Latest:
 AFDLSX |  AFDSGF |  AFDEAX |
  [top]

000
FXUS63 KLSX 010202
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
902 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 901 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Watch has been expanded into south central Illinois ahead of the
current line. There is some threat for severe weather over the
next hour across south central Illinois into southeast Missouri.
Because of this, the watch has also been extended until 10 pm.
Overall threat for severe weather is expected to gradually
diminish however in the next hour or two as instability will be
diminishing with the loss of daytime heating.

Britt

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

There remains the potential for a few severe thunderstorms to
develop late this afternoon and early this evening along and south
of a warm front that lies from west northwest to east southeast
across the area.  Clearing over western Missouri has allowed SBCAPEs
to climb into the 1000-2000+ J/kg range.  The RAP still suggests
this instability will move eastward into east central and southeast
MO as well as southern IL by late this afternoon and this evening.
Deep layer shear still support organized severe thunderstorms
capable of producing some severe sized hail and locally damaging
winds.  The experimental HRRR reflectivity suggests that these
storms will move out of the CWA by mid evening.  MOS guidance also
suggest there may be some patchy fog developing after midnight
across the area.

Britt

.LONG TERM...  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

(Sunday through Tuesday)

Upper low will move across Iowa on Sunday bringing a weak shortwave
trough across the area.  Will keep chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms going along and north of I-70 as it passes through.
Sunday night still looks mainly dry before both the GFS/ECMWF brings
another shortwave trough through the area on Monday. Will go with
just a slight chance of showers across much of the area with this
trough.  Northwesterly upper flow will set up over the area by
Tuesday with westerly surface winds, so will keep with a dry
forecast.

Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Sunday, and then even cooler
on Monday as cold air advects into the area under cloudy skies.
Temperatures should begin to moderate on Tuesday ahead of a cold
front as winds turn out of the west.

(Wednesday through Saturday)

Highly amplified upper flow will continue during the middle and end
of the next week as an omega block sets up over North America.  We
will stay under northwesterly flow aloft during most of this period
with the upper ridge of the omega block approaching from the west by
Saturday.  GFS and ECMWF are in decent agreement that a cold front
will move through the area on Wednesday with just a slight chance of
showers. Temperatures behind the front will be near normal with
850mb temperatures in the 5-10C range until they begin to warm up
by next Saturday.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 456 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Cold front extends from a surface low between COU and UIN
southwest through southwestern AR. Scattered thunderstorms have
developed just ahead of the surface low and trailing cold front
late this afternoon. Thunderstorms will move through UIN and the
St Louis metro area until about 02Z Sunday. Surface winds will
become wly in the St Louis metro area later tonight after passage
of the cold front, albeit quite weak. With light surface winds
patchy fog should develop late tonight, along with stratus also
possible at UIN. Scattered-broken diurnal cumulus clouds should
develop late Sunday morning and afternoon with widely scattered
showers possible in UIN during the afternoon ahead of an upper
level disturbance. Surface winds should be mainly w-nwly on Sunday
with a surface ridge building into the area from the Plains.

Specifics for KSTL: Thunderstorms can be expected in STL until
about 02Z this evening. Sly surface wind will veer around to a wly
direction later tonight, albeit quite weak. Light fog can be
expected late tonight and early Sunday morning. Scattered to
broken diurnal cumulus clouds will develop late Sunday morning
and afternoon with a w-nwly surface wind.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KSGF 302342
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
642 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...Mesoscale and Aviation Discussions...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Storms have finally developed early this evening across south-
central Missouri and portions of the eastern Ozarks. These storms
have initiated in a weakly convergent area along a surface cold
frontal boundary. The atmosphere in this area is characterized by
a moderately unstable atmosphere (MLCAPEs 1200-1700 J/kg) with
decent mid-level lapse rates. Effective bulk shears are weak,
however higher values (30-35 knots) have impinged on the storms
near the Arkansas border as a secondary jet streak approaches this
region. This feature has likely resulted in the more robust
convection across this area.

Heading through mid-evening, a severe threat will remain across
south-central Missouri as effective bulk shear continues to
increase and the front/storm outflows initiate additional
convection. Storms should then begin to weaken and push out of
the eastern Ozarks around mid-evening as instability decreases and
the front shifts east of the region.

On another note, we have added a mention of patchy fog to much of
southern and portions of central Missouri for later tonight. Dew
point depressions will become almost nil with winds become very
light. Area lakes will also see good potential for fog as lake
temps are in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Dryline currently moving across the forecast area this afternoon
is expected to spark storms that will affect mainly the eastern
Ozarks through this evening. A few strong to severe storms will be
possible through early evening as mentioned in the previous
mesoscale discussion.

Otherwise expect sky cover to continue clearing from west to
east as drier airmass behind the cold front spreads across the
area and main area of low pressure over the central Plains pushes
eastward toward the Ohio Valley. Temperatures are expected to drop
into the 40s over the western Ozarks and southeast Kansas tonight.

Still looks like we will have temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees
cooler on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Models have increased the coverage of precipitation associated
with passage of upper level trough axis on Monday/Monday night...but
continue to keep accumulations low. Instability is low to nil so
will keep thunder out of the forecast.

The rest of the work week looks dry as high pressure builds
across the region and upper ridge sets up across the
Rockies. There may be some increase in cloud cover Wednesday night
as a weak disturbance drops southeast around the back side of the Great
Lakes upper trough.

Storm activity may pick up late next weekend as an upper level
trough develops over the southwest U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Skies will clear off this evening with VFR expected for much of
the night. There is then increasing potential for patchy/shallow
fog late tonight and early Sunday morning as winds become light.
Visibilities in these situations are often highly variable. Any
fog should then dissipate by mid-morning on Sunday with VFR
returning.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Terry
LONG TERM...Terry
AVIATION...Schaumann



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KEAX 302327
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
627 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 338 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

Cool weather will stick around for a couple days with a small chance
at showers, but otherwise the work week is looking good.

Satellite imagery today shows the Nation dominated by a large trough
across the western 3/4 of the country. This is due in part to the
shortwave trough that pivoted north into the Central Plains, which
brought the rain yesterday and this morning, and another trough well
to our west who`s closed circulation is noted swinging south from
the Great Basin on its way into the Desert Southwest. Locally, the
surface reflection of the Central Plains trough started the morning
in northwest Missouri, but is now opening up and shifting east
across northern Missouri as a warm front lifts north. The larger
synoptic level trough dominating the Nation will persist for another
day or so before the Desert Southwest shortwave quickly ejects into
the Plains, helping the pattern evolve from one highly amplified
state to another highly amplified state, but the amplified pattern
later in the week will let warmer temperatures return.

Tonight through Sunday into Monday...temperatures will cool off
going into Sunday as a cool surface high presses into Kansas and
Missouri as the trough overhead slowly moves northeast; and with the
Desert Southwest trough expected to be swinging into the Plains
Sunday, expectations are that much of the moisture ladened air that
got shoved just to our north today --by the lifting warm front-- will
sink back south overnight providing another round of cool, cloudy and
potential wet weather. Continue to carry POPs in areas along and
north of the Missouri River as a result, but do not expect much
accumulation if an rain develops as the focus for upper level forcing
will be in areas to our south and east. Have also included a mention
of drizzle Sunday morning as it could be cool and misty. The cooler
temperatures --highs in the 50s and 60s-- will persist into Monday as
the secondary shortwave from the Desert Southwest moves across the
Central Plains, which will also keep a slight chance of rain going
Monday morning.

Tuesday on through the rest of the forecast...is looking rather
nice. Temperatures will rebound Tuesday back to around 70, with
highs in the 70s in the days to follow. This will be in part a
result of another large trough moving into the Great Basin during
the work week, keeping the storm track clear of the Central Plains
while allowing a large upper level ridge to develop overhead.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR conds will prevail thru tonight will sct-bkn cigs around 4kft.
Tomorrow morning a sfc trof will sink thru the terminals bringing
MVFR cigs btn 1-2kft. The NAM also suggests the potential for fog
reducing vsbys to 1-2SM however, it is the only model that does so.
Consequently, have kept fog formation out of the TAF at this time
but will continue to monitor. MVFR cigs will lift to 2-3kft around
17Z-19Z with the potential for further lifting to low-end VFR by the
end of the TAF pd. Winds will be out of the west blw 10kts thru
tomorrow morning before veering to the NW around 10kts tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...73




000
FXUS63 KEAX 302327
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
627 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 338 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

Cool weather will stick around for a couple days with a small chance
at showers, but otherwise the work week is looking good.

Satellite imagery today shows the Nation dominated by a large trough
across the western 3/4 of the country. This is due in part to the
shortwave trough that pivoted north into the Central Plains, which
brought the rain yesterday and this morning, and another trough well
to our west who`s closed circulation is noted swinging south from
the Great Basin on its way into the Desert Southwest. Locally, the
surface reflection of the Central Plains trough started the morning
in northwest Missouri, but is now opening up and shifting east
across northern Missouri as a warm front lifts north. The larger
synoptic level trough dominating the Nation will persist for another
day or so before the Desert Southwest shortwave quickly ejects into
the Plains, helping the pattern evolve from one highly amplified
state to another highly amplified state, but the amplified pattern
later in the week will let warmer temperatures return.

Tonight through Sunday into Monday...temperatures will cool off
going into Sunday as a cool surface high presses into Kansas and
Missouri as the trough overhead slowly moves northeast; and with the
Desert Southwest trough expected to be swinging into the Plains
Sunday, expectations are that much of the moisture ladened air that
got shoved just to our north today --by the lifting warm front-- will
sink back south overnight providing another round of cool, cloudy and
potential wet weather. Continue to carry POPs in areas along and
north of the Missouri River as a result, but do not expect much
accumulation if an rain develops as the focus for upper level forcing
will be in areas to our south and east. Have also included a mention
of drizzle Sunday morning as it could be cool and misty. The cooler
temperatures --highs in the 50s and 60s-- will persist into Monday as
the secondary shortwave from the Desert Southwest moves across the
Central Plains, which will also keep a slight chance of rain going
Monday morning.

Tuesday on through the rest of the forecast...is looking rather
nice. Temperatures will rebound Tuesday back to around 70, with
highs in the 70s in the days to follow. This will be in part a
result of another large trough moving into the Great Basin during
the work week, keeping the storm track clear of the Central Plains
while allowing a large upper level ridge to develop overhead.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR conds will prevail thru tonight will sct-bkn cigs around 4kft.
Tomorrow morning a sfc trof will sink thru the terminals bringing
MVFR cigs btn 1-2kft. The NAM also suggests the potential for fog
reducing vsbys to 1-2SM however, it is the only model that does so.
Consequently, have kept fog formation out of the TAF at this time
but will continue to monitor. MVFR cigs will lift to 2-3kft around
17Z-19Z with the potential for further lifting to low-end VFR by the
end of the TAF pd. Winds will be out of the west blw 10kts thru
tomorrow morning before veering to the NW around 10kts tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...73




000
FXUS63 KLSX 302240
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
540 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

There remains the potential for a few severe thunderstorms to
develop late this afternoon and early this evening along and south
of a warm front that lies from west northwest to east southeast
across the area.  Clearing over western Missouri has allowed SBCAPEs
to climb into the 1000-2000+ J/kg range.  The RAP still suggests
this instability will move eastward into east central and southeast
MO as well as southern IL by late this afternoon and this evening.
Deep layer shear still support organized severe thunderstorms
capable of producing some severe sized hail and locally damaging
winds.  The experimental HRRR reflectivity suggests that these
storms will move out of the CWA by mid evening.  MOS guidance also
suggest there may be some patchy fog developing after midnight
across the area.

Britt

.LONG TERM...  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

(Sunday through Tuesday)

Upper low will move across Iowa on Sunday bringing a weak shortwave
trough across the area.  Will keep chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms going along and north of I-70 as it passes through.
Sunday night still looks mainly dry before both the GFS/ECMWF brings
another shortwave trough through the area on Monday. Will go with
just a slight chance of showers across much of the area with this
trough.  Northwesterly upper flow will set up over the area by
Tuesday with westerly surface winds, so will keep with a dry
forecast.

Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Sunday, and then even cooler
on Monday as cold air advects into the area under cloudy skies.
Temperatures should begin to moderate on Tuesday ahead of a cold
front as winds turn out of the west.

(Wednesday through Saturday)

Highly amplified upper flow will continue during the middle and end
of the next week as an omega block sets up over North America.  We
will stay under northwesterly flow aloft during most of this period
with the upper ridge of the omega block approaching from the west by
Saturday.  GFS and ECMWF are in decent agreement that a cold front
will move through the area on Wednesday with just a slight chance of
showers. Temperatures behind the front will be near normal with
850mb temperatures in the 5-10C range until they begin to warm up
by next Saturday.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 456 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Cold front extends from a surface low between COU and UIN
southwest through southwestern AR. Scattered thunderstorms have
developed just ahead of the surface low and trailing cold front
late this afternoon. Thunderstorms will move through UIN and the
St Louis metro area until about 02Z Sunday. Surface winds will
become wly in the St Louis metro area later tonight after passage
of the cold front, albeit quite weak. With light surface winds
patchy fog should develop late tonight, along with stratus also
possible at UIN. Scattered-broken diurnal cumulus clouds should
develop late Sunday morning and afternoon with widely scattered
showers possible in UIN during the afternoon ahead of an upper
level disturbance. Surface winds should be mainly w-nwly on Sunday
with a surface ridge building into the area from the Plains.

Specifics for KSTL: Thunderstorms can be expected in STL until
about 02Z this evening. Sly surface wind will veer around to a wly
direction later tonight, albeit quite weak. Light fog can be
expected late tonight and early Sunday morning. Scattered to
broken diurnal cumulus clouds will develop late Sunday morning
and afternoon with a w-nwly surface wind.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KEAX 302038
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
338 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 338 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

Cool weather will stick around for a couple days with a small chance
at showers, but otherwise the work week is looking good.

Satellite imagery today shows the Nation dominated by a large trough
across the western 3/4 of the country. This is due in part to the
shortwave trough that pivoted north into the Central Plains, which
brought the rain yesterday and this morning, and another trough well
to our west who`s closed circulation is noted swinging south from
the Great Basin on its way into the Desert Southwest. Locally, the
surface reflection of the Central Plains trough started the morning
in northwest Missouri, but is now opening up and shifting east
across northern Missouri as a warm front lifts north. The larger
synoptic level trough dominating the Nation will persist for another
day or so before the Desert Southwest shortwave quickly ejects into
the Plains, helping the pattern evolve from one highly amplified
state to another highly amplified state, but the amplified pattern
later in the week will let warmer temperatures return.

Tonight through Sunday into Monday...temperatures will cool off
going into Sunday as a cool surface high presses into Kansas and
Missouri as the trough overhead slowly moves northeast; and with the
Desert Southwest trough expected to be swinging into the Plains
Sunday, expectations are that much of the moisture ladened air that
got shoved just to our north today --by the lifting warm front-- will
sink back south overnight providing another round of cool, cloudy and
potential wet weather. Continue to carry POPs in areas along and
north of the Missouri River as a result, but do not expect much
accumulation if an rain develops as the focus for upper level forcing
will be in areas to our south and east. Have also included a mention
of drizzle Sunday morning as it could be cool and misty. The cooler
temperatures --highs in the 50s and 60s-- will persist into Monday as
the secondary shortwave from the Desert Southwest moves across the
Central Plains, which will also keep a slight chance of rain going
Monday morning.

