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000
FXUS63 KLSX 030008
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
708 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

A weak area of high pressure was centered over northeast KS and
attempting to push some drier air into our region currently.
Dewpoints have slipped into the lower 60s across northern MO but the
drier air has been less effective elsewhere where dewpoints remain
near 70.  An expansive area of low stratus clouds existed this
morning but has since dissipated.

Clouds are expected to continue to exit or dissipate heading into
the evening hours and with the weak area of high pressure building
in and minimal continued dry air advection once the winds become
near calm, we are expecting fog to develop over the still wet to
nearly saturated ground for many locations in southwest IL and
extending back up the I-70 corridor into MO.

It still looks like nocturnal convection will get going with
development of the low level jet, but will be well west of our area
and will take much, if not all, of the night to get close to central
MO.  Backed off on PoPs as a result thru 12z/Wed.

Favored the cooler MOS temps due to anticipated fog development at
most locations.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

What does develop tonight still looks on track to eventually advance
eastward into our region on Wednesday but will probably weaken and
redevelop to some extent with the heating of the day as it slowly
progresses thru.  Backed off on timing a bit with most areas
probably seeing their best chances for rain on Wednesday afternoon
versus the morning.

Lessening chances for rain will then be seen heading into Wednesday
night, especially into MO, as the leftover convection from the
daytime limps into IL.

Thursday through Friday still on track to be well above average for
temps, with Thursday looking increasingly likely it will need a heat
headline and this may extend into Friday.  Friday will depend on how
fast an approaching cold front, and its associated rain, work into
the area.

Best chances for rain rest of the week look to be what develops
along this late week front:  Friday afternoon and night.

Behind the front, we are still looking at a nice period of below
average temps for Saturday thru Monday with dry wx.   Temps will
rebound some with rain chances returning on Tuesday.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

SFC bndry now well to the south along the KS/OK and MO/AR border
and on into the OH valley. Skies should clear this evening with winds
become lght/vrb after sunset. SFC high pressure will drift overhead
tonight. With the rain from last night allowing for a moist bndry
layer...expect widespread fog to form after midnight due to favorable
radiational cooling conditions. VSBYs may be lower than currently
indicated...will have to monitor trends overnight. Left mention of
fog out of KUIN due to limited precip. Fog should dsspt tomorrow
mrng with diurnal cu forming. Guidance indicates that convection
should dvlp overnight across ern KS on the nose of the LLJ as it
intersects the SFC bndry. This activity is expected to slide east
into MO Wednesday morning, weakening as it does so. There is some
question as to how far east the precip will make it before dssptng.
The bndry is fcst to work back north tomorrow aftn...possibly
bringing another chance for SHRA/TSTM activity. The chance for
aftn convection partially depends on what happens with the earlier
precip and assoc cloud cover. Due to the uncertainty...opted to
leave out for now.

Specifics for KSTL:

Clearing skies this evng and light winds overnight will allow fog
to form after midnight. Unsure how dense it will become at the
terminal, so opted to leave it MVFR for now but, trends will need
to be monitored overnight. Fog should dsspt tomorrow mrng with
diurnal cu forming. There is a chance for either late mrng and/or
aftn SHRAs/TSTMs as a bndry lifts north thru the area. Due to low
confidence on coverage...decided not to include in the TAF attm.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 030008
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
708 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

A weak area of high pressure was centered over northeast KS and
attempting to push some drier air into our region currently.
Dewpoints have slipped into the lower 60s across northern MO but the
drier air has been less effective elsewhere where dewpoints remain
near 70.  An expansive area of low stratus clouds existed this
morning but has since dissipated.

Clouds are expected to continue to exit or dissipate heading into
the evening hours and with the weak area of high pressure building
in and minimal continued dry air advection once the winds become
near calm, we are expecting fog to develop over the still wet to
nearly saturated ground for many locations in southwest IL and
extending back up the I-70 corridor into MO.

It still looks like nocturnal convection will get going with
development of the low level jet, but will be well west of our area
and will take much, if not all, of the night to get close to central
MO.  Backed off on PoPs as a result thru 12z/Wed.

Favored the cooler MOS temps due to anticipated fog development at
most locations.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

What does develop tonight still looks on track to eventually advance
eastward into our region on Wednesday but will probably weaken and
redevelop to some extent with the heating of the day as it slowly
progresses thru.  Backed off on timing a bit with most areas
probably seeing their best chances for rain on Wednesday afternoon
versus the morning.

Lessening chances for rain will then be seen heading into Wednesday
night, especially into MO, as the leftover convection from the
daytime limps into IL.

Thursday through Friday still on track to be well above average for
temps, with Thursday looking increasingly likely it will need a heat
headline and this may extend into Friday.  Friday will depend on how
fast an approaching cold front, and its associated rain, work into
the area.

Best chances for rain rest of the week look to be what develops
along this late week front:  Friday afternoon and night.

Behind the front, we are still looking at a nice period of below
average temps for Saturday thru Monday with dry wx.   Temps will
rebound some with rain chances returning on Tuesday.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

SFC bndry now well to the south along the KS/OK and MO/AR border
and on into the OH valley. Skies should clear this evening with winds
become lght/vrb after sunset. SFC high pressure will drift overhead
tonight. With the rain from last night allowing for a moist bndry
layer...expect widespread fog to form after midnight due to favorable
radiational cooling conditions. VSBYs may be lower than currently
indicated...will have to monitor trends overnight. Left mention of
fog out of KUIN due to limited precip. Fog should dsspt tomorrow
mrng with diurnal cu forming. Guidance indicates that convection
should dvlp overnight across ern KS on the nose of the LLJ as it
intersects the SFC bndry. This activity is expected to slide east
into MO Wednesday morning, weakening as it does so. There is some
question as to how far east the precip will make it before dssptng.
The bndry is fcst to work back north tomorrow aftn...possibly
bringing another chance for SHRA/TSTM activity. The chance for
aftn convection partially depends on what happens with the earlier
precip and assoc cloud cover. Due to the uncertainty...opted to
leave out for now.

Specifics for KSTL:

Clearing skies this evng and light winds overnight will allow fog
to form after midnight. Unsure how dense it will become at the
terminal, so opted to leave it MVFR for now but, trends will need
to be monitored overnight. Fog should dsspt tomorrow mrng with
diurnal cu forming. There is a chance for either late mrng and/or
aftn SHRAs/TSTMs as a bndry lifts north thru the area. Due to low
confidence on coverage...decided not to include in the TAF attm.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



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000
FXUS63 KEAX 022349
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
649 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Warm front lifting through the area this evening will bring a return
to summer-like heat tomorrow and Thursday. Warm air advection
associated with the front could bring a few elevated thunderstorms to
eastern KS and western MO toward sunrise as a 35-kt low-level jet
noses into the region. Upper-level support will be quite weak and
forcing ahead of the low-level jet will not be terribly focused, so
conditions do not appear favorable for widespread thunderstorms or
heavy rain with this activity. However, with MUCAPE values as high as
2500 J/kg a couple of the stronger updrafts could produce some small
hail tomorrow morning. This activity should gradually thin out
through the day as it pushes into central MO, but continued warm air
advection/isentropic lift and increasing instability could allow for
some straggling storms into the early afternoon. Due to the
possibility of clouds and a couple of storms lingering into the
afternoon, highs were nudged down slightly into the upper 80s to near
90.

By Thursday clearing skies and 850 hPa temps rising to as high as 24C
should allow surface temperatures to rise into the lower to middle
90s across the forecast area. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, this
will likely lead to afternoon heat index values in the 99 to 103
range, particularly over north central Missouri where there could be
a bit of moisture pooling ahead of an advancing cold front.

A fairly significant late summer/early fall cold front will swing
through the area Thursday night and Friday with a good chance for
showers and thunderstorms along and behind it. Parameters at this
time do not appear supportive of widespread heavy rain or strong
storms with this activity, but wouldn`t be surprised if some areas
picked up between a half inch and an inch of rain.

Conditions behind this front look fantastic for the upcoming weekend
with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 70s. Pattern then gets more
active heading into early next week as the front retreats northward
and interacts with a deeper upper-level trough digging into the
Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 646 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Made a pretty strong jump in timing for showers near KSTJ, KMCI, and
KMKC by bumping the VCTS group back about 4 hours. Mainly noted that
the short range model solution for convection at 9z was still quite a bit
west of the terminals and the NAM`s convective signal was even more
delayed than that. So with confidence in convection at the terminals
rather low, continued a VFR forecast with a possibility of VCTS for a
few hours around sunrise. Also made a fairly dramatic change to the
wind, as forecast soundings for Wed look rather mixy with perhaps
some occasional 30 kt winds reaching the surface. Will likely keep
those gusts going through 00z, then mention a decreasing wind group
with the 06z issuance.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 022349
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
649 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Warm front lifting through the area this evening will bring a return
to summer-like heat tomorrow and Thursday. Warm air advection
associated with the front could bring a few elevated thunderstorms to
eastern KS and western MO toward sunrise as a 35-kt low-level jet
noses into the region. Upper-level support will be quite weak and
forcing ahead of the low-level jet will not be terribly focused, so
conditions do not appear favorable for widespread thunderstorms or
heavy rain with this activity. However, with MUCAPE values as high as
2500 J/kg a couple of the stronger updrafts could produce some small
hail tomorrow morning. This activity should gradually thin out
through the day as it pushes into central MO, but continued warm air
advection/isentropic lift and increasing instability could allow for
some straggling storms into the early afternoon. Due to the
possibility of clouds and a couple of storms lingering into the
afternoon, highs were nudged down slightly into the upper 80s to near
90.

By Thursday clearing skies and 850 hPa temps rising to as high as 24C
should allow surface temperatures to rise into the lower to middle
90s across the forecast area. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, this
will likely lead to afternoon heat index values in the 99 to 103
range, particularly over north central Missouri where there could be
a bit of moisture pooling ahead of an advancing cold front.

A fairly significant late summer/early fall cold front will swing
through the area Thursday night and Friday with a good chance for
showers and thunderstorms along and behind it. Parameters at this
time do not appear supportive of widespread heavy rain or strong
storms with this activity, but wouldn`t be surprised if some areas
picked up between a half inch and an inch of rain.

Conditions behind this front look fantastic for the upcoming weekend
with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 70s. Pattern then gets more
active heading into early next week as the front retreats northward
and interacts with a deeper upper-level trough digging into the
Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 646 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Made a pretty strong jump in timing for showers near KSTJ, KMCI, and
KMKC by bumping the VCTS group back about 4 hours. Mainly noted that
the short range model solution for convection at 9z was still quite a bit
west of the terminals and the NAM`s convective signal was even more
delayed than that. So with confidence in convection at the terminals
rather low, continued a VFR forecast with a possibility of VCTS for a
few hours around sunrise. Also made a fairly dramatic change to the
wind, as forecast soundings for Wed look rather mixy with perhaps
some occasional 30 kt winds reaching the surface. Will likely keep
those gusts going through 00z, then mention a decreasing wind group
with the 06z issuance.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 022349
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
649 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Warm front lifting through the area this evening will bring a return
to summer-like heat tomorrow and Thursday. Warm air advection
associated with the front could bring a few elevated thunderstorms to
eastern KS and western MO toward sunrise as a 35-kt low-level jet
noses into the region. Upper-level support will be quite weak and
forcing ahead of the low-level jet will not be terribly focused, so
conditions do not appear favorable for widespread thunderstorms or
heavy rain with this activity. However, with MUCAPE values as high as
2500 J/kg a couple of the stronger updrafts could produce some small
hail tomorrow morning. This activity should gradually thin out
through the day as it pushes into central MO, but continued warm air
advection/isentropic lift and increasing instability could allow for
some straggling storms into the early afternoon. Due to the
possibility of clouds and a couple of storms lingering into the
afternoon, highs were nudged down slightly into the upper 80s to near
90.

By Thursday clearing skies and 850 hPa temps rising to as high as 24C
should allow surface temperatures to rise into the lower to middle
90s across the forecast area. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, this
will likely lead to afternoon heat index values in the 99 to 103
range, particularly over north central Missouri where there could be
a bit of moisture pooling ahead of an advancing cold front.

A fairly significant late summer/early fall cold front will swing
through the area Thursday night and Friday with a good chance for
showers and thunderstorms along and behind it. Parameters at this
time do not appear supportive of widespread heavy rain or strong
storms with this activity, but wouldn`t be surprised if some areas
picked up between a half inch and an inch of rain.

Conditions behind this front look fantastic for the upcoming weekend
with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 70s. Pattern then gets more
active heading into early next week as the front retreats northward
and interacts with a deeper upper-level trough digging into the
Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 646 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Made a pretty strong jump in timing for showers near KSTJ, KMCI, and
KMKC by bumping the VCTS group back about 4 hours. Mainly noted that
the short range model solution for convection at 9z was still quite a bit
west of the terminals and the NAM`s convective signal was even more
delayed than that. So with confidence in convection at the terminals
rather low, continued a VFR forecast with a possibility of VCTS for a
few hours around sunrise. Also made a fairly dramatic change to the
wind, as forecast soundings for Wed look rather mixy with perhaps
some occasional 30 kt winds reaching the surface. Will likely keep
those gusts going through 00z, then mention a decreasing wind group
with the 06z issuance.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 022349
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
649 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Warm front lifting through the area this evening will bring a return
to summer-like heat tomorrow and Thursday. Warm air advection
associated with the front could bring a few elevated thunderstorms to
eastern KS and western MO toward sunrise as a 35-kt low-level jet
noses into the region. Upper-level support will be quite weak and
forcing ahead of the low-level jet will not be terribly focused, so
conditions do not appear favorable for widespread thunderstorms or
heavy rain with this activity. However, with MUCAPE values as high as
2500 J/kg a couple of the stronger updrafts could produce some small
hail tomorrow morning. This activity should gradually thin out
through the day as it pushes into central MO, but continued warm air
advection/isentropic lift and increasing instability could allow for
some straggling storms into the early afternoon. Due to the
possibility of clouds and a couple of storms lingering into the
afternoon, highs were nudged down slightly into the upper 80s to near
90.

By Thursday clearing skies and 850 hPa temps rising to as high as 24C
should allow surface temperatures to rise into the lower to middle
90s across the forecast area. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, this
will likely lead to afternoon heat index values in the 99 to 103
range, particularly over north central Missouri where there could be
a bit of moisture pooling ahead of an advancing cold front.

A fairly significant late summer/early fall cold front will swing
through the area Thursday night and Friday with a good chance for
showers and thunderstorms along and behind it. Parameters at this
time do not appear supportive of widespread heavy rain or strong
storms with this activity, but wouldn`t be surprised if some areas
picked up between a half inch and an inch of rain.

Conditions behind this front look fantastic for the upcoming weekend
with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 70s. Pattern then gets more
active heading into early next week as the front retreats northward
and interacts with a deeper upper-level trough digging into the
Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 646 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Made a pretty strong jump in timing for showers near KSTJ, KMCI, and
KMKC by bumping the VCTS group back about 4 hours. Mainly noted that
the short range model solution for convection at 9z was still quite a bit
west of the terminals and the NAM`s convective signal was even more
delayed than that. So with confidence in convection at the terminals
rather low, continued a VFR forecast with a possibility of VCTS for a
few hours around sunrise. Also made a fairly dramatic change to the
wind, as forecast soundings for Wed look rather mixy with perhaps
some occasional 30 kt winds reaching the surface. Will likely keep
those gusts going through 00z, then mention a decreasing wind group
with the 06z issuance.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Leighton






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KSGF 022255
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
555 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Remnant outflow boundary now extending from central Oklahoma into
central Arkansas and this is where showers and a few thunderstorms
persist. Visible satellite imagery shows extensive cloud cover
across the region, with some signs of thinning/eroding across
eastern Kansas into western Missouri.  Models prog aforementioned boundary to
lift back northward tonight as a warm front. Nocturnal low level jet
is expected to develop over Oklahoma and Kansas with both the GFS
and NAM developing convection on the nose of the jet over Kansas
late tonight then pushing it northeastward into central and eastern
Missouri on Wednesday. Deep layer shear strongest over Kansas with
weaker shear values as you head into Missouri and thus not
expecting any severe weather. Cannot rule out a few light showers this
evening across the Ozarks and will cover this with lower end
probabilities and higher chance probabilities later tonight into
Wednesday as low level jet impinges on frontal boundary.

Humid conditions expected for Wednesday as surface dew points
expected to reach the lower 70s. This combined with temperatures in
the upper 80s to lower 90s will push heat index values in the mid
and upper 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

A brief dry period is expected Thursday before a shortwave trough
translates along the Canadian border driving a cold front southward
into the region Friday. This front will bring rain chances back to
the area for Friday and Saturday. Of more significance is much
cooler and less humid air in its wake for the weekend. 850mb temperatures
fall back into the middle teens for Saturday and Sunday. This will
bring slightly below normal temperatures with highs mainly in the
upper 70s and lower 80s. Any rain looks to exit the area early
Sunday with cool high pressure then in control for the remainder of
Sunday.

Medium range models do diverge somewhat in their solutions for
Monday and Tuesday. GFS much quicker with return flow bring rain
chances back into the picture as early as Monday, while the ECMWF
hold back until later Tuesday. With these differences went with the
model consensus for probabilities.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 553 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Generally expecting VFR conditions this evening. Some MVFR will be
possible towards morning with some light fog possible at SGF and
BBG. Scattered convection will be possible towards JLN by late
evening into the overnight hours as a low level jet develops out
in the Plains. Best coverage is expected to remain west of the
area and only will carry prob 30 group for JLN at this time.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 022255
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
555 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Remnant outflow boundary now extending from central Oklahoma into
central Arkansas and this is where showers and a few thunderstorms
persist. Visible satellite imagery shows extensive cloud cover
across the region, with some signs of thinning/eroding across
eastern Kansas into western Missouri.  Models prog aforementioned boundary to
lift back northward tonight as a warm front. Nocturnal low level jet
is expected to develop over Oklahoma and Kansas with both the GFS
and NAM developing convection on the nose of the jet over Kansas
late tonight then pushing it northeastward into central and eastern
Missouri on Wednesday. Deep layer shear strongest over Kansas with
weaker shear values as you head into Missouri and thus not
expecting any severe weather. Cannot rule out a few light showers this
evening across the Ozarks and will cover this with lower end
probabilities and higher chance probabilities later tonight into
Wednesday as low level jet impinges on frontal boundary.

Humid conditions expected for Wednesday as surface dew points
expected to reach the lower 70s. This combined with temperatures in
the upper 80s to lower 90s will push heat index values in the mid
and upper 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

A brief dry period is expected Thursday before a shortwave trough
translates along the Canadian border driving a cold front southward
into the region Friday. This front will bring rain chances back to
the area for Friday and Saturday. Of more significance is much
cooler and less humid air in its wake for the weekend. 850mb temperatures
fall back into the middle teens for Saturday and Sunday. This will
bring slightly below normal temperatures with highs mainly in the
upper 70s and lower 80s. Any rain looks to exit the area early
Sunday with cool high pressure then in control for the remainder of
Sunday.

Medium range models do diverge somewhat in their solutions for
Monday and Tuesday. GFS much quicker with return flow bring rain
chances back into the picture as early as Monday, while the ECMWF
hold back until later Tuesday. With these differences went with the
model consensus for probabilities.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 553 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Generally expecting VFR conditions this evening. Some MVFR will be
possible towards morning with some light fog possible at SGF and
BBG. Scattered convection will be possible towards JLN by late
evening into the overnight hours as a low level jet develops out
in the Plains. Best coverage is expected to remain west of the
area and only will carry prob 30 group for JLN at this time.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KLSX 022055
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
355 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

A weak area of high pressure was centered over northeast KS and
attempting to push some drier air into our region currently.
Dewpoints have slipped into the lower 60s across northern MO but the
drier air has been less effective elsewhere where dewpoints remain
near 70.  An expansive area of low stratus clouds existed this
morning but has since dissipated.

Clouds are expected to continue to exit or dissipate heading into
the evening hours and with the weak area of high pressure building
in and minimal continued dry air advection once the winds become
near calm, we are expecting fog to develop over the still wet to
nearly saturated ground for many locations in southwest IL and
extending back up the I-70 corridor into MO.

It still looks like nocturnal convection will get going with
development of the low level jet, but will be well west of our area
and will take much, if not all, of the night to get close to central
MO.  Backed off on PoPs as a result thru 12z/Wed.

Favored the cooler MOS temps due to anticipated fog development at
most locations.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

What does develop tonight still looks on track to eventually advance
eastward into our region on Wednesday but will probably weaken and
redevelop to some extent with the heating of the day as it slowly
progresses thru.  Backed off on timing a bit with most areas
probably seeing their best chances for rain on Wednesday afternoon
versus the morning.

Lessening chances for rain will then be seen heading into Wednesday
night, especially into MO, as the leftover convection from the
daytime limps into IL.

Thursday through Friday still on track to be well above average for
temps, with Thursday looking increasingly likely it will need a heat
headline and this may extend into Friday.  Friday will depend on how
fast an approaching cold front, and its associated rain, work into
the area.

Best chances for rain rest of the week look to be what develops
along this late week front:  Friday afternoon and night.

Behind the front, we are still looking at a nice period of below
average temps for Saturday thru Monday with dry wx.   Temps will
rebound some with rain chances returning on Tuesday.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

Celings across the area have been slow to improve today, and while
KUIN has gone VFR, MVFR ceilings are still affecting KCOU, KSUS,
KSTL, and KCPS. Expect improvement early this afternoon within an
hour or two of TAF valid time, with ceilings becoming scattered
VFR and then clearing after sunset this evening. With clear skies
expected overnight, attention then turns to potential fog
development. Currently, it looks like metro TAF sites as well as
KCOU have a better chance to see fog, given extra available
boundary layer moisture due to recent rainfall. Have introduced a
few hours of MVFR fog for the aforementioned locations for the
late overnight/early morning time frame, and a brief window of IFR
for KSUS. Otherwise, northwesterly winds today will become light
and variable overnight, and then become southerly on Wednesday as a
front lifts northward through the area. Showers/thunderstorms are
possible area-wide on Wednesday afternoon as well, though
uncertainties in timing/coverage preclude mention in the current
TAF.

Specifics for KSTL:

MVFR ceilings are expected to improve to scattered VFR within an
hour or two of the valid TAF period this afternoon, and then clear
after sunset later this evening. Given clear skies and ample
boundary layer moisture, have included mention of MVFR fog for
several hours during the late overnight/early morning time frame.
While 12Z models indicate the potential for some IFR fog
development, mainly right around daybreak Wednesday, have not
mentioned in the TAF at this time, and will defer to later shifts
to make the call if model trends are maintained. Northwesterly
winds this afternoon are expected to become light and variable
overnight, and then become southerly on Wednesday, and while
showers and thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday afternoon,
uncertainties in timing/coverage preclude mention in the current
TAF.

JP

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 022055
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
355 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

A weak area of high pressure was centered over northeast KS and
attempting to push some drier air into our region currently.
Dewpoints have slipped into the lower 60s across northern MO but the
drier air has been less effective elsewhere where dewpoints remain
near 70.  An expansive area of low stratus clouds existed this
morning but has since dissipated.

Clouds are expected to continue to exit or dissipate heading into
the evening hours and with the weak area of high pressure building
in and minimal continued dry air advection once the winds become
near calm, we are expecting fog to develop over the still wet to
nearly saturated ground for many locations in southwest IL and
extending back up the I-70 corridor into MO.

It still looks like nocturnal convection will get going with
development of the low level jet, but will be well west of our area
and will take much, if not all, of the night to get close to central
MO.  Backed off on PoPs as a result thru 12z/Wed.

Favored the cooler MOS temps due to anticipated fog development at
most locations.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

What does develop tonight still looks on track to eventually advance
eastward into our region on Wednesday but will probably weaken and
redevelop to some extent with the heating of the day as it slowly
progresses thru.  Backed off on timing a bit with most areas
probably seeing their best chances for rain on Wednesday afternoon
versus the morning.

Lessening chances for rain will then be seen heading into Wednesday
night, especially into MO, as the leftover convection from the
daytime limps into IL.

Thursday through Friday still on track to be well above average for
temps, with Thursday looking increasingly likely it will need a heat
headline and this may extend into Friday.  Friday will depend on how
fast an approaching cold front, and its associated rain, work into
the area.

Best chances for rain rest of the week look to be what develops
along this late week front:  Friday afternoon and night.

Behind the front, we are still looking at a nice period of below
average temps for Saturday thru Monday with dry wx.   Temps will
rebound some with rain chances returning on Tuesday.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

Celings across the area have been slow to improve today, and while
KUIN has gone VFR, MVFR ceilings are still affecting KCOU, KSUS,
KSTL, and KCPS. Expect improvement early this afternoon within an
hour or two of TAF valid time, with ceilings becoming scattered
VFR and then clearing after sunset this evening. With clear skies
expected overnight, attention then turns to potential fog
development. Currently, it looks like metro TAF sites as well as
KCOU have a better chance to see fog, given extra available
boundary layer moisture due to recent rainfall. Have introduced a
few hours of MVFR fog for the aforementioned locations for the
late overnight/early morning time frame, and a brief window of IFR
for KSUS. Otherwise, northwesterly winds today will become light
and variable overnight, and then become southerly on Wednesday as a
front lifts northward through the area. Showers/thunderstorms are
possible area-wide on Wednesday afternoon as well, though
uncertainties in timing/coverage preclude mention in the current
TAF.

Specifics for KSTL:

MVFR ceilings are expected to improve to scattered VFR within an
hour or two of the valid TAF period this afternoon, and then clear
after sunset later this evening. Given clear skies and ample
boundary layer moisture, have included mention of MVFR fog for
several hours during the late overnight/early morning time frame.
While 12Z models indicate the potential for some IFR fog
development, mainly right around daybreak Wednesday, have not
mentioned in the TAF at this time, and will defer to later shifts
to make the call if model trends are maintained. Northwesterly
winds this afternoon are expected to become light and variable
overnight, and then become southerly on Wednesday, and while
showers and thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday afternoon,
uncertainties in timing/coverage preclude mention in the current
TAF.

JP

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 022055
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
355 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

A weak area of high pressure was centered over northeast KS and
attempting to push some drier air into our region currently.
Dewpoints have slipped into the lower 60s across northern MO but the
drier air has been less effective elsewhere where dewpoints remain
near 70.  An expansive area of low stratus clouds existed this
morning but has since dissipated.

Clouds are expected to continue to exit or dissipate heading into
the evening hours and with the weak area of high pressure building
in and minimal continued dry air advection once the winds become
near calm, we are expecting fog to develop over the still wet to
nearly saturated ground for many locations in southwest IL and
extending back up the I-70 corridor into MO.

It still looks like nocturnal convection will get going with
development of the low level jet, but will be well west of our area
and will take much, if not all, of the night to get close to central
MO.  Backed off on PoPs as a result thru 12z/Wed.

Favored the cooler MOS temps due to anticipated fog development at
most locations.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

What does develop tonight still looks on track to eventually advance
eastward into our region on Wednesday but will probably weaken and
redevelop to some extent with the heating of the day as it slowly
progresses thru.  Backed off on timing a bit with most areas
probably seeing their best chances for rain on Wednesday afternoon
versus the morning.

Lessening chances for rain will then be seen heading into Wednesday
night, especially into MO, as the leftover convection from the
daytime limps into IL.

Thursday through Friday still on track to be well above average for
temps, with Thursday looking increasingly likely it will need a heat
headline and this may extend into Friday.  Friday will depend on how
fast an approaching cold front, and its associated rain, work into
the area.

Best chances for rain rest of the week look to be what develops
along this late week front:  Friday afternoon and night.

Behind the front, we are still looking at a nice period of below
average temps for Saturday thru Monday with dry wx.   Temps will
rebound some with rain chances returning on Tuesday.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

Celings across the area have been slow to improve today, and while
KUIN has gone VFR, MVFR ceilings are still affecting KCOU, KSUS,
KSTL, and KCPS. Expect improvement early this afternoon within an
hour or two of TAF valid time, with ceilings becoming scattered
VFR and then clearing after sunset this evening. With clear skies
expected overnight, attention then turns to potential fog
development. Currently, it looks like metro TAF sites as well as
KCOU have a better chance to see fog, given extra available
boundary layer moisture due to recent rainfall. Have introduced a
few hours of MVFR fog for the aforementioned locations for the
late overnight/early morning time frame, and a brief window of IFR
for KSUS. Otherwise, northwesterly winds today will become light
and variable overnight, and then become southerly on Wednesday as a
front lifts northward through the area. Showers/thunderstorms are
possible area-wide on Wednesday afternoon as well, though
uncertainties in timing/coverage preclude mention in the current
TAF.

Specifics for KSTL:

MVFR ceilings are expected to improve to scattered VFR within an
hour or two of the valid TAF period this afternoon, and then clear
after sunset later this evening. Given clear skies and ample
boundary layer moisture, have included mention of MVFR fog for
several hours during the late overnight/early morning time frame.
While 12Z models indicate the potential for some IFR fog
development, mainly right around daybreak Wednesday, have not
mentioned in the TAF at this time, and will defer to later shifts
to make the call if model trends are maintained. Northwesterly
winds this afternoon are expected to become light and variable
overnight, and then become southerly on Wednesday, and while
showers and thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday afternoon,
uncertainties in timing/coverage preclude mention in the current
TAF.

JP

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 022055
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
355 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

A weak area of high pressure was centered over northeast KS and
attempting to push some drier air into our region currently.
Dewpoints have slipped into the lower 60s across northern MO but the
drier air has been less effective elsewhere where dewpoints remain
near 70.  An expansive area of low stratus clouds existed this
morning but has since dissipated.

Clouds are expected to continue to exit or dissipate heading into
the evening hours and with the weak area of high pressure building
in and minimal continued dry air advection once the winds become
near calm, we are expecting fog to develop over the still wet to
nearly saturated ground for many locations in southwest IL and
extending back up the I-70 corridor into MO.

It still looks like nocturnal convection will get going with
development of the low level jet, but will be well west of our area
and will take much, if not all, of the night to get close to central
MO.  Backed off on PoPs as a result thru 12z/Wed.

Favored the cooler MOS temps due to anticipated fog development at
most locations.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

What does develop tonight still looks on track to eventually advance
eastward into our region on Wednesday but will probably weaken and
redevelop to some extent with the heating of the day as it slowly
progresses thru.  Backed off on timing a bit with most areas
probably seeing their best chances for rain on Wednesday afternoon
versus the morning.

Lessening chances for rain will then be seen heading into Wednesday
night, especially into MO, as the leftover convection from the
daytime limps into IL.

Thursday through Friday still on track to be well above average for
temps, with Thursday looking increasingly likely it will need a heat
headline and this may extend into Friday.  Friday will depend on how
fast an approaching cold front, and its associated rain, work into
the area.

Best chances for rain rest of the week look to be what develops
along this late week front:  Friday afternoon and night.

Behind the front, we are still looking at a nice period of below
average temps for Saturday thru Monday with dry wx.   Temps will
rebound some with rain chances returning on Tuesday.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

Celings across the area have been slow to improve today, and while
KUIN has gone VFR, MVFR ceilings are still affecting KCOU, KSUS,
KSTL, and KCPS. Expect improvement early this afternoon within an
hour or two of TAF valid time, with ceilings becoming scattered
VFR and then clearing after sunset this evening. With clear skies
expected overnight, attention then turns to potential fog
development. Currently, it looks like metro TAF sites as well as
KCOU have a better chance to see fog, given extra available
boundary layer moisture due to recent rainfall. Have introduced a
few hours of MVFR fog for the aforementioned locations for the
late overnight/early morning time frame, and a brief window of IFR
for KSUS. Otherwise, northwesterly winds today will become light
and variable overnight, and then become southerly on Wednesday as a
front lifts northward through the area. Showers/thunderstorms are
possible area-wide on Wednesday afternoon as well, though
uncertainties in timing/coverage preclude mention in the current
TAF.

Specifics for KSTL:

MVFR ceilings are expected to improve to scattered VFR within an
hour or two of the valid TAF period this afternoon, and then clear
after sunset later this evening. Given clear skies and ample
boundary layer moisture, have included mention of MVFR fog for
several hours during the late overnight/early morning time frame.
While 12Z models indicate the potential for some IFR fog
development, mainly right around daybreak Wednesday, have not
mentioned in the TAF at this time, and will defer to later shifts
to make the call if model trends are maintained. Northwesterly
winds this afternoon are expected to become light and variable
overnight, and then become southerly on Wednesday, and while
showers and thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday afternoon,
uncertainties in timing/coverage preclude mention in the current
TAF.

JP

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KEAX 022039
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
339 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Warm front lifting through the area this evening will bring a return
to summer-like heat tomorrow and Thursday. Warm air advection
associated with the front could bring a few elevated thunderstorms to
eastern KS and western MO toward sunrise as a 35-kt low-level jet
noses into the region. Upper-level support will be quite weak and
forcing ahead of the low-level jet will not be terribly focused, so
conditions do not appear favorable for widespread thunderstorms or
heavy rain with this activity. However, with MUCAPE values as high as
2500 J/kg a couple of the stronger updrafts could produce some small
hail tomorrow morning. This activity should gradually thin out
through the day as it pushes into central MO, but continued warm air
advection/isentropic lift and increasing instability could allow for
some straggling storms into the early afternoon. Due to the
possibility of clouds and a couple of storms lingering into the
afternoon, highs were nudged down slightly into the upper 80s to near
90.

By Thursday clearing skies and 850 hPa temps rising to as high as 24C
should allow surface temperatures to rise into the lower to middle
90s across the forecast area. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, this
will likely lead to afternoon heat index values in the 99 to 103
range, particularly over north central Missouri where there could be
a bit of moisture pooling ahead of an advancing cold front.

A fairly significant late summer/early fall cold front will swing
through the area Thursday night and Friday with a good chance for
showers and thunderstorms along and behind it. Parameters at this
time do not appear supportive of widespread heavy rain or strong
storms with this activity, but wouldn`t be surprised if some areas
picked up between a half inch and an inch of rain.

Conditions behind this front look fantastic for the upcoming weekend
with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 70s. Pattern then gets more
active heading into early next week as the front retreats northward
and interacts with a deeper upper-level trough digging into the
Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Moisture remnant from this morning`s low clouds and fog is beginning
to lift into a scattered MVFR deck. Bases of these should lift above
2000 feet in the next hour or two, but can`t rule out some broken
cigs below this level through this time. Expect scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop late tonight in advance of a warm front.
Coverage expected to be about 30 to 40 percent across the western
MO/eastern KS region, so will go with a vicinity group at this point.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel






000
FXUS63 KEAX 022039
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
339 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Warm front lifting through the area this evening will bring a return
to summer-like heat tomorrow and Thursday. Warm air advection
associated with the front could bring a few elevated thunderstorms to
eastern KS and western MO toward sunrise as a 35-kt low-level jet
noses into the region. Upper-level support will be quite weak and
forcing ahead of the low-level jet will not be terribly focused, so
conditions do not appear favorable for widespread thunderstorms or
heavy rain with this activity. However, with MUCAPE values as high as
2500 J/kg a couple of the stronger updrafts could produce some small
hail tomorrow morning. This activity should gradually thin out
through the day as it pushes into central MO, but continued warm air
advection/isentropic lift and increasing instability could allow for
some straggling storms into the early afternoon. Due to the
possibility of clouds and a couple of storms lingering into the
afternoon, highs were nudged down slightly into the upper 80s to near
90.

By Thursday clearing skies and 850 hPa temps rising to as high as 24C
should allow surface temperatures to rise into the lower to middle
90s across the forecast area. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, this
will likely lead to afternoon heat index values in the 99 to 103
range, particularly over north central Missouri where there could be
a bit of moisture pooling ahead of an advancing cold front.

A fairly significant late summer/early fall cold front will swing
through the area Thursday night and Friday with a good chance for
showers and thunderstorms along and behind it. Parameters at this
time do not appear supportive of widespread heavy rain or strong
storms with this activity, but wouldn`t be surprised if some areas
picked up between a half inch and an inch of rain.

Conditions behind this front look fantastic for the upcoming weekend
with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 70s. Pattern then gets more
active heading into early next week as the front retreats northward
and interacts with a deeper upper-level trough digging into the
Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Moisture remnant from this morning`s low clouds and fog is beginning
to lift into a scattered MVFR deck. Bases of these should lift above
2000 feet in the next hour or two, but can`t rule out some broken
cigs below this level through this time. Expect scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop late tonight in advance of a warm front.
Coverage expected to be about 30 to 40 percent across the western
MO/eastern KS region, so will go with a vicinity group at this point.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KSGF 021946
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
246 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Remnant outflow boundary now extending from central Oklahoma into
central Arkansas and this is where showers and a few thunderstorms
persist. Visible satellite imagery shows extensive cloud cover
across the region, with some signs of thinning/eroding across
eastern Kansas into western Missouri.  Models prog aforementioned boundary to
lift back northward tonight as a warm front. Nocturnal low level jet
is expected to develop over Oklahoma and Kansas with both the GFS
and NAM developing convection on the nose of the jet over Kansas
late tonight then pushing it northeastward into central and eastern
Missouri on Wednesday. Deep layer shear strongest over Kansas with
weaker shear values as you head into Missouri and thus not
expecting any severe weather. Cannot rule out a few light showers this
evening across the Ozarks and will cover this with lower end
probabilities and higher chance probabilities later tonight into
Wednesday as low level jet impinges on frontal boundary.

Humid conditions expected for Wednesday as surface dew points
expected to reach the lower 70s. This combined with temperatures in
the upper 80s to lower 90s will push heat index values in the mid
and upper 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

A brief dry period is expected Thursday before a shortwave trough
translates along the Canadian border driving a cold front southward
into the region Friday. This front will bring rain chances back to
the area for Friday and Saturday. Of more significance is much
cooler and less humid air in its wake for the weekend. 850mb temperatures
fall back into the middle teens for Saturday and Sunday. This will
bring slightly below normal temperatures with highs mainly in the
upper 70s and lower 80s. Any rain looks to exit the area early
Sunday with cool high pressure then in control for the remainder of
Sunday.

Medium range models do diverge somewhat in their solutions for
Monday and Tuesday. GFS much quicker with return flow bring rain
chances back into the picture as early as Monday, while the ECMWF
hold back until later Tuesday. With these differences went with the
model consensus for probabilities.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 127 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

diminishing showers have left cloud cover across the region. While
the region is expected o remain overcast trough the forecast
period, ceilings should be VFR. A few showers or periods of light
rain will also be possible late in the evening and during the
overnight hours as additional convection develops across eastern
Kansas and shift east into the Ozarks. This activity will be on a
waning trend as it moves into the Ozarks though. A period of MVFR
visibilities is anticipated for Wednesday morning as cool
temperatures move over saturated ground. The limitations to
visibility will improve quickly however.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Hatch






000
FXUS63 KSGF 021838
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
138 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 127 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

The slow moving cold front that brought heavy rainfall to much of
the Ozarks over had moved south of the region this morning. only a
few lingering shower were still impacting portions of south
central Missouri early this afternoon. While the rain had shifted
south of the area, the residual cloud cover is helping to keep
temperatures from climbing very quickly.

Most locations were only in the middle 60s to middle 70s at 1 pm.
As a result of the persistent rainfall south of the region and the
expected continuation of the cloud cover over the region, have
knock from 5-8 degrees off of this afternoons forecast high
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Showers and thunderstorms continue to sag southward early this
morning across from extreme southeastern Kansas and far southern
Missouri. Expect this trend to continue as the low level gradually
veers and a minor shortwave traverses to the east. The flash flood
risk will continue early this morning generally south of highway
60.

Expect most if not all of the activity to diminish by midday but
cannot rule additional development this afternoon mainly from
southeastern Kansas into far southern Missouri in closer proximity
to the residual outflow boundary.

This boundary will lift north tonight as a warm front as the low
level jet once again asserts itself. Expect scattered convection
to develop tonight on the nose of this low level jet as it
interacts with the warm front. It appears development will be
focused from southeastern Kansas into central Missouri. A few
strong storms along with locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Very warm and humid weather will return Wednesday through Friday
as the upper level ridge expands northward. Cannot rule out lingering
isolated convection Wednesday mainly from central Missouri into
the eastern Ozarks as as the warm front lifts north of the area.

A shortwave trough tracking east along the Canadian border will
push a cold front southward into the region Friday. This will
result in an increasing chance for showers an thunderstorms. The
chance of showers will persist into part of Saturday as the front
pushes to the south.

A much cooler and drier airmass will overspread the region behind
the front this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 127 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

diminishing showers have left cloud cover across the region. While
the region is expected o remain overcast trough the forecast
period, ceilings should be VFR. A few showers or periods of light
rain will also be possible late in the evening and during the
overnight hours as additional convection develops across eastern
Kansas and shift east into the Ozarks. This activity will be on a
waning trend as it moves into the Ozarks though. A period of MVFR
visibilities is anticipated for Wednesday morning as cool
temperatures move over saturated ground. The limitations to
visibility will improve quickly however.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hatch
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Hatch









000
FXUS63 KSGF 021838
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
138 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 127 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

The slow moving cold front that brought heavy rainfall to much of
the Ozarks over had moved south of the region this morning. only a
few lingering shower were still impacting portions of south
central Missouri early this afternoon. While the rain had shifted
south of the area, the residual cloud cover is helping to keep
temperatures from climbing very quickly.

Most locations were only in the middle 60s to middle 70s at 1 pm.
As a result of the persistent rainfall south of the region and the
expected continuation of the cloud cover over the region, have
knock from 5-8 degrees off of this afternoons forecast high
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Showers and thunderstorms continue to sag southward early this
morning across from extreme southeastern Kansas and far southern
Missouri. Expect this trend to continue as the low level gradually
veers and a minor shortwave traverses to the east. The flash flood
risk will continue early this morning generally south of highway
60.

Expect most if not all of the activity to diminish by midday but
cannot rule additional development this afternoon mainly from
southeastern Kansas into far southern Missouri in closer proximity
to the residual outflow boundary.

This boundary will lift north tonight as a warm front as the low
level jet once again asserts itself. Expect scattered convection
to develop tonight on the nose of this low level jet as it
interacts with the warm front. It appears development will be
focused from southeastern Kansas into central Missouri. A few
strong storms along with locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Very warm and humid weather will return Wednesday through Friday
as the upper level ridge expands northward. Cannot rule out lingering
isolated convection Wednesday mainly from central Missouri into
the eastern Ozarks as as the warm front lifts north of the area.

A shortwave trough tracking east along the Canadian border will
push a cold front southward into the region Friday. This will
result in an increasing chance for showers an thunderstorms. The
chance of showers will persist into part of Saturday as the front
pushes to the south.

A much cooler and drier airmass will overspread the region behind
the front this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 127 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

diminishing showers have left cloud cover across the region. While
the region is expected o remain overcast trough the forecast
period, ceilings should be VFR. A few showers or periods of light
rain will also be possible late in the evening and during the
overnight hours as additional convection develops across eastern
Kansas and shift east into the Ozarks. This activity will be on a
waning trend as it moves into the Ozarks though. A period of MVFR
visibilities is anticipated for Wednesday morning as cool
temperatures move over saturated ground. The limitations to
visibility will improve quickly however.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hatch
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Hatch









000
FXUS63 KSGF 021838
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
138 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 127 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

The slow moving cold front that brought heavy rainfall to much of
the Ozarks over had moved south of the region this morning. only a
few lingering shower were still impacting portions of south
central Missouri early this afternoon. While the rain had shifted
south of the area, the residual cloud cover is helping to keep
temperatures from climbing very quickly.

Most locations were only in the middle 60s to middle 70s at 1 pm.
As a result of the persistent rainfall south of the region and the
expected continuation of the cloud cover over the region, have
knock from 5-8 degrees off of this afternoons forecast high
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Showers and thunderstorms continue to sag southward early this
morning across from extreme southeastern Kansas and far southern
Missouri. Expect this trend to continue as the low level gradually
veers and a minor shortwave traverses to the east. The flash flood
risk will continue early this morning generally south of highway
60.

Expect most if not all of the activity to diminish by midday but
cannot rule additional development this afternoon mainly from
southeastern Kansas into far southern Missouri in closer proximity
to the residual outflow boundary.

This boundary will lift north tonight as a warm front as the low
level jet once again asserts itself. Expect scattered convection
to develop tonight on the nose of this low level jet as it
interacts with the warm front. It appears development will be
focused from southeastern Kansas into central Missouri. A few
strong storms along with locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Very warm and humid weather will return Wednesday through Friday
as the upper level ridge expands northward. Cannot rule out lingering
isolated convection Wednesday mainly from central Missouri into
the eastern Ozarks as as the warm front lifts north of the area.

A shortwave trough tracking east along the Canadian border will
push a cold front southward into the region Friday. This will
result in an increasing chance for showers an thunderstorms. The
chance of showers will persist into part of Saturday as the front
pushes to the south.

A much cooler and drier airmass will overspread the region behind
the front this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 127 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

diminishing showers have left cloud cover across the region. While
the region is expected o remain overcast trough the forecast
period, ceilings should be VFR. A few showers or periods of light
rain will also be possible late in the evening and during the
overnight hours as additional convection develops across eastern
Kansas and shift east into the Ozarks. This activity will be on a
waning trend as it moves into the Ozarks though. A period of MVFR
visibilities is anticipated for Wednesday morning as cool
temperatures move over saturated ground. The limitations to
visibility will improve quickly however.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hatch
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Hatch









000
FXUS63 KSGF 021838
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
138 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 127 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

The slow moving cold front that brought heavy rainfall to much of
the Ozarks over had moved south of the region this morning. only a
few lingering shower were still impacting portions of south
central Missouri early this afternoon. While the rain had shifted
south of the area, the residual cloud cover is helping to keep
temperatures from climbing very quickly.

Most locations were only in the middle 60s to middle 70s at 1 pm.
As a result of the persistent rainfall south of the region and the
expected continuation of the cloud cover over the region, have
knock from 5-8 degrees off of this afternoons forecast high
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Showers and thunderstorms continue to sag southward early this
morning across from extreme southeastern Kansas and far southern
Missouri. Expect this trend to continue as the low level gradually
veers and a minor shortwave traverses to the east. The flash flood
risk will continue early this morning generally south of highway
60.

Expect most if not all of the activity to diminish by midday but
cannot rule additional development this afternoon mainly from
southeastern Kansas into far southern Missouri in closer proximity
to the residual outflow boundary.

This boundary will lift north tonight as a warm front as the low
level jet once again asserts itself. Expect scattered convection
to develop tonight on the nose of this low level jet as it
interacts with the warm front. It appears development will be
focused from southeastern Kansas into central Missouri. A few
strong storms along with locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Very warm and humid weather will return Wednesday through Friday
as the upper level ridge expands northward. Cannot rule out lingering
isolated convection Wednesday mainly from central Missouri into
the eastern Ozarks as as the warm front lifts north of the area.

A shortwave trough tracking east along the Canadian border will
push a cold front southward into the region Friday. This will
result in an increasing chance for showers an thunderstorms. The
chance of showers will persist into part of Saturday as the front
pushes to the south.

A much cooler and drier airmass will overspread the region behind
the front this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 127 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

diminishing showers have left cloud cover across the region. While
the region is expected o remain overcast trough the forecast
period, ceilings should be VFR. A few showers or periods of light
rain will also be possible late in the evening and during the
overnight hours as additional convection develops across eastern
Kansas and shift east into the Ozarks. This activity will be on a
waning trend as it moves into the Ozarks though. A period of MVFR
visibilities is anticipated for Wednesday morning as cool
temperatures move over saturated ground. The limitations to
visibility will improve quickly however.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hatch
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Hatch









000
FXUS63 KLSX 021745
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1245 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Wednesday night)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

Early morning SH/TS expected to continue pushing east and south with
the sinking synoptic boundary and a veering LLJ. The Flash Flood
Watch has been canceled early for the counties where rain has
already ended. Additional counties may be canceled over the next few
hours based on radar trends.

After a lull in SH/TS over most of the area for today (except
possibly across the southern CWA in closer proximity to outflow
boundaries and in the higher terrain of the eastern Ozarks),
precipitation chances increase again late tonight and tomorrow as
the quasistationary frontal boundary lifts back northeastward as a
warm front and a southwesterly LLJ begins to interact with it.
Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

An approaching cold front will bring the next chance of SH/TS to
the area late this week, however the best dynamics are forecast to
remain north of the CWA.

Expect warm temperatures (80s-90s) through the end of the week
followed by a rapid cool-down on Sat. The warmest day of the week
will probably be on Thursday after the passage of a warm front on
the previous day and in the absence of widespread precip/cloud
cover along with H85 temperatures increasing to 20-22 deg C. The
coolest days will probably be on Saturday and Sunday behind a cold
front. The cooler weather might even last into Monday. Expect
highs to be around 10 degrees cooler on Saturday compared to
Friday.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

Celings across the area have been slow to improve today, and while
KUIN has gone VFR, MVFR ceilings are still affecting KCOU, KSUS,
KSTL, and KCPS. Expect improvement early this afternoon within an
hour or two of TAF valid time, with ceilings becoming scattered
VFR and then clearing after sunset this evening. With clear skies
expected overnight, attention then turns to potential fog
development. Currently, it looks like metro TAF sites as well as
KCOU have a better chance to see fog, given extra available
boundary layer moisture due to recent rainfall. Have introduced a
few hours of MVFR fog for the aforementioned locations for the
late overnight/early morning time frame, and a brief window of IFR
for KSUS. Otherwise, northwesterly winds today will become light
and variable overnight, and then become southerly on Wednesday as a
front lifts northward through the area. Showers/thunderstorms are
possible area-wide on Wednesday afternoon as well, though
uncertainties in timing/coverage preclude mention in the current
TAF.

Specifics for KSTL:

MVFR ceilings are expected to improve to scattered VFR within an
hour or two of the valid TAF period this afternoon, and then clear
after sunset later this evening. Given clear skies and ample
boundary layer moisture, have included mention of MVFR fog for
several hours during the late overnight/early morning time frame.
While 12Z models indicate the potential for some IFR fog
development, mainly right around daybreak Wednesday, have not
mentioned in the TAF at this time, and will defer to later shifts
to make the call if model trends are maintained. Northwesterly
winds this afternoon are expected to become light and variable
overnight, and then become southerly on Wednesday, and while
showers and thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday afternoon,
uncertainties in timing/coverage preclude mention in the current
TAF.

JP

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 021745
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1245 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Wednesday night)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

Early morning SH/TS expected to continue pushing east and south with
the sinking synoptic boundary and a veering LLJ. The Flash Flood
Watch has been canceled early for the counties where rain has
already ended. Additional counties may be canceled over the next few
hours based on radar trends.

After a lull in SH/TS over most of the area for today (except
possibly across the southern CWA in closer proximity to outflow
boundaries and in the higher terrain of the eastern Ozarks),
precipitation chances increase again late tonight and tomorrow as
the quasistationary frontal boundary lifts back northeastward as a
warm front and a southwesterly LLJ begins to interact with it.
Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

An approaching cold front will bring the next chance of SH/TS to
the area late this week, however the best dynamics are forecast to
remain north of the CWA.

Expect warm temperatures (80s-90s) through the end of the week
followed by a rapid cool-down on Sat. The warmest day of the week
will probably be on Thursday after the passage of a warm front on
the previous day and in the absence of widespread precip/cloud
cover along with H85 temperatures increasing to 20-22 deg C. The
coolest days will probably be on Saturday and Sunday behind a cold
front. The cooler weather might even last into Monday. Expect
highs to be around 10 degrees cooler on Saturday compared to
Friday.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

Celings across the area have been slow to improve today, and while
KUIN has gone VFR, MVFR ceilings are still affecting KCOU, KSUS,
KSTL, and KCPS. Expect improvement early this afternoon within an
hour or two of TAF valid time, with ceilings becoming scattered
VFR and then clearing after sunset this evening. With clear skies
expected overnight, attention then turns to potential fog
development. Currently, it looks like metro TAF sites as well as
KCOU have a better chance to see fog, given extra available
boundary layer moisture due to recent rainfall. Have introduced a
few hours of MVFR fog for the aforementioned locations for the
late overnight/early morning time frame, and a brief window of IFR
for KSUS. Otherwise, northwesterly winds today will become light
and variable overnight, and then become southerly on Wednesday as a
front lifts northward through the area. Showers/thunderstorms are
possible area-wide on Wednesday afternoon as well, though
uncertainties in timing/coverage preclude mention in the current
TAF.

Specifics for KSTL:

MVFR ceilings are expected to improve to scattered VFR within an
hour or two of the valid TAF period this afternoon, and then clear
after sunset later this evening. Given clear skies and ample
boundary layer moisture, have included mention of MVFR fog for
several hours during the late overnight/early morning time frame.
While 12Z models indicate the potential for some IFR fog
development, mainly right around daybreak Wednesday, have not
mentioned in the TAF at this time, and will defer to later shifts
to make the call if model trends are maintained. Northwesterly
winds this afternoon are expected to become light and variable
overnight, and then become southerly on Wednesday, and while
showers and thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday afternoon,
uncertainties in timing/coverage preclude mention in the current
TAF.

JP

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 021745
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1245 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Wednesday night)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

Early morning SH/TS expected to continue pushing east and south with
the sinking synoptic boundary and a veering LLJ. The Flash Flood
Watch has been canceled early for the counties where rain has
already ended. Additional counties may be canceled over the next few
hours based on radar trends.

After a lull in SH/TS over most of the area for today (except
possibly across the southern CWA in closer proximity to outflow
boundaries and in the higher terrain of the eastern Ozarks),
precipitation chances increase again late tonight and tomorrow as
the quasistationary frontal boundary lifts back northeastward as a
warm front and a southwesterly LLJ begins to interact with it.
Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

An approaching cold front will bring the next chance of SH/TS to
the area late this week, however the best dynamics are forecast to
remain north of the CWA.

Expect warm temperatures (80s-90s) through the end of the week
followed by a rapid cool-down on Sat. The warmest day of the week
will probably be on Thursday after the passage of a warm front on
the previous day and in the absence of widespread precip/cloud
cover along with H85 temperatures increasing to 20-22 deg C. The
coolest days will probably be on Saturday and Sunday behind a cold
front. The cooler weather might even last into Monday. Expect
highs to be around 10 degrees cooler on Saturday compared to
Friday.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

Celings across the area have been slow to improve today, and while
KUIN has gone VFR, MVFR ceilings are still affecting KCOU, KSUS,
KSTL, and KCPS. Expect improvement early this afternoon within an
hour or two of TAF valid time, with ceilings becoming scattered
VFR and then clearing after sunset this evening. With clear skies
expected overnight, attention then turns to potential fog
development. Currently, it looks like metro TAF sites as well as
KCOU have a better chance to see fog, given extra available
boundary layer moisture due to recent rainfall. Have introduced a
few hours of MVFR fog for the aforementioned locations for the
late overnight/early morning time frame, and a brief window of IFR
for KSUS. Otherwise, northwesterly winds today will become light
and variable overnight, and then become southerly on Wednesday as a
front lifts northward through the area. Showers/thunderstorms are
possible area-wide on Wednesday afternoon as well, though
uncertainties in timing/coverage preclude mention in the current
TAF.

Specifics for KSTL:

MVFR ceilings are expected to improve to scattered VFR within an
hour or two of the valid TAF period this afternoon, and then clear
after sunset later this evening. Given clear skies and ample
boundary layer moisture, have included mention of MVFR fog for
several hours during the late overnight/early morning time frame.
While 12Z models indicate the potential for some IFR fog
development, mainly right around daybreak Wednesday, have not
mentioned in the TAF at this time, and will defer to later shifts
to make the call if model trends are maintained. Northwesterly
winds this afternoon are expected to become light and variable
overnight, and then become southerly on Wednesday, and while
showers and thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday afternoon,
uncertainties in timing/coverage preclude mention in the current
TAF.

JP

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 021745
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1245 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Wednesday night)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

Early morning SH/TS expected to continue pushing east and south with
the sinking synoptic boundary and a veering LLJ. The Flash Flood
Watch has been canceled early for the counties where rain has
already ended. Additional counties may be canceled over the next few
hours based on radar trends.

After a lull in SH/TS over most of the area for today (except
possibly across the southern CWA in closer proximity to outflow
boundaries and in the higher terrain of the eastern Ozarks),
precipitation chances increase again late tonight and tomorrow as
the quasistationary frontal boundary lifts back northeastward as a
warm front and a southwesterly LLJ begins to interact with it.
Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

An approaching cold front will bring the next chance of SH/TS to
the area late this week, however the best dynamics are forecast to
remain north of the CWA.

Expect warm temperatures (80s-90s) through the end of the week
followed by a rapid cool-down on Sat. The warmest day of the week
will probably be on Thursday after the passage of a warm front on
the previous day and in the absence of widespread precip/cloud
cover along with H85 temperatures increasing to 20-22 deg C. The
coolest days will probably be on Saturday and Sunday behind a cold
front. The cooler weather might even last into Monday. Expect
highs to be around 10 degrees cooler on Saturday compared to
Friday.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

Celings across the area have been slow to improve today, and while
KUIN has gone VFR, MVFR ceilings are still affecting KCOU, KSUS,
KSTL, and KCPS. Expect improvement early this afternoon within an
hour or two of TAF valid time, with ceilings becoming scattered
VFR and then clearing after sunset this evening. With clear skies
expected overnight, attention then turns to potential fog
development. Currently, it looks like metro TAF sites as well as
KCOU have a better chance to see fog, given extra available
boundary layer moisture due to recent rainfall. Have introduced a
few hours of MVFR fog for the aforementioned locations for the
late overnight/early morning time frame, and a brief window of IFR
for KSUS. Otherwise, northwesterly winds today will become light
and variable overnight, and then become southerly on Wednesday as a
front lifts northward through the area. Showers/thunderstorms are
possible area-wide on Wednesday afternoon as well, though
uncertainties in timing/coverage preclude mention in the current
TAF.

Specifics for KSTL:

MVFR ceilings are expected to improve to scattered VFR within an
hour or two of the valid TAF period this afternoon, and then clear
after sunset later this evening. Given clear skies and ample
boundary layer moisture, have included mention of MVFR fog for
several hours during the late overnight/early morning time frame.
While 12Z models indicate the potential for some IFR fog
development, mainly right around daybreak Wednesday, have not
mentioned in the TAF at this time, and will defer to later shifts
to make the call if model trends are maintained. Northwesterly
winds this afternoon are expected to become light and variable
overnight, and then become southerly on Wednesday, and while
showers and thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday afternoon,
uncertainties in timing/coverage preclude mention in the current
TAF.

JP

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 021737
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1237 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Showers and storms have ended across the CWA this morning, leaving
mainly quiet conditions for much of today. Light fog and scattered
to broken low stratus will continue to filter along the back side of
last night`s precipitation, but should stay patchy in nature this
morning and will gradually dissipate around sunrise.

Temperatures this afternoon will be near to just a degree or two
below normal as northwest flow quickly flattens and surface winds
remain light and variable on the north side of yesterday`s cold
front. As lee side low pressure develops over the High Plains this
afternoon and turns low-level flow back around to the south, the
surface boundary will begin to retreat north and spread a chance of
storms this evening and overnight throughout the CWA. Strong-severe
storms are not expected with weak upper-level flow and no support
for convection other than the surface boundary and a weak LLJ during
the overnight hours, and storms should be scattered in nature. Storm
chances will continue to lift northeast as the boundary treks across
the CWA on Wednesday, before tapering off Wednesday evening. Highs
Wednesday will rise into the lower 90s on the south side of the
front and the upper 80s where frontal passage will occur later,
although precipitation could affect highs if it becomes widespread.
Highs on Thursday will be even warmer as southerly surface flow
increases and 850 hPa temps increase into the 22 to 24 C range,
likely resulting in highs in the lower to mid 90s CWA-wide.

The next chance of precipitation will begin Thursday night as low
pressure traveling along the Canadian border sends a cold front into
the forecast area. Frontal passage should occur slowly as the parent
low travels farther to the east, spreading storm chances through
Friday and possibly in Saturday morning. Much cooler temperatures
are expected this weekend behind the front, potentially resulting in
2 to 3 consecutive days with highs in the 70s Saturday through
Monday. Southerly flow will eventually return near the end of the
forecast period, bringing a return of seasonable temperatures and
low-end chances for storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Moisture remnant from this morning`s low clouds and fog is beginning
to lift into a scattered MVFR deck. Bases of these should lift above
2000 feet in the next hour or two, but can`t rule out some broken
cigs below this level through this time. Expect scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop late tonight in advance of a warm front.
Coverage expected to be about 30 to 40 percent across the western
MO/eastern KS region, so will go with a vicinity group at this point.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KLSX 021152
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
652 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Wednesday night)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

Early morning SH/TS expected to continue pushing east and south with
the sinking synoptic boundary and a veering LLJ. The Flash Flood
Watch has been canceled early for the counties where rain has
already ended. Additional counties may be canceled over the next few
hours based on radar trends.

After a lull in SH/TS over most of the area for today (except
possibly across the southern CWA in closer proximity to outflow
boundaries and in the higher terrain of the eastern Ozarks),
precipitation chances increase again late tonight and tomorrow as
the quasistationary frontal boundary lifts back northeastward as a
warm front and a southwesterly LLJ begins to interact with it.
Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

An approaching cold front will bring the next chance of SH/TS to
the area late this week, however the best dynamics are forecast to
remain north of the CWA.

Expect warm temperatures (80s-90s) through the end of the week
followed by a rapid cool-down on Sat. The warmest day of the week
will probably be on Thursday after the passage of a warm front on
the previous day and in the absence of widespread precip/cloud
cover along with H85 temperatures increasing to 20-22 deg C. The
coolest days will probably be on Saturday and Sunday behind a cold
front. The cooler weather might even last into Monday. Expect
highs to be around 10 degrees cooler on Saturday compared to
Friday.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

A small area of showers and thunderstorms has quickly developed
since 1115z just to the northeast of KSTL. Unless they develop
further to the west southwest I think that all the TAF sites
should be void of precipitation. Areas of IFR and MVFR cigs cover
portions of the area this morning and additional broken MVFR cigs
are forecast to develop this morning before scattering out by
midday. VFR conditions are then expected from the afternoon
through tonight. Will need to keep a close eye on showers and
thunderstorms developing over western MO tonight. Think these will
stay west of KCOU through 12z Wed.

Specifics for KSTL:

A small area of showers and thunderstorms has quickly developed
since 1115z just to the northeast of KSTL. Unless they develop
further to the west southwest I think that a sprinkle is all KSTL
will see over the next hour or so. Otherwise the terminal is
surrounded to the north and east by areas of IFR and MVFR cigs.
Additional broken MVFR cigs are forecast to develop this morning
before scattering out by midday. VFR conditions are then expected
from the afternoon through tonight.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 021152
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
652 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Wednesday night)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

Early morning SH/TS expected to continue pushing east and south with
the sinking synoptic boundary and a veering LLJ. The Flash Flood
Watch has been canceled early for the counties where rain has
already ended. Additional counties may be canceled over the next few
hours based on radar trends.

After a lull in SH/TS over most of the area for today (except
possibly across the southern CWA in closer proximity to outflow
boundaries and in the higher terrain of the eastern Ozarks),
precipitation chances increase again late tonight and tomorrow as
the quasistationary frontal boundary lifts back northeastward as a
warm front and a southwesterly LLJ begins to interact with it.
Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

An approaching cold front will bring the next chance of SH/TS to
the area late this week, however the best dynamics are forecast to
remain north of the CWA.

Expect warm temperatures (80s-90s) through the end of the week
followed by a rapid cool-down on Sat. The warmest day of the week
will probably be on Thursday after the passage of a warm front on
the previous day and in the absence of widespread precip/cloud
cover along with H85 temperatures increasing to 20-22 deg C. The
coolest days will probably be on Saturday and Sunday behind a cold
front. The cooler weather might even last into Monday. Expect
highs to be around 10 degrees cooler on Saturday compared to
Friday.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

A small area of showers and thunderstorms has quickly developed
since 1115z just to the northeast of KSTL. Unless they develop
further to the west southwest I think that all the TAF sites
should be void of precipitation. Areas of IFR and MVFR cigs cover
portions of the area this morning and additional broken MVFR cigs
are forecast to develop this morning before scattering out by
midday. VFR conditions are then expected from the afternoon
through tonight. Will need to keep a close eye on showers and
thunderstorms developing over western MO tonight. Think these will
stay west of KCOU through 12z Wed.

Specifics for KSTL:

A small area of showers and thunderstorms has quickly developed
since 1115z just to the northeast of KSTL. Unless they develop
further to the west southwest I think that a sprinkle is all KSTL
will see over the next hour or so. Otherwise the terminal is
surrounded to the north and east by areas of IFR and MVFR cigs.
Additional broken MVFR cigs are forecast to develop this morning
before scattering out by midday. VFR conditions are then expected
from the afternoon through tonight.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 021133
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
633 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Showers and storms have ended across the CWA this morning, leaving
mainly quiet conditions for much of today. Light fog and scattered
to broken low stratus will continue to filter along the back side of
last night`s precipitation, but should stay patchy in nature this
morning and will gradually dissipate around sunrise.

Temperatures this afternoon will be near to just a degree or two
below normal as northwest flow quickly flattens and surface winds
remain light and variable on the north side of yesterday`s cold
front. As lee side low pressure develops over the High Plains this
afternoon and turns low-level flow back around to the south, the
surface boundary will begin to retreat north and spread a chance of
storms this evening and overnight throughout the CWA. Strong-severe
storms are not expected with weak upper-level flow and no support
for convection other than the surface boundary and a weak LLJ during
the overnight hours, and storms should be scattered in nature. Storm
chances will continue to lift northeast as the boundary treks across
the CWA on Wednesday, before tapering off Wednesday evening. Highs
Wednesday will rise into the lower 90s on the south side of the
front and the upper 80s where frontal passage will occur later,
although precipitation could affect highs if it becomes widespread.
Highs on Thursday will be even warmer as southerly surface flow
increases and 850 hPa temps increase into the 22 to 24 C range,
likely resulting in highs in the lower to mid 90s CWA-wide.

The next chance of precipitation will begin Thursday night as low
pressure traveling along the Canadian border sends a cold front into
the forecast area. Frontal passage should occur slowly as the parent
low travels farther to the east, spreading storm chances through
Friday and possibly in Saturday morning. Much cooler temperatures
are expected this weekend behind the front, potentially resulting in
2 to 3 consecutive days with highs in the 70s Saturday through
Monday. Southerly flow will eventually return near the end of the
forecast period, bringing a return of seasonable temperatures and
low-end chances for storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 633 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

IFR to LIFR stratus and patchy dense fog will continue across the
area this morning, potentially impacting all TAF sites through 14z to
15z. Winds will remain light and variable and upper-level cloud cover
may continue to stream over for the next few hours preventing typical
diurnal mixing after sunrise, so may need to extend the period of
stratus and fog in the TAFs if no trend toward improvement is seen in
a few hours. Once stratus and fog mix out, mainly VFR conditions are
expected. A few thunderstorms may develop this evening or tonight,
but will be widely scattered and may not impact TAF sites.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 021133
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
633 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Showers and storms have ended across the CWA this morning, leaving
mainly quiet conditions for much of today. Light fog and scattered
to broken low stratus will continue to filter along the back side of
last night`s precipitation, but should stay patchy in nature this
morning and will gradually dissipate around sunrise.

Temperatures this afternoon will be near to just a degree or two
below normal as northwest flow quickly flattens and surface winds
remain light and variable on the north side of yesterday`s cold
front. As lee side low pressure develops over the High Plains this
afternoon and turns low-level flow back around to the south, the
surface boundary will begin to retreat north and spread a chance of
storms this evening and overnight throughout the CWA. Strong-severe
storms are not expected with weak upper-level flow and no support
for convection other than the surface boundary and a weak LLJ during
the overnight hours, and storms should be scattered in nature. Storm
chances will continue to lift northeast as the boundary treks across
the CWA on Wednesday, before tapering off Wednesday evening. Highs
Wednesday will rise into the lower 90s on the south side of the
front and the upper 80s where frontal passage will occur later,
although precipitation could affect highs if it becomes widespread.
Highs on Thursday will be even warmer as southerly surface flow
increases and 850 hPa temps increase into the 22 to 24 C range,
likely resulting in highs in the lower to mid 90s CWA-wide.

The next chance of precipitation will begin Thursday night as low
pressure traveling along the Canadian border sends a cold front into
the forecast area. Frontal passage should occur slowly as the parent
low travels farther to the east, spreading storm chances through
Friday and possibly in Saturday morning. Much cooler temperatures
are expected this weekend behind the front, potentially resulting in
2 to 3 consecutive days with highs in the 70s Saturday through
Monday. Southerly flow will eventually return near the end of the
forecast period, bringing a return of seasonable temperatures and
low-end chances for storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 633 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

IFR to LIFR stratus and patchy dense fog will continue across the
area this morning, potentially impacting all TAF sites through 14z to
15z. Winds will remain light and variable and upper-level cloud cover
may continue to stream over for the next few hours preventing typical
diurnal mixing after sunrise, so may need to extend the period of
stratus and fog in the TAFs if no trend toward improvement is seen in
a few hours. Once stratus and fog mix out, mainly VFR conditions are
expected. A few thunderstorms may develop this evening or tonight,
but will be widely scattered and may not impact TAF sites.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KSGF 021132
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
632 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Showers and thunderstorms continue to sag southward early this
morning across from extreme southeastern Kansas and far southern
Missouri. Expect this trend to continue as the low level gradually
veers and a minor shortwave traverses to the east. The flash flood
risk will continue early this morning generally south of highway
60.

Expect most if not all of the activity to diminish by midday but
cannot rule additional development this afternoon mainly from
southeastern Kansas into far southern Missouri in closer proximity
to the residual outflow boundary.

This boundary will lift north tonight as a warm front as the low
level jet once again asserts itself. Expect scattered convection
to develop tonight on the nose of this low level jet as it
interacts with the warm front. It appears development will be
focused from southeastern Kansas into central Missouri. A few
strong storms along with locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Very warm and humid weather will return Wednesday through Friday
as the upper level ridge expands northward. Cannot rule out lingering
isolated convection Wednesday mainly from central Missouri into
the eastern Ozarks as as the warm front lifts north of the area.

A shortwave trough tracking east along the Canadian border will
push a cold front southward into the region Friday. This will
result in an increasing chance for showers an thunderstorms. The
chance of showers will persist into part of Saturday as the front
pushes to the south.

A much cooler and drier airmass will overspread the region behind
the front this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Pilots can expect primarily VFR conditions today and tonight.
Showers and thunderstorms will end across far southern Missouri
this morning. However areas of MVFR ceilings may impact the area
at times through the morning hours. Scattered thunderstorms will
develop again tonight as a warm front lifts north across the
region.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ082-083-088-
     090>096-098-101>103.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Foster






000
FXUS63 KSGF 021132
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
632 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Showers and thunderstorms continue to sag southward early this
morning across from extreme southeastern Kansas and far southern
Missouri. Expect this trend to continue as the low level gradually
veers and a minor shortwave traverses to the east. The flash flood
risk will continue early this morning generally south of highway
60.

Expect most if not all of the activity to diminish by midday but
cannot rule additional development this afternoon mainly from
southeastern Kansas into far southern Missouri in closer proximity
to the residual outflow boundary.

This boundary will lift north tonight as a warm front as the low
level jet once again asserts itself. Expect scattered convection
to develop tonight on the nose of this low level jet as it
interacts with the warm front. It appears development will be
focused from southeastern Kansas into central Missouri. A few
strong storms along with locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Very warm and humid weather will return Wednesday through Friday
as the upper level ridge expands northward. Cannot rule out lingering
isolated convection Wednesday mainly from central Missouri into
the eastern Ozarks as as the warm front lifts north of the area.

A shortwave trough tracking east along the Canadian border will
push a cold front southward into the region Friday. This will
result in an increasing chance for showers an thunderstorms. The
chance of showers will persist into part of Saturday as the front
pushes to the south.

A much cooler and drier airmass will overspread the region behind
the front this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Pilots can expect primarily VFR conditions today and tonight.
Showers and thunderstorms will end across far southern Missouri
this morning. However areas of MVFR ceilings may impact the area
at times through the morning hours. Scattered thunderstorms will
develop again tonight as a warm front lifts north across the
region.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ082-083-088-
     090>096-098-101>103.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KLSX 020857
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
357 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Wednesday night)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

Early morning SH/TS expected to continue pushing east and south with
the sinking synoptic boundary and a veering LLJ. The Flash Flood
Watch has been canceled early for the counties where rain has
already ended. Additional counties may be canceled over the next few
hours based on radar trends.

After a lull in SH/TS over most of the area for today (except
possibly across the southern CWA in closer proximity to outflow
boundaries and in the higher terrain of the eastern Ozarks),
precipitation chances increase again late tonight and tomorrow as
the quasistationary frontal boundary lifts back northeastward as a
warm front and a southwesterly LLJ begins to interact with it.
Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

An approaching cold front will bring the next chance of SH/TS to
the area late this week, however the best dynamics are forecast to
remain north of the CWA.

Expect warm temperatures (80s-90s) through the end of the week
followed by a rapid cool-down on Sat. The warmest day of the week
will probably be on Thursday after the passage of a warm front on
the previous day and in the absence of widespread precip/cloud
cover along with H85 temperatures increasing to 20-22 deg C. The
coolest days will probably be on Saturday and Sunday behind a cold
front. The cooler weather might even last into Monday. Expect
highs to be around 10 degrees cooler on Saturday compared to
Friday.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

MCS complex continues to track to the east across forecast area.
Should see storms taper off over KCOU by 07z and over metro area
after 09z. Did keep mention of showers for a few more hours before
tapering off towards sunrise. As for KUIN, to remain north of
rain. Because of weak boundaries and ridging, winds to remain
light and variable except around storms. Clouds to scatter out by
midday to early afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:
MCS complex continues to track to the east across forecast area.
Should see storms taper off over metro area after 09z. Did keep
mention of showers through 11z before tapering off. Because of
weak boundaries and ridging, winds to remain light and variable
except around storms. Clouds to scatter out by 20z Tuesday.

Byrd

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR Iron MO-
     Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste.
     Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR Bond IL-
     Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
     Montgomery IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 020857
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
357 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Wednesday night)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

Early morning SH/TS expected to continue pushing east and south with
the sinking synoptic boundary and a veering LLJ. The Flash Flood
Watch has been canceled early for the counties where rain has
already ended. Additional counties may be canceled over the next few
hours based on radar trends.

After a lull in SH/TS over most of the area for today (except
possibly across the southern CWA in closer proximity to outflow
boundaries and in the higher terrain of the eastern Ozarks),
precipitation chances increase again late tonight and tomorrow as
the quasistationary frontal boundary lifts back northeastward as a
warm front and a southwesterly LLJ begins to interact with it.
Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

An approaching cold front will bring the next chance of SH/TS to
the area late this week, however the best dynamics are forecast to
remain north of the CWA.

Expect warm temperatures (80s-90s) through the end of the week
followed by a rapid cool-down on Sat. The warmest day of the week
will probably be on Thursday after the passage of a warm front on
the previous day and in the absence of widespread precip/cloud
cover along with H85 temperatures increasing to 20-22 deg C. The
coolest days will probably be on Saturday and Sunday behind a cold
front. The cooler weather might even last into Monday. Expect
highs to be around 10 degrees cooler on Saturday compared to
Friday.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

MCS complex continues to track to the east across forecast area.
Should see storms taper off over KCOU by 07z and over metro area
after 09z. Did keep mention of showers for a few more hours before
tapering off towards sunrise. As for KUIN, to remain north of
rain. Because of weak boundaries and ridging, winds to remain
light and variable except around storms. Clouds to scatter out by
midday to early afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:
MCS complex continues to track to the east across forecast area.
Should see storms taper off over metro area after 09z. Did keep
mention of showers through 11z before tapering off. Because of
weak boundaries and ridging, winds to remain light and variable
except around storms. Clouds to scatter out by 20z Tuesday.

Byrd

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR Iron MO-
     Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste.
     Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR Bond IL-
     Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
     Montgomery IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 020838
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
338 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Showers and storms have ended across the CWA this morning, leaving
mainly quiet conditions for much of today. Light fog and scattered
to broken low stratus will continue to filter along the back side of
last night`s precipitation, but should stay patchy in nature this
morning and will gradually dissipate around sunrise.

Temperatures this afternoon will be near to just a degree or two
below normal as northwest flow quickly flattens and surface winds
remain light and variable on the north side of yesterday`s cold
front. As lee side low pressure develops over the High Plains this
afternoon and turns low-level flow back around to the south, the
surface boundary will begin to retreat north and spread a chance of
storms this evening and overnight throughout the CWA. Strong-severe
storms are not expected with weak upper-level flow and no support
for convection other than the surface boundary and a weak LLJ during
the overnight hours, and storms should be scattered in nature. Storm
chances will continue to lift northeast as the boundary treks across
the CWA on Wednesday, before tapering off Wednesday evening. Highs
Wednesday will rise into the lower 90s on the south side of the
front and the upper 80s where frontal passage will occur later,
although precipitation could affect highs if it becomes widespread.
Highs on Thursday will be even warmer as southerly surface flow
increases and 850 hPa temps increase into the 22 to 24 C range,
likely resulting in highs in the lower to mid 90s CWA-wide.

The next chance of precipitation will begin Thursday night as low
pressure traveling along the Canadian border sends a cold front into
the forecast area. Frontal passage should occur slowly as the parent
low travels farther to the east, spreading storm chances through
Friday and possibly in Saturday morning. Much cooler temperatures
are expected this weekend behind the front, potentially resulting in
2 to 3 consecutive days with highs in the 70s Saturday through
Monday. Southerly flow will eventually return near the end of the
forecast period, bringing a return of seasonable temperatures and
low-end chances for storms.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Showers and thunderstorms should be east of the forecast area through
the rest of the overnight hours. If the clouds are able to clear out
tonight we still appear on track for some scattered to widespread fog
across the area, which will bring a period of MVFR to perhaps IFR
VSBY at all terminals. Confidence is lowest at the KC sites, so kept
just a mention of MVFR, however a TEMPO for lower thresholds may be
needed as the morning approaches. By mid day the fog will dissipate
and scattered clouds around 3 kft will prevail through the day. By
late evening to early overnight hours on Tuesday night a few
showers and thunderstorms will approach the terminals, but the timing
should dictate a mention in the upcoming 12z forecast.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton






000
FXUS63 KEAX 020838
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
338 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Showers and storms have ended across the CWA this morning, leaving
mainly quiet conditions for much of today. Light fog and scattered
to broken low stratus will continue to filter along the back side of
last night`s precipitation, but should stay patchy in nature this
morning and will gradually dissipate around sunrise.

Temperatures this afternoon will be near to just a degree or two
below normal as northwest flow quickly flattens and surface winds
remain light and variable on the north side of yesterday`s cold
front. As lee side low pressure develops over the High Plains this
afternoon and turns low-level flow back around to the south, the
surface boundary will begin to retreat north and spread a chance of
storms this evening and overnight throughout the CWA. Strong-severe
storms are not expected with weak upper-level flow and no support
for convection other than the surface boundary and a weak LLJ during
the overnight hours, and storms should be scattered in nature. Storm
chances will continue to lift northeast as the boundary treks across
the CWA on Wednesday, before tapering off Wednesday evening. Highs
Wednesday will rise into the lower 90s on the south side of the
front and the upper 80s where frontal passage will occur later,
although precipitation could affect highs if it becomes widespread.
Highs on Thursday will be even warmer as southerly surface flow
increases and 850 hPa temps increase into the 22 to 24 C range,
likely resulting in highs in the lower to mid 90s CWA-wide.

The next chance of precipitation will begin Thursday night as low
pressure traveling along the Canadian border sends a cold front into
the forecast area. Frontal passage should occur slowly as the parent
low travels farther to the east, spreading storm chances through
Friday and possibly in Saturday morning. Much cooler temperatures
are expected this weekend behind the front, potentially resulting in
2 to 3 consecutive days with highs in the 70s Saturday through
Monday. Southerly flow will eventually return near the end of the
forecast period, bringing a return of seasonable temperatures and
low-end chances for storms.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Showers and thunderstorms should be east of the forecast area through
the rest of the overnight hours. If the clouds are able to clear out
tonight we still appear on track for some scattered to widespread fog
across the area, which will bring a period of MVFR to perhaps IFR
VSBY at all terminals. Confidence is lowest at the KC sites, so kept
just a mention of MVFR, however a TEMPO for lower thresholds may be
needed as the morning approaches. By mid day the fog will dissipate
and scattered clouds around 3 kft will prevail through the day. By
late evening to early overnight hours on Tuesday night a few
showers and thunderstorms will approach the terminals, but the timing
should dictate a mention in the upcoming 12z forecast.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton






000
FXUS63 KEAX 020838
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
338 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Showers and storms have ended across the CWA this morning, leaving
mainly quiet conditions for much of today. Light fog and scattered
to broken low stratus will continue to filter along the back side of
last night`s precipitation, but should stay patchy in nature this
morning and will gradually dissipate around sunrise.

Temperatures this afternoon will be near to just a degree or two
below normal as northwest flow quickly flattens and surface winds
remain light and variable on the north side of yesterday`s cold
front. As lee side low pressure develops over the High Plains this
afternoon and turns low-level flow back around to the south, the
surface boundary will begin to retreat north and spread a chance of
storms this evening and overnight throughout the CWA. Strong-severe
storms are not expected with weak upper-level flow and no support
for convection other than the surface boundary and a weak LLJ during
the overnight hours, and storms should be scattered in nature. Storm
chances will continue to lift northeast as the boundary treks across
the CWA on Wednesday, before tapering off Wednesday evening. Highs
Wednesday will rise into the lower 90s on the south side of the
front and the upper 80s where frontal passage will occur later,
although precipitation could affect highs if it becomes widespread.
Highs on Thursday will be even warmer as southerly surface flow
increases and 850 hPa temps increase into the 22 to 24 C range,
likely resulting in highs in the lower to mid 90s CWA-wide.

The next chance of precipitation will begin Thursday night as low
pressure traveling along the Canadian border sends a cold front into
the forecast area. Frontal passage should occur slowly as the parent
low travels farther to the east, spreading storm chances through
Friday and possibly in Saturday morning. Much cooler temperatures
are expected this weekend behind the front, potentially resulting in
2 to 3 consecutive days with highs in the 70s Saturday through
Monday. Southerly flow will eventually return near the end of the
forecast period, bringing a return of seasonable temperatures and
low-end chances for storms.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Showers and thunderstorms should be east of the forecast area through
the rest of the overnight hours. If the clouds are able to clear out
tonight we still appear on track for some scattered to widespread fog
across the area, which will bring a period of MVFR to perhaps IFR
VSBY at all terminals. Confidence is lowest at the KC sites, so kept
just a mention of MVFR, however a TEMPO for lower thresholds may be
needed as the morning approaches. By mid day the fog will dissipate
and scattered clouds around 3 kft will prevail through the day. By
late evening to early overnight hours on Tuesday night a few
showers and thunderstorms will approach the terminals, but the timing
should dictate a mention in the upcoming 12z forecast.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton






000
FXUS63 KEAX 020838
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
338 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Showers and storms have ended across the CWA this morning, leaving
mainly quiet conditions for much of today. Light fog and scattered
to broken low stratus will continue to filter along the back side of
last night`s precipitation, but should stay patchy in nature this
morning and will gradually dissipate around sunrise.

Temperatures this afternoon will be near to just a degree or two
below normal as northwest flow quickly flattens and surface winds
remain light and variable on the north side of yesterday`s cold
front. As lee side low pressure develops over the High Plains this
afternoon and turns low-level flow back around to the south, the
surface boundary will begin to retreat north and spread a chance of
storms this evening and overnight throughout the CWA. Strong-severe
storms are not expected with weak upper-level flow and no support
for convection other than the surface boundary and a weak LLJ during
the overnight hours, and storms should be scattered in nature. Storm
chances will continue to lift northeast as the boundary treks across
the CWA on Wednesday, before tapering off Wednesday evening. Highs
Wednesday will rise into the lower 90s on the south side of the
front and the upper 80s where frontal passage will occur later,
although precipitation could affect highs if it becomes widespread.
Highs on Thursday will be even warmer as southerly surface flow
increases and 850 hPa temps increase into the 22 to 24 C range,
likely resulting in highs in the lower to mid 90s CWA-wide.

The next chance of precipitation will begin Thursday night as low
pressure traveling along the Canadian border sends a cold front into
the forecast area. Frontal passage should occur slowly as the parent
low travels farther to the east, spreading storm chances through
Friday and possibly in Saturday morning. Much cooler temperatures
are expected this weekend behind the front, potentially resulting in
2 to 3 consecutive days with highs in the 70s Saturday through
Monday. Southerly flow will eventually return near the end of the
forecast period, bringing a return of seasonable temperatures and
low-end chances for storms.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Showers and thunderstorms should be east of the forecast area through
the rest of the overnight hours. If the clouds are able to clear out
tonight we still appear on track for some scattered to widespread fog
across the area, which will bring a period of MVFR to perhaps IFR
VSBY at all terminals. Confidence is lowest at the KC sites, so kept
just a mention of MVFR, however a TEMPO for lower thresholds may be
needed as the morning approaches. By mid day the fog will dissipate
and scattered clouds around 3 kft will prevail through the day. By
late evening to early overnight hours on Tuesday night a few
showers and thunderstorms will approach the terminals, but the timing
should dictate a mention in the upcoming 12z forecast.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton






000
FXUS63 KSGF 020837
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
337 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Showers and thunderstorms continue to sag southward early this
morning across from extreme southeastern Kansas and far southern
Missouri. Expect this trend to continue as the low level gradually
veers and a minor shortwave traverses to the east. The flash flood
risk will continue early this morning generally south of highway
60.

Expect most if not all of the activity to diminish by midday but
cannot rule additional development this afternoon mainly from
southeastern Kansas into far southern Missouri in closer proximity
to the residual outflow boundary.

This boundary will lift north tonight as a warm front as the low
level jet once again asserts itself. Expect scattered convection
to develop tonight on the nose of this low level jet as it
interacts with the warm front. It appears development will be
focused from southeastern Kansas into central Missouri. A few
strong storms along with locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Very warm and humid weather will return Wednesday through Friday
as the upper level ridge expands northward. Cannot rule out lingering
isolated convection Wednesday mainly from central Missouri into
the eastern Ozarks as as the warm front lifts north of the area.

A shortwave trough tracking east along the Canadian border will
push a cold front southward into the region Friday. This will
result in an increasing chance for showers an thunderstorms. The
chance of showers will persist into part of Saturday as the front
pushes to the south.

A much cooler and drier airmass will overspread the region behind
the front this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A temporary lull in shower and thunderstorm activity can be
expected for much of this afternoon with VFR prevailing. We will
continue to see brisk and gusty southerly winds this afternoon. We
are then expecting more thunderstorm development from late this
afternoon into this evening with periods of thunderstorms
overnight. MVFR and brief reductions to IFR can be expected with
these storms. The thunderstorms are then expected to end sometime
early Tuesday morning. We may see residual low clouds behind the
departing storms.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ082-083-088-
     090>096-098-101>103.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 020837
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
337 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Showers and thunderstorms continue to sag southward early this
morning across from extreme southeastern Kansas and far southern
Missouri. Expect this trend to continue as the low level gradually
veers and a minor shortwave traverses to the east. The flash flood
risk will continue early this morning generally south of highway
60.

Expect most if not all of the activity to diminish by midday but
cannot rule additional development this afternoon mainly from
southeastern Kansas into far southern Missouri in closer proximity
to the residual outflow boundary.

This boundary will lift north tonight as a warm front as the low
level jet once again asserts itself. Expect scattered convection
to develop tonight on the nose of this low level jet as it
interacts with the warm front. It appears development will be
focused from southeastern Kansas into central Missouri. A few
strong storms along with locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Very warm and humid weather will return Wednesday through Friday
as the upper level ridge expands northward. Cannot rule out lingering
isolated convection Wednesday mainly from central Missouri into
the eastern Ozarks as as the warm front lifts north of the area.

A shortwave trough tracking east along the Canadian border will
push a cold front southward into the region Friday. This will
result in an increasing chance for showers an thunderstorms. The
chance of showers will persist into part of Saturday as the front
pushes to the south.

A much cooler and drier airmass will overspread the region behind
the front this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A temporary lull in shower and thunderstorm activity can be
expected for much of this afternoon with VFR prevailing. We will
continue to see brisk and gusty southerly winds this afternoon. We
are then expecting more thunderstorm development from late this
afternoon into this evening with periods of thunderstorms
overnight. MVFR and brief reductions to IFR can be expected with
these storms. The thunderstorms are then expected to end sometime
early Tuesday morning. We may see residual low clouds behind the
departing storms.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ082-083-088-
     090>096-098-101>103.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KLSX 020617
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
117 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 108 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

Updated grids and products have been sent to reflect the
transition from severe thunderstorms to flooding concerns. Ongoing
area of rain with embedded thunderstorms will continue to
gradually sink southward overnight as the LLJ veers. A Flash Flood
Watch remains in effect through 7 am for parts of central and
eastern Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

Kanofsky

Issued at 835 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

In the process of pulling the flash flood watch northward a couple
of tiers of counties based on radar trends. Still believe that the
heaviest rainfall threat will be shifting south with time, but
current trends suggest that may not be fast enough to prevent some
hydro problems over the next few hours. However...did limit the
FFA to just this evening in COU area as heaviest rains should drop
south/east of their area by 05z. May be able to trim some other
northern areas as well by then but will watch radar trends for
this adjustment.

Truett

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

Heavy rain threat is the primary forecast challenge for tonight.
Another shortwave is moving east-southeast through the longwave
pattern over the Great Plains.  This shortwave will trigger a
south-southwesterly low level jet to increase again this evening,
aimed right at the low level baroclinic zone left over from last
night`s storms.  With plenty of moisture in place over the area and
a baroclinic zone that`s parallel or nearly parallel to the mid
level flow, expect that thunderstorms will form and train over parts
of Missouri and Illinois this evening and tonight.  All short range
guidance shows a tremendous amount of moisture convergence on the
nose of the low level jet tonight...generally along and south of the
I-70 corridor.  Think the axis of heaviest rain will actually be
along and south of the I-44 corridor in Missouri and along and south
of I-70 in Illinois, but I cannot rule out heavy rain a little
further north either.  QPF forecast paints a swath of heavy rain
along this axis between 1.5 and 2 inches.  With the potential for
locally higher amounts, and flash flood guidance running around
2-2.5 inches per hour, will go ahead and issue a flash flood watch
for those areas.  Further north across northeast Missouri and west
central Illinois, there could be some widely scattered/isolated
showers and thunderstorms, but I don`t think these will train and
cause any flooding issues.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

(Tuesday - Wednesday)

Flat zonal upper flow will remain in the wake of the strong
shortwave expected to pull away by Tuesday morning, with the hot
upper ridge that had given us our period of well above average temps
lurking just to the south.  The synoptic cold front will probably
linger into the STL metro area at the start of Tuesday, but its
associated precipitation likely well out ahead of it by this time
into southern MO and far southern IL.  Any slowing down of the
eastward progress of the shortwave though will favor some
precipitation of some sort extending back close to the STL metro
area.

The upper level pattern at this point is not very favorable for much
more southward progress of the front and so this boundary is
expected to stall somewhere in the southern CWA Tuesday and into
Tuesday night.  The old frontal boundary will probably lose a lot of
its moisture convergence strength Tuesday afternoon and evening and
so only isolated convection is expected in the absence of a low
level jet or upper level support.  The low level jet that will help
refire up a more organized system later on Tuesday night will
probably begin well to the west of our region and not really reach
our area until Wednesday if it holds.

It is for this reason that Wednesday PoPs were tempered until we see
a clearer signal for how this will evolve and develop.

Above average temps expected thru this period but not hot enough to
warrant any sort of heat headline.

(Thursday - Friday)

Well above average temps are currently anticipated during this
stretch, with max temps in the lo-mid 90s.  Peak heat index values
are looking to be from 100-105 for many areas on Thursday and,
depending on whether or not thunderstorms can get going along
approaching cold front, may very well see these values again
on Friday.

Fortunately, it is now September and so these shots of heat should
be relatively short-lived...with it all expected to come to an end
once the front moves thru Friday night.  Boosted PoPs to just below
likely for Friday night.

(Saturday - next Monday)

A well deserved cool period still in the offing in the wake of this
front with a 1025mb high pressure to be the dominant influence
during this period.  Max temps may struggle to exit the 70s in many
areas.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

MCS complex continues to track to the east across forecast area.
Should see storms taper off over KCOU by 07z and over metro area
after 09z. Did keep mention of showers for a few more hours before
tapering off towards sunrise. As for KUIN, to remain north of
rain. Because of weak boundaries and ridging, winds to remain
light and variable except around storms. Clouds to scatter out by
midday to early afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:
MCS complex continues to track to the east across forecast area.
Should see storms taper off over metro area after 09z. Did keep
mention of showers through 11z before tapering off. Because of
weak boundaries and ridging, winds to remain light and variable
except around storms. Clouds to scatter out by 20z Tuesday.

Byrd

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR Boone MO-
     Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
     Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-
     Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-
     St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste.
     Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR Bond IL-
     Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-
     Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-
     Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 020617
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
117 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 108 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

Updated grids and products have been sent to reflect the
transition from severe thunderstorms to flooding concerns. Ongoing
area of rain with embedded thunderstorms will continue to
gradually sink southward overnight as the LLJ veers. A Flash Flood
Watch remains in effect through 7 am for parts of central and
eastern Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

Kanofsky

Issued at 835 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

In the process of pulling the flash flood watch northward a couple
of tiers of counties based on radar trends. Still believe that the
heaviest rainfall threat will be shifting south with time, but
current trends suggest that may not be fast enough to prevent some
hydro problems over the next few hours. However...did limit the
FFA to just this evening in COU area as heaviest rains should drop
south/east of their area by 05z. May be able to trim some other
northern areas as well by then but will watch radar trends for
this adjustment.

Truett

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

Heavy rain threat is the primary forecast challenge for tonight.
Another shortwave is moving east-southeast through the longwave
pattern over the Great Plains.  This shortwave will trigger a
south-southwesterly low level jet to increase again this evening,
aimed right at the low level baroclinic zone left over from last
night`s storms.  With plenty of moisture in place over the area and
a baroclinic zone that`s parallel or nearly parallel to the mid
level flow, expect that thunderstorms will form and train over parts
of Missouri and Illinois this evening and tonight.  All short range
guidance shows a tremendous amount of moisture convergence on the
nose of the low level jet tonight...generally along and south of the
I-70 corridor.  Think the axis of heaviest rain will actually be
along and south of the I-44 corridor in Missouri and along and south
of I-70 in Illinois, but I cannot rule out heavy rain a little
further north either.  QPF forecast paints a swath of heavy rain
along this axis between 1.5 and 2 inches.  With the potential for
locally higher amounts, and flash flood guidance running around
2-2.5 inches per hour, will go ahead and issue a flash flood watch
for those areas.  Further north across northeast Missouri and west
central Illinois, there could be some widely scattered/isolated
showers and thunderstorms, but I don`t think these will train and
cause any flooding issues.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

(Tuesday - Wednesday)

Flat zonal upper flow will remain in the wake of the strong
shortwave expected to pull away by Tuesday morning, with the hot
upper ridge that had given us our period of well above average temps
lurking just to the south.  The synoptic cold front will probably
linger into the STL metro area at the start of Tuesday, but its
associated precipitation likely well out ahead of it by this time
into southern MO and far southern IL.  Any slowing down of the
eastward progress of the shortwave though will favor some
precipitation of some sort extending back close to the STL metro
area.

The upper level pattern at this point is not very favorable for much
more southward progress of the front and so this boundary is
expected to stall somewhere in the southern CWA Tuesday and into
Tuesday night.  The old frontal boundary will probably lose a lot of
its moisture convergence strength Tuesday afternoon and evening and
so only isolated convection is expected in the absence of a low
level jet or upper level support.  The low level jet that will help
refire up a more organized system later on Tuesday night will
probably begin well to the west of our region and not really reach
our area until Wednesday if it holds.

It is for this reason that Wednesday PoPs were tempered until we see
a clearer signal for how this will evolve and develop.

Above average temps expected thru this period but not hot enough to
warrant any sort of heat headline.

(Thursday - Friday)

Well above average temps are currently anticipated during this
stretch, with max temps in the lo-mid 90s.  Peak heat index values
are looking to be from 100-105 for many areas on Thursday and,
depending on whether or not thunderstorms can get going along
approaching cold front, may very well see these values again
on Friday.

Fortunately, it is now September and so these shots of heat should
be relatively short-lived...with it all expected to come to an end
once the front moves thru Friday night.  Boosted PoPs to just below
likely for Friday night.

(Saturday - next Monday)

A well deserved cool period still in the offing in the wake of this
front with a 1025mb high pressure to be the dominant influence
during this period.  Max temps may struggle to exit the 70s in many
areas.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

MCS complex continues to track to the east across forecast area.
Should see storms taper off over KCOU by 07z and over metro area
after 09z. Did keep mention of showers for a few more hours before
tapering off towards sunrise. As for KUIN, to remain north of
rain. Because of weak boundaries and ridging, winds to remain
light and variable except around storms. Clouds to scatter out by
midday to early afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:
MCS complex continues to track to the east across forecast area.
Should see storms taper off over metro area after 09z. Did keep
mention of showers through 11z before tapering off. Because of
weak boundaries and ridging, winds to remain light and variable
except around storms. Clouds to scatter out by 20z Tuesday.

Byrd

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR Boone MO-
     Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
     Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-
     Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-
     St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste.
     Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR Bond IL-
     Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-
     Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-
     Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 020607
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
107 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

...Risk for Heavy Rainfall and Flooding Continues Overnight...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1255 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

The risk of severe weather has decreased considerably as we head
into the overnight hours. Widespread showers with embedded
thunderstorms will persist overnight as a low level jet gradually
veers and noses into the area and a minor shortwave trough
traverses eastward across the region.

Expect the strongest convection with potential of torrential
rainfall rates to impact far southeastern Kansas into far
southwestern Missouri through the early morning hours where
convergence and moisture transport will be maximized on the nose
of the low level jet.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for all of the Missouri
Ozarks and far southeastern Kansas overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

The potential for severe storms late this afternoon and tonight
still remains somewhat unclear. An outflow boundary from earlier
storms had initially pushed into east-central Oklahoma and northern
Arkansas. This boundary is now retreating to the north and was
located from near Ponca City, OK to just north of Fayetteville, AR.
To the north of this boundary, the airmass has remained fairly
stable from southwestern Missouri into the eastern Ozarks. There
is also a synoptic frontal boundary in place from northwestern OK
into northeastern MO. The atmosphere ahead of this front was only
weakly unstable across northern and central MO. A weak surface wave
was also noted on this boundary across western OK.

As we head into late this afternoon and early this evening, short
wave energy currently across the central High Plains will continue
to shift east towards our region. As this happens, that outflow
boundary will continue to shift north while the synoptic front
nudges south. We are expecting convective initiation starting late
this afternoon...potentially on both of these features. We may see a
window of supercell potential across southeastern KS and
northeastern OK where strong instability will exist (south of that
retreating outflow boundary). Any supercells will tend to slowly
move east-southeast. Large hail would be the primary threat with
any supercells. We have left a limited tornado threat in as a low
level jet develops this evening along with the potential for some
backing of surface winds with that surface wave. Any remaining
boundaries will also have to be watched for a low level vorticity
source...especially if supercells tended to track along them
(versus crossing them).

Speaking of that low level jet, convection will really begin to
blossom later this evening as this feature interacts with the front
and possibly that outflow boundary. This should begin to shut the
window for supercells but open the door for training line segments
and convective clusters. There will still be the potential for some
damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief spin-up with any line
segments bowing to the east. Otherwise, heavy rainfall will be the
main concern as we get into later this evening and overnight.

The front is expected to slow down significantly late this evening
and stall across southern Missouri for much of the overnight
hours. As the front slides into the Ozarks, it is expected to
become oriented parallel to the upper level meridional flow.
This parallel alignment will work to slow the southern
progression of the front and allow showers and storms that develop
to move over the same locations for much of the overnight hours.
Additionally, that 30-35kt low level jet will begin to nose into
southwestern Missouri between 00z and 06z and feed very moist Gulf
air into the Ozarks. Forecast precipitable water values climb to
around 2 inches overnight. This will make for very efficient
rainfall production for showers and storms overnight. The right
entrance region of an upper level jet streak will also help to
produce deep layer lift across the area, only acting to enhance
the potential for heavy rainfall potential.

By early Tuesday morning the 925-850MB fronts will become the
focus for heavy rainfall as they settle across the I-44 corridor.
Current expectations are for 2-3 inches of rainfall with locally
higher amounts exceeding 4 inches in some areas.

The 925/850MB fronts will finally begin to shift south and east of
the region heading into Tuesday afternoon...taking the heaviest
rains with them.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

The upper level pattern is expected to change little through the
middle of the week with a flat ridge remaining over the southern
half of the CONUS. Despite the departing cold front from Tuesday,
some additional shortwaves are expected to move through the flat
upper level flow and interact with the continuing southerly flow
from the Gulf. This will allow for some lingering chances for
showers and storms through Wednesday afternoon.

A brief period of upper level ridging will limit the chances for
precipitation for the remainder of the week as the upper level
pattern begins to shift.

By early Saturday morning, the upper level pattern will become
more northwesterly as the upper level ridge shifts westward and
slides another front through the region.

The ridge will shift eastward once again on Sunday into Monday
behind Saturday`s cold front.

 &&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A temporary lull in shower and thunderstorm activity can be
expected for much of this afternoon with VFR prevailing. We will
continue to see brisk and gusty southerly winds this afternoon. We
are then expecting more thunderstorm development from late this
afternoon into this evening with periods of thunderstorms
overnight. MVFR and brief reductions to IFR can be expected with
these storms. The thunderstorms are then expected to end sometime
early Tuesday morning. We may see residual low clouds behind the
departing storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A temporary lull in shower and thunderstorm activity can be
expected for much of this afternoon with VFR prevailing. We will
continue to see brisk and gusty southerly winds this afternoon. We
are then expecting more thunderstorm development from late this
afternoon into this evening with periods of thunderstorms
overnight. MVFR and brief reductions to IFR can be expected with
these storms. The thunderstorms are then expected to end sometime
early Tuesday morning. We may see residual low clouds behind the
departing storms.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>096-098-101>103.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Schaumann/Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 020607
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
107 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

...Risk for Heavy Rainfall and Flooding Continues Overnight...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1255 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

The risk of severe weather has decreased considerably as we head
into the overnight hours. Widespread showers with embedded
thunderstorms will persist overnight as a low level jet gradually
veers and noses into the area and a minor shortwave trough
traverses eastward across the region.

Expect the strongest convection with potential of torrential
rainfall rates to impact far southeastern Kansas into far
southwestern Missouri through the early morning hours where
convergence and moisture transport will be maximized on the nose
of the low level jet.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for all of the Missouri
Ozarks and far southeastern Kansas overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

The potential for severe storms late this afternoon and tonight
still remains somewhat unclear. An outflow boundary from earlier
storms had initially pushed into east-central Oklahoma and northern
Arkansas. This boundary is now retreating to the north and was
located from near Ponca City, OK to just north of Fayetteville, AR.
To the north of this boundary, the airmass has remained fairly
stable from southwestern Missouri into the eastern Ozarks. There
is also a synoptic frontal boundary in place from northwestern OK
into northeastern MO. The atmosphere ahead of this front was only
weakly unstable across northern and central MO. A weak surface wave
was also noted on this boundary across western OK.

As we head into late this afternoon and early this evening, short
wave energy currently across the central High Plains will continue
to shift east towards our region. As this happens, that outflow
boundary will continue to shift north while the synoptic front
nudges south. We are expecting convective initiation starting late
this afternoon...potentially on both of these features. We may see a
window of supercell potential across southeastern KS and
northeastern OK where strong instability will exist (south of that
retreating outflow boundary). Any supercells will tend to slowly
move east-southeast. Large hail would be the primary threat with
any supercells. We have left a limited tornado threat in as a low
level jet develops this evening along with the potential for some
backing of surface winds with that surface wave. Any remaining
boundaries will also have to be watched for a low level vorticity
source...especially if supercells tended to track along them
(versus crossing them).

Speaking of that low level jet, convection will really begin to
blossom later this evening as this feature interacts with the front
and possibly that outflow boundary. This should begin to shut the
window for supercells but open the door for training line segments
and convective clusters. There will still be the potential for some
damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief spin-up with any line
segments bowing to the east. Otherwise, heavy rainfall will be the
main concern as we get into later this evening and overnight.

The front is expected to slow down significantly late this evening
and stall across southern Missouri for much of the overnight
hours. As the front slides into the Ozarks, it is expected to
become oriented parallel to the upper level meridional flow.
This parallel alignment will work to slow the southern
progression of the front and allow showers and storms that develop
to move over the same locations for much of the overnight hours.
Additionally, that 30-35kt low level jet will begin to nose into
southwestern Missouri between 00z and 06z and feed very moist Gulf
air into the Ozarks. Forecast precipitable water values climb to
around 2 inches overnight. This will make for very efficient
rainfall production for showers and storms overnight. The right
entrance region of an upper level jet streak will also help to
produce deep layer lift across the area, only acting to enhance
the potential for heavy rainfall potential.

By early Tuesday morning the 925-850MB fronts will become the
focus for heavy rainfall as they settle across the I-44 corridor.
Current expectations are for 2-3 inches of rainfall with locally
higher amounts exceeding 4 inches in some areas.

The 925/850MB fronts will finally begin to shift south and east of
the region heading into Tuesday afternoon...taking the heaviest
rains with them.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

The upper level pattern is expected to change little through the
middle of the week with a flat ridge remaining over the southern
half of the CONUS. Despite the departing cold front from Tuesday,
some additional shortwaves are expected to move through the flat
upper level flow and interact with the continuing southerly flow
from the Gulf. This will allow for some lingering chances for
showers and storms through Wednesday afternoon.

A brief period of upper level ridging will limit the chances for
precipitation for the remainder of the week as the upper level
pattern begins to shift.

By early Saturday morning, the upper level pattern will become
more northwesterly as the upper level ridge shifts westward and
slides another front through the region.

The ridge will shift eastward once again on Sunday into Monday
behind Saturday`s cold front.

 &&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A temporary lull in shower and thunderstorm activity can be
expected for much of this afternoon with VFR prevailing. We will
continue to see brisk and gusty southerly winds this afternoon. We
are then expecting more thunderstorm development from late this
afternoon into this evening with periods of thunderstorms
overnight. MVFR and brief reductions to IFR can be expected with
these storms. The thunderstorms are then expected to end sometime
early Tuesday morning. We may see residual low clouds behind the
departing storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A temporary lull in shower and thunderstorm activity can be
expected for much of this afternoon with VFR prevailing. We will
continue to see brisk and gusty southerly winds this afternoon. We
are then expecting more thunderstorm development from late this
afternoon into this evening with periods of thunderstorms
overnight. MVFR and brief reductions to IFR can be expected with
these storms. The thunderstorms are then expected to end sometime
early Tuesday morning. We may see residual low clouds behind the
departing storms.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>096-098-101>103.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Schaumann/Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 020607
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
107 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

...Risk for Heavy Rainfall and Flooding Continues Overnight...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1255 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

The risk of severe weather has decreased considerably as we head
into the overnight hours. Widespread showers with embedded
thunderstorms will persist overnight as a low level jet gradually
veers and noses into the area and a minor shortwave trough
traverses eastward across the region.

Expect the strongest convection with potential of torrential
rainfall rates to impact far southeastern Kansas into far
southwestern Missouri through the early morning hours where
convergence and moisture transport will be maximized on the nose
of the low level jet.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for all of the Missouri
Ozarks and far southeastern Kansas overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

The potential for severe storms late this afternoon and tonight
still remains somewhat unclear. An outflow boundary from earlier
storms had initially pushed into east-central Oklahoma and northern
Arkansas. This boundary is now retreating to the north and was
located from near Ponca City, OK to just north of Fayetteville, AR.
To the north of this boundary, the airmass has remained fairly
stable from southwestern Missouri into the eastern Ozarks. There
is also a synoptic frontal boundary in place from northwestern OK
into northeastern MO. The atmosphere ahead of this front was only
weakly unstable across northern and central MO. A weak surface wave
was also noted on this boundary across western OK.

As we head into late this afternoon and early this evening, short
wave energy currently across the central High Plains will continue
to shift east towards our region. As this happens, that outflow
boundary will continue to shift north while the synoptic front
nudges south. We are expecting convective initiation starting late
this afternoon...potentially on both of these features. We may see a
window of supercell potential across southeastern KS and
northeastern OK where strong instability will exist (south of that
retreating outflow boundary). Any supercells will tend to slowly
move east-southeast. Large hail would be the primary threat with
any supercells. We have left a limited tornado threat in as a low
level jet develops this evening along with the potential for some
backing of surface winds with that surface wave. Any remaining
boundaries will also have to be watched for a low level vorticity
source...especially if supercells tended to track along them
(versus crossing them).

Speaking of that low level jet, convection will really begin to
blossom later this evening as this feature interacts with the front
and possibly that outflow boundary. This should begin to shut the
window for supercells but open the door for training line segments
and convective clusters. There will still be the potential for some
damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief spin-up with any line
segments bowing to the east. Otherwise, heavy rainfall will be the
main concern as we get into later this evening and overnight.

The front is expected to slow down significantly late this evening
and stall across southern Missouri for much of the overnight
hours. As the front slides into the Ozarks, it is expected to
become oriented parallel to the upper level meridional flow.
This parallel alignment will work to slow the southern
progression of the front and allow showers and storms that develop
to move over the same locations for much of the overnight hours.
Additionally, that 30-35kt low level jet will begin to nose into
southwestern Missouri between 00z and 06z and feed very moist Gulf
air into the Ozarks. Forecast precipitable water values climb to
around 2 inches overnight. This will make for very efficient
rainfall production for showers and storms overnight. The right
entrance region of an upper level jet streak will also help to
produce deep layer lift across the area, only acting to enhance
the potential for heavy rainfall potential.

By early Tuesday morning the 925-850MB fronts will become the
focus for heavy rainfall as they settle across the I-44 corridor.
Current expectations are for 2-3 inches of rainfall with locally
higher amounts exceeding 4 inches in some areas.

The 925/850MB fronts will finally begin to shift south and east of
the region heading into Tuesday afternoon...taking the heaviest
rains with them.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

The upper level pattern is expected to change little through the
middle of the week with a flat ridge remaining over the southern
half of the CONUS. Despite the departing cold front from Tuesday,
some additional shortwaves are expected to move through the flat
upper level flow and interact with the continuing southerly flow
from the Gulf. This will allow for some lingering chances for
showers and storms through Wednesday afternoon.

A brief period of upper level ridging will limit the chances for
precipitation for the remainder of the week as the upper level
pattern begins to shift.

By early Saturday morning, the upper level pattern will become
more northwesterly as the upper level ridge shifts westward and
slides another front through the region.

The ridge will shift eastward once again on Sunday into Monday
behind Saturday`s cold front.

 &&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A temporary lull in shower and thunderstorm activity can be
expected for much of this afternoon with VFR prevailing. We will
continue to see brisk and gusty southerly winds this afternoon. We
are then expecting more thunderstorm development from late this
afternoon into this evening with periods of thunderstorms
overnight. MVFR and brief reductions to IFR can be expected with
these storms. The thunderstorms are then expected to end sometime
early Tuesday morning. We may see residual low clouds behind the
departing storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A temporary lull in shower and thunderstorm activity can be
expected for much of this afternoon with VFR prevailing. We will
continue to see brisk and gusty southerly winds this afternoon. We
are then expecting more thunderstorm development from late this
afternoon into this evening with periods of thunderstorms
overnight. MVFR and brief reductions to IFR can be expected with
these storms. The thunderstorms are then expected to end sometime
early Tuesday morning. We may see residual low clouds behind the
departing storms.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>096-098-101>103.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Schaumann/Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 020607
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
107 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

...Risk for Heavy Rainfall and Flooding Continues Overnight...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1255 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

The risk of severe weather has decreased considerably as we head
into the overnight hours. Widespread showers with embedded
thunderstorms will persist overnight as a low level jet gradually
veers and noses into the area and a minor shortwave trough
traverses eastward across the region.

Expect the strongest convection with potential of torrential
rainfall rates to impact far southeastern Kansas into far
southwestern Missouri through the early morning hours where
convergence and moisture transport will be maximized on the nose
of the low level jet.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for all of the Missouri
Ozarks and far southeastern Kansas overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

The potential for severe storms late this afternoon and tonight
still remains somewhat unclear. An outflow boundary from earlier
storms had initially pushed into east-central Oklahoma and northern
Arkansas. This boundary is now retreating to the north and was
located from near Ponca City, OK to just north of Fayetteville, AR.
To the north of this boundary, the airmass has remained fairly
stable from southwestern Missouri into the eastern Ozarks. There
is also a synoptic frontal boundary in place from northwestern OK
into northeastern MO. The atmosphere ahead of this front was only
weakly unstable across northern and central MO. A weak surface wave
was also noted on this boundary across western OK.

As we head into late this afternoon and early this evening, short
wave energy currently across the central High Plains will continue
to shift east towards our region. As this happens, that outflow
boundary will continue to shift north while the synoptic front
nudges south. We are expecting convective initiation starting late
this afternoon...potentially on both of these features. We may see a
window of supercell potential across southeastern KS and
northeastern OK where strong instability will exist (south of that
retreating outflow boundary). Any supercells will tend to slowly
move east-southeast. Large hail would be the primary threat with
any supercells. We have left a limited tornado threat in as a low
level jet develops this evening along with the potential for some
backing of surface winds with that surface wave. Any remaining
boundaries will also have to be watched for a low level vorticity
source...especially if supercells tended to track along them
(versus crossing them).

Speaking of that low level jet, convection will really begin to
blossom later this evening as this feature interacts with the front
and possibly that outflow boundary. This should begin to shut the
window for supercells but open the door for training line segments
and convective clusters. There will still be the potential for some
damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief spin-up with any line
segments bowing to the east. Otherwise, heavy rainfall will be the
main concern as we get into later this evening and overnight.

The front is expected to slow down significantly late this evening
and stall across southern Missouri for much of the overnight
hours. As the front slides into the Ozarks, it is expected to
become oriented parallel to the upper level meridional flow.
This parallel alignment will work to slow the southern
progression of the front and allow showers and storms that develop
to move over the same locations for much of the overnight hours.
Additionally, that 30-35kt low level jet will begin to nose into
southwestern Missouri between 00z and 06z and feed very moist Gulf
air into the Ozarks. Forecast precipitable water values climb to
around 2 inches overnight. This will make for very efficient
rainfall production for showers and storms overnight. The right
entrance region of an upper level jet streak will also help to
produce deep layer lift across the area, only acting to enhance
the potential for heavy rainfall potential.

By early Tuesday morning the 925-850MB fronts will become the
focus for heavy rainfall as they settle across the I-44 corridor.
Current expectations are for 2-3 inches of rainfall with locally
higher amounts exceeding 4 inches in some areas.

The 925/850MB fronts will finally begin to shift south and east of
the region heading into Tuesday afternoon...taking the heaviest
rains with them.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

The upper level pattern is expected to change little through the
middle of the week with a flat ridge remaining over the southern
half of the CONUS. Despite the departing cold front from Tuesday,
some additional shortwaves are expected to move through the flat
upper level flow and interact with the continuing southerly flow
from the Gulf. This will allow for some lingering chances for
showers and storms through Wednesday afternoon.

A brief period of upper level ridging will limit the chances for
precipitation for the remainder of the week as the upper level
pattern begins to shift.

By early Saturday morning, the upper level pattern will become
more northwesterly as the upper level ridge shifts westward and
slides another front through the region.

The ridge will shift eastward once again on Sunday into Monday
behind Saturday`s cold front.

 &&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A temporary lull in shower and thunderstorm activity can be
expected for much of this afternoon with VFR prevailing. We will
continue to see brisk and gusty southerly winds this afternoon. We
are then expecting more thunderstorm development from late this
afternoon into this evening with periods of thunderstorms
overnight. MVFR and brief reductions to IFR can be expected with
these storms. The thunderstorms are then expected to end sometime
early Tuesday morning. We may see residual low clouds behind the
departing storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A temporary lull in shower and thunderstorm activity can be
expected for much of this afternoon with VFR prevailing. We will
continue to see brisk and gusty southerly winds this afternoon. We
are then expecting more thunderstorm development from late this
afternoon into this evening with periods of thunderstorms
overnight. MVFR and brief reductions to IFR can be expected with
these storms. The thunderstorms are then expected to end sometime
early Tuesday morning. We may see residual low clouds behind the
departing storms.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>096-098-101>103.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Schaumann/Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KLSX 020534
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1234 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 835 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

In the process of pulling the flash flood watch northward a couple
of tiers of counties based on radar trends. Still believe that the
heaviest rainfall threat will be shifting south with time, but
current trends suggest that may not be fast enough to prevent some
hydro problems over the next few hours. However...did limit the
FFA to just this evening in COU area as heaviest rains should drop
south/east of their area by 05z. May be able to trim some other
northern areas as well by then but will watch radar trends for
this adjustment.

Truett

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

Heavy rain threat is the primary forecast challenge for tonight.
Another shortwave is moving east-southeast through the longwave
pattern over the Great Plains.  This shortwave will trigger a
south-southwesterly low level jet to increase again this evening,
aimed right at the low level baroclinic zone left over from last
night`s storms.  With plenty of moisture in place over the area and
a baroclinic zone that`s parallel or nearly parallel to the mid
level flow, expect that thunderstorms will form and train over parts
of Missouri and Illinois this evening and tonight.  All short range
guidance shows a tremendous amount of moisture convergence on the
nose of the low level jet tonight...generally along and south of the
I-70 corridor.  Think the axis of heaviest rain will actually be
along and south of the I-44 corridor in Missouri and along and south
of I-70 in Illinois, but I cannot rule out heavy rain a little
further north either.  QPF forecast paints a swath of heavy rain
along this axis between 1.5 and 2 inches.  With the potential for
locally higher amounts, and flash flood guidance running around
2-2.5 inches per hour, will go ahead and issue a flash flood watch
for those areas.  Further north across northeast Missouri and west
central Illinois, there could be some widely scattered/isolated
showers and thunderstorms, but I don`t think these will train and
cause any flooding issues.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

(Tuesday - Wednesday)

Flat zonal upper flow will remain in the wake of the strong
shortwave expected to pull away by Tuesday morning, with the hot
upper ridge that had given us our period of well above average temps
lurking just to the south.  The synoptic cold front will probably
linger into the STL metro area at the start of Tuesday, but its
associated precipitation likely well out ahead of it by this time
into southern MO and far southern IL.  Any slowing down of the
eastward progress of the shortwave though will favor some
precipitation of some sort extending back close to the STL metro
area.

The upper level pattern at this point is not very favorable for much
more southward progress of the front and so this boundary is
expected to stall somewhere in the southern CWA Tuesday and into
Tuesday night.  The old frontal boundary will probably lose a lot of
its moisture convergence strength Tuesday afternoon and evening and
so only isolated convection is expected in the absence of a low
level jet or upper level support.  The low level jet that will help
refire up a more organized system later on Tuesday night will
probably begin well to the west of our region and not really reach
our area until Wednesday if it holds.

It is for this reason that Wednesday PoPs were tempered until we see
a clearer signal for how this will evolve and develop.

Above average temps expected thru this period but not hot enough to
warrant any sort of heat headline.

(Thursday - Friday)

Well above average temps are currently anticipated during this
stretch, with max temps in the lo-mid 90s.  Peak heat index values
are looking to be from 100-105 for many areas on Thursday and,
depending on whether or not thunderstorms can get going along
approaching cold front, may very well see these values again
on Friday.

Fortunately, it is now September and so these shots of heat should
be relatively short-lived...with it all expected to come to an end
once the front moves thru Friday night.  Boosted PoPs to just below
likely for Friday night.

(Saturday - next Monday)

A well deserved cool period still in the offing in the wake of this
front with a 1025mb high pressure to be the dominant influence
during this period.  Max temps may struggle to exit the 70s in many
areas.

TES
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

MCS complex continues to track to the east across forecast area.
Should see storms taper off over KCOU by 07z and over metro area
after 09z. Did keep mention of showers for a few more hours before
tapering off towards sunrise. As for KUIN, to remain north of
rain. Because of weak boundaries and ridging, winds to remain
light and variable except around storms. Clouds to scatter out by
midday to early afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:
MCS complex continues to track to the east across forecast area.
Should see storms taper off over metro area after 09z. Did keep
mention of showers through 11z before tapering off. Because of
weak boundaries and ridging, winds to remain light and variable
except around storms. Clouds to scatter out by 20z Tuesday.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR Boone MO-
     Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
     Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-
     Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-
     St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste.
     Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR Bond IL-
     Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-
     Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-
     Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$
WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 020534
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1234 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 835 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

In the process of pulling the flash flood watch northward a couple
of tiers of counties based on radar trends. Still believe that the
heaviest rainfall threat will be shifting south with time, but
current trends suggest that may not be fast enough to prevent some
hydro problems over the next few hours. However...did limit the
FFA to just this evening in COU area as heaviest rains should drop
south/east of their area by 05z. May be able to trim some other
northern areas as well by then but will watch radar trends for
this adjustment.

Truett

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

Heavy rain threat is the primary forecast challenge for tonight.
Another shortwave is moving east-southeast through the longwave
pattern over the Great Plains.  This shortwave will trigger a
south-southwesterly low level jet to increase again this evening,
aimed right at the low level baroclinic zone left over from last
night`s storms.  With plenty of moisture in place over the area and
a baroclinic zone that`s parallel or nearly parallel to the mid
level flow, expect that thunderstorms will form and train over parts
of Missouri and Illinois this evening and tonight.  All short range
guidance shows a tremendous amount of moisture convergence on the
nose of the low level jet tonight...generally along and south of the
I-70 corridor.  Think the axis of heaviest rain will actually be
along and south of the I-44 corridor in Missouri and along and south
of I-70 in Illinois, but I cannot rule out heavy rain a little
further north either.  QPF forecast paints a swath of heavy rain
along this axis between 1.5 and 2 inches.  With the potential for
locally higher amounts, and flash flood guidance running around
2-2.5 inches per hour, will go ahead and issue a flash flood watch
for those areas.  Further north across northeast Missouri and west
central Illinois, there could be some widely scattered/isolated
showers and thunderstorms, but I don`t think these will train and
cause any flooding issues.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

(Tuesday - Wednesday)

Flat zonal upper flow will remain in the wake of the strong
shortwave expected to pull away by Tuesday morning, with the hot
upper ridge that had given us our period of well above average temps
lurking just to the south.  The synoptic cold front will probably
linger into the STL metro area at the start of Tuesday, but its
associated precipitation likely well out ahead of it by this time
into southern MO and far southern IL.  Any slowing down of the
eastward progress of the shortwave though will favor some
precipitation of some sort extending back close to the STL metro
area.

The upper level pattern at this point is not very favorable for much
more southward progress of the front and so this boundary is
expected to stall somewhere in the southern CWA Tuesday and into
Tuesday night.  The old frontal boundary will probably lose a lot of
its moisture convergence strength Tuesday afternoon and evening and
so only isolated convection is expected in the absence of a low
level jet or upper level support.  The low level jet that will help
refire up a more organized system later on Tuesday night will
probably begin well to the west of our region and not really reach
our area until Wednesday if it holds.

It is for this reason that Wednesday PoPs were tempered until we see
a clearer signal for how this will evolve and develop.

Above average temps expected thru this period but not hot enough to
warrant any sort of heat headline.

(Thursday - Friday)

Well above average temps are currently anticipated during this
stretch, with max temps in the lo-mid 90s.  Peak heat index values
are looking to be from 100-105 for many areas on Thursday and,
depending on whether or not thunderstorms can get going along
approaching cold front, may very well see these values again
on Friday.

Fortunately, it is now September and so these shots of heat should
be relatively short-lived...with it all expected to come to an end
once the front moves thru Friday night.  Boosted PoPs to just below
likely for Friday night.

(Saturday - next Monday)

A well deserved cool period still in the offing in the wake of this
front with a 1025mb high pressure to be the dominant influence
during this period.  Max temps may struggle to exit the 70s in many
areas.

TES
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

MCS complex continues to track to the east across forecast area.
Should see storms taper off over KCOU by 07z and over metro area
after 09z. Did keep mention of showers for a few more hours before
tapering off towards sunrise. As for KUIN, to remain north of
rain. Because of weak boundaries and ridging, winds to remain
light and variable except around storms. Clouds to scatter out by
midday to early afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:
MCS complex continues to track to the east across forecast area.
Should see storms taper off over metro area after 09z. Did keep
mention of showers through 11z before tapering off. Because of
weak boundaries and ridging, winds to remain light and variable
except around storms. Clouds to scatter out by 20z Tuesday.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR Boone MO-
     Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
     Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-
     Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-
     St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste.
     Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR Bond IL-
     Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-
     Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-
     Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$
WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 020534
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1234 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 835 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

In the process of pulling the flash flood watch northward a couple
of tiers of counties based on radar trends. Still believe that the
heaviest rainfall threat will be shifting south with time, but
current trends suggest that may not be fast enough to prevent some
hydro problems over the next few hours. However...did limit the
FFA to just this evening in COU area as heaviest rains should drop
south/east of their area by 05z. May be able to trim some other
northern areas as well by then but will watch radar trends for
this adjustment.

Truett

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

Heavy rain threat is the primary forecast challenge for tonight.
Another shortwave is moving east-southeast through the longwave
pattern over the Great Plains.  This shortwave will trigger a
south-southwesterly low level jet to increase again this evening,
aimed right at the low level baroclinic zone left over from last
night`s storms.  With plenty of moisture in place over the area and
a baroclinic zone that`s parallel or nearly parallel to the mid
level flow, expect that thunderstorms will form and train over parts
of Missouri and Illinois this evening and tonight.  All short range
guidance shows a tremendous amount of moisture convergence on the
nose of the low level jet tonight...generally along and south of the
I-70 corridor.  Think the axis of heaviest rain will actually be
along and south of the I-44 corridor in Missouri and along and south
of I-70 in Illinois, but I cannot rule out heavy rain a little
further north either.  QPF forecast paints a swath of heavy rain
along this axis between 1.5 and 2 inches.  With the potential for
locally higher amounts, and flash flood guidance running around
2-2.5 inches per hour, will go ahead and issue a flash flood watch
for those areas.  Further north across northeast Missouri and west
central Illinois, there could be some widely scattered/isolated
showers and thunderstorms, but I don`t think these will train and
cause any flooding issues.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

(Tuesday - Wednesday)

Flat zonal upper flow will remain in the wake of the strong
shortwave expected to pull away by Tuesday morning, with the hot
upper ridge that had given us our period of well above average temps
lurking just to the south.  The synoptic cold front will probably
linger into the STL metro area at the start of Tuesday, but its
associated precipitation likely well out ahead of it by this time
into southern MO and far southern IL.  Any slowing down of the
eastward progress of the shortwave though will favor some
precipitation of some sort extending back close to the STL metro
area.

The upper level pattern at this point is not very favorable for much
more southward progress of the front and so this boundary is
expected to stall somewhere in the southern CWA Tuesday and into
Tuesday night.  The old frontal boundary will probably lose a lot of
its moisture convergence strength Tuesday afternoon and evening and
so only isolated convection is expected in the absence of a low
level jet or upper level support.  The low level jet that will help
refire up a more organized system later on Tuesday night will
probably begin well to the west of our region and not really reach
our area until Wednesday if it holds.

It is for this reason that Wednesday PoPs were tempered until we see
a clearer signal for how this will evolve and develop.

Above average temps expected thru this period but not hot enough to
warrant any sort of heat headline.

(Thursday - Friday)

Well above average temps are currently anticipated during this
stretch, with max temps in the lo-mid 90s.  Peak heat index values
are looking to be from 100-105 for many areas on Thursday and,
depending on whether or not thunderstorms can get going along
approaching cold front, may very well see these values again
on Friday.

Fortunately, it is now September and so these shots of heat should
be relatively short-lived...with it all expected to come to an end
once the front moves thru Friday night.  Boosted PoPs to just below
likely for Friday night.

(Saturday - next Monday)

A well deserved cool period still in the offing in the wake of this
front with a 1025mb high pressure to be the dominant influence
during this period.  Max temps may struggle to exit the 70s in many
areas.

TES
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

MCS complex continues to track to the east across forecast area.
Should see storms taper off over KCOU by 07z and over metro area
after 09z. Did keep mention of showers for a few more hours before
tapering off towards sunrise. As for KUIN, to remain north of
rain. Because of weak boundaries and ridging, winds to remain
light and variable except around storms. Clouds to scatter out by
midday to early afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:
MCS complex continues to track to the east across forecast area.
Should see storms taper off over metro area after 09z. Did keep
mention of showers through 11z before tapering off. Because of
weak boundaries and ridging, winds to remain light and variable
except around storms. Clouds to scatter out by 20z Tuesday.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR Boone MO-
     Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
     Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-
     Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-
     St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste.
     Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR Bond IL-
     Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-
     Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-
     Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$
WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 020534
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1234 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 835 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

In the process of pulling the flash flood watch northward a couple
of tiers of counties based on radar trends. Still believe that the
heaviest rainfall threat will be shifting south with time, but
current trends suggest that may not be fast enough to prevent some
hydro problems over the next few hours. However...did limit the
FFA to just this evening in COU area as heaviest rains should drop
south/east of their area by 05z. May be able to trim some other
northern areas as well by then but will watch radar trends for
this adjustment.

Truett

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

Heavy rain threat is the primary forecast challenge for tonight.
Another shortwave is moving east-southeast through the longwave
pattern over the Great Plains.  This shortwave will trigger a
south-southwesterly low level jet to increase again this evening,
aimed right at the low level baroclinic zone left over from last
night`s storms.  With plenty of moisture in place over the area and
a baroclinic zone that`s parallel or nearly parallel to the mid
level flow, expect that thunderstorms will form and train over parts
of Missouri and Illinois this evening and tonight.  All short range
guidance shows a tremendous amount of moisture convergence on the
nose of the low level jet tonight...generally along and south of the
I-70 corridor.  Think the axis of heaviest rain will actually be
along and south of the I-44 corridor in Missouri and along and south
of I-70 in Illinois, but I cannot rule out heavy rain a little
further north either.  QPF forecast paints a swath of heavy rain
along this axis between 1.5 and 2 inches.  With the potential for
locally higher amounts, and flash flood guidance running around
2-2.5 inches per hour, will go ahead and issue a flash flood watch
for those areas.  Further north across northeast Missouri and west
central Illinois, there could be some widely scattered/isolated
showers and thunderstorms, but I don`t think these will train and
cause any flooding issues.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

(Tuesday - Wednesday)

Flat zonal upper flow will remain in the wake of the strong
shortwave expected to pull away by Tuesday morning, with the hot
upper ridge that had given us our period of well above average temps
lurking just to the south.  The synoptic cold front will probably
linger into the STL metro area at the start of Tuesday, but its
associated precipitation likely well out ahead of it by this time
into southern MO and far southern IL.  Any slowing down of the
eastward progress of the shortwave though will favor some
precipitation of some sort extending back close to the STL metro
area.

The upper level pattern at this point is not very favorable for much
more southward progress of the front and so this boundary is
expected to stall somewhere in the southern CWA Tuesday and into
Tuesday night.  The old frontal boundary will probably lose a lot of
its moisture convergence strength Tuesday afternoon and evening and
so only isolated convection is expected in the absence of a low
level jet or upper level support.  The low level jet that will help
refire up a more organized system later on Tuesday night will
probably begin well to the west of our region and not really reach
our area until Wednesday if it holds.

It is for this reason that Wednesday PoPs were tempered until we see
a clearer signal for how this will evolve and develop.

Above average temps expected thru this period but not hot enough to
warrant any sort of heat headline.

(Thursday - Friday)

Well above average temps are currently anticipated during this
stretch, with max temps in the lo-mid 90s.  Peak heat index values
are looking to be from 100-105 for many areas on Thursday and,
depending on whether or not thunderstorms can get going along
approaching cold front, may very well see these values again
on Friday.

Fortunately, it is now September and so these shots of heat should
be relatively short-lived...with it all expected to come to an end
once the front moves thru Friday night.  Boosted PoPs to just below
likely for Friday night.

(Saturday - next Monday)

A well deserved cool period still in the offing in the wake of this
front with a 1025mb high pressure to be the dominant influence
during this period.  Max temps may struggle to exit the 70s in many
areas.

TES
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

MCS complex continues to track to the east across forecast area.
Should see storms taper off over KCOU by 07z and over metro area
after 09z. Did keep mention of showers for a few more hours before
tapering off towards sunrise. As for KUIN, to remain north of
rain. Because of weak boundaries and ridging, winds to remain
light and variable except around storms. Clouds to scatter out by
midday to early afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:
MCS complex continues to track to the east across forecast area.
Should see storms taper off over metro area after 09z. Did keep
mention of showers through 11z before tapering off. Because of
weak boundaries and ridging, winds to remain light and variable
except around storms. Clouds to scatter out by 20z Tuesday.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR Boone MO-
     Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
     Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-
     Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-
     St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste.
     Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR Bond IL-
     Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-
     Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-
     Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$
WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 020504
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1204 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Very near term concerns hinge on overcoming a stout cap left from
last nights extensive convection. Visible satellite imagery notes
the thick/flat StratoCu deck defining this cap which has spread
across most of the CWA this afternoon. Operational models are having
a hard time dealing with this stable environment and generating
convection across the southern 1/2 of the CWA. Closer look at the
NAM/GFS Bu fr soundings, especially the GFS as it has correctly held
onto the cap longer, reveals just how strong the cap is. Short term
Hi-Res models are superior and have trended southward with bulk of
convection and focus on the outflow boundary left by this mornings
decayed convection. For now will pare back PoPs south of the MO
River and focus on far southern counties. Northern half will remain
dry.

Otherwise, a weak cold front will drift south through the CWA
overnight, likely stalling over the far southern CWA around sunrise.
Have added fog to the forecast due to near calm winds, clearing
skies across northern MO, very moist boundary layer and a now
climatological favorable time of year for fog formation.

Weak high pressure tries to build in on Tuesday but probably won`t
have much luck due to the presence of the stalled front. Net effect
is near seasonal temperatures with drier conditions across far
northern MO but remaining humid south of the MO River.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Zonal flow aloft will take root Tuesday through Thursday with falling
pressures building in across the Central Plains late Tuesday and
Wednesday allowing the stalled front to return northward as a warm
front. As the low level jet reforms in response to falling pressures
the isentropic ascent above the warm front should allow scattered
elevated convection to form Tuesday evening and through the night.
Models due pick up on this and the isentropic ascent is quite
prevalent on the 310K surface. Have gone with high end chance PoPs.

Convection will exit the region Wednesday afternoon with dry and
hot conditions returning as an elevated mixed layer spreads in.

The dry weather won`t last long as the medium range models have
remained consistent in dragging a moderately strong cold front
through KS and MO Friday/Friday night. Timing may be a bit of a
problem for high temperatures but convection is pretty certain
during this period. The elevated mixed layer within the pre-frontal
zone should keep the region dry until FROPA. Elevated post-frontal
convection likely to break out initially within the surface to h8
layer. A veering low-level jet will keep the convection going
through Friday night.

The weekend is shaping up to be gorgeous as our first true taste of
fall-like weather moves in with high temperatures in the 70s and
overnight lows generally in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Showers and thunderstorms should be east of the forecast area through
the rest of the overnight hours. If the clouds are able to clear out
tonight we still appear on track for some scattered to widespread fog
across the area, which will bring a period of MVFR to perhaps IFR
VSBY at all terminals. Confidence is lowest at the KC sites, so kept
just a mention of MVFR, however a TEMPO for lower thresholds may be
needed as the morning approaches. By mid day the fog will dissipate
and scattered clouds around 3 kft will prevail through the day. By
late evening to early overnight hours on Tuesday night a few
showers and thunderstorms will approach the terminals, but the timing
should dictate a mention in the upcoming 12z forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Leighton






000
FXUS63 KEAX 020504
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1204 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Very near term concerns hinge on overcoming a stout cap left from
last nights extensive convection. Visible satellite imagery notes
the thick/flat StratoCu deck defining this cap which has spread
across most of the CWA this afternoon. Operational models are having
a hard time dealing with this stable environment and generating
convection across the southern 1/2 of the CWA. Closer look at the
NAM/GFS Bu fr soundings, especially the GFS as it has correctly held
onto the cap longer, reveals just how strong the cap is. Short term
Hi-Res models are superior and have trended southward with bulk of
convection and focus on the outflow boundary left by this mornings
decayed convection. For now will pare back PoPs south of the MO
River and focus on far southern counties. Northern half will remain
dry.

Otherwise, a weak cold front will drift south through the CWA
overnight, likely stalling over the far southern CWA around sunrise.
Have added fog to the forecast due to near calm winds, clearing
skies across northern MO, very moist boundary layer and a now
climatological favorable time of year for fog formation.

Weak high pressure tries to build in on Tuesday but probably won`t
have much luck due to the presence of the stalled front. Net effect
is near seasonal temperatures with drier conditions across far
northern MO but remaining humid south of the MO River.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Zonal flow aloft will take root Tuesday through Thursday with falling
pressures building in across the Central Plains late Tuesday and
Wednesday allowing the stalled front to return northward as a warm
front. As the low level jet reforms in response to falling pressures
the isentropic ascent above the warm front should allow scattered
elevated convection to form Tuesday evening and through the night.
Models due pick up on this and the isentropic ascent is quite
prevalent on the 310K surface. Have gone with high end chance PoPs.

Convection will exit the region Wednesday afternoon with dry and
hot conditions returning as an elevated mixed layer spreads in.

The dry weather won`t last long as the medium range models have
remained consistent in dragging a moderately strong cold front
through KS and MO Friday/Friday night. Timing may be a bit of a
problem for high temperatures but convection is pretty certain
during this period. The elevated mixed layer within the pre-frontal
zone should keep the region dry until FROPA. Elevated post-frontal
convection likely to break out initially within the surface to h8
layer. A veering low-level jet will keep the convection going
through Friday night.

The weekend is shaping up to be gorgeous as our first true taste of
fall-like weather moves in with high temperatures in the 70s and
overnight lows generally in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Showers and thunderstorms should be east of the forecast area through
the rest of the overnight hours. If the clouds are able to clear out
tonight we still appear on track for some scattered to widespread fog
across the area, which will bring a period of MVFR to perhaps IFR
VSBY at all terminals. Confidence is lowest at the KC sites, so kept
just a mention of MVFR, however a TEMPO for lower thresholds may be
needed as the morning approaches. By mid day the fog will dissipate
and scattered clouds around 3 kft will prevail through the day. By
late evening to early overnight hours on Tuesday night a few
showers and thunderstorms will approach the terminals, but the timing
should dictate a mention in the upcoming 12z forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KSGF 020446
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1146 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

The potential for severe storms late this afternoon and tonight
still remains somewhat unclear. An outflow boundary from earlier
storms had initially pushed into east-central Oklahoma and northern
Arkansas. This boundary is now retreating to the north and was
located from near Ponca City, OK to just north of Fayetteville, AR.
To the north of this boundary, the airmass has remained fairly
stable from southwestern Missouri into the eastern Ozarks. There
is also a synoptic frontal boundary in place from northwestern OK
into northeastern MO. The atmosphere ahead of this front was only
weakly unstable across northern and central MO. A weak surface wave
was also noted on this boundary across western OK.

As we head into late this afternoon and early this evening, short
wave energy currently across the central High Plains will continue
to shift east towards our region. As this happens, that outflow
boundary will continue to shift north while the synoptic front
nudges south. We are expecting convective initiation starting late
this afternoon...potentially on both of these features. We may see a
window of supercell potential across southeastern KS and
northeastern OK where strong instability will exist (south of that
retreating outflow boundary). Any supercells will tend to slowly
move east-southeast. Large hail would be the primary threat with
any supercells. We have left a limited tornado threat in as a low
level jet develops this evening along with the potential for some
backing of surface winds with that surface wave. Any remaining
boundaries will also have to be watched for a low level vorticity
source...especially if supercells tended to track along them
(versus crossing them).

Speaking of that low level jet, convection will really begin to
blossom later this evening as this feature interacts with the front
and possibly that outflow boundary. This should begin to shut the
window for supercells but open the door for training line segments
and convective clusters. There will still be the potential for some
damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief spin-up with any line
segments bowing to the east. Otherwise, heavy rainfall will be the
main concern as we get into later this evening and overnight.

The front is expected to slow down significantly late this evening
and stall across southern Missouri for much of the overnight
hours. As the front slides into the Ozarks, it is expected to
become oriented parallel to the upper level meridional flow.
This parallel alignment will work to slow the southern
progression of the front and allow showers and storms that develop
to move over the same locations for much of the overnight hours.
Additionally, that 30-35kt low level jet will begin to nose into
southwestern Missouri between 00z and 06z and feed very moist Gulf
air into the Ozarks. Forecast precipitable water values climb to
around 2 inches overnight. This will make for very efficient
rainfall production for showers and storms overnight. The right
entrance region of an upper level jet streak will also help to
produce deep layer lift across the area, only acting to enhance
the potential for heavy rainfall potential.

By early Tuesday morning the 925-850MB fronts will become the
focus for heavy rainfall as they settle across the I-44 corridor.
Current expectations are for 2-3 inches of rainfall with locally
higher amounts exceeding 4 inches in some areas.

The 925/850MB fronts will finally begin to shift south and east of
the region heading into Tuesday afternoon...taking the heaviest
rains with them.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

The upper level pattern is expected to change little through the
middle of the week with a flat ridge remaining over the southern
half of the CONUS. Despite the departing cold front from Tuesday,
some additional shortwaves are expected to move through the flat
upper level flow and interact with the continuing southerly flow
from the Gulf. This will allow for some lingering chances for
showers and storms through Wednesday afternoon.

A brief period of upper level ridging will limit the chances for
precipitation for the remainder of the week as the upper level
pattern begins to shift.

By early Saturday morning, the upper level pattern will become
more northwesterly as the upper level ridge shifts westward and
slides another front through the region.

The ridge will shift eastward once again on Sunday into Monday
behind Saturday`s cold front.

 &&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A temporary lull in shower and thunderstorm activity can be
expected for much of this afternoon with VFR prevailing. We will
continue to see brisk and gusty southerly winds this afternoon. We
are then expecting more thunderstorm development from late this
afternoon into this evening with periods of thunderstorms
overnight. MVFR and brief reductions to IFR can be expected with
these storms. The thunderstorms are then expected to end sometime
early Tuesday morning. We may see residual low clouds behind the
departing storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Strong to severe thunderstorms have been ongoing since early
evening and will be affecting the terminals during the overnight
hours. First round currently going through JLN and has dropped
into IFR conditions. Should see it moving into SGF by the
beginning of the 06z TAFS and into BBG by 08-09z. Another round
will begin to move into JLN by 06-07z. Convection should come to
an end by sunrise at the terminal locations.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>096-098-101>103.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann/Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 020446
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1146 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

The potential for severe storms late this afternoon and tonight
still remains somewhat unclear. An outflow boundary from earlier
storms had initially pushed into east-central Oklahoma and northern
Arkansas. This boundary is now retreating to the north and was
located from near Ponca City, OK to just north of Fayetteville, AR.
To the north of this boundary, the airmass has remained fairly
stable from southwestern Missouri into the eastern Ozarks. There
is also a synoptic frontal boundary in place from northwestern OK
into northeastern MO. The atmosphere ahead of this front was only
weakly unstable across northern and central MO. A weak surface wave
was also noted on this boundary across western OK.

As we head into late this afternoon and early this evening, short
wave energy currently across the central High Plains will continue
to shift east towards our region. As this happens, that outflow
boundary will continue to shift north while the synoptic front
nudges south. We are expecting convective initiation starting late
this afternoon...potentially on both of these features. We may see a
window of supercell potential across southeastern KS and
northeastern OK where strong instability will exist (south of that
retreating outflow boundary). Any supercells will tend to slowly
move east-southeast. Large hail would be the primary threat with
any supercells. We have left a limited tornado threat in as a low
level jet develops this evening along with the potential for some
backing of surface winds with that surface wave. Any remaining
boundaries will also have to be watched for a low level vorticity
source...especially if supercells tended to track along them
(versus crossing them).

Speaking of that low level jet, convection will really begin to
blossom later this evening as this feature interacts with the front
and possibly that outflow boundary. This should begin to shut the
window for supercells but open the door for training line segments
and convective clusters. There will still be the potential for some
damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief spin-up with any line
segments bowing to the east. Otherwise, heavy rainfall will be the
main concern as we get into later this evening and overnight.

The front is expected to slow down significantly late this evening
and stall across southern Missouri for much of the overnight
hours. As the front slides into the Ozarks, it is expected to
become oriented parallel to the upper level meridional flow.
This parallel alignment will work to slow the southern
progression of the front and allow showers and storms that develop
to move over the same locations for much of the overnight hours.
Additionally, that 30-35kt low level jet will begin to nose into
southwestern Missouri between 00z and 06z and feed very moist Gulf
air into the Ozarks. Forecast precipitable water values climb to
around 2 inches overnight. This will make for very efficient
rainfall production for showers and storms overnight. The right
entrance region of an upper level jet streak will also help to
produce deep layer lift across the area, only acting to enhance
the potential for heavy rainfall potential.

By early Tuesday morning the 925-850MB fronts will become the
focus for heavy rainfall as they settle across the I-44 corridor.
Current expectations are for 2-3 inches of rainfall with locally
higher amounts exceeding 4 inches in some areas.

The 925/850MB fronts will finally begin to shift south and east of
the region heading into Tuesday afternoon...taking the heaviest
rains with them.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

The upper level pattern is expected to change little through the
middle of the week with a flat ridge remaining over the southern
half of the CONUS. Despite the departing cold front from Tuesday,
some additional shortwaves are expected to move through the flat
upper level flow and interact with the continuing southerly flow
from the Gulf. This will allow for some lingering chances for
showers and storms through Wednesday afternoon.

A brief period of upper level ridging will limit the chances for
precipitation for the remainder of the week as the upper level
pattern begins to shift.

By early Saturday morning, the upper level pattern will become
more northwesterly as the upper level ridge shifts westward and
slides another front through the region.

The ridge will shift eastward once again on Sunday into Monday
behind Saturday`s cold front.

 &&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A temporary lull in shower and thunderstorm activity can be
expected for much of this afternoon with VFR prevailing. We will
continue to see brisk and gusty southerly winds this afternoon. We
are then expecting more thunderstorm development from late this
afternoon into this evening with periods of thunderstorms
overnight. MVFR and brief reductions to IFR can be expected with
these storms. The thunderstorms are then expected to end sometime
early Tuesday morning. We may see residual low clouds behind the
departing storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Strong to severe thunderstorms have been ongoing since early
evening and will be affecting the terminals during the overnight
hours. First round currently going through JLN and has dropped
into IFR conditions. Should see it moving into SGF by the
beginning of the 06z TAFS and into BBG by 08-09z. Another round
will begin to move into JLN by 06-07z. Convection should come to
an end by sunrise at the terminal locations.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>096-098-101>103.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann/Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KEAX 020329
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1029 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1013 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Widespread convection is ongoing, mainly along and south of
Interstate 70, however a few storms are leaking north of I-70. The
general trend through the evening is that these storms are
demonstrating marginal severe characteristics, despite having good
supercellular structure. The storm that warranted the warning in
Johnson and Miami Co Kansas was moving toward the E/SE around 40 to
50 mph, indicating that it was well elevated above the boundary
layer. Given the rising MLCIN values of around 50 J/kg the thought is
that the elevated nature of these storms will preclude much in the
way of damaging winds. Expect the only issues to be hail and heavy
rain. On that note a decent low level jet and good low level
convergence along the low level boundary will continue to feed this
activity into SE and central Missouri through the next few hours,
perhaps increasing precipitation amounts another inch or two. Radar
has indicated a stripe of 3-4 inch precipitation from Columbia, MO to
Hughesville, MO, and several roads in Cooper County have been closed
due to water problems. Expect that area to receive another inch or
two by the end of the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Very near term concerns hinge on overcoming a stout cap left from
last nights extensive convection. Visible satellite imagery notes
the thick/flat stratocu deck defining this cap which has spread
across most of the CWA this afternoon. Operational models are having
a hard time dealing with this stable environment and generating
convection across the southern 1/2 of the CWA. Closer look at the
NAM/GFS Bufr soundings, especially the GFS as it has correctly held
onto the cap longer, reveals just how strong the cap is. Short term
Hi-Res models are superior and have trended southward with bulk of
convection and focus on the outflow boundary left by this mornings
decayed convection. For now will pare back PoPs south of the MO
River and focus on far southern counties. Northern half will remain
dry.

Otherwise, a weak cold front will drift south through the CWA
overnight, likely stalling over the far southern CWA around sunrise.
Have added fog to the forecast due to near calm winds, clearing
skies across northern MO, very moist boundary layer and a now
climatologically favorable time of year for fog formation.

Weak high pressure tries to build in on Tuesday but probably won`t
have much luck due to the presence of the stalled front. Net effect
is near seasonal temperatures with drier conditions across far
northern MO but remaining humid south of the MO River.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Zonal flow aloft will take root Tuesday through Thursday with falling
pressures building in across the Central Plains late Tuesday and
Wednesday allowing the stalled front to return northward as a warm
front. As the low level jet reforms in response to falling pressures
the isentropic ascent above the warm front should allow scattered
elevated convection to form Tuesday evening and through the night.
Models due pick up on this and the isentropic ascent is quite
prevalent on the 310K surface. Have gone with high end chance PoPs.

Convection will exit the region Wednesday afternoon with dry and
hot conditions returning as an elevated mixed layer spreads in.

The dry weather won`t last long as the medium range models have
remained consistent in dragging a moderately strong cold front
through KS and MO Friday/Friday night. Timing may be a bit of a
problem for high temperatures but convection is pretty certain
during this period. The elevated mixed layer within the pre-frontal
zone should keep the region dry until fropa. Elevated post-frontal
convection likely to break out initially within the surface to h8
layer. A veering low-level jet will keep the convection going
through Friday night.

The weekend is shaping up to be gorgeous as our first true taste of
fall-like weather moves in with high temperatures in the 70s and
overnight lows generally in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Expect surface winds to be generally light and variable through most
of the forecast period as a surface boundary remains in place. A
conditional fog forecast is in the works for the terminals,
especially the KC terminals. Low/mid level clouds will need to go
away before fog will be possible. Model soundings indicate that the
clouds will burn off, so it`s more than conceivable that light fog
will be probable at MCI and MKC. Once the sun rises VFR conditions
should prevail with a cumulus field around 3 kft through the day on
Tuesday.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Leighton
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Leighton






000
FXUS63 KEAX 020329
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1029 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1013 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Widespread convection is ongoing, mainly along and south of
Interstate 70, however a few storms are leaking north of I-70. The
general trend through the evening is that these storms are
demonstrating marginal severe characteristics, despite having good
supercellular structure. The storm that warranted the warning in
Johnson and Miami Co Kansas was moving toward the E/SE around 40 to
50 mph, indicating that it was well elevated above the boundary
layer. Given the rising MLCIN values of around 50 J/kg the thought is
that the elevated nature of these storms will preclude much in the
way of damaging winds. Expect the only issues to be hail and heavy
rain. On that note a decent low level jet and good low level
convergence along the low level boundary will continue to feed this
activity into SE and central Missouri through the next few hours,
perhaps increasing precipitation amounts another inch or two. Radar
has indicated a stripe of 3-4 inch precipitation from Columbia, MO to
Hughesville, MO, and several roads in Cooper County have been closed
due to water problems. Expect that area to receive another inch or
two by the end of the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Very near term concerns hinge on overcoming a stout cap left from
last nights extensive convection. Visible satellite imagery notes
the thick/flat stratocu deck defining this cap which has spread
across most of the CWA this afternoon. Operational models are having
a hard time dealing with this stable environment and generating
convection across the southern 1/2 of the CWA. Closer look at the
NAM/GFS Bufr soundings, especially the GFS as it has correctly held
onto the cap longer, reveals just how strong the cap is. Short term
Hi-Res models are superior and have trended southward with bulk of
convection and focus on the outflow boundary left by this mornings
decayed convection. For now will pare back PoPs south of the MO
River and focus on far southern counties. Northern half will remain
dry.

Otherwise, a weak cold front will drift south through the CWA
overnight, likely stalling over the far southern CWA around sunrise.
Have added fog to the forecast due to near calm winds, clearing
skies across northern MO, very moist boundary layer and a now
climatologically favorable time of year for fog formation.

Weak high pressure tries to build in on Tuesday but probably won`t
have much luck due to the presence of the stalled front. Net effect
is near seasonal temperatures with drier conditions across far
northern MO but remaining humid south of the MO River.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Zonal flow aloft will take root Tuesday through Thursday with falling
pressures building in across the Central Plains late Tuesday and
Wednesday allowing the stalled front to return northward as a warm
front. As the low level jet reforms in response to falling pressures
the isentropic ascent above the warm front should allow scattered
elevated convection to form Tuesday evening and through the night.
Models due pick up on this and the isentropic ascent is quite
prevalent on the 310K surface. Have gone with high end chance PoPs.

Convection will exit the region Wednesday afternoon with dry and
hot conditions returning as an elevated mixed layer spreads in.

The dry weather won`t last long as the medium range models have
remained consistent in dragging a moderately strong cold front
through KS and MO Friday/Friday night. Timing may be a bit of a
problem for high temperatures but convection is pretty certain
during this period. The elevated mixed layer within the pre-frontal
zone should keep the region dry until fropa. Elevated post-frontal
convection likely to break out initially within the surface to h8
layer. A veering low-level jet will keep the convection going
through Friday night.

The weekend is shaping up to be gorgeous as our first true taste of
fall-like weather moves in with high temperatures in the 70s and
overnight lows generally in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Expect surface winds to be generally light and variable through most
of the forecast period as a surface boundary remains in place. A
conditional fog forecast is in the works for the terminals,
especially the KC terminals. Low/mid level clouds will need to go
away before fog will be possible. Model soundings indicate that the
clouds will burn off, so it`s more than conceivable that light fog
will be probable at MCI and MKC. Once the sun rises VFR conditions
should prevail with a cumulus field around 3 kft through the day on
Tuesday.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Leighton
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Leighton






000
FXUS63 KEAX 020329
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1029 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1013 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Widespread convection is ongoing, mainly along and south of
Interstate 70, however a few storms are leaking north of I-70. The
general trend through the evening is that these storms are
demonstrating marginal severe characteristics, despite having good
supercellular structure. The storm that warranted the warning in
Johnson and Miami Co Kansas was moving toward the E/SE around 40 to
50 mph, indicating that it was well elevated above the boundary
layer. Given the rising MLCIN values of around 50 J/kg the thought is
that the elevated nature of these storms will preclude much in the
way of damaging winds. Expect the only issues to be hail and heavy
rain. On that note a decent low level jet and good low level
convergence along the low level boundary will continue to feed this
activity into SE and central Missouri through the next few hours,
perhaps increasing precipitation amounts another inch or two. Radar
has indicated a stripe of 3-4 inch precipitation from Columbia, MO to
Hughesville, MO, and several roads in Cooper County have been closed
due to water problems. Expect that area to receive another inch or
two by the end of the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Very near term concerns hinge on overcoming a stout cap left from
last nights extensive convection. Visible satellite imagery notes
the thick/flat stratocu deck defining this cap which has spread
across most of the CWA this afternoon. Operational models are having
a hard time dealing with this stable environment and generating
convection across the southern 1/2 of the CWA. Closer look at the
NAM/GFS Bufr soundings, especially the GFS as it has correctly held
onto the cap longer, reveals just how strong the cap is. Short term
Hi-Res models are superior and have trended southward with bulk of
convection and focus on the outflow boundary left by this mornings
decayed convection. For now will pare back PoPs south of the MO
River and focus on far southern counties. Northern half will remain
dry.

Otherwise, a weak cold front will drift south through the CWA
overnight, likely stalling over the far southern CWA around sunrise.
Have added fog to the forecast due to near calm winds, clearing
skies across northern MO, very moist boundary layer and a now
climatologically favorable time of year for fog formation.

Weak high pressure tries to build in on Tuesday but probably won`t
have much luck due to the presence of the stalled front. Net effect
is near seasonal temperatures with drier conditions across far
northern MO but remaining humid south of the MO River.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Zonal flow aloft will take root Tuesday through Thursday with falling
pressures building in across the Central Plains late Tuesday and
Wednesday allowing the stalled front to return northward as a warm
front. As the low level jet reforms in response to falling pressures
the isentropic ascent above the warm front should allow scattered
elevated convection to form Tuesday evening and through the night.
Models due pick up on this and the isentropic ascent is quite
prevalent on the 310K surface. Have gone with high end chance PoPs.

Convection will exit the region Wednesday afternoon with dry and
hot conditions returning as an elevated mixed layer spreads in.

The dry weather won`t last long as the medium range models have
remained consistent in dragging a moderately strong cold front
through KS and MO Friday/Friday night. Timing may be a bit of a
problem for high temperatures but convection is pretty certain
during this period. The elevated mixed layer within the pre-frontal
zone should keep the region dry until fropa. Elevated post-frontal
convection likely to break out initially within the surface to h8
layer. A veering low-level jet will keep the convection going
through Friday night.

The weekend is shaping up to be gorgeous as our first true taste of
fall-like weather moves in with high temperatures in the 70s and
overnight lows generally in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Expect surface winds to be generally light and variable through most
of the forecast period as a surface boundary remains in place. A
conditional fog forecast is in the works for the terminals,
especially the KC terminals. Low/mid level clouds will need to go
away before fog will be possible. Model soundings indicate that the
clouds will burn off, so it`s more than conceivable that light fog
will be probable at MCI and MKC. Once the sun rises VFR conditions
should prevail with a cumulus field around 3 kft through the day on
Tuesday.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Leighton
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Leighton






000
FXUS63 KEAX 020329
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1029 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1013 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Widespread convection is ongoing, mainly along and south of
Interstate 70, however a few storms are leaking north of I-70. The
general trend through the evening is that these storms are
demonstrating marginal severe characteristics, despite having good
supercellular structure. The storm that warranted the warning in
Johnson and Miami Co Kansas was moving toward the E/SE around 40 to
50 mph, indicating that it was well elevated above the boundary
layer. Given the rising MLCIN values of around 50 J/kg the thought is
that the elevated nature of these storms will preclude much in the
way of damaging winds. Expect the only issues to be hail and heavy
rain. On that note a decent low level jet and good low level
convergence along the low level boundary will continue to feed this
activity into SE and central Missouri through the next few hours,
perhaps increasing precipitation amounts another inch or two. Radar
has indicated a stripe of 3-4 inch precipitation from Columbia, MO to
Hughesville, MO, and several roads in Cooper County have been closed
due to water problems. Expect that area to receive another inch or
two by the end of the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Very near term concerns hinge on overcoming a stout cap left from
last nights extensive convection. Visible satellite imagery notes
the thick/flat stratocu deck defining this cap which has spread
across most of the CWA this afternoon. Operational models are having
a hard time dealing with this stable environment and generating
convection across the southern 1/2 of the CWA. Closer look at the
NAM/GFS Bufr soundings, especially the GFS as it has correctly held
onto the cap longer, reveals just how strong the cap is. Short term
Hi-Res models are superior and have trended southward with bulk of
convection and focus on the outflow boundary left by this mornings
decayed convection. For now will pare back PoPs south of the MO
River and focus on far southern counties. Northern half will remain
dry.

Otherwise, a weak cold front will drift south through the CWA
overnight, likely stalling over the far southern CWA around sunrise.
Have added fog to the forecast due to near calm winds, clearing
skies across northern MO, very moist boundary layer and a now
climatologically favorable time of year for fog formation.

Weak high pressure tries to build in on Tuesday but probably won`t
have much luck due to the presence of the stalled front. Net effect
is near seasonal temperatures with drier conditions across far
northern MO but remaining humid south of the MO River.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Zonal flow aloft will take root Tuesday through Thursday with falling
pressures building in across the Central Plains late Tuesday and
Wednesday allowing the stalled front to return northward as a warm
front. As the low level jet reforms in response to falling pressures
the isentropic ascent above the warm front should allow scattered
elevated convection to form Tuesday evening and through the night.
Models due pick up on this and the isentropic ascent is quite
prevalent on the 310K surface. Have gone with high end chance PoPs.

Convection will exit the region Wednesday afternoon with dry and
hot conditions returning as an elevated mixed layer spreads in.

The dry weather won`t last long as the medium range models have
remained consistent in dragging a moderately strong cold front
through KS and MO Friday/Friday night. Timing may be a bit of a
problem for high temperatures but convection is pretty certain
during this period. The elevated mixed layer within the pre-frontal
zone should keep the region dry until fropa. Elevated post-frontal
convection likely to break out initially within the surface to h8
layer. A veering low-level jet will keep the convection going
through Friday night.

The weekend is shaping up to be gorgeous as our first true taste of
fall-like weather moves in with high temperatures in the 70s and
overnight lows generally in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Expect surface winds to be generally light and variable through most
of the forecast period as a surface boundary remains in place. A
conditional fog forecast is in the works for the terminals,
especially the KC terminals. Low/mid level clouds will need to go
away before fog will be possible. Model soundings indicate that the
clouds will burn off, so it`s more than conceivable that light fog
will be probable at MCI and MKC. Once the sun rises VFR conditions
should prevail with a cumulus field around 3 kft through the day on
Tuesday.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Leighton
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Leighton






000
FXUS63 KEAX 020329
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1029 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1013 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Widespread convection is ongoing, mainly along and south of
Interstate 70, however a few storms are leaking north of I-70. The
general trend through the evening is that these storms are
demonstrating marginal severe characteristics, despite having good
supercellular structure. The storm that warranted the warning in
Johnson and Miami Co Kansas was moving toward the E/SE around 40 to
50 mph, indicating that it was well elevated above the boundary
layer. Given the rising MLCIN values of around 50 J/kg the thought is
that the elevated nature of these storms will preclude much in the
way of damaging winds. Expect the only issues to be hail and heavy
rain. On that note a decent low level jet and good low level
convergence along the low level boundary will continue to feed this
activity into SE and central Missouri through the next few hours,
perhaps increasing precipitation amounts another inch or two. Radar
has indicated a stripe of 3-4 inch precipitation from Columbia, MO to
Hughesville, MO, and several roads in Cooper County have been closed
due to water problems. Expect that area to receive another inch or
two by the end of the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Very near term concerns hinge on overcoming a stout cap left from
last nights extensive convection. Visible satellite imagery notes
the thick/flat stratocu deck defining this cap which has spread
across most of the CWA this afternoon. Operational models are having
a hard time dealing with this stable environment and generating
convection across the southern 1/2 of the CWA. Closer look at the
NAM/GFS Bufr soundings, especially the GFS as it has correctly held
onto the cap longer, reveals just how strong the cap is. Short term
Hi-Res models are superior and have trended southward with bulk of
convection and focus on the outflow boundary left by this mornings
decayed convection. For now will pare back PoPs south of the MO
River and focus on far southern counties. Northern half will remain
dry.

Otherwise, a weak cold front will drift south through the CWA
overnight, likely stalling over the far southern CWA around sunrise.
Have added fog to the forecast due to near calm winds, clearing
skies across northern MO, very moist boundary layer and a now
climatologically favorable time of year for fog formation.

Weak high pressure tries to build in on Tuesday but probably won`t
have much luck due to the presence of the stalled front. Net effect
is near seasonal temperatures with drier conditions across far
northern MO but remaining humid south of the MO River.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Zonal flow aloft will take root Tuesday through Thursday with falling
pressures building in across the Central Plains late Tuesday and
Wednesday allowing the stalled front to return northward as a warm
front. As the low level jet reforms in response to falling pressures
the isentropic ascent above the warm front should allow scattered
elevated convection to form Tuesday evening and through the night.
Models due pick up on this and the isentropic ascent is quite
prevalent on the 310K surface. Have gone with high end chance PoPs.

Convection will exit the region Wednesday afternoon with dry and
hot conditions returning as an elevated mixed layer spreads in.

The dry weather won`t last long as the medium range models have
remained consistent in dragging a moderately strong cold front
through KS and MO Friday/Friday night. Timing may be a bit of a
problem for high temperatures but convection is pretty certain
during this period. The elevated mixed layer within the pre-frontal
zone should keep the region dry until fropa. Elevated post-frontal
convection likely to break out initially within the surface to h8
layer. A veering low-level jet will keep the convection going
through Friday night.

The weekend is shaping up to be gorgeous as our first true taste of
fall-like weather moves in with high temperatures in the 70s and
overnight lows generally in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Expect surface winds to be generally light and variable through most
of the forecast period as a surface boundary remains in place. A
conditional fog forecast is in the works for the terminals,
especially the KC terminals. Low/mid level clouds will need to go
away before fog will be possible. Model soundings indicate that the
clouds will burn off, so it`s more than conceivable that light fog
will be probable at MCI and MKC. Once the sun rises VFR conditions
should prevail with a cumulus field around 3 kft through the day on
Tuesday.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Leighton
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Leighton






000
FXUS63 KEAX 020329
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1029 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1013 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Widespread convection is ongoing, mainly along and south of
Interstate 70, however a few storms are leaking north of I-70. The
general trend through the evening is that these storms are
demonstrating marginal severe characteristics, despite having good
supercellular structure. The storm that warranted the warning in
Johnson and Miami Co Kansas was moving toward the E/SE around 40 to
50 mph, indicating that it was well elevated above the boundary
layer. Given the rising MLCIN values of around 50 J/kg the thought is
that the elevated nature of these storms will preclude much in the
way of damaging winds. Expect the only issues to be hail and heavy
rain. On that note a decent low level jet and good low level
convergence along the low level boundary will continue to feed this
activity into SE and central Missouri through the next few hours,
perhaps increasing precipitation amounts another inch or two. Radar
has indicated a stripe of 3-4 inch precipitation from Columbia, MO to
Hughesville, MO, and several roads in Cooper County have been closed
due to water problems. Expect that area to receive another inch or
two by the end of the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Very near term concerns hinge on overcoming a stout cap left from
last nights extensive convection. Visible satellite imagery notes
the thick/flat stratocu deck defining this cap which has spread
across most of the CWA this afternoon. Operational models are having
a hard time dealing with this stable environment and generating
convection across the southern 1/2 of the CWA. Closer look at the
NAM/GFS Bufr soundings, especially the GFS as it has correctly held
onto the cap longer, reveals just how strong the cap is. Short term
Hi-Res models are superior and have trended southward with bulk of
convection and focus on the outflow boundary left by this mornings
decayed convection. For now will pare back PoPs south of the MO
River and focus on far southern counties. Northern half will remain
dry.

Otherwise, a weak cold front will drift south through the CWA
overnight, likely stalling over the far southern CWA around sunrise.
Have added fog to the forecast due to near calm winds, clearing
skies across northern MO, very moist boundary layer and a now
climatologically favorable time of year for fog formation.

Weak high pressure tries to build in on Tuesday but probably won`t
have much luck due to the presence of the stalled front. Net effect
is near seasonal temperatures with drier conditions across far
northern MO but remaining humid south of the MO River.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Zonal flow aloft will take root Tuesday through Thursday with falling
pressures building in across the Central Plains late Tuesday and
Wednesday allowing the stalled front to return northward as a warm
front. As the low level jet reforms in response to falling pressures
the isentropic ascent above the warm front should allow scattered
elevated convection to form Tuesday evening and through the night.
Models due pick up on this and the isentropic ascent is quite
prevalent on the 310K surface. Have gone with high end chance PoPs.

Convection will exit the region Wednesday afternoon with dry and
hot conditions returning as an elevated mixed layer spreads in.

The dry weather won`t last long as the medium range models have
remained consistent in dragging a moderately strong cold front
through KS and MO Friday/Friday night. Timing may be a bit of a
problem for high temperatures but convection is pretty certain
during this period. The elevated mixed layer within the pre-frontal
zone should keep the region dry until fropa. Elevated post-frontal
convection likely to break out initially within the surface to h8
layer. A veering low-level jet will keep the convection going
through Friday night.

The weekend is shaping up to be gorgeous as our first true taste of
fall-like weather moves in with high temperatures in the 70s and
overnight lows generally in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Expect surface winds to be generally light and variable through most
of the forecast period as a surface boundary remains in place. A
conditional fog forecast is in the works for the terminals,
especially the KC terminals. Low/mid level clouds will need to go
away before fog will be possible. Model soundings indicate that the
clouds will burn off, so it`s more than conceivable that light fog
will be probable at MCI and MKC. Once the sun rises VFR conditions
should prevail with a cumulus field around 3 kft through the day on
Tuesday.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Leighton
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KLSX 020138
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
838 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 835 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

In the process of pulling the flash flood watch northward a couple
of tiers of counties based on radar trends. Still believe that the
heaviest rainfall threat will be shifting south with time, but
current trends suggest that may not be fast enough to prevent some
hydro problems over the next few hours. However...did limit the
FFA to just this evening in COU area as heaviest rains should drop
south/east of their area by 05z. May be able to trim some other
northern areas as well by then but will watch radar trends for
this adjustment.

Truett

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

Heavy rain threat is the primary forecast challenge for tonight.
Another shortwave is moving east-southeast through the longwave
pattern over the Great Plains.  This shortwave will trigger a
south-southwesterly low level jet to increase again this evening,
aimed right at the low level baroclinic zone left over from last
night`s storms.  With plenty of moisture in place over the area and
a baroclinic zone that`s parallel or nearly parallel to the mid
level flow, expect that thunderstorms will form and train over parts
of Missouri and Illinois this evening and tonight.  All short range
guidance shows a tremendous amount of moisture convergence on the
nose of the low level jet tonight...generally along and south of the
I-70 corridor.  Think the axis of heaviest rain will actually be
along and south of the I-44 corridor in Missouri and along and south
of I-70 in Illinois, but I cannot rule out heavy rain a little
further north either.  QPF forecast paints a swath of heavy rain
along this axis between 1.5 and 2 inches.  With the potential for
locally higher amounts, and flash flood guidance running around
2-2.5 inches per hour, will go ahead and issue a flash flood watch
for those areas.  Further north across northeast Missouri and west
central Illinois, there could be some widely scattered/isolated
showers and thunderstorms, but I don`t think these will train and
cause any flooding issues.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

(Tuesday - Wednesday)

Flat zonal upper flow will remain in the wake of the strong
shortwave expected to pull away by Tuesday morning, with the hot
upper ridge that had given us our period of well above average temps
lurking just to the south.  The synoptic cold front will probably
linger into the STL metro area at the start of Tuesday, but its
associated precipitation likely well out ahead of it by this time
into southern MO and far southern IL.  Any slowing down of the
eastward progress of the shortwave though will favor some
precipitation of some sort extending back close to the STL metro
area.

The upper level pattern at this point is not very favorable for much
more southward progress of the front and so this boundary is
expected to stall somewhere in the southern CWA Tuesday and into
Tuesday night.  The old frontal boundary will probably lose a lot of
its moisture convergence strength Tuesday afternoon and evening and
so only isolated convection is expected in the absence of a low
level jet or upper level support.  The low level jet that will help
refire up a more organized system later on Tuesday night will
probably begin well to the west of our region and not really reach
our area until Wednesday if it holds.

It is for this reason that Wednesday PoPs were tempered until we see
a clearer signal for how this will evolve and develop.

Above average temps expected thru this period but not hot enough to
warrant any sort of heat headline.

(Thursday - Friday)

Well above average temps are currently anticipated during this
stretch, with max temps in the lo-mid 90s.  Peak heat index values
are looking to be from 100-105 for many areas on Thursday and,
depending on whether or not thunderstorms can get going along
approaching cold front, may very well see these values again
on Friday.

Fortunately, it is now September and so these shots of heat should
be relatively short-lived...with it all expected to come to an end
once the front moves thru Friday night.  Boosted PoPs to just below
likely for Friday night.

(Saturday - next Monday)

A well deserved cool period still in the offing in the wake of this
front with a 1025mb high pressure to be the dominant influence
during this period.  Max temps may struggle to exit the 70s in many
areas.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

Expect VFR flight conditions to prevail through much of the
afternoon. Scattered light showers will continue through the early
afternoon across parts of southeast Missouri. West to southwest
wind will gust to around 24kts. Expecting thunderstorms to
redevelop somewhere over west central or southwest Missouri later
this afternoon and spread northeast into parts of central and
eastern Missouri and southwest Illinois this evening. Storms will
likely train along and south of the I-70/I-44 corridor tonight
producing IFR conditions in heavy rain. Storms should move south
and begin to dissipate between 08-12Z.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail this afternoon at
Lambert. Latest thoughts are that thunderstorms will develop over
southwest/west central Missouri and spread east-northeast into
eastern Missouri by early this evening. A prolonged period of
thunderstorms with occasional heavy rain will likely impact the
terminal during the mid-late evening. Storms should move south of
the terminal between 06-11Z; timing is uncertain at this time.
After storms exit the STL Metro area, expect MVFR CIGs to rise to
VFR during the morning.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Tuesday FOR Callaway MO-Cole MO-
     Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-
     Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-
     Pike MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St.
     Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-
     Washington MO.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH until Midnight CDT tonight FOR Boone MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Tuesday FOR Bond IL-Calhoun IL-
     Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-
     Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Randolph IL-
     St. Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 012340
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
640 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Very near term concerns hinge on overcoming a stout cap left from
last nights extensive convection. Visible satellite imagery notes
the thick/flat stratocu deck defining this cap which has spread
across most of the CWA this afternoon. Operational models are having
a hard time dealing with this stable environment and generating
convection across the southern 1/2 of the CWA. Closer look at the
NAM/GFS Bufr soundings, especially the GFS as it has correctly held
onto the cap longer, reveals just how strong the cap is. Short term
Hi-Res models are superior and have trended southward with bulk of
convection and focus on the outflow boundary left by this mornings
decayed convection. For now will pare back PoPs south of the MO
River and focus on far southern counties. Northern half will remain
dry.

Otherwise, a weak cold front will drift south through the CWA
overnight, likely stalling over the far southern CWA around sunrise.
Have added fog to the forecast due to near calm winds, clearing
skies across northern MO, very moist boundary layer and a now
climatologically favorable time of year for fog formation.

Weak high pressure tries to build in on Tuesday but probably won`t
have much luck due to the presence of the stalled front. Net effect
is near seasonal temperatures with drier conditions across far
northern MO but remaining humid south of the MO River.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Zonal flow aloft will take root Tuesday through Thursday with falling
pressures building in across the Central Plains late Tuesday and
Wednesday allowing the stalled front to return northward as a warm
front. As the low level jet reforms in response to falling pressures
the isentropic ascent above the warm front should allow scattered
elevated convection to form Tuesday evening and through the night.
Models due pick up on this and the isentropic ascent is quite
prevalent on the 310K surface. Have gone with high end chance PoPs.

Convection will exit the region Wednesday afternoon with dry and
hot conditions returning as an elevated mixed layer spreads in.

The dry weather won`t last long as the medium range models have
remained consistent in dragging a moderately strong cold front
through KS and MO Friday/Friday night. Timing may be a bit of a
problem for high temperatures but convection is pretty certain
during this period. The elevated mixed layer within the pre-frontal
zone should keep the region dry until fropa. Elevated post-frontal
convection likely to break out initially within the surface to h8
layer. A veering low-level jet will keep the convection going
through Friday night.

The weekend is shaping up to be gorgeous as our first true taste of
fall-like weather moves in with high temperatures in the 70s and
overnight lows generally in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Expect surface winds to be generally light and variable through most
of the forecast period as a surface boundary remains in place. A
conditional fog forecast is in the works for the terminals,
especially the KC terminals. Low/mid level clouds will need to go
away before fog will be possible. Model soundings indicate that the
clouds will burn off, so it`s more than conceivable that light fog
will be probable at MCI and MKC. Once the sun rises VFR conditions
should prevail with a cumulus field around 3 kft through the day on
Tuesday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 012340
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
640 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Very near term concerns hinge on overcoming a stout cap left from
last nights extensive convection. Visible satellite imagery notes
the thick/flat stratocu deck defining this cap which has spread
across most of the CWA this afternoon. Operational models are having
a hard time dealing with this stable environment and generating
convection across the southern 1/2 of the CWA. Closer look at the
NAM/GFS Bufr soundings, especially the GFS as it has correctly held
onto the cap longer, reveals just how strong the cap is. Short term
Hi-Res models are superior and have trended southward with bulk of
convection and focus on the outflow boundary left by this mornings
decayed convection. For now will pare back PoPs south of the MO
River and focus on far southern counties. Northern half will remain
dry.

Otherwise, a weak cold front will drift south through the CWA
overnight, likely stalling over the far southern CWA around sunrise.
Have added fog to the forecast due to near calm winds, clearing
skies across northern MO, very moist boundary layer and a now
climatologically favorable time of year for fog formation.

Weak high pressure tries to build in on Tuesday but probably won`t
have much luck due to the presence of the stalled front. Net effect
is near seasonal temperatures with drier conditions across far
northern MO but remaining humid south of the MO River.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Zonal flow aloft will take root Tuesday through Thursday with falling
pressures building in across the Central Plains late Tuesday and
Wednesday allowing the stalled front to return northward as a warm
front. As the low level jet reforms in response to falling pressures
the isentropic ascent above the warm front should allow scattered
elevated convection to form Tuesday evening and through the night.
Models due pick up on this and the isentropic ascent is quite
prevalent on the 310K surface. Have gone with high end chance PoPs.

Convection will exit the region Wednesday afternoon with dry and
hot conditions returning as an elevated mixed layer spreads in.

The dry weather won`t last long as the medium range models have
remained consistent in dragging a moderately strong cold front
through KS and MO Friday/Friday night. Timing may be a bit of a
problem for high temperatures but convection is pretty certain
during this period. The elevated mixed layer within the pre-frontal
zone should keep the region dry until fropa. Elevated post-frontal
convection likely to break out initially within the surface to h8
layer. A veering low-level jet will keep the convection going
through Friday night.

The weekend is shaping up to be gorgeous as our first true taste of
fall-like weather moves in with high temperatures in the 70s and
overnight lows generally in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Expect surface winds to be generally light and variable through most
of the forecast period as a surface boundary remains in place. A
conditional fog forecast is in the works for the terminals,
especially the KC terminals. Low/mid level clouds will need to go
away before fog will be possible. Model soundings indicate that the
clouds will burn off, so it`s more than conceivable that light fog
will be probable at MCI and MKC. Once the sun rises VFR conditions
should prevail with a cumulus field around 3 kft through the day on
Tuesday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 012340
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
640 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Very near term concerns hinge on overcoming a stout cap left from
last nights extensive convection. Visible satellite imagery notes
the thick/flat stratocu deck defining this cap which has spread
across most of the CWA this afternoon. Operational models are having
a hard time dealing with this stable environment and generating
convection across the southern 1/2 of the CWA. Closer look at the
NAM/GFS Bufr soundings, especially the GFS as it has correctly held
onto the cap longer, reveals just how strong the cap is. Short term
Hi-Res models are superior and have trended southward with bulk of
convection and focus on the outflow boundary left by this mornings
decayed convection. For now will pare back PoPs south of the MO
River and focus on far southern counties. Northern half will remain
dry.

Otherwise, a weak cold front will drift south through the CWA
overnight, likely stalling over the far southern CWA around sunrise.
Have added fog to the forecast due to near calm winds, clearing
skies across northern MO, very moist boundary layer and a now
climatologically favorable time of year for fog formation.

Weak high pressure tries to build in on Tuesday but probably won`t
have much luck due to the presence of the stalled front. Net effect
is near seasonal temperatures with drier conditions across far
northern MO but remaining humid south of the MO River.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Zonal flow aloft will take root Tuesday through Thursday with falling
pressures building in across the Central Plains late Tuesday and
Wednesday allowing the stalled front to return northward as a warm
front. As the low level jet reforms in response to falling pressures
the isentropic ascent above the warm front should allow scattered
elevated convection to form Tuesday evening and through the night.
Models due pick up on this and the isentropic ascent is quite
prevalent on the 310K surface. Have gone with high end chance PoPs.

Convection will exit the region Wednesday afternoon with dry and
hot conditions returning as an elevated mixed layer spreads in.

The dry weather won`t last long as the medium range models have
remained consistent in dragging a moderately strong cold front
through KS and MO Friday/Friday night. Timing may be a bit of a
problem for high temperatures but convection is pretty certain
during this period. The elevated mixed layer within the pre-frontal
zone should keep the region dry until fropa. Elevated post-frontal
convection likely to break out initially within the surface to h8
layer. A veering low-level jet will keep the convection going
through Friday night.

The weekend is shaping up to be gorgeous as our first true taste of
fall-like weather moves in with high temperatures in the 70s and
overnight lows generally in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Expect surface winds to be generally light and variable through most
of the forecast period as a surface boundary remains in place. A
conditional fog forecast is in the works for the terminals,
especially the KC terminals. Low/mid level clouds will need to go
away before fog will be possible. Model soundings indicate that the
clouds will burn off, so it`s more than conceivable that light fog
will be probable at MCI and MKC. Once the sun rises VFR conditions
should prevail with a cumulus field around 3 kft through the day on
Tuesday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 012340
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
640 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Very near term concerns hinge on overcoming a stout cap left from
last nights extensive convection. Visible satellite imagery notes
the thick/flat stratocu deck defining this cap which has spread
across most of the CWA this afternoon. Operational models are having
a hard time dealing with this stable environment and generating
convection across the southern 1/2 of the CWA. Closer look at the
NAM/GFS Bufr soundings, especially the GFS as it has correctly held
onto the cap longer, reveals just how strong the cap is. Short term
Hi-Res models are superior and have trended southward with bulk of
convection and focus on the outflow boundary left by this mornings
decayed convection. For now will pare back PoPs south of the MO
River and focus on far southern counties. Northern half will remain
dry.

Otherwise, a weak cold front will drift south through the CWA
overnight, likely stalling over the far southern CWA around sunrise.
Have added fog to the forecast due to near calm winds, clearing
skies across northern MO, very moist boundary layer and a now
climatologically favorable time of year for fog formation.

Weak high pressure tries to build in on Tuesday but probably won`t
have much luck due to the presence of the stalled front. Net effect
is near seasonal temperatures with drier conditions across far
northern MO but remaining humid south of the MO River.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Zonal flow aloft will take root Tuesday through Thursday with falling
pressures building in across the Central Plains late Tuesday and
Wednesday allowing the stalled front to return northward as a warm
front. As the low level jet reforms in response to falling pressures
the isentropic ascent above the warm front should allow scattered
elevated convection to form Tuesday evening and through the night.
Models due pick up on this and the isentropic ascent is quite
prevalent on the 310K surface. Have gone with high end chance PoPs.

Convection will exit the region Wednesday afternoon with dry and
hot conditions returning as an elevated mixed layer spreads in.

The dry weather won`t last long as the medium range models have
remained consistent in dragging a moderately strong cold front
through KS and MO Friday/Friday night. Timing may be a bit of a
problem for high temperatures but convection is pretty certain
during this period. The elevated mixed layer within the pre-frontal
zone should keep the region dry until fropa. Elevated post-frontal
convection likely to break out initially within the surface to h8
layer. A veering low-level jet will keep the convection going
through Friday night.

The weekend is shaping up to be gorgeous as our first true taste of
fall-like weather moves in with high temperatures in the 70s and
overnight lows generally in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Expect surface winds to be generally light and variable through most
of the forecast period as a surface boundary remains in place. A
conditional fog forecast is in the works for the terminals,
especially the KC terminals. Low/mid level clouds will need to go
away before fog will be possible. Model soundings indicate that the
clouds will burn off, so it`s more than conceivable that light fog
will be probable at MCI and MKC. Once the sun rises VFR conditions
should prevail with a cumulus field around 3 kft through the day on
Tuesday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KSGF 012254
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
554 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

The potential for severe storms late this afternoon and tonight
still remains somewhat unclear. An outflow boundary from earlier
storms had initially pushed into east-central Oklahoma and northern
Arkansas. This boundary is now retreating to the north and was
located from near Ponca City, OK to just north of Fayetteville, AR.
To the north of this boundary, the airmass has remained fairly
stable from southwestern Missouri into the eastern Ozarks. There
is also a synoptic frontal boundary in place from northwestern OK
into northeastern MO. The atmosphere ahead of this front was only
weakly unstable across northern and central MO. A weak surface wave
was also noted on this boundary across western OK.

As we head into late this afternoon and early this evening, short
wave energy currently across the central High Plains will continue
to shift east towards our region. As this happens, that outflow
boundary will continue to shift north while the synoptic front
nudges south. We are expecting convective initiation starting late
this afternoon...potentially on both of these features. We may see a
window of supercell potential across southeastern KS and
northeastern OK where strong instability will exist (south of that
retreating outflow boundary). Any supercells will tend to slowly
move east-southeast. Large hail would be the primary threat with
any supercells. We have left a limited tornado threat in as a low
level jet develops this evening along with the potential for some
backing of surface winds with that surface wave. Any remaining
boundaries will also have to be watched for a low level vorticity
source...especially if supercells tended to track along them
(versus crossing them).

Speaking of that low level jet, convection will really begin to
blossom later this evening as this feature interacts with the front
and possibly that outflow boundary. This should begin to shut the
window for supercells but open the door for training line segments
and convective clusters. There will still be the potential for some
damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief spin-up with any line
segments bowing to the east. Otherwise, heavy rainfall will be the
main concern as we get into later this evening and overnight.

The front is expected to slow down significantly late this evening
and stall across southern Missouri for much of the overnight
hours. As the front slides into the Ozarks, it is expected to
become oriented parallel to the upper level meridional flow.
This parallel alignment will work to slow the southern
progression of the front and allow showers and storms that develop
to move over the same locations for much of the overnight hours.
Additionally, that 30-35kt low level jet will begin to nose into
southwestern Missouri between 00z and 06z and feed very moist Gulf
air into the Ozarks. Forecast precipitable water values climb to
around 2 inches overnight. This will make for very efficient
rainfall production for showers and storms overnight. The right
entrance region of an upper level jet streak will also help to
produce deep layer lift across the area, only acting to enhance
the potential for heavy rainfall potential.

By early Tuesday morning the 925-850MB fronts will become the
focus for heavy rainfall as they settle across the I-44 corridor.
Current expectations are for 2-3 inches of rainfall with locally
higher amounts exceeding 4 inches in some areas.

The 925/850MB fronts will finally begin to shift south and east of
the region heading into Tuesday afternoon...taking the heaviest
rains with them.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

The upper level pattern is expected to change little through the
middle of the week with a flat ridge remaining over the southern
half of the CONUS. Despite the departing cold front from Tuesday,
some additional shortwaves are expected to move through the flat
upper level flow and interact with the continuing southerly flow
from the Gulf. This will allow for some lingering chances for
showers and storms through Wednesday afternoon.

A brief period of upper level ridging will limit the chances for
precipitation for the remainder of the week as the upper level
pattern begins to shift.

By early Saturday morning, the upper level pattern will become
more northwesterly as the upper level ridge shifts westward and
slides another front through the region.

The ridge will shift eastward once again on Sunday into Monday
behind Saturday`s cold front.

 &&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A temporary lull in shower and thunderstorm activity can be
expected for much of this afternoon with VFR prevailing. We will
continue to see brisk and gusty southerly winds this afternoon. We
are then expecting more thunderstorm development from late this
afternoon into this evening with periods of thunderstorms
overnight. MVFR and brief reductions to IFR can be expected with
these storms. The thunderstorms are then expected to end sometime
early Tuesday morning. We may see residual low clouds behind the
departing storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 549 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

After a break from late morning through much of the afternoon,
thunderstorms started to redevelop around 21z along the frontal
boundary from southeast Kansas into central Missouri. The
thunderstorms in the vicinity of the front will continue to grow
in coverage and strength during the early stages of the 00z TAFS
with general line movement to the south through the mid to late
evening and overnight. While VFR conditions are expected outside
of the convection, MVFR to IFR conditions can be expected within
the convection. Heavy rain will be likely as PW values will be
nearing 2.00 in. Thunderstorm coverage should diminish towards morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Tuesday morning FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>096-098-101>103.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Tuesday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann/Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 012254
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
554 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

The potential for severe storms late this afternoon and tonight
still remains somewhat unclear. An outflow boundary from earlier
storms had initially pushed into east-central Oklahoma and northern
Arkansas. This boundary is now retreating to the north and was
located from near Ponca City, OK to just north of Fayetteville, AR.
To the north of this boundary, the airmass has remained fairly
stable from southwestern Missouri into the eastern Ozarks. There
is also a synoptic frontal boundary in place from northwestern OK
into northeastern MO. The atmosphere ahead of this front was only
weakly unstable across northern and central MO. A weak surface wave
was also noted on this boundary across western OK.

As we head into late this afternoon and early this evening, short
wave energy currently across the central High Plains will continue
to shift east towards our region. As this happens, that outflow
boundary will continue to shift north while the synoptic front
nudges south. We are expecting convective initiation starting late
this afternoon...potentially on both of these features. We may see a
window of supercell potential across southeastern KS and
northeastern OK where strong instability will exist (south of that
retreating outflow boundary). Any supercells will tend to slowly
move east-southeast. Large hail would be the primary threat with
any supercells. We have left a limited tornado threat in as a low
level jet develops this evening along with the potential for some
backing of surface winds with that surface wave. Any remaining
boundaries will also have to be watched for a low level vorticity
source...especially if supercells tended to track along them
(versus crossing them).

Speaking of that low level jet, convection will really begin to
blossom later this evening as this feature interacts with the front
and possibly that outflow boundary. This should begin to shut the
window for supercells but open the door for training line segments
and convective clusters. There will still be the potential for some
damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief spin-up with any line
segments bowing to the east. Otherwise, heavy rainfall will be the
main concern as we get into later this evening and overnight.

The front is expected to slow down significantly late this evening
and stall across southern Missouri for much of the overnight
hours. As the front slides into the Ozarks, it is expected to
become oriented parallel to the upper level meridional flow.
This parallel alignment will work to slow the southern
progression of the front and allow showers and storms that develop
to move over the same locations for much of the overnight hours.
Additionally, that 30-35kt low level jet will begin to nose into
southwestern Missouri between 00z and 06z and feed very moist Gulf
air into the Ozarks. Forecast precipitable water values climb to
around 2 inches overnight. This will make for very efficient
rainfall production for showers and storms overnight. The right
entrance region of an upper level jet streak will also help to
produce deep layer lift across the area, only acting to enhance
the potential for heavy rainfall potential.

By early Tuesday morning the 925-850MB fronts will become the
focus for heavy rainfall as they settle across the I-44 corridor.
Current expectations are for 2-3 inches of rainfall with locally
higher amounts exceeding 4 inches in some areas.

The 925/850MB fronts will finally begin to shift south and east of
the region heading into Tuesday afternoon...taking the heaviest
rains with them.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

The upper level pattern is expected to change little through the
middle of the week with a flat ridge remaining over the southern
half of the CONUS. Despite the departing cold front from Tuesday,
some additional shortwaves are expected to move through the flat
upper level flow and interact with the continuing southerly flow
from the Gulf. This will allow for some lingering chances for
showers and storms through Wednesday afternoon.

A brief period of upper level ridging will limit the chances for
precipitation for the remainder of the week as the upper level
pattern begins to shift.

By early Saturday morning, the upper level pattern will become
more northwesterly as the upper level ridge shifts westward and
slides another front through the region.

The ridge will shift eastward once again on Sunday into Monday
behind Saturday`s cold front.

 &&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A temporary lull in shower and thunderstorm activity can be
expected for much of this afternoon with VFR prevailing. We will
continue to see brisk and gusty southerly winds this afternoon. We
are then expecting more thunderstorm development from late this
afternoon into this evening with periods of thunderstorms
overnight. MVFR and brief reductions to IFR can be expected with
these storms. The thunderstorms are then expected to end sometime
early Tuesday morning. We may see residual low clouds behind the
departing storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 549 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

After a break from late morning through much of the afternoon,
thunderstorms started to redevelop around 21z along the frontal
boundary from southeast Kansas into central Missouri. The
thunderstorms in the vicinity of the front will continue to grow
in coverage and strength during the early stages of the 00z TAFS
with general line movement to the south through the mid to late
evening and overnight. While VFR conditions are expected outside
of the convection, MVFR to IFR conditions can be expected within
the convection. Heavy rain will be likely as PW values will be
nearing 2.00 in. Thunderstorm coverage should diminish towards morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Tuesday morning FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>096-098-101>103.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Tuesday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann/Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KEAX 012114
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
414 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Very near term concerns hinge on overcoming a stout cap left from
last nights extensive convection. Visible satellite imagery notes
the thick/flat stratocu deck defining this cap which has spread
across most of the CWA this afternoon. Operational models are having
a hard time dealing with this stable environment and generating
convection across the southern 1/2 of the CWA. Closer look at the
NAM/GFS Bufr soundings, especially the GFS as it has correctly held
onto the cap longer, reveals just how strong the cap is. Short term
Hi-Res models are superior and have trended southward with bulk of
convection and focus on the outflow boundary left by this mornings
decayed convection. For now will pare back PoPs south of the MO
River and focus on far southern counties. Northern half will remain
dry.

Otherwise, a weak cold front will drift south through the CWA
overnight, likely stalling over the far southern CWA around sunrise.
Have added fog to the forecast due to near calm winds, clearing
skies across northern MO, very moist boundary layer and a now
climatologically favorable time of year for fog formation.

Weak high pressure tries to build in on Tuesday but probably won`t
have much luck due to the presence of the stalled front. Net effect
is near seasonal temperatures with drier conditions across far
northern MO but remaining humid south of the MO River.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Zonal flow aloft will take root Tuesday through Thursday with falling
pressures building in across the Central Plains late Tuesday and
Wednesday allowing the stalled front to return northward as a warm
front. As the low level jet reforms in response to falling pressures
the isentropic ascent above the warm front should allow scattered
elevated convection to form Tuesday evening and through the night.
Models due pick up on this and the isentropic ascent is quite
prevalent on the 310K surface. Have gone with high end chance PoPs.

Convection will exit the region Wednesday afternoon with dry and
hot conditions returning as an elevated mixed layer spreads in.

The dry weather won`t last long as the medium range models have
remained consistent in dragging a moderately strong cold front
through KS and MO Friday/Friday night. Timing may be a bit of a
problem for high temperatures but convection is pretty certain
during this period. The elevated mixed layer within the pre-frontal
zone should keep the region dry until fropa. Elevated post-frontal
convection likely to break out initially within the surface to h8
layer. A veering low-level jet will keep the convection going
through Friday night.

The weekend is shaping up to be gorgeous as our first true taste of
fall-like weather moves in with high temperatures in the 70s and
overnight lows generally in the 50s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Weak cold front will slide southeast through northern towards
central MO before stalling this evening. Scattered convection
expected to develop late afternoon from southeast KS through central
MO but should form south of KMCI/KMKC. So, will go with a VFR
forecast until pre-dawn hours. Will introduce MVFR fog then as mid
clouds clear with nearly calm winds and very moist boundary layer.
Late August and September are climatologically favorable period for
fog forming over the region. Latest NAM/GFS Bufr soundings and SREF
visibility prog support adding fog with dense fog possible at KSTJ.
Should mix out fog and any low clouds by mid morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...MJ






000
FXUS63 KEAX 012114
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
414 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Very near term concerns hinge on overcoming a stout cap left from
last nights extensive convection. Visible satellite imagery notes
the thick/flat stratocu deck defining this cap which has spread
across most of the CWA this afternoon. Operational models are having
a hard time dealing with this stable environment and generating
convection across the southern 1/2 of the CWA. Closer look at the
NAM/GFS Bufr soundings, especially the GFS as it has correctly held
onto the cap longer, reveals just how strong the cap is. Short term
Hi-Res models are superior and have trended southward with bulk of
convection and focus on the outflow boundary left by this mornings
decayed convection. For now will pare back PoPs south of the MO
River and focus on far southern counties. Northern half will remain
dry.

Otherwise, a weak cold front will drift south through the CWA
overnight, likely stalling over the far southern CWA around sunrise.
Have added fog to the forecast due to near calm winds, clearing
skies across northern MO, very moist boundary layer and a now
climatologically favorable time of year for fog formation.

Weak high pressure tries to build in on Tuesday but probably won`t
have much luck due to the presence of the stalled front. Net effect
is near seasonal temperatures with drier conditions across far
northern MO but remaining humid south of the MO River.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Zonal flow aloft will take root Tuesday through Thursday with falling
pressures building in across the Central Plains late Tuesday and
Wednesday allowing the stalled front to return northward as a warm
front. As the low level jet reforms in response to falling pressures
the isentropic ascent above the warm front should allow scattered
elevated convection to form Tuesday evening and through the night.
Models due pick up on this and the isentropic ascent is quite
prevalent on the 310K surface. Have gone with high end chance PoPs.

Convection will exit the region Wednesday afternoon with dry and
hot conditions returning as an elevated mixed layer spreads in.

The dry weather won`t last long as the medium range models have
remained consistent in dragging a moderately strong cold front
through KS and MO Friday/Friday night. Timing may be a bit of a
problem for high temperatures but convection is pretty certain
during this period. The elevated mixed layer within the pre-frontal
zone should keep the region dry until fropa. Elevated post-frontal
convection likely to break out initially within the surface to h8
layer. A veering low-level jet will keep the convection going
through Friday night.

The weekend is shaping up to be gorgeous as our first true taste of
fall-like weather moves in with high temperatures in the 70s and
overnight lows generally in the 50s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Weak cold front will slide southeast through northern towards
central MO before stalling this evening. Scattered convection
expected to develop late afternoon from southeast KS through central
MO but should form south of KMCI/KMKC. So, will go with a VFR
forecast until pre-dawn hours. Will introduce MVFR fog then as mid
clouds clear with nearly calm winds and very moist boundary layer.
Late August and September are climatologically favorable period for
fog forming over the region. Latest NAM/GFS Bufr soundings and SREF
visibility prog support adding fog with dense fog possible at KSTJ.
Should mix out fog and any low clouds by mid morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KLSX 012041
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
341 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

Heavy rain threat is the primary forecast challenge for tonight.
Another shortwave is moving east-southeast through the longwave
pattern over the Great Plains.  This shortwave will trigger a
south-southwesterly low level jet to increase again this evening,
aimed right at the low level baroclinic zone left over from last
night`s storms.  With plenty of moisture in place over the area and
a baroclinic zone that`s parallel or nearly parallel to the mid
level flow, expect that thunderstorms will form and train over parts
of Missouri and Illinois this evening and tonight.  All short range
guidance shows a tremendous amount of moisture convergence on the
nose of the low level jet tonight...generally along and south of the
I-70 corridor.  Think the axis of heaviest rain will actually be
along and south of the I-44 corridor in Missouri and along and south
of I-70 in Illinois, but I cannot rule out heavy rain a little
further north either.  QPF forecast paints a swath of heavy rain
along this axis between 1.5 and 2 inches.  With the potential for
locally higher amounts, and flash flood guidance running around
2-2.5 inches per hour, will go ahead and issue a flash flood watch
for those areas.  Further north across northeast Missouri and west
central Illinois, there could be some widely scattered/isolated
showers and thunderstorms, but I don`t think these will train and
cause any flooding issues.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

(Tuesday - Wednesday)

Flat zonal upper flow will remain in the wake of the strong
shortwave expected to pull away by Tuesday morning, with the hot
upper ridge that had given us our period of well above average temps
lurking just to the south.  The synoptic cold front will probably
linger into the STL metro area at the start of Tuesday, but its
associated precipitation likely well out ahead of it by this time
into southern MO and far southern IL.  Any slowing down of the
eastward progress of the shortwave though will favor some
precipitation of some sort extending back close to the STL metro
area.

The upper level pattern at this point is not very favorable for much
more southward progress of the front and so this boundary is
expected to stall somewhere in the southern CWA Tuesday and into
Tuesday night.  The old frontal boundary will probably lose a lot of
its moisture convergence strength Tuesday afternoon and evening and
so only isolated convection is expected in the absence of a low
level jet or upper level support.  The low level jet that will help
refire up a more organized system later on Tuesday night will
probably begin well to the west of our region and not really reach
our area until Wednesday if it holds.

It is for this reason that Wednesday PoPs were tempered until we see
a clearer signal for how this will evolve and develop.

Above average temps expected thru this period but not hot enough to
warrant any sort of heat headline.

(Thursday - Friday)

Well above average temps are currently anticipated during this
stretch, with max temps in the lo-mid 90s.  Peak heat index values
are looking to be from 100-105 for many areas on Thursday and,
depending on whether or not thunderstorms can get going along
approaching cold front, may very well see these values again
on Friday.

Fortunately, it is now September and so these shots of heat should
be relatively short-lived...with it all expected to come to an end
once the front moves thru Friday night.  Boosted PoPs to just below
likely for Friday night.

(Saturday - next Monday)

A well deserved cool period still in the offing in the wake of this
front with a 1025mb high pressure to be the dominant influence
during this period.  Max temps may struggle to exit the 70s in many
areas.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

Expect VFR flight conditions to prevail through much of the
afternoon. Scattered light showers will continue through the early
afternoon across parts of southeast Missouri. West to southwest
wind will gust to around 24kts. Expecting thunderstorms to
redevelop somewhere over west central or southwest Missouri later
this afternoon and spread northeast into parts of central and
eastern Missouri and southwest Illinois this evening. Storms will
likely train along and south of the I-70/I-44 corridor tonight
producing IFR conditions in heavy rain. Storms should move south
and begin to dissipate between 08-12Z.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail this afternoon at
Lambert. Latest thoughts are that thunderstorms will develop over
southwest/west central Missouri and spread east-northeast into
eastern Missouri by early this evening. A prolonged period of
thunderstorms with occasional heavy rain will likely impact the
terminal during the mid-late evening. Storms should move south of
the terminal between 06-11Z; timing is uncertain at this time.
After storms exit the STL Metro area, expect MVFR CIGs to rise to
VFR during the morning.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday
     morning FOR Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
     Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO-
     Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City
     MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday
     morning FOR Bond IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion
     IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
     Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KSGF 012018
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
318 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

...Heavy Rainfall Likely Tonight...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

The potential for severe storms late this afternoon and tonight
still remains somewhat unclear. An outflow boundary from earlier
storms had initially pushed into east-central Oklahoma and northern
Arkansas. This boundary is now retreating to the north and was
located from near Ponca City, OK to just north of Fayetteville, AR.
To the north of this boundary, the airmass has remained fairly
stable from southwestern Missouri into the eastern Ozarks. There
is also a synoptic frontal boundary in place from northwestern OK
into northeastern MO. The atmosphere ahead of this front was only
weakly unstable across northern and central MO. A weak surface wave
was also noted on this boundary across western OK.

As we head into late this afternoon and early this evening, short
wave energy currently across the central High Plains will continue
to shift east towards our region. As this happens, that outflow
boundary will continue to shift north while the synoptic front
nudges south. We are expecting convective initiation starting late
this afternoon...potentially on both of these features. We may see a
window of supercell potential across southeastern KS and
northeastern OK where strong instability will exist (south of that
retreating outflow boundary). Any supercells will tend to slowly
move east-southeast. Large hail would be the primary threat with
any supercells. We have left a limited tornado threat in as a low
level jet develops this evening along with the potential for some
backing of surface winds with that surface wave. Any remaining
boundaries will also have to be watched for a low level vorticity
source...especially if supercells tended to track along them
(versus crossing them).

Speaking of that low level jet, convection will really begin to
blossom later this evening as this feature interacts with the front
and possibly that outflow boundary. This should begin to shut the
window for supercells but open the door for training line segments
and convective clusters. There will still be the potential for some
damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief spin-up with any line
segments bowing to the east. Otherwise, heavy rainfall will be the
main concern as we get into later this evening and overnight.

The front is expected to slow down significantly late this evening
and stall across southern Missouri for much of the overnight
hours. As the front slides into the Ozarks, it is expected to
become oriented parallel to the upper level meridional flow.
This parallel alignment will work to slow the southern
progression of the front and allow showers and storms that develop
to move over the same locations for much of the overnight hours.
Additionally, that 30-35kt low level jet will begin to nose into
southwestern Missouri between 00z and 06z and feed very moist Gulf
air into the Ozarks. Forecast precipitable water values climb to
around 2 inches overnight. This will make for very efficient
rainfall production for showers and storms overnight. The right
entrance region of an upper level jet streak will also help to
produce deep layer lift across the area, only acting to enhance
the potential for heavy rainfall potential.

By early Tuesday morning the 925-850MB fronts will become the
focus for heavy rainfall as they settle across the I-44 corridor.
Current expectations are for 2-3 inches of rainfall with locally
higher amounts exceeding 4 inches in some areas.

The 925/850MB fronts will finally begin to shift south and east of
the region heading into Tuesday afternoon...taking the heaviest
rains with them.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

The upper level pattern is expected to change little through the
middle of the week with a flat ridge remaining over the southern
half of the CONUS. Despite the departing cold front from Tuesday,
some additional shortwaves are expected to move through the flat
upper level flow and interact with the continuing southerly flow
from the Gulf. This will allow for some lingering chances for
showers and storms through Wednesday afternoon.

A brief period of upper level ridging will limit the chances for
precipitation for the remainder of the week as the upper level
pattern begins to shift.

By early Saturday morning, the upper level pattern will become
more northwesterly as the upper level ridge shifts westward and
slides another front through the region.

The ridge will shift eastward once again on Sunday into Monday
behind Saturday`s cold front.

 &&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A temporary lull in shower and thunderstorm activity can be
expected for much of this afternoon with VFR prevailing. We will
continue to see brisk and gusty southerly winds this afternoon. We
are then expecting more thunderstorm development from late this
afternoon into this evening with periods of thunderstorms
overnight. MVFR and brief reductions to IFR can be expected with
these storms. The thunderstorms are then expected to end sometime
early Tuesday morning. We may see residual low clouds behind the
departing storms.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday
     morning FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>096-098-101>103.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday
     morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann/Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 012018
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
318 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

...Heavy Rainfall Likely Tonight...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

The potential for severe storms late this afternoon and tonight
still remains somewhat unclear. An outflow boundary from earlier
storms had initially pushed into east-central Oklahoma and northern
Arkansas. This boundary is now retreating to the north and was
located from near Ponca City, OK to just north of Fayetteville, AR.
To the north of this boundary, the airmass has remained fairly
stable from southwestern Missouri into the eastern Ozarks. There
is also a synoptic frontal boundary in place from northwestern OK
into northeastern MO. The atmosphere ahead of this front was only
weakly unstable across northern and central MO. A weak surface wave
was also noted on this boundary across western OK.

As we head into late this afternoon and early this evening, short
wave energy currently across the central High Plains will continue
to shift east towards our region. As this happens, that outflow
boundary will continue to shift north while the synoptic front
nudges south. We are expecting convective initiation starting late
this afternoon...potentially on both of these features. We may see a
window of supercell potential across southeastern KS and
northeastern OK where strong instability will exist (south of that
retreating outflow boundary). Any supercells will tend to slowly
move east-southeast. Large hail would be the primary threat with
any supercells. We have left a limited tornado threat in as a low
level jet develops this evening along with the potential for some
backing of surface winds with that surface wave. Any remaining
boundaries will also have to be watched for a low level vorticity
source...especially if supercells tended to track along them
(versus crossing them).

Speaking of that low level jet, convection will really begin to
blossom later this evening as this feature interacts with the front
and possibly that outflow boundary. This should begin to shut the
window for supercells but open the door for training line segments
and convective clusters. There will still be the potential for some
damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief spin-up with any line
segments bowing to the east. Otherwise, heavy rainfall will be the
main concern as we get into later this evening and overnight.

The front is expected to slow down significantly late this evening
and stall across southern Missouri for much of the overnight
hours. As the front slides into the Ozarks, it is expected to
become oriented parallel to the upper level meridional flow.
This parallel alignment will work to slow the southern
progression of the front and allow showers and storms that develop
to move over the same locations for much of the overnight hours.
Additionally, that 30-35kt low level jet will begin to nose into
southwestern Missouri between 00z and 06z and feed very moist Gulf
air into the Ozarks. Forecast precipitable water values climb to
around 2 inches overnight. This will make for very efficient
rainfall production for showers and storms overnight. The right
entrance region of an upper level jet streak will also help to
produce deep layer lift across the area, only acting to enhance
the potential for heavy rainfall potential.

By early Tuesday morning the 925-850MB fronts will become the
focus for heavy rainfall as they settle across the I-44 corridor.
Current expectations are for 2-3 inches of rainfall with locally
higher amounts exceeding 4 inches in some areas.

The 925/850MB fronts will finally begin to shift south and east of
the region heading into Tuesday afternoon...taking the heaviest
rains with them.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

The upper level pattern is expected to change little through the
middle of the week with a flat ridge remaining over the southern
half of the CONUS. Despite the departing cold front from Tuesday,
some additional shortwaves are expected to move through the flat
upper level flow and interact with the continuing southerly flow
from the Gulf. This will allow for some lingering chances for
showers and storms through Wednesday afternoon.

A brief period of upper level ridging will limit the chances for
precipitation for the remainder of the week as the upper level
pattern begins to shift.

By early Saturday morning, the upper level pattern will become
more northwesterly as the upper level ridge shifts westward and
slides another front through the region.

The ridge will shift eastward once again on Sunday into Monday
behind Saturday`s cold front.

 &&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A temporary lull in shower and thunderstorm activity can be
expected for much of this afternoon with VFR prevailing. We will
continue to see brisk and gusty southerly winds this afternoon. We
are then expecting more thunderstorm development from late this
afternoon into this evening with periods of thunderstorms
overnight. MVFR and brief reductions to IFR can be expected with
these storms. The thunderstorms are then expected to end sometime
early Tuesday morning. We may see residual low clouds behind the
departing storms.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday
     morning FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>096-098-101>103.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday
     morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann/Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KLSX 012011
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
311 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

Heavy rain threat is the primary forecast challenge for tonight.
Another shortwave is moving east-southeast through the longwave
pattern over the Great Plains.  This shortwave will trigger a
south-southwesterly low level jet to increase again this evening,
aimed right at the low level baroclinic zone left over from last
night`s storms.  With plenty of moisture in place over the area and
a baroclinic zone that`s parallel or nearly parallel to the mid
level flow, expect that thunderstorms will form and train over parts
of Missouri and Illinois this evening and tonight.  All short range
guidance shows a tremendous amount of moisture convergence on the
nose of the low level jet tonight...generally along and south of the
I-70 corridor.  Think the axis of heaviest rain will actually be
along and south of the I-44 corridor in Missouri and along and south
of I-70 in Illinois, but I cannot rule out heavy rain a little
further north either.  QPF forecast paints a swath of heavy rain
along this axis between 1.5 and 2 inches.  With the potential for
locally higher amounts, and flash flood guidance running around
2-2.5 inches per hour, will go ahead and issue a flash flood watch
for those areas.  Further north across northeast Missouri and west
central Illinois, there could be some widely scattered/isolated
showers and thunderstorms, but I don`t think these will train and
cause any flooding issues.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

The front and/or effective boundary should linger across the
region on Tue/Tue night before lifting northeastward as a warm
front on Wed/Wed night. The precipitation threat will also lift
northeastward with the warm front during the middle of the week.
Model solutions then depict a cold front moving into the area
towards the end of the week and into next weekend, bringing a
chance of rain and a cooler air mass into the region.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

Expect VFR flight conditions to prevail through much of the
afternoon. Scattered light showers will continue through the early
afternoon across parts of southeast Missouri. West to southwest
wind will gust to around 24kts. Expecting thunderstorms to
redevelop somewhere over west central or southwest Missouri later
this afternoon and spread northeast into parts of central and
eastern Missouri and southwest Illinois this evening. Storms will
likely train along and south of the I-70/I-44 corridor tonight
producing IFR conditions in heavy rain. Storms should move south
and begin to dissipate between 08-12Z.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail this afternoon at
Lambert. Latest thoughts are that thunderstorms will develop over
southwest/west central Missouri and spread east-northeast into
eastern Missouri by early this evening. A prolonged period of
thunderstorms with occasional heavy rain will likely impact the
terminal during the mid-late evening. Storms should move south of
the terminal between 06-11Z; timing is uncertain at this time.
After storms exit the STL Metro area, expect MVFR CIGs to rise to
VFR during the morning.

Carney

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     72  87  71  90 /  90  20  20  40
Quincy          65  83  66  88 /  20   5  10  40
Columbia        68  87  68  91 /  80  10  30  40
Jefferson City  69  87  69  91 /  90  20  30  40
Salem           71  85  68  88 /  90  50  20  30
Farmington      72  85  68  87 /  90  50  30  40

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday
     morning FOR Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
     Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO-
     Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City
     MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday
     morning FOR Bond IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion
     IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
     Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 012011
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
311 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

Heavy rain threat is the primary forecast challenge for tonight.
Another shortwave is moving east-southeast through the longwave
pattern over the Great Plains.  This shortwave will trigger a
south-southwesterly low level jet to increase again this evening,
aimed right at the low level baroclinic zone left over from last
night`s storms.  With plenty of moisture in place over the area and
a baroclinic zone that`s parallel or nearly parallel to the mid
level flow, expect that thunderstorms will form and train over parts
of Missouri and Illinois this evening and tonight.  All short range
guidance shows a tremendous amount of moisture convergence on the
nose of the low level jet tonight...generally along and south of the
I-70 corridor.  Think the axis of heaviest rain will actually be
along and south of the I-44 corridor in Missouri and along and south
of I-70 in Illinois, but I cannot rule out heavy rain a little
further north either.  QPF forecast paints a swath of heavy rain
along this axis between 1.5 and 2 inches.  With the potential for
locally higher amounts, and flash flood guidance running around
2-2.5 inches per hour, will go ahead and issue a flash flood watch
for those areas.  Further north across northeast Missouri and west
central Illinois, there could be some widely scattered/isolated
showers and thunderstorms, but I don`t think these will train and
cause any flooding issues.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

The front and/or effective boundary should linger across the
region on Tue/Tue night before lifting northeastward as a warm
front on Wed/Wed night. The precipitation threat will also lift
northeastward with the warm front during the middle of the week.
Model solutions then depict a cold front moving into the area
towards the end of the week and into next weekend, bringing a
chance of rain and a cooler air mass into the region.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

Expect VFR flight conditions to prevail through much of the
afternoon. Scattered light showers will continue through the early
afternoon across parts of southeast Missouri. West to southwest
wind will gust to around 24kts. Expecting thunderstorms to
redevelop somewhere over west central or southwest Missouri later
this afternoon and spread northeast into parts of central and
eastern Missouri and southwest Illinois this evening. Storms will
likely train along and south of the I-70/I-44 corridor tonight
producing IFR conditions in heavy rain. Storms should move south
and begin to dissipate between 08-12Z.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail this afternoon at
Lambert. Latest thoughts are that thunderstorms will develop over
southwest/west central Missouri and spread east-northeast into
eastern Missouri by early this evening. A prolonged period of
thunderstorms with occasional heavy rain will likely impact the
terminal during the mid-late evening. Storms should move south of
the terminal between 06-11Z; timing is uncertain at this time.
After storms exit the STL Metro area, expect MVFR CIGs to rise to
VFR during the morning.

Carney

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     72  87  71  90 /  90  20  20  40
Quincy          65  83  66  88 /  20   5  10  40
Columbia        68  87  68  91 /  80  10  30  40
Jefferson City  69  87  69  91 /  90  20  30  40
Salem           71  85  68  88 /  90  50  20  30
Farmington      72  85  68  87 /  90  50  30  40

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday
     morning FOR Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
     Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO-
     Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City
     MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday
     morning FOR Bond IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion
     IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
     Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 011758
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1258 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 924 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Shortwave continues to move through the area this morning. Two
bands of showers and embedded storms persist. The first extending
from Fort Scott, KS to the Lake of the Ozarks and the second
extending from the four states region northeastward to areas
along/southeast of the I-44 corridor. This activity will persist
through the morning hours, tapering off as the low level jet
weakens and veers. At least partial clearing is expected this
afternoon, which will result in steamy conditions, recharging
instability across the region.

Low level outflow has moved to the southeast of the area. This and
the large scale cold front to our northwest will become players in
our chances for redevelopment of storms later this afternoon and
tonight. The full extent of destabilization is somewhat in
question. A quicker recharge of instability may result in storms
firing quicker. The better coverage of showers and storms will
more than likely occur when the low level jet kicks back into gear
this evening into the overnight hours. Damaging winds and hail
will be the main severe risks with initial convection, though will
need to watch any backing of low level winds which will support a
limited tornado risk. Heading into the overnight hours, we should
transition to a heavy rain, localized flooding risk dependent on
where cell training sets up.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Active start this morning with a QLCS moving across southeast
Kansas into western Missouri as of 3 am. This line of storms has
been producing 40 to 50 mph winds occasionally up to near 60 in
isolated spots. The latest 4KM WRF shows this line of storms
making its way down to the Springfield area by sunrise and slowly
dissipating through mid morning. The main threat this morning will
be frequent lightning and gusty winds along with very heavy
downpours. Areas north and west of I-44 will likely see between
half an inch to an inch of rainfall this morning with locally
heavier amounts.

The big question for today is how this early morning convection
will play into the afternoon heating and evening convection.
Current thinking is this activity will end by late morning and
clearing will occur by midday. Temperatures will climb back into
the upper 80s to near 90 south of where the frontal boundary sets
up. The boundary will likely setup from near Pittsburg Kansas to
central Missouri by late afternoon and evening.

Forecast MLCape values will be between 2000 and 3000 J/KG. Bulk
shear will be on the order of 40 to 50 knots. A wave of low
pressure will develop over south central Kansas late
afternoon/evening and ride up along the frontal boundary. Low
level winds may back somewhat and slightly enhance low-level shear
for a slight tornado threat into the evening hours for portions of
southeast Kansas and southwestern Missouri. SPC has the area in a
slight risk for severe storms today.

A few supercells initially will be possible eventually merging
into a QLCS and linear storm complex late evening and overnight
across the Missouri Ozarks. The overall main threat will be
damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and large hail up to golf balls
size possible. Tornado threat will be limited and mainly for the
early evening hours.

Late this evening into the overnight hours...the main concerns
will turn into more of a hydro or heavy rainfall situation
depending on where these storms will train over the same area.
Storm total rainfall possible from today through Tuesday night is
between 1 to 2 inches south of I-44 and 2 to 4 inches north of
I-44 with locally heavier amounts. The ground should be able to
take several inches being so dry lately. The problem to watch is
rainfall rates and training of storms. There will be a limited or
localized flash flooding threat but confidence is too low to issue
any watch at this time. Will like to see what rainfall this
morning`s convection produces and have the day shift take another
look at any headlines that might be needed for tonight`s round of
storms.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

The front stalls out Tuesday right over the area and additional
scattered storms will be around Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
front eventually lifts back northward on Wednesday with more
scattered storms possible over central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks.

Upper level ridge of high pressure briefly builds in for Thursday
with drier and warmer weather for the end of the week. A Canadian
front makes a run for the area late Friday into Saturday and slows
down. Scattered convection will be in the forecast with this slow
moving front for the weekend. Followed more closely with the ECMWF
for the weekend with the front clearing through the area by Sunday
and surface high builds in for Sunday. Slightly cooler and drier
airmass will follow with below average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A temporary lull in shower and thunderstorm activity can be
expected for much of this afternoon with VFR prevailing. We will
continue to see brisk and gusty southerly winds this afternoon. We
are then expecting more thunderstorm development from late this
afternoon into this evening with periods of thunderstorms
overnight. MVFR and brief reductions to IFR can be expected with
these storms. The thunderstorms are then expected to end sometime
early Tuesday morning. We may see residual low clouds behind the
departing storms.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 011758
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1258 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 924 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Shortwave continues to move through the area this morning. Two
bands of showers and embedded storms persist. The first extending
from Fort Scott, KS to the Lake of the Ozarks and the second
extending from the four states region northeastward to areas
along/southeast of the I-44 corridor. This activity will persist
through the morning hours, tapering off as the low level jet
weakens and veers. At least partial clearing is expected this
afternoon, which will result in steamy conditions, recharging
instability across the region.

Low level outflow has moved to the southeast of the area. This and
the large scale cold front to our northwest will become players in
our chances for redevelopment of storms later this afternoon and
tonight. The full extent of destabilization is somewhat in
question. A quicker recharge of instability may result in storms
firing quicker. The better coverage of showers and storms will
more than likely occur when the low level jet kicks back into gear
this evening into the overnight hours. Damaging winds and hail
will be the main severe risks with initial convection, though will
need to watch any backing of low level winds which will support a
limited tornado risk. Heading into the overnight hours, we should
transition to a heavy rain, localized flooding risk dependent on
where cell training sets up.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Active start this morning with a QLCS moving across southeast
Kansas into western Missouri as of 3 am. This line of storms has
been producing 40 to 50 mph winds occasionally up to near 60 in
isolated spots. The latest 4KM WRF shows this line of storms
making its way down to the Springfield area by sunrise and slowly
dissipating through mid morning. The main threat this morning will
be frequent lightning and gusty winds along with very heavy
downpours. Areas north and west of I-44 will likely see between
half an inch to an inch of rainfall this morning with locally
heavier amounts.

The big question for today is how this early morning convection
will play into the afternoon heating and evening convection.
Current thinking is this activity will end by late morning and
clearing will occur by midday. Temperatures will climb back into
the upper 80s to near 90 south of where the frontal boundary sets
up. The boundary will likely setup from near Pittsburg Kansas to
central Missouri by late afternoon and evening.

Forecast MLCape values will be between 2000 and 3000 J/KG. Bulk
shear will be on the order of 40 to 50 knots. A wave of low
pressure will develop over south central Kansas late
afternoon/evening and ride up along the frontal boundary. Low
level winds may back somewhat and slightly enhance low-level shear
for a slight tornado threat into the evening hours for portions of
southeast Kansas and southwestern Missouri. SPC has the area in a
slight risk for severe storms today.

A few supercells initially will be possible eventually merging
into a QLCS and linear storm complex late evening and overnight
across the Missouri Ozarks. The overall main threat will be
damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and large hail up to golf balls
size possible. Tornado threat will be limited and mainly for the
early evening hours.

Late this evening into the overnight hours...the main concerns
will turn into more of a hydro or heavy rainfall situation
depending on where these storms will train over the same area.
Storm total rainfall possible from today through Tuesday night is
between 1 to 2 inches south of I-44 and 2 to 4 inches north of
I-44 with locally heavier amounts. The ground should be able to
take several inches being so dry lately. The problem to watch is
rainfall rates and training of storms. There will be a limited or
localized flash flooding threat but confidence is too low to issue
any watch at this time. Will like to see what rainfall this
morning`s convection produces and have the day shift take another
look at any headlines that might be needed for tonight`s round of
storms.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

The front stalls out Tuesday right over the area and additional
scattered storms will be around Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
front eventually lifts back northward on Wednesday with more
scattered storms possible over central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks.

Upper level ridge of high pressure briefly builds in for Thursday
with drier and warmer weather for the end of the week. A Canadian
front makes a run for the area late Friday into Saturday and slows
down. Scattered convection will be in the forecast with this slow
moving front for the weekend. Followed more closely with the ECMWF
for the weekend with the front clearing through the area by Sunday
and surface high builds in for Sunday. Slightly cooler and drier
airmass will follow with below average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A temporary lull in shower and thunderstorm activity can be
expected for much of this afternoon with VFR prevailing. We will
continue to see brisk and gusty southerly winds this afternoon. We
are then expecting more thunderstorm development from late this
afternoon into this evening with periods of thunderstorms
overnight. MVFR and brief reductions to IFR can be expected with
these storms. The thunderstorms are then expected to end sometime
early Tuesday morning. We may see residual low clouds behind the
departing storms.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 011758
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1258 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 924 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Shortwave continues to move through the area this morning. Two
bands of showers and embedded storms persist. The first extending
from Fort Scott, KS to the Lake of the Ozarks and the second
extending from the four states region northeastward to areas
along/southeast of the I-44 corridor. This activity will persist
through the morning hours, tapering off as the low level jet
weakens and veers. At least partial clearing is expected this
afternoon, which will result in steamy conditions, recharging
instability across the region.

Low level outflow has moved to the southeast of the area. This and
the large scale cold front to our northwest will become players in
our chances for redevelopment of storms later this afternoon and
tonight. The full extent of destabilization is somewhat in
question. A quicker recharge of instability may result in storms
firing quicker. The better coverage of showers and storms will
more than likely occur when the low level jet kicks back into gear
this evening into the overnight hours. Damaging winds and hail
will be the main severe risks with initial convection, though will
need to watch any backing of low level winds which will support a
limited tornado risk. Heading into the overnight hours, we should
transition to a heavy rain, localized flooding risk dependent on
where cell training sets up.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Active start this morning with a QLCS moving across southeast
Kansas into western Missouri as of 3 am. This line of storms has
been producing 40 to 50 mph winds occasionally up to near 60 in
isolated spots. The latest 4KM WRF shows this line of storms
making its way down to the Springfield area by sunrise and slowly
dissipating through mid morning. The main threat this morning will
be frequent lightning and gusty winds along with very heavy
downpours. Areas north and west of I-44 will likely see between
half an inch to an inch of rainfall this morning with locally
heavier amounts.

The big question for today is how this early morning convection
will play into the afternoon heating and evening convection.
Current thinking is this activity will end by late morning and
clearing will occur by midday. Temperatures will climb back into
the upper 80s to near 90 south of where the frontal boundary sets
up. The boundary will likely setup from near Pittsburg Kansas to
central Missouri by late afternoon and evening.

Forecast MLCape values will be between 2000 and 3000 J/KG. Bulk
shear will be on the order of 40 to 50 knots. A wave of low
pressure will develop over south central Kansas late
afternoon/evening and ride up along the frontal boundary. Low
level winds may back somewhat and slightly enhance low-level shear
for a slight tornado threat into the evening hours for portions of
southeast Kansas and southwestern Missouri. SPC has the area in a
slight risk for severe storms today.

A few supercells initially will be possible eventually merging
into a QLCS and linear storm complex late evening and overnight
across the Missouri Ozarks. The overall main threat will be
damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and large hail up to golf balls
size possible. Tornado threat will be limited and mainly for the
early evening hours.

Late this evening into the overnight hours...the main concerns
will turn into more of a hydro or heavy rainfall situation
depending on where these storms will train over the same area.
Storm total rainfall possible from today through Tuesday night is
between 1 to 2 inches south of I-44 and 2 to 4 inches north of
I-44 with locally heavier amounts. The ground should be able to
take several inches being so dry lately. The problem to watch is
rainfall rates and training of storms. There will be a limited or
localized flash flooding threat but confidence is too low to issue
any watch at this time. Will like to see what rainfall this
morning`s convection produces and have the day shift take another
look at any headlines that might be needed for tonight`s round of
storms.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

The front stalls out Tuesday right over the area and additional
scattered storms will be around Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
front eventually lifts back northward on Wednesday with more
scattered storms possible over central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks.

Upper level ridge of high pressure briefly builds in for Thursday
with drier and warmer weather for the end of the week. A Canadian
front makes a run for the area late Friday into Saturday and slows
down. Scattered convection will be in the forecast with this slow
moving front for the weekend. Followed more closely with the ECMWF
for the weekend with the front clearing through the area by Sunday
and surface high builds in for Sunday. Slightly cooler and drier
airmass will follow with below average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A temporary lull in shower and thunderstorm activity can be
expected for much of this afternoon with VFR prevailing. We will
continue to see brisk and gusty southerly winds this afternoon. We
are then expecting more thunderstorm development from late this
afternoon into this evening with periods of thunderstorms
overnight. MVFR and brief reductions to IFR can be expected with
these storms. The thunderstorms are then expected to end sometime
early Tuesday morning. We may see residual low clouds behind the
departing storms.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 011758
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1258 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 924 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Shortwave continues to move through the area this morning. Two
bands of showers and embedded storms persist. The first extending
from Fort Scott, KS to the Lake of the Ozarks and the second
extending from the four states region northeastward to areas
along/southeast of the I-44 corridor. This activity will persist
through the morning hours, tapering off as the low level jet
weakens and veers. At least partial clearing is expected this
afternoon, which will result in steamy conditions, recharging
instability across the region.

Low level outflow has moved to the southeast of the area. This and
the large scale cold front to our northwest will become players in
our chances for redevelopment of storms later this afternoon and
tonight. The full extent of destabilization is somewhat in
question. A quicker recharge of instability may result in storms
firing quicker. The better coverage of showers and storms will
more than likely occur when the low level jet kicks back into gear
this evening into the overnight hours. Damaging winds and hail
will be the main severe risks with initial convection, though will
need to watch any backing of low level winds which will support a
limited tornado risk. Heading into the overnight hours, we should
transition to a heavy rain, localized flooding risk dependent on
where cell training sets up.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Active start this morning with a QLCS moving across southeast
Kansas into western Missouri as of 3 am. This line of storms has
been producing 40 to 50 mph winds occasionally up to near 60 in
isolated spots. The latest 4KM WRF shows this line of storms
making its way down to the Springfield area by sunrise and slowly
dissipating through mid morning. The main threat this morning will
be frequent lightning and gusty winds along with very heavy
downpours. Areas north and west of I-44 will likely see between
half an inch to an inch of rainfall this morning with locally
heavier amounts.

The big question for today is how this early morning convection
will play into the afternoon heating and evening convection.
Current thinking is this activity will end by late morning and
clearing will occur by midday. Temperatures will climb back into
the upper 80s to near 90 south of where the frontal boundary sets
up. The boundary will likely setup from near Pittsburg Kansas to
central Missouri by late afternoon and evening.

Forecast MLCape values will be between 2000 and 3000 J/KG. Bulk
shear will be on the order of 40 to 50 knots. A wave of low
pressure will develop over south central Kansas late
afternoon/evening and ride up along the frontal boundary. Low
level winds may back somewhat and slightly enhance low-level shear
for a slight tornado threat into the evening hours for portions of
southeast Kansas and southwestern Missouri. SPC has the area in a
slight risk for severe storms today.

A few supercells initially will be possible eventually merging
into a QLCS and linear storm complex late evening and overnight
across the Missouri Ozarks. The overall main threat will be
damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and large hail up to golf balls
size possible. Tornado threat will be limited and mainly for the
early evening hours.

Late this evening into the overnight hours...the main concerns
will turn into more of a hydro or heavy rainfall situation
depending on where these storms will train over the same area.
Storm total rainfall possible from today through Tuesday night is
between 1 to 2 inches south of I-44 and 2 to 4 inches north of
I-44 with locally heavier amounts. The ground should be able to
take several inches being so dry lately. The problem to watch is
rainfall rates and training of storms. There will be a limited or
localized flash flooding threat but confidence is too low to issue
any watch at this time. Will like to see what rainfall this
morning`s convection produces and have the day shift take another
look at any headlines that might be needed for tonight`s round of
storms.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

The front stalls out Tuesday right over the area and additional
scattered storms will be around Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
front eventually lifts back northward on Wednesday with more
scattered storms possible over central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks.

Upper level ridge of high pressure briefly builds in for Thursday
with drier and warmer weather for the end of the week. A Canadian
front makes a run for the area late Friday into Saturday and slows
down. Scattered convection will be in the forecast with this slow
moving front for the weekend. Followed more closely with the ECMWF
for the weekend with the front clearing through the area by Sunday
and surface high builds in for Sunday. Slightly cooler and drier
airmass will follow with below average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A temporary lull in shower and thunderstorm activity can be
expected for much of this afternoon with VFR prevailing. We will
continue to see brisk and gusty southerly winds this afternoon. We
are then expecting more thunderstorm development from late this
afternoon into this evening with periods of thunderstorms
overnight. MVFR and brief reductions to IFR can be expected with
these storms. The thunderstorms are then expected to end sometime
early Tuesday morning. We may see residual low clouds behind the
departing storms.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KEAX 011756
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1256 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A line of storms and trailing stratiform will continue to shift east
this morning, and should generally clear out of the northern 2/3rds
of the forecast area shortly after sunrise. The southern edge of the
line may trail a bit along the northern edge of the low level jet,
possibly allowing showers and storms to linger along our southern
border through late morning.

This morning`s storms will most likely leave one or more outflow
boundaries across central MO for this afternoon, and the synoptic
cold front currently in southeast Nebraska will also drift southward
today and stall north of the Ozarks. These boundaries could serve as
a focus for afternoon convection, especially as a weak shortwave
trough passes overhead during the afternoon and early evening hours.
The strength of any storms that develop will depend on how much
clearing occurs and thus how much instability can build today, but
at least a few strong to severe storms are possible along the cold
front or any of the lingering outflow boundaries, mainly south of
I-70. Deep layer shear values will increase into the 40-50 kt range
by mid afternoon across central MO, supporting organized convection
should any robust updrafts develop in our CWA. Damaging winds and
large hail are both possible with any stronger storms that develop.
As the shortwave trough pushes southeast later this afternoon into
the evening, the cold front and any other lingering boundaries will
be driven southeast out of the forecast area for the later evening
and overnight hours.

Quiet conditions and near to slightly below normal temperatures are
expected for Tuesday with the front remaining south of the forecast
area; however, developing lee side low pressure and resultant south
southwest flow at low levels will help drive the boundary back north
for Wednesday, bringing another chance of scattered storms and above
normal temperatures back into the CWA. Strong/severe storms are not
expected due to lacking focus for convection and fairly weak flow
aloft.

Warm temperatures will continue for Thursday, then a much stronger
cold front is expected to dive southward into the region on Friday
or Friday night. Showers and storms are expected from late Thursday
night through Saturday morning in association with this system, and
temperatures should drop significantly by the weekend in its wake.
Highs Saturday and Sunday may only top out in the mid 70s as 850
temperatures drop into the 7 to 10 C range, and dry conditions are
anticipated behind the front for the remainder of Saturday through
the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Weak cold front will slide southeast through northern towards
central MO before stalling this evening. Scattered convection
expected to develop late afternoon from southeast KS through central
MO but should form south of KMCI/KMKC. So, will go with a VFR
forecast until pre-dawn hours. Will introduce MVFR fog then as mid
clouds clear with nearly calm winds and very moist boundary layer.
Late August and September are climatologically favorable period for
fog forming over the region. Latest NAM/GFS Bufr soundings and SREF
visibility prog support adding fog with dense fog possible at KSTJ.
Should mix out fog and any low clouds by mid morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KEAX 011756
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1256 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A line of storms and trailing stratiform will continue to shift east
this morning, and should generally clear out of the northern 2/3rds
of the forecast area shortly after sunrise. The southern edge of the
line may trail a bit along the northern edge of the low level jet,
possibly allowing showers and storms to linger along our southern
border through late morning.

This morning`s storms will most likely leave one or more outflow
boundaries across central MO for this afternoon, and the synoptic
cold front currently in southeast Nebraska will also drift southward
today and stall north of the Ozarks. These boundaries could serve as
a focus for afternoon convection, especially as a weak shortwave
trough passes overhead during the afternoon and early evening hours.
The strength of any storms that develop will depend on how much
clearing occurs and thus how much instability can build today, but
at least a few strong to severe storms are possible along the cold
front or any of the lingering outflow boundaries, mainly south of
I-70. Deep layer shear values will increase into the 40-50 kt range
by mid afternoon across central MO, supporting organized convection
should any robust updrafts develop in our CWA. Damaging winds and
large hail are both possible with any stronger storms that develop.
As the shortwave trough pushes southeast later this afternoon into
the evening, the cold front and any other lingering boundaries will
be driven southeast out of the forecast area for the later evening
and overnight hours.

Quiet conditions and near to slightly below normal temperatures are
expected for Tuesday with the front remaining south of the forecast
area; however, developing lee side low pressure and resultant south
southwest flow at low levels will help drive the boundary back north
for Wednesday, bringing another chance of scattered storms and above
normal temperatures back into the CWA. Strong/severe storms are not
expected due to lacking focus for convection and fairly weak flow
aloft.

Warm temperatures will continue for Thursday, then a much stronger
cold front is expected to dive southward into the region on Friday
or Friday night. Showers and storms are expected from late Thursday
night through Saturday morning in association with this system, and
temperatures should drop significantly by the weekend in its wake.
Highs Saturday and Sunday may only top out in the mid 70s as 850
temperatures drop into the 7 to 10 C range, and dry conditions are
anticipated behind the front for the remainder of Saturday through
the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Weak cold front will slide southeast through northern towards
central MO before stalling this evening. Scattered convection
expected to develop late afternoon from southeast KS through central
MO but should form south of KMCI/KMKC. So, will go with a VFR
forecast until pre-dawn hours. Will introduce MVFR fog then as mid
clouds clear with nearly calm winds and very moist boundary layer.
Late August and September are climatologically favorable period for
fog forming over the region. Latest NAM/GFS Bufr soundings and SREF
visibility prog support adding fog with dense fog possible at KSTJ.
Should mix out fog and any low clouds by mid morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KEAX 011756
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1256 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A line of storms and trailing stratiform will continue to shift east
this morning, and should generally clear out of the northern 2/3rds
of the forecast area shortly after sunrise. The southern edge of the
line may trail a bit along the northern edge of the low level jet,
possibly allowing showers and storms to linger along our southern
border through late morning.

This morning`s storms will most likely leave one or more outflow
boundaries across central MO for this afternoon, and the synoptic
cold front currently in southeast Nebraska will also drift southward
today and stall north of the Ozarks. These boundaries could serve as
a focus for afternoon convection, especially as a weak shortwave
trough passes overhead during the afternoon and early evening hours.
The strength of any storms that develop will depend on how much
clearing occurs and thus how much instability can build today, but
at least a few strong to severe storms are possible along the cold
front or any of the lingering outflow boundaries, mainly south of
I-70. Deep layer shear values will increase into the 40-50 kt range
by mid afternoon across central MO, supporting organized convection
should any robust updrafts develop in our CWA. Damaging winds and
large hail are both possible with any stronger storms that develop.
As the shortwave trough pushes southeast later this afternoon into
the evening, the cold front and any other lingering boundaries will
be driven southeast out of the forecast area for the later evening
and overnight hours.

Quiet conditions and near to slightly below normal temperatures are
expected for Tuesday with the front remaining south of the forecast
area; however, developing lee side low pressure and resultant south
southwest flow at low levels will help drive the boundary back north
for Wednesday, bringing another chance of scattered storms and above
normal temperatures back into the CWA. Strong/severe storms are not
expected due to lacking focus for convection and fairly weak flow
aloft.

Warm temperatures will continue for Thursday, then a much stronger
cold front is expected to dive southward into the region on Friday
or Friday night. Showers and storms are expected from late Thursday
night through Saturday morning in association with this system, and
temperatures should drop significantly by the weekend in its wake.
Highs Saturday and Sunday may only top out in the mid 70s as 850
temperatures drop into the 7 to 10 C range, and dry conditions are
anticipated behind the front for the remainder of Saturday through
the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Weak cold front will slide southeast through northern towards
central MO before stalling this evening. Scattered convection
expected to develop late afternoon from southeast KS through central
MO but should form south of KMCI/KMKC. So, will go with a VFR
forecast until pre-dawn hours. Will introduce MVFR fog then as mid
clouds clear with nearly calm winds and very moist boundary layer.
Late August and September are climatologically favorable period for
fog forming over the region. Latest NAM/GFS Bufr soundings and SREF
visibility prog support adding fog with dense fog possible at KSTJ.
Should mix out fog and any low clouds by mid morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KEAX 011756
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1256 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A line of storms and trailing stratiform will continue to shift east
this morning, and should generally clear out of the northern 2/3rds
of the forecast area shortly after sunrise. The southern edge of the
line may trail a bit along the northern edge of the low level jet,
possibly allowing showers and storms to linger along our southern
border through late morning.

This morning`s storms will most likely leave one or more outflow
boundaries across central MO for this afternoon, and the synoptic
cold front currently in southeast Nebraska will also drift southward
today and stall north of the Ozarks. These boundaries could serve as
a focus for afternoon convection, especially as a weak shortwave
trough passes overhead during the afternoon and early evening hours.
The strength of any storms that develop will depend on how much
clearing occurs and thus how much instability can build today, but
at least a few strong to severe storms are possible along the cold
front or any of the lingering outflow boundaries, mainly south of
I-70. Deep layer shear values will increase into the 40-50 kt range
by mid afternoon across central MO, supporting organized convection
should any robust updrafts develop in our CWA. Damaging winds and
large hail are both possible with any stronger storms that develop.
As the shortwave trough pushes southeast later this afternoon into
the evening, the cold front and any other lingering boundaries will
be driven southeast out of the forecast area for the later evening
and overnight hours.

Quiet conditions and near to slightly below normal temperatures are
expected for Tuesday with the front remaining south of the forecast
area; however, developing lee side low pressure and resultant south
southwest flow at low levels will help drive the boundary back north
for Wednesday, bringing another chance of scattered storms and above
normal temperatures back into the CWA. Strong/severe storms are not
expected due to lacking focus for convection and fairly weak flow
aloft.

Warm temperatures will continue for Thursday, then a much stronger
cold front is expected to dive southward into the region on Friday
or Friday night. Showers and storms are expected from late Thursday
night through Saturday morning in association with this system, and
temperatures should drop significantly by the weekend in its wake.
Highs Saturday and Sunday may only top out in the mid 70s as 850
temperatures drop into the 7 to 10 C range, and dry conditions are
anticipated behind the front for the remainder of Saturday through
the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Weak cold front will slide southeast through northern towards
central MO before stalling this evening. Scattered convection
expected to develop late afternoon from southeast KS through central
MO but should form south of KMCI/KMKC. So, will go with a VFR
forecast until pre-dawn hours. Will introduce MVFR fog then as mid
clouds clear with nearly calm winds and very moist boundary layer.
Late August and September are climatologically favorable period for
fog forming over the region. Latest NAM/GFS Bufr soundings and SREF
visibility prog support adding fog with dense fog possible at KSTJ.
Should mix out fog and any low clouds by mid morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KLSX 011752
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1252 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

There are three interconnected forecast issues covering today
through tomorrow: convective timing, the potential for severe
weather, and the potential for heavy rainfall. The main factors
involved with the forecast are the ongoing early morning
convection with its outflow boundaries, an upstream synoptic cold
front, and a couple of shortwaves moving through a broad longwave
trough.

If the early morning convection dissipates across our area, then the
air mass is likely to destabilize ahead of the approaching synoptic
cold front. Models are forecasting up to 2000-3000 J/kg of CAPE
and between 30-60 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear across most of the CWA
during the afternoon/evening hours ahead of the front. These
parameters are more than sufficient to support organized severe
thunderstorms. With at least a few models depicting a small but
nonzero perpendicular component to the shear vectors with respect
to the H85 boundary orientation, it would not be surprising to see
a few supercells somewhere across the region before convection
starts to congeal and become more linear with time. If the models
are correct with the orientation of the shear vectors with respect
to the cold front, then aftn/eve convection should become linear
very quickly.

As of 0830z, early morning convection appears to be diminishing
over northern/northeastern MO, lending credence to the above
scenario. However, if the early morning convection does not
dissipate and if the outflow boundary is pushed farther to the
south, then the overall coverage of severe thunderstorms would
probably be much lower and would tend to be limited to the
southern CWA.

Moving into tonight, the cold front becomes oriented nearly parallel
to the 0-6 km shear vectors, and the primary forecast issue then
shifts from severe weather to heavy rainfall. Overall, this looks
like a decent setup for locally heavy rainfall. PW values
increase to over 2" tonight, which is not only at +2SD and the 99th
percentile for August, but also exceeds both of those thresholds for
September. Models also depict broad lift from favorable jet coupling
(between the RER of a jet at H25 and the LER of a jet at H85) which
develops by 06z in response to a shortwave moving through NEB/IA.
In addition, MUCAPE remains quite high overnight and the mid-level
flow also appears to be nearly parallel to the cold front. Because
of these factors, I`m reasonably sure that there is going to be an
elongated band of convection overnight, but I`m not sure whether
it will be with the true synoptic cold front (resulting in a band
of rainfall near the I-70 corridor) or with the outflow/effective
boundary (resulting in a band of rainfall located much farther
south, possibly only affecting the southern CWA).

Flash flood guidance numbers are around 2-3" for 1 hour, 2.5-3.5"
for 3 hours, and 3-5" for 6 hours. There hasn`t been much rainfall
over the last few days, therefore the ground is not saturated and
can probably absorb a fair amount of water before widespread
flooding becomes a concern. There is also a question about where
the axis of heaviest rainfall will occur. For these reasons, we
will hold off on any flood/flash flood watches for now.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

The front and/or effective boundary should linger across the
region on Tue/Tue night before lifting northeastward as a warm
front on Wed/Wed night. The precipitation threat will also lift
northeastward with the warm front during the middle of the week.
Model solutions then depict a cold front moving into the area
towards the end of the week and into next weekend, bringing a
chance of rain and a cooler air mass into the region.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

Expect VFR flight conditions to prevail through much of the
afternoon. Scattered light showers will continue through the early
afternoon across parts of southeast Missouri. West to southwest
wind will gust to around 24kts. Expecting thunderstorms to
redevelop somewhere over west central or southwest Missouri later
this afternoon and spread northeast into parts of central and
eastern Missouri and southwest Illinois this evening. Storms will
likely train along and south of the I-70/I-44 corridor tonight
producing IFR conditions in heavy rain. Storms should move south
and begin to dissipate between 08-12Z.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail this afternoon at
Lambert. Latest thoughts are that thunderstorms will develop over
southwest/west central Missouri and spread east-northeast into
eastern Missouri by early this evening. A prolonged period of
thunderstorms with occasional heavy rain will likely impact the
terminal during the mid-late evening. Storms should move south of
the terminal between 06-11Z; timing is uncertain at this time.
After storms exit the STL Metro area, expect MVFR CIGs to rise to
VFR during the morning.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 011752
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1252 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

There are three interconnected forecast issues covering today
through tomorrow: convective timing, the potential for severe
weather, and the potential for heavy rainfall. The main factors
involved with the forecast are the ongoing early morning
convection with its outflow boundaries, an upstream synoptic cold
front, and a couple of shortwaves moving through a broad longwave
trough.

If the early morning convection dissipates across our area, then the
air mass is likely to destabilize ahead of the approaching synoptic
cold front. Models are forecasting up to 2000-3000 J/kg of CAPE
and between 30-60 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear across most of the CWA
during the afternoon/evening hours ahead of the front. These
parameters are more than sufficient to support organized severe
thunderstorms. With at least a few models depicting a small but
nonzero perpendicular component to the shear vectors with respect
to the H85 boundary orientation, it would not be surprising to see
a few supercells somewhere across the region before convection
starts to congeal and become more linear with time. If the models
are correct with the orientation of the shear vectors with respect
to the cold front, then aftn/eve convection should become linear
very quickly.

As of 0830z, early morning convection appears to be diminishing
over northern/northeastern MO, lending credence to the above
scenario. However, if the early morning convection does not
dissipate and if the outflow boundary is pushed farther to the
south, then the overall coverage of severe thunderstorms would
probably be much lower and would tend to be limited to the
southern CWA.

Moving into tonight, the cold front becomes oriented nearly parallel
to the 0-6 km shear vectors, and the primary forecast issue then
shifts from severe weather to heavy rainfall. Overall, this looks
like a decent setup for locally heavy rainfall. PW values
increase to over 2" tonight, which is not only at +2SD and the 99th
percentile for August, but also exceeds both of those thresholds for
September. Models also depict broad lift from favorable jet coupling
(between the RER of a jet at H25 and the LER of a jet at H85) which
develops by 06z in response to a shortwave moving through NEB/IA.
In addition, MUCAPE remains quite high overnight and the mid-level
flow also appears to be nearly parallel to the cold front. Because
of these factors, I`m reasonably sure that there is going to be an
elongated band of convection overnight, but I`m not sure whether
it will be with the true synoptic cold front (resulting in a band
of rainfall near the I-70 corridor) or with the outflow/effective
boundary (resulting in a band of rainfall located much farther
south, possibly only affecting the southern CWA).

Flash flood guidance numbers are around 2-3" for 1 hour, 2.5-3.5"
for 3 hours, and 3-5" for 6 hours. There hasn`t been much rainfall
over the last few days, therefore the ground is not saturated and
can probably absorb a fair amount of water before widespread
flooding becomes a concern. There is also a question about where
the axis of heaviest rainfall will occur. For these reasons, we
will hold off on any flood/flash flood watches for now.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

The front and/or effective boundary should linger across the
region on Tue/Tue night before lifting northeastward as a warm
front on Wed/Wed night. The precipitation threat will also lift
northeastward with the warm front during the middle of the week.
Model solutions then depict a cold front moving into the area
towards the end of the week and into next weekend, bringing a
chance of rain and a cooler air mass into the region.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

Expect VFR flight conditions to prevail through much of the
afternoon. Scattered light showers will continue through the early
afternoon across parts of southeast Missouri. West to southwest
wind will gust to around 24kts. Expecting thunderstorms to
redevelop somewhere over west central or southwest Missouri later
this afternoon and spread northeast into parts of central and
eastern Missouri and southwest Illinois this evening. Storms will
likely train along and south of the I-70/I-44 corridor tonight
producing IFR conditions in heavy rain. Storms should move south
and begin to dissipate between 08-12Z.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail this afternoon at
Lambert. Latest thoughts are that thunderstorms will develop over
southwest/west central Missouri and spread east-northeast into
eastern Missouri by early this evening. A prolonged period of
thunderstorms with occasional heavy rain will likely impact the
terminal during the mid-late evening. Storms should move south of
the terminal between 06-11Z; timing is uncertain at this time.
After storms exit the STL Metro area, expect MVFR CIGs to rise to
VFR during the morning.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 011424 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
924 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 924 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Shortwave continues to move through the area this morning. Two
bands of showers and embedded storms persist. The first extending
from Fort Scott, KS to the Lake of the Ozarks and the second
extending from the four states region northeastward to areas
along/southeast of the I-44 corridor. This activity will persist
through the morning hours, tapering off as the low level jet
weakens and veers. At least partial clearing is expected this
afternoon, which will result in steamy conditions, recharging
instability across the region.

Low level outflow has moved to the southeast of the area. This and
the large scale cold front to our northwest will become players in
our chances for redevelopment of storms later this afternoon and
tonight. The full extent of destabilization is somewhat in
question. A quicker recharge of instability may result in storms
firing quicker. The better coverage of showers and storms will
more than likely occur when the low level jet kicks back into gear
this evening into the overnight hours. Damaging winds and hail
will be the main severe risks with initial convection, though will
need to watch any backing of low level winds which will support a
limited tornado risk. Heading into the overnight hours, we should
transition to a heavy rain, localized flooding risk dependent on
where cell training sets up.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Active start this morning with a QLCS moving across southeast
Kansas into western Missouri as of 3 am. This line of storms has
been producing 40 to 50 mph winds occasionally up to near 60 in
isolated spots. The latest 4KM WRF shows this line of storms
making its way down to the Springfield area by sunrise and slowly
dissipating through mid morning. The main threat this morning will
be frequent lightning and gusty winds along with very heavy
downpours. Areas north and west of I-44 will likely see between
half an inch to an inch of rainfall this morning with locally
heavier amounts.

The big question for today is how this early morning convection
will play into the afternoon heating and evening convection.
Current thinking is this activity will end by late morning and
clearing will occur by midday. Temperatures will climb back into
the upper 80s to near 90 south of where the frontal boundary sets
up. The boundary will likely setup from near Pittsburg Kansas to
central Missouri by late afternoon and evening.

Forecast MLCape values will be between 2000 and 3000 J/KG. Bulk
shear will be on the order of 40 to 50 knots. A wave of low
pressure will develop over south central Kansas late
afternoon/evening and ride up along the frontal boundary. Low
level winds may back somewhat and slightly enhance low-level shear
for a slight tornado threat into the evening hours for portions of
southeast Kansas and southwestern Missouri. SPC has the area in a
slight risk for severe storms today.

A few supercells initially will be possible eventually merging
into a QLCS and linear storm complex late evening and overnight
across the Missouri Ozarks. The overall main threat will be
damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and large hail up to golf balls
size possible. Tornado threat will be limited and mainly for the
early evening hours.

Late this evening into the overnight hours...the main concerns
will turn into more of a hydro or heavy rainfall situation
depending on where these storms will train over the same area.
Storm total rainfall possible from today through Tuesday night is
between 1 to 2 inches south of I-44 and 2 to 4 inches north of
I-44 with locally heavier amounts. The ground should be able to
take several inches being so dry lately. The problem to watch is
rainfall rates and training of storms. There will be a limited or
localized flash flooding threat but confidence is too low to issue
any watch at this time. Will like to see what rainfall this
morning`s convection produces and have the day shift take another
look at any headlines that might be needed for tonight`s round of
storms.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

The front stalls out Tuesday right over the area and additional
scattered storms will be around Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
front eventually lifts back northward on Wednesday with more
scattered storms possible over central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks.

Upper level ridge of high pressure briefly builds in for Thursday
with drier and warmer weather for the end of the week. A Canadian
front makes a run for the area late Friday into Saturday and slows
down. Scattered convection will be in the forecast with this slow
moving front for the weekend. Followed more closely with the ECMWF
for the weekend with the front clearing through the area by Sunday
and surface high builds in for Sunday. Slightly cooler and drier
airmass will follow with below average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 705 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Pilots can expect improving flight conditions today as the showers
and thunderstorms that impacted the region overnight diminish this
morning. Additional thunderstorm development will take place later
today and tonight as front approaches from the north.

Localized MVFR ceilings will be possible this morning and again
tonight.

Southerly winds will become gusty at the surface by this
afternoon.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 011424 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
924 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 924 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Shortwave continues to move through the area this morning. Two
bands of showers and embedded storms persist. The first extending
from Fort Scott, KS to the Lake of the Ozarks and the second
extending from the four states region northeastward to areas
along/southeast of the I-44 corridor. This activity will persist
through the morning hours, tapering off as the low level jet
weakens and veers. At least partial clearing is expected this
afternoon, which will result in steamy conditions, recharging
instability across the region.

Low level outflow has moved to the southeast of the area. This and
the large scale cold front to our northwest will become players in
our chances for redevelopment of storms later this afternoon and
tonight. The full extent of destabilization is somewhat in
question. A quicker recharge of instability may result in storms
firing quicker. The better coverage of showers and storms will
more than likely occur when the low level jet kicks back into gear
this evening into the overnight hours. Damaging winds and hail
will be the main severe risks with initial convection, though will
need to watch any backing of low level winds which will support a
limited tornado risk. Heading into the overnight hours, we should
transition to a heavy rain, localized flooding risk dependent on
where cell training sets up.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Active start this morning with a QLCS moving across southeast
Kansas into western Missouri as of 3 am. This line of storms has
been producing 40 to 50 mph winds occasionally up to near 60 in
isolated spots. The latest 4KM WRF shows this line of storms
making its way down to the Springfield area by sunrise and slowly
dissipating through mid morning. The main threat this morning will
be frequent lightning and gusty winds along with very heavy
downpours. Areas north and west of I-44 will likely see between
half an inch to an inch of rainfall this morning with locally
heavier amounts.

The big question for today is how this early morning convection
will play into the afternoon heating and evening convection.
Current thinking is this activity will end by late morning and
clearing will occur by midday. Temperatures will climb back into
the upper 80s to near 90 south of where the frontal boundary sets
up. The boundary will likely setup from near Pittsburg Kansas to
central Missouri by late afternoon and evening.

Forecast MLCape values will be between 2000 and 3000 J/KG. Bulk
shear will be on the order of 40 to 50 knots. A wave of low
pressure will develop over south central Kansas late
afternoon/evening and ride up along the frontal boundary. Low
level winds may back somewhat and slightly enhance low-level shear
for a slight tornado threat into the evening hours for portions of
southeast Kansas and southwestern Missouri. SPC has the area in a
slight risk for severe storms today.

A few supercells initially will be possible eventually merging
into a QLCS and linear storm complex late evening and overnight
across the Missouri Ozarks. The overall main threat will be
damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and large hail up to golf balls
size possible. Tornado threat will be limited and mainly for the
early evening hours.

Late this evening into the overnight hours...the main concerns
will turn into more of a hydro or heavy rainfall situation
depending on where these storms will train over the same area.
Storm total rainfall possible from today through Tuesday night is
between 1 to 2 inches south of I-44 and 2 to 4 inches north of
I-44 with locally heavier amounts. The ground should be able to
take several inches being so dry lately. The problem to watch is
rainfall rates and training of storms. There will be a limited or
localized flash flooding threat but confidence is too low to issue
any watch at this time. Will like to see what rainfall this
morning`s convection produces and have the day shift take another
look at any headlines that might be needed for tonight`s round of
storms.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

The front stalls out Tuesday right over the area and additional
scattered storms will be around Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
front eventually lifts back northward on Wednesday with more
scattered storms possible over central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks.

Upper level ridge of high pressure briefly builds in for Thursday
with drier and warmer weather for the end of the week. A Canadian
front makes a run for the area late Friday into Saturday and slows
down. Scattered convection will be in the forecast with this slow
moving front for the weekend. Followed more closely with the ECMWF
for the weekend with the front clearing through the area by Sunday
and surface high builds in for Sunday. Slightly cooler and drier
airmass will follow with below average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 705 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Pilots can expect improving flight conditions today as the showers
and thunderstorms that impacted the region overnight diminish this
morning. Additional thunderstorm development will take place later
today and tonight as front approaches from the north.

Localized MVFR ceilings will be possible this morning and again
tonight.

Southerly winds will become gusty at the surface by this
afternoon.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster






000
FXUS63 KSGF 011208
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
708 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Active start this morning with a QLCS moving across southeast
Kansas into western Missouri as of 3 am. This line of storms has
been producing 40 to 50 mph winds occasionally up to near 60 in
isolated spots. The latest 4KM WRF shows this line of storms
making its way down to the Springfield area by sunrise and slowly
dissipating through mid morning. The main threat this morning will
be frequent lightning and gusty winds along with very heavy
downpours. Areas north and west of I-44 will likely see between
half an inch to an inch of rainfall this morning with locally
heavier amounts.

The big question for today is how this early morning convection
will play into the afternoon heating and evening convection.
Current thinking is this activity will end by late morning and
clearing will occur by midday. Temperatures will climb back into
the upper 80s to near 90 south of where the frontal boundary sets
up. The boundary will likely setup from near Pittsburg Kansas to
central Missouri by late afternoon and evening.

Forecast MLCape values will be between 2000 and 3000 J/KG. Bulk
shear will be on the order of 40 to 50 knots. A wave of low
pressure will develop over south central Kansas late
afternoon/evening and ride up along the frontal boundary. Low
level winds may back somewhat and slightly enhance low-level shear
for a slight tornado threat into the evening hours for portions of
southeast Kansas and southwestern Missouri. SPC has the area in a
slight risk for severe storms today.

A few supercells initially will be possible eventually merging
into a QLCS and linear storm complex late evening and overnight
across the Missouri Ozarks. The overall main threat will be
damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and large hail up to golf balls
size possible. Tornado threat will be limited and mainly for the
early evening hours.

Late this evening into the overnight hours...the main concerns
will turn into more of a hydro or heavy rainfall situation
depending on where these storms will train over the same area.
Storm total rainfall possible from today through Tuesday night is
between 1 to 2 inches south of I-44 and 2 to 4 inches north of
I-44 with locally heavier amounts. The ground should be able to
take several inches being so dry lately. The problem to watch is
rainfall rates and training of storms. There will be a limited or
localized flash flooding threat but confidence is too low to issue
any watch at this time. Will like to see what rainfall this
morning`s convection produces and have the day shift take another
look at any headlines that might be needed for tonight`s round of
storms.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

The front stalls out Tuesday right over the area and additional
scattered storms will be around Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
front eventually lifts back northward on Wednesday with more
scattered storms possible over central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks.

Upper level ridge of high pressure briefly builds in for Thursday
with drier and warmer weather for the end of the week. A Canadian
front makes a run for the area late Friday into Saturday and slows
down. Scattered convection will be in the forecast with this slow
moving front for the weekend. Followed more closely with the ECMWF
for the weekend with the front clearing through the area by Sunday
and surface high builds in for Sunday. Slightly cooler and drier
airmass will follow with below average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 705 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Pilots can expect improving flight conditions today as the showers
and thunderstorms that impacted the region overnight diminish this
morning. Additional thunderstorm development will take place later
today and tonight as front approaches from the north.

Localized MVFR ceilings will be possible this morning and again
tonight.

Southerly winds will become gusty at the surface by this
afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster






000
FXUS63 KLSX 011150
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
650 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

There are three interconnected forecast issues covering today
through tomorrow: convective timing, the potential for severe
weather, and the potential for heavy rainfall. The main factors
involved with the forecast are the ongoing early morning
convection with its outflow boundaries, an upstream synoptic cold
front, and a couple of shortwaves moving through a broad longwave
trough.

If the early morning convection dissipates across our area, then the
air mass is likely to destabilize ahead of the approaching synoptic
cold front. Models are forecasting up to 2000-3000 J/kg of CAPE
and between 30-60 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear across most of the CWA
during the afternoon/evening hours ahead of the front. These
parameters are more than sufficient to support organized severe
thunderstorms. With at least a few models depicting a small but
nonzero perpendicular component to the shear vectors with respect
to the H85 boundary orientation, it would not be surprising to see
a few supercells somewhere across the region before convection
starts to congeal and become more linear with time. If the models
are correct with the orientation of the shear vectors with respect
to the cold front, then aftn/eve convection should become linear
very quickly.

As of 0830z, early morning convection appears to be diminishing
over northern/northeastern MO, lending credence to the above
scenario. However, if the early morning convection does not
dissipate and if the outflow boundary is pushed farther to the
south, then the overall coverage of severe thunderstorms would
probably be much lower and would tend to be limited to the
southern CWA.

Moving into tonight, the cold front becomes oriented nearly parallel
to the 0-6 km shear vectors, and the primary forecast issue then
shifts from severe weather to heavy rainfall. Overall, this looks
like a decent setup for locally heavy rainfall. PW values
increase to over 2" tonight, which is not only at +2SD and the 99th
percentile for August, but also exceeds both of those thresholds for
September. Models also depict broad lift from favorable jet coupling
(between the RER of a jet at H25 and the LER of a jet at H85) which
develops by 06z in response to a shortwave moving through NEB/IA.
In addition, MUCAPE remains quite high overnight and the mid-level
flow also appears to be nearly parallel to the cold front. Because
of these factors, I`m reasonably sure that there is going to be an
elongated band of convection overnight, but I`m not sure whether
it will be with the true synoptic cold front (resulting in a band
of rainfall near the I-70 corridor) or with the outflow/effective
boundary (resulting in a band of rainfall located much farther
south, possibly only affecting the southern CWA).

Flash flood guidance numbers are around 2-3" for 1 hour, 2.5-3.5"
for 3 hours, and 3-5" for 6 hours. There hasn`t been much rainfall
over the last few days, therefore the ground is not saturated and
can probably absorb a fair amount of water before widespread
flooding becomes a concern. There is also a question about where
the axis of heaviest rainfall will occur. For these reasons, we
will hold off on any flood/flash flood watches for now.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

The front and/or effective boundary should linger across the
region on Tue/Tue night before lifting northeastward as a warm
front on Wed/Wed night. The precipitation threat will also lift
northeastward with the warm front during the middle of the week.
Model solutions then depict a cold front moving into the area
towards the end of the week and into next weekend, bringing a
chance of rain and a cooler air mass into the region.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

Weakening area of showers and spotty thunderstorms extending from
KUIN into central and east central MO will move eastward early
this morning and eventually dissipate. It will be exiting KUIN and
KCOU by 13z and should impact the St. Louis area terminals for
several hours this morning with predominately VFR conditions and
occasionally high-end MVFR vsbys with showers. After this
precipitation ends, a rather large lull is expected until 21z or
so when new thunderstorm development is anticipated along a
corridor impacting KCOU and the St. Louis area terminals. Some of
the guidance suggests this could be a rather prolonged period of
showers and thunderstorms, pushing south by late evening.
Confidence is low that any of this afternoon and evening
thunderstorm development will impact KUIN and hence just kept with
the mention of VCTS.

Specifics for KSTL:

Showers will impact the terminal until around mid-morning with
predominately VFR conditions and occasionally high-end MVFR vsbys
with the showers. After this precipitation ends, a rather large
lull is expected until after 21z or so when new thunderstorm
development is anticipated that will impact KSTL. Some of the
guidance suggests this could be a rather prolonged period of
showers and thunderstorms, pushing south by late evening.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 011150
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
650 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

There are three interconnected forecast issues covering today
through tomorrow: convective timing, the potential for severe
weather, and the potential for heavy rainfall. The main factors
involved with the forecast are the ongoing early morning
convection with its outflow boundaries, an upstream synoptic cold
front, and a couple of shortwaves moving through a broad longwave
trough.

If the early morning convection dissipates across our area, then the
air mass is likely to destabilize ahead of the approaching synoptic
cold front. Models are forecasting up to 2000-3000 J/kg of CAPE
and between 30-60 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear across most of the CWA
during the afternoon/evening hours ahead of the front. These
parameters are more than sufficient to support organized severe
thunderstorms. With at least a few models depicting a small but
nonzero perpendicular component to the shear vectors with respect
to the H85 boundary orientation, it would not be surprising to see
a few supercells somewhere across the region before convection
starts to congeal and become more linear with time. If the models
are correct with the orientation of the shear vectors with respect
to the cold front, then aftn/eve convection should become linear
very quickly.

As of 0830z, early morning convection appears to be diminishing
over northern/northeastern MO, lending credence to the above
scenario. However, if the early morning convection does not
dissipate and if the outflow boundary is pushed farther to the
south, then the overall coverage of severe thunderstorms would
probably be much lower and would tend to be limited to the
southern CWA.

Moving into tonight, the cold front becomes oriented nearly parallel
to the 0-6 km shear vectors, and the primary forecast issue then
shifts from severe weather to heavy rainfall. Overall, this looks
like a decent setup for locally heavy rainfall. PW values
increase to over 2" tonight, which is not only at +2SD and the 99th
percentile for August, but also exceeds both of those thresholds for
September. Models also depict broad lift from favorable jet coupling
(between the RER of a jet at H25 and the LER of a jet at H85) which
develops by 06z in response to a shortwave moving through NEB/IA.
In addition, MUCAPE remains quite high overnight and the mid-level
flow also appears to be nearly parallel to the cold front. Because
of these factors, I`m reasonably sure that there is going to be an
elongated band of convection overnight, but I`m not sure whether
it will be with the true synoptic cold front (resulting in a band
of rainfall near the I-70 corridor) or with the outflow/effective
boundary (resulting in a band of rainfall located much farther
south, possibly only affecting the southern CWA).

Flash flood guidance numbers are around 2-3" for 1 hour, 2.5-3.5"
for 3 hours, and 3-5" for 6 hours. There hasn`t been much rainfall
over the last few days, therefore the ground is not saturated and
can probably absorb a fair amount of water before widespread
flooding becomes a concern. There is also a question about where
the axis of heaviest rainfall will occur. For these reasons, we
will hold off on any flood/flash flood watches for now.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

The front and/or effective boundary should linger across the
region on Tue/Tue night before lifting northeastward as a warm
front on Wed/Wed night. The precipitation threat will also lift
northeastward with the warm front during the middle of the week.
Model solutions then depict a cold front moving into the area
towards the end of the week and into next weekend, bringing a
chance of rain and a cooler air mass into the region.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

Weakening area of showers and spotty thunderstorms extending from
KUIN into central and east central MO will move eastward early
this morning and eventually dissipate. It will be exiting KUIN and
KCOU by 13z and should impact the St. Louis area terminals for
several hours this morning with predominately VFR conditions and
occasionally high-end MVFR vsbys with showers. After this
precipitation ends, a rather large lull is expected until 21z or
so when new thunderstorm development is anticipated along a
corridor impacting KCOU and the St. Louis area terminals. Some of
the guidance suggests this could be a rather prolonged period of
showers and thunderstorms, pushing south by late evening.
Confidence is low that any of this afternoon and evening
thunderstorm development will impact KUIN and hence just kept with
the mention of VCTS.

Specifics for KSTL:

Showers will impact the terminal until around mid-morning with
predominately VFR conditions and occasionally high-end MVFR vsbys
with the showers. After this precipitation ends, a rather large
lull is expected until after 21z or so when new thunderstorm
development is anticipated that will impact KSTL. Some of the
guidance suggests this could be a rather prolonged period of
showers and thunderstorms, pushing south by late evening.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 011126
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
626 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A line of storms and trailing stratiform will continue to shift east
this morning, and should generally clear out of the northern 2/3rds
of the forecast area shortly after sunrise. The southern edge of the
line may trail a bit along the northern edge of the low level jet,
possibly allowing showers and storms to linger along our southern
border through late morning.

This morning`s storms will most likely leave one or more outflow
boundaries across central MO for this afternoon, and the synoptic
cold front currently in southeast Nebraska will also drift southward
today and stall north of the Ozarks. These boundaries could serve as
a focus for afternoon convection, especially as a weak shortwave
trough passes overhead during the afternoon and early evening hours.
The strength of any storms that develop will depend on how much
clearing occurs and thus how much instability can build today, but
at least a few strong to severe storms are possible along the cold
front or any of the lingering outflow boundaries, mainly south of
I-70. Deep layer shear values will increase into the 40-50 kt range
by mid afternoon across central MO, supporting organized convection
should any robust updrafts develop in our CWA. Damaging winds and
large hail are both possible with any stronger storms that develop.
As the shortwave trough pushes southeast later this afternoon into
the evening, the cold front and any other lingering boundaries will
be driven southeast out of the forecast area for the later evening
and overnight hours.

Quiet conditions and near to slightly below normal temperatures are
expected for Tuesday with the front remaining south of the forecast
area; however, developing lee side low pressure and resultant south
southwest flow at low levels will help drive the boundary back north
for Wednesday, bringing another chance of scattered storms and above
normal temperatures back into the CWA. Strong/severe storms are not
expected due to lacking focus for convection and fairly weak flow
aloft.

Warm temperatures will continue for Thursday, then a much stronger
cold front is expected to dive southward into the region on Friday
or Friday night. Showers and storms are expected from late Thursday
night through Saturday morning in association with this system, and
temperatures should drop significantly by the weekend in its wake.
Highs Saturday and Sunday may only top out in the mid 70s as 850
temperatures drop into the 7 to 10 C range, and dry conditions are
anticipated behind the front for the remainder of Saturday through
the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will gradually exit the area over
the next few hours, and associated 10-12 kft ceilings will follow
behind by late morning to early afternoon. Scattered to broken
stratus with bases around 1500 ft across far northwest MO will also
slide east and gradually mix out this morning, possibly impacting
KSTJ but likely staying north of KMCI and KMKC. Otherwise, scattered
cumulus with bases around 3-4 kft will develop this afternoon, and a
few scattered storms are possible across central MO during the late
afternoon and evening hours. Most storms should stay south of the
terminals, but a stray storm may develop in the vicinity of KC. Winds
will gradually turn to the west and then northwest before becoming
light and variable this evening, and some patchy fog is possible by
early Tuesday morning especially at KSTJ.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KEAX 011126
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
626 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A line of storms and trailing stratiform will continue to shift east
this morning, and should generally clear out of the northern 2/3rds
of the forecast area shortly after sunrise. The southern edge of the
line may trail a bit along the northern edge of the low level jet,
possibly allowing showers and storms to linger along our southern
border through late morning.

This morning`s storms will most likely leave one or more outflow
boundaries across central MO for this afternoon, and the synoptic
cold front currently in southeast Nebraska will also drift southward
today and stall north of the Ozarks. These boundaries could serve as
a focus for afternoon convection, especially as a weak shortwave
trough passes overhead during the afternoon and early evening hours.
The strength of any storms that develop will depend on how much
clearing occurs and thus how much instability can build today, but
at least a few strong to severe storms are possible along the cold
front or any of the lingering outflow boundaries, mainly south of
I-70. Deep layer shear values will increase into the 40-50 kt range
by mid afternoon across central MO, supporting organized convection
should any robust updrafts develop in our CWA. Damaging winds and
large hail are both possible with any stronger storms that develop.
As the shortwave trough pushes southeast later this afternoon into
the evening, the cold front and any other lingering boundaries will
be driven southeast out of the forecast area for the later evening
and overnight hours.

Quiet conditions and near to slightly below normal temperatures are
expected for Tuesday with the front remaining south of the forecast
area; however, developing lee side low pressure and resultant south
southwest flow at low levels will help drive the boundary back north
for Wednesday, bringing another chance of scattered storms and above
normal temperatures back into the CWA. Strong/severe storms are not
expected due to lacking focus for convection and fairly weak flow
aloft.

Warm temperatures will continue for Thursday, then a much stronger
cold front is expected to dive southward into the region on Friday
or Friday night. Showers and storms are expected from late Thursday
night through Saturday morning in association with this system, and
temperatures should drop significantly by the weekend in its wake.
Highs Saturday and Sunday may only top out in the mid 70s as 850
temperatures drop into the 7 to 10 C range, and dry conditions are
anticipated behind the front for the remainder of Saturday through
the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will gradually exit the area over
the next few hours, and associated 10-12 kft ceilings will follow
behind by late morning to early afternoon. Scattered to broken
stratus with bases around 1500 ft across far northwest MO will also
slide east and gradually mix out this morning, possibly impacting
KSTJ but likely staying north of KMCI and KMKC. Otherwise, scattered
cumulus with bases around 3-4 kft will develop this afternoon, and a
few scattered storms are possible across central MO during the late
afternoon and evening hours. Most storms should stay south of the
terminals, but a stray storm may develop in the vicinity of KC. Winds
will gradually turn to the west and then northwest before becoming
light and variable this evening, and some patchy fog is possible by
early Tuesday morning especially at KSTJ.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KEAX 011126
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
626 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A line of storms and trailing stratiform will continue to shift east
this morning, and should generally clear out of the northern 2/3rds
of the forecast area shortly after sunrise. The southern edge of the
line may trail a bit along the northern edge of the low level jet,
possibly allowing showers and storms to linger along our southern
border through late morning.

This morning`s storms will most likely leave one or more outflow
boundaries across central MO for this afternoon, and the synoptic
cold front currently in southeast Nebraska will also drift southward
today and stall north of the Ozarks. These boundaries could serve as
a focus for afternoon convection, especially as a weak shortwave
trough passes overhead during the afternoon and early evening hours.
The strength of any storms that develop will depend on how much
clearing occurs and thus how much instability can build today, but
at least a few strong to severe storms are possible along the cold
front or any of the lingering outflow boundaries, mainly south of
I-70. Deep layer shear values will increase into the 40-50 kt range
by mid afternoon across central MO, supporting organized convection
should any robust updrafts develop in our CWA. Damaging winds and
large hail are both possible with any stronger storms that develop.
As the shortwave trough pushes southeast later this afternoon into
the evening, the cold front and any other lingering boundaries will
be driven southeast out of the forecast area for the later evening
and overnight hours.

Quiet conditions and near to slightly below normal temperatures are
expected for Tuesday with the front remaining south of the forecast
area; however, developing lee side low pressure and resultant south
southwest flow at low levels will help drive the boundary back north
for Wednesday, bringing another chance of scattered storms and above
normal temperatures back into the CWA. Strong/severe storms are not
expected due to lacking focus for convection and fairly weak flow
aloft.

Warm temperatures will continue for Thursday, then a much stronger
cold front is expected to dive southward into the region on Friday
or Friday night. Showers and storms are expected from late Thursday
night through Saturday morning in association with this system, and
temperatures should drop significantly by the weekend in its wake.
Highs Saturday and Sunday may only top out in the mid 70s as 850
temperatures drop into the 7 to 10 C range, and dry conditions are
anticipated behind the front for the remainder of Saturday through
the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will gradually exit the area over
the next few hours, and associated 10-12 kft ceilings will follow
behind by late morning to early afternoon. Scattered to broken
stratus with bases around 1500 ft across far northwest MO will also
slide east and gradually mix out this morning, possibly impacting
KSTJ but likely staying north of KMCI and KMKC. Otherwise, scattered
cumulus with bases around 3-4 kft will develop this afternoon, and a
few scattered storms are possible across central MO during the late
afternoon and evening hours. Most storms should stay south of the
terminals, but a stray storm may develop in the vicinity of KC. Winds
will gradually turn to the west and then northwest before becoming
light and variable this evening, and some patchy fog is possible by
early Tuesday morning especially at KSTJ.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KEAX 011126
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
626 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A line of storms and trailing stratiform will continue to shift east
this morning, and should generally clear out of the northern 2/3rds
of the forecast area shortly after sunrise. The southern edge of the
line may trail a bit along the northern edge of the low level jet,
possibly allowing showers and storms to linger along our southern
border through late morning.

This morning`s storms will most likely leave one or more outflow
boundaries across central MO for this afternoon, and the synoptic
cold front currently in southeast Nebraska will also drift southward
today and stall north of the Ozarks. These boundaries could serve as
a focus for afternoon convection, especially as a weak shortwave
trough passes overhead during the afternoon and early evening hours.
The strength of any storms that develop will depend on how much
clearing occurs and thus how much instability can build today, but
at least a few strong to severe storms are possible along the cold
front or any of the lingering outflow boundaries, mainly south of
I-70. Deep layer shear values will increase into the 40-50 kt range
by mid afternoon across central MO, supporting organized convection
should any robust updrafts develop in our CWA. Damaging winds and
large hail are both possible with any stronger storms that develop.
As the shortwave trough pushes southeast later this afternoon into
the evening, the cold front and any other lingering boundaries will
be driven southeast out of the forecast area for the later evening
and overnight hours.

Quiet conditions and near to slightly below normal temperatures are
expected for Tuesday with the front remaining south of the forecast
area; however, developing lee side low pressure and resultant south
southwest flow at low levels will help drive the boundary back north
for Wednesday, bringing another chance of scattered storms and above
normal temperatures back into the CWA. Strong/severe storms are not
expected due to lacking focus for convection and fairly weak flow
aloft.

Warm temperatures will continue for Thursday, then a much stronger
cold front is expected to dive southward into the region on Friday
or Friday night. Showers and storms are expected from late Thursday
night through Saturday morning in association with this system, and
temperatures should drop significantly by the weekend in its wake.
Highs Saturday and Sunday may only top out in the mid 70s as 850
temperatures drop into the 7 to 10 C range, and dry conditions are
anticipated behind the front for the remainder of Saturday through
the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will gradually exit the area over
the next few hours, and associated 10-12 kft ceilings will follow
behind by late morning to early afternoon. Scattered to broken
stratus with bases around 1500 ft across far northwest MO will also
slide east and gradually mix out this morning, possibly impacting
KSTJ but likely staying north of KMCI and KMKC. Otherwise, scattered
cumulus with bases around 3-4 kft will develop this afternoon, and a
few scattered storms are possible across central MO during the late
afternoon and evening hours. Most storms should stay south of the
terminals, but a stray storm may develop in the vicinity of KC. Winds
will gradually turn to the west and then northwest before becoming
light and variable this evening, and some patchy fog is possible by
early Tuesday morning especially at KSTJ.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KLSX 010854
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
354 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

There are three interconnected forecast issues covering today
through tomorrow: convective timing, the potential for severe
weather, and the potential for heavy rainfall. The main factors
involved with the forecast are the ongoing early morning
convection with its outflow boundaries, an upstream synoptic cold
front, and a couple of shortwaves moving through a broad longwave
trough.

If the early morning convection dissipates across our area, then the
air mass is likely to destabilize ahead of the approaching synoptic
cold front. Models are forecasting up to 2000-3000 J/kg of CAPE
and between 30-60 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear across most of the CWA
during the afternoon/evening hours ahead of the front. These
parameters are more than sufficient to support organized severe
thunderstorms. With at least a few models depicting a small but
nonzero perpendicular component to the shear vectors with respect
to the H85 boundary orientation, it would not be surprising to see
a few supercells somewhere across the region before convection
starts to congeal and become more linear with time. If the models
are correct with the orientation of the shear vectors with respect
to the cold front, then aftn/eve convection should become linear
very quickly.

As of 0830z, early morning convection appears to be diminishing
over northern/northeastern MO, lending credence to the above
scenario. However, if the early morning convection does not
dissipate and if the outflow boundary is pushed farther to the
south, then the overall coverage of severe thunderstorms would
probably be much lower and would tend to be limited to the
southern CWA.

Moving into tonight, the cold front becomes oriented nearly parallel
to the 0-6 km shear vectors, and the primary forecast issue then
shifts from severe weather to heavy rainfall. Overall, this looks
like a decent setup for locally heavy rainfall. PW values
increase to over 2" tonight, which is not only at +2SD and the 99th
percentile for August, but also exceeds both of those thresholds for
September. Models also depict broad lift from favorable jet coupling
(between the RER of a jet at H25 and the LER of a jet at H85) which
develops by 06z in response to a shortwave moving through NEB/IA.
In addition, MUCAPE remains quite high overnight and the mid-level
flow also appears to be nearly parallel to the cold front. Because
of these factors, I`m reasonably sure that there is going to be an
elongated band of convection overnight, but I`m not sure whether
it will be with the true synoptic cold front (resulting in a band
of rainfall near the I-70 corridor) or with the outflow/effective
boundary (resulting in a band of rainfall located much farther
south, possibly only affecting the southern CWA).

Flash flood guidance numbers are around 2-3" for 1 hour, 2.5-3.5"
for 3 hours, and 3-5" for 6 hours. There hasn`t been much rainfall
over the last few days, therefore the ground is not saturated and
can probably absorb a fair amount of water before widespread
flooding becomes a concern. There is also a question about where
the axis of heaviest rainfall will occur. For these reasons, we
will hold off on any flood/flash flood watches for now.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

The front and/or effective boundary should linger across the
region on Tue/Tue night before lifting northeastward as a warm
front on Wed/Wed night. The precipitation threat will also lift
northeastward with the warm front during the middle of the week.
Model solutions then depict a cold front moving into the area
towards the end of the week and into next weekend, bringing a
chance of rain and a cooler air mass into the region.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Convection extending from IA southwest through northwestern MO and
KS just ahead of a cold front will drop southeastward into the
UIN and COU areas late tonight, and then eventually into the St
Louis metro area towards morning as it weakens. New convective
development is expected late Monday afternoon and early evening
mainly in COU and the St Louis metro area between the approaching
cold front and an outflow boundary left from the late
night/morning storm complex. S-sely surface winds late tonight
will gradually veer around to a swly direction Monday morning.

Specifics for KSTL: Weakening showers and storms are expected to
drop southeastward into STL area by early Monday morning. There
will be a break in the convection with redevelopment of storms
expected late Monday afternoon and evening. S-sely surface winds
late tonight wlll increase to around 14 kts by late Monday
morning from a swly direction.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 010854
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
354 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

There are three interconnected forecast issues covering today
through tomorrow: convective timing, the potential for severe
weather, and the potential for heavy rainfall. The main factors
involved with the forecast are the ongoing early morning
convection with its outflow boundaries, an upstream synoptic cold
front, and a couple of shortwaves moving through a broad longwave
trough.

If the early morning convection dissipates across our area, then the
air mass is likely to destabilize ahead of the approaching synoptic
cold front. Models are forecasting up to 2000-3000 J/kg of CAPE
and between 30-60 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear across most of the CWA
during the afternoon/evening hours ahead of the front. These
parameters are more than sufficient to support organized severe
thunderstorms. With at least a few models depicting a small but
nonzero perpendicular component to the shear vectors with respect
to the H85 boundary orientation, it would not be surprising to see
a few supercells somewhere across the region before convection
starts to congeal and become more linear with time. If the models
are correct with the orientation of the shear vectors with respect
to the cold front, then aftn/eve convection should become linear
very quickly.

As of 0830z, early morning convection appears to be diminishing
over northern/northeastern MO, lending credence to the above
scenario. However, if the early morning convection does not
dissipate and if the outflow boundary is pushed farther to the
south, then the overall coverage of severe thunderstorms would
probably be much lower and would tend to be limited to the
southern CWA.

Moving into tonight, the cold front becomes oriented nearly parallel
to the 0-6 km shear vectors, and the primary forecast issue then
shifts from severe weather to heavy rainfall. Overall, this looks
like a decent setup for locally heavy rainfall. PW values
increase to over 2" tonight, which is not only at +2SD and the 99th
percentile for August, but also exceeds both of those thresholds for
September. Models also depict broad lift from favorable jet coupling
(between the RER of a jet at H25 and the LER of a jet at H85) which
develops by 06z in response to a shortwave moving through NEB/IA.
In addition, MUCAPE remains quite high overnight and the mid-level
flow also appears to be nearly parallel to the cold front. Because
of these factors, I`m reasonably sure that there is going to be an
elongated band of convection overnight, but I`m not sure whether
it will be with the true synoptic cold front (resulting in a band
of rainfall near the I-70 corridor) or with the outflow/effective
boundary (resulting in a band of rainfall located much farther
south, possibly only affecting the southern CWA).

Flash flood guidance numbers are around 2-3" for 1 hour, 2.5-3.5"
for 3 hours, and 3-5" for 6 hours. There hasn`t been much rainfall
over the last few days, therefore the ground is not saturated and
can probably absorb a fair amount of water before widespread
flooding becomes a concern. There is also a question about where
the axis of heaviest rainfall will occur. For these reasons, we
will hold off on any flood/flash flood watches for now.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

The front and/or effective boundary should linger across the
region on Tue/Tue night before lifting northeastward as a warm
front on Wed/Wed night. The precipitation threat will also lift
northeastward with the warm front during the middle of the week.
Model solutions then depict a cold front moving into the area
towards the end of the week and into next weekend, bringing a
chance of rain and a cooler air mass into the region.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Convection extending from IA southwest through northwestern MO and
KS just ahead of a cold front will drop southeastward into the
UIN and COU areas late tonight, and then eventually into the St
Louis metro area towards morning as it weakens. New convective
development is expected late Monday afternoon and early evening
mainly in COU and the St Louis metro area between the approaching
cold front and an outflow boundary left from the late
night/morning storm complex. S-sely surface winds late tonight
will gradually veer around to a swly direction Monday morning.

Specifics for KSTL: Weakening showers and storms are expected to
drop southeastward into STL area by early Monday morning. There
will be a break in the convection with redevelopment of storms
expected late Monday afternoon and evening. S-sely surface winds
late tonight wlll increase to around 14 kts by late Monday
morning from a swly direction.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 010851
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
351 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A line of storms and trailing stratiform will continue to shift east
this morning, and should generally clear out of the northern 2/3rds
of the forecast area shortly after sunrise. The southern edge of the
line may trail a bit along the northern edge of the low level jet,
possibly allowing showers and storms to linger along our southern
border through late morning.

This morning`s storms will most likely leave one or more outflow
boundaries across central MO for this afternoon, and the synoptic
cold front currently in southeast Nebraska will also drift southward
today and stall north of the Ozarks. These boundaries could serve as
a focus for afternoon convection, especially as a weak shortwave
trough passes overhead during the afternoon and early evening hours.
The strength of any storms that develop will depend on how much
clearing occurs and thus how much instability can build today, but
at least a few strong to severe storms are possible along the cold
front or any of the lingering outflow boundaries, mainly south of
I-70. Deep layer shear values will increase into the 40-50 kt range
by mid afternoon across central MO, supporting organized convection
should any robust updrafts develop in our CWA. Damaging winds and
large hail are both possible with any stronger storms that develop.
As the shortwave trough pushes southeast later this afternoon into
the evening, the cold front and any other lingering boundaries will
be driven southeast out of the forecast area for the later evening
and overnight hours.

Quiet conditions and near to slightly below normal temperatures are
expected for Tuesday with the front remaining south of the forecast
area; however, developing lee side low pressure and resultant south
southwest flow at low levels will help drive the boundary back north
for Wednesday, bringing another chance of scattered storms and above
normal temperatures back into the CWA. Strong/severe storms are not
expected due to lacking focus for convection and fairly weak flow
aloft.

Warm temperatures will continue for Thursday, then a much stronger
cold front is expected to dive southward into the region on Friday
or Friday night. Showers and storms are expected from late Thursday
night through Saturday morning in association with this system, and
temperatures should drop significantly by the weekend in its wake.
Highs Saturday and Sunday may only top out in the mid 70s as 850
temperatures drop into the 7 to 10 C range, and dry conditions are
anticipated behind the front for the remainder of Saturday through
the end of the forecast period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Line of storms that affected the terminals tonight has moved through as
of this time, leaving strati-form rain and VCTS as the primary weather
at our sites currently. This activity could last through 11Z at the
Kansas City terminals, but should end sooner at KSTJ --09Z--.
Otherwise, expect southerly winds to prevail for much of the day
behind the exiting rain. There will be a returning threat for
thunderstorms generally near and south of Kansas City again Monday
afternoon, so have inserted VCTS in after 21Z.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KEAX 010851
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
351 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A line of storms and trailing stratiform will continue to shift east
this morning, and should generally clear out of the northern 2/3rds
of the forecast area shortly after sunrise. The southern edge of the
line may trail a bit along the northern edge of the low level jet,
possibly allowing showers and storms to linger along our southern
border through late morning.

This morning`s storms will most likely leave one or more outflow
boundaries across central MO for this afternoon, and the synoptic
cold front currently in southeast Nebraska will also drift southward
today and stall north of the Ozarks. These boundaries could serve as
a focus for afternoon convection, especially as a weak shortwave
trough passes overhead during the afternoon and early evening hours.
The strength of any storms that develop will depend on how much
clearing occurs and thus how much instability can build today, but
at least a few strong to severe storms are possible along the cold
front or any of the lingering outflow boundaries, mainly south of
I-70. Deep layer shear values will increase into the 40-50 kt range
by mid afternoon across central MO, supporting organized convection
should any robust updrafts develop in our CWA. Damaging winds and
large hail are both possible with any stronger storms that develop.
As the shortwave trough pushes southeast later this afternoon into
the evening, the cold front and any other lingering boundaries will
be driven southeast out of the forecast area for the later evening
and overnight hours.

Quiet conditions and near to slightly below normal temperatures are
expected for Tuesday with the front remaining south of the forecast
area; however, developing lee side low pressure and resultant south
southwest flow at low levels will help drive the boundary back north
for Wednesday, bringing another chance of scattered storms and above
normal temperatures back into the CWA. Strong/severe storms are not
expected due to lacking focus for convection and fairly weak flow
aloft.

Warm temperatures will continue for Thursday, then a much stronger
cold front is expected to dive southward into the region on Friday
or Friday night. Showers and storms are expected from late Thursday
night through Saturday morning in association with this system, and
temperatures should drop significantly by the weekend in its wake.
Highs Saturday and Sunday may only top out in the mid 70s as 850
temperatures drop into the 7 to 10 C range, and dry conditions are
anticipated behind the front for the remainder of Saturday through
the end of the forecast period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Line of storms that affected the terminals tonight has moved through as
of this time, leaving strati-form rain and VCTS as the primary weather
at our sites currently. This activity could last through 11Z at the
Kansas City terminals, but should end sooner at KSTJ --09Z--.
Otherwise, expect southerly winds to prevail for much of the day
behind the exiting rain. There will be a returning threat for
thunderstorms generally near and south of Kansas City again Monday
afternoon, so have inserted VCTS in after 21Z.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KSGF 010818
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
318 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

...Strong to Severe Storms and Heavy Rainfall in the Forecast For
the Missouri Ozarks...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Active start this morning with a QLCS moving across southeast
Kansas into western Missouri as of 3 am. This line of storms has
been producing 40 to 50 mph winds occasionally up to near 60 in
isolated spots. The latest 4KM WRF shows this line of storms
making its way down to the Springfield area by sunrise and slowly
dissipating through mid morning. The main threat this morning will
be frequent lightning and gusty winds along with very heavy
downpours. Areas north and west of I-44 will likely see between
half an inch to an inch of rainfall this morning with locally
heavier amounts.

The big question for today is how this early morning convection
will play into the afternoon heating and evening convection.
Current thinking is this activity will end by late morning and
clearing will occur by midday. Temperatures will climb back into
the upper 80s to near 90 south of where the frontal boundary sets
up. The boundary will likely setup from near Pittsburg Kansas to
central Missouri by late afternoon and evening.

Forecast MLCape values will be between 2000 and 3000 J/KG. Bulk
shear will be on the order of 40 to 50 knots. A wave of low
pressure will develop over south central Kansas late
afternoon/evening and ride up along the frontal boundary. Low
level winds may back somewhat and slightly enhance low-level shear
for a slight tornado threat into the evening hours for portions of
southeast Kansas and southwestern Missouri. SPC has the area in a
slight risk for severe storms today.

A few supercells initially will be possible eventually merging
into a QLCS and linear storm complex late evening and overnight
across the Missouri Ozarks. The overall main threat will be
damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and large hail up to golf balls
size possible. Tornado threat will be limited and mainly for the
early evening hours.

Late this evening into the overnight hours...the main concerns
will turn into more of a hydro or heavy rainfall situation
depending on where these storms will train over the same area.
Storm total rainfall possible from today through Tuesday night is
between 1 to 2 inches south of I-44 and 2 to 4 inches north of
I-44 with locally heavier amounts. The ground should be able to
take several inches being so dry lately. The problem to watch is
rainfall rates and training of storms. There will be a limited or
localized flash flooding threat but confidence is too low to issue
any watch at this time. Will like to see what rainfall this
morning`s convection produces and have the day shift take another
look at any headlines that might be needed for tonight`s round of
storms.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

The front stalls out Tuesday right over the area and additional
scattered storms will be around Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
front eventually lifts back northward on Wednesday with more
scattered storms possible over central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks.

Upper level ridge of high pressure briefly builds in for Thursday
with drier and warmer weather for the end of the week. A Canadian
front makes a run for the area late Friday into Saturday and slows
down. Scattered convection will be in the forecast with this slow
moving front for the weekend. Followed more closely with the ECMWF
for the weekend with the front clearing through the area by Sunday
and surface high builds in for Sunday. Slightly cooler and drier
airmass will follow with below average temperatures.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Convection progressing more eastward than southward which will add
a few hours to first though earlier this evening with main
convection getting in the SGF/JLN areas by 10-11z. VFR conditions
expected outside of convection with MVFR within any convection.
Convective trends will likely start to diminish by mid morning and
as it pushes further south so far now will go with a prob30 group
with this area of convection. Redevelopment will be possible late
in the afternoon/early evening. Non-convective low level wind
shear will be possible at SGF/JLN overnight with strong low level
jet setting up over the area.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 010818
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
318 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

...Strong to Severe Storms and Heavy Rainfall in the Forecast For
the Missouri Ozarks...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Active start this morning with a QLCS moving across southeast
Kansas into western Missouri as of 3 am. This line of storms has
been producing 40 to 50 mph winds occasionally up to near 60 in
isolated spots. The latest 4KM WRF shows this line of storms
making its way down to the Springfield area by sunrise and slowly
dissipating through mid morning. The main threat this morning will
be frequent lightning and gusty winds along with very heavy
downpours. Areas north and west of I-44 will likely see between
half an inch to an inch of rainfall this morning with locally
heavier amounts.

The big question for today is how this early morning convection
will play into the afternoon heating and evening convection.
Current thinking is this activity will end by late morning and
clearing will occur by midday. Temperatures will climb back into
the upper 80s to near 90 south of where the frontal boundary sets
up. The boundary will likely setup from near Pittsburg Kansas to
central Missouri by late afternoon and evening.

Forecast MLCape values will be between 2000 and 3000 J/KG. Bulk
shear will be on the order of 40 to 50 knots. A wave of low
pressure will develop over south central Kansas late
afternoon/evening and ride up along the frontal boundary. Low
level winds may back somewhat and slightly enhance low-level shear
for a slight tornado threat into the evening hours for portions of
southeast Kansas and southwestern Missouri. SPC has the area in a
slight risk for severe storms today.

A few supercells initially will be possible eventually merging
into a QLCS and linear storm complex late evening and overnight
across the Missouri Ozarks. The overall main threat will be
damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and large hail up to golf balls
size possible. Tornado threat will be limited and mainly for the
early evening hours.

Late this evening into the overnight hours...the main concerns
will turn into more of a hydro or heavy rainfall situation
depending on where these storms will train over the same area.
Storm total rainfall possible from today through Tuesday night is
between 1 to 2 inches south of I-44 and 2 to 4 inches north of
I-44 with locally heavier amounts. The ground should be able to
take several inches being so dry lately. The problem to watch is
rainfall rates and training of storms. There will be a limited or
localized flash flooding threat but confidence is too low to issue
any watch at this time. Will like to see what rainfall this
morning`s convection produces and have the day shift take another
look at any headlines that might be needed for tonight`s round of
storms.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

The front stalls out Tuesday right over the area and additional
scattered storms will be around Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
front eventually lifts back northward on Wednesday with more
scattered storms possible over central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks.

Upper level ridge of high pressure briefly builds in for Thursday
with drier and warmer weather for the end of the week. A Canadian
front makes a run for the area late Friday into Saturday and slows
down. Scattered convection will be in the forecast with this slow
moving front for the weekend. Followed more closely with the ECMWF
for the weekend with the front clearing through the area by Sunday
and surface high builds in for Sunday. Slightly cooler and drier
airmass will follow with below average temperatures.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Convection progressing more eastward than southward which will add
a few hours to first though earlier this evening with main
convection getting in the SGF/JLN areas by 10-11z. VFR conditions
expected outside of convection with MVFR within any convection.
Convective trends will likely start to diminish by mid morning and
as it pushes further south so far now will go with a prob30 group
with this area of convection. Redevelopment will be possible late
in the afternoon/early evening. Non-convective low level wind
shear will be possible at SGF/JLN overnight with strong low level
jet setting up over the area.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KEAX 010451
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1151 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Afternoon water vapor imagery showing long advertised Pacific trough
digging into the central Plains this afternoon...with strong
shortwave energy now seen entering western Nebraska. Strengthening
wind fields along the southern edge of this feature have advected
Mexican Plateau air /i.e. elevated mixed layer/ east across the
central/southern Plains as seen on the latest 7.4 micron water vapor
GOES sounder channel. Latest RUC analysis shows 7-500 mb lapse rates
approaching 9C/km across western Kansas and Nebraska...and fcst
models suggest this mid-level airmass will continue tracking east
into our region overnight. Along the surface...latest analysis shows
a developing leeside low across southeastern Colorado...with a
northward extending frontal boundary draped across the Plains which
then joins the main area of low pressure now found along the
Minnesota/Manitoba border. With time this evening...aforementioned
boundary will progress eastward as upstream troughing continues to
settle into the central and southern Plains. Airmass ahead of both
the cold front and upper wave continues to destabilize with latest
SPC meso graphics yielding as much as 3500 joules of MLCAPE between
KC and Topeka. Most importantly however...deep layered shear will
continue increasing as well as mid- level wind max moves into the
area overnight. All said...ingredients appear to be coming together
for a fairly active evening and overnight period.

Latest radar trends now showing developing cells across north-central
Kansas along the previously mentioned frontal boundary. Storms
should continue to fire this afternoon before gradually spreading east
through the early evening and overnight. As has been advertised in
recent days quite well by numerical models...isolated convection to
our west and north will likely congeal into a forward propagating MCS
this evening just before it enters northwestern Missouri. As this
occurs...deep layered shear will continue to strengthen as a low-
level jet increases to nearly 50 kts directly overhead. This poses
two potential issues for our region:

1) Maintenance of ongoing severe weather as cold pool continues to
track southeast with time into northwest Missouri/northeast Kansas

2) Increasing likelihood for developing heavy rain/possible flooding as
low-level jet ascends any convectively generated cold pools

The above said...main concerns severe-wise for our area will remain
strong damaging winds as cold pool for developing MCS tracks south
and east with time. Current thinking is damaging wind potential will
gradually decrease as storms approach the greater KC area...however
cannot rule out strong gusts in and around the metro during the late
evening hrs. Additionally...a low-end tornado threat does exist across
far northwest Missouri as strong updrafts continue to tilt horizontal
vorticity into the vertical along the leading edge of the cold pool
as it tracks south and east with time. For now...agree completely with
where SPC has the highest tornado threat /NW MO/ as further progress
to the south and east will likely result in a less favorable
environment due to nocturnal cooling/low-level stabilization effects.
In terms of hydro concerns...have elected to go with a flash flood
watch for much of northwest MO/northeast Kansas as potential exists
for training convection if an outflow boundary lays out across
central Missouri. As alluded to above...strength of developing low-
level jet is a little concerning especially when PWAT values are
expected to increase to anywhere between 2-3 standard deviations
above normal as main front approaches. HPC QPF shows a 2+ inch
bullseye directly west of KC which appears to be in favor of
developing training after midnight. Would rather play it safe hence
the current flash flood watch which runs from 2z this evening through
15z Monday morning.

Front to slowly settle south of the region during the early morning
hrs. Another round of strong to severe storms is possible on
Monday...primarly south of the the greater KC area as daytime
heating combines with still impressive wind fields aloft. For
tomorrow...more optimal timing may support isolated supercell
structures as opposed to tonight/s linear activity. Regardless...have
maintained likely pops for most areas south of I-70 during the
afternoon hrs.

Front to clear the area tomorrow night which should support a mostly
dry Tuesday. Front slowly expected to lift north as a warm front
through the day on Wednesday but minimal impacts expected as no
significant features are at play to enhance upward vertical motion.
Temps by then should begin to rise with low to mid 90s possible
Wednesday afternoon as southerly flow reinvades the area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A little bit of everything during the extended portion of the
forecast. Storms early Wednesday, followed by a return of hot and
humid air until a cold front and more storms on Friday, then finally
some fall-like weather over the weekend.

Medium range models all on the same page with the overall pattern.
Mid-week zonal flow backs to the southwest in response to an upper
trough tracking east from the Northern Rockies through the Upper MS
Valley by Friday.

Elevated convection associated with a northward returning warm front
will affect the CWA early Wednesday followed by hot and humid air
spreading back into the region. This will likely last into Friday
when the southern extension of the Northern Plains upper trough
forces a cold front south and through the Mid MO River Valley by
Saturday morning. Moderately strong and broad area of high pressure
expanding southward will bring some much needed relief from the high
humidities.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Line of storms that affected the terminals tonight has moved through as
of this time, leaving strati-form rain and VCTS as the primary weather
at our sites currently. This activity could last through 11Z at the
Kansas City terminals, but should end sooner at KSTJ --09Z--.
Otherwise, expect southerly winds to prevail for much of the day
behind the exiting rain. There will be a returning threat for
thunderstorms generally near and south of Kansas City again Monday
afternoon, so have inserted VCTS in after 21Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT Monday FOR KSZ025-102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT Monday FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-
     020>022-028>030-037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 010451
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1151 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Afternoon water vapor imagery showing long advertised Pacific trough
digging into the central Plains this afternoon...with strong
shortwave energy now seen entering western Nebraska. Strengthening
wind fields along the southern edge of this feature have advected
Mexican Plateau air /i.e. elevated mixed layer/ east across the
central/southern Plains as seen on the latest 7.4 micron water vapor
GOES sounder channel. Latest RUC analysis shows 7-500 mb lapse rates
approaching 9C/km across western Kansas and Nebraska...and fcst
models suggest this mid-level airmass will continue tracking east
into our region overnight. Along the surface...latest analysis shows
a developing leeside low across southeastern Colorado...with a
northward extending frontal boundary draped across the Plains which
then joins the main area of low pressure now found along the
Minnesota/Manitoba border. With time this evening...aforementioned
boundary will progress eastward as upstream troughing continues to
settle into the central and southern Plains. Airmass ahead of both
the cold front and upper wave continues to destabilize with latest
SPC meso graphics yielding as much as 3500 joules of MLCAPE between
KC and Topeka. Most importantly however...deep layered shear will
continue increasing as well as mid- level wind max moves into the
area overnight. All said...ingredients appear to be coming together
for a fairly active evening and overnight period.

Latest radar trends now showing developing cells across north-central
Kansas along the previously mentioned frontal boundary. Storms
should continue to fire this afternoon before gradually spreading east
through the early evening and overnight. As has been advertised in
recent days quite well by numerical models...isolated convection to
our west and north will likely congeal into a forward propagating MCS
this evening just before it enters northwestern Missouri. As this
occurs...deep layered shear will continue to strengthen as a low-
level jet increases to nearly 50 kts directly overhead. This poses
two potential issues for our region:

1) Maintenance of ongoing severe weather as cold pool continues to
track southeast with time into northwest Missouri/northeast Kansas

2) Increasing likelihood for developing heavy rain/possible flooding as
low-level jet ascends any convectively generated cold pools

The above said...main concerns severe-wise for our area will remain
strong damaging winds as cold pool for developing MCS tracks south
and east with time. Current thinking is damaging wind potential will
gradually decrease as storms approach the greater KC area...however
cannot rule out strong gusts in and around the metro during the late
evening hrs. Additionally...a low-end tornado threat does exist across
far northwest Missouri as strong updrafts continue to tilt horizontal
vorticity into the vertical along the leading edge of the cold pool
as it tracks south and east with time. For now...agree completely with
where SPC has the highest tornado threat /NW MO/ as further progress
to the south and east will likely result in a less favorable
environment due to nocturnal cooling/low-level stabilization effects.
In terms of hydro concerns...have elected to go with a flash flood
watch for much of northwest MO/northeast Kansas as potential exists
for training convection if an outflow boundary lays out across
central Missouri. As alluded to above...strength of developing low-
level jet is a little concerning especially when PWAT values are
expected to increase to anywhere between 2-3 standard deviations
above normal as main front approaches. HPC QPF shows a 2+ inch
bullseye directly west of KC which appears to be in favor of
developing training after midnight. Would rather play it safe hence
the current flash flood watch which runs from 2z this evening through
15z Monday morning.

Front to slowly settle south of the region during the early morning
hrs. Another round of strong to severe storms is possible on
Monday...primarly south of the the greater KC area as daytime
heating combines with still impressive wind fields aloft. For
tomorrow...more optimal timing may support isolated supercell
structures as opposed to tonight/s linear activity. Regardless...have
maintained likely pops for most areas south of I-70 during the
afternoon hrs.

Front to clear the area tomorrow night which should support a mostly
dry Tuesday. Front slowly expected to lift north as a warm front
through the day on Wednesday but minimal impacts expected as no
significant features are at play to enhance upward vertical motion.
Temps by then should begin to rise with low to mid 90s possible
Wednesday afternoon as southerly flow reinvades the area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A little bit of everything during the extended portion of the
forecast. Storms early Wednesday, followed by a return of hot and
humid air until a cold front and more storms on Friday, then finally
some fall-like weather over the weekend.

Medium range models all on the same page with the overall pattern.
Mid-week zonal flow backs to the southwest in response to an upper
trough tracking east from the Northern Rockies through the Upper MS
Valley by Friday.

Elevated convection associated with a northward returning warm front
will affect the CWA early Wednesday followed by hot and humid air
spreading back into the region. This will likely last into Friday
when the southern extension of the Northern Plains upper trough
forces a cold front south and through the Mid MO River Valley by
Saturday morning. Moderately strong and broad area of high pressure
expanding southward will bring some much needed relief from the high
humidities.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Line of storms that affected the terminals tonight has moved through as
of this time, leaving strati-form rain and VCTS as the primary weather
at our sites currently. This activity could last through 11Z at the
Kansas City terminals, but should end sooner at KSTJ --09Z--.
Otherwise, expect southerly winds to prevail for much of the day
behind the exiting rain. There will be a returning threat for
thunderstorms generally near and south of Kansas City again Monday
afternoon, so have inserted VCTS in after 21Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT Monday FOR KSZ025-102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT Monday FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-
     020>022-028>030-037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 010451
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1151 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Afternoon water vapor imagery showing long advertised Pacific trough
digging into the central Plains this afternoon...with strong
shortwave energy now seen entering western Nebraska. Strengthening
wind fields along the southern edge of this feature have advected
Mexican Plateau air /i.e. elevated mixed layer/ east across the
central/southern Plains as seen on the latest 7.4 micron water vapor
GOES sounder channel. Latest RUC analysis shows 7-500 mb lapse rates
approaching 9C/km across western Kansas and Nebraska...and fcst
models suggest this mid-level airmass will continue tracking east
into our region overnight. Along the surface...latest analysis shows
a developing leeside low across southeastern Colorado...with a
northward extending frontal boundary draped across the Plains which
then joins the main area of low pressure now found along the
Minnesota/Manitoba border. With time this evening...aforementioned
boundary will progress eastward as upstream troughing continues to
settle into the central and southern Plains. Airmass ahead of both
the cold front and upper wave continues to destabilize with latest
SPC meso graphics yielding as much as 3500 joules of MLCAPE between
KC and Topeka. Most importantly however...deep layered shear will
continue increasing as well as mid- level wind max moves into the
area overnight. All said...ingredients appear to be coming together
for a fairly active evening and overnight period.

Latest radar trends now showing developing cells across north-central
Kansas along the previously mentioned frontal boundary. Storms
should continue to fire this afternoon before gradually spreading east
through the early evening and overnight. As has been advertised in
recent days quite well by numerical models...isolated convection to
our west and north will likely congeal into a forward propagating MCS
this evening just before it enters northwestern Missouri. As this
occurs...deep layered shear will continue to strengthen as a low-
level jet increases to nearly 50 kts directly overhead. This poses
two potential issues for our region:

1) Maintenance of ongoing severe weather as cold pool continues to
track southeast with time into northwest Missouri/northeast Kansas

2) Increasing likelihood for developing heavy rain/possible flooding as
low-level jet ascends any convectively generated cold pools

The above said...main concerns severe-wise for our area will remain
strong damaging winds as cold pool for developing MCS tracks south
and east with time. Current thinking is damaging wind potential will
gradually decrease as storms approach the greater KC area...however
cannot rule out strong gusts in and around the metro during the late
evening hrs. Additionally...a low-end tornado threat does exist across
far northwest Missouri as strong updrafts continue to tilt horizontal
vorticity into the vertical along the leading edge of the cold pool
as it tracks south and east with time. For now...agree completely with
where SPC has the highest tornado threat /NW MO/ as further progress
to the south and east will likely result in a less favorable
environment due to nocturnal cooling/low-level stabilization effects.
In terms of hydro concerns...have elected to go with a flash flood
watch for much of northwest MO/northeast Kansas as potential exists
for training convection if an outflow boundary lays out across
central Missouri. As alluded to above...strength of developing low-
level jet is a little concerning especially when PWAT values are
expected to increase to anywhere between 2-3 standard deviations
above normal as main front approaches. HPC QPF shows a 2+ inch
bullseye directly west of KC which appears to be in favor of
developing training after midnight. Would rather play it safe hence
the current flash flood watch which runs from 2z this evening through
15z Monday morning.

Front to slowly settle south of the region during the early morning
hrs. Another round of strong to severe storms is possible on
Monday...primarly south of the the greater KC area as daytime
heating combines with still impressive wind fields aloft. For
tomorrow...more optimal timing may support isolated supercell
structures as opposed to tonight/s linear activity. Regardless...have
maintained likely pops for most areas south of I-70 during the
afternoon hrs.

Front to clear the area tomorrow night which should support a mostly
dry Tuesday. Front slowly expected to lift north as a warm front
through the day on Wednesday but minimal impacts expected as no
significant features are at play to enhance upward vertical motion.
Temps by then should begin to rise with low to mid 90s possible
Wednesday afternoon as southerly flow reinvades the area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A little bit of everything during the extended portion of the
forecast. Storms early Wednesday, followed by a return of hot and
humid air until a cold front and more storms on Friday, then finally
some fall-like weather over the weekend.

Medium range models all on the same page with the overall pattern.
Mid-week zonal flow backs to the southwest in response to an upper
trough tracking east from the Northern Rockies through the Upper MS
Valley by Friday.

Elevated convection associated with a northward returning warm front
will affect the CWA early Wednesday followed by hot and humid air
spreading back into the region. This will likely last into Friday
when the southern extension of the Northern Plains upper trough
forces a cold front south and through the Mid MO River Valley by
Saturday morning. Moderately strong and broad area of high pressure
expanding southward will bring some much needed relief from the high
humidities.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Line of storms that affected the terminals tonight has moved through as
of this time, leaving strati-form rain and VCTS as the primary weather
at our sites currently. This activity could last through 11Z at the
Kansas City terminals, but should end sooner at KSTJ --09Z--.
Otherwise, expect southerly winds to prevail for much of the day
behind the exiting rain. There will be a returning threat for
thunderstorms generally near and south of Kansas City again Monday
afternoon, so have inserted VCTS in after 21Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT Monday FOR KSZ025-102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT Monday FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-
     020>022-028>030-037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 010451
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1151 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Afternoon water vapor imagery showing long advertised Pacific trough
digging into the central Plains this afternoon...with strong
shortwave energy now seen entering western Nebraska. Strengthening
wind fields along the southern edge of this feature have advected
Mexican Plateau air /i.e. elevated mixed layer/ east across the
central/southern Plains as seen on the latest 7.4 micron water vapor
GOES sounder channel. Latest RUC analysis shows 7-500 mb lapse rates
approaching 9C/km across western Kansas and Nebraska...and fcst
models suggest this mid-level airmass will continue tracking east
into our region overnight. Along the surface...latest analysis shows
a developing leeside low across southeastern Colorado...with a
northward extending frontal boundary draped across the Plains which
then joins the main area of low pressure now found along the
Minnesota/Manitoba border. With time this evening...aforementioned
boundary will progress eastward as upstream troughing continues to
settle into the central and southern Plains. Airmass ahead of both
the cold front and upper wave continues to destabilize with latest
SPC meso graphics yielding as much as 3500 joules of MLCAPE between
KC and Topeka. Most importantly however...deep layered shear will
continue increasing as well as mid- level wind max moves into the
area overnight. All said...ingredients appear to be coming together
for a fairly active evening and overnight period.

Latest radar trends now showing developing cells across north-central
Kansas along the previously mentioned frontal boundary. Storms
should continue to fire this afternoon before gradually spreading east
through the early evening and overnight. As has been advertised in
recent days quite well by numerical models...isolated convection to
our west and north will likely congeal into a forward propagating MCS
this evening just before it enters northwestern Missouri. As this
occurs...deep layered shear will continue to strengthen as a low-
level jet increases to nearly 50 kts directly overhead. This poses
two potential issues for our region:

1) Maintenance of ongoing severe weather as cold pool continues to
track southeast with time into northwest Missouri/northeast Kansas

2) Increasing likelihood for developing heavy rain/possible flooding as
low-level jet ascends any convectively generated cold pools

The above said...main concerns severe-wise for our area will remain
strong damaging winds as cold pool for developing MCS tracks south
and east with time. Current thinking is damaging wind potential will
gradually decrease as storms approach the greater KC area...however
cannot rule out strong gusts in and around the metro during the late
evening hrs. Additionally...a low-end tornado threat does exist across
far northwest Missouri as strong updrafts continue to tilt horizontal
vorticity into the vertical along the leading edge of the cold pool
as it tracks south and east with time. For now...agree completely with
where SPC has the highest tornado threat /NW MO/ as further progress
to the south and east will likely result in a less favorable
environment due to nocturnal cooling/low-level stabilization effects.
In terms of hydro concerns...have elected to go with a flash flood
watch for much of northwest MO/northeast Kansas as potential exists
for training convection if an outflow boundary lays out across
central Missouri. As alluded to above...strength of developing low-
level jet is a little concerning especially when PWAT values are
expected to increase to anywhere between 2-3 standard deviations
above normal as main front approaches. HPC QPF shows a 2+ inch
bullseye directly west of KC which appears to be in favor of
developing training after midnight. Would rather play it safe hence
the current flash flood watch which runs from 2z this evening through
15z Monday morning.

Front to slowly settle south of the region during the early morning
hrs. Another round of strong to severe storms is possible on
Monday...primarly south of the the greater KC area as daytime
heating combines with still impressive wind fields aloft. For
tomorrow...more optimal timing may support isolated supercell
structures as opposed to tonight/s linear activity. Regardless...have
maintained likely pops for most areas south of I-70 during the
afternoon hrs.

Front to clear the area tomorrow night which should support a mostly
dry Tuesday. Front slowly expected to lift north as a warm front
through the day on Wednesday but minimal impacts expected as no
significant features are at play to enhance upward vertical motion.
Temps by then should begin to rise with low to mid 90s possible
Wednesday afternoon as southerly flow reinvades the area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A little bit of everything during the extended portion of the
forecast. Storms early Wednesday, followed by a return of hot and
humid air until a cold front and more storms on Friday, then finally
some fall-like weather over the weekend.

Medium range models all on the same page with the overall pattern.
Mid-week zonal flow backs to the southwest in response to an upper
trough tracking east from the Northern Rockies through the Upper MS
Valley by Friday.

Elevated convection associated with a northward returning warm front
will affect the CWA early Wednesday followed by hot and humid air
spreading back into the region. This will likely last into Friday
when the southern extension of the Northern Plains upper trough
forces a cold front south and through the Mid MO River Valley by
Saturday morning. Moderately strong and broad area of high pressure
expanding southward will bring some much needed relief from the high
humidities.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Line of storms that affected the terminals tonight has moved through as
of this time, leaving strati-form rain and VCTS as the primary weather
at our sites currently. This activity could last through 11Z at the
Kansas City terminals, but should end sooner at KSTJ --09Z--.
Otherwise, expect southerly winds to prevail for much of the day
behind the exiting rain. There will be a returning threat for
thunderstorms generally near and south of Kansas City again Monday
afternoon, so have inserted VCTS in after 21Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT Monday FOR KSZ025-102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT Monday FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-
     020>022-028>030-037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KSGF 010429
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1129 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 242 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Looks quiet in the near term. A few showers have developed over
the far eastern cwfa but weak shortwave upper level riding has
kept things in check.

Strong/severe storms are expected to develop over the northern and
central Plains this evening as a shortwave moves east from the
Rockies. High res models move some convection into the northwest
and northern cwfa late tonight into Mon morning. By this time,
expect convection to become increasingly elevated as a strengthening
cap/elevated mixed layer spreads northeast into the area. Do have
some pops to account for this weakening convection.

Capping is expected to remain in place for much of the day Monday,
strongest over the sw quarter of the cwfa. A west-east oriented
sfc boundary is expected to set up somewhere, likely over central
MO late during the day, and expect to see renewed convection
develop late in the day and the evening with weakening capping
with another shortwave approaching, increased low level moisture
advection and convergence, and moderate instability. The window
for sfc or at least low level based convection will be fairly
narrow Monday night, but cold see a hail/wind threat during that
time. Training/back-building convection is also a possibility with
areas of heavy rain setting up somewhere over the cwfa Monday
night. The heavy rain possibility is becoming an increasing
concern, but many areas can take a good soaking right now. Still,
expect that we have at least a limited chance for some flash flooding
where excessive rain/runoff occurs.

.LONG TERM...(Tusday through Sunday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

The front is expected to stall over the southern cwfa Tuesday and
Tuesday night with continued chances for occasional thunderstorms.
The front is expected to finally lift back north Wednesday as
low pressure develops over the Plains in response to a shortwave
moving into the Rockies. A front will push back to the south by
late in the week as the shortwave passes north of the area. Have
rain chances Friday-Saturday. The ECMWF and GFS give the front a
pretty good bump to the south, moving Canadian high pressure into
the Corn Belt/Midwest next weekend with dry and cool weather
a possibility for late Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Convection progressing more eastward than southward which will add
a few hours to first though earlier this evening with main
convection getting in the SGF/JLN areas by 10-11z. VFR conditions
expected outside of convection with MVFR within any convection.
Convective trends will likely start to diminish by mid morning and
as it pushes further south so far now will go with a prob30 group
with this area of convection. Redevelopment will be possible late
in the afternoon/early evening. Non-convective low level wind
shear will be possible at SGF/JLN overnight with strong low level
jet setting up over the area.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 010429
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1129 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 242 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Looks quiet in the near term. A few showers have developed over
the far eastern cwfa but weak shortwave upper level riding has
kept things in check.

Strong/severe storms are expected to develop over the northern and
central Plains this evening as a shortwave moves east from the
Rockies. High res models move some convection into the northwest
and northern cwfa late tonight into Mon morning. By this time,
expect convection to become increasingly elevated as a strengthening
cap/elevated mixed layer spreads northeast into the area. Do have
some pops to account for this weakening convection.

Capping is expected to remain in place for much of the day Monday,
strongest over the sw quarter of the cwfa. A west-east oriented
sfc boundary is expected to set up somewhere, likely over central
MO late during the day, and expect to see renewed convection
develop late in the day and the evening with weakening capping
with another shortwave approaching, increased low level moisture
advection and convergence, and moderate instability. The window
for sfc or at least low level based convection will be fairly
narrow Monday night, but cold see a hail/wind threat during that
time. Training/back-building convection is also a possibility with
areas of heavy rain setting up somewhere over the cwfa Monday
night. The heavy rain possibility is becoming an increasing
concern, but many areas can take a good soaking right now. Still,
expect that we have at least a limited chance for some flash flooding
where excessive rain/runoff occurs.

.LONG TERM...(Tusday through Sunday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

The front is expected to stall over the southern cwfa Tuesday and
Tuesday night with continued chances for occasional thunderstorms.
The front is expected to finally lift back north Wednesday as
low pressure develops over the Plains in response to a shortwave
moving into the Rockies. A front will push back to the south by
late in the week as the shortwave passes north of the area. Have
rain chances Friday-Saturday. The ECMWF and GFS give the front a
pretty good bump to the south, moving Canadian high pressure into
the Corn Belt/Midwest next weekend with dry and cool weather
a possibility for late Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Convection progressing more eastward than southward which will add
a few hours to first though earlier this evening with main
convection getting in the SGF/JLN areas by 10-11z. VFR conditions
expected outside of convection with MVFR within any convection.
Convective trends will likely start to diminish by mid morning and
as it pushes further south so far now will go with a prob30 group
with this area of convection. Redevelopment will be possible late
in the afternoon/early evening. Non-convective low level wind
shear will be possible at SGF/JLN overnight with strong low level
jet setting up over the area.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KLSX 010423
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1123 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 905 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Progressive UA trof and associated cold front, as well as outflow
boundaries produced by intense convection so far this evening,
should cause convection stretching from western Iowa to central KS to
push across the NW half of our FA overnight. Rough timing based
on extrapolation of upstream radar data suggests leading edge of
precip moving into the Edina area by 05z/midnight.  While we are
missing much of today`s explicit guidance, from the data that is
available believe that the latest HRRR output has a best handle on
overnight trends in two aspects...being faster with the eastward
progression and suggesting that some precip may be knocking on the
western door of the STL metro by daybreak, and secondly more of a
focus on late night/predawn convection over eastern KS/W MO where
there should be good cold pool/low level jet interaction which
should focus the most robust convection in this area.

Forecast inherited from dayshift already trended specifics towards
the trends mentioned above, so going forecast looks quite good and
only minor adjustments needed to speed up onset of higher PoPs by
1-2 hours. If HRRR scenario does pan out I`m not too certain
about how much of a severe weather threat will reach our area, but
as mentioned by day shift there will likely be at least some
impact from upstream outflows that propagate east and produce
gusty winds.

Specific trends for Labor Day and Monday night...including the
potential for severe weather and heavy rain...will largely hinge on
how convection evolves across the region during the predawn hours
and into Monday morning;  specifically how long the early morning
convection lingers and where the associated outflow boundary will be
located during the afternoon.  While there is still quite a bit of
uncertainty on how the convection will evolve, it certainly appears
that outdoor plans may be altered in many areas due to the
weather.

Update will be issued as soon as 02x surface data can be ingested
and assimilated into database.

Truett

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms over southeast portions
of the CWFA should dissipate fairly quickly this evening.  Until
then, locally heavy downpours will continue over parts of the
eastern Ozarks.  Attention turns to tonight as a strong shortwave
will move from eastern Wyoming into the eastern Nebraska/northwest
Missouri.  An MCS is expected to develop ahead of it on the nose of
a 40kt low level jet over the eastern Plains.  The model consensus
keeps the vast majority of the precipitation over western/north
central Missouri tonight.  However, it does look like the leading
edge will nose into central and northeast Missouri between 08Z and
12Z.  Not sure how much of the strength of the storms by that
point.  Current thinking is that the cold pool may outrun the best
forcing causing the MCS to weaken as it moves east.  This scenario
would have the rain moving into western portions of the CWFA between
08Z and 10Z.  There may be some gusty winds as the outflow moves
through, but the most significant impact would likely be locally
heavy rain; and that looks more likely over western Missouri than in
central Missouri.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

We will see a break in what has been a hot pattern for us this past
week, as the upper level ridge breaks down, thanks to a pair of
decently strong shortwave TROFs.  Much of the energy from these
shortwaves will pass us to the north, but nevertheless, we are
expecting high probabilities of rain from both of these systems
because of either a favorable position of the low level jet or
synoptic front and a very moist, deep warm-cloud atmosphere.

The first system is expected to be ongoing early Monday morning for
areas north and west of STL metro while in a slowly weakening
state.  This rain is expected to reach the STL metro area before
dissipating or scattering out, with an anticipated boundary setup
near or just south of the I-70 corridor for new development in the
afternoon.  There is also some potential for scattered development
Monday afternoon further north and west near the synoptic front in
northern MO and central IL.

The second system on Monday night should make more of a pass to the
south and interact with the synoptic front now deeper into our
region and favorable axis of the low level jet.  In addition, there
is potential for localized heavy rainfall with PWs of around 2
inches and warm-cloud depths in excess of 4km and training storms.

The front is then expected to stall over southern MO Tuesday before
pushing north as a warm front on Wednesday with persistent, but
lesser, chances for storms.

While the humidity air never really goes away thru late week, it
should be just cool enough to prevent any dangerous heat and
humidity conditions until perhaps when the warm front pushes thru
Wednesday and into Friday.

A period of dry weather is anticipated Thursday through early Friday
with a warm-sector setup, with the next, and what looks to be much
stronger, cold front pushing thru late Friday thru early Saturday.
Increased chances for rain will return with the front with all early
indications showing a cool and dry period next weekend for most
areas.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Convection extending from IA southwest through northwestern MO and
KS just ahead of a cold front will drop southeastward into the
UIN and COU areas late tonight, and then eventually into the St
Louis metro area towards morning as it weakens. New convective
development is expected late Monday afternoon and early evening
mainly in COU and the St Louis metro area between the approaching
cold front and an outflow boundary left from the late
night/morning storm complex. S-sely surface winds late tonight
will gradually veer around to a swly direction Monday morning.

Specifics for KSTL: Weakening showers and storms are expected to
drop southeastward into STL area by early Monday morning. There
will be a break in the convection with redevelopment of storms
expected late Monday afternoon and evening. S-sely surface winds
late tonight wlll increase to around 14 kts by late Monday
morning from a swly direction.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 010423
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1123 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 905 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Progressive UA trof and associated cold front, as well as outflow
boundaries produced by intense convection so far this evening,
should cause convection stretching from western Iowa to central KS to
push across the NW half of our FA overnight. Rough timing based
on extrapolation of upstream radar data suggests leading edge of
precip moving into the Edina area by 05z/midnight.  While we are
missing much of today`s explicit guidance, from the data that is
available believe that the latest HRRR output has a best handle on
overnight trends in two aspects...being faster with the eastward
progression and suggesting that some precip may be knocking on the
western door of the STL metro by daybreak, and secondly more of a
focus on late night/predawn convection over eastern KS/W MO where
there should be good cold pool/low level jet interaction which
should focus the most robust convection in this area.

Forecast inherited from dayshift already trended specifics towards
the trends mentioned above, so going forecast looks quite good and
only minor adjustments needed to speed up onset of higher PoPs by
1-2 hours. If HRRR scenario does pan out I`m not too certain
about how much of a severe weather threat will reach our area, but
as mentioned by day shift there will likely be at least some
impact from upstream outflows that propagate east and produce
gusty winds.

Specific trends for Labor Day and Monday night...including the
potential for severe weather and heavy rain...will largely hinge on
how convection evolves across the region during the predawn hours
and into Monday morning;  specifically how long the early morning
convection lingers and where the associated outflow boundary will be
located during the afternoon.  While there is still quite a bit of
uncertainty on how the convection will evolve, it certainly appears
that outdoor plans may be altered in many areas due to the
weather.

Update will be issued as soon as 02x surface data can be ingested
and assimilated into database.

Truett

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms over southeast portions
of the CWFA should dissipate fairly quickly this evening.  Until
then, locally heavy downpours will continue over parts of the
eastern Ozarks.  Attention turns to tonight as a strong shortwave
will move from eastern Wyoming into the eastern Nebraska/northwest
Missouri.  An MCS is expected to develop ahead of it on the nose of
a 40kt low level jet over the eastern Plains.  The model consensus
keeps the vast majority of the precipitation over western/north
central Missouri tonight.  However, it does look like the leading
edge will nose into central and northeast Missouri between 08Z and
12Z.  Not sure how much of the strength of the storms by that
point.  Current thinking is that the cold pool may outrun the best
forcing causing the MCS to weaken as it moves east.  This scenario
would have the rain moving into western portions of the CWFA between
08Z and 10Z.  There may be some gusty winds as the outflow moves
through, but the most significant impact would likely be locally
heavy rain; and that looks more likely over western Missouri than in
central Missouri.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

We will see a break in what has been a hot pattern for us this past
week, as the upper level ridge breaks down, thanks to a pair of
decently strong shortwave TROFs.  Much of the energy from these
shortwaves will pass us to the north, but nevertheless, we are
expecting high probabilities of rain from both of these systems
because of either a favorable position of the low level jet or
synoptic front and a very moist, deep warm-cloud atmosphere.

The first system is expected to be ongoing early Monday morning for
areas north and west of STL metro while in a slowly weakening
state.  This rain is expected to reach the STL metro area before
dissipating or scattering out, with an anticipated boundary setup
near or just south of the I-70 corridor for new development in the
afternoon.  There is also some potential for scattered development
Monday afternoon further north and west near the synoptic front in
northern MO and central IL.

The second system on Monday night should make more of a pass to the
south and interact with the synoptic front now deeper into our
region and favorable axis of the low level jet.  In addition, there
is potential for localized heavy rainfall with PWs of around 2
inches and warm-cloud depths in excess of 4km and training storms.

The front is then expected to stall over southern MO Tuesday before
pushing north as a warm front on Wednesday with persistent, but
lesser, chances for storms.

While the humidity air never really goes away thru late week, it
should be just cool enough to prevent any dangerous heat and
humidity conditions until perhaps when the warm front pushes thru
Wednesday and into Friday.

A period of dry weather is anticipated Thursday through early Friday
with a warm-sector setup, with the next, and what looks to be much
stronger, cold front pushing thru late Friday thru early Saturday.
Increased chances for rain will return with the front with all early
indications showing a cool and dry period next weekend for most
areas.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Convection extending from IA southwest through northwestern MO and
KS just ahead of a cold front will drop southeastward into the
UIN and COU areas late tonight, and then eventually into the St
Louis metro area towards morning as it weakens. New convective
development is expected late Monday afternoon and early evening
mainly in COU and the St Louis metro area between the approaching
cold front and an outflow boundary left from the late
night/morning storm complex. S-sely surface winds late tonight
will gradually veer around to a swly direction Monday morning.

Specifics for KSTL: Weakening showers and storms are expected to
drop southeastward into STL area by early Monday morning. There
will be a break in the convection with redevelopment of storms
expected late Monday afternoon and evening. S-sely surface winds
late tonight wlll increase to around 14 kts by late Monday
morning from a swly direction.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 010348
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1048 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1034 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Line of thunderstorms generally steady state or weakening as they
move through eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Wind reports along
the edge of the line have ranged between 40 and 50 mph, although its
possible that there could continue to be an isolated 60 mph wind gust
or two along the leading edge of the line and/or any associated
outflow. MLCAPE values have dwindled down to around 1000 to 1500 J/kg
with MLCIN values climbing to around 150 J/kg, perhaps indicating
that existing activity is becoming more elevated as the boundary
layer cools. Surface winds in front of the line continue to be backed
to the south and gusty to around 20 mph, resulting in decent SRH
values (0-1 km of 250 m2/s2). Bottom line, with CIN values increasing
the severe threat is generally winding down, but other convective
parameters are concerning enough to warrant a continued threat for
isolated severe winds through the next several hours.

Precipitable water values of near 1.5 - 2.0 inches will keep the
heavy rain and flooding threat a concern through the overnight hours,
especially as the thunderstorm complex moves through the KC metro.
The ongoing storm activity will continue to be fed by a strong low
level jet, which will continue the storm activity. Will continue to
watch the potential for flooding through the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Afternoon water vapor imagery showing long advertised Pacific trough
digging into the central Plains this afternoon...with strong
shortwave energy now seen entering western Nebraska. Strengthening
wind fields along the southern edge of this feature have advected
Mexican Plateau air /i.e. elevated mixed layer/ east across the
central/southern Plains as seen on the latest 7.4 micron water vapor
GOES sounder channel. Latest RUC analysis shows 7-500 mb lapse rates
approaching 9C/km across western Kansas and Nebraska...and fcst
models suggest this mid-level airmass will continue tracking east
into our region overnight. Along the surface...latest analysis shows
a developing leeside low across southeastern Colorado...with a
northward extending frontal boundary draped across the Plains which
then joins the main area of low pressure now found along the
Minnesota/Manitoba border. With time this evening...aforementioned
boundary will progress eastward as upstream troughing continues to
settle into the central and southern Plains. Airmass ahead of both
the cold front and upper wave continues to destabilize with latest
SPC meso graphics yielding as much as 3500 joules of MLCAPE between
KC and Topeka. Most importantly however...deep layered shear will
continue increasing as well as mid- level wind max moves into the
area overnight. All said...ingredients appear to be coming together
for a fairly active evening and overnight period.

Latest radar trends now showing developing cells across north-central
Kansas along the previously mentioned frontal boundary. Storms
should continue to fire this afternoon before gradually spreading east
through the early evening and overnight. As has been advertised in
recent days quite well by numerical models...isolated convection to
our west and north will likely congeal into a forward propagating MCS
this evening just before it enters northwestern Missouri. As this
occurs...deep layered shear will continue to strengthen as a low-
level jet increases to nearly 50 kts directly overhead. This poses
two potential issues for our region:

1) Maintenance of ongoing severe weather as cold pool continues to
track southeast with time into northwest Missouri/northeast Kansas

2) Increasing likelihood for developing heavy rain/possible flooding as
low-level jet ascends any convectively generated cold pools

The above said...main concerns severe-wise for our area will remain
strong damaging winds as cold pool for developing MCS tracks south
and east with time. Current thinking is damaging wind potential will
gradually decrease as storms approach the greater KC area...however
cannot rule out strong gusts in and around the metro during the late
evening hrs. Additionally...a low-end tornado threat does exist across
far northwest Missouri as strong updrafts continue to tilt horizontal
vorticity into the vertical along the leading edge of the cold pool
as it tracks south and east with time. For now...agree completely with
where SPC has the highest tornado threat /NW MO/ as further progress
to the south and east will likely result in a less favorable
environment due to nocturnal cooling/low-level stabilization effects.
In terms of hydro concerns...have elected to go with a flash flood
watch for much of northwest MO/northeast Kansas as potential exists
for training convection if an outflow boundary lays out across
central Missouri. As alluded to above...strength of developing low-
level jet is a little concerning especially when PWAT values are
expected to increase to anywhere between 2-3 standard deviations
above normal as main front approaches. HPC QPF shows a 2+ inch
bullseye directly west of KC which appears to be in favor of
developing training after midnight. Would rather play it safe hence
the current flash flood watch which runs from 2z this evening through
15z Monday morning.

Front to slowly settle south of the region during the early morning
hrs. Another round of strong to severe storms is possible on
Monday...primarly south of the the greater KC area as daytime
heating combines with still impressive wind fields aloft. For
tomorrow...more optimal timing may support isolated supercell
structures as opposed to tonight/s linear activity. Regardless...have
maintained likely pops for most areas south of I-70 during the
afternoon hrs.

Front to clear the area tomorrow night which should support a mostly
dry Tuesday. Front slowly expected to lift north as a warm front
through the day on Wednesday but minimal impacts expected as no
significant features are at play to enhance upward vertical motion.
Temps by then should begin to rise with low to mid 90s possible
Wednesday afternoon as southerly flow reinvades the area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A little bit of everything during the extended portion of the
forecast. Storms early Wednesday, followed by a return of hot and
humid air until a cold front and more storms on Friday, then finally
some fall-like weather over the weekend.

Medium range models all on the same page with the overall pattern.
Mid-week zonal flow backs to the southwest in response to an upper
trough tracking east from the Northern Rockies through the Upper MS
Valley by Friday.

Elevated convection associated with a northward returning warm front
will affect the CWA early Wednesday followed by hot and humid air
spreading back into the region. This will likely last into Friday
when the southern extension of the Northern Plains upper trough
forces a cold front south and through the Mid MO River Valley by
Saturday morning. Moderately strong and broad area of high pressure
expanding southward will bring some much needed relief from the high
humidities.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Forecast is still on track for a line of thunderstorms to move
through each terminal over the next several hours. The line will be
approaching from the west/northwest, so KSTJ will be affected
earliest in the forecast period, with KMCI and KMKC shortly
following. The probability for severe weather is marginal at this
point, but these storms could bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the
terminals through the late evening and overnight period. The best
window for heavy rain and strong winds will only be a couple hours,
but light rain with occasional/frequent lightning will follow the
main punch and last through the night time hours before clearing out
by early Monday morning. Thereafter models hinting at some MVFR CIGs
through most of the day on Monday before becoming VFR by late
morning/early afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT Monday FOR KSZ025-102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT Monday FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-
     020>022-028>030-037.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Leighton
SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 010348
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1048 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1034 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Line of thunderstorms generally steady state or weakening as they
move through eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Wind reports along
the edge of the line have ranged between 40 and 50 mph, although its
possible that there could continue to be an isolated 60 mph wind gust
or two along the leading edge of the line and/or any associated
outflow. MLCAPE values have dwindled down to around 1000 to 1500 J/kg
with MLCIN values climbing to around 150 J/kg, perhaps indicating
that existing activity is becoming more elevated as the boundary
layer cools. Surface winds in front of the line continue to be backed
to the south and gusty to around 20 mph, resulting in decent SRH
values (0-1 km of 250 m2/s2). Bottom line, with CIN values increasing
the severe threat is generally winding down, but other convective
parameters are concerning enough to warrant a continued threat for
isolated severe winds through the next several hours.

Precipitable water values of near 1.5 - 2.0 inches will keep the
heavy rain and flooding threat a concern through the overnight hours,
especially as the thunderstorm complex moves through the KC metro.
The ongoing storm activity will continue to be fed by a strong low
level jet, which will continue the storm activity. Will continue to
watch the potential for flooding through the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Afternoon water vapor imagery showing long advertised Pacific trough
digging into the central Plains this afternoon...with strong
shortwave energy now seen entering western Nebraska. Strengthening
wind fields along the southern edge of this feature have advected
Mexican Plateau air /i.e. elevated mixed layer/ east across the
central/southern Plains as seen on the latest 7.4 micron water vapor
GOES sounder channel. Latest RUC analysis shows 7-500 mb lapse rates
approaching 9C/km across western Kansas and Nebraska...and fcst
models suggest this mid-level airmass will continue tracking east
into our region overnight. Along the surface...latest analysis shows
a developing leeside low across southeastern Colorado...with a
northward extending frontal boundary draped across the Plains which
then joins the main area of low pressure now found along the
Minnesota/Manitoba border. With time this evening...aforementioned
boundary will progress eastward as upstream troughing continues to
settle into the central and southern Plains. Airmass ahead of both
the cold front and upper wave continues to destabilize with latest
SPC meso graphics yielding as much as 3500 joules of MLCAPE between
KC and Topeka. Most importantly however...deep layered shear will
continue increasing as well as mid- level wind max moves into the
area overnight. All said...ingredients appear to be coming together
for a fairly active evening and overnight period.

Latest radar trends now showing developing cells across north-central
Kansas along the previously mentioned frontal boundary. Storms
should continue to fire this afternoon before gradually spreading east
through the early evening and overnight. As has been advertised in
recent days quite well by numerical models...isolated convection to
our west and north will likely congeal into a forward propagating MCS
this evening just before it enters northwestern Missouri. As this
occurs...deep layered shear will continue to strengthen as a low-
level jet increases to nearly 50 kts directly overhead. This poses
two potential issues for our region:

1) Maintenance of ongoing severe weather as cold pool continues to
track southeast with time into northwest Missouri/northeast Kansas

2) Increasing likelihood for developing heavy rain/possible flooding as
low-level jet ascends any convectively generated cold pools

The above said...main concerns severe-wise for our area will remain
strong damaging winds as cold pool for developing MCS tracks south
and east with time. Current thinking is damaging wind potential will
gradually decrease as storms approach the greater KC area...however
cannot rule out strong gusts in and around the metro during the late
evening hrs. Additionally...a low-end tornado threat does exist across
far northwest Missouri as strong updrafts continue to tilt horizontal
vorticity into the vertical along the leading edge of the cold pool
as it tracks south and east with time. For now...agree completely with
where SPC has the highest tornado threat /NW MO/ as further progress
to the south and east will likely result in a less favorable
environment due to nocturnal cooling/low-level stabilization effects.
In terms of hydro concerns...have elected to go with a flash flood
watch for much of northwest MO/northeast Kansas as potential exists
for training convection if an outflow boundary lays out across
central Missouri. As alluded to above...strength of developing low-
level jet is a little concerning especially when PWAT values are
expected to increase to anywhere between 2-3 standard deviations
above normal as main front approaches. HPC QPF shows a 2+ inch
bullseye directly west of KC which appears to be in favor of
developing training after midnight. Would rather play it safe hence
the current flash flood watch which runs from 2z this evening through
15z Monday morning.

Front to slowly settle south of the region during the early morning
hrs. Another round of strong to severe storms is possible on
Monday...primarly south of the the greater KC area as daytime
heating combines with still impressive wind fields aloft. For
tomorrow...more optimal timing may support isolated supercell
structures as opposed to tonight/s linear activity. Regardless...have
maintained likely pops for most areas south of I-70 during the
afternoon hrs.

Front to clear the area tomorrow night which should support a mostly
dry Tuesday. Front slowly expected to lift north as a warm front
through the day on Wednesday but minimal impacts expected as no
significant features are at play to enhance upward vertical motion.
Temps by then should begin to rise with low to mid 90s possible
Wednesday afternoon as southerly flow reinvades the area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A little bit of everything during the extended portion of the
forecast. Storms early Wednesday, followed by a return of hot and
humid air until a cold front and more storms on Friday, then finally
some fall-like weather over the weekend.

Medium range models all on the same page with the overall pattern.
Mid-week zonal flow backs to the southwest in response to an upper
trough tracking east from the Northern Rockies through the Upper MS
Valley by Friday.

Elevated convection associated with a northward returning warm front
will affect the CWA early Wednesday followed by hot and humid air
spreading back into the region. This will likely last into Friday
when the southern extension of the Northern Plains upper trough
forces a cold front south and through the Mid MO River Valley by
Saturday morning. Moderately strong and broad area of high pressure
expanding southward will bring some much needed relief from the high
humidities.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Forecast is still on track for a line of thunderstorms to move
through each terminal over the next several hours. The line will be
approaching from the west/northwest, so KSTJ will be affected
earliest in the forecast period, with KMCI and KMKC shortly
following. The probability for severe weather is marginal at this
point, but these storms could bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the
terminals through the late evening and overnight period. The best
window for heavy rain and strong winds will only be a couple hours,
but light rain with occasional/frequent lightning will follow the
main punch and last through the night time hours before clearing out
by early Monday morning. Thereafter models hinting at some MVFR CIGs
through most of the day on Monday before becoming VFR by late
morning/early afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT Monday FOR KSZ025-102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT Monday FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-
     020>022-028>030-037.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Leighton
SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 010348
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1048 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1034 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Line of thunderstorms generally steady state or weakening as they
move through eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Wind reports along
the edge of the line have ranged between 40 and 50 mph, although its
possible that there could continue to be an isolated 60 mph wind gust
or two along the leading edge of the line and/or any associated
outflow. MLCAPE values have dwindled down to around 1000 to 1500 J/kg
with MLCIN values climbing to around 150 J/kg, perhaps indicating
that existing activity is becoming more elevated as the boundary
layer cools. Surface winds in front of the line continue to be backed
to the south and gusty to around 20 mph, resulting in decent SRH
values (0-1 km of 250 m2/s2). Bottom line, with CIN values increasing
the severe threat is generally winding down, but other convective
parameters are concerning enough to warrant a continued threat for
isolated severe winds through the next several hours.

Precipitable water values of near 1.5 - 2.0 inches will keep the
heavy rain and flooding threat a concern through the overnight hours,
especially as the thunderstorm complex moves through the KC metro.
The ongoing storm activity will continue to be fed by a strong low
level jet, which will continue the storm activity. Will continue to
watch the potential for flooding through the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Afternoon water vapor imagery showing long advertised Pacific trough
digging into the central Plains this afternoon...with strong
shortwave energy now seen entering western Nebraska. Strengthening
wind fields along the southern edge of this feature have advected
Mexican Plateau air /i.e. elevated mixed layer/ east across the
central/southern Plains as seen on the latest 7.4 micron water vapor
GOES sounder channel. Latest RUC analysis shows 7-500 mb lapse rates
approaching 9C/km across western Kansas and Nebraska...and fcst
models suggest this mid-level airmass will continue tracking east
into our region overnight. Along the surface...latest analysis shows
a developing leeside low across southeastern Colorado...with a
northward extending frontal boundary draped across the Plains which
then joins the main area of low pressure now found along the
Minnesota/Manitoba border. With time this evening...aforementioned
boundary will progress eastward as upstream troughing continues to
settle into the central and southern Plains. Airmass ahead of both
the cold front and upper wave continues to destabilize with latest
SPC meso graphics yielding as much as 3500 joules of MLCAPE between
KC and Topeka. Most importantly however...deep layered shear will
continue increasing as well as mid- level wind max moves into the
area overnight. All said...ingredients appear to be coming together
for a fairly active evening and overnight period.

Latest radar trends now showing developing cells across north-central
Kansas along the previously mentioned frontal boundary. Storms
should continue to fire this afternoon before gradually spreading east
through the early evening and overnight. As has been advertised in
recent days quite well by numerical models...isolated convection to
our west and north will likely congeal into a forward propagating MCS
this evening just before it enters northwestern Missouri. As this
occurs...deep layered shear will continue to strengthen as a low-
level jet increases to nearly 50 kts directly overhead. This poses
two potential issues for our region:

1) Maintenance of ongoing severe weather as cold pool continues to
track southeast with time into northwest Missouri/northeast Kansas

2) Increasing likelihood for developing heavy rain/possible flooding as
low-level jet ascends any convectively generated cold pools

The above said...main concerns severe-wise for our area will remain
strong damaging winds as cold pool for developing MCS tracks south
and east with time. Current thinking is damaging wind potential will
gradually decrease as storms approach the greater KC area...however
cannot rule out strong gusts in and around the metro during the late
evening hrs. Additionally...a low-end tornado threat does exist across
far northwest Missouri as strong updrafts continue to tilt horizontal
vorticity into the vertical along the leading edge of the cold pool
as it tracks south and east with time. For now...agree completely with
where SPC has the highest tornado threat /NW MO/ as further progress
to the south and east will likely result in a less favorable
environment due to nocturnal cooling/low-level stabilization effects.
In terms of hydro concerns...have elected to go with a flash flood
watch for much of northwest MO/northeast Kansas as potential exists
for training convection if an outflow boundary lays out across
central Missouri. As alluded to above...strength of developing low-
level jet is a little concerning especially when PWAT values are
expected to increase to anywhere between 2-3 standard deviations
above normal as main front approaches. HPC QPF shows a 2+ inch
bullseye directly west of KC which appears to be in favor of
developing training after midnight. Would rather play it safe hence
the current flash flood watch which runs from 2z this evening through
15z Monday morning.

Front to slowly settle south of the region during the early morning
hrs. Another round of strong to severe storms is possible on
Monday...primarly south of the the greater KC area as daytime
heating combines with still impressive wind fields aloft. For
tomorrow...more optimal timing may support isolated supercell
structures as opposed to tonight/s linear activity. Regardless...have
maintained likely pops for most areas south of I-70 during the
afternoon hrs.

Front to clear the area tomorrow night which should support a mostly
dry Tuesday. Front slowly expected to lift north as a warm front
through the day on Wednesday but minimal impacts expected as no
significant features are at play to enhance upward vertical motion.
Temps by then should begin to rise with low to mid 90s possible
Wednesday afternoon as southerly flow reinvades the area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A little bit of everything during the extended portion of the
forecast. Storms early Wednesday, followed by a return of hot and
humid air until a cold front and more storms on Friday, then finally
some fall-like weather over the weekend.

Medium range models all on the same page with the overall pattern.
Mid-week zonal flow backs to the southwest in response to an upper
trough tracking east from the Northern Rockies through the Upper MS
Valley by Friday.

Elevated convection associated with a northward returning warm front
will affect the CWA early Wednesday followed by hot and humid air
spreading back into the region. This will likely last into Friday
when the southern extension of the Northern Plains upper trough
forces a cold front south and through the Mid MO River Valley by
Saturday morning. Moderately strong and broad area of high pressure
expanding southward will bring some much needed relief from the high
humidities.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Forecast is still on track for a line of thunderstorms to move
through each terminal over the next several hours. The line will be
approaching from the west/northwest, so KSTJ will be affected
earliest in the forecast period, with KMCI and KMKC shortly
following. The probability for severe weather is marginal at this
point, but these storms could bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the
terminals through the late evening and overnight period. The best
window for heavy rain and strong winds will only be a couple hours,
but light rain with occasional/frequent lightning will follow the
main punch and last through the night time hours before clearing out
by early Monday morning. Thereafter models hinting at some MVFR CIGs
through most of the day on Monday before becoming VFR by late
morning/early afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT Monday FOR KSZ025-102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT Monday FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-
     020>022-028>030-037.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Leighton
SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 010348
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1048 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1034 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Line of thunderstorms generally steady state or weakening as they
move through eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Wind reports along
the edge of the line have ranged between 40 and 50 mph, although its
possible that there could continue to be an isolated 60 mph wind gust
or two along the leading edge of the line and/or any associated
outflow. MLCAPE values have dwindled down to around 1000 to 1500 J/kg
with MLCIN values climbing to around 150 J/kg, perhaps indicating
that existing activity is becoming more elevated as the boundary
layer cools. Surface winds in front of the line continue to be backed
to the south and gusty to around 20 mph, resulting in decent SRH
values (0-1 km of 250 m2/s2). Bottom line, with CIN values increasing
the severe threat is generally winding down, but other convective
parameters are concerning enough to warrant a continued threat for
isolated severe winds through the next several hours.

Precipitable water values of near 1.5 - 2.0 inches will keep the
heavy rain and flooding threat a concern through the overnight hours,
especially as the thunderstorm complex moves through the KC metro.
The ongoing storm activity will continue to be fed by a strong low
level jet, which will continue the storm activity. Will continue to
watch the potential for flooding through the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Afternoon water vapor imagery showing long advertised Pacific trough
digging into the central Plains this afternoon...with strong
shortwave energy now seen entering western Nebraska. Strengthening
wind fields along the southern edge of this feature have advected
Mexican Plateau air /i.e. elevated mixed layer/ east across the
central/southern Plains as seen on the latest 7.4 micron water vapor
GOES sounder channel. Latest RUC analysis shows 7-500 mb lapse rates
approaching 9C/km across western Kansas and Nebraska...and fcst
models suggest this mid-level airmass will continue tracking east
into our region overnight. Along the surface...latest analysis shows
a developing leeside low across southeastern Colorado...with a
northward extending frontal boundary draped across the Plains which
then joins the main area of low pressure now found along the
Minnesota/Manitoba border. With time this evening...aforementioned
boundary will progress eastward as upstream troughing continues to
settle into the central and southern Plains. Airmass ahead of both
the cold front and upper wave continues to destabilize with latest
SPC meso graphics yielding as much as 3500 joules of MLCAPE between
KC and Topeka. Most importantly however...deep layered shear will
continue increasing as well as mid- level wind max moves into the
area overnight. All said...ingredients appear to be coming together
for a fairly active evening and overnight period.

Latest radar trends now showing developing cells across north-central
Kansas along the previously mentioned frontal boundary. Storms
should continue to fire this afternoon before gradually spreading east
through the early evening and overnight. As has been advertised in
recent days quite well by numerical models...isolated convection to
our west and north will likely congeal into a forward propagating MCS
this evening just before it enters northwestern Missouri. As this
occurs...deep layered shear will continue to strengthen as a low-
level jet increases to nearly 50 kts directly overhead. This poses
two potential issues for our region:

1) Maintenance of ongoing severe weather as cold pool continues to
track southeast with time into northwest Missouri/northeast Kansas

2) Increasing likelihood for developing heavy rain/possible flooding as
low-level jet ascends any convectively generated cold pools

The above said...main concerns severe-wise for our area will remain
strong damaging winds as cold pool for developing MCS tracks south
and east with time. Current thinking is damaging wind potential will
gradually decrease as storms approach the greater KC area...however
cannot rule out strong gusts in and around the metro during the late
evening hrs. Additionally...a low-end tornado threat does exist across
far northwest Missouri as strong updrafts continue to tilt horizontal
vorticity into the vertical along the leading edge of the cold pool
as it tracks south and east with time. For now...agree completely with
where SPC has the highest tornado threat /NW MO/ as further progress
to the south and east will likely result in a less favorable
environment due to nocturnal cooling/low-level stabilization effects.
In terms of hydro concerns...have elected to go with a flash flood
watch for much of northwest MO/northeast Kansas as potential exists
for training convection if an outflow boundary lays out across
central Missouri. As alluded to above...strength of developing low-
level jet is a little concerning especially when PWAT values are
expected to increase to anywhere between 2-3 standard deviations
above normal as main front approaches. HPC QPF shows a 2+ inch
bullseye directly west of KC which appears to be in favor of
developing training after midnight. Would rather play it safe hence
the current flash flood watch which runs from 2z this evening through
15z Monday morning.

Front to slowly settle south of the region during the early morning
hrs. Another round of strong to severe storms is possible on
Monday...primarly south of the the greater KC area as daytime
heating combines with still impressive wind fields aloft. For
tomorrow...more optimal timing may support isolated supercell
structures as opposed to tonight/s linear activity. Regardless...have
maintained likely pops for most areas south of I-70 during the
afternoon hrs.

Front to clear the area tomorrow night which should support a mostly
dry Tuesday. Front slowly expected to lift north as a warm front
through the day on Wednesday but minimal impacts expected as no
significant features are at play to enhance upward vertical motion.
Temps by then should begin to rise with low to mid 90s possible
Wednesday afternoon as southerly flow reinvades the area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A little bit of everything during the extended portion of the
forecast. Storms early Wednesday, followed by a return of hot and
humid air until a cold front and more storms on Friday, then finally
some fall-like weather over the weekend.

Medium range models all on the same page with the overall pattern.
Mid-week zonal flow backs to the southwest in response to an upper
trough tracking east from the Northern Rockies through the Upper MS
Valley by Friday.

Elevated convection associated with a northward returning warm front
will affect the CWA early Wednesday followed by hot and humid air
spreading back into the region. This will likely last into Friday
when the southern extension of the Northern Plains upper trough
forces a cold front south and through the Mid MO River Valley by
Saturday morning. Moderately strong and broad area of high pressure
expanding southward will bring some much needed relief from the high
humidities.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Forecast is still on track for a line of thunderstorms to move
through each terminal over the next several hours. The line will be
approaching from the west/northwest, so KSTJ will be affected
earliest in the forecast period, with KMCI and KMKC shortly
following. The probability for severe weather is marginal at this
point, but these storms could bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the
terminals through the late evening and overnight period. The best
window for heavy rain and strong winds will only be a couple hours,
but light rain with occasional/frequent lightning will follow the
main punch and last through the night time hours before clearing out
by early Monday morning. Thereafter models hinting at some MVFR CIGs
through most of the day on Monday before becoming VFR by late
morning/early afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT Monday FOR KSZ025-102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT Monday FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-
     020>022-028>030-037.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Leighton
SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KLSX 010209
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
909 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 905 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Progressive UA trof and associated cold front, as well as outflow
boundaries produced by intense convection so far this evening,
should cause convection stretching from western Iowa to central KS to
push across the NW half of our FA overnight. Rough timing based
on extrapolation of upstream radar data suggests leading edge of
precip moving into the Edina area by 05z/midnight.  While we are
missing much of today`s explicit guidance, from the data that is
available believe that the latest HRRR output has a best handle on
overnight trends in two aspects...being faster with the eastward
progression and suggesting that some precip may be knocking on the
western door of the STL metro by daybreak, and secondly more of a
focus on late night/predawn convection over eastern KS/W MO where
there should be good cold pool/low level jet interaction which
should focus the most robust convection in this area.

Forecast inherited from dayshift already trended specifics towards
the trends mentioned above, so going forecast looks quite good and
only minor adjustments needed to speed up onset of higher PoPs by
1-2 hours. If HRRR scenario does pan out I`m not too certain
about how much of a severe weather threat will reach our area, but
as mentioned by day shift there will likely be at least some
impact from upstream outflows that propagate east and produce
gusty winds.

Specific trends for Labor Day and Monday night...including the
potential for severe weather and heavy rain...will largely hinge on
how convection evolves across the region during the predawn hours
and into Monday morning;  specifically how long the early morning
convection lingers and where the associated outflow boundary will be
located during the afternoon.  While there is still quite a bit of
uncertainty on how the convection will evolve, it certainly appears
that outdoor plans may be altered in many areas due to the
weather.

Update will be issued as soon as 02x surface data can be ingested
and assimilated into database.

Truett

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms over southeast portions
of the CWFA should dissipate fairly quickly this evening.  Until
then, locally heavy downpours will continue over parts of the
eastern Ozarks.  Attention turns to tonight as a strong shortwave
will move from eastern Wyoming into the eastern Nebraska/northwest
Missouri.  An MCS is expected to develop ahead of it on the nose of
a 40kt low level jet over the eastern Plains.  The model consensus
keeps the vast majority of the precipitation over western/north
central Missouri tonight.  However, it does look like the leading
edge will nose into central and northeast Missouri between 08Z and
12Z.  Not sure how much of the strength of the storms by that
point.  Current thinking is that the cold pool may outrun the best
forcing causing the MCS to weaken as it moves east.  This scenario
would have the rain moving into western portions of the CWFA between
08Z and 10Z.  There may be some gusty winds as the outflow moves
through, but the most significant impact would likely be locally
heavy rain; and that looks more likely over western Missouri than in
central Missouri.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

We will see a break in what has been a hot pattern for us this past
week, as the upper level ridge breaks down, thanks to a pair of
decently strong shortwave TROFs.  Much of the energy from these
shortwaves will pass us to the north, but nevertheless, we are
expecting high probabilities of rain from both of these systems
because of either a favorable position of the low level jet or
synoptic front and a very moist, deep warm-cloud atmosphere.

The first system is expected to be ongoing early Monday morning for
areas north and west of STL metro while in a slowly weakening
state.  This rain is expected to reach the STL metro area before
dissipating or scattering out, with an anticipated boundary setup
near or just south of the I-70 corridor for new development in the
afternoon.  There is also some potential for scattered development
Monday afternoon further north and west near the synoptic front in
northern MO and central IL.

The second system on Monday night should make more of a pass to the
south and interact with the synoptic front now deeper into our
region and favorable axis of the low level jet.  In addition, there
is potential for localized heavy rainfall with PWs of around 2
inches and warm-cloud depths in excess of 4km and training storms.

The front is then expected to stall over southern MO Tuesday before
pushing north as a warm front on Wednesday with persistent, but
lesser, chances for storms.

While the humidity air never really goes away thru late week, it
should be just cool enough to prevent any dangerous heat and
humidity conditions until perhaps when the warm front pushes thru
Wednesday and into Friday.

A period of dry weather is anticipated Thursday through early Friday
with a warm-sector setup, with the next, and what looks to be much
stronger, cold front pushing thru late Friday thru early Saturday.
Increased chances for rain will return with the front with all early
indications showing a cool and dry period next weekend for most
areas.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 533 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

Could not rule out an isolated shower/storm in the St Louis metro
area until 02Z this evening, but it appears that the probability
is too low to include in the tafs. Convection developing across
eastern Nebraska and north central and northeastern KS along and just
ahead of a cold front will drop southeastward into the UIN and COU
areas late tonight, and then eventually into the St Louis metro
area Monday morning as it weakens. New convectve development is
expected late Monday afternoon mainly in COU and the St Louis
metro area between the approaching cold front and an outflow
boundary left from the late night/morning storm complex. Sely
surface winds this evening will gradually veer around to a sly
direction late tonight and a swly direction on Monday.

Specifics for KSTL: Will leave the STL taf dry this evening as
at most only isolated showers are expected until sunset. Weakening
showers and storms are expected to drop southeastward into STL
area Monday morning. There will be a break in the convection with
new development of storms expected late Monday afternoon and
evening. S-sely surface winds this evening will become sly late
tonight, then increase to around 15 kts by late Monday morning
from a swly direction.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







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