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000
FXUS63 KLSX 052358
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
558 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 325 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2016

A pair of vort maxes will approach the region tonight, spreading
extensive mid/high cloudiness over the area. The northern vort max
is the weaker of the pair and eventually phases with the southern
disturbance, although there is some model disagreement regarding how
quickly this occurs. Latest runs of the RAP point to a quicker
phasing than shown by the local WRF or NAM, and the quicker timing
looks reasonable based on recent satellite imagery and PV analyses.
Quicker phasing means that the northern disturbance won`t produce
much lift over the CWA and therefore there is much less chance of
flurries or sprinkles given the already limited moisture. Overnight
lows should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday due to extensive
cloud cover and weak WAA at low levels behind a retreating surface
high pressure center.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 325 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2016

An upper level TROF will swing thru our region dry on Saturday,
with forcing not strong enough and a column not moist enough, as the
main storm center passes well to our south, and should produce
nothing more than clouds that will decrease as the day wears on.
Otherwise, SW winds left in its wake will result in an above average
temp day, with maxes from the mid 40s to mid 50s favored, or at or
above the higher MAV MOS.

A more direct hit from a decently strong upper level disturbance
will occur late Sunday and into Sunday night, but will still be
fighting a largely dry column.  Have added low PoPs for most of our
region for light rain for Sunday afternoon, and areas south and east
of STL metro heading into Sunday evening.

This initial disturbance Sunday will also correspond to the leading
edge of a brief shot of Arctic air that will begin later Sunday
night and continue into Monday night, resulting in scattered snow
showers over much of the region.  Accums will be hard to nail down
this far out and due to the nature of the pcpn, but could see spotty
accums up to an inch from this event.  Needless to say, the leading
edge of the Arctic airmass will also be accompanied by strong gusty
northwest winds, clouds, and stagnant daytime temps on Monday as CAA
remains strong thru the day.

Models are less clear, but it appears a second clipper-like system
may drop down for the Tuesday night or Wednesday timeframe, but the
signal is not enough, especially for this type of system, to place
mentionable PoPs in the forecast just yet.

Otherwise, NW upper flow continues thru all of next week and will
leave the door open for additional cold air intrusions, one of which
is slated to drop down Thursday or Friday.

Overall a period of mainly below average temps separated briefly by
periods of above average temps, with little in the way of
precipitation.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 546 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2016

Expect dry and VFR conditions through the TAF period. High
pressure will move away from the area early tomorrow causing winds
to pick up from the southwest during the day.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect dry and VFR conditions through the TAF
period.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 052358
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
558 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 325 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2016

A pair of vort maxes will approach the region tonight, spreading
extensive mid/high cloudiness over the area. The northern vort max
is the weaker of the pair and eventually phases with the southern
disturbance, although there is some model disagreement regarding how
quickly this occurs. Latest runs of the RAP point to a quicker
phasing than shown by the local WRF or NAM, and the quicker timing
looks reasonable based on recent satellite imagery and PV analyses.
Quicker phasing means that the northern disturbance won`t produce
much lift over the CWA and therefore there is much less chance of
flurries or sprinkles given the already limited moisture. Overnight
lows should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday due to extensive
cloud cover and weak WAA at low levels behind a retreating surface
high pressure center.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 325 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2016

An upper level TROF will swing thru our region dry on Saturday,
with forcing not strong enough and a column not moist enough, as the
main storm center passes well to our south, and should produce
nothing more than clouds that will decrease as the day wears on.
Otherwise, SW winds left in its wake will result in an above average
temp day, with maxes from the mid 40s to mid 50s favored, or at or
above the higher MAV MOS.

A more direct hit from a decently strong upper level disturbance
will occur late Sunday and into Sunday night, but will still be
fighting a largely dry column.  Have added low PoPs for most of our
region for light rain for Sunday afternoon, and areas south and east
of STL metro heading into Sunday evening.

This initial disturbance Sunday will also correspond to the leading
edge of a brief shot of Arctic air that will begin later Sunday
night and continue into Monday night, resulting in scattered snow
showers over much of the region.  Accums will be hard to nail down
this far out and due to the nature of the pcpn, but could see spotty
accums up to an inch from this event.  Needless to say, the leading
edge of the Arctic airmass will also be accompanied by strong gusty
northwest winds, clouds, and stagnant daytime temps on Monday as CAA
remains strong thru the day.

Models are less clear, but it appears a second clipper-like system
may drop down for the Tuesday night or Wednesday timeframe, but the
signal is not enough, especially for this type of system, to place
mentionable PoPs in the forecast just yet.

Otherwise, NW upper flow continues thru all of next week and will
leave the door open for additional cold air intrusions, one of which
is slated to drop down Thursday or Friday.

Overall a period of mainly below average temps separated briefly by
periods of above average temps, with little in the way of
precipitation.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 546 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2016

Expect dry and VFR conditions through the TAF period. High
pressure will move away from the area early tomorrow causing winds
to pick up from the southwest during the day.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect dry and VFR conditions through the TAF
period.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 052358
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
558 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 325 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2016

A pair of vort maxes will approach the region tonight, spreading
extensive mid/high cloudiness over the area. The northern vort max
is the weaker of the pair and eventually phases with the southern
disturbance, although there is some model disagreement regarding how
quickly this occurs. Latest runs of the RAP point to a quicker
phasing than shown by the local WRF or NAM, and the quicker timing
looks reasonable based on recent satellite imagery and PV analyses.
Quicker phasing means that the northern disturbance won`t produce
much lift over the CWA and therefore there is much less chance of
flurries or sprinkles given the already limited moisture. Overnight
lows should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday due to extensive
cloud cover and weak WAA at low levels behind a retreating surface
high pressure center.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 325 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2016

An upper level TROF will swing thru our region dry on Saturday,
with forcing not strong enough and a column not moist enough, as the
main storm center passes well to our south, and should produce
nothing more than clouds that will decrease as the day wears on.
Otherwise, SW winds left in its wake will result in an above average
temp day, with maxes from the mid 40s to mid 50s favored, or at or
above the higher MAV MOS.

