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000
FXUS63 KLSX 280925
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
425 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

OPPRESSIVELY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY BENEATH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THE PRESENCE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WITHIN A NEARLY UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SH/TS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, AND
SINCE NEITHER THE AIR MASS NOR THE FORECAST H7 TEMPERATURES HAVE
CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS, A SIMILAR PCPN
SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TODAY. GENERALLY FOLLOWED H7 TEMPERATURES AS
A PROXY FOR CAPPING TO DETERMINE PLACEMENT OF SCHC POPS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER WILL SEND
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS TODAY/TONIGHT. SINCE THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
RESPONSE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST, ODDS ARE GOOD
THAT THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MO/IL ON WED/WED NIGHT AND
BRING RELIEF FROM THE RECENT HEAT/HUMIDITY FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
SH/TS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY BUT PCPN SHOULD TAPER
OFF ACROSS THE CWA BY WED NIGHT.

KANOFSKY

.LONG TERM: (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK SPECTACULARLY DRIER AND LESS HUMID WITHIN
THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL KEEP NW FLOW IN PLACE OVER MO/IL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BOTH THE 12Z AND 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT
OF THE NW FLOW, HOWEVER-- THE EC IS FARTHER NORTH WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CANADA WHICH KEEPS THE FLOW NEARLY QUASIZONAL
BUT THE GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW IN CANADA WHICH LEADS TO
A SHARPER NW FLOW SOLUTION. A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW COULD SUPPORT PERIODS OF SH/TS LATE THIS WEEKEND
AND/OR EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT SUCH FEATURES ARE TOO POORLY RESOLVED
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE TO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN POPS GREATER THAN SCHC-
CHC. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO SEASONABLY WARM UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONLY ISOLATED TSRA REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO. SHORT WAVE LIFTING
NORTH AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. ONE WOULD THINK THIS
WOULD PRODUCE A MOSTLY DRY DAY TUESDAY AS ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
BE WELL NORTH OF MO. HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO FIRE UP SCATTERED
TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN MO AND WESTERN IL. IT
WILL NOT TAKE MUCH IN THIS HOT, HUMID, UNSTABLE AIR MASS. A
VICINITY FOR UIN, SUS AND CPS WOULD WILL BE THE BEST I CAN DO FOR
NOW. EXPECT SOME MORNING FOG AGAIN AS WELL.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: ISOLATED TSRA HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND SHOULD STAY
THERE. WHAT LIFT THAT IS LEFT APPEARS TO BE BETTER ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MO. MODELS AGAIN DEVELOP ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS EASTERN MO
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL THROW IN A VICINITY TO COVER.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BOONE MO-
     CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-
     IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-MONITEAU MO-
     MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-REYNOLDS MO-ST. CHARLES MO-ST.
     FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE
     MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR AUDRAIN MO-KNOX MO-
     LEWIS MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CALHOUN
     IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-MONROE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-
     BROWN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MARION
     IL-MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-WASHINGTON IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 280925
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
425 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

OPPRESSIVELY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY BENEATH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THE PRESENCE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WITHIN A NEARLY UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SH/TS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, AND
SINCE NEITHER THE AIR MASS NOR THE FORECAST H7 TEMPERATURES HAVE
CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS, A SIMILAR PCPN
SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TODAY. GENERALLY FOLLOWED H7 TEMPERATURES AS
A PROXY FOR CAPPING TO DETERMINE PLACEMENT OF SCHC POPS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER WILL SEND
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS TODAY/TONIGHT. SINCE THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
RESPONSE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST, ODDS ARE GOOD
THAT THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MO/IL ON WED/WED NIGHT AND
BRING RELIEF FROM THE RECENT HEAT/HUMIDITY FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
SH/TS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY BUT PCPN SHOULD TAPER
OFF ACROSS THE CWA BY WED NIGHT.

KANOFSKY

.LONG TERM: (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK SPECTACULARLY DRIER AND LESS HUMID WITHIN
THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL KEEP NW FLOW IN PLACE OVER MO/IL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BOTH THE 12Z AND 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT
OF THE NW FLOW, HOWEVER-- THE EC IS FARTHER NORTH WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CANADA WHICH KEEPS THE FLOW NEARLY QUASIZONAL
BUT THE GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW IN CANADA WHICH LEADS TO
A SHARPER NW FLOW SOLUTION. A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW COULD SUPPORT PERIODS OF SH/TS LATE THIS WEEKEND
AND/OR EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT SUCH FEATURES ARE TOO POORLY RESOLVED
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE TO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN POPS GREATER THAN SCHC-
CHC. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO SEASONABLY WARM UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONLY ISOLATED TSRA REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO. SHORT WAVE LIFTING
NORTH AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. ONE WOULD THINK THIS
WOULD PRODUCE A MOSTLY DRY DAY TUESDAY AS ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
BE WELL NORTH OF MO. HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO FIRE UP SCATTERED
TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN MO AND WESTERN IL. IT
WILL NOT TAKE MUCH IN THIS HOT, HUMID, UNSTABLE AIR MASS. A
VICINITY FOR UIN, SUS AND CPS WOULD WILL BE THE BEST I CAN DO FOR
NOW. EXPECT SOME MORNING FOG AGAIN AS WELL.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: ISOLATED TSRA HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND SHOULD STAY
THERE. WHAT LIFT THAT IS LEFT APPEARS TO BE BETTER ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MO. MODELS AGAIN DEVELOP ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS EASTERN MO
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL THROW IN A VICINITY TO COVER.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BOONE MO-
     CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-
     IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-MONITEAU MO-
     MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-REYNOLDS MO-ST. CHARLES MO-ST.
     FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE
     MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR AUDRAIN MO-KNOX MO-
     LEWIS MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CALHOUN
     IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-MONROE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-
     BROWN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MARION
     IL-MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-WASHINGTON IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 280925
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
425 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

OPPRESSIVELY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY BENEATH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THE PRESENCE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WITHIN A NEARLY UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SH/TS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, AND
SINCE NEITHER THE AIR MASS NOR THE FORECAST H7 TEMPERATURES HAVE
CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS, A SIMILAR PCPN
SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TODAY. GENERALLY FOLLOWED H7 TEMPERATURES AS
A PROXY FOR CAPPING TO DETERMINE PLACEMENT OF SCHC POPS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER WILL SEND
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS TODAY/TONIGHT. SINCE THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
RESPONSE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST, ODDS ARE GOOD
THAT THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MO/IL ON WED/WED NIGHT AND
BRING RELIEF FROM THE RECENT HEAT/HUMIDITY FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
SH/TS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY BUT PCPN SHOULD TAPER
OFF ACROSS THE CWA BY WED NIGHT.

KANOFSKY

.LONG TERM: (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK SPECTACULARLY DRIER AND LESS HUMID WITHIN
THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL KEEP NW FLOW IN PLACE OVER MO/IL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BOTH THE 12Z AND 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT
OF THE NW FLOW, HOWEVER-- THE EC IS FARTHER NORTH WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CANADA WHICH KEEPS THE FLOW NEARLY QUASIZONAL
BUT THE GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW IN CANADA WHICH LEADS TO
A SHARPER NW FLOW SOLUTION. A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW COULD SUPPORT PERIODS OF SH/TS LATE THIS WEEKEND
AND/OR EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT SUCH FEATURES ARE TOO POORLY RESOLVED
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE TO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN POPS GREATER THAN SCHC-
CHC. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO SEASONABLY WARM UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONLY ISOLATED TSRA REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO. SHORT WAVE LIFTING
NORTH AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. ONE WOULD THINK THIS
WOULD PRODUCE A MOSTLY DRY DAY TUESDAY AS ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
BE WELL NORTH OF MO. HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO FIRE UP SCATTERED
TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN MO AND WESTERN IL. IT
WILL NOT TAKE MUCH IN THIS HOT, HUMID, UNSTABLE AIR MASS. A
VICINITY FOR UIN, SUS AND CPS WOULD WILL BE THE BEST I CAN DO FOR
NOW. EXPECT SOME MORNING FOG AGAIN AS WELL.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: ISOLATED TSRA HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND SHOULD STAY
THERE. WHAT LIFT THAT IS LEFT APPEARS TO BE BETTER ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MO. MODELS AGAIN DEVELOP ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS EASTERN MO
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL THROW IN A VICINITY TO COVER.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BOONE MO-
     CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-
     IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-MONITEAU MO-
     MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-REYNOLDS MO-ST. CHARLES MO-ST.
     FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE
     MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR AUDRAIN MO-KNOX MO-
     LEWIS MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CALHOUN
     IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-MONROE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-
     BROWN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MARION
     IL-MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-WASHINGTON IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KEAX 280840
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

Today - Wednesday:

There are a few concerns in the short term. The first of which will
be the continued heat today. Similar 850mb temperatures in
comparison to yesterday with much less cloud cover will yield highs
in the low to mid 90s. Factoring the humidity and the heat index
will rise into the 102 to 109 degree range. As such, have continued
to maintain the excessive heat warning and heat advisory we have in
effect until 9PM. Relief from the heat however, will be on the way
this evening in the form of a cold front. This morning, an upper
level low and associated upper trough is moving through northern
Montana. This upper trough will swing into the northern Plains today
forcing the cold front into northwestern Missouri around 00Z. Model
soundings suggest the cap will hold through the day today however,
it looks to weaken this evening. Thunderstorms will develop across
the area this evening as the cold front begins to move through the
area. Organized severe potential looks low at this time as forcing
and shear (both 1km and 6km) look weak. Instability, however, will
continue to be strong with 2000-3000J/kg of MUCAPE across northern
Missouri. That being the case, there will be the possibility of
isolated severe storms capable of producing damaging winds and
perhaps some marginally severe hail. Although the set-up does not
scream flash flooding, with PWAT values hovering around 2" any
stronger storms that do develop should be efficient rain producers
and could be capable of producing local flash flooding. This front
will then continue to sink across the forecast area overnight with
storms weakening. These storms are expected to exit the area by
early Wednesday morning. Surface high pressure will then look to
build into the area Wednesday afternoon bring lower humidity and
much more pleasant highs in the low to mid 80s.

Wednesday night Saturday:

Surface high pressure will remain in place through Friday keeping
conditions dry. Temperatures will be seasonable with highs in the
mid 80s to around 90 on Thursday and Friday. Saturday, we will being
to see a pattern shift as an upper level ridge that is entrench over
much of the southern CONUS through the end of the work week will
begin to shift to the west and build. This will put the area on the
periphery of the lee side of the ridge. Highs Saturday will still
remain in the mid 80s to near 90.

Saturday night - Tuesday:

This period looks to potentially be more active as the area remains
on the eastern edge of the ridge over the western CONUS. Although
there is little agreement on timing between the GFS and EC, both
models do suggest several shortwave will round the ridge and bring a
few rounds of thunderstorms to the area through this period.
Although much will depend on the evolution of any thunderstorms
activity, highs Sunday and Monday are forecast to range from the mid
80s to the lower 90s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. A front will move
into the area late in the forecast period, likely between 00Z and
06Z, with times closer to 06Z for the Kansas City area terminals.
There is still a fair amount of uncertainty withhow far southwest
convection can develop along the front given that it looks like the
cap will remain in place.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ057-
     060-103>105.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-102.

MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ028-
     029-037>040-043>046-053-054.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ005>008-013>017-
     020>025-030>033.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...CDB



000
FXUS63 KEAX 280840
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

Today - Wednesday:

There are a few concerns in the short term. The first of which will
be the continued heat today. Similar 850mb temperatures in
comparison to yesterday with much less cloud cover will yield highs
in the low to mid 90s. Factoring the humidity and the heat index
will rise into the 102 to 109 degree range. As such, have continued
to maintain the excessive heat warning and heat advisory we have in
effect until 9PM. Relief from the heat however, will be on the way
this evening in the form of a cold front. This morning, an upper
level low and associated upper trough is moving through northern
Montana. This upper trough will swing into the northern Plains today
forcing the cold front into northwestern Missouri around 00Z. Model
soundings suggest the cap will hold through the day today however,
it looks to weaken this evening. Thunderstorms will develop across
the area this evening as the cold front begins to move through the
area. Organized severe potential looks low at this time as forcing
and shear (both 1km and 6km) look weak. Instability, however, will
continue to be strong with 2000-3000J/kg of MUCAPE across northern
Missouri. That being the case, there will be the possibility of
isolated severe storms capable of producing damaging winds and
perhaps some marginally severe hail. Although the set-up does not
scream flash flooding, with PWAT values hovering around 2" any
stronger storms that do develop should be efficient rain producers
and could be capable of producing local flash flooding. This front
will then continue to sink across the forecast area overnight with
storms weakening. These storms are expected to exit the area by
early Wednesday morning. Surface high pressure will then look to
build into the area Wednesday afternoon bring lower humidity and
much more pleasant highs in the low to mid 80s.

Wednesday night Saturday:

Surface high pressure will remain in place through Friday keeping
conditions dry. Temperatures will be seasonable with highs in the
mid 80s to around 90 on Thursday and Friday. Saturday, we will being
to see a pattern shift as an upper level ridge that is entrench over
much of the southern CONUS through the end of the work week will
begin to shift to the west and build. This will put the area on the
periphery of the lee side of the ridge. Highs Saturday will still
remain in the mid 80s to near 90.

Saturday night - Tuesday:

This period looks to potentially be more active as the area remains
on the eastern edge of the ridge over the western CONUS. Although
there is little agreement on timing between the GFS and EC, both
models do suggest several shortwave will round the ridge and bring a
few rounds of thunderstorms to the area through this period.
Although much will depend on the evolution of any thunderstorms
activity, highs Sunday and Monday are forecast to range from the mid
80s to the lower 90s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. A front will move
into the area late in the forecast period, likely between 00Z and
06Z, with times closer to 06Z for the Kansas City area terminals.
There is still a fair amount of uncertainty withhow far southwest
convection can develop along the front given that it looks like the
cap will remain in place.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ057-
     060-103>105.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-102.

MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ028-
     029-037>040-043>046-053-054.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ005>008-013>017-
     020>025-030>033.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...CDB



000
FXUS63 KEAX 280840
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

Today - Wednesday:

There are a few concerns in the short term. The first of which will
be the continued heat today. Similar 850mb temperatures in
comparison to yesterday with much less cloud cover will yield highs
in the low to mid 90s. Factoring the humidity and the heat index
will rise into the 102 to 109 degree range. As such, have continued
to maintain the excessive heat warning and heat advisory we have in
effect until 9PM. Relief from the heat however, will be on the way
this evening in the form of a cold front. This morning, an upper
level low and associated upper trough is moving through northern
Montana. This upper trough will swing into the northern Plains today
forcing the cold front into northwestern Missouri around 00Z. Model
soundings suggest the cap will hold through the day today however,
it looks to weaken this evening. Thunderstorms will develop across
the area this evening as the cold front begins to move through the
area. Organized severe potential looks low at this time as forcing
and shear (both 1km and 6km) look weak. Instability, however, will
continue to be strong with 2000-3000J/kg of MUCAPE across northern
Missouri. That being the case, there will be the possibility of
isolated severe storms capable of producing damaging winds and
perhaps some marginally severe hail. Although the set-up does not
scream flash flooding, with PWAT values hovering around 2" any
stronger storms that do develop should be efficient rain producers
and could be capable of producing local flash flooding. This front
will then continue to sink across the forecast area overnight with
storms weakening. These storms are expected to exit the area by
early Wednesday morning. Surface high pressure will then look to
build into the area Wednesday afternoon bring lower humidity and
much more pleasant highs in the low to mid 80s.

Wednesday night Saturday:

Surface high pressure will remain in place through Friday keeping
conditions dry. Temperatures will be seasonable with highs in the
mid 80s to around 90 on Thursday and Friday. Saturday, we will being
to see a pattern shift as an upper level ridge that is entrench over
much of the southern CONUS through the end of the work week will
begin to shift to the west and build. This will put the area on the
periphery of the lee side of the ridge. Highs Saturday will still
remain in the mid 80s to near 90.

Saturday night - Tuesday:

This period looks to potentially be more active as the area remains
on the eastern edge of the ridge over the western CONUS. Although
there is little agreement on timing between the GFS and EC, both
models do suggest several shortwave will round the ridge and bring a
few rounds of thunderstorms to the area through this period.
Although much will depend on the evolution of any thunderstorms
activity, highs Sunday and Monday are forecast to range from the mid
80s to the lower 90s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. A front will move
into the area late in the forecast period, likely between 00Z and
06Z, with times closer to 06Z for the Kansas City area terminals.
There is still a fair amount of uncertainty withhow far southwest
convection can develop along the front given that it looks like the
cap will remain in place.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ057-
     060-103>105.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-102.

MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ028-
     029-037>040-043>046-053-054.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ005>008-013>017-
     020>025-030>033.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...CDB



000
FXUS63 KEAX 280840
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

Today - Wednesday:

There are a few concerns in the short term. The first of which will
be the continued heat today. Similar 850mb temperatures in
comparison to yesterday with much less cloud cover will yield highs
in the low to mid 90s. Factoring the humidity and the heat index
will rise into the 102 to 109 degree range. As such, have continued
to maintain the excessive heat warning and heat advisory we have in
effect until 9PM. Relief from the heat however, will be on the way
this evening in the form of a cold front. This morning, an upper
level low and associated upper trough is moving through northern
Montana. This upper trough will swing into the northern Plains today
forcing the cold front into northwestern Missouri around 00Z. Model
soundings suggest the cap will hold through the day today however,
it looks to weaken this evening. Thunderstorms will develop across
the area this evening as the cold front begins to move through the
area. Organized severe potential looks low at this time as forcing
and shear (both 1km and 6km) look weak. Instability, however, will
continue to be strong with 2000-3000J/kg of MUCAPE across northern
Missouri. That being the case, there will be the possibility of
isolated severe storms capable of producing damaging winds and
perhaps some marginally severe hail. Although the set-up does not
scream flash flooding, with PWAT values hovering around 2" any
stronger storms that do develop should be efficient rain producers
and could be capable of producing local flash flooding. This front
will then continue to sink across the forecast area overnight with
storms weakening. These storms are expected to exit the area by
early Wednesday morning. Surface high pressure will then look to
build into the area Wednesday afternoon bring lower humidity and
much more pleasant highs in the low to mid 80s.

Wednesday night Saturday:

Surface high pressure will remain in place through Friday keeping
conditions dry. Temperatures will be seasonable with highs in the
mid 80s to around 90 on Thursday and Friday. Saturday, we will being
to see a pattern shift as an upper level ridge that is entrench over
much of the southern CONUS through the end of the work week will
begin to shift to the west and build. This will put the area on the
periphery of the lee side of the ridge. Highs Saturday will still
remain in the mid 80s to near 90.

Saturday night - Tuesday:

This period looks to potentially be more active as the area remains
on the eastern edge of the ridge over the western CONUS. Although
there is little agreement on timing between the GFS and EC, both
models do suggest several shortwave will round the ridge and bring a
few rounds of thunderstorms to the area through this period.
Although much will depend on the evolution of any thunderstorms
activity, highs Sunday and Monday are forecast to range from the mid
80s to the lower 90s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. A front will move
into the area late in the forecast period, likely between 00Z and
06Z, with times closer to 06Z for the Kansas City area terminals.
There is still a fair amount of uncertainty withhow far southwest
convection can develop along the front given that it looks like the
cap will remain in place.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ057-
     060-103>105.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-102.

MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ028-
     029-037>040-043>046-053-054.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ005>008-013>017-
     020>025-030>033.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...CDB


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KSGF 280820
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
320 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The main concern will be heat index values again today. An upper
level ridge axis will shift east into MO today ahead of a strong
shortwave moving moving east through the northern Plains. Will
maintain the excessive heat headlines intact. Preliminary fcst has
afternoon max afternoon heat index more reflective of
advisory/borderline warning criteria 101 to 107 deg F (over
several days), but not going to rock the boat in terms of changing
ongoing headlines.

An axis of low level convergence shifts farther east today and
will only carry small pops over the eastern cwfa for pulse
convection. Mid levels are progged to be warmer and overall column
instability is not expected to be as strong as the past couple of
days.

By late tonight, convection associated with the trailing sfc cold
front associated with the shortwave is expected to reach northern
MO into northeast/central KS, but more significant chances for
convection should remain northwest of the region through 12z Wed.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The sfc front will drop south into the area Wed, increasingly
losing it`s convective punch underneath upper level ridging. Will
still carry pops for Wed midday/afternoon with peak heating and
sfc convergence over the region.

Some heat headlines may be needed for the southeast cwfa Wed, but
given at least marginal chances for convection and borderline heat
index values, will let day shift coordinate a possible extension.
Much of the cwfa will see a bit of a cool down in terms of the
heat index values.

The upper ridge is expected to retrograde back to the west putting
us back in a weak nw upper level flow pattern by late Thursday
onward into the weekend. Initially, weak sfc high pressure over
the area should keep better chances for convection s-sw of the
area Thu/Thu night into Fri. Actually through the weekend there
aren`t any signals for significant precip chances. Some
indications exist for a possible approaching front associated with
a shortwave moving southeast out of Canada, but the ECMWF differs
in holding the the subtropical ridge in place much more strongly.
For now, will keeps pops low/nil Thu-Mon with a modest warming trend
(but with overall lower dew points).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Tuesday evening.
Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon
across portions of south-central Missouri. We have included a
PROB30 group at Branson to cover this potential threat. Light winds
tonight will increase out of the south to southwest on Tuesday.
Winds will increase to around 13 knots at Joplin.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 280820
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
320 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The main concern will be heat index values again today. An upper
level ridge axis will shift east into MO today ahead of a strong
shortwave moving moving east through the northern Plains. Will
maintain the excessive heat headlines intact. Preliminary fcst has
afternoon max afternoon heat index more reflective of
advisory/borderline warning criteria 101 to 107 deg F (over
several days), but not going to rock the boat in terms of changing
ongoing headlines.

An axis of low level convergence shifts farther east today and
will only carry small pops over the eastern cwfa for pulse
convection. Mid levels are progged to be warmer and overall column
instability is not expected to be as strong as the past couple of
days.

By late tonight, convection associated with the trailing sfc cold
front associated with the shortwave is expected to reach northern
MO into northeast/central KS, but more significant chances for
convection should remain northwest of the region through 12z Wed.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The sfc front will drop south into the area Wed, increasingly
losing it`s convective punch underneath upper level ridging. Will
still carry pops for Wed midday/afternoon with peak heating and
sfc convergence over the region.

Some heat headlines may be needed for the southeast cwfa Wed, but
given at least marginal chances for convection and borderline heat
index values, will let day shift coordinate a possible extension.
Much of the cwfa will see a bit of a cool down in terms of the
heat index values.

The upper ridge is expected to retrograde back to the west putting
us back in a weak nw upper level flow pattern by late Thursday
onward into the weekend. Initially, weak sfc high pressure over
the area should keep better chances for convection s-sw of the
area Thu/Thu night into Fri. Actually through the weekend there
aren`t any signals for significant precip chances. Some
indications exist for a possible approaching front associated with
a shortwave moving southeast out of Canada, but the ECMWF differs
in holding the the subtropical ridge in place much more strongly.
For now, will keeps pops low/nil Thu-Mon with a modest warming trend
(but with overall lower dew points).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Tuesday evening.
Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon
across portions of south-central Missouri. We have included a
PROB30 group at Branson to cover this potential threat. Light winds
tonight will increase out of the south to southwest on Tuesday.
Winds will increase to around 13 knots at Joplin.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 280820
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
320 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The main concern will be heat index values again today. An upper
level ridge axis will shift east into MO today ahead of a strong
shortwave moving moving east through the northern Plains. Will
maintain the excessive heat headlines intact. Preliminary fcst has
afternoon max afternoon heat index more reflective of
advisory/borderline warning criteria 101 to 107 deg F (over
several days), but not going to rock the boat in terms of changing
ongoing headlines.

An axis of low level convergence shifts farther east today and
will only carry small pops over the eastern cwfa for pulse
convection. Mid levels are progged to be warmer and overall column
instability is not expected to be as strong as the past couple of
days.

By late tonight, convection associated with the trailing sfc cold
front associated with the shortwave is expected to reach northern
MO into northeast/central KS, but more significant chances for
convection should remain northwest of the region through 12z Wed.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The sfc front will drop south into the area Wed, increasingly
losing it`s convective punch underneath upper level ridging. Will
still carry pops for Wed midday/afternoon with peak heating and
sfc convergence over the region.

Some heat headlines may be needed for the southeast cwfa Wed, but
given at least marginal chances for convection and borderline heat
index values, will let day shift coordinate a possible extension.
Much of the cwfa will see a bit of a cool down in terms of the
heat index values.

The upper ridge is expected to retrograde back to the west putting
us back in a weak nw upper level flow pattern by late Thursday
onward into the weekend. Initially, weak sfc high pressure over
the area should keep better chances for convection s-sw of the
area Thu/Thu night into Fri. Actually through the weekend there
aren`t any signals for significant precip chances. Some
indications exist for a possible approaching front associated with
a shortwave moving southeast out of Canada, but the ECMWF differs
in holding the the subtropical ridge in place much more strongly.
For now, will keeps pops low/nil Thu-Mon with a modest warming trend
(but with overall lower dew points).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Tuesday evening.
Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon
across portions of south-central Missouri. We have included a
PROB30 group at Branson to cover this potential threat. Light winds
tonight will increase out of the south to southwest on Tuesday.
Winds will increase to around 13 knots at Joplin.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 280820
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
320 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The main concern will be heat index values again today. An upper
level ridge axis will shift east into MO today ahead of a strong
shortwave moving moving east through the northern Plains. Will
maintain the excessive heat headlines intact. Preliminary fcst has
afternoon max afternoon heat index more reflective of
advisory/borderline warning criteria 101 to 107 deg F (over
several days), but not going to rock the boat in terms of changing
ongoing headlines.

An axis of low level convergence shifts farther east today and
will only carry small pops over the eastern cwfa for pulse
convection. Mid levels are progged to be warmer and overall column
instability is not expected to be as strong as the past couple of
days.

By late tonight, convection associated with the trailing sfc cold
front associated with the shortwave is expected to reach northern
MO into northeast/central KS, but more significant chances for
convection should remain northwest of the region through 12z Wed.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The sfc front will drop south into the area Wed, increasingly
losing it`s convective punch underneath upper level ridging. Will
still carry pops for Wed midday/afternoon with peak heating and
sfc convergence over the region.

Some heat headlines may be needed for the southeast cwfa Wed, but
given at least marginal chances for convection and borderline heat
index values, will let day shift coordinate a possible extension.
Much of the cwfa will see a bit of a cool down in terms of the
heat index values.

The upper ridge is expected to retrograde back to the west putting
us back in a weak nw upper level flow pattern by late Thursday
onward into the weekend. Initially, weak sfc high pressure over
the area should keep better chances for convection s-sw of the
area Thu/Thu night into Fri. Actually through the weekend there
aren`t any signals for significant precip chances. Some
indications exist for a possible approaching front associated with
a shortwave moving southeast out of Canada, but the ECMWF differs
in holding the the subtropical ridge in place much more strongly.
For now, will keeps pops low/nil Thu-Mon with a modest warming trend
(but with overall lower dew points).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Tuesday evening.
Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon
across portions of south-central Missouri. We have included a
PROB30 group at Branson to cover this potential threat. Light winds
tonight will increase out of the south to southwest on Tuesday.
Winds will increase to around 13 knots at Joplin.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 280504
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1204 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1008 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

We have had a few thunderstorms develop within the last 45 minutes
in the Fort Leonard Wood and Rolla areas. Inspection of the 00Z
KSGF RAOB indicates that parcels lifted in the 850 to 825 mb layer
have fairly weak inhibition to overcome. Meanwhile, a low level
jet will continue to impinge on western Missouri overnight.
Isentropic upglide with this feature will be enough to overcome
this weak inhibition and produce isolated thunderstorms overnight
primarily across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. One
other player may be an outflow boundary sliding southwestward
through central Missouri. That feature may also interact with the
low level jet to produce a few thunderstorms.

Updated products have already been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Very little change to the going forecast this afternoon, with
excessive heat expected to continue through mid week, before some
relief arrives with the approach of a cold front.

Starting out this afternoon, isolated thunderstorms have again
developed over the eastern Ozarks, where large scale subsidence
associated with the upper ridge doesn`t appear to be quite strong
enough to squash all updrafts.  This convection should remain fairly
isolated, and is expected to dissipate with sunset this evening.

Elsewhere, heat indices have again risen to between 100 and 110 this
afternoon, and will likely warm another couple of degrees by late
afternoon.  A very similar scenario is expected for Tuesday, with
highs again in the mid to upper 90s, with mid 70s dewpoints
producing heat indices between 103 and 110.  Since tomorrow will be
at least the third day in a row of solid advisory heat, will go
ahead and upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning for the current
Advisory area, and an extension of the Warning where one is already
out.  While this the extension is really for tomorrow`s heat, will
make the upgrade this afternoon and continue it through tomorrow
evening for simplicity`s sake.  In the end, the message is that is
is hot, with significant risk of heat related illness if proper
precautions are not taken.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

By Wednesday, a stout shortwave currently moving across the northern
Rockies will continue east into the Great Lakes, helping to flatten
the upper level ridge and allow a cold front to move south through
the area.  Temperatures on Wednesday will still be warm, though some
increase in cloud cover should keep readings a bit lower, especially
over central Missouri.  Precipitation chances appear rather low with
this front, given fairly weak lift and an absence of good upper
level support.

Cooler, and perhaps more notably, much drier air is then expected
to build into the area Wednesday night, allowing lows to drop into
the mid 60s for the first time in some time.  Highs on Thursday and
Friday then look to be around normal for this time of year--upper
80s to around 90--but with dewpoints in the low 60s, it should feel
MUCH more comfortable than it has for the last week or two.

Temperatures should remain around seasonal averages through the
weekend, as the upper ridge is shunted back to the west and weak
northwest flow takes hold aloft. Right now, it appears that dewpoints
will remain low enough to preclude additional heat headlines.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Tuesday evening.
Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon
across portions of south-central Missouri. We have included a
PROB30 group at Branson to cover this potential threat. Light winds
tonight will increase out of the south to southwest on Tuesday.
Winds will increase to around 13 knots at Joplin.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 280504
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1204 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1008 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

We have had a few thunderstorms develop within the last 45 minutes
in the Fort Leonard Wood and Rolla areas. Inspection of the 00Z
KSGF RAOB indicates that parcels lifted in the 850 to 825 mb layer
have fairly weak inhibition to overcome. Meanwhile, a low level
jet will continue to impinge on western Missouri overnight.
Isentropic upglide with this feature will be enough to overcome
this weak inhibition and produce isolated thunderstorms overnight
primarily across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. One
other player may be an outflow boundary sliding southwestward
through central Missouri. That feature may also interact with the
low level jet to produce a few thunderstorms.

Updated products have already been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Very little change to the going forecast this afternoon, with
excessive heat expected to continue through mid week, before some
relief arrives with the approach of a cold front.

Starting out this afternoon, isolated thunderstorms have again
developed over the eastern Ozarks, where large scale subsidence
associated with the upper ridge doesn`t appear to be quite strong
enough to squash all updrafts.  This convection should remain fairly
isolated, and is expected to dissipate with sunset this evening.

Elsewhere, heat indices have again risen to between 100 and 110 this
afternoon, and will likely warm another couple of degrees by late
afternoon.  A very similar scenario is expected for Tuesday, with
highs again in the mid to upper 90s, with mid 70s dewpoints
producing heat indices between 103 and 110.  Since tomorrow will be
at least the third day in a row of solid advisory heat, will go
ahead and upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning for the current
Advisory area, and an extension of the Warning where one is already
out.  While this the extension is really for tomorrow`s heat, will
make the upgrade this afternoon and continue it through tomorrow
evening for simplicity`s sake.  In the end, the message is that is
is hot, with significant risk of heat related illness if proper
precautions are not taken.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

By Wednesday, a stout shortwave currently moving across the northern
Rockies will continue east into the Great Lakes, helping to flatten
the upper level ridge and allow a cold front to move south through
the area.  Temperatures on Wednesday will still be warm, though some
increase in cloud cover should keep readings a bit lower, especially
over central Missouri.  Precipitation chances appear rather low with
this front, given fairly weak lift and an absence of good upper
level support.

Cooler, and perhaps more notably, much drier air is then expected
to build into the area Wednesday night, allowing lows to drop into
the mid 60s for the first time in some time.  Highs on Thursday and
Friday then look to be around normal for this time of year--upper
80s to around 90--but with dewpoints in the low 60s, it should feel
MUCH more comfortable than it has for the last week or two.

Temperatures should remain around seasonal averages through the
weekend, as the upper ridge is shunted back to the west and weak
northwest flow takes hold aloft. Right now, it appears that dewpoints
will remain low enough to preclude additional heat headlines.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Tuesday evening.
Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon
across portions of south-central Missouri. We have included a
PROB30 group at Branson to cover this potential threat. Light winds
tonight will increase out of the south to southwest on Tuesday.
Winds will increase to around 13 knots at Joplin.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 280504
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1204 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1008 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

We have had a few thunderstorms develop within the last 45 minutes
in the Fort Leonard Wood and Rolla areas. Inspection of the 00Z
KSGF RAOB indicates that parcels lifted in the 850 to 825 mb layer
have fairly weak inhibition to overcome. Meanwhile, a low level
jet will continue to impinge on western Missouri overnight.
Isentropic upglide with this feature will be enough to overcome
this weak inhibition and produce isolated thunderstorms overnight
primarily across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. One
other player may be an outflow boundary sliding southwestward
through central Missouri. That feature may also interact with the
low level jet to produce a few thunderstorms.

Updated products have already been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Very little change to the going forecast this afternoon, with
excessive heat expected to continue through mid week, before some
relief arrives with the approach of a cold front.

Starting out this afternoon, isolated thunderstorms have again
developed over the eastern Ozarks, where large scale subsidence
associated with the upper ridge doesn`t appear to be quite strong
enough to squash all updrafts.  This convection should remain fairly
isolated, and is expected to dissipate with sunset this evening.

Elsewhere, heat indices have again risen to between 100 and 110 this
afternoon, and will likely warm another couple of degrees by late
afternoon.  A very similar scenario is expected for Tuesday, with
highs again in the mid to upper 90s, with mid 70s dewpoints
producing heat indices between 103 and 110.  Since tomorrow will be
at least the third day in a row of solid advisory heat, will go
ahead and upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning for the current
Advisory area, and an extension of the Warning where one is already
out.  While this the extension is really for tomorrow`s heat, will
make the upgrade this afternoon and continue it through tomorrow
evening for simplicity`s sake.  In the end, the message is that is
is hot, with significant risk of heat related illness if proper
precautions are not taken.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

By Wednesday, a stout shortwave currently moving across the northern
Rockies will continue east into the Great Lakes, helping to flatten
the upper level ridge and allow a cold front to move south through
the area.  Temperatures on Wednesday will still be warm, though some
increase in cloud cover should keep readings a bit lower, especially
over central Missouri.  Precipitation chances appear rather low with
this front, given fairly weak lift and an absence of good upper
level support.

Cooler, and perhaps more notably, much drier air is then expected
to build into the area Wednesday night, allowing lows to drop into
the mid 60s for the first time in some time.  Highs on Thursday and
Friday then look to be around normal for this time of year--upper
80s to around 90--but with dewpoints in the low 60s, it should feel
MUCH more comfortable than it has for the last week or two.

Temperatures should remain around seasonal averages through the
weekend, as the upper ridge is shunted back to the west and weak
northwest flow takes hold aloft. Right now, it appears that dewpoints
will remain low enough to preclude additional heat headlines.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Tuesday evening.
Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon
across portions of south-central Missouri. We have included a
PROB30 group at Branson to cover this potential threat. Light winds
tonight will increase out of the south to southwest on Tuesday.
Winds will increase to around 13 knots at Joplin.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KEAX 280447
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1147 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 416 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Tonight - Wednesday:

Most likely the most active portion of the next 7 days spanning
oppressive heat and humidity with active convection.

For the late afternoon into the early evening hours will focus on
convection developing along a weak warm front best seen in visible
satellite imagery. This boundary extends from the intersection of an
outflow boundary from the IA thunderstorm complex along the MO/IA
border northwest of IRK southeast through northeast Macon county.
Expect convection to develop/roll southeast along this boundary for
the next few hours. Gusty winds to 50 mph and very heavy rainfall.

The rest of the CWA can expect a quiet but sultry night which will
transition to oppressive heat and humidity on Tuesday. No change is
expected in the airmass for tomorrow...and likely even a tad hotter
as 925mb temperatures increase by 1-2C due to a more westerly
component to the boundary layer winds. Given a 4th day of these
conditions for a handful of additional counties have expanded the
Excessive Heat Warning eastward and extended the current advisory
for all but the far northwest CWA through 02z Wednesday.

The weather will become active again beginning late Tuesday
afternoon and continuing through the night. As noted yesterday a
fairly stout mid/upper level shortwave will track east across the
Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley flattening the upper level ridge
axis in the process. Falling heights will allow an associated cold
front to press southeast, reaching far northwest MO by late
afternoon. Operational models have slowed the advancement of the
front a tad but are in good agreement on timing through Tuesday
night. Expect at least a broken convective line to form in response
to MUCAPES in excess of 3000J/kg and modest low level convergence.
While the 0-6km bulk shear of 20-30kt is marginal for supporting
rotating updrafts believe the high instability may be sufficient for
a few severe cells. After peaking by late evening expect the
activity to gradually weaken as it slides southeast overnight. So
highest PoPs will be across the northern 1/2 of the CWA.

Will leave low chance PoPs across the southern CWA Wednesday morning
as the cold front exits the region. Cooler temperatures, i.e. read
seasonal, and drier air will be ushered in by weak high pressure.

Thursday - Monday:

The Central/Southern Plains dome of high pressure will retrograde
westward with general troughing from Hudson Bay through the OH
Valley. This will leave northwest flow from the Northern Rockies
through the Mid MO Valley. Operational models are pretty clear on
this overall flow pattern. What isn`t clear or at least they can`t
agree on timing and location are the weak/embedded
shortwaves/vorticity maxima which typically accompany this type of
pattern. Also don`t see any discernible frontal boundaries. With
that in mind will stick with a blended model approach with any rain
chances more likely across the northern CWA which will be closest to
the stronger upper flow. Expect seasonal temperatures during this
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. A front will move
into the area late in the forecast period, likely between 00Z and
06Z, with times closer to 06Z for the Kansas City area terminals.
There is still a fair amount of uncertainty withhow far southwest
convection can develop along the front given that it looks like the
cap will remain in place.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ057-060-
     103>105.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ025-102.

MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ028-029-
     037>040-043>046-053-054.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ005>008-013>017-
     020>025-030>033.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...CDB



000
FXUS63 KEAX 280447
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1147 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 416 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Tonight - Wednesday:

Most likely the most active portion of the next 7 days spanning
oppressive heat and humidity with active convection.

For the late afternoon into the early evening hours will focus on
convection developing along a weak warm front best seen in visible
satellite imagery. This boundary extends from the intersection of an
outflow boundary from the IA thunderstorm complex along the MO/IA
border northwest of IRK southeast through northeast Macon county.
Expect convection to develop/roll southeast along this boundary for
the next few hours. Gusty winds to 50 mph and very heavy rainfall.

The rest of the CWA can expect a quiet but sultry night which will
transition to oppressive heat and humidity on Tuesday. No change is
expected in the airmass for tomorrow...and likely even a tad hotter
as 925mb temperatures increase by 1-2C due to a more westerly
component to the boundary layer winds. Given a 4th day of these
conditions for a handful of additional counties have expanded the
Excessive Heat Warning eastward and extended the current advisory
for all but the far northwest CWA through 02z Wednesday.

The weather will become active again beginning late Tuesday
afternoon and continuing through the night. As noted yesterday a
fairly stout mid/upper level shortwave will track east across the
Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley flattening the upper level ridge
axis in the process. Falling heights will allow an associated cold
front to press southeast, reaching far northwest MO by late
afternoon. Operational models have slowed the advancement of the
front a tad but are in good agreement on timing through Tuesday
night. Expect at least a broken convective line to form in response
to MUCAPES in excess of 3000J/kg and modest low level convergence.
While the 0-6km bulk shear of 20-30kt is marginal for supporting
rotating updrafts believe the high instability may be sufficient for
a few severe cells. After peaking by late evening expect the
activity to gradually weaken as it slides southeast overnight. So
highest PoPs will be across the northern 1/2 of the CWA.

Will leave low chance PoPs across the southern CWA Wednesday morning
as the cold front exits the region. Cooler temperatures, i.e. read
seasonal, and drier air will be ushered in by weak high pressure.

Thursday - Monday:

The Central/Southern Plains dome of high pressure will retrograde
westward with general troughing from Hudson Bay through the OH
Valley. This will leave northwest flow from the Northern Rockies
through the Mid MO Valley. Operational models are pretty clear on
this overall flow pattern. What isn`t clear or at least they can`t
agree on timing and location are the weak/embedded
shortwaves/vorticity maxima which typically accompany this type of
pattern. Also don`t see any discernible frontal boundaries. With
that in mind will stick with a blended model approach with any rain
chances more likely across the northern CWA which will be closest to
the stronger upper flow. Expect seasonal temperatures during this
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. A front will move
into the area late in the forecast period, likely between 00Z and
06Z, with times closer to 06Z for the Kansas City area terminals.
There is still a fair amount of uncertainty withhow far southwest
convection can develop along the front given that it looks like the
cap will remain in place.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ057-060-
     103>105.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ025-102.

MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ028-029-
     037>040-043>046-053-054.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ005>008-013>017-
     020>025-030>033.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...CDB




000
FXUS63 KEAX 280447
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1147 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 416 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Tonight - Wednesday:

Most likely the most active portion of the next 7 days spanning
oppressive heat and humidity with active convection.

For the late afternoon into the early evening hours will focus on
convection developing along a weak warm front best seen in visible
satellite imagery. This boundary extends from the intersection of an
outflow boundary from the IA thunderstorm complex along the MO/IA
border northwest of IRK southeast through northeast Macon county.
Expect convection to develop/roll southeast along this boundary for
the next few hours. Gusty winds to 50 mph and very heavy rainfall.

The rest of the CWA can expect a quiet but sultry night which will
transition to oppressive heat and humidity on Tuesday. No change is
expected in the airmass for tomorrow...and likely even a tad hotter
as 925mb temperatures increase by 1-2C due to a more westerly
component to the boundary layer winds. Given a 4th day of these
conditions for a handful of additional counties have expanded the
Excessive Heat Warning eastward and extended the current advisory
for all but the far northwest CWA through 02z Wednesday.

The weather will become active again beginning late Tuesday
afternoon and continuing through the night. As noted yesterday a
fairly stout mid/upper level shortwave will track east across the
Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley flattening the upper level ridge
axis in the process. Falling heights will allow an associated cold
front to press southeast, reaching far northwest MO by late
afternoon. Operational models have slowed the advancement of the
front a tad but are in good agreement on timing through Tuesday
night. Expect at least a broken convective line to form in response
to MUCAPES in excess of 3000J/kg and modest low level convergence.
While the 0-6km bulk shear of 20-30kt is marginal for supporting
rotating updrafts believe the high instability may be sufficient for
a few severe cells. After peaking by late evening expect the
activity to gradually weaken as it slides southeast overnight. So
highest PoPs will be across the northern 1/2 of the CWA.

Will leave low chance PoPs across the southern CWA Wednesday morning
as the cold front exits the region. Cooler temperatures, i.e. read
seasonal, and drier air will be ushered in by weak high pressure.

Thursday - Monday:

The Central/Southern Plains dome of high pressure will retrograde
westward with general troughing from Hudson Bay through the OH
Valley. This will leave northwest flow from the Northern Rockies
through the Mid MO Valley. Operational models are pretty clear on
this overall flow pattern. What isn`t clear or at least they can`t
agree on timing and location are the weak/embedded
shortwaves/vorticity maxima which typically accompany this type of
pattern. Also don`t see any discernible frontal boundaries. With
that in mind will stick with a blended model approach with any rain
chances more likely across the northern CWA which will be closest to
the stronger upper flow. Expect seasonal temperatures during this
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. A front will move
into the area late in the forecast period, likely between 00Z and
06Z, with times closer to 06Z for the Kansas City area terminals.
There is still a fair amount of uncertainty withhow far southwest
convection can develop along the front given that it looks like the
cap will remain in place.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ057-060-
     103>105.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ025-102.

MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ028-029-
     037>040-043>046-053-054.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ005>008-013>017-
     020>025-030>033.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...CDB



000
FXUS63 KLSX 280357
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1057 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS FORECAST AREA TO LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT
STALLING OUT JUST EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL SEE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. HOT
AND HUMID WEATHER TO PERSIST WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE 70S.

BYRD

.LONG TERM: (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY) ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT
MON JUL 27 2015

(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

WILL BE UPGRADING THE WESTERN...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PART OF THE
AREA INCLUDING THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.  SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE HAD HEAT INDEX
VALUES REACH 110 DEGREES TODAY INCLUDING MISSOURI MESONET LOCATIONS
AS WELL AS LAMBERT FIELD.  QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT HAS LINGERED OVER
THE AREA TODAY AS WELL AS SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH HAS
ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO POOL AND VALUES TO CLIMB TO AROUND 80 IN SOME
CASES.  THERE HAS ALSO BEEN ENOUGH SUNSHINE FOR TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS.  SET UP TOMORROW WILL
BE MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH THE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA AND ENOUGH SUN TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 90S AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING MIXING ABOVE 850MB.  EXPECT HEAT INDEX VALUES TO CLIMB INTO
THE 105 TO 110+ RANGE AGAIN TOMORROW SUPPORTING THE ADVISORY AND
WARNING.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE CAPPING WITH THE BOUNDARY
IN PLACE...HOWEVER THE UPPER HIGH WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA SO
THINK THIS WILL LIMIT COVERAGE TO JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA.  LATEST RUNS SUPPORT THE FRONT MOVING QUICKLY
ENOUGH THE AREA THAT THE ADVISORY/WARNING WILL NOT NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AREA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO
MOVE IN.

(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ECMWF AND GFS STILL LOOK SIMILAR DURING THIS PERIOD AS NORTWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA.  THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS DRY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, BOTH MODELS ARE STILL
INDICATING THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EITHER
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.  THE GFS IS ALSO DEPICTING SOME LIGHT QPF
OVER THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT, BUT THE ECMWF IS NOT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF 15-20C.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONLY ISOLATED TSRA REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO. SHORT WAVE LIFTING
NORTH AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. ONE WOULD THINK THIS
WOULD PRODUCE A MOSTLY DRY DAY TUESDAY AS ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
BE WELL NORTH OF MO. HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO FIRE UP SCATTERED
TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN MO AND WESTERN IL. IT
WILL NOT TAKE MUCH IN THIS HOT, HUMID, UNSTABLE AIR MASS. A
VICINITY FOR UIN, SUS AND CPS WOULD WILL BE THE BEST I CAN DO FOR
NOW. EXPECT SOME MORNING FOG AGAIN AS WELL.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: ISOLATED TSRA HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND SHOULD STAY
THERE. WHAT LIFT THAT IS LEFT APPEARS TO BE BETTER ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MO. MODELS AGAIN DEVELOP ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS EASTERN MO
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL THROW IN A VICINITY TO COVER.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR BOONE MO-
     CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-
     IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-MONITEAU MO-
     MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-REYNOLDS MO-ST. CHARLES MO-ST.
     FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE
     MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-KNOX MO-
     LEWIS MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR CALHOUN IL-
     JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-MONROE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-BROWN
     IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MARION IL-
     MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-WASHINGTON IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 280357
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1057 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS FORECAST AREA TO LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT
STALLING OUT JUST EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL SEE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. HOT
AND HUMID WEATHER TO PERSIST WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE 70S.

BYRD

.LONG TERM: (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY) ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT
MON JUL 27 2015

(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

WILL BE UPGRADING THE WESTERN...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PART OF THE
AREA INCLUDING THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.  SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE HAD HEAT INDEX
VALUES REACH 110 DEGREES TODAY INCLUDING MISSOURI MESONET LOCATIONS
AS WELL AS LAMBERT FIELD.  QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT HAS LINGERED OVER
THE AREA TODAY AS WELL AS SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH HAS
ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO POOL AND VALUES TO CLIMB TO AROUND 80 IN SOME
CASES.  THERE HAS ALSO BEEN ENOUGH SUNSHINE FOR TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS.  SET UP TOMORROW WILL
BE MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH THE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA AND ENOUGH SUN TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 90S AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING MIXING ABOVE 850MB.  EXPECT HEAT INDEX VALUES TO CLIMB INTO
THE 105 TO 110+ RANGE AGAIN TOMORROW SUPPORTING THE ADVISORY AND
WARNING.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE CAPPING WITH THE BOUNDARY
IN PLACE...HOWEVER THE UPPER HIGH WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA SO
THINK THIS WILL LIMIT COVERAGE TO JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA.  LATEST RUNS SUPPORT THE FRONT MOVING QUICKLY
ENOUGH THE AREA THAT THE ADVISORY/WARNING WILL NOT NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AREA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO
MOVE IN.

(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ECMWF AND GFS STILL LOOK SIMILAR DURING THIS PERIOD AS NORTWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA.  THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS DRY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, BOTH MODELS ARE STILL
INDICATING THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EITHER
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.  THE GFS IS ALSO DEPICTING SOME LIGHT QPF
OVER THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT, BUT THE ECMWF IS NOT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF 15-20C.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONLY ISOLATED TSRA REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO. SHORT WAVE LIFTING
NORTH AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. ONE WOULD THINK THIS
WOULD PRODUCE A MOSTLY DRY DAY TUESDAY AS ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
BE WELL NORTH OF MO. HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO FIRE UP SCATTERED
TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN MO AND WESTERN IL. IT
WILL NOT TAKE MUCH IN THIS HOT, HUMID, UNSTABLE AIR MASS. A
VICINITY FOR UIN, SUS AND CPS WOULD WILL BE THE BEST I CAN DO FOR
NOW. EXPECT SOME MORNING FOG AGAIN AS WELL.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: ISOLATED TSRA HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND SHOULD STAY
THERE. WHAT LIFT THAT IS LEFT APPEARS TO BE BETTER ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MO. MODELS AGAIN DEVELOP ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS EASTERN MO
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL THROW IN A VICINITY TO COVER.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR BOONE MO-
     CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-
     IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-MONITEAU MO-
     MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-REYNOLDS MO-ST. CHARLES MO-ST.
     FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE
     MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-KNOX MO-
     LEWIS MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR CALHOUN IL-
     JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-MONROE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-BROWN
     IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MARION IL-
     MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-WASHINGTON IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KSGF 280327
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1027 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

...Updated to Insert Isolated Thunderstorms Overnight...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1008 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

We have had a few thunderstorms develop within the last 45 minutes
in the Fort Leonard Wood and Rolla areas. Inspection of the 00Z
KSGF RAOB indicates that parcels lifted in the 850 to 825 mb layer
have fairly weak inhibition to overcome. Meanwhile, a low level
jet will continue to impinge on western Missouri overnight.
Isentropic upglide with this feature will be enough to overcome
this weak inhibition and produce isolated thunderstorms overnight
primarily across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. One
other player may be an outflow boundary sliding southwestward
through central Missouri. That feature may also interact with the
low level jet to produce a few thunderstorms.

Updated products have already been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Very little change to the going forecast this afternoon, with
excessive heat expected to continue through mid week, before some
relief arrives with the approach of a cold front.

Starting out this afternoon, isolated thunderstorms have again
developed over the eastern Ozarks, where large scale subsidence
associated with the upper ridge doesn`t appear to be quite strong
enough to squash all updrafts.  This convection should remain fairly
isolated, and is expected to dissipate with sunset this evening.

Elsewhere, heat indices have again risen to between 100 and 110 this
afternoon, and will likely warm another couple of degrees by late
afternoon.  A very similar scenario is expected for Tuesday, with
highs again in the mid to upper 90s, with mid 70s dewpoints
producing heat indices between 103 and 110.  Since tomorrow will be
at least the third day in a row of solid advisory heat, will go
ahead and upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning for the current
Advisory area, and an extension of the Warning where one is already
out.  While this the extension is really for tomorrow`s heat, will
make the upgrade this afternoon and continue it through tomorrow
evening for simplicity`s sake.  In the end, the message is that is
is hot, with significant risk of heat related illness if proper
precautions are not taken.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

By Wednesday, a stout shortwave currently moving across the northern
Rockies will continue east into the Great Lakes, helping to flatten
the upper level ridge and allow a cold front to move south through
the area.  Temperatures on Wednesday will still be warm, though some
increase in cloud cover should keep readings a bit lower, especially
over central Missouri.  Precipitation chances appear rather low with
this front, given fairly weak lift and an absence of good upper
level support.

Cooler, and perhaps more notably, much drier air is then expected
to build into the area Wednesday night, allowing lows to drop into
the mid 60s for the first time in some time.  Highs on Thursday and
Friday then look to be around normal for this time of year--upper
80s to around 90--but with dewpoints in the low 60s, it should feel
MUCH more comfortable than it has for the last week or two.

Temperatures should remain around seasonal averages through the
weekend, as the upper ridge is shunted back to the west and weak
northwest flow takes hold aloft. Right now, it appears that dewpoints
will remain low enough to preclude additional heat headlines.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions will continue through Tuesday with mostly clear
skies. Winds will remain light out of the south tonight and will
increase a bit on Tuesday with speeds around 12 knots at Joplin.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 280327
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1027 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

...Updated to Insert Isolated Thunderstorms Overnight...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1008 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

We have had a few thunderstorms develop within the last 45 minutes
in the Fort Leonard Wood and Rolla areas. Inspection of the 00Z
KSGF RAOB indicates that parcels lifted in the 850 to 825 mb layer
have fairly weak inhibition to overcome. Meanwhile, a low level
jet will continue to impinge on western Missouri overnight.
Isentropic upglide with this feature will be enough to overcome
this weak inhibition and produce isolated thunderstorms overnight
primarily across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. One
other player may be an outflow boundary sliding southwestward
through central Missouri. That feature may also interact with the
low level jet to produce a few thunderstorms.

Updated products have already been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Very little change to the going forecast this afternoon, with
excessive heat expected to continue through mid week, before some
relief arrives with the approach of a cold front.

Starting out this afternoon, isolated thunderstorms have again
developed over the eastern Ozarks, where large scale subsidence
associated with the upper ridge doesn`t appear to be quite strong
enough to squash all updrafts.  This convection should remain fairly
isolated, and is expected to dissipate with sunset this evening.

Elsewhere, heat indices have again risen to between 100 and 110 this
afternoon, and will likely warm another couple of degrees by late
afternoon.  A very similar scenario is expected for Tuesday, with
highs again in the mid to upper 90s, with mid 70s dewpoints
producing heat indices between 103 and 110.  Since tomorrow will be
at least the third day in a row of solid advisory heat, will go
ahead and upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning for the current
Advisory area, and an extension of the Warning where one is already
out.  While this the extension is really for tomorrow`s heat, will
make the upgrade this afternoon and continue it through tomorrow
evening for simplicity`s sake.  In the end, the message is that is
is hot, with significant risk of heat related illness if proper
precautions are not taken.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

By Wednesday, a stout shortwave currently moving across the northern
Rockies will continue east into the Great Lakes, helping to flatten
the upper level ridge and allow a cold front to move south through
the area.  Temperatures on Wednesday will still be warm, though some
increase in cloud cover should keep readings a bit lower, especially
over central Missouri.  Precipitation chances appear rather low with
this front, given fairly weak lift and an absence of good upper
level support.

Cooler, and perhaps more notably, much drier air is then expected
to build into the area Wednesday night, allowing lows to drop into
the mid 60s for the first time in some time.  Highs on Thursday and
Friday then look to be around normal for this time of year--upper
80s to around 90--but with dewpoints in the low 60s, it should feel
MUCH more comfortable than it has for the last week or two.

Temperatures should remain around seasonal averages through the
weekend, as the upper ridge is shunted back to the west and weak
northwest flow takes hold aloft. Right now, it appears that dewpoints
will remain low enough to preclude additional heat headlines.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions will continue through Tuesday with mostly clear
skies. Winds will remain light out of the south tonight and will
increase a bit on Tuesday with speeds around 12 knots at Joplin.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 272348
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
648 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Very little change to the going forecast this afternoon, with
excessive heat expected to continue through mid week, before some
relief arrives with the approach of a cold front.

Starting out this afternoon, isolated thunderstorms have again
developed over the eastern Ozarks, where large scale subsidence
associated with the upper ridge doesn`t appear to be quite strong
enough to squash all updrafts.  This convection should remain fairly
isolated, and is expected to dissipate with sunset this evening.

Elsewhere, heat indices have again risen to between 100 and 110 this
afternoon, and will likely warm another couple of degrees by late
afternoon.  A very similar scenario is expected for Tuesday, with
highs again in the mid to upper 90s, with mid 70s dewpoints
producing heat indices between 103 and 110.  Since tomorrow will be
at least the third day in a row of solid advisory heat, will go
ahead and upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning for the current
Advisory area, and an extension of the Warning where one is already
out.  While this the extension is really for tomorrow`s heat, will
make the upgrade this afternoon and continue it through tomorrow
evening for simplicity`s sake.  In the end, the message is that is
is hot, with significant risk of heat related illness if proper
precautions are not taken.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

By Wednesday, a stout shortwave currently moving across the northern
Rockies will continue east into the Great Lakes, helping to flatten
the upper level ridge and allow a cold front to move south through
the area.  Temperatures on Wednesday will still be warm, though some
increase in cloud cover should keep readings a bit lower, especially
over central Missouri.  Precipitation chances appear rather low with
this front, given fairly weak lift and an absence of good upper
level support.

Cooler, and perhaps more notably, much drier air is then expected
to build into the area Wednesday night, allowing lows to drop into
the mid 60s for the first time in some time.  Highs on Thursday and
Friday then look to be around normal for this time of year--upper
80s to around 90--but with dewpoints in the low 60s, it should feel
MUCH more comfortable than it has for the last week or two.

Temperatures should remain around seasonal averages through the
weekend, as the upper ridge is shunted back to the west and weak
northwest flow takes hold aloft. Right now, it appears that dewpoints
will remain low enough to preclude additional heat headlines.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions will continue through Tuesday with mostly clear
skies. Winds will remain light out of the south tonight and will
increase a bit on Tuesday with speeds around 12 knots at Joplin.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 272348
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
648 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Very little change to the going forecast this afternoon, with
excessive heat expected to continue through mid week, before some
relief arrives with the approach of a cold front.

Starting out this afternoon, isolated thunderstorms have again
developed over the eastern Ozarks, where large scale subsidence
associated with the upper ridge doesn`t appear to be quite strong
enough to squash all updrafts.  This convection should remain fairly
isolated, and is expected to dissipate with sunset this evening.

Elsewhere, heat indices have again risen to between 100 and 110 this
afternoon, and will likely warm another couple of degrees by late
afternoon.  A very similar scenario is expected for Tuesday, with
highs again in the mid to upper 90s, with mid 70s dewpoints
producing heat indices between 103 and 110.  Since tomorrow will be
at least the third day in a row of solid advisory heat, will go
ahead and upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning for the current
Advisory area, and an extension of the Warning where one is already
out.  While this the extension is really for tomorrow`s heat, will
make the upgrade this afternoon and continue it through tomorrow
evening for simplicity`s sake.  In the end, the message is that is
is hot, with significant risk of heat related illness if proper
precautions are not taken.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

By Wednesday, a stout shortwave currently moving across the northern
Rockies will continue east into the Great Lakes, helping to flatten
the upper level ridge and allow a cold front to move south through
the area.  Temperatures on Wednesday will still be warm, though some
increase in cloud cover should keep readings a bit lower, especially
over central Missouri.  Precipitation chances appear rather low with
this front, given fairly weak lift and an absence of good upper
level support.

Cooler, and perhaps more notably, much drier air is then expected
to build into the area Wednesday night, allowing lows to drop into
the mid 60s for the first time in some time.  Highs on Thursday and
Friday then look to be around normal for this time of year--upper
80s to around 90--but with dewpoints in the low 60s, it should feel
MUCH more comfortable than it has for the last week or two.

Temperatures should remain around seasonal averages through the
weekend, as the upper ridge is shunted back to the west and weak
northwest flow takes hold aloft. Right now, it appears that dewpoints
will remain low enough to preclude additional heat headlines.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions will continue through Tuesday with mostly clear
skies. Winds will remain light out of the south tonight and will
increase a bit on Tuesday with speeds around 12 knots at Joplin.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 272348
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
648 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Very little change to the going forecast this afternoon, with
excessive heat expected to continue through mid week, before some
relief arrives with the approach of a cold front.

Starting out this afternoon, isolated thunderstorms have again
developed over the eastern Ozarks, where large scale subsidence
associated with the upper ridge doesn`t appear to be quite strong
enough to squash all updrafts.  This convection should remain fairly
isolated, and is expected to dissipate with sunset this evening.

Elsewhere, heat indices have again risen to between 100 and 110 this
afternoon, and will likely warm another couple of degrees by late
afternoon.  A very similar scenario is expected for Tuesday, with
highs again in the mid to upper 90s, with mid 70s dewpoints
producing heat indices between 103 and 110.  Since tomorrow will be
at least the third day in a row of solid advisory heat, will go
ahead and upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning for the current
Advisory area, and an extension of the Warning where one is already
out.  While this the extension is really for tomorrow`s heat, will
make the upgrade this afternoon and continue it through tomorrow
evening for simplicity`s sake.  In the end, the message is that is
is hot, with significant risk of heat related illness if proper
precautions are not taken.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

By Wednesday, a stout shortwave currently moving across the northern
Rockies will continue east into the Great Lakes, helping to flatten
the upper level ridge and allow a cold front to move south through
the area.  Temperatures on Wednesday will still be warm, though some
increase in cloud cover should keep readings a bit lower, especially
over central Missouri.  Precipitation chances appear rather low with
this front, given fairly weak lift and an absence of good upper
level support.

Cooler, and perhaps more notably, much drier air is then expected
to build into the area Wednesday night, allowing lows to drop into
the mid 60s for the first time in some time.  Highs on Thursday and
Friday then look to be around normal for this time of year--upper
80s to around 90--but with dewpoints in the low 60s, it should feel
MUCH more comfortable than it has for the last week or two.

Temperatures should remain around seasonal averages through the
weekend, as the upper ridge is shunted back to the west and weak
northwest flow takes hold aloft. Right now, it appears that dewpoints
will remain low enough to preclude additional heat headlines.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions will continue through Tuesday with mostly clear
skies. Winds will remain light out of the south tonight and will
increase a bit on Tuesday with speeds around 12 knots at Joplin.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 272348
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
648 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Very little change to the going forecast this afternoon, with
excessive heat expected to continue through mid week, before some
relief arrives with the approach of a cold front.

Starting out this afternoon, isolated thunderstorms have again
developed over the eastern Ozarks, where large scale subsidence
associated with the upper ridge doesn`t appear to be quite strong
enough to squash all updrafts.  This convection should remain fairly
isolated, and is expected to dissipate with sunset this evening.

Elsewhere, heat indices have again risen to between 100 and 110 this
afternoon, and will likely warm another couple of degrees by late
afternoon.  A very similar scenario is expected for Tuesday, with
highs again in the mid to upper 90s, with mid 70s dewpoints
producing heat indices between 103 and 110.  Since tomorrow will be
at least the third day in a row of solid advisory heat, will go
ahead and upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning for the current
Advisory area, and an extension of the Warning where one is already
out.  While this the extension is really for tomorrow`s heat, will
make the upgrade this afternoon and continue it through tomorrow
evening for simplicity`s sake.  In the end, the message is that is
is hot, with significant risk of heat related illness if proper
precautions are not taken.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

By Wednesday, a stout shortwave currently moving across the northern
Rockies will continue east into the Great Lakes, helping to flatten
the upper level ridge and allow a cold front to move south through
the area.  Temperatures on Wednesday will still be warm, though some
increase in cloud cover should keep readings a bit lower, especially
over central Missouri.  Precipitation chances appear rather low with
this front, given fairly weak lift and an absence of good upper
level support.

Cooler, and perhaps more notably, much drier air is then expected
to build into the area Wednesday night, allowing lows to drop into
the mid 60s for the first time in some time.  Highs on Thursday and
Friday then look to be around normal for this time of year--upper
80s to around 90--but with dewpoints in the low 60s, it should feel
MUCH more comfortable than it has for the last week or two.

Temperatures should remain around seasonal averages through the
weekend, as the upper ridge is shunted back to the west and weak
northwest flow takes hold aloft. Right now, it appears that dewpoints
will remain low enough to preclude additional heat headlines.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions will continue through Tuesday with mostly clear
skies. Winds will remain light out of the south tonight and will
increase a bit on Tuesday with speeds around 12 knots at Joplin.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KEAX 272312
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
612 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 416 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Tonight - Wednesday:

Most likely the most active portion of the next 7 days spanning
oppressive heat and humidity with active convection.

For the late afternoon into the early evening hours will focus on
convection developing along a weak warm front best seen in visible
satellite imagery. This boundary extends from the intersection of an
outflow boundary from the IA thunderstorm complex along the MO/IA
border northwest of IRK southeast through northeast Macon county.
Expect convection to develop/roll southeast along this boundary for
the next few hours. Gusty winds to 50 mph and very heavy rainfall.

The rest of the CWA can expect a quiet but sultry night which will
transition to oppressive heat and humidity on Tuesday. No change is
expected in the airmass for tomorrow...and likely even a tad hotter
as 925mb temperatures increase by 1-2C due to a more westerly
component to the boundary layer winds. Given a 4th day of these
conditions for a handful of additional counties have expanded the
Excessive Heat Warning eastward and extended the current advisory
for all but the far northwest CWA through 02z Wednesday.

The weather will become active again beginning late Tuesday
afternoon and continuing through the night. As noted yesterday a
fairly stout mid/upper level shortwave will track east across the
Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley flattening the upper level ridge
axis in the process. Falling heights will allow an associated cold
front to press southeast, reaching far northwest MO by late
afternoon. Operational models have slowed the advancement of the
front a tad but are in good agreement on timing through Tuesday
night. Expect at least a broken convective line to form in response
to MUCAPES in excess of 3000J/kg and modest low level convergence.
While the 0-6km bulk shear of 20-30kt is marginal for supporting
rotating updrafts believe the high instability may be sufficient for
a few severe cells. After peaking by late evening expect the
activity to gradually weaken as it slides southeast overnight. So
highest PoPs will be across the northern 1/2 of the CWA.

Will leave low chance PoPs across the southern CWA Wednesday morning
as the cold front exits the region. Cooler temperatures, i.e. read
seasonal, and drier air will be ushered in by weak high pressure.

Thursday - Monday:

The Central/Southern Plains dome of high pressure will retrograde
westward with general troughing from Hudson Bay through the OH
Valley. This will leave northwest flow from the Northern Rockies
through the Mid MO Valley. Operational models are pretty clear on
this overall flow pattern. What isn`t clear or at least they can`t
agree on timing and location are the weak/embedded
shortwaves/vorticity maxima which typically accompany this type of
pattern. Also don`t see any discernible frontal boundaries. With
that in mind will stick with a blended model approach with any rain
chances more likely across the northern CWA which will be closest to
the stronger upper flow. Expect seasonal temperatures during this
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 612 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the entire forecast. A front will
move into the area tomorrow afternoon and be close enough to KSTJ by
00Z that have added a VCTS group to account for the small chance of
storms prior to 00Z tomorrow evening. For the KC terminals, the best
chances for any thunderstorm activity should come several hours after
00Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ057-060-
     103>105.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ025-102.

MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ028-029-
     037>040-043>046-053-054.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ005>008-013>017-
     020>025-030>033.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...CDB




000
FXUS63 KEAX 272312
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
612 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 416 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Tonight - Wednesday:

Most likely the most active portion of the next 7 days spanning
oppressive heat and humidity with active convection.

For the late afternoon into the early evening hours will focus on
convection developing along a weak warm front best seen in visible
satellite imagery. This boundary extends from the intersection of an
outflow boundary from the IA thunderstorm complex along the MO/IA
border northwest of IRK southeast through northeast Macon county.
Expect convection to develop/roll southeast along this boundary for
the next few hours. Gusty winds to 50 mph and very heavy rainfall.

The rest of the CWA can expect a quiet but sultry night which will
transition to oppressive heat and humidity on Tuesday. No change is
expected in the airmass for tomorrow...and likely even a tad hotter
as 925mb temperatures increase by 1-2C due to a more westerly
component to the boundary layer winds. Given a 4th day of these
conditions for a handful of additional counties have expanded the
Excessive Heat Warning eastward and extended the current advisory
for all but the far northwest CWA through 02z Wednesday.

The weather will become active again beginning late Tuesday
afternoon and continuing through the night. As noted yesterday a
fairly stout mid/upper level shortwave will track east across the
Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley flattening the upper level ridge
axis in the process. Falling heights will allow an associated cold
front to press southeast, reaching far northwest MO by late
afternoon. Operational models have slowed the advancement of the
front a tad but are in good agreement on timing through Tuesday
night. Expect at least a broken convective line to form in response
to MUCAPES in excess of 3000J/kg and modest low level convergence.
While the 0-6km bulk shear of 20-30kt is marginal for supporting
rotating updrafts believe the high instability may be sufficient for
a few severe cells. After peaking by late evening expect the
activity to gradually weaken as it slides southeast overnight. So
highest PoPs will be across the northern 1/2 of the CWA.

Will leave low chance PoPs across the southern CWA Wednesday morning
as the cold front exits the region. Cooler temperatures, i.e. read
seasonal, and drier air will be ushered in by weak high pressure.

Thursday - Monday:

The Central/Southern Plains dome of high pressure will retrograde
westward with general troughing from Hudson Bay through the OH
Valley. This will leave northwest flow from the Northern Rockies
through the Mid MO Valley. Operational models are pretty clear on
this overall flow pattern. What isn`t clear or at least they can`t
agree on timing and location are the weak/embedded
shortwaves/vorticity maxima which typically accompany this type of
pattern. Also don`t see any discernible frontal boundaries. With
that in mind will stick with a blended model approach with any rain
chances more likely across the northern CWA which will be closest to
the stronger upper flow. Expect seasonal temperatures during this
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 612 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the entire forecast. A front will
move into the area tomorrow afternoon and be close enough to KSTJ by
00Z that have added a VCTS group to account for the small chance of
storms prior to 00Z tomorrow evening. For the KC terminals, the best
chances for any thunderstorm activity should come several hours after
00Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ057-060-
     103>105.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ025-102.

MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ028-029-
     037>040-043>046-053-054.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ005>008-013>017-
     020>025-030>033.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...CDB



000
FXUS63 KEAX 272312
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
612 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 416 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Tonight - Wednesday:

Most likely the most active portion of the next 7 days spanning
oppressive heat and humidity with active convection.

For the late afternoon into the early evening hours will focus on
convection developing along a weak warm front best seen in visible
satellite imagery. This boundary extends from the intersection of an
outflow boundary from the IA thunderstorm complex along the MO/IA
border northwest of IRK southeast through northeast Macon county.
Expect convection to develop/roll southeast along this boundary for
the next few hours. Gusty winds to 50 mph and very heavy rainfall.

The rest of the CWA can expect a quiet but sultry night which will
transition to oppressive heat and humidity on Tuesday. No change is
expected in the airmass for tomorrow...and likely even a tad hotter
as 925mb temperatures increase by 1-2C due to a more westerly
component to the boundary layer winds. Given a 4th day of these
conditions for a handful of additional counties have expanded the
Excessive Heat Warning eastward and extended the current advisory
for all but the far northwest CWA through 02z Wednesday.

The weather will become active again beginning late Tuesday
afternoon and continuing through the night. As noted yesterday a
fairly stout mid/upper level shortwave will track east across the
Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley flattening the upper level ridge
axis in the process. Falling heights will allow an associated cold
front to press southeast, reaching far northwest MO by late
afternoon. Operational models have slowed the advancement of the
front a tad but are in good agreement on timing through Tuesday
night. Expect at least a broken convective line to form in response
to MUCAPES in excess of 3000J/kg and modest low level convergence.
While the 0-6km bulk shear of 20-30kt is marginal for supporting
rotating updrafts believe the high instability may be sufficient for
a few severe cells. After peaking by late evening expect the
activity to gradually weaken as it slides southeast overnight. So
highest PoPs will be across the northern 1/2 of the CWA.

Will leave low chance PoPs across the southern CWA Wednesday morning
as the cold front exits the region. Cooler temperatures, i.e. read
seasonal, and drier air will be ushered in by weak high pressure.

Thursday - Monday:

The Central/Southern Plains dome of high pressure will retrograde
westward with general troughing from Hudson Bay through the OH
Valley. This will leave northwest flow from the Northern Rockies
through the Mid MO Valley. Operational models are pretty clear on
this overall flow pattern. What isn`t clear or at least they can`t
agree on timing and location are the weak/embedded
shortwaves/vorticity maxima which typically accompany this type of
pattern. Also don`t see any discernible frontal boundaries. With
that in mind will stick with a blended model approach with any rain
chances more likely across the northern CWA which will be closest to
the stronger upper flow. Expect seasonal temperatures during this
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 612 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the entire forecast. A front will
move into the area tomorrow afternoon and be close enough to KSTJ by
00Z that have added a VCTS group to account for the small chance of
storms prior to 00Z tomorrow evening. For the KC terminals, the best
chances for any thunderstorm activity should come several hours after
00Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ057-060-
     103>105.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ025-102.

MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ028-029-
     037>040-043>046-053-054.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ005>008-013>017-
     020>025-030>033.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...CDB




000
FXUS63 KEAX 272116
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
416 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 416 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Tonight - Wednesday:

Most likely the most active portion of the next 7 days spanning
oppressive heat and humidity with active convection.

For the late afternoon into the early evening hours will focus on
convection developing along a weak warm front best seen in visible
satellite imagery. This boundary extends from the intersection of an
outflow boundary from the IA thunderstorm complex along the MO/IA
border northwest of IRK southeast through northeast Macon county.
Expect convection to develop/roll southeast along this boundary for
the next few hours. Gusty winds to 50 mph and very heavy rainfall.

The rest of the CWA can expect a quiet but sultry night which will
transition to oppressive heat and humidity on Tuesday. No change is
expected in the airmass for tomorrow...and likely even a tad hotter
as 925mb temperatures increase by 1-2C due to a more westerly
component to the boundary layer winds. Given a 4th day of these
conditions for a handful of additional counties have expanded the
Excessive Heat Warning eastward and extended the current advisory
for all but the far northwest CWA through 02z Wednesday.

The weather will become active again beginning late Tuesday
afternoon and continuing through the night. As noted yesterday a
fairly stout mid/upper level shortwave will track east across the
Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley flattening the upper level ridge
axis in the process. Falling heights will allow an associated cold
front to press southeast, reaching far northwest MO by late
afternoon. Operational models have slowed the advancement of the
front a tad but are in good agreement on timing through Tuesday
night. Expect at least a broken convective line to form in response
to MUCAPES in excess of 3000J/kg and modest low level convergence.
While the 0-6km bulk shear of 20-30kt is marginal for supporting
rotating updrafts believe the high instability may be sufficient for
a few severe cells. After peaking by late evening expect the
activity to gradually weaken as it slides southeast overnight. So
highest PoPs will be across the northern 1/2 of the CWA.

Will leave low chance PoPs across the southern CWA Wednesday morning
as the cold front exits the region. Cooler temperatures, i.e. read
seasonal, and drier air will be ushered in by weak high pressure.

Thursday - Monday:

The Central/Southern Plains dome of high pressure will retrograde
westward with general troughing from Hudson Bay through the OH
Valley. This will leave northwest flow from the Northern Rockies
through the Mid MO Valley. Operational models are pretty clear on
this overall flow pattern. What isn`t clear or at least they can`t
agree on timing and location are the weak/embedded
shortwaves/vorticity maxima which typically accompany this type of
pattern. Also don`t see any discernible frontal boundaries. With
that in mind will stick with a blended model approach with any rain
chances more likely across the northern CWA which will be closest to
the stronger upper flow. Expect seasonal temperatures during this
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Will maintain VFR forecast with southerly winds increasing late
Tuesday morning.

Could see a few sprinkles over northwest MO this afternoon. Will
monitor the isolated convective cells that just popped up east of KMHK.
Don`t think they`ll last too long so will maintain a dry forecast at
the terminals. Convective cloud debris, bases aoa 12k ft, will spread
east across northern/west central MO this afternoon with few clouds
after it clears.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ057-060-
     103>105.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ025-102.

MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ028-029-
     037>040-043>046-053-054.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ005>008-013>017-
     020>025-030>033.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ



000
FXUS63 KEAX 272116
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
416 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 416 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Tonight - Wednesday:

Most likely the most active portion of the next 7 days spanning
oppressive heat and humidity with active convection.

For the late afternoon into the early evening hours will focus on
convection developing along a weak warm front best seen in visible
satellite imagery. This boundary extends from the intersection of an
outflow boundary from the IA thunderstorm complex along the MO/IA
border northwest of IRK southeast through northeast Macon county.
Expect convection to develop/roll southeast along this boundary for
the next few hours. Gusty winds to 50 mph and very heavy rainfall.

The rest of the CWA can expect a quiet but sultry night which will
transition to oppressive heat and humidity on Tuesday. No change is
expected in the airmass for tomorrow...and likely even a tad hotter
as 925mb temperatures increase by 1-2C due to a more westerly
component to the boundary layer winds. Given a 4th day of these
conditions for a handful of additional counties have expanded the
Excessive Heat Warning eastward and extended the current advisory
for all but the far northwest CWA through 02z Wednesday.

The weather will become active again beginning late Tuesday
afternoon and continuing through the night. As noted yesterday a
fairly stout mid/upper level shortwave will track east across the
Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley flattening the upper level ridge
axis in the process. Falling heights will allow an associated cold
front to press southeast, reaching far northwest MO by late
afternoon. Operational models have slowed the advancement of the
front a tad but are in good agreement on timing through Tuesday
night. Expect at least a broken convective line to form in response
to MUCAPES in excess of 3000J/kg and modest low level convergence.
While the 0-6km bulk shear of 20-30kt is marginal for supporting
rotating updrafts believe the high instability may be sufficient for
a few severe cells. After peaking by late evening expect the
activity to gradually weaken as it slides southeast overnight. So
highest PoPs will be across the northern 1/2 of the CWA.

Will leave low chance PoPs across the southern CWA Wednesday morning
as the cold front exits the region. Cooler temperatures, i.e. read
seasonal, and drier air will be ushered in by weak high pressure.

Thursday - Monday:

The Central/Southern Plains dome of high pressure will retrograde
westward with general troughing from Hudson Bay through the OH
Valley. This will leave northwest flow from the Northern Rockies
through the Mid MO Valley. Operational models are pretty clear on
this overall flow pattern. What isn`t clear or at least they can`t
agree on timing and location are the weak/embedded
shortwaves/vorticity maxima which typically accompany this type of
pattern. Also don`t see any discernible frontal boundaries. With
that in mind will stick with a blended model approach with any rain
chances more likely across the northern CWA which will be closest to
the stronger upper flow. Expect seasonal temperatures during this
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Will maintain VFR forecast with southerly winds increasing late
Tuesday morning.

Could see a few sprinkles over northwest MO this afternoon. Will
monitor the isolated convective cells that just popped up east of KMHK.
Don`t think they`ll last too long so will maintain a dry forecast at
the terminals. Convective cloud debris, bases aoa 12k ft, will spread
east across northern/west central MO this afternoon with few clouds
after it clears.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ057-060-
     103>105.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ025-102.

MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ028-029-
     037>040-043>046-053-054.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ005>008-013>017-
     020>025-030>033.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KLSX 272028
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
328 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS FORECAST AREA TO LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT
STALLING OUT JUST EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL SEE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. HOT
AND HUMID WEATHER TO PERSIST WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE 70S.

BYRD

.LONG TERM: (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY) ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT
MON JUL 27 2015

(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

WILL BE UPGRADING THE WESTERN...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PART OF THE
AREA INCLUDING THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.  SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE HAD HEAT INDEX
VALUES REACH 110 DEGREES TODAY INCLUDING MISSOURI MESONET LOCATIONS
AS WELL AS LAMBERT FIELD.  QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT HAS LINGERED OVER
THE AREA TODAY AS WELL AS SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH HAS
ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO POOL AND VALUES TO CLIMB TO AROUND 80 IN SOME
CASES.  THERE HAS ALSO BEEN ENOUGH SUNSHINE FOR TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS.  SET UP TOMORROW WILL
BE MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH THE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA AND ENOUGH SUN TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 90S AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING MIXING ABOVE 850MB.  EXPECT HEAT INDEX VALUES TO CLIMB INTO
THE 105 TO 110+ RANGE AGAIN TOMORROW SUPPORTING THE ADVISORY AND
WARNING.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE CAPPING WITH THE BOUNDARY
IN PLACE...HOWEVER THE UPPER HIGH WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA SO
THINK THIS WILL LIMIT COVERAGE TO JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA.  LATEST RUNS SUPPORT THE FRONT MOVING QUICKLY
ENOUGH THE AREA THAT THE ADVISORY/WARNING WILL NOT NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AREA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO
MOVE IN.

(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ECMWF AND GFS STILL LOOK SIMILAR DURING THIS PERIOD AS NORTWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA.  THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS DRY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, BOTH MODELS ARE STILL
INDICATING THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EITHER
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.  THE GFS IS ALSO DEPICTING SOME LIGHT QPF
OVER THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT, BUT THE ECMWF IS NOT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF 15-20C.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LINGERING JUST NORTH OF I70 CORRIDOR AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
STALLING OUT JUST EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN THE
MEANTIME, DIURNAL CU WITH SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AS FOR WINDS, TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE
PICKING UP A BIT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FOR TAF SITES ALONG
I70 BY TUESDAY MORNING, WHILE KUIN WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO BOUNDARY
AND SEE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE BUT HARD
TO PIN DOWN IF THEY WILL AFFECT TAF SITES, SO LEFT MENTION OUT FOR
NOW.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LINGERING JUST NORTH OF I70 CORRIDOR AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
STALLING OUT JUST EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN THE
MEANTIME, DIURNAL CU WITH SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AS FOR WINDS, TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE
PICKING UP A BIT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY 15Z TUESDAY.
ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE BUT HARD TO PIN DOWN IF THEY WILL AFFECT
METRO AREA, SO LEFT MENTION OUT FOR NOW.

BYRD

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR BOONE MO-
     CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-
     IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-MONITEAU MO-
     MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-REYNOLDS MO-ST. CHARLES MO-ST.
     FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE
     MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-KNOX MO-
     LEWIS MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR CALHOUN IL-
     JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-MONROE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-BROWN
     IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MARION IL-
     MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-WASHINGTON IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 272028
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
328 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS FORECAST AREA TO LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT
STALLING OUT JUST EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL SEE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. HOT
AND HUMID WEATHER TO PERSIST WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE 70S.

BYRD

.LONG TERM: (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY) ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT
MON JUL 27 2015

(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

WILL BE UPGRADING THE WESTERN...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PART OF THE
AREA INCLUDING THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.  SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE HAD HEAT INDEX
VALUES REACH 110 DEGREES TODAY INCLUDING MISSOURI MESONET LOCATIONS
AS WELL AS LAMBERT FIELD.  QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT HAS LINGERED OVER
THE AREA TODAY AS WELL AS SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH HAS
ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO POOL AND VALUES TO CLIMB TO AROUND 80 IN SOME
CASES.  THERE HAS ALSO BEEN ENOUGH SUNSHINE FOR TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS.  SET UP TOMORROW WILL
BE MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH THE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA AND ENOUGH SUN TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 90S AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING MIXING ABOVE 850MB.  EXPECT HEAT INDEX VALUES TO CLIMB INTO
THE 105 TO 110+ RANGE AGAIN TOMORROW SUPPORTING THE ADVISORY AND
WARNING.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE CAPPING WITH THE BOUNDARY
IN PLACE...HOWEVER THE UPPER HIGH WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA SO
THINK THIS WILL LIMIT COVERAGE TO JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA.  LATEST RUNS SUPPORT THE FRONT MOVING QUICKLY
ENOUGH THE AREA THAT THE ADVISORY/WARNING WILL NOT NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AREA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO
MOVE IN.

(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ECMWF AND GFS STILL LOOK SIMILAR DURING THIS PERIOD AS NORTWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA.  THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS DRY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, BOTH MODELS ARE STILL
INDICATING THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EITHER
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.  THE GFS IS ALSO DEPICTING SOME LIGHT QPF
OVER THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT, BUT THE ECMWF IS NOT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF 15-20C.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LINGERING JUST NORTH OF I70 CORRIDOR AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
STALLING OUT JUST EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN THE
MEANTIME, DIURNAL CU WITH SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AS FOR WINDS, TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE
PICKING UP A BIT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FOR TAF SITES ALONG
I70 BY TUESDAY MORNING, WHILE KUIN WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO BOUNDARY
AND SEE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE BUT HARD
TO PIN DOWN IF THEY WILL AFFECT TAF SITES, SO LEFT MENTION OUT FOR
NOW.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LINGERING JUST NORTH OF I70 CORRIDOR AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
STALLING OUT JUST EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN THE
MEANTIME, DIURNAL CU WITH SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AS FOR WINDS, TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE
PICKING UP A BIT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY 15Z TUESDAY.
ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE BUT HARD TO PIN DOWN IF THEY WILL AFFECT
METRO AREA, SO LEFT MENTION OUT FOR NOW.

BYRD

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR BOONE MO-
     CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-
     IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-MONITEAU MO-
     MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-REYNOLDS MO-ST. CHARLES MO-ST.
     FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE
     MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-KNOX MO-
     LEWIS MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR CALHOUN IL-
     JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-MONROE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-BROWN
     IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MARION IL-
     MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-WASHINGTON IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KSGF 271955
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
255 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Very little change to the going forecast this afternoon, with
excessive heat expected to continue through mid week, before some
relief arrives with the approach of a cold front.

Starting out this afternoon, isolated thunderstorms have again
developed over the eastern Ozarks, where large scale subsidence
associated with the upper ridge doesn`t appear to be quite strong
enough to squash all updrafts.  This convection should remain fairly
isolated, and is expected to dissipate with sunset this evening.

Elsewhere, heat indices have again risen to between 100 and 110 this
afternoon, and will likely warm another couple of degrees by late
afternoon.  A very similar scenario is expected for Tuesday, with
highs again in the mid to upper 90s, with mid 70s dewpoints
producing heat indices between 103 and 110.  Since tomorrow will be
at least the third day in a row of solid advisory heat, will go
ahead and upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning for the current
Advisory area, and an extension of the Warning where one is already
out.  While this the extension is really for tomorrow`s heat, will
make the upgrade this afternoon and continue it through tomorrow
evening for simplicity`s sake.  In the end, the message is that is
is hot, with significant risk of heat related illness if proper
precautions are not taken.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

By Wednesday, a stout shortwave currently moving across the northern
Rockies will continue east into the Great Lakes, helping to flatten
the upper level ridge and allow a cold front to move south through
the area.  Temperatures on Wednesday will still be warm, though some
increase in cloud cover should keep readings a bit lower, especially
over central Missouri.  Precipitation chances appear rather low with
this front, given fairly weak lift and an absence of good upper
level support.

Cooler, and perhaps more notably, much drier air is then expected
to build into the area Wednesday night, allowing lows to drop into
the mid 60s for the first time in some time.  Highs on Thursday and
Friday then look to be around normal for this time of year--upper
80s to around 90--but with dewpoints in the low 60s, it should feel
MUCH more comfortable than it has for the last week or two.

Temperatures should remain around seasonal averages through the
weekend, as the upper ridge is shunted back to the west and weak
northwest flow takes hold aloft. Right now, it appears that dewpoints
will remain low enough to preclude additional heat headlines.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Any
isolated showers or storms should stay east of the TAF sites this
afternoon. Winds will remain light out of the south to southwest.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ056>058-068>071-
     079>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055-
     066-067-077-078-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Burchfield






000
FXUS63 KSGF 271955
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
255 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Very little change to the going forecast this afternoon, with
excessive heat expected to continue through mid week, before some
relief arrives with the approach of a cold front.

Starting out this afternoon, isolated thunderstorms have again
developed over the eastern Ozarks, where large scale subsidence
associated with the upper ridge doesn`t appear to be quite strong
enough to squash all updrafts.  This convection should remain fairly
isolated, and is expected to dissipate with sunset this evening.

Elsewhere, heat indices have again risen to between 100 and 110 this
afternoon, and will likely warm another couple of degrees by late
afternoon.  A very similar scenario is expected for Tuesday, with
highs again in the mid to upper 90s, with mid 70s dewpoints
producing heat indices between 103 and 110.  Since tomorrow will be
at least the third day in a row of solid advisory heat, will go
ahead and upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning for the current
Advisory area, and an extension of the Warning where one is already
out.  While this the extension is really for tomorrow`s heat, will
make the upgrade this afternoon and continue it through tomorrow
evening for simplicity`s sake.  In the end, the message is that is
is hot, with significant risk of heat related illness if proper
precautions are not taken.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

By Wednesday, a stout shortwave currently moving across the northern
Rockies will continue east into the Great Lakes, helping to flatten
the upper level ridge and allow a cold front to move south through
the area.  Temperatures on Wednesday will still be warm, though some
increase in cloud cover should keep readings a bit lower, especially
over central Missouri.  Precipitation chances appear rather low with
this front, given fairly weak lift and an absence of good upper
level support.

Cooler, and perhaps more notably, much drier air is then expected
to build into the area Wednesday night, allowing lows to drop into
the mid 60s for the first time in some time.  Highs on Thursday and
Friday then look to be around normal for this time of year--upper
80s to around 90--but with dewpoints in the low 60s, it should feel
MUCH more comfortable than it has for the last week or two.

Temperatures should remain around seasonal averages through the
weekend, as the upper ridge is shunted back to the west and weak
northwest flow takes hold aloft. Right now, it appears that dewpoints
will remain low enough to preclude additional heat headlines.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Any
isolated showers or storms should stay east of the TAF sites this
afternoon. Winds will remain light out of the south to southwest.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ056>058-068>071-
     079>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055-
     066-067-077-078-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Burchfield







000
FXUS63 KEAX 271750
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1250 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Thick ac deck tied to convective cloud debris left from a decaying
MCV moving into eastern NE will spread across much of the CWA this
afternoon. Main concern is its affect on heating and thus heat
indices, mainly for far northwest MO. Will see how 1 pm temperatures
respond but leaning towards cancelling a handful of counties.

Also watching the isolated cells which just popped up east of
MHK....on the backside of the debris cloudiness no less. Don`t think
they`ll have legs but will monitor trends. Isolated cells also popped
on northern Atchison county MO border. This is closer to the NE
vorticity center so we could see additional storms develop
along/north of the MO/IA border this afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Today through Tuesday:

The main concern through this period will be the continued heat.
Early this morning showers and thunderstorms have moved into central
Kansas which has sent a cirrus shield over the local area. This
cirrus shield will hang around through mid morning however, partly
to mostly sunny skies will allow temperatures to rise quickly this
afternoon. Good mixing up to 850mb with temperatures between 22C-24C
will yield highs in the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints are a bit more
challenging today as mid to upper 70s reside across the area this
morning. looking back across central Kansas, dewpoints have drops
into the upper 60s however. That being said, think we will at least
see slightly lower dewpoints over the southwestern CWA this
afternoon in the lower 70s. This will still yield heat index values
in the 102-107 range. As such, have continued the Excessive Heat
Warning and Heat Advisory we have in place. The main conundrum was
to extend it through Tuesday however, there still remains some
uncertainties with overnight convection and its residual cloud cover
for tomorrow. Models however, would suggest a similar thermal
profile to today with perhaps even deeper mixing on Tuesday. Highs
will again rise into the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints also look similar
to today in the low to mid 70s which again yield heat index values
in the 102-109 range. However, if thunderstorms west of the area
tomorrow morning are able to push far enough east into the forecast
area, as suggested by the NAM, this could put a wrench in the
temperature forecast.

Tuesday night - Friday:

Tuesday night will be the next chance for organized precipitation as
models are in good agreement that a cold front will be encroaching on
northwestern Missouri by 00Z Wed. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to move into the area Tuesday night however, forcing will
be weak as the upper trough associated with this front is well north
of the area near the US/Canadian border. As such, severe weather is
not anticipated however, PWAT values around 2" will again make heavy
rain a possibility. Showers and thunderstorms will continue through
Wednesday morning as the front clears the area. This will make for
much more pleasant temperatures on Wednesday with highs in the mid
to upper 80s. Wednesday night, a surface ridge of high pressure is
expected to move over the region and will be in control over the
area through Friday. This will allow for dry conditions and
continued pleasant highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Friday night - Monday:

Some models difference regarding the strength of the upper level
ridge over the southern CONUS during this time frame is leading to
uncertainty as far as precipitation chances through the period. The
GFS keep the ridge axis over the southwestern CONUS allowing for
thunderstorm chances across the northern CWA Friday night and
Saturday night. It also allows a front to drive through the area on
Sunday night/Monday bringing another round of thunderstorms to the
area. The EC is stronger with the upper ridge across the southern
CONUS leading to a warmer and drier forecast. With these model
difference have maintain the solution inherited by the
initialization.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Will maintain VFR forecast with southerly winds increasing late
Tuesday morning.

Could see a few sprinkles over northwest MO this afternoon. Will
monitor the isolated convective cells that just popped up east of KMHK.
Don`t think they`ll last too long so will maintain a dry forecast at
the terminals. Convective cloud debris, bases aoa 12k ft, will spread
east across northern/west central MO this afternoon with few clouds
after it clears.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-102.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ057-
     060-103>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-030>033-038>040-044>046.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ028-
     029-037-043-053-054.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...MJ



000
FXUS63 KEAX 271750
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1250 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Thick ac deck tied to convective cloud debris left from a decaying
MCV moving into eastern NE will spread across much of the CWA this
afternoon. Main concern is its affect on heating and thus heat
indices, mainly for far northwest MO. Will see how 1 pm temperatures
respond but leaning towards cancelling a handful of counties.

Also watching the isolated cells which just popped up east of
MHK....on the backside of the debris cloudiness no less. Don`t think
they`ll have legs but will monitor trends. Isolated cells also popped
on northern Atchison county MO border. This is closer to the NE
vorticity center so we could see additional storms develop
along/north of the MO/IA border this afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Today through Tuesday:

The main concern through this period will be the continued heat.
Early this morning showers and thunderstorms have moved into central
Kansas which has sent a cirrus shield over the local area. This
cirrus shield will hang around through mid morning however, partly
to mostly sunny skies will allow temperatures to rise quickly this
afternoon. Good mixing up to 850mb with temperatures between 22C-24C
will yield highs in the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints are a bit more
challenging today as mid to upper 70s reside across the area this
morning. looking back across central Kansas, dewpoints have drops
into the upper 60s however. That being said, think we will at least
see slightly lower dewpoints over the southwestern CWA this
afternoon in the lower 70s. This will still yield heat index values
in the 102-107 range. As such, have continued the Excessive Heat
Warning and Heat Advisory we have in place. The main conundrum was
to extend it through Tuesday however, there still remains some
uncertainties with overnight convection and its residual cloud cover
for tomorrow. Models however, would suggest a similar thermal
profile to today with perhaps even deeper mixing on Tuesday. Highs
will again rise into the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints also look similar
to today in the low to mid 70s which again yield heat index values
in the 102-109 range. However, if thunderstorms west of the area
tomorrow morning are able to push far enough east into the forecast
area, as suggested by the NAM, this could put a wrench in the
temperature forecast.

Tuesday night - Friday:

Tuesday night will be the next chance for organized precipitation as
models are in good agreement that a cold front will be encroaching on
northwestern Missouri by 00Z Wed. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to move into the area Tuesday night however, forcing will
be weak as the upper trough associated with this front is well north
of the area near the US/Canadian border. As such, severe weather is
not anticipated however, PWAT values around 2" will again make heavy
rain a possibility. Showers and thunderstorms will continue through
Wednesday morning as the front clears the area. This will make for
much more pleasant temperatures on Wednesday with highs in the mid
to upper 80s. Wednesday night, a surface ridge of high pressure is
expected to move over the region and will be in control over the
area through Friday. This will allow for dry conditions and
continued pleasant highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Friday night - Monday:

Some models difference regarding the strength of the upper level
ridge over the southern CONUS during this time frame is leading to
uncertainty as far as precipitation chances through the period. The
GFS keep the ridge axis over the southwestern CONUS allowing for
thunderstorm chances across the northern CWA Friday night and
Saturday night. It also allows a front to drive through the area on
Sunday night/Monday bringing another round of thunderstorms to the
area. The EC is stronger with the upper ridge across the southern
CONUS leading to a warmer and drier forecast. With these model
difference have maintain the solution inherited by the
initialization.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Will maintain VFR forecast with southerly winds increasing late
Tuesday morning.

Could see a few sprinkles over northwest MO this afternoon. Will
monitor the isolated convective cells that just popped up east of KMHK.
Don`t think they`ll last too long so will maintain a dry forecast at
the terminals. Convective cloud debris, bases aoa 12k ft, will spread
east across northern/west central MO this afternoon with few clouds
after it clears.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-102.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ057-
     060-103>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-030>033-038>040-044>046.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ028-
     029-037-043-053-054.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KLSX 271748
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1248 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONVECTION JUST REFUSES TO DIE OVER THE CWA, WITH HIT AND MISS
ECHOES SHOWING UP THROUGHOUT THE PREDAWN HOURS IN A BROAD BAND ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  LARGEST AND MOST PERSISTENT AREA OF PRECIP
HAS BEEN OVER OUR SE COUNTIES SOUTHEAST OF STL METRO, WHERE IT
APPEARS VERY WEAK WAA INTERACTING WITH CONTINUALLY RAIN-COOLED
BOUNDARY IS ALLOWING CONVECTION TO REGENERATE.  IN SPITE OF THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THE VARIOUS
HI-RES EXPLICIT MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SPOTTY CONVECTION OVER
ALL BUT OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES, AND JUDGING HOW THERMAL PROFILE OF
AMS IS NEARLY UNCHANGED CARRYING SOME LOW/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOKS
APPROPRIATE. HAVE PLACED HIGHEST POPS...SUCH AS THEY ARE...NEAR
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SUGGESTED AT BY NAM AND RUC FROM N OF COU
THRU STL AREA.

WITHOUT FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MORNING PRECIP, TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA SHOULD WARM NICELY TODAY. THERE IS EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM
CIRRUS FROM CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS, BUT IT SHOULD CERTAINLY THIN
AS CONVECTION WANES AND AS THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE DRIFTS INTO THE
HEART OF THE RIDGE, AND HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH THE LOW TO MID
90S. DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY WELL IN THE 70S, AND AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR FURTHER POOLING OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO, ALL PARAMETERS POINT TO A VERY STEAMY
JULY AFTERNOON, WITH THE HEAT INDEX REACHING 105 DEGREES OVER MOST
OF THE CWA. GOING HEAT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS ON THE MARK.

TRUETT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

(TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)

HIGH LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY REACH THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS
DURING THIS RECENT STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH MID
90S COMMON ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RATCHET
UP A NOTCH FROM TODAY`S LEVELS, WITH FORECAST COMBO OF HOURLY
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS YIELDING VALUES IN THE 105-110 RANGE ACROSS THE
REGION. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
THE FA COULD ONCE AGAIN PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 ON
WEDNESDAY BUT THREAT LOOKS LOW AT THIS POINT...SO WILL MAINTAIN
TIMING AND LOCATION OF CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW.

CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SUGGESTS THAT THREAT OF CONVECTION SHOULD WANE EVEN MORE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME VERY LOW POPS THIS
EVENING...PRIMARILY FOR ANY LEFT-OVER AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...AND
ALSO CONTINUED SOME LOW POPS IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ON
TUESDAY WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE THEIR COOLEST.

OVERNIGHT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE THIS MAY
BE ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE THERE IS A BROAD BAND OF
CONVECTION THAT IGNITES ALONG THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
THIS BAND OF PRECIP HAVING TROUBLE WORKING SOUTH AS COLD
FRONT...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW...OUTRUNS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH ALSO
LOOKS QUESTIONABLE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS CURRENT
FORECASTS INDICATE VERY LITTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY.

(THURSDAY-SUNDAY)

ALL MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL TROF DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WHILE HEIGHTS
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY RETROGRADES INTO THE WESTERN U.S.
ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW CAN BE SUBTLY STORMY, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR AREA FOR THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL, BUT THERE SHOULD BE
NOTICEABLYLESS HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS PRIMARILY IN THE 60S.

DID STAY WITH MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SUGGESTS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PRODUCING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY
SUNDAY IN SOME AREAS.

TRUETT
&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LINGERING JUST NORTH OF I70 CORRIDOR AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
STALLING OUT JUST EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN THE
MEANTIME, DIURNAL CU WITH SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AS FOR WINDS, TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE
PICKING UP A BIT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FOR TAF SITES ALONG
I70 BY TUESDAY MORNING, WHILE KUIN WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO BOUNDARY
AND SEE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE BUT HARD
TO PIN DOWN IF THEY WILL AFFECT TAF SITES, SO LEFT MENTION OUT FOR
NOW.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LINGERING JUST NORTH OF I70 CORRIDOR AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
STALLING OUT JUST EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN THE
MEANTIME, DIURNAL CU WITH SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AS FOR WINDS, TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE
PICKING UP A BIT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY 15Z TUESDAY.
ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE BUT HARD TO PIN DOWN IF THEY WILL AFFECT
METRO AREA, SO LEFT MENTION OUT FOR NOW.

BYRD
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE MO-
     CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-
     IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-
     MARION MO-MONITEAU MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-PIKE
     MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-SHELBY MO-ST. CHARLES MO-ST.
     FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE
     MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-BROWN
     IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-
     MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-
     PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.

&&

$$
WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 271748
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1248 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONVECTION JUST REFUSES TO DIE OVER THE CWA, WITH HIT AND MISS
ECHOES SHOWING UP THROUGHOUT THE PREDAWN HOURS IN A BROAD BAND ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  LARGEST AND MOST PERSISTENT AREA OF PRECIP
HAS BEEN OVER OUR SE COUNTIES SOUTHEAST OF STL METRO, WHERE IT
APPEARS VERY WEAK WAA INTERACTING WITH CONTINUALLY RAIN-COOLED
BOUNDARY IS ALLOWING CONVECTION TO REGENERATE.  IN SPITE OF THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THE VARIOUS
HI-RES EXPLICIT MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SPOTTY CONVECTION OVER
ALL BUT OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES, AND JUDGING HOW THERMAL PROFILE OF
AMS IS NEARLY UNCHANGED CARRYING SOME LOW/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOKS
APPROPRIATE. HAVE PLACED HIGHEST POPS...SUCH AS THEY ARE...NEAR
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SUGGESTED AT BY NAM AND RUC FROM N OF COU
THRU STL AREA.

WITHOUT FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MORNING PRECIP, TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA SHOULD WARM NICELY TODAY. THERE IS EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM
CIRRUS FROM CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS, BUT IT SHOULD CERTAINLY THIN
AS CONVECTION WANES AND AS THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE DRIFTS INTO THE
HEART OF THE RIDGE, AND HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH THE LOW TO MID
90S. DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY WELL IN THE 70S, AND AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR FURTHER POOLING OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO, ALL PARAMETERS POINT TO A VERY STEAMY
JULY AFTERNOON, WITH THE HEAT INDEX REACHING 105 DEGREES OVER MOST
OF THE CWA. GOING HEAT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS ON THE MARK.

TRUETT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

(TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)

HIGH LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY REACH THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS
DURING THIS RECENT STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH MID
90S COMMON ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RATCHET
UP A NOTCH FROM TODAY`S LEVELS, WITH FORECAST COMBO OF HOURLY
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS YIELDING VALUES IN THE 105-110 RANGE ACROSS THE
REGION. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
THE FA COULD ONCE AGAIN PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 ON
WEDNESDAY BUT THREAT LOOKS LOW AT THIS POINT...SO WILL MAINTAIN
TIMING AND LOCATION OF CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW.

CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SUGGESTS THAT THREAT OF CONVECTION SHOULD WANE EVEN MORE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME VERY LOW POPS THIS
EVENING...PRIMARILY FOR ANY LEFT-OVER AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...AND
ALSO CONTINUED SOME LOW POPS IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ON
TUESDAY WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE THEIR COOLEST.

OVERNIGHT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE THIS MAY
BE ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE THERE IS A BROAD BAND OF
CONVECTION THAT IGNITES ALONG THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
THIS BAND OF PRECIP HAVING TROUBLE WORKING SOUTH AS COLD
FRONT...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW...OUTRUNS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH ALSO
LOOKS QUESTIONABLE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS CURRENT
FORECASTS INDICATE VERY LITTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY.

(THURSDAY-SUNDAY)

ALL MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL TROF DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WHILE HEIGHTS
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY RETROGRADES INTO THE WESTERN U.S.
ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW CAN BE SUBTLY STORMY, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR AREA FOR THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL, BUT THERE SHOULD BE
NOTICEABLYLESS HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS PRIMARILY IN THE 60S.

DID STAY WITH MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SUGGESTS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PRODUCING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY
SUNDAY IN SOME AREAS.

TRUETT
&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LINGERING JUST NORTH OF I70 CORRIDOR AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
STALLING OUT JUST EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN THE
MEANTIME, DIURNAL CU WITH SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AS FOR WINDS, TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE
PICKING UP A BIT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FOR TAF SITES ALONG
I70 BY TUESDAY MORNING, WHILE KUIN WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO BOUNDARY
AND SEE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE BUT HARD
TO PIN DOWN IF THEY WILL AFFECT TAF SITES, SO LEFT MENTION OUT FOR
NOW.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LINGERING JUST NORTH OF I70 CORRIDOR AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
STALLING OUT JUST EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN THE
MEANTIME, DIURNAL CU WITH SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AS FOR WINDS, TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE
PICKING UP A BIT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY 15Z TUESDAY.
ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE BUT HARD TO PIN DOWN IF THEY WILL AFFECT
METRO AREA, SO LEFT MENTION OUT FOR NOW.

BYRD
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE MO-
     CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-
     IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-
     MARION MO-MONITEAU MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-PIKE
     MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-SHELBY MO-ST. CHARLES MO-ST.
     FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE
     MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-BROWN
     IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-
     MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-
     PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.

&&

$$
WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KSGF 271726 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1226 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Muggy conditions continued over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Early morning temperatures struggled to cool out
of the 80s as dew points rose into the middle 70s.

All precipitation was out of state this morning, and should remain
away from the Ozarks through most of today. Look for another
sweltering day with heat indices ranging from 100 to 110 degrees.

We have expanded the Excessive Heat Warning for the Osage River
Valley through Benton County. Many of these locations within the
Warning are now reaching 4 consecutive days of 105 degrees or
greater.

For tonight, not much will change with overnight lows ranging from
the middle 70s to the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

The summertime high is expected to continue expanding over the
Ozarks. This pattern will bring even hotter temperatures, although
dew points may have a shot to mix down a bit during the afternoon.

The heat headlines could possibly come to an end by Wednesday, as
some relief will occur with the passage of a cold front. This
frontal system will also trigger showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The summertime high then refocuses over the Great Basin through
the end of the week. This will mitigate temperatures from reaching
the 90s Thursday through the weekend. This pattern will also bring
some precipitation chances to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Any
isolated showers or storms should stay east of the TAF sites this
afternoon. Winds will remain light out of the south to southwest.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ056>058-068>071-
     079>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055-
     066-067-077-078-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Burchfield







000
FXUS63 KSGF 271726 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1226 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Muggy conditions continued over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Early morning temperatures struggled to cool out
of the 80s as dew points rose into the middle 70s.

All precipitation was out of state this morning, and should remain
away from the Ozarks through most of today. Look for another
sweltering day with heat indices ranging from 100 to 110 degrees.

We have expanded the Excessive Heat Warning for the Osage River
Valley through Benton County. Many of these locations within the
Warning are now reaching 4 consecutive days of 105 degrees or
greater.

For tonight, not much will change with overnight lows ranging from
the middle 70s to the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

The summertime high is expected to continue expanding over the
Ozarks. This pattern will bring even hotter temperatures, although
dew points may have a shot to mix down a bit during the afternoon.

The heat headlines could possibly come to an end by Wednesday, as
some relief will occur with the passage of a cold front. This
frontal system will also trigger showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The summertime high then refocuses over the Great Basin through
the end of the week. This will mitigate temperatures from reaching
the 90s Thursday through the weekend. This pattern will also bring
some precipitation chances to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Any
isolated showers or storms should stay east of the TAF sites this
afternoon. Winds will remain light out of the south to southwest.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ056>058-068>071-
     079>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055-
     066-067-077-078-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Burchfield






000
FXUS63 KSGF 271726 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1226 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Muggy conditions continued over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Early morning temperatures struggled to cool out
of the 80s as dew points rose into the middle 70s.

All precipitation was out of state this morning, and should remain
away from the Ozarks through most of today. Look for another
sweltering day with heat indices ranging from 100 to 110 degrees.

We have expanded the Excessive Heat Warning for the Osage River
Valley through Benton County. Many of these locations within the
Warning are now reaching 4 consecutive days of 105 degrees or
greater.

For tonight, not much will change with overnight lows ranging from
the middle 70s to the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

The summertime high is expected to continue expanding over the
Ozarks. This pattern will bring even hotter temperatures, although
dew points may have a shot to mix down a bit during the afternoon.

The heat headlines could possibly come to an end by Wednesday, as
some relief will occur with the passage of a cold front. This
frontal system will also trigger showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The summertime high then refocuses over the Great Basin through
the end of the week. This will mitigate temperatures from reaching
the 90s Thursday through the weekend. This pattern will also bring
some precipitation chances to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Any
isolated showers or storms should stay east of the TAF sites this
afternoon. Winds will remain light out of the south to southwest.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ056>058-068>071-
     079>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055-
     066-067-077-078-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Burchfield







000
FXUS63 KSGF 271726 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1226 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Muggy conditions continued over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Early morning temperatures struggled to cool out
of the 80s as dew points rose into the middle 70s.

All precipitation was out of state this morning, and should remain
away from the Ozarks through most of today. Look for another
sweltering day with heat indices ranging from 100 to 110 degrees.

We have expanded the Excessive Heat Warning for the Osage River
Valley through Benton County. Many of these locations within the
Warning are now reaching 4 consecutive days of 105 degrees or
greater.

For tonight, not much will change with overnight lows ranging from
the middle 70s to the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

The summertime high is expected to continue expanding over the
Ozarks. This pattern will bring even hotter temperatures, although
dew points may have a shot to mix down a bit during the afternoon.

The heat headlines could possibly come to an end by Wednesday, as
some relief will occur with the passage of a cold front. This
frontal system will also trigger showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The summertime high then refocuses over the Great Basin through
the end of the week. This will mitigate temperatures from reaching
the 90s Thursday through the weekend. This pattern will also bring
some precipitation chances to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Any
isolated showers or storms should stay east of the TAF sites this
afternoon. Winds will remain light out of the south to southwest.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ056>058-068>071-
     079>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055-
     066-067-077-078-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Burchfield






000
FXUS63 KLSX 271143
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
643 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONVECTION JUST REFUSES TO DIE OVER THE CWA, WITH HIT AND MISS
ECHOES SHOWING UP THROUGHOUT THE PREDAWN HOURS IN A BROAD BAND ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  LARGEST AND MOST PERSISTENT AREA OF PRECIP
HAS BEEN OVER OUR SE COUNTIES SOUTHEAST OF STL METRO, WHERE IT
APPEARS VERY WEAK WAA INTERACTING WITH CONTINUALLY RAIN-COOLED
BOUNDARY IS ALLOWING CONVECTION TO REGENERATE.  IN SPITE OF THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THE VARIOUS
HI-RES EXPLICIT MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SPOTTY CONVECTION OVER
ALL BUT OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES, AND JUDGING HOW THERMAL PROFILE OF
AMS IS NEARLY UNCHANGED CARRYING SOME LOW/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOKS
APPROPRIATE. HAVE PLACED HIGHEST POPS...SUCH AS THEY ARE...NEAR
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SUGGESTED AT BY NAM AND RUC FROM N OF COU
THRU STL AREA.

WITHOUT FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MORNING PRECIP, TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA SHOULD WARM NICELY TODAY. THERE IS EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM
CIRRUS FROM CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS, BUT IT SHOULD CERTAINLY THIN
AS CONVECTION WANES AND AS THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE DRIFTS INTO THE
HEART OF THE RIDGE, AND HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH THE LOW TO MID
90S. DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY WELL IN THE 70S, AND AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR FURTHER POOLING OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO, ALL PARAMETERS POINT TO A VERY STEAMY
JULY AFTERNOON, WITH THE HEAT INDEX REACHING 105 DEGREES OVER MOST
OF THE CWA. GOING HEAT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS ON THE MARK.

TRUETT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

(TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)

HIGH LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY REACH THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS
DURING THIS RECENT STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH MID
90S COMMON ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RATCHET
UP A NOTCH FROM TODAY`S LEVELS, WITH FORECAST COMBO OF HOURLY
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS YIELDING VALUES IN THE 105-110 RANGE ACROSS THE
REGION. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
THE FA COULD ONCE AGAIN PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 ON
WEDNESDAY BUT THREAT LOOKS LOW AT THIS POINT...SO WILL MAINTAIN
TIMING AND LOCATION OF CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW.

CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SUGGESTS THAT THREAT OF CONVECTION SHOULD WANE EVEN MORE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME VERY LOW POPS THIS
EVENING...PRIMARILY FOR ANY LEFT-OVER AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...AND
ALSO CONTINUED SOME LOW POPS IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ON
TUESDAY WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE THEIR COOLEST.

OVERNIGHT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE THIS MAY
BE ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE THERE IS A BROAD BAND OF
CONVECTION THAT IGNITES ALONG THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
THIS BAND OF PRECIP HAVING TROUBLE WORKING SOUTH AS COLD
FRONT...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW...OUTRUNS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH ALSO
LOOKS QUESTIONABLE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS CURRENT
FORECASTS INDICATE VERY LITTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY.

(THURSDAY-SUNDAY)

ALL MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL TROF DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WHILE HEIGHTS
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY RETROGRADES INTO THE WESTERN U.S.
ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW CAN BE SUBTLY STORMY, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR AREA FOR THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL, BUT THERE SHOULD BE
NOTICEABLYLESS HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS PRIMARILY IN THE 60S.

DID STAY WITH MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SUGGESTS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PRODUCING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY
SUNDAY IN SOME AREAS.

TRUETT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ISOLATED SH/TS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AT ALL TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE
IN SH/TS AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 12Z
TAFS ATTM. EARLY MORNING FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL MIXING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE AIR MASS TONIGHT WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO CONDITIONS LAST
NIGHT, THEREFORE FOG FOG OUGHT TO RE-DEVELOP AFTER 04Z TONIGHT
(ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEYS) GIVEN THE SIMILAR T-TD SPREADS AND
LIGHT WINDS.

KANOFSKY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-
     CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-
     KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-
     MONTGOMERY MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-SHELBY MO-ST.
     CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
     STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-
     COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-OSAGE MO.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ADAMS IL-
     BOND IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-
     JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-
     MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON
     IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 271143
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
643 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONVECTION JUST REFUSES TO DIE OVER THE CWA, WITH HIT AND MISS
ECHOES SHOWING UP THROUGHOUT THE PREDAWN HOURS IN A BROAD BAND ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  LARGEST AND MOST PERSISTENT AREA OF PRECIP
HAS BEEN OVER OUR SE COUNTIES SOUTHEAST OF STL METRO, WHERE IT
APPEARS VERY WEAK WAA INTERACTING WITH CONTINUALLY RAIN-COOLED
BOUNDARY IS ALLOWING CONVECTION TO REGENERATE.  IN SPITE OF THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THE VARIOUS
HI-RES EXPLICIT MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SPOTTY CONVECTION OVER
ALL BUT OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES, AND JUDGING HOW THERMAL PROFILE OF
AMS IS NEARLY UNCHANGED CARRYING SOME LOW/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOKS
APPROPRIATE. HAVE PLACED HIGHEST POPS...SUCH AS THEY ARE...NEAR
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SUGGESTED AT BY NAM AND RUC FROM N OF COU
THRU STL AREA.

WITHOUT FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MORNING PRECIP, TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA SHOULD WARM NICELY TODAY. THERE IS EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM
CIRRUS FROM CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS, BUT IT SHOULD CERTAINLY THIN
AS CONVECTION WANES AND AS THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE DRIFTS INTO THE
HEART OF THE RIDGE, AND HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH THE LOW TO MID
90S. DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY WELL IN THE 70S, AND AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR FURTHER POOLING OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO, ALL PARAMETERS POINT TO A VERY STEAMY
JULY AFTERNOON, WITH THE HEAT INDEX REACHING 105 DEGREES OVER MOST
OF THE CWA. GOING HEAT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS ON THE MARK.

TRUETT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

(TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)

HIGH LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY REACH THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS
DURING THIS RECENT STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH MID
90S COMMON ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RATCHET
UP A NOTCH FROM TODAY`S LEVELS, WITH FORECAST COMBO OF HOURLY
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS YIELDING VALUES IN THE 105-110 RANGE ACROSS THE
REGION. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
THE FA COULD ONCE AGAIN PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 ON
WEDNESDAY BUT THREAT LOOKS LOW AT THIS POINT...SO WILL MAINTAIN
TIMING AND LOCATION OF CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW.

CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SUGGESTS THAT THREAT OF CONVECTION SHOULD WANE EVEN MORE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME VERY LOW POPS THIS
EVENING...PRIMARILY FOR ANY LEFT-OVER AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...AND
ALSO CONTINUED SOME LOW POPS IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ON
TUESDAY WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE THEIR COOLEST.

OVERNIGHT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE THIS MAY
BE ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE THERE IS A BROAD BAND OF
CONVECTION THAT IGNITES ALONG THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
THIS BAND OF PRECIP HAVING TROUBLE WORKING SOUTH AS COLD
FRONT...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW...OUTRUNS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH ALSO
LOOKS QUESTIONABLE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS CURRENT
FORECASTS INDICATE VERY LITTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY.

(THURSDAY-SUNDAY)

ALL MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL TROF DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WHILE HEIGHTS
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY RETROGRADES INTO THE WESTERN U.S.
ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW CAN BE SUBTLY STORMY, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR AREA FOR THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL, BUT THERE SHOULD BE
NOTICEABLYLESS HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS PRIMARILY IN THE 60S.

DID STAY WITH MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SUGGESTS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PRODUCING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY
SUNDAY IN SOME AREAS.

TRUETT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ISOLATED SH/TS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AT ALL TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE
IN SH/TS AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 12Z
TAFS ATTM. EARLY MORNING FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL MIXING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE AIR MASS TONIGHT WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO CONDITIONS LAST
NIGHT, THEREFORE FOG FOG OUGHT TO RE-DEVELOP AFTER 04Z TONIGHT
(ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEYS) GIVEN THE SIMILAR T-TD SPREADS AND
LIGHT WINDS.

KANOFSKY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-
     CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-
     KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-
     MONTGOMERY MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-SHELBY MO-ST.
     CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
     STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-
     COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-OSAGE MO.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ADAMS IL-
     BOND IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-
     JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-
     MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON
     IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 271143
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
643 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONVECTION JUST REFUSES TO DIE OVER THE CWA, WITH HIT AND MISS
ECHOES SHOWING UP THROUGHOUT THE PREDAWN HOURS IN A BROAD BAND ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  LARGEST AND MOST PERSISTENT AREA OF PRECIP
HAS BEEN OVER OUR SE COUNTIES SOUTHEAST OF STL METRO, WHERE IT
APPEARS VERY WEAK WAA INTERACTING WITH CONTINUALLY RAIN-COOLED
BOUNDARY IS ALLOWING CONVECTION TO REGENERATE.  IN SPITE OF THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THE VARIOUS
HI-RES EXPLICIT MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SPOTTY CONVECTION OVER
ALL BUT OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES, AND JUDGING HOW THERMAL PROFILE OF
AMS IS NEARLY UNCHANGED CARRYING SOME LOW/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOKS
APPROPRIATE. HAVE PLACED HIGHEST POPS...SUCH AS THEY ARE...NEAR
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SUGGESTED AT BY NAM AND RUC FROM N OF COU
THRU STL AREA.

WITHOUT FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MORNING PRECIP, TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA SHOULD WARM NICELY TODAY. THERE IS EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM
CIRRUS FROM CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS, BUT IT SHOULD CERTAINLY THIN
AS CONVECTION WANES AND AS THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE DRIFTS INTO THE
HEART OF THE RIDGE, AND HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH THE LOW TO MID
90S. DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY WELL IN THE 70S, AND AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR FURTHER POOLING OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO, ALL PARAMETERS POINT TO A VERY STEAMY
JULY AFTERNOON, WITH THE HEAT INDEX REACHING 105 DEGREES OVER MOST
OF THE CWA. GOING HEAT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS ON THE MARK.

TRUETT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

(TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)

HIGH LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY REACH THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS
DURING THIS RECENT STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH MID
90S COMMON ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RATCHET
UP A NOTCH FROM TODAY`S LEVELS, WITH FORECAST COMBO OF HOURLY
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS YIELDING VALUES IN THE 105-110 RANGE ACROSS THE
REGION. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
THE FA COULD ONCE AGAIN PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 ON
WEDNESDAY BUT THREAT LOOKS LOW AT THIS POINT...SO WILL MAINTAIN
TIMING AND LOCATION OF CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW.

CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SUGGESTS THAT THREAT OF CONVECTION SHOULD WANE EVEN MORE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME VERY LOW POPS THIS
EVENING...PRIMARILY FOR ANY LEFT-OVER AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...AND
ALSO CONTINUED SOME LOW POPS IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ON
TUESDAY WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE THEIR COOLEST.

OVERNIGHT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE THIS MAY
BE ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE THERE IS A BROAD BAND OF
CONVECTION THAT IGNITES ALONG THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
THIS BAND OF PRECIP HAVING TROUBLE WORKING SOUTH AS COLD
FRONT...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW...OUTRUNS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH ALSO
LOOKS QUESTIONABLE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS CURRENT
FORECASTS INDICATE VERY LITTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY.

(THURSDAY-SUNDAY)

ALL MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL TROF DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WHILE HEIGHTS
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY RETROGRADES INTO THE WESTERN U.S.
ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW CAN BE SUBTLY STORMY, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR AREA FOR THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL, BUT THERE SHOULD BE
NOTICEABLYLESS HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS PRIMARILY IN THE 60S.

DID STAY WITH MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SUGGESTS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PRODUCING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY
SUNDAY IN SOME AREAS.

TRUETT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ISOLATED SH/TS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AT ALL TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE
IN SH/TS AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 12Z
TAFS ATTM. EARLY MORNING FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL MIXING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE AIR MASS TONIGHT WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO CONDITIONS LAST
NIGHT, THEREFORE FOG FOG OUGHT TO RE-DEVELOP AFTER 04Z TONIGHT
(ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEYS) GIVEN THE SIMILAR T-TD SPREADS AND
LIGHT WINDS.

KANOFSKY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-
     CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-
     KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-
     MONTGOMERY MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-SHELBY MO-ST.
     CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
     STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-
     COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-OSAGE MO.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ADAMS IL-
     BOND IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-
     JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-
     MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON
     IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 271143
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
643 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONVECTION JUST REFUSES TO DIE OVER THE CWA, WITH HIT AND MISS
ECHOES SHOWING UP THROUGHOUT THE PREDAWN HOURS IN A BROAD BAND ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  LARGEST AND MOST PERSISTENT AREA OF PRECIP
HAS BEEN OVER OUR SE COUNTIES SOUTHEAST OF STL METRO, WHERE IT
APPEARS VERY WEAK WAA INTERACTING WITH CONTINUALLY RAIN-COOLED
BOUNDARY IS ALLOWING CONVECTION TO REGENERATE.  IN SPITE OF THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THE VARIOUS
HI-RES EXPLICIT MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SPOTTY CONVECTION OVER
ALL BUT OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES, AND JUDGING HOW THERMAL PROFILE OF
AMS IS NEARLY UNCHANGED CARRYING SOME LOW/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOKS
APPROPRIATE. HAVE PLACED HIGHEST POPS...SUCH AS THEY ARE...NEAR
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SUGGESTED AT BY NAM AND RUC FROM N OF COU
THRU STL AREA.

WITHOUT FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MORNING PRECIP, TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA SHOULD WARM NICELY TODAY. THERE IS EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM
CIRRUS FROM CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS, BUT IT SHOULD CERTAINLY THIN
AS CONVECTION WANES AND AS THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE DRIFTS INTO THE
HEART OF THE RIDGE, AND HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH THE LOW TO MID
90S. DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY WELL IN THE 70S, AND AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR FURTHER POOLING OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO, ALL PARAMETERS POINT TO A VERY STEAMY
JULY AFTERNOON, WITH THE HEAT INDEX REACHING 105 DEGREES OVER MOST
OF THE CWA. GOING HEAT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS ON THE MARK.

TRUETT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

(TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)

HIGH LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY REACH THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS
DURING THIS RECENT STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH MID
90S COMMON ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RATCHET
UP A NOTCH FROM TODAY`S LEVELS, WITH FORECAST COMBO OF HOURLY
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS YIELDING VALUES IN THE 105-110 RANGE ACROSS THE
REGION. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
THE FA COULD ONCE AGAIN PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 ON
WEDNESDAY BUT THREAT LOOKS LOW AT THIS POINT...SO WILL MAINTAIN
TIMING AND LOCATION OF CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW.

CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SUGGESTS THAT THREAT OF CONVECTION SHOULD WANE EVEN MORE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME VERY LOW POPS THIS
EVENING...PRIMARILY FOR ANY LEFT-OVER AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...AND
ALSO CONTINUED SOME LOW POPS IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ON
TUESDAY WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE THEIR COOLEST.

OVERNIGHT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE THIS MAY
BE ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE THERE IS A BROAD BAND OF
CONVECTION THAT IGNITES ALONG THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
THIS BAND OF PRECIP HAVING TROUBLE WORKING SOUTH AS COLD
FRONT...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW...OUTRUNS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH ALSO
LOOKS QUESTIONABLE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS CURRENT
FORECASTS INDICATE VERY LITTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY.

(THURSDAY-SUNDAY)

ALL MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL TROF DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WHILE HEIGHTS
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY RETROGRADES INTO THE WESTERN U.S.
ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW CAN BE SUBTLY STORMY, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR AREA FOR THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL, BUT THERE SHOULD BE
NOTICEABLYLESS HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS PRIMARILY IN THE 60S.

DID STAY WITH MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SUGGESTS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PRODUCING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY
SUNDAY IN SOME AREAS.

TRUETT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ISOLATED SH/TS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AT ALL TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE
IN SH/TS AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 12Z
TAFS ATTM. EARLY MORNING FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL MIXING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE AIR MASS TONIGHT WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO CONDITIONS LAST
NIGHT, THEREFORE FOG FOG OUGHT TO RE-DEVELOP AFTER 04Z TONIGHT
(ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEYS) GIVEN THE SIMILAR T-TD SPREADS AND
LIGHT WINDS.

KANOFSKY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-
     CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-
     KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-
     MONTGOMERY MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-SHELBY MO-ST.
     CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
     STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-
     COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-OSAGE MO.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ADAMS IL-
     BOND IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-
     JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-
     MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON
     IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KSGF 271131
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
631 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Muggy conditions continued over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Early morning temperatures struggled to cool out
of the 80s as dew points rose into the middle 70s.

All precipitation was out of state this morning, and should remain
away from the Ozarks through most of today. Look for another
sweltering day with heat indices ranging from 100 to 110 degrees.

We have expanded the Excessive Heat Warning for the Osage River
Valley through Benton County. Many of these locations within the
Warning are now reaching 4 consecutive days of 105 degrees or
greater.

For tonight, not much will change with overnight lows ranging from
the middle 70s to the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

The summertime high is expected to continue expanding over the
Ozarks. This pattern will bring even hotter temperatures, although
dew points may have a shot to mix down a bit during the afternoon.

The heat headlines could possibly come to an end by Wednesday, as
some relief will occur with the passage of a cold front. This
frontal system will also trigger showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The summertime high then refocuses over the Great Basin through
the end of the week. This will mitigate temperatures from reaching
the 90s Thursday through the weekend. This pattern will also bring
some precipitation chances to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 627 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. While
isolated thunderstorms are possible, an upper level ridge of high
pressure will greatly limit chances and areal extent.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ056>058-068>071-079>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening FOR MOZ055-066-067-077-078-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 271131
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
631 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Muggy conditions continued over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Early morning temperatures struggled to cool out
of the 80s as dew points rose into the middle 70s.

All precipitation was out of state this morning, and should remain
away from the Ozarks through most of today. Look for another
sweltering day with heat indices ranging from 100 to 110 degrees.

We have expanded the Excessive Heat Warning for the Osage River
Valley through Benton County. Many of these locations within the
Warning are now reaching 4 consecutive days of 105 degrees or
greater.

For tonight, not much will change with overnight lows ranging from
the middle 70s to the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

The summertime high is expected to continue expanding over the
Ozarks. This pattern will bring even hotter temperatures, although
dew points may have a shot to mix down a bit during the afternoon.

The heat headlines could possibly come to an end by Wednesday, as
some relief will occur with the passage of a cold front. This
frontal system will also trigger showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The summertime high then refocuses over the Great Basin through
the end of the week. This will mitigate temperatures from reaching
the 90s Thursday through the weekend. This pattern will also bring
some precipitation chances to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 627 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. While
isolated thunderstorms are possible, an upper level ridge of high
pressure will greatly limit chances and areal extent.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ056>058-068>071-079>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening FOR MOZ055-066-067-077-078-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KSGF 271131
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
631 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Muggy conditions continued over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Early morning temperatures struggled to cool out
of the 80s as dew points rose into the middle 70s.

All precipitation was out of state this morning, and should remain
away from the Ozarks through most of today. Look for another
sweltering day with heat indices ranging from 100 to 110 degrees.

We have expanded the Excessive Heat Warning for the Osage River
Valley through Benton County. Many of these locations within the
Warning are now reaching 4 consecutive days of 105 degrees or
greater.

For tonight, not much will change with overnight lows ranging from
the middle 70s to the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

The summertime high is expected to continue expanding over the
Ozarks. This pattern will bring even hotter temperatures, although
dew points may have a shot to mix down a bit during the afternoon.

The heat headlines could possibly come to an end by Wednesday, as
some relief will occur with the passage of a cold front. This
frontal system will also trigger showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The summertime high then refocuses over the Great Basin through
the end of the week. This will mitigate temperatures from reaching
the 90s Thursday through the weekend. This pattern will also bring
some precipitation chances to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 627 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. While
isolated thunderstorms are possible, an upper level ridge of high
pressure will greatly limit chances and areal extent.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ056>058-068>071-079>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening FOR MOZ055-066-067-077-078-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 271131
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
631 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Muggy conditions continued over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Early morning temperatures struggled to cool out
of the 80s as dew points rose into the middle 70s.

All precipitation was out of state this morning, and should remain
away from the Ozarks through most of today. Look for another
sweltering day with heat indices ranging from 100 to 110 degrees.

We have expanded the Excessive Heat Warning for the Osage River
Valley through Benton County. Many of these locations within the
Warning are now reaching 4 consecutive days of 105 degrees or
greater.

For tonight, not much will change with overnight lows ranging from
the middle 70s to the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

The summertime high is expected to continue expanding over the
Ozarks. This pattern will bring even hotter temperatures, although
dew points may have a shot to mix down a bit during the afternoon.

The heat headlines could possibly come to an end by Wednesday, as
some relief will occur with the passage of a cold front. This
frontal system will also trigger showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The summertime high then refocuses over the Great Basin through
the end of the week. This will mitigate temperatures from reaching
the 90s Thursday through the weekend. This pattern will also bring
some precipitation chances to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 627 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. While
isolated thunderstorms are possible, an upper level ridge of high
pressure will greatly limit chances and areal extent.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ056>058-068>071-079>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening FOR MOZ055-066-067-077-078-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KEAX 271048
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Today through Tuesday:

The main concern through this period will be the continued heat.
Early this morning showers and thunderstorms have moved into central
Kansas which has sent a cirrus shield over the local area. This
cirrus shield will hang around through mid morning however, partly
to mostly sunny skies will allow temperatures to rise quickly this
afternoon. Good mixing up to 850mb with temperatures between 22C-24C
will yield highs in the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints are a bit more
challenging today as mid to upper 70s reside across the area this
morning. looking back across central Kansas, dewpoints have drops
into the upper 60s however. That being said, think we will at least
see slightly lower dewpoints over the southwestern CWA this
afternoon in the lower 70s. This will still yield heat index values
in the 102-107 range. As such, have continued the Excessive Heat
Warning and Heat Advisory we have in place. The main conundrum was
to extend it through Tuesday however, there still remains some
uncertainties with overnight convection and its residual cloud cover
for tomorrow. Models however, would suggest a similar thermal
profile to today with perhaps even deeper mixing on Tuesday. Highs
will again rise into the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints also look similar
to today in the low to mid 70s which again yield heat index values
in the 102-109 range. However, if thunderstorms west of the area
tomorrow morning are able to push far enough east into the forecast
area, as suggested by the NAM, this could put a wrench in the
temperature forecast.

Tuesday night - Friday:

Tuesday night will be the next chance for organized precipitation as
models are in good agreement that a cold front will be encroaching on
northwestern Missouri by 00Z Wed. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to move into the area Tuesday night however, forcing will
be weak as the upper trough associated with this front is well north
of the area near the US/Canadian border. As such, severe weather is
not anticipated however, PWAT values around 2" will again make heavy
rain a possibility. Showers and thunderstorms will continue through
Wednesday morning as the front clears the area. This will make for
much more pleasant temperatures on Wednesday with highs in the mid
to upper 80s. Wednesday night, a surface ridge of high pressure is
expected to move over the region and will be in control over the
area through Friday. This will allow for dry conditions and
continued pleasant highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Friday night - Monday:

Some models difference regarding the strength of the upper level
ridge over the southern CONUS during this time frame is leading to
uncertainty as far as precipitation chances through the period. The
GFS keep the ridge axis over the southwestern CONUS allowing for
thunderstorm chances across the northern CWA Friday night and
Saturday night. It also allows a front to drive through the area on
Sunday night/Monday bringing another round of thunderstorms to the
area. The EC is stronger with the upper ridge across the southern
CONUS leading to a warmer and drier forecast. With these model
difference have maintain the solution inherited by the
initialization.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 548 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

A decaying area of showers and thunderstorms across central Kansas is
sending a bkn-ovc shield of cirrus clouds into the terminals this
morning. This cirrus shield will become more scattered this
afternoon. A few cu clouds around 4-5kft will be possible from late
morning into the afternoon as well. This evening into the overnight
expect just sct mid-lvl clouds. Light winds this morning will pick up out
of the south around 5-10kts by mid-morning

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for KSZ025-102.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for KSZ057-060-103>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-030>033-038>040-044>046.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for MOZ028-029-037-043-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73



000
FXUS63 KEAX 271048
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Today through Tuesday:

The main concern through this period will be the continued heat.
Early this morning showers and thunderstorms have moved into central
Kansas which has sent a cirrus shield over the local area. This
cirrus shield will hang around through mid morning however, partly
to mostly sunny skies will allow temperatures to rise quickly this
afternoon. Good mixing up to 850mb with temperatures between 22C-24C
will yield highs in the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints are a bit more
challenging today as mid to upper 70s reside across the area this
morning. looking back across central Kansas, dewpoints have drops
into the upper 60s however. That being said, think we will at least
see slightly lower dewpoints over the southwestern CWA this
afternoon in the lower 70s. This will still yield heat index values
in the 102-107 range. As such, have continued the Excessive Heat
Warning and Heat Advisory we have in place. The main conundrum was
to extend it through Tuesday however, there still remains some
uncertainties with overnight convection and its residual cloud cover
for tomorrow. Models however, would suggest a similar thermal
profile to today with perhaps even deeper mixing on Tuesday. Highs
will again rise into the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints also look similar
to today in the low to mid 70s which again yield heat index values
in the 102-109 range. However, if thunderstorms west of the area
tomorrow morning are able to push far enough east into the forecast
area, as suggested by the NAM, this could put a wrench in the
temperature forecast.

Tuesday night - Friday:

Tuesday night will be the next chance for organized precipitation as
models are in good agreement that a cold front will be encroaching on
northwestern Missouri by 00Z Wed. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to move into the area Tuesday night however, forcing will
be weak as the upper trough associated with this front is well north
of the area near the US/Canadian border. As such, severe weather is
not anticipated however, PWAT values around 2" will again make heavy
rain a possibility. Showers and thunderstorms will continue through
Wednesday morning as the front clears the area. This will make for
much more pleasant temperatures on Wednesday with highs in the mid
to upper 80s. Wednesday night, a surface ridge of high pressure is
expected to move over the region and will be in control over the
area through Friday. This will allow for dry conditions and
continued pleasant highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Friday night - Monday:

Some models difference regarding the strength of the upper level
ridge over the southern CONUS during this time frame is leading to
uncertainty as far as precipitation chances through the period. The
GFS keep the ridge axis over the southwestern CONUS allowing for
thunderstorm chances across the northern CWA Friday night and
Saturday night. It also allows a front to drive through the area on
Sunday night/Monday bringing another round of thunderstorms to the
area. The EC is stronger with the upper ridge across the southern
CONUS leading to a warmer and drier forecast. With these model
difference have maintain the solution inherited by the
initialization.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 548 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

A decaying area of showers and thunderstorms across central Kansas is
sending a bkn-ovc shield of cirrus clouds into the terminals this
morning. This cirrus shield will become more scattered this
afternoon. A few cu clouds around 4-5kft will be possible from late
morning into the afternoon as well. This evening into the overnight
expect just sct mid-lvl clouds. Light winds this morning will pick up out
of the south around 5-10kts by mid-morning

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for KSZ025-102.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for KSZ057-060-103>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-030>033-038>040-044>046.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for MOZ028-029-037-043-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73




000
FXUS63 KEAX 271048
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Today through Tuesday:

The main concern through this period will be the continued heat.
Early this morning showers and thunderstorms have moved into central
Kansas which has sent a cirrus shield over the local area. This
cirrus shield will hang around through mid morning however, partly
to mostly sunny skies will allow temperatures to rise quickly this
afternoon. Good mixing up to 850mb with temperatures between 22C-24C
will yield highs in the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints are a bit more
challenging today as mid to upper 70s reside across the area this
morning. looking back across central Kansas, dewpoints have drops
into the upper 60s however. That being said, think we will at least
see slightly lower dewpoints over the southwestern CWA this
afternoon in the lower 70s. This will still yield heat index values
in the 102-107 range. As such, have continued the Excessive Heat
Warning and Heat Advisory we have in place. The main conundrum was
to extend it through Tuesday however, there still remains some
uncertainties with overnight convection and its residual cloud cover
for tomorrow. Models however, would suggest a similar thermal
profile to today with perhaps even deeper mixing on Tuesday. Highs
will again rise into the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints also look similar
to today in the low to mid 70s which again yield heat index values
in the 102-109 range. However, if thunderstorms west of the area
tomorrow morning are able to push far enough east into the forecast
area, as suggested by the NAM, this could put a wrench in the
temperature forecast.

Tuesday night - Friday:

Tuesday night will be the next chance for organized precipitation as
models are in good agreement that a cold front will be encroaching on
northwestern Missouri by 00Z Wed. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to move into the area Tuesday night however, forcing will
be weak as the upper trough associated with this front is well north
of the area near the US/Canadian border. As such, severe weather is
not anticipated however, PWAT values around 2" will again make heavy
rain a possibility. Showers and thunderstorms will continue through
Wednesday morning as the front clears the area. This will make for
much more pleasant temperatures on Wednesday with highs in the mid
to upper 80s. Wednesday night, a surface ridge of high pressure is
expected to move over the region and will be in control over the
area through Friday. This will allow for dry conditions and
continued pleasant highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Friday night - Monday:

Some models difference regarding the strength of the upper level
ridge over the southern CONUS during this time frame is leading to
uncertainty as far as precipitation chances through the period. The
GFS keep the ridge axis over the southwestern CONUS allowing for
thunderstorm chances across the northern CWA Friday night and
Saturday night. It also allows a front to drive through the area on
Sunday night/Monday bringing another round of thunderstorms to the
area. The EC is stronger with the upper ridge across the southern
CONUS leading to a warmer and drier forecast. With these model
difference have maintain the solution inherited by the
initialization.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 548 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

A decaying area of showers and thunderstorms across central Kansas is
sending a bkn-ovc shield of cirrus clouds into the terminals this
morning. This cirrus shield will become more scattered this
afternoon. A few cu clouds around 4-5kft will be possible from late
morning into the afternoon as well. This evening into the overnight
expect just sct mid-lvl clouds. Light winds this morning will pick up out
of the south around 5-10kts by mid-morning

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for KSZ025-102.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for KSZ057-060-103>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-030>033-038>040-044>046.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for MOZ028-029-037-043-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73



000
FXUS63 KEAX 271048
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Today through Tuesday:

The main concern through this period will be the continued heat.
Early this morning showers and thunderstorms have moved into central
Kansas which has sent a cirrus shield over the local area. This
cirrus shield will hang around through mid morning however, partly
to mostly sunny skies will allow temperatures to rise quickly this
afternoon. Good mixing up to 850mb with temperatures between 22C-24C
will yield highs in the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints are a bit more
challenging today as mid to upper 70s reside across the area this
morning. looking back across central Kansas, dewpoints have drops
into the upper 60s however. That being said, think we will at least
see slightly lower dewpoints over the southwestern CWA this
afternoon in the lower 70s. This will still yield heat index values
in the 102-107 range. As such, have continued the Excessive Heat
Warning and Heat Advisory we have in place. The main conundrum was
to extend it through Tuesday however, there still remains some
uncertainties with overnight convection and its residual cloud cover
for tomorrow. Models however, would suggest a similar thermal
profile to today with perhaps even deeper mixing on Tuesday. Highs
will again rise into the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints also look similar
to today in the low to mid 70s which again yield heat index values
in the 102-109 range. However, if thunderstorms west of the area
tomorrow morning are able to push far enough east into the forecast
area, as suggested by the NAM, this could put a wrench in the
temperature forecast.

Tuesday night - Friday:

Tuesday night will be the next chance for organized precipitation as
models are in good agreement that a cold front will be encroaching on
northwestern Missouri by 00Z Wed. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to move into the area Tuesday night however, forcing will
be weak as the upper trough associated with this front is well north
of the area near the US/Canadian border. As such, severe weather is
not anticipated however, PWAT values around 2" will again make heavy
rain a possibility. Showers and thunderstorms will continue through
Wednesday morning as the front clears the area. This will make for
much more pleasant temperatures on Wednesday with highs in the mid
to upper 80s. Wednesday night, a surface ridge of high pressure is
expected to move over the region and will be in control over the
area through Friday. This will allow for dry conditions and
continued pleasant highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Friday night - Monday:

Some models difference regarding the strength of the upper level
ridge over the southern CONUS during this time frame is leading to
uncertainty as far as precipitation chances through the period. The
GFS keep the ridge axis over the southwestern CONUS allowing for
thunderstorm chances across the northern CWA Friday night and
Saturday night. It also allows a front to drive through the area on
Sunday night/Monday bringing another round of thunderstorms to the
area. The EC is stronger with the upper ridge across the southern
CONUS leading to a warmer and drier forecast. With these model
difference have maintain the solution inherited by the
initialization.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 548 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

A decaying area of showers and thunderstorms across central Kansas is
sending a bkn-ovc shield of cirrus clouds into the terminals this
morning. This cirrus shield will become more scattered this
afternoon. A few cu clouds around 4-5kft will be possible from late
morning into the afternoon as well. This evening into the overnight
expect just sct mid-lvl clouds. Light winds this morning will pick up out
of the south around 5-10kts by mid-morning

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for KSZ025-102.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for KSZ057-060-103>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-030>033-038>040-044>046.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for MOZ028-029-037-043-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73




000
FXUS63 KLSX 270903
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
403 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONVECTION JUST REFUSES TO DIE OVER THE CWA, WITH HIT AND MISS
ECHOES SHOWING UP THROUGHOUT THE PREDAWN HOURS IN A BROAD BAND ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  LARGEST AND MOST PERSISTENT AREA OF PRECIP
HAS BEEN OVER OUR SE COUNTIES SOUTHEAST OF STL METRO, WHERE IT
APPEARS VERY WEAK WAA INTERACTING WITH CONTINUALLY RAIN-COOLED
BOUNDARY IS ALLOWING CONVECTION TO REGENERATE.  IN SPITE OF THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THE VARIOUS
HI-RES EXPLICIT MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SPOTTY CONVECTION OVER
ALL BUT OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES, AND JUDGING HOW THERMAL PROFILE OF
AMS IS NEARLY UNCHANGED CARRYING SOME LOW/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOKS
APPROPRIATE. HAVE PLACED HIGHEST POPS...SUCH AS THEY ARE...NEAR
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SUGGESTED AT BY NAM AND RUC FROM N OF COU
THRU STL AREA.

WITHOUT FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MORNING PRECIP, TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA SHOULD WARM NICELY TODAY. THERE IS EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM
CIRRUS FROM CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS, BUT IT SHOULD CERTAINLY THIN
AS CONVECTION WANES AND AS THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE DRIFTS INTO THE
HEART OF THE RIDGE, AND HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH THE LOW TO MID
90S. DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY WELL IN THE 70S, AND AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR FURTHER POOLING OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO, ALL PARAMETERS POINT TO A VERY STEAMY
JULY AFTERNOON, WITH THE HEAT INDEX REACHING 105 DEGREES OVER MOST
OF THE CWA. GOING HEAT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS ON THE MARK.

TRUETT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

(TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)

HIGH LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY REACH THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS
DURING THIS RECENT STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH MID
90S COMMON ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RATCHET
UP A NOTCH FROM TODAY`S LEVELS, WITH FORECAST COMBO OF HOURLY
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS YIELDING VALUES IN THE 105-110 RANGE ACROSS THE
REGION. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
THE FA COULD ONCE AGAIN PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 ON
WEDNESDAY BUT THREAT LOOKS LOW AT THIS POINT...SO WILL MAINTAIN
TIMING AND LOCATION OF CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW.

CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SUGGESTS THAT THREAT OF CONVECTION SHOULD WANE EVEN MORE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME VERY LOW POPS THIS
EVENING...PRIMARILY FOR ANY LEFT-OVER AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...AND
ALSO CONTINUED SOME LOW POPS IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ON
TUESDAY WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE THEIR COOLEST.

OVERNIGHT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE THIS MAY
BE ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE THERE IS A BROAD BAND OF
CONVECTION THAT IGNITES ALONG THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
THIS BAND OF PRECIP HAVING TROUBLE WORKING SOUTH AS COLD
FRONT...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW...OUTRUNS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH ALSO
LOOKS QUESTIONABLE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS CURRENT
FORECASTS INDICATE VERY LITTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY.

(THURSDAY-SUNDAY)

ALL MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL TROF DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WHILE HEIGHTS
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY RETROGRADES INTO THE WESTERN U.S.
ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW CAN BE SUBTLY STORMY, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR AREA FOR THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL, BUT THERE SHOULD BE NOTICIABLY
LESS HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS PRIMARILY IN THE 60S.

DID STAY WITH MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SUGGESTS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PRODUCING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY
SUNDAY IN SOME AREAS.

TRUETT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

ISOLATE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP...NORTHEAST AND TO THE SOUTH OF STL. THIS MOST LIKELY FROM
SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE 850 MB
WIND. WIND BEGINS TO BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO THE FLOW BY 06Z AND
FINISHED THE PROCESS BY 12Z. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
CONTINUED SPOTTER DEVELOPMENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS YET. THE LATEST
HRRR-CR AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO AND PLACEMENT PRETTY WELL.
PRIMARY MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED ACTIVITY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH VERY LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.
WITH LIGHT WIND AND RECENT RAIN AT MOST LOCATIONS WILL GO WITH A
TEMPO FOR A COUPLE HOURS OF MORING FOG.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE AREA. DEPENDING ON LOCATION...MAY
CONTINUE THE VCTS A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEYOND 06Z. A LITTLE
CONCERNED WITH POSSIBLE FOG IN THE MORNING GIVEN RECENT RAIN. AS
USUAL THE MET GUIDANCE HITS CIG/VIS HARD WITH THE MAV VFR. WILL GO
AHEAD AND THROW IN A TEMPO FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS MONDAY MORNING.

JPK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     94  80  97  81 /  20  20  10  20
QUINCY          91  75  94  74 /  20  20  10  30
COLUMBIA        94  76  96  75 /  10  10  10  20
JEFFERSON CITY  95  76  98  76 /  10  10  10  20
SALEM           91  75  93  77 /  20  20  20  20
FARMINGTON      92  75  94  76 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-
     CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-
     KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-
     MONTGOMERY MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-SHELBY MO-ST.
     CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
     STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-
     COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-OSAGE MO.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ADAMS IL-
     BOND IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-
     JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-
     MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON
     IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 270903
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
403 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONVECTION JUST REFUSES TO DIE OVER THE CWA, WITH HIT AND MISS
ECHOES SHOWING UP THROUGHOUT THE PREDAWN HOURS IN A BROAD BAND ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  LARGEST AND MOST PERSISTENT AREA OF PRECIP
HAS BEEN OVER OUR SE COUNTIES SOUTHEAST OF STL METRO, WHERE IT
APPEARS VERY WEAK WAA INTERACTING WITH CONTINUALLY RAIN-COOLED
BOUNDARY IS ALLOWING CONVECTION TO REGENERATE.  IN SPITE OF THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THE VARIOUS
HI-RES EXPLICIT MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SPOTTY CONVECTION OVER
ALL BUT OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES, AND JUDGING HOW THERMAL PROFILE OF
AMS IS NEARLY UNCHANGED CARRYING SOME LOW/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOKS
APPROPRIATE. HAVE PLACED HIGHEST POPS...SUCH AS THEY ARE...NEAR
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SUGGESTED AT BY NAM AND RUC FROM N OF COU
THRU STL AREA.

WITHOUT FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MORNING PRECIP, TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA SHOULD WARM NICELY TODAY. THERE IS EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM
CIRRUS FROM CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS, BUT IT SHOULD CERTAINLY THIN
AS CONVECTION WANES AND AS THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE DRIFTS INTO THE
HEART OF THE RIDGE, AND HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH THE LOW TO MID
90S. DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY WELL IN THE 70S, AND AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR FURTHER POOLING OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO, ALL PARAMETERS POINT TO A VERY STEAMY
JULY AFTERNOON, WITH THE HEAT INDEX REACHING 105 DEGREES OVER MOST
OF THE CWA. GOING HEAT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS ON THE MARK.

TRUETT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

(TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)

HIGH LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY REACH THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS
DURING THIS RECENT STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH MID
90S COMMON ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RATCHET
UP A NOTCH FROM TODAY`S LEVELS, WITH FORECAST COMBO OF HOURLY
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS YIELDING VALUES IN THE 105-110 RANGE ACROSS THE
REGION. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
THE FA COULD ONCE AGAIN PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 ON
WEDNESDAY BUT THREAT LOOKS LOW AT THIS POINT...SO WILL MAINTAIN
TIMING AND LOCATION OF CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW.

CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SUGGESTS THAT THREAT OF CONVECTION SHOULD WANE EVEN MORE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME VERY LOW POPS THIS
EVENING...PRIMARILY FOR ANY LEFT-OVER AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...AND
ALSO CONTINUED SOME LOW POPS IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ON
TUESDAY WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE THEIR COOLEST.

OVERNIGHT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE THIS MAY
BE ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE THERE IS A BROAD BAND OF
CONVECTION THAT IGNITES ALONG THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
THIS BAND OF PRECIP HAVING TROUBLE WORKING SOUTH AS COLD
FRONT...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW...OUTRUNS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH ALSO
LOOKS QUESTIONABLE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS CURRENT
FORECASTS INDICATE VERY LITTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY.

(THURSDAY-SUNDAY)

ALL MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL TROF DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WHILE HEIGHTS
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY RETROGRADES INTO THE WESTERN U.S.
ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW CAN BE SUBTLY STORMY, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR AREA FOR THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL, BUT THERE SHOULD BE NOTICIABLY
LESS HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS PRIMARILY IN THE 60S.

DID STAY WITH MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SUGGESTS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PRODUCING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY
SUNDAY IN SOME AREAS.

TRUETT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

ISOLATE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP...NORTHEAST AND TO THE SOUTH OF STL. THIS MOST LIKELY FROM
SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE 850 MB
WIND. WIND BEGINS TO BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO THE FLOW BY 06Z AND
FINISHED THE PROCESS BY 12Z. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
CONTINUED SPOTTER DEVELOPMENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS YET. THE LATEST
HRRR-CR AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO AND PLACEMENT PRETTY WELL.
PRIMARY MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED ACTIVITY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH VERY LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.
WITH LIGHT WIND AND RECENT RAIN AT MOST LOCATIONS WILL GO WITH A
TEMPO FOR A COUPLE HOURS OF MORING FOG.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE AREA. DEPENDING ON LOCATION...MAY
CONTINUE THE VCTS A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEYOND 06Z. A LITTLE
CONCERNED WITH POSSIBLE FOG IN THE MORNING GIVEN RECENT RAIN. AS
USUAL THE MET GUIDANCE HITS CIG/VIS HARD WITH THE MAV VFR. WILL GO
AHEAD AND THROW IN A TEMPO FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS MONDAY MORNING.

JPK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     94  80  97  81 /  20  20  10  20
QUINCY          91  75  94  74 /  20  20  10  30
COLUMBIA        94  76  96  75 /  10  10  10  20
JEFFERSON CITY  95  76  98  76 /  10  10  10  20
SALEM           91  75  93  77 /  20  20  20  20
FARMINGTON      92  75  94  76 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-
     CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-
     KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-
     MONTGOMERY MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-SHELBY MO-ST.
     CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
     STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-
     COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-OSAGE MO.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ADAMS IL-
     BOND IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-
     JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-
     MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON
     IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 270903
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
403 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONVECTION JUST REFUSES TO DIE OVER THE CWA, WITH HIT AND MISS
ECHOES SHOWING UP THROUGHOUT THE PREDAWN HOURS IN A BROAD BAND ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  LARGEST AND MOST PERSISTENT AREA OF PRECIP
HAS BEEN OVER OUR SE COUNTIES SOUTHEAST OF STL METRO, WHERE IT
APPEARS VERY WEAK WAA INTERACTING WITH CONTINUALLY RAIN-COOLED
BOUNDARY IS ALLOWING CONVECTION TO REGENERATE.  IN SPITE OF THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THE VARIOUS
HI-RES EXPLICIT MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SPOTTY CONVECTION OVER
ALL BUT OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES, AND JUDGING HOW THERMAL PROFILE OF
AMS IS NEARLY UNCHANGED CARRYING SOME LOW/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOKS
APPROPRIATE. HAVE PLACED HIGHEST POPS...SUCH AS THEY ARE...NEAR
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SUGGESTED AT BY NAM AND RUC FROM N OF COU
THRU STL AREA.

WITHOUT FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MORNING PRECIP, TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA SHOULD WARM NICELY TODAY. THERE IS EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM
CIRRUS FROM CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS, BUT IT SHOULD CERTAINLY THIN
AS CONVECTION WANES AND AS THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE DRIFTS INTO THE
HEART OF THE RIDGE, AND HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH THE LOW TO MID
90S. DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY WELL IN THE 70S, AND AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR FURTHER POOLING OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO, ALL PARAMETERS POINT TO A VERY STEAMY
JULY AFTERNOON, WITH THE HEAT INDEX REACHING 105 DEGREES OVER MOST
OF THE CWA. GOING HEAT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS ON THE MARK.

TRUETT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

(TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)

HIGH LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY REACH THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS
DURING THIS RECENT STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH MID
90S COMMON ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RATCHET
UP A NOTCH FROM TODAY`S LEVELS, WITH FORECAST COMBO OF HOURLY
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS YIELDING VALUES IN THE 105-110 RANGE ACROSS THE
REGION. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
THE FA COULD ONCE AGAIN PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 ON
WEDNESDAY BUT THREAT LOOKS LOW AT THIS POINT...SO WILL MAINTAIN
TIMING AND LOCATION OF CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW.

CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SUGGESTS THAT THREAT OF CONVECTION SHOULD WANE EVEN MORE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME VERY LOW POPS THIS
EVENING...PRIMARILY FOR ANY LEFT-OVER AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...AND
ALSO CONTINUED SOME LOW POPS IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ON
TUESDAY WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE THEIR COOLEST.

OVERNIGHT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE THIS MAY
BE ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE THERE IS A BROAD BAND OF
CONVECTION THAT IGNITES ALONG THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
THIS BAND OF PRECIP HAVING TROUBLE WORKING SOUTH AS COLD
FRONT...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW...OUTRUNS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH ALSO
LOOKS QUESTIONABLE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS CURRENT
FORECASTS INDICATE VERY LITTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY.

(THURSDAY-SUNDAY)

ALL MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL TROF DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WHILE HEIGHTS
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY RETROGRADES INTO THE WESTERN U.S.
ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW CAN BE SUBTLY STORMY, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR AREA FOR THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL, BUT THERE SHOULD BE NOTICIABLY
LESS HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS PRIMARILY IN THE 60S.

DID STAY WITH MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SUGGESTS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PRODUCING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY
SUNDAY IN SOME AREAS.

TRUETT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

ISOLATE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP...NORTHEAST AND TO THE SOUTH OF STL. THIS MOST LIKELY FROM
SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE 850 MB
WIND. WIND BEGINS TO BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO THE FLOW BY 06Z AND
FINISHED THE PROCESS BY 12Z. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
CONTINUED SPOTTER DEVELOPMENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS YET. THE LATEST
HRRR-CR AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO AND PLACEMENT PRETTY WELL.
PRIMARY MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED ACTIVITY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH VERY LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.
WITH LIGHT WIND AND RECENT RAIN AT MOST LOCATIONS WILL GO WITH A
TEMPO FOR A COUPLE HOURS OF MORING FOG.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE AREA. DEPENDING ON LOCATION...MAY
CONTINUE THE VCTS A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEYOND 06Z. A LITTLE
CONCERNED WITH POSSIBLE FOG IN THE MORNING GIVEN RECENT RAIN. AS
USUAL THE MET GUIDANCE HITS CIG/VIS HARD WITH THE MAV VFR. WILL GO
AHEAD AND THROW IN A TEMPO FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS MONDAY MORNING.

JPK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     94  80  97  81 /  20  20  10  20
QUINCY          91  75  94  74 /  20  20  10  30
COLUMBIA        94  76  96  75 /  10  10  10  20
JEFFERSON CITY  95  76  98  76 /  10  10  10  20
SALEM           91  75  93  77 /  20  20  20  20
FARMINGTON      92  75  94  76 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-
     CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-
     KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-
     MONTGOMERY MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-SHELBY MO-ST.
     CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
     STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-
     COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-OSAGE MO.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ADAMS IL-
     BOND IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-
     JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-
     MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON
     IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 270903
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
403 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONVECTION JUST REFUSES TO DIE OVER THE CWA, WITH HIT AND MISS
ECHOES SHOWING UP THROUGHOUT THE PREDAWN HOURS IN A BROAD BAND ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  LARGEST AND MOST PERSISTENT AREA OF PRECIP
HAS BEEN OVER OUR SE COUNTIES SOUTHEAST OF STL METRO, WHERE IT
APPEARS VERY WEAK WAA INTERACTING WITH CONTINUALLY RAIN-COOLED
BOUNDARY IS ALLOWING CONVECTION TO REGENERATE.  IN SPITE OF THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THE VARIOUS
HI-RES EXPLICIT MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SPOTTY CONVECTION OVER
ALL BUT OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES, AND JUDGING HOW THERMAL PROFILE OF
AMS IS NEARLY UNCHANGED CARRYING SOME LOW/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOKS
APPROPRIATE. HAVE PLACED HIGHEST POPS...SUCH AS THEY ARE...NEAR
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SUGGESTED AT BY NAM AND RUC FROM N OF COU
THRU STL AREA.

WITHOUT FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MORNING PRECIP, TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA SHOULD WARM NICELY TODAY. THERE IS EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM
CIRRUS FROM CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS, BUT IT SHOULD CERTAINLY THIN
AS CONVECTION WANES AND AS THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE DRIFTS INTO THE
HEART OF THE RIDGE, AND HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH THE LOW TO MID
90S. DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY WELL IN THE 70S, AND AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR FURTHER POOLING OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO, ALL PARAMETERS POINT TO A VERY STEAMY
JULY AFTERNOON, WITH THE HEAT INDEX REACHING 105 DEGREES OVER MOST
OF THE CWA. GOING HEAT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS ON THE MARK.

TRUETT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

(TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)

HIGH LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY REACH THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS
DURING THIS RECENT STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH MID
90S COMMON ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RATCHET
UP A NOTCH FROM TODAY`S LEVELS, WITH FORECAST COMBO OF HOURLY
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS YIELDING VALUES IN THE 105-110 RANGE ACROSS THE
REGION. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
THE FA COULD ONCE AGAIN PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 ON
WEDNESDAY BUT THREAT LOOKS LOW AT THIS POINT...SO WILL MAINTAIN
TIMING AND LOCATION OF CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW.

CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SUGGESTS THAT THREAT OF CONVECTION SHOULD WANE EVEN MORE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME VERY LOW POPS THIS
EVENING...PRIMARILY FOR ANY LEFT-OVER AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...AND
ALSO CONTINUED SOME LOW POPS IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ON
TUESDAY WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE THEIR COOLEST.

OVERNIGHT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE THIS MAY
BE ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE THERE IS A BROAD BAND OF
CONVECTION THAT IGNITES ALONG THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
THIS BAND OF PRECIP HAVING TROUBLE WORKING SOUTH AS COLD
FRONT...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW...OUTRUNS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH ALSO
LOOKS QUESTIONABLE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS CURRENT
FORECASTS INDICATE VERY LITTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY.

(THURSDAY-SUNDAY)

ALL MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL TROF DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WHILE HEIGHTS
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY RETROGRADES INTO THE WESTERN U.S.
ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW CAN BE SUBTLY STORMY, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR AREA FOR THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL, BUT THERE SHOULD BE NOTICIABLY
LESS HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS PRIMARILY IN THE 60S.

DID STAY WITH MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SUGGESTS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PRODUCING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY
SUNDAY IN SOME AREAS.

TRUETT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

ISOLATE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP...NORTHEAST AND TO THE SOUTH OF STL. THIS MOST LIKELY FROM
SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE 850 MB
WIND. WIND BEGINS TO BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO THE FLOW BY 06Z AND
FINISHED THE PROCESS BY 12Z. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
CONTINUED SPOTTER DEVELOPMENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS YET. THE LATEST
HRRR-CR AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO AND PLACEMENT PRETTY WELL.
PRIMARY MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED ACTIVITY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH VERY LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.
WITH LIGHT WIND AND RECENT RAIN AT MOST LOCATIONS WILL GO WITH A
TEMPO FOR A COUPLE HOURS OF MORING FOG.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE AREA. DEPENDING ON LOCATION...MAY
CONTINUE THE VCTS A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEYOND 06Z. A LITTLE
CONCERNED WITH POSSIBLE FOG IN THE MORNING GIVEN RECENT RAIN. AS
USUAL THE MET GUIDANCE HITS CIG/VIS HARD WITH THE MAV VFR. WILL GO
AHEAD AND THROW IN A TEMPO FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS MONDAY MORNING.

JPK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     94  80  97  81 /  20  20  10  20
QUINCY          91  75  94  74 /  20  20  10  30
COLUMBIA        94  76  96  75 /  10  10  10  20
JEFFERSON CITY  95  76  98  76 /  10  10  10  20
SALEM           91  75  93  77 /  20  20  20  20
FARMINGTON      92  75  94  76 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-
     CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-
     KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-
     MONTGOMERY MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-SHELBY MO-ST.
     CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
     STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-
     COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-OSAGE MO.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ADAMS IL-
     BOND IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-
     JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-
     MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON
     IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 270903
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
403 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONVECTION JUST REFUSES TO DIE OVER THE CWA, WITH HIT AND MISS
ECHOES SHOWING UP THROUGHOUT THE PREDAWN HOURS IN A BROAD BAND ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  LARGEST AND MOST PERSISTENT AREA OF PRECIP
HAS BEEN OVER OUR SE COUNTIES SOUTHEAST OF STL METRO, WHERE IT
APPEARS VERY WEAK WAA INTERACTING WITH CONTINUALLY RAIN-COOLED
BOUNDARY IS ALLOWING CONVECTION TO REGENERATE.  IN SPITE OF THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THE VARIOUS
HI-RES EXPLICIT MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SPOTTY CONVECTION OVER
ALL BUT OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES, AND JUDGING HOW THERMAL PROFILE OF
AMS IS NEARLY UNCHANGED CARRYING SOME LOW/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOKS
APPROPRIATE. HAVE PLACED HIGHEST POPS...SUCH AS THEY ARE...NEAR
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SUGGESTED AT BY NAM AND RUC FROM N OF COU
THRU STL AREA.

WITHOUT FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MORNING PRECIP, TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA SHOULD WARM NICELY TODAY. THERE IS EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM
CIRRUS FROM CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS, BUT IT SHOULD CERTAINLY THIN
AS CONVECTION WANES AND AS THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE DRIFTS INTO THE
HEART OF THE RIDGE, AND HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH THE LOW TO MID
90S. DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY WELL IN THE 70S, AND AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR FURTHER POOLING OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO, ALL PARAMETERS POINT TO A VERY STEAMY
JULY AFTERNOON, WITH THE HEAT INDEX REACHING 105 DEGREES OVER MOST
OF THE CWA. GOING HEAT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS ON THE MARK.

TRUETT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

(TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)

HIGH LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY REACH THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS
DURING THIS RECENT STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH MID
90S COMMON ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RATCHET
UP A NOTCH FROM TODAY`S LEVELS, WITH FORECAST COMBO OF HOURLY
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS YIELDING VALUES IN THE 105-110 RANGE ACROSS THE
REGION. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
THE FA COULD ONCE AGAIN PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 ON
WEDNESDAY BUT THREAT LOOKS LOW AT THIS POINT...SO WILL MAINTAIN
TIMING AND LOCATION OF CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW.

CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SUGGESTS THAT THREAT OF CONVECTION SHOULD WANE EVEN MORE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME VERY LOW POPS THIS
EVENING...PRIMARILY FOR ANY LEFT-OVER AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...AND
ALSO CONTINUED SOME LOW POPS IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ON
TUESDAY WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE THEIR COOLEST.

OVERNIGHT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE THIS MAY
BE ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE THERE IS A BROAD BAND OF
CONVECTION THAT IGNITES ALONG THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
THIS BAND OF PRECIP HAVING TROUBLE WORKING SOUTH AS COLD
FRONT...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW...OUTRUNS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH ALSO
LOOKS QUESTIONABLE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS CURRENT
FORECASTS INDICATE VERY LITTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY.

(THURSDAY-SUNDAY)

ALL MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL TROF DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WHILE HEIGHTS
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY RETROGRADES INTO THE WESTERN U.S.
ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW CAN BE SUBTLY STORMY, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR AREA FOR THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL, BUT THERE SHOULD BE NOTICIABLY
LESS HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS PRIMARILY IN THE 60S.

DID STAY WITH MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SUGGESTS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PRODUCING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY
SUNDAY IN SOME AREAS.

TRUETT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

ISOLATE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP...NORTHEAST AND TO THE SOUTH OF STL. THIS MOST LIKELY FROM
SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE 850 MB
WIND. WIND BEGINS TO BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO THE FLOW BY 06Z AND
FINISHED THE PROCESS BY 12Z. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
CONTINUED SPOTTER DEVELOPMENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS YET. THE LATEST
HRRR-CR AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO AND PLACEMENT PRETTY WELL.
PRIMARY MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED ACTIVITY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH VERY LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.
WITH LIGHT WIND AND RECENT RAIN AT MOST LOCATIONS WILL GO WITH A
TEMPO FOR A COUPLE HOURS OF MORING FOG.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE AREA. DEPENDING ON LOCATION...MAY
CONTINUE THE VCTS A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEYOND 06Z. A LITTLE
CONCERNED WITH POSSIBLE FOG IN THE MORNING GIVEN RECENT RAIN. AS
USUAL THE MET GUIDANCE HITS CIG/VIS HARD WITH THE MAV VFR. WILL GO
AHEAD AND THROW IN A TEMPO FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS MONDAY MORNING.

JPK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     94  80  97  81 /  20  20  10  20
QUINCY          91  75  94  74 /  20  20  10  30
COLUMBIA        94  76  96  75 /  10  10  10  20
JEFFERSON CITY  95  76  98  76 /  10  10  10  20
SALEM           91  75  93  77 /  20  20  20  20
FARMINGTON      92  75  94  76 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-
     CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-
     KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-
     MONTGOMERY MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-SHELBY MO-ST.
     CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
     STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-
     COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-OSAGE MO.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ADAMS IL-
     BOND IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-
     JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-
     MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON
     IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 270903
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
403 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONVECTION JUST REFUSES TO DIE OVER THE CWA, WITH HIT AND MISS
ECHOES SHOWING UP THROUGHOUT THE PREDAWN HOURS IN A BROAD BAND ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  LARGEST AND MOST PERSISTENT AREA OF PRECIP
HAS BEEN OVER OUR SE COUNTIES SOUTHEAST OF STL METRO, WHERE IT
APPEARS VERY WEAK WAA INTERACTING WITH CONTINUALLY RAIN-COOLED
BOUNDARY IS ALLOWING CONVECTION TO REGENERATE.  IN SPITE OF THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THE VARIOUS
HI-RES EXPLICIT MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SPOTTY CONVECTION OVER
ALL BUT OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES, AND JUDGING HOW THERMAL PROFILE OF
AMS IS NEARLY UNCHANGED CARRYING SOME LOW/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOKS
APPROPRIATE. HAVE PLACED HIGHEST POPS...SUCH AS THEY ARE...NEAR
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SUGGESTED AT BY NAM AND RUC FROM N OF COU
THRU STL AREA.

WITHOUT FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MORNING PRECIP, TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA SHOULD WARM NICELY TODAY. THERE IS EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM
CIRRUS FROM CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS, BUT IT SHOULD CERTAINLY THIN
AS CONVECTION WANES AND AS THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE DRIFTS INTO THE
HEART OF THE RIDGE, AND HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH THE LOW TO MID
90S. DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY WELL IN THE 70S, AND AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR FURTHER POOLING OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO, ALL PARAMETERS POINT TO A VERY STEAMY
JULY AFTERNOON, WITH THE HEAT INDEX REACHING 105 DEGREES OVER MOST
OF THE CWA. GOING HEAT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS ON THE MARK.

TRUETT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

(TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)

HIGH LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY REACH THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS
DURING THIS RECENT STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH MID
90S COMMON ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RATCHET
UP A NOTCH FROM TODAY`S LEVELS, WITH FORECAST COMBO OF HOURLY
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS YIELDING VALUES IN THE 105-110 RANGE ACROSS THE
REGION. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
THE FA COULD ONCE AGAIN PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 ON
WEDNESDAY BUT THREAT LOOKS LOW AT THIS POINT...SO WILL MAINTAIN
TIMING AND LOCATION OF CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW.

CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SUGGESTS THAT THREAT OF CONVECTION SHOULD WANE EVEN MORE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME VERY LOW POPS THIS
EVENING...PRIMARILY FOR ANY LEFT-OVER AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...AND
ALSO CONTINUED SOME LOW POPS IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ON
TUESDAY WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE THEIR COOLEST.

OVERNIGHT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE THIS MAY
BE ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE THERE IS A BROAD BAND OF
CONVECTION THAT IGNITES ALONG THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
THIS BAND OF PRECIP HAVING TROUBLE WORKING SOUTH AS COLD
FRONT...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW...OUTRUNS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH ALSO
LOOKS QUESTIONABLE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS CURRENT
FORECASTS INDICATE VERY LITTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY.

(THURSDAY-SUNDAY)

ALL MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL TROF DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WHILE HEIGHTS
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY RETROGRADES INTO THE WESTERN U.S.
ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW CAN BE SUBTLY STORMY, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR AREA FOR THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL, BUT THERE SHOULD BE NOTICIABLY
LESS HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS PRIMARILY IN THE 60S.

DID STAY WITH MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SUGGESTS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PRODUCING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY
SUNDAY IN SOME AREAS.

TRUETT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

ISOLATE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP...NORTHEAST AND TO THE SOUTH OF STL. THIS MOST LIKELY FROM
SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE 850 MB
WIND. WIND BEGINS TO BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO THE FLOW BY 06Z AND
FINISHED THE PROCESS BY 12Z. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
CONTINUED SPOTTER DEVELOPMENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS YET. THE LATEST
HRRR-CR AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO AND PLACEMENT PRETTY WELL.
PRIMARY MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED ACTIVITY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH VERY LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.
WITH LIGHT WIND AND RECENT RAIN AT MOST LOCATIONS WILL GO WITH A
TEMPO FOR A COUPLE HOURS OF MORING FOG.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE AREA. DEPENDING ON LOCATION...MAY
CONTINUE THE VCTS A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEYOND 06Z. A LITTLE
CONCERNED WITH POSSIBLE FOG IN THE MORNING GIVEN RECENT RAIN. AS
USUAL THE MET GUIDANCE HITS CIG/VIS HARD WITH THE MAV VFR. WILL GO
AHEAD AND THROW IN A TEMPO FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS MONDAY MORNING.

JPK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     94  80  97  81 /  20  20  10  20
QUINCY          91  75  94  74 /  20  20  10  30
COLUMBIA        94  76  96  75 /  10  10  10  20
JEFFERSON CITY  95  76  98  76 /  10  10  10  20
SALEM           91  75  93  77 /  20  20  20  20
FARMINGTON      92  75  94  76 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-
     CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-
     KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-
     MONTGOMERY MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-SHELBY MO-ST.
     CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
     STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-
     COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-OSAGE MO.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ADAMS IL-
     BOND IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-
     JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-
     MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON
     IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KEAX 270832
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
332 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Today through Tuesday:

The main concern through this period will be the continued heat.
Early this morning showers and thunderstorms have moved into central
Kansas which has sent a cirrus shield over the local area. This
cirrus shield will hang around through mid morning however, partly
to mostly sunny skies will allow temperatures to rise quickly this
afternoon. Good mixing up to 850mb with temperatures between 22C-24C
will yield highs in the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints are a bit more
challenging today as mid to upper 70s reside across the area this
morning. looking back across central Kansas, dewpoints have drops
into the upper 60s however. That being said, think we will at least
see slightly lower dewpoints over the southwestern CWA this
afternoon in the lower 70s. This will still yield heat index values
in the 102-107 range. As such, have continued the Excessive Heat
Warning and Heat Advisory we have in place. The main conundrum was
to extend it through Tuesday however, there still remains some
uncertainties with overnight convection and its residual cloud cover
for tomorrow. Models however, would suggest a similar thermal
profile to today with perhaps even deeper mixing on Tuesday. Highs
will again rise into the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints also look similar
to today in the low to mid 70s which again yield heat index values
in the 102-109 range. However, if thunderstorms west of the area
tomorrow morning are able to push far enough east into the forecast
area, as suggested by the NAM, this could put a wrench in the
temperature forecast.

Tuesday night - Friday:

Tuesday night will be the next chance for organized precipitation as
models are in good agreement that a cold front will be encroaching on
northwestern Missouri by 00Z Wed. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to move into the area Tuesday night however, forcing will
be weak as the upper trough associated with this front is well north
of the area near the US/Canadian border. As such, severe weather is
not anticipated however, PWAT values around 2" will again make heavy
rain a possibility. Showers and thunderstorms will continue through
Wednesday morning as the front clears the area. This will make for
much more pleasant temperatures on Wednesday with highs in the mid
to upper 80s. Wednesday night, a surface ridge of high pressure is
expected to move over the region and will be in control over the
area through Friday. This will allow for dry conditions and
continued pleasant highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Friday night - Monday:

Some models difference regarding the strength of the upper level
ridge over the southern CONUS during this time frame is leading to
uncertainty as far as precipitation chances through the period. The
GFS keep the ridge axis over the southwestern CONUS allowing for
thunderstorm chances across the northern CWA Friday night and
Saturday night. It also allows a front to drive through the area on
Sunday night/Monday bringing another round of thunderstorms to the
area. The EC is stronger with the upper ridge across the southern
CONUS leading to a warmer and drier forecast. With these model
difference have maintain the solution inherited by the
initialization.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

With the exception of STJ, VFR conditions are likely to continue to
prevail throughout the TAF period. Conditions appear to be favorable
for fog development in and around STJ in the pre-dawn to dawn hours
as winds will be light to calm and low-level moisture will be
abundant with mostly clear skies overhead. Southerly winds will
dominate tomorrow with some mid- to upper-level clouds streaming
through, and perhaps a fair-weather CU field developing in the
afternoon, diminishing after dark.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for KSZ025-102.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for KSZ057-060-103>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-030>033-038>040-044>046.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for MOZ028-029-037-043-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...lg




000
FXUS63 KEAX 270832
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
332 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Today through Tuesday:

The main concern through this period will be the continued heat.
Early this morning showers and thunderstorms have moved into central
Kansas which has sent a cirrus shield over the local area. This
cirrus shield will hang around through mid morning however, partly
to mostly sunny skies will allow temperatures to rise quickly this
afternoon. Good mixing up to 850mb with temperatures between 22C-24C
will yield highs in the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints are a bit more
challenging today as mid to upper 70s reside across the area this
morning. looking back across central Kansas, dewpoints have drops
into the upper 60s however. That being said, think we will at least
see slightly lower dewpoints over the southwestern CWA this
afternoon in the lower 70s. This will still yield heat index values
in the 102-107 range. As such, have continued the Excessive Heat
Warning and Heat Advisory we have in place. The main conundrum was
to extend it through Tuesday however, there still remains some
uncertainties with overnight convection and its residual cloud cover
for tomorrow. Models however, would suggest a similar thermal
profile to today with perhaps even deeper mixing on Tuesday. Highs
will again rise into the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints also look similar
to today in the low to mid 70s which again yield heat index values
in the 102-109 range. However, if thunderstorms west of the area
tomorrow morning are able to push far enough east into the forecast
area, as suggested by the NAM, this could put a wrench in the
temperature forecast.

Tuesday night - Friday:

Tuesday night will be the next chance for organized precipitation as
models are in good agreement that a cold front will be encroaching on
northwestern Missouri by 00Z Wed. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to move into the area Tuesday night however, forcing will
be weak as the upper trough associated with this front is well north
of the area near the US/Canadian border. As such, severe weather is
not anticipated however, PWAT values around 2" will again make heavy
rain a possibility. Showers and thunderstorms will continue through
Wednesday morning as the front clears the area. This will make for
much more pleasant temperatures on Wednesday with highs in the mid
to upper 80s. Wednesday night, a surface ridge of high pressure is
expected to move over the region and will be in control over the
area through Friday. This will allow for dry conditions and
continued pleasant highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Friday night - Monday:

Some models difference regarding the strength of the upper level
ridge over the southern CONUS during this time frame is leading to
uncertainty as far as precipitation chances through the period. The
GFS keep the ridge axis over the southwestern CONUS allowing for
thunderstorm chances across the northern CWA Friday night and
Saturday night. It also allows a front to drive through the area on
Sunday night/Monday bringing another round of thunderstorms to the
area. The EC is stronger with the upper ridge across the southern
CONUS leading to a warmer and drier forecast. With these model
difference have maintain the solution inherited by the
initialization.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

With the exception of STJ, VFR conditions are likely to continue to
prevail throughout the TAF period. Conditions appear to be favorable
for fog development in and around STJ in the pre-dawn to dawn hours
as winds will be light to calm and low-level moisture will be
abundant with mostly clear skies overhead. Southerly winds will
dominate tomorrow with some mid- to upper-level clouds streaming
through, and perhaps a fair-weather CU field developing in the
afternoon, diminishing after dark.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for KSZ025-102.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for KSZ057-060-103>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-030>033-038>040-044>046.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for MOZ028-029-037-043-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...lg




000
FXUS63 KEAX 270832
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
332 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Today through Tuesday:

The main concern through this period will be the continued heat.
Early this morning showers and thunderstorms have moved into central
Kansas which has sent a cirrus shield over the local area. This
cirrus shield will hang around through mid morning however, partly
to mostly sunny skies will allow temperatures to rise quickly this
afternoon. Good mixing up to 850mb with temperatures between 22C-24C
will yield highs in the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints are a bit more
challenging today as mid to upper 70s reside across the area this
morning. looking back across central Kansas, dewpoints have drops
into the upper 60s however. That being said, think we will at least
see slightly lower dewpoints over the southwestern CWA this
afternoon in the lower 70s. This will still yield heat index values
in the 102-107 range. As such, have continued the Excessive Heat
Warning and Heat Advisory we have in place. The main conundrum was
to extend it through Tuesday however, there still remains some
uncertainties with overnight convection and its residual cloud cover
for tomorrow. Models however, would suggest a similar thermal
profile to today with perhaps even deeper mixing on Tuesday. Highs
will again rise into the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints also look similar
to today in the low to mid 70s which again yield heat index values
in the 102-109 range. However, if thunderstorms west of the area
tomorrow morning are able to push far enough east into the forecast
area, as suggested by the NAM, this could put a wrench in the
temperature forecast.

Tuesday night - Friday:

Tuesday night will be the next chance for organized precipitation as
models are in good agreement that a cold front will be encroaching on
northwestern Missouri by 00Z Wed. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to move into the area Tuesday night however, forcing will
be weak as the upper trough associated with this front is well north
of the area near the US/Canadian border. As such, severe weather is
not anticipated however, PWAT values around 2" will again make heavy
rain a possibility. Showers and thunderstorms will continue through
Wednesday morning as the front clears the area. This will make for
much more pleasant temperatures on Wednesday with highs in the mid
to upper 80s. Wednesday night, a surface ridge of high pressure is
expected to move over the region and will be in control over the
area through Friday. This will allow for dry conditions and
continued pleasant highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Friday night - Monday:

Some models difference regarding the strength of the upper level
ridge over the southern CONUS during this time frame is leading to
uncertainty as far as precipitation chances through the period. The
GFS keep the ridge axis over the southwestern CONUS allowing for
thunderstorm chances across the northern CWA Friday night and
Saturday night. It also allows a front to drive through the area on
Sunday night/Monday bringing another round of thunderstorms to the
area. The EC is stronger with the upper ridge across the southern
CONUS leading to a warmer and drier forecast. With these model
difference have maintain the solution inherited by the
initialization.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

With the exception of STJ, VFR conditions are likely to continue to
prevail throughout the TAF period. Conditions appear to be favorable
for fog development in and around STJ in the pre-dawn to dawn hours
as winds will be light to calm and low-level moisture will be
abundant with mostly clear skies overhead. Southerly winds will
dominate tomorrow with some mid- to upper-level clouds streaming
through, and perhaps a fair-weather CU field developing in the
afternoon, diminishing after dark.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for KSZ025-102.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for KSZ057-060-103>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-030>033-038>040-044>046.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for MOZ028-029-037-043-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...lg




000
FXUS63 KEAX 270832
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
332 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Today through Tuesday:

The main concern through this period will be the continued heat.
Early this morning showers and thunderstorms have moved into central
Kansas which has sent a cirrus shield over the local area. This
cirrus shield will hang around through mid morning however, partly
to mostly sunny skies will allow temperatures to rise quickly this
afternoon. Good mixing up to 850mb with temperatures between 22C-24C
will yield highs in the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints are a bit more
challenging today as mid to upper 70s reside across the area this
morning. looking back across central Kansas, dewpoints have drops
into the upper 60s however. That being said, think we will at least
see slightly lower dewpoints over the southwestern CWA this
afternoon in the lower 70s. This will still yield heat index values
in the 102-107 range. As such, have continued the Excessive Heat
Warning and Heat Advisory we have in place. The main conundrum was
to extend it through Tuesday however, there still remains some
uncertainties with overnight convection and its residual cloud cover
for tomorrow. Models however, would suggest a similar thermal
profile to today with perhaps even deeper mixing on Tuesday. Highs
will again rise into the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints also look similar
to today in the low to mid 70s which again yield heat index values
in the 102-109 range. However, if thunderstorms west of the area
tomorrow morning are able to push far enough east into the forecast
area, as suggested by the NAM, this could put a wrench in the
temperature forecast.

Tuesday night - Friday:

Tuesday night will be the next chance for organized precipitation as
models are in good agreement that a cold front will be encroaching on
northwestern Missouri by 00Z Wed. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to move into the area Tuesday night however, forcing will
be weak as the upper trough associated with this front is well north
of the area near the US/Canadian border. As such, severe weather is
not anticipated however, PWAT values around 2" will again make heavy
rain a possibility. Showers and thunderstorms will continue through
Wednesday morning as the front clears the area. This will make for
much more pleasant temperatures on Wednesday with highs in the mid
to upper 80s. Wednesday night, a surface ridge of high pressure is
expected to move over the region and will be in control over the
area through Friday. This will allow for dry conditions and
continued pleasant highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Friday night - Monday:

Some models difference regarding the strength of the upper level
ridge over the southern CONUS during this time frame is leading to
uncertainty as far as precipitation chances through the period. The
GFS keep the ridge axis over the southwestern CONUS allowing for
thunderstorm chances across the northern CWA Friday night and
Saturday night. It also allows a front to drive through the area on
Sunday night/Monday bringing another round of thunderstorms to the
area. The EC is stronger with the upper ridge across the southern
CONUS leading to a warmer and drier forecast. With these model
difference have maintain the solution inherited by the
initialization.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

With the exception of STJ, VFR conditions are likely to continue to
prevail throughout the TAF period. Conditions appear to be favorable
for fog development in and around STJ in the pre-dawn to dawn hours
as winds will be light to calm and low-level moisture will be
abundant with mostly clear skies overhead. Southerly winds will
dominate tomorrow with some mid- to upper-level clouds streaming
through, and perhaps a fair-weather CU field developing in the
afternoon, diminishing after dark.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for KSZ025-102.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for KSZ057-060-103>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-030>033-038>040-044>046.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for MOZ028-029-037-043-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...lg




000
FXUS63 KEAX 270832
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
332 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Today through Tuesday:

The main concern through this period will be the continued heat.
Early this morning showers and thunderstorms have moved into central
Kansas which has sent a cirrus shield over the local area. This
cirrus shield will hang around through mid morning however, partly
to mostly sunny skies will allow temperatures to rise quickly this
afternoon. Good mixing up to 850mb with temperatures between 22C-24C
will yield highs in the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints are a bit more
challenging today as mid to upper 70s reside across the area this
morning. looking back across central Kansas, dewpoints have drops
into the upper 60s however. That being said, think we will at least
see slightly lower dewpoints over the southwestern CWA this
afternoon in the lower 70s. This will still yield heat index values
in the 102-107 range. As such, have continued the Excessive Heat
Warning and Heat Advisory we have in place. The main conundrum was
to extend it through Tuesday however, there still remains some
uncertainties with overnight convection and its residual cloud cover
for tomorrow. Models however, would suggest a similar thermal
profile to today with perhaps even deeper mixing on Tuesday. Highs
will again rise into the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints also look similar
to today in the low to mid 70s which again yield heat index values
in the 102-109 range. However, if thunderstorms west of the area
tomorrow morning are able to push far enough east into the forecast
area, as suggested by the NAM, this could put a wrench in the
temperature forecast.

Tuesday night - Friday:

Tuesday night will be the next chance for organized precipitation as
models are in good agreement that a cold front will be encroaching on
northwestern Missouri by 00Z Wed. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to move into the area Tuesday night however, forcing will
be weak as the upper trough associated with this front is well north
of the area near the US/Canadian border. As such, severe weather is
not anticipated however, PWAT values around 2" will again make heavy
rain a possibility. Showers and thunderstorms will continue through
Wednesday morning as the front clears the area. This will make for
much more pleasant temperatures on Wednesday with highs in the mid
to upper 80s. Wednesday night, a surface ridge of high pressure is
expected to move over the region and will be in control over the
area through Friday. This will allow for dry conditions and
continued pleasant highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Friday night - Monday:

Some models difference regarding the strength of the upper level
ridge over the southern CONUS during this time frame is leading to
uncertainty as far as precipitation chances through the period. The
GFS keep the ridge axis over the southwestern CONUS allowing for
thunderstorm chances across the northern CWA Friday night and
Saturday night. It also allows a front to drive through the area on
Sunday night/Monday bringing another round of thunderstorms to the
area. The EC is stronger with the upper ridge across the southern
CONUS leading to a warmer and drier forecast. With these model
difference have maintain the solution inherited by the
initialization.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

With the exception of STJ, VFR conditions are likely to continue to
prevail throughout the TAF period. Conditions appear to be favorable
for fog development in and around STJ in the pre-dawn to dawn hours
as winds will be light to calm and low-level moisture will be
abundant with mostly clear skies overhead. Southerly winds will
dominate tomorrow with some mid- to upper-level clouds streaming
through, and perhaps a fair-weather CU field developing in the
afternoon, diminishing after dark.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for KSZ025-102.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for KSZ057-060-103>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-030>033-038>040-044>046.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for MOZ028-029-037-043-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...lg




000
FXUS63 KEAX 270832
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
332 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Today through Tuesday:

The main concern through this period will be the continued heat.
Early this morning showers and thunderstorms have moved into central
Kansas which has sent a cirrus shield over the local area. This
cirrus shield will hang around through mid morning however, partly
to mostly sunny skies will allow temperatures to rise quickly this
afternoon. Good mixing up to 850mb with temperatures between 22C-24C
will yield highs in the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints are a bit more
challenging today as mid to upper 70s reside across the area this
morning. looking back across central Kansas, dewpoints have drops
into the upper 60s however. That being said, think we will at least
see slightly lower dewpoints over the southwestern CWA this
afternoon in the lower 70s. This will still yield heat index values
in the 102-107 range. As such, have continued the Excessive Heat
Warning and Heat Advisory we have in place. The main conundrum was
to extend it through Tuesday however, there still remains some
uncertainties with overnight convection and its residual cloud cover
for tomorrow. Models however, would suggest a similar thermal
profile to today with perhaps even deeper mixing on Tuesday. Highs
will again rise into the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints also look similar
to today in the low to mid 70s which again yield heat index values
in the 102-109 range. However, if thunderstorms west of the area
tomorrow morning are able to push far enough east into the forecast
area, as suggested by the NAM, this could put a wrench in the
temperature forecast.

Tuesday night - Friday:

Tuesday night will be the next chance for organized precipitation as
models are in good agreement that a cold front will be encroaching on
northwestern Missouri by 00Z Wed. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to move into the area Tuesday night however, forcing will
be weak as the upper trough associated with this front is well north
of the area near the US/Canadian border. As such, severe weather is
not anticipated however, PWAT values around 2" will again make heavy
rain a possibility. Showers and thunderstorms will continue through
Wednesday morning as the front clears the area. This will make for
much more pleasant temperatures on Wednesday with highs in the mid
to upper 80s. Wednesday night, a surface ridge of high pressure is
expected to move over the region and will be in control over the
area through Friday. This will allow for dry conditions and
continued pleasant highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Friday night - Monday:

Some models difference regarding the strength of the upper level
ridge over the southern CONUS during this time frame is leading to
uncertainty as far as precipitation chances through the period. The
GFS keep the ridge axis over the southwestern CONUS allowing for
thunderstorm chances across the northern CWA Friday night and
Saturday night. It also allows a front to drive through the area on
Sunday night/Monday bringing another round of thunderstorms to the
area. The EC is stronger with the upper ridge across the southern
CONUS leading to a warmer and drier forecast. With these model
difference have maintain the solution inherited by the
initialization.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

With the exception of STJ, VFR conditions are likely to continue to
prevail throughout the TAF period. Conditions appear to be favorable
for fog development in and around STJ in the pre-dawn to dawn hours
as winds will be light to calm and low-level moisture will be
abundant with mostly clear skies overhead. Southerly winds will
dominate tomorrow with some mid- to upper-level clouds streaming
through, and perhaps a fair-weather CU field developing in the
afternoon, diminishing after dark.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for KSZ025-102.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for KSZ057-060-103>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-030>033-038>040-044>046.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for MOZ028-029-037-043-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...lg



000
FXUS63 KSGF 270733
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
233 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Muggy conditions continued over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Early morning temperatures struggled to cool out
of the 80s as dew points rose into the middle 70s.

All precipitation was out of state this morning, and should remain
away from the Ozarks through most of today. Look for another
sweltering day with heat indices ranging from 100 to 110 degrees.

We have expanded the Excessive Heat Warning for the Osage River
Valley through Benton County. Many of these locations within the
Warning are now reaching 4 consecutive days of 105 degrees or
greater.

For tonight, not much will change with overnight lows ranging from
the middle 70s to the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

The summertime high is expected to continue expanding over the
Ozarks. This pattern will bring even hotter temperatures, although
dew points may have a shot to mix down a bit during the afternoon.

The heat headlines could possibly come to an end by Wednesday, as
some relief will occur with the passage of a cold front. This
frontal system will also trigger showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The summertime high then refocuses over the Great Basin through
the end of the week. This will mitigate temperatures from reaching
the 90s Thursday through the weekend. This pattern will also bring
some precipitation chances to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Monday evening with
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Widely scattered
thunderstorms will be possible late Monday afternoon across south
central Missouri. We have maintained a PROB30 group to cover this
threat at Branson. Winds will remain light through the TAF period.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ056>058-068>071-079>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening FOR MOZ055-066-067-077-078-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 270733
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
233 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Muggy conditions continued over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Early morning temperatures struggled to cool out
of the 80s as dew points rose into the middle 70s.

All precipitation was out of state this morning, and should remain
away from the Ozarks through most of today. Look for another
sweltering day with heat indices ranging from 100 to 110 degrees.

We have expanded the Excessive Heat Warning for the Osage River
Valley through Benton County. Many of these locations within the
Warning are now reaching 4 consecutive days of 105 degrees or
greater.

For tonight, not much will change with overnight lows ranging from
the middle 70s to the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

The summertime high is expected to continue expanding over the
Ozarks. This pattern will bring even hotter temperatures, although
dew points may have a shot to mix down a bit during the afternoon.

The heat headlines could possibly come to an end by Wednesday, as
some relief will occur with the passage of a cold front. This
frontal system will also trigger showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The summertime high then refocuses over the Great Basin through
the end of the week. This will mitigate temperatures from reaching
the 90s Thursday through the weekend. This pattern will also bring
some precipitation chances to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Monday evening with
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Widely scattered
thunderstorms will be possible late Monday afternoon across south
central Missouri. We have maintained a PROB30 group to cover this
threat at Branson. Winds will remain light through the TAF period.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ056>058-068>071-079>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening FOR MOZ055-066-067-077-078-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 270533
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1233 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Upper level ridge centered over the Texas Panhandle continues to
be the dominant weather feature during this forecast period. This
ridge is keeping a very warm and humid air mass over the region.
In addition...mid-level waves transiting the northern periphery of
this ridge are continuing to set off convection...primarily
during the afternoon and evening hours. This convection has
developed over the eastern sections of the CWA this afternoon
along old outflow boundaries.

With the ridge expected to remain in place through the the first
part of the week...expect afternoon high temperatures to range from
the low to mid 90s with heat index values in the 103 to 107
degrees.  Will thus extend the heat advisory and excessive heat
warnings into Monday. McDonald county in far southwest Missouri has
consistently been hitting heat index criteria...so will add to
excessive heat warning.

Convection remains a little tricky.  Instability is definitely present
as well as numerous outflow boundaries from previous convection.
Believe any convection that does fire late this afternoon will be
confined primarily to northern and eastern sections and will last
into the evening hours. Any convection that does fire has the
potential to become severe with damaging winds being the primary
threat.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Warm and humid conditions should remain over the area through early
next week as the upper level ridge remains firmly in place over the
Southern Plains.  The ridge is still forecast to amplify in response
to an approaching short wave now entering the Pacific Northwest. As
this occurs...the convective chances will decrease as the storm
track is pushed northward.

By late Tuesday...the upper level wave moving across the Northern
Plains will begin to deamplify the ridge and push a surface cold
front southward into the region.  While precipitation chances will
increase as the front approaches...do not expect more than slight
chance to chance PoPs at this time.

As the upper level wave transits the Great Lakes on Thursday...it
will cause the upper ridge to amplify and retrograde to the west
taking up a position over the Great Basin by Friday.  As this
happens...a more northwesterly flow develops which will bring a
slightly cooler and drier air mass to the region. Highs on
Thursday through the end of the forecast period should be in the
mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Monday evening with
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Widely scattered
thunderstorms will be possible late Monday afternoon across south
central Missouri. We have maintained a PROB30 group to cover this
threat at Branson. Winds will remain light through the TAF period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ055>058-067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening FOR MOZ066-077-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 270533
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1233 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Upper level ridge centered over the Texas Panhandle continues to
be the dominant weather feature during this forecast period. This
ridge is keeping a very warm and humid air mass over the region.
In addition...mid-level waves transiting the northern periphery of
this ridge are continuing to set off convection...primarily
during the afternoon and evening hours. This convection has
developed over the eastern sections of the CWA this afternoon
along old outflow boundaries.

With the ridge expected to remain in place through the the first
part of the week...expect afternoon high temperatures to range from
the low to mid 90s with heat index values in the 103 to 107
degrees.  Will thus extend the heat advisory and excessive heat
warnings into Monday. McDonald county in far southwest Missouri has
consistently been hitting heat index criteria...so will add to
excessive heat warning.

Convection remains a little tricky.  Instability is definitely present
as well as numerous outflow boundaries from previous convection.
Believe any convection that does fire late this afternoon will be
confined primarily to northern and eastern sections and will last
into the evening hours. Any convection that does fire has the
potential to become severe with damaging winds being the primary
threat.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Warm and humid conditions should remain over the area through early
next week as the upper level ridge remains firmly in place over the
Southern Plains.  The ridge is still forecast to amplify in response
to an approaching short wave now entering the Pacific Northwest. As
this occurs...the convective chances will decrease as the storm
track is pushed northward.

By late Tuesday...the upper level wave moving across the Northern
Plains will begin to deamplify the ridge and push a surface cold
front southward into the region.  While precipitation chances will
increase as the front approaches...do not expect more than slight
chance to chance PoPs at this time.

As the upper level wave transits the Great Lakes on Thursday...it
will cause the upper ridge to amplify and retrograde to the west
taking up a position over the Great Basin by Friday.  As this
happens...a more northwesterly flow develops which will bring a
slightly cooler and drier air mass to the region. Highs on
Thursday through the end of the forecast period should be in the
mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Monday evening with
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Widely scattered
thunderstorms will be possible late Monday afternoon across south
central Missouri. We have maintained a PROB30 group to cover this
threat at Branson. Winds will remain light through the TAF period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ055>058-067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening FOR MOZ066-077-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KEAX 270503
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1203 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1108 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Added mention of patchy fog potential across much of northern MO late
tonight/early tomorrow morning. Light to calm winds, low dewpoint
depressions, and recent rains indicate a possibility for some fog to
develop. Otherwise, rest of the forecast looks to remain on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 431 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Tonight - Tuesday:

In the very short term, will monitor the band of cu over the
southern CWA where the remnants of an old outflow boundary lie.
Moisture is pooled along this boundary and can`t rule out an
isolated storm popping up between now and sunset. Otherwise, looks
like we`re done with the pesky nocturnal convection for the next
couple days. Water vapor satellite imagery shows the Southern
Rockies/Southern Plains upper high/ridge axis is nudging/building
northward with the corresponding plume of subtropical mid/high level
moisture swirling more into NE and heading towards southern SD and
IA vs northern KS/southern IA/northern MO. In addition, don`t see
any discernible frontal boundaries to help initiate new convection.

So, a dry forecast and lack of convective debris and associated
outflow boundaries leaves the door open for the the oppressive heat
and humidity to spread across the entire CWA on Monday. Did notice
some slightly drier dewpoints in the upper 60s/lower 70s have worked
eastward into eastern KS and this appears it will sneak into the far
western CWA on Monday and probably again on Tuesday. To offset that
expect to see slightly warmer temperatures. With Monday marking the
4th consecutive day with heat indices reaching or forecast to reach
advisory criteria from the KC Metro area southward will upgrade that
region to an Excessive Heat Warning and issue a Heat Advisory for
the rest of the CWA. Will hold off on extending headlines into
Tuesday as it`s a bit more complicated owing to a cold front
approaching northwest MO in the afternoon and uncertainty as to how
far east these "drier" dewpoints will spread east.

Tuesday night - Wednesday:

Falling mid/upper level heights due to an upper trough tracking east
across the northern portions of the continental U.S. will allow a
cold front to press southward through the central U.S. While
scattered convection will likely develop along this cold front a
lack of upper level support will mean low level convergence will
need to be the main driver. Despite that, high precipitable water
values in excess of 2 inches tied to the front could result in some
locally heavy rainfall with the storms. Some lingering morning
convection over the southern CWA before the front pushes into
southern MO.

Thursday - Sunday:

The aforementioned northern U.S. upper trough is progged to rotate
into eastern Canada with the Plains upper high retrograding into the
Southern Plateau and intermountain region. This will result in
northwest flow with its typical embedded weak shortwaves/vorticity
maxima to drive one nuts. Timing/location of these features this far
out is fruitless so for now slight chance and low chance PoPs
(mainly for the northern CWA) is the preferred way to play it. On
the plus side this period should see more seasonal temperatures with
highs in the mid/upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

With the exception of STJ, VFR conditions are likely to continue to
prevail throughout the TAF period. Conditions appear to be favorable
for fog development in and around STJ in the pre-dawn to dawn hours
as winds will be light to calm and low-level moisture will be
abundant with mostly clear skies overhead. Southerly winds will
dominate tomorrow with some mid- to upper-level clouds streaming
through, and perhaps a fair-weather CU field developing in the
afternoon, diminishing after dark.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for KSZ025-102.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for KSZ057-
     060-103>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-030>033-038>040-044>046.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for MOZ028-
     029-037-043-053-054.

&&

$$

UPDATE...lg
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...lg




000
FXUS63 KEAX 270429
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1129 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1108 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Added mention of patchy fog potential across much of northern MO late
tonight/early tomorrow morning. Light to calm winds, low dewpoint
depressions, and recent rains indicate a possibility for some fog to
develop. Otherwise, rest of the forecast looks to remain on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 431 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Tonight - Tuesday:

In the very short term, will monitor the band of cu over the
southern CWA where the remnants of an old outflow boundary lie.
Moisture is pooled along this boundary and can`t rule out an
isolated storm popping up between now and sunset. Otherwise, looks
like we`re done with the pesky nocturnal convection for the next
couple days. Water vapor satellite imagery shows the Southern
Rockies/Southern Plains upper high/ridge axis is nudging/building
northward with the corresponding plume of subtropical mid/high level
moisture swirling more into NE and heading towards southern SD and
IA vs northern KS/southern IA/northern MO. In addition, don`t see
any discernible frontal boundaries to help initiate new convection.

So, a dry forecast and lack of convective debris and associated
outflow boundaries leaves the door open for the the oppressive heat
and humidity to spread across the entire CWA on Monday. Did notice
some slightly drier dewpoints in the upper 60s/lower 70s have worked
eastward into eastern KS and this appears it will sneak into the far
western CWA on Monday and probably again on Tuesday. To offset that
expect to see slightly warmer temperatures. With Monday marking the
4th consecutive day with heat indices reaching or forecast to reach
advisory criteria from the KC Metro area southward will upgrade that
region to an Excessive Heat Warning and issue a Heat Advisory for
the rest of the CWA. Will hold off on extending headlines into
Tuesday as it`s a bit more complicated owing to a cold front
approaching northwest MO in the afternoon and uncertainty as to how
far east these "drier" dewpoints will spread east.

Tuesday night - Wednesday:

Falling mid/upper level heights due to an upper trough tracking east
across the northern portions of the continental U.S. will allow a
cold front to press southward through the central U.S. While
scattered convection will likely develop along this cold front a
lack of upper level support will mean low level convergence will
need to be the main driver. Despite that, high precipitable water
values in excess of 2 inches tied to the front could result in some
locally heavy rainfall with the storms. Some lingering morning
convection over the southern CWA before the front pushes into
southern MO.

Thursday - Sunday:

The aforementioned northern U.S. upper trough is progged to rotate
into eastern Canada with the Plains upper high retrograding into the
Southern Plateau and intermountain region. This will result in
northwest flow with its typical embedded weak shortwaves/vorticity
maxima to drive one nuts. Timing/location of these features this far
out is fruitless so for now slight chance and low chance PoPs
(mainly for the northern CWA) is the preferred way to play it. On
the plus side this period should see more seasonal temperatures with
highs in the mid/upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR conditions to prevail throughout the TAF period for at least MCI,
MKC, and IXD. STJ is a little more questionable given that the light
winds tonight and recent rain could create some drops in visbys in
the terminal area. Otherwise, southerly winds will also prevail
throughout the TAF period with some mid- to upper-level clouds
streaming through and perhaps a fair-weather CU field Monday
afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for KSZ025-102.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for KSZ057-
     060-103>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-030>033-038>040-044>046.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for MOZ028-
     029-037-043-053-054.

&&

$$

UPDATE...lg
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...lg



000
FXUS63 KEAX 270429
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1129 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1108 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Added mention of patchy fog potential across much of northern MO late
tonight/early tomorrow morning. Light to calm winds, low dewpoint
depressions, and recent rains indicate a possibility for some fog to
develop. Otherwise, rest of the forecast looks to remain on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 431 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Tonight - Tuesday:

In the very short term, will monitor the band of cu over the
southern CWA where the remnants of an old outflow boundary lie.
Moisture is pooled along this boundary and can`t rule out an
isolated storm popping up between now and sunset. Otherwise, looks
like we`re done with the pesky nocturnal convection for the next
couple days. Water vapor satellite imagery shows the Southern
Rockies/Southern Plains upper high/ridge axis is nudging/building
northward with the corresponding plume of subtropical mid/high level
moisture swirling more into NE and heading towards southern SD and
IA vs northern KS/southern IA/northern MO. In addition, don`t see
any discernible frontal boundaries to help initiate new convection.

So, a dry forecast and lack of convective debris and associated
outflow boundaries leaves the door open for the the oppressive heat
and humidity to spread across the entire CWA on Monday. Did notice
some slightly drier dewpoints in the upper 60s/lower 70s have worked
eastward into eastern KS and this appears it will sneak into the far
western CWA on Monday and probably again on Tuesday. To offset that
expect to see slightly warmer temperatures. With Monday marking the
4th consecutive day with heat indices reaching or forecast to reach
advisory criteria from the KC Metro area southward will upgrade that
region to an Excessive Heat Warning and issue a Heat Advisory for
the rest of the CWA. Will hold off on extending headlines into
Tuesday as it`s a bit more complicated owing to a cold front
approaching northwest MO in the afternoon and uncertainty as to how
far east these "drier" dewpoints will spread east.

Tuesday night - Wednesday:

Falling mid/upper level heights due to an upper trough tracking east
across the northern portions of the continental U.S. will allow a
cold front to press southward through the central U.S. While
scattered convection will likely develop along this cold front a
lack of upper level support will mean low level convergence will
need to be the main driver. Despite that, high precipitable water
values in excess of 2 inches tied to the front could result in some
locally heavy rainfall with the storms. Some lingering morning
convection over the southern CWA before the front pushes into
southern MO.

Thursday - Sunday:

The aforementioned northern U.S. upper trough is progged to rotate
into eastern Canada with the Plains upper high retrograding into the
Southern Plateau and intermountain region. This will result in
northwest flow with its typical embedded weak shortwaves/vorticity
maxima to drive one nuts. Timing/location of these features this far
out is fruitless so for now slight chance and low chance PoPs
(mainly for the northern CWA) is the preferred way to play it. On
the plus side this period should see more seasonal temperatures with
highs in the mid/upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR conditions to prevail throughout the TAF period for at least MCI,
MKC, and IXD. STJ is a little more questionable given that the light
winds tonight and recent rain could create some drops in visbys in
the terminal area. Otherwise, southerly winds will also prevail
throughout the TAF period with some mid- to upper-level clouds
streaming through and perhaps a fair-weather CU field Monday
afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for KSZ025-102.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for KSZ057-
     060-103>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-030>033-038>040-044>046.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for MOZ028-
     029-037-043-053-054.

&&

$$

UPDATE...lg
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...lg



000
FXUS63 KEAX 270429
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1129 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1108 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Added mention of patchy fog potential across much of northern MO late
tonight/early tomorrow morning. Light to calm winds, low dewpoint
depressions, and recent rains indicate a possibility for some fog to
develop. Otherwise, rest of the forecast looks to remain on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 431 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Tonight - Tuesday:

In the very short term, will monitor the band of cu over the
southern CWA where the remnants of an old outflow boundary lie.
Moisture is pooled along this boundary and can`t rule out an
isolated storm popping up between now and sunset. Otherwise, looks
like we`re done with the pesky nocturnal convection for the next
couple days. Water vapor satellite imagery shows the Southern
Rockies/Southern Plains upper high/ridge axis is nudging/building
northward with the corresponding plume of subtropical mid/high level
moisture swirling more into NE and heading towards southern SD and
IA vs northern KS/southern IA/northern MO. In addition, don`t see
any discernible frontal boundaries to help initiate new convection.

So, a dry forecast and lack of convective debris and associated
outflow boundaries leaves the door open for the the oppressive heat
and humidity to spread across the entire CWA on Monday. Did notice
some slightly drier dewpoints in the upper 60s/lower 70s have worked
eastward into eastern KS and this appears it will sneak into the far
western CWA on Monday and probably again on Tuesday. To offset that
expect to see slightly warmer temperatures. With Monday marking the
4th consecutive day with heat indices reaching or forecast to reach
advisory criteria from the KC Metro area southward will upgrade that
region to an Excessive Heat Warning and issue a Heat Advisory for
the rest of the CWA. Will hold off on extending headlines into
Tuesday as it`s a bit more complicated owing to a cold front
approaching northwest MO in the afternoon and uncertainty as to how
far east these "drier" dewpoints will spread east.

Tuesday night - Wednesday:

Falling mid/upper level heights due to an upper trough tracking east
across the northern portions of the continental U.S. will allow a
cold front to press southward through the central U.S. While
scattered convection will likely develop along this cold front a
lack of upper level support will mean low level convergence will
need to be the main driver. Despite that, high precipitable water
values in excess of 2 inches tied to the front could result in some
locally heavy rainfall with the storms. Some lingering morning
convection over the southern CWA before the front pushes into
southern MO.

Thursday - Sunday:

The aforementioned northern U.S. upper trough is progged to rotate
into eastern Canada with the Plains upper high retrograding into the
Southern Plateau and intermountain region. This will result in
northwest flow with its typical embedded weak shortwaves/vorticity
maxima to drive one nuts. Timing/location of these features this far
out is fruitless so for now slight chance and low chance PoPs
(mainly for the northern CWA) is the preferred way to play it. On
the plus side this period should see more seasonal temperatures with
highs in the mid/upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR conditions to prevail throughout the TAF period for at least MCI,
MKC, and IXD. STJ is a little more questionable given that the light
winds tonight and recent rain could create some drops in visbys in
the terminal area. Otherwise, southerly winds will also prevail
throughout the TAF period with some mid- to upper-level clouds
streaming through and perhaps a fair-weather CU field Monday
afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for KSZ025-102.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for KSZ057-
     060-103>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-030>033-038>040-044>046.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for MOZ028-
     029-037-043-053-054.

&&

$$

UPDATE...lg
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...lg



000
FXUS63 KEAX 270429
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1129 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1108 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Added mention of patchy fog potential across much of northern MO late
tonight/early tomorrow morning. Light to calm winds, low dewpoint
depressions, and recent rains indicate a possibility for some fog to
develop. Otherwise, rest of the forecast looks to remain on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 431 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Tonight - Tuesday:

In the very short term, will monitor the band of cu over the
southern CWA where the remnants of an old outflow boundary lie.
Moisture is pooled along this boundary and can`t rule out an
isolated storm popping up between now and sunset. Otherwise, looks
like we`re done with the pesky nocturnal convection for the next
couple days. Water vapor satellite imagery shows the Southern
Rockies/Southern Plains upper high/ridge axis is nudging/building
northward with the corresponding plume of subtropical mid/high level
moisture swirling more into NE and heading towards southern SD and
IA vs northern KS/southern IA/northern MO. In addition, don`t see
any discernible frontal boundaries to help initiate new convection.

So, a dry forecast and lack of convective debris and associated
outflow boundaries leaves the door open for the the oppressive heat
and humidity to spread across the entire CWA on Monday. Did notice
some slightly drier dewpoints in the upper 60s/lower 70s have worked
eastward into eastern KS and this appears it will sneak into the far
western CWA on Monday and probably again on Tuesday. To offset that
expect to see slightly warmer temperatures. With Monday marking the
4th consecutive day with heat indices reaching or forecast to reach
advisory criteria from the KC Metro area southward will upgrade that
region to an Excessive Heat Warning and issue a Heat Advisory for
the rest of the CWA. Will hold off on extending headlines into
Tuesday as it`s a bit more complicated owing to a cold front
approaching northwest MO in the afternoon and uncertainty as to how
far east these "drier" dewpoints will spread east.

Tuesday night - Wednesday:

Falling mid/upper level heights due to an upper trough tracking east
across the northern portions of the continental U.S. will allow a
cold front to press southward through the central U.S. While
scattered convection will likely develop along this cold front a
lack of upper level support will mean low level convergence will
need to be the main driver. Despite that, high precipitable water
values in excess of 2 inches tied to the front could result in some
locally heavy rainfall with the storms. Some lingering morning
convection over the southern CWA before the front pushes into
southern MO.

Thursday - Sunday:

The aforementioned northern U.S. upper trough is progged to rotate
into eastern Canada with the Plains upper high retrograding into the
Southern Plateau and intermountain region. This will result in
northwest flow with its typical embedded weak shortwaves/vorticity
maxima to drive one nuts. Timing/location of these features this far
out is fruitless so for now slight chance and low chance PoPs
(mainly for the northern CWA) is the preferred way to play it. On
the plus side this period should see more seasonal temperatures with
highs in the mid/upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR conditions to prevail throughout the TAF period for at least MCI,
MKC, and IXD. STJ is a little more questionable given that the light
winds tonight and recent rain could create some drops in visbys in
the terminal area. Otherwise, southerly winds will also prevail
throughout the TAF period with some mid- to upper-level clouds
streaming through and perhaps a fair-weather CU field Monday
afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for KSZ025-102.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for KSZ057-
     060-103>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-030>033-038>040-044>046.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for MOZ028-
     029-037-043-053-054.

&&

$$

UPDATE...lg
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...lg



000
FXUS63 KEAX 270429
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1129 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1108 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Added mention of patchy fog potential across much of northern MO late
tonight/early tomorrow morning. Light to calm winds, low dewpoint
depressions, and recent rains indicate a possibility for some fog to
develop. Otherwise, rest of the forecast looks to remain on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 431 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Tonight - Tuesday:

In the very short term, will monitor the band of cu over the
southern CWA where the remnants of an old outflow boundary lie.
Moisture is pooled along this boundary and can`t rule out an
isolated storm popping up between now and sunset. Otherwise, looks
like we`re done with the pesky nocturnal convection for the next
couple days. Water vapor satellite imagery shows the Southern
Rockies/Southern Plains upper high/ridge axis is nudging/building
northward with the corresponding plume of subtropical mid/high level
moisture swirling more into NE and heading towards southern SD and
IA vs northern KS/southern IA/northern MO. In addition, don`t see
any discernible frontal boundaries to help initiate new convection.

So, a dry forecast and lack of convective debris and associated
outflow boundaries leaves the door open for the the oppressive heat
and humidity to spread across the entire CWA on Monday. Did notice
some slightly drier dewpoints in the upper 60s/lower 70s have worked
eastward into eastern KS and this appears it will sneak into the far
western CWA on Monday and probably again on Tuesday. To offset that
expect to see slightly warmer temperatures. With Monday marking the
4th consecutive day with heat indices reaching or forecast to reach
advisory criteria from the KC Metro area southward will upgrade that
region to an Excessive Heat Warning and issue a Heat Advisory for
the rest of the CWA. Will hold off on extending headlines into
Tuesday as it`s a bit more complicated owing to a cold front
approaching northwest MO in the afternoon and uncertainty as to how
far east these "drier" dewpoints will spread east.

Tuesday night - Wednesday:

Falling mid/upper level heights due to an upper trough tracking east
across the northern portions of the continental U.S. will allow a
cold front to press southward through the central U.S. While
scattered convection will likely develop along this cold front a
lack of upper level support will mean low level convergence will
need to be the main driver. Despite that, high precipitable water
values in excess of 2 inches tied to the front could result in some
locally heavy rainfall with the storms. Some lingering morning
convection over the southern CWA before the front pushes into
southern MO.

Thursday - Sunday:

The aforementioned northern U.S. upper trough is progged to rotate
into eastern Canada with the Plains upper high retrograding into the
Southern Plateau and intermountain region. This will result in
northwest flow with its typical embedded weak shortwaves/vorticity
maxima to drive one nuts. Timing/location of these features this far
out is fruitless so for now slight chance and low chance PoPs
(mainly for the northern CWA) is the preferred way to play it. On
the plus side this period should see more seasonal temperatures with
highs in the mid/upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR conditions to prevail throughout the TAF period for at least MCI,
MKC, and IXD. STJ is a little more questionable given that the light
winds tonight and recent rain could create some drops in visbys in
the terminal area. Otherwise, southerly winds will also prevail
throughout the TAF period with some mid- to upper-level clouds
streaming through and perhaps a fair-weather CU field Monday
afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for KSZ025-102.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for KSZ057-
     060-103>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-030>033-038>040-044>046.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for MOZ028-
     029-037-043-053-054.

&&

$$

UPDATE...lg
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...lg



000
FXUS63 KLSX 270416
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1116 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  LATEST HRRR SHOW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI.  THE RAP SHOWS THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
AREA BY 06Z.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDICES OF
105 TO 110+ BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT
ADVISORY OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI AND HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA.  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO SLIGHT CHANCES BOTH DAYS.
BECAUSE OF THIS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE
90S AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 20S.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 850MB ON MONDAY AND CLOSE TO 800MB ON
TUESDAY.  WITH DEWPOINTS WELL IN THE 70S GIVEN THE RECENT
RAINFALL...THIS WILL RESULT IN THE HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 ON MONDAY
AND NEAR 110 ON TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL DOWN BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY.  FORCING WILL NOT BE GREAT ALONG THE FRONT,
BUT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)

STILL EXPECT THIS TO BE A COOLER PERIOD AS THE POLAR FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA
BECAUSE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BE BECAUSE OF A BUILDING UPPER HIGH IN THE SOUTHWEST AND A
TROUGH IN THE EAST.  WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH AGREE ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN CHANGE, THEY DIFFER ON JUST HOW FAST THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND WHETHER A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION NEXT SUNDAY.  THE GFS SHOWS DEPICTS SOME LIGHT QPF WITH
THIS FRONT WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.  WILL ALSO GO WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES GIVEN 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
TEENS CELCIUS.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

ISOLATE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP...NORTHEAST AND TO THE SOUTH OF STL. THIS MOST LIKELY FROM
SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE 850 MB
WIND. WIND BEGINS TO BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO THE FLOW BY 06Z AND
FINISHED THE PROCESS BY 12Z. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
CONTINUED SPOTTER DEVELOPMENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS YET. THE LATEST
HRRR-CR AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO AND PLACEMENT PRETTY WELL.
PRIMARY MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED ACTIVITY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH VERY LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.
WITH LIGHT WIND AND RECENT RAIN AT MOST LOCATIONS WILL GO WITH A
TEMPO FOR A COUPLE HOURS OF MORING FOG.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE AREA. DEPENDING ON LOCATION...MAY
CONTINUE THE VCTS A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEYOND 06Z. A LITTLE
CONCERNED WITH POSSIBLE FOG IN THE MORNING GIVEN RECENT RAIN. AS
USUAL THE MET GUIDANCE HITS CIG/VIS HARD WITH THE MAV VFR. WILL GO
AHEAD AND THROW IN A TEMPO FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS MONDAY MORNING.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR AUDRAIN
     MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON
     MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-MARION MO-MONROE
     MO-MONTGOMERY MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-SHELBY MO-ST.
     CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
     STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-
     COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-OSAGE MO.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ADAMS IL-
     BOND IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-
     JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-
     MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON
     IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 270416
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1116 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  LATEST HRRR SHOW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI.  THE RAP SHOWS THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
AREA BY 06Z.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDICES OF
105 TO 110+ BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT
ADVISORY OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI AND HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA.  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO SLIGHT CHANCES BOTH DAYS.
BECAUSE OF THIS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE
90S AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 20S.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 850MB ON MONDAY AND CLOSE TO 800MB ON
TUESDAY.  WITH DEWPOINTS WELL IN THE 70S GIVEN THE RECENT
RAINFALL...THIS WILL RESULT IN THE HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 ON MONDAY
AND NEAR 110 ON TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL DOWN BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY.  FORCING WILL NOT BE GREAT ALONG THE FRONT,
BUT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)

STILL EXPECT THIS TO BE A COOLER PERIOD AS THE POLAR FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA
BECAUSE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BE BECAUSE OF A BUILDING UPPER HIGH IN THE SOUTHWEST AND A
TROUGH IN THE EAST.  WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH AGREE ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN CHANGE, THEY DIFFER ON JUST HOW FAST THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND WHETHER A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION NEXT SUNDAY.  THE GFS SHOWS DEPICTS SOME LIGHT QPF WITH
THIS FRONT WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.  WILL ALSO GO WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES GIVEN 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
TEENS CELCIUS.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

ISOLATE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP...NORTHEAST AND TO THE SOUTH OF STL. THIS MOST LIKELY FROM
SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE 850 MB
WIND. WIND BEGINS TO BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO THE FLOW BY 06Z AND
FINISHED THE PROCESS BY 12Z. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
CONTINUED SPOTTER DEVELOPMENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS YET. THE LATEST
HRRR-CR AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO AND PLACEMENT PRETTY WELL.
PRIMARY MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED ACTIVITY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH VERY LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.
WITH LIGHT WIND AND RECENT RAIN AT MOST LOCATIONS WILL GO WITH A
TEMPO FOR A COUPLE HOURS OF MORING FOG.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE AREA. DEPENDING ON LOCATION...MAY
CONTINUE THE VCTS A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEYOND 06Z. A LITTLE
CONCERNED WITH POSSIBLE FOG IN THE MORNING GIVEN RECENT RAIN. AS
USUAL THE MET GUIDANCE HITS CIG/VIS HARD WITH THE MAV VFR. WILL GO
AHEAD AND THROW IN A TEMPO FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS MONDAY MORNING.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR AUDRAIN
     MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON
     MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-MARION MO-MONROE
     MO-MONTGOMERY MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-SHELBY MO-ST.
     CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
     STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-
     COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-OSAGE MO.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ADAMS IL-
     BOND IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-
     JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-
     MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON
     IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 270416
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1116 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  LATEST HRRR SHOW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI.  THE RAP SHOWS THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
AREA BY 06Z.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDICES OF
105 TO 110+ BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT
ADVISORY OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI AND HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA.  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO SLIGHT CHANCES BOTH DAYS.
BECAUSE OF THIS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE
90S AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 20S.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 850MB ON MONDAY AND CLOSE TO 800MB ON
TUESDAY.  WITH DEWPOINTS WELL IN THE 70S GIVEN THE RECENT
RAINFALL...THIS WILL RESULT IN THE HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 ON MONDAY
AND NEAR 110 ON TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL DOWN BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY.  FORCING WILL NOT BE GREAT ALONG THE FRONT,
BUT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)

STILL EXPECT THIS TO BE A COOLER PERIOD AS THE POLAR FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA
BECAUSE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BE BECAUSE OF A BUILDING UPPER HIGH IN THE SOUTHWEST AND A
TROUGH IN THE EAST.  WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH AGREE ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN CHANGE, THEY DIFFER ON JUST HOW FAST THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND WHETHER A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION NEXT SUNDAY.  THE GFS SHOWS DEPICTS SOME LIGHT QPF WITH
THIS FRONT WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.  WILL ALSO GO WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES GIVEN 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
TEENS CELCIUS.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

ISOLATE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP...NORTHEAST AND TO THE SOUTH OF STL. THIS MOST LIKELY FROM
SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE 850 MB
WIND. WIND BEGINS TO BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO THE FLOW BY 06Z AND
FINISHED THE PROCESS BY 12Z. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
CONTINUED SPOTTER DEVELOPMENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS YET. THE LATEST
HRRR-CR AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO AND PLACEMENT PRETTY WELL.
PRIMARY MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED ACTIVITY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH VERY LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.
WITH LIGHT WIND AND RECENT RAIN AT MOST LOCATIONS WILL GO WITH A
TEMPO FOR A COUPLE HOURS OF MORING FOG.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE AREA. DEPENDING ON LOCATION...MAY
CONTINUE THE VCTS A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEYOND 06Z. A LITTLE
CONCERNED WITH POSSIBLE FOG IN THE MORNING GIVEN RECENT RAIN. AS
USUAL THE MET GUIDANCE HITS CIG/VIS HARD WITH THE MAV VFR. WILL GO
AHEAD AND THROW IN A TEMPO FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS MONDAY MORNING.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR AUDRAIN
     MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON
     MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-MARION MO-MONROE
     MO-MONTGOMERY MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-SHELBY MO-ST.
     CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
     STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-
     COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-OSAGE MO.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ADAMS IL-
     BOND IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-
     JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-
     MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON
     IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 270416
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1116 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  LATEST HRRR SHOW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI.  THE RAP SHOWS THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
AREA BY 06Z.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDICES OF
105 TO 110+ BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT
ADVISORY OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI AND HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA.  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO SLIGHT CHANCES BOTH DAYS.
BECAUSE OF THIS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE
90S AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 20S.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 850MB ON MONDAY AND CLOSE TO 800MB ON
TUESDAY.  WITH DEWPOINTS WELL IN THE 70S GIVEN THE RECENT
RAINFALL...THIS WILL RESULT IN THE HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 ON MONDAY
AND NEAR 110 ON TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL DOWN BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY.  FORCING WILL NOT BE GREAT ALONG THE FRONT,
BUT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)

STILL EXPECT THIS TO BE A COOLER PERIOD AS THE POLAR FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA
BECAUSE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BE BECAUSE OF A BUILDING UPPER HIGH IN THE SOUTHWEST AND A
TROUGH IN THE EAST.  WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH AGREE ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN CHANGE, THEY DIFFER ON JUST HOW FAST THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND WHETHER A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION NEXT SUNDAY.  THE GFS SHOWS DEPICTS SOME LIGHT QPF WITH
THIS FRONT WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.  WILL ALSO GO WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES GIVEN 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
TEENS CELCIUS.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

ISOLATE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP...NORTHEAST AND TO THE SOUTH OF STL. THIS MOST LIKELY FROM
SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE 850 MB
WIND. WIND BEGINS TO BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO THE FLOW BY 06Z AND
FINISHED THE PROCESS BY 12Z. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
CONTINUED SPOTTER DEVELOPMENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS YET. THE LATEST
HRRR-CR AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO AND PLACEMENT PRETTY WELL.
PRIMARY MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED ACTIVITY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH VERY LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.
WITH LIGHT WIND AND RECENT RAIN AT MOST LOCATIONS WILL GO WITH A
TEMPO FOR A COUPLE HOURS OF MORING FOG.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE AREA. DEPENDING ON LOCATION...MAY
CONTINUE THE VCTS A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEYOND 06Z. A LITTLE
CONCERNED WITH POSSIBLE FOG IN THE MORNING GIVEN RECENT RAIN. AS
USUAL THE MET GUIDANCE HITS CIG/VIS HARD WITH THE MAV VFR. WILL GO
AHEAD AND THROW IN A TEMPO FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS MONDAY MORNING.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR AUDRAIN
     MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON
     MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-MARION MO-MONROE
     MO-MONTGOMERY MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-SHELBY MO-ST.
     CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
     STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-
     COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-OSAGE MO.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ADAMS IL-
     BOND IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-
     JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-
     MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON
     IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 270416
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1116 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  LATEST HRRR SHOW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI.  THE RAP SHOWS THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
AREA BY 06Z.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDICES OF
105 TO 110+ BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT
ADVISORY OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI AND HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA.  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO SLIGHT CHANCES BOTH DAYS.
BECAUSE OF THIS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE
90S AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 20S.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 850MB ON MONDAY AND CLOSE TO 800MB ON
TUESDAY.  WITH DEWPOINTS WELL IN THE 70S GIVEN THE RECENT
RAINFALL...THIS WILL RESULT IN THE HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 ON MONDAY
AND NEAR 110 ON TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL DOWN BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY.  FORCING WILL NOT BE GREAT ALONG THE FRONT,
BUT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)

STILL EXPECT THIS TO BE A COOLER PERIOD AS THE POLAR FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA
BECAUSE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BE BECAUSE OF A BUILDING UPPER HIGH IN THE SOUTHWEST AND A
TROUGH IN THE EAST.  WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH AGREE ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN CHANGE, THEY DIFFER ON JUST HOW FAST THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND WHETHER A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION NEXT SUNDAY.  THE GFS SHOWS DEPICTS SOME LIGHT QPF WITH
THIS FRONT WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.  WILL ALSO GO WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES GIVEN 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
TEENS CELCIUS.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

ISOLATE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP...NORTHEAST AND TO THE SOUTH OF STL. THIS MOST LIKELY FROM
SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE 850 MB
WIND. WIND BEGINS TO BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO THE FLOW BY 06Z AND
FINISHED THE PROCESS BY 12Z. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
CONTINUED SPOTTER DEVELOPMENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS YET. THE LATEST
HRRR-CR AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO AND PLACEMENT PRETTY WELL.
PRIMARY MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED ACTIVITY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH VERY LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.
WITH LIGHT WIND AND RECENT RAIN AT MOST LOCATIONS WILL GO WITH A
TEMPO FOR A COUPLE HOURS OF MORING FOG.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE AREA. DEPENDING ON LOCATION...MAY
CONTINUE THE VCTS A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEYOND 06Z. A LITTLE
CONCERNED WITH POSSIBLE FOG IN THE MORNING GIVEN RECENT RAIN. AS
USUAL THE MET GUIDANCE HITS CIG/VIS HARD WITH THE MAV VFR. WILL GO
AHEAD AND THROW IN A TEMPO FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS MONDAY MORNING.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR AUDRAIN
     MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON
     MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-MARION MO-MONROE
     MO-MONTGOMERY MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-SHELBY MO-ST.
     CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
     STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-
     COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-OSAGE MO.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ADAMS IL-
     BOND IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-
     JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-
     MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON
     IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 270416
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1116 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  LATEST HRRR SHOW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI.  THE RAP SHOWS THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
AREA BY 06Z.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDICES OF
105 TO 110+ BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT
ADVISORY OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI AND HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA.  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO SLIGHT CHANCES BOTH DAYS.
BECAUSE OF THIS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE
90S AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 20S.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 850MB ON MONDAY AND CLOSE TO 800MB ON
TUESDAY.  WITH DEWPOINTS WELL IN THE 70S GIVEN THE RECENT
RAINFALL...THIS WILL RESULT IN THE HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 ON MONDAY
AND NEAR 110 ON TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL DOWN BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY.  FORCING WILL NOT BE GREAT ALONG THE FRONT,
BUT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)

STILL EXPECT THIS TO BE A COOLER PERIOD AS THE POLAR FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA
BECAUSE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BE BECAUSE OF A BUILDING UPPER HIGH IN THE SOUTHWEST AND A
TROUGH IN THE EAST.  WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH AGREE ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN CHANGE, THEY DIFFER ON JUST HOW FAST THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND WHETHER A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION NEXT SUNDAY.  THE GFS SHOWS DEPICTS SOME LIGHT QPF WITH
THIS FRONT WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.  WILL ALSO GO WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES GIVEN 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
TEENS CELCIUS.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

ISOLATE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP...NORTHEAST AND TO THE SOUTH OF STL. THIS MOST LIKELY FROM
SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE 850 MB
WIND. WIND BEGINS TO BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO THE FLOW BY 06Z AND
FINISHED THE PROCESS BY 12Z. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
CONTINUED SPOTTER DEVELOPMENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS YET. THE LATEST
HRRR-CR AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO AND PLACEMENT PRETTY WELL.
PRIMARY MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED ACTIVITY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH VERY LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.
WITH LIGHT WIND AND RECENT RAIN AT MOST LOCATIONS WILL GO WITH A
TEMPO FOR A COUPLE HOURS OF MORING FOG.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE AREA. DEPENDING ON LOCATION...MAY
CONTINUE THE VCTS A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEYOND 06Z. A LITTLE
CONCERNED WITH POSSIBLE FOG IN THE MORNING GIVEN RECENT RAIN. AS
USUAL THE MET GUIDANCE HITS CIG/VIS HARD WITH THE MAV VFR. WILL GO
AHEAD AND THROW IN A TEMPO FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS MONDAY MORNING.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR AUDRAIN
     MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON
     MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-MARION MO-MONROE
     MO-MONTGOMERY MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-SHELBY MO-ST.
     CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
     STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-
     COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-OSAGE MO.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ADAMS IL-
     BOND IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-
     JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-
     MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON
     IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KEAX 262351
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
651 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 431 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Tonight - Tuesday:

In the very short term, will monitor the band of cu over the
southern CWA where the remnants of an old outflow boundary lie.
Moisture is pooled along this boundary and can`t rule out an
isolated storm popping up between now and sunset. Otherwise, looks
like we`re done with the pesky nocturnal convection for the next
couple days. Water vapor satellite imagery shows the Southern
Rockies/Southern Plains upper high/ridge axis is nudging/building
northward with the corresponding plume of subtropical mid/high level
moisture swirling more into NE and heading towards southern SD and
IA vs northern KS/southern IA/northern MO. In addition, don`t see
any discernible frontal boundaries to help initiate new convection.

So, a dry forecast and lack of convective debris and associated
outflow boundaries leaves the door open for the the oppressive heat
and humidity to spread across the entire CWA on Monday. Did notice
some slightly drier dewpoints in the upper 60s/lower 70s have worked
eastward into eastern KS and this appears it will sneak into the far
western CWA on Monday and probably again on Tuesday. To offset that
expect to see slightly warmer temperatures. With Monday marking the
4th consecutive day with heat indices reaching or forecast to reach
advisory criteria from the KC Metro area southward will upgrade that
region to an Excessive Heat Warning and issue a Heat Advisory for
the rest of the CWA. Will hold off on extending headlines into
Tuesday as it`s a bit more complicated owing to a cold front
approaching northwest MO in the afternoon and uncertainty as to how
far east these "drier" dewpoints will spread east.

Tuesday night - Wednesday:

Falling mid/upper level heights due to an upper trough tracking east
across the northern portions of the continental U.S. will allow a
cold front to press southward through the central U.S. While
scattered convection will likely develop along this cold front a
lack of upper level support will mean low level convergence will
need to be the main driver. Despite that, high precipitable water
values in excess of 2 inches tied to the front could result in some
locally heavy rainfall with the storms. Some lingering morning
convection over the southern CWA before the front pushes into
southern MO.

Thursday - Sunday:

The aforementioned northern U.S. upper trough is progged to rotate
into eastern Canada with the Plains upper high retrograding into the
Southern Plateau and intermountain region. This will result in
northwest flow with its typical embedded weak shortwaves/vorticity
maxima to drive one nuts. Timing/location of these features this far
out is fruitless so for now slight chance and low chance PoPs
(mainly for the northern CWA) is the preferred way to play it. On
the plus side this period should see more seasonal temperatures with
highs in the mid/upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR conditions to prevail throughout the TAF period for at least MCI,
MKC, and IXD. STJ is a little more questionable given that the light
winds tonight and recent rain could create some drops in visbys in
the terminal area. Otherwise, southerly winds will also prevail
throughout the TAF period with some mid- to upper-level clouds
streaming through and perhaps a fair-weather CU field Monday
afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for KSZ025-102.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for KSZ057-
     060-103>105.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-030>033-038>040-044>046.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for MOZ028-
     029-037-043-053-054.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ011-020-028-029-
     037-038-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...lg



000
FXUS63 KSGF 262344
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
644 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Upper level ridge centered over the Texas Panhandle continues to
be the dominant weather feature during this forecast period. This
ridge is keeping a very warm and humid air mass over the region.
In addition...mid-level waves transiting the northern periphery of
this ridge are continuing to set off convection...primarily
during the afternoon and evening hours. This convection has
developed over the eastern sections of the CWA this afternoon
along old outflow boundaries.

With the ridge expected to remain in place through the the first
part of the week...expect afternoon high temperatures to range from
the low to mid 90s with heat index values in the 103 to 107
degrees.  Will thus extend the heat advisory and excessive heat
warnings into Monday. McDonald county in far southwest Missouri has
consistently been hitting heat index criteria...so will add to
excessive heat warning.

Convection remains a little tricky.  Instability is definitely present
as well as numerous outflow boundaries from previous convection.
Believe any convection that does fire late this afternoon will be
confined primarily to northern and eastern sections and will last
into the evening hours. Any convection that does fire has the
potential to become severe with damaging winds being the primary
threat.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Warm and humid conditions should remain over the area through early
next week as the upper level ridge remains firmly in place over the
Southern Plains.  The ridge is still forecast to amplify in response
to an approaching short wave now entering the Pacific Northwest. As
this occurs...the convective chances will decrease as the storm
track is pushed northward.

By late Tuesday...the upper level wave moving across the Northern
Plains will begin to deamplify the ridge and push a surface cold
front southward into the region.  While precipitation chances will
increase as the front approaches...do not expect more than slight
chance to chance PoPs at this time.

As the upper level wave transits the Great Lakes on Thursday...it
will cause the upper ridge to amplify and retrograde to the west
taking up a position over the Great Basin by Friday.  As this
happens...a more northwesterly flow develops which will bring a
slightly cooler and drier air mass to the region. Highs on
Thursday through the end of the forecast period should be in the
mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through much of Monday with
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. There is a chance for some
widely scattered thunderstorms late Monday afternoon across
portions of southern Missouri. We have included a PROB30 group to
cover this threat at Branson and Springfield. Surface winds will
remain light through the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-067>071-
     078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.

     HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ066-
     077-088-093.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR MOZ066-
     077-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 262344
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
644 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Upper level ridge centered over the Texas Panhandle continues to
be the dominant weather feature during this forecast period. This
ridge is keeping a very warm and humid air mass over the region.
In addition...mid-level waves transiting the northern periphery of
this ridge are continuing to set off convection...primarily
during the afternoon and evening hours. This convection has
developed over the eastern sections of the CWA this afternoon
along old outflow boundaries.

With the ridge expected to remain in place through the the first
part of the week...expect afternoon high temperatures to range from
the low to mid 90s with heat index values in the 103 to 107
degrees.  Will thus extend the heat advisory and excessive heat
warnings into Monday. McDonald county in far southwest Missouri has
consistently been hitting heat index criteria...so will add to
excessive heat warning.

Convection remains a little tricky.  Instability is definitely present
as well as numerous outflow boundaries from previous convection.
Believe any convection that does fire late this afternoon will be
confined primarily to northern and eastern sections and will last
into the evening hours. Any convection that does fire has the
potential to become severe with damaging winds being the primary
threat.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Warm and humid conditions should remain over the area through early
next week as the upper level ridge remains firmly in place over the
Southern Plains.  The ridge is still forecast to amplify in response
to an approaching short wave now entering the Pacific Northwest. As
this occurs...the convective chances will decrease as the storm
track is pushed northward.

By late Tuesday...the upper level wave moving across the Northern
Plains will begin to deamplify the ridge and push a surface cold
front southward into the region.  While precipitation chances will
increase as the front approaches...do not expect more than slight
chance to chance PoPs at this time.

As the upper level wave transits the Great Lakes on Thursday...it
will cause the upper ridge to amplify and retrograde to the west
taking up a position over the Great Basin by Friday.  As this
happens...a more northwesterly flow develops which will bring a
slightly cooler and drier air mass to the region. Highs on
Thursday through the end of the forecast period should be in the
mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through much of Monday with
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. There is a chance for some
widely scattered thunderstorms late Monday afternoon across
portions of southern Missouri. We have included a PROB30 group to
cover this threat at Branson and Springfield. Surface winds will
remain light through the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-067>071-
     078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.

     HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ066-
     077-088-093.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR MOZ066-
     077-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KLSX 262231
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
531 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  LATEST HRRR SHOW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI.  THE RAP SHOWS THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
AREA BY 06Z.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDICES OF
105 TO 110+ BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT
ADVISORY OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI AND HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA.  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO SLIGHT CHANCES BOTH DAYS.
BECAUSE OF THIS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE
90S AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 20S.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 850MB ON MONDAY AND CLOSE TO 800MB ON
TUESDAY.  WITH DEWPOINTS WELL IN THE 70S GIVEN THE RECENT
RAINFALL...THIS WILL RESULT IN THE HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 ON MONDAY
AND NEAR 110 ON TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL DOWN BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY.  FORCING WILL NOT BE GREAT ALONG THE FRONT,
BUT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)

STILL EXPECT THIS TO BE A COOLER PERIOD AS THE POLAR FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA
BECAUSE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BE BECAUSE OF A BUILDING UPPER HIGH IN THE SOUTHWEST AND A
TROUGH IN THE EAST.  WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH AGREE ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN CHANGE, THEY DIFFER ON JUST HOW FAST THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND WHETHER A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION NEXT SUNDAY.  THE GFS SHOWS DEPICTS SOME LIGHT QPF WITH
THIS FRONT WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.  WILL ALSO GO WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES GIVEN 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
TEENS CELCIUS.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 519 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SCATTERED THUNDWERSTORMS FORMING PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO.
SHORT TERM MODELS WERE DEVELOPING THIS, ALTHOUTH COVERAGE IS MUCH
LESS THEN THEY INDICATE. WEAK BOUNDARIES AND DAYTIME HEATING IS
PROBABLY RESPONSIBLE. WEAK LIFT ALONG THE 305/310 FURFACE MAY GET
A FEW STORMS GOING EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT THE LIFT STARTS TO GO
AWAY AFTER 06Z SO IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO SE NEBRASKA MONDAY DEPRESSING
THE RIDGE A BIT WILL HELP FIRE STORMS BUT IT LOOKS LIKE INITIATION
WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST. JUST A MATTER IF ANYTHING
MOVES FAR ENOUGH SE INTO THE AREA. THAT IS LIKE THROWING DARTS SO
A DRY FORECAST WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR NOW.


SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING SO
WILL LIKELY CARRY A VCTS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. LOOKS LIKE STL
WILL BE FAR ENOUGTH SOUTH AND EAST OF ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS
WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MONDAY, AND THE LOCATION OF ANY ISOLATED
STORMS THAT DEVELOP IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT, SO WILL
CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST AND KEEP FINGERS CROSSED.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR AUDRAIN
     MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON
     MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-MARION MO-MONROE
     MO-MONTGOMERY MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-SHELBY MO-ST.
     CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
     STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-
     COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-OSAGE MO.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ADAMS IL-
     BOND IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-
     JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-
     MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON
     IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 262231
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
531 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  LATEST HRRR SHOW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI.  THE RAP SHOWS THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
AREA BY 06Z.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDICES OF
105 TO 110+ BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT
ADVISORY OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI AND HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA.  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO SLIGHT CHANCES BOTH DAYS.
BECAUSE OF THIS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE
90S AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 20S.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 850MB ON MONDAY AND CLOSE TO 800MB ON
TUESDAY.  WITH DEWPOINTS WELL IN THE 70S GIVEN THE RECENT
RAINFALL...THIS WILL RESULT IN THE HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 ON MONDAY
AND NEAR 110 ON TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL DOWN BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY.  FORCING WILL NOT BE GREAT ALONG THE FRONT,
BUT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)

STILL EXPECT THIS TO BE A COOLER PERIOD AS THE POLAR FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA
BECAUSE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BE BECAUSE OF A BUILDING UPPER HIGH IN THE SOUTHWEST AND A
TROUGH IN THE EAST.  WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH AGREE ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN CHANGE, THEY DIFFER ON JUST HOW FAST THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND WHETHER A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION NEXT SUNDAY.  THE GFS SHOWS DEPICTS SOME LIGHT QPF WITH
THIS FRONT WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.  WILL ALSO GO WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES GIVEN 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
TEENS CELCIUS.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 519 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SCATTERED THUNDWERSTORMS FORMING PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO.
SHORT TERM MODELS WERE DEVELOPING THIS, ALTHOUTH COVERAGE IS MUCH
LESS THEN THEY INDICATE. WEAK BOUNDARIES AND DAYTIME HEATING IS
PROBABLY RESPONSIBLE. WEAK LIFT ALONG THE 305/310 FURFACE MAY GET
A FEW STORMS GOING EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT THE LIFT STARTS TO GO
AWAY AFTER 06Z SO IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO SE NEBRASKA MONDAY DEPRESSING
THE RIDGE A BIT WILL HELP FIRE STORMS BUT IT LOOKS LIKE INITIATION
WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST. JUST A MATTER IF ANYTHING
MOVES FAR ENOUGH SE INTO THE AREA. THAT IS LIKE THROWING DARTS SO
A DRY FORECAST WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR NOW.


SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING SO
WILL LIKELY CARRY A VCTS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. LOOKS LIKE STL
WILL BE FAR ENOUGTH SOUTH AND EAST OF ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS
WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MONDAY, AND THE LOCATION OF ANY ISOLATED
STORMS THAT DEVELOP IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT, SO WILL
CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST AND KEEP FINGERS CROSSED.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR AUDRAIN
     MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON
     MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-MARION MO-MONROE
     MO-MONTGOMERY MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-SHELBY MO-ST.
     CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
     STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-
     COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-OSAGE MO.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ADAMS IL-
     BOND IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-
     JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-
     MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON
     IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KEAX 262131
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
431 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 431 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Tonight - Tuesday:

In the very short term, will monitor the band of cu over the
southern CWA where the remnants of an old outflow boundary lie.
Moisture is pooled along this boundary and can`t rule out an
isolated storm popping up between now and sunset. Otherwise, looks
like we`re done with the pesky nocturnal convection for the next
couple days. Water vapor satellite imagery shows the Southern
Rockies/Southern Plains upper high/ridge axis is nudging/building
northward with the corresponding plume of subtropical mid/high level
moisture swirling more into NE and heading towards southern SD and
IA vs northern KS/southern IA/northern MO. In addition, don`t see
any discernible frontal boundaries to help initiate new convection.

So, a dry forecast and lack of convective debris and associated
outflow boundaries leaves the door open for the the oppressive heat
and humidity to spread across the entire CWA on Monday. Did notice
some slightly drier dewpoints in the upper 60s/lower 70s have worked
eastward into eastern KS and this appears it will sneak into the far
western CWA on Monday and probably again on Tuesday. To offset that
expect to see slightly warmer temperatures. With Monday marking the
4th consecutive day with heat indices reaching or forecast to reach
advisory criteria from the KC Metro area southward will upgrade that
region to an Excessive Heat Warning and issue a Heat Advisory for
the rest of the CWA. Will hold off on extending headlines into
Tuesday as it`s a bit more complicated owing to a cold front
approaching northwest MO in the afternoon and uncertainty as to how
far east these "drier" dewpoints will spread east.

Tuesday night - Wednesday:

Falling mid/upper level heights due to an upper trough tracking east
across the northern portions of the continental U.S. will allow a
cold front to press southward through the central U.S. While
scattered convection will likely develop along this cold front a
lack of upper level support will mean low level convergence will
need to be the main driver. Despite that, high precipitable water
values in excess of 2 inches tied to the front could result in some
locally heavy rainfall with the storms. Some lingering morning
convection over the southern CWA before the front pushes into
southern MO.

Thursday - Sunday:

The aforementioned northern U.S. upper trough is progged to rotate
into eastern Canada with the Plains upper high retrograding into the
Southern Plateau and intermountain region. This will result in
northwest flow with its typical embedded weak shortwaves/vorticity
maxima to drive one nuts. Timing/location of these features this far
out is fruitless so for now slight chance and low chance PoPs
(mainly for the northern CWA) is the preferred way to play it. On
the plus side this period should see more seasonal temperatures with
highs in the mid/upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Weak outflow boundary over west central MO should wash out this
afternoon so looking at a dry forecast with VFR conditions.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for KSZ025-102.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for KSZ057-
     060-103>105.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-030>033-038>040-044>046.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for MOZ028-
     029-037-043-053-054.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ011-020-028-029-
     037-038-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KEAX 262131
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
431 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 431 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Tonight - Tuesday:

In the very short term, will monitor the band of cu over the
southern CWA where the remnants of an old outflow boundary lie.
Moisture is pooled along this boundary and can`t rule out an
isolated storm popping up between now and sunset. Otherwise, looks
like we`re done with the pesky nocturnal convection for the next
couple days. Water vapor satellite imagery shows the Southern
Rockies/Southern Plains upper high/ridge axis is nudging/building
northward with the corresponding plume of subtropical mid/high level
moisture swirling more into NE and heading towards southern SD and
IA vs northern KS/southern IA/northern MO. In addition, don`t see
any discernible frontal boundaries to help initiate new convection.

So, a dry forecast and lack of convective debris and associated
outflow boundaries leaves the door open for the the oppressive heat
and humidity to spread across the entire CWA on Monday. Did notice
some slightly drier dewpoints in the upper 60s/lower 70s have worked
eastward into eastern KS and this appears it will sneak into the far
western CWA on Monday and probably again on Tuesday. To offset that
expect to see slightly warmer temperatures. With Monday marking the
4th consecutive day with heat indices reaching or forecast to reach
advisory criteria from the KC Metro area southward will upgrade that
region to an Excessive Heat Warning and issue a Heat Advisory for
the rest of the CWA. Will hold off on extending headlines into
Tuesday as it`s a bit more complicated owing to a cold front
approaching northwest MO in the afternoon and uncertainty as to how
far east these "drier" dewpoints will spread east.

Tuesday night - Wednesday:

Falling mid/upper level heights due to an upper trough tracking east
across the northern portions of the continental U.S. will allow a
cold front to press southward through the central U.S. While
scattered convection will likely develop along this cold front a
lack of upper level support will mean low level convergence will
need to be the main driver. Despite that, high precipitable water
values in excess of 2 inches tied to the front could result in some
locally heavy rainfall with the storms. Some lingering morning
convection over the southern CWA before the front pushes into
southern MO.

Thursday - Sunday:

The aforementioned northern U.S. upper trough is progged to rotate
into eastern Canada with the Plains upper high retrograding into the
Southern Plateau and intermountain region. This will result in
northwest flow with its typical embedded weak shortwaves/vorticity
maxima to drive one nuts. Timing/location of these features this far
out is fruitless so for now slight chance and low chance PoPs
(mainly for the northern CWA) is the preferred way to play it. On
the plus side this period should see more seasonal temperatures with
highs in the mid/upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Weak outflow boundary over west central MO should wash out this
afternoon so looking at a dry forecast with VFR conditions.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for KSZ025-102.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for KSZ057-
     060-103>105.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-030>033-038>040-044>046.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for MOZ028-
     029-037-043-053-054.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ011-020-028-029-
     037-038-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ



000
FXUS63 KLSX 262031
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
331 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  LATEST HRRR SHOW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI.  THE RAP SHOWS THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
AREA BY 06Z.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDICES OF
105 TO 110+ BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT
ADVISORY OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI AND HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA.  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO SLIGHT CHANCES BOTH DAYS.
BECAUSE OF THIS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE
90S AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 20S.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 850MB ON MONDAY AND CLOSE TO 800MB ON
TUESDAY.  WITH DEWPOINTS WELL IN THE 70S GIVEN THE RECENT
RAINFALL...THIS WILL RESULT IN THE HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 ON MONDAY
AND NEAR 110 ON TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL DOWN BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY.  FORCING WILL NOT BE GREAT ALONG THE FRONT,
BUT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)

STILL EXPECT THIS TO BE A COOLER PERIOD AS THE POLAR FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA
BECAUSE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BE BECAUSE OF A BUILDING UPPER HIGH IN THE SOUTHWEST AND A
TROUGH IN THE EAST.  WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH AGREE ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN CHANGE, THEY DIFFER ON JUST HOW FAST THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND WHETHER A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION NEXT SUNDAY.  THE GFS SHOWS DEPICTS SOME LIGHT QPF WITH
THIS FRONT WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.  WILL ALSO GO WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES GIVEN 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
TEENS CELCIUS.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES, THOUGH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON IN STL
METRO AREA. SO HAVE VICINITY TS MENTION THROUGH 01Z MONDAY.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TO PREVAIL.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN METRO AREA, THOUGH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON. SO
HAVE VICINITY TS MENTION THROUGH 01Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE, LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS TO PREVAIL.

BYRD

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR AUDRAIN
     MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON
     MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-MARION MO-MONROE
     MO-MONTGOMERY MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-SHELBY MO-ST.
     CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
     STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-
     COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-OSAGE MO.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ADAMS IL-
     BOND IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-
     JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-
     MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON
     IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 262031
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
331 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  LATEST HRRR SHOW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI.  THE RAP SHOWS THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
AREA BY 06Z.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDICES OF
105 TO 110+ BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT
ADVISORY OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI AND HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA.  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO SLIGHT CHANCES BOTH DAYS.
BECAUSE OF THIS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE
90S AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 20S.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 850MB ON MONDAY AND CLOSE TO 800MB ON
TUESDAY.  WITH DEWPOINTS WELL IN THE 70S GIVEN THE RECENT
RAINFALL...THIS WILL RESULT IN THE HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 ON MONDAY
AND NEAR 110 ON TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL DOWN BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY.  FORCING WILL NOT BE GREAT ALONG THE FRONT,
BUT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)

STILL EXPECT THIS TO BE A COOLER PERIOD AS THE POLAR FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA
BECAUSE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BE BECAUSE OF A BUILDING UPPER HIGH IN THE SOUTHWEST AND A
TROUGH IN THE EAST.  WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH AGREE ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN CHANGE, THEY DIFFER ON JUST HOW FAST THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND WHETHER A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION NEXT SUNDAY.  THE GFS SHOWS DEPICTS SOME LIGHT QPF WITH
THIS FRONT WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.  WILL ALSO GO WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES GIVEN 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
TEENS CELCIUS.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES, THOUGH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON IN STL
METRO AREA. SO HAVE VICINITY TS MENTION THROUGH 01Z MONDAY.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TO PREVAIL.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN METRO AREA, THOUGH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON. SO
HAVE VICINITY TS MENTION THROUGH 01Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE, LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS TO PREVAIL.

BYRD

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR AUDRAIN
     MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON
     MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-MARION MO-MONROE
     MO-MONTGOMERY MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-SHELBY MO-ST.
     CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
     STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-
     COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-OSAGE MO.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ADAMS IL-
     BOND IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-
     JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-
     MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON
     IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 262031
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
331 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  LATEST HRRR SHOW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI.  THE RAP SHOWS THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
AREA BY 06Z.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDICES OF
105 TO 110+ BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT
ADVISORY OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI AND HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA.  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO SLIGHT CHANCES BOTH DAYS.
BECAUSE OF THIS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE
90S AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 20S.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 850MB ON MONDAY AND CLOSE TO 800MB ON
TUESDAY.  WITH DEWPOINTS WELL IN THE 70S GIVEN THE RECENT
RAINFALL...THIS WILL RESULT IN THE HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 ON MONDAY
AND NEAR 110 ON TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL DOWN BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY.  FORCING WILL NOT BE GREAT ALONG THE FRONT,
BUT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)

STILL EXPECT THIS TO BE A COOLER PERIOD AS THE POLAR FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA
BECAUSE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BE BECAUSE OF A BUILDING UPPER HIGH IN THE SOUTHWEST AND A
TROUGH IN THE EAST.  WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH AGREE ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN CHANGE, THEY DIFFER ON JUST HOW FAST THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND WHETHER A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION NEXT SUNDAY.  THE GFS SHOWS DEPICTS SOME LIGHT QPF WITH
THIS FRONT WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.  WILL ALSO GO WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES GIVEN 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
TEENS CELCIUS.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES, THOUGH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON IN STL
METRO AREA. SO HAVE VICINITY TS MENTION THROUGH 01Z MONDAY.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TO PREVAIL.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN METRO AREA, THOUGH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON. SO
HAVE VICINITY TS MENTION THROUGH 01Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE, LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS TO PREVAIL.

BYRD

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR AUDRAIN
     MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON
     MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-MARION MO-MONROE
     MO-MONTGOMERY MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-SHELBY MO-ST.
     CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
     STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-
     COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-OSAGE MO.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ADAMS IL-
     BOND IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-
     JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-
     MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON
     IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 262031
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
331 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  LATEST HRRR SHOW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI.  THE RAP SHOWS THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
AREA BY 06Z.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDICES OF
105 TO 110+ BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT
ADVISORY OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI AND HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA.  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO SLIGHT CHANCES BOTH DAYS.
BECAUSE OF THIS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE
90S AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 20S.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 850MB ON MONDAY AND CLOSE TO 800MB ON
TUESDAY.  WITH DEWPOINTS WELL IN THE 70S GIVEN THE RECENT
RAINFALL...THIS WILL RESULT IN THE HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 ON MONDAY
AND NEAR 110 ON TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL DOWN BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY.  FORCING WILL NOT BE GREAT ALONG THE FRONT,
BUT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)

STILL EXPECT THIS TO BE A COOLER PERIOD AS THE POLAR FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA
BECAUSE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BE BECAUSE OF A BUILDING UPPER HIGH IN THE SOUTHWEST AND A
TROUGH IN THE EAST.  WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH AGREE ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN CHANGE, THEY DIFFER ON JUST HOW FAST THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND WHETHER A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION NEXT SUNDAY.  THE GFS SHOWS DEPICTS SOME LIGHT QPF WITH
THIS FRONT WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.  WILL ALSO GO WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES GIVEN 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
TEENS CELCIUS.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES, THOUGH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON IN STL
METRO AREA. SO HAVE VICINITY TS MENTION THROUGH 01Z MONDAY.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TO PREVAIL.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN METRO AREA, THOUGH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON. SO
HAVE VICINITY TS MENTION THROUGH 01Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE, LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS TO PREVAIL.

BYRD

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR AUDRAIN
     MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON
     MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-MARION MO-MONROE
     MO-MONTGOMERY MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-SHELBY MO-ST.
     CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
     STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-
     COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-OSAGE MO.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ADAMS IL-
     BOND IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-
     JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-
     MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON
     IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KSGF 261958
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
258 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Upper level ridge centered over the Texas Panhandle continues to
be the dominant weather feature during this forecast period. This
ridge is keeping a very warm and humid air mass over the region.
In addition...mid-level waves transiting the northern periphery of
this ridge are continuing to set off convection...primarily
during the afternoon and evening hours. This convection has
developed over the eastern sections of the CWA this afternoon
along old outflow boundaries.

With the ridge expected to remain in place through the the first
part of the week...expect afternoon high temperatures to range from
the low to mid 90s with heat index values in the 103 to 107
degrees.  Will thus extend the heat advisory and excessive heat
warnings into Monday. McDonald county in far southwest Missouri has
consistently been hitting heat index criteria...so will add to
excessive heat warning.

Convection remains a little tricky.  Instability is definitely present
as well as numerous outflow boundaries from previous convection.
Believe any convection that does fire late this afternoon will be
confined primarily to northern and eastern sections and will last
into the evening hours. Any convection that does fire has the
potential to become severe with damaging winds being the primary
threat.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Warm and humid conditions should remain over the area through early
next week as the upper level ridge remains firmly in place over the
Southern Plains.  The ridge is still forecast to amplify in response
to an approaching short wave now entering the Pacific Northwest. As
this occurs...the convective chances will decrease as the storm
track is pushed northward.

By late Tuesday...the upper level wave moving across the Northern
Plains will begin to deamplify the ridge and push a surface cold
front southward into the region.  While precipitation chances will
increase as the front approaches...do not expect more than slight
chance to chance PoPs at this time.

As the upper level wave transits the Great Lakes on Thursday...it
will cause the upper ridge to amplify and retrograde to the west
taking up a position over the Great Basin by Friday.  As this
happens...a more northwesterly flow develops which will bring a
slightly cooler and drier air mass to the region. Highs on
Thursday through the end of the forecast period should be in the
mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR conditions should continue through the next 24 hours, as any
thunderstorm chances remain north and east of the terminals. Winds
will remain light out of the south.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-067>071-
     078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.

     HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ066-
     077-088-093.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR MOZ066-
     077-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Boxell







000
FXUS63 KSGF 261958
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
258 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Upper level ridge centered over the Texas Panhandle continues to
be the dominant weather feature during this forecast period. This
ridge is keeping a very warm and humid air mass over the region.
In addition...mid-level waves transiting the northern periphery of
this ridge are continuing to set off convection...primarily
during the afternoon and evening hours. This convection has
developed over the eastern sections of the CWA this afternoon
along old outflow boundaries.

With the ridge expected to remain in place through the the first
part of the week...expect afternoon high temperatures to range from
the low to mid 90s with heat index values in the 103 to 107
degrees.  Will thus extend the heat advisory and excessive heat
warnings into Monday. McDonald county in far southwest Missouri has
consistently been hitting heat index criteria...so will add to
excessive heat warning.

Convection remains a little tricky.  Instability is definitely present
as well as numerous outflow boundaries from previous convection.
Believe any convection that does fire late this afternoon will be
confined primarily to northern and eastern sections and will last
into the evening hours. Any convection that does fire has the
potential to become severe with damaging winds being the primary
threat.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Warm and humid conditions should remain over the area through early
next week as the upper level ridge remains firmly in place over the
Southern Plains.  The ridge is still forecast to amplify in response
to an approaching short wave now entering the Pacific Northwest. As
this occurs...the convective chances will decrease as the storm
track is pushed northward.

By late Tuesday...the upper level wave moving across the Northern
Plains will begin to deamplify the ridge and push a surface cold
front southward into the region.  While precipitation chances will
increase as the front approaches...do not expect more than slight
chance to chance PoPs at this time.

As the upper level wave transits the Great Lakes on Thursday...it
will cause the upper ridge to amplify and retrograde to the west
taking up a position over the Great Basin by Friday.  As this
happens...a more northwesterly flow develops which will bring a
slightly cooler and drier air mass to the region. Highs on
Thursday through the end of the forecast period should be in the
mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR conditions should continue through the next 24 hours, as any
thunderstorm chances remain north and east of the terminals. Winds
will remain light out of the south.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-067>071-
     078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.

     HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ066-
     077-088-093.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR MOZ066-
     077-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Boxell






000
FXUS63 KSGF 261958
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
258 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Upper level ridge centered over the Texas Panhandle continues to
be the dominant weather feature during this forecast period. This
ridge is keeping a very warm and humid air mass over the region.
In addition...mid-level waves transiting the northern periphery of
this ridge are continuing to set off convection...primarily
during the afternoon and evening hours. This convection has
developed over the eastern sections of the CWA this afternoon
along old outflow boundaries.

With the ridge expected to remain in place through the the first
part of the week...expect afternoon high temperatures to range from
the low to mid 90s with heat index values in the 103 to 107
degrees.  Will thus extend the heat advisory and excessive heat
warnings into Monday. McDonald county in far southwest Missouri has
consistently been hitting heat index criteria...so will add to
excessive heat warning.

Convection remains a little tricky.  Instability is definitely present
as well as numerous outflow boundaries from previous convection.
Believe any convection that does fire late this afternoon will be
confined primarily to northern and eastern sections and will last
into the evening hours. Any convection that does fire has the
potential to become severe with damaging winds being the primary
threat.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Warm and humid conditions should remain over the area through early
next week as the upper level ridge remains firmly in place over the
Southern Plains.  The ridge is still forecast to amplify in response
to an approaching short wave now entering the Pacific Northwest. As
this occurs...the convective chances will decrease as the storm
track is pushed northward.

By late Tuesday...the upper level wave moving across the Northern
Plains will begin to deamplify the ridge and push a surface cold
front southward into the region.  While precipitation chances will
increase as the front approaches...do not expect more than slight
chance to chance PoPs at this time.

As the upper level wave transits the Great Lakes on Thursday...it
will cause the upper ridge to amplify and retrograde to the west
taking up a position over the Great Basin by Friday.  As this
happens...a more northwesterly flow develops which will bring a
slightly cooler and drier air mass to the region. Highs on
Thursday through the end of the forecast period should be in the
mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR conditions should continue through the next 24 hours, as any
thunderstorm chances remain north and east of the terminals. Winds
will remain light out of the south.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-067>071-
     078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.

     HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ066-
     077-088-093.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR MOZ066-
     077-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Boxell







000
FXUS63 KSGF 261958
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
258 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Upper level ridge centered over the Texas Panhandle continues to
be the dominant weather feature during this forecast period. This
ridge is keeping a very warm and humid air mass over the region.
In addition...mid-level waves transiting the northern periphery of
this ridge are continuing to set off convection...primarily
during the afternoon and evening hours. This convection has
developed over the eastern sections of the CWA this afternoon
along old outflow boundaries.

With the ridge expected to remain in place through the the first
part of the week...expect afternoon high temperatures to range from
the low to mid 90s with heat index values in the 103 to 107
degrees.  Will thus extend the heat advisory and excessive heat
warnings into Monday. McDonald county in far southwest Missouri has
consistently been hitting heat index criteria...so will add to
excessive heat warning.

Convection remains a little tricky.  Instability is definitely present
as well as numerous outflow boundaries from previous convection.
Believe any convection that does fire late this afternoon will be
confined primarily to northern and eastern sections and will last
into the evening hours. Any convection that does fire has the
potential to become severe with damaging winds being the primary
threat.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Warm and humid conditions should remain over the area through early
next week as the upper level ridge remains firmly in place over the
Southern Plains.  The ridge is still forecast to amplify in response
to an approaching short wave now entering the Pacific Northwest. As
this occurs...the convective chances will decrease as the storm
track is pushed northward.

By late Tuesday...the upper level wave moving across the Northern
Plains will begin to deamplify the ridge and push a surface cold
front southward into the region.  While precipitation chances will
increase as the front approaches...do not expect more than slight
chance to chance PoPs at this time.

As the upper level wave transits the Great Lakes on Thursday...it
will cause the upper ridge to amplify and retrograde to the west
taking up a position over the Great Basin by Friday.  As this
happens...a more northwesterly flow develops which will bring a
slightly cooler and drier air mass to the region. Highs on
Thursday through the end of the forecast period should be in the
mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR conditions should continue through the next 24 hours, as any
thunderstorm chances remain north and east of the terminals. Winds
will remain light out of the south.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-067>071-
     078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.

     HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ066-
     077-088-093.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR MOZ066-
     077-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Boxell







000
FXUS63 KSGF 261958
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
258 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Upper level ridge centered over the Texas Panhandle continues to
be the dominant weather feature during this forecast period. This
ridge is keeping a very warm and humid air mass over the region.
In addition...mid-level waves transiting the northern periphery of
this ridge are continuing to set off convection...primarily
during the afternoon and evening hours. This convection has
developed over the eastern sections of the CWA this afternoon
along old outflow boundaries.

With the ridge expected to remain in place through the the first
part of the week...expect afternoon high temperatures to range from
the low to mid 90s with heat index values in the 103 to 107
degrees.  Will thus extend the heat advisory and excessive heat
warnings into Monday. McDonald county in far southwest Missouri has
consistently been hitting heat index criteria...so will add to
excessive heat warning.

Convection remains a little tricky.  Instability is definitely present
as well as numerous outflow boundaries from previous convection.
Believe any convection that does fire late this afternoon will be
confined primarily to northern and eastern sections and will last
into the evening hours. Any convection that does fire has the
potential to become severe with damaging winds being the primary
threat.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Warm and humid conditions should remain over the area through early
next week as the upper level ridge remains firmly in place over the
Southern Plains.  The ridge is still forecast to amplify in response
to an approaching short wave now entering the Pacific Northwest. As
this occurs...the convective chances will decrease as the storm
track is pushed northward.

By late Tuesday...the upper level wave moving across the Northern
Plains will begin to deamplify the ridge and push a surface cold
front southward into the region.  While precipitation chances will
increase as the front approaches...do not expect more than slight
chance to chance PoPs at this time.

As the upper level wave transits the Great Lakes on Thursday...it
will cause the upper ridge to amplify and retrograde to the west
taking up a position over the Great Basin by Friday.  As this
happens...a more northwesterly flow develops which will bring a
slightly cooler and drier air mass to the region. Highs on
Thursday through the end of the forecast period should be in the
mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR conditions should continue through the next 24 hours, as any
thunderstorm chances remain north and east of the terminals. Winds
will remain light out of the south.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-067>071-
     078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.

     HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ066-
     077-088-093.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR MOZ066-
     077-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Boxell







000
FXUS63 KSGF 261958
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
258 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Upper level ridge centered over the Texas Panhandle continues to
be the dominant weather feature during this forecast period. This
ridge is keeping a very warm and humid air mass over the region.
In addition...mid-level waves transiting the northern periphery of
this ridge are continuing to set off convection...primarily
during the afternoon and evening hours. This convection has
developed over the eastern sections of the CWA this afternoon
along old outflow boundaries.

With the ridge expected to remain in place through the the first
part of the week...expect afternoon high temperatures to range from
the low to mid 90s with heat index values in the 103 to 107
degrees.  Will thus extend the heat advisory and excessive heat
warnings into Monday. McDonald county in far southwest Missouri has
consistently been hitting heat index criteria...so will add to
excessive heat warning.

Convection remains a little tricky.  Instability is definitely present
as well as numerous outflow boundaries from previous convection.
Believe any convection that does fire late this afternoon will be
confined primarily to northern and eastern sections and will last
into the evening hours. Any convection that does fire has the
potential to become severe with damaging winds being the primary
threat.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Warm and humid conditions should remain over the area through early
next week as the upper level ridge remains firmly in place over the
Southern Plains.  The ridge is still forecast to amplify in response
to an approaching short wave now entering the Pacific Northwest. As
this occurs...the convective chances will decrease as the storm
track is pushed northward.

By late Tuesday...the upper level wave moving across the Northern
Plains will begin to deamplify the ridge and push a surface cold
front southward into the region.  While precipitation chances will
increase as the front approaches...do not expect more than slight
chance to chance PoPs at this time.

As the upper level wave transits the Great Lakes on Thursday...it
will cause the upper ridge to amplify and retrograde to the west
taking up a position over the Great Basin by Friday.  As this
happens...a more northwesterly flow develops which will bring a
slightly cooler and drier air mass to the region. Highs on
Thursday through the end of the forecast period should be in the
mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR conditions should continue through the next 24 hours, as any
thunderstorm chances remain north and east of the terminals. Winds
will remain light out of the south.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-067>071-
     078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.

     HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ066-
     077-088-093.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR MOZ066-
     077-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Boxell







000
FXUS63 KSGF 261756
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1256 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2015

...18Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Cloud cover and precipitation was breaking out over eastern Kansas
and northern Missouri early this morning. This area was on the
northeast periphery of a summertime high that failed to expand
into the Ozarks like the models were suggesting.

Therefore, our heat headlines could be in jeopardy of not
verifying if convective trends continue to increase through the morning
hours.

There is also some indications that convection could begin to
wane, while cloud cover dissipates as mid level height rises
commence.

Therefore we have decided to leave headlines alone for now.

Regarding precipitation chances, we have confined the better
chances over the eastern Ozarks, as the HRRR suggests focused
storm development along the Highway 63 corridor through the
morning hours.

For tonight, thunderstorms can not be ruled out as there are some
convective signals present, particularly in central Missouri. Look
for overnight lows struggling to cool out of the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

We still think the summer high will finally expand over southern
Missouri, mitigating thunderstorm development Monday through
Tuesday night. Temperatures look hot and heat indices will again
threaten to rise above advisory criteria.

By Wednesday, models have been consistently showing the approach
of our next cold front. This feature will trigger our next decent
chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday.
Temperatures will cool back into the 80s for Thursday and Friday.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF have the summer high refocusing over
the western United States for next weekend. Therefore the Ozarks
will experience near normal or slightly below normal temperatures,
with low chances for showers and thunderstorms next Saturday and
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR conditions should continue through the next 24 hours, as any
thunderstorm chances remain north and east of the terminals. Winds
will remain light out of the south.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-067>071-
     078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ066-
     077-088-093.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Boxell








000
FXUS63 KSGF 261756
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1256 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2015

...18Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Cloud cover and precipitation was breaking out over eastern Kansas
and northern Missouri early this morning. This area was on the
northeast periphery of a summertime high that failed to expand
into the Ozarks like the models were suggesting.

Therefore, our heat headlines could be in jeopardy of not
verifying if convective trends continue to increase through the morning
hours.

There is also some indications that convection could begin to
wane, while cloud cover dissipates as mid level height rises
commence.

Therefore we have decided to leave headlines alone for now.

Regarding precipitation chances, we have confined the better
chances over the eastern Ozarks, as the HRRR suggests focused
storm development along the Highway 63 corridor through the
morning hours.

For tonight, thunderstorms can not be ruled out as there are some
convective signals present, particularly in central Missouri. Look
for overnight lows struggling to cool out of the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

We still think the summer high will finally expand over southern
Missouri, mitigating thunderstorm development Monday through
Tuesday night. Temperatures look hot and heat indices will again
threaten to rise above advisory criteria.

By Wednesday, models have been consistently showing the approach
of our next cold front. This feature will trigger our next decent
chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday.
Temperatures will cool back into the 80s for Thursday and Friday.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF have the summer high refocusing over
the western United States for next weekend. Therefore the Ozarks
will experience near normal or slightly below normal temperatures,
with low chances for showers and thunderstorms next Saturday and
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR conditions should continue through the next 24 hours, as any
thunderstorm chances remain north and east of the terminals. Winds
will remain light out of the south.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-067>071-
     078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ066-
     077-088-093.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Boxell







000
FXUS63 KEAX 261743
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1243 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Tail end of the convective complex has exited the CWA and threat of
flash flooding has ended so cancelled the watch.

As for the Heat Advisory the convective complex has sent a large
outflow boundary with significantly cooler and slightly drier air
across all but the far southern counties. This is similar to
yesterday and we were able to recover and heat indices shot back up
to 105 or higher. However, satellite imagery shows a pretty good
train of mid clouds extending westward into central KS. 12z NAM and
latest RAP h7 condensation pressure deficit progs depict this cloud
cover with broken cloud cover over the southern half of the CWA
through mid afternoon. If this pans out it will likely chop off a few
degrees from our temperatures resulting in heat indices a little
below criteria. Will monitor trends and adjust the advisory as
needed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM| CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Hot and humid again today with plenty of instability around for
storms to work with. Watching two areas of storms early this morning,
the first across northeast KS associated with the low-level jet and a
stronger convective complex dropping out of western IA. Models are
not handling either of these systems very well so it will be
interesting to see if/how they interact. For now it looks like most
forcing with the low-level jet and thus the heaviest rain will stay
across northeast KS, but with so much uncertainty with these
colliding features there`s the definite possibility that storms with
heavy rain could last beyond 7 AM for parts of the area. While the
most likely area for heavy rain to occur appears to be over
northeast KS into far northwest MO, there`s too much uncertainty to
get too detailed with exact location and will therefore extend the
entire flash flood watch until noon.

Final weak mid-level impulse should clear the area by early
afternoon and bring a gradual clearing trend. Assuming ample
sunshine later today, temperatures should be able to climb into the
lower or middle 90s across areas south of a Maryville to Moberly
line where continued high dewpoints will yield heat index values in
the 100 to 105 range. This lines up well with the ongoing heat
advisory.

Subtle height rises Monday and Tuesday will shift the storm track
mostly north of our area although it wouldn`t be surprising to see an
isolated instability-driven thunderstorm over northern MO on Monday.
This will also bring slightly warmer temperatures into the area both
days with highs in the lower/mid 90s across the entire forecast area.
Urban parts of KC may even see upper 90s. Heat index values look to
again exceed 105 on Monday and probably Tuesday as well although
dewpoints may be a bit lower on Tuesday. Will hold off on any heat
headlines for now but additional advisories may be needed.

Showers and storms area again possible Tuesday night into Wednesday
when a weak front will drop into the area. This will bring
temperatures back to seasonal normals for the remainder of the week
with highs in the upper 80s to near 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Weak outflow boundary over west central MO should wash out this
afternoon so looking at a dry forecast with VFR conditions.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>004-011>014-
     020>023-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...MJ



000
FXUS63 KEAX 261743
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1243 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Tail end of the convective complex has exited the CWA and threat of
flash flooding has ended so cancelled the watch.

As for the Heat Advisory the convective complex has sent a large
outflow boundary with significantly cooler and slightly drier air
across all but the far southern counties. This is similar to
yesterday and we were able to recover and heat indices shot back up
to 105 or higher. However, satellite imagery shows a pretty good
train of mid clouds extending westward into central KS. 12z NAM and
latest RAP h7 condensation pressure deficit progs depict this cloud
cover with broken cloud cover over the southern half of the CWA
through mid afternoon. If this pans out it will likely chop off a few
degrees from our temperatures resulting in heat indices a little
below criteria. Will monitor trends and adjust the advisory as
needed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM| CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Hot and humid again today with plenty of instability around for
storms to work with. Watching two areas of storms early this morning,
the first across northeast KS associated with the low-level jet and a
stronger convective complex dropping out of western IA. Models are
not handling either of these systems very well so it will be
interesting to see if/how they interact. For now it looks like most
forcing with the low-level jet and thus the heaviest rain will stay
across northeast KS, but with so much uncertainty with these
colliding features there`s the definite possibility that storms with
heavy rain could last beyond 7 AM for parts of the area. While the
most likely area for heavy rain to occur appears to be over
northeast KS into far northwest MO, there`s too much uncertainty to
get too detailed with exact location and will therefore extend the
entire flash flood watch until noon.

Final weak mid-level impulse should clear the area by early
afternoon and bring a gradual clearing trend. Assuming ample
sunshine later today, temperatures should be able to climb into the
lower or middle 90s across areas south of a Maryville to Moberly
line where continued high dewpoints will yield heat index values in
the 100 to 105 range. This lines up well with the ongoing heat
advisory.

Subtle height rises Monday and Tuesday will shift the storm track
mostly north of our area although it wouldn`t be surprising to see an
isolated instability-driven thunderstorm over northern MO on Monday.
This will also bring slightly warmer temperatures into the area both
days with highs in the lower/mid 90s across the entire forecast area.
Urban parts of KC may even see upper 90s. Heat index values look to
again exceed 105 on Monday and probably Tuesday as well although
dewpoints may be a bit lower on Tuesday. Will hold off on any heat
headlines for now but additional advisories may be needed.

Showers and storms area again possible Tuesday night into Wednesday
when a weak front will drop into the area. This will bring
temperatures back to seasonal normals for the remainder of the week
with highs in the upper 80s to near 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Weak outflow boundary over west central MO should wash out this
afternoon so looking at a dry forecast with VFR conditions.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>004-011>014-
     020>023-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...MJ



000
FXUS63 KEAX 261743
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1243 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Tail end of the convective complex has exited the CWA and threat of
flash flooding has ended so cancelled the watch.

As for the Heat Advisory the convective complex has sent a large
outflow boundary with significantly cooler and slightly drier air
across all but the far southern counties. This is similar to
yesterday and we were able to recover and heat indices shot back up
to 105 or higher. However, satellite imagery shows a pretty good
train of mid clouds extending westward into central KS. 12z NAM and
latest RAP h7 condensation pressure deficit progs depict this cloud
cover with broken cloud cover over the southern half of the CWA
through mid afternoon. If this pans out it will likely chop off a few
degrees from our temperatures resulting in heat indices a little
below criteria. Will monitor trends and adjust the advisory as
needed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM| CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Hot and humid again today with plenty of instability around for
storms to work with. Watching two areas of storms early this morning,
the first across northeast KS associated with the low-level jet and a
stronger convective complex dropping out of western IA. Models are
not handling either of these systems very well so it will be
interesting to see if/how they interact. For now it looks like most
forcing with the low-level jet and thus the heaviest rain will stay
across northeast KS, but with so much uncertainty with these
colliding features there`s the definite possibility that storms with
heavy rain could last beyond 7 AM for parts of the area. While the
most likely area for heavy rain to occur appears to be over
northeast KS into far northwest MO, there`s too much uncertainty to
get too detailed with exact location and will therefore extend the
entire flash flood watch until noon.

Final weak mid-level impulse should clear the area by early
afternoon and bring a gradual clearing trend. Assuming ample
sunshine later today, temperatures should be able to climb into the
lower or middle 90s across areas south of a Maryville to Moberly
line where continued high dewpoints will yield heat index values in
the 100 to 105 range. This lines up well with the ongoing heat
advisory.

Subtle height rises Monday and Tuesday will shift the storm track
mostly north of our area although it wouldn`t be surprising to see an
isolated instability-driven thunderstorm over northern MO on Monday.
This will also bring slightly warmer temperatures into the area both
days with highs in the lower/mid 90s across the entire forecast area.
Urban parts of KC may even see upper 90s. Heat index values look to
again exceed 105 on Monday and probably Tuesday as well although
dewpoints may be a bit lower on Tuesday. Will hold off on any heat
headlines for now but additional advisories may be needed.

Showers and storms area again possible Tuesday night into Wednesday
when a weak front will drop into the area. This will bring
temperatures back to seasonal normals for the remainder of the week
with highs in the upper 80s to near 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Weak outflow boundary over west central MO should wash out this
afternoon so looking at a dry forecast with VFR conditions.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>004-011>014-
     020>023-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...MJ



000
FXUS63 KEAX 261743
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1243 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Tail end of the convective complex has exited the CWA and threat of
flash flooding has ended so cancelled the watch.

As for the Heat Advisory the convective complex has sent a large
outflow boundary with significantly cooler and slightly drier air
across all but the far southern counties. This is similar to
yesterday and we were able to recover and heat indices shot back up
to 105 or higher. However, satellite imagery shows a pretty good
train of mid clouds extending westward into central KS. 12z NAM and
latest RAP h7 condensation pressure deficit progs depict this cloud
cover with broken cloud cover over the southern half of the CWA
through mid afternoon. If this pans out it will likely chop off a few
degrees from our temperatures resulting in heat indices a little
below criteria. Will monitor trends and adjust the advisory as
needed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM| CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Hot and humid again today with plenty of instability around for
storms to work with. Watching two areas of storms early this morning,
the first across northeast KS associated with the low-level jet and a
stronger convective complex dropping out of western IA. Models are
not handling either of these systems very well so it will be
interesting to see if/how they interact. For now it looks like most
forcing with the low-level jet and thus the heaviest rain will stay
across northeast KS, but with so much uncertainty with these
colliding features there`s the definite possibility that storms with
heavy rain could last beyond 7 AM for parts of the area. While the
most likely area for heavy rain to occur appears to be over
northeast KS into far northwest MO, there`s too much uncertainty to
get too detailed with exact location and will therefore extend the
entire flash flood watch until noon.

Final weak mid-level impulse should clear the area by early
afternoon and bring a gradual clearing trend. Assuming ample
sunshine later today, temperatures should be able to climb into the
lower or middle 90s across areas south of a Maryville to Moberly
line where continued high dewpoints will yield heat index values in
the 100 to 105 range. This lines up well with the ongoing heat
advisory.

Subtle height rises Monday and Tuesday will shift the storm track
mostly north of our area although it wouldn`t be surprising to see an
isolated instability-driven thunderstorm over northern MO on Monday.
This will also bring slightly warmer temperatures into the area both
days with highs in the lower/mid 90s across the entire forecast area.
Urban parts of KC may even see upper 90s. Heat index values look to
again exceed 105 on Monday and probably Tuesday as well although
dewpoints may be a bit lower on Tuesday. Will hold off on any heat
headlines for now but additional advisories may be needed.

Showers and storms area again possible Tuesday night into Wednesday
when a weak front will drop into the area. This will bring
temperatures back to seasonal normals for the remainder of the week
with highs in the upper 80s to near 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Weak outflow boundary over west central MO should wash out this
afternoon so looking at a dry forecast with VFR conditions.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>004-011>014-
     020>023-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...MJ



000
FXUS63 KLSX 261736
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1236 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED AND MOVED OFF TO THE EAST, SO LET FLASH
FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE AT NOON. SEEING SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS OVER
CENTRAL MISSOURI, SO COULD STILL SEE HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND
105 THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL
MO. OTHERWISE, WITH PLENTY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, COULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POP UP THIS AFTERNOON, SO KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS.

BYRD
&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FIRST MCS CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGH NORTHWEST THIRD OF OUR CWA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH ESE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PREDAWN
HOURS. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER RENEGADE SHORTWAVE MIGRATING THROUGH THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIVE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER WESTERN IA, AND
OVER THE LAST 90 MINUTES THERE HAS ALSO BEEN RENEWED DEVELOPMENT
OVER NE KS...SE NE...AND NW MO AS LOW LEVEL JET REINTENSIFIES
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. MOST EXPLICIT CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS HAVE
PICKED UP ON THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT, AND THEY WORK IT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING. AT THIS POINT SEE NO REASON TO
QUIBBLE WITH THIS SCENARIO, AND FORECAST DETAILS FOR THE MORNING ATTEMPT
TO MIMIC THIS TREND.

WITH THE RENEWED UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT, HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON (AND HAVE ALSO EXPANDED IT TO INCLUDE
MONITEAU AND COLE COUNTIES BASED ON HEAVY RAIN CURRENTLY CLIPPING
THESE AREAS). WHILE I DON`T BELIEVE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE
QUITE AS WIDESPREAD AS CURRENT ACTIVITY, ANOTHER ROUND OF
DOWNPOURS OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS.

MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...UNCERTAIN OF DETAILS ABOUT AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THERE SEEMS TO BE A TENDENCY IN BOTH THE HI-RES AND
SYNOPTIC MODELS THAT WEAK BUT PERSISTENT WAA WILL PRODUCE THE MAIN
CHANCE OF STORMS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA, BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED AMS ALMOST
EVERYWHERE. SO, HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE, WITH
HIGHEST POPS OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

NO CHANGES TO HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. MORNING CLOUDS AND
PRECIP WILL LIKELY MAKE THE TEMP CLIMB A STRUGGLE ONCE AGAIN
TODAY, BUT IF CLOUDS THIN AS ANTICIPATED BELIEVE A FEW LOCATIONS
OVER MID MO WILL REACH A HI OF 105 FOR AN HOUR OR SO.

TRUETT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MODELS ARE STILL FORECASTING AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE...FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE A DECREASE IN THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WORK WEEK, WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY. IT
MAY BE THAT THIS INTENSIFICATION OF THE RIDGING WILL FINALLY
SUPPRESS ALL CONVECTION, BUT MODELS STILL CONTINUE TO KICK OUT A
FEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION HERE AND THERE AND GIVEN THE DIRTY
NATURE OF THIS RIDGING CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT THIS SCENARIO.
SO...WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...PRIMARILY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IF ABOVE THINKING PANS OUT...HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE NECESSARY OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME. TO
AVOID HEADLINE CONFUSION WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AND TODAY`S HEAT
ADVISORY...OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES AT THIS
POINT, BUT WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO.

STILL LOOKS LIKE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN BY MIDWEEK, WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BRINGING ONE MORE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE FA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
ENDING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THE HOT AND SULTRY
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS WEEK, THE AIRMASS CHANGE TO COOLER AND LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE.

TRUETT
&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES, THOUGH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON IN STL
METRO AREA. SO HAVE VICINITY TS MENTION THROUGH 01Z MONDAY.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TO PREVAIL.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN METRO AREA, THOUGH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON. SO
HAVE VICINITY TS MENTION THROUGH 01Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE, LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS TO PREVAIL.

BYRD
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BOONE MO-CALLAWAY
     MO-COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-OSAGE MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 261736
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1236 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED AND MOVED OFF TO THE EAST, SO LET FLASH
FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE AT NOON. SEEING SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS OVER
CENTRAL MISSOURI, SO COULD STILL SEE HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND
105 THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL
MO. OTHERWISE, WITH PLENTY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, COULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POP UP THIS AFTERNOON, SO KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS.

BYRD
&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FIRST MCS CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGH NORTHWEST THIRD OF OUR CWA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH ESE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PREDAWN
HOURS. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER RENEGADE SHORTWAVE MIGRATING THROUGH THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIVE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER WESTERN IA, AND
OVER THE LAST 90 MINUTES THERE HAS ALSO BEEN RENEWED DEVELOPMENT
OVER NE KS...SE NE...AND NW MO AS LOW LEVEL JET REINTENSIFIES
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. MOST EXPLICIT CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS HAVE
PICKED UP ON THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT, AND THEY WORK IT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING. AT THIS POINT SEE NO REASON TO
QUIBBLE WITH THIS SCENARIO, AND FORECAST DETAILS FOR THE MORNING ATTEMPT
TO MIMIC THIS TREND.

WITH THE RENEWED UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT, HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON (AND HAVE ALSO EXPANDED IT TO INCLUDE
MONITEAU AND COLE COUNTIES BASED ON HEAVY RAIN CURRENTLY CLIPPING
THESE AREAS). WHILE I DON`T BELIEVE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE
QUITE AS WIDESPREAD AS CURRENT ACTIVITY, ANOTHER ROUND OF
DOWNPOURS OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS.

MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...UNCERTAIN OF DETAILS ABOUT AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THERE SEEMS TO BE A TENDENCY IN BOTH THE HI-RES AND
SYNOPTIC MODELS THAT WEAK BUT PERSISTENT WAA WILL PRODUCE THE MAIN
CHANCE OF STORMS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA, BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED AMS ALMOST
EVERYWHERE. SO, HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE, WITH
HIGHEST POPS OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

NO CHANGES TO HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. MORNING CLOUDS AND
PRECIP WILL LIKELY MAKE THE TEMP CLIMB A STRUGGLE ONCE AGAIN
TODAY, BUT IF CLOUDS THIN AS ANTICIPATED BELIEVE A FEW LOCATIONS
OVER MID MO WILL REACH A HI OF 105 FOR AN HOUR OR SO.

TRUETT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MODELS ARE STILL FORECASTING AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE...FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE A DECREASE IN THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WORK WEEK, WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY. IT
MAY BE THAT THIS INTENSIFICATION OF THE RIDGING WILL FINALLY
SUPPRESS ALL CONVECTION, BUT MODELS STILL CONTINUE TO KICK OUT A
FEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION HERE AND THERE AND GIVEN THE DIRTY
NATURE OF THIS RIDGING CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT THIS SCENARIO.
SO...WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...PRIMARILY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IF ABOVE THINKING PANS OUT...HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE NECESSARY OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME. TO
AVOID HEADLINE CONFUSION WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AND TODAY`S HEAT
ADVISORY...OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES AT THIS
POINT, BUT WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO.

STILL LOOKS LIKE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN BY MIDWEEK, WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BRINGING ONE MORE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE FA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
ENDING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THE HOT AND SULTRY
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS WEEK, THE AIRMASS CHANGE TO COOLER AND LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE.

TRUETT
&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES, THOUGH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON IN STL
METRO AREA. SO HAVE VICINITY TS MENTION THROUGH 01Z MONDAY.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TO PREVAIL.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN METRO AREA, THOUGH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON. SO
HAVE VICINITY TS MENTION THROUGH 01Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE, LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS TO PREVAIL.

BYRD
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BOONE MO-CALLAWAY
     MO-COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-OSAGE MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KEAX 261502
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1002 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Tail end of the convective complex has exited the CWA and threat of
flash flooding has ended so cancelled the watch.

As for the Heat Advisory the convective complex has sent a large
outflow boundary with significantly cooler and slightly drier air
across all but the far southern counties. This is similar to
yesterday and we were able to recover and heat indices shot back up
to 105 or higher. However, satellite imagery shows a pretty good
train of mid clouds extending westward into central KS. 12z NAM and
latest RAP h7 condensation pressure deficit progs depict this cloud
cover with broken cloud cover over the southern half of the CWA
through mid afternoon. If this pans out it will likely chop off a few
degrees from our temperatures resulting in heat indices a little
below criteria. Will monitor trends and adjust the advisory as
needed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM| CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Hot and humid again today with plenty of instability around for
storms to work with. Watching two areas of storms early this morning,
the first across northeast KS associated with the low-level jet and a
stronger convective complex dropping out of western IA. Models are
not handling either of these systems very well so it will be
interesting to see if/how they interact. For now it looks like most
forcing with the low-level jet and thus the heaviest rain will stay
across northeast KS, but with so much uncertainty with these
colliding features there`s the definite possibility that storms with
heavy rain could last beyond 7 AM for parts of the area. While the
most likely area for heavy rain to occur appears to be over
northeast KS into far northwest MO, there`s too much uncertainty to
get too detailed with exact location and will therefore extend the
entire flash flood watch until noon.

Final weak mid-level impulse should clear the area by early
afternoon and bring a gradual clearing trend. Assuming ample
sunshine later today, temperatures should be able to climb into the
lower or middle 90s across areas south of a Maryville to Moberly
line where continued high dewpoints will yield heat index values in
the 100 to 105 range. This lines up well with the ongoing heat
advisory.

Subtle height rises Monday and Tuesday will shift the storm track
mostly north of our area although it wouldn`t be surprising to see an
isolated instability-driven thunderstorm over northern MO on Monday.
This will also bring slightly warmer temperatures into the area both
days with highs in the lower/mid 90s across the entire forecast area.
Urban parts of KC may even see upper 90s. Heat index values look to
again exceed 105 on Monday and probably Tuesday as well although
dewpoints may be a bit lower on Tuesday. Will hold off on any heat
headlines for now but additional advisories may be needed.

Showers and storms area again possible Tuesday night into Wednesday
when a weak front will drop into the area. This will bring
temperatures back to seasonal normals for the remainder of the week
with highs in the upper 80s to near 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 609 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Scattered storms will continue for the next 2 to 3 hours before
things start to dry out by late morning and early afternoon. Quiet
weather expected after that time.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>004-011>014-
     020>023-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel



000
FXUS63 KEAX 261502
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1002 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Tail end of the convective complex has exited the CWA and threat of
flash flooding has ended so cancelled the watch.

As for the Heat Advisory the convective complex has sent a large
outflow boundary with significantly cooler and slightly drier air
across all but the far southern counties. This is similar to
yesterday and we were able to recover and heat indices shot back up
to 105 or higher. However, satellite imagery shows a pretty good
train of mid clouds extending westward into central KS. 12z NAM and
latest RAP h7 condensation pressure deficit progs depict this cloud
cover with broken cloud cover over the southern half of the CWA
through mid afternoon. If this pans out it will likely chop off a few
degrees from our temperatures resulting in heat indices a little
below criteria. Will monitor trends and adjust the advisory as
needed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM| CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Hot and humid again today with plenty of instability around for
storms to work with. Watching two areas of storms early this morning,
the first across northeast KS associated with the low-level jet and a
stronger convective complex dropping out of western IA. Models are
not handling either of these systems very well so it will be
interesting to see if/how they interact. For now it looks like most
forcing with the low-level jet and thus the heaviest rain will stay
across northeast KS, but with so much uncertainty with these
colliding features there`s the definite possibility that storms with
heavy rain could last beyond 7 AM for parts of the area. While the
most likely area for heavy rain to occur appears to be over
northeast KS into far northwest MO, there`s too much uncertainty to
get too detailed with exact location and will therefore extend the
entire flash flood watch until noon.

Final weak mid-level impulse should clear the area by early
afternoon and bring a gradual clearing trend. Assuming ample
sunshine later today, temperatures should be able to climb into the
lower or middle 90s across areas south of a Maryville to Moberly
line where continued high dewpoints will yield heat index values in
the 100 to 105 range. This lines up well with the ongoing heat
advisory.

Subtle height rises Monday and Tuesday will shift the storm track
mostly north of our area although it wouldn`t be surprising to see an
isolated instability-driven thunderstorm over northern MO on Monday.
This will also bring slightly warmer temperatures into the area both
days with highs in the lower/mid 90s across the entire forecast area.
Urban parts of KC may even see upper 90s. Heat index values look to
again exceed 105 on Monday and probably Tuesday as well although
dewpoints may be a bit lower on Tuesday. Will hold off on any heat
headlines for now but additional advisories may be needed.

Showers and storms area again possible Tuesday night into Wednesday
when a weak front will drop into the area. This will bring
temperatures back to seasonal normals for the remainder of the week
with highs in the upper 80s to near 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 609 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Scattered storms will continue for the next 2 to 3 hours before
things start to dry out by late morning and early afternoon. Quiet
weather expected after that time.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>004-011>014-
     020>023-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel




000
FXUS63 KSGF 261153
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
653 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Cloud cover and precipitation was breaking out over eastern Kansas
and northern Missouri early this morning. This area was on the
northeast periphery of a summertime high that failed to expand
into the Ozarks like the models were suggesting.

Therefore, our heat headlines could be in jeopardy of not
verifying if convective trends continue to increase through the morning
hours.

There is also some indications that convection could begin to
wane, while cloud cover dissipates as mid level height rises
commence.

Therefore we have decided to leave headlines alone for now.

Regarding precipitation chances, we have confined the better
chances over the eastern Ozarks, as the HRRR suggests focused
storm development along the Highway 63 corridor through the
morning hours.

For tonight, thunderstorms can not be ruled out as there are some
convective signals present, particularly in central Missouri. Look
for overnight lows struggling to cool out of the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

We still think the summer high will finally expand over southern
Missouri, mitigating thunderstorm development Monday through
Tuesday night. Temperatures look hot and heat indices will again
threaten to rise above advisory criteria.

By Wednesday, models have been consistently showing the approach
of our next cold front. This feature will trigger our next decent
chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday.
Temperatures will cool back into the 80s for Thursday and Friday.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF have the summer high refocusing over
the western United States for next weekend. Therefore the Ozarks
will experience near normal or slightly below normal temperatures,
with low chances for showers and thunderstorms next Saturday and
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. Similar
conditions to the past 24 hours are expected with a warm front
north of the area. An unstable air mass is in place and
thunderstorms are possible but it`s hard to determine timing and
placement. Overall better chances will be north and northeast of
the taf sites.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ055>058-067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ066-077-088-093.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KSGF 261153
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
653 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Cloud cover and precipitation was breaking out over eastern Kansas
and northern Missouri early this morning. This area was on the
northeast periphery of a summertime high that failed to expand
into the Ozarks like the models were suggesting.

Therefore, our heat headlines could be in jeopardy of not
verifying if convective trends continue to increase through the morning
hours.

There is also some indications that convection could begin to
wane, while cloud cover dissipates as mid level height rises
commence.

Therefore we have decided to leave headlines alone for now.

Regarding precipitation chances, we have confined the better
chances over the eastern Ozarks, as the HRRR suggests focused
storm development along the Highway 63 corridor through the
morning hours.

For tonight, thunderstorms can not be ruled out as there are some
convective signals present, particularly in central Missouri. Look
for overnight lows struggling to cool out of the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

We still think the summer high will finally expand over southern
Missouri, mitigating thunderstorm development Monday through
Tuesday night. Temperatures look hot and heat indices will again
threaten to rise above advisory criteria.

By Wednesday, models have been consistently showing the approach
of our next cold front. This feature will trigger our next decent
chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday.
Temperatures will cool back into the 80s for Thursday and Friday.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF have the summer high refocusing over
the western United States for next weekend. Therefore the Ozarks
will experience near normal or slightly below normal temperatures,
with low chances for showers and thunderstorms next Saturday and
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. Similar
conditions to the past 24 hours are expected with a warm front
north of the area. An unstable air mass is in place and
thunderstorms are possible but it`s hard to determine timing and
placement. Overall better chances will be north and northeast of
the taf sites.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ055>058-067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ066-077-088-093.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KSGF 261153
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
653 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Cloud cover and precipitation was breaking out over eastern Kansas
and northern Missouri early this morning. This area was on the
northeast periphery of a summertime high that failed to expand
into the Ozarks like the models were suggesting.

Therefore, our heat headlines could be in jeopardy of not
verifying if convective trends continue to increase through the morning
hours.

There is also some indications that convection could begin to
wane, while cloud cover dissipates as mid level height rises
commence.

Therefore we have decided to leave headlines alone for now.

Regarding precipitation chances, we have confined the better
chances over the eastern Ozarks, as the HRRR suggests focused
storm development along the Highway 63 corridor through the
morning hours.

For tonight, thunderstorms can not be ruled out as there are some
convective signals present, particularly in central Missouri. Look
for overnight lows struggling to cool out of the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

We still think the summer high will finally expand over southern
Missouri, mitigating thunderstorm development Monday through
Tuesday night. Temperatures look hot and heat indices will again
threaten to rise above advisory criteria.

By Wednesday, models have been consistently showing the approach
of our next cold front. This feature will trigger our next decent
chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday.
Temperatures will cool back into the 80s for Thursday and Friday.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF have the summer high refocusing over
the western United States for next weekend. Therefore the Ozarks
will experience near normal or slightly below normal temperatures,
with low chances for showers and thunderstorms next Saturday and
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. Similar
conditions to the past 24 hours are expected with a warm front
north of the area. An unstable air mass is in place and
thunderstorms are possible but it`s hard to determine timing and
placement. Overall better chances will be north and northeast of
the taf sites.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ055>058-067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ066-077-088-093.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KSGF 261153
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
653 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Cloud cover and precipitation was breaking out over eastern Kansas
and northern Missouri early this morning. This area was on the
northeast periphery of a summertime high that failed to expand
into the Ozarks like the models were suggesting.

Therefore, our heat headlines could be in jeopardy of not
verifying if convective trends continue to increase through the morning
hours.

There is also some indications that convection could begin to
wane, while cloud cover dissipates as mid level height rises
commence.

Therefore we have decided to leave headlines alone for now.

Regarding precipitation chances, we have confined the better
chances over the eastern Ozarks, as the HRRR suggests focused
storm development along the Highway 63 corridor through the
morning hours.

For tonight, thunderstorms can not be ruled out as there are some
convective signals present, particularly in central Missouri. Look
for overnight lows struggling to cool out of the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

We still think the summer high will finally expand over southern
Missouri, mitigating thunderstorm development Monday through
Tuesday night. Temperatures look hot and heat indices will again
threaten to rise above advisory criteria.

By Wednesday, models have been consistently showing the approach
of our next cold front. This feature will trigger our next decent
chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday.
Temperatures will cool back into the 80s for Thursday and Friday.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF have the summer high refocusing over
the western United States for next weekend. Therefore the Ozarks
will experience near normal or slightly below normal temperatures,
with low chances for showers and thunderstorms next Saturday and
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. Similar
conditions to the past 24 hours are expected with a warm front
north of the area. An unstable air mass is in place and
thunderstorms are possible but it`s hard to determine timing and
placement. Overall better chances will be north and northeast of
the taf sites.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ055>058-067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ066-077-088-093.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KLSX 261148
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
648 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FIRST MCS CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGH NORTHWEST THIRD OF OUR CWA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH ESE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PREDAWN
HOURS. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER RENEGADE SHORTWAVE MIGRATING THROUGH THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIVE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER WESTERN IA, AND
OVER THE LAST 90 MINUTES THERE HAS ALSO BEEN RENEWED DEVELOPMENT
OVER NE KS...SE NE...AND NW MO AS LOW LEVEL JET REINTENSIFIES
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. MOST EXPLICIT CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS HAVE
PICKED UP ON THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT, AND THEY WORK IT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING. AT THIS POINT SEE NO REASON TO
QUIBBLE WITH THIS SCENARIO, AND FORECAST DETAILS FOR THE MORNING ATTEMPT
TO MIMIC THIS TREND.

WITH THE RENEWED UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT, HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON (AND HAVE ALSO EXPANDED IT TO INCLUDE
MONITEAU AND COLE COUNTIES BASED ON HEAVY RAIN CURRENTLY CLIPPING
THESE AREAS). WHILE I DON`T BELIEVE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE
QUITE AS WIDESPREAD AS CURRENT ACTIVITY, ANOTHER ROUND OF
DOWNPOURS OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS.

MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...UNCERTAIN OF DETAILS ABOUT AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THERE SEEMS TO BE A TENDENCY IN BOTH THE HI-RES AND
SYNOPTIC MODELS THAT WEAK BUT PERSISTENT WAA WILL PRODUCE THE MAIN
CHANCE OF STORMS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA, BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED AMS ALMOST
EVERYWHERE. SO, HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE, WITH
HIGHEST POPS OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

NO CHANGES TO HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. MORNING CLOUDS AND
PRECIP WILL LIKELY MAKE THE TEMP CLIMB A STRUGGLE ONCE AGAIN
TODAY, BUT IF CLOUDS THIN AS ANTICIPATED BELIEVE A FEW LOCATIONS
OVER MID MO WILL REACH A HI OF 105 FOR AN HOUR OR SO.

TRUETT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MODELS ARE STILL FORECASTING AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE...FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE A DECREASE IN THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WORK WEEK, WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY. IT
MAY BE THAT THIS INTENSIFICATION OF THE RIDGING WILL FINALLY
SUPPRESS ALL CONVECTION, BUT MODELS STILL CONTINUE TO KICK OUT A
FEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION HERE AND THERE AND GIVEN THE DIRTY
NATURE OF THIS RIDGING CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT THIS SCENARIO.
SO...WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...PRIMARILY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IF ABOVE THINKING PANS OUT...HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE NECESSARY OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME. TO
AVOID HEADLINE CONFUSION WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AND TODAY`S HEAT
ADVISORY...OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES AT THIS
POINT, BUT WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO.

STILL LOOKS LIKE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN BY MIDWEEK, WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BRINGING ONE MORE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE FA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
ENDING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THE HOT AND SULTRY
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS WEEK, THE AIRMASS CHANGE TO COOLER AND LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE.

TRUETT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SPECIFICS FOR KCOU, KUIN: SH/TS IN THE VICINITY OF KUIN SHOULD
MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX OVER NORTHWESTERN MO AND SOUTHERN IA COULD REACH AT LEAST
KCOU IN SEVERAL HOURS AND MAY ALSO AFFECT KUIN. IF THIS
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DOES NOT HOLD TOGETHER THEN ADDITIONAL SH/TS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND AFFECT
THE TERMINALS.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: MCV WAS PASSING NEAR KSUS AT TAF
ISSUANCE. THE RAIN SHOULD END BRIEFLY THIS MORNING BEFORE A SECOND
BAND OF SH/TS MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS BEFORE 15Z. ADDITIONAL
SH/TS SHOULD THEN DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

KANOFSKY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     91  78  94  79 /  50  30  20  10
QUINCY          88  73  91  74 /  50  30  20  20
COLUMBIA        92  75  95  75 /  50  20  20  10
JEFFERSON CITY  92  76  95  76 /  50  20  10  10
SALEM           89  73  91  75 /  50  40  20  10
FARMINGTON      88  73  92  75 /  50  20  10   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE MO-
     CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MARION MO-
     MONITEAU MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY
     MO.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BOONE
     MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-OSAGE MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-
     PIKE IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 261148
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
648 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FIRST MCS CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGH NORTHWEST THIRD OF OUR CWA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH ESE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PREDAWN
HOURS. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER RENEGADE SHORTWAVE MIGRATING THROUGH THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIVE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER WESTERN IA, AND
OVER THE LAST 90 MINUTES THERE HAS ALSO BEEN RENEWED DEVELOPMENT
OVER NE KS...SE NE...AND NW MO AS LOW LEVEL JET REINTENSIFIES
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. MOST EXPLICIT CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS HAVE
PICKED UP ON THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT, AND THEY WORK IT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING. AT THIS POINT SEE NO REASON TO
QUIBBLE WITH THIS SCENARIO, AND FORECAST DETAILS FOR THE MORNING ATTEMPT
TO MIMIC THIS TREND.

WITH THE RENEWED UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT, HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON (AND HAVE ALSO EXPANDED IT TO INCLUDE
MONITEAU AND COLE COUNTIES BASED ON HEAVY RAIN CURRENTLY CLIPPING
THESE AREAS). WHILE I DON`T BELIEVE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE
QUITE AS WIDESPREAD AS CURRENT ACTIVITY, ANOTHER ROUND OF
DOWNPOURS OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS.

MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...UNCERTAIN OF DETAILS ABOUT AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THERE SEEMS TO BE A TENDENCY IN BOTH THE HI-RES AND
SYNOPTIC MODELS THAT WEAK BUT PERSISTENT WAA WILL PRODUCE THE MAIN
CHANCE OF STORMS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA, BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED AMS ALMOST
EVERYWHERE. SO, HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE, WITH
HIGHEST POPS OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

NO CHANGES TO HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. MORNING CLOUDS AND
PRECIP WILL LIKELY MAKE THE TEMP CLIMB A STRUGGLE ONCE AGAIN
TODAY, BUT IF CLOUDS THIN AS ANTICIPATED BELIEVE A FEW LOCATIONS
OVER MID MO WILL REACH A HI OF 105 FOR AN HOUR OR SO.

TRUETT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MODELS ARE STILL FORECASTING AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE...FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE A DECREASE IN THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WORK WEEK, WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY. IT
MAY BE THAT THIS INTENSIFICATION OF THE RIDGING WILL FINALLY
SUPPRESS ALL CONVECTION, BUT MODELS STILL CONTINUE TO KICK OUT A
FEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION HERE AND THERE AND GIVEN THE DIRTY
NATURE OF THIS RIDGING CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT THIS SCENARIO.
SO...WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...PRIMARILY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IF ABOVE THINKING PANS OUT...HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE NECESSARY OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME. TO
AVOID HEADLINE CONFUSION WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AND TODAY`S HEAT
ADVISORY...OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES AT THIS
POINT, BUT WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO.

STILL LOOKS LIKE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN BY MIDWEEK, WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BRINGING ONE MORE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE FA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
ENDING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THE HOT AND SULTRY
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS WEEK, THE AIRMASS CHANGE TO COOLER AND LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE.

TRUETT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SPECIFICS FOR KCOU, KUIN: SH/TS IN THE VICINITY OF KUIN SHOULD
MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX OVER NORTHWESTERN MO AND SOUTHERN IA COULD REACH AT LEAST
KCOU IN SEVERAL HOURS AND MAY ALSO AFFECT KUIN. IF THIS
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DOES NOT HOLD TOGETHER THEN ADDITIONAL SH/TS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND AFFECT
THE TERMINALS.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: MCV WAS PASSING NEAR KSUS AT TAF
ISSUANCE. THE RAIN SHOULD END BRIEFLY THIS MORNING BEFORE A SECOND
BAND OF SH/TS MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS BEFORE 15Z. ADDITIONAL
SH/TS SHOULD THEN DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

KANOFSKY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     91  78  94  79 /  50  30  20  10
QUINCY          88  73  91  74 /  50  30  20  20
COLUMBIA        92  75  95  75 /  50  20  20  10
JEFFERSON CITY  92  76  95  76 /  50  20  10  10
SALEM           89  73  91  75 /  50  40  20  10
FARMINGTON      88  73  92  75 /  50  20  10   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE MO-
     CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MARION MO-
     MONITEAU MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY
     MO.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BOONE
     MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-OSAGE MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-
     PIKE IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 261148
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
648 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FIRST MCS CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGH NORTHWEST THIRD OF OUR CWA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH ESE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PREDAWN
HOURS. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER RENEGADE SHORTWAVE MIGRATING THROUGH THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIVE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER WESTERN IA, AND
OVER THE LAST 90 MINUTES THERE HAS ALSO BEEN RENEWED DEVELOPMENT
OVER NE KS...SE NE...AND NW MO AS LOW LEVEL JET REINTENSIFIES
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. MOST EXPLICIT CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS HAVE
PICKED UP ON THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT, AND THEY WORK IT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING. AT THIS POINT SEE NO REASON TO
QUIBBLE WITH THIS SCENARIO, AND FORECAST DETAILS FOR THE MORNING ATTEMPT
TO MIMIC THIS TREND.

WITH THE RENEWED UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT, HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON (AND HAVE ALSO EXPANDED IT TO INCLUDE
MONITEAU AND COLE COUNTIES BASED ON HEAVY RAIN CURRENTLY CLIPPING
THESE AREAS). WHILE I DON`T BELIEVE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE
QUITE AS WIDESPREAD AS CURRENT ACTIVITY, ANOTHER ROUND OF
DOWNPOURS OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS.

MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...UNCERTAIN OF DETAILS ABOUT AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THERE SEEMS TO BE A TENDENCY IN BOTH THE HI-RES AND
SYNOPTIC MODELS THAT WEAK BUT PERSISTENT WAA WILL PRODUCE THE MAIN
CHANCE OF STORMS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA, BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED AMS ALMOST
EVERYWHERE. SO, HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE, WITH
HIGHEST POPS OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

NO CHANGES TO HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. MORNING CLOUDS AND
PRECIP WILL LIKELY MAKE THE TEMP CLIMB A STRUGGLE ONCE AGAIN
TODAY, BUT IF CLOUDS THIN AS ANTICIPATED BELIEVE A FEW LOCATIONS
OVER MID MO WILL REACH A HI OF 105 FOR AN HOUR OR SO.

TRUETT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MODELS ARE STILL FORECASTING AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE...FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE A DECREASE IN THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WORK WEEK, WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY. IT
MAY BE THAT THIS INTENSIFICATION OF THE RIDGING WILL FINALLY
SUPPRESS ALL CONVECTION, BUT MODELS STILL CONTINUE TO KICK OUT A
FEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION HERE AND THERE AND GIVEN THE DIRTY
NATURE OF THIS RIDGING CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT THIS SCENARIO.
SO...WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...PRIMARILY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IF ABOVE THINKING PANS OUT...HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE NECESSARY OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME. TO
AVOID HEADLINE CONFUSION WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AND TODAY`S HEAT
ADVISORY...OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES AT THIS
POINT, BUT WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO.

STILL LOOKS LIKE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN BY MIDWEEK, WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BRINGING ONE MORE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE FA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
ENDING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THE HOT AND SULTRY
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS WEEK, THE AIRMASS CHANGE TO COOLER AND LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE.

TRUETT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SPECIFICS FOR KCOU, KUIN: SH/TS IN THE VICINITY OF KUIN SHOULD
MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX OVER NORTHWESTERN MO AND SOUTHERN IA COULD REACH AT LEAST
KCOU IN SEVERAL HOURS AND MAY ALSO AFFECT KUIN. IF THIS
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DOES NOT HOLD TOGETHER THEN ADDITIONAL SH/TS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND AFFECT
THE TERMINALS.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: MCV WAS PASSING NEAR KSUS AT TAF
ISSUANCE. THE RAIN SHOULD END BRIEFLY THIS MORNING BEFORE A SECOND
BAND OF SH/TS MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS BEFORE 15Z. ADDITIONAL
SH/TS SHOULD THEN DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

KANOFSKY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     91  78  94  79 /  50  30  20  10
QUINCY          88  73  91  74 /  50  30  20  20
COLUMBIA        92  75  95  75 /  50  20  20  10
JEFFERSON CITY  92  76  95  76 /  50  20  10  10
SALEM           89  73  91  75 /  50  40  20  10
FARMINGTON      88  73  92  75 /  50  20  10   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE MO-
     CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MARION MO-
     MONITEAU MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY
     MO.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BOONE
     MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-OSAGE MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-
     PIKE IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 261148
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
648 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FIRST MCS CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGH NORTHWEST THIRD OF OUR CWA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH ESE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PREDAWN
HOURS. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER RENEGADE SHORTWAVE MIGRATING THROUGH THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIVE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER WESTERN IA, AND
OVER THE LAST 90 MINUTES THERE HAS ALSO BEEN RENEWED DEVELOPMENT
OVER NE KS...SE NE...AND NW MO AS LOW LEVEL JET REINTENSIFIES
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. MOST EXPLICIT CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS HAVE
PICKED UP ON THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT, AND THEY WORK IT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING. AT THIS POINT SEE NO REASON TO
QUIBBLE WITH THIS SCENARIO, AND FORECAST DETAILS FOR THE MORNING ATTEMPT
TO MIMIC THIS TREND.

WITH THE RENEWED UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT, HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON (AND HAVE ALSO EXPANDED IT TO INCLUDE
MONITEAU AND COLE COUNTIES BASED ON HEAVY RAIN CURRENTLY CLIPPING
THESE AREAS). WHILE I DON`T BELIEVE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE
QUITE AS WIDESPREAD AS CURRENT ACTIVITY, ANOTHER ROUND OF
DOWNPOURS OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS.

MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...UNCERTAIN OF DETAILS ABOUT AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THERE SEEMS TO BE A TENDENCY IN BOTH THE HI-RES AND
SYNOPTIC MODELS THAT WEAK BUT PERSISTENT WAA WILL PRODUCE THE MAIN
CHANCE OF STORMS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA, BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED AMS ALMOST
EVERYWHERE. SO, HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE, WITH
HIGHEST POPS OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

NO CHANGES TO HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. MORNING CLOUDS AND
PRECIP WILL LIKELY MAKE THE TEMP CLIMB A STRUGGLE ONCE AGAIN
TODAY, BUT IF CLOUDS THIN AS ANTICIPATED BELIEVE A FEW LOCATIONS
OVER MID MO WILL REACH A HI OF 105 FOR AN HOUR OR SO.

TRUETT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MODELS ARE STILL FORECASTING AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE...FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE A DECREASE IN THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WORK WEEK, WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY. IT
MAY BE THAT THIS INTENSIFICATION OF THE RIDGING WILL FINALLY
SUPPRESS ALL CONVECTION, BUT MODELS STILL CONTINUE TO KICK OUT A
FEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION HERE AND THERE AND GIVEN THE DIRTY
NATURE OF THIS RIDGING CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT THIS SCENARIO.
SO...WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...PRIMARILY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IF ABOVE THINKING PANS OUT...HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE NECESSARY OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME. TO
AVOID HEADLINE CONFUSION WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AND TODAY`S HEAT
ADVISORY...OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES AT THIS
POINT, BUT WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO.

STILL LOOKS LIKE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN BY MIDWEEK, WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BRINGING ONE MORE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE FA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
ENDING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THE HOT AND SULTRY
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS WEEK, THE AIRMASS CHANGE TO COOLER AND LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE.

TRUETT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SPECIFICS FOR KCOU, KUIN: SH/TS IN THE VICINITY OF KUIN SHOULD
MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX OVER NORTHWESTERN MO AND SOUTHERN IA COULD REACH AT LEAST
KCOU IN SEVERAL HOURS AND MAY ALSO AFFECT KUIN. IF THIS
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DOES NOT HOLD TOGETHER THEN ADDITIONAL SH/TS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND AFFECT
THE TERMINALS.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: MCV WAS PASSING NEAR KSUS AT TAF
ISSUANCE. THE RAIN SHOULD END BRIEFLY THIS MORNING BEFORE A SECOND
BAND OF SH/TS MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS BEFORE 15Z. ADDITIONAL
SH/TS SHOULD THEN DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

KANOFSKY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     91  78  94  79 /  50  30  20  10
QUINCY          88  73  91  74 /  50  30  20  20
COLUMBIA        92  75  95  75 /  50  20  20  10
JEFFERSON CITY  92  76  95  76 /  50  20  10  10
SALEM           89  73  91  75 /  50  40  20  10
FARMINGTON      88  73  92  75 /  50  20  10   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE MO-
     CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MARION MO-
     MONITEAU MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY
     MO.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BOONE
     MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-OSAGE MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-
     PIKE IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 261148
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
648 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FIRST MCS CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGH NORTHWEST THIRD OF OUR CWA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH ESE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PREDAWN
HOURS. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER RENEGADE SHORTWAVE MIGRATING THROUGH THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIVE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER WESTERN IA, AND
OVER THE LAST 90 MINUTES THERE HAS ALSO BEEN RENEWED DEVELOPMENT
OVER NE KS...SE NE...AND NW MO AS LOW LEVEL JET REINTENSIFIES
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. MOST EXPLICIT CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS HAVE
PICKED UP ON THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT, AND THEY WORK IT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING. AT THIS POINT SEE NO REASON TO
QUIBBLE WITH THIS SCENARIO, AND FORECAST DETAILS FOR THE MORNING ATTEMPT
TO MIMIC THIS TREND.

WITH THE RENEWED UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT, HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON (AND HAVE ALSO EXPANDED IT TO INCLUDE
MONITEAU AND COLE COUNTIES BASED ON HEAVY RAIN CURRENTLY CLIPPING
THESE AREAS). WHILE I DON`T BELIEVE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE
QUITE AS WIDESPREAD AS CURRENT ACTIVITY, ANOTHER ROUND OF
DOWNPOURS OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS.

MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...UNCERTAIN OF DETAILS ABOUT AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THERE SEEMS TO BE A TENDENCY IN BOTH THE HI-RES AND
SYNOPTIC MODELS THAT WEAK BUT PERSISTENT WAA WILL PRODUCE THE MAIN
CHANCE OF STORMS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA, BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED AMS ALMOST
EVERYWHERE. SO, HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE, WITH
HIGHEST POPS OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

NO CHANGES TO HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. MORNING CLOUDS AND
PRECIP WILL LIKELY MAKE THE TEMP CLIMB A STRUGGLE ONCE AGAIN
TODAY, BUT IF CLOUDS THIN AS ANTICIPATED BELIEVE A FEW LOCATIONS
OVER MID MO WILL REACH A HI OF 105 FOR AN HOUR OR SO.

TRUETT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MODELS ARE STILL FORECASTING AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE...FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE A DECREASE IN THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WORK WEEK, WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY. IT
MAY BE THAT THIS INTENSIFICATION OF THE RIDGING WILL FINALLY
SUPPRESS ALL CONVECTION, BUT MODELS STILL CONTINUE TO KICK OUT A
FEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION HERE AND THERE AND GIVEN THE DIRTY
NATURE OF THIS RIDGING CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT THIS SCENARIO.
SO...WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...PRIMARILY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IF ABOVE THINKING PANS OUT...HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE NECESSARY OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME. TO
AVOID HEADLINE CONFUSION WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AND TODAY`S HEAT
ADVISORY...OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES AT THIS
POINT, BUT WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO.

STILL LOOKS LIKE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN BY MIDWEEK, WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BRINGING ONE MORE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE FA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
ENDING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THE HOT AND SULTRY
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS WEEK, THE AIRMASS CHANGE TO COOLER AND LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE.

TRUETT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SPECIFICS FOR KCOU, KUIN: SH/TS IN THE VICINITY OF KUIN SHOULD
MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX OVER NORTHWESTERN MO AND SOUTHERN IA COULD REACH AT LEAST
KCOU IN SEVERAL HOURS AND MAY ALSO AFFECT KUIN. IF THIS
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DOES NOT HOLD TOGETHER THEN ADDITIONAL SH/TS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND AFFECT
THE TERMINALS.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: MCV WAS PASSING NEAR KSUS AT TAF
ISSUANCE. THE RAIN SHOULD END BRIEFLY THIS MORNING BEFORE A SECOND
BAND OF SH/TS MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS BEFORE 15Z. ADDITIONAL
SH/TS SHOULD THEN DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

KANOFSKY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     91  78  94  79 /  50  30  20  10
QUINCY          88  73  91  74 /  50  30  20  20
COLUMBIA        92  75  95  75 /  50  20  20  10
JEFFERSON CITY  92  76  95  76 /  50  20  10  10
SALEM           89  73  91  75 /  50  40  20  10
FARMINGTON      88  73  92  75 /  50  20  10   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE MO-
     CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MARION MO-
     MONITEAU MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY
     MO.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BOONE
     MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-OSAGE MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-
     PIKE IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 261148
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
648 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FIRST MCS CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGH NORTHWEST THIRD OF OUR CWA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH ESE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PREDAWN
HOURS. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER RENEGADE SHORTWAVE MIGRATING THROUGH THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIVE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER WESTERN IA, AND
OVER THE LAST 90 MINUTES THERE HAS ALSO BEEN RENEWED DEVELOPMENT
OVER NE KS...SE NE...AND NW MO AS LOW LEVEL JET REINTENSIFIES
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. MOST EXPLICIT CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS HAVE
PICKED UP ON THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT, AND THEY WORK IT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING. AT THIS POINT SEE NO REASON TO
QUIBBLE WITH THIS SCENARIO, AND FORECAST DETAILS FOR THE MORNING ATTEMPT
TO MIMIC THIS TREND.

WITH THE RENEWED UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT, HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON (AND HAVE ALSO EXPANDED IT TO INCLUDE
MONITEAU AND COLE COUNTIES BASED ON HEAVY RAIN CURRENTLY CLIPPING
THESE AREAS). WHILE I DON`T BELIEVE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE
QUITE AS WIDESPREAD AS CURRENT ACTIVITY, ANOTHER ROUND OF
DOWNPOURS OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS.

MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...UNCERTAIN OF DETAILS ABOUT AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THERE SEEMS TO BE A TENDENCY IN BOTH THE HI-RES AND
SYNOPTIC MODELS THAT WEAK BUT PERSISTENT WAA WILL PRODUCE THE MAIN
CHANCE OF STORMS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA, BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED AMS ALMOST
EVERYWHERE. SO, HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE, WITH
HIGHEST POPS OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

NO CHANGES TO HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. MORNING CLOUDS AND
PRECIP WILL LIKELY MAKE THE TEMP CLIMB A STRUGGLE ONCE AGAIN
TODAY, BUT IF CLOUDS THIN AS ANTICIPATED BELIEVE A FEW LOCATIONS
OVER MID MO WILL REACH A HI OF 105 FOR AN HOUR OR SO.

TRUETT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MODELS ARE STILL FORECASTING AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE...FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE A DECREASE IN THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WORK WEEK, WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY. IT
MAY BE THAT THIS INTENSIFICATION OF THE RIDGING WILL FINALLY
SUPPRESS ALL CONVECTION, BUT MODELS STILL CONTINUE TO KICK OUT A
FEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION HERE AND THERE AND GIVEN THE DIRTY
NATURE OF THIS RIDGING CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT THIS SCENARIO.
SO...WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...PRIMARILY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IF ABOVE THINKING PANS OUT...HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE NECESSARY OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME. TO
AVOID HEADLINE CONFUSION WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AND TODAY`S HEAT
ADVISORY...OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES AT THIS
POINT, BUT WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO.

STILL LOOKS LIKE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN BY MIDWEEK, WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BRINGING ONE MORE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE FA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
ENDING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THE HOT AND SULTRY
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS WEEK, THE AIRMASS CHANGE TO COOLER AND LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE.

TRUETT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SPECIFICS FOR KCOU, KUIN: SH/TS IN THE VICINITY OF KUIN SHOULD
MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX OVER NORTHWESTERN MO AND SOUTHERN IA COULD REACH AT LEAST
KCOU IN SEVERAL HOURS AND MAY ALSO AFFECT KUIN. IF THIS
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DOES NOT HOLD TOGETHER THEN ADDITIONAL SH/TS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND AFFECT
THE TERMINALS.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: MCV WAS PASSING NEAR KSUS AT TAF
ISSUANCE. THE RAIN SHOULD END BRIEFLY THIS MORNING BEFORE A SECOND
BAND OF SH/TS MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS BEFORE 15Z. ADDITIONAL
SH/TS SHOULD THEN DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

KANOFSKY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     91  78  94  79 /  50  30  20  10
QUINCY          88  73  91  74 /  50  30  20  20
COLUMBIA        92  75  95  75 /  50  20  20  10
JEFFERSON CITY  92  76  95  76 /  50  20  10  10
SALEM           89  73  91  75 /  50  40  20  10
FARMINGTON      88  73  92  75 /  50  20  10   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE MO-
     CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MARION MO-
     MONITEAU MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY
     MO.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BOONE
     MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-OSAGE MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-
     PIKE IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KEAX 261109
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
609 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM| CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Hot and humid again today with plenty of instability around for
storms to work with. Watching two areas of storms early this morning,
the first across northeast KS associated with the low-level jet and a
stronger convective complex dropping out of western IA. Models are
not handling either of these systems very well so it will be
interesting to see if/how they interact. For now it looks like most
forcing with the low-level jet and thus the heaviest rain will stay
across northeast KS, but with so much uncertainty with these
colliding features there`s the definite possibility that storms with
heavy rain could last beyond 7 AM for parts of the area. While the
most likely area for heavy rain to occur appears to be over
northeast KS into far northwest MO, there`s too much uncertainty to
get too detailed with exact location and will therefore extend the
entire flash flood watch until noon.

Final weak mid-level impulse should clear the area by early
afternoon and bring a gradual clearing trend. Assuming ample
sunshine later today, temperatures should be able to climb into the
lower or middle 90s across areas south of a Maryville to Moberly
line where continued high dewpoints will yield heat index values in
the 100 to 105 range. This lines up well with the ongoing heat
advisory.

Subtle height rises Monday and Tuesday will shift the storm track
mostly north of our area although it wouldn`t be surprising to see an
isolated instability-driven thunderstorm over northern MO on Monday.
This will also bring slightly warmer temperatures into the area both
days with highs in the lower/mid 90s across the entire forecast area.
Urban parts of KC may even see upper 90s. Heat index values look to
again exceed 105 on Monday and probably Tuesday as well although
dewpoints may be a bit lower on Tuesday. Will hold off on any heat
headlines for now but additional advisories may be needed.

Showers and storms area again possible Tuesday night into Wednesday
when a weak front will drop into the area. This will bring
temperatures back to seasonal normals for the remainder of the week
with highs in the upper 80s to near 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 609 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Scattered storms will continue for the next 2 to 3 hours before
things start to dry out by late morning and early afternoon. Quiet
weather expected after that time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until Noon CDT today for KSZ025-102>105.

     HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until Noon CDT today for MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-044>046.

     HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     MOZ001>004-011>014-020>023-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel



000
FXUS63 KEAX 261109
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
609 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM| CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Hot and humid again today with plenty of instability around for
storms to work with. Watching two areas of storms early this morning,
the first across northeast KS associated with the low-level jet and a
stronger convective complex dropping out of western IA. Models are
not handling either of these systems very well so it will be
interesting to see if/how they interact. For now it looks like most
forcing with the low-level jet and thus the heaviest rain will stay
across northeast KS, but with so much uncertainty with these
colliding features there`s the definite possibility that storms with
heavy rain could last beyond 7 AM for parts of the area. While the
most likely area for heavy rain to occur appears to be over
northeast KS into far northwest MO, there`s too much uncertainty to
get too detailed with exact location and will therefore extend the
entire flash flood watch until noon.

Final weak mid-level impulse should clear the area by early
afternoon and bring a gradual clearing trend. Assuming ample
sunshine later today, temperatures should be able to climb into the
lower or middle 90s across areas south of a Maryville to Moberly
line where continued high dewpoints will yield heat index values in
the 100 to 105 range. This lines up well with the ongoing heat
advisory.

Subtle height rises Monday and Tuesday will shift the storm track
mostly north of our area although it wouldn`t be surprising to see an
isolated instability-driven thunderstorm over northern MO on Monday.
This will also bring slightly warmer temperatures into the area both
days with highs in the lower/mid 90s across the entire forecast area.
Urban parts of KC may even see upper 90s. Heat index values look to
again exceed 105 on Monday and probably Tuesday as well although
dewpoints may be a bit lower on Tuesday. Will hold off on any heat
headlines for now but additional advisories may be needed.

Showers and storms area again possible Tuesday night into Wednesday
when a weak front will drop into the area. This will bring
temperatures back to seasonal normals for the remainder of the week
with highs in the upper 80s to near 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 609 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Scattered storms will continue for the next 2 to 3 hours before
things start to dry out by late morning and early afternoon. Quiet
weather expected after that time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until Noon CDT today for KSZ025-102>105.

     HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until Noon CDT today for MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-044>046.

     HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     MOZ001>004-011>014-020>023-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel



000
FXUS63 KEAX 261109
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
609 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM| CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Hot and humid again today with plenty of instability around for
storms to work with. Watching two areas of storms early this morning,
the first across northeast KS associated with the low-level jet and a
stronger convective complex dropping out of western IA. Models are
not handling either of these systems very well so it will be
interesting to see if/how they interact. For now it looks like most
forcing with the low-level jet and thus the heaviest rain will stay
across northeast KS, but with so much uncertainty with these
colliding features there`s the definite possibility that storms with
heavy rain could last beyond 7 AM for parts of the area. While the
most likely area for heavy rain to occur appears to be over
northeast KS into far northwest MO, there`s too much uncertainty to
get too detailed with exact location and will therefore extend the
entire flash flood watch until noon.

Final weak mid-level impulse should clear the area by early
afternoon and bring a gradual clearing trend. Assuming ample
sunshine later today, temperatures should be able to climb into the
lower or middle 90s across areas south of a Maryville to Moberly
line where continued high dewpoints will yield heat index values in
the 100 to 105 range. This lines up well with the ongoing heat
advisory.

Subtle height rises Monday and Tuesday will shift the storm track
mostly north of our area although it wouldn`t be surprising to see an
isolated instability-driven thunderstorm over northern MO on Monday.
This will also bring slightly warmer temperatures into the area both
days with highs in the lower/mid 90s across the entire forecast area.
Urban parts of KC may even see upper 90s. Heat index values look to
again exceed 105 on Monday and probably Tuesday as well although
dewpoints may be a bit lower on Tuesday. Will hold off on any heat
headlines for now but additional advisories may be needed.

Showers and storms area again possible Tuesday night into Wednesday
when a weak front will drop into the area. This will bring
temperatures back to seasonal normals for the remainder of the week
with highs in the upper 80s to near 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 609 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Scattered storms will continue for the next 2 to 3 hours before
things start to dry out by late morning and early afternoon. Quiet
weather expected after that time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until Noon CDT today for KSZ025-102>105.

     HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until Noon CDT today for MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-044>046.

     HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     MOZ001>004-011>014-020>023-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel



000
FXUS63 KEAX 261109
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
609 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM| CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Hot and humid again today with plenty of instability around for
storms to work with. Watching two areas of storms early this morning,
the first across northeast KS associated with the low-level jet and a
stronger convective complex dropping out of western IA. Models are
not handling either of these systems very well so it will be
interesting to see if/how they interact. For now it looks like most
forcing with the low-level jet and thus the heaviest rain will stay
across northeast KS, but with so much uncertainty with these
colliding features there`s the definite possibility that storms with
heavy rain could last beyond 7 AM for parts of the area. While the
most likely area for heavy rain to occur appears to be over
northeast KS into far northwest MO, there`s too much uncertainty to
get too detailed with exact location and will therefore extend the
entire flash flood watch until noon.

Final weak mid-level impulse should clear the area by early
afternoon and bring a gradual clearing trend. Assuming ample
sunshine later today, temperatures should be able to climb into the
lower or middle 90s across areas south of a Maryville to Moberly
line where continued high dewpoints will yield heat index values in
the 100 to 105 range. This lines up well with the ongoing heat
advisory.

Subtle height rises Monday and Tuesday will shift the storm track
mostly north of our area although it wouldn`t be surprising to see an
isolated instability-driven thunderstorm over northern MO on Monday.
This will also bring slightly warmer temperatures into the area both
days with highs in the lower/mid 90s across the entire forecast area.
Urban parts of KC may even see upper 90s. Heat index values look to
again exceed 105 on Monday and probably Tuesday as well although
dewpoints may be a bit lower on Tuesday. Will hold off on any heat
headlines for now but additional advisories may be needed.

Showers and storms area again possible Tuesday night into Wednesday
when a weak front will drop into the area. This will bring
temperatures back to seasonal normals for the remainder of the week
with highs in the upper 80s to near 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 609 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Scattered storms will continue for the next 2 to 3 hours before
things start to dry out by late morning and early afternoon. Quiet
weather expected after that time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until Noon CDT today for KSZ025-102>105.

     HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until Noon CDT today for MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-044>046.

     HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     MOZ001>004-011>014-020>023-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel



000
FXUS63 KEAX 261109
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
609 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM| CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Hot and humid again today with plenty of instability around for
storms to work with. Watching two areas of storms early this morning,
the first across northeast KS associated with the low-level jet and a
stronger convective complex dropping out of western IA. Models are
not handling either of these systems very well so it will be
interesting to see if/how they interact. For now it looks like most
forcing with the low-level jet and thus the heaviest rain will stay
across northeast KS, but with so much uncertainty with these
colliding features there`s the definite possibility that storms with
heavy rain could last beyond 7 AM for parts of the area. While the
most likely area for heavy rain to occur appears to be over
northeast KS into far northwest MO, there`s too much uncertainty to
get too detailed with exact location and will therefore extend the
entire flash flood watch until noon.

Final weak mid-level impulse should clear the area by early
afternoon and bring a gradual clearing trend. Assuming ample
sunshine later today, temperatures should be able to climb into the
lower or middle 90s across areas south of a Maryville to Moberly
line where continued high dewpoints will yield heat index values in
the 100 to 105 range. This lines up well with the ongoing heat
advisory.

Subtle height rises Monday and Tuesday will shift the storm track
mostly north of our area although it wouldn`t be surprising to see an
isolated instability-driven thunderstorm over northern MO on Monday.
This will also bring slightly warmer temperatures into the area both
days with highs in the lower/mid 90s across the entire forecast area.
Urban parts of KC may even see upper 90s. Heat index values look to
again exceed 105 on Monday and probably Tuesday as well although
dewpoints may be a bit lower on Tuesday. Will hold off on any heat
headlines for now but additional advisories may be needed.

Showers and storms area again possible Tuesday night into Wednesday
when a weak front will drop into the area. This will bring
temperatures back to seasonal normals for the remainder of the week
with highs in the upper 80s to near 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 609 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Scattered storms will continue for the next 2 to 3 hours before
things start to dry out by late morning and early afternoon. Quiet
weather expected after that time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until Noon CDT today for KSZ025-102>105.

     HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until Noon CDT today for MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-044>046.

     HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     MOZ001>004-011>014-020>023-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel




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