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000
FXUS63 KLSX 170156
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
856 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 845 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

Going forecast looks on track this evening. Sky is clear/mostly
clear across the area with just a bit of cloud cover hanging in
across our SE MO counties. Short range guidance continues to show
an increasing amount of low level moisture convergence over
eastern Kansas/western Missouri this evening with convection
breaking out between 06Z-08Z. Models are pretty consistent in
keeping all but perhaps a few showers out of our area through 12Z
with the lion`s share of the precip back over southwest Missouri.
Should see scattered showers and thunderstorms spread into parts
of central and eastern Missouri later Wednesday morning. RAP and
HRRR seem to want to bring some showers into northeast Missouri by
15Z as well...and I may tweak the PoPs up before sending out the
midnight update if the new 00Z NAM and GFS agree.

Carney

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

A weak s/w will approach the CWA late tonight bringing a chance
for storms to wrn and srn portions of the CWA late tonight.
Otherwise, expect clouds to continue to break up during the
afternoon and into the evening. Clouds are expected to build into
the region from the W tonight ahead of the s/w. Have trended twd
a compromise of guidance for wrn portions of the CWA and twd the
cooler guidance for ern portions. Latest guidance suggests FG will
develop late tonight impacting srn and ern portions of the CWA
where radiational cooling will be greatest.

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

(Wednesday through Friday)

Main concern continues to be rain chances tomorrow into tomorrow
night over mainly central and southeast Missouri.  GFS/NAM/ECMWF are
still in relatively good agreement in dropping a weak shortwave
trough across Missouri during the day tomorrow.  Each of these
models shows some weak low level moisture lingering across central
and southeast Missouri into Wednesday night, so will continue a
chance of showers and thunderstorms in this area.   This scenario is
depicted pretty well at least through 00Z by the reflectivity on the
NSSL WRF.  Thereafter will maintain a dry forecast Thursday and
Friday as a surface ridge moves across the area at the same time a
upper ridge builds in from the west.

Went on the cooler side of guidance for highs the next couple of
days given the easterly surface flow and it matches up better with
mixing down the 900mb temperatures.   Likewise followed the cooler
NAM MOS for lows.

(Saturday through next Tuesday)

While there is still some disagreement between the GFS/ECMWF
regarding the speed and depth of a trough that will pass through the
area this weekend, it still appears that the attendant cold front
will move through on Saturday night and early Sunday.  Will keep
chances of showers and thunderstorms going Saturday into Sunday.
Will keep Monday and Tuesday dry at this point as we will be on the
back side of the the upper trough, though the latest runs of the GFS
is showing a secondary through dropping down in the northwesterly
flow on Tuesday.  This is a new trend that the ECMWF is not
showing.  Still expect at or just above normal temperatures ahead of
the front on Saturday before they drop back below normal for early
next week given expected 850mb temperatures in the 6-9C
range.


Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 541 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

Northwest flow aloft continues through the period with a
reinforcing short wave coming through tonight. High pressure at
the surface shifts east allowing for a weak southerly flow to
develop. Low level jet, about 5000 ft, kicks in pointing at KS/MO
border,thus most models want to develop precipitation overnight in
this area. Looks like rain will stay west of terminals with COU
having the best chance, but chances still low enough to leave out
of the forecast. VCSH may be needed for the next forecast. Models
also want to bring in some MVFR ceilings. Given the pattern is
more mid-Fall like rather than late summer, and with 60 dew points
not that far away, will go with this at COU and STL. Have a few
doubts about this at STL, so will not hit it extremely hard.

Specifics for KSTL: Looks like any rain that develops will stay to
the soutwest of the terminal. Big question is if MVFR ceilings
will arrive. Given the cool pattern, feel it is possible but have
doubts about how extensive the MVFR shield will be. Surface wind
will be weak, so it is up to the low level jet to bring in the
MVFR clouds. Will bring in MVFR ceilings for a while in the
morning, starting around 12z, then raise them about 4 hours
later. Rest of the period should be VFR

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





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000
FXUS63 KEAX 162327
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
627 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE INHERITED FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. LATE TONIGHT THE AREA SHOULD
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST COUPLED
WITH MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT / WARM AIR ADVECTION. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUPPORT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
OF THE STRONGER STORMS...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. THE BEST
CHANCES TO SEE PRECIP EXISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MID-MORNING HOURS BEFORE ANOTHER
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY A WARM FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MIX INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. AS WITH TONIGHT`S ACTIVITY THE BEST CHANCES OF
SEEING ANY PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. ON SATURDAY A DEEP TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AS IT DOES SOME OF THE
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE SYSTEM.
FURTHERMORE, MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
RATHER ROBUST THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY. DPROG/DT OF THE GFS AND EC
HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF AMOUNTS WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP REMAINING
WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. AT THIS TIME I STAYED THE COURSE OF A WETTER
SOLUTION BUT OBVIOUSLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR SHOULD THE LATEST DRIER
TRENDS CONTINUE. ON SUNDAY THE AREA CLEARS OUT WITH DRIER WEATHER AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

The near looks to remain VFR with increasing mid lvl clouds expected
tonight. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the area after
midnight with hi-res models bringing thunderstorms into the VC of the
terminals around 10Z with MVFR cigs. Thunderstorms will shift south
of the terminals by mid-morning with cigs scattering out around
2-3kft. Winds through the period will be light out of the SE.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 162327
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
627 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE INHERITED FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. LATE TONIGHT THE AREA SHOULD
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST COUPLED
WITH MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT / WARM AIR ADVECTION. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUPPORT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
OF THE STRONGER STORMS...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. THE BEST
CHANCES TO SEE PRECIP EXISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MID-MORNING HOURS BEFORE ANOTHER
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY A WARM FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MIX INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. AS WITH TONIGHT`S ACTIVITY THE BEST CHANCES OF
SEEING ANY PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. ON SATURDAY A DEEP TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AS IT DOES SOME OF THE
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE SYSTEM.
FURTHERMORE, MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
RATHER ROBUST THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY. DPROG/DT OF THE GFS AND EC
HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF AMOUNTS WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP REMAINING
WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. AT THIS TIME I STAYED THE COURSE OF A WETTER
SOLUTION BUT OBVIOUSLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR SHOULD THE LATEST DRIER
TRENDS CONTINUE. ON SUNDAY THE AREA CLEARS OUT WITH DRIER WEATHER AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

The near looks to remain VFR with increasing mid lvl clouds expected
tonight. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the area after
midnight with hi-res models bringing thunderstorms into the VC of the
terminals around 10Z with MVFR cigs. Thunderstorms will shift south
of the terminals by mid-morning with cigs scattering out around
2-3kft. Winds through the period will be light out of the SE.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 162327
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
627 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE INHERITED FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. LATE TONIGHT THE AREA SHOULD
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST COUPLED
WITH MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT / WARM AIR ADVECTION. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUPPORT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
OF THE STRONGER STORMS...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. THE BEST
CHANCES TO SEE PRECIP EXISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MID-MORNING HOURS BEFORE ANOTHER
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY A WARM FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MIX INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. AS WITH TONIGHT`S ACTIVITY THE BEST CHANCES OF
SEEING ANY PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. ON SATURDAY A DEEP TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AS IT DOES SOME OF THE
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE SYSTEM.
FURTHERMORE, MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
RATHER ROBUST THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY. DPROG/DT OF THE GFS AND EC
HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF AMOUNTS WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP REMAINING
WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. AT THIS TIME I STAYED THE COURSE OF A WETTER
SOLUTION BUT OBVIOUSLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR SHOULD THE LATEST DRIER
TRENDS CONTINUE. ON SUNDAY THE AREA CLEARS OUT WITH DRIER WEATHER AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

The near looks to remain VFR with increasing mid lvl clouds expected
tonight. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the area after
midnight with hi-res models bringing thunderstorms into the VC of the
terminals around 10Z with MVFR cigs. Thunderstorms will shift south
of the terminals by mid-morning with cigs scattering out around
2-3kft. Winds through the period will be light out of the SE.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 162327
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
627 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE INHERITED FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. LATE TONIGHT THE AREA SHOULD
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST COUPLED
WITH MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT / WARM AIR ADVECTION. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUPPORT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
OF THE STRONGER STORMS...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. THE BEST
CHANCES TO SEE PRECIP EXISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MID-MORNING HOURS BEFORE ANOTHER
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY A WARM FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MIX INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. AS WITH TONIGHT`S ACTIVITY THE BEST CHANCES OF
SEEING ANY PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. ON SATURDAY A DEEP TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AS IT DOES SOME OF THE
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE SYSTEM.
FURTHERMORE, MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
RATHER ROBUST THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY. DPROG/DT OF THE GFS AND EC
HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF AMOUNTS WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP REMAINING
WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. AT THIS TIME I STAYED THE COURSE OF A WETTER
SOLUTION BUT OBVIOUSLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR SHOULD THE LATEST DRIER
TRENDS CONTINUE. ON SUNDAY THE AREA CLEARS OUT WITH DRIER WEATHER AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

The near looks to remain VFR with increasing mid lvl clouds expected
tonight. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the area after
midnight with hi-res models bringing thunderstorms into the VC of the
terminals around 10Z with MVFR cigs. Thunderstorms will shift south
of the terminals by mid-morning with cigs scattering out around
2-3kft. Winds through the period will be light out of the SE.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...73






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000
FXUS63 KSGF 162314
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
614 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A stalled front was currently located just to our south near the
I-40 corridor. Clouds for the most part have held on for most of
the area with the far northwestern areas being the exception. A
mid level impulse located near South Dakota this afternoon will
move across the area by early Wednesday morning. A modest low
level jet will develop late tonight with elevated CAPE values
between 1000 to 2000 J/KG. Effective shear will be around 35
knots.

A cluster of convection will develop around southeast Kansas and
western Missouri after 3 am tonight through the early morning
hours on Wednesday. Initial storm development could lead to a few
stronger updrafts and marginally severe hail. The threat area for
that by tomorrow morning will be west of Highway 65. Average QPF
from storms tonight through Wednesday night will be around an inch
with isolated heavier amounts up to two inches possible across west
central Missouri.

This first cluster of convection will move off to the southeast
and be dissipating by late morning to midday Wednesday. The
frontal boundary will be oriented from northwest to southeast
roughly southeast Kansas to the Branson area by tomorrow
afternoon. There is some uncertainty about the chances for any
afternoon convection tomorrow. Temperatures will also be tricky
with lower 70s far eastern Ozarks to the lower 80s across far
southwestern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Another subtle impulse will generate another cluster or scattered
convection Wednesday evening into Wednesday night over the area.
Again a few isolated stronger storms can not be ruled out with
marginally severe hail being the threat. Will keep the chance for
additional scattered convection on Thursday with the boundary in
the area.

Upper level ridging will build in late Thursday into Friday with a
modest warming trend for the end of the week. A trough will
develop over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest by Saturday.
This will bring down a Canadian cold front with a chance for
showers and storms again late Saturday into early on Sunday.

There were some questions about the left over energy and moisture
from the tropical system affecting the southwestern U.S. being
pulled up into the trough and central U.S. It appears the leftover
energy and plume of tropical moisture will remain just to our
southwest across the upper Red River Valley region from the latest
12z guidance. Something to keep an eye on but likely will not
bring us any heavy rainfall across the Ozarks region.

Cold front clears through on Sunday bring cooler and drier weather
for early next week just in time for Autumn to begin late next
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A low level stratus deck
remains over far southern Missouri early this evening. This
stratus deck has finally started to clear over the KSGF and KJLN sties,
but remains in place across the KBBG site early this evening. This
MVFR stratus deck is expected to persist over the Branson area
this evening through the overnight hours. VFR conditions are
expected over the Joplin and Springfield areas this evening, but
this MVFR stratus deck may build back over these areas during the
overnight hours.

A warm front will lift northeast through the region as a weak upper
level disturbance tracks to the southeast through the area. As the
disturbance tracks down the front scattered thunderstorms
will developing early Wednesday morning over the region. Do not
expect storms to develop along the front until the disturbance
runs down the front which will be over or just north of the TAF
sites starting near 10Z Wednesday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 162314
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
614 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A stalled front was currently located just to our south near the
I-40 corridor. Clouds for the most part have held on for most of
the area with the far northwestern areas being the exception. A
mid level impulse located near South Dakota this afternoon will
move across the area by early Wednesday morning. A modest low
level jet will develop late tonight with elevated CAPE values
between 1000 to 2000 J/KG. Effective shear will be around 35
knots.

A cluster of convection will develop around southeast Kansas and
western Missouri after 3 am tonight through the early morning
hours on Wednesday. Initial storm development could lead to a few
stronger updrafts and marginally severe hail. The threat area for
that by tomorrow morning will be west of Highway 65. Average QPF
from storms tonight through Wednesday night will be around an inch
with isolated heavier amounts up to two inches possible across west
central Missouri.

This first cluster of convection will move off to the southeast
and be dissipating by late morning to midday Wednesday. The
frontal boundary will be oriented from northwest to southeast
roughly southeast Kansas to the Branson area by tomorrow
afternoon. There is some uncertainty about the chances for any
afternoon convection tomorrow. Temperatures will also be tricky
with lower 70s far eastern Ozarks to the lower 80s across far
southwestern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Another subtle impulse will generate another cluster or scattered
convection Wednesday evening into Wednesday night over the area.
Again a few isolated stronger storms can not be ruled out with
marginally severe hail being the threat. Will keep the chance for
additional scattered convection on Thursday with the boundary in
the area.

Upper level ridging will build in late Thursday into Friday with a
modest warming trend for the end of the week. A trough will
develop over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest by Saturday.
This will bring down a Canadian cold front with a chance for
showers and storms again late Saturday into early on Sunday.

There were some questions about the left over energy and moisture
from the tropical system affecting the southwestern U.S. being
pulled up into the trough and central U.S. It appears the leftover
energy and plume of tropical moisture will remain just to our
southwest across the upper Red River Valley region from the latest
12z guidance. Something to keep an eye on but likely will not
bring us any heavy rainfall across the Ozarks region.

Cold front clears through on Sunday bring cooler and drier weather
for early next week just in time for Autumn to begin late next
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A low level stratus deck
remains over far southern Missouri early this evening. This
stratus deck has finally started to clear over the KSGF and KJLN sties,
but remains in place across the KBBG site early this evening. This
MVFR stratus deck is expected to persist over the Branson area
this evening through the overnight hours. VFR conditions are
expected over the Joplin and Springfield areas this evening, but
this MVFR stratus deck may build back over these areas during the
overnight hours.

A warm front will lift northeast through the region as a weak upper
level disturbance tracks to the southeast through the area. As the
disturbance tracks down the front scattered thunderstorms
will developing early Wednesday morning over the region. Do not
expect storms to develop along the front until the disturbance
runs down the front which will be over or just north of the TAF
sites starting near 10Z Wednesday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 162314
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
614 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A stalled front was currently located just to our south near the
I-40 corridor. Clouds for the most part have held on for most of
the area with the far northwestern areas being the exception. A
mid level impulse located near South Dakota this afternoon will
move across the area by early Wednesday morning. A modest low
level jet will develop late tonight with elevated CAPE values
between 1000 to 2000 J/KG. Effective shear will be around 35
knots.

A cluster of convection will develop around southeast Kansas and
western Missouri after 3 am tonight through the early morning
hours on Wednesday. Initial storm development could lead to a few
stronger updrafts and marginally severe hail. The threat area for
that by tomorrow morning will be west of Highway 65. Average QPF
from storms tonight through Wednesday night will be around an inch
with isolated heavier amounts up to two inches possible across west
central Missouri.

This first cluster of convection will move off to the southeast
and be dissipating by late morning to midday Wednesday. The
frontal boundary will be oriented from northwest to southeast
roughly southeast Kansas to the Branson area by tomorrow
afternoon. There is some uncertainty about the chances for any
afternoon convection tomorrow. Temperatures will also be tricky
with lower 70s far eastern Ozarks to the lower 80s across far
southwestern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Another subtle impulse will generate another cluster or scattered
convection Wednesday evening into Wednesday night over the area.
Again a few isolated stronger storms can not be ruled out with
marginally severe hail being the threat. Will keep the chance for
additional scattered convection on Thursday with the boundary in
the area.

Upper level ridging will build in late Thursday into Friday with a
modest warming trend for the end of the week. A trough will
develop over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest by Saturday.
This will bring down a Canadian cold front with a chance for
showers and storms again late Saturday into early on Sunday.

There were some questions about the left over energy and moisture
from the tropical system affecting the southwestern U.S. being
pulled up into the trough and central U.S. It appears the leftover
energy and plume of tropical moisture will remain just to our
southwest across the upper Red River Valley region from the latest
12z guidance. Something to keep an eye on but likely will not
bring us any heavy rainfall across the Ozarks region.

Cold front clears through on Sunday bring cooler and drier weather
for early next week just in time for Autumn to begin late next
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A low level stratus deck
remains over far southern Missouri early this evening. This
stratus deck has finally started to clear over the KSGF and KJLN sties,
but remains in place across the KBBG site early this evening. This
MVFR stratus deck is expected to persist over the Branson area
this evening through the overnight hours. VFR conditions are
expected over the Joplin and Springfield areas this evening, but
this MVFR stratus deck may build back over these areas during the
overnight hours.

A warm front will lift northeast through the region as a weak upper
level disturbance tracks to the southeast through the area. As the
disturbance tracks down the front scattered thunderstorms
will developing early Wednesday morning over the region. Do not
expect storms to develop along the front until the disturbance
runs down the front which will be over or just north of the TAF
sites starting near 10Z Wednesday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 162314
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
614 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A stalled front was currently located just to our south near the
I-40 corridor. Clouds for the most part have held on for most of
the area with the far northwestern areas being the exception. A
mid level impulse located near South Dakota this afternoon will
move across the area by early Wednesday morning. A modest low
level jet will develop late tonight with elevated CAPE values
between 1000 to 2000 J/KG. Effective shear will be around 35
knots.

A cluster of convection will develop around southeast Kansas and
western Missouri after 3 am tonight through the early morning
hours on Wednesday. Initial storm development could lead to a few
stronger updrafts and marginally severe hail. The threat area for
that by tomorrow morning will be west of Highway 65. Average QPF
from storms tonight through Wednesday night will be around an inch
with isolated heavier amounts up to two inches possible across west
central Missouri.

This first cluster of convection will move off to the southeast
and be dissipating by late morning to midday Wednesday. The
frontal boundary will be oriented from northwest to southeast
roughly southeast Kansas to the Branson area by tomorrow
afternoon. There is some uncertainty about the chances for any
afternoon convection tomorrow. Temperatures will also be tricky
with lower 70s far eastern Ozarks to the lower 80s across far
southwestern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Another subtle impulse will generate another cluster or scattered
convection Wednesday evening into Wednesday night over the area.
Again a few isolated stronger storms can not be ruled out with
marginally severe hail being the threat. Will keep the chance for
additional scattered convection on Thursday with the boundary in
the area.

Upper level ridging will build in late Thursday into Friday with a
modest warming trend for the end of the week. A trough will
develop over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest by Saturday.
This will bring down a Canadian cold front with a chance for
showers and storms again late Saturday into early on Sunday.

There were some questions about the left over energy and moisture
from the tropical system affecting the southwestern U.S. being
pulled up into the trough and central U.S. It appears the leftover
energy and plume of tropical moisture will remain just to our
southwest across the upper Red River Valley region from the latest
12z guidance. Something to keep an eye on but likely will not
bring us any heavy rainfall across the Ozarks region.

Cold front clears through on Sunday bring cooler and drier weather
for early next week just in time for Autumn to begin late next
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A low level stratus deck
remains over far southern Missouri early this evening. This
stratus deck has finally started to clear over the KSGF and KJLN sties,
but remains in place across the KBBG site early this evening. This
MVFR stratus deck is expected to persist over the Branson area
this evening through the overnight hours. VFR conditions are
expected over the Joplin and Springfield areas this evening, but
this MVFR stratus deck may build back over these areas during the
overnight hours.

A warm front will lift northeast through the region as a weak upper
level disturbance tracks to the southeast through the area. As the
disturbance tracks down the front scattered thunderstorms
will developing early Wednesday morning over the region. Do not
expect storms to develop along the front until the disturbance
runs down the front which will be over or just north of the TAF
sites starting near 10Z Wednesday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KLSX 162308
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
608 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

A weak s/w will approach the CWA late tonight bringing a chance
for storms to wrn and srn portions of the CWA late tonight.
Otherwise, expect clouds to continue to break up during the
afternoon and into the evening. Clouds are expected to build into
the region from the W tonight ahead of the s/w. Have trended twd
a compromise of guidance for wrn portions of the CWA and twd the
cooler guidance for ern portions. Latest guidance suggests FG will
develop late tonight impacting srn and ern portions of the CWA
where radiational cooling will be greatest.

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

(Wednesday through Friday)

Main concern continues to be rain chances tomorrow into tomorrow
night over mainly central and southeast Missouri.  GFS/NAM/ECMWF are
still in relatively good agreement in dropping a weak shortwave
trough across Missouri during the day tomorrow.  Each of these
models shows some weak low level moisture lingering across central
and southeast Missouri into Wednesday night, so will continue a
chance of showers and thunderstorms in this area.   This scenario is
depicted pretty well at least through 00Z by the reflectivity on the
NSSL WRF.  Thereafter will maintain a dry forecast Thursday and
Friday as a surface ridge moves across the area at the same time a
upper ridge builds in from the west.

Went on the cooler side of guidance for highs the next couple of
days given the easterly surface flow and it matches up better with
mixing down the 900mb temperatures.   Likewise followed the cooler
NAM MOS for lows.

(Saturday through next Tuesday)

While there is still some disagreement between the GFS/ECMWF
regarding the speed and depth of a trough that will pass through the
area this weekend, it still appears that the attendant cold front
will move through on Saturday night and early Sunday.  Will keep
chances of showers and thunderstorms going Saturday into Sunday.
Will keep Monday and Tuesday dry at this point as we will be on the
back side of the the upper trough, though the latest runs of the GFS
is showing a secondary through dropping down in the northwesterly
flow on Tuesday.  This is a new trend that the ECMWF is not
showing.  Still expect at or just above normal temperatures ahead of
the front on Saturday before they drop back below normal for early
next week given expected 850mb temperatures in the 6-9C
range.


Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 541 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

Northwest flow aloft continues through the period with a
reinforcing short wave coming through tonight. High pressure at
the surface shifts east allowing for a weak southerly flow to
develop. Low level jet, about 5000 ft, kicks in pointing at KS/MO
border,thus most models want to develop precipitation overnight in
this area. Looks like rain will stay west of terminals with COU
having the best chance, but chances still low enough to leave out
of the forecast. VCSH may be needed for the next forecast. Models
also want to bring in some MVFR ceilings. Given the pattern is
more mid-Fall like rather than late summer, and with 60 dew points
not that far away, will go with this at COU and STL. Have a few
doubts about this at STL, so will not hit it extremely hard.

Specifics for KSTL: Looks like any rain that develops will stay to
the soutwest of the terminal. Big question is if MVFR ceilings
will arrive. Given the cool pattern, feel it is possible but have
doubts about how extensive the MVFR shield will be. Surface wind
will be weak, so it is up to the low level jet to bring in the
MVFR clouds. Will bring in MVFR ceilings for a while in the
morning, starting around 12z, then raise them about 4 hours
later. Rest of the period should be VFR

JPK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     53  72  63  76 /  10  20  10   5
Quincy          49  71  54  72 /  10  10   5   5
Columbia        53  74  59  74 /  30  40  20  10
Jefferson City  52  74  59  74 /  30  40  30  10
Salem           47  70  53  72 /  10  10   5   0
Farmington      50  70  55  73 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 162308
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
608 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

A weak s/w will approach the CWA late tonight bringing a chance
for storms to wrn and srn portions of the CWA late tonight.
Otherwise, expect clouds to continue to break up during the
afternoon and into the evening. Clouds are expected to build into
the region from the W tonight ahead of the s/w. Have trended twd
a compromise of guidance for wrn portions of the CWA and twd the
cooler guidance for ern portions. Latest guidance suggests FG will
develop late tonight impacting srn and ern portions of the CWA
where radiational cooling will be greatest.

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

(Wednesday through Friday)

Main concern continues to be rain chances tomorrow into tomorrow
night over mainly central and southeast Missouri.  GFS/NAM/ECMWF are
still in relatively good agreement in dropping a weak shortwave
trough across Missouri during the day tomorrow.  Each of these
models shows some weak low level moisture lingering across central
and southeast Missouri into Wednesday night, so will continue a
chance of showers and thunderstorms in this area.   This scenario is
depicted pretty well at least through 00Z by the reflectivity on the
NSSL WRF.  Thereafter will maintain a dry forecast Thursday and
Friday as a surface ridge moves across the area at the same time a
upper ridge builds in from the west.

Went on the cooler side of guidance for highs the next couple of
days given the easterly surface flow and it matches up better with
mixing down the 900mb temperatures.   Likewise followed the cooler
NAM MOS for lows.

(Saturday through next Tuesday)

While there is still some disagreement between the GFS/ECMWF
regarding the speed and depth of a trough that will pass through the
area this weekend, it still appears that the attendant cold front
will move through on Saturday night and early Sunday.  Will keep
chances of showers and thunderstorms going Saturday into Sunday.
Will keep Monday and Tuesday dry at this point as we will be on the
back side of the the upper trough, though the latest runs of the GFS
is showing a secondary through dropping down in the northwesterly
flow on Tuesday.  This is a new trend that the ECMWF is not
showing.  Still expect at or just above normal temperatures ahead of
the front on Saturday before they drop back below normal for early
next week given expected 850mb temperatures in the 6-9C
range.


Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 541 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

Northwest flow aloft continues through the period with a
reinforcing short wave coming through tonight. High pressure at
the surface shifts east allowing for a weak southerly flow to
develop. Low level jet, about 5000 ft, kicks in pointing at KS/MO
border,thus most models want to develop precipitation overnight in
this area. Looks like rain will stay west of terminals with COU
having the best chance, but chances still low enough to leave out
of the forecast. VCSH may be needed for the next forecast. Models
also want to bring in some MVFR ceilings. Given the pattern is
more mid-Fall like rather than late summer, and with 60 dew points
not that far away, will go with this at COU and STL. Have a few
doubts about this at STL, so will not hit it extremely hard.

Specifics for KSTL: Looks like any rain that develops will stay to
the soutwest of the terminal. Big question is if MVFR ceilings
will arrive. Given the cool pattern, feel it is possible but have
doubts about how extensive the MVFR shield will be. Surface wind
will be weak, so it is up to the low level jet to bring in the
MVFR clouds. Will bring in MVFR ceilings for a while in the
morning, starting around 12z, then raise them about 4 hours
later. Rest of the period should be VFR

JPK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     53  72  63  76 /  10  20  10   5
Quincy          49  71  54  72 /  10  10   5   5
Columbia        53  74  59  74 /  30  40  20  10
Jefferson City  52  74  59  74 /  30  40  30  10
Salem           47  70  53  72 /  10  10   5   0
Farmington      50  70  55  73 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 162020
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
300 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A stalled front was currently located just to our south near the
I-40 corridor. Clouds for the most part have held on for most of
the area with the far northwestern areas being the exception. A
mid level impulse located near South Dakota this afternoon will
move across the area by early Wednesday morning. A modest low
level jet will develop late tonight with elevated CAPE values
between 1000 to 2000 J/KG. Effective shear will be around 35
knots.

A cluster of convection will develop around southeast Kansas and
western Missouri after 3 am tonight through the early morning
hours on Wednesday. Initial storm development could lead to a few
stronger updrafts and marginally severe hail. The threat area for
that by tomorrow morning will be west of Highway 65. Average QPF
from storms tonight through Wednesday night will be around an inch
with isolated heavier amounts up to two inches possible across west
central Missouri.

This first cluster of convection will move off to the southeast
and be dissipating by late morning to midday Wednesday. The
frontal boundary will be oriented from northwest to southeast
roughly southeast Kansas to the Branson area by tomorrow
afternoon. There is some uncertainty about the chances for any
afternoon convection tomorrow. Temperatures will also be tricky
with lower 70s far eastern Ozarks to the lower 80s across far
southwestern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Another subtle impulse will generate another cluster or scattered
convection Wednesday evening into Wednesday night over the area.
Again a few isolated stronger storms can not be ruled out with
marginally severe hail being the threat. Will keep the chance for
additional scattered convection on Thursday with the boundary in
the area.

Upper level ridging will build in late Thursday into Friday with a
modest warming trend for the end of the week. A trough will
develop over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest by Saturday.
This will bring down a Canadian cold front with a chance for
showers and storms again late Saturday into early on Sunday.

There were some questions about the left over energy and moisture
from the tropical system affecting the southwestern U.S. being
pulled up into the trough and central U.S. It appears the leftover
energy and plume of tropical moisture will remain just to our
southwest across the upper Red River Valley region from the latest
12z guidance. Something to keep an eye on but likely will not
bring us any heavy rainfall across the Ozarks region.

Cold front clears through on Sunday bring cooler and drier weather
for early next week just in time for Autumn to begin late next
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Pilots can expect MVFR ceilings at area terminals for much of this
TAF period. Widespread stratus will linger through Wednesday
morning with only the possibility of partial clearing this
afternoon and evening.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late
tonight into Wednesday morning as a warm front lifts northward.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster








000
FXUS63 KLSX 162011
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
311 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

A weak s/w will approach the CWA late tonight bringing a chance
for storms to wrn and srn portions of the CWA late tonight.
Otherwise, expect clouds to continue to break up during the
afternoon and into the evening. Clouds are expected to build into
the region from the W tonight ahead of the s/w. Have trended twd
a compromise of guidance for wrn portions of the CWA and twd the
cooler guidance for ern portions. Latest guidance suggests FG will
develop late tonight impacting srn and ern portions of the CWA
where radiational cooling will be greatest.

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

(Wednesday through Friday)

Main concern continues to be rain chances tomorrow into tomorrow
night over mainly central and southeast Missouri.  GFS/NAM/ECMWF are
still in relatively good agreement in dropping a weak shortwave
trough across Missouri during the day tomorrow.  Each of these
models shows some weak low level moisture lingering across central
and southeast Missouri into Wednesday night, so will continue a
chance of showers and thunderstorms in this area.   This scenario is
depicted pretty well at least through 00Z by the reflectivity on the
NSSL WRF.  Thereafter will maintain a dry forecast Thursday and
Friday as a surface ridge moves across the area at the same time a
upper ridge builds in from the west.

Went on the cooler side of guidance for highs the next couple of
days given the easterly surface flow and it matches up better with
mixing down the 900mb temperatures.   Likewise followed the cooler
NAM MOS for lows.

(Saturday through next Tuesday)

While there is still some disagreement between the GFS/ECMWF
regarding the speed and depth of a trough that will pass through the
area this weekend, it still appears that the attendant cold front
will move through on Saturday night and early Sunday.  Will keep
chances of showers and thunderstorms going Saturday into Sunday.
Will keep Monday and Tuesday dry at this point as we will be on the
back side of the the upper trough, though the latest runs of the GFS
is showing a secondary through dropping down in the northwesterly
flow on Tuesday.  This is a new trend that the ECMWF is not
showing.  Still expect at or just above normal temperatures ahead of
the front on Saturday before they drop back below normal for early
next week given expected 850mb temperatures in the 6-9C
range.


Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

Over the past several hours the n edge of stratus deck has become
increasingly ragged, and at 1115z roughly stretched from just
south of KSPI to near KMHL with a secondary large hole developing
in the cloud deck over sw IL just east of STL metro area. Believe
these trends indicate that the drier air is beginning to make
inroads into the lower level moisture. The cloud deck will be
south of KUIN this morning, although some fog is still possible
with low t/td spreads. Low clouds have also exited KCOU which will
also make it susceptible to fog; however am also seeing a
westward expansion of the low cloud deck just e of KMYJ, so
believe that back edge of stratus may clip KCOU in the 14-15z
time frame. For STL metro sites have followed trends of obs in and
north of area, with a mix of MVFR ceilings/vsbys and occasional
IFR cigs for several more hours, followed by the low cloud deck
scattering out by late morning. By afternoon, clouds throughout
the FA should be limited to scattered CU/SC aoa 3kft.

Specifics for KSTL: Although hole has developed in cloud deck e of
KSTL, northerly low level trajectories should mean prevailing MVFR
ceilings aob 1500 ft through 15z, with lower stratus occasionally
producing vsbys 3-5sm and cigs 700-900ft. Believe there should be
a rapid improvement 16-17z, with scattered clouds aoa 3kft for the
afternoon hours.

Truett

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     53  72  63  76 /  10  20  10   5
Quincy          49  71  54  72 /  10  10   5   5
Columbia        53  74  59  74 /  30  40  20  10
Jefferson City  52  74  59  74 /  30  40  30  10
Salem           47  70  53  72 /  10  10   5   0
Farmington      50  70  55  73 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 162011
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
311 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

A weak s/w will approach the CWA late tonight bringing a chance
for storms to wrn and srn portions of the CWA late tonight.
Otherwise, expect clouds to continue to break up during the
afternoon and into the evening. Clouds are expected to build into
the region from the W tonight ahead of the s/w. Have trended twd
a compromise of guidance for wrn portions of the CWA and twd the
cooler guidance for ern portions. Latest guidance suggests FG will
develop late tonight impacting srn and ern portions of the CWA
where radiational cooling will be greatest.

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

(Wednesday through Friday)

Main concern continues to be rain chances tomorrow into tomorrow
night over mainly central and southeast Missouri.  GFS/NAM/ECMWF are
still in relatively good agreement in dropping a weak shortwave
trough across Missouri during the day tomorrow.  Each of these
models shows some weak low level moisture lingering across central
and southeast Missouri into Wednesday night, so will continue a
chance of showers and thunderstorms in this area.   This scenario is
depicted pretty well at least through 00Z by the reflectivity on the
NSSL WRF.  Thereafter will maintain a dry forecast Thursday and
Friday as a surface ridge moves across the area at the same time a
upper ridge builds in from the west.

Went on the cooler side of guidance for highs the next couple of
days given the easterly surface flow and it matches up better with
mixing down the 900mb temperatures.   Likewise followed the cooler
NAM MOS for lows.

(Saturday through next Tuesday)

While there is still some disagreement between the GFS/ECMWF
regarding the speed and depth of a trough that will pass through the
area this weekend, it still appears that the attendant cold front
will move through on Saturday night and early Sunday.  Will keep
chances of showers and thunderstorms going Saturday into Sunday.
Will keep Monday and Tuesday dry at this point as we will be on the
back side of the the upper trough, though the latest runs of the GFS
is showing a secondary through dropping down in the northwesterly
flow on Tuesday.  This is a new trend that the ECMWF is not
showing.  Still expect at or just above normal temperatures ahead of
the front on Saturday before they drop back below normal for early
next week given expected 850mb temperatures in the 6-9C
range.


Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

Over the past several hours the n edge of stratus deck has become
increasingly ragged, and at 1115z roughly stretched from just
south of KSPI to near KMHL with a secondary large hole developing
in the cloud deck over sw IL just east of STL metro area. Believe
these trends indicate that the drier air is beginning to make
inroads into the lower level moisture. The cloud deck will be
south of KUIN this morning, although some fog is still possible
with low t/td spreads. Low clouds have also exited KCOU which will
also make it susceptible to fog; however am also seeing a
westward expansion of the low cloud deck just e of KMYJ, so
believe that back edge of stratus may clip KCOU in the 14-15z
time frame. For STL metro sites have followed trends of obs in and
north of area, with a mix of MVFR ceilings/vsbys and occasional
IFR cigs for several more hours, followed by the low cloud deck
scattering out by late morning. By afternoon, clouds throughout
the FA should be limited to scattered CU/SC aoa 3kft.

Specifics for KSTL: Although hole has developed in cloud deck e of
KSTL, northerly low level trajectories should mean prevailing MVFR
ceilings aob 1500 ft through 15z, with lower stratus occasionally
producing vsbys 3-5sm and cigs 700-900ft. Believe there should be
a rapid improvement 16-17z, with scattered clouds aoa 3kft for the
afternoon hours.

Truett

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     53  72  63  76 /  10  20  10   5
Quincy          49  71  54  72 /  10  10   5   5
Columbia        53  74  59  74 /  30  40  20  10
Jefferson City  52  74  59  74 /  30  40  30  10
Salem           47  70  53  72 /  10  10   5   0
Farmington      50  70  55  73 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 162011
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
311 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

A weak s/w will approach the CWA late tonight bringing a chance
for storms to wrn and srn portions of the CWA late tonight.
Otherwise, expect clouds to continue to break up during the
afternoon and into the evening. Clouds are expected to build into
the region from the W tonight ahead of the s/w. Have trended twd
a compromise of guidance for wrn portions of the CWA and twd the
cooler guidance for ern portions. Latest guidance suggests FG will
develop late tonight impacting srn and ern portions of the CWA
where radiational cooling will be greatest.

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

(Wednesday through Friday)

Main concern continues to be rain chances tomorrow into tomorrow
night over mainly central and southeast Missouri.  GFS/NAM/ECMWF are
still in relatively good agreement in dropping a weak shortwave
trough across Missouri during the day tomorrow.  Each of these
models shows some weak low level moisture lingering across central
and southeast Missouri into Wednesday night, so will continue a
chance of showers and thunderstorms in this area.   This scenario is
depicted pretty well at least through 00Z by the reflectivity on the
NSSL WRF.  Thereafter will maintain a dry forecast Thursday and
Friday as a surface ridge moves across the area at the same time a
upper ridge builds in from the west.

Went on the cooler side of guidance for highs the next couple of
days given the easterly surface flow and it matches up better with
mixing down the 900mb temperatures.   Likewise followed the cooler
NAM MOS for lows.

(Saturday through next Tuesday)

While there is still some disagreement between the GFS/ECMWF
regarding the speed and depth of a trough that will pass through the
area this weekend, it still appears that the attendant cold front
will move through on Saturday night and early Sunday.  Will keep
chances of showers and thunderstorms going Saturday into Sunday.
Will keep Monday and Tuesday dry at this point as we will be on the
back side of the the upper trough, though the latest runs of the GFS
is showing a secondary through dropping down in the northwesterly
flow on Tuesday.  This is a new trend that the ECMWF is not
showing.  Still expect at or just above normal temperatures ahead of
the front on Saturday before they drop back below normal for early
next week given expected 850mb temperatures in the 6-9C
range.


Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

Over the past several hours the n edge of stratus deck has become
increasingly ragged, and at 1115z roughly stretched from just
south of KSPI to near KMHL with a secondary large hole developing
in the cloud deck over sw IL just east of STL metro area. Believe
these trends indicate that the drier air is beginning to make
inroads into the lower level moisture. The cloud deck will be
south of KUIN this morning, although some fog is still possible
with low t/td spreads. Low clouds have also exited KCOU which will
also make it susceptible to fog; however am also seeing a
westward expansion of the low cloud deck just e of KMYJ, so
believe that back edge of stratus may clip KCOU in the 14-15z
time frame. For STL metro sites have followed trends of obs in and
north of area, with a mix of MVFR ceilings/vsbys and occasional
IFR cigs for several more hours, followed by the low cloud deck
scattering out by late morning. By afternoon, clouds throughout
the FA should be limited to scattered CU/SC aoa 3kft.

Specifics for KSTL: Although hole has developed in cloud deck e of
KSTL, northerly low level trajectories should mean prevailing MVFR
ceilings aob 1500 ft through 15z, with lower stratus occasionally
producing vsbys 3-5sm and cigs 700-900ft. Believe there should be
a rapid improvement 16-17z, with scattered clouds aoa 3kft for the
afternoon hours.

Truett

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     53  72  63  76 /  10  20  10   5
Quincy          49  71  54  72 /  10  10   5   5
Columbia        53  74  59  74 /  30  40  20  10
Jefferson City  52  74  59  74 /  30  40  30  10
Salem           47  70  53  72 /  10  10   5   0
Farmington      50  70  55  73 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 162011
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
311 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

A weak s/w will approach the CWA late tonight bringing a chance
for storms to wrn and srn portions of the CWA late tonight.
Otherwise, expect clouds to continue to break up during the
afternoon and into the evening. Clouds are expected to build into
the region from the W tonight ahead of the s/w. Have trended twd
a compromise of guidance for wrn portions of the CWA and twd the
cooler guidance for ern portions. Latest guidance suggests FG will
develop late tonight impacting srn and ern portions of the CWA
where radiational cooling will be greatest.

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

(Wednesday through Friday)

Main concern continues to be rain chances tomorrow into tomorrow
night over mainly central and southeast Missouri.  GFS/NAM/ECMWF are
still in relatively good agreement in dropping a weak shortwave
trough across Missouri during the day tomorrow.  Each of these
models shows some weak low level moisture lingering across central
and southeast Missouri into Wednesday night, so will continue a
chance of showers and thunderstorms in this area.   This scenario is
depicted pretty well at least through 00Z by the reflectivity on the
NSSL WRF.  Thereafter will maintain a dry forecast Thursday and
Friday as a surface ridge moves across the area at the same time a
upper ridge builds in from the west.

Went on the cooler side of guidance for highs the next couple of
days given the easterly surface flow and it matches up better with
mixing down the 900mb temperatures.   Likewise followed the cooler
NAM MOS for lows.

(Saturday through next Tuesday)

While there is still some disagreement between the GFS/ECMWF
regarding the speed and depth of a trough that will pass through the
area this weekend, it still appears that the attendant cold front
will move through on Saturday night and early Sunday.  Will keep
chances of showers and thunderstorms going Saturday into Sunday.
Will keep Monday and Tuesday dry at this point as we will be on the
back side of the the upper trough, though the latest runs of the GFS
is showing a secondary through dropping down in the northwesterly
flow on Tuesday.  This is a new trend that the ECMWF is not
showing.  Still expect at or just above normal temperatures ahead of
the front on Saturday before they drop back below normal for early
next week given expected 850mb temperatures in the 6-9C
range.


Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

Over the past several hours the n edge of stratus deck has become
increasingly ragged, and at 1115z roughly stretched from just
south of KSPI to near KMHL with a secondary large hole developing
in the cloud deck over sw IL just east of STL metro area. Believe
these trends indicate that the drier air is beginning to make
inroads into the lower level moisture. The cloud deck will be
south of KUIN this morning, although some fog is still possible
with low t/td spreads. Low clouds have also exited KCOU which will
also make it susceptible to fog; however am also seeing a
westward expansion of the low cloud deck just e of KMYJ, so
believe that back edge of stratus may clip KCOU in the 14-15z
time frame. For STL metro sites have followed trends of obs in and
north of area, with a mix of MVFR ceilings/vsbys and occasional
IFR cigs for several more hours, followed by the low cloud deck
scattering out by late morning. By afternoon, clouds throughout
the FA should be limited to scattered CU/SC aoa 3kft.

Specifics for KSTL: Although hole has developed in cloud deck e of
KSTL, northerly low level trajectories should mean prevailing MVFR
ceilings aob 1500 ft through 15z, with lower stratus occasionally
producing vsbys 3-5sm and cigs 700-900ft. Believe there should be
a rapid improvement 16-17z, with scattered clouds aoa 3kft for the
afternoon hours.

Truett

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     53  72  63  76 /  10  20  10   5
Quincy          49  71  54  72 /  10  10   5   5
Columbia        53  74  59  74 /  30  40  20  10
Jefferson City  52  74  59  74 /  30  40  30  10
Salem           47  70  53  72 /  10  10   5   0
Farmington      50  70  55  73 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 162000
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
300 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A stalled front was currently located just to our south near the
I-40 corridor. Clouds for the most part have held on for most of
the area with the far northwestern areas being the exception. A
mid level impulse located near South Dakota this afternoon will
move across the area by early Wednesday morning. A modest low
level jet will develop late tonight with elevated CAPE values
between 1000 to 2000 J/KG. Effective shear will be around 35
knots.

A cluster of convection will develop around southeast Kansas and
western Missouri after 3 am tonight through the early morning
hours on Wednesday. Initial storm development could lead to a few
stronger updrafts and marginally severe hail. The threat area for
that by tomorrow morning will be west of Highway 65. Average QPF
from storms tonight through Wednesday night may be between half an
inch to an inch of rainfall with isolated higher amounts.

This first cluster of convection will move off to the southeast
and be dissipating by late morning to midday Wednesday. The
frontal boundary will be oriented from northwest to southeast
roughly southeast Kansas to the Branson area by tomorrow
afternoon. There is some uncertainty about the chances for any
afternoon convection tomorrow. Temperatures will also be tricky
with lower 70s far eastern Ozarks to the lower 80s across far
southwestern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Another subtle impulse will generate another cluster or scattered
convection Wednesday evening into Wednesday night over the area.
Again a few isolated stronger storms can not be ruled out with
marginally severe hail being the threat. Will keep the chance for
additional scattered convection on Thursday with the boundary in
the area.

Upper level ridging will build in late Thursday into Friday with a
modest warming trend for the end of the week. A trough will
develop over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest by Saturday.
This will bring down a Canadian cold front with a chance for
showers and storms again late Saturday into early on Sunday.

There were some questions about the left over energy and moisture
from the tropical system affecting the southwestern U.S. being
pulled up into the trough and central U.S. It appears the leftover
energy and plume of tropical moisture will remain just to our
southwest across the upper Red River Valley region from the latest
12z guidance. Something to keep an eye on but likely will not
bring us any heavy rainfall across the Ozarks region.

Cold front clears through on Sunday bring cooler and drier weather
for early next week just in time for Autumn to begin late next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Pilots can expect MVFR ceilings at area terminals for much of this
TAF period. Widespread stratus will linger through Wednesday
morning with only the possibility of partial clearing this
afternoon and evening.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late
tonight into Wednesday morning as a warm front lifts northward.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 162000
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
300 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A stalled front was currently located just to our south near the
I-40 corridor. Clouds for the most part have held on for most of
the area with the far northwestern areas being the exception. A
mid level impulse located near South Dakota this afternoon will
move across the area by early Wednesday morning. A modest low
level jet will develop late tonight with elevated CAPE values
between 1000 to 2000 J/KG. Effective shear will be around 35
knots.

A cluster of convection will develop around southeast Kansas and
western Missouri after 3 am tonight through the early morning
hours on Wednesday. Initial storm development could lead to a few
stronger updrafts and marginally severe hail. The threat area for
that by tomorrow morning will be west of Highway 65. Average QPF
from storms tonight through Wednesday night may be between half an
inch to an inch of rainfall with isolated higher amounts.

This first cluster of convection will move off to the southeast
and be dissipating by late morning to midday Wednesday. The
frontal boundary will be oriented from northwest to southeast
roughly southeast Kansas to the Branson area by tomorrow
afternoon. There is some uncertainty about the chances for any
afternoon convection tomorrow. Temperatures will also be tricky
with lower 70s far eastern Ozarks to the lower 80s across far
southwestern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Another subtle impulse will generate another cluster or scattered
convection Wednesday evening into Wednesday night over the area.
Again a few isolated stronger storms can not be ruled out with
marginally severe hail being the threat. Will keep the chance for
additional scattered convection on Thursday with the boundary in
the area.

Upper level ridging will build in late Thursday into Friday with a
modest warming trend for the end of the week. A trough will
develop over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest by Saturday.
This will bring down a Canadian cold front with a chance for
showers and storms again late Saturday into early on Sunday.

There were some questions about the left over energy and moisture
from the tropical system affecting the southwestern U.S. being
pulled up into the trough and central U.S. It appears the leftover
energy and plume of tropical moisture will remain just to our
southwest across the upper Red River Valley region from the latest
12z guidance. Something to keep an eye on but likely will not
bring us any heavy rainfall across the Ozarks region.

Cold front clears through on Sunday bring cooler and drier weather
for early next week just in time for Autumn to begin late next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Pilots can expect MVFR ceilings at area terminals for much of this
TAF period. Widespread stratus will linger through Wednesday
morning with only the possibility of partial clearing this
afternoon and evening.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late
tonight into Wednesday morning as a warm front lifts northward.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster






000
FXUS63 KLSX 161944
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
244 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

A weak s/w will approach the CWA late tonight bringing a chance
for storms to wrn and srn portions of the CWA late tonight.
Otherwise, expect clouds to continue to break up during the
afternoon and into the evening. Clouds are expected to build into
the region from the W tonight ahead of the s/w. Have trended twd
a compromise of guidance for wrn portions of the CWA and twd the
cooler guidance for ern portions. Latest guidance suggests FG will
develop late tonight impacting srn and ern portions of the CWA
where radiational cooling will be gratest.

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

Showers and storms may move into central MO late tonight due to
low-mid level warm air advection ahead of a weak northwest flow
shortwave, and as return flow on the backside of the surface ridge
shifting east of the region brings low level moisture and
instability back to southwest MO.  The potential for convection will
continue Wednesday and Wednesday night, mainly across central and
southeast MO along and north of a weak warm front.  A strong surface
ridge will build south southeastward through the Great Lakes region
Wednesday night and Thursday which should bring slightly drier and
more stable air southwestward into our region, likely ending the
threat for any convection even across the southwestern portion of
our forecast area Thursday and Thursday night.  Warmer temperatures
can be expected on Friday as an upper level ridge shifts eastward
into MO and southerly surface/low level flow strengthens over the
region.  Strong shortwaves will break down this upper level ridge
and send a cold front southeastward through our forecast area
Saturday night and Sunday morning.  This should lead to the best
chance of rain during this forecast period, beginning Saturday
afternoon and ending Sunday morning. Colder air will move into the
region behind this front, plus the ECMWF model also has deep upper
level troffing moving eastward through the northern Plains and
Great Lakes region Sunday and Sunday night resulting in below
normal temperatures to start the next work week. The GFS model is
a little slower with the upper level trough and hence also slower
bringing the coolest air into our region.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

Over the past several hours the n edge of stratus deck has become
increasingly ragged, and at 1115z roughly stretched from just
south of KSPI to near KMHL with a secondary large hole developing
in the cloud deck over sw IL just east of STL metro area. Believe
these trends indicate that the drier air is beginning to make
inroads into the lower level moisture. The cloud deck will be
south of KUIN this morning, although some fog is still possible
with low t/td spreads. Low clouds have also exited KCOU which will
also make it suspectable to fog; however am also seeing a
westward expansion of the low cloud deck just e of KMYJ, so
believe that back edge of stratus may clip KCOU in the 14-15z
time frame. For STL metro sites have followed trends of obs in and
north of area, with a mix of MVFR ceilings/vsbys and occasional
IFR cigs for several more hours, followed by the low cloud deck
scattering out by late morning. By afternoon, clouds throughout
the FA should be limited to scattered CU/SC aoa 3kft.

Specifics for KSTL: Although hole has developed in cloud deck e of
KSTL, northerly low level trajectories should mean prevailing MVFR
ceilings aob 1500 ft through 15z, with lower stratus occasionally
producing vsbys 3-5sm and cigs 700-900ft. Believe there should be
a rapid improvement 16-17z, with scattered clouds aoa 3kft for the
afternoon hours.

Truett

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     53  72  63  76 /  10  20  10   5
Quincy          49  71  54  72 /  10  10   5   5
Columbia        53  74  59  74 /  30  40  20  10
Jefferson City  52  74  59  74 /  30  40  30  10
Salem           47  70  53  72 /  10  10   5   0
Farmington      50  70  55  73 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 161934
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
234 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE INHERITED FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. LATE TONIGHT THE AREA SHOULD
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST COUPLED
WITH MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT / WARM AIR ADVECTION. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUPPORT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
OF THE STRONGER STORMS...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. THE BEST
CHANCES TO SEE PRECIP EXISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MID-MORNING HOURS BEFORE ANOTHER
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY A WARM FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MIX INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. AS WITH TONIGHT`S ACTIVITY THE BEST CHANCES OF
SEEING ANY PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. ON SATURDAY A DEEP TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AS IT DOES SOME OF THE
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE SYSTEM.
FURTHERMORE, MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
RATHER ROBUST THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY. DPROG/DT OF THE GFS AND EC
HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF AMOUNTS WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP REMAINING
WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. AT THIS TIME I STAYED THE COURSE OF A WETTER
SOLUTION BUT OBVIOUSLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR SHOULD THE LATEST DRIER
TRENDS CONTINUE. ON SUNDAY THE AREA CLEARS OUT WITH DRIER WEATHER AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR conditions through the afternoon ahead of a developing
frontal zone that will increase the cloud cover tonight. At this time
think the CIGS should remain VFR overnight but MVFR is not out of the
question. Near dawn isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are
anticipated to develop along and north of the frontal zone with the
chance for the precip to last well through the day on Wednesday. At
this time what does develop should be hit-or-miss so hence the VCSH
for this fcst issuance. The surface winds should be fairly steady out
of the southeast and under 15 kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Pietrycha







000
FXUS63 KEAX 161934
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
234 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE INHERITED FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. LATE TONIGHT THE AREA SHOULD
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST COUPLED
WITH MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT / WARM AIR ADVECTION. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUPPORT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
OF THE STRONGER STORMS...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. THE BEST
CHANCES TO SEE PRECIP EXISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MID-MORNING HOURS BEFORE ANOTHER
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY A WARM FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MIX INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. AS WITH TONIGHT`S ACTIVITY THE BEST CHANCES OF
SEEING ANY PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. ON SATURDAY A DEEP TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AS IT DOES SOME OF THE
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE SYSTEM.
FURTHERMORE, MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
RATHER ROBUST THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY. DPROG/DT OF THE GFS AND EC
HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF AMOUNTS WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP REMAINING
WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. AT THIS TIME I STAYED THE COURSE OF A WETTER
SOLUTION BUT OBVIOUSLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR SHOULD THE LATEST DRIER
TRENDS CONTINUE. ON SUNDAY THE AREA CLEARS OUT WITH DRIER WEATHER AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR conditions through the afternoon ahead of a developing
frontal zone that will increase the cloud cover tonight. At this time
think the CIGS should remain VFR overnight but MVFR is not out of the
question. Near dawn isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are
anticipated to develop along and north of the frontal zone with the
chance for the precip to last well through the day on Wednesday. At
this time what does develop should be hit-or-miss so hence the VCSH
for this fcst issuance. The surface winds should be fairly steady out
of the southeast and under 15 kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Pietrycha






000
FXUS63 KEAX 161748
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1248 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Fairly quiet today as high pressure remains in firm control of the
weather pattern. With this feature to our north...expect continued
northerly to northeasterly winds through the day which will help keep
temps anywhere between 5-10 degrees below normal. In general...highs
this afternoon should warm into the middle to upper 60s across most
areas...with low 70s possible across the far south and southwest. All
good things come to an end and that trend will start tonight as
yesterday/s frontal boundary begins to lift back north as a warm
front in a developing warm air advection regime. Quick look at
several isentropic surfaces reveals decent lift in the 300-305k layer
with condensation pressure deficits showing minimal lift required for
saturation. Meanwhile aloft...fcst models in excellent agreement that
a weak 850-hPa circulation will move overhead which combined with
passing mid-level shortwave energy and a modest 25-30 kt swrly
LLJ...should set the stage for redeveloping shwrs/storms during the
late evening and predawn hrs. Considering upper jet dynamics look
poor...have capped pops in the mid chc range across the western third
of the fcst area...with slgt chc largely reserved for areas east of
Route 65. Cannot rule out some isolated stronger storms as MUCAPE
values exceed 1000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear increases to roughly 30-35
kts. This combination could support a few elevated storms capable of
marginally severe hail.

On Wednesday...aforementioned frontal boundary to make little
eastward progress thanks to well entrenched high pressure across the
Ohio Vly/central Great Lakes. Continued northwest flow aloft will
allow additional shortwaves to traverse the area...however AM activity
should slowly slide south throughout the day as LLJ veers and weakens
through the period. Despite this...decent low-level frontogenesis
combined with diurnal instability will allow for additional activity
through the afternoon and thus maintained slgt chc-chc mention with
highs generally warming into the lower to middle 70s.

Much the same Wednesday night into Thursday as frontal boundary
remains in place. Overall precip coverage early Thursday morning
looks to be less than Wednesday as a much weaker LLJ interacts with
the stalled front. Have maintained chc mention overnight before
decreasing pops to slgt chc on Thursday. Temps should continue
rebounding Thursday as heights slowly build in advance of mid-level
low pressure developing over the western U.S. This should result in
mid to upper 70s across most areas...with a few low 80s not out of
question across the western third of the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Friday: Upper level ridging will build into the area on Friday, with
southerly winds and moisture returning. High temperatures on Friday
will be the warmest of the 7-day forecast, with readings reaching
the lower to middle 80s across the CWA.

Saturday/Saturday Night: The upper trough over the Pacific coast
will move into the central CONUS on Saturday, with the remnants of
the tropical system Odile projected to track across eastern Kansas
into central Missouri. A strong low-level jet will develop ahead of
these systems Friday night into Saturday morning, advecting deep
moisture northward. Forecast precipitable water values across the
CWA are expected to be near 2 inches, which is two standard
deviations above the climatological normal. Strong upper ascent from
the approaching trough combined with deep tropical moisture will
yield the potential for locally heavy rainfall for portions of the
forecast area Saturday into Saturday night, along and ahead of a
cold front. Average precipitation totals should range between
one-half to one inch, with locally higher amounts upwards of 1.50".
Specific rainfall totals and the location of the heaviest rainfall
will continue to be refined as the event approaches.

Sunday and beyond: Precipitation should shift out of the forecast
area by Sunday morning, with mostly sunny skies and northerly winds
behind a cold frontal passage. A large upper trough will amplify
over the eastern CONUS by early next work week, keeping the CWA in
northerly flow, and placing temperatures back into below normal
levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR conditions through the afternoon ahead of a developing
frontal zone that will increase the cloud cover tonight. At this time
think the CIGS should remain VFR overnight but MVFR is not out of the
question. Near dawn isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are
anticipated to develop along and north of the frontal zone with the
chance for the precip to last well through the day on Wednesday. At
this time what does develop should be hit-or-miss so hence the VCSH
for this fcst issuance. The surface winds should be fairly steady out
of the southeast and under 15 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Pietrycha






000
FXUS63 KEAX 161748
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1248 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Fairly quiet today as high pressure remains in firm control of the
weather pattern. With this feature to our north...expect continued
northerly to northeasterly winds through the day which will help keep
temps anywhere between 5-10 degrees below normal. In general...highs
this afternoon should warm into the middle to upper 60s across most
areas...with low 70s possible across the far south and southwest. All
good things come to an end and that trend will start tonight as
yesterday/s frontal boundary begins to lift back north as a warm
front in a developing warm air advection regime. Quick look at
several isentropic surfaces reveals decent lift in the 300-305k layer
with condensation pressure deficits showing minimal lift required for
saturation. Meanwhile aloft...fcst models in excellent agreement that
a weak 850-hPa circulation will move overhead which combined with
passing mid-level shortwave energy and a modest 25-30 kt swrly
LLJ...should set the stage for redeveloping shwrs/storms during the
late evening and predawn hrs. Considering upper jet dynamics look
poor...have capped pops in the mid chc range across the western third
of the fcst area...with slgt chc largely reserved for areas east of
Route 65. Cannot rule out some isolated stronger storms as MUCAPE
values exceed 1000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear increases to roughly 30-35
kts. This combination could support a few elevated storms capable of
marginally severe hail.

On Wednesday...aforementioned frontal boundary to make little
eastward progress thanks to well entrenched high pressure across the
Ohio Vly/central Great Lakes. Continued northwest flow aloft will
allow additional shortwaves to traverse the area...however AM activity
should slowly slide south throughout the day as LLJ veers and weakens
through the period. Despite this...decent low-level frontogenesis
combined with diurnal instability will allow for additional activity
through the afternoon and thus maintained slgt chc-chc mention with
highs generally warming into the lower to middle 70s.

Much the same Wednesday night into Thursday as frontal boundary
remains in place. Overall precip coverage early Thursday morning
looks to be less than Wednesday as a much weaker LLJ interacts with
the stalled front. Have maintained chc mention overnight before
decreasing pops to slgt chc on Thursday. Temps should continue
rebounding Thursday as heights slowly build in advance of mid-level
low pressure developing over the western U.S. This should result in
mid to upper 70s across most areas...with a few low 80s not out of
question across the western third of the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Friday: Upper level ridging will build into the area on Friday, with
southerly winds and moisture returning. High temperatures on Friday
will be the warmest of the 7-day forecast, with readings reaching
the lower to middle 80s across the CWA.

Saturday/Saturday Night: The upper trough over the Pacific coast
will move into the central CONUS on Saturday, with the remnants of
the tropical system Odile projected to track across eastern Kansas
into central Missouri. A strong low-level jet will develop ahead of
these systems Friday night into Saturday morning, advecting deep
moisture northward. Forecast precipitable water values across the
CWA are expected to be near 2 inches, which is two standard
deviations above the climatological normal. Strong upper ascent from
the approaching trough combined with deep tropical moisture will
yield the potential for locally heavy rainfall for portions of the
forecast area Saturday into Saturday night, along and ahead of a
cold front. Average precipitation totals should range between
one-half to one inch, with locally higher amounts upwards of 1.50".
Specific rainfall totals and the location of the heaviest rainfall
will continue to be refined as the event approaches.

Sunday and beyond: Precipitation should shift out of the forecast
area by Sunday morning, with mostly sunny skies and northerly winds
behind a cold frontal passage. A large upper trough will amplify
over the eastern CONUS by early next work week, keeping the CWA in
northerly flow, and placing temperatures back into below normal
levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR conditions through the afternoon ahead of a developing
frontal zone that will increase the cloud cover tonight. At this time
think the CIGS should remain VFR overnight but MVFR is not out of the
question. Near dawn isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are
anticipated to develop along and north of the frontal zone with the
chance for the precip to last well through the day on Wednesday. At
this time what does develop should be hit-or-miss so hence the VCSH
for this fcst issuance. The surface winds should be fairly steady out
of the southeast and under 15 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Pietrycha







000
FXUS63 KSGF 161742
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1242 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Wednesday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Post frontal low clouds over southern Kansas and roughly the
southern two thirds of MO continue and the main concern will be
how long the clouds hang on today. Used the NAM as a rough guess
for now which will keep clouds in for much of the day over far
southern MO. Some drizzle is likely occurring where the airport
obs visibility is reduced, and will maintain a mention of drizzle
into the daylight hours.

Sfc high pressure centered near the IA/MO border will shift off to
the east. Isentropic lift on the west side of the retreating sfc
high will develop over eastern KS/western MO tonight juxtaposed
with low level warm air and moisture advection with an overall
moistening of the atmosphere below 500mb. Decent vertical shear
with 500mb nw winds of 35-40kts by the end of the period along
with mu capes of 1000-2000 J/kg will lead to stronger elevated
storms with at least some potential for marginally severe hail
late tonight into Wednesday morning. Mesoscale and global models
are in fair agreement in developing a nw-se corridor of convection
from east central KS into sw MO. Definitely will be a mesoscale
phenomenon, so there is some play as to where this eventually sets
up, but in general took a model blend to generate pops and qpf
late tonight into Wednesday. Could be some pockets of heavier rain
amounts with training/back-building convection as the low level
jet veers Wed morning, but again hard to pinpoint.

Showers/tstms will linger in some areas through the day Wed.
Max temperatures will be affected by cloud cover (both today and
Wed) and will try to adjust downward a bit, but in general used a
model blend.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Additional convection will be possible late Wednesday/Wednesday
night, setting up a bit farther southwest. Frankly, it is a bit
of a roll of the dice where this will set up, being partially
based on how Wednesday`s convection evolves. Again, the same basic
environment of elevated instability/lift/vertical shear will be in
place for a cluster of convection to develop with some stronger
storm updrafts producing hail.

A progressive but fairly amplified 500mb pattern will exist
with an upper ridge axis approaching and moving through the area
Thu-Fri then shifting off to the east for Sat. Medium range
guidance is in fairly good agreement in bringing what is left of
the upper levels of TS Odile east and phasing it with an
approaching mid-latitude system over the upcoming weekend. Will
have fairly high pops mainly for Sat night and early Sunday. Could
be a decent shot of rain, but residence time of the system will be
fairly short with the progressive upper level trough. Dry weather
is then expected Monday with Canadian high pressure moving into
the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Pilots can expect MVFR ceilings at area terminals for much of this
TAF period. Widespread stratus will linger through Wednesday
morning with only the possibility of partial clearing this
afternoon and evening.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late
tonight into Wednesday morning as a warm front lifts northward.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 161742
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1242 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Wednesday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Post frontal low clouds over southern Kansas and roughly the
southern two thirds of MO continue and the main concern will be
how long the clouds hang on today. Used the NAM as a rough guess
for now which will keep clouds in for much of the day over far
southern MO. Some drizzle is likely occurring where the airport
obs visibility is reduced, and will maintain a mention of drizzle
into the daylight hours.

Sfc high pressure centered near the IA/MO border will shift off to
the east. Isentropic lift on the west side of the retreating sfc
high will develop over eastern KS/western MO tonight juxtaposed
with low level warm air and moisture advection with an overall
moistening of the atmosphere below 500mb. Decent vertical shear
with 500mb nw winds of 35-40kts by the end of the period along
with mu capes of 1000-2000 J/kg will lead to stronger elevated
storms with at least some potential for marginally severe hail
late tonight into Wednesday morning. Mesoscale and global models
are in fair agreement in developing a nw-se corridor of convection
from east central KS into sw MO. Definitely will be a mesoscale
phenomenon, so there is some play as to where this eventually sets
up, but in general took a model blend to generate pops and qpf
late tonight into Wednesday. Could be some pockets of heavier rain
amounts with training/back-building convection as the low level
jet veers Wed morning, but again hard to pinpoint.

Showers/tstms will linger in some areas through the day Wed.
Max temperatures will be affected by cloud cover (both today and
Wed) and will try to adjust downward a bit, but in general used a
model blend.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Additional convection will be possible late Wednesday/Wednesday
night, setting up a bit farther southwest. Frankly, it is a bit
of a roll of the dice where this will set up, being partially
based on how Wednesday`s convection evolves. Again, the same basic
environment of elevated instability/lift/vertical shear will be in
place for a cluster of convection to develop with some stronger
storm updrafts producing hail.

A progressive but fairly amplified 500mb pattern will exist
with an upper ridge axis approaching and moving through the area
Thu-Fri then shifting off to the east for Sat. Medium range
guidance is in fairly good agreement in bringing what is left of
the upper levels of TS Odile east and phasing it with an
approaching mid-latitude system over the upcoming weekend. Will
have fairly high pops mainly for Sat night and early Sunday. Could
be a decent shot of rain, but residence time of the system will be
fairly short with the progressive upper level trough. Dry weather
is then expected Monday with Canadian high pressure moving into
the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Pilots can expect MVFR ceilings at area terminals for much of this
TAF period. Widespread stratus will linger through Wednesday
morning with only the possibility of partial clearing this
afternoon and evening.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late
tonight into Wednesday morning as a warm front lifts northward.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Foster






000
FXUS63 KLSX 161157
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
657 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

Predawn low cloud imagery indicates that southward progress of
clearing line (near a Sante Fe-Barry line at 0745z) is agonizingly
slow, probably in part due to low level flow taking on a bit of an
eastward component.  Extrapolation of the back edge of the clouds
suggests clearing reaching a KVIH-KSTL-KMTO line by around 15z, with
forecast soundings then indicating the clearing accelerating across
the southeast half of the CWA during the late morning and early
afternoon due to combination of the southward advection of drier air
as well as fairly strong mid-September sunshine.  Will also continue
a mention of early morning patchy fog for those areas that are
expected to be mostly clear by 11z, as t/td spreads in northern
areas are fairly low.

Highs should be in the 60s over most of the FA.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

Showers and storms may move into central MO late tonight due to
low-mid level warm air advection ahead of a weak northwest flow
shortwave, and as return flow on the backside of the surface ridge
shifting east of the region brings low level moisture and
instability back to southwest MO.  The potential for convection will
continue Wednesday and Wednesday night, mainly across central and
southeast MO along and north of a weak warm front.  A strong surface
ridge will build south southeastward through the Great Lakes region
Wednesday night and Thursday which should bring slightly drier and
more stable air southwestward into our region, likely ending the
threat for any convection even across the southwestern portion of
our forecast area Thursday and Thursday night.  Warmer temperatures
can be expected on Friday as an upper level ridge shifts eastward
into MO and southerly surface/low level flow strengthens over the
region.  Strong shortwaves will break down this upper level ridge
and send a cold front southeastward through our forecast area
Saturday night and Sunday morning.  This should lead to the best
chance of rain during this forecast period, beginning Saturday
afternoon and ending Sunday morning. Colder air will move into the
region behind this front, plus the ECMWF model also has deep upper
level troffing moving eastward through the northern Plains and
Great Lakes region Sunday and Sunday night resulting in below
normal temperatures to start the next work week. The GFS model is
a little slower with the upper level trough and hence also slower
bringing the coolest air into our region.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

Over the past several hours the n edge of stratus deck has become
increasingly ragged, and at 1115z roughly stretched from just
south of KSPI to near KMHL with a secondary large hole developing
in the cloud deck over sw IL just east of STL metro area. Believe
these trends indicate that the drier air is beginning to make
inroads into the lower level moisture. The cloud deck will be
south of KUIN this morning, although some fog is still possible
with low t/td spreads. Low clouds have also exited KCOU which will
also make it suspectable to fog; however am also seeing a
westward expansion of the low cloud deck just e of KMYJ, so
believe that back edge of stratus may clip KCOU in the 14-15z
time frame. For STL metro sites have followed trends of obs in and
north of area, with a mix of MVFR ceilings/vsbys and occasional
IFR cigs for several more hours, followed by the low cloud deck
scattering out by late morning. By afternoon, clouds throughout
the FA should be limited to scattered CU/SC aoa 3kft.

Specifics for KSTL: Although hole has developed in cloud deck e of
KSTL, northerly low level trajectories should mean prevailing MVFR
ceilings aob 1500 ft through 15z, with lower stratus occasionally
producing vsbys 3-5sm and cigs 700-900ft. Believe there should be
a rapid improvement 16-17z, with scattered clouds aoa 3kft for the
afternoon hours.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 161157
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
657 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

Predawn low cloud imagery indicates that southward progress of
clearing line (near a Sante Fe-Barry line at 0745z) is agonizingly
slow, probably in part due to low level flow taking on a bit of an
eastward component.  Extrapolation of the back edge of the clouds
suggests clearing reaching a KVIH-KSTL-KMTO line by around 15z, with
forecast soundings then indicating the clearing accelerating across
the southeast half of the CWA during the late morning and early
afternoon due to combination of the southward advection of drier air
as well as fairly strong mid-September sunshine.  Will also continue
a mention of early morning patchy fog for those areas that are
expected to be mostly clear by 11z, as t/td spreads in northern
areas are fairly low.

Highs should be in the 60s over most of the FA.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

Showers and storms may move into central MO late tonight due to
low-mid level warm air advection ahead of a weak northwest flow
shortwave, and as return flow on the backside of the surface ridge
shifting east of the region brings low level moisture and
instability back to southwest MO.  The potential for convection will
continue Wednesday and Wednesday night, mainly across central and
southeast MO along and north of a weak warm front.  A strong surface
ridge will build south southeastward through the Great Lakes region
Wednesday night and Thursday which should bring slightly drier and
more stable air southwestward into our region, likely ending the
threat for any convection even across the southwestern portion of
our forecast area Thursday and Thursday night.  Warmer temperatures
can be expected on Friday as an upper level ridge shifts eastward
into MO and southerly surface/low level flow strengthens over the
region.  Strong shortwaves will break down this upper level ridge
and send a cold front southeastward through our forecast area
Saturday night and Sunday morning.  This should lead to the best
chance of rain during this forecast period, beginning Saturday
afternoon and ending Sunday morning. Colder air will move into the
region behind this front, plus the ECMWF model also has deep upper
level troffing moving eastward through the northern Plains and
Great Lakes region Sunday and Sunday night resulting in below
normal temperatures to start the next work week. The GFS model is
a little slower with the upper level trough and hence also slower
bringing the coolest air into our region.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

Over the past several hours the n edge of stratus deck has become
increasingly ragged, and at 1115z roughly stretched from just
south of KSPI to near KMHL with a secondary large hole developing
in the cloud deck over sw IL just east of STL metro area. Believe
these trends indicate that the drier air is beginning to make
inroads into the lower level moisture. The cloud deck will be
south of KUIN this morning, although some fog is still possible
with low t/td spreads. Low clouds have also exited KCOU which will
also make it suspectable to fog; however am also seeing a
westward expansion of the low cloud deck just e of KMYJ, so
believe that back edge of stratus may clip KCOU in the 14-15z
time frame. For STL metro sites have followed trends of obs in and
north of area, with a mix of MVFR ceilings/vsbys and occasional
IFR cigs for several more hours, followed by the low cloud deck
scattering out by late morning. By afternoon, clouds throughout
the FA should be limited to scattered CU/SC aoa 3kft.

Specifics for KSTL: Although hole has developed in cloud deck e of
KSTL, northerly low level trajectories should mean prevailing MVFR
ceilings aob 1500 ft through 15z, with lower stratus occasionally
producing vsbys 3-5sm and cigs 700-900ft. Believe there should be
a rapid improvement 16-17z, with scattered clouds aoa 3kft for the
afternoon hours.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 161157
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
657 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

Predawn low cloud imagery indicates that southward progress of
clearing line (near a Sante Fe-Barry line at 0745z) is agonizingly
slow, probably in part due to low level flow taking on a bit of an
eastward component.  Extrapolation of the back edge of the clouds
suggests clearing reaching a KVIH-KSTL-KMTO line by around 15z, with
forecast soundings then indicating the clearing accelerating across
the southeast half of the CWA during the late morning and early
afternoon due to combination of the southward advection of drier air
as well as fairly strong mid-September sunshine.  Will also continue
a mention of early morning patchy fog for those areas that are
expected to be mostly clear by 11z, as t/td spreads in northern
areas are fairly low.

Highs should be in the 60s over most of the FA.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

Showers and storms may move into central MO late tonight due to
low-mid level warm air advection ahead of a weak northwest flow
shortwave, and as return flow on the backside of the surface ridge
shifting east of the region brings low level moisture and
instability back to southwest MO.  The potential for convection will
continue Wednesday and Wednesday night, mainly across central and
southeast MO along and north of a weak warm front.  A strong surface
ridge will build south southeastward through the Great Lakes region
Wednesday night and Thursday which should bring slightly drier and
more stable air southwestward into our region, likely ending the
threat for any convection even across the southwestern portion of
our forecast area Thursday and Thursday night.  Warmer temperatures
can be expected on Friday as an upper level ridge shifts eastward
into MO and southerly surface/low level flow strengthens over the
region.  Strong shortwaves will break down this upper level ridge
and send a cold front southeastward through our forecast area
Saturday night and Sunday morning.  This should lead to the best
chance of rain during this forecast period, beginning Saturday
afternoon and ending Sunday morning. Colder air will move into the
region behind this front, plus the ECMWF model also has deep upper
level troffing moving eastward through the northern Plains and
Great Lakes region Sunday and Sunday night resulting in below
normal temperatures to start the next work week. The GFS model is
a little slower with the upper level trough and hence also slower
bringing the coolest air into our region.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

Over the past several hours the n edge of stratus deck has become
increasingly ragged, and at 1115z roughly stretched from just
south of KSPI to near KMHL with a secondary large hole developing
in the cloud deck over sw IL just east of STL metro area. Believe
these trends indicate that the drier air is beginning to make
inroads into the lower level moisture. The cloud deck will be
south of KUIN this morning, although some fog is still possible
with low t/td spreads. Low clouds have also exited KCOU which will
also make it suspectable to fog; however am also seeing a
westward expansion of the low cloud deck just e of KMYJ, so
believe that back edge of stratus may clip KCOU in the 14-15z
time frame. For STL metro sites have followed trends of obs in and
north of area, with a mix of MVFR ceilings/vsbys and occasional
IFR cigs for several more hours, followed by the low cloud deck
scattering out by late morning. By afternoon, clouds throughout
the FA should be limited to scattered CU/SC aoa 3kft.

Specifics for KSTL: Although hole has developed in cloud deck e of
KSTL, northerly low level trajectories should mean prevailing MVFR
ceilings aob 1500 ft through 15z, with lower stratus occasionally
producing vsbys 3-5sm and cigs 700-900ft. Believe there should be
a rapid improvement 16-17z, with scattered clouds aoa 3kft for the
afternoon hours.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 161157
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
657 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

Predawn low cloud imagery indicates that southward progress of
clearing line (near a Sante Fe-Barry line at 0745z) is agonizingly
slow, probably in part due to low level flow taking on a bit of an
eastward component.  Extrapolation of the back edge of the clouds
suggests clearing reaching a KVIH-KSTL-KMTO line by around 15z, with
forecast soundings then indicating the clearing accelerating across
the southeast half of the CWA during the late morning and early
afternoon due to combination of the southward advection of drier air
as well as fairly strong mid-September sunshine.  Will also continue
a mention of early morning patchy fog for those areas that are
expected to be mostly clear by 11z, as t/td spreads in northern
areas are fairly low.

Highs should be in the 60s over most of the FA.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

Showers and storms may move into central MO late tonight due to
low-mid level warm air advection ahead of a weak northwest flow
shortwave, and as return flow on the backside of the surface ridge
shifting east of the region brings low level moisture and
instability back to southwest MO.  The potential for convection will
continue Wednesday and Wednesday night, mainly across central and
southeast MO along and north of a weak warm front.  A strong surface
ridge will build south southeastward through the Great Lakes region
Wednesday night and Thursday which should bring slightly drier and
more stable air southwestward into our region, likely ending the
threat for any convection even across the southwestern portion of
our forecast area Thursday and Thursday night.  Warmer temperatures
can be expected on Friday as an upper level ridge shifts eastward
into MO and southerly surface/low level flow strengthens over the
region.  Strong shortwaves will break down this upper level ridge
and send a cold front southeastward through our forecast area
Saturday night and Sunday morning.  This should lead to the best
chance of rain during this forecast period, beginning Saturday
afternoon and ending Sunday morning. Colder air will move into the
region behind this front, plus the ECMWF model also has deep upper
level troffing moving eastward through the northern Plains and
Great Lakes region Sunday and Sunday night resulting in below
normal temperatures to start the next work week. The GFS model is
a little slower with the upper level trough and hence also slower
bringing the coolest air into our region.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

Over the past several hours the n edge of stratus deck has become
increasingly ragged, and at 1115z roughly stretched from just
south of KSPI to near KMHL with a secondary large hole developing
in the cloud deck over sw IL just east of STL metro area. Believe
these trends indicate that the drier air is beginning to make
inroads into the lower level moisture. The cloud deck will be
south of KUIN this morning, although some fog is still possible
with low t/td spreads. Low clouds have also exited KCOU which will
also make it suspectable to fog; however am also seeing a
westward expansion of the low cloud deck just e of KMYJ, so
believe that back edge of stratus may clip KCOU in the 14-15z
time frame. For STL metro sites have followed trends of obs in and
north of area, with a mix of MVFR ceilings/vsbys and occasional
IFR cigs for several more hours, followed by the low cloud deck
scattering out by late morning. By afternoon, clouds throughout
the FA should be limited to scattered CU/SC aoa 3kft.

Specifics for KSTL: Although hole has developed in cloud deck e of
KSTL, northerly low level trajectories should mean prevailing MVFR
ceilings aob 1500 ft through 15z, with lower stratus occasionally
producing vsbys 3-5sm and cigs 700-900ft. Believe there should be
a rapid improvement 16-17z, with scattered clouds aoa 3kft for the
afternoon hours.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 161141
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
641 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Wednesday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Post frontal low clouds over southern Kansas and roughly the
southern two thirds of MO continue and the main concern will be
how long the clouds hang on today. Used the NAM as a rough guess
for now which will keep clouds in for much of the day over far
southern MO. Some drizzle is likely occurring where the airport
obs visibility is reduced, and will maintain a mention of drizzle
into the daylight hours.

Sfc high pressure centered near the IA/MO border will shift off to
the east. Isentropic lift on the west side of the retreating sfc
high will develop over eastern KS/western MO tonight juxtaposed
with low level warm air and moisture advection with an overall
moistening of the atmosphere below 500mb. Decent vertical shear
with 500mb nw winds of 35-40kts by the end of the period along
with mu capes of 1000-2000 J/kg will lead to stronger elevated
storms with at least some potential for marginally severe hail
late tonight into Wednesday morning. Mesoscale and global models
are in fair agreement in developing a nw-se corridor of convection
from east central KS into sw MO. Definitely will be a mesoscale
phenomenon, so there is some play as to where this eventually sets
up, but in general took a model blend to generate pops and qpf
late tonight into Wednesday. Could be some pockets of heavier rain
amounts with training/back-building convection as the low level
jet veers Wed morning, but again hard to pinpoint.

Showers/tstms will linger in some areas through the day Wed.
Max temperatures will be affected by cloud cover (both today and
Wed) and will try to adjust downward a bit, but in general used a
model blend.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Additional convection will be possible late Wednesday/Wednesday
night, setting up a bit farther southwest. Frankly, it is a bit
of a roll of the dice where this will set up, being partially
based on how Wednesday`s convection evolves. Again, the same basic
environment of elevated instability/lift/vertical shear will be in
place for a cluster of convection to develop with some stronger
storm updrafts producing hail.

A progressive but fairly amplified 500mb pattern will exist
with an upper ridge axis approaching and moving through the area
Thu-Fri then shifting off to the east for Sat. Medium range
guidance is in fairly good agreement in bringing what is left of
the upper levels of TS Odile east and phasing it with an
approaching mid-latitude system over the upcoming weekend. Will
have fairly high pops mainly for Sat night and early Sunday. Could
be a decent shot of rain, but residence time of the system will be
fairly short with the progressive upper level trough. Dry weather
is then expected Monday with Canadian high pressure moving into
the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Cloud cover in place across the region behind a cold front that
moved through last night will keep the region in MVFR ceilings
through much of the day. Ceilings should lift to VFR this evening
for much of the overnight. A return of MVFR ceilings is expected
for around sunrise on Wednesday. Some convection is possible
across western Missouri late this evening into the overnight, and
have included VCTS for the Joplin aerodrome. Will need to monitor
trends later today before including terminals farther east.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch






000
FXUS63 KEAX 161132
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
632 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Fairly quiet today as high pressure remains in firm control of the
weather pattern. With this feature to our north...expect continued
northerly to northeasterly winds through the day which will help keep
temps anywhere between 5-10 degrees below normal. In general...highs
this afternoon should warm into the middle to upper 60s across most
areas...with low 70s possible across the far south and southwest. All
good things come to an end and that trend will start tonight as
yesterday/s frontal boundary begins to lift back north as a warm
front in a developing warm air advection regime. Quick look at
several isentropic surfaces reveals decent lift in the 300-305k layer
with condensation pressure deficits showing minimal lift required for
saturation. Meanwhile aloft...fcst models in excellent agreement that
a weak 850-hPa circulation will move overhead which combined with
passing mid-level shortwave energy and a modest 25-30 kt swrly
LLJ...should set the stage for redeveloping shwrs/storms during the
late evening and predawn hrs. Considering upper jet dynamics look
poor...have capped pops in the mid chc range across the western third
of the fcst area...with slgt chc largely reserved for areas east of
Route 65. Cannot rule out some isolated stronger storms as MUCAPE
values exceed 1000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear increases to roughly 30-35
kts. This combination could support a few elevated storms capable of
marginally severe hail.

On Wednesday...aforementioned frontal boundary to make little
eastward progress thanks to well entrenched high pressure across the
Ohio Vly/central Great Lakes. Continued northwest flow aloft will
allow additional shortwaves to traverse the area...however AM activity
should slowly slide south throughout the day as LLJ veers and weakens
through the period. Despite this...decent low-level frontogenesis
combined with diurnal instability will allow for additional activity
through the afternoon and thus maintained slgt chc-chc mention with
highs generally warming into the lower to middle 70s.

Much the same Wednesday night into Thursday as frontal boundary
remains in place. Overall precip coverage early Thursday morning
looks to be less than Wednesday as a much weaker LLJ interacts with
the stalled front. Have maintained chc mention overnight before
decreasing pops to slgt chc on Thursday. Temps should continue
rebounding Thursday as heights slowly build in advance of mid-level
low pressure developing over the western U.S. This should result in
mid to upper 70s across most areas...with a few low 80s not out of
question across the western third of the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Friday: Upper level ridging will build into the area on Friday, with
southerly winds and moisture returning. High temperatures on Friday
will be the warmest of the 7-day forecast, with readings reaching
the lower to middle 80s across the CWA.

Saturday/Saturday Night: The upper trough over the Pacific coast
will move into the central CONUS on Saturday, with the remnants of
the tropical system Odile projected to track across eastern Kansas
into central Missouri. A strong low-level jet will develop ahead of
these systems Friday night into Saturday morning, advecting deep
moisture northward. Forecast precipitable water values across the
CWA are expected to be near 2 inches, which is two standard
deviations above the climatological normal. Strong upper ascent from
the approaching trough combined with deep tropical moisture will
yield the potential for locally heavy rainfall for portions of the
forecast area Saturday into Saturday night, along and ahead of a
cold front. Average precipitation totals should range between
one-half to one inch, with locally higher amounts upwards of 1.50".
Specific rainfall totals and the location of the heaviest rainfall
will continue to be refined as the event approaches.

Sunday and beyond: Precipitation should shift out of the forecast
area by Sunday morning, with mostly sunny skies and northerly winds
behind a cold frontal passage. A large upper trough will amplify
over the eastern CONUS by early next work week, keeping the CWA in
northerly flow, and placing temperatures back into below normal
levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Early morning radiation fog at STJ will quickly burn off by 14z as the
daytime heating cycle commences. In its wake...VFR conditions to
dominate through much of the day as high pressure slowly slides east
of the region. Clouds will be on the increase overnight as a frontal
boundary lifts north towards the area. Fcst models show developing
convection after 6z...however will leave mention out for now based
on distance into the fcst period. Winds through the period will
remain from the east between 4-8 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...32






000
FXUS63 KLSX 160839
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
339 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

Predawn low cloud imagery indicates that southward progress of
clearing line (near a Sante Fe-Barry line at 0745z) is agonizingly
slow, probably in part due to low level flow taking on a bit of an
eastward component.  Extrapolation of the back edge of the clouds
suggests clearing reaching a KVIH-KSTL-KMTO line by around 15z, with
forecast soundings then indicating the clearing accelerating across
the southeast half of the CWA during the late morning and early
afternoon due to combination of the southward advection of drier air
as well as fairly strong mid-September sunshine.  Will also continue
a mention of early morning patchy fog for those areas that are
expected to be mostly clear by 11z, as t/td spreads in northern
areas are fairly low.

Highs should be in the 60s over most of the FA.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

Showers and storms may move into central MO late tonight due to
low-mid level warm air advection ahead of a weak northwest flow
shortwave, and as return flow on the backside of the surface ridge
shifting east of the region brings low level moisture and
instability back to southwest MO.  The potential for convection will
continue Wednesday and Wednesday night, mainly across central and
southeast MO along and north of a weak warm front.  A strong surface
ridge will build south southeastward through the Great Lakes region
Wednesday night and Thursday which should bring slightly drier and
more stable air southwestward into our region, likely ending the
threat for any convection even across the southwestern portion of
our forecast area Thursday and Thursday night.  Warmer temperatures
can be expected on Friday as an upper level ridge shifts eastward
into MO and southerly surface/low level flow strengthens over the
region.  Strong shortwaves will break down this upper level ridge
and send a cold front southeastward through our forecast area
Saturday night and Sunday morning.  This should lead to the best
chance of rain during this forecast period, beginning Saturday
afternoon and ending Sunday morning. Colder air will move into the
region behind this front, plus the ECMWF model also has deep upper
level troffing moving eastward through the northern Plains and
Great Lakes region Sunday and Sunday night resulting in below
normal temperatures to start the next work week. The GFS model is
a little slower with the upper level trough and hence also slower
bringing the coolest air into our region.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

MVFR Ceilings will continue to clear slowly from the north. Where
the sky becomes clear tonight, expect fog develop. Unsure how
dense the fog will be, but low end MVFR/IFR is certainly possible.
Further south across central and east central Missouri as well as
southwest Illinois and southeast Missouri, expect MVFR cigs to
prevail for the rest of the night...and likely lowering to IFR
ceilings in places along and south of the I-70 corridor. Low end
MVFR and IFR cigs will prevail until sunrise when ceilings should
lift and scatter by mid-late morning.

Specifics for KSTL:

Expect MVFR ceilings to lower to IFR before sunrise Tuesday
morning. Latest thinking is that the ceilings won`t be as low as
previously forecast, but still AOB 900FT. The timing of the
lowering is still uncertain as well, but feel it should be down to
IFR by 09Z-10Z. Ceilings should lift and scatter by mid-late
morning Tuesday with VFR conditions to prevail after.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 160839
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
339 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

Predawn low cloud imagery indicates that southward progress of
clearing line (near a Sante Fe-Barry line at 0745z) is agonizingly
slow, probably in part due to low level flow taking on a bit of an
eastward component.  Extrapolation of the back edge of the clouds
suggests clearing reaching a KVIH-KSTL-KMTO line by around 15z, with
forecast soundings then indicating the clearing accelerating across
the southeast half of the CWA during the late morning and early
afternoon due to combination of the southward advection of drier air
as well as fairly strong mid-September sunshine.  Will also continue
a mention of early morning patchy fog for those areas that are
expected to be mostly clear by 11z, as t/td spreads in northern
areas are fairly low.

Highs should be in the 60s over most of the FA.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

Showers and storms may move into central MO late tonight due to
low-mid level warm air advection ahead of a weak northwest flow
shortwave, and as return flow on the backside of the surface ridge
shifting east of the region brings low level moisture and
instability back to southwest MO.  The potential for convection will
continue Wednesday and Wednesday night, mainly across central and
southeast MO along and north of a weak warm front.  A strong surface
ridge will build south southeastward through the Great Lakes region
Wednesday night and Thursday which should bring slightly drier and
more stable air southwestward into our region, likely ending the
threat for any convection even across the southwestern portion of
our forecast area Thursday and Thursday night.  Warmer temperatures
can be expected on Friday as an upper level ridge shifts eastward
into MO and southerly surface/low level flow strengthens over the
region.  Strong shortwaves will break down this upper level ridge
and send a cold front southeastward through our forecast area
Saturday night and Sunday morning.  This should lead to the best
chance of rain during this forecast period, beginning Saturday
afternoon and ending Sunday morning. Colder air will move into the
region behind this front, plus the ECMWF model also has deep upper
level troffing moving eastward through the northern Plains and
Great Lakes region Sunday and Sunday night resulting in below
normal temperatures to start the next work week. The GFS model is
a little slower with the upper level trough and hence also slower
bringing the coolest air into our region.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

MVFR Ceilings will continue to clear slowly from the north. Where
the sky becomes clear tonight, expect fog develop. Unsure how
dense the fog will be, but low end MVFR/IFR is certainly possible.
Further south across central and east central Missouri as well as
southwest Illinois and southeast Missouri, expect MVFR cigs to
prevail for the rest of the night...and likely lowering to IFR
ceilings in places along and south of the I-70 corridor. Low end
MVFR and IFR cigs will prevail until sunrise when ceilings should
lift and scatter by mid-late morning.

Specifics for KSTL:

Expect MVFR ceilings to lower to IFR before sunrise Tuesday
morning. Latest thinking is that the ceilings won`t be as low as
previously forecast, but still AOB 900FT. The timing of the
lowering is still uncertain as well, but feel it should be down to
IFR by 09Z-10Z. Ceilings should lift and scatter by mid-late
morning Tuesday with VFR conditions to prevail after.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 160839
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
339 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

Predawn low cloud imagery indicates that southward progress of
clearing line (near a Sante Fe-Barry line at 0745z) is agonizingly
slow, probably in part due to low level flow taking on a bit of an
eastward component.  Extrapolation of the back edge of the clouds
suggests clearing reaching a KVIH-KSTL-KMTO line by around 15z, with
forecast soundings then indicating the clearing accelerating across
the southeast half of the CWA during the late morning and early
afternoon due to combination of the southward advection of drier air
as well as fairly strong mid-September sunshine.  Will also continue
a mention of early morning patchy fog for those areas that are
expected to be mostly clear by 11z, as t/td spreads in northern
areas are fairly low.

Highs should be in the 60s over most of the FA.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

Showers and storms may move into central MO late tonight due to
low-mid level warm air advection ahead of a weak northwest flow
shortwave, and as return flow on the backside of the surface ridge
shifting east of the region brings low level moisture and
instability back to southwest MO.  The potential for convection will
continue Wednesday and Wednesday night, mainly across central and
southeast MO along and north of a weak warm front.  A strong surface
ridge will build south southeastward through the Great Lakes region
Wednesday night and Thursday which should bring slightly drier and
more stable air southwestward into our region, likely ending the
threat for any convection even across the southwestern portion of
our forecast area Thursday and Thursday night.  Warmer temperatures
can be expected on Friday as an upper level ridge shifts eastward
into MO and southerly surface/low level flow strengthens over the
region.  Strong shortwaves will break down this upper level ridge
and send a cold front southeastward through our forecast area
Saturday night and Sunday morning.  This should lead to the best
chance of rain during this forecast period, beginning Saturday
afternoon and ending Sunday morning. Colder air will move into the
region behind this front, plus the ECMWF model also has deep upper
level troffing moving eastward through the northern Plains and
Great Lakes region Sunday and Sunday night resulting in below
normal temperatures to start the next work week. The GFS model is
a little slower with the upper level trough and hence also slower
bringing the coolest air into our region.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

MVFR Ceilings will continue to clear slowly from the north. Where
the sky becomes clear tonight, expect fog develop. Unsure how
dense the fog will be, but low end MVFR/IFR is certainly possible.
Further south across central and east central Missouri as well as
southwest Illinois and southeast Missouri, expect MVFR cigs to
prevail for the rest of the night...and likely lowering to IFR
ceilings in places along and south of the I-70 corridor. Low end
MVFR and IFR cigs will prevail until sunrise when ceilings should
lift and scatter by mid-late morning.

Specifics for KSTL:

Expect MVFR ceilings to lower to IFR before sunrise Tuesday
morning. Latest thinking is that the ceilings won`t be as low as
previously forecast, but still AOB 900FT. The timing of the
lowering is still uncertain as well, but feel it should be down to
IFR by 09Z-10Z. Ceilings should lift and scatter by mid-late
morning Tuesday with VFR conditions to prevail after.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 160839
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
339 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

Predawn low cloud imagery indicates that southward progress of
clearing line (near a Sante Fe-Barry line at 0745z) is agonizingly
slow, probably in part due to low level flow taking on a bit of an
eastward component.  Extrapolation of the back edge of the clouds
suggests clearing reaching a KVIH-KSTL-KMTO line by around 15z, with
forecast soundings then indicating the clearing accelerating across
the southeast half of the CWA during the late morning and early
afternoon due to combination of the southward advection of drier air
as well as fairly strong mid-September sunshine.  Will also continue
a mention of early morning patchy fog for those areas that are
expected to be mostly clear by 11z, as t/td spreads in northern
areas are fairly low.

Highs should be in the 60s over most of the FA.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

Showers and storms may move into central MO late tonight due to
low-mid level warm air advection ahead of a weak northwest flow
shortwave, and as return flow on the backside of the surface ridge
shifting east of the region brings low level moisture and
instability back to southwest MO.  The potential for convection will
continue Wednesday and Wednesday night, mainly across central and
southeast MO along and north of a weak warm front.  A strong surface
ridge will build south southeastward through the Great Lakes region
Wednesday night and Thursday which should bring slightly drier and
more stable air southwestward into our region, likely ending the
threat for any convection even across the southwestern portion of
our forecast area Thursday and Thursday night.  Warmer temperatures
can be expected on Friday as an upper level ridge shifts eastward
into MO and southerly surface/low level flow strengthens over the
region.  Strong shortwaves will break down this upper level ridge
and send a cold front southeastward through our forecast area
Saturday night and Sunday morning.  This should lead to the best
chance of rain during this forecast period, beginning Saturday
afternoon and ending Sunday morning. Colder air will move into the
region behind this front, plus the ECMWF model also has deep upper
level troffing moving eastward through the northern Plains and
Great Lakes region Sunday and Sunday night resulting in below
normal temperatures to start the next work week. The GFS model is
a little slower with the upper level trough and hence also slower
bringing the coolest air into our region.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

MVFR Ceilings will continue to clear slowly from the north. Where
the sky becomes clear tonight, expect fog develop. Unsure how
dense the fog will be, but low end MVFR/IFR is certainly possible.
Further south across central and east central Missouri as well as
southwest Illinois and southeast Missouri, expect MVFR cigs to
prevail for the rest of the night...and likely lowering to IFR
ceilings in places along and south of the I-70 corridor. Low end
MVFR and IFR cigs will prevail until sunrise when ceilings should
lift and scatter by mid-late morning.

Specifics for KSTL:

Expect MVFR ceilings to lower to IFR before sunrise Tuesday
morning. Latest thinking is that the ceilings won`t be as low as
previously forecast, but still AOB 900FT. The timing of the
lowering is still uncertain as well, but feel it should be down to
IFR by 09Z-10Z. Ceilings should lift and scatter by mid-late
morning Tuesday with VFR conditions to prevail after.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 160835
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
335 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Fairly quiet today as high pressure remains in firm control of the
weather pattern. With this feature to our north...expect continued
northerly to northeasterly winds through the day which will help keep
temps anywhere between 5-10 degrees below normal. In general...highs
this afternoon should warm into the middle to upper 60s across most
areas...with low 70s possible across the far south and southwest. All
good things come to an end and that trend will start tonight as
yesterday/s frontal boundary begins to lift back north as a warm
front in a developing warm air advection regime. Quick look at
several isentropic surfaces reveals decent lift in the 300-305k layer
with condensation pressure deficits showing minimal lift required for
saturation. Meanwhile aloft...fcst models in excellent agreement that
a weak 850-hPa circulation will move overhead which combined with
passing mid-level shortwave energy and a modest 25-30 kt swrly
LLJ...should set the stage for redeveloping shwrs/storms during the
late evening and predawn hrs. Considering upper jet dynamics look
poor...have capped pops in the mid chc range across the western third
of the fcst area...with slgt chc largely reserved for areas east of
Route 65. Cannot rule out some isolated stronger storms as MUCAPE
values exceed 1000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear increases to roughly 30-35
kts. This combination could support a few elevated storms capable of
marginally severe hail.

On Wednesday...aforementioned frontal boundary to make little
eastward progress thanks to well entrenched high pressure across the
Ohio Vly/central Great Lakes. Continued northwest flow aloft will
allow additional shortwaves to traverse the area...however AM activity
should slowly slide south throughout the day as LLJ veers and weakens
through the period. Despite this...decent low-level frontogenesis
combined with diurnal instability will allow for additional activity
through the afternoon and thus maintained slgt chc-chc mention with
highs generally warming into the lower to middle 70s.

Much the same Wednesday night into Thursday as frontal boundary
remains in place. Overall precip coverage early Thursday morning
looks to be less than Wednesday as a much weaker LLJ interacts with
the stalled front. Have maintained chc mention overnight before
decreasing pops to slgt chc on Thursday. Temps should continue
rebounding Thursday as heights slowly build in advance of mid-level
low pressure developing over the western U.S. This should result in
mid to upper 70s across most areas...with a few low 80s not out of
question across the western third of the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Friday: Upper level ridging will build into the area on Friday, with
southerly winds and moisture returning. High temperatures on Friday
will be the warmest of the 7-day forecast, with readings reaching
the lower to middle 80s across the CWA.

Saturday/Saturday Night: The upper trough over the Pacific coast
will move into the central CONUS on Saturday, with the remnants of
the tropical system Odile projected to track across eastern Kansas
into central Missouri. A strong low-level jet will develop ahead of
these systems Friday night into Saturday morning, advecting deep
moisture northward. Forecast precipitable water values across the
CWA are expected to be near 2 inches, which is two standard
deviations above the climatological normal. Strong upper ascent from
the approaching trough combined with deep tropical moisture will
yield the potential for locally heavy rainfall for portions of the
forecast area Saturday into Saturday night, along and ahead of a
cold front. Average precipitation totals should range between
one-half to one inch, with locally higher amounts upwards of 1.50".
Specific rainfall totals and the location of the heaviest rainfall
will continue to be refined as the event approaches.

Sunday and beyond: Precipitation should shift out of the forecast
area by Sunday morning, with mostly sunny skies and northerly winds
behind a cold frontal passage. A large upper trough will amplify
over the eastern CONUS by early next work week, keeping the CWA in
northerly flow, and placing temperatures back into below normal
levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

The main concern for aviators during the TAF period will be the
potential for fog this morning. There are still a few clouds around
4kft at the terminals at the beginning of the TAF period but skies
will cont to clr and with light winds...for should begin to develop
around 09Z. This is supported by NAM and GFS MOS guidance as well as
the GFS LAMP and NAM Bufr soundings. Vsbys should drop to 5SM with a
period of dense fog possible at MCI and STJ btn 10Z-13Z where vsbys
may be temporarily be reduced to 1/2SM. Fog is expected to burn off
btn 13Z-14Z as winds pick up to around 5-10kts out of the SE.
Otrw...expect VFR conds through the remainder of the TAF period with clr
skies.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...73






000
FXUS63 KEAX 160835
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
335 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Fairly quiet today as high pressure remains in firm control of the
weather pattern. With this feature to our north...expect continued
northerly to northeasterly winds through the day which will help keep
temps anywhere between 5-10 degrees below normal. In general...highs
this afternoon should warm into the middle to upper 60s across most
areas...with low 70s possible across the far south and southwest. All
good things come to an end and that trend will start tonight as
yesterday/s frontal boundary begins to lift back north as a warm
front in a developing warm air advection regime. Quick look at
several isentropic surfaces reveals decent lift in the 300-305k layer
with condensation pressure deficits showing minimal lift required for
saturation. Meanwhile aloft...fcst models in excellent agreement that
a weak 850-hPa circulation will move overhead which combined with
passing mid-level shortwave energy and a modest 25-30 kt swrly
LLJ...should set the stage for redeveloping shwrs/storms during the
late evening and predawn hrs. Considering upper jet dynamics look
poor...have capped pops in the mid chc range across the western third
of the fcst area...with slgt chc largely reserved for areas east of
Route 65. Cannot rule out some isolated stronger storms as MUCAPE
values exceed 1000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear increases to roughly 30-35
kts. This combination could support a few elevated storms capable of
marginally severe hail.

On Wednesday...aforementioned frontal boundary to make little
eastward progress thanks to well entrenched high pressure across the
Ohio Vly/central Great Lakes. Continued northwest flow aloft will
allow additional shortwaves to traverse the area...however AM activity
should slowly slide south throughout the day as LLJ veers and weakens
through the period. Despite this...decent low-level frontogenesis
combined with diurnal instability will allow for additional activity
through the afternoon and thus maintained slgt chc-chc mention with
highs generally warming into the lower to middle 70s.

Much the same Wednesday night into Thursday as frontal boundary
remains in place. Overall precip coverage early Thursday morning
looks to be less than Wednesday as a much weaker LLJ interacts with
the stalled front. Have maintained chc mention overnight before
decreasing pops to slgt chc on Thursday. Temps should continue
rebounding Thursday as heights slowly build in advance of mid-level
low pressure developing over the western U.S. This should result in
mid to upper 70s across most areas...with a few low 80s not out of
question across the western third of the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Friday: Upper level ridging will build into the area on Friday, with
southerly winds and moisture returning. High temperatures on Friday
will be the warmest of the 7-day forecast, with readings reaching
the lower to middle 80s across the CWA.

Saturday/Saturday Night: The upper trough over the Pacific coast
will move into the central CONUS on Saturday, with the remnants of
the tropical system Odile projected to track across eastern Kansas
into central Missouri. A strong low-level jet will develop ahead of
these systems Friday night into Saturday morning, advecting deep
moisture northward. Forecast precipitable water values across the
CWA are expected to be near 2 inches, which is two standard
deviations above the climatological normal. Strong upper ascent from
the approaching trough combined with deep tropical moisture will
yield the potential for locally heavy rainfall for portions of the
forecast area Saturday into Saturday night, along and ahead of a
cold front. Average precipitation totals should range between
one-half to one inch, with locally higher amounts upwards of 1.50".
Specific rainfall totals and the location of the heaviest rainfall
will continue to be refined as the event approaches.

Sunday and beyond: Precipitation should shift out of the forecast
area by Sunday morning, with mostly sunny skies and northerly winds
behind a cold frontal passage. A large upper trough will amplify
over the eastern CONUS by early next work week, keeping the CWA in
northerly flow, and placing temperatures back into below normal
levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

The main concern for aviators during the TAF period will be the
potential for fog this morning. There are still a few clouds around
4kft at the terminals at the beginning of the TAF period but skies
will cont to clr and with light winds...for should begin to develop
around 09Z. This is supported by NAM and GFS MOS guidance as well as
the GFS LAMP and NAM Bufr soundings. Vsbys should drop to 5SM with a
period of dense fog possible at MCI and STJ btn 10Z-13Z where vsbys
may be temporarily be reduced to 1/2SM. Fog is expected to burn off
btn 13Z-14Z as winds pick up to around 5-10kts out of the SE.
Otrw...expect VFR conds through the remainder of the TAF period with clr
skies.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...73






000
FXUS63 KEAX 160835
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
335 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Fairly quiet today as high pressure remains in firm control of the
weather pattern. With this feature to our north...expect continued
northerly to northeasterly winds through the day which will help keep
temps anywhere between 5-10 degrees below normal. In general...highs
this afternoon should warm into the middle to upper 60s across most
areas...with low 70s possible across the far south and southwest. All
good things come to an end and that trend will start tonight as
yesterday/s frontal boundary begins to lift back north as a warm
front in a developing warm air advection regime. Quick look at
several isentropic surfaces reveals decent lift in the 300-305k layer
with condensation pressure deficits showing minimal lift required for
saturation. Meanwhile aloft...fcst models in excellent agreement that
a weak 850-hPa circulation will move overhead which combined with
passing mid-level shortwave energy and a modest 25-30 kt swrly
LLJ...should set the stage for redeveloping shwrs/storms during the
late evening and predawn hrs. Considering upper jet dynamics look
poor...have capped pops in the mid chc range across the western third
of the fcst area...with slgt chc largely reserved for areas east of
Route 65. Cannot rule out some isolated stronger storms as MUCAPE
values exceed 1000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear increases to roughly 30-35
kts. This combination could support a few elevated storms capable of
marginally severe hail.

On Wednesday...aforementioned frontal boundary to make little
eastward progress thanks to well entrenched high pressure across the
Ohio Vly/central Great Lakes. Continued northwest flow aloft will
allow additional shortwaves to traverse the area...however AM activity
should slowly slide south throughout the day as LLJ veers and weakens
through the period. Despite this...decent low-level frontogenesis
combined with diurnal instability will allow for additional activity
through the afternoon and thus maintained slgt chc-chc mention with
highs generally warming into the lower to middle 70s.

Much the same Wednesday night into Thursday as frontal boundary
remains in place. Overall precip coverage early Thursday morning
looks to be less than Wednesday as a much weaker LLJ interacts with
the stalled front. Have maintained chc mention overnight before
decreasing pops to slgt chc on Thursday. Temps should continue
rebounding Thursday as heights slowly build in advance of mid-level
low pressure developing over the western U.S. This should result in
mid to upper 70s across most areas...with a few low 80s not out of
question across the western third of the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Friday: Upper level ridging will build into the area on Friday, with
southerly winds and moisture returning. High temperatures on Friday
will be the warmest of the 7-day forecast, with readings reaching
the lower to middle 80s across the CWA.

Saturday/Saturday Night: The upper trough over the Pacific coast
will move into the central CONUS on Saturday, with the remnants of
the tropical system Odile projected to track across eastern Kansas
into central Missouri. A strong low-level jet will develop ahead of
these systems Friday night into Saturday morning, advecting deep
moisture northward. Forecast precipitable water values across the
CWA are expected to be near 2 inches, which is two standard
deviations above the climatological normal. Strong upper ascent from
the approaching trough combined with deep tropical moisture will
yield the potential for locally heavy rainfall for portions of the
forecast area Saturday into Saturday night, along and ahead of a
cold front. Average precipitation totals should range between
one-half to one inch, with locally higher amounts upwards of 1.50".
Specific rainfall totals and the location of the heaviest rainfall
will continue to be refined as the event approaches.

Sunday and beyond: Precipitation should shift out of the forecast
area by Sunday morning, with mostly sunny skies and northerly winds
behind a cold frontal passage. A large upper trough will amplify
over the eastern CONUS by early next work week, keeping the CWA in
northerly flow, and placing temperatures back into below normal
levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

The main concern for aviators during the TAF period will be the
potential for fog this morning. There are still a few clouds around
4kft at the terminals at the beginning of the TAF period but skies
will cont to clr and with light winds...for should begin to develop
around 09Z. This is supported by NAM and GFS MOS guidance as well as
the GFS LAMP and NAM Bufr soundings. Vsbys should drop to 5SM with a
period of dense fog possible at MCI and STJ btn 10Z-13Z where vsbys
may be temporarily be reduced to 1/2SM. Fog is expected to burn off
btn 13Z-14Z as winds pick up to around 5-10kts out of the SE.
Otrw...expect VFR conds through the remainder of the TAF period with clr
skies.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...73






000
FXUS63 KEAX 160835
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
335 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Fairly quiet today as high pressure remains in firm control of the
weather pattern. With this feature to our north...expect continued
northerly to northeasterly winds through the day which will help keep
temps anywhere between 5-10 degrees below normal. In general...highs
this afternoon should warm into the middle to upper 60s across most
areas...with low 70s possible across the far south and southwest. All
good things come to an end and that trend will start tonight as
yesterday/s frontal boundary begins to lift back north as a warm
front in a developing warm air advection regime. Quick look at
several isentropic surfaces reveals decent lift in the 300-305k layer
with condensation pressure deficits showing minimal lift required for
saturation. Meanwhile aloft...fcst models in excellent agreement that
a weak 850-hPa circulation will move overhead which combined with
passing mid-level shortwave energy and a modest 25-30 kt swrly
LLJ...should set the stage for redeveloping shwrs/storms during the
late evening and predawn hrs. Considering upper jet dynamics look
poor...have capped pops in the mid chc range across the western third
of the fcst area...with slgt chc largely reserved for areas east of
Route 65. Cannot rule out some isolated stronger storms as MUCAPE
values exceed 1000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear increases to roughly 30-35
kts. This combination could support a few elevated storms capable of
marginally severe hail.

On Wednesday...aforementioned frontal boundary to make little
eastward progress thanks to well entrenched high pressure across the
Ohio Vly/central Great Lakes. Continued northwest flow aloft will
allow additional shortwaves to traverse the area...however AM activity
should slowly slide south throughout the day as LLJ veers and weakens
through the period. Despite this...decent low-level frontogenesis
combined with diurnal instability will allow for additional activity
through the afternoon and thus maintained slgt chc-chc mention with
highs generally warming into the lower to middle 70s.

Much the same Wednesday night into Thursday as frontal boundary
remains in place. Overall precip coverage early Thursday morning
looks to be less than Wednesday as a much weaker LLJ interacts with
the stalled front. Have maintained chc mention overnight before
decreasing pops to slgt chc on Thursday. Temps should continue
rebounding Thursday as heights slowly build in advance of mid-level
low pressure developing over the western U.S. This should result in
mid to upper 70s across most areas...with a few low 80s not out of
question across the western third of the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Friday: Upper level ridging will build into the area on Friday, with
southerly winds and moisture returning. High temperatures on Friday
will be the warmest of the 7-day forecast, with readings reaching
the lower to middle 80s across the CWA.

Saturday/Saturday Night: The upper trough over the Pacific coast
will move into the central CONUS on Saturday, with the remnants of
the tropical system Odile projected to track across eastern Kansas
into central Missouri. A strong low-level jet will develop ahead of
these systems Friday night into Saturday morning, advecting deep
moisture northward. Forecast precipitable water values across the
CWA are expected to be near 2 inches, which is two standard
deviations above the climatological normal. Strong upper ascent from
the approaching trough combined with deep tropical moisture will
yield the potential for locally heavy rainfall for portions of the
forecast area Saturday into Saturday night, along and ahead of a
cold front. Average precipitation totals should range between
one-half to one inch, with locally higher amounts upwards of 1.50".
Specific rainfall totals and the location of the heaviest rainfall
will continue to be refined as the event approaches.

Sunday and beyond: Precipitation should shift out of the forecast
area by Sunday morning, with mostly sunny skies and northerly winds
behind a cold frontal passage. A large upper trough will amplify
over the eastern CONUS by early next work week, keeping the CWA in
northerly flow, and placing temperatures back into below normal
levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

The main concern for aviators during the TAF period will be the
potential for fog this morning. There are still a few clouds around
4kft at the terminals at the beginning of the TAF period but skies
will cont to clr and with light winds...for should begin to develop
around 09Z. This is supported by NAM and GFS MOS guidance as well as
the GFS LAMP and NAM Bufr soundings. Vsbys should drop to 5SM with a
period of dense fog possible at MCI and STJ btn 10Z-13Z where vsbys
may be temporarily be reduced to 1/2SM. Fog is expected to burn off
btn 13Z-14Z as winds pick up to around 5-10kts out of the SE.
Otrw...expect VFR conds through the remainder of the TAF period with clr
skies.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...73






000
FXUS63 KSGF 160824
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
324 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Wednesday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Post frontal low clouds over southern Kansas and roughly the
southern two thirds of MO continue and the main concern will be
how long the clouds hang on today. Used the NAM as a rough guess
for now which will keep clouds in for much of the day over far
southern MO. Some drizzle is likely occurring where the airport
obs visibility is reduced, and will maintain a mention of drizzle
into the daylight hours.

Sfc high pressure centered near the IA/MO border will shift off to
the east. Isentropic lift on the west side of the retreating sfc
high will develop over eastern KS/western MO tonight juxtaposed
with low level warm air and moisture advection with an overall
moistening of the atmosphere below 500mb. Decent vertical shear
with 500mb nw winds of 35-40kts by the end of the period along
with mu capes of 1000-2000 J/kg will lead to stronger elevated
storms with at least some potential for marginally severe hail
late tonight into Wednesday morning. Mesoscale and global models
are in fair agreement in developing a nw-se corridor of convection
from east central KS into sw MO. Definitely will be a mesoscale
phenomenon, so there is some play as to where this eventually sets
up, but in general took a model blend to generate pops and qpf
late tonight into Wednesday. Could be some pockets of heavier rain
amounts with training/back-building convection as the low level
jet veers Wed morning, but again hard to pinpoint.

Showers/tstms will linger in some areas through the day Wed.
Max temperatures will be affected by cloud cover (both today and
Wed) and will try to adjust downward a bit, but in general used a
model blend.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Additional convection will be possible late Wednesday/Wednesday
night, setting up a bit farther southwest. Frankly, it is a bit
of a roll of the dice where this will set up, being partially
based on how Wednesday`s convection evolves. Again, the same basic
environment of elevated instability/lift/vertical shear will be in
place for a cluster of convection to develop with some stronger
storm updrafts producing hail.

A progressive but fairly amplified 500mb pattern will exist
with an upper ridge axis approaching and moving through the area
Thu-Fri then shifting off to the east for Sat. Medium range
guidance is in fairly good agreement in bringing what is left of
the upper levels of TS Odile east and phasing it with an
approaching mid-latitude system over the upcoming weekend. Will
have fairly high pops mainly for Sat night and early Sunday. Could
be a decent shot of rain, but residence time of the system will be
fairly short with the progressive upper level trough. Dry weather
is then expected Monday with Canadian high pressure moving into
the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A low level stratus deck has
spread south over the area behind a cold front that passed
through the region Monday evening. IFR and MVFR ceilings will
occur through the overnight hours with LIFR ceilings possible
early Tuesday morning.

Skies will clear quickly Tuesday morning from north to south as
surface high pressure spreads into the region with VFR conditions
prevailing Tuesday afternoon and evening..

North winds will occur overnight with winds become easterly on Tuesday
and then southeasterly winds developing Tuesday evening.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 160824
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
324 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Wednesday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Post frontal low clouds over southern Kansas and roughly the
southern two thirds of MO continue and the main concern will be
how long the clouds hang on today. Used the NAM as a rough guess
for now which will keep clouds in for much of the day over far
southern MO. Some drizzle is likely occurring where the airport
obs visibility is reduced, and will maintain a mention of drizzle
into the daylight hours.

Sfc high pressure centered near the IA/MO border will shift off to
the east. Isentropic lift on the west side of the retreating sfc
high will develop over eastern KS/western MO tonight juxtaposed
with low level warm air and moisture advection with an overall
moistening of the atmosphere below 500mb. Decent vertical shear
with 500mb nw winds of 35-40kts by the end of the period along
with mu capes of 1000-2000 J/kg will lead to stronger elevated
storms with at least some potential for marginally severe hail
late tonight into Wednesday morning. Mesoscale and global models
are in fair agreement in developing a nw-se corridor of convection
from east central KS into sw MO. Definitely will be a mesoscale
phenomenon, so there is some play as to where this eventually sets
up, but in general took a model blend to generate pops and qpf
late tonight into Wednesday. Could be some pockets of heavier rain
amounts with training/back-building convection as the low level
jet veers Wed morning, but again hard to pinpoint.

Showers/tstms will linger in some areas through the day Wed.
Max temperatures will be affected by cloud cover (both today and
Wed) and will try to adjust downward a bit, but in general used a
model blend.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Additional convection will be possible late Wednesday/Wednesday
night, setting up a bit farther southwest. Frankly, it is a bit
of a roll of the dice where this will set up, being partially
based on how Wednesday`s convection evolves. Again, the same basic
environment of elevated instability/lift/vertical shear will be in
place for a cluster of convection to develop with some stronger
storm updrafts producing hail.

A progressive but fairly amplified 500mb pattern will exist
with an upper ridge axis approaching and moving through the area
Thu-Fri then shifting off to the east for Sat. Medium range
guidance is in fairly good agreement in bringing what is left of
the upper levels of TS Odile east and phasing it with an
approaching mid-latitude system over the upcoming weekend. Will
have fairly high pops mainly for Sat night and early Sunday. Could
be a decent shot of rain, but residence time of the system will be
fairly short with the progressive upper level trough. Dry weather
is then expected Monday with Canadian high pressure moving into
the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A low level stratus deck has
spread south over the area behind a cold front that passed
through the region Monday evening. IFR and MVFR ceilings will
occur through the overnight hours with LIFR ceilings possible
early Tuesday morning.

Skies will clear quickly Tuesday morning from north to south as
surface high pressure spreads into the region with VFR conditions
prevailing Tuesday afternoon and evening..

North winds will occur overnight with winds become easterly on Tuesday
and then southeasterly winds developing Tuesday evening.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 160824
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
324 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Wednesday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Post frontal low clouds over southern Kansas and roughly the
southern two thirds of MO continue and the main concern will be
how long the clouds hang on today. Used the NAM as a rough guess
for now which will keep clouds in for much of the day over far
southern MO. Some drizzle is likely occurring where the airport
obs visibility is reduced, and will maintain a mention of drizzle
into the daylight hours.

Sfc high pressure centered near the IA/MO border will shift off to
the east. Isentropic lift on the west side of the retreating sfc
high will develop over eastern KS/western MO tonight juxtaposed
with low level warm air and moisture advection with an overall
moistening of the atmosphere below 500mb. Decent vertical shear
with 500mb nw winds of 35-40kts by the end of the period along
with mu capes of 1000-2000 J/kg will lead to stronger elevated
storms with at least some potential for marginally severe hail
late tonight into Wednesday morning. Mesoscale and global models
are in fair agreement in developing a nw-se corridor of convection
from east central KS into sw MO. Definitely will be a mesoscale
phenomenon, so there is some play as to where this eventually sets
up, but in general took a model blend to generate pops and qpf
late tonight into Wednesday. Could be some pockets of heavier rain
amounts with training/back-building convection as the low level
jet veers Wed morning, but again hard to pinpoint.

Showers/tstms will linger in some areas through the day Wed.
Max temperatures will be affected by cloud cover (both today and
Wed) and will try to adjust downward a bit, but in general used a
model blend.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Additional convection will be possible late Wednesday/Wednesday
night, setting up a bit farther southwest. Frankly, it is a bit
of a roll of the dice where this will set up, being partially
based on how Wednesday`s convection evolves. Again, the same basic
environment of elevated instability/lift/vertical shear will be in
place for a cluster of convection to develop with some stronger
storm updrafts producing hail.

A progressive but fairly amplified 500mb pattern will exist
with an upper ridge axis approaching and moving through the area
Thu-Fri then shifting off to the east for Sat. Medium range
guidance is in fairly good agreement in bringing what is left of
the upper levels of TS Odile east and phasing it with an
approaching mid-latitude system over the upcoming weekend. Will
have fairly high pops mainly for Sat night and early Sunday. Could
be a decent shot of rain, but residence time of the system will be
fairly short with the progressive upper level trough. Dry weather
is then expected Monday with Canadian high pressure moving into
the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A low level stratus deck has
spread south over the area behind a cold front that passed
through the region Monday evening. IFR and MVFR ceilings will
occur through the overnight hours with LIFR ceilings possible
early Tuesday morning.

Skies will clear quickly Tuesday morning from north to south as
surface high pressure spreads into the region with VFR conditions
prevailing Tuesday afternoon and evening..

North winds will occur overnight with winds become easterly on Tuesday
and then southeasterly winds developing Tuesday evening.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 160824
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
324 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Wednesday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Post frontal low clouds over southern Kansas and roughly the
southern two thirds of MO continue and the main concern will be
how long the clouds hang on today. Used the NAM as a rough guess
for now which will keep clouds in for much of the day over far
southern MO. Some drizzle is likely occurring where the airport
obs visibility is reduced, and will maintain a mention of drizzle
into the daylight hours.

Sfc high pressure centered near the IA/MO border will shift off to
the east. Isentropic lift on the west side of the retreating sfc
high will develop over eastern KS/western MO tonight juxtaposed
with low level warm air and moisture advection with an overall
moistening of the atmosphere below 500mb. Decent vertical shear
with 500mb nw winds of 35-40kts by the end of the period along
with mu capes of 1000-2000 J/kg will lead to stronger elevated
storms with at least some potential for marginally severe hail
late tonight into Wednesday morning. Mesoscale and global models
are in fair agreement in developing a nw-se corridor of convection
from east central KS into sw MO. Definitely will be a mesoscale
phenomenon, so there is some play as to where this eventually sets
up, but in general took a model blend to generate pops and qpf
late tonight into Wednesday. Could be some pockets of heavier rain
amounts with training/back-building convection as the low level
jet veers Wed morning, but again hard to pinpoint.

Showers/tstms will linger in some areas through the day Wed.
Max temperatures will be affected by cloud cover (both today and
Wed) and will try to adjust downward a bit, but in general used a
model blend.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Additional convection will be possible late Wednesday/Wednesday
night, setting up a bit farther southwest. Frankly, it is a bit
of a roll of the dice where this will set up, being partially
based on how Wednesday`s convection evolves. Again, the same basic
environment of elevated instability/lift/vertical shear will be in
place for a cluster of convection to develop with some stronger
storm updrafts producing hail.

A progressive but fairly amplified 500mb pattern will exist
with an upper ridge axis approaching and moving through the area
Thu-Fri then shifting off to the east for Sat. Medium range
guidance is in fairly good agreement in bringing what is left of
the upper levels of TS Odile east and phasing it with an
approaching mid-latitude system over the upcoming weekend. Will
have fairly high pops mainly for Sat night and early Sunday. Could
be a decent shot of rain, but residence time of the system will be
fairly short with the progressive upper level trough. Dry weather
is then expected Monday with Canadian high pressure moving into
the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A low level stratus deck has
spread south over the area behind a cold front that passed
through the region Monday evening. IFR and MVFR ceilings will
occur through the overnight hours with LIFR ceilings possible
early Tuesday morning.

Skies will clear quickly Tuesday morning from north to south as
surface high pressure spreads into the region with VFR conditions
prevailing Tuesday afternoon and evening..

North winds will occur overnight with winds become easterly on Tuesday
and then southeasterly winds developing Tuesday evening.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 160457
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1157 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A cold front is moving into the area this afternoon and evening.
The front as of mid afternoon was located just north of Chanute
Kansas to just north of the Lake of the Ozarks region. Sunshine
has warmed temperatures in the lower 80s over portions of
southeast Kansas and southern Missouri. Will mention the chance
for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop by
late afternoon along the front as it moves through this evening.
Minor convection was beginning to develop on radar along the front as
of this discussion.

The majority of the showers will dissipate by late evening. The
forecast sounding suggest a good signal for low clouds and patchy
drizzle after midnight through early tomorrow morning especially
on the Ozark Plateau.

The front will stall out just to our south on Tuesday. Tuesday
will be mostly cloudy and rather cool with highs in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 225 PM
CDT MON SEP 15 2014

The front will back up as a warm front late Tuesday night with the
help of a low level jet up to 40 knots. A mid level impulse will
ride along the northwest flow and interact with the frontal
boundary and low level jet. Bulk shear will be around 35 knots and MUCape
values approaching 2000 J/KG. Elevated convection will develop
over southeast Kansas and western Missouri after midnight Tuesday
night through Wednesday morning. A few strong storms can not be
ruled out with sub severe hail the main threat...up to nickel size
possible.

Additional scattered showers and storms will be possible Wednesday
night and Thursday as the front remains stalled across the area. The
front will finally wash out late Thursday and Friday as upper
level ridging will move over the area. Temperatures will warm back
up into the lower 80s by the end of the week.

A trough will dig down across the northern plains region into the
Midwest by Saturday. This will bring down a cold front late
Saturday and Saturday night. This front will bring another round
of showers and thunderstorms this weekend followed by another cool
down behind the front Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A low level stratus deck has
spread south over the area behind a cold front that passed
through the region Monday evening. IFR and MVFR ceilings will
occur through the overnight hours with LIFR ceilings possible
early Tuesday morning.

Skies will clear quickly Tuesday morning from north to south as
surface high pressure spreads into the region with VFR conditions
prevailing Tuesday afternoon and evening..

North winds will occur overnight with winds become easterly on Tuesday
and then southeasterly winds developing Tuesday evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 160457
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1157 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A cold front is moving into the area this afternoon and evening.
The front as of mid afternoon was located just north of Chanute
Kansas to just north of the Lake of the Ozarks region. Sunshine
has warmed temperatures in the lower 80s over portions of
southeast Kansas and southern Missouri. Will mention the chance
for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop by
late afternoon along the front as it moves through this evening.
Minor convection was beginning to develop on radar along the front as
of this discussion.

The majority of the showers will dissipate by late evening. The
forecast sounding suggest a good signal for low clouds and patchy
drizzle after midnight through early tomorrow morning especially
on the Ozark Plateau.

The front will stall out just to our south on Tuesday. Tuesday
will be mostly cloudy and rather cool with highs in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 225 PM
CDT MON SEP 15 2014

The front will back up as a warm front late Tuesday night with the
help of a low level jet up to 40 knots. A mid level impulse will
ride along the northwest flow and interact with the frontal
boundary and low level jet. Bulk shear will be around 35 knots and MUCape
values approaching 2000 J/KG. Elevated convection will develop
over southeast Kansas and western Missouri after midnight Tuesday
night through Wednesday morning. A few strong storms can not be
ruled out with sub severe hail the main threat...up to nickel size
possible.

Additional scattered showers and storms will be possible Wednesday
night and Thursday as the front remains stalled across the area. The
front will finally wash out late Thursday and Friday as upper
level ridging will move over the area. Temperatures will warm back
up into the lower 80s by the end of the week.

A trough will dig down across the northern plains region into the
Midwest by Saturday. This will bring down a cold front late
Saturday and Saturday night. This front will bring another round
of showers and thunderstorms this weekend followed by another cool
down behind the front Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A low level stratus deck has
spread south over the area behind a cold front that passed
through the region Monday evening. IFR and MVFR ceilings will
occur through the overnight hours with LIFR ceilings possible
early Tuesday morning.

Skies will clear quickly Tuesday morning from north to south as
surface high pressure spreads into the region with VFR conditions
prevailing Tuesday afternoon and evening..

North winds will occur overnight with winds become easterly on Tuesday
and then southeasterly winds developing Tuesday evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 160457
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1157 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A cold front is moving into the area this afternoon and evening.
The front as of mid afternoon was located just north of Chanute
Kansas to just north of the Lake of the Ozarks region. Sunshine
has warmed temperatures in the lower 80s over portions of
southeast Kansas and southern Missouri. Will mention the chance
for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop by
late afternoon along the front as it moves through this evening.
Minor convection was beginning to develop on radar along the front as
of this discussion.

The majority of the showers will dissipate by late evening. The
forecast sounding suggest a good signal for low clouds and patchy
drizzle after midnight through early tomorrow morning especially
on the Ozark Plateau.

The front will stall out just to our south on Tuesday. Tuesday
will be mostly cloudy and rather cool with highs in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 225 PM
CDT MON SEP 15 2014

The front will back up as a warm front late Tuesday night with the
help of a low level jet up to 40 knots. A mid level impulse will
ride along the northwest flow and interact with the frontal
boundary and low level jet. Bulk shear will be around 35 knots and MUCape
values approaching 2000 J/KG. Elevated convection will develop
over southeast Kansas and western Missouri after midnight Tuesday
night through Wednesday morning. A few strong storms can not be
ruled out with sub severe hail the main threat...up to nickel size
possible.

Additional scattered showers and storms will be possible Wednesday
night and Thursday as the front remains stalled across the area. The
front will finally wash out late Thursday and Friday as upper
level ridging will move over the area. Temperatures will warm back
up into the lower 80s by the end of the week.

A trough will dig down across the northern plains region into the
Midwest by Saturday. This will bring down a cold front late
Saturday and Saturday night. This front will bring another round
of showers and thunderstorms this weekend followed by another cool
down behind the front Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A low level stratus deck has
spread south over the area behind a cold front that passed
through the region Monday evening. IFR and MVFR ceilings will
occur through the overnight hours with LIFR ceilings possible
early Tuesday morning.

Skies will clear quickly Tuesday morning from north to south as
surface high pressure spreads into the region with VFR conditions
prevailing Tuesday afternoon and evening..

North winds will occur overnight with winds become easterly on Tuesday
and then southeasterly winds developing Tuesday evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 160457
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1157 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A cold front is moving into the area this afternoon and evening.
The front as of mid afternoon was located just north of Chanute
Kansas to just north of the Lake of the Ozarks region. Sunshine
has warmed temperatures in the lower 80s over portions of
southeast Kansas and southern Missouri. Will mention the chance
for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop by
late afternoon along the front as it moves through this evening.
Minor convection was beginning to develop on radar along the front as
of this discussion.

The majority of the showers will dissipate by late evening. The
forecast sounding suggest a good signal for low clouds and patchy
drizzle after midnight through early tomorrow morning especially
on the Ozark Plateau.

The front will stall out just to our south on Tuesday. Tuesday
will be mostly cloudy and rather cool with highs in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 225 PM
CDT MON SEP 15 2014

The front will back up as a warm front late Tuesday night with the
help of a low level jet up to 40 knots. A mid level impulse will
ride along the northwest flow and interact with the frontal
boundary and low level jet. Bulk shear will be around 35 knots and MUCape
values approaching 2000 J/KG. Elevated convection will develop
over southeast Kansas and western Missouri after midnight Tuesday
night through Wednesday morning. A few strong storms can not be
ruled out with sub severe hail the main threat...up to nickel size
possible.

Additional scattered showers and storms will be possible Wednesday
night and Thursday as the front remains stalled across the area. The
front will finally wash out late Thursday and Friday as upper
level ridging will move over the area. Temperatures will warm back
up into the lower 80s by the end of the week.

A trough will dig down across the northern plains region into the
Midwest by Saturday. This will bring down a cold front late
Saturday and Saturday night. This front will bring another round
of showers and thunderstorms this weekend followed by another cool
down behind the front Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A low level stratus deck has
spread south over the area behind a cold front that passed
through the region Monday evening. IFR and MVFR ceilings will
occur through the overnight hours with LIFR ceilings possible
early Tuesday morning.

Skies will clear quickly Tuesday morning from north to south as
surface high pressure spreads into the region with VFR conditions
prevailing Tuesday afternoon and evening..

North winds will occur overnight with winds become easterly on Tuesday
and then southeasterly winds developing Tuesday evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KLSX 160449
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1149 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 545 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

Quick update to the forecast this evening to account for area of
drizzle that has developed in the wake of the front.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

Focus tonight will be RA/DZ and FG development.

Sfc low and fnt are slowly moving thru the region this afternoon.
Mdls are in good agreement with this system pulling out of the
region this eve. Behind the fnt, low clouds and DZ linger with an
isod shower. Will keep slight chance PoPs for portions of the CWA
this evening, then mention DZ and FG overnight. Mdls suggest nrn
portions of the CWA will clear out this eve allowing temps to
quickly drop and FG to potentially form. Uncertainty remains how
low vsbys will drop as nly winds will help advect dry air into the
region. Have added patchy FG for areas along and N of a line from
KJEF to KPPQ. Elsewhere, will leave mention of DZ with low clouds
lingering thru the night and based on upstream obs. This line,
between FG and DZ, may need to be moved as the evening progresses.


Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

(Tuesday through Thursday)

Some patchy fog and drizzle will persist through mid morning Tuesday
before mixing kicks in and skies begin to clear.  Then expect
dry weather the rest of the day and on Tuesday night as we will lie
under neutral or subsident motion under northwesterly flow aloft.
Still expect scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and
Wednesday night over central and southeast Missouri as the
GFS/NAM/ECMWF are all in good agreement that a weak shortwave will
move southeast across Missouri late in the day.  This system will
have some corresponding low level moisture convergence to support
it.  Have left Thursday dry as upper ridge will be building into the
area from the west.

High temperatures are mainly a blend of MOS guidance which are
supported by mixing down 900mb temperatures.  Low temperatures
follow the agreeable MOS guidance.

(Friday through Monday)

Still expect temperatures to warm up to near normal on Friday and
Saturday as both the GFS and ECMWF are still progging 850mb
temperatures to reach the mid teens Celsius.  Friday still looks dry
before ascent increases ahead of a trough that will move through the
area over the weekend.  There is less agreement today than yesterday
with the details of the operational GFS and ECMWF regarding the
speed and depth of this upper trough.  Either way, it still appears
that a there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms over the
area Saturday into Sunday as the attendant cold front moves across
the area.  By next Monday, the ECMWF is showing colder air working
into the area behind a deeper upper air trough than the GFS.  Will
lean toward climatology for temperatures behind the front for early
next week.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

MVFR Ceilings will continue to clear slowly from the north. Where
the sky becomes clear tonight, expect fog develop. Unsure how
dense the fog will be, but low end MVFR/IFR is certainly possible.
Further south across central and east central Missouri as well as
southwest Illinois and southeast Missouri, expect MVFR cigs to
prevail for the rest of the night...and likely lowering to IFR
ceilings in places along and south of the I-70 corridor. Low end
MVFR and IFR cigs will prevail until sunrise when ceilings should
lift and scatter by mid-late morning.

Specifics for KSTL:

Expect MVFR ceilings to lower to IFR before sunrise Tuesday
morning. Latest thinking is that the ceilings won`t be as low as
previously forecast, but still AOB 900FT. The timing of the
lowering is still uncertain as well, but feel it should be down to
IFR by 09Z-10Z. Ceilings should lift and scatter by mid-late
morning Tuesday with VFR conditions to prevail after.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 160444
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1144 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER AND PATCHY DRIZZLE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY COOL
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS. HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG
MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-70 WERE RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST.
TOMORROW WILL BE COOL YET NICE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AS A
SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE CWA. THE CURRENT COLD FRONT WILL STALL
TO OUR SOUTH AND SLOWLY MIX NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
THE PROGGED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE, I MAINTAIN THE
ONGOING POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS VERY LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA APPEARS TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING THE HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE RATHER
MILD AND BREEZY AS THE REGION BECOMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
RAPIDLY MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE OUR BEST SHOT AT SEEING WIDESPREAD
RAINS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE BEST
LIFT/DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA, THE SYSTEM WILL
HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS MUCH OF THE MOISTURE SOURCE
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT IS CURRENTLY HRCN ODILE. SUNDAY SHOULD
DRY OUT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

The main concern for aviators during the TAF period will be the
potential for fog this morning. There are still a few clouds around
4kft at the terminals at the beginning of the TAF period but skies
will cont to clr and with light winds...for should begin to develop
around 09Z. This is supported by NAM and GFS MOS guidance as well as
the GFS LAMP and NAM Bufr soundings. Vsbys should drop to 5SM with a
period of dense fog possible at MCI and STJ btn 10Z-13Z where vsbys
may be temporarily be reduced to 1/2SM. Fog is expected to burn off
btn 13Z-14Z as winds pick up to around 5-10kts out of the SE.
Otrw...expect VFR conds through the remainder of the TAF period with clr
skies.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...73






000
FXUS63 KEAX 160444
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1144 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER AND PATCHY DRIZZLE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY COOL
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS. HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG
MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-70 WERE RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST.
TOMORROW WILL BE COOL YET NICE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AS A
SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE CWA. THE CURRENT COLD FRONT WILL STALL
TO OUR SOUTH AND SLOWLY MIX NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
THE PROGGED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE, I MAINTAIN THE
ONGOING POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS VERY LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA APPEARS TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING THE HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE RATHER
MILD AND BREEZY AS THE REGION BECOMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
RAPIDLY MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE OUR BEST SHOT AT SEEING WIDESPREAD
RAINS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE BEST
LIFT/DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA, THE SYSTEM WILL
HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS MUCH OF THE MOISTURE SOURCE
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT IS CURRENTLY HRCN ODILE. SUNDAY SHOULD
DRY OUT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

The main concern for aviators during the TAF period will be the
potential for fog this morning. There are still a few clouds around
4kft at the terminals at the beginning of the TAF period but skies
will cont to clr and with light winds...for should begin to develop
around 09Z. This is supported by NAM and GFS MOS guidance as well as
the GFS LAMP and NAM Bufr soundings. Vsbys should drop to 5SM with a
period of dense fog possible at MCI and STJ btn 10Z-13Z where vsbys
may be temporarily be reduced to 1/2SM. Fog is expected to burn off
btn 13Z-14Z as winds pick up to around 5-10kts out of the SE.
Otrw...expect VFR conds through the remainder of the TAF period with clr
skies.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...73






000
FXUS63 KEAX 160444
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1144 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER AND PATCHY DRIZZLE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY COOL
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS. HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG
MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-70 WERE RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST.
TOMORROW WILL BE COOL YET NICE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AS A
SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE CWA. THE CURRENT COLD FRONT WILL STALL
TO OUR SOUTH AND SLOWLY MIX NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
THE PROGGED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE, I MAINTAIN THE
ONGOING POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS VERY LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA APPEARS TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING THE HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE RATHER
MILD AND BREEZY AS THE REGION BECOMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
RAPIDLY MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE OUR BEST SHOT AT SEEING WIDESPREAD
RAINS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE BEST
LIFT/DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA, THE SYSTEM WILL
HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS MUCH OF THE MOISTURE SOURCE
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT IS CURRENTLY HRCN ODILE. SUNDAY SHOULD
DRY OUT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

The main concern for aviators during the TAF period will be the
potential for fog this morning. There are still a few clouds around
4kft at the terminals at the beginning of the TAF period but skies
will cont to clr and with light winds...for should begin to develop
around 09Z. This is supported by NAM and GFS MOS guidance as well as
the GFS LAMP and NAM Bufr soundings. Vsbys should drop to 5SM with a
period of dense fog possible at MCI and STJ btn 10Z-13Z where vsbys
may be temporarily be reduced to 1/2SM. Fog is expected to burn off
btn 13Z-14Z as winds pick up to around 5-10kts out of the SE.
Otrw...expect VFR conds through the remainder of the TAF period with clr
skies.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...73






000
FXUS63 KEAX 160444
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1144 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER AND PATCHY DRIZZLE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY COOL
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS. HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG
MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-70 WERE RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST.
TOMORROW WILL BE COOL YET NICE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AS A
SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE CWA. THE CURRENT COLD FRONT WILL STALL
TO OUR SOUTH AND SLOWLY MIX NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
THE PROGGED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE, I MAINTAIN THE
ONGOING POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS VERY LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA APPEARS TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING THE HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE RATHER
MILD AND BREEZY AS THE REGION BECOMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
RAPIDLY MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE OUR BEST SHOT AT SEEING WIDESPREAD
RAINS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE BEST
LIFT/DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA, THE SYSTEM WILL
HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS MUCH OF THE MOISTURE SOURCE
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT IS CURRENTLY HRCN ODILE. SUNDAY SHOULD
DRY OUT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

The main concern for aviators during the TAF period will be the
potential for fog this morning. There are still a few clouds around
4kft at the terminals at the beginning of the TAF period but skies
will cont to clr and with light winds...for should begin to develop
around 09Z. This is supported by NAM and GFS MOS guidance as well as
the GFS LAMP and NAM Bufr soundings. Vsbys should drop to 5SM with a
period of dense fog possible at MCI and STJ btn 10Z-13Z where vsbys
may be temporarily be reduced to 1/2SM. Fog is expected to burn off
btn 13Z-14Z as winds pick up to around 5-10kts out of the SE.
Otrw...expect VFR conds through the remainder of the TAF period with clr
skies.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...73






000
FXUS63 KLSX 160020
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
720 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 545 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

Quick update to the forecast this evening to account for area of
drizzle that has developed in the wake of the front.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

Focus tonight will be RA/DZ and FG development.

Sfc low and fnt are slowly moving thru the region this afternoon.
Mdls are in good agreement with this system pulling out of the
region this eve. Behind the fnt, low clouds and DZ linger with an
isod shower. Will keep slight chance PoPs for portions of the CWA
this evening, then mention DZ and FG overnight. Mdls suggest nrn
portions of the CWA will clear out this eve allowing temps to
quickly drop and FG to potentially form. Uncertainty remains how
low vsbys will drop as nly winds will help advect dry air into the
region. Have added patchy FG for areas along and N of a line from
KJEF to KPPQ. Elsewhere, will leave mention of DZ with low clouds
lingering thru the night and based on upstream obs. This line,
between FG and DZ, may need to be moved as the evening progresses.


Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

(Tuesday through Thursday)

Some patchy fog and drizzle will persist through mid morning Tuesday
before mixing kicks in and skies begin to clear.  Then expect
dry weather the rest of the day and on Tuesday night as we will lie
under neutral or subsident motion under northwesterly flow aloft.
Still expect scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and
Wednesday night over central and southeast Missouri as the
GFS/NAM/ECMWF are all in good agreement that a weak shortwave will
move southeast across Missouri late in the day.  This system will
have some corresponding low level moisture convergence to support
it.  Have left Thursday dry as upper ridge will be building into the
area from the west.

High temperatures are mainly a blend of MOS guidance which are
supported by mixing down 900mb temperatures.  Low temperatures
follow the agreeable MOS guidance.

(Friday through Monday)

Still expect temperatures to warm up to near normal on Friday and
Saturday as both the GFS and ECMWF are still progging 850mb
temperatures to reach the mid teens Celsius.  Friday still looks dry
before ascent increases ahead of a trough that will move through the
area over the weekend.  There is less agreement today than yesterday
with the details of the operational GFS and ECMWF regarding the
speed and depth of this upper trough.  Either way, it still appears
that a there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms over the
area Saturday into Sunday as the attendant cold front moves across
the area.  By next Monday, the ECMWF is showing colder air working
into the area behind a deeper upper air trough than the GFS.  Will
lean toward climatology for temperatures behind the front for early
next week.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

Expect MVFR flight conditions and northerly flow will prevail this
evening across most of the area. A band of drizzle or light rain
stretching along the I-70 corridor will continue moving south with
cigs/vsbys dropping to IFR in some spots. Another band of
thunderstorms over southeast Missouri will continue moving south
and exit the area by 01Z. Lower confidence in the forecast after
06Z, but either IFR stratus or fog (perhaps both) is expected to
develop from central through east central Missouri into southwest
Illinois. Guidance shows flight conditions falling below airport
minimums during the predawn hours of Tuesday morning. Am not that
confident this will happen, but vsbys/cigs below AOB 1SM and 400FT
are certainly possible. IFR conditions should improve after 14Z
Tuesday morning.

Specifics for KSTL:

Band of light rain or drizzle will likely be through the terminal
shortly, which will necessitate an update to the TAF. Expect a
temporary increase in ceilings behind the drizzle, possibly up to
VFR conditions, but IFR cigs are lurking to the north/northeast
and expect that these lower ceilings will build southwest as the
evening cools. Guidance is indicating that vsbys/cigs will drop to
near or below airport minimums late tonight, but am not confident
this will occur. Still, with cool air filtering in behind the
front and drier air lagging, could see conditions AOB 1SM and
400FT during the predawn hours of Tuesday. IFR flight conditions
should improve after 14Z Tuesday morning.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 160020
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
720 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 545 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

Quick update to the forecast this evening to account for area of
drizzle that has developed in the wake of the front.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

Focus tonight will be RA/DZ and FG development.

Sfc low and fnt are slowly moving thru the region this afternoon.
Mdls are in good agreement with this system pulling out of the
region this eve. Behind the fnt, low clouds and DZ linger with an
isod shower. Will keep slight chance PoPs for portions of the CWA
this evening, then mention DZ and FG overnight. Mdls suggest nrn
portions of the CWA will clear out this eve allowing temps to
quickly drop and FG to potentially form. Uncertainty remains how
low vsbys will drop as nly winds will help advect dry air into the
region. Have added patchy FG for areas along and N of a line from
KJEF to KPPQ. Elsewhere, will leave mention of DZ with low clouds
lingering thru the night and based on upstream obs. This line,
between FG and DZ, may need to be moved as the evening progresses.


Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

(Tuesday through Thursday)

Some patchy fog and drizzle will persist through mid morning Tuesday
before mixing kicks in and skies begin to clear.  Then expect
dry weather the rest of the day and on Tuesday night as we will lie
under neutral or subsident motion under northwesterly flow aloft.
Still expect scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and
Wednesday night over central and southeast Missouri as the
GFS/NAM/ECMWF are all in good agreement that a weak shortwave will
move southeast across Missouri late in the day.  This system will
have some corresponding low level moisture convergence to support
it.  Have left Thursday dry as upper ridge will be building into the
area from the west.

High temperatures are mainly a blend of MOS guidance which are
supported by mixing down 900mb temperatures.  Low temperatures
follow the agreeable MOS guidance.

(Friday through Monday)

Still expect temperatures to warm up to near normal on Friday and
Saturday as both the GFS and ECMWF are still progging 850mb
temperatures to reach the mid teens Celsius.  Friday still looks dry
before ascent increases ahead of a trough that will move through the
area over the weekend.  There is less agreement today than yesterday
with the details of the operational GFS and ECMWF regarding the
speed and depth of this upper trough.  Either way, it still appears
that a there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms over the
area Saturday into Sunday as the attendant cold front moves across
the area.  By next Monday, the ECMWF is showing colder air working
into the area behind a deeper upper air trough than the GFS.  Will
lean toward climatology for temperatures behind the front for early
next week.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

Expect MVFR flight conditions and northerly flow will prevail this
evening across most of the area. A band of drizzle or light rain
stretching along the I-70 corridor will continue moving south with
cigs/vsbys dropping to IFR in some spots. Another band of
thunderstorms over southeast Missouri will continue moving south
and exit the area by 01Z. Lower confidence in the forecast after
06Z, but either IFR stratus or fog (perhaps both) is expected to
develop from central through east central Missouri into southwest
Illinois. Guidance shows flight conditions falling below airport
minimums during the predawn hours of Tuesday morning. Am not that
confident this will happen, but vsbys/cigs below AOB 1SM and 400FT
are certainly possible. IFR conditions should improve after 14Z
Tuesday morning.

Specifics for KSTL:

Band of light rain or drizzle will likely be through the terminal
shortly, which will necessitate an update to the TAF. Expect a
temporary increase in ceilings behind the drizzle, possibly up to
VFR conditions, but IFR cigs are lurking to the north/northeast
and expect that these lower ceilings will build southwest as the
evening cools. Guidance is indicating that vsbys/cigs will drop to
near or below airport minimums late tonight, but am not confident
this will occur. Still, with cool air filtering in behind the
front and drier air lagging, could see conditions AOB 1SM and
400FT during the predawn hours of Tuesday. IFR flight conditions
should improve after 14Z Tuesday morning.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 152331
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
631 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER AND PATCHY DRIZZLE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY COOL
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS. HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG
MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-70 WERE RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST.
TOMORROW WILL BE COOL YET NICE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AS A
SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE CWA. THE CURRENT COLD FRONT WILL STALL
TO OUR SOUTH AND SLOWLY MIX NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
THE PROGGED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE, I MAINTAIN THE
ONGOING POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS VERY LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA APPEARS TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING THE HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE RATHER
MILD AND BREEZY AS THE REGION BECOMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
RAPIDLY MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE OUR BEST SHOT AT SEEING WIDESPREAD
RAINS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE BEST
LIFT/DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA, THE SYSTEM WILL
HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS MUCH OF THE MOISTURE SOURCE
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT IS CURRENTLY HRCN ODILE. SUNDAY SHOULD
DRY OUT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Bkn MVFR cigs will be possible thru the first hour of the TAF pd then
will sct out by 01Z as high pressure is building into the region.
Skies will eventually clr tonight leading the way for radiational and
steam fog to develop at the terminals. Fog is expected to develop
around 08Z initially reducing vsbys to 4-5SM however fog is expected
to thicken at STJ and MCI producing VLIFR vis btn 09Z-13Z (vsbys are
expected to remain btn 4-5SM at MKC with the chance for IFR cigs btn
09Z-13Z). Visibilities will improve by 14Z-15Z as winds begin to pick
up for the SE btn 5-10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...73






000
FXUS63 KSGF 152315
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
615 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A cold front is moving into the area this afternoon and evening.
The front as of mid afternoon was located just north of Chanute
Kansas to just north of the Lake of the Ozarks region. Sunshine
has warmed temperatures in the lower 80s over portions of
southeast Kansas and southern Missouri. Will mention the chance
for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop by
late afternoon along the front as it moves through this evening.
Minor convection was beginning to develop on radar along the front as
of this discussion.

The majority of the showers will dissipate by late evening. The
forecast sounding suggest a good signal for low clouds and patchy
drizzle after midnight through early tomorrow morning especially
on the Ozark Plateau.

The front will stall out just to our south on Tuesday. Tuesday
will be mostly cloudy and rather cool with highs in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 225 PM
CDT MON SEP 15 2014

The front will back up as a warm front late Tuesday night with the
help of a low level jet up to 40 knots. A mid level impulse will
ride along the northwest flow and interact with the frontal
boundary and low level jet. Bulk shear will be around 35 knots and MUCape
values approaching 2000 J/KG. Elevated convection will develop
over southeast Kansas and western Missouri after midnight Tuesday
night through Wednesday morning. A few strong storms can not be
ruled out with sub severe hail the main threat...up to nickel size
possible.

Additional scattered showers and storms will be possible Wednesday
night and Thursday as the front remains stalled across the area. The
front will finally wash out late Thursday and Friday as upper
level ridging will move over the area. Temperatures will warm back
up into the lower 80s by the end of the week.

A trough will dig down across the northern plains region into the
Midwest by Saturday. This will bring down a cold front late
Saturday and Saturday night. This front will bring another round
of showers and thunderstorms this weekend followed by another cool
down behind the front Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A cold front is currently
pushing south through the area early this evening. Scattered
storms did develop on the front over the the last couple hours,
but this activity is really starting to decrease in coverage as we start
to lose day time heating. The best chance for a TAF site to be
affect is the KJLN TAF site just prior to the start of the 00Z TAF
cycle with the activity expected to be south of the site by 00Z.

Behind the front winds will switch to the north through the night
becoming more northeasterly during the day Tuesday. Ceilings will
lower into the MVFR range a couple hours behind the frontal
passage and remain there overnight, with IFR ceilings expected for
a few hours early Tuesday morning. Conditions will then improve to
VFR by the late morning and afternoon hours Tuesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 152315
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
615 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A cold front is moving into the area this afternoon and evening.
The front as of mid afternoon was located just north of Chanute
Kansas to just north of the Lake of the Ozarks region. Sunshine
has warmed temperatures in the lower 80s over portions of
southeast Kansas and southern Missouri. Will mention the chance
for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop by
late afternoon along the front as it moves through this evening.
Minor convection was beginning to develop on radar along the front as
of this discussion.

The majority of the showers will dissipate by late evening. The
forecast sounding suggest a good signal for low clouds and patchy
drizzle after midnight through early tomorrow morning especially
on the Ozark Plateau.

The front will stall out just to our south on Tuesday. Tuesday
will be mostly cloudy and rather cool with highs in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 225 PM
CDT MON SEP 15 2014

The front will back up as a warm front late Tuesday night with the
help of a low level jet up to 40 knots. A mid level impulse will
ride along the northwest flow and interact with the frontal
boundary and low level jet. Bulk shear will be around 35 knots and MUCape
values approaching 2000 J/KG. Elevated convection will develop
over southeast Kansas and western Missouri after midnight Tuesday
night through Wednesday morning. A few strong storms can not be
ruled out with sub severe hail the main threat...up to nickel size
possible.

Additional scattered showers and storms will be possible Wednesday
night and Thursday as the front remains stalled across the area. The
front will finally wash out late Thursday and Friday as upper
level ridging will move over the area. Temperatures will warm back
up into the lower 80s by the end of the week.

A trough will dig down across the northern plains region into the
Midwest by Saturday. This will bring down a cold front late
Saturday and Saturday night. This front will bring another round
of showers and thunderstorms this weekend followed by another cool
down behind the front Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A cold front is currently
pushing south through the area early this evening. Scattered
storms did develop on the front over the the last couple hours,
but this activity is really starting to decrease in coverage as we start
to lose day time heating. The best chance for a TAF site to be
affect is the KJLN TAF site just prior to the start of the 00Z TAF
cycle with the activity expected to be south of the site by 00Z.

Behind the front winds will switch to the north through the night
becoming more northeasterly during the day Tuesday. Ceilings will
lower into the MVFR range a couple hours behind the frontal
passage and remain there overnight, with IFR ceilings expected for
a few hours early Tuesday morning. Conditions will then improve to
VFR by the late morning and afternoon hours Tuesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 152315
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
615 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A cold front is moving into the area this afternoon and evening.
The front as of mid afternoon was located just north of Chanute
Kansas to just north of the Lake of the Ozarks region. Sunshine
has warmed temperatures in the lower 80s over portions of
southeast Kansas and southern Missouri. Will mention the chance
for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop by
late afternoon along the front as it moves through this evening.
Minor convection was beginning to develop on radar along the front as
of this discussion.

The majority of the showers will dissipate by late evening. The
forecast sounding suggest a good signal for low clouds and patchy
drizzle after midnight through early tomorrow morning especially
on the Ozark Plateau.

The front will stall out just to our south on Tuesday. Tuesday
will be mostly cloudy and rather cool with highs in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 225 PM
CDT MON SEP 15 2014

The front will back up as a warm front late Tuesday night with the
help of a low level jet up to 40 knots. A mid level impulse will
ride along the northwest flow and interact with the frontal
boundary and low level jet. Bulk shear will be around 35 knots and MUCape
values approaching 2000 J/KG. Elevated convection will develop
over southeast Kansas and western Missouri after midnight Tuesday
night through Wednesday morning. A few strong storms can not be
ruled out with sub severe hail the main threat...up to nickel size
possible.

Additional scattered showers and storms will be possible Wednesday
night and Thursday as the front remains stalled across the area. The
front will finally wash out late Thursday and Friday as upper
level ridging will move over the area. Temperatures will warm back
up into the lower 80s by the end of the week.

A trough will dig down across the northern plains region into the
Midwest by Saturday. This will bring down a cold front late
Saturday and Saturday night. This front will bring another round
of showers and thunderstorms this weekend followed by another cool
down behind the front Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A cold front is currently
pushing south through the area early this evening. Scattered
storms did develop on the front over the the last couple hours,
but this activity is really starting to decrease in coverage as we start
to lose day time heating. The best chance for a TAF site to be
affect is the KJLN TAF site just prior to the start of the 00Z TAF
cycle with the activity expected to be south of the site by 00Z.

Behind the front winds will switch to the north through the night
becoming more northeasterly during the day Tuesday. Ceilings will
lower into the MVFR range a couple hours behind the frontal
passage and remain there overnight, with IFR ceilings expected for
a few hours early Tuesday morning. Conditions will then improve to
VFR by the late morning and afternoon hours Tuesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 152315
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
615 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A cold front is moving into the area this afternoon and evening.
The front as of mid afternoon was located just north of Chanute
Kansas to just north of the Lake of the Ozarks region. Sunshine
has warmed temperatures in the lower 80s over portions of
southeast Kansas and southern Missouri. Will mention the chance
for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop by
late afternoon along the front as it moves through this evening.
Minor convection was beginning to develop on radar along the front as
of this discussion.

The majority of the showers will dissipate by late evening. The
forecast sounding suggest a good signal for low clouds and patchy
drizzle after midnight through early tomorrow morning especially
on the Ozark Plateau.

The front will stall out just to our south on Tuesday. Tuesday
will be mostly cloudy and rather cool with highs in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 225 PM
CDT MON SEP 15 2014

The front will back up as a warm front late Tuesday night with the
help of a low level jet up to 40 knots. A mid level impulse will
ride along the northwest flow and interact with the frontal
boundary and low level jet. Bulk shear will be around 35 knots and MUCape
values approaching 2000 J/KG. Elevated convection will develop
over southeast Kansas and western Missouri after midnight Tuesday
night through Wednesday morning. A few strong storms can not be
ruled out with sub severe hail the main threat...up to nickel size
possible.

Additional scattered showers and storms will be possible Wednesday
night and Thursday as the front remains stalled across the area. The
front will finally wash out late Thursday and Friday as upper
level ridging will move over the area. Temperatures will warm back
up into the lower 80s by the end of the week.

A trough will dig down across the northern plains region into the
Midwest by Saturday. This will bring down a cold front late
Saturday and Saturday night. This front will bring another round
of showers and thunderstorms this weekend followed by another cool
down behind the front Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A cold front is currently
pushing south through the area early this evening. Scattered
storms did develop on the front over the the last couple hours,
but this activity is really starting to decrease in coverage as we start
to lose day time heating. The best chance for a TAF site to be
affect is the KJLN TAF site just prior to the start of the 00Z TAF
cycle with the activity expected to be south of the site by 00Z.

Behind the front winds will switch to the north through the night
becoming more northeasterly during the day Tuesday. Ceilings will
lower into the MVFR range a couple hours behind the frontal
passage and remain there overnight, with IFR ceilings expected for
a few hours early Tuesday morning. Conditions will then improve to
VFR by the late morning and afternoon hours Tuesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KLSX 152247
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
547 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 545 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

Quick update to the forecast this evening to account for area of
drizzle that has developed in the wake of the front.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

Focus tonight will be RA/DZ and FG development.

Sfc low and fnt are slowly moving thru the region this afternoon.
Mdls are in good agreement with this system pulling out of the
region this eve. Behind the fnt, low clouds and DZ linger with an
isod shower. Will keep slight chance PoPs for portions of the CWA
this evening, then mention DZ and FG overnight. Mdls suggest nrn
portions of the CWA will clear out this eve allowing temps to
quickly drop and FG to potentially form. Uncertainty remains how
low vsbys will drop as nly winds will help advect dry air into the
region. Have added patchy FG for areas along and N of a line from
KJEF to KPPQ. Elsewhere, will leave mention of DZ with low clouds
lingering thru the night and based on upstream obs. This line,
between FG and DZ, may need to be moved as the evening progresses.


Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

(Tuesday through Thursday)

Some patchy fog and drizzle will persist through mid morning Tuesday
before mixing kicks in and skies begin to clear.  Then expect
dry weather the rest of the day and on Tuesday night as we will lie
under neutral or subsident motion under northwesterly flow aloft.
Still expect scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and
Wednesday night over central and southeast Missouri as the
GFS/NAM/ECMWF are all in good agreement that a weak shortwave will
move southeast across Missouri late in the day.  This system will
have some corresponding low level moisture convergence to support
it.  Have left Thursday dry as upper ridge will be building into the
area from the west.

High temperatures are mainly a blend of MOS guidance which are
supported by mixing down 900mb temperatures.  Low temperatures
follow the agreeable MOS guidance.

(Friday through Monday)

Still expect temperatures to warm up to near normal on Friday and
Saturday as both the GFS and ECMWF are still progging 850mb
temperatures to reach the mid teens Celsius.  Friday still looks dry
before ascent increases ahead of a trough that will move through the
area over the weekend.  There is less agreement today than yesterday
with the details of the operational GFS and ECMWF regarding the
speed and depth of this upper trough.  Either way, it still appears
that a there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms over the
area Saturday into Sunday as the attendant cold front moves across
the area.  By next Monday, the ECMWF is showing colder air working
into the area behind a deeper upper air trough than the GFS.  Will
lean toward climatology for temperatures behind the front for early
next week.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

Approaching cdfnt will bring a chance for TSRA to COU/SUS/CPS this
afternoon. With lack of insolation ahead of the fnt, there is a
lot of uncertainty regarding coverage of storms. Have kept VCTS
mention for now. Upstream obs and guidance suggests low MVFR to
IFR cigs will move into the region behind the fnt with winds
becoming nly. Clouds shud clear this eve for UIN/COU which shud
allow for FG to develop. Have kept vsbys in the MVFR range for now
as some question as to how low vsbys will get with the nly wind.
FG shud clear out by mid morning on Tues. For SUS/CPS, guidance
suggests cigs will lower this eve to IFR and remain into Tues
morning. Believe these cigs will clear out quickly with some
diurnal CU possible, but shud remain SCT.

Specifics for KSTL: Approaching cdfnt will bring a chance for TSRA
this afternoon. With lack of insolation ahead of the fnt, there is
a lot of uncertainty regarding coverage of storms. Have kept VCTS
mention for now. Upstream obs and guidance suggests low MVFR to
IFR cigs will move into the region behind the fnt with winds
becoming nly. Guidance suggests cigs will lower this eve to IFR
and remain into Tues morning. Believe these cigs will clear out
quickly with some diurnal CU possible, but shud remain SCT.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 152247
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
547 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 545 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

Quick update to the forecast this evening to account for area of
drizzle that has developed in the wake of the front.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

Focus tonight will be RA/DZ and FG development.

Sfc low and fnt are slowly moving thru the region this afternoon.
Mdls are in good agreement with this system pulling out of the
region this eve. Behind the fnt, low clouds and DZ linger with an
isod shower. Will keep slight chance PoPs for portions of the CWA
this evening, then mention DZ and FG overnight. Mdls suggest nrn
portions of the CWA will clear out this eve allowing temps to
quickly drop and FG to potentially form. Uncertainty remains how
low vsbys will drop as nly winds will help advect dry air into the
region. Have added patchy FG for areas along and N of a line from
KJEF to KPPQ. Elsewhere, will leave mention of DZ with low clouds
lingering thru the night and based on upstream obs. This line,
between FG and DZ, may need to be moved as the evening progresses.


Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

(Tuesday through Thursday)

Some patchy fog and drizzle will persist through mid morning Tuesday
before mixing kicks in and skies begin to clear.  Then expect
dry weather the rest of the day and on Tuesday night as we will lie
under neutral or subsident motion under northwesterly flow aloft.
Still expect scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and
Wednesday night over central and southeast Missouri as the
GFS/NAM/ECMWF are all in good agreement that a weak shortwave will
move southeast across Missouri late in the day.  This system will
have some corresponding low level moisture convergence to support
it.  Have left Thursday dry as upper ridge will be building into the
area from the west.

High temperatures are mainly a blend of MOS guidance which are
supported by mixing down 900mb temperatures.  Low temperatures
follow the agreeable MOS guidance.

(Friday through Monday)

Still expect temperatures to warm up to near normal on Friday and
Saturday as both the GFS and ECMWF are still progging 850mb
temperatures to reach the mid teens Celsius.  Friday still looks dry
before ascent increases ahead of a trough that will move through the
area over the weekend.  There is less agreement today than yesterday
with the details of the operational GFS and ECMWF regarding the
speed and depth of this upper trough.  Either way, it still appears
that a there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms over the
area Saturday into Sunday as the attendant cold front moves across
the area.  By next Monday, the ECMWF is showing colder air working
into the area behind a deeper upper air trough than the GFS.  Will
lean toward climatology for temperatures behind the front for early
next week.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

Approaching cdfnt will bring a chance for TSRA to COU/SUS/CPS this
afternoon. With lack of insolation ahead of the fnt, there is a
lot of uncertainty regarding coverage of storms. Have kept VCTS
mention for now. Upstream obs and guidance suggests low MVFR to
IFR cigs will move into the region behind the fnt with winds
becoming nly. Clouds shud clear this eve for UIN/COU which shud
allow for FG to develop. Have kept vsbys in the MVFR range for now
as some question as to how low vsbys will get with the nly wind.
FG shud clear out by mid morning on Tues. For SUS/CPS, guidance
suggests cigs will lower this eve to IFR and remain into Tues
morning. Believe these cigs will clear out quickly with some
diurnal CU possible, but shud remain SCT.

Specifics for KSTL: Approaching cdfnt will bring a chance for TSRA
this afternoon. With lack of insolation ahead of the fnt, there is
a lot of uncertainty regarding coverage of storms. Have kept VCTS
mention for now. Upstream obs and guidance suggests low MVFR to
IFR cigs will move into the region behind the fnt with winds
becoming nly. Guidance suggests cigs will lower this eve to IFR
and remain into Tues morning. Believe these cigs will clear out
quickly with some diurnal CU possible, but shud remain SCT.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 152003
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
303 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

Focus tonight will be RA/DZ and FG development.

Sfc low and fnt are slowly moving thru the region this afternoon.
Mdls are in good agreement with this system pulling out of the
region this eve. Behind the fnt, low clouds and DZ linger with an
isod shower. Will keep slight chance PoPs for portions of the CWA
this evening, then mention DZ and FG overnight. Mdls suggest nrn
portions of the CWA will clear out this eve allowing temps to
quickly drop and FG to potentially form. Uncertainty remains how
low vsbys will drop as nly winds will help advect dry air into the
region. Have added patchy FG for areas along and N of a line from
KJEF to KPPQ. Elsewhere, will leave mention of DZ with low clouds
lingering thru the night and based on upstream obs. This line,
between FG and DZ, may need to be moved as the evening progresses.


Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

(Tuesday through Thursday)

Some patchy fog and drizzle will persist through mid morning Tuesday
before mixing kicks in and skies begin to clear.  Then expect
dry weather the rest of the day and on Tuesday night as we will lie
under neutral or subsident motion under northwesterly flow aloft.
Still expect scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and
Wednesday night over central and southeast Missouri as the
GFS/NAM/ECMWF are all in good agreement that a weak shortwave will
move southeast across Missouri late in the day.  This system will
have some corresponding low level moisture convergence to support
it.  Have left Thursday dry as upper ridge will be building into the
area from the west.

High temperatures are mainly a blend of MOS guidance which are
supported by mixing down 900mb temperatures.  Low temperatures
follow the agreeable MOS guidance.

(Friday through Monday)

Still expect temperatures to warm up to near normal on Friday and
Saturday as both the GFS and ECMWF are still progging 850mb
temperatures to reach the mid teens Celsius.  Friday still looks dry
before ascent increases ahead of a trough that will move through the
area over the weekend.  There is less agreement today than yesterday
with the details of the operational GFS and ECMWF regarding the
speed and depth of this upper trough.  Either way, it still appears
that a there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms over the
area Saturday into Sunday as the attendant cold front moves across
the area.  By next Monday, the ECMWF is showing colder air working
into the area behind a deeper upper air trough than the GFS.  Will
lean toward climatology for temperatures behind the front for early
next week.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

Approaching cdfnt will bring a chance for TSRA to COU/SUS/CPS this
afternoon. With lack of insolation ahead of the fnt, there is a
lot of uncertainty regarding coverage of storms. Have kept VCTS
mention for now. Upstream obs and guidance suggests low MVFR to
IFR cigs will move into the region behind the fnt with winds
becoming nly. Clouds shud clear this eve for UIN/COU which shud
allow for FG to develop. Have kept vsbys in the MVFR range for now
as some question as to how low vsbys will get with the nly wind.
FG shud clear out by mid morning on Tues. For SUS/CPS, guidance
suggests cigs will lower this eve to IFR and remain into Tues
morning. Believe these cigs will clear out quickly with some
diurnal CU possible, but shud remain SCT.

Specifics for KSTL: Approaching cdfnt will bring a chance for TSRA
this afternoon. With lack of insolation ahead of the fnt, there is
a lot of uncertainty regarding coverage of storms. Have kept VCTS
mention for now. Upstream obs and guidance suggests low MVFR to
IFR cigs will move into the region behind the fnt with winds
becoming nly. Guidance suggests cigs will lower this eve to IFR
and remain into Tues morning. Believe these cigs will clear out
quickly with some diurnal CU possible, but shud remain SCT.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 151947
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
247 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A cold front is moving into the area this afternoon and evening.
The front as of mid afternoon was located just north of Chanute
Kansas to just north of the Lake of the Ozarks region. Sunshine
has warmed temperatures in the lower 80s over portions of
southeast Kansas and southern Missouri. Will mention the chance
for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop by
late afternoon along the front as it moves through this evening.
Minor convection was beginning to develop on radar along the front as
of this discussion.

The majority of the showers will dissipate by late evening. The
forecast sounding suggest a good signal for low clouds and patchy
drizzle after midnight through early tomorrow morning especially
on the Ozark Plateau.

The front will stall out just to our south on Tuesday. Tuesday
will be mostly cloudy and rather cool with highs in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 225 PM
CDT MON SEP 15 2014

The front will back up as a warm front late Tuesday night with the
help of a low level jet up to 40 knots. A mid level impulse will
ride along the northwest flow and interact with the frontal
boundary and low level jet. Bulk shear will be around 35 knots and MUCape
values approaching 2000 J/KG. Elevated convection will develop
over southeast Kansas and western Missouri after midnight Tuesday
night through Wednesday morning. A few strong storms can not be
ruled out with sub severe hail the main threat...up to nickel size
possible.

Additional scattered showers and storms will be possible Wednesday
night and Thursday as the front remains stalled across the area. The
front will finally wash out late Thursday and Friday as upper
level ridging will move over the area. Temperatures will warm back
up into the lower 80s by the end of the week.

A trough will dig down across the northern plains region into the
Midwest by Saturday. This will bring down a cold front late
Saturday and Saturday night. This front will bring another round
of showers and thunderstorms this weekend followed by another cool
down behind the front Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Isolated thunderstorm over central MO will likely shift east-
southeast and miss much of the CWA and should remain well
northeast of the 3 terminals. However, a cold front will track
south through the area this afternoon/evening and could bring
widely scattered showers/thunderstorms to the area. For now, will
go with VCTS/CB coding in the 18z TAFS for SGF/JLN for late
afternoon/early evening which will be along the frontal boundary.
Looking like stratus will move in behind the front later this
evening with IFR conditions possible through the overnight hours.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KEAX 151945
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
245 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER AND PATCHY DRIZZLE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY COOL
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS. HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG
MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-70 WERE RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST.
TOMORROW WILL BE COOL YET NICE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AS A
SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE CWA. THE CURRENT COLD FRONT WILL STALL
TO OUR SOUTH AND SLOWLY MIX NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
THE PROGGED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE, I MAINTAIN THE
ONGOING POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS VERY LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA APPEARS TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING THE HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE RATHER
MILD AND BREEZY AS THE REGION BECOMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
RAPIDLY MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE OUR BEST SHOT AT SEEING WIDESPREAD
RAINS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE BEST
LIFT/DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA, THE SYSTEM WILL
HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS MUCH OF THE MOISTURE SOURCE
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT IS CURRENTLY HRCN ODILE. SUNDAY SHOULD
DRY OUT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

IFR to MVFR CIGS should continue for a few more hours along with
patchy drizzle as a cold front is currently moving through the
region. Behind the front north to northeast winds will develop and
persist overnight along with CIGS and VIS improving to VFR. However,
patchy fog is anticipated to develop before dawn before mixing out
by around 15Z. VFR CIGS and VIS and light southeasterly winds are
anticipated through the day tomorrow.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Pietrycha






000
FXUS63 KLSX 151750
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1250 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

Shower and thunderstorm trends are the primary forecast problem for
today.  Definite lack of activity so far in our CWA as of 08z,
however impact of the veering low level jet and moisture advection
is just now starting in earnest over our CWA, so still believe that
elevated storms that developed in sw IA around 06z will be trying to
build south with time with some of this precipitation area impacting
northern sections of our CWA.  The latest HRRR, local WRF, as well
as some of the 00z synoptic models are also suggesting lesser/much
spottier development is also possible further south along and south
of the I-70 corridor over the next few hours, and don`t think this
consensus can be totally discounted with some showers currently
south of SGF.

With the primary zone of warm advection/isentropic ascent shifting
to our east during the afternoon, southward pushing cold front
should be the primary trigger for additional showers and
thunderstorms.  I have held onto a zone of likely PoPs in the
vicinity of the front, but it may be these values will be a bit too
high, especially if the warm layer depicted by the GFS between
700-750mb comes to fruition.

Have used a variety of 3 hourly temperature guidance trying to
capture impacts of the aforementioned precip trends as well as that
of the cold front over northern sections of the CWA.  Highs are
expected to range from the middle 60s in our n counties to the 75-80
degree range south of the Missouri River.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

Cold front should make it southeastward to around STL by 00z
Tuesday. There will be scattered showers along and just behind
this front as it continues to move southeastward through southeast
MO and southwest IL this evening. It does not appear that there
will be much precipitation left by late tonight as a surface ridge
builds southeastward into our area behind the front with cooler
and drier air filtering into MO and IL. It should be dry for
Tuesday and Tuesday evening, then showers may return to at least
portions of central and southeast MO late Tuesday night and
Wednesday as weak low-mid level warm air advection ahead of a weak
northwest flow shortwave intercepts return low level moisture on
the backside of the surface ridge shifting east of our area. The
eastward extent of this precipitation is in question. The models
keep most of their qpf west of the Mississippi river. Warmer
temperatures are expected for Friday as as upper level ridge over
the southwestern US shifts eastward into our area along with
strengthening surface/low level southerly winds. Convection should
return to the region Saturday afternoon and night as a strong
shortwave breaks down the upper level ridge and sends a cold front
southeastward through our forecast area Saturday night and Sunday
morning. Prefer the ECMWF model during this time period as the GFS
has some feedback problems and generates a surface low along the
front that is likely too deep and has too much qpf.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

Approaching cdfnt will bring a chance for TSRA to COU/SUS/CPS this
afternoon. With lack of insolation ahead of the fnt, there is a
lot of uncertainty regarding coverage of storms. Have kept VCTS
mention for now. Upstream obs and guidance suggests low MVFR to
IFR cigs will move into the region behind the fnt with winds
becoming nly. Clouds shud clear this eve for UIN/COU which shud
allow for FG to develop. Have kept vsbys in the MVFR range for now
as some question as to how low vsbys will get with the nly wind.
FG shud clear out by mid morning on Tues. For SUS/CPS, guidance
suggests cigs will lower this eve to IFR and remain into Tues
morning. Believe these cigs will clear out quickly with some
diurnal CU possible, but shud remain SCT.

Specifics for KSTL: Approaching cdfnt will bring a chance for TSRA
this afternoon. With lack of insolation ahead of the fnt, there is
a lot of uncertainty regarding coverage of storms. Have kept VCTS
mention for now. Upstream obs and guidance suggests low MVFR to
IFR cigs will move into the region behind the fnt with winds
becoming nly. Guidance suggests cigs will lower this eve to IFR
and remain into Tues morning. Believe these cigs will clear out
quickly with some diurnal CU possible, but shud remain SCT.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 151750
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1250 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

Shower and thunderstorm trends are the primary forecast problem for
today.  Definite lack of activity so far in our CWA as of 08z,
however impact of the veering low level jet and moisture advection
is just now starting in earnest over our CWA, so still believe that
elevated storms that developed in sw IA around 06z will be trying to
build south with time with some of this precipitation area impacting
northern sections of our CWA.  The latest HRRR, local WRF, as well
as some of the 00z synoptic models are also suggesting lesser/much
spottier development is also possible further south along and south
of the I-70 corridor over the next few hours, and don`t think this
consensus can be totally discounted with some showers currently
south of SGF.

With the primary zone of warm advection/isentropic ascent shifting
to our east during the afternoon, southward pushing cold front
should be the primary trigger for additional showers and
thunderstorms.  I have held onto a zone of likely PoPs in the
vicinity of the front, but it may be these values will be a bit too
high, especially if the warm layer depicted by the GFS between
700-750mb comes to fruition.

Have used a variety of 3 hourly temperature guidance trying to
capture impacts of the aforementioned precip trends as well as that
of the cold front over northern sections of the CWA.  Highs are
expected to range from the middle 60s in our n counties to the 75-80
degree range south of the Missouri River.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

Cold front should make it southeastward to around STL by 00z
Tuesday. There will be scattered showers along and just behind
this front as it continues to move southeastward through southeast
MO and southwest IL this evening. It does not appear that there
will be much precipitation left by late tonight as a surface ridge
builds southeastward into our area behind the front with cooler
and drier air filtering into MO and IL. It should be dry for
Tuesday and Tuesday evening, then showers may return to at least
portions of central and southeast MO late Tuesday night and
Wednesday as weak low-mid level warm air advection ahead of a weak
northwest flow shortwave intercepts return low level moisture on
the backside of the surface ridge shifting east of our area. The
eastward extent of this precipitation is in question. The models
keep most of their qpf west of the Mississippi river. Warmer
temperatures are expected for Friday as as upper level ridge over
the southwestern US shifts eastward into our area along with
strengthening surface/low level southerly winds. Convection should
return to the region Saturday afternoon and night as a strong
shortwave breaks down the upper level ridge and sends a cold front
southeastward through our forecast area Saturday night and Sunday
morning. Prefer the ECMWF model during this time period as the GFS
has some feedback problems and generates a surface low along the
front that is likely too deep and has too much qpf.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

Approaching cdfnt will bring a chance for TSRA to COU/SUS/CPS this
afternoon. With lack of insolation ahead of the fnt, there is a
lot of uncertainty regarding coverage of storms. Have kept VCTS
mention for now. Upstream obs and guidance suggests low MVFR to
IFR cigs will move into the region behind the fnt with winds
becoming nly. Clouds shud clear this eve for UIN/COU which shud
allow for FG to develop. Have kept vsbys in the MVFR range for now
as some question as to how low vsbys will get with the nly wind.
FG shud clear out by mid morning on Tues. For SUS/CPS, guidance
suggests cigs will lower this eve to IFR and remain into Tues
morning. Believe these cigs will clear out quickly with some
diurnal CU possible, but shud remain SCT.

Specifics for KSTL: Approaching cdfnt will bring a chance for TSRA
this afternoon. With lack of insolation ahead of the fnt, there is
a lot of uncertainty regarding coverage of storms. Have kept VCTS
mention for now. Upstream obs and guidance suggests low MVFR to
IFR cigs will move into the region behind the fnt with winds
becoming nly. Guidance suggests cigs will lower this eve to IFR
and remain into Tues morning. Believe these cigs will clear out
quickly with some diurnal CU possible, but shud remain SCT.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 151750
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1250 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

Shower and thunderstorm trends are the primary forecast problem for
today.  Definite lack of activity so far in our CWA as of 08z,
however impact of the veering low level jet and moisture advection
is just now starting in earnest over our CWA, so still believe that
elevated storms that developed in sw IA around 06z will be trying to
build south with time with some of this precipitation area impacting
northern sections of our CWA.  The latest HRRR, local WRF, as well
as some of the 00z synoptic models are also suggesting lesser/much
spottier development is also possible further south along and south
of the I-70 corridor over the next few hours, and don`t think this
consensus can be totally discounted with some showers currently
south of SGF.

With the primary zone of warm advection/isentropic ascent shifting
to our east during the afternoon, southward pushing cold front
should be the primary trigger for additional showers and
thunderstorms.  I have held onto a zone of likely PoPs in the
vicinity of the front, but it may be these values will be a bit too
high, especially if the warm layer depicted by the GFS between
700-750mb comes to fruition.

Have used a variety of 3 hourly temperature guidance trying to
capture impacts of the aforementioned precip trends as well as that
of the cold front over northern sections of the CWA.  Highs are
expected to range from the middle 60s in our n counties to the 75-80
degree range south of the Missouri River.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

Cold front should make it southeastward to around STL by 00z
Tuesday. There will be scattered showers along and just behind
this front as it continues to move southeastward through southeast
MO and southwest IL this evening. It does not appear that there
will be much precipitation left by late tonight as a surface ridge
builds southeastward into our area behind the front with cooler
and drier air filtering into MO and IL. It should be dry for
Tuesday and Tuesday evening, then showers may return to at least
portions of central and southeast MO late Tuesday night and
Wednesday as weak low-mid level warm air advection ahead of a weak
northwest flow shortwave intercepts return low level moisture on
the backside of the surface ridge shifting east of our area. The
eastward extent of this precipitation is in question. The models
keep most of their qpf west of the Mississippi river. Warmer
temperatures are expected for Friday as as upper level ridge over
the southwestern US shifts eastward into our area along with
strengthening surface/low level southerly winds. Convection should
return to the region Saturday afternoon and night as a strong
shortwave breaks down the upper level ridge and sends a cold front
southeastward through our forecast area Saturday night and Sunday
morning. Prefer the ECMWF model during this time period as the GFS
has some feedback problems and generates a surface low along the
front that is likely too deep and has too much qpf.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

Approaching cdfnt will bring a chance for TSRA to COU/SUS/CPS this
afternoon. With lack of insolation ahead of the fnt, there is a
lot of uncertainty regarding coverage of storms. Have kept VCTS
mention for now. Upstream obs and guidance suggests low MVFR to
IFR cigs will move into the region behind the fnt with winds
becoming nly. Clouds shud clear this eve for UIN/COU which shud
allow for FG to develop. Have kept vsbys in the MVFR range for now
as some question as to how low vsbys will get with the nly wind.
FG shud clear out by mid morning on Tues. For SUS/CPS, guidance
suggests cigs will lower this eve to IFR and remain into Tues
morning. Believe these cigs will clear out quickly with some
diurnal CU possible, but shud remain SCT.

Specifics for KSTL: Approaching cdfnt will bring a chance for TSRA
this afternoon. With lack of insolation ahead of the fnt, there is
a lot of uncertainty regarding coverage of storms. Have kept VCTS
mention for now. Upstream obs and guidance suggests low MVFR to
IFR cigs will move into the region behind the fnt with winds
becoming nly. Guidance suggests cigs will lower this eve to IFR
and remain into Tues morning. Believe these cigs will clear out
quickly with some diurnal CU possible, but shud remain SCT.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 151750
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1250 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

Shower and thunderstorm trends are the primary forecast problem for
today.  Definite lack of activity so far in our CWA as of 08z,
however impact of the veering low level jet and moisture advection
is just now starting in earnest over our CWA, so still believe that
elevated storms that developed in sw IA around 06z will be trying to
build south with time with some of this precipitation area impacting
northern sections of our CWA.  The latest HRRR, local WRF, as well
as some of the 00z synoptic models are also suggesting lesser/much
spottier development is also possible further south along and south
of the I-70 corridor over the next few hours, and don`t think this
consensus can be totally discounted with some showers currently
south of SGF.

With the primary zone of warm advection/isentropic ascent shifting
to our east during the afternoon, southward pushing cold front
should be the primary trigger for additional showers and
thunderstorms.  I have held onto a zone of likely PoPs in the
vicinity of the front, but it may be these values will be a bit too
high, especially if the warm layer depicted by the GFS between
700-750mb comes to fruition.

Have used a variety of 3 hourly temperature guidance trying to
capture impacts of the aforementioned precip trends as well as that
of the cold front over northern sections of the CWA.  Highs are
expected to range from the middle 60s in our n counties to the 75-80
degree range south of the Missouri River.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

Cold front should make it southeastward to around STL by 00z
Tuesday. There will be scattered showers along and just behind
this front as it continues to move southeastward through southeast
MO and southwest IL this evening. It does not appear that there
will be much precipitation left by late tonight as a surface ridge
builds southeastward into our area behind the front with cooler
and drier air filtering into MO and IL. It should be dry for
Tuesday and Tuesday evening, then showers may return to at least
portions of central and southeast MO late Tuesday night and
Wednesday as weak low-mid level warm air advection ahead of a weak
northwest flow shortwave intercepts return low level moisture on
the backside of the surface ridge shifting east of our area. The
eastward extent of this precipitation is in question. The models
keep most of their qpf west of the Mississippi river. Warmer
temperatures are expected for Friday as as upper level ridge over
the southwestern US shifts eastward into our area along with
strengthening surface/low level southerly winds. Convection should
return to the region Saturday afternoon and night as a strong
shortwave breaks down the upper level ridge and sends a cold front
southeastward through our forecast area Saturday night and Sunday
morning. Prefer the ECMWF model during this time period as the GFS
has some feedback problems and generates a surface low along the
front that is likely too deep and has too much qpf.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

Approaching cdfnt will bring a chance for TSRA to COU/SUS/CPS this
afternoon. With lack of insolation ahead of the fnt, there is a
lot of uncertainty regarding coverage of storms. Have kept VCTS
mention for now. Upstream obs and guidance suggests low MVFR to
IFR cigs will move into the region behind the fnt with winds
becoming nly. Clouds shud clear this eve for UIN/COU which shud
allow for FG to develop. Have kept vsbys in the MVFR range for now
as some question as to how low vsbys will get with the nly wind.
FG shud clear out by mid morning on Tues. For SUS/CPS, guidance
suggests cigs will lower this eve to IFR and remain into Tues
morning. Believe these cigs will clear out quickly with some
diurnal CU possible, but shud remain SCT.

Specifics for KSTL: Approaching cdfnt will bring a chance for TSRA
this afternoon. With lack of insolation ahead of the fnt, there is
a lot of uncertainty regarding coverage of storms. Have kept VCTS
mention for now. Upstream obs and guidance suggests low MVFR to
IFR cigs will move into the region behind the fnt with winds
becoming nly. Guidance suggests cigs will lower this eve to IFR
and remain into Tues morning. Believe these cigs will clear out
quickly with some diurnal CU possible, but shud remain SCT.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 151737
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1237 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Today/Tonight: As of early this morning, scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms were developing over northwest Missouri into
portions of Iowa and Nebraska. This was in response to increasing
large scale ascent ahead of a shortwave trough located over the
eastern Dakotas and weak warm air advection. Thus far, convective
coverage has been rather underwhelming compared to solutions from
earlier model runs. The latest guidance depicts a drier tropospheric
profile and likewise much less QPF generation. Based on the current
trends, hard to disagree with trending a little lower on
precipitation chances for today. However, still expect some increase
in convective activity over the forecast area, potentially
before/around sunrise, as continued moistening and warm air
advection upon a 35kt veered low level jet yield a somewhat
conducive environment. Otherwise, a shallow convective band of
showers and isolated thunderstorms should evolve along the surface
cold front as it pushes southward, although the highest probabilities
for precipitation may reside just south of the CWA by late
afternoon. Temperatures today will be coolest north of Interstate 70
where cloud cover and cooler air advecting into the area upon the
frontal passage will keep highs in the mainly in the 60s, with
middle 70s expected over the southern half of the area. Cloud cover
will clear from north to south during the afternoon/evening hours as
drier air move into the region, eventually becoming clear overnight.
Surface high pressure will settle into the region tonight, and with
a good radiational cooling environment, expect to see low
temperatures fall into the 40s in many locations.

Tuesday/Wednesday: High pressure slowly moves off to the east of the
area on Tuesday, providing a cool post-frontal day with mostly sunny
skies and high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The
frontal boundary will begin to retreat northward Tuesday night over
Kansas, and with isentropic ascent, scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible across the western half of the CWA.
Moisture will continue to move back into the area on Wednesday, with
continued chances for convection during the day. Maximum readings
will be warmer, with highs in the 70s area wide.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Northwest cyclonic flow at the start of the period will quickly be
replaced by building heights as mid-level high pressure takes form
across the southern Plains. Closer to the surface...a stalled
north-south oriented frontal boundary will serve as a focus for
early morning showers and thunderstorms as strengthening warm air
advection interacts with said front. Based on good agreement between
the operational long range models...have maintained slgt chc-chc
mention across the western and southern third of the fcst area early
Thursday morning. Lingering shwrs/storms will quickly be replaced by
warming temps Thursday afternoon as 850 temps range anywhere from
15-18C across the lwr Missouri Vly. This should support middle to
upper 70s across much of the region...with even warmer temps
expected on Friday /upper 70s to lower 80s/ as warm air advection
continues. Fairly big pattern change anticipated by the weekend as
upper ridging breaks down and CONUS flow becomes increasingly split
as large upper low takes shape over California. As this
occurs...increasing southwest flow across the eastern Pacific will
allow the remnants of Hurricane Odile to translate northeast with
time over the Desert Southwest...central Rockies...and eventually
into the central Plains. Meanwhile...a frontal boundary associated
with a northern stream disturbance will begin approaching from the
northwest which should eventually allow deep tropical moisture
associated with the remnant tropical system into our area.
Surprisingly...fcst models are very much in agreement on this
scenario and thus have maintained high chc pops Saturday into
Saturday night across much of the region. Beyond this...strong high
pressure to build in from the northern Plains which will provide dry
and cool conditions through the conclusion of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

IFR to MVFR CIGS should continue for a few more hours along with
patchy drizzle as a cold front is currently moving through the
region. Behind the front north to northeast winds will develop and
persist overnight along with CIGS and VIS improving to VFR. However,
patchy fog is anticipated to develop before dawn before mixing out
by around 15Z. VFR CIGS and VIS and light southeasterly winds are
anticipated through the day tomorrow.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...Pietrycha






000
FXUS63 KEAX 151737
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1237 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Today/Tonight: As of early this morning, scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms were developing over northwest Missouri into
portions of Iowa and Nebraska. This was in response to increasing
large scale ascent ahead of a shortwave trough located over the
eastern Dakotas and weak warm air advection. Thus far, convective
coverage has been rather underwhelming compared to solutions from
earlier model runs. The latest guidance depicts a drier tropospheric
profile and likewise much less QPF generation. Based on the current
trends, hard to disagree with trending a little lower on
precipitation chances for today. However, still expect some increase
in convective activity over the forecast area, potentially
before/around sunrise, as continued moistening and warm air
advection upon a 35kt veered low level jet yield a somewhat
conducive environment. Otherwise, a shallow convective band of
showers and isolated thunderstorms should evolve along the surface
cold front as it pushes southward, although the highest probabilities
for precipitation may reside just south of the CWA by late
afternoon. Temperatures today will be coolest north of Interstate 70
where cloud cover and cooler air advecting into the area upon the
frontal passage will keep highs in the mainly in the 60s, with
middle 70s expected over the southern half of the area. Cloud cover
will clear from north to south during the afternoon/evening hours as
drier air move into the region, eventually becoming clear overnight.
Surface high pressure will settle into the region tonight, and with
a good radiational cooling environment, expect to see low
temperatures fall into the 40s in many locations.

Tuesday/Wednesday: High pressure slowly moves off to the east of the
area on Tuesday, providing a cool post-frontal day with mostly sunny
skies and high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The
frontal boundary will begin to retreat northward Tuesday night over
Kansas, and with isentropic ascent, scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible across the western half of the CWA.
Moisture will continue to move back into the area on Wednesday, with
continued chances for convection during the day. Maximum readings
will be warmer, with highs in the 70s area wide.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Northwest cyclonic flow at the start of the period will quickly be
replaced by building heights as mid-level high pressure takes form
across the southern Plains. Closer to the surface...a stalled
north-south oriented frontal boundary will serve as a focus for
early morning showers and thunderstorms as strengthening warm air
advection interacts with said front. Based on good agreement between
the operational long range models...have maintained slgt chc-chc
mention across the western and southern third of the fcst area early
Thursday morning. Lingering shwrs/storms will quickly be replaced by
warming temps Thursday afternoon as 850 temps range anywhere from
15-18C across the lwr Missouri Vly. This should support middle to
upper 70s across much of the region...with even warmer temps
expected on Friday /upper 70s to lower 80s/ as warm air advection
continues. Fairly big pattern change anticipated by the weekend as
upper ridging breaks down and CONUS flow becomes increasingly split
as large upper low takes shape over California. As this
occurs...increasing southwest flow across the eastern Pacific will
allow the remnants of Hurricane Odile to translate northeast with
time over the Desert Southwest...central Rockies...and eventually
into the central Plains. Meanwhile...a frontal boundary associated
with a northern stream disturbance will begin approaching from the
northwest which should eventually allow deep tropical moisture
associated with the remnant tropical system into our area.
Surprisingly...fcst models are very much in agreement on this
scenario and thus have maintained high chc pops Saturday into
Saturday night across much of the region. Beyond this...strong high
pressure to build in from the northern Plains which will provide dry
and cool conditions through the conclusion of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

IFR to MVFR CIGS should continue for a few more hours along with
patchy drizzle as a cold front is currently moving through the
region. Behind the front north to northeast winds will develop and
persist overnight along with CIGS and VIS improving to VFR. However,
patchy fog is anticipated to develop before dawn before mixing out
by around 15Z. VFR CIGS and VIS and light southeasterly winds are
anticipated through the day tomorrow.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...Pietrycha







000
FXUS63 KSGF 151644
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1144 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tuesday night)

A few sprinkles were moving into southern Missouri this morning in
response to weak isentropic ascent over Oklahoma. It`s unlikely
that measurable rainfall will occur with this activity, and we
think the radar echoes will decline through the morning hours.

This will give way to a mostly dry morning across the Ozarks,
under cloudy skies and southerly breezes.

Rain chances however, will increase this afternoon and evening, as
an upper level disturbance forces a cold front into southern
Missouri.

We think sufficient instability will result in some thunderstorms,
particularly along the Interstate 44 corridor late this afternoon.

Eventually this area of rainfall will drift south near the
Arkansas border into the overnight hours. Some models suggest that
convection will persist overnight near the Arkansas border. So we
have left precipitation chances down there into Tuesday morning.

Eventually the stalled out front over Arkansas begins to wash out
and we lose our forcing mechanism for rainfall. This will lead to
dry conditions from Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)

Precipitation chances ramp up again on Wednesday as an upper speed
max passes over a mid level zone of baroclinicity. Additional
showers and thunderstorms will occur, and we think most locations
will receive some measurable rain. Specifically if this same
pattern continues into Thursday, which both the GFS and ECMWF suggests.

By Friday and the upcoming weekend, a ridge of high pressure will
build back into the nation`s mid section. This will result in
mostly dry weather along with a warming trend. As a matter of
fact, readings could trend back into the 80s this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Isolated thunderstorm over central MO will likely shift east-
southeast and miss much of the CWA and should remain well
northeast of the 3 terminals. However, a cold front will track
south through the area this afternoon/evening and could bring
widely scattered showers/thunderstorms to the area. For now, will
go with VCTS/CB coding in the 18z TAFS for SGF/JLN for late
afternoon/early evening which will be along the frontal boundary.
Looking like stratus will move in behind the front later this
evening with IFR conditions possible through the overnight hours.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 151644
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1144 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tuesday night)

A few sprinkles were moving into southern Missouri this morning in
response to weak isentropic ascent over Oklahoma. It`s unlikely
that measurable rainfall will occur with this activity, and we
think the radar echoes will decline through the morning hours.

This will give way to a mostly dry morning across the Ozarks,
under cloudy skies and southerly breezes.

Rain chances however, will increase this afternoon and evening, as
an upper level disturbance forces a cold front into southern
Missouri.

We think sufficient instability will result in some thunderstorms,
particularly along the Interstate 44 corridor late this afternoon.

Eventually this area of rainfall will drift south near the
Arkansas border into the overnight hours. Some models suggest that
convection will persist overnight near the Arkansas border. So we
have left precipitation chances down there into Tuesday morning.

Eventually the stalled out front over Arkansas begins to wash out
and we lose our forcing mechanism for rainfall. This will lead to
dry conditions from Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)

Precipitation chances ramp up again on Wednesday as an upper speed
max passes over a mid level zone of baroclinicity. Additional
showers and thunderstorms will occur, and we think most locations
will receive some measurable rain. Specifically if this same
pattern continues into Thursday, which both the GFS and ECMWF suggests.

By Friday and the upcoming weekend, a ridge of high pressure will
build back into the nation`s mid section. This will result in
mostly dry weather along with a warming trend. As a matter of
fact, readings could trend back into the 80s this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Isolated thunderstorm over central MO will likely shift east-
southeast and miss much of the CWA and should remain well
northeast of the 3 terminals. However, a cold front will track
south through the area this afternoon/evening and could bring
widely scattered showers/thunderstorms to the area. For now, will
go with VCTS/CB coding in the 18z TAFS for SGF/JLN for late
afternoon/early evening which will be along the frontal boundary.
Looking like stratus will move in behind the front later this
evening with IFR conditions possible through the overnight hours.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 151202
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
702 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tuesday night)

A few sprinkles were moving into southern Missouri this morning in
response to weak isentropic ascent over Oklahoma. It`s unlikely
that measurable rainfall will occur with this activity, and we
think the radar echoes will decline through the morning hours.

This will give way to a mostly dry morning across the Ozarks,
under cloudy skies and southerly breezes.

Rain chances however, will increase this afternoon and evening, as
an upper level disturbance forces a cold front into southern
Missouri.

We think sufficient instability will result in some thunderstorms,
particularly along the Interstate 44 corridor late this afternoon.

Eventually this area of rainfall will drift south near the
Arkansas border into the overnight hours. Some models suggest that
convection will persist overnight near the Arkansas border. So we
have left precipitation chances down there into Tuesday morning.

Eventually the stalled out front over Arkansas begins to wash out
and we lose our forcing mechanism for rainfall. This will lead to
dry conditions from Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)

Precipitation chances ramp up again on Wednesday as an upper speed
max passes over a mid level zone of baroclinicity. Additional
showers and thunderstorms will occur, and we think most locations
will receive some measurable rain. Specifically if this same
pattern continues into Thursday, which both the GFS and ECMWF suggests.

By Friday and the upcoming weekend, a ridge of high pressure will
build back into the nation`s mid section. This will result in
mostly dry weather along with a warming trend. As a matter of
fact, readings could trend back into the 80s this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A cold front will move through the
area during the 20z-01z time frame. VFR conditions will occur ahead
of the front with veering winds. Winds may be moderately gusty at
times. Maintained the chances for shra/tsra near and just behind
the front, but chances for a prolonged reduction in visibility with
heavier showers will be short lived at best. Ceilings will lower
behind the front late in the taf period with low level cooling and
remaining moisture. SREF pretty close to 50-50 on ifr cigs so, for
now, went low end mvfr and will watch fcst and observed trends.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KSGF 151202
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
702 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tuesday night)

A few sprinkles were moving into southern Missouri this morning in
response to weak isentropic ascent over Oklahoma. It`s unlikely
that measurable rainfall will occur with this activity, and we
think the radar echoes will decline through the morning hours.

This will give way to a mostly dry morning across the Ozarks,
under cloudy skies and southerly breezes.

Rain chances however, will increase this afternoon and evening, as
an upper level disturbance forces a cold front into southern
Missouri.

We think sufficient instability will result in some thunderstorms,
particularly along the Interstate 44 corridor late this afternoon.

Eventually this area of rainfall will drift south near the
Arkansas border into the overnight hours. Some models suggest that
convection will persist overnight near the Arkansas border. So we
have left precipitation chances down there into Tuesday morning.

Eventually the stalled out front over Arkansas begins to wash out
and we lose our forcing mechanism for rainfall. This will lead to
dry conditions from Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)

Precipitation chances ramp up again on Wednesday as an upper speed
max passes over a mid level zone of baroclinicity. Additional
showers and thunderstorms will occur, and we think most locations
will receive some measurable rain. Specifically if this same
pattern continues into Thursday, which both the GFS and ECMWF suggests.

By Friday and the upcoming weekend, a ridge of high pressure will
build back into the nation`s mid section. This will result in
mostly dry weather along with a warming trend. As a matter of
fact, readings could trend back into the 80s this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A cold front will move through the
area during the 20z-01z time frame. VFR conditions will occur ahead
of the front with veering winds. Winds may be moderately gusty at
times. Maintained the chances for shra/tsra near and just behind
the front, but chances for a prolonged reduction in visibility with
heavier showers will be short lived at best. Ceilings will lower
behind the front late in the taf period with low level cooling and
remaining moisture. SREF pretty close to 50-50 on ifr cigs so, for
now, went low end mvfr and will watch fcst and observed trends.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KLSX 151201
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
701 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

Shower and thunderstorm trends are the primary forecast problem for
today.  Definite lack of activity so far in our CWA as of 08z,
however impact of the veering low level jet and moisture advection
is just now starting in earnest over our CWA, so still believe that
elevated storms that developed in sw IA around 06z will be trying to
build south with time with some of this precipitation area impacting
northern sections of our CWA.  The latest HRRR, local WRF, as well
as some of the 00z synoptic models are also suggesting lesser/much
spottier development is also possible further south along and south
of the I-70 corridor over the next few hours, and don`t think this
consensus can be totally discounted with some showers currently
south of SGF.

With the primary zone of warm advection/isentropic ascent shifting
to our east during the afternoon, southward pushing cold front
should be the primary trigger for additional showers and
thunderstorms.  I have held onto a zone of likely PoPs in the
vicinity of the front, but it may be these values will be a bit too
high, especially if the warm layer depicted by the GFS between
700-750mb comes to fruition.

Have used a variety of 3 hourly temperature guidance trying to
capture impacts of the aforementioned precip trends as well as that
of the cold front over northern sections of the CWA.  Highs are
expected to range from the middle 60s in our n counties to the 75-80
degree range south of the Missouri River.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

Cold front should make it southeastward to around STL by 00z
Tuesday. There will be scattered showers along and just behind
this front as it continues to move southeastward through southeast
MO and southwest IL this evening. It does not appear that there
will be much precipitation left by late tonight as a surface ridge
builds southeastward into our area behind the front with cooler
and drier air filtering into MO and IL. It should be dry for
Tuesday and Tuesday evening, then showers may return to at least
portions of central and southeast MO late Tuesday night and
Wednesday as weak low-mid level warm air advection ahead of a weak
northwest flow shortwave intercepts return low level moisture on
the backside of the surface ridge shifting east of our area. The
eastward extent of this precipitation is in question. The models
keep most of their qpf west of the Mississippi river. Warmer
temperatures are expected for Friday as as upper level ridge over
the southwestern US shifts eastward into our area along with
strengthening surface/low level southerly winds. Convection should
return to the region Saturday afternoon and night as a strong
shortwave breaks down the upper level ridge and sends a cold front
southeastward through our forecast area Saturday night and Sunday
morning. Prefer the ECMWF model during this time period as the GFS
has some feedback problems and generates a surface low along the
front that is likely too deep and has too much qpf.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

Convection has been on a slow but steady increase since the
329am issuance of the short term AFD. Greatest area of development
has been over north central MO in zone of strongest WAA, and this
more concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms should impact
UIN during the morning. Elsewhere have gone with a threat of
elevated shower-type activity, although will need to monitor radar
and lightning trends as a few lightning strikes have occurred
along I-44 southwest of STL metro area. This warm advection precip
should slide east of most TAF sites by midday, with a secondary
threat of convection occurring as the frontal boundary slips
across the CWA. MOS, forecast soundings, as well as SREF cig
probability progs are all suggesting a band of MVFR cigs along and
behind the front for several hours, and this appears reasonable
given the ceiling trends over the last few hours north of the
frontal boundary from se NE into s IA. These lower ceilings should
then sweep out of the area during the overnight hours as much
drier air surges south behind the front. Given the intensity of
the drying, do not believe we`ll have a repeat of last week when
low clouds became locked over the area.

Specifics for KSTL:

Ceilings around 5kft can be expected this morning along with a
few spotty showers. A thunderstorm cannot totally be ruled out,
but lightning trends over the last hour or so strongly suggest
that thunder threat will remain south of terminal forecast area. Cold
front is expected to pass through in the 20-22z time frame with a
chance of thunderstorms at that time, and also expected a rapid
drop in ceilings to around 2kft with the arrival of the colder air.
These MVFR ceilings should persist throughout the evening hours,
then clear out shortly after 06z as much drier air advects into
the area from the north.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 151201
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
701 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

Shower and thunderstorm trends are the primary forecast problem for
today.  Definite lack of activity so far in our CWA as of 08z,
however impact of the veering low level jet and moisture advection
is just now starting in earnest over our CWA, so still believe that
elevated storms that developed in sw IA around 06z will be trying to
build south with time with some of this precipitation area impacting
northern sections of our CWA.  The latest HRRR, local WRF, as well
as some of the 00z synoptic models are also suggesting lesser/much
spottier development is also possible further south along and south
of the I-70 corridor over the next few hours, and don`t think this
consensus can be totally discounted with some showers currently
south of SGF.

With the primary zone of warm advection/isentropic ascent shifting
to our east during the afternoon, southward pushing cold front
should be the primary trigger for additional showers and
thunderstorms.  I have held onto a zone of likely PoPs in the
vicinity of the front, but it may be these values will be a bit too
high, especially if the warm layer depicted by the GFS between
700-750mb comes to fruition.

Have used a variety of 3 hourly temperature guidance trying to
capture impacts of the aforementioned precip trends as well as that
of the cold front over northern sections of the CWA.  Highs are
expected to range from the middle 60s in our n counties to the 75-80
degree range south of the Missouri River.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

Cold front should make it southeastward to around STL by 00z
Tuesday. There will be scattered showers along and just behind
this front as it continues to move southeastward through southeast
MO and southwest IL this evening. It does not appear that there
will be much precipitation left by late tonight as a surface ridge
builds southeastward into our area behind the front with cooler
and drier air filtering into MO and IL. It should be dry for
Tuesday and Tuesday evening, then showers may return to at least
portions of central and southeast MO late Tuesday night and
Wednesday as weak low-mid level warm air advection ahead of a weak
northwest flow shortwave intercepts return low level moisture on
the backside of the surface ridge shifting east of our area. The
eastward extent of this precipitation is in question. The models
keep most of their qpf west of the Mississippi river. Warmer
temperatures are expected for Friday as as upper level ridge over
the southwestern US shifts eastward into our area along with
strengthening surface/low level southerly winds. Convection should
return to the region Saturday afternoon and night as a strong
shortwave breaks down the upper level ridge and sends a cold front
southeastward through our forecast area Saturday night and Sunday
morning. Prefer the ECMWF model during this time period as the GFS
has some feedback problems and generates a surface low along the
front that is likely too deep and has too much qpf.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

Convection has been on a slow but steady increase since the
329am issuance of the short term AFD. Greatest area of development
has been over north central MO in zone of strongest WAA, and this
more concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms should impact
UIN during the morning. Elsewhere have gone with a threat of
elevated shower-type activity, although will need to monitor radar
and lightning trends as a few lightning strikes have occurred
along I-44 southwest of STL metro area. This warm advection precip
should slide east of most TAF sites by midday, with a secondary
threat of convection occurring as the frontal boundary slips
across the CWA. MOS, forecast soundings, as well as SREF cig
probability progs are all suggesting a band of MVFR cigs along and
behind the front for several hours, and this appears reasonable
given the ceiling trends over the last few hours north of the
frontal boundary from se NE into s IA. These lower ceilings should
then sweep out of the area during the overnight hours as much
drier air surges south behind the front. Given the intensity of
the drying, do not believe we`ll have a repeat of last week when
low clouds became locked over the area.

Specifics for KSTL:

Ceilings around 5kft can be expected this morning along with a
few spotty showers. A thunderstorm cannot totally be ruled out,
but lightning trends over the last hour or so strongly suggest
that thunder threat will remain south of terminal forecast area. Cold
front is expected to pass through in the 20-22z time frame with a
chance of thunderstorms at that time, and also expected a rapid
drop in ceilings to around 2kft with the arrival of the colder air.
These MVFR ceilings should persist throughout the evening hours,
then clear out shortly after 06z as much drier air advects into
the area from the north.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 151104
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
604 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Today/Tonight: As of early this morning, scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms were developing over northwest Missouri into
portions of Iowa and Nebraska. This was in response to increasing
large scale ascent ahead of a shortwave trough located over the
eastern Dakotas and weak warm air advection. Thus far, convective
coverage has been rather underwhelming compared to solutions from
earlier model runs. The latest guidance depicts a drier tropospheric
profile and likewise much less QPF generation. Based on the current
trends, hard to disagree with trending a little lower on
precipitation chances for today. However, still expect some increase
in convective activity over the forecast area, potentially
before/around sunrise, as continued moistening and warm air
advection upon a 35kt veered low level jet yield a somewhat
conducive environment. Otherwise, a shallow convective band of
showers and isolated thunderstorms should evolve along the surface
cold front as it pushes southward, although the highest probabilities
for precipitation may reside just south of the CWA by late
afternoon. Temperatures today will be coolest north of Interstate 70
where cloud cover and cooler air advecting into the area upon the
frontal passage will keep highs in the mainly in the 60s, with
middle 70s expected over the southern half of the area. Cloud cover
will clear from north to south during the afternoon/evening hours as
drier air move into the region, eventually becoming clear overnight.
Surface high pressure will settle into the region tonight, and with
a good radiational cooling environment, expect to see low
temperatures fall into the 40s in many locations.

Tuesday/Wednesday: High pressure slowly moves off to the east of the
area on Tuesday, providing a cool post-frontal day with mostly sunny
skies and high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The
frontal boundary will begin to retreat northward Tuesday night over
Kansas, and with isentropic ascent, scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible across the western half of the CWA.
Moisture will continue to move back into the area on Wednesday, with
continued chances for convection during the day. Maximum readings
will be warmer, with highs in the 70s area wide.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Northwest cyclonic flow at the start of the period will quickly be
replaced by building heights as mid-level high pressure takes form
across the southern Plains. Closer to the surface...a stalled
north-south oriented frontal boundary will serve as a focus for
early morning showers and thunderstorms as strengthening warm air
advection interacts with said front. Based on good agreement between
the operational long range models...have maintained slgt chc-chc
mention across the western and southern third of the fcst area early
Thursday morning. Lingering shwrs/storms will quickly be replaced by
warming temps Thursday afternoon as 850 temps range anywhere from
15-18C across the lwr Missouri Vly. This should support middle to
upper 70s across much of the region...with even warmer temps
expected on Friday /upper 70s to lower 80s/ as warm air advection
continues. Fairly big pattern change anticipated by the weekend as
upper ridging breaks down and CONUS flow becomes increasingly split
as large upper low takes shape over California. As this
occurs...increasing southwest flow across the eastern Pacific will
allow the remnants of Hurricane Odile to translate northeast with
time over the Desert Southwest...central Rockies...and eventually
into the central Plains. Meanwhile...a frontal boundary associated
with a northern stream disturbance will begin approaching from the
northwest which should eventually allow deep tropical moisture
associated with the remnant tropical system into our area.
Surprisingly...fcst models are very much in agreement on this
scenario and thus have maintained high chc pops Saturday into
Saturday night across much of the region. Beyond this...strong high
pressure to build in from the northern Plains which will provide dry
and cool conditions through the conclusion of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Current VFR conditions should be replaced by MVFR ceilings in the
next couple hours at TAF sites as stratus expands southward.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the vicinity of
TAF sites through late morning into the early afternoon. Thereafter,
drier air will allow for a gradual improvement in ceilings, with a
return to VFR by late afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...Blair






000
FXUS63 KEAX 151104
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
604 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Today/Tonight: As of early this morning, scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms were developing over northwest Missouri into
portions of Iowa and Nebraska. This was in response to increasing
large scale ascent ahead of a shortwave trough located over the
eastern Dakotas and weak warm air advection. Thus far, convective
coverage has been rather underwhelming compared to solutions from
earlier model runs. The latest guidance depicts a drier tropospheric
profile and likewise much less QPF generation. Based on the current
trends, hard to disagree with trending a little lower on
precipitation chances for today. However, still expect some increase
in convective activity over the forecast area, potentially
before/around sunrise, as continued moistening and warm air
advection upon a 35kt veered low level jet yield a somewhat
conducive environment. Otherwise, a shallow convective band of
showers and isolated thunderstorms should evolve along the surface
cold front as it pushes southward, although the highest probabilities
for precipitation may reside just south of the CWA by late
afternoon. Temperatures today will be coolest north of Interstate 70
where cloud cover and cooler air advecting into the area upon the
frontal passage will keep highs in the mainly in the 60s, with
middle 70s expected over the southern half of the area. Cloud cover
will clear from north to south during the afternoon/evening hours as
drier air move into the region, eventually becoming clear overnight.
Surface high pressure will settle into the region tonight, and with
a good radiational cooling environment, expect to see low
temperatures fall into the 40s in many locations.

Tuesday/Wednesday: High pressure slowly moves off to the east of the
area on Tuesday, providing a cool post-frontal day with mostly sunny
skies and high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The
frontal boundary will begin to retreat northward Tuesday night over
Kansas, and with isentropic ascent, scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible across the western half of the CWA.
Moisture will continue to move back into the area on Wednesday, with
continued chances for convection during the day. Maximum readings
will be warmer, with highs in the 70s area wide.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Northwest cyclonic flow at the start of the period will quickly be
replaced by building heights as mid-level high pressure takes form
across the southern Plains. Closer to the surface...a stalled
north-south oriented frontal boundary will serve as a focus for
early morning showers and thunderstorms as strengthening warm air
advection interacts with said front. Based on good agreement between
the operational long range models...have maintained slgt chc-chc
mention across the western and southern third of the fcst area early
Thursday morning. Lingering shwrs/storms will quickly be replaced by
warming temps Thursday afternoon as 850 temps range anywhere from
15-18C across the lwr Missouri Vly. This should support middle to
upper 70s across much of the region...with even warmer temps
expected on Friday /upper 70s to lower 80s/ as warm air advection
continues. Fairly big pattern change anticipated by the weekend as
upper ridging breaks down and CONUS flow becomes increasingly split
as large upper low takes shape over California. As this
occurs...increasing southwest flow across the eastern Pacific will
allow the remnants of Hurricane Odile to translate northeast with
time over the Desert Southwest...central Rockies...and eventually
into the central Plains. Meanwhile...a frontal boundary associated
with a northern stream disturbance will begin approaching from the
northwest which should eventually allow deep tropical moisture
associated with the remnant tropical system into our area.
Surprisingly...fcst models are very much in agreement on this
scenario and thus have maintained high chc pops Saturday into
Saturday night across much of the region. Beyond this...strong high
pressure to build in from the northern Plains which will provide dry
and cool conditions through the conclusion of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Current VFR conditions should be replaced by MVFR ceilings in the
next couple hours at TAF sites as stratus expands southward.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the vicinity of
TAF sites through late morning into the early afternoon. Thereafter,
drier air will allow for a gradual improvement in ceilings, with a
return to VFR by late afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 150909
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
409 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Today/Tonight: As of early this morning, scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms were developing over northwest Missouri into
portions of Iowa and Nebraska. This was in response to increasing
large scale ascent ahead of a shortwave trough located over the
eastern Dakotas and weak warm air advection. Thus far, convective
coverage has been rather underwhelming compared to solutions from
earlier model runs. The latest guidance depicts a drier tropospheric
profile and likewise much less QPF generation. Based on the current
trends, hard to disagree with trending a little lower on
precipitation chances for today. However, still expect some increase
in convective activity over the forecast area, potentially
before/around sunrise, as continued moistening and warm air
advection upon a 35kt veered low level jet yield a somewhat
conducive environment. Otherwise, a shallow convective band of
showers and isolated thunderstorms should evolve along the surface
cold front as it pushes southward, although the highest probabilities
for precipitation may reside just south of the CWA by late
afternoon. Temperatures today will be coolest north of Interstate 70
where cloud cover and cooler air advecting into the area upon the
frontal passage will keep highs in the mainly in the 60s, with
middle 70s expected over the southern half of the area. Cloud cover
will clear from north to south during the afternoon/evening hours as
drier air move into the region, eventually becoming clear overnight.
Surface high pressure will settle into the region tonight, and with
a good radiational cooling environment, expect to see low
temperatures fall into the 40s in many locations.

Tuesday/Wednesday: High pressure slowly moves off to the east of the
area on Tuesday, providing a cool post-frontal day with mostly sunny
skies and high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The
frontal boundary will begin to retreat northward Tuesday night over
Kansas, and with isentropic ascent, scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible across the western half of the CWA.
Moisture will continue to move back into the area on Wednesday, with
continued chances for convection during the day. Maximum readings
will be warmer, with highs in the 70s area wide.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

Northwest cyclonic flow at the start of the period will quickly be
replaced by building heights as mid-level high pressure takes form
across the southern Plains. Closer to the surface...a stalled
north-south oriented frontal boundary will serve as a focus for
early morning showers and thunderstorms as strengthening warm air
advection interacts with said front. Based on good agreement between
the operational long range models...have maintained slgt chc-chc
mention across the western and southern third of the fcst area early
Thursday morning. Lingering shwrs/storms will quickly be replaced by
warming temps Thursday afternoon as 850 temps range anywhere from
15-18C across the lwr Missouri Vly. This should support middle to
upper 70s across much of the region...with even warmer temps
expected on Friday /upper 70s to lower 80s/ as warm air advection
continues. Fairly big pattern change anticipated by the weekend as
upper ridging breaks down and CONUS flow becomes increasingly split
as large upper low takes shape over California. As this
occurs...increasing southwest flow across the eastern Pacific will
allow the remnants of Hurricane Odile to translate northeast with
time over the Desert Southwest...central Rockies...and eventually
into the central Plains. Meanwhile...a frontal boundary associated
with a northern stream disturbance will begin approaching from the
northwest which should eventually allow deep tropical moisture
associated with the remnant tropical system into our area.
Surprisingly...fcst models are very much in agreement on this
scenario and thus have maintained high chc pops Saturday into
Saturday night across much of the region. Beyond this...strong high
pressure to build in from the northern Plains which will provide dry
and cool conditions through the conclusion of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Sct thunderstorms are dvlpg acrs SE Nebraska...hi-res model now want
to keep this activity north of the terminals. However, the NAM and
GFS still cont to bring storms into the terminals overnight so have
kept VCTS mention in the TAF from 09Z-13Z. MVFR cigs are proggeed to
move into the terminals by 13Z. Some models even hint at possible IFR
cigs tomorrow morning however opted for low MVFR at this time. MVFR
cigs will cont into the afternoon although they should lift to 2-3kft
with some showers or drizzle possible at the terminals. Toomorrow
evenng as high pressure moves in cigs will sct out. Winds will be
out of the SE tonight btn 5-10kts however, a cold front will drop
thru the terminals btn 15Z-17Z veering winds to the north around
10kts. Winds will then further veer to the NE by late afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...73






000
FXUS63 KLSX 150832
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
332 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

Shower and thunderstorm trends are the primary forecast problem for
today.  Definite lack of activity so far in our CWA as of 08z,
however impact of the veering low level jet and moisture advection
is just now starting in earnest over our CWA, so still believe that
elevated storms that developed in sw IA around 06z will be trying to
build south with time with some of this precipitation area impacting
northern sections of our CWA.  The latest HRRR, local WRF, as well
as some of the 00z synoptic models are also suggesting lesser/much
spottier development is also possible further south along and south
of the I-70 corridor over the next few hours, and don`t think this
consensus can be totally discounted with some showers currently
south of SGF.

With the primary zone of warm advection/isentropic ascent shifting
to our east during the afternoon, southward pushing cold front
should be the primary trigger for additional showers and
thunderstorms.  I have held onto a zone of likely PoPs in the
vicinity of the front, but it may be these values will be a bit too
high, especially if the warm layer depicted by the GFS between
700-750mb comes to fruition.

Have used a variety of 3 hourly temperature guidance trying to
capture impacts of the aforementioned precip trends as well as that
of the cold front over northern sections of the CWA.  Highs are
expected to range from the middle 60s in our n counties to the 75-80
degree range south of the Missouri River.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

Cold front should make it southeastward to around STL by 00z
Tuesday. There will be scattered showers along and just behind
this front as it continues to move southeastward through southeast
MO and southwest IL this evening. It does not appear that there
will be much precipitation left by late tonight as a surface ridge
builds southeastward into our area behind the front with cooler
and drier air filtering into MO and IL. It should be dry for
Tuesday and Tuesday evening, then showers may return to at least
portions of central and southeast MO late Tuesday night and
Wednesday as weak low-mid level warm air advection ahead of a weak
northwest flow shortwave intercepts return low level moisture on
the backside of the surface ridge shifting east of our area. The
eastward extent of this precipitation is in question. The models
keep most of their qpf west of the Mississippi river. Warmer
temperatures are expected for Friday as as upper level ridge over
the southwestern US shifts eastward into our area along with
strengthening surface/low level southerly winds. Convection should
return to the region Saturday afternoon and night as a strong
shortwave breaks down the upper level ridge and sends a cold front
southeastward through our forecast area Saturday night and Sunday
morning. Prefer the ECMWF model during this time period as the GFS
has some feedback problems and generates a surface low along the
front that is likely too deep and has too much qpf.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014

Some isolated showers/thunderstorms have begun to develop over
northwest MO on nose of low level jet. Still expect activity to
slide east across northern MO, so have showers/isolated
thunderstorms moving into KUIN by 08z. Then as jet veers to the
east, activity to slide southeast and diminish a bit as it
approaches tafs along I-70. So kept vcnty shower mention for now.
In the meantime, cold front to make progress to the south across
forecast area moving thru KUIN by 18z, KCOU by 19z and metro area
between 20z-21z. As for winds, to persist from the south, before
veering to the west then north behind the boundary. Cigs to remain
vfr til frontal passage, then lower to mvfr behind the front.

Specifics for KSTL:
Some isolated showers/thunderstorms have begun to develop over
northwest MO on nose of low level jet. Still expect activity to
slide east across northern MO. Then as jet veers to the east,
activity to slide southeast and diminish a bit as it approaches
the metro area. So kept vcnty shower mention for now. In the meantime,
cold front to make progress to the south across forecast area
moving thru metro area between 20z- 21z. As for winds, to persist
from the south, before veering to the west then north behind the
boundary. Cigs to remain vfr til frontal passage, then lower to
mvfr behind the front.

Byrd

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 150832
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
332 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

Shower and thunderstorm trends are the primary forecast problem for
today.  Definite lack of activity so far in our CWA as of 08z,
however impact of the veering low level jet and moisture advection
is just now starting in earnest over our CWA, so still believe that
elevated storms that developed in sw IA around 06z will be trying to
build south with time with some of this precipitation area impacting
northern sections of our CWA.  The latest HRRR, local WRF, as well
as some of the 00z synoptic models are also suggesting lesser/much
spottier development is also possible further south along and south
of the I-70 corridor over the next few hours, and don`t think this
consensus can be totally discounted with some showers currently
south of SGF.

With the primary zone of warm advection/isentropic ascent shifting
to our east during the afternoon, southward pushing cold front
should be the primary trigger for additional showers and
thunderstorms.  I have held onto a zone of likely PoPs in the
vicinity of the front, but it may be these values will be a bit too
high, especially if the warm layer depicted by the GFS between
700-750mb comes to fruition.

Have used a variety of 3 hourly temperature guidance trying to
capture impacts of the aforementioned precip trends as well as that
of the cold front over northern sections of the CWA.  Highs are
expected to range from the middle 60s in our n counties to the 75-80
degree range south of the Missouri River.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

Cold front should make it southeastward to around STL by 00z
Tuesday. There will be scattered showers along and just behind
this front as it continues to move southeastward through southeast
MO and southwest IL this evening. It does not appear that there
will be much precipitation left by late tonight as a surface ridge
builds southeastward into our area behind the front with cooler
and drier air filtering into MO and IL. It should be dry for
Tuesday and Tuesday evening, then showers may return to at least
portions of central and southeast MO late Tuesday night and
Wednesday as weak low-mid level warm air advection ahead of a weak
northwest flow shortwave intercepts return low level moisture on
the backside of the surface ridge shifting east of our area. The
eastward extent of this precipitation is in question. The models
keep most of their qpf west of the Mississippi river. Warmer
temperatures are expected for Friday as as upper level ridge over
the southwestern US shifts eastward into our area along with
strengthening surface/low level southerly winds. Convection should
return to the region Saturday afternoon and night as a strong
shortwave breaks down the upper level ridge and sends a cold front
southeastward through our forecast area Saturday night and Sunday
morning. Prefer the ECMWF model during this time period as the GFS
has some feedback problems and generates a surface low along the
front that is likely too deep and has too much qpf.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014

Some isolated showers/thunderstorms have begun to develop over
northwest MO on nose of low level jet. Still expect activity to
slide east across northern MO, so have showers/isolated
thunderstorms moving into KUIN by 08z. Then as jet veers to the
east, activity to slide southeast and diminish a bit as it
approaches tafs along I-70. So kept vcnty shower mention for now.
In the meantime, cold front to make progress to the south across
forecast area moving thru KUIN by 18z, KCOU by 19z and metro area
between 20z-21z. As for winds, to persist from the south, before
veering to the west then north behind the boundary. Cigs to remain
vfr til frontal passage, then lower to mvfr behind the front.

Specifics for KSTL:
Some isolated showers/thunderstorms have begun to develop over
northwest MO on nose of low level jet. Still expect activity to
slide east across northern MO. Then as jet veers to the east,
activity to slide southeast and diminish a bit as it approaches
the metro area. So kept vcnty shower mention for now. In the meantime,
cold front to make progress to the south across forecast area
moving thru metro area between 20z- 21z. As for winds, to persist
from the south, before veering to the west then north behind the
boundary. Cigs to remain vfr til frontal passage, then lower to
mvfr behind the front.

Byrd

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 150735
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
235 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tuesday night)

A few sprinkles were moving into southern Missouri this morning in
response to weak isentropic ascent over Oklahoma. It`s unlikely
that measurable rainfall will occur with this activity, and we
think the radar echoes will decline through the morning hours.

This will give way to a mostly dry morning across the Ozarks,
under cloudy skies and southerly breezes.

Rain chances however, will increase this afternoon and evening, as
an upper level disturbance forces a cold front into southern
Missouri.

We think sufficient instability will result in some thunderstorms,
particularly along the Interstate 44 corridor late this afternoon.

Eventually this area of rainfall will drift south near the
Arkansas border into the overnight hours. Some models suggest that
convection will persist overnight near the Arkansas border. So we
have left precipitation chances down there into Tuesday morning.

Eventually the stalled out front over Arkansas begins to wash out
and we lose our forcing mechanism for rainfall. This will lead to
dry conditions from Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)

Precipitation chances ramp up again on Wednesday as an upper speed
max passes over a mid level zone of baroclinicity. Additional
showers and thunderstorms will occur, and we think most locations
will receive some measurable rain. Specifically if this same
pattern continues into Thursday, which both the GFS and ECMWF suggests.

By Friday and the upcoming weekend, a ridge of high pressure will
build back into the nation`s mid section. This will result in
mostly dry weather along with a warming trend. As a matter of
fact, readings could trend back into the 80s this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...High and mid level clouds are
increasing across the area ahead of a weak disturbance pushing
east across Oklahoma. Some light showers or sprinkles are beginning
to develop across Oklahoma late this evening. Cloud bases are
high and there is also some dry air over the area that has to be
over come which will limit widespread showers overnight. Still
think some scattered showers or sprinkles will still occur across
the area overnight with the best potential farther south. Have
included a tempo group for showers overnight at the KBBG site and
have left out of the KJLN and KSGF TAFs as confidence is a little
lower that they will be affected.

Winds will be out of the south to southeast overnight and will
increase some and become southwesterly during the day on Monday.

A cold front will then drop south through the region Monday
evening. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
front as it drops through the area. Behind the front winds will
switch to the north to northeast and ceilings will drop into the
MVFR range.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 150735
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
235 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tuesday night)

A few sprinkles were moving into southern Missouri this morning in
response to weak isentropic ascent over Oklahoma. It`s unlikely
that measurable rainfall will occur with this activity, and we
think the radar echoes will decline through the morning hours.

This will give way to a mostly dry morning across the Ozarks,
under cloudy skies and southerly breezes.

Rain chances however, will increase this afternoon and evening, as
an upper level disturbance forces a cold front into southern
Missouri.

We think sufficient instability will result in some thunderstorms,
particularly along the Interstate 44 corridor late this afternoon.

Eventually this area of rainfall will drift south near the
Arkansas border into the overnight hours. Some models suggest that
convection will persist overnight near the Arkansas border. So we
have left precipitation chances down there into Tuesday morning.

Eventually the stalled out front over Arkansas begins to wash out
and we lose our forcing mechanism for rainfall. This will lead to
dry conditions from Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)

Precipitation chances ramp up again on Wednesday as an upper speed
max passes over a mid level zone of baroclinicity. Additional
showers and thunderstorms will occur, and we think most locations
will receive some measurable rain. Specifically if this same
pattern continues into Thursday, which both the GFS and ECMWF suggests.

By Friday and the upcoming weekend, a ridge of high pressure will
build back into the nation`s mid section. This will result in
mostly dry weather along with a warming trend. As a matter of
fact, readings could trend back into the 80s this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...High and mid level clouds are
increasing across the area ahead of a weak disturbance pushing
east across Oklahoma. Some light showers or sprinkles are beginning
to develop across Oklahoma late this evening. Cloud bases are
high and there is also some dry air over the area that has to be
over come which will limit widespread showers overnight. Still
think some scattered showers or sprinkles will still occur across
the area overnight with the best potential farther south. Have
included a tempo group for showers overnight at the KBBG site and
have left out of the KJLN and KSGF TAFs as confidence is a little
lower that they will be affected.

Winds will be out of the south to southeast overnight and will
increase some and become southwesterly during the day on Monday.

A cold front will then drop south through the region Monday
evening. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
front as it drops through the area. Behind the front winds will
switch to the north to northeast and ceilings will drop into the
MVFR range.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Wise






000
FXUS63 KLSX 150504
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1204 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014

Low level ridge extending from the Ohio Valley into the lower and
middle MS Valley will drift eastward tonight, but maintain an
influence on southeast MO and southern IL promoting overnight lows
in the upper 40s. Meanwhile the main concern will be the threat of
showers and thunderstorms tonight. Westerly flow aloft will advect a
region of relatively steep mid level lapse rates presently across
the Plains across Missouri and into IL tonight. Beneath this, a
rather broad low level jet will ramp up this evening across the
central Plains and veer to more westerly overnight.  The
differential advections will result in elevated instability with the
LLJ providing good moisture transport/warm advection and lift.
Current thoughts are elevated showers and thunderstorms will develop
near the terminus of LLJ with showers and thunderstorms spreading
across northern MO and into west central IL during the late night
hours. Given the progressive nature of the flow aloft, I have
favored the more agressive eastward and southern extent of the NAM
and local WRF.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014

(Monday through Wednesday)

Main concern deals with precipitation chances through Monday night.

The GFS and NAM are in decent agreement with the speed and depth of
the shortwave trough currently that is dropping south into Montana
that is expected to deepen and move southeast across Missouri and
Illinois late on Monday.   Expect the greatest concentration of
showers and thunderstorms to be across central and northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois on Monday morning where the GFS
and NAM is showing the strongest low level moisture convergence
ahead of the approaching trough.  This morning`s 12Z NSSL WRF
depicts this idea, showing showers and thunderstorms over northern
Missouri on Monday morning.  Will keep categorical PoPs going during
morning, and then keep likely PoPs going into the afternoon over
central parts of the CWA as the cold pushes south through the CWA.
There will be some lingering showers over southeast Missouri into
southern Illinois into Monday night as the cold front exits the area.

Tuesday and Tuesday night then will be dry as heights rise behind
the trough.  I did add some slight chances of thunderstorms across
central Missouri on Wednesday and Wednesday night as the GFS has
been consistent in showing some light QPF with a weak shortwave
moving southeast across the area in northwesterly flow aloft.

For temperatures, I used a blend of MOS guidance tomorrow, favoring
the cooler NAM values where I expect there to be precipitation and
earlier frontal passage in the north earlier in the day.   Used a
blend of MOS guidance for highs on Tuesday which works well in
mixing down 900mb temperatures.  Lows are the the agreeable MOS
guidance.

(Thursday through next Sunday)

Still looks like the end of the work week should stay dry as surface
high moves across the area.  The chance of rain will increase next
weekend as both the ECMWF and GFS show a trough approaching from the
west on Saturday with the attendant cold front crossing the area
Saturday night and Sunday.  Temperatures will climb back to near
normal by late in the week as 850mb temperature climbs into the mid
teens Celsius.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014

Some isolated showers/thunderstorms have begun to develop over
northwest MO on nose of low level jet. Still expect activity to
slide east across northern MO, so have showers/isolated
thunderstorms moving into KUIN by 08z. Then as jet veers to the
east, activity to slide southeast and diminish a bit as it
approaches tafs along I-70. So kept vcnty shower mention for now.
In the meantime, cold front to make progress to the south across
forecast area moving thru KUIN by 18z, KCOU by 19z and metro area
between 20z-21z. As for winds, to persist from the south, before
veering to the west then north behind the boundary. Cigs to remain
vfr til frontal passage, then lower to mvfr behind the front.

Specifics for KSTL:
Some isolated showers/thunderstorms have begun to develop over
northwest MO on nose of low level jet. Still expect activity to
slide east across northern MO. Then as jet veers to the east,
activity to slide southeast and diminish a bit as it approaches
the metro area. So kept vcnty shower mention for now. In the meantime,
cold front to make progress to the south across forecast area
moving thru metro area between 20z- 21z. As for winds, to persist
from the south, before veering to the west then north behind the
boundary. Cigs to remain vfr til frontal passage, then lower to
mvfr behind the front.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 150504
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1204 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014

Low level ridge extending from the Ohio Valley into the lower and
middle MS Valley will drift eastward tonight, but maintain an
influence on southeast MO and southern IL promoting overnight lows
in the upper 40s. Meanwhile the main concern will be the threat of
showers and thunderstorms tonight. Westerly flow aloft will advect a
region of relatively steep mid level lapse rates presently across
the Plains across Missouri and into IL tonight. Beneath this, a
rather broad low level jet will ramp up this evening across the
central Plains and veer to more westerly overnight.  The
differential advections will result in elevated instability with the
LLJ providing good moisture transport/warm advection and lift.
Current thoughts are elevated showers and thunderstorms will develop
near the terminus of LLJ with showers and thunderstorms spreading
across northern MO and into west central IL during the late night
hours. Given the progressive nature of the flow aloft, I have
favored the more agressive eastward and southern extent of the NAM
and local WRF.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014

(Monday through Wednesday)

Main concern deals with precipitation chances through Monday night.

The GFS and NAM are in decent agreement with the speed and depth of
the shortwave trough currently that is dropping south into Montana
that is expected to deepen and move southeast across Missouri and
Illinois late on Monday.   Expect the greatest concentration of
showers and thunderstorms to be across central and northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois on Monday morning where the GFS
and NAM is showing the strongest low level moisture convergence
ahead of the approaching trough.  This morning`s 12Z NSSL WRF
depicts this idea, showing showers and thunderstorms over northern
Missouri on Monday morning.  Will keep categorical PoPs going during
morning, and then keep likely PoPs going into the afternoon over
central parts of the CWA as the cold pushes south through the CWA.
There will be some lingering showers over southeast Missouri into
southern Illinois into Monday night as the cold front exits the area.

Tuesday and Tuesday night then will be dry as heights rise behind
the trough.  I did add some slight chances of thunderstorms across
central Missouri on Wednesday and Wednesday night as the GFS has
been consistent in showing some light QPF with a weak shortwave
moving southeast across the area in northwesterly flow aloft.

For temperatures, I used a blend of MOS guidance tomorrow, favoring
the cooler NAM values where I expect there to be precipitation and
earlier frontal passage in the north earlier in the day.   Used a
blend of MOS guidance for highs on Tuesday which works well in
mixing down 900mb temperatures.  Lows are the the agreeable MOS
guidance.

(Thursday through next Sunday)

Still looks like the end of the work week should stay dry as surface
high moves across the area.  The chance of rain will increase next
weekend as both the ECMWF and GFS show a trough approaching from the
west on Saturday with the attendant cold front crossing the area
Saturday night and Sunday.  Temperatures will climb back to near
normal by late in the week as 850mb temperature climbs into the mid
teens Celsius.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014

Some isolated showers/thunderstorms have begun to develop over
northwest MO on nose of low level jet. Still expect activity to
slide east across northern MO, so have showers/isolated
thunderstorms moving into KUIN by 08z. Then as jet veers to the
east, activity to slide southeast and diminish a bit as it
approaches tafs along I-70. So kept vcnty shower mention for now.
In the meantime, cold front to make progress to the south across
forecast area moving thru KUIN by 18z, KCOU by 19z and metro area
between 20z-21z. As for winds, to persist from the south, before
veering to the west then north behind the boundary. Cigs to remain
vfr til frontal passage, then lower to mvfr behind the front.

Specifics for KSTL:
Some isolated showers/thunderstorms have begun to develop over
northwest MO on nose of low level jet. Still expect activity to
slide east across northern MO. Then as jet veers to the east,
activity to slide southeast and diminish a bit as it approaches
the metro area. So kept vcnty shower mention for now. In the meantime,
cold front to make progress to the south across forecast area
moving thru metro area between 20z- 21z. As for winds, to persist
from the south, before veering to the west then north behind the
boundary. Cigs to remain vfr til frontal passage, then lower to
mvfr behind the front.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 150503
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1203 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Already seeing an expanding area of clouds and a few showers across
parts of NE and northern KS this afternoon where warm air advection
is increasing. While these showers may weaken later this evening, a
more solid area of rain and a few thunderstorms should expand and
push into northern parts of KS and MO late tonight into Monday
morning as WAA becomes enhanced by a developing low-level jet. Feed
of higher theta-e air within the jet will also bring some elevated
instability to the area late tonight and Monday morning, with some
models now showing MUCAPE values as high as 1000 to 2000 J/kg. Shear
and low-level forcing do not appear particularly favorable for strong
or organized storms, but could still see a few storms capable of
producing brief heavy rain through late Monday morning.

A cold front will slide in from the northwest through the day Monday
and bring a gradual drying trend through late afternoon. Airmass
behind the front won`t be quite as cold as the one that gave record
lows Saturday morning, but will still bring temperatures 10 to 15
degrees below normal with lows in the middle and upper 40s Monday
night. This could also yield to areas of fog toward sunrise Tuesday
similar to what happened Saturday morning.

Tuesday will be the coolest day of the week with post-frontal
temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70. A steady warming trend will
then set in after this point with highs reaching the upper 70s and
lower 80s by Friday. Could see a few showers or thunderstorms during
this warm air advection pattern, particularly Wednesday afternoon and
evening. With dry high pressure dominating the Great Lakes and Mid
Mississippi Valley through this time, the better chances for any rain
will be across far western Missouri and westward into Kansas. Better
chances for more widespread rain will arrive next weekend with the
arrival of another cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Sct thunderstorms are dvlpg acrs SE Nebraska...hi-res model now want
to keep this activity north of the terminals. However, the NAM and
GFS still cont to bring storms into the terminals overnight so have
kept VCTS mention in the TAF from 09Z-13Z. MVFR cigs are proggeed to
move into the terminals by 13Z. Some models even hint at possible IFR
cigs tomorrow morning however opted for low MVFR at this time. MVFR
cigs will cont into the afternoon although they should lift to 2-3kft
with some showers or drizzle possible at the terminals. Toomorrow
evenng as high pressure moves in cigs will sct out. Winds will be
out of the SE tonight btn 5-10kts however, a cold front will drop
thru the terminals btn 15Z-17Z veering winds to the north around
10kts. Winds will then further veer to the NE by late afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KSGF 150503
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1203 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 249  PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Another pleasant fall-like day underway across the area. Patch of
mid level cloud cover continues to dissipate/shift northeast into
central Missouri. This has held back temperatures a bit across
central Missouri (upper 60s), with the rest of the area in the
70s.

Quiet weather will continue tonight with mid/high level clouds on
the increase. Will be watching two systems moving into the central
portion of the CONUS. One is a weak wave moving east/northeast out
of Texas into Oklahoma, the other much stronger moving across the
Upper Midwest. The stronger wave to our north will produce an area
of showers and storms that will approach northern portions of our
area toward daybreak Monday. In addition, the weaker wave to our
southwest will induce weak isentropic upglide which may produce a
few showers across far western/southwestern portions of the area
toward daybreak.

Each of the aforementioned waves will continue to move east on
Monday. 12z suite of model output indicates the majority of the
lift associated with this system will be in the lower levels of
the atmosphere. As the brunt of the upper wave shifts into the
Great Lakes region, mid and upper level support will weaken
considerably. A cold front associated with the northern wave will
move into the area. Modest heating will produce modest instability
across the area, and scattered showers and storms should develop
along the boundary as it moves slowly to the south with this. As a
result, it`s possible not everyone will see rain with this system.

The front will slowly sag south Monday night and clear the area by
Tuesday morning. Scattered showers will remain possible across
southern Missouri into Tuesday morning, with clearing expected
Tuesday afternoon. This front will stall just to our south and
west, transitioning into a warm front and become a focus for
additional showers and a few storms heading into Wednesday,
especially across the western half of the area.

Temperatures Monday will be seasonably mild, but return back to
well below average levels Tuesday and Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A stalled front will linger Wednesday night and possibly early
Thursday with a few scattered showers and thunderstorms. This
front will wash out Thursday and upper level ridging will build
across the central portions of the country. Southerly winds will
return for the end of the week along with warmer weather.
Temperatures will be about seasonable if not slightly above
average. The weather will be dry for the end of the week with the
upper level ridge of high pressure.

The ridge will break down next weekend and allow another front to
move into the area. The models suggest this front will slow down
or even stall out near the around by Sunday with chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Will mention a chance for rain late
Saturday through Sunday but not confident yet on timing or
coverage 7 days out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...High and mid level clouds are
increasing across the area ahead of a weak disturbance pushing
east across Oklahoma. Some light showers or sprinkles are beginning
to develop across Oklahoma late this evening. Cloud bases are
high and there is also some dry air over the area that has to be
over come which will limit widespread showers overnight. Still
think some scattered showers or sprinkles will still occur across
the area overnight with the best potential farther south. Have
included a tempo group for showers overnight at the KBBG site and
have left out of the KJLN and KSGF TAFs as confidence is a little
lower that they will be affected.

Winds will be out of the south to southeast overnight and will
increase some and become southwesterly during the day on Monday.

A cold front will then drop south through the region Monday
evening. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
front as it drops through the area. Behind the front winds will
switch to the north to northeast and ceilings will drop into the
MVFR range.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 150503
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1203 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 249  PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Another pleasant fall-like day underway across the area. Patch of
mid level cloud cover continues to dissipate/shift northeast into
central Missouri. This has held back temperatures a bit across
central Missouri (upper 60s), with the rest of the area in the
70s.

Quiet weather will continue tonight with mid/high level clouds on
the increase. Will be watching two systems moving into the central
portion of the CONUS. One is a weak wave moving east/northeast out
of Texas into Oklahoma, the other much stronger moving across the
Upper Midwest. The stronger wave to our north will produce an area
of showers and storms that will approach northern portions of our
area toward daybreak Monday. In addition, the weaker wave to our
southwest will induce weak isentropic upglide which may produce a
few showers across far western/southwestern portions of the area
toward daybreak.

Each of the aforementioned waves will continue to move east on
Monday. 12z suite of model output indicates the majority of the
lift associated with this system will be in the lower levels of
the atmosphere. As the brunt of the upper wave shifts into the
Great Lakes region, mid and upper level support will weaken
considerably. A cold front associated with the northern wave will
move into the area. Modest heating will produce modest instability
across the area, and scattered showers and storms should develop
along the boundary as it moves slowly to the south with this. As a
result, it`s possible not everyone will see rain with this system.

The front will slowly sag south Monday night and clear the area by
Tuesday morning. Scattered showers will remain possible across
southern Missouri into Tuesday morning, with clearing expected
Tuesday afternoon. This front will stall just to our south and
west, transitioning into a warm front and become a focus for
additional showers and a few storms heading into Wednesday,
especially across the western half of the area.

Temperatures Monday will be seasonably mild, but return back to
well below average levels Tuesday and Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A stalled front will linger Wednesday night and possibly early
Thursday with a few scattered showers and thunderstorms. This
front will wash out Thursday and upper level ridging will build
across the central portions of the country. Southerly winds will
return for the end of the week along with warmer weather.
Temperatures will be about seasonable if not slightly above
average. The weather will be dry for the end of the week with the
upper level ridge of high pressure.

The ridge will break down next weekend and allow another front to
move into the area. The models suggest this front will slow down
or even stall out near the around by Sunday with chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Will mention a chance for rain late
Saturday through Sunday but not confident yet on timing or
coverage 7 days out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...High and mid level clouds are
increasing across the area ahead of a weak disturbance pushing
east across Oklahoma. Some light showers or sprinkles are beginning
to develop across Oklahoma late this evening. Cloud bases are
high and there is also some dry air over the area that has to be
over come which will limit widespread showers overnight. Still
think some scattered showers or sprinkles will still occur across
the area overnight with the best potential farther south. Have
included a tempo group for showers overnight at the KBBG site and
have left out of the KJLN and KSGF TAFs as confidence is a little
lower that they will be affected.

Winds will be out of the south to southeast overnight and will
increase some and become southwesterly during the day on Monday.

A cold front will then drop south through the region Monday
evening. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
front as it drops through the area. Behind the front winds will
switch to the north to northeast and ceilings will drop into the
MVFR range.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KEAX 150503
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1203 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Already seeing an expanding area of clouds and a few showers across
parts of NE and northern KS this afternoon where warm air advection
is increasing. While these showers may weaken later this evening, a
more solid area of rain and a few thunderstorms should expand and
push into northern parts of KS and MO late tonight into Monday
morning as WAA becomes enhanced by a developing low-level jet. Feed
of higher theta-e air within the jet will also bring some elevated
instability to the area late tonight and Monday morning, with some
models now showing MUCAPE values as high as 1000 to 2000 J/kg. Shear
and low-level forcing do not appear particularly favorable for strong
or organized storms, but could still see a few storms capable of
producing brief heavy rain through late Monday morning.

A cold front will slide in from the northwest through the day Monday
and bring a gradual drying trend through late afternoon. Airmass
behind the front won`t be quite as cold as the one that gave record
lows Saturday morning, but will still bring temperatures 10 to 15
degrees below normal with lows in the middle and upper 40s Monday
night. This could also yield to areas of fog toward sunrise Tuesday
similar to what happened Saturday morning.

Tuesday will be the coolest day of the week with post-frontal
temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70. A steady warming trend will
then set in after this point with highs reaching the upper 70s and
lower 80s by Friday. Could see a few showers or thunderstorms during
this warm air advection pattern, particularly Wednesday afternoon and
evening. With dry high pressure dominating the Great Lakes and Mid
Mississippi Valley through this time, the better chances for any rain
will be across far western Missouri and westward into Kansas. Better
chances for more widespread rain will arrive next weekend with the
arrival of another cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Sct thunderstorms are dvlpg acrs SE Nebraska...hi-res model now want
to keep this activity north of the terminals. However, the NAM and
GFS still cont to bring storms into the terminals overnight so have
kept VCTS mention in the TAF from 09Z-13Z. MVFR cigs are proggeed to
move into the terminals by 13Z. Some models even hint at possible IFR
cigs tomorrow morning however opted for low MVFR at this time. MVFR
cigs will cont into the afternoon although they should lift to 2-3kft
with some showers or drizzle possible at the terminals. Toomorrow
evenng as high pressure moves in cigs will sct out. Winds will be
out of the SE tonight btn 5-10kts however, a cold front will drop
thru the terminals btn 15Z-17Z veering winds to the north around
10kts. Winds will then further veer to the NE by late afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...73






000
FXUS63 KSGF 150503
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1203 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 249  PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Another pleasant fall-like day underway across the area. Patch of
mid level cloud cover continues to dissipate/shift northeast into
central Missouri. This has held back temperatures a bit across
central Missouri (upper 60s), with the rest of the area in the
70s.

Quiet weather will continue tonight with mid/high level clouds on
the increase. Will be watching two systems moving into the central
portion of the CONUS. One is a weak wave moving east/northeast out
of Texas into Oklahoma, the other much stronger moving across the
Upper Midwest. The stronger wave to our north will produce an area
of showers and storms that will approach northern portions of our
area toward daybreak Monday. In addition, the weaker wave to our
southwest will induce weak isentropic upglide which may produce a
few showers across far western/southwestern portions of the area
toward daybreak.

Each of the aforementioned waves will continue to move east on
Monday. 12z suite of model output indicates the majority of the
lift associated with this system will be in the lower levels of
the atmosphere. As the brunt of the upper wave shifts into the
Great Lakes region, mid and upper level support will weaken
considerably. A cold front associated with the northern wave will
move into the area. Modest heating will produce modest instability
across the area, and scattered showers and storms should develop
along the boundary as it moves slowly to the south with this. As a
result, it`s possible not everyone will see rain with this system.

The front will slowly sag south Monday night and clear the area by
Tuesday morning. Scattered showers will remain possible across
southern Missouri into Tuesday morning, with clearing expected
Tuesday afternoon. This front will stall just to our south and
west, transitioning into a warm front and become a focus for
additional showers and a few storms heading into Wednesday,
especially across the western half of the area.

Temperatures Monday will be seasonably mild, but return back to
well below average levels Tuesday and Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A stalled front will linger Wednesday night and possibly early
Thursday with a few scattered showers and thunderstorms. This
front will wash out Thursday and upper level ridging will build
across the central portions of the country. Southerly winds will
return for the end of the week along with warmer weather.
Temperatures will be about seasonable if not slightly above
average. The weather will be dry for the end of the week with the
upper level ridge of high pressure.

The ridge will break down next weekend and allow another front to
move into the area. The models suggest this front will slow down
or even stall out near the around by Sunday with chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Will mention a chance for rain late
Saturday through Sunday but not confident yet on timing or
coverage 7 days out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...High and mid level clouds are
increasing across the area ahead of a weak disturbance pushing
east across Oklahoma. Some light showers or sprinkles are beginning
to develop across Oklahoma late this evening. Cloud bases are
high and there is also some dry air over the area that has to be
over come which will limit widespread showers overnight. Still
think some scattered showers or sprinkles will still occur across
the area overnight with the best potential farther south. Have
included a tempo group for showers overnight at the KBBG site and
have left out of the KJLN and KSGF TAFs as confidence is a little
lower that they will be affected.

Winds will be out of the south to southeast overnight and will
increase some and become southwesterly during the day on Monday.

A cold front will then drop south through the region Monday
evening. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
front as it drops through the area. Behind the front winds will
switch to the north to northeast and ceilings will drop into the
MVFR range.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 150503
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1203 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 249  PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Another pleasant fall-like day underway across the area. Patch of
mid level cloud cover continues to dissipate/shift northeast into
central Missouri. This has held back temperatures a bit across
central Missouri (upper 60s), with the rest of the area in the
70s.

Quiet weather will continue tonight with mid/high level clouds on
the increase. Will be watching two systems moving into the central
portion of the CONUS. One is a weak wave moving east/northeast out
of Texas into Oklahoma, the other much stronger moving across the
Upper Midwest. The stronger wave to our north will produce an area
of showers and storms that will approach northern portions of our
area toward daybreak Monday. In addition, the weaker wave to our
southwest will induce weak isentropic upglide which may produce a
few showers across far western/southwestern portions of the area
toward daybreak.

Each of the aforementioned waves will continue to move east on
Monday. 12z suite of model output indicates the majority of the
lift associated with this system will be in the lower levels of
the atmosphere. As the brunt of the upper wave shifts into the
Great Lakes region, mid and upper level support will weaken
considerably. A cold front associated with the northern wave will
move into the area. Modest heating will produce modest instability
across the area, and scattered showers and storms should develop
along the boundary as it moves slowly to the south with this. As a
result, it`s possible not everyone will see rain with this system.

The front will slowly sag south Monday night and clear the area by
Tuesday morning. Scattered showers will remain possible across
southern Missouri into Tuesday morning, with clearing expected
Tuesday afternoon. This front will stall just to our south and
west, transitioning into a warm front and become a focus for
additional showers and a few storms heading into Wednesday,
especially across the western half of the area.

Temperatures Monday will be seasonably mild, but return back to
well below average levels Tuesday and Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A stalled front will linger Wednesday night and possibly early
Thursday with a few scattered showers and thunderstorms. This
front will wash out Thursday and upper level ridging will build
across the central portions of the country. Southerly winds will
return for the end of the week along with warmer weather.
Temperatures will be about seasonable if not slightly above
average. The weather will be dry for the end of the week with the
upper level ridge of high pressure.

The ridge will break down next weekend and allow another front to
move into the area. The models suggest this front will slow down
or even stall out near the around by Sunday with chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Will mention a chance for rain late
Saturday through Sunday but not confident yet on timing or
coverage 7 days out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...High and mid level clouds are
increasing across the area ahead of a weak disturbance pushing
east across Oklahoma. Some light showers or sprinkles are beginning
to develop across Oklahoma late this evening. Cloud bases are
high and there is also some dry air over the area that has to be
over come which will limit widespread showers overnight. Still
think some scattered showers or sprinkles will still occur across
the area overnight with the best potential farther south. Have
included a tempo group for showers overnight at the KBBG site and
have left out of the KJLN and KSGF TAFs as confidence is a little
lower that they will be affected.

Winds will be out of the south to southeast overnight and will
increase some and become southwesterly during the day on Monday.

A cold front will then drop south through the region Monday
evening. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
front as it drops through the area. Behind the front winds will
switch to the north to northeast and ceilings will drop into the
MVFR range.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KEAX 150503
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1203 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Already seeing an expanding area of clouds and a few showers across
parts of NE and northern KS this afternoon where warm air advection
is increasing. While these showers may weaken later this evening, a
more solid area of rain and a few thunderstorms should expand and
push into northern parts of KS and MO late tonight into Monday
morning as WAA becomes enhanced by a developing low-level jet. Feed
of higher theta-e air within the jet will also bring some elevated
instability to the area late tonight and Monday morning, with some
models now showing MUCAPE values as high as 1000 to 2000 J/kg. Shear
and low-level forcing do not appear particularly favorable for strong
or organized storms, but could still see a few storms capable of
producing brief heavy rain through late Monday morning.

A cold front will slide in from the northwest through the day Monday
and bring a gradual drying trend through late afternoon. Airmass
behind the front won`t be quite as cold as the one that gave record
lows Saturday morning, but will still bring temperatures 10 to 15
degrees below normal with lows in the middle and upper 40s Monday
night. This could also yield to areas of fog toward sunrise Tuesday
similar to what happened Saturday morning.

Tuesday will be the coolest day of the week with post-frontal
temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70. A steady warming trend will
then set in after this point with highs reaching the upper 70s and
lower 80s by Friday. Could see a few showers or thunderstorms during
this warm air advection pattern, particularly Wednesday afternoon and
evening. With dry high pressure dominating the Great Lakes and Mid
Mississippi Valley through this time, the better chances for any rain
will be across far western Missouri and westward into Kansas. Better
chances for more widespread rain will arrive next weekend with the
arrival of another cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Sct thunderstorms are dvlpg acrs SE Nebraska...hi-res model now want
to keep this activity north of the terminals. However, the NAM and
GFS still cont to bring storms into the terminals overnight so have
kept VCTS mention in the TAF from 09Z-13Z. MVFR cigs are proggeed to
move into the terminals by 13Z. Some models even hint at possible IFR
cigs tomorrow morning however opted for low MVFR at this time. MVFR
cigs will cont into the afternoon although they should lift to 2-3kft
with some showers or drizzle possible at the terminals. Toomorrow
evenng as high pressure moves in cigs will sct out. Winds will be
out of the SE tonight btn 5-10kts however, a cold front will drop
thru the terminals btn 15Z-17Z veering winds to the north around
10kts. Winds will then further veer to the NE by late afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...73






000
FXUS63 KSGF 150503
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1203 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 249  PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Another pleasant fall-like day underway across the area. Patch of
mid level cloud cover continues to dissipate/shift northeast into
central Missouri. This has held back temperatures a bit across
central Missouri (upper 60s), with the rest of the area in the
70s.

Quiet weather will continue tonight with mid/high level clouds on
the increase. Will be watching two systems moving into the central
portion of the CONUS. One is a weak wave moving east/northeast out
of Texas into Oklahoma, the other much stronger moving across the
Upper Midwest. The stronger wave to our north will produce an area
of showers and storms that will approach northern portions of our
area toward daybreak Monday. In addition, the weaker wave to our
southwest will induce weak isentropic upglide which may produce a
few showers across far western/southwestern portions of the area
toward daybreak.

Each of the aforementioned waves will continue to move east on
Monday. 12z suite of model output indicates the majority of the
lift associated with this system will be in the lower levels of
the atmosphere. As the brunt of the upper wave shifts into the
Great Lakes region, mid and upper level support will weaken
considerably. A cold front associated with the northern wave will
move into the area. Modest heating will produce modest instability
across the area, and scattered showers and storms should develop
along the boundary as it moves slowly to the south with this. As a
result, it`s possible not everyone will see rain with this system.

The front will slowly sag south Monday night and clear the area by
Tuesday morning. Scattered showers will remain possible across
southern Missouri into Tuesday morning, with clearing expected
Tuesday afternoon. This front will stall just to our south and
west, transitioning into a warm front and become a focus for
additional showers and a few storms heading into Wednesday,
especially across the western half of the area.

Temperatures Monday will be seasonably mild, but return back to
well below average levels Tuesday and Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A stalled front will linger Wednesday night and possibly early
Thursday with a few scattered showers and thunderstorms. This
front will wash out Thursday and upper level ridging will build
across the central portions of the country. Southerly winds will
return for the end of the week along with warmer weather.
Temperatures will be about seasonable if not slightly above
average. The weather will be dry for the end of the week with the
upper level ridge of high pressure.

The ridge will break down next weekend and allow another front to
move into the area. The models suggest this front will slow down
or even stall out near the around by Sunday with chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Will mention a chance for rain late
Saturday through Sunday but not confident yet on timing or
coverage 7 days out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...High and mid level clouds are
increasing across the area ahead of a weak disturbance pushing
east across Oklahoma. Some light showers or sprinkles are beginning
to develop across Oklahoma late this evening. Cloud bases are
high and there is also some dry air over the area that has to be
over come which will limit widespread showers overnight. Still
think some scattered showers or sprinkles will still occur across
the area overnight with the best potential farther south. Have
included a tempo group for showers overnight at the KBBG site and
have left out of the KJLN and KSGF TAFs as confidence is a little
lower that they will be affected.

Winds will be out of the south to southeast overnight and will
increase some and become southwesterly during the day on Monday.

A cold front will then drop south through the region Monday
evening. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
front as it drops through the area. Behind the front winds will
switch to the north to northeast and ceilings will drop into the
MVFR range.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 150503
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1203 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 249  PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Another pleasant fall-like day underway across the area. Patch of
mid level cloud cover continues to dissipate/shift northeast into
central Missouri. This has held back temperatures a bit across
central Missouri (upper 60s), with the rest of the area in the
70s.

Quiet weather will continue tonight with mid/high level clouds on
the increase. Will be watching two systems moving into the central
portion of the CONUS. One is a weak wave moving east/northeast out
of Texas into Oklahoma, the other much stronger moving across the
Upper Midwest. The stronger wave to our north will produce an area
of showers and storms that will approach northern portions of our
area toward daybreak Monday. In addition, the weaker wave to our
southwest will induce weak isentropic upglide which may produce a
few showers across far western/southwestern portions of the area
toward daybreak.

Each of the aforementioned waves will continue to move east on
Monday. 12z suite of model output indicates the majority of the
lift associated with this system will be in the lower levels of
the atmosphere. As the brunt of the upper wave shifts into the
Great Lakes region, mid and upper level support will weaken
considerably. A cold front associated with the northern wave will
move into the area. Modest heating will produce modest instability
across the area, and scattered showers and storms should develop
along the boundary as it moves slowly to the south with this. As a
result, it`s possible not everyone will see rain with this system.

The front will slowly sag south Monday night and clear the area by
Tuesday morning. Scattered showers will remain possible across
southern Missouri into Tuesday morning, with clearing expected
Tuesday afternoon. This front will stall just to our south and
west, transitioning into a warm front and become a focus for
additional showers and a few storms heading into Wednesday,
especially across the western half of the area.

Temperatures Monday will be seasonably mild, but return back to
well below average levels Tuesday and Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A stalled front will linger Wednesday night and possibly early
Thursday with a few scattered showers and thunderstorms. This
front will wash out Thursday and upper level ridging will build
across the central portions of the country. Southerly winds will
return for the end of the week along with warmer weather.
Temperatures will be about seasonable if not slightly above
average. The weather will be dry for the end of the week with the
upper level ridge of high pressure.

The ridge will break down next weekend and allow another front to
move into the area. The models suggest this front will slow down
or even stall out near the around by Sunday with chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Will mention a chance for rain late
Saturday through Sunday but not confident yet on timing or
coverage 7 days out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...High and mid level clouds are
increasing across the area ahead of a weak disturbance pushing
east across Oklahoma. Some light showers or sprinkles are beginning
to develop across Oklahoma late this evening. Cloud bases are
high and there is also some dry air over the area that has to be
over come which will limit widespread showers overnight. Still
think some scattered showers or sprinkles will still occur across
the area overnight with the best potential farther south. Have
included a tempo group for showers overnight at the KBBG site and
have left out of the KJLN and KSGF TAFs as confidence is a little
lower that they will be affected.

Winds will be out of the south to southeast overnight and will
increase some and become southwesterly during the day on Monday.

A cold front will then drop south through the region Monday
evening. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
front as it drops through the area. Behind the front winds will
switch to the north to northeast and ceilings will drop into the
MVFR range.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KEAX 150503
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1203 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Already seeing an expanding area of clouds and a few showers across
parts of NE and northern KS this afternoon where warm air advection
is increasing. While these showers may weaken later this evening, a
more solid area of rain and a few thunderstorms should expand and
push into northern parts of KS and MO late tonight into Monday
morning as WAA becomes enhanced by a developing low-level jet. Feed
of higher theta-e air within the jet will also bring some elevated
instability to the area late tonight and Monday morning, with some
models now showing MUCAPE values as high as 1000 to 2000 J/kg. Shear
and low-level forcing do not appear particularly favorable for strong
or organized storms, but could still see a few storms capable of
producing brief heavy rain through late Monday morning.

A cold front will slide in from the northwest through the day Monday
and bring a gradual drying trend through late afternoon. Airmass
behind the front won`t be quite as cold as the one that gave record
lows Saturday morning, but will still bring temperatures 10 to 15
degrees below normal with lows in the middle and upper 40s Monday
night. This could also yield to areas of fog toward sunrise Tuesday
similar to what happened Saturday morning.

Tuesday will be the coolest day of the week with post-frontal
temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70. A steady warming trend will
then set in after this point with highs reaching the upper 70s and
lower 80s by Friday. Could see a few showers or thunderstorms during
this warm air advection pattern, particularly Wednesday afternoon and
evening. With dry high pressure dominating the Great Lakes and Mid
Mississippi Valley through this time, the better chances for any rain
will be across far western Missouri and westward into Kansas. Better
chances for more widespread rain will arrive next weekend with the
arrival of another cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Sct thunderstorms are dvlpg acrs SE Nebraska...hi-res model now want
to keep this activity north of the terminals. However, the NAM and
GFS still cont to bring storms into the terminals overnight so have
kept VCTS mention in the TAF from 09Z-13Z. MVFR cigs are proggeed to
move into the terminals by 13Z. Some models even hint at possible IFR
cigs tomorrow morning however opted for low MVFR at this time. MVFR
cigs will cont into the afternoon although they should lift to 2-3kft
with some showers or drizzle possible at the terminals. Toomorrow
evenng as high pressure moves in cigs will sct out. Winds will be
out of the SE tonight btn 5-10kts however, a cold front will drop
thru the terminals btn 15Z-17Z veering winds to the north around
10kts. Winds will then further veer to the NE by late afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...73






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