A more direct hit from a decently strong upper level disturbance
will occur late Sunday and into Sunday night, but will still be
fighting a largely dry column.  Have added low PoPs for most of our
region for light rain for Sunday afternoon, and areas south and east
of STL metro heading into Sunday evening.

This initial disturbance Sunday will also correspond to the leading
edge of a brief shot of Arctic air that will begin later Sunday
night and continue into Monday night, resulting in scattered snow
showers over much of the region.  Accums will be hard to nail down
this far out and due to the nature of the pcpn, but could see spotty
accums up to an inch from this event.  Needless to say, the leading
edge of the Arctic airmass will also be accompanied by strong gusty
northwest winds, clouds, and stagnant daytime temps on Monday as CAA
remains strong thru the day.

Models are less clear, but it appears a second clipper-like system
may drop down for the Tuesday night or Wednesday timeframe, but the
signal is not enough, especially for this type of system, to place
mentionable PoPs in the forecast just yet.

Otherwise, NW upper flow continues thru all of next week and will
leave the door open for additional cold air intrusions, one of which
is slated to drop down Thursday or Friday.

Overall a period of mainly below average temps separated briefly by
periods of above average temps, with little in the way of
precipitation.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 546 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2016

Expect dry and VFR conditions through the TAF period. High
pressure will move away from the area early tomorrow causing winds
to pick up from the southwest during the day.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect dry and VFR conditions through the TAF
period.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KEAX 052325
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
525 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Short Term (Tonight - Sunday):

Shortwave trough moving down into eastern NE will track southeast
and through the CWA overnight. A generous supply of mid/high clouds
will overspread the region. An area of snow which formed ahead of a
separate h7 vorticity max will advance eastward with the southern
edge skirting across the far northern tier of counties. Progged
soundings reveal the snow will be battling a very desert-like sub-
cloud airmass. So, snow amounts will be quite light. Further south
where above freezing temperatures are noted some sprinkles are
possible over west central MO. By mid/late evening most if not all
of the precipitation should have evaporated.

Otherwise, clouds will clear from west to east Saturday morning
with shortwave ridging quickly moving in across the plains. Should
see some modest warming with max temperatures well into the 40s.

Medium/Long Term (Sunday night - Friday):

Fast on the heels of Saturday`s deamplifying shortwave ridge is
a fast moving shortwave trough that will quickly amplify/deepen
Sunday night into Monday in response to a couple of upper level speed
maxima in excess of 100kt. The resulting amplified flow will tap
into a very cold airmass over northern and central Canada. Blended
forecast has trended colder and believe it may not be cold enough.
Have gone a bit below guidance for Monday min/max temperatures,
especially considering extensive stratus cloud cover and the
likelihood of flurries/snow showers.

Fortunately, the cold shot looks of short duration as temperatures
should begin to moderate by mid-week as the Canadian high pressure
moves east of the CWA. Thinking close to seasonal values by
Wednesday, then a bit of warm air advection to get us into the 40s.
After Monday night the rest of the forecast looks dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 525 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

A very weak weather system passing through the area is producing some
light precipitation over far northern Missouri, but a lot of this is
not reaching the ground. Therefore expect VFR conditions through the
night with ceilings generally above 5000 feet.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Hawblitzel




000
FXUS63 KEAX 052325
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
525 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Short Term (Tonight - Sunday):

Shortwave trough moving down into eastern NE will track southeast
and through the CWA overnight. A generous supply of mid/high clouds
will overspread the region. An area of snow which formed ahead of a
separate h7 vorticity max will advance eastward with the southern
edge skirting across the far northern tier of counties. Progged
soundings reveal the snow will be battling a very desert-like sub-
cloud airmass. So, snow amounts will be quite light. Further south
where above freezing temperatures are noted some sprinkles are
possible over west central MO. By mid/late evening most if not all
of the precipitation should have evaporated.

Otherwise, clouds will clear from west to east Saturday morning
with shortwave ridging quickly moving in across the plains. Should
see some modest warming with max temperatures well into the 40s.

Medium/Long Term (Sunday night - Friday):

Fast on the heels of Saturday`s deamplifying shortwave ridge is
a fast moving shortwave trough that will quickly amplify/deepen
Sunday night into Monday in response to a couple of upper level speed
maxima in excess of 100kt. The resulting amplified flow will tap
into a very cold airmass over northern and central Canada. Blended
forecast has trended colder and believe it may not be cold enough.
Have gone a bit below guidance for Monday min/max temperatures,
especially considering extensive stratus cloud cover and the
likelihood of flurries/snow showers.

Fortunately, the cold shot looks of short duration as temperatures
should begin to moderate by mid-week as the Canadian high pressure
moves east of the CWA. Thinking close to seasonal values by
Wednesday, then a bit of warm air advection to get us into the 40s.
After Monday night the rest of the forecast looks dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 525 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

A very weak weather system passing through the area is producing some
light precipitation over far northern Missouri, but a lot of this is
not reaching the ground. Therefore expect VFR conditions through the
night with ceilings generally above 5000 feet.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Hawblitzel



000
FXUS63 KEAX 052325
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
525 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Short Term (Tonight - Sunday):

Shortwave trough moving down into eastern NE will track southeast
and through the CWA overnight. A generous supply of mid/high clouds
will overspread the region. An area of snow which formed ahead of a
separate h7 vorticity max will advance eastward with the southern
edge skirting across the far northern tier of counties. Progged
soundings reveal the snow will be battling a very desert-like sub-
cloud airmass. So, snow amounts will be quite light. Further south
where above freezing temperatures are noted some sprinkles are
possible over west central MO. By mid/late evening most if not all
of the precipitation should have evaporated.

