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000
FXUS63 KLSX 311752
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1252 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

NW flow and dry conditions in place today and tonight. An impulse
embedded in the NW flow will drag a weak cold front thru the FA
today but with limited moisture to work with...should be a dry
FROPA. The front settles well south of the area by Wed mrng. There
is an outside chance that this feature may spark off some very isld
convection across sthrn IL/MO late this aftn/evng. Chances look
minimal with slightly better chances just south of the CWA.

2%

.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

Upper lvl ridge slides across the region on Wed with a significant
short wave following closely behind along the US/Canadian border
with a weakness in the heights extending SW to a short wave coming
on shore along the west coast Wed night. The lead short wave will
induce a low to dvlp across the nthrn high plains and move east
along the international border Tue night lifting into sthrn Canada
Wed. This feature will drive a cold front into the cntrl CONUS for
the end of the work week. Weak sfc ridge slides east of the CWA by
Wed putting the region in sthrly flow between the retreating high and
the approaching bndry. Winds are expected to become rather gusty by
Wed aftn. Strong WWA and decent bndry layer moisture may be
sufficient to produce a few isld SHRA/TSMs Wed aftn...primarily
across MO where the better moisture and instability should reside.
The better chances of precip on Wed appear to be across SW MO where
the tail end of the weak cold front from Tue attempts to lift back
north. Wed should be the warmest day of the week with the strong
sthrly flow.

The cold front approaches the area Wed night with most guidance in
agreement...timing wise...bringing the bndry into the NE CWA around
12Z Thu. The front makes steady progress south thru the day and
should exit the sthrn FA around 00Z Fri. The bndry slows Thu night
due to an area of low pressure that is fcst to form along the tail
end of the bndry across the sthrn high plains in response to the
trailing short wave. The low is fcst to track from AR to the OH
vly on Fri ending the precip threat by aftn. It still appears that
the nthrn CWA`s best chance for precip will be with FROPA Thu mrng
with the remainder of the precip Thu night and Fri being along and
south of I70. Thunder is expected to accompany the front on Thu but
should be confined closer to the front across the sthrn FA Thu
night and Fri.

Temps on Thu will depend on frontal timing/position and assoc
precip. The slower either are then the warmer temps will be. Fri
will be a cool day with plenty of clouds and precip. Friday will
be a cloudy cool damp day with highs mainly in the 50s.

A low amplitude upper lvl ridge will attempt to build into the
region over the wknd with a sfc ridge moves from the cntrl plains to
the TN vly. It should be a decent wknd with mostly clear skies and
seasonal temps. Upper flow is fcst to transition to a broad SW
flow...so chance PoPs have been introduced for the beginning of
the week.

2%

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

Northerly flow and VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail
today and into tonight. There is a chance for isolated
thunderstorms across parts of the eastern Ozarks this afternoon in
the vicinity of a cold front which passed through most of the area
this morning. The storm threat should end by 00Z or shortly
thereafter. VFR flight conditions will continue tonight and into
Wednesday. Wind will become light and variable tonight, then turn
to the south-southeast Wednesday morning. Expect wind to increase
through the morning and become gusty Wednesday afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

Northerly flow and VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail
at Lambert into early evening. VFR flight conditions will
continue into Wednesday. Wind will become light and variable
tonight, then turn to the south-southeast Wednesday morning.
Expect wind to increase through the morning and become gusty
Wednesday afternoon.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 311752
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1252 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

NW flow and dry conditions in place today and tonight. An impulse
embedded in the NW flow will drag a weak cold front thru the FA
today but with limited moisture to work with...should be a dry
FROPA. The front settles well south of the area by Wed mrng. There
is an outside chance that this feature may spark off some very isld
convection across sthrn IL/MO late this aftn/evng. Chances look
minimal with slightly better chances just south of the CWA.

2%

.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

Upper lvl ridge slides across the region on Wed with a significant
short wave following closely behind along the US/Canadian border
with a weakness in the heights extending SW to a short wave coming
on shore along the west coast Wed night. The lead short wave will
induce a low to dvlp across the nthrn high plains and move east
along the international border Tue night lifting into sthrn Canada
Wed. This feature will drive a cold front into the cntrl CONUS for
the end of the work week. Weak sfc ridge slides east of the CWA by
Wed putting the region in sthrly flow between the retreating high and
the approaching bndry. Winds are expected to become rather gusty by
Wed aftn. Strong WWA and decent bndry layer moisture may be
sufficient to produce a few isld SHRA/TSMs Wed aftn...primarily
across MO where the better moisture and instability should reside.
The better chances of precip on Wed appear to be across SW MO where
the tail end of the weak cold front from Tue attempts to lift back
north. Wed should be the warmest day of the week with the strong
sthrly flow.

The cold front approaches the area Wed night with most guidance in
agreement...timing wise...bringing the bndry into the NE CWA around
12Z Thu. The front makes steady progress south thru the day and
should exit the sthrn FA around 00Z Fri. The bndry slows Thu night
due to an area of low pressure that is fcst to form along the tail
end of the bndry across the sthrn high plains in response to the
trailing short wave. The low is fcst to track from AR to the OH
vly on Fri ending the precip threat by aftn. It still appears that
the nthrn CWA`s best chance for precip will be with FROPA Thu mrng
with the remainder of the precip Thu night and Fri being along and
south of I70. Thunder is expected to accompany the front on Thu but
should be confined closer to the front across the sthrn FA Thu
night and Fri.

Temps on Thu will depend on frontal timing/position and assoc
precip. The slower either are then the warmer temps will be. Fri
will be a cool day with plenty of clouds and precip. Friday will
be a cloudy cool damp day with highs mainly in the 50s.

A low amplitude upper lvl ridge will attempt to build into the
region over the wknd with a sfc ridge moves from the cntrl plains to
the TN vly. It should be a decent wknd with mostly clear skies and
seasonal temps. Upper flow is fcst to transition to a broad SW
flow...so chance PoPs have been introduced for the beginning of
the week.

2%

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

Northerly flow and VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail
today and into tonight. There is a chance for isolated
thunderstorms across parts of the eastern Ozarks this afternoon in
the vicinity of a cold front which passed through most of the area
this morning. The storm threat should end by 00Z or shortly
thereafter. VFR flight conditions will continue tonight and into
Wednesday. Wind will become light and variable tonight, then turn
to the south-southeast Wednesday morning. Expect wind to increase
through the morning and become gusty Wednesday afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

Northerly flow and VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail
at Lambert into early evening. VFR flight conditions will
continue into Wednesday. Wind will become light and variable
tonight, then turn to the south-southeast Wednesday morning.
Expect wind to increase through the morning and become gusty
Wednesday afternoon.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KSGF 311744
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1244 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1110 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Low level moisture has increased quite a bit this morning across
southern Missouri ahead of a frontal boundary. Late morning
surface dew points had risen into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Low
clouds have also developed across southwest Missouri in response
to the increasing moisture. Meanwhile, a mid/upper level short
wave trough was in the process of moving southeast into
northeastern Kansas.

As we head into this afternoon, that front will slowly seep south
across southern Missouri with the approaching wave. Short range
models have been insistent on developing scattered convection
across south-central Missouri from early to mid afternoon. The big
question is how much of a capping inversion will remain in place.
Models are actually increasing the capping strength this afternoon
from west to east across southern Missouri. A look at upstream
RAOBs would support this increase in cap strength. It does appear
that there will still be a window of opportunity along and east of
U.S. 65 and south of I-44 where mid-level temperatures will remain
coolest into this afternoon.

With that being said, MLCAPE values in the 1400-1800 J/kg range
appear quite plausible. 0-6 km bulk shear will be in the 30-35
knot range which will support some updraft organization. We have
therefore included a limited large hail risk (up to the size of
quarters) in the HWO.

Any convection that develops will begin to diminish and shift
south of the area by early this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A warm day is in store across the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern
Kansas as a weak front drops southward into the area this
afternoon. Southerly winds to start the day and 850 MB
temperatures in the 10 to 13 degree Celsius range will support
highs in the lower and middle 70s.

Moisture will advect northward ahead of the slowly advancing
front. Just enough low level convergence coupled with modest
instability could trigger isolated convection across far southern
Missouri this afternoon.

This activity will diminish with sunset while the front stalls
from northern Oklahoma into northern Arkansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Another warm day can be expected Wednesday. Southerly winds will
be on the increase as a front takes shape over the plains.
Isolated convection again cannot be ruled beginning as Wednesday
morning and throughout the day as the boundary lifts north as a
warm front.

The cold front will advance southeastward Wednesday night into
Thursday as an upper level trough digs into the western U.S.
Convection will develop across the Plains into the upper Midwest
Wednesday and Wednesday night along the advancing front then
spread southeastward toward the Ozarks and Osage Plains late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. It appears that we may
first deal with decaying convection in this time frame. The
question then becomes how far south the front advances Thursday as
a shortwave trough approaches from the west.

Indications are that the front will stall somewhat across the
area with showers and thunderstorms redeveloping Thursday afternoon
into Thursday night. While the extent of surface heating is in
question for Thursday there will likely be sufficient instability given
steepening lapse rates coupled with strong deep layer shear to
support some strong to potentially severe storms Thursday
afternoon into Thursday evening ahead of the front across far
southern Missouri.

Expect post frontal showers and embedded thunder to continue into
Thursday night before ending Friday morning as the shortwave
trough tracks eastward and front sags southward. Training
convection could result in heavy rainfall totals and a risk for
localized flooding later Thursday.

Much cooler temperatures will follow the frontal passage for
Friday with a gradual warming trend over the weekend. Medium range
models suggest active weather returns early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MVFR ceilings will improve to VFR for most of southern Missouri
this afternoon. A cold front will push into southern Missouri and
is expected to produce scattered thunderstorms over south-central
Missouri. Some of this activity is expected to develop in the
vicinity of the Branson terminal.

Any thunderstorm activity will quickly diminish this evening with
dry weather expected overnight. Some weather models are indicating
returning MVFR conditions (ceilings and visibilities) late tonight
or early Wednesday morning across portions of southern Missouri.
The greatest prospects for this occurring will be around Joplin
and Branson.

Winds will also increase out of the southeast on Wednesday and
will exceed 12 knots at Joplin and Springfield.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 311744
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1244 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1110 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Low level moisture has increased quite a bit this morning across
southern Missouri ahead of a frontal boundary. Late morning
surface dew points had risen into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Low
clouds have also developed across southwest Missouri in response
to the increasing moisture. Meanwhile, a mid/upper level short
wave trough was in the process of moving southeast into
northeastern Kansas.

As we head into this afternoon, that front will slowly seep south
across southern Missouri with the approaching wave. Short range
models have been insistent on developing scattered convection
across south-central Missouri from early to mid afternoon. The big
question is how much of a capping inversion will remain in place.
Models are actually increasing the capping strength this afternoon
from west to east across southern Missouri. A look at upstream
RAOBs would support this increase in cap strength. It does appear
that there will still be a window of opportunity along and east of
U.S. 65 and south of I-44 where mid-level temperatures will remain
coolest into this afternoon.

With that being said, MLCAPE values in the 1400-1800 J/kg range
appear quite plausible. 0-6 km bulk shear will be in the 30-35
knot range which will support some updraft organization. We have
therefore included a limited large hail risk (up to the size of
quarters) in the HWO.

Any convection that develops will begin to diminish and shift
south of the area by early this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A warm day is in store across the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern
Kansas as a weak front drops southward into the area this
afternoon. Southerly winds to start the day and 850 MB
temperatures in the 10 to 13 degree Celsius range will support
highs in the lower and middle 70s.

Moisture will advect northward ahead of the slowly advancing
front. Just enough low level convergence coupled with modest
instability could trigger isolated convection across far southern
Missouri this afternoon.

This activity will diminish with sunset while the front stalls
from northern Oklahoma into northern Arkansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Another warm day can be expected Wednesday. Southerly winds will
be on the increase as a front takes shape over the plains.
Isolated convection again cannot be ruled beginning as Wednesday
morning and throughout the day as the boundary lifts north as a
warm front.

The cold front will advance southeastward Wednesday night into
Thursday as an upper level trough digs into the western U.S.
Convection will develop across the Plains into the upper Midwest
Wednesday and Wednesday night along the advancing front then
spread southeastward toward the Ozarks and Osage Plains late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. It appears that we may
first deal with decaying convection in this time frame. The
question then becomes how far south the front advances Thursday as
a shortwave trough approaches from the west.

Indications are that the front will stall somewhat across the
area with showers and thunderstorms redeveloping Thursday afternoon
into Thursday night. While the extent of surface heating is in
question for Thursday there will likely be sufficient instability given
steepening lapse rates coupled with strong deep layer shear to
support some strong to potentially severe storms Thursday
afternoon into Thursday evening ahead of the front across far
southern Missouri.

Expect post frontal showers and embedded thunder to continue into
Thursday night before ending Friday morning as the shortwave
trough tracks eastward and front sags southward. Training
convection could result in heavy rainfall totals and a risk for
localized flooding later Thursday.

Much cooler temperatures will follow the frontal passage for
Friday with a gradual warming trend over the weekend. Medium range
models suggest active weather returns early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MVFR ceilings will improve to VFR for most of southern Missouri
this afternoon. A cold front will push into southern Missouri and
is expected to produce scattered thunderstorms over south-central
Missouri. Some of this activity is expected to develop in the
vicinity of the Branson terminal.

Any thunderstorm activity will quickly diminish this evening with
dry weather expected overnight. Some weather models are indicating
returning MVFR conditions (ceilings and visibilities) late tonight
or early Wednesday morning across portions of southern Missouri.
The greatest prospects for this occurring will be around Joplin
and Branson.

Winds will also increase out of the southeast on Wednesday and
will exceed 12 knots at Joplin and Springfield.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Schaumann





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KEAX 311706
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1206 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Water vapor showing well-established northwest flow across the
Nation/s Heartland this morning with several individual shortwaves
approaching from the northern High Plains. Fortunately with no
moisture to work with...these disturbances will pass with little
fanfare. Along the sfc...high pressure across western NE this
morning will continue settling to the east-southeast today which
should result in a much less windy afternoon. This will be a
welcomed relief for those with fire weather concerns as dry
conditions will prevail today as temps warm into the lower to middle
70s. Very little to speak of during the overnight period tonight as
dry conditions and limited cloud cover should allow temps to fall
back into the upper 40s to lower 50s early Wednesday morning.

Wx to become more interesting on Wednesday as high pressure exits to
the east and return flow is reestablished following the passage of a
warm front during the mid-morning hrs. Meanwhile...decent pressure
falls off to our west will allow for gusty south winds during the
afternoon with a sharpening frontal boundary beginning to work
through central Kansas and Nebraska. Fcst models continue to show
developing convection along this boundary during the afternoon hrs
with increasing wind fields aloft supporting possible severe wx
development to our northwest during the afternoon. Orientation of
0-6km bulk shear vectors will likely support isolated cells
initially...but as upper flow becomes more parallel to the
strengthening frontal zone by late afternoon/early evening...convection
should take on a linear morphology as it approaches our northwestern
zones Wed night. That said...fcst models continue to highlight
decreasing instability during the evening/overnight period as main
frontal boundary begins to carve its way south across the CWA.
Additionally...models continue to advertise the heaviest activity
occurring behind the front with main inflow remaining parallel to the
frontal boundary. This should limit the overall severe threat across
our zones as boundary layer stabilization occurs immediately behind
the front. The exception will be across the far northwest where any
pre-frontal activity may be surface based prior to being undercut by
the approaching boundary. Also of concern will be the potential for
highly efficient rainfall production as slow frontal movement
combines with PWAT values of 3 to 4 standard deviations above normal.
As stated above...low-level inflow parallel to the front combined
with the release of elevated instability could lead to periods of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Would not be surprised if
rainfall totals exceed 1-2" in some locations.

Front to slowly move through the area Thursday morning with precip
gradually coming to an end from north to south through the day.
Another weak shortwave to approach from the west Thursday night which
may result in some additional light shwrs however limited moisture
may keep any shwr activity at bay. Rain chances look to increase on
Friday as another disturbance tracks east along the stalled front to
our south. Beyond this...much of the weekend looks to remain dry and
seasonable with rain chances increasing early next week as another
front begins to work through the Plains/lwr Missouri Vly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. East
northeast winds will gradually become light and variable tonight,
then will increase out of the SSE by mid-morning Wednesday, at speeds
generally between 10 and 20 kts. A few scattered clouds will begin to
build in by the end of the forecast period, but bases should remain
above 5 kft.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KEAX 311706
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1206 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Water vapor showing well-established northwest flow across the
Nation/s Heartland this morning with several individual shortwaves
approaching from the northern High Plains. Fortunately with no
moisture to work with...these disturbances will pass with little
fanfare. Along the sfc...high pressure across western NE this
morning will continue settling to the east-southeast today which
should result in a much less windy afternoon. This will be a
welcomed relief for those with fire weather concerns as dry
conditions will prevail today as temps warm into the lower to middle
70s. Very little to speak of during the overnight period tonight as
dry conditions and limited cloud cover should allow temps to fall
back into the upper 40s to lower 50s early Wednesday morning.

Wx to become more interesting on Wednesday as high pressure exits to
the east and return flow is reestablished following the passage of a
warm front during the mid-morning hrs. Meanwhile...decent pressure
falls off to our west will allow for gusty south winds during the
afternoon with a sharpening frontal boundary beginning to work
through central Kansas and Nebraska. Fcst models continue to show
developing convection along this boundary during the afternoon hrs
with increasing wind fields aloft supporting possible severe wx
development to our northwest during the afternoon. Orientation of
0-6km bulk shear vectors will likely support isolated cells
initially...but as upper flow becomes more parallel to the
strengthening frontal zone by late afternoon/early evening...convection
should take on a linear morphology as it approaches our northwestern
zones Wed night. That said...fcst models continue to highlight
decreasing instability during the evening/overnight period as main
frontal boundary begins to carve its way south across the CWA.
Additionally...models continue to advertise the heaviest activity
occurring behind the front with main inflow remaining parallel to the
frontal boundary. This should limit the overall severe threat across
our zones as boundary layer stabilization occurs immediately behind
the front. The exception will be across the far northwest where any
pre-frontal activity may be surface based prior to being undercut by
the approaching boundary. Also of concern will be the potential for
highly efficient rainfall production as slow frontal movement
combines with PWAT values of 3 to 4 standard deviations above normal.
As stated above...low-level inflow parallel to the front combined
with the release of elevated instability could lead to periods of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Would not be surprised if
rainfall totals exceed 1-2" in some locations.

Front to slowly move through the area Thursday morning with precip
gradually coming to an end from north to south through the day.
Another weak shortwave to approach from the west Thursday night which
may result in some additional light shwrs however limited moisture
may keep any shwr activity at bay. Rain chances look to increase on
Friday as another disturbance tracks east along the stalled front to
our south. Beyond this...much of the weekend looks to remain dry and
seasonable with rain chances increasing early next week as another
front begins to work through the Plains/lwr Missouri Vly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. East
northeast winds will gradually become light and variable tonight,
then will increase out of the SSE by mid-morning Wednesday, at speeds
generally between 10 and 20 kts. A few scattered clouds will begin to
build in by the end of the forecast period, but bases should remain
above 5 kft.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 311706
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1206 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Water vapor showing well-established northwest flow across the
Nation/s Heartland this morning with several individual shortwaves
approaching from the northern High Plains. Fortunately with no
moisture to work with...these disturbances will pass with little
fanfare. Along the sfc...high pressure across western NE this
morning will continue settling to the east-southeast today which
should result in a much less windy afternoon. This will be a
welcomed relief for those with fire weather concerns as dry
conditions will prevail today as temps warm into the lower to middle
70s. Very little to speak of during the overnight period tonight as
dry conditions and limited cloud cover should allow temps to fall
back into the upper 40s to lower 50s early Wednesday morning.

Wx to become more interesting on Wednesday as high pressure exits to
the east and return flow is reestablished following the passage of a
warm front during the mid-morning hrs. Meanwhile...decent pressure
falls off to our west will allow for gusty south winds during the
afternoon with a sharpening frontal boundary beginning to work
through central Kansas and Nebraska. Fcst models continue to show
developing convection along this boundary during the afternoon hrs
with increasing wind fields aloft supporting possible severe wx
development to our northwest during the afternoon. Orientation of
0-6km bulk shear vectors will likely support isolated cells
initially...but as upper flow becomes more parallel to the
strengthening frontal zone by late afternoon/early evening...convection
should take on a linear morphology as it approaches our northwestern
zones Wed night. That said...fcst models continue to highlight
decreasing instability during the evening/overnight period as main
frontal boundary begins to carve its way south across the CWA.
Additionally...models continue to advertise the heaviest activity
occurring behind the front with main inflow remaining parallel to the
frontal boundary. This should limit the overall severe threat across
our zones as boundary layer stabilization occurs immediately behind
the front. The exception will be across the far northwest where any
pre-frontal activity may be surface based prior to being undercut by
the approaching boundary. Also of concern will be the potential for
highly efficient rainfall production as slow frontal movement
combines with PWAT values of 3 to 4 standard deviations above normal.
As stated above...low-level inflow parallel to the front combined
with the release of elevated instability could lead to periods of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Would not be surprised if
rainfall totals exceed 1-2" in some locations.

Front to slowly move through the area Thursday morning with precip
gradually coming to an end from north to south through the day.
Another weak shortwave to approach from the west Thursday night which
may result in some additional light shwrs however limited moisture
may keep any shwr activity at bay. Rain chances look to increase on
Friday as another disturbance tracks east along the stalled front to
our south. Beyond this...much of the weekend looks to remain dry and
seasonable with rain chances increasing early next week as another
front begins to work through the Plains/lwr Missouri Vly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. East
northeast winds will gradually become light and variable tonight,
then will increase out of the SSE by mid-morning Wednesday, at speeds
generally between 10 and 20 kts. A few scattered clouds will begin to
build in by the end of the forecast period, but bases should remain
above 5 kft.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KEAX 311706
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1206 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Water vapor showing well-established northwest flow across the
Nation/s Heartland this morning with several individual shortwaves
approaching from the northern High Plains. Fortunately with no
moisture to work with...these disturbances will pass with little
fanfare. Along the sfc...high pressure across western NE this
morning will continue settling to the east-southeast today which
should result in a much less windy afternoon. This will be a
welcomed relief for those with fire weather concerns as dry
conditions will prevail today as temps warm into the lower to middle
70s. Very little to speak of during the overnight period tonight as
dry conditions and limited cloud cover should allow temps to fall
back into the upper 40s to lower 50s early Wednesday morning.

Wx to become more interesting on Wednesday as high pressure exits to
the east and return flow is reestablished following the passage of a
warm front during the mid-morning hrs. Meanwhile...decent pressure
falls off to our west will allow for gusty south winds during the
afternoon with a sharpening frontal boundary beginning to work
through central Kansas and Nebraska. Fcst models continue to show
developing convection along this boundary during the afternoon hrs
with increasing wind fields aloft supporting possible severe wx
development to our northwest during the afternoon. Orientation of
0-6km bulk shear vectors will likely support isolated cells
initially...but as upper flow becomes more parallel to the
strengthening frontal zone by late afternoon/early evening...convection
should take on a linear morphology as it approaches our northwestern
zones Wed night. That said...fcst models continue to highlight
decreasing instability during the evening/overnight period as main
frontal boundary begins to carve its way south across the CWA.
Additionally...models continue to advertise the heaviest activity
occurring behind the front with main inflow remaining parallel to the
frontal boundary. This should limit the overall severe threat across
our zones as boundary layer stabilization occurs immediately behind
the front. The exception will be across the far northwest where any
pre-frontal activity may be surface based prior to being undercut by
the approaching boundary. Also of concern will be the potential for
highly efficient rainfall production as slow frontal movement
combines with PWAT values of 3 to 4 standard deviations above normal.
As stated above...low-level inflow parallel to the front combined
with the release of elevated instability could lead to periods of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Would not be surprised if
rainfall totals exceed 1-2" in some locations.

Front to slowly move through the area Thursday morning with precip
gradually coming to an end from north to south through the day.
Another weak shortwave to approach from the west Thursday night which
may result in some additional light shwrs however limited moisture
may keep any shwr activity at bay. Rain chances look to increase on
Friday as another disturbance tracks east along the stalled front to
our south. Beyond this...much of the weekend looks to remain dry and
seasonable with rain chances increasing early next week as another
front begins to work through the Plains/lwr Missouri Vly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. East
northeast winds will gradually become light and variable tonight,
then will increase out of the SSE by mid-morning Wednesday, at speeds
generally between 10 and 20 kts. A few scattered clouds will begin to
build in by the end of the forecast period, but bases should remain
above 5 kft.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KSGF 311631
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1131 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

...Update for Thunderstorm Potential this Afternoon...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1110 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Low level moisture has increased quite a bit this morning across
southern Missouri ahead of a frontal boundary. Late morning
surface dew points had risen into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Low
clouds have also developed across southwest Missouri in response
to the increasing moisture. Meanwhile, a mid/upper level short
wave trough was in the process of moving southeast into
northeastern Kansas.

As we head into this afternoon, that front will slowly seep south
across southern Missouri with the approaching wave. Short range
models have been insistent on developing scattered convection
across south-central Missouri from early to mid afternoon. The big
question is how much of a capping inversion will remain in place.
Models are actually increasing the capping strength this afternoon
from west to east across southern Missouri. A look at upstream
RAOBs would support this increase in cap strength. It does appear
that there will still be a window of opportunity along and east of
U.S. 65 and south of I-44 where mid-level temperatures will remain
coolest into this afternoon.

With that being said, MLCAPE values in the 1400-1800 J/kg range
appear quite plausible. 0-6 km bulk shear will be in the 30-35
knot range which will support some updraft organization. We have
therefore included a limited large hail risk (up to the size of
quarters) in the HWO.

Any convection that develops will begin to diminish and shift
south of the area by early this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A warm day is in store across the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern
Kansas as a weak front drops southward into the area this
afternoon. Southerly winds to start the day and 850 MB
temperatures in the 10 to 13 degree Celsius range will support
highs in the lower and middle 70s.

Moisture will advect northward ahead of the slowly advancing
front. Just enough low level convergence coupled with modest
instability could trigger isolated convection across far southern
Missouri this afternoon.

This activity will diminish with sunset while the front stalls
from northern Oklahoma into northern Arkansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Another warm day can be expected Wednesday. Southerly winds will
be on the increase as a front takes shape over the plains.
Isolated convection again cannot be ruled beginning as Wednesday
morning and throughout the day as the boundary lifts north as a
warm front.

The cold front will advance southeastward Wednesday night into
Thursday as an upper level trough digs into the western U.S.
Convection will develop across the Plains into the upper Midwest
Wednesday and Wednesday night along the advancing front then
spread southeastward toward the Ozarks and Osage Plains late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. It appears that we may
first deal with decaying convection in this time frame. The
question then becomes how far south the front advances Thursday as
a shortwave trough approaches from the west.

Indications are that the front will stall somewhat across the
area with showers and thunderstorms redeveloping Thursday afternoon
into Thursday night. While the extent of surface heating is in
question for Thursday there will likely be sufficient instability given
steepening lapse rates coupled with strong deep layer shear to
support some strong to potentially severe storms Thursday
afternoon into Thursday evening ahead of the front across far
southern Missouri.

Expect post frontal showers and embedded thunder to continue into
Thursday night before ending Friday morning as the shortwave
trough tracks eastward and front sags southward. Training
convection could result in heavy rainfall totals and a risk for
localized flooding later Thursday.

Much cooler temperatures will follow the frontal passage for
Friday with a gradual warming trend over the weekend. Medium range
models suggest active weather returns early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: Low level moisture is currently
spreading north into southern Missouri early this morning. An MVFR
cloud deck is forming in this moisture and will affect the KBBG
and KSGF TAF sites early this morning and may clip the KJLN site.
This MVFR conditions should not last long as it will burn off
by the mid to late morning hours.

Some light fog will also be possible early this morning as the low
level moisture increases, the KSGF site will have the best
potential for this as its has the coolest temperatures early this
morning. This light fog will also burn off quickly this morning.

VFR conditions will then occur this afternoon into early Wednesday
morning. Winds will shift to the northwest by late this morning
and become variable late this afternoon into this evening as an
area of high pressure spreads south over the area. Winds will then
swing to the southeast overnight as the high begins to push off
to the southeast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise





000
FXUS63 KSGF 311631
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1131 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

...Update for Thunderstorm Potential this Afternoon...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1110 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Low level moisture has increased quite a bit this morning across
southern Missouri ahead of a frontal boundary. Late morning
surface dew points had risen into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Low
clouds have also developed across southwest Missouri in response
to the increasing moisture. Meanwhile, a mid/upper level short
wave trough was in the process of moving southeast into
northeastern Kansas.

As we head into this afternoon, that front will slowly seep south
across southern Missouri with the approaching wave. Short range
models have been insistent on developing scattered convection
across south-central Missouri from early to mid afternoon. The big
question is how much of a capping inversion will remain in place.
Models are actually increasing the capping strength this afternoon
from west to east across southern Missouri. A look at upstream
RAOBs would support this increase in cap strength. It does appear
that there will still be a window of opportunity along and east of
U.S. 65 and south of I-44 where mid-level temperatures will remain
coolest into this afternoon.

With that being said, MLCAPE values in the 1400-1800 J/kg range
appear quite plausible. 0-6 km bulk shear will be in the 30-35
knot range which will support some updraft organization. We have
therefore included a limited large hail risk (up to the size of
quarters) in the HWO.

Any convection that develops will begin to diminish and shift
south of the area by early this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A warm day is in store across the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern
Kansas as a weak front drops southward into the area this
afternoon. Southerly winds to start the day and 850 MB
temperatures in the 10 to 13 degree Celsius range will support
highs in the lower and middle 70s.

Moisture will advect northward ahead of the slowly advancing
front. Just enough low level convergence coupled with modest
instability could trigger isolated convection across far southern
Missouri this afternoon.

This activity will diminish with sunset while the front stalls
from northern Oklahoma into northern Arkansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Another warm day can be expected Wednesday. Southerly winds will
be on the increase as a front takes shape over the plains.
Isolated convection again cannot be ruled beginning as Wednesday
morning and throughout the day as the boundary lifts north as a
warm front.

The cold front will advance southeastward Wednesday night into
Thursday as an upper level trough digs into the western U.S.
Convection will develop across the Plains into the upper Midwest
Wednesday and Wednesday night along the advancing front then
spread southeastward toward the Ozarks and Osage Plains late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. It appears that we may
first deal with decaying convection in this time frame. The
question then becomes how far south the front advances Thursday as
a shortwave trough approaches from the west.

Indications are that the front will stall somewhat across the
area with showers and thunderstorms redeveloping Thursday afternoon
into Thursday night. While the extent of surface heating is in
question for Thursday there will likely be sufficient instability given
steepening lapse rates coupled with strong deep layer shear to
support some strong to potentially severe storms Thursday
afternoon into Thursday evening ahead of the front across far
southern Missouri.

Expect post frontal showers and embedded thunder to continue into
Thursday night before ending Friday morning as the shortwave
trough tracks eastward and front sags southward. Training
convection could result in heavy rainfall totals and a risk for
localized flooding later Thursday.

Much cooler temperatures will follow the frontal passage for
Friday with a gradual warming trend over the weekend. Medium range
models suggest active weather returns early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: Low level moisture is currently
spreading north into southern Missouri early this morning. An MVFR
cloud deck is forming in this moisture and will affect the KBBG
and KSGF TAF sites early this morning and may clip the KJLN site.
This MVFR conditions should not last long as it will burn off
by the mid to late morning hours.

Some light fog will also be possible early this morning as the low
level moisture increases, the KSGF site will have the best
potential for this as its has the coolest temperatures early this
morning. This light fog will also burn off quickly this morning.

VFR conditions will then occur this afternoon into early Wednesday
morning. Winds will shift to the northwest by late this morning
and become variable late this afternoon into this evening as an
area of high pressure spreads south over the area. Winds will then
swing to the southeast overnight as the high begins to push off
to the southeast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise






000
FXUS63 KEAX 311127
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
627 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Water vapor showing well-established northwest flow across the
Nation/s Heartland this morning with several individual shortwaves
approaching from the northern High Plains. Fortunately with no
moisture to work with...these disturbances will pass with little
fanfare. Along the sfc...high pressure across western NE this
morning will continue settling to the east-southeast today which
should result in a much less windy afternoon. This will be a
welcomed relief for those with fire weather concerns as dry
conditions will prevail today as temps warm into the lower to middle
70s. Very little to speak of during the overnight period tonight as
dry conditions and limited cloud cover should allow temps to fall
back into the upper 40s to lower 50s early Wednesday morning.

Wx to become more interesting on Wednesday as high pressure exits to
the east and return flow is reestablished following the passage of a
warm front during the mid-morning hrs. Meanwhile...decent pressure
falls off to our west will allow for gusty south winds during the
afternoon with a sharpening frontal boundary beginning to work
through central Kansas and Nebraska. Fcst models continue to show
developing convection along this boundary during the afternoon hrs
with increasing wind fields aloft supporting possible severe wx
development to our northwest during the afternoon. Orientation of
0-6km bulk shear vectors will likely support isolated cells
initially...but as upper flow becomes more parallel to the
strengthening frontal zone by late afternoon/early evening...convection
should take on a linear morphology as it approaches our northwestern
zones Wed night. That said...fcst models continue to highlight
decreasing instability during the evening/overnight period as main
frontal boundary begins to carve its way south across the CWA.
Additionally...models continue to advertise the heaviest activity
occurring behind the front with main inflow remaining parallel to the
frontal boundary. This should limit the overall severe threat across
our zones as boundary layer stabilization occurs immediately behind
the front. The exception will be across the far northwest where any
pre-frontal activity may be surface based prior to being undercut by
the approaching boundary. Also of concern will be the potential for
highly efficient rainfall production as slow frontal movement
combines with PWAT values of 3 to 4 standard deviations above normal.
As stated above...low-level inflow parallel to the front combined
with the release of elevated instability could lead to periods of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Would not be surprised if
rainfall totals exceed 1-2" in some locations.

Front to slowly move through the area Thursday morning with precip
gradually coming to an end from north to south through the day.
Another weak shortwave to approach from the west Thursday night which
may result in some additional light shwrs however limited moisture
may keep any shwr activity at bay. Rain chances look to increase on
Friday as another disturbance tracks east along the stalled front to
our south. Beyond this...much of the weekend looks to remain dry and
seasonable with rain chances increasing early next week as another
front begins to work through the Plains/lwr Missouri Vly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR conditions expected through the forecast cycle. Northeast winds
of 4-8 kts will gradually shift to the southeast overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KEAX 311127
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
627 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Water vapor showing well-established northwest flow across the
Nation/s Heartland this morning with several individual shortwaves
approaching from the northern High Plains. Fortunately with no
moisture to work with...these disturbances will pass with little
fanfare. Along the sfc...high pressure across western NE this
morning will continue settling to the east-southeast today which
should result in a much less windy afternoon. This will be a
welcomed relief for those with fire weather concerns as dry
conditions will prevail today as temps warm into the lower to middle
70s. Very little to speak of during the overnight period tonight as
dry conditions and limited cloud cover should allow temps to fall
back into the upper 40s to lower 50s early Wednesday morning.

Wx to become more interesting on Wednesday as high pressure exits to
the east and return flow is reestablished following the passage of a
warm front during the mid-morning hrs. Meanwhile...decent pressure
falls off to our west will allow for gusty south winds during the
afternoon with a sharpening frontal boundary beginning to work
through central Kansas and Nebraska. Fcst models continue to show
developing convection along this boundary during the afternoon hrs
with increasing wind fields aloft supporting possible severe wx
development to our northwest during the afternoon. Orientation of
0-6km bulk shear vectors will likely support isolated cells
initially...but as upper flow becomes more parallel to the
strengthening frontal zone by late afternoon/early evening...convection
should take on a linear morphology as it approaches our northwestern
zones Wed night. That said...fcst models continue to highlight
decreasing instability during the evening/overnight period as main
frontal boundary begins to carve its way south across the CWA.
Additionally...models continue to advertise the heaviest activity
occurring behind the front with main inflow remaining parallel to the
frontal boundary. This should limit the overall severe threat across
our zones as boundary layer stabilization occurs immediately behind
the front. The exception will be across the far northwest where any
pre-frontal activity may be surface based prior to being undercut by
the approaching boundary. Also of concern will be the potential for
highly efficient rainfall production as slow frontal movement
combines with PWAT values of 3 to 4 standard deviations above normal.
As stated above...low-level inflow parallel to the front combined
with the release of elevated instability could lead to periods of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Would not be surprised if
rainfall totals exceed 1-2" in some locations.

Front to slowly move through the area Thursday morning with precip
gradually coming to an end from north to south through the day.
Another weak shortwave to approach from the west Thursday night which
may result in some additional light shwrs however limited moisture
may keep any shwr activity at bay. Rain chances look to increase on
Friday as another disturbance tracks east along the stalled front to
our south. Beyond this...much of the weekend looks to remain dry and
seasonable with rain chances increasing early next week as another
front begins to work through the Plains/lwr Missouri Vly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR conditions expected through the forecast cycle. Northeast winds
of 4-8 kts will gradually shift to the southeast overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KEAX 311127
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
627 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Water vapor showing well-established northwest flow across the
Nation/s Heartland this morning with several individual shortwaves
approaching from the northern High Plains. Fortunately with no
moisture to work with...these disturbances will pass with little
fanfare. Along the sfc...high pressure across western NE this
morning will continue settling to the east-southeast today which
should result in a much less windy afternoon. This will be a
welcomed relief for those with fire weather concerns as dry
conditions will prevail today as temps warm into the lower to middle
70s. Very little to speak of during the overnight period tonight as
dry conditions and limited cloud cover should allow temps to fall
back into the upper 40s to lower 50s early Wednesday morning.

Wx to become more interesting on Wednesday as high pressure exits to
the east and return flow is reestablished following the passage of a
warm front during the mid-morning hrs. Meanwhile...decent pressure
falls off to our west will allow for gusty south winds during the
afternoon with a sharpening frontal boundary beginning to work
through central Kansas and Nebraska. Fcst models continue to show
developing convection along this boundary during the afternoon hrs
with increasing wind fields aloft supporting possible severe wx
development to our northwest during the afternoon. Orientation of
0-6km bulk shear vectors will likely support isolated cells
initially...but as upper flow becomes more parallel to the
strengthening frontal zone by late afternoon/early evening...convection
should take on a linear morphology as it approaches our northwestern
zones Wed night. That said...fcst models continue to highlight
decreasing instability during the evening/overnight period as main
frontal boundary begins to carve its way south across the CWA.
Additionally...models continue to advertise the heaviest activity
occurring behind the front with main inflow remaining parallel to the
frontal boundary. This should limit the overall severe threat across
our zones as boundary layer stabilization occurs immediately behind
the front. The exception will be across the far northwest where any
pre-frontal activity may be surface based prior to being undercut by
the approaching boundary. Also of concern will be the potential for
highly efficient rainfall production as slow frontal movement
combines with PWAT values of 3 to 4 standard deviations above normal.
As stated above...low-level inflow parallel to the front combined
with the release of elevated instability could lead to periods of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Would not be surprised if
rainfall totals exceed 1-2" in some locations.

Front to slowly move through the area Thursday morning with precip
gradually coming to an end from north to south through the day.
Another weak shortwave to approach from the west Thursday night which
may result in some additional light shwrs however limited moisture
may keep any shwr activity at bay. Rain chances look to increase on
Friday as another disturbance tracks east along the stalled front to
our south. Beyond this...much of the weekend looks to remain dry and
seasonable with rain chances increasing early next week as another
front begins to work through the Plains/lwr Missouri Vly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR conditions expected through the forecast cycle. Northeast winds
of 4-8 kts will gradually shift to the southeast overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KEAX 311127
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
627 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Water vapor showing well-established northwest flow across the
Nation/s Heartland this morning with several individual shortwaves
approaching from the northern High Plains. Fortunately with no
moisture to work with...these disturbances will pass with little
fanfare. Along the sfc...high pressure across western NE this
morning will continue settling to the east-southeast today which
should result in a much less windy afternoon. This will be a
welcomed relief for those with fire weather concerns as dry
conditions will prevail today as temps warm into the lower to middle
70s. Very little to speak of during the overnight period tonight as
dry conditions and limited cloud cover should allow temps to fall
back into the upper 40s to lower 50s early Wednesday morning.

Wx to become more interesting on Wednesday as high pressure exits to
the east and return flow is reestablished following the passage of a
warm front during the mid-morning hrs. Meanwhile...decent pressure
falls off to our west will allow for gusty south winds during the
afternoon with a sharpening frontal boundary beginning to work
through central Kansas and Nebraska. Fcst models continue to show
developing convection along this boundary during the afternoon hrs
with increasing wind fields aloft supporting possible severe wx
development to our northwest during the afternoon. Orientation of
0-6km bulk shear vectors will likely support isolated cells
initially...but as upper flow becomes more parallel to the
strengthening frontal zone by late afternoon/early evening...convection
should take on a linear morphology as it approaches our northwestern
zones Wed night. That said...fcst models continue to highlight
decreasing instability during the evening/overnight period as main
frontal boundary begins to carve its way south across the CWA.
Additionally...models continue to advertise the heaviest activity
occurring behind the front with main inflow remaining parallel to the
frontal boundary. This should limit the overall severe threat across
our zones as boundary layer stabilization occurs immediately behind
the front. The exception will be across the far northwest where any
pre-frontal activity may be surface based prior to being undercut by
the approaching boundary. Also of concern will be the potential for
highly efficient rainfall production as slow frontal movement
combines with PWAT values of 3 to 4 standard deviations above normal.
As stated above...low-level inflow parallel to the front combined
with the release of elevated instability could lead to periods of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Would not be surprised if
rainfall totals exceed 1-2" in some locations.

Front to slowly move through the area Thursday morning with precip
gradually coming to an end from north to south through the day.
Another weak shortwave to approach from the west Thursday night which
may result in some additional light shwrs however limited moisture
may keep any shwr activity at bay. Rain chances look to increase on
Friday as another disturbance tracks east along the stalled front to
our south. Beyond this...much of the weekend looks to remain dry and
seasonable with rain chances increasing early next week as another
front begins to work through the Plains/lwr Missouri Vly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR conditions expected through the forecast cycle. Northeast winds
of 4-8 kts will gradually shift to the southeast overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KLSX 311121
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
621 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

NW flow and dry conditions in place today and tonight. An impulse
embedded in the NW flow will drag a weak cold front thru the FA
today but with limited moisture to work with...should be a dry
FROPA. The front settles well south of the area by Wed mrng. There
is an outside chance that this feature may spark off some very isld
convection across sthrn IL/MO late this aftn/evng. Chances look
minimal with slightly better chances just south of the CWA.

2%

.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

Upper lvl ridge slides across the region on Wed with a significant
short wave following closely behind along the US/Canadian border
with a weakness in the heights extending SW to a short wave coming
on shore along the west coast Wed night. The lead short wave will
induce a low to dvlp across the nthrn high plains and move east
along the international border Tue night lifting into sthrn Canada
Wed. This feature will drive a cold front into the cntrl CONUS for
the end of the work week. Weak sfc ridge slides east of the CWA by
Wed putting the region in sthrly flow between the retreating high and
the approaching bndry. Winds are expected to become rather gusty by
Wed aftn. Strong WWA and decent bndry layer moisture may be
sufficient to produce a few isld SHRA/TSMs Wed aftn...primarily
across MO where the better moisture and instability should reside.
The better chances of precip on Wed appear to be across SW MO where
the tail end of the weak cold front from Tue attempts to lift back
north. Wed should be the warmest day of the week with the strong
sthrly flow.

The cold front approaches the area Wed night with most guidance in
agreement...timing wise...bringing the bndry into the NE CWA around
12Z Thu. The front makes steady progress south thru the day and
should exit the sthrn FA around 00Z Fri. The bndry slows Thu night
due to an area of low pressure that is fcst to form along the tail
end of the bndry across the sthrn high plains in response to the
trailing short wave. The low is fcst to track from AR to the OH
vly on Fri ending the precip threat by aftn. It still appears that
the nthrn CWA`s best chance for precip will be with FROPA Thu mrng
with the remainder of the precip Thu night and Fri being along and
south of I70. Thunder is expected to accompany the front on Thu but
should be confined closer to the front across the sthrn FA Thu
night and Fri.

Temps on Thu will depend on frontal timing/position and assoc
precip. The slower either are then the warmer temps will be. Fri
will be a cool day with plenty of clouds and precip. Friday will
be a cloudy cool damp day with highs mainly in the 50s.

A low amplitude upper lvl ridge will attempt to build into the
region over the wknd with a sfc ridge moves from the cntrl plains to
the TN vly. It should be a decent wknd with mostly clear skies and
seasonal temps. Upper flow is fcst to transition to a broad SW
flow...so chance PoPs have been introduced for the beginning of
the week.

2%

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

VFR flight conditions expected through the forecast period with few
if any clouds. Cold front currently passing through the St. Louis
area will settle southward with high pressure building in and
light winds tonight. The only issue is some marginal and brief
low-level wind shear conditions in the St. Louis area through 14z
due to a west-northwest wind max of 35-40 kts from 1500-2000 ft
AGL.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions expected through the forecast period with
few if any clouds. Cold front currently passing through the St.
Louis area will settle southward with high pressure building in
and light winds tonight. The only issue is some marginal and brief
low-level wind shear conditions in the St. Louis area through 14z
due to a west-northwest wind max of 35-40 kts from 1500-2000 ft
AGL.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 311109
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
609 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

...Update to the Aviation Discussion for the 12Z TAFS...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A warm day is in store across the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern
Kansas as a weak front drops southward into the area this
afternoon. Southerly winds to start the day and 850 MB
temperatures in the 10 to 13 degree Celsius range will support
highs in the lower and middle 70s.

Moisture will advect northward ahead of the slowly advancing
front. Just enough low level convergence coupled with modest
instability could trigger isolated convection across far southern
Missouri this afternoon.

This activity will diminish with sunset while the front stalls
from northern Oklahoma into northern Arkansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Another warm day can be expected Wednesday. Southerly winds will
be on the increase as a front takes shape over the plains.
Isolated convection again cannot be ruled beginning as Wednesday
morning and throughout the day as the boundary lifts north as a
warm front.

The cold front will advance southeastward Wednesday night into
Thursday as an upper level trough digs into the western U.S.
Convection will develop across the Plains into the upper Midwest
Wednesday and Wednesday night along the advancing front then
spread southeastward toward the Ozarks and Osage Plains late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. It appears that we may
first deal with decaying convection in this time frame. The
question then becomes how far south the front advances Thursday as
a shortwave trough approaches from the west.

Indications are that the front will stall somewhat across the
area with showers and thunderstorms redeveloping Thursday afternoon
into Thursday night. While the extent of surface heating is in
question for Thursday there will likely be sufficient instability given
steepening lapse rates coupled with strong deep layer shear to
support some strong to potentially severe storms Thursday
afternoon into Thursday evening ahead of the front across far
southern Missouri.

Expect post frontal showers and embedded thunder to continue into
Thursday night before ending Friday morning as the shortwave
trough tracks eastward and front sags southward. Training
convection could result in heavy rainfall totals and a risk for
localized flooding later Thursday.

Much cooler temperatures will follow the frontal passage for
Friday with a gradual warming trend over the weekend. Medium range
models suggest active weather returns early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: Low level moisture is currently
spreading north into southern Missouri early this morning. An MVFR
cloud deck is forming in this moisture and will affect the KBBG
and KSGF TAF sites early this morning and may clip the KJLN site.
This MVFR conditions should not last long as it will burn off
by the mid to late morning hours.

Some light fog will also be possible early this morning as the low
level moisture increases, the KSGF site will have the best
potential for this as its has the coolest temperatures early this
morning. This light fog will also burn off quickly this morning.

VFR conditions will then occur this afternoon into early Wednesday
morning. Winds will shift to the northwest by late this morning
and become variable late this afternoon into this evening as an
area of high pressure spreads south over the area. Winds will then
swing to the southeast overnight as the high begins to push off
to the southeast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 311109
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
609 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

...Update to the Aviation Discussion for the 12Z TAFS...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A warm day is in store across the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern
Kansas as a weak front drops southward into the area this
afternoon. Southerly winds to start the day and 850 MB
temperatures in the 10 to 13 degree Celsius range will support
highs in the lower and middle 70s.

Moisture will advect northward ahead of the slowly advancing
front. Just enough low level convergence coupled with modest
instability could trigger isolated convection across far southern
Missouri this afternoon.

This activity will diminish with sunset while the front stalls
from northern Oklahoma into northern Arkansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Another warm day can be expected Wednesday. Southerly winds will
be on the increase as a front takes shape over the plains.
Isolated convection again cannot be ruled beginning as Wednesday
morning and throughout the day as the boundary lifts north as a
warm front.

The cold front will advance southeastward Wednesday night into
Thursday as an upper level trough digs into the western U.S.
Convection will develop across the Plains into the upper Midwest
Wednesday and Wednesday night along the advancing front then
spread southeastward toward the Ozarks and Osage Plains late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. It appears that we may
first deal with decaying convection in this time frame. The
question then becomes how far south the front advances Thursday as
a shortwave trough approaches from the west.

Indications are that the front will stall somewhat across the
area with showers and thunderstorms redeveloping Thursday afternoon
into Thursday night. While the extent of surface heating is in
question for Thursday there will likely be sufficient instability given
steepening lapse rates coupled with strong deep layer shear to
support some strong to potentially severe storms Thursday
afternoon into Thursday evening ahead of the front across far
southern Missouri.

Expect post frontal showers and embedded thunder to continue into
Thursday night before ending Friday morning as the shortwave
trough tracks eastward and front sags southward. Training
convection could result in heavy rainfall totals and a risk for
localized flooding later Thursday.

Much cooler temperatures will follow the frontal passage for
Friday with a gradual warming trend over the weekend. Medium range
models suggest active weather returns early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: Low level moisture is currently
spreading north into southern Missouri early this morning. An MVFR
cloud deck is forming in this moisture and will affect the KBBG
and KSGF TAF sites early this morning and may clip the KJLN site.
This MVFR conditions should not last long as it will burn off
by the mid to late morning hours.

Some light fog will also be possible early this morning as the low
level moisture increases, the KSGF site will have the best
potential for this as its has the coolest temperatures early this
morning. This light fog will also burn off quickly this morning.

VFR conditions will then occur this afternoon into early Wednesday
morning. Winds will shift to the northwest by late this morning
and become variable late this afternoon into this evening as an
area of high pressure spreads south over the area. Winds will then
swing to the southeast overnight as the high begins to push off
to the southeast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise






000
FXUS63 KSGF 311109
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
609 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

...Update to the Aviation Discussion for the 12Z TAFS...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A warm day is in store across the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern
Kansas as a weak front drops southward into the area this
afternoon. Southerly winds to start the day and 850 MB
temperatures in the 10 to 13 degree Celsius range will support
highs in the lower and middle 70s.

Moisture will advect northward ahead of the slowly advancing
front. Just enough low level convergence coupled with modest
instability could trigger isolated convection across far southern
Missouri this afternoon.

This activity will diminish with sunset while the front stalls
from northern Oklahoma into northern Arkansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Another warm day can be expected Wednesday. Southerly winds will
be on the increase as a front takes shape over the plains.
Isolated convection again cannot be ruled beginning as Wednesday
morning and throughout the day as the boundary lifts north as a
warm front.

The cold front will advance southeastward Wednesday night into
Thursday as an upper level trough digs into the western U.S.
Convection will develop across the Plains into the upper Midwest
Wednesday and Wednesday night along the advancing front then
spread southeastward toward the Ozarks and Osage Plains late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. It appears that we may
first deal with decaying convection in this time frame. The
question then becomes how far south the front advances Thursday as
a shortwave trough approaches from the west.

Indications are that the front will stall somewhat across the
area with showers and thunderstorms redeveloping Thursday afternoon
into Thursday night. While the extent of surface heating is in
question for Thursday there will likely be sufficient instability given
steepening lapse rates coupled with strong deep layer shear to
support some strong to potentially severe storms Thursday
afternoon into Thursday evening ahead of the front across far
southern Missouri.

Expect post frontal showers and embedded thunder to continue into
Thursday night before ending Friday morning as the shortwave
trough tracks eastward and front sags southward. Training
convection could result in heavy rainfall totals and a risk for
localized flooding later Thursday.

Much cooler temperatures will follow the frontal passage for
Friday with a gradual warming trend over the weekend. Medium range
models suggest active weather returns early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: Low level moisture is currently
spreading north into southern Missouri early this morning. An MVFR
cloud deck is forming in this moisture and will affect the KBBG
and KSGF TAF sites early this morning and may clip the KJLN site.
This MVFR conditions should not last long as it will burn off
by the mid to late morning hours.

Some light fog will also be possible early this morning as the low
level moisture increases, the KSGF site will have the best
potential for this as its has the coolest temperatures early this
morning. This light fog will also burn off quickly this morning.

VFR conditions will then occur this afternoon into early Wednesday
morning. Winds will shift to the northwest by late this morning
and become variable late this afternoon into this evening as an
area of high pressure spreads south over the area. Winds will then
swing to the southeast overnight as the high begins to push off
to the southeast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise






000
FXUS63 KSGF 311109
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
609 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

...Update to the Aviation Discussion for the 12Z TAFS...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A warm day is in store across the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern
Kansas as a weak front drops southward into the area this
afternoon. Southerly winds to start the day and 850 MB
temperatures in the 10 to 13 degree Celsius range will support
highs in the lower and middle 70s.

Moisture will advect northward ahead of the slowly advancing
front. Just enough low level convergence coupled with modest
instability could trigger isolated convection across far southern
Missouri this afternoon.

This activity will diminish with sunset while the front stalls
from northern Oklahoma into northern Arkansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Another warm day can be expected Wednesday. Southerly winds will
be on the increase as a front takes shape over the plains.
Isolated convection again cannot be ruled beginning as Wednesday
morning and throughout the day as the boundary lifts north as a
warm front.

The cold front will advance southeastward Wednesday night into
Thursday as an upper level trough digs into the western U.S.
Convection will develop across the Plains into the upper Midwest
Wednesday and Wednesday night along the advancing front then
spread southeastward toward the Ozarks and Osage Plains late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. It appears that we may
first deal with decaying convection in this time frame. The
question then becomes how far south the front advances Thursday as
a shortwave trough approaches from the west.

Indications are that the front will stall somewhat across the
area with showers and thunderstorms redeveloping Thursday afternoon
into Thursday night. While the extent of surface heating is in
question for Thursday there will likely be sufficient instability given
steepening lapse rates coupled with strong deep layer shear to
support some strong to potentially severe storms Thursday
afternoon into Thursday evening ahead of the front across far
southern Missouri.

Expect post frontal showers and embedded thunder to continue into
Thursday night before ending Friday morning as the shortwave
trough tracks eastward and front sags southward. Training
convection could result in heavy rainfall totals and a risk for
localized flooding later Thursday.

Much cooler temperatures will follow the frontal passage for
Friday with a gradual warming trend over the weekend. Medium range
models suggest active weather returns early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: Low level moisture is currently
spreading north into southern Missouri early this morning. An MVFR
cloud deck is forming in this moisture and will affect the KBBG
and KSGF TAF sites early this morning and may clip the KJLN site.
This MVFR conditions should not last long as it will burn off
by the mid to late morning hours.

Some light fog will also be possible early this morning as the low
level moisture increases, the KSGF site will have the best
potential for this as its has the coolest temperatures early this
morning. This light fog will also burn off quickly this morning.

VFR conditions will then occur this afternoon into early Wednesday
morning. Winds will shift to the northwest by late this morning
and become variable late this afternoon into this evening as an
area of high pressure spreads south over the area. Winds will then
swing to the southeast overnight as the high begins to push off
to the southeast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KLSX 310835
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
335 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

NW flow and dry conditions in place today and tonight. An impulse
embedded in the NW flow will drag a weak cold front thru the FA
today but with limited moisture to work with...should be a dry
FROPA. The front settles well south of the area by Wed mrng. There
is an outside chance that this feature may spark off some very isld
convection across sthrn IL/MO late this aftn/evng. Chances look
minimal with slightly better chances just south of the CWA.

2%

.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

Upper lvl ridge slides across the region on Wed with a significant
short wave following closely behind along the US/Canadian border
with a weakness in the heights extending SW to a short wave coming
on shore along the west coast Wed night. The lead short wave will
induce a low to dvlp across the nthrn high plains and move east
along the international border Tue night lifting into sthrn Canada
Wed. This feature will drive a cold front into the cntrl CONUS for
the end of the work week. Weak sfc ridge slides east of the CWA by
Wed putting the region in sthrly flow between the retreating high and
the approaching bndry. Winds are expected to become rather gusty by
Wed aftn. Strong WWA and decent bndry layer moisture may be
sufficient to produce a few isld SHRA/TSMs Wed aftn...primarily
across MO where the better moisture and instability should reside.
The better chances of precip on Wed appear to be across SW MO where
the tail end of the weak cold front from Tue attempts to lift back
north. Wed should be the warmest day of the week with the strong
sthrly flow.

The cold front approaches the area Wed night with most guidance in
agreement...timing wise...bringing the bndry into the NE CWA around
12Z Thu. The front makes steady progress south thru the day and
should exit the sthrn FA around 00Z Fri. The bndry slows Thu night
due to an area of low pressure that is fcst to form along the tail
end of the bndry across the sthrn high plains in response to the
trailing short wave. The low is fcst to track from AR to the OH
vly on Fri ending the precip threat by aftn. It still appears that
the nthrn CWA`s best chance for precip will be with FROPA Thu mrng
with the remainder of the precip Thu night and Fri being along and
south of I70. Thunder is expected to accompany the front on Thu but
should be confined closer to the front across the sthrn FA Thu
night and Fri.

Temps on Thu will depend on frontal timing/position and assoc
precip. The slower either are then the warmer temps will be. Fri
will be a cool day with plenty of clouds and precip. Friday will
be a cloudy cool damp day with highs mainly in the 50s.

A low amplitude upper lvl ridge will attempt to build into the
region over the wknd with a sfc ridge moves from the cntrl plains to
the TN vly. It should be a decent wknd with mostly clear skies and
seasonal temps. Upper flow is fcst to transition to a broad SW
flow...so chance PoPs have been introduced for the beginning of
the week.

2%

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1007 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

VFR conditions expected through this TAF period. Weak surface
front will approach KUIN around 10Z and the KSTL metro TAF sites
by around 14Z. LLWS will exist at all sites through the night
until frontal passage. A wind shift to light northerly surface winds
will accompany the front but little else in sensible weather.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions other than LLWS until around
14Z when a weak cold front will pass through. Surface winds will
become light northerly behind the front.

Browning

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 310835
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
335 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

NW flow and dry conditions in place today and tonight. An impulse
embedded in the NW flow will drag a weak cold front thru the FA
today but with limited moisture to work with...should be a dry
FROPA. The front settles well south of the area by Wed mrng. There
is an outside chance that this feature may spark off some very isld
convection across sthrn IL/MO late this aftn/evng. Chances look
minimal with slightly better chances just south of the CWA.

2%

.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

Upper lvl ridge slides across the region on Wed with a significant
short wave following closely behind along the US/Canadian border
with a weakness in the heights extending SW to a short wave coming
on shore along the west coast Wed night. The lead short wave will
induce a low to dvlp across the nthrn high plains and move east
along the international border Tue night lifting into sthrn Canada
Wed. This feature will drive a cold front into the cntrl CONUS for
the end of the work week. Weak sfc ridge slides east of the CWA by
Wed putting the region in sthrly flow between the retreating high and
the approaching bndry. Winds are expected to become rather gusty by
Wed aftn. Strong WWA and decent bndry layer moisture may be
sufficient to produce a few isld SHRA/TSMs Wed aftn...primarily
across MO where the better moisture and instability should reside.
The better chances of precip on Wed appear to be across SW MO where
the tail end of the weak cold front from Tue attempts to lift back
north. Wed should be the warmest day of the week with the strong
sthrly flow.

The cold front approaches the area Wed night with most guidance in
agreement...timing wise...bringing the bndry into the NE CWA around
12Z Thu. The front makes steady progress south thru the day and
should exit the sthrn FA around 00Z Fri. The bndry slows Thu night
due to an area of low pressure that is fcst to form along the tail
end of the bndry across the sthrn high plains in response to the
trailing short wave. The low is fcst to track from AR to the OH
vly on Fri ending the precip threat by aftn. It still appears that
the nthrn CWA`s best chance for precip will be with FROPA Thu mrng
with the remainder of the precip Thu night and Fri being along and
south of I70. Thunder is expected to accompany the front on Thu but
should be confined closer to the front across the sthrn FA Thu
night and Fri.

Temps on Thu will depend on frontal timing/position and assoc
precip. The slower either are then the warmer temps will be. Fri
will be a cool day with plenty of clouds and precip. Friday will
be a cloudy cool damp day with highs mainly in the 50s.

A low amplitude upper lvl ridge will attempt to build into the
region over the wknd with a sfc ridge moves from the cntrl plains to
the TN vly. It should be a decent wknd with mostly clear skies and
seasonal temps. Upper flow is fcst to transition to a broad SW
flow...so chance PoPs have been introduced for the beginning of
the week.

2%

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1007 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

VFR conditions expected through this TAF period. Weak surface
front will approach KUIN around 10Z and the KSTL metro TAF sites
by around 14Z. LLWS will exist at all sites through the night
until frontal passage. A wind shift to light northerly surface winds
will accompany the front but little else in sensible weather.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions other than LLWS until around
14Z when a weak cold front will pass through. Surface winds will
become light northerly behind the front.

Browning

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 310835
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
335 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

NW flow and dry conditions in place today and tonight. An impulse
embedded in the NW flow will drag a weak cold front thru the FA
today but with limited moisture to work with...should be a dry
FROPA. The front settles well south of the area by Wed mrng. There
is an outside chance that this feature may spark off some very isld
convection across sthrn IL/MO late this aftn/evng. Chances look
minimal with slightly better chances just south of the CWA.

2%

.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

Upper lvl ridge slides across the region on Wed with a significant
short wave following closely behind along the US/Canadian border
with a weakness in the heights extending SW to a short wave coming
on shore along the west coast Wed night. The lead short wave will
induce a low to dvlp across the nthrn high plains and move east
along the international border Tue night lifting into sthrn Canada
Wed. This feature will drive a cold front into the cntrl CONUS for
the end of the work week. Weak sfc ridge slides east of the CWA by
Wed putting the region in sthrly flow between the retreating high and
the approaching bndry. Winds are expected to become rather gusty by
Wed aftn. Strong WWA and decent bndry layer moisture may be
sufficient to produce a few isld SHRA/TSMs Wed aftn...primarily
across MO where the better moisture and instability should reside.
The better chances of precip on Wed appear to be across SW MO where
the tail end of the weak cold front from Tue attempts to lift back
north. Wed should be the warmest day of the week with the strong
sthrly flow.

The cold front approaches the area Wed night with most guidance in
agreement...timing wise...bringing the bndry into the NE CWA around
12Z Thu. The front makes steady progress south thru the day and
should exit the sthrn FA around 00Z Fri. The bndry slows Thu night
due to an area of low pressure that is fcst to form along the tail
end of the bndry across the sthrn high plains in response to the
trailing short wave. The low is fcst to track from AR to the OH
vly on Fri ending the precip threat by aftn. It still appears that
the nthrn CWA`s best chance for precip will be with FROPA Thu mrng
with the remainder of the precip Thu night and Fri being along and
south of I70. Thunder is expected to accompany the front on Thu but
should be confined closer to the front across the sthrn FA Thu
night and Fri.

Temps on Thu will depend on frontal timing/position and assoc
precip. The slower either are then the warmer temps will be. Fri
will be a cool day with plenty of clouds and precip. Friday will
be a cloudy cool damp day with highs mainly in the 50s.

A low amplitude upper lvl ridge will attempt to build into the
region over the wknd with a sfc ridge moves from the cntrl plains to
the TN vly. It should be a decent wknd with mostly clear skies and
seasonal temps. Upper flow is fcst to transition to a broad SW
flow...so chance PoPs have been introduced for the beginning of
the week.

2%

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1007 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

VFR conditions expected through this TAF period. Weak surface
front will approach KUIN around 10Z and the KSTL metro TAF sites
by around 14Z. LLWS will exist at all sites through the night
until frontal passage. A wind shift to light northerly surface winds
will accompany the front but little else in sensible weather.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions other than LLWS until around
14Z when a weak cold front will pass through. Surface winds will
become light northerly behind the front.

Browning

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 310835
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
335 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

NW flow and dry conditions in place today and tonight. An impulse
embedded in the NW flow will drag a weak cold front thru the FA
today but with limited moisture to work with...should be a dry
FROPA. The front settles well south of the area by Wed mrng. There
is an outside chance that this feature may spark off some very isld
convection across sthrn IL/MO late this aftn/evng. Chances look
minimal with slightly better chances just south of the CWA.

2%

.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

Upper lvl ridge slides across the region on Wed with a significant
short wave following closely behind along the US/Canadian border
with a weakness in the heights extending SW to a short wave coming
on shore along the west coast Wed night. The lead short wave will
induce a low to dvlp across the nthrn high plains and move east
along the international border Tue night lifting into sthrn Canada
Wed. This feature will drive a cold front into the cntrl CONUS for
the end of the work week. Weak sfc ridge slides east of the CWA by
Wed putting the region in sthrly flow between the retreating high and
the approaching bndry. Winds are expected to become rather gusty by
Wed aftn. Strong WWA and decent bndry layer moisture may be
sufficient to produce a few isld SHRA/TSMs Wed aftn...primarily
across MO where the better moisture and instability should reside.
The better chances of precip on Wed appear to be across SW MO where
the tail end of the weak cold front from Tue attempts to lift back
north. Wed should be the warmest day of the week with the strong
sthrly flow.

The cold front approaches the area Wed night with most guidance in
agreement...timing wise...bringing the bndry into the NE CWA around
12Z Thu. The front makes steady progress south thru the day and
should exit the sthrn FA around 00Z Fri. The bndry slows Thu night
due to an area of low pressure that is fcst to form along the tail
end of the bndry across the sthrn high plains in response to the
trailing short wave. The low is fcst to track from AR to the OH
vly on Fri ending the precip threat by aftn. It still appears that
the nthrn CWA`s best chance for precip will be with FROPA Thu mrng
with the remainder of the precip Thu night and Fri being along and
south of I70. Thunder is expected to accompany the front on Thu but
should be confined closer to the front across the sthrn FA Thu
night and Fri.

Temps on Thu will depend on frontal timing/position and assoc
precip. The slower either are then the warmer temps will be. Fri
will be a cool day with plenty of clouds and precip. Friday will
be a cloudy cool damp day with highs mainly in the 50s.

A low amplitude upper lvl ridge will attempt to build into the
region over the wknd with a sfc ridge moves from the cntrl plains to
the TN vly. It should be a decent wknd with mostly clear skies and
seasonal temps. Upper flow is fcst to transition to a broad SW
flow...so chance PoPs have been introduced for the beginning of
the week.

2%

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1007 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

VFR conditions expected through this TAF period. Weak surface
front will approach KUIN around 10Z and the KSTL metro TAF sites
by around 14Z. LLWS will exist at all sites through the night
until frontal passage. A wind shift to light northerly surface winds
will accompany the front but little else in sensible weather.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions other than LLWS until around
14Z when a weak cold front will pass through. Surface winds will
become light northerly behind the front.

Browning

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 310835
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
335 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

NW flow and dry conditions in place today and tonight. An impulse
embedded in the NW flow will drag a weak cold front thru the FA
today but with limited moisture to work with...should be a dry
FROPA. The front settles well south of the area by Wed mrng. There
is an outside chance that this feature may spark off some very isld
convection across sthrn IL/MO late this aftn/evng. Chances look
minimal with slightly better chances just south of the CWA.

2%

.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

Upper lvl ridge slides across the region on Wed with a significant
short wave following closely behind along the US/Canadian border
with a weakness in the heights extending SW to a short wave coming
on shore along the west coast Wed night. The lead short wave will
induce a low to dvlp across the nthrn high plains and move east
along the international border Tue night lifting into sthrn Canada
Wed. This feature will drive a cold front into the cntrl CONUS for
the end of the work week. Weak sfc ridge slides east of the CWA by
Wed putting the region in sthrly flow between the retreating high and
the approaching bndry. Winds are expected to become rather gusty by
Wed aftn. Strong WWA and decent bndry layer moisture may be
sufficient to produce a few isld SHRA/TSMs Wed aftn...primarily
across MO where the better moisture and instability should reside.
The better chances of precip on Wed appear to be across SW MO where
the tail end of the weak cold front from Tue attempts to lift back
north. Wed should be the warmest day of the week with the strong
sthrly flow.

The cold front approaches the area Wed night with most guidance in
agreement...timing wise...bringing the bndry into the NE CWA around
12Z Thu. The front makes steady progress south thru the day and
should exit the sthrn FA around 00Z Fri. The bndry slows Thu night
due to an area of low pressure that is fcst to form along the tail
end of the bndry across the sthrn high plains in response to the
trailing short wave. The low is fcst to track from AR to the OH
vly on Fri ending the precip threat by aftn. It still appears that
the nthrn CWA`s best chance for precip will be with FROPA Thu mrng
with the remainder of the precip Thu night and Fri being along and
south of I70. Thunder is expected to accompany the front on Thu but
should be confined closer to the front across the sthrn FA Thu
night and Fri.

Temps on Thu will depend on frontal timing/position and assoc
precip. The slower either are then the warmer temps will be. Fri
will be a cool day with plenty of clouds and precip. Friday will
be a cloudy cool damp day with highs mainly in the 50s.

A low amplitude upper lvl ridge will attempt to build into the
region over the wknd with a sfc ridge moves from the cntrl plains to
the TN vly. It should be a decent wknd with mostly clear skies and
seasonal temps. Upper flow is fcst to transition to a broad SW
flow...so chance PoPs have been introduced for the beginning of
the week.

2%

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1007 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

VFR conditions expected through this TAF period. Weak surface
front will approach KUIN around 10Z and the KSTL metro TAF sites
by around 14Z. LLWS will exist at all sites through the night
until frontal passage. A wind shift to light northerly surface winds
will accompany the front but little else in sensible weather.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions other than LLWS until around
14Z when a weak cold front will pass through. Surface winds will
become light northerly behind the front.

Browning

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 310835
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
335 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

NW flow and dry conditions in place today and tonight. An impulse
embedded in the NW flow will drag a weak cold front thru the FA
today but with limited moisture to work with...should be a dry
FROPA. The front settles well south of the area by Wed mrng. There
is an outside chance that this feature may spark off some very isld
convection across sthrn IL/MO late this aftn/evng. Chances look
minimal with slightly better chances just south of the CWA.

2%

.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

Upper lvl ridge slides across the region on Wed with a significant
short wave following closely behind along the US/Canadian border
with a weakness in the heights extending SW to a short wave coming
on shore along the west coast Wed night. The lead short wave will
induce a low to dvlp across the nthrn high plains and move east
along the international border Tue night lifting into sthrn Canada
Wed. This feature will drive a cold front into the cntrl CONUS for
the end of the work week. Weak sfc ridge slides east of the CWA by
Wed putting the region in sthrly flow between the retreating high and
the approaching bndry. Winds are expected to become rather gusty by
Wed aftn. Strong WWA and decent bndry layer moisture may be
sufficient to produce a few isld SHRA/TSMs Wed aftn...primarily
across MO where the better moisture and instability should reside.
The better chances of precip on Wed appear to be across SW MO where
the tail end of the weak cold front from Tue attempts to lift back
north. Wed should be the warmest day of the week with the strong
sthrly flow.

The cold front approaches the area Wed night with most guidance in
agreement...timing wise...bringing the bndry into the NE CWA around
12Z Thu. The front makes steady progress south thru the day and
should exit the sthrn FA around 00Z Fri. The bndry slows Thu night
due to an area of low pressure that is fcst to form along the tail
end of the bndry across the sthrn high plains in response to the
trailing short wave. The low is fcst to track from AR to the OH
vly on Fri ending the precip threat by aftn. It still appears that
the nthrn CWA`s best chance for precip will be with FROPA Thu mrng
with the remainder of the precip Thu night and Fri being along and
south of I70. Thunder is expected to accompany the front on Thu but
should be confined closer to the front across the sthrn FA Thu
night and Fri.

Temps on Thu will depend on frontal timing/position and assoc
precip. The slower either are then the warmer temps will be. Fri
will be a cool day with plenty of clouds and precip. Friday will
be a cloudy cool damp day with highs mainly in the 50s.

A low amplitude upper lvl ridge will attempt to build into the
region over the wknd with a sfc ridge moves from the cntrl plains to
the TN vly. It should be a decent wknd with mostly clear skies and
seasonal temps. Upper flow is fcst to transition to a broad SW
flow...so chance PoPs have been introduced for the beginning of
the week.

2%

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1007 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

VFR conditions expected through this TAF period. Weak surface
front will approach KUIN around 10Z and the KSTL metro TAF sites
by around 14Z. LLWS will exist at all sites through the night
until frontal passage. A wind shift to light northerly surface winds
will accompany the front but little else in sensible weather.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions other than LLWS until around
14Z when a weak cold front will pass through. Surface winds will
become light northerly behind the front.

Browning

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 310834
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
334 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Water vapor showing well-established northwest flow across the
Nation/s Heartland this morning with several individual shortwaves
approaching from the northern High Plains. Fortunately with no
moisture to work with...these disturbances will pass with little
fanfare. Along the sfc...high pressure across western NE this
morning will continue settling to the east-southeast today which
should result in a much less windy afternoon. This will be a
welcomed relief for those with fire weather concerns as dry
conditions will prevail today as temps warm into the lower to middle
70s. Very little to speak of during the overnight period tonight as
dry conditions and limited cloud cover should allow temps to fall
back into the upper 40s to lower 50s early Wednesday morning.

Wx to become more interesting on Wednesday as high pressure exits to
the east and return flow is reestablished following the passage of a
warm front during the mid-morning hrs. Meanwhile...decent pressure
falls off to our west will allow for gusty south winds during the
afternoon with a sharpening frontal boundary beginning to work
through central Kansas and Nebraska. Fcst models continue to show
developing convection along this boundary during the afternoon hrs
with increasing wind fields aloft supporting possible severe wx
development to our northwest during the afternoon. Orientation of
0-6km bulk shear vectors will likely support isolated cells
initially...but as upper flow becomes more parallel to the
strengthening frontal zone by late afternoon/early evening...convection
should take on a linear morphology as it approaches our northwestern
zones Wed night. That said...fcst models continue to highlight
decreasing instability during the evening/overnight period as main
frontal boundary begins to carve its way south across the CWA.
Additionally...models continue to advertise the heaviest activity
occurring behind the front with main inflow remaining parallel to the
frontal boundary. This should limit the overall severe threat across
our zones as boundary layer stabilization occurs immediately behind
the front. The exception will be across the far northwest where any
pre-frontal activity may be surface based prior to being undercut by
the approaching boundary. Also of concern will be the potential for
highly efficient rainfall production as slow frontal movement
combines with PWAT values of 3 to 4 standard deviations above normal.
As stated above...low-level inflow parallel to the front combined
with the release of elevated instability could lead to periods of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Would not be surprised if
rainfall totals exceed 1-2" in some locations.

Front to slowly move through the area Thursday morning with precip
gradually coming to an end from north to south through the day.
Another weak shortwave to approach from the west Thursday night which
may result in some additional light shwrs however limited moisture
may keep any shwr activity at bay. Rain chances look to increase on
Friday as another disturbance tracks east along the stalled front to
our south. Beyond this...much of the weekend looks to remain dry and
seasonable with rain chances increasing early next week as another
front begins to work through the Plains/lwr Missouri Vly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR conditions will dominate the terminals over the next 24 hours.
Only issue to watch will be the wind as a modest surface high slides
across region. This will make winds rather light and variable for much
of the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 310834
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
334 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Water vapor showing well-established northwest flow across the
Nation/s Heartland this morning with several individual shortwaves
approaching from the northern High Plains. Fortunately with no
moisture to work with...these disturbances will pass with little
fanfare. Along the sfc...high pressure across western NE this
morning will continue settling to the east-southeast today which
should result in a much less windy afternoon. This will be a
welcomed relief for those with fire weather concerns as dry
conditions will prevail today as temps warm into the lower to middle
70s. Very little to speak of during the overnight period tonight as
dry conditions and limited cloud cover should allow temps to fall
back into the upper 40s to lower 50s early Wednesday morning.

Wx to become more interesting on Wednesday as high pressure exits to
the east and return flow is reestablished following the passage of a
warm front during the mid-morning hrs. Meanwhile...decent pressure
falls off to our west will allow for gusty south winds during the
afternoon with a sharpening frontal boundary beginning to work
through central Kansas and Nebraska. Fcst models continue to show
developing convection along this boundary during the afternoon hrs
with increasing wind fields aloft supporting possible severe wx
development to our northwest during the afternoon. Orientation of
0-6km bulk shear vectors will likely support isolated cells
initially...but as upper flow becomes more parallel to the
strengthening frontal zone by late afternoon/early evening...convection
should take on a linear morphology as it approaches our northwestern
zones Wed night. That said...fcst models continue to highlight
decreasing instability during the evening/overnight period as main
frontal boundary begins to carve its way south across the CWA.
Additionally...models continue to advertise the heaviest activity
occurring behind the front with main inflow remaining parallel to the
frontal boundary. This should limit the overall severe threat across
our zones as boundary layer stabilization occurs immediately behind
the front. The exception will be across the far northwest where any
pre-frontal activity may be surface based prior to being undercut by
the approaching boundary. Also of concern will be the potential for
highly efficient rainfall production as slow frontal movement
combines with PWAT values of 3 to 4 standard deviations above normal.
As stated above...low-level inflow parallel to the front combined
with the release of elevated instability could lead to periods of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Would not be surprised if
rainfall totals exceed 1-2" in some locations.

Front to slowly move through the area Thursday morning with precip
gradually coming to an end from north to south through the day.
Another weak shortwave to approach from the west Thursday night which
may result in some additional light shwrs however limited moisture
may keep any shwr activity at bay. Rain chances look to increase on
Friday as another disturbance tracks east along the stalled front to
our south. Beyond this...much of the weekend looks to remain dry and
seasonable with rain chances increasing early next week as another
front begins to work through the Plains/lwr Missouri Vly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR conditions will dominate the terminals over the next 24 hours.
Only issue to watch will be the wind as a modest surface high slides
across region. This will make winds rather light and variable for much
of the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KEAX 310834
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
334 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Water vapor showing well-established northwest flow across the
Nation/s Heartland this morning with several individual shortwaves
approaching from the northern High Plains. Fortunately with no
moisture to work with...these disturbances will pass with little
fanfare. Along the sfc...high pressure across western NE this
morning will continue settling to the east-southeast today which
should result in a much less windy afternoon. This will be a
welcomed relief for those with fire weather concerns as dry
conditions will prevail today as temps warm into the lower to middle
70s. Very little to speak of during the overnight period tonight as
dry conditions and limited cloud cover should allow temps to fall
back into the upper 40s to lower 50s early Wednesday morning.

Wx to become more interesting on Wednesday as high pressure exits to
the east and return flow is reestablished following the passage of a
warm front during the mid-morning hrs. Meanwhile...decent pressure
falls off to our west will allow for gusty south winds during the
afternoon with a sharpening frontal boundary beginning to work
through central Kansas and Nebraska. Fcst models continue to show
developing convection along this boundary during the afternoon hrs
with increasing wind fields aloft supporting possible severe wx
development to our northwest during the afternoon. Orientation of
0-6km bulk shear vectors will likely support isolated cells
initially...but as upper flow becomes more parallel to the
strengthening frontal zone by late afternoon/early evening...convection
should take on a linear morphology as it approaches our northwestern
zones Wed night. That said...fcst models continue to highlight
decreasing instability during the evening/overnight period as main
frontal boundary begins to carve its way south across the CWA.
Additionally...models continue to advertise the heaviest activity
occurring behind the front with main inflow remaining parallel to the
frontal boundary. This should limit the overall severe threat across
our zones as boundary layer stabilization occurs immediately behind
the front. The exception will be across the far northwest where any
pre-frontal activity may be surface based prior to being undercut by
the approaching boundary. Also of concern will be the potential for
highly efficient rainfall production as slow frontal movement
combines with PWAT values of 3 to 4 standard deviations above normal.
As stated above...low-level inflow parallel to the front combined
with the release of elevated instability could lead to periods of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Would not be surprised if
rainfall totals exceed 1-2" in some locations.

Front to slowly move through the area Thursday morning with precip
gradually coming to an end from north to south through the day.
Another weak shortwave to approach from the west Thursday night which
may result in some additional light shwrs however limited moisture
may keep any shwr activity at bay. Rain chances look to increase on
Friday as another disturbance tracks east along the stalled front to
our south. Beyond this...much of the weekend looks to remain dry and
seasonable with rain chances increasing early next week as another
front begins to work through the Plains/lwr Missouri Vly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR conditions will dominate the terminals over the next 24 hours.
Only issue to watch will be the wind as a modest surface high slides
across region. This will make winds rather light and variable for much
of the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KSGF 310823
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
323 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

...Warm Today and Wednesday then Storms on Thursday...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A warm day is in store across the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern
Kansas as a weak front drops southward into the area this
afternoon. Southerly winds to start the day and 850 MB
temperatures in the 10 to 13 degree Celsius range will support
highs in the lower and middle 70s.

Moisture will advect northward ahead of the slowly advancing
front. Just enough low level convergence coupled with modest
instability could trigger isolated convection across far southern
Missouri this afternoon.

This activity will diminish with sunset while the front stalls
from northern Oklahoma into northern Arkansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Another warm day can be expected Wednesday. Southerly winds will
be on the increase as a front takes shape over the plains.
Isolated convection again cannot be ruled beginning as Wednesday
morning and throughout the day as the boundary lifts north as a
warm front.

The cold front will advance southeastward Wednesday night into
Thursday as an upper level trough digs into the western U.S.
Convection will develop across the Plains into the upper Midwest
Wednesday and Wednesday night along the advancing front then
spread southeastward toward the Ozarks and Osage Plains late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. It appears that we may
first deal with decaying convection in this time frame. The
question then becomes how far south the front advances Thursday as
a shortwave trough approaches from the west.

Indications are that the front will stall somewhat across the
area with showers and thunderstorms redeveloping Thursday afternoon
into Thursday night. While the extent of surface heating is in
question for Thursday there will likely be sufficient instability given
steepening lapse rates coupled with strong deep layer shear to
support some strong to potentially severe storms Thursday
afternoon into Thursday evening ahead of the front across far
southern Missouri.

Expect post frontal showers and embedded thunder to continue into
Thursday night before ending Friday morning as the shortwave
trough tracks eastward and front sags southward. Training
convection could result in heavy rainfall totals and a risk for
localized flooding later Thursday.

Much cooler temperatures will follow the frontal passage for
Friday with a gradual warming trend over the weekend. Medium range
models suggest active weather returns early next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1121 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A weak front will push through the area during the morning hours
on Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected for most of the time
period, but may see some MVFR visibilities at BBG during the early morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 310823
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
323 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

...Warm Today and Wednesday then Storms on Thursday...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A warm day is in store across the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern
Kansas as a weak front drops southward into the area this
afternoon. Southerly winds to start the day and 850 MB
temperatures in the 10 to 13 degree Celsius range will support
highs in the lower and middle 70s.

Moisture will advect northward ahead of the slowly advancing
front. Just enough low level convergence coupled with modest
instability could trigger isolated convection across far southern
Missouri this afternoon.

This activity will diminish with sunset while the front stalls
from northern Oklahoma into northern Arkansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

Another warm day can be expected Wednesday. Southerly winds will
be on the increase as a front takes shape over the plains.
Isolated convection again cannot be ruled beginning as Wednesday
morning and throughout the day as the boundary lifts north as a
warm front.

The cold front will advance southeastward Wednesday night into
Thursday as an upper level trough digs into the western U.S.
Convection will develop across the Plains into the upper Midwest
Wednesday and Wednesday night along the advancing front then
spread southeastward toward the Ozarks and Osage Plains late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. It appears that we may
first deal with decaying convection in this time frame. The
question then becomes how far south the front advances Thursday as
a shortwave trough approaches from the west.

Indications are that the front will stall somewhat across the
area with showers and thunderstorms redeveloping Thursday afternoon
into Thursday night. While the extent of surface heating is in
question for Thursday there will likely be sufficient instability given
steepening lapse rates coupled with strong deep layer shear to
support some strong to potentially severe storms Thursday
afternoon into Thursday evening ahead of the front across far
southern Missouri.

Expect post frontal showers and embedded thunder to continue into
Thursday night before ending Friday morning as the shortwave
trough tracks eastward and front sags southward. Training
convection could result in heavy rainfall totals and a risk for
localized flooding later Thursday.

Much cooler temperatures will follow the frontal passage for
Friday with a gradual warming trend over the weekend. Medium range
models suggest active weather returns early next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1121 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A weak front will push through the area during the morning hours
on Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected for most of the time
period, but may see some MVFR visibilities at BBG during the early morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KEAX 310450
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1150 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Tonight into Tuesday: Fire weather concerns will continue through
the remainder of the afternoon, especially over northwest Missouri
into northeast Kansas where relative humidity values have fallen to
near 20 percent and southwest winds have been breezy. Otherwise,
surface high pressure moves across the area tonight into Tuesday.
Dry weather will continue through Tuesday night. As for
temperatures, warmer overnight lows are expected tonight with
readings in the 40s. Highs on Tuesday afternoon will be slightly
warmer in some areas, with all locations in the 70s.

Wednesday/Thursday: Much of Wednesday looks dry as the overall
system has slightly slowed. The main exception may be a few
scattered showers or thunderstorms during the day as a warm front
lifts north through the forecast area. The best chance for this
isolated activity will be over central Missouri. Otherwise, expect a
warm day with highs in the middle to upper 70s, with perhaps a few
80-degree locations. Moisture will also steadily increase with the
warm sector returning, with dewpoints well into the 50s.
Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the afternoon
hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This convection will
develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually reaching the
northwest portions of the forecast area after sunset Wednesday. The
overall severe weather threat appears marginal, with the highest
probability of strong to isolated severe storms over far northwest
Missouri. The primary limiting factor will be the timing of
convection reaching the CWA, where the loss of stronger diurnal
instability will be lost, as well as the anticipated linear
evolution of the convection and gradual undercut from the
thunderstorm cold pools. While storms may undergo a weakening trend,
there remains the potential for a few severe wind gusts in the most
robust activity. The best chance for precipitation will occur
Wednesday night through Thursday morning with the passage of the
front. Total precipitation amounts with this first round of
thunderstorms will average one-half inch, with higher amounts in the
more robust thunderstorm activity.

Rain will eventually push south of much of the forecast area during
the day Thursday as the surface front stalls just south of the CWA,
which is further north than previous thinking. Of course, the
frontal position will also likely be dependent on Wed night
convection. If in fact the front remains south of the CWA on
Thursday during peak heating, the primary severe weather threat on
Thursday will remain south of the forecast area. Slightly cooler air
will filter into the area during the day Thursday, with highs in the
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A few lingering showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will
continue to be possible Thursday night into early Friday morning as
the slow-moving frontal boundary pushes southward, then rainfall
should begin clearing out of the area during the daytime hours
Friday. Cooler temperatures are expected Friday and especially
Friday night as the front clears out of the region, and there`s a
potential for patchy frost throughout the forecast area Saturday
morning as a surface high builds into the region and cooler air
sinks into the eastern Plains.

More seasonable temperatures will return for Saturday and Sunday as
southerly flow returns on the back side of the surface high and
ridging builds across the High Plains, allowing highs to return into
the 60s to lower 70s by early next week. Another round of showers
and storms is possible by the end of the forecast period Monday
afternoon and evening, but have kept PoPs fairly low to account for
uncertainty in the setup.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR conditions will dominate the terminals over the next 24 hours.
Only issue to watch will be the wind as a modest surface high slides
across region. This will make winds rather light and variable for much
of the day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 721 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Have allowed the Red Flag warning, in effect for Monday, to expire as
evening conditions are starting to calm winds and allow humidity
values to begin rebounding. Overnight a surface high will slide
across the region, with the combination of nocturnal boundary layer
decoupling and a relaxing pressure gradient allowing winds to become
light and variable. Expect surface winds to generally prevail from
the north and/or east after sunrise Tuesday with speeds less than 10
MPH. However, still expect another day of low humidity values in the
afternoon as Gulf moisture wont arrive in the region till Wednesday
along with a strong southerly wind across Kansas and Missouri. As a
result, while conditions exceeding critical fire weather criteria are
not currently expected, thoughts are that both Tuesday and Wednesday
could experience heightened fire danger. Tuesday due to low humidity
and a light and variable wind; Wednesday due to strong and gusty
winds with our fine fuels still well cured. Wednesday night into
Thursday widespread rain and a return of cooler temperatures will
mitigate any fire concerns over the later periods of the work week
into the weekend.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter
FIRE WEATHER...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 310450
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1150 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Tonight into Tuesday: Fire weather concerns will continue through
the remainder of the afternoon, especially over northwest Missouri
into northeast Kansas where relative humidity values have fallen to
near 20 percent and southwest winds have been breezy. Otherwise,
surface high pressure moves across the area tonight into Tuesday.
Dry weather will continue through Tuesday night. As for
temperatures, warmer overnight lows are expected tonight with
readings in the 40s. Highs on Tuesday afternoon will be slightly
warmer in some areas, with all locations in the 70s.

Wednesday/Thursday: Much of Wednesday looks dry as the overall
system has slightly slowed. The main exception may be a few
scattered showers or thunderstorms during the day as a warm front
lifts north through the forecast area. The best chance for this
isolated activity will be over central Missouri. Otherwise, expect a
warm day with highs in the middle to upper 70s, with perhaps a few
80-degree locations. Moisture will also steadily increase with the
warm sector returning, with dewpoints well into the 50s.
Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the afternoon
hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This convection will
develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually reaching the
northwest portions of the forecast area after sunset Wednesday. The
overall severe weather threat appears marginal, with the highest
probability of strong to isolated severe storms over far northwest
Missouri. The primary limiting factor will be the timing of
convection reaching the CWA, where the loss of stronger diurnal
instability will be lost, as well as the anticipated linear
evolution of the convection and gradual undercut from the
thunderstorm cold pools. While storms may undergo a weakening trend,
there remains the potential for a few severe wind gusts in the most
robust activity. The best chance for precipitation will occur
Wednesday night through Thursday morning with the passage of the
front. Total precipitation amounts with this first round of
thunderstorms will average one-half inch, with higher amounts in the
more robust thunderstorm activity.

Rain will eventually push south of much of the forecast area during
the day Thursday as the surface front stalls just south of the CWA,
which is further north than previous thinking. Of course, the
frontal position will also likely be dependent on Wed night
convection. If in fact the front remains south of the CWA on
Thursday during peak heating, the primary severe weather threat on
Thursday will remain south of the forecast area. Slightly cooler air
will filter into the area during the day Thursday, with highs in the
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A few lingering showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will
continue to be possible Thursday night into early Friday morning as
the slow-moving frontal boundary pushes southward, then rainfall
should begin clearing out of the area during the daytime hours
Friday. Cooler temperatures are expected Friday and especially
Friday night as the front clears out of the region, and there`s a
potential for patchy frost throughout the forecast area Saturday
morning as a surface high builds into the region and cooler air
sinks into the eastern Plains.

More seasonable temperatures will return for Saturday and Sunday as
southerly flow returns on the back side of the surface high and
ridging builds across the High Plains, allowing highs to return into
the 60s to lower 70s by early next week. Another round of showers
and storms is possible by the end of the forecast period Monday
afternoon and evening, but have kept PoPs fairly low to account for
uncertainty in the setup.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR conditions will dominate the terminals over the next 24 hours.
Only issue to watch will be the wind as a modest surface high slides
across region. This will make winds rather light and variable for much
of the day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 721 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Have allowed the Red Flag warning, in effect for Monday, to expire as
evening conditions are starting to calm winds and allow humidity
values to begin rebounding. Overnight a surface high will slide
across the region, with the combination of nocturnal boundary layer
decoupling and a relaxing pressure gradient allowing winds to become
light and variable. Expect surface winds to generally prevail from
the north and/or east after sunrise Tuesday with speeds less than 10
MPH. However, still expect another day of low humidity values in the
afternoon as Gulf moisture wont arrive in the region till Wednesday
along with a strong southerly wind across Kansas and Missouri. As a
result, while conditions exceeding critical fire weather criteria are
not currently expected, thoughts are that both Tuesday and Wednesday
could experience heightened fire danger. Tuesday due to low humidity
and a light and variable wind; Wednesday due to strong and gusty
winds with our fine fuels still well cured. Wednesday night into
Thursday widespread rain and a return of cooler temperatures will
mitigate any fire concerns over the later periods of the work week
into the weekend.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter
FIRE WEATHER...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KSGF 310430
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1130 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will make its way
eastward during the overnight hours. This will bring the winds
back around to the south and allow Gulf moisture to begin making
its way northward. This will allow the stalled front over the
southern plains to begin advancing northeastward as a warm front.

Temperatures will make it into the 70s region wide on Tuesday with
a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms developing during the
afternoon across extreme southern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging will be underway Tuesday night as the
southerly winds continue to bring warm and moist air into the
region.

Wednesday will see temperatures climb into the middle 70s to
around 80 degrees across the Ozarks as a slow moving cold front
makes its way across the plains.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to impact the region
Wednesday afternoon as the front makes slow progress to the east.
Instability in advance of the front will be in the 800-1600 j/kg
range which will be enough to allow some strong storms to
develop.

The models all seem to hang the front up across the region from
Thursday night through Friday afternoon as a surface low moves
northeast across the southern plains and through the region. This
may bring a prolonged period of rainfall and thunderstorms. Will
need to watch the potential for some flooding with this system as
well.

High pressure will then build into the region behind the front.
The high looks as though it will move of the Pacific instead of
diving out of Canada. This should keep temperatures from being too
cool, though Saturday morning lows may fall into the middle 30s
across portions of the Ozarks.

Another storm system will move towards the region early next week
though models are handling the timing and coverage of rain
differently.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1121 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A weak front will push through the area during the morning hours
on Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected for most of the time
period, but may see some MVFR visibilities at BBG during the early morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 310430
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1130 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will make its way
eastward during the overnight hours. This will bring the winds
back around to the south and allow Gulf moisture to begin making
its way northward. This will allow the stalled front over the
southern plains to begin advancing northeastward as a warm front.

Temperatures will make it into the 70s region wide on Tuesday with
a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms developing during the
afternoon across extreme southern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging will be underway Tuesday night as the
southerly winds continue to bring warm and moist air into the
region.

Wednesday will see temperatures climb into the middle 70s to
around 80 degrees across the Ozarks as a slow moving cold front
makes its way across the plains.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to impact the region
Wednesday afternoon as the front makes slow progress to the east.
Instability in advance of the front will be in the 800-1600 j/kg
range which will be enough to allow some strong storms to
develop.

The models all seem to hang the front up across the region from
Thursday night through Friday afternoon as a surface low moves
northeast across the southern plains and through the region. This
may bring a prolonged period of rainfall and thunderstorms. Will
need to watch the potential for some flooding with this system as
well.

High pressure will then build into the region behind the front.
The high looks as though it will move of the Pacific instead of
diving out of Canada. This should keep temperatures from being too
cool, though Saturday morning lows may fall into the middle 30s
across portions of the Ozarks.

Another storm system will move towards the region early next week
though models are handling the timing and coverage of rain
differently.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1121 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A weak front will push through the area during the morning hours
on Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected for most of the time
period, but may see some MVFR visibilities at BBG during the early morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 310430
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1130 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will make its way
eastward during the overnight hours. This will bring the winds
back around to the south and allow Gulf moisture to begin making
its way northward. This will allow the stalled front over the
southern plains to begin advancing northeastward as a warm front.

Temperatures will make it into the 70s region wide on Tuesday with
a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms developing during the
afternoon across extreme southern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging will be underway Tuesday night as the
southerly winds continue to bring warm and moist air into the
region.

Wednesday will see temperatures climb into the middle 70s to
around 80 degrees across the Ozarks as a slow moving cold front
makes its way across the plains.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to impact the region
Wednesday afternoon as the front makes slow progress to the east.
Instability in advance of the front will be in the 800-1600 j/kg
range which will be enough to allow some strong storms to
develop.

The models all seem to hang the front up across the region from
Thursday night through Friday afternoon as a surface low moves
northeast across the southern plains and through the region. This
may bring a prolonged period of rainfall and thunderstorms. Will
need to watch the potential for some flooding with this system as
well.

High pressure will then build into the region behind the front.
The high looks as though it will move of the Pacific instead of
diving out of Canada. This should keep temperatures from being too
cool, though Saturday morning lows may fall into the middle 30s
across portions of the Ozarks.

Another storm system will move towards the region early next week
though models are handling the timing and coverage of rain
differently.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1121 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A weak front will push through the area during the morning hours
on Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected for most of the time
period, but may see some MVFR visibilities at BBG during the early morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 310430
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1130 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will make its way
eastward during the overnight hours. This will bring the winds
back around to the south and allow Gulf moisture to begin making
its way northward. This will allow the stalled front over the
southern plains to begin advancing northeastward as a warm front.

Temperatures will make it into the 70s region wide on Tuesday with
a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms developing during the
afternoon across extreme southern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging will be underway Tuesday night as the
southerly winds continue to bring warm and moist air into the
region.

Wednesday will see temperatures climb into the middle 70s to
around 80 degrees across the Ozarks as a slow moving cold front
makes its way across the plains.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to impact the region
Wednesday afternoon as the front makes slow progress to the east.
Instability in advance of the front will be in the 800-1600 j/kg
range which will be enough to allow some strong storms to
develop.

The models all seem to hang the front up across the region from
Thursday night through Friday afternoon as a surface low moves
northeast across the southern plains and through the region. This
may bring a prolonged period of rainfall and thunderstorms. Will
need to watch the potential for some flooding with this system as
well.

High pressure will then build into the region behind the front.
The high looks as though it will move of the Pacific instead of
diving out of Canada. This should keep temperatures from being too
cool, though Saturday morning lows may fall into the middle 30s
across portions of the Ozarks.

Another storm system will move towards the region early next week
though models are handling the timing and coverage of rain
differently.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1121 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A weak front will push through the area during the morning hours
on Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected for most of the time
period, but may see some MVFR visibilities at BBG during the early morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 310430
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1130 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will make its way
eastward during the overnight hours. This will bring the winds
back around to the south and allow Gulf moisture to begin making
its way northward. This will allow the stalled front over the
southern plains to begin advancing northeastward as a warm front.

Temperatures will make it into the 70s region wide on Tuesday with
a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms developing during the
afternoon across extreme southern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging will be underway Tuesday night as the
southerly winds continue to bring warm and moist air into the
region.

Wednesday will see temperatures climb into the middle 70s to
around 80 degrees across the Ozarks as a slow moving cold front
makes its way across the plains.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to impact the region
Wednesday afternoon as the front makes slow progress to the east.
Instability in advance of the front will be in the 800-1600 j/kg
range which will be enough to allow some strong storms to
develop.

The models all seem to hang the front up across the region from
Thursday night through Friday afternoon as a surface low moves
northeast across the southern plains and through the region. This
may bring a prolonged period of rainfall and thunderstorms. Will
need to watch the potential for some flooding with this system as
well.

High pressure will then build into the region behind the front.
The high looks as though it will move of the Pacific instead of
diving out of Canada. This should keep temperatures from being too
cool, though Saturday morning lows may fall into the middle 30s
across portions of the Ozarks.

Another storm system will move towards the region early next week
though models are handling the timing and coverage of rain
differently.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1121 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A weak front will push through the area during the morning hours
on Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected for most of the time
period, but may see some MVFR visibilities at BBG during the early morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 310430
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1130 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will make its way
eastward during the overnight hours. This will bring the winds
back around to the south and allow Gulf moisture to begin making
its way northward. This will allow the stalled front over the
southern plains to begin advancing northeastward as a warm front.

Temperatures will make it into the 70s region wide on Tuesday with
a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms developing during the
afternoon across extreme southern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging will be underway Tuesday night as the
southerly winds continue to bring warm and moist air into the
region.

Wednesday will see temperatures climb into the middle 70s to
around 80 degrees across the Ozarks as a slow moving cold front
makes its way across the plains.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to impact the region
Wednesday afternoon as the front makes slow progress to the east.
Instability in advance of the front will be in the 800-1600 j/kg
range which will be enough to allow some strong storms to
develop.

The models all seem to hang the front up across the region from
Thursday night through Friday afternoon as a surface low moves
northeast across the southern plains and through the region. This
may bring a prolonged period of rainfall and thunderstorms. Will
need to watch the potential for some flooding with this system as
well.

High pressure will then build into the region behind the front.
The high looks as though it will move of the Pacific instead of
diving out of Canada. This should keep temperatures from being too
cool, though Saturday morning lows may fall into the middle 30s
across portions of the Ozarks.

Another storm system will move towards the region early next week
though models are handling the timing and coverage of rain
differently.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1121 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A weak front will push through the area during the morning hours
on Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected for most of the time
period, but may see some MVFR visibilities at BBG during the early morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KLSX 310316
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1016 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 935 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Should be a relatively mild late March night across the region
thanks to a fairly decent pressure gradient that will maintain
southwest to west winds throughout the night.

Going forecast trends are still looking good.

Truett

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

South to southwest flow will prevail tonight ahead of a weak cold
front which will move through Tuesday.  Dry atmosphere will provide
a mostly clear sky...with perhaps a few cirrus clouds.  Temperatures
look to stay near or just above climatological normals due to the
warm southwest winds.  Used a blend of guidance for lows, but leaned
toward some of the warmer members of the ensemble.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

The forecast over this period can be broken down into three
segments, all primarily based off the upper flow pattern.

Through Tuesday night, a northwest flow will prevail over our
region, delivering quiet wx, thanks to dry air and little in the way
of any forcing mechanisms.  A weak cold front will move thru during
the day on Tuesday, but both the associated WAA ahead of it, and its
expected position when it might be able to gain some leverage from
the heating of the day for some surface based convection are not
favorable for any mention of pcpn at this time.  Have continued the
dry forecast from the previous package.

The air following the cold front will not be much different than the
one ahead of it, and so despite NW winds for much of Tuesday for
most areas, temps are expected to follow persistence or a bit above.

The upper flow will then back to the W-SW by late Wednesday and
continue into Friday night, signalling a more active wx pattern to
close the work week.  The old front from Tuesday will be buckling
northward as a warm front on Wednesday, but the timing looks to be a
bit slower than it did 24hrs ago.  Given the significant increase of
moisture thru the column that will accompany this warm front, its
delay will still mean worth a small PoP mention for the afternoon
and evening but over a more western area than 24hrs ago.

More significant forcing will move in late Wednesday night and
continue into Thursday evening as a stronger cold front than the one
on Tuesday drops down and will result in periods of showers and
thunderstorms.  Another shot of forcing, mostly frontogenetical and
post-frontal, will then move in on Friday providing mostly rain with
any thunder confined to southern MO and IL.

A warm day is expected for Wednesday, and potentially into Thursday
depending on the exact timing of the rain and front, with much
cooler temps than expected on Friday behind the front with rain.

A period of quieter wx is then expected for the weekend with NW flow
restored by Saturday morning and drier air moving in.  Temps will be
quick to rebound, after a cool Saturday, towards normal on Sunday as
surface winds turn from the south.

Southwest upper flow could occur already by Monday next week with
the normal accompanying rain chances, but some model disagreement on
timing here so went conservative with PoPs and leaned towards climo
values.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1007 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

VFR conditions expected through this TAF period. Weak surface
front will approach KUIN around 10Z and the KSTL metro TAF sites
by around 14Z. LLWS will exist at all sites through the night
until frontal passage. A wind shift to light northerly surface winds
will accompany the front but little else in sensible weather.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions other than LLWS until around
14Z when a weak cold front will pass through. Surface winds will
become light northerly behind the front.

Browning

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 310316
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1016 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 935 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Should be a relatively mild late March night across the region
thanks to a fairly decent pressure gradient that will maintain
southwest to west winds throughout the night.

Going forecast trends are still looking good.

Truett

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

South to southwest flow will prevail tonight ahead of a weak cold
front which will move through Tuesday.  Dry atmosphere will provide
a mostly clear sky...with perhaps a few cirrus clouds.  Temperatures
look to stay near or just above climatological normals due to the
warm southwest winds.  Used a blend of guidance for lows, but leaned
toward some of the warmer members of the ensemble.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

The forecast over this period can be broken down into three
segments, all primarily based off the upper flow pattern.

Through Tuesday night, a northwest flow will prevail over our
region, delivering quiet wx, thanks to dry air and little in the way
of any forcing mechanisms.  A weak cold front will move thru during
the day on Tuesday, but both the associated WAA ahead of it, and its
expected position when it might be able to gain some leverage from
the heating of the day for some surface based convection are not
favorable for any mention of pcpn at this time.  Have continued the
dry forecast from the previous package.

The air following the cold front will not be much different than the
one ahead of it, and so despite NW winds for much of Tuesday for
most areas, temps are expected to follow persistence or a bit above.

The upper flow will then back to the W-SW by late Wednesday and
continue into Friday night, signalling a more active wx pattern to
close the work week.  The old front from Tuesday will be buckling
northward as a warm front on Wednesday, but the timing looks to be a
bit slower than it did 24hrs ago.  Given the significant increase of
moisture thru the column that will accompany this warm front, its
delay will still mean worth a small PoP mention for the afternoon
and evening but over a more western area than 24hrs ago.

More significant forcing will move in late Wednesday night and
continue into Thursday evening as a stronger cold front than the one
on Tuesday drops down and will result in periods of showers and
thunderstorms.  Another shot of forcing, mostly frontogenetical and
post-frontal, will then move in on Friday providing mostly rain with
any thunder confined to southern MO and IL.

A warm day is expected for Wednesday, and potentially into Thursday
depending on the exact timing of the rain and front, with much
cooler temps than expected on Friday behind the front with rain.

A period of quieter wx is then expected for the weekend with NW flow
restored by Saturday morning and drier air moving in.  Temps will be
quick to rebound, after a cool Saturday, towards normal on Sunday as
surface winds turn from the south.

Southwest upper flow could occur already by Monday next week with
the normal accompanying rain chances, but some model disagreement on
timing here so went conservative with PoPs and leaned towards climo
values.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1007 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

VFR conditions expected through this TAF period. Weak surface
front will approach KUIN around 10Z and the KSTL metro TAF sites
by around 14Z. LLWS will exist at all sites through the night
until frontal passage. A wind shift to light northerly surface winds
will accompany the front but little else in sensible weather.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions other than LLWS until around
14Z when a weak cold front will pass through. Surface winds will
become light northerly behind the front.

Browning

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 310235
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
935 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 935 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Should be a relatively mild late March night across the region
thanks to a fairly decent pressure gradient that will maintain
southwest to west winds throughout the night.

Going forecast trends are still looking good.

Truett

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

South to southwest flow will prevail tonight ahead of a weak cold
front which will move through Tuesday.  Dry atmosphere will provide
a mostly clear sky...with perhaps a few cirrus clouds.  Temperatures
look to stay near or just above climatological normals due to the
warm southwest winds.  Used a blend of guidance for lows, but leaned
toward some of the warmer members of the ensemble.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

The forecast over this period can be broken down into three
segments, all primarily based off the upper flow pattern.

Through Tuesday night, a northwest flow will prevail over our
region, delivering quiet wx, thanks to dry air and little in the way
of any forcing mechanisms.  A weak cold front will move thru during
the day on Tuesday, but both the associated WAA ahead of it, and its
expected position when it might be able to gain some leverage from
the heating of the day for some surface based convection are not
favorable for any mention of pcpn at this time.  Have continued the
dry forecast from the previous package.

The air following the cold front will not be much different than the
one ahead of it, and so despite NW winds for much of Tuesday for
most areas, temps are expected to follow persistence or a bit above.

The upper flow will then back to the W-SW by late Wednesday and
continue into Friday night, signalling a more active wx pattern to
close the work week.  The old front from Tuesday will be buckling
northward as a warm front on Wednesday, but the timing looks to be a
bit slower than it did 24hrs ago.  Given the significant increase of
moisture thru the column that will accompany this warm front, its
delay will still mean worth a small PoP mention for the afternoon
and evening but over a more western area than 24hrs ago.

More significant forcing will move in late Wednesday night and
continue into Thursday evening as a stronger cold front than the one
on Tuesday drops down and will result in periods of showers and
thunderstorms.  Another shot of forcing, mostly frontogenetical and
post-frontal, will then move in on Friday providing mostly rain with
any thunder confined to southern MO and IL.

A warm day is expected for Wednesday, and potentially into Thursday
depending on the exact timing of the rain and front, with much
cooler temps than expected on Friday behind the front with rain.

A period of quieter wx is then expected for the weekend with NW flow
restored by Saturday morning and drier air moving in.  Temps will be
quick to rebound, after a cool Saturday, towards normal on Sunday as
surface winds turn from the south.

Southwest upper flow could occur already by Monday next week with
the normal accompanying rain chances, but some model disagreement on
timing here so went conservative with PoPs and leaned towards climo
values.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 548 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

VFR conditions expected through this TAF forecast period.
Scattered cirrus overnight into Tuesday. Southwest winds will
gradually veer overnight ahead of a weak cold front which will
move through KUIN around 10Z and into the KSTL metro TAF sites
around 14Z. Will add LLWS this evening until frontal passage as
most model output shows winds increase to near 40 knots at around
1000 feet AGL.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions expected. Surface winds will
veer slowly overnight ahead of an approaching front. Will add LLWS
this evening until frontal passage as most model output shows
winds increase to near 40 knots at around 1000 feet AGL. As the
front passes around 14Z, winds will become northwest but remain
relatively light.

Browning

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 310235
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
935 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 935 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Should be a relatively mild late March night across the region
thanks to a fairly decent pressure gradient that will maintain
southwest to west winds throughout the night.

Going forecast trends are still looking good.

Truett

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

South to southwest flow will prevail tonight ahead of a weak cold
front which will move through Tuesday.  Dry atmosphere will provide
a mostly clear sky...with perhaps a few cirrus clouds.  Temperatures
look to stay near or just above climatological normals due to the
warm southwest winds.  Used a blend of guidance for lows, but leaned
toward some of the warmer members of the ensemble.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

The forecast over this period can be broken down into three
segments, all primarily based off the upper flow pattern.

Through Tuesday night, a northwest flow will prevail over our
region, delivering quiet wx, thanks to dry air and little in the way
of any forcing mechanisms.  A weak cold front will move thru during
the day on Tuesday, but both the associated WAA ahead of it, and its
expected position when it might be able to gain some leverage from
the heating of the day for some surface based convection are not
favorable for any mention of pcpn at this time.  Have continued the
dry forecast from the previous package.

The air following the cold front will not be much different than the
one ahead of it, and so despite NW winds for much of Tuesday for
most areas, temps are expected to follow persistence or a bit above.

The upper flow will then back to the W-SW by late Wednesday and
continue into Friday night, signalling a more active wx pattern to
close the work week.  The old front from Tuesday will be buckling
northward as a warm front on Wednesday, but the timing looks to be a
bit slower than it did 24hrs ago.  Given the significant increase of
moisture thru the column that will accompany this warm front, its
delay will still mean worth a small PoP mention for the afternoon
and evening but over a more western area than 24hrs ago.

More significant forcing will move in late Wednesday night and
continue into Thursday evening as a stronger cold front than the one
on Tuesday drops down and will result in periods of showers and
thunderstorms.  Another shot of forcing, mostly frontogenetical and
post-frontal, will then move in on Friday providing mostly rain with
any thunder confined to southern MO and IL.

A warm day is expected for Wednesday, and potentially into Thursday
depending on the exact timing of the rain and front, with much
cooler temps than expected on Friday behind the front with rain.

A period of quieter wx is then expected for the weekend with NW flow
restored by Saturday morning and drier air moving in.  Temps will be
quick to rebound, after a cool Saturday, towards normal on Sunday as
surface winds turn from the south.

Southwest upper flow could occur already by Monday next week with
the normal accompanying rain chances, but some model disagreement on
timing here so went conservative with PoPs and leaned towards climo
values.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 548 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

VFR conditions expected through this TAF forecast period.
Scattered cirrus overnight into Tuesday. Southwest winds will
gradually veer overnight ahead of a weak cold front which will
move through KUIN around 10Z and into the KSTL metro TAF sites
around 14Z. Will add LLWS this evening until frontal passage as
most model output shows winds increase to near 40 knots at around
1000 feet AGL.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions expected. Surface winds will
veer slowly overnight ahead of an approaching front. Will add LLWS
this evening until frontal passage as most model output shows
winds increase to near 40 knots at around 1000 feet AGL. As the
front passes around 14Z, winds will become northwest but remain
relatively light.

Browning

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 310023
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
723 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Tonight into Tuesday: Fire weather concerns will continue through
the remainder of the afternoon, especially over northwest Missouri
into northeast Kansas where relative humidity values have fallen to
near 20 percent and southwest winds have been breezy. Otherwise,
surface high pressure moves across the area tonight into Tuesday.
Dry weather will continue through Tuesday night. As for
temperatures, warmer overnight lows are expected tonight with
readings in the 40s. Highs on Tuesday afternoon will be slightly
warmer in some areas, with all locations in the 70s.

Wednesday/Thursday: Much of Wednesday looks dry as the overall
system has slightly slowed. The main exception may be a few
scattered showers or thunderstorms during the day as a warm front
lifts north through the forecast area. The best chance for this
isolated activity will be over central Missouri. Otherwise, expect a
warm day with highs in the middle to upper 70s, with perhaps a few
80-degree locations. Moisture will also steadily increase with the
warm sector returning, with dewpoints well into the 50s.
Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the afternoon
hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This convection will
develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually reaching the
northwest portions of the forecast area after sunset Wednesday. The
overall severe weather threat appears marginal, with the highest
probability of strong to isolated severe storms over far northwest
Missouri. The primary limiting factor will be the timing of
convection reaching the CWA, where the loss of stronger diurnal
instability will be lost, as well as the anticipated linear
evolution of the convection and gradual undercut from the
thunderstorm cold pools. While storms may undergo a weakening trend,
there remains the potential for a few severe wind gusts in the most
robust activity. The best chance for precipitation will occur
Wednesday night through Thursday morning with the passage of the
front. Total precipitation amounts with this first round of
thunderstorms will average one-half inch, with higher amounts in the
more robust thunderstorm activity.

Rain will eventually push south of much of the forecast area during
the day Thursday as the surface front stalls just south of the CWA,
which is further north than previous thinking. Of course, the
frontal position will also likely be dependent on Wed night
convection. If in fact the front remains south of the CWA on
Thursday during peak heating, the primary severe weather threat on
Thursday will remain south of the forecast area. Slightly cooler air
will filter into the area during the day Thursday, with highs in the
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A few lingering showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will
continue to be possible Thursday night into early Friday morning as
the slow-moving frontal boundary pushes southward, then rainfall
should begin clearing out of the area during the daytime hours
Friday. Cooler temperatures are expected Friday and especially
Friday night as the front clears out of the region, and there`s a
potential for patchy frost throughout the forecast area Saturday
morning as a surface high builds into the region and cooler air
sinks into the eastern Plains.

More seasonable temperatures will return for Saturday and Sunday as
southerly flow returns on the back side of the surface high and
ridging builds across the High Plains, allowing highs to return into
the 60s to lower 70s by early next week. Another round of showers
and storms is possible by the end of the forecast period Monday
afternoon and evening, but have kept PoPs fairly low to account for
uncertainty in the setup.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR conditions will dominate the region over the next 24 hours. Only
issues will be the winds going form gusty today to light and variable
overnight, veering to the east in the morning.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 721 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Have allowed the Red Flag warning, in effect for Monday, to expire as
evening conditions are starting to calm winds and allow humidity
values to begin rebounding. Overnight a surface high will slide
across the region, with the combination of nocturnal boundary layer
decoupling and a relaxing pressure gradient allowing winds to become
light and variable. Expect surface winds to generally prevail from
the north and/or east after sunrise Tuesday with speeds less than 10
MPH. However, still expect another day of low humidity values in the
afternoon as Gulf moisture wont arrive in the region till Wednesday
along with a strong southerly wind across Kansas and Missouri. As a
result, while conditions exceeding critical fire weather criteria are
not currently expected, thoughts are that both Tuesday and Wednesday
could experience heightened fire danger. Tuesday due to low humidity
and a light and variable wind; Wednesday due to strong and gusty
winds with our fine fuels still well cured. Wednesday night into
Thursday widespread rain and a return of cooler temperatures will
mitigate any fire concerns over the later periods of the work week
into the weekend.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter
FIRE WEATHER...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KEAX 310023
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
723 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Tonight into Tuesday: Fire weather concerns will continue through
the remainder of the afternoon, especially over northwest Missouri
into northeast Kansas where relative humidity values have fallen to
near 20 percent and southwest winds have been breezy. Otherwise,
surface high pressure moves across the area tonight into Tuesday.
Dry weather will continue through Tuesday night. As for
temperatures, warmer overnight lows are expected tonight with
readings in the 40s. Highs on Tuesday afternoon will be slightly
warmer in some areas, with all locations in the 70s.

Wednesday/Thursday: Much of Wednesday looks dry as the overall
system has slightly slowed. The main exception may be a few
scattered showers or thunderstorms during the day as a warm front
lifts north through the forecast area. The best chance for this
isolated activity will be over central Missouri. Otherwise, expect a
warm day with highs in the middle to upper 70s, with perhaps a few
80-degree locations. Moisture will also steadily increase with the
warm sector returning, with dewpoints well into the 50s.
Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the afternoon
hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This convection will
develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually reaching the
northwest portions of the forecast area after sunset Wednesday. The
overall severe weather threat appears marginal, with the highest
probability of strong to isolated severe storms over far northwest
Missouri. The primary limiting factor will be the timing of
convection reaching the CWA, where the loss of stronger diurnal
instability will be lost, as well as the anticipated linear
evolution of the convection and gradual undercut from the
thunderstorm cold pools. While storms may undergo a weakening trend,
there remains the potential for a few severe wind gusts in the most
robust activity. The best chance for precipitation will occur
Wednesday night through Thursday morning with the passage of the
front. Total precipitation amounts with this first round of
thunderstorms will average one-half inch, with higher amounts in the
more robust thunderstorm activity.

Rain will eventually push south of much of the forecast area during
the day Thursday as the surface front stalls just south of the CWA,
which is further north than previous thinking. Of course, the
frontal position will also likely be dependent on Wed night
convection. If in fact the front remains south of the CWA on
Thursday during peak heating, the primary severe weather threat on
Thursday will remain south of the forecast area. Slightly cooler air
will filter into the area during the day Thursday, with highs in the
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A few lingering showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will
continue to be possible Thursday night into early Friday morning as
the slow-moving frontal boundary pushes southward, then rainfall
should begin clearing out of the area during the daytime hours
Friday. Cooler temperatures are expected Friday and especially
Friday night as the front clears out of the region, and there`s a
potential for patchy frost throughout the forecast area Saturday
morning as a surface high builds into the region and cooler air
sinks into the eastern Plains.

More seasonable temperatures will return for Saturday and Sunday as
southerly flow returns on the back side of the surface high and
ridging builds across the High Plains, allowing highs to return into
the 60s to lower 70s by early next week. Another round of showers
and storms is possible by the end of the forecast period Monday
afternoon and evening, but have kept PoPs fairly low to account for
uncertainty in the setup.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR conditions will dominate the region over the next 24 hours. Only
issues will be the winds going form gusty today to light and variable
overnight, veering to the east in the morning.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 721 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Have allowed the Red Flag warning, in effect for Monday, to expire as
evening conditions are starting to calm winds and allow humidity
values to begin rebounding. Overnight a surface high will slide
across the region, with the combination of nocturnal boundary layer
decoupling and a relaxing pressure gradient allowing winds to become
light and variable. Expect surface winds to generally prevail from
the north and/or east after sunrise Tuesday with speeds less than 10
MPH. However, still expect another day of low humidity values in the
afternoon as Gulf moisture wont arrive in the region till Wednesday
along with a strong southerly wind across Kansas and Missouri. As a
result, while conditions exceeding critical fire weather criteria are
not currently expected, thoughts are that both Tuesday and Wednesday
could experience heightened fire danger. Tuesday due to low humidity
and a light and variable wind; Wednesday due to strong and gusty
winds with our fine fuels still well cured. Wednesday night into
Thursday widespread rain and a return of cooler temperatures will
mitigate any fire concerns over the later periods of the work week
into the weekend.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter
FIRE WEATHER...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KEAX 310023
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
723 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Tonight into Tuesday: Fire weather concerns will continue through
the remainder of the afternoon, especially over northwest Missouri
into northeast Kansas where relative humidity values have fallen to
near 20 percent and southwest winds have been breezy. Otherwise,
surface high pressure moves across the area tonight into Tuesday.
Dry weather will continue through Tuesday night. As for
temperatures, warmer overnight lows are expected tonight with
readings in the 40s. Highs on Tuesday afternoon will be slightly
warmer in some areas, with all locations in the 70s.

Wednesday/Thursday: Much of Wednesday looks dry as the overall
system has slightly slowed. The main exception may be a few
scattered showers or thunderstorms during the day as a warm front
lifts north through the forecast area. The best chance for this
isolated activity will be over central Missouri. Otherwise, expect a
warm day with highs in the middle to upper 70s, with perhaps a few
80-degree locations. Moisture will also steadily increase with the
warm sector returning, with dewpoints well into the 50s.
Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the afternoon
hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This convection will
develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually reaching the
northwest portions of the forecast area after sunset Wednesday. The
overall severe weather threat appears marginal, with the highest
probability of strong to isolated severe storms over far northwest
Missouri. The primary limiting factor will be the timing of
convection reaching the CWA, where the loss of stronger diurnal
instability will be lost, as well as the anticipated linear
evolution of the convection and gradual undercut from the
thunderstorm cold pools. While storms may undergo a weakening trend,
there remains the potential for a few severe wind gusts in the most
robust activity. The best chance for precipitation will occur
Wednesday night through Thursday morning with the passage of the
front. Total precipitation amounts with this first round of
thunderstorms will average one-half inch, with higher amounts in the
more robust thunderstorm activity.

Rain will eventually push south of much of the forecast area during
the day Thursday as the surface front stalls just south of the CWA,
which is further north than previous thinking. Of course, the
frontal position will also likely be dependent on Wed night
convection. If in fact the front remains south of the CWA on
Thursday during peak heating, the primary severe weather threat on
Thursday will remain south of the forecast area. Slightly cooler air
will filter into the area during the day Thursday, with highs in the
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A few lingering showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will
continue to be possible Thursday night into early Friday morning as
the slow-moving frontal boundary pushes southward, then rainfall
should begin clearing out of the area during the daytime hours
Friday. Cooler temperatures are expected Friday and especially
Friday night as the front clears out of the region, and there`s a
potential for patchy frost throughout the forecast area Saturday
morning as a surface high builds into the region and cooler air
sinks into the eastern Plains.

More seasonable temperatures will return for Saturday and Sunday as
southerly flow returns on the back side of the surface high and
ridging builds across the High Plains, allowing highs to return into
the 60s to lower 70s by early next week. Another round of showers
and storms is possible by the end of the forecast period Monday
afternoon and evening, but have kept PoPs fairly low to account for
uncertainty in the setup.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR conditions will dominate the region over the next 24 hours. Only
issues will be the winds going form gusty today to light and variable
overnight, veering to the east in the morning.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 721 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Have allowed the Red Flag warning, in effect for Monday, to expire as
evening conditions are starting to calm winds and allow humidity
values to begin rebounding. Overnight a surface high will slide
across the region, with the combination of nocturnal boundary layer
decoupling and a relaxing pressure gradient allowing winds to become
light and variable. Expect surface winds to generally prevail from
the north and/or east after sunrise Tuesday with speeds less than 10
MPH. However, still expect another day of low humidity values in the
afternoon as Gulf moisture wont arrive in the region till Wednesday
along with a strong southerly wind across Kansas and Missouri. As a
result, while conditions exceeding critical fire weather criteria are
not currently expected, thoughts are that both Tuesday and Wednesday
could experience heightened fire danger. Tuesday due to low humidity
and a light and variable wind; Wednesday due to strong and gusty
winds with our fine fuels still well cured. Wednesday night into
Thursday widespread rain and a return of cooler temperatures will
mitigate any fire concerns over the later periods of the work week
into the weekend.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter
FIRE WEATHER...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KEAX 310023
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
723 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Tonight into Tuesday: Fire weather concerns will continue through
the remainder of the afternoon, especially over northwest Missouri
into northeast Kansas where relative humidity values have fallen to
near 20 percent and southwest winds have been breezy. Otherwise,
surface high pressure moves across the area tonight into Tuesday.
Dry weather will continue through Tuesday night. As for
temperatures, warmer overnight lows are expected tonight with
readings in the 40s. Highs on Tuesday afternoon will be slightly
warmer in some areas, with all locations in the 70s.

Wednesday/Thursday: Much of Wednesday looks dry as the overall
system has slightly slowed. The main exception may be a few
scattered showers or thunderstorms during the day as a warm front
lifts north through the forecast area. The best chance for this
isolated activity will be over central Missouri. Otherwise, expect a
warm day with highs in the middle to upper 70s, with perhaps a few
80-degree locations. Moisture will also steadily increase with the
warm sector returning, with dewpoints well into the 50s.
Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the afternoon
hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This convection will
develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually reaching the
northwest portions of the forecast area after sunset Wednesday. The
overall severe weather threat appears marginal, with the highest
probability of strong to isolated severe storms over far northwest
Missouri. The primary limiting factor will be the timing of
convection reaching the CWA, where the loss of stronger diurnal
instability will be lost, as well as the anticipated linear
evolution of the convection and gradual undercut from the
thunderstorm cold pools. While storms may undergo a weakening trend,
there remains the potential for a few severe wind gusts in the most
robust activity. The best chance for precipitation will occur
Wednesday night through Thursday morning with the passage of the
front. Total precipitation amounts with this first round of
thunderstorms will average one-half inch, with higher amounts in the
more robust thunderstorm activity.

Rain will eventually push south of much of the forecast area during
the day Thursday as the surface front stalls just south of the CWA,
which is further north than previous thinking. Of course, the
frontal position will also likely be dependent on Wed night
convection. If in fact the front remains south of the CWA on
Thursday during peak heating, the primary severe weather threat on
Thursday will remain south of the forecast area. Slightly cooler air
will filter into the area during the day Thursday, with highs in the
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A few lingering showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will
continue to be possible Thursday night into early Friday morning as
the slow-moving frontal boundary pushes southward, then rainfall
should begin clearing out of the area during the daytime hours
Friday. Cooler temperatures are expected Friday and especially
Friday night as the front clears out of the region, and there`s a
potential for patchy frost throughout the forecast area Saturday
morning as a surface high builds into the region and cooler air
sinks into the eastern Plains.

More seasonable temperatures will return for Saturday and Sunday as
southerly flow returns on the back side of the surface high and
ridging builds across the High Plains, allowing highs to return into
the 60s to lower 70s by early next week. Another round of showers
and storms is possible by the end of the forecast period Monday
afternoon and evening, but have kept PoPs fairly low to account for
uncertainty in the setup.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR conditions will dominate the region over the next 24 hours. Only
issues will be the winds going form gusty today to light and variable
overnight, veering to the east in the morning.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 721 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Have allowed the Red Flag warning, in effect for Monday, to expire as
evening conditions are starting to calm winds and allow humidity
values to begin rebounding. Overnight a surface high will slide
across the region, with the combination of nocturnal boundary layer
decoupling and a relaxing pressure gradient allowing winds to become
light and variable. Expect surface winds to generally prevail from
the north and/or east after sunrise Tuesday with speeds less than 10
MPH. However, still expect another day of low humidity values in the
afternoon as Gulf moisture wont arrive in the region till Wednesday
along with a strong southerly wind across Kansas and Missouri. As a
result, while conditions exceeding critical fire weather criteria are
not currently expected, thoughts are that both Tuesday and Wednesday
could experience heightened fire danger. Tuesday due to low humidity
and a light and variable wind; Wednesday due to strong and gusty
winds with our fine fuels still well cured. Wednesday night into
Thursday widespread rain and a return of cooler temperatures will
mitigate any fire concerns over the later periods of the work week
into the weekend.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter
FIRE WEATHER...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KEAX 310023
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
723 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Tonight into Tuesday: Fire weather concerns will continue through
the remainder of the afternoon, especially over northwest Missouri
into northeast Kansas where relative humidity values have fallen to
near 20 percent and southwest winds have been breezy. Otherwise,
surface high pressure moves across the area tonight into Tuesday.
Dry weather will continue through Tuesday night. As for
temperatures, warmer overnight lows are expected tonight with
readings in the 40s. Highs on Tuesday afternoon will be slightly
warmer in some areas, with all locations in the 70s.

Wednesday/Thursday: Much of Wednesday looks dry as the overall
system has slightly slowed. The main exception may be a few
scattered showers or thunderstorms during the day as a warm front
lifts north through the forecast area. The best chance for this
isolated activity will be over central Missouri. Otherwise, expect a
warm day with highs in the middle to upper 70s, with perhaps a few
80-degree locations. Moisture will also steadily increase with the
warm sector returning, with dewpoints well into the 50s.
Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the afternoon
hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This convection will
develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually reaching the
northwest portions of the forecast area after sunset Wednesday. The
overall severe weather threat appears marginal, with the highest
probability of strong to isolated severe storms over far northwest
Missouri. The primary limiting factor will be the timing of
convection reaching the CWA, where the loss of stronger diurnal
instability will be lost, as well as the anticipated linear
evolution of the convection and gradual undercut from the
thunderstorm cold pools. While storms may undergo a weakening trend,
there remains the potential for a few severe wind gusts in the most
robust activity. The best chance for precipitation will occur
Wednesday night through Thursday morning with the passage of the
front. Total precipitation amounts with this first round of
thunderstorms will average one-half inch, with higher amounts in the
more robust thunderstorm activity.

Rain will eventually push south of much of the forecast area during
the day Thursday as the surface front stalls just south of the CWA,
which is further north than previous thinking. Of course, the
frontal position will also likely be dependent on Wed night
convection. If in fact the front remains south of the CWA on
Thursday during peak heating, the primary severe weather threat on
Thursday will remain south of the forecast area. Slightly cooler air
will filter into the area during the day Thursday, with highs in the
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A few lingering showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will
continue to be possible Thursday night into early Friday morning as
the slow-moving frontal boundary pushes southward, then rainfall
should begin clearing out of the area during the daytime hours
Friday. Cooler temperatures are expected Friday and especially
Friday night as the front clears out of the region, and there`s a
potential for patchy frost throughout the forecast area Saturday
morning as a surface high builds into the region and cooler air
sinks into the eastern Plains.

More seasonable temperatures will return for Saturday and Sunday as
southerly flow returns on the back side of the surface high and
ridging builds across the High Plains, allowing highs to return into
the 60s to lower 70s by early next week. Another round of showers
and storms is possible by the end of the forecast period Monday
afternoon and evening, but have kept PoPs fairly low to account for
uncertainty in the setup.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR conditions will dominate the region over the next 24 hours. Only
issues will be the winds going form gusty today to light and variable
overnight, veering to the east in the morning.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 721 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Have allowed the Red Flag warning, in effect for Monday, to expire as
evening conditions are starting to calm winds and allow humidity
values to begin rebounding. Overnight a surface high will slide
across the region, with the combination of nocturnal boundary layer
decoupling and a relaxing pressure gradient allowing winds to become
light and variable. Expect surface winds to generally prevail from
the north and/or east after sunrise Tuesday with speeds less than 10
MPH. However, still expect another day of low humidity values in the
afternoon as Gulf moisture wont arrive in the region till Wednesday
along with a strong southerly wind across Kansas and Missouri. As a
result, while conditions exceeding critical fire weather criteria are
not currently expected, thoughts are that both Tuesday and Wednesday
could experience heightened fire danger. Tuesday due to low humidity
and a light and variable wind; Wednesday due to strong and gusty
winds with our fine fuels still well cured. Wednesday night into
Thursday widespread rain and a return of cooler temperatures will
mitigate any fire concerns over the later periods of the work week
into the weekend.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter
FIRE WEATHER...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 310023
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
723 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Tonight into Tuesday: Fire weather concerns will continue through
the remainder of the afternoon, especially over northwest Missouri
into northeast Kansas where relative humidity values have fallen to
near 20 percent and southwest winds have been breezy. Otherwise,
surface high pressure moves across the area tonight into Tuesday.
Dry weather will continue through Tuesday night. As for
temperatures, warmer overnight lows are expected tonight with
readings in the 40s. Highs on Tuesday afternoon will be slightly
warmer in some areas, with all locations in the 70s.

Wednesday/Thursday: Much of Wednesday looks dry as the overall
system has slightly slowed. The main exception may be a few
scattered showers or thunderstorms during the day as a warm front
lifts north through the forecast area. The best chance for this
isolated activity will be over central Missouri. Otherwise, expect a
warm day with highs in the middle to upper 70s, with perhaps a few
80-degree locations. Moisture will also steadily increase with the
warm sector returning, with dewpoints well into the 50s.
Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the afternoon
hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This convection will
develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually reaching the
northwest portions of the forecast area after sunset Wednesday. The
overall severe weather threat appears marginal, with the highest
probability of strong to isolated severe storms over far northwest
Missouri. The primary limiting factor will be the timing of
convection reaching the CWA, where the loss of stronger diurnal
instability will be lost, as well as the anticipated linear
evolution of the convection and gradual undercut from the
thunderstorm cold pools. While storms may undergo a weakening trend,
there remains the potential for a few severe wind gusts in the most
robust activity. The best chance for precipitation will occur
Wednesday night through Thursday morning with the passage of the
front. Total precipitation amounts with this first round of
thunderstorms will average one-half inch, with higher amounts in the
more robust thunderstorm activity.

Rain will eventually push south of much of the forecast area during
the day Thursday as the surface front stalls just south of the CWA,
which is further north than previous thinking. Of course, the
frontal position will also likely be dependent on Wed night
convection. If in fact the front remains south of the CWA on
Thursday during peak heating, the primary severe weather threat on
Thursday will remain south of the forecast area. Slightly cooler air
will filter into the area during the day Thursday, with highs in the
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A few lingering showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will
continue to be possible Thursday night into early Friday morning as
the slow-moving frontal boundary pushes southward, then rainfall
should begin clearing out of the area during the daytime hours
Friday. Cooler temperatures are expected Friday and especially
Friday night as the front clears out of the region, and there`s a
potential for patchy frost throughout the forecast area Saturday
morning as a surface high builds into the region and cooler air
sinks into the eastern Plains.

More seasonable temperatures will return for Saturday and Sunday as
southerly flow returns on the back side of the surface high and
ridging builds across the High Plains, allowing highs to return into
the 60s to lower 70s by early next week. Another round of showers
and storms is possible by the end of the forecast period Monday
afternoon and evening, but have kept PoPs fairly low to account for
uncertainty in the setup.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR conditions will dominate the region over the next 24 hours. Only
issues will be the winds going form gusty today to light and variable
overnight, veering to the east in the morning.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 721 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Have allowed the Red Flag warning, in effect for Monday, to expire as
evening conditions are starting to calm winds and allow humidity
values to begin rebounding. Overnight a surface high will slide
across the region, with the combination of nocturnal boundary layer
decoupling and a relaxing pressure gradient allowing winds to become
light and variable. Expect surface winds to generally prevail from
the north and/or east after sunrise Tuesday with speeds less than 10
MPH. However, still expect another day of low humidity values in the
afternoon as Gulf moisture wont arrive in the region till Wednesday
along with a strong southerly wind across Kansas and Missouri. As a
result, while conditions exceeding critical fire weather criteria are
not currently expected, thoughts are that both Tuesday and Wednesday
could experience heightened fire danger. Tuesday due to low humidity
and a light and variable wind; Wednesday due to strong and gusty
winds with our fine fuels still well cured. Wednesday night into
Thursday widespread rain and a return of cooler temperatures will
mitigate any fire concerns over the later periods of the work week
into the weekend.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter
FIRE WEATHER...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KEAX 302339
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
639 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Tonight into Tuesday: Fire weather concerns will continue through
the remainder of the afternoon, especially over northwest Missouri
into northeast Kansas where relative humidity values have fallen to
near 20 percent and southwest winds have been breezy. Otherwise,
surface high pressure moves across the area tonight into Tuesday.
Dry weather will continue through Tuesday night. As for
temperatures, warmer overnight lows are expected tonight with
readings in the 40s. Highs on Tuesday afternoon will be slightly
warmer in some areas, with all locations in the 70s.

Wednesday/Thursday: Much of Wednesday looks dry as the overall
system has slightly slowed. The main exception may be a few
scattered showers or thunderstorms during the day as a warm front
lifts north through the forecast area. The best chance for this
isolated activity will be over central Missouri. Otherwise, expect a
warm day with highs in the middle to upper 70s, with perhaps a few
80-degree locations. Moisture will also steadily increase with the
warm sector returning, with dewpoints well into the 50s.
Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the afternoon
hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This convection will
develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually reaching the
northwest portions of the forecast area after sunset Wednesday. The
overall severe weather threat appears marginal, with the highest
probability of strong to isolated severe storms over far northwest
Missouri. The primary limiting factor will be the timing of
convection reaching the CWA, where the loss of stronger diurnal
instability will be lost, as well as the anticipated linear
evolution of the convection and gradual undercut from the
thunderstorm cold pools. While storms may undergo a weakening trend,
there remains the potential for a few severe wind gusts in the most
robust activity. The best chance for precipitation will occur
Wednesday night through Thursday morning with the passage of the
front. Total precipitation amounts with this first round of
thunderstorms will average one-half inch, with higher amounts in the
more robust thunderstorm activity.

Rain will eventually push south of much of the forecast area during
the day Thursday as the surface front stalls just south of the CWA,
which is further north than previous thinking. Of course, the
frontal position will also likely be dependent on Wed night
convection. If in fact the front remains south of the CWA on
Thursday during peak heating, the primary severe weather threat on
Thursday will remain south of the forecast area. Slightly cooler air
will filter into the area during the day Thursday, with highs in the
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A few lingering showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will
continue to be possible Thursday night into early Friday morning as
the slow-moving frontal boundary pushes southward, then rainfall
should begin clearing out of the area during the daytime hours
Friday. Cooler temperatures are expected Friday and especially
Friday night as the front clears out of the region, and there`s a
potential for patchy frost throughout the forecast area Saturday
morning as a surface high builds into the region and cooler air
sinks into the eastern Plains.

More seasonable temperatures will return for Saturday and Sunday as
southerly flow returns on the back side of the surface high and
ridging builds across the High Plains, allowing highs to return into
the 60s to lower 70s by early next week. Another round of showers
and storms is possible by the end of the forecast period Monday
afternoon and evening, but have kept PoPs fairly low to account for
uncertainty in the setup.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR conditions will dominate the region over the next 24 hours. Only
issues will be the winds going form gusty today to light and variable
overnight, veering to the east in the morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-102.

MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>005-
     011>013-020.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 302339
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
639 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Tonight into Tuesday: Fire weather concerns will continue through
the remainder of the afternoon, especially over northwest Missouri
into northeast Kansas where relative humidity values have fallen to
near 20 percent and southwest winds have been breezy. Otherwise,
surface high pressure moves across the area tonight into Tuesday.
Dry weather will continue through Tuesday night. As for
temperatures, warmer overnight lows are expected tonight with
readings in the 40s. Highs on Tuesday afternoon will be slightly
warmer in some areas, with all locations in the 70s.

Wednesday/Thursday: Much of Wednesday looks dry as the overall
system has slightly slowed. The main exception may be a few
scattered showers or thunderstorms during the day as a warm front
lifts north through the forecast area. The best chance for this
isolated activity will be over central Missouri. Otherwise, expect a
warm day with highs in the middle to upper 70s, with perhaps a few
80-degree locations. Moisture will also steadily increase with the
warm sector returning, with dewpoints well into the 50s.
Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the afternoon
hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This convection will
develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually reaching the
northwest portions of the forecast area after sunset Wednesday. The
overall severe weather threat appears marginal, with the highest
probability of strong to isolated severe storms over far northwest
Missouri. The primary limiting factor will be the timing of
convection reaching the CWA, where the loss of stronger diurnal
instability will be lost, as well as the anticipated linear
evolution of the convection and gradual undercut from the
thunderstorm cold pools. While storms may undergo a weakening trend,
there remains the potential for a few severe wind gusts in the most
robust activity. The best chance for precipitation will occur
Wednesday night through Thursday morning with the passage of the
front. Total precipitation amounts with this first round of
thunderstorms will average one-half inch, with higher amounts in the
more robust thunderstorm activity.

Rain will eventually push south of much of the forecast area during
the day Thursday as the surface front stalls just south of the CWA,
which is further north than previous thinking. Of course, the
frontal position will also likely be dependent on Wed night
convection. If in fact the front remains south of the CWA on
Thursday during peak heating, the primary severe weather threat on
Thursday will remain south of the forecast area. Slightly cooler air
will filter into the area during the day Thursday, with highs in the
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A few lingering showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will
continue to be possible Thursday night into early Friday morning as
the slow-moving frontal boundary pushes southward, then rainfall
should begin clearing out of the area during the daytime hours
Friday. Cooler temperatures are expected Friday and especially
Friday night as the front clears out of the region, and there`s a
potential for patchy frost throughout the forecast area Saturday
morning as a surface high builds into the region and cooler air
sinks into the eastern Plains.

More seasonable temperatures will return for Saturday and Sunday as
southerly flow returns on the back side of the surface high and
ridging builds across the High Plains, allowing highs to return into
the 60s to lower 70s by early next week. Another round of showers
and storms is possible by the end of the forecast period Monday
afternoon and evening, but have kept PoPs fairly low to account for
uncertainty in the setup.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR conditions will dominate the region over the next 24 hours. Only
issues will be the winds going form gusty today to light and variable
overnight, veering to the east in the morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-102.

MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>005-
     011>013-020.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KEAX 302339
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
639 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Tonight into Tuesday: Fire weather concerns will continue through
the remainder of the afternoon, especially over northwest Missouri
into northeast Kansas where relative humidity values have fallen to
near 20 percent and southwest winds have been breezy. Otherwise,
surface high pressure moves across the area tonight into Tuesday.
Dry weather will continue through Tuesday night. As for
temperatures, warmer overnight lows are expected tonight with
readings in the 40s. Highs on Tuesday afternoon will be slightly
warmer in some areas, with all locations in the 70s.

Wednesday/Thursday: Much of Wednesday looks dry as the overall
system has slightly slowed. The main exception may be a few
scattered showers or thunderstorms during the day as a warm front
lifts north through the forecast area. The best chance for this
isolated activity will be over central Missouri. Otherwise, expect a
warm day with highs in the middle to upper 70s, with perhaps a few
80-degree locations. Moisture will also steadily increase with the
warm sector returning, with dewpoints well into the 50s.
Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the afternoon
hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This convection will
develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually reaching the
northwest portions of the forecast area after sunset Wednesday. The
overall severe weather threat appears marginal, with the highest
probability of strong to isolated severe storms over far northwest
Missouri. The primary limiting factor will be the timing of
convection reaching the CWA, where the loss of stronger diurnal
instability will be lost, as well as the anticipated linear
evolution of the convection and gradual undercut from the
thunderstorm cold pools. While storms may undergo a weakening trend,
there remains the potential for a few severe wind gusts in the most
robust activity. The best chance for precipitation will occur
Wednesday night through Thursday morning with the passage of the
front. Total precipitation amounts with this first round of
thunderstorms will average one-half inch, with higher amounts in the
more robust thunderstorm activity.

Rain will eventually push south of much of the forecast area during
the day Thursday as the surface front stalls just south of the CWA,
which is further north than previous thinking. Of course, the
frontal position will also likely be dependent on Wed night
convection. If in fact the front remains south of the CWA on
Thursday during peak heating, the primary severe weather threat on
Thursday will remain south of the forecast area. Slightly cooler air
will filter into the area during the day Thursday, with highs in the
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A few lingering showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will
continue to be possible Thursday night into early Friday morning as
the slow-moving frontal boundary pushes southward, then rainfall
should begin clearing out of the area during the daytime hours
Friday. Cooler temperatures are expected Friday and especially
Friday night as the front clears out of the region, and there`s a
potential for patchy frost throughout the forecast area Saturday
morning as a surface high builds into the region and cooler air
sinks into the eastern Plains.

More seasonable temperatures will return for Saturday and Sunday as
southerly flow returns on the back side of the surface high and
ridging builds across the High Plains, allowing highs to return into
the 60s to lower 70s by early next week. Another round of showers
and storms is possible by the end of the forecast period Monday
afternoon and evening, but have kept PoPs fairly low to account for
uncertainty in the setup.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR conditions will dominate the region over the next 24 hours. Only
issues will be the winds going form gusty today to light and variable
overnight, veering to the east in the morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-102.

MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>005-
     011>013-020.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 302339
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
639 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Tonight into Tuesday: Fire weather concerns will continue through
the remainder of the afternoon, especially over northwest Missouri
into northeast Kansas where relative humidity values have fallen to
near 20 percent and southwest winds have been breezy. Otherwise,
surface high pressure moves across the area tonight into Tuesday.
Dry weather will continue through Tuesday night. As for
temperatures, warmer overnight lows are expected tonight with
readings in the 40s. Highs on Tuesday afternoon will be slightly
warmer in some areas, with all locations in the 70s.

Wednesday/Thursday: Much of Wednesday looks dry as the overall
system has slightly slowed. The main exception may be a few
scattered showers or thunderstorms during the day as a warm front
lifts north through the forecast area. The best chance for this
isolated activity will be over central Missouri. Otherwise, expect a
warm day with highs in the middle to upper 70s, with perhaps a few
80-degree locations. Moisture will also steadily increase with the
warm sector returning, with dewpoints well into the 50s.
Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the afternoon
hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This convection will
develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually reaching the
northwest portions of the forecast area after sunset Wednesday. The
overall severe weather threat appears marginal, with the highest
probability of strong to isolated severe storms over far northwest
Missouri. The primary limiting factor will be the timing of
convection reaching the CWA, where the loss of stronger diurnal
instability will be lost, as well as the anticipated linear
evolution of the convection and gradual undercut from the
thunderstorm cold pools. While storms may undergo a weakening trend,
there remains the potential for a few severe wind gusts in the most
robust activity. The best chance for precipitation will occur
Wednesday night through Thursday morning with the passage of the
front. Total precipitation amounts with this first round of
thunderstorms will average one-half inch, with higher amounts in the
more robust thunderstorm activity.

Rain will eventually push south of much of the forecast area during
the day Thursday as the surface front stalls just south of the CWA,
which is further north than previous thinking. Of course, the
frontal position will also likely be dependent on Wed night
convection. If in fact the front remains south of the CWA on
Thursday during peak heating, the primary severe weather threat on
Thursday will remain south of the forecast area. Slightly cooler air
will filter into the area during the day Thursday, with highs in the
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A few lingering showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will
continue to be possible Thursday night into early Friday morning as
the slow-moving frontal boundary pushes southward, then rainfall
should begin clearing out of the area during the daytime hours
Friday. Cooler temperatures are expected Friday and especially
Friday night as the front clears out of the region, and there`s a
potential for patchy frost throughout the forecast area Saturday
morning as a surface high builds into the region and cooler air
sinks into the eastern Plains.

More seasonable temperatures will return for Saturday and Sunday as
southerly flow returns on the back side of the surface high and
ridging builds across the High Plains, allowing highs to return into
the 60s to lower 70s by early next week. Another round of showers
and storms is possible by the end of the forecast period Monday
afternoon and evening, but have kept PoPs fairly low to account for
uncertainty in the setup.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR conditions will dominate the region over the next 24 hours. Only
issues will be the winds going form gusty today to light and variable
overnight, veering to the east in the morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-102.

MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>005-
     011>013-020.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KLSX 302323
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
623 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

South to southwest flow will prevail tonight ahead of a weak cold
front which will move through Tuesday.  Dry atmosphere will provide
a mostly clear sky...with perhaps a few cirrus clouds.  Temperatures
look to stay near or just above climatological normals due to the
warm southwest winds.  Used a blend of guidance for lows, but leaned
toward some of the warmer members of the ensemble.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

The forecast over this period can be broken down into three
segments, all primarily based off the upper flow pattern.

Through Tuesday night, a northwest flow will prevail over our
region, delivering quiet wx, thanks to dry air and little in the way
of any forcing mechanisms.  A weak cold front will move thru during
the day on Tuesday, but both the associated WAA ahead of it, and its
expected position when it might be able to gain some leverage from
the heating of the day for some surface based convection are not
favorable for any mention of pcpn at this time.  Have continued the
dry forecast from the previous package.

The air following the cold front will not be much different than the
one ahead of it, and so despite NW winds for much of Tuesday for
most areas, temps are expected to follow persistence or a bit above.

The upper flow will then back to the W-SW by late Wednesday and
continue into Friday night, signalling a more active wx pattern to
close the work week.  The old front from Tuesday will be buckling
northward as a warm front on Wednesday, but the timing looks to be a
bit slower than it did 24hrs ago.  Given the significant increase of
moisture thru the column that will accompany this warm front, its
delay will still mean worth a small PoP mention for the afternoon
and evening but over a more western area than 24hrs ago.

More significant forcing will move in late Wednesday night and
continue into Thursday evening as a stronger cold front than the one
on Tuesday drops down and will result in periods of showers and
thunderstorms.  Another shot of forcing, mostly frontogenetical and
post-frontal, will then move in on Friday providing mostly rain with
any thunder confined to southern MO and IL.

A warm day is expected for Wednesday, and potentially into Thursday
depending on the exact timing of the rain and front, with much
cooler temps than expected on Friday behind the front with rain.

A period of quieter wx is then expected for the weekend with NW flow
restored by Saturday morning and drier air moving in.  Temps will be
quick to rebound, after a cool Saturday, towards normal on Sunday as
surface winds turn from the south.

Southwest upper flow could occur already by Monday next week with
the normal accompanying rain chances, but some model disagreement on
timing here so went conservative with PoPs and leaned towards climo
values.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 548 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

VFR conditions expected through this TAF forecast period.
Scattered cirrus overnight into Tuesday. Southwest winds will
gradually veer overnight ahead of a weak cold front which will
move through KUIN around 10Z and into the KSTL metro TAF sites
around 14Z. Will add LLWS this evening until frontal passage as
most model output shows winds increase to near 40 knots at around
1000 feet AGL.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions expected. Surface winds will
veer slowly overnight ahead of an approaching front. Will add LLWS
this evening until frontal passage as most model output shows
winds increase to near 40 knots at around 1000 feet AGL. As the
front passes around 14Z, winds will become northwest but remain
relatively light.

Browning

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 302323
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
623 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

South to southwest flow will prevail tonight ahead of a weak cold
front which will move through Tuesday.  Dry atmosphere will provide
a mostly clear sky...with perhaps a few cirrus clouds.  Temperatures
look to stay near or just above climatological normals due to the
warm southwest winds.  Used a blend of guidance for lows, but leaned
toward some of the warmer members of the ensemble.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

The forecast over this period can be broken down into three
segments, all primarily based off the upper flow pattern.

Through Tuesday night, a northwest flow will prevail over our
region, delivering quiet wx, thanks to dry air and little in the way
of any forcing mechanisms.  A weak cold front will move thru during
the day on Tuesday, but both the associated WAA ahead of it, and its
expected position when it might be able to gain some leverage from
the heating of the day for some surface based convection are not
favorable for any mention of pcpn at this time.  Have continued the
dry forecast from the previous package.

The air following the cold front will not be much different than the
one ahead of it, and so despite NW winds for much of Tuesday for
most areas, temps are expected to follow persistence or a bit above.

The upper flow will then back to the W-SW by late Wednesday and
continue into Friday night, signalling a more active wx pattern to
close the work week.  The old front from Tuesday will be buckling
northward as a warm front on Wednesday, but the timing looks to be a
bit slower than it did 24hrs ago.  Given the significant increase of
moisture thru the column that will accompany this warm front, its
delay will still mean worth a small PoP mention for the afternoon
and evening but over a more western area than 24hrs ago.

More significant forcing will move in late Wednesday night and
continue into Thursday evening as a stronger cold front than the one
on Tuesday drops down and will result in periods of showers and
thunderstorms.  Another shot of forcing, mostly frontogenetical and
post-frontal, will then move in on Friday providing mostly rain with
any thunder confined to southern MO and IL.

A warm day is expected for Wednesday, and potentially into Thursday
depending on the exact timing of the rain and front, with much
cooler temps than expected on Friday behind the front with rain.

A period of quieter wx is then expected for the weekend with NW flow
restored by Saturday morning and drier air moving in.  Temps will be
quick to rebound, after a cool Saturday, towards normal on Sunday as
surface winds turn from the south.

Southwest upper flow could occur already by Monday next week with
the normal accompanying rain chances, but some model disagreement on
timing here so went conservative with PoPs and leaned towards climo
values.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 548 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

VFR conditions expected through this TAF forecast period.
Scattered cirrus overnight into Tuesday. Southwest winds will
gradually veer overnight ahead of a weak cold front which will
move through KUIN around 10Z and into the KSTL metro TAF sites
around 14Z. Will add LLWS this evening until frontal passage as
most model output shows winds increase to near 40 knots at around
1000 feet AGL.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions expected. Surface winds will
veer slowly overnight ahead of an approaching front. Will add LLWS
this evening until frontal passage as most model output shows
winds increase to near 40 knots at around 1000 feet AGL. As the
front passes around 14Z, winds will become northwest but remain
relatively light.

Browning

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 302300
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
600 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will make its way
eastward during the overnight hours. This will bring the winds
back around to the south and allow Gulf moisture to begin making
its way northward. This will allow the stalled front over the
southern plains to begin advancing northeastward as a warm front.

Temperatures will make it into the 70s region wide on Tuesday with
a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms developing during the
afternoon across extreme southern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging will be underway Tuesday night as the
southerly winds continue to bring warm and moist air into the
region.

Wednesday will see temperatures climb into the middle 70s to
around 80 degrees across the Ozarks as a slow moving cold front
makes its way across the plains.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to impact the region
Wednesday afternoon as the front makes slow progress to the east.
Instability in advance of the front will be in the 800-1600 j/kg
range which will be enough to allow some strong storms to
develop.

The models all seem to hang the front up across the region from
Thursday night through Friday afternoon as a surface low moves
northeast across the southern plains and through the region. This
may bring a prolonged period of rainfall and thunderstorms. Will
need to watch the potential for some flooding with this system as
well.

High pressure will then build into the region behind the front.
The high looks as though it will move of the Pacific instead of
diving out of Canada. This should keep temperatures from being too
cool, though Saturday morning lows may fall into the middle 30s
across portions of the Ozarks.

Another storm system will move towards the region early next week
though models are handling the timing and coverage of rain
differently.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 548 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Generally expecting VFR conditions through the period. May see
some MVFR visibilities at BBG overnight with a light and variable
wind setting up. A weak cold front will push through during the
Tuesday morning hours which will not do more than shift surface
winds to the north.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 302300
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
600 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will make its way
eastward during the overnight hours. This will bring the winds
back around to the south and allow Gulf moisture to begin making
its way northward. This will allow the stalled front over the
southern plains to begin advancing northeastward as a warm front.

Temperatures will make it into the 70s region wide on Tuesday with
a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms developing during the
afternoon across extreme southern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging will be underway Tuesday night as the
southerly winds continue to bring warm and moist air into the
region.

Wednesday will see temperatures climb into the middle 70s to
around 80 degrees across the Ozarks as a slow moving cold front
makes its way across the plains.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to impact the region
Wednesday afternoon as the front makes slow progress to the east.
Instability in advance of the front will be in the 800-1600 j/kg
range which will be enough to allow some strong storms to
develop.

The models all seem to hang the front up across the region from
Thursday night through Friday afternoon as a surface low moves
northeast across the southern plains and through the region. This
may bring a prolonged period of rainfall and thunderstorms. Will
need to watch the potential for some flooding with this system as
well.

High pressure will then build into the region behind the front.
The high looks as though it will move of the Pacific instead of
diving out of Canada. This should keep temperatures from being too
cool, though Saturday morning lows may fall into the middle 30s
across portions of the Ozarks.

Another storm system will move towards the region early next week
though models are handling the timing and coverage of rain
differently.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 548 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Generally expecting VFR conditions through the period. May see
some MVFR visibilities at BBG overnight with a light and variable
wind setting up. A weak cold front will push through during the
Tuesday morning hours which will not do more than shift surface
winds to the north.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 302300
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
600 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will make its way
eastward during the overnight hours. This will bring the winds
back around to the south and allow Gulf moisture to begin making
its way northward. This will allow the stalled front over the
southern plains to begin advancing northeastward as a warm front.

Temperatures will make it into the 70s region wide on Tuesday with
a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms developing during the
afternoon across extreme southern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging will be underway Tuesday night as the
southerly winds continue to bring warm and moist air into the
region.

Wednesday will see temperatures climb into the middle 70s to
around 80 degrees across the Ozarks as a slow moving cold front
makes its way across the plains.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to impact the region
Wednesday afternoon as the front makes slow progress to the east.
Instability in advance of the front will be in the 800-1600 j/kg
range which will be enough to allow some strong storms to
develop.

The models all seem to hang the front up across the region from
Thursday night through Friday afternoon as a surface low moves
northeast across the southern plains and through the region. This
may bring a prolonged period of rainfall and thunderstorms. Will
need to watch the potential for some flooding with this system as
well.

High pressure will then build into the region behind the front.
The high looks as though it will move of the Pacific instead of
diving out of Canada. This should keep temperatures from being too
cool, though Saturday morning lows may fall into the middle 30s
across portions of the Ozarks.

Another storm system will move towards the region early next week
though models are handling the timing and coverage of rain
differently.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 548 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Generally expecting VFR conditions through the period. May see
some MVFR visibilities at BBG overnight with a light and variable
wind setting up. A weak cold front will push through during the
Tuesday morning hours which will not do more than shift surface
winds to the north.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 302300
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
600 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will make its way
eastward during the overnight hours. This will bring the winds
back around to the south and allow Gulf moisture to begin making
its way northward. This will allow the stalled front over the
southern plains to begin advancing northeastward as a warm front.

Temperatures will make it into the 70s region wide on Tuesday with
a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms developing during the
afternoon across extreme southern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging will be underway Tuesday night as the
southerly winds continue to bring warm and moist air into the
region.

Wednesday will see temperatures climb into the middle 70s to
around 80 degrees across the Ozarks as a slow moving cold front
makes its way across the plains.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to impact the region
Wednesday afternoon as the front makes slow progress to the east.
Instability in advance of the front will be in the 800-1600 j/kg
range which will be enough to allow some strong storms to
develop.

The models all seem to hang the front up across the region from
Thursday night through Friday afternoon as a surface low moves
northeast across the southern plains and through the region. This
may bring a prolonged period of rainfall and thunderstorms. Will
need to watch the potential for some flooding with this system as
well.

High pressure will then build into the region behind the front.
The high looks as though it will move of the Pacific instead of
diving out of Canada. This should keep temperatures from being too
cool, though Saturday morning lows may fall into the middle 30s
across portions of the Ozarks.

Another storm system will move towards the region early next week
though models are handling the timing and coverage of rain
differently.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 548 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Generally expecting VFR conditions through the period. May see
some MVFR visibilities at BBG overnight with a light and variable
wind setting up. A weak cold front will push through during the
Tuesday morning hours which will not do more than shift surface
winds to the north.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 302300
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
600 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will make its way
eastward during the overnight hours. This will bring the winds
back around to the south and allow Gulf moisture to begin making
its way northward. This will allow the stalled front over the
southern plains to begin advancing northeastward as a warm front.

Temperatures will make it into the 70s region wide on Tuesday with
a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms developing during the
afternoon across extreme southern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging will be underway Tuesday night as the
southerly winds continue to bring warm and moist air into the
region.

Wednesday will see temperatures climb into the middle 70s to
around 80 degrees across the Ozarks as a slow moving cold front
makes its way across the plains.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to impact the region
Wednesday afternoon as the front makes slow progress to the east.
Instability in advance of the front will be in the 800-1600 j/kg
range which will be enough to allow some strong storms to
develop.

The models all seem to hang the front up across the region from
Thursday night through Friday afternoon as a surface low moves
northeast across the southern plains and through the region. This
may bring a prolonged period of rainfall and thunderstorms. Will
need to watch the potential for some flooding with this system as
well.

High pressure will then build into the region behind the front.
The high looks as though it will move of the Pacific instead of
diving out of Canada. This should keep temperatures from being too
cool, though Saturday morning lows may fall into the middle 30s
across portions of the Ozarks.

Another storm system will move towards the region early next week
though models are handling the timing and coverage of rain
differently.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 548 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Generally expecting VFR conditions through the period. May see
some MVFR visibilities at BBG overnight with a light and variable
wind setting up. A weak cold front will push through during the
Tuesday morning hours which will not do more than shift surface
winds to the north.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 302300
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
600 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will make its way
eastward during the overnight hours. This will bring the winds
back around to the south and allow Gulf moisture to begin making
its way northward. This will allow the stalled front over the
southern plains to begin advancing northeastward as a warm front.

Temperatures will make it into the 70s region wide on Tuesday with
a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms developing during the
afternoon across extreme southern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging will be underway Tuesday night as the
southerly winds continue to bring warm and moist air into the
region.

Wednesday will see temperatures climb into the middle 70s to
around 80 degrees across the Ozarks as a slow moving cold front
makes its way across the plains.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to impact the region
Wednesday afternoon as the front makes slow progress to the east.
Instability in advance of the front will be in the 800-1600 j/kg
range which will be enough to allow some strong storms to
develop.

The models all seem to hang the front up across the region from
Thursday night through Friday afternoon as a surface low moves
northeast across the southern plains and through the region. This
may bring a prolonged period of rainfall and thunderstorms. Will
need to watch the potential for some flooding with this system as
well.

High pressure will then build into the region behind the front.
The high looks as though it will move of the Pacific instead of
diving out of Canada. This should keep temperatures from being too
cool, though Saturday morning lows may fall into the middle 30s
across portions of the Ozarks.

Another storm system will move towards the region early next week
though models are handling the timing and coverage of rain
differently.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 548 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Generally expecting VFR conditions through the period. May see
some MVFR visibilities at BBG overnight with a light and variable
wind setting up. A weak cold front will push through during the
Tuesday morning hours which will not do more than shift surface
winds to the north.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KLSX 302050
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
350 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

South to southwest flow will prevail tonight ahead of a weak cold
front which will move through Tuesday.  Dry atmosphere will provide
a mostly clear sky...with perhaps a few cirrus clouds.  Temperatures
look to stay near or just above climatological normals due to the
warm southwest winds.  Used a blend of guidance for lows, but leaned
toward some of the warmer members of the ensemble.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

The forecast over this period can be broken down into three
segments, all primarily based off the upper flow pattern.

Through Tuesday night, a northwest flow will prevail over our
region, delivering quiet wx, thanks to dry air and little in the way
of any forcing mechanisms.  A weak cold front will move thru during
the day on Tuesday, but both the associated WAA ahead of it, and its
expected position when it might be able to gain some leverage from
the heating of the day for some surface based convection are not
favorable for any mention of pcpn at this time.  Have continued the
dry forecast from the previous package.

The air following the cold front will not be much different than the
one ahead of it, and so despite NW winds for much of Tuesday for
most areas, temps are expected to follow persistence or a bit above.

The upper flow will then back to the W-SW by late Wednesday and
continue into Friday night, signalling a more active wx pattern to
close the work week.  The old front from Tuesday will be buckling
northward as a warm front on Wednesday, but the timing looks to be a
bit slower than it did 24hrs ago.  Given the significant increase of
moisture thru the column that will accompany this warm front, its
delay will still mean worth a small PoP mention for the afternoon
and evening but over a more western area than 24hrs ago.

More significant forcing will move in late Wednesday night and
continue into Thursday evening as a stronger cold front than the one
on Tuesday drops down and will result in periods of showers and
thunderstorms.  Another shot of forcing, mostly frontogenetical and
post-frontal, will then move in on Friday providing mostly rain with
any thunder confined to southern MO and IL.

A warm day is expected for Wednesday, and potentially into Thursday
depending on the exact timing of the rain and front, with much
cooler temps than expected on Friday behind the front with rain.

A period of quieter wx is then expected for the weekend with NW flow
restored by Saturday morning and drier air moving in.  Temps will be
quick to rebound, after a cool Saturday, towards normal on Sunday as
surface winds turn from the south.

Southwest upper flow could occur already by Monday next week with
the normal accompanying rain chances, but some model disagreement on
timing here so went conservative with PoPs and leaned towards climo
values.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

VFR flight conditions will prevail through Tuesday. Prevailing
southwest flow will turn to the west and then north-northwest on
Tuesday morning as a weak cold front moves through the area.
Marginal low level wind shear conditions are possible overnight
tonight, but have opted not to mention in the TAFs at this time as
model guidance sometimes overestimates low level winds.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions will prevail through Tuesday. Prevailing
southwest flow will turn to the west overnight and then north-
northwest as a weak cold front passes through the terminal around
13-14Z. Marginal low level wind shear conditions are possible
overnight tonight, but have opted not to mention in the KSTL TAF
at this time as model guidance sometimes overestimates low level
winds.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 302050
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
350 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

South to southwest flow will prevail tonight ahead of a weak cold
front which will move through Tuesday.  Dry atmosphere will provide
a mostly clear sky...with perhaps a few cirrus clouds.  Temperatures
look to stay near or just above climatological normals due to the
warm southwest winds.  Used a blend of guidance for lows, but leaned
toward some of the warmer members of the ensemble.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

The forecast over this period can be broken down into three
segments, all primarily based off the upper flow pattern.

Through Tuesday night, a northwest flow will prevail over our
region, delivering quiet wx, thanks to dry air and little in the way
of any forcing mechanisms.  A weak cold front will move thru during
the day on Tuesday, but both the associated WAA ahead of it, and its
expected position when it might be able to gain some leverage from
the heating of the day for some surface based convection are not
favorable for any mention of pcpn at this time.  Have continued the
dry forecast from the previous package.

The air following the cold front will not be much different than the
one ahead of it, and so despite NW winds for much of Tuesday for
most areas, temps are expected to follow persistence or a bit above.

The upper flow will then back to the W-SW by late Wednesday and
continue into Friday night, signalling a more active wx pattern to
close the work week.  The old front from Tuesday will be buckling
northward as a warm front on Wednesday, but the timing looks to be a
bit slower than it did 24hrs ago.  Given the significant increase of
moisture thru the column that will accompany this warm front, its
delay will still mean worth a small PoP mention for the afternoon
and evening but over a more western area than 24hrs ago.

More significant forcing will move in late Wednesday night and
continue into Thursday evening as a stronger cold front than the one
on Tuesday drops down and will result in periods of showers and
thunderstorms.  Another shot of forcing, mostly frontogenetical and
post-frontal, will then move in on Friday providing mostly rain with
any thunder confined to southern MO and IL.

A warm day is expected for Wednesday, and potentially into Thursday
depending on the exact timing of the rain and front, with much
cooler temps than expected on Friday behind the front with rain.

A period of quieter wx is then expected for the weekend with NW flow
restored by Saturday morning and drier air moving in.  Temps will be
quick to rebound, after a cool Saturday, towards normal on Sunday as
surface winds turn from the south.

Southwest upper flow could occur already by Monday next week with
the normal accompanying rain chances, but some model disagreement on
timing here so went conservative with PoPs and leaned towards climo
values.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

VFR flight conditions will prevail through Tuesday. Prevailing
southwest flow will turn to the west and then north-northwest on
Tuesday morning as a weak cold front moves through the area.
Marginal low level wind shear conditions are possible overnight
tonight, but have opted not to mention in the TAFs at this time as
model guidance sometimes overestimates low level winds.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions will prevail through Tuesday. Prevailing
southwest flow will turn to the west overnight and then north-
northwest as a weak cold front passes through the terminal around
13-14Z. Marginal low level wind shear conditions are possible
overnight tonight, but have opted not to mention in the KSTL TAF
at this time as model guidance sometimes overestimates low level
winds.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 302050
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
350 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

South to southwest flow will prevail tonight ahead of a weak cold
front which will move through Tuesday.  Dry atmosphere will provide
a mostly clear sky...with perhaps a few cirrus clouds.  Temperatures
look to stay near or just above climatological normals due to the
warm southwest winds.  Used a blend of guidance for lows, but leaned
toward some of the warmer members of the ensemble.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

The forecast over this period can be broken down into three
segments, all primarily based off the upper flow pattern.

Through Tuesday night, a northwest flow will prevail over our
region, delivering quiet wx, thanks to dry air and little in the way
of any forcing mechanisms.  A weak cold front will move thru during
the day on Tuesday, but both the associated WAA ahead of it, and its
expected position when it might be able to gain some leverage from
the heating of the day for some surface based convection are not
favorable for any mention of pcpn at this time.  Have continued the
dry forecast from the previous package.

The air following the cold front will not be much different than the
one ahead of it, and so despite NW winds for much of Tuesday for
most areas, temps are expected to follow persistence or a bit above.

The upper flow will then back to the W-SW by late Wednesday and
continue into Friday night, signalling a more active wx pattern to
close the work week.  The old front from Tuesday will be buckling
northward as a warm front on Wednesday, but the timing looks to be a
bit slower than it did 24hrs ago.  Given the significant increase of
moisture thru the column that will accompany this warm front, its
delay will still mean worth a small PoP mention for the afternoon
and evening but over a more western area than 24hrs ago.

More significant forcing will move in late Wednesday night and
continue into Thursday evening as a stronger cold front than the one
on Tuesday drops down and will result in periods of showers and
thunderstorms.  Another shot of forcing, mostly frontogenetical and
post-frontal, will then move in on Friday providing mostly rain with
any thunder confined to southern MO and IL.

A warm day is expected for Wednesday, and potentially into Thursday
depending on the exact timing of the rain and front, with much
cooler temps than expected on Friday behind the front with rain.

A period of quieter wx is then expected for the weekend with NW flow
restored by Saturday morning and drier air moving in.  Temps will be
quick to rebound, after a cool Saturday, towards normal on Sunday as
surface winds turn from the south.

Southwest upper flow could occur already by Monday next week with
the normal accompanying rain chances, but some model disagreement on
timing here so went conservative with PoPs and leaned towards climo
values.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

VFR flight conditions will prevail through Tuesday. Prevailing
southwest flow will turn to the west and then north-northwest on
Tuesday morning as a weak cold front moves through the area.
Marginal low level wind shear conditions are possible overnight
tonight, but have opted not to mention in the TAFs at this time as
model guidance sometimes overestimates low level winds.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions will prevail through Tuesday. Prevailing
southwest flow will turn to the west overnight and then north-
northwest as a weak cold front passes through the terminal around
13-14Z. Marginal low level wind shear conditions are possible
overnight tonight, but have opted not to mention in the KSTL TAF
at this time as model guidance sometimes overestimates low level
winds.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 302050
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
350 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

South to southwest flow will prevail tonight ahead of a weak cold
front which will move through Tuesday.  Dry atmosphere will provide
a mostly clear sky...with perhaps a few cirrus clouds.  Temperatures
look to stay near or just above climatological normals due to the
warm southwest winds.  Used a blend of guidance for lows, but leaned
toward some of the warmer members of the ensemble.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

The forecast over this period can be broken down into three
segments, all primarily based off the upper flow pattern.

Through Tuesday night, a northwest flow will prevail over our
region, delivering quiet wx, thanks to dry air and little in the way
of any forcing mechanisms.  A weak cold front will move thru during
the day on Tuesday, but both the associated WAA ahead of it, and its
expected position when it might be able to gain some leverage from
the heating of the day for some surface based convection are not
favorable for any mention of pcpn at this time.  Have continued the
dry forecast from the previous package.

The air following the cold front will not be much different than the
one ahead of it, and so despite NW winds for much of Tuesday for
most areas, temps are expected to follow persistence or a bit above.

The upper flow will then back to the W-SW by late Wednesday and
continue into Friday night, signalling a more active wx pattern to
close the work week.  The old front from Tuesday will be buckling
northward as a warm front on Wednesday, but the timing looks to be a
bit slower than it did 24hrs ago.  Given the significant increase of
moisture thru the column that will accompany this warm front, its
delay will still mean worth a small PoP mention for the afternoon
and evening but over a more western area than 24hrs ago.

More significant forcing will move in late Wednesday night and
continue into Thursday evening as a stronger cold front than the one
on Tuesday drops down and will result in periods of showers and
thunderstorms.  Another shot of forcing, mostly frontogenetical and
post-frontal, will then move in on Friday providing mostly rain with
any thunder confined to southern MO and IL.

A warm day is expected for Wednesday, and potentially into Thursday
depending on the exact timing of the rain and front, with much
cooler temps than expected on Friday behind the front with rain.

A period of quieter wx is then expected for the weekend with NW flow
restored by Saturday morning and drier air moving in.  Temps will be
quick to rebound, after a cool Saturday, towards normal on Sunday as
surface winds turn from the south.

Southwest upper flow could occur already by Monday next week with
the normal accompanying rain chances, but some model disagreement on
timing here so went conservative with PoPs and leaned towards climo
values.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

VFR flight conditions will prevail through Tuesday. Prevailing
southwest flow will turn to the west and then north-northwest on
Tuesday morning as a weak cold front moves through the area.
Marginal low level wind shear conditions are possible overnight
tonight, but have opted not to mention in the TAFs at this time as
model guidance sometimes overestimates low level winds.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions will prevail through Tuesday. Prevailing
southwest flow will turn to the west overnight and then north-
northwest as a weak cold front passes through the terminal around
13-14Z. Marginal low level wind shear conditions are possible
overnight tonight, but have opted not to mention in the KSTL TAF
at this time as model guidance sometimes overestimates low level
winds.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 302050
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
350 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

South to southwest flow will prevail tonight ahead of a weak cold
front which will move through Tuesday.  Dry atmosphere will provide
a mostly clear sky...with perhaps a few cirrus clouds.  Temperatures
look to stay near or just above climatological normals due to the
warm southwest winds.  Used a blend of guidance for lows, but leaned
toward some of the warmer members of the ensemble.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

The forecast over this period can be broken down into three
segments, all primarily based off the upper flow pattern.

Through Tuesday night, a northwest flow will prevail over our
region, delivering quiet wx, thanks to dry air and little in the way
of any forcing mechanisms.  A weak cold front will move thru during
the day on Tuesday, but both the associated WAA ahead of it, and its
expected position when it might be able to gain some leverage from
the heating of the day for some surface based convection are not
favorable for any mention of pcpn at this time.  Have continued the
dry forecast from the previous package.

The air following the cold front will not be much different than the
one ahead of it, and so despite NW winds for much of Tuesday for
most areas, temps are expected to follow persistence or a bit above.

The upper flow will then back to the W-SW by late Wednesday and
continue into Friday night, signalling a more active wx pattern to
close the work week.  The old front from Tuesday will be buckling
northward as a warm front on Wednesday, but the timing looks to be a
bit slower than it did 24hrs ago.  Given the significant increase of
moisture thru the column that will accompany this warm front, its
delay will still mean worth a small PoP mention for the afternoon
and evening but over a more western area than 24hrs ago.

More significant forcing will move in late Wednesday night and
continue into Thursday evening as a stronger cold front than the one
on Tuesday drops down and will result in periods of showers and
thunderstorms.  Another shot of forcing, mostly frontogenetical and
post-frontal, will then move in on Friday providing mostly rain with
any thunder confined to southern MO and IL.

A warm day is expected for Wednesday, and potentially into Thursday
depending on the exact timing of the rain and front, with much
cooler temps than expected on Friday behind the front with rain.

A period of quieter wx is then expected for the weekend with NW flow
restored by Saturday morning and drier air moving in.  Temps will be
quick to rebound, after a cool Saturday, towards normal on Sunday as
surface winds turn from the south.

Southwest upper flow could occur already by Monday next week with
the normal accompanying rain chances, but some model disagreement on
timing here so went conservative with PoPs and leaned towards climo
values.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

VFR flight conditions will prevail through Tuesday. Prevailing
southwest flow will turn to the west and then north-northwest on
Tuesday morning as a weak cold front moves through the area.
Marginal low level wind shear conditions are possible overnight
tonight, but have opted not to mention in the TAFs at this time as
model guidance sometimes overestimates low level winds.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions will prevail through Tuesday. Prevailing
southwest flow will turn to the west overnight and then north-
northwest as a weak cold front passes through the terminal around
13-14Z. Marginal low level wind shear conditions are possible
overnight tonight, but have opted not to mention in the KSTL TAF
at this time as model guidance sometimes overestimates low level
winds.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 302050
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
350 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

South to southwest flow will prevail tonight ahead of a weak cold
front which will move through Tuesday.  Dry atmosphere will provide
a mostly clear sky...with perhaps a few cirrus clouds.  Temperatures
look to stay near or just above climatological normals due to the
warm southwest winds.  Used a blend of guidance for lows, but leaned
toward some of the warmer members of the ensemble.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

The forecast over this period can be broken down into three
segments, all primarily based off the upper flow pattern.

Through Tuesday night, a northwest flow will prevail over our
region, delivering quiet wx, thanks to dry air and little in the way
of any forcing mechanisms.  A weak cold front will move thru during
the day on Tuesday, but both the associated WAA ahead of it, and its
expected position when it might be able to gain some leverage from
the heating of the day for some surface based convection are not
favorable for any mention of pcpn at this time.  Have continued the
dry forecast from the previous package.

The air following the cold front will not be much different than the
one ahead of it, and so despite NW winds for much of Tuesday for
most areas, temps are expected to follow persistence or a bit above.

The upper flow will then back to the W-SW by late Wednesday and
continue into Friday night, signalling a more active wx pattern to
close the work week.  The old front from Tuesday will be buckling
northward as a warm front on Wednesday, but the timing looks to be a
bit slower than it did 24hrs ago.  Given the significant increase of
moisture thru the column that will accompany this warm front, its
delay will still mean worth a small PoP mention for the afternoon
and evening but over a more western area than 24hrs ago.

More significant forcing will move in late Wednesday night and
continue into Thursday evening as a stronger cold front than the one
on Tuesday drops down and will result in periods of showers and
thunderstorms.  Another shot of forcing, mostly frontogenetical and
post-frontal, will then move in on Friday providing mostly rain with
any thunder confined to southern MO and IL.

A warm day is expected for Wednesday, and potentially into Thursday
depending on the exact timing of the rain and front, with much
cooler temps than expected on Friday behind the front with rain.

A period of quieter wx is then expected for the weekend with NW flow
restored by Saturday morning and drier air moving in.  Temps will be
quick to rebound, after a cool Saturday, towards normal on Sunday as
surface winds turn from the south.

Southwest upper flow could occur already by Monday next week with
the normal accompanying rain chances, but some model disagreement on
timing here so went conservative with PoPs and leaned towards climo
values.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

VFR flight conditions will prevail through Tuesday. Prevailing
southwest flow will turn to the west and then north-northwest on
Tuesday morning as a weak cold front moves through the area.
Marginal low level wind shear conditions are possible overnight
tonight, but have opted not to mention in the TAFs at this time as
model guidance sometimes overestimates low level winds.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions will prevail through Tuesday. Prevailing
southwest flow will turn to the west overnight and then north-
northwest as a weak cold front passes through the terminal around
13-14Z. Marginal low level wind shear conditions are possible
overnight tonight, but have opted not to mention in the KSTL TAF
at this time as model guidance sometimes overestimates low level
winds.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 302050
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
350 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

South to southwest flow will prevail tonight ahead of a weak cold
front which will move through Tuesday.  Dry atmosphere will provide
a mostly clear sky...with perhaps a few cirrus clouds.  Temperatures
look to stay near or just above climatological normals due to the
warm southwest winds.  Used a blend of guidance for lows, but leaned
toward some of the warmer members of the ensemble.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

The forecast over this period can be broken down into three
segments, all primarily based off the upper flow pattern.

Through Tuesday night, a northwest flow will prevail over our
region, delivering quiet wx, thanks to dry air and little in the way
of any forcing mechanisms.  A weak cold front will move thru during
the day on Tuesday, but both the associated WAA ahead of it, and its
expected position when it might be able to gain some leverage from
the heating of the day for some surface based convection are not
favorable for any mention of pcpn at this time.  Have continued the
dry forecast from the previous package.

The air following the cold front will not be much different than the
one ahead of it, and so despite NW winds for much of Tuesday for
most areas, temps are expected to follow persistence or a bit above.

The upper flow will then back to the W-SW by late Wednesday and
continue into Friday night, signalling a more active wx pattern to
close the work week.  The old front from Tuesday will be buckling
northward as a warm front on Wednesday, but the timing looks to be a
bit slower than it did 24hrs ago.  Given the significant increase of
moisture thru the column that will accompany this warm front, its
delay will still mean worth a small PoP mention for the afternoon
and evening but over a more western area than 24hrs ago.

More significant forcing will move in late Wednesday night and
continue into Thursday evening as a stronger cold front than the one
on Tuesday drops down and will result in periods of showers and
thunderstorms.  Another shot of forcing, mostly frontogenetical and
post-frontal, will then move in on Friday providing mostly rain with
any thunder confined to southern MO and IL.

A warm day is expected for Wednesday, and potentially into Thursday
depending on the exact timing of the rain and front, with much
cooler temps than expected on Friday behind the front with rain.

A period of quieter wx is then expected for the weekend with NW flow
restored by Saturday morning and drier air moving in.  Temps will be
quick to rebound, after a cool Saturday, towards normal on Sunday as
surface winds turn from the south.

Southwest upper flow could occur already by Monday next week with
the normal accompanying rain chances, but some model disagreement on
timing here so went conservative with PoPs and leaned towards climo
values.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

VFR flight conditions will prevail through Tuesday. Prevailing
southwest flow will turn to the west and then north-northwest on
Tuesday morning as a weak cold front moves through the area.
Marginal low level wind shear conditions are possible overnight
tonight, but have opted not to mention in the TAFs at this time as
model guidance sometimes overestimates low level winds.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions will prevail through Tuesday. Prevailing
southwest flow will turn to the west overnight and then north-
northwest as a weak cold front passes through the terminal around
13-14Z. Marginal low level wind shear conditions are possible
overnight tonight, but have opted not to mention in the KSTL TAF
at this time as model guidance sometimes overestimates low level
winds.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 302050
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
350 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

South to southwest flow will prevail tonight ahead of a weak cold
front which will move through Tuesday.  Dry atmosphere will provide
a mostly clear sky...with perhaps a few cirrus clouds.  Temperatures
look to stay near or just above climatological normals due to the
warm southwest winds.  Used a blend of guidance for lows, but leaned
toward some of the warmer members of the ensemble.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

The forecast over this period can be broken down into three
segments, all primarily based off the upper flow pattern.

Through Tuesday night, a northwest flow will prevail over our
region, delivering quiet wx, thanks to dry air and little in the way
of any forcing mechanisms.  A weak cold front will move thru during
the day on Tuesday, but both the associated WAA ahead of it, and its
expected position when it might be able to gain some leverage from
the heating of the day for some surface based convection are not
favorable for any mention of pcpn at this time.  Have continued the
dry forecast from the previous package.

The air following the cold front will not be much different than the
one ahead of it, and so despite NW winds for much of Tuesday for
most areas, temps are expected to follow persistence or a bit above.

The upper flow will then back to the W-SW by late Wednesday and
continue into Friday night, signalling a more active wx pattern to
close the work week.  The old front from Tuesday will be buckling
northward as a warm front on Wednesday, but the timing looks to be a
bit slower than it did 24hrs ago.  Given the significant increase of
moisture thru the column that will accompany this warm front, its
delay will still mean worth a small PoP mention for the afternoon
and evening but over a more western area than 24hrs ago.

More significant forcing will move in late Wednesday night and
continue into Thursday evening as a stronger cold front than the one
on Tuesday drops down and will result in periods of showers and
thunderstorms.  Another shot of forcing, mostly frontogenetical and
post-frontal, will then move in on Friday providing mostly rain with
any thunder confined to southern MO and IL.

A warm day is expected for Wednesday, and potentially into Thursday
depending on the exact timing of the rain and front, with much
cooler temps than expected on Friday behind the front with rain.

A period of quieter wx is then expected for the weekend with NW flow
restored by Saturday morning and drier air moving in.  Temps will be
quick to rebound, after a cool Saturday, towards normal on Sunday as
surface winds turn from the south.

Southwest upper flow could occur already by Monday next week with
the normal accompanying rain chances, but some model disagreement on
timing here so went conservative with PoPs and leaned towards climo
values.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

VFR flight conditions will prevail through Tuesday. Prevailing
southwest flow will turn to the west and then north-northwest on
Tuesday morning as a weak cold front moves through the area.
Marginal low level wind shear conditions are possible overnight
tonight, but have opted not to mention in the TAFs at this time as
model guidance sometimes overestimates low level winds.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions will prevail through Tuesday. Prevailing
southwest flow will turn to the west overnight and then north-
northwest as a weak cold front passes through the terminal around
13-14Z. Marginal low level wind shear conditions are possible
overnight tonight, but have opted not to mention in the KSTL TAF
at this time as model guidance sometimes overestimates low level
winds.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KEAX 302021
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
321 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Tonight into Tuesday: Fire weather concerns will continue through
the remainder of the afternoon, especially over northwest Missouri
into northeast Kansas where relative humidity values have fallen to
near 20 percent and southwest winds have been breezy. Otherwise,
surface high pressure moves across the area tonight into Tuesday.
Dry weather will continue through Tuesday night. As for
temperatures, warmer overnight lows are expected tonight with
readings in the 40s. Highs on Tuesday afternoon will be slightly
warmer in some areas, with all locations in the 70s.

Wednesday/Thursday: Much of Wednesday looks dry as the overall
system has slightly slowed. The main exception may be a few
scattered showers or thunderstorms during the day as a warm front
lifts north through the forecast area. The best chance for this
isolated activity will be over central Missouri. Otherwise, expect a
warm day with highs in the middle to upper 70s, with perhaps a few
80-degree locations. Moisture will also steadily increase with the
warm sector returning, with dewpoints well into the 50s.
Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the afternoon
hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This convection will
develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually reaching the
northwest portions of the forecast area after sunset Wednesday. The
overall severe weather threat appears marginal, with the highest
probability of strong to isolated severe storms over far northwest
Missouri. The primary limiting factor will be the timing of
convection reaching the CWA, where the loss of stronger diurnal
instability will be lost, as well as the anticipated linear
evolution of the convection and gradual undercut from the
thunderstorm cold pools. While storms may undergo a weakening trend,
there remains the potential for a few severe wind gusts in the most
robust activity. The best chance for precipitation will occur
Wednesday night through Thursday morning with the passage of the
front. Total precipitation amounts with this first round of
thunderstorms will average one-half inch, with higher amounts in the
more robust thunderstorm activity.

Rain will eventually push south of much of the forecast area during
the day Thursday as the surface front stalls just south of the CWA,
which is further north than previous thinking. Of course, the
frontal position will also likely be dependent on Wed night
convection. If in fact the front remains south of the CWA on
Thursday during peak heating, the primary severe weather threat on
Thursday will remain south of the forecast area. Slightly cooler air
will filter into the area during the day Thursday, with highs in the
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A few lingering showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will
continue to be possible Thursday night into early Friday morning as
the slow-moving frontal boundary pushes southward, then rainfall
should begin clearing out of the area during the daytime hours
Friday. Cooler temperatures are expected Friday and especially
Friday night as the front clears out of the region, and there`s a
potential for patchy frost throughout the forecast area Saturday
morning as a surface high builds into the region and cooler air
sinks into the eastern Plains.

More seasonable temperatures will return for Saturday and Sunday as
southerly flow returns on the back side of the surface high and
ridging builds across the High Plains, allowing highs to return into
the 60s to lower 70s by early next week. Another round of showers
and storms is possible by the end of the forecast period Monday
afternoon and evening, but have kept PoPs fairly low to account for
uncertainty in the setup.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR through the period. Breezy afternoon winds will relax around
sunset and eventually become variable as surface high pressure moves
through the area.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-102.

MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>005-
     011>013-020.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 302021
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
321 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Tonight into Tuesday: Fire weather concerns will continue through
the remainder of the afternoon, especially over northwest Missouri
into northeast Kansas where relative humidity values have fallen to
near 20 percent and southwest winds have been breezy. Otherwise,
surface high pressure moves across the area tonight into Tuesday.
Dry weather will continue through Tuesday night. As for
temperatures, warmer overnight lows are expected tonight with
readings in the 40s. Highs on Tuesday afternoon will be slightly
warmer in some areas, with all locations in the 70s.

Wednesday/Thursday: Much of Wednesday looks dry as the overall
system has slightly slowed. The main exception may be a few
scattered showers or thunderstorms during the day as a warm front
lifts north through the forecast area. The best chance for this
isolated activity will be over central Missouri. Otherwise, expect a
warm day with highs in the middle to upper 70s, with perhaps a few
80-degree locations. Moisture will also steadily increase with the
warm sector returning, with dewpoints well into the 50s.
Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the afternoon
hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This convection will
develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually reaching the
northwest portions of the forecast area after sunset Wednesday. The
overall severe weather threat appears marginal, with the highest
probability of strong to isolated severe storms over far northwest
Missouri. The primary limiting factor will be the timing of
convection reaching the CWA, where the loss of stronger diurnal
instability will be lost, as well as the anticipated linear
evolution of the convection and gradual undercut from the
thunderstorm cold pools. While storms may undergo a weakening trend,
there remains the potential for a few severe wind gusts in the most
robust activity. The best chance for precipitation will occur
Wednesday night through Thursday morning with the passage of the
front. Total precipitation amounts with this first round of
thunderstorms will average one-half inch, with higher amounts in the
more robust thunderstorm activity.

Rain will eventually push south of much of the forecast area during
the day Thursday as the surface front stalls just south of the CWA,
which is further north than previous thinking. Of course, the
frontal position will also likely be dependent on Wed night
convection. If in fact the front remains south of the CWA on
Thursday during peak heating, the primary severe weather threat on
Thursday will remain south of the forecast area. Slightly cooler air
will filter into the area during the day Thursday, with highs in the
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A few lingering showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will
continue to be possible Thursday night into early Friday morning as
the slow-moving frontal boundary pushes southward, then rainfall
should begin clearing out of the area during the daytime hours
Friday. Cooler temperatures are expected Friday and especially
Friday night as the front clears out of the region, and there`s a
potential for patchy frost throughout the forecast area Saturday
morning as a surface high builds into the region and cooler air
sinks into the eastern Plains.

More seasonable temperatures will return for Saturday and Sunday as
southerly flow returns on the back side of the surface high and
ridging builds across the High Plains, allowing highs to return into
the 60s to lower 70s by early next week. Another round of showers
and storms is possible by the end of the forecast period Monday
afternoon and evening, but have kept PoPs fairly low to account for
uncertainty in the setup.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR through the period. Breezy afternoon winds will relax around
sunset and eventually become variable as surface high pressure moves
through the area.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-102.

MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>005-
     011>013-020.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 302021
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
321 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Tonight into Tuesday: Fire weather concerns will continue through
the remainder of the afternoon, especially over northwest Missouri
into northeast Kansas where relative humidity values have fallen to
near 20 percent and southwest winds have been breezy. Otherwise,
surface high pressure moves across the area tonight into Tuesday.
Dry weather will continue through Tuesday night. As for
temperatures, warmer overnight lows are expected tonight with
readings in the 40s. Highs on Tuesday afternoon will be slightly
warmer in some areas, with all locations in the 70s.

Wednesday/Thursday: Much of Wednesday looks dry as the overall
system has slightly slowed. The main exception may be a few
scattered showers or thunderstorms during the day as a warm front
lifts north through the forecast area. The best chance for this
isolated activity will be over central Missouri. Otherwise, expect a
warm day with highs in the middle to upper 70s, with perhaps a few
80-degree locations. Moisture will also steadily increase with the
warm sector returning, with dewpoints well into the 50s.
Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the afternoon
hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This convection will
develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually reaching the
northwest portions of the forecast area after sunset Wednesday. The
overall severe weather threat appears marginal, with the highest
probability of strong to isolated severe storms over far northwest
Missouri. The primary limiting factor will be the timing of
convection reaching the CWA, where the loss of stronger diurnal
instability will be lost, as well as the anticipated linear
evolution of the convection and gradual undercut from the
thunderstorm cold pools. While storms may undergo a weakening trend,
there remains the potential for a few severe wind gusts in the most
robust activity. The best chance for precipitation will occur
Wednesday night through Thursday morning with the passage of the
front. Total precipitation amounts with this first round of
thunderstorms will average one-half inch, with higher amounts in the
more robust thunderstorm activity.

Rain will eventually push south of much of the forecast area during
the day Thursday as the surface front stalls just south of the CWA,
which is further north than previous thinking. Of course, the
frontal position will also likely be dependent on Wed night
convection. If in fact the front remains south of the CWA on
Thursday during peak heating, the primary severe weather threat on
Thursday will remain south of the forecast area. Slightly cooler air
will filter into the area during the day Thursday, with highs in the
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A few lingering showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will
continue to be possible Thursday night into early Friday morning as
the slow-moving frontal boundary pushes southward, then rainfall
should begin clearing out of the area during the daytime hours
Friday. Cooler temperatures are expected Friday and especially
Friday night as the front clears out of the region, and there`s a
potential for patchy frost throughout the forecast area Saturday
morning as a surface high builds into the region and cooler air
sinks into the eastern Plains.

More seasonable temperatures will return for Saturday and Sunday as
southerly flow returns on the back side of the surface high and
ridging builds across the High Plains, allowing highs to return into
the 60s to lower 70s by early next week. Another round of showers
and storms is possible by the end of the forecast period Monday
afternoon and evening, but have kept PoPs fairly low to account for
uncertainty in the setup.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR through the period. Breezy afternoon winds will relax around
sunset and eventually become variable as surface high pressure moves
through the area.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-102.

MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>005-
     011>013-020.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Blair






000
FXUS63 KSGF 302012
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
312 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will make its way
eastward during the overnight hours. This will bring the winds
back around to the south and allow Gulf moisture to begin making
its way northward. This will allow the stalled front over the
southern plains to begin advancing northeastward as a warm front.

Temperatures will make it into the 70s region wide on Tuesday with
a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms developing during the
afternoon across extreme southern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging will be underway Tuesday night as the
southerly winds continue to bring warm and moist air into the
region.

Wednesday will see temperatures climb into the middle 70s to
around 80 degrees across the Ozarks as a slow moving cold front
makes its way across the plains.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to impact the region
Wednesday afternoon as the front makes slow progress to the east.
Instability in advance of the front will be in the 800-1600 j/kg
range which will be enough to allow some strong storms to
develop.

The models all seem to hang the front up across the region from
Thursday night through Friday afternoon as a surface low moves
northeast across the southern plains and through the region. This
may bring a prolonged period of rainfall and thunderstorms. Will
need to watch the potential for some flooding with this system as
well.

High pressure will then build into the region behind the front.
The high looks as though it will move of the Pacific instead of
diving out of Canada. This should keep temperatures from being too
cool, though Saturday morning lows may fall into the middle 30s
across portions of the Ozarks.

Another storm system will move towards the region early next week
though models are handling the timing and coverage of rain
differently.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure over Arkansas will continue eastward with VFR
conditions expected through the forecast period. Winds gradually
veering to a more southerly direction this afternoon and tonight
and southwesterly on Tuesday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Gaede










000
FXUS63 KSGF 302012
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
312 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will make its way
eastward during the overnight hours. This will bring the winds
back around to the south and allow Gulf moisture to begin making
its way northward. This will allow the stalled front over the
southern plains to begin advancing northeastward as a warm front.

Temperatures will make it into the 70s region wide on Tuesday with
a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms developing during the
afternoon across extreme southern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging will be underway Tuesday night as the
southerly winds continue to bring warm and moist air into the
region.

Wednesday will see temperatures climb into the middle 70s to
around 80 degrees across the Ozarks as a slow moving cold front
makes its way across the plains.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to impact the region
Wednesday afternoon as the front makes slow progress to the east.
Instability in advance of the front will be in the 800-1600 j/kg
range which will be enough to allow some strong storms to
develop.

The models all seem to hang the front up across the region from
Thursday night through Friday afternoon as a surface low moves
northeast across the southern plains and through the region. This
may bring a prolonged period of rainfall and thunderstorms. Will
need to watch the potential for some flooding with this system as
well.

High pressure will then build into the region behind the front.
The high looks as though it will move of the Pacific instead of
diving out of Canada. This should keep temperatures from being too
cool, though Saturday morning lows may fall into the middle 30s
across portions of the Ozarks.

Another storm system will move towards the region early next week
though models are handling the timing and coverage of rain
differently.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure over Arkansas will continue eastward with VFR
conditions expected through the forecast period. Winds gradually
veering to a more southerly direction this afternoon and tonight
and southwesterly on Tuesday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Gaede











000
FXUS63 KSGF 302012
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
312 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will make its way
eastward during the overnight hours. This will bring the winds
back around to the south and allow Gulf moisture to begin making
its way northward. This will allow the stalled front over the
southern plains to begin advancing northeastward as a warm front.

Temperatures will make it into the 70s region wide on Tuesday with
a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms developing during the
afternoon across extreme southern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging will be underway Tuesday night as the
southerly winds continue to bring warm and moist air into the
region.

Wednesday will see temperatures climb into the middle 70s to
around 80 degrees across the Ozarks as a slow moving cold front
makes its way across the plains.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to impact the region
Wednesday afternoon as the front makes slow progress to the east.
Instability in advance of the front will be in the 800-1600 j/kg
range which will be enough to allow some strong storms to
develop.

The models all seem to hang the front up across the region from
Thursday night through Friday afternoon as a surface low moves
northeast across the southern plains and through the region. This
may bring a prolonged period of rainfall and thunderstorms. Will
need to watch the potential for some flooding with this system as
well.

High pressure will then build into the region behind the front.
The high looks as though it will move of the Pacific instead of
diving out of Canada. This should keep temperatures from being too
cool, though Saturday morning lows may fall into the middle 30s
across portions of the Ozarks.

Another storm system will move towards the region early next week
though models are handling the timing and coverage of rain
differently.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure over Arkansas will continue eastward with VFR
conditions expected through the forecast period. Winds gradually
veering to a more southerly direction this afternoon and tonight
and southwesterly on Tuesday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Gaede










000
FXUS63 KSGF 302012
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
312 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will make its way
eastward during the overnight hours. This will bring the winds
back around to the south and allow Gulf moisture to begin making
its way northward. This will allow the stalled front over the
southern plains to begin advancing northeastward as a warm front.

Temperatures will make it into the 70s region wide on Tuesday with
a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms developing during the
afternoon across extreme southern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging will be underway Tuesday night as the
southerly winds continue to bring warm and moist air into the
region.

Wednesday will see temperatures climb into the middle 70s to
around 80 degrees across the Ozarks as a slow moving cold front
makes its way across the plains.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to impact the region
Wednesday afternoon as the front makes slow progress to the east.
Instability in advance of the front will be in the 800-1600 j/kg
range which will be enough to allow some strong storms to
develop.

The models all seem to hang the front up across the region from
Thursday night through Friday afternoon as a surface low moves
northeast across the southern plains and through the region. This
may bring a prolonged period of rainfall and thunderstorms. Will
need to watch the potential for some flooding with this system as
well.

High pressure will then build into the region behind the front.
The high looks as though it will move of the Pacific instead of
diving out of Canada. This should keep temperatures from being too
cool, though Saturday morning lows may fall into the middle 30s
across portions of the Ozarks.

Another storm system will move towards the region early next week
though models are handling the timing and coverage of rain
differently.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure over Arkansas will continue eastward with VFR
conditions expected through the forecast period. Winds gradually
veering to a more southerly direction this afternoon and tonight
and southwesterly on Tuesday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Gaede











000
FXUS63 KLSX 301804
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
104 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

NW flow in place into Tue with upper lvl ridging beginning to
build in by Tuesday night. Weak short wave embedded in the NW flow
fcst to pass well NE of the FA Mon night into Tue. SFC ridge will
pass from the mid-MS vly into the TN vly today allowing winds to
become SW by this evng which will make a warmer night. An area of
low pressure assoc with the aforementioned short wave will drag a
weak cold front thru the CWA Tue. Should be an AM FROPA across the
nthrn CWA tempering the temp rise somewhat with NW winds and weak
CAA drng the aftn....though temps should still warm above avg with
highs near 70. South of I70...a good deal of sunshine and a longer
prd of SW winds should allow temps to rise well into the 70s.
Previous system from Sun has scoured out most of the available
moisture. Moisture return should be negligible due to limited
duration of return flow and sfc ridge across the Deep South
effectively closing the Gulf for business...so FROPA should be
dry. Removed slight chance PoPs across the far sthrn portion of
the CWA for Tue PM. Moisture appears to be limited and quite
shallow. Also...front settles along the AR/MO border which is
where there is marginally better moisture and hence any SHRA
activity should reside. SFC ridge builds into the Grt Lks Tue
night...sliding into the the OH vly by Wed.

2%

.LONG TERM: (Wednesday thru Sunday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Upper lvl ridge axis passes Wed. A decent short wave tracks
across the nthrn CONUS Wed night/Thu with a general weakness in
the H500 heights extending SW into another short wave coming
onshore across CA Wed night. These two features will combine to
produce a prd of wet weather for the region.

Sfc ridge axis passes Wed mrng allowing return flow to begin by Wed
aftn. The first short wave will lift an area of low pressure from
the Dakotas into sthrn Canada Wed mrng into Wed evng. This will push
a cold front into the Midwest Wed aftn. Winds should strengthen and
become gusty by aftn as the pressure gradient increases in advance
of the cold front. The front will slowly slide SE Wed night and Thu.
The GFS is faster with the initial push of the bndry bringing it into
the nthrn FA Wed night while the ECMWF waits until Thu. This time
the Gulf will be open for business allowing sufficient moisture for
the system to work with with. Precip chances begin as early as Wed
aftn...mainly across MO with better chances across NE MO after
midnight Wed night. Precip chances increase from NW to SE on Thu as
the front sags south. The bndry is fcst to stall along or just north
of the AR/MO border Thu night as an area of low pressure dvlps
across the sthrn Pains Thu night in response to the second short
wave. The bndry is fcst to remain nearly stnry thru Fri until the
low passes Fri PM as it rides NE along the front into the OH vly by
Fri night keeping precip chances going for areas mainly along and
south of I70. Nthrn portions of the FA may only have one shot at
precip with FROPA with the main area of precip remaining along and
south of I70 Thu night thru Fri night. Stay tuned though as the
eventual position of where the bndry stalls will determine nthrn
extent of the precip.

Saturday through Sunday

High pressure builds into the cntrl CONUS for the wknd producing dry
conditions and seasonal temps.

2%

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

VFR flight conditions will prevail through Tuesday. Prevailing
southwest flow will turn to the west and then north-northwest on
Tuesday morning as a weak cold front moves through the area.
Marginal low level wind shear conditions are possible overnight
tonight, but have opted not to mention in the TAFs at this time as
model guidance sometimes overestimates low level winds.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions will prevail through Tuesday. Prevailing
southwest flow will turn to the west overnight and then north-
northwest as a weak cold front passes through the terminal around
13-14Z. Marginal low level wind shear conditions are possible
overnight tonight, but have opted not to mention in the KSTL TAF
at this time as model guidance sometimes overestimates low level
winds.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 301804
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
104 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

NW flow in place into Tue with upper lvl ridging beginning to
build in by Tuesday night. Weak short wave embedded in the NW flow
fcst to pass well NE of the FA Mon night into Tue. SFC ridge will
pass from the mid-MS vly into the TN vly today allowing winds to
become SW by this evng which will make a warmer night. An area of
low pressure assoc with the aforementioned short wave will drag a
weak cold front thru the CWA Tue. Should be an AM FROPA across the
nthrn CWA tempering the temp rise somewhat with NW winds and weak
CAA drng the aftn....though temps should still warm above avg with
highs near 70. South of I70...a good deal of sunshine and a longer
prd of SW winds should allow temps to rise well into the 70s.
Previous system from Sun has scoured out most of the available
moisture. Moisture return should be negligible due to limited
duration of return flow and sfc ridge across the Deep South
effectively closing the Gulf for business...so FROPA should be
dry. Removed slight chance PoPs across the far sthrn portion of
the CWA for Tue PM. Moisture appears to be limited and quite
shallow. Also...front settles along the AR/MO border which is
where there is marginally better moisture and hence any SHRA
activity should reside. SFC ridge builds into the Grt Lks Tue
night...sliding into the the OH vly by Wed.

2%

.LONG TERM: (Wednesday thru Sunday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Upper lvl ridge axis passes Wed. A decent short wave tracks
across the nthrn CONUS Wed night/Thu with a general weakness in
the H500 heights extending SW into another short wave coming
onshore across CA Wed night. These two features will combine to
produce a prd of wet weather for the region.

Sfc ridge axis passes Wed mrng allowing return flow to begin by Wed
aftn. The first short wave will lift an area of low pressure from
the Dakotas into sthrn Canada Wed mrng into Wed evng. This will push
a cold front into the Midwest Wed aftn. Winds should strengthen and
become gusty by aftn as the pressure gradient increases in advance
of the cold front. The front will slowly slide SE Wed night and Thu.
The GFS is faster with the initial push of the bndry bringing it into
the nthrn FA Wed night while the ECMWF waits until Thu. This time
the Gulf will be open for business allowing sufficient moisture for
the system to work with with. Precip chances begin as early as Wed
aftn...mainly across MO with better chances across NE MO after
midnight Wed night. Precip chances increase from NW to SE on Thu as
the front sags south. The bndry is fcst to stall along or just north
of the AR/MO border Thu night as an area of low pressure dvlps
across the sthrn Pains Thu night in response to the second short
wave. The bndry is fcst to remain nearly stnry thru Fri until the
low passes Fri PM as it rides NE along the front into the OH vly by
Fri night keeping precip chances going for areas mainly along and
south of I70. Nthrn portions of the FA may only have one shot at
precip with FROPA with the main area of precip remaining along and
south of I70 Thu night thru Fri night. Stay tuned though as the
eventual position of where the bndry stalls will determine nthrn
extent of the precip.

Saturday through Sunday

High pressure builds into the cntrl CONUS for the wknd producing dry
conditions and seasonal temps.

2%

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

VFR flight conditions will prevail through Tuesday. Prevailing
southwest flow will turn to the west and then north-northwest on
Tuesday morning as a weak cold front moves through the area.
Marginal low level wind shear conditions are possible overnight
tonight, but have opted not to mention in the TAFs at this time as
model guidance sometimes overestimates low level winds.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions will prevail through Tuesday. Prevailing
southwest flow will turn to the west overnight and then north-
northwest as a weak cold front passes through the terminal around
13-14Z. Marginal low level wind shear conditions are possible
overnight tonight, but have opted not to mention in the KSTL TAF
at this time as model guidance sometimes overestimates low level
winds.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 301804
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
104 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

NW flow in place into Tue with upper lvl ridging beginning to
build in by Tuesday night. Weak short wave embedded in the NW flow
fcst to pass well NE of the FA Mon night into Tue. SFC ridge will
pass from the mid-MS vly into the TN vly today allowing winds to
become SW by this evng which will make a warmer night. An area of
low pressure assoc with the aforementioned short wave will drag a
weak cold front thru the CWA Tue. Should be an AM FROPA across the
nthrn CWA tempering the temp rise somewhat with NW winds and weak
CAA drng the aftn....though temps should still warm above avg with
highs near 70. South of I70...a good deal of sunshine and a longer
prd of SW winds should allow temps to rise well into the 70s.
Previous system from Sun has scoured out most of the available
moisture. Moisture return should be negligible due to limited
duration of return flow and sfc ridge across the Deep South
effectively closing the Gulf for business...so FROPA should be
dry. Removed slight chance PoPs across the far sthrn portion of
the CWA for Tue PM. Moisture appears to be limited and quite
shallow. Also...front settles along the AR/MO border which is
where there is marginally better moisture and hence any SHRA
activity should reside. SFC ridge builds into the Grt Lks Tue
night...sliding into the the OH vly by Wed.

2%

.LONG TERM: (Wednesday thru Sunday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Upper lvl ridge axis passes Wed. A decent short wave tracks
across the nthrn CONUS Wed night/Thu with a general weakness in
the H500 heights extending SW into another short wave coming
onshore across CA Wed night. These two features will combine to
produce a prd of wet weather for the region.

Sfc ridge axis passes Wed mrng allowing return flow to begin by Wed
aftn. The first short wave will lift an area of low pressure from
the Dakotas into sthrn Canada Wed mrng into Wed evng. This will push
a cold front into the Midwest Wed aftn. Winds should strengthen and
become gusty by aftn as the pressure gradient increases in advance
of the cold front. The front will slowly slide SE Wed night and Thu.
The GFS is faster with the initial push of the bndry bringing it into
the nthrn FA Wed night while the ECMWF waits until Thu. This time
the Gulf will be open for business allowing sufficient moisture for
the system to work with with. Precip chances begin as early as Wed
aftn...mainly across MO with better chances across NE MO after
midnight Wed night. Precip chances increase from NW to SE on Thu as
the front sags south. The bndry is fcst to stall along or just north
of the AR/MO border Thu night as an area of low pressure dvlps
across the sthrn Pains Thu night in response to the second short
wave. The bndry is fcst to remain nearly stnry thru Fri until the
low passes Fri PM as it rides NE along the front into the OH vly by
Fri night keeping precip chances going for areas mainly along and
south of I70. Nthrn portions of the FA may only have one shot at
precip with FROPA with the main area of precip remaining along and
south of I70 Thu night thru Fri night. Stay tuned though as the
eventual position of where the bndry stalls will determine nthrn
extent of the precip.

Saturday through Sunday

High pressure builds into the cntrl CONUS for the wknd producing dry
conditions and seasonal temps.

2%

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

VFR flight conditions will prevail through Tuesday. Prevailing
southwest flow will turn to the west and then north-northwest on
Tuesday morning as a weak cold front moves through the area.
Marginal low level wind shear conditions are possible overnight
tonight, but have opted not to mention in the TAFs at this time as
model guidance sometimes overestimates low level winds.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions will prevail through Tuesday. Prevailing
southwest flow will turn to the west overnight and then north-
northwest as a weak cold front passes through the terminal around
13-14Z. Marginal low level wind shear conditions are possible
overnight tonight, but have opted not to mention in the KSTL TAF
at this time as model guidance sometimes overestimates low level
winds.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 301804
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
104 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

NW flow in place into Tue with upper lvl ridging beginning to
build in by Tuesday night. Weak short wave embedded in the NW flow
fcst to pass well NE of the FA Mon night into Tue. SFC ridge will
pass from the mid-MS vly into the TN vly today allowing winds to
become SW by this evng which will make a warmer night. An area of
low pressure assoc with the aforementioned short wave will drag a
weak cold front thru the CWA Tue. Should be an AM FROPA across the
nthrn CWA tempering the temp rise somewhat with NW winds and weak
CAA drng the aftn....though temps should still warm above avg with
highs near 70. South of I70...a good deal of sunshine and a longer
prd of SW winds should allow temps to rise well into the 70s.
Previous system from Sun has scoured out most of the available
moisture. Moisture return should be negligible due to limited
duration of return flow and sfc ridge across the Deep South
effectively closing the Gulf for business...so FROPA should be
dry. Removed slight chance PoPs across the far sthrn portion of
the CWA for Tue PM. Moisture appears to be limited and quite
shallow. Also...front settles along the AR/MO border which is
where there is marginally better moisture and hence any SHRA
activity should reside. SFC ridge builds into the Grt Lks Tue
night...sliding into the the OH vly by Wed.

2%

.LONG TERM: (Wednesday thru Sunday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Upper lvl ridge axis passes Wed. A decent short wave tracks
across the nthrn CONUS Wed night/Thu with a general weakness in
the H500 heights extending SW into another short wave coming
onshore across CA Wed night. These two features will combine to
produce a prd of wet weather for the region.

Sfc ridge axis passes Wed mrng allowing return flow to begin by Wed
aftn. The first short wave will lift an area of low pressure from
the Dakotas into sthrn Canada Wed mrng into Wed evng. This will push
a cold front into the Midwest Wed aftn. Winds should strengthen and
become gusty by aftn as the pressure gradient increases in advance
of the cold front. The front will slowly slide SE Wed night and Thu.
The GFS is faster with the initial push of the bndry bringing it into
the nthrn FA Wed night while the ECMWF waits until Thu. This time
the Gulf will be open for business allowing sufficient moisture for
the system to work with with. Precip chances begin as early as Wed
aftn...mainly across MO with better chances across NE MO after
midnight Wed night. Precip chances increase from NW to SE on Thu as
the front sags south. The bndry is fcst to stall along or just north
of the AR/MO border Thu night as an area of low pressure dvlps
across the sthrn Pains Thu night in response to the second short
wave. The bndry is fcst to remain nearly stnry thru Fri until the
low passes Fri PM as it rides NE along the front into the OH vly by
Fri night keeping precip chances going for areas mainly along and
south of I70. Nthrn portions of the FA may only have one shot at
precip with FROPA with the main area of precip remaining along and
south of I70 Thu night thru Fri night. Stay tuned though as the
eventual position of where the bndry stalls will determine nthrn
extent of the precip.

Saturday through Sunday

High pressure builds into the cntrl CONUS for the wknd producing dry
conditions and seasonal temps.

2%

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

VFR flight conditions will prevail through Tuesday. Prevailing
southwest flow will turn to the west and then north-northwest on
Tuesday morning as a weak cold front moves through the area.
Marginal low level wind shear conditions are possible overnight
tonight, but have opted not to mention in the TAFs at this time as
model guidance sometimes overestimates low level winds.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions will prevail through Tuesday. Prevailing
southwest flow will turn to the west overnight and then north-
northwest as a weak cold front passes through the terminal around
13-14Z. Marginal low level wind shear conditions are possible
overnight tonight, but have opted not to mention in the KSTL TAF
at this time as model guidance sometimes overestimates low level
winds.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 301729
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1229 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A surface high is currently over southeastern Kansas this morning
and moving to the southeast. Skies were clear and temperatures
were seasonably cool this morning in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
A light southerly breeze will return today under sunny skies which
will help boost temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A
gorgeous day is in the forecast today followed by a pleasant night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging and height rises mean warmer temperatures for
Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak wind shift boundary may move through
on Tuesday with a few more clouds around but no precip is expected
or remain to our south. Temperatures will be in the middle to
upper 70s on Tuesday and maybe reaching near 80 by Wednesday.

The models are in good agreement with the next storm system
and have slowed it down somewhat beginning to affect the area very
late Wednesday night into Thursday. It appears the front may slow
down or briefly stall on Thursday and Thursday night across the
area as a wave of low pressure develops along it. There will be
a good chance of thunderstorms and some could be on the strong
side. SPC has most of the area highlighted in a slight risk for
severe weather on Thursday. Will keep an eye on
trends...atmospheric ingredients...and timing for some severe weather
around the Thursday time frame.

We could see a couple rounds of thunderstorms Thursday into early
Friday before this system finally kicks out of the area late
Friday. Cooler and drier weather return behind the front for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure over Arkansas will continue eastward with VFR
conditions expected through the forecast period. Winds gradually
veering to a more southerly direction this afternoon and tonight
and southwesterly on Tuesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gaede






000
FXUS63 KSGF 301729
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1229 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A surface high is currently over southeastern Kansas this morning
and moving to the southeast. Skies were clear and temperatures
were seasonably cool this morning in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
A light southerly breeze will return today under sunny skies which
will help boost temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A
gorgeous day is in the forecast today followed by a pleasant night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging and height rises mean warmer temperatures for
Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak wind shift boundary may move through
on Tuesday with a few more clouds around but no precip is expected
or remain to our south. Temperatures will be in the middle to
upper 70s on Tuesday and maybe reaching near 80 by Wednesday.

The models are in good agreement with the next storm system
and have slowed it down somewhat beginning to affect the area very
late Wednesday night into Thursday. It appears the front may slow
down or briefly stall on Thursday and Thursday night across the
area as a wave of low pressure develops along it. There will be
a good chance of thunderstorms and some could be on the strong
side. SPC has most of the area highlighted in a slight risk for
severe weather on Thursday. Will keep an eye on
trends...atmospheric ingredients...and timing for some severe weather
around the Thursday time frame.

We could see a couple rounds of thunderstorms Thursday into early
Friday before this system finally kicks out of the area late
Friday. Cooler and drier weather return behind the front for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure over Arkansas will continue eastward with VFR
conditions expected through the forecast period. Winds gradually
veering to a more southerly direction this afternoon and tonight
and southwesterly on Tuesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gaede







000
FXUS63 KSGF 301729
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1229 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A surface high is currently over southeastern Kansas this morning
and moving to the southeast. Skies were clear and temperatures
were seasonably cool this morning in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
A light southerly breeze will return today under sunny skies which
will help boost temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A
gorgeous day is in the forecast today followed by a pleasant night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging and height rises mean warmer temperatures for
Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak wind shift boundary may move through
on Tuesday with a few more clouds around but no precip is expected
or remain to our south. Temperatures will be in the middle to
upper 70s on Tuesday and maybe reaching near 80 by Wednesday.

The models are in good agreement with the next storm system
and have slowed it down somewhat beginning to affect the area very
late Wednesday night into Thursday. It appears the front may slow
down or briefly stall on Thursday and Thursday night across the
area as a wave of low pressure develops along it. There will be
a good chance of thunderstorms and some could be on the strong
side. SPC has most of the area highlighted in a slight risk for
severe weather on Thursday. Will keep an eye on
trends...atmospheric ingredients...and timing for some severe weather
around the Thursday time frame.

We could see a couple rounds of thunderstorms Thursday into early
Friday before this system finally kicks out of the area late
Friday. Cooler and drier weather return behind the front for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure over Arkansas will continue eastward with VFR
conditions expected through the forecast period. Winds gradually
veering to a more southerly direction this afternoon and tonight
and southwesterly on Tuesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gaede






000
FXUS63 KEAX 301709
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1209 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Highly anticipated warmup to get underway today as high pressure
tracks into the Tenn Rvr Vly and southerly flow returns ahead of
next area of low pressure moving into the upper Midwest. With plenty
of sunshine and a downslope wind component...high temps this
afternoon will warm well into the upper 60s to lower 70s. The only
concern going forward will be the risk for elevated fire wx concerns
as modest boundary layer mixing combines with low relative humidity
once again. Current thinking suggest the areas most prone to "near
critical" conditions will be across far northwest Missouri and
northeastern Kansas where sustained winds in excess of 15 mph with
higher gusts will be possible later this afternoon. For now...will
advertise concerns in both the HWO and a Fire Wx SPS statement as
conditions are expected to fall just short of red flag criteria.

Beyond today...dry and moderating conditions expected right through
midweek with upper 70s/low 80s possible by Wed ahead of main cold
front still forecast to pass late Wed/early Thurs. Main concerns
associated with this feature continue to be possible severe weather
as front barrels through the area during the overnight period.
Inspection of several short term model solutions continue to suggest
front will possess anafront characteristics with main body of
precipitation expected to fall behind the front. Under these
scenarios...severe weather is normally less likely as best
instability remains ahead of the main frontal boundary. In any event
...low-level jet expected to increase during the overnight period
which could create a region of elevated instability above main
frontal zone. If this sets up as forecast...developing storms Wed
night may be able to generate some hail as elevated instability is
tapped. Overall damaging wind threat looks marginal based on stable
boundary layer conditions expected following fropa. Meanwhile with an
uninterrupted moisture supply from the Gulf...have increased pops to
high likely/categorical late Wed night/early Thu.

Cooler airmass to to settle into the region on Thursday as frontal
boundary stalls to our south. Another disturbance is forecast to track
along this feature Thurs ngt/early Fri which may lead to period of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall just south of the CWA early Fri.
Will have to keep an eye on frontal position with later model runs as
a northward shift could lead to potentially heavy rainfall further
north towards our region. Rain likely to come to an end later Fri as
main storm system tracks off to the east. This should lead to a
mostly dry but seasonable weekend with temps warming into to the
lower to middle 60s both Sat and Sun.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR through the period. Breezy afternoon winds will relax around
sunset and eventually become variable as surface high pressure moves
through the area.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-102.

MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>005-
     011>013-020.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Blair






000
FXUS63 KEAX 301709
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1209 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Highly anticipated warmup to get underway today as high pressure
tracks into the Tenn Rvr Vly and southerly flow returns ahead of
next area of low pressure moving into the upper Midwest. With plenty
of sunshine and a downslope wind component...high temps this
afternoon will warm well into the upper 60s to lower 70s. The only
concern going forward will be the risk for elevated fire wx concerns
as modest boundary layer mixing combines with low relative humidity
once again. Current thinking suggest the areas most prone to "near
critical" conditions will be across far northwest Missouri and
northeastern Kansas where sustained winds in excess of 15 mph with
higher gusts will be possible later this afternoon. For now...will
advertise concerns in both the HWO and a Fire Wx SPS statement as
conditions are expected to fall just short of red flag criteria.

Beyond today...dry and moderating conditions expected right through
midweek with upper 70s/low 80s possible by Wed ahead of main cold
front still forecast to pass late Wed/early Thurs. Main concerns
associated with this feature continue to be possible severe weather
as front barrels through the area during the overnight period.
Inspection of several short term model solutions continue to suggest
front will possess anafront characteristics with main body of
precipitation expected to fall behind the front. Under these
scenarios...severe weather is normally less likely as best
instability remains ahead of the main frontal boundary. In any event
...low-level jet expected to increase during the overnight period
which could create a region of elevated instability above main
frontal zone. If this sets up as forecast...developing storms Wed
night may be able to generate some hail as elevated instability is
tapped. Overall damaging wind threat looks marginal based on stable
boundary layer conditions expected following fropa. Meanwhile with an
uninterrupted moisture supply from the Gulf...have increased pops to
high likely/categorical late Wed night/early Thu.

Cooler airmass to to settle into the region on Thursday as frontal
boundary stalls to our south. Another disturbance is forecast to track
along this feature Thurs ngt/early Fri which may lead to period of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall just south of the CWA early Fri.
Will have to keep an eye on frontal position with later model runs as
a northward shift could lead to potentially heavy rainfall further
north towards our region. Rain likely to come to an end later Fri as
main storm system tracks off to the east. This should lead to a
mostly dry but seasonable weekend with temps warming into to the
lower to middle 60s both Sat and Sun.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR through the period. Breezy afternoon winds will relax around
sunset and eventually become variable as surface high pressure moves
through the area.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-102.

MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>005-
     011>013-020.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Blair






000
FXUS63 KEAX 301132
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
632 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Highly anticipated warmup to get underway today as high pressure
tracks into the Tenn Rvr Vly and southerly flow returns ahead of
next area of low pressure moving into the upper Midwest. With plenty
of sunshine and a downslope wind component...high temps this
afternoon will warm well into the upper 60s to lower 70s. The only
concern going forward will be the risk for elevated fire wx concerns
as modest boundary layer mixing combines with low relative humidity
once again. Current thinking suggest the areas most prone to "near
critical" conditions will be across far northwest Missouri and
northeastern Kansas where sustained winds in excess of 15 mph with
higher gusts will be possible later this afternoon. For now...will
advertise concerns in both the HWO and a Fire Wx SPS statement as
conditions are expected to fall just short of red flag criteria.

Beyond today...dry and moderating conditions expected right through
midweek with upper 70s/low 80s possible by Wed ahead of main cold
front still forecast to pass late Wed/early Thurs. Main concerns
associated with this feature continue to be possible severe weather
as front barrels through the area during the overnight period.
Inspection of several short term model solutions continue to suggest
front will possess anafront characteristics with main body of
precipitation expected to fall behind the front. Under these
scenarios...severe weather is normally less likely as best
instability remains ahead of the main frontal boundary. In any event
...low-level jet expected to increase during the overnight period
which could create a region of elevated instability above main
frontal zone. If this sets up as forecast...developing storms Wed
night may be able to generate some hail as elevated instability is
tapped. Overall damaging wind threat looks marginal based on stable
boundary layer conditions expected following fropa. Meanwhile with an
uninterrupted moisture supply from the Gulf...have increased pops to
high likely/categorical late Wed night/early Thu.

Cooler airmass to to settle into the region on Thursday as frontal
boundary stalls to our south. Another disturbance is forecast to track
along this feature Thurs ngt/early Fri which may lead to period of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall just south of the CWA early Fri.
Will have to keep an eye on frontal position with later model runs as
a northward shift could lead to potentially heavy rainfall further
north towards our region. Rain likely to come to an end later Fri as
main storm system tracks off to the east. This should lead to a
mostly dry but seasonable weekend with temps warming into to the
lower to middle 60s both Sat and Sun.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR conditions expected through the fcst cycle. Winds will increase
from the southwest with gusts up to 20 kts possible through the
afternoon. Overnight...a weak front will move through the area which
will allow winds to veer after the 6z time frame. Aside from some
high clouds early this morning...skies should remain mostly cloud
free.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32






000
FXUS63 KEAX 301132
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
632 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Highly anticipated warmup to get underway today as high pressure
tracks into the Tenn Rvr Vly and southerly flow returns ahead of
next area of low pressure moving into the upper Midwest. With plenty
of sunshine and a downslope wind component...high temps this
afternoon will warm well into the upper 60s to lower 70s. The only
concern going forward will be the risk for elevated fire wx concerns
as modest boundary layer mixing combines with low relative humidity
once again. Current thinking suggest the areas most prone to "near
critical" conditions will be across far northwest Missouri and
northeastern Kansas where sustained winds in excess of 15 mph with
higher gusts will be possible later this afternoon. For now...will
advertise concerns in both the HWO and a Fire Wx SPS statement as
conditions are expected to fall just short of red flag criteria.

Beyond today...dry and moderating conditions expected right through
midweek with upper 70s/low 80s possible by Wed ahead of main cold
front still forecast to pass late Wed/early Thurs. Main concerns
associated with this feature continue to be possible severe weather
as front barrels through the area during the overnight period.
Inspection of several short term model solutions continue to suggest
front will possess anafront characteristics with main body of
precipitation expected to fall behind the front. Under these
scenarios...severe weather is normally less likely as best
instability remains ahead of the main frontal boundary. In any event
...low-level jet expected to increase during the overnight period
which could create a region of elevated instability above main
frontal zone. If this sets up as forecast...developing storms Wed
night may be able to generate some hail as elevated instability is
tapped. Overall damaging wind threat looks marginal based on stable
boundary layer conditions expected following fropa. Meanwhile with an
uninterrupted moisture supply from the Gulf...have increased pops to
high likely/categorical late Wed night/early Thu.

Cooler airmass to to settle into the region on Thursday as frontal
boundary stalls to our south. Another disturbance is forecast to track
along this feature Thurs ngt/early Fri which may lead to period of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall just south of the CWA early Fri.
Will have to keep an eye on frontal position with later model runs as
a northward shift could lead to potentially heavy rainfall further
north towards our region. Rain likely to come to an end later Fri as
main storm system tracks off to the east. This should lead to a
mostly dry but seasonable weekend with temps warming into to the
lower to middle 60s both Sat and Sun.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR conditions expected through the fcst cycle. Winds will increase
from the southwest with gusts up to 20 kts possible through the
afternoon. Overnight...a weak front will move through the area which
will allow winds to veer after the 6z time frame. Aside from some
high clouds early this morning...skies should remain mostly cloud
free.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KEAX 301132
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
632 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Highly anticipated warmup to get underway today as high pressure
tracks into the Tenn Rvr Vly and southerly flow returns ahead of
next area of low pressure moving into the upper Midwest. With plenty
of sunshine and a downslope wind component...high temps this
afternoon will warm well into the upper 60s to lower 70s. The only
concern going forward will be the risk for elevated fire wx concerns
as modest boundary layer mixing combines with low relative humidity
once again. Current thinking suggest the areas most prone to "near
critical" conditions will be across far northwest Missouri and
northeastern Kansas where sustained winds in excess of 15 mph with
higher gusts will be possible later this afternoon. For now...will
advertise concerns in both the HWO and a Fire Wx SPS statement as
conditions are expected to fall just short of red flag criteria.

Beyond today...dry and moderating conditions expected right through
midweek with upper 70s/low 80s possible by Wed ahead of main cold
front still forecast to pass late Wed/early Thurs. Main concerns
associated with this feature continue to be possible severe weather
as front barrels through the area during the overnight period.
Inspection of several short term model solutions continue to suggest
front will possess anafront characteristics with main body of
precipitation expected to fall behind the front. Under these
scenarios...severe weather is normally less likely as best
instability remains ahead of the main frontal boundary. In any event
...low-level jet expected to increase during the overnight period
which could create a region of elevated instability above main
frontal zone. If this sets up as forecast...developing storms Wed
night may be able to generate some hail as elevated instability is
tapped. Overall damaging wind threat looks marginal based on stable
boundary layer conditions expected following fropa. Meanwhile with an
uninterrupted moisture supply from the Gulf...have increased pops to
high likely/categorical late Wed night/early Thu.

Cooler airmass to to settle into the region on Thursday as frontal
boundary stalls to our south. Another disturbance is forecast to track
along this feature Thurs ngt/early Fri which may lead to period of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall just south of the CWA early Fri.
Will have to keep an eye on frontal position with later model runs as
a northward shift could lead to potentially heavy rainfall further
north towards our region. Rain likely to come to an end later Fri as
main storm system tracks off to the east. This should lead to a
mostly dry but seasonable weekend with temps warming into to the
lower to middle 60s both Sat and Sun.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR conditions expected through the fcst cycle. Winds will increase
from the southwest with gusts up to 20 kts possible through the
afternoon. Overnight...a weak front will move through the area which
will allow winds to veer after the 6z time frame. Aside from some
high clouds early this morning...skies should remain mostly cloud
free.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KEAX 301132
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
632 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Highly anticipated warmup to get underway today as high pressure
tracks into the Tenn Rvr Vly and southerly flow returns ahead of
next area of low pressure moving into the upper Midwest. With plenty
of sunshine and a downslope wind component...high temps this
afternoon will warm well into the upper 60s to lower 70s. The only
concern going forward will be the risk for elevated fire wx concerns
as modest boundary layer mixing combines with low relative humidity
once again. Current thinking suggest the areas most prone to "near
critical" conditions will be across far northwest Missouri and
northeastern Kansas where sustained winds in excess of 15 mph with
higher gusts will be possible later this afternoon. For now...will
advertise concerns in both the HWO and a Fire Wx SPS statement as
conditions are expected to fall just short of red flag criteria.

Beyond today...dry and moderating conditions expected right through
midweek with upper 70s/low 80s possible by Wed ahead of main cold
front still forecast to pass late Wed/early Thurs. Main concerns
associated with this feature continue to be possible severe weather
as front barrels through the area during the overnight period.
Inspection of several short term model solutions continue to suggest
front will possess anafront characteristics with main body of
precipitation expected to fall behind the front. Under these
scenarios...severe weather is normally less likely as best
instability remains ahead of the main frontal boundary. In any event
...low-level jet expected to increase during the overnight period
which could create a region of elevated instability above main
frontal zone. If this sets up as forecast...developing storms Wed
night may be able to generate some hail as elevated instability is
tapped. Overall damaging wind threat looks marginal based on stable
boundary layer conditions expected following fropa. Meanwhile with an
uninterrupted moisture supply from the Gulf...have increased pops to
high likely/categorical late Wed night/early Thu.

Cooler airmass to to settle into the region on Thursday as frontal
boundary stalls to our south. Another disturbance is forecast to track
along this feature Thurs ngt/early Fri which may lead to period of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall just south of the CWA early Fri.
Will have to keep an eye on frontal position with later model runs as
a northward shift could lead to potentially heavy rainfall further
north towards our region. Rain likely to come to an end later Fri as
main storm system tracks off to the east. This should lead to a
mostly dry but seasonable weekend with temps warming into to the
lower to middle 60s both Sat and Sun.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR conditions expected through the fcst cycle. Winds will increase
from the southwest with gusts up to 20 kts possible through the
afternoon. Overnight...a weak front will move through the area which
will allow winds to veer after the 6z time frame. Aside from some
high clouds early this morning...skies should remain mostly cloud
free.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32






000
FXUS63 KSGF 301125
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
625 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A surface high is currently over southeastern Kansas this morning
and moving to the southeast. Skies were clear and temperatures
were seasonably cool this morning in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
A light southerly breeze will return today under sunny skies which
will help boost temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A
gorgeous day is in the forecast today followed by a pleasant night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging and height rises mean warmer temperatures for
Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak wind shift boundary may move through
on Tuesday with a few more clouds around but no precip is expected
or remain to our south. Temperatures will be in the middle to
upper 70s on Tuesday and maybe reaching near 80 by Wednesday.

The models are in good agreement with the next storm system
and have slowed it down somewhat beginning to affect the area very
late Wednesday night into Thursday. It appears the front may slow
down or briefly stall on Thursday and Thursday night across the
area as a wave of low pressure develops along it. There will be
a good chance of thunderstorms and some could be on the strong
side. SPC has most of the area highlighted in a slight risk for
severe weather on Thursday. Will keep an eye on
trends...atmospheric ingredients...and timing for some severe weather
around the Thursday time frame.

We could see a couple rounds of thunderstorms Thursday into early
Friday before this system finally kicks out of the area late
Friday. Cooler and drier weather return behind the front for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Pilots can expect VFR conditions today through tonight as surface
high pressure transitions eastward across the region.  Light
southerly surface winds will develop during the day.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 301125
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
625 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A surface high is currently over southeastern Kansas this morning
and moving to the southeast. Skies were clear and temperatures
were seasonably cool this morning in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
A light southerly breeze will return today under sunny skies which
will help boost temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A
gorgeous day is in the forecast today followed by a pleasant night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging and height rises mean warmer temperatures for
Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak wind shift boundary may move through
on Tuesday with a few more clouds around but no precip is expected
or remain to our south. Temperatures will be in the middle to
upper 70s on Tuesday and maybe reaching near 80 by Wednesday.

The models are in good agreement with the next storm system
and have slowed it down somewhat beginning to affect the area very
late Wednesday night into Thursday. It appears the front may slow
down or briefly stall on Thursday and Thursday night across the
area as a wave of low pressure develops along it. There will be
a good chance of thunderstorms and some could be on the strong
side. SPC has most of the area highlighted in a slight risk for
severe weather on Thursday. Will keep an eye on
trends...atmospheric ingredients...and timing for some severe weather
around the Thursday time frame.

We could see a couple rounds of thunderstorms Thursday into early
Friday before this system finally kicks out of the area late
Friday. Cooler and drier weather return behind the front for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Pilots can expect VFR conditions today through tonight as surface
high pressure transitions eastward across the region.  Light
southerly surface winds will develop during the day.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 301125
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
625 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A surface high is currently over southeastern Kansas this morning
and moving to the southeast. Skies were clear and temperatures
were seasonably cool this morning in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
A light southerly breeze will return today under sunny skies which
will help boost temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A
gorgeous day is in the forecast today followed by a pleasant night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging and height rises mean warmer temperatures for
Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak wind shift boundary may move through
on Tuesday with a few more clouds around but no precip is expected
or remain to our south. Temperatures will be in the middle to
upper 70s on Tuesday and maybe reaching near 80 by Wednesday.

The models are in good agreement with the next storm system
and have slowed it down somewhat beginning to affect the area very
late Wednesday night into Thursday. It appears the front may slow
down or briefly stall on Thursday and Thursday night across the
area as a wave of low pressure develops along it. There will be
a good chance of thunderstorms and some could be on the strong
side. SPC has most of the area highlighted in a slight risk for
severe weather on Thursday. Will keep an eye on
trends...atmospheric ingredients...and timing for some severe weather
around the Thursday time frame.

We could see a couple rounds of thunderstorms Thursday into early
Friday before this system finally kicks out of the area late
Friday. Cooler and drier weather return behind the front for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Pilots can expect VFR conditions today through tonight as surface
high pressure transitions eastward across the region.  Light
southerly surface winds will develop during the day.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster






000
FXUS63 KSGF 301125
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
625 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A surface high is currently over southeastern Kansas this morning
and moving to the southeast. Skies were clear and temperatures
were seasonably cool this morning in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
A light southerly breeze will return today under sunny skies which
will help boost temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A
gorgeous day is in the forecast today followed by a pleasant night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging and height rises mean warmer temperatures for
Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak wind shift boundary may move through
on Tuesday with a few more clouds around but no precip is expected
or remain to our south. Temperatures will be in the middle to
upper 70s on Tuesday and maybe reaching near 80 by Wednesday.

The models are in good agreement with the next storm system
and have slowed it down somewhat beginning to affect the area very
late Wednesday night into Thursday. It appears the front may slow
down or briefly stall on Thursday and Thursday night across the
area as a wave of low pressure develops along it. There will be
a good chance of thunderstorms and some could be on the strong
side. SPC has most of the area highlighted in a slight risk for
severe weather on Thursday. Will keep an eye on
trends...atmospheric ingredients...and timing for some severe weather
around the Thursday time frame.

We could see a couple rounds of thunderstorms Thursday into early
Friday before this system finally kicks out of the area late
Friday. Cooler and drier weather return behind the front for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Pilots can expect VFR conditions today through tonight as surface
high pressure transitions eastward across the region.  Light
southerly surface winds will develop during the day.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster






000
FXUS63 KSGF 301125
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
625 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A surface high is currently over southeastern Kansas this morning
and moving to the southeast. Skies were clear and temperatures
were seasonably cool this morning in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
A light southerly breeze will return today under sunny skies which
will help boost temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A
gorgeous day is in the forecast today followed by a pleasant night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging and height rises mean warmer temperatures for
Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak wind shift boundary may move through
on Tuesday with a few more clouds around but no precip is expected
or remain to our south. Temperatures will be in the middle to
upper 70s on Tuesday and maybe reaching near 80 by Wednesday.

The models are in good agreement with the next storm system
and have slowed it down somewhat beginning to affect the area very
late Wednesday night into Thursday. It appears the front may slow
down or briefly stall on Thursday and Thursday night across the
area as a wave of low pressure develops along it. There will be
a good chance of thunderstorms and some could be on the strong
side. SPC has most of the area highlighted in a slight risk for
severe weather on Thursday. Will keep an eye on
trends...atmospheric ingredients...and timing for some severe weather
around the Thursday time frame.

We could see a couple rounds of thunderstorms Thursday into early
Friday before this system finally kicks out of the area late
Friday. Cooler and drier weather return behind the front for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Pilots can expect VFR conditions today through tonight as surface
high pressure transitions eastward across the region.  Light
southerly surface winds will develop during the day.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster






000
FXUS63 KSGF 301125
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
625 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A surface high is currently over southeastern Kansas this morning
and moving to the southeast. Skies were clear and temperatures
were seasonably cool this morning in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
A light southerly breeze will return today under sunny skies which
will help boost temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A
gorgeous day is in the forecast today followed by a pleasant night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging and height rises mean warmer temperatures for
Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak wind shift boundary may move through
on Tuesday with a few more clouds around but no precip is expected
or remain to our south. Temperatures will be in the middle to
upper 70s on Tuesday and maybe reaching near 80 by Wednesday.

The models are in good agreement with the next storm system
and have slowed it down somewhat beginning to affect the area very
late Wednesday night into Thursday. It appears the front may slow
down or briefly stall on Thursday and Thursday night across the
area as a wave of low pressure develops along it. There will be
a good chance of thunderstorms and some could be on the strong
side. SPC has most of the area highlighted in a slight risk for
severe weather on Thursday. Will keep an eye on
trends...atmospheric ingredients...and timing for some severe weather
around the Thursday time frame.

We could see a couple rounds of thunderstorms Thursday into early
Friday before this system finally kicks out of the area late
Friday. Cooler and drier weather return behind the front for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Pilots can expect VFR conditions today through tonight as surface
high pressure transitions eastward across the region.  Light
southerly surface winds will develop during the day.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster






000
FXUS63 KLSX 301115
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
615 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

NW flow in place into Tue with upper lvl ridging beginning to
build in by Tuesday night. Weak short wave embedded in the NW flow
fcst to pass well NE of the FA Mon night into Tue. SFC ridge will
pass from the mid-MS vly into the TN vly today allowing winds to
become SW by this evng which will make a warmer night. An area of
low pressure assoc with the aforementioned short wave will drag a
weak cold front thru the CWA Tue. Should be an AM FROPA across the
nthrn CWA tempering the temp rise somewhat with NW winds and weak
CAA drng the aftn....though temps should still warm above avg with
highs near 70. South of I70...a good deal of sunshine and a longer
prd of SW winds should allow temps to rise well into the 70s.
Previous system from Sun has scoured out most of the available
moisture. Moisture return should be negligible due to limited
duration of return flow and sfc ridge across the Deep South
effectively closing the Gulf for business...so FROPA should be
dry. Removed slight chance PoPs across the far sthrn portion of
the CWA for Tue PM. Moisture appears to be limited and quite
shallow. Also...front settles along the AR/MO border which is
where there is marginally better moisture and hence any SHRA
activity should reside. SFC ridge builds into the Grt Lks Tue
night...sliding into the the OH vly by Wed.

2%

.LONG TERM: (Wednesday thru Sunday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Upper lvl ridge axis passes Wed. A decent short wave tracks
across the nthrn CONUS Wed night/Thu with a general weakness in
the H500 heights extending SW into another short wave coming
onshore across CA Wed night. These two features will combine to
produce a prd of wet weather for the region.

Sfc ridge axis passes Wed mrng allowing return flow to begin by Wed
aftn. The first short wave will lift an area of low pressure from
the Dakotas into sthrn Canada Wed mrng into Wed evng. This will push
a cold front into the Midwest Wed aftn. Winds should strengthen and
become gusty by aftn as the pressure gradient increases in advance
of the cold front. The front will slowly slide SE Wed night and Thu.
The GFS is faster with the initial push of the bndry bringing it into
the nthrn FA Wed night while the ECMWF waits until Thu. This time
the Gulf will be open for business allowing sufficient moisture for
the system to work with with. Precip chances begin as early as Wed
aftn...mainly across MO with better chances across NE MO after
midnight Wed night. Precip chances increase from NW to SE on Thu as
the front sags south. The bndry is fcst to stall along or just north
of the AR/MO border Thu night as an area of low pressure dvlps
across the sthrn Pains Thu night in response to the second short
wave. The bndry is fcst to remain nearly stnry thru Fri until the
low passes Fri PM as it rides NE along the front into the OH vly by
Fri night keeping precip chances going for areas mainly along and
south of I70. Nthrn portions of the FA may only have one shot at
precip with FROPA with the main area of precip remaining along and
south of I70 Thu night thru Fri night. Stay tuned though as the
eventual position of where the bndry stalls will determine nthrn
extent of the precip.

Saturday through Sunday

High pressure builds into the cntrl CONUS for the wknd producing dry
conditions and seasonal temps.

2%

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

VFR flight conditions expected through the forecast period.
Surface winds will veer to southwesterly this morning and
southerly tonight.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions expected through the forecast period.
Surface winds will veer to southwesterly this morning and
southerly tonight.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 301115
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
615 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

NW flow in place into Tue with upper lvl ridging beginning to
build in by Tuesday night. Weak short wave embedded in the NW flow
fcst to pass well NE of the FA Mon night into Tue. SFC ridge will
pass from the mid-MS vly into the TN vly today allowing winds to
become SW by this evng which will make a warmer night. An area of
low pressure assoc with the aforementioned short wave will drag a
weak cold front thru the CWA Tue. Should be an AM FROPA across the
nthrn CWA tempering the temp rise somewhat with NW winds and weak
CAA drng the aftn....though temps should still warm above avg with
highs near 70. South of I70...a good deal of sunshine and a longer
prd of SW winds should allow temps to rise well into the 70s.
Previous system from Sun has scoured out most of the available
moisture. Moisture return should be negligible due to limited
duration of return flow and sfc ridge across the Deep South
effectively closing the Gulf for business...so FROPA should be
dry. Removed slight chance PoPs across the far sthrn portion of
the CWA for Tue PM. Moisture appears to be limited and quite
shallow. Also...front settles along the AR/MO border which is
where there is marginally better moisture and hence any SHRA
activity should reside. SFC ridge builds into the Grt Lks Tue
night...sliding into the the OH vly by Wed.

2%

.LONG TERM: (Wednesday thru Sunday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Upper lvl ridge axis passes Wed. A decent short wave tracks
across the nthrn CONUS Wed night/Thu with a general weakness in
the H500 heights extending SW into another short wave coming
onshore across CA Wed night. These two features will combine to
produce a prd of wet weather for the region.

Sfc ridge axis passes Wed mrng allowing return flow to begin by Wed
aftn. The first short wave will lift an area of low pressure from
the Dakotas into sthrn Canada Wed mrng into Wed evng. This will push
a cold front into the Midwest Wed aftn. Winds should strengthen and
become gusty by aftn as the pressure gradient increases in advance
of the cold front. The front will slowly slide SE Wed night and Thu.
The GFS is faster with the initial push of the bndry bringing it into
the nthrn FA Wed night while the ECMWF waits until Thu. This time
the Gulf will be open for business allowing sufficient moisture for
the system to work with with. Precip chances begin as early as Wed
aftn...mainly across MO with better chances across NE MO after
midnight Wed night. Precip chances increase from NW to SE on Thu as
the front sags south. The bndry is fcst to stall along or just north
of the AR/MO border Thu night as an area of low pressure dvlps
across the sthrn Pains Thu night in response to the second short
wave. The bndry is fcst to remain nearly stnry thru Fri until the
low passes Fri PM as it rides NE along the front into the OH vly by
Fri night keeping precip chances going for areas mainly along and
south of I70. Nthrn portions of the FA may only have one shot at
precip with FROPA with the main area of precip remaining along and
south of I70 Thu night thru Fri night. Stay tuned though as the
eventual position of where the bndry stalls will determine nthrn
extent of the precip.

Saturday through Sunday

High pressure builds into the cntrl CONUS for the wknd producing dry
conditions and seasonal temps.

2%

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

VFR flight conditions expected through the forecast period.
Surface winds will veer to southwesterly this morning and
southerly tonight.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions expected through the forecast period.
Surface winds will veer to southwesterly this morning and
southerly tonight.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 301115
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
615 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

NW flow in place into Tue with upper lvl ridging beginning to
build in by Tuesday night. Weak short wave embedded in the NW flow
fcst to pass well NE of the FA Mon night into Tue. SFC ridge will
pass from the mid-MS vly into the TN vly today allowing winds to
become SW by this evng which will make a warmer night. An area of
low pressure assoc with the aforementioned short wave will drag a
weak cold front thru the CWA Tue. Should be an AM FROPA across the
nthrn CWA tempering the temp rise somewhat with NW winds and weak
CAA drng the aftn....though temps should still warm above avg with
highs near 70. South of I70...a good deal of sunshine and a longer
prd of SW winds should allow temps to rise well into the 70s.
Previous system from Sun has scoured out most of the available
moisture. Moisture return should be negligible due to limited
duration of return flow and sfc ridge across the Deep South
effectively closing the Gulf for business...so FROPA should be
dry. Removed slight chance PoPs across the far sthrn portion of
the CWA for Tue PM. Moisture appears to be limited and quite
shallow. Also...front settles along the AR/MO border which is
where there is marginally better moisture and hence any SHRA
activity should reside. SFC ridge builds into the Grt Lks Tue
night...sliding into the the OH vly by Wed.

2%

.LONG TERM: (Wednesday thru Sunday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Upper lvl ridge axis passes Wed. A decent short wave tracks
across the nthrn CONUS Wed night/Thu with a general weakness in
the H500 heights extending SW into another short wave coming
onshore across CA Wed night. These two features will combine to
produce a prd of wet weather for the region.

Sfc ridge axis passes Wed mrng allowing return flow to begin by Wed
aftn. The first short wave will lift an area of low pressure from
the Dakotas into sthrn Canada Wed mrng into Wed evng. This will push
a cold front into the Midwest Wed aftn. Winds should strengthen and
become gusty by aftn as the pressure gradient increases in advance
of the cold front. The front will slowly slide SE Wed night and Thu.
The GFS is faster with the initial push of the bndry bringing it into
the nthrn FA Wed night while the ECMWF waits until Thu. This time
the Gulf will be open for business allowing sufficient moisture for
the system to work with with. Precip chances begin as early as Wed
aftn...mainly across MO with better chances across NE MO after
midnight Wed night. Precip chances increase from NW to SE on Thu as
the front sags south. The bndry is fcst to stall along or just north
of the AR/MO border Thu night as an area of low pressure dvlps
across the sthrn Pains Thu night in response to the second short
wave. The bndry is fcst to remain nearly stnry thru Fri until the
low passes Fri PM as it rides NE along the front into the OH vly by
Fri night keeping precip chances going for areas mainly along and
south of I70. Nthrn portions of the FA may only have one shot at
precip with FROPA with the main area of precip remaining along and
south of I70 Thu night thru Fri night. Stay tuned though as the
eventual position of where the bndry stalls will determine nthrn
extent of the precip.

Saturday through Sunday

High pressure builds into the cntrl CONUS for the wknd producing dry
conditions and seasonal temps.

2%

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

VFR flight conditions expected through the forecast period.
Surface winds will veer to southwesterly this morning and
southerly tonight.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions expected through the forecast period.
Surface winds will veer to southwesterly this morning and
southerly tonight.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 301115
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
615 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

NW flow in place into Tue with upper lvl ridging beginning to
build in by Tuesday night. Weak short wave embedded in the NW flow
fcst to pass well NE of the FA Mon night into Tue. SFC ridge will
pass from the mid-MS vly into the TN vly today allowing winds to
become SW by this evng which will make a warmer night. An area of
low pressure assoc with the aforementioned short wave will drag a
weak cold front thru the CWA Tue. Should be an AM FROPA across the
nthrn CWA tempering the temp rise somewhat with NW winds and weak
CAA drng the aftn....though temps should still warm above avg with
highs near 70. South of I70...a good deal of sunshine and a longer
prd of SW winds should allow temps to rise well into the 70s.
Previous system from Sun has scoured out most of the available
moisture. Moisture return should be negligible due to limited
duration of return flow and sfc ridge across the Deep South
effectively closing the Gulf for business...so FROPA should be
dry. Removed slight chance PoPs across the far sthrn portion of
the CWA for Tue PM. Moisture appears to be limited and quite
shallow. Also...front settles along the AR/MO border which is
where there is marginally better moisture and hence any SHRA
activity should reside. SFC ridge builds into the Grt Lks Tue
night...sliding into the the OH vly by Wed.

2%

.LONG TERM: (Wednesday thru Sunday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Upper lvl ridge axis passes Wed. A decent short wave tracks
across the nthrn CONUS Wed night/Thu with a general weakness in
the H500 heights extending SW into another short wave coming
onshore across CA Wed night. These two features will combine to
produce a prd of wet weather for the region.

Sfc ridge axis passes Wed mrng allowing return flow to begin by Wed
aftn. The first short wave will lift an area of low pressure from
the Dakotas into sthrn Canada Wed mrng into Wed evng. This will push
a cold front into the Midwest Wed aftn. Winds should strengthen and
become gusty by aftn as the pressure gradient increases in advance
of the cold front. The front will slowly slide SE Wed night and Thu.
The GFS is faster with the initial push of the bndry bringing it into
the nthrn FA Wed night while the ECMWF waits until Thu. This time
the Gulf will be open for business allowing sufficient moisture for
the system to work with with. Precip chances begin as early as Wed
aftn...mainly across MO with better chances across NE MO after
midnight Wed night. Precip chances increase from NW to SE on Thu as
the front sags south. The bndry is fcst to stall along or just north
of the AR/MO border Thu night as an area of low pressure dvlps
across the sthrn Pains Thu night in response to the second short
wave. The bndry is fcst to remain nearly stnry thru Fri until the
low passes Fri PM as it rides NE along the front into the OH vly by
Fri night keeping precip chances going for areas mainly along and
south of I70. Nthrn portions of the FA may only have one shot at
precip with FROPA with the main area of precip remaining along and
south of I70 Thu night thru Fri night. Stay tuned though as the
eventual position of where the bndry stalls will determine nthrn
extent of the precip.

Saturday through Sunday

High pressure builds into the cntrl CONUS for the wknd producing dry
conditions and seasonal temps.

2%

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

VFR flight conditions expected through the forecast period.
Surface winds will veer to southwesterly this morning and
southerly tonight.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions expected through the forecast period.
Surface winds will veer to southwesterly this morning and
southerly tonight.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 300823
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
323 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Highly anticipated warmup to get underway today as high pressure
tracks into the Tenn Rvr Vly and southerly flow returns ahead of
next area of low pressure moving into the upper Midwest. With plenty
of sunshine and a downslope wind component...high temps this
afternoon will warm well into the upper 60s to lower 70s. The only
concern going forward will be the risk for elevated fire wx concerns
as modest boundary layer mixing combines with low relative humidity
once again. Current thinking suggest the areas most prone to "near
critical" conditions will be across far northwest Missouri and
northeastern Kansas where sustained winds in excess of 15 mph with
higher gusts will be possible later this afternoon. For now...will
advertise concerns in both the HWO and a Fire Wx SPS statement as
conditions are expected to fall just short of red flag criteria.

Beyond today...dry and moderating conditions expected right through
midweek with upper 70s/low 80s possible by Wed ahead of main cold
front still forecast to pass late Wed/early Thurs. Main concerns
associated with this feature continue to be possible severe weather
as front barrels through the area during the overnight period.
Inspection of several short term model solutions continue to suggest
front will possess anafront characteristics with main body of
precipitation expected to fall behind the front. Under these
scenarios...severe weather is normally less likely as best
instability remains ahead of the main frontal boundary. In any event
...low-level jet expected to increase during the overnight period
which could create a region of elevated instability above main
frontal zone. If this sets up as forecast...developing storms Wed
night may be able to generate some hail as elevated instability is
tapped. Overall damaging wind threat looks marginal based on stable
boundary layer conditions expected following fropa. Meanwhile with an
uninterrupted moisture supply from the Gulf...have increased pops to
high likely/categorical late Wed night/early Thu.

Cooler airmass to to settle into the region on Thursday as frontal
boundary stalls to our south. Another disturbance is forecast to track
along this feature Thurs ngt/early Fri which may lead to period of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall just south of the CWA early Fri.
Will have to keep an eye on frontal position with later model runs as
a northward shift could lead to potentially heavy rainfall further
north towards our region. Rain likely to come to an end later Fri as
main storm system tracks off to the east. This should lead to a
mostly dry but seasonable weekend with temps warming into to the
lower to middle 60s both Sat and Sun.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR at all the terminals for the next 24 hours. Only issues to watch
will be wind gusts this afternoon as southerly winds get a little
gusty.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KEAX 300823
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
323 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Highly anticipated warmup to get underway today as high pressure
tracks into the Tenn Rvr Vly and southerly flow returns ahead of
next area of low pressure moving into the upper Midwest. With plenty
of sunshine and a downslope wind component...high temps this
afternoon will warm well into the upper 60s to lower 70s. The only
concern going forward will be the risk for elevated fire wx concerns
as modest boundary layer mixing combines with low relative humidity
once again. Current thinking suggest the areas most prone to "near
critical" conditions will be across far northwest Missouri and
northeastern Kansas where sustained winds in excess of 15 mph with
higher gusts will be possible later this afternoon. For now...will
advertise concerns in both the HWO and a Fire Wx SPS statement as
conditions are expected to fall just short of red flag criteria.

Beyond today...dry and moderating conditions expected right through
midweek with upper 70s/low 80s possible by Wed ahead of main cold
front still forecast to pass late Wed/early Thurs. Main concerns
associated with this feature continue to be possible severe weather
as front barrels through the area during the overnight period.
Inspection of several short term model solutions continue to suggest
front will possess anafront characteristics with main body of
precipitation expected to fall behind the front. Under these
scenarios...severe weather is normally less likely as best
instability remains ahead of the main frontal boundary. In any event
...low-level jet expected to increase during the overnight period
which could create a region of elevated instability above main
frontal zone. If this sets up as forecast...developing storms Wed
night may be able to generate some hail as elevated instability is
tapped. Overall damaging wind threat looks marginal based on stable
boundary layer conditions expected following fropa. Meanwhile with an
uninterrupted moisture supply from the Gulf...have increased pops to
high likely/categorical late Wed night/early Thu.

Cooler airmass to to settle into the region on Thursday as frontal
boundary stalls to our south. Another disturbance is forecast to track
along this feature Thurs ngt/early Fri which may lead to period of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall just south of the CWA early Fri.
Will have to keep an eye on frontal position with later model runs as
a northward shift could lead to potentially heavy rainfall further
north towards our region. Rain likely to come to an end later Fri as
main storm system tracks off to the east. This should lead to a
mostly dry but seasonable weekend with temps warming into to the
lower to middle 60s both Sat and Sun.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR at all the terminals for the next 24 hours. Only issues to watch
will be wind gusts this afternoon as southerly winds get a little
gusty.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KEAX 300823
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
323 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Highly anticipated warmup to get underway today as high pressure
tracks into the Tenn Rvr Vly and southerly flow returns ahead of
next area of low pressure moving into the upper Midwest. With plenty
of sunshine and a downslope wind component...high temps this
afternoon will warm well into the upper 60s to lower 70s. The only
concern going forward will be the risk for elevated fire wx concerns
as modest boundary layer mixing combines with low relative humidity
once again. Current thinking suggest the areas most prone to "near
critical" conditions will be across far northwest Missouri and
northeastern Kansas where sustained winds in excess of 15 mph with
higher gusts will be possible later this afternoon. For now...will
advertise concerns in both the HWO and a Fire Wx SPS statement as
conditions are expected to fall just short of red flag criteria.

Beyond today...dry and moderating conditions expected right through
midweek with upper 70s/low 80s possible by Wed ahead of main cold
front still forecast to pass late Wed/early Thurs. Main concerns
associated with this feature continue to be possible severe weather
as front barrels through the area during the overnight period.
Inspection of several short term model solutions continue to suggest
front will possess anafront characteristics with main body of
precipitation expected to fall behind the front. Under these
scenarios...severe weather is normally less likely as best
instability remains ahead of the main frontal boundary. In any event
...low-level jet expected to increase during the overnight period
which could create a region of elevated instability above main
frontal zone. If this sets up as forecast...developing storms Wed
night may be able to generate some hail as elevated instability is
tapped. Overall damaging wind threat looks marginal based on stable
boundary layer conditions expected following fropa. Meanwhile with an
uninterrupted moisture supply from the Gulf...have increased pops to
high likely/categorical late Wed night/early Thu.

Cooler airmass to to settle into the region on Thursday as frontal
boundary stalls to our south. Another disturbance is forecast to track
along this feature Thurs ngt/early Fri which may lead to period of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall just south of the CWA early Fri.
Will have to keep an eye on frontal position with later model runs as
a northward shift could lead to potentially heavy rainfall further
north towards our region. Rain likely to come to an end later Fri as
main storm system tracks off to the east. This should lead to a
mostly dry but seasonable weekend with temps warming into to the
lower to middle 60s both Sat and Sun.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR at all the terminals for the next 24 hours. Only issues to watch
will be wind gusts this afternoon as southerly winds get a little
gusty.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KEAX 300823
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
323 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Highly anticipated warmup to get underway today as high pressure
tracks into the Tenn Rvr Vly and southerly flow returns ahead of
next area of low pressure moving into the upper Midwest. With plenty
of sunshine and a downslope wind component...high temps this
afternoon will warm well into the upper 60s to lower 70s. The only
concern going forward will be the risk for elevated fire wx concerns
as modest boundary layer mixing combines with low relative humidity
once again. Current thinking suggest the areas most prone to "near
critical" conditions will be across far northwest Missouri and
northeastern Kansas where sustained winds in excess of 15 mph with
higher gusts will be possible later this afternoon. For now...will
advertise concerns in both the HWO and a Fire Wx SPS statement as
conditions are expected to fall just short of red flag criteria.

Beyond today...dry and moderating conditions expected right through
midweek with upper 70s/low 80s possible by Wed ahead of main cold
front still forecast to pass late Wed/early Thurs. Main concerns
associated with this feature continue to be possible severe weather
as front barrels through the area during the overnight period.
Inspection of several short term model solutions continue to suggest
front will possess anafront characteristics with main body of
precipitation expected to fall behind the front. Under these
scenarios...severe weather is normally less likely as best
instability remains ahead of the main frontal boundary. In any event
...low-level jet expected to increase during the overnight period
which could create a region of elevated instability above main
frontal zone. If this sets up as forecast...developing storms Wed
night may be able to generate some hail as elevated instability is
tapped. Overall damaging wind threat looks marginal based on stable
boundary layer conditions expected following fropa. Meanwhile with an
uninterrupted moisture supply from the Gulf...have increased pops to
high likely/categorical late Wed night/early Thu.

Cooler airmass to to settle into the region on Thursday as frontal
boundary stalls to our south. Another disturbance is forecast to track
along this feature Thurs ngt/early Fri which may lead to period of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall just south of the CWA early Fri.
Will have to keep an eye on frontal position with later model runs as
a northward shift could lead to potentially heavy rainfall further
north towards our region. Rain likely to come to an end later Fri as
main storm system tracks off to the east. This should lead to a
mostly dry but seasonable weekend with temps warming into to the
lower to middle 60s both Sat and Sun.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR at all the terminals for the next 24 hours. Only issues to watch
will be wind gusts this afternoon as southerly winds get a little
gusty.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KLSX 300803
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
303 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

NW flow in place into Tue with upper lvl ridging beginning to
build in by Tuesday night. Weak short wave embedded in the NW flow
fcst to pass well NE of the FA Mon night into Tue. SFC ridge will
pass from the mid-MS vly into the TN vly today allowing winds to
become SW by this evng which will make a warmer night. An area of
low pressure assoc with the aforementioned short wave will drag a
weak cold front thru the CWA Tue. Should be an AM FROPA across the
nthrn CWA tempering the temp rise somewhat with NW winds and weak
CAA drng the aftn....though temps should still warm above avg with
highs near 70. South of I70...a good deal of sunshine and a longer
prd of SW winds should allow temps to rise well into the 70s.
Previous system from Sun has scoured out most of the available
moisture. Moisture return should be negligible due to limited
duration of return flow and sfc ridge across the Deep South
effectively closing the Gulf for business...so FROPA should be
dry. Removed slight chance PoPs across the far sthrn portion of
the CWA for Tue PM. Moisture appears to be limited and quite
shallow. Also...front settles along the AR/MO border which is
where there is marginally better moisture and hence any SHRA
activity should reside. SFC ridge builds into the Grt Lks Tue
night...sliding into the the OH vly by Wed.

2%

.LONG TERM: (Wednesday thru Sunday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Upper lvl ridge axis passes Wed. A decent short wave tracks
across the nthrn CONUS Wed night/Thu with a general weakness in
the H500 heights extending SW into another short wave coming
onshore across CA Wed night. These two features will combine to
produce a prd of wet weather for the region.

Sfc ridge axis passes Wed mrng allowing return flow to begin by Wed
aftn. The first short wave will lift an area of low pressure from
the Dakotas into sthrn Canada Wed mrng into Wed evng. This will push
a cold front into the Midwest Wed aftn. Winds should strengthen and
become gusty by aftn as the pressure gradient increases in advance
of the cold front. The front will slowly slide SE Wed night and Thu.
The GFS is faster with the initial push of the bndry bringing it into
the nthrn FA Wed night while the ECMWF waits until Thu. This time
the Gulf will be open for business allowing sufficient moisture for
the system to work with with. Precip chances begin as early as Wed
aftn...mainly across MO with better chances across NE MO after
midnight Wed night. Precip chances increase from NW to SE on Thu as
the front sags south. The bndry is fcst to stall along or just north
of the AR/MO border Thu night as an area of low pressure dvlps
across the sthrn Pains Thu night in response to the second short
wave. The bndry is fcst to remain nearly stnry thru Fri until the
low passes Fri PM as it rides NE along the front into the OH vly by
Fri night keeping precip chances going for areas mainly along and
south of I70. Nthrn portions of the FA may only have one shot at
precip with FROPA with the main area of precip remaining along and
south of I70 Thu night thru Fri night. Stay tuned though as the
eventual position of where the bndry stalls will determine nthrn
extent of the precip.

Saturday through Sunday

High pressure builds into the cntrl CONUS for the wknd producing dry
conditions and seasonal temps.

2%

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Showers have pushed est of the area in advance of a cold front.
Pre-frontal trof has moved through producing a west wind with a
shift to the northwest coming this evening. Temp and dew point
spreads look to stay large enough to prevent fog, but will watch
closely given the light rain that fell at some locations. Some
mid clouds for a couple of hours then a clear sky. Wind shifts
back to the southwest Monday morning with continued VFR.

Specifics for KSTL: Gradual shift to a northwest wind, then
quickly back to southwest Monday morning. VFR through Monday.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 300803
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
303 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

NW flow in place into Tue with upper lvl ridging beginning to
build in by Tuesday night. Weak short wave embedded in the NW flow
fcst to pass well NE of the FA Mon night into Tue. SFC ridge will
pass from the mid-MS vly into the TN vly today allowing winds to
become SW by this evng which will make a warmer night. An area of
low pressure assoc with the aforementioned short wave will drag a
weak cold front thru the CWA Tue. Should be an AM FROPA across the
nthrn CWA tempering the temp rise somewhat with NW winds and weak
CAA drng the aftn....though temps should still warm above avg with
highs near 70. South of I70...a good deal of sunshine and a longer
prd of SW winds should allow temps to rise well into the 70s.
Previous system from Sun has scoured out most of the available
moisture. Moisture return should be negligible due to limited
duration of return flow and sfc ridge across the Deep South
effectively closing the Gulf for business...so FROPA should be
dry. Removed slight chance PoPs across the far sthrn portion of
the CWA for Tue PM. Moisture appears to be limited and quite
shallow. Also...front settles along the AR/MO border which is
where there is marginally better moisture and hence any SHRA
activity should reside. SFC ridge builds into the Grt Lks Tue
night...sliding into the the OH vly by Wed.

2%

.LONG TERM: (Wednesday thru Sunday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Upper lvl ridge axis passes Wed. A decent short wave tracks
across the nthrn CONUS Wed night/Thu with a general weakness in
the H500 heights extending SW into another short wave coming
onshore across CA Wed night. These two features will combine to
produce a prd of wet weather for the region.

Sfc ridge axis passes Wed mrng allowing return flow to begin by Wed
aftn. The first short wave will lift an area of low pressure from
the Dakotas into sthrn Canada Wed mrng into Wed evng. This will push
a cold front into the Midwest Wed aftn. Winds should strengthen and
become gusty by aftn as the pressure gradient increases in advance
of the cold front. The front will slowly slide SE Wed night and Thu.
The GFS is faster with the initial push of the bndry bringing it into
the nthrn FA Wed night while the ECMWF waits until Thu. This time
the Gulf will be open for business allowing sufficient moisture for
the system to work with with. Precip chances begin as early as Wed
aftn...mainly across MO with better chances across NE MO after
midnight Wed night. Precip chances increase from NW to SE on Thu as
the front sags south. The bndry is fcst to stall along or just north
of the AR/MO border Thu night as an area of low pressure dvlps
across the sthrn Pains Thu night in response to the second short
wave. The bndry is fcst to remain nearly stnry thru Fri until the
low passes Fri PM as it rides NE along the front into the OH vly by
Fri night keeping precip chances going for areas mainly along and
south of I70. Nthrn portions of the FA may only have one shot at
precip with FROPA with the main area of precip remaining along and
south of I70 Thu night thru Fri night. Stay tuned though as the
eventual position of where the bndry stalls will determine nthrn
extent of the precip.

Saturday through Sunday

High pressure builds into the cntrl CONUS for the wknd producing dry
conditions and seasonal temps.

2%

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Showers have pushed est of the area in advance of a cold front.
Pre-frontal trof has moved through producing a west wind with a
shift to the northwest coming this evening. Temp and dew point
spreads look to stay large enough to prevent fog, but will watch
closely given the light rain that fell at some locations. Some
mid clouds for a couple of hours then a clear sky. Wind shifts
back to the southwest Monday morning with continued VFR.

Specifics for KSTL: Gradual shift to a northwest wind, then
quickly back to southwest Monday morning. VFR through Monday.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 300803
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
303 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

NW flow in place into Tue with upper lvl ridging beginning to
build in by Tuesday night. Weak short wave embedded in the NW flow
fcst to pass well NE of the FA Mon night into Tue. SFC ridge will
pass from the mid-MS vly into the TN vly today allowing winds to
become SW by this evng which will make a warmer night. An area of
low pressure assoc with the aforementioned short wave will drag a
weak cold front thru the CWA Tue. Should be an AM FROPA across the
nthrn CWA tempering the temp rise somewhat with NW winds and weak
CAA drng the aftn....though temps should still warm above avg with
highs near 70. South of I70...a good deal of sunshine and a longer
prd of SW winds should allow temps to rise well into the 70s.
Previous system from Sun has scoured out most of the available
moisture. Moisture return should be negligible due to limited
duration of return flow and sfc ridge across the Deep South
effectively closing the Gulf for business...so FROPA should be
dry. Removed slight chance PoPs across the far sthrn portion of
the CWA for Tue PM. Moisture appears to be limited and quite
shallow. Also...front settles along the AR/MO border which is
where there is marginally better moisture and hence any SHRA
activity should reside. SFC ridge builds into the Grt Lks Tue
night...sliding into the the OH vly by Wed.

2%

.LONG TERM: (Wednesday thru Sunday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Upper lvl ridge axis passes Wed. A decent short wave tracks
across the nthrn CONUS Wed night/Thu with a general weakness in
the H500 heights extending SW into another short wave coming
onshore across CA Wed night. These two features will combine to
produce a prd of wet weather for the region.

Sfc ridge axis passes Wed mrng allowing return flow to begin by Wed
aftn. The first short wave will lift an area of low pressure from
the Dakotas into sthrn Canada Wed mrng into Wed evng. This will push
a cold front into the Midwest Wed aftn. Winds should strengthen and
become gusty by aftn as the pressure gradient increases in advance
of the cold front. The front will slowly slide SE Wed night and Thu.
The GFS is faster with the initial push of the bndry bringing it into
the nthrn FA Wed night while the ECMWF waits until Thu. This time
the Gulf will be open for business allowing sufficient moisture for
the system to work with with. Precip chances begin as early as Wed
aftn...mainly across MO with better chances across NE MO after
midnight Wed night. Precip chances increase from NW to SE on Thu as
the front sags south. The bndry is fcst to stall along or just north
of the AR/MO border Thu night as an area of low pressure dvlps
across the sthrn Pains Thu night in response to the second short
wave. The bndry is fcst to remain nearly stnry thru Fri until the
low passes Fri PM as it rides NE along the front into the OH vly by
Fri night keeping precip chances going for areas mainly along and
south of I70. Nthrn portions of the FA may only have one shot at
precip with FROPA with the main area of precip remaining along and
south of I70 Thu night thru Fri night. Stay tuned though as the
eventual position of where the bndry stalls will determine nthrn
extent of the precip.

Saturday through Sunday

High pressure builds into the cntrl CONUS for the wknd producing dry
conditions and seasonal temps.

2%

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Showers have pushed est of the area in advance of a cold front.
Pre-frontal trof has moved through producing a west wind with a
shift to the northwest coming this evening. Temp and dew point
spreads look to stay large enough to prevent fog, but will watch
closely given the light rain that fell at some locations. Some
mid clouds for a couple of hours then a clear sky. Wind shifts
back to the southwest Monday morning with continued VFR.

Specifics for KSTL: Gradual shift to a northwest wind, then
quickly back to southwest Monday morning. VFR through Monday.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 300803
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
303 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

NW flow in place into Tue with upper lvl ridging beginning to
build in by Tuesday night. Weak short wave embedded in the NW flow
fcst to pass well NE of the FA Mon night into Tue. SFC ridge will
pass from the mid-MS vly into the TN vly today allowing winds to
become SW by this evng which will make a warmer night. An area of
low pressure assoc with the aforementioned short wave will drag a
weak cold front thru the CWA Tue. Should be an AM FROPA across the
nthrn CWA tempering the temp rise somewhat with NW winds and weak
CAA drng the aftn....though temps should still warm above avg with
highs near 70. South of I70...a good deal of sunshine and a longer
prd of SW winds should allow temps to rise well into the 70s.
Previous system from Sun has scoured out most of the available
moisture. Moisture return should be negligible due to limited
duration of return flow and sfc ridge across the Deep South
effectively closing the Gulf for business...so FROPA should be
dry. Removed slight chance PoPs across the far sthrn portion of
the CWA for Tue PM. Moisture appears to be limited and quite
shallow. Also...front settles along the AR/MO border which is
where there is marginally better moisture and hence any SHRA
activity should reside. SFC ridge builds into the Grt Lks Tue
night...sliding into the the OH vly by Wed.

2%

.LONG TERM: (Wednesday thru Sunday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Upper lvl ridge axis passes Wed. A decent short wave tracks
across the nthrn CONUS Wed night/Thu with a general weakness in
the H500 heights extending SW into another short wave coming
onshore across CA Wed night. These two features will combine to
produce a prd of wet weather for the region.

Sfc ridge axis passes Wed mrng allowing return flow to begin by Wed
aftn. The first short wave will lift an area of low pressure from
the Dakotas into sthrn Canada Wed mrng into Wed evng. This will push
a cold front into the Midwest Wed aftn. Winds should strengthen and
become gusty by aftn as the pressure gradient increases in advance
of the cold front. The front will slowly slide SE Wed night and Thu.
The GFS is faster with the initial push of the bndry bringing it into
the nthrn FA Wed night while the ECMWF waits until Thu. This time
the Gulf will be open for business allowing sufficient moisture for
the system to work with with. Precip chances begin as early as Wed
aftn...mainly across MO with better chances across NE MO after
midnight Wed night. Precip chances increase from NW to SE on Thu as
the front sags south. The bndry is fcst to stall along or just north
of the AR/MO border Thu night as an area of low pressure dvlps
across the sthrn Pains Thu night in response to the second short
wave. The bndry is fcst to remain nearly stnry thru Fri until the
low passes Fri PM as it rides NE along the front into the OH vly by
Fri night keeping precip chances going for areas mainly along and
south of I70. Nthrn portions of the FA may only have one shot at
precip with FROPA with the main area of precip remaining along and
south of I70 Thu night thru Fri night. Stay tuned though as the
eventual position of where the bndry stalls will determine nthrn
extent of the precip.

Saturday through Sunday

High pressure builds into the cntrl CONUS for the wknd producing dry
conditions and seasonal temps.

2%

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Showers have pushed est of the area in advance of a cold front.
Pre-frontal trof has moved through producing a west wind with a
shift to the northwest coming this evening. Temp and dew point
spreads look to stay large enough to prevent fog, but will watch
closely given the light rain that fell at some locations. Some
mid clouds for a couple of hours then a clear sky. Wind shifts
back to the southwest Monday morning with continued VFR.

Specifics for KSTL: Gradual shift to a northwest wind, then
quickly back to southwest Monday morning. VFR through Monday.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 300803
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
303 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

NW flow in place into Tue with upper lvl ridging beginning to
build in by Tuesday night. Weak short wave embedded in the NW flow
fcst to pass well NE of the FA Mon night into Tue. SFC ridge will
pass from the mid-MS vly into the TN vly today allowing winds to
become SW by this evng which will make a warmer night. An area of
low pressure assoc with the aforementioned short wave will drag a
weak cold front thru the CWA Tue. Should be an AM FROPA across the
nthrn CWA tempering the temp rise somewhat with NW winds and weak
CAA drng the aftn....though temps should still warm above avg with
highs near 70. South of I70...a good deal of sunshine and a longer
prd of SW winds should allow temps to rise well into the 70s.
Previous system from Sun has scoured out most of the available
moisture. Moisture return should be negligible due to limited
duration of return flow and sfc ridge across the Deep South
effectively closing the Gulf for business...so FROPA should be
dry. Removed slight chance PoPs across the far sthrn portion of
the CWA for Tue PM. Moisture appears to be limited and quite
shallow. Also...front settles along the AR/MO border which is
where there is marginally better moisture and hence any SHRA
activity should reside. SFC ridge builds into the Grt Lks Tue
night...sliding into the the OH vly by Wed.

2%

.LONG TERM: (Wednesday thru Sunday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Upper lvl ridge axis passes Wed. A decent short wave tracks
across the nthrn CONUS Wed night/Thu with a general weakness in
the H500 heights extending SW into another short wave coming
onshore across CA Wed night. These two features will combine to
produce a prd of wet weather for the region.

Sfc ridge axis passes Wed mrng allowing return flow to begin by Wed
aftn. The first short wave will lift an area of low pressure from
the Dakotas into sthrn Canada Wed mrng into Wed evng. This will push
a cold front into the Midwest Wed aftn. Winds should strengthen and
become gusty by aftn as the pressure gradient increases in advance
of the cold front. The front will slowly slide SE Wed night and Thu.
The GFS is faster with the initial push of the bndry bringing it into
the nthrn FA Wed night while the ECMWF waits until Thu. This time
the Gulf will be open for business allowing sufficient moisture for
the system to work with with. Precip chances begin as early as Wed
aftn...mainly across MO with better chances across NE MO after
midnight Wed night. Precip chances increase from NW to SE on Thu as
the front sags south. The bndry is fcst to stall along or just north
of the AR/MO border Thu night as an area of low pressure dvlps
across the sthrn Pains Thu night in response to the second short
wave. The bndry is fcst to remain nearly stnry thru Fri until the
low passes Fri PM as it rides NE along the front into the OH vly by
Fri night keeping precip chances going for areas mainly along and
south of I70. Nthrn portions of the FA may only have one shot at
precip with FROPA with the main area of precip remaining along and
south of I70 Thu night thru Fri night. Stay tuned though as the
eventual position of where the bndry stalls will determine nthrn
extent of the precip.

Saturday through Sunday

High pressure builds into the cntrl CONUS for the wknd producing dry
conditions and seasonal temps.

2%

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Showers have pushed est of the area in advance of a cold front.
Pre-frontal trof has moved through producing a west wind with a
shift to the northwest coming this evening. Temp and dew point
spreads look to stay large enough to prevent fog, but will watch
closely given the light rain that fell at some locations. Some
mid clouds for a couple of hours then a clear sky. Wind shifts
back to the southwest Monday morning with continued VFR.

Specifics for KSTL: Gradual shift to a northwest wind, then
quickly back to southwest Monday morning. VFR through Monday.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 300803
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
303 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

NW flow in place into Tue with upper lvl ridging beginning to
build in by Tuesday night. Weak short wave embedded in the NW flow
fcst to pass well NE of the FA Mon night into Tue. SFC ridge will
pass from the mid-MS vly into the TN vly today allowing winds to
become SW by this evng which will make a warmer night. An area of
low pressure assoc with the aforementioned short wave will drag a
weak cold front thru the CWA Tue. Should be an AM FROPA across the
nthrn CWA tempering the temp rise somewhat with NW winds and weak
CAA drng the aftn....though temps should still warm above avg with
highs near 70. South of I70...a good deal of sunshine and a longer
prd of SW winds should allow temps to rise well into the 70s.
Previous system from Sun has scoured out most of the available
moisture. Moisture return should be negligible due to limited
duration of return flow and sfc ridge across the Deep South
effectively closing the Gulf for business...so FROPA should be
dry. Removed slight chance PoPs across the far sthrn portion of
the CWA for Tue PM. Moisture appears to be limited and quite
shallow. Also...front settles along the AR/MO border which is
where there is marginally better moisture and hence any SHRA
activity should reside. SFC ridge builds into the Grt Lks Tue
night...sliding into the the OH vly by Wed.

2%

.LONG TERM: (Wednesday thru Sunday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Upper lvl ridge axis passes Wed. A decent short wave tracks
across the nthrn CONUS Wed night/Thu with a general weakness in
the H500 heights extending SW into another short wave coming
onshore across CA Wed night. These two features will combine to
produce a prd of wet weather for the region.

Sfc ridge axis passes Wed mrng allowing return flow to begin by Wed
aftn. The first short wave will lift an area of low pressure from
the Dakotas into sthrn Canada Wed mrng into Wed evng. This will push
a cold front into the Midwest Wed aftn. Winds should strengthen and
become gusty by aftn as the pressure gradient increases in advance
of the cold front. The front will slowly slide SE Wed night and Thu.
The GFS is faster with the initial push of the bndry bringing it into
the nthrn FA Wed night while the ECMWF waits until Thu. This time
the Gulf will be open for business allowing sufficient moisture for
the system to work with with. Precip chances begin as early as Wed
aftn...mainly across MO with better chances across NE MO after
midnight Wed night. Precip chances increase from NW to SE on Thu as
the front sags south. The bndry is fcst to stall along or just north
of the AR/MO border Thu night as an area of low pressure dvlps
across the sthrn Pains Thu night in response to the second short
wave. The bndry is fcst to remain nearly stnry thru Fri until the
low passes Fri PM as it rides NE along the front into the OH vly by
Fri night keeping precip chances going for areas mainly along and
south of I70. Nthrn portions of the FA may only have one shot at
precip with FROPA with the main area of precip remaining along and
south of I70 Thu night thru Fri night. Stay tuned though as the
eventual position of where the bndry stalls will determine nthrn
extent of the precip.

Saturday through Sunday

High pressure builds into the cntrl CONUS for the wknd producing dry
conditions and seasonal temps.

2%

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Showers have pushed est of the area in advance of a cold front.
Pre-frontal trof has moved through producing a west wind with a
shift to the northwest coming this evening. Temp and dew point
spreads look to stay large enough to prevent fog, but will watch
closely given the light rain that fell at some locations. Some
mid clouds for a couple of hours then a clear sky. Wind shifts
back to the southwest Monday morning with continued VFR.

Specifics for KSTL: Gradual shift to a northwest wind, then
quickly back to southwest Monday morning. VFR through Monday.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 300743
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
243 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

...Sunny...Warmer...and Spring-like Today...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A surface high is currently over southeastern Kansas this morning
and moving to the southeast. Skies were clear and temperatures
were seasonably cool this morning in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
A light southerly breeze will return today under sunny skies which
will help boost temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A
gorgeous day is in the forecast today followed by a pleasant night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging and height rises mean warmer temperatures for
Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak wind shift boundary may move through
on Tuesday with a few more clouds around but no precip is expected
or remain to our south. Temperatures will be in the middle to
upper 70s on Tuesday and maybe reaching near 80 by Wednesday.

The models are in good agreement with the next storm system
and have slowed it down somewhat beginning to affect the area very
late Wednesday night into Thursday. It appears the front may slow
down or briefly stall on Thursday and Thursday night across the
area as a wave of low pressure develops along it. There will be
a good chance of thunderstorms and some could be on the strong
side. SPC has most of the area highlighted in a slight risk for
severe weather on Thursday. Will keep an eye on
trends...atmospheric ingredients...and timing for some severe weather
around the Thursday time frame.

We could see a couple rounds of thunderstorms Thursday into early
Friday before this system finally kicks out of the area late
Friday. Cooler and drier weather return behind the front for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Mid level clouds pushed southeast of the area this evening as the
upper level trough axis has shifted into the region. Winds have
generally become light and should remain so overnight. A southeast
to south wind will develop Monday morning as surface ridge shifts
to our southeast and will continue through the day with VFR SKC
conditions expected.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 300743
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
243 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

...Sunny...Warmer...and Spring-like Today...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A surface high is currently over southeastern Kansas this morning
and moving to the southeast. Skies were clear and temperatures
were seasonably cool this morning in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
A light southerly breeze will return today under sunny skies which
will help boost temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A
gorgeous day is in the forecast today followed by a pleasant night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging and height rises mean warmer temperatures for
Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak wind shift boundary may move through
on Tuesday with a few more clouds around but no precip is expected
or remain to our south. Temperatures will be in the middle to
upper 70s on Tuesday and maybe reaching near 80 by Wednesday.

The models are in good agreement with the next storm system
and have slowed it down somewhat beginning to affect the area very
late Wednesday night into Thursday. It appears the front may slow
down or briefly stall on Thursday and Thursday night across the
area as a wave of low pressure develops along it. There will be
a good chance of thunderstorms and some could be on the strong
side. SPC has most of the area highlighted in a slight risk for
severe weather on Thursday. Will keep an eye on
trends...atmospheric ingredients...and timing for some severe weather
around the Thursday time frame.

We could see a couple rounds of thunderstorms Thursday into early
Friday before this system finally kicks out of the area late
Friday. Cooler and drier weather return behind the front for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Mid level clouds pushed southeast of the area this evening as the
upper level trough axis has shifted into the region. Winds have
generally become light and should remain so overnight. A southeast
to south wind will develop Monday morning as surface ridge shifts
to our southeast and will continue through the day with VFR SKC
conditions expected.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 300743
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
243 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

...Sunny...Warmer...and Spring-like Today...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A surface high is currently over southeastern Kansas this morning
and moving to the southeast. Skies were clear and temperatures
were seasonably cool this morning in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
A light southerly breeze will return today under sunny skies which
will help boost temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A
gorgeous day is in the forecast today followed by a pleasant night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging and height rises mean warmer temperatures for
Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak wind shift boundary may move through
on Tuesday with a few more clouds around but no precip is expected
or remain to our south. Temperatures will be in the middle to
upper 70s on Tuesday and maybe reaching near 80 by Wednesday.

The models are in good agreement with the next storm system
and have slowed it down somewhat beginning to affect the area very
late Wednesday night into Thursday. It appears the front may slow
down or briefly stall on Thursday and Thursday night across the
area as a wave of low pressure develops along it. There will be
a good chance of thunderstorms and some could be on the strong
side. SPC has most of the area highlighted in a slight risk for
severe weather on Thursday. Will keep an eye on
trends...atmospheric ingredients...and timing for some severe weather
around the Thursday time frame.

We could see a couple rounds of thunderstorms Thursday into early
Friday before this system finally kicks out of the area late
Friday. Cooler and drier weather return behind the front for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Mid level clouds pushed southeast of the area this evening as the
upper level trough axis has shifted into the region. Winds have
generally become light and should remain so overnight. A southeast
to south wind will develop Monday morning as surface ridge shifts
to our southeast and will continue through the day with VFR SKC
conditions expected.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 300743
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
243 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

...Sunny...Warmer...and Spring-like Today...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A surface high is currently over southeastern Kansas this morning
and moving to the southeast. Skies were clear and temperatures
were seasonably cool this morning in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
A light southerly breeze will return today under sunny skies which
will help boost temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A
gorgeous day is in the forecast today followed by a pleasant night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging and height rises mean warmer temperatures for
Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak wind shift boundary may move through
on Tuesday with a few more clouds around but no precip is expected
or remain to our south. Temperatures will be in the middle to
upper 70s on Tuesday and maybe reaching near 80 by Wednesday.

The models are in good agreement with the next storm system
and have slowed it down somewhat beginning to affect the area very
late Wednesday night into Thursday. It appears the front may slow
down or briefly stall on Thursday and Thursday night across the
area as a wave of low pressure develops along it. There will be
a good chance of thunderstorms and some could be on the strong
side. SPC has most of the area highlighted in a slight risk for
severe weather on Thursday. Will keep an eye on
trends...atmospheric ingredients...and timing for some severe weather
around the Thursday time frame.

We could see a couple rounds of thunderstorms Thursday into early
Friday before this system finally kicks out of the area late
Friday. Cooler and drier weather return behind the front for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Mid level clouds pushed southeast of the area this evening as the
upper level trough axis has shifted into the region. Winds have
generally become light and should remain so overnight. A southeast
to south wind will develop Monday morning as surface ridge shifts
to our southeast and will continue through the day with VFR SKC
conditions expected.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 300743
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
243 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

...Sunny...Warmer...and Spring-like Today...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A surface high is currently over southeastern Kansas this morning
and moving to the southeast. Skies were clear and temperatures
were seasonably cool this morning in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
A light southerly breeze will return today under sunny skies which
will help boost temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A
gorgeous day is in the forecast today followed by a pleasant night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging and height rises mean warmer temperatures for
Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak wind shift boundary may move through
on Tuesday with a few more clouds around but no precip is expected
or remain to our south. Temperatures will be in the middle to
upper 70s on Tuesday and maybe reaching near 80 by Wednesday.

The models are in good agreement with the next storm system
and have slowed it down somewhat beginning to affect the area very
late Wednesday night into Thursday. It appears the front may slow
down or briefly stall on Thursday and Thursday night across the
area as a wave of low pressure develops along it. There will be
a good chance of thunderstorms and some could be on the strong
side. SPC has most of the area highlighted in a slight risk for
severe weather on Thursday. Will keep an eye on
trends...atmospheric ingredients...and timing for some severe weather
around the Thursday time frame.

We could see a couple rounds of thunderstorms Thursday into early
Friday before this system finally kicks out of the area late
Friday. Cooler and drier weather return behind the front for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Mid level clouds pushed southeast of the area this evening as the
upper level trough axis has shifted into the region. Winds have
generally become light and should remain so overnight. A southeast
to south wind will develop Monday morning as surface ridge shifts
to our southeast and will continue through the day with VFR SKC
conditions expected.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 300743
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
243 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

...Sunny...Warmer...and Spring-like Today...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A surface high is currently over southeastern Kansas this morning
and moving to the southeast. Skies were clear and temperatures
were seasonably cool this morning in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
A light southerly breeze will return today under sunny skies which
will help boost temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A
gorgeous day is in the forecast today followed by a pleasant night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Upper level ridging and height rises mean warmer temperatures for
Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak wind shift boundary may move through
on Tuesday with a few more clouds around but no precip is expected
or remain to our south. Temperatures will be in the middle to
upper 70s on Tuesday and maybe reaching near 80 by Wednesday.

The models are in good agreement with the next storm system
and have slowed it down somewhat beginning to affect the area very
late Wednesday night into Thursday. It appears the front may slow
down or briefly stall on Thursday and Thursday night across the
area as a wave of low pressure develops along it. There will be
a good chance of thunderstorms and some could be on the strong
side. SPC has most of the area highlighted in a slight risk for
severe weather on Thursday. Will keep an eye on
trends...atmospheric ingredients...and timing for some severe weather
around the Thursday time frame.

We could see a couple rounds of thunderstorms Thursday into early
Friday before this system finally kicks out of the area late
Friday. Cooler and drier weather return behind the front for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Mid level clouds pushed southeast of the area this evening as the
upper level trough axis has shifted into the region. Winds have
generally become light and should remain so overnight. A southeast
to south wind will develop Monday morning as surface ridge shifts
to our southeast and will continue through the day with VFR SKC
conditions expected.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KEAX 300458
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1158 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Tonight through Tuesday: Northwest flow aloft will prevail through
the period. At the surface, high pressure will move through
overnight, with the current gusty wind speeds (especially over NW MO)
relaxing around sunset. Skies will clear later this evening, and
with the weaker wind speeds and weak cold air advection behind the
cold front, lows tonight will fall into the 30s. Dry and warm weather
are expected to start the work week with no discernible upper waves
noted to move through the area. Afternoon temperatures will be in the
60s and 70s each day.

Wednesday/Thursday Morning: The model trend to delay the onset of
precipitation continues with the latest runs. In fact, much of
Wednesday looks to be dry and warm, with highs reaching into the
middle to upper 70s. Moisture will also steadily increase as a warm
front moves northward during the day in advance of the next system
moving through the Northern/Central Plains, with dewpoints well into
the 50s. Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the
afternoon hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This
convection will develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually
reaching the northwest portions of the forecast area around/shortly
after sunset. Instability will gradually decrease with the nocturnal
arrival of the convection, with convection potentially experiencing
a weakening trend as it moves through the CWA. Still, with moderate
speed shear and modest instability, there is some potential for a
few strong storms rooted near/along the surface front. The best
chance for precipitation will occur Wednesday night through early
Thursday morning with the passage of the front, when one-quarter to
one-half inch will be common with higher amounts in the most robust
thunderstorm activity.

Thursday and beyond: The specifics remain difficult in this forecast
package with modest model spread and unknown convective evolution
from Wed nights activity. Rain will eventually push south of the
forecast area during the day Thursday as the surface front stalls
near the AR/MO border. The next upper wave will move through Thu
night into Friday, giving another chance for rainfall north of the
surface warm front across our area. A cooler day is expected on
Friday, with a return to near normal temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR at all the terminals for the next 24 hours. Only issues to watch
will be wind gusts this afternoon as southerly winds get a little
gusty.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 300458
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1158 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Tonight through Tuesday: Northwest flow aloft will prevail through
the period. At the surface, high pressure will move through
overnight, with the current gusty wind speeds (especially over NW MO)
relaxing around sunset. Skies will clear later this evening, and
with the weaker wind speeds and weak cold air advection behind the
cold front, lows tonight will fall into the 30s. Dry and warm weather
are expected to start the work week with no discernible upper waves
noted to move through the area. Afternoon temperatures will be in the
60s and 70s each day.

Wednesday/Thursday Morning: The model trend to delay the onset of
precipitation continues with the latest runs. In fact, much of
Wednesday looks to be dry and warm, with highs reaching into the
middle to upper 70s. Moisture will also steadily increase as a warm
front moves northward during the day in advance of the next system
moving through the Northern/Central Plains, with dewpoints well into
the 50s. Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the
afternoon hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This
convection will develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually
reaching the northwest portions of the forecast area around/shortly
after sunset. Instability will gradually decrease with the nocturnal
arrival of the convection, with convection potentially experiencing
a weakening trend as it moves through the CWA. Still, with moderate
speed shear and modest instability, there is some potential for a
few strong storms rooted near/along the surface front. The best
chance for precipitation will occur Wednesday night through early
Thursday morning with the passage of the front, when one-quarter to
one-half inch will be common with higher amounts in the most robust
thunderstorm activity.

Thursday and beyond: The specifics remain difficult in this forecast
package with modest model spread and unknown convective evolution
from Wed nights activity. Rain will eventually push south of the
forecast area during the day Thursday as the surface front stalls
near the AR/MO border. The next upper wave will move through Thu
night into Friday, giving another chance for rainfall north of the
surface warm front across our area. A cooler day is expected on
Friday, with a return to near normal temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR at all the terminals for the next 24 hours. Only issues to watch
will be wind gusts this afternoon as southerly winds get a little
gusty.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 300458
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1158 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Tonight through Tuesday: Northwest flow aloft will prevail through
the period. At the surface, high pressure will move through
overnight, with the current gusty wind speeds (especially over NW MO)
relaxing around sunset. Skies will clear later this evening, and
with the weaker wind speeds and weak cold air advection behind the
cold front, lows tonight will fall into the 30s. Dry and warm weather
are expected to start the work week with no discernible upper waves
noted to move through the area. Afternoon temperatures will be in the
60s and 70s each day.

Wednesday/Thursday Morning: The model trend to delay the onset of
precipitation continues with the latest runs. In fact, much of
Wednesday looks to be dry and warm, with highs reaching into the
middle to upper 70s. Moisture will also steadily increase as a warm
front moves northward during the day in advance of the next system
moving through the Northern/Central Plains, with dewpoints well into
the 50s. Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the
afternoon hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This
convection will develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually
reaching the northwest portions of the forecast area around/shortly
after sunset. Instability will gradually decrease with the nocturnal
arrival of the convection, with convection potentially experiencing
a weakening trend as it moves through the CWA. Still, with moderate
speed shear and modest instability, there is some potential for a
few strong storms rooted near/along the surface front. The best
chance for precipitation will occur Wednesday night through early
Thursday morning with the passage of the front, when one-quarter to
one-half inch will be common with higher amounts in the most robust
thunderstorm activity.

Thursday and beyond: The specifics remain difficult in this forecast
package with modest model spread and unknown convective evolution
from Wed nights activity. Rain will eventually push south of the
forecast area during the day Thursday as the surface front stalls
near the AR/MO border. The next upper wave will move through Thu
night into Friday, giving another chance for rainfall north of the
surface warm front across our area. A cooler day is expected on
Friday, with a return to near normal temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR at all the terminals for the next 24 hours. Only issues to watch
will be wind gusts this afternoon as southerly winds get a little
gusty.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 300458
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1158 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Tonight through Tuesday: Northwest flow aloft will prevail through
the period. At the surface, high pressure will move through
overnight, with the current gusty wind speeds (especially over NW MO)
relaxing around sunset. Skies will clear later this evening, and
with the weaker wind speeds and weak cold air advection behind the
cold front, lows tonight will fall into the 30s. Dry and warm weather
are expected to start the work week with no discernible upper waves
noted to move through the area. Afternoon temperatures will be in the
60s and 70s each day.

Wednesday/Thursday Morning: The model trend to delay the onset of
precipitation continues with the latest runs. In fact, much of
Wednesday looks to be dry and warm, with highs reaching into the
middle to upper 70s. Moisture will also steadily increase as a warm
front moves northward during the day in advance of the next system
moving through the Northern/Central Plains, with dewpoints well into
the 50s. Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the
afternoon hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This
convection will develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually
reaching the northwest portions of the forecast area around/shortly
after sunset. Instability will gradually decrease with the nocturnal
arrival of the convection, with convection potentially experiencing
a weakening trend as it moves through the CWA. Still, with moderate
speed shear and modest instability, there is some potential for a
few strong storms rooted near/along the surface front. The best
chance for precipitation will occur Wednesday night through early
Thursday morning with the passage of the front, when one-quarter to
one-half inch will be common with higher amounts in the most robust
thunderstorm activity.

Thursday and beyond: The specifics remain difficult in this forecast
package with modest model spread and unknown convective evolution
from Wed nights activity. Rain will eventually push south of the
forecast area during the day Thursday as the surface front stalls
near the AR/MO border. The next upper wave will move through Thu
night into Friday, giving another chance for rainfall north of the
surface warm front across our area. A cooler day is expected on
Friday, with a return to near normal temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR at all the terminals for the next 24 hours. Only issues to watch
will be wind gusts this afternoon as southerly winds get a little
gusty.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 300458
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1158 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Tonight through Tuesday: Northwest flow aloft will prevail through
the period. At the surface, high pressure will move through
overnight, with the current gusty wind speeds (especially over NW MO)
relaxing around sunset. Skies will clear later this evening, and
with the weaker wind speeds and weak cold air advection behind the
cold front, lows tonight will fall into the 30s. Dry and warm weather
are expected to start the work week with no discernible upper waves
noted to move through the area. Afternoon temperatures will be in the
60s and 70s each day.

Wednesday/Thursday Morning: The model trend to delay the onset of
precipitation continues with the latest runs. In fact, much of
Wednesday looks to be dry and warm, with highs reaching into the
middle to upper 70s. Moisture will also steadily increase as a warm
front moves northward during the day in advance of the next system
moving through the Northern/Central Plains, with dewpoints well into
the 50s. Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the
afternoon hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This
convection will develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually
reaching the northwest portions of the forecast area around/shortly
after sunset. Instability will gradually decrease with the nocturnal
arrival of the convection, with convection potentially experiencing
a weakening trend as it moves through the CWA. Still, with moderate
speed shear and modest instability, there is some potential for a
few strong storms rooted near/along the surface front. The best
chance for precipitation will occur Wednesday night through early
Thursday morning with the passage of the front, when one-quarter to
one-half inch will be common with higher amounts in the most robust
thunderstorm activity.

Thursday and beyond: The specifics remain difficult in this forecast
package with modest model spread and unknown convective evolution
from Wed nights activity. Rain will eventually push south of the
forecast area during the day Thursday as the surface front stalls
near the AR/MO border. The next upper wave will move through Thu
night into Friday, giving another chance for rainfall north of the
surface warm front across our area. A cooler day is expected on
Friday, with a return to near normal temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR at all the terminals for the next 24 hours. Only issues to watch
will be wind gusts this afternoon as southerly winds get a little
gusty.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 300458
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1158 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Tonight through Tuesday: Northwest flow aloft will prevail through
the period. At the surface, high pressure will move through
overnight, with the current gusty wind speeds (especially over NW MO)
relaxing around sunset. Skies will clear later this evening, and
with the weaker wind speeds and weak cold air advection behind the
cold front, lows tonight will fall into the 30s. Dry and warm weather
are expected to start the work week with no discernible upper waves
noted to move through the area. Afternoon temperatures will be in the
60s and 70s each day.

Wednesday/Thursday Morning: The model trend to delay the onset of
precipitation continues with the latest runs. In fact, much of
Wednesday looks to be dry and warm, with highs reaching into the
middle to upper 70s. Moisture will also steadily increase as a warm
front moves northward during the day in advance of the next system
moving through the Northern/Central Plains, with dewpoints well into
the 50s. Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the
afternoon hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This
convection will develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually
reaching the northwest portions of the forecast area around/shortly
after sunset. Instability will gradually decrease with the nocturnal
arrival of the convection, with convection potentially experiencing
a weakening trend as it moves through the CWA. Still, with moderate
speed shear and modest instability, there is some potential for a
few strong storms rooted near/along the surface front. The best
chance for precipitation will occur Wednesday night through early
Thursday morning with the passage of the front, when one-quarter to
one-half inch will be common with higher amounts in the most robust
thunderstorm activity.

Thursday and beyond: The specifics remain difficult in this forecast
package with modest model spread and unknown convective evolution
from Wed nights activity. Rain will eventually push south of the
forecast area during the day Thursday as the surface front stalls
near the AR/MO border. The next upper wave will move through Thu
night into Friday, giving another chance for rainfall north of the
surface warm front across our area. A cooler day is expected on
Friday, with a return to near normal temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR at all the terminals for the next 24 hours. Only issues to watch
will be wind gusts this afternoon as southerly winds get a little
gusty.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 300458
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1158 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Tonight through Tuesday: Northwest flow aloft will prevail through
the period. At the surface, high pressure will move through
overnight, with the current gusty wind speeds (especially over NW MO)
relaxing around sunset. Skies will clear later this evening, and
with the weaker wind speeds and weak cold air advection behind the
cold front, lows tonight will fall into the 30s. Dry and warm weather
are expected to start the work week with no discernible upper waves
noted to move through the area. Afternoon temperatures will be in the
60s and 70s each day.

Wednesday/Thursday Morning: The model trend to delay the onset of
precipitation continues with the latest runs. In fact, much of
Wednesday looks to be dry and warm, with highs reaching into the
middle to upper 70s. Moisture will also steadily increase as a warm
front moves northward during the day in advance of the next system
moving through the Northern/Central Plains, with dewpoints well into
the 50s. Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the
afternoon hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This
convection will develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually
reaching the northwest portions of the forecast area around/shortly
after sunset. Instability will gradually decrease with the nocturnal
arrival of the convection, with convection potentially experiencing
a weakening trend as it moves through the CWA. Still, with moderate
speed shear and modest instability, there is some potential for a
few strong storms rooted near/along the surface front. The best
chance for precipitation will occur Wednesday night through early
Thursday morning with the passage of the front, when one-quarter to
one-half inch will be common with higher amounts in the most robust
thunderstorm activity.

Thursday and beyond: The specifics remain difficult in this forecast
package with modest model spread and unknown convective evolution
from Wed nights activity. Rain will eventually push south of the
forecast area during the day Thursday as the surface front stalls
near the AR/MO border. The next upper wave will move through Thu
night into Friday, giving another chance for rainfall north of the
surface warm front across our area. A cooler day is expected on
Friday, with a return to near normal temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR at all the terminals for the next 24 hours. Only issues to watch
will be wind gusts this afternoon as southerly winds get a little
gusty.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 300458
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1158 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Tonight through Tuesday: Northwest flow aloft will prevail through
the period. At the surface, high pressure will move through
overnight, with the current gusty wind speeds (especially over NW MO)
relaxing around sunset. Skies will clear later this evening, and
with the weaker wind speeds and weak cold air advection behind the
cold front, lows tonight will fall into the 30s. Dry and warm weather
are expected to start the work week with no discernible upper waves
noted to move through the area. Afternoon temperatures will be in the
60s and 70s each day.

Wednesday/Thursday Morning: The model trend to delay the onset of
precipitation continues with the latest runs. In fact, much of
Wednesday looks to be dry and warm, with highs reaching into the
middle to upper 70s. Moisture will also steadily increase as a warm
front moves northward during the day in advance of the next system
moving through the Northern/Central Plains, with dewpoints well into
the 50s. Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the
afternoon hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This
convection will develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually
reaching the northwest portions of the forecast area around/shortly
after sunset. Instability will gradually decrease with the nocturnal
arrival of the convection, with convection potentially experiencing
a weakening trend as it moves through the CWA. Still, with moderate
speed shear and modest instability, there is some potential for a
few strong storms rooted near/along the surface front. The best
chance for precipitation will occur Wednesday night through early
Thursday morning with the passage of the front, when one-quarter to
one-half inch will be common with higher amounts in the most robust
thunderstorm activity.

Thursday and beyond: The specifics remain difficult in this forecast
package with modest model spread and unknown convective evolution
from Wed nights activity. Rain will eventually push south of the
forecast area during the day Thursday as the surface front stalls
near the AR/MO border. The next upper wave will move through Thu
night into Friday, giving another chance for rainfall north of the
surface warm front across our area. A cooler day is expected on
Friday, with a return to near normal temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR at all the terminals for the next 24 hours. Only issues to watch
will be wind gusts this afternoon as southerly winds get a little
gusty.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KSGF 300427
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1127 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Virga/sprinkles/very light showers were occurring with the an
approaching shortwave extending from the western Great Lakes
south into KS. Expect the associated sfc trough to pass through
the area early tonight. The boundary will encounter better
moisture after it moves through the cwfa with increased
convection, but this will take place south of our area tonight.

Sfc high pressure will move in behind the front, becoming centered
over the area by daybreak Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Warm and dry weather is expected Monday as the sfc high moves e-se
of the area and a modest south return flow develops. Another sfc
trough will wash out over the area Tuesday as upper level ridging
moves into the Plains with continued warm temperatures.

A more active pattern looks to evolve during the mid/late week
period. A strong shortwave is expected to move into the western
CONUS Wednesday pushing a sfc front out into the Plains. Not bad
agreement between global models with the GFS and GEM a bit faster
with the front versus the ECMWF as it moves into the area late
Wednesday night and Thursday. Large scale triggers for strong
convection are present like typical early Spring deep layer shear,
steep mid level lapse rate with an eml/cap, but diurnal timing of
the front, and extent of upstream convection on Wednesday and
potential downstream interference with instability due to
weakening convective "debris" is in some question this far out.
SPC has a 15% outlook for Thu with the fropa and this seems like a
good conservative approach for now until details become better
focused.

Cooler air will move into the region Fri with decreasing showers
as sfc high pressure builds in behind the front. Dry weather with
a warming trend is then expected by the end of log term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Mid level clouds pushed southeast of the area this evening as the
upper level trough axis has shifted into the region. Winds have
generally become light and should remain so overnight. A southeast
to south wind will develop Monday morning as surface ridge shifts
to our southeast and will continue through the day with VFR SKC
conditions expected.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 300427
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1127 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Virga/sprinkles/very light showers were occurring with the an
approaching shortwave extending from the western Great Lakes
south into KS. Expect the associated sfc trough to pass through
the area early tonight. The boundary will encounter better
moisture after it moves through the cwfa with increased
convection, but this will take place south of our area tonight.

Sfc high pressure will move in behind the front, becoming centered
over the area by daybreak Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Warm and dry weather is expected Monday as the sfc high moves e-se
of the area and a modest south return flow develops. Another sfc
trough will wash out over the area Tuesday as upper level ridging
moves into the Plains with continued warm temperatures.

A more active pattern looks to evolve during the mid/late week
period. A strong shortwave is expected to move into the western
CONUS Wednesday pushing a sfc front out into the Plains. Not bad
agreement between global models with the GFS and GEM a bit faster
with the front versus the ECMWF as it moves into the area late
Wednesday night and Thursday. Large scale triggers for strong
convection are present like typical early Spring deep layer shear,
steep mid level lapse rate with an eml/cap, but diurnal timing of
the front, and extent of upstream convection on Wednesday and
potential downstream interference with instability due to
weakening convective "debris" is in some question this far out.
SPC has a 15% outlook for Thu with the fropa and this seems like a
good conservative approach for now until details become better
focused.

Cooler air will move into the region Fri with decreasing showers
as sfc high pressure builds in behind the front. Dry weather with
a warming trend is then expected by the end of log term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Mid level clouds pushed southeast of the area this evening as the
upper level trough axis has shifted into the region. Winds have
generally become light and should remain so overnight. A southeast
to south wind will develop Monday morning as surface ridge shifts
to our southeast and will continue through the day with VFR SKC
conditions expected.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 300427
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1127 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Virga/sprinkles/very light showers were occurring with the an
approaching shortwave extending from the western Great Lakes
south into KS. Expect the associated sfc trough to pass through
the area early tonight. The boundary will encounter better
moisture after it moves through the cwfa with increased
convection, but this will take place south of our area tonight.

Sfc high pressure will move in behind the front, becoming centered
over the area by daybreak Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Warm and dry weather is expected Monday as the sfc high moves e-se
of the area and a modest south return flow develops. Another sfc
trough will wash out over the area Tuesday as upper level ridging
moves into the Plains with continued warm temperatures.

A more active pattern looks to evolve during the mid/late week
period. A strong shortwave is expected to move into the western
CONUS Wednesday pushing a sfc front out into the Plains. Not bad
agreement between global models with the GFS and GEM a bit faster
with the front versus the ECMWF as it moves into the area late
Wednesday night and Thursday. Large scale triggers for strong
convection are present like typical early Spring deep layer shear,
steep mid level lapse rate with an eml/cap, but diurnal timing of
the front, and extent of upstream convection on Wednesday and
potential downstream interference with instability due to
weakening convective "debris" is in some question this far out.
SPC has a 15% outlook for Thu with the fropa and this seems like a
good conservative approach for now until details become better
focused.

Cooler air will move into the region Fri with decreasing showers
as sfc high pressure builds in behind the front. Dry weather with
a warming trend is then expected by the end of log term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Mid level clouds pushed southeast of the area this evening as the
upper level trough axis has shifted into the region. Winds have
generally become light and should remain so overnight. A southeast
to south wind will develop Monday morning as surface ridge shifts
to our southeast and will continue through the day with VFR SKC
conditions expected.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 300427
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1127 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Virga/sprinkles/very light showers were occurring with the an
approaching shortwave extending from the western Great Lakes
south into KS. Expect the associated sfc trough to pass through
the area early tonight. The boundary will encounter better
moisture after it moves through the cwfa with increased
convection, but this will take place south of our area tonight.

Sfc high pressure will move in behind the front, becoming centered
over the area by daybreak Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Warm and dry weather is expected Monday as the sfc high moves e-se
of the area and a modest south return flow develops. Another sfc
trough will wash out over the area Tuesday as upper level ridging
moves into the Plains with continued warm temperatures.

A more active pattern looks to evolve during the mid/late week
period. A strong shortwave is expected to move into the western
CONUS Wednesday pushing a sfc front out into the Plains. Not bad
agreement between global models with the GFS and GEM a bit faster
with the front versus the ECMWF as it moves into the area late
Wednesday night and Thursday. Large scale triggers for strong
convection are present like typical early Spring deep layer shear,
steep mid level lapse rate with an eml/cap, but diurnal timing of
the front, and extent of upstream convection on Wednesday and
potential downstream interference with instability due to
weakening convective "debris" is in some question this far out.
SPC has a 15% outlook for Thu with the fropa and this seems like a
good conservative approach for now until details become better
focused.

Cooler air will move into the region Fri with decreasing showers
as sfc high pressure builds in behind the front. Dry weather with
a warming trend is then expected by the end of log term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Mid level clouds pushed southeast of the area this evening as the
upper level trough axis has shifted into the region. Winds have
generally become light and should remain so overnight. A southeast
to south wind will develop Monday morning as surface ridge shifts
to our southeast and will continue through the day with VFR SKC
conditions expected.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 300427
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1127 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Virga/sprinkles/very light showers were occurring with the an
approaching shortwave extending from the western Great Lakes
south into KS. Expect the associated sfc trough to pass through
the area early tonight. The boundary will encounter better
moisture after it moves through the cwfa with increased
convection, but this will take place south of our area tonight.

Sfc high pressure will move in behind the front, becoming centered
over the area by daybreak Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Warm and dry weather is expected Monday as the sfc high moves e-se
of the area and a modest south return flow develops. Another sfc
trough will wash out over the area Tuesday as upper level ridging
moves into the Plains with continued warm temperatures.

A more active pattern looks to evolve during the mid/late week
period. A strong shortwave is expected to move into the western
CONUS Wednesday pushing a sfc front out into the Plains. Not bad
agreement between global models with the GFS and GEM a bit faster
with the front versus the ECMWF as it moves into the area late
Wednesday night and Thursday. Large scale triggers for strong
convection are present like typical early Spring deep layer shear,
steep mid level lapse rate with an eml/cap, but diurnal timing of
the front, and extent of upstream convection on Wednesday and
potential downstream interference with instability due to
weakening convective "debris" is in some question this far out.
SPC has a 15% outlook for Thu with the fropa and this seems like a
good conservative approach for now until details become better
focused.

Cooler air will move into the region Fri with decreasing showers
as sfc high pressure builds in behind the front. Dry weather with
a warming trend is then expected by the end of log term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Mid level clouds pushed southeast of the area this evening as the
upper level trough axis has shifted into the region. Winds have
generally become light and should remain so overnight. A southeast
to south wind will develop Monday morning as surface ridge shifts
to our southeast and will continue through the day with VFR SKC
conditions expected.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 300427
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1127 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Virga/sprinkles/very light showers were occurring with the an
approaching shortwave extending from the western Great Lakes
south into KS. Expect the associated sfc trough to pass through
the area early tonight. The boundary will encounter better
moisture after it moves through the cwfa with increased
convection, but this will take place south of our area tonight.

Sfc high pressure will move in behind the front, becoming centered
over the area by daybreak Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Warm and dry weather is expected Monday as the sfc high moves e-se
of the area and a modest south return flow develops. Another sfc
trough will wash out over the area Tuesday as upper level ridging
moves into the Plains with continued warm temperatures.

A more active pattern looks to evolve during the mid/late week
period. A strong shortwave is expected to move into the western
CONUS Wednesday pushing a sfc front out into the Plains. Not bad
agreement between global models with the GFS and GEM a bit faster
with the front versus the ECMWF as it moves into the area late
Wednesday night and Thursday. Large scale triggers for strong
convection are present like typical early Spring deep layer shear,
steep mid level lapse rate with an eml/cap, but diurnal timing of
the front, and extent of upstream convection on Wednesday and
potential downstream interference with instability due to
weakening convective "debris" is in some question this far out.
SPC has a 15% outlook for Thu with the fropa and this seems like a
good conservative approach for now until details become better
focused.

Cooler air will move into the region Fri with decreasing showers
as sfc high pressure builds in behind the front. Dry weather with
a warming trend is then expected by the end of log term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Mid level clouds pushed southeast of the area this evening as the
upper level trough axis has shifted into the region. Winds have
generally become light and should remain so overnight. A southeast
to south wind will develop Monday morning as surface ridge shifts
to our southeast and will continue through the day with VFR SKC
conditions expected.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 300427
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1127 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Virga/sprinkles/very light showers were occurring with the an
approaching shortwave extending from the western Great Lakes
south into KS. Expect the associated sfc trough to pass through
the area early tonight. The boundary will encounter better
moisture after it moves through the cwfa with increased
convection, but this will take place south of our area tonight.

Sfc high pressure will move in behind the front, becoming centered
over the area by daybreak Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Warm and dry weather is expected Monday as the sfc high moves e-se
of the area and a modest south return flow develops. Another sfc
trough will wash out over the area Tuesday as upper level ridging
moves into the Plains with continued warm temperatures.

A more active pattern looks to evolve during the mid/late week
period. A strong shortwave is expected to move into the western
CONUS Wednesday pushing a sfc front out into the Plains. Not bad
agreement between global models with the GFS and GEM a bit faster
with the front versus the ECMWF as it moves into the area late
Wednesday night and Thursday. Large scale triggers for strong
convection are present like typical early Spring deep layer shear,
steep mid level lapse rate with an eml/cap, but diurnal timing of
the front, and extent of upstream convection on Wednesday and
potential downstream interference with instability due to
weakening convective "debris" is in some question this far out.
SPC has a 15% outlook for Thu with the fropa and this seems like a
good conservative approach for now until details become better
focused.

Cooler air will move into the region Fri with decreasing showers
as sfc high pressure builds in behind the front. Dry weather with
a warming trend is then expected by the end of log term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Mid level clouds pushed southeast of the area this evening as the
upper level trough axis has shifted into the region. Winds have
generally become light and should remain so overnight. A southeast
to south wind will develop Monday morning as surface ridge shifts
to our southeast and will continue through the day with VFR SKC
conditions expected.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 300427
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1127 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Virga/sprinkles/very light showers were occurring with the an
approaching shortwave extending from the western Great Lakes
south into KS. Expect the associated sfc trough to pass through
the area early tonight. The boundary will encounter better
moisture after it moves through the cwfa with increased
convection, but this will take place south of our area tonight.

Sfc high pressure will move in behind the front, becoming centered
over the area by daybreak Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Warm and dry weather is expected Monday as the sfc high moves e-se
of the area and a modest south return flow develops. Another sfc
trough will wash out over the area Tuesday as upper level ridging
moves into the Plains with continued warm temperatures.

A more active pattern looks to evolve during the mid/late week
period. A strong shortwave is expected to move into the western
CONUS Wednesday pushing a sfc front out into the Plains. Not bad
agreement between global models with the GFS and GEM a bit faster
with the front versus the ECMWF as it moves into the area late
Wednesday night and Thursday. Large scale triggers for strong
convection are present like typical early Spring deep layer shear,
steep mid level lapse rate with an eml/cap, but diurnal timing of
the front, and extent of upstream convection on Wednesday and
potential downstream interference with instability due to
weakening convective "debris" is in some question this far out.
SPC has a 15% outlook for Thu with the fropa and this seems like a
good conservative approach for now until details become better
focused.

Cooler air will move into the region Fri with decreasing showers
as sfc high pressure builds in behind the front. Dry weather with
a warming trend is then expected by the end of log term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Mid level clouds pushed southeast of the area this evening as the
upper level trough axis has shifted into the region. Winds have
generally become light and should remain so overnight. A southeast
to south wind will develop Monday morning as surface ridge shifts
to our southeast and will continue through the day with VFR SKC
conditions expected.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KEAX 292331
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
631 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Tonight through Tuesday: Northwest flow aloft will prevail through
the period. At the surface, high pressure will move through
overnight, with the current gusty wind speeds (especially over NW MO)
relaxing around sunset. Skies will clear later this evening, and
with the weaker wind speeds and weak cold air advection behind the
cold front, lows tonight will fall into the 30s. Dry and warm weather
are expected to start the work week with no discernible upper waves
noted to move through the area. Afternoon temperatures will be in the
60s and 70s each day.

Wednesday/Thursday Morning: The model trend to delay the onset of
precipitation continues with the latest runs. In fact, much of
Wednesday looks to be dry and warm, with highs reaching into the
middle to upper 70s. Moisture will also steadily increase as a warm
front moves northward during the day in advance of the next system
moving through the Northern/Central Plains, with dewpoints well into
the 50s. Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the
afternoon hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This
convection will develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually
reaching the northwest portions of the forecast area around/shortly
after sunset. Instability will gradually decrease with the nocturnal
arrival of the convection, with convection potentially experiencing
a weakening trend as it moves through the CWA. Still, with moderate
speed shear and modest instability, there is some potential for a
few strong storms rooted near/along the surface front. The best
chance for precipitation will occur Wednesday night through early
Thursday morning with the passage of the front, when one-quarter to
one-half inch will be common with higher amounts in the most robust
thunderstorm activity.

Thursday and beyond: The specifics remain difficult in this forecast
package with modest model spread and unknown convective evolution
from Wed nights activity. Rain will eventually push south of the
forecast area during the day Thursday as the surface front stalls
near the AR/MO border. The next upper wave will move through Thu
night into Friday, giving another chance for rainfall north of the
surface warm front across our area. A cooler day is expected on
Friday, with a return to near normal temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals over the next 24 hours.
Only issue to watch will be winds as the gusty northwest wind this
evening goes a bit light overnight as it backs to the southeast. This
southeast wind might be able to get a bit gusty Monday afternoon with
an increase in the regional pressure gradient and afternoon boundary
layer mixing.

&&



.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KEAX 292331
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
631 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Tonight through Tuesday: Northwest flow aloft will prevail through
the period. At the surface, high pressure will move through
overnight, with the current gusty wind speeds (especially over NW MO)
relaxing around sunset. Skies will clear later this evening, and
with the weaker wind speeds and weak cold air advection behind the
cold front, lows tonight will fall into the 30s. Dry and warm weather
are expected to start the work week with no discernible upper waves
noted to move through the area. Afternoon temperatures will be in the
60s and 70s each day.

Wednesday/Thursday Morning: The model trend to delay the onset of
precipitation continues with the latest runs. In fact, much of
Wednesday looks to be dry and warm, with highs reaching into the
middle to upper 70s. Moisture will also steadily increase as a warm
front moves northward during the day in advance of the next system
moving through the Northern/Central Plains, with dewpoints well into
the 50s. Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the
afternoon hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This
convection will develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually
reaching the northwest portions of the forecast area around/shortly
after sunset. Instability will gradually decrease with the nocturnal
arrival of the convection, with convection potentially experiencing
a weakening trend as it moves through the CWA. Still, with moderate
speed shear and modest instability, there is some potential for a
few strong storms rooted near/along the surface front. The best
chance for precipitation will occur Wednesday night through early
Thursday morning with the passage of the front, when one-quarter to
one-half inch will be common with higher amounts in the most robust
thunderstorm activity.

Thursday and beyond: The specifics remain difficult in this forecast
package with modest model spread and unknown convective evolution
from Wed nights activity. Rain will eventually push south of the
forecast area during the day Thursday as the surface front stalls
near the AR/MO border. The next upper wave will move through Thu
night into Friday, giving another chance for rainfall north of the
surface warm front across our area. A cooler day is expected on
Friday, with a return to near normal temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals over the next 24 hours.
Only issue to watch will be winds as the gusty northwest wind this
evening goes a bit light overnight as it backs to the southeast. This
southeast wind might be able to get a bit gusty Monday afternoon with
an increase in the regional pressure gradient and afternoon boundary
layer mixing.

&&



.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KLSX 292312
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
612 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Cold front now extending from north central Missouri into east
central Kansas will continue moving southeast this evening.  Front
should be through the forecast area by 04Z or shortly thereafter.
Strong warm advection and shortwave energy ahead of the front is
producing a band of showers extending from near KTAZ to KAIZ and
this band of showers will continue moving southeast through the
remainder of the afternoon, and should be mostly out of our forecast
area by 00Z.  Should see the sky clear behind the front with
overnight lows generally in the mid 30s to around 40.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Northwest upper level flow will prevail thru Tuesday across our
region, with mostly quiet wx, warm temps thanks to persistent SW
surface winds for much of the period, and a weak cold front dropping
thru late on Tuesday.

While it now looks like the better WAA for Monday night will be to
our northeast, moisture is expected to sufficiently rise by Tuesday
afternoon coupled with the presence of a surface cold front to
justify a small, slight chance PoP for parts of southeast MO, with
this continuing into early Tuesday evening.

Otherwise, temps should warm well on Monday, thanks to strengthening
SW winds and decent sunshine, with the higher MAV MOS values
preferred for max temps.  Decent westerly flow to carry into Tuesday
and should allow for another nice warm-up despite weak cold front
moving thru--with strong temp rises into the mid 70s still expected
for areas near and south of I-70.  Somewhat cooler values for areas
further to the north with an earlier FROPA and NW winds.

The front should sag enough to the south Tuesday night for much of
that period to be dry, but will buckle back in full force on
Wednesday as a warm front.  With a decent slug of moisture being
pulled up with this front, have expanded slight chance PoPs over a
larger area--mainly near and west of the MS river.  Good levels of
moisture for early April and a slowly southward moving cold front
will provide for persistent above climo rain chances Wednesday night
into Thursday.  Where the front ends up late Thursday is where it
probably will stall until Friday afternoon, resulting in additional
rain chances.  The frontal position is a bit more south than 24hrs
ago, and so will tend to focus the better rain chances, as it stands
now, for areas south of I-70.

Temps expected to return to below normal for next weekend following
this wet period as the cold front becomes unstuck and resumes its
push to the south.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Showers have pushed est of the area in advance of a cold front.
Pre-frontal trof has moved through producing a west wind with a
shift to the northwest coming this evening. Temp and dew point
spreads look to stay large enough to prevent fog, but will watch
closely given the light rain that fell at some locaitons. Some
mid clouds for a couple of hours then a clear sky. Wind shifts
back to the southwest Monday morning with continued VFR.

Specifics for KSTL: Gradual shift to a northwest wind, then
quickly back to southwest Monday morning. VFR through Monday.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 292312
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
612 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Cold front now extending from north central Missouri into east
central Kansas will continue moving southeast this evening.  Front
should be through the forecast area by 04Z or shortly thereafter.
Strong warm advection and shortwave energy ahead of the front is
producing a band of showers extending from near KTAZ to KAIZ and
this band of showers will continue moving southeast through the
remainder of the afternoon, and should be mostly out of our forecast
area by 00Z.  Should see the sky clear behind the front with
overnight lows generally in the mid 30s to around 40.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Northwest upper level flow will prevail thru Tuesday across our
region, with mostly quiet wx, warm temps thanks to persistent SW
surface winds for much of the period, and a weak cold front dropping
thru late on Tuesday.

While it now looks like the better WAA for Monday night will be to
our northeast, moisture is expected to sufficiently rise by Tuesday
afternoon coupled with the presence of a surface cold front to
justify a small, slight chance PoP for parts of southeast MO, with
this continuing into early Tuesday evening.

Otherwise, temps should warm well on Monday, thanks to strengthening
SW winds and decent sunshine, with the higher MAV MOS values
preferred for max temps.  Decent westerly flow to carry into Tuesday
and should allow for another nice warm-up despite weak cold front
moving thru--with strong temp rises into the mid 70s still expected
for areas near and south of I-70.  Somewhat cooler values for areas
further to the north with an earlier FROPA and NW winds.

The front should sag enough to the south Tuesday night for much of
that period to be dry, but will buckle back in full force on
Wednesday as a warm front.  With a decent slug of moisture being
pulled up with this front, have expanded slight chance PoPs over a
larger area--mainly near and west of the MS river.  Good levels of
moisture for early April and a slowly southward moving cold front
will provide for persistent above climo rain chances Wednesday night
into Thursday.  Where the front ends up late Thursday is where it
probably will stall until Friday afternoon, resulting in additional
rain chances.  The frontal position is a bit more south than 24hrs
ago, and so will tend to focus the better rain chances, as it stands
now, for areas south of I-70.

Temps expected to return to below normal for next weekend following
this wet period as the cold front becomes unstuck and resumes its
push to the south.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Showers have pushed est of the area in advance of a cold front.
Pre-frontal trof has moved through producing a west wind with a
shift to the northwest coming this evening. Temp and dew point
spreads look to stay large enough to prevent fog, but will watch
closely given the light rain that fell at some locaitons. Some
mid clouds for a couple of hours then a clear sky. Wind shifts
back to the southwest Monday morning with continued VFR.

Specifics for KSTL: Gradual shift to a northwest wind, then
quickly back to southwest Monday morning. VFR through Monday.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 292312
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
612 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Cold front now extending from north central Missouri into east
central Kansas will continue moving southeast this evening.  Front
should be through the forecast area by 04Z or shortly thereafter.
Strong warm advection and shortwave energy ahead of the front is
producing a band of showers extending from near KTAZ to KAIZ and
this band of showers will continue moving southeast through the
remainder of the afternoon, and should be mostly out of our forecast
area by 00Z.  Should see the sky clear behind the front with
overnight lows generally in the mid 30s to around 40.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Northwest upper level flow will prevail thru Tuesday across our
region, with mostly quiet wx, warm temps thanks to persistent SW
surface winds for much of the period, and a weak cold front dropping
thru late on Tuesday.

While it now looks like the better WAA for Monday night will be to
our northeast, moisture is expected to sufficiently rise by Tuesday
afternoon coupled with the presence of a surface cold front to
justify a small, slight chance PoP for parts of southeast MO, with
this continuing into early Tuesday evening.

Otherwise, temps should warm well on Monday, thanks to strengthening
SW winds and decent sunshine, with the higher MAV MOS values
preferred for max temps.  Decent westerly flow to carry into Tuesday
and should allow for another nice warm-up despite weak cold front
moving thru--with strong temp rises into the mid 70s still expected
for areas near and south of I-70.  Somewhat cooler values for areas
further to the north with an earlier FROPA and NW winds.

The front should sag enough to the south Tuesday night for much of
that period to be dry, but will buckle back in full force on
Wednesday as a warm front.  With a decent slug of moisture being
pulled up with this front, have expanded slight chance PoPs over a
larger area--mainly near and west of the MS river.  Good levels of
moisture for early April and a slowly southward moving cold front
will provide for persistent above climo rain chances Wednesday night
into Thursday.  Where the front ends up late Thursday is where it
probably will stall until Friday afternoon, resulting in additional
rain chances.  The frontal position is a bit more south than 24hrs
ago, and so will tend to focus the better rain chances, as it stands
now, for areas south of I-70.

Temps expected to return to below normal for next weekend following
this wet period as the cold front becomes unstuck and resumes its
push to the south.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Showers have pushed est of the area in advance of a cold front.
Pre-frontal trof has moved through producing a west wind with a
shift to the northwest coming this evening. Temp and dew point
spreads look to stay large enough to prevent fog, but will watch
closely given the light rain that fell at some locaitons. Some
mid clouds for a couple of hours then a clear sky. Wind shifts
back to the southwest Monday morning with continued VFR.

Specifics for KSTL: Gradual shift to a northwest wind, then
quickly back to southwest Monday morning. VFR through Monday.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 292312
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
612 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Cold front now extending from north central Missouri into east
central Kansas will continue moving southeast this evening.  Front
should be through the forecast area by 04Z or shortly thereafter.
Strong warm advection and shortwave energy ahead of the front is
producing a band of showers extending from near KTAZ to KAIZ and
this band of showers will continue moving southeast through the
remainder of the afternoon, and should be mostly out of our forecast
area by 00Z.  Should see the sky clear behind the front with
overnight lows generally in the mid 30s to around 40.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Northwest upper level flow will prevail thru Tuesday across our
region, with mostly quiet wx, warm temps thanks to persistent SW
surface winds for much of the period, and a weak cold front dropping
thru late on Tuesday.

While it now looks like the better WAA for Monday night will be to
our northeast, moisture is expected to sufficiently rise by Tuesday
afternoon coupled with the presence of a surface cold front to
justify a small, slight chance PoP for parts of southeast MO, with
this continuing into early Tuesday evening.

Otherwise, temps should warm well on Monday, thanks to strengthening
SW winds and decent sunshine, with the higher MAV MOS values
preferred for max temps.  Decent westerly flow to carry into Tuesday
and should allow for another nice warm-up despite weak cold front
moving thru--with strong temp rises into the mid 70s still expected
for areas near and south of I-70.  Somewhat cooler values for areas
further to the north with an earlier FROPA and NW winds.

The front should sag enough to the south Tuesday night for much of
that period to be dry, but will buckle back in full force on
Wednesday as a warm front.  With a decent slug of moisture being
pulled up with this front, have expanded slight chance PoPs over a
larger area--mainly near and west of the MS river.  Good levels of
moisture for early April and a slowly southward moving cold front
will provide for persistent above climo rain chances Wednesday night
into Thursday.  Where the front ends up late Thursday is where it
probably will stall until Friday afternoon, resulting in additional
rain chances.  The frontal position is a bit more south than 24hrs
ago, and so will tend to focus the better rain chances, as it stands
now, for areas south of I-70.

Temps expected to return to below normal for next weekend following
this wet period as the cold front becomes unstuck and resumes its
push to the south.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Showers have pushed est of the area in advance of a cold front.
Pre-frontal trof has moved through producing a west wind with a
shift to the northwest coming this evening. Temp and dew point
spreads look to stay large enough to prevent fog, but will watch
closely given the light rain that fell at some locaitons. Some
mid clouds for a couple of hours then a clear sky. Wind shifts
back to the southwest Monday morning with continued VFR.

Specifics for KSTL: Gradual shift to a northwest wind, then
quickly back to southwest Monday morning. VFR through Monday.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 292300
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
600 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Virga/sprinkles/very light showers were occurring with the an
approaching shortwave extending from the western Great Lakes
south into KS. Expect the associated sfc trough to pass through
the area early tonight. The boundary will encounter better
moisture after it moves through the cwfa with increased
convection, but this will take place south of our area tonight.

Sfc high pressure will move in behind the front, becoming centered
over the area by daybreak Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Warm and dry weather is expected Monday as the sfc high moves e-se
of the area and a modest south return flow develops. Another sfc
trough will wash out over the area Tuesday as upper level ridging
moves into the Plains with continued warm temperatures.

A more active pattern looks to evolve during the mid/late week
period. A strong shortwave is expected to move into the western
CONUS Wednesday pushing a sfc front out into the Plains. Not bad
agreement between global models with the GFS and GEM a bit faster
with the front versus the ECMWF as it moves into the area late
Wednesday night and Thursday. Large scale triggers for strong
convection are present like typical early Spring deep layer shear,
steep mid level lapse rate with an eml/cap, but diurnal timing of
the front, and extent of upstream convection on Wednesday and
potential downstream interference with instability due to
weakening convective "debris" is in some question this far out.
SPC has a 15% outlook for Thu with the fropa and this seems like a
good conservative approach for now until details become better
focused.

Cooler air will move into the region Fri with decreasing showers
as sfc high pressure builds in behind the front. Dry weather with
a warming trend is then expected by the end of log term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 557 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Front was currently pushing through the region late this afternoon
with surface wind becoming west and then northwest. Still have
some mid level cloud cover along/ahead of the main shortwave but
this should exit to the southeast within a couple hours of the TAF
start. Expecting VFR conditions through the period with a light
and variable wind tonight becoming southerly on Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 292300
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
600 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Virga/sprinkles/very light showers were occurring with the an
approaching shortwave extending from the western Great Lakes
south into KS. Expect the associated sfc trough to pass through
the area early tonight. The boundary will encounter better
moisture after it moves through the cwfa with increased
convection, but this will take place south of our area tonight.

Sfc high pressure will move in behind the front, becoming centered
over the area by daybreak Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Warm and dry weather is expected Monday as the sfc high moves e-se
of the area and a modest south return flow develops. Another sfc
trough will wash out over the area Tuesday as upper level ridging
moves into the Plains with continued warm temperatures.

A more active pattern looks to evolve during the mid/late week
period. A strong shortwave is expected to move into the western
CONUS Wednesday pushing a sfc front out into the Plains. Not bad
agreement between global models with the GFS and GEM a bit faster
with the front versus the ECMWF as it moves into the area late
Wednesday night and Thursday. Large scale triggers for strong
convection are present like typical early Spring deep layer shear,
steep mid level lapse rate with an eml/cap, but diurnal timing of
the front, and extent of upstream convection on Wednesday and
potential downstream interference with instability due to
weakening convective "debris" is in some question this far out.
SPC has a 15% outlook for Thu with the fropa and this seems like a
good conservative approach for now until details become better
focused.

Cooler air will move into the region Fri with decreasing showers
as sfc high pressure builds in behind the front. Dry weather with
a warming trend is then expected by the end of log term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 557 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Front was currently pushing through the region late this afternoon
with surface wind becoming west and then northwest. Still have
some mid level cloud cover along/ahead of the main shortwave but
this should exit to the southeast within a couple hours of the TAF
start. Expecting VFR conditions through the period with a light
and variable wind tonight becoming southerly on Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 292300
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
600 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Virga/sprinkles/very light showers were occurring with the an
approaching shortwave extending from the western Great Lakes
south into KS. Expect the associated sfc trough to pass through
the area early tonight. The boundary will encounter better
moisture after it moves through the cwfa with increased
convection, but this will take place south of our area tonight.

Sfc high pressure will move in behind the front, becoming centered
over the area by daybreak Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Warm and dry weather is expected Monday as the sfc high moves e-se
of the area and a modest south return flow develops. Another sfc
trough will wash out over the area Tuesday as upper level ridging
moves into the Plains with continued warm temperatures.

A more active pattern looks to evolve during the mid/late week
period. A strong shortwave is expected to move into the western
CONUS Wednesday pushing a sfc front out into the Plains. Not bad
agreement between global models with the GFS and GEM a bit faster
with the front versus the ECMWF as it moves into the area late
Wednesday night and Thursday. Large scale triggers for strong
convection are present like typical early Spring deep layer shear,
steep mid level lapse rate with an eml/cap, but diurnal timing of
the front, and extent of upstream convection on Wednesday and
potential downstream interference with instability due to
weakening convective "debris" is in some question this far out.
SPC has a 15% outlook for Thu with the fropa and this seems like a
good conservative approach for now until details become better
focused.

Cooler air will move into the region Fri with decreasing showers
as sfc high pressure builds in behind the front. Dry weather with
a warming trend is then expected by the end of log term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 557 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Front was currently pushing through the region late this afternoon
with surface wind becoming west and then northwest. Still have
some mid level cloud cover along/ahead of the main shortwave but
this should exit to the southeast within a couple hours of the TAF
start. Expecting VFR conditions through the period with a light
and variable wind tonight becoming southerly on Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 292300
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
600 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Virga/sprinkles/very light showers were occurring with the an
approaching shortwave extending from the western Great Lakes
south into KS. Expect the associated sfc trough to pass through
the area early tonight. The boundary will encounter better
moisture after it moves through the cwfa with increased
convection, but this will take place south of our area tonight.

Sfc high pressure will move in behind the front, becoming centered
over the area by daybreak Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Warm and dry weather is expected Monday as the sfc high moves e-se
of the area and a modest south return flow develops. Another sfc
trough will wash out over the area Tuesday as upper level ridging
moves into the Plains with continued warm temperatures.

A more active pattern looks to evolve during the mid/late week
period. A strong shortwave is expected to move into the western
CONUS Wednesday pushing a sfc front out into the Plains. Not bad
agreement between global models with the GFS and GEM a bit faster
with the front versus the ECMWF as it moves into the area late
Wednesday night and Thursday. Large scale triggers for strong
convection are present like typical early Spring deep layer shear,
steep mid level lapse rate with an eml/cap, but diurnal timing of
the front, and extent of upstream convection on Wednesday and
potential downstream interference with instability due to
weakening convective "debris" is in some question this far out.
SPC has a 15% outlook for Thu with the fropa and this seems like a
good conservative approach for now until details become better
focused.

Cooler air will move into the region Fri with decreasing showers
as sfc high pressure builds in behind the front. Dry weather with
a warming trend is then expected by the end of log term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 557 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Front was currently pushing through the region late this afternoon
with surface wind becoming west and then northwest. Still have
some mid level cloud cover along/ahead of the main shortwave but
this should exit to the southeast within a couple hours of the TAF
start. Expecting VFR conditions through the period with a light
and variable wind tonight becoming southerly on Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KLSX 292035
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
335 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Cold front now extending from north central Missouri into east
central Kansas will continue moving southeast this evening.  Front
should be through the forecast area by 04Z or shortly thereafter.
Strong warm advection and shortwave energy ahead of the front is
producing a band of showers extending from near KTAZ to KAIZ and
this band of showers will continue moving southeast through the
remainder of the afternoon, and should be mostly out of our forecast
area by 00Z.  Should see the sky clear behind the front with
overnight lows generally in the mid 30s to around 40.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Northwest upper level flow will prevail thru Tuesday across our
region, with mostly quiet wx, warm temps thanks to persistent SW
surface winds for much of the period, and a weak cold front dropping
thru late on Tuesday.

While it now looks like the better WAA for Monday night will be to
our northeast, moisture is expected to sufficiently rise by Tuesday
afternoon coupled with the presence of a surface cold front to
justify a small, slight chance PoP for parts of southeast MO, with
this continuing into early Tuesday evening.

Otherwise, temps should warm well on Monday, thanks to strengthening
SW winds and decent sunshine, with the higher MAV MOS values
preferred for max temps.  Decent westerly flow to carry into Tuesday
and should allow for another nice warm-up despite weak cold front
moving thru--with strong temp rises into the mid 70s still expected
for areas near and south of I-70.  Somewhat cooler values for areas
further to the north with an earlier FROPA and NW winds.

The front should sag enough to the south Tuesday night for much of
that period to be dry, but will buckle back in full force on
Wednesday as a warm front.  With a decent slug of moisture being
pulled up with this front, have expanded slight chance PoPs over a
larger area--mainly near and west of the MS river.  Good levels of
moisture for early April and a slowly southward moving cold front
will provide for persistent above climo rain chances Wednesday night
into Thursday.  Where the front ends up late Thursday is where it
probably will stall until Friday afternoon, resulting in additional
rain chances.  The frontal position is a bit more south than 24hrs
ago, and so will tend to focus the better rain chances, as it stands
now, for areas south of I-70.

Temps expected to return to below normal for next weekend following
this wet period as the cold front becomes unstuck and resumes its
push to the south.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

VFR flight conditions with gusty south-southwest flow will prevail
this afternoon across the area. Isolated showers will continue
move from west to east, and short range guidance continues to show
a line of showers redeveloping along the I-70 corridor later this
afternoon. Further south...an area of MVFR stratus with ceilings
around 2500 FT will just scrape by our southern forecast
area, primarily south of a line from KFAM to KSAR to KSLO; although
those sites may see a brief period of MVFR if the stratus can get
far enough north. The cold front currently over northwest Missouri
will sweep southeast later this afternoon and finally bring the
shower activity to an end. Expect wind to shift to the northwest
and the sky to become clear behind the front.

Specifics for KSTL:

Expect VFR flight conditions and gusty south-southwest flow to
prevail at Lambert this afternoon. Short range guidance continues
to show a line of showers redeveloping along the I-70 corridor
later this afternoon, and this band of showers will likely bring
some light rain to the terminal. Stratus over northeast Missouri
should remain well to the south-southeast of the terminal this
afternoon. The cold front currently over northwest Missouri will
pass through the terminal during the early evening and finally
bring the shower activity to an end. Expect wind to shift to the
northwest and the sky to become clear behind the front.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 292035
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
335 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Cold front now extending from north central Missouri into east
central Kansas will continue moving southeast this evening.  Front
should be through the forecast area by 04Z or shortly thereafter.
Strong warm advection and shortwave energy ahead of the front is
producing a band of showers extending from near KTAZ to KAIZ and
this band of showers will continue moving southeast through the
remainder of the afternoon, and should be mostly out of our forecast
area by 00Z.  Should see the sky clear behind the front with
overnight lows generally in the mid 30s to around 40.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Northwest upper level flow will prevail thru Tuesday across our
region, with mostly quiet wx, warm temps thanks to persistent SW
surface winds for much of the period, and a weak cold front dropping
thru late on Tuesday.

While it now looks like the better WAA for Monday night will be to
our northeast, moisture is expected to sufficiently rise by Tuesday
afternoon coupled with the presence of a surface cold front to
justify a small, slight chance PoP for parts of southeast MO, with
this continuing into early Tuesday evening.

Otherwise, temps should warm well on Monday, thanks to strengthening
SW winds and decent sunshine, with the higher MAV MOS values
preferred for max temps.  Decent westerly flow to carry into Tuesday
and should allow for another nice warm-up despite weak cold front
moving thru--with strong temp rises into the mid 70s still expected
for areas near and south of I-70.  Somewhat cooler values for areas
further to the north with an earlier FROPA and NW winds.

The front should sag enough to the south Tuesday night for much of
that period to be dry, but will buckle back in full force on
Wednesday as a warm front.  With a decent slug of moisture being
pulled up with this front, have expanded slight chance PoPs over a
larger area--mainly near and west of the MS river.  Good levels of
moisture for early April and a slowly southward moving cold front
will provide for persistent above climo rain chances Wednesday night
into Thursday.  Where the front ends up late Thursday is where it
probably will stall until Friday afternoon, resulting in additional
rain chances.  The frontal position is a bit more south than 24hrs
ago, and so will tend to focus the better rain chances, as it stands
now, for areas south of I-70.

Temps expected to return to below normal for next weekend following
this wet period as the cold front becomes unstuck and resumes its
push to the south.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

VFR flight conditions with gusty south-southwest flow will prevail
this afternoon across the area. Isolated showers will continue
move from west to east, and short range guidance continues to show
a line of showers redeveloping along the I-70 corridor later this
afternoon. Further south...an area of MVFR stratus with ceilings
around 2500 FT will just scrape by our southern forecast
area, primarily south of a line from KFAM to KSAR to KSLO; although
those sites may see a brief period of MVFR if the stratus can get
far enough north. The cold front currently over northwest Missouri
will sweep southeast later this afternoon and finally bring the
shower activity to an end. Expect wind to shift to the northwest
and the sky to become clear behind the front.

Specifics for KSTL:

Expect VFR flight conditions and gusty south-southwest flow to
prevail at Lambert this afternoon. Short range guidance continues
to show a line of showers redeveloping along the I-70 corridor
later this afternoon, and this band of showers will likely bring
some light rain to the terminal. Stratus over northeast Missouri
should remain well to the south-southeast of the terminal this
afternoon. The cold front currently over northwest Missouri will
pass through the terminal during the early evening and finally
bring the shower activity to an end. Expect wind to shift to the
northwest and the sky to become clear behind the front.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KEAX 292023
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
323 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Tonight through Tuesday: Northwest flow aloft will prevail through
the period. At the surface, high pressure will move through
overnight, with the current gusty wind speeds (especially over NW MO)
relaxing around sunset. Skies will clear later this evening, and
with the weaker wind speeds and weak cold air advection behind the
cold front, lows tonight will fall into the 30s. Dry and warm weather
are expected to start the work week with no discernible upper waves
noted to move through the area. Afternoon temperatures will be in the
60s and 70s each day.

Wednesday/Thursday Morning: The model trend to delay the onset of
precipitation continues with the latest runs. In fact, much of
Wednesday looks to be dry and warm, with highs reaching into the
middle to upper 70s. Moisture will also steadily increase as a warm
front moves northward during the day in advance of the next system
moving through the Northern/Central Plains, with dewpoints well into
the 50s. Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the
afternoon hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This
convection will develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually
reaching the northwest portions of the forecast area around/shortly
after sunset. Instability will gradually decrease with the nocturnal
arrival of the convection, with convection potentially experiencing
a weakening trend as it moves through the CWA. Still, with moderate
speed shear and modest instability, there is some potential for a
few strong storms rooted near/along the surface front. The best
chance for precipitation will occur Wednesday night through early
Thursday morning with the passage of the front, when one-quarter to
one-half inch will be common with higher amounts in the most robust
thunderstorm activity.

Thursday and beyond: The specifics remain difficult in this forecast
package with modest model spread and unknown convective evolution
from Wed nights activity. Rain will eventually push south of the
forecast area during the day Thursday as the surface front stalls
near the AR/MO border. The next upper wave will move through Thu
night into Friday, giving another chance for rainfall north of the
surface warm front across our area. A cooler day is expected on
Friday, with a return to near normal temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Front will move through terminals between 18-20Z with wind
shift/speeds notably increasing. Speeds relax and gradually back
during the evening, eventually settling into light southwesterly
flow. Not expecting any precipitation at terminals and skies will
become mostly clear after sunset.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

There will be an elevated fire risk this afternoon across mainly
areas northwest of I-35. A strong cold front is expected to move
through the area this afternoon. While winds will increase into the
15 to 20 kt sustained range with stronger gusts, temperatures may
actually rise behind the front by several degrees due to deeper
mixing. This will also allow for a drop in dewpoints and as a result
humidity values look to fall into the 30 to 35 percent range across
northwestern Missouri. Anyone with outside burning interest should be
aware that the light/scattered shower activity during the morning
hours will give way to the elevated fire danger during the afternoon.
Any fires could become more difficult to control with the changing
conditions during the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair
FIRE WEATHER...CDB







000
FXUS63 KEAX 292023
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
323 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Tonight through Tuesday: Northwest flow aloft will prevail through
the period. At the surface, high pressure will move through
overnight, with the current gusty wind speeds (especially over NW MO)
relaxing around sunset. Skies will clear later this evening, and
with the weaker wind speeds and weak cold air advection behind the
cold front, lows tonight will fall into the 30s. Dry and warm weather
are expected to start the work week with no discernible upper waves
noted to move through the area. Afternoon temperatures will be in the
60s and 70s each day.

Wednesday/Thursday Morning: The model trend to delay the onset of
precipitation continues with the latest runs. In fact, much of
Wednesday looks to be dry and warm, with highs reaching into the
middle to upper 70s. Moisture will also steadily increase as a warm
front moves northward during the day in advance of the next system
moving through the Northern/Central Plains, with dewpoints well into
the 50s. Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the
afternoon hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This
convection will develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually
reaching the northwest portions of the forecast area around/shortly
after sunset. Instability will gradually decrease with the nocturnal
arrival of the convection, with convection potentially experiencing
a weakening trend as it moves through the CWA. Still, with moderate
speed shear and modest instability, there is some potential for a
few strong storms rooted near/along the surface front. The best
chance for precipitation will occur Wednesday night through early
Thursday morning with the passage of the front, when one-quarter to
one-half inch will be common with higher amounts in the most robust
thunderstorm activity.

Thursday and beyond: The specifics remain difficult in this forecast
package with modest model spread and unknown convective evolution
from Wed nights activity. Rain will eventually push south of the
forecast area during the day Thursday as the surface front stalls
near the AR/MO border. The next upper wave will move through Thu
night into Friday, giving another chance for rainfall north of the
surface warm front across our area. A cooler day is expected on
Friday, with a return to near normal temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Front will move through terminals between 18-20Z with wind
shift/speeds notably increasing. Speeds relax and gradually back
during the evening, eventually settling into light southwesterly
flow. Not expecting any precipitation at terminals and skies will
become mostly clear after sunset.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

There will be an elevated fire risk this afternoon across mainly
areas northwest of I-35. A strong cold front is expected to move
through the area this afternoon. While winds will increase into the
15 to 20 kt sustained range with stronger gusts, temperatures may
actually rise behind the front by several degrees due to deeper
mixing. This will also allow for a drop in dewpoints and as a result
humidity values look to fall into the 30 to 35 percent range across
northwestern Missouri. Anyone with outside burning interest should be
aware that the light/scattered shower activity during the morning
hours will give way to the elevated fire danger during the afternoon.
Any fires could become more difficult to control with the changing
conditions during the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair
FIRE WEATHER...CDB







000
FXUS63 KEAX 292023
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
323 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Tonight through Tuesday: Northwest flow aloft will prevail through
the period. At the surface, high pressure will move through
overnight, with the current gusty wind speeds (especially over NW MO)
relaxing around sunset. Skies will clear later this evening, and
with the weaker wind speeds and weak cold air advection behind the
cold front, lows tonight will fall into the 30s. Dry and warm weather
are expected to start the work week with no discernible upper waves
noted to move through the area. Afternoon temperatures will be in the
60s and 70s each day.

Wednesday/Thursday Morning: The model trend to delay the onset of
precipitation continues with the latest runs. In fact, much of
Wednesday looks to be dry and warm, with highs reaching into the
middle to upper 70s. Moisture will also steadily increase as a warm
front moves northward during the day in advance of the next system
moving through the Northern/Central Plains, with dewpoints well into
the 50s. Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the
afternoon hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This
convection will develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually
reaching the northwest portions of the forecast area around/shortly
after sunset. Instability will gradually decrease with the nocturnal
arrival of the convection, with convection potentially experiencing
a weakening trend as it moves through the CWA. Still, with moderate
speed shear and modest instability, there is some potential for a
few strong storms rooted near/along the surface front. The best
chance for precipitation will occur Wednesday night through early
Thursday morning with the passage of the front, when one-quarter to
one-half inch will be common with higher amounts in the most robust
thunderstorm activity.

Thursday and beyond: The specifics remain difficult in this forecast
package with modest model spread and unknown convective evolution
from Wed nights activity. Rain will eventually push south of the
forecast area during the day Thursday as the surface front stalls
near the AR/MO border. The next upper wave will move through Thu
night into Friday, giving another chance for rainfall north of the
surface warm front across our area. A cooler day is expected on
Friday, with a return to near normal temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Front will move through terminals between 18-20Z with wind
shift/speeds notably increasing. Speeds relax and gradually back
during the evening, eventually settling into light southwesterly
flow. Not expecting any precipitation at terminals and skies will
become mostly clear after sunset.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

There will be an elevated fire risk this afternoon across mainly
areas northwest of I-35. A strong cold front is expected to move
through the area this afternoon. While winds will increase into the
15 to 20 kt sustained range with stronger gusts, temperatures may
actually rise behind the front by several degrees due to deeper
mixing. This will also allow for a drop in dewpoints and as a result
humidity values look to fall into the 30 to 35 percent range across
northwestern Missouri. Anyone with outside burning interest should be
aware that the light/scattered shower activity during the morning
hours will give way to the elevated fire danger during the afternoon.
Any fires could become more difficult to control with the changing
conditions during the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair
FIRE WEATHER...CDB






000
FXUS63 KEAX 292023
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
323 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Tonight through Tuesday: Northwest flow aloft will prevail through
the period. At the surface, high pressure will move through
overnight, with the current gusty wind speeds (especially over NW MO)
relaxing around sunset. Skies will clear later this evening, and
with the weaker wind speeds and weak cold air advection behind the
cold front, lows tonight will fall into the 30s. Dry and warm weather
are expected to start the work week with no discernible upper waves
noted to move through the area. Afternoon temperatures will be in the
60s and 70s each day.

Wednesday/Thursday Morning: The model trend to delay the onset of
precipitation continues with the latest runs. In fact, much of
Wednesday looks to be dry and warm, with highs reaching into the
middle to upper 70s. Moisture will also steadily increase as a warm
front moves northward during the day in advance of the next system
moving through the Northern/Central Plains, with dewpoints well into
the 50s. Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the
afternoon hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This
convection will develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually
reaching the northwest portions of the forecast area around/shortly
after sunset. Instability will gradually decrease with the nocturnal
arrival of the convection, with convection potentially experiencing
a weakening trend as it moves through the CWA. Still, with moderate
speed shear and modest instability, there is some potential for a
few strong storms rooted near/along the surface front. The best
chance for precipitation will occur Wednesday night through early
Thursday morning with the passage of the front, when one-quarter to
one-half inch will be common with higher amounts in the most robust
thunderstorm activity.

Thursday and beyond: The specifics remain difficult in this forecast
package with modest model spread and unknown convective evolution
from Wed nights activity. Rain will eventually push south of the
forecast area during the day Thursday as the surface front stalls
near the AR/MO border. The next upper wave will move through Thu
night into Friday, giving another chance for rainfall north of the
surface warm front across our area. A cooler day is expected on
Friday, with a return to near normal temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Front will move through terminals between 18-20Z with wind
shift/speeds notably increasing. Speeds relax and gradually back
during the evening, eventually settling into light southwesterly
flow. Not expecting any precipitation at terminals and skies will
become mostly clear after sunset.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

There will be an elevated fire risk this afternoon across mainly
areas northwest of I-35. A strong cold front is expected to move
through the area this afternoon. While winds will increase into the
15 to 20 kt sustained range with stronger gusts, temperatures may
actually rise behind the front by several degrees due to deeper
mixing. This will also allow for a drop in dewpoints and as a result
humidity values look to fall into the 30 to 35 percent range across
northwestern Missouri. Anyone with outside burning interest should be
aware that the light/scattered shower activity during the morning
hours will give way to the elevated fire danger during the afternoon.
Any fires could become more difficult to control with the changing
conditions during the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair
FIRE WEATHER...CDB






000
FXUS63 KSGF 292016
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
316 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Virga/sprinkles/very light showers were occurring with the an
approaching shortwave extending from the western Great Lakes
south into KS. Expect the associated sfc trough to pass through
the area early tonight. The boundary will encounter better
moisture after it moves through the cwfa with increased
convection, but this will take place south of our area tonight.

Sfc high pressure will move in behind the front, becoming centered
over the area by daybreak Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Warm and dry weather is expected Monday as the sfc high moves e-se
of the area and a modest south return flow develops. Another sfc
trough will wash out over the area Tuesday as upper level ridging
moves into the Plains with continued warm temperatures.

A more active pattern looks to evolve during the mid/late week
period. A strong shortwave is expected to move into the western
CONUS Wednesday pushing a sfc front out into the Plains. Not bad
agreement between global models with the GFS and GEM a bit faster
with the front versus the ECMWF as it moves into the area late
Wednesday night and Thursday. Large scale triggers for strong
convection are present like typical early Spring deep layer shear,
steep mid level lapse rate with an eml/cap, but diurnal timing of
the front, and extent of upstream convection on Wednesday and
potential downstream interference with instability due to
weakening convective "debris" is in some question this far out.
SPC has a 15% outlook for Thu with the fropa and this seems like a
good conservative approach for now until details become better
focused.

Cooler air will move into the region Fri with decreasing showers
as sfc high pressure builds in behind the front. Dry weather with
a warming trend is then expected by the end of log term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. A weak front
is currently transiting the area bringing with it a wind from
south to southeast to west to northwest. Pressure gradient not as
strong near the front which will allow some of the gustiness to
diminish as well.

Winds will come back around to a southeast direction as high
pressure moves across the area overnight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Gaede







000
FXUS63 KSGF 292016
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
316 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Virga/sprinkles/very light showers were occurring with the an
approaching shortwave extending from the western Great Lakes
south into KS. Expect the associated sfc trough to pass through
the area early tonight. The boundary will encounter better
moisture after it moves through the cwfa with increased
convection, but this will take place south of our area tonight.

Sfc high pressure will move in behind the front, becoming centered
over the area by daybreak Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Warm and dry weather is expected Monday as the sfc high moves e-se
of the area and a modest south return flow develops. Another sfc
trough will wash out over the area Tuesday as upper level ridging
moves into the Plains with continued warm temperatures.

A more active pattern looks to evolve during the mid/late week
period. A strong shortwave is expected to move into the western
CONUS Wednesday pushing a sfc front out into the Plains. Not bad
agreement between global models with the GFS and GEM a bit faster
with the front versus the ECMWF as it moves into the area late
Wednesday night and Thursday. Large scale triggers for strong
convection are present like typical early Spring deep layer shear,
steep mid level lapse rate with an eml/cap, but diurnal timing of
the front, and extent of upstream convection on Wednesday and
potential downstream interference with instability due to
weakening convective "debris" is in some question this far out.
SPC has a 15% outlook for Thu with the fropa and this seems like a
good conservative approach for now until details become better
focused.

Cooler air will move into the region Fri with decreasing showers
as sfc high pressure builds in behind the front. Dry weather with
a warming trend is then expected by the end of log term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. A weak front
is currently transiting the area bringing with it a wind from
south to southeast to west to northwest. Pressure gradient not as
strong near the front which will allow some of the gustiness to
diminish as well.

Winds will come back around to a southeast direction as high
pressure moves across the area overnight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Gaede







000
FXUS63 KSGF 292016
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
316 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Virga/sprinkles/very light showers were occurring with the an
approaching shortwave extending from the western Great Lakes
south into KS. Expect the associated sfc trough to pass through
the area early tonight. The boundary will encounter better
moisture after it moves through the cwfa with increased
convection, but this will take place south of our area tonight.

Sfc high pressure will move in behind the front, becoming centered
over the area by daybreak Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Warm and dry weather is expected Monday as the sfc high moves e-se
of the area and a modest south return flow develops. Another sfc
trough will wash out over the area Tuesday as upper level ridging
moves into the Plains with continued warm temperatures.

A more active pattern looks to evolve during the mid/late week
period. A strong shortwave is expected to move into the western
CONUS Wednesday pushing a sfc front out into the Plains. Not bad
agreement between global models with the GFS and GEM a bit faster
with the front versus the ECMWF as it moves into the area late
Wednesday night and Thursday. Large scale triggers for strong
convection are present like typical early Spring deep layer shear,
steep mid level lapse rate with an eml/cap, but diurnal timing of
the front, and extent of upstream convection on Wednesday and
potential downstream interference with instability due to
weakening convective "debris" is in some question this far out.
SPC has a 15% outlook for Thu with the fropa and this seems like a
good conservative approach for now until details become better
focused.

Cooler air will move into the region Fri with decreasing showers
as sfc high pressure builds in behind the front. Dry weather with
a warming trend is then expected by the end of log term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. A weak front
is currently transiting the area bringing with it a wind from
south to southeast to west to northwest. Pressure gradient not as
strong near the front which will allow some of the gustiness to
diminish as well.

Winds will come back around to a southeast direction as high
pressure moves across the area overnight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Gaede








000
FXUS63 KSGF 292016
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
316 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Virga/sprinkles/very light showers were occurring with the an
approaching shortwave extending from the western Great Lakes
south into KS. Expect the associated sfc trough to pass through
the area early tonight. The boundary will encounter better
moisture after it moves through the cwfa with increased
convection, but this will take place south of our area tonight.

Sfc high pressure will move in behind the front, becoming centered
over the area by daybreak Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Warm and dry weather is expected Monday as the sfc high moves e-se
of the area and a modest south return flow develops. Another sfc
trough will wash out over the area Tuesday as upper level ridging
moves into the Plains with continued warm temperatures.

A more active pattern looks to evolve during the mid/late week
period. A strong shortwave is expected to move into the western
CONUS Wednesday pushing a sfc front out into the Plains. Not bad
agreement between global models with the GFS and GEM a bit faster
with the front versus the ECMWF as it moves into the area late
Wednesday night and Thursday. Large scale triggers for strong
convection are present like typical early Spring deep layer shear,
steep mid level lapse rate with an eml/cap, but diurnal timing of
the front, and extent of upstream convection on Wednesday and
potential downstream interference with instability due to
weakening convective "debris" is in some question this far out.
SPC has a 15% outlook for Thu with the fropa and this seems like a
good conservative approach for now until details become better
focused.

Cooler air will move into the region Fri with decreasing showers
as sfc high pressure builds in behind the front. Dry weather with
a warming trend is then expected by the end of log term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. A weak front
is currently transiting the area bringing with it a wind from
south to southeast to west to northwest. Pressure gradient not as
strong near the front which will allow some of the gustiness to
diminish as well.

Winds will come back around to a southeast direction as high
pressure moves across the area overnight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Gaede








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