With surface temperatures warming well above freezing across the
southern CWA and model soundings indicating a modest warm nose,
p-type will be an issue on Monday and Monday night. Current thinking
is that most of the CWA will see a wintry mix perhaps changing over
to all rain during the afternoon except across the extreme northern
CWA where p-type at this time looks to remain snow and sleet. Models
on Tuesday and Wednesday disagree on how quickly the main upper
trough over the southwestern CONUS will push into the Plains
however, what is evident is that precipitation will be rain until
the upper level trough force an associated cold front through the
area at which time light snow will again be possible on the back
side. As such, have rain in the forecast for Tuesday with rain
changing over to snow Tuesday night and light snow possible on
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

A few cumulus developing north of MCI and STJ could build a bit
toward the KC area, but these should be isolated to scattered in
nature with no broken ceilings expected. Bases will rise from MVFR
into VFR. Otherwise no significant aviation concerns for the next 24
hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Hawblitzel






000
FXUS63 KLSX 261733
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1133 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 308 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

Shortwave digging over northeast Missouri and associated cold front
now moving through the I-44 corridor will continue to produce light
snow through the first part of the morning.  Have also had a few
reports of freezing drizzle back in central Missouri, but not sure
how long this will last so have opted not to mention in the forecast
at this time.  Will continue to monitor and update if freezing
drizzle ends up persisting.  Both NAM and GFS show some decent low
level frontogenetical forcing back on the cold side of the front
before 12Z this morning...but the forcing quickly diminishes between
12Z and 15Z.  Mesoscale models do keep light snow going for a few
hours this morning, but really back off the precip by 15Z like the
operational models.  Both NSSL and NCEP 4km WRF models pop up what
look like instability snow showers this afternoon, so have kept
chance PoPs going into the afternoon primarily along and east of the
Mississippi River.  Total accumulations of 1 inch or less look
likely along and south of the I-70 corridor with 1-3 inches north
and northeast of St. Louis...primarily across west central and parts
of southwest Illinois.  Will continue headlines as they are this
morning.  Stuck close to the cold side of guidance for temperatures
today as the cold Arctic high moves in behind the cold front.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 527 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

Arctic high builds overhead tonight into Friday.  Doesn`t look like
we`ll set any record lows Friday morning, however widespread
temperatures near or below zero can be expected from central and
northeast Missouri into west central Illinois with single digits
elsewhere.  With the cold start to the morning, it`s likely
temperatures will struggle to make the teens on Friday.  Southerly
flow develops Friday night into Saturday and while it should be
warmer, temperatures will still be well below normal.

Looks like an active weather pattern coming up for late Saturday
into next week.  The persistent ridge over the western CONUS/eastern
Pacific that we`ve been dealing with for the past several weeks is
breaking down and it looks like we`ll get into a southwest flow
regime by late Saturday and into Sunday.  While this means we will
most likely see warmer temperatures, it also looks like a much
wetter pattern than we`ve had recently.  Have several periods of
likely PoPs headed out into the medium range beginning late Saturday
continuing into Saturday night and Sunday in a warm advection
pattern.  Precipitation types are difficult to pin down at this time
with the receding Arctic air mass potentially causing a wintry mix.
Another bout of warm advection precip develops on Monday night and
continues into Tuesday.  Again, low level temperatures will likely
dictate what falls, but there may be more liquid rain than wintry
mix, especially into Tuesday with good southerly flow developing at
the surface.  Regardless, this will be a challenging forecast due to
the mixed precip types and inherent difficulty in forecasting
shallow layers in the medium range.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

Radar trends and most recent soundings indicate another few hours
of very light snow, with likely VFR/MVFR VSBY at the St. Louis
terminals. Gradual improvement with VSBY with time as the snow
moves out, then MVFR CIGS for several more hours after that, with
gradual improvement in the CIGS overnight.

Specifics for KSTL: Light snow will move through over the next few
hours, with gradual improvement in VSBY, however CIGS will remain
MVFR for several more hours. Soundings indicate possible thin MVFR
stratus in the 24-30 hour time frame, but low confidence would
preclude any mention for now.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KLSX 261733
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1133 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 308 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

Shortwave digging over northeast Missouri and associated cold front
now moving through the I-44 corridor will continue to produce light
snow through the first part of the morning.  Have also had a few
reports of freezing drizzle back in central Missouri, but not sure
how long this will last so have opted not to mention in the forecast
at this time.  Will continue to monitor and update if freezing
drizzle ends up persisting.  Both NAM and GFS show some decent low
level frontogenetical forcing back on the cold side of the front
before 12Z this morning...but the forcing quickly diminishes between
12Z and 15Z.  Mesoscale models do keep light snow going for a few
hours this morning, but really back off the precip by 15Z like the
operational models.  Both NSSL and NCEP 4km WRF models pop up what
look like instability snow showers this afternoon, so have kept
chance PoPs going into the afternoon primarily along and east of the
Mississippi River.  Total accumulations of 1 inch or less look
likely along and south of the I-70 corridor with 1-3 inches north
and northeast of St. Louis...primarily across west central and parts
of southwest Illinois.  Will continue headlines as they are this
morning.  Stuck close to the cold side of guidance for temperatures
today as the cold Arctic high moves in behind the cold front.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 527 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

Arctic high builds overhead tonight into Friday.  Doesn`t look like
we`ll set any record lows Friday morning, however widespread
temperatures near or below zero can be expected from central and
northeast Missouri into west central Illinois with single digits
elsewhere.  With the cold start to the morning, it`s likely
temperatures will struggle to make the teens on Friday.  Southerly
flow develops Friday night into Saturday and while it should be
warmer, temperatures will still be well below normal.

Looks like an active weather pattern coming up for late Saturday
into next week.  The persistent ridge over the western CONUS/eastern
Pacific that we`ve been dealing with for the past several weeks is
breaking down and it looks like we`ll get into a southwest flow
regime by late Saturday and into Sunday.  While this means we will
most likely see warmer temperatures, it also looks like a much
wetter pattern than we`ve had recently.  Have several periods of
likely PoPs headed out into the medium range beginning late Saturday
continuing into Saturday night and Sunday in a warm advection
pattern.  Precipitation types are difficult to pin down at this time
with the receding Arctic air mass potentially causing a wintry mix.
Another bout of warm advection precip develops on Monday night and
continues into Tuesday.  Again, low level temperatures will likely
dictate what falls, but there may be more liquid rain than wintry
mix, especially into Tuesday with good southerly flow developing at
the surface.  Regardless, this will be a challenging forecast due to
the mixed precip types and inherent difficulty in forecasting
shallow layers in the medium range.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

Radar trends and most recent soundings indicate another few hours
of very light snow, with likely VFR/MVFR VSBY at the St. Louis
terminals. Gradual improvement with VSBY with time as the snow
moves out, then MVFR CIGS for several more hours after that, with
gradual improvement in the CIGS overnight.

Specifics for KSTL: Light snow will move through over the next few
hours, with gradual improvement in VSBY, however CIGS will remain
MVFR for several more hours. Soundings indicate possible thin MVFR
stratus in the 24-30 hour time frame, but low confidence would
preclude any mention for now.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KLSX 261733
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1133 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 308 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

Shortwave digging over northeast Missouri and associated cold front
now moving through the I-44 corridor will continue to produce light
snow through the first part of the morning.  Have also had a few
reports of freezing drizzle back in central Missouri, but not sure
how long this will last so have opted not to mention in the forecast
at this time.  Will continue to monitor and update if freezing
drizzle ends up persisting.  Both NAM and GFS show some decent low
level frontogenetical forcing back on the cold side of the front
before 12Z this morning...but the forcing quickly diminishes between
12Z and 15Z.  Mesoscale models do keep light snow going for a few
hours this morning, but really back off the precip by 15Z like the
operational models.  Both NSSL and NCEP 4km WRF models pop up what
look like instability snow showers this afternoon, so have kept
chance PoPs going into the afternoon primarily along and east of the
Mississippi River.  Total accumulations of 1 inch or less look
likely along and south of the I-70 corridor with 1-3 inches north
and northeast of St. Louis...primarily across west central and parts
of southwest Illinois.  Will continue headlines as they are this
morning.  Stuck close to the cold side of guidance for temperatures
today as the cold Arctic high moves in behind the cold front.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 527 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

Arctic high builds overhead tonight into Friday.  Doesn`t look like
we`ll set any record lows Friday morning, however widespread
temperatures near or below zero can be expected from central and
northeast Missouri into west central Illinois with single digits
elsewhere.  With the cold start to the morning, it`s likely
temperatures will struggle to make the teens on Friday.  Southerly
flow develops Friday night into Saturday and while it should be
warmer, temperatures will still be well below normal.

Looks like an active weather pattern coming up for late Saturday
into next week.  The persistent ridge over the western CONUS/eastern
Pacific that we`ve been dealing with for the past several weeks is
breaking down and it looks like we`ll get into a southwest flow
regime by late Saturday and into Sunday.  While this means we will
most likely see warmer temperatures, it also looks like a much
wetter pattern than we`ve had recently.  Have several periods of
likely PoPs headed out into the medium range beginning late Saturday
continuing into Saturday night and Sunday in a warm advection
pattern.  Precipitation types are difficult to pin down at this time
with the receding Arctic air mass potentially causing a wintry mix.
Another bout of warm advection precip develops on Monday night and
continues into Tuesday.  Again, low level temperatures will likely
dictate what falls, but there may be more liquid rain than wintry
mix, especially into Tuesday with good southerly flow developing at
the surface.  Regardless, this will be a challenging forecast due to
the mixed precip types and inherent difficulty in forecasting
shallow layers in the medium range.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

Radar trends and most recent soundings indicate another few hours
of very light snow, with likely VFR/MVFR VSBY at the St. Louis
terminals. Gradual improvement with VSBY with time as the snow
moves out, then MVFR CIGS for several more hours after that, with
gradual improvement in the CIGS overnight.

Specifics for KSTL: Light snow will move through over the next few
hours, with gradual improvement in VSBY, however CIGS will remain
MVFR for several more hours. Soundings indicate possible thin MVFR
stratus in the 24-30 hour time frame, but low confidence would
preclude any mention for now.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS63 KSGF 261720
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1120 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

...18Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

After a brief respite from the cold weather, Arctic air has
returned with a vengeance behind a cold front that swept across
the area. Some very light snow or flurries and perhaps a brief
period of freezing drizzle was accompanying this intrusion of
Arctic air. A light dusting of snow of less than an inch is still
possible across central Missouri mainly from the Lake of the
Ozarks region into the eastern Ozarks.

Temperatures will continue to fall into the morning before
leveling off this afternoon. Afternoon temperatures will struggle
to reach 20 degrees. Lows tonight will tumble into the single
digits as the Arctic high builds southward. A steady northerly
wind tonight into early Friday will generate wind chills in the
single digits below zero and may approach 10 below.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Another very cold day is in store for Friday as the Arctic high
pressure system slides to the east. Highs again will struggle
again to climb above 20 degrees.

As been advertised an active weather pattern will develop this weekend
into early next week. The upper pattern will become more zonal as
an upper level trough takes shape out west. A series of disturbances
will eject eastward into the region Saturday and Sunday while a
frontal zone develops. Warm air advection pattern will evolve and
strengthen Saturday and Sunday which will bring gradual warming
initially above the boundary layer and eventually to the surface.

Expect precipitation primarily in the form of snow to develop from
west to east Saturday into Saturday evening. The snow will then
mix with or change to sleet and even some freezing rain later
Saturday night into early Sunday as the warm nose builds north. At
this time there is the potential for light accumulations of snow
and sleet along with minor ice accumulations. Current models prog
temperatures will climb above freezing across most if not all of
the area Sunday changing the precipitation over the rain and
drizzle.

Additional chances of precipitation will continue into early next
week as the upper level trough makes its way eastward. The extent
of warming and the resulting thermal profile remains in question.
However it appears that sufficient warming will take place to keep
most precipitation rain with an occasional wintry mix.

While the confidence level is high that we will see some wintry
weather this weekend there is considerable uncertainty on exact
precipitation types, amounts and timing of transitions. At this
time expect light accumulations of snow, sleet and possibly
freezing rain. This will likely impact travel by Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night and Sunday morning.

Please stay tuned to the latest forecast as we approach the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR conditions are expected through mid day tomorrow at all
terminals. High pressure will sink south-southeast across the
Missouri River Valley tonight, resulting in northerly winds
becoming northeast with time, and eventually easterly by mid day
tomorrow. Sct high level clouds will remain across the region,
with some mid level clouds beginning to move into far southwestern
Missouri by very late in the TAF period on Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Boxell







000
FXUS63 KSGF 261720
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1120 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

...18Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

After a brief respite from the cold weather, Arctic air has
returned with a vengeance behind a cold front that swept across
the area. Some very light snow or flurries and perhaps a brief
period of freezing drizzle was accompanying this intrusion of
Arctic air. A light dusting of snow of less than an inch is still
possible across central Missouri mainly from the Lake of the
Ozarks region into the eastern Ozarks.

Temperatures will continue to fall into the morning before
leveling off this afternoon. Afternoon temperatures will struggle
to reach 20 degrees. Lows tonight will tumble into the single
digits as the Arctic high builds southward. A steady northerly
wind tonight into early Friday will generate wind chills in the
single digits below zero and may approach 10 below.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Another very cold day is in store for Friday as the Arctic high
pressure system slides to the east. Highs again will struggle
again to climb above 20 degrees.

As been advertised an active weather pattern will develop this weekend
into early next week. The upper pattern will become more zonal as
an upper level trough takes shape out west. A series of disturbances
will eject eastward into the region Saturday and Sunday while a
frontal zone develops. Warm air advection pattern will evolve and
strengthen Saturday and Sunday which will bring gradual warming
initially above the boundary layer and eventually to the surface.

Expect precipitation primarily in the form of snow to develop from
west to east Saturday into Saturday evening. The snow will then
mix with or change to sleet and even some freezing rain later
Saturday night into early Sunday as the warm nose builds north. At
this time there is the potential for light accumulations of snow
and sleet along with minor ice accumulations. Current models prog
temperatures will climb above freezing across most if not all of
the area Sunday changing the precipitation over the rain and
drizzle.

Additional chances of precipitation will continue into early next
week as the upper level trough makes its way eastward. The extent
of warming and the resulting thermal profile remains in question.
However it appears that sufficient warming will take place to keep
most precipitation rain with an occasional wintry mix.

While the confidence level is high that we will see some wintry
weather this weekend there is considerable uncertainty on exact
precipitation types, amounts and timing of transitions. At this
time expect light accumulations of snow, sleet and possibly
freezing rain. This will likely impact travel by Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night and Sunday morning.

Please stay tuned to the latest forecast as we approach the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR conditions are expected through mid day tomorrow at all
terminals. High pressure will sink south-southeast across the
Missouri River Valley tonight, resulting in northerly winds
becoming northeast with time, and eventually easterly by mid day
tomorrow. Sct high level clouds will remain across the region,
with some mid level clouds beginning to move into far southwestern
Missouri by very late in the TAF period on Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Boxell








000
FXUS63 KSGF 261720
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1120 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

...18Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

After a brief respite from the cold weather, Arctic air has
returned with a vengeance behind a cold front that swept across
the area. Some very light snow or flurries and perhaps a brief
period of freezing drizzle was accompanying this intrusion of
Arctic air. A light dusting of snow of less than an inch is still
possible across central Missouri mainly from the Lake of the
Ozarks region into the eastern Ozarks.

Temperatures will continue to fall into the morning before
leveling off this afternoon. Afternoon temperatures will struggle
to reach 20 degrees. Lows tonight will tumble into the single
digits as the Arctic high builds southward. A steady northerly
wind tonight into early Friday will generate wind chills in the
single digits below zero and may approach 10 below.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Another very cold day is in store for Friday as the Arctic high
pressure system slides to the east. Highs again will struggle
again to climb above 20 degrees.

As been advertised an active weather pattern will develop this weekend
into early next week. The upper pattern will become more zonal as
an upper level trough takes shape out west. A series of disturbances
will eject eastward into the region Saturday and Sunday while a
frontal zone develops. Warm air advection pattern will evolve and
strengthen Saturday and Sunday which will bring gradual warming
initially above the boundary layer and eventually to the surface.

Expect precipitation primarily in the form of snow to develop from
west to east Saturday into Saturday evening. The snow will then
mix with or change to sleet and even some freezing rain later
Saturday night into early Sunday as the warm nose builds north. At
this time there is the potential for light accumulations of snow
and sleet along with minor ice accumulations. Current models prog
temperatures will climb above freezing across most if not all of
the area Sunday changing the precipitation over the rain and
drizzle.

Additional chances of precipitation will continue into early next
week as the upper level trough makes its way eastward. The extent
of warming and the resulting thermal profile remains in question.
However it appears that sufficient warming will take place to keep
most precipitation rain with an occasional wintry mix.

While the confidence level is high that we will see some wintry
weather this weekend there is considerable uncertainty on exact
precipitation types, amounts and timing of transitions. At this
time expect light accumulations of snow, sleet and possibly
freezing rain. This will likely impact travel by Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night and Sunday morning.

Please stay tuned to the latest forecast as we approach the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR conditions are expected through mid day tomorrow at all
terminals. High pressure will sink south-southeast across the
Missouri River Valley tonight, resulting in northerly winds
becoming northeast with time, and eventually easterly by mid day
tomorrow. Sct high level clouds will remain across the region,
with some mid level clouds beginning to move into far southwestern
Missouri by very late in the TAF period on Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Boxell








000
FXUS63 KLSX 261208
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
608 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 308 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

Shortwave digging over northeast Missouri and associated cold front
now moving through the I-44 corridor will continue to produce light
snow through the first part of the morning.  Have also had a few
reports of freezing drizzle back in central Missouri, but not sure
how long this will last so have opted not to mention in the forecast
at this time.  Will continue to monitor and update if freezing
drizzle ends up persisting.  Both NAM and GFS show some decent low
level frontogenetical forcing back on the cold side of the front
before 12Z this morning...but the forcing quickly diminishes between
12Z and 15Z.  Mesoscale models do keep light snow going for a few
hours this morning, but really back off the precip by 15Z like the
operational models.  Both NSSL and NCEP 4km WRF models pop up what
look like instability snow showers this afternoon, so have kept
chance PoPs going into the afternoon primarily along and east of the
Mississippi River.  Total accumulations of 1 inch or less look
likely along and south of the I-70 corridor with 1-3 inches north
and northeast of St. Louis...primarily across west central and parts
of southwest Illinois.  Will continue headlines as they are this
morning.  Stuck close to the cold side of guidance for temperatures
today as the cold Arctic high moves in behind the cold front.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 527 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

Arctic high builds overhead tonight into Friday.  Doesn`t look like
we`ll set any record lows Friday morning, however widespread
temperatures near or below zero can be expected from central and
northeast Missouri into west central Illinois with single digits
elsewhere.  With the cold start to the morning, it`s likely
temperatures will struggle to make the teens on Friday.  Southerly
flow develops Friday night into Saturday and while it should be
warmer, temperatures will still be well below normal.

Looks like an active weather pattern coming up for late Saturday
into next week.  The persistent ridge over the western CONUS/eastern
Pacific that we`ve been dealing with for the past several weeks is
breaking down and it looks like we`ll get into a southwest flow
regime by late Saturday and into Sunday.  While this means we will
most likely see warmer temperatures, it also looks like a much
wetter pattern than we`ve had recently.  Have several periods of
likely PoPs headed out into the medium range beginning late Saturday
continuing into Saturday night and Sunday in a warm advection
pattern.  Precipitation types are difficult to pin down at this time
with the receding Arctic airmass potentially causing a wintry mix.
Another bout of warm advection precip develops on Monday night and
continues into Tuesday.  Again, low level temperatures will likely
dictate what falls, but there may be more liquid rain than wintry
mix, especially into Tuesday with good southerly flow developing at
the surface.  Regardless, this will be a challenging forecast due to
the mixed precip types and inherent difficulty in forecasting
shallow layers in the medium range.

Carney
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 608 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

Snow continues to track southeast through forecast area this
morning. Snow to taper off from north to south. Otherwise, IFR
conditions to improve to MVFR as heavier snows shift south and
east of taf sites by 14z. Gusty north winds to persist through the
day before diminishing late this afternoon/early this evening.
Cigs to scatter out this evening.

Specifics for KSTL:
Snow continues to track southeast through metro area this
morning. Otherwise, IFR conditions to improve to MVFR as heavier
snows shift south and east of metro area by 14z. Gusty north winds
to persist through the day before diminishing by 22z Thursday. Cigs to
scatter out after 06z Friday.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR Knox MO-
     Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR Adams IL-
     Brown IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$
WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 261208
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
608 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 308 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

Shortwave digging over northeast Missouri and associated cold front
now moving through the I-44 corridor will continue to produce light
snow through the first part of the morning.  Have also had a few
reports of freezing drizzle back in central Missouri, but not sure
how long this will last so have opted not to mention in the forecast
at this time.  Will continue to monitor and update if freezing
drizzle ends up persisting.  Both NAM and GFS show some decent low
level frontogenetical forcing back on the cold side of the front
before 12Z this morning...but the forcing quickly diminishes between
12Z and 15Z.  Mesoscale models do keep light snow going for a few
hours this morning, but really back off the precip by 15Z like the
operational models.  Both NSSL and NCEP 4km WRF models pop up what
look like instability snow showers this afternoon, so have kept
chance PoPs going into the afternoon primarily along and east of the
Mississippi River.  Total accumulations of 1 inch or less look
likely along and south of the I-70 corridor with 1-3 inches north
and northeast of St. Louis...primarily across west central and parts
of southwest Illinois.  Will continue headlines as they are this
morning.  Stuck close to the cold side of guidance for temperatures
today as the cold Arctic high moves in behind the cold front.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 527 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

Arctic high builds overhead tonight into Friday.  Doesn`t look like
we`ll set any record lows Friday morning, however widespread
temperatures near or below zero can be expected from central and
northeast Missouri into west central Illinois with single digits
elsewhere.  With the cold start to the morning, it`s likely
temperatures will struggle to make the teens on Friday.  Southerly
flow develops Friday night into Saturday and while it should be
warmer, temperatures will still be well below normal.

Looks like an active weather pattern coming up for late Saturday
into next week.  The persistent ridge over the western CONUS/eastern
Pacific that we`ve been dealing with for the past several weeks is
breaking down and it looks like we`ll get into a southwest flow
regime by late Saturday and into Sunday.  While this means we will
most likely see warmer temperatures, it also looks like a much
wetter pattern than we`ve had recently.  Have several periods of
likely PoPs headed out into the medium range beginning late Saturday
continuing into Saturday night and Sunday in a warm advection
pattern.  Precipitation types are difficult to pin down at this time
with the receding Arctic airmass potentially causing a wintry mix.
Another bout of warm advection precip develops on Monday night and
continues into Tuesday.  Again, low level temperatures will likely
dictate what falls, but there may be more liquid rain than wintry
mix, especially into Tuesday with good southerly flow developing at
the surface.  Regardless, this will be a challenging forecast due to
the mixed precip types and inherent difficulty in forecasting
shallow layers in the medium range.

Carney
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 608 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

Snow continues to track southeast through forecast area this
morning. Snow to taper off from north to south. Otherwise, IFR
conditions to improve to MVFR as heavier snows shift south and
east of taf sites by 14z. Gusty north winds to persist through the
day before diminishing late this afternoon/early this evening.
Cigs to scatter out this evening.

Specifics for KSTL:
Snow continues to track southeast through metro area this
morning. Otherwise, IFR conditions to improve to MVFR as heavier
snows shift south and east of metro area by 14z. Gusty north winds
to persist through the day before diminishing by 22z Thursday. Cigs to
scatter out after 06z Friday.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR Knox MO-
     Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR Adams IL-
     Brown IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$
WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 261208
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
608 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 308 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

Shortwave digging over northeast Missouri and associated cold front
now moving through the I-44 corridor will continue to produce light
snow through the first part of the morning.  Have also had a few
reports of freezing drizzle back in central Missouri, but not sure
how long this will last so have opted not to mention in the forecast
at this time.  Will continue to monitor and update if freezing
drizzle ends up persisting.  Both NAM and GFS show some decent low
level frontogenetical forcing back on the cold side of the front
before 12Z this morning...but the forcing quickly diminishes between
12Z and 15Z.  Mesoscale models do keep light snow going for a few
hours this morning, but really back off the precip by 15Z like the
operational models.  Both NSSL and NCEP 4km WRF models pop up what
look like instability snow showers this afternoon, so have kept
chance PoPs going into the afternoon primarily along and east of the
Mississippi River.  Total accumulations of 1 inch or less look
likely along and south of the I-70 corridor with 1-3 inches north
and northeast of St. Louis...primarily across west central and parts
of southwest Illinois.  Will continue headlines as they are this
morning.  Stuck close to the cold side of guidance for temperatures
today as the cold Arctic high moves in behind the cold front.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 527 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

Arctic high builds overhead tonight into Friday.  Doesn`t look like
we`ll set any record lows Friday morning, however widespread
temperatures near or below zero can be expected from central and
northeast Missouri into west central Illinois with single digits
elsewhere.  With the cold start to the morning, it`s likely
temperatures will struggle to make the teens on Friday.  Southerly
flow develops Friday night into Saturday and while it should be
warmer, temperatures will still be well below normal.

Looks like an active weather pattern coming up for late Saturday
into next week.  The persistent ridge over the western CONUS/eastern
Pacific that we`ve been dealing with for the past several weeks is
breaking down and it looks like we`ll get into a southwest flow
regime by late Saturday and into Sunday.  While this means we will
most likely see warmer temperatures, it also looks like a much
wetter pattern than we`ve had recently.  Have several periods of
likely PoPs headed out into the medium range beginning late Saturday
continuing into Saturday night and Sunday in a warm advection
pattern.  Precipitation types are difficult to pin down at this time
with the receding Arctic airmass potentially causing a wintry mix.
Another bout of warm advection precip develops on Monday night and
continues into Tuesday.  Again, low level temperatures will likely
dictate what falls, but there may be more liquid rain than wintry
mix, especially into Tuesday with good southerly flow developing at
the surface.  Regardless, this will be a challenging forecast due to
the mixed precip types and inherent difficulty in forecasting
shallow layers in the medium range.

Carney
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 608 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

Snow continues to track southeast through forecast area this
morning. Snow to taper off from north to south. Otherwise, IFR
conditions to improve to MVFR as heavier snows shift south and
east of taf sites by 14z. Gusty north winds to persist through the
day before diminishing late this afternoon/early this evening.
Cigs to scatter out this evening.

Specifics for KSTL:
Snow continues to track southeast through metro area this
morning. Otherwise, IFR conditions to improve to MVFR as heavier
snows shift south and east of metro area by 14z. Gusty north winds
to persist through the day before diminishing by 22z Thursday. Cigs to
scatter out after 06z Friday.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR Knox MO-
     Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR Adams IL-
     Brown IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 261208
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
608 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 308 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

Shortwave digging over northeast Missouri and associated cold front
now moving through the I-44 corridor will continue to produce light
snow through the first part of the morning.  Have also had a few
reports of freezing drizzle back in central Missouri, but not sure
how long this will last so have opted not to mention in the forecast
at this time.  Will continue to monitor and update if freezing
drizzle ends up persisting.  Both NAM and GFS show some decent low
level frontogenetical forcing back on the cold side of the front
before 12Z this morning...but the forcing quickly diminishes between
12Z and 15Z.  Mesoscale models do keep light snow going for a few
hours this morning, but really back off the precip by 15Z like the
operational models.  Both NSSL and NCEP 4km WRF models pop up what
look like instability snow showers this afternoon, so have kept
chance PoPs going into the afternoon primarily along and east of the
Mississippi River.  Total accumulations of 1 inch or less look
likely along and south of the I-70 corridor with 1-3 inches north
and northeast of St. Louis...primarily across west central and parts
of southwest Illinois.  Will continue headlines as they are this
morning.  Stuck close to the cold side of guidance for temperatures
today as the cold Arctic high moves in behind the cold front.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 527 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

Arctic high builds overhead tonight into Friday.  Doesn`t look like
we`ll set any record lows Friday morning, however widespread
temperatures near or below zero can be expected from central and
northeast Missouri into west central Illinois with single digits
elsewhere.  With the cold start to the morning, it`s likely
temperatures will struggle to make the teens on Friday.  Southerly
flow develops Friday night into Saturday and while it should be
warmer, temperatures will still be well below normal.

Looks like an active weather pattern coming up for late Saturday
into next week.  The persistent ridge over the western CONUS/eastern
Pacific that we`ve been dealing with for the past several weeks is
breaking down and it looks like we`ll get into a southwest flow
regime by late Saturday and into Sunday.  While this means we will
most likely see warmer temperatures, it also looks like a much
wetter pattern than we`ve had recently.  Have several periods of
likely PoPs headed out into the medium range beginning late Saturday
continuing into Saturday night and Sunday in a warm advection
pattern.  Precipitation types are difficult to pin down at this time
with the receding Arctic airmass potentially causing a wintry mix.
Another bout of warm advection precip develops on Monday night and
continues into Tuesday.  Again, low level temperatures will likely
dictate what falls, but there may be more liquid rain than wintry
mix, especially into Tuesday with good southerly flow developing at
the surface.  Regardless, this will be a challenging forecast due to
the mixed precip types and inherent difficulty in forecasting
shallow layers in the medium range.

Carney
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 608 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

Snow continues to track southeast through forecast area this
morning. Snow to taper off from north to south. Otherwise, IFR
conditions to improve to MVFR as heavier snows shift south and
east of taf sites by 14z. Gusty north winds to persist through the
day before diminishing late this afternoon/early this evening.
Cigs to scatter out this evening.

Specifics for KSTL:
Snow continues to track southeast through metro area this
morning. Otherwise, IFR conditions to improve to MVFR as heavier
snows shift south and east of metro area by 14z. Gusty north winds
to persist through the day before diminishing by 22z Thursday. Cigs to
scatter out after 06z Friday.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR Knox MO-
     Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR Adams IL-
     Brown IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 261128
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
528 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 308 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

Shortwave digging over northeast Missouri and associated cold front
now moving through the I-44 corridor will continue to produce light
snow through the first part of the morning.  Have also had a few
reports of freezing drizzle back in central Missouri, but not sure
how long this will last so have opted not to mention in the forecast
at this time.  Will continue to monitor and update if freezing
drizzle ends up persisting.  Both NAM and GFS show some decent low
level frontogenetical forcing back on the cold side of the front
before 12Z this morning...but the forcing quickly diminishes between
12Z and 15Z.  Mesoscale models do keep light snow going for a few
hours this morning, but really back off the precip by 15Z like the
operational models.  Both NSSL and NCEP 4km WRF models pop up what
look like instability snow showers this afternoon, so have kept
chance PoPs going into the afternoon primarily along and east of the
Mississippi River.  Total accumulations of 1 inch or less look
likely along and south of the I-70 corridor with 1-3 inches north
and northeast of St. Louis...primarily across west central and parts
of southwest Illinois.  Will continue headlines as they are this
morning.  Stuck close to the cold side of guidance for temperatures
today as the cold Arctic high moves in behind the cold front.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 527 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

Arctic high builds overhead tonight into Friday.  Doesn`t look like
we`ll set any record lows Friday morning, however widespread
temperatures near or below zero can be expected from central and
northeast Missouri into west central Illinois with single digits
elsewhere.  With the cold start to the morning, it`s likely
temperatures will struggle to make the teens on Friday.  Southerly
flow develops Friday night into Saturday and while it should be
warmer, temperatures will still be well below normal.

Looks like an active weather pattern coming up for late Saturday
into next week.  The persistent ridge over the western CONUS/eastern
Pacific that we`ve been dealing with for the past several weeks is
breaking down and it looks like we`ll get into a southwest flow
regime by late Saturday and into Sunday.  While this means we will
most likely see warmer temperatures, it also looks like a much
wetter pattern than we`ve had recently.  Have several periods of
likely PoPs headed out into the medium range beginning late Saturday
continuing into Saturday night and Sunday in a warm advection
pattern.  Precipitation types are difficult to pin down at this time
with the receding Arctic airmass potentially causing a wintry mix.
Another bout of warm advection precip develops on Monday night and
continues into Tuesday.  Again, low level temperatures will likely
dictate what falls, but there may be more liquid rain than wintry
mix, especially into Tuesday with good southerly flow developing at
the surface.  Regardless, this will be a challenging forecast due to
the mixed precip types and inherent difficulty in forecasting
shallow layers in the medium range.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Reduced SN at COU as much of the precip across that region has
dissipated. SN at UIN shud gradually diminish thru the early
morning hours as the system pulls sewd. With cigs beginning to
rise, going TAF may hold on to SN too long. However, with sparse
RADAR coverage across this area, it is difficult to determine how
far SE some of the heavier bands stretch. Otherwise, winds will
remain nly with gusts to around 25 kts into the afternoon hrs.
Believe cigs will be slow to rise and going forecast may break up
clouds too quickly.

Specifics for KSTL/KSUS/KCPS: Believe SN will begin shortly before
sunrise. SN will gradually diminish thru the morning with cigs
slow to rise. Given how cold temps will be, can expect light SHSN
periods of flurries thru the day. Otherwise, winds will remain nly
with gusts to around 25 kts thru the afternoon hrs. Believe cigs
will be slow to rise and going forecast may break up clouds too
quickly.

Tilly

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     24   3  17   7 /  90  10   0   5
Quincy          14  -6  11   0 /  50   5   0   5
Columbia        18   0  16   7 /  40   5   0   5
Jefferson City  21   2  18   8 /  50   5   0   5
Salem           24   2  14   6 /  70  10   0   5
Farmington      24   4  18   7 /  60  10   0   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR Knox MO-
     Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR Adams IL-
     Brown IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 261123
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
523 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

...Update to Aviation for 12Z TAFS...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

After a brief respite from the cold weather, Arctic air has
returned with a vengeance behind a cold front that swept across
the area. Some very light snow or flurries and perhaps a brief
period of freezing drizzle was accompanying this intrusion of
Arctic air. A light dusting of snow of less than an inch is still
possible across central Missouri mainly from the Lake of the
Ozarks region into the eastern Ozarks.

Temperatures will continue to fall into the morning before
leveling off this afternoon. Afternoon temperatures will struggle
to reach 20 degrees. Lows tonight will tumble into the single
digits as the Arctic high builds southward. A steady northerly
wind tonight into early Friday will generate wind chills in the
single digits below zero and may approach 10 below.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Another very cold day is in store for Friday as the Arctic high
pressure system slides to the east. Highs again will struggle
again to climb above 20 degrees.

As been advertised an active weather pattern will develop this weekend
into early next week. The upper pattern will become more zonal as
an upper level trough takes shape out west. A series of disturbances
will eject eastward into the region Saturday and Sunday while a
frontal zone develops. Warm air advection pattern will evolve and
strengthen Saturday and Sunday which will bring gradual warming
initially above the boundary layer and eventually to the surface.

Expect precipitation primarily in the form of snow to develop from
west to east Saturday into Saturday evening. The snow will then
mix with or change to sleet and even some freezing rain later
Saturday night into early Sunday as the warm nose builds north. At
this time there is the potential for light accumulations of snow
and sleet along with minor ice accumulations. Current models prog
temperatures will climb above freezing across most if not all of
the area Sunday changing the precipitation over the rain and
drizzle.

Additional chances of precipitation will continue into early next
week as the upper level trough makes its way eastward. The extent
of warming and the resulting thermal profile remains in question.
However it appears that sufficient warming will take place to keep
most precipitation rain with an occasional wintry mix.

While the confidence level is high that we will see some wintry
weather this weekend there is considerable uncertainty on exact
precipitation types, amounts and timing of transitions. At this
time expect light accumulations of snow, sleet and possibly
freezing rain. This will likely impact travel by Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night and Sunday morning.

Please stay tuned to the latest forecast as we approach the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 520 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: A MVFR stratus deck is
currently over the region and will remain over the TAF sites into
this afternoon. Then the ceilings will lift late this afternoon
into the evening hours.

Gusty northwesterly winds will continue this morning through the
afternoon hours and will then weaken this evening. The strongest
winds will occur early this morning but again will remain gusty
through the afternoon today.

An area of light snow is pushing south across central MO and may
clip the KSGF site through the mid morning hours. This activity will
mainly be in the form of flurries with light if any accumulations.
The better chances for any snow should remain east and north of
the KJLN and

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise








000
FXUS63 KSGF 261123
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
523 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

...Update to Aviation for 12Z TAFS...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

After a brief respite from the cold weather, Arctic air has
returned with a vengeance behind a cold front that swept across
the area. Some very light snow or flurries and perhaps a brief
period of freezing drizzle was accompanying this intrusion of
Arctic air. A light dusting of snow of less than an inch is still
possible across central Missouri mainly from the Lake of the
Ozarks region into the eastern Ozarks.

Temperatures will continue to fall into the morning before
leveling off this afternoon. Afternoon temperatures will struggle
to reach 20 degrees. Lows tonight will tumble into the single
digits as the Arctic high builds southward. A steady northerly
wind tonight into early Friday will generate wind chills in the
single digits below zero and may approach 10 below.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Another very cold day is in store for Friday as the Arctic high
pressure system slides to the east. Highs again will struggle
again to climb above 20 degrees.

As been advertised an active weather pattern will develop this weekend
into early next week. The upper pattern will become more zonal as
an upper level trough takes shape out west. A series of disturbances
will eject eastward into the region Saturday and Sunday while a
frontal zone develops. Warm air advection pattern will evolve and
strengthen Saturday and Sunday which will bring gradual warming
initially above the boundary layer and eventually to the surface.

Expect precipitation primarily in the form of snow to develop from
west to east Saturday into Saturday evening. The snow will then
mix with or change to sleet and even some freezing rain later
Saturday night into early Sunday as the warm nose builds north. At
this time there is the potential for light accumulations of snow
and sleet along with minor ice accumulations. Current models prog
temperatures will climb above freezing across most if not all of
the area Sunday changing the precipitation over the rain and
drizzle.

Additional chances of precipitation will continue into early next
week as the upper level trough makes its way eastward. The extent
of warming and the resulting thermal profile remains in question.
However it appears that sufficient warming will take place to keep
most precipitation rain with an occasional wintry mix.

While the confidence level is high that we will see some wintry
weather this weekend there is considerable uncertainty on exact
precipitation types, amounts and timing of transitions. At this
time expect light accumulations of snow, sleet and possibly
freezing rain. This will likely impact travel by Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night and Sunday morning.

Please stay tuned to the latest forecast as we approach the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 520 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: A MVFR stratus deck is
currently over the region and will remain over the TAF sites into
this afternoon. Then the ceilings will lift late this afternoon
into the evening hours.

Gusty northwesterly winds will continue this morning through the
afternoon hours and will then weaken this evening. The strongest
winds will occur early this morning but again will remain gusty
through the afternoon today.

An area of light snow is pushing south across central MO and may
clip the KSGF site through the mid morning hours. This activity will
mainly be in the form of flurries with light if any accumulations.
The better chances for any snow should remain east and north of
the KJLN and

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KEAX 261059
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
459 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Short Range (Today through Friday night):

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for light
snow across the eastern CWA early this morning and the very cold
temperatures and wind chill values through Friday.

The cold front that brought rain and light snow to the area has
pushed well to the south. Strong cold air advection will continue
today bringing very cold and dry air to the area today. Wind chill
values this morning will range from near zero across the
southeastern CWA to 15 below zero across the northwestern CWA. With
the strong CAA continuing through the day today temperatures will
only achieve the teens to lower 20s. Factoring in the strong
northerly winds and wind chill values will be in the single digits
above and below zero across the CWA during the daytime hours.
Tonight, a 1042mb Arctic high will build directly over the area.
Good radiational cooling will allow temperatures to plummet into the
single digit above zero to the single digits below zero. Although
winds will be light, wind chill values will range from 5 to 15
degrees below zero. The Arctic high will remain in control over the
area through most of the day on Friday keeping highs in the teens to
lower 20s. Friday night, winds will pick up from the southeast and
clouds will be on the increase out ahead of this weekends storm
system. Lows will range from the single digits to mid teens.

Medium Range (Saturday through Sunday night):

This weekends weather maker is expected to move onshore in the
Pacific Northwest tonight. It will continue to dig south across the
western CONUS Friday through Saturday morning. Flow across the
eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS will be quasi-zonal. Several shortwaves
will eject out from the western CONUS trough and will move into the
central Plains by Saturday morning. Precipitation will begin to
overspread the area from west to east Saturday afternoon and
temperatures and model soundings support all snow. Snow is then
expected through persist through Saturday night and into Sunday.
Models are consistent in producing 4 to 8 inches of snow and have
shown run to run consistency as well. Providing no big deviations in
model runs, a winter weather watch or high-end winter advisory will
have to be considered in the next 24 hours. Sunday night, model
soundings show that we begin to lose moisture in the snow growth
zone and sleet may become the predominant p-type.

Long Range (Monday through Wednesday):

This period continues to look active as shortwaves continue to eject
out from the aforementioned western CONUS trough which by Monday
will have dug into the southwestern CONUS. In response to the
digging trough out west, weak upper ridging will begin to develop
over the region. This will help temperatures warm into the 30s to
near 40 on Monday. The next shortwave will reach the area on Monday.
With surface temperatures warming well above freezing across the
southern CWA and model soundings indicating a modest warm nose,
p-type will be an issue on Monday and Monday night. Current thinking
is that most of the CWA will see a wintry mix perhaps changing over
to all rain during the afternoon except across the extreme northern
CWA where p-type at this time looks to remain snow and sleet. Models
on Tuesday and Wednesday disagree on how quickly the main upper
trough over the southwestern CONUS will push into the Plains
however, what is evident is that precipitation will be rain until
the upper level trough force an associated cold front through the
area at which time light snow will again be possible on the back
side. As such, have rain in the forecast for Tuesday with rain
changing over to snow Tuesday night and light snow possible on
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 459 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MVFR cigs have push south and east of the terminals this morning
however sct cigs btn 2-3kft will be possible thru the morning hours.
Otrw...expect mostly clr skies thru the remainder of the TAF pd.
Strong northerly winds bkn 15-20kts with gusts to 25kts will be the
rule for today. Winds will begin to subside this evening diminishing
to 5-10kts after midnight while remaining out of the north.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 261059
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
459 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Short Range (Today through Friday night):

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for light
snow across the eastern CWA early this morning and the very cold
temperatures and wind chill values through Friday.

The cold front that brought rain and light snow to the area has
pushed well to the south. Strong cold air advection will continue
today bringing very cold and dry air to the area today. Wind chill
values this morning will range from near zero across the
southeastern CWA to 15 below zero across the northwestern CWA. With
the strong CAA continuing through the day today temperatures will
only achieve the teens to lower 20s. Factoring in the strong
northerly winds and wind chill values will be in the single digits
above and below zero across the CWA during the daytime hours.
Tonight, a 1042mb Arctic high will build directly over the area.
Good radiational cooling will allow temperatures to plummet into the
single digit above zero to the single digits below zero. Although
winds will be light, wind chill values will range from 5 to 15
degrees below zero. The Arctic high will remain in control over the
area through most of the day on Friday keeping highs in the teens to
lower 20s. Friday night, winds will pick up from the southeast and
clouds will be on the increase out ahead of this weekends storm
system. Lows will range from the single digits to mid teens.

Medium Range (Saturday through Sunday night):

This weekends weather maker is expected to move onshore in the
Pacific Northwest tonight. It will continue to dig south across the
western CONUS Friday through Saturday morning. Flow across the
eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS will be quasi-zonal. Several shortwaves
will eject out from the western CONUS trough and will move into the
central Plains by Saturday morning. Precipitation will begin to
overspread the area from west to east Saturday afternoon and
temperatures and model soundings support all snow. Snow is then
expected through persist through Saturday night and into Sunday.
Models are consistent in producing 4 to 8 inches of snow and have
shown run to run consistency as well. Providing no big deviations in
model runs, a winter weather watch or high-end winter advisory will
have to be considered in the next 24 hours. Sunday night, model
soundings show that we begin to lose moisture in the snow growth
zone and sleet may become the predominant p-type.

Long Range (Monday through Wednesday):

This period continues to look active as shortwaves continue to eject
out from the aforementioned western CONUS trough which by Monday
will have dug into the southwestern CONUS. In response to the
digging trough out west, weak upper ridging will begin to develop
over the region. This will help temperatures warm into the 30s to
near 40 on Monday. The next shortwave will reach the area on Monday.
With surface temperatures warming well above freezing across the
southern CWA and model soundings indicating a modest warm nose,
p-type will be an issue on Monday and Monday night. Current thinking
is that most of the CWA will see a wintry mix perhaps changing over
to all rain during the afternoon except across the extreme northern
CWA where p-type at this time looks to remain snow and sleet. Models
on Tuesday and Wednesday disagree on how quickly the main upper
trough over the southwestern CONUS will push into the Plains
however, what is evident is that precipitation will be rain until
the upper level trough force an associated cold front through the
area at which time light snow will again be possible on the back
side. As such, have rain in the forecast for Tuesday with rain
changing over to snow Tuesday night and light snow possible on
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 459 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MVFR cigs have push south and east of the terminals this morning
however sct cigs btn 2-3kft will be possible thru the morning hours.
Otrw...expect mostly clr skies thru the remainder of the TAF pd.
Strong northerly winds bkn 15-20kts with gusts to 25kts will be the
rule for today. Winds will begin to subside this evening diminishing
to 5-10kts after midnight while remaining out of the north.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 261059
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
459 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Short Range (Today through Friday night):

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for light
snow across the eastern CWA early this morning and the very cold
temperatures and wind chill values through Friday.

The cold front that brought rain and light snow to the area has
pushed well to the south. Strong cold air advection will continue
today bringing very cold and dry air to the area today. Wind chill
values this morning will range from near zero across the
southeastern CWA to 15 below zero across the northwestern CWA. With
the strong CAA continuing through the day today temperatures will
only achieve the teens to lower 20s. Factoring in the strong
northerly winds and wind chill values will be in the single digits
above and below zero across the CWA during the daytime hours.
Tonight, a 1042mb Arctic high will build directly over the area.
Good radiational cooling will allow temperatures to plummet into the
single digit above zero to the single digits below zero. Although
winds will be light, wind chill values will range from 5 to 15
degrees below zero. The Arctic high will remain in control over the
area through most of the day on Friday keeping highs in the teens to
lower 20s. Friday night, winds will pick up from the southeast and
clouds will be on the increase out ahead of this weekends storm
system. Lows will range from the single digits to mid teens.

Medium Range (Saturday through Sunday night):

This weekends weather maker is expected to move onshore in the
Pacific Northwest tonight. It will continue to dig south across the
western CONUS Friday through Saturday morning. Flow across the
eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS will be quasi-zonal. Several shortwaves
will eject out from the western CONUS trough and will move into the
central Plains by Saturday morning. Precipitation will begin to
overspread the area from west to east Saturday afternoon and
temperatures and model soundings support all snow. Snow is then
expected through persist through Saturday night and into Sunday.
Models are consistent in producing 4 to 8 inches of snow and have
shown run to run consistency as well. Providing no big deviations in
model runs, a winter weather watch or high-end winter advisory will
have to be considered in the next 24 hours. Sunday night, model
soundings show that we begin to lose moisture in the snow growth
zone and sleet may become the predominant p-type.

Long Range (Monday through Wednesday):

This period continues to look active as shortwaves continue to eject
out from the aforementioned western CONUS trough which by Monday
will have dug into the southwestern CONUS. In response to the
digging trough out west, weak upper ridging will begin to develop
over the region. This will help temperatures warm into the 30s to
near 40 on Monday. The next shortwave will reach the area on Monday.
With surface temperatures warming well above freezing across the
southern CWA and model soundings indicating a modest warm nose,
p-type will be an issue on Monday and Monday night. Current thinking
is that most of the CWA will see a wintry mix perhaps changing over
to all rain during the afternoon except across the extreme northern
CWA where p-type at this time looks to remain snow and sleet. Models
on Tuesday and Wednesday disagree on how quickly the main upper
trough over the southwestern CONUS will push into the Plains
however, what is evident is that precipitation will be rain until
the upper level trough force an associated cold front through the
area at which time light snow will again be possible on the back
side. As such, have rain in the forecast for Tuesday with rain
changing over to snow Tuesday night and light snow possible on
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 459 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MVFR cigs have push south and east of the terminals this morning
however sct cigs btn 2-3kft will be possible thru the morning hours.
Otrw...expect mostly clr skies thru the remainder of the TAF pd.
Strong northerly winds bkn 15-20kts with gusts to 25kts will be the
rule for today. Winds will begin to subside this evening diminishing
to 5-10kts after midnight while remaining out of the north.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 261059
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
459 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Short Range (Today through Friday night):

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for light
snow across the eastern CWA early this morning and the very cold
temperatures and wind chill values through Friday.

The cold front that brought rain and light snow to the area has
pushed well to the south. Strong cold air advection will continue
today bringing very cold and dry air to the area today. Wind chill
values this morning will range from near zero across the
southeastern CWA to 15 below zero across the northwestern CWA. With
the strong CAA continuing through the day today temperatures will
only achieve the teens to lower 20s. Factoring in the strong
northerly winds and wind chill values will be in the single digits
above and below zero across the CWA during the daytime hours.
Tonight, a 1042mb Arctic high will build directly over the area.
Good radiational cooling will allow temperatures to plummet into the
single digit above zero to the single digits below zero. Although
winds will be light, wind chill values will range from 5 to 15
degrees below zero. The Arctic high will remain in control over the
area through most of the day on Friday keeping highs in the teens to
lower 20s. Friday night, winds will pick up from the southeast and
clouds will be on the increase out ahead of this weekends storm
system. Lows will range from the single digits to mid teens.

Medium Range (Saturday through Sunday night):

This weekends weather maker is expected to move onshore in the
Pacific Northwest tonight. It will continue to dig south across the
western CONUS Friday through Saturday morning. Flow across the
eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS will be quasi-zonal. Several shortwaves
will eject out from the western CONUS trough and will move into the
central Plains by Saturday morning. Precipitation will begin to
overspread the area from west to east Saturday afternoon and
temperatures and model soundings support all snow. Snow is then
expected through persist through Saturday night and into Sunday.
Models are consistent in producing 4 to 8 inches of snow and have
shown run to run consistency as well. Providing no big deviations in
model runs, a winter weather watch or high-end winter advisory will
have to be considered in the next 24 hours. Sunday night, model
soundings show that we begin to lose moisture in the snow growth
zone and sleet may become the predominant p-type.

Long Range (Monday through Wednesday):

This period continues to look active as shortwaves continue to eject
out from the aforementioned western CONUS trough which by Monday
will have dug into the southwestern CONUS. In response to the
digging trough out west, weak upper ridging will begin to develop
over the region. This will help temperatures warm into the 30s to
near 40 on Monday. The next shortwave will reach the area on Monday.
With surface temperatures warming well above freezing across the
southern CWA and model soundings indicating a modest warm nose,
p-type will be an issue on Monday and Monday night. Current thinking
is that most of the CWA will see a wintry mix perhaps changing over
to all rain during the afternoon except across the extreme northern
CWA where p-type at this time looks to remain snow and sleet. Models
on Tuesday and Wednesday disagree on how quickly the main upper
trough over the southwestern CONUS will push into the Plains
however, what is evident is that precipitation will be rain until
the upper level trough force an associated cold front through the
area at which time light snow will again be possible on the back
side. As such, have rain in the forecast for Tuesday with rain
changing over to snow Tuesday night and light snow possible on
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 459 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MVFR cigs have push south and east of the terminals this morning
however sct cigs btn 2-3kft will be possible thru the morning hours.
Otrw...expect mostly clr skies thru the remainder of the TAF pd.
Strong northerly winds bkn 15-20kts with gusts to 25kts will be the
rule for today. Winds will begin to subside this evening diminishing
to 5-10kts after midnight while remaining out of the north.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 261059
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
459 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Short Range (Today through Friday night):

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for light
snow across the eastern CWA early this morning and the very cold
temperatures and wind chill values through Friday.

The cold front that brought rain and light snow to the area has
pushed well to the south. Strong cold air advection will continue
today bringing very cold and dry air to the area today. Wind chill
values this morning will range from near zero across the
southeastern CWA to 15 below zero across the northwestern CWA. With
the strong CAA continuing through the day today temperatures will
only achieve the teens to lower 20s. Factoring in the strong
northerly winds and wind chill values will be in the single digits
above and below zero across the CWA during the daytime hours.
Tonight, a 1042mb Arctic high will build directly over the area.
Good radiational cooling will allow temperatures to plummet into the
single digit above zero to the single digits below zero. Although
winds will be light, wind chill values will range from 5 to 15
degrees below zero. The Arctic high will remain in control over the
area through most of the day on Friday keeping highs in the teens to
lower 20s. Friday night, winds will pick up from the southeast and
clouds will be on the increase out ahead of this weekends storm
system. Lows will range from the single digits to mid teens.

Medium Range (Saturday through Sunday night):

This weekends weather maker is expected to move onshore in the
Pacific Northwest tonight. It will continue to dig south across the
western CONUS Friday through Saturday morning. Flow across the
eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS will be quasi-zonal. Several shortwaves
will eject out from the western CONUS trough and will move into the
central Plains by Saturday morning. Precipitation will begin to
overspread the area from west to east Saturday afternoon and
temperatures and model soundings support all snow. Snow is then
expected through persist through Saturday night and into Sunday.
Models are consistent in producing 4 to 8 inches of snow and have
shown run to run consistency as well. Providing no big deviations in
model runs, a winter weather watch or high-end winter advisory will
have to be considered in the next 24 hours. Sunday night, model
soundings show that we begin to lose moisture in the snow growth
zone and sleet may become the predominant p-type.

Long Range (Monday through Wednesday):

This period continues to look active as shortwaves continue to eject
out from the aforementioned western CONUS trough which by Monday
will have dug into the southwestern CONUS. In response to the
digging trough out west, weak upper ridging will begin to develop
over the region. This will help temperatures warm into the 30s to
near 40 on Monday. The next shortwave will reach the area on Monday.
With surface temperatures warming well above freezing across the
southern CWA and model soundings indicating a modest warm nose,
p-type will be an issue on Monday and Monday night. Current thinking
is that most of the CWA will see a wintry mix perhaps changing over
to all rain during the afternoon except across the extreme northern
CWA where p-type at this time looks to remain snow and sleet. Models
on Tuesday and Wednesday disagree on how quickly the main upper
trough over the southwestern CONUS will push into the Plains
however, what is evident is that precipitation will be rain until
the upper level trough force an associated cold front through the
area at which time light snow will again be possible on the back
side. As such, have rain in the forecast for Tuesday with rain
changing over to snow Tuesday night and light snow possible on
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 459 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MVFR cigs have push south and east of the terminals this morning
however sct cigs btn 2-3kft will be possible thru the morning hours.
Otrw...expect mostly clr skies thru the remainder of the TAF pd.
Strong northerly winds bkn 15-20kts with gusts to 25kts will be the
rule for today. Winds will begin to subside this evening diminishing
to 5-10kts after midnight while remaining out of the north.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 261059
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
459 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Short Range (Today through Friday night):

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for light
snow across the eastern CWA early this morning and the very cold
temperatures and wind chill values through Friday.

The cold front that brought rain and light snow to the area has
pushed well to the south. Strong cold air advection will continue
today bringing very cold and dry air to the area today. Wind chill
values this morning will range from near zero across the
southeastern CWA to 15 below zero across the northwestern CWA. With
the strong CAA continuing through the day today temperatures will
only achieve the teens to lower 20s. Factoring in the strong
northerly winds and wind chill values will be in the single digits
above and below zero across the CWA during the daytime hours.
Tonight, a 1042mb Arctic high will build directly over the area.
Good radiational cooling will allow temperatures to plummet into the
single digit above zero to the single digits below zero. Although
winds will be light, wind chill values will range from 5 to 15
degrees below zero. The Arctic high will remain in control over the
area through most of the day on Friday keeping highs in the teens to
lower 20s. Friday night, winds will pick up from the southeast and
clouds will be on the increase out ahead of this weekends storm
system. Lows will range from the single digits to mid teens.

Medium Range (Saturday through Sunday night):

This weekends weather maker is expected to move onshore in the
Pacific Northwest tonight. It will continue to dig south across the
western CONUS Friday through Saturday morning. Flow across the
eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS will be quasi-zonal. Several shortwaves
will eject out from the western CONUS trough and will move into the
central Plains by Saturday morning. Precipitation will begin to
overspread the area from west to east Saturday afternoon and
temperatures and model soundings support all snow. Snow is then
expected through persist through Saturday night and into Sunday.
Models are consistent in producing 4 to 8 inches of snow and have
shown run to run consistency as well. Providing no big deviations in
model runs, a winter weather watch or high-end winter advisory will
have to be considered in the next 24 hours. Sunday night, model
soundings show that we begin to lose moisture in the snow growth
zone and sleet may become the predominant p-type.

Long Range (Monday through Wednesday):

This period continues to look active as shortwaves continue to eject
out from the aforementioned western CONUS trough which by Monday
will have dug into the southwestern CONUS. In response to the
digging trough out west, weak upper ridging will begin to develop
over the region. This will help temperatures warm into the 30s to
near 40 on Monday. The next shortwave will reach the area on Monday.
With surface temperatures warming well above freezing across the
southern CWA and model soundings indicating a modest warm nose,
p-type will be an issue on Monday and Monday night. Current thinking
is that most of the CWA will see a wintry mix perhaps changing over
to all rain during the afternoon except across the extreme northern
CWA where p-type at this time looks to remain snow and sleet. Models
on Tuesday and Wednesday disagree on how quickly the main upper
trough over the southwestern CONUS will push into the Plains
however, what is evident is that precipitation will be rain until
the upper level trough force an associated cold front through the
area at which time light snow will again be possible on the back
side. As such, have rain in the forecast for Tuesday with rain
changing over to snow Tuesday night and light snow possible on
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 459 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MVFR cigs have push south and east of the terminals this morning
however sct cigs btn 2-3kft will be possible thru the morning hours.
Otrw...expect mostly clr skies thru the remainder of the TAF pd.
Strong northerly winds bkn 15-20kts with gusts to 25kts will be the
rule for today. Winds will begin to subside this evening diminishing
to 5-10kts after midnight while remaining out of the north.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73






000
FXUS63 KSGF 260953
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
353 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

...Much Colder Today - Wintry Weather This Weekend...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

After a brief respite from the cold weather, Arctic air has
returned with a vengeance behind a cold front that swept across
the area. Some very light snow or flurries and perhaps a brief
period of freezing drizzle was accompanying this intrusion of
Arctic air. A light dusting of snow of less than an inch is still
possible across central Missouri mainly from the Lake of the
Ozarks region into the eastern Ozarks.

Temperatures will continue to fall into the morning before
leveling off this afternoon. Afternoon temperatures will struggle
to reach 20 degrees. Lows tonight will tumble into the single
digits as the Arctic high builds southward. A steady northerly
wind tonight into early Friday will generate wind chills in the
single digits below zero and may approach 10 below.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Another very cold day is in store for Friday as the Arctic high
pressure system slides to the east. Highs again will struggle
again to climb above 20 degrees.

As been advertised an active weather pattern will develop this weekend
into early next week. The upper pattern will become more zonal as
an upper level trough takes shape out west. A series of disturbances
will eject eastward into the region Saturday and Sunday while a
frontal zone develops. Warm air advection pattern will evolve and
strengthen Saturday and Sunday which will bring gradual warming
initially above the boundary layer and eventually to the surface.

Expect precipitation primarily in the form of snow to develop from
west to east Saturday into Saturday evening. The snow will then
mix with or change to sleet and even some freezing rain later
Saturday night into early Sunday as the warm nose builds north. At
this time there is the potential for light accumulations of snow
and sleet along with minor ice accumulations. Current models prog
temperatures will climb above freezing across most if not all of
the area Sunday changing the precipitation over the rain and
drizzle.

Additional chances of precipitation will continue into early next
week as the upper level trough makes its way eastward. The extent
of warming and the resulting thermal profile remains in question.
However it appears that sufficient warming will take place to keep
most precipitation rain with an occasional wintry mix.

While the confidence level is high that we will see some wintry
weather this weekend there is considerable uncertainty on exact
precipitation types, amounts and timing of transitions. At this
time expect light accumulations of snow, sleet and possibly
freezing rain. This will likely impact travel by Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night and Sunday morning.

Please stay tuned to the latest forecast as we approach the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong cold front is moving through
the area which will veer gusty winds to the northwest. MVFR
ceilings, possibly briefly IFR, will be common behind the front. A
brief period of light snow or flurries is also expected early in
the taf period. Ceilings are expected to scatter out late in the
taf period with diminishing winds.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 260953
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
353 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

...Much Colder Today - Wintry Weather This Weekend...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

After a brief respite from the cold weather, Arctic air has
returned with a vengeance behind a cold front that swept across
the area. Some very light snow or flurries and perhaps a brief
period of freezing drizzle was accompanying this intrusion of
Arctic air. A light dusting of snow of less than an inch is still
possible across central Missouri mainly from the Lake of the
Ozarks region into the eastern Ozarks.

Temperatures will continue to fall into the morning before
leveling off this afternoon. Afternoon temperatures will struggle
to reach 20 degrees. Lows tonight will tumble into the single
digits as the Arctic high builds southward. A steady northerly
wind tonight into early Friday will generate wind chills in the
single digits below zero and may approach 10 below.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Another very cold day is in store for Friday as the Arctic high
pressure system slides to the east. Highs again will struggle
again to climb above 20 degrees.

As been advertised an active weather pattern will develop this weekend
into early next week. The upper pattern will become more zonal as
an upper level trough takes shape out west. A series of disturbances
will eject eastward into the region Saturday and Sunday while a
frontal zone develops. Warm air advection pattern will evolve and
strengthen Saturday and Sunday which will bring gradual warming
initially above the boundary layer and eventually to the surface.

Expect precipitation primarily in the form of snow to develop from
west to east Saturday into Saturday evening. The snow will then
mix with or change to sleet and even some freezing rain later
Saturday night into early Sunday as the warm nose builds north. At
this time there is the potential for light accumulations of snow
and sleet along with minor ice accumulations. Current models prog
temperatures will climb above freezing across most if not all of
the area Sunday changing the precipitation over the rain and
drizzle.

Additional chances of precipitation will continue into early next
week as the upper level trough makes its way eastward. The extent
of warming and the resulting thermal profile remains in question.
However it appears that sufficient warming will take place to keep
most precipitation rain with an occasional wintry mix.

While the confidence level is high that we will see some wintry
weather this weekend there is considerable uncertainty on exact
precipitation types, amounts and timing of transitions. At this
time expect light accumulations of snow, sleet and possibly
freezing rain. This will likely impact travel by Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night and Sunday morning.

Please stay tuned to the latest forecast as we approach the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong cold front is moving through
the area which will veer gusty winds to the northwest. MVFR
ceilings, possibly briefly IFR, will be common behind the front. A
brief period of light snow or flurries is also expected early in
the taf period. Ceilings are expected to scatter out late in the
taf period with diminishing winds.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KEAX 260946
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
346 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Short Range (Today through Friday night):

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for light
snow across the eastern CWA early this morning and the very cold
temperatures and wind chill values through Friday.

The cold front that brought rain and light snow to the area has
pushed well to the south. Strong cold air advection will continue
today bringing very cold and dry air to the area today. Wind chill
values this morning will range from near zero across the
southeastern CWA to 15 below zero across the northwestern CWA. With
the strong CAA continuing through the day today temperatures will
only achieve the teens to lower 20s. Factoring in the strong
northerly winds and wind chill values will be in the single digits
above and below zero across the CWA during the daytime hours.
Tonight, a 1042mb Arctic high will build directly over the area.
Good radiational cooling will allow temperatures to plummet into the
single digit above zero to the single digits below zero. Although
winds will be light, wind chill values will range from 5 to 15
degrees below zero. The Arctic high will remain in control over the
area through most of the day on Friday keeping highs in the teens to
lower 20s. Friday night, winds will pick up from the southeast and
clouds will be on the increase out ahead of this weekends storm
system. Lows will range from the single digits to mid teens.

Medium Range (Saturday through Sunday night):

This weekends weather maker is expected to move onshore in the
Pacific Northwest tonight. It will continue to dig south across the
western CONUS Friday through Saturday morning. Flow across the
eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS will be quasi-zonal. Several shortwaves
will eject out from the western CONUS trough and will move into the
central Plains by Saturday morning. Precipitation will begin to
overspread the area from west to east Saturday afternoon and
temperatures and model soundings support all snow. Snow is then
expected through persist through Saturday night and into Sunday.
Models are consistent in producing 4 to 8 inches of snow and have
shown run to run consistency as well. Providing no big deviations in
model runs, a winter weather watch or high-end winter advisory will
have to be considered in the next 24 hours. Sunday night, model
soundings show that we begin to lose moisture in the snow growth
zone and sleet may become the predominant p-type.

Long Range (Monday through Wednesday):

This period continues to look active as shortwaves continue to eject
out from the aforementioned western CONUS trough which by Monday
will have dug into the southwestern CONUS. In response to the
digging trough out west, weak upper ridging will begin to develop
over the region. This will help temperatures warm into the 30s to
near 40 on Monday. The next shortwave will reach the area on Monday.
With surface temperatures warming well above freezing across the
southern CWA and model soundings indicating a modest warm nose,
p-type will be an issue on Monday and Monday night. Current thinking
is that most of the CWA will see a wintry mix perhaps changing over
to all rain during the afternoon except across the extreme northern
CWA where p-type at this time looks to remain snow and sleet. Models
on Tuesday and Wednesday disagree on how quickly the main upper
trough over the southwestern CONUS will push into the Plains
however, what is evident is that precipitation will be rain until
the upper level trough force an associated cold front through the
area at which time light snow will again be possible on the back
side. As such, have rain in the forecast for Tuesday with rain
changing over to snow Tuesday night and light snow possible on
Wednesday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Main weather concern through Thursday afternoon will be the strong
and gusty northerly winds. While the pressure gradient will gradually
weaken through tomorrow the expected diurnal mixing should maintain
the brisk north winds until sunrise.

Satellite imagery shows a large wedge of general clearing of the
MVFR cigs across eastern NE to central IA south through northwest MO
and eastern KS. However, this is deceiving as streamers of MVFR cigs
and snow showers continue to reform within this clear wedge. This
will likely lead to skies vacillating between FEW and BKN/OVC for the
next few hours before a thicker area of MVFR cigs over central NE
slides southeast and into western MO. MVFR cigs should finally
scatter out by mid morning if not sooner.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KEAX 260946
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
346 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Short Range (Today through Friday night):

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for light
snow across the eastern CWA early this morning and the very cold
temperatures and wind chill values through Friday.

The cold front that brought rain and light snow to the area has
pushed well to the south. Strong cold air advection will continue
today bringing very cold and dry air to the area today. Wind chill
values this morning will range from near zero across the
southeastern CWA to 15 below zero across the northwestern CWA. With
the strong CAA continuing through the day today temperatures will
only achieve the teens to lower 20s. Factoring in the strong
northerly winds and wind chill values will be in the single digits
above and below zero across the CWA during the daytime hours.
Tonight, a 1042mb Arctic high will build directly over the area.
Good radiational cooling will allow temperatures to plummet into the
single digit above zero to the single digits below zero. Although
winds will be light, wind chill values will range from 5 to 15
degrees below zero. The Arctic high will remain in control over the
area through most of the day on Friday keeping highs in the teens to
lower 20s. Friday night, winds will pick up from the southeast and
clouds will be on the increase out ahead of this weekends storm
system. Lows will range from the single digits to mid teens.

Medium Range (Saturday through Sunday night):

This weekends weather maker is expected to move onshore in the
Pacific Northwest tonight. It will continue to dig south across the
western CONUS Friday through Saturday morning. Flow across the
eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS will be quasi-zonal. Several shortwaves
will eject out from the western CONUS trough and will move into the
central Plains by Saturday morning. Precipitation will begin to
overspread the area from west to east Saturday afternoon and
temperatures and model soundings support all snow. Snow is then
expected through persist through Saturday night and into Sunday.
Models are consistent in producing 4 to 8 inches of snow and have
shown run to run consistency as well. Providing no big deviations in
model runs, a winter weather watch or high-end winter advisory will
have to be considered in the next 24 hours. Sunday night, model
soundings show that we begin to lose moisture in the snow growth
zone and sleet may become the predominant p-type.

Long Range (Monday through Wednesday):

This period continues to look active as shortwaves continue to eject
out from the aforementioned western CONUS trough which by Monday
will have dug into the southwestern CONUS. In response to the
digging trough out west, weak upper ridging will begin to develop
over the region. This will help temperatures warm into the 30s to
near 40 on Monday. The next shortwave will reach the area on Monday.
With surface temperatures warming well above freezing across the
southern CWA and model soundings indicating a modest warm nose,
p-type will be an issue on Monday and Monday night. Current thinking
is that most of the CWA will see a wintry mix perhaps changing over
to all rain during the afternoon except across the extreme northern
CWA where p-type at this time looks to remain snow and sleet. Models
on Tuesday and Wednesday disagree on how quickly the main upper
trough over the southwestern CONUS will push into the Plains
however, what is evident is that precipitation will be rain until
the upper level trough force an associated cold front through the
area at which time light snow will again be possible on the back
side. As such, have rain in the forecast for Tuesday with rain
changing over to snow Tuesday night and light snow possible on
Wednesday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Main weather concern through Thursday afternoon will be the strong
and gusty northerly winds. While the pressure gradient will gradually
weaken through tomorrow the expected diurnal mixing should maintain
the brisk north winds until sunrise.

Satellite imagery shows a large wedge of general clearing of the
MVFR cigs across eastern NE to central IA south through northwest MO
and eastern KS. However, this is deceiving as streamers of MVFR cigs
and snow showers continue to reform within this clear wedge. This
will likely lead to skies vacillating between FEW and BKN/OVC for the
next few hours before a thicker area of MVFR cigs over central NE
slides southeast and into western MO. MVFR cigs should finally
scatter out by mid morning if not sooner.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...MJ






000
FXUS63 KLSX 260909
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
309 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 308 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

Shortwave digging over northeast Missouri and associated cold front
now moving through the I-44 corridor will continue to produce light
snow through the first part of the morning.  Have also had a few
reports of freezing drizzle back in central Missouri, but not sure
how long this will last so have opted not to mention in the forecast
at this time.  Will continue to monitor and update if freezing
drizzle ends up persisting.  Both NAM and GFS show some decent low
level frontogenetical forcing back on the cold side of the front
before 12Z this morning...but the forcing quickly diminishes between
12Z and 15Z.  Mesoscale models do keep light snow going for a few
hours this morning, but really back off the precip by 15Z like the
operational models.  Both NSSL and NCEP 4km WRF models pop up what
look like instability snow showers this afternoon, so have kept
chance PoPs going into the afternoon primarily along and east of the
Mississippi River.  Total accumulations of 1 inch or less look
likely along and south of the I-70 corridor with 1-3 inches north
and northeast of St. Louis...primarily across west central and parts
of southwest Illinois.  Will continue headlines as they are this
morning.  Stuck close to the cold side of guidance for temperatures
today as the cold Arctic high moves in behind the cold front.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

The clipper system will be followed by an Arctic high pressure
center which builds across the central CONUS on Thursday/Thursday
night. The coldest temps on Thursday night/early Friday morning
should occur across the northwestern CWA due to proximity to the
ridge axis along with the fresh snow cover. The high pressure
center then shifts eastward on Friday and Saturday. Return flow
begins on Saturday around the back side of the high pressure
center.

Kanofsky

Atmospheric responses to a large low pressure system over the
southwestern CONUS and a trough over the northern plains (strong
WAA and frontogenesis) could bring a wintry mix of all ptypes to
the area on Saturday night and then again for Monday through
Tuesday. but confidence in ptypes, timing, duration, amounts,
transitions, and PoPs remains very low. Kept likely PoPs on days 6
& 7 for collaboration with surrounding offices. Anyone who has
travel plans or other weather-dependent plans early next week are
advised to continue monitoring the forecast over the next few
days.

42

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Reduced SN at COU as much of the precip across that region has
dissipated. SN at UIN shud gradually diminish thru the early
morning hours as the system pulls sewd. With cigs beginning to
rise, going TAF may hold on to SN too long. However, with sparse
RADAR coverage across this area, it is difficult to determine how
far SE some of the heavier bands stretch. Otherwise, winds will
remain nly with gusts to around 25 kts into the afternoon hrs.
Believe cigs will be slow to rise and going forecast may break up
clouds too quickly.

Specifics for KSTL/KSUS/KCPS: Believe SN will begin shortly before
sunrise. SN will gradually diminish thru the morning with cigs
slow to rise. Given how cold temps will be, can expect light SHSN
periods of flurries thru the day. Otherwise, winds will remain nly
with gusts to around 25 kts thru the afternoon hrs. Believe cigs
will be slow to rise and going forecast may break up clouds too
quickly.

Tilly

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     24   3  17   7 /  90  10   0   5
Quincy          14  -6  11   0 /  50   5   0   5
Columbia        18   0  16   7 /  40   5   0   5
Jefferson City  21   2  18   8 /  50   5   0   5
Salem           24   2  14   6 /  70  10   0   5
Farmington      24   4  18   7 /  60  10   0   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR Knox MO-
     Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR Adams IL-
     Brown IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 260909
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
309 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 308 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

Shortwave digging over northeast Missouri and associated cold front
now moving through the I-44 corridor will continue to produce light
snow through the first part of the morning.  Have also had a few
reports of freezing drizzle back in central Missouri, but not sure
how long this will last so have opted not to mention in the forecast
at this time.  Will continue to monitor and update if freezing
drizzle ends up persisting.  Both NAM and GFS show some decent low
level frontogenetical forcing back on the cold side of the front
before 12Z this morning...but the forcing quickly diminishes between
12Z and 15Z.  Mesoscale models do keep light snow going for a few
hours this morning, but really back off the precip by 15Z like the
operational models.  Both NSSL and NCEP 4km WRF models pop up what
look like instability snow showers this afternoon, so have kept
chance PoPs going into the afternoon primarily along and east of the
Mississippi River.  Total accumulations of 1 inch or less look
likely along and south of the I-70 corridor with 1-3 inches north
and northeast of St. Louis...primarily across west central and parts
of southwest Illinois.  Will continue headlines as they are this
morning.  Stuck close to the cold side of guidance for temperatures
today as the cold Arctic high moves in behind the cold front.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

The clipper system will be followed by an Arctic high pressure
center which builds across the central CONUS on Thursday/Thursday
night. The coldest temps on Thursday night/early Friday morning
should occur across the northwestern CWA due to proximity to the
ridge axis along with the fresh snow cover. The high pressure
center then shifts eastward on Friday and Saturday. Return flow
begins on Saturday around the back side of the high pressure
center.

Kanofsky

Atmospheric responses to a large low pressure system over the
southwestern CONUS and a trough over the northern plains (strong
WAA and frontogenesis) could bring a wintry mix of all ptypes to
the area on Saturday night and then again for Monday through
Tuesday. but confidence in ptypes, timing, duration, amounts,
transitions, and PoPs remains very low. Kept likely PoPs on days 6
& 7 for collaboration with surrounding offices. Anyone who has
travel plans or other weather-dependent plans early next week are
advised to continue monitoring the forecast over the next few
days.

42

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Reduced SN at COU as much of the precip across that region has
dissipated. SN at UIN shud gradually diminish thru the early
morning hours as the system pulls sewd. With cigs beginning to
rise, going TAF may hold on to SN too long. However, with sparse
RADAR coverage across this area, it is difficult to determine how
far SE some of the heavier bands stretch. Otherwise, winds will
remain nly with gusts to around 25 kts into the afternoon hrs.
Believe cigs will be slow to rise and going forecast may break up
clouds too quickly.

Specifics for KSTL/KSUS/KCPS: Believe SN will begin shortly before
sunrise. SN will gradually diminish thru the morning with cigs
slow to rise. Given how cold temps will be, can expect light SHSN
periods of flurries thru the day. Otherwise, winds will remain nly
with gusts to around 25 kts thru the afternoon hrs. Believe cigs
will be slow to rise and going forecast may break up clouds too
quickly.

Tilly

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     24   3  17   7 /  90  10   0   5
Quincy          14  -6  11   0 /  50   5   0   5
Columbia        18   0  16   7 /  40   5   0   5
Jefferson City  21   2  18   8 /  50   5   0   5
Salem           24   2  14   6 /  70  10   0   5
Farmington      24   4  18   7 /  60  10   0   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR Knox MO-
     Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR Adams IL-
     Brown IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 260909
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
309 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 308 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

Shortwave digging over northeast Missouri and associated cold front
now moving through the I-44 corridor will continue to produce light
snow through the first part of the morning.  Have also had a few
reports of freezing drizzle back in central Missouri, but not sure
how long this will last so have opted not to mention in the forecast
at this time.  Will continue to monitor and update if freezing
drizzle ends up persisting.  Both NAM and GFS show some decent low
level frontogenetical forcing back on the cold side of the front
before 12Z this morning...but the forcing quickly diminishes between
12Z and 15Z.  Mesoscale models do keep light snow going for a few
hours this morning, but really back off the precip by 15Z like the
operational models.  Both NSSL and NCEP 4km WRF models pop up what
look like instability snow showers this afternoon, so have kept
chance PoPs going into the afternoon primarily along and east of the
Mississippi River.  Total accumulations of 1 inch or less look
likely along and south of the I-70 corridor with 1-3 inches north
and northeast of St. Louis...primarily across west central and parts
of southwest Illinois.  Will continue headlines as they are this
morning.  Stuck close to the cold side of guidance for temperatures
today as the cold Arctic high moves in behind the cold front.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

The clipper system will be followed by an Arctic high pressure
center which builds across the central CONUS on Thursday/Thursday
night. The coldest temps on Thursday night/early Friday morning
should occur across the northwestern CWA due to proximity to the
ridge axis along with the fresh snow cover. The high pressure
center then shifts eastward on Friday and Saturday. Return flow
begins on Saturday around the back side of the high pressure
center.

Kanofsky

Atmospheric responses to a large low pressure system over the
southwestern CONUS and a trough over the northern plains (strong
WAA and frontogenesis) could bring a wintry mix of all ptypes to
the area on Saturday night and then again for Monday through
Tuesday. but confidence in ptypes, timing, duration, amounts,
transitions, and PoPs remains very low. Kept likely PoPs on days 6
& 7 for collaboration with surrounding offices. Anyone who has
travel plans or other weather-dependent plans early next week are
advised to continue monitoring the forecast over the next few
days.

42

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Reduced SN at COU as much of the precip across that region has
dissipated. SN at UIN shud gradually diminish thru the early
morning hours as the system pulls sewd. With cigs beginning to
rise, going TAF may hold on to SN too long. However, with sparse
RADAR coverage across this area, it is difficult to determine how
far SE some of the heavier bands stretch. Otherwise, winds will
remain nly with gusts to around 25 kts into the afternoon hrs.
Believe cigs will be slow to rise and going forecast may break up
clouds too quickly.

Specifics for KSTL/KSUS/KCPS: Believe SN will begin shortly before
sunrise. SN will gradually diminish thru the morning with cigs
slow to rise. Given how cold temps will be, can expect light SHSN
periods of flurries thru the day. Otherwise, winds will remain nly
with gusts to around 25 kts thru the afternoon hrs. Believe cigs
will be slow to rise and going forecast may break up clouds too
quickly.

Tilly

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     24   3  17   7 /  90  10   0   5
Quincy          14  -6  11   0 /  50   5   0   5
Columbia        18   0  16   7 /  40   5   0   5
Jefferson City  21   2  18   8 /  50   5   0   5
Salem           24   2  14   6 /  70  10   0   5
Farmington      24   4  18   7 /  60  10   0   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR Knox MO-
     Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR Adams IL-
     Brown IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 260909
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
309 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 308 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

Shortwave digging over northeast Missouri and associated cold front
now moving through the I-44 corridor will continue to produce light
snow through the first part of the morning.  Have also had a few
reports of freezing drizzle back in central Missouri, but not sure
how long this will last so have opted not to mention in the forecast
at this time.  Will continue to monitor and update if freezing
drizzle ends up persisting.  Both NAM and GFS show some decent low
level frontogenetical forcing back on the cold side of the front
before 12Z this morning...but the forcing quickly diminishes between
12Z and 15Z.  Mesoscale models do keep light snow going for a few
hours this morning, but really back off the precip by 15Z like the
operational models.  Both NSSL and NCEP 4km WRF models pop up what
look like instability snow showers this afternoon, so have kept
chance PoPs going into the afternoon primarily along and east of the
Mississippi River.  Total accumulations of 1 inch or less look
likely along and south of the I-70 corridor with 1-3 inches north
and northeast of St. Louis...primarily across west central and parts
of southwest Illinois.  Will continue headlines as they are this
morning.  Stuck close to the cold side of guidance for temperatures
today as the cold Arctic high moves in behind the cold front.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

The clipper system will be followed by an Arctic high pressure
center which builds across the central CONUS on Thursday/Thursday
night. The coldest temps on Thursday night/early Friday morning
should occur across the northwestern CWA due to proximity to the
ridge axis along with the fresh snow cover. The high pressure
center then shifts eastward on Friday and Saturday. Return flow
begins on Saturday around the back side of the high pressure
center.

Kanofsky

Atmospheric responses to a large low pressure system over the
southwestern CONUS and a trough over the northern plains (strong
WAA and frontogenesis) could bring a wintry mix of all ptypes to
the area on Saturday night and then again for Monday through
Tuesday. but confidence in ptypes, timing, duration, amounts,
transitions, and PoPs remains very low. Kept likely PoPs on days 6
& 7 for collaboration with surrounding offices. Anyone who has
travel plans or other weather-dependent plans early next week are
advised to continue monitoring the forecast over the next few
days.

42

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Reduced SN at COU as much of the precip across that region has
dissipated. SN at UIN shud gradually diminish thru the early
morning hours as the system pulls sewd. With cigs beginning to
rise, going TAF may hold on to SN too long. However, with sparse
RADAR coverage across this area, it is difficult to determine how
far SE some of the heavier bands stretch. Otherwise, winds will
remain nly with gusts to around 25 kts into the afternoon hrs.
Believe cigs will be slow to rise and going forecast may break up
clouds too quickly.

Specifics for KSTL/KSUS/KCPS: Believe SN will begin shortly before
sunrise. SN will gradually diminish thru the morning with cigs
slow to rise. Given how cold temps will be, can expect light SHSN
periods of flurries thru the day. Otherwise, winds will remain nly
with gusts to around 25 kts thru the afternoon hrs. Believe cigs
will be slow to rise and going forecast may break up clouds too
quickly.

Tilly

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     24   3  17   7 /  90  10   0   5
Quincy          14  -6  11   0 /  50   5   0   5
Columbia        18   0  16   7 /  40   5   0   5
Jefferson City  21   2  18   8 /  50   5   0   5
Salem           24   2  14   6 /  70  10   0   5
Farmington      24   4  18   7 /  60  10   0   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR Knox MO-
     Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR Adams IL-
     Brown IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 260555
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1155 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 901 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Snow was occurring across northeast MO and west central IL this
evening with about one half inch in Edina, MO to a dusting in UIN
so far. Surface low near AIZ will move southeastward through
southeast MO and weaken or fill later tonight. The latest NAM
model run depicts low level frontogenesis over the northern
portion of the forecast area weakening as it drops southward
through our area. Light snow should move into central MO late this
evening, then into the St Louis metro area shortly after midnight.
The most likely time for accumulating snow across southeast MO and
southwest IL, south and east of STL should occur Thursday morning.
It appears that total snow accumulations should range from around
3 inches in Edina, MO to around 1 inch in the St Louis metro area.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 302 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

A weakening clipper system will bring light snow to most of the
CWA tonight and tomorrow morning. This forecast package generally
followed model depictions of H9-H8 frontogenesis fields for timing
and placement of the highest PoPs, a change which delays pcpn
onset at most locations until after 26/00z and extends the
occurrence of light snowfall across the greater St. Louis metro
area through the Thursday morning commute. Accumulations of 1-3"
still look reasonable areawide with higher amounts (2-4") in
northeast MO and extreme west central IL, lower amounts (<1")
across southeastern MO and southwest IL, and about an inch around
the St. Louis metro area. Since drivers in the St. Louis metro
area normally have a difficult commute when light snow falls
during rush hour, we have issued an SPS to advise area residents
of tomorrow morning`s forecast.

We discussed whether to extend the existing Winter Weather
Advisory farther south and east to include the metro area between
09z-15z, but chose to hold off for now due to concerns that the
weakening clipper system might weaken even more than what is
currently forecast, which would leave very little (if any)
snowfall across the headline extension. The evening shift and mid
shift will re-evaluate the need for additional headlines based on
future trends.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

The clipper system will be followed by an Arctic high pressure
center which builds across the central CONUS on Thursday/Thursday
night. The coldest temps on Thursday night/early Friday morning
should occur across the northwestern CWA due to proximity to the
ridge axis along with the fresh snow cover. The high pressure
center then shifts eastward on Friday and Saturday. Return flow
begins on Saturday around the back side of the high pressure
center.

Kanofsky

Atmospheric responses to a large low pressure system over the
southwestern CONUS and a trough over the northern plains (strong
WAA and frontogenesis) could bring a wintry mix of all ptypes to
the area on Saturday night and then again for Monday through
Tuesday. but confidence in ptypes, timing, duration, amounts,
transitions, and PoPs remains very low. Kept likely PoPs on days 6
& 7 for collaboration with surrounding offices. Anyone who has
travel plans or other weather-dependent plans early next week are
advised to continue monitoring the forecast over the next few
days.

42

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Reduced SN at COU as much of the precip across that region has
dissipated. SN at UIN shud gradually diminish thru the early
morning hours as the system pulls sewd. With cigs beginning to
rise, going TAF may hold on to SN too long. However, with sparse
RADAR coverage across this area, it is difficult to determine how
far SE some of the heavier bands stretch. Otherwise, winds will
remain nly with gusts to around 25 kts into the afternoon hrs.
Believe cigs will be slow to rise and going forecast may break up
clouds too quickly.

Specifics for KSTL/KSUS/KCPS: Believe SN will begin shortly before
sunrise. SN will gradually diminish thru the morning with cigs
slow to rise. Given how cold temps will be, can expect light SHSN
periods of flurries thru the day. Otherwise, winds will remain nly
with gusts to around 25 kts thru the afternoon hrs. Believe cigs
will be slow to rise and going forecast may break up clouds too
quickly.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR Knox MO-
     Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR Adams IL-
     Brown IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 260555
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1155 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 901 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Snow was occurring across northeast MO and west central IL this
evening with about one half inch in Edina, MO to a dusting in UIN
so far. Surface low near AIZ will move southeastward through
southeast MO and weaken or fill later tonight. The latest NAM
model run depicts low level frontogenesis over the northern
portion of the forecast area weakening as it drops southward
through our area. Light snow should move into central MO late this
evening, then into the St Louis metro area shortly after midnight.
The most likely time for accumulating snow across southeast MO and
southwest IL, south and east of STL should occur Thursday morning.
It appears that total snow accumulations should range from around
3 inches in Edina, MO to around 1 inch in the St Louis metro area.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 302 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

A weakening clipper system will bring light snow to most of the
CWA tonight and tomorrow morning. This forecast package generally
followed model depictions of H9-H8 frontogenesis fields for timing
and placement of the highest PoPs, a change which delays pcpn
onset at most locations until after 26/00z and extends the
occurrence of light snowfall across the greater St. Louis metro
area through the Thursday morning commute. Accumulations of 1-3"
still look reasonable areawide with higher amounts (2-4") in
northeast MO and extreme west central IL, lower amounts (<1")
across southeastern MO and southwest IL, and about an inch around
the St. Louis metro area. Since drivers in the St. Louis metro
area normally have a difficult commute when light snow falls
during rush hour, we have issued an SPS to advise area residents
of tomorrow morning`s forecast.

We discussed whether to extend the existing Winter Weather
Advisory farther south and east to include the metro area between
09z-15z, but chose to hold off for now due to concerns that the
weakening clipper system might weaken even more than what is
currently forecast, which would leave very little (if any)
snowfall across the headline extension. The evening shift and mid
shift will re-evaluate the need for additional headlines based on
future trends.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

The clipper system will be followed by an Arctic high pressure
center which builds across the central CONUS on Thursday/Thursday
night. The coldest temps on Thursday night/early Friday morning
should occur across the northwestern CWA due to proximity to the
ridge axis along with the fresh snow cover. The high pressure
center then shifts eastward on Friday and Saturday. Return flow
begins on Saturday around the back side of the high pressure
center.

Kanofsky

Atmospheric responses to a large low pressure system over the
southwestern CONUS and a trough over the northern plains (strong
WAA and frontogenesis) could bring a wintry mix of all ptypes to
the area on Saturday night and then again for Monday through
Tuesday. but confidence in ptypes, timing, duration, amounts,
transitions, and PoPs remains very low. Kept likely PoPs on days 6
& 7 for collaboration with surrounding offices. Anyone who has
travel plans or other weather-dependent plans early next week are
advised to continue monitoring the forecast over the next few
days.

42

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Reduced SN at COU as much of the precip across that region has
dissipated. SN at UIN shud gradually diminish thru the early
morning hours as the system pulls sewd. With cigs beginning to
rise, going TAF may hold on to SN too long. However, with sparse
RADAR coverage across this area, it is difficult to determine how
far SE some of the heavier bands stretch. Otherwise, winds will
remain nly with gusts to around 25 kts into the afternoon hrs.
Believe cigs will be slow to rise and going forecast may break up
clouds too quickly.

Specifics for KSTL/KSUS/KCPS: Believe SN will begin shortly before
sunrise. SN will gradually diminish thru the morning with cigs
slow to rise. Given how cold temps will be, can expect light SHSN
periods of flurries thru the day. Otherwise, winds will remain nly
with gusts to around 25 kts thru the afternoon hrs. Believe cigs
will be slow to rise and going forecast may break up clouds too
quickly.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR Knox MO-
     Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR Adams IL-
     Brown IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 260555
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1155 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 901 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Snow was occurring across northeast MO and west central IL this
evening with about one half inch in Edina, MO to a dusting in UIN
so far. Surface low near AIZ will move southeastward through
southeast MO and weaken or fill later tonight. The latest NAM
model run depicts low level frontogenesis over the northern
portion of the forecast area weakening as it drops southward
through our area. Light snow should move into central MO late this
evening, then into the St Louis metro area shortly after midnight.
The most likely time for accumulating snow across southeast MO and
southwest IL, south and east of STL should occur Thursday morning.
It appears that total snow accumulations should range from around
3 inches in Edina, MO to around 1 inch in the St Louis metro area.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 302 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

A weakening clipper system will bring light snow to most of the
CWA tonight and tomorrow morning. This forecast package generally
followed model depictions of H9-H8 frontogenesis fields for timing
and placement of the highest PoPs, a change which delays pcpn
onset at most locations until after 26/00z and extends the
occurrence of light snowfall across the greater St. Louis metro
area through the Thursday morning commute. Accumulations of 1-3"
still look reasonable areawide with higher amounts (2-4") in
northeast MO and extreme west central IL, lower amounts (<1")
across southeastern MO and southwest IL, and about an inch around
the St. Louis metro area. Since drivers in the St. Louis metro
area normally have a difficult commute when light snow falls
during rush hour, we have issued an SPS to advise area residents
of tomorrow morning`s forecast.

We discussed whether to extend the existing Winter Weather
Advisory farther south and east to include the metro area between
09z-15z, but chose to hold off for now due to concerns that the
weakening clipper system might weaken even more than what is
currently forecast, which would leave very little (if any)
snowfall across the headline extension. The evening shift and mid
shift will re-evaluate the need for additional headlines based on
future trends.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

The clipper system will be followed by an Arctic high pressure
center which builds across the central CONUS on Thursday/Thursday
night. The coldest temps on Thursday night/early Friday morning
should occur across the northwestern CWA due to proximity to the
ridge axis along with the fresh snow cover. The high pressure
center then shifts eastward on Friday and Saturday. Return flow
begins on Saturday around the back side of the high pressure
center.

Kanofsky

Atmospheric responses to a large low pressure system over the
southwestern CONUS and a trough over the northern plains (strong
WAA and frontogenesis) could bring a wintry mix of all ptypes to
the area on Saturday night and then again for Monday through
Tuesday. but confidence in ptypes, timing, duration, amounts,
transitions, and PoPs remains very low. Kept likely PoPs on days 6
& 7 for collaboration with surrounding offices. Anyone who has
travel plans or other weather-dependent plans early next week are
advised to continue monitoring the forecast over the next few
days.

42

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Reduced SN at COU as much of the precip across that region has
dissipated. SN at UIN shud gradually diminish thru the early
morning hours as the system pulls sewd. With cigs beginning to
rise, going TAF may hold on to SN too long. However, with sparse
RADAR coverage across this area, it is difficult to determine how
far SE some of the heavier bands stretch. Otherwise, winds will
remain nly with gusts to around 25 kts into the afternoon hrs.
Believe cigs will be slow to rise and going forecast may break up
clouds too quickly.

Specifics for KSTL/KSUS/KCPS: Believe SN will begin shortly before
sunrise. SN will gradually diminish thru the morning with cigs
slow to rise. Given how cold temps will be, can expect light SHSN
periods of flurries thru the day. Otherwise, winds will remain nly
with gusts to around 25 kts thru the afternoon hrs. Believe cigs
will be slow to rise and going forecast may break up clouds too
quickly.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR Knox MO-
     Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR Adams IL-
     Brown IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 260555
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1155 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 901 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Snow was occurring across northeast MO and west central IL this
evening with about one half inch in Edina, MO to a dusting in UIN
so far. Surface low near AIZ will move southeastward through
southeast MO and weaken or fill later tonight. The latest NAM
model run depicts low level frontogenesis over the northern
portion of the forecast area weakening as it drops southward
through our area. Light snow should move into central MO late this
evening, then into the St Louis metro area shortly after midnight.
The most likely time for accumulating snow across southeast MO and
southwest IL, south and east of STL should occur Thursday morning.
It appears that total snow accumulations should range from around
3 inches in Edina, MO to around 1 inch in the St Louis metro area.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 302 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

A weakening clipper system will bring light snow to most of the
CWA tonight and tomorrow morning. This forecast package generally
followed model depictions of H9-H8 frontogenesis fields for timing
and placement of the highest PoPs, a change which delays pcpn
onset at most locations until after 26/00z and extends the
occurrence of light snowfall across the greater St. Louis metro
area through the Thursday morning commute. Accumulations of 1-3"
still look reasonable areawide with higher amounts (2-4") in
northeast MO and extreme west central IL, lower amounts (<1")
across southeastern MO and southwest IL, and about an inch around
the St. Louis metro area. Since drivers in the St. Louis metro
area normally have a difficult commute when light snow falls
during rush hour, we have issued an SPS to advise area residents
of tomorrow morning`s forecast.

We discussed whether to extend the existing Winter Weather
Advisory farther south and east to include the metro area between
09z-15z, but chose to hold off for now due to concerns that the
weakening clipper system might weaken even more than what is
currently forecast, which would leave very little (if any)
snowfall across the headline extension. The evening shift and mid
shift will re-evaluate the need for additional headlines based on
future trends.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

The clipper system will be followed by an Arctic high pressure
center which builds across the central CONUS on Thursday/Thursday
night. The coldest temps on Thursday night/early Friday morning
should occur across the northwestern CWA due to proximity to the
ridge axis along with the fresh snow cover. The high pressure
center then shifts eastward on Friday and Saturday. Return flow
begins on Saturday around the back side of the high pressure
center.

Kanofsky

Atmospheric responses to a large low pressure system over the
southwestern CONUS and a trough over the northern plains (strong
WAA and frontogenesis) could bring a wintry mix of all ptypes to
the area on Saturday night and then again for Monday through
Tuesday. but confidence in ptypes, timing, duration, amounts,
transitions, and PoPs remains very low. Kept likely PoPs on days 6
& 7 for collaboration with surrounding offices. Anyone who has
travel plans or other weather-dependent plans early next week are
advised to continue monitoring the forecast over the next few
days.

42

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Reduced SN at COU as much of the precip across that region has
dissipated. SN at UIN shud gradually diminish thru the early
morning hours as the system pulls sewd. With cigs beginning to
rise, going TAF may hold on to SN too long. However, with sparse
RADAR coverage across this area, it is difficult to determine how
far SE some of the heavier bands stretch. Otherwise, winds will
remain nly with gusts to around 25 kts into the afternoon hrs.
Believe cigs will be slow to rise and going forecast may break up
clouds too quickly.

Specifics for KSTL/KSUS/KCPS: Believe SN will begin shortly before
sunrise. SN will gradually diminish thru the morning with cigs
slow to rise. Given how cold temps will be, can expect light SHSN
periods of flurries thru the day. Otherwise, winds will remain nly
with gusts to around 25 kts thru the afternoon hrs. Believe cigs
will be slow to rise and going forecast may break up clouds too
quickly.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR Knox MO-
     Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR Adams IL-
     Brown IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 260555
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1155 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 901 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Snow was occurring across northeast MO and west central IL this
evening with about one half inch in Edina, MO to a dusting in UIN
so far. Surface low near AIZ will move southeastward through
southeast MO and weaken or fill later tonight. The latest NAM
model run depicts low level frontogenesis over the northern
portion of the forecast area weakening as it drops southward
through our area. Light snow should move into central MO late this
evening, then into the St Louis metro area shortly after midnight.
The most likely time for accumulating snow across southeast MO and
southwest IL, south and east of STL should occur Thursday morning.
It appears that total snow accumulations should range from around
3 inches in Edina, MO to around 1 inch in the St Louis metro area.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 302 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

A weakening clipper system will bring light snow to most of the
CWA tonight and tomorrow morning. This forecast package generally
followed model depictions of H9-H8 frontogenesis fields for timing
and placement of the highest PoPs, a change which delays pcpn
onset at most locations until after 26/00z and extends the
occurrence of light snowfall across the greater St. Louis metro
area through the Thursday morning commute. Accumulations of 1-3"
still look reasonable areawide with higher amounts (2-4") in
northeast MO and extreme west central IL, lower amounts (<1")
across southeastern MO and southwest IL, and about an inch around
the St. Louis metro area. Since drivers in the St. Louis metro
area normally have a difficult commute when light snow falls
during rush hour, we have issued an SPS to advise area residents
of tomorrow morning`s forecast.

We discussed whether to extend the existing Winter Weather
Advisory farther south and east to include the metro area between
09z-15z, but chose to hold off for now due to concerns that the
weakening clipper system might weaken even more than what is
currently forecast, which would leave very little (if any)
snowfall across the headline extension. The evening shift and mid
shift will re-evaluate the need for additional headlines based on
future trends.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

The clipper system will be followed by an Arctic high pressure
center which builds across the central CONUS on Thursday/Thursday
night. The coldest temps on Thursday night/early Friday morning
should occur across the northwestern CWA due to proximity to the
ridge axis along with the fresh snow cover. The high pressure
center then shifts eastward on Friday and Saturday. Return flow
begins on Saturday around the back side of the high pressure
center.

Kanofsky

Atmospheric responses to a large low pressure system over the
southwestern CONUS and a trough over the northern plains (strong
WAA and frontogenesis) could bring a wintry mix of all ptypes to
the area on Saturday night and then again for Monday through
Tuesday. but confidence in ptypes, timing, duration, amounts,
transitions, and PoPs remains very low. Kept likely PoPs on days 6
& 7 for collaboration with surrounding offices. Anyone who has
travel plans or other weather-dependent plans early next week are
advised to continue monitoring the forecast over the next few
days.

42

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Reduced SN at COU as much of the precip across that region has
dissipated. SN at UIN shud gradually diminish thru the early
morning hours as the system pulls sewd. With cigs beginning to
rise, going TAF may hold on to SN too long. However, with sparse
RADAR coverage across this area, it is difficult to determine how
far SE some of the heavier bands stretch. Otherwise, winds will
remain nly with gusts to around 25 kts into the afternoon hrs.
Believe cigs will be slow to rise and going forecast may break up
clouds too quickly.

Specifics for KSTL/KSUS/KCPS: Believe SN will begin shortly before
sunrise. SN will gradually diminish thru the morning with cigs
slow to rise. Given how cold temps will be, can expect light SHSN
periods of flurries thru the day. Otherwise, winds will remain nly
with gusts to around 25 kts thru the afternoon hrs. Believe cigs
will be slow to rise and going forecast may break up clouds too
quickly.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR Knox MO-
     Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR Adams IL-
     Brown IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 260555
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1155 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 901 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Snow was occurring across northeast MO and west central IL this
evening with about one half inch in Edina, MO to a dusting in UIN
so far. Surface low near AIZ will move southeastward through
southeast MO and weaken or fill later tonight. The latest NAM
model run depicts low level frontogenesis over the northern
portion of the forecast area weakening as it drops southward
through our area. Light snow should move into central MO late this
evening, then into the St Louis metro area shortly after midnight.
The most likely time for accumulating snow across southeast MO and
southwest IL, south and east of STL should occur Thursday morning.
It appears that total snow accumulations should range from around
3 inches in Edina, MO to around 1 inch in the St Louis metro area.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 302 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

A weakening clipper system will bring light snow to most of the
CWA tonight and tomorrow morning. This forecast package generally
followed model depictions of H9-H8 frontogenesis fields for timing
and placement of the highest PoPs, a change which delays pcpn
onset at most locations until after 26/00z and extends the
occurrence of light snowfall across the greater St. Louis metro
area through the Thursday morning commute. Accumulations of 1-3"
still look reasonable areawide with higher amounts (2-4") in
northeast MO and extreme west central IL, lower amounts (<1")
across southeastern MO and southwest IL, and about an inch around
the St. Louis metro area. Since drivers in the St. Louis metro
area normally have a difficult commute when light snow falls
during rush hour, we have issued an SPS to advise area residents
of tomorrow morning`s forecast.

We discussed whether to extend the existing Winter Weather
Advisory farther south and east to include the metro area between
09z-15z, but chose to hold off for now due to concerns that the
weakening clipper system might weaken even more than what is
currently forecast, which would leave very little (if any)
snowfall across the headline extension. The evening shift and mid
shift will re-evaluate the need for additional headlines based on
future trends.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

The clipper system will be followed by an Arctic high pressure
center which builds across the central CONUS on Thursday/Thursday
night. The coldest temps on Thursday night/early Friday morning
should occur across the northwestern CWA due to proximity to the
ridge axis along with the fresh snow cover. The high pressure
center then shifts eastward on Friday and Saturday. Return flow
begins on Saturday around the back side of the high pressure
center.

Kanofsky

Atmospheric responses to a large low pressure system over the
southwestern CONUS and a trough over the northern plains (strong
WAA and frontogenesis) could bring a wintry mix of all ptypes to
the area on Saturday night and then again for Monday through
Tuesday. but confidence in ptypes, timing, duration, amounts,
transitions, and PoPs remains very low. Kept likely PoPs on days 6
& 7 for collaboration with surrounding offices. Anyone who has
travel plans or other weather-dependent plans early next week are
advised to continue monitoring the forecast over the next few
days.

42

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Reduced SN at COU as much of the precip across that region has
dissipated. SN at UIN shud gradually diminish thru the early
morning hours as the system pulls sewd. With cigs beginning to
rise, going TAF may hold on to SN too long. However, with sparse
RADAR coverage across this area, it is difficult to determine how
far SE some of the heavier bands stretch. Otherwise, winds will
remain nly with gusts to around 25 kts into the afternoon hrs.
Believe cigs will be slow to rise and going forecast may break up
clouds too quickly.

Specifics for KSTL/KSUS/KCPS: Believe SN will begin shortly before
sunrise. SN will gradually diminish thru the morning with cigs
slow to rise. Given how cold temps will be, can expect light SHSN
periods of flurries thru the day. Otherwise, winds will remain nly
with gusts to around 25 kts thru the afternoon hrs. Believe cigs
will be slow to rise and going forecast may break up clouds too
quickly.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR Knox MO-
     Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR Adams IL-
     Brown IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 260551
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1151 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Surface low is just north of Maryville this afternoon with a strong
cold front trailing to the southwest. Surface low will track to near
Chillicothe around 6 PM...and to near Sedalia around 8 PM. Most
accumulating snow will stay just to the east of this track where 1"
to 3" will be the general rule. Can`t rule out a few amounts a bit
higher than this near and north of Kirksville, but with temperatures
having risen quite a bit warmer than was expected this afternoon,
snow that falls initially will have to battle some warmer ground
temperatures and may melt at first. With the track of the higher
amounts continuing to shift east, a few more counties over north
central MO were removed from the winter weather advisory. These
counties should see snow amounts of an inch or less.

Further south...still expect a band of light precipitation to trail
the front as it swings into eastern KS and western MO later this
evening. Rapid drop in temperatures behind the front should keep most
of this in the form of snow although some rain is still possible
initially. Snow should only last 2 or 3 hours at most for these areas and
will again have to battle warm ground temperatures, so any snowfall
amounts to the west of the surface low track should only be a few
tenths of an inch. This matches up with what was measured at NWS Omaha
where only 0.2" of snow was measured with this snow band.

Perhaps a bigger concern will be the rapid drop in temperatures
immediately following frontal passage. Some areas could fall from the
50s into the 20s in just a couple of hours, bringing flash-freeze
concerns to any areas that see rain or melting snow when precipitation
begins. This will be especially true across the advisory area where
more precipitation will fall, but could be a concern anywhere that
sees enough rain or melted snow to wet the ground. Will highlight
this concern with a special weather statement for any areas not in
the current advisory.

Behind this system the story turns to cold for Thursday and Friday.
1041 mb Arctic high building into the area will keep highs in the
teens for most areas both days. Nighttime temperatures will drop into
the single digits, and probably some sub-zero readings over any areas
with snow on the ground. May see wind chills dip into advisory
criteria (-15 F) over north central MO Thursday night.

Attention then turns to the increasing potential for a winter storm
over the weekend. GFS and ECMWF have been surprisingly consistent the
past few runs bringing quite a bit of accumulating snow across the
region Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Consensus of both models is to
bring warning-criteria snowfall, or 6"+, into much of the forecast
area with the highest values right along I-70. Despite this
consensus, major pattern shifts like this one almost always throw
high variability into medium range models, so that even higher-
than-normal model agreement such as this can quickly go away. With that
said, it`s still too early to start pinpointing precipitation amounts
or where the highest will fall, but confidence is increasing that
precipitation should stay mostly snow Saturday and Saturday night.

Forecast remains interesting into early next week with continued
upper-level troughing to our west. This should send one or two
additional rounds of precipitation into the region especially Monday
night and Tuesday. Precipitation type with this round is highly
uncertain with increasing signs that it could fall as a wintry mix or
even rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Main weather concern through Thursday afternoon will be the strong
and gusty northerly winds. While the pressure gradient will gradually
weaken through tomorrow the expected diurnal mixing should maintain
the brisk north winds until sunrise.

Satellite imagery shows a large wedge of general clearing of the
MVFR cigs across eastern NE to central IA south through northwest MO
and eastern KS. However, this is deceiving as streamers of MVFR cigs
and snow showers continue to reform within this clear wedge. This
will likely lead to skies vacillating between FEW and BKN/OVC for the
next few hours before a thicker area of MVFR cigs over central NE
slides southeast and into western MO. MVFR cigs should finally
scatter out by mid morning if not sooner.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ005>008-
     015>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KEAX 260551
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1151 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Surface low is just north of Maryville this afternoon with a strong
cold front trailing to the southwest. Surface low will track to near
Chillicothe around 6 PM...and to near Sedalia around 8 PM. Most
accumulating snow will stay just to the east of this track where 1"
to 3" will be the general rule. Can`t rule out a few amounts a bit
higher than this near and north of Kirksville, but with temperatures
having risen quite a bit warmer than was expected this afternoon,
snow that falls initially will have to battle some warmer ground
temperatures and may melt at first. With the track of the higher
amounts continuing to shift east, a few more counties over north
central MO were removed from the winter weather advisory. These
counties should see snow amounts of an inch or less.

Further south...still expect a band of light precipitation to trail
the front as it swings into eastern KS and western MO later this
evening. Rapid drop in temperatures behind the front should keep most
of this in the form of snow although some rain is still possible
initially. Snow should only last 2 or 3 hours at most for these areas and
will again have to battle warm ground temperatures, so any snowfall
amounts to the west of the surface low track should only be a few
tenths of an inch. This matches up with what was measured at NWS Omaha
where only 0.2" of snow was measured with this snow band.

Perhaps a bigger concern will be the rapid drop in temperatures
immediately following frontal passage. Some areas could fall from the
50s into the 20s in just a couple of hours, bringing flash-freeze
concerns to any areas that see rain or melting snow when precipitation
begins. This will be especially true across the advisory area where
more precipitation will fall, but could be a concern anywhere that
sees enough rain or melted snow to wet the ground. Will highlight
this concern with a special weather statement for any areas not in
the current advisory.

Behind this system the story turns to cold for Thursday and Friday.
1041 mb Arctic high building into the area will keep highs in the
teens for most areas both days. Nighttime temperatures will drop into
the single digits, and probably some sub-zero readings over any areas
with snow on the ground. May see wind chills dip into advisory
criteria (-15 F) over north central MO Thursday night.

Attention then turns to the increasing potential for a winter storm
over the weekend. GFS and ECMWF have been surprisingly consistent the
past few runs bringing quite a bit of accumulating snow across the
region Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Consensus of both models is to
bring warning-criteria snowfall, or 6"+, into much of the forecast
area with the highest values right along I-70. Despite this
consensus, major pattern shifts like this one almost always throw
high variability into medium range models, so that even higher-
than-normal model agreement such as this can quickly go away. With that
said, it`s still too early to start pinpointing precipitation amounts
or where the highest will fall, but confidence is increasing that
precipitation should stay mostly snow Saturday and Saturday night.

Forecast remains interesting into early next week with continued
upper-level troughing to our west. This should send one or two
additional rounds of precipitation into the region especially Monday
night and Tuesday. Precipitation type with this round is highly
uncertain with increasing signs that it could fall as a wintry mix or
even rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Main weather concern through Thursday afternoon will be the strong
and gusty northerly winds. While the pressure gradient will gradually
weaken through tomorrow the expected diurnal mixing should maintain
the brisk north winds until sunrise.

Satellite imagery shows a large wedge of general clearing of the
MVFR cigs across eastern NE to central IA south through northwest MO
and eastern KS. However, this is deceiving as streamers of MVFR cigs
and snow showers continue to reform within this clear wedge. This
will likely lead to skies vacillating between FEW and BKN/OVC for the
next few hours before a thicker area of MVFR cigs over central NE
slides southeast and into western MO. MVFR cigs should finally
scatter out by mid morning if not sooner.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ005>008-
     015>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...MJ






000
FXUS63 KEAX 260551
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1151 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Surface low is just north of Maryville this afternoon with a strong
cold front trailing to the southwest. Surface low will track to near
Chillicothe around 6 PM...and to near Sedalia around 8 PM. Most
accumulating snow will stay just to the east of this track where 1"
to 3" will be the general rule. Can`t rule out a few amounts a bit
higher than this near and north of Kirksville, but with temperatures
having risen quite a bit warmer than was expected this afternoon,
snow that falls initially will have to battle some warmer ground
temperatures and may melt at first. With the track of the higher
amounts continuing to shift east, a few more counties over north
central MO were removed from the winter weather advisory. These
counties should see snow amounts of an inch or less.

Further south...still expect a band of light precipitation to trail
the front as it swings into eastern KS and western MO later this
evening. Rapid drop in temperatures behind the front should keep most
of this in the form of snow although some rain is still possible
initially. Snow should only last 2 or 3 hours at most for these areas and
will again have to battle warm ground temperatures, so any snowfall
amounts to the west of the surface low track should only be a few
tenths of an inch. This matches up with what was measured at NWS Omaha
where only 0.2" of snow was measured with this snow band.

Perhaps a bigger concern will be the rapid drop in temperatures
immediately following frontal passage. Some areas could fall from the
50s into the 20s in just a couple of hours, bringing flash-freeze
concerns to any areas that see rain or melting snow when precipitation
begins. This will be especially true across the advisory area where
more precipitation will fall, but could be a concern anywhere that
sees enough rain or melted snow to wet the ground. Will highlight
this concern with a special weather statement for any areas not in
the current advisory.

Behind this system the story turns to cold for Thursday and Friday.
1041 mb Arctic high building into the area will keep highs in the
teens for most areas both days. Nighttime temperatures will drop into
the single digits, and probably some sub-zero readings over any areas
with snow on the ground. May see wind chills dip into advisory
criteria (-15 F) over north central MO Thursday night.

Attention then turns to the increasing potential for a winter storm
over the weekend. GFS and ECMWF have been surprisingly consistent the
past few runs bringing quite a bit of accumulating snow across the
region Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Consensus of both models is to
bring warning-criteria snowfall, or 6"+, into much of the forecast
area with the highest values right along I-70. Despite this
consensus, major pattern shifts like this one almost always throw
high variability into medium range models, so that even higher-
than-normal model agreement such as this can quickly go away. With that
said, it`s still too early to start pinpointing precipitation amounts
or where the highest will fall, but confidence is increasing that
precipitation should stay mostly snow Saturday and Saturday night.

Forecast remains interesting into early next week with continued
upper-level troughing to our west. This should send one or two
additional rounds of precipitation into the region especially Monday
night and Tuesday. Precipitation type with this round is highly
uncertain with increasing signs that it could fall as a wintry mix or
even rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Main weather concern through Thursday afternoon will be the strong
and gusty northerly winds. While the pressure gradient will gradually
weaken through tomorrow the expected diurnal mixing should maintain
the brisk north winds until sunrise.

Satellite imagery shows a large wedge of general clearing of the
MVFR cigs across eastern NE to central IA south through northwest MO
and eastern KS. However, this is deceiving as streamers of MVFR cigs
and snow showers continue to reform within this clear wedge. This
will likely lead to skies vacillating between FEW and BKN/OVC for the
next few hours before a thicker area of MVFR cigs over central NE
slides southeast and into western MO. MVFR cigs should finally
scatter out by mid morning if not sooner.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ005>008-
     015>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...MJ






000
FXUS63 KEAX 260551
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1151 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Surface low is just north of Maryville this afternoon with a strong
cold front trailing to the southwest. Surface low will track to near
Chillicothe around 6 PM...and to near Sedalia around 8 PM. Most
accumulating snow will stay just to the east of this track where 1"
to 3" will be the general rule. Can`t rule out a few amounts a bit
higher than this near and north of Kirksville, but with temperatures
having risen quite a bit warmer than was expected this afternoon,
snow that falls initially will have to battle some warmer ground
temperatures and may melt at first. With the track of the higher
amounts continuing to shift east, a few more counties over north
central MO were removed from the winter weather advisory. These
counties should see snow amounts of an inch or less.

Further south...still expect a band of light precipitation to trail
the front as it swings into eastern KS and western MO later this
evening. Rapid drop in temperatures behind the front should keep most
of this in the form of snow although some rain is still possible
initially. Snow should only last 2 or 3 hours at most for these areas and
will again have to battle warm ground temperatures, so any snowfall
amounts to the west of the surface low track should only be a few
tenths of an inch. This matches up with what was measured at NWS Omaha
where only 0.2" of snow was measured with this snow band.

Perhaps a bigger concern will be the rapid drop in temperatures
immediately following frontal passage. Some areas could fall from the
50s into the 20s in just a couple of hours, bringing flash-freeze
concerns to any areas that see rain or melting snow when precipitation
begins. This will be especially true across the advisory area where
more precipitation will fall, but could be a concern anywhere that
sees enough rain or melted snow to wet the ground. Will highlight
this concern with a special weather statement for any areas not in
the current advisory.

Behind this system the story turns to cold for Thursday and Friday.
1041 mb Arctic high building into the area will keep highs in the
teens for most areas both days. Nighttime temperatures will drop into
the single digits, and probably some sub-zero readings over any areas
with snow on the ground. May see wind chills dip into advisory
criteria (-15 F) over north central MO Thursday night.

Attention then turns to the increasing potential for a winter storm
over the weekend. GFS and ECMWF have been surprisingly consistent the
past few runs bringing quite a bit of accumulating snow across the
region Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Consensus of both models is to
bring warning-criteria snowfall, or 6"+, into much of the forecast
area with the highest values right along I-70. Despite this
consensus, major pattern shifts like this one almost always throw
high variability into medium range models, so that even higher-
than-normal model agreement such as this can quickly go away. With that
said, it`s still too early to start pinpointing precipitation amounts
or where the highest will fall, but confidence is increasing that
precipitation should stay mostly snow Saturday and Saturday night.

Forecast remains interesting into early next week with continued
upper-level troughing to our west. This should send one or two
additional rounds of precipitation into the region especially Monday
night and Tuesday. Precipitation type with this round is highly
uncertain with increasing signs that it could fall as a wintry mix or
even rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Main weather concern through Thursday afternoon will be the strong
and gusty northerly winds. While the pressure gradient will gradually
weaken through tomorrow the expected diurnal mixing should maintain
the brisk north winds until sunrise.

Satellite imagery shows a large wedge of general clearing of the
MVFR cigs across eastern NE to central IA south through northwest MO
and eastern KS. However, this is deceiving as streamers of MVFR cigs
and snow showers continue to reform within this clear wedge. This
will likely lead to skies vacillating between FEW and BKN/OVC for the
next few hours before a thicker area of MVFR cigs over central NE
slides southeast and into western MO. MVFR cigs should finally
scatter out by mid morning if not sooner.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ005>008-
     015>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KSGF 260548
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1148 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 159 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

A clipper system is currently near Iowa and moving southeastward.
A strong cold front is currently near Topeka Kansas and quickly
moving southward. This front will sweep through the area late this
evening. A band of light precip will arrive with the
front and behind it...possibly starting out as a rain/snow mix and
end as light snow or flurries. The best potential for precip will
be from Nevada to Springfield to West Plains and north of that
line.

There will be some light snow accumulations of a dusting to up to
half an inch for areas of southwest Missouri. The best potential
for up to an inch of snow will be from Warsaw to Fort Leonard Wood
to Round Spring and north of that line into central Missouri.

Flurries will end from west to east during the midday hours on
Thursday. The bigger weather story for Thursday will be the return
of Arctic air along with gusty northwest winds up to 35 mph.
Daytime high temperatures will struggle to reach the middle to
upper 20s and wind chill values will be in the single digits to
just slightly below zero.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 159 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

The clipper type system will be exiting the region starting
Thursday evening. A few remaining flurries will remain possible
across the eastern Ozarks as an upper level short wave trough
tracks into northeastern Missouri. Otherwise, surface high
pressure will build south across the Dakotas and will usher in a
bitterly cold air mass. Lows will dip well down into the single
digits over most areas with wind chills below zero. Wind chills
could push advisory criteria (-10) across portions of the central
and eastern Ozarks by sunrise on Friday.

That surface high will then settle southeast towards the Ohio
Valley from Friday into Friday night. Chilly and dry conditions
will continue. This will be the most uneventful portion of the
medium to long range forecast.

The upper level flow will then back to west-southwesterly starting
Saturday. We are expecting a shield of precipitation to spread
from west to east across the area from later Saturday into
Saturday night as low level upglide kicks in. Indications are that
the precipitation will start off as snow. Models then bring a warm
nose into southern Missouri starting later Saturday night. This
will open the door to more of a wintry mix as we head towards
Sunday morning. While precipitation amounts do not look all that
impressive, it does appear that measurable snow and perhaps some
ice are becoming increasingly likely. It is then quite possible
that at least southern portions of the area warm up enough to
change over to rain later Sunday.

Global models then bring a temporary end to the precipitation
Sunday night and early Monday. Multiple upper level waves are
then forecast to come out of the southwestern U.S. as a positively
tilted upper level trough sets up from the northern Plains into
northern Mexico. This regime bodes well for a rather "wet" period
across the Ozarks from later Monday through the middle of next
week. Out that far, precipitation type is a very tough call.
Global models are currently depicting what would be a wintry mix
changing to rain event with even some thunder possible. However, a
few slight changes to the synoptic scale pattern could tilt the
tables in favor of a more wintry scenario. Regardless, we will
also have to watch hydro across the area if we see multiple days
of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong cold front is moving through
the area which will veer gusty winds to the northwest. MVFR
ceilings, possibly briefly IFR, will be common behind the front. A
brief period of light snow or flurries is also expected early in
the taf period. Ceilings are expected to scatter out late in the
taf period with diminishing winds.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KSGF 260548
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1148 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 159 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

A clipper system is currently near Iowa and moving southeastward.
A strong cold front is currently near Topeka Kansas and quickly
moving southward. This front will sweep through the area late this
evening. A band of light precip will arrive with the
front and behind it...possibly starting out as a rain/snow mix and
end as light snow or flurries. The best potential for precip will
be from Nevada to Springfield to West Plains and north of that
line.

There will be some light snow accumulations of a dusting to up to
half an inch for areas of southwest Missouri. The best potential
for up to an inch of snow will be from Warsaw to Fort Leonard Wood
to Round Spring and north of that line into central Missouri.

Flurries will end from west to east during the midday hours on
Thursday. The bigger weather story for Thursday will be the return
of Arctic air along with gusty northwest winds up to 35 mph.
Daytime high temperatures will struggle to reach the middle to
upper 20s and wind chill values will be in the single digits to
just slightly below zero.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 159 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

The clipper type system will be exiting the region starting
Thursday evening. A few remaining flurries will remain possible
across the eastern Ozarks as an upper level short wave trough
tracks into northeastern Missouri. Otherwise, surface high
pressure will build south across the Dakotas and will usher in a
bitterly cold air mass. Lows will dip well down into the single
digits over most areas with wind chills below zero. Wind chills
could push advisory criteria (-10) across portions of the central
and eastern Ozarks by sunrise on Friday.

That surface high will then settle southeast towards the Ohio
Valley from Friday into Friday night. Chilly and dry conditions
will continue. This will be the most uneventful portion of the
medium to long range forecast.

The upper level flow will then back to west-southwesterly starting
Saturday. We are expecting a shield of precipitation to spread
from west to east across the area from later Saturday into
Saturday night as low level upglide kicks in. Indications are that
the precipitation will start off as snow. Models then bring a warm
nose into southern Missouri starting later Saturday night. This
will open the door to more of a wintry mix as we head towards
Sunday morning. While precipitation amounts do not look all that
impressive, it does appear that measurable snow and perhaps some
ice are becoming increasingly likely. It is then quite possible
that at least southern portions of the area warm up enough to
change over to rain later Sunday.

Global models then bring a temporary end to the precipitation
Sunday night and early Monday. Multiple upper level waves are
then forecast to come out of the southwestern U.S. as a positively
tilted upper level trough sets up from the northern Plains into
northern Mexico. This regime bodes well for a rather "wet" period
across the Ozarks from later Monday through the middle of next
week. Out that far, precipitation type is a very tough call.
Global models are currently depicting what would be a wintry mix
changing to rain event with even some thunder possible. However, a
few slight changes to the synoptic scale pattern could tilt the
tables in favor of a more wintry scenario. Regardless, we will
also have to watch hydro across the area if we see multiple days
of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong cold front is moving through
the area which will veer gusty winds to the northwest. MVFR
ceilings, possibly briefly IFR, will be common behind the front. A
brief period of light snow or flurries is also expected early in
the taf period. Ceilings are expected to scatter out late in the
taf period with diminishing winds.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 260548
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1148 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 159 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

A clipper system is currently near Iowa and moving southeastward.
A strong cold front is currently near Topeka Kansas and quickly
moving southward. This front will sweep through the area late this
evening. A band of light precip will arrive with the
front and behind it...possibly starting out as a rain/snow mix and
end as light snow or flurries. The best potential for precip will
be from Nevada to Springfield to West Plains and north of that
line.

There will be some light snow accumulations of a dusting to up to
half an inch for areas of southwest Missouri. The best potential
for up to an inch of snow will be from Warsaw to Fort Leonard Wood
to Round Spring and north of that line into central Missouri.

Flurries will end from west to east during the midday hours on
Thursday. The bigger weather story for Thursday will be the return
of Arctic air along with gusty northwest winds up to 35 mph.
Daytime high temperatures will struggle to reach the middle to
upper 20s and wind chill values will be in the single digits to
just slightly below zero.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 159 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

The clipper type system will be exiting the region starting
Thursday evening. A few remaining flurries will remain possible
across the eastern Ozarks as an upper level short wave trough
tracks into northeastern Missouri. Otherwise, surface high
pressure will build south across the Dakotas and will usher in a
bitterly cold air mass. Lows will dip well down into the single
digits over most areas with wind chills below zero. Wind chills
could push advisory criteria (-10) across portions of the central
and eastern Ozarks by sunrise on Friday.

That surface high will then settle southeast towards the Ohio
Valley from Friday into Friday night. Chilly and dry conditions
will continue. This will be the most uneventful portion of the
medium to long range forecast.

The upper level flow will then back to west-southwesterly starting
Saturday. We are expecting a shield of precipitation to spread
from west to east across the area from later Saturday into
Saturday night as low level upglide kicks in. Indications are that
the precipitation will start off as snow. Models then bring a warm
nose into southern Missouri starting later Saturday night. This
will open the door to more of a wintry mix as we head towards
Sunday morning. While precipitation amounts do not look all that
impressive, it does appear that measurable snow and perhaps some
ice are becoming increasingly likely. It is then quite possible
that at least southern portions of the area warm up enough to
change over to rain later Sunday.

Global models then bring a temporary end to the precipitation
Sunday night and early Monday. Multiple upper level waves are
then forecast to come out of the southwestern U.S. as a positively
tilted upper level trough sets up from the northern Plains into
northern Mexico. This regime bodes well for a rather "wet" period
across the Ozarks from later Monday through the middle of next
week. Out that far, precipitation type is a very tough call.
Global models are currently depicting what would be a wintry mix
changing to rain event with even some thunder possible. However, a
few slight changes to the synoptic scale pattern could tilt the
tables in favor of a more wintry scenario. Regardless, we will
also have to watch hydro across the area if we see multiple days
of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong cold front is moving through
the area which will veer gusty winds to the northwest. MVFR
ceilings, possibly briefly IFR, will be common behind the front. A
brief period of light snow or flurries is also expected early in
the taf period. Ceilings are expected to scatter out late in the
taf period with diminishing winds.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KSGF 260548
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1148 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 159 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

A clipper system is currently near Iowa and moving southeastward.
A strong cold front is currently near Topeka Kansas and quickly
moving southward. This front will sweep through the area late this
evening. A band of light precip will arrive with the
front and behind it...possibly starting out as a rain/snow mix and
end as light snow or flurries. The best potential for precip will
be from Nevada to Springfield to West Plains and north of that
line.

There will be some light snow accumulations of a dusting to up to
half an inch for areas of southwest Missouri. The best potential
for up to an inch of snow will be from Warsaw to Fort Leonard Wood
to Round Spring and north of that line into central Missouri.

Flurries will end from west to east during the midday hours on
Thursday. The bigger weather story for Thursday will be the return
of Arctic air along with gusty northwest winds up to 35 mph.
Daytime high temperatures will struggle to reach the middle to
upper 20s and wind chill values will be in the single digits to
just slightly below zero.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 159 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

The clipper type system will be exiting the region starting
Thursday evening. A few remaining flurries will remain possible
across the eastern Ozarks as an upper level short wave trough
tracks into northeastern Missouri. Otherwise, surface high
pressure will build south across the Dakotas and will usher in a
bitterly cold air mass. Lows will dip well down into the single
digits over most areas with wind chills below zero. Wind chills
could push advisory criteria (-10) across portions of the central
and eastern Ozarks by sunrise on Friday.

That surface high will then settle southeast towards the Ohio
Valley from Friday into Friday night. Chilly and dry conditions
will continue. This will be the most uneventful portion of the
medium to long range forecast.

The upper level flow will then back to west-southwesterly starting
Saturday. We are expecting a shield of precipitation to spread
from west to east across the area from later Saturday into
Saturday night as low level upglide kicks in. Indications are that
the precipitation will start off as snow. Models then bring a warm
nose into southern Missouri starting later Saturday night. This
will open the door to more of a wintry mix as we head towards
Sunday morning. While precipitation amounts do not look all that
impressive, it does appear that measurable snow and perhaps some
ice are becoming increasingly likely. It is then quite possible
that at least southern portions of the area warm up enough to
change over to rain later Sunday.

Global models then bring a temporary end to the precipitation
Sunday night and early Monday. Multiple upper level waves are
then forecast to come out of the southwestern U.S. as a positively
tilted upper level trough sets up from the northern Plains into
northern Mexico. This regime bodes well for a rather "wet" period
across the Ozarks from later Monday through the middle of next
week. Out that far, precipitation type is a very tough call.
Global models are currently depicting what would be a wintry mix
changing to rain event with even some thunder possible. However, a
few slight changes to the synoptic scale pattern could tilt the
tables in favor of a more wintry scenario. Regardless, we will
also have to watch hydro across the area if we see multiple days
of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong cold front is moving through
the area which will veer gusty winds to the northwest. MVFR
ceilings, possibly briefly IFR, will be common behind the front. A
brief period of light snow or flurries is also expected early in
the taf period. Ceilings are expected to scatter out late in the
taf period with diminishing winds.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KLSX 260321
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
921 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 901 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Snow was occurring across northeast MO and west central IL this
evening with about one half inch in Edina, MO to a dusting in UIN
so far. Surface low near AIZ will move southeastward through
southeast MO and weaken or fill later tonight. The latest NAM
model run depicts low level frontogenesis over the northern
portion of the forecast area weakening as it drops southward
through our area. Light snow should move into central MO late this
evening, then into the St Louis metro area shortly after midnight.
The most likely time for accumulating snow across southeast MO and
southwest IL, south and east of STL should occur Thursday morning.
It appears that total snow accumulations should range from around
3 inches in Edina, MO to around 1 inch in the St Louis metro area.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 302 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

A weakening clipper system will bring light snow to most of the
CWA tonight and tomorrow morning. This forecast package generally
followed model depictions of H9-H8 frontogenesis fields for timing
and placement of the highest PoPs, a change which delays pcpn
onset at most locations until after 26/00z and extends the
occurrence of light snowfall across the greater St. Louis metro
area through the Thursday morning commute. Accumulations of 1-3"
still look reasonable areawide with higher amounts (2-4") in
northeast MO and extreme west central IL, lower amounts (<1")
across southeastern MO and southwest IL, and about an inch around
the St. Louis metro area. Since drivers in the St. Louis metro
area normally have a difficult commute when light snow falls
during rush hour, we have issued an SPS to advise area residents
of tomorrow morning`s forecast.

We discussed whether to extend the existing Winter Weather
Advisory farther south and east to include the metro area between
09z-15z, but chose to hold off for now due to concerns that the
weakening clipper system might weaken even more than what is
currently forecast, which would leave very little (if any)
snowfall across the headline extension. The evening shift and mid
shift will re-evaluate the need for additional headlines based on
future trends.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

The clipper system will be followed by an Arctic high pressure
center which builds across the central CONUS on Thursday/Thursday
night. The coldest temps on Thursday night/early Friday morning
should occur across the northwestern CWA due to proximity to the
ridge axis along with the fresh snow cover. The high pressure
center then shifts eastward on Friday and Saturday. Return flow
begins on Saturday around the back side of the high pressure
center.

Kanofsky

Atmospheric responses to a large low pressure system over the
southwestern CONUS and a trough over the northern plains (strong
WAA and frontogenesis) could bring a wintry mix of all ptypes to
the area on Saturday night and then again for Monday through
Tuesday. but confidence in ptypes, timing, duration, amounts,
transitions, and PoPs remains very low. Kept likely PoPs on days 6
& 7 for collaboration with surrounding offices. Anyone who has
travel plans or other weather-dependent plans early next week are
advised to continue monitoring the forecast over the next few
days.

42

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 531 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Prev TAFs still appear to be on track. However, some minor changes
in timing were made given latest trends and mdl guidance. Still
expect winds to pick up behind the system with SN. Precip type may
briefly be IP at onset of precip due to wet bulb effects, but this
shud be very short lived before turning to all SN. Believe max SN
accumulations will be at UIN and STL metro sites. Check with the
latest public forecast for SN amounts.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR Knox MO-
     Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR Adams IL-
     Brown IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 260321
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
921 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 901 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Snow was occurring across northeast MO and west central IL this
evening with about one half inch in Edina, MO to a dusting in UIN
so far. Surface low near AIZ will move southeastward through
southeast MO and weaken or fill later tonight. The latest NAM
model run depicts low level frontogenesis over the northern
portion of the forecast area weakening as it drops southward
through our area. Light snow should move into central MO late this
evening, then into the St Louis metro area shortly after midnight.
The most likely time for accumulating snow across southeast MO and
southwest IL, south and east of STL should occur Thursday morning.
It appears that total snow accumulations should range from around
3 inches in Edina, MO to around 1 inch in the St Louis metro area.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 302 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

A weakening clipper system will bring light snow to most of the
CWA tonight and tomorrow morning. This forecast package generally
followed model depictions of H9-H8 frontogenesis fields for timing
and placement of the highest PoPs, a change which delays pcpn
onset at most locations until after 26/00z and extends the
occurrence of light snowfall across the greater St. Louis metro
area through the Thursday morning commute. Accumulations of 1-3"
still look reasonable areawide with higher amounts (2-4") in
northeast MO and extreme west central IL, lower amounts (<1")
across southeastern MO and southwest IL, and about an inch around
the St. Louis metro area. Since drivers in the St. Louis metro
area normally have a difficult commute when light snow falls
during rush hour, we have issued an SPS to advise area residents
of tomorrow morning`s forecast.

We discussed whether to extend the existing Winter Weather
Advisory farther south and east to include the metro area between
09z-15z, but chose to hold off for now due to concerns that the
weakening clipper system might weaken even more than what is
currently forecast, which would leave very little (if any)
snowfall across the headline extension. The evening shift and mid
shift will re-evaluate the need for additional headlines based on
future trends.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

The clipper system will be followed by an Arctic high pressure
center which builds across the central CONUS on Thursday/Thursday
night. The coldest temps on Thursday night/early Friday morning
should occur across the northwestern CWA due to proximity to the
ridge axis along with the fresh snow cover. The high pressure
center then shifts eastward on Friday and Saturday. Return flow
begins on Saturday around the back side of the high pressure
center.

Kanofsky

Atmospheric responses to a large low pressure system over the
southwestern CONUS and a trough over the northern plains (strong
WAA and frontogenesis) could bring a wintry mix of all ptypes to
the area on Saturday night and then again for Monday through
Tuesday. but confidence in ptypes, timing, duration, amounts,
transitions, and PoPs remains very low. Kept likely PoPs on days 6
& 7 for collaboration with surrounding offices. Anyone who has
travel plans or other weather-dependent plans early next week are
advised to continue monitoring the forecast over the next few
days.

42

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 531 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Prev TAFs still appear to be on track. However, some minor changes
in timing were made given latest trends and mdl guidance. Still
expect winds to pick up behind the system with SN. Precip type may
briefly be IP at onset of precip due to wet bulb effects, but this
shud be very short lived before turning to all SN. Believe max SN
accumulations will be at UIN and STL metro sites. Check with the
latest public forecast for SN amounts.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR Knox MO-
     Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR Adams IL-
     Brown IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 260005
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
605 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Surface low is just north of Maryville this afternoon with a strong
cold front trailing to the southwest. Surface low will track to near
Chillicothe around 6 PM...and to near Sedalia around 8 PM. Most
accumulating snow will stay just to the east of this track where 1"
to 3" will be the general rule. Can`t rule out a few amounts a bit
higher than this near and north of Kirksville, but with temperatures
having risen quite a bit warmer than was expected this afternoon,
snow that falls initially will have to battle some warmer ground
temperatures and may melt at first. With the track of the higher
amounts continuing to shift east, a few more counties over north
central MO were removed from the winter weather advisory. These
counties should see snow amounts of an inch or less.

Further south...still expect a band of light precipitation to trail
the front as it swings into eastern KS and western MO later this
evening. Rapid drop in temperatures behind the front should keep most
of this in the form of snow although some rain is still possible
initially. Snow should only last 2 or 3 hours at most for these areas and
will again have to battle warm ground temperatures, so any snowfall
amounts to the west of the surface low track should only be a few
tenths of an inch. This matches up with what was measured at NWS Omaha
where only 0.2" of snow was measured with this snow band.

Perhaps a bigger concern will be the rapid drop in temperatures
immediately following frontal passage. Some areas could fall from the
50s into the 20s in just a couple of hours, bringing flash-freeze
concerns to any areas that see rain or melting snow when precipitation
begins. This will be especially true across the advisory area where
more precipitation will fall, but could be a concern anywhere that
sees enough rain or melted snow to wet the ground. Will highlight
this concern with a special weather statement for any areas not in
the current advisory.

Behind this system the story turns to cold for Thursday and Friday.
1041 mb Arctic high building into the area will keep highs in the
teens for most areas both days. Nighttime temperatures will drop into
the single digits, and probably some sub-zero readings over any areas
with snow on the ground. May see wind chills dip into advisory
criteria (-15 F) over north central MO Thursday night.

Attention then turns to the increasing potential for a winter storm
over the weekend. GFS and ECMWF have been surprisingly consistent the
past few runs bringing quite a bit of accumulating snow across the
region Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Consensus of both models is to
bring warning-criteria snowfall, or 6"+, into much of the forecast
area with the highest values right along I-70. Despite this
consensus, major pattern shifts like this one almost always throw
high variability into medium range models, so that even higher-
than-normal model agreement such as this can quickly go away. With that
said, it`s still too early to start pinpointing precipitation amounts
or where the highest will fall, but confidence is increasing that
precipitation should stay mostly snow Saturday and Saturday night.

Forecast remains interesting into early next week with continued
upper-level troughing to our west. This should send one or two
additional rounds of precipitation into the region especially Monday
night and Tuesday. Precipitation type with this round is highly
uncertain with increasing signs that it could fall as a wintry mix or
even rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 600 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Cold front passing through the terminals as I type. Very strong and
gusty northwest winds through the night. Band of post frontal
rain and snow follows passage of front. Initially rain but quickly
changes to snow as temperatures fall dramatically, typically 15-20F
in around an hour of frontal passage. MVFR cigs also move in quickly
behind the front and will last through tomorrow morning. Cloud
bearing temperatures are cold enough to support flurries through the
night. Minor snow accumulations over western MO and eastern KS, less
than half an inch.

Expect VFR conditions by Thursday afternoon as MVFR cigs scatter out
but breezy conditions continue.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ005>008-
     015>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...MJ






000
FXUS63 KEAX 260005
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
605 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Surface low is just north of Maryville this afternoon with a strong
cold front trailing to the southwest. Surface low will track to near
Chillicothe around 6 PM...and to near Sedalia around 8 PM. Most
accumulating snow will stay just to the east of this track where 1"
to 3" will be the general rule. Can`t rule out a few amounts a bit
higher than this near and north of Kirksville, but with temperatures
having risen quite a bit warmer than was expected this afternoon,
snow that falls initially will have to battle some warmer ground
temperatures and may melt at first. With the track of the higher
amounts continuing to shift east, a few more counties over north
central MO were removed from the winter weather advisory. These
counties should see snow amounts of an inch or less.

Further south...still expect a band of light precipitation to trail
the front as it swings into eastern KS and western MO later this
evening. Rapid drop in temperatures behind the front should keep most
of this in the form of snow although some rain is still possible
initially. Snow should only last 2 or 3 hours at most for these areas and
will again have to battle warm ground temperatures, so any snowfall
amounts to the west of the surface low track should only be a few
tenths of an inch. This matches up with what was measured at NWS Omaha
where only 0.2" of snow was measured with this snow band.

Perhaps a bigger concern will be the rapid drop in temperatures
immediately following frontal passage. Some areas could fall from the
50s into the 20s in just a couple of hours, bringing flash-freeze
concerns to any areas that see rain or melting snow when precipitation
begins. This will be especially true across the advisory area where
more precipitation will fall, but could be a concern anywhere that
sees enough rain or melted snow to wet the ground. Will highlight
this concern with a special weather statement for any areas not in
the current advisory.

Behind this system the story turns to cold for Thursday and Friday.
1041 mb Arctic high building into the area will keep highs in the
teens for most areas both days. Nighttime temperatures will drop into
the single digits, and probably some sub-zero readings over any areas
with snow on the ground. May see wind chills dip into advisory
criteria (-15 F) over north central MO Thursday night.

Attention then turns to the increasing potential for a winter storm
over the weekend. GFS and ECMWF have been surprisingly consistent the
past few runs bringing quite a bit of accumulating snow across the
region Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Consensus of both models is to
bring warning-criteria snowfall, or 6"+, into much of the forecast
area with the highest values right along I-70. Despite this
consensus, major pattern shifts like this one almost always throw
high variability into medium range models, so that even higher-
than-normal model agreement such as this can quickly go away. With that
said, it`s still too early to start pinpointing precipitation amounts
or where the highest will fall, but confidence is increasing that
precipitation should stay mostly snow Saturday and Saturday night.

Forecast remains interesting into early next week with continued
upper-level troughing to our west. This should send one or two
additional rounds of precipitation into the region especially Monday
night and Tuesday. Precipitation type with this round is highly
uncertain with increasing signs that it could fall as a wintry mix or
even rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 600 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Cold front passing through the terminals as I type. Very strong and
gusty northwest winds through the night. Band of post frontal
rain and snow follows passage of front. Initially rain but quickly
changes to snow as temperatures fall dramatically, typically 15-20F
in around an hour of frontal passage. MVFR cigs also move in quickly
behind the front and will last through tomorrow morning. Cloud
bearing temperatures are cold enough to support flurries through the
night. Minor snow accumulations over western MO and eastern KS, less
than half an inch.

Expect VFR conditions by Thursday afternoon as MVFR cigs scatter out
but breezy conditions continue.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ005>008-
     015>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KEAX 260005
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
605 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Surface low is just north of Maryville this afternoon with a strong
cold front trailing to the southwest. Surface low will track to near
Chillicothe around 6 PM...and to near Sedalia around 8 PM. Most
accumulating snow will stay just to the east of this track where 1"
to 3" will be the general rule. Can`t rule out a few amounts a bit
higher than this near and north of Kirksville, but with temperatures
having risen quite a bit warmer than was expected this afternoon,
snow that falls initially will have to battle some warmer ground
temperatures and may melt at first. With the track of the higher
amounts continuing to shift east, a few more counties over north
central MO were removed from the winter weather advisory. These
counties should see snow amounts of an inch or less.

Further south...still expect a band of light precipitation to trail
the front as it swings into eastern KS and western MO later this
evening. Rapid drop in temperatures behind the front should keep most
of this in the form of snow although some rain is still possible
initially. Snow should only last 2 or 3 hours at most for these areas and
will again have to battle warm ground temperatures, so any snowfall
amounts to the west of the surface low track should only be a few
tenths of an inch. This matches up with what was measured at NWS Omaha
where only 0.2" of snow was measured with this snow band.

Perhaps a bigger concern will be the rapid drop in temperatures
immediately following frontal passage. Some areas could fall from the
50s into the 20s in just a couple of hours, bringing flash-freeze
concerns to any areas that see rain or melting snow when precipitation
begins. This will be especially true across the advisory area where
more precipitation will fall, but could be a concern anywhere that
sees enough rain or melted snow to wet the ground. Will highlight
this concern with a special weather statement for any areas not in
the current advisory.

Behind this system the story turns to cold for Thursday and Friday.
1041 mb Arctic high building into the area will keep highs in the
teens for most areas both days. Nighttime temperatures will drop into
the single digits, and probably some sub-zero readings over any areas
with snow on the ground. May see wind chills dip into advisory
criteria (-15 F) over north central MO Thursday night.

Attention then turns to the increasing potential for a winter storm
over the weekend. GFS and ECMWF have been surprisingly consistent the
past few runs bringing quite a bit of accumulating snow across the
region Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Consensus of both models is to
bring warning-criteria snowfall, or 6"+, into much of the forecast
area with the highest values right along I-70. Despite this
consensus, major pattern shifts like this one almost always throw
high variability into medium range models, so that even higher-
than-normal model agreement such as this can quickly go away. With that
said, it`s still too early to start pinpointing precipitation amounts
or where the highest will fall, but confidence is increasing that
precipitation should stay mostly snow Saturday and Saturday night.

Forecast remains interesting into early next week with continued
upper-level troughing to our west. This should send one or two
additional rounds of precipitation into the region especially Monday
night and Tuesday. Precipitation type with this round is highly
uncertain with increasing signs that it could fall as a wintry mix or
even rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 600 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Cold front passing through the terminals as I type. Very strong and
gusty northwest winds through the night. Band of post frontal
rain and snow follows passage of front. Initially rain but quickly
changes to snow as temperatures fall dramatically, typically 15-20F
in around an hour of frontal passage. MVFR cigs also move in quickly
behind the front and will last through tomorrow morning. Cloud
bearing temperatures are cold enough to support flurries through the
night. Minor snow accumulations over western MO and eastern KS, less
than half an inch.

Expect VFR conditions by Thursday afternoon as MVFR cigs scatter out
but breezy conditions continue.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ005>008-
     015>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...MJ






000
FXUS63 KSGF 252357
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
557 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 159 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

A clipper system is currently near Iowa and moving southeastward.
A strong cold front is currently near Topeka Kansas and quickly
moving southward. This front will sweep through the area late this
evening. A band of light precip will arrive with the
front and behind it...possibly starting out as a rain/snow mix and
end as light snow or flurries. The best potential for precip will
be from Nevada to Springfield to West Plains and north of that
line.

There will be some light snow accumulations of a dusting to up to
half an inch for areas of southwest Missouri. The best potential
for up to an inch of snow will be from Warsaw to Fort Leonard Wood
to Round Spring and north of that line into central Missouri.

Flurries will end from west to east during the midday hours on
Thursday. The bigger weather story for Thursday will be the return
of Arctic air along with gusty northwest winds up to 35 mph.
Daytime high temperatures will struggle to reach the middle to
upper 20s and wind chill values will be in the single digits to
just slightly below zero.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 159 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

The clipper type system will be exiting the region starting
Thursday evening. A few remaining flurries will remain possible
across the eastern Ozarks as an upper level short wave trough
tracks into northeastern Missouri. Otherwise, surface high
pressure will build south across the Dakotas and will usher in a
bitterly cold air mass. Lows will dip well down into the single
digits over most areas with wind chills below zero. Wind chills
could push advisory criteria (-10) across portions of the central
and eastern Ozarks by sunrise on Friday.

That surface high will then settle southeast towards the Ohio
Valley from Friday into Friday night. Chilly and dry conditions
will continue. This will be the most uneventful portion of the
medium to long range forecast.

The upper level flow will then back to west-southwesterly starting
Saturday. We are expecting a shield of precipitation to spread
from west to east across the area from later Saturday into
Saturday night as low level upglide kicks in. Indications are that
the precipitation will start off as snow. Models then bring a warm
nose into southern Missouri starting later Saturday night. This
will open the door to more of a wintry mix as we head towards
Sunday morning. While precipitation amounts do not look all that
impressive, it does appear that measurable snow and perhaps some
ice are becoming increasingly likely. It is then quite possible
that at least southern portions of the area warm up enough to
change over to rain later Sunday.

Global models then bring a temporary end to the precipitation
Sunday night and early Monday. Multiple upper level waves are
then forecast to come out of the southwestern U.S. as a positively
tilted upper level trough sets up from the northern Plains into
northern Mexico. This regime bodes well for a rather "wet" period
across the Ozarks from later Monday through the middle of next
week. Out that far, precipitation type is a very tough call.
Global models are currently depicting what would be a wintry mix
changing to rain event with even some thunder possible. However, a
few slight changes to the synoptic scale pattern could tilt the
tables in favor of a more wintry scenario. Regardless, we will
also have to watch hydro across the area if we see multiple days
of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 548 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong cold front will move
southeast through the taf site region toward the 03z-09z time
frame. VFR conditions are expected ahead of and near the front, but
lower mvfr potentially brief ifr post frontal ceilings are
expected with gusty nw winds. A brief period of light snow is
expected with somewhat higher potential at KSGF versus the other
sites.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 252357
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
557 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 159 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

A clipper system is currently near Iowa and moving southeastward.
A strong cold front is currently near Topeka Kansas and quickly
moving southward. This front will sweep through the area late this
evening. A band of light precip will arrive with the
front and behind it...possibly starting out as a rain/snow mix and
end as light snow or flurries. The best potential for precip will
be from Nevada to Springfield to West Plains and north of that
line.

There will be some light snow accumulations of a dusting to up to
half an inch for areas of southwest Missouri. The best potential
for up to an inch of snow will be from Warsaw to Fort Leonard Wood
to Round Spring and north of that line into central Missouri.

Flurries will end from west to east during the midday hours on
Thursday. The bigger weather story for Thursday will be the return
of Arctic air along with gusty northwest winds up to 35 mph.
Daytime high temperatures will struggle to reach the middle to
upper 20s and wind chill values will be in the single digits to
just slightly below zero.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 159 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

The clipper type system will be exiting the region starting
Thursday evening. A few remaining flurries will remain possible
across the eastern Ozarks as an upper level short wave trough
tracks into northeastern Missouri. Otherwise, surface high
pressure will build south across the Dakotas and will usher in a
bitterly cold air mass. Lows will dip well down into the single
digits over most areas with wind chills below zero. Wind chills
could push advisory criteria (-10) across portions of the central
and eastern Ozarks by sunrise on Friday.

That surface high will then settle southeast towards the Ohio
Valley from Friday into Friday night. Chilly and dry conditions
will continue. This will be the most uneventful portion of the
medium to long range forecast.

The upper level flow will then back to west-southwesterly starting
Saturday. We are expecting a shield of precipitation to spread
from west to east across the area from later Saturday into
Saturday night as low level upglide kicks in. Indications are that
the precipitation will start off as snow. Models then bring a warm
nose into southern Missouri starting later Saturday night. This
will open the door to more of a wintry mix as we head towards
Sunday morning. While precipitation amounts do not look all that
impressive, it does appear that measurable snow and perhaps some
ice are becoming increasingly likely. It is then quite possible
that at least southern portions of the area warm up enough to
change over to rain later Sunday.

Global models then bring a temporary end to the precipitation
Sunday night and early Monday. Multiple upper level waves are
then forecast to come out of the southwestern U.S. as a positively
tilted upper level trough sets up from the northern Plains into
northern Mexico. This regime bodes well for a rather "wet" period
across the Ozarks from later Monday through the middle of next
week. Out that far, precipitation type is a very tough call.
Global models are currently depicting what would be a wintry mix
changing to rain event with even some thunder possible. However, a
few slight changes to the synoptic scale pattern could tilt the
tables in favor of a more wintry scenario. Regardless, we will
also have to watch hydro across the area if we see multiple days
of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 548 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong cold front will move
southeast through the taf site region toward the 03z-09z time
frame. VFR conditions are expected ahead of and near the front, but
lower mvfr potentially brief ifr post frontal ceilings are
expected with gusty nw winds. A brief period of light snow is
expected with somewhat higher potential at KSGF versus the other
sites.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KSGF 252357
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
557 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 159 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

A clipper system is currently near Iowa and moving southeastward.
A strong cold front is currently near Topeka Kansas and quickly
moving southward. This front will sweep through the area late this
evening. A band of light precip will arrive with the
front and behind it...possibly starting out as a rain/snow mix and
end as light snow or flurries. The best potential for precip will
be from Nevada to Springfield to West Plains and north of that
line.

There will be some light snow accumulations of a dusting to up to
half an inch for areas of southwest Missouri. The best potential
for up to an inch of snow will be from Warsaw to Fort Leonard Wood
to Round Spring and north of that line into central Missouri.

Flurries will end from west to east during the midday hours on
Thursday. The bigger weather story for Thursday will be the return
of Arctic air along with gusty northwest winds up to 35 mph.
Daytime high temperatures will struggle to reach the middle to
upper 20s and wind chill values will be in the single digits to
just slightly below zero.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 159 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

The clipper type system will be exiting the region starting
Thursday evening. A few remaining flurries will remain possible
across the eastern Ozarks as an upper level short wave trough
tracks into northeastern Missouri. Otherwise, surface high
pressure will build south across the Dakotas and will usher in a
bitterly cold air mass. Lows will dip well down into the single
digits over most areas with wind chills below zero. Wind chills
could push advisory criteria (-10) across portions of the central
and eastern Ozarks by sunrise on Friday.

That surface high will then settle southeast towards the Ohio
Valley from Friday into Friday night. Chilly and dry conditions
will continue. This will be the most uneventful portion of the
medium to long range forecast.

The upper level flow will then back to west-southwesterly starting
Saturday. We are expecting a shield of precipitation to spread
from west to east across the area from later Saturday into
Saturday night as low level upglide kicks in. Indications are that
the precipitation will start off as snow. Models then bring a warm
nose into southern Missouri starting later Saturday night. This
will open the door to more of a wintry mix as we head towards
Sunday morning. While precipitation amounts do not look all that
impressive, it does appear that measurable snow and perhaps some
ice are becoming increasingly likely. It is then quite possible
that at least southern portions of the area warm up enough to
change over to rain later Sunday.

Global models then bring a temporary end to the precipitation
Sunday night and early Monday. Multiple upper level waves are
then forecast to come out of the southwestern U.S. as a positively
tilted upper level trough sets up from the northern Plains into
northern Mexico. This regime bodes well for a rather "wet" period
across the Ozarks from later Monday through the middle of next
week. Out that far, precipitation type is a very tough call.
Global models are currently depicting what would be a wintry mix
changing to rain event with even some thunder possible. However, a
few slight changes to the synoptic scale pattern could tilt the
tables in favor of a more wintry scenario. Regardless, we will
also have to watch hydro across the area if we see multiple days
of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 548 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong cold front will move
southeast through the taf site region toward the 03z-09z time
frame. VFR conditions are expected ahead of and near the front, but
lower mvfr potentially brief ifr post frontal ceilings are
expected with gusty nw winds. A brief period of light snow is
expected with somewhat higher potential at KSGF versus the other
sites.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KLSX 252353
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
553 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 302 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

A weakening clipper system will bring light snow to most of the
CWA tonight and tomorrow morning. This forecast package generally
followed model depictions of H9-H8 frontogenesis fields for timing
and placement of the highest PoPs, a change which delays pcpn
onset at most locations until after 26/00z and extends the
occurrence of light snowfall across the greater St. Louis metro
area through the Thursday morning commute. Accumulations of 1-3"
still look reasonable areawide with higher amounts (2-4") in
northeast MO and extreme west central IL, lower amounts (<1")
across southeastern MO and southwest IL, and about an inch around
the St. Louis metro area. Since drivers in the St. Louis metro
area normally have a difficult commute when light snow falls
during rush hour, we have issued an SPS to advise area residents
of tomorrow morning`s forecast.

We discussed whether to extend the existing Winter Weather
Advisory farther south and east to include the metro area between
09z-15z, but chose to hold off for now due to concerns that the
weakening clipper system might weaken even more than what is
currently forecast, which would leave very little (if any)
snowfall across the headline extension. The evening shift and mid
shift will re-evaluate the need for additional headlines based on
future trends.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

The clipper system will be followed by an Arctic high pressure
center which builds across the central CONUS on Thursday/Thursday
night. The coldest temps on Thursday night/early Friday morning
should occur across the northwestern CWA due to proximity to the
ridge axis along with the fresh snow cover. The high pressure
center then shifts eastward on Friday and Saturday. Return flow
begins on Saturday around the back side of the high pressure
center.

Kanofsky

Atmospheric responses to a large low pressure system over the
southwestern CONUS and a trough over the northern plains (strong
WAA and frontogenesis) could bring a wintry mix of all ptypes to
the area on Saturday night and then again for Monday through
Tuesday. but confidence in ptypes, timing, duration, amounts,
transitions, and PoPs remains very low. Kept likely PoPs on days 6
& 7 for collaboration with surrounding offices. Anyone who has
travel plans or other weather-dependent plans early next week are
advised to continue monitoring the forecast over the next few
days.

42

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 531 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Prev TAFs still appear to be on track. However, some minor changes
in timing were made given latest trends and mdl guidance. Still
expect winds to pick up behind the system with SN. Precip type may
briefly be IP at onset of precip due to wet bulb effects, but this
shud be very short lived before turning to all SN. Believe max SN
accumulations will be at UIN and STL metro sites. Check with the
latest public forecast for SN amounts.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR Knox MO-
     Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR Adams IL-
     Brown IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 252353
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
553 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 302 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

A weakening clipper system will bring light snow to most of the
CWA tonight and tomorrow morning. This forecast package generally
followed model depictions of H9-H8 frontogenesis fields for timing
and placement of the highest PoPs, a change which delays pcpn
onset at most locations until after 26/00z and extends the
occurrence of light snowfall across the greater St. Louis metro
area through the Thursday morning commute. Accumulations of 1-3"
still look reasonable areawide with higher amounts (2-4") in
northeast MO and extreme west central IL, lower amounts (<1")
across southeastern MO and southwest IL, and about an inch around
the St. Louis metro area. Since drivers in the St. Louis metro
area normally have a difficult commute when light snow falls
during rush hour, we have issued an SPS to advise area residents
of tomorrow morning`s forecast.

We discussed whether to extend the existing Winter Weather
Advisory farther south and east to include the metro area between
09z-15z, but chose to hold off for now due to concerns that the
weakening clipper system might weaken even more than what is
currently forecast, which would leave very little (if any)
snowfall across the headline extension. The evening shift and mid
shift will re-evaluate the need for additional headlines based on
future trends.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

The clipper system will be followed by an Arctic high pressure
center which builds across the central CONUS on Thursday/Thursday
night. The coldest temps on Thursday night/early Friday morning
should occur across the northwestern CWA due to proximity to the
ridge axis along with the fresh snow cover. The high pressure
center then shifts eastward on Friday and Saturday. Return flow
begins on Saturday around the back side of the high pressure
center.

Kanofsky

Atmospheric responses to a large low pressure system over the
southwestern CONUS and a trough over the northern plains (strong
WAA and frontogenesis) could bring a wintry mix of all ptypes to
the area on Saturday night and then again for Monday through
Tuesday. but confidence in ptypes, timing, duration, amounts,
transitions, and PoPs remains very low. Kept likely PoPs on days 6
& 7 for collaboration with surrounding offices. Anyone who has
travel plans or other weather-dependent plans early next week are
advised to continue monitoring the forecast over the next few
days.

42

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 531 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Prev TAFs still appear to be on track. However, some minor changes
in timing were made given latest trends and mdl guidance. Still
expect winds to pick up behind the system with SN. Precip type may
briefly be IP at onset of precip due to wet bulb effects, but this
shud be very short lived before turning to all SN. Believe max SN
accumulations will be at UIN and STL metro sites. Check with the
latest public forecast for SN amounts.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR Knox MO-
     Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR Adams IL-
     Brown IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 252353
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
553 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 302 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

A weakening clipper system will bring light snow to most of the
CWA tonight and tomorrow morning. This forecast package generally
followed model depictions of H9-H8 frontogenesis fields for timing
and placement of the highest PoPs, a change which delays pcpn
onset at most locations until after 26/00z and extends the
occurrence of light snowfall across the greater St. Louis metro
area through the Thursday morning commute. Accumulations of 1-3"
still look reasonable areawide with higher amounts (2-4") in
northeast MO and extreme west central IL, lower amounts (<1")
across southeastern MO and southwest IL, and about an inch around
the St. Louis metro area. Since drivers in the St. Louis metro
area normally have a difficult commute when light snow falls
during rush hour, we have issued an SPS to advise area residents
of tomorrow morning`s forecast.

We discussed whether to extend the existing Winter Weather
Advisory farther south and east to include the metro area between
09z-15z, but chose to hold off for now due to concerns that the
weakening clipper system might weaken even more than what is
currently forecast, which would leave very little (if any)
snowfall across the headline extension. The evening shift and mid
shift will re-evaluate the need for additional headlines based on
future trends.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

The clipper system will be followed by an Arctic high pressure
center which builds across the central CONUS on Thursday/Thursday
night. The coldest temps on Thursday night/early Friday morning
should occur across the northwestern CWA due to proximity to the
ridge axis along with the fresh snow cover. The high pressure
center then shifts eastward on Friday and Saturday. Return flow
begins on Saturday around the back side of the high pressure
center.

Kanofsky

Atmospheric responses to a large low pressure system over the
southwestern CONUS and a trough over the northern plains (strong
WAA and frontogenesis) could bring a wintry mix of all ptypes to
the area on Saturday night and then again for Monday through
Tuesday. but confidence in ptypes, timing, duration, amounts,
transitions, and PoPs remains very low. Kept likely PoPs on days 6
& 7 for collaboration with surrounding offices. Anyone who has
travel plans or other weather-dependent plans early next week are
advised to continue monitoring the forecast over the next few
days.

42

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 531 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Prev TAFs still appear to be on track. However, some minor changes
in timing were made given latest trends and mdl guidance. Still
expect winds to pick up behind the system with SN. Precip type may
briefly be IP at onset of precip due to wet bulb effects, but this
shud be very short lived before turning to all SN. Believe max SN
accumulations will be at UIN and STL metro sites. Check with the
latest public forecast for SN amounts.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR Knox MO-
     Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR Adams IL-
     Brown IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 252353
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
553 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 302 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

A weakening clipper system will bring light snow to most of the
CWA tonight and tomorrow morning. This forecast package generally
followed model depictions of H9-H8 frontogenesis fields for timing
and placement of the highest PoPs, a change which delays pcpn
onset at most locations until after 26/00z and extends the
occurrence of light snowfall across the greater St. Louis metro
area through the Thursday morning commute. Accumulations of 1-3"
still look reasonable areawide with higher amounts (2-4") in
northeast MO and extreme west central IL, lower amounts (<1")
across southeastern MO and southwest IL, and about an inch around
the St. Louis metro area. Since drivers in the St. Louis metro
area normally have a difficult commute when light snow falls
during rush hour, we have issued an SPS to advise area residents
of tomorrow morning`s forecast.

We discussed whether to extend the existing Winter Weather
Advisory farther south and east to include the metro area between
09z-15z, but chose to hold off for now due to concerns that the
weakening clipper system might weaken even more than what is
currently forecast, which would leave very little (if any)
snowfall across the headline extension. The evening shift and mid
shift will re-evaluate the need for additional headlines based on
future trends.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

The clipper system will be followed by an Arctic high pressure
center which builds across the central CONUS on Thursday/Thursday
night. The coldest temps on Thursday night/early Friday morning
should occur across the northwestern CWA due to proximity to the
ridge axis along with the fresh snow cover. The high pressure
center then shifts eastward on Friday and Saturday. Return flow
begins on Saturday around the back side of the high pressure
center.

Kanofsky

Atmospheric responses to a large low pressure system over the
southwestern CONUS and a trough over the northern plains (strong
WAA and frontogenesis) could bring a wintry mix of all ptypes to
the area on Saturday night and then again for Monday through
Tuesday. but confidence in ptypes, timing, duration, amounts,
transitions, and PoPs remains very low. Kept likely PoPs on days 6
& 7 for collaboration with surrounding offices. Anyone who has
travel plans or other weather-dependent plans early next week are
advised to continue monitoring the forecast over the next few
days.

42

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 531 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Prev TAFs still appear to be on track. However, some minor changes
in timing were made given latest trends and mdl guidance. Still
expect winds to pick up behind the system with SN. Precip type may
briefly be IP at onset of precip due to wet bulb effects, but this
shud be very short lived before turning to all SN. Believe max SN
accumulations will be at UIN and STL metro sites. Check with the
latest public forecast for SN amounts.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR Knox MO-
     Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR Adams IL-
     Brown IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 252134
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
334 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Surface low is just north of Maryville this afternoon with a strong
cold front trailing to the southwest. Surface low will track to near
Chillicothe around 6 PM...and to near Sedalia around 8 PM. Most
accumulating snow will stay just to the east of this track where 1"
to 3" will be the general rule. Can`t rule out a few amounts a bit
higher than this near and north of Kirksville, but with temperatures
having risen quite a bit warmer than was expected this afternoon,
snow that falls initially will have to battle some warmer ground
temperatures and may melt at first. With the track of the higher
amounts continuing to shift east, a few more counties over north
central MO were removed from the winter weather advisory. These
counties should see snow amounts of an inch or less.

Further south...still expect a band of light precipitation to trail
the front as it swings into eastern KS and western MO later this
evening. Rapid drop in temperatures behind the front should keep most
of this in the form of snow although some rain is still possible
initially. Snow should only last 2 or 3 hours at most for these areas and
will again have to battle warm ground temperatures, so any snowfall
amounts to the west of the surface low track should only be a few
tenths of an inch. This matches up with what was measured at NWS Omaha
where only 0.2" of snow was measured with this snow band.

Perhaps a bigger concern will be the rapid drop in temperatures
immediately following frontal passage. Some areas could fall from the
50s into the 20s in just a couple of hours, bringing flash-freeze
concerns to any areas that see rain or melting snow when precipitation
begins. This will be especially true across the advisory area where
more precipitation will fall, but could be a concern anywhere that
sees enough rain or melted snow to wet the ground. Will highlight
this concern with a special weather statement for any areas not in
the current advisory.

Behind this system the story turns to cold for Thursday and Friday.
1041 mb Arctic high building into the area will keep highs in the
teens for most areas both days. Nighttime temperatures will drop into
the single digits, and probably some sub-zero readings over any areas
with snow on the ground. May see wind chills dip into advisory
criteria (-15 F) over north central MO Thursday night.

Attention then turns to the increasing potential for a winter storm
over the weekend. GFS and ECMWF have been surprisingly consistent the
past few runs bringing quite a bit of accumulating snow across the
region Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Consensus of both models is to
bring warning-criteria snowfall, or 6"+, into much of the forecast
area with the highest values right along I-70. Despite this
consensus, major pattern shifts like this one almost always throw
high variability into medium range models, so that even higher-
than-normal model agreement such as this can quickly go away. With that
said, it`s still too early to start pinpointing precipitation amounts
or where the highest will fall, but confidence is increasing that
precipitation should stay mostly snow Saturday and Saturday night.

Forecast remains interesting into early next week with continued
upper-level troughing to our west. This should send one or two
additional rounds of precipitation into the region especially Monday
night and Tuesday. Precipitation type with this round is highly
uncertain with increasing signs that it could fall as a wintry mix or
even rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Strong cold front will drop through the region early this evening with
an area of rain/snow spreading into northern Missouri behind it. Most
accumulating snow will stay well to the northeast of the KC area,
mainly affecting CDJ and IRK areas, possibly down to DMO. For the STJ
and KC areas, a few rain/snow showers are possible for a few hours
behind the front but any snow accumulations will be under a half inch
with minimal impacts to air operations, although a rapid drop in
temperatures could freeze any water on runways. The bigger concern
will be the winds which may occasionally gust higher than 35 kt.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ005>008-
     015>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hawblitzel
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel






000
FXUS63 KEAX 252134
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
334 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Surface low is just north of Maryville this afternoon with a strong
cold front trailing to the southwest. Surface low will track to near
Chillicothe around 6 PM...and to near Sedalia around 8 PM. Most
accumulating snow will stay just to the east of this track where 1"
to 3" will be the general rule. Can`t rule out a few amounts a bit
higher than this near and north of Kirksville, but with temperatures
having risen quite a bit warmer than was expected this afternoon,
snow that falls initially will have to battle some warmer ground
temperatures and may melt at first. With the track of the higher
amounts continuing to shift east, a few more counties over north
central MO were removed from the winter weather advisory. These
counties should see snow amounts of an inch or less.

Further south...still expect a band of light precipitation to trail
the front as it swings into eastern KS and western MO later this
evening. Rapid drop in temperatures behind the front should keep most
of this in the form of snow although some rain is still possible
initially. Snow should only last 2 or 3 hours at most for these areas and
will again have to battle warm ground temperatures, so any snowfall
amounts to the west of the surface low track should only be a few
tenths of an inch. This matches up with what was measured at NWS Omaha
where only 0.2" of snow was measured with this snow band.

Perhaps a bigger concern will be the rapid drop in temperatures
immediately following frontal passage. Some areas could fall from the
50s into the 20s in just a couple of hours, bringing flash-freeze
concerns to any areas that see rain or melting snow when precipitation
begins. This will be especially true across the advisory area where
more precipitation will fall, but could be a concern anywhere that
sees enough rain or melted snow to wet the ground. Will highlight
this concern with a special weather statement for any areas not in
the current advisory.

Behind this system the story turns to cold for Thursday and Friday.
1041 mb Arctic high building into the area will keep highs in the
teens for most areas both days. Nighttime temperatures will drop into
the single digits, and probably some sub-zero readings over any areas
with snow on the ground. May see wind chills dip into advisory
criteria (-15 F) over north central MO Thursday night.

Attention then turns to the increasing potential for a winter storm
over the weekend. GFS and ECMWF have been surprisingly consistent the
past few runs bringing quite a bit of accumulating snow across the
region Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Consensus of both models is to
bring warning-criteria snowfall, or 6"+, into much of the forecast
area with the highest values right along I-70. Despite this
consensus, major pattern shifts like this one almost always throw
high variability into medium range models, so that even higher-
than-normal model agreement such as this can quickly go away. With that
said, it`s still too early to start pinpointing precipitation amounts
or where the highest will fall, but confidence is increasing that
precipitation should stay mostly snow Saturday and Saturday night.

Forecast remains interesting into early next week with continued
upper-level troughing to our west. This should send one or two
additional rounds of precipitation into the region especially Monday
night and Tuesday. Precipitation type with this round is highly
uncertain with increasing signs that it could fall as a wintry mix or
even rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Strong cold front will drop through the region early this evening with
an area of rain/snow spreading into northern Missouri behind it. Most
accumulating snow will stay well to the northeast of the KC area,
mainly affecting CDJ and IRK areas, possibly down to DMO. For the STJ
and KC areas, a few rain/snow showers are possible for a few hours
behind the front but any snow accumulations will be under a half inch
with minimal impacts to air operations, although a rapid drop in
temperatures could freeze any water on runways. The bigger concern
will be the winds which may occasionally gust higher than 35 kt.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ005>008-
     015>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hawblitzel
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 252134
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
334 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Surface low is just north of Maryville this afternoon with a strong
cold front trailing to the southwest. Surface low will track to near
Chillicothe around 6 PM...and to near Sedalia around 8 PM. Most
accumulating snow will stay just to the east of this track where 1"
to 3" will be the general rule. Can`t rule out a few amounts a bit
higher than this near and north of Kirksville, but with temperatures
having risen quite a bit warmer than was expected this afternoon,
snow that falls initially will have to battle some warmer ground
temperatures and may melt at first. With the track of the higher
amounts continuing to shift east, a few more counties over north
central MO were removed from the winter weather advisory. These
counties should see snow amounts of an inch or less.

Further south...still expect a band of light precipitation to trail
the front as it swings into eastern KS and western MO later this
evening. Rapid drop in temperatures behind the front should keep most
of this in the form of snow although some rain is still possible
initially. Snow should only last 2 or 3 hours at most for these areas and
will again have to battle warm ground temperatures, so any snowfall
amounts to the west of the surface low track should only be a few
tenths of an inch. This matches up with what was measured at NWS Omaha
where only 0.2" of snow was measured with this snow band.

Perhaps a bigger concern will be the rapid drop in temperatures
immediately following frontal passage. Some areas could fall from the
50s into the 20s in just a couple of hours, bringing flash-freeze
concerns to any areas that see rain or melting snow when precipitation
begins. This will be especially true across the advisory area where
more precipitation will fall, but could be a concern anywhere that
sees enough rain or melted snow to wet the ground. Will highlight
this concern with a special weather statement for any areas not in
the current advisory.

Behind this system the story turns to cold for Thursday and Friday.
1041 mb Arctic high building into the area will keep highs in the
teens for most areas both days. Nighttime temperatures will drop into
the single digits, and probably some sub-zero readings over any areas
with snow on the ground. May see wind chills dip into advisory
criteria (-15 F) over north central MO Thursday night.

Attention then turns to the increasing potential for a winter storm
over the weekend. GFS and ECMWF have been surprisingly consistent the
past few runs bringing quite a bit of accumulating snow across the
region Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Consensus of both models is to
bring warning-criteria snowfall, or 6"+, into much of the forecast
area with the highest values right along I-70. Despite this
consensus, major pattern shifts like this one almost always throw
high variability into medium range models, so that even higher-
than-normal model agreement such as this can quickly go away. With that
said, it`s still too early to start pinpointing precipitation amounts
or where the highest will fall, but confidence is increasing that
precipitation should stay mostly snow Saturday and Saturday night.

Forecast remains interesting into early next week with continued
upper-level troughing to our west. This should send one or two
additional rounds of precipitation into the region especially Monday
night and Tuesday. Precipitation type with this round is highly
uncertain with increasing signs that it could fall as a wintry mix or
even rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Strong cold front will drop through the region early this evening with
an area of rain/snow spreading into northern Missouri behind it. Most
accumulating snow will stay well to the northeast of the KC area,
mainly affecting CDJ and IRK areas, possibly down to DMO. For the STJ
and KC areas, a few rain/snow showers are possible for a few hours
behind the front but any snow accumulations will be under a half inch
with minimal impacts to air operations, although a rapid drop in
temperatures could freeze any water on runways. The bigger concern
will be the winds which may occasionally gust higher than 35 kt.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ005>008-
     015>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hawblitzel
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel






000
FXUS63 KLSX 252120
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
320 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 302 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

A weakening clipper system will bring light snow to most of the
CWA tonight and tomorrow morning. This forecast package generally
followed model depictions of H9-H8 frontogenesis fields for timing
and placement of the highest PoPs, a change which delays pcpn
onset at most locations until after 26/00z and extends the
occurrence of light snowfall across the greater St. Louis metro
area through the Thursday morning commute. Accumulations of 1-3"
still look reasonable areawide with higher amounts (2-4") in
northeast MO and extreme west central IL, lower amounts (<1")
across southeastern MO and southwest IL, and about an inch around
the St. Louis metro area. Since drivers in the St. Louis metro
area normally have a difficult commute when light snow falls
during rush hour, we have issued an SPS to advise area residents
of tomorrow morning`s forecast.

We discussed whether to extend the existing Winter Weather
Advisory farther south and east to include the metro area between
09z-15z, but chose to hold off for now due to concerns that the
weakening clipper system might weaken even more than what is
currently forecast, which would leave very little (if any)
snowfall across the headline extension. The evening shift and mid
shift will re-evaluate the need for additional headlines based on
future trends.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

The clipper system will be followed by an Arctic high pressure
center which builds across the central CONUS on Thursday/Thursday
night. The coldest temps on Thursday night/early Friday morning
should occur across the northwestern CWA due to proximity to the
ridge axis along with the fresh snow cover. The high pressure
center then shifts eastward on Friday and Saturday. Return flow
begins on Saturday around the back side of the high pressure
center.

Kanofsky

Atmospheric responses to a large low pressure system over the
southwestern CONUS and a trough over the northern plains (strong
WAA and frontogenesis) could bring a wintry mix of all ptypes to
the area on Saturday night and then again for Monday through
Tuesday. but confidence in ptypes, timing, duration, amounts,
transitions, and PoPs remains very low. Kept likely PoPs on days 6
& 7 for collaboration with surrounding offices. Anyone who has
travel plans or other weather-dependent plans early next week are
advised to continue monitoring the forecast over the next few
days.

42

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Surface low pressure system will move from southwest Iowa to south
east Missouri over the next 24 hours, bringing a round of snow to
the region and another arctic blast from the north. Timing of
precipitation continues to slip as the system is relatively slow
for a clipper. Appears snow will finally move into northern
Missouri and west central Illinois shortly after 00Z and then
spread south across the eastern half of Missouri and western
Illinois overnight into Thursday morning. Total accumulation will
range from less than an inch south of St. Louis to as much as 3 or
4 inches across far northeast Missouri. A southeast wind ahead of
the low pressure system will become northwest in its wake and
increase as colder air spills into the Midwest. Expect VFR
conditions to quickly deteriorate to IFR as snow begins and only
improve after the snow diminishes Thursday morning from north to
south.

Specifics for KSTL:
VFR conditions are expected until overnight when snow arrives from
the north. Conditions will quickly go down to IFR levels and
likely stay there through mid morning on Thursday. Snow will
diminish Thursday afternoon to flurries and northwest wind will
increase and become gusty. Total accumulation of 1 to 2 inches is
expected at this time at KSTL.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR Knox MO-
     Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR Adams IL-
     Brown IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 252120
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
320 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 302 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

A weakening clipper system will bring light snow to most of the
CWA tonight and tomorrow morning. This forecast package generally
followed model depictions of H9-H8 frontogenesis fields for timing
and placement of the highest PoPs, a change which delays pcpn
onset at most locations until after 26/00z and extends the
occurrence of light snowfall across the greater St. Louis metro
area through the Thursday morning commute. Accumulations of 1-3"
still look reasonable areawide with higher amounts (2-4") in
northeast MO and extreme west central IL, lower amounts (<1")
across southeastern MO and southwest IL, and about an inch around
the St. Louis metro area. Since drivers in the St. Louis metro
area normally have a difficult commute when light snow falls
during rush hour, we have issued an SPS to advise area residents
of tomorrow morning`s forecast.

We discussed whether to extend the existing Winter Weather
Advisory farther south and east to include the metro area between
09z-15z, but chose to hold off for now due to concerns that the
weakening clipper system might weaken even more than what is
currently forecast, which would leave very little (if any)
snowfall across the headline extension. The evening shift and mid
shift will re-evaluate the need for additional headlines based on
future trends.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

The clipper system will be followed by an Arctic high pressure
center which builds across the central CONUS on Thursday/Thursday
night. The coldest temps on Thursday night/early Friday morning
should occur across the northwestern CWA due to proximity to the
ridge axis along with the fresh snow cover. The high pressure
center then shifts eastward on Friday and Saturday. Return flow
begins on Saturday around the back side of the high pressure
center.

Kanofsky

Atmospheric responses to a large low pressure system over the
southwestern CONUS and a trough over the northern plains (strong
WAA and frontogenesis) could bring a wintry mix of all ptypes to
the area on Saturday night and then again for Monday through
Tuesday. but confidence in ptypes, timing, duration, amounts,
transitions, and PoPs remains very low. Kept likely PoPs on days 6
& 7 for collaboration with surrounding offices. Anyone who has
travel plans or other weather-dependent plans early next week are
advised to continue monitoring the forecast over the next few
days.

42

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Surface low pressure system will move from southwest Iowa to south
east Missouri over the next 24 hours, bringing a round of snow to
the region and another arctic blast from the north. Timing of
precipitation continues to slip as the system is relatively slow
for a clipper. Appears snow will finally move into northern
Missouri and west central Illinois shortly after 00Z and then
spread south across the eastern half of Missouri and western
Illinois overnight into Thursday morning. Total accumulation will
range from less than an inch south of St. Louis to as much as 3 or
4 inches across far northeast Missouri. A southeast wind ahead of
the low pressure system will become northwest in its wake and
increase as colder air spills into the Midwest. Expect VFR
conditions to quickly deteriorate to IFR as snow begins and only
improve after the snow diminishes Thursday morning from north to
south.

Specifics for KSTL:
VFR conditions are expected until overnight when snow arrives from
the north. Conditions will quickly go down to IFR levels and
likely stay there through mid morning on Thursday. Snow will
diminish Thursday afternoon to flurries and northwest wind will
increase and become gusty. Total accumulation of 1 to 2 inches is
expected at this time at KSTL.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR Knox MO-
     Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR Adams IL-
     Brown IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 252120
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
320 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 302 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

A weakening clipper system will bring light snow to most of the
CWA tonight and tomorrow morning. This forecast package generally
followed model depictions of H9-H8 frontogenesis fields for timing
and placement of the highest PoPs, a change which delays pcpn
onset at most locations until after 26/00z and extends the
occurrence of light snowfall across the greater St. Louis metro
area through the Thursday morning commute. Accumulations of 1-3"
still look reasonable areawide with higher amounts (2-4") in
northeast MO and extreme west central IL, lower amounts (<1")
across southeastern MO and southwest IL, and about an inch around
the St. Louis metro area. Since drivers in the St. Louis metro
area normally have a difficult commute when light snow falls
during rush hour, we have issued an SPS to advise area residents
of tomorrow morning`s forecast.

We discussed whether to extend the existing Winter Weather
Advisory farther south and east to include the metro area between
09z-15z, but chose to hold off for now due to concerns that the
weakening clipper system might weaken even more than what is
currently forecast, which would leave very little (if any)
snowfall across the headline extension. The evening shift and mid
shift will re-evaluate the need for additional headlines based on
future trends.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

The clipper system will be followed by an Arctic high pressure
center which builds across the central CONUS on Thursday/Thursday
night. The coldest temps on Thursday night/early Friday morning
should occur across the northwestern CWA due to proximity to the
ridge axis along with the fresh snow cover. The high pressure
center then shifts eastward on Friday and Saturday. Return flow
begins on Saturday around the back side of the high pressure
center.

Kanofsky

Atmospheric responses to a large low pressure system over the
southwestern CONUS and a trough over the northern plains (strong
WAA and frontogenesis) could bring a wintry mix of all ptypes to
the area on Saturday night and then again for Monday through
Tuesday. but confidence in ptypes, timing, duration, amounts,
transitions, and PoPs remains very low. Kept likely PoPs on days 6
& 7 for collaboration with surrounding offices. Anyone who has
travel plans or other weather-dependent plans early next week are
advised to continue monitoring the forecast over the next few
days.

42

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Surface low pressure system will move from southwest Iowa to south
east Missouri over the next 24 hours, bringing a round of snow to
the region and another arctic blast from the north. Timing of
precipitation continues to slip as the system is relatively slow
for a clipper. Appears snow will finally move into northern
Missouri and west central Illinois shortly after 00Z and then
spread south across the eastern half of Missouri and western
Illinois overnight into Thursday morning. Total accumulation will
range from less than an inch south of St. Louis to as much as 3 or
4 inches across far northeast Missouri. A southeast wind ahead of
the low pressure system will become northwest in its wake and
increase as colder air spills into the Midwest. Expect VFR
conditions to quickly deteriorate to IFR as snow begins and only
improve after the snow diminishes Thursday morning from north to
south.

Specifics for KSTL:
VFR conditions are expected until overnight when snow arrives from
the north. Conditions will quickly go down to IFR levels and
likely stay there through mid morning on Thursday. Snow will
diminish Thursday afternoon to flurries and northwest wind will
increase and become gusty. Total accumulation of 1 to 2 inches is
expected at this time at KSTL.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR Knox MO-
     Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR Adams IL-
     Brown IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 252120
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
320 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 302 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

A weakening clipper system will bring light snow to most of the
CWA tonight and tomorrow morning. This forecast package generally
followed model depictions of H9-H8 frontogenesis fields for timing
and placement of the highest PoPs, a change which delays pcpn
onset at most locations until after 26/00z and extends the
occurrence of light snowfall across the greater St. Louis metro
area through the Thursday morning commute. Accumulations of 1-3"
still look reasonable areawide with higher amounts (2-4") in
northeast MO and extreme west central IL, lower amounts (<1")
across southeastern MO and southwest IL, and about an inch around
the St. Louis metro area. Since drivers in the St. Louis metro
area normally have a difficult commute when light snow falls
during rush hour, we have issued an SPS to advise area residents
of tomorrow morning`s forecast.

We discussed whether to extend the existing Winter Weather
Advisory farther south and east to include the metro area between
09z-15z, but chose to hold off for now due to concerns that the
weakening clipper system might weaken even more than what is
currently forecast, which would leave very little (if any)
snowfall across the headline extension. The evening shift and mid
shift will re-evaluate the need for additional headlines based on
future trends.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

The clipper system will be followed by an Arctic high pressure
center which builds across the central CONUS on Thursday/Thursday
night. The coldest temps on Thursday night/early Friday morning
should occur across the northwestern CWA due to proximity to the
ridge axis along with the fresh snow cover. The high pressure
center then shifts eastward on Friday and Saturday. Return flow
begins on Saturday around the back side of the high pressure
center.

Kanofsky

Atmospheric responses to a large low pressure system over the
southwestern CONUS and a trough over the northern plains (strong
WAA and frontogenesis) could bring a wintry mix of all ptypes to
the area on Saturday night and then again for Monday through
Tuesday. but confidence in ptypes, timing, duration, amounts,
transitions, and PoPs remains very low. Kept likely PoPs on days 6
& 7 for collaboration with surrounding offices. Anyone who has
travel plans or other weather-dependent plans early next week are
advised to continue monitoring the forecast over the next few
days.

42

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Surface low pressure system will move from southwest Iowa to south
east Missouri over the next 24 hours, bringing a round of snow to
the region and another arctic blast from the north. Timing of
precipitation continues to slip as the system is relatively slow
for a clipper. Appears snow will finally move into northern
Missouri and west central Illinois shortly after 00Z and then
spread south across the eastern half of Missouri and western
Illinois overnight into Thursday morning. Total accumulation will
range from less than an inch south of St. Louis to as much as 3 or
4 inches across far northeast Missouri. A southeast wind ahead of
the low pressure system will become northwest in its wake and
increase as colder air spills into the Midwest. Expect VFR
conditions to quickly deteriorate to IFR as snow begins and only
improve after the snow diminishes Thursday morning from north to
south.

Specifics for KSTL:
VFR conditions are expected until overnight when snow arrives from
the north. Conditions will quickly go down to IFR levels and
likely stay there through mid morning on Thursday. Snow will
diminish Thursday afternoon to flurries and northwest wind will
increase and become gusty. Total accumulation of 1 to 2 inches is
expected at this time at KSTL.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR Knox MO-
     Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR Adams IL-
     Brown IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 252120
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
320 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 302 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

A weakening clipper system will bring light snow to most of the
CWA tonight and tomorrow morning. This forecast package generally
followed model depictions of H9-H8 frontogenesis fields for timing
and placement of the highest PoPs, a change which delays pcpn
onset at most locations until after 26/00z and extends the
occurrence of light snowfall across the greater St. Louis metro
area through the Thursday morning commute. Accumulations of 1-3"
still look reasonable areawide with higher amounts (2-4") in
northeast MO and extreme west central IL, lower amounts (<1")
across southeastern MO and southwest IL, and about an inch around
the St. Louis metro area. Since drivers in the St. Louis metro
area normally have a difficult commute when light snow falls
during rush hour, we have issued an SPS to advise area residents
of tomorrow morning`s forecast.

We discussed whether to extend the existing Winter Weather
Advisory farther south and east to include the metro area between
09z-15z, but chose to hold off for now due to concerns that the
weakening clipper system might weaken even more than what is
currently forecast, which would leave very little (if any)
snowfall across the headline extension. The evening shift and mid
shift will re-evaluate the need for additional headlines based on
future trends.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

The clipper system will be followed by an Arctic high pressure
center which builds across the central CONUS on Thursday/Thursday
night. The coldest temps on Thursday night/early Friday morning
should occur across the northwestern CWA due to proximity to the
ridge axis along with the fresh snow cover. The high pressure
center then shifts eastward on Friday and Saturday. Return flow
begins on Saturday around the back side of the high pressure
center.

Kanofsky

Atmospheric responses to a large low pressure system over the
southwestern CONUS and a trough over the northern plains (strong
WAA and frontogenesis) could bring a wintry mix of all ptypes to
the area on Saturday night and then again for Monday through
Tuesday. but confidence in ptypes, timing, duration, amounts,
transitions, and PoPs remains very low. Kept likely PoPs on days 6
& 7 for collaboration with surrounding offices. Anyone who has
travel plans or other weather-dependent plans early next week are
advised to continue monitoring the forecast over the next few
days.

42

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Surface low pressure system will move from southwest Iowa to south
east Missouri over the next 24 hours, bringing a round of snow to
the region and another arctic blast from the north. Timing of
precipitation continues to slip as the system is relatively slow
for a clipper. Appears snow will finally move into northern
Missouri and west central Illinois shortly after 00Z and then
spread south across the eastern half of Missouri and western
Illinois overnight into Thursday morning. Total accumulation will
range from less than an inch south of St. Louis to as much as 3 or
4 inches across far northeast Missouri. A southeast wind ahead of
the low pressure system will become northwest in its wake and
increase as colder air spills into the Midwest. Expect VFR
conditions to quickly deteriorate to IFR as snow begins and only
improve after the snow diminishes Thursday morning from north to
south.

Specifics for KSTL:
VFR conditions are expected until overnight when snow arrives from
the north. Conditions will quickly go down to IFR levels and
likely stay there through mid morning on Thursday. Snow will
diminish Thursday afternoon to flurries and northwest wind will
increase and become gusty. Total accumulation of 1 to 2 inches is
expected at this time at KSTL.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR Knox MO-
     Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR Adams IL-
     Brown IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 252101
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
301 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

...A Fast Moving Clipper System Will Bring a Quick Round of Flurries
or Light Snow Late Tonight and Thursday Morning...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 159 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

A clipper system is currently near Iowa and moving southeastward.
A strong cold front is currently near Topeka Kansas and quickly
moving southward. This front will sweep through the area late this
evening. A band of light precip will arrive with the
front and behind it...possibly starting out as a rain/snow mix and
end as light snow or flurries. The best potential for precip will
be from Nevada to Springfield to West Plains and north of that
line.

There will be some light snow accumulations of a dusting to up to
half an inch for areas of southwest Missouri. The best potential
for up to an inch of snow will be from Warsaw to Fort Leonard Wood
to Round Spring and north of that line into central Missouri.

Flurries will end from west to east during the midday hours on
Thursday. The bigger weather story for Thursday will be the return
of Arctic air along with gusty northwest winds up to 35 mph.
Daytime high temperatures will struggle to reach the middle to
upper 20s and wind chill values will be in the single digits to
just slightly below zero.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 159 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

The clipper type system will be exiting the region starting
Thursday evening. A few remaining flurries will remain possible
across the eastern Ozarks as an upper level short wave trough
tracks into northeastern Missouri. Otherwise, surface high
pressure will build south across the Dakotas and will usher in a
bitterly cold air mass. Lows will dip well down into the single
digits over most areas with wind chills below zero. Wind chills
could push advisory criteria (-10) across portions of the central
and eastern Ozarks by sunrise on Friday.

That surface high will then settle southeast towards the Ohio
Valley from Friday into Friday night. Chilly and dry conditions
will continue. This will be the most uneventful portion of the
medium to long range forecast.

The upper level flow will then back to west-southwesterly starting
Saturday. We are expecting a shield of precipitation to spread
from west to east across the area from later Saturday into
Saturday night as low level upglide kicks in. Indications are that
the precipitation will start off as snow. Models then bring a warm
nose into southern Missouri starting later Saturday night. This
will open the door to more of a wintry mix as we head towards
Sunday morning. While precipitation amounts do not look all that
impressive, it does appear that measurable snow and perhaps some
ice are becoming increasingly likely. It is then quite possible
that at least southern portions of the area warm up enough to
change over to rain later Sunday.

Global models then bring a temporary end to the precipitation
Sunday night and early Monday. Multiple upper level waves are
then forecast to come out of the southwestern U.S. as a positively
tilted upper level trough sets up from the northern Plains into
northern Mexico. This regime bodes well for a rather "wet" period
across the Ozarks from later Monday through the middle of next
week. Out that far, precipitation type is a very tough call.
Global models are currently depicting what would be a wintry mix
changing to rain event with even some thunder possible. However, a
few slight changes to the synoptic scale pattern could tilt the
tables in favor of a more wintry scenario. Regardless, we will
also have to watch hydro across the area if we see multiple days
of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1116 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR conditions will start this afternoon with high and mid level
clouds increasing. A cold front will move through tonight and
bring a wind shift with gusty northerly winds behind the front
roughly 06z and after. There will be a gradual decrease in ceilings
later tonight to near MVFR by tomorrow morning. There will also be
a chance for a band of light snow to move through between 06z to
12z and have a PROB30 group to cover this potential. Gusty
northerly winds up to 25 knots and a broken MVFR will be around
through midday on Thursday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Griffin





000
FXUS63 KSGF 252101
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
301 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

...A Fast Moving Clipper System Will Bring a Quick Round of Flurries
or Light Snow Late Tonight and Thursday Morning...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 159 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

A clipper system is currently near Iowa and moving southeastward.
A strong cold front is currently near Topeka Kansas and quickly
moving southward. This front will sweep through the area late this
evening. A band of light precip will arrive with the
front and behind it...possibly starting out as a rain/snow mix and
end as light snow or flurries. The best potential for precip will
be from Nevada to Springfield to West Plains and north of that
line.

There will be some light snow accumulations of a dusting to up to
half an inch for areas of southwest Missouri. The best potential
for up to an inch of snow will be from Warsaw to Fort Leonard Wood
to Round Spring and north of that line into central Missouri.

Flurries will end from west to east during the midday hours on
Thursday. The bigger weather story for Thursday will be the return
of Arctic air along with gusty northwest winds up to 35 mph.
Daytime high temperatures will struggle to reach the middle to
upper 20s and wind chill values will be in the single digits to
just slightly below zero.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 159 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

The clipper type system will be exiting the region starting
Thursday evening. A few remaining flurries will remain possible
across the eastern Ozarks as an upper level short wave trough
tracks into northeastern Missouri. Otherwise, surface high
pressure will build south across the Dakotas and will usher in a
bitterly cold air mass. Lows will dip well down into the single
digits over most areas with wind chills below zero. Wind chills
could push advisory criteria (-10) across portions of the central
and eastern Ozarks by sunrise on Friday.

That surface high will then settle southeast towards the Ohio
Valley from Friday into Friday night. Chilly and dry conditions
will continue. This will be the most uneventful portion of the
medium to long range forecast.

The upper level flow will then back to west-southwesterly starting
Saturday. We are expecting a shield of precipitation to spread
from west to east across the area from later Saturday into
Saturday night as low level upglide kicks in. Indications are that
the precipitation will start off as snow. Models then bring a warm
nose into southern Missouri starting later Saturday night. This
will open the door to more of a wintry mix as we head towards
Sunday morning. While precipitation amounts do not look all that
impressive, it does appear that measurable snow and perhaps some
ice are becoming increasingly likely. It is then quite possible
that at least southern portions of the area warm up enough to
change over to rain later Sunday.

Global models then bring a temporary end to the precipitation
Sunday night and early Monday. Multiple upper level waves are
then forecast to come out of the southwestern U.S. as a positively
tilted upper level trough sets up from the northern Plains into
northern Mexico. This regime bodes well for a rather "wet" period
across the Ozarks from later Monday through the middle of next
week. Out that far, precipitation type is a very tough call.
Global models are currently depicting what would be a wintry mix
changing to rain event with even some thunder possible. However, a
few slight changes to the synoptic scale pattern could tilt the
tables in favor of a more wintry scenario. Regardless, we will
also have to watch hydro across the area if we see multiple days
of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1116 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR conditions will start this afternoon with high and mid level
clouds increasing. A cold front will move through tonight and
bring a wind shift with gusty northerly winds behind the front
roughly 06z and after. There will be a gradual decrease in ceilings
later tonight to near MVFR by tomorrow morning. There will also be
a chance for a band of light snow to move through between 06z to
12z and have a PROB30 group to cover this potential. Gusty
northerly winds up to 25 knots and a broken MVFR will be around
through midday on Thursday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Griffin






000
FXUS63 KLSX 251747
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1147 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 904 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Latest short term model guidance has delayed the onset of
rain/snow mix across the far northern reaches of the CWA until
early this evening. Have reduced POPs further and limited any
accumulation to less than a half inch.

Meanwhile cirrus cloud shield from southern system has moved north
to the I-44 corridor in Missouri and I-64 in Illinois. Have
adjusted sky trends to account for this.

Temperatures are rising quickly where sunshine is occurring
roughly along the Missouri River in Missouri and portions of
western Illinois. Latest guidance suggests temperatures in the 50s
across central MO this afternoon - so have increased highs a few
more degrees over previous forecast to near 50 in Columbia and
Jefferson City.

No changes were made past 00Z this evening.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 353 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Split flow upper level pattern feature two systems. A nthrn wave
that will begin affecting the FA later this aftn into Thu mrng and a
stronger sthrn stream storm. The sthrn energy is expected to track
from the Red River Valley today into the sthrn Appalachians
tonight. This path will keep the effects from this feature well to
the south of the CWA...though will be a significant impact for
locations from NE TX east into the Carolinas. The nthrn system is
dropping SE out of the Dakotas this mrng with a SFC low in along the
NE/SD border as of 9Z with a bndry extending SE across sthrn
IA...nthrn IL/IN and arcing NE in Canada. The bndry is expected to
slowly sag south thru the day with the low tracking just to the SW
of the bndry...which takes it from ern NE this mrng to somewhere
across far ern KS or wrn MO by 00Z this evng. The SREF and ECMWF
appear to be wrn outliers. This system will be in a weakening mode
as it drops SE thru the region overnight. Overall speed of the system
seems to have slowed some over the past 24 hrs and as such have backed
off on increasing PoPs across the nthrn zones until late this
aftn. The slower system also means thicker cloud cover will be
delayed allowing temps to rise a bit more than previously thought.
Temps may be marginal for snow at the onset of the event as
well...allowing for a possible rain snow mix. Therefore...have
significantly lowered QPF and snow accums prior to 00z and have
them confined primarily along and north of US HWY 36 with snow
accums of less than an inch. Have also delayed the start time of
the ADVY til 21Z due to the above reasoning. Added Brown and Pike
Counties in IL to the ADVY and now have it ending at 15Z
Thu...instead of 12Z.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 353 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Clipper system centered over west central Missouri will continue
to slide to the southeast tonight...with colder air filtering in
from the north. Because of slightly warmer temps over central MO
could still see some mixed rain and snow over this region for a
few hours after 00z Thursday. Otherwise, heaviest snowfall will be
across northeast MO and west central IL. Even though system
weakens as it exits region, will see lingering light snow through
at least 18z Thursday before tapering off. Storm total numbers
will range from 3 to 4 inches far north to less than an inch
southeast of the St. Louis metro area.

Colder air to filter into the region on Thursday, so will have
non-diurnal temps, with mid morning highs most locations, then
either steady or falling temps through the afternoon hours. Thursday
night will be our coldest night as fresh new snowfall, light north
wind and clearing skies allow temps to fall below zero for areas
north of the I-70 corridor. Rest of forecast area will see lows in
the single digits above zero. As for wind chill indicies,
approaching advisory criteria for northeast MO and west central IL,
but it`s too early to issue an advisory at this time.

Beyond that, the extended models continue to have timing, placement
and strength differences with the prolonged period of precipitation
this weekend and into early next week. Best chances of precipitation
continues to be the Saturday night/Sunday timeframe and Monday
night/Tuesday timeframe. Continue to check back frequently for
updates to this event.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Surface low pressure system will move from southwest Iowa to south
east Missouri over the next 24 hours, bringing a round of snow to
the region and another arctic blast from the north. Timing of
precipitation continues to slip as the system is relatively slow
for a clipper. Appears snow will finally move into northern
Missouri and west central Illinois shortly after 00Z and then
spread south across the eastern half of Missouri and western
Illinois overnight into Thursday morning. Total accumulation will
range from less than an inch south of St. Louis to as much as 3 or
4 inches across far northeast Missouri. A southeast wind ahead of
the low pressure system will become northwest in its wake and
increase as colder air spills into the Midwest. Expect VFR
conditions to quickly deteriorate to IFR as snow begins and only
improve after the snow diminishes Thursday morning from north to
south.

Specifics for KSTL:
VFR conditions are expected until overnight when snow arrives from
the north. Conditions will quickly go down to IFR levels and
likely stay there through mid morning on Thursday. Snow will
diminish Thursday afternoon to flurries and northwest wind will
increase and become gusty. Total accumulation of 1 to 2 inches is
expected at this time at KSTL.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-
     Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 251747
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1147 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 904 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Latest short term model guidance has delayed the onset of
rain/snow mix across the far northern reaches of the CWA until
early this evening. Have reduced POPs further and limited any
accumulation to less than a half inch.

Meanwhile cirrus cloud shield from southern system has moved north
to the I-44 corridor in Missouri and I-64 in Illinois. Have
adjusted sky trends to account for this.

Temperatures are rising quickly where sunshine is occurring
roughly along the Missouri River in Missouri and portions of
western Illinois. Latest guidance suggests temperatures in the 50s
across central MO this afternoon - so have increased highs a few
more degrees over previous forecast to near 50 in Columbia and
Jefferson City.

No changes were made past 00Z this evening.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 353 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Split flow upper level pattern feature two systems. A nthrn wave
that will begin affecting the FA later this aftn into Thu mrng and a
stronger sthrn stream storm. The sthrn energy is expected to track
from the Red River Valley today into the sthrn Appalachians
tonight. This path will keep the effects from this feature well to
the south of the CWA...though will be a significant impact for
locations from NE TX east into the Carolinas. The nthrn system is
dropping SE out of the Dakotas this mrng with a SFC low in along the
NE/SD border as of 9Z with a bndry extending SE across sthrn
IA...nthrn IL/IN and arcing NE in Canada. The bndry is expected to
slowly sag south thru the day with the low tracking just to the SW
of the bndry...which takes it from ern NE this mrng to somewhere
across far ern KS or wrn MO by 00Z this evng. The SREF and ECMWF
appear to be wrn outliers. This system will be in a weakening mode
as it drops SE thru the region overnight. Overall speed of the system
seems to have slowed some over the past 24 hrs and as such have backed
off on increasing PoPs across the nthrn zones until late this
aftn. The slower system also means thicker cloud cover will be
delayed allowing temps to rise a bit more than previously thought.
Temps may be marginal for snow at the onset of the event as
well...allowing for a possible rain snow mix. Therefore...have
significantly lowered QPF and snow accums prior to 00z and have
them confined primarily along and north of US HWY 36 with snow
accums of less than an inch. Have also delayed the start time of
the ADVY til 21Z due to the above reasoning. Added Brown and Pike
Counties in IL to the ADVY and now have it ending at 15Z
Thu...instead of 12Z.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 353 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Clipper system centered over west central Missouri will continue
to slide to the southeast tonight...with colder air filtering in
from the north. Because of slightly warmer temps over central MO
could still see some mixed rain and snow over this region for a
few hours after 00z Thursday. Otherwise, heaviest snowfall will be
across northeast MO and west central IL. Even though system
weakens as it exits region, will see lingering light snow through
at least 18z Thursday before tapering off. Storm total numbers
will range from 3 to 4 inches far north to less than an inch
southeast of the St. Louis metro area.

Colder air to filter into the region on Thursday, so will have
non-diurnal temps, with mid morning highs most locations, then
either steady or falling temps through the afternoon hours. Thursday
night will be our coldest night as fresh new snowfall, light north
wind and clearing skies allow temps to fall below zero for areas
north of the I-70 corridor. Rest of forecast area will see lows in
the single digits above zero. As for wind chill indicies,
approaching advisory criteria for northeast MO and west central IL,
but it`s too early to issue an advisory at this time.

Beyond that, the extended models continue to have timing, placement
and strength differences with the prolonged period of precipitation
this weekend and into early next week. Best chances of precipitation
continues to be the Saturday night/Sunday timeframe and Monday
night/Tuesday timeframe. Continue to check back frequently for
updates to this event.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Surface low pressure system will move from southwest Iowa to south
east Missouri over the next 24 hours, bringing a round of snow to
the region and another arctic blast from the north. Timing of
precipitation continues to slip as the system is relatively slow
for a clipper. Appears snow will finally move into northern
Missouri and west central Illinois shortly after 00Z and then
spread south across the eastern half of Missouri and western
Illinois overnight into Thursday morning. Total accumulation will
range from less than an inch south of St. Louis to as much as 3 or
4 inches across far northeast Missouri. A southeast wind ahead of
the low pressure system will become northwest in its wake and
increase as colder air spills into the Midwest. Expect VFR
conditions to quickly deteriorate to IFR as snow begins and only
improve after the snow diminishes Thursday morning from north to
south.

Specifics for KSTL:
VFR conditions are expected until overnight when snow arrives from
the north. Conditions will quickly go down to IFR levels and
likely stay there through mid morning on Thursday. Snow will
diminish Thursday afternoon to flurries and northwest wind will
increase and become gusty. Total accumulation of 1 to 2 inches is
expected at this time at KSTL.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-
     Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 251747
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1147 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 904 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Latest short term model guidance has delayed the onset of
rain/snow mix across the far northern reaches of the CWA until
early this evening. Have reduced POPs further and limited any
accumulation to less than a half inch.

Meanwhile cirrus cloud shield from southern system has moved north
to the I-44 corridor in Missouri and I-64 in Illinois. Have
adjusted sky trends to account for this.

Temperatures are rising quickly where sunshine is occurring
roughly along the Missouri River in Missouri and portions of
western Illinois. Latest guidance suggests temperatures in the 50s
across central MO this afternoon - so have increased highs a few
more degrees over previous forecast to near 50 in Columbia and
Jefferson City.

No changes were made past 00Z this evening.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 353 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Split flow upper level pattern feature two systems. A nthrn wave
that will begin affecting the FA later this aftn into Thu mrng and a
stronger sthrn stream storm. The sthrn energy is expected to track
from the Red River Valley today into the sthrn Appalachians
tonight. This path will keep the effects from this feature well to
the south of the CWA...though will be a significant impact for
locations from NE TX east into the Carolinas. The nthrn system is
dropping SE out of the Dakotas this mrng with a SFC low in along the
NE/SD border as of 9Z with a bndry extending SE across sthrn
IA...nthrn IL/IN and arcing NE in Canada. The bndry is expected to
slowly sag south thru the day with the low tracking just to the SW
of the bndry...which takes it from ern NE this mrng to somewhere
across far ern KS or wrn MO by 00Z this evng. The SREF and ECMWF
appear to be wrn outliers. This system will be in a weakening mode
as it drops SE thru the region overnight. Overall speed of the system
seems to have slowed some over the past 24 hrs and as such have backed
off on increasing PoPs across the nthrn zones until late this
aftn. The slower system also means thicker cloud cover will be
delayed allowing temps to rise a bit more than previously thought.
Temps may be marginal for snow at the onset of the event as
well...allowing for a possible rain snow mix. Therefore...have
significantly lowered QPF and snow accums prior to 00z and have
them confined primarily along and north of US HWY 36 with snow
accums of less than an inch. Have also delayed the start time of
the ADVY til 21Z due to the above reasoning. Added Brown and Pike
Counties in IL to the ADVY and now have it ending at 15Z
Thu...instead of 12Z.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 353 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Clipper system centered over west central Missouri will continue
to slide to the southeast tonight...with colder air filtering in
from the north. Because of slightly warmer temps over central MO
could still see some mixed rain and snow over this region for a
few hours after 00z Thursday. Otherwise, heaviest snowfall will be
across northeast MO and west central IL. Even though system
weakens as it exits region, will see lingering light snow through
at least 18z Thursday before tapering off. Storm total numbers
will range from 3 to 4 inches far north to less than an inch
southeast of the St. Louis metro area.

Colder air to filter into the region on Thursday, so will have
non-diurnal temps, with mid morning highs most locations, then
either steady or falling temps through the afternoon hours. Thursday
night will be our coldest night as fresh new snowfall, light north
wind and clearing skies allow temps to fall below zero for areas
north of the I-70 corridor. Rest of forecast area will see lows in
the single digits above zero. As for wind chill indicies,
approaching advisory criteria for northeast MO and west central IL,
but it`s too early to issue an advisory at this time.

Beyond that, the extended models continue to have timing, placement
and strength differences with the prolonged period of precipitation
this weekend and into early next week. Best chances of precipitation
continues to be the Saturday night/Sunday timeframe and Monday
night/Tuesday timeframe. Continue to check back frequently for
updates to this event.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Surface low pressure system will move from southwest Iowa to south
east Missouri over the next 24 hours, bringing a round of snow to
the region and another arctic blast from the north. Timing of
precipitation continues to slip as the system is relatively slow
for a clipper. Appears snow will finally move into northern
Missouri and west central Illinois shortly after 00Z and then
spread south across the eastern half of Missouri and western
Illinois overnight into Thursday morning. Total accumulation will
range from less than an inch south of St. Louis to as much as 3 or
4 inches across far northeast Missouri. A southeast wind ahead of
the low pressure system will become northwest in its wake and
increase as colder air spills into the Midwest. Expect VFR
conditions to quickly deteriorate to IFR as snow begins and only
improve after the snow diminishes Thursday morning from north to
south.

Specifics for KSTL:
VFR conditions are expected until overnight when snow arrives from
the north. Conditions will quickly go down to IFR levels and
likely stay there through mid morning on Thursday. Snow will
diminish Thursday afternoon to flurries and northwest wind will
increase and become gusty. Total accumulation of 1 to 2 inches is
expected at this time at KSTL.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-
     Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 251725
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1125 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

...18z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Milder temperatures are in store for one more day before the next
Arctic surge arrives late tonight. Southerly winds, considerable
sunshine and a shrinking snowfield over the Ozark Plateau will allow
temperatures to rise into the 40s with some lower and possibly
middle 50s from southeastern Kansas into far west central
Missouri.

The clipper system that has been advertised will slide quickly
southeastward into Missouri this evening and across southern
Missouri into early Thursday morning. Precipitation will arrive to
central Missouri by late evening then spread southeastward. The
best chance for light snowfall will be to the northeast of the
vorticity maxima and diffuse surface low that will push southeast
across the Missouri Ozarks late tonight. Areas of central Missouri
into the eastern Ozarks could see up to an inch of snow with
lesser amounts to the west.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Areas of light snow or flurries will linger Thursday morning as
the clipper exits to the southeast. Strong cold air advection will
follow the passage of this system will temperatures falling
through the 20s toward the teens by late afternoon. Lows Thursday
night will fall into single digits and may approach zero across
central Missouri. A steady northerly wind will produce wind chill
values in the single digits below zero and as cold as 10 below
late Thursday night into Friday morning. With 850 MB temperatures
around 15 degrees Celsius below temperatures Friday will struggle
to climb to around 20 degrees.

Models continue to advertise the potential for accumulating wintry
precipitation this weekend. While details in regards to precipitation
type, amounts and timing remain uncertain confidence is increasing
that the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern Kansas will see wintry
precipitation this weekend.

The upper pattern will become more zonal as a deep upper level
trough evolves out west. A series of disturbances will eject
northeastward from this trough across the region while a frontal
zone develops underneath the westerly to southwesterly flow aloft.
The first round of precipitation will arrive Saturday and Saturday
night. It appears that this initial round of precipitation will be
primarily in the form of snow as a deep Arctic airmass remains
entrenched. Precipitation types become more uncertain with time as
warm air advection develops over the cold dome. Precipitation may
transition to a wintry mix later Saturday night into Sunday and
Sunday night. Some areas of southern Missouri may even rise above
freezing Sunday. However it is too early to pin down precipitation
types and amounts given the complexity of this system.

For now closely monitor the latest weather information and forecasts
as we approach the weekend.

The unsettled pattern continues into early next with considerable
uncertainty remaining on precipitation types.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1116 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

VRF conditions will start this afternoon with high and mid level
clouds increasing. A cold front will move through tonight and
bring a wind shift with gusty northerly winds behind the front
roughly 06z and after. There will be a gradual decrease in ceilings
later tonight to near MVFR by tomorrow morning. There will also be
a chance for a band of light snow to move through between 06z to
12z and have a PROB30 group to cover this potential. Gusty
northerly winds up to 25 knots and a broken MVFR will be around
through midday on Thursday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Griffin






000
FXUS63 KSGF 251725
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1125 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

...18z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Milder temperatures are in store for one more day before the next
Arctic surge arrives late tonight. Southerly winds, considerable
sunshine and a shrinking snowfield over the Ozark Plateau will allow
temperatures to rise into the 40s with some lower and possibly
middle 50s from southeastern Kansas into far west central
Missouri.

The clipper system that has been advertised will slide quickly
southeastward into Missouri this evening and across southern
Missouri into early Thursday morning. Precipitation will arrive to
central Missouri by late evening then spread southeastward. The
best chance for light snowfall will be to the northeast of the
vorticity maxima and diffuse surface low that will push southeast
across the Missouri Ozarks late tonight. Areas of central Missouri
into the eastern Ozarks could see up to an inch of snow with
lesser amounts to the west.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Areas of light snow or flurries will linger Thursday morning as
the clipper exits to the southeast. Strong cold air advection will
follow the passage of this system will temperatures falling
through the 20s toward the teens by late afternoon. Lows Thursday
night will fall into single digits and may approach zero across
central Missouri. A steady northerly wind will produce wind chill
values in the single digits below zero and as cold as 10 below
late Thursday night into Friday morning. With 850 MB temperatures
around 15 degrees Celsius below temperatures Friday will struggle
to climb to around 20 degrees.

Models continue to advertise the potential for accumulating wintry
precipitation this weekend. While details in regards to precipitation
type, amounts and timing remain uncertain confidence is increasing
that the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern Kansas will see wintry
precipitation this weekend.

The upper pattern will become more zonal as a deep upper level
trough evolves out west. A series of disturbances will eject
northeastward from this trough across the region while a frontal
zone develops underneath the westerly to southwesterly flow aloft.
The first round of precipitation will arrive Saturday and Saturday
night. It appears that this initial round of precipitation will be
primarily in the form of snow as a deep Arctic airmass remains
entrenched. Precipitation types become more uncertain with time as
warm air advection develops over the cold dome. Precipitation may
transition to a wintry mix later Saturday night into Sunday and
Sunday night. Some areas of southern Missouri may even rise above
freezing Sunday. However it is too early to pin down precipitation
types and amounts given the complexity of this system.

For now closely monitor the latest weather information and forecasts
as we approach the weekend.

The unsettled pattern continues into early next with considerable
uncertainty remaining on precipitation types.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1116 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

VRF conditions will start this afternoon with high and mid level
clouds increasing. A cold front will move through tonight and
bring a wind shift with gusty northerly winds behind the front
roughly 06z and after. There will be a gradual decrease in ceilings
later tonight to near MVFR by tomorrow morning. There will also be
a chance for a band of light snow to move through between 06z to
12z and have a PROB30 group to cover this potential. Gusty
northerly winds up to 25 knots and a broken MVFR will be around
through midday on Thursday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Griffin






000
FXUS63 KSGF 251725
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1125 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

...18z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Milder temperatures are in store for one more day before the next
Arctic surge arrives late tonight. Southerly winds, considerable
sunshine and a shrinking snowfield over the Ozark Plateau will allow
temperatures to rise into the 40s with some lower and possibly
middle 50s from southeastern Kansas into far west central
Missouri.

The clipper system that has been advertised will slide quickly
southeastward into Missouri this evening and across southern
Missouri into early Thursday morning. Precipitation will arrive to
central Missouri by late evening then spread southeastward. The
best chance for light snowfall will be to the northeast of the
vorticity maxima and diffuse surface low that will push southeast
across the Missouri Ozarks late tonight. Areas of central Missouri
into the eastern Ozarks could see up to an inch of snow with
lesser amounts to the west.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Areas of light snow or flurries will linger Thursday morning as
the clipper exits to the southeast. Strong cold air advection will
follow the passage of this system will temperatures falling
through the 20s toward the teens by late afternoon. Lows Thursday
night will fall into single digits and may approach zero across
central Missouri. A steady northerly wind will produce wind chill
values in the single digits below zero and as cold as 10 below
late Thursday night into Friday morning. With 850 MB temperatures
around 15 degrees Celsius below temperatures Friday will struggle
to climb to around 20 degrees.

Models continue to advertise the potential for accumulating wintry
precipitation this weekend. While details in regards to precipitation
type, amounts and timing remain uncertain confidence is increasing
that the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern Kansas will see wintry
precipitation this weekend.

The upper pattern will become more zonal as a deep upper level
trough evolves out west. A series of disturbances will eject
northeastward from this trough across the region while a frontal
zone develops underneath the westerly to southwesterly flow aloft.
The first round of precipitation will arrive Saturday and Saturday
night. It appears that this initial round of precipitation will be
primarily in the form of snow as a deep Arctic airmass remains
entrenched. Precipitation types become more uncertain with time as
warm air advection develops over the cold dome. Precipitation may
transition to a wintry mix later Saturday night into Sunday and
Sunday night. Some areas of southern Missouri may even rise above
freezing Sunday. However it is too early to pin down precipitation
types and amounts given the complexity of this system.

For now closely monitor the latest weather information and forecasts
as we approach the weekend.

The unsettled pattern continues into early next with considerable
uncertainty remaining on precipitation types.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1116 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

VRF conditions will start this afternoon with high and mid level
clouds increasing. A cold front will move through tonight and
bring a wind shift with gusty northerly winds behind the front
roughly 06z and after. There will be a gradual decrease in ceilings
later tonight to near MVFR by tomorrow morning. There will also be
a chance for a band of light snow to move through between 06z to
12z and have a PROB30 group to cover this potential. Gusty
northerly winds up to 25 knots and a broken MVFR will be around
through midday on Thursday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Griffin






000
FXUS63 KSGF 251725
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1125 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

...18z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Milder temperatures are in store for one more day before the next
Arctic surge arrives late tonight. Southerly winds, considerable
sunshine and a shrinking snowfield over the Ozark Plateau will allow
temperatures to rise into the 40s with some lower and possibly
middle 50s from southeastern Kansas into far west central
Missouri.

The clipper system that has been advertised will slide quickly
southeastward into Missouri this evening and across southern
Missouri into early Thursday morning. Precipitation will arrive to
central Missouri by late evening then spread southeastward. The
best chance for light snowfall will be to the northeast of the
vorticity maxima and diffuse surface low that will push southeast
across the Missouri Ozarks late tonight. Areas of central Missouri
into the eastern Ozarks could see up to an inch of snow with
lesser amounts to the west.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Areas of light snow or flurries will linger Thursday morning as
the clipper exits to the southeast. Strong cold air advection will
follow the passage of this system will temperatures falling
through the 20s toward the teens by late afternoon. Lows Thursday
night will fall into single digits and may approach zero across
central Missouri. A steady northerly wind will produce wind chill
values in the single digits below zero and as cold as 10 below
late Thursday night into Friday morning. With 850 MB temperatures
around 15 degrees Celsius below temperatures Friday will struggle
to climb to around 20 degrees.

Models continue to advertise the potential for accumulating wintry
precipitation this weekend. While details in regards to precipitation
type, amounts and timing remain uncertain confidence is increasing
that the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern Kansas will see wintry
precipitation this weekend.

The upper pattern will become more zonal as a deep upper level
trough evolves out west. A series of disturbances will eject
northeastward from this trough across the region while a frontal
zone develops underneath the westerly to southwesterly flow aloft.
The first round of precipitation will arrive Saturday and Saturday
night. It appears that this initial round of precipitation will be
primarily in the form of snow as a deep Arctic airmass remains
entrenched. Precipitation types become more uncertain with time as
warm air advection develops over the cold dome. Precipitation may
transition to a wintry mix later Saturday night into Sunday and
Sunday night. Some areas of southern Missouri may even rise above
freezing Sunday. However it is too early to pin down precipitation
types and amounts given the complexity of this system.

For now closely monitor the latest weather information and forecasts
as we approach the weekend.

The unsettled pattern continues into early next with considerable
uncertainty remaining on precipitation types.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1116 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

VRF conditions will start this afternoon with high and mid level
clouds increasing. A cold front will move through tonight and
bring a wind shift with gusty northerly winds behind the front
roughly 06z and after. There will be a gradual decrease in ceilings
later tonight to near MVFR by tomorrow morning. There will also be
a chance for a band of light snow to move through between 06z to
12z and have a PROB30 group to cover this potential. Gusty
northerly winds up to 25 knots and a broken MVFR will be around
through midday on Thursday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Griffin






000
FXUS63 KSGF 251725
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1125 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

...18z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Milder temperatures are in store for one more day before the next
Arctic surge arrives late tonight. Southerly winds, considerable
sunshine and a shrinking snowfield over the Ozark Plateau will allow
temperatures to rise into the 40s with some lower and possibly
middle 50s from southeastern Kansas into far west central
Missouri.

The clipper system that has been advertised will slide quickly
southeastward into Missouri this evening and across southern
Missouri into early Thursday morning. Precipitation will arrive to
central Missouri by late evening then spread southeastward. The
best chance for light snowfall will be to the northeast of the
vorticity maxima and diffuse surface low that will push southeast
across the Missouri Ozarks late tonight. Areas of central Missouri
into the eastern Ozarks could see up to an inch of snow with
lesser amounts to the west.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Areas of light snow or flurries will linger Thursday morning as
the clipper exits to the southeast. Strong cold air advection will
follow the passage of this system will temperatures falling
through the 20s toward the teens by late afternoon. Lows Thursday
night will fall into single digits and may approach zero across
central Missouri. A steady northerly wind will produce wind chill
values in the single digits below zero and as cold as 10 below
late Thursday night into Friday morning. With 850 MB temperatures
around 15 degrees Celsius below temperatures Friday will struggle
to climb to around 20 degrees.

Models continue to advertise the potential for accumulating wintry
precipitation this weekend. While details in regards to precipitation
type, amounts and timing remain uncertain confidence is increasing
that the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern Kansas will see wintry
precipitation this weekend.

The upper pattern will become more zonal as a deep upper level
trough evolves out west. A series of disturbances will eject
northeastward from this trough across the region while a frontal
zone develops underneath the westerly to southwesterly flow aloft.
The first round of precipitation will arrive Saturday and Saturday
night. It appears that this initial round of precipitation will be
primarily in the form of snow as a deep Arctic airmass remains
entrenched. Precipitation types become more uncertain with time as
warm air advection develops over the cold dome. Precipitation may
transition to a wintry mix later Saturday night into Sunday and
Sunday night. Some areas of southern Missouri may even rise above
freezing Sunday. However it is too early to pin down precipitation
types and amounts given the complexity of this system.

For now closely monitor the latest weather information and forecasts
as we approach the weekend.

The unsettled pattern continues into early next with considerable
uncertainty remaining on precipitation types.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1116 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

VRF conditions will start this afternoon with high and mid level
clouds increasing. A cold front will move through tonight and
bring a wind shift with gusty northerly winds behind the front
roughly 06z and after. There will be a gradual decrease in ceilings
later tonight to near MVFR by tomorrow morning. There will also be
a chance for a band of light snow to move through between 06z to
12z and have a PROB30 group to cover this potential. Gusty
northerly winds up to 25 knots and a broken MVFR will be around
through midday on Thursday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Griffin






000
FXUS63 KEAX 251725
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1125 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

This morning`s model runs, including the short-term HRRR and RAP,
continue to trend a bit further east with the surface low track which
now looks to track from near Maryville to just west of Chillicothe to
near Boonville. Didn`t make any significant changes to snow amounts
to the east of the low track, still generally 2" to 4" across the
advisory area, but it now looks like anything more than 4" will be
just outside our CWA across southeast IA. With the surface low
tracking over Maryville, any advisory-level snows should fall just
east of Nodaway County so this county was removed from the winter
weather advisory.

To the west of the low track, any precipitation will be limited to a
short-window just behind a cold front which will track through later
this evening. This front will bring a rapid drop in temperatures so
that any precipitation that starts as rain should quickly be able to
switch to snow. Decent post-frontal convergence and shallow low-
level frontogenesis may still be able to squeeze out a quick sprinkle
or snow shower despite the recent runs of the RAP and HRRR keeping
these areas completely dry. However the odds of any snow accumulation
reaching an inch or more are low. Updated the forecast for the KC
metro and points south and west to keep snow amounts generally under
a half inch. The bigger concern for these areas will be potential
flash-freezing of any rain or melting snow that does fall, with
temperatures forecast to be dropping into the 20s across all areas by
midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 412 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Water vapor showing well anticipated shortwave trough dropping through
the northern Rockies this morning...with associated sfc reflection
now analyzed along the central Nebraska/South Dakota border. Out
ahead of the sfc low...latest sfc obs show a stationary boundary
extending east-southeast through southern Iowa into northern Illinois
and Indiana. With time today...main shortwave and sfc low will
continue tracking along this boundary before passing over the lower
Missouri Valley later tonight. As has been advertised in recent
days...region remains in the cross-hairs for accumulating snowfall
later tonight as system passes overhead. One would think that the
fcst would have been fairly easy this morning with us being so close
to event start time...but that could not be further from the truth as
latest 00z guidance has come in with a more northward track of the
main sfc low later tonight. With this being the case...our region stands
an excellent chance of warming quite a bit higher than previously
thought...which adds a fair amount of complexity to the going
forecast. Out ahead of the low...southwest downslope winds will
combine with modest warm air advection to allow temperatures to reach
the lower to middle 50s across west-central Missouri and eastern
Kansas to include the KC and STJ metros. To the east...a lingering
snowpack remains in place along and north of the Missouri River which
will likely result in a fairly impressive thermal gradient later this
afternoon. Meanwhile areas north of Route 36 also stand a decent
chance of warming up today as much of far northern Missouri also remains
snow free. In any event...warmer temps and the overall delay of the
system/s arrival by a few hours has resulted in changes to the fcst
to include snow total amounts.

As a result of the delayed arrival...latest models show precip
struggling to work into the area by 21z. With warmer temps in
place...precip will likely start out as rain across much of the
area...before cold air finally begins working into the region later
in the evening behind the main cold front. With limited winter precip
expected this afternoon...have elected to delay the winter weather
advisory start time until 21z this afternoon...and that may still be
a bit to early. In any event...models show main QPF max sliding
southeast over the area mainly between 00 and 06z tonight...with
precip gradually coming to an end from west to east during the early
morning hrs. Considering the amount of warming during the day...warm
ground temps should limit overall accumulations early on...before
precip rates increase heading into the early overnight hrs. In terms
of accumulations...expect maybe an inch in the greater KC area...with
even less across our eastern Kansas and our west-central Missouri
zones south of I-70. Further east where the heavier precip is
expected...have trimmed back on snowfall amounts slightly as fast
storm movement and delayed precip arrival time will likely lead to
slightly lower amounts. In general across the advisory area...expect
2-4" across most locations...however 3-5" will be possible north of
Kirksville before all is said and done. Cannot rule out a 6" report
up there but did not have enough confidence to even consider a
possible warning upgrade. As alluded to above...best accumulations
likely to occur after 00z...hence supporting the decision to slide
the advisory start time to the right.

Another factor to consider overnight will be the strong winds
with cold air advection following fropa. Current BUFKIT momentum
transfer tool output suggesting gusts in the mid to upper 30 kt range
later tonight. Combine this with any falling snow....blowing and
drifting will certainly be a possibility overnight.

Lingering light snow shwrs to come to an end by mid morning Thursday
as drier air and strong high pressure builds into the area. For the
remainder of the short term...focus will be on well below normal
temperatures as strong high pressure combines with fresh snow and clear
skies aloft. Have generally undercut guidance for temps both Thu and
Fri with Fri morning shaping up to be one of the coldest mornings of
the year /subzero at KCI?/. Any precip with this weekend/s system to
hold off until later on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Models continue to advertise an active weather pattern for much of
the extended range forecast. Two main features of interest that will
be the driving forces for sensible weather across our area will be:
1) An upper level trough across the central Rockies 2) A surface
front that will sink south through the forecast area and stall south
of the area.

On Saturday, an upper level trough will be sinking slow south across
the central Rockies. Further east, across the eastern half of the
CONUS, the upper flow will become quasi-zonal. Several shortwave
impulses will eject out from the upper level trough and into the
local area. Cold air will already be in place on Saturday and
precipitation should begin as snow...spreading from west to east
through the afternoon. Snow will continue through Saturday night.
Sunday, a cold front will sink south through the area reinforcing
the cold air and continue snow chances. However, as we get into
Sunday night we begin to lose ice crystals in the snow growth
zone...especially across the southern CWA...and snow may mix with or
change over to sleet.

Model solutions begin to diverge in the Monday to Tuesday timeframe.
On Monday, model differences revolve around how quickly the cold
front begins to lift back north towards the forecast area. Although,
precipitation continues to look likely on Monday, P-Type is more in
question with the front lifting back northward. Model soundings
indicate the potential for freezing rain to the south a wintry mix
across the central CWA with the northern CWA remaining snow. Tuesday
the main concern will be the upper level trough across the Rockies.
The GFS is faster moving it through the area on Tuesday bringing
another round of snow to the forecast area. The EC is about 24 hours
slower in moving the trough eastward into the local area. This
solution would bring a lull in precipitation on Tuesday with another
round of precipitation back in on Wednesday. Have maintained a
blended solution through this timeframe until forecast details can
be fine tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Strong cold front will drop through the region early this evening with
an area of rain/snow spreading into northern Missouri behind it. Most
accumulating snow will stay well to the northeast of the KC area,
mainly affecting CDJ and IRK areas, possibly down to DMO. For the STJ
and KC areas, a few rain/snow showers are possible for a few hours
behind the front but any snow accumulations will be under a half inch
with minimal impacts to air operations, although a rapid drop in
temperatures could freeze any water on runways. The bigger concern
will be the winds which may occasionally gust higher than 35 kt.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ003>008-014>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hawblitzel
SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...Hawblitzel






000
FXUS63 KEAX 251605
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1005 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

This morning`s model runs, including the short-term HRRR and RAP,
continue to trend a bit further east with the surface low track which
now looks to track from near Maryville to just west of Chillicothe to
near Boonville. Didn`t make any significant changes to snow amounts
to the east of the low track, still generally 2" to 4" across the
advisory area, but it now looks like anything more than 4" will be
just outside our CWA across southeast IA. With the surface low
tracking over Maryville, any advisory-level snows should fall just
east of Nodaway County so this county was removed from the winter
weather advisory.

To the west of the low track, any precipitation will be limited to a
short-window just behind a cold front which will track through later
this evening. This front will bring a rapid drop in temperatures so
that any precipitation that starts as rain should quickly be able to
switch to snow. Decent post-frontal convergence and shallow low-
level frontogenesis may still be able to squeeze out a quick sprinkle
or snow shower despite the recent runs of the RAP and HRRR keeping
these areas completely dry. However the odds of any snow accumulation
reaching an inch or more are low. Updated the forecast for the KC
metro and points south and west to keep snow amounts generally under
a half inch. The bigger concern for these areas will be potential
flash-freezing of any rain or melting snow that does fall, with
temperatures forecast to be dropping into the 20s across all areas by
midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 412 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Water vapor showing well anticipated shortwave trough dropping through
the northern Rockies this morning...with associated sfc reflection
now analyzed along the central Nebraska/South Dakota border. Out
ahead of the sfc low...latest sfc obs show a stationary boundary
extending east-southeast through southern Iowa into northern Illinois
and Indiana. With time today...main shortwave and sfc low will
continue tracking along this boundary before passing over the lower
Missouri Valley later tonight. As has been advertised in recent
days...region remains in the cross-hairs for accumulating snowfall
later tonight as system passes overhead. One would think that the
fcst would have been fairly easy this morning with us being so close
to event start time...but that could not be further from the truth as
latest 00z guidance has come in with a more northward track of the
main sfc low later tonight. With this being the case...our region stands
an excellent chance of warming quite a bit higher than previously
thought...which adds a fair amount of complexity to the going
forecast. Out ahead of the low...southwest downslope winds will
combine with modest warm air advection to allow temperatures to reach
the lower to middle 50s across west-central Missouri and eastern
Kansas to include the KC and STJ metros. To the east...a lingering
snowpack remains in place along and north of the Missouri River which
will likely result in a fairly impressive thermal gradient later this
afternoon. Meanwhile areas north of Route 36 also stand a decent
chance of warming up today as much of far northern Missouri also remains
snow free. In any event...warmer temps and the overall delay of the
system/s arrival by a few hours has resulted in changes to the fcst
to include snow total amounts.

As a result of the delayed arrival...latest models show precip
struggling to work into the area by 21z. With warmer temps in
place...precip will likely start out as rain across much of the
area...before cold air finally begins working into the region later
in the evening behind the main cold front. With limited winter precip
expected this afternoon...have elected to delay the winter weather
advisory start time until 21z this afternoon...and that may still be
a bit to early. In any event...models show main QPF max sliding
southeast over the area mainly between 00 and 06z tonight...with
precip gradually coming to an end from west to east during the early
morning hrs. Considering the amount of warming during the day...warm
ground temps should limit overall accumulations early on...before
precip rates increase heading into the early overnight hrs. In terms
of accumulations...expect maybe an inch in the greater KC area...with
even less across our eastern Kansas and our west-central Missouri
zones south of I-70. Further east where the heavier precip is
expected...have trimmed back on snowfall amounts slightly as fast
storm movement and delayed precip arrival time will likely lead to
slightly lower amounts. In general across the advisory area...expect
2-4" across most locations...however 3-5" will be possible north of
Kirksville before all is said and done. Cannot rule out a 6" report
up there but did not have enough confidence to even consider a
possible warning upgrade. As alluded to above...best accumulations
likely to occur after 00z...hence supporting the decision to slide
the advisory start time to the right.

Another factor to consider overnight will be the strong winds
with cold air advection following fropa. Current BUFKIT momentum
transfer tool output suggesting gusts in the mid to upper 30 kt range
later tonight. Combine this with any falling snow....blowing and
drifting will certainly be a possibility overnight.

Lingering light snow shwrs to come to an end by mid morning Thursday
as drier air and strong high pressure builds into the area. For the
remainder of the short term...focus will be on well below normal
temperatures as strong high pressure combines with fresh snow and clear
skies aloft. Have generally undercut guidance for temps both Thu and
Fri with Fri morning shaping up to be one of the coldest mornings of
the year /subzero at KCI?/. Any precip with this weekend/s system to
hold off until later on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Models continue to advertise an active weather pattern for much of
the extended range forecast. Two main features of interest that will
be the driving forces for sensible weather across our area will be:
1) An upper level trough across the central Rockies 2) A surface
front that will sink south through the forecast area and stall south
of the area.

On Saturday, an upper level trough will be sinking slow south across
the central Rockies. Further east, across the eastern half of the
CONUS, the upper flow will become quasi-zonal. Several shortwave
impulses will eject out from the upper level trough and into the
local area. Cold air will already be in place on Saturday and
precipitation should begin as snow...spreading from west to east
through the afternoon. Snow will continue through Saturday night.
Sunday, a cold front will sink south through the area reinforcing
the cold air and continue snow chances. However, as we get into
Sunday night we begin to lose ice crystals in the snow growth
zone...especially across the southern CWA...and snow may mix with or
change over to sleet.

Model solutions begin to diverge in the Monday to Tuesday timeframe.
On Monday, model differences revolve around how quickly the cold
front begins to lift back north towards the forecast area. Although,
precipitation continues to look likely on Monday, P-Type is more in
question with the front lifting back northward. Model soundings
indicate the potential for freezing rain to the south a wintry mix
across the central CWA with the northern CWA remaining snow. Tuesday
the main concern will be the upper level trough across the Rockies.
The GFS is faster moving it through the area on Tuesday bringing
another round of snow to the forecast area. The EC is about 24 hours
slower in moving the trough eastward into the local area. This
solution would bring a lull in precipitation on Tuesday with another
round of precipitation back in on Wednesday. Have maintained a
blended solution through this timeframe until forecast details can
be fine tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 520 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR conditions to continue much of the day with southwest winds
between 10-15 kts. By early evening...conditions will quickly
deteriorate to MVFR and eventually IFR and long anticipated storm
system moves overhead. Precip initially in the form of a RA/SN mix
will gradually change over to all SN as colder air filters into the
area. Terminals standing the best chance of seeing IFR VSBYs will be
STJ and MCI...with lower probabilities at remaining sites further south.
Precip will come to an end by 4z with low-end MVFR cigs remaining in
place through the duration of the fcst period. After fropa...winds
will quickly increase from the north by mid/late evening with north
winds gusting up to 35 kts overnight.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ003>008-014>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hawblitzel
SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...32






000
FXUS63 KEAX 251605
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1005 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

This morning`s model runs, including the short-term HRRR and RAP,
continue to trend a bit further east with the surface low track which
now looks to track from near Maryville to just west of Chillicothe to
near Boonville. Didn`t make any significant changes to snow amounts
to the east of the low track, still generally 2" to 4" across the
advisory area, but it now looks like anything more than 4" will be
just outside our CWA across southeast IA. With the surface low
tracking over Maryville, any advisory-level snows should fall just
east of Nodaway County so this county was removed from the winter
weather advisory.

To the west of the low track, any precipitation will be limited to a
short-window just behind a cold front which will track through later
this evening. This front will bring a rapid drop in temperatures so
that any precipitation that starts as rain should quickly be able to
switch to snow. Decent post-frontal convergence and shallow low-
level frontogenesis may still be able to squeeze out a quick sprinkle
or snow shower despite the recent runs of the RAP and HRRR keeping
these areas completely dry. However the odds of any snow accumulation
reaching an inch or more are low. Updated the forecast for the KC
metro and points south and west to keep snow amounts generally under
a half inch. The bigger concern for these areas will be potential
flash-freezing of any rain or melting snow that does fall, with
temperatures forecast to be dropping into the 20s across all areas by
midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 412 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Water vapor showing well anticipated shortwave trough dropping through
the northern Rockies this morning...with associated sfc reflection
now analyzed along the central Nebraska/South Dakota border. Out
ahead of the sfc low...latest sfc obs show a stationary boundary
extending east-southeast through southern Iowa into northern Illinois
and Indiana. With time today...main shortwave and sfc low will
continue tracking along this boundary before passing over the lower
Missouri Valley later tonight. As has been advertised in recent
days...region remains in the cross-hairs for accumulating snowfall
later tonight as system passes overhead. One would think that the
fcst would have been fairly easy this morning with us being so close
to event start time...but that could not be further from the truth as
latest 00z guidance has come in with a more northward track of the
main sfc low later tonight. With this being the case...our region stands
an excellent chance of warming quite a bit higher than previously
thought...which adds a fair amount of complexity to the going
forecast. Out ahead of the low...southwest downslope winds will
combine with modest warm air advection to allow temperatures to reach
the lower to middle 50s across west-central Missouri and eastern
Kansas to include the KC and STJ metros. To the east...a lingering
snowpack remains in place along and north of the Missouri River which
will likely result in a fairly impressive thermal gradient later this
afternoon. Meanwhile areas north of Route 36 also stand a decent
chance of warming up today as much of far northern Missouri also remains
snow free. In any event...warmer temps and the overall delay of the
system/s arrival by a few hours has resulted in changes to the fcst
to include snow total amounts.

As a result of the delayed arrival...latest models show precip
struggling to work into the area by 21z. With warmer temps in
place...precip will likely start out as rain across much of the
area...before cold air finally begins working into the region later
in the evening behind the main cold front. With limited winter precip
expected this afternoon...have elected to delay the winter weather
advisory start time until 21z this afternoon...and that may still be
a bit to early. In any event...models show main QPF max sliding
southeast over the area mainly between 00 and 06z tonight...with
precip gradually coming to an end from west to east during the early
morning hrs. Considering the amount of warming during the day...warm
ground temps should limit overall accumulations early on...before
precip rates increase heading into the early overnight hrs. In terms
of accumulations...expect maybe an inch in the greater KC area...with
even less across our eastern Kansas and our west-central Missouri
zones south of I-70. Further east where the heavier precip is
expected...have trimmed back on snowfall amounts slightly as fast
storm movement and delayed precip arrival time will likely lead to
slightly lower amounts. In general across the advisory area...expect
2-4" across most locations...however 3-5" will be possible north of
Kirksville before all is said and done. Cannot rule out a 6" report
up there but did not have enough confidence to even consider a
possible warning upgrade. As alluded to above...best accumulations
likely to occur after 00z...hence supporting the decision to slide
the advisory start time to the right.

Another factor to consider overnight will be the strong winds
with cold air advection following fropa. Current BUFKIT momentum
transfer tool output suggesting gusts in the mid to upper 30 kt range
later tonight. Combine this with any falling snow....blowing and
drifting will certainly be a possibility overnight.

Lingering light snow shwrs to come to an end by mid morning Thursday
as drier air and strong high pressure builds into the area. For the
remainder of the short term...focus will be on well below normal
temperatures as strong high pressure combines with fresh snow and clear
skies aloft. Have generally undercut guidance for temps both Thu and
Fri with Fri morning shaping up to be one of the coldest mornings of
the year /subzero at KCI?/. Any precip with this weekend/s system to
hold off until later on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Models continue to advertise an active weather pattern for much of
the extended range forecast. Two main features of interest that will
be the driving forces for sensible weather across our area will be:
1) An upper level trough across the central Rockies 2) A surface
front that will sink south through the forecast area and stall south
of the area.

On Saturday, an upper level trough will be sinking slow south across
the central Rockies. Further east, across the eastern half of the
CONUS, the upper flow will become quasi-zonal. Several shortwave
impulses will eject out from the upper level trough and into the
local area. Cold air will already be in place on Saturday and
precipitation should begin as snow...spreading from west to east
through the afternoon. Snow will continue through Saturday night.
Sunday, a cold front will sink south through the area reinforcing
the cold air and continue snow chances. However, as we get into
Sunday night we begin to lose ice crystals in the snow growth
zone...especially across the southern CWA...and snow may mix with or
change over to sleet.

Model solutions begin to diverge in the Monday to Tuesday timeframe.
On Monday, model differences revolve around how quickly the cold
front begins to lift back north towards the forecast area. Although,
precipitation continues to look likely on Monday, P-Type is more in
question with the front lifting back northward. Model soundings
indicate the potential for freezing rain to the south a wintry mix
across the central CWA with the northern CWA remaining snow. Tuesday
the main concern will be the upper level trough across the Rockies.
The GFS is faster moving it through the area on Tuesday bringing
another round of snow to the forecast area. The EC is about 24 hours
slower in moving the trough eastward into the local area. This
solution would bring a lull in precipitation on Tuesday with another
round of precipitation back in on Wednesday. Have maintained a
blended solution through this timeframe until forecast details can
be fine tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 520 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR conditions to continue much of the day with southwest winds
between 10-15 kts. By early evening...conditions will quickly
deteriorate to MVFR and eventually IFR and long anticipated storm
system moves overhead. Precip initially in the form of a RA/SN mix
will gradually change over to all SN as colder air filters into the
area. Terminals standing the best chance of seeing IFR VSBYs will be
STJ and MCI...with lower probabilities at remaining sites further south.
Precip will come to an end by 4z with low-end MVFR cigs remaining in
place through the duration of the fcst period. After fropa...winds
will quickly increase from the north by mid/late evening with north
winds gusting up to 35 kts overnight.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ003>008-014>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hawblitzel
SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KLSX 251508
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
908 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 904 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Latest short term model guidance has delayed the onset of
rain/snow mix across the far northern reaches of the CWA until
early this evening. Have reduced POPs further and limited any
accumulation to less than a half inch.

Meanwhile cirrus cloud shield from southern system has moved north
to the I-44 corridor in Missouri and I-64 in Illinois. Have
adjusted sky trends to account for this.

Temperatures are rising quickly where sunshine is occurring
roughly along the Missouri River in Missouri and portions of
western Illinois. Latest guidance suggests temperatures in the 50s
across central MO this afternoon - so have increased highs a few
more degrees over previous forecast to near 50 in Columbia and
Jefferson City.

No changes were made past 00Z this evening.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 353 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Split flow upper level pattern feature two systems. A nthrn wave
that will begin affecting the FA later this aftn into Thu mrng and a
stronger sthrn stream storm. The sthrn energy is expected to track
from the Red River Valley today into the sthrn Appalachians
tonight. This path will keep the effects from this feature well to
the south of the CWA...though will be a significant impact for
locations from NE TX east into the Carolinas. The nthrn system is
dropping SE out of the Dakotas this mrng with a SFC low in along the
NE/SD border as of 9Z with a bndry extending SE across sthrn
IA...nthrn IL/IN and arcing NE in Canada. The bndry is expected to
slowly sag south thru the day with the low tracking just to the SW
of the bndry...which takes it from ern NE this mrng to somewhere
across far ern KS or wrn MO by 00Z this evng. The SREF and ECMWF
appear to be wrn outliers. This system will be in a weakening mode
as it drops SE thru the region overnight. Overall speed of the system
seems to have slowed some over the past 24 hrs and as such have backed
off on increasing PoPs across the nthrn zones until late this
aftn. The slower system also means thicker cloud cover will be
delayed allowing temps to rise a bit more than previously thought.
Temps may be marginal for snow at the onset of the event as
well...allowing for a possible rain snow mix. Therefore...have
significantly lowered QPF and snow accums prior to 00z and have
them confined primarily along and north of US HWY 36 with snow
accums of less than an inch. Have also delayed the start time of
the ADVY til 21Z due to the above reasoning. Added Brown and Pike
Counties in IL to the ADVY and now have it ending at 15Z
Thu...instead of 12Z.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 353 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Clipper system centered over west central Missouri will continue
to slide to the southeast tonight...with colder air filtering in
from the north. Because of slightly warmer temps over central MO
could still see some mixed rain and snow over this region for a
few hours after 00z Thursday. Otherwise, heaviest snowfall will be
across northeast MO and west central IL. Even though system
weakens as it exits region, will see lingering light snow through
at least 18z Thursday before tapering off. Storm total numbers
will range from 3 to 4 inches far north to less than an inch
southeast of the St. Louis metro area.

Colder air to filter into the region on Thursday, so will have
non-diurnal temps, with mid morning highs most locations, then
either steady or falling temps through the afternoon hours. Thursday
night will be our coldest night as fresh new snowfall, light north
wind and clearing skies allow temps to fall below zero for areas
north of the I-70 corridor. Rest of forecast area will see lows in
the single digits above zero. As for wind chill indicies,
approaching advisory criteria for northeast MO and west central IL,
but it`s too early to issue an advisory at this time.

Beyond that, the extended models continue to have timing, placement
and strength differences with the prolonged period of precipitation
this weekend and into early next week. Best chances of precipitation
continues to be the Saturday night/Sunday timeframe and Monday
night/Tuesday timeframe. Continue to check back frequently for
updates to this event.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 608 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

IFR conditions assoc with snow after 00Z are the primary concern.
An area of low pressure will weaken as it moves from ern NE to SW
MO today spreading snow across the terminals overnight. The next
12 hrs should be quiet with light erly flow and gradually
increasing mid/high clouds. Snow is expected to move into nthrn MO
and w cntrl IL around 00Z and CIGs/VSBYs should quickly drop with
the onset of precip. It is possible that there may be a mix of
ra/sn for a brief prd when precip begins...esp across NE MO but is
expected to transition to snow by evng. Snow will spread south
thru the evng...lasting thru 12Z...except at KUIN where the event
should be winding down. Since IFR conditions are 12-18 hrs
out...tried not to get too specific with CIGs/VSBYs. Am confident
both elements will be lower at some point drng the heaviest
snowfall. Nrly winds begin to ramp up towards the end of the prd.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR for the next 18hrs with light erly flow and gradually
increasing mid/high clouds. Snow should dvlp shortly after 6Z with
CIGs/VSBYs dropping to IFR quickly once snow begins. Tried not to
get too specific with CIGs/VSBYs since the event is 18+ hrs out.
Am confident that both elements will be lower at some point drng
the heaviest snowfall. Winds increase after 12Z Thursday as the
SFC low pulls away strong high pressure builds into the region
from sthrn Canada.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-
     Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 251508
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
908 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 904 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Latest short term model guidance has delayed the onset of
rain/snow mix across the far northern reaches of the CWA until
early this evening. Have reduced POPs further and limited any
accumulation to less than a half inch.

Meanwhile cirrus cloud shield from southern system has moved north
to the I-44 corridor in Missouri and I-64 in Illinois. Have
adjusted sky trends to account for this.

Temperatures are rising quickly where sunshine is occurring
roughly along the Missouri River in Missouri and portions of
western Illinois. Latest guidance suggests temperatures in the 50s
across central MO this afternoon - so have increased highs a few
more degrees over previous forecast to near 50 in Columbia and
Jefferson City.

No changes were made past 00Z this evening.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 353 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Split flow upper level pattern feature two systems. A nthrn wave
that will begin affecting the FA later this aftn into Thu mrng and a
stronger sthrn stream storm. The sthrn energy is expected to track
from the Red River Valley today into the sthrn Appalachians
tonight. This path will keep the effects from this feature well to
the south of the CWA...though will be a significant impact for
locations from NE TX east into the Carolinas. The nthrn system is
dropping SE out of the Dakotas this mrng with a SFC low in along the
NE/SD border as of 9Z with a bndry extending SE across sthrn
IA...nthrn IL/IN and arcing NE in Canada. The bndry is expected to
slowly sag south thru the day with the low tracking just to the SW
of the bndry...which takes it from ern NE this mrng to somewhere
across far ern KS or wrn MO by 00Z this evng. The SREF and ECMWF
appear to be wrn outliers. This system will be in a weakening mode
as it drops SE thru the region overnight. Overall speed of the system
seems to have slowed some over the past 24 hrs and as such have backed
off on increasing PoPs across the nthrn zones until late this
aftn. The slower system also means thicker cloud cover will be
delayed allowing temps to rise a bit more than previously thought.
Temps may be marginal for snow at the onset of the event as
well...allowing for a possible rain snow mix. Therefore...have
significantly lowered QPF and snow accums prior to 00z and have
them confined primarily along and north of US HWY 36 with snow
accums of less than an inch. Have also delayed the start time of
the ADVY til 21Z due to the above reasoning. Added Brown and Pike
Counties in IL to the ADVY and now have it ending at 15Z
Thu...instead of 12Z.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 353 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Clipper system centered over west central Missouri will continue
to slide to the southeast tonight...with colder air filtering in
from the north. Because of slightly warmer temps over central MO
could still see some mixed rain and snow over this region for a
few hours after 00z Thursday. Otherwise, heaviest snowfall will be
across northeast MO and west central IL. Even though system
weakens as it exits region, will see lingering light snow through
at least 18z Thursday before tapering off. Storm total numbers
will range from 3 to 4 inches far north to less than an inch
southeast of the St. Louis metro area.

Colder air to filter into the region on Thursday, so will have
non-diurnal temps, with mid morning highs most locations, then
either steady or falling temps through the afternoon hours. Thursday
night will be our coldest night as fresh new snowfall, light north
wind and clearing skies allow temps to fall below zero for areas
north of the I-70 corridor. Rest of forecast area will see lows in
the single digits above zero. As for wind chill indicies,
approaching advisory criteria for northeast MO and west central IL,
but it`s too early to issue an advisory at this time.

Beyond that, the extended models continue to have timing, placement
and strength differences with the prolonged period of precipitation
this weekend and into early next week. Best chances of precipitation
continues to be the Saturday night/Sunday timeframe and Monday
night/Tuesday timeframe. Continue to check back frequently for
updates to this event.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 608 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

IFR conditions assoc with snow after 00Z are the primary concern.
An area of low pressure will weaken as it moves from ern NE to SW
MO today spreading snow across the terminals overnight. The next
12 hrs should be quiet with light erly flow and gradually
increasing mid/high clouds. Snow is expected to move into nthrn MO
and w cntrl IL around 00Z and CIGs/VSBYs should quickly drop with
the onset of precip. It is possible that there may be a mix of
ra/sn for a brief prd when precip begins...esp across NE MO but is
expected to transition to snow by evng. Snow will spread south
thru the evng...lasting thru 12Z...except at KUIN where the event
should be winding down. Since IFR conditions are 12-18 hrs
out...tried not to get too specific with CIGs/VSBYs. Am confident
both elements will be lower at some point drng the heaviest
snowfall. Nrly winds begin to ramp up towards the end of the prd.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR for the next 18hrs with light erly flow and gradually
increasing mid/high clouds. Snow should dvlp shortly after 6Z with
CIGs/VSBYs dropping to IFR quickly once snow begins. Tried not to
get too specific with CIGs/VSBYs since the event is 18+ hrs out.
Am confident that both elements will be lower at some point drng
the heaviest snowfall. Winds increase after 12Z Thursday as the
SFC low pulls away strong high pressure builds into the region
from sthrn Canada.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-
     Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 251508
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
908 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 904 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Latest short term model guidance has delayed the onset of
rain/snow mix across the far northern reaches of the CWA until
early this evening. Have reduced POPs further and limited any
accumulation to less than a half inch.

Meanwhile cirrus cloud shield from southern system has moved north
to the I-44 corridor in Missouri and I-64 in Illinois. Have
adjusted sky trends to account for this.

Temperatures are rising quickly where sunshine is occurring
roughly along the Missouri River in Missouri and portions of
western Illinois. Latest guidance suggests temperatures in the 50s
across central MO this afternoon - so have increased highs a few
more degrees over previous forecast to near 50 in Columbia and
Jefferson City.

No changes were made past 00Z this evening.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 353 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Split flow upper level pattern feature two systems. A nthrn wave
that will begin affecting the FA later this aftn into Thu mrng and a
stronger sthrn stream storm. The sthrn energy is expected to track
from the Red River Valley today into the sthrn Appalachians
tonight. This path will keep the effects from this feature well to
the south of the CWA...though will be a significant impact for
locations from NE TX east into the Carolinas. The nthrn system is
dropping SE out of the Dakotas this mrng with a SFC low in along the
NE/SD border as of 9Z with a bndry extending SE across sthrn
IA...nthrn IL/IN and arcing NE in Canada. The bndry is expected to
slowly sag south thru the day with the low tracking just to the SW
of the bndry...which takes it from ern NE this mrng to somewhere
across far ern KS or wrn MO by 00Z this evng. The SREF and ECMWF
appear to be wrn outliers. This system will be in a weakening mode
as it drops SE thru the region overnight. Overall speed of the system
seems to have slowed some over the past 24 hrs and as such have backed
off on increasing PoPs across the nthrn zones until late this
aftn. The slower system also means thicker cloud cover will be
delayed allowing temps to rise a bit more than previously thought.
Temps may be marginal for snow at the onset of the event as
well...allowing for a possible rain snow mix. Therefore...have
significantly lowered QPF and snow accums prior to 00z and have
them confined primarily along and north of US HWY 36 with snow
accums of less than an inch. Have also delayed the start time of
the ADVY til 21Z due to the above reasoning. Added Brown and Pike
Counties in IL to the ADVY and now have it ending at 15Z
Thu...instead of 12Z.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 353 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Clipper system centered over west central Missouri will continue
to slide to the southeast tonight...with colder air filtering in
from the north. Because of slightly warmer temps over central MO
could still see some mixed rain and snow over this region for a
few hours after 00z Thursday. Otherwise, heaviest snowfall will be
across northeast MO and west central IL. Even though system
weakens as it exits region, will see lingering light snow through
at least 18z Thursday before tapering off. Storm total numbers
will range from 3 to 4 inches far north to less than an inch
southeast of the St. Louis metro area.

Colder air to filter into the region on Thursday, so will have
non-diurnal temps, with mid morning highs most locations, then
either steady or falling temps through the afternoon hours. Thursday
night will be our coldest night as fresh new snowfall, light north
wind and clearing skies allow temps to fall below zero for areas
north of the I-70 corridor. Rest of forecast area will see lows in
the single digits above zero. As for wind chill indicies,
approaching advisory criteria for northeast MO and west central IL,
but it`s too early to issue an advisory at this time.

Beyond that, the extended models continue to have timing, placement
and strength differences with the prolonged period of precipitation
this weekend and into early next week. Best chances of precipitation
continues to be the Saturday night/Sunday timeframe and Monday
night/Tuesday timeframe. Continue to check back frequently for
updates to this event.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 608 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

IFR conditions assoc with snow after 00Z are the primary concern.
An area of low pressure will weaken as it moves from ern NE to SW
MO today spreading snow across the terminals overnight. The next
12 hrs should be quiet with light erly flow and gradually
increasing mid/high clouds. Snow is expected to move into nthrn MO
and w cntrl IL around 00Z and CIGs/VSBYs should quickly drop with
the onset of precip. It is possible that there may be a mix of
ra/sn for a brief prd when precip begins...esp across NE MO but is
expected to transition to snow by evng. Snow will spread south
thru the evng...lasting thru 12Z...except at KUIN where the event
should be winding down. Since IFR conditions are 12-18 hrs
out...tried not to get too specific with CIGs/VSBYs. Am confident
both elements will be lower at some point drng the heaviest
snowfall. Nrly winds begin to ramp up towards the end of the prd.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR for the next 18hrs with light erly flow and gradually
increasing mid/high clouds. Snow should dvlp shortly after 6Z with
CIGs/VSBYs dropping to IFR quickly once snow begins. Tried not to
get too specific with CIGs/VSBYs since the event is 18+ hrs out.
Am confident that both elements will be lower at some point drng
the heaviest snowfall. Winds increase after 12Z Thursday as the
SFC low pulls away strong high pressure builds into the region
from sthrn Canada.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-
     Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 251508
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
908 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 904 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Latest short term model guidance has delayed the onset of
rain/snow mix across the far northern reaches of the CWA until
early this evening. Have reduced POPs further and limited any
accumulation to less than a half inch.

Meanwhile cirrus cloud shield from southern system has moved north
to the I-44 corridor in Missouri and I-64 in Illinois. Have
adjusted sky trends to account for this.

Temperatures are rising quickly where sunshine is occurring
roughly along the Missouri River in Missouri and portions of
western Illinois. Latest guidance suggests temperatures in the 50s
across central MO this afternoon - so have increased highs a few
more degrees over previous forecast to near 50 in Columbia and
Jefferson City.

No changes were made past 00Z this evening.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 353 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Split flow upper level pattern feature two systems. A nthrn wave
that will begin affecting the FA later this aftn into Thu mrng and a
stronger sthrn stream storm. The sthrn energy is expected to track
from the Red River Valley today into the sthrn Appalachians
tonight. This path will keep the effects from this feature well to
the south of the CWA...though will be a significant impact for
locations from NE TX east into the Carolinas. The nthrn system is
dropping SE out of the Dakotas this mrng with a SFC low in along the
NE/SD border as of 9Z with a bndry extending SE across sthrn
IA...nthrn IL/IN and arcing NE in Canada. The bndry is expected to
slowly sag south thru the day with the low tracking just to the SW
of the bndry...which takes it from ern NE this mrng to somewhere
across far ern KS or wrn MO by 00Z this evng. The SREF and ECMWF
appear to be wrn outliers. This system will be in a weakening mode
as it drops SE thru the region overnight. Overall speed of the system
seems to have slowed some over the past 24 hrs and as such have backed
off on increasing PoPs across the nthrn zones until late this
aftn. The slower system also means thicker cloud cover will be
delayed allowing temps to rise a bit more than previously thought.
Temps may be marginal for snow at the onset of the event as
well...allowing for a possible rain snow mix. Therefore...have
significantly lowered QPF and snow accums prior to 00z and have
them confined primarily along and north of US HWY 36 with snow
accums of less than an inch. Have also delayed the start time of
the ADVY til 21Z due to the above reasoning. Added Brown and Pike
Counties in IL to the ADVY and now have it ending at 15Z
Thu...instead of 12Z.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 353 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Clipper system centered over west central Missouri will continue
to slide to the southeast tonight...with colder air filtering in
from the north. Because of slightly warmer temps over central MO
could still see some mixed rain and snow over this region for a
few hours after 00z Thursday. Otherwise, heaviest snowfall will be
across northeast MO and west central IL. Even though system
weakens as it exits region, will see lingering light snow through
at least 18z Thursday before tapering off. Storm total numbers
will range from 3 to 4 inches far north to less than an inch
southeast of the St. Louis metro area.

Colder air to filter into the region on Thursday, so will have
non-diurnal temps, with mid morning highs most locations, then
either steady or falling temps through the afternoon hours. Thursday
night will be our coldest night as fresh new snowfall, light north
wind and clearing skies allow temps to fall below zero for areas
north of the I-70 corridor. Rest of forecast area will see lows in
the single digits above zero. As for wind chill indicies,
approaching advisory criteria for northeast MO and west central IL,
but it`s too early to issue an advisory at this time.

Beyond that, the extended models continue to have timing, placement
and strength differences with the prolonged period of precipitation
this weekend and into early next week. Best chances of precipitation
continues to be the Saturday night/Sunday timeframe and Monday
night/Tuesday timeframe. Continue to check back frequently for
updates to this event.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 608 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

IFR conditions assoc with snow after 00Z are the primary concern.
An area of low pressure will weaken as it moves from ern NE to SW
MO today spreading snow across the terminals overnight. The next
12 hrs should be quiet with light erly flow and gradually
increasing mid/high clouds. Snow is expected to move into nthrn MO
and w cntrl IL around 00Z and CIGs/VSBYs should quickly drop with
the onset of precip. It is possible that there may be a mix of
ra/sn for a brief prd when precip begins...esp across NE MO but is
expected to transition to snow by evng. Snow will spread south
thru the evng...lasting thru 12Z...except at KUIN where the event
should be winding down. Since IFR conditions are 12-18 hrs
out...tried not to get too specific with CIGs/VSBYs. Am confident
both elements will be lower at some point drng the heaviest
snowfall. Nrly winds begin to ramp up towards the end of the prd.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR for the next 18hrs with light erly flow and gradually
increasing mid/high clouds. Snow should dvlp shortly after 6Z with
CIGs/VSBYs dropping to IFR quickly once snow begins. Tried not to
get too specific with CIGs/VSBYs since the event is 18+ hrs out.
Am confident that both elements will be lower at some point drng
the heaviest snowfall. Winds increase after 12Z Thursday as the
SFC low pulls away strong high pressure builds into the region
from sthrn Canada.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-
     Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 251227
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
627 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 353 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Split flow upper level pattern feature two systems. A nthrn wave
that will begin affecting the FA later this aftn into Thu mrng and a
stronger sthrn stream storm. The sthrn energy is expected to track
from the Red River Valley today into the sthrn Appalachians
tonight. This path will keep the effects from this feature well to
the south of the CWA...though will be a significant impact for
locations from NE TX east into the Carolinas. The nthrn system is
dropping SE out of the Dakotas this mrng with a SFC low in along the
NE/SD border as of 9Z with a bndry extending SE across sthrn
IA...nthrn IL/IN and arcing NE in Canada. The bndry is expected to
slowly sag south thru the day with the low tracking just to the SW
of the bndry...which takes it from ern NE this mrng to somewhere
across far ern KS or wrn MO by 00Z this evng. The SREF and ECMWF
appear to be wrn outliers. This system will be in a weakening mode
as it drops SE thru the region overnight. Overall speed of the system
seems to have slowed some over the past 24 hrs and as such have backed
off on increasing PoPs across the nthrn zones until late this
aftn. The slower system also means thicker cloud cover will be
delayed allowing temps to rise a bit more than previously thought.
Temps may be marginal for snow at the onset of the event as
well...allowing for a possible rain snow mix. Therefore...have
significantly lowered QPF and snow accums prior to 00z and have
them confined primarily along and north of US HWY 36 with snow
accums of less than an inch. Have also delayed the start time of
the ADVY til 21Z due to the above reasoning. Added Brown and Pike
Counties in IL to the ADVY and now have it ending at 15Z
Thu...instead of 12Z.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 353 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Clipper system centered over west central Missouri will continue
to slide to the southeast tonight...with colder air filtering in
from the north. Because of slightly warmer temps over central MO
could still see some mixed rain and snow over this region for a
few hours after 00z Thursday. Otherwise, heaviest snowfall will be
across northeast MO and west central IL. Even though system
weakens as it exits region, will see lingering light snow through
at least 18z Thursday before tapering off. Storm total numbers
will range from 3 to 4 inches far north to less than an inch
southeast of the St. Louis metro area.

Colder air to filter into the region on Thursday, so will have
non-diurnal temps, with mid morning highs most locations, then
either steady or falling temps through the afternoon hours. Thursday
night will be our coldest night as fresh new snowfall, light north
wind and clearing skies allow temps to fall below zero for areas
north of the I-70 corridor. Rest of forecast area will see lows in
the single digits above zero. As for wind chill indicies,
approaching advisory criteria for northeast MO and west central IL,
but it`s too early to issue an advisory at this time.

Beyond that, the extended models continue to have timing, placement
and strength differences with the prolonged period of precipitation
this weekend and into early next week. Best chances of precipitation
continues to be the Saturday night/Sunday timeframe and Monday
night/Tuesday timeframe. Continue to check back frequently for
updates to this event.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 608 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

IFR conditions assoc with snow after 00Z are the primary concern.
An area of low pressure will weaken as it moves from ern NE to SW
MO today spreading snow across the terminals overnight. The next
12 hrs should be quiet with light erly flow and gradually
increasing mid/high clouds. Snow is expected to move into nthrn MO
and w cntrl IL around 00Z and CIGs/VSBYs should quickly drop with
the onset of precip. It is possible that there may be a mix of
ra/sn for a brief prd when precip begins...esp across NE MO but is
expected to transition to snow by evng. Snow will spread south
thru the evng...lasting thru 12Z...except at KUIN where the event
should be winding down. Since IFR conditions are 12-18 hrs
out...tried not to get too specific with CIGs/VSBYs. Am confident
both elements will be lower at some point drng the heaviest
snowfall. Nrly winds begin to ramp up towards the end of the prd.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR for the next 18hrs with light erly flow and gradually
increasing mid/high clouds. Snow should dvlp shortly after 6Z with
CIGs/VSBYs dropping to IFR quickly once snow begins. Tried not to
get too specific with CIGs/VSBYs since the event is 18+ hrs out.
Am confident that both elements will be lower at some point drng
the heaviest snowfall. Winds increase after 12Z Thursday as the
SFC low pulls away strong high pressure builds into the region
from sthrn Canada.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-
     Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 251227
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
627 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 353 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Split flow upper level pattern feature two systems. A nthrn wave
that will begin affecting the FA later this aftn into Thu mrng and a
stronger sthrn stream storm. The sthrn energy is expected to track
from the Red River Valley today into the sthrn Appalachians
tonight. This path will keep the effects from this feature well to
the south of the CWA...though will be a significant impact for
locations from NE TX east into the Carolinas. The nthrn system is
dropping SE out of the Dakotas this mrng with a SFC low in along the
NE/SD border as of 9Z with a bndry extending SE across sthrn
IA...nthrn IL/IN and arcing NE in Canada. The bndry is expected to
slowly sag south thru the day with the low tracking just to the SW
of the bndry...which takes it from ern NE this mrng to somewhere
across far ern KS or wrn MO by 00Z this evng. The SREF and ECMWF
appear to be wrn outliers. This system will be in a weakening mode
as it drops SE thru the region overnight. Overall speed of the system
seems to have slowed some over the past 24 hrs and as such have backed
off on increasing PoPs across the nthrn zones until late this
aftn. The slower system also means thicker cloud cover will be
delayed allowing temps to rise a bit more than previously thought.
Temps may be marginal for snow at the onset of the event as
well...allowing for a possible rain snow mix. Therefore...have
significantly lowered QPF and snow accums prior to 00z and have
them confined primarily along and north of US HWY 36 with snow
accums of less than an inch. Have also delayed the start time of
the ADVY til 21Z due to the above reasoning. Added Brown and Pike
Counties in IL to the ADVY and now have it ending at 15Z
Thu...instead of 12Z.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 353 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Clipper system centered over west central Missouri will continue
to slide to the southeast tonight...with colder air filtering in
from the north. Because of slightly warmer temps over central MO
could still see some mixed rain and snow over this region for a
few hours after 00z Thursday. Otherwise, heaviest snowfall will be
across northeast MO and west central IL. Even though system
weakens as it exits region, will see lingering light snow through
at least 18z Thursday before tapering off. Storm total numbers
will range from 3 to 4 inches far north to less than an inch
southeast of the St. Louis metro area.

Colder air to filter into the region on Thursday, so will have
non-diurnal temps, with mid morning highs most locations, then
either steady or falling temps through the afternoon hours. Thursday
night will be our coldest night as fresh new snowfall, light north
wind and clearing skies allow temps to fall below zero for areas
north of the I-70 corridor. Rest of forecast area will see lows in
the single digits above zero. As for wind chill indicies,
approaching advisory criteria for northeast MO and west central IL,
but it`s too early to issue an advisory at this time.

Beyond that, the extended models continue to have timing, placement
and strength differences with the prolonged period of precipitation
this weekend and into early next week. Best chances of precipitation
continues to be the Saturday night/Sunday timeframe and Monday
night/Tuesday timeframe. Continue to check back frequently for
updates to this event.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 608 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

IFR conditions assoc with snow after 00Z are the primary concern.
An area of low pressure will weaken as it moves from ern NE to SW
MO today spreading snow across the terminals overnight. The next
12 hrs should be quiet with light erly flow and gradually
increasing mid/high clouds. Snow is expected to move into nthrn MO
and w cntrl IL around 00Z and CIGs/VSBYs should quickly drop with
the onset of precip. It is possible that there may be a mix of
ra/sn for a brief prd when precip begins...esp across NE MO but is
expected to transition to snow by evng. Snow will spread south
thru the evng...lasting thru 12Z...except at KUIN where the event
should be winding down. Since IFR conditions are 12-18 hrs
out...tried not to get too specific with CIGs/VSBYs. Am confident
both elements will be lower at some point drng the heaviest
snowfall. Nrly winds begin to ramp up towards the end of the prd.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR for the next 18hrs with light erly flow and gradually
increasing mid/high clouds. Snow should dvlp shortly after 6Z with
CIGs/VSBYs dropping to IFR quickly once snow begins. Tried not to
get too specific with CIGs/VSBYs since the event is 18+ hrs out.
Am confident that both elements will be lower at some point drng
the heaviest snowfall. Winds increase after 12Z Thursday as the
SFC low pulls away strong high pressure builds into the region
from sthrn Canada.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-
     Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 251122
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
522 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

...Update to Aviation for 12Z TAFS...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Milder temperatures are in store for one more day before the next
Arctic surge arrives late tonight. Southerly winds, considerable
sunshine and a shrinking snowfield over the Ozark Plateau will allow
temperatures to rise into the 40s with some lower and possibly
middle 50s from southeastern Kansas into far west central
Missouri.

The clipper system that has been advertised will slide quickly
southeastward into Missouri this evening and across southern
Missouri into early Thursday morning. Precipitation will arrive to
central Missouri by late evening then spread southeastward. The
best chance for light snowfall will be to the northeast of the
vorticity maxima and diffuse surface low that will push southeast
across the Missouri Ozarks late tonight. Areas of central Missouri
into the eastern Ozarks could see up to an inch of snow with
lesser amounts to the west.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Areas of light snow or flurries will linger Thursday morning as
the clipper exits to the southeast. Strong cold air advection will
follow the passage of this system will temperatures falling
through the 20s toward the teens by late afternoon. Lows Thursday
night will fall into single digits and may approach zero across
central Missouri. A steady northerly wind will produce wind chill
values in the single digits below zero and as cold as 10 below
late Thursday night into Friday morning. With 850 MB temperatures
around 15 degrees Celsius below temperatures Friday will struggle
to climb to around 20 degrees.

Models continue to advertise the potential for accumulating wintry
precipitation this weekend. While details in regards to precipitation
type, amounts and timing remain uncertain confidence is increasing
that the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern Kansas will see wintry
precipitation this weekend.

The upper pattern will become more zonal as a deep upper level
trough evolves out west. A series of disturbances will eject
northeastward from this trough across the region while a frontal
zone develops underneath the westerly to southwesterly flow aloft.
The first round of precipitation will arrive Saturday and Saturday
night. It appears that this initial round of precipitation will be
primarily in the form of snow as a deep Arctic airmass remains
entrenched. Precipitation types become more uncertain with time as
warm air advection develops over the cold dome. Precipitation may
transition to a wintry mix later Saturday night into Sunday and
Sunday night. Some areas of southern Missouri may even rise above
freezing Sunday. However it is too early to pin down precipitation
types and amounts given the complexity of this system.

For now closely monitor the latest weather information and forecasts
as we approach the weekend.

The unsettled pattern continues into early next with considerable
uncertainty remaining on precipitation types.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 520 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...Mid level clouds are currently
spreading north into southern Missouri as a storm system tracks
east across the southern plains early this morning. This system
will continue to track east and remain south of the area and no
precipitation will occur with this system, as its only affects on
the area will be the mid level clouds.

Southerly winds will prevail across the TAF sites today and much
of this evening.

A cold front and upper level disturbance will then dive south
across the area late this evening into the overnight hours. Winds
will shift to the northwest and increase and become quite gusty as
an arctic air mass begins to spread into the region. Flurries or light
snow will also be possible early Thursday morning. The better
accumulation chance will be northeast of the TAF sites but light
accumulations of less than one half inch of snow will be possible
early Thursday morning at the TAF sites.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KEAX 251120
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
520 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 412 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Water vapor showing well anticipated shortwave trough dropping through
the northern Rockies this morning...with associated sfc reflection
now analyzed along the central Nebraska/South Dakota border. Out
ahead of the sfc low...latest sfc obs show a stationary boundary
extending east-southeast through southern Iowa into northern Illinois
and Indiana. With time today...main shortwave and sfc low will
continue tracking along this boundary before passing over the lower
Missouri Valley later tonight. As has been advertised in recent
days...region remains in the cross-hairs for accumulating snowfall
later tonight as system passes overhead. One would think that the
fcst would have been fairly easy this morning with us being so close
to event start time...but that could not be further from the truth as
latest 00z guidance has come in with a more northward track of the
main sfc low later tonight. With this being the case...our region stands
an excellent chance of warming quite a bit higher than previously
thought...which adds a fair amount of complexity to the going
forecast. Out ahead of the low...southwest downslope winds will
combine with modest warm air advection to allow temperatures to reach
the lower to middle 50s across west-central Missouri and eastern
Kansas to include the KC and STJ metros. To the east...a lingering
snowpack remains in place along and north of the Missouri River which
will likely result in a fairly impressive thermal gradient later this
afternoon. Meanwhile areas north of Route 36 also stand a decent
chance of warming up today as much of far northern Missouri also remains
snow free. In any event...warmer temps and the overall delay of the
system/s arrival by a few hours has resulted in changes to the fcst
to include snow total amounts.

As a result of the delayed arrival...latest models show precip
struggling to work into the area by 21z. With warmer temps in
place...precip will likely start out as rain across much of the
area...before cold air finally begins working into the region later
in the evening behind the main cold front. With limited winter precip
expected this afternoon...have elected to delay the winter weather
advisory start time until 21z this afternoon...and that may still be
a bit to early. In any event...models show main QPF max sliding
southeast over the area mainly between 00 and 06z tonight...with
precip gradually coming to an end from west to east during the early
morning hrs. Considering the amount of warming during the day...warm
ground temps should limit overall accumulations early on...before
precip rates increase heading into the early overnight hrs. In terms
of accumulations...expect maybe an inch in the greater KC area...with
even less across our eastern Kansas and our west-central Missouri
zones south of I-70. Further east where the heavier precip is
expected...have trimmed back on snowfall amounts slightly as fast
storm movement and delayed precip arrival time will likely lead to
slightly lower amounts. In general across the advisory area...expect
2-4" across most locations...however 3-5" will be possible north of
Kirksville before all is said and done. Cannot rule out a 6" report
up there but did not have enough confidence to even consider a
possible warning upgrade. As alluded to above...best accumulations
likely to occur after 00z...hence supporting the decision to slide
the advisory start time to the right.

Another factor to consider overnight will be the strong winds
with cold air advection following fropa. Current BUFKIT momentum
transfer tool output suggesting gusts in the mid to upper 30 kt range
later tonight. Combine this with any falling snow....blowing and
drifting will certainly be a possibility overnight.

Lingering light snow shwrs to come to an end by mid morning Thursday
as drier air and strong high pressure builds into the area. For the
remainder of the short term...focus will be on well below normal
temperatures as strong high pressure combines with fresh snow and clear
skies aloft. Have generally undercut guidance for temps both Thu and
Fri with Fri morning shaping up to be one of the coldest mornings of
the year /subzero at KCI?/. Any precip with this weekend/s system to
hold off until later on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Models continue to advertise an active weather pattern for much of
the extended range forecast. Two main features of interest that will
be the driving forces for sensible weather across our area will be:
1) An upper level trough across the central Rockies 2) A surface
front that will sink south through the forecast area and stall south
of the area.

On Saturday, an upper level trough will be sinking slow south across
the central Rockies. Further east, across the eastern half of the
CONUS, the upper flow will become quasi-zonal. Several shortwave
impulses will eject out from the upper level trough and into the
local area. Cold air will already be in place on Saturday and
precipitation should begin as snow...spreading from west to east
through the afternoon. Snow will continue through Saturday night.
Sunday, a cold front will sink south through the area reinforcing
the cold air and continue snow chances. However, as we get into
Sunday night we begin to lose ice crystals in the snow growth
zone...especially across the southern CWA...and snow may mix with or
change over to sleet.

Model solutions begin to diverge in the Monday to Tuesday timeframe.
On Monday, model differences revolve around how quickly the cold
front begins to lift back north towards the forecast area. Although,
precipitation continues to look likely on Monday, P-Type is more in
question with the front lifting back northward. Model soundings
indicate the potential for freezing rain to the south a wintry mix
across the central CWA with the northern CWA remaining snow. Tuesday
the main concern will be the upper level trough across the Rockies.
The GFS is faster moving it through the area on Tuesday bringing
another round of snow to the forecast area. The EC is about 24 hours
slower in moving the trough eastward into the local area. This
solution would bring a lull in precipitation on Tuesday with another
round of precipitation back in on Wednesday. Have maintained a
blended solution through this timeframe until forecast details can
be fine tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 520 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR conditions to continue much of the day with southwest winds
between 10-15 kts. By early evening...conditions will quickly
deteriorate to MVFR and eventually IFR and long anticipated storm
system moves overhead. Precip initially in the form of a RA/SN mix
will gradually change over to all SN as colder air filters into the
area. Terminals standing the best chance of seeing IFR VSBYs will be
STJ and MCI...with lower probabilities at remaining sites further south.
Precip will come to an end by 4z with low-end MVFR cigs remaining in
place through the duration of the fcst period. After fropa...winds
will quickly increase from the north by mid/late evening with north
winds gusting up to 35 kts overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ002>008-014>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...32






000
FXUS63 KEAX 251120
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
520 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 412 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Water vapor showing well anticipated shortwave trough dropping through
the northern Rockies this morning...with associated sfc reflection
now analyzed along the central Nebraska/South Dakota border. Out
ahead of the sfc low...latest sfc obs show a stationary boundary
extending east-southeast through southern Iowa into northern Illinois
and Indiana. With time today...main shortwave and sfc low will
continue tracking along this boundary before passing over the lower
Missouri Valley later tonight. As has been advertised in recent
days...region remains in the cross-hairs for accumulating snowfall
later tonight as system passes overhead. One would think that the
fcst would have been fairly easy this morning with us being so close
to event start time...but that could not be further from the truth as
latest 00z guidance has come in with a more northward track of the
main sfc low later tonight. With this being the case...our region stands
an excellent chance of warming quite a bit higher than previously
thought...which adds a fair amount of complexity to the going
forecast. Out ahead of the low...southwest downslope winds will
combine with modest warm air advection to allow temperatures to reach
the lower to middle 50s across west-central Missouri and eastern
Kansas to include the KC and STJ metros. To the east...a lingering
snowpack remains in place along and north of the Missouri River which
will likely result in a fairly impressive thermal gradient later this
afternoon. Meanwhile areas north of Route 36 also stand a decent
chance of warming up today as much of far northern Missouri also remains
snow free. In any event...warmer temps and the overall delay of the
system/s arrival by a few hours has resulted in changes to the fcst
to include snow total amounts.

As a result of the delayed arrival...latest models show precip
struggling to work into the area by 21z. With warmer temps in
place...precip will likely start out as rain across much of the
area...before cold air finally begins working into the region later
in the evening behind the main cold front. With limited winter precip
expected this afternoon...have elected to delay the winter weather
advisory start time until 21z this afternoon...and that may still be
a bit to early. In any event...models show main QPF max sliding
southeast over the area mainly between 00 and 06z tonight...with
precip gradually coming to an end from west to east during the early
morning hrs. Considering the amount of warming during the day...warm
ground temps should limit overall accumulations early on...before
precip rates increase heading into the early overnight hrs. In terms
of accumulations...expect maybe an inch in the greater KC area...with
even less across our eastern Kansas and our west-central Missouri
zones south of I-70. Further east where the heavier precip is
expected...have trimmed back on snowfall amounts slightly as fast
storm movement and delayed precip arrival time will likely lead to
slightly lower amounts. In general across the advisory area...expect
2-4" across most locations...however 3-5" will be possible north of
Kirksville before all is said and done. Cannot rule out a 6" report
up there but did not have enough confidence to even consider a
possible warning upgrade. As alluded to above...best accumulations
likely to occur after 00z...hence supporting the decision to slide
the advisory start time to the right.

Another factor to consider overnight will be the strong winds
with cold air advection following fropa. Current BUFKIT momentum
transfer tool output suggesting gusts in the mid to upper 30 kt range
later tonight. Combine this with any falling snow....blowing and
drifting will certainly be a possibility overnight.

Lingering light snow shwrs to come to an end by mid morning Thursday
as drier air and strong high pressure builds into the area. For the
remainder of the short term...focus will be on well below normal
temperatures as strong high pressure combines with fresh snow and clear
skies aloft. Have generally undercut guidance for temps both Thu and
Fri with Fri morning shaping up to be one of the coldest mornings of
the year /subzero at KCI?/. Any precip with this weekend/s system to
hold off until later on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Models continue to advertise an active weather pattern for much of
the extended range forecast. Two main features of interest that will
be the driving forces for sensible weather across our area will be:
1) An upper level trough across the central Rockies 2) A surface
front that will sink south through the forecast area and stall south
of the area.

On Saturday, an upper level trough will be sinking slow south across
the central Rockies. Further east, across the eastern half of the
CONUS, the upper flow will become quasi-zonal. Several shortwave
impulses will eject out from the upper level trough and into the
local area. Cold air will already be in place on Saturday and
precipitation should begin as snow...spreading from west to east
through the afternoon. Snow will continue through Saturday night.
Sunday, a cold front will sink south through the area reinforcing
the cold air and continue snow chances. However, as we get into
Sunday night we begin to lose ice crystals in the snow growth
zone...especially across the southern CWA...and snow may mix with or
change over to sleet.

Model solutions begin to diverge in the Monday to Tuesday timeframe.
On Monday, model differences revolve around how quickly the cold
front begins to lift back north towards the forecast area. Although,
precipitation continues to look likely on Monday, P-Type is more in
question with the front lifting back northward. Model soundings
indicate the potential for freezing rain to the south a wintry mix
across the central CWA with the northern CWA remaining snow. Tuesday
the main concern will be the upper level trough across the Rockies.
The GFS is faster moving it through the area on Tuesday bringing
another round of snow to the forecast area. The EC is about 24 hours
slower in moving the trough eastward into the local area. This
solution would bring a lull in precipitation on Tuesday with another
round of precipitation back in on Wednesday. Have maintained a
blended solution through this timeframe until forecast details can
be fine tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 520 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR conditions to continue much of the day with southwest winds
between 10-15 kts. By early evening...conditions will quickly
deteriorate to MVFR and eventually IFR and long anticipated storm
system moves overhead. Precip initially in the form of a RA/SN mix
will gradually change over to all SN as colder air filters into the
area. Terminals standing the best chance of seeing IFR VSBYs will be
STJ and MCI...with lower probabilities at remaining sites further south.
Precip will come to an end by 4z with low-end MVFR cigs remaining in
place through the duration of the fcst period. After fropa...winds
will quickly increase from the north by mid/late evening with north
winds gusting up to 35 kts overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ002>008-014>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KEAX 251012
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
412 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 412 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Water vapor showing well anticipated shortwave trough dropping through
the northern Rockies this morning...with associated sfc reflection
now analyzed along the central Nebraska/South Dakota border. Out
ahead of the sfc low...latest sfc obs show a stationary boundary
extending east-southeast through southern Iowa into northern Illinois
and Indiana. With time today...main shortwave and sfc low will
continue tracking along this boundary before passing over the lower
Missouri Valley later tonight. As has been advertised in recent
days...region remains in the cross-hairs for accumulating snowfall
later tonight as system passes overhead. One would think that the
fcst would have been fairly easy this morning with us being so close
to event start time...but that could not be further from the truth as
latest 00z guidance has come in with a more northward track of the
main sfc low later tonight. With this being the case...our region stands
an excellent chance of warming quite a bit higher than previously
thought which adds a fair amount of complexity to the going
forecast. Out ahead of the low...southwest downslope winds will
combine with modest warm air advection to allow temperatures to reach
the lower to middle 50s across the western zones to include the KC
and STJ metros. To the east...a lingering snowpack remains in place
along and north of the Missouri River which will likely result in a
fairly impressive thermal gradient later this afternoon. Meanwhile
areas north of Route 36 also stand a decent chance of warming up
today as these areas also remain snow free. In any event...warmer
temps and the overall delay by a few hours of when precip will start
across our region has resulted in changes to the fcst to include snow
amounts.

As a result of the delayed arrival time...latest models show precip
struggling to work into the area by 21z. With warmer temps in
place...precip will likely start out as rain across much of the
area...before cold air finally begins working into the region later
in the evening behind the main cold front. With limited winter precip
expected this afternoon...have elected to delay the winter weather
advisory start time until 21z this afternoon...and that may still be
a bit to early. In any event...models show main QPF max sliding
southeast over the area mainly between 00 and 06z tonight...with
precip gradually coming to an end from west to east during the early
morning hrs. Considering the amount of warming during the day...warm
ground temps should limit overall accumulations early on...before
precip rates increase heading into the early overnight hrs. In terms
of accumulations...expect maybe an inch in the greater KC
area...with even less across our eastern Kansas and west-central
Missouri zones. Further east with the heaviest precip is expected to
fall...have trimmed back on snowfall amounts slightly as fast storm
movement and delayed precip arrival time will likely lead to slightly
lower amounts. In general across the advisory area...expect 2-4"
across most locations...however 3-5" will be possible north of
Kirksville before all is said and done. Cannot rule out a 6" report
up there but did not have enough confidence to even consider a
possible warning upgrade. As alluded to above...best accumulations
likely to occur after 00z...hence supporting the decision to slide
the advisory start time to the right.

Another factor to consider overnight will be the strong winds
with cold air advection following fropa. Current BUFKIT momentum
transfer tool output suggesting gusts in the mid to upper 30 kt range
later tonight. Combine this with any falling snow....blowing and
drifting will certainly be a possibility overnight.

Lingering light snow shwrs to come to an end by mid morning Thursday
as drier air and strong high pressure builds into the area. For the
remainder of the short term...focus will be on well below normal
temperatures as strong high pressure combines with fresh snow and clear
skies aloft. Have generally undercut guidance for temps both Thu and
Fri with Fri morning shaping up to be one of the coldest mornings of
the year. Any precip with this weekend/s system to hold off until
later on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Models continue to advertise an active weather pattern for much of
the extended range forecast. Two main features of interest that will
be the driving forces for sensible weather across our area will be:
1) An upper level trough across the central Rockies 2) A surface
front that will sink south through the forecast area and stall south
of the area.

On Saturday, an upper level trough will be sinking slow south across
the central Rockies. Further east, across the eastern half of the
CONUS, the upper flow will become quasi-zonal. Several shortwave
impulses will eject out from the upper level trough and into the
local area. Cold air will already be in place on Saturday and
precipitation should begin as snow...spreading from west to east
through the afternoon. Snow will continue through Saturday night.
Sunday, a cold front will sink south through the area reinforcing
the cold air and continue snow chances. However, as we get into
Sunday night we begin to lose ice crystals in the snow growth
zone...especially across the southern CWA...and snow may mix with or
change over to sleet.

Model solutions begin to diverge in the Monday to Tuesday timeframe.
On Monday, model differences revolve around how quickly the cold
front begins to lift back north towards the forecast area. Although,
precipitation continues to look likely on Monday, P-Type is more in
question with the front lifting back northward. Model soundings
indicate the potential for freezing rain to the south a wintry mix
across the central CWA with the northern CWA remaining snow. Tuesday
the main concern will be the upper level trough across the Rockies.
The GFS is faster moving it through the area on Tuesday bringing
another round of snow to the forecast area. The EC is about 24 hours
slower in moving the trough eastward into the local area. This
solution would bring a lull in precipitation on Tuesday with another
round of precipitation back in on Wednesday. Have maintained a
blended solution through this timeframe until forecast details can
be fine tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Latest model guidance suggests that precip chances will arrive a bit
later than previous TAF issuance. Precip looks to move in tomorrow
afternoon and depending on the arrival of the system, precip will
likely begin as rain before changing over to snow. There may be a
brief period of a rain/snow mix or wintry precip mix before the
changeover to all snow occurs. Timing on precip will likely change as
this system develops, but current forecast indicates changeover to occur
between a 23Z-01Z time frame. MVFR cigs will be possible as the
precip moves into the region.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ002>008-014>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...PMM






000
FXUS63 KEAX 251012
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
412 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 412 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Water vapor showing well anticipated shortwave trough dropping through
the northern Rockies this morning...with associated sfc reflection
now analyzed along the central Nebraska/South Dakota border. Out
ahead of the sfc low...latest sfc obs show a stationary boundary
extending east-southeast through southern Iowa into northern Illinois
and Indiana. With time today...main shortwave and sfc low will
continue tracking along this boundary before passing over the lower
Missouri Valley later tonight. As has been advertised in recent
days...region remains in the cross-hairs for accumulating snowfall
later tonight as system passes overhead. One would think that the
fcst would have been fairly easy this morning with us being so close
to event start time...but that could not be further from the truth as
latest 00z guidance has come in with a more northward track of the
main sfc low later tonight. With this being the case...our region stands
an excellent chance of warming quite a bit higher than previously
thought which adds a fair amount of complexity to the going
forecast. Out ahead of the low...southwest downslope winds will
combine with modest warm air advection to allow temperatures to reach
the lower to middle 50s across the western zones to include the KC
and STJ metros. To the east...a lingering snowpack remains in place
along and north of the Missouri River which will likely result in a
fairly impressive thermal gradient later this afternoon. Meanwhile
areas north of Route 36 also stand a decent chance of warming up
today as these areas also remain snow free. In any event...warmer
temps and the overall delay by a few hours of when precip will start
across our region has resulted in changes to the fcst to include snow
amounts.

As a result of the delayed arrival time...latest models show precip
struggling to work into the area by 21z. With warmer temps in
place...precip will likely start out as rain across much of the
area...before cold air finally begins working into the region later
in the evening behind the main cold front. With limited winter precip
expected this afternoon...have elected to delay the winter weather
advisory start time until 21z this afternoon...and that may still be
a bit to early. In any event...models show main QPF max sliding
southeast over the area mainly between 00 and 06z tonight...with
precip gradually coming to an end from west to east during the early
morning hrs. Considering the amount of warming during the day...warm
ground temps should limit overall accumulations early on...before
precip rates increase heading into the early overnight hrs. In terms
of accumulations...expect maybe an inch in the greater KC
area...with even less across our eastern Kansas and west-central
Missouri zones. Further east with the heaviest precip is expected to
fall...have trimmed back on snowfall amounts slightly as fast storm
movement and delayed precip arrival time will likely lead to slightly
lower amounts. In general across the advisory area...expect 2-4"
across most locations...however 3-5" will be possible north of
Kirksville before all is said and done. Cannot rule out a 6" report
up there but did not have enough confidence to even consider a
possible warning upgrade. As alluded to above...best accumulations
likely to occur after 00z...hence supporting the decision to slide
the advisory start time to the right.

Another factor to consider overnight will be the strong winds
with cold air advection following fropa. Current BUFKIT momentum
transfer tool output suggesting gusts in the mid to upper 30 kt range
later tonight. Combine this with any falling snow....blowing and
drifting will certainly be a possibility overnight.

Lingering light snow shwrs to come to an end by mid morning Thursday
as drier air and strong high pressure builds into the area. For the
remainder of the short term...focus will be on well below normal
temperatures as strong high pressure combines with fresh snow and clear
skies aloft. Have generally undercut guidance for temps both Thu and
Fri with Fri morning shaping up to be one of the coldest mornings of
the year. Any precip with this weekend/s system to hold off until
later on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Models continue to advertise an active weather pattern for much of
the extended range forecast. Two main features of interest that will
be the driving forces for sensible weather across our area will be:
1) An upper level trough across the central Rockies 2) A surface
front that will sink south through the forecast area and stall south
of the area.

On Saturday, an upper level trough will be sinking slow south across
the central Rockies. Further east, across the eastern half of the
CONUS, the upper flow will become quasi-zonal. Several shortwave
impulses will eject out from the upper level trough and into the
local area. Cold air will already be in place on Saturday and
precipitation should begin as snow...spreading from west to east
through the afternoon. Snow will continue through Saturday night.
Sunday, a cold front will sink south through the area reinforcing
the cold air and continue snow chances. However, as we get into
Sunday night we begin to lose ice crystals in the snow growth
zone...especially across the southern CWA...and snow may mix with or
change over to sleet.

Model solutions begin to diverge in the Monday to Tuesday timeframe.
On Monday, model differences revolve around how quickly the cold
front begins to lift back north towards the forecast area. Although,
precipitation continues to look likely on Monday, P-Type is more in
question with the front lifting back northward. Model soundings
indicate the potential for freezing rain to the south a wintry mix
across the central CWA with the northern CWA remaining snow. Tuesday
the main concern will be the upper level trough across the Rockies.
The GFS is faster moving it through the area on Tuesday bringing
another round of snow to the forecast area. The EC is about 24 hours
slower in moving the trough eastward into the local area. This
solution would bring a lull in precipitation on Tuesday with another
round of precipitation back in on Wednesday. Have maintained a
blended solution through this timeframe until forecast details can
be fine tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Latest model guidance suggests that precip chances will arrive a bit
later than previous TAF issuance. Precip looks to move in tomorrow
afternoon and depending on the arrival of the system, precip will
likely begin as rain before changing over to snow. There may be a
brief period of a rain/snow mix or wintry precip mix before the
changeover to all snow occurs. Timing on precip will likely change as
this system develops, but current forecast indicates changeover to occur
between a 23Z-01Z time frame. MVFR cigs will be possible as the
precip moves into the region.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ002>008-014>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...PMM







000
FXUS63 KLSX 250958
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
358 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 353 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Split flow upper level pattern feature two systems. A nthrn wave
that will begin affecting the FA later this aftn into Thu mrng and a
stronger sthrn stream storm. The sthrn energy is expected to track
from the Red River Valley today into the sthrn Appalachians
tonight. This path will keep the effects from this feature well to
the south of the CWA...though will be a significant impact for
locations from NE TX east into the Carolinas. The nthrn system is
dropping SE out of the Dakotas this mrng with a SFC low in along the
NE/SD border as of 9Z with a bndry extending SE across sthrn
IA...nthrn IL/IN and arcing NE in Canada. The bndry is expected to
slowly sag south thru the day with the low tracking just to the SW
of the bndry...which takes it from ern NE this mrng to somewhere
across far ern KS or wrn MO by 00Z this evng. The SREF and ECMWF
appear to be wrn outliers. This system will be in a weakening mode
as it drops SE thru the region overnight. Overall speed of the system
seems to have slowed some over the past 24 hrs and as such have backed
off on increasing PoPs across the nthrn zones until late this
aftn. The slower system also means thicker cloud cover will be
delayed allowing temps to rise a bit more than previously thought.
Temps may be marginal for snow at the onset of the event as
well...allowing for a possible rain snow mix. Therefore...have
significantly lowered QPF and snow accums prior to 00z and have
them confined primarily along and north of US HWY 36 with snow
accums of less than an inch. Have also delayed the start time of
the ADVY til 21Z due to the above reasoning. Added Brown and Pike
Counties in IL to the ADVY and now have it ending at 15Z
Thu...instead of 12Z.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 353 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Clipper system centered over west central Missouri will continue
to slide to the southeast tonight...with colder air filtering in
from the north. Because of slightly warmer temps over central MO
could still see some mixed rain and snow over this region for a
few hours after 00z Thursday. Otherwise, heaviest snowfall will be
across northeast MO and west central IL. Even though system
weakens as it exits region, will see lingering light snow through
at least 18z Thursday before tapering off. Storm total numbers
will range from 3 to 4 inches far north to less than an inch
southeast of the St. Louis metro area.

Colder air to filter into the region on Thursday, so will have
non-diurnal temps, with mid morning highs most locations, then
either steady or falling temps through the afternoon hours. Thursday
night will be our coldest night as fresh new snowfall, light north
wind and clearing skies allow temps to fall below zero for areas
north of the I-70 corridor. Rest of forecast area will see lows in
the single digits above zero. As for wind chill indicies,
approaching advisory criteria for northeast MO and west central IL,
but it`s too early to issue an advisory at this time.

Beyond that, the extended models continue to have timing, placement
and strength differences with the prolonged period of precipitation
this weekend and into early next week. Best chances of precipitation
continues to be the Saturday night/Sunday timeframe and Monday
night/Tuesday timeframe. Continue to check back frequently for
updates to this event.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

VFR stratus that was over terminals earlier this evening has
advected southeastward and dissipated with time. Clear skies for
most of the rest of tonight is expected before midlevel clouds
advect into region from the northwest ahead of clipper-like
disturbance. Ceilings should lower through the day on Wednesday as
top-down saturation occurs. Timing of light snow looks to be a bit
slower than previous TAF package...starting at KUIN around 2200
UTC 25 February...KCOU 0300 UTC 26 February and KSTL 0700 UTC 26
February. Light snow should begin at KSUS and KCPS just after this
valid TAF package. Snow is expected to intensify a bit at KUIN
with IFR visbys/ceilings becoming more likely by late Wednesday
evening.


Specifics for KSTL:

Clear skies for most of the rest of tonight is expected before
midlevel clouds advect into region from the northwest. Ceilings
should lower through the day/evening on Wednesday. Timing of
light snow looks to be about 3 or 4 hours slower than previous TAF
package after analyzing latest model guidance. Now have light snow
beginning at KSTL at 0700 UTC 26 February. Snow may
intensify a bit between 0900 and 1200 UTC Thursday with IFR
visbys/ceilings possible...though since it was at the very tail
end of this valid TAF package elected not to put in those lower
visbys/ceilings quite yet and will let mid shift evaluate things further.


Gosselin
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-
     Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 250958
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
358 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 353 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Split flow upper level pattern feature two systems. A nthrn wave
that will begin affecting the FA later this aftn into Thu mrng and a
stronger sthrn stream storm. The sthrn energy is expected to track
from the Red River Valley today into the sthrn Appalachians
tonight. This path will keep the effects from this feature well to
the south of the CWA...though will be a significant impact for
locations from NE TX east into the Carolinas. The nthrn system is
dropping SE out of the Dakotas this mrng with a SFC low in along the
NE/SD border as of 9Z with a bndry extending SE across sthrn
IA...nthrn IL/IN and arcing NE in Canada. The bndry is expected to
slowly sag south thru the day with the low tracking just to the SW
of the bndry...which takes it from ern NE this mrng to somewhere
across far ern KS or wrn MO by 00Z this evng. The SREF and ECMWF
appear to be wrn outliers. This system will be in a weakening mode
as it drops SE thru the region overnight. Overall speed of the system
seems to have slowed some over the past 24 hrs and as such have backed
off on increasing PoPs across the nthrn zones until late this
aftn. The slower system also means thicker cloud cover will be
delayed allowing temps to rise a bit more than previously thought.
Temps may be marginal for snow at the onset of the event as
well...allowing for a possible rain snow mix. Therefore...have
significantly lowered QPF and snow accums prior to 00z and have
them confined primarily along and north of US HWY 36 with snow
accums of less than an inch. Have also delayed the start time of
the ADVY til 21Z due to the above reasoning. Added Brown and Pike
Counties in IL to the ADVY and now have it ending at 15Z
Thu...instead of 12Z.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 353 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Clipper system centered over west central Missouri will continue
to slide to the southeast tonight...with colder air filtering in
from the north. Because of slightly warmer temps over central MO
could still see some mixed rain and snow over this region for a
few hours after 00z Thursday. Otherwise, heaviest snowfall will be
across northeast MO and west central IL. Even though system
weakens as it exits region, will see lingering light snow through
at least 18z Thursday before tapering off. Storm total numbers
will range from 3 to 4 inches far north to less than an inch
southeast of the St. Louis metro area.

Colder air to filter into the region on Thursday, so will have
non-diurnal temps, with mid morning highs most locations, then
either steady or falling temps through the afternoon hours. Thursday
night will be our coldest night as fresh new snowfall, light north
wind and clearing skies allow temps to fall below zero for areas
north of the I-70 corridor. Rest of forecast area will see lows in
the single digits above zero. As for wind chill indicies,
approaching advisory criteria for northeast MO and west central IL,
but it`s too early to issue an advisory at this time.

Beyond that, the extended models continue to have timing, placement
and strength differences with the prolonged period of precipitation
this weekend and into early next week. Best chances of precipitation
continues to be the Saturday night/Sunday timeframe and Monday
night/Tuesday timeframe. Continue to check back frequently for
updates to this event.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

VFR stratus that was over terminals earlier this evening has
advected southeastward and dissipated with time. Clear skies for
most of the rest of tonight is expected before midlevel clouds
advect into region from the northwest ahead of clipper-like
disturbance. Ceilings should lower through the day on Wednesday as
top-down saturation occurs. Timing of light snow looks to be a bit
slower than previous TAF package...starting at KUIN around 2200
UTC 25 February...KCOU 0300 UTC 26 February and KSTL 0700 UTC 26
February. Light snow should begin at KSUS and KCPS just after this
valid TAF package. Snow is expected to intensify a bit at KUIN
with IFR visbys/ceilings becoming more likely by late Wednesday
evening.


Specifics for KSTL:

Clear skies for most of the rest of tonight is expected before
midlevel clouds advect into region from the northwest. Ceilings
should lower through the day/evening on Wednesday. Timing of
light snow looks to be about 3 or 4 hours slower than previous TAF
package after analyzing latest model guidance. Now have light snow
beginning at KSTL at 0700 UTC 26 February. Snow may
intensify a bit between 0900 and 1200 UTC Thursday with IFR
visbys/ceilings possible...though since it was at the very tail
end of this valid TAF package elected not to put in those lower
visbys/ceilings quite yet and will let mid shift evaluate things further.


Gosselin
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-
     Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 250958
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
358 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 353 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Split flow upper level pattern feature two systems. A nthrn wave
that will begin affecting the FA later this aftn into Thu mrng and a
stronger sthrn stream storm. The sthrn energy is expected to track
from the Red River Valley today into the sthrn Appalachians
tonight. This path will keep the effects from this feature well to
the south of the CWA...though will be a significant impact for
locations from NE TX east into the Carolinas. The nthrn system is
dropping SE out of the Dakotas this mrng with a SFC low in along the
NE/SD border as of 9Z with a bndry extending SE across sthrn
IA...nthrn IL/IN and arcing NE in Canada. The bndry is expected to
slowly sag south thru the day with the low tracking just to the SW
of the bndry...which takes it from ern NE this mrng to somewhere
across far ern KS or wrn MO by 00Z this evng. The SREF and ECMWF
appear to be wrn outliers. This system will be in a weakening mode
as it drops SE thru the region overnight. Overall speed of the system
seems to have slowed some over the past 24 hrs and as such have backed
off on increasing PoPs across the nthrn zones until late this
aftn. The slower system also means thicker cloud cover will be
delayed allowing temps to rise a bit more than previously thought.
Temps may be marginal for snow at the onset of the event as
well...allowing for a possible rain snow mix. Therefore...have
significantly lowered QPF and snow accums prior to 00z and have
them confined primarily along and north of US HWY 36 with snow
accums of less than an inch. Have also delayed the start time of
the ADVY til 21Z due to the above reasoning. Added Brown and Pike
Counties in IL to the ADVY and now have it ending at 15Z
Thu...instead of 12Z.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 353 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Clipper system centered over west central Missouri will continue
to slide to the southeast tonight...with colder air filtering in
from the north. Because of slightly warmer temps over central MO
could still see some mixed rain and snow over this region for a
few hours after 00z Thursday. Otherwise, heaviest snowfall will be
across northeast MO and west central IL. Even though system
weakens as it exits region, will see lingering light snow through
at least 18z Thursday before tapering off. Storm total numbers
will range from 3 to 4 inches far north to less than an inch
southeast of the St. Louis metro area.

Colder air to filter into the region on Thursday, so will have
non-diurnal temps, with mid morning highs most locations, then
either steady or falling temps through the afternoon hours. Thursday
night will be our coldest night as fresh new snowfall, light north
wind and clearing skies allow temps to fall below zero for areas
north of the I-70 corridor. Rest of forecast area will see lows in
the single digits above zero. As for wind chill indicies,
approaching advisory criteria for northeast MO and west central IL,
but it`s too early to issue an advisory at this time.

Beyond that, the extended models continue to have timing, placement
and strength differences with the prolonged period of precipitation
this weekend and into early next week. Best chances of precipitation
continues to be the Saturday night/Sunday timeframe and Monday
night/Tuesday timeframe. Continue to check back frequently for
updates to this event.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

VFR stratus that was over terminals earlier this evening has
advected southeastward and dissipated with time. Clear skies for
most of the rest of tonight is expected before midlevel clouds
advect into region from the northwest ahead of clipper-like
disturbance. Ceilings should lower through the day on Wednesday as
top-down saturation occurs. Timing of light snow looks to be a bit
slower than previous TAF package...starting at KUIN around 2200
UTC 25 February...KCOU 0300 UTC 26 February and KSTL 0700 UTC 26
February. Light snow should begin at KSUS and KCPS just after this
valid TAF package. Snow is expected to intensify a bit at KUIN
with IFR visbys/ceilings becoming more likely by late Wednesday
evening.


Specifics for KSTL:

Clear skies for most of the rest of tonight is expected before
midlevel clouds advect into region from the northwest. Ceilings
should lower through the day/evening on Wednesday. Timing of
light snow looks to be about 3 or 4 hours slower than previous TAF
package after analyzing latest model guidance. Now have light snow
beginning at KSTL at 0700 UTC 26 February. Snow may
intensify a bit between 0900 and 1200 UTC Thursday with IFR
visbys/ceilings possible...though since it was at the very tail
end of this valid TAF package elected not to put in those lower
visbys/ceilings quite yet and will let mid shift evaluate things further.


Gosselin
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-
     Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 250958
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
358 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 353 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Split flow upper level pattern feature two systems. A nthrn wave
that will begin affecting the FA later this aftn into Thu mrng and a
stronger sthrn stream storm. The sthrn energy is expected to track
from the Red River Valley today into the sthrn Appalachians
tonight. This path will keep the effects from this feature well to
the south of the CWA...though will be a significant impact for
locations from NE TX east into the Carolinas. The nthrn system is
dropping SE out of the Dakotas this mrng with a SFC low in along the
NE/SD border as of 9Z with a bndry extending SE across sthrn
IA...nthrn IL/IN and arcing NE in Canada. The bndry is expected to
slowly sag south thru the day with the low tracking just to the SW
of the bndry...which takes it from ern NE this mrng to somewhere
across far ern KS or wrn MO by 00Z this evng. The SREF and ECMWF
appear to be wrn outliers. This system will be in a weakening mode
as it drops SE thru the region overnight. Overall speed of the system
seems to have slowed some over the past 24 hrs and as such have backed
off on increasing PoPs across the nthrn zones until late this
aftn. The slower system also means thicker cloud cover will be
delayed allowing temps to rise a bit more than previously thought.
Temps may be marginal for snow at the onset of the event as
well...allowing for a possible rain snow mix. Therefore...have
significantly lowered QPF and snow accums prior to 00z and have
them confined primarily along and north of US HWY 36 with snow
accums of less than an inch. Have also delayed the start time of
the ADVY til 21Z due to the above reasoning. Added Brown and Pike
Counties in IL to the ADVY and now have it ending at 15Z
Thu...instead of 12Z.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 353 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

Clipper system centered over west central Missouri will continue
to slide to the southeast tonight...with colder air filtering in
from the north. Because of slightly warmer temps over central MO
could still see some mixed rain and snow over this region for a
few hours after 00z Thursday. Otherwise, heaviest snowfall will be
across northeast MO and west central IL. Even though system
weakens as it exits region, will see lingering light snow through
at least 18z Thursday before tapering off. Storm total numbers
will range from 3 to 4 inches far north to less than an inch
southeast of the St. Louis metro area.

Colder air to filter into the region on Thursday, so will have
non-diurnal temps, with mid morning highs most locations, then
either steady or falling temps through the afternoon hours. Thursday
night will be our coldest night as fresh new snowfall, light north
wind and clearing skies allow temps to fall below zero for areas
north of the I-70 corridor. Rest of forecast area will see lows in
the single digits above zero. As for wind chill indicies,
approaching advisory criteria for northeast MO and west central IL,
but it`s too early to issue an advisory at this time.

Beyond that, the extended models continue to have timing, placement
and strength differences with the prolonged period of precipitation
this weekend and into early next week. Best chances of precipitation
continues to be the Saturday night/Sunday timeframe and Monday
night/Tuesday timeframe. Continue to check back frequently for
updates to this event.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

VFR stratus that was over terminals earlier this evening has
advected southeastward and dissipated with time. Clear skies for
most of the rest of tonight is expected before midlevel clouds
advect into region from the northwest ahead of clipper-like
disturbance. Ceilings should lower through the day on Wednesday as
top-down saturation occurs. Timing of light snow looks to be a bit
slower than previous TAF package...starting at KUIN around 2200
UTC 25 February...KCOU 0300 UTC 26 February and KSTL 0700 UTC 26
February. Light snow should begin at KSUS and KCPS just after this
valid TAF package. Snow is expected to intensify a bit at KUIN
with IFR visbys/ceilings becoming more likely by late Wednesday
evening.


Specifics for KSTL:

Clear skies for most of the rest of tonight is expected before
midlevel clouds advect into region from the northwest. Ceilings
should lower through the day/evening on Wednesday. Timing of
light snow looks to be about 3 or 4 hours slower than previous TAF
package after analyzing latest model guidance. Now have light snow
beginning at KSTL at 0700 UTC 26 February. Snow may
intensify a bit between 0900 and 1200 UTC Thursday with IFR
visbys/ceilings possible...though since it was at the very tail
end of this valid TAF package elected not to put in those lower
visbys/ceilings quite yet and will let mid shift evaluate things further.


Gosselin
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-
     Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 250951
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
351 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

...Milder Today then Colder with Chance of Snow Late Tonight and
Thursday...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Milder temperatures are in store for one more day before the next
Arctic surge arrives late tonight. Southerly winds, considerable
sunshine and a shrinking snowfield over the Ozark Plateau will allow
temperatures to rise into the 40s with some lower and possibly
middle 50s from southeastern Kansas into far west central
Missouri.

The clipper system that has been advertised will slide quickly
southeastward into Missouri this evening and across southern
Missouri into early Thursday morning. Precipitation will arrive to
central Missouri by late evening then spread southeastward. The
best chance for light snowfall will be to the northeast of the
vorticity maxima and diffuse surface low that will push southeast
across the Missouri Ozarks late tonight. Areas of central Missouri
into the eastern Ozarks could see up to an inch of snow with
lesser amounts to the west.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Areas of light snow or flurries will linger Thursday morning as
the clipper exits to the southeast. Strong cold air advection will
follow the passage of this system will temperatures falling
through the 20s toward the teens by late afternoon. Lows Thursday
night will fall into single digits and may approach zero across
central Missouri. A steady northerly wind will produce wind chill
values in the single digits below zero and as cold as 10 below
late Thursday night into Friday morning. With 850 MB temperatures
around 15 degrees Celsius below temperatures Friday will struggle
to climb to around 20 degrees.

Models continue to advertise the potential for accumulating wintry
precipitation this weekend. While details in regards to precipitation
type, amounts and timing remain uncertain confidence is increasing
that the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern Kansas will see wintry
precipitation this weekend.

The upper pattern will become more zonal as a deep upper level
trough evolves out west. A series of disturbances will eject
northeastward from this trough across the region while a frontal
zone develops underneath the westerly to southwesterly flow aloft.
The first round of precipitation will arrive Saturday and Saturday
night. It appears that this initial round of precipitation will be
primarily in the form of snow as a deep Arctic airmass remains
entrenched. Precipitation types become more uncertain with time as
warm air advection develops over the cold dome. Precipitation may
transition to a wintry mix later Saturday night into Sunday and
Sunday night. Some areas of southern Missouri may even rise above
freezing Sunday. However it is too early to pin down precipitation
types and amounts given the complexity of this system.

For now closely monitor the latest weather information and forecasts
as we approach the weekend.

The unsettled pattern continues into early next with considerable
uncertainty remaining on precipitation types.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1104 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Conditions are clear and 10 sm visibility throughout the CWA as of
05z and generally expecting this to continue through the
overnight. Only fly in ointment will be the potential for some
light fog once the wind diminishes during the overnight, but have
removed from the forecast at this time. Should start to see some
mid level ceilings develop by Wed evening as an upper level
shortwave begins to track southeast into the region.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 250951
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
351 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

...Milder Today then Colder with Chance of Snow Late Tonight and
Thursday...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Milder temperatures are in store for one more day before the next
Arctic surge arrives late tonight. Southerly winds, considerable
sunshine and a shrinking snowfield over the Ozark Plateau will allow
temperatures to rise into the 40s with some lower and possibly
middle 50s from southeastern Kansas into far west central
Missouri.

The clipper system that has been advertised will slide quickly
southeastward into Missouri this evening and across southern
Missouri into early Thursday morning. Precipitation will arrive to
central Missouri by late evening then spread southeastward. The
best chance for light snowfall will be to the northeast of the
vorticity maxima and diffuse surface low that will push southeast
across the Missouri Ozarks late tonight. Areas of central Missouri
into the eastern Ozarks could see up to an inch of snow with
lesser amounts to the west.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Areas of light snow or flurries will linger Thursday morning as
the clipper exits to the southeast. Strong cold air advection will
follow the passage of this system will temperatures falling
through the 20s toward the teens by late afternoon. Lows Thursday
night will fall into single digits and may approach zero across
central Missouri. A steady northerly wind will produce wind chill
values in the single digits below zero and as cold as 10 below
late Thursday night into Friday morning. With 850 MB temperatures
around 15 degrees Celsius below temperatures Friday will struggle
to climb to around 20 degrees.

Models continue to advertise the potential for accumulating wintry
precipitation this weekend. While details in regards to precipitation
type, amounts and timing remain uncertain confidence is increasing
that the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern Kansas will see wintry
precipitation this weekend.

The upper pattern will become more zonal as a deep upper level
trough evolves out west. A series of disturbances will eject
northeastward from this trough across the region while a frontal
zone develops underneath the westerly to southwesterly flow aloft.
The first round of precipitation will arrive Saturday and Saturday
night. It appears that this initial round of precipitation will be
primarily in the form of snow as a deep Arctic airmass remains
entrenched. Precipitation types become more uncertain with time as
warm air advection develops over the cold dome. Precipitation may
transition to a wintry mix later Saturday night into Sunday and
Sunday night. Some areas of southern Missouri may even rise above
freezing Sunday. However it is too early to pin down precipitation
types and amounts given the complexity of this system.

For now closely monitor the latest weather information and forecasts
as we approach the weekend.

The unsettled pattern continues into early next with considerable
uncertainty remaining on precipitation types.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1104 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Conditions are clear and 10 sm visibility throughout the CWA as of
05z and generally expecting this to continue through the
overnight. Only fly in ointment will be the potential for some
light fog once the wind diminishes during the overnight, but have
removed from the forecast at this time. Should start to see some
mid level ceilings develop by Wed evening as an upper level
shortwave begins to track southeast into the region.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 250951
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
351 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

...Milder Today then Colder with Chance of Snow Late Tonight and
Thursday...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Milder temperatures are in store for one more day before the next
Arctic surge arrives late tonight. Southerly winds, considerable
sunshine and a shrinking snowfield over the Ozark Plateau will allow
temperatures to rise into the 40s with some lower and possibly
middle 50s from southeastern Kansas into far west central
Missouri.

The clipper system that has been advertised will slide quickly
southeastward into Missouri this evening and across southern
Missouri into early Thursday morning. Precipitation will arrive to
central Missouri by late evening then spread southeastward. The
best chance for light snowfall will be to the northeast of the
vorticity maxima and diffuse surface low that will push southeast
across the Missouri Ozarks late tonight. Areas of central Missouri
into the eastern Ozarks could see up to an inch of snow with
lesser amounts to the west.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Areas of light snow or flurries will linger Thursday morning as
the clipper exits to the southeast. Strong cold air advection will
follow the passage of this system will temperatures falling
through the 20s toward the teens by late afternoon. Lows Thursday
night will fall into single digits and may approach zero across
central Missouri. A steady northerly wind will produce wind chill
values in the single digits below zero and as cold as 10 below
late Thursday night into Friday morning. With 850 MB temperatures
around 15 degrees Celsius below temperatures Friday will struggle
to climb to around 20 degrees.

Models continue to advertise the potential for accumulating wintry
precipitation this weekend. While details in regards to precipitation
type, amounts and timing remain uncertain confidence is increasing
that the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern Kansas will see wintry
precipitation this weekend.

The upper pattern will become more zonal as a deep upper level
trough evolves out west. A series of disturbances will eject
northeastward from this trough across the region while a frontal
zone develops underneath the westerly to southwesterly flow aloft.
The first round of precipitation will arrive Saturday and Saturday
night. It appears that this initial round of precipitation will be
primarily in the form of snow as a deep Arctic airmass remains
entrenched. Precipitation types become more uncertain with time as
warm air advection develops over the cold dome. Precipitation may
transition to a wintry mix later Saturday night into Sunday and
Sunday night. Some areas of southern Missouri may even rise above
freezing Sunday. However it is too early to pin down precipitation
types and amounts given the complexity of this system.

For now closely monitor the latest weather information and forecasts
as we approach the weekend.

The unsettled pattern continues into early next with considerable
uncertainty remaining on precipitation types.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1104 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Conditions are clear and 10 sm visibility throughout the CWA as of
05z and generally expecting this to continue through the
overnight. Only fly in ointment will be the potential for some
light fog once the wind diminishes during the overnight, but have
removed from the forecast at this time. Should start to see some
mid level ceilings develop by Wed evening as an upper level
shortwave begins to track southeast into the region.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 250951
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
351 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

...Milder Today then Colder with Chance of Snow Late Tonight and
Thursday...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Milder temperatures are in store for one more day before the next
Arctic surge arrives late tonight. Southerly winds, considerable
sunshine and a shrinking snowfield over the Ozark Plateau will allow
temperatures to rise into the 40s with some lower and possibly
middle 50s from southeastern Kansas into far west central
Missouri.

The clipper system that has been advertised will slide quickly
southeastward into Missouri this evening and across southern
Missouri into early Thursday morning. Precipitation will arrive to
central Missouri by late evening then spread southeastward. The
best chance for light snowfall will be to the northeast of the
vorticity maxima and diffuse surface low that will push southeast
across the Missouri Ozarks late tonight. Areas of central Missouri
into the eastern Ozarks could see up to an inch of snow with
lesser amounts to the west.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

Areas of light snow or flurries will linger Thursday morning as
the clipper exits to the southeast. Strong cold air advection will
follow the passage of this system will temperatures falling
through the 20s toward the teens by late afternoon. Lows Thursday
night will fall into single digits and may approach zero across
central Missouri. A steady northerly wind will produce wind chill
values in the single digits below zero and as cold as 10 below
late Thursday night into Friday morning. With 850 MB temperatures
around 15 degrees Celsius below temperatures Friday will struggle
to climb to around 20 degrees.

Models continue to advertise the potential for accumulating wintry
precipitation this weekend. While details in regards to precipitation
type, amounts and timing remain uncertain confidence is increasing
that the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern Kansas will see wintry
precipitation this weekend.

The upper pattern will become more zonal as a deep upper level
trough evolves out west. A series of disturbances will eject
northeastward from this trough across the region while a frontal
zone develops underneath the westerly to southwesterly flow aloft.
The first round of precipitation will arrive Saturday and Saturday
night. It appears that this initial round of precipitation will be
primarily in the form of snow as a deep Arctic airmass remains
entrenched. Precipitation types become more uncertain with time as
warm air advection develops over the cold dome. Precipitation may
transition to a wintry mix later Saturday night into Sunday and
Sunday night. Some areas of southern Missouri may even rise above
freezing Sunday. However it is too early to pin down precipitation
types and amounts given the complexity of this system.

For now closely monitor the latest weather information and forecasts
as we approach the weekend.

The unsettled pattern continues into early next with considerable
uncertainty remaining on precipitation types.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1104 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Conditions are clear and 10 sm visibility throughout the CWA as of
05z and generally expecting this to continue through the
overnight. Only fly in ointment will be the potential for some
light fog once the wind diminishes during the overnight, but have
removed from the forecast at this time. Should start to see some
mid level ceilings develop by Wed evening as an upper level
shortwave begins to track southeast into the region.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KEAX 250534
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1134 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

After much deliberation and collaboration with adjacent offices agree
on the need to slow down the arrival of precipitation into the CWA.
The 00Z NAM is considerably slower than it`s previous runs and is
actually in closer agreement with the 12z GFS and latest SREF. Looks
like there will be two precipitation waves with the warm air
advection driving the first batch that is expected to slide southeast
through northern and central IA very late tonight and tomorrow
morning...and affect the far north central and northeastern counties.
Second wave starting tomorrow afternoon will be aligned with the
increasing frontogenetic forcing.

Going dry overnight and no longer see the need to carry any PoPs
over northwest MO through 18z Wednesday. Have also adjusted rest of the
morning PoPs to affect only the far northeast and north central CWA.
Mainly snow although a rain/snow mix is likely on the southwest
fringe. Looking more and more likely that most of the precipitation
will be post-frontal and the risk of rain within the warm sector is
decreasing. The mid-shift and Wednesday`s day shifts may need to make
adjustments for towards this. For now, don`t want to paint them into
a corner with the GFS, ECMWF, SREF and the local WRFs yet to look at.
Interestingly, even with all the changes there were only minor
changes to the overall snow totals.

Also make adjustments to the hourly temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Warm temperatures, approaching daily normals adorn the forecast area
for today, as good insolation and a westerly surface wind component
combine to bring temperatures back into the 40s for Tuesday.
Although winds have shifted from the west to northwest the warm
temperatures across southern and central Nebraska suggest that we
have nothing to worry about regarding cold air moving in behind the
northwest winds. By tonight, a surface low will form over western
Nebraska and move generally E/SE into SE Nebraska and eventually
into NE Kansas. The effect of this surface low will be to bring the
winds around to the SE for the bulk of Wednesday. This will aid in
keeping the temperatures seasonal for Wednesday - again in the lower
to middle 40s. The surface low will be associated with an upstream
mid level trough, which will move through the area Wednesday night,
bringing with it a chance for accumulating snow, especially across
far northern and central Missouri.

Within the northwest mid level flow there water vapor imagery
suggests an embedded shortwave trough, located roughly over the
Montana Rocky Mountains. Models agree that this wave will continue
along a southeast track into the Northern Plains, then eventually
into northern Missouri. Cold air will generally be in place across
far northern Missouri, prior to the system`s arrival. This will be
more aided by the thick snow pack that has been located across NE
Missouri. Farther south the SE winds will keep the area warm through
a majority of the day. For areas where the cold air will be more
prevalent - namely far N/NE Missouri the initial precipitation with
this wave will be snow, and will likely remain snow for the duration
of the event. expect the first bits of precipitation to form around
12z-15z as the atmospheric column saturates. Expect full saturation
and accumulating precipitation no later than 18z Wednesday
afternoon. As the better lift continues to drift southeastward
through the day on Wednesday precipitation will become more
widespread and snow rates will increase. Forecast soundings indicate
saturation through the -10C to -16C dendritic growth layer through
Wednesday night and into Thursday morning, perhaps through 18z
Thursday across central Missouri. The best snow rates will likely
occur during the overnight period. Regarding the individual elements
of this system, it appears that the majority of the ascent
associated with the precipitation production will be attributed to
the mid level ascent with the shortwave trough, as well as some good
low level frontogenesis. In other words there does not appear to be
a long lasting or deep isentropic component to this system, nor does
there appear to be much in the way of instability enhancing the
ascent. All told, omega values over the areas with best snow
production potential range from -5 to -10 ubars/sec, which is
formidable, but not incredibly impressive. That being said,
generally expect a light to perhaps moderate at times snow fall over
several hours on Wednesday night across northern and central
Missouri. With QPF amounts ranging in the quarter to half inch range
and with snow ratios starting around 12-14:1 eventually rising to
18-20:1 by the end of the event have gone with a general 3 to 6
inches across N/C Missouri, with perhaps a few isolated locations
perhaps reaching 6+ inches. As a result of expected snow amounts
below 6 inches have gone with a Winter Weather Advisory, starting
around noon (18z) Wed afternoon, going through 6am (12z) Thursday
morning. The area within the advisory at this point reflects the
area with the highest confidence of getting 3+ inches of snow. Given
that there is more time between now and when snow will begin south
and west of the current advisory will let the next shift assess the
fringes of the advisory.

Regarding areas south and west of the current advisory, we are still
expecting some light snow fall over just about all of the forecast
area, including the KC Metro on Wednesday night. However, since that
area will be in the lower to middle 40s on Wednesday it will take
longer to cool the thermal column, and perhaps eat into snow totals,
since the early precip could be rain, gradually transitioning
through a rain/snow mix and eventually snow by Wednesday night.
Perhaps .10"-.20" of QPF is expected over these areas, which would
translate to around and inch or two of snow in the areas not listed
in the current advisory. Farther to the south and west - namely in
the Kansas counties and far southern Missouri zones, anticipating
only a dusting to perhaps an inch, as models continue to show the
system weakening fairly quickly upon arrival into northern Missouri.

Expect some light lingering snow to remain through the morning hours
on Thursday, but by then the bulk of the precipitation will have
fallen. Thereafter another very cold air mass will move into the
area, bringing temperatures back into the teens and lower 20s for
Thursday and Friday. Wind chill values for Thursday morning will
droop to around zero for the I-70 corridor, with WC values
approaching -10 toward the IA/MO border. For Friday morning wind
chill values will be well below zero across the entire area, with
the IA/MO border area reaching -10 to -20.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 342 PM CST TUE FEB
24 2015

The later half of the forecast continues to advertise a very active
pattern for our section of the country starting this weekend and
persisting into next work week.

Overall pattern towards the end of the work week will be adjusting
form a northwest flow, which helped bring our recent bout of cold
temperatures, to more of a locally zonal flow as energy tumbles
over the peak of the east Pacific ridge, ultimately developing a
large sheared trough over the west coast this weekend. This pattern
is similar to one that brought some 36 hours worth of stormy weather
back on January 31st into the beginning of February, as a shearing
wave to our west spit out bits of vorticity into and through a
convergent flow in the Central Plains. Specific confidence on the
forecast for anyone day this weekend into next week is rather low
owing to uncertainties in thermal profile, small temperature
difference means big precipitation type differences, but there is a
sufficient single to warrant keeping our POPs fairly high as we
transit through Saturday and into Sunday.

Moisture return will get going Friday as a cold dry surface high
slides off to the east. This will keep conditions precipitation free
for Friday, but also rather cold as the advertised surface high will
have a pressure of 1040mb. Precipitation will likely spread into our
region during the day Saturday, with current temperatures making
p-types look like snow. However, as the weekend progresses the warm
air advection that is inducing much of the advertised precipitation
will modify the thermal profile sufficiently Sunday morning through
Sunday afternoon enough to induce a precipitation changes. This cold
mean we start Sunday with snow, only to have it transit through
sleet and freezing rain to just rain for a bit in the afternoon,
before temperatures cool back down that night. Precipitation type
issues will likely persist into Monday as the flow will remain
relatively flat into the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Latest model guidance suggests that precip chances will arrive a bit
later than previous TAF issuance. Precip looks to move in tomorrow
afternoon and depending on the arrival of the system, precip will
likely begin as rain before changing over to snow. There may be a
brief period of a rain/snow mix or wintry precip mix before the
changeover to all snow occurs. Timing on precip will likely change as
this system develops, but current forecast indicates changeover to occur
between a 23Z-01Z time frame. MVFR cigs will be possible as the
precip moves into the region.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Noon Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
     FOR MOZ002>008-014>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...PMM






000
FXUS63 KEAX 250534
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1134 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

After much deliberation and collaboration with adjacent offices agree
on the need to slow down the arrival of precipitation into the CWA.
The 00Z NAM is considerably slower than it`s previous runs and is
actually in closer agreement with the 12z GFS and latest SREF. Looks
like there will be two precipitation waves with the warm air
advection driving the first batch that is expected to slide southeast
through northern and central IA very late tonight and tomorrow
morning...and affect the far north central and northeastern counties.
Second wave starting tomorrow afternoon will be aligned with the
increasing frontogenetic forcing.

Going dry overnight and no longer see the need to carry any PoPs
over northwest MO through 18z Wednesday. Have also adjusted rest of the
morning PoPs to affect only the far northeast and north central CWA.
Mainly snow although a rain/snow mix is likely on the southwest
fringe. Looking more and more likely that most of the precipitation
will be post-frontal and the risk of rain within the warm sector is
decreasing. The mid-shift and Wednesday`s day shifts may need to make
adjustments for towards this. For now, don`t want to paint them into
a corner with the GFS, ECMWF, SREF and the local WRFs yet to look at.
Interestingly, even with all the changes there were only minor
changes to the overall snow totals.

Also make adjustments to the hourly temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Warm temperatures, approaching daily normals adorn the forecast area
for today, as good insolation and a westerly surface wind component
combine to bring temperatures back into the 40s for Tuesday.
Although winds have shifted from the west to northwest the warm
temperatures across southern and central Nebraska suggest that we
have nothing to worry about regarding cold air moving in behind the
northwest winds. By tonight, a surface low will form over western
Nebraska and move generally E/SE into SE Nebraska and eventually
into NE Kansas. The effect of this surface low will be to bring the
winds around to the SE for the bulk of Wednesday. This will aid in
keeping the temperatures seasonal for Wednesday - again in the lower
to middle 40s. The surface low will be associated with an upstream
mid level trough, which will move through the area Wednesday night,
bringing with it a chance for accumulating snow, especially across
far northern and central Missouri.

Within the northwest mid level flow there water vapor imagery
suggests an embedded shortwave trough, located roughly over the
Montana Rocky Mountains. Models agree that this wave will continue
along a southeast track into the Northern Plains, then eventually
into northern Missouri. Cold air will generally be in place across
far northern Missouri, prior to the system`s arrival. This will be
more aided by the thick snow pack that has been located across NE
Missouri. Farther south the SE winds will keep the area warm through
a majority of the day. For areas where the cold air will be more
prevalent - namely far N/NE Missouri the initial precipitation with
this wave will be snow, and will likely remain snow for the duration
of the event. expect the first bits of precipitation to form around
12z-15z as the atmospheric column saturates. Expect full saturation
and accumulating precipitation no later than 18z Wednesday
afternoon. As the better lift continues to drift southeastward
through the day on Wednesday precipitation will become more
widespread and snow rates will increase. Forecast soundings indicate
saturation through the -10C to -16C dendritic growth layer through
Wednesday night and into Thursday morning, perhaps through 18z
Thursday across central Missouri. The best snow rates will likely
occur during the overnight period. Regarding the individual elements
of this system, it appears that the majority of the ascent
associated with the precipitation production will be attributed to
the mid level ascent with the shortwave trough, as well as some good
low level frontogenesis. In other words there does not appear to be
a long lasting or deep isentropic component to this system, nor does
there appear to be much in the way of instability enhancing the
ascent. All told, omega values over the areas with best snow
production potential range from -5 to -10 ubars/sec, which is
formidable, but not incredibly impressive. That being said,
generally expect a light to perhaps moderate at times snow fall over
several hours on Wednesday night across northern and central
Missouri. With QPF amounts ranging in the quarter to half inch range
and with snow ratios starting around 12-14:1 eventually rising to
18-20:1 by the end of the event have gone with a general 3 to 6
inches across N/C Missouri, with perhaps a few isolated locations
perhaps reaching 6+ inches. As a result of expected snow amounts
below 6 inches have gone with a Winter Weather Advisory, starting
around noon (18z) Wed afternoon, going through 6am (12z) Thursday
morning. The area within the advisory at this point reflects the
area with the highest confidence of getting 3+ inches of snow. Given
that there is more time between now and when snow will begin south
and west of the current advisory will let the next shift assess the
fringes of the advisory.

Regarding areas south and west of the current advisory, we are still
expecting some light snow fall over just about all of the forecast
area, including the KC Metro on Wednesday night. However, since that
area will be in the lower to middle 40s on Wednesday it will take
longer to cool the thermal column, and perhaps eat into snow totals,
since the early precip could be rain, gradually transitioning
through a rain/snow mix and eventually snow by Wednesday night.
Perhaps .10"-.20" of QPF is expected over these areas, which would
translate to around and inch or two of snow in the areas not listed
in the current advisory. Farther to the south and west - namely in
the Kansas counties and far southern Missouri zones, anticipating
only a dusting to perhaps an inch, as models continue to show the
system weakening fairly quickly upon arrival into northern Missouri.

Expect some light lingering snow to remain through the morning hours
on Thursday, but by then the bulk of the precipitation will have
fallen. Thereafter another very cold air mass will move into the
area, bringing temperatures back into the teens and lower 20s for
Thursday and Friday. Wind chill values for Thursday morning will
droop to around zero for the I-70 corridor, with WC values
approaching -10 toward the IA/MO border. For Friday morning wind
chill values will be well below zero across the entire area, with
the IA/MO border area reaching -10 to -20.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 342 PM CST TUE FEB
24 2015

The later half of the forecast continues to advertise a very active
pattern for our section of the country starting this weekend and
persisting into next work week.

Overall pattern towards the end of the work week will be adjusting
form a northwest flow, which helped bring our recent bout of cold
temperatures, to more of a locally zonal flow as energy tumbles
over the peak of the east Pacific ridge, ultimately developing a
large sheared trough over the west coast this weekend. This pattern
is similar to one that brought some 36 hours worth of stormy weather
back on January 31st into the beginning of February, as a shearing
wave to our west spit out bits of vorticity into and through a
convergent flow in the Central Plains. Specific confidence on the
forecast for anyone day this weekend into next week is rather low
owing to uncertainties in thermal profile, small temperature
difference means big precipitation type differences, but there is a
sufficient single to warrant keeping our POPs fairly high as we
transit through Saturday and into Sunday.

Moisture return will get going Friday as a cold dry surface high
slides off to the east. This will keep conditions precipitation free
for Friday, but also rather cold as the advertised surface high will
have a pressure of 1040mb. Precipitation will likely spread into our
region during the day Saturday, with current temperatures making
p-types look like snow. However, as the weekend progresses the warm
air advection that is inducing much of the advertised precipitation
will modify the thermal profile sufficiently Sunday morning through
Sunday afternoon enough to induce a precipitation changes. This cold
mean we start Sunday with snow, only to have it transit through
sleet and freezing rain to just rain for a bit in the afternoon,
before temperatures cool back down that night. Precipitation type
issues will likely persist into Monday as the flow will remain
relatively flat into the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Latest model guidance suggests that precip chances will arrive a bit
later than previous TAF issuance. Precip looks to move in tomorrow
afternoon and depending on the arrival of the system, precip will
likely begin as rain before changing over to snow. There may be a
brief period of a rain/snow mix or wintry precip mix before the
changeover to all snow occurs. Timing on precip will likely change as
this system develops, but current forecast indicates changeover to occur
between a 23Z-01Z time frame. MVFR cigs will be possible as the
precip moves into the region.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Noon Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
     FOR MOZ002>008-014>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...PMM







000
FXUS63 KLSX 250527
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1127 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 920 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

Most of the lower level clouds have dissipated or advected east-
southeast of our forecast area this evening. Mid-high level
cloudiness will advect southeastward into our region towards
morning ahead of the approaching storm system in the northern
Plains. Temperatures have been slow to fall so far this evening,
but should see a greater drop later this evening into the
overnight hours due to a clear sky and light surface winds with
weak surface ridging across our area. Low temperatures should be
about 10 degrees below seasonal normals for late February.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 345 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

Expect gusty WSW winds to diminish after sunset. An Arctic front
will pass through the region tonight accompanied by a band of
mid-level clouds, however no precipitation is expected. Winds veer
and become northwesterly for a few hours after fropa, then become
LGT/VAR towards daybreak with the passage of the ridge axis.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

(Wednesday - Friday)

A longwave upper TROF will persist over eastern North America during
this period, signalling a return to below average temps after our
brief foray towards average today.  Of more important note, the
leading edge of this next intrusion of Arctic air will be
accompanied by a weakening clipper system as it drops southward thru
our region late Wednesday and early Thursday.

The models have been pretty good at advertising light snow accums
for much of the region with plenty of cold air in place and decent
SLRs as a result with what limited QPF that is expected to fall.  A
bit better confidence that the system will still be strong enough to
result in 3" or more snowfalls by late Wednesday night for most of
northeast MO and part of west-central IL to result in a Winter Wx
Advisory being hoisted with this package.  Snowfall amounts decrease
as you head south towards I-70, where less than an inch is forecast
for areas south and east of STL.  Start time for this event is a bit
slower than previous packages:  during the afternoon for northeast
MO and west-central IL, and during the evening for the I-70
corridor, perhaps not until late evening.  Advisory may need to be
ultimately expanded southward a bit but will let mid shift make that
call and still get plenty of lead time.

PoPs were boosted to likely for Thursday morning--a trend that has
been continuing for the past couple of days--as a fresh area of
strong frontogenesis slides down and gives a bit of a boost to the
leftover snow.  Additional amounts will be minimal on Thursday--less
than a half inch.

Very cold temps in place Thursday night with some sub-zero values
forecast once again.  Due to forecast winds, wind chills around 15
below appear likely for parts of the northern CWA.

(Saturday - Next Tuesday)

The models continue to advertise the upper level pattern broadening
out to a more W-SW to E-NE flow across much of the CONUS, resulting
in a great flow for a big, late winter storm, provided the cold air
can hang on over our region.  So with confidence, we can go with
reasonably high PoPs for much of this period, with two distinct
episodes of decent pcpn:  Saturday night thru Sunday night and
another round for Monday night and Tuesday.

The trick is how much confidence can we assign to the vertical temp
profiles and layout over our region.  The 12z models all came in a
bit colder this run, especially for the first round of pcpn over the
weekend.  The snow that occurs for the Wed-Thu system will be key.
If enough falls, it will help steer the cold air to leaving more
slowly and in turn steer the storm tracks a bit more south giving us
a snowier solution.  If the mid-week storm flops, then a warmer
solution will be more favored.  Went with better snow coverage on
pcpn-types for the weekend system but also kept a large area of mix
in.

The second round of pcpn looks warmer overall thru the column and
went straight mix for many areas.  Again, the mid-week storm will
have some say in this, but probably in-so-much as low level cold air
gets locked in or not, but not with the better warm air intrusion
aloft that we are looking at with this round due to more backed flow
aloft.  Can`t emphasize this enough but continue to track updates on
this forecast closely as it could be a prolonged major winter storm
event for a good chunk of our region.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

VFR stratus that was over terminals earlier this evening has
advected southeastward and dissipated with time. Clear skies for
most of the rest of tonight is expected before midlevel clouds
advect into region from the northwest ahead of clipper-like
disturbance. Ceilings should lower through the day on Wednesday as
top-down saturation occurs. Timing of light snow looks to be a bit
slower than previous TAF package...starting at KUIN around 2200
UTC 25 February...KCOU 0300 UTC 26 February and KSTL 0700 UTC 26
February. Light snow should begin at KSUS and KCPS just after this
valid TAF package. Snow is expected to intensify a bit at KUIN
with IFR visbys/ceilings becoming more likely by late Wednesday
evening.


Specifics for KSTL:

Clear skies for most of the rest of tonight is expected before
midlevel clouds advect into region from the northwest. Ceilings
should lower through the day/evening on Wednesday. Timing of
light snow looks to be about 3 or 4 hours slower than previous TAF
package after analyzing latest model guidance. Now have light snow
beginning at KSTL at 0700 UTC 26 February. Snow may
intensify a bit between 0900 and 1200 UTC Thursday with IFR
visbys/ceilings possible...though since it was at the very tail
end of this valid TAF package elected not to put in those lower
visbys/ceilings quite yet and will let mid shift evaluate things further.


Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Noon Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
     FOR Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Noon Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
     FOR Adams IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 250509
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1109 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Morning)
Issued at 1213 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

High pressure sitting over Texas today was allowing temperatures to
be a bit warmer than the past few days. Southerly winds were
helping also bring a bit more moisture into the area as well. This
will continue overnight into Wednesday morning as the weak surface
high moves east across the Gulf coast as a surface low moves
southeast across the northern plains.

There is a slight chance that portions of the Ozarks may see sum
light fog early Wednesday morning as the warm air moves over whats
left of the snow cover. The most likely areas will occur where
winds become light and variable.

Temperatures Wednesday will again climb into the middle 30 across
the eastern Ozarks to the middle 40s west of I-49/Highway 71.

The advertised clipper system is continuing to show a slower
movement as was the case with the previous model runs. The main
area of lift still looks to be across central Missouri which will
be where the best chance for accumulating snow to occur.
Accumulations should be around an inch with the best chances again
in central Missouri with the possible southern extent reaching as
far south as the Highway 60 corridor as the system shifts east
into Thursday afternoon with as few flurries hanging around until
sunset.

Another cold air mass will move over the region behind The clipper
system and bring another shot of cold air to the area for Thursday
into Friday with afternoon temperatures staying in the 20s and
overnight lows Friday night falling into the middle single digits
above zero to around 10 degrees with wind chills Friday morning in
the 0 to -9 degree range.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1213 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

GFS/ECM depicting similar mean solution of a digging southwest
upper low that will set up a quasi stationary front over the
weekend. Confidence in where the front will set up is relatively
low but its impact on sensible winter weather will be potentially
high. Of note is the positioning of the next surface high over the
northern high plains along with the positively orientated upper
trough which approximates a favorable pattern for freezing
precipitation. Way too far out to be too specific but model QPF
tied to this pattern makes the forecast one to closely monitor.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1104 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Conditions are clear and 10 sm visibility throughout the CWA as of
05z and generally expecting this to continue through the
overnight. Only fly in ointment will be the potential for some
light fog once the wind diminishes during the overnight, but have
removed from the forecast at this time. Should start to see some
mid level ceilings develop by Wed evening as an upper level
shortwave begins to track southeast into the region.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 250509
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1109 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Morning)
Issued at 1213 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

High pressure sitting over Texas today was allowing temperatures to
be a bit warmer than the past few days. Southerly winds were
helping also bring a bit more moisture into the area as well. This
will continue overnight into Wednesday morning as the weak surface
high moves east across the Gulf coast as a surface low moves
southeast across the northern plains.

There is a slight chance that portions of the Ozarks may see sum
light fog early Wednesday morning as the warm air moves over whats
left of the snow cover. The most likely areas will occur where
winds become light and variable.

Temperatures Wednesday will again climb into the middle 30 across
the eastern Ozarks to the middle 40s west of I-49/Highway 71.

The advertised clipper system is continuing to show a slower
movement as was the case with the previous model runs. The main
area of lift still looks to be across central Missouri which will
be where the best chance for accumulating snow to occur.
Accumulations should be around an inch with the best chances again
in central Missouri with the possible southern extent reaching as
far south as the Highway 60 corridor as the system shifts east
into Thursday afternoon with as few flurries hanging around until
sunset.

Another cold air mass will move over the region behind The clipper
system and bring another shot of cold air to the area for Thursday
into Friday with afternoon temperatures staying in the 20s and
overnight lows Friday night falling into the middle single digits
above zero to around 10 degrees with wind chills Friday morning in
the 0 to -9 degree range.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1213 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

GFS/ECM depicting similar mean solution of a digging southwest
upper low that will set up a quasi stationary front over the
weekend. Confidence in where the front will set up is relatively
low but its impact on sensible winter weather will be potentially
high. Of note is the positioning of the next surface high over the
northern high plains along with the positively orientated upper
trough which approximates a favorable pattern for freezing
precipitation. Way too far out to be too specific but model QPF
tied to this pattern makes the forecast one to closely monitor.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1104 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Conditions are clear and 10 sm visibility throughout the CWA as of
05z and generally expecting this to continue through the
overnight. Only fly in ointment will be the potential for some
light fog once the wind diminishes during the overnight, but have
removed from the forecast at this time. Should start to see some
mid level ceilings develop by Wed evening as an upper level
shortwave begins to track southeast into the region.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KLSX 250339
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
939 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 920 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

Most of the lower level clouds have dissipated or advected east-
southeast of our forecast area this evening. Mid-high level
cloudiness will advect southeastward into our region towards
morning ahead of the approaching storm system in the northern
Plains. Temperatures have been slow to fall so far this evening,
but should see a greater drop later this evening into the
overnight hours due to a clear sky and light surface winds with
weak surface ridging across our area. Low temperatures should be
about 10 degrees below seasonal normals for late February.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 345 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

Expect gusty WSW winds to diminish after sunset. An Arctic front
will pass through the region tonight accompanied by a band of
mid-level clouds, however no precipitation is expected. Winds veer
and become northwesterly for a few hours after fropa, then become
LGT/VAR towards daybreak with the passage of the ridge axis.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

(Wednesday - Friday)

A longwave upper TROF will persist over eastern North America during
this period, signalling a return to below average temps after our
brief foray towards average today.  Of more important note, the
leading edge of this next intrusion of Arctic air will be
accompanied by a weakening clipper system as it drops southward thru
our region late Wednesday and early Thursday.

The models have been pretty good at advertising light snow accums
for much of the region with plenty of cold air in place and decent
SLRs as a result with what limited QPF that is expected to fall.  A
bit better confidence that the system will still be strong enough to
result in 3" or more snowfalls by late Wednesday night for most of
northeast MO and part of west-central IL to result in a Winter Wx
Advisory being hoisted with this package.  Snowfall amounts decrease
as you head south towards I-70, where less than an inch is forecast
for areas south and east of STL.  Start time for this event is a bit
slower than previous packages:  during the afternoon for northeast
MO and west-central IL, and during the evening for the I-70
corridor, perhaps not until late evening.  Advisory may need to be
ultimately expanded southward a bit but will let mid shift make that
call and still get plenty of lead time.

PoPs were boosted to likely for Thursday morning--a trend that has
been continuing for the past couple of days--as a fresh area of
strong frontogenesis slides down and gives a bit of a boost to the
leftover snow.  Additional amounts will be minimal on Thursday--less
than a half inch.

Very cold temps in place Thursday night with some sub-zero values
forecast once again.  Due to forecast winds, wind chills around 15
below appear likely for parts of the northern CWA.

(Saturday - Next Tuesday)

The models continue to advertise the upper level pattern broadening
out to a more W-SW to E-NE flow across much of the CONUS, resulting
in a great flow for a big, late winter storm, provided the cold air
can hang on over our region.  So with confidence, we can go with
reasonably high PoPs for much of this period, with two distinct
episodes of decent pcpn:  Saturday night thru Sunday night and
another round for Monday night and Tuesday.

The trick is how much confidence can we assign to the vertical temp
profiles and layout over our region.  The 12z models all came in a
bit colder this run, especially for the first round of pcpn over the
weekend.  The snow that occurs for the Wed-Thu system will be key.
If enough falls, it will help steer the cold air to leaving more
slowly and in turn steer the storm tracks a bit more south giving us
a snowier solution.  If the mid-week storm flops, then a warmer
solution will be more favored.  Went with better snow coverage on
pcpn-types for the weekend system but also kept a large area of mix
in.

The second round of pcpn looks warmer overall thru the column and
went straight mix for many areas.  Again, the mid-week storm will
have some say in this, but probably in-so-much as low level cold air
gets locked in or not, but not with the better warm air intrusion
aloft that we are looking at with this round due to more backed flow
aloft.  Can`t emphasize this enough but continue to track updates on
this forecast closely as it could be a prolonged major winter storm
event for a good chunk of our region.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 525 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

VFR stratus to pass through the terminals late this evening with
mostly clear skies further to the northwest. Clipper like
disturbance will begin to move southeastward tomorrow. Increasing
clouds with ceilings gradually lowering throughout the day as top-
down saturation occurs. Have light snow with MVFR visbys/ceilings
beginning at KUIN at 21 UTC 25 February and KSTL at 04 UTC 26
February. For KCOU and KSUS/KCPS...it appears light snow will hold
off until after this valid TAF package.


Specifics for KSTL:

VFR stratus to pass through the late this evening with mostly
clear skies further to the northwest. Clipper like disturbance
will begin to move southeastward tomorrow. Increasing clouds with
ceilings gradually lowering throughout the day as top-down
saturation occurs. Have light snow with MVFR visbys/ceilings
beginning at 04 UTC 26 February.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Noon Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
     FOR Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Noon Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
     FOR Adams IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 250339
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
939 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 920 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

Most of the lower level clouds have dissipated or advected east-
southeast of our forecast area this evening. Mid-high level
cloudiness will advect southeastward into our region towards
morning ahead of the approaching storm system in the northern
Plains. Temperatures have been slow to fall so far this evening,
but should see a greater drop later this evening into the
overnight hours due to a clear sky and light surface winds with
weak surface ridging across our area. Low temperatures should be
about 10 degrees below seasonal normals for late February.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 345 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

Expect gusty WSW winds to diminish after sunset. An Arctic front
will pass through the region tonight accompanied by a band of
mid-level clouds, however no precipitation is expected. Winds veer
and become northwesterly for a few hours after fropa, then become
LGT/VAR towards daybreak with the passage of the ridge axis.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

(Wednesday - Friday)

A longwave upper TROF will persist over eastern North America during
this period, signalling a return to below average temps after our
brief foray towards average today.  Of more important note, the
leading edge of this next intrusion of Arctic air will be
accompanied by a weakening clipper system as it drops southward thru
our region late Wednesday and early Thursday.

The models have been pretty good at advertising light snow accums
for much of the region with plenty of cold air in place and decent
SLRs as a result with what limited QPF that is expected to fall.  A
bit better confidence that the system will still be strong enough to
result in 3" or more snowfalls by late Wednesday night for most of
northeast MO and part of west-central IL to result in a Winter Wx
Advisory being hoisted with this package.  Snowfall amounts decrease
as you head south towards I-70, where less than an inch is forecast
for areas south and east of STL.  Start time for this event is a bit
slower than previous packages:  during the afternoon for northeast
MO and west-central IL, and during the evening for the I-70
corridor, perhaps not until late evening.  Advisory may need to be
ultimately expanded southward a bit but will let mid shift make that
call and still get plenty of lead time.

PoPs were boosted to likely for Thursday morning--a trend that has
been continuing for the past couple of days--as a fresh area of
strong frontogenesis slides down and gives a bit of a boost to the
leftover snow.  Additional amounts will be minimal on Thursday--less
than a half inch.

Very cold temps in place Thursday night with some sub-zero values
forecast once again.  Due to forecast winds, wind chills around 15
below appear likely for parts of the northern CWA.

(Saturday - Next Tuesday)

The models continue to advertise the upper level pattern broadening
out to a more W-SW to E-NE flow across much of the CONUS, resulting
in a great flow for a big, late winter storm, provided the cold air
can hang on over our region.  So with confidence, we can go with
reasonably high PoPs for much of this period, with two distinct
episodes of decent pcpn:  Saturday night thru Sunday night and
another round for Monday night and Tuesday.

The trick is how much confidence can we assign to the vertical temp
profiles and layout over our region.  The 12z models all came in a
bit colder this run, especially for the first round of pcpn over the
weekend.  The snow that occurs for the Wed-Thu system will be key.
If enough falls, it will help steer the cold air to leaving more
slowly and in turn steer the storm tracks a bit more south giving us
a snowier solution.  If the mid-week storm flops, then a warmer
solution will be more favored.  Went with better snow coverage on
pcpn-types for the weekend system but also kept a large area of mix
in.

The second round of pcpn looks warmer overall thru the column and
went straight mix for many areas.  Again, the mid-week storm will
have some say in this, but probably in-so-much as low level cold air
gets locked in or not, but not with the better warm air intrusion
aloft that we are looking at with this round due to more backed flow
aloft.  Can`t emphasize this enough but continue to track updates on
this forecast closely as it could be a prolonged major winter storm
event for a good chunk of our region.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 525 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

VFR stratus to pass through the terminals late this evening with
mostly clear skies further to the northwest. Clipper like
disturbance will begin to move southeastward tomorrow. Increasing
clouds with ceilings gradually lowering throughout the day as top-
down saturation occurs. Have light snow with MVFR visbys/ceilings
beginning at KUIN at 21 UTC 25 February and KSTL at 04 UTC 26
February. For KCOU and KSUS/KCPS...it appears light snow will hold
off until after this valid TAF package.


Specifics for KSTL:

VFR stratus to pass through the late this evening with mostly
clear skies further to the northwest. Clipper like disturbance
will begin to move southeastward tomorrow. Increasing clouds with
ceilings gradually lowering throughout the day as top-down
saturation occurs. Have light snow with MVFR visbys/ceilings
beginning at 04 UTC 26 February.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Noon Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
     FOR Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Noon Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
     FOR Adams IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 250339
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
939 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 920 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

Most of the lower level clouds have dissipated or advected east-
southeast of our forecast area this evening. Mid-high level
cloudiness will advect southeastward into our region towards
morning ahead of the approaching storm system in the northern
Plains. Temperatures have been slow to fall so far this evening,
but should see a greater drop later this evening into the
overnight hours due to a clear sky and light surface winds with
weak surface ridging across our area. Low temperatures should be
about 10 degrees below seasonal normals for late February.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 345 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

Expect gusty WSW winds to diminish after sunset. An Arctic front
will pass through the region tonight accompanied by a band of
mid-level clouds, however no precipitation is expected. Winds veer
and become northwesterly for a few hours after fropa, then become
LGT/VAR towards daybreak with the passage of the ridge axis.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

(Wednesday - Friday)

A longwave upper TROF will persist over eastern North America during
this period, signalling a return to below average temps after our
brief foray towards average today.  Of more important note, the
leading edge of this next intrusion of Arctic air will be
accompanied by a weakening clipper system as it drops southward thru
our region late Wednesday and early Thursday.

The models have been pretty good at advertising light snow accums
for much of the region with plenty of cold air in place and decent
SLRs as a result with what limited QPF that is expected to fall.  A
bit better confidence that the system will still be strong enough to
result in 3" or more snowfalls by late Wednesday night for most of
northeast MO and part of west-central IL to result in a Winter Wx
Advisory being hoisted with this package.  Snowfall amounts decrease
as you head south towards I-70, where less than an inch is forecast
for areas south and east of STL.  Start time for this event is a bit
slower than previous packages:  during the afternoon for northeast
MO and west-central IL, and during the evening for the I-70
corridor, perhaps not until late evening.  Advisory may need to be
ultimately expanded southward a bit but will let mid shift make that
call and still get plenty of lead time.

PoPs were boosted to likely for Thursday morning--a trend that has
been continuing for the past couple of days--as a fresh area of
strong frontogenesis slides down and gives a bit of a boost to the
leftover snow.  Additional amounts will be minimal on Thursday--less
than a half inch.

Very cold temps in place Thursday night with some sub-zero values
forecast once again.  Due to forecast winds, wind chills around 15
below appear likely for parts of the northern CWA.

(Saturday - Next Tuesday)

The models continue to advertise the upper level pattern broadening
out to a more W-SW to E-NE flow across much of the CONUS, resulting
in a great flow for a big, late winter storm, provided the cold air
can hang on over our region.  So with confidence, we can go with
reasonably high PoPs for much of this period, with two distinct
episodes of decent pcpn:  Saturday night thru Sunday night and
another round for Monday night and Tuesday.

The trick is how much confidence can we assign to the vertical temp
profiles and layout over our region.  The 12z models all came in a
bit colder this run, especially for the first round of pcpn over the
weekend.  The snow that occurs for the Wed-Thu system will be key.
If enough falls, it will help steer the cold air to leaving more
slowly and in turn steer the storm tracks a bit more south giving us
a snowier solution.  If the mid-week storm flops, then a warmer
solution will be more favored.  Went with better snow coverage on
pcpn-types for the weekend system but also kept a large area of mix
in.

The second round of pcpn looks warmer overall thru the column and
went straight mix for many areas.  Again, the mid-week storm will
have some say in this, but probably in-so-much as low level cold air
gets locked in or not, but not with the better warm air intrusion
aloft that we are looking at with this round due to more backed flow
aloft.  Can`t emphasize this enough but continue to track updates on
this forecast closely as it could be a prolonged major winter storm
event for a good chunk of our region.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 525 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

VFR stratus to pass through the terminals late this evening with
mostly clear skies further to the northwest. Clipper like
disturbance will begin to move southeastward tomorrow. Increasing
clouds with ceilings gradually lowering throughout the day as top-
down saturation occurs. Have light snow with MVFR visbys/ceilings
beginning at KUIN at 21 UTC 25 February and KSTL at 04 UTC 26
February. For KCOU and KSUS/KCPS...it appears light snow will hold
off until after this valid TAF package.


Specifics for KSTL:

VFR stratus to pass through the late this evening with mostly
clear skies further to the northwest. Clipper like disturbance
will begin to move southeastward tomorrow. Increasing clouds with
ceilings gradually lowering throughout the day as top-down
saturation occurs. Have light snow with MVFR visbys/ceilings
beginning at 04 UTC 26 February.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Noon Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
     FOR Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Noon Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
     FOR Adams IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 250338
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
938 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

After much deliberation and collaboration with adjacent offices agree
on the need to slow down the arrival of precipitation into the CWA.
The 00Z NAM is considerably slower than it`s previous runs and is
actually in closer agreement with the 12z GFS and latest SREF. Looks
like there will be two precipitation waves with the warm air
advection driving the first batch that is expected to slide southeast
through northern and central IA very late tonight and tomorrow
morning...and affect the far north central and northeastern counties.
Second wave starting tomorrow afternoon will be aligned with the
increasing frontogenetic forcing.

Going dry overnight and no longer see the need to carry any PoPs
over northwest MO through 18z Wednesday. Have also adjusted rest of the
morning PoPs to affect only the far northeast and north central CWA.
Mainly snow although a rain/snow mix is likely on the southwest
fringe. Looking more and more likely that most of the precipitation
will be post-frontal and the risk of rain within the warm sector is
decreasing. The mid-shift and Wednesday`s day shifts may need to make
adjustments for towards this. For now, don`t want to paint them into
a corner with the GFS, ECMWF, SREF and the local WRFs yet to look at.
Interestingly, even with all the changes there were only minor
changes to the overall snow totals.

Also make adjustments to the hourly temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Warm temperatures, approaching daily normals adorn the forecast area
for today, as good insolation and a westerly surface wind component
combine to bring temperatures back into the 40s for Tuesday.
Although winds have shifted from the west to northwest the warm
temperatures across southern and central Nebraska suggest that we
have nothing to worry about regarding cold air moving in behind the
northwest winds. By tonight, a surface low will form over western
Nebraska and move generally E/SE into SE Nebraska and eventually
into NE Kansas. The effect of this surface low will be to bring the
winds around to the SE for the bulk of Wednesday. This will aid in
keeping the temperatures seasonal for Wednesday - again in the lower
to middle 40s. The surface low will be associated with an upstream
mid level trough, which will move through the area Wednesday night,
bringing with it a chance for accumulating snow, especially across
far northern and central Missouri.

Within the northwest mid level flow there water vapor imagery
suggests an embedded shortwave trough, located roughly over the
Montana Rocky Mountains. Models agree that this wave will continue
along a southeast track into the Northern Plains, then eventually
into northern Missouri. Cold air will generally be in place across
far northern Missouri, prior to the system`s arrival. This will be
more aided by the thick snow pack that has been located across NE
Missouri. Farther south the SE winds will keep the area warm through
a majority of the day. For areas where the cold air will be more
prevalent - namely far N/NE Missouri the initial precipitation with
this wave will be snow, and will likely remain snow for the duration
of the event. expect the first bits of precipitation to form around
12z-15z as the atmospheric column saturates. Expect full saturation
and accumulating precipitation no later than 18z Wednesday
afternoon. As the better lift continues to drift southeastward
through the day on Wednesday precipitation will become more
widespread and snow rates will increase. Forecast soundings indicate
saturation through the -10C to -16C dendritic growth layer through
Wednesday night and into Thursday morning, perhaps through 18z
Thursday across central Missouri. The best snow rates will likely
occur during the overnight period. Regarding the individual elements
of this system, it appears that the majority of the ascent
associated with the precipitation production will be attributed to
the mid level ascent with the shortwave trough, as well as some good
low level frontogenesis. In other words there does not appear to be
a long lasting or deep isentropic component to this system, nor does
there appear to be much in the way of instability enhancing the
ascent. All told, omega values over the areas with best snow
production potential range from -5 to -10 ubars/sec, which is
formidable, but not incredibly impressive. That being said,
generally expect a light to perhaps moderate at times snow fall over
several hours on Wednesday night across northern and central
Missouri. With QPF amounts ranging in the quarter to half inch range
and with snow ratios starting around 12-14:1 eventually rising to
18-20:1 by the end of the event have gone with a general 3 to 6
inches across N/C Missouri, with perhaps a few isolated locations
perhaps reaching 6+ inches. As a result of expected snow amounts
below 6 inches have gone with a Winter Weather Advisory, starting
around noon (18z) Wed afternoon, going through 6am (12z) Thursday
morning. The area within the advisory at this point reflects the
area with the highest confidence of getting 3+ inches of snow. Given
that there is more time between now and when snow will begin south
and west of the current advisory will let the next shift assess the
fringes of the advisory.

Regarding areas south and west of the current advisory, we are still
expecting some light snow fall over just about all of the forecast
area, including the KC Metro on Wednesday night. However, since that
area will be in the lower to middle 40s on Wednesday it will take
longer to cool the thermal column, and perhaps eat into snow totals,
since the early precip could be rain, gradually transitioning
through a rain/snow mix and eventually snow by Wednesday night.
Perhaps .10"-.20" of QPF is expected over these areas, which would
translate to around and inch or two of snow in the areas not listed
in the current advisory. Farther to the south and west - namely in
the Kansas counties and far southern Missouri zones, anticipating
only a dusting to perhaps an inch, as models continue to show the
system weakening fairly quickly upon arrival into northern Missouri.

Expect some light lingering snow to remain through the morning hours
on Thursday, but by then the bulk of the precipitation will have
fallen. Thereafter another very cold air mass will move into the
area, bringing temperatures back into the teens and lower 20s for
Thursday and Friday. Wind chill values for Thursday morning will
droop to around zero for the I-70 corridor, with WC values
approaching -10 toward the IA/MO border. For Friday morning wind
chill values will be well below zero across the entire area, with
the IA/MO border area reaching -10 to -20.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 342 PM CST TUE FEB
24 2015

The later half of the forecast continues to advertise a very active
pattern for our section of the country starting this weekend and
persisting into next work week.

Overall pattern towards the end of the work week will be adjusting
form a northwest flow, which helped bring our recent bout of cold
temperatures, to more of a locally zonal flow as energy tumbles
over the peak of the east Pacific ridge, ultimately developing a
large sheared trough over the west coast this weekend. This pattern
is similar to one that brought some 36 hours worth of stormy weather
back on January 31st into the beginning of February, as a shearing
wave to our west spit out bits of vorticity into and through a
convergent flow in the Central Plains. Specific confidence on the
forecast for anyone day this weekend into next week is rather low
owing to uncertainties in thermal profile, small temperature
difference means big precipitation type differences, but there is a
sufficient single to warrant keeping our POPs fairly high as we
transit through Saturday and into Sunday.

Moisture return will get going Friday as a cold dry surface high
slides off to the east. This will keep conditions precipitation free
for Friday, but also rather cold as the advertised surface high will
have a pressure of 1040mb. Precipitation will likely spread into our
region during the day Saturday, with current temperatures making
p-types look like snow. However, as the weekend progresses the warm
air advection that is inducing much of the advertised precipitation
will modify the thermal profile sufficiently Sunday morning through
Sunday afternoon enough to induce a precipitation changes. This cold
mean we start Sunday with snow, only to have it transit through
sleet and freezing rain to just rain for a bit in the afternoon,
before temperatures cool back down that night. Precipitation type
issues will likely persist into Monday as the flow will remain
relatively flat into the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 528 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Clouds will begin to increase in coverage overnight as the next storm
system begins to impact the region. Winds will become light overnight,
becoming more southeasterly by tomorrow morning and then southerly
the remainder of the period. Precip chances will also increase
towards the later half of the prevailing period with rain showers
beginning to develop during the late morning and early afternoon hours.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Noon Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
     FOR MOZ002>008-014>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...PMM






000
FXUS63 KEAX 250338
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
938 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

After much deliberation and collaboration with adjacent offices agree
on the need to slow down the arrival of precipitation into the CWA.
The 00Z NAM is considerably slower than it`s previous runs and is
actually in closer agreement with the 12z GFS and latest SREF. Looks
like there will be two precipitation waves with the warm air
advection driving the first batch that is expected to slide southeast
through northern and central IA very late tonight and tomorrow
morning...and affect the far north central and northeastern counties.
Second wave starting tomorrow afternoon will be aligned with the
increasing frontogenetic forcing.

Going dry overnight and no longer see the need to carry any PoPs
over northwest MO through 18z Wednesday. Have also adjusted rest of the
morning PoPs to affect only the far northeast and north central CWA.
Mainly snow although a rain/snow mix is likely on the southwest
fringe. Looking more and more likely that most of the precipitation
will be post-frontal and the risk of rain within the warm sector is
decreasing. The mid-shift and Wednesday`s day shifts may need to make
adjustments for towards this. For now, don`t want to paint them into
a corner with the GFS, ECMWF, SREF and the local WRFs yet to look at.
Interestingly, even with all the changes there were only minor
changes to the overall snow totals.

Also make adjustments to the hourly temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Warm temperatures, approaching daily normals adorn the forecast area
for today, as good insolation and a westerly surface wind component
combine to bring temperatures back into the 40s for Tuesday.
Although winds have shifted from the west to northwest the warm
temperatures across southern and central Nebraska suggest that we
have nothing to worry about regarding cold air moving in behind the
northwest winds. By tonight, a surface low will form over western
Nebraska and move generally E/SE into SE Nebraska and eventually
into NE Kansas. The effect of this surface low will be to bring the
winds around to the SE for the bulk of Wednesday. This will aid in
keeping the temperatures seasonal for Wednesday - again in the lower
to middle 40s. The surface low will be associated with an upstream
mid level trough, which will move through the area Wednesday night,
bringing with it a chance for accumulating snow, especially across
far northern and central Missouri.

Within the northwest mid level flow there water vapor imagery
suggests an embedded shortwave trough, located roughly over the
Montana Rocky Mountains. Models agree that this wave will continue
along a southeast track into the Northern Plains, then eventually
into northern Missouri. Cold air will generally be in place across
far northern Missouri, prior to the system`s arrival. This will be
more aided by the thick snow pack that has been located across NE
Missouri. Farther south the SE winds will keep the area warm through
a majority of the day. For areas where the cold air will be more
prevalent - namely far N/NE Missouri the initial precipitation with
this wave will be snow, and will likely remain snow for the duration
of the event. expect the first bits of precipitation to form around
12z-15z as the atmospheric column saturates. Expect full saturation
and accumulating precipitation no later than 18z Wednesday
afternoon. As the better lift continues to drift southeastward
through the day on Wednesday precipitation will become more
widespread and snow rates will increase. Forecast soundings indicate
saturation through the -10C to -16C dendritic growth layer through
Wednesday night and into Thursday morning, perhaps through 18z
Thursday across central Missouri. The best snow rates will likely
occur during the overnight period. Regarding the individual elements
of this system, it appears that the majority of the ascent
associated with the precipitation production will be attributed to
the mid level ascent with the shortwave trough, as well as some good
low level frontogenesis. In other words there does not appear to be
a long lasting or deep isentropic component to this system, nor does
there appear to be much in the way of instability enhancing the
ascent. All told, omega values over the areas with best snow
production potential range from -5 to -10 ubars/sec, which is
formidable, but not incredibly impressive. That being said,
generally expect a light to perhaps moderate at times snow fall over
several hours on Wednesday night across northern and central
Missouri. With QPF amounts ranging in the quarter to half inch range
and with snow ratios starting around 12-14:1 eventually rising to
18-20:1 by the end of the event have gone with a general 3 to 6
inches across N/C Missouri, with perhaps a few isolated locations
perhaps reaching 6+ inches. As a result of expected snow amounts
below 6 inches have gone with a Winter Weather Advisory, starting
around noon (18z) Wed afternoon, going through 6am (12z) Thursday
morning. The area within the advisory at this point reflects the
area with the highest confidence of getting 3+ inches of snow. Given
that there is more time between now and when snow will begin south
and west of the current advisory will let the next shift assess the
fringes of the advisory.

Regarding areas south and west of the current advisory, we are still
expecting some light snow fall over just about all of the forecast
area, including the KC Metro on Wednesday night. However, since that
area will be in the lower to middle 40s on Wednesday it will take
longer to cool the thermal column, and perhaps eat into snow totals,
since the early precip could be rain, gradually transitioning
through a rain/snow mix and eventually snow by Wednesday night.
Perhaps .10"-.20" of QPF is expected over these areas, which would
translate to around and inch or two of snow in the areas not listed
in the current advisory. Farther to the south and west - namely in
the Kansas counties and far southern Missouri zones, anticipating
only a dusting to perhaps an inch, as models continue to show the
system weakening fairly quickly upon arrival into northern Missouri.

Expect some light lingering snow to remain through the morning hours
on Thursday, but by then the bulk of the precipitation will have
fallen. Thereafter another very cold air mass will move into the
area, bringing temperatures back into the teens and lower 20s for
Thursday and Friday. Wind chill values for Thursday morning will
droop to around zero for the I-70 corridor, with WC values
approaching -10 toward the IA/MO border. For Friday morning wind
chill values will be well below zero across the entire area, with
the IA/MO border area reaching -10 to -20.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 342 PM CST TUE FEB
24 2015

The later half of the forecast continues to advertise a very active
pattern for our section of the country starting this weekend and
persisting into next work week.

Overall pattern towards the end of the work week will be adjusting
form a northwest flow, which helped bring our recent bout of cold
temperatures, to more of a locally zonal flow as energy tumbles
over the peak of the east Pacific ridge, ultimately developing a
large sheared trough over the west coast this weekend. This pattern
is similar to one that brought some 36 hours worth of stormy weather
back on January 31st into the beginning of February, as a shearing
wave to our west spit out bits of vorticity into and through a
convergent flow in the Central Plains. Specific confidence on the
forecast for anyone day this weekend into next week is rather low
owing to uncertainties in thermal profile, small temperature
difference means big precipitation type differences, but there is a
sufficient single to warrant keeping our POPs fairly high as we
transit through Saturday and into Sunday.

Moisture return will get going Friday as a cold dry surface high
slides off to the east. This will keep conditions precipitation free
for Friday, but also rather cold as the advertised surface high will
have a pressure of 1040mb. Precipitation will likely spread into our
region during the day Saturday, with current temperatures making
p-types look like snow. However, as the weekend progresses the warm
air advection that is inducing much of the advertised precipitation
will modify the thermal profile sufficiently Sunday morning through
Sunday afternoon enough to induce a precipitation changes. This cold
mean we start Sunday with snow, only to have it transit through
sleet and freezing rain to just rain for a bit in the afternoon,
before temperatures cool back down that night. Precipitation type
issues will likely persist into Monday as the flow will remain
relatively flat into the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 528 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Clouds will begin to increase in coverage overnight as the next storm
system begins to impact the region. Winds will become light overnight,
becoming more southeasterly by tomorrow morning and then southerly
the remainder of the period. Precip chances will also increase
towards the later half of the prevailing period with rain showers
beginning to develop during the late morning and early afternoon hours.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Noon Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
     FOR MOZ002>008-014>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...PMM






000
FXUS63 KEAX 250338
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
938 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

After much deliberation and collaboration with adjacent offices agree
on the need to slow down the arrival of precipitation into the CWA.
The 00Z NAM is considerably slower than it`s previous runs and is
actually in closer agreement with the 12z GFS and latest SREF. Looks
like there will be two precipitation waves with the warm air
advection driving the first batch that is expected to slide southeast
through northern and central IA very late tonight and tomorrow
morning...and affect the far north central and northeastern counties.
Second wave starting tomorrow afternoon will be aligned with the
increasing frontogenetic forcing.

Going dry overnight and no longer see the need to carry any PoPs
over northwest MO through 18z Wednesday. Have also adjusted rest of the
morning PoPs to affect only the far northeast and north central CWA.
Mainly snow although a rain/snow mix is likely on the southwest
fringe. Looking more and more likely that most of the precipitation
will be post-frontal and the risk of rain within the warm sector is
decreasing. The mid-shift and Wednesday`s day shifts may need to make
adjustments for towards this. For now, don`t want to paint them into
a corner with the GFS, ECMWF, SREF and the local WRFs yet to look at.
Interestingly, even with all the changes there were only minor
changes to the overall snow totals.

Also make adjustments to the hourly temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Warm temperatures, approaching daily normals adorn the forecast area
for today, as good insolation and a westerly surface wind component
combine to bring temperatures back into the 40s for Tuesday.
Although winds have shifted from the west to northwest the warm
temperatures across southern and central Nebraska suggest that we
have nothing to worry about regarding cold air moving in behind the
northwest winds. By tonight, a surface low will form over western
Nebraska and move generally E/SE into SE Nebraska and eventually
into NE Kansas. The effect of this surface low will be to bring the
winds around to the SE for the bulk of Wednesday. This will aid in
keeping the temperatures seasonal for Wednesday - again in the lower
to middle 40s. The surface low will be associated with an upstream
mid level trough, which will move through the area Wednesday night,
bringing with it a chance for accumulating snow, especially across
far northern and central Missouri.

Within the northwest mid level flow there water vapor imagery
suggests an embedded shortwave trough, located roughly over the
Montana Rocky Mountains. Models agree that this wave will continue
along a southeast track into the Northern Plains, then eventually
into northern Missouri. Cold air will generally be in place across
far northern Missouri, prior to the system`s arrival. This will be
more aided by the thick snow pack that has been located across NE
Missouri. Farther south the SE winds will keep the area warm through
a majority of the day. For areas where the cold air will be more
prevalent - namely far N/NE Missouri the initial precipitation with
this wave will be snow, and will likely remain snow for the duration
of the event. expect the first bits of precipitation to form around
12z-15z as the atmospheric column saturates. Expect full saturation
and accumulating precipitation no later than 18z Wednesday
afternoon. As the better lift continues to drift southeastward
through the day on Wednesday precipitation will become more
widespread and snow rates will increase. Forecast soundings indicate
saturation through the -10C to -16C dendritic growth layer through
Wednesday night and into Thursday morning, perhaps through 18z
Thursday across central Missouri. The best snow rates will likely
occur during the overnight period. Regarding the individual elements
of this system, it appears that the majority of the ascent
associated with the precipitation production will be attributed to
the mid level ascent with the shortwave trough, as well as some good
low level frontogenesis. In other words there does not appear to be
a long lasting or deep isentropic component to this system, nor does
there appear to be much in the way of instability enhancing the
ascent. All told, omega values over the areas with best snow
production potential range from -5 to -10 ubars/sec, which is
formidable, but not incredibly impressive. That being said,
generally expect a light to perhaps moderate at times snow fall over
several hours on Wednesday night across northern and central
Missouri. With QPF amounts ranging in the quarter to half inch range
and with snow ratios starting around 12-14:1 eventually rising to
18-20:1 by the end of the event have gone with a general 3 to 6
inches across N/C Missouri, with perhaps a few isolated locations
perhaps reaching 6+ inches. As a result of expected snow amounts
below 6 inches have gone with a Winter Weather Advisory, starting
around noon (18z) Wed afternoon, going through 6am (12z) Thursday
morning. The area within the advisory at this point reflects the
area with the highest confidence of getting 3+ inches of snow. Given
that there is more time between now and when snow will begin south
and west of the current advisory will let the next shift assess the
fringes of the advisory.

Regarding areas south and west of the current advisory, we are still
expecting some light snow fall over just about all of the forecast
area, including the KC Metro on Wednesday night. However, since that
area will be in the lower to middle 40s on Wednesday it will take
longer to cool the thermal column, and perhaps eat into snow totals,
since the early precip could be rain, gradually transitioning
through a rain/snow mix and eventually snow by Wednesday night.
Perhaps .10"-.20" of QPF is expected over these areas, which would
translate to around and inch or two of snow in the areas not listed
in the current advisory. Farther to the south and west - namely in
the Kansas counties and far southern Missouri zones, anticipating
only a dusting to perhaps an inch, as models continue to show the
system weakening fairly quickly upon arrival into northern Missouri.

Expect some light lingering snow to remain through the morning hours
on Thursday, but by then the bulk of the precipitation will have
fallen. Thereafter another very cold air mass will move into the
area, bringing temperatures back into the teens and lower 20s for
Thursday and Friday. Wind chill values for Thursday morning will
droop to around zero for the I-70 corridor, with WC values
approaching -10 toward the IA/MO border. For Friday morning wind
chill values will be well below zero across the entire area, with
the IA/MO border area reaching -10 to -20.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 342 PM CST TUE FEB
24 2015

The later half of the forecast continues to advertise a very active
pattern for our section of the country starting this weekend and
persisting into next work week.

Overall pattern towards the end of the work week will be adjusting
form a northwest flow, which helped bring our recent bout of cold
temperatures, to more of a locally zonal flow as energy tumbles
over the peak of the east Pacific ridge, ultimately developing a
large sheared trough over the west coast this weekend. This pattern
is similar to one that brought some 36 hours worth of stormy weather
back on January 31st into the beginning of February, as a shearing
wave to our west spit out bits of vorticity into and through a
convergent flow in the Central Plains. Specific confidence on the
forecast for anyone day this weekend into next week is rather low
owing to uncertainties in thermal profile, small temperature
difference means big precipitation type differences, but there is a
sufficient single to warrant keeping our POPs fairly high as we
transit through Saturday and into Sunday.

Moisture return will get going Friday as a cold dry surface high
slides off to the east. This will keep conditions precipitation free
for Friday, but also rather cold as the advertised surface high will
have a pressure of 1040mb. Precipitation will likely spread into our
region during the day Saturday, with current temperatures making
p-types look like snow. However, as the weekend progresses the warm
air advection that is inducing much of the advertised precipitation
will modify the thermal profile sufficiently Sunday morning through
Sunday afternoon enough to induce a precipitation changes. This cold
mean we start Sunday with snow, only to have it transit through
sleet and freezing rain to just rain for a bit in the afternoon,
before temperatures cool back down that night. Precipitation type
issues will likely persist into Monday as the flow will remain
relatively flat into the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 528 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Clouds will begin to increase in coverage overnight as the next storm
system begins to impact the region. Winds will become light overnight,
becoming more southeasterly by tomorrow morning and then southerly
the remainder of the period. Precip chances will also increase
towards the later half of the prevailing period with rain showers
beginning to develop during the late morning and early afternoon hours.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Noon Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
     FOR MOZ002>008-014>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...PMM







000
FXUS63 KEAX 242347
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
547 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Warm temperatures, approaching daily normals adorn the forecast area
for today, as good insolation and a westerly surface wind component
combine to bring temperatures back into the 40s for Tuesday.
Although winds have shifted from the west to northwest the warm
temperatures across southern and central Nebraska suggest that we
have nothing to worry about regarding cold air moving in behind the
northwest winds. By tonight, a surface low will form over western
Nebraska and move generally E/SE into SE Nebraska and eventually
into NE Kansas. The effect of this surface low will be to bring the
winds around to the SE for the bulk of Wednesday. This will aid in
keeping the temperatures seasonal for Wednesday - again in the lower
to middle 40s. The surface low will be associated with an upstream
mid level trough, which will move through the area Wednesday night,
bringing with it a chance for accumulating snow, especially across
far northern and central Missouri.

Within the northwest mid level flow there water vapor imagery
suggests an embedded shortwave trough, located roughly over the
Montana Rocky Mountains. Models agree that this wave will continue
along a southeast track into the Northern Plains, then eventually
into northern Missouri. Cold air will generally be in place across
far northern Missouri, prior to the system`s arrival. This will be
more aided by the thick snow pack that has been located across NE
Missouri. Farther south the SE winds will keep the area warm through
a majority of the day. For areas where the cold air will be more
prevalent - namely far N/NE Missouri the initial precipitation with
this wave will be snow, and will likely remain snow for the duration
of the event. expect the first bits of precipitation to form around
12z-15z as the atmospheric column saturates. Expect full saturation
and accumulating precipitation no later than 18z Wednesday
afternoon. As the better lift continues to drift southeastward
through the day on Wednesday precipitation will become more
widespread and snow rates will increase. Forecast soundings indicate
saturation through the -10C to -16C dendritic growth layer through
Wednesday night and into Thursday morning, perhaps through 18z
Thursday across central Missouri. The best snow rates will likely
occur during the overnight period. Regarding the individual elements
of this system, it appears that the majority of the ascent
associated with the precipitation production will be attributed to
the mid level ascent with the shortwave trough, as well as some good
low level frontogenesis. In other words there does not appear to be
a long lasting or deep isentropic component to this system, nor does
there appear to be much in the way of instability enhancing the
ascent. All told, omega values over the areas with best snow
production potential range from -5 to -10 ubars/sec, which is
formidable, but not incredibly impressive. That being said,
generally expect a light to perhaps moderate at times snow fall over
several hours on Wednesday night across northern and central
Missouri. With QPF amounts ranging in the quarter to half inch range
and with snow ratios starting around 12-14:1 eventually rising to
18-20:1 by the end of the event have gone with a general 3 to 6
inches across N/C Missouri, with perhaps a few isolated locations
perhaps reaching 6+ inches. As a result of expected snow amounts
below 6 inches have gone with a Winter Weather Advisory, starting
around noon (18z) Wed afternoon, going through 6am (12z) Thursday
morning. The area within the advisory at this point reflects the
area with the highest confidence of getting 3+ inches of snow. Given
that there is more time between now and when snow will begin south
and west of the current advisory will let the next shift assess the
fringes of the advisory.

Regarding areas south and west of the current advisory, we are still
expecting some light snow fall over just about all of the forecast
area, including the KC Metro on Wednesday night. However, since that
area will be in the lower to middle 40s on Wednesday it will take
longer to cool the thermal column, and perhaps eat into snow totals,
since the early precip could be rain, gradually transitioning
through a rain/snow mix and eventually snow by Wednesday night.
Perhaps .10"-.20" of QPF is expected over these areas, which would
translate to around and inch or two of snow in the areas not listed
in the current advisory. Farther to the south and west - namely in
the Kansas counties and far southern Missouri zones, anticipating
only a dusting to perhaps an inch, as models continue to show the
system weakening fairly quickly upon arrival into northern Missouri.

Expect some light lingering snow to remain through the morning hours
on Thursday, but by then the bulk of the precipitation will have
fallen. Thereafter another very cold air mass will move into the
area, bringing temperatures back into the teens and lower 20s for
Thursday and Friday. Wind chill values for Thursday morning will
droop to around zero for the I-70 corridor, with WC values
approaching -10 toward the IA/MO border. For Friday morning wind
chill values will be well below zero across the entire area, with
the IA/MO border area reaching -10 to -20.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 342 PM CST TUE FEB
24 2015

The later half of the forecast continues to advertise a very active
pattern for our section of the country starting this weekend and
persisting into next work week.

Overall pattern towards the end of the work week will be adjusting
form a northwest flow, which helped bring our recent bout of cold
temperatures, to more of a locally zonal flow as energy tumbles
over the peak of the east Pacific ridge, ultimately developing a
large sheared trough over the west coast this weekend. This pattern
is similar to one that brought some 36 hours worth of stormy weather
back on January 31st into the beginning of February, as a shearing
wave to our west spit out bits of vorticity into and through a
convergent flow in the Central Plains. Specific confidence on the
forecast for anyone day this weekend into next week is rather low
owing to uncertainties in thermal profile, small temperature
difference means big precipitation type differences, but there is a
sufficient single to warrant keeping our POPs fairly high as we
transit through Saturday and into Sunday.

Moisture return will get going Friday as a cold dry surface high
slides off to the east. This will keep conditions precipitation free
for Friday, but also rather cold as the advertised surface high will
have a pressure of 1040mb. Precipitation will likely spread into our
region during the day Saturday, with current temperatures making
p-types look like snow. However, as the weekend progresses the warm
air advection that is inducing much of the advertised precipitation
will modify the thermal profile sufficiently Sunday morning through
Sunday afternoon enough to induce a precipitation changes. This cold
mean we start Sunday with snow, only to have it transit through
sleet and freezing rain to just rain for a bit in the afternoon,
before temperatures cool back down that night. Precipitation type
issues will likely persist into Monday as the flow will remain
relatively flat into the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 528 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Clouds will begin to increase in coverage overnight as the next storm
system begins to impact the region. Winds will become light overnight,
becoming more southeasterly by tomorrow morning and then southerly
the remainder of the period. Precip chances will also increase
towards the later half of the prevailing period with rain showers
beginning to develop during the late morning and early afternoon hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Noon Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
     FOR MOZ002>008-014>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...PMM







000
FXUS63 KEAX 242347
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
547 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Warm temperatures, approaching daily normals adorn the forecast area
for today, as good insolation and a westerly surface wind component
combine to bring temperatures back into the 40s for Tuesday.
Although winds have shifted from the west to northwest the warm
temperatures across southern and central Nebraska suggest that we
have nothing to worry about regarding cold air moving in behind the
northwest winds. By tonight, a surface low will form over western
Nebraska and move generally E/SE into SE Nebraska and eventually
into NE Kansas. The effect of this surface low will be to bring the
winds around to the SE for the bulk of Wednesday. This will aid in
keeping the temperatures seasonal for Wednesday - again in the lower
to middle 40s. The surface low will be associated with an upstream
mid level trough, which will move through the area Wednesday night,
bringing with it a chance for accumulating snow, especially across
far northern and central Missouri.

Within the northwest mid level flow there water vapor imagery
suggests an embedded shortwave trough, located roughly over the
Montana Rocky Mountains. Models agree that this wave will continue
along a southeast track into the Northern Plains, then eventually
into northern Missouri. Cold air will generally be in place across
far northern Missouri, prior to the system`s arrival. This will be
more aided by the thick snow pack that has been located across NE
Missouri. Farther south the SE winds will keep the area warm through
a majority of the day. For areas where the cold air will be more
prevalent - namely far N/NE Missouri the initial precipitation with
this wave will be snow, and will likely remain snow for the duration
of the event. expect the first bits of precipitation to form around
12z-15z as the atmospheric column saturates. Expect full saturation
and accumulating precipitation no later than 18z Wednesday
afternoon. As the better lift continues to drift southeastward
through the day on Wednesday precipitation will become more
widespread and snow rates will increase. Forecast soundings indicate
saturation through the -10C to -16C dendritic growth layer through
Wednesday night and into Thursday morning, perhaps through 18z
Thursday across central Missouri. The best snow rates will likely
occur during the overnight period. Regarding the individual elements
of this system, it appears that the majority of the ascent
associated with the precipitation production will be attributed to
the mid level ascent with the shortwave trough, as well as some good
low level frontogenesis. In other words there does not appear to be
a long lasting or deep isentropic component to this system, nor does
there appear to be much in the way of instability enhancing the
ascent. All told, omega values over the areas with best snow
production potential range from -5 to -10 ubars/sec, which is
formidable, but not incredibly impressive. That being said,
generally expect a light to perhaps moderate at times snow fall over
several hours on Wednesday night across northern and central
Missouri. With QPF amounts ranging in the quarter to half inch range
and with snow ratios starting around 12-14:1 eventually rising to
18-20:1 by the end of the event have gone with a general 3 to 6
inches across N/C Missouri, with perhaps a few isolated locations
perhaps reaching 6+ inches. As a result of expected snow amounts
below 6 inches have gone with a Winter Weather Advisory, starting
around noon (18z) Wed afternoon, going through 6am (12z) Thursday
morning. The area within the advisory at this point reflects the
area with the highest confidence of getting 3+ inches of snow. Given
that there is more time between now and when snow will begin south
and west of the current advisory will let the next shift assess the
fringes of the advisory.

Regarding areas south and west of the current advisory, we are still
expecting some light snow fall over just about all of the forecast
area, including the KC Metro on Wednesday night. However, since that
area will be in the lower to middle 40s on Wednesday it will take
longer to cool the thermal column, and perhaps eat into snow totals,
since the early precip could be rain, gradually transitioning
through a rain/snow mix and eventually snow by Wednesday night.
Perhaps .10"-.20" of QPF is expected over these areas, which would
translate to around and inch or two of snow in the areas not listed
in the current advisory. Farther to the south and west - namely in
the Kansas counties and far southern Missouri zones, anticipating
only a dusting to perhaps an inch, as models continue to show the
system weakening fairly quickly upon arrival into northern Missouri.

Expect some light lingering snow to remain through the morning hours
on Thursday, but by then the bulk of the precipitation will have
fallen. Thereafter another very cold air mass will move into the
area, bringing temperatures back into the teens and lower 20s for
Thursday and Friday. Wind chill values for Thursday morning will
droop to around zero for the I-70 corridor, with WC values
approaching -10 toward the IA/MO border. For Friday morning wind
chill values will be well below zero across the entire area, with
the IA/MO border area reaching -10 to -20.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 342 PM CST TUE FEB
24 2015

The later half of the forecast continues to advertise a very active
pattern for our section of the country starting this weekend and
persisting into next work week.

Overall pattern towards the end of the work week will be adjusting
form a northwest flow, which helped bring our recent bout of cold
temperatures, to more of a locally zonal flow as energy tumbles
over the peak of the east Pacific ridge, ultimately developing a
large sheared trough over the west coast this weekend. This pattern
is similar to one that brought some 36 hours worth of stormy weather
back on January 31st into the beginning of February, as a shearing
wave to our west spit out bits of vorticity into and through a
convergent flow in the Central Plains. Specific confidence on the
forecast for anyone day this weekend into next week is rather low
owing to uncertainties in thermal profile, small temperature
difference means big precipitation type differences, but there is a
sufficient single to warrant keeping our POPs fairly high as we
transit through Saturday and into Sunday.

Moisture return will get going Friday as a cold dry surface high
slides off to the east. This will keep conditions precipitation free
for Friday, but also rather cold as the advertised surface high will
have a pressure of 1040mb. Precipitation will likely spread into our
region during the day Saturday, with current temperatures making
p-types look like snow. However, as the weekend progresses the warm
air advection that is inducing much of the advertised precipitation
will modify the thermal profile sufficiently Sunday morning through
Sunday afternoon enough to induce a precipitation changes. This cold
mean we start Sunday with snow, only to have it transit through
sleet and freezing rain to just rain for a bit in the afternoon,
before temperatures cool back down that night. Precipitation type
issues will likely persist into Monday as the flow will remain
relatively flat into the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 528 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Clouds will begin to increase in coverage overnight as the next storm
system begins to impact the region. Winds will become light overnight,
becoming more southeasterly by tomorrow morning and then southerly
the remainder of the period. Precip chances will also increase
towards the later half of the prevailing period with rain showers
beginning to develop during the late morning and early afternoon hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Noon Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
     FOR MOZ002>008-014>017-023>025-032-033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...PMM






000
FXUS63 KLSX 242329
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
529 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 345 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

Expect gusty WSW winds to diminish after sunset. An Arctic front
will pass through the region tonight accompanied by a band of
mid-level clouds, however no precipitation is expected. Winds veer
and become northwesterly for a few hours after fropa, then become
LGT/VAR towards daybreak with the passage of the ridge axis.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

(Wednesday - Friday)

A longwave upper TROF will persist over eastern North America during
this period, signalling a return to below average temps after our
brief foray towards average today.  Of more important note, the
leading edge of this next intrusion of Arctic air will be
accompanied by a weakening clipper system as it drops southward thru
our region late Wednesday and early Thursday.

The models have been pretty good at advertising light snow accums
for much of the region with plenty of cold air in place and decent
SLRs as a result with what limited QPF that is expected to fall.  A
bit better confidence that the system will still be strong enough to
result in 3" or more snowfalls by late Wednesday night for most of
northeast MO and part of west-central IL to result in a Winter Wx
Advisory being hoisted with this package.  Snowfall amounts decrease
as you head south towards I-70, where less than an inch is forecast
for areas south and east of STL.  Start time for this event is a bit
slower than previous packages:  during the afternoon for northeast
MO and west-central IL, and during the evening for the I-70
corridor, perhaps not until late evening.  Advisory may need to be
ultimately expanded southward a bit but will let mid shift make that
call and still get plenty of lead time.

PoPs were boosted to likely for Thursday morning--a trend that has
been continuing for the past couple of days--as a fresh area of
strong frontogenesis slides down and gives a bit of a boost to the
leftover snow.  Additional amounts will be minimal on Thursday--less
than a half inch.

Very cold temps in place Thursday night with some sub-zero values
forecast once again.  Due to forecast winds, wind chills around 15
below appear likely for parts of the northern CWA.

(Saturday - Next Tuesday)

The models continue to advertise the upper level pattern broadening
out to a more W-SW to E-NE flow across much of the CONUS, resulting
in a great flow for a big, late winter storm, provided the cold air
can hang on over our region.  So with confidence, we can go with
reasonably high PoPs for much of this period, with two distinct
episodes of decent pcpn:  Saturday night thru Sunday night and
another round for Monday night and Tuesday.

The trick is how much confidence can we assign to the vertical temp
profiles and layout over our region.  The 12z models all came in a
bit colder this run, especially for the first round of pcpn over the
weekend.  The snow that occurs for the Wed-Thu system will be key.
If enough falls, it will help steer the cold air to leaving more
slowly and in turn steer the storm tracks a bit more south giving us
a snowier solution.  If the mid-week storm flops, then a warmer
solution will be more favored.  Went with better snow coverage on
pcpn-types for the weekend system but also kept a large area of mix
in.

The second round of pcpn looks warmer overall thru the column and
went straight mix for many areas.  Again, the mid-week storm will
have some say in this, but probably in-so-much as low level cold air
gets locked in or not, but not with the better warm air intrusion
aloft that we are looking at with this round due to more backed flow
aloft.  Can`t emphasize this enough but continue to track updates on
this forecast closely as it could be a prolonged major winter storm
event for a good chunk of our region.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 525 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

VFR stratus to pass through the terminals late this evening with
mostly clear skies further to the northwest. Clipper like
disturbance will begin to move southeastward tomorrow. Increasing
clouds with ceilings gradually lowering throughout the day as top-
down saturation occurs. Have light snow with MVFR visbys/ceilings
beginning at KUIN at 21 UTC 25 February and KSTL at 04 UTC 26
February. For KCOU and KSUS/KCPS...it appears light snow will hold
off until after this valid TAF package.


Specifics for KSTL:

VFR stratus to pass through the late this evening with mostly
clear skies further to the northwest. Clipper like disturbance
will begin to move southeastward tomorrow. Increasing clouds with
ceilings gradually lowering throughout the day as top-down
saturation occurs. Have light snow with MVFR visbys/ceilings
beginning at 04 UTC 26 February.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Noon Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
     FOR Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Noon Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
     FOR Adams IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 242329
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
529 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 345 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

Expect gusty WSW winds to diminish after sunset. An Arctic front
will pass through the region tonight accompanied by a band of
mid-level clouds, however no precipitation is expected. Winds veer
and become northwesterly for a few hours after fropa, then become
LGT/VAR towards daybreak with the passage of the ridge axis.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

(Wednesday - Friday)

A longwave upper TROF will persist over eastern North America during
this period, signalling a return to below average temps after our
brief foray towards average today.  Of more important note, the
leading edge of this next intrusion of Arctic air will be
accompanied by a weakening clipper system as it drops southward thru
our region late Wednesday and early Thursday.

The models have been pretty good at advertising light snow accums
for much of the region with plenty of cold air in place and decent
SLRs as a result with what limited QPF that is expected to fall.  A
bit better confidence that the system will still be strong enough to
result in 3" or more snowfalls by late Wednesday night for most of
northeast MO and part of west-central IL to result in a Winter Wx
Advisory being hoisted with this package.  Snowfall amounts decrease
as you head south towards I-70, where less than an inch is forecast
for areas south and east of STL.  Start time for this event is a bit
slower than previous packages:  during the afternoon for northeast
MO and west-central IL, and during the evening for the I-70
corridor, perhaps not until late evening.  Advisory may need to be
ultimately expanded southward a bit but will let mid shift make that
call and still get plenty of lead time.

PoPs were boosted to likely for Thursday morning--a trend that has
been continuing for the past couple of days--as a fresh area of
strong frontogenesis slides down and gives a bit of a boost to the
leftover snow.  Additional amounts will be minimal on Thursday--less
than a half inch.

Very cold temps in place Thursday night with some sub-zero values
forecast once again.  Due to forecast winds, wind chills around 15
below appear likely for parts of the northern CWA.

(Saturday - Next Tuesday)

The models continue to advertise the upper level pattern broadening
out to a more W-SW to E-NE flow across much of the CONUS, resulting
in a great flow for a big, late winter storm, provided the cold air
can hang on over our region.  So with confidence, we can go with
reasonably high PoPs for much of this period, with two distinct
episodes of decent pcpn:  Saturday night thru Sunday night and
another round for Monday night and Tuesday.

The trick is how much confidence can we assign to the vertical temp
profiles and layout over our region.  The 12z models all came in a
bit colder this run, especially for the first round of pcpn over the
weekend.  The snow that occurs for the Wed-Thu system will be key.
If enough falls, it will help steer the cold air to leaving more
slowly and in turn steer the storm tracks a bit more south giving us
a snowier solution.  If the mid-week storm flops, then a warmer
solution will be more favored.  Went with better snow coverage on
pcpn-types for the weekend system but also kept a large area of mix
in.

The second round of pcpn looks warmer overall thru the column and
went straight mix for many areas.  Again, the mid-week storm will
have some say in this, but probably in-so-much as low level cold air
gets locked in or not, but not with the better warm air intrusion
aloft that we are looking at with this round due to more backed flow
aloft.  Can`t emphasize this enough but continue to track updates on
this forecast closely as it could be a prolonged major winter storm
event for a good chunk of our region.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 525 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

VFR stratus to pass through the terminals late this evening with
mostly clear skies further to the northwest. Clipper like
disturbance will begin to move southeastward tomorrow. Increasing
clouds with ceilings gradually lowering throughout the day as top-
down saturation occurs. Have light snow with MVFR visbys/ceilings
beginning at KUIN at 21 UTC 25 February and KSTL at 04 UTC 26
February. For KCOU and KSUS/KCPS...it appears light snow will hold
off until after this valid TAF package.


Specifics for KSTL:

VFR stratus to pass through the late this evening with mostly
clear skies further to the northwest. Clipper like disturbance
will begin to move southeastward tomorrow. Increasing clouds with
ceilings gradually lowering throughout the day as top-down
saturation occurs. Have light snow with MVFR visbys/ceilings
beginning at 04 UTC 26 February.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Noon Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
     FOR Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Noon Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
     FOR Adams IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







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