Otherwise, clouds will clear from west to east Saturday morning
with shortwave ridging quickly moving in across the plains. Should
see some modest warming with max temperatures well into the 40s.

Medium/Long Term (Sunday night - Friday):

Fast on the heels of Saturday`s deamplifying shortwave ridge is
a fast moving shortwave trough that will quickly amplify/deepen
Sunday night into Monday in response to a couple of upper level speed
maxima in excess of 100kt. The resulting amplified flow will tap
into a very cold airmass over northern and central Canada. Blended
forecast has trended colder and believe it may not be cold enough.
Have gone a bit below guidance for Monday min/max temperatures,
especially considering extensive stratus cloud cover and the
likelihood of flurries/snow showers.

Fortunately, the cold shot looks of short duration as temperatures
should begin to moderate by mid-week as the Canadian high pressure
moves east of the CWA. Thinking close to seasonal values by
Wednesday, then a bit of warm air advection to get us into the 40s.
After Monday night the rest of the forecast looks dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 525 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

A very weak weather system passing through the area is producing some
light precipitation over far northern Missouri, but a lot of this is
not reaching the ground. Therefore expect VFR conditions through the
night with ceilings generally above 5000 feet.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Hawblitzel



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KSGF 052314
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
514 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 0225 PM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

In the near term, fire weather is a modest concern. RH values have
again fallen to into the 20s with a few modest wind gusts of
15kts/15-20 mph at times over southern MO. Winds will die down
toward sunset.

Mid/high level clouds will increase with a shortwave passage
tonight. Then it looks quiet for Saturday, but continued dry.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 0225 PM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

Another more substantial system and cold front will move through
on Sunday. Initially fire weather will be a concern with
increasing and shifting sfc winds and continued low afternoon RH
values.

Much colder air with windy weather is expected Monday with
clouds/flurries on the backside of a closed upper low moving from
the Midwest into the OH Vly.

A western CONUS ridge and eastern trough will keep our area in a
dry upper level nw flow pattern for much of next week. We expect
a couple of frontal passages/wind shifts next week with clouds at
times. A cold start will moderate as the heart of the cold air
mass shifts off to the east. High temperatures in the 50s are
expected Thu and looks to be the warmest day for the work week
next week with a modest cool down for Fri.

Fire weather will continue to be a concern at times with dry
fuels and little in the way of meaningful precip. The RH/wind
combo in the fcst doesn`t reach warning criteria, but any day
with gusty winds will at least reach the elevated category.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Weak southerly breezes are expected overnight as high clouds
stream over the region.

A cold front will approach the Ozarks on Saturday, and create a
wind shift to the west during the morning hours.

Otherwise, no low ceilings or obstructions to visibility are
expected at this time.

Safe travels.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Cramer



000
FXUS63 KSGF 052314
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
514 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 0225 PM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

In the near term, fire weather is a modest concern. RH values have
again fallen to into the 20s with a few modest wind gusts of
15kts/15-20 mph at times over southern MO. Winds will die down
toward sunset.

Mid/high level clouds will increase with a shortwave passage
tonight. Then it looks quiet for Saturday, but continued dry.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 0225 PM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

Another more substantial system and cold front will move through
on Sunday. Initially fire weather will be a concern with
increasing and shifting sfc winds and continued low afternoon RH
values.

Much colder air with windy weather is expected Monday with
clouds/flurries on the backside of a closed upper low moving from
the Midwest into the OH Vly.

A western CONUS ridge and eastern trough will keep our area in a
dry upper level nw flow pattern for much of next week. We expect
a couple of frontal passages/wind shifts next week with clouds at
times. A cold start will moderate as the heart of the cold air
mass shifts off to the east. High temperatures in the 50s are
expected Thu and looks to be the warmest day for the work week
next week with a modest cool down for Fri.

Fire weather will continue to be a concern at times with dry
fuels and little in the way of meaningful precip. The RH/wind
combo in the fcst doesn`t reach warning criteria, but any day
with gusty winds will at least reach the elevated category.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Weak southerly breezes are expected overnight as high clouds
stream over the region.

A cold front will approach the Ozarks on Saturday, and create a
wind shift to the west during the morning hours.

Otherwise, no low ceilings or obstructions to visibility are
expected at this time.

Safe travels.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Cramer




000
FXUS63 KSGF 052314
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
514 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 0225 PM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

In the near term, fire weather is a modest concern. RH values have
again fallen to into the 20s with a few modest wind gusts of
15kts/15-20 mph at times over southern MO. Winds will die down
toward sunset.

Mid/high level clouds will increase with a shortwave passage
tonight. Then it looks quiet for Saturday, but continued dry.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 0225 PM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

Another more substantial system and cold front will move through
on Sunday. Initially fire weather will be a concern with
increasing and shifting sfc winds and continued low afternoon RH
values.

Much colder air with windy weather is expected Monday with
clouds/flurries on the backside of a closed upper low moving from
the Midwest into the OH Vly.

A western CONUS ridge and eastern trough will keep our area in a
dry upper level nw flow pattern for much of next week. We expect
a couple of frontal passages/wind shifts next week with clouds at
times. A cold start will moderate as the heart of the cold air
mass shifts off to the east. High temperatures in the 50s are
expected Thu and looks to be the warmest day for the work week
next week with a modest cool down for Fri.

Fire weather will continue to be a concern at times with dry
fuels and little in the way of meaningful precip. The RH/wind
combo in the fcst doesn`t reach warning criteria, but any day
with gusty winds will at least reach the elevated category.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Weak southerly breezes are expected overnight as high clouds
stream over the region.

A cold front will approach the Ozarks on Saturday, and create a
wind shift to the west during the morning hours.