Tuesday on through the rest of the forecast...is looking rather
nice. Temperatures will rebound Tuesday back to around 70, with
highs in the 70s in the days to follow. This will be in part a
result of another large trough moving into the Great Basin during
the work week, keeping the storm track clear of the Central Plains
while allowing a large upper level ridge to develop overhead.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

A combination of VFR and MVFR CIGs prevail across western Missouri
this afternoon thanks to the cloud cover and moisture wrapping around
a surface trough languishing over northwest Missouri. CIGs might
bounce around some this afternoon but should lift into the VFR range
by early this evening for the sites in and around KC, though KSTJ
will likely be MVFR through the day and overnight hours. Late
tonight MVFR clouds should wrap back to the south as winds veer
around to the northwest. Will need to watch for IFR conditions to
develop early Sunday morning, but confidence is a bit low at this
time to push CIGs and VIS that far down at this time.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter




000
FXUS63 KLSX 302015
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
315 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

There remains the potential for a few severe thunderstorms to
develop late this afternoon and early this evening along and south
of a warm front that lies from west northwest to east southeast
across the area.  Clearing over western Missouri has allowed SBCAPEs
to climb into the 1000-2000+ J/kg range.  The RAP still suggests
this instability will move eastward into east central and southeast
MO as well as southern IL by late this afternoon and this evening.
Deep layer shear still support organized severe thunderstorms
capable of producing some severe sized hail and locally damaging
winds.  The experimental HRRR reflectivity suggests that these
storms will move out of the CWA by mid evening.  MOS guidance also
suggest there may be some patchy fog developing after midnight
across the area.

Britt

.LONG TERM...  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

(Sunday through Tuesday)

Upper low will move across Iowa on Sunday bringing a weak shortwave
trough across the area.  Will keep chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms going along and north of I-70 as it passes through.
Sunday night still looks mainly dry before both the GFS/ECMWF brings
another shortwave trough through the area on Monday. Will go with
just a slight chance of showers across much of the area with this
trough.  Northwesterly upper flow will set up over the area by
Tuesday with westerly surface winds, so will keep with a dry
forecast.

Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Sunday, and then even cooler
on Monday as cold air advects into the area under cloudy skies.
Temperatures should begin to moderate on Tuesday ahead of a cold
front as winds turn out of the west.

(Wednesday through Saturday)

Highly amplified upper flow will continue during the middle and end
of the next week as an omega block sets up over North America.  We
will stay under northwesterly flow aloft during most of this period
with the upper ridge of the omega block approaching from the west by
Saturday.  GFS and ECMWF are in decent agreement that a cold front
will move through the area on Wednesday with just a slight chance of
showers. Temperatures behind the front will be near normal with
850mb temperatures in the 5-10C range until they behind to warm up
by next Saturday.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

A warm front extending from just north of KCOU to just south of
the St. Louis region into southern IL will gradually advance
northward this afternoon. Flight conditions should improve as this
front moves north of the TAF sites. This front passage may not
occur at KUIN and at that terminal I still tried to be somewhat
optimistic with at least some improvement this afternoon before
IFR conditions settle in again at KUIN overnight and last into
Sunday morning. Scattered thunderstorms should also develop this
afternoon along/ahead of the cold front between 19-21z between
KCOU-KSTL. I have a tempo group in the St. Louis area TAFS to
account for this threat. Shower and thunderstorm threat will
largely remain displaced from the other TAF sites.

Specifics for KSTL:

Flight conditions should improve this afternoon as a warm front
moves north of KSTL. Scattered thunderstorms will also develop
this afternoon along/ahead of the cold front between 19-21z
between KCOU-KSTL. I have a tempo group in the TAF to account for
this threat between 22-01z. Potential for MVFR flight conditions
overnight into Sunday morning due to fog as surface winds become
light.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KSGF 302002
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
302 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Dryline currently moving across the forecast area this afternoon
is expected to spark storms that will affect mainly the eastern
Ozarks through this evening. A few strong to severe storms will be
possible through early evening as mentioned in the previous
mesoscale discussion.

Otherwise expect sky cover to continue clearing from west to
east as drier airmass behind the cold front spreads across the
area and main area of low pressure over the central Plains pushes
eastward toward the Ohio Valley. Temperatures are expected to drop
into the 40s over the western Ozarks and southeast Kansas tonight.

Still looks like we will have temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees
cooler on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Models have increased the coverage of precipitation associated
with passage of upper level trough axis on Monday/Monday night...but
continue to keep accumulations low. Instability is low to nil so
will keep thunder out of the forecast.

The rest of the work week looks dry as high pressure builds
across the region and upper ridge sets up across the
Rockies. There may be some increase in cloud cover Wednesday night
as a weak disturbance drops southeast around the back side of the Great
Lakes upper trough.

Storm activity may pick up late next weekend as an upper level
trough develops over the southwest U.S.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

MVFR ceilings will persist for a few more hours at SGF and JLN
before the frontal boundary moves through and things begin to mix out.
Kept vicinity thunder at BBG this afternoon as storms should fire
close to there but will likely be just to the east of the site.
VFR conditions will prevail from this evening through Sunday.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Terry
LONG TERM...Terry
AVIATION...Burchfield




000
FXUS63 KSGF 301836
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
121 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

The National Weather Service in Springfield is closely monitoring
the eastern Ozarks for organized convective development over the
next few hours.

One minute rapid scan visible satellite shows a dry line slowly
approaching Springfield down to Roaring River State Park at 1820Z.
This feature is moving two to three hours slower than hi-res
models were suggesting this morning.

Meanwhile, a 17Z special RAOB was performed, measuring 1,044 j/kg
of cape from a mixed layer parcel, within a modestly sheared
airmass. The 0-6km bulk shear values were ranging from 25 to 40
knots, which should persist through the afternoon and evening.

Satellite also showed gradual clearing east of the dry line across
Taney, Ozark, Douglas, Wright, and Texas counties. As temperatures
continue to warm into the middle and possibly upper 70s this
afternoon, sufficient instability will evolve for development of
severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging
wind gusts. Large hail should be more common than damaging winds.

The south southwest surface wind component will mitigate the
potential for tornadoes, but not completely. With low level cape
present within the eastern Ozarks airmass, we have continued a
limited mention of tornadoes. Again, the risk for tornadoes is low
at this time, but not zero.

Stay tuned to future watches or warning due to severe thunderstorm
development across southern Missouri.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Widespread rainfall across the area gave a good soaking to most
locations overnight. Early this morning the back edge of the
precipitation was generally along highway 65 and should continue to
make steady progress eastward early this morning. Short term models
indicate a lull in the precipitation for much of the morning before
more convection forms later today.

This afternoon the primary upper low will slowly migrate eastward
through southern Nebraska, while a weak surface low lifts northeast,
pushing a cold front into the Missouri Ozarks, roughly to near
Highway 65 around 18Z. Models continue to show ample 0-6km bulk
shear and sufficient instability in the warm sector for strong to
severe thunderstorms. There still remains some uncertainty
regarding the severe threat. The first being a punch of drier air
in the mid levels that begins to push into the region which may
limit updraft potential. The second is the affect that morning
clouds and possible remaining precipitation will have on
instabilities. None the less, severe threat will last through
about mid evening across the eastern Ozarks before activity pushes
eastward with quiet weather expected for the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

The weakening upper low moves away from the area Sunday as upper
flow then transitions to a northwesterly flow for Monday through
Friday. A shortwave trough does drop southward across the region
Monday which will bring a slight chance for showers to southeast
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks and somewhat cooler temperatures as
highs will only be in the lower to middle 60s.

A slow warming trend, along with quiet and dry weather is then
expected for Tuesday through Friday as a ridge of high pressure
builds across the western Conus and begins to nudge eastward with
time. Temperatures will warm back into the middle 70s by the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

MVFR ceilings will persist for a few more hours at SGF and JLN
before the frontal boundary moves through and things begin to mix out.
Kept vicinity thunder at BBG this afternoon as storms should fire
close to there but will likely be just to the east of the site.
VFR conditions will prevail from this evening through Sunday.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Cramer
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Burchfield




000
FXUS63 KLSX 301829
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
129 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Surface low was located in northwest MO at 18z with a southward
trailing cold front and a warm front extending east-southeast
just north of Columbia and into southern IL. The low is expected
to weaken and move eastward this afternoon with the cold front
advancing and warm front moving slowly northward. The warm sector
should continue to destabilize from west to east ahead of the
advancing front as steeper lapse rates/cold air aloft overspread
the warm sector where dimishing cloud cover will lead to increased
warming. SBCAPE on the order of 1000-1800 j/kg is expected to
evolve supporting development of scattered thunderstorms
along/ahead of the cold front between 19-21z between KCOU-KSTL.
CAPE and deep layer shear should be sufficient for organized
storms, some possibly severe with a primary hail threat into the
evening.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

It will be an active day today. Current batch of showers and a few
thunderstorms to continue lifting northeast, slowly exiting from
southwest to northeast by midday. Then another piece of energy to
slide east across northern Missouri this afternoon and evening
helping to lift surface low off to the northeast. Models in pretty
good agreement, developing a line of convection just ahead of cold
front associated with surface low. If atmosphere is able to recover
from morning convection, decent CAPES between 1000-2000 J/kg, lapse
rates, and shear, could support some supercell development. SPC has
kept areas along and south of I-70 in a slight risk for severe
weather with the main threats being large hail, damaging winds and
possibly a few tornadoes.

As for high temperatures, it will be similar to yesterday with a
wide gradient from around 60 far north to the mid 70s south.

Byrd

.LONG TERM...  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

(Tonight)

Storms to lift northeast out of forecast area by 03z Sunday, with
just some lingering showers slowly tapering off. Lows will be in the
upper 40s to upper 50s.

(Sunday through Friday)

Closed upper level low over Nebraska to open up and lift out of
region on Sunday. Will see showers and a few thunderstorms across
the area on back side of system before precipitation comes to an end
Sunday evening.

Surface ridge to build in with cooler temps for beginning of work
week. Highs on Monday will only be in the low to mid 60s, a bit
below normal for this time of year.

Weak surface ridging to remain over region through rest of forecast
period. Some models wanting to have upper level shortwaves under cut
the ridge with some low chances of precipitation towards end of work
week. For now kept this period dry with near normal temps in the mid
60s to mid 70s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

A warm front extending from just north of KCOU to just south of
the St. Louis region into southern IL will gradually advance
northward this afternoon. Flight conditions should improve as this
front moves north of the TAF sites. This front passage may not
occur at KUIN and at that terminal I still tried to be somewhat
optomistic with at least some improvement this afternoon before
IFR conditions settle in again at KUIN overnight and last into
Sunday morning. Scattered thunderstorms should also develop this
afternoon along/ahead of the cold front between 19-21z between
KCOU-KSTL. I have a tempo group in the St. Louis area TAFS to
account for this threat. Shower and thunderstorm threat will
largely remain displaced from the other TAF sites.

Specifics for KSTL:

Flight conditions should improve this afternoon as a warm front
moves north of KSTL. Scattered thunderstorms will also develop
this afternoon along/ahead of the cold front between 19-21z
between KCOU-KSTL. I have a tempo group in the TAF to account for
this threat between 22-01z. Potential for MVFR flight conditions
overnight into Sunday morning due to fog as surface winds become
light.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 301829
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
129 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Surface low was located in northwest MO at 18z with a southward
trailing cold front and a warm front extending east-southeast
just north of Columbia and into southern IL. The low is expected
to weaken and move eastward this afternoon with the cold front
advancing and warm front moving slowly northward. The warm sector
should continue to destabilize from west to east ahead of the
advancing front as steeper lapse rates/cold air aloft overspread
the warm sector where dimishing cloud cover will lead to increased
warming. SBCAPE on the order of 1000-1800 j/kg is expected to
evolve supporting development of scattered thunderstorms
along/ahead of the cold front between 19-21z between KCOU-KSTL.
CAPE and deep layer shear should be sufficient for organized
storms, some possibly severe with a primary hail threat into the
evening.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

It will be an active day today. Current batch of showers and a few
thunderstorms to continue lifting northeast, slowly exiting from
southwest to northeast by midday. Then another piece of energy to
slide east across northern Missouri this afternoon and evening
helping to lift surface low off to the northeast. Models in pretty
good agreement, developing a line of convection just ahead of cold
front associated with surface low. If atmosphere is able to recover
from morning convection, decent CAPES between 1000-2000 J/kg, lapse
rates, and shear, could support some supercell development. SPC has
kept areas along and south of I-70 in a slight risk for severe
weather with the main threats being large hail, damaging winds and
possibly a few tornadoes.

As for high temperatures, it will be similar to yesterday with a
wide gradient from around 60 far north to the mid 70s south.

Byrd

.LONG TERM...  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

(Tonight)

Storms to lift northeast out of forecast area by 03z Sunday, with
just some lingering showers slowly tapering off. Lows will be in the
upper 40s to upper 50s.

(Sunday through Friday)

Closed upper level low over Nebraska to open up and lift out of
region on Sunday. Will see showers and a few thunderstorms across
the area on back side of system before precipitation comes to an end
Sunday evening.

Surface ridge to build in with cooler temps for beginning of work
week. Highs on Monday will only be in the low to mid 60s, a bit
below normal for this time of year.

Weak surface ridging to remain over region through rest of forecast
period. Some models wanting to have upper level shortwaves under cut
the ridge with some low chances of precipitation towards end of work
week. For now kept this period dry with near normal temps in the mid
60s to mid 70s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

A warm front extending from just north of KCOU to just south of
the St. Louis region into southern IL will gradually advance
northward this afternoon. Flight conditions should improve as this
front moves north of the TAF sites. This front passage may not
occur at KUIN and at that terminal I still tried to be somewhat
optomistic with at least some improvement this afternoon before
IFR conditions settle in again at KUIN overnight and last into
Sunday morning. Scattered thunderstorms should also develop this
afternoon along/ahead of the cold front between 19-21z between
KCOU-KSTL. I have a tempo group in the St. Louis area TAFS to
account for this threat. Shower and thunderstorm threat will
largely remain displaced from the other TAF sites.

Specifics for KSTL:

Flight conditions should improve this afternoon as a warm front
moves north of KSTL. Scattered thunderstorms will also develop
this afternoon along/ahead of the cold front between 19-21z
between KCOU-KSTL. I have a tempo group in the TAF to account for
this threat between 22-01z. Potential for MVFR flight conditions
overnight into Sunday morning due to fog as surface winds become
light.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KSGF 301821
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
121 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

The National Weather Service in Springfield is closely monitoring
the eastern Ozarks for organized convective development over the
next few hours.

One minute rapid scan visible satellite shows a dry line slowly
approaching Springfield down to Roaring River State Park at 1820Z.
This feature is moving two to three hours slower than hi-res
models were suggesting this morning.

Meanwhile, a 17Z special RAOB was performed, measuring 1,044 j/kg
of cape from a mixed layer parcel, within a modestly sheared
airmass. The 0-6km bulk shear values were ranging from 25 to 40
knots, which should persist through the afternoon and evening.

Satellite also showed gradual clearing east of the dry line across
Taney, Ozarks, Douglas, Wright, and Texas counties. As
temperatures continue to warm into the middle and possibly upper
70s this afternoon, sufficient instability will evolve for
development of severe thunderstorms capable of producing large
hail and damaging wind gusts. Large hail should be more common
than damaging winds.

The south southwest surface wind component will mitigate the
potential for tornadoes, but not completely. With low level cape
present within the eastern Ozarks airmass, we have continued a
limited mention of tornadoes. Again, this risk for tornadoes is
low at this time, but not zero.

Stay tuned to future watches or warning due to severe thunderstorm
development across southern Missouri.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Widespread rainfall across the area gave a good soaking to most
locations overnight. Early this morning the back edge of the
precipitation was generally along highway 65 and should continue to
make steady progress eastward early this morning. Short term models
indicate a lull in the precipitation for much of the morning before
more convection forms later today.

This afternoon the primary upper low will slowly migrate eastward
through southern Nebraska, while a weak surface low lifts northeast,
pushing a cold front into the Missouri Ozarks, roughly to near
Highway 65 around 18Z. Models continue to show ample 0-6km bulk
shear and sufficient instability in the warm sector for strong to
severe thunderstorms. There still remains some uncertainty
regarding the severe threat. The first being a punch of drier air
in the mid levels that begins to push into the region which may
limit updraft potential. The second is the affect that morning
clouds and possible remaining precipitation will have on
instabilities. None the less, severe threat will last through
about mid evening across the eastern Ozarks before activity pushes
eastward with quiet weather expected for the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

The weakening upper low moves away from the area Sunday as upper
flow then transitions to a northwesterly flow for Monday through
Friday. A shortwave trough does drop southward across the region
Monday which will bring a slight chance for showers to southeast
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks and somewhat cooler temperatures as
highs will only be in the lower to middle 60s.

A slow warming trend, along with quiet and dry weather is then
expected for Tuesday through Friday as a ridge of high pressure
builds across the western Conus and begins to nudge eastward with
time. Temperatures will warm back into the middle 70s by the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

MVFR ceilings will persist for a few more hours at SGF and JLN
before the frontal boundary moves through and things begin to mix out.
Kept vicinity thunder at BBG this afternoon as storms should fire
close to there but will likely be just to the east of the site.
VFR conditions will prevail from this evening through Sunday.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Cramer
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Burchfield




000
FXUS63 KSGF 301821
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
121 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

The National Weather Service in Springfield is closely monitoring
the eastern Ozarks for organized convective development over the
next few hours.

One minute rapid scan visible satellite shows a dry line slowly
approaching Springfield down to Roaring River State Park at 1820Z.
This feature is moving two to three hours slower than hi-res
models were suggesting this morning.

Meanwhile, a 17Z special RAOB was performed, measuring 1,044 j/kg
of cape from a mixed layer parcel, within a modestly sheared
airmass. The 0-6km bulk shear values were ranging from 25 to 40
knots, which should persist through the afternoon and evening.

Satellite also showed gradual clearing east of the dry line across
Taney, Ozarks, Douglas, Wright, and Texas counties. As
temperatures continue to warm into the middle and possibly upper
70s this afternoon, sufficient instability will evolve for
development of severe thunderstorms capable of producing large
hail and damaging wind gusts. Large hail should be more common
than damaging winds.

The south southwest surface wind component will mitigate the
potential for tornadoes, but not completely. With low level cape
present within the eastern Ozarks airmass, we have continued a
limited mention of tornadoes. Again, this risk for tornadoes is
low at this time, but not zero.

Stay tuned to future watches or warning due to severe thunderstorm
development across southern Missouri.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Widespread rainfall across the area gave a good soaking to most
locations overnight. Early this morning the back edge of the
precipitation was generally along highway 65 and should continue to
make steady progress eastward early this morning. Short term models
indicate a lull in the precipitation for much of the morning before
more convection forms later today.

This afternoon the primary upper low will slowly migrate eastward
through southern Nebraska, while a weak surface low lifts northeast,
pushing a cold front into the Missouri Ozarks, roughly to near
Highway 65 around 18Z. Models continue to show ample 0-6km bulk
shear and sufficient instability in the warm sector for strong to
severe thunderstorms. There still remains some uncertainty
regarding the severe threat. The first being a punch of drier air
in the mid levels that begins to push into the region which may
limit updraft potential. The second is the affect that morning
clouds and possible remaining precipitation will have on
instabilities. None the less, severe threat will last through
about mid evening across the eastern Ozarks before activity pushes
eastward with quiet weather expected for the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

The weakening upper low moves away from the area Sunday as upper
flow then transitions to a northwesterly flow for Monday through
Friday. A shortwave trough does drop southward across the region
Monday which will bring a slight chance for showers to southeast
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks and somewhat cooler temperatures as
highs will only be in the lower to middle 60s.

A slow warming trend, along with quiet and dry weather is then
expected for Tuesday through Friday as a ridge of high pressure
builds across the western Conus and begins to nudge eastward with
time. Temperatures will warm back into the middle 70s by the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

MVFR ceilings will persist for a few more hours at SGF and JLN
before the frontal boundary moves through and things begin to mix out.
Kept vicinity thunder at BBG this afternoon as storms should fire
close to there but will likely be just to the east of the site.
VFR conditions will prevail from this evening through Sunday.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Cramer
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Burchfield




000
FXUS63 KSGF 301759
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1259 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Widespread rainfall across the area gave a good soaking to most
locations overnight. Early this morning the back edge of the
precipitation was generally along highway 65 and should continue to
make steady progress eastward early this morning. Short term models
indicate a lull in the precipitation for much of the morning before
more convection forms later today.

This afternoon the primary upper low will slowly migrate eastward
through southern Nebraska, while a weak surface low lifts northeast,
pushing a cold front into the Missouri Ozarks, roughly to near
Highway 65 around 18Z. Models continue to show ample 0-6km bulk
shear and sufficient instability in the warm sector for strong to
severe thunderstorms. There still remains some uncertainty
regarding the severe threat. The first being a punch of drier air
in the mid levels that begins to push into the region which may
limit updraft potential. The second is the affect that morning
clouds and possible remaining precipitation will have on
instabilities. None the less, severe threat will last through
about mid evening across the eastern Ozarks before activity pushes
eastward with quiet weather expected for the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

The weakening upper low moves away from the area Sunday as upper
flow then transitions to a northwesterly flow for Monday through
Friday. A shortwave trough does drop southward across the region
Monday which will bring a slight chance for showers to southeast
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks and somewhat cooler temperatures as
highs will only be in the lower to middle 60s.

A slow warming trend, along with quiet and dry weather is then
expected for Tuesday through Friday as a ridge of high pressure
builds across the western Conus and begins to nudge eastward with
time. Temperatures will warm back into the middle 70s by the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

MVFR ceilings will persist for a few more hours at SGF and JLN
before the frontal boundary moves through and things begin to mix out.
Kept vicnity thunder at BBG this afternoon as storms should fire
close to there but will likely be just to the east of the site.
VFR conditions will prevail from this evening through Sunday.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Burchfield




000
FXUS63 KEAX 301745
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1245 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 330 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

Large-scale upper low spinning across the Central High Plains this
morning...with feature continuing to take on a more and more
negative tilt as system begins the occlusion process. Regional radars
showing main push of precip lifting north into southern Iowa this
morning...as main dryslot which has been advertised in recent model
runs begins its trek north from the Southern Plains. Heading into
today...main sfc low now seen over southeastern Kansas/northeastern
Oklahoma will slowly lift north along the I-49 corridor before
slowing down by afternoon as system continues occluding over north-
central Missouri. As this occurs...expect main occluded boundary to
begin lifting north towards the area with most models suggesting this
feature should make it as far north as the Route 36 corridor by this
afternoon. With this boundary expected to set up across our
area...expect a decent thermal gradient across the region with low
70s possible south of the Route 50 corridor while upper 50s/low 60s
dominate up towards the IA state line. In terms on shwr/storm
activity...prevailing thought heading out of the gate this morning
is that most of the region will see long periods of dry conditions
as forcing for assent from the main upper low remains west and
main southern stream speed max remains well south. Despite
this...cannot rule out some isolated shwrs/storms later today
especially across the far eastern zones south of the front which
should have a better opportunity to destabilize (MLCAPE 1000-1500
J/kg or so) this afternoon. As was the case with yesterday/s model
runs...best wind fields will remain well away from the area...and
widespread severe is not expected. Cannot rule out a few isolated
hailers east of Route 65 but overall thought is much of this
activity if it develops...should remain below severe limits.

Lgt shwr activity to remain across northern portions of the fcst area
tonight and again through portions of Sunday morning as inverted
trough/upper low combine remain over the area. By these times
however...any instability will largely be absent which should support
nothing more than a few passing rain shwrs from time to time.
Noticeably cooler tomorrow as cold air advection starts on the
backside of departing sfc low. Look for highs only to climb into the
upper 50s to lower 60s across much of the area as winds change around
to the north by afternoon.

Beyond this...an extended period of mostly dry weather can be
expected through much of next week. Cannot rule out a few passing
shwrs Monday afternoon as a weak wave passes through...but dry low-
level conditions could result in mostly virga. Next chance for lgt
rain shwrs may arrive Wed afternoon/evening as the next cold front
passes through the area...but latest runs show this passing with
little impact. And looking farther into the extended suggests a nice
warning trend by late week into next weekend as strong ridging builds
east from the Rockies.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

A combination of VFR and MVFR CIGs prevail across western Missouri
this afternoon thanks to the cloud cover and moisture wrapping around
a surface trough languishing over northwest Missouri. CIGs might
bounce around some this afternoon but should lift into the VFR range
by early this evening for the sites in and around KC, though KSTJ
will likely be MVFR through the day and overnight hours. Late
tonight MVFR clouds should wrap back to the south as winds veer
around to the northwest. Will need to watch for IFR conditions to
develop early Sunday morning, but confidence is a bit low at this
time to push CIGs and VIS that far down at this time.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...Cutter




000
FXUS63 KLSX 301216
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
716 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

It will be an active day today. Current batch of showers and a few
thunderstorms to continue lifting northeast, slowly exiting from
southwest to northeast by midday. Then another piece of energy to
slide east across northern Missouri this afternoon and evening
helping to lift surface low off to the northeast. Models in pretty
good agreement, developing a line of convection just ahead of cold
front associated with surface low. If atmosphere is able to recover
from morning convection, decent CAPES between 1000-2000 J/kg, lapse
rates, and shear, could support some supercell development. SPC has
kept areas along and south of I-70 in a slight risk for severe
weather with the main threats being large hail, damaging winds and
possibly a few tornadoes.

As for high temperatures, it will be similar to yesterday with a
wide gradient from around 60 far north to the mid 70s south.

Byrd

.LONG TERM...  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

(Tonight)

Storms to lift northeast out of forecast area by 03z Sunday, with
just some lingering showers slowly tapering off. Lows will be in the
upper 40s to upper 50s.

(Sunday through Friday)

Closed upper level low over Nebraska to open up and lift out of
region on Sunday. Will see showers and a few thunderstorms across
the area on back side of system before precipitation comes to an end
Sunday evening.

Surface ridge to build in with cooler temps for beginning of work
week. Highs on Monday will only be in the low to mid 60s, a bit
below normal for this time of year.

Weak surface ridging to remain over region through rest of forecast
period. Some models wanting to have upper level shortwaves under cut
the ridge with some low chances of precipitation towards end of work
week. For now kept this period dry with near normal temps in the mid
60s to mid 70s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Widespread area of precip assoc with a warm fnt is on schedule to
clear the remaining terminals over the hr or two. CIGs lowered to
IFR in the rain overnight but should slowly improve this mrng
along and south of I70 as a warm front lifts north. The warm front
is fcst to lift into nthrn MO and cntrl IL by late aftn/early
evng. This puts KUIN right on the edge of IFR conditions N of the
bndry and VFR to the S. I am not confident with KUIN/s fcst...CIG
or wind. There will be a break in the precip for the bulk of the
day after the mrng precip exits NE before another round of
convection dvlps along a cold front late this aftn/early this evng
across ern MO and SW IL but should only last an hr or so at any
given location. After that activity passes E...winds should
become wrly behind the cold front.

Specifics for KSTL:

Precip should be out of the terminal by 13Z with slowly improving
CIGs thru the mrng. Winds will gradually become Sthrly by aftn as
a warm front lifts thru which will allow CIGs to continue to
improve to VFR by aftn. Another round of scttrd convection is fcst
to dvlp drng the late aftn/early evng across ern MO. Coverage of
this activity may limit any impacts to the terminal...though even
a direct hit by a TSTM should last less than an hour. After this
passes...expect VFR conditions for the rest of the prd.

2%

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis     73  57  69  49 /  90  50  30  10
Quincy          63  50  59  45 /  90  40  50  10
Columbia        72  50  63  47 /  60  30  30  10
Jefferson City  75  51  66  48 /  50  30  20  10
Salem           70  59  70  50 /  90  50  40  10
Farmington      73  54  72  48 /  90  50  20  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 301216
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
716 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

It will be an active day today. Current batch of showers and a few
thunderstorms to continue lifting northeast, slowly exiting from
southwest to northeast by midday. Then another piece of energy to
slide east across northern Missouri this afternoon and evening
helping to lift surface low off to the northeast. Models in pretty
good agreement, developing a line of convection just ahead of cold
front associated with surface low. If atmosphere is able to recover
from morning convection, decent CAPES between 1000-2000 J/kg, lapse
rates, and shear, could support some supercell development. SPC has
kept areas along and south of I-70 in a slight risk for severe
weather with the main threats being large hail, damaging winds and
possibly a few tornadoes.

As for high temperatures, it will be similar to yesterday with a
wide gradient from around 60 far north to the mid 70s south.

Byrd

.LONG TERM...  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

(Tonight)

Storms to lift northeast out of forecast area by 03z Sunday, with
just some lingering showers slowly tapering off. Lows will be in the
upper 40s to upper 50s.

(Sunday through Friday)

Closed upper level low over Nebraska to open up and lift out of
region on Sunday. Will see showers and a few thunderstorms across
the area on back side of system before precipitation comes to an end
Sunday evening.

Surface ridge to build in with cooler temps for beginning of work
week. Highs on Monday will only be in the low to mid 60s, a bit
below normal for this time of year.

Weak surface ridging to remain over region through rest of forecast
period. Some models wanting to have upper level shortwaves under cut
the ridge with some low chances of precipitation towards end of work
week. For now kept this period dry with near normal temps in the mid
60s to mid 70s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Widespread area of precip assoc with a warm fnt is on schedule to
clear the remaining terminals over the hr or two. CIGs lowered to
IFR in the rain overnight but should slowly improve this mrng
along and south of I70 as a warm front lifts north. The warm front
is fcst to lift into nthrn MO and cntrl IL by late aftn/early
evng. This puts KUIN right on the edge of IFR conditions N of the
bndry and VFR to the S. I am not confident with KUIN/s fcst...CIG
or wind. There will be a break in the precip for the bulk of the
day after the mrng precip exits NE before another round of
convection dvlps along a cold front late this aftn/early this evng
across ern MO and SW IL but should only last an hr or so at any
given location. After that activity passes E...winds should
become wrly behind the cold front.

Specifics for KSTL:

Precip should be out of the terminal by 13Z with slowly improving
CIGs thru the mrng. Winds will gradually become Sthrly by aftn as
a warm front lifts thru which will allow CIGs to continue to
improve to VFR by aftn. Another round of scttrd convection is fcst
to dvlp drng the late aftn/early evng across ern MO. Coverage of
this activity may limit any impacts to the terminal...though even
a direct hit by a TSTM should last less than an hour. After this
passes...expect VFR conditions for the rest of the prd.

2%

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis     73  57  69  49 /  90  50  30  10
Quincy          63  50  59  45 /  90  40  50  10
Columbia        72  50  63  47 /  60  30  30  10
Jefferson City  75  51  66  48 /  50  30  20  10
Salem           70  59  70  50 /  90  50  40  10
Farmington      73  54  72  48 /  90  50  20  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KSGF 301151
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
651 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Widespread rainfall across the area gave a good soaking to most
locations overnight. Early this morning the back edge of the
precipitation was generally along highway 65 and should continue to
make steady progress eastward early this morning. Short term models
indicate a lull in the precipitation for much of the morning before
more convection forms later today.

This afternoon the primary upper low will slowly migrate eastward
through southern Nebraska, while a weak surface low lifts northeast,
pushing a cold front into the Missouri Ozarks, roughly to near
Highway 65 around 18Z. Models continue to show ample 0-6km bulk
shear and sufficient instability in the warm sector for strong to
severe thunderstorms. There still remains some uncertainty
regarding the severe threat. The first being a punch of drier air
in the mid levels that begins to push into the region which may
limit updraft potential. The second is the affect that morning
clouds and possible remaining precipitation will have on
instabilities. None the less, severe threat will last through
about mid evening across the eastern Ozarks before activity pushes
eastward with quiet weather expected for the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

The weakening upper low moves away from the area Sunday as upper
flow then transitions to a northwesterly flow for Monday through
Friday. A shortwave trough does drop southward across the region
Monday which will bring a slight chance for showers to southeast
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks and somewhat cooler temperatures as
highs will only be in the lower to middle 60s.

A slow warming trend, along with quiet and dry weather is then
expected for Tuesday through Friday as a ridge of high pressure
builds across the western Conus and begins to nudge eastward with
time. Temperatures will warm back into the middle 70s by the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Low pressure centered over eastern
Kansas will move slowly northeast into northeast MO/western IL by
the end of the taf period. A trailing sfc trough/front will move
through our area gradually veering winds to the west. IFR ceilings
to start will lift and scatter out over the next few hours.
Isolated-scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the
front after 18z, but most guidance keeps this activity east of the
taf sites.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...DSA




000
FXUS63 KSGF 301151
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
651 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Widespread rainfall across the area gave a good soaking to most
locations overnight. Early this morning the back edge of the
precipitation was generally along highway 65 and should continue to
make steady progress eastward early this morning. Short term models
indicate a lull in the precipitation for much of the morning before
more convection forms later today.

This afternoon the primary upper low will slowly migrate eastward
through southern Nebraska, while a weak surface low lifts northeast,
pushing a cold front into the Missouri Ozarks, roughly to near
Highway 65 around 18Z. Models continue to show ample 0-6km bulk
shear and sufficient instability in the warm sector for strong to
severe thunderstorms. There still remains some uncertainty
regarding the severe threat. The first being a punch of drier air
in the mid levels that begins to push into the region which may
limit updraft potential. The second is the affect that morning
clouds and possible remaining precipitation will have on
instabilities. None the less, severe threat will last through
about mid evening across the eastern Ozarks before activity pushes
eastward with quiet weather expected for the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

The weakening upper low moves away from the area Sunday as upper
flow then transitions to a northwesterly flow for Monday through
Friday. A shortwave trough does drop southward across the region
Monday which will bring a slight chance for showers to southeast
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks and somewhat cooler temperatures as
highs will only be in the lower to middle 60s.

A slow warming trend, along with quiet and dry weather is then
expected for Tuesday through Friday as a ridge of high pressure
builds across the western Conus and begins to nudge eastward with
time. Temperatures will warm back into the middle 70s by the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Low pressure centered over eastern
Kansas will move slowly northeast into northeast MO/western IL by
the end of the taf period. A trailing sfc trough/front will move
through our area gradually veering winds to the west. IFR ceilings
to start will lift and scatter out over the next few hours.
Isolated-scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the
front after 18z, but most guidance keeps this activity east of the
taf sites.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...DSA




000
FXUS63 KEAX 301132
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
632 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 330 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

Large-scale upper low spinning across the Central High Plains this
morning...with feature continuing to take on a more and more
negative tilt as system begins the occlusion process. Regional radars
showing main push of precip lifting north into southern Iowa this
morning...as main dryslot which has been advertised in recent model
runs begins its trek north from the Southern Plains. Heading into
today...main sfc low now seen over southeastern Kansas/northeastern
Oklahoma will slowly lift north along the I-49 corridor before
slowing down by afternoon as system continues occluding over north-
central Missouri. As this occurs...expect main occluded boundary to
begin lifting north towards the area with most models suggesting this
feature should make it as far north as the Route 36 corridor by this
afternoon. With this boundary expected to set up across our
area...expect a decent thermal gradient across the region with low
70s possible south of the Route 50 corridor while upper 50s/low 60s
dominate up towards the IA state line. In terms on shwr/storm
activity...prevailing thought heading out of the gate this morning
is that most of the region will see long periods of dry conditions
as forcing for assent from the main upper low remains west and
main southern stream speed max remains well south. Despite
this...cannot rule out some isolated shwrs/storms later today
especially across the far eastern zones south of the front which
should have a better opportunity to destabilize (MLCAPE 1000-1500
J/kg or so) this afternoon. As was the case with yesterday/s model
runs...best wind fields will remain well away from the area...and
widespread severe is not expected. Cannot rule out a few isolated
hailers east of Route 65 but overall thought is much of this
activity if it develops...should remain below severe limits.

Lgt shwr activity to remain across northern portions of the fcst area
tonight and again through portions of Sunday morning as inverted
trough/upper low combine remain over the area. By these times
however...any instability will largely be absent which should support
nothing more than a few passing rain shwrs from time to time.
Noticeably cooler tomorrow as cold air advection starts on the
backside of departing sfc low. Look for highs only to climb into the
upper 50s to lower 60s across much of the area as winds change around
to the north by afternoon.

Beyond this...an extended period of mostly dry weather can be
expected through much of next week. Cannot rule out a few passing
shwrs Monday afternoon as a weak wave passes through...but dry low-
level conditions could result in mostly virga. Next chance for lgt
rain shwrs may arrive Wed afternoon/evening as the next cold front
passes through the area...but latest runs show this passing with
little impact. And looking farther into the extended suggests a nice
warning trend by late week into next weekend as strong ridging builds
east from the Rockies.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

IFR conditions well-established across the region this morning with
most locations sitting below alternate mins. Unfortunately little
improvement is expected through 18z as a very moist airmass will
remain in place. Light thunder activity should push through the
region by 14z however...with mostly dry conditions expected through
the remainder of the day. Frontal boundary to gradually lift north
through early afternoon which should lead to a rather quick
improvement back to VFR as the day progresses. Lowest confidence is
for the STJ terminal as low clouds may linger a little longer than
currently forecast based on its farthest north location. Clouds
likely to increase in areal coverage after 00z with a possible
reduction down to MVFR after 06z.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...32




000
FXUS63 KEAX 301132
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
632 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 330 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

Large-scale upper low spinning across the Central High Plains this
morning...with feature continuing to take on a more and more
negative tilt as system begins the occlusion process. Regional radars
showing main push of precip lifting north into southern Iowa this
morning...as main dryslot which has been advertised in recent model
runs begins its trek north from the Southern Plains. Heading into
today...main sfc low now seen over southeastern Kansas/northeastern
Oklahoma will slowly lift north along the I-49 corridor before
slowing down by afternoon as system continues occluding over north-
central Missouri. As this occurs...expect main occluded boundary to
begin lifting north towards the area with most models suggesting this
feature should make it as far north as the Route 36 corridor by this
afternoon. With this boundary expected to set up across our
area...expect a decent thermal gradient across the region with low
70s possible south of the Route 50 corridor while upper 50s/low 60s
dominate up towards the IA state line. In terms on shwr/storm
activity...prevailing thought heading out of the gate this morning
is that most of the region will see long periods of dry conditions
as forcing for assent from the main upper low remains west and
main southern stream speed max remains well south. Despite
this...cannot rule out some isolated shwrs/storms later today
especially across the far eastern zones south of the front which
should have a better opportunity to destabilize (MLCAPE 1000-1500
J/kg or so) this afternoon. As was the case with yesterday/s model
runs...best wind fields will remain well away from the area...and
widespread severe is not expected. Cannot rule out a few isolated
hailers east of Route 65 but overall thought is much of this
activity if it develops...should remain below severe limits.

Lgt shwr activity to remain across northern portions of the fcst area
tonight and again through portions of Sunday morning as inverted
trough/upper low combine remain over the area. By these times
however...any instability will largely be absent which should support
nothing more than a few passing rain shwrs from time to time.
Noticeably cooler tomorrow as cold air advection starts on the
backside of departing sfc low. Look for highs only to climb into the
upper 50s to lower 60s across much of the area as winds change around
to the north by afternoon.

Beyond this...an extended period of mostly dry weather can be
expected through much of next week. Cannot rule out a few passing
shwrs Monday afternoon as a weak wave passes through...but dry low-
level conditions could result in mostly virga. Next chance for lgt
rain shwrs may arrive Wed afternoon/evening as the next cold front
passes through the area...but latest runs show this passing with
little impact. And looking farther into the extended suggests a nice
warning trend by late week into next weekend as strong ridging builds
east from the Rockies.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

IFR conditions well-established across the region this morning with
most locations sitting below alternate mins. Unfortunately little
improvement is expected through 18z as a very moist airmass will
remain in place. Light thunder activity should push through the
region by 14z however...with mostly dry conditions expected through
the remainder of the day. Frontal boundary to gradually lift north
through early afternoon which should lead to a rather quick
improvement back to VFR as the day progresses. Lowest confidence is
for the STJ terminal as low clouds may linger a little longer than
currently forecast based on its farthest north location. Clouds
likely to increase in areal coverage after 00z with a possible
reduction down to MVFR after 06z.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...32




000
FXUS63 KLSX 300833
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
333 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

It will be an active day today. Current batch of showers and a few
thunderstorms to continue lifting northeast, slowly exiting from
southwest to northeast by midday. Then another piece of energy to
slide east across northern Missouri this afternoon and evening
helping to lift surface low off to the northeast. Models in pretty
good agreement, developing a line of convection just ahead of cold
front associated with surface low. If atmosphere is able to recover
from morning convection, decent CAPES between 1000-2000 J/kg, lapse
rates, and shear, could support some supercell development. SPC has
kept areas along and south of I-70 in a slight risk for severe
weather with the main threats being large hail, damaging winds and
possibly a few tornadoes.

As for high temperatures, it will be similar to yesterday with a
wide gradient from around 60 far north to the mid 70s south.

Byrd

.LONG TERM...  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

(Tonight)

Storms to lift northeast out of forecast area by 03z Sunday, with
just some lingering showers slowly tapering off. Lows will be in the
upper 40s to upper 50s.

(Sunday through Friday)

Closed upper level low over Nebraska to open up and lift out of
region on Sunday. Will see showers and a few thunderstorms across
the area on back side of system before precipitation comes to an end
Sunday evening.

Surface ridge to build in with cooler temps for beginning of work
week. Highs on Monday will only be in the low to mid 60s, a bit
below normal for this time of year.

Weak surface ridging to remain over region through rest of forecast
period. Some models wanting to have upper level shortwaves under cut
the ridge with some low chances of precipitation towards end of work
week. For now kept this period dry with near normal temps in the mid
60s to mid 70s.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Cloud ceilings will continue to gradually drop into the MVFR
category at the taf sites overnight as an intensifying southerly
low level jet brings increasing low level moisture into the area.
Showers and thunderstorms have already moved into COU and the St
Louis metro area late this evening and this activity will
continue overnight and into the early morning hours as a large
area of showers and storms over southwest MO moves northeastward
into our area. Ceilings and visibilities may at least briefly drop
into the IFR category late tonight and early Saturday morning
with the rain or showers and embedded elevated storms. Most of the
showers and storms should shift east-northeast of the taf sites by
late Saturday morning as a warm front shifts northeast of the
area. Easterly surface wind will veer around to a south-
southwesterly direction Saturday afternoon after passage of the
warm front. There may be scattered storms redeveloping late
Saturday afternoon or early evening mainly in the St Louis metro
area.

Specifics for KSTL: Showers and a few storms will continue
overnight and into Saturday morning with the cloud ceiling
dropping into the MVFR category around 06Z Saturday. The ceilings
and visibilities will drop down into the IFR category at times
late tonight and early Saturday morning. Most of the showers and
storms should shift east-northeast of STL by late morning with
the potential of scattered storms redeveloping late Saturday
afternoon or early evening. The prevailing ceiling will become VFR
Saturday afternoon. Easterly surface wind will continue late
tonight, then veer around to a southeasterly direction Saturday
morning, and a southwesterly direction Saturday afternoon.

GKS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis     73  57  69  49 /  90  50  30  10
Quincy          63  50  59  45 /  90  40  50  10
Columbia        72  50  63  47 /  70  30  30  10
Jefferson City  75  51  66  48 /  70  30  20  10
Salem           70  59  70  50 /  90  50  40  10
Farmington      73  54  72  48 /  80  50  20  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$
WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KEAX 300830
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
330 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 330 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

Large-scale upper low spinning across the Central High Plains this
morning...with feature continuing to take on a more and more
negative tilt as system begins the occlusion process. Regional radars
showing main push of precip lifting north into southern Iowa this
morning...as main dryslot which has been advertised in recent model
runs begins its trek north from the Southern Plains. Heading into
today...main sfc low now seen over southeastern Kansas/northeastern
Oklahoma will slowly lift north along the I-49 corridor before
slowing down by afternoon as system continues occluding over north-
central Missouri. As this occurs...expect main occluded boundary to
begin lifting north towards the area with most models suggesting this
feature should make it as far north as the Route 36 corridor by this
afternoon. With this boundary expected to set up across our
area...expect a decent thermal gradient across the region with low
70s possible south of the Route 50 corridor while upper 50s/low 60s
dominate up towards the IA state line. In terms on shwr/storm
activity...prevailing thought heading out of the gate this morning
is that most of the region will see long periods of dry conditions
as forcing for assent from the main upper low remains west and
main southern stream speed max remains well south. Despite
this...cannot rule out some isolated shwrs/storms later today
especially across the far eastern zones south of the front which
should have a better opportunity to destabilize (MLCAPE 1000-1500
J/kg or so) this afternoon. As was the case with yesterday/s model
runs...best wind fields will remain well away from the area...and
widespread severe is not expected. Cannot rule out a few isolated
hailers east of Route 65 but overall thought is much of this
activity if it develops...should remain below severe limits.

Lgt shwr activity to remain across northern portions of the fcst area
tonight and again through portions of Sunday morning as inverted
trough/upper low combine remain over the area. By these times
however...any instability will largely be absent which should support
nothing more than a few passing rain shwrs from time to time.
Noticeably cooler tomorrow as cold air advection starts on the
backside of departing sfc low. Look for highs only to climb into the
upper 50s to lower 60s across much of the area as winds change around
to the north by afternoon.

Beyond this...an extended period of mostly dry weather can be
expected through much of next week. Cannot rule out a few passing
shwrs Monday afternoon as a weak wave passes through...but dry low-
level conditions could result in mostly virga. Next chance for lgt
rain shwrs may arrive Wed afternoon/evening as the next cold front
passes through the area...but latest runs show this passing with
little impact. And looking farther into the extended suggests a nice
warning trend by late week into next weekend as strong ridging builds
east from the Rockies.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

IFR cigs will prevail thru morning hours with lgt fog reducing vsbys
to 4-5SM btn 10Z-19Z. Showers will affect the terminal thru 10Z with
lgt showers in the vc during the morning hours. Cigs will lift to btn
1-2kft btn 17Z-21Z before lifting to 2-3kft aft 21Z. Some models
suggest conds lift to VFR around sunset however cigs behind a cold
front, which will move thru the terminal in the late afternoon,
should keep cigs MVFR.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...73




000
FXUS63 KSGF 300808
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
308 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Widespread rainfall across the area gave a good soaking to most
locations overnight. Early this morning the back edge of the
precipitation was generally along highway 65 and should continue to
make steady progress eastward early this morning. Short term models
indicate a lull in the precipitation for much of the morning before
more convection forms later today.

This afternoon the primary upper low will slowly migrate eastward
through southern Nebraska, while a weak surface low lifts northeast,
pushing a cold front into the Missouri Ozarks, roughly to near
Highway 65 around 18Z. Models continue to show ample 0-6km bulk
shear and sufficient instability in the warm sector for strong to
severe thunderstorms. There still remains some uncertainty
regarding the severe threat. The first being a punch of drier air
in the mid levels that begins to push into the region which may
limit updraft potential. The second is the affect that morning
clouds and possible remaining precipitation will have on
instabilities. None the less, severe threat will last through
about mid evening across the eastern Ozarks before activity pushes
eastward with quiet weather expected for the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

The weakening upper low moves away from the area Sunday as upper
flow then transitions to a northwesterly flow for Monday through
Friday. A shortwave trough does drop southward across the region
Monday which will bring a slight chance for showers to southeast
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks and somewhat cooler temperatures as
highs will only be in the lower to middle 60s.

A slow warming trend, along with quiet and dry weather is then
expected for Tuesday through Friday as a ridge of high pressure
builds across the western Conus and begins to nudge eastward with
time. Temperatures will warm back into the middle 70s by the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms will end overnight
across southern Missouri although scattered activity will remain
possible through dawn. MVFR and localized IFR can be expected
with this activity. A brief improvement to VFR is then expected
for a few hours behind the back edge of the rain before MVFR and
IFR move back in during the predawn hours.

Restricted flight conditions will then continue into early
Saturday morning before conditions begin to improve from mid to
late morning. VFR is expected to return by midday. Some re-
development of thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon,
however we believe that this will occur just east of the
Springfield and Branson aerodromes.

Easterly winds tonight will slowly veer around to the southwest by
Saturday afternoon.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Schaumann




000
FXUS63 KSGF 300525
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1225 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

After a lull in the precipitation this afternoon expect showers
and thunderstorms to overspread the region from late this
afternoon into this evening and overnight. Convection across the
central and southern Plains will continue to increase and spread
east and northeast as a shortwave trough lifts northeast. In
addition a surface warm front will lift north from the Red River
Valley as surface cyclogenesis takes place over the Plains.
Strengthening synoptic scale lift within increasingly diffluent
flow aloft will support widespread showers and scattered to
numerous thunderstorms tonight.

The potential for severe storms is conditional based on the
degree of instability that develops. Models suggest most unstable
CAPE up to near 1000 J/KG nosing into extreme southeastern Kansas
and far southwestern Missouri as the evening progresses while the
low levels continue to moisten. Given the strong lift and deep
layer shear up to 50 kts strong if not locally severe convection is
not out of the question.

Expect tonight`s convection to push off to the east late tonight
and early Saturday as the shortwave swings northeast.

The primary upper level low will migrate eastward into the central
Plains Saturday while an associated cold front pushes east into
the Ozarks during the day. Forcing along this front coupled with
ample instability and deep layer shear will support the potential
for strong to severe storms mainly east of highway 65 during the
afternoon into the early evening. However deep mean layer
moisture looks to decrease during the day as a mid level dry slot
moses eastward. This could limit the development or least coverage
of convection Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

An extended period of relatively quiet weather will unfold as we
head into next week. Variable cloud cover and perhaps a few light
showers may linger Sunday and Monday as another system tracks to
our south. Otherwise models prog the evolution of a more
northwesterly flow aloft as the week progresses. Temperatures
will be near to slightly below seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms will end overnight
across southern Missouri although scattered activity will remain
possible through dawn. MVFR and localized IFR can be expected
with this activity. A brief improvement to VFR is then expected
for a few hours behind the back edge of the rain before MVFR and
IFR move back in during the predawn hours.

Restricted flight conditions will then continue into early
Saturday morning before conditions begin to improve from mid to
late morning. VFR is expected to return by midday. Some re-
development of thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon,
however we believe that this will occur just east of the
Springfield and Branson aerodromes.

Easterly winds tonight will slowly veer around to the southwest by
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Schaumann




000
FXUS63 KEAX 300436
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1136 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 339 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

Stormy weather is still expected later today and overnight as part
of a large Great Basin/Desert Southwest low ejects as a shortwave
trough through the Plains States this weekend. Currently, the
shortwave is pivoting into the southwest Plains, and will continue
to sweep northeast overnight, with the surface low in Texas and the
associated front along the Arkansas River lifting north today in
response.

For the rest of today and tonight...the active area of storms across
central Kansas into Oklahoma will continue to lift northeast as the
parent shortwave swings into the Plains, bringing storms into
eastern Kansas and Missouri later today. Current timing has light
rain spreading into the region late this afternoon with areas of
embedded thunderstorms and moderate rain spreading across the region
soon thereafter. Severe threat form thunderstorms, whether this
afternoon or this evening, are looking minimal as instability is
mostly to the south of our area with only a few hundred J/KG of
MUCAPE advertised advecting in aloft; though sufficient to fuel the
embedded thunderstorm activity. If any strong storms could get going,
locally gusty winds and small hail would be the threats given the
effective shear that will likely accompany the complex moving through
Kansas. Additionally, any rainfall tonight will generally run between
0.5 and 1 inch, but areas that get strong embedded thunderstorms
might pick up between 1 and 2 inches of rain locally. Any additional
rain will likely exacerbate already ongoing flooding issues across
the region and therefore will need monitoring overnight. However, on
the positive side, while the system has a lot of precipitable water
to work with --PWATS of 1.2" or higher-- the system is progressive,
so training thunderstorm activity is not expected.

For Saturday...much of the rain will likely shift north to the Iowa
border and points north, or to our east, as the surface low and
associated upper level shortwave head northeast through Missouri.
Have sped up the progress of POPs across the region as a result,
but can not rule out some isolated to scattered activity lingering
across the region. However, once again no severe storms are expected
as the better instability and shear will be off to our south and
east, though not that far away for parts of central Missouri.

Sunday on into next work week...the parent shortwave, driving
today`s activity, will slowly continue northeast with a follow on
shortwave ejecting out of the southwest to follow it. A surface high
will press into the Plains behind the early weekend shortwave, and
many of the models continue to advertise storms lingering through
Sunday near the Iowa border as a result, and while we have kept some
POPs for the late weekend confidence in POPs from Sunday are low.
Then the work week looks nice. There will still be enough of a trough
to our west next work week to keep the prevailing westerlies to our
south for Monday and Tuesday, thus a little cool to begin to the work
week, but we will be dry and temperatures will lift back into the 70s
by mid-work-week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

IFR cigs will prevail thru morning hours with lgt fog reducing vsbys
to 4-5SM btn 10Z-19Z. Showers will affect the terminal thru 10Z with
lgt showers in the vc during the morning hours. Cigs will lift to btn
1-2kft btn 17Z-21Z before lifting to 2-3kft aft 21Z. Some models
suggest conds lift to VFR around sunset however cigs behind a cold
front, which will move thru the terminal in the late afternoon,
should keep cigs MVFR.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...73




000
FXUS63 KEAX 300436
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1136 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 339 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

Stormy weather is still expected later today and overnight as part
of a large Great Basin/Desert Southwest low ejects as a shortwave
trough through the Plains States this weekend. Currently, the
shortwave is pivoting into the southwest Plains, and will continue
to sweep northeast overnight, with the surface low in Texas and the
associated front along the Arkansas River lifting north today in
response.

For the rest of today and tonight...the active area of storms across
central Kansas into Oklahoma will continue to lift northeast as the
parent shortwave swings into the Plains, bringing storms into
eastern Kansas and Missouri later today. Current timing has light
rain spreading into the region late this afternoon with areas of
embedded thunderstorms and moderate rain spreading across the region
soon thereafter. Severe threat form thunderstorms, whether this
afternoon or this evening, are looking minimal as instability is
mostly to the south of our area with only a few hundred J/KG of
MUCAPE advertised advecting in aloft; though sufficient to fuel the
embedded thunderstorm activity. If any strong storms could get going,
locally gusty winds and small hail would be the threats given the
effective shear that will likely accompany the complex moving through
Kansas. Additionally, any rainfall tonight will generally run between
0.5 and 1 inch, but areas that get strong embedded thunderstorms
might pick up between 1 and 2 inches of rain locally. Any additional
rain will likely exacerbate already ongoing flooding issues across
the region and therefore will need monitoring overnight. However, on
the positive side, while the system has a lot of precipitable water
to work with --PWATS of 1.2" or higher-- the system is progressive,
so training thunderstorm activity is not expected.

For Saturday...much of the rain will likely shift north to the Iowa
border and points north, or to our east, as the surface low and
associated upper level shortwave head northeast through Missouri.
Have sped up the progress of POPs across the region as a result,
but can not rule out some isolated to scattered activity lingering
across the region. However, once again no severe storms are expected
as the better instability and shear will be off to our south and
east, though not that far away for parts of central Missouri.

Sunday on into next work week...the parent shortwave, driving
today`s activity, will slowly continue northeast with a follow on
shortwave ejecting out of the southwest to follow it. A surface high
will press into the Plains behind the early weekend shortwave, and
many of the models continue to advertise storms lingering through
Sunday near the Iowa border as a result, and while we have kept some
POPs for the late weekend confidence in POPs from Sunday are low.
Then the work week looks nice. There will still be enough of a trough
to our west next work week to keep the prevailing westerlies to our
south for Monday and Tuesday, thus a little cool to begin to the work
week, but we will be dry and temperatures will lift back into the 70s
by mid-work-week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

IFR cigs will prevail thru morning hours with lgt fog reducing vsbys
to 4-5SM btn 10Z-19Z. Showers will affect the terminal thru 10Z with
lgt showers in the vc during the morning hours. Cigs will lift to btn
1-2kft btn 17Z-21Z before lifting to 2-3kft aft 21Z. Some models
suggest conds lift to VFR around sunset however cigs behind a cold
front, which will move thru the terminal in the late afternoon,
should keep cigs MVFR.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...73




000
FXUS63 KLSX 300419
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1119 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Will show an increase in showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
this evening as low level moisture convergence begins to increase
over the area.  Will keep categorical PoPs over the entire area
overnight as low level moisture increases on the nose of a 40kt low
level jet.  This will occur under increasing mid-upper ascent of
large upper low now entering southern Plains. Severe weather
threat tonight will be limited by the lack of instability, but
moisture will be plentiful with increasing PWATs around 1.5 by
12Z. Widespread lows in the 50s still look good and are close to
MOS guidance.

Britt

.LONG TERM...  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

(Saturday through Monday)

Main concern will continue to be the potential for severe storms on
Saturday and Saturday evening.  Widespread showers and thunderstorms
should be ongoing during the early morning hours as there will still
be some strong low level moisture convergence underlying the mid
level ascent.  This will allow for the widespread showers and
thunderstorms to end from southwest to northeast during the late
morning and early afternoon hours.  Still have some concern about
redevelopment of thunderstorms along and south of I-70 during the
afternoon and evening hours.  Latest run of the GFS is farther north
of the surface low which matches better with the more consistent
ECMWF and NAM.  Will continue to show chance PoPS for thunderstorms
during the afternoon and evening.  Model MUCAPES are in the 1000-
2000 J/kg range with deep layer that supports supercells.
Hodographs in the warm sector suggests a sheared environment that
would favor multicells with a damaging wind potential.  However,
could not rule out a brief tornado potential along the warm front.
Severe potential should end toward late evening once the cold front
moves east of the CWA.

Shower chances will continue into Sunday as the upper low passes
through the area.

(Tuesday through Friday)

GFS and ECMWF continues to show highly amplified upper flow over
North America next week with a deep trough over the eastern CONUS
and a ridge over the Rocky Mountains.  This will result in northerly
upper flow aloft through the period that is cutoff from a supply of
Gulf Moisture, so will keep forecast mainly dry for now.  GFS and
ECMWF does show a cold front that moves across the area from the
north on Wednesday night.  850mb temperatures look cooler today than
previous runs, which support temperatures closer to normal as we go
into early May.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Cloud ceilings will continue to gradually drop into the MVFR
catagory at the taf sites overnight as an intensifying southerly
low level jet brings increasing low level moisture into the area.
Showers and thunderstorms have already moved into COU and the St
Louis metro area late this evening and this activity will
continue overnight and into the early morning hours as a large
area of showers and storms over southwest MO moves northeastward
into our area. Ceilings and visibilities may at least briefly drop
into the IFR catagory late tonight and early Saturday morning with
the rain or showers and embedded elevated storms. Most of the
showers and storms should shift east-northeast of the taf sites by
late Saturday morning as a warm front shifts northeast of the
area. Easterly surface wind will veer around to a south-
southwesterly direction Saturday afternoon after passage of the
warm front. There may be scattered storms redeveloping late
Saturday afternoon or early evening mainly in the St Louis metro
area.

Specifics for KSTL: Showers and a few storms will continue
overnight and into Saturday morning with the cloud ceiling
dropping into the MVFR catagory around 06Z Saturday. The ceilings
and visibilities will drop down into the IFR catagory at times
late tonight and early Saturday morning. Most of the showers and
storms should shift east-northeast of STL by late morning with
the potential of scattered storms redeveloping late Saturday
afternoon or early evening. The prevailing ceiling will become VFR
Saturday afternoon. Easterly surface wind will continue late
tonight, then veer around to a southeasterly direction Saturday
morning, and a southwesterly direction Saturday afternoon.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 300419
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1119 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Will show an increase in showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
this evening as low level moisture convergence begins to increase
over the area.  Will keep categorical PoPs over the entire area
overnight as low level moisture increases on the nose of a 40kt low
level jet.  This will occur under increasing mid-upper ascent of
large upper low now entering southern Plains. Severe weather
threat tonight will be limited by the lack of instability, but
moisture will be plentiful with increasing PWATs around 1.5 by
12Z. Widespread lows in the 50s still look good and are close to
MOS guidance.

Britt

.LONG TERM...  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

(Saturday through Monday)

Main concern will continue to be the potential for severe storms on
Saturday and Saturday evening.  Widespread showers and thunderstorms
should be ongoing during the early morning hours as there will still
be some strong low level moisture convergence underlying the mid
level ascent.  This will allow for the widespread showers and
thunderstorms to end from southwest to northeast during the late
morning and early afternoon hours.  Still have some concern about
redevelopment of thunderstorms along and south of I-70 during the
afternoon and evening hours.  Latest run of the GFS is farther north
of the surface low which matches better with the more consistent
ECMWF and NAM.  Will continue to show chance PoPS for thunderstorms
during the afternoon and evening.  Model MUCAPES are in the 1000-
2000 J/kg range with deep layer that supports supercells.
Hodographs in the warm sector suggests a sheared environment that
would favor multicells with a damaging wind potential.  However,
could not rule out a brief tornado potential along the warm front.
Severe potential should end toward late evening once the cold front
moves east of the CWA.

Shower chances will continue into Sunday as the upper low passes
through the area.

(Tuesday through Friday)

GFS and ECMWF continues to show highly amplified upper flow over
North America next week with a deep trough over the eastern CONUS
and a ridge over the Rocky Mountains.  This will result in northerly
upper flow aloft through the period that is cutoff from a supply of
Gulf Moisture, so will keep forecast mainly dry for now.  GFS and
ECMWF does show a cold front that moves across the area from the
north on Wednesday night.  850mb temperatures look cooler today than
previous runs, which support temperatures closer to normal as we go
into early May.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Cloud ceilings will continue to gradually drop into the MVFR
catagory at the taf sites overnight as an intensifying southerly
low level jet brings increasing low level moisture into the area.
Showers and thunderstorms have already moved into COU and the St
Louis metro area late this evening and this activity will
continue overnight and into the early morning hours as a large
area of showers and storms over southwest MO moves northeastward
into our area. Ceilings and visibilities may at least briefly drop
into the IFR catagory late tonight and early Saturday morning with
the rain or showers and embedded elevated storms. Most of the
showers and storms should shift east-northeast of the taf sites by
late Saturday morning as a warm front shifts northeast of the
area. Easterly surface wind will veer around to a south-
southwesterly direction Saturday afternoon after passage of the
warm front. There may be scattered storms redeveloping late
Saturday afternoon or early evening mainly in the St Louis metro
area.

Specifics for KSTL: Showers and a few storms will continue
overnight and into Saturday morning with the cloud ceiling
dropping into the MVFR catagory around 06Z Saturday. The ceilings
and visibilities will drop down into the IFR catagory at times
late tonight and early Saturday morning. Most of the showers and
storms should shift east-northeast of STL by late morning with
the potential of scattered storms redeveloping late Saturday
afternoon or early evening. The prevailing ceiling will become VFR
Saturday afternoon. Easterly surface wind will continue late
tonight, then veer around to a southeasterly direction Saturday
morning, and a southwesterly direction Saturday afternoon.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KSGF 292358
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
658 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

After a lull in the precipitation this afternoon expect showers
and thunderstorms to overspread the region from late this
afternoon into this evening and overnight. Convection across the
central and southern Plains will continue to increase and spread
east and northeast as a shortwave trough lifts northeast. In
addition a surface warm front will lift north from the Red River
Valley as surface cyclogenesis takes place over the Plains.
Strengthening synoptic scale lift within increasingly diffluent
flow aloft will support widespread showers and scattered to
numerous thunderstorms tonight.

The potential for severe storms is conditional based on the
degree of instability that develops. Models suggest most unstable
CAPE up to near 1000 J/KG nosing into extreme southeastern Kansas
and far southwestern Missouri as the evening progresses while the
low levels continue to moisten. Given the strong lift and deep
layer shear up to 50 kts strong if not locally severe convection is
not out of the question.

Expect tonight`s convection to push off to the east late tonight
and early Saturday as the shortwave swings northeast.

The primary upper level low will migrate eastward into the central
Plains Saturday while an associated cold front pushes east into
the Ozarks during the day. Forcing along this front coupled with
ample instability and deep layer shear will support the potential
for strong to severe storms mainly east of highway 65 during the
afternoon into the early evening. However deep mean layer
moisture looks to decrease during the day as a mid level dry slot
moses eastward. This could limit the development or least coverage
of convection Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

An extended period of relatively quiet weather will unfold as we
head into next week. Variable cloud cover and perhaps a few light
showers may linger Sunday and Monday as another system tracks to
our south. Otherwise models prog the evolution of a more
northwesterly flow aloft as the week progresses. Temperatures
will be near to slightly below seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

A band of showers and thunderstorms will push across the region
tonight bringing MVFR and localized IFR conditions. Even between
thunderstorms, patches of drizzle and fog will continue to reduce
visibility. Brisk easterly to southeasterly surface winds will
also persist with gusts over 25 knots around Springfield. Low
level wind shear conditions are also expected.

Prevailing IFR conditions are then expected from the predawn hours
into early Saturday morning before flight conditions gradually
begin to improve. There is a limited chance that thunderstorms
could redevelop in the afternoon around Springfield and Branson as
a front moves through the area.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Schaumann




000
FXUS63 KEAX 292322
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
622 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 339 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

Stormy weather is still expected later today and overnight as part
of a large Great Basin/Desert Southwest low ejects as a shortwave
trough through the Plains States this weekend. Currently, the
shortwave is pivoting into the southwest Plains, and will continue
to sweep northeast overnight, with the surface low in Texas and the
associated front along the Arkansas River lifting north today in
response.

For the rest of today and tonight...the active area of storms across
central Kansas into Oklahoma will continue to lift northeast as the
parent shortwave swings into the Plains, bringing storms into
eastern Kansas and Missouri later today. Current timing has light
rain spreading into the region late this afternoon with areas of
embedded thunderstorms and moderate rain spreading across the region
soon thereafter. Severe threat form thunderstorms, whether this
afternoon or this evening, are looking minimal as instability is
mostly to the south of our area with only a few hundred J/KG of
MUCAPE advertised advecting in aloft; though sufficient to fuel the
embedded thunderstorm activity. If any strong storms could get going,
locally gusty winds and small hail would be the threats given the
effective shear that will likely accompany the complex moving through
Kansas. Additionally, any rainfall tonight will generally run between
0.5 and 1 inch, but areas that get strong embedded thunderstorms
might pick up between 1 and 2 inches of rain locally. Any additional
rain will likely exacerbate already ongoing flooding issues across
the region and therefore will need monitoring overnight. However, on
the positive side, while the system has a lot of precipitable water
to work with --PWATS of 1.2" or higher-- the system is progressive,
so training thunderstorm activity is not expected.

For Saturday...much of the rain will likely shift north to the Iowa
border and points north, or to our east, as the surface low and
associated upper level shortwave head northeast through Missouri.
Have sped up the progress of POPs across the region as a result,
but can not rule out some isolated to scattered activity lingering
across the region. However, once again no severe storms are expected
as the better instability and shear will be off to our south and
east, though not that far away for parts of central Missouri.

Sunday on into next work week...the parent shortwave, driving
today`s activity, will slowly continue northeast with a follow on
shortwave ejecting out of the southwest to follow it. A surface high
will press into the Plains behind the early weekend shortwave, and
many of the models continue to advertise storms lingering through
Sunday near the Iowa border as a result, and while we have kept some
POPs for the late weekend confidence in POPs from Sunday are low.
Then the work week looks nice. There will still be enough of a trough
to our west next work week to keep the prevailing westerlies to our
south for Monday and Tuesday, thus a little cool to begin to the work
week, but we will be dry and temperatures will lift back into the 70s
by mid-work-week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

Rain movg thru the terminals at the beginning of the TAF pd will
affect the terminals thru 04Z-06Z with MVFR cigs/vis. Aft 06Z expect
cigs to drop into IFR with a break in pcpn. A second round of
thundershowers will move into the terminals 08Z-10Z and cont thru the
morning hours with IFR cigs cont and light fog reducing vsbys to
4-5SM. Cigs should lift back to MVFR btn 16Z-18Z. Winds will be out
of the east tonight and pick up to 15-20kts with gusts to around
25kts before subside around sunrise to 10-15kts. Winds will veer to
the SSW during the afternoon around 10kts.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...73




000
FXUS63 KLSX 292251
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
551 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Will show an increase in showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
this evening as low level moisture convergence begins to increase
over the area.  Will keep categorical PoPs over the entire area
overnight as low level moisture increases on the nose of a 40kt low
level jet.  This will occur under increasing mid-upper ascent of
large upper low now entering southern Plains. Severe weather
threat tonight will be limited by the lack of instability, but
moisture will be plentiful with increasing PWATs around 1.5 by
12Z. Widespread lows in the 50s still look good and are close to
MOS guidance.

Britt

.LONG TERM...  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

(Saturday through Monday)

Main concern will continue to be the potential for severe storms on
Saturday and Saturday evening.  Widespread showers and thunderstorms
should be ongoing during the early morning hours as there will still
be some strong low level moisture convergence underlying the mid
level ascent.  This will allow for the widespread showers and
thunderstorms to end from southwest to northeast during the late
morning and early afternoon hours.  Still have some concern about
redevelopment of thunderstorms along and south of I-70 during the
afternoon and evening hours.  Latest run of the GFS is farther north
of the surface low which matches better with the more consistent
ECMWF and NAM.  Will continue to show chance PoPS for thunderstorms
during the afternoon and evening.  Model MUCAPES are in the 1000-
2000 J/kg range with deep layer that supports supercells.
Hodographs in the warm sector suggests a sheared environment that
would favor multicells with a damaging wind potential.  However,
could not rule out a brief tornado potential along the warm front.
Severe potential should end toward late evening once the cold front
moves east of the CWA.

Shower chances will continue into Sunday as the upper low passes
through the area.

(Tuesday through Friday)

GFS and ECMWF continues to show highly amplified upper flow over
North America next week with a deep trough over the eastern CONUS
and a ridge over the Rocky Mountains.  This will result in northerly
upper flow aloft through the period that is cutoff from a supply of
Gulf Moisture, so will keep forecast mainly dry for now.  GFS and
ECMWF does show a cold front that moves across the area from the
north on Wednesday night.  850mb temperatures look cooler today than
previous runs, which support temperatures closer to normal as we go
into early May.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 518 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

MVFR cigs should continue in UIN this evening, while ceilings
gradually drop into the MVFR catagory elsewhere later this evening
and overnight as an intensifying southerly low level jet brings
increasing low level moisture into the area. Showers and
thunderstorms now over portions of eastern KS and western MO south
into eastern OK and western AR will spread east-northeastward into
COU around 03Z later this evening and into UIN and the St Louis
metro area around 06Z Saturday. Ceilings and visibilities may at
least briefly drop into the IFR catagory late tonight and early
Saturday morning with the rain or showers and embedded elevated
storms. Most of the showers and storms should shift east-northeast
of the taf sites by late Saturday morning or early afternoon as a
warm front shifts northeast of the area. East-northeasterly
surface wind will become more due easterly later this evening,
then veer around to a south-southwesterly direction Saturday
afternoon after passage of the warm front.

Specifics for KSTL: Showers and a few storms should move into STL
around 05-06Z tonight with the cloud ceiling dropping into the
MVFR catagory. Showers and a few storms should continue late
tonight and much of Saturday morning with ceilings and
visibilities down into the IFR catagory at times. Most of the
showers and storms should shift east-northeast of STL by early
afternoon with the potential of scattered storms redeveloping late
Saturday afternoon or early evening. The prevailing ceiling will
become VFR Saturday afternoon. Easterly surface wind will continue
tonight, then veer around to a southeasterly direction Saturday
morning, and a south-southwesterly direction Saturday afternoon.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KEAX 292039
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
339 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 339 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

Stormy weather is still expected later today and overnight as part
of a large Great Basin/Desert Southwest low ejects as a shortwave
trough through the Plains States this weekend. Currently, the
shortwave is pivoting into the southwest Plains, and will continue
to sweep northeast overnight, with the surface low in Texas and the
associated front along the Arkansas River lifting north today in
response.

For the rest of today and tonight...the active area of storms across
central Kansas into Oklahoma will continue to lift northeast as the
parent shortwave swings into the Plains, bringing storms into
eastern Kansas and Missouri later today. Current timing has light
rain spreading into the region late this afternoon with areas of
embedded thunderstorms and moderate rain spreading across the region
soon thereafter. Severe threat form thunderstorms, whether this
afternoon or this evening, are looking minimal as instability is
mostly to the south of our area with only a few hundred J/KG of
MUCAPE advertised advecting in aloft; though sufficient to fuel the
embedded thunderstorm activity. If any strong storms could get going,
locally gusty winds and small hail would be the threats given the
effective shear that will likely accompany the complex moving through
Kansas. Additionally, any rainfall tonight will generally run between
0.5 and 1 inch, but areas that get strong embedded thunderstorms
might pick up between 1 and 2 inches of rain locally. Any additional
rain will likely exacerbate already ongoing flooding issues across
the region and therefore will need monitoring overnight. However, on
the positive side, while the system has a lot of precipitable water
to work with --PWATS of 1.2" or higher-- the system is progressive,
so training thunderstorm activity is not expected.

For Saturday...much of the rain will likely shift north to the Iowa
border and points north, or to our east, as the surface low and
associated upper level shortwave head northeast through Missouri.
Have sped up the progress of POPs across the region as a result,
but can not rule out some isolated to scattered activity lingering
across the region. However, once again no severe storms are expected
as the better instability and shear will be off to our south and
east, though not that far away for parts of central Missouri.

Sunday on into next work week...the parent shortwave, driving
today`s activity, will slowly continue northeast with a follow on
shortwave ejecting out of the southwest to follow it. A surface high
will press into the Plains behind the early weekend shortwave, and
many of the models continue to advertise storms lingering through
Sunday near the Iowa border as a result, and while we have kept some
POPs for the late weekend confidence in POPs from Sunday are low.
Then the work week looks nice. There will still be enough of a trough
to our west next work week to keep the prevailing westerlies to our
south for Monday and Tuesday, thus a little cool to begin to the work
week, but we will be dry and temperatures will lift back into the 70s
by mid-work-week.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

MVFR clouds currently prevail across the terminals in western
Missouri, and while the CIGs are expected to bounce around a little
in advance of a large convective complex moving in our direction the
ceilings should stay in the MVFR range. However, once the rain moves
in later-this-afternoon/early-this-evening CIGs and surface
visibilities will drop based on upstream readings. Have pushed the
overnight hours down into the IFR range as a result as the more
robust storm activity arrives this evening, but then quickly clear
conditions mid to late Saturday morning as dry air sweeps in under
the system lifting across us tonight. This will also bring gusty
winds that will veer to the southwest with the scattering of the
clouds.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter




000
FXUS63 KLSX 292018
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
318 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Will show an increase in showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
this evening as low level moisture convergence begins to increase
over the area.  Will keep categorical PoPs over the entire area
overnight as low level moisture increases on the nose of a 40kt low
level jet.  This will occur under increasing mid-upper ascent of
large upper low now entering southern Plains. Severe weather
threat tonight will be limited by the lack of instability, but
moisture will be plentiful with increasing PWATs around 1.5 by
12Z. Widespread lows in the 50s still look good and are close to
MOS guidance.

Britt

.LONG TERM...  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

(Saturday through Monday)

Main concern will continue to be the potential for severe storms on
Saturday and Saturday evening.  Widespread showers and thunderstorms
should be ongoing during the early morning hours as there will still
be some strong low level moisture convergence underlying the mid
level ascent.  This will allow for the widespread showers and
thunderstorms to end from southwest to northeast during the late
morning and early afternoon hours.  Still have some concern about
redevelopment of thunderstorms along and south of I-70 during the
afternoon and evening hours.  Latest run of the GFS is farther north
of the surface low which matches better with the more consistent
ECMWF and NAM.  Will continue to show chance PoPS for thunderstorms
during the afternoon and evening.  Model MUCAPES are in the 1000-
2000 J/kg range with deep layer that supports supercells.
Hodographs in the warm sector suggests a sheared environment that
would favor multicells with a damaging wind potential.  However,
could not rule out a brief tornado potential along the warm front.
Severe potential should end toward late evening once the cold front
moves east of the CWA.

Shower chances will continue into Sunday as the upper low passes
through the area.

(Tuesday through Friday)

GFS and ECMWF continues to show highly amplified upper flow over
North America next week with a deep trough over the eastern CONUS
and a ridge over the Rocky Mountains.  This will result in northerly
upper flow aloft through the period that is cutoff from a supply of
Gulf Moisture, so will keep forecast mainly dry for now.  GFS and
ECMWF does show a cold front that moves across the area from the
north on Wednesday night.  850mb temperatures look cooler today than
previous runs, which support temperatures closer to normal as we go
into early May.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Specifics for KCOU: Mid/high clouds will persist ahead of an
approaching disturbance. SHRA/TSRA develop after 03z and persist
through the overnight hours, accompanied by MVFR cigs. Conditions
may fall to IFR at times.

Specifics for KUIN: KUIN is far enough north that MVFR cigs are
expected to persist for at least the next few hours and possibly
longer. Thereafter, mid/high clouds will continue to increase
ahead of an approaching disturbance. SHRA/TSRA develop after 06z
and persist into the morning hours, accompanied by MVFR cigs.
Conditions may fall to IFR at times.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: A brief period of MVFR cigs is
ongoing at TAF issuance at KSTL but should improve quickly based
on recent obs at KSUS and KCPS. Mid/high clouds will persist ahead
of an approaching disturbance. SHRA/TSRA develop after 06z and
persist into the morning hours, accompanied by MVFR cigs.
Conditions may fall to IFR at times. Beyond the end of the 24hr
TAF pd, a second round of scattered thunderstorms is possible at
St. Louis metro area terminals after 30/21z.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KSGF 292011
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
311 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...Showers & Thunderstorms Tonight and Possibly Saturday...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

After a lull in the precipitation this afternoon expect showers
and thunderstorms to overspread the region from late this
afternoon into this evening and overnight. Convection across the
central and southern Plains will continue to increase and spread
east and northeast as a shortwave trough lifts northeast. In
addition a surface warm front will lift north from the Red River
Valley as surface cyclogenesis takes place over the Plains.
Strengthening synoptic scale lift within increasingly diffluent
flow aloft will support widespread showers and scattered to
numerous thunderstorms tonight.

The potential for severe storms is conditional based on the
degree of instability that develops. Models suggest most unstable
CAPE up to near 1000 J/KG nosing into extreme southeastern Kansas
and far southwestern Missouri as the evening progresses while the
low levels continue to moisten. Given the strong lift and deep
layer shear up to 50 kts strong if not locally severe convection is
not out of the question.

Expect tonight`s convection to push off to the east late tonight
and early Saturday as the shortwave swings northeast.

The primary upper level low will migrate eastward into the central
Plains Saturday while an associated cold front pushes east into
the Ozarks during the day. Forcing along this front coupled with
ample instability and deep layer shear will support the potential
for strong to severe storms mainly east of highway 65 during the
afternoon into the early evening. However deep mean layer
moisture looks to decrease during the day as a mid level dry slot
moses eastward. This could limit the development or least coverage
of convection Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

An extended period of relatively quiet weather will unfold as we
head into next week. Variable cloud cover and perhaps a few light
showers may linger Sunday and Monday as another system tracks to
our south. Otherwise models prog the evolution of a more
northwesterly flow aloft as the week progresses. Temperatures
will be near to slightly below seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Pilots can expect overall deteriorating flight conditions through
tonight as a storm system tracks into the region. Pilots can
expect variable ceilings with more widespead MVFR and IFR ceilings
tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will increase tonight as a warm
front lifts north into the region which will also reduce the
visibility at times. Ceilings will gradually rise Saturday as
cold front approaches from the west.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Foster




000
FXUS63 KLSX 291809
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
109 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Mid and high clouds from next system already streaming across
forecast area early this morning. But with dry east flow at surface,
it will take some time for the moisture to return. Instability will
be marginal as well. So mainly showers and a few thunderstorms will
develop over southern/western Missouri and increase in coverage to
the northeast. Otherwise, temperatures will be near normal in the
low 60s to around 70 for highs.

Byrd

.LONG TERM...  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Models still have some placement issues with the area of low
pressure with the NAM further north than the GFS, and the ECMWF
somewhere in between. For now feel that warm front to develop and
lift north across forecast area tonight, stalling out along the
I70 corridor. Decent low level jet helping to bring in plenty of
moisture and will see elevated convection develop and track east
northeast across forecast area.

On Saturday, if system is further north we could see more of a
severe weather threat. With surface dewpts in the low to mid 60s,
will see surface based CAPES in excess of 2000 J/kg, but shear will
be weak. So SPC has placed areas along and south of I70 in a slight
risk for Saturday with the main threat being large hail.

All models are indicating closed upper level low to open up and lift
out late Saturday night and Sunday with rain coming to an end by
Sunday evening.

For the rest of the forecast period, it looks to be dry as a surface
ridge builds in. Will see some weak upper level shortwaves slide
across southern portions of the forecast area through this period,
but little in the way of precipitation is expected. Temperatures
will be a bit below normal on Monday, but expect highs in the low to
mid 70s by Wednesday and Thursday.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Specifics for KCOU: Mid/high clouds will persist ahead of an
approaching disturbance. SHRA/TSRA develop after 03z and persist
through the overnight hours, accompanied by MVFR cigs. Conditions
may fall to IFR at times.

Specifics for KUIN: KUIN is far enough north that MVFR cigs are
expected to persist for at least the next few hours and possibly
longer. Thereafter, mid/high clouds will continue to increase
ahead of an approaching disturbance. SHRA/TSRA develop after 06z
and persist into the morning hours, accompanied by MVFR cigs.
Conditions may fall to IFR at times.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: A brief period of MVFR cigs is
ongoing at TAF issuance at KSTL but should improve quickly based
on recent obs at KSUS and KCPS. Mid/high clouds will persist ahead
of an approaching disturbance. SHRA/TSRA develop after 06z and
persist into the morning hours, accompanied by MVFR cigs.
Conditions may fall to IFR at times. Beyond the end of the 24hr
TAF pd, a second round of scattered thunderstorms is possible at
St. Louis metro area terminals after 30/21z.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KEAX 291746
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1246 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 348 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

Large trough of low pressure continues to spin across the Great Basin
and Desert Southwest this morning...with well-established southwest
flow prevailing downstream across the Plains and into the Lower
Missouri Vly. Along the surface...latest analysis places a nearly
stationary frontal boundary across the Red Rvr Vly with eastward
extension into the ARKLATEX region. Lead impulse embedded in
southwest flow aloft is combining with the 850-hPa front to result in
light rain showers across western portions of the fcst area...with
MCI now reporting light rain per the 08z observation. In
reality...this area of light rain will be short-lived as lead impulse
shifts away from the area.

For the remainder of today...expect increasing cloud cover as upper
trough shifts east and sfc front to our south begins to lift north
with time. As such...precip chances will again increase from south to
the north during the late afternoon hrs with activity becoming more
widespread heading into the evening and overnight hrs as main trough
ejects east and takes on a negative tilt across the central High
Plains. In terms on thunder potential...quick look at several
forecast soundings reveals little in the way of instability
today...thus have capped mention of thunder in the isolated category.
The potential looks a little better overnight as elevated
instability of a couple hundred joules develops...however no severe
weather is anticipated. With increasing cloud cover...expect daytime
highs to top out in the mid to upper 60s with values only falling
into the mid to upper 50s tonight.

On Saturday...main upper low expected to slowly meander across the
central High Plains with main surface low becoming occluded with
time. As the sfc low occludes...main frontal boundary will lift north
to the I-70 corridor by afternoon. Decent heating by afternoon south
of the boundary combined with steep lapse rates will lead to moderate
instability by afternoon...with severe concerns once again returning
to portions of the area. Main caveat going forward which could limit
the degree of storm coverage will be lack of strong mid/upper-level
forcing as main 500-hPa low remains well west and southern stream jet
remains across the the Arkansas/western Tennessee region.
Additionally...much of our area will be in subsidence through a good
portion of the day as main shortwave responsible for tonight`s
activity lifts north into the upper Miss Vly with time. In any
event...cannot rule out some isolated storms capable of large hail if
frontal convergence can initiate activity...however better threat for
severe will reside south and east of the fcst area in closer
proximity to main upper jet.

Main wave to finally start moving east trough the area on Sunday as
500 hPa circulation gets picked up be a trough moving through the
upper Midwest/western Great Lakes. This should gradually allow rain
chances to come to an end by the end of the weekend with dry weather
and warming temps then expected through much of next week. No real
weather makers of interest seen in the latest model runs through the
extended as western U.S. ridging slowly builds east with time.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

MVFR clouds currently prevail across the terminals in western
Missouri, and while the CIGs are expected to bounce around a little
in advance of a large convective complex moving in our direction the
ceilings should stay in the MVFR range. However, once the rain moves
in later-this-afternoon/early-this-evening CIGs and surface
visibilities will drop based on upstream readings. Have pushed the
overnight hours down into the IFR range as a result as the more
robust storm activity arrives this evening, but then quickly clear
conditions mid to late Saturday morning as dry air sweeps in under
the system lifting across us tonight. This will also bring gusty
winds that will veer to the southwest with the scattering of the
clouds.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...Cutter




000
FXUS63 KSGF 291736
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1236 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Early this morning surface boundary extends from southwest Oklahoma
into northern Arkansas and far southeast Missouri. Low level jet had
increased across the Plains with showers over western Oklahoma into
south central Kansas and another area in southern Oklahoma.
Isentropic lift to the north of the boundary will strengthen and
overspread the region this morning as upper low begins to shift into
western Kansas later today. Expect rain to spread northward across
the area this morning and then continue into tonight, with some
heavier pockets of rain possible tonight. Surface boundary will
remain south of the region today and then begin lifting northward
tonight. Models are indicating an increasing trend in elevated
instability tonight from south to north and as the front lifts
northward cannot rule out some stronger storms across the south
with the main threat being hail. SPC day 1 did push the Marginal
Risk area northward into our area based on this scenario.

With the clouds and rain, temperatures will be somewhat tricky with
the warmer readings today likely over central Missouri where it will
remain rain free the longest, but still cooler than the last few
days with highs in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Models offering a slightly better consensus for Saturday with warm
front lifting northward through the Ozarks. Best juxtaposition of
instabilities and wind shear will reside across the eastern
Ozarks, with both being sufficient for some strong to severe
storms during the afternoon and evening hours. Upper trough then
opens as it translates into Illinois late Saturday night and
Sunday. With its proximity to the area and weak troughing across
central and northern Missouri some lingering low probabilities of
mainly showers will persist into Sunday.

The remainder of the period from Monday through Thursday looks
relative quiet with surface high pressure and a general northwest
flow aloft. This will keep temperatures on the cool side with highs
generally in the 60s and lows in the 40s to around 50 Monday and
Tuesday and then warming back to near normal by Wednesday and
Thursday. There is no strong signal for any widespread rain or
thunderstorms at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Pilots can expect overall deteriorating flight conditions through
tonight as a storm system tracks into the region. Pilots can
expect variable ceilings with more widespead MVFR and IFR ceilings
tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will increase tonight as a warm
front lifts north into the region which will also reduce the
visibility at times. Ceilings will gradually rise Saturday as
cold front approaches from the west.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Foster




000
FXUS63 KSGF 291736
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1236 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Early this morning surface boundary extends from southwest Oklahoma
into northern Arkansas and far southeast Missouri. Low level jet had
increased across the Plains with showers over western Oklahoma into
south central Kansas and another area in southern Oklahoma.
Isentropic lift to the north of the boundary will strengthen and
overspread the region this morning as upper low begins to shift into
western Kansas later today. Expect rain to spread northward across
the area this morning and then continue into tonight, with some
heavier pockets of rain possible tonight. Surface boundary will
remain south of the region today and then begin lifting northward
tonight. Models are indicating an increasing trend in elevated
instability tonight from south to north and as the front lifts
northward cannot rule out some stronger storms across the south
with the main threat being hail. SPC day 1 did push the Marginal
Risk area northward into our area based on this scenario.

With the clouds and rain, temperatures will be somewhat tricky with
the warmer readings today likely over central Missouri where it will
remain rain free the longest, but still cooler than the last few
days with highs in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Models offering a slightly better consensus for Saturday with warm
front lifting northward through the Ozarks. Best juxtaposition of
instabilities and wind shear will reside across the eastern
Ozarks, with both being sufficient for some strong to severe
storms during the afternoon and evening hours. Upper trough then
opens as it translates into Illinois late Saturday night and
Sunday. With its proximity to the area and weak troughing across
central and northern Missouri some lingering low probabilities of
mainly showers will persist into Sunday.

The remainder of the period from Monday through Thursday looks
relative quiet with surface high pressure and a general northwest
flow aloft. This will keep temperatures on the cool side with highs
generally in the 60s and lows in the 40s to around 50 Monday and
Tuesday and then warming back to near normal by Wednesday and
Thursday. There is no strong signal for any widespread rain or
thunderstorms at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Pilots can expect overall deteriorating flight conditions through
tonight as a storm system tracks into the region. Pilots can
expect variable ceilings with more widespead MVFR and IFR ceilings
tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will increase tonight as a warm
front lifts north into the region which will also reduce the
visibility at times. Ceilings will gradually rise Saturday as
cold front approaches from the west.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Foster




000
FXUS63 KLSX 291228
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
728 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Mid and high clouds from next system already streaming across
forecast area early this morning. But with dry east flow at surface,
it will take some time for the moisture to return. Instability will
be marginal as well. So mainly showers and a few thunderstorms will
develop over southern/western Missouri and increase in coverage to
the northeast. Otherwise, temperatures will be near normal in the
low 60s to around 70 for highs.

Byrd

.LONG TERM...  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Models still have some placement issues with the area of low
pressure with the NAM further north than the GFS, and the ECMWF
somewhere in between. For now feel that warm front to develop and
lift north across forecast area tonight, stalling out along the
I70 corridor. Decent low level jet helping to bring in plenty of
moisture and will see elevated convection develop and track east
northeast across forecast area.

On Saturday, if system is further north we could see more of a
severe weather threat. With surface dewpts in the low to mid 60s,
will see surface based CAPES in excess of 2000 J/kg, but shear will
be weak. So SPC has placed areas along and south of I70 in a slight
risk for Saturday with the main threat being large hail.

All models are indicating closed upper level low to open up and lift
out late Saturday night and Sunday with rain coming to an end by
Sunday evening.

For the rest of the forecast period, it looks to be dry as a surface
ridge builds in. Will see some weak upper level shortwaves slide
across southern portions of the forecast area through this period,
but little in the way of precipitation is expected. Temperatures
will be a bit below normal on Monday, but expect highs in the low to
mid 70s by Wednesday and Thursday.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Upper lvl system over the 4 corners will eject ewrd this
aftn/evng. Ongoing convection across ern OK/wrn AR shud remain S
of the terminals thru the day tho the nthrn edge of this cluster
may come close to the STL metro sites as is passes. I delayed
onset of precip by 3-6 hrs. Overnight...beginning of precip may
be several hrs of --ra/sprinkles/widely scttrd --SHRAs. But
eventually more substantial SHRAs/TSTMs should dvlp and lift NE as
a warm front becomes aligned along US HWY 36 in MO and I72 in IL
by this evng. Occnl SHRAs/TSTMs are expected to continue until all
the activity lifts N Sat mrng. MVFR CIGs are expected to dvlp with
the heavier precip but flight conditions may become IFR in some of
the heavier cores.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR fcst thru 00Z. I delayed onset of precip by several hrs tho
very light VFR rain may dvlp this evng. Tried to cover this threat
with a VCSH group. Precip will become more widespread after
midnight...and continue in at least an occnl fashion until lifting
N Sat mrng. CIGs are expected to be VFR tonight but flight
conditions may drop to IFR in some of the heavier rain tongiht.

Miller

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis     70  58  74  56 /  20  80  80  50
Quincy          66  52  64  49 /  10  70  80  50
Columbia        67  56  74  52 /  40  80  60  50
Jefferson City  69  58  76  54 /  40  80  60  50
Salem           69  57  72  57 /  10  80  80  50
Farmington      68  57  76  56 /  40  80  70  50

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 291228
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
728 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Mid and high clouds from next system already streaming across
forecast area early this morning. But with dry east flow at surface,
it will take some time for the moisture to return. Instability will
be marginal as well. So mainly showers and a few thunderstorms will
develop over southern/western Missouri and increase in coverage to
the northeast. Otherwise, temperatures will be near normal in the
low 60s to around 70 for highs.

Byrd

.LONG TERM...  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Models still have some placement issues with the area of low
pressure with the NAM further north than the GFS, and the ECMWF
somewhere in between. For now feel that warm front to develop and
lift north across forecast area tonight, stalling out along the
I70 corridor. Decent low level jet helping to bring in plenty of
moisture and will see elevated convection develop and track east
northeast across forecast area.

On Saturday, if system is further north we could see more of a
severe weather threat. With surface dewpts in the low to mid 60s,
will see surface based CAPES in excess of 2000 J/kg, but shear will
be weak. So SPC has placed areas along and south of I70 in a slight
risk for Saturday with the main threat being large hail.

All models are indicating closed upper level low to open up and lift
out late Saturday night and Sunday with rain coming to an end by
Sunday evening.

For the rest of the forecast period, it looks to be dry as a surface
ridge builds in. Will see some weak upper level shortwaves slide
across southern portions of the forecast area through this period,
but little in the way of precipitation is expected. Temperatures
will be a bit below normal on Monday, but expect highs in the low to
mid 70s by Wednesday and Thursday.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Upper lvl system over the 4 corners will eject ewrd this
aftn/evng. Ongoing convection across ern OK/wrn AR shud remain S
of the terminals thru the day tho the nthrn edge of this cluster
may come close to the STL metro sites as is passes. I delayed
onset of precip by 3-6 hrs. Overnight...beginning of precip may
be several hrs of --ra/sprinkles/widely scttrd --SHRAs. But
eventually more substantial SHRAs/TSTMs should dvlp and lift NE as
a warm front becomes aligned along US HWY 36 in MO and I72 in IL
by this evng. Occnl SHRAs/TSTMs are expected to continue until all
the activity lifts N Sat mrng. MVFR CIGs are expected to dvlp with
the heavier precip but flight conditions may become IFR in some of
the heavier cores.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR fcst thru 00Z. I delayed onset of precip by several hrs tho
very light VFR rain may dvlp this evng. Tried to cover this threat
with a VCSH group. Precip will become more widespread after
midnight...and continue in at least an occnl fashion until lifting
N Sat mrng. CIGs are expected to be VFR tonight but flight
conditions may drop to IFR in some of the heavier rain tongiht.

Miller

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis     70  58  74  56 /  20  80  80  50
Quincy          66  52  64  49 /  10  70  80  50
Columbia        67  56  74  52 /  40  80  60  50
Jefferson City  69  58  76  54 /  40  80  60  50
Salem           69  57  72  57 /  10  80  80  50
Farmington      68  57  76  56 /  40  80  70  50

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KSGF 291149
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
649 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Early this morning surface boundary extends from southwest Oklahoma
into northern Arkansas and far southeast Missouri. Low level jet had
increased across the Plains with showers over western Oklahoma into
south central Kansas and another area in southern Oklahoma.
Isentropic lift to the north of the boundary will strengthen and
overspread the region this morning as upper low begins to shift into
western Kansas later today. Expect rain to spread northward across
the area this morning and then continue into tonight, with some
heavier pockets of rain possible tonight. Surface boundary will
remain south of the region today and then begin lifting northward
tonight. Models are indicating an increasing trend in elevated
instability tonight from south to north and as the front lifts
northward cannot rule out some stronger storms across the south
with the main threat being hail. SPC day 1 did push the Marginal
Risk area northward into our area based on this scenario.

With the clouds and rain, temperatures will be somewhat tricky with
the warmer readings today likely over central Missouri where it will
remain rain free the longest, but still cooler than the last few
days with highs in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Models offering a slightly better consensus for Saturday with warm
front lifting northward through the Ozarks. Best juxtaposition of
instabilities and wind shear will reside across the eastern
Ozarks, with both being sufficient for some strong to severe
storms during the afternoon and evening hours. Upper trough then
opens as it translates into Illinois late Saturday night and
Sunday. With its proximity to the area and weak troughing across
central and northern Missouri some lingering low probabilities of
mainly showers will persist into Sunday.

The remainder of the period from Monday through Thursday looks
relative quiet with surface high pressure and a general northwest
flow aloft. This will keep temperatures on the cool side with highs
generally in the 60s and lows in the 40s to around 50 Monday and
Tuesday and then warming back to near normal by Wednesday and
Thursday. There is no strong signal for any widespread rain or
thunderstorms at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: An area of rain with some embedded
thunder will move northeast into the region over the next couple
of hours. Expecting vfr ceilings for the most part early despite
the rain. However, as a warm front moves northward ceilings should
lower with most guidance gradually lowering into the mvfr after
18z then into ifr cat after 00z. Showers and thunderstorms will
increase in coverage over the last half of the taf period but
cannot be too precise with the timing just yet.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...DSA




000
FXUS63 KSGF 291149
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
649 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Early this morning surface boundary extends from southwest Oklahoma
into northern Arkansas and far southeast Missouri. Low level jet had
increased across the Plains with showers over western Oklahoma into
south central Kansas and another area in southern Oklahoma.
Isentropic lift to the north of the boundary will strengthen and
overspread the region this morning as upper low begins to shift into
western Kansas later today. Expect rain to spread northward across
the area this morning and then continue into tonight, with some
heavier pockets of rain possible tonight. Surface boundary will
remain south of the region today and then begin lifting northward
tonight. Models are indicating an increasing trend in elevated
instability tonight from south to north and as the front lifts
northward cannot rule out some stronger storms across the south
with the main threat being hail. SPC day 1 did push the Marginal
Risk area northward into our area based on this scenario.

With the clouds and rain, temperatures will be somewhat tricky with
the warmer readings today likely over central Missouri where it will
remain rain free the longest, but still cooler than the last few
days with highs in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Models offering a slightly better consensus for Saturday with warm
front lifting northward through the Ozarks. Best juxtaposition of
instabilities and wind shear will reside across the eastern
Ozarks, with both being sufficient for some strong to severe
storms during the afternoon and evening hours. Upper trough then
opens as it translates into Illinois late Saturday night and
Sunday. With its proximity to the area and weak troughing across
central and northern Missouri some lingering low probabilities of
mainly showers will persist into Sunday.

The remainder of the period from Monday through Thursday looks
relative quiet with surface high pressure and a general northwest
flow aloft. This will keep temperatures on the cool side with highs
generally in the 60s and lows in the 40s to around 50 Monday and
Tuesday and then warming back to near normal by Wednesday and
Thursday. There is no strong signal for any widespread rain or
thunderstorms at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: An area of rain with some embedded
thunder will move northeast into the region over the next couple
of hours. Expecting vfr ceilings for the most part early despite
the rain. However, as a warm front moves northward ceilings should
lower with most guidance gradually lowering into the mvfr after
18z then into ifr cat after 00z. Showers and thunderstorms will
increase in coverage over the last half of the taf period but
cannot be too precise with the timing just yet.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...DSA




000
FXUS63 KEAX 291137
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
637 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 348 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

Large trough of low pressure continues to spin across the Great Basin
and Desert Southwest this morning...with well-established southwest
flow prevailing downstream across the Plains and into the Lower
Missouri Vly. Along the surface...latest analysis places a nearly
stationary frontal boundary across the Red Rvr Vly with eastward
extension into the ARKLATEX region. Lead impulse embedded in
southwest flow aloft is combining with the 850-hPa front to result in
light rain shwrs across western portions of the fcst area...with MCI
now reporting light rain per the 08z observation. In reality...this
area of light rain will be short-lived as lead impulse shifts away
from the area.

For the remainder of today...expect increasing cloud cover as upper
trough shifts east and sfc front to our south begins to lift north
with time. As such...precip chances will again increase from south to
the north during the late afternoon hrs with activity becoming more
widespread heading into the evening and overnight hrs as main trough
ejects east and takes on a negative tilt across the central High
Plains. In terms on thunder potential...quick look at several
forecast soundings reveals little in the way of instability
today...thus have capped mention of thunder in the isolated category.
The potential looks a little better overnight as elevated
instability of a couple hundred joules develops...however no severe
weather is anticipated. With increasing cloud cover...expect daytime
highs to top out in the mid to upper 60s with values only falling
into the mid to upper 50s tonight.

On Saturday...main upper low expected to slowly meander across the
central High Plains with main surface low becoming occluded with
time. As the sfc low occludes...main frontal boundary will lift north
to the I-70 corridor by afternoon. Decent heating by afternoon south
of the boundary combined with steep lapse rates will lead to moderate
instability by afternoon...with severe concerns once again returning
to portions of the area. Main caveat going forward which could limit
the degree of storm coverage will be lack of strong mid/upper-level
forcing as main 500-hPa low remains well west and southern stream jet
remains across the the Arkansas/western Tennessee region.
Additionally...much of our area will be in subsidence through a good
portion of the day as main shortwave responsible for tonight`s
activity lifts north into the upper Miss Vly with time. In any
event...cannot rule out some isolated storms capable of large hail if
frontal convergence can initiate activity...however better threat for
severe will reside south and east of the fcst area in closer
proximity to main upper jet.

Main wave to finally start moving east trough the area on Sunday as
500 hPa circulation gets picked up be a trough moving through the
upper Midwest/western Great Lakes. This should gradually allow rain
chances to come to an end by the end of the weekend with dry weather
and warming temps then expected through much of next week. No real
weather makers of interest seen in the latest model runs through the
extended as western U.S. ridging slowly builds east with time.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 637 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

CIGS beginning to lower into the MVFR category this morning as low-
level moisture advances south in northeast flow near the surface.
Expect MVFR cigs to be around for much of the morning before
temporarily improving near the 18z time frame. After this...initial
batch of light shwr activity will begin working into the area this
afternoon with periodic MVFR cigs possible with this activity.
Shwr activity to become more widespread during the evening and
overnight hrs with thunder chances also increasing as instability
develops aloft. After 06z...IFR conditions will be possible at all
fcst locations as cigs potentially fall below alternate mins from
time to time.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...32




000
FXUS63 KEAX 290848
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
348 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 348 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

Large trough of low pressure continues to spin across the Great Basin
and Desert Southwest this morning...with well-established southwest
flow prevailing downstream across the Plains and into the Lower
Missouri Vly. Along the surface...latest analysis places a nearly
stationary frontal boundary across the Red Rvr Vly with eastward
extension into the ARKLATEX region. Lead impulse embedded in
southwest flow aloft is combining with the 850-hPa front to result in
light rain shwrs across western portions of the fcst area...with MCI
now reporting light rain per the 08z observation. In reality...this
area of light rain will be short-lived as lead impulse shifts away
from the area.

For the remainder of today...expect increasing cloud cover as upper
trough shifts east and sfc front to our south begins to lift north
with time. As such...precip chances will again increase from south to
the north during the late afternoon hrs with activity becoming more
widespread heading into the evening and overnight hrs as main trough
ejects east and takes on a negative tilt across the central High
Plains. In terms on thunder potential...quick look at several
forecast soundings reveals little in the way of instability
today...thus have capped mention of thunder in the isolated category.
The potential looks a little better overnight as elevated
instability of a couple hundred joules develops...however no severe
weather is anticipated. With increasing cloud cover...expect daytime
highs to top out in the mid to upper 60s with values only falling
into the mid to upper 50s tonight.

On Saturday...main upper low expected to slowly meander across the
central High Plains with main surface low becoming occluded with
time. As the sfc low occludes...main frontal boundary will lift north
to the I-70 corridor by afternoon. Decent heating by afternoon south
of the boundary combined with steep lapse rates will lead to moderate
instability by afternoon...with severe concerns once again returning
to portions of the area. Main caveat going forward which could limit
the degree of storm coverage will be lack of strong mid/upper-level
forcing as main 500-hPa low remains well west and southern stream jet
remains across the the Arkansas/western Tennessee region.
Additionally...much of our area will be in subsidence through a good
portion of the day as main shortwave responsible for tonight`s
activity lifts north into the upper Miss Vly with time. In any
event...cannot rule out some isolated storms capable of large hail if
frontal convergence can initiate activity...however better threat for
severe will reside south and east of the fcst area in closer
proximity to main upper jet.

Main wave to finally start moving east trough the area on Sunday as
500 hPa circulation gets picked up be a trough moving through the
upper Midwest/western Great Lakes. This should gradually allow rain
chances to come to an end by the end of the weekend with dry weather
and warming temps then expected through much of next week. No real
weather makers of interest seen in the latest model runs through the
extended as western U.S. ridging slowly builds east with time.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

Stratus will linger over northern MO for a few more hours, then
should gradually fall apart and lift to the northeast, bringing all
TAF sites to VFR shortly after 06z. Broken midlevel stratus will
stream over the region tonight, but may break up a bit especially
during the afternoon, and will remain at or above 6-8 kft. Showers
and perhaps some embedded thunder, accompanied by lower ceilings,
will gradually build in from the south after 00z Saturday, impacting
all TAF sites prior to 06z.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...Laflin




000
FXUS63 KLSX 290817
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
317 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Mid and high clouds from next system already streaming across
forecast area early this morning. But with dry east flow at surface,
it will take some time for the moisture to return. Instability will
be marginal as well. So mainly showers and a few thunderstorms will
develop over southern/western Missouri and increase in coverage to
the northeast. Otherwise, temperatures will be near normal in the
low 60s to around 70 for highs.

Byrd

.LONG TERM...  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Models still have some placement issues with the area of low
pressure with the NAM further north than the GFS, and the ECMWF
somewhere in between. For now feel that warm front to develop and
lift north across forecast area tonight, stalling out along the
I70 corridor. Decent low level jet helping to bring in plenty of
moisture and will see elevated convection develop and track east
northeast across forecast area.

On Saturday, if system is further north we could see more of a
severe weather threat. With surface dewpts in the low to mid 60s,
will see surface based CAPES in excess of 2000 J/kg, but shear will
be weak. So SPC has placed areas along and south of I70 in a slight
risk for Saturday with the main threat being large hail.

All models are indicating closed upper level low to open up and lift
out late Saturday night and Sunday with rain coming to an end by
Sunday evening.

For the rest of the forecast period, it looks to be dry as a surface
ridge builds in. Will see some weak upper level shortwaves slide
across southern portions of the forecast area through this period,
but little in the way of precipitation is expected. Temperatures
will be a bit below normal on Monday, but expect highs in the low to
mid 70s by Wednesday and Thursday.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1101 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

The low level cloudiness over UIN has been shifting slowly
northward this evening and may actually clear out of UIN, at
least briefly overnight. May have a period of MVFR cigs early
Friday morning at UIN. Further south, just high level cloudiness
will spread into the taf sites late tonight. VFR, low-mid level
cloudiness will move into COU and the St Louis metro area by
Friday afternoon as moisture spreads into the area ahead of an
approaching storm system in the southern Plains and north of a
warm front. Showers may move into COU and the St Louis metro area
as early as Friday afternoon, but more likely Friday evening. Cigs
and vsbys may lower into the MVFR category Friday evening with
these showers and as the low levels saturate. Weak northwest
surface winds will veer around to an easterly direction by Friday
afternoon as they gradually strengthen.

Specifics for KSTL: Light surface wind will gradually veer around
to an easterly direction and increase to around 8-10 kts Friday
afternoon. Just some high level clouds spreading into STL late
tonight and Friday morning, then the cloud ceiling will gradually
lower Friday afternoon and night as showers move into STL late
Friday afternoon or evening. Cigs and vsbys will lower into the
MVFR category Friday night.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis     70  58  74  56 /  20  80  80  50
Quincy          66  52  64  49 /  10  70  80  50
Columbia        67  56  74  52 /  40  80  60  50
Jefferson City  69  58  76  54 /  40  80  60  50
Salem           69  57  72  57 /  10  80  80  50
Farmington      68  57  76  56 /  40  80  70  50

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$
WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KSGF 290810
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
310 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Early this morning surface boundary extends from southwest Oklahoma
into northern Arkansas and far southeast Missouri. Low level jet had
increased across the Plains with showers over western Oklahoma into
south central Kansas and another area in southern Oklahoma.
Isentropic lift to the north of the boundary will strengthen and
overspread the region this morning as upper low begins to shift into
western Kansas later today. Expect rain to spread northward across
the area this morning and then continue into tonight, with some
heavier pockets of rain possible tonight. Surface boundary will
remain south of the region today and then begin lifting northward
tonight. Models are indicating an increasing trend in elevated
instability tonight from south to north and as the front lifts
northward cannot rule out some stronger storms across the south
with the main threat being hail. SPC day 1 did push the Marginal
Risk area northward into our area based on this scenario.

With the clouds and rain, temperatures will be somewhat tricky with
the warmer readings today likely over central Missouri where it will
remain rain free the longest, but still cooler than the last few
days with highs in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Models offering a slightly better consensus for Saturday with warm
front lifting northward through the Ozarks. Best juxtaposition of
instabilities and wind shear will reside across the eastern
Ozarks, with both being sufficient for some strong to severe
storms during the afternoon and evening hours. Upper trough then
opens as it translates into Illinois late Saturday night and
Sunday. With its proximity to the area and weak troughing across
central and northern Missouri some lingering low probabilities of
mainly showers will persist into Sunday.

The remainder of the period from Monday through Thursday looks
relative quiet with surface high pressure and a general northwest
flow aloft. This will keep temperatures on the cool side with highs
generally in the 60s and lows in the 40s to around 50 Monday and
Tuesday and then warming back to near normal by Wednesday and
Thursday. There is no strong signal for any widespread rain or
thunderstorms at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

VFR conditions will continue overnight with broken high clouds and
light northeast surface winds.

A low pressure system will then approach the area on Friday with
rain showers overspreading the region starting in the morning. A
few thunderstorms are likely by the afternoon, but coverage is
expected to be too limited to include in the TAFs.

Ceilings will lower throughout the day with MVFR predominantly
expected by the afternoon. IFR conditions appear increasingly
likely around Branson.

Surface winds will increase out of the east on Friday with low
level wind shear conditions developing in the evening.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Schaumann




000
FXUS63 KSGF 290448
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1148 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

After a temporary break in the active weather an increasing
chance for showers and thunderstorms will return Friday as a broad
upper level trough comes across the southern Rockies.

A backing and increasingly diffluent flow will along with
strengthening isentropic upglide will cause elevated convection to
break out across southern and portions of the central plains
through tonight. This activity will migrate northward into the
Ozarks region heading into Friday morning with an increasing
coverage through the day. Expect rather widespread showers and
embedded thunderstorms. Marginal instability will preclude any
threat of severe storms Friday but lightning and locally heavy
rainfall.

The showers and embedded storms will persist into Friday night as
the upper level system pushes slowly east. The associated warm
front will be lifting north toward the area as surface
cyclogenesis takes place across the Plains. The progression of
this warm front and evolution will have to be monitored as it will
impact the potential for stronger storms.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

The warm front will lift north into the region Saturday as the
upper level trough edges eastward into the Plains. Models differ
on the placement of the developing surface low and warm front. The
WRF suggest the warm sector spreads into the Ozarks region
Saturday which would pose a conditional risk for severe weather.
In any event scattered showers and storms are expected Saturday
but the potential for severe storms will have to be monitored.

The upper level trough will fill and make its way east across the
central U.S. on Sunday. This will maintain considerable cloud
cover and possibly some lingering showers.

Another upper level trough is progged to slide east and southeast
from the Rockies early next week. This system will track farther
south but could bring scattered showers to far southern Missouri
on Tuesday.

Looks like mostly dry weather will transpire during the middle and
later part of the week but models differ on the strength of the
upper level ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

VFR conditions will continue overnight with broken high clouds and
light northeast surface winds.

A low pressure system will then approach the area on Friday with
rain showers overspreading the region starting in the morning. A
few thunderstorms are likely by the afternoon, but coverage is
expected to be too limited to include in the TAFs.

Ceilings will lower throughout the day with MVFR predominantly
expected by the afternoon. IFR conditions appear increasingly
likely around Branson.

Surface winds will increase out of the east on Friday with low
level wind shear conditions developing in the evening.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Schaumann




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities