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000
FXUS63 KEAX 291133
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
533 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 344 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Early morning satellite showing low stratus descending upon the
region in developing cold air advection behind this morning/s cold
front. Latest obs from across the region showing gusts will into the
lower to mid 30 kt range...with KIXD reporting a 43 kt gust this
past hr. Latest MSAS pressure change product showing max pressure
rise couplet working into northwest MO this morning...which will keep
things rather blustery this morning before winds begin to die down later
this afternoon. Otherwise...noticeably cooler today with highs
ranging from the middle 40s west of Route 65 to low 40s further
east.

After the skies clear later this afternoon...high pressure set to
arrive during the overnight period tonight. Its arrival will ensure
dry and continued seasonable temperatures through Friday with highs
likely climbing into the lower 40s across much of the area. High
pressure will begin sliding east into the lower Ohio Valley Friday
night which should allow for the re-establishment of return flow
across the Nation/s midsection. Meanwhile to our west...attention
will begin to focus on a southern stream upper low across Baja
California in developing split flow aloft. With time...energy from
this feature will begin to slowly track to the east which combined
with decent return flow from the Gulf and additional northern stream
energy arriving from our northwest...will set the stage for
developing precipitation across the Lwr Missouri Vly this weekend.

It should be stated right up front...this weekend/s forecast remains
marginal at best as models have had a very difficult time converging
on any one particular solution. That said...this morning/s suite has
come in more optimistic for measurable snowfall Saturday night and
Sunday as colder air settles south across our region behind a strong
cold front set to arrive Saturday evening. Meanwhile...main storm
system will be the southern stream disturbance which will advect
plenty of moisture northward into the cold front as it moves south
across our region Saturday night. This combined with what appears to
be very favorable positioning under the right entrance region of a
strengthening northern stream jetstreak across the western Great
Lakes/upper Midwest...and decent mid-level frontogenesis along/north
of said front in tightening mid-level flow aloft...should provide
plenty of synoptic scale forcing to support potentially long lived
precipitation. In fact...models even suggest a possible coupled jet
on Sunday as a southern stream jet begins to lift northeast along the
eastern periphery of main digging trough across the Plains.

So for now...expect precip to begin working into the area early
Saturday morning as an inverted trough axis extends north into the
the area in developing warm air advection. Thermal profiles suggest
precip through much of the day will be in liquid form...however a mix
with snow will be possible in the morning hrs. Heading into the
overnight period...much colder air behind the southward sagging front
will result in a quick changeover to all snow with precip possibly
increasing in intensity as upper jet strengthens and northern and
southern stream energy reservoirs begin to interact/consolidate over
the southern Plains. After this occurs...main sfc low to slowly
track from eastern TX into the lower Miss Rvr Vly/Deep South through
the day on Sunday. This should result in precip gradually coming to
an end from west to east by Sunday afternoon. In terms of
accumulations...pretty hard to hang your hat on anything right now.
What is for certain is that system should have plenty of moisture to
work with thanks to re-established return flow from the Gulf. What
may be poor snow to liquid ratios early on Sat evening will only
increase into Sunday morning as colder air continues to infiltrate
the Lwr Missouri Vly. If everything occurs as advertised this
morning...advisory level snowfalls could be possible. That said
however...confidence as stated above is marginal at best based on
model inconsistency. If nothing less...weekend storm system is definitely
worth keeping an eye on.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Sunday night the upper level trough that brought the rain and snow
to the area Saturday through Sunday will finally shift east of the
area taking precipitation with it. Behind the upper level trough,
cold surface high pressure will build into the area bringing some on
the coldest temperatures we have experience since the second week of
January with lows in the single digits to mid teens Sunday night.
High pressure will remain in control over the area on Monday with
cold northwest flow aloft. This will keep highs on Monday 10 to 15
degrees below normal for the Groundhog with highs in the mid 20s to
lower 30s.

Temperatures look to moderate through midweek, returning to near
normal, as northwest flow aloft relaxes. However, models are
indicating that a few fast moving shortwaves will move
through the region during the Tuesday to Wednesday time frame.
Models have not resolved the temporal and spatial issues with these
shortwaves however, it does warrant slight chance POPs during the
period with the northern CWA having the best chance for seeing
precipitation which would be in the form of light snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 529 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR cigs well entrenched over area terminals this morning. Look for
MVFR restrictions to hang around much of the day before clouds begin
to scatter late today when drier air works into the area. The other
main story will be strong northerly winds which will also prevail
much of the day. Look for gusts as high as 30 kts this morning before
winds slowly subside later on this afternoon. Much drier air should
begin to work into the area later tonight which will lead to gradual
clearing during the evening hrs.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KEAX 291133
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
533 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 344 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Early morning satellite showing low stratus descending upon the
region in developing cold air advection behind this morning/s cold
front. Latest obs from across the region showing gusts will into the
lower to mid 30 kt range...with KIXD reporting a 43 kt gust this
past hr. Latest MSAS pressure change product showing max pressure
rise couplet working into northwest MO this morning...which will keep
things rather blustery this morning before winds begin to die down later
this afternoon. Otherwise...noticeably cooler today with highs
ranging from the middle 40s west of Route 65 to low 40s further
east.

After the skies clear later this afternoon...high pressure set to
arrive during the overnight period tonight. Its arrival will ensure
dry and continued seasonable temperatures through Friday with highs
likely climbing into the lower 40s across much of the area. High
pressure will begin sliding east into the lower Ohio Valley Friday
night which should allow for the re-establishment of return flow
across the Nation/s midsection. Meanwhile to our west...attention
will begin to focus on a southern stream upper low across Baja
California in developing split flow aloft. With time...energy from
this feature will begin to slowly track to the east which combined
with decent return flow from the Gulf and additional northern stream
energy arriving from our northwest...will set the stage for
developing precipitation across the Lwr Missouri Vly this weekend.

It should be stated right up front...this weekend/s forecast remains
marginal at best as models have had a very difficult time converging
on any one particular solution. That said...this morning/s suite has
come in more optimistic for measurable snowfall Saturday night and
Sunday as colder air settles south across our region behind a strong
cold front set to arrive Saturday evening. Meanwhile...main storm
system will be the southern stream disturbance which will advect
plenty of moisture northward into the cold front as it moves south
across our region Saturday night. This combined with what appears to
be very favorable positioning under the right entrance region of a
strengthening northern stream jetstreak across the western Great
Lakes/upper Midwest...and decent mid-level frontogenesis along/north
of said front in tightening mid-level flow aloft...should provide
plenty of synoptic scale forcing to support potentially long lived
precipitation. In fact...models even suggest a possible coupled jet
on Sunday as a southern stream jet begins to lift northeast along the
eastern periphery of main digging trough across the Plains.

So for now...expect precip to begin working into the area early
Saturday morning as an inverted trough axis extends north into the
the area in developing warm air advection. Thermal profiles suggest
precip through much of the day will be in liquid form...however a mix
with snow will be possible in the morning hrs. Heading into the
overnight period...much colder air behind the southward sagging front
will result in a quick changeover to all snow with precip possibly
increasing in intensity as upper jet strengthens and northern and
southern stream energy reservoirs begin to interact/consolidate over
the southern Plains. After this occurs...main sfc low to slowly
track from eastern TX into the lower Miss Rvr Vly/Deep South through
the day on Sunday. This should result in precip gradually coming to
an end from west to east by Sunday afternoon. In terms of
accumulations...pretty hard to hang your hat on anything right now.
What is for certain is that system should have plenty of moisture to
work with thanks to re-established return flow from the Gulf. What
may be poor snow to liquid ratios early on Sat evening will only
increase into Sunday morning as colder air continues to infiltrate
the Lwr Missouri Vly. If everything occurs as advertised this
morning...advisory level snowfalls could be possible. That said
however...confidence as stated above is marginal at best based on
model inconsistency. If nothing less...weekend storm system is definitely
worth keeping an eye on.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Sunday night the upper level trough that brought the rain and snow
to the area Saturday through Sunday will finally shift east of the
area taking precipitation with it. Behind the upper level trough,
cold surface high pressure will build into the area bringing some on
the coldest temperatures we have experience since the second week of
January with lows in the single digits to mid teens Sunday night.
High pressure will remain in control over the area on Monday with
cold northwest flow aloft. This will keep highs on Monday 10 to 15
degrees below normal for the Groundhog with highs in the mid 20s to
lower 30s.

Temperatures look to moderate through midweek, returning to near
normal, as northwest flow aloft relaxes. However, models are
indicating that a few fast moving shortwaves will move
through the region during the Tuesday to Wednesday time frame.
Models have not resolved the temporal and spatial issues with these
shortwaves however, it does warrant slight chance POPs during the
period with the northern CWA having the best chance for seeing
precipitation which would be in the form of light snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 529 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR cigs well entrenched over area terminals this morning. Look for
MVFR restrictions to hang around much of the day before clouds begin
to scatter late today when drier air works into the area. The other
main story will be strong northerly winds which will also prevail
much of the day. Look for gusts as high as 30 kts this morning before
winds slowly subside later on this afternoon. Much drier air should
begin to work into the area later tonight which will lead to gradual
clearing during the evening hrs.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...32





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000
FXUS63 KSGF 291127
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
527 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 230 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Temperatures were still unseasonably mild early this morning
across the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas with
readings still from the low 50s to around 60. A cold front was in
the process of pushing into the area with a northwest wind edging
into the western CWA as of 2 am. A large low level cloud shield
was quickly tracking southeast behind the front and area of low
pressure and is expected to influence much of the CWA today. Near
term focus will be with the clouds and expected temperatures today.

Main focus thereafter will be with the storm system to affect the
region this weekend and the potential for some wintry weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Clouds were quickly streaming southeast across northwest Missouri
and should start to move into the forecast area by sunrise,
continuing to spread southeast across the area during the morning.
Low level RH SREF progs handle this pretty well and keep cloud
cover in much of the day with some clearing by late in the day and
early evening from west to east. An upper level shortwave will
drop southeast through the area today and will drive a colder air
mass into the region. The clouds combined with the cold air
advection will lead to little temperature rise after the sun comes
up this morning. It will be much colder tonight than what we are
currently experiencing with lows by Friday morning in the mid 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Southern stream upper level system will begin to push into
southern California and the Baja region later tonight and on
Friday. A closed low will develop with this system and ridging out
ahead of it in the southern into central Plains on Friday. The
closed low is expected to remain well to the southwest through the
weekend, but a northern stream shortwave will dive into the
northern Plains on Saturday and will probably start to see some
warm air advection precipitation develop over the area, from west
to east with good southwest flow aloft over the area in advance of
the upper low and a Gulf moisture feed at 850 mb. Precipitation
may begin out west on late Friday night or Saturday morning as a
mix of rain/snow, but should turn to all rain during the day as
temperatures warm into the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Upper energy and frontal system will move into the area Saturday
night with best chances of precipitation Saturday night into
Sunday morning across the area. Temperatures are expected to cool
enough for some snowfall, especially in the northern 1/3 to 1/2 of
the CWA where a few inches of snow is expected at this time.
Further south, the rain will likely hold on a bit longer and the
transition to snow will be later so the further south the lesser
snow amounts are expected. Being that we will be in the transition
zone and models are still varying quite a bit with the thermal
profiles, the snow amounts will likely change over the next couple
of days.

Much colder air will push into the area behind this system Sunday
night and will likely see temperatures dip into the teens to low
20s with highs on Monday only in the mid 20s to around freezing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect MVFR ceilings this morning. A stratus deck was moving in
from the northwest, in response to a passing cold front. 2,000 ft
ceilings will spread across the entire area.

By early to mid afternoon, the stratus deck will exit southwest
Missouri, bringing VFR conditions back to our airports.

Northwest surface winds will become gusty today. Gusts will range
from 17 to 25 knots. These winds will lighten up late this
afternoon, but remain from the north through tonight.

No obstructions to visibilities are forecasted at this time.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Cramer






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000
FXUS63 KLSX 291045
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
445 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 343 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

Observational data at 08z indicated a low pressure area over
northwest IL with a cold front extending to the southwest of it thru
UIN and COU.  A warm front extended from near UIN southeastward thru
southern IL.  Temps have stayed up or risen into the 50s in the warm
sector of this system, and then have plunged into the 30s quickly
behind the cold front in IA and far northwest MO.  Satellite data
shows low clouds move in shortly after cold frontal passage with
plenty more where they came from over the Upper Midwest and northern
Plains.  Radar data shows generally echo-free mosaics over our
region but some obs at ground level have indicated spotty sprinkles
or drizzle underneath the low cloud shield that moves in.
Otherwise, an upper level disturbance was over northern MO early
this morning with another further upstream over eastern SD--all part
of the northwest flow aloft that is in place.

The cold front will push thru the forecast area by 15z with low
clouds to then inundate and persist for the remainder of the day.
Some clearing is then expected in central MO late, possibly
spreading eastward into tonight.  High temperatures for the day,
technically, will all be hit early this morning.  But for daytime
purposes, we should see near steady temps after the initial fall
shortly after frontal passage.  This favors at or below the coolest
MOS for most locales, except near the front after daybreak for areas
south and east of STL metro, where the warmer MAV MOS will probably
work out better given the gradient.

Pcpn will be a tough call today since there is not much to latch on
to and radar is having a tough time picking it up.  Added some
scattered sprinkles or flurries for northern MO and central IL thru
this morning where it looks like there will be some better upper
level support and lift as well as low level convergence.  These
should all be significantly reduced by 18z and have kept the
afternoon pcpn-free.

TES

.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

Surface ridge to build into the region tonight with northwest winds
gradually diminishing. Colder air to filter in with lows in the low
to mid 20s.

On Friday, mostly sunny skies to prevail but temperatures will only
rise into the low 30s east to low 40s west.

Surface ridge to move off to the east late Friday night allowing
southerly winds to return once again ahead of next weather system.
However, lows will still be in the 20s Friday night.

As for next weather system, models still have differences with
placement and timing of frontal boundary. NAM is the slowest and
warmest initially while the GFS and ECMWF are a bit faster and
colder. Will side more with GFS/ECMWF solutions, with precipitation
beginning during the day Saturday and spreading east. It will begin
as a mix of rain and snow, transition to mostly rain briefly during
the afternoon hours with highs in the low 40s. Then as colder air
filters in rather quickly, precipitation to change to all snow
everywhere just after 00z Sunday. As for precipitation amounts, both
the GFS and ECMWF 00z Thursday runs are showing highest values along
the I-70 corridor. However, since there continues to be plenty of
model differences with this storm, it is difficult to determine
snowfall amounts and where the maximum axis of snow will occur. For
now it still does appear that at least a portion of our forecast
area will see accumulating snow Saturday night and Sunday.

Beyond that, the precipitation will come to an end Sunday night with
colder air filtering in and temperatures at or below normal for the
rest of the forecast period. Extended models do indicate a clipper
system will slide through Tuesday night and Wednesday with most of
the energy to the north of the forecast area, so kept slight chance
pops through the period.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 445 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

Strong gusty NW winds and MVFR CIGs will be the rule for today for
all TAF sites. While there will be a tendency for CIGs to be below
2000 ft this morning, they should bump up to the 2000-3000 ft
range this afternoon before lowering again some tonight. There is
increasing indications that tonight the clouds will hang in for
much of the night, with some clearing potential from the north
late. Gusts should also diminish this evening. Some potential for
sprinkles or flurries for UIN early this morning but spotty nature
of pcpn will probably preclude any mention in the TAF.

Specifics for KSTL: gusty NW winds and MVFR CIGs will prevail
today with diminishing winds and persistent MVFR CIGs tonight.
It now looks like clearing will occur around daybreak Friday from
the north.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 291045
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
445 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 343 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

Observational data at 08z indicated a low pressure area over
northwest IL with a cold front extending to the southwest of it thru
UIN and COU.  A warm front extended from near UIN southeastward thru
southern IL.  Temps have stayed up or risen into the 50s in the warm
sector of this system, and then have plunged into the 30s quickly
behind the cold front in IA and far northwest MO.  Satellite data
shows low clouds move in shortly after cold frontal passage with
plenty more where they came from over the Upper Midwest and northern
Plains.  Radar data shows generally echo-free mosaics over our
region but some obs at ground level have indicated spotty sprinkles
or drizzle underneath the low cloud shield that moves in.
Otherwise, an upper level disturbance was over northern MO early
this morning with another further upstream over eastern SD--all part
of the northwest flow aloft that is in place.

The cold front will push thru the forecast area by 15z with low
clouds to then inundate and persist for the remainder of the day.
Some clearing is then expected in central MO late, possibly
spreading eastward into tonight.  High temperatures for the day,
technically, will all be hit early this morning.  But for daytime
purposes, we should see near steady temps after the initial fall
shortly after frontal passage.  This favors at or below the coolest
MOS for most locales, except near the front after daybreak for areas
south and east of STL metro, where the warmer MAV MOS will probably
work out better given the gradient.

Pcpn will be a tough call today since there is not much to latch on
to and radar is having a tough time picking it up.  Added some
scattered sprinkles or flurries for northern MO and central IL thru
this morning where it looks like there will be some better upper
level support and lift as well as low level convergence.  These
should all be significantly reduced by 18z and have kept the
afternoon pcpn-free.

TES

.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

Surface ridge to build into the region tonight with northwest winds
gradually diminishing. Colder air to filter in with lows in the low
to mid 20s.

On Friday, mostly sunny skies to prevail but temperatures will only
rise into the low 30s east to low 40s west.

Surface ridge to move off to the east late Friday night allowing
southerly winds to return once again ahead of next weather system.
However, lows will still be in the 20s Friday night.

As for next weather system, models still have differences with
placement and timing of frontal boundary. NAM is the slowest and
warmest initially while the GFS and ECMWF are a bit faster and
colder. Will side more with GFS/ECMWF solutions, with precipitation
beginning during the day Saturday and spreading east. It will begin
as a mix of rain and snow, transition to mostly rain briefly during
the afternoon hours with highs in the low 40s. Then as colder air
filters in rather quickly, precipitation to change to all snow
everywhere just after 00z Sunday. As for precipitation amounts, both
the GFS and ECMWF 00z Thursday runs are showing highest values along
the I-70 corridor. However, since there continues to be plenty of
model differences with this storm, it is difficult to determine
snowfall amounts and where the maximum axis of snow will occur. For
now it still does appear that at least a portion of our forecast
area will see accumulating snow Saturday night and Sunday.

Beyond that, the precipitation will come to an end Sunday night with
colder air filtering in and temperatures at or below normal for the
rest of the forecast period. Extended models do indicate a clipper
system will slide through Tuesday night and Wednesday with most of
the energy to the north of the forecast area, so kept slight chance
pops through the period.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 445 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

Strong gusty NW winds and MVFR CIGs will be the rule for today for
all TAF sites. While there will be a tendency for CIGs to be below
2000 ft this morning, they should bump up to the 2000-3000 ft
range this afternoon before lowering again some tonight. There is
increasing indications that tonight the clouds will hang in for
much of the night, with some clearing potential from the north
late. Gusts should also diminish this evening. Some potential for
sprinkles or flurries for UIN early this morning but spotty nature
of pcpn will probably preclude any mention in the TAF.

Specifics for KSTL: gusty NW winds and MVFR CIGs will prevail
today with diminishing winds and persistent MVFR CIGs tonight.
It now looks like clearing will occur around daybreak Friday from
the north.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 291045
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
445 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 343 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

Observational data at 08z indicated a low pressure area over
northwest IL with a cold front extending to the southwest of it thru
UIN and COU.  A warm front extended from near UIN southeastward thru
southern IL.  Temps have stayed up or risen into the 50s in the warm
sector of this system, and then have plunged into the 30s quickly
behind the cold front in IA and far northwest MO.  Satellite data
shows low clouds move in shortly after cold frontal passage with
plenty more where they came from over the Upper Midwest and northern
Plains.  Radar data shows generally echo-free mosaics over our
region but some obs at ground level have indicated spotty sprinkles
or drizzle underneath the low cloud shield that moves in.
Otherwise, an upper level disturbance was over northern MO early
this morning with another further upstream over eastern SD--all part
of the northwest flow aloft that is in place.

The cold front will push thru the forecast area by 15z with low
clouds to then inundate and persist for the remainder of the day.
Some clearing is then expected in central MO late, possibly
spreading eastward into tonight.  High temperatures for the day,
technically, will all be hit early this morning.  But for daytime
purposes, we should see near steady temps after the initial fall
shortly after frontal passage.  This favors at or below the coolest
MOS for most locales, except near the front after daybreak for areas
south and east of STL metro, where the warmer MAV MOS will probably
work out better given the gradient.

Pcpn will be a tough call today since there is not much to latch on
to and radar is having a tough time picking it up.  Added some
scattered sprinkles or flurries for northern MO and central IL thru
this morning where it looks like there will be some better upper
level support and lift as well as low level convergence.  These
should all be significantly reduced by 18z and have kept the
afternoon pcpn-free.

TES

.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

Surface ridge to build into the region tonight with northwest winds
gradually diminishing. Colder air to filter in with lows in the low
to mid 20s.

On Friday, mostly sunny skies to prevail but temperatures will only
rise into the low 30s east to low 40s west.

Surface ridge to move off to the east late Friday night allowing
southerly winds to return once again ahead of next weather system.
However, lows will still be in the 20s Friday night.

As for next weather system, models still have differences with
placement and timing of frontal boundary. NAM is the slowest and
warmest initially while the GFS and ECMWF are a bit faster and
colder. Will side more with GFS/ECMWF solutions, with precipitation
beginning during the day Saturday and spreading east. It will begin
as a mix of rain and snow, transition to mostly rain briefly during
the afternoon hours with highs in the low 40s. Then as colder air
filters in rather quickly, precipitation to change to all snow
everywhere just after 00z Sunday. As for precipitation amounts, both
the GFS and ECMWF 00z Thursday runs are showing highest values along
the I-70 corridor. However, since there continues to be plenty of
model differences with this storm, it is difficult to determine
snowfall amounts and where the maximum axis of snow will occur. For
now it still does appear that at least a portion of our forecast
area will see accumulating snow Saturday night and Sunday.

Beyond that, the precipitation will come to an end Sunday night with
colder air filtering in and temperatures at or below normal for the
rest of the forecast period. Extended models do indicate a clipper
system will slide through Tuesday night and Wednesday with most of
the energy to the north of the forecast area, so kept slight chance
pops through the period.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 445 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

Strong gusty NW winds and MVFR CIGs will be the rule for today for
all TAF sites. While there will be a tendency for CIGs to be below
2000 ft this morning, they should bump up to the 2000-3000 ft
range this afternoon before lowering again some tonight. There is
increasing indications that tonight the clouds will hang in for
much of the night, with some clearing potential from the north
late. Gusts should also diminish this evening. Some potential for
sprinkles or flurries for UIN early this morning but spotty nature
of pcpn will probably preclude any mention in the TAF.

Specifics for KSTL: gusty NW winds and MVFR CIGs will prevail
today with diminishing winds and persistent MVFR CIGs tonight.
It now looks like clearing will occur around daybreak Friday from
the north.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 291045
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
445 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 343 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

Observational data at 08z indicated a low pressure area over
northwest IL with a cold front extending to the southwest of it thru
UIN and COU.  A warm front extended from near UIN southeastward thru
southern IL.  Temps have stayed up or risen into the 50s in the warm
sector of this system, and then have plunged into the 30s quickly
behind the cold front in IA and far northwest MO.  Satellite data
shows low clouds move in shortly after cold frontal passage with
plenty more where they came from over the Upper Midwest and northern
Plains.  Radar data shows generally echo-free mosaics over our
region but some obs at ground level have indicated spotty sprinkles
or drizzle underneath the low cloud shield that moves in.
Otherwise, an upper level disturbance was over northern MO early
this morning with another further upstream over eastern SD--all part
of the northwest flow aloft that is in place.

The cold front will push thru the forecast area by 15z with low
clouds to then inundate and persist for the remainder of the day.
Some clearing is then expected in central MO late, possibly
spreading eastward into tonight.  High temperatures for the day,
technically, will all be hit early this morning.  But for daytime
purposes, we should see near steady temps after the initial fall
shortly after frontal passage.  This favors at or below the coolest
MOS for most locales, except near the front after daybreak for areas
south and east of STL metro, where the warmer MAV MOS will probably
work out better given the gradient.

Pcpn will be a tough call today since there is not much to latch on
to and radar is having a tough time picking it up.  Added some
scattered sprinkles or flurries for northern MO and central IL thru
this morning where it looks like there will be some better upper
level support and lift as well as low level convergence.  These
should all be significantly reduced by 18z and have kept the
afternoon pcpn-free.

TES

.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

Surface ridge to build into the region tonight with northwest winds
gradually diminishing. Colder air to filter in with lows in the low
to mid 20s.

On Friday, mostly sunny skies to prevail but temperatures will only
rise into the low 30s east to low 40s west.

Surface ridge to move off to the east late Friday night allowing
southerly winds to return once again ahead of next weather system.
However, lows will still be in the 20s Friday night.

As for next weather system, models still have differences with
placement and timing of frontal boundary. NAM is the slowest and
warmest initially while the GFS and ECMWF are a bit faster and
colder. Will side more with GFS/ECMWF solutions, with precipitation
beginning during the day Saturday and spreading east. It will begin
as a mix of rain and snow, transition to mostly rain briefly during
the afternoon hours with highs in the low 40s. Then as colder air
filters in rather quickly, precipitation to change to all snow
everywhere just after 00z Sunday. As for precipitation amounts, both
the GFS and ECMWF 00z Thursday runs are showing highest values along
the I-70 corridor. However, since there continues to be plenty of
model differences with this storm, it is difficult to determine
snowfall amounts and where the maximum axis of snow will occur. For
now it still does appear that at least a portion of our forecast
area will see accumulating snow Saturday night and Sunday.

Beyond that, the precipitation will come to an end Sunday night with
colder air filtering in and temperatures at or below normal for the
rest of the forecast period. Extended models do indicate a clipper
system will slide through Tuesday night and Wednesday with most of
the energy to the north of the forecast area, so kept slight chance
pops through the period.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 445 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

Strong gusty NW winds and MVFR CIGs will be the rule for today for
all TAF sites. While there will be a tendency for CIGs to be below
2000 ft this morning, they should bump up to the 2000-3000 ft
range this afternoon before lowering again some tonight. There is
increasing indications that tonight the clouds will hang in for
much of the night, with some clearing potential from the north
late. Gusts should also diminish this evening. Some potential for
sprinkles or flurries for UIN early this morning but spotty nature
of pcpn will probably preclude any mention in the TAF.

Specifics for KSTL: gusty NW winds and MVFR CIGs will prevail
today with diminishing winds and persistent MVFR CIGs tonight.
It now looks like clearing will occur around daybreak Friday from
the north.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 290949
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
349 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 343 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

Observational data at 08z indicated a low pressure area over
northwest IL with a cold front extending to the southwest of it thru
UIN and COU.  A warm front extended from near UIN southeastward thru
southern IL.  Temps have stayed up or risen into the 50s in the warm
sector of this system, and then have plunged into the 30s quickly
behind the cold front in IA and far northwest MO.  Satellite data
shows low clouds move in shortly after cold frontal passage with
plenty more where they came from over the Upper Midwest and northern
Plains.  Radar data shows generally echo-free mosaics over our
region but some obs at ground level have indicated spotty sprinkles
or drizzle underneath the low cloud shield that moves in.
Otherwise, an upper level disturbance was over northern MO early
this morning with another further upstream over eastern SD--all part
of the northwest flow aloft that is in place.

The cold front will push thru the forecast area by 15z with low
clouds to then inundate and persist for the remainder of the day.
Some clearing is then expected in central MO late, possibly
spreading eastward into tonight.  High temperatures for the day,
technically, will all be hit early this morning.  But for daytime
purposes, we should see near steady temps after the initial fall
shortly after frontal passage.  This favors at or below the coolest
MOS for most locales, except near the front after daybreak for areas
south and east of STL metro, where the warmer MAV MOS will probably
work out better given the gradient.

Pcpn will be a tough call today since there is not much to latch on
to and radar is having a tough time picking it up.  Added some
scattered sprinkles or flurries for northern MO and central IL thru
this morning where it looks like there will be some better upper
level support and lift as well as low level convergence.  These
should all be significantly reduced by 18z and have kept the
afternoon pcpn-free.

TES

.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

Surface ridge to build into the region tonight with northwest winds
gradually diminishing. Colder air to filter in with lows in the low
to mid 20s.

On Friday, mostly sunny skies to prevail but temperatures will only
rise into the low 30s east to low 40s west.

Surface ridge to move off to the east late Friday night allowing
southerly winds to return once again ahead of next weather system.
However, lows will still be in the 20s Friday night.

As for next weather system, models still have differences with
placement and timing of frontal boundary. NAM is the slowest and
warmest initially while the GFS and ECMWF are a bit faster and
colder. Will side more with GFS/ECMWF solutions, with precipitation
beginning during the day Saturday and spreading east. It will begin
as a mix of rain and snow, transition to mostly rain briefly during
the afternoon hours with highs in the low 40s. Then as colder air
filters in rather quickly, precipitation to change to all snow
everywhere just after 00z Sunday. As for precipitation amounts, both
the GFS and ECMWF 00z Thursday runs are showing highest values along
the I-70 corridor. However, since there continues to be plenty of
model differences with this storm, it is difficult to determine
snowfall amounts and where the maximum axis of snow will occur. For
now it still does appear that at least a portion of our forecast
area will see accumulating snow Saturday night and Sunday.

Beyond that, the precipitation will come to an end Sunday night with
colder air filtering in and temperatures at or below normal for the
rest of the forecast period. Extended models do indicate a clipper
system will slide through Tuesday night and Wednesday with most of
the energy to the north of the forecast area, so kept slight chance
pops through the period.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Cold front has moved through central Missouri and should pass
through the TAF sites late tonight. MVFR ceilings are expected
within a few hours after fropa...along with winds sharply veering
to the northwest along with gusts 20-30 knots. Some uncertainty as
to how long these ceilings will persist. For now continued to lean
a bit pessimistic given expansive OVC deck on 11-3.9 micron
satellite imagery. NAM guidance looked pretty good and followed
closely for ceiling trends through the day on Saturday. This
resulted in TAFs with ceilings rising and then scattering out by
afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:
Cold front has moved through central Missouri and should pass
through the TAF sites late tonight. MVFR ceilings are expected by
1200 UTC behind the front..along with winds sharply veering to the
northwest. Some uncertainty as to how long these ceilings will
persist. For now continued to lean a bit pessimistic given
expansive OVC deck on 11-3.9 micron satellite imagery. NAM
guidance looked pretty good and followed closely for ceiling
trends through the day on Thursday. Winds should slacken up a bit
as sfc ridge approaches area on Thursday night.

Gosselin
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 290949
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
349 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 343 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

Observational data at 08z indicated a low pressure area over
northwest IL with a cold front extending to the southwest of it thru
UIN and COU.  A warm front extended from near UIN southeastward thru
southern IL.  Temps have stayed up or risen into the 50s in the warm
sector of this system, and then have plunged into the 30s quickly
behind the cold front in IA and far northwest MO.  Satellite data
shows low clouds move in shortly after cold frontal passage with
plenty more where they came from over the Upper Midwest and northern
Plains.  Radar data shows generally echo-free mosaics over our
region but some obs at ground level have indicated spotty sprinkles
or drizzle underneath the low cloud shield that moves in.
Otherwise, an upper level disturbance was over northern MO early
this morning with another further upstream over eastern SD--all part
of the northwest flow aloft that is in place.

The cold front will push thru the forecast area by 15z with low
clouds to then inundate and persist for the remainder of the day.
Some clearing is then expected in central MO late, possibly
spreading eastward into tonight.  High temperatures for the day,
technically, will all be hit early this morning.  But for daytime
purposes, we should see near steady temps after the initial fall
shortly after frontal passage.  This favors at or below the coolest
MOS for most locales, except near the front after daybreak for areas
south and east of STL metro, where the warmer MAV MOS will probably
work out better given the gradient.

Pcpn will be a tough call today since there is not much to latch on
to and radar is having a tough time picking it up.  Added some
scattered sprinkles or flurries for northern MO and central IL thru
this morning where it looks like there will be some better upper
level support and lift as well as low level convergence.  These
should all be significantly reduced by 18z and have kept the
afternoon pcpn-free.

TES

.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

Surface ridge to build into the region tonight with northwest winds
gradually diminishing. Colder air to filter in with lows in the low
to mid 20s.

On Friday, mostly sunny skies to prevail but temperatures will only
rise into the low 30s east to low 40s west.

Surface ridge to move off to the east late Friday night allowing
southerly winds to return once again ahead of next weather system.
However, lows will still be in the 20s Friday night.

As for next weather system, models still have differences with
placement and timing of frontal boundary. NAM is the slowest and
warmest initially while the GFS and ECMWF are a bit faster and
colder. Will side more with GFS/ECMWF solutions, with precipitation
beginning during the day Saturday and spreading east. It will begin
as a mix of rain and snow, transition to mostly rain briefly during
the afternoon hours with highs in the low 40s. Then as colder air
filters in rather quickly, precipitation to change to all snow
everywhere just after 00z Sunday. As for precipitation amounts, both
the GFS and ECMWF 00z Thursday runs are showing highest values along
the I-70 corridor. However, since there continues to be plenty of
model differences with this storm, it is difficult to determine
snowfall amounts and where the maximum axis of snow will occur. For
now it still does appear that at least a portion of our forecast
area will see accumulating snow Saturday night and Sunday.

Beyond that, the precipitation will come to an end Sunday night with
colder air filtering in and temperatures at or below normal for the
rest of the forecast period. Extended models do indicate a clipper
system will slide through Tuesday night and Wednesday with most of
the energy to the north of the forecast area, so kept slight chance
pops through the period.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Cold front has moved through central Missouri and should pass
through the TAF sites late tonight. MVFR ceilings are expected
within a few hours after fropa...along with winds sharply veering
to the northwest along with gusts 20-30 knots. Some uncertainty as
to how long these ceilings will persist. For now continued to lean
a bit pessimistic given expansive OVC deck on 11-3.9 micron
satellite imagery. NAM guidance looked pretty good and followed
closely for ceiling trends through the day on Saturday. This
resulted in TAFs with ceilings rising and then scattering out by
afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:
Cold front has moved through central Missouri and should pass
through the TAF sites late tonight. MVFR ceilings are expected by
1200 UTC behind the front..along with winds sharply veering to the
northwest. Some uncertainty as to how long these ceilings will
persist. For now continued to lean a bit pessimistic given
expansive OVC deck on 11-3.9 micron satellite imagery. NAM
guidance looked pretty good and followed closely for ceiling
trends through the day on Thursday. Winds should slacken up a bit
as sfc ridge approaches area on Thursday night.

Gosselin
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KEAX 290944
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
344 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 344 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Early morning satellite showing low stratus descending upon the
region in developing cold air advection behind this morning/s cold
front. Latest obs from across the region showing gusts will into the
lower to mid 30 kt range...with KIXD reporting a 43 kt gust this
past hr. Latest MSAS pressure change product showing max pressure
rise couplet working into northwest MO this morning...which will keep
things rather blustery this morning before winds begin to die down later
this afternoon. Otherwise...noticeably cooler today with highs
ranging from the middle 40s west of Route 65 to low 40s further
east.

After the skies clear later this afternoon...high pressure set to
arrive during the overnight period tonight. Its arrival will ensure
dry and continued seasonable temperatures through Friday with highs
likely climbing into the lower 40s across much of the area. High
pressure will begin sliding east into the lower Ohio Valley Friday
night which should allow for the re-establishment of return flow
across the Nation/s midsection. Meanwhile to our west...attention
will begin to focus on a southern stream upper low across Baja
California in developing split flow aloft. With time...energy from
this feature will begin to slowly track to the east which combined
with decent return flow from the Gulf and additional northern stream
energy arriving from our northwest...will set the stage for
developing precipitation across the Lwr Missouri Vly this weekend.

It should be stated right up front...this weekend/s forecast remains
marginal at best as models have had a very difficult time converging
on any one particular solution. That said...this morning/s suite has
come in more optimistic for measurable snowfall Saturday night and
Sunday as colder air settles south across our region behind a strong
cold front set to arrive Saturday evening. Meanwhile...main storm
system will be the southern stream disturbance which will advect
plenty of moisture northward into the cold front as it moves south
across our region Saturday night. This combined with what appears to
be very favorable positioning under the right entrance region of a
strengthening northern stream jetstreak across the western Great
Lakes/upper Midwest...and decent mid-level frontogenesis along/north
of said front in tightening mid-level flow aloft...should provide
plenty of synoptic scale forcing to support potentially long lived
precipitation. In fact...models even suggest a possible coupled jet
on Sunday as a southern stream jet begins to lift northeast along the
eastern periphery of main digging trough across the Plains.

So for now...expect precip to begin working into the area early
Saturday morning as an inverted trough axis extends north into the
the area in developing warm air advection. Thermal profiles suggest
precip through much of the day will be in liquid form...however a mix
with snow will be possible in the morning hrs. Heading into the
overnight period...much colder air behind the southward sagging front
will result in a quick changeover to all snow with precip possibly
increasing in intensity as upper jet strengthens and northern and
southern stream energy reservoirs begin to interact/consolidate over
the southern Plains. After this occurs...main sfc low to slowly
track from eastern TX into the lower Miss Rvr Vly/Deep South through
the day on Sunday. This should result in precip gradually coming to
an end from west to east by Sunday afternoon. In terms of
accumulations...pretty hard to hang your hat on anything right now.
What is for certain is that system should have plenty of moisture to
work with thanks to re-established return flow from the Gulf. What
may be poor snow to liquid ratios early on Sat evening will only
increase into Sunday morning as colder air continues to infiltrate
the Lwr Missouri Vly. If everything occurs as advertised this
morning...advisory level snowfalls could be possible. That said
however...confidence as stated above is marginal at best based on
model inconsistency. If nothing less...its definitely worth keeping
an eye on.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Sunday night the upper level trough that brought the rain and snow
to the area Saturday through Sunday will finally shift east of the
area taking precipitation with it. Behind the upper level trough,
cold surface high pressure will build into the area bringing some on
the coldest temperatures we have experience since the second week of
January with lows in the single digits to mid teens Sunday night.
High pressure will remain in control over the area on Monday with
cold northwest flow aloft. This will keep highs on Monday 10 to 15
degrees below normal for the Groundhog with highs in the mid 20s to
lower 30s.

Temperatures look to moderate through midweek, returning to near
normal, as northwest flow aloft relaxes. However, models are
indicating that a few fast moving shortwaves will move
through the region during the Tuesday to Wednesday time frame.
Models have not resolved the temporal and spatial issues with these
shortwaves however, it does warrant slight chance POPs during the
period with the northern CWA having the best chance for seeing
precipitation which would be in the form of light snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Gusty NW winds have moved in behind the cold front. Increased wind
speeds are expected through most of the TAF period with gusts up to
30kts. Could see local gusts up to 40kts at times in the early
morning hours Thursday. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings will move in around
08Z near 2kft. Upstream observations indicate the potential for these
to lower to IFR at times, though with increased mixing, confidence is
low enough to exclude for now. Will see ceilings scatter out late
Thursday morning though gusty winds will continue through sunset.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KEAX 290944
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
344 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 344 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Early morning satellite showing low stratus descending upon the
region in developing cold air advection behind this morning/s cold
front. Latest obs from across the region showing gusts will into the
lower to mid 30 kt range...with KIXD reporting a 43 kt gust this
past hr. Latest MSAS pressure change product showing max pressure
rise couplet working into northwest MO this morning...which will keep
things rather blustery this morning before winds begin to die down later
this afternoon. Otherwise...noticeably cooler today with highs
ranging from the middle 40s west of Route 65 to low 40s further
east.

After the skies clear later this afternoon...high pressure set to
arrive during the overnight period tonight. Its arrival will ensure
dry and continued seasonable temperatures through Friday with highs
likely climbing into the lower 40s across much of the area. High
pressure will begin sliding east into the lower Ohio Valley Friday
night which should allow for the re-establishment of return flow
across the Nation/s midsection. Meanwhile to our west...attention
will begin to focus on a southern stream upper low across Baja
California in developing split flow aloft. With time...energy from
this feature will begin to slowly track to the east which combined
with decent return flow from the Gulf and additional northern stream
energy arriving from our northwest...will set the stage for
developing precipitation across the Lwr Missouri Vly this weekend.

It should be stated right up front...this weekend/s forecast remains
marginal at best as models have had a very difficult time converging
on any one particular solution. That said...this morning/s suite has
come in more optimistic for measurable snowfall Saturday night and
Sunday as colder air settles south across our region behind a strong
cold front set to arrive Saturday evening. Meanwhile...main storm
system will be the southern stream disturbance which will advect
plenty of moisture northward into the cold front as it moves south
across our region Saturday night. This combined with what appears to
be very favorable positioning under the right entrance region of a
strengthening northern stream jetstreak across the western Great
Lakes/upper Midwest...and decent mid-level frontogenesis along/north
of said front in tightening mid-level flow aloft...should provide
plenty of synoptic scale forcing to support potentially long lived
precipitation. In fact...models even suggest a possible coupled jet
on Sunday as a southern stream jet begins to lift northeast along the
eastern periphery of main digging trough across the Plains.

So for now...expect precip to begin working into the area early
Saturday morning as an inverted trough axis extends north into the
the area in developing warm air advection. Thermal profiles suggest
precip through much of the day will be in liquid form...however a mix
with snow will be possible in the morning hrs. Heading into the
overnight period...much colder air behind the southward sagging front
will result in a quick changeover to all snow with precip possibly
increasing in intensity as upper jet strengthens and northern and
southern stream energy reservoirs begin to interact/consolidate over
the southern Plains. After this occurs...main sfc low to slowly
track from eastern TX into the lower Miss Rvr Vly/Deep South through
the day on Sunday. This should result in precip gradually coming to
an end from west to east by Sunday afternoon. In terms of
accumulations...pretty hard to hang your hat on anything right now.
What is for certain is that system should have plenty of moisture to
work with thanks to re-established return flow from the Gulf. What
may be poor snow to liquid ratios early on Sat evening will only
increase into Sunday morning as colder air continues to infiltrate
the Lwr Missouri Vly. If everything occurs as advertised this
morning...advisory level snowfalls could be possible. That said
however...confidence as stated above is marginal at best based on
model inconsistency. If nothing less...its definitely worth keeping
an eye on.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Sunday night the upper level trough that brought the rain and snow
to the area Saturday through Sunday will finally shift east of the
area taking precipitation with it. Behind the upper level trough,
cold surface high pressure will build into the area bringing some on
the coldest temperatures we have experience since the second week of
January with lows in the single digits to mid teens Sunday night.
High pressure will remain in control over the area on Monday with
cold northwest flow aloft. This will keep highs on Monday 10 to 15
degrees below normal for the Groundhog with highs in the mid 20s to
lower 30s.

Temperatures look to moderate through midweek, returning to near
normal, as northwest flow aloft relaxes. However, models are
indicating that a few fast moving shortwaves will move
through the region during the Tuesday to Wednesday time frame.
Models have not resolved the temporal and spatial issues with these
shortwaves however, it does warrant slight chance POPs during the
period with the northern CWA having the best chance for seeing
precipitation which would be in the form of light snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Gusty NW winds have moved in behind the cold front. Increased wind
speeds are expected through most of the TAF period with gusts up to
30kts. Could see local gusts up to 40kts at times in the early
morning hours Thursday. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings will move in around
08Z near 2kft. Upstream observations indicate the potential for these
to lower to IFR at times, though with increased mixing, confidence is
low enough to exclude for now. Will see ceilings scatter out late
Thursday morning though gusty winds will continue through sunset.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KSGF 290831
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
231 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 230 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Temperatures were still unseasonably mild early this morning
across the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas with
readings still from the low 50s to around 60. A cold front was in
the process of pushing into the area with a northwest wind edging
into the western CWA as of 2 am. A large low level cloud shield
was quickly tracking southeast behind the front and area of low
pressure and is expected to influence much of the CWA today. Near
term focus will be with the clouds and expected temperatures today.

Main focus thereafter will be with the storm system to affect the
region this weekend and the potential for some wintry weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Clouds were quickly streaming southeast across northwest Missouri
and should start to move into the forecast area by sunrise,
continuing to spread southeast across the area during the morning.
Low level RH SREF progs handle this pretty well and keep cloud
cover in much of the day with some clearing by late in the day and
early evening from west to east. An upper level shortwave will
drop southeast through the area today and will drive a colder air
mass into the region. The clouds combined with the cold air
advection will lead to little temperature rise after the sun comes
up this morning. It will be much colder tonight than what we are
currently experiencing with lows by Friday morning in the mid 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Southern stream upper level system will begin to push into
southern California and the Baja region later tonight and on
Friday. A closed low will develop with this system and ridging out
ahead of it in the southern into central Plains on Friday. The
closed low is expected to remain well to the southwest through the
weekend, but a northern stream shortwave will dive into the
northern Plains on Saturday and will probably start to see some
warm air advection precipitation develop over the area, from west
to east with good southwest flow aloft over the area in advance of
the upper low and a Gulf moisture feed at 850 mb. Precipitation
may begin out west on late Friday night or Saturday morning as a
mix of rain/snow, but should turn to all rain during the day as
temperatures warm into the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Upper energy and frontal system will move into the area Saturday
night with best chances of precipitation Saturday night into
Sunday morning across the area. Temperatures are expected to cool
enough for some snowfall, especially in the northern 1/3 to 1/2 of
the CWA where a few inches of snow is expected at this time.
Further south, the rain will likely hold on a bit longer and the
transition to snow will be later so the further south the lesser
snow amounts are expected. Being that we will be in the transition
zone and models are still varying quite a bit with the thermal
profiles, the snow amounts will likely change over the next couple
of days.

Much colder air will push into the area behind this system Sunday
night and will likely see temperatures dip into the teens to low
20s with highs on Monday only in the mid 20s to around freezing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1156 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Low level wind shear conditions will persist during the early
overnight hours across southern Missouri. A cold front will then
pass through the area later tonight and will terminate the low
level wind shear conditions while shifting surface winds to the
northwest. Winds will then become gusty out the the northwest on
Thursday. Meanwhile, confidence is high that a deck of MVFR
ceilings will settle into the region Thursday morning and will
persist for most of the day.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 290601
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1201 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Quiet and mild weather expected through this period. Surface high
pushes east of the forecast area tonight as shortwave trough begins
to drop through the central plains. As this occurs surface pressure
gradient begins to tighten as low level warm advection increases.
With dry atmosphere expect little in the way of clouds. Biggest
sensible weather will be warm temperatures Wednesday along with
strengthening winds. Model guidance trend has been upward with
regards to afternoon highs, especially in the western areas and thus
trended slightly warmer than previous forecast. Will likely see
readings in the lower 70s across southeast Kansas and far western
Missouri...with mid and upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks. As for
winds expect them to remain below advisory criteria...but will
likely see gusts to 30 to 35 mph...especially in areas west of
Interstate 49.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Aforementioned shortwave trough will remain north of the area
Wednesday night...but will drag a cold front across the area late
Wednesday night into the early morning hours of Thursday. Outside of
just some clouds, precipitation will remain well north and east of
the area. However, temperatures will fall back to seasonable normals
for both Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds back in from
the northern Plains.

Attention then turns to eastward progression of a 500mb southwest
conus low and is associated surface reflection. Medium range models
have trended a little slower with the precipitation shield, with the
12Z GEM keeping Friday night dry and and the 12Z GFS pushing it to
the Kansas/Missouri border by 12Z. Models still indicating that bulk
of precipitation will fall Saturday night which becomes more
problematic in terms of precipitation type. Broad low level warm
advection ahead of the system expected to keep temperatures up on
Saturday. Still enough model differences in the low level thermal
profiles to add much specificity to the grids, but the highest
probability for any accumulating snow would be Saturday night. For
now will continue the rain and snow for the grids. Precipitation
looks to end Sunday with high pressure then settling in Monday and
Tuesday for quiet but seasonable weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1156 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Low level wind shear conditions will persist during the early
overnight hours across southern Missouri. A cold front will then
pass through the area later tonight and will terminate the low
level wind shear conditions while shifting surface winds to the
northwest. Winds will then become gusty out the the northwest on
Thursday. Meanwhile, confidence is high that a deck of MVFR
ceilings will settle into the region Thursday morning and will
persist for most of the day.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 290601
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1201 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Quiet and mild weather expected through this period. Surface high
pushes east of the forecast area tonight as shortwave trough begins
to drop through the central plains. As this occurs surface pressure
gradient begins to tighten as low level warm advection increases.
With dry atmosphere expect little in the way of clouds. Biggest
sensible weather will be warm temperatures Wednesday along with
strengthening winds. Model guidance trend has been upward with
regards to afternoon highs, especially in the western areas and thus
trended slightly warmer than previous forecast. Will likely see
readings in the lower 70s across southeast Kansas and far western
Missouri...with mid and upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks. As for
winds expect them to remain below advisory criteria...but will
likely see gusts to 30 to 35 mph...especially in areas west of
Interstate 49.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Aforementioned shortwave trough will remain north of the area
Wednesday night...but will drag a cold front across the area late
Wednesday night into the early morning hours of Thursday. Outside of
just some clouds, precipitation will remain well north and east of
the area. However, temperatures will fall back to seasonable normals
for both Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds back in from
the northern Plains.

Attention then turns to eastward progression of a 500mb southwest
conus low and is associated surface reflection. Medium range models
have trended a little slower with the precipitation shield, with the
12Z GEM keeping Friday night dry and and the 12Z GFS pushing it to
the Kansas/Missouri border by 12Z. Models still indicating that bulk
of precipitation will fall Saturday night which becomes more
problematic in terms of precipitation type. Broad low level warm
advection ahead of the system expected to keep temperatures up on
Saturday. Still enough model differences in the low level thermal
profiles to add much specificity to the grids, but the highest
probability for any accumulating snow would be Saturday night. For
now will continue the rain and snow for the grids. Precipitation
looks to end Sunday with high pressure then settling in Monday and
Tuesday for quiet but seasonable weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1156 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Low level wind shear conditions will persist during the early
overnight hours across southern Missouri. A cold front will then
pass through the area later tonight and will terminate the low
level wind shear conditions while shifting surface winds to the
northwest. Winds will then become gusty out the the northwest on
Thursday. Meanwhile, confidence is high that a deck of MVFR
ceilings will settle into the region Thursday morning and will
persist for most of the day.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KLSX 290542
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1142 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 402 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Shortwave over the Nebraska panhandle and eastern CO and associated
surface low ahead of it over eastern Nebraska will move eastward
through northern MO and southern IA tonight.  The surface low will
drag a cold front southeastward through our forecast area late
tonight and Thursday morning.  Most of the models have the
precipitation north of the surface low track, although the ECMWF
model does generate light qpf across IL already this evening in the
warm air advection regime ahead of the shortwave.  The models were
also depicting upper level divergence centered over northeast MO and
west central IL, mainly late tonight in the left exit region of an
upper level jet streak dropping into southwest MO.  The quality and
depth of moisture is quite limited with this system so will only
include slight chance pops across west centrl and southwest IL,
mainly late tonight into Thursday morning.   A tight surface
pressure gradient along with a strong southwesterly low level jet
will lead to relatively strong surface winds for the nightime
hours.  Low temperatures will be above normal tonight as the strong
cold air advection behind the front will not impact most of the area
until Thursday morning.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 402 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Colder conditions are expected on Thursday due to low level cold air
advection with strong and gusty northwest winds behind the cold
front, along with post frontal low level cloudiness to limit solar
insolation.  Little diurnal temperature range is expected with some
areas likely having nearly steady or slightly falling temperatures
during the late morning and afternoon hours.  These clouds should
clear out Thursday night as subsidence increases over our area as a
strong surface ridge over the northern Plains builds southeastward
into the region.  Cold conditions will continue Thursday night and
Friday with near normal temperatures for late January.
Precipitation is expected to spread into our area by Saturday
afternoon and evening as moisture spreads into our region ahead of
the southwestern US upper level low, and as a strong northern stream
shortwave approaches from the northern Plains.  Initially it appears
that surface temperatures will be warm enough Saturday afternoon
into the evening that any precipiation at this time should fall as
liquid rain.  As a cold front sags southward through our forecast
area Saturday night into Sunday as the upper level trough gradually
deepens over the northern Plains and Great Lakes region the
precipitation should change over to snow.  The ECMWF model has most
of its QPF along and south of I-70 Saturday night and Sunday.  The
GFS is similar although it does have a little more qpf across
northern MO and west central IL compared to the ECMWF.  There has
been plenty of model differences along with run to run
inconsistencies with this weekend storm system and hence it has been
difficult to determine precipitation amounts and types across our
area.  For now it does appear that at least a portion of our
forecast area will see accumulating snow Saturday night and Sunday,
but the snowfall amounts and where the maximum axis of snow will
occur is still in question.  Much colder, below normal temperatures
can be expected for Sunday night through Monday night with the
models dropping the -12 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward into our
forecast area Sunday afternoon.  Monday and Tuesday will likely be
dry as snow associated with northwest flow shortwaves should be
north of our area, and any precipitation associated with the
southwest US upper level low finally moving eastward through the
southern Plains and Gulf Coast region will be well south of our area.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015


Cold front has moved through central Missouri and should pass
through the TAF sites late tonight. MVFR ceilings are expected
within a few hours after fropa...along with winds sharply veering
to the northwest along with gusts 20-30 knots. Some uncertainty as
to how long these ceilings will persist. For now continued to lean
a bit pessisimistic given expansive OVC deck on 11-3.9 micron
satellite imagery. NAM guidance looked pretty good and followed
closely for ceiling trends through the day on Saturday. This
resulted in TAFs with ceilings rising and then scattering out by
afternoon.


Specifics for KSTL:

Cold front has moved through central Missouri and should pass
through the TAF sites late tonight. MVFR ceilings are expected
by 1200 UTC behind the front..along with winds sharply veering
to the northwest. Some uncertainty as to how long these ceilings
will persist. For now continued to lean a bit pessisimistic given
expansive OVC deck on 11-3.9 micron satellite imagery. NAM
guidance looked pretty good and followed closely for ceiling
trends through the day on Thursday. Winds should slacken up a bit
as sfc ridge approaches area on Thursday night.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 290542
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1142 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 402 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Shortwave over the Nebraska panhandle and eastern CO and associated
surface low ahead of it over eastern Nebraska will move eastward
through northern MO and southern IA tonight.  The surface low will
drag a cold front southeastward through our forecast area late
tonight and Thursday morning.  Most of the models have the
precipitation north of the surface low track, although the ECMWF
model does generate light qpf across IL already this evening in the
warm air advection regime ahead of the shortwave.  The models were
also depicting upper level divergence centered over northeast MO and
west central IL, mainly late tonight in the left exit region of an
upper level jet streak dropping into southwest MO.  The quality and
depth of moisture is quite limited with this system so will only
include slight chance pops across west centrl and southwest IL,
mainly late tonight into Thursday morning.   A tight surface
pressure gradient along with a strong southwesterly low level jet
will lead to relatively strong surface winds for the nightime
hours.  Low temperatures will be above normal tonight as the strong
cold air advection behind the front will not impact most of the area
until Thursday morning.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 402 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Colder conditions are expected on Thursday due to low level cold air
advection with strong and gusty northwest winds behind the cold
front, along with post frontal low level cloudiness to limit solar
insolation.  Little diurnal temperature range is expected with some
areas likely having nearly steady or slightly falling temperatures
during the late morning and afternoon hours.  These clouds should
clear out Thursday night as subsidence increases over our area as a
strong surface ridge over the northern Plains builds southeastward
into the region.  Cold conditions will continue Thursday night and
Friday with near normal temperatures for late January.
Precipitation is expected to spread into our area by Saturday
afternoon and evening as moisture spreads into our region ahead of
the southwestern US upper level low, and as a strong northern stream
shortwave approaches from the northern Plains.  Initially it appears
that surface temperatures will be warm enough Saturday afternoon
into the evening that any precipiation at this time should fall as
liquid rain.  As a cold front sags southward through our forecast
area Saturday night into Sunday as the upper level trough gradually
deepens over the northern Plains and Great Lakes region the
precipitation should change over to snow.  The ECMWF model has most
of its QPF along and south of I-70 Saturday night and Sunday.  The
GFS is similar although it does have a little more qpf across
northern MO and west central IL compared to the ECMWF.  There has
been plenty of model differences along with run to run
inconsistencies with this weekend storm system and hence it has been
difficult to determine precipitation amounts and types across our
area.  For now it does appear that at least a portion of our
forecast area will see accumulating snow Saturday night and Sunday,
but the snowfall amounts and where the maximum axis of snow will
occur is still in question.  Much colder, below normal temperatures
can be expected for Sunday night through Monday night with the
models dropping the -12 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward into our
forecast area Sunday afternoon.  Monday and Tuesday will likely be
dry as snow associated with northwest flow shortwaves should be
north of our area, and any precipitation associated with the
southwest US upper level low finally moving eastward through the
southern Plains and Gulf Coast region will be well south of our area.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015


Cold front has moved through central Missouri and should pass
through the TAF sites late tonight. MVFR ceilings are expected
within a few hours after fropa...along with winds sharply veering
to the northwest along with gusts 20-30 knots. Some uncertainty as
to how long these ceilings will persist. For now continued to lean
a bit pessisimistic given expansive OVC deck on 11-3.9 micron
satellite imagery. NAM guidance looked pretty good and followed
closely for ceiling trends through the day on Saturday. This
resulted in TAFs with ceilings rising and then scattering out by
afternoon.


Specifics for KSTL:

Cold front has moved through central Missouri and should pass
through the TAF sites late tonight. MVFR ceilings are expected
by 1200 UTC behind the front..along with winds sharply veering
to the northwest. Some uncertainty as to how long these ceilings
will persist. For now continued to lean a bit pessisimistic given
expansive OVC deck on 11-3.9 micron satellite imagery. NAM
guidance looked pretty good and followed closely for ceiling
trends through the day on Thursday. Winds should slacken up a bit
as sfc ridge approaches area on Thursday night.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 290542
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1142 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 402 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Shortwave over the Nebraska panhandle and eastern CO and associated
surface low ahead of it over eastern Nebraska will move eastward
through northern MO and southern IA tonight.  The surface low will
drag a cold front southeastward through our forecast area late
tonight and Thursday morning.  Most of the models have the
precipitation north of the surface low track, although the ECMWF
model does generate light qpf across IL already this evening in the
warm air advection regime ahead of the shortwave.  The models were
also depicting upper level divergence centered over northeast MO and
west central IL, mainly late tonight in the left exit region of an
upper level jet streak dropping into southwest MO.  The quality and
depth of moisture is quite limited with this system so will only
include slight chance pops across west centrl and southwest IL,
mainly late tonight into Thursday morning.   A tight surface
pressure gradient along with a strong southwesterly low level jet
will lead to relatively strong surface winds for the nightime
hours.  Low temperatures will be above normal tonight as the strong
cold air advection behind the front will not impact most of the area
until Thursday morning.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 402 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Colder conditions are expected on Thursday due to low level cold air
advection with strong and gusty northwest winds behind the cold
front, along with post frontal low level cloudiness to limit solar
insolation.  Little diurnal temperature range is expected with some
areas likely having nearly steady or slightly falling temperatures
during the late morning and afternoon hours.  These clouds should
clear out Thursday night as subsidence increases over our area as a
strong surface ridge over the northern Plains builds southeastward
into the region.  Cold conditions will continue Thursday night and
Friday with near normal temperatures for late January.
Precipitation is expected to spread into our area by Saturday
afternoon and evening as moisture spreads into our region ahead of
the southwestern US upper level low, and as a strong northern stream
shortwave approaches from the northern Plains.  Initially it appears
that surface temperatures will be warm enough Saturday afternoon
into the evening that any precipiation at this time should fall as
liquid rain.  As a cold front sags southward through our forecast
area Saturday night into Sunday as the upper level trough gradually
deepens over the northern Plains and Great Lakes region the
precipitation should change over to snow.  The ECMWF model has most
of its QPF along and south of I-70 Saturday night and Sunday.  The
GFS is similar although it does have a little more qpf across
northern MO and west central IL compared to the ECMWF.  There has
been plenty of model differences along with run to run
inconsistencies with this weekend storm system and hence it has been
difficult to determine precipitation amounts and types across our
area.  For now it does appear that at least a portion of our
forecast area will see accumulating snow Saturday night and Sunday,
but the snowfall amounts and where the maximum axis of snow will
occur is still in question.  Much colder, below normal temperatures
can be expected for Sunday night through Monday night with the
models dropping the -12 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward into our
forecast area Sunday afternoon.  Monday and Tuesday will likely be
dry as snow associated with northwest flow shortwaves should be
north of our area, and any precipitation associated with the
southwest US upper level low finally moving eastward through the
southern Plains and Gulf Coast region will be well south of our area.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015


Cold front has moved through central Missouri and should pass
through the TAF sites late tonight. MVFR ceilings are expected
within a few hours after fropa...along with winds sharply veering
to the northwest along with gusts 20-30 knots. Some uncertainty as
to how long these ceilings will persist. For now continued to lean
a bit pessisimistic given expansive OVC deck on 11-3.9 micron
satellite imagery. NAM guidance looked pretty good and followed
closely for ceiling trends through the day on Saturday. This
resulted in TAFs with ceilings rising and then scattering out by
afternoon.


Specifics for KSTL:

Cold front has moved through central Missouri and should pass
through the TAF sites late tonight. MVFR ceilings are expected
by 1200 UTC behind the front..along with winds sharply veering
to the northwest. Some uncertainty as to how long these ceilings
will persist. For now continued to lean a bit pessisimistic given
expansive OVC deck on 11-3.9 micron satellite imagery. NAM
guidance looked pretty good and followed closely for ceiling
trends through the day on Thursday. Winds should slacken up a bit
as sfc ridge approaches area on Thursday night.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 290542
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1142 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 402 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Shortwave over the Nebraska panhandle and eastern CO and associated
surface low ahead of it over eastern Nebraska will move eastward
through northern MO and southern IA tonight.  The surface low will
drag a cold front southeastward through our forecast area late
tonight and Thursday morning.  Most of the models have the
precipitation north of the surface low track, although the ECMWF
model does generate light qpf across IL already this evening in the
warm air advection regime ahead of the shortwave.  The models were
also depicting upper level divergence centered over northeast MO and
west central IL, mainly late tonight in the left exit region of an
upper level jet streak dropping into southwest MO.  The quality and
depth of moisture is quite limited with this system so will only
include slight chance pops across west centrl and southwest IL,
mainly late tonight into Thursday morning.   A tight surface
pressure gradient along with a strong southwesterly low level jet
will lead to relatively strong surface winds for the nightime
hours.  Low temperatures will be above normal tonight as the strong
cold air advection behind the front will not impact most of the area
until Thursday morning.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 402 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Colder conditions are expected on Thursday due to low level cold air
advection with strong and gusty northwest winds behind the cold
front, along with post frontal low level cloudiness to limit solar
insolation.  Little diurnal temperature range is expected with some
areas likely having nearly steady or slightly falling temperatures
during the late morning and afternoon hours.  These clouds should
clear out Thursday night as subsidence increases over our area as a
strong surface ridge over the northern Plains builds southeastward
into the region.  Cold conditions will continue Thursday night and
Friday with near normal temperatures for late January.
Precipitation is expected to spread into our area by Saturday
afternoon and evening as moisture spreads into our region ahead of
the southwestern US upper level low, and as a strong northern stream
shortwave approaches from the northern Plains.  Initially it appears
that surface temperatures will be warm enough Saturday afternoon
into the evening that any precipiation at this time should fall as
liquid rain.  As a cold front sags southward through our forecast
area Saturday night into Sunday as the upper level trough gradually
deepens over the northern Plains and Great Lakes region the
precipitation should change over to snow.  The ECMWF model has most
of its QPF along and south of I-70 Saturday night and Sunday.  The
GFS is similar although it does have a little more qpf across
northern MO and west central IL compared to the ECMWF.  There has
been plenty of model differences along with run to run
inconsistencies with this weekend storm system and hence it has been
difficult to determine precipitation amounts and types across our
area.  For now it does appear that at least a portion of our
forecast area will see accumulating snow Saturday night and Sunday,
but the snowfall amounts and where the maximum axis of snow will
occur is still in question.  Much colder, below normal temperatures
can be expected for Sunday night through Monday night with the
models dropping the -12 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward into our
forecast area Sunday afternoon.  Monday and Tuesday will likely be
dry as snow associated with northwest flow shortwaves should be
north of our area, and any precipitation associated with the
southwest US upper level low finally moving eastward through the
southern Plains and Gulf Coast region will be well south of our area.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015


Cold front has moved through central Missouri and should pass
through the TAF sites late tonight. MVFR ceilings are expected
within a few hours after fropa...along with winds sharply veering
to the northwest along with gusts 20-30 knots. Some uncertainty as
to how long these ceilings will persist. For now continued to lean
a bit pessisimistic given expansive OVC deck on 11-3.9 micron
satellite imagery. NAM guidance looked pretty good and followed
closely for ceiling trends through the day on Saturday. This
resulted in TAFs with ceilings rising and then scattering out by
afternoon.


Specifics for KSTL:

Cold front has moved through central Missouri and should pass
through the TAF sites late tonight. MVFR ceilings are expected
by 1200 UTC behind the front..along with winds sharply veering
to the northwest. Some uncertainty as to how long these ceilings
will persist. For now continued to lean a bit pessisimistic given
expansive OVC deck on 11-3.9 micron satellite imagery. NAM
guidance looked pretty good and followed closely for ceiling
trends through the day on Thursday. Winds should slacken up a bit
as sfc ridge approaches area on Thursday night.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 290530
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1130 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 615 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Near-record warm temperatures will be swept out of the region
tonight by a fairly strong cold front, which will pack a bit of a
punch with sharply colder temperatures and northwest winds gusting
between 25 and 35 mph after midnight. Thursday`s temperatures behind
the front will only manage a small climb into the 40s as cold air
continues to push into the region, and Friday`s highs will be even
cooler in the upper 30s to low 40s as colder air continues to filter
down.

We`re continuing to watch two systems that will push into the region
by Saturday, creating a pretty good potential for some much needed
precipitation throughout the CWA. Light precipitation will likely
develop out ahead of the southern wave on Saturday, but p-type
remains somewhat complicated. Based on the preexisting warm ground,
fairly warm (for late January) temperatures, and southerly winds/
warm-air advection regime, snow accumulations during the daytime
hours seem unlikely. Wet-bulb temperature profiles still indicate
periods of snow throughout the day, so have opted to continue the
rain/snow mix through much of the area, but at the same time have
hedged downward on the probability of snow due to surface wet-bulb
temperatures and the aforementioned relative warmth in place.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 615 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

The later portion of the forecast period remains complicated with a
longwave trough deepening across the desert southwest and a
shortwave trough moving down out of Canada Rockies. These systems
will begin to merge Sat across the Plains with increasing WWA ahead
of the system. Previous models have a more pronounced shortwave
trough that would deepen as it moved out into the Northern Plains,
however, recent models runs have dampened this wave out as it
translates eastward. Ensemble analysis has a number of members
deepening the system and others dampening the system, thus there is
still limited consensus on shortwave evolution. If the shortwave
trough is dampened and surface low does not deepen, snow potential
will be limited. Temperature profile also proves tricky in
determining snowfall accumulations with colder air lagging a bit
near the surface. Depending on the depth of this warmer air,
precipitation could start out as a rain-snow mix and then
transitioning to all snow as colder air moves in behind the cold
front progged to move through the CWA Sat night. Precipitation will
gradually end Sun night from east to west as the system progresses
eastward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Gusty NW winds have moved in behind the cold front. Increased wind
speeds are expected through most of the TAF period with gusts up to
30kts. Could see local gusts up to 40kts at times in the early
morning hours Thursday. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings will move in around
08Z near 2kft. Upstream observations indicate the potential for these
to lower to IFR at times, though with increased mixing, confidence is
low enough to exclude for now. Will see ceilings scatter out late
Thursday morning though gusty winds will continue through sunset.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 290530
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1130 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 615 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Near-record warm temperatures will be swept out of the region
tonight by a fairly strong cold front, which will pack a bit of a
punch with sharply colder temperatures and northwest winds gusting
between 25 and 35 mph after midnight. Thursday`s temperatures behind
the front will only manage a small climb into the 40s as cold air
continues to push into the region, and Friday`s highs will be even
cooler in the upper 30s to low 40s as colder air continues to filter
down.

We`re continuing to watch two systems that will push into the region
by Saturday, creating a pretty good potential for some much needed
precipitation throughout the CWA. Light precipitation will likely
develop out ahead of the southern wave on Saturday, but p-type
remains somewhat complicated. Based on the preexisting warm ground,
fairly warm (for late January) temperatures, and southerly winds/
warm-air advection regime, snow accumulations during the daytime
hours seem unlikely. Wet-bulb temperature profiles still indicate
periods of snow throughout the day, so have opted to continue the
rain/snow mix through much of the area, but at the same time have
hedged downward on the probability of snow due to surface wet-bulb
temperatures and the aforementioned relative warmth in place.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 615 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

The later portion of the forecast period remains complicated with a
longwave trough deepening across the desert southwest and a
shortwave trough moving down out of Canada Rockies. These systems
will begin to merge Sat across the Plains with increasing WWA ahead
of the system. Previous models have a more pronounced shortwave
trough that would deepen as it moved out into the Northern Plains,
however, recent models runs have dampened this wave out as it
translates eastward. Ensemble analysis has a number of members
deepening the system and others dampening the system, thus there is
still limited consensus on shortwave evolution. If the shortwave
trough is dampened and surface low does not deepen, snow potential
will be limited. Temperature profile also proves tricky in
determining snowfall accumulations with colder air lagging a bit
near the surface. Depending on the depth of this warmer air,
precipitation could start out as a rain-snow mix and then
transitioning to all snow as colder air moves in behind the cold
front progged to move through the CWA Sat night. Precipitation will
gradually end Sun night from east to west as the system progresses
eastward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Gusty NW winds have moved in behind the cold front. Increased wind
speeds are expected through most of the TAF period with gusts up to
30kts. Could see local gusts up to 40kts at times in the early
morning hours Thursday. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings will move in around
08Z near 2kft. Upstream observations indicate the potential for these
to lower to IFR at times, though with increased mixing, confidence is
low enough to exclude for now. Will see ceilings scatter out late
Thursday morning though gusty winds will continue through sunset.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 290530
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1130 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 615 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Near-record warm temperatures will be swept out of the region
tonight by a fairly strong cold front, which will pack a bit of a
punch with sharply colder temperatures and northwest winds gusting
between 25 and 35 mph after midnight. Thursday`s temperatures behind
the front will only manage a small climb into the 40s as cold air
continues to push into the region, and Friday`s highs will be even
cooler in the upper 30s to low 40s as colder air continues to filter
down.

We`re continuing to watch two systems that will push into the region
by Saturday, creating a pretty good potential for some much needed
precipitation throughout the CWA. Light precipitation will likely
develop out ahead of the southern wave on Saturday, but p-type
remains somewhat complicated. Based on the preexisting warm ground,
fairly warm (for late January) temperatures, and southerly winds/
warm-air advection regime, snow accumulations during the daytime
hours seem unlikely. Wet-bulb temperature profiles still indicate
periods of snow throughout the day, so have opted to continue the
rain/snow mix through much of the area, but at the same time have
hedged downward on the probability of snow due to surface wet-bulb
temperatures and the aforementioned relative warmth in place.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 615 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

The later portion of the forecast period remains complicated with a
longwave trough deepening across the desert southwest and a
shortwave trough moving down out of Canada Rockies. These systems
will begin to merge Sat across the Plains with increasing WWA ahead
of the system. Previous models have a more pronounced shortwave
trough that would deepen as it moved out into the Northern Plains,
however, recent models runs have dampened this wave out as it
translates eastward. Ensemble analysis has a number of members
deepening the system and others dampening the system, thus there is
still limited consensus on shortwave evolution. If the shortwave
trough is dampened and surface low does not deepen, snow potential
will be limited. Temperature profile also proves tricky in
determining snowfall accumulations with colder air lagging a bit
near the surface. Depending on the depth of this warmer air,
precipitation could start out as a rain-snow mix and then
transitioning to all snow as colder air moves in behind the cold
front progged to move through the CWA Sat night. Precipitation will
gradually end Sun night from east to west as the system progresses
eastward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Gusty NW winds have moved in behind the cold front. Increased wind
speeds are expected through most of the TAF period with gusts up to
30kts. Could see local gusts up to 40kts at times in the early
morning hours Thursday. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings will move in around
08Z near 2kft. Upstream observations indicate the potential for these
to lower to IFR at times, though with increased mixing, confidence is
low enough to exclude for now. Will see ceilings scatter out late
Thursday morning though gusty winds will continue through sunset.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 290530
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1130 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 615 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Near-record warm temperatures will be swept out of the region
tonight by a fairly strong cold front, which will pack a bit of a
punch with sharply colder temperatures and northwest winds gusting
between 25 and 35 mph after midnight. Thursday`s temperatures behind
the front will only manage a small climb into the 40s as cold air
continues to push into the region, and Friday`s highs will be even
cooler in the upper 30s to low 40s as colder air continues to filter
down.

We`re continuing to watch two systems that will push into the region
by Saturday, creating a pretty good potential for some much needed
precipitation throughout the CWA. Light precipitation will likely
develop out ahead of the southern wave on Saturday, but p-type
remains somewhat complicated. Based on the preexisting warm ground,
fairly warm (for late January) temperatures, and southerly winds/
warm-air advection regime, snow accumulations during the daytime
hours seem unlikely. Wet-bulb temperature profiles still indicate
periods of snow throughout the day, so have opted to continue the
rain/snow mix through much of the area, but at the same time have
hedged downward on the probability of snow due to surface wet-bulb
temperatures and the aforementioned relative warmth in place.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 615 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

The later portion of the forecast period remains complicated with a
longwave trough deepening across the desert southwest and a
shortwave trough moving down out of Canada Rockies. These systems
will begin to merge Sat across the Plains with increasing WWA ahead
of the system. Previous models have a more pronounced shortwave
trough that would deepen as it moved out into the Northern Plains,
however, recent models runs have dampened this wave out as it
translates eastward. Ensemble analysis has a number of members
deepening the system and others dampening the system, thus there is
still limited consensus on shortwave evolution. If the shortwave
trough is dampened and surface low does not deepen, snow potential
will be limited. Temperature profile also proves tricky in
determining snowfall accumulations with colder air lagging a bit
near the surface. Depending on the depth of this warmer air,
precipitation could start out as a rain-snow mix and then
transitioning to all snow as colder air moves in behind the cold
front progged to move through the CWA Sat night. Precipitation will
gradually end Sun night from east to west as the system progresses
eastward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Gusty NW winds have moved in behind the cold front. Increased wind
speeds are expected through most of the TAF period with gusts up to
30kts. Could see local gusts up to 40kts at times in the early
morning hours Thursday. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings will move in around
08Z near 2kft. Upstream observations indicate the potential for these
to lower to IFR at times, though with increased mixing, confidence is
low enough to exclude for now. Will see ceilings scatter out late
Thursday morning though gusty winds will continue through sunset.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 290016
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
616 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 615 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Near-record warm temperatures will be swept out of the region
tonight by a fairly strong cold front, which will pack a bit of a
punch with sharply colder temperatures and northwest winds gusting
between 25 and 35 mph after midnight. Thursday`s temperatures behind
the front will only manage a small climb into the 40s as cold air
continues to push into the region, and Friday`s highs will be even
cooler in the upper 30s to low 40s as colder air continues to filter
down.

We`re continuing to watch two systems that will push into the region
by Saturday, creating a pretty good potential for some much needed
precipitation throughout the CWA. Light precipitation will likely
develop out ahead of the southern wave on Saturday, but p-type
remains somewhat complicated. Based on the preexisting warm ground,
fairly warm (for late January) temperatures, and southerly winds/
warm-air advection regime, snow accumulations during the daytime
hours seem unlikely. Wet-bulb temperature profiles still indicate
periods of snow throughout the day, so have opted to continue the
rain/snow mix through much of the area, but at the same time have
hedged downward on the probability of snow due to surface wet-bulb
temperatures and the aforementioned relative warmth in place.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 615 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

The later portion of the forecast period remains complicated with a
longwave trough deepening across the desert southwest and a
shortwave trough moving down out of Canada Rockies. These systems
will begin to merge Sat across the Plains with increasing WWA ahead
of the system. Previous models have a more pronounced shortwave
trough that would deepen as it moved out into the Northern Plains,
however, recent models runs have dampened this wave out as it
translates eastward. Ensemble analysis has a number of members
deepening the system and others dampening the system, thus there is
still limited consensus on shortwave evolution. If the shortwave
trough is dampened and surface low does not deepen, snow potential
will be limited. Temperature profile also proves tricky in
determining snowfall accumulations with colder air lagging a bit
near the surface. Depending on the depth of this warmer air,
precipitation could start out as a rain-snow mix and then
transitioning to all snow as colder air moves in behind the cold
front progged to move through the CWA Sat night. Precipitation will
gradually end Sun night from east to west as the system progresses
eastward.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 511 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR conditions will prevail through the initial portion of the TAF
period. Expecting the cold front to push through the area around 05Z
with gusty winds out of the NW behind the boundary. MVFR ceilings
will work their way in from the NW following the frontal passage around
09Z, with increasing winds gusting to 30kts. This feature will remain
in place overnight and into the morning hours prior to scattering out
in the early afternoon Thursday. NW winds are expected to weaken
slightly, though gusts will continue up to 25kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 290016
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
616 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 615 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Near-record warm temperatures will be swept out of the region
tonight by a fairly strong cold front, which will pack a bit of a
punch with sharply colder temperatures and northwest winds gusting
between 25 and 35 mph after midnight. Thursday`s temperatures behind
the front will only manage a small climb into the 40s as cold air
continues to push into the region, and Friday`s highs will be even
cooler in the upper 30s to low 40s as colder air continues to filter
down.

We`re continuing to watch two systems that will push into the region
by Saturday, creating a pretty good potential for some much needed
precipitation throughout the CWA. Light precipitation will likely
develop out ahead of the southern wave on Saturday, but p-type
remains somewhat complicated. Based on the preexisting warm ground,
fairly warm (for late January) temperatures, and southerly winds/
warm-air advection regime, snow accumulations during the daytime
hours seem unlikely. Wet-bulb temperature profiles still indicate
periods of snow throughout the day, so have opted to continue the
rain/snow mix through much of the area, but at the same time have
hedged downward on the probability of snow due to surface wet-bulb
temperatures and the aforementioned relative warmth in place.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 615 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

The later portion of the forecast period remains complicated with a
longwave trough deepening across the desert southwest and a
shortwave trough moving down out of Canada Rockies. These systems
will begin to merge Sat across the Plains with increasing WWA ahead
of the system. Previous models have a more pronounced shortwave
trough that would deepen as it moved out into the Northern Plains,
however, recent models runs have dampened this wave out as it
translates eastward. Ensemble analysis has a number of members
deepening the system and others dampening the system, thus there is
still limited consensus on shortwave evolution. If the shortwave
trough is dampened and surface low does not deepen, snow potential
will be limited. Temperature profile also proves tricky in
determining snowfall accumulations with colder air lagging a bit
near the surface. Depending on the depth of this warmer air,
precipitation could start out as a rain-snow mix and then
transitioning to all snow as colder air moves in behind the cold
front progged to move through the CWA Sat night. Precipitation will
gradually end Sun night from east to west as the system progresses
eastward.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 511 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR conditions will prevail through the initial portion of the TAF
period. Expecting the cold front to push through the area around 05Z
with gusty winds out of the NW behind the boundary. MVFR ceilings
will work their way in from the NW following the frontal passage around
09Z, with increasing winds gusting to 30kts. This feature will remain
in place overnight and into the morning hours prior to scattering out
in the early afternoon Thursday. NW winds are expected to weaken
slightly, though gusts will continue up to 25kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 290016
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
616 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 615 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Near-record warm temperatures will be swept out of the region
tonight by a fairly strong cold front, which will pack a bit of a
punch with sharply colder temperatures and northwest winds gusting
between 25 and 35 mph after midnight. Thursday`s temperatures behind
the front will only manage a small climb into the 40s as cold air
continues to push into the region, and Friday`s highs will be even
cooler in the upper 30s to low 40s as colder air continues to filter
down.

We`re continuing to watch two systems that will push into the region
by Saturday, creating a pretty good potential for some much needed
precipitation throughout the CWA. Light precipitation will likely
develop out ahead of the southern wave on Saturday, but p-type
remains somewhat complicated. Based on the preexisting warm ground,
fairly warm (for late January) temperatures, and southerly winds/
warm-air advection regime, snow accumulations during the daytime
hours seem unlikely. Wet-bulb temperature profiles still indicate
periods of snow throughout the day, so have opted to continue the
rain/snow mix through much of the area, but at the same time have
hedged downward on the probability of snow due to surface wet-bulb
temperatures and the aforementioned relative warmth in place.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 615 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

The later portion of the forecast period remains complicated with a
longwave trough deepening across the desert southwest and a
shortwave trough moving down out of Canada Rockies. These systems
will begin to merge Sat across the Plains with increasing WWA ahead
of the system. Previous models have a more pronounced shortwave
trough that would deepen as it moved out into the Northern Plains,
however, recent models runs have dampened this wave out as it
translates eastward. Ensemble analysis has a number of members
deepening the system and others dampening the system, thus there is
still limited consensus on shortwave evolution. If the shortwave
trough is dampened and surface low does not deepen, snow potential
will be limited. Temperature profile also proves tricky in
determining snowfall accumulations with colder air lagging a bit
near the surface. Depending on the depth of this warmer air,
precipitation could start out as a rain-snow mix and then
transitioning to all snow as colder air moves in behind the cold
front progged to move through the CWA Sat night. Precipitation will
gradually end Sun night from east to west as the system progresses
eastward.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 511 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR conditions will prevail through the initial portion of the TAF
period. Expecting the cold front to push through the area around 05Z
with gusty winds out of the NW behind the boundary. MVFR ceilings
will work their way in from the NW following the frontal passage around
09Z, with increasing winds gusting to 30kts. This feature will remain
in place overnight and into the morning hours prior to scattering out
in the early afternoon Thursday. NW winds are expected to weaken
slightly, though gusts will continue up to 25kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 290016
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
616 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 615 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Near-record warm temperatures will be swept out of the region
tonight by a fairly strong cold front, which will pack a bit of a
punch with sharply colder temperatures and northwest winds gusting
between 25 and 35 mph after midnight. Thursday`s temperatures behind
the front will only manage a small climb into the 40s as cold air
continues to push into the region, and Friday`s highs will be even
cooler in the upper 30s to low 40s as colder air continues to filter
down.

We`re continuing to watch two systems that will push into the region
by Saturday, creating a pretty good potential for some much needed
precipitation throughout the CWA. Light precipitation will likely
develop out ahead of the southern wave on Saturday, but p-type
remains somewhat complicated. Based on the preexisting warm ground,
fairly warm (for late January) temperatures, and southerly winds/
warm-air advection regime, snow accumulations during the daytime
hours seem unlikely. Wet-bulb temperature profiles still indicate
periods of snow throughout the day, so have opted to continue the
rain/snow mix through much of the area, but at the same time have
hedged downward on the probability of snow due to surface wet-bulb
temperatures and the aforementioned relative warmth in place.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 615 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

The later portion of the forecast period remains complicated with a
longwave trough deepening across the desert southwest and a
shortwave trough moving down out of Canada Rockies. These systems
will begin to merge Sat across the Plains with increasing WWA ahead
of the system. Previous models have a more pronounced shortwave
trough that would deepen as it moved out into the Northern Plains,
however, recent models runs have dampened this wave out as it
translates eastward. Ensemble analysis has a number of members
deepening the system and others dampening the system, thus there is
still limited consensus on shortwave evolution. If the shortwave
trough is dampened and surface low does not deepen, snow potential
will be limited. Temperature profile also proves tricky in
determining snowfall accumulations with colder air lagging a bit
near the surface. Depending on the depth of this warmer air,
precipitation could start out as a rain-snow mix and then
transitioning to all snow as colder air moves in behind the cold
front progged to move through the CWA Sat night. Precipitation will
gradually end Sun night from east to west as the system progresses
eastward.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 511 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR conditions will prevail through the initial portion of the TAF
period. Expecting the cold front to push through the area around 05Z
with gusty winds out of the NW behind the boundary. MVFR ceilings
will work their way in from the NW following the frontal passage around
09Z, with increasing winds gusting to 30kts. This feature will remain
in place overnight and into the morning hours prior to scattering out
in the early afternoon Thursday. NW winds are expected to weaken
slightly, though gusts will continue up to 25kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 290016
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
616 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 615 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Near-record warm temperatures will be swept out of the region
tonight by a fairly strong cold front, which will pack a bit of a
punch with sharply colder temperatures and northwest winds gusting
between 25 and 35 mph after midnight. Thursday`s temperatures behind
the front will only manage a small climb into the 40s as cold air
continues to push into the region, and Friday`s highs will be even
cooler in the upper 30s to low 40s as colder air continues to filter
down.

We`re continuing to watch two systems that will push into the region
by Saturday, creating a pretty good potential for some much needed
precipitation throughout the CWA. Light precipitation will likely
develop out ahead of the southern wave on Saturday, but p-type
remains somewhat complicated. Based on the preexisting warm ground,
fairly warm (for late January) temperatures, and southerly winds/
warm-air advection regime, snow accumulations during the daytime
hours seem unlikely. Wet-bulb temperature profiles still indicate
periods of snow throughout the day, so have opted to continue the
rain/snow mix through much of the area, but at the same time have
hedged downward on the probability of snow due to surface wet-bulb
temperatures and the aforementioned relative warmth in place.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 615 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

The later portion of the forecast period remains complicated with a
longwave trough deepening across the desert southwest and a
shortwave trough moving down out of Canada Rockies. These systems
will begin to merge Sat across the Plains with increasing WWA ahead
of the system. Previous models have a more pronounced shortwave
trough that would deepen as it moved out into the Northern Plains,
however, recent models runs have dampened this wave out as it
translates eastward. Ensemble analysis has a number of members
deepening the system and others dampening the system, thus there is
still limited consensus on shortwave evolution. If the shortwave
trough is dampened and surface low does not deepen, snow potential
will be limited. Temperature profile also proves tricky in
determining snowfall accumulations with colder air lagging a bit
near the surface. Depending on the depth of this warmer air,
precipitation could start out as a rain-snow mix and then
transitioning to all snow as colder air moves in behind the cold
front progged to move through the CWA Sat night. Precipitation will
gradually end Sun night from east to west as the system progresses
eastward.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 511 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR conditions will prevail through the initial portion of the TAF
period. Expecting the cold front to push through the area around 05Z
with gusty winds out of the NW behind the boundary. MVFR ceilings
will work their way in from the NW following the frontal passage around
09Z, with increasing winds gusting to 30kts. This feature will remain
in place overnight and into the morning hours prior to scattering out
in the early afternoon Thursday. NW winds are expected to weaken
slightly, though gusts will continue up to 25kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 290016
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
616 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 615 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Near-record warm temperatures will be swept out of the region
tonight by a fairly strong cold front, which will pack a bit of a
punch with sharply colder temperatures and northwest winds gusting
between 25 and 35 mph after midnight. Thursday`s temperatures behind
the front will only manage a small climb into the 40s as cold air
continues to push into the region, and Friday`s highs will be even
cooler in the upper 30s to low 40s as colder air continues to filter
down.

We`re continuing to watch two systems that will push into the region
by Saturday, creating a pretty good potential for some much needed
precipitation throughout the CWA. Light precipitation will likely
develop out ahead of the southern wave on Saturday, but p-type
remains somewhat complicated. Based on the preexisting warm ground,
fairly warm (for late January) temperatures, and southerly winds/
warm-air advection regime, snow accumulations during the daytime
hours seem unlikely. Wet-bulb temperature profiles still indicate
periods of snow throughout the day, so have opted to continue the
rain/snow mix through much of the area, but at the same time have
hedged downward on the probability of snow due to surface wet-bulb
temperatures and the aforementioned relative warmth in place.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 615 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

The later portion of the forecast period remains complicated with a
longwave trough deepening across the desert southwest and a
shortwave trough moving down out of Canada Rockies. These systems
will begin to merge Sat across the Plains with increasing WWA ahead
of the system. Previous models have a more pronounced shortwave
trough that would deepen as it moved out into the Northern Plains,
however, recent models runs have dampened this wave out as it
translates eastward. Ensemble analysis has a number of members
deepening the system and others dampening the system, thus there is
still limited consensus on shortwave evolution. If the shortwave
trough is dampened and surface low does not deepen, snow potential
will be limited. Temperature profile also proves tricky in
determining snowfall accumulations with colder air lagging a bit
near the surface. Depending on the depth of this warmer air,
precipitation could start out as a rain-snow mix and then
transitioning to all snow as colder air moves in behind the cold
front progged to move through the CWA Sat night. Precipitation will
gradually end Sun night from east to west as the system progresses
eastward.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 511 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR conditions will prevail through the initial portion of the TAF
period. Expecting the cold front to push through the area around 05Z
with gusty winds out of the NW behind the boundary. MVFR ceilings
will work their way in from the NW following the frontal passage around
09Z, with increasing winds gusting to 30kts. This feature will remain
in place overnight and into the morning hours prior to scattering out
in the early afternoon Thursday. NW winds are expected to weaken
slightly, though gusts will continue up to 25kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KLSX 282338
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
538 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 402 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Shortwave over the Nebraska panhandle and eastern CO and associated
surface low ahead of it over eastern Nebraska will move eastward
through northern MO and southern IA tonight.  The surface low will
drag a cold front southeastward through our forecast area late
tonight and Thursday morning.  Most of the models have the
precipitation north of the surface low track, although the ECMWF
model does generate light qpf across IL already this evening in the
warm air advection regime ahead of the shortwave.  The models were
also depicting upper level divergence centered over northeast MO and
west central IL, mainly late tonight in the left exit region of an
upper level jet streak dropping into southwest MO.  The quality and
depth of moisture is quite limited with this system so will only
include slight chance pops across west centrl and southwest IL,
mainly late tonight into Thursday morning.   A tight surface
pressure gradient along with a strong southwesterly low level jet
will lead to relatively strong surface winds for the nightime
hours.  Low temperatures will be above normal tonight as the strong
cold air advection behind the front will not impact most of the area
until Thursday morning.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 402 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Colder conditions are expected on Thursday due to low level cold air
advection with strong and gusty northwest winds behind the cold
front, along with post frontal low level cloudiness to limit solar
insolation.  Little diurnal temperature range is expected with some
areas likely having nearly steady or slightly falling temperatures
during the late morning and afternoon hours.  These clouds should
clear out Thursday night as subsidence increases over our area as a
strong surface ridge over the northern Plains builds southeastward
into the region.  Cold conditions will continue Thursday night and
Friday with near normal temperatures for late January.
Precipitation is expected to spread into our area by Saturday
afternoon and evening as moisture spreads into our region ahead of
the southwestern US upper level low, and as a strong northern stream
shortwave approaches from the northern Plains.  Initially it appears
that surface temperatures will be warm enough Saturday afternoon
into the evening that any precipiation at this time should fall as
liquid rain.  As a cold front sags southward through our forecast
area Saturday night into Sunday as the upper level trough gradually
deepens over the northern Plains and Great Lakes region the
precipitation should change over to snow.  The ECMWF model has most
of its QPF along and south of I-70 Saturday night and Sunday.  The
GFS is similar although it does have a little more qpf across
northern MO and west central IL compared to the ECMWF.  There has
been plenty of model differences along with run to run
inconsistencies with this weekend storm system and hence it has been
difficult to determine precipitation amounts and types across our
area.  For now it does appear that at least a portion of our
forecast area will see accumulating snow Saturday night and Sunday,
but the snowfall amounts and where the maximum axis of snow will
occur is still in question.  Much colder, below normal temperatures
can be expected for Sunday night through Monday night with the
models dropping the -12 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward into our
forecast area Sunday afternoon.  Monday and Tuesday will likely be
dry as snow associated with northwest flow shortwaves should be
north of our area, and any precipitation associated with the
southwest US upper level low finally moving eastward through the
southern Plains and Gulf Coast region will be well south of our area.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 525 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Next weather system will move through the bi-state area overnight
tonight. Terminals are expected to remain dry but impacts include
some low-level wind shear tonight along with some MVFR ceilings
behind the passage of the cold front. Wind gusts will subside this
evening before ramping back up late tonight/early Thursday after
frontal passage as winds become northwesterly. Ceilings are
expected to gradually lift during the day on Thursday before
scattering out by afternoon.


Specifics for KSTL:

Next weather system will move through the terminal overnight
tonight. System is expected to pass through dry but impacts include some
low-level wind shear tonight along with some MVFR ceilings behind
the passage of the cold front. Wind gusts will subside this
evening before ramping back up late tonight/early Thursday after
frontal passage as winds become northwesterly. Ceilings are
expected to gradually lift during the day on Thursday before
scattering out by afternoon.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 282338
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
538 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 402 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Shortwave over the Nebraska panhandle and eastern CO and associated
surface low ahead of it over eastern Nebraska will move eastward
through northern MO and southern IA tonight.  The surface low will
drag a cold front southeastward through our forecast area late
tonight and Thursday morning.  Most of the models have the
precipitation north of the surface low track, although the ECMWF
model does generate light qpf across IL already this evening in the
warm air advection regime ahead of the shortwave.  The models were
also depicting upper level divergence centered over northeast MO and
west central IL, mainly late tonight in the left exit region of an
upper level jet streak dropping into southwest MO.  The quality and
depth of moisture is quite limited with this system so will only
include slight chance pops across west centrl and southwest IL,
mainly late tonight into Thursday morning.   A tight surface
pressure gradient along with a strong southwesterly low level jet
will lead to relatively strong surface winds for the nightime
hours.  Low temperatures will be above normal tonight as the strong
cold air advection behind the front will not impact most of the area
until Thursday morning.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 402 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Colder conditions are expected on Thursday due to low level cold air
advection with strong and gusty northwest winds behind the cold
front, along with post frontal low level cloudiness to limit solar
insolation.  Little diurnal temperature range is expected with some
areas likely having nearly steady or slightly falling temperatures
during the late morning and afternoon hours.  These clouds should
clear out Thursday night as subsidence increases over our area as a
strong surface ridge over the northern Plains builds southeastward
into the region.  Cold conditions will continue Thursday night and
Friday with near normal temperatures for late January.
Precipitation is expected to spread into our area by Saturday
afternoon and evening as moisture spreads into our region ahead of
the southwestern US upper level low, and as a strong northern stream
shortwave approaches from the northern Plains.  Initially it appears
that surface temperatures will be warm enough Saturday afternoon
into the evening that any precipiation at this time should fall as
liquid rain.  As a cold front sags southward through our forecast
area Saturday night into Sunday as the upper level trough gradually
deepens over the northern Plains and Great Lakes region the
precipitation should change over to snow.  The ECMWF model has most
of its QPF along and south of I-70 Saturday night and Sunday.  The
GFS is similar although it does have a little more qpf across
northern MO and west central IL compared to the ECMWF.  There has
been plenty of model differences along with run to run
inconsistencies with this weekend storm system and hence it has been
difficult to determine precipitation amounts and types across our
area.  For now it does appear that at least a portion of our
forecast area will see accumulating snow Saturday night and Sunday,
but the snowfall amounts and where the maximum axis of snow will
occur is still in question.  Much colder, below normal temperatures
can be expected for Sunday night through Monday night with the
models dropping the -12 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward into our
forecast area Sunday afternoon.  Monday and Tuesday will likely be
dry as snow associated with northwest flow shortwaves should be
north of our area, and any precipitation associated with the
southwest US upper level low finally moving eastward through the
southern Plains and Gulf Coast region will be well south of our area.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 525 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Next weather system will move through the bi-state area overnight
tonight. Terminals are expected to remain dry but impacts include
some low-level wind shear tonight along with some MVFR ceilings
behind the passage of the cold front. Wind gusts will subside this
evening before ramping back up late tonight/early Thursday after
frontal passage as winds become northwesterly. Ceilings are
expected to gradually lift during the day on Thursday before
scattering out by afternoon.


Specifics for KSTL:

Next weather system will move through the terminal overnight
tonight. System is expected to pass through dry but impacts include some
low-level wind shear tonight along with some MVFR ceilings behind
the passage of the cold front. Wind gusts will subside this
evening before ramping back up late tonight/early Thursday after
frontal passage as winds become northwesterly. Ceilings are
expected to gradually lift during the day on Thursday before
scattering out by afternoon.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 282338
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
538 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 402 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Shortwave over the Nebraska panhandle and eastern CO and associated
surface low ahead of it over eastern Nebraska will move eastward
through northern MO and southern IA tonight.  The surface low will
drag a cold front southeastward through our forecast area late
tonight and Thursday morning.  Most of the models have the
precipitation north of the surface low track, although the ECMWF
model does generate light qpf across IL already this evening in the
warm air advection regime ahead of the shortwave.  The models were
also depicting upper level divergence centered over northeast MO and
west central IL, mainly late tonight in the left exit region of an
upper level jet streak dropping into southwest MO.  The quality and
depth of moisture is quite limited with this system so will only
include slight chance pops across west centrl and southwest IL,
mainly late tonight into Thursday morning.   A tight surface
pressure gradient along with a strong southwesterly low level jet
will lead to relatively strong surface winds for the nightime
hours.  Low temperatures will be above normal tonight as the strong
cold air advection behind the front will not impact most of the area
until Thursday morning.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 402 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Colder conditions are expected on Thursday due to low level cold air
advection with strong and gusty northwest winds behind the cold
front, along with post frontal low level cloudiness to limit solar
insolation.  Little diurnal temperature range is expected with some
areas likely having nearly steady or slightly falling temperatures
during the late morning and afternoon hours.  These clouds should
clear out Thursday night as subsidence increases over our area as a
strong surface ridge over the northern Plains builds southeastward
into the region.  Cold conditions will continue Thursday night and
Friday with near normal temperatures for late January.
Precipitation is expected to spread into our area by Saturday
afternoon and evening as moisture spreads into our region ahead of
the southwestern US upper level low, and as a strong northern stream
shortwave approaches from the northern Plains.  Initially it appears
that surface temperatures will be warm enough Saturday afternoon
into the evening that any precipiation at this time should fall as
liquid rain.  As a cold front sags southward through our forecast
area Saturday night into Sunday as the upper level trough gradually
deepens over the northern Plains and Great Lakes region the
precipitation should change over to snow.  The ECMWF model has most
of its QPF along and south of I-70 Saturday night and Sunday.  The
GFS is similar although it does have a little more qpf across
northern MO and west central IL compared to the ECMWF.  There has
been plenty of model differences along with run to run
inconsistencies with this weekend storm system and hence it has been
difficult to determine precipitation amounts and types across our
area.  For now it does appear that at least a portion of our
forecast area will see accumulating snow Saturday night and Sunday,
but the snowfall amounts and where the maximum axis of snow will
occur is still in question.  Much colder, below normal temperatures
can be expected for Sunday night through Monday night with the
models dropping the -12 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward into our
forecast area Sunday afternoon.  Monday and Tuesday will likely be
dry as snow associated with northwest flow shortwaves should be
north of our area, and any precipitation associated with the
southwest US upper level low finally moving eastward through the
southern Plains and Gulf Coast region will be well south of our area.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 525 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Next weather system will move through the bi-state area overnight
tonight. Terminals are expected to remain dry but impacts include
some low-level wind shear tonight along with some MVFR ceilings
behind the passage of the cold front. Wind gusts will subside this
evening before ramping back up late tonight/early Thursday after
frontal passage as winds become northwesterly. Ceilings are
expected to gradually lift during the day on Thursday before
scattering out by afternoon.


Specifics for KSTL:

Next weather system will move through the terminal overnight
tonight. System is expected to pass through dry but impacts include some
low-level wind shear tonight along with some MVFR ceilings behind
the passage of the cold front. Wind gusts will subside this
evening before ramping back up late tonight/early Thursday after
frontal passage as winds become northwesterly. Ceilings are
expected to gradually lift during the day on Thursday before
scattering out by afternoon.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 282338
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
538 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 402 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Shortwave over the Nebraska panhandle and eastern CO and associated
surface low ahead of it over eastern Nebraska will move eastward
through northern MO and southern IA tonight.  The surface low will
drag a cold front southeastward through our forecast area late
tonight and Thursday morning.  Most of the models have the
precipitation north of the surface low track, although the ECMWF
model does generate light qpf across IL already this evening in the
warm air advection regime ahead of the shortwave.  The models were
also depicting upper level divergence centered over northeast MO and
west central IL, mainly late tonight in the left exit region of an
upper level jet streak dropping into southwest MO.  The quality and
depth of moisture is quite limited with this system so will only
include slight chance pops across west centrl and southwest IL,
mainly late tonight into Thursday morning.   A tight surface
pressure gradient along with a strong southwesterly low level jet
will lead to relatively strong surface winds for the nightime
hours.  Low temperatures will be above normal tonight as the strong
cold air advection behind the front will not impact most of the area
until Thursday morning.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 402 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Colder conditions are expected on Thursday due to low level cold air
advection with strong and gusty northwest winds behind the cold
front, along with post frontal low level cloudiness to limit solar
insolation.  Little diurnal temperature range is expected with some
areas likely having nearly steady or slightly falling temperatures
during the late morning and afternoon hours.  These clouds should
clear out Thursday night as subsidence increases over our area as a
strong surface ridge over the northern Plains builds southeastward
into the region.  Cold conditions will continue Thursday night and
Friday with near normal temperatures for late January.
Precipitation is expected to spread into our area by Saturday
afternoon and evening as moisture spreads into our region ahead of
the southwestern US upper level low, and as a strong northern stream
shortwave approaches from the northern Plains.  Initially it appears
that surface temperatures will be warm enough Saturday afternoon
into the evening that any precipiation at this time should fall as
liquid rain.  As a cold front sags southward through our forecast
area Saturday night into Sunday as the upper level trough gradually
deepens over the northern Plains and Great Lakes region the
precipitation should change over to snow.  The ECMWF model has most
of its QPF along and south of I-70 Saturday night and Sunday.  The
GFS is similar although it does have a little more qpf across
northern MO and west central IL compared to the ECMWF.  There has
been plenty of model differences along with run to run
inconsistencies with this weekend storm system and hence it has been
difficult to determine precipitation amounts and types across our
area.  For now it does appear that at least a portion of our
forecast area will see accumulating snow Saturday night and Sunday,
but the snowfall amounts and where the maximum axis of snow will
occur is still in question.  Much colder, below normal temperatures
can be expected for Sunday night through Monday night with the
models dropping the -12 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward into our
forecast area Sunday afternoon.  Monday and Tuesday will likely be
dry as snow associated with northwest flow shortwaves should be
north of our area, and any precipitation associated with the
southwest US upper level low finally moving eastward through the
southern Plains and Gulf Coast region will be well south of our area.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 525 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Next weather system will move through the bi-state area overnight
tonight. Terminals are expected to remain dry but impacts include
some low-level wind shear tonight along with some MVFR ceilings
behind the passage of the cold front. Wind gusts will subside this
evening before ramping back up late tonight/early Thursday after
frontal passage as winds become northwesterly. Ceilings are
expected to gradually lift during the day on Thursday before
scattering out by afternoon.


Specifics for KSTL:

Next weather system will move through the terminal overnight
tonight. System is expected to pass through dry but impacts include some
low-level wind shear tonight along with some MVFR ceilings behind
the passage of the cold front. Wind gusts will subside this
evening before ramping back up late tonight/early Thursday after
frontal passage as winds become northwesterly. Ceilings are
expected to gradually lift during the day on Thursday before
scattering out by afternoon.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 282333
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
533 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Quiet and mild weather expected through this period. Surface high
pushes east of the forecast area tonight as shortwave trough begins
to drop through the central plains. As this occurs surface pressure
gradient begins to tighten as low level warm advection increases.
With dry atmosphere expect little in the way of clouds. Biggest
sensible weather will be warm temperatures Wednesday along with
strengthening winds. Model guidance trend has been upward with
regards to afternoon highs, especially in the western areas and thus
trended slightly warmer than previous forecast. Will likely see
readings in the lower 70s across southeast Kansas and far western
Missouri...with mid and upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks. As for
winds expect them to remain below advisory criteria...but will
likely see gusts to 30 to 35 mph...especially in areas west of
Interstate 49.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Aforementioned shortwave trough will remain north of the area
Wednesday night...but will drag a cold front across the area late
Wednesday night into the early morning hours of Thursday. Outside of
just some clouds, precipitation will remain well north and east of
the area. However, temperatures will fall back to seasonable normals
for both Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds back in from
the northern Plains.

Attention then turns to eastward progression of a 500mb southwest
conus low and is associated surface reflection. Medium range models
have trended a little slower with the precipitation shield, with the
12Z GEM keeping Friday night dry and and the 12Z GFS pushing it to
the Kansas/Missouri border by 12Z. Models still indicating that bulk
of precipitation will fall Saturday night which becomes more
problematic in terms of precipitation type. Broad low level warm
advection ahead of the system expected to keep temperatures up on
Saturday. Still enough model differences in the low level thermal
profiles to add much specificity to the grids, but the highest
probability for any accumulating snow would be Saturday night. For
now will continue the rain and snow for the grids. Precipitation
looks to end Sunday with high pressure then settling in Monday and
Tuesday for quiet but seasonable weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 527 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Low level wind shear conditions will develop this evening ahead of
an approaching cold front. Southerly to southwesterly winds ahead
of the front will then shift to the northwest later tonight as the
front passes...with low level wind shear diminishing. Confidence
has then increased that MVFR ceilings will develop Thursday
morning behind that front. We have therefore included a prevailing
MVFR group at all three southwestern Missouri aerodromes. Ceilings
will gradually rise throughout the day with VFR expected by late
afternoon. Meanwhile, those northwesterly winds will become gusty
early in the morning and will remain that way for much of the day.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KEAX 282319
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
519 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Today will signal the last day to the extended stretch of winter
warmth that we have experienced. Beyond today, winter-like
temperatures and conditions will return. The main concern during
this period will be the potential for accumulating snow over the
weekend.

A ridge of high pressure is shifting east into the Ohio Valley early
this morning. Back to the west an upper level shortwave is moving
through the Rockies allowing a cold front to strengthen across the
northern and central Plains. This will cause the pressure gradient
to tighten across the area providing for strong southerly winds and
good mixing today. 850mb temperatures will range between 13C-16C
providing for afternoon highs in the upper 50s to the lower 70s
across the southwestern CWA. Tonight the aforementioned upper level
shortwave moves through the Plains and into the local area forcing a
cold front through the area. By Thursday, the upper level trough
will push east of the area leaving the region under northwest flow
aloft. At the surface, strong CAA will be ongoing behind the cold
front. That, accompanied with mostly cloudy skies will provide for a
return to more seasonable highs in the low to mid 40s. High pressure
will move into the area Thursday night and remain over the area
through the day on Friday. A cold start with lows in the low to mid
20s, coupled with weak mixed will only yield highs in the mid 30s to
lower 40s on Friday.

The forecast become challenging over the weekend as an evolving
storm system gets organized and poised to bring precipitation to the
area. The system in question will involve the merging of a deep
trough over the southwestern CONUS on Saturday and an upper level
shortwave diving south out of the Canadian Rockies into the central
Plains. These two system look to merge over the Plains on Saturday.
Precipitation will move into the area on Saturday morning out ahead
of a cold front. P-type on Saturday is still uncertain at this point
however, model sounding suggest that near surface temperatures will
be warm enough to support rain at this time. However, there are ice
crystals in the snow growth zone so precipitation may fall as snow
if the warm layer near the surface is not as deep as represented
however, snow is not expected to accumulate. Saturday night the cold
front will push through the area with CAA behind it. This should
sufficiently cool the entire column below freezing. The question at
this time is there ice crystals in the snow growth zone. Soundings
suggest that there are and that should provide for a period of snow
Saturday night into Sunday. The phased upper level trough will move
through the area on Sunday with snow coming to an end from west to
east during the day. Highs Sunday will only reach into the upper 20s
to mid 30s. Surface high pressure then quickly moves into the
forecast area Sunday night providing for good radiational cooling.
Lows by Monday morning will be the coldest we have seen since the
beginning of January in the single digits and lower teens. Monday
will be dry and cold as surface high pressure remains on the area
with highs in the teens in the upper teens to mid 20s. Models are
suggesting a shortwave will move through the region on Monday
night/Tuesday but spatial and timing difference among the models
preclude more than slight chance POPs for that timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 511 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR conditions will prevail through the initial portion of the TAF
period. Expecting the cold front to push through the area around 05Z
with gusty winds out of the NW behind the boundary. MVFR ceilings
will work their way in from the NW following the frontal passage around
09Z, with increasing winds gusting to 30kts. This feature will remain
in place overnight and into the morning hours prior to scattering out
in the early afternoon Thursday. NW winds are expected to weaken
slightly, though gusts will continue up to 25kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 282319
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
519 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Today will signal the last day to the extended stretch of winter
warmth that we have experienced. Beyond today, winter-like
temperatures and conditions will return. The main concern during
this period will be the potential for accumulating snow over the
weekend.

A ridge of high pressure is shifting east into the Ohio Valley early
this morning. Back to the west an upper level shortwave is moving
through the Rockies allowing a cold front to strengthen across the
northern and central Plains. This will cause the pressure gradient
to tighten across the area providing for strong southerly winds and
good mixing today. 850mb temperatures will range between 13C-16C
providing for afternoon highs in the upper 50s to the lower 70s
across the southwestern CWA. Tonight the aforementioned upper level
shortwave moves through the Plains and into the local area forcing a
cold front through the area. By Thursday, the upper level trough
will push east of the area leaving the region under northwest flow
aloft. At the surface, strong CAA will be ongoing behind the cold
front. That, accompanied with mostly cloudy skies will provide for a
return to more seasonable highs in the low to mid 40s. High pressure
will move into the area Thursday night and remain over the area
through the day on Friday. A cold start with lows in the low to mid
20s, coupled with weak mixed will only yield highs in the mid 30s to
lower 40s on Friday.

The forecast become challenging over the weekend as an evolving
storm system gets organized and poised to bring precipitation to the
area. The system in question will involve the merging of a deep
trough over the southwestern CONUS on Saturday and an upper level
shortwave diving south out of the Canadian Rockies into the central
Plains. These two system look to merge over the Plains on Saturday.
Precipitation will move into the area on Saturday morning out ahead
of a cold front. P-type on Saturday is still uncertain at this point
however, model sounding suggest that near surface temperatures will
be warm enough to support rain at this time. However, there are ice
crystals in the snow growth zone so precipitation may fall as snow
if the warm layer near the surface is not as deep as represented
however, snow is not expected to accumulate. Saturday night the cold
front will push through the area with CAA behind it. This should
sufficiently cool the entire column below freezing. The question at
this time is there ice crystals in the snow growth zone. Soundings
suggest that there are and that should provide for a period of snow
Saturday night into Sunday. The phased upper level trough will move
through the area on Sunday with snow coming to an end from west to
east during the day. Highs Sunday will only reach into the upper 20s
to mid 30s. Surface high pressure then quickly moves into the
forecast area Sunday night providing for good radiational cooling.
Lows by Monday morning will be the coldest we have seen since the
beginning of January in the single digits and lower teens. Monday
will be dry and cold as surface high pressure remains on the area
with highs in the teens in the upper teens to mid 20s. Models are
suggesting a shortwave will move through the region on Monday
night/Tuesday but spatial and timing difference among the models
preclude more than slight chance POPs for that timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 511 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR conditions will prevail through the initial portion of the TAF
period. Expecting the cold front to push through the area around 05Z
with gusty winds out of the NW behind the boundary. MVFR ceilings
will work their way in from the NW following the frontal passage around
09Z, with increasing winds gusting to 30kts. This feature will remain
in place overnight and into the morning hours prior to scattering out
in the early afternoon Thursday. NW winds are expected to weaken
slightly, though gusts will continue up to 25kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 282319
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
519 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Today will signal the last day to the extended stretch of winter
warmth that we have experienced. Beyond today, winter-like
temperatures and conditions will return. The main concern during
this period will be the potential for accumulating snow over the
weekend.

A ridge of high pressure is shifting east into the Ohio Valley early
this morning. Back to the west an upper level shortwave is moving
through the Rockies allowing a cold front to strengthen across the
northern and central Plains. This will cause the pressure gradient
to tighten across the area providing for strong southerly winds and
good mixing today. 850mb temperatures will range between 13C-16C
providing for afternoon highs in the upper 50s to the lower 70s
across the southwestern CWA. Tonight the aforementioned upper level
shortwave moves through the Plains and into the local area forcing a
cold front through the area. By Thursday, the upper level trough
will push east of the area leaving the region under northwest flow
aloft. At the surface, strong CAA will be ongoing behind the cold
front. That, accompanied with mostly cloudy skies will provide for a
return to more seasonable highs in the low to mid 40s. High pressure
will move into the area Thursday night and remain over the area
through the day on Friday. A cold start with lows in the low to mid
20s, coupled with weak mixed will only yield highs in the mid 30s to
lower 40s on Friday.

The forecast become challenging over the weekend as an evolving
storm system gets organized and poised to bring precipitation to the
area. The system in question will involve the merging of a deep
trough over the southwestern CONUS on Saturday and an upper level
shortwave diving south out of the Canadian Rockies into the central
Plains. These two system look to merge over the Plains on Saturday.
Precipitation will move into the area on Saturday morning out ahead
of a cold front. P-type on Saturday is still uncertain at this point
however, model sounding suggest that near surface temperatures will
be warm enough to support rain at this time. However, there are ice
crystals in the snow growth zone so precipitation may fall as snow
if the warm layer near the surface is not as deep as represented
however, snow is not expected to accumulate. Saturday night the cold
front will push through the area with CAA behind it. This should
sufficiently cool the entire column below freezing. The question at
this time is there ice crystals in the snow growth zone. Soundings
suggest that there are and that should provide for a period of snow
Saturday night into Sunday. The phased upper level trough will move
through the area on Sunday with snow coming to an end from west to
east during the day. Highs Sunday will only reach into the upper 20s
to mid 30s. Surface high pressure then quickly moves into the
forecast area Sunday night providing for good radiational cooling.
Lows by Monday morning will be the coldest we have seen since the
beginning of January in the single digits and lower teens. Monday
will be dry and cold as surface high pressure remains on the area
with highs in the teens in the upper teens to mid 20s. Models are
suggesting a shortwave will move through the region on Monday
night/Tuesday but spatial and timing difference among the models
preclude more than slight chance POPs for that timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 511 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR conditions will prevail through the initial portion of the TAF
period. Expecting the cold front to push through the area around 05Z
with gusty winds out of the NW behind the boundary. MVFR ceilings
will work their way in from the NW following the frontal passage around
09Z, with increasing winds gusting to 30kts. This feature will remain
in place overnight and into the morning hours prior to scattering out
in the early afternoon Thursday. NW winds are expected to weaken
slightly, though gusts will continue up to 25kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 282319
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
519 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Today will signal the last day to the extended stretch of winter
warmth that we have experienced. Beyond today, winter-like
temperatures and conditions will return. The main concern during
this period will be the potential for accumulating snow over the
weekend.

A ridge of high pressure is shifting east into the Ohio Valley early
this morning. Back to the west an upper level shortwave is moving
through the Rockies allowing a cold front to strengthen across the
northern and central Plains. This will cause the pressure gradient
to tighten across the area providing for strong southerly winds and
good mixing today. 850mb temperatures will range between 13C-16C
providing for afternoon highs in the upper 50s to the lower 70s
across the southwestern CWA. Tonight the aforementioned upper level
shortwave moves through the Plains and into the local area forcing a
cold front through the area. By Thursday, the upper level trough
will push east of the area leaving the region under northwest flow
aloft. At the surface, strong CAA will be ongoing behind the cold
front. That, accompanied with mostly cloudy skies will provide for a
return to more seasonable highs in the low to mid 40s. High pressure
will move into the area Thursday night and remain over the area
through the day on Friday. A cold start with lows in the low to mid
20s, coupled with weak mixed will only yield highs in the mid 30s to
lower 40s on Friday.

The forecast become challenging over the weekend as an evolving
storm system gets organized and poised to bring precipitation to the
area. The system in question will involve the merging of a deep
trough over the southwestern CONUS on Saturday and an upper level
shortwave diving south out of the Canadian Rockies into the central
Plains. These two system look to merge over the Plains on Saturday.
Precipitation will move into the area on Saturday morning out ahead
of a cold front. P-type on Saturday is still uncertain at this point
however, model sounding suggest that near surface temperatures will
be warm enough to support rain at this time. However, there are ice
crystals in the snow growth zone so precipitation may fall as snow
if the warm layer near the surface is not as deep as represented
however, snow is not expected to accumulate. Saturday night the cold
front will push through the area with CAA behind it. This should
sufficiently cool the entire column below freezing. The question at
this time is there ice crystals in the snow growth zone. Soundings
suggest that there are and that should provide for a period of snow
Saturday night into Sunday. The phased upper level trough will move
through the area on Sunday with snow coming to an end from west to
east during the day. Highs Sunday will only reach into the upper 20s
to mid 30s. Surface high pressure then quickly moves into the
forecast area Sunday night providing for good radiational cooling.
Lows by Monday morning will be the coldest we have seen since the
beginning of January in the single digits and lower teens. Monday
will be dry and cold as surface high pressure remains on the area
with highs in the teens in the upper teens to mid 20s. Models are
suggesting a shortwave will move through the region on Monday
night/Tuesday but spatial and timing difference among the models
preclude more than slight chance POPs for that timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 511 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR conditions will prevail through the initial portion of the TAF
period. Expecting the cold front to push through the area around 05Z
with gusty winds out of the NW behind the boundary. MVFR ceilings
will work their way in from the NW following the frontal passage around
09Z, with increasing winds gusting to 30kts. This feature will remain
in place overnight and into the morning hours prior to scattering out
in the early afternoon Thursday. NW winds are expected to weaken
slightly, though gusts will continue up to 25kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KLSX 282203
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
403 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 402 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Shortwave over the Nebraska panhandle and eastern CO and associated
surface low ahead of it over eastern Nebraska will move eastward
through northern MO and southern IA tonight.  The surface low will
drag a cold front southeastward through our forecast area late
tonight and Thursday morning.  Most of the models have the
precipitation north of the surface low track, although the ECMWF
model does generate light qpf across IL already this evening in the
warm air advection regime ahead of the shortwave.  The models were
also depicting upper level divergence centered over northeast MO and
west central IL, mainly late tonight in the left exit region of an
upper level jet streak dropping into southwest MO.  The quality and
depth of moisture is quite limited with this system so will only
include slight chance pops across west centrl and southwest IL,
mainly late tonight into Thursday morning.   A tight surface
pressure gradient along with a strong southwesterly low level jet
will lead to relatively strong surface winds for the nightime
hours.  Low temperatures will be above normal tonight as the strong
cold air advection behind the front will not impact most of the area
until Thursday morning.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 402 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Colder conditions are expected on Thursday due to low level cold air
advection with strong and gusty northwest winds behind the cold
front, along with post frontal low level cloudiness to limit solar
insolation.  Little diurnal temperature range is expected with some
areas likely having nearly steady or slightly falling temperatures
during the late morning and afternoon hours.  These clouds should
clear out Thursday night as subsidence increases over our area as a
strong surface ridge over the northern Plains builds southeastward
into the region.  Cold conditions will continue Thursday night and
Friday with near normal temperatures for late January.
Precipitation is expected to spread into our area by Saturday
afternoon and evening as moisture spreads into our region ahead of
the southwestern US upper level low, and as a strong northern stream
shortwave approaches from the northern Plains.  Initially it appears
that surface temperatures will be warm enough Saturday afternoon
into the evening that any precipiation at this time should fall as
liquid rain.  As a cold front sags southward through our forecast
area Saturday night into Sunday as the upper level trough gradually
deepens over the northern Plains and Great Lakes region the
precipitation should change over to snow.  The ECMWF model has most
of its QPF along and south of I-70 Saturday night and Sunday.  The
GFS is similar although it does have a little more qpf across
northern MO and west central IL compared to the ECMWF.  There has
been plenty of model differences along with run to run
inconsistencies with this weekend storm system and hence it has been
difficult to determine precipitation amounts and types across our
area.  For now it does appear that at least a portion of our
forecast area will see accumulating snow Saturday night and Sunday,
but the snowfall amounts and where the maximum axis of snow will
occur is still in question.  Much colder, below normal temperatures
can be expected for Sunday night through Monday night with the
models dropping the -12 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward into our
forecast area Sunday afternoon.  Monday and Tuesday will likely be
dry as snow associated with northwest flow shortwaves should be
north of our area, and any precipitation associated with the
southwest US upper level low finally moving eastward through the
southern Plains and Gulf Coast region will be well south of our area.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

VFR flight conditions are expected through this evening with winds
being the main issue. A tight pressure gradient ahead of an
approaching surface low and cold front will result in gusty
southeast winds this afternoon, which should diminish around or
just after sunset. Decoupling of the lower atmosphere after sunset
and the development of a stout south-southwesterly LLJ will
result in LLWS conditions for much of the evening and into the
overnight hours until the cold fropa. The cold front will move
through the TAF sites from northwest to southeast in the 08-12z
time frame accompanied by gusty northwest winds and MVFR flight
conditions.


Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions will persist this afternoon and evening with
gusty southeast winds into the early evening. The surface wind
will diminish during the evening and this will result in the onset
of LLWS as a stout south-southwest LLJ evolves. A strong cold
front will then move through the terminal in the 11-12z time frame
accompanied by gusty northwest winds and MVFR flight conditions.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 282203
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
403 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 402 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Shortwave over the Nebraska panhandle and eastern CO and associated
surface low ahead of it over eastern Nebraska will move eastward
through northern MO and southern IA tonight.  The surface low will
drag a cold front southeastward through our forecast area late
tonight and Thursday morning.  Most of the models have the
precipitation north of the surface low track, although the ECMWF
model does generate light qpf across IL already this evening in the
warm air advection regime ahead of the shortwave.  The models were
also depicting upper level divergence centered over northeast MO and
west central IL, mainly late tonight in the left exit region of an
upper level jet streak dropping into southwest MO.  The quality and
depth of moisture is quite limited with this system so will only
include slight chance pops across west centrl and southwest IL,
mainly late tonight into Thursday morning.   A tight surface
pressure gradient along with a strong southwesterly low level jet
will lead to relatively strong surface winds for the nightime
hours.  Low temperatures will be above normal tonight as the strong
cold air advection behind the front will not impact most of the area
until Thursday morning.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 402 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Colder conditions are expected on Thursday due to low level cold air
advection with strong and gusty northwest winds behind the cold
front, along with post frontal low level cloudiness to limit solar
insolation.  Little diurnal temperature range is expected with some
areas likely having nearly steady or slightly falling temperatures
during the late morning and afternoon hours.  These clouds should
clear out Thursday night as subsidence increases over our area as a
strong surface ridge over the northern Plains builds southeastward
into the region.  Cold conditions will continue Thursday night and
Friday with near normal temperatures for late January.
Precipitation is expected to spread into our area by Saturday
afternoon and evening as moisture spreads into our region ahead of
the southwestern US upper level low, and as a strong northern stream
shortwave approaches from the northern Plains.  Initially it appears
that surface temperatures will be warm enough Saturday afternoon
into the evening that any precipiation at this time should fall as
liquid rain.  As a cold front sags southward through our forecast
area Saturday night into Sunday as the upper level trough gradually
deepens over the northern Plains and Great Lakes region the
precipitation should change over to snow.  The ECMWF model has most
of its QPF along and south of I-70 Saturday night and Sunday.  The
GFS is similar although it does have a little more qpf across
northern MO and west central IL compared to the ECMWF.  There has
been plenty of model differences along with run to run
inconsistencies with this weekend storm system and hence it has been
difficult to determine precipitation amounts and types across our
area.  For now it does appear that at least a portion of our
forecast area will see accumulating snow Saturday night and Sunday,
but the snowfall amounts and where the maximum axis of snow will
occur is still in question.  Much colder, below normal temperatures
can be expected for Sunday night through Monday night with the
models dropping the -12 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward into our
forecast area Sunday afternoon.  Monday and Tuesday will likely be
dry as snow associated with northwest flow shortwaves should be
north of our area, and any precipitation associated with the
southwest US upper level low finally moving eastward through the
southern Plains and Gulf Coast region will be well south of our area.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

VFR flight conditions are expected through this evening with winds
being the main issue. A tight pressure gradient ahead of an
approaching surface low and cold front will result in gusty
southeast winds this afternoon, which should diminish around or
just after sunset. Decoupling of the lower atmosphere after sunset
and the development of a stout south-southwesterly LLJ will
result in LLWS conditions for much of the evening and into the
overnight hours until the cold fropa. The cold front will move
through the TAF sites from northwest to southeast in the 08-12z
time frame accompanied by gusty northwest winds and MVFR flight
conditions.


Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions will persist this afternoon and evening with
gusty southeast winds into the early evening. The surface wind
will diminish during the evening and this will result in the onset
of LLWS as a stout south-southwest LLJ evolves. A strong cold
front will then move through the terminal in the 11-12z time frame
accompanied by gusty northwest winds and MVFR flight conditions.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 282202
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
402 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Today will signal the last day to the extended stretch of winter
warmth that we have experienced. Beyond today, winter-like
temperatures and conditions will return. The main concern during
this period will be the potential for accumulating snow over the
weekend.

A ridge of high pressure is shifting east into the Ohio Valley early
this morning. Back to the west an upper level shortwave is moving
through the Rockies allowing a cold front to strengthen across the
northern and central Plains. This will cause the pressure gradient
to tighten across the area providing for strong southerly winds and
good mixing today. 850mb temperatures will range between 13C-16C
providing for afternoon highs in the upper 50s to the lower 70s
across the southwestern CWA. Tonight the aforementioned upper level
shortwave moves through the Plains and into the local area forcing a
cold front through the area. By Thursday, the upper level trough
will push east of the area leaving the region under northwest flow
aloft. At the surface, strong CAA will be ongoing behind the cold
front. That, accompanied with mostly cloudy skies will provide for a
return to more seasonable highs in the low to mid 40s. High pressure
will move into the area Thursday night and remain over the area
through the day on Friday. A cold start with lows in the low to mid
20s, coupled with weak mixed will only yield highs in the mid 30s to
lower 40s on Friday.

The forecast become challenging over the weekend as an evolving
storm system gets organized and poised to bring precipitation to the
area. The system in question will involve the merging of a deep
trough over the southwestern CONUS on Saturday and an upper level
shortwave diving south out of the Canadian Rockies into the central
Plains. These two system look to merge over the Plains on Saturday.
Precipitation will move into the area on Saturday morning out ahead
of a cold front. P-type on Saturday is still uncertain at this point
however, model sounding suggest that near surface temperatures will
be warm enough to support rain at this time. However, there are ice
crystals in the snow growth zone so precipitation may fall as snow
if the warm layer near the surface is not as deep as represented
however, snow is not expected to accumulate. Saturday night the cold
front will push through the area with CAA behind it. This should
sufficiently cool the entire column below freezing. The question at
this time is there ice crystals in the snow growth zone. Soundings
suggest that there are and that should provide for a period of snow
Saturday night into Sunday. The phased upper level trough will move
through the area on Sunday with snow coming to an end from west to
east during the day. Highs Sunday will only reach into the upper 20s
to mid 30s. Surface high pressure then quickly moves into the
forecast area Sunday night providing for good radiational cooling.
Lows by Monday morning will be the coldest we have seen since the
beginning of January in the single digits and lower teens. Monday
will be dry and cold as surface high pressure remains on the area
with highs in the teens in the upper teens to mid 20s. Models are
suggesting a shortwave will move through the region on Monday
night/Tuesday but spatial and timing difference among the models
preclude more than slight chance POPs for that timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1116 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the afternoon and
evening as scattered cirrus drifts across the region. Winds will
increase out of the south southwest within the next hour or so, and
should gust between 20 and 25 kts through sunset. Gusts should
briefly drop off between sunset and the arrival of the cold front,
then will veer sharply to the northwest at sustained speeds up to 20
kts with gusts up to 30 kts. Broken MVFR ceilings are expected to
follow behind the front, and could possibly drop below 2 kft after
09z.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 282202
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
402 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Today will signal the last day to the extended stretch of winter
warmth that we have experienced. Beyond today, winter-like
temperatures and conditions will return. The main concern during
this period will be the potential for accumulating snow over the
weekend.

A ridge of high pressure is shifting east into the Ohio Valley early
this morning. Back to the west an upper level shortwave is moving
through the Rockies allowing a cold front to strengthen across the
northern and central Plains. This will cause the pressure gradient
to tighten across the area providing for strong southerly winds and
good mixing today. 850mb temperatures will range between 13C-16C
providing for afternoon highs in the upper 50s to the lower 70s
across the southwestern CWA. Tonight the aforementioned upper level
shortwave moves through the Plains and into the local area forcing a
cold front through the area. By Thursday, the upper level trough
will push east of the area leaving the region under northwest flow
aloft. At the surface, strong CAA will be ongoing behind the cold
front. That, accompanied with mostly cloudy skies will provide for a
return to more seasonable highs in the low to mid 40s. High pressure
will move into the area Thursday night and remain over the area
through the day on Friday. A cold start with lows in the low to mid
20s, coupled with weak mixed will only yield highs in the mid 30s to
lower 40s on Friday.

The forecast become challenging over the weekend as an evolving
storm system gets organized and poised to bring precipitation to the
area. The system in question will involve the merging of a deep
trough over the southwestern CONUS on Saturday and an upper level
shortwave diving south out of the Canadian Rockies into the central
Plains. These two system look to merge over the Plains on Saturday.
Precipitation will move into the area on Saturday morning out ahead
of a cold front. P-type on Saturday is still uncertain at this point
however, model sounding suggest that near surface temperatures will
be warm enough to support rain at this time. However, there are ice
crystals in the snow growth zone so precipitation may fall as snow
if the warm layer near the surface is not as deep as represented
however, snow is not expected to accumulate. Saturday night the cold
front will push through the area with CAA behind it. This should
sufficiently cool the entire column below freezing. The question at
this time is there ice crystals in the snow growth zone. Soundings
suggest that there are and that should provide for a period of snow
Saturday night into Sunday. The phased upper level trough will move
through the area on Sunday with snow coming to an end from west to
east during the day. Highs Sunday will only reach into the upper 20s
to mid 30s. Surface high pressure then quickly moves into the
forecast area Sunday night providing for good radiational cooling.
Lows by Monday morning will be the coldest we have seen since the
beginning of January in the single digits and lower teens. Monday
will be dry and cold as surface high pressure remains on the area
with highs in the teens in the upper teens to mid 20s. Models are
suggesting a shortwave will move through the region on Monday
night/Tuesday but spatial and timing difference among the models
preclude more than slight chance POPs for that timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1116 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the afternoon and
evening as scattered cirrus drifts across the region. Winds will
increase out of the south southwest within the next hour or so, and
should gust between 20 and 25 kts through sunset. Gusts should
briefly drop off between sunset and the arrival of the cold front,
then will veer sharply to the northwest at sustained speeds up to 20
kts with gusts up to 30 kts. Broken MVFR ceilings are expected to
follow behind the front, and could possibly drop below 2 kft after
09z.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 282202
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
402 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Today will signal the last day to the extended stretch of winter
warmth that we have experienced. Beyond today, winter-like
temperatures and conditions will return. The main concern during
this period will be the potential for accumulating snow over the
weekend.

A ridge of high pressure is shifting east into the Ohio Valley early
this morning. Back to the west an upper level shortwave is moving
through the Rockies allowing a cold front to strengthen across the
northern and central Plains. This will cause the pressure gradient
to tighten across the area providing for strong southerly winds and
good mixing today. 850mb temperatures will range between 13C-16C
providing for afternoon highs in the upper 50s to the lower 70s
across the southwestern CWA. Tonight the aforementioned upper level
shortwave moves through the Plains and into the local area forcing a
cold front through the area. By Thursday, the upper level trough
will push east of the area leaving the region under northwest flow
aloft. At the surface, strong CAA will be ongoing behind the cold
front. That, accompanied with mostly cloudy skies will provide for a
return to more seasonable highs in the low to mid 40s. High pressure
will move into the area Thursday night and remain over the area
through the day on Friday. A cold start with lows in the low to mid
20s, coupled with weak mixed will only yield highs in the mid 30s to
lower 40s on Friday.

The forecast become challenging over the weekend as an evolving
storm system gets organized and poised to bring precipitation to the
area. The system in question will involve the merging of a deep
trough over the southwestern CONUS on Saturday and an upper level
shortwave diving south out of the Canadian Rockies into the central
Plains. These two system look to merge over the Plains on Saturday.
Precipitation will move into the area on Saturday morning out ahead
of a cold front. P-type on Saturday is still uncertain at this point
however, model sounding suggest that near surface temperatures will
be warm enough to support rain at this time. However, there are ice
crystals in the snow growth zone so precipitation may fall as snow
if the warm layer near the surface is not as deep as represented
however, snow is not expected to accumulate. Saturday night the cold
front will push through the area with CAA behind it. This should
sufficiently cool the entire column below freezing. The question at
this time is there ice crystals in the snow growth zone. Soundings
suggest that there are and that should provide for a period of snow
Saturday night into Sunday. The phased upper level trough will move
through the area on Sunday with snow coming to an end from west to
east during the day. Highs Sunday will only reach into the upper 20s
to mid 30s. Surface high pressure then quickly moves into the
forecast area Sunday night providing for good radiational cooling.
Lows by Monday morning will be the coldest we have seen since the
beginning of January in the single digits and lower teens. Monday
will be dry and cold as surface high pressure remains on the area
with highs in the teens in the upper teens to mid 20s. Models are
suggesting a shortwave will move through the region on Monday
night/Tuesday but spatial and timing difference among the models
preclude more than slight chance POPs for that timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1116 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the afternoon and
evening as scattered cirrus drifts across the region. Winds will
increase out of the south southwest within the next hour or so, and
should gust between 20 and 25 kts through sunset. Gusts should
briefly drop off between sunset and the arrival of the cold front,
then will veer sharply to the northwest at sustained speeds up to 20
kts with gusts up to 30 kts. Broken MVFR ceilings are expected to
follow behind the front, and could possibly drop below 2 kft after
09z.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 282202
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
402 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Today will signal the last day to the extended stretch of winter
warmth that we have experienced. Beyond today, winter-like
temperatures and conditions will return. The main concern during
this period will be the potential for accumulating snow over the
weekend.

A ridge of high pressure is shifting east into the Ohio Valley early
this morning. Back to the west an upper level shortwave is moving
through the Rockies allowing a cold front to strengthen across the
northern and central Plains. This will cause the pressure gradient
to tighten across the area providing for strong southerly winds and
good mixing today. 850mb temperatures will range between 13C-16C
providing for afternoon highs in the upper 50s to the lower 70s
across the southwestern CWA. Tonight the aforementioned upper level
shortwave moves through the Plains and into the local area forcing a
cold front through the area. By Thursday, the upper level trough
will push east of the area leaving the region under northwest flow
aloft. At the surface, strong CAA will be ongoing behind the cold
front. That, accompanied with mostly cloudy skies will provide for a
return to more seasonable highs in the low to mid 40s. High pressure
will move into the area Thursday night and remain over the area
through the day on Friday. A cold start with lows in the low to mid
20s, coupled with weak mixed will only yield highs in the mid 30s to
lower 40s on Friday.

The forecast become challenging over the weekend as an evolving
storm system gets organized and poised to bring precipitation to the
area. The system in question will involve the merging of a deep
trough over the southwestern CONUS on Saturday and an upper level
shortwave diving south out of the Canadian Rockies into the central
Plains. These two system look to merge over the Plains on Saturday.
Precipitation will move into the area on Saturday morning out ahead
of a cold front. P-type on Saturday is still uncertain at this point
however, model sounding suggest that near surface temperatures will
be warm enough to support rain at this time. However, there are ice
crystals in the snow growth zone so precipitation may fall as snow
if the warm layer near the surface is not as deep as represented
however, snow is not expected to accumulate. Saturday night the cold
front will push through the area with CAA behind it. This should
sufficiently cool the entire column below freezing. The question at
this time is there ice crystals in the snow growth zone. Soundings
suggest that there are and that should provide for a period of snow
Saturday night into Sunday. The phased upper level trough will move
through the area on Sunday with snow coming to an end from west to
east during the day. Highs Sunday will only reach into the upper 20s
to mid 30s. Surface high pressure then quickly moves into the
forecast area Sunday night providing for good radiational cooling.
Lows by Monday morning will be the coldest we have seen since the
beginning of January in the single digits and lower teens. Monday
will be dry and cold as surface high pressure remains on the area
with highs in the teens in the upper teens to mid 20s. Models are
suggesting a shortwave will move through the region on Monday
night/Tuesday but spatial and timing difference among the models
preclude more than slight chance POPs for that timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1116 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the afternoon and
evening as scattered cirrus drifts across the region. Winds will
increase out of the south southwest within the next hour or so, and
should gust between 20 and 25 kts through sunset. Gusts should
briefly drop off between sunset and the arrival of the cold front,
then will veer sharply to the northwest at sustained speeds up to 20
kts with gusts up to 30 kts. Broken MVFR ceilings are expected to
follow behind the front, and could possibly drop below 2 kft after
09z.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KSGF 282015
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
215 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 212 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

A beautiful day is being observed across the region. While south
winds are rather gusty, sunshine has been abundant with
unseasonably warm temperatures. There is a rather stark
temperature gradient across the area, with readings ranging from
the 50s in the eastern Ozarks to the mid 70s for areas near the
MO/KS state line.

We are continuing to monitoring borderline red flag conditions
given strong winds and low relative humidity values. At this time,
JLN has relative humidity right at 25%, however most other
surrounding sites are a bit higher. Given we are at peak heating
and mixing, we should not see relative humidity values go much
lower than current observations. As a result, will keep on with
the SPS for elevated fire danger as the potential for rapid spread
grass fires remains high.

Cold front moves through the region overnight tonight into early
Thursday morning. Cold advection takes hold during the day, which
will be a stark contrast to today`s wonderful temperatures. Some
recovery is expected, but highs in the 40s will be common area
wide.

Heading into Thursday night through Friday night, seasonable and
dry conditions are expected with a gradual increase in clouds
expected late Friday/Friday night in advance of our next storm
system.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 212 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

The region will be in a northwest flow pattern aloft to begin to
the long term, as a ridge will be over the west coast. An upper
level low will be in place across the southwest U.S. The northwest
flow will keep the temperatures seasonable with highs in the 40s
on Saturday. A piece of energy from the upper level low will move
towards the region by Saturday afternoon as another upper level
trough pushes south towards the region in the northwest flow
aloft. This will start to spread moisture back into the area.
Temperatures aloft will be cold enough for snow, however the
surface and low levels will initially be warm enough for all rain
Saturday afternoon. As colder air spreads into the area, rain
will being to mix with and change over to snow Saturday night
into Sunday. The precipitation will taper off by Sunday night as
the upper level trough moves through the region.

A much colder air mass will spread into the region to start the
work week as lows drop into the teens both Sunday and Monday
nights. Highs on Monday will only warm into the 20s. More
seasonable temperatures will then return Tuesday and Wednesday as
highs return to the 40s. Another storm system may then start to
approach the region during the middle to end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Primary
forecast challenge will continue to be gusty southerly winds and
low level wind shear. Gusts will be most common through early
evening with low level wind shear most common during the mid/late
evening hours. A cold front will move through the region overnight
and wind direction will shift to the northwest. High clouds will
move in from the west as the afternoon progresses with mid level
clouds possible during the daylight hours of Thursday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Gagan








000
FXUS63 KSGF 282015
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
215 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 212 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

A beautiful day is being observed across the region. While south
winds are rather gusty, sunshine has been abundant with
unseasonably warm temperatures. There is a rather stark
temperature gradient across the area, with readings ranging from
the 50s in the eastern Ozarks to the mid 70s for areas near the
MO/KS state line.

We are continuing to monitoring borderline red flag conditions
given strong winds and low relative humidity values. At this time,
JLN has relative humidity right at 25%, however most other
surrounding sites are a bit higher. Given we are at peak heating
and mixing, we should not see relative humidity values go much
lower than current observations. As a result, will keep on with
the SPS for elevated fire danger as the potential for rapid spread
grass fires remains high.

Cold front moves through the region overnight tonight into early
Thursday morning. Cold advection takes hold during the day, which
will be a stark contrast to today`s wonderful temperatures. Some
recovery is expected, but highs in the 40s will be common area
wide.

Heading into Thursday night through Friday night, seasonable and
dry conditions are expected with a gradual increase in clouds
expected late Friday/Friday night in advance of our next storm
system.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 212 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

The region will be in a northwest flow pattern aloft to begin to
the long term, as a ridge will be over the west coast. An upper
level low will be in place across the southwest U.S. The northwest
flow will keep the temperatures seasonable with highs in the 40s
on Saturday. A piece of energy from the upper level low will move
towards the region by Saturday afternoon as another upper level
trough pushes south towards the region in the northwest flow
aloft. This will start to spread moisture back into the area.
Temperatures aloft will be cold enough for snow, however the
surface and low levels will initially be warm enough for all rain
Saturday afternoon. As colder air spreads into the area, rain
will being to mix with and change over to snow Saturday night
into Sunday. The precipitation will taper off by Sunday night as
the upper level trough moves through the region.

A much colder air mass will spread into the region to start the
work week as lows drop into the teens both Sunday and Monday
nights. Highs on Monday will only warm into the 20s. More
seasonable temperatures will then return Tuesday and Wednesday as
highs return to the 40s. Another storm system may then start to
approach the region during the middle to end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Primary
forecast challenge will continue to be gusty southerly winds and
low level wind shear. Gusts will be most common through early
evening with low level wind shear most common during the mid/late
evening hours. A cold front will move through the region overnight
and wind direction will shift to the northwest. High clouds will
move in from the west as the afternoon progresses with mid level
clouds possible during the daylight hours of Thursday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 282012
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
212 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 212 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

A beautiful day is being observed across the region. While south
winds are rather gusty, sunshine has been abundant with
unseasonably warm temperatures. There is a rather stark
temperature gradient across the area, with readings ranging from
the 50s in the eastern Ozarks to the mid 70s for areas near the
MO/KS state line.

We are continuing to monitoring borderline red flag conditions
given strong winds and low relative humidity values. At this time,
JLN has relative humidity right at 25%, however most other
surrounding sites are a bit higher. Given we are at peak heating
and mixing, we should not see relative humidity values go much
lower than current observations. As a result, will keep on with
the SPS for elevated fire danger as the potential for rapid spread
grass fires remains high.

Cold front moves through the region overnight tonight into early
Thursday morning. Cold advection takes hold during the day, which
will be a stark contrast to today`s wonderful temperatures. Some
recovery is expected, but highs in the 40s will be common area
wide.

Heading into Thursday night through Friday night, seasonable and
dry conditions are expected with a gradual increase in clouds
expected late Friday/Friday night in advance of our next storm
system.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 212 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

The region will be in a northwest flow pattern aloft to begin to
the long term, as a ridge will be over the west coast. An upper
level low will be in place across the southwest U.S. The northwest
flow will keep the temperatures seasonable with highs in the 40s
on Saturday. A piece of energy from the upper level low will move
towards the region by Saturday afternoon as another upper level
trough pushes south towards the region in the northwest flow
aloft. This will start to spread moisture back into the area.
Temperatures aloft will be cold enough for snow, however the
surface and low levels will initially be warm enough for all rain
Saturday afternoon. As colder air spreads into the area, rain
will being to mix with and change over to snow Saturday night
into Sunday. The precipitation will taper off by Sunday night as
the upper level trough moves through the region.

A much colder air mass will spread into the region to start the
work week as lows drop into the teens both Sunday and Monday
nights. Highs on Monday will only warm into the 20s. More
seasonable temperatures will then return Tuesday and Wednesday as
highs return to the 40s. Another storm system may then start to
approach the region during the middle to end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Primary
forecast challenge will continue to be gusty southerly winds and
low level wind shear. Gusts will be most common through early
evening with low level wind shear most common during the mid/late
evening hours. A cold front will move through the region overnight
and wind direction will shift to the northwest. High clouds will
move in from the west as the afternoon progresses with mid level
clouds possible during the daylight hours of Thursday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 282012
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
212 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 212 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

A beautiful day is being observed across the region. While south
winds are rather gusty, sunshine has been abundant with
unseasonably warm temperatures. There is a rather stark
temperature gradient across the area, with readings ranging from
the 50s in the eastern Ozarks to the mid 70s for areas near the
MO/KS state line.

We are continuing to monitoring borderline red flag conditions
given strong winds and low relative humidity values. At this time,
JLN has relative humidity right at 25%, however most other
surrounding sites are a bit higher. Given we are at peak heating
and mixing, we should not see relative humidity values go much
lower than current observations. As a result, will keep on with
the SPS for elevated fire danger as the potential for rapid spread
grass fires remains high.

Cold front moves through the region overnight tonight into early
Thursday morning. Cold advection takes hold during the day, which
will be a stark contrast to today`s wonderful temperatures. Some
recovery is expected, but highs in the 40s will be common area
wide.

Heading into Thursday night through Friday night, seasonable and
dry conditions are expected with a gradual increase in clouds
expected late Friday/Friday night in advance of our next storm
system.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 212 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

The region will be in a northwest flow pattern aloft to begin to
the long term, as a ridge will be over the west coast. An upper
level low will be in place across the southwest U.S. The northwest
flow will keep the temperatures seasonable with highs in the 40s
on Saturday. A piece of energy from the upper level low will move
towards the region by Saturday afternoon as another upper level
trough pushes south towards the region in the northwest flow
aloft. This will start to spread moisture back into the area.
Temperatures aloft will be cold enough for snow, however the
surface and low levels will initially be warm enough for all rain
Saturday afternoon. As colder air spreads into the area, rain
will being to mix with and change over to snow Saturday night
into Sunday. The precipitation will taper off by Sunday night as
the upper level trough moves through the region.

A much colder air mass will spread into the region to start the
work week as lows drop into the teens both Sunday and Monday
nights. Highs on Monday will only warm into the 20s. More
seasonable temperatures will then return Tuesday and Wednesday as
highs return to the 40s. Another storm system may then start to
approach the region during the middle to end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Primary
forecast challenge will continue to be gusty southerly winds and
low level wind shear. Gusts will be most common through early
evening with low level wind shear most common during the mid/late
evening hours. A cold front will move through the region overnight
and wind direction will shift to the northwest. High clouds will
move in from the west as the afternoon progresses with mid level
clouds possible during the daylight hours of Thursday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Gagan





000
FXUS63 KSGF 282012
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
212 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 212 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

A beautiful day is being observed across the region. While south
winds are rather gusty, sunshine has been abundant with
unseasonably warm temperatures. There is a rather stark
temperature gradient across the area, with readings ranging from
the 50s in the eastern Ozarks to the mid 70s for areas near the
MO/KS state line.

We are continuing to monitoring borderline red flag conditions
given strong winds and low relative humidity values. At this time,
JLN has relative humidity right at 25%, however most other
surrounding sites are a bit higher. Given we are at peak heating
and mixing, we should not see relative humidity values go much
lower than current observations. As a result, will keep on with
the SPS for elevated fire danger as the potential for rapid spread
grass fires remains high.

Cold front moves through the region overnight tonight into early
Thursday morning. Cold advection takes hold during the day, which
will be a stark contrast to today`s wonderful temperatures. Some
recovery is expected, but highs in the 40s will be common area
wide.

Heading into Thursday night through Friday night, seasonable and
dry conditions are expected with a gradual increase in clouds
expected late Friday/Friday night in advance of our next storm
system.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 212 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

The region will be in a northwest flow pattern aloft to begin to
the long term, as a ridge will be over the west coast. An upper
level low will be in place across the southwest U.S. The northwest
flow will keep the temperatures seasonable with highs in the 40s
on Saturday. A piece of energy from the upper level low will move
towards the region by Saturday afternoon as another upper level
trough pushes south towards the region in the northwest flow
aloft. This will start to spread moisture back into the area.
Temperatures aloft will be cold enough for snow, however the
surface and low levels will initially be warm enough for all rain
Saturday afternoon. As colder air spreads into the area, rain
will being to mix with and change over to snow Saturday night
into Sunday. The precipitation will taper off by Sunday night as
the upper level trough moves through the region.

A much colder air mass will spread into the region to start the
work week as lows drop into the teens both Sunday and Monday
nights. Highs on Monday will only warm into the 20s. More
seasonable temperatures will then return Tuesday and Wednesday as
highs return to the 40s. Another storm system may then start to
approach the region during the middle to end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Primary
forecast challenge will continue to be gusty southerly winds and
low level wind shear. Gusts will be most common through early
evening with low level wind shear most common during the mid/late
evening hours. A cold front will move through the region overnight
and wind direction will shift to the northwest. High clouds will
move in from the west as the afternoon progresses with mid level
clouds possible during the daylight hours of Thursday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 281756 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1156 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Quite the range of temperatures early this morning across the
forecast area with low 30s near Vichy and upper 40s over by JLN
and southeast Kansas. Also getting channeled southeast wind
direction at Springfield which has been gusty so far tonight. Air
remains fairly dry in the western CWA with RH values in JLN still
in the 40s. This may become a problem later today with a gusty
south wind and temperatures warming to around 70 for some elevated
fire conditions.

The temperatures and elevated fire conditions today will be the
main short term focus.

In the extended period, the main focus will be on the storm system
to affect the region this weekend and what if any Winter weather
will occur as a result.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

For today, a shortwave currently in the Rockies as viewed on water
vapor imagery was beginning to now shift eastward and will track
east into the northern and central Plains during the day today. As
it does, a surface low pressure system will push from the Dakotas
into southwest Iowa with a trailing frontal system by early
evening into southeast Kansas and central Oklahoma. Out ahead of
the system, gusty south winds are expected today with a tightening
pressure gradient setting up and should also see some higher
gustiness set up with some late morning and afternoon mixing.
Drier air already in place in the western CWA and we are
forecasting highs in the upper 60s to low 70s there this
afternoon. This will cause afternoon humidity levels to dip into
the upper 20s to low 30s, combining with a gusty wind of 30 to 35
mph at times to bring elevated fire weather conditions over
about the western half of the CWA this afternoon. (See fire
weather discussion for more details).

Will see that cold front and shortwave energy track east across
the area tonight. Best lift and moisture will be much further to
the north and east of the area and will keep a dry forecast going
for now.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Temperatures behind the front will certainly be cooler with highs
on Thursday expected in the 40s to around 50 with lows in the mid
to upper 20s on Thursday night. A storm system will push into the
southwest coast and Baja regions on Thursday night. Energy from
this system will break off from the main developing low (which is
expected to close off and remain well to the southwest) and merge
with a southeastward moving shortwave from the northern stream in
Canada on Saturday/Saturday night. Precipitation is expected to
occur with this system over the area from Saturday through Sunday.
The main question will be whether it will be snow and/or rain.
Believe that it will be mostly rain on Saturday given the warmer
surface temperatures expected. On Saturday night, temperature
profiles over northern CWA would support more snow with rain or
snow in the south and rain or snow into Sunday as colder air depth
continues to increase. Any remaining precipitation by Sunday night
would be in the snow form. Again, we will be in the transition
zone of rain/snow and for much of the forecast period with
precipitation will be going with rain/snow at this time.

Significantly cooler air will move in behind the system for Sunday
night into Monday with lows in the teens and highs Monday only in
the 20s to around 30.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Primary
forecast challenge will continue to be gusty southerly winds and
low level wind shear. Gusts will be most common through early
evening with low level wind shear most common during the mid/late
evening hours. A cold front will move through the region overnight
and wind direction will shift to the northwest. High clouds will
move in from the west as the afternoon progresses with mid level
clouds possible during the daylight hours of Thursday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected later today with
temperatures forecast to reach the low 70s over the western
forecast area. Forecast afternoon RH values will be in the upper
20s to low 30s out west with relatively dry or dormant grass
vegetation. Will likely issue an SPS highlighting fire concerns
later today. Upcoming shift will need to monitor for potential of
upgrade to Red Flag Warning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Gagan
FIRE WEATHER...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KLSX 281745
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1145 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 339 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Satellite data at 08z showed the area of low clouds that had been
across west-central IL had moved off to the north, propelled by low
level flow from the SE, leaving behind clear skies across the entire
forecast area.  Temps were in the 20s for most areas save central MO
where readings were in the low 30s.  A surface warm front extended
from southern NE to northeastern OK.  NW flow prevailed aloft with
an upper level RIDGE over the Plains.

The surface warm front is expected to make steady progress today
into central MO by late afternoon.  While moisture levels in the
atmospheric column are expected to rise to above average levels, the
lack of any real deep lift other than from the front will preclude
any pcpn development thru early this evening.  In fact, clouds are
expected to be rather thin for much of the day until late, allowing
plenty of sunshine.

The high levels of sunshine and what should be a stout southerly
surface flow will allow temps to surge today, especially in central
MO where the surface warm front is expected to reach.  MOS temps
have been consistently on the cool side for similar scenarios this
year.  Forecasted values that were around the warmer MAV MOS for IL,
yielding 45-50F for maxes, and went up to a few degrees above the
MAV MOS for MO, yielding low 50s near the MS river to the low 60s in
central MO.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

(Tonight through Friday)

With little precip expected thru the period, focus remains on temps.

Mdls are in very good agreement thru the period with respect to mass
fields and thermal profiles. Still, spread among MOS temps increases
thru the period, tho is less than usual. Have trended twd the warmer
guidance for tonight as clouds shud help keep temps warmer. Trended
twd a compromise thru the remainder of the period as cloud cover and
CAA will oppose one another, increasing uncertainty.

Continued low PoPs for nern/ern portions of the CWA for tonight and
Thurs morning as the clipper pushes thru the area.

(Saturday through Tuesday)

Focus quickly turns to the system approaching the region this
weekend. Mdls are in remarkably good agreement thru the end of the
storm on Mon. Overall, mdls are rather consistent compared to 24 hrs
ago. However, the ECMWF is slightly less amplified and slightly
warmer while the GFS suggests a deeper trof and overall cooler. The
GEM is further nwd with the 850 mb track compared to the other
solns.

Increased PoPs for late Sat thru Sun as mdls continue to suggest
precip thru this time and precip is expected. However, a fair amount
of uncertainty remains regarding p-type thru this storm. Still, it
shud remain largely a RA vs. SN system. With the uncertainty in the
thermal profile, only minor changes were made to p-types for this
system. This storm will remain one to monitor.

Beyond this storm, much colder air filters into the region as the
arctic sfc ridge builds into the area. Have trended slightly cooler.
Any SN pack from the preceding system may drive temps even cooler
than forecast. Will continue with an overall compromise for now.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

VFR flight conditions are expected through this evening with winds
being the main issue. A tight pressure gradient ahead of an
approaching surface low and cold front will result in gusty
southeast winds this afternoon, which should diminish around or
just after sunset. Decoupling of the lower atmosphere after sunset
and the development of a stout south-southwesterly LLJ will
result in LLWS conditions for much of the evening and into the
overnight hours until the cold fropa. The cold front will move
through the TAF sites from northwest to southeast in the 08-12z
time frame accompanied by gusty northwest winds and MVFR flight
conditions.


Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions will persist this afternoon and evening with
gusty southeast winds into the early evening. The surface wind
will diminish during the evening and this will result in the onset
of LLWS as a stout south-southwest LLJ evolves. A strong cold
front will then move through the terminal in the 11-12z time frame
accompanied by gusty northwest winds and MVFR flight conditions.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 281745
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1145 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 339 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Satellite data at 08z showed the area of low clouds that had been
across west-central IL had moved off to the north, propelled by low
level flow from the SE, leaving behind clear skies across the entire
forecast area.  Temps were in the 20s for most areas save central MO
where readings were in the low 30s.  A surface warm front extended
from southern NE to northeastern OK.  NW flow prevailed aloft with
an upper level RIDGE over the Plains.

The surface warm front is expected to make steady progress today
into central MO by late afternoon.  While moisture levels in the
atmospheric column are expected to rise to above average levels, the
lack of any real deep lift other than from the front will preclude
any pcpn development thru early this evening.  In fact, clouds are
expected to be rather thin for much of the day until late, allowing
plenty of sunshine.

The high levels of sunshine and what should be a stout southerly
surface flow will allow temps to surge today, especially in central
MO where the surface warm front is expected to reach.  MOS temps
have been consistently on the cool side for similar scenarios this
year.  Forecasted values that were around the warmer MAV MOS for IL,
yielding 45-50F for maxes, and went up to a few degrees above the
MAV MOS for MO, yielding low 50s near the MS river to the low 60s in
central MO.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

(Tonight through Friday)

With little precip expected thru the period, focus remains on temps.

Mdls are in very good agreement thru the period with respect to mass
fields and thermal profiles. Still, spread among MOS temps increases
thru the period, tho is less than usual. Have trended twd the warmer
guidance for tonight as clouds shud help keep temps warmer. Trended
twd a compromise thru the remainder of the period as cloud cover and
CAA will oppose one another, increasing uncertainty.

Continued low PoPs for nern/ern portions of the CWA for tonight and
Thurs morning as the clipper pushes thru the area.

(Saturday through Tuesday)

Focus quickly turns to the system approaching the region this
weekend. Mdls are in remarkably good agreement thru the end of the
storm on Mon. Overall, mdls are rather consistent compared to 24 hrs
ago. However, the ECMWF is slightly less amplified and slightly
warmer while the GFS suggests a deeper trof and overall cooler. The
GEM is further nwd with the 850 mb track compared to the other
solns.

Increased PoPs for late Sat thru Sun as mdls continue to suggest
precip thru this time and precip is expected. However, a fair amount
of uncertainty remains regarding p-type thru this storm. Still, it
shud remain largely a RA vs. SN system. With the uncertainty in the
thermal profile, only minor changes were made to p-types for this
system. This storm will remain one to monitor.

Beyond this storm, much colder air filters into the region as the
arctic sfc ridge builds into the area. Have trended slightly cooler.
Any SN pack from the preceding system may drive temps even cooler
than forecast. Will continue with an overall compromise for now.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

VFR flight conditions are expected through this evening with winds
being the main issue. A tight pressure gradient ahead of an
approaching surface low and cold front will result in gusty
southeast winds this afternoon, which should diminish around or
just after sunset. Decoupling of the lower atmosphere after sunset
and the development of a stout south-southwesterly LLJ will
result in LLWS conditions for much of the evening and into the
overnight hours until the cold fropa. The cold front will move
through the TAF sites from northwest to southeast in the 08-12z
time frame accompanied by gusty northwest winds and MVFR flight
conditions.


Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions will persist this afternoon and evening with
gusty southeast winds into the early evening. The surface wind
will diminish during the evening and this will result in the onset
of LLWS as a stout south-southwest LLJ evolves. A strong cold
front will then move through the terminal in the 11-12z time frame
accompanied by gusty northwest winds and MVFR flight conditions.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 281716
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1116 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Today will signal the last day to the extended stretch of winter
warmth that we have experienced. Beyond today, winter-like
temperatures and conditions will return. The main concern during
this period will be the potential for accumulating snow over the
weekend.

A ridge of high pressure is shifting east into the Ohio Valley early
this morning. Back to the west an upper level shortwave is moving
through the Rockies allowing a cold front to strengthen across the
northern and central Plains. This will cause the pressure gradient
to tighten across the area providing for strong southerly winds and
good mixing today. 850mb temperatures will range between 13C-16C
providing for afternoon highs in the upper 50s to the lower 70s
across the southwestern CWA. Tonight the aforementioned upper level
shortwave moves through the Plains and into the local area forcing a
cold front through the area. By Thursday, the upper level trough
will push east of the area leaving the region under northwest flow
aloft. At the surface, strong CAA will be ongoing behind the cold
front. That, accompanied with mostly cloudy skies will provide for a
return to more seasonable highs in the low to mid 40s. High pressure
will move into the area Thursday night and remain over the area
through the day on Friday. A cold start with lows in the low to mid
20s, coupled with weak mixed will only yield highs in the mid 30s to
lower 40s on Friday.

The forecast become challenging over the weekend as an evolving
storm system gets organized and poised to bring precipitation to the
area. The system in question will involve the merging of a deep
trough over the southwestern CONUS on Saturday and an upper level
shortwave diving south out of the Canadian Rockies into the central
Plains. These two system look to merge over the Plains on Saturday.
Precipitation will move into the area on Saturday morning out ahead
of a cold front. P-type on Saturday is still uncertain at this point
however, model sounding suggest that near surface temperatures will
be warm enough to support rain at this time. However, there are ice
crystals in the snow growth zone so precipitation may fall as snow
if the warm layer near the surface is not as deep as represented
however, snow is not expected to accumulate. Saturday night the cold
front will push through the area with CAA behind it. This should
sufficiently cool the entire column below freezing. The question at
this time is there ice crystals in the snow growth zone. Soundings
suggest that there are and that should provide for a period of snow
Saturday night into Sunday. The phased upper level trough will move
through the area on Sunday with snow coming to an end from west to
east during the day. Highs Sunday will only reach into the upper 20s
to mid 30s. Surface high pressure then quickly moves into the
forecast area Sunday night providing for good radiational cooling.
Lows by Monday morning will be the coldest we have seen since the
beginning of January in the single digits and lower teens. Monday
will be dry and cold as surface high pressure remains on the area
with highs in the teens in the upper teens to mid 20s. Models are
suggesting a shortwave will move through the region on Monday
night/Tuesday but spatial and timing difference among the models
preclude more than slight chance POPs for that timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1116 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the afternoon and
evening as scattered cirrus drifts across the region. Winds will
increase out of the south southwest within the next hour or so, and
should gust between 20 and 25 kts through sunset. Gusts should
briefly drop off between sunset and the arrival of the cold front,
then will veer sharply to the northwest at sustained speeds up to 20
kts with gusts up to 30 kts. Broken MVFR ceilings are expected to
follow behind the front, and could possibly drop below 2 kft after
09z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 281716
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1116 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Today will signal the last day to the extended stretch of winter
warmth that we have experienced. Beyond today, winter-like
temperatures and conditions will return. The main concern during
this period will be the potential for accumulating snow over the
weekend.

A ridge of high pressure is shifting east into the Ohio Valley early
this morning. Back to the west an upper level shortwave is moving
through the Rockies allowing a cold front to strengthen across the
northern and central Plains. This will cause the pressure gradient
to tighten across the area providing for strong southerly winds and
good mixing today. 850mb temperatures will range between 13C-16C
providing for afternoon highs in the upper 50s to the lower 70s
across the southwestern CWA. Tonight the aforementioned upper level
shortwave moves through the Plains and into the local area forcing a
cold front through the area. By Thursday, the upper level trough
will push east of the area leaving the region under northwest flow
aloft. At the surface, strong CAA will be ongoing behind the cold
front. That, accompanied with mostly cloudy skies will provide for a
return to more seasonable highs in the low to mid 40s. High pressure
will move into the area Thursday night and remain over the area
through the day on Friday. A cold start with lows in the low to mid
20s, coupled with weak mixed will only yield highs in the mid 30s to
lower 40s on Friday.

The forecast become challenging over the weekend as an evolving
storm system gets organized and poised to bring precipitation to the
area. The system in question will involve the merging of a deep
trough over the southwestern CONUS on Saturday and an upper level
shortwave diving south out of the Canadian Rockies into the central
Plains. These two system look to merge over the Plains on Saturday.
Precipitation will move into the area on Saturday morning out ahead
of a cold front. P-type on Saturday is still uncertain at this point
however, model sounding suggest that near surface temperatures will
be warm enough to support rain at this time. However, there are ice
crystals in the snow growth zone so precipitation may fall as snow
if the warm layer near the surface is not as deep as represented
however, snow is not expected to accumulate. Saturday night the cold
front will push through the area with CAA behind it. This should
sufficiently cool the entire column below freezing. The question at
this time is there ice crystals in the snow growth zone. Soundings
suggest that there are and that should provide for a period of snow
Saturday night into Sunday. The phased upper level trough will move
through the area on Sunday with snow coming to an end from west to
east during the day. Highs Sunday will only reach into the upper 20s
to mid 30s. Surface high pressure then quickly moves into the
forecast area Sunday night providing for good radiational cooling.
Lows by Monday morning will be the coldest we have seen since the
beginning of January in the single digits and lower teens. Monday
will be dry and cold as surface high pressure remains on the area
with highs in the teens in the upper teens to mid 20s. Models are
suggesting a shortwave will move through the region on Monday
night/Tuesday but spatial and timing difference among the models
preclude more than slight chance POPs for that timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1116 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the afternoon and
evening as scattered cirrus drifts across the region. Winds will
increase out of the south southwest within the next hour or so, and
should gust between 20 and 25 kts through sunset. Gusts should
briefly drop off between sunset and the arrival of the cold front,
then will veer sharply to the northwest at sustained speeds up to 20
kts with gusts up to 30 kts. Broken MVFR ceilings are expected to
follow behind the front, and could possibly drop below 2 kft after
09z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KLSX 281205
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
605 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 339 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Satellite data at 08z showed the area of low clouds that had been
across west-central IL had moved off to the north, propelled by low
level flow from the SE, leaving behind clear skies across the entire
forecast area.  Temps were in the 20s for most areas save central MO
where readings were in the low 30s.  A surface warm front extended
from southern NE to northeastern OK.  NW flow prevailed aloft with
an upper level RIDGE over the Plains.

The surface warm front is expected to make steady progress today
into central MO by late afternoon.  While moisture levels in the
atmospheric column are expected to rise to above average levels, the
lack of any real deep lift other than from the front will preclude
any pcpn development thru early this evening.  In fact, clouds are
expected to be rather thin for much of the day until late, allowing
plenty of sunshine.

The high levels of sunshine and what should be a stout southerly
surface flow will allow temps to surge today, especially in central
MO where the surface warm front is expected to reach.  MOS temps
have been consistently on the cool side for similar scenarios this
year.  Forecasted values that were around the warmer MAV MOS for IL,
yielding 45-50F for maxes, and went up to a few degrees above the
MAV MOS for MO, yielding low 50s near the MS river to the low 60s in
central MO.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

(Tonight through Friday)

With little precip expected thru the period, focus remains on temps.

Mdls are in very good agreement thru the period with respect to mass
fields and thermal profiles. Still, spread among MOS temps increases
thru the period, tho is less than usual. Have trended twd the warmer
guidance for tonight as clouds shud help keep temps warmer. Trended
twd a compromise thru the remainder of the period as cloud cover and
CAA will oppose one another, increasing uncertainty.