Otherwise, no low ceilings or obstructions to visibility are
expected at this time.

Safe travels.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Cramer




000
FXUS63 KEAX 052201
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
401 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Short Term (Tonight - Sunday):

Shortwave trough moving down into eastern NE will track southeast
and through the CWA overnight. A generous supply of mid/high clouds
will overspread the region. An area of snow which formed ahead of a
separate h7 vorticity max will advance eastward with the southern
edge skirting across the far northern tier of counties. Progged
soundings reveal the snow will be battling a very desert-like sub-
cloud airmass. So, snow amounts will be quite light. Further south
where above freezing temperatures are noted some sprinkles are
possible over west central MO. By mid/late evening most if not all
of the precipitation should have evaporated.

Otherwise, clouds will clear from west to east Saturday morning
with shortwave ridging quickly moving in across the plains. Should
see some modest warming with max temperatures well into the 40s.

Medium/Long Term (Sunday night - Friday):

Fast on the heels of Saturday`s deamplifying shortwave ridge is
a fast moving shortwave trough that will quickly amplify/deepen
Sunday night into Monday in response to a couple of upper level speed
maxima in excess of 100kt. The resulting amplified flow will tap
into a very cold airmass over northern and central Canada. Blended
forecast has trended colder and believe it may not be cold enough.
Have gone a bit below guidance for Monday min/max temperatures,
especially considering extensive stratus cloud cover and the
likelihood of flurries/snow showers.

Fortunately, the cold shot looks of short duration as temperatures
should begin to moderate by mid-week as the Canadian high pressure
moves east of the CWA. Thinking close to seasonal values by
Wednesday, then a bit of warm air advection to get us into the 40s.
After Monday night the rest of the forecast looks dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Southern edge of area of snow over southeast NE/western IA continues
to erode as it moves east. Think this trend will continue as the band
moves across far northwest and north central MO this afternoon.
Little if any snow accumulation expected. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will continue as a weak wind shift line passes across western MO late
this evening. Could see some sprinkles/flurries near this boundary
but again no accumulations expected.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ



000
FXUS63 KEAX 052201
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
401 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Short Term (Tonight - Sunday):

Shortwave trough moving down into eastern NE will track southeast
and through the CWA overnight. A generous supply of mid/high clouds
will overspread the region. An area of snow which formed ahead of a
separate h7 vorticity max will advance eastward with the southern
edge skirting across the far northern tier of counties. Progged
soundings reveal the snow will be battling a very desert-like sub-
cloud airmass. So, snow amounts will be quite light. Further south
where above freezing temperatures are noted some sprinkles are
possible over west central MO. By mid/late evening most if not all
of the precipitation should have evaporated.

Otherwise, clouds will clear from west to east Saturday morning
with shortwave ridging quickly moving in across the plains. Should
see some modest warming with max temperatures well into the 40s.

Medium/Long Term (Sunday night - Friday):

Fast on the heels of Saturday`s deamplifying shortwave ridge is
a fast moving shortwave trough that will quickly amplify/deepen
Sunday night into Monday in response to a couple of upper level speed
maxima in excess of 100kt. The resulting amplified flow will tap
into a very cold airmass over northern and central Canada. Blended
forecast has trended colder and believe it may not be cold enough.
Have gone a bit below guidance for Monday min/max temperatures,
especially considering extensive stratus cloud cover and the
likelihood of flurries/snow showers.

Fortunately, the cold shot looks of short duration as temperatures
should begin to moderate by mid-week as the Canadian high pressure
moves east of the CWA. Thinking close to seasonal values by
Wednesday, then a bit of warm air advection to get us into the 40s.
After Monday night the rest of the forecast looks dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Southern edge of area of snow over southeast NE/western IA continues
to erode as it moves east. Think this trend will continue as the band
moves across far northwest and north central MO this afternoon.
Little if any snow accumulation expected. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will continue as a weak wind shift line passes across western MO late
this evening. Could see some sprinkles/flurries near this boundary
but again no accumulations expected.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KLSX 052125
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
325 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 325 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2016

A pair of vort maxes will approach the region tonight, spreading
extensive mid/high cloudiness over the area. The northern vort max
is the weaker of the pair and eventually phases with the southern
disturbance, although there is some model disagreement regarding how
quickly this occurs. Latest runs of the RAP point to a quicker
phasing than shown by the local WRF or NAM, and the quicker timing
looks reasonable based on recent satellite imagery and PV analyses.
Quicker phasing means that the northern disturbance won`t produce
much lift over the CWA and therefore there is much less chance of
flurries or sprinkles given the already limited moisture. Overnight
lows should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday due to extensive
cloud cover and weak WAA at low levels behind a retreating surface
high pressure center.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 325 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2016

An upper level TROF will swing thru our region dry on Saturday,
with forcing not strong enough and a column not moist enough, as the
main storm center passes well to our south, and should produce
nothing more than clouds that will decrease as the day wears on.
Otherwise, SW winds left in its wake will result in an above average
temp day, with maxes from the mid 40s to mid 50s favored, or at or
above the higher MAV MOS.

A more direct hit from a decently strong upper level disturbance
will occur late Sunday and into Sunday night, but will still be
fighting a largely dry column.  Have added low PoPs for most of our
region for light rain for Sunday afternoon, and areas south and east
of STL metro heading into Sunday evening.

This initial disturbance Sunday will also correspond to the leading
edge of a brief shot of Arctic air that will begin later Sunday
night and continue into Monday night, resulting in scattered snow
showers over much of the region.  Accums will be hard to nail down
this far out and due to the nature of the pcpn, but could see spotty
accums up to an inch from this event.  Needless to say, the leading
edge of the Arctic airmass will also be accompanied by strong gusty
northwest winds, clouds, and stagnant daytime temps on Monday as CAA
remains strong thru the day.

Models are less clear, but it appears a second clipper-like system
may drop down for the Tuesday night or Wednesday timeframe, but the
signal is not enough, especially for this type of system, to place
mentionable PoPs in the forecast just yet.

Otherwise, NW upper flow continues thru all of next week and will
leave the door open for additional cold air intrusions, one of which
is slated to drop down Thursday or Friday.

Overall a period of mainly below average temps separated briefly by
periods of above average temps, with little in the way of
precipitation.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1108 AM CST Fri Feb 5 2016

VFR through the period with increasing mid/high clouds. Initially
lgt/var winds will become southwesterly on Saturday morning due
to the approach and passage of a surface trough after 06/12z.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 052125
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
325 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 325 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2016

A pair of vort maxes will approach the region tonight, spreading
extensive mid/high cloudiness over the area. The northern vort max
is the weaker of the pair and eventually phases with the southern
disturbance, although there is some model disagreement regarding how
quickly this occurs. Latest runs of the RAP point to a quicker
phasing than shown by the local WRF or NAM, and the quicker timing
looks reasonable based on recent satellite imagery and PV analyses.
Quicker phasing means that the northern disturbance won`t produce
much lift over the CWA and therefore there is much less chance of
flurries or sprinkles given the already limited moisture. Overnight
lows should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday due to extensive
cloud cover and weak WAA at low levels behind a retreating surface
high pressure center.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 325 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2016

An upper level TROF will swing thru our region dry on Saturday,
with forcing not strong enough and a column not moist enough, as the
main storm center passes well to our south, and should produce
nothing more than clouds that will decrease as the day wears on.
Otherwise, SW winds left in its wake will result in an above average
temp day, with maxes from the mid 40s to mid 50s favored, or at or
above the higher MAV MOS.

A more direct hit from a decently strong upper level disturbance
will occur late Sunday and into Sunday night, but will still be
fighting a largely dry column.  Have added low PoPs for most of our
region for light rain for Sunday afternoon, and areas south and east
of STL metro heading into Sunday evening.

This initial disturbance Sunday will also correspond to the leading
edge of a brief shot of Arctic air that will begin later Sunday
night and continue into Monday night, resulting in scattered snow
showers over much of the region.  Accums will be hard to nail down
this far out and due to the nature of the pcpn, but could see spotty
accums up to an inch from this event.  Needless to say, the leading
edge of the Arctic airmass will also be accompanied by strong gusty
northwest winds, clouds, and stagnant daytime temps on Monday as CAA
remains strong thru the day.

Models are less clear, but it appears a second clipper-like system
may drop down for the Tuesday night or Wednesday timeframe, but the
signal is not enough, especially for this type of system, to place
mentionable PoPs in the forecast just yet.

Otherwise, NW upper flow continues thru all of next week and will
leave the door open for additional cold air intrusions, one of which
is slated to drop down Thursday or Friday.

Overall a period of mainly below average temps separated briefly by
periods of above average temps, with little in the way of
precipitation.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1108 AM CST Fri Feb 5 2016

VFR through the period with increasing mid/high clouds. Initially
lgt/var winds will become southwesterly on Saturday morning due
to the approach and passage of a surface trough after 06/12z.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KSGF 052100
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
300 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 0225 PM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

In the near term, fire weather is a modest concern. RH values have
again fallen to into the 20s with a few modest wind gusts of
15kts/15-20 mph at times over southern MO. Winds will die down
toward sunset.

Mid/high level clouds will increase with a shortwave passage
tonight. Then it looks quiet for Saturday, but continued dry.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 0225 PM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

Another more substantial system and cold front will move through
on Sunday. Initially fire weather will be a concern with
increasing and shifting sfc winds and continued low afternoon RH
values.

Much colder air with windy weather is expected Monday with
clouds/flurries on the backside of a closed upper low moving from
the Midwest into the OH Vly.

A western CONUS ridge and eastern trough will keep our area in a
dry upper level nw flow pattern for much of next week. We expect
a couple of frontal passages/wind shifts next week with clouds at
times. A cold start will moderate as the heart of the cold air
mass shifts off to the east. High temperatures in the 50s are
expected Thu and looks to be the warmest day for the work week
next week with a modest cool down for Fri.

Fire weather will continue to be a concern at times with dry
fuels and little in the way of meaningful precip. The RH/wind
combo in the fcst doesn`t reach warning criteria, but any day
with gusty winds will at least reach the elevated category.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. A weak
disturbance will produce abundant mid/upper level clouds at times.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...DSA




000
FXUS63 KSGF 052056
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
256 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 0225 PM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

In the near term, fire weather is a modest concern. RH values have
again fallen to into the 20s with a few modest wind gusts of
15kts/15-20 mph at times over southern MO. Winds will die down
toward sunset.

Mid/high level clouds will increase with a shortwave passage
tonight. Then it looks quiet for Saturday, but continued dry.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 0225 PM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

Another more substantial system and cold front will move through
on Sunday. Initially fire weather will be a concern with
increases and shifting sfc winds and continued low afternoon RH
values.

Much colder air with windy weather is expected Monday with
clouds/flurries on the backside of a closed upper low moving from
the Midwest into the OH Vly.

A western CONUS ridge and eastern trough will keep our area in a
dry upper level nw flow pattern for much of next week. We expect
a couple of frontal passages/wind shifts next week with clouds at
times. A cold start will moderate as the heart of the cold air
mass shifts off to the east. High temperatures in the 50s are
expected Thu and looks to be the warmest day fr the work week next
week with a modest cool down for Fri.

Fire weather will continue to be a concern at times with dry
fuels and little in the way of meaningful precip. The RH/wind
combo in the fcst is doesn`t reach warning criteria, but any day
with gusty winds will at least reach the elevated category.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. A weak
disturbance will produce abundant mid/upper level clouds at times.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...DSA




000
FXUS63 KSGF 052055
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
255 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 0225 PM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

In the near term, fire weather is a modest concern. RH values have
again fallen to into the 20s with a few modeste wind gusts of
15kts/15-20 mph at times over southern MO. Winds will die down
toward sunset.

Mid/high level clouds will increase with a shortwave passage
tonight. Then it looks quiet for Saturday, but continued dry.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 0225 PM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

Another more substantial system and cold fornt will move through
on Sunday. Initally fire weather will be a concern with increases
and shifting sfc winds and continued low afternoon RH values.

Much colder air with windy weather is expected Monday with
clouds/flurries on the backside of a closed upper low moving fom
the Midwest into the OH Vly.

A western CONUS ridge and eastern trough will keep our area in a
dry upper level nw flow pattern for much of next week. We expect
a couple of frontal passages/wind shifts next week with clouds at
times. A cold start will moderate as the heart of the cold air
mass shifts off to the east. High temperatures in the 50s are
expected Thu and looks to be the warmest day fr the work week next
week with a modest cool down for Fri.

Fire weather will continue to be a concern at times with dry
fuels and little in the way of meaningful precip. The RH/wind
combo in the fcst is doesn`t reach warning criteria, but any day
with gusty winds will at least reach the elevated category.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. A weak
disturbance will produce abundant mid/upper level clouds at times.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...DSA




000
FXUS63 KEAX 051818
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1218 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

12z NAM initialized a stronger vorticity max over south central NE
than shown in earlier progs. RAP is a bit weaker. Both models track
the feature east this morning/afternoon. Area of light snow tied to
this feature will be moving into a rather dry airmass as noted by the
dirt-dry sub-cloud region on the 12z TOP raob. Latest short-range
models are more bullish in keeping this area of snow intact, albeit
diminishing it as it moves into far northwest MO. NAM also showing
moderate moist isentropic ascent on the 280-285K surfaces. Will add
chance PoPs to far northwest MO for this afternoon with slight
chances spreading across the northern two tier of counties. Will
monitor radar trends and if the snow holds together better than
anticipated will look to raise PoPs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Very little change to the going forecast philosophy, with overall
quiet weather on the horizon. Two shortwave troughs will be featured
over the next few days, but with limited moisture, little in the way
of sensible weather will be noted for the area. Mid/high clouds will
steadily increase during the day with readings warming into the
middle 30s to middle 40s. The first disturbance arrives overnight
and besides the increase in cloud cover, a few sprinkles cannot be
completely ruled out. Downglide quickly clears out cloud cover as
system departs on Saturday, with a continued mild weekend on tap for
the weekend. The second disturbance arrives Sunday/Monday, with
slightly more notable weather. A strengthening pressure gradient
will allow for gusty northwesterly winds on Sunday. Enough dynamics
and low-level moisture may allow for light precipitation in the
form of snow over the eastern two-thirds of the CWA. Much colder air
will advect into the area as the pattern becomes much more amplified
heading into early next week before readings gradually moderate to
near normal levels by the middle of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Southern edge of area of snow over southeast NE/western IA continues
to erode as it moves east. Think this trend will continue as the band
moves across far northwest and north central MO this afternoon.
Little if any snow accumulation expected. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will continue as a weak wind shift line passes across western MO late
this evening. Could see some sprinkles/flurries near this boundary
but again no accumulations expected.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KSGF 051732
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
1132 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0231 AM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

High clouds are on the increase this morning from west to east as
the next upper level wave is moving across the High Plains region.
This disturbance will move southeastward today and tonight. We
will only see mid and high level cloudiness from this moisture
starved system. Will not rule out a few sprinkles or flurries
possible tonight across the far southwest corner of the area
including portions of southeast Kansas. There should not be any
impacts if this occurs.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 0231 AM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

The weekend is not look too bad with mostly sunny to partly cloudy
skies and high temperatures slightly above average. Dry weather is
expected through Sunday evening. Will need to watch Sunday
afternoon for an elevated fire danger across southeast Kansas and
portions of western Missouri. Winds will become breezy and gusty
with a relatively dry airmass in place.

A deep trough will build across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
region by Monday and Tuesday. A strong cold front will move
through late Sunday night into Monday morning. Clouds and a few
sprinkles or flurries may accompany the front. The main core of
the cold airmass will be just to our east across the Ohio River
Valley region. Models indicate a cold and windy day across the
Missouri Ozarks on Monday with scattered snow flurries or very
light snow showers. At this time...not expecting any accumulations
or impacts but it will be a reminder that Winter is still around.
Wind chills may drop down into the teens and single digits early
next week.

The deep trough lifts out of the region and somewhat flatten flow
returns for middle of next week. Temperatures will rebound back to
more seasonable levels with dry weather. There is no significant
or measurable precip in the forecast over the next 7 days for the
local area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. A weak
disturbance will produce abundant mid/upper level clouds at times.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...DSA




000
FXUS63 KLSX 051716
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1116 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Feb 5 2016

A weak cold front stretched from western IL through east-central
MO early this morning. This front will pass through the remainder
of the CWA by midday with weak high pressure settling into the
area in its wake, and high clouds ahead of the Rockies upper trof
spreading into the MS Valley. Not a loft of cooling with this
system, and highs should be quite seasonable and just a bit above
average for early Feb. Warm advection will commence this evening
in the wake of the migratory high pressure system and ahead of the
elongated positively tilted upper trof moving into the central
U.S. While there will be a good deal of clouds accompanying the
trof, the region currently looks to be void of precipitation.
Forcing/ascent remain well to the south associated with a
prominent vort max within the southern portion of the upper trof.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Feb 5 2016

Lots of change underway during this period as the aforementioned
upper trof shifts east and the warm advection regime persists
Saturday, Saturday night, and into early Sunday resulting in above
normal temperatures.

Winter cold however returns late Sunday. An oceanic low in the
Pacific currently near 36N/170W will deepen as it moves northeastward
towards the Gulf of AK over the next 72h. This will result in
tremendous downstream amplification by Monday, with a high
amplitude trof evolving over the western U.S. and a broad deep
trof east of the Rockies. Large height falls will occur on Sunday
into Sunday evening thru the MS Valley as the lead upper trof digs
southeastward and deepens. The attendant initial cold front/trof
on Sunday will bring a southwest to west wind shift, with most of
the early cooling coming aloft. However a secondary cold
front/surge on Sunday night will be accompanied by gusty northwest
winds, strong CAA, and a threat of light snow. Cloudy and blusteryconditions
are expected on Monday with a continued threat of light snow.
Below normal cold will then persist into Tuesday and Wednesday as
the deep upper trof dominates the eastern 2/3rds of the Nation.

Present indications are that we will see height rises aloft after
Wednesday as the flow deamplifies with the trofing aloft becoming
quite broad anchored by a vortex near Hudson Bay. This should
result in a return to above average temperatures by the end of
next week.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1108 AM CST Fri Feb 5 2016

VFR through the period with increasing mid/high clouds. Initially
lgt/var winds will become southwesterly on Saturday morning due
to the approach and passage of a surface trough after 06/12z.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KEAX 051547
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
947 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

12z NAM initialized a stronger vorticity max over south central NE
than shown in earlier progs. RAP is a bit weaker. Both models track
the feature east this morning/afternoon. Area of light snow tied to
this feature will be moving into a rather dry airmass as noted by the
dirt-dry sub-cloud region on the 12z TOP raob. Latest short-range
models are more bullish in keeping this area of snow intact, albiet
diminishing it as it moves into far northwest MO. NAM also showing
moderate moist isentropic ascent on the 280-285K surfaces. Will add
chance PoPs to far northwest MO for this afternoon with sligth
chances spreading across the northern two tier of counties. Will
monitor radar trends and if the snow holds together better than
anticipated will look to raise PoPs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Very little change to the going forecast philosophy, with overall
quiet weather on the horizon. Two shortwave troughs will be featured
over the next few days, but with limited moisture, little in the way
of sensible weather will be noted for the area. Mid/high clouds will
steadily increase during the day with readings warming into the
middle 30s to middle 40s. The first disturbance arrives overnight
and besides the increase in cloud cover, a few sprinkles cannot be
completely ruled out. Downglide quickly clears out cloud cover as
system departs on Saturday, with a continued mild weekend on tap for
the weekend. The second disturbance arrives Sunday/Monday, with
slightly more notable weather. A strengthening pressure gradient
will allow for gusty northwesterly winds on Sunday. Enough dynamics
and low-level moisture may allow for light precipitation in the
form of snow over the eastern two-thirds of the CWA. Much colder air
will advect into the area as the pattern becomes much more amplified
heading into early next week before readings gradually moderate to
near normal levels by the middle of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 537 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR conditions are expected through much of the period with a gradual
lowering of high to mid level cloudiness throughout the day. Main
concern is potential for MVFR/IFR window between 09-13Z Saturday
with either scattered stratus and/or drizzle. Have not included into
forecast with high uncertainy and being end of the period, but will
need to be closely monitored.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair




000
FXUS63 KSGF 051229
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
629 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0231 AM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

High clouds are on the increase this morning from west to east as
the next upper level wave is moving across the High Plains region.
This disturbance will move southeastward today and tonight. We
will only see mid and high level cloudiness from this moisture
starved system. Will not rule out a few sprinkles or flurries
possible tonight across the far southwest corner of the area
including portions of southeast Kansas. There should not be any
impacts if this occurs.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 0231 AM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

The weekend is not look too bad with mostly sunny to partly cloudy
skies and high temperatures slightly above average. Dry weather is
expected through Sunday evening. Will need to watch Sunday
afternoon for an elevated fire danger across southeast Kansas and
portions of western Missouri. Winds will become breezy and gusty
with a relatively dry airmass in place.

A deep trough will build across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
region by Monday and Tuesday. A strong cold front will move
through late Sunday night into Monday morning. Clouds and a few
sprinkles or flurries may accompany the front. The main core of
the cold airmass will be just to our east across the Ohio River
Valley region. Models indicate a cold and windy day across the
Missouri Ozarks on Monday with scattered snow flurries or very
light snow showers. At this time...not expecting any accumulations
or impacts but it will be a reminder that Winter is still around.
Wind chills may drop down into the teens and single digits early
next week.

The deep trough lifts out of the region and somewhat flatten flow
returns for middle of next week. Temperatures will rebound back to
more seasonable levels with dry weather. There is no significant
or measurable precip in the forecast over the next 7 days for the
local area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 0613 AM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals today and
tonight. A passing upper level disturbance will bring high cirrus
clouds across the region. Surface winds will be relatively light.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster




000
FXUS63 KSGF 051229
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
629 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0231 AM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

High clouds are on the increase this morning from west to east as
the next upper level wave is moving across the High Plains region.
This disturbance will move southeastward today and tonight. We
will only see mid and high level cloudiness from this moisture
starved system. Will not rule out a few sprinkles or flurries
possible tonight across the far southwest corner of the area
including portions of southeast Kansas. There should not be any
impacts if this occurs.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 0231 AM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

The weekend is not look too bad with mostly sunny to partly cloudy
skies and high temperatures slightly above average. Dry weather is
expected through Sunday evening. Will need to watch Sunday
afternoon for an elevated fire danger across southeast Kansas and
portions of western Missouri. Winds will become breezy and gusty
with a relatively dry airmass in place.

A deep trough will build across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
region by Monday and Tuesday. A strong cold front will move
through late Sunday night into Monday morning. Clouds and a few
sprinkles or flurries may accompany the front. The main core of
the cold airmass will be just to our east across the Ohio River
Valley region. Models indicate a cold and windy day across the
Missouri Ozarks on Monday with scattered snow flurries or very
light snow showers. At this time...not expecting any accumulations
or impacts but it will be a reminder that Winter is still around.
Wind chills may drop down into the teens and single digits early
next week.

The deep trough lifts out of the region and somewhat flatten flow
returns for middle of next week. Temperatures will rebound back to
more seasonable levels with dry weather. There is no significant
or measurable precip in the forecast over the next 7 days for the
local area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 0613 AM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals today and
tonight. A passing upper level disturbance will bring high cirrus
clouds across the region. Surface winds will be relatively light.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster




000
FXUS63 KSGF 051229
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
629 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0231 AM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

High clouds are on the increase this morning from west to east as
the next upper level wave is moving across the High Plains region.
This disturbance will move southeastward today and tonight. We
will only see mid and high level cloudiness from this moisture
starved system. Will not rule out a few sprinkles or flurries
possible tonight across the far southwest corner of the area
including portions of southeast Kansas. There should not be any
impacts if this occurs.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 0231 AM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

The weekend is not look too bad with mostly sunny to partly cloudy
skies and high temperatures slightly above average. Dry weather is
expected through Sunday evening. Will need to watch Sunday
afternoon for an elevated fire danger across southeast Kansas and
portions of western Missouri. Winds will become breezy and gusty
with a relatively dry airmass in place.

A deep trough will build across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
region by Monday and Tuesday. A strong cold front will move
through late Sunday night into Monday morning. Clouds and a few
sprinkles or flurries may accompany the front. The main core of
the cold airmass will be just to our east across the Ohio River
Valley region. Models indicate a cold and windy day across the
Missouri Ozarks on Monday with scattered snow flurries or very
light snow showers. At this time...not expecting any accumulations
or impacts but it will be a reminder that Winter is still around.
Wind chills may drop down into the teens and single digits early
next week.

The deep trough lifts out of the region and somewhat flatten flow
returns for middle of next week. Temperatures will rebound back to
more seasonable levels with dry weather. There is no significant
or measurable precip in the forecast over the next 7 days for the
local area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 0613 AM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals today and
tonight. A passing upper level disturbance will bring high cirrus
clouds across the region. Surface winds will be relatively light.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster




000
FXUS63 KSGF 051229
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
629 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0231 AM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

High clouds are on the increase this morning from west to east as
the next upper level wave is moving across the High Plains region.
This disturbance will move southeastward today and tonight. We
will only see mid and high level cloudiness from this moisture
starved system. Will not rule out a few sprinkles or flurries
possible tonight across the far southwest corner of the area
including portions of southeast Kansas. There should not be any
impacts if this occurs.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 0231 AM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

The weekend is not look too bad with mostly sunny to partly cloudy
skies and high temperatures slightly above average. Dry weather is
expected through Sunday evening. Will need to watch Sunday
afternoon for an elevated fire danger across southeast Kansas and
portions of western Missouri. Winds will become breezy and gusty
with a relatively dry airmass in place.

A deep trough will build across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
region by Monday and Tuesday. A strong cold front will move
through late Sunday night into Monday morning. Clouds and a few
sprinkles or flurries may accompany the front. The main core of
the cold airmass will be just to our east across the Ohio River
Valley region. Models indicate a cold and windy day across the
Missouri Ozarks on Monday with scattered snow flurries or very
light snow showers. At this time...not expecting any accumulations
or impacts but it will be a reminder that Winter is still around.
Wind chills may drop down into the teens and single digits early
next week.

The deep trough lifts out of the region and somewhat flatten flow
returns for middle of next week. Temperatures will rebound back to
more seasonable levels with dry weather. There is no significant
or measurable precip in the forecast over the next 7 days for the
local area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 0613 AM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals today and
tonight. A passing upper level disturbance will bring high cirrus
clouds across the region. Surface winds will be relatively light.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster




000
FXUS63 KSGF 051229
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
629 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0231 AM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

High clouds are on the increase this morning from west to east as
the next upper level wave is moving across the High Plains region.
This disturbance will move southeastward today and tonight. We
will only see mid and high level cloudiness from this moisture
starved system. Will not rule out a few sprinkles or flurries
possible tonight across the far southwest corner of the area
including portions of southeast Kansas. There should not be any
impacts if this occurs.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 0231 AM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

The weekend is not look too bad with mostly sunny to partly cloudy
skies and high temperatures slightly above average. Dry weather is
expected through Sunday evening. Will need to watch Sunday
afternoon for an elevated fire danger across southeast Kansas and
portions of western Missouri. Winds will become breezy and gusty
with a relatively dry airmass in place.

A deep trough will build across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
region by Monday and Tuesday. A strong cold front will move
through late Sunday night into Monday morning. Clouds and a few
sprinkles or flurries may accompany the front. The main core of
the cold airmass will be just to our east across the Ohio River
Valley region. Models indicate a cold and windy day across the
Missouri Ozarks on Monday with scattered snow flurries or very
light snow showers. At this time...not expecting any accumulations
or impacts but it will be a reminder that Winter is still around.
Wind chills may drop down into the teens and single digits early
next week.

The deep trough lifts out of the region and somewhat flatten flow
returns for middle of next week. Temperatures will rebound back to
more seasonable levels with dry weather. There is no significant
or measurable precip in the forecast over the next 7 days for the
local area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 0613 AM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals today and
tonight. A passing upper level disturbance will bring high cirrus
clouds across the region. Surface winds will be relatively light.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster




000
FXUS63 KEAX 051148
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
548 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Very little change to the going forecast philosophy, with overall
quiet weather on the horizon. Two shortwave troