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000
FXUS63 KSGF 271208
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
608 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Light rain was increasing in coverage over eastern Oklahoma this
morning, which will shift into southeast Kansas and the Missouri
Ozarks.

We followed the Hi-Res ARW with our precipitation and POP forecast
through today and tonight. This solution suggests placing light
rain further northwest by 12Z, and translating an axis of light
rain eastward across southern Missouri with time.

We think the areal coverage of measurable rain will be high,
however, rainfall amounts will be low. Many locations will only
experience measurements less than one tenth of an inch.

Light rain should linger across south central Missouri this
evening and tonight, eventually exiting the entire region by
Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)

A cooler air mass will have spread across southern Missouri by
Sunday bringing temperatures down into the 20s to start the day.
High pressure will be shifting directly overhead causing winds
to become light and variable under sunny skies.

An extended period of dry weather is expected heading into the
upcoming work week. Fast zonal flow will occur over most of the
nation`s mid section as northerly winds persist at the surface.
This pattern will keep moisture at bay, bringing dry weather.

These northerly winds will also allow some Polar air to move into
the Ozarks. Temperatures will plummet by Tuesday and Wednesday
with highs only in the 20s and lows in the teens.

Rain chances finally increase by Thursday night and Friday as a
storm system slowly approach from the west. Thermal fields will be
border line rain or snow for precipitation type. Therefore we have
a rain or snow worded in our forecast for Thursday night and
beyond. Details regarding precipitation type late next week should
be better understood in time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 558 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A cold front moved through the taf
sites over the past few hours. Some post frontal light
precipitation is occurring, but in general expect ifr/low end
mvfr ceilings to gradually improve somewhat over the next few
hours, especially at KJLN and KSGF. Lower clouds and precip will
linger a bit longer at KBBG. In general, lower ceilings are
expected to push off to the east for the latter half of the taf
period as the front moves farther off to the east.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 271208
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
608 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Light rain was increasing in coverage over eastern Oklahoma this
morning, which will shift into southeast Kansas and the Missouri
Ozarks.

We followed the Hi-Res ARW with our precipitation and POP forecast
through today and tonight. This solution suggests placing light
rain further northwest by 12Z, and translating an axis of light
rain eastward across southern Missouri with time.

We think the areal coverage of measurable rain will be high,
however, rainfall amounts will be low. Many locations will only
experience measurements less than one tenth of an inch.

Light rain should linger across south central Missouri this
evening and tonight, eventually exiting the entire region by
Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)

A cooler air mass will have spread across southern Missouri by
Sunday bringing temperatures down into the 20s to start the day.
High pressure will be shifting directly overhead causing winds
to become light and variable under sunny skies.

An extended period of dry weather is expected heading into the
upcoming work week. Fast zonal flow will occur over most of the
nation`s mid section as northerly winds persist at the surface.
This pattern will keep moisture at bay, bringing dry weather.

These northerly winds will also allow some Polar air to move into
the Ozarks. Temperatures will plummet by Tuesday and Wednesday
with highs only in the 20s and lows in the teens.

Rain chances finally increase by Thursday night and Friday as a
storm system slowly approach from the west. Thermal fields will be
border line rain or snow for precipitation type. Therefore we have
a rain or snow worded in our forecast for Thursday night and
beyond. Details regarding precipitation type late next week should
be better understood in time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 558 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A cold front moved through the taf
sites over the past few hours. Some post frontal light
precipitation is occurring, but in general expect ifr/low end
mvfr ceilings to gradually improve somewhat over the next few
hours, especially at KJLN and KSGF. Lower clouds and precip will
linger a bit longer at KBBG. In general, lower ceilings are
expected to push off to the east for the latter half of the taf
period as the front moves farther off to the east.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA





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000
FXUS63 KLSX 271157
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
557 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 338 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

Don`t be fooled by the mild conditions at daybreak; temperatures
will fall during the day as a cold front moves across the region. At
08z, the cold front stretched from SWRN MO through NERN MO, and was
just about to move through KIRK.

It looks like there will be a break in the rain this morning in many
areas before the next batch moves northeastward out of OK. Although
the vort max over Mexico in the base of the trough is forecast to
move through TX and remain south of MO/IL, an elongated shear axis
develops between that vort max and the one currently over NE/IA,
which will be located over SERN Ontario by 00z tonight. Despite the
slightly confluent flow aloft downstream of the vort max and shear
axis, pcpn across the southeastern half of the CWA is expected to be
supported by isentropic ascent along the 300-305 K sfcs (especially
after 18z), frontogenesis between 900-800mb (local WRF model fields
at 09z had a fair handle on the precip in eastern OK), and PW values
between 0.8" and 1" (+2SD for LSX in December).

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 338 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

(Tonight through Tuesday)

Main forecast problem tonight is how much precip to hold onto over
southeast sections of the CWA.  00z NAM certain appears to be the
outlier in ending almost all of the precip by 00z, while all of
the other synoptic scale models (GFS, ECMWF, and GEM) keep precip
over about the SE half of the CWA through 06z, with some lingering
in our far SE counties past midnight. Given that the trof axis
will still be well to our west by this evening feel that the
slower solutions are the way to go. Going PoP trends for tonight
still look pretty good (main tweak was to raise PoPs a bit over
our far SE counties in the 00-06z time frame to near 50%), but
anticipate that day shift will need to fine-tune these a bit more
once precip trends going into the mid-late afternoon become more
apparent. Will also mention of the rain/snow mix on the back edge
of the precip shield as the low level cold air deepens and
freezing levels drop.

The cold high pressure building into the region in the wake of
today`s front will push into the area overnight and control the
weather across the area on Sunday with more seasonable and dry late
December conditions.

All 00z guidance is in good agreement that E-W trof will be dropping
from Canada into the CONUS during the start of the new work week.
The resultant lowering of heights will allow Arctic air to build
into the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley on Monday, and
then spread south from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley by
Tuesday. This Arctic AMS appears to be fairly robust, with model
consensus indicating 850mb temps of at least -10 to -12C over the
northern half of the FA on Tuesday. Due to the intensity of the
cold air, it may be that hourly surface temps will have trouble
rebounding too much from their morning lows. Will also add a few
flurries to northern sections of the CWA on Monday night, tied to
the arrival of the Arctic air.

(Wednesday through Friday)

Medium range solutions are still suggesting the evolution of a split
flow regime heading into the latter half of the week.  Energy on the
western side of the aforementioned E-W trof is forecast to break
off and lead to the development of a cut-off low over the west
coast.  Meanwhile, eastern extension of trof rotates into the
eastern U.S. and is followed by additional shortwaves rotating
around cut-off low near Hudson`s Bay that produces broad trofing
over the eastern half of the U.S.

In the initial stages of this evolution, the weather over our area
should be relatively quiet as dynamics over the region remain fairly
benign.  The cold weather of Tuesday should continue into Wednesday
as the Arctic air remains locked over the area, with some modest
moderation in temps by Thursday.

However, the weather across the region may become increasingly
active heading into the last part of the week as the cut-off low
over the west coast begins to push east.  While there is agreement
in this overall trend the specifics between the different models
vary greatly and in an important way; the GFS takes the system in a
generally eastward track and brings it across the central Plains by
Friday night, while the ECMWF is much slower and much further south
with the upper system, taking in into w TX by 12z Sat.  Either
solution would suggest precipitation chances increasing across parts
of the CWA in the Thursday night/Friday time frame, but obviously
extent of the increase and exact winter ptype will be dependent on
which solution is more correct.  At least through Friday night gut
hunch is that ECMWF may be more correct as models are notoriously
too fast ejecting cut-off lows out of the western U.S. So for now
have kept PoPs in chance category late Thursday night and Friday
and have gone with a simple rain/snow mix...obviously details
will be refined with time. System bears watching so stay tuned...

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 537 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Expect gusty west to northwest winds to
continue for a few hours behind the front which already moved
through KCOU and KUIN. Winds will remain westerly to northwesterly
at KCOU and KUIN through the period, although sustained wind
speeds and wind gusts will both subside with time. There should
also be a slow improvement in the initially IFR to MVFR cigs once
drier air starts filtering into the region.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: A cold front was approaching from
the northwest at TAF issuance with fropa expected between 14-18z,
a few hours earlier than previously forecast. Winds will briefly
become southwesterly (210-230 deg) ahead of the front, then turn
westerly to northwesterly behind it. Post-frontal winds will
increase to 12-15 kts with gusts to 20-25 kts for a few hours
before subsiding. There may also be a brief period of drizzle or
light rain when the front moves through. Expect a slow improvement
in the initially MVFR cigs through the day as drier air filters in
behind the front, however some mid/high level cloudiness may
remain.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 271157
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
557 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 338 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

Don`t be fooled by the mild conditions at daybreak; temperatures
will fall during the day as a cold front moves across the region. At
08z, the cold front stretched from SWRN MO through NERN MO, and was
just about to move through KIRK.

It looks like there will be a break in the rain this morning in many
areas before the next batch moves northeastward out of OK. Although
the vort max over Mexico in the base of the trough is forecast to
move through TX and remain south of MO/IL, an elongated shear axis
develops between that vort max and the one currently over NE/IA,
which will be located over SERN Ontario by 00z tonight. Despite the
slightly confluent flow aloft downstream of the vort max and shear
axis, pcpn across the southeastern half of the CWA is expected to be
supported by isentropic ascent along the 300-305 K sfcs (especially
after 18z), frontogenesis between 900-800mb (local WRF model fields
at 09z had a fair handle on the precip in eastern OK), and PW values
between 0.8" and 1" (+2SD for LSX in December).

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 338 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

(Tonight through Tuesday)

Main forecast problem tonight is how much precip to hold onto over
southeast sections of the CWA.  00z NAM certain appears to be the
outlier in ending almost all of the precip by 00z, while all of
the other synoptic scale models (GFS, ECMWF, and GEM) keep precip
over about the SE half of the CWA through 06z, with some lingering
in our far SE counties past midnight. Given that the trof axis
will still be well to our west by this evening feel that the
slower solutions are the way to go. Going PoP trends for tonight
still look pretty good (main tweak was to raise PoPs a bit over
our far SE counties in the 00-06z time frame to near 50%), but
anticipate that day shift will need to fine-tune these a bit more
once precip trends going into the mid-late afternoon become more
apparent. Will also mention of the rain/snow mix on the back edge
of the precip shield as the low level cold air deepens and
freezing levels drop.

The cold high pressure building into the region in the wake of
today`s front will push into the area overnight and control the
weather across the area on Sunday with more seasonable and dry late
December conditions.

All 00z guidance is in good agreement that E-W trof will be dropping
from Canada into the CONUS during the start of the new work week.
The resultant lowering of heights will allow Arctic air to build
into the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley on Monday, and
then spread south from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley by
Tuesday. This Arctic AMS appears to be fairly robust, with model
consensus indicating 850mb temps of at least -10 to -12C over the
northern half of the FA on Tuesday. Due to the intensity of the
cold air, it may be that hourly surface temps will have trouble
rebounding too much from their morning lows. Will also add a few
flurries to northern sections of the CWA on Monday night, tied to
the arrival of the Arctic air.

(Wednesday through Friday)

Medium range solutions are still suggesting the evolution of a split
flow regime heading into the latter half of the week.  Energy on the
western side of the aforementioned E-W trof is forecast to break
off and lead to the development of a cut-off low over the west
coast.  Meanwhile, eastern extension of trof rotates into the
eastern U.S. and is followed by additional shortwaves rotating
around cut-off low near Hudson`s Bay that produces broad trofing
over the eastern half of the U.S.

In the initial stages of this evolution, the weather over our area
should be relatively quiet as dynamics over the region remain fairly
benign.  The cold weather of Tuesday should continue into Wednesday
as the Arctic air remains locked over the area, with some modest
moderation in temps by Thursday.

However, the weather across the region may become increasingly
active heading into the last part of the week as the cut-off low
over the west coast begins to push east.  While there is agreement
in this overall trend the specifics between the different models
vary greatly and in an important way; the GFS takes the system in a
generally eastward track and brings it across the central Plains by
Friday night, while the ECMWF is much slower and much further south
with the upper system, taking in into w TX by 12z Sat.  Either
solution would suggest precipitation chances increasing across parts
of the CWA in the Thursday night/Friday time frame, but obviously
extent of the increase and exact winter ptype will be dependent on
which solution is more correct.  At least through Friday night gut
hunch is that ECMWF may be more correct as models are notoriously
too fast ejecting cut-off lows out of the western U.S. So for now
have kept PoPs in chance category late Thursday night and Friday
and have gone with a simple rain/snow mix...obviously details
will be refined with time. System bears watching so stay tuned...

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 537 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Expect gusty west to northwest winds to
continue for a few hours behind the front which already moved
through KCOU and KUIN. Winds will remain westerly to northwesterly
at KCOU and KUIN through the period, although sustained wind
speeds and wind gusts will both subside with time. There should
also be a slow improvement in the initially IFR to MVFR cigs once
drier air starts filtering into the region.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: A cold front was approaching from
the northwest at TAF issuance with fropa expected between 14-18z,
a few hours earlier than previously forecast. Winds will briefly
become southwesterly (210-230 deg) ahead of the front, then turn
westerly to northwesterly behind it. Post-frontal winds will
increase to 12-15 kts with gusts to 20-25 kts for a few hours
before subsiding. There may also be a brief period of drizzle or
light rain when the front moves through. Expect a slow improvement
in the initially MVFR cigs through the day as drier air filters in
behind the front, however some mid/high level cloudiness may
remain.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 271157
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
557 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 338 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

Don`t be fooled by the mild conditions at daybreak; temperatures
will fall during the day as a cold front moves across the region. At
08z, the cold front stretched from SWRN MO through NERN MO, and was
just about to move through KIRK.

It looks like there will be a break in the rain this morning in many
areas before the next batch moves northeastward out of OK. Although
the vort max over Mexico in the base of the trough is forecast to
move through TX and remain south of MO/IL, an elongated shear axis
develops between that vort max and the one currently over NE/IA,
which will be located over SERN Ontario by 00z tonight. Despite the
slightly confluent flow aloft downstream of the vort max and shear
axis, pcpn across the southeastern half of the CWA is expected to be
supported by isentropic ascent along the 300-305 K sfcs (especially
after 18z), frontogenesis between 900-800mb (local WRF model fields
at 09z had a fair handle on the precip in eastern OK), and PW values
between 0.8" and 1" (+2SD for LSX in December).

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 338 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

(Tonight through Tuesday)

Main forecast problem tonight is how much precip to hold onto over
southeast sections of the CWA.  00z NAM certain appears to be the
outlier in ending almost all of the precip by 00z, while all of
the other synoptic scale models (GFS, ECMWF, and GEM) keep precip
over about the SE half of the CWA through 06z, with some lingering
in our far SE counties past midnight. Given that the trof axis
will still be well to our west by this evening feel that the
slower solutions are the way to go. Going PoP trends for tonight
still look pretty good (main tweak was to raise PoPs a bit over
our far SE counties in the 00-06z time frame to near 50%), but
anticipate that day shift will need to fine-tune these a bit more
once precip trends going into the mid-late afternoon become more
apparent. Will also mention of the rain/snow mix on the back edge
of the precip shield as the low level cold air deepens and
freezing levels drop.

The cold high pressure building into the region in the wake of
today`s front will push into the area overnight and control the
weather across the area on Sunday with more seasonable and dry late
December conditions.

All 00z guidance is in good agreement that E-W trof will be dropping
from Canada into the CONUS during the start of the new work week.
The resultant lowering of heights will allow Arctic air to build
into the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley on Monday, and
then spread south from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley by
Tuesday. This Arctic AMS appears to be fairly robust, with model
consensus indicating 850mb temps of at least -10 to -12C over the
northern half of the FA on Tuesday. Due to the intensity of the
cold air, it may be that hourly surface temps will have trouble
rebounding too much from their morning lows. Will also add a few
flurries to northern sections of the CWA on Monday night, tied to
the arrival of the Arctic air.

(Wednesday through Friday)

Medium range solutions are still suggesting the evolution of a split
flow regime heading into the latter half of the week.  Energy on the
western side of the aforementioned E-W trof is forecast to break
off and lead to the development of a cut-off low over the west
coast.  Meanwhile, eastern extension of trof rotates into the
eastern U.S. and is followed by additional shortwaves rotating
around cut-off low near Hudson`s Bay that produces broad trofing
over the eastern half of the U.S.

In the initial stages of this evolution, the weather over our area
should be relatively quiet as dynamics over the region remain fairly
benign.  The cold weather of Tuesday should continue into Wednesday
as the Arctic air remains locked over the area, with some modest
moderation in temps by Thursday.

However, the weather across the region may become increasingly
active heading into the last part of the week as the cut-off low
over the west coast begins to push east.  While there is agreement
in this overall trend the specifics between the different models
vary greatly and in an important way; the GFS takes the system in a
generally eastward track and brings it across the central Plains by
Friday night, while the ECMWF is much slower and much further south
with the upper system, taking in into w TX by 12z Sat.  Either
solution would suggest precipitation chances increasing across parts
of the CWA in the Thursday night/Friday time frame, but obviously
extent of the increase and exact winter ptype will be dependent on
which solution is more correct.  At least through Friday night gut
hunch is that ECMWF may be more correct as models are notoriously
too fast ejecting cut-off lows out of the western U.S. So for now
have kept PoPs in chance category late Thursday night and Friday
and have gone with a simple rain/snow mix...obviously details
will be refined with time. System bears watching so stay tuned...

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 537 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Expect gusty west to northwest winds to
continue for a few hours behind the front which already moved
through KCOU and KUIN. Winds will remain westerly to northwesterly
at KCOU and KUIN through the period, although sustained wind
speeds and wind gusts will both subside with time. There should
also be a slow improvement in the initially IFR to MVFR cigs once
drier air starts filtering into the region.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: A cold front was approaching from
the northwest at TAF issuance with fropa expected between 14-18z,
a few hours earlier than previously forecast. Winds will briefly
become southwesterly (210-230 deg) ahead of the front, then turn
westerly to northwesterly behind it. Post-frontal winds will
increase to 12-15 kts with gusts to 20-25 kts for a few hours
before subsiding. There may also be a brief period of drizzle or
light rain when the front moves through. Expect a slow improvement
in the initially MVFR cigs through the day as drier air filters in
behind the front, however some mid/high level cloudiness may
remain.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 271157
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
557 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 338 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

Don`t be fooled by the mild conditions at daybreak; temperatures
will fall during the day as a cold front moves across the region. At
08z, the cold front stretched from SWRN MO through NERN MO, and was
just about to move through KIRK.

It looks like there will be a break in the rain this morning in many
areas before the next batch moves northeastward out of OK. Although
the vort max over Mexico in the base of the trough is forecast to
move through TX and remain south of MO/IL, an elongated shear axis
develops between that vort max and the one currently over NE/IA,
which will be located over SERN Ontario by 00z tonight. Despite the
slightly confluent flow aloft downstream of the vort max and shear
axis, pcpn across the southeastern half of the CWA is expected to be
supported by isentropic ascent along the 300-305 K sfcs (especially
after 18z), frontogenesis between 900-800mb (local WRF model fields
at 09z had a fair handle on the precip in eastern OK), and PW values
between 0.8" and 1" (+2SD for LSX in December).

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 338 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

(Tonight through Tuesday)

Main forecast problem tonight is how much precip to hold onto over
southeast sections of the CWA.  00z NAM certain appears to be the
outlier in ending almost all of the precip by 00z, while all of
the other synoptic scale models (GFS, ECMWF, and GEM) keep precip
over about the SE half of the CWA through 06z, with some lingering
in our far SE counties past midnight. Given that the trof axis
will still be well to our west by this evening feel that the
slower solutions are the way to go. Going PoP trends for tonight
still look pretty good (main tweak was to raise PoPs a bit over
our far SE counties in the 00-06z time frame to near 50%), but
anticipate that day shift will need to fine-tune these a bit more
once precip trends going into the mid-late afternoon become more
apparent. Will also mention of the rain/snow mix on the back edge
of the precip shield as the low level cold air deepens and
freezing levels drop.

The cold high pressure building into the region in the wake of
today`s front will push into the area overnight and control the
weather across the area on Sunday with more seasonable and dry late
December conditions.

All 00z guidance is in good agreement that E-W trof will be dropping
from Canada into the CONUS during the start of the new work week.
The resultant lowering of heights will allow Arctic air to build
into the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley on Monday, and
then spread south from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley by
Tuesday. This Arctic AMS appears to be fairly robust, with model
consensus indicating 850mb temps of at least -10 to -12C over the
northern half of the FA on Tuesday. Due to the intensity of the
cold air, it may be that hourly surface temps will have trouble
rebounding too much from their morning lows. Will also add a few
flurries to northern sections of the CWA on Monday night, tied to
the arrival of the Arctic air.

(Wednesday through Friday)

Medium range solutions are still suggesting the evolution of a split
flow regime heading into the latter half of the week.  Energy on the
western side of the aforementioned E-W trof is forecast to break
off and lead to the development of a cut-off low over the west
coast.  Meanwhile, eastern extension of trof rotates into the
eastern U.S. and is followed by additional shortwaves rotating
around cut-off low near Hudson`s Bay that produces broad trofing
over the eastern half of the U.S.

In the initial stages of this evolution, the weather over our area
should be relatively quiet as dynamics over the region remain fairly
benign.  The cold weather of Tuesday should continue into Wednesday
as the Arctic air remains locked over the area, with some modest
moderation in temps by Thursday.

However, the weather across the region may become increasingly
active heading into the last part of the week as the cut-off low
over the west coast begins to push east.  While there is agreement
in this overall trend the specifics between the different models
vary greatly and in an important way; the GFS takes the system in a
generally eastward track and brings it across the central Plains by
Friday night, while the ECMWF is much slower and much further south
with the upper system, taking in into w TX by 12z Sat.  Either
solution would suggest precipitation chances increasing across parts
of the CWA in the Thursday night/Friday time frame, but obviously
extent of the increase and exact winter ptype will be dependent on
which solution is more correct.  At least through Friday night gut
hunch is that ECMWF may be more correct as models are notoriously
too fast ejecting cut-off lows out of the western U.S. So for now
have kept PoPs in chance category late Thursday night and Friday
and have gone with a simple rain/snow mix...obviously details
will be refined with time. System bears watching so stay tuned...

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 537 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Expect gusty west to northwest winds to
continue for a few hours behind the front which already moved
through KCOU and KUIN. Winds will remain westerly to northwesterly
at KCOU and KUIN through the period, although sustained wind
speeds and wind gusts will both subside with time. There should
also be a slow improvement in the initially IFR to MVFR cigs once
drier air starts filtering into the region.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: A cold front was approaching from
the northwest at TAF issuance with fropa expected between 14-18z,
a few hours earlier than previously forecast. Winds will briefly
become southwesterly (210-230 deg) ahead of the front, then turn
westerly to northwesterly behind it. Post-frontal winds will
increase to 12-15 kts with gusts to 20-25 kts for a few hours
before subsiding. There may also be a brief period of drizzle or
light rain when the front moves through. Expect a slow improvement
in the initially MVFR cigs through the day as drier air filters in
behind the front, however some mid/high level cloudiness may
remain.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KEAX 271138
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
538 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

Early morning observations from the radar still shows scattered
light showers moving northeast across the region following on the
heels of a cold front that is sweeping east through Missouri early
this morning. It`s notable this morning as its not very often that
you see a temperature of 52 degrees at 2 AM in the morning in late
December. Cooler temperatures will continue to sweep in across
eastern Kansas and Missouri through the day today, making for a cold
start to the weekend. Do not expect much of a diurnal trend as a
result of the persistent cold air advection through the day
resulting in highs this afternoon in the 30s for most areas. As for
precipitation this morning, light showers continue to follow behind
the front, with a jet streak noted on water vapor imagery from
central Texas through the southeast corner of Kansas into western
Missouri. This streak might help induce enough continuing lift to
squeeze some more light precipitation out of the sky this morning.
Sounding thermodynamics continue to lean towards liquid
precipitation as it exits, but with snow and cold air just off to
the northwest felt the need to keep a mix of light rain or snow as
possible on the back side of the exiting system. However, there is
no expectation for any accumulating snow.

Cold temperatures will persist through the rest of the weekend and
the coming week into the New Year as the general pattern becomes
locally rather flat. Thus, as the cold Canadian air filters south
through the Plains there does not appear to be any significant
weather feature that will push warmer air back into the region. In
fact temperatures will get down right fridge for the middle of the
work week as a system rotating across Hudson Bay will help push a
1050mb high south along the front range of the Rockies starting late
this weekend. This places the arrival of still more cold air in our
region in the Tuesday to Wednesday periods of the work week.
However, given the strength of the surface high and speed with which
it advects in, thoughts are that if there is any low clouds around
frontogenic forcing along the leading edge could force some snow
flakes to fall from the sky Monday night. Do not expect any
significant accumulations owing to limited moisture and general lack
of a focusing feature beyond the potential frontogenic forcing.

Otherwise, expect temperatures to remain rather fridge Tuesday and
Wednesday as the surface high slides across the region. Of interest
for late next week will be the potential for a Thursday night
through Friday into Saturday as another system moves through the
Plains States. Have placed chance rain and snow POPs in those far
outer periods, but will concede that confidence is low as medium
range models are in a bit of disagreement. On the up side, given the
current timing of this late work week system, it shouldn`t mess up
your New Years Eve plans.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 538 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

A range of MVFR conditions continue to prevail at the terminals this
morning as the lingering showers leave behind the exiting cold front.
Still more activity is noted moving into southern Missouri early this
morning, but current trajectories will keep any threat from
precipitation well to the south and east of the terminals. Have kept
a prevailing group in for the morning hours with low end MVFR CIGs.
Upstream observations are advertising a slight reduction in ceilings
with the brief period of a gusty northwest wind, after which skies
will slowly begin clearing with VFR conditions expected for the
remainder of this TAF cycle.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KEAX 271138
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
538 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

Early morning observations from the radar still shows scattered
light showers moving northeast across the region following on the
heels of a cold front that is sweeping east through Missouri early
this morning. It`s notable this morning as its not very often that
you see a temperature of 52 degrees at 2 AM in the morning in late
December. Cooler temperatures will continue to sweep in across
eastern Kansas and Missouri through the day today, making for a cold
start to the weekend. Do not expect much of a diurnal trend as a
result of the persistent cold air advection through the day
resulting in highs this afternoon in the 30s for most areas. As for
precipitation this morning, light showers continue to follow behind
the front, with a jet streak noted on water vapor imagery from
central Texas through the southeast corner of Kansas into western
Missouri. This streak might help induce enough continuing lift to
squeeze some more light precipitation out of the sky this morning.
Sounding thermodynamics continue to lean towards liquid
precipitation as it exits, but with snow and cold air just off to
the northwest felt the need to keep a mix of light rain or snow as
possible on the back side of the exiting system. However, there is
no expectation for any accumulating snow.

Cold temperatures will persist through the rest of the weekend and
the coming week into the New Year as the general pattern becomes
locally rather flat. Thus, as the cold Canadian air filters south
through the Plains there does not appear to be any significant
weather feature that will push warmer air back into the region. In
fact temperatures will get down right fridge for the middle of the
work week as a system rotating across Hudson Bay will help push a
1050mb high south along the front range of the Rockies starting late
this weekend. This places the arrival of still more cold air in our
region in the Tuesday to Wednesday periods of the work week.
However, given the strength of the surface high and speed with which
it advects in, thoughts are that if there is any low clouds around
frontogenic forcing along the leading edge could force some snow
flakes to fall from the sky Monday night. Do not expect any
significant accumulations owing to limited moisture and general lack
of a focusing feature beyond the potential frontogenic forcing.

Otherwise, expect temperatures to remain rather fridge Tuesday and
Wednesday as the surface high slides across the region. Of interest
for late next week will be the potential for a Thursday night
through Friday into Saturday as another system moves through the
Plains States. Have placed chance rain and snow POPs in those far
outer periods, but will concede that confidence is low as medium
range models are in a bit of disagreement. On the up side, given the
current timing of this late work week system, it shouldn`t mess up
your New Years Eve plans.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 538 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

A range of MVFR conditions continue to prevail at the terminals this
morning as the lingering showers leave behind the exiting cold front.
Still more activity is noted moving into southern Missouri early this
morning, but current trajectories will keep any threat from
precipitation well to the south and east of the terminals. Have kept
a prevailing group in for the morning hours with low end MVFR CIGs.
Upstream observations are advertising a slight reduction in ceilings
with the brief period of a gusty northwest wind, after which skies
will slowly begin clearing with VFR conditions expected for the
remainder of this TAF cycle.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KEAX 271138
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
538 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

Early morning observations from the radar still shows scattered
light showers moving northeast across the region following on the
heels of a cold front that is sweeping east through Missouri early
this morning. It`s notable this morning as its not very often that
you see a temperature of 52 degrees at 2 AM in the morning in late
December. Cooler temperatures will continue to sweep in across
eastern Kansas and Missouri through the day today, making for a cold
start to the weekend. Do not expect much of a diurnal trend as a
result of the persistent cold air advection through the day
resulting in highs this afternoon in the 30s for most areas. As for
precipitation this morning, light showers continue to follow behind
the front, with a jet streak noted on water vapor imagery from
central Texas through the southeast corner of Kansas into western
Missouri. This streak might help induce enough continuing lift to
squeeze some more light precipitation out of the sky this morning.
Sounding thermodynamics continue to lean towards liquid
precipitation as it exits, but with snow and cold air just off to
the northwest felt the need to keep a mix of light rain or snow as
possible on the back side of the exiting system. However, there is
no expectation for any accumulating snow.

Cold temperatures will persist through the rest of the weekend and
the coming week into the New Year as the general pattern becomes
locally rather flat. Thus, as the cold Canadian air filters south
through the Plains there does not appear to be any significant
weather feature that will push warmer air back into the region. In
fact temperatures will get down right fridge for the middle of the
work week as a system rotating across Hudson Bay will help push a
1050mb high south along the front range of the Rockies starting late
this weekend. This places the arrival of still more cold air in our
region in the Tuesday to Wednesday periods of the work week.
However, given the strength of the surface high and speed with which
it advects in, thoughts are that if there is any low clouds around
frontogenic forcing along the leading edge could force some snow
flakes to fall from the sky Monday night. Do not expect any
significant accumulations owing to limited moisture and general lack
of a focusing feature beyond the potential frontogenic forcing.

Otherwise, expect temperatures to remain rather fridge Tuesday and
Wednesday as the surface high slides across the region. Of interest
for late next week will be the potential for a Thursday night
through Friday into Saturday as another system moves through the
Plains States. Have placed chance rain and snow POPs in those far
outer periods, but will concede that confidence is low as medium
range models are in a bit of disagreement. On the up side, given the
current timing of this late work week system, it shouldn`t mess up
your New Years Eve plans.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 538 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

A range of MVFR conditions continue to prevail at the terminals this
morning as the lingering showers leave behind the exiting cold front.
Still more activity is noted moving into southern Missouri early this
morning, but current trajectories will keep any threat from
precipitation well to the south and east of the terminals. Have kept
a prevailing group in for the morning hours with low end MVFR CIGs.
Upstream observations are advertising a slight reduction in ceilings
with the brief period of a gusty northwest wind, after which skies
will slowly begin clearing with VFR conditions expected for the
remainder of this TAF cycle.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KEAX 271138
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
538 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

Early morning observations from the radar still shows scattered
light showers moving northeast across the region following on the
heels of a cold front that is sweeping east through Missouri early
this morning. It`s notable this morning as its not very often that
you see a temperature of 52 degrees at 2 AM in the morning in late
December. Cooler temperatures will continue to sweep in across
eastern Kansas and Missouri through the day today, making for a cold
start to the weekend. Do not expect much of a diurnal trend as a
result of the persistent cold air advection through the day
resulting in highs this afternoon in the 30s for most areas. As for
precipitation this morning, light showers continue to follow behind
the front, with a jet streak noted on water vapor imagery from
central Texas through the southeast corner of Kansas into western
Missouri. This streak might help induce enough continuing lift to
squeeze some more light precipitation out of the sky this morning.
Sounding thermodynamics continue to lean towards liquid
precipitation as it exits, but with snow and cold air just off to
the northwest felt the need to keep a mix of light rain or snow as
possible on the back side of the exiting system. However, there is
no expectation for any accumulating snow.

Cold temperatures will persist through the rest of the weekend and
the coming week into the New Year as the general pattern becomes
locally rather flat. Thus, as the cold Canadian air filters south
through the Plains there does not appear to be any significant
weather feature that will push warmer air back into the region. In
fact temperatures will get down right fridge for the middle of the
work week as a system rotating across Hudson Bay will help push a
1050mb high south along the front range of the Rockies starting late
this weekend. This places the arrival of still more cold air in our
region in the Tuesday to Wednesday periods of the work week.
However, given the strength of the surface high and speed with which
it advects in, thoughts are that if there is any low clouds around
frontogenic forcing along the leading edge could force some snow
flakes to fall from the sky Monday night. Do not expect any
significant accumulations owing to limited moisture and general lack
of a focusing feature beyond the potential frontogenic forcing.

Otherwise, expect temperatures to remain rather fridge Tuesday and
Wednesday as the surface high slides across the region. Of interest
for late next week will be the potential for a Thursday night
through Friday into Saturday as another system moves through the
Plains States. Have placed chance rain and snow POPs in those far
outer periods, but will concede that confidence is low as medium
range models are in a bit of disagreement. On the up side, given the
current timing of this late work week system, it shouldn`t mess up
your New Years Eve plans.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 538 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

A range of MVFR conditions continue to prevail at the terminals this
morning as the lingering showers leave behind the exiting cold front.
Still more activity is noted moving into southern Missouri early this
morning, but current trajectories will keep any threat from
precipitation well to the south and east of the terminals. Have kept
a prevailing group in for the morning hours with low end MVFR CIGs.
Upstream observations are advertising a slight reduction in ceilings
with the brief period of a gusty northwest wind, after which skies
will slowly begin clearing with VFR conditions expected for the
remainder of this TAF cycle.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KEAX 270947
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
347 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2014


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

Early morning observations from the radar still shows scattered
light showers moving northeast across the region following on the
heels of a cold front that is sweeping east through Missouri early
this morning. It`s notable this morning as its not very often that
you see a temperature of 52 degrees at 2 AM in the morning in late
December. Cooler temperatures will continue to sweep in across
eastern Kansas and Missouri through the day today, making for a cold
start to the weekend. Do not expect much of a diurnal trend as a
result of the persistent cold air advection through the day
resulting in highs this afternoon in the 30s for most areas. As for
precipitation this morning, light showers continue to follow behind
the front, with a jet streak noted on water vapor imagery from
central Texas through the southeast corner of Kansas into western
Missouri. This streak might help induce enough continuing lift to
squeeze some more light precipitation out of the sky this morning.
Sounding thermodynamics continue to lean towards liquid
precipitation as it exits, but with snow and cold air just off to
the northwest felt the need to keep a mix of light rain or snow as
possible on the back side of the exiting system. However, there is
no expectation for any accumulating snow.

Cold temperatures will persist through the rest of the weekend and
the coming week into the New Year as the general pattern becomes
locally rather flat. Thus, as the cold Canadian air filters south
through the Plains there does not appear to be any significant
weather feature that will push warmer air back into the region. In
fact temperatures will get down right fridge for the middle of the
work week as a system rotating across Hudson Bay will help push a
1050mb high south along the front range of the Rockies starting late
this weekend. This places the arrival of still more cold air in our
region in the Tuesday to Wednesday periods of the work week.
However, given the strength of the surface high and speed with which
it advects in, thoughts are that if there is any low clouds around
frontogenic forcing along the leading edge could force some snow
flakes to fall from the sky Monday night. Do not expect any
significant accumulations owing to limited moisture and general lack
of a focusing feature beyond the potential frontogenic forcing.

Otherwise, expect temperatures to remain rather fridge Tuesday and
Wednesday as the surface high slides across the region. Of interest
for late next week will be the potential for a Thursday night
through Friday into Saturday as another system moves through the
Plains States. Have placed chance rain and snow POPs in those far
outer periods, but will concede that confidence is low as medium
range models are in a bit of disagreement. On the up side, given the
current timing of this late work week system, it shouldn`t mess up
your New Years Eve plans.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Ceilings have finally begun to lower towards low MVFR and upper IFR
range as light rain across eastern KS moves northeastward towards
KSTJ and KMCI. KMKC looks to stay on the edge of the heavier band
with just a quick light shower in the near term. Question is if
disjointed band of rain showers currently across northeast OK will be
able to hold up and move up into eastern KS over the next several
hours. Lower ceilings and a reduction of VISIBILITIES are expected
to move in behind this current rain band given upstream obs. IFR deck
will begin to scatter out by mid morning with MVFR deck looking to
scatter out by 20-21Z. Skies will clear as the upper level system
moves east and surface high pressure moves into the region.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...PMM








000
FXUS63 KEAX 270947
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
347 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2014


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

Early morning observations from the radar still shows scattered
light showers moving northeast across the region following on the
heels of a cold front that is sweeping east through Missouri early
this morning. It`s notable this morning as its not very often that
you see a temperature of 52 degrees at 2 AM in the morning in late
December. Cooler temperatures will continue to sweep in across
eastern Kansas and Missouri through the day today, making for a cold
start to the weekend. Do not expect much of a diurnal trend as a
result of the persistent cold air advection through the day
resulting in highs this afternoon in the 30s for most areas. As for
precipitation this morning, light showers continue to follow behind
the front, with a jet streak noted on water vapor imagery from
central Texas through the southeast corner of Kansas into western
Missouri. This streak might help induce enough continuing lift to
squeeze some more light precipitation out of the sky this morning.
Sounding thermodynamics continue to lean towards liquid
precipitation as it exits, but with snow and cold air just off to
the northwest felt the need to keep a mix of light rain or snow as
possible on the back side of the exiting system. However, there is
no expectation for any accumulating snow.

Cold temperatures will persist through the rest of the weekend and
the coming week into the New Year as the general pattern becomes
locally rather flat. Thus, as the cold Canadian air filters south
through the Plains there does not appear to be any significant
weather feature that will push warmer air back into the region. In
fact temperatures will get down right fridge for the middle of the
work week as a system rotating across Hudson Bay will help push a
1050mb high south along the front range of the Rockies starting late
this weekend. This places the arrival of still more cold air in our
region in the Tuesday to Wednesday periods of the work week.
However, given the strength of the surface high and speed with which
it advects in, thoughts are that if there is any low clouds around
frontogenic forcing along the leading edge could force some snow
flakes to fall from the sky Monday night. Do not expect any
significant accumulations owing to limited moisture and general lack
of a focusing feature beyond the potential frontogenic forcing.

Otherwise, expect temperatures to remain rather fridge Tuesday and
Wednesday as the surface high slides across the region. Of interest
for late next week will be the potential for a Thursday night
through Friday into Saturday as another system moves through the
Plains States. Have placed chance rain and snow POPs in those far
outer periods, but will concede that confidence is low as medium
range models are in a bit of disagreement. On the up side, given the
current timing of this late work week system, it shouldn`t mess up
your New Years Eve plans.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Ceilings have finally begun to lower towards low MVFR and upper IFR
range as light rain across eastern KS moves northeastward towards
KSTJ and KMCI. KMKC looks to stay on the edge of the heavier band
with just a quick light shower in the near term. Question is if
disjointed band of rain showers currently across northeast OK will be
able to hold up and move up into eastern KS over the next several
hours. Lower ceilings and a reduction of VISIBILITIES are expected
to move in behind this current rain band given upstream obs. IFR deck
will begin to scatter out by mid morning with MVFR deck looking to
scatter out by 20-21Z. Skies will clear as the upper level system
moves east and surface high pressure moves into the region.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...PMM








000
FXUS63 KEAX 270947
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
347 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2014


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

Early morning observations from the radar still shows scattered
light showers moving northeast across the region following on the
heels of a cold front that is sweeping east through Missouri early
this morning. It`s notable this morning as its not very often that
you see a temperature of 52 degrees at 2 AM in the morning in late
December. Cooler temperatures will continue to sweep in across
eastern Kansas and Missouri through the day today, making for a cold
start to the weekend. Do not expect much of a diurnal trend as a
result of the persistent cold air advection through the day
resulting in highs this afternoon in the 30s for most areas. As for
precipitation this morning, light showers continue to follow behind
the front, with a jet streak noted on water vapor imagery from
central Texas through the southeast corner of Kansas into western
Missouri. This streak might help induce enough continuing lift to
squeeze some more light precipitation out of the sky this morning.
Sounding thermodynamics continue to lean towards liquid
precipitation as it exits, but with snow and cold air just off to
the northwest felt the need to keep a mix of light rain or snow as
possible on the back side of the exiting system. However, there is
no expectation for any accumulating snow.

Cold temperatures will persist through the rest of the weekend and
the coming week into the New Year as the general pattern becomes
locally rather flat. Thus, as the cold Canadian air filters south
through the Plains there does not appear to be any significant
weather feature that will push warmer air back into the region. In
fact temperatures will get down right fridge for the middle of the
work week as a system rotating across Hudson Bay will help push a
1050mb high south along the front range of the Rockies starting late
this weekend. This places the arrival of still more cold air in our
region in the Tuesday to Wednesday periods of the work week.
However, given the strength of the surface high and speed with which
it advects in, thoughts are that if there is any low clouds around
frontogenic forcing along the leading edge could force some snow
flakes to fall from the sky Monday night. Do not expect any
significant accumulations owing to limited moisture and general lack
of a focusing feature beyond the potential frontogenic forcing.

Otherwise, expect temperatures to remain rather fridge Tuesday and
Wednesday as the surface high slides across the region. Of interest
for late next week will be the potential for a Thursday night
through Friday into Saturday as another system moves through the
Plains States. Have placed chance rain and snow POPs in those far
outer periods, but will concede that confidence is low as medium
range models are in a bit of disagreement. On the up side, given the
current timing of this late work week system, it shouldn`t mess up
your New Years Eve plans.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Ceilings have finally begun to lower towards low MVFR and upper IFR
range as light rain across eastern KS moves northeastward towards
KSTJ and KMCI. KMKC looks to stay on the edge of the heavier band
with just a quick light shower in the near term. Question is if
disjointed band of rain showers currently across northeast OK will be
able to hold up and move up into eastern KS over the next several
hours. Lower ceilings and a reduction of VISIBILITIES are expected
to move in behind this current rain band given upstream obs. IFR deck
will begin to scatter out by mid morning with MVFR deck looking to
scatter out by 20-21Z. Skies will clear as the upper level system
moves east and surface high pressure moves into the region.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...PMM








000
FXUS63 KEAX 270947
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
347 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2014


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

Early morning observations from the radar still shows scattered
light showers moving northeast across the region following on the
heels of a cold front that is sweeping east through Missouri early
this morning. It`s notable this morning as its not very often that
you see a temperature of 52 degrees at 2 AM in the morning in late
December. Cooler temperatures will continue to sweep in across
eastern Kansas and Missouri through the day today, making for a cold
start to the weekend. Do not expect much of a diurnal trend as a
result of the persistent cold air advection through the day
resulting in highs this afternoon in the 30s for most areas. As for
precipitation this morning, light showers continue to follow behind
the front, with a jet streak noted on water vapor imagery from
central Texas through the southeast corner of Kansas into western
Missouri. This streak might help induce enough continuing lift to
squeeze some more light precipitation out of the sky this morning.
Sounding thermodynamics continue to lean towards liquid
precipitation as it exits, but with snow and cold air just off to
the northwest felt the need to keep a mix of light rain or snow as
possible on the back side of the exiting system. However, there is
no expectation for any accumulating snow.

Cold temperatures will persist through the rest of the weekend and
the coming week into the New Year as the general pattern becomes
locally rather flat. Thus, as the cold Canadian air filters south
through the Plains there does not appear to be any significant
weather feature that will push warmer air back into the region. In
fact temperatures will get down right fridge for the middle of the
work week as a system rotating across Hudson Bay will help push a
1050mb high south along the front range of the Rockies starting late
this weekend. This places the arrival of still more cold air in our
region in the Tuesday to Wednesday periods of the work week.
However, given the strength of the surface high and speed with which
it advects in, thoughts are that if there is any low clouds around
frontogenic forcing along the leading edge could force some snow
flakes to fall from the sky Monday night. Do not expect any
significant accumulations owing to limited moisture and general lack
of a focusing feature beyond the potential frontogenic forcing.

Otherwise, expect temperatures to remain rather fridge Tuesday and
Wednesday as the surface high slides across the region. Of interest
for late next week will be the potential for a Thursday night
through Friday into Saturday as another system moves through the
Plains States. Have placed chance rain and snow POPs in those far
outer periods, but will concede that confidence is low as medium
range models are in a bit of disagreement. On the up side, given the
current timing of this late work week system, it shouldn`t mess up
your New Years Eve plans.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Ceilings have finally begun to lower towards low MVFR and upper IFR
range as light rain across eastern KS moves northeastward towards
KSTJ and KMCI. KMKC looks to stay on the edge of the heavier band
with just a quick light shower in the near term. Question is if
disjointed band of rain showers currently across northeast OK will be
able to hold up and move up into eastern KS over the next several
hours. Lower ceilings and a reduction of VISIBILITIES are expected
to move in behind this current rain band given upstream obs. IFR deck
will begin to scatter out by mid morning with MVFR deck looking to
scatter out by 20-21Z. Skies will clear as the upper level system
moves east and surface high pressure moves into the region.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...PMM








000
FXUS63 KLSX 270939
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
339 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 338 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

Don`t be fooled by the mild conditions at daybreak; temperatures
will fall during the day as a cold front moves across the region. At
08z, the cold front stretched from SWRN MO through NERN MO, and was
just about to move through KIRK.

It looks like there will be a break in the rain this morning in many
areas before the next batch moves northeastward out of OK. Although
the vort max over Mexico in the base of the trough is forecast to
move through TX and remain south of MO/IL, an elongated shear axis
develops between that vort max and the one currently over NE/IA,
which will be located over SERN Ontario by 00z tonight. Despite the
slightly confluent flow aloft downstream of the vort max and shear
axis, pcpn across the southeastern half of the CWA is expected to be
supported by isentropic ascent along the 300-305 K sfcs (especially
after 18z), frontogenesis between 900-800mb (local WRF model fields
at 09z had a fair handle on the precip in eastern OK), and PW values
between 0.8" and 1" (+2SD for LSX in December).

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 338 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

(Tonight through Tuesday)

Main forecast problem tonight is how much precip to hold onto over
southeast sections of the CWA.  00z NAM certain appears to be the
outlier in ending almost all of the precip by 00z, while all of
the other synoptic scale models (GFS, ECMWF, and GEM) keep precip
over about the SE half of the CWA through 06z, with some lingering
in our far SE counties past midnight. Given that the trof axis
will still be well to our west by this evening feel that the
slower solutions are the way to go. Going PoP trends for tonight
still look pretty good (main tweak was to raise PoPs a bit over
our far SE counties in the 00-06z time frame to near 50%), but
anticipate that day shift will need to fine-tune these a bit more
once precip trends going into the mid-late afternoon become more
apparent. Will also mention of the rain/snow mix on the back edge
of the precip shield as the low level cold air deepens and
freezing levels drop.

The cold high pressure building into the region in the wake of
today`s front will push into the area overnight and control the
weather across the area on Sunday with more seasonable and dry late
December conditions.

All 00z guidance is in good agreement that E-W trof will be dropping
from Canada into the CONUS during the start of the new work week.
The resultant lowering of heights will allow Arctic air to build
into the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley on Monday, and
then spread south from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley by
Tuesday. This Arctic AMS appears to be fairly robust, with model
consensus indicating 850mb temps of at least -10 to -12C over the
northern half of the FA on Tuesday. Due to the intensity of the
cold air, it may be that hourly surface temps will have trouble
rebounding too much from their morning lows. Will also add a few
flurries to northern sections of the CWA on Monday night, tied to
the arrival of the Arctic air.

(Wednesday through Friday)

Medium range solutions are still suggesting the evolution of a split
flow regime heading into the latter half of the week.  Energy on the
western side of the aforementioned E-W trof is forecast to break
off and lead to the development of a cut-off low over the west
coast.  Meanwhile, eastern extension of trof rotates into the
eastern U.S. and is followed by additional shortwaves rotating
around cut-off low near Hudson`s Bay that produces broad trofing
over the eastern half of the U.S.

In the initial stages of this evolution, the weather over our area
should be relatively quiet as dynamics over the region remain fairly
benign.  The cold weather of Tuesday should continue into Wednesday
as the Arctic air remains locked over the area, with some modest
moderation in temps by Thursday.

However, the weather across the region may become increasingly
active heading into the last part of the week as the cut-off low
over the west coast begins to push east.  While there is agreement
in this overall trend the specifics between the different models
vary greatly and in an important way; the GFS takes the system in a
generally eastward track and brings it across the central Plains by
Friday night, while the ECMWF is much slower and much further south
with the upper system, taking in into w TX by 12z Sat.  Either
solution would suggest precipitation chances increasing across parts
of the CWA in the Thursday night/Friday time frame, but obviously
extent of the increase and exact winter ptype will be dependent on
which solution is more correct.  At least through Friday night gut
hunch is that ECMWF may be more correct as models are notoriously
too fast ejecting cut-off lows out of the western U.S. So for now
have kept PoPs in chance category late Thursday night and Friday
and have gone with a simple rain/snow mix...obviously details
will be refined with time. System bears watching so stay tuned...

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1043 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014
Area of light rain should exit the KSTL metro area by around 08Z,
with only occaisional sprinkles thereafter through the night. MVFR
ceilings should hold through the night and into the morning on
Saturday at all TAF sites. Ceilings will gradually start to lift
to VFR range by mid morning at KUIN, then at KSTL by mid
afternoon. Cold front will reach KCOU by around 12Z, and KSTL by
around 16Z with winds veering to 280 degrees behind the front.

Specifics for KSTL: Main area of light rain should exit KSTL TAF
site by around 08Z. Only isolated very light showers or sprinkles
are expected for the remainder of the night. MVFR ceilings will
last through the night and into early afternoon on Saturday, then
gradually lift to VFR range before sunset. Ahead of an
approaching cold front, winds will veer to 230 degrees around 14Z,
then to 280 degrees after frontal passage around 16Z.

Browning

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 270939
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
339 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 338 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

Don`t be fooled by the mild conditions at daybreak; temperatures
will fall during the day as a cold front moves across the region. At
08z, the cold front stretched from SWRN MO through NERN MO, and was
just about to move through KIRK.

It looks like there will be a break in the rain this morning in many
areas before the next batch moves northeastward out of OK. Although
the vort max over Mexico in the base of the trough is forecast to
move through TX and remain south of MO/IL, an elongated shear axis
develops between that vort max and the one currently over NE/IA,
which will be located over SERN Ontario by 00z tonight. Despite the
slightly confluent flow aloft downstream of the vort max and shear
axis, pcpn across the southeastern half of the CWA is expected to be
supported by isentropic ascent along the 300-305 K sfcs (especially
after 18z), frontogenesis between 900-800mb (local WRF model fields
at 09z had a fair handle on the precip in eastern OK), and PW values
between 0.8" and 1" (+2SD for LSX in December).

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 338 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

(Tonight through Tuesday)

Main forecast problem tonight is how much precip to hold onto over
southeast sections of the CWA.  00z NAM certain appears to be the
outlier in ending almost all of the precip by 00z, while all of
the other synoptic scale models (GFS, ECMWF, and GEM) keep precip
over about the SE half of the CWA through 06z, with some lingering
in our far SE counties past midnight. Given that the trof axis
will still be well to our west by this evening feel that the
slower solutions are the way to go. Going PoP trends for tonight
still look pretty good (main tweak was to raise PoPs a bit over
our far SE counties in the 00-06z time frame to near 50%), but
anticipate that day shift will need to fine-tune these a bit more
once precip trends going into the mid-late afternoon become more
apparent. Will also mention of the rain/snow mix on the back edge
of the precip shield as the low level cold air deepens and
freezing levels drop.

The cold high pressure building into the region in the wake of
today`s front will push into the area overnight and control the
weather across the area on Sunday with more seasonable and dry late
December conditions.

All 00z guidance is in good agreement that E-W trof will be dropping
from Canada into the CONUS during the start of the new work week.
The resultant lowering of heights will allow Arctic air to build
into the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley on Monday, and
then spread south from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley by
Tuesday. This Arctic AMS appears to be fairly robust, with model
consensus indicating 850mb temps of at least -10 to -12C over the
northern half of the FA on Tuesday. Due to the intensity of the
cold air, it may be that hourly surface temps will have trouble
rebounding too much from their morning lows. Will also add a few
flurries to northern sections of the CWA on Monday night, tied to
the arrival of the Arctic air.

(Wednesday through Friday)

Medium range solutions are still suggesting the evolution of a split
flow regime heading into the latter half of the week.  Energy on the
western side of the aforementioned E-W trof is forecast to break
off and lead to the development of a cut-off low over the west
coast.  Meanwhile, eastern extension of trof rotates into the
eastern U.S. and is followed by additional shortwaves rotating
around cut-off low near Hudson`s Bay that produces broad trofing
over the eastern half of the U.S.

In the initial stages of this evolution, the weather over our area
should be relatively quiet as dynamics over the region remain fairly
benign.  The cold weather of Tuesday should continue into Wednesday
as the Arctic air remains locked over the area, with some modest
moderation in temps by Thursday.

However, the weather across the region may become increasingly
active heading into the last part of the week as the cut-off low
over the west coast begins to push east.  While there is agreement
in this overall trend the specifics between the different models
vary greatly and in an important way; the GFS takes the system in a
generally eastward track and brings it across the central Plains by
Friday night, while the ECMWF is much slower and much further south
with the upper system, taking in into w TX by 12z Sat.  Either
solution would suggest precipitation chances increasing across parts
of the CWA in the Thursday night/Friday time frame, but obviously
extent of the increase and exact winter ptype will be dependent on
which solution is more correct.  At least through Friday night gut
hunch is that ECMWF may be more correct as models are notoriously
too fast ejecting cut-off lows out of the western U.S. So for now
have kept PoPs in chance category late Thursday night and Friday
and have gone with a simple rain/snow mix...obviously details
will be refined with time. System bears watching so stay tuned...

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1043 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014
Area of light rain should exit the KSTL metro area by around 08Z,
with only occaisional sprinkles thereafter through the night. MVFR
ceilings should hold through the night and into the morning on
Saturday at all TAF sites. Ceilings will gradually start to lift
to VFR range by mid morning at KUIN, then at KSTL by mid
afternoon. Cold front will reach KCOU by around 12Z, and KSTL by
around 16Z with winds veering to 280 degrees behind the front.

Specifics for KSTL: Main area of light rain should exit KSTL TAF
site by around 08Z. Only isolated very light showers or sprinkles
are expected for the remainder of the night. MVFR ceilings will
last through the night and into early afternoon on Saturday, then
gradually lift to VFR range before sunset. Ahead of an
approaching cold front, winds will veer to 230 degrees around 14Z,
then to 280 degrees after frontal passage around 16Z.

Browning

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 270853
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
253 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Light rain was increasing in coverage over eastern Oklahoma this
morning, which will shift into southeast Kansas and the Missouri
Ozarks.

We followed the Hi-Res ARW with our precipitation and POP forecast
through today and tonight. This solution suggests placing light
rain further northwest by 12Z, and translating an axis of light
rain eastward across southern Missouri with time.

We think the areal coverage of measurable rain will be high,
however, rainfall amounts will be low. Many locations will only
experience measurements less than one tenth of an inch.

Light rain should linger across south central Missouri this
evening and tonight, eventually exiting the entire region by
Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)

A cooler airmass will have spread across southern Missouri by
Sunday bringing temperatures down into the 20s to start the day.
High pressure will be shifting directly overhead causing winds
to become light and variable under sunny skies.

An extended period of dry weather is expected heading into the
upcoming work week. Fast zonal flow will occur over most of the
nation`s mid section as northerly winds persist at the surface.
This pattern will keep moisture at bay, bringing dry weather.

These northerly winds will also allow some Polar air to move into
the Ozarks. Temperatures will plummet by Tuesday and Wednesday
with highs only in the 20s and lows in the teens.

Rain chances finally increase by Thursday night and Friday as a
storm system slowly approach from the west. Thermal fields will be
border line rain or snow for precipitation type. Therefore we have
a rain or snow worded in our forecast for Thursday night and
beyond. Details regarding precipitation type late next week should
be better understood in time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

IFR conditions are expected to persist overnight along with areas
of drizzle which will reduce visibility down into the low-end MVFR
range. We do expect pockets of LIFR conditions throughout the
night. Winds will start off southerly but will shift to the
northwest late tonight with a passing cold front. Flight
conditions will slowly improve starting Saturday morning but
timing the IFR to MVFR transition is tough at this point given
high variance in the weather models. This transition will be
pinned down in future TAF issuances.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 270853
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
253 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Light rain was increasing in coverage over eastern Oklahoma this
morning, which will shift into southeast Kansas and the Missouri
Ozarks.

We followed the Hi-Res ARW with our precipitation and POP forecast
through today and tonight. This solution suggests placing light
rain further northwest by 12Z, and translating an axis of light
rain eastward across southern Missouri with time.

We think the areal coverage of measurable rain will be high,
however, rainfall amounts will be low. Many locations will only
experience measurements less than one tenth of an inch.

Light rain should linger across south central Missouri this
evening and tonight, eventually exiting the entire region by
Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)

A cooler airmass will have spread across southern Missouri by
Sunday bringing temperatures down into the 20s to start the day.
High pressure will be shifting directly overhead causing winds
to become light and variable under sunny skies.

An extended period of dry weather is expected heading into the
upcoming work week. Fast zonal flow will occur over most of the
nation`s mid section as northerly winds persist at the surface.
This pattern will keep moisture at bay, bringing dry weather.

These northerly winds will also allow some Polar air to move into
the Ozarks. Temperatures will plummet by Tuesday and Wednesday
with highs only in the 20s and lows in the teens.

Rain chances finally increase by Thursday night and Friday as a
storm system slowly approach from the west. Thermal fields will be
border line rain or snow for precipitation type. Therefore we have
a rain or snow worded in our forecast for Thursday night and
beyond. Details regarding precipitation type late next week should
be better understood in time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

IFR conditions are expected to persist overnight along with areas
of drizzle which will reduce visibility down into the low-end MVFR
range. We do expect pockets of LIFR conditions throughout the
night. Winds will start off southerly but will shift to the
northwest late tonight with a passing cold front. Flight
conditions will slowly improve starting Saturday morning but
timing the IFR to MVFR transition is tough at this point given
high variance in the weather models. This transition will be
pinned down in future TAF issuances.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 270853
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
253 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Light rain was increasing in coverage over eastern Oklahoma this
morning, which will shift into southeast Kansas and the Missouri
Ozarks.

We followed the Hi-Res ARW with our precipitation and POP forecast
through today and tonight. This solution suggests placing light
rain further northwest by 12Z, and translating an axis of light
rain eastward across southern Missouri with time.

We think the areal coverage of measurable rain will be high,
however, rainfall amounts will be low. Many locations will only
experience measurements less than one tenth of an inch.

Light rain should linger across south central Missouri this
evening and tonight, eventually exiting the entire region by
Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)

A cooler airmass will have spread across southern Missouri by
Sunday bringing temperatures down into the 20s to start the day.
High pressure will be shifting directly overhead causing winds
to become light and variable under sunny skies.

An extended period of dry weather is expected heading into the
upcoming work week. Fast zonal flow will occur over most of the
nation`s mid section as northerly winds persist at the surface.
This pattern will keep moisture at bay, bringing dry weather.

These northerly winds will also allow some Polar air to move into
the Ozarks. Temperatures will plummet by Tuesday and Wednesday
with highs only in the 20s and lows in the teens.

Rain chances finally increase by Thursday night and Friday as a
storm system slowly approach from the west. Thermal fields will be
border line rain or snow for precipitation type. Therefore we have
a rain or snow worded in our forecast for Thursday night and
beyond. Details regarding precipitation type late next week should
be better understood in time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

IFR conditions are expected to persist overnight along with areas
of drizzle which will reduce visibility down into the low-end MVFR
range. We do expect pockets of LIFR conditions throughout the
night. Winds will start off southerly but will shift to the
northwest late tonight with a passing cold front. Flight
conditions will slowly improve starting Saturday morning but
timing the IFR to MVFR transition is tough at this point given
high variance in the weather models. This transition will be
pinned down in future TAF issuances.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 270853
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
253 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Light rain was increasing in coverage over eastern Oklahoma this
morning, which will shift into southeast Kansas and the Missouri
Ozarks.

We followed the Hi-Res ARW with our precipitation and POP forecast
through today and tonight. This solution suggests placing light
rain further northwest by 12Z, and translating an axis of light
rain eastward across southern Missouri with time.

We think the areal coverage of measurable rain will be high,
however, rainfall amounts will be low. Many locations will only
experience measurements less than one tenth of an inch.

Light rain should linger across south central Missouri this
evening and tonight, eventually exiting the entire region by
Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)

A cooler airmass will have spread across southern Missouri by
Sunday bringing temperatures down into the 20s to start the day.
High pressure will be shifting directly overhead causing winds
to become light and variable under sunny skies.

An extended period of dry weather is expected heading into the
upcoming work week. Fast zonal flow will occur over most of the
nation`s mid section as northerly winds persist at the surface.
This pattern will keep moisture at bay, bringing dry weather.

These northerly winds will also allow some Polar air to move into
the Ozarks. Temperatures will plummet by Tuesday and Wednesday
with highs only in the 20s and lows in the teens.

Rain chances finally increase by Thursday night and Friday as a
storm system slowly approach from the west. Thermal fields will be
border line rain or snow for precipitation type. Therefore we have
a rain or snow worded in our forecast for Thursday night and
beyond. Details regarding precipitation type late next week should
be better understood in time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

IFR conditions are expected to persist overnight along with areas
of drizzle which will reduce visibility down into the low-end MVFR
range. We do expect pockets of LIFR conditions throughout the
night. Winds will start off southerly but will shift to the
northwest late tonight with a passing cold front. Flight
conditions will slowly improve starting Saturday morning but
timing the IFR to MVFR transition is tough at this point given
high variance in the weather models. This transition will be
pinned down in future TAF issuances.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 270552
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1152 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 538 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

We have added drizzle into the forecast for tonight given that
cloud top temperatures are in the -2 to -6 Celsius range across
all but the eastern Missouri Ozarks. Short term models do not cool
cloud top temperatures all that much until perhaps late tonight
across western Missouri. We could still see some shower
development as there is some weak instability present.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 212 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

We had a little more sunshine earlier today before the clouds
finally moved in and that helped warm temperatures into the middle
and some upper 50s. The clouds are back for at least the next 24
hours. Radar is showing some light echoes developing which could
be some patchy drizzle or light showers. We can expected this to
gradually increase and expand later this evening and become
widespread showers after midnight through early tomorrow morning.

The cold front is currently near Kansas City down to just
southeast of Wichita. This front will slowly move southeastward
tonight. It will remain somewhat breezy tonight ahead of the front
and temperatures will remain mild in the middle to upper 40s
tonight ahead of the front. The front will reach roughly the Kansas and
Missouri state line by 3 am and the Highway 65 corridor by 6 am.
Temperatures behind the front will drop into the upper 30s by
tomorrow morning.

Showers will end from west to east Saturday afternoon and exit the
eastern Missouri Ozarks late Saturday evening. Temperatures will
fall most of the day across the area Saturday...eventually
most areas will be in the upper 30s by Saturday afternoon. There
could be a very low chance of a wet snow flake mix in on the back
edge of the exiting showers. If that does happen...not expecting
any impacts and again temperatures will be above freezing in the
upper 30s. Clouds will clear out late Saturday night into early
Sunday morning and temperatures will drop into the middle and
upper 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 212 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Sunshine and a few clouds will be around on Sunday and Monday with
seasonable temperatures. The next weather feature to watch will be
an Arctic front that will arrive Monday night. The front will move
through quietly with mainly cloudy skies. Northerly winds will
pick up and strong cold air advection will take place. There have
been some potential of maybe some flurries possible in a couple of
the models Monday night and early Tuesday with the passage of the
Arctic front.

Temperatures will be very cold Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs will
be sub freezing in the middle 20s to lower 30s and overnight lows
down in the teens. Wind chills will be down in the single digits
to near zero. The weather will be dry through Thursday.

As been previously discussed in earlier forecast
discussions...there will be a strong piece of upper level energy
will move down the western U.S. middle of next week. This system
will become cut off into a slow moving upper level low over the
Four Corner`s Region. With cold air in place most of next
week...this is a system to watch for the end of next week for any
impacts to the region.

The latest model guidance suggest this upper level low pressure
system will move out across the southern U.S. into the Mid
Mississippi River Valley Region by the end of next week. At this
time...will introduce a chance of precipitation Thursday night
into Friday night. Depending on exact track and evolution of this
system will have implications on what type of precip we will see.
Right now will mention the potential for some type of wintry
weather possible end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

IFR conditions are expected to persist overnight along with areas
of drizzle which will reduce visibility down into the low-end MVFR
range. We do expect pockets of LIFR conditions throughout the
night. Winds will start off southerly but will shift to the
northwest late tonight with a passing cold front. Flight
conditions will slowly improve starting Saturday morning but
timing the IFR to MVFR transition is tough at this point given
high variance in the weather models. This transition will be
pinned down in future TAF issuances.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KEAX 270551
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1151 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Adjusted overnight PoPs for radar trends and added drizzle (did that
awhile back). Have also pulled Pops westward into the southwestern
CWA Saturday morning to account for latest HRRR trend towards
developing a secondary area of light precipitation northeastward into
east central KS/west central MO. Satellite imagery shows rapid
increase in upstream mid clouds from southeast NM through western OK.
Some question as to whether or not the 00z NAM`s dry wedge under this
cloud layer is real or not. 00z OKC sounding suggests otherwise. 12z
ECMWF supports the HRRR solution while the 00z GFS does pick up on
some QPF Sat morning making it into our southeastern CWA.
Precipitation type dependent on near surface temperatures and
vertical stratification of same. Tricky. Fortunately QPF should be
minor.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Cold front has reached the KC area this afternoon, though its
southward progress has slowed with a weak surface wave moving
up from the south. This feature is starting to produce some light
showers across west central Missouri, and light precip should
continue to blossom through the late afternoon and evening as low
pressure rides up the boundary. Precip amounts will be light,
generally less than a tenth of an inch, and mostly confined to areas
near and southeast of the I-35 corridor. Temperatures should remain
above freezing across these areas so no wintry precipitation is
expected.

Behind the front, a second area of precipitation developing over
central KS will spread into eastern Nebraska and northern Iowa
overnight where several inches of snow will accumulate, but most of
this snowfall now looks like it will miss our forecast area almost
entirely to the north. While far northwest Missouri may still see
some light snow later this evening, possibly even a bit of sleet, any
accumulations should be very minor and may not accumulate at all with
relatively warm ground temperatures.

Airmass behind the front will be seasonably chilly with highs in the
30s and lows in the teens/20s over the weekend. A stronger front will
swing through the region on Monday and looks to bring some of the
coldest air of the season so far. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday are
forecast to be in the 20s...maybe even teens for some areas...while
lows drop into the single digits. Wind chills could be between zero
and 10 below. Other than perhaps some very light snow accompanying
Monday`s front, the forecast through the middle of next week looks
dry. The pattern then looks to get active by late next week with both
GFS and ECMWF taking a closed upper low out of the Southwest and into
the Plains/Midwest by Friday/Saturday. Will be interesting to watch how
future model runs play out, but given the inherent low-predictability
with such a system, several swings in track and intensity are highly
likely and we are still days away from knowing any details, or even
if such a system will impact our region at all.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Ceilings have finally begun to lower towards low MVFR and upper IFR
range as light rain across eastern KS moves northeastward towards
KSTJ and KMCI. KMKC looks to stay on the edge of the heavier band
with just a quick light shower in the near term. Question is if
disjointed band of rain showers currently across northeast OK will be
able to hold up and move up into eastern KS over the next several
hours. Lower ceilings and a reduction of VISIBILITIES are expected
to move in behind this current rain band given upstream obs. IFR deck
will begin to scatter out by mid morning with MVFR deck looking to
scatter out by 20-21Z. Skies will clear as the upper level system
moves east and surface high pressure moves into the region.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...PMM






000
FXUS63 KEAX 270551
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1151 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Adjusted overnight PoPs for radar trends and added drizzle (did that
awhile back). Have also pulled Pops westward into the southwestern
CWA Saturday morning to account for latest HRRR trend towards
developing a secondary area of light precipitation northeastward into
east central KS/west central MO. Satellite imagery shows rapid
increase in upstream mid clouds from southeast NM through western OK.
Some question as to whether or not the 00z NAM`s dry wedge under this
cloud layer is real or not. 00z OKC sounding suggests otherwise. 12z
ECMWF supports the HRRR solution while the 00z GFS does pick up on
some QPF Sat morning making it into our southeastern CWA.
Precipitation type dependent on near surface temperatures and
vertical stratification of same. Tricky. Fortunately QPF should be
minor.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Cold front has reached the KC area this afternoon, though its
southward progress has slowed with a weak surface wave moving
up from the south. This feature is starting to produce some light
showers across west central Missouri, and light precip should
continue to blossom through the late afternoon and evening as low
pressure rides up the boundary. Precip amounts will be light,
generally less than a tenth of an inch, and mostly confined to areas
near and southeast of the I-35 corridor. Temperatures should remain
above freezing across these areas so no wintry precipitation is
expected.

Behind the front, a second area of precipitation developing over
central KS will spread into eastern Nebraska and northern Iowa
overnight where several inches of snow will accumulate, but most of
this snowfall now looks like it will miss our forecast area almost
entirely to the north. While far northwest Missouri may still see
some light snow later this evening, possibly even a bit of sleet, any
accumulations should be very minor and may not accumulate at all with
relatively warm ground temperatures.

Airmass behind the front will be seasonably chilly with highs in the
30s and lows in the teens/20s over the weekend. A stronger front will
swing through the region on Monday and looks to bring some of the
coldest air of the season so far. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday are
forecast to be in the 20s...maybe even teens for some areas...while
lows drop into the single digits. Wind chills could be between zero
and 10 below. Other than perhaps some very light snow accompanying
Monday`s front, the forecast through the middle of next week looks
dry. The pattern then looks to get active by late next week with both
GFS and ECMWF taking a closed upper low out of the Southwest and into
the Plains/Midwest by Friday/Saturday. Will be interesting to watch how
future model runs play out, but given the inherent low-predictability
with such a system, several swings in track and intensity are highly
likely and we are still days away from knowing any details, or even
if such a system will impact our region at all.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Ceilings have finally begun to lower towards low MVFR and upper IFR
range as light rain across eastern KS moves northeastward towards
KSTJ and KMCI. KMKC looks to stay on the edge of the heavier band
with just a quick light shower in the near term. Question is if
disjointed band of rain showers currently across northeast OK will be
able to hold up and move up into eastern KS over the next several
hours. Lower ceilings and a reduction of VISIBILITIES are expected
to move in behind this current rain band given upstream obs. IFR deck
will begin to scatter out by mid morning with MVFR deck looking to
scatter out by 20-21Z. Skies will clear as the upper level system
moves east and surface high pressure moves into the region.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...PMM







000
FXUS63 KLSX 270459
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1059 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 833 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

Scattered showers developing and streaming northeast from the
Ozarks this evening. Have adjusted POPs based on latest radar
trends. Some indication by the new NAM that rain will come to an
end earlier tomorrow than is currently forecast. Will wait to see
the GFS and if trend is same - may speed up departure of rain
behind the front.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

There is relatively good agreement in the global models in that a
positively tilted mean trough will stay established through at
least the first half of next week from central Canada into the
western CONUS. This will keep a relatively fast zonal flow over
MO/IL through most of the period. A large area of surface high
pressure will move under the zonal flow with no real notable
shortwaves troughs that would offer any precipitation chances at
least through Thursday. Model discrepancies show up by Friday as
the operational GFS is faster than it`s own ensemble mean in
ejecting the main upper low out of the southwest toward the
Midwest. While this is faster than the rest of the models, even
the ECMWF is showing precipitation developing over the area in a
broad warm air advection regime ahead of it bringing the upper low
through the area on Saturday. So with this said will go ahead and
introduce snow with some rain to the forecast on Friday.

Cold front will pass through the area on Monday and temperatures
will fall below normal on Tuesday and Wednesday before returning to
near normal for the start of a new year late in the week.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1043 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014
Area of light rain should exit the KSTL metro area by around 08Z,
with only occaisional sprinkles thereafter through the night. MVFR
ceilings should hold through the night and into the morning on
Saturday at all TAF sites. Ceilings will gradually start to lift
to VFR range by mid morning at KUIN, then at KSTL by mid
afternoon. Cold front will reach KCOU by around 12Z, and KSTL by
around 16Z with winds veering to 280 degrees behind the front.

Specifics for KSTL: Main area of light rain should exit KSTL TAF
site by around 08Z. Only isolated very light showers or sprinkles
are expected for the remainder of the night. MVFR ceilings will
last through the night and into early afternoon on Saturday, then
gradually lift to VFR range before sunset. Ahead of an
approaching cold front, winds will veer to 230 degrees around 14Z,
then to 280 degrees after frontal passage around 16Z.

Browning

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 270459
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1059 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 833 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

Scattered showers developing and streaming northeast from the
Ozarks this evening. Have adjusted POPs based on latest radar
trends. Some indication by the new NAM that rain will come to an
end earlier tomorrow than is currently forecast. Will wait to see
the GFS and if trend is same - may speed up departure of rain
behind the front.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

There is relatively good agreement in the global models in that a
positively tilted mean trough will stay established through at
least the first half of next week from central Canada into the
western CONUS. This will keep a relatively fast zonal flow over
MO/IL through most of the period. A large area of surface high
pressure will move under the zonal flow with no real notable
shortwaves troughs that would offer any precipitation chances at
least through Thursday. Model discrepancies show up by Friday as
the operational GFS is faster than it`s own ensemble mean in
ejecting the main upper low out of the southwest toward the
Midwest. While this is faster than the rest of the models, even
the ECMWF is showing precipitation developing over the area in a
broad warm air advection regime ahead of it bringing the upper low
through the area on Saturday. So with this said will go ahead and
introduce snow with some rain to the forecast on Friday.

Cold front will pass through the area on Monday and temperatures
will fall below normal on Tuesday and Wednesday before returning to
near normal for the start of a new year late in the week.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1043 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014
Area of light rain should exit the KSTL metro area by around 08Z,
with only occaisional sprinkles thereafter through the night. MVFR
ceilings should hold through the night and into the morning on
Saturday at all TAF sites. Ceilings will gradually start to lift
to VFR range by mid morning at KUIN, then at KSTL by mid
afternoon. Cold front will reach KCOU by around 12Z, and KSTL by
around 16Z with winds veering to 280 degrees behind the front.

Specifics for KSTL: Main area of light rain should exit KSTL TAF
site by around 08Z. Only isolated very light showers or sprinkles
are expected for the remainder of the night. MVFR ceilings will
last through the night and into early afternoon on Saturday, then
gradually lift to VFR range before sunset. Ahead of an
approaching cold front, winds will veer to 230 degrees around 14Z,
then to 280 degrees after frontal passage around 16Z.

Browning

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 270401
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1001 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Adjusted overnight PoPs for radar trends and added drizzle (did that
awhile back). Have also pulled Pops westward into the southwestern
CWA Saturday morning to account for latest HRRR trend towards
developing a secondary area of light precipitation northeastward into
east central KS/west central MO. Satellite imagery shows rapid
increase in upstream mid clouds from southeast NM through western OK.
Some question as to whether or not the 00z NAM`s dry wedge under this
cloud layer is real or not. 00z OKC sounding suggests otherwise. 12z
ECMWF supports the HRRR solution while the 00z GFS does pick up on
some QPF Sat morning making it into our southeastern CWA.
Precipitation type dependent on near surface temperatures and
vertical stratification of same. Tricky. Fortunately QPF should be
minor.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Cold front has reached the KC area this afternoon, though its
southward progress has slowed with a weak surface wave moving
up from the south. This feature is starting to produce some light
showers across west central Missouri, and light precip should
continue to blossom through the late afternoon and evening as low
pressure rides up the boundary. Precip amounts will be light,
generally less than a tenth of an inch, and mostly confined to areas
near and southeast of the I-35 corridor. Temperatures should remain
above freezing across these areas so no wintry precipitation is
expected.

Behind the front, a second area of precipitation developing over
central KS will spread into eastern Nebraska and northern Iowa
overnight where several inches of snow will accumulate, but most of
this snowfall now looks like it will miss our forecast area almost
entirely to the north. While far northwest Missouri may still see
some light snow later this evening, possibly even a bit of sleet, any
accumulations should be very minor and may not accumulate at all with
relatively warm ground temperatures.

Airmass behind the front will be seasonably chilly with highs in the
30s and lows in the teens/20s over the weekend. A stronger front will
swing through the region on Monday and looks to bring some of the
coldest air of the season so far. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday are
forecast to be in the 20s...maybe even teens for some areas...while
lows drop into the single digits. Wind chills could be between zero
and 10 below. Other than perhaps some very light snow accompanying
Monday`s front, the forecast through the middle of next week looks
dry. The pattern then looks to get active by late next week with both
GFS and ECMWF taking a closed upper low out of the Southwest and into
the Plains/Midwest by Friday/Saturday. Will be interesting to watch how
future model runs play out, but given the inherent low-predictability
with such a system, several swings in track and intensity are highly
likely and we are still days away from knowing any details, or even
if such a system will impact our region at all.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 543 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Cold front currently extends along a general line from KIRK to KCNU and
continues to slowly move southward. Drizzle has developed along and
south of the front. Ceilings have continued to bounce between MVFR
and VFR but are expected to drop back to MVFR then to IFR by 02-03Z
as lower ceilings and reduced visibility move in behind the front.
Short term models are developing a band of light rain showers to
develop between a 03-07Z time frame. IFR deck will scatter out
tomorrow morning with MVFR deck beginning to scatter out by tomorrow
afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...PMM








000
FXUS63 KEAX 270401
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1001 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Adjusted overnight PoPs for radar trends and added drizzle (did that
awhile back). Have also pulled Pops westward into the southwestern
CWA Saturday morning to account for latest HRRR trend towards
developing a secondary area of light precipitation northeastward into
east central KS/west central MO. Satellite imagery shows rapid
increase in upstream mid clouds from southeast NM through western OK.
Some question as to whether or not the 00z NAM`s dry wedge under this
cloud layer is real or not. 00z OKC sounding suggests otherwise. 12z
ECMWF supports the HRRR solution while the 00z GFS does pick up on
some QPF Sat morning making it into our southeastern CWA.
Precipitation type dependent on near surface temperatures and
vertical stratification of same. Tricky. Fortunately QPF should be
minor.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Cold front has reached the KC area this afternoon, though its
southward progress has slowed with a weak surface wave moving
up from the south. This feature is starting to produce some light
showers across west central Missouri, and light precip should
continue to blossom through the late afternoon and evening as low
pressure rides up the boundary. Precip amounts will be light,
generally less than a tenth of an inch, and mostly confined to areas
near and southeast of the I-35 corridor. Temperatures should remain
above freezing across these areas so no wintry precipitation is
expected.

Behind the front, a second area of precipitation developing over
central KS will spread into eastern Nebraska and northern Iowa
overnight where several inches of snow will accumulate, but most of
this snowfall now looks like it will miss our forecast area almost
entirely to the north. While far northwest Missouri may still see
some light snow later this evening, possibly even a bit of sleet, any
accumulations should be very minor and may not accumulate at all with
relatively warm ground temperatures.

Airmass behind the front will be seasonably chilly with highs in the
30s and lows in the teens/20s over the weekend. A stronger front will
swing through the region on Monday and looks to bring some of the
coldest air of the season so far. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday are
forecast to be in the 20s...maybe even teens for some areas...while
lows drop into the single digits. Wind chills could be between zero
and 10 below. Other than perhaps some very light snow accompanying
Monday`s front, the forecast through the middle of next week looks
dry. The pattern then looks to get active by late next week with both
GFS and ECMWF taking a closed upper low out of the Southwest and into
the Plains/Midwest by Friday/Saturday. Will be interesting to watch how
future model runs play out, but given the inherent low-predictability
with such a system, several swings in track and intensity are highly
likely and we are still days away from knowing any details, or even
if such a system will impact our region at all.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 543 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Cold front currently extends along a general line from KIRK to KCNU and
continues to slowly move southward. Drizzle has developed along and
south of the front. Ceilings have continued to bounce between MVFR
and VFR but are expected to drop back to MVFR then to IFR by 02-03Z
as lower ceilings and reduced visibility move in behind the front.
Short term models are developing a band of light rain showers to
develop between a 03-07Z time frame. IFR deck will scatter out
tomorrow morning with MVFR deck beginning to scatter out by tomorrow
afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...PMM








000
FXUS63 KEAX 270401
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1001 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Adjusted overnight PoPs for radar trends and added drizzle (did that
awhile back). Have also pulled Pops westward into the southwestern
CWA Saturday morning to account for latest HRRR trend towards
developing a secondary area of light precipitation northeastward into
east central KS/west central MO. Satellite imagery shows rapid
increase in upstream mid clouds from southeast NM through western OK.
Some question as to whether or not the 00z NAM`s dry wedge under this
cloud layer is real or not. 00z OKC sounding suggests otherwise. 12z
ECMWF supports the HRRR solution while the 00z GFS does pick up on
some QPF Sat morning making it into our southeastern CWA.
Precipitation type dependent on near surface temperatures and
vertical stratification of same. Tricky. Fortunately QPF should be
minor.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Cold front has reached the KC area this afternoon, though its
southward progress has slowed with a weak surface wave moving
up from the south. This feature is starting to produce some light
showers across west central Missouri, and light precip should
continue to blossom through the late afternoon and evening as low
pressure rides up the boundary. Precip amounts will be light,
generally less than a tenth of an inch, and mostly confined to areas
near and southeast of the I-35 corridor. Temperatures should remain
above freezing across these areas so no wintry precipitation is
expected.

Behind the front, a second area of precipitation developing over
central KS will spread into eastern Nebraska and northern Iowa
overnight where several inches of snow will accumulate, but most of
this snowfall now looks like it will miss our forecast area almost
entirely to the north. While far northwest Missouri may still see
some light snow later this evening, possibly even a bit of sleet, any
accumulations should be very minor and may not accumulate at all with
relatively warm ground temperatures.

Airmass behind the front will be seasonably chilly with highs in the
30s and lows in the teens/20s over the weekend. A stronger front will
swing through the region on Monday and looks to bring some of the
coldest air of the season so far. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday are
forecast to be in the 20s...maybe even teens for some areas...while
lows drop into the single digits. Wind chills could be between zero
and 10 below. Other than perhaps some very light snow accompanying
Monday`s front, the forecast through the middle of next week looks
dry. The pattern then looks to get active by late next week with both
GFS and ECMWF taking a closed upper low out of the Southwest and into
the Plains/Midwest by Friday/Saturday. Will be interesting to watch how
future model runs play out, but given the inherent low-predictability
with such a system, several swings in track and intensity are highly
likely and we are still days away from knowing any details, or even
if such a system will impact our region at all.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 543 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Cold front currently extends along a general line from KIRK to KCNU and
continues to slowly move southward. Drizzle has developed along and
south of the front. Ceilings have continued to bounce between MVFR
and VFR but are expected to drop back to MVFR then to IFR by 02-03Z
as lower ceilings and reduced visibility move in behind the front.
Short term models are developing a band of light rain showers to
develop between a 03-07Z time frame. IFR deck will scatter out
tomorrow morning with MVFR deck beginning to scatter out by tomorrow
afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...PMM








000
FXUS63 KEAX 270401
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1001 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Adjusted overnight PoPs for radar trends and added drizzle (did that
awhile back). Have also pulled Pops westward into the southwestern
CWA Saturday morning to account for latest HRRR trend towards
developing a secondary area of light precipitation northeastward into
east central KS/west central MO. Satellite imagery shows rapid
increase in upstream mid clouds from southeast NM through western OK.
Some question as to whether or not the 00z NAM`s dry wedge under this
cloud layer is real or not. 00z OKC sounding suggests otherwise. 12z
ECMWF supports the HRRR solution while the 00z GFS does pick up on
some QPF Sat morning making it into our southeastern CWA.
Precipitation type dependent on near surface temperatures and
vertical stratification of same. Tricky. Fortunately QPF should be
minor.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Cold front has reached the KC area this afternoon, though its
southward progress has slowed with a weak surface wave moving
up from the south. This feature is starting to produce some light
showers across west central Missouri, and light precip should
continue to blossom through the late afternoon and evening as low
pressure rides up the boundary. Precip amounts will be light,
generally less than a tenth of an inch, and mostly confined to areas
near and southeast of the I-35 corridor. Temperatures should remain
above freezing across these areas so no wintry precipitation is
expected.

Behind the front, a second area of precipitation developing over
central KS will spread into eastern Nebraska and northern Iowa
overnight where several inches of snow will accumulate, but most of
this snowfall now looks like it will miss our forecast area almost
entirely to the north. While far northwest Missouri may still see
some light snow later this evening, possibly even a bit of sleet, any
accumulations should be very minor and may not accumulate at all with
relatively warm ground temperatures.

Airmass behind the front will be seasonably chilly with highs in the
30s and lows in the teens/20s over the weekend. A stronger front will
swing through the region on Monday and looks to bring some of the
coldest air of the season so far. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday are
forecast to be in the 20s...maybe even teens for some areas...while
lows drop into the single digits. Wind chills could be between zero
and 10 below. Other than perhaps some very light snow accompanying
Monday`s front, the forecast through the middle of next week looks
dry. The pattern then looks to get active by late next week with both
GFS and ECMWF taking a closed upper low out of the Southwest and into
the Plains/Midwest by Friday/Saturday. Will be interesting to watch how
future model runs play out, but given the inherent low-predictability
with such a system, several swings in track and intensity are highly
likely and we are still days away from knowing any details, or even
if such a system will impact our region at all.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 543 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Cold front currently extends along a general line from KIRK to KCNU and
continues to slowly move southward. Drizzle has developed along and
south of the front. Ceilings have continued to bounce between MVFR
and VFR but are expected to drop back to MVFR then to IFR by 02-03Z
as lower ceilings and reduced visibility move in behind the front.
Short term models are developing a band of light rain showers to
develop between a 03-07Z time frame. IFR deck will scatter out
tomorrow morning with MVFR deck beginning to scatter out by tomorrow
afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...PMM








000
FXUS63 KLSX 270235
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
835 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 833 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

Scattered showers developing and streaming northeast from the
Ozarks this evening. Have adjusted POPs based on latest radar
trends. Some indication by the new NAM that rain will come to an
end earlier tomorrow than is currently forecast. Will wait to see
the GFS and if trend is same - may speed up departure of rain
behind the front.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

There is relatively good agreement in the global models in that a
positively tilted mean trough will stay established through at
least the first half of next week from central Canada into the
western CONUS. This will keep a relatively fast zonal flow over
MO/IL through most of the period. A large area of surface high
pressure will move under the zonal flow with no real notable
shortwaves troughs that would offer any precipitation chances at
least through Thursday. Model discrepancies show up by Friday as
the operational GFS is faster than it`s own ensemble mean in
ejecting the main upper low out of the southwest toward the
Midwest. While this is faster than the rest of the models, even
the ECMWF is showing precipitation developing over the area in a
broad warm air advection regime ahead of it bringing the upper low
through the area on Saturday. So with this said will go ahead and
introduce snow with some rain to the forecast on Friday.

Cold front will pass through the area on Monday and temperatures
will fall below normal on Tuesday and Wednesday before returning to
near normal for the start of a new year late in the week.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 500 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014
Wave development along a cold front across far western Missouri
has slowed its eastward movement, so think MVFR cigs will be
delayed for several hours, reaching KCOU around 06Z and KSTL
around 09Z. There may be a few scattered very light showers or
sprinkles before the surface cold front passes. The front will reach
KCOU around 12Z and KSTL by 16Z. MVFR ceilings will continue for
several hours after frontal passage, but MVFR ceilings will
gradually lift to VFR during the afternoon.


Specifics for KSTL: VFR cigs will continue through at least 06Z,
with MVFR cigs reaching KSTL around 09Z. There may be a few
scattered very light showers or sprinkles before the surface cold
front passes. The front will reach KSTL by 16Z. MVFR ceilings
will continue for several hours after frontal passage, but MVFR
ceilings will gradually lift to VFR during the afternoon. MVFR
cigs should last well into Saturday evening.

Browning (WFO LSX)/MAB (EAX CWSU)

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 270235
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
835 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 833 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

Scattered showers developing and streaming northeast from the
Ozarks this evening. Have adjusted POPs based on latest radar
trends. Some indication by the new NAM that rain will come to an
end earlier tomorrow than is currently forecast. Will wait to see
the GFS and if trend is same - may speed up departure of rain
behind the front.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

There is relatively good agreement in the global models in that a
positively tilted mean trough will stay established through at
least the first half of next week from central Canada into the
western CONUS. This will keep a relatively fast zonal flow over
MO/IL through most of the period. A large area of surface high
pressure will move under the zonal flow with no real notable
shortwaves troughs that would offer any precipitation chances at
least through Thursday. Model discrepancies show up by Friday as
the operational GFS is faster than it`s own ensemble mean in
ejecting the main upper low out of the southwest toward the
Midwest. While this is faster than the rest of the models, even
the ECMWF is showing precipitation developing over the area in a
broad warm air advection regime ahead of it bringing the upper low
through the area on Saturday. So with this said will go ahead and
introduce snow with some rain to the forecast on Friday.

Cold front will pass through the area on Monday and temperatures
will fall below normal on Tuesday and Wednesday before returning to
near normal for the start of a new year late in the week.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 500 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014
Wave development along a cold front across far western Missouri
has slowed its eastward movement, so think MVFR cigs will be
delayed for several hours, reaching KCOU around 06Z and KSTL
around 09Z. There may be a few scattered very light showers or
sprinkles before the surface cold front passes. The front will reach
KCOU around 12Z and KSTL by 16Z. MVFR ceilings will continue for
several hours after frontal passage, but MVFR ceilings will
gradually lift to VFR during the afternoon.


Specifics for KSTL: VFR cigs will continue through at least 06Z,
with MVFR cigs reaching KSTL around 09Z. There may be a few
scattered very light showers or sprinkles before the surface cold
front passes. The front will reach KSTL by 16Z. MVFR ceilings
will continue for several hours after frontal passage, but MVFR
ceilings will gradually lift to VFR during the afternoon. MVFR
cigs should last well into Saturday evening.

Browning (WFO LSX)/MAB (EAX CWSU)

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 270235
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
835 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 833 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

Scattered showers developing and streaming northeast from the
Ozarks this evening. Have adjusted POPs based on latest radar
trends. Some indication by the new NAM that rain will come to an
end earlier tomorrow than is currently forecast. Will wait to see
the GFS and if trend is same - may speed up departure of rain
behind the front.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

There is relatively good agreement in the global models in that a
positively tilted mean trough will stay established through at
least the first half of next week from central Canada into the
western CONUS. This will keep a relatively fast zonal flow over
MO/IL through most of the period. A large area of surface high
pressure will move under the zonal flow with no real notable
shortwaves troughs that would offer any precipitation chances at
least through Thursday. Model discrepancies show up by Friday as
the operational GFS is faster than it`s own ensemble mean in
ejecting the main upper low out of the southwest toward the
Midwest. While this is faster than the rest of the models, even
the ECMWF is showing precipitation developing over the area in a
broad warm air advection regime ahead of it bringing the upper low
through the area on Saturday. So with this said will go ahead and
introduce snow with some rain to the forecast on Friday.

Cold front will pass through the area on Monday and temperatures
will fall below normal on Tuesday and Wednesday before returning to
near normal for the start of a new year late in the week.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 500 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014
Wave development along a cold front across far western Missouri
has slowed its eastward movement, so think MVFR cigs will be
delayed for several hours, reaching KCOU around 06Z and KSTL
around 09Z. There may be a few scattered very light showers or
sprinkles before the surface cold front passes. The front will reach
KCOU around 12Z and KSTL by 16Z. MVFR ceilings will continue for
several hours after frontal passage, but MVFR ceilings will
gradually lift to VFR during the afternoon.


Specifics for KSTL: VFR cigs will continue through at least 06Z,
with MVFR cigs reaching KSTL around 09Z. There may be a few
scattered very light showers or sprinkles before the surface cold
front passes. The front will reach KSTL by 16Z. MVFR ceilings
will continue for several hours after frontal passage, but MVFR
ceilings will gradually lift to VFR during the afternoon. MVFR
cigs should last well into Saturday evening.

Browning (WFO LSX)/MAB (EAX CWSU)

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 270004
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
604 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Cold front has reached the KC area this afternoon, though its
southward progress has slowed with a weak surface wave moving
up from the south. This feature is starting to produce some light
showers across west central Missouri, and light precip should
continue to blossom through the late afternoon and evening as low
pressure rides up the boundary. Precip amounts will be light,
generally less than a tenth of an inch, and mostly confined to areas
near and southeast of the I-35 corridor. Temperatures should remain
above freezing across these areas so no wintry precipitation is
expected.

Behind the front, a second area of precipitation developing over
central KS will spread into eastern Nebraska and northern Iowa
overnight where several inches of snow will accumulate, but most of
this snowfall now looks like it will miss our forecast area almost
entirely to the north. While far northwest Missouri may still see
some light snow later this evening, possibly even a bit of sleet, any
accumulations should be very minor and may not accumulate at all with
relatively warm ground temperatures.

Airmass behind the front will be seasonably chilly with highs in the
30s and lows in the teens/20s over the weekend. A stronger front will
swing through the region on Monday and looks to bring some of the
coldest air of the season so far. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday are
forecast to be in the 20s...maybe even teens for some areas...while
lows drop into the single digits. Wind chills could be between zero
and 10 below. Other than perhaps some very light snow accompanying
Monday`s front, the forecast through the middle of next week looks
dry. The pattern then looks to get active by late next week with both
GFS and ECMWF taking a closed upper low out of the Southwest and into
the Plains/Midwest by Friday/Saturday. Will be interesting to watch how
future model runs play out, but given the inherent low-predictability
with such a system, several swings in track and intensity are highly
likely and we are still days away from knowing any details, or even
if such a system will impact our region at all.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 543 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Cold front currently extends along a general line from KIRK to KCNU and
continues to slowly move southward. Drizzle has developed along and
south of the front. Ceilings have continued to bounce between MVFR
and VFR but are expected to drop back to MVFR then to IFR by 02-03Z
as lower ceilings and reduced visibility move in behind the front.
Short term models are developing a band of light rain showers to
develop between a 03-07Z time frame. IFR deck will scatter out
tomorrow morning with MVFR deck beginning to scatter out by tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...PMM






000
FXUS63 KEAX 270004
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
604 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Cold front has reached the KC area this afternoon, though its
southward progress has slowed with a weak surface wave moving
up from the south. This feature is starting to produce some light
showers across west central Missouri, and light precip should
continue to blossom through the late afternoon and evening as low
pressure rides up the boundary. Precip amounts will be light,
generally less than a tenth of an inch, and mostly confined to areas
near and southeast of the I-35 corridor. Temperatures should remain
above freezing across these areas so no wintry precipitation is
expected.

Behind the front, a second area of precipitation developing over
central KS will spread into eastern Nebraska and northern Iowa
overnight where several inches of snow will accumulate, but most of
this snowfall now looks like it will miss our forecast area almost
entirely to the north. While far northwest Missouri may still see
some light snow later this evening, possibly even a bit of sleet, any
accumulations should be very minor and may not accumulate at all with
relatively warm ground temperatures.

Airmass behind the front will be seasonably chilly with highs in the
30s and lows in the teens/20s over the weekend. A stronger front will
swing through the region on Monday and looks to bring some of the
coldest air of the season so far. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday are
forecast to be in the 20s...maybe even teens for some areas...while
lows drop into the single digits. Wind chills could be between zero
and 10 below. Other than perhaps some very light snow accompanying
Monday`s front, the forecast through the middle of next week looks
dry. The pattern then looks to get active by late next week with both
GFS and ECMWF taking a closed upper low out of the Southwest and into
the Plains/Midwest by Friday/Saturday. Will be interesting to watch how
future model runs play out, but given the inherent low-predictability
with such a system, several swings in track and intensity are highly
likely and we are still days away from knowing any details, or even
if such a system will impact our region at all.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 543 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Cold front currently extends along a general line from KIRK to KCNU and
continues to slowly move southward. Drizzle has developed along and
south of the front. Ceilings have continued to bounce between MVFR
and VFR but are expected to drop back to MVFR then to IFR by 02-03Z
as lower ceilings and reduced visibility move in behind the front.
Short term models are developing a band of light rain showers to
develop between a 03-07Z time frame. IFR deck will scatter out
tomorrow morning with MVFR deck beginning to scatter out by tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...PMM







000
FXUS63 KSGF 262348
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
548 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

...Update to Aviation and to Include Drizzle Tonight...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 538 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

We have added drizzle into the forecast for tonight given that
cloud top temperatures are in the -2 to -6 Celsius range across
all but the eastern Missouri Ozarks. Short term models do not cool
cloud top temperatures all that much until perhaps late tonight
across western Missouri. We could still see some shower
development as there is some weak instability present.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 212 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

We had a little more sunshine earlier today before the clouds
finally moved in and that helped warm temperatures into the middle
and some upper 50s. The clouds are back for at least the next 24
hours. Radar is showing some light echoes developing which could
be some patchy drizzle or light showers. We can expected this to
gradually increase and expand later this evening and become
widespread showers after midnight through early tomorrow morning.

The cold front is currently near Kansas City down to just
southeast of Wichita. This front will slowly move southeastward
tonight. It will remain somewhat breezy tonight ahead of the front
and temperatures will remain mild in the middle to upper 40s
tonight ahead of the front. The front will reach roughly the Kansas and
Missouri state line by 3 am and the Highway 65 corridor by 6 am.
Temperatures behind the front will drop into the upper 30s by
tomorrow morning.

Showers will end from west to east Saturday afternoon and exit the
eastern Missouri Ozarks late Saturday evening. Temperatures will
fall most of the day across the area Saturday...eventually
most areas will be in the upper 30s by Saturday afternoon. There
could be a very low chance of a wet snow flake mix in on the back
edge of the exiting showers. If that does happen...not expecting
any impacts and again temperatures will be above freezing in the
upper 30s. Clouds will clear out late Saturday night into early
Sunday morning and temperatures will drop into the middle and
upper 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 212 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Sunshine and a few clouds will be around on Sunday and Monday with
seasonable temperatures. The next weather feature to watch will be
an Arctic front that will arrive Monday night. The front will move
through quietly with mainly cloudy skies. Northerly winds will
pick up and strong cold air advection will take place. There have
been some potential of maybe some flurries possible in a couple of
the models Monday night and early Tuesday with the passage of the
Arctic front.

Temperatures will be very cold Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs will
be sub freezing in the middle 20s to lower 30s and overnight lows
down in the teens. Wind chills will be down in the single digits
to near zero. The weather will be dry through Thursday.

As been previously discussed in earlier forecast
discussions...there will be a strong piece of upper level energy
will move down the western U.S. middle of next week. This system
will become cut off into a slow moving upper level low over the
Four Corner`s Region. With cold air in place most of next
week...this is a system to watch for the end of next week for any
impacts to the region.

The latest model guidance suggest this upper level low pressure
system will move out across the southern U.S. into the Mid
Mississippi River Valley Region by the end of next week. At this
time...will introduce a chance of precipitation Thursday night
into Friday night. Depending on exact track and evolution of this
system will have implications on what type of precip we will see.
Right now will mention the potential for some type of wintry
weather possible end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 538 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Ceilings will continue to lower through the MVFR category and into
the IFR category this evening. We will also see areas of drizzle
and rain showers which will drop visibilities down into the lower
end MVFR range. There is the potential for LIFR conditions
starting later this evening at Branson, but confidence is too low
at this time to include in the TAF. The other concern for this
evening will be low level wind shear conditions at Springfield and
Branson.

A cold front will then push through the area late tonight and will
shift winds to the west and then northwest. IFR conditions and a
drizzle/rain mix will continue behind the front into early
Saturday morning. Flight conditions will then improve from later
Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 262348
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
548 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

...Update to Aviation and to Include Drizzle Tonight...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 538 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

We have added drizzle into the forecast for tonight given that
cloud top temperatures are in the -2 to -6 Celsius range across
all but the eastern Missouri Ozarks. Short term models do not cool
cloud top temperatures all that much until perhaps late tonight
across western Missouri. We could still see some shower
development as there is some weak instability present.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 212 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

We had a little more sunshine earlier today before the clouds
finally moved in and that helped warm temperatures into the middle
and some upper 50s. The clouds are back for at least the next 24
hours. Radar is showing some light echoes developing which could
be some patchy drizzle or light showers. We can expected this to
gradually increase and expand later this evening and become
widespread showers after midnight through early tomorrow morning.

The cold front is currently near Kansas City down to just
southeast of Wichita. This front will slowly move southeastward
tonight. It will remain somewhat breezy tonight ahead of the front
and temperatures will remain mild in the middle to upper 40s
tonight ahead of the front. The front will reach roughly the Kansas and
Missouri state line by 3 am and the Highway 65 corridor by 6 am.
Temperatures behind the front will drop into the upper 30s by
tomorrow morning.

Showers will end from west to east Saturday afternoon and exit the
eastern Missouri Ozarks late Saturday evening. Temperatures will
fall most of the day across the area Saturday...eventually
most areas will be in the upper 30s by Saturday afternoon. There
could be a very low chance of a wet snow flake mix in on the back
edge of the exiting showers. If that does happen...not expecting
any impacts and again temperatures will be above freezing in the
upper 30s. Clouds will clear out late Saturday night into early
Sunday morning and temperatures will drop into the middle and
upper 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 212 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Sunshine and a few clouds will be around on Sunday and Monday with
seasonable temperatures. The next weather feature to watch will be
an Arctic front that will arrive Monday night. The front will move
through quietly with mainly cloudy skies. Northerly winds will
pick up and strong cold air advection will take place. There have
been some potential of maybe some flurries possible in a couple of
the models Monday night and early Tuesday with the passage of the
Arctic front.

Temperatures will be very cold Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs will
be sub freezing in the middle 20s to lower 30s and overnight lows
down in the teens. Wind chills will be down in the single digits
to near zero. The weather will be dry through Thursday.

As been previously discussed in earlier forecast
discussions...there will be a strong piece of upper level energy
will move down the western U.S. middle of next week. This system
will become cut off into a slow moving upper level low over the
Four Corner`s Region. With cold air in place most of next
week...this is a system to watch for the end of next week for any
impacts to the region.

The latest model guidance suggest this upper level low pressure
system will move out across the southern U.S. into the Mid
Mississippi River Valley Region by the end of next week. At this
time...will introduce a chance of precipitation Thursday night
into Friday night. Depending on exact track and evolution of this
system will have implications on what type of precip we will see.
Right now will mention the potential for some type of wintry
weather possible end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 538 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Ceilings will continue to lower through the MVFR category and into
the IFR category this evening. We will also see areas of drizzle
and rain showers which will drop visibilities down into the lower
end MVFR range. There is the potential for LIFR conditions
starting later this evening at Branson, but confidence is too low
at this time to include in the TAF. The other concern for this
evening will be low level wind shear conditions at Springfield and
Branson.

A cold front will then push through the area late tonight and will
shift winds to the west and then northwest. IFR conditions and a
drizzle/rain mix will continue behind the front into early
Saturday morning. Flight conditions will then improve from later
Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KLSX 262313
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
513 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Sunday Night)
Issued at 329 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

Low pressure will develop along the cold front currently over
northwest Missouri in response to shortwave trough ejecting out of
the base of mean trough over the western CONUS tonight.  This low
will move northeast into the Great Lakes by tomorrow at the same
time that the shortwave moves into the the Upper Midwest.  NAM and
GFS show that the cold front will enter the northwest part of the
CWA late tonight and exit the CWA by tomorrow afternoon.  While
precipitation is currently limited on radar over the central CONUS,
expect rain chances to increase rapidly this evening as low level
moisture convergence increases ahead of shortwave trough. Latest
runs of the HRRR as well as the NSSL-WRF have depicted rain
developing throughout the evening hours with it becoming more
concentrated over southeast Missouri into southern Illinois after
midnight. Have continued going forecast trend of increasing
chance PoPs through the evening hours and with likely PoPs over
the southeast half of the CWA after midnight. Then concentrated
likely PoPs tomorrow morning over the southeast half of the CWA
when the GFS depicts increasing mid level frontogenesis associated
with the shortwave trough. Kept a chance of rain or snow going
over the far southeast part of the CWA tomorrow evening before
drier air and subsidence works into the area on Saturday evening.
Sunday and Sunday evening still looks dry at this point.

Kept with falling temperatures will frontal passage tomorrow.
Otherwise MOS guidance are in decent agreement and looks
reasonable.

Britt

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

There is relatively good agreement in the global models in that a
positively tilted mean trough will stay established through at
least the first half of next week from central Canada into the
western CONUS. This will keep a relatively fast zonal flow over
MO/IL through most of the period. A large area of surface high
pressure will move under the zonal flow with no real notable
shortwaves troughs that would offer any precipitation chances at
least through Thursday. Model discrepancies show up by Friday as
the operational GFS is faster than it`s own ensemble mean in
ejecting the main upper low out of the southwest toward the
Midwest. While this is faster than the rest of the models, even
the ECMWF is showing precipitation developing over the area in a
broad warm air advection regime ahead of it bringing the upper low
through the area on Saturday. So with this said will go ahead and
introduce snow with some rain to the forecast on Friday.

Cold front will pass through the area on Monday and temperatures
will fall below normal on Tuesday and Wednesday before returning to
near normal for the start of a new year late in the week.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 500 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014
Wave development along a cold front across far western Missouri
has slowed its eastward movement, so think MVFR cigs will be
delayed for several hours, reaching KCOU around 06Z and KSTL
around 09Z. There may be a few scattered very light showers or
sprinkles before the surface cold front passes. The front will reach
KCOU around 12Z and KSTL by 16Z. MVFR ceilings will continue for
several hours after frontal passage, but MVFR ceilings will
gradually lift to VFR during the afternoon.


Specifics for KSTL: VFR cigs will continue through at least 06Z,
with MVFR cigs reaching KSTL around 09Z. There may be a few
scattered very light showers or sprinkles before the surface cold
front passes. The front will reach KSTL by 16Z. MVFR ceilings
will continue for several hours after frontal passage, but MVFR
ceilings will gradually lift to VFR during the afternoon. MVFR
cigs should last well into Saturday evening.

Browning (WFO LSX)/MAB (EAX CWSU)

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 262313
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
513 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Sunday Night)
Issued at 329 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

Low pressure will develop along the cold front currently over
northwest Missouri in response to shortwave trough ejecting out of
the base of mean trough over the western CONUS tonight.  This low
will move northeast into the Great Lakes by tomorrow at the same
time that the shortwave moves into the the Upper Midwest.  NAM and
GFS show that the cold front will enter the northwest part of the
CWA late tonight and exit the CWA by tomorrow afternoon.  While
precipitation is currently limited on radar over the central CONUS,
expect rain chances to increase rapidly this evening as low level
moisture convergence increases ahead of shortwave trough. Latest
runs of the HRRR as well as the NSSL-WRF have depicted rain
developing throughout the evening hours with it becoming more
concentrated over southeast Missouri into southern Illinois after
midnight. Have continued going forecast trend of increasing
chance PoPs through the evening hours and with likely PoPs over
the southeast half of the CWA after midnight. Then concentrated
likely PoPs tomorrow morning over the southeast half of the CWA
when the GFS depicts increasing mid level frontogenesis associated
with the shortwave trough. Kept a chance of rain or snow going
over the far southeast part of the CWA tomorrow evening before
drier air and subsidence works into the area on Saturday evening.
Sunday and Sunday evening still looks dry at this point.

Kept with falling temperatures will frontal passage tomorrow.
Otherwise MOS guidance are in decent agreement and looks
reasonable.

Britt

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

There is relatively good agreement in the global models in that a
positively tilted mean trough will stay established through at
least the first half of next week from central Canada into the
western CONUS. This will keep a relatively fast zonal flow over
MO/IL through most of the period. A large area of surface high
pressure will move under the zonal flow with no real notable
shortwaves troughs that would offer any precipitation chances at
least through Thursday. Model discrepancies show up by Friday as
the operational GFS is faster than it`s own ensemble mean in
ejecting the main upper low out of the southwest toward the
Midwest. While this is faster than the rest of the models, even
the ECMWF is showing precipitation developing over the area in a
broad warm air advection regime ahead of it bringing the upper low
through the area on Saturday. So with this said will go ahead and
introduce snow with some rain to the forecast on Friday.

Cold front will pass through the area on Monday and temperatures
will fall below normal on Tuesday and Wednesday before returning to
near normal for the start of a new year late in the week.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 500 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014
Wave development along a cold front across far western Missouri
has slowed its eastward movement, so think MVFR cigs will be
delayed for several hours, reaching KCOU around 06Z and KSTL
around 09Z. There may be a few scattered very light showers or
sprinkles before the surface cold front passes. The front will reach
KCOU around 12Z and KSTL by 16Z. MVFR ceilings will continue for
several hours after frontal passage, but MVFR ceilings will
gradually lift to VFR during the afternoon.


Specifics for KSTL: VFR cigs will continue through at least 06Z,
with MVFR cigs reaching KSTL around 09Z. There may be a few
scattered very light showers or sprinkles before the surface cold
front passes. The front will reach KSTL by 16Z. MVFR ceilings
will continue for several hours after frontal passage, but MVFR
ceilings will gradually lift to VFR during the afternoon. MVFR
cigs should last well into Saturday evening.

Browning (WFO LSX)/MAB (EAX CWSU)

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 262313
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
513 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Sunday Night)
Issued at 329 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

Low pressure will develop along the cold front currently over
northwest Missouri in response to shortwave trough ejecting out of
the base of mean trough over the western CONUS tonight.  This low
will move northeast into the Great Lakes by tomorrow at the same
time that the shortwave moves into the the Upper Midwest.  NAM and
GFS show that the cold front will enter the northwest part of the
CWA late tonight and exit the CWA by tomorrow afternoon.  While
precipitation is currently limited on radar over the central CONUS,
expect rain chances to increase rapidly this evening as low level
moisture convergence increases ahead of shortwave trough. Latest
runs of the HRRR as well as the NSSL-WRF have depicted rain
developing throughout the evening hours with it becoming more
concentrated over southeast Missouri into southern Illinois after
midnight. Have continued going forecast trend of increasing
chance PoPs through the evening hours and with likely PoPs over
the southeast half of the CWA after midnight. Then concentrated
likely PoPs tomorrow morning over the southeast half of the CWA
when the GFS depicts increasing mid level frontogenesis associated
with the shortwave trough. Kept a chance of rain or snow going
over the far southeast part of the CWA tomorrow evening before
drier air and subsidence works into the area on Saturday evening.
Sunday and Sunday evening still looks dry at this point.

Kept with falling temperatures will frontal passage tomorrow.
Otherwise MOS guidance are in decent agreement and looks
reasonable.

Britt

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

There is relatively good agreement in the global models in that a
positively tilted mean trough will stay established through at
least the first half of next week from central Canada into the
western CONUS. This will keep a relatively fast zonal flow over
MO/IL through most of the period. A large area of surface high
pressure will move under the zonal flow with no real notable
shortwaves troughs that would offer any precipitation chances at
least through Thursday. Model discrepancies show up by Friday as
the operational GFS is faster than it`s own ensemble mean in
ejecting the main upper low out of the southwest toward the
Midwest. While this is faster than the rest of the models, even
the ECMWF is showing precipitation developing over the area in a
broad warm air advection regime ahead of it bringing the upper low
through the area on Saturday. So with this said will go ahead and
introduce snow with some rain to the forecast on Friday.

Cold front will pass through the area on Monday and temperatures
will fall below normal on Tuesday and Wednesday before returning to
near normal for the start of a new year late in the week.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 500 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014
Wave development along a cold front across far western Missouri
has slowed its eastward movement, so think MVFR cigs will be
delayed for several hours, reaching KCOU around 06Z and KSTL
around 09Z. There may be a few scattered very light showers or
sprinkles before the surface cold front passes. The front will reach
KCOU around 12Z and KSTL by 16Z. MVFR ceilings will continue for
several hours after frontal passage, but MVFR ceilings will
gradually lift to VFR during the afternoon.


Specifics for KSTL: VFR cigs will continue through at least 06Z,
with MVFR cigs reaching KSTL around 09Z. There may be a few
scattered very light showers or sprinkles before the surface cold
front passes. The front will reach KSTL by 16Z. MVFR ceilings
will continue for several hours after frontal passage, but MVFR
ceilings will gradually lift to VFR during the afternoon. MVFR
cigs should last well into Saturday evening.

Browning (WFO LSX)/MAB (EAX CWSU)

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 262313
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
513 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Sunday Night)
Issued at 329 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

Low pressure will develop along the cold front currently over
northwest Missouri in response to shortwave trough ejecting out of
the base of mean trough over the western CONUS tonight.  This low
will move northeast into the Great Lakes by tomorrow at the same
time that the shortwave moves into the the Upper Midwest.  NAM and
GFS show that the cold front will enter the northwest part of the
CWA late tonight and exit the CWA by tomorrow afternoon.  While
precipitation is currently limited on radar over the central CONUS,
expect rain chances to increase rapidly this evening as low level
moisture convergence increases ahead of shortwave trough. Latest
runs of the HRRR as well as the NSSL-WRF have depicted rain
developing throughout the evening hours with it becoming more
concentrated over southeast Missouri into southern Illinois after
midnight. Have continued going forecast trend of increasing
chance PoPs through the evening hours and with likely PoPs over
the southeast half of the CWA after midnight. Then concentrated
likely PoPs tomorrow morning over the southeast half of the CWA
when the GFS depicts increasing mid level frontogenesis associated
with the shortwave trough. Kept a chance of rain or snow going
over the far southeast part of the CWA tomorrow evening before
drier air and subsidence works into the area on Saturday evening.
Sunday and Sunday evening still looks dry at this point.

Kept with falling temperatures will frontal passage tomorrow.
Otherwise MOS guidance are in decent agreement and looks
reasonable.

Britt

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

There is relatively good agreement in the global models in that a
positively tilted mean trough will stay established through at
least the first half of next week from central Canada into the
western CONUS. This will keep a relatively fast zonal flow over
MO/IL through most of the period. A large area of surface high
pressure will move under the zonal flow with no real notable
shortwaves troughs that would offer any precipitation chances at
least through Thursday. Model discrepancies show up by Friday as
the operational GFS is faster than it`s own ensemble mean in
ejecting the main upper low out of the southwest toward the
Midwest. While this is faster than the rest of the models, even
the ECMWF is showing precipitation developing over the area in a
broad warm air advection regime ahead of it bringing the upper low
through the area on Saturday. So with this said will go ahead and
introduce snow with some rain to the forecast on Friday.

Cold front will pass through the area on Monday and temperatures
will fall below normal on Tuesday and Wednesday before returning to
near normal for the start of a new year late in the week.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 500 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014
Wave development along a cold front across far western Missouri
has slowed its eastward movement, so think MVFR cigs will be
delayed for several hours, reaching KCOU around 06Z and KSTL
around 09Z. There may be a few scattered very light showers or
sprinkles before the surface cold front passes. The front will reach
KCOU around 12Z and KSTL by 16Z. MVFR ceilings will continue for
several hours after frontal passage, but MVFR ceilings will
gradually lift to VFR during the afternoon.


Specifics for KSTL: VFR cigs will continue through at least 06Z,
with MVFR cigs reaching KSTL around 09Z. There may be a few
scattered very light showers or sprinkles before the surface cold
front passes. The front will reach KSTL by 16Z. MVFR ceilings
will continue for several hours after frontal passage, but MVFR
ceilings will gradually lift to VFR during the afternoon. MVFR
cigs should last well into Saturday evening.

Browning (WFO LSX)/MAB (EAX CWSU)

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 262139
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
339 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Sunday Night)
Issued at 329 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

Low pressure will develop along the cold front currently over
northwest Missouri in response to shortwave trough ejecting out of
the base of mean trough over the western CONUS tonight.  This low
will move northeast into the Great Lakes by tomorrow at the same
time that the shortwave moves into the the Upper Midwest.  NAM and
GFS show that the cold front will enter the northwest part of the
CWA late tonight and exit the CWA by tomorrow afternoon.  While
precipitation is currently limited on radar over the central CONUS,
expect rain chances to increase rapidly this evening as low level
moisture convergence increases ahead of shortwave trough. Latest
runs of the HRRR as well as the NSSL-WRF have depicted rain
developing throughout the evening hours with it becoming more
concentrated over southeast Missouri into southern Illinois after
midnight. Have continued going forecast trend of increasing
chance PoPs through the evening hours and with likely PoPs over
the southeast half of the CWA after midnight. Then concentrated
likely PoPs tomorrow morning over the southeast half of the CWA
when the GFS depicts increasing mid level frontogenesis associated
with the shortwave trough. Kept a chance of rain or snow going
over the far southeast part of the CWA tomorrow evening before
drier air and subsidence works into the area on Saturday evening.
Sunday and Sunday evening still looks dry at this point.

Kept with falling temperatures will frontal passage tomorrow.
Otherwise MOS guidance are in decent agreement and looks
reasonable.

Britt

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

There is relatively good agreement in the global models in that a
positively tilted mean trough will stay established through at
least the first half of next week from central Canada into the
western CONUS. This will keep a relatively fast zonal flow over
MO/IL through most of the period. A large area of surface high
pressure will move under the zonal flow with no real notable
shortwaves troughs that would offer any precipitation chances at
least through Thursday. Model discrepancies show up by Friday as
the operational GFS is faster than it`s own ensemble mean in
ejecting the main upper low out of the southwest toward the
Midwest. While this is faster than the rest of the models, even
the ECMWF is showing precipitation developing over the area in a
broad warm air advection regime ahead of it bringing the upper low
through the area on Saturday. So with this said will go ahead and
introduce snow with some rain to the forecast on Friday.

Cold front will pass through the area on Monday and temperatures
will fall below normal on Tuesday and Wednesday before returning to
near normal for the start of a new year late in the week.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1203 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

MVFR SC deck over far southern Missouri to slowly develop and
slide north this afternoon as low level moisture is on the
increase ahead of next weather system. But movement/development is
a bit slower than originally thought, so backed off at taf sites
til early this evening. Otherwise, winds to remain from the south
til frontal passage which will be between 12z-15z Saturday, then winds
to veer to the west around 15kts. Precipitation will be limited
with it mainly occurring with frontal passage, except over
central, northeast MO, west central IL. Kept mention of light rain
for KCOU after 03z Saturday and around 06z for KUIN. Cigs to lower
but remain low end mvfr with frontal passage.

Specifics for KSTL:
MVFR SC deck over far southern Missouri to slowly develop and
slide north this afternoon as low level moisture is on the
increase ahead of next weather system. But movement/development is
a bit slower than originally thought, so backed off at KSTL til
after 00z Saturday. Otherwise, winds to remain from the south til frontal
passage which will be around 15z Saturday, then winds to veer to
the west around 15kts. Precipitation will be limited with it mainly
occurring with frontal passage. Cigs to lower but remain low end
mvfr with frontal passage.

Byrd

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 262139
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
339 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Sunday Night)
Issued at 329 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

Low pressure will develop along the cold front currently over
northwest Missouri in response to shortwave trough ejecting out of
the base of mean trough over the western CONUS tonight.  This low
will move northeast into the Great Lakes by tomorrow at the same
time that the shortwave moves into the the Upper Midwest.  NAM and
GFS show that the cold front will enter the northwest part of the
CWA late tonight and exit the CWA by tomorrow afternoon.  While
precipitation is currently limited on radar over the central CONUS,
expect rain chances to increase rapidly this evening as low level
moisture convergence increases ahead of shortwave trough. Latest
runs of the HRRR as well as the NSSL-WRF have depicted rain
developing throughout the evening hours with it becoming more
concentrated over southeast Missouri into southern Illinois after
midnight. Have continued going forecast trend of increasing
chance PoPs through the evening hours and with likely PoPs over
the southeast half of the CWA after midnight. Then concentrated
likely PoPs tomorrow morning over the southeast half of the CWA
when the GFS depicts increasing mid level frontogenesis associated
with the shortwave trough. Kept a chance of rain or snow going
over the far southeast part of the CWA tomorrow evening before
drier air and subsidence works into the area on Saturday evening.
Sunday and Sunday evening still looks dry at this point.

Kept with falling temperatures will frontal passage tomorrow.
Otherwise MOS guidance are in decent agreement and looks
reasonable.

Britt

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

There is relatively good agreement in the global models in that a
positively tilted mean trough will stay established through at
least the first half of next week from central Canada into the
western CONUS. This will keep a relatively fast zonal flow over
MO/IL through most of the period. A large area of surface high
pressure will move under the zonal flow with no real notable
shortwaves troughs that would offer any precipitation chances at
least through Thursday. Model discrepancies show up by Friday as
the operational GFS is faster than it`s own ensemble mean in
ejecting the main upper low out of the southwest toward the
Midwest. While this is faster than the rest of the models, even
the ECMWF is showing precipitation developing over the area in a
broad warm air advection regime ahead of it bringing the upper low
through the area on Saturday. So with this said will go ahead and
introduce snow with some rain to the forecast on Friday.

Cold front will pass through the area on Monday and temperatures
will fall below normal on Tuesday and Wednesday before returning to
near normal for the start of a new year late in the week.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1203 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

MVFR SC deck over far southern Missouri to slowly develop and
slide north this afternoon as low level moisture is on the
increase ahead of next weather system. But movement/development is
a bit slower than originally thought, so backed off at taf sites
til early this evening. Otherwise, winds to remain from the south
til frontal passage which will be between 12z-15z Saturday, then winds
to veer to the west around 15kts. Precipitation will be limited
with it mainly occurring with frontal passage, except over
central, northeast MO, west central IL. Kept mention of light rain
for KCOU after 03z Saturday and around 06z for KUIN. Cigs to lower
but remain low end mvfr with frontal passage.

Specifics for KSTL:
MVFR SC deck over far southern Missouri to slowly develop and
slide north this afternoon as low level moisture is on the
increase ahead of next weather system. But movement/development is
a bit slower than originally thought, so backed off at KSTL til
after 00z Saturday. Otherwise, winds to remain from the south til frontal
passage which will be around 15z Saturday, then winds to veer to
the west around 15kts. Precipitation will be limited with it mainly
occurring with frontal passage. Cigs to lower but remain low end
mvfr with frontal passage.

Byrd

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 262139
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
339 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Sunday Night)
Issued at 329 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

Low pressure will develop along the cold front currently over
northwest Missouri in response to shortwave trough ejecting out of
the base of mean trough over the western CONUS tonight.  This low
will move northeast into the Great Lakes by tomorrow at the same
time that the shortwave moves into the the Upper Midwest.  NAM and
GFS show that the cold front will enter the northwest part of the
CWA late tonight and exit the CWA by tomorrow afternoon.  While
precipitation is currently limited on radar over the central CONUS,
expect rain chances to increase rapidly this evening as low level
moisture convergence increases ahead of shortwave trough. Latest
runs of the HRRR as well as the NSSL-WRF have depicted rain
developing throughout the evening hours with it becoming more
concentrated over southeast Missouri into southern Illinois after
midnight. Have continued going forecast trend of increasing
chance PoPs through the evening hours and with likely PoPs over
the southeast half of the CWA after midnight. Then concentrated
likely PoPs tomorrow morning over the southeast half of the CWA
when the GFS depicts increasing mid level frontogenesis associated
with the shortwave trough. Kept a chance of rain or snow going
over the far southeast part of the CWA tomorrow evening before
drier air and subsidence works into the area on Saturday evening.
Sunday and Sunday evening still looks dry at this point.

Kept with falling temperatures will frontal passage tomorrow.
Otherwise MOS guidance are in decent agreement and looks
reasonable.

Britt

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

There is relatively good agreement in the global models in that a
positively tilted mean trough will stay established through at
least the first half of next week from central Canada into the
western CONUS. This will keep a relatively fast zonal flow over
MO/IL through most of the period. A large area of surface high
pressure will move under the zonal flow with no real notable
shortwaves troughs that would offer any precipitation chances at
least through Thursday. Model discrepancies show up by Friday as
the operational GFS is faster than it`s own ensemble mean in
ejecting the main upper low out of the southwest toward the
Midwest. While this is faster than the rest of the models, even
the ECMWF is showing precipitation developing over the area in a
broad warm air advection regime ahead of it bringing the upper low
through the area on Saturday. So with this said will go ahead and
introduce snow with some rain to the forecast on Friday.

Cold front will pass through the area on Monday and temperatures
will fall below normal on Tuesday and Wednesday before returning to
near normal for the start of a new year late in the week.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1203 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

MVFR SC deck over far southern Missouri to slowly develop and
slide north this afternoon as low level moisture is on the
increase ahead of next weather system. But movement/development is
a bit slower than originally thought, so backed off at taf sites
til early this evening. Otherwise, winds to remain from the south
til frontal passage which will be between 12z-15z Saturday, then winds
to veer to the west around 15kts. Precipitation will be limited
with it mainly occurring with frontal passage, except over
central, northeast MO, west central IL. Kept mention of light rain
for KCOU after 03z Saturday and around 06z for KUIN. Cigs to lower
but remain low end mvfr with frontal passage.

Specifics for KSTL:
MVFR SC deck over far southern Missouri to slowly develop and
slide north this afternoon as low level moisture is on the
increase ahead of next weather system. But movement/development is
a bit slower than originally thought, so backed off at KSTL til
after 00z Saturday. Otherwise, winds to remain from the south til frontal
passage which will be around 15z Saturday, then winds to veer to
the west around 15kts. Precipitation will be limited with it mainly
occurring with frontal passage. Cigs to lower but remain low end
mvfr with frontal passage.

Byrd

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 262139
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
339 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Sunday Night)
Issued at 329 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

Low pressure will develop along the cold front currently over
northwest Missouri in response to shortwave trough ejecting out of
the base of mean trough over the western CONUS tonight.  This low
will move northeast into the Great Lakes by tomorrow at the same
time that the shortwave moves into the the Upper Midwest.  NAM and
GFS show that the cold front will enter the northwest part of the
CWA late tonight and exit the CWA by tomorrow afternoon.  While
precipitation is currently limited on radar over the central CONUS,
expect rain chances to increase rapidly this evening as low level
moisture convergence increases ahead of shortwave trough. Latest
runs of the HRRR as well as the NSSL-WRF have depicted rain
developing throughout the evening hours with it becoming more
concentrated over southeast Missouri into southern Illinois after
midnight. Have continued going forecast trend of increasing
chance PoPs through the evening hours and with likely PoPs over
the southeast half of the CWA after midnight. Then concentrated
likely PoPs tomorrow morning over the southeast half of the CWA
when the GFS depicts increasing mid level frontogenesis associated
with the shortwave trough. Kept a chance of rain or snow going
over the far southeast part of the CWA tomorrow evening before
drier air and subsidence works into the area on Saturday evening.
Sunday and Sunday evening still looks dry at this point.

Kept with falling temperatures will frontal passage tomorrow.
Otherwise MOS guidance are in decent agreement and looks
reasonable.

Britt

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

There is relatively good agreement in the global models in that a
positively tilted mean trough will stay established through at
least the first half of next week from central Canada into the
western CONUS. This will keep a relatively fast zonal flow over
MO/IL through most of the period. A large area of surface high
pressure will move under the zonal flow with no real notable
shortwaves troughs that would offer any precipitation chances at
least through Thursday. Model discrepancies show up by Friday as
the operational GFS is faster than it`s own ensemble mean in
ejecting the main upper low out of the southwest toward the
Midwest. While this is faster than the rest of the models, even
the ECMWF is showing precipitation developing over the area in a
broad warm air advection regime ahead of it bringing the upper low
through the area on Saturday. So with this said will go ahead and
introduce snow with some rain to the forecast on Friday.

Cold front will pass through the area on Monday and temperatures
will fall below normal on Tuesday and Wednesday before returning to
near normal for the start of a new year late in the week.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1203 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

MVFR SC deck over far southern Missouri to slowly develop and
slide north this afternoon as low level moisture is on the
increase ahead of next weather system. But movement/development is
a bit slower than originally thought, so backed off at taf sites
til early this evening. Otherwise, winds to remain from the south
til frontal passage which will be between 12z-15z Saturday, then winds
to veer to the west around 15kts. Precipitation will be limited
with it mainly occurring with frontal passage, except over
central, northeast MO, west central IL. Kept mention of light rain
for KCOU after 03z Saturday and around 06z for KUIN. Cigs to lower
but remain low end mvfr with frontal passage.

Specifics for KSTL:
MVFR SC deck over far southern Missouri to slowly develop and
slide north this afternoon as low level moisture is on the
increase ahead of next weather system. But movement/development is
a bit slower than originally thought, so backed off at KSTL til
after 00z Saturday. Otherwise, winds to remain from the south til frontal
passage which will be around 15z Saturday, then winds to veer to
the west around 15kts. Precipitation will be limited with it mainly
occurring with frontal passage. Cigs to lower but remain low end
mvfr with frontal passage.

Byrd

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 262107
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
307 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Cold front has reached the KC area this afternoon, though its
southward progress has slowed with a weak surface wave moving
up from the south. This feature is starting to produce some light
showers across west central Missouri, and light precip should
continue to blossom through the late afternoon and evening as low
pressure rides up the boundary. Precip amounts will be light,
generally less than a tenth of an inch, and mostly confined to areas
near and southeast of the I-35 corridor. Temperatures should remain
above freezing across these areas so no wintry precipitation is
expected.

Behind the front, a second area of precipitation developing over
central KS will spread into eastern Nebraska and northern Iowa
overnight where several inches of snow will accumulate, but most of
this snowfall now looks like it will miss our forecast area almost
entirely to the north. While far northwest Missouri may still see
some light snow later this evening, possibly even a bit of sleet, any
accumulations should be very minor and may not accumulate at all with
relatively warm ground temperatures.

Airmass behind the front will be seasonably chilly with highs in the
30s and lows in the teens/20s over the weekend. A stronger front will
swing through the region on Monday and looks to bring some of the
coldest air of the season so far. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday are
forecast to be in the 20s...maybe even teens for some areas...while
lows drop into the single digits. Wind chills could be between zero
and 10 below. Other than perhaps some very light snow accompanying
Monday`s front, the forecast through the middle of next week looks
dry. The pattern then looks to get active by late next week with both
GFS and ECMWF taking a closed upper low out of the Southwest and into
the Plains/Midwest by Friday/Saturday. Will be interesting to watch how
future model runs play out, but given the inherent low-predictability
with such a system, several swings in track and intensity are highly
likely and we are still days away from knowing any details, or even
if such a system will impact our region at all.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Cold front has made it very close to MCI...near Fort Leavenworth in
fact...but it will slow down significantly over the next few hours
and may even nudge back northwest a bit. Therefore don`t expect
frontal passage into downtown KC until after sunset, but being so
close to MCI, wouldn`t be surprised if winds there took a brief turn
from the northwest over the next couple of hours. Front will surge
south later today with IFR ceilings and perhaps some light rain
behind it. Any snow should stay north of STJ.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 262107
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
307 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Cold front has reached the KC area this afternoon, though its
southward progress has slowed with a weak surface wave moving
up from the south. This feature is starting to produce some light
showers across west central Missouri, and light precip should
continue to blossom through the late afternoon and evening as low
pressure rides up the boundary. Precip amounts will be light,
generally less than a tenth of an inch, and mostly confined to areas
near and southeast of the I-35 corridor. Temperatures should remain
above freezing across these areas so no wintry precipitation is
expected.

Behind the front, a second area of precipitation developing over
central KS will spread into eastern Nebraska and northern Iowa
overnight where several inches of snow will accumulate, but most of
this snowfall now looks like it will miss our forecast area almost
entirely to the north. While far northwest Missouri may still see
some light snow later this evening, possibly even a bit of sleet, any
accumulations should be very minor and may not accumulate at all with
relatively warm ground temperatures.

Airmass behind the front will be seasonably chilly with highs in the
30s and lows in the teens/20s over the weekend. A stronger front will
swing through the region on Monday and looks to bring some of the
coldest air of the season so far. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday are
forecast to be in the 20s...maybe even teens for some areas...while
lows drop into the single digits. Wind chills could be between zero
and 10 below. Other than perhaps some very light snow accompanying
Monday`s front, the forecast through the middle of next week looks
dry. The pattern then looks to get active by late next week with both
GFS and ECMWF taking a closed upper low out of the Southwest and into
the Plains/Midwest by Friday/Saturday. Will be interesting to watch how
future model runs play out, but given the inherent low-predictability
with such a system, several swings in track and intensity are highly
likely and we are still days away from knowing any details, or even
if such a system will impact our region at all.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Cold front has made it very close to MCI...near Fort Leavenworth in
fact...but it will slow down significantly over the next few hours
and may even nudge back northwest a bit. Therefore don`t expect
frontal passage into downtown KC until after sunset, but being so
close to MCI, wouldn`t be surprised if winds there took a brief turn
from the northwest over the next couple of hours. Front will surge
south later today with IFR ceilings and perhaps some light rain
behind it. Any snow should stay north of STJ.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel






000
FXUS63 KSGF 262106
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
306 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

...Showers Likely Tonight...Much Colder Weather Next Week...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 212 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

We had a little more sunshine earlier today before the clouds
finally moved in and that helped warm temperatures into the middle
and some upper 50s. The clouds are back for at least the next 24
hours. Radar is showing some light echoes developing which could
be some patchy drizzle or light showers. We can expected this to
gradually increase and expand later this evening and become
widespread showers after midnight through early tomorrow morning.

The cold front is currently near Kansas City down to just
southeast of Wichita. This front will slowly move southeastward
tonight. It will remain somewhat breezy tonight ahead of the front
and temperatures will remain mild in the middle to upper 40s
tonight ahead of the front. The front will reach roughly the Kansas and
Missouri state line by 3 am and the Highway 65 corridor by 6 am.
Temperatures behind the front will drop into the upper 30s by
tomorrow morning.

Showers will end from west to east Saturday afternoon and exit the
eastern Missouri Ozarks late Saturday evening. Temperatures will
fall most of the day across the area Saturday...eventually
most areas will be in the upper 30s by Saturday afternoon. There
could be a very low chance of a wet snow flake mix in on the back
edge of the exiting showers. If that does happen...not expecting
any impacts and again temperatures will be above freezing in the
upper 30s. Clouds will clear out late Saturday night into early
Sunday morning and temperatures will drop into the middle and
upper 20s.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 212 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Sunshine and a few clouds will be around on Sunday and Monday with
seasonable temperatures. The next weather feature to watch will be
an Arctic front that will arrive Monday night. The front will move
through quietly with mainly cloudy skies. Northerly winds will
pick up and strong cold air advection will take place. There have
been some potential of maybe some flurries possible in a couple of
the models Monday night and early Tuesday with the passage of the
Arctic front.

Temperatures will be very cold Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs will
be sub freezing in the middle 20s to lower 30s and overnight lows
down in the teens. Wind chills will be down in the single digits
to near zero. The weather will be dry through Thursday.

As been previously discussed in earlier forecast
discussions...there will be a strong piece of upper level energy
will move down the western U.S. middle of next week. This system
will become cut off into a slow moving upper level low over the
Four Corner`s Region. With cold air in place most of next
week...this is a system to watch for the end of next week for any
impacts to the region.

The latest model guidance suggest this upper level low pressure
system will move out across the southern U.S. into the Mid
Mississippi River Valley Region by the end of next week. At this
time...will introduce a chance of precipitation Thursday night
into Friday night. Depending on exact track and evolution of this
system will have implications on what type of precip we will see.
Right now will mention the potential for some type of wintry
weather possible end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Challenging forecast over the next 24 hours. Moisture on the rise
across the area and this will lead to the development, expansion
and lowering of stratus this afternoon into this evening. Just
starting to see signs of high end MVFR/low end VFR developing to
the southwest of the TAF sites, and this should continue to spread
northeastward. Timing is still a bit of a mess so have covered
onset with TEMPO groups. By late this afternoon and this evening,
stratus will be entrenched and lowering, eventually to IFR. Light
rain showers and drizzle will develop with the lowering cloud
bases as southerly winds continue. Potential for LIFR exists where
drizzle is heaviest. Cold front will enter from the northwest
late tonight into Saturday. IFR/low end MVFR will persist through
the end of the TAF cycle.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 262106
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
306 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

...Showers Likely Tonight...Much Colder Weather Next Week...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 212 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

We had a little more sunshine earlier today before the clouds
finally moved in and that helped warm temperatures into the middle
and some upper 50s. The clouds are back for at least the next 24
hours. Radar is showing some light echoes developing which could
be some patchy drizzle or light showers. We can expected this to
gradually increase and expand later this evening and become
widespread showers after midnight through early tomorrow morning.

The cold front is currently near Kansas City down to just
southeast of Wichita. This front will slowly move southeastward
tonight. It will remain somewhat breezy tonight ahead of the front
and temperatures will remain mild in the middle to upper 40s
tonight ahead of the front. The front will reach roughly the Kansas and
Missouri state line by 3 am and the Highway 65 corridor by 6 am.
Temperatures behind the front will drop into the upper 30s by
tomorrow morning.

Showers will end from west to east Saturday afternoon and exit the
eastern Missouri Ozarks late Saturday evening. Temperatures will
fall most of the day across the area Saturday...eventually
most areas will be in the upper 30s by Saturday afternoon. There
could be a very low chance of a wet snow flake mix in on the back
edge of the exiting showers. If that does happen...not expecting
any impacts and again temperatures will be above freezing in the
upper 30s. Clouds will clear out late Saturday night into early
Sunday morning and temperatures will drop into the middle and
upper 20s.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 212 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Sunshine and a few clouds will be around on Sunday and Monday with
seasonable temperatures. The next weather feature to watch will be
an Arctic front that will arrive Monday night. The front will move
through quietly with mainly cloudy skies. Northerly winds will
pick up and strong cold air advection will take place. There have
been some potential of maybe some flurries possible in a couple of
the models Monday night and early Tuesday with the passage of the
Arctic front.

Temperatures will be very cold Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs will
be sub freezing in the middle 20s to lower 30s and overnight lows
down in the teens. Wind chills will be down in the single digits
to near zero. The weather will be dry through Thursday.

As been previously discussed in earlier forecast
discussions...there will be a strong piece of upper level energy
will move down the western U.S. middle of next week. This system
will become cut off into a slow moving upper level low over the
Four Corner`s Region. With cold air in place most of next
week...this is a system to watch for the end of next week for any
impacts to the region.

The latest model guidance suggest this upper level low pressure
system will move out across the southern U.S. into the Mid
Mississippi River Valley Region by the end of next week. At this
time...will introduce a chance of precipitation Thursday night
into Friday night. Depending on exact track and evolution of this
system will have implications on what type of precip we will see.
Right now will mention the potential for some type of wintry
weather possible end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Challenging forecast over the next 24 hours. Moisture on the rise
across the area and this will lead to the development, expansion
and lowering of stratus this afternoon into this evening. Just
starting to see signs of high end MVFR/low end VFR developing to
the southwest of the TAF sites, and this should continue to spread
northeastward. Timing is still a bit of a mess so have covered
onset with TEMPO groups. By late this afternoon and this evening,
stratus will be entrenched and lowering, eventually to IFR. Light
rain showers and drizzle will develop with the lowering cloud
bases as southerly winds continue. Potential for LIFR exists where
drizzle is heaviest. Cold front will enter from the northwest
late tonight into Saturday. IFR/low end MVFR will persist through
the end of the TAF cycle.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KLSX 261803
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1203 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1154 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

Clouds not moving in as fast as originally thought, so backed off
on cloud cover for this afternoon for most of forecast area. Also,
temps warming up more, so raised highs a few degrees for this
afternoon.

Byrd
&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 347 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

With a cold front located upstream and poised to move through the
area tomorrow, it appears that the unseasonably warm December
weather will be coming to an end during the upcoming weekend.
However, the warm weather of Christmas Day will certainly linger
into today, with highs in the low to mid 50s. These readings will
be some 10-15 degrees above average, and will make it feel more
like a typical day in late November or early March. Clouds should
start increasing this afternoon due to increasing moisture and
lift ahead of a low pressure system.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 347 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

(Tonight through Sunday)

Primary challenge heading into the weekend is pinning down PoP
trends.  Increasing southerly low level flow that commences today
and intensifies tonight will certainly be transporting decent low
level moisture into the area, with forecast soundings from both the
NAM and GFS indicating saturation occurring in the lowest 5-10kft by
Saturday morning.  However, mid level moisture is much more scant
and lift well ahead of the approaching front doesn`t appear to be
all that intense and/or focused, so am wondering if the precip
threat based on 00z MOS PoPs and some of QPF output is misleading.

In general, expect a increasing threat of rain overnight from west
to east as the moisture and lift slowly increases across the
region.  Have gone a bit higher with PoPs in our NW counties than in
current forecast, as model consensus indicates an increase of mid
level moisture in this area along with somewhat better lift tied to
approaching front.  Have also upped late night PoPs in our far south
with some fairly strong 85h moisture advection indicated in this
area by 12z.

The precip that does form overnight will wind down from NW to SE on
Saturday and Saturday evening, but with upper trof lagging cold
front by a considerable distance am hesitant to end the precip too
quickly.  With the low level cold air surging south, it`s possible
that there could be some ptype issues if the precip can linger long
enough by the time the freezing level drops to critical levels.
Right now it looks like the Schmocker Rule will be in effect with
most of the precip shutting down before AMS cools enough to support
snow, but due to the lag of the upper trof have added a bit of a
rain/snow mix just as the precip comes to an end.

Temperatures tonight and into early Saturday will certainly be on
the mild side due to the fairly strong and persistent southerly
winds, but the mercury will be taking a tumble during the day on
Saturday and into Saturday evening as the cold front pushes across
the area. Have attempted to reflect this thinking with tonight`s
lows and Saturday`s highs derived from a 3 hourly, non-diurnal
temp trend in the gridded data set.

This colder air will mean a return of more "typical" late December
temperatures by Sunday, with highs primarily in the 30s along with a
fair amount of sunshine.

(Monday-Thursday)

Medium range solutions in fairly good agreement in developing a W-E
trof from S Canada into the western U.S. in the early part of next
week.  The trof is then forecast to sweep across the central
CONUS by midweek while energy in the base of the trof breaks off and
forms a cut-off low over CA.  Passage of the trof in our area should
usher in some arctic air in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame, but
temps should moderate a bit by Thursday as the trof and coldest air
works into the eastern U.S.

Much of the medium range looks dry with limited dynamics and
moisture progged across area.  However, this could be changing by
the end of the medium range period (next Friday) as the upper low
over CA opens up and is ejected eastward.

Truett
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1203 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

MVFR SC deck over far southern Missouri to slowly develop and
slide north this afternoon as low level moisture is on the
increase ahead of next weather system. But movement/development is
a bit slower than orignally thought, so backed off at taf sites
til early this evening. Otherwise, winds to remain from the south
til frontal passage which will be between 12z-15z Saturday, then winds
to veer to the west around 15kts. Precipitation will be limited
with it mainly occurring with frontal passage, except over
central, northeast MO, west central IL. Kept mention of light rain
for KCOU after 03z Saturday and around 06z for KUIN. Cigs to lower
but remain low end mvfr with frontal passage.

Specifics for KSTL:
MVFR SC deck over far southern Missouri to slowly develop and
slide north this afternoon as low level moisture is on the
increase ahead of next weather system. But movement/development is
a bit slower than orignally thought, so backed off at KSTL til
after 00z Saturday. Otherwise, winds to remain from the south til frontal
passage which will be around 15z Saturday, then winds to veer to
the west around 15kts. Precipitation will be limited with it mainly
occurring with frontal passage. Cigs to lower but remain low end
mvfr with frontal passage.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 261803
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1203 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1154 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

Clouds not moving in as fast as originally thought, so backed off
on cloud cover for this afternoon for most of forecast area. Also,
temps warming up more, so raised highs a few degrees for this
afternoon.

Byrd
&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 347 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

With a cold front located upstream and poised to move through the
area tomorrow, it appears that the unseasonably warm December
weather will be coming to an end during the upcoming weekend.
However, the warm weather of Christmas Day will certainly linger
into today, with highs in the low to mid 50s. These readings will
be some 10-15 degrees above average, and will make it feel more
like a typical day in late November or early March. Clouds should
start increasing this afternoon due to increasing moisture and
lift ahead of a low pressure system.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 347 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

(Tonight through Sunday)

Primary challenge heading into the weekend is pinning down PoP
trends.  Increasing southerly low level flow that commences today
and intensifies tonight will certainly be transporting decent low
level moisture into the area, with forecast soundings from both the
NAM and GFS indicating saturation occurring in the lowest 5-10kft by
Saturday morning.  However, mid level moisture is much more scant
and lift well ahead of the approaching front doesn`t appear to be
all that intense and/or focused, so am wondering if the precip
threat based on 00z MOS PoPs and some of QPF output is misleading.

In general, expect a increasing threat of rain overnight from west
to east as the moisture and lift slowly increases across the
region.  Have gone a bit higher with PoPs in our NW counties than in
current forecast, as model consensus indicates an increase of mid
level moisture in this area along with somewhat better lift tied to
approaching front.  Have also upped late night PoPs in our far south
with some fairly strong 85h moisture advection indicated in this
area by 12z.

The precip that does form overnight will wind down from NW to SE on
Saturday and Saturday evening, but with upper trof lagging cold
front by a considerable distance am hesitant to end the precip too
quickly.  With the low level cold air surging south, it`s possible
that there could be some ptype issues if the precip can linger long
enough by the time the freezing level drops to critical levels.
Right now it looks like the Schmocker Rule will be in effect with
most of the precip shutting down before AMS cools enough to support
snow, but due to the lag of the upper trof have added a bit of a
rain/snow mix just as the precip comes to an end.

Temperatures tonight and into early Saturday will certainly be on
the mild side due to the fairly strong and persistent southerly
winds, but the mercury will be taking a tumble during the day on
Saturday and into Saturday evening as the cold front pushes across
the area. Have attempted to reflect this thinking with tonight`s
lows and Saturday`s highs derived from a 3 hourly, non-diurnal
temp trend in the gridded data set.

This colder air will mean a return of more "typical" late December
temperatures by Sunday, with highs primarily in the 30s along with a
fair amount of sunshine.

(Monday-Thursday)

Medium range solutions in fairly good agreement in developing a W-E
trof from S Canada into the western U.S. in the early part of next
week.  The trof is then forecast to sweep across the central
CONUS by midweek while energy in the base of the trof breaks off and
forms a cut-off low over CA.  Passage of the trof in our area should
usher in some arctic air in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame, but
temps should moderate a bit by Thursday as the trof and coldest air
works into the eastern U.S.

Much of the medium range looks dry with limited dynamics and
moisture progged across area.  However, this could be changing by
the end of the medium range period (next Friday) as the upper low
over CA opens up and is ejected eastward.

Truett
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1203 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

MVFR SC deck over far southern Missouri to slowly develop and
slide north this afternoon as low level moisture is on the
increase ahead of next weather system. But movement/development is
a bit slower than orignally thought, so backed off at taf sites
til early this evening. Otherwise, winds to remain from the south
til frontal passage which will be between 12z-15z Saturday, then winds
to veer to the west around 15kts. Precipitation will be limited
with it mainly occurring with frontal passage, except over
central, northeast MO, west central IL. Kept mention of light rain
for KCOU after 03z Saturday and around 06z for KUIN. Cigs to lower
but remain low end mvfr with frontal passage.

Specifics for KSTL:
MVFR SC deck over far southern Missouri to slowly develop and
slide north this afternoon as low level moisture is on the
increase ahead of next weather system. But movement/development is
a bit slower than orignally thought, so backed off at KSTL til
after 00z Saturday. Otherwise, winds to remain from the south til frontal
passage which will be around 15z Saturday, then winds to veer to
the west around 15kts. Precipitation will be limited with it mainly
occurring with frontal passage. Cigs to lower but remain low end
mvfr with frontal passage.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 261803
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1203 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1154 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

Clouds not moving in as fast as originally thought, so backed off
on cloud cover for this afternoon for most of forecast area. Also,
temps warming up more, so raised highs a few degrees for this
afternoon.

Byrd
&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 347 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

With a cold front located upstream and poised to move through the
area tomorrow, it appears that the unseasonably warm December
weather will be coming to an end during the upcoming weekend.
However, the warm weather of Christmas Day will certainly linger
into today, with highs in the low to mid 50s. These readings will
be some 10-15 degrees above average, and will make it feel more
like a typical day in late November or early March. Clouds should
start increasing this afternoon due to increasing moisture and
lift ahead of a low pressure system.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 347 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

(Tonight through Sunday)

Primary challenge heading into the weekend is pinning down PoP
trends.  Increasing southerly low level flow that commences today
and intensifies tonight will certainly be transporting decent low
level moisture into the area, with forecast soundings from both the
NAM and GFS indicating saturation occurring in the lowest 5-10kft by
Saturday morning.  However, mid level moisture is much more scant
and lift well ahead of the approaching front doesn`t appear to be
all that intense and/or focused, so am wondering if the precip
threat based on 00z MOS PoPs and some of QPF output is misleading.

In general, expect a increasing threat of rain overnight from west
to east as the moisture and lift slowly increases across the
region.  Have gone a bit higher with PoPs in our NW counties than in
current forecast, as model consensus indicates an increase of mid
level moisture in this area along with somewhat better lift tied to
approaching front.  Have also upped late night PoPs in our far south
with some fairly strong 85h moisture advection indicated in this
area by 12z.

The precip that does form overnight will wind down from NW to SE on
Saturday and Saturday evening, but with upper trof lagging cold
front by a considerable distance am hesitant to end the precip too
quickly.  With the low level cold air surging south, it`s possible
that there could be some ptype issues if the precip can linger long
enough by the time the freezing level drops to critical levels.
Right now it looks like the Schmocker Rule will be in effect with
most of the precip shutting down before AMS cools enough to support
snow, but due to the lag of the upper trof have added a bit of a
rain/snow mix just as the precip comes to an end.

Temperatures tonight and into early Saturday will certainly be on
the mild side due to the fairly strong and persistent southerly
winds, but the mercury will be taking a tumble during the day on
Saturday and into Saturday evening as the cold front pushes across
the area. Have attempted to reflect this thinking with tonight`s
lows and Saturday`s highs derived from a 3 hourly, non-diurnal
temp trend in the gridded data set.

This colder air will mean a return of more "typical" late December
temperatures by Sunday, with highs primarily in the 30s along with a
fair amount of sunshine.

(Monday-Thursday)

Medium range solutions in fairly good agreement in developing a W-E
trof from S Canada into the western U.S. in the early part of next
week.  The trof is then forecast to sweep across the central
CONUS by midweek while energy in the base of the trof breaks off and
forms a cut-off low over CA.  Passage of the trof in our area should
usher in some arctic air in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame, but
temps should moderate a bit by Thursday as the trof and coldest air
works into the eastern U.S.

Much of the medium range looks dry with limited dynamics and
moisture progged across area.  However, this could be changing by
the end of the medium range period (next Friday) as the upper low
over CA opens up and is ejected eastward.

Truett
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1203 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

MVFR SC deck over far southern Missouri to slowly develop and
slide north this afternoon as low level moisture is on the
increase ahead of next weather system. But movement/development is
a bit slower than orignally thought, so backed off at taf sites
til early this evening. Otherwise, winds to remain from the south
til frontal passage which will be between 12z-15z Saturday, then winds
to veer to the west around 15kts. Precipitation will be limited
with it mainly occurring with frontal passage, except over
central, northeast MO, west central IL. Kept mention of light rain
for KCOU after 03z Saturday and around 06z for KUIN. Cigs to lower
but remain low end mvfr with frontal passage.

Specifics for KSTL:
MVFR SC deck over far southern Missouri to slowly develop and
slide north this afternoon as low level moisture is on the
increase ahead of next weather system. But movement/development is
a bit slower than orignally thought, so backed off at KSTL til
after 00z Saturday. Otherwise, winds to remain from the south til frontal
passage which will be around 15z Saturday, then winds to veer to
the west around 15kts. Precipitation will be limited with it mainly
occurring with frontal passage. Cigs to lower but remain low end
mvfr with frontal passage.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 261803
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1203 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1154 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

Clouds not moving in as fast as originally thought, so backed off
on cloud cover for this afternoon for most of forecast area. Also,
temps warming up more, so raised highs a few degrees for this
afternoon.

Byrd
&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 347 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

With a cold front located upstream and poised to move through the
area tomorrow, it appears that the unseasonably warm December
weather will be coming to an end during the upcoming weekend.
However, the warm weather of Christmas Day will certainly linger
into today, with highs in the low to mid 50s. These readings will
be some 10-15 degrees above average, and will make it feel more
like a typical day in late November or early March. Clouds should
start increasing this afternoon due to increasing moisture and
lift ahead of a low pressure system.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 347 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

(Tonight through Sunday)

Primary challenge heading into the weekend is pinning down PoP
trends.  Increasing southerly low level flow that commences today
and intensifies tonight will certainly be transporting decent low
level moisture into the area, with forecast soundings from both the
NAM and GFS indicating saturation occurring in the lowest 5-10kft by
Saturday morning.  However, mid level moisture is much more scant
and lift well ahead of the approaching front doesn`t appear to be
all that intense and/or focused, so am wondering if the precip
threat based on 00z MOS PoPs and some of QPF output is misleading.

In general, expect a increasing threat of rain overnight from west
to east as the moisture and lift slowly increases across the
region.  Have gone a bit higher with PoPs in our NW counties than in
current forecast, as model consensus indicates an increase of mid
level moisture in this area along with somewhat better lift tied to
approaching front.  Have also upped late night PoPs in our far south
with some fairly strong 85h moisture advection indicated in this
area by 12z.

The precip that does form overnight will wind down from NW to SE on
Saturday and Saturday evening, but with upper trof lagging cold
front by a considerable distance am hesitant to end the precip too
quickly.  With the low level cold air surging south, it`s possible
that there could be some ptype issues if the precip can linger long
enough by the time the freezing level drops to critical levels.
Right now it looks like the Schmocker Rule will be in effect with
most of the precip shutting down before AMS cools enough to support
snow, but due to the lag of the upper trof have added a bit of a
rain/snow mix just as the precip comes to an end.

Temperatures tonight and into early Saturday will certainly be on
the mild side due to the fairly strong and persistent southerly
winds, but the mercury will be taking a tumble during the day on
Saturday and into Saturday evening as the cold front pushes across
the area. Have attempted to reflect this thinking with tonight`s
lows and Saturday`s highs derived from a 3 hourly, non-diurnal
temp trend in the gridded data set.

This colder air will mean a return of more "typical" late December
temperatures by Sunday, with highs primarily in the 30s along with a
fair amount of sunshine.

(Monday-Thursday)

Medium range solutions in fairly good agreement in developing a W-E
trof from S Canada into the western U.S. in the early part of next
week.  The trof is then forecast to sweep across the central
CONUS by midweek while energy in the base of the trof breaks off and
forms a cut-off low over CA.  Passage of the trof in our area should
usher in some arctic air in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame, but
temps should moderate a bit by Thursday as the trof and coldest air
works into the eastern U.S.

Much of the medium range looks dry with limited dynamics and
moisture progged across area.  However, this could be changing by
the end of the medium range period (next Friday) as the upper low
over CA opens up and is ejected eastward.

Truett
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1203 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

MVFR SC deck over far southern Missouri to slowly develop and
slide north this afternoon as low level moisture is on the
increase ahead of next weather system. But movement/development is
a bit slower than orignally thought, so backed off at taf sites
til early this evening. Otherwise, winds to remain from the south
til frontal passage which will be between 12z-15z Saturday, then winds
to veer to the west around 15kts. Precipitation will be limited
with it mainly occurring with frontal passage, except over
central, northeast MO, west central IL. Kept mention of light rain
for KCOU after 03z Saturday and around 06z for KUIN. Cigs to lower
but remain low end mvfr with frontal passage.

Specifics for KSTL:
MVFR SC deck over far southern Missouri to slowly develop and
slide north this afternoon as low level moisture is on the
increase ahead of next weather system. But movement/development is
a bit slower than orignally thought, so backed off at KSTL til
after 00z Saturday. Otherwise, winds to remain from the south til frontal
passage which will be around 15z Saturday, then winds to veer to
the west around 15kts. Precipitation will be limited with it mainly
occurring with frontal passage. Cigs to lower but remain low end
mvfr with frontal passage.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 261748
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1148 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 431 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Post holiday weather across eastern Kansas and Missouri today will
start rather nice, but will deteriorate overnight with cooler
temperatures then prevailing through weekend into next week. Early
morning water vapor imagery shows a pronounced trough swinging
through the Four Corners region inducing a pleasant southwest flow
across the Southern and Central Plains. Another shortwave trough is
noted dropping south out of Alberta. Locally, the southwest flow has
helped set up a baroclinic zone just to our northwest, from eastern
Nebraska back into southwest Kansas.

Today through Saturday...the two troughs, the Four Corners and
Alberta, will begin to phase over the next 24 hours as the Alberta
trough drops into and interacts with the broader amplified pattern.
This will likely tighten up the baroclinic zone just to our
northwest today and tonight, with a strong possibility of snow
developing along and north of the front tonight. However, given the
positive tilt to the large Four Corners trough, we do not expect
this front to make any progress east until late tonight as a surface
low tracks northeast along the front. So, areas in central
Missouri back into east central Kansas will likely get another day
of pleasant temperatures out of this weather pattern with highs in
the 50s, but the far northwest corner of Missouri, and adjacent
areas of northeast Kansas, wont be so lucky as afternoon highs will
likely top out near 40 degrees. As for precipitation...saturation
sufficient to start forcing drops from the sky will likely begin
this afternoon, with patchy drizzle possible, but significant rain
chances will likely wait till late this afternoon or this evening as
the Alberta system merges with the larger trough, getting swept up
by the southwest flow. Have continued to be rather stingy with the
potential for snow overnight as model soundings and forecast surface
temperatures would not appear to support much, if any, snow outside
the extreme northwest corner of Missouri. Do have about an inch of
accumulation in a county or two in the far northwest of Missouri,
but do not expect any significant snow accumulations outside of
that. Otherwise, the cold front and the precipitable weather with
this system should be exiting to our east Saturday morning and
should take any lingering potential for precipitation with it by
noon Saturday.

Rest of the weekend and next work week...temperatures will be cool
and conditions will be dry. The Four Corners trough will finely
move east of us Sunday, resulting in a bit of locally zonal flow to
begin the work week with. This will allow the cool air that swept in
behind the front Saturday to linger across the region, keeping
conditions cool for the weekend and into the work week. However, our
cool temperatures will become down right cold by Tuesday and
Wednesday as a reinforcing shot of cold sweeps south from the
Canadian Plains. With a 1050+mb high forecast to sweep down the
front range of the Rockies next week, thoughts are that it will be
cold. Currently, model solutions point at Tuesday being the coldest
day next week, but it might be a toss-up with Wednesday, with highs
on those days ranging in the teens and 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Cold front has made it very close to MCI...near Fort Leavenworth in
fact...but it will slow down significantly over the next few hours
and may even nudge back northwest a bit. Therefore don`t expect
frontal passage into downtown KC until after sunset, but being so
close to MCI, wouldn`t be surprised if winds there took a brief turn
from the northwest over the next couple of hours. Front will surge
south later today with IFR ceilings and perhaps some light rain
behind it. Any snow should stay north of STJ.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 261748
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1148 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 431 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Post holiday weather across eastern Kansas and Missouri today will
start rather nice, but will deteriorate overnight with cooler
temperatures then prevailing through weekend into next week. Early
morning water vapor imagery shows a pronounced trough swinging
through the Four Corners region inducing a pleasant southwest flow
across the Southern and Central Plains. Another shortwave trough is
noted dropping south out of Alberta. Locally, the southwest flow has
helped set up a baroclinic zone just to our northwest, from eastern
Nebraska back into southwest Kansas.

Today through Saturday...the two troughs, the Four Corners and
Alberta, will begin to phase over the next 24 hours as the Alberta
trough drops into and interacts with the broader amplified pattern.
This will likely tighten up the baroclinic zone just to our
northwest today and tonight, with a strong possibility of snow
developing along and north of the front tonight. However, given the
positive tilt to the large Four Corners trough, we do not expect
this front to make any progress east until late tonight as a surface
low tracks northeast along the front. So, areas in central
Missouri back into east central Kansas will likely get another day
of pleasant temperatures out of this weather pattern with highs in
the 50s, but the far northwest corner of Missouri, and adjacent
areas of northeast Kansas, wont be so lucky as afternoon highs will
likely top out near 40 degrees. As for precipitation...saturation
sufficient to start forcing drops from the sky will likely begin
this afternoon, with patchy drizzle possible, but significant rain
chances will likely wait till late this afternoon or this evening as
the Alberta system merges with the larger trough, getting swept up
by the southwest flow. Have continued to be rather stingy with the
potential for snow overnight as model soundings and forecast surface
temperatures would not appear to support much, if any, snow outside
the extreme northwest corner of Missouri. Do have about an inch of
accumulation in a county or two in the far northwest of Missouri,
but do not expect any significant snow accumulations outside of
that. Otherwise, the cold front and the precipitable weather with
this system should be exiting to our east Saturday morning and
should take any lingering potential for precipitation with it by
noon Saturday.

Rest of the weekend and next work week...temperatures will be cool
and conditions will be dry. The Four Corners trough will finely
move east of us Sunday, resulting in a bit of locally zonal flow to
begin the work week with. This will allow the cool air that swept in
behind the front Saturday to linger across the region, keeping
conditions cool for the weekend and into the work week. However, our
cool temperatures will become down right cold by Tuesday and
Wednesday as a reinforcing shot of cold sweeps south from the
Canadian Plains. With a 1050+mb high forecast to sweep down the
front range of the Rockies next week, thoughts are that it will be
cold. Currently, model solutions point at Tuesday being the coldest
day next week, but it might be a toss-up with Wednesday, with highs
on those days ranging in the teens and 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Cold front has made it very close to MCI...near Fort Leavenworth in
fact...but it will slow down significantly over the next few hours
and may even nudge back northwest a bit. Therefore don`t expect
frontal passage into downtown KC until after sunset, but being so
close to MCI, wouldn`t be surprised if winds there took a brief turn
from the northwest over the next couple of hours. Front will surge
south later today with IFR ceilings and perhaps some light rain
behind it. Any snow should stay north of STJ.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Hawblitzel






000
FXUS63 KSGF 261746 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1146 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Saturday night)

Southerly breezes persisted overnight as low pressure expanded
across the Plains. Warmer temperatures resulted with lows only
falling into the 40s. Temperatures today should be similar to
yesterday with highs in the 50s. We could experience some high 50s
in areas out toward Joplin and Pittsburg.

These south winds were also bringing an increase in moisture,
which will set the stage for some light rainfall starting late this
afternoon out near the Kansas and Missouri border.

For locations along the I-44 corridor, the better chances for
light rain will occur overnight tonight, with light rain tapering
from west to east Saturday morning.

For areas of south central Missouri, this rain could linger
through Saturday and into Saturday night, as upper level flow
continues from the southwest the entire weekend.

Rainfall amounts will range from 0.15 to 0.40, with the better
amounts occurring over south central Missouri.

A cold front will shift through southern Missouri Saturday,
bringing a Canadian air mass with it.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)

Dry weather and seasonal temperatures are expected next work week.
Upper flow will be fast and zonal, as northerly trajectories
continue at the surface.

Moisture over the Gulf of Mexico should remain suppressed near coastal
areas under this pattern, giving confidence to an extended period
of dry weather.

Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate the approach of a vigorous storm
system late in the week toward next Friday. Given the storm
track from a perfect prog stand point, the Ozarks would receive
more rain than anything. Chances for severe storms would occur in
the deep south, as heavy snow would be favored over the corn belt.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Challenging forecast over the next 24 hours. Moisture on the rise
across the area and this will lead to the development, expansion
and lowering of stratus this afternoon into this evening. Just
starting to see signs of high end MVFR/low end VFR developing to
the southwest of the TAF sites, and this should continue to spread
northeastward. Timing is still a bit of a mess so have covered
onset with TEMPO groups. By late this afternoon and this evening,
stratus will be entrenched and lowering, eventually to IFR. Light
rain showers and drizzle will develop with the lowering cloud
bases as southerly winds continue. Potential for LIFR exists where
drizzle is heaviest. Cold front will enter from the northwest
late tonight into Saturday. IFR/low end MVFR will persist through
the end of the TAF cycle.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan








000
FXUS63 KSGF 261746 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1146 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Saturday night)

Southerly breezes persisted overnight as low pressure expanded
across the Plains. Warmer temperatures resulted with lows only
falling into the 40s. Temperatures today should be similar to
yesterday with highs in the 50s. We could experience some high 50s
in areas out toward Joplin and Pittsburg.

These south winds were also bringing an increase in moisture,
which will set the stage for some light rainfall starting late this
afternoon out near the Kansas and Missouri border.

For locations along the I-44 corridor, the better chances for
light rain will occur overnight tonight, with light rain tapering
from west to east Saturday morning.

For areas of south central Missouri, this rain could linger
through Saturday and into Saturday night, as upper level flow
continues from the southwest the entire weekend.

Rainfall amounts will range from 0.15 to 0.40, with the better
amounts occurring over south central Missouri.

A cold front will shift through southern Missouri Saturday,
bringing a Canadian air mass with it.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)

Dry weather and seasonal temperatures are expected next work week.
Upper flow will be fast and zonal, as northerly trajectories
continue at the surface.

Moisture over the Gulf of Mexico should remain suppressed near coastal
areas under this pattern, giving confidence to an extended period
of dry weather.

Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate the approach of a vigorous storm
system late in the week toward next Friday. Given the storm
track from a perfect prog stand point, the Ozarks would receive
more rain than anything. Chances for severe storms would occur in
the deep south, as heavy snow would be favored over the corn belt.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Challenging forecast over the next 24 hours. Moisture on the rise
across the area and this will lead to the development, expansion
and lowering of stratus this afternoon into this evening. Just
starting to see signs of high end MVFR/low end VFR developing to
the southwest of the TAF sites, and this should continue to spread
northeastward. Timing is still a bit of a mess so have covered
onset with TEMPO groups. By late this afternoon and this evening,
stratus will be entrenched and lowering, eventually to IFR. Light
rain showers and drizzle will develop with the lowering cloud
bases as southerly winds continue. Potential for LIFR exists where
drizzle is heaviest. Cold front will enter from the northwest
late tonight into Saturday. IFR/low end MVFR will persist through
the end of the TAF cycle.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan








000
FXUS63 KSGF 261746 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1146 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Saturday night)

Southerly breezes persisted overnight as low pressure expanded
across the Plains. Warmer temperatures resulted with lows only
falling into the 40s. Temperatures today should be similar to
yesterday with highs in the 50s. We could experience some high 50s
in areas out toward Joplin and Pittsburg.

These south winds were also bringing an increase in moisture,
which will set the stage for some light rainfall starting late this
afternoon out near the Kansas and Missouri border.

For locations along the I-44 corridor, the better chances for
light rain will occur overnight tonight, with light rain tapering
from west to east Saturday morning.

For areas of south central Missouri, this rain could linger
through Saturday and into Saturday night, as upper level flow
continues from the southwest the entire weekend.

Rainfall amounts will range from 0.15 to 0.40, with the better
amounts occurring over south central Missouri.

A cold front will shift through southern Missouri Saturday,
bringing a Canadian air mass with it.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)

Dry weather and seasonal temperatures are expected next work week.
Upper flow will be fast and zonal, as northerly trajectories
continue at the surface.

Moisture over the Gulf of Mexico should remain suppressed near coastal
areas under this pattern, giving confidence to an extended period
of dry weather.

Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate the approach of a vigorous storm
system late in the week toward next Friday. Given the storm
track from a perfect prog stand point, the Ozarks would receive
more rain than anything. Chances for severe storms would occur in
the deep south, as heavy snow would be favored over the corn belt.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Challenging forecast over the next 24 hours. Moisture on the rise
across the area and this will lead to the development, expansion
and lowering of stratus this afternoon into this evening. Just
starting to see signs of high end MVFR/low end VFR developing to
the southwest of the TAF sites, and this should continue to spread
northeastward. Timing is still a bit of a mess so have covered
onset with TEMPO groups. By late this afternoon and this evening,
stratus will be entrenched and lowering, eventually to IFR. Light
rain showers and drizzle will develop with the lowering cloud
bases as southerly winds continue. Potential for LIFR exists where
drizzle is heaviest. Cold front will enter from the northwest
late tonight into Saturday. IFR/low end MVFR will persist through
the end of the TAF cycle.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan








000
FXUS63 KSGF 261746 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1146 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Saturday night)

Southerly breezes persisted overnight as low pressure expanded
across the Plains. Warmer temperatures resulted with lows only
falling into the 40s. Temperatures today should be similar to
yesterday with highs in the 50s. We could experience some high 50s
in areas out toward Joplin and Pittsburg.

These south winds were also bringing an increase in moisture,
which will set the stage for some light rainfall starting late this
afternoon out near the Kansas and Missouri border.

For locations along the I-44 corridor, the better chances for
light rain will occur overnight tonight, with light rain tapering
from west to east Saturday morning.

For areas of south central Missouri, this rain could linger
through Saturday and into Saturday night, as upper level flow
continues from the southwest the entire weekend.

Rainfall amounts will range from 0.15 to 0.40, with the better
amounts occurring over south central Missouri.

A cold front will shift through southern Missouri Saturday,
bringing a Canadian air mass with it.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)

Dry weather and seasonal temperatures are expected next work week.
Upper flow will be fast and zonal, as northerly trajectories
continue at the surface.

Moisture over the Gulf of Mexico should remain suppressed near coastal
areas under this pattern, giving confidence to an extended period
of dry weather.

Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate the approach of a vigorous storm
system late in the week toward next Friday. Given the storm
track from a perfect prog stand point, the Ozarks would receive
more rain than anything. Chances for severe storms would occur in
the deep south, as heavy snow would be favored over the corn belt.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Challenging forecast over the next 24 hours. Moisture on the rise
across the area and this will lead to the development, expansion
and lowering of stratus this afternoon into this evening. Just
starting to see signs of high end MVFR/low end VFR developing to
the southwest of the TAF sites, and this should continue to spread
northeastward. Timing is still a bit of a mess so have covered
onset with TEMPO groups. By late this afternoon and this evening,
stratus will be entrenched and lowering, eventually to IFR. Light
rain showers and drizzle will develop with the lowering cloud
bases as southerly winds continue. Potential for LIFR exists where
drizzle is heaviest. Cold front will enter from the northwest
late tonight into Saturday. IFR/low end MVFR will persist through
the end of the TAF cycle.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan








000
FXUS63 KLSX 261157
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
557 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 347 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

With a cold front located upstream and poised to move through the
area tomorrow, it appears that the unseasonably warm December
weather will be coming to an end during the upcoming weekend.
However, the warm weather of Christmas Day will certainly linger
into today, with highs in the low to mid 50s. These readings will
be some 10-15 degrees above average, and will make it feel more
like a typical day in late November or early March. Clouds should
start increasing this afternoon due to increasing moisture and
lift ahead of a low pressure system.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 347 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

(Tonight through Sunday)

Primary challenge heading into the weekend is pinning down PoP
trends.  Increasing southerly low level flow that commences today
and intensifies tonight will certainly be transporting decent low
level moisture into the area, with forecast soundings from both the
NAM and GFS indicating saturation occurring in the lowest 5-10kft by
Saturday morning.  However, mid level moisture is much more scant
and lift well ahead of the approaching front doesn`t appear to be
all that intense and/or focused, so am wondering if the precip
threat based on 00z MOS PoPs and some of QPF output is misleading.

In general, expect a increasing threat of rain overnight from west
to east as the moisture and lift slowly increases across the
region.  Have gone a bit higher with PoPs in our NW counties than in
current forecast, as model consensus indicates an increase of mid
level moisture in this area along with somewhat better lift tied to
approaching front.  Have also upped late night PoPs in our far south
with some fairly strong 85h moisture advection indicated in this
area by 12z.

The precip that does form overnight will wind down from NW to SE on
Saturday and Saturday evening, but with upper trof lagging cold
front by a considerable distance am hesitant to end the precip too
quickly.  With the low level cold air surging south, it`s possible
that there could be some ptype issues if the precip can linger long
enough by the time the freezing level drops to critical levels.
Right now it looks like the Schmocker Rule will be in effect with
most of the precip shutting down before AMS cools enough to support
snow, but due to the lag of the upper trof have added a bit of a
rain/snow mix just as the precip comes to an end.

Temperatures tonight and into early Saturday will certainly be on
the mild side due to the fairly strong and persistent southerly
winds, but the mercury will be taking a tumble during the day on
Saturday and into Saturday evening as the cold front pushes across
the area. Have attempted to reflect this thinking with tonight`s
lows and Saturday`s highs derived from a 3 hourly, non-diurnal
temp trend in the gridded data set.

This colder air will mean a return of more "typical" late December
temperatures by Sunday, with highs primarily in the 30s along with a
fair amount of sunshine.

(Monday-Thursday)

Medium range solutions in fairly good agreement in developing a W-E
trof from S Canada into the western U.S. in the early part of next
week.  The trof is then forecast to sweep across the central
CONUS by midweek while energy in the base of the trof breaks off and
forms a cut-off low over CA.  Passage of the trof in our area should
usher in some arctic air in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame, but
temps should moderate a bit by Thursday as the trof and coldest air
works into the eastern U.S.

Much of the medium range looks dry with limited dynamics and
moisture progged across area.  However, this could be changing by
the end of the medium range period (next Friday) as the upper low
over CA opens up and is ejected eastward.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 534 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

Specifics for KUIN, KCOU: VFR conditions are expected for the
first 0-6 hours of the TAF period before increasing moisture leads
to lowering cigs after 18z. Rain will spread across MO/IL after
27/00z, and the additional moisture should cause ceilings to fall
to IFR overnight. Just beyond the end of the valid TAF period, a
cold front will move through the area and cause a wind shift.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: VFR conditions are expected for
the first 0-6 hours of the TAF period before increasing moisture
leads to lowering cigs (likely MVFR) after 18-21z. Rain will
spread eastward towards the terminals after 27/03z. IFR cigs are
possible after 27/09z depending on the extent of rain coverage.
Expect a wind shift around 27/18z when a cold front passes through
the area. BUFKIT profiles depict marginal LLWS conditions between
00z and 09z.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 261157
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
557 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 347 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

With a cold front located upstream and poised to move through the
area tomorrow, it appears that the unseasonably warm December
weather will be coming to an end during the upcoming weekend.
However, the warm weather of Christmas Day will certainly linger
into today, with highs in the low to mid 50s. These readings will
be some 10-15 degrees above average, and will make it feel more
like a typical day in late November or early March. Clouds should
start increasing this afternoon due to increasing moisture and
lift ahead of a low pressure system.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 347 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

(Tonight through Sunday)

Primary challenge heading into the weekend is pinning down PoP
trends.  Increasing southerly low level flow that commences today
and intensifies tonight will certainly be transporting decent low
level moisture into the area, with forecast soundings from both the
NAM and GFS indicating saturation occurring in the lowest 5-10kft by
Saturday morning.  However, mid level moisture is much more scant
and lift well ahead of the approaching front doesn`t appear to be
all that intense and/or focused, so am wondering if the precip
threat based on 00z MOS PoPs and some of QPF output is misleading.

In general, expect a increasing threat of rain overnight from west
to east as the moisture and lift slowly increases across the
region.  Have gone a bit higher with PoPs in our NW counties than in
current forecast, as model consensus indicates an increase of mid
level moisture in this area along with somewhat better lift tied to
approaching front.  Have also upped late night PoPs in our far south
with some fairly strong 85h moisture advection indicated in this
area by 12z.

The precip that does form overnight will wind down from NW to SE on
Saturday and Saturday evening, but with upper trof lagging cold
front by a considerable distance am hesitant to end the precip too
quickly.  With the low level cold air surging south, it`s possible
that there could be some ptype issues if the precip can linger long
enough by the time the freezing level drops to critical levels.
Right now it looks like the Schmocker Rule will be in effect with
most of the precip shutting down before AMS cools enough to support
snow, but due to the lag of the upper trof have added a bit of a
rain/snow mix just as the precip comes to an end.

Temperatures tonight and into early Saturday will certainly be on
the mild side due to the fairly strong and persistent southerly
winds, but the mercury will be taking a tumble during the day on
Saturday and into Saturday evening as the cold front pushes across
the area. Have attempted to reflect this thinking with tonight`s
lows and Saturday`s highs derived from a 3 hourly, non-diurnal
temp trend in the gridded data set.

This colder air will mean a return of more "typical" late December
temperatures by Sunday, with highs primarily in the 30s along with a
fair amount of sunshine.

(Monday-Thursday)

Medium range solutions in fairly good agreement in developing a W-E
trof from S Canada into the western U.S. in the early part of next
week.  The trof is then forecast to sweep across the central
CONUS by midweek while energy in the base of the trof breaks off and
forms a cut-off low over CA.  Passage of the trof in our area should
usher in some arctic air in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame, but
temps should moderate a bit by Thursday as the trof and coldest air
works into the eastern U.S.

Much of the medium range looks dry with limited dynamics and
moisture progged across area.  However, this could be changing by
the end of the medium range period (next Friday) as the upper low
over CA opens up and is ejected eastward.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 534 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

Specifics for KUIN, KCOU: VFR conditions are expected for the
first 0-6 hours of the TAF period before increasing moisture leads
to lowering cigs after 18z. Rain will spread across MO/IL after
27/00z, and the additional moisture should cause ceilings to fall
to IFR overnight. Just beyond the end of the valid TAF period, a
cold front will move through the area and cause a wind shift.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: VFR conditions are expected for
the first 0-6 hours of the TAF period before increasing moisture
leads to lowering cigs (likely MVFR) after 18-21z. Rain will
spread eastward towards the terminals after 27/03z. IFR cigs are
possible after 27/09z depending on the extent of rain coverage.
Expect a wind shift around 27/18z when a cold front passes through
the area. BUFKIT profiles depict marginal LLWS conditions between
00z and 09z.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 261157
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
557 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 347 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

With a cold front located upstream and poised to move through the
area tomorrow, it appears that the unseasonably warm December
weather will be coming to an end during the upcoming weekend.
However, the warm weather of Christmas Day will certainly linger
into today, with highs in the low to mid 50s. These readings will
be some 10-15 degrees above average, and will make it feel more
like a typical day in late November or early March. Clouds should
start increasing this afternoon due to increasing moisture and
lift ahead of a low pressure system.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 347 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

(Tonight through Sunday)

Primary challenge heading into the weekend is pinning down PoP
trends.  Increasing southerly low level flow that commences today
and intensifies tonight will certainly be transporting decent low
level moisture into the area, with forecast soundings from both the
NAM and GFS indicating saturation occurring in the lowest 5-10kft by
Saturday morning.  However, mid level moisture is much more scant
and lift well ahead of the approaching front doesn`t appear to be
all that intense and/or focused, so am wondering if the precip
threat based on 00z MOS PoPs and some of QPF output is misleading.

In general, expect a increasing threat of rain overnight from west
to east as the moisture and lift slowly increases across the
region.  Have gone a bit higher with PoPs in our NW counties than in
current forecast, as model consensus indicates an increase of mid
level moisture in this area along with somewhat better lift tied to
approaching front.  Have also upped late night PoPs in our far south
with some fairly strong 85h moisture advection indicated in this
area by 12z.

The precip that does form overnight will wind down from NW to SE on
Saturday and Saturday evening, but with upper trof lagging cold
front by a considerable distance am hesitant to end the precip too
quickly.  With the low level cold air surging south, it`s possible
that there could be some ptype issues if the precip can linger long
enough by the time the freezing level drops to critical levels.
Right now it looks like the Schmocker Rule will be in effect with
most of the precip shutting down before AMS cools enough to support
snow, but due to the lag of the upper trof have added a bit of a
rain/snow mix just as the precip comes to an end.

Temperatures tonight and into early Saturday will certainly be on
the mild side due to the fairly strong and persistent southerly
winds, but the mercury will be taking a tumble during the day on
Saturday and into Saturday evening as the cold front pushes across
the area. Have attempted to reflect this thinking with tonight`s
lows and Saturday`s highs derived from a 3 hourly, non-diurnal
temp trend in the gridded data set.

This colder air will mean a return of more "typical" late December
temperatures by Sunday, with highs primarily in the 30s along with a
fair amount of sunshine.

(Monday-Thursday)

Medium range solutions in fairly good agreement in developing a W-E
trof from S Canada into the western U.S. in the early part of next
week.  The trof is then forecast to sweep across the central
CONUS by midweek while energy in the base of the trof breaks off and
forms a cut-off low over CA.  Passage of the trof in our area should
usher in some arctic air in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame, but
temps should moderate a bit by Thursday as the trof and coldest air
works into the eastern U.S.

Much of the medium range looks dry with limited dynamics and
moisture progged across area.  However, this could be changing by
the end of the medium range period (next Friday) as the upper low
over CA opens up and is ejected eastward.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 534 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

Specifics for KUIN, KCOU: VFR conditions are expected for the
first 0-6 hours of the TAF period before increasing moisture leads
to lowering cigs after 18z. Rain will spread across MO/IL after
27/00z, and the additional moisture should cause ceilings to fall
to IFR overnight. Just beyond the end of the valid TAF period, a
cold front will move through the area and cause a wind shift.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: VFR conditions are expected for
the first 0-6 hours of the TAF period before increasing moisture
leads to lowering cigs (likely MVFR) after 18-21z. Rain will
spread eastward towards the terminals after 27/03z. IFR cigs are
possible after 27/09z depending on the extent of rain coverage.
Expect a wind shift around 27/18z when a cold front passes through
the area. BUFKIT profiles depict marginal LLWS conditions between
00z and 09z.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 261157
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
557 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 347 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

With a cold front located upstream and poised to move through the
area tomorrow, it appears that the unseasonably warm December
weather will be coming to an end during the upcoming weekend.
However, the warm weather of Christmas Day will certainly linger
into today, with highs in the low to mid 50s. These readings will
be some 10-15 degrees above average, and will make it feel more
like a typical day in late November or early March. Clouds should
start increasing this afternoon due to increasing moisture and
lift ahead of a low pressure system.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 347 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

(Tonight through Sunday)

Primary challenge heading into the weekend is pinning down PoP
trends.  Increasing southerly low level flow that commences today
and intensifies tonight will certainly be transporting decent low
level moisture into the area, with forecast soundings from both the
NAM and GFS indicating saturation occurring in the lowest 5-10kft by
Saturday morning.  However, mid level moisture is much more scant
and lift well ahead of the approaching front doesn`t appear to be
all that intense and/or focused, so am wondering if the precip
threat based on 00z MOS PoPs and some of QPF output is misleading.

In general, expect a increasing threat of rain overnight from west
to east as the moisture and lift slowly increases across the
region.  Have gone a bit higher with PoPs in our NW counties than in
current forecast, as model consensus indicates an increase of mid
level moisture in this area along with somewhat better lift tied to
approaching front.  Have also upped late night PoPs in our far south
with some fairly strong 85h moisture advection indicated in this
area by 12z.

The precip that does form overnight will wind down from NW to SE on
Saturday and Saturday evening, but with upper trof lagging cold
front by a considerable distance am hesitant to end the precip too
quickly.  With the low level cold air surging south, it`s possible
that there could be some ptype issues if the precip can linger long
enough by the time the freezing level drops to critical levels.
Right now it looks like the Schmocker Rule will be in effect with
most of the precip shutting down before AMS cools enough to support
snow, but due to the lag of the upper trof have added a bit of a
rain/snow mix just as the precip comes to an end.

Temperatures tonight and into early Saturday will certainly be on
the mild side due to the fairly strong and persistent southerly
winds, but the mercury will be taking a tumble during the day on
Saturday and into Saturday evening as the cold front pushes across
the area. Have attempted to reflect this thinking with tonight`s
lows and Saturday`s highs derived from a 3 hourly, non-diurnal
temp trend in the gridded data set.

This colder air will mean a return of more "typical" late December
temperatures by Sunday, with highs primarily in the 30s along with a
fair amount of sunshine.

(Monday-Thursday)

Medium range solutions in fairly good agreement in developing a W-E
trof from S Canada into the western U.S. in the early part of next
week.  The trof is then forecast to sweep across the central
CONUS by midweek while energy in the base of the trof breaks off and
forms a cut-off low over CA.  Passage of the trof in our area should
usher in some arctic air in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame, but
temps should moderate a bit by Thursday as the trof and coldest air
works into the eastern U.S.

Much of the medium range looks dry with limited dynamics and
moisture progged across area.  However, this could be changing by
the end of the medium range period (next Friday) as the upper low
over CA opens up and is ejected eastward.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 534 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

Specifics for KUIN, KCOU: VFR conditions are expected for the
first 0-6 hours of the TAF period before increasing moisture leads
to lowering cigs after 18z. Rain will spread across MO/IL after
27/00z, and the additional moisture should cause ceilings to fall
to IFR overnight. Just beyond the end of the valid TAF period, a
cold front will move through the area and cause a wind shift.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: VFR conditions are expected for
the first 0-6 hours of the TAF period before increasing moisture
leads to lowering cigs (likely MVFR) after 18-21z. Rain will
spread eastward towards the terminals after 27/03z. IFR cigs are
possible after 27/09z depending on the extent of rain coverage.
Expect a wind shift around 27/18z when a cold front passes through
the area. BUFKIT profiles depict marginal LLWS conditions between
00z and 09z.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 261146
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
546 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 431 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Post holiday weather across eastern Kansas and Missouri today will
start rather nice, but will deteriorate overnight with cooler
temperatures then prevailing through weekend into next week. Early
morning water vapor imagery shows a pronounced trough swinging
through the Four Corners region inducing a pleasant southwest flow
across the Southern and Central Plains. Another shortwave trough is
noted dropping south out of Alberta. Locally, the southwest flow has
helped set up a baroclinic zone just to our northwest, from eastern
Nebraska back into southwest Kansas.

Today through Saturday...the two troughs, the Four Corners and
Alberta, will begin to phase over the next 24 hours as the Alberta
trough drops into and interacts with the broader amplified pattern.
This will likely tighten up the baroclinic zone just to our
northwest today and tonight, with a strong possibility of snow
developing along and north of the front tonight. However, given the
positive tilt to the large Four Corners trough, we do not expect
this front to make any progress east until late tonight as a surface
low tracks northeast along the front. So, areas in central
Missouri back into east central Kansas will likely get another day
of pleasant temperatures out of this weather pattern with highs in
the 50s, but the far northwest corner of Missouri, and adjacent
areas of northeast Kansas, wont be so lucky as afternoon highs will
likely top out near 40 degrees. As for precipitation...saturation
sufficient to start forcing drops from the sky will likely begin
this afternoon, with patchy drizzle possible, but significant rain
chances will likely wait till late this afternoon or this evening as
the Alberta system merges with the larger trough, getting swept up
by the southwest flow. Have continued to be rather stingy with the
potential for snow overnight as model soundings and forecast surface
temperatures would not appear to support much, if any, snow outside
the extreme northwest corner of Missouri. Do have about an inch of
accumulation in a county or two in the far northwest of Missouri,
but do not expect any significant snow accumulations outside of
that. Otherwise, the cold front and the precipitable weather with
this system should be exiting to our east Saturday morning and
should take any lingering potential for precipitation with it by
noon Saturday.

Rest of the weekend and next work week...temperatures will be cool
and conditions will be dry. The Four Corners trough will finely
move east of us Sunday, resulting in a bit of locally zonal flow to
begin the work week with. This will allow the cool air that swept in
behind the front Saturday to linger across the region, keeping
conditions cool for the weekend and into the work week. However, our
cool temperatures will become down right cold by Tuesday and
Wednesday as a reinforcing shot of cold sweeps south from the
Canadian Plains. With a 1050+mb high forecast to sweep down the
front range of the Rockies next week, thoughts are that it will be
cold. Currently, model solutions point at Tuesday being the coldest
day next week, but it might be a toss-up with Wednesday, with highs
on those days ranging in the teens and 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 546 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Southerly winds and VFR conditions will great the terminals today,
though a cold front near by will provide focus for rain and possibly
a little snow overnight into Saturday morning. Patchy drizzle will
likely develop this afternoon as the atmosphere saturates, with rain
developing later in the evening and overnight hours as a front slowly
settles farther south into Missouri. Precipitation types may mix
between rain and snow late tonight and early Saturday morning; though
the only terminal forecast to have all snow is the fare north KSTJ
site with no accumulations expected at this time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KEAX 261146
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
546 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 431 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Post holiday weather across eastern Kansas and Missouri today will
start rather nice, but will deteriorate overnight with cooler
temperatures then prevailing through weekend into next week. Early
morning water vapor imagery shows a pronounced trough swinging
through the Four Corners region inducing a pleasant southwest flow
across the Southern and Central Plains. Another shortwave trough is
noted dropping south out of Alberta. Locally, the southwest flow has
helped set up a baroclinic zone just to our northwest, from eastern
Nebraska back into southwest Kansas.

Today through Saturday...the two troughs, the Four Corners and
Alberta, will begin to phase over the next 24 hours as the Alberta
trough drops into and interacts with the broader amplified pattern.
This will likely tighten up the baroclinic zone just to our
northwest today and tonight, with a strong possibility of snow
developing along and north of the front tonight. However, given the
positive tilt to the large Four Corners trough, we do not expect
this front to make any progress east until late tonight as a surface
low tracks northeast along the front. So, areas in central
Missouri back into east central Kansas will likely get another day
of pleasant temperatures out of this weather pattern with highs in
the 50s, but the far northwest corner of Missouri, and adjacent
areas of northeast Kansas, wont be so lucky as afternoon highs will
likely top out near 40 degrees. As for precipitation...saturation
sufficient to start forcing drops from the sky will likely begin
this afternoon, with patchy drizzle possible, but significant rain
chances will likely wait till late this afternoon or this evening as
the Alberta system merges with the larger trough, getting swept up
by the southwest flow. Have continued to be rather stingy with the
potential for snow overnight as model soundings and forecast surface
temperatures would not appear to support much, if any, snow outside
the extreme northwest corner of Missouri. Do have about an inch of
accumulation in a county or two in the far northwest of Missouri,
but do not expect any significant snow accumulations outside of
that. Otherwise, the cold front and the precipitable weather with
this system should be exiting to our east Saturday morning and
should take any lingering potential for precipitation with it by
noon Saturday.

Rest of the weekend and next work week...temperatures will be cool
and conditions will be dry. The Four Corners trough will finely
move east of us Sunday, resulting in a bit of locally zonal flow to
begin the work week with. This will allow the cool air that swept in
behind the front Saturday to linger across the region, keeping
conditions cool for the weekend and into the work week. However, our
cool temperatures will become down right cold by Tuesday and
Wednesday as a reinforcing shot of cold sweeps south from the
Canadian Plains. With a 1050+mb high forecast to sweep down the
front range of the Rockies next week, thoughts are that it will be
cold. Currently, model solutions point at Tuesday being the coldest
day next week, but it might be a toss-up with Wednesday, with highs
on those days ranging in the teens and 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 546 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Southerly winds and VFR conditions will great the terminals today,
though a cold front near by will provide focus for rain and possibly
a little snow overnight into Saturday morning. Patchy drizzle will
likely develop this afternoon as the atmosphere saturates, with rain
developing later in the evening and overnight hours as a front slowly
settles farther south into Missouri. Precipitation types may mix
between rain and snow late tonight and early Saturday morning; though
the only terminal forecast to have all snow is the fare north KSTJ
site with no accumulations expected at this time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KSGF 261141
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
541 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Saturday night)

Southerly breezes persisted overnight as low pressure expanded
across the Plains. Warmer temperatures resulted with lows only
falling into the 40s. Temperatures today should be similar to
yesterday with highs in the 50s. We could experience some high 50s
in areas out toward Joplin and Pittsburg.

These south winds were also bringing an increase in moisture,
which will set the stage for some light rainfall starting late this
afternoon out near the Kansas and Missouri border.

For locations along the I-44 corridor, the better chances for
light rain will occur overnight tonight, with light rain tapering
from west to east Saturday morning.

For areas of south central Missouri, this rain could linger
through Saturday and into Saturday night, as upper level flow
continues from the southwest the entire weekend.

Rainfall amounts will range from 0.15 to 0.40, with the better
amounts occurring over south central Missouri.

A cold front will shift through southern Missouri Saturday,
bringing a Canadian air mass with it.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)

Dry weather and seasonal temperatures are expected next work week.
Upper flow will be fast and zonal, as northerly trajectories
continue at the surface.

Moisture over the Gulf of Mexico should remain suppressed near coastal
areas under this pattern, giving confidence to an extended period
of dry weather.

Both the GFS and ECWMF indicate the approach of a vigorous storm
system late in the week toward next Friday. Given the storm
track from a perfect prog stand point, the Ozarks would receive
more rain than anything. Chances for severe storms would occur in
the deep south, as heavy snow would be favored over the corn belt.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 534 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG airports: Moisture is moving north into the
region ahead of a cold front. Initially vfr conditions will lower
into the mvfr cat as moisture deepens early in the taf period. The
front will only make slow eastward progress, reaching KJLN late in
the taf period. SREF guidance and progged soundings indicate a
good chance for IFR cat ceilings along with some drizzle or light
rain, mostly after 27/00z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KSGF 261141
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
541 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Saturday night)

Southerly breezes persisted overnight as low pressure expanded
across the Plains. Warmer temperatures resulted with lows only
falling into the 40s. Temperatures today should be similar to
yesterday with highs in the 50s. We could experience some high 50s
in areas out toward Joplin and Pittsburg.

These south winds were also bringing an increase in moisture,
which will set the stage for some light rainfall starting late this
afternoon out near the Kansas and Missouri border.

For locations along the I-44 corridor, the better chances for
light rain will occur overnight tonight, with light rain tapering
from west to east Saturday morning.

For areas of south central Missouri, this rain could linger
through Saturday and into Saturday night, as upper level flow
continues from the southwest the entire weekend.

Rainfall amounts will range from 0.15 to 0.40, with the better
amounts occurring over south central Missouri.

A cold front will shift through southern Missouri Saturday,
bringing a Canadian air mass with it.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)

Dry weather and seasonal temperatures are expected next work week.
Upper flow will be fast and zonal, as northerly trajectories
continue at the surface.

Moisture over the Gulf of Mexico should remain suppressed near coastal
areas under this pattern, giving confidence to an extended period
of dry weather.

Both the GFS and ECWMF indicate the approach of a vigorous storm
system late in the week toward next Friday. Given the storm
track from a perfect prog stand point, the Ozarks would receive
more rain than anything. Chances for severe storms would occur in
the deep south, as heavy snow would be favored over the corn belt.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 534 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG airports: Moisture is moving north into the
region ahead of a cold front. Initially vfr conditions will lower
into the mvfr cat as moisture deepens early in the taf period. The
front will only make slow eastward progress, reaching KJLN late in
the taf period. SREF guidance and progged soundings indicate a
good chance for IFR cat ceilings along with some drizzle or light
rain, mostly after 27/00z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KEAX 261035
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
435 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 431 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Post holiday weather across eastern Kansas and Missouri today will
start rather nice, but will deteriorate overnight with cooler
temperatures then prevailing through weekend into next week. Early
morning water vapor imagery shows a pronounced trough swinging
through the Four Corners region inducing a pleasant southwest flow
across the Southern and Central Plains. Another shortwave trough is
noted dropping south out of Alberta. Locally, the southwest flow has
helped set up a baroclinic zone just to our northwest, from eastern
Nebraska back into southwest Kansas.

Today through Saturday...the two troughs, the Four Corners and
Alberta, will begin to phase over the next 24 hours as the Alberta
trough drops into and interacts with the broader amplified pattern.
This will likely tighten up the baroclinic zone just to our
northwest today and tonight, with a strong possibility of snow
developing along and north of the front tonight. However, given the
positive tilt to the large Four Corners trough, we do not expect
this front to make any progress east until late tonight as a surface
low tracks northeast along the front. So, areas in central
Missouri back into east central Kansas will likely get another day
of pleasant temperatures out of this weather pattern with highs in
the 50s, but the far northwest corner of Missouri, and adjacent
areas of northeast Kansas, wont be so lucky as afternoon highs will
likely top out near 40 degrees. As for precipitation...saturation
sufficient to start forcing drops from the sky will likely begin
this afternoon, with patchy drizzle possible, but significant rain
chances will likely wait till late this afternoon or this evening as
the Alberta system merges with the larger trough, getting swept up
by the southwest flow. Have continued to be rather stingy with the
potential for snow overnight as model soundings and forecast surface
temperatures would not appear to support much, if any, snow outside
the extreme northwest corner of Missouri. Do have about an inch of
accumulation in a county or two in the far northwest of Missouri,
but do not expect any significant snow accumulations outside of
that. Otherwise, the cold front and the precipitable weather with
this system should be exiting to our east Saturday morning and
should take any lingering potential for precipitation with it by
noon Saturday.

Rest of the weekend and next work week...temperatures will be cool
and conditions will be dry. The Four Corners trough will finely
move east of us Sunday, resulting in a bit of locally zonal flow to
begin the work week with. This will allow the cool air that swept in
behind the front Saturday to linger across the region, keeping
conditions cool for the weekend and into the work week. However, our
cool temperatures will become down right cold by Tuesday and
Wednesday as a reinforcing shot of cold sweeps south from the
Canadian Plains. With a 1050+mb high forecast to sweep down the
front range of the Rockies next week, thoughts are that it will be
cold. Currently, model solutions point at Tuesday being the coldest
day next week, but it might be a toss-up with Wednesday, with highs
on those days ranging in the teens and 20s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Increased SSW winds will remain in place overnight with
ceilings gradually lowering ahead of a cold front. Expecting to
remain VFR through early Friday afternoon, after which point will see
a period of MVFR ceilings around the 2kft mark. The timing of the
frontal passage continues to look like a 00Z arrival. Once the
boundary pushes through, will likely see liquid precipitation mixed
in with some fog. As of now, ceilings look to remain MVFR through the
end of the forecast period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KEAX 261035
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
435 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 431 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Post holiday weather across eastern Kansas and Missouri today will
start rather nice, but will deteriorate overnight with cooler
temperatures then prevailing through weekend into next week. Early
morning water vapor imagery shows a pronounced trough swinging
through the Four Corners region inducing a pleasant southwest flow
across the Southern and Central Plains. Another shortwave trough is
noted dropping south out of Alberta. Locally, the southwest flow has
helped set up a baroclinic zone just to our northwest, from eastern
Nebraska back into southwest Kansas.

Today through Saturday...the two troughs, the Four Corners and
Alberta, will begin to phase over the next 24 hours as the Alberta
trough drops into and interacts with the broader amplified pattern.
This will likely tighten up the baroclinic zone just to our
northwest today and tonight, with a strong possibility of snow
developing along and north of the front tonight. However, given the
positive tilt to the large Four Corners trough, we do not expect
this front to make any progress east until late tonight as a surface
low tracks northeast along the front. So, areas in central
Missouri back into east central Kansas will likely get another day
of pleasant temperatures out of this weather pattern with highs in
the 50s, but the far northwest corner of Missouri, and adjacent
areas of northeast Kansas, wont be so lucky as afternoon highs will
likely top out near 40 degrees. As for precipitation...saturation
sufficient to start forcing drops from the sky will likely begin
this afternoon, with patchy drizzle possible, but significant rain
chances will likely wait till late this afternoon or this evening as
the Alberta system merges with the larger trough, getting swept up
by the southwest flow. Have continued to be rather stingy with the
potential for snow overnight as model soundings and forecast surface
temperatures would not appear to support much, if any, snow outside
the extreme northwest corner of Missouri. Do have about an inch of
accumulation in a county or two in the far northwest of Missouri,
but do not expect any significant snow accumulations outside of
that. Otherwise, the cold front and the precipitable weather with
this system should be exiting to our east Saturday morning and
should take any lingering potential for precipitation with it by
noon Saturday.

Rest of the weekend and next work week...temperatures will be cool
and conditions will be dry. The Four Corners trough will finely
move east of us Sunday, resulting in a bit of locally zonal flow to
begin the work week with. This will allow the cool air that swept in
behind the front Saturday to linger across the region, keeping
conditions cool for the weekend and into the work week. However, our
cool temperatures will become down right cold by Tuesday and
Wednesday as a reinforcing shot of cold sweeps south from the
Canadian Plains. With a 1050+mb high forecast to sweep down the
front range of the Rockies next week, thoughts are that it will be
cold. Currently, model solutions point at Tuesday being the coldest
day next week, but it might be a toss-up with Wednesday, with highs
on those days ranging in the teens and 20s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Increased SSW winds will remain in place overnight with
ceilings gradually lowering ahead of a cold front. Expecting to
remain VFR through early Friday afternoon, after which point will see
a period of MVFR ceilings around the 2kft mark. The timing of the
frontal passage continues to look like a 00Z arrival. Once the
boundary pushes through, will likely see liquid precipitation mixed
in with some fog. As of now, ceilings look to remain MVFR through the
end of the forecast period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KLSX 260955
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
355 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 347 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

With a cold front located upstream and poised to move through the
area tomorrow, it appears that the unseasonably warm December
weather will be coming to an end during the upcoming weekend.
However, the warm weather of Christmas Day will certainly linger
into today, with highs in the low to mid 50s. These readings will
be some 10-15 degrees above average, and will make it feel more
like a typical day in late November or early March. Clouds should
start increasing this afternoon due to increasing moisture and
lift ahead of a low pressure system.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 347 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

(Tonight through Sunday)

Primary challenge heading into the weekend is pinning down PoP
trends.  Increasing southerly low level flow that commences today
and intensifies tonight will certainly be transporting decent low
level moisture into the area, with forecast soundings from both the
NAM and GFS indicating saturation occurring in the lowest 5-10kft by
Saturday morning.  However, mid level moisture is much more scant
and lift well ahead of the approaching front doesn`t appear to be
all that intense and/or focused, so am wondering if the precip
threat based on 00z MOS PoPs and some of QPF output is misleading.

In general, expect a increasing threat of rain overnight from west
to east as the moisture and lift slowly increases across the
region.  Have gone a bit higher with PoPs in our NW counties than in
current forecast, as model consensus indicates an increase of mid
level moisture in this area along with somewhat better lift tied to
approaching front.  Have also upped late night PoPs in our far south
with some fairly strong 85h moisture advection indicated in this
area by 12z.

The precip that does form overnight will wind down from NW to SE on
Saturday and Saturday evening, but with upper trof lagging cold
front by a considerable distance am hesitant to end the precip too
quickly.  With the low level cold air surging south, it`s possible
that there could be some ptype issues if the precip can linger long
enough by the time the freezing level drops to critical levels.
Right now it looks like the Schmocker Rule will be in effect with
most of the precip shutting down before AMS cools enough to support
snow, but due to the lag of the upper trof have added a bit of a
rain/snow mix just as the precip comes to an end.

Temperatures tonight and into early Saturday will certainly be on
the mild side due to the fairly strong and persistent southerly
winds, but the mercury will be taking a tumble during the day on
Saturday and into Saturday evening as the cold front pushes across
the area. Have attempted to reflect this thinking with tonight`s
lows and Saturday`s highs derived from a 3 hourly, non-diurnal
temp trend in the gridded data set.

This colder air will mean a return of more "typical" late December
temperatures by Sunday, with highs primarily in the 30s along with a
fair amount of sunshine.

(Monday-Thursday)

Medium range solutions in fairly good agreement in developing a W-E
trof from S Canada into the western U.S. in the early part of next
week.  The trof is then forecast to sweep across the central
CONUS by midweek while energy in the base of the trof breaks off and
forms a cut-off low over CA.  Passage of the trof in our area should
usher in some arctic air in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame, but
temps should moderate a bit by Thursday as the trof and coldest air
works into the eastern U.S.

Much of the medium range looks dry with limited dynamics and
moisture progged across area.  However, this could be changing by
the end of the medium range period (next Friday) as the upper low
over CA opens up and is ejected eastward.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1104 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

VFR conditions will continue through the night, with only high
level clouds expected. Expect southerly winds near 10 knots.
Ceilings near 2500 feet will move in around 18Z at KCOU and metro KSTL
TAF sites, and then near 21Z at KUIN. These will likely continue
through the duration of this TAF period. South winds will also
continue.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions through at least 18Z, with
south winds near 10 knots. Ceilings around 2500 feet will move in
around 18Z and last through this TAF period. Southerly winds
should also persist in the 10 to 12 knot range.

Browning

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 260955
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
355 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 347 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

With a cold front located upstream and poised to move through the
area tomorrow, it appears that the unseasonably warm December
weather will be coming to an end during the upcoming weekend.
However, the warm weather of Christmas Day will certainly linger
into today, with highs in the low to mid 50s. These readings will
be some 10-15 degrees above average, and will make it feel more
like a typical day in late November or early March. Clouds should
start increasing this afternoon due to increasing moisture and
lift ahead of a low pressure system.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 347 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

(Tonight through Sunday)

Primary challenge heading into the weekend is pinning down PoP
trends.  Increasing southerly low level flow that commences today
and intensifies tonight will certainly be transporting decent low
level moisture into the area, with forecast soundings from both the
NAM and GFS indicating saturation occurring in the lowest 5-10kft by
Saturday morning.  However, mid level moisture is much more scant
and lift well ahead of the approaching front doesn`t appear to be
all that intense and/or focused, so am wondering if the precip
threat based on 00z MOS PoPs and some of QPF output is misleading.

In general, expect a increasing threat of rain overnight from west
to east as the moisture and lift slowly increases across the
region.  Have gone a bit higher with PoPs in our NW counties than in
current forecast, as model consensus indicates an increase of mid
level moisture in this area along with somewhat better lift tied to
approaching front.  Have also upped late night PoPs in our far south
with some fairly strong 85h moisture advection indicated in this
area by 12z.

The precip that does form overnight will wind down from NW to SE on
Saturday and Saturday evening, but with upper trof lagging cold
front by a considerable distance am hesitant to end the precip too
quickly.  With the low level cold air surging south, it`s possible
that there could be some ptype issues if the precip can linger long
enough by the time the freezing level drops to critical levels.
Right now it looks like the Schmocker Rule will be in effect with
most of the precip shutting down before AMS cools enough to support
snow, but due to the lag of the upper trof have added a bit of a
rain/snow mix just as the precip comes to an end.

Temperatures tonight and into early Saturday will certainly be on
the mild side due to the fairly strong and persistent southerly
winds, but the mercury will be taking a tumble during the day on
Saturday and into Saturday evening as the cold front pushes across
the area. Have attempted to reflect this thinking with tonight`s
lows and Saturday`s highs derived from a 3 hourly, non-diurnal
temp trend in the gridded data set.

This colder air will mean a return of more "typical" late December
temperatures by Sunday, with highs primarily in the 30s along with a
fair amount of sunshine.

(Monday-Thursday)

Medium range solutions in fairly good agreement in developing a W-E
trof from S Canada into the western U.S. in the early part of next
week.  The trof is then forecast to sweep across the central
CONUS by midweek while energy in the base of the trof breaks off and
forms a cut-off low over CA.  Passage of the trof in our area should
usher in some arctic air in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame, but
temps should moderate a bit by Thursday as the trof and coldest air
works into the eastern U.S.

Much of the medium range looks dry with limited dynamics and
moisture progged across area.  However, this could be changing by
the end of the medium range period (next Friday) as the upper low
over CA opens up and is ejected eastward.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1104 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

VFR conditions will continue through the night, with only high
level clouds expected. Expect southerly winds near 10 knots.
Ceilings near 2500 feet will move in around 18Z at KCOU and metro KSTL
TAF sites, and then near 21Z at KUIN. These will likely continue
through the duration of this TAF period. South winds will also
continue.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions through at least 18Z, with
south winds near 10 knots. Ceilings around 2500 feet will move in
around 18Z and last through this TAF period. Southerly winds
should also persist in the 10 to 12 knot range.

Browning

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 260955
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
355 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 347 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

With a cold front located upstream and poised to move through the
area tomorrow, it appears that the unseasonably warm December
weather will be coming to an end during the upcoming weekend.
However, the warm weather of Christmas Day will certainly linger
into today, with highs in the low to mid 50s. These readings will
be some 10-15 degrees above average, and will make it feel more
like a typical day in late November or early March. Clouds should
start increasing this afternoon due to increasing moisture and
lift ahead of a low pressure system.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 347 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

(Tonight through Sunday)

Primary challenge heading into the weekend is pinning down PoP
trends.  Increasing southerly low level flow that commences today
and intensifies tonight will certainly be transporting decent low
level moisture into the area, with forecast soundings from both the
NAM and GFS indicating saturation occurring in the lowest 5-10kft by
Saturday morning.  However, mid level moisture is much more scant
and lift well ahead of the approaching front doesn`t appear to be
all that intense and/or focused, so am wondering if the precip
threat based on 00z MOS PoPs and some of QPF output is misleading.

In general, expect a increasing threat of rain overnight from west
to east as the moisture and lift slowly increases across the
region.  Have gone a bit higher with PoPs in our NW counties than in
current forecast, as model consensus indicates an increase of mid
level moisture in this area along with somewhat better lift tied to
approaching front.  Have also upped late night PoPs in our far south
with some fairly strong 85h moisture advection indicated in this
area by 12z.

The precip that does form overnight will wind down from NW to SE on
Saturday and Saturday evening, but with upper trof lagging cold
front by a considerable distance am hesitant to end the precip too
quickly.  With the low level cold air surging south, it`s possible
that there could be some ptype issues if the precip can linger long
enough by the time the freezing level drops to critical levels.
Right now it looks like the Schmocker Rule will be in effect with
most of the precip shutting down before AMS cools enough to support
snow, but due to the lag of the upper trof have added a bit of a
rain/snow mix just as the precip comes to an end.

Temperatures tonight and into early Saturday will certainly be on
the mild side due to the fairly strong and persistent southerly
winds, but the mercury will be taking a tumble during the day on
Saturday and into Saturday evening as the cold front pushes across
the area. Have attempted to reflect this thinking with tonight`s
lows and Saturday`s highs derived from a 3 hourly, non-diurnal
temp trend in the gridded data set.

This colder air will mean a return of more "typical" late December
temperatures by Sunday, with highs primarily in the 30s along with a
fair amount of sunshine.

(Monday-Thursday)

Medium range solutions in fairly good agreement in developing a W-E
trof from S Canada into the western U.S. in the early part of next
week.  The trof is then forecast to sweep across the central
CONUS by midweek while energy in the base of the trof breaks off and
forms a cut-off low over CA.  Passage of the trof in our area should
usher in some arctic air in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame, but
temps should moderate a bit by Thursday as the trof and coldest air
works into the eastern U.S.

Much of the medium range looks dry with limited dynamics and
moisture progged across area.  However, this could be changing by
the end of the medium range period (next Friday) as the upper low
over CA opens up and is ejected eastward.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1104 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

VFR conditions will continue through the night, with only high
level clouds expected. Expect southerly winds near 10 knots.
Ceilings near 2500 feet will move in around 18Z at KCOU and metro KSTL
TAF sites, and then near 21Z at KUIN. These will likely continue
through the duration of this TAF period. South winds will also
continue.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions through at least 18Z, with
south winds near 10 knots. Ceilings around 2500 feet will move in
around 18Z and last through this TAF period. Southerly winds
should also persist in the 10 to 12 knot range.

Browning

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 260955
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
355 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 347 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

With a cold front located upstream and poised to move through the
area tomorrow, it appears that the unseasonably warm December
weather will be coming to an end during the upcoming weekend.
However, the warm weather of Christmas Day will certainly linger
into today, with highs in the low to mid 50s. These readings will
be some 10-15 degrees above average, and will make it feel more
like a typical day in late November or early March. Clouds should
start increasing this afternoon due to increasing moisture and
lift ahead of a low pressure system.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 347 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

(Tonight through Sunday)

Primary challenge heading into the weekend is pinning down PoP
trends.  Increasing southerly low level flow that commences today
and intensifies tonight will certainly be transporting decent low
level moisture into the area, with forecast soundings from both the
NAM and GFS indicating saturation occurring in the lowest 5-10kft by
Saturday morning.  However, mid level moisture is much more scant
and lift well ahead of the approaching front doesn`t appear to be
all that intense and/or focused, so am wondering if the precip
threat based on 00z MOS PoPs and some of QPF output is misleading.

In general, expect a increasing threat of rain overnight from west
to east as the moisture and lift slowly increases across the
region.  Have gone a bit higher with PoPs in our NW counties than in
current forecast, as model consensus indicates an increase of mid
level moisture in this area along with somewhat better lift tied to
approaching front.  Have also upped late night PoPs in our far south
with some fairly strong 85h moisture advection indicated in this
area by 12z.

The precip that does form overnight will wind down from NW to SE on
Saturday and Saturday evening, but with upper trof lagging cold
front by a considerable distance am hesitant to end the precip too
quickly.  With the low level cold air surging south, it`s possible
that there could be some ptype issues if the precip can linger long
enough by the time the freezing level drops to critical levels.
Right now it looks like the Schmocker Rule will be in effect with
most of the precip shutting down before AMS cools enough to support
snow, but due to the lag of the upper trof have added a bit of a
rain/snow mix just as the precip comes to an end.

Temperatures tonight and into early Saturday will certainly be on
the mild side due to the fairly strong and persistent southerly
winds, but the mercury will be taking a tumble during the day on
Saturday and into Saturday evening as the cold front pushes across
the area. Have attempted to reflect this thinking with tonight`s
lows and Saturday`s highs derived from a 3 hourly, non-diurnal
temp trend in the gridded data set.

This colder air will mean a return of more "typical" late December
temperatures by Sunday, with highs primarily in the 30s along with a
fair amount of sunshine.

(Monday-Thursday)

Medium range solutions in fairly good agreement in developing a W-E
trof from S Canada into the western U.S. in the early part of next
week.  The trof is then forecast to sweep across the central
CONUS by midweek while energy in the base of the trof breaks off and
forms a cut-off low over CA.  Passage of the trof in our area should
usher in some arctic air in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame, but
temps should moderate a bit by Thursday as the trof and coldest air
works into the eastern U.S.

Much of the medium range looks dry with limited dynamics and
moisture progged across area.  However, this could be changing by
the end of the medium range period (next Friday) as the upper low
over CA opens up and is ejected eastward.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1104 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

VFR conditions will continue through the night, with only high
level clouds expected. Expect southerly winds near 10 knots.
Ceilings near 2500 feet will move in around 18Z at KCOU and metro KSTL
TAF sites, and then near 21Z at KUIN. These will likely continue
through the duration of this TAF period. South winds will also
continue.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions through at least 18Z, with
south winds near 10 knots. Ceilings around 2500 feet will move in
around 18Z and last through this TAF period. Southerly winds
should also persist in the 10 to 12 knot range.

Browning

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 260909
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
309 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Saturday night)

Southerly breezes persisted overnight as low pressure expanded
across the Plains. Warmer temperatures resulted with lows only
falling into the 40s. Temperatures today should be similar to
yesterday with highs in the 50s. We could experience some high 50s
in areas out toward Joplin and Pittsburg.

These south winds were also bringing an increase in moisture,
which will set the stage for some light rainfall starting late this
afternoon out near the Kansas and Missouri border.

For locations along the I-44 corridor, the better chances for
light rain will occur overnight tonight, with light rain tapering
from west to east Saturday morning.

For areas of south central Missouri, this rain could linger
through Saturday and into Saturday night, as upper level flow
continues from the southwest the entire weekend.

Rainfall amounts will range from 0.15 to 0.40, with the better
amounts occurring over south central Missouri.

A cold front will shift through southern Missouri Saturday,
bringing a Canadian airmass with it.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)

Dry weather and seasonal temperatures are expected next work week.
Upper flow will be fast and zonal, as northerly trajectories
continue at the surface.

Moisture over the Gulf of Mexico should remain suppressed near coastal
areas under this pattern, giving confidence to an extended period
of dry weather.

Both the GFS and ECWMF indicate the approach of a vigorous storm
system late in the week toward next Friday. Given the storm
track from a perfect prog stand point, the Ozarks would receive
more rain than anything. Chances for severe storms would occur in
the deep south, as heavy snow would be favored over the corn belt.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Low level wind shear conditions will continue into early Friday
morning along with brisk southerly winds. Confidence continues to
be high that an MVFR deck of clouds will overspread southern
Missouri Friday morning. This deck will then lower Friday evening
with IFR becoming increasingly likely.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 260909
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
309 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Saturday night)

Southerly breezes persisted overnight as low pressure expanded
across the Plains. Warmer temperatures resulted with lows only
falling into the 40s. Temperatures today should be similar to
yesterday with highs in the 50s. We could experience some high 50s
in areas out toward Joplin and Pittsburg.

These south winds were also bringing an increase in moisture,
which will set the stage for some light rainfall starting late this
afternoon out near the Kansas and Missouri border.

For locations along the I-44 corridor, the better chances for
light rain will occur overnight tonight, with light rain tapering
from west to east Saturday morning.

For areas of south central Missouri, this rain could linger
through Saturday and into Saturday night, as upper level flow
continues from the southwest the entire weekend.

Rainfall amounts will range from 0.15 to 0.40, with the better
amounts occurring over south central Missouri.

A cold front will shift through southern Missouri Saturday,
bringing a Canadian airmass with it.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)

Dry weather and seasonal temperatures are expected next work week.
Upper flow will be fast and zonal, as northerly trajectories
continue at the surface.

Moisture over the Gulf of Mexico should remain suppressed near coastal
areas under this pattern, giving confidence to an extended period
of dry weather.

Both the GFS and ECWMF indicate the approach of a vigorous storm
system late in the week toward next Friday. Given the storm
track from a perfect prog stand point, the Ozarks would receive
more rain than anything. Chances for severe storms would occur in
the deep south, as heavy snow would be favored over the corn belt.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Low level wind shear conditions will continue into early Friday
morning along with brisk southerly winds. Confidence continues to
be high that an MVFR deck of clouds will overspread southern
Missouri Friday morning. This deck will then lower Friday evening
with IFR becoming increasingly likely.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 260538
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1138 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

The brisk southerly winds and increasing high level clouds have
kept temperatures rather mild this evening...especially along and
west of the Highway 65 corridor. With the wind and increasing
clouds expected to persist overnight, we decided to nudge up
expected overnight lows across western Missouri and extreme
southeastern Kansas. Lows in the middle 40s appear reasonable
along the I-49 corridor...but we would not be shocked if a few
locations remained in the upper 40s. We have also nudged up winds
a bit overnight across this same region.

Updated products already sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 217 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Temperatures are mild this afternoon with most locations in the
lower to middle 50s. It has been a windy day with some gusts over
40 mph across portions of southeast Kansas and far western
Missouri. High clouds have started to increase once again and will
continue through out tonight. Winds will remain breezy tonight and
cloud cover will not allow temperatures to fall off too much.

Patchy drizzle will be possible as low moisture begins to move in
late tomorrow morning and tomorrow afternoon especially areas west
of Highway 65. A shortwave will move out across the central Plains
into the Midwest tomorrow night. Scattered showers will develop
after dark tomorrow and become widespread late tomorrow night into
early Saturday morning. A cold front will begin to move into the
area late tomorrow night into early on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 217 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

The models have continued to slow down the colder air on Saturday
a bit. It appears that we should remain just a cold rain as the
rain exits the area from west to east during the day on Saturday.
Temperatures will also slowly fall during the day on Saturday
behind the front but all precip should end before temperatures
reach below freezing Saturday night. No wintry weather expected
in the immediate area.

Back to seasonably cold weather is expected Sunday through Monday
and drier conditions. Models still indicate that an Arctic airmass
will come down out of Canada middle of next week. A 1055 MB plus
high will slide down the eastern front of the Rocky Mountains. The
front will move through our area pretty much uneventful Monday
night. Temperatures will fall most of the day Tuesday with strong
cold air advection.

The latest guidance shows that it will be mostly dry and just cold
for most of next week. The only thing to watch for is that the
models show upper level energy being cut off into an upper level
low across the southwestern U.S. middle of next week. There are signs
it will try to come out across the southern U.S. towards the end
of next week. Will need to keep an eye on how this system moves
out and interacts with moisture and the cold airmass.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Low level wind shear conditions will continue into early Friday
morning along with brisk southerly winds. Confidence continues to
be high that an MVFR deck of clouds will overspread southern
Missouri Friday morning. This deck will then lower Friday evening
with IFR becoming increasingly likely.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KEAX 260526
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1126 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

After a mild and breezy day temperatures will remain above normal
tonight and again tomorrow ahead of an approaching trough and
attendant cold front moving in from the west. Very late
tonight/early morning Friday isentropic ascent ahead of the trough
should foster the rapid development of cloud cover leading to spotty
DZ/-SHRA by the afternoon. Tomorrow night as the cold front moves in
from the northwest POPS increase for some light rain showers that
will eventually mix with light snow. QPF amounts for the CWA are in
the 0.08-0.15 inch range so what snow does develop is not expected to
amount to much... a dusting or so. The system quickly clears from
west to east Saturday morning with partial clearing and near normal
high temps in the 30s.

The CWA remains quiet on Sunday before much colder air begins to
advect into the region on Monday. At this time the NWP consensus
maintains very slight chance POPS behind a cold frontal passage
Monday evening into early Tuesday morning amounting to perhaps a
dusting to quarter inch of fluffy snow.  The northwest portion of
the CWA has the best chance for seeing light snow.  Otherwise
Tuesday through the rest of the periods should be dry with
temperatures well below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Increased SSW winds will remain in place overnight with
ceilings gradually lowering ahead of a cold front. Expecting to
remain VFR through early Friday afternoon, after which point will see
a period of MVFR ceilings around the 2kft mark. The timing of the
frontal passage continues to look like a 00Z arrival. Once the
boundary pushes through, will likely see liquid precipitation mixed
in with some fog. As of now, ceilings look to remain MVFR through the
end of the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KEAX 260526
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1126 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

After a mild and breezy day temperatures will remain above normal
tonight and again tomorrow ahead of an approaching trough and
attendant cold front moving in from the west. Very late
tonight/early morning Friday isentropic ascent ahead of the trough
should foster the rapid development of cloud cover leading to spotty
DZ/-SHRA by the afternoon. Tomorrow night as the cold front moves in
from the northwest POPS increase for some light rain showers that
will eventually mix with light snow. QPF amounts for the CWA are in
the 0.08-0.15 inch range so what snow does develop is not expected to
amount to much... a dusting or so. The system quickly clears from
west to east Saturday morning with partial clearing and near normal
high temps in the 30s.

The CWA remains quiet on Sunday before much colder air begins to
advect into the region on Monday. At this time the NWP consensus
maintains very slight chance POPS behind a cold frontal passage
Monday evening into early Tuesday morning amounting to perhaps a
dusting to quarter inch of fluffy snow.  The northwest portion of
the CWA has the best chance for seeing light snow.  Otherwise
Tuesday through the rest of the periods should be dry with
temperatures well below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Increased SSW winds will remain in place overnight with
ceilings gradually lowering ahead of a cold front. Expecting to
remain VFR through early Friday afternoon, after which point will see
a period of MVFR ceilings around the 2kft mark. The timing of the
frontal passage continues to look like a 00Z arrival. Once the
boundary pushes through, will likely see liquid precipitation mixed
in with some fog. As of now, ceilings look to remain MVFR through the
end of the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KLSX 260512
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1112 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 349 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

Return flow on the backside of a sfc high centered across the Deep
South and in advance of the next cold front currently extending
across the nthrn Plains scheduled for Saturday will keep sthrly
winds going tonight. This will aid in a warm night with lows in the
mid 30s to near 40 which is 15-20 degrees above normal. Due to the
warm conditions expected tonight and the known cool bias MOS has in
this set up, generally went above the warmest guidance. Otherwise
expect a quiet night with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.

Miller

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

(Friday through Sunday)

Have not changed much from the going forecast in that temperatures
will be above normal until a front moves through the area on
Saturday.  This same front will bring a chance of rain with it
Friday Night into Saturday.  Models were in relatively good
agreement and generally followed.

It still appears that a shortwave trough will eject out of the
longwave trough currently over the western CONUS.  This first
shortwave will round the base of the longwave tonight and reach the
upper Midwest by Saturday morning.  This will cause the front
currently over the Great Plains to move through Missouri during the
day on Saturday.  Still expect rain to develop over the area on
Friday night as some low level moisture convergence increases ahead
of the shortwave trough.  The rain will continue into Saturday, with
likely PoPs over southeast Missouri into southern Illinois where the
GFS depicts strong moisture convergence coupled with relatively
strong mid-level ascent associated with the shortwave trough.   Some
rain chances will linger over the southeastern part of the CWA into
Saturday evening as the front exits the area before drier air and
subsidence moves in.

Still looks like there may be some snow mixing with the rain over
parts of central and northeast Missouri as well as west central
Illinois on Saturday as temperatures cool behind the front.
Generally followed NAM and GFS MOS temps which are in good agreement
and have temperatures falling behind the front during the day on
Saturday.

(Monday through next Thursday)

Global models are in relatively good agreement that upper flow will
be  mainly zonal during this period with little storminess.  These
scenarios are not usually high confidence forecasts.  For now went
mainly dry with close to normal temperatures.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1104 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

VFR conditions will continue through the night, with only high
level clouds expected. Expect southerly winds near 10 knots.
Ceilings near 2500 feet will move in around 18Z at KCOU and metro KSTL
TAF sites, and then near 21Z at KUIN. These will likely continue
through the duration of this TAF period. South winds will also
continue.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions through at least 18Z, with
south winds near 10 knots. Ceilings around 2500 feet will move in
around 18Z and last through this TAF period. Southerly winds
should also persist in the 10 to 12 knot range.

Browning

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 260512
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1112 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 349 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

Return flow on the backside of a sfc high centered across the Deep
South and in advance of the next cold front currently extending
across the nthrn Plains scheduled for Saturday will keep sthrly
winds going tonight. This will aid in a warm night with lows in the
mid 30s to near 40 which is 15-20 degrees above normal. Due to the
warm conditions expected tonight and the known cool bias MOS has in
this set up, generally went above the warmest guidance. Otherwise
expect a quiet night with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.

Miller

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

(Friday through Sunday)

Have not changed much from the going forecast in that temperatures
will be above normal until a front moves through the area on
Saturday.  This same front will bring a chance of rain with it
Friday Night into Saturday.  Models were in relatively good
agreement and generally followed.

It still appears that a shortwave trough will eject out of the
longwave trough currently over the western CONUS.  This first
shortwave will round the base of the longwave tonight and reach the
upper Midwest by Saturday morning.  This will cause the front
currently over the Great Plains to move through Missouri during the
day on Saturday.  Still expect rain to develop over the area on
Friday night as some low level moisture convergence increases ahead
of the shortwave trough.  The rain will continue into Saturday, with
likely PoPs over southeast Missouri into southern Illinois where the
GFS depicts strong moisture convergence coupled with relatively
strong mid-level ascent associated with the shortwave trough.   Some
rain chances will linger over the southeastern part of the CWA into
Saturday evening as the front exits the area before drier air and
subsidence moves in.

Still looks like there may be some snow mixing with the rain over
parts of central and northeast Missouri as well as west central
Illinois on Saturday as temperatures cool behind the front.
Generally followed NAM and GFS MOS temps which are in good agreement
and have temperatures falling behind the front during the day on
Saturday.

(Monday through next Thursday)

Global models are in relatively good agreement that upper flow will
be  mainly zonal during this period with little storminess.  These
scenarios are not usually high confidence forecasts.  For now went
mainly dry with close to normal temperatures.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1104 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

VFR conditions will continue through the night, with only high
level clouds expected. Expect southerly winds near 10 knots.
Ceilings near 2500 feet will move in around 18Z at KCOU and metro KSTL
TAF sites, and then near 21Z at KUIN. These will likely continue
through the duration of this TAF period. South winds will also
continue.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions through at least 18Z, with
south winds near 10 knots. Ceilings around 2500 feet will move in
around 18Z and last through this TAF period. Southerly winds
should also persist in the 10 to 12 knot range.

Browning

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 260356
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
956 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

...Update to Temperatures and Winds Into Early Friday Morning...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

The brisk southerly winds and increasing high level clouds have
kept temperatures rather mild this evening...especially along and
west of the Highway 65 corridor. With the wind and increasing
clouds expected to persist overnight, we decided to nudge up
expected overnight lows across western Missouri and extreme
southeastern Kansas. Lows in the middle 40s appear reasonable
along the I-49 corridor...but we would not be shocked if a few
locations remained in the upper 40s. We have also nudged up winds
a bit overnight across this same region.

Updated products already sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 217 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Temperatures are mild this afternoon with most locations in the
lower to middle 50s. It has been a windy day with some gusts over
40 mph across portions of southeast Kansas and far western
Missouri. High clouds have started to increase once again and will
continue through out tonight. Winds will remain breezy tonight and
cloud cover will not allow temperatures to fall off too much.

Patchy drizzle will be possible as low moisture begins to move in
late tomorrow morning and tomorrow afternoon especially areas west
of Highway 65. A shortwave will move out across the central Plains
into the Midwest tomorrow night. Scattered showers will develop
after dark tomorrow and become widespread late tomorrow night into
early Saturday morning. A cold front will begin to move into the
area late tomorrow night into early on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 217 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

The models have continued to slow down the colder air on Saturday
a bit. It appears that we should remain just a cold rain as the
rain exits the area from west to east during the day on Saturday.
Temperatures will also slowly fall during the day on Saturday
behind the front but all precip should end before temperatures
reach below freezing Saturday night. No wintry weather expected
in the immediate area.

Back to seasonably cold weather is expected Sunday through Monday
and drier conditions. Models still indicate that an Arctic airmass
will come down out of Canada middle of next week. A 1055 MB plus
high will slide down the eastern front of the Rocky Mountains. The
front will move through our area pretty much uneventful Monday
night. Temperatures will fall most of the day Tuesday with strong
cold air advection.

The latest guidance shows that it will be mostly dry and just cold
for most of next week. The only thing to watch for is that the
models show upper level energy being cut off into an upper level
low across the southwestern U.S. middle of next week. There are signs
it will try to come out across the southern U.S. towards the end
of next week. Will need to keep an eye on how this system moves
out and interacts with moisture and the cold airmass.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 508 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Brisk southerly winds will continue at the surface through Friday.
Low level wind shear conditions are also expected into early
Friday morning. Confidence is then high that a deck of MVFR
ceilings will spread into the region Friday morning...although
exact timing is still somewhat in question. There is also low
confidence that ceilings may approach IFR at times along with the
potential for drizzle. We have opted to leave IFR/drizzle out of
the TAFs at this time given the low confidence.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 260356
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
956 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

...Update to Temperatures and Winds Into Early Friday Morning...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

The brisk southerly winds and increasing high level clouds have
kept temperatures rather mild this evening...especially along and
west of the Highway 65 corridor. With the wind and increasing
clouds expected to persist overnight, we decided to nudge up
expected overnight lows across western Missouri and extreme
southeastern Kansas. Lows in the middle 40s appear reasonable
along the I-49 corridor...but we would not be shocked if a few
locations remained in the upper 40s. We have also nudged up winds
a bit overnight across this same region.

Updated products already sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 217 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Temperatures are mild this afternoon with most locations in the
lower to middle 50s. It has been a windy day with some gusts over
40 mph across portions of southeast Kansas and far western
Missouri. High clouds have started to increase once again and will
continue through out tonight. Winds will remain breezy tonight and
cloud cover will not allow temperatures to fall off too much.

Patchy drizzle will be possible as low moisture begins to move in
late tomorrow morning and tomorrow afternoon especially areas west
of Highway 65. A shortwave will move out across the central Plains
into the Midwest tomorrow night. Scattered showers will develop
after dark tomorrow and become widespread late tomorrow night into
early Saturday morning. A cold front will begin to move into the
area late tomorrow night into early on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 217 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

The models have continued to slow down the colder air on Saturday
a bit. It appears that we should remain just a cold rain as the
rain exits the area from west to east during the day on Saturday.
Temperatures will also slowly fall during the day on Saturday
behind the front but all precip should end before temperatures
reach below freezing Saturday night. No wintry weather expected
in the immediate area.

Back to seasonably cold weather is expected Sunday through Monday
and drier conditions. Models still indicate that an Arctic airmass
will come down out of Canada middle of next week. A 1055 MB plus
high will slide down the eastern front of the Rocky Mountains. The
front will move through our area pretty much uneventful Monday
night. Temperatures will fall most of the day Tuesday with strong
cold air advection.

The latest guidance shows that it will be mostly dry and just cold
for most of next week. The only thing to watch for is that the
models show upper level energy being cut off into an upper level
low across the southwestern U.S. middle of next week. There are signs
it will try to come out across the southern U.S. towards the end
of next week. Will need to keep an eye on how this system moves
out and interacts with moisture and the cold airmass.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 508 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Brisk southerly winds will continue at the surface through Friday.
Low level wind shear conditions are also expected into early
Friday morning. Confidence is then high that a deck of MVFR
ceilings will spread into the region Friday morning...although
exact timing is still somewhat in question. There is also low
confidence that ceilings may approach IFR at times along with the
potential for drizzle. We have opted to leave IFR/drizzle out of
the TAFs at this time given the low confidence.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 260356
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
956 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

...Update to Temperatures and Winds Into Early Friday Morning...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

The brisk southerly winds and increasing high level clouds have
kept temperatures rather mild this evening...especially along and
west of the Highway 65 corridor. With the wind and increasing
clouds expected to persist overnight, we decided to nudge up
expected overnight lows across western Missouri and extreme
southeastern Kansas. Lows in the middle 40s appear reasonable
along the I-49 corridor...but we would not be shocked if a few
locations remained in the upper 40s. We have also nudged up winds
a bit overnight across this same region.

Updated products already sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 217 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Temperatures are mild this afternoon with most locations in the
lower to middle 50s. It has been a windy day with some gusts over
40 mph across portions of southeast Kansas and far western
Missouri. High clouds have started to increase once again and will
continue through out tonight. Winds will remain breezy tonight and
cloud cover will not allow temperatures to fall off too much.

Patchy drizzle will be possible as low moisture begins to move in
late tomorrow morning and tomorrow afternoon especially areas west
of Highway 65. A shortwave will move out across the central Plains
into the Midwest tomorrow night. Scattered showers will develop
after dark tomorrow and become widespread late tomorrow night into
early Saturday morning. A cold front will begin to move into the
area late tomorrow night into early on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 217 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

The models have continued to slow down the colder air on Saturday
a bit. It appears that we should remain just a cold rain as the
rain exits the area from west to east during the day on Saturday.
Temperatures will also slowly fall during the day on Saturday
behind the front but all precip should end before temperatures
reach below freezing Saturday night. No wintry weather expected
in the immediate area.

Back to seasonably cold weather is expected Sunday through Monday
and drier conditions. Models still indicate that an Arctic airmass
will come down out of Canada middle of next week. A 1055 MB plus
high will slide down the eastern front of the Rocky Mountains. The
front will move through our area pretty much uneventful Monday
night. Temperatures will fall most of the day Tuesday with strong
cold air advection.

The latest guidance shows that it will be mostly dry and just cold
for most of next week. The only thing to watch for is that the
models show upper level energy being cut off into an upper level
low across the southwestern U.S. middle of next week. There are signs
it will try to come out across the southern U.S. towards the end
of next week. Will need to keep an eye on how this system moves
out and interacts with moisture and the cold airmass.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 508 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Brisk southerly winds will continue at the surface through Friday.
Low level wind shear conditions are also expected into early
Friday morning. Confidence is then high that a deck of MVFR
ceilings will spread into the region Friday morning...although
exact timing is still somewhat in question. There is also low
confidence that ceilings may approach IFR at times along with the
potential for drizzle. We have opted to leave IFR/drizzle out of
the TAFs at this time given the low confidence.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KEAX 260109
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
709 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

After a mild and breezy day temperatures will remain above normal
tonight and again tomorrow ahead of an approaching trough and
attendant cold front moving in from the west. Very late
tonight/early morning Friday isentropic ascent ahead of the trough
should foster the rapid development of cloud cover leading to spotty
DZ/-SHRA by the afternoon. Tomorrow night as the cold front moves in
from the northwest POPS increase for some light rain showers that
will eventually mix with light snow. QPF amounts for the CWA are in
the 0.08-0.15 inch range so what snow does develop is not expected to
amount to much... a dusting or so. The system quickly clears from
west to east Saturday morning with partial clearing and near normal
high temps in the 30s.

The CWA remains quiet on Sunday before much colder air begins to
advect into the region on Monday. At this time the NWP consensus
maintains very slight chance POPS behind a cold frontal passage
Monday evening into early Tuesday morning amounting to perhaps a
dusting to quarter inch of fluffy snow.  The northwest portion of
the CWA has the best chance for seeing light snow.  Otherwise
Tuesday through the rest of the periods should be dry with
temperatures well below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 659 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Strong southerly winds will taper off initially, though will remain
steady with gusts up to 20-25kts through 07Z. Ceiling heights will
begin to lower through the evening hours ahead of an approaching cold
front. Expected to remain VFR until 19Z Friday at which point MVFR
ceilings will nose in along the frontal boundary. Timing of frontal
passage will be near 00Z, so have excluded the NW wind shift from the
forecast, with the exception of KSTJ. Greatest chances of
precipitation will commence shortly after the cold front moves
through the terminals area.

Surface winds over Eastern Kansas have recently dropped off
significantly. Should surface winds at the KC terminals follow suit
during the evening hours, wind shear values in the 35-40kt range are
possible as 1500ft winds are within the 50kt range. Will monitor
surface winds and amend forecast if necessary.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KEAX 260109
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
709 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

After a mild and breezy day temperatures will remain above normal
tonight and again tomorrow ahead of an approaching trough and
attendant cold front moving in from the west. Very late
tonight/early morning Friday isentropic ascent ahead of the trough
should foster the rapid development of cloud cover leading to spotty
DZ/-SHRA by the afternoon. Tomorrow night as the cold front moves in
from the northwest POPS increase for some light rain showers that
will eventually mix with light snow. QPF amounts for the CWA are in
the 0.08-0.15 inch range so what snow does develop is not expected to
amount to much... a dusting or so. The system quickly clears from
west to east Saturday morning with partial clearing and near normal
high temps in the 30s.

The CWA remains quiet on Sunday before much colder air begins to
advect into the region on Monday. At this time the NWP consensus
maintains very slight chance POPS behind a cold frontal passage
Monday evening into early Tuesday morning amounting to perhaps a
dusting to quarter inch of fluffy snow.  The northwest portion of
the CWA has the best chance for seeing light snow.  Otherwise
Tuesday through the rest of the periods should be dry with
temperatures well below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 659 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Strong southerly winds will taper off initially, though will remain
steady with gusts up to 20-25kts through 07Z. Ceiling heights will
begin to lower through the evening hours ahead of an approaching cold
front. Expected to remain VFR until 19Z Friday at which point MVFR
ceilings will nose in along the frontal boundary. Timing of frontal
passage will be near 00Z, so have excluded the NW wind shift from the
forecast, with the exception of KSTJ. Greatest chances of
precipitation will commence shortly after the cold front moves
through the terminals area.

Surface winds over Eastern Kansas have recently dropped off
significantly. Should surface winds at the KC terminals follow suit
during the evening hours, wind shear values in the 35-40kt range are
possible as 1500ft winds are within the 50kt range. Will monitor
surface winds and amend forecast if necessary.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KLSX 252331
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
531 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 349 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

Return flow on the backside of a sfc high centered across the Deep
South and in advance of the next cold front currently extending
across the nthrn Plains scheduled for Saturday will keep sthrly
winds going tonight. This will aid in a warm night with lows in the
mid 30s to near 40 which is 15-20 degrees above normal. Due to the
warm conditions expected tonight and the known cool bias MOS has in
this set up, generally went above the warmest guidance. Otherwise
expect a quiet night with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.

Miller

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

(Friday through Sunday)

Have not changed much from the going forecast in that temperatures
will be above normal until a front moves through the area on
Saturday.  This same front will bring a chance of rain with it
Friday Night into Saturday.  Models were in relatively good
agreement and generally followed.

It still appears that a shortwave trough will eject out of the
longwave trough currently over the western CONUS.  This first
shortwave will round the base of the longwave tonight and reach the
upper Midwest by Saturday morning.  This will cause the front
currently over the Great Plains to move through Missouri during the
day on Saturday.  Still expect rain to develop over the area on
Friday night as some low level moisture convergence increases ahead
of the shortwave trough.  The rain will continue into Saturday, with
likely PoPs over southeast Missouri into southern Illinois where the
GFS depicts strong moisture convergence coupled with relatively
strong mid-level ascent associated with the shortwave trough.   Some
rain chances will linger over the southeastern part of the CWA into
Saturday evening as the front exits the area before drier air and
subsidence moves in.

Still looks like there may be some snow mixing with the rain over
parts of central and northeast Missouri as well as west central
Illinois on Saturday as temperatures cool behind the front.
Generally followed NAM and GFS MOS temps which are in good agreement
and have temperatures falling behind the front during the day on
Saturday.

(Monday through next Thursday)

Global models are in relatively good agreement that upper flow will
be  mainly zonal during this period with little storminess.  These
scenarios are not usually high confidence forecasts.  For now went
mainly dry with close to normal temperatures.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 524 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

VFR conditions expected through at least 18Z Friday. High clouds
will thicken this evening, with high-end MVFR cloud deck moving in
by around 18Z. Earlier gusty surface winds will diminish
overnight at KCOU and should remain at or below 14 knots there.
Elsewhere southerly surface winds should remain at 10-12 knots
through this TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions with only high clouds expected
through 18Z, when cloud deck near 2500 feet will move in from the
south. After that time, ceilings in that range should continue
through this TAF period. Southerly winds will continue at around
12 knots.

Browning

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 252331
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
531 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 349 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

Return flow on the backside of a sfc high centered across the Deep
South and in advance of the next cold front currently extending
across the nthrn Plains scheduled for Saturday will keep sthrly
winds going tonight. This will aid in a warm night with lows in the
mid 30s to near 40 which is 15-20 degrees above normal. Due to the
warm conditions expected tonight and the known cool bias MOS has in
this set up, generally went above the warmest guidance. Otherwise
expect a quiet night with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.

Miller

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

(Friday through Sunday)

Have not changed much from the going forecast in that temperatures
will be above normal until a front moves through the area on
Saturday.  This same front will bring a chance of rain with it
Friday Night into Saturday.  Models were in relatively good
agreement and generally followed.

It still appears that a shortwave trough will eject out of the
longwave trough currently over the western CONUS.  This first
shortwave will round the base of the longwave tonight and reach the
upper Midwest by Saturday morning.  This will cause the front
currently over the Great Plains to move through Missouri during the
day on Saturday.  Still expect rain to develop over the area on
Friday night as some low level moisture convergence increases ahead
of the shortwave trough.  The rain will continue into Saturday, with
likely PoPs over southeast Missouri into southern Illinois where the
GFS depicts strong moisture convergence coupled with relatively
strong mid-level ascent associated with the shortwave trough.   Some
rain chances will linger over the southeastern part of the CWA into
Saturday evening as the front exits the area before drier air and
subsidence moves in.

Still looks like there may be some snow mixing with the rain over
parts of central and northeast Missouri as well as west central
Illinois on Saturday as temperatures cool behind the front.
Generally followed NAM and GFS MOS temps which are in good agreement
and have temperatures falling behind the front during the day on
Saturday.

(Monday through next Thursday)

Global models are in relatively good agreement that upper flow will
be  mainly zonal during this period with little storminess.  These
scenarios are not usually high confidence forecasts.  For now went
mainly dry with close to normal temperatures.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 524 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

VFR conditions expected through at least 18Z Friday. High clouds
will thicken this evening, with high-end MVFR cloud deck moving in
by around 18Z. Earlier gusty surface winds will diminish
overnight at KCOU and should remain at or below 14 knots there.
Elsewhere southerly surface winds should remain at 10-12 knots
through this TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions with only high clouds expected
through 18Z, when cloud deck near 2500 feet will move in from the
south. After that time, ceilings in that range should continue
through this TAF period. Southerly winds will continue at around
12 knots.

Browning

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 252319
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
519 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

After a mild and breezy day temperatures will remain above normal
tonight and again tomorrow ahead of an approaching trough and
attendant cold front moving in from the west. Very late
tonight/early morning Friday isentropic ascent ahead of the trough
should foster the rapid development of cloud cover leading to spotty
DZ/-SHRA by the afternoon. Tomorrow night as the cold front moves in
from the northwest POPS increase for some light rain showers that
will eventually mix with light snow. QPF amounts for the CWA are in
the 0.08-0.15 inch range so what snow does develop is not expected to
amount to much... a dusting or so. The system quickly clears from
west to east Saturday morning with partial clearing and near normal
high temps in the 30s.

The CWA remains quiet on Sunday before much colder air begins to
advect into the region on Monday. At this time the NWP consensus
maintains very slight chance POPS behind a cold frontal passage
Monday evening into early Tuesday morning amounting to perhaps a
dusting to quarter inch of fluffy snow.  The northwest portion of
the CWA has the best chance for seeing light snow.  Otherwise
Tuesday through the rest of the periods should be dry with
temperatures well below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 509 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Strong southerly winds will taper off initially, though will remain
steady with gusts up to 20-25KTS through 07Z. Ceiling heights will
begin to lower through the evening hours ahead of an approaching cold
front. Expected to remain VFR until 19Z Friday at which point MVFR ceilings
will nose in along the frontal boundary. Timing of frontal passage
will be near 00Z, so have excluded the NW wind shift from the
forecast, with the exception of KSTJ. Greatest chances of precipitation
will commence shortly after the cold front moves through the
terminals area.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 252319
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
519 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

After a mild and breezy day temperatures will remain above normal
tonight and again tomorrow ahead of an approaching trough and
attendant cold front moving in from the west. Very late
tonight/early morning Friday isentropic ascent ahead of the trough
should foster the rapid development of cloud cover leading to spotty
DZ/-SHRA by the afternoon. Tomorrow night as the cold front moves in
from the northwest POPS increase for some light rain showers that
will eventually mix with light snow. QPF amounts for the CWA are in
the 0.08-0.15 inch range so what snow does develop is not expected to
amount to much... a dusting or so. The system quickly clears from
west to east Saturday morning with partial clearing and near normal
high temps in the 30s.

The CWA remains quiet on Sunday before much colder air begins to
advect into the region on Monday. At this time the NWP consensus
maintains very slight chance POPS behind a cold frontal passage
Monday evening into early Tuesday morning amounting to perhaps a
dusting to quarter inch of fluffy snow.  The northwest portion of
the CWA has the best chance for seeing light snow.  Otherwise
Tuesday through the rest of the periods should be dry with
temperatures well below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 509 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Strong southerly winds will taper off initially, though will remain
steady with gusts up to 20-25KTS through 07Z. Ceiling heights will
begin to lower through the evening hours ahead of an approaching cold
front. Expected to remain VFR until 19Z Friday at which point MVFR ceilings
will nose in along the frontal boundary. Timing of frontal passage
will be near 00Z, so have excluded the NW wind shift from the
forecast, with the exception of KSTJ. Greatest chances of precipitation
will commence shortly after the cold front moves through the
terminals area.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 252319
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
519 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

After a mild and breezy day temperatures will remain above normal
tonight and again tomorrow ahead of an approaching trough and
attendant cold front moving in from the west. Very late
tonight/early morning Friday isentropic ascent ahead of the trough
should foster the rapid development of cloud cover leading to spotty
DZ/-SHRA by the afternoon. Tomorrow night as the cold front moves in
from the northwest POPS increase for some light rain showers that
will eventually mix with light snow. QPF amounts for the CWA are in
the 0.08-0.15 inch range so what snow does develop is not expected to
amount to much... a dusting or so. The system quickly clears from
west to east Saturday morning with partial clearing and near normal
high temps in the 30s.

The CWA remains quiet on Sunday before much colder air begins to
advect into the region on Monday. At this time the NWP consensus
maintains very slight chance POPS behind a cold frontal passage
Monday evening into early Tuesday morning amounting to perhaps a
dusting to quarter inch of fluffy snow.  The northwest portion of
the CWA has the best chance for seeing light snow.  Otherwise
Tuesday through the rest of the periods should be dry with
temperatures well below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 509 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Strong southerly winds will taper off initially, though will remain
steady with gusts up to 20-25KTS through 07Z. Ceiling heights will
begin to lower through the evening hours ahead of an approaching cold
front. Expected to remain VFR until 19Z Friday at which point MVFR ceilings
will nose in along the frontal boundary. Timing of frontal passage
will be near 00Z, so have excluded the NW wind shift from the
forecast, with the exception of KSTJ. Greatest chances of precipitation
will commence shortly after the cold front moves through the
terminals area.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 252319
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
519 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

After a mild and breezy day temperatures will remain above normal
tonight and again tomorrow ahead of an approaching trough and
attendant cold front moving in from the west. Very late
tonight/early morning Friday isentropic ascent ahead of the trough
should foster the rapid development of cloud cover leading to spotty
DZ/-SHRA by the afternoon. Tomorrow night as the cold front moves in
from the northwest POPS increase for some light rain showers that
will eventually mix with light snow. QPF amounts for the CWA are in
the 0.08-0.15 inch range so what snow does develop is not expected to
amount to much... a dusting or so. The system quickly clears from
west to east Saturday morning with partial clearing and near normal
high temps in the 30s.

The CWA remains quiet on Sunday before much colder air begins to
advect into the region on Monday. At this time the NWP consensus
maintains very slight chance POPS behind a cold frontal passage
Monday evening into early Tuesday morning amounting to perhaps a
dusting to quarter inch of fluffy snow.  The northwest portion of
the CWA has the best chance for seeing light snow.  Otherwise
Tuesday through the rest of the periods should be dry with
temperatures well below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 509 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Strong southerly winds will taper off initially, though will remain
steady with gusts up to 20-25KTS through 07Z. Ceiling heights will
begin to lower through the evening hours ahead of an approaching cold
front. Expected to remain VFR until 19Z Friday at which point MVFR ceilings
will nose in along the frontal boundary. Timing of frontal passage
will be near 00Z, so have excluded the NW wind shift from the
forecast, with the exception of KSTJ. Greatest chances of precipitation
will commence shortly after the cold front moves through the
terminals area.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KSGF 252319
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
519 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

...Update to Aviation and to Expire Wind Advisory...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 508 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

The strong southerly winds have diminished a bit across western
Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas late this afternoon.
Several gusts over 40 mph were recorded across this region this
afternoon. The Wind Advisory has been allowed to expire with the
slight decrease in winds.

Brisk and somewhat gusty southerly winds will continue overnight
and into Friday as low level pressure gradients remain rather
tight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 217 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Temperatures are mild this afternoon with most locations in the
lower to middle 50s. It has been a windy day with some gusts over
40 mph across portions of southeast Kansas and far western
Missouri. High clouds have started to increase once again and will
continue through out tonight. Winds will remain breezy tonight and
cloud cover will not allow temperatures to fall off too much.

Patchy drizzle will be possible as low moisture begins to move in
late tomorrow morning and tomorrow afternoon especially areas west
of Highway 65. A shortwave will move out across the central Plains
into the Midwest tomorrow night. Scattered showers will develop
after dark tomorrow and become widespread late tomorrow night into
early Saturday morning. A cold front will begin to move into the
area late tomorrow night into early on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 217 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

The models have continued to slow down the colder air on Saturday
a bit. It appears that we should remain just a cold rain as the
rain exits the area from west to east during the day on Saturday.
Temperatures will also slowly fall during the day on Saturday
behind the front but all precip should end before temperatures
reach below freezing Saturday night. No wintry weather expected
in the immediate area.

Back to seasonably cold weather is expected Sunday through Monday
and drier conditions. Models still indicate that an Arctic airmass
will come down out of Canada middle of next week. A 1055 MB plus
high will slide down the eastern front of the Rocky Mountains. The
front will move through our area pretty much uneventful Monday
night. Temperatures will fall most of the day Tuesday with strong
cold air advection.

The latest guidance shows that it will be mostly dry and just cold
for most of next week. The only thing to watch for is that the
models show upper level energy being cut off into an upper level
low across the southwestern U.S. middle of next week. There are signs
it will try to come out across the southern U.S. towards the end
of next week. Will need to keep an eye on how this system moves
out and interacts with moisture and the cold airmass.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 508 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Brisk southerly winds will continue at the surface through Friday.
Low level wind shear conditions are also expected into early
Friday morning. Confidence is then high that a deck of MVFR
ceilings will spread into the region Friday morning...although
exact timing is still somewhat in question. There is also low
confidence that ceilings may approach IFR at times along with the
potential for drizzle. We have opted to leave IFR/drizzle out of
the TAFs at this time given the low confidence.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KLSX 252151
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
351 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 349 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

Return flow on the backside of a sfc high centered across the Deep
South and in advance of the next cold front currently extending
across the nthrn Plains scheduled for Saturday will keep sthrly
winds going tonight. This will aid in a warm night with lows in the
mid 30s to near 40 which is 15-20 degrees above normal. Due to the
warm conditions expected tonight and the known cool bias MOS has in
this set up, generally went above the warmest guidance. Otherwise
expect a quiet night with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.

Miller

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

(Friday through Sunday)

Have not changed much from the going forecast in that temperatures
will be above normal until a front moves through the area on
Saturday.  This same front will bring a chance of rain with it
Friday Night into Saturday.  Models were in relatively good
agreement and generally followed.

It still appears that a shortwave trough will eject out of the
longwave trough currently over the western CONUS.  This first
shortwave will round the base of the longwave tonight and reach the
upper Midwest by Saturday morning.  This will cause the front
currently over the Great Plains to move through Missouri during the
day on Saturday.  Still expect rain to develop over the area on
Friday night as some low level moisture convergence increases ahead
of the shortwave trough.  The rain will continue into Saturday, with
likely PoPs over southeast Missouri into southern Illinois where the
GFS depicts strong moisture convergence coupled with relatively
strong mid-level ascent associated with the shortwave trough.   Some
rain chances will linger over the southeastern part of the CWA into
Saturday evening as the front exits the area before drier air and
subsidence moves in.

Still looks like there may be some snow mixing with the rain over
parts of central and northeast Missouri as well as west central
Illinois on Saturday as temperatures cool behind the front.
Generally followed NAM and GFS MOS temps which are in good agreement
and have temperatures falling behind the front during the day on
Saturday.

(Monday through next Thursday)

Global models are in relatively good agreement that upper flow will
be  mainly zonal during this period with little storminess.  These
scenarios are not usually high confidence forecasts.  For now went
mainly dry with close to normal temperatures.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

Quiet conditions with a VFR fcst thru tonight with high pressure
dominating the area. Return flow on the backside of the high will
allow for potential LLWS tonight. The set up looks marginal attm
with sfc winds around 10kts increasing to 30kts around 1kft to
40-50kts near 2kft. Will let later shifts determine the need to
include it in the fcst. MVFR CIGs are expected to move into the
terminals late Friday mrng as better moisture works back into the
area.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR fcst thru tomorrow mrng with high pressure in control before
MVFR CIGS move into the terminal around 18Z. There is the
potential for marginal LLWS tonight but will late later shifts
address the need to include it in the fcst.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 252151
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
351 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 349 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

Return flow on the backside of a sfc high centered across the Deep
South and in advance of the next cold front currently extending
across the nthrn Plains scheduled for Saturday will keep sthrly
winds going tonight. This will aid in a warm night with lows in the
mid 30s to near 40 which is 15-20 degrees above normal. Due to the
warm conditions expected tonight and the known cool bias MOS has in
this set up, generally went above the warmest guidance. Otherwise
expect a quiet night with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.

Miller

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

(Friday through Sunday)

Have not changed much from the going forecast in that temperatures
will be above normal until a front moves through the area on
Saturday.  This same front will bring a chance of rain with it
Friday Night into Saturday.  Models were in relatively good
agreement and generally followed.

It still appears that a shortwave trough will eject out of the
longwave trough currently over the western CONUS.  This first
shortwave will round the base of the longwave tonight and reach the
upper Midwest by Saturday morning.  This will cause the front
currently over the Great Plains to move through Missouri during the
day on Saturday.  Still expect rain to develop over the area on
Friday night as some low level moisture convergence increases ahead
of the shortwave trough.  The rain will continue into Saturday, with
likely PoPs over southeast Missouri into southern Illinois where the
GFS depicts strong moisture convergence coupled with relatively
strong mid-level ascent associated with the shortwave trough.   Some
rain chances will linger over the southeastern part of the CWA into
Saturday evening as the front exits the area before drier air and
subsidence moves in.

Still looks like there may be some snow mixing with the rain over
parts of central and northeast Missouri as well as west central
Illinois on Saturday as temperatures cool behind the front.
Generally followed NAM and GFS MOS temps which are in good agreement
and have temperatures falling behind the front during the day on
Saturday.

(Monday through next Thursday)

Global models are in relatively good agreement that upper flow will
be  mainly zonal during this period with little storminess.  These
scenarios are not usually high confidence forecasts.  For now went
mainly dry with close to normal temperatures.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

Quiet conditions with a VFR fcst thru tonight with high pressure
dominating the area. Return flow on the backside of the high will
allow for potential LLWS tonight. The set up looks marginal attm
with sfc winds around 10kts increasing to 30kts around 1kft to
40-50kts near 2kft. Will let later shifts determine the need to
include it in the fcst. MVFR CIGs are expected to move into the
terminals late Friday mrng as better moisture works back into the
area.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR fcst thru tomorrow mrng with high pressure in control before
MVFR CIGS move into the terminal around 18Z. There is the
potential for marginal LLWS tonight but will late later shifts
address the need to include it in the fcst.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 252041
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
241 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 217 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Temperatures are mild this afternoon with most locations in the
lower to middle 50s. It has been a windy day with some gusts over
40 mph across portions of southeast Kansas and far western
Missouri. High clouds have started to increase once again and will
continue through out tonight. Winds will remain breezy tonight and
cloud cover will not allow temperatures to fall off too much.

Patchy drizzle will be possible as low moisture begins to move in
late tomorrow morning and tomorrow afternoon especially areas west
of Highway 65. A shortwave will move out across the central Plains
into the Midwest tomorrow night. Scattered showers will develop
after dark tomorrow and become widespread late tomorrow night into
early Saturday morning. A cold front will begin to move into the
area late tomorrow night into early on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 217 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

The models have continued to slow down the colder air on Saturday
a bit. It appears that we should remain just a cold rain as the
rain exits the area from west to east during the day on Saturday.
Temperatures will also slowly fall during the day on Saturday
behind the front but all precip should end before temperatures
reach below freezing Saturday night. No wintry weather expected
in the immediate area.

Back to seasonably cold weather is expected Sunday through Monday
and drier conditions. Models still indicate that an Arctic airmass
will come down out of Canada middle of next week. A 1055 MB plus
high will slide down the eastern front of the Rocky Mountains. The
front will move through our area pretty much uneventful Monday
night. Temperatures will fall most of the day Tuesday with strong
cold air advection.

The latest guidance shows that it will be mostly dry and just cold
for most of next week. The only thing to watch for is that the
models show upper level energy being cut off into an upper level
low across the southwestern U.S. middle of next week. There are signs
it will try to come out across the southern U.S. towards the end
of next week. Will need to keep an eye on how this system moves
out and interacts with moisture and the cold airmass.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Primary forecast concern will continue to be gusty southerly winds
today, transitioning to low level wind shear tonight. Strong low
pressure in the lee of the central Rockies will result in frequent
gusts to around 25kt at BBG/SGF and around 35kt at JLN this
afternoon. After sunset, gusts will subside a bit, but
southwesterly low level wind shear will increase. VFR conditions
are expected through tonight with a gradually increase in high
clouds. MVFR stratus is expected to develop overhead during the
mid/late morning hours Friday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND ADVISORY until 5 PM CST this afternoon FOR MOZ066-077-088-
     093-101.

KS...WIND ADVISORY until 5 PM CST this afternoon FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 252041
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
241 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 217 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Temperatures are mild this afternoon with most locations in the
lower to middle 50s. It has been a windy day with some gusts over
40 mph across portions of southeast Kansas and far western
Missouri. High clouds have started to increase once again and will
continue through out tonight. Winds will remain breezy tonight and
cloud cover will not allow temperatures to fall off too much.

Patchy drizzle will be possible as low moisture begins to move in
late tomorrow morning and tomorrow afternoon especially areas west
of Highway 65. A shortwave will move out across the central Plains
into the Midwest tomorrow night. Scattered showers will develop
after dark tomorrow and become widespread late tomorrow night into
early Saturday morning. A cold front will begin to move into the
area late tomorrow night into early on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 217 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

The models have continued to slow down the colder air on Saturday
a bit. It appears that we should remain just a cold rain as the
rain exits the area from west to east during the day on Saturday.
Temperatures will also slowly fall during the day on Saturday
behind the front but all precip should end before temperatures
reach below freezing Saturday night. No wintry weather expected
in the immediate area.

Back to seasonably cold weather is expected Sunday through Monday
and drier conditions. Models still indicate that an Arctic airmass
will come down out of Canada middle of next week. A 1055 MB plus
high will slide down the eastern front of the Rocky Mountains. The
front will move through our area pretty much uneventful Monday
night. Temperatures will fall most of the day Tuesday with strong
cold air advection.

The latest guidance shows that it will be mostly dry and just cold
for most of next week. The only thing to watch for is that the
models show upper level energy being cut off into an upper level
low across the southwestern U.S. middle of next week. There are signs
it will try to come out across the southern U.S. towards the end
of next week. Will need to keep an eye on how this system moves
out and interacts with moisture and the cold airmass.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Primary forecast concern will continue to be gusty southerly winds
today, transitioning to low level wind shear tonight. Strong low
pressure in the lee of the central Rockies will result in frequent
gusts to around 25kt at BBG/SGF and around 35kt at JLN this
afternoon. After sunset, gusts will subside a bit, but
southwesterly low level wind shear will increase. VFR conditions
are expected through tonight with a gradually increase in high
clouds. MVFR stratus is expected to develop overhead during the
mid/late morning hours Friday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND ADVISORY until 5 PM CST this afternoon FOR MOZ066-077-088-
     093-101.

KS...WIND ADVISORY until 5 PM CST this afternoon FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KEAX 251930
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
130 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

After a mild and breezy day temperatures will remain above normal
tonight and again tomorrow ahead of an approaching trough and
attendant cold front moving in from the west. Very late
tonight/early morning Friday isentropic ascent ahead of the trough
should foster the rapid development of cloud cover leading to spotty
DZ/-SHRA by the afternoon. Tomorrow night as the cold front moves in
from the northwest POPS increase for some light rain showers that
will eventually mix with light snow. QPF amounts for the CWA are in
the 0.08-0.15 inch range so what snow does develop is not expected to
amount to much... a dusting or so. The system quickly clears from
west to east Saturday morning with partial clearing and near normal
high temps in the 30s.

The CWA remains quiet on Sunday before much colder air begins to
advect into the region on Monday. At this time the NWP consensus
maintains very slight chance POPS behind a cold frontal passage
Monday evening into early Tuesday morning amounting to perhaps a
dusting to quarter inch of fluffy snow.  The northwest portion of
the CWA has the best chance for seeing light snow.  Otherwise
Tuesday through the rest of the periods should be dry with
temperatures well below normal.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

VFR conditions will persist through much of the period. Tight
pressure gradient across the region will allow higher momentum winds
to transfer to the surface resulting in gusty surface winds
continuing through the daylight hours. The gradient will relax and
winds decreasing with loss of diurnal heating. Mid and high Clouds
will increase as cold front approaches the terminals by 12Z. MVFR
ceilings will begin to build in by late in the prevailing TAF period
and will be dependent on the timing of the frontal passage.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...PMM






000
FXUS63 KEAX 251930
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
130 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

After a mild and breezy day temperatures will remain above normal
tonight and again tomorrow ahead of an approaching trough and
attendant cold front moving in from the west. Very late
tonight/early morning Friday isentropic ascent ahead of the trough
should foster the rapid development of cloud cover leading to spotty
DZ/-SHRA by the afternoon. Tomorrow night as the cold front moves in
from the northwest POPS increase for some light rain showers that
will eventually mix with light snow. QPF amounts for the CWA are in
the 0.08-0.15 inch range so what snow does develop is not expected to
amount to much... a dusting or so. The system quickly clears from
west to east Saturday morning with partial clearing and near normal
high temps in the 30s.

The CWA remains quiet on Sunday before much colder air begins to
advect into the region on Monday. At this time the NWP consensus
maintains very slight chance POPS behind a cold frontal passage
Monday evening into early Tuesday morning amounting to perhaps a
dusting to quarter inch of fluffy snow.  The northwest portion of
the CWA has the best chance for seeing light snow.  Otherwise
Tuesday through the rest of the periods should be dry with
temperatures well below normal.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

VFR conditions will persist through much of the period. Tight
pressure gradient across the region will allow higher momentum winds
to transfer to the surface resulting in gusty surface winds
continuing through the daylight hours. The gradient will relax and
winds decreasing with loss of diurnal heating. Mid and high Clouds
will increase as cold front approaches the terminals by 12Z. MVFR
ceilings will begin to build in by late in the prevailing TAF period
and will be dependent on the timing of the frontal passage.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...PMM






000
FXUS63 KEAX 251930
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
130 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

After a mild and breezy day temperatures will remain above normal
tonight and again tomorrow ahead of an approaching trough and
attendant cold front moving in from the west. Very late
tonight/early morning Friday isentropic ascent ahead of the trough
should foster the rapid development of cloud cover leading to spotty
DZ/-SHRA by the afternoon. Tomorrow night as the cold front moves in
from the northwest POPS increase for some light rain showers that
will eventually mix with light snow. QPF amounts for the CWA are in
the 0.08-0.15 inch range so what snow does develop is not expected to
amount to much... a dusting or so. The system quickly clears from
west to east Saturday morning with partial clearing and near normal
high temps in the 30s.

The CWA remains quiet on Sunday before much colder air begins to
advect into the region on Monday. At this time the NWP consensus
maintains very slight chance POPS behind a cold frontal passage
Monday evening into early Tuesday morning amounting to perhaps a
dusting to quarter inch of fluffy snow.  The northwest portion of
the CWA has the best chance for seeing light snow.  Otherwise
Tuesday through the rest of the periods should be dry with
temperatures well below normal.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

VFR conditions will persist through much of the period. Tight
pressure gradient across the region will allow higher momentum winds
to transfer to the surface resulting in gusty surface winds
continuing through the daylight hours. The gradient will relax and
winds decreasing with loss of diurnal heating. Mid and high Clouds
will increase as cold front approaches the terminals by 12Z. MVFR
ceilings will begin to build in by late in the prevailing TAF period
and will be dependent on the timing of the frontal passage.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...PMM






000
FXUS63 KEAX 251930
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
130 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

After a mild and breezy day temperatures will remain above normal
tonight and again tomorrow ahead of an approaching trough and
attendant cold front moving in from the west. Very late
tonight/early morning Friday isentropic ascent ahead of the trough
should foster the rapid development of cloud cover leading to spotty
DZ/-SHRA by the afternoon. Tomorrow night as the cold front moves in
from the northwest POPS increase for some light rain showers that
will eventually mix with light snow. QPF amounts for the CWA are in
the 0.08-0.15 inch range so what snow does develop is not expected to
amount to much... a dusting or so. The system quickly clears from
west to east Saturday morning with partial clearing and near normal
high temps in the 30s.

The CWA remains quiet on Sunday before much colder air begins to
advect into the region on Monday. At this time the NWP consensus
maintains very slight chance POPS behind a cold frontal passage
Monday evening into early Tuesday morning amounting to perhaps a
dusting to quarter inch of fluffy snow.  The northwest portion of
the CWA has the best chance for seeing light snow.  Otherwise
Tuesday through the rest of the periods should be dry with
temperatures well below normal.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

VFR conditions will persist through much of the period. Tight
pressure gradient across the region will allow higher momentum winds
to transfer to the surface resulting in gusty surface winds
continuing through the daylight hours. The gradient will relax and
winds decreasing with loss of diurnal heating. Mid and high Clouds
will increase as cold front approaches the terminals by 12Z. MVFR
ceilings will begin to build in by late in the prevailing TAF period
and will be dependent on the timing of the frontal passage.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...PMM






000
FXUS63 KEAX 251757
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1157 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Water vapor imagery showing deep positively tilted trough digging
along the West Coast this morning with low amplitude ridging
downstream across the Plains and Lower Missouri Vly. Temps this
morning largely residing in the lower 30s...with regional VAD wind
profiles showing a notable increase in recent hrs thanks to a
strengthening pressure gradient across the Nation/s Heartland. As has
been highlighted in recent days...ridging aloft combined with strong
thermal advection will allow for a warm Christmas Day with upper 40s
to lower 50s expected area wide this afternoon. Of concern however
will be the strengthening winds with all available guidance
suggesting sustained winds of 20-25 kts...with higher gusts /30-35 kt
range/later today. Toyed with the idea for a wind advisory across
western sections of the CWA...however have decided to hold off as
best pressure fall couplet expected to move into our region late in
the day. This should allow highest peak heating winds to occur
across the High Plains into central KS...with slightly weaker winds
downstream into our area. Regardless...this Christmas Day promises
to be warm /10-15 degrees above normal/ and breezy.

Next weather feature of interest will arrive by Friday afternoon as a
cold front starts to approach from the northwest. Out ahead of this
boundary...warm air advection and weak isentropic upglide will result
in developing -RA/DZ Friday afternoon...with a continuation right into
Saturday morning. In contrast to last night/s model runs...feature
looks much more progressive which should result in precip exiting
stage right by early Saturday afternoon. What looked like a possible
region wide snowfall is looking less and less ominous this morning as
fcst soundings show very poor moisture aloft in the ice crystal
growth region. That said...cannot rule out some light accumulations
Fri night/early Sat but accums will likely remain well under an
inch.

Heading into next week...main story will be the return of very cold
weather following the passage of a cold front Monday
afternoon/night. GFS and ECMWF very much in agreement that an airmass
with origins to northern Canada will dive south across the Plains and
Midwest as high pressure of nearly 1050-mb builds south along Front
Range. With clear skies at night...overnight lows may extend into
the single digits/lower teens Wed and Thurs mornings with highs
struggling to reach the 20 degree mark. As we stated
yesterday...enjoy the warm weather today while you can!

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

VFR conditions will persist through much of the period. Tight
pressure gradient across the region will allow higher momentum winds
to transfer to the surface resulting in gusty surface winds
continuing through the daylight hours. The gradient will relax and
winds decreasing with loss of diurnal heating. Mid and high Clouds
will increase as cold front approaches the terminals by 12Z. MVFR
ceilings will begin to build in by late in the prevailing TAF period
and will be dependent on the timing of the frontal passage.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...PMM







000
FXUS63 KEAX 251757
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1157 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Water vapor imagery showing deep positively tilted trough digging
along the West Coast this morning with low amplitude ridging
downstream across the Plains and Lower Missouri Vly. Temps this
morning largely residing in the lower 30s...with regional VAD wind
profiles showing a notable increase in recent hrs thanks to a
strengthening pressure gradient across the Nation/s Heartland. As has
been highlighted in recent days...ridging aloft combined with strong
thermal advection will allow for a warm Christmas Day with upper 40s
to lower 50s expected area wide this afternoon. Of concern however
will be the strengthening winds with all available guidance
suggesting sustained winds of 20-25 kts...with higher gusts /30-35 kt
range/later today. Toyed with the idea for a wind advisory across
western sections of the CWA...however have decided to hold off as
best pressure fall couplet expected to move into our region late in
the day. This should allow highest peak heating winds to occur
across the High Plains into central KS...with slightly weaker winds
downstream into our area. Regardless...this Christmas Day promises
to be warm /10-15 degrees above normal/ and breezy.

Next weather feature of interest will arrive by Friday afternoon as a
cold front starts to approach from the northwest. Out ahead of this
boundary...warm air advection and weak isentropic upglide will result
in developing -RA/DZ Friday afternoon...with a continuation right into
Saturday morning. In contrast to last night/s model runs...feature
looks much more progressive which should result in precip exiting
stage right by early Saturday afternoon. What looked like a possible
region wide snowfall is looking less and less ominous this morning as
fcst soundings show very poor moisture aloft in the ice crystal
growth region. That said...cannot rule out some light accumulations
Fri night/early Sat but accums will likely remain well under an
inch.

Heading into next week...main story will be the return of very cold
weather following the passage of a cold front Monday
afternoon/night. GFS and ECMWF very much in agreement that an airmass
with origins to northern Canada will dive south across the Plains and
Midwest as high pressure of nearly 1050-mb builds south along Front
Range. With clear skies at night...overnight lows may extend into
the single digits/lower teens Wed and Thurs mornings with highs
struggling to reach the 20 degree mark. As we stated
yesterday...enjoy the warm weather today while you can!

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

VFR conditions will persist through much of the period. Tight
pressure gradient across the region will allow higher momentum winds
to transfer to the surface resulting in gusty surface winds
continuing through the daylight hours. The gradient will relax and
winds decreasing with loss of diurnal heating. Mid and high Clouds
will increase as cold front approaches the terminals by 12Z. MVFR
ceilings will begin to build in by late in the prevailing TAF period
and will be dependent on the timing of the frontal passage.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...PMM







000
FXUS63 KEAX 251757
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1157 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Water vapor imagery showing deep positively tilted trough digging
along the West Coast this morning with low amplitude ridging
downstream across the Plains and Lower Missouri Vly. Temps this
morning largely residing in the lower 30s...with regional VAD wind
profiles showing a notable increase in recent hrs thanks to a
strengthening pressure gradient across the Nation/s Heartland. As has
been highlighted in recent days...ridging aloft combined with strong
thermal advection will allow for a warm Christmas Day with upper 40s
to lower 50s expected area wide this afternoon. Of concern however
will be the strengthening winds with all available guidance
suggesting sustained winds of 20-25 kts...with higher gusts /30-35 kt
range/later today. Toyed with the idea for a wind advisory across
western sections of the CWA...however have decided to hold off as
best pressure fall couplet expected to move into our region late in
the day. This should allow highest peak heating winds to occur
across the High Plains into central KS...with slightly weaker winds
downstream into our area. Regardless...this Christmas Day promises
to be warm /10-15 degrees above normal/ and breezy.

Next weather feature of interest will arrive by Friday afternoon as a
cold front starts to approach from the northwest. Out ahead of this
boundary...warm air advection and weak isentropic upglide will result
in developing -RA/DZ Friday afternoon...with a continuation right into
Saturday morning. In contrast to last night/s model runs...feature
looks much more progressive which should result in precip exiting
stage right by early Saturday afternoon. What looked like a possible
region wide snowfall is looking less and less ominous this morning as
fcst soundings show very poor moisture aloft in the ice crystal
growth region. That said...cannot rule out some light accumulations
Fri night/early Sat but accums will likely remain well under an
inch.

Heading into next week...main story will be the return of very cold
weather following the passage of a cold front Monday
afternoon/night. GFS and ECMWF very much in agreement that an airmass
with origins to northern Canada will dive south across the Plains and
Midwest as high pressure of nearly 1050-mb builds south along Front
Range. With clear skies at night...overnight lows may extend into
the single digits/lower teens Wed and Thurs mornings with highs
struggling to reach the 20 degree mark. As we stated
yesterday...enjoy the warm weather today while you can!

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

VFR conditions will persist through much of the period. Tight
pressure gradient across the region will allow higher momentum winds
to transfer to the surface resulting in gusty surface winds
continuing through the daylight hours. The gradient will relax and
winds decreasing with loss of diurnal heating. Mid and high Clouds
will increase as cold front approaches the terminals by 12Z. MVFR
ceilings will begin to build in by late in the prevailing TAF period
and will be dependent on the timing of the frontal passage.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...PMM







000
FXUS63 KEAX 251757
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1157 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Water vapor imagery showing deep positively tilted trough digging
along the West Coast this morning with low amplitude ridging
downstream across the Plains and Lower Missouri Vly. Temps this
morning largely residing in the lower 30s...with regional VAD wind
profiles showing a notable increase in recent hrs thanks to a
strengthening pressure gradient across the Nation/s Heartland. As has
been highlighted in recent days...ridging aloft combined with strong
thermal advection will allow for a warm Christmas Day with upper 40s
to lower 50s expected area wide this afternoon. Of concern however
will be the strengthening winds with all available guidance
suggesting sustained winds of 20-25 kts...with higher gusts /30-35 kt
range/later today. Toyed with the idea for a wind advisory across
western sections of the CWA...however have decided to hold off as
best pressure fall couplet expected to move into our region late in
the day. This should allow highest peak heating winds to occur
across the High Plains into central KS...with slightly weaker winds
downstream into our area. Regardless...this Christmas Day promises
to be warm /10-15 degrees above normal/ and breezy.

Next weather feature of interest will arrive by Friday afternoon as a
cold front starts to approach from the northwest. Out ahead of this
boundary...warm air advection and weak isentropic upglide will result
in developing -RA/DZ Friday afternoon...with a continuation right into
Saturday morning. In contrast to last night/s model runs...feature
looks much more progressive which should result in precip exiting
stage right by early Saturday afternoon. What looked like a possible
region wide snowfall is looking less and less ominous this morning as
fcst soundings show very poor moisture aloft in the ice crystal
growth region. That said...cannot rule out some light accumulations
Fri night/early Sat but accums will likely remain well under an
inch.

Heading into next week...main story will be the return of very cold
weather following the passage of a cold front Monday
afternoon/night. GFS and ECMWF very much in agreement that an airmass
with origins to northern Canada will dive south across the Plains and
Midwest as high pressure of nearly 1050-mb builds south along Front
Range. With clear skies at night...overnight lows may extend into
the single digits/lower teens Wed and Thurs mornings with highs
struggling to reach the 20 degree mark. As we stated
yesterday...enjoy the warm weather today while you can!

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

VFR conditions will persist through much of the period. Tight
pressure gradient across the region will allow higher momentum winds
to transfer to the surface resulting in gusty surface winds
continuing through the daylight hours. The gradient will relax and
winds decreasing with loss of diurnal heating. Mid and high Clouds
will increase as cold front approaches the terminals by 12Z. MVFR
ceilings will begin to build in by late in the prevailing TAF period
and will be dependent on the timing of the frontal passage.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...PMM







000
FXUS63 KLSX 251746
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1146 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 301 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

A weak ridge aloft was over the Plains early this morning with a
strong storm system digging thru the inter-mountain West. The only
effect of this right now was a large area of high clouds being
ejected out into the Plains. At the surface, a ridge of high
pressure was overhead with winds already backing from the SW over
much of our area, and from the S in western MO. A large area of
low clouds still prevailed over much of the forecast area, but as
of 08z, the back edge extended from near KIRK to KPOF, leaving much
of central MO clear. Temps were in the 30s area wide, but the
lowest values near the freezing mark were found where the clouds
have cleared out, although the southerly winds were preventing
them from dropping too much. The radar was pcpn echo free,
although if there was any, it was very light and likely over in
parts of southern IL.

The weak upper level ridge will move to our east this afternoon
tilting the flow from the SW aloft, while southerly flow will
strengthen at the surface. Given the current rate of clearing, we
should see the low clouds get thru the UIN area around 11z, the
STL metro area between 11-13z and the SLO area around 15z. This
will leave just some thin hi clouds to deal with the remainder of
the day and the long advertised sunny Christmas day will come to
fruition.

Given the highly anticipated decent levels of sunshine with strong
southerly flow will usually give us a diurnal swing of about 20
degrees this time of year, and so should yield upper 40s to mid
50s for max temps...from central IL to central MO. This comes
close to the higher MAV MOS numbers, although in some cases, went
above the MAV.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

Winds will continue backing tonight and become southerly to
south-southwesterly ahead of a strong low pressure system in the
southwestern CONUS. Continued WAA at low levels will produce
another warm December day with daytime highs in the lower 50s on
Friday, which is 10-15 degrees above average. A vort max will drop
down the back side of the upper trough on Friday, leading to two
separate upper disturbances. The first one will lift through the
central CONUS on Friday night and Saturday, bringing a chance of
rain to most of the CWA. This upper disturbance and its surface
reflection will send a cold front through the area on Friday night
and Saturday. It wouldn`t be surprising if a few snowflakes mixed
in with the rain on Saturday and Saturday night in the colder air,
but little to no accumulations are expected due to the brief
duration of any snow as well as the warm ground temperatures.

The second upper disturbance becomes more of an elongated and
sheared vorticity axis for a while as it moves through northern
Mexico and lifts into the southern CONUS. This system is currently
forecast to pass well south of the area on Sunday night and
Monday with no effects on sensible wx for the LSX CWA.

Meanwhile, a new trough will be developing over the western CONUS
during the early part of the week. ECMWF/GFS/GEM all show the H5
trough becoming nearly zonally oriented and closing off, although
there are differences regarding the trough axis orientation and
location of the closed H5 low. 25/00z ECMWF and GFS have very
different depictions of how this system eventually progresses
eastward late next week, which is very common for model forecasts
at extended ranges. An Arctic air mass is still expected to become
dislodged and move into the northern and central CONUS next week,
bringing well-below normal temperatures to the area. The
significance of the Arctic air mass is that it would provide
pre-existing cold air (especially at low levels) into which any
precipitation might fall once the large and complex low pressure
center finally does lift out of the southwestern CONUS late next
week and early next weekend.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

Quiet conditions with a VFR fcst thru tonight with high pressure
dominating the area. Return flow on the backside of the high will
allow for potential LLWS tonight. The set up looks marginal attm
with sfc winds around 10kts increasing to 30kts around 1kft to
40-50kts near 2kft. Will let later shifts determine the need to
include it in the fcst. MVFR CIGs are expected to move into the
terminals late Friday mrng as better moisture works back into the
area.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR fcst thru tomorrow mrng with high pressure in control before
MVFR CIGS move into the terminal around 18Z. There is the
potential for marginal LLWS tonight but will late later shifts
address the need to include it in the fcst.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 251746
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1146 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 301 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

A weak ridge aloft was over the Plains early this morning with a
strong storm system digging thru the inter-mountain West. The only
effect of this right now was a large area of high clouds being
ejected out into the Plains. At the surface, a ridge of high
pressure was overhead with winds already backing from the SW over
much of our area, and from the S in western MO. A large area of
low clouds still prevailed over much of the forecast area, but as
of 08z, the back edge extended from near KIRK to KPOF, leaving much
of central MO clear. Temps were in the 30s area wide, but the
lowest values near the freezing mark were found where the clouds
have cleared out, although the southerly winds were preventing
them from dropping too much. The radar was pcpn echo free,
although if there was any, it was very light and likely over in
parts of southern IL.

The weak upper level ridge will move to our east this afternoon
tilting the flow from the SW aloft, while southerly flow will
strengthen at the surface. Given the current rate of clearing, we
should see the low clouds get thru the UIN area around 11z, the
STL metro area between 11-13z and the SLO area around 15z. This
will leave just some thin hi clouds to deal with the remainder of
the day and the long advertised sunny Christmas day will come to
fruition.

Given the highly anticipated decent levels of sunshine with strong
southerly flow will usually give us a diurnal swing of about 20
degrees this time of year, and so should yield upper 40s to mid
50s for max temps...from central IL to central MO. This comes
close to the higher MAV MOS numbers, although in some cases, went
above the MAV.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

Winds will continue backing tonight and become southerly to
south-southwesterly ahead of a strong low pressure system in the
southwestern CONUS. Continued WAA at low levels will produce
another warm December day with daytime highs in the lower 50s on
Friday, which is 10-15 degrees above average. A vort max will drop
down the back side of the upper trough on Friday, leading to two
separate upper disturbances. The first one will lift through the
central CONUS on Friday night and Saturday, bringing a chance of
rain to most of the CWA. This upper disturbance and its surface
reflection will send a cold front through the area on Friday night
and Saturday. It wouldn`t be surprising if a few snowflakes mixed
in with the rain on Saturday and Saturday night in the colder air,
but little to no accumulations are expected due to the brief
duration of any snow as well as the warm ground temperatures.

The second upper disturbance becomes more of an elongated and
sheared vorticity axis for a while as it moves through northern
Mexico and lifts into the southern CONUS. This system is currently
forecast to pass well south of the area on Sunday night and
Monday with no effects on sensible wx for the LSX CWA.

Meanwhile, a new trough will be developing over the western CONUS
during the early part of the week. ECMWF/GFS/GEM all show the H5
trough becoming nearly zonally oriented and closing off, although
there are differences regarding the trough axis orientation and
location of the closed H5 low. 25/00z ECMWF and GFS have very
different depictions of how this system eventually progresses
eastward late next week, which is very common for model forecasts
at extended ranges. An Arctic air mass is still expected to become
dislodged and move into the northern and central CONUS next week,
bringing well-below normal temperatures to the area. The
significance of the Arctic air mass is that it would provide
pre-existing cold air (especially at low levels) into which any
precipitation might fall once the large and complex low pressure
center finally does lift out of the southwestern CONUS late next
week and early next weekend.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

Quiet conditions with a VFR fcst thru tonight with high pressure
dominating the area. Return flow on the backside of the high will
allow for potential LLWS tonight. The set up looks marginal attm
with sfc winds around 10kts increasing to 30kts around 1kft to
40-50kts near 2kft. Will let later shifts determine the need to
include it in the fcst. MVFR CIGs are expected to move into the
terminals late Friday mrng as better moisture works back into the
area.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR fcst thru tomorrow mrng with high pressure in control before
MVFR CIGS move into the terminal around 18Z. There is the
potential for marginal LLWS tonight but will late later shifts
address the need to include it in the fcst.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 251746
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1146 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 301 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

A weak ridge aloft was over the Plains early this morning with a
strong storm system digging thru the inter-mountain West. The only
effect of this right now was a large area of high clouds being
ejected out into the Plains. At the surface, a ridge of high
pressure was overhead with winds already backing from the SW over
much of our area, and from the S in western MO. A large area of
low clouds still prevailed over much of the forecast area, but as
of 08z, the back edge extended from near KIRK to KPOF, leaving much
of central MO clear. Temps were in the 30s area wide, but the
lowest values near the freezing mark were found where the clouds
have cleared out, although the southerly winds were preventing
them from dropping too much. The radar was pcpn echo free,
although if there was any, it was very light and likely over in
parts of southern IL.

The weak upper level ridge will move to our east this afternoon
tilting the flow from the SW aloft, while southerly flow will
strengthen at the surface. Given the current rate of clearing, we
should see the low clouds get thru the UIN area around 11z, the
STL metro area between 11-13z and the SLO area around 15z. This
will leave just some thin hi clouds to deal with the remainder of
the day and the long advertised sunny Christmas day will come to
fruition.

Given the highly anticipated decent levels of sunshine with strong
southerly flow will usually give us a diurnal swing of about 20
degrees this time of year, and so should yield upper 40s to mid
50s for max temps...from central IL to central MO. This comes
close to the higher MAV MOS numbers, although in some cases, went
above the MAV.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

Winds will continue backing tonight and become southerly to
south-southwesterly ahead of a strong low pressure system in the
southwestern CONUS. Continued WAA at low levels will produce
another warm December day with daytime highs in the lower 50s on
Friday, which is 10-15 degrees above average. A vort max will drop
down the back side of the upper trough on Friday, leading to two
separate upper disturbances. The first one will lift through the
central CONUS on Friday night and Saturday, bringing a chance of
rain to most of the CWA. This upper disturbance and its surface
reflection will send a cold front through the area on Friday night
and Saturday. It wouldn`t be surprising if a few snowflakes mixed
in with the rain on Saturday and Saturday night in the colder air,
but little to no accumulations are expected due to the brief
duration of any snow as well as the warm ground temperatures.

The second upper disturbance becomes more of an elongated and
sheared vorticity axis for a while as it moves through northern
Mexico and lifts into the southern CONUS. This system is currently
forecast to pass well south of the area on Sunday night and
Monday with no effects on sensible wx for the LSX CWA.

Meanwhile, a new trough will be developing over the western CONUS
during the early part of the week. ECMWF/GFS/GEM all show the H5
trough becoming nearly zonally oriented and closing off, although
there are differences regarding the trough axis orientation and
location of the closed H5 low. 25/00z ECMWF and GFS have very
different depictions of how this system eventually progresses
eastward late next week, which is very common for model forecasts
at extended ranges. An Arctic air mass is still expected to become
dislodged and move into the northern and central CONUS next week,
bringing well-below normal temperatures to the area. The
significance of the Arctic air mass is that it would provide
pre-existing cold air (especially at low levels) into which any
precipitation might fall once the large and complex low pressure
center finally does lift out of the southwestern CONUS late next
week and early next weekend.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

Quiet conditions with a VFR fcst thru tonight with high pressure
dominating the area. Return flow on the backside of the high will
allow for potential LLWS tonight. The set up looks marginal attm
with sfc winds around 10kts increasing to 30kts around 1kft to
40-50kts near 2kft. Will let later shifts determine the need to
include it in the fcst. MVFR CIGs are expected to move into the
terminals late Friday mrng as better moisture works back into the
area.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR fcst thru tomorrow mrng with high pressure in control before
MVFR CIGS move into the terminal around 18Z. There is the
potential for marginal LLWS tonight but will late later shifts
address the need to include it in the fcst.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 251746
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1146 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 301 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

A weak ridge aloft was over the Plains early this morning with a
strong storm system digging thru the inter-mountain West. The only
effect of this right now was a large area of high clouds being
ejected out into the Plains. At the surface, a ridge of high
pressure was overhead with winds already backing from the SW over
much of our area, and from the S in western MO. A large area of
low clouds still prevailed over much of the forecast area, but as
of 08z, the back edge extended from near KIRK to KPOF, leaving much
of central MO clear. Temps were in the 30s area wide, but the
lowest values near the freezing mark were found where the clouds
have cleared out, although the southerly winds were preventing
them from dropping too much. The radar was pcpn echo free,
although if there was any, it was very light and likely over in
parts of southern IL.

The weak upper level ridge will move to our east this afternoon
tilting the flow from the SW aloft, while southerly flow will
strengthen at the surface. Given the current rate of clearing, we
should see the low clouds get thru the UIN area around 11z, the
STL metro area between 11-13z and the SLO area around 15z. This
will leave just some thin hi clouds to deal with the remainder of
the day and the long advertised sunny Christmas day will come to
fruition.

Given the highly anticipated decent levels of sunshine with strong
southerly flow will usually give us a diurnal swing of about 20
degrees this time of year, and so should yield upper 40s to mid
50s for max temps...from central IL to central MO. This comes
close to the higher MAV MOS numbers, although in some cases, went
above the MAV.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

Winds will continue backing tonight and become southerly to
south-southwesterly ahead of a strong low pressure system in the
southwestern CONUS. Continued WAA at low levels will produce
another warm December day with daytime highs in the lower 50s on
Friday, which is 10-15 degrees above average. A vort max will drop
down the back side of the upper trough on Friday, leading to two
separate upper disturbances. The first one will lift through the
central CONUS on Friday night and Saturday, bringing a chance of
rain to most of the CWA. This upper disturbance and its surface
reflection will send a cold front through the area on Friday night
and Saturday. It wouldn`t be surprising if a few snowflakes mixed
in with the rain on Saturday and Saturday night in the colder air,
but little to no accumulations are expected due to the brief
duration of any snow as well as the warm ground temperatures.

The second upper disturbance becomes more of an elongated and
sheared vorticity axis for a while as it moves through northern
Mexico and lifts into the southern CONUS. This system is currently
forecast to pass well south of the area on Sunday night and
Monday with no effects on sensible wx for the LSX CWA.

Meanwhile, a new trough will be developing over the western CONUS
during the early part of the week. ECMWF/GFS/GEM all show the H5
trough becoming nearly zonally oriented and closing off, although
there are differences regarding the trough axis orientation and
location of the closed H5 low. 25/00z ECMWF and GFS have very
different depictions of how this system eventually progresses
eastward late next week, which is very common for model forecasts
at extended ranges. An Arctic air mass is still expected to become
dislodged and move into the northern and central CONUS next week,
bringing well-below normal temperatures to the area. The
significance of the Arctic air mass is that it would provide
pre-existing cold air (especially at low levels) into which any
precipitation might fall once the large and complex low pressure
center finally does lift out of the southwestern CONUS late next
week and early next weekend.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

Quiet conditions with a VFR fcst thru tonight with high pressure
dominating the area. Return flow on the backside of the high will
allow for potential LLWS tonight. The set up looks marginal attm
with sfc winds around 10kts increasing to 30kts around 1kft to
40-50kts near 2kft. Will let later shifts determine the need to
include it in the fcst. MVFR CIGs are expected to move into the
terminals late Friday mrng as better moisture works back into the
area.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR fcst thru tomorrow mrng with high pressure in control before
MVFR CIGS move into the terminal around 18Z. There is the
potential for marginal LLWS tonight but will late later shifts
address the need to include it in the fcst.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 251741 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1141 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 215 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Stratus has cleared to the east over the past several hours and we
briefly have a totally clear sky across the CWA. Some high clouds
were streaming towards the area from the west early this morning.

Upper trough has shifted east of the area into the TN/OH valley
region with a ridge building in. Surface winds were beginning to
back to the south and 850 winds to the southwest setting up some
low level warm advection. Pressure gradient is expected to tighten
up over the area today with low pressure developing across the
high Plains leading to windy conditions, especially over our
western CWA. This will be the main focus in the short term period.

Focus will shift to precipitation chances late Friday into Friday
night as a frontal boundary pushes into the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 215 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Very windy conditions are expected across our western CWA today as
the pressure gradient tightens up over the region. While mixing
heights will not be all that high today, winds will be fairly
strong at the mixing level and we are expecting to reach advisory
criteria over extreme southeast Kansas into far southwest Missouri
from late morning into the mid afternoon hours. Winds of 30 to 45
mph will be possible during that time. Further east, it will be
breezy to windy as well, but not strong enough to reach advisory
criteria. In addition, the wind will combine with temperatures
rising into the 50s and dry conditions to produce some elevated
fire weather conditions over roughly the same locations as the
wind advisory will cover. Winds should begin to subside by late
afternoon, but will probably remain gusty into the evening.

Temperatures today should reach the low to mid 50s with lows
tonight from the mid 30s to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

On Friday a cold front will begin to move through the area from
northwest to southeast. Should be enough warming to occur ahead of
the front to reach the low to mid 50s once again. Light rain will
be possible late in the day and into Friday night. The colder air
will lag a bit behind the front, but will begin to advance into
the area late Friday night into Saturday. Models have trended
towards ending the precipitation earlier and have reduced
precipitation chances from northwest to southeast on Saturday as
drier air works into the region.

A colder Canadian air mass will work into the area behind a
secondary cold front which will move in late Monday into Monday
night. Precipitation chances look fairly minimal at this point and
have removed any mention of precipitation from the forecast on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will be significantly colder
by the middle of next week as this air mass moves in with highs in
the 20s and 30s and lows in the teens to 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Primary forecast concern will continue to be gusty southerly winds
today, transitioning to low level wind shear tonight. Strong low
pressure in the lee of the central Rockies will result in frequent
gusts to around 25kt at BBG/SGF and around 35kt at JLN this
afternoon. After sunset, gusts will subside a bit, but
southwesterly low level wind shear will increase. VFR conditions
are expected through tonight with a gradually increase in high
clouds. MVFR stratus is expected to develop overhead during the
mid/late morning hours Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND ADVISORY until 5 PM CST this afternoon FOR MOZ066-077-088-
     093-101.

KS...WIND ADVISORY until 5 PM CST this afternoon FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 251741 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1141 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 215 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Stratus has cleared to the east over the past several hours and we
briefly have a totally clear sky across the CWA. Some high clouds
were streaming towards the area from the west early this morning.

Upper trough has shifted east of the area into the TN/OH valley
region with a ridge building in. Surface winds were beginning to
back to the south and 850 winds to the southwest setting up some
low level warm advection. Pressure gradient is expected to tighten
up over the area today with low pressure developing across the
high Plains leading to windy conditions, especially over our
western CWA. This will be the main focus in the short term period.

Focus will shift to precipitation chances late Friday into Friday
night as a frontal boundary pushes into the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 215 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Very windy conditions are expected across our western CWA today as
the pressure gradient tightens up over the region. While mixing
heights will not be all that high today, winds will be fairly
strong at the mixing level and we are expecting to reach advisory
criteria over extreme southeast Kansas into far southwest Missouri
from late morning into the mid afternoon hours. Winds of 30 to 45
mph will be possible during that time. Further east, it will be
breezy to windy as well, but not strong enough to reach advisory
criteria. In addition, the wind will combine with temperatures
rising into the 50s and dry conditions to produce some elevated
fire weather conditions over roughly the same locations as the
wind advisory will cover. Winds should begin to subside by late
afternoon, but will probably remain gusty into the evening.

Temperatures today should reach the low to mid 50s with lows
tonight from the mid 30s to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

On Friday a cold front will begin to move through the area from
northwest to southeast. Should be enough warming to occur ahead of
the front to reach the low to mid 50s once again. Light rain will
be possible late in the day and into Friday night. The colder air
will lag a bit behind the front, but will begin to advance into
the area late Friday night into Saturday. Models have trended
towards ending the precipitation earlier and have reduced
precipitation chances from northwest to southeast on Saturday as
drier air works into the region.

A colder Canadian air mass will work into the area behind a
secondary cold front which will move in late Monday into Monday
night. Precipitation chances look fairly minimal at this point and
have removed any mention of precipitation from the forecast on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will be significantly colder
by the middle of next week as this air mass moves in with highs in
the 20s and 30s and lows in the teens to 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Primary forecast concern will continue to be gusty southerly winds
today, transitioning to low level wind shear tonight. Strong low
pressure in the lee of the central Rockies will result in frequent
gusts to around 25kt at BBG/SGF and around 35kt at JLN this
afternoon. After sunset, gusts will subside a bit, but
southwesterly low level wind shear will increase. VFR conditions
are expected through tonight with a gradually increase in high
clouds. MVFR stratus is expected to develop overhead during the
mid/late morning hours Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND ADVISORY until 5 PM CST this afternoon FOR MOZ066-077-088-
     093-101.

KS...WIND ADVISORY until 5 PM CST this afternoon FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Gagan







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