Continued low PoPs for nern/ern portions of the CWA for tonight and
Thurs morning as the clipper pushes thru the area.

(Saturday through Tuesday)

Focus quickly turns to the system approaching the region this
weekend. Mdls are in remarkably good agreement thru the end of the
storm on Mon. Overall, mdls are rather consistent compared to 24 hrs
ago. However, the ECMWF is slightly less amplified and slightly
warmer while the GFS suggests a deeper trof and overall cooler. The
GEM is further nwd with the 850 mb track compared to the other
solns.

Increased PoPs for late Sat thru Sun as mdls continue to suggest
precip thru this time and precip is expected. However, a fair amount
of uncertainty remains regarding p-type thru this storm. Still, it
shud remain largely a RA vs. SN system. With the uncertainty in the
thermal profile, only minor changes were made to p-types for this
system. This storm will remain one to monitor.

Beyond this storm, much colder air filters into the region as the
arctic sfc ridge builds into the area. Have trended slightly cooler.
Any SN pack from the preceding system may drive temps even cooler
than forecast. Will continue with an overall compromise for now.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 605 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

VFR conditions and dry wx will prevail today with S-SE surface
winds strengthening and becoming gusty. A 50kt low level jet will
develop this evening and result in LLWS conditions at all TAF
sites. Increasing clouds and lowering CIGs will be featured for
late tonight. Surface winds will veer SW and become gusty again,
ending the LLWS, with a cold front for close to the end of the
valid period, veering winds from the NW and increasing gusts to
25-30kts. MVFR CIGs are also expected to overspread the area
behind the cold front. No pcpn is anticipated but could see some
spotty light rain mainly E of the MS river.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions until late tonight. S-SE
surface winds will become gusty today, with LLWS developing this
evening in conjunction with a 50kt low level jet. LLWS conditions
are expected to come to an end with what should be veering and
gusty SW winds late tonight with further strengthening around 12z
with a cold front moving thru. MVFR CIGs will then also move in
with the cold front.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 281205
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
605 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 339 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Satellite data at 08z showed the area of low clouds that had been
across west-central IL had moved off to the north, propelled by low
level flow from the SE, leaving behind clear skies across the entire
forecast area.  Temps were in the 20s for most areas save central MO
where readings were in the low 30s.  A surface warm front extended
from southern NE to northeastern OK.  NW flow prevailed aloft with
an upper level RIDGE over the Plains.

The surface warm front is expected to make steady progress today
into central MO by late afternoon.  While moisture levels in the
atmospheric column are expected to rise to above average levels, the
lack of any real deep lift other than from the front will preclude
any pcpn development thru early this evening.  In fact, clouds are
expected to be rather thin for much of the day until late, allowing
plenty of sunshine.

The high levels of sunshine and what should be a stout southerly
surface flow will allow temps to surge today, especially in central
MO where the surface warm front is expected to reach.  MOS temps
have been consistently on the cool side for similar scenarios this
year.  Forecasted values that were around the warmer MAV MOS for IL,
yielding 45-50F for maxes, and went up to a few degrees above the
MAV MOS for MO, yielding low 50s near the MS river to the low 60s in
central MO.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

(Tonight through Friday)

With little precip expected thru the period, focus remains on temps.

Mdls are in very good agreement thru the period with respect to mass
fields and thermal profiles. Still, spread among MOS temps increases
thru the period, tho is less than usual. Have trended twd the warmer
guidance for tonight as clouds shud help keep temps warmer. Trended
twd a compromise thru the remainder of the period as cloud cover and
CAA will oppose one another, increasing uncertainty.

Continued low PoPs for nern/ern portions of the CWA for tonight and
Thurs morning as the clipper pushes thru the area.

(Saturday through Tuesday)

Focus quickly turns to the system approaching the region this
weekend. Mdls are in remarkably good agreement thru the end of the
storm on Mon. Overall, mdls are rather consistent compared to 24 hrs
ago. However, the ECMWF is slightly less amplified and slightly
warmer while the GFS suggests a deeper trof and overall cooler. The
GEM is further nwd with the 850 mb track compared to the other
solns.

Increased PoPs for late Sat thru Sun as mdls continue to suggest
precip thru this time and precip is expected. However, a fair amount
of uncertainty remains regarding p-type thru this storm. Still, it
shud remain largely a RA vs. SN system. With the uncertainty in the
thermal profile, only minor changes were made to p-types for this
system. This storm will remain one to monitor.

Beyond this storm, much colder air filters into the region as the
arctic sfc ridge builds into the area. Have trended slightly cooler.
Any SN pack from the preceding system may drive temps even cooler
than forecast. Will continue with an overall compromise for now.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 605 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

VFR conditions and dry wx will prevail today with S-SE surface
winds strengthening and becoming gusty. A 50kt low level jet will
develop this evening and result in LLWS conditions at all TAF
sites. Increasing clouds and lowering CIGs will be featured for
late tonight. Surface winds will veer SW and become gusty again,
ending the LLWS, with a cold front for close to the end of the
valid period, veering winds from the NW and increasing gusts to
25-30kts. MVFR CIGs are also expected to overspread the area
behind the cold front. No pcpn is anticipated but could see some
spotty light rain mainly E of the MS river.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions until late tonight. S-SE
surface winds will become gusty today, with LLWS developing this
evening in conjunction with a 50kt low level jet. LLWS conditions
are expected to come to an end with what should be veering and
gusty SW winds late tonight with further strengthening around 12z
with a cold front moving thru. MVFR CIGs will then also move in
with the cold front.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KEAX 281130
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
530 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Today will signal the last day to the extended stretch of winter
warmth that we have experienced. Beyond today, winter-like
temperatures and conditions will return. The main concern during
this period will be the potential for accumulating snow over the
weekend.

A ridge of high pressure is shifting east into the Ohio Valley early
this morning. Back to the west an upper level shortwave is moving
through the Rockies allowing a cold front to strengthen across the
northern and central Plains. This will cause the pressure gradient
to tighten across the area providing for strong southerly winds and
good mixing today. 850mb temperatures will range between 13C-16C
providing for afternoon highs in the upper 50s to the lower 70s
across the southwestern CWA. Tonight the aforementioned upper level
shortwave moves through the Plains and into the local area forcing a
cold front through the area. By Thursday, the upper level trough
will push east of the area leaving the region under northwest flow
aloft. At the surface, strong CAA will be ongoing behind the cold
front. That, accompanied with mostly cloudy skies will provide for a
return to more seasonable highs in the low to mid 40s. High pressure
will move into the area Thursday night and remain over the area
through the day on Friday. A cold start with lows in the low to mid
20s, coupled with weak mixed will only yield highs in the mid 30s to
lower 40s on Friday.

The forecast become challenging over the weekend as an evolving
storm system gets organized and poised to bring precipitation to the
area. The system in question will involve the merging of a deep
trough over the southwestern CONUS on Saturday and an upper level
shortwave diving south out of the Canadian Rockies into the central
Plains. These two system look to merge over the Plains on Saturday.
Precipitation will move into the area on Saturday morning out ahead
of a cold front. P-type on Saturday is still uncertain at this point
however, model sounding suggest that near surface temperatures will
be warm enough to support rain at this time. However, there are ice
crystals in the snow growth zone so precipitation may fall as snow
if the warm layer near the surface is not as deep as represented
however, snow is not expected to accumulate. Saturday night the cold
front will push through the area with CAA behind it. This should
sufficiently cool the entire column below freezing. The question at
this time is there ice crystals in the snow growth zone. Soundings
suggest that there are and that should provide for a period of snow
Saturday night into Sunday. The phased upper level trough will move
through the area on Sunday with snow coming to an end from west to
east during the day. Highs Sunday will only reach into the upper 20s
to mid 30s. Surface high pressure then quickly moves into the
forecast area Sunday night providing for good radiational cooling.
Lows by Monday morning will be the coldest we have seen since the
beginning of January in the single digits and lower teens. Monday
will be dry and cold as surface high pressure remains on the area
with highs in the teens in the upper teens to mid 20s. Models are
suggesting a shortwave will move through the region on Monday
night/Tuesday but spatial and timing difference among the models
preclude more than slight chance POPs for that timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 530 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

The main concern for aviators this TAF period will be the winds as
VFR conds will prevail. Winds, this morning, are out of the SSE
around 10kts however by late morning they will veer to the south and
increase to 15-20kts with gusts up to 30kts through this evening. A
cold front will pass thru the terminals btn 04Z-06Z veering winds to
the NW. Winds, tonight, will remain strong and gusty out of the NW
behind the front btn 15-20kts with gusts btn 25-35kts. Otrw...expect
mainly few-sct high cirrus clouds thru tonight with sct-bkn clouds
around 5kft moving into the terminals behind the cold front.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 281130
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
530 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Today will signal the last day to the extended stretch of winter
warmth that we have experienced. Beyond today, winter-like
temperatures and conditions will return. The main concern during
this period will be the potential for accumulating snow over the
weekend.

A ridge of high pressure is shifting east into the Ohio Valley early
this morning. Back to the west an upper level shortwave is moving
through the Rockies allowing a cold front to strengthen across the
northern and central Plains. This will cause the pressure gradient
to tighten across the area providing for strong southerly winds and
good mixing today. 850mb temperatures will range between 13C-16C
providing for afternoon highs in the upper 50s to the lower 70s
across the southwestern CWA. Tonight the aforementioned upper level
shortwave moves through the Plains and into the local area forcing a
cold front through the area. By Thursday, the upper level trough
will push east of the area leaving the region under northwest flow
aloft. At the surface, strong CAA will be ongoing behind the cold
front. That, accompanied with mostly cloudy skies will provide for a
return to more seasonable highs in the low to mid 40s. High pressure
will move into the area Thursday night and remain over the area
through the day on Friday. A cold start with lows in the low to mid
20s, coupled with weak mixed will only yield highs in the mid 30s to
lower 40s on Friday.

The forecast become challenging over the weekend as an evolving
storm system gets organized and poised to bring precipitation to the
area. The system in question will involve the merging of a deep
trough over the southwestern CONUS on Saturday and an upper level
shortwave diving south out of the Canadian Rockies into the central
Plains. These two system look to merge over the Plains on Saturday.
Precipitation will move into the area on Saturday morning out ahead
of a cold front. P-type on Saturday is still uncertain at this point
however, model sounding suggest that near surface temperatures will
be warm enough to support rain at this time. However, there are ice
crystals in the snow growth zone so precipitation may fall as snow
if the warm layer near the surface is not as deep as represented
however, snow is not expected to accumulate. Saturday night the cold
front will push through the area with CAA behind it. This should
sufficiently cool the entire column below freezing. The question at
this time is there ice crystals in the snow growth zone. Soundings
suggest that there are and that should provide for a period of snow
Saturday night into Sunday. The phased upper level trough will move
through the area on Sunday with snow coming to an end from west to
east during the day. Highs Sunday will only reach into the upper 20s
to mid 30s. Surface high pressure then quickly moves into the
forecast area Sunday night providing for good radiational cooling.
Lows by Monday morning will be the coldest we have seen since the
beginning of January in the single digits and lower teens. Monday
will be dry and cold as surface high pressure remains on the area
with highs in the teens in the upper teens to mid 20s. Models are
suggesting a shortwave will move through the region on Monday
night/Tuesday but spatial and timing difference among the models
preclude more than slight chance POPs for that timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 530 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

The main concern for aviators this TAF period will be the winds as
VFR conds will prevail. Winds, this morning, are out of the SSE
around 10kts however by late morning they will veer to the south and
increase to 15-20kts with gusts up to 30kts through this evening. A
cold front will pass thru the terminals btn 04Z-06Z veering winds to
the NW. Winds, tonight, will remain strong and gusty out of the NW
behind the front btn 15-20kts with gusts btn 25-35kts. Otrw...expect
mainly few-sct high cirrus clouds thru tonight with sct-bkn clouds
around 5kft moving into the terminals behind the cold front.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 281130
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
530 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Today will signal the last day to the extended stretch of winter
warmth that we have experienced. Beyond today, winter-like
temperatures and conditions will return. The main concern during
this period will be the potential for accumulating snow over the
weekend.

A ridge of high pressure is shifting east into the Ohio Valley early
this morning. Back to the west an upper level shortwave is moving
through the Rockies allowing a cold front to strengthen across the
northern and central Plains. This will cause the pressure gradient
to tighten across the area providing for strong southerly winds and
good mixing today. 850mb temperatures will range between 13C-16C
providing for afternoon highs in the upper 50s to the lower 70s
across the southwestern CWA. Tonight the aforementioned upper level
shortwave moves through the Plains and into the local area forcing a
cold front through the area. By Thursday, the upper level trough
will push east of the area leaving the region under northwest flow
aloft. At the surface, strong CAA will be ongoing behind the cold
front. That, accompanied with mostly cloudy skies will provide for a
return to more seasonable highs in the low to mid 40s. High pressure
will move into the area Thursday night and remain over the area
through the day on Friday. A cold start with lows in the low to mid
20s, coupled with weak mixed will only yield highs in the mid 30s to
lower 40s on Friday.

The forecast become challenging over the weekend as an evolving
storm system gets organized and poised to bring precipitation to the
area. The system in question will involve the merging of a deep
trough over the southwestern CONUS on Saturday and an upper level
shortwave diving south out of the Canadian Rockies into the central
Plains. These two system look to merge over the Plains on Saturday.
Precipitation will move into the area on Saturday morning out ahead
of a cold front. P-type on Saturday is still uncertain at this point
however, model sounding suggest that near surface temperatures will
be warm enough to support rain at this time. However, there are ice
crystals in the snow growth zone so precipitation may fall as snow
if the warm layer near the surface is not as deep as represented
however, snow is not expected to accumulate. Saturday night the cold
front will push through the area with CAA behind it. This should
sufficiently cool the entire column below freezing. The question at
this time is there ice crystals in the snow growth zone. Soundings
suggest that there are and that should provide for a period of snow
Saturday night into Sunday. The phased upper level trough will move
through the area on Sunday with snow coming to an end from west to
east during the day. Highs Sunday will only reach into the upper 20s
to mid 30s. Surface high pressure then quickly moves into the
forecast area Sunday night providing for good radiational cooling.
Lows by Monday morning will be the coldest we have seen since the
beginning of January in the single digits and lower teens. Monday
will be dry and cold as surface high pressure remains on the area
with highs in the teens in the upper teens to mid 20s. Models are
suggesting a shortwave will move through the region on Monday
night/Tuesday but spatial and timing difference among the models
preclude more than slight chance POPs for that timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 530 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

The main concern for aviators this TAF period will be the winds as
VFR conds will prevail. Winds, this morning, are out of the SSE
around 10kts however by late morning they will veer to the south and
increase to 15-20kts with gusts up to 30kts through this evening. A
cold front will pass thru the terminals btn 04Z-06Z veering winds to
the NW. Winds, tonight, will remain strong and gusty out of the NW
behind the front btn 15-20kts with gusts btn 25-35kts. Otrw...expect
mainly few-sct high cirrus clouds thru tonight with sct-bkn clouds
around 5kft moving into the terminals behind the cold front.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 281130
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
530 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Today will signal the last day to the extended stretch of winter
warmth that we have experienced. Beyond today, winter-like
temperatures and conditions will return. The main concern during
this period will be the potential for accumulating snow over the
weekend.

A ridge of high pressure is shifting east into the Ohio Valley early
this morning. Back to the west an upper level shortwave is moving
through the Rockies allowing a cold front to strengthen across the
northern and central Plains. This will cause the pressure gradient
to tighten across the area providing for strong southerly winds and
good mixing today. 850mb temperatures will range between 13C-16C
providing for afternoon highs in the upper 50s to the lower 70s
across the southwestern CWA. Tonight the aforementioned upper level
shortwave moves through the Plains and into the local area forcing a
cold front through the area. By Thursday, the upper level trough
will push east of the area leaving the region under northwest flow
aloft. At the surface, strong CAA will be ongoing behind the cold
front. That, accompanied with mostly cloudy skies will provide for a
return to more seasonable highs in the low to mid 40s. High pressure
will move into the area Thursday night and remain over the area
through the day on Friday. A cold start with lows in the low to mid
20s, coupled with weak mixed will only yield highs in the mid 30s to
lower 40s on Friday.

The forecast become challenging over the weekend as an evolving
storm system gets organized and poised to bring precipitation to the
area. The system in question will involve the merging of a deep
trough over the southwestern CONUS on Saturday and an upper level
shortwave diving south out of the Canadian Rockies into the central
Plains. These two system look to merge over the Plains on Saturday.
Precipitation will move into the area on Saturday morning out ahead
of a cold front. P-type on Saturday is still uncertain at this point
however, model sounding suggest that near surface temperatures will
be warm enough to support rain at this time. However, there are ice
crystals in the snow growth zone so precipitation may fall as snow
if the warm layer near the surface is not as deep as represented
however, snow is not expected to accumulate. Saturday night the cold
front will push through the area with CAA behind it. This should
sufficiently cool the entire column below freezing. The question at
this time is there ice crystals in the snow growth zone. Soundings
suggest that there are and that should provide for a period of snow
Saturday night into Sunday. The phased upper level trough will move
through the area on Sunday with snow coming to an end from west to
east during the day. Highs Sunday will only reach into the upper 20s
to mid 30s. Surface high pressure then quickly moves into the
forecast area Sunday night providing for good radiational cooling.
Lows by Monday morning will be the coldest we have seen since the
beginning of January in the single digits and lower teens. Monday
will be dry and cold as surface high pressure remains on the area
with highs in the teens in the upper teens to mid 20s. Models are
suggesting a shortwave will move through the region on Monday
night/Tuesday but spatial and timing difference among the models
preclude more than slight chance POPs for that timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 530 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

The main concern for aviators this TAF period will be the winds as
VFR conds will prevail. Winds, this morning, are out of the SSE
around 10kts however by late morning they will veer to the south and
increase to 15-20kts with gusts up to 30kts through this evening. A
cold front will pass thru the terminals btn 04Z-06Z veering winds to
the NW. Winds, tonight, will remain strong and gusty out of the NW
behind the front btn 15-20kts with gusts btn 25-35kts. Otrw...expect
mainly few-sct high cirrus clouds thru tonight with sct-bkn clouds
around 5kft moving into the terminals behind the cold front.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KSGF 281125
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
525 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Quite the range of temperatures early this morning across the
forecast area with low 30s near Vichy and upper 40s over by JLN
and southeast Kansas. Also getting channeled southeast wind
direction at Springfield which has been gusty so far tonight. Air
remains fairly dry in the western CWA with RH values in JLN still
in the 40s. This may become a problem later today with a gusty
south wind and temperatures warming to around 70 for some elevated
fire conditions.

The temperatures and elevated fire conditions today will be the
main short term focus.

In the extended period, the main focus will be on the storm system
to affect the region this weekend and what if any Winter weather
will occur as a result.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

For today, a shortwave currently in the Rockies as viewed on water
vapor imagery was beginning to now shift eastward and will track
east into the northern and central Plains during the day today. As
it does, a surface low pressure system will push from the Dakotas
into southwest Iowa with a trailing frontal system by early
evening into southeast Kansas and central Oklahoma. Out ahead of
the system, gusty south winds are expected today with a tightening
pressure gradient setting up and should also see some higher
gustiness set up with some late morning and afternoon mixing.
Drier air already in place in the western CWA and we are
forecasting highs in the upper 60s to low 70s there this
afternoon. This will cause afternoon humidity levels to dip into
the upper 20s to low 30s, combining with a gusty wind of 30 to 35
mph at times to bring elevated fire weather conditions over
about the western half of the CWA this afternoon. (See fire
weather discussion for more details).

Will see that cold front and shortwave energy track east across
the aera tonight. Best lift and moisture will be much further to
the north and east of the area and will keep a dry forecast going
for now.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Temperatures behind the front will certainly be cooler with highs
on Thursday expected in the 40s to around 50 with lows in the mid
to upper 20s on Thursday night. A storm system will push into the
southwest coast and Baja regions on Thursday night. Energy from
this system will break off from the main developing low (which is
expected to close off and remain well to the southwest) and merge
with a southeastward moving shortwave from the northern stream in
Canada on Saturday/Saturday night. Precipitation is expected to
occur with this system over the area from Saturday through Sunday.
The main question will be whether it will be snow and/or rain.
Believe that it will be mostly rain on Saturday given the warmer
surface temperatures expected. On Saturday night, temperature
profiles over northern CWA would support more snow with rain or
snow in the south and rain or snow into Sunday as colder air depth
continues to increase. Any remaining precipitation by Sunday night
would be in the snow form. Again, we will be in the transition
zone of rain/snow and for much of the forecast period with
precipitation will be going with rain/snow at this time.

Significantly cooler air will move in behind the system for Sunday
night into Monday with lows in the teens and highs Monday only in
the 20s to around 30.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. However, pilots will
need to anticipate low level wind shear.

35 to 40 knots at around 2,000 feet above the surface is expected,
and will create low level wind shear.

Otherwise surface winds from the south will be gusty today. No low
ceilings or obstructions to visibility are forecasted at this
time. The warm and windy weather will occur in response to a ridge
of high pressure moving over the nation`s midsection today.

Safe Travels.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected later today with
temperatures forecast to reach the low 70s over the western
forecast area. Forecast afternoon RH values will be in the upper
20s to low 30s out west with relatively dry or dormant grass
vegetation. Will likely issue an SPS highlighting fire concerns
later today. Upcoming shift will need to monitor for potential of
upgrade to Red Flag Warning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Cramer
FIRE WEATHER...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 281125
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
525 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Quite the range of temperatures early this morning across the
forecast area with low 30s near Vichy and upper 40s over by JLN
and southeast Kansas. Also getting channeled southeast wind
direction at Springfield which has been gusty so far tonight. Air
remains fairly dry in the western CWA with RH values in JLN still
in the 40s. This may become a problem later today with a gusty
south wind and temperatures warming to around 70 for some elevated
fire conditions.

The temperatures and elevated fire conditions today will be the
main short term focus.

In the extended period, the main focus will be on the storm system
to affect the region this weekend and what if any Winter weather
will occur as a result.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

For today, a shortwave currently in the Rockies as viewed on water
vapor imagery was beginning to now shift eastward and will track
east into the northern and central Plains during the day today. As
it does, a surface low pressure system will push from the Dakotas
into southwest Iowa with a trailing frontal system by early
evening into southeast Kansas and central Oklahoma. Out ahead of
the system, gusty south winds are expected today with a tightening
pressure gradient setting up and should also see some higher
gustiness set up with some late morning and afternoon mixing.
Drier air already in place in the western CWA and we are
forecasting highs in the upper 60s to low 70s there this
afternoon. This will cause afternoon humidity levels to dip into
the upper 20s to low 30s, combining with a gusty wind of 30 to 35
mph at times to bring elevated fire weather conditions over
about the western half of the CWA this afternoon. (See fire
weather discussion for more details).

Will see that cold front and shortwave energy track east across
the aera tonight. Best lift and moisture will be much further to
the north and east of the area and will keep a dry forecast going
for now.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Temperatures behind the front will certainly be cooler with highs
on Thursday expected in the 40s to around 50 with lows in the mid
to upper 20s on Thursday night. A storm system will push into the
southwest coast and Baja regions on Thursday night. Energy from
this system will break off from the main developing low (which is
expected to close off and remain well to the southwest) and merge
with a southeastward moving shortwave from the northern stream in
Canada on Saturday/Saturday night. Precipitation is expected to
occur with this system over the area from Saturday through Sunday.
The main question will be whether it will be snow and/or rain.
Believe that it will be mostly rain on Saturday given the warmer
surface temperatures expected. On Saturday night, temperature
profiles over northern CWA would support more snow with rain or
snow in the south and rain or snow into Sunday as colder air depth
continues to increase. Any remaining precipitation by Sunday night
would be in the snow form. Again, we will be in the transition
zone of rain/snow and for much of the forecast period with
precipitation will be going with rain/snow at this time.

Significantly cooler air will move in behind the system for Sunday
night into Monday with lows in the teens and highs Monday only in
the 20s to around 30.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. However, pilots will
need to anticipate low level wind shear.

35 to 40 knots at around 2,000 feet above the surface is expected,
and will create low level wind shear.

Otherwise surface winds from the south will be gusty today. No low
ceilings or obstructions to visibility are forecasted at this
time. The warm and windy weather will occur in response to a ridge
of high pressure moving over the nation`s midsection today.

Safe Travels.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected later today with
temperatures forecast to reach the low 70s over the western
forecast area. Forecast afternoon RH values will be in the upper
20s to low 30s out west with relatively dry or dormant grass
vegetation. Will likely issue an SPS highlighting fire concerns
later today. Upcoming shift will need to monitor for potential of
upgrade to Red Flag Warning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Cramer
FIRE WEATHER...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KEAX 280941
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
341 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Today will signal the last day to the extended stretch of winter
warmth that we have experienced. Beyond today, winter-like
temperatures and conditions will return. The main concern during
this period will be the potential for accumulating snow over the
weekend.

A ridge of high pressure is shifting east into the Ohio Valley early
this morning. Back to the west an upper level shortwave is moving
through the Rockies allowing a cold front to strengthen across the
northern and central Plains. This will cause the pressure gradient
to tighten across the area providing for strong southerly winds and
good mixing today. 850mb temperatures will range between 13C-16C
providing for afternoon highs in the upper 50s to the lower 70s
across the southwestern CWA. Tonight the aforementioned upper level
shortwave moves through the Plains and into the local area forcing a
cold front through the area. By Thursday, the upper level trough
will push east of the area leaving the region under northwest flow
aloft. At the surface, strong CAA will be ongoing behind the cold
front. That, accompanied with mostly cloudy skies will provide for a
return to more seasonable highs in the low to mid 40s. High pressure
will move into the area Thursday night and remain over the area
through the day on Friday. A cold start with lows in the low to mid
20s, coupled with weak mixed will only yield highs in the mid 30s to
lower 40s on Friday.

The forecast become challenging over the weekend as an evolving
storm system gets organized and poised to bring precipitation to the
area. The system in question will involve the merging of a deep
trough over the southwestern CONUS on Saturday and an upper level
shortwave diving south out of the Canadian Rockies into the central
Plains. These two system look to merge over the Plains on Saturday.
Precipitation will move into the area on Saturday morning out ahead
of a cold front. P-type on Saturday is still uncertain at this point
however, model sounding suggest that near surface temperatures will
be warm enough to support rain at this time. However, there are ice
crystals in the snow growth zone so precipitation may fall as snow
if the warm layer near the surface is not as deep as represented
however, snow is not expected to accumulate. Saturday night the cold
front will push through the area with CAA behind it. This should
sufficiently cool the entire column below freezing. The question at
this time is there ice crystals in the snow growth zone. Soundings
suggest that there are and that should provide for a period of snow
Saturday night into Sunday. The phased upper level trough will move
through the area on Sunday with snow coming to an end from west to
east during the day. Highs Sunday will only reach into the upper 20s
to mid 30s. Surface high pressure then quickly moves into the
forecast area Sunday night providing for good radiational cooling.
Lows by Monday morning will be the coldest we have seen since the
beginning of January in the single digits and lower teens. Monday
will be dry and cold as surface high pressure remains on the area
with highs in the teens in the upper teens to mid 20s. Models are
suggesting a shortwave will move through the region on Monday
night/Tuesday but spatial and timing difference among the models
preclude more than slight chance POPs for that timeframe.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR conditions expected to continue through the forecast period.
Winds will veer through the overnight hours and will ultimately
prevail out of the southwest by the end of the forecast. Will see
gusty conditions up to 25kts beginning in the late morning Wednesday
before tapering off near 00Z.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 280941
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
341 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Today will signal the last day to the extended stretch of winter
warmth that we have experienced. Beyond today, winter-like
temperatures and conditions will return. The main concern during
this period will be the potential for accumulating snow over the
weekend.

A ridge of high pressure is shifting east into the Ohio Valley early
this morning. Back to the west an upper level shortwave is moving
through the Rockies allowing a cold front to strengthen across the
northern and central Plains. This will cause the pressure gradient
to tighten across the area providing for strong southerly winds and
good mixing today. 850mb temperatures will range between 13C-16C
providing for afternoon highs in the upper 50s to the lower 70s
across the southwestern CWA. Tonight the aforementioned upper level
shortwave moves through the Plains and into the local area forcing a
cold front through the area. By Thursday, the upper level trough
will push east of the area leaving the region under northwest flow
aloft. At the surface, strong CAA will be ongoing behind the cold
front. That, accompanied with mostly cloudy skies will provide for a
return to more seasonable highs in the low to mid 40s. High pressure
will move into the area Thursday night and remain over the area
through the day on Friday. A cold start with lows in the low to mid
20s, coupled with weak mixed will only yield highs in the mid 30s to
lower 40s on Friday.

The forecast become challenging over the weekend as an evolving
storm system gets organized and poised to bring precipitation to the
area. The system in question will involve the merging of a deep
trough over the southwestern CONUS on Saturday and an upper level
shortwave diving south out of the Canadian Rockies into the central
Plains. These two system look to merge over the Plains on Saturday.
Precipitation will move into the area on Saturday morning out ahead
of a cold front. P-type on Saturday is still uncertain at this point
however, model sounding suggest that near surface temperatures will
be warm enough to support rain at this time. However, there are ice
crystals in the snow growth zone so precipitation may fall as snow
if the warm layer near the surface is not as deep as represented
however, snow is not expected to accumulate. Saturday night the cold
front will push through the area with CAA behind it. This should
sufficiently cool the entire column below freezing. The question at
this time is there ice crystals in the snow growth zone. Soundings
suggest that there are and that should provide for a period of snow
Saturday night into Sunday. The phased upper level trough will move
through the area on Sunday with snow coming to an end from west to
east during the day. Highs Sunday will only reach into the upper 20s
to mid 30s. Surface high pressure then quickly moves into the
forecast area Sunday night providing for good radiational cooling.
Lows by Monday morning will be the coldest we have seen since the
beginning of January in the single digits and lower teens. Monday
will be dry and cold as surface high pressure remains on the area
with highs in the teens in the upper teens to mid 20s. Models are
suggesting a shortwave will move through the region on Monday
night/Tuesday but spatial and timing difference among the models
preclude more than slight chance POPs for that timeframe.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR conditions expected to continue through the forecast period.
Winds will veer through the overnight hours and will ultimately
prevail out of the southwest by the end of the forecast. Will see
gusty conditions up to 25kts beginning in the late morning Wednesday
before tapering off near 00Z.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KEAX 280941
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
341 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Today will signal the last day to the extended stretch of winter
warmth that we have experienced. Beyond today, winter-like
temperatures and conditions will return. The main concern during
this period will be the potential for accumulating snow over the
weekend.

A ridge of high pressure is shifting east into the Ohio Valley early
this morning. Back to the west an upper level shortwave is moving
through the Rockies allowing a cold front to strengthen across the
northern and central Plains. This will cause the pressure gradient
to tighten across the area providing for strong southerly winds and
good mixing today. 850mb temperatures will range between 13C-16C
providing for afternoon highs in the upper 50s to the lower 70s
across the southwestern CWA. Tonight the aforementioned upper level
shortwave moves through the Plains and into the local area forcing a
cold front through the area. By Thursday, the upper level trough
will push east of the area leaving the region under northwest flow
aloft. At the surface, strong CAA will be ongoing behind the cold
front. That, accompanied with mostly cloudy skies will provide for a
return to more seasonable highs in the low to mid 40s. High pressure
will move into the area Thursday night and remain over the area
through the day on Friday. A cold start with lows in the low to mid
20s, coupled with weak mixed will only yield highs in the mid 30s to
lower 40s on Friday.

The forecast become challenging over the weekend as an evolving
storm system gets organized and poised to bring precipitation to the
area. The system in question will involve the merging of a deep
trough over the southwestern CONUS on Saturday and an upper level
shortwave diving south out of the Canadian Rockies into the central
Plains. These two system look to merge over the Plains on Saturday.
Precipitation will move into the area on Saturday morning out ahead
of a cold front. P-type on Saturday is still uncertain at this point
however, model sounding suggest that near surface temperatures will
be warm enough to support rain at this time. However, there are ice
crystals in the snow growth zone so precipitation may fall as snow
if the warm layer near the surface is not as deep as represented
however, snow is not expected to accumulate. Saturday night the cold
front will push through the area with CAA behind it. This should
sufficiently cool the entire column below freezing. The question at
this time is there ice crystals in the snow growth zone. Soundings
suggest that there are and that should provide for a period of snow
Saturday night into Sunday. The phased upper level trough will move
through the area on Sunday with snow coming to an end from west to
east during the day. Highs Sunday will only reach into the upper 20s
to mid 30s. Surface high pressure then quickly moves into the
forecast area Sunday night providing for good radiational cooling.
Lows by Monday morning will be the coldest we have seen since the
beginning of January in the single digits and lower teens. Monday
will be dry and cold as surface high pressure remains on the area
with highs in the teens in the upper teens to mid 20s. Models are
suggesting a shortwave will move through the region on Monday
night/Tuesday but spatial and timing difference among the models
preclude more than slight chance POPs for that timeframe.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR conditions expected to continue through the forecast period.
Winds will veer through the overnight hours and will ultimately
prevail out of the southwest by the end of the forecast. Will see
gusty conditions up to 25kts beginning in the late morning Wednesday
before tapering off near 00Z.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KEAX 280941
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
341 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Today will signal the last day to the extended stretch of winter
warmth that we have experienced. Beyond today, winter-like
temperatures and conditions will return. The main concern during
this period will be the potential for accumulating snow over the
weekend.

A ridge of high pressure is shifting east into the Ohio Valley early
this morning. Back to the west an upper level shortwave is moving
through the Rockies allowing a cold front to strengthen across the
northern and central Plains. This will cause the pressure gradient
to tighten across the area providing for strong southerly winds and
good mixing today. 850mb temperatures will range between 13C-16C
providing for afternoon highs in the upper 50s to the lower 70s
across the southwestern CWA. Tonight the aforementioned upper level
shortwave moves through the Plains and into the local area forcing a
cold front through the area. By Thursday, the upper level trough
will push east of the area leaving the region under northwest flow
aloft. At the surface, strong CAA will be ongoing behind the cold
front. That, accompanied with mostly cloudy skies will provide for a
return to more seasonable highs in the low to mid 40s. High pressure
will move into the area Thursday night and remain over the area
through the day on Friday. A cold start with lows in the low to mid
20s, coupled with weak mixed will only yield highs in the mid 30s to
lower 40s on Friday.

The forecast become challenging over the weekend as an evolving
storm system gets organized and poised to bring precipitation to the
area. The system in question will involve the merging of a deep
trough over the southwestern CONUS on Saturday and an upper level
shortwave diving south out of the Canadian Rockies into the central
Plains. These two system look to merge over the Plains on Saturday.
Precipitation will move into the area on Saturday morning out ahead
of a cold front. P-type on Saturday is still uncertain at this point
however, model sounding suggest that near surface temperatures will
be warm enough to support rain at this time. However, there are ice
crystals in the snow growth zone so precipitation may fall as snow
if the warm layer near the surface is not as deep as represented
however, snow is not expected to accumulate. Saturday night the cold
front will push through the area with CAA behind it. This should
sufficiently cool the entire column below freezing. The question at
this time is there ice crystals in the snow growth zone. Soundings
suggest that there are and that should provide for a period of snow
Saturday night into Sunday. The phased upper level trough will move
through the area on Sunday with snow coming to an end from west to
east during the day. Highs Sunday will only reach into the upper 20s
to mid 30s. Surface high pressure then quickly moves into the
forecast area Sunday night providing for good radiational cooling.
Lows by Monday morning will be the coldest we have seen since the
beginning of January in the single digits and lower teens. Monday
will be dry and cold as surface high pressure remains on the area
with highs in the teens in the upper teens to mid 20s. Models are
suggesting a shortwave will move through the region on Monday
night/Tuesday but spatial and timing difference among the models
preclude more than slight chance POPs for that timeframe.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR conditions expected to continue through the forecast period.
Winds will veer through the overnight hours and will ultimately
prevail out of the southwest by the end of the forecast. Will see
gusty conditions up to 25kts beginning in the late morning Wednesday
before tapering off near 00Z.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KEAX 280941
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
341 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Today will signal the last day to the extended stretch of winter
warmth that we have experienced. Beyond today, winter-like
temperatures and conditions will return. The main concern during
this period will be the potential for accumulating snow over the
weekend.

A ridge of high pressure is shifting east into the Ohio Valley early
this morning. Back to the west an upper level shortwave is moving
through the Rockies allowing a cold front to strengthen across the
northern and central Plains. This will cause the pressure gradient
to tighten across the area providing for strong southerly winds and
good mixing today. 850mb temperatures will range between 13C-16C
providing for afternoon highs in the upper 50s to the lower 70s
across the southwestern CWA. Tonight the aforementioned upper level
shortwave moves through the Plains and into the local area forcing a
cold front through the area. By Thursday, the upper level trough
will push east of the area leaving the region under northwest flow
aloft. At the surface, strong CAA will be ongoing behind the cold
front. That, accompanied with mostly cloudy skies will provide for a
return to more seasonable highs in the low to mid 40s. High pressure
will move into the area Thursday night and remain over the area
through the day on Friday. A cold start with lows in the low to mid
20s, coupled with weak mixed will only yield highs in the mid 30s to
lower 40s on Friday.

The forecast become challenging over the weekend as an evolving
storm system gets organized and poised to bring precipitation to the
area. The system in question will involve the merging of a deep
trough over the southwestern CONUS on Saturday and an upper level
shortwave diving south out of the Canadian Rockies into the central
Plains. These two system look to merge over the Plains on Saturday.
Precipitation will move into the area on Saturday morning out ahead
of a cold front. P-type on Saturday is still uncertain at this point
however, model sounding suggest that near surface temperatures will
be warm enough to support rain at this time. However, there are ice
crystals in the snow growth zone so precipitation may fall as snow
if the warm layer near the surface is not as deep as represented
however, snow is not expected to accumulate. Saturday night the cold
front will push through the area with CAA behind it. This should
sufficiently cool the entire column below freezing. The question at
this time is there ice crystals in the snow growth zone. Soundings
suggest that there are and that should provide for a period of snow
Saturday night into Sunday. The phased upper level trough will move
through the area on Sunday with snow coming to an end from west to
east during the day. Highs Sunday will only reach into the upper 20s
to mid 30s. Surface high pressure then quickly moves into the
forecast area Sunday night providing for good radiational cooling.
Lows by Monday morning will be the coldest we have seen since the
beginning of January in the single digits and lower teens. Monday
will be dry and cold as surface high pressure remains on the area
with highs in the teens in the upper teens to mid 20s. Models are
suggesting a shortwave will move through the region on Monday
night/Tuesday but spatial and timing difference among the models
preclude more than slight chance POPs for that timeframe.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR conditions expected to continue through the forecast period.
Winds will veer through the overnight hours and will ultimately
prevail out of the southwest by the end of the forecast. Will see
gusty conditions up to 25kts beginning in the late morning Wednesday
before tapering off near 00Z.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KEAX 280941
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
341 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Today will signal the last day to the extended stretch of winter
warmth that we have experienced. Beyond today, winter-like
temperatures and conditions will return. The main concern during
this period will be the potential for accumulating snow over the
weekend.

A ridge of high pressure is shifting east into the Ohio Valley early
this morning. Back to the west an upper level shortwave is moving
through the Rockies allowing a cold front to strengthen across the
northern and central Plains. This will cause the pressure gradient
to tighten across the area providing for strong southerly winds and
good mixing today. 850mb temperatures will range between 13C-16C
providing for afternoon highs in the upper 50s to the lower 70s
across the southwestern CWA. Tonight the aforementioned upper level
shortwave moves through the Plains and into the local area forcing a
cold front through the area. By Thursday, the upper level trough
will push east of the area leaving the region under northwest flow
aloft. At the surface, strong CAA will be ongoing behind the cold
front. That, accompanied with mostly cloudy skies will provide for a
return to more seasonable highs in the low to mid 40s. High pressure
will move into the area Thursday night and remain over the area
through the day on Friday. A cold start with lows in the low to mid
20s, coupled with weak mixed will only yield highs in the mid 30s to
lower 40s on Friday.

The forecast become challenging over the weekend as an evolving
storm system gets organized and poised to bring precipitation to the
area. The system in question will involve the merging of a deep
trough over the southwestern CONUS on Saturday and an upper level
shortwave diving south out of the Canadian Rockies into the central
Plains. These two system look to merge over the Plains on Saturday.
Precipitation will move into the area on Saturday morning out ahead
of a cold front. P-type on Saturday is still uncertain at this point
however, model sounding suggest that near surface temperatures will
be warm enough to support rain at this time. However, there are ice
crystals in the snow growth zone so precipitation may fall as snow
if the warm layer near the surface is not as deep as represented
however, snow is not expected to accumulate. Saturday night the cold
front will push through the area with CAA behind it. This should
sufficiently cool the entire column below freezing. The question at
this time is there ice crystals in the snow growth zone. Soundings
suggest that there are and that should provide for a period of snow
Saturday night into Sunday. The phased upper level trough will move
through the area on Sunday with snow coming to an end from west to
east during the day. Highs Sunday will only reach into the upper 20s
to mid 30s. Surface high pressure then quickly moves into the
forecast area Sunday night providing for good radiational cooling.
Lows by Monday morning will be the coldest we have seen since the
beginning of January in the single digits and lower teens. Monday
will be dry and cold as surface high pressure remains on the area
with highs in the teens in the upper teens to mid 20s. Models are
suggesting a shortwave will move through the region on Monday
night/Tuesday but spatial and timing difference among the models
preclude more than slight chance POPs for that timeframe.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR conditions expected to continue through the forecast period.
Winds will veer through the overnight hours and will ultimately
prevail out of the southwest by the end of the forecast. Will see
gusty conditions up to 25kts beginning in the late morning Wednesday
before tapering off near 00Z.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KLSX 280939
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
339 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 339 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Satellite data at 08z showed the area of low clouds that had been
across west-central IL had moved off to the north, propelled by low
level flow from the SE, leaving behind clear skies across the entire
forecast area.  Temps were in the 20s for most areas save central MO
where readings were in the low 30s.  A surface warm front extended
from southern NE to northeastern OK.  NW flow prevailed aloft with
an upper level RIDGE over the Plains.

The surface warm front is expected to make steady progress today
into central MO by late afternoon.  While moisture levels in the
atmospheric column are expected to rise to above average levels, the
lack of any real deep lift other than from the front will preclude
any pcpn development thru early this evening.  In fact, clouds are
expected to be rather thin for much of the day until late, allowing
plenty of sunshine.

The high levels of sunshine and what should be a stout southerly
surface flow will allow temps to surge today, especially in central
MO where the surface warm front is expected to reach.  MOS temps
have been consistently on the cool side for similar scenarios this
year.  Forecasted values that were around the warmer MAV MOS for IL,
yielding 45-50F for maxes, and went up to a few degrees above the
MAV MOS for MO, yielding low 50s near the MS river to the low 60s in
central MO.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

(Tonight through Friday)

With little precip expected thru the period, focus remains on temps.

Mdls are in very good agreement thru the period with respect to mass
fields and thermal profiles. Still, spread among MOS temps increases
thru the period, tho is less than usual. Have trended twd the warmer
guidance for tonight as clouds shud help keep temps warmer. Trended
twd a compromise thru the remainder of the period as cloud cover and
CAA will oppose one another, increasing uncertainty.

Continued low PoPs for nern/ern portions of the CWA for tonight and
Thurs morning as the clipper pushes thru the area.

(Saturday through Tuesday)

Focus quickly turns to the system approaching the region this
weekend. Mdls are in remarkably good agreement thru the end of the
storm on Mon. Overall, mdls are rather consistent compared to 24 hrs
ago. However, the ECMWF is slightly less amplified and slightly
warmer while the GFS suggests a deeper trof and overall cooler. The
GEM is further nwd with the 850 mb track compared to the other
solns.

Increased PoPs for late Sat thru Sun as mdls continue to suggest
precip thru this time and precip is expected. However, a fair amount
of uncertainty remains regarding p-type thru this storm. Still, it
shud remain largely a RA vs. SN system. With the uncertainty in the
thermal profile, only minor changes were made to p-types for this
system. This storm will remain one to monitor.

Beyond this storm, much colder air filters into the region as the
arctic sfc ridge builds into the area. Have trended slightly cooler.
Any SN pack from the preceding system may drive temps even cooler
than forecast. Will continue with an overall compromise for now.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

Stratus has straddled KUIN over the last few hours. Southeastern
edge however has pushed north and westward and may yield Quincy
with mostly clear skies in a couple of hours once again. With the
clear skies...fog will likely affect KUIN and KSUS/KCPS. Winds
will veer to the southeast and then south by morning. As pressure
gradient strengthens...winds will gust between 20 and 25 knots at
terminals. Mid to high level cloudiness should be on the increase
ahead of next weather system Wednesday afternoon/evening but
terminals are expected to remain dry.


Specifics for KSTL:

Some MVFR fog is possible at Lambert overnight tonight as
temperature approaches dewpoint. Winds aoa 5 knots however is
expected to preclude development so left out of TAF. Winds will veer
to the southeast and then south by morning. As pressure gradient
strengthens...winds will gust between 20 and 25 knots. Mid to high
level cloudiness should be on the increase ahead of next weather
system Wednesday afternoon/evening but terminals are expected to
remain dry. Trailing cold frontal boundary should move through
late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. Winds will abruptly
swing to the west with gusts 25-30 knots.

Gosselin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     52  41  44  25 /   0  10  10   0
Quincy          49  36  40  21 /   0  20  10   0
Columbia        61  39  43  24 /   0  10   5   0
Jefferson City  62  39  45  24 /   0   5   5   0
Salem           45  39  43  25 /   0  20  20   0
Farmington      51  41  45  25 /   0  10   5   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 280939
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
339 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 339 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Satellite data at 08z showed the area of low clouds that had been
across west-central IL had moved off to the north, propelled by low
level flow from the SE, leaving behind clear skies across the entire
forecast area.  Temps were in the 20s for most areas save central MO
where readings were in the low 30s.  A surface warm front extended
from southern NE to northeastern OK.  NW flow prevailed aloft with
an upper level RIDGE over the Plains.

The surface warm front is expected to make steady progress today
into central MO by late afternoon.  While moisture levels in the
atmospheric column are expected to rise to above average levels, the
lack of any real deep lift other than from the front will preclude
any pcpn development thru early this evening.  In fact, clouds are
expected to be rather thin for much of the day until late, allowing
plenty of sunshine.

The high levels of sunshine and what should be a stout southerly
surface flow will allow temps to surge today, especially in central
MO where the surface warm front is expected to reach.  MOS temps
have been consistently on the cool side for similar scenarios this
year.  Forecasted values that were around the warmer MAV MOS for IL,
yielding 45-50F for maxes, and went up to a few degrees above the
MAV MOS for MO, yielding low 50s near the MS river to the low 60s in
central MO.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

(Tonight through Friday)

With little precip expected thru the period, focus remains on temps.

Mdls are in very good agreement thru the period with respect to mass
fields and thermal profiles. Still, spread among MOS temps increases
thru the period, tho is less than usual. Have trended twd the warmer
guidance for tonight as clouds shud help keep temps warmer. Trended
twd a compromise thru the remainder of the period as cloud cover and
CAA will oppose one another, increasing uncertainty.

Continued low PoPs for nern/ern portions of the CWA for tonight and
Thurs morning as the clipper pushes thru the area.

(Saturday through Tuesday)

Focus quickly turns to the system approaching the region this
weekend. Mdls are in remarkably good agreement thru the end of the
storm on Mon. Overall, mdls are rather consistent compared to 24 hrs
ago. However, the ECMWF is slightly less amplified and slightly
warmer while the GFS suggests a deeper trof and overall cooler. The
GEM is further nwd with the 850 mb track compared to the other
solns.

Increased PoPs for late Sat thru Sun as mdls continue to suggest
precip thru this time and precip is expected. However, a fair amount
of uncertainty remains regarding p-type thru this storm. Still, it
shud remain largely a RA vs. SN system. With the uncertainty in the
thermal profile, only minor changes were made to p-types for this
system. This storm will remain one to monitor.

Beyond this storm, much colder air filters into the region as the
arctic sfc ridge builds into the area. Have trended slightly cooler.
Any SN pack from the preceding system may drive temps even cooler
than forecast. Will continue with an overall compromise for now.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

Stratus has straddled KUIN over the last few hours. Southeastern
edge however has pushed north and westward and may yield Quincy
with mostly clear skies in a couple of hours once again. With the
clear skies...fog will likely affect KUIN and KSUS/KCPS. Winds
will veer to the southeast and then south by morning. As pressure
gradient strengthens...winds will gust between 20 and 25 knots at
terminals. Mid to high level cloudiness should be on the increase
ahead of next weather system Wednesday afternoon/evening but
terminals are expected to remain dry.


Specifics for KSTL:

Some MVFR fog is possible at Lambert overnight tonight as
temperature approaches dewpoint. Winds aoa 5 knots however is
expected to preclude development so left out of TAF. Winds will veer
to the southeast and then south by morning. As pressure gradient
strengthens...winds will gust between 20 and 25 knots. Mid to high
level cloudiness should be on the increase ahead of next weather
system Wednesday afternoon/evening but terminals are expected to
remain dry. Trailing cold frontal boundary should move through
late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. Winds will abruptly
swing to the west with gusts 25-30 knots.

Gosselin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     52  41  44  25 /   0  10  10   0
Quincy          49  36  40  21 /   0  20  10   0
Columbia        61  39  43  24 /   0  10   5   0
Jefferson City  62  39  45  24 /   0   5   5   0
Salem           45  39  43  25 /   0  20  20   0
Farmington      51  41  45  25 /   0  10   5   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 280939
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
339 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Today will signal the last day to the extended stretch of winter
warmth that we have experienced. Beyond today, winter-like
temperatures conditions will return. The main concern during this
period will be the potential for accumulating snow over the weekend.

A ridge of high pressure is shifting east into the Ohio Valley early
this morning. Back to the west an upper level shortwave is moving
through the Rockies allowing a cold front to strengthen across the
northern and central Plains. This will cause the pressure gradient
to tighten across the area providing for strong southerly winds and
good mixing today. 850mb temperatures will range between 13C-16C
providing for afternoon highs in the upper 50s to the lower 70s
across the southwestern CWA. Tonight the aforementioned upper level
shortwave moves through the Plains and into the local area forcing a
cold front through the area. By Thursday, the upper level trough
will push east of the area leaving the region under northwest flow
aloft. At the surface, strong CAA will be ongoing behind the cold
front. That, accompanied with mostly cloudy skies will provide for a
return to more seasonable highs in the low to mid 40s. High pressure
will move into the area Thursday night and remain over the area
through the day on Friday. A cold start with lows in the low to mid
20s, coupled with weak mixed will only yield highs in the mid 30s to
lower 40s on Friday.

The forecast become challenging over the weekend as an evolving
storm system gets organized and poised to bring precipitation to the
area. The system in question will involve the merging of a deep
trough over the southwestern CONUS on Saturday and an upper level
shortwave diving south out of the Canadian Rockies into the central
Plains. These two system look to merge over the Plains on Saturday.
Precipitation will move into the area on Saturday morning out ahead
of a cold front. P-type on Saturday is still uncertain at this point
however, model sounding suggest that near surface temperatures will
be warm enough to support rain at this time. However, there are ice
crystals in the snow growth zone so precipitation may fall as snow
if the warm layer near the surface is not as deep as represented
however, snow is not expected to accumulate. Saturday night the cold
front will push through the area with CAA behind it. This should
sufficiently cool the entire column below freezing. The question at
this time is there ice crystals in the snow growth zone. Soundings
suggest that there are and that should provide for a period of snow
Saturday night into Sunday. The phased upper level trough will move
through the area on Sunday with snow coming to an end from west to
east during the day. Highs Sunday will only reach into the upper 20s
to mid 30s. Surface high pressure then quickly moves into the
forecast area Sunday night providing for good radiational cooling.
Lows by Monday morning will be the coldest we have seen since the
beginning of January in the single digits and lower teens. Monday
will be dry and cold as surface high pressure remains on the area
with highs in the teens in the upper teens to mid 20s. Models are
suggesting a shortwave will move through the region on Monday
night/Tuesday but spatial and timing difference among the models
preclude more than slight chance POPs for that timeframe.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR conditions expected to continue through the forecast period.
Winds will veer through the overnight hours and will ultimately
prevail out of the southwest by the end of the forecast. Will see
gusty conditions up to 25kts beginning in the late morning Wednesday
before tapering off near 00Z.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KEAX 280939
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
339 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Today will signal the last day to the extended stretch of winter
warmth that we have experienced. Beyond today, winter-like
temperatures conditions will return. The main concern during this
period will be the potential for accumulating snow over the weekend.

A ridge of high pressure is shifting east into the Ohio Valley early
this morning. Back to the west an upper level shortwave is moving
through the Rockies allowing a cold front to strengthen across the
northern and central Plains. This will cause the pressure gradient
to tighten across the area providing for strong southerly winds and
good mixing today. 850mb temperatures will range between 13C-16C
providing for afternoon highs in the upper 50s to the lower 70s
across the southwestern CWA. Tonight the aforementioned upper level
shortwave moves through the Plains and into the local area forcing a
cold front through the area. By Thursday, the upper level trough
will push east of the area leaving the region under northwest flow
aloft. At the surface, strong CAA will be ongoing behind the cold
front. That, accompanied with mostly cloudy skies will provide for a
return to more seasonable highs in the low to mid 40s. High pressure
will move into the area Thursday night and remain over the area
through the day on Friday. A cold start with lows in the low to mid
20s, coupled with weak mixed will only yield highs in the mid 30s to
lower 40s on Friday.

The forecast become challenging over the weekend as an evolving
storm system gets organized and poised to bring precipitation to the
area. The system in question will involve the merging of a deep
trough over the southwestern CONUS on Saturday and an upper level
shortwave diving south out of the Canadian Rockies into the central
Plains. These two system look to merge over the Plains on Saturday.
Precipitation will move into the area on Saturday morning out ahead
of a cold front. P-type on Saturday is still uncertain at this point
however, model sounding suggest that near surface temperatures will
be warm enough to support rain at this time. However, there are ice
crystals in the snow growth zone so precipitation may fall as snow
if the warm layer near the surface is not as deep as represented
however, snow is not expected to accumulate. Saturday night the cold
front will push through the area with CAA behind it. This should
sufficiently cool the entire column below freezing. The question at
this time is there ice crystals in the snow growth zone. Soundings
suggest that there are and that should provide for a period of snow
Saturday night into Sunday. The phased upper level trough will move
through the area on Sunday with snow coming to an end from west to
east during the day. Highs Sunday will only reach into the upper 20s
to mid 30s. Surface high pressure then quickly moves into the
forecast area Sunday night providing for good radiational cooling.
Lows by Monday morning will be the coldest we have seen since the
beginning of January in the single digits and lower teens. Monday
will be dry and cold as surface high pressure remains on the area
with highs in the teens in the upper teens to mid 20s. Models are
suggesting a shortwave will move through the region on Monday
night/Tuesday but spatial and timing difference among the models
preclude more than slight chance POPs for that timeframe.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR conditions expected to continue through the forecast period.
Winds will veer through the overnight hours and will ultimately
prevail out of the southwest by the end of the forecast. Will see
gusty conditions up to 25kts beginning in the late morning Wednesday
before tapering off near 00Z.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KEAX 280939
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
339 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Today will signal the last day to the extended stretch of winter
warmth that we have experienced. Beyond today, winter-like
temperatures conditions will return. The main concern during this
period will be the potential for accumulating snow over the weekend.

A ridge of high pressure is shifting east into the Ohio Valley early
this morning. Back to the west an upper level shortwave is moving
through the Rockies allowing a cold front to strengthen across the
northern and central Plains. This will cause the pressure gradient
to tighten across the area providing for strong southerly winds and
good mixing today. 850mb temperatures will range between 13C-16C
providing for afternoon highs in the upper 50s to the lower 70s
across the southwestern CWA. Tonight the aforementioned upper level
shortwave moves through the Plains and into the local area forcing a
cold front through the area. By Thursday, the upper level trough
will push east of the area leaving the region under northwest flow
aloft. At the surface, strong CAA will be ongoing behind the cold
front. That, accompanied with mostly cloudy skies will provide for a
return to more seasonable highs in the low to mid 40s. High pressure
will move into the area Thursday night and remain over the area
through the day on Friday. A cold start with lows in the low to mid
20s, coupled with weak mixed will only yield highs in the mid 30s to
lower 40s on Friday.

The forecast become challenging over the weekend as an evolving
storm system gets organized and poised to bring precipitation to the
area. The system in question will involve the merging of a deep
trough over the southwestern CONUS on Saturday and an upper level
shortwave diving south out of the Canadian Rockies into the central
Plains. These two system look to merge over the Plains on Saturday.
Precipitation will move into the area on Saturday morning out ahead
of a cold front. P-type on Saturday is still uncertain at this point
however, model sounding suggest that near surface temperatures will
be warm enough to support rain at this time. However, there are ice
crystals in the snow growth zone so precipitation may fall as snow
if the warm layer near the surface is not as deep as represented
however, snow is not expected to accumulate. Saturday night the cold
front will push through the area with CAA behind it. This should
sufficiently cool the entire column below freezing. The question at
this time is there ice crystals in the snow growth zone. Soundings
suggest that there are and that should provide for a period of snow
Saturday night into Sunday. The phased upper level trough will move
through the area on Sunday with snow coming to an end from west to
east during the day. Highs Sunday will only reach into the upper 20s
to mid 30s. Surface high pressure then quickly moves into the
forecast area Sunday night providing for good radiational cooling.
Lows by Monday morning will be the coldest we have seen since the
beginning of January in the single digits and lower teens. Monday
will be dry and cold as surface high pressure remains on the area
with highs in the teens in the upper teens to mid 20s. Models are
suggesting a shortwave will move through the region on Monday
night/Tuesday but spatial and timing difference among the models
preclude more than slight chance POPs for that timeframe.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR conditions expected to continue through the forecast period.
Winds will veer through the overnight hours and will ultimately
prevail out of the southwest by the end of the forecast. Will see
gusty conditions up to 25kts beginning in the late morning Wednesday
before tapering off near 00Z.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KEAX 280939
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
339 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Today will signal the last day to the extended stretch of winter
warmth that we have experienced. Beyond today, winter-like
temperatures conditions will return. The main concern during this
period will be the potential for accumulating snow over the weekend.

A ridge of high pressure is shifting east into the Ohio Valley early
this morning. Back to the west an upper level shortwave is moving
through the Rockies allowing a cold front to strengthen across the
northern and central Plains. This will cause the pressure gradient
to tighten across the area providing for strong southerly winds and
good mixing today. 850mb temperatures will range between 13C-16C
providing for afternoon highs in the upper 50s to the lower 70s
across the southwestern CWA. Tonight the aforementioned upper level
shortwave moves through the Plains and into the local area forcing a
cold front through the area. By Thursday, the upper level trough
will push east of the area leaving the region under northwest flow
aloft. At the surface, strong CAA will be ongoing behind the cold
front. That, accompanied with mostly cloudy skies will provide for a
return to more seasonable highs in the low to mid 40s. High pressure
will move into the area Thursday night and remain over the area
through the day on Friday. A cold start with lows in the low to mid
20s, coupled with weak mixed will only yield highs in the mid 30s to
lower 40s on Friday.

The forecast become challenging over the weekend as an evolving
storm system gets organized and poised to bring precipitation to the
area. The system in question will involve the merging of a deep
trough over the southwestern CONUS on Saturday and an upper level
shortwave diving south out of the Canadian Rockies into the central
Plains. These two system look to merge over the Plains on Saturday.
Precipitation will move into the area on Saturday morning out ahead
of a cold front. P-type on Saturday is still uncertain at this point
however, model sounding suggest that near surface temperatures will
be warm enough to support rain at this time. However, there are ice
crystals in the snow growth zone so precipitation may fall as snow
if the warm layer near the surface is not as deep as represented
however, snow is not expected to accumulate. Saturday night the cold
front will push through the area with CAA behind it. This should
sufficiently cool the entire column below freezing. The question at
this time is there ice crystals in the snow growth zone. Soundings
suggest that there are and that should provide for a period of snow
Saturday night into Sunday. The phased upper level trough will move
through the area on Sunday with snow coming to an end from west to
east during the day. Highs Sunday will only reach into the upper 20s
to mid 30s. Surface high pressure then quickly moves into the
forecast area Sunday night providing for good radiational cooling.
Lows by Monday morning will be the coldest we have seen since the
beginning of January in the single digits and lower teens. Monday
will be dry and cold as surface high pressure remains on the area
with highs in the teens in the upper teens to mid 20s. Models are
suggesting a shortwave will move through the region on Monday
night/Tuesday but spatial and timing difference among the models
preclude more than slight chance POPs for that timeframe.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR conditions expected to continue through the forecast period.
Winds will veer through the overnight hours and will ultimately
prevail out of the southwest by the end of the forecast. Will see
gusty conditions up to 25kts beginning in the late morning Wednesday
before tapering off near 00Z.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KLSX 280939
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
339 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 339 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Satellite data at 08z showed the area of low clouds that had been
across west-central IL had moved off to the north, propelled by low
level flow from the SE, leaving behind clear skies across the entire
forecast area.  Temps were in the 20s for most areas save central MO
where readings were in the low 30s.  A surface warm front extended
from southern NE to northeastern OK.  NW flow prevailed aloft with
an upper level RIDGE over the Plains.

The surface warm front is expected to make steady progress today
into central MO by late afternoon.  While moisture levels in the
atmospheric column are expected to rise to above average levels, the
lack of any real deep lift other than from the front will preclude
any pcpn development thru early this evening.  In fact, clouds are
expected to be rather thin for much of the day until late, allowing
plenty of sunshine.

The high levels of sunshine and what should be a stout southerly
surface flow will allow temps to surge today, especially in central
MO where the surface warm front is expected to reach.  MOS temps
have been consistently on the cool side for similar scenarios this
year.  Forecasted values that were around the warmer MAV MOS for IL,
yielding 45-50F for maxes, and went up to a few degrees above the
MAV MOS for MO, yielding low 50s near the MS river to the low 60s in
central MO.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

(Tonight through Friday)

With little precip expected thru the period, focus remains on temps.

Mdls are in very good agreement thru the period with respect to mass
fields and thermal profiles. Still, spread among MOS temps increases
thru the period, tho is less than usual. Have trended twd the warmer
guidance for tonight as clouds shud help keep temps warmer. Trended
twd a compromise thru the remainder of the period as cloud cover and
CAA will oppose one another, increasing uncertainty.

Continued low PoPs for nern/ern portions of the CWA for tonight and
Thurs morning as the clipper pushes thru the area.

(Saturday through Tuesday)

Focus quickly turns to the system approaching the region this
weekend. Mdls are in remarkably good agreement thru the end of the
storm on Mon. Overall, mdls are rather consistent compared to 24 hrs
ago. However, the ECMWF is slightly less amplified and slightly
warmer while the GFS suggests a deeper trof and overall cooler. The
GEM is further nwd with the 850 mb track compared to the other
solns.

Increased PoPs for late Sat thru Sun as mdls continue to suggest
precip thru this time and precip is expected. However, a fair amount
of uncertainty remains regarding p-type thru this storm. Still, it
shud remain largely a RA vs. SN system. With the uncertainty in the
thermal profile, only minor changes were made to p-types for this
system. This storm will remain one to monitor.

Beyond this storm, much colder air filters into the region as the
arctic sfc ridge builds into the area. Have trended slightly cooler.
Any SN pack from the preceding system may drive temps even cooler
than forecast. Will continue with an overall compromise for now.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

Stratus has straddled KUIN over the last few hours. Southeastern
edge however has pushed north and westward and may yield Quincy
with mostly clear skies in a couple of hours once again. With the
clear skies...fog will likely affect KUIN and KSUS/KCPS. Winds
will veer to the southeast and then south by morning. As pressure
gradient strengthens...winds will gust between 20 and 25 knots at
terminals. Mid to high level cloudiness should be on the increase
ahead of next weather system Wednesday afternoon/evening but
terminals are expected to remain dry.


Specifics for KSTL:

Some MVFR fog is possible at Lambert overnight tonight as
temperature approaches dewpoint. Winds aoa 5 knots however is
expected to preclude development so left out of TAF. Winds will veer
to the southeast and then south by morning. As pressure gradient
strengthens...winds will gust between 20 and 25 knots. Mid to high
level cloudiness should be on the increase ahead of next weather
system Wednesday afternoon/evening but terminals are expected to
remain dry. Trailing cold frontal boundary should move through
late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. Winds will abruptly
swing to the west with gusts 25-30 knots.

Gosselin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     52  41  44  25 /   0  10  10   0
Quincy          49  36  40  21 /   0  20  10   0
Columbia        61  39  43  24 /   0  10   5   0
Jefferson City  62  39  45  24 /   0   5   5   0
Salem           45  39  43  25 /   0  20  20   0
Farmington      51  41  45  25 /   0  10   5   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 280939
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
339 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Today will signal the last day to the extended stretch of winter
warmth that we have experienced. Beyond today, winter-like
temperatures conditions will return. The main concern during this
period will be the potential for accumulating snow over the weekend.

A ridge of high pressure is shifting east into the Ohio Valley early
this morning. Back to the west an upper level shortwave is moving
through the Rockies allowing a cold front to strengthen across the
northern and central Plains. This will cause the pressure gradient
to tighten across the area providing for strong southerly winds and
good mixing today. 850mb temperatures will range between 13C-16C
providing for afternoon highs in the upper 50s to the lower 70s
across the southwestern CWA. Tonight the aforementioned upper level
shortwave moves through the Plains and into the local area forcing a
cold front through the area. By Thursday, the upper level trough
will push east of the area leaving the region under northwest flow
aloft. At the surface, strong CAA will be ongoing behind the cold
front. That, accompanied with mostly cloudy skies will provide for a
return to more seasonable highs in the low to mid 40s. High pressure
will move into the area Thursday night and remain over the area
through the day on Friday. A cold start with lows in the low to mid
20s, coupled with weak mixed will only yield highs in the mid 30s to
lower 40s on Friday.

The forecast become challenging over the weekend as an evolving
storm system gets organized and poised to bring precipitation to the
area. The system in question will involve the merging of a deep
trough over the southwestern CONUS on Saturday and an upper level
shortwave diving south out of the Canadian Rockies into the central
Plains. These two system look to merge over the Plains on Saturday.
Precipitation will move into the area on Saturday morning out ahead
of a cold front. P-type on Saturday is still uncertain at this point
however, model sounding suggest that near surface temperatures will
be warm enough to support rain at this time. However, there are ice
crystals in the snow growth zone so precipitation may fall as snow
if the warm layer near the surface is not as deep as represented
however, snow is not expected to accumulate. Saturday night the cold
front will push through the area with CAA behind it. This should
sufficiently cool the entire column below freezing. The question at
this time is there ice crystals in the snow growth zone. Soundings
suggest that there are and that should provide for a period of snow
Saturday night into Sunday. The phased upper level trough will move
through the area on Sunday with snow coming to an end from west to
east during the day. Highs Sunday will only reach into the upper 20s
to mid 30s. Surface high pressure then quickly moves into the
forecast area Sunday night providing for good radiational cooling.
Lows by Monday morning will be the coldest we have seen since the
beginning of January in the single digits and lower teens. Monday
will be dry and cold as surface high pressure remains on the area
with highs in the teens in the upper teens to mid 20s. Models are
suggesting a shortwave will move through the region on Monday
night/Tuesday but spatial and timing difference among the models
preclude more than slight chance POPs for that timeframe.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR conditions expected to continue through the forecast period.
Winds will veer through the overnight hours and will ultimately
prevail out of the southwest by the end of the forecast. Will see
gusty conditions up to 25kts beginning in the late morning Wednesday
before tapering off near 00Z.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KSGF 280836
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
236 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Quite the range of temperatures early this morning across the
forecast area with low 30s near Vichy and upper 40s over by JLN
and southeast Kansas. Also getting channeled southeast wind
direction at Springfield which has been gusty so far tonight. Air
remains fairly dry in the western CWA with RH values in JLN still
in the 40s. This may become a problem later today with a gusty
south wind and temperatures warming to around 70 for some elevated
fire conditions.

The temperatures and elevated fire conditions today will be the
main short term focus.

In the extended period, the main focus will be on the storm system
to affect the region this weekend and what if any Winter weather
will occur as a result.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

For today, a shortwave currently in the Rockies as viewed on water
vapor imagery was beginning to now shift eastward and will track
east into the northern and central Plains during the day today. As
it does, a surface low pressure system will push from the Dakotas
into southwest Iowa with a trailing frontal system by early
evening into southeast Kansas and central Oklahoma. Out ahead of
the system, gusty south winds are expected today with a tightening
pressure gradient setting up and should also see some higher
gustiness set up with some late morning and afternoon mixing.
Drier air already in place in the western CWA and we are
forecasting highs in the upper 60s to low 70s there this
afternoon. This will cause afternoon humidity levels to dip into
the upper 20s to low 30s, combining with a gusty wind of 30 to 35
mph at times to bring elevated fire weather conditions over
about the western half of the CWA this afternoon. (See fire
weather discussion for more details).

Will see that cold front and shortwave energy track east across
the aera tonight. Best lift and moisture will be much further to
the north and east of the area and will keep a dry forecast going
for now.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Temperatures behind the front will certainly be cooler with highs
on Thursday expected in the 40s to around 50 with lows in the mid
to upper 20s on Thursday night. A storm system will push into the
southwest coast and Baja regions on Thursday night. Energy from
this system will break off from the main developing low (which is
expected to close off and remain well to the southwest) and merge
with a southeastward moving shortwave from the northern stream in
Canada on Saturday/Saturday night. Precipitation is expected to
occur with this system over the area from Saturday through Sunday.
The main question will be whether it will be snow and/or rain.
Believe that it will be mostly rain on Saturday given the warmer
surface temperatures expected. On Saturday night, temperature
profiles over northern CWA would support more snow with rain or
snow in the south and rain or snow into Sunday as colder air depth
continues to increase. Any remaining precipitation by Sunday night
would be in the snow form. Again, we will be in the transition
zone of rain/snow and for much of the forecast period with
precipitation will be going with rain/snow at this time.

Significantly cooler air will move in behind the system for Sunday
night into Monday with lows in the teens and highs Monday only in
the 20s to around 30.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected with
increasing winds. High pressure over the OH Vly will continue to
shift east as low pressure and a cold front approach the region
from the west during this taf period. Kept low level shear at all
taf sites for much of the taf period. S-SE winds will increase
over the next few hours, especially at KSGF with enhanced terrain
winds. Progged soundings support close to 30 kt gusts at KJLN and
possibly KSGF at times before diminishing a bit after 29/00z as
winds veer with the approaching front.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected later today with
temperatures forecast to reach the low 70s over the western
forecast area. Forecast afternoon RH values will be in the upper
20s to low 30s out west with relatively dry or dormant grass
vegetation. Will likely issue an SPS highlighting fire concerns
later today. Upcoming shift will need to monitor for potential of
upgrade to Red Flag Warning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...DSA
FIRE WEATHER...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 280836
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
236 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Quite the range of temperatures early this morning across the
forecast area with low 30s near Vichy and upper 40s over by JLN
and southeast Kansas. Also getting channeled southeast wind
direction at Springfield which has been gusty so far tonight. Air
remains fairly dry in the western CWA with RH values in JLN still
in the 40s. This may become a problem later today with a gusty
south wind and temperatures warming to around 70 for some elevated
fire conditions.

The temperatures and elevated fire conditions today will be the
main short term focus.

In the extended period, the main focus will be on the storm system
to affect the region this weekend and what if any Winter weather
will occur as a result.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

For today, a shortwave currently in the Rockies as viewed on water
vapor imagery was beginning to now shift eastward and will track
east into the northern and central Plains during the day today. As
it does, a surface low pressure system will push from the Dakotas
into southwest Iowa with a trailing frontal system by early
evening into southeast Kansas and central Oklahoma. Out ahead of
the system, gusty south winds are expected today with a tightening
pressure gradient setting up and should also see some higher
gustiness set up with some late morning and afternoon mixing.
Drier air already in place in the western CWA and we are
forecasting highs in the upper 60s to low 70s there this
afternoon. This will cause afternoon humidity levels to dip into
the upper 20s to low 30s, combining with a gusty wind of 30 to 35
mph at times to bring elevated fire weather conditions over
about the western half of the CWA this afternoon. (See fire
weather discussion for more details).

Will see that cold front and shortwave energy track east across
the aera tonight. Best lift and moisture will be much further to
the north and east of the area and will keep a dry forecast going
for now.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Temperatures behind the front will certainly be cooler with highs
on Thursday expected in the 40s to around 50 with lows in the mid
to upper 20s on Thursday night. A storm system will push into the
southwest coast and Baja regions on Thursday night. Energy from
this system will break off from the main developing low (which is
expected to close off and remain well to the southwest) and merge
with a southeastward moving shortwave from the northern stream in
Canada on Saturday/Saturday night. Precipitation is expected to
occur with this system over the area from Saturday through Sunday.
The main question will be whether it will be snow and/or rain.
Believe that it will be mostly rain on Saturday given the warmer
surface temperatures expected. On Saturday night, temperature
profiles over northern CWA would support more snow with rain or
snow in the south and rain or snow into Sunday as colder air depth
continues to increase. Any remaining precipitation by Sunday night
would be in the snow form. Again, we will be in the transition
zone of rain/snow and for much of the forecast period with
precipitation will be going with rain/snow at this time.

Significantly cooler air will move in behind the system for Sunday
night into Monday with lows in the teens and highs Monday only in
the 20s to around 30.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected with
increasing winds. High pressure over the OH Vly will continue to
shift east as low pressure and a cold front approach the region
from the west during this taf period. Kept low level shear at all
taf sites for much of the taf period. S-SE winds will increase
over the next few hours, especially at KSGF with enhanced terrain
winds. Progged soundings support close to 30 kt gusts at KJLN and
possibly KSGF at times before diminishing a bit after 29/00z as
winds veer with the approaching front.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected later today with
temperatures forecast to reach the low 70s over the western
forecast area. Forecast afternoon RH values will be in the upper
20s to low 30s out west with relatively dry or dormant grass
vegetation. Will likely issue an SPS highlighting fire concerns
later today. Upcoming shift will need to monitor for potential of
upgrade to Red Flag Warning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...DSA
FIRE WEATHER...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 280836
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
236 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Quite the range of temperatures early this morning across the
forecast area with low 30s near Vichy and upper 40s over by JLN
and southeast Kansas. Also getting channeled southeast wind
direction at Springfield which has been gusty so far tonight. Air
remains fairly dry in the western CWA with RH values in JLN still
in the 40s. This may become a problem later today with a gusty
south wind and temperatures warming to around 70 for some elevated
fire conditions.

The temperatures and elevated fire conditions today will be the
main short term focus.

In the extended period, the main focus will be on the storm system
to affect the region this weekend and what if any Winter weather
will occur as a result.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

For today, a shortwave currently in the Rockies as viewed on water
vapor imagery was beginning to now shift eastward and will track
east into the northern and central Plains during the day today. As
it does, a surface low pressure system will push from the Dakotas
into southwest Iowa with a trailing frontal system by early
evening into southeast Kansas and central Oklahoma. Out ahead of
the system, gusty south winds are expected today with a tightening
pressure gradient setting up and should also see some higher
gustiness set up with some late morning and afternoon mixing.
Drier air already in place in the western CWA and we are
forecasting highs in the upper 60s to low 70s there this
afternoon. This will cause afternoon humidity levels to dip into
the upper 20s to low 30s, combining with a gusty wind of 30 to 35
mph at times to bring elevated fire weather conditions over
about the western half of the CWA this afternoon. (See fire
weather discussion for more details).

Will see that cold front and shortwave energy track east across
the aera tonight. Best lift and moisture will be much further to
the north and east of the area and will keep a dry forecast going
for now.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Temperatures behind the front will certainly be cooler with highs
on Thursday expected in the 40s to around 50 with lows in the mid
to upper 20s on Thursday night. A storm system will push into the
southwest coast and Baja regions on Thursday night. Energy from
this system will break off from the main developing low (which is
expected to close off and remain well to the southwest) and merge
with a southeastward moving shortwave from the northern stream in
Canada on Saturday/Saturday night. Precipitation is expected to
occur with this system over the area from Saturday through Sunday.
The main question will be whether it will be snow and/or rain.
Believe that it will be mostly rain on Saturday given the warmer
surface temperatures expected. On Saturday night, temperature
profiles over northern CWA would support more snow with rain or
snow in the south and rain or snow into Sunday as colder air depth
continues to increase. Any remaining precipitation by Sunday night
would be in the snow form. Again, we will be in the transition
zone of rain/snow and for much of the forecast period with
precipitation will be going with rain/snow at this time.

Significantly cooler air will move in behind the system for Sunday
night into Monday with lows in the teens and highs Monday only in
the 20s to around 30.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected with
increasing winds. High pressure over the OH Vly will continue to
shift east as low pressure and a cold front approach the region
from the west during this taf period. Kept low level shear at all
taf sites for much of the taf period. S-SE winds will increase
over the next few hours, especially at KSGF with enhanced terrain
winds. Progged soundings support close to 30 kt gusts at KJLN and
possibly KSGF at times before diminishing a bit after 29/00z as
winds veer with the approaching front.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected later today with
temperatures forecast to reach the low 70s over the western
forecast area. Forecast afternoon RH values will be in the upper
20s to low 30s out west with relatively dry or dormant grass
vegetation. Will likely issue an SPS highlighting fire concerns
later today. Upcoming shift will need to monitor for potential of
upgrade to Red Flag Warning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...DSA
FIRE WEATHER...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 280836
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
236 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Quite the range of temperatures early this morning across the
forecast area with low 30s near Vichy and upper 40s over by JLN
and southeast Kansas. Also getting channeled southeast wind
direction at Springfield which has been gusty so far tonight. Air
remains fairly dry in the western CWA with RH values in JLN still
in the 40s. This may become a problem later today with a gusty
south wind and temperatures warming to around 70 for some elevated
fire conditions.

The temperatures and elevated fire conditions today will be the
main short term focus.

In the extended period, the main focus will be on the storm system
to affect the region this weekend and what if any Winter weather
will occur as a result.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

For today, a shortwave currently in the Rockies as viewed on water
vapor imagery was beginning to now shift eastward and will track
east into the northern and central Plains during the day today. As
it does, a surface low pressure system will push from the Dakotas
into southwest Iowa with a trailing frontal system by early
evening into southeast Kansas and central Oklahoma. Out ahead of
the system, gusty south winds are expected today with a tightening
pressure gradient setting up and should also see some higher
gustiness set up with some late morning and afternoon mixing.
Drier air already in place in the western CWA and we are
forecasting highs in the upper 60s to low 70s there this
afternoon. This will cause afternoon humidity levels to dip into
the upper 20s to low 30s, combining with a gusty wind of 30 to 35
mph at times to bring elevated fire weather conditions over
about the western half of the CWA this afternoon. (See fire
weather discussion for more details).

Will see that cold front and shortwave energy track east across
the aera tonight. Best lift and moisture will be much further to
the north and east of the area and will keep a dry forecast going
for now.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Temperatures behind the front will certainly be cooler with highs
on Thursday expected in the 40s to around 50 with lows in the mid
to upper 20s on Thursday night. A storm system will push into the
southwest coast and Baja regions on Thursday night. Energy from
this system will break off from the main developing low (which is
expected to close off and remain well to the southwest) and merge
with a southeastward moving shortwave from the northern stream in
Canada on Saturday/Saturday night. Precipitation is expected to
occur with this system over the area from Saturday through Sunday.
The main question will be whether it will be snow and/or rain.
Believe that it will be mostly rain on Saturday given the warmer
surface temperatures expected. On Saturday night, temperature
profiles over northern CWA would support more snow with rain or
snow in the south and rain or snow into Sunday as colder air depth
continues to increase. Any remaining precipitation by Sunday night
would be in the snow form. Again, we will be in the transition
zone of rain/snow and for much of the forecast period with
precipitation will be going with rain/snow at this time.

Significantly cooler air will move in behind the system for Sunday
night into Monday with lows in the teens and highs Monday only in
the 20s to around 30.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected with
increasing winds. High pressure over the OH Vly will continue to
shift east as low pressure and a cold front approach the region
from the west during this taf period. Kept low level shear at all
taf sites for much of the taf period. S-SE winds will increase
over the next few hours, especially at KSGF with enhanced terrain
winds. Progged soundings support close to 30 kt gusts at KJLN and
possibly KSGF at times before diminishing a bit after 29/00z as
winds veer with the approaching front.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected later today with
temperatures forecast to reach the low 70s over the western
forecast area. Forecast afternoon RH values will be in the upper
20s to low 30s out west with relatively dry or dormant grass
vegetation. Will likely issue an SPS highlighting fire concerns
later today. Upcoming shift will need to monitor for potential of
upgrade to Red Flag Warning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...DSA
FIRE WEATHER...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 280555
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1155 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Quiet and mild weather expected through this period. Surface high
pushes east of the forecast area tonight as shortwave trough begins
to drop through the central plains. As this occurs surface pressure
gradient begins to tighten as low level warm advection increases.
With dry atmosphere expect little in the way of clouds. Biggest
sensible weather will be warm temperatures Wednesday along with
strengthening winds. Model guidance trend has been upward with
regards to afternoon highs, especially in the western areas and thus
trended slightly warmer than previous forecast. Will likely see
readings in the lower 70s across southeast Kansas and far western
Missouri...with mid and upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks. As for
winds expect them to remain below advisory criteria...but will
likely see gusts to 30 to 35 mph...especially in areas west of
Interstate 49.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Aforementioned shortwave trough will remain north of the area
Wednesday night...but will drag a cold front across the area late
Wednesday night into the early morning hours of Thursday. Outside of
just some clouds, precipitation will remain well north and east of
the area. However, temperatures will fall back to seasonable normals
for both Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds back in from
the northern Plains.

Attention then turns to eastward progression of a 500mb southwest
conus low and is associated surface reflection. Medium range models
have trended a little slower with the precipitation shield, with the
12Z GEM keeping Friday night dry and and the 12Z GFS pushing it to
the Kansas/Missouri border by 12Z. Models still indicating that bulk
of precipitation will fall Saturday night which becomes more
problematic in terms of precipitation type. Broad low level warm
advection ahead of the system expected to keep temperatures up on
Saturday. Still enough model differences in the low level thermal
profiles to add much specificity to the grids, but the highest
probability for any accumulating snow would be Saturday night. For
now will continue the rain and snow for the grids. Precipitation
looks to end Sunday with high pressure then settling in Monday and
Tuesday for quiet but seasonable weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected with
increasing winds. High pressure over the OH Vly will continue to
shift east as low pressure and a cold front approach the region
from the west during this taf period. Kept low level shear at all
taf sites for much of the taf period. S-SE winds will increase
over the next few hours, especially at KSGF with enhanced terrain
winds. Progged soundings support close to 30 kt gusts at KJLN and
possibly KSGF at times before diminishing a bit after 29/00z as
winds veer with the approaching front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1142 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Bumped up fire weather message a bit for Wednesday. With fcst
temperatures reaching the low 70s over the western cwfa, could mix
down some dry air during the day. MOS dew points in the lower 40s
(KJLN) would support RH values in the lower 30s (%). With wind
gusts of 30-35 mph, modest recent rainfall, and dry dormant
vegetation (especially grasses), mentioned elevated fire potential
for the western cwfa in the Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO).

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...DSA
FIRE WEATHER...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 280555
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1155 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Quiet and mild weather expected through this period. Surface high
pushes east of the forecast area tonight as shortwave trough begins
to drop through the central plains. As this occurs surface pressure
gradient begins to tighten as low level warm advection increases.
With dry atmosphere expect little in the way of clouds. Biggest
sensible weather will be warm temperatures Wednesday along with
strengthening winds. Model guidance trend has been upward with
regards to afternoon highs, especially in the western areas and thus
trended slightly warmer than previous forecast. Will likely see
readings in the lower 70s across southeast Kansas and far western
Missouri...with mid and upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks. As for
winds expect them to remain below advisory criteria...but will
likely see gusts to 30 to 35 mph...especially in areas west of
Interstate 49.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Aforementioned shortwave trough will remain north of the area
Wednesday night...but will drag a cold front across the area late
Wednesday night into the early morning hours of Thursday. Outside of
just some clouds, precipitation will remain well north and east of
the area. However, temperatures will fall back to seasonable normals
for both Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds back in from
the northern Plains.

Attention then turns to eastward progression of a 500mb southwest
conus low and is associated surface reflection. Medium range models
have trended a little slower with the precipitation shield, with the
12Z GEM keeping Friday night dry and and the 12Z GFS pushing it to
the Kansas/Missouri border by 12Z. Models still indicating that bulk
of precipitation will fall Saturday night which becomes more
problematic in terms of precipitation type. Broad low level warm
advection ahead of the system expected to keep temperatures up on
Saturday. Still enough model differences in the low level thermal
profiles to add much specificity to the grids, but the highest
probability for any accumulating snow would be Saturday night. For
now will continue the rain and snow for the grids. Precipitation
looks to end Sunday with high pressure then settling in Monday and
Tuesday for quiet but seasonable weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected with
increasing winds. High pressure over the OH Vly will continue to
shift east as low pressure and a cold front approach the region
from the west during this taf period. Kept low level shear at all
taf sites for much of the taf period. S-SE winds will increase
over the next few hours, especially at KSGF with enhanced terrain
winds. Progged soundings support close to 30 kt gusts at KJLN and
possibly KSGF at times before diminishing a bit after 29/00z as
winds veer with the approaching front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1142 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Bumped up fire weather message a bit for Wednesday. With fcst
temperatures reaching the low 70s over the western cwfa, could mix
down some dry air during the day. MOS dew points in the lower 40s
(KJLN) would support RH values in the lower 30s (%). With wind
gusts of 30-35 mph, modest recent rainfall, and dry dormant
vegetation (especially grasses), mentioned elevated fire potential
for the western cwfa in the Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO).

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...DSA
FIRE WEATHER...DSA






000
FXUS63 KSGF 280555
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1155 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Quiet and mild weather expected through this period. Surface high
pushes east of the forecast area tonight as shortwave trough begins
to drop through the central plains. As this occurs surface pressure
gradient begins to tighten as low level warm advection increases.
With dry atmosphere expect little in the way of clouds. Biggest
sensible weather will be warm temperatures Wednesday along with
strengthening winds. Model guidance trend has been upward with
regards to afternoon highs, especially in the western areas and thus
trended slightly warmer than previous forecast. Will likely see
readings in the lower 70s across southeast Kansas and far western
Missouri...with mid and upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks. As for
winds expect them to remain below advisory criteria...but will
likely see gusts to 30 to 35 mph...especially in areas west of
Interstate 49.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Aforementioned shortwave trough will remain north of the area
Wednesday night...but will drag a cold front across the area late
Wednesday night into the early morning hours of Thursday. Outside of
just some clouds, precipitation will remain well north and east of
the area. However, temperatures will fall back to seasonable normals
for both Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds back in from
the northern Plains.

Attention then turns to eastward progression of a 500mb southwest
conus low and is associated surface reflection. Medium range models
have trended a little slower with the precipitation shield, with the
12Z GEM keeping Friday night dry and and the 12Z GFS pushing it to
the Kansas/Missouri border by 12Z. Models still indicating that bulk
of precipitation will fall Saturday night which becomes more
problematic in terms of precipitation type. Broad low level warm
advection ahead of the system expected to keep temperatures up on
Saturday. Still enough model differences in the low level thermal
profiles to add much specificity to the grids, but the highest
probability for any accumulating snow would be Saturday night. For
now will continue the rain and snow for the grids. Precipitation
looks to end Sunday with high pressure then settling in Monday and
Tuesday for quiet but seasonable weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected with
increasing winds. High pressure over the OH Vly will continue to
shift east as low pressure and a cold front approach the region
from the west during this taf period. Kept low level shear at all
taf sites for much of the taf period. S-SE winds will increase
over the next few hours, especially at KSGF with enhanced terrain
winds. Progged soundings support close to 30 kt gusts at KJLN and
possibly KSGF at times before diminishing a bit after 29/00z as
winds veer with the approaching front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1142 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Bumped up fire weather message a bit for Wednesday. With fcst
temperatures reaching the low 70s over the western cwfa, could mix
down some dry air during the day. MOS dew points in the lower 40s
(KJLN) would support RH values in the lower 30s (%). With wind
gusts of 30-35 mph, modest recent rainfall, and dry dormant
vegetation (especially grasses), mentioned elevated fire potential
for the western cwfa in the Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO).

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...DSA
FIRE WEATHER...DSA






000
FXUS63 KLSX 280549
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1149 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 400 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

Surface ridge extending from WI southwest into northern MO will
strengthen and move southeastward into the Ohio Valley region by 12Z
Wednesday.  Persistent low level cloud cover extends across eastern
IA and much of IL this afternoon with some diurnally driven
cloudiness across eastern MO.  Much of the cloud cover over eastern
MO should dissipate early this evening.  The models try to slowly
dissipate and advect eastward the more solid cloud cover across
eastern IA and IL tonight.  While this is possible due to at least
weak subsidence across the area, would not be surprised if this
cloud cover remains trapped under the inversion and actually
retrogrades some westward tonight as the surface/boundary layer wind
veers around to an easterly direction this evening.  If this low
level cloud cover remains through the night the MOS minimum
temperature guidance may be a little too cool across the IL counties
of our forecast area.  Lows tonight across the western portion of
the forecast area will be warmer despite less cloud cover due to
increasing low level warm air advection on the nose of a
southwesterly low level jet.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 400 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

(Wednesday-Friday)

12z guidance continues to support thinking that a strong but brief
warmup will occur tomorrow, followed by a cooling trend
that should send temps to below average levels by the end of the
work week.  Have maintained current forecast highs for Wednesday,
which is several degrees warmer than warmest GFS MAV.  In spite of
the very strong inversion that is forecast to limit mixing still
think warmer is the way to go, as guidance hasn`t been robust enough
the past few times we`ve had strong warming.  I`m also uncertain how
much cloudiness there will be; worse case for warming would be that
this afternoon`s low clouds manage to hang around in the morning,
but increasing southerly surface winds should advect them back out
of the area for the afternoon.

Cold front will sweep through the region Wednesday night, with the
resultant cold advection only allowing a minimal daytime rebound
during the day on Thursday.   I have also continued some slight
chance PoPs late Wednesday night and into Thursday morning as
shortwave drops into the mid-Mississippi Valley, but moisture
certainly looks scant at this time.

The chunk of cold air that pushes into the area on Thursday should
continue to exert its influence on Friday, with highs about a
category lower than those on Thursday.

(Saturday-Tuesday)

Over the past few days models have come into much better agreement
for this upcoming weekend, with upper low cutting off over the
southwestern U.S. while fairly active westerlies continue from the
Pacific NW, through the Mississippi Valley, into the east coast.
All medium range guidance now supports the idea that broad
overrunning will develop in the wake of the cold surface ridge on
Saturday, which should lead to at least a chance of precip over much
of the area.  However, a strong shortwave in the westerlies will add
additional large scale lift Saturday night and into Sunday, and have
upped PoPs a bit more during this time.

While precip is looking more promising, still lots of unknowns about
ptype.  850mb temps are genenerally below 0C and certainly on
Saturday evaporative cooling should try to cool the lower levels of
the AMS enough to support snow.  However, forecast soundings are
also suggesting low level temp profile will become isothermal at
around 0C on Saturday night and Sunday, which suggests ptype go be
either liquid or frozen.  I have leaned ptype a bit more towards
snow, but still kept some mention of a mix because of the above
thermal profile.

A large chunk of very cold air will drop into the region behind the
weekend system, and by the start of the new work week we will likely
be reminded that winter is certainly not over.   Have stayed with
initialization guidance for highs on Monday...generally ranging from
the lower 20s to the lower 30s.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

Stratus has straddled KUIN over the last few hours. Southeastern
edge however has pushed north and westward and may yield Quincy
with mostly clear skies in a couple of hours once again. With the
clear skies...fog will likely affect KUIN and KSUS/KCPS. Winds
will veer to the southeast and then south by morning. As pressure
gradient strengthens...winds will gust between 20 and 25 knots at
terminals. Mid to high level cloudiness should be on the increase
ahead of next weather system Wednesday afternoon/evening but
terminals are expected to remain dry.


Specifics for KSTL:

Some MVFR fog is possible at Lambert overnight tonight as
temperature approaches dewpoint. Winds aoa 5 knots however is
expected to preclude development so left out of TAF. Winds will veer
to the southeast and then south by morning. As pressure gradient
strengthens...winds will gust between 20 and 25 knots. Mid to high
level cloudiness should be on the increase ahead of next weather
system Wednesday afternoon/evening but terminals are expected to
remain dry. Trailing cold frontal boundary should move through
late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. Winds will abruptly
swing to the west with gusts 25-30 knots.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 280508
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1108 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 341 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

In the short term, the main story will be temperatures as a surface
low slides eastward across the MO/IA border and a series of two
shortwave troughs push into the Great Lakes region, enhancing
southerly flow tomorrow and then pushing a surface cold front
through by Thursday morning.

High temperatures tomorrow afternoon will reach the upper 60s to
perhaps lower 70s in southwestern portions of the forecast area, as
a result of 850 mb temperatures in the +12 to +15 range and mixing
to nearly that level as south southwesterly low-level winds
increase. Mainly clear skies during much of the day will also
promote heating, and a dry-ish boundary layer should prevent any
afternoon cu development, especially across the western half of the
forecast area.

The cold front will slide through the CWA between 05z-09z Thursday,
resulting in steadily decreasing temperatures during the morning.
Some recovery into the mid 40s is expected as associated cloud cover
shifts eastward during the afternoon, but cold air advection will
still keep highs much cooler than Wednesday`s near record warmth.
Measurable precipitation with this system is expected to remain to
the north and east of the forecast area due to generally low deep
moisture availability, although light drizzle or a few sprinkles
aren`t out of the question for far northeast MO early Thursday
morning where shallow low-level saturation is a bit more prevalent.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Friday - Friday night...

Shortwave ridging aloft will dampen as it shifts east into the
Southern Plains as an upper system closes off over southwestern U.S.
and northwest Mexico. Surface high from MN through MO will retreat
east as weak warm advection begins to spread east. However, overall
effect on sensible weather is nil and expect to see near seasonal
temperatures.

Saturday - Sunday night...

While the medium range models, especially the ECMWF and GFS, are
converging on a solution which brings an increasing chance for
precipitation over the CWA, snow and how much are less certain. Once
the upper system moves inland it will be better sampled and the
forecast confidence will improve. That being said it appears the
upper low which closes off over AZ will not phase with the northern
stream shortwave trough that sharpens as it dives southeast through
NE/IA/MO.

Based on the above scenario would expect to see an initial batch of
warm advection/isentropically induced precipitation spread across
the CWA on Saturday. Inspection of the GFS and lower resolution
ECMWF sounding profiles shows top-down saturation but with an above
freezing near-surface layer. The primary question is whether or not
cold air will be in place prior to the onset of precipitation. With
a southerly boundary layer and no cooling aloft have to lean more
towards rain or rain/snow mix until Saturday night when colder air
arrives with the northern streams attendant cold front. Too early
plus low confidence to consider snow amounts this far out. Do think
better chance for accumulating snow is over northern and eastern
counties of the CWA. Back edge of deformation cloud shield should
harbor all snow and will clear from west to east quickly.

Monday - Tuesday...

Strong subsidence and arrival of arctic airmass allows us to lower
temperatures both days and even then we may be too conservative.
Fast northwest flow could easily hide a weak impulse or two which
could generate light snow by Tuesday....if not earlier. For now will
leave forecast dry with much below average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR conditions expected to continue through the forecast period.
Winds will veer through the overnight hours and will ultimately
prevail out of the southwest by the end of the forecast. Will see
gusty conditions up to 25kts beginning in the late morning Wednesday
before tapering off near 00Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 280508
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1108 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 341 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

In the short term, the main story will be temperatures as a surface
low slides eastward across the MO/IA border and a series of two
shortwave troughs push into the Great Lakes region, enhancing
southerly flow tomorrow and then pushing a surface cold front
through by Thursday morning.

High temperatures tomorrow afternoon will reach the upper 60s to
perhaps lower 70s in southwestern portions of the forecast area, as
a result of 850 mb temperatures in the +12 to +15 range and mixing
to nearly that level as south southwesterly low-level winds
increase. Mainly clear skies during much of the day will also
promote heating, and a dry-ish boundary layer should prevent any
afternoon cu development, especially across the western half of the
forecast area.

The cold front will slide through the CWA between 05z-09z Thursday,
resulting in steadily decreasing temperatures during the morning.
Some recovery into the mid 40s is expected as associated cloud cover
shifts eastward during the afternoon, but cold air advection will
still keep highs much cooler than Wednesday`s near record warmth.
Measurable precipitation with this system is expected to remain to
the north and east of the forecast area due to generally low deep
moisture availability, although light drizzle or a few sprinkles
aren`t out of the question for far northeast MO early Thursday
morning where shallow low-level saturation is a bit more prevalent.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Friday - Friday night...

Shortwave ridging aloft will dampen as it shifts east into the
Southern Plains as an upper system closes off over southwestern U.S.
and northwest Mexico. Surface high from MN through MO will retreat
east as weak warm advection begins to spread east. However, overall
effect on sensible weather is nil and expect to see near seasonal
temperatures.

Saturday - Sunday night...

While the medium range models, especially the ECMWF and GFS, are
converging on a solution which brings an increasing chance for
precipitation over the CWA, snow and how much are less certain. Once
the upper system moves inland it will be better sampled and the
forecast confidence will improve. That being said it appears the
upper low which closes off over AZ will not phase with the northern
stream shortwave trough that sharpens as it dives southeast through
NE/IA/MO.

Based on the above scenario would expect to see an initial batch of
warm advection/isentropically induced precipitation spread across
the CWA on Saturday. Inspection of the GFS and lower resolution
ECMWF sounding profiles shows top-down saturation but with an above
freezing near-surface layer. The primary question is whether or not
cold air will be in place prior to the onset of precipitation. With
a southerly boundary layer and no cooling aloft have to lean more
towards rain or rain/snow mix until Saturday night when colder air
arrives with the northern streams attendant cold front. Too early
plus low confidence to consider snow amounts this far out. Do think
better chance for accumulating snow is over northern and eastern
counties of the CWA. Back edge of deformation cloud shield should
harbor all snow and will clear from west to east quickly.

Monday - Tuesday...

Strong subsidence and arrival of arctic airmass allows us to lower
temperatures both days and even then we may be too conservative.
Fast northwest flow could easily hide a weak impulse or two which
could generate light snow by Tuesday....if not earlier. For now will
leave forecast dry with much below average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR conditions expected to continue through the forecast period.
Winds will veer through the overnight hours and will ultimately
prevail out of the southwest by the end of the forecast. Will see
gusty conditions up to 25kts beginning in the late morning Wednesday
before tapering off near 00Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KSGF 272354
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
554 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Quiet and mild weather expected through this period. Surface high
pushes east of the forecast area tonight as shortwave trough begins
to drop through the central plains. As this occurs surface pressure
gradient begins to tighten as low level warm advection increases.
With dry atmosphere expect little in the way of clouds. Biggest
sensible weather will be warm temperatures Wednesday along with
strengthening winds. Model guidance trend has been upward with
regards to afternoon highs, especially in the western areas and thus
trended slightly warmer than previous forecast. Will likely see
readings in the lower 70s across southeast Kansas and far western
Missouri...with mid and upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks. As for
winds expect them to remain below advisory criteria...but will
likely see gusts to 30 to 35 mph...especially in areas west of
Interstate 49.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Aforementioned shortwave trough will remain north of the area
Wednesday night...but will drag a cold front across the area late
Wednesday night into the early morning hours of Thursday. Outside of
just some clouds, precipitation will remain well north and east of
the area. However, temperatures will fall back to seasonable normals
for both Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds back in from
the northern Plains.

Attention then turns to eastward progression of a 500mb southwest
conus low and is associated surface reflection. Medium range models
have trended a little slower with the precipitation shield, with the
12Z GEM keeping Friday night dry and and the 12Z GFS pushing it to
the Kansas/Missouri border by 12Z. Models still indicating that bulk
of precipitation will fall Saturday night which becomes more
problematic in terms of precipitation type. Broad low level warm
advection ahead of the system expected to keep temperatures up on
Saturday. Still enough model differences in the low level thermal
profiles to add much specificity to the grids, but the highest
probability for any accumulating snow would be Saturday night. For
now will continue the rain and snow for the grids. Precipitation
looks to end Sunday with high pressure then settling in Monday and
Tuesday for quiet but seasonable weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 540 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Generally speaking...VFR conditions are anticipated through the
period. There remains, however, the concerns with increasing wind
shear overnight as the LLJ intensifies. Additionally, guidance is
bringing in relatively higher low level RH values Wednesday
morning, especially for Springfield and Branson terminals albeit
"FEW" at the most. Finally, surface winds will be gusty Wednesday
afternoon as the LLJ is mixed down to the surface.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Hatch/Frye






000
FXUS63 KSGF 272354
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
554 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Quiet and mild weather expected through this period. Surface high
pushes east of the forecast area tonight as shortwave trough begins
to drop through the central plains. As this occurs surface pressure
gradient begins to tighten as low level warm advection increases.
With dry atmosphere expect little in the way of clouds. Biggest
sensible weather will be warm temperatures Wednesday along with
strengthening winds. Model guidance trend has been upward with
regards to afternoon highs, especially in the western areas and thus
trended slightly warmer than previous forecast. Will likely see
readings in the lower 70s across southeast Kansas and far western
Missouri...with mid and upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks. As for
winds expect them to remain below advisory criteria...but will
likely see gusts to 30 to 35 mph...especially in areas west of
Interstate 49.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Aforementioned shortwave trough will remain north of the area
Wednesday night...but will drag a cold front across the area late
Wednesday night into the early morning hours of Thursday. Outside of
just some clouds, precipitation will remain well north and east of
the area. However, temperatures will fall back to seasonable normals
for both Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds back in from
the northern Plains.

Attention then turns to eastward progression of a 500mb southwest
conus low and is associated surface reflection. Medium range models
have trended a little slower with the precipitation shield, with the
12Z GEM keeping Friday night dry and and the 12Z GFS pushing it to
the Kansas/Missouri border by 12Z. Models still indicating that bulk
of precipitation will fall Saturday night which becomes more
problematic in terms of precipitation type. Broad low level warm
advection ahead of the system expected to keep temperatures up on
Saturday. Still enough model differences in the low level thermal
profiles to add much specificity to the grids, but the highest
probability for any accumulating snow would be Saturday night. For
now will continue the rain and snow for the grids. Precipitation
looks to end Sunday with high pressure then settling in Monday and
Tuesday for quiet but seasonable weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 540 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Generally speaking...VFR conditions are anticipated through the
period. There remains, however, the concerns with increasing wind
shear overnight as the LLJ intensifies. Additionally, guidance is
bringing in relatively higher low level RH values Wednesday
morning, especially for Springfield and Branson terminals albeit
"FEW" at the most. Finally, surface winds will be gusty Wednesday
afternoon as the LLJ is mixed down to the surface.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Hatch/Frye







000
FXUS63 KLSX 272338
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
538 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 400 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

Surface ridge extending from WI southwest into northern MO will
strengthen and move southeastward into the Ohio Valley region by 12Z
Wednesday.  Persistent low level cloud cover extends across eastern
IA and much of IL this afternoon with some diurnally driven
cloudiness across eastern MO.  Much of the cloud cover over eastern
MO should dissipate early this evening.  The models try to slowly
dissipate and advect eastward the more solid cloud cover across
eastern IA and IL tonight.  While this is possible due to at least
weak subsidence across the area, would not be surprised if this
cloud cover remains trapped under the inversion and actually
retrogrades some westward tonight as the surface/boundary layer wind
veers around to an easterly direction this evening.  If this low
level cloud cover remains through the night the MOS minimum
temperature guidance may be a little too cool across the IL counties
of our forecast area.  Lows tonight across the western portion of
the forecast area will be warmer despite less cloud cover due to
increasing low level warm air advection on the nose of a
southwesterly low level jet.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 400 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

(Wednesday-Friday)

12z guidance continues to support thinking that a strong but brief
warmup will occur tomorrow, followed by a cooling trend
that should send temps to below average levels by the end of the
work week.  Have maintained current forecast highs for Wednesday,
which is several degrees warmer than warmest GFS MAV.  In spite of
the very strong inversion that is forecast to limit mixing still
think warmer is the way to go, as guidance hasn`t been robust enough
the past few times we`ve had strong warming.  I`m also uncertain how
much cloudiness there will be; worse case for warming would be that
this afternoon`s low clouds manage to hang around in the morning,
but increasing southerly surface winds should advect them back out
of the area for the afternoon.

Cold front will sweep through the region Wednesday night, with the
resultant cold advection only allowing a minimal daytime rebound
during the day on Thursday.   I have also continued some slight
chance PoPs late Wednesday night and into Thursday morning as
shortwave drops into the mid-Mississippi Valley, but moisture
certainly looks scant at this time.

The chunk of cold air that pushes into the area on Thursday should
continue to exert its influence on Friday, with highs about a
category lower than those on Thursday.

(Saturday-Tuesday)

Over the past few days models have come into much better agreement
for this upcoming weekend, with upper low cutting off over the
southwestern U.S. while fairly active westerlies continue from the
Pacific NW, through the Mississippi Valley, into the east coast.
All medium range guidance now supports the idea that broad
overrunning will develop in the wake of the cold surface ridge on
Saturday, which should lead to at least a chance of precip over much
of the area.  However, a strong shortwave in the westerlies will add
additional large scale lift Saturday night and into Sunday, and have
upped PoPs a bit more during this time.

While precip is looking more promising, still lots of unknowns about
ptype.  850mb temps are genenerally below 0C and certainly on
Saturday evaporative cooling should try to cool the lower levels of
the AMS enough to support snow.  However, forecast soundings are
also suggesting low level temp profile will become isothermal at
around 0C on Saturday night and Sunday, which suggests ptype go be
either liquid or frozen.  I have leaned ptype a bit more towards
snow, but still kept some mention of a mix because of the above
thermal profile.

A large chunk of very cold air will drop into the region behind the
weekend system, and by the start of the new work week we will likely
be reminded that winter is certainly not over.   Have stayed with
initialization guidance for highs on Monday...generally ranging from
the lower 20s to the lower 30s.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 532 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

Main concern for the overnight hours will be on stratus in
Illinois. Dissipation has occurred over the past several hours on
the western flank mainly due to diurnal effects. Will have to
watch this area of stratus overnight as it is possible MVFR
ceilings advect back southwestward into KUIN and the St. Louis
metro TAF sites. RAP 925-950 hPa winds...albeit quite light...do
suggest this may be possible as initially northerly winds in the
aforementioned layer veer to the east and then eventually
southeast overnight tonight. Otherwise...quiet and tranquil
conditions are expected as sfc ridge of high pressure dominates
the area with winds staying light overnight. By
tomorrow/Wednesday...pressure gradient strengthens with winds
becoming more southerly at the surface with wind gusts up to
around 25 knots.


Specifics for KSTL:

Main concern for the overnight hours will be on stratus deck
currently residing just east of the terminal. Dissipation has
occurred over the past several hours on the western flank mainly
due to diurnal effects...but will have to watch this area of
stratus overnight as it is possible MVFR ceilings advect back
southwestward into Lambert Field. RAP 925-950 hPa winds...albeit quite
light...do suggest this may be possible as initially northerly
winds in the aforementioned layer veer to the east and then
eventually southeast overnight tonight. Otherwise...quiet and
tranquil conditions are expected as sfc ridge of high pressure
dominates the area with winds staying light overnight. By
tomorrow/Wednesday...pressure gradient strengthens with winds
becoming more southerly at the surface with wind gusts up to
around 25 knots.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 272338
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
538 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 400 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

Surface ridge extending from WI southwest into northern MO will
strengthen and move southeastward into the Ohio Valley region by 12Z
Wednesday.  Persistent low level cloud cover extends across eastern
IA and much of IL this afternoon with some diurnally driven
cloudiness across eastern MO.  Much of the cloud cover over eastern
MO should dissipate early this evening.  The models try to slowly
dissipate and advect eastward the more solid cloud cover across
eastern IA and IL tonight.  While this is possible due to at least
weak subsidence across the area, would not be surprised if this
cloud cover remains trapped under the inversion and actually
retrogrades some westward tonight as the surface/boundary layer wind
veers around to an easterly direction this evening.  If this low
level cloud cover remains through the night the MOS minimum
temperature guidance may be a little too cool across the IL counties
of our forecast area.  Lows tonight across the western portion of
the forecast area will be warmer despite less cloud cover due to
increasing low level warm air advection on the nose of a
southwesterly low level jet.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 400 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

(Wednesday-Friday)

12z guidance continues to support thinking that a strong but brief
warmup will occur tomorrow, followed by a cooling trend
that should send temps to below average levels by the end of the
work week.  Have maintained current forecast highs for Wednesday,
which is several degrees warmer than warmest GFS MAV.  In spite of
the very strong inversion that is forecast to limit mixing still
think warmer is the way to go, as guidance hasn`t been robust enough
the past few times we`ve had strong warming.  I`m also uncertain how
much cloudiness there will be; worse case for warming would be that
this afternoon`s low clouds manage to hang around in the morning,
but increasing southerly surface winds should advect them back out
of the area for the afternoon.

Cold front will sweep through the region Wednesday night, with the
resultant cold advection only allowing a minimal daytime rebound
during the day on Thursday.   I have also continued some slight
chance PoPs late Wednesday night and into Thursday morning as
shortwave drops into the mid-Mississippi Valley, but moisture
certainly looks scant at this time.

The chunk of cold air that pushes into the area on Thursday should
continue to exert its influence on Friday, with highs about a
category lower than those on Thursday.

(Saturday-Tuesday)

Over the past few days models have come into much better agreement
for this upcoming weekend, with upper low cutting off over the
southwestern U.S. while fairly active westerlies continue from the
Pacific NW, through the Mississippi Valley, into the east coast.
All medium range guidance now supports the idea that broad
overrunning will develop in the wake of the cold surface ridge on
Saturday, which should lead to at least a chance of precip over much
of the area.  However, a strong shortwave in the westerlies will add
additional large scale lift Saturday night and into Sunday, and have
upped PoPs a bit more during this time.

While precip is looking more promising, still lots of unknowns about
ptype.  850mb temps are genenerally below 0C and certainly on
Saturday evaporative cooling should try to cool the lower levels of
the AMS enough to support snow.  However, forecast soundings are
also suggesting low level temp profile will become isothermal at
around 0C on Saturday night and Sunday, which suggests ptype go be
either liquid or frozen.  I have leaned ptype a bit more towards
snow, but still kept some mention of a mix because of the above
thermal profile.

A large chunk of very cold air will drop into the region behind the
weekend system, and by the start of the new work week we will likely
be reminded that winter is certainly not over.   Have stayed with
initialization guidance for highs on Monday...generally ranging from
the lower 20s to the lower 30s.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 532 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

Main concern for the overnight hours will be on stratus in
Illinois. Dissipation has occurred over the past several hours on
the western flank mainly due to diurnal effects. Will have to
watch this area of stratus overnight as it is possible MVFR
ceilings advect back southwestward into KUIN and the St. Louis
metro TAF sites. RAP 925-950 hPa winds...albeit quite light...do
suggest this may be possible as initially northerly winds in the
aforementioned layer veer to the east and then eventually
southeast overnight tonight. Otherwise...quiet and tranquil
conditions are expected as sfc ridge of high pressure dominates
the area with winds staying light overnight. By
tomorrow/Wednesday...pressure gradient strengthens with winds
becoming more southerly at the surface with wind gusts up to
around 25 knots.


Specifics for KSTL:

Main concern for the overnight hours will be on stratus deck
currently residing just east of the terminal. Dissipation has
occurred over the past several hours on the western flank mainly
due to diurnal effects...but will have to watch this area of
stratus overnight as it is possible MVFR ceilings advect back
southwestward into Lambert Field. RAP 925-950 hPa winds...albeit quite
light...do suggest this may be possible as initially northerly
winds in the aforementioned layer veer to the east and then
eventually southeast overnight tonight. Otherwise...quiet and
tranquil conditions are expected as sfc ridge of high pressure
dominates the area with winds staying light overnight. By
tomorrow/Wednesday...pressure gradient strengthens with winds
becoming more southerly at the surface with wind gusts up to
around 25 knots.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 272310
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
510 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 341 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

In the short term, the main story will be temperatures as a surface
low slides eastward across the MO/IA border and a series of two
shortwave troughs push into the Great Lakes region, enhancing
southerly flow tomorrow and then pushing a surface cold front
through by Thursday morning.

High temperatures tomorrow afternoon will reach the upper 60s to
perhaps lower 70s in southwestern portions of the forecast area, as
a result of 850 mb temperatures in the +12 to +15 range and mixing
to nearly that level as south southwesterly low-level winds
increase. Mainly clear skies during much of the day will also
promote heating, and a dry-ish boundary layer should prevent any
afternoon cu development, especially across the western half of the
forecast area.

The cold front will slide through the CWA between 05z-09z Thursday,
resulting in steadily decreasing temperatures during the morning.
Some recovery into the mid 40s is expected as associated cloud cover
shifts eastward during the afternoon, but cold air advection will
still keep highs much cooler than Wednesday`s near record warmth.
Measurable precipitation with this system is expected to remain to
the north and east of the forecast area due to generally low deep
moisture availability, although light drizzle or a few sprinkles
aren`t out of the question for far northeast MO early Thursday
morning where shallow low-level saturation is a bit more prevalent.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Friday - Friday night...

Shortwave ridging aloft will dampen as it shifts east into the
Southern Plains as an upper system closes off over southwestern U.S.
and northwest Mexico. Surface high from MN through MO will retreat
east as weak warm advection begins to spread east. However, overall
effect on sensible weather is nil and expect to see near seasonal
temperatures.

Saturday - Sunday night...

While the medium range models, especially the ECMWF and GFS, are
converging on a solution which brings an increasing chance for
precipitation over the CWA, snow and how much are less certain. Once
the upper system moves inland it will be better sampled and the
forecast confidence will improve. That being said it appears the
upper low which closes off over AZ will not phase with the northern
stream shortwave trough that sharpens as it dives southeast through
NE/IA/MO.

Based on the above scenario would expect to see an initial batch of
warm advection/isentropically induced precipitation spread across
the CWA on Saturday. Inspection of the GFS and lower resolution
ECMWF sounding profiles shows top-down saturation but with an above
freezing near-surface layer. The primary question is whether or not
cold air will be in place prior to the onset of precipitation. With
a southerly boundary layer and no cooling aloft have to lean more
towards rain or rain/snow mix until Saturday night when colder air
arrives with the northern streams attendant cold front. Too early
plus low confidence to consider snow amounts this far out. Do think
better chance for accumulating snow is over northern and eastern
counties of the CWA. Back edge of deformation cloud shield should
harbor all snow and will clear from west to east quickly.

Monday - Tuesday...

Strong subsidence and arrival of arctic airmass allows us to lower
temperatures both days and even then we may be too conservative.
Fast northwest flow could easily hide a weak impulse or two which
could generate light snow by Tuesday....if not earlier. For now will
leave forecast dry with much below average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 508 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR conditions expected to continue through the TAF period. Main
feature will be the winds as they veer through the overnight period,
while becoming gusty out of the south by mid-morning on Wednesday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 272310
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
510 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 341 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

In the short term, the main story will be temperatures as a surface
low slides eastward across the MO/IA border and a series of two
shortwave troughs push into the Great Lakes region, enhancing
southerly flow tomorrow and then pushing a surface cold front
through by Thursday morning.

High temperatures tomorrow afternoon will reach the upper 60s to
perhaps lower 70s in southwestern portions of the forecast area, as
a result of 850 mb temperatures in the +12 to +15 range and mixing
to nearly that level as south southwesterly low-level winds
increase. Mainly clear skies during much of the day will also
promote heating, and a dry-ish boundary layer should prevent any
afternoon cu development, especially across the western half of the
forecast area.

The cold front will slide through the CWA between 05z-09z Thursday,
resulting in steadily decreasing temperatures during the morning.
Some recovery into the mid 40s is expected as associated cloud cover
shifts eastward during the afternoon, but cold air advection will
still keep highs much cooler than Wednesday`s near record warmth.
Measurable precipitation with this system is expected to remain to
the north and east of the forecast area due to generally low deep
moisture availability, although light drizzle or a few sprinkles
aren`t out of the question for far northeast MO early Thursday
morning where shallow low-level saturation is a bit more prevalent.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Friday - Friday night...

Shortwave ridging aloft will dampen as it shifts east into the
Southern Plains as an upper system closes off over southwestern U.S.
and northwest Mexico. Surface high from MN through MO will retreat
east as weak warm advection begins to spread east. However, overall
effect on sensible weather is nil and expect to see near seasonal
temperatures.

Saturday - Sunday night...

While the medium range models, especially the ECMWF and GFS, are
converging on a solution which brings an increasing chance for
precipitation over the CWA, snow and how much are less certain. Once
the upper system moves inland it will be better sampled and the
forecast confidence will improve. That being said it appears the
upper low which closes off over AZ will not phase with the northern
stream shortwave trough that sharpens as it dives southeast through
NE/IA/MO.

Based on the above scenario would expect to see an initial batch of
warm advection/isentropically induced precipitation spread across
the CWA on Saturday. Inspection of the GFS and lower resolution
ECMWF sounding profiles shows top-down saturation but with an above
freezing near-surface layer. The primary question is whether or not
cold air will be in place prior to the onset of precipitation. With
a southerly boundary layer and no cooling aloft have to lean more
towards rain or rain/snow mix until Saturday night when colder air
arrives with the northern streams attendant cold front. Too early
plus low confidence to consider snow amounts this far out. Do think
better chance for accumulating snow is over northern and eastern
counties of the CWA. Back edge of deformation cloud shield should
harbor all snow and will clear from west to east quickly.

Monday - Tuesday...

Strong subsidence and arrival of arctic airmass allows us to lower
temperatures both days and even then we may be too conservative.
Fast northwest flow could easily hide a weak impulse or two which
could generate light snow by Tuesday....if not earlier. For now will
leave forecast dry with much below average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 508 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR conditions expected to continue through the TAF period. Main
feature will be the winds as they veer through the overnight period,
while becoming gusty out of the south by mid-morning on Wednesday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KLSX 272200
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
400 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 400 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

Surface ridge extending from WI southwest into northern MO will
strengthen and move southeastward into the Ohio Valley region by 12Z
Wednesday.  Persistent low level cloud cover extends across eastern
IA and much of IL this afternoon with some diurnally driven
cloudiness across eastern MO.  Much of the cloud cover over eastern
MO should dissipate early this evening.  The models try to slowly
dissipate and advect eastward the more solid cloud cover across
eastern IA and IL tonight.  While this is possible due to at least
weak subsidence across the area, would not be surprised if this
cloud cover remains trapped under the inversion and actually
retrogrades some westward tonight as the surface/boundary layer wind
veers around to an easterly direction this evening.  If this low
level cloud cover remains through the night the MOS minimum
temperature guidance may be a little too cool across the IL counties
of our forecast area.  Lows tonight across the western portion of
the forecast area will be warmer despite less cloud cover due to
increasing low level warm air advection on the nose of a
southwesterly low level jet.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 400 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

(Wednesday-Friday)

12z guidance continues to support thinking that a strong but brief
warmup will occur tomorrow, followed by a cooling trend
that should send temps to below average levels by the end of the
work week.  Have maintained current forecast highs for Wednesday,
which is several degrees warmer than warmest GFS MAV.  In spite of
the very strong inversion that is forecast to limit mixing still
think warmer is the way to go, as guidance hasn`t been robust enough
the past few times we`ve had strong warming.  I`m also uncertain how
much cloudiness there will be; worse case for warming would be that
this afternoon`s low clouds manage to hang around in the morning,
but increasing southerly surface winds should advect them back out
of the area for the afternoon.

Cold front will sweep through the region Wednesday night, with the
resultant cold advection only allowing a minimal daytime rebound
during the day on Thursday.   I have also continued some slight
chance PoPs late Wednesday night and into Thursday morning as
shortwave drops into the mid-Mississippi Valley, but moisture
certainly looks scant at this time.

The chunk of cold air that pushes into the area on Thursday should
continue to exert its influence on Friday, with highs about a
category lower than those on Thursday.

(Saturday-Tuesday)

Over the past few days models have come into much better agreement
for this upcoming weekend, with upper low cutting off over the
southwestern U.S. while fairly active westerlies continue from the
Pacific NW, through the Mississippi Valley, into the east coast.
All medium range guidance now supports the idea that broad
overrunning will develop in the wake of the cold surface ridge on
Saturday, which should lead to at least a chance of precip over much
of the area.  However, a strong shortwave in the westerlies will add
additional large scale lift Saturday night and into Sunday, and have
upped PoPs a bit more during this time.

While precip is looking more promising, still lots of unknowns about
ptype.  850mb temps are genenerally below 0C and certainly on
Saturday evaporative cooling should try to cool the lower levels of
the AMS enough to support snow.  However, forecast soundings are
also suggesting low level temp profile will become isothermal at
around 0C on Saturday night and Sunday, which suggests ptype go be
either liquid or frozen.  I have leaned ptype a bit more towards
snow, but still kept some mention of a mix because of the above
thermal profile.

A large chunk of very cold air will drop into the region behind the
weekend system, and by the start of the new work week we will likely
be reminded that winter is certainly not over.   Have stayed with
initialization guidance for highs on Monday...generally ranging from
the lower 20s to the lower 30s.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1032 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

Low level, MVFR cloudiness across eastern IA and much of IL still
advecting southwestward late this morning. There has also been
some diurnal development of cumulus or stratocumulus clouds
further southwest which were impacting STL and CPS. This diurnal
development will likely continue this afternoon despite some
subsidence across the area, so will need at least a tempo group in
UIN and the St Louis metro area tafs for MVFR cigs at times.
Surface winds will gradually veer around to a nely direction this
afternoon, and then to an ely direction this evening due to surface
ridging strengthening across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
regions tonight. As these winds take on a more e-nely component it
may cause the low level cloud cover to advect back into UIN and
the St Louis metro area late this afternoon or this evening. For
now make keep prevailing conditions VFR during this time period,
but will need to keep a close eye on satellite trends. Sely
surface winds will strengthen late tonight and Wednesday morning
as the surface pressure gradient tightens due to developing low
pressure over the northern Plains.

Specifics for KSTL: MVFR clouds have develped over STL and may
continue for much of the afternoon. The more solid cloud cover
east and north of STL may also try to advect back into STL late
this afternoon and this evening. For now may keep cloud conditions
scattered tonight, but would not be surprised if it goes MVFR again
for at least part of the night. The nly surface wind will
gradually weaken and veer around to a nely direction late this
afternoon, and to an ely direction by late evening. The wind will
intensify again Wednesday morning from a sely direction.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 272200
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
400 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 400 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

Surface ridge extending from WI southwest into northern MO will
strengthen and move southeastward into the Ohio Valley region by 12Z
Wednesday.  Persistent low level cloud cover extends across eastern
IA and much of IL this afternoon with some diurnally driven
cloudiness across eastern MO.  Much of the cloud cover over eastern
MO should dissipate early this evening.  The models try to slowly
dissipate and advect eastward the more solid cloud cover across
eastern IA and IL tonight.  While this is possible due to at least
weak subsidence across the area, would not be surprised if this
cloud cover remains trapped under the inversion and actually
retrogrades some westward tonight as the surface/boundary layer wind
veers around to an easterly direction this evening.  If this low
level cloud cover remains through the night the MOS minimum
temperature guidance may be a little too cool across the IL counties
of our forecast area.  Lows tonight across the western portion of
the forecast area will be warmer despite less cloud cover due to
increasing low level warm air advection on the nose of a
southwesterly low level jet.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 400 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

(Wednesday-Friday)

12z guidance continues to support thinking that a strong but brief
warmup will occur tomorrow, followed by a cooling trend
that should send temps to below average levels by the end of the
work week.  Have maintained current forecast highs for Wednesday,
which is several degrees warmer than warmest GFS MAV.  In spite of
the very strong inversion that is forecast to limit mixing still
think warmer is the way to go, as guidance hasn`t been robust enough
the past few times we`ve had strong warming.  I`m also uncertain how
much cloudiness there will be; worse case for warming would be that
this afternoon`s low clouds manage to hang around in the morning,
but increasing southerly surface winds should advect them back out
of the area for the afternoon.

Cold front will sweep through the region Wednesday night, with the
resultant cold advection only allowing a minimal daytime rebound
during the day on Thursday.   I have also continued some slight
chance PoPs late Wednesday night and into Thursday morning as
shortwave drops into the mid-Mississippi Valley, but moisture
certainly looks scant at this time.

The chunk of cold air that pushes into the area on Thursday should
continue to exert its influence on Friday, with highs about a
category lower than those on Thursday.

(Saturday-Tuesday)

Over the past few days models have come into much better agreement
for this upcoming weekend, with upper low cutting off over the
southwestern U.S. while fairly active westerlies continue from the
Pacific NW, through the Mississippi Valley, into the east coast.
All medium range guidance now supports the idea that broad
overrunning will develop in the wake of the cold surface ridge on
Saturday, which should lead to at least a chance of precip over much
of the area.  However, a strong shortwave in the westerlies will add
additional large scale lift Saturday night and into Sunday, and have
upped PoPs a bit more during this time.

While precip is looking more promising, still lots of unknowns about
ptype.  850mb temps are genenerally below 0C and certainly on
Saturday evaporative cooling should try to cool the lower levels of
the AMS enough to support snow.  However, forecast soundings are
also suggesting low level temp profile will become isothermal at
around 0C on Saturday night and Sunday, which suggests ptype go be
either liquid or frozen.  I have leaned ptype a bit more towards
snow, but still kept some mention of a mix because of the above
thermal profile.

A large chunk of very cold air will drop into the region behind the
weekend system, and by the start of the new work week we will likely
be reminded that winter is certainly not over.   Have stayed with
initialization guidance for highs on Monday...generally ranging from
the lower 20s to the lower 30s.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1032 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

Low level, MVFR cloudiness across eastern IA and much of IL still
advecting southwestward late this morning. There has also been
some diurnal development of cumulus or stratocumulus clouds
further southwest which were impacting STL and CPS. This diurnal
development will likely continue this afternoon despite some
subsidence across the area, so will need at least a tempo group in
UIN and the St Louis metro area tafs for MVFR cigs at times.
Surface winds will gradually veer around to a nely direction this
afternoon, and then to an ely direction this evening due to surface
ridging strengthening across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
regions tonight. As these winds take on a more e-nely component it
may cause the low level cloud cover to advect back into UIN and
the St Louis metro area late this afternoon or this evening. For
now make keep prevailing conditions VFR during this time period,
but will need to keep a close eye on satellite trends. Sely
surface winds will strengthen late tonight and Wednesday morning
as the surface pressure gradient tightens due to developing low
pressure over the northern Plains.

Specifics for KSTL: MVFR clouds have develped over STL and may
continue for much of the afternoon. The more solid cloud cover
east and north of STL may also try to advect back into STL late
this afternoon and this evening. For now may keep cloud conditions
scattered tonight, but would not be surprised if it goes MVFR again
for at least part of the night. The nly surface wind will
gradually weaken and veer around to a nely direction late this
afternoon, and to an ely direction by late evening. The wind will
intensify again Wednesday morning from a sely direction.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 272141
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
341 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 341 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

In the short term, the main story will be temperatures as a surface
low slides eastward across the MO/IA border and a series of two
shortwave troughs push into the Great Lakes region, enhancing
southerly flow tomorrow and then pushing a surface cold front
through by Thursday morning.

High temperatures tomorrow afternoon will reach the upper 60s to
perhaps lower 70s in southwestern portions of the forecast area, as
a result of 850 mb temperatures in the +12 to +15 range and mixing
to nearly that level as south southwesterly low-level winds
increase. Mainly clear skies during much of the day will also
promote heating, and a dry-ish boundary layer should prevent any
afternoon cu development, especially across the western half of the
forecast area.

The cold front will slide through the CWA between 05z-09z Thursday,
resulting in steadily decreasing temperatures during the morning.
Some recovery into the mid 40s is expected as associated cloud cover
shifts eastward during the afternoon, but cold air advection will
still keep highs much cooler than Wednesday`s near record warmth.
Measurable precipitation with this system is expected to remain to
the north and east of the forecast area due to generally low deep
moisture availability, although light drizzle or a few sprinkles
aren`t out of the question for far northeast MO early Thursday
morning where shallow low-level saturation is a bit more prevalent.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Friday - Friday night...

Shortwave ridging aloft will dampen as it shifts east into the
Southern Plains as an upper system closes off over southwestern U.S.
and northwest Mexico. Surface high from MN through MO will retreat
east as weak warm advection begins to spread east. However, overall
effect on sensible weather is nil and expect to see near seasonal
temperatures.

Saturday - Sunday night...

While the medium range models, especially the ECMWF and GFS, are
converging on a solution which brings an increasing chance for
precipitation over the CWA, snow and how much are less certain. Once
the upper system moves inland it will be better sampled and the
forecast confidence will improve. That being said it appears the
upper low which closes off over AZ will not phase with the northern
stream shortwave trough that sharpens as it dives southeast through
NE/IA/MO.

Based on the above scenario would expect to see an initial batch of
warm advection/isentropically induced precipitation spread across
the CWA on Saturday. Inspection of the GFS and lower resolution
ECMWF sounding profiles shows top-down saturation but with an above
freezing near-surface layer. The primary question is whether or not
cold air will be in place prior to the onset of precipitation. With
a southerly boundary layer and no cooling aloft have to lean more
towards rain or rain/snow mix until Saturday night when colder air
arrives with the northern streams attendant cold front. Too early
plus low confidence to consider snow amounts this far out. Do think
better chance for accumulating snow is over northern and eastern
counties of the CWA. Back edge of deformation cloud shield should
harbor all snow and will clear from west to east quickly.

Monday - Tuesday...

Strong subsidence and arrival of arctic airmass allows us to lower
temperatures both days and even then we may be too conservative.
Fast northwest flow could easily hide a weak impulse or two which
could generate light snow by Tuesday....if not earlier. For now will
leave forecast dry with much below average temperatures.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period.
Winds will gradually turn to the southeast this afternoon and evening
at speeds below 10 kts, then will veer to the south southwest and
increase to 15 kts or greater, with gusts up to 25 kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 272141
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
341 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 341 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

In the short term, the main story will be temperatures as a surface
low slides eastward across the MO/IA border and a series of two
shortwave troughs push into the Great Lakes region, enhancing
southerly flow tomorrow and then pushing a surface cold front
through by Thursday morning.

High temperatures tomorrow afternoon will reach the upper 60s to
perhaps lower 70s in southwestern portions of the forecast area, as
a result of 850 mb temperatures in the +12 to +15 range and mixing
to nearly that level as south southwesterly low-level winds
increase. Mainly clear skies during much of the day will also
promote heating, and a dry-ish boundary layer should prevent any
afternoon cu development, especially across the western half of the
forecast area.

The cold front will slide through the CWA between 05z-09z Thursday,
resulting in steadily decreasing temperatures during the morning.
Some recovery into the mid 40s is expected as associated cloud cover
shifts eastward during the afternoon, but cold air advection will
still keep highs much cooler than Wednesday`s near record warmth.
Measurable precipitation with this system is expected to remain to
the north and east of the forecast area due to generally low deep
moisture availability, although light drizzle or a few sprinkles
aren`t out of the question for far northeast MO early Thursday
morning where shallow low-level saturation is a bit more prevalent.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Friday - Friday night...

Shortwave ridging aloft will dampen as it shifts east into the
Southern Plains as an upper system closes off over southwestern U.S.
and northwest Mexico. Surface high from MN through MO will retreat
east as weak warm advection begins to spread east. However, overall
effect on sensible weather is nil and expect to see near seasonal
temperatures.

Saturday - Sunday night...

While the medium range models, especially the ECMWF and GFS, are
converging on a solution which brings an increasing chance for
precipitation over the CWA, snow and how much are less certain. Once
the upper system moves inland it will be better sampled and the
forecast confidence will improve. That being said it appears the
upper low which closes off over AZ will not phase with the northern
stream shortwave trough that sharpens as it dives southeast through
NE/IA/MO.

Based on the above scenario would expect to see an initial batch of
warm advection/isentropically induced precipitation spread across
the CWA on Saturday. Inspection of the GFS and lower resolution
ECMWF sounding profiles shows top-down saturation but with an above
freezing near-surface layer. The primary question is whether or not
cold air will be in place prior to the onset of precipitation. With
a southerly boundary layer and no cooling aloft have to lean more
towards rain or rain/snow mix until Saturday night when colder air
arrives with the northern streams attendant cold front. Too early
plus low confidence to consider snow amounts this far out. Do think
better chance for accumulating snow is over northern and eastern
counties of the CWA. Back edge of deformation cloud shield should
harbor all snow and will clear from west to east quickly.

Monday - Tuesday...

Strong subsidence and arrival of arctic airmass allows us to lower
temperatures both days and even then we may be too conservative.
Fast northwest flow could easily hide a weak impulse or two which
could generate light snow by Tuesday....if not earlier. For now will
leave forecast dry with much below average temperatures.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period.
Winds will gradually turn to the southeast this afternoon and evening
at speeds below 10 kts, then will veer to the south southwest and
increase to 15 kts or greater, with gusts up to 25 kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 272141
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
341 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 341 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

In the short term, the main story will be temperatures as a surface
low slides eastward across the MO/IA border and a series of two
shortwave troughs push into the Great Lakes region, enhancing
southerly flow tomorrow and then pushing a surface cold front
through by Thursday morning.

High temperatures tomorrow afternoon will reach the upper 60s to
perhaps lower 70s in southwestern portions of the forecast area, as
a result of 850 mb temperatures in the +12 to +15 range and mixing
to nearly that level as south southwesterly low-level winds
increase. Mainly clear skies during much of the day will also
promote heating, and a dry-ish boundary layer should prevent any
afternoon cu development, especially across the western half of the
forecast area.

The cold front will slide through the CWA between 05z-09z Thursday,
resulting in steadily decreasing temperatures during the morning.
Some recovery into the mid 40s is expected as associated cloud cover
shifts eastward during the afternoon, but cold air advection will
still keep highs much cooler than Wednesday`s near record warmth.
Measurable precipitation with this system is expected to remain to
the north and east of the forecast area due to generally low deep
moisture availability, although light drizzle or a few sprinkles
aren`t out of the question for far northeast MO early Thursday
morning where shallow low-level saturation is a bit more prevalent.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Friday - Friday night...

Shortwave ridging aloft will dampen as it shifts east into the
Southern Plains as an upper system closes off over southwestern U.S.
and northwest Mexico. Surface high from MN through MO will retreat
east as weak warm advection begins to spread east. However, overall
effect on sensible weather is nil and expect to see near seasonal
temperatures.

Saturday - Sunday night...

While the medium range models, especially the ECMWF and GFS, are
converging on a solution which brings an increasing chance for
precipitation over the CWA, snow and how much are less certain. Once
the upper system moves inland it will be better sampled and the
forecast confidence will improve. That being said it appears the
upper low which closes off over AZ will not phase with the northern
stream shortwave trough that sharpens as it dives southeast through
NE/IA/MO.

Based on the above scenario would expect to see an initial batch of
warm advection/isentropically induced precipitation spread across
the CWA on Saturday. Inspection of the GFS and lower resolution
ECMWF sounding profiles shows top-down saturation but with an above
freezing near-surface layer. The primary question is whether or not
cold air will be in place prior to the onset of precipitation. With
a southerly boundary layer and no cooling aloft have to lean more
towards rain or rain/snow mix until Saturday night when colder air
arrives with the northern streams attendant cold front. Too early
plus low confidence to consider snow amounts this far out. Do think
better chance for accumulating snow is over northern and eastern
counties of the CWA. Back edge of deformation cloud shield should
harbor all snow and will clear from west to east quickly.

Monday - Tuesday...

Strong subsidence and arrival of arctic airmass allows us to lower
temperatures both days and even then we may be too conservative.
Fast northwest flow could easily hide a weak impulse or two which
could generate light snow by Tuesday....if not earlier. For now will
leave forecast dry with much below average temperatures.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period.
Winds will gradually turn to the southeast this afternoon and evening
at speeds below 10 kts, then will veer to the south southwest and
increase to 15 kts or greater, with gusts up to 25 kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 272141
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
341 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 341 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

In the short term, the main story will be temperatures as a surface
low slides eastward across the MO/IA border and a series of two
shortwave troughs push into the Great Lakes region, enhancing
southerly flow tomorrow and then pushing a surface cold front
through by Thursday morning.

High temperatures tomorrow afternoon will reach the upper 60s to
perhaps lower 70s in southwestern portions of the forecast area, as
a result of 850 mb temperatures in the +12 to +15 range and mixing
to nearly that level as south southwesterly low-level winds
increase. Mainly clear skies during much of the day will also
promote heating, and a dry-ish boundary layer should prevent any
afternoon cu development, especially across the western half of the
forecast area.

The cold front will slide through the CWA between 05z-09z Thursday,
resulting in steadily decreasing temperatures during the morning.
Some recovery into the mid 40s is expected as associated cloud cover
shifts eastward during the afternoon, but cold air advection will
still keep highs much cooler than Wednesday`s near record warmth.
Measurable precipitation with this system is expected to remain to
the north and east of the forecast area due to generally low deep
moisture availability, although light drizzle or a few sprinkles
aren`t out of the question for far northeast MO early Thursday
morning where shallow low-level saturation is a bit more prevalent.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Friday - Friday night...

Shortwave ridging aloft will dampen as it shifts east into the
Southern Plains as an upper system closes off over southwestern U.S.
and northwest Mexico. Surface high from MN through MO will retreat
east as weak warm advection begins to spread east. However, overall
effect on sensible weather is nil and expect to see near seasonal
temperatures.

Saturday - Sunday night...

While the medium range models, especially the ECMWF and GFS, are
converging on a solution which brings an increasing chance for
precipitation over the CWA, snow and how much are less certain. Once
the upper system moves inland it will be better sampled and the
forecast confidence will improve. That being said it appears the
upper low which closes off over AZ will not phase with the northern
stream shortwave trough that sharpens as it dives southeast through
NE/IA/MO.

Based on the above scenario would expect to see an initial batch of
warm advection/isentropically induced precipitation spread across
the CWA on Saturday. Inspection of the GFS and lower resolution
ECMWF sounding profiles shows top-down saturation but with an above
freezing near-surface layer. The primary question is whether or not
cold air will be in place prior to the onset of precipitation. With
a southerly boundary layer and no cooling aloft have to lean more
towards rain or rain/snow mix until Saturday night when colder air
arrives with the northern streams attendant cold front. Too early
plus low confidence to consider snow amounts this far out. Do think
better chance for accumulating snow is over northern and eastern
counties of the CWA. Back edge of deformation cloud shield should
harbor all snow and will clear from west to east quickly.

Monday - Tuesday...

Strong subsidence and arrival of arctic airmass allows us to lower
temperatures both days and even then we may be too conservative.
Fast northwest flow could easily hide a weak impulse or two which
could generate light snow by Tuesday....if not earlier. For now will
leave forecast dry with much below average temperatures.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period.
Winds will gradually turn to the southeast this afternoon and evening
at speeds below 10 kts, then will veer to the south southwest and
increase to 15 kts or greater, with gusts up to 25 kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KSGF 272050
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
250 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Quiet and mild weather expected through this period. Surface high
pushes east of the forecast area tonight as shortwave trough begins
to drop through the central plains. As this occurs surface pressure
gradient begins to tighten as low level warm advection increases.
With dry atmosphere expect little in the way of clouds. Biggest
sensible weather will be warm temperatures Wednesday along with
strengthening winds. Model guidance trend has been upward with
regards to afternoon highs, especially in the western areas and thus
trended slightly warmer than previous forecast. Will likely see
readings in the lower 70s across southeast Kansas and far western
Missouri...with mid and upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks. As for
winds expect them to remain below advisory criteria...but will
likely see gusts to 30 to 35 mph...especially in areas west of
Interstate 49.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Aforementioned shortwave trough will remain north of the area
Wednesday night...but will drag a cold front across the area late
Wednesday night into the early morning hours of Thursday. Outside of
just some clouds, precipitation will remain well north and east of
the area. However, temperatures will fall back to seasonable normals
for both Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds back in from
the northern Plains.

Attention then turns to eastward progression of a 500mb southwest
conus low and is associated surface reflection. Medium range models
have trended a little slower with the precipitation shield, with the
12Z GEM keeping Friday night dry and and the 12Z GFS pushing it to
the Kansas/Missouri border by 12Z. Models still indicating that bulk
of precipitation will fall Saturday night which becomes more
problematic in terms of precipitation type. Broad low level warm
advection ahead of the system expected to keep temperatures up on
Saturday. Still enough model differences in the low level thermal
profiles to add much specificity to the grids, but the highest
probability for any accumulating snow would be Saturday night. For
now will continue the rain and snow for the grids. Precipitation
looks to end Sunday with high pressure then settling in Monday and
Tuesday for quiet but seasonable weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours, with the
only aviation weather concern LLWS tonight and gusty surface winds
tomorrow. The pressure gradient will increase late tonight across
the region, with LLWS developing as a low level jet develops.
Those stronger winds will then mix down to the surface starting
early to mid morning tomorrow, with southerly surface winds/gusts
increasing into the afternoon.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Boxell






000
FXUS63 KSGF 272050
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
250 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Quiet and mild weather expected through this period. Surface high
pushes east of the forecast area tonight as shortwave trough begins
to drop through the central plains. As this occurs surface pressure
gradient begins to tighten as low level warm advection increases.
With dry atmosphere expect little in the way of clouds. Biggest
sensible weather will be warm temperatures Wednesday along with
strengthening winds. Model guidance trend has been upward with
regards to afternoon highs, especially in the western areas and thus
trended slightly warmer than previous forecast. Will likely see
readings in the lower 70s across southeast Kansas and far western
Missouri...with mid and upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks. As for
winds expect them to remain below advisory criteria...but will
likely see gusts to 30 to 35 mph...especially in areas west of
Interstate 49.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Aforementioned shortwave trough will remain north of the area
Wednesday night...but will drag a cold front across the area late
Wednesday night into the early morning hours of Thursday. Outside of
just some clouds, precipitation will remain well north and east of
the area. However, temperatures will fall back to seasonable normals
for both Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds back in from
the northern Plains.

Attention then turns to eastward progression of a 500mb southwest
conus low and is associated surface reflection. Medium range models
have trended a little slower with the precipitation shield, with the
12Z GEM keeping Friday night dry and and the 12Z GFS pushing it to
the Kansas/Missouri border by 12Z. Models still indicating that bulk
of precipitation will fall Saturday night which becomes more
problematic in terms of precipitation type. Broad low level warm
advection ahead of the system expected to keep temperatures up on
Saturday. Still enough model differences in the low level thermal
profiles to add much specificity to the grids, but the highest
probability for any accumulating snow would be Saturday night. For
now will continue the rain and snow for the grids. Precipitation
looks to end Sunday with high pressure then settling in Monday and
Tuesday for quiet but seasonable weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours, with the
only aviation weather concern LLWS tonight and gusty surface winds
tomorrow. The pressure gradient will increase late tonight across
the region, with LLWS developing as a low level jet develops.
Those stronger winds will then mix down to the surface starting
early to mid morning tomorrow, with southerly surface winds/gusts
increasing into the afternoon.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Boxell







000
FXUS63 KSGF 271734
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1134 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

...18Z Aviation Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 223 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Weak high pressure was over the area early this morning with a
highly amplified upper level pattern across the CONUS. Missouri
is currently in between the deep low affecting the northeast with
an intense Winter storm and a high amplitude ridge from the
southern Plains into the northern Rockies.

The short term forecast will be affected by this ridge shifting
eastward over the next couple of days bringing well above normal
temperatures to the region. This will be the main focus in the
short term.

A storm system will enter the west coast late in the week and will
affect the area this weekend with increasing precipitation
chances...possibly of the Wintry type. This will be the main focus
in the long term.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 223 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Upper level ridge will continue to shift eastward today and into
the Plains as surface high shifts east across the region. Will see
some low level warm advection, but this really kicks into gear
tonight into Wednesday ahead of an upper level shortwave tracking
into the Plains. This will send a cold front towards the region,
but will not push through the area until Wednesday night. Out
ahead of the front, especially on Wednesday, gusty south winds are
expected with strong southwest flow at 850 mb. MOS numbers seem a
bit low and have adjusted temperatures up slightly both
today/Wednesday from MOS numbers.

Front will push through on Wednesday night, however most of the
precipitation will be concentrated closer to the low which will be
well to the northeast of us.  Will keep things dry for now.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 223 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Main effect of the front will be the sharp cooldown from what we
will experience Today/Wednesday. Cold air will move back into the
area on Thursday with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s and 30s
for the rest of the week into the weekend.

A storm system will move across the southern Rockies and Plains
late in the week into the weekend, bringing a surface low to our
south Saturday night into Sunday. Both ECMWF/GFS show this, but
differ slightly on thermal profiles which would have implications
on precipitation type over the weekend. ECMWF is more bullish on
snow. For now will go with rain/snow in grids and products.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours, with the
only aviation weather concern LLWS tonight and gusty surface winds
tomorrow. The pressure gradient will increase late tonight across
the region, with LLWS developing as a low level jet develops.
Those stronger winds will then mix down to the surface starting
early to mid morning tomorrow, with southerly surface winds/gusts
increasing into the afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell







000
FXUS63 KSGF 271734
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1134 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

...18Z Aviation Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 223 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Weak high pressure was over the area early this morning with a
highly amplified upper level pattern across the CONUS. Missouri
is currently in between the deep low affecting the northeast with
an intense Winter storm and a high amplitude ridge from the
southern Plains into the northern Rockies.

The short term forecast will be affected by this ridge shifting
eastward over the next couple of days bringing well above normal
temperatures to the region. This will be the main focus in the
short term.

A storm system will enter the west coast late in the week and will
affect the area this weekend with increasing precipitation
chances...possibly of the Wintry type. This will be the main focus
in the long term.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 223 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Upper level ridge will continue to shift eastward today and into
the Plains as surface high shifts east across the region. Will see
some low level warm advection, but this really kicks into gear
tonight into Wednesday ahead of an upper level shortwave tracking
into the Plains. This will send a cold front towards the region,
but will not push through the area until Wednesday night. Out
ahead of the front, especially on Wednesday, gusty south winds are
expected with strong southwest flow at 850 mb. MOS numbers seem a
bit low and have adjusted temperatures up slightly both
today/Wednesday from MOS numbers.

Front will push through on Wednesday night, however most of the
precipitation will be concentrated closer to the low which will be
well to the northeast of us.  Will keep things dry for now.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 223 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Main effect of the front will be the sharp cooldown from what we
will experience Today/Wednesday. Cold air will move back into the
area on Thursday with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s and 30s
for the rest of the week into the weekend.

A storm system will move across the southern Rockies and Plains
late in the week into the weekend, bringing a surface low to our
south Saturday night into Sunday. Both ECMWF/GFS show this, but
differ slightly on thermal profiles which would have implications
on precipitation type over the weekend. ECMWF is more bullish on
snow. For now will go with rain/snow in grids and products.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours, with the
only aviation weather concern LLWS tonight and gusty surface winds
tomorrow. The pressure gradient will increase late tonight across
the region, with LLWS developing as a low level jet develops.
Those stronger winds will then mix down to the surface starting
early to mid morning tomorrow, with southerly surface winds/gusts
increasing into the afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell






000
FXUS63 KEAX 271729
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1129 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

This forecast package will be characterized by dry conditions and
(perhaps record) warm temperatures in the short term. That will be
followed by a return to near normal temperatures for the end of the
week. Finally, there is the potential for a weekend winter snow
storm possible before clearing into the beginning of next week.

A ridge of high pressure over the Plains early this morning
will shift east into the area today. This will allow for sunny skies
but weak mixing to only about 925mb where temperatures range from
2C-6C. This will highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Tonight, the
surface ridge will slide east of the area. A shortwave will begin to
round an upper level ridge over the Rockies forcing a cold front
into the Plains States. This, in turn, will tighten the pressure
gradient across the area as winds pick up from the south. This will
keep lows in the 30s. Wednesday, the upper level ridge moves into
the region while at the surface continued WAA will be ongoing out
ahead of the cold front moving slowly across the Plains. 850 temps
of 12C-16C should yield highs in the upper 50s to near 70 across
west central Missouri and east central Kansas. The current record
high for the day is 65 set in 1917 at MCI where 67 is currently
being forecast. Wednesday night the aforementioned cold front will
be force through the area as the upper shortwave moves from the
central Plains into the local area. This will bring an abrupt end to
the warm conditions however, the frontal passage looks to remain dry
as the better moisture remain north of the area.

On Thursday, moderate CAA behind the cold front as well as northwest
flow aloft will make for cool and breezy conditions with highs in
the low to mid 40s which is still about 5 degrees above normal.
Northwest flow will relax on Friday but surface high pressure will
help keep temperatures next normal in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

The potential for a weekend storm has started to look a little more
possible over the past 24 hours as models have begun to merge on a
solution. This solution would take a deep upper trough over the
southwestern CONUS on Friday and move it eastward in the southern
Rockies by Saturday. As this occurs a fast moving shortwave diving
down from the Canadian Rockies into the northern Plains will merge
with the southern track system. This will bring a chance for rain
and snow to the area beginning Saturday and continuing into Sunday.
Where model solutions differ as to where the best moisture with this
system will reside. The EC brings a better plume of moisture north
into the local area, however the GFS, Canadian, and GFS Ensembles
keep the better moisture south of the area across southern Missouri
and Arkansas. As such have chance POPs going for Saturday into
Sunday with accumulating snow possible and highs in the low to mid
30s by Sunday. Precipitation will come to an end by Sunday night as
high pressure moves into area. High pressure will continue to reside
over the area on Monday as we experience some of the coldest high
temperatures we have experienced in some time with highs in the mid
20s to mid 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period.
Winds will gradually turn to the southeast this afternoon and evening
at speeds below 10 kts, then will veer to the south southwest and
increase to 15 kts or greater, with gusts up to 25 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KEAX 271729
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1129 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

This forecast package will be characterized by dry conditions and
(perhaps record) warm temperatures in the short term. That will be
followed by a return to near normal temperatures for the end of the
week. Finally, there is the potential for a weekend winter snow
storm possible before clearing into the beginning of next week.

A ridge of high pressure over the Plains early this morning
will shift east into the area today. This will allow for sunny skies
but weak mixing to only about 925mb where temperatures range from
2C-6C. This will highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Tonight, the
surface ridge will slide east of the area. A shortwave will begin to
round an upper level ridge over the Rockies forcing a cold front
into the Plains States. This, in turn, will tighten the pressure
gradient across the area as winds pick up from the south. This will
keep lows in the 30s. Wednesday, the upper level ridge moves into
the region while at the surface continued WAA will be ongoing out
ahead of the cold front moving slowly across the Plains. 850 temps
of 12C-16C should yield highs in the upper 50s to near 70 across
west central Missouri and east central Kansas. The current record
high for the day is 65 set in 1917 at MCI where 67 is currently
being forecast. Wednesday night the aforementioned cold front will
be force through the area as the upper shortwave moves from the
central Plains into the local area. This will bring an abrupt end to
the warm conditions however, the frontal passage looks to remain dry
as the better moisture remain north of the area.

On Thursday, moderate CAA behind the cold front as well as northwest
flow aloft will make for cool and breezy conditions with highs in
the low to mid 40s which is still about 5 degrees above normal.
Northwest flow will relax on Friday but surface high pressure will
help keep temperatures next normal in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

The potential for a weekend storm has started to look a little more
possible over the past 24 hours as models have begun to merge on a
solution. This solution would take a deep upper trough over the
southwestern CONUS on Friday and move it eastward in the southern
Rockies by Saturday. As this occurs a fast moving shortwave diving
down from the Canadian Rockies into the northern Plains will merge
with the southern track system. This will bring a chance for rain
and snow to the area beginning Saturday and continuing into Sunday.
Where model solutions differ as to where the best moisture with this
system will reside. The EC brings a better plume of moisture north
into the local area, however the GFS, Canadian, and GFS Ensembles
keep the better moisture south of the area across southern Missouri
and Arkansas. As such have chance POPs going for Saturday into
Sunday with accumulating snow possible and highs in the low to mid
30s by Sunday. Precipitation will come to an end by Sunday night as
high pressure moves into area. High pressure will continue to reside
over the area on Monday as we experience some of the coldest high
temperatures we have experienced in some time with highs in the mid
20s to mid 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period.
Winds will gradually turn to the southeast this afternoon and evening
at speeds below 10 kts, then will veer to the south southwest and
increase to 15 kts or greater, with gusts up to 25 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KEAX 271729
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1129 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

This forecast package will be characterized by dry conditions and
(perhaps record) warm temperatures in the short term. That will be
followed by a return to near normal temperatures for the end of the
week. Finally, there is the potential for a weekend winter snow
storm possible before clearing into the beginning of next week.

A ridge of high pressure over the Plains early this morning
will shift east into the area today. This will allow for sunny skies
but weak mixing to only about 925mb where temperatures range from
2C-6C. This will highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Tonight, the
surface ridge will slide east of the area. A shortwave will begin to
round an upper level ridge over the Rockies forcing a cold front
into the Plains States. This, in turn, will tighten the pressure
gradient across the area as winds pick up from the south. This will
keep lows in the 30s. Wednesday, the upper level ridge moves into
the region while at the surface continued WAA will be ongoing out
ahead of the cold front moving slowly across the Plains. 850 temps
of 12C-16C should yield highs in the upper 50s to near 70 across
west central Missouri and east central Kansas. The current record
high for the day is 65 set in 1917 at MCI where 67 is currently
being forecast. Wednesday night the aforementioned cold front will
be force through the area as the upper shortwave moves from the
central Plains into the local area. This will bring an abrupt end to
the warm conditions however, the frontal passage looks to remain dry
as the better moisture remain north of the area.

On Thursday, moderate CAA behind the cold front as well as northwest
flow aloft will make for cool and breezy conditions with highs in
the low to mid 40s which is still about 5 degrees above normal.
Northwest flow will relax on Friday but surface high pressure will
help keep temperatures next normal in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

The potential for a weekend storm has started to look a little more
possible over the past 24 hours as models have begun to merge on a
solution. This solution would take a deep upper trough over the
southwestern CONUS on Friday and move it eastward in the southern
Rockies by Saturday. As this occurs a fast moving shortwave diving
down from the Canadian Rockies into the northern Plains will merge
with the southern track system. This will bring a chance for rain
and snow to the area beginning Saturday and continuing into Sunday.
Where model solutions differ as to where the best moisture with this
system will reside. The EC brings a better plume of moisture north
into the local area, however the GFS, Canadian, and GFS Ensembles
keep the better moisture south of the area across southern Missouri
and Arkansas. As such have chance POPs going for Saturday into
Sunday with accumulating snow possible and highs in the low to mid
30s by Sunday. Precipitation will come to an end by Sunday night as
high pressure moves into area. High pressure will continue to reside
over the area on Monday as we experience some of the coldest high
temperatures we have experienced in some time with highs in the mid
20s to mid 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period.
Winds will gradually turn to the southeast this afternoon and evening
at speeds below 10 kts, then will veer to the south southwest and
increase to 15 kts or greater, with gusts up to 25 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KEAX 271729
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1129 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

This forecast package will be characterized by dry conditions and
(perhaps record) warm temperatures in the short term. That will be
followed by a return to near normal temperatures for the end of the
week. Finally, there is the potential for a weekend winter snow
storm possible before clearing into the beginning of next week.

A ridge of high pressure over the Plains early this morning
will shift east into the area today. This will allow for sunny skies
but weak mixing to only about 925mb where temperatures range from
2C-6C. This will highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Tonight, the
surface ridge will slide east of the area. A shortwave will begin to
round an upper level ridge over the Rockies forcing a cold front
into the Plains States. This, in turn, will tighten the pressure
gradient across the area as winds pick up from the south. This will
keep lows in the 30s. Wednesday, the upper level ridge moves into
the region while at the surface continued WAA will be ongoing out
ahead of the cold front moving slowly across the Plains. 850 temps
of 12C-16C should yield highs in the upper 50s to near 70 across
west central Missouri and east central Kansas. The current record
high for the day is 65 set in 1917 at MCI where 67 is currently
being forecast. Wednesday night the aforementioned cold front will
be force through the area as the upper shortwave moves from the
central Plains into the local area. This will bring an abrupt end to
the warm conditions however, the frontal passage looks to remain dry
as the better moisture remain north of the area.

On Thursday, moderate CAA behind the cold front as well as northwest
flow aloft will make for cool and breezy conditions with highs in
the low to mid 40s which is still about 5 degrees above normal.
Northwest flow will relax on Friday but surface high pressure will
help keep temperatures next normal in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

The potential for a weekend storm has started to look a little more
possible over the past 24 hours as models have begun to merge on a
solution. This solution would take a deep upper trough over the
southwestern CONUS on Friday and move it eastward in the southern
Rockies by Saturday. As this occurs a fast moving shortwave diving
down from the Canadian Rockies into the northern Plains will merge
with the southern track system. This will bring a chance for rain
and snow to the area beginning Saturday and continuing into Sunday.
Where model solutions differ as to where the best moisture with this
system will reside. The EC brings a better plume of moisture north
into the local area, however the GFS, Canadian, and GFS Ensembles
keep the better moisture south of the area across southern Missouri
and Arkansas. As such have chance POPs going for Saturday into
Sunday with accumulating snow possible and highs in the low to mid
30s by Sunday. Precipitation will come to an end by Sunday night as
high pressure moves into area. High pressure will continue to reside
over the area on Monday as we experience some of the coldest high
temperatures we have experienced in some time with highs in the mid
20s to mid 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period.
Winds will gradually turn to the southeast this afternoon and evening
at speeds below 10 kts, then will veer to the south southwest and
increase to 15 kts or greater, with gusts up to 25 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KLSX 271711
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1111 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 325 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

Satellite data at 08z showed the backedge of an area of clouds near
the MS river breaking apart, but a new batch of clouds was already
oozing southward from northeast IL and southeast IA.  To the west,
skies were clear, with cloudy skies covering much of our region east
of the MS river.  Temps were mild for late at night in late January,
with readings in the 30s.  Otherwise, NW flow prevailed aloft with
NW winds also at the surface, thanks to an area of weak low pressure
to the east and a weak ridge of high pressure to the west.

No upper level disturbances or fronts are expected today with weak
high pressure insteady building into the area.  With a dry
atmospheric column, the result will be dry wx.

The main forecast problem will be clouds and their impact on temps.
Flow at cloud level is expected to be out of the north this morning
with a transition to negligible wind flow in the afternoon as the
ridge builds in.  Even though the backedge of the clouds near the MS
river has collapsed, a new batch of clouds further to the north is
expected to drop south into our region and create a new backedge to
the cloud shield near the MS river again.  The afternoon should
feature some retreat of the cloud edge back to the east again as
weak subsidence from the high pressure ridge moves in.  Some
question on whether or not the surviving clouds to the east will get
moved back to the west if the ridge catches up and passes it too
fast tonight.

Max temps were forecast strongly favoring the lower MET MOS numbers
in much of southwest IL, with a MOS blend for the MS river region
and max temps at or slightly above the higher MAV MOS for central
MO.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

(Tonight through Thursday)

Main focus thru the period is temps with little in the way of
precip.

Mdls are generally in good agreement thru the period. However, some
differences emerge late in the period regarding the speed and depth
of the approaching trof. Mdls have come into better agreement with
thermal profiles. Have trended slightly cooler tonight with clouds
expected to clear out of the region for at least a portion of the
night. No changes to temps for Wed. While latest mdl guidance
suggests much of the region is not expected to mix above 950 mb,
mdls have struggled to warm fast enuf with these types of systems
lately. Heights lower quickly as the sfc ridge settles over the area
and have trended cooler late in the period.

Only precip expected is light precip associated with the system late
Wed night into Thurs morning. With such a strong s/w associated with
this system, enuf cold air my push in behind the system that the
precip may be SN. However, will keep p-types as RA for now until
mdls come into better agreement with precip placement and thermal
profiles with the precip.

(Friday through Monday)

As the sfc ridge remains in control thru the remainder of the week,
temps remain cooler ahead of the next approaching system. Focus
quickly turns to this system as mdl solns have finally come into
better agreement and are finally more consistent from cycle to
cycle. The leading s/w ejects into the srn Plains and spread precip
across the region on Sat as the sfc low develops ahead of the main
trof. Mdl solns are currently in very good agreement, tho some
differences in timing continue. Current track of this system shud
bring SN to at least portions of the CWA while. This system will
likely shift as it approaches and will be one to monitor. Much
colder air will move into the region behind this system as the
arctic sfc ridge builds into the area.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1032 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

Low level, MVFR cloudiness across eastern IA and much of IL still
advecting southwestward late this morning. There has also been
some diurnal development of cumulus or stratocumulus clouds
further southwest which were impacting STL and CPS. This diurnal
development will likely continue this afternoon despite some
subsidence across the area, so will need at least a tempo group in
UIN and the St Louis metro area tafs for MVFR cigs at times.
Surface winds will gradually veer around to a nely direction this
afternoon, and then to an ely direction this evening due to surface
ridging strengthening across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
regions tonight. As these winds take on a more e-nely component it
may cause the low level cloud cover to advect back into UIN and
the St Louis metro area late this afternoon or this evening. For
now make keep prevailing conditions VFR during this time period,
but will need to keep a close eye on satellite trends. Sely
surface winds will strengthen late tonight and Wednesday morning
as the surface pressure gradient tightens due to developing low
pressure over the northern Plains.

Specifics for KSTL: MVFR clouds have develped over STL and may
continue for much of the afternoon. The more solid cloud cover
east and north of STL may also try to advect back into STL late
this afternoon and this evening. For now may keep cloud conditions
scattered tonight, but would not be surprised if it goes MVFR again
for at least part of the night. The nly surface wind will
gradually weaken and veer around to a nely direction late this
afternoon, and to an ely direction by late evening. The wind will
intensify again Wednesday morning from a sely direction.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 271711
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1111 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 325 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

Satellite data at 08z showed the backedge of an area of clouds near
the MS river breaking apart, but a new batch of clouds was already
oozing southward from northeast IL and southeast IA.  To the west,
skies were clear, with cloudy skies covering much of our region east
of the MS river.  Temps were mild for late at night in late January,
with readings in the 30s.  Otherwise, NW flow prevailed aloft with
NW winds also at the surface, thanks to an area of weak low pressure
to the east and a weak ridge of high pressure to the west.

No upper level disturbances or fronts are expected today with weak
high pressure insteady building into the area.  With a dry
atmospheric column, the result will be dry wx.

The main forecast problem will be clouds and their impact on temps.
Flow at cloud level is expected to be out of the north this morning
with a transition to negligible wind flow in the afternoon as the
ridge builds in.  Even though the backedge of the clouds near the MS
river has collapsed, a new batch of clouds further to the north is
expected to drop south into our region and create a new backedge to
the cloud shield near the MS river again.  The afternoon should
feature some retreat of the cloud edge back to the east again as
weak subsidence from the high pressure ridge moves in.  Some
question on whether or not the surviving clouds to the east will get
moved back to the west if the ridge catches up and passes it too
fast tonight.

Max temps were forecast strongly favoring the lower MET MOS numbers
in much of southwest IL, with a MOS blend for the MS river region
and max temps at or slightly above the higher MAV MOS for central
MO.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

(Tonight through Thursday)

Main focus thru the period is temps with little in the way of
precip.

Mdls are generally in good agreement thru the period. However, some
differences emerge late in the period regarding the speed and depth
of the approaching trof. Mdls have come into better agreement with
thermal profiles. Have trended slightly cooler tonight with clouds
expected to clear out of the region for at least a portion of the
night. No changes to temps for Wed. While latest mdl guidance
suggests much of the region is not expected to mix above 950 mb,
mdls have struggled to warm fast enuf with these types of systems
lately. Heights lower quickly as the sfc ridge settles over the area
and have trended cooler late in the period.

Only precip expected is light precip associated with the system late
Wed night into Thurs morning. With such a strong s/w associated with
this system, enuf cold air my push in behind the system that the
precip may be SN. However, will keep p-types as RA for now until
mdls come into better agreement with precip placement and thermal
profiles with the precip.

(Friday through Monday)

As the sfc ridge remains in control thru the remainder of the week,
temps remain cooler ahead of the next approaching system. Focus
quickly turns to this system as mdl solns have finally come into
better agreement and are finally more consistent from cycle to
cycle. The leading s/w ejects into the srn Plains and spread precip
across the region on Sat as the sfc low develops ahead of the main
trof. Mdl solns are currently in very good agreement, tho some
differences in timing continue. Current track of this system shud
bring SN to at least portions of the CWA while. This system will
likely shift as it approaches and will be one to monitor. Much
colder air will move into the region behind this system as the
arctic sfc ridge builds into the area.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1032 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

Low level, MVFR cloudiness across eastern IA and much of IL still
advecting southwestward late this morning. There has also been
some diurnal development of cumulus or stratocumulus clouds
further southwest which were impacting STL and CPS. This diurnal
development will likely continue this afternoon despite some
subsidence across the area, so will need at least a tempo group in
UIN and the St Louis metro area tafs for MVFR cigs at times.
Surface winds will gradually veer around to a nely direction this
afternoon, and then to an ely direction this evening due to surface
ridging strengthening across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
regions tonight. As these winds take on a more e-nely component it
may cause the low level cloud cover to advect back into UIN and
the St Louis metro area late this afternoon or this evening. For
now make keep prevailing conditions VFR during this time period,
but will need to keep a close eye on satellite trends. Sely
surface winds will strengthen late tonight and Wednesday morning
as the surface pressure gradient tightens due to developing low
pressure over the northern Plains.

Specifics for KSTL: MVFR clouds have develped over STL and may
continue for much of the afternoon. The more solid cloud cover
east and north of STL may also try to advect back into STL late
this afternoon and this evening. For now may keep cloud conditions
scattered tonight, but would not be surprised if it goes MVFR again
for at least part of the night. The nly surface wind will
gradually weaken and veer around to a nely direction late this
afternoon, and to an ely direction by late evening. The wind will
intensify again Wednesday morning from a sely direction.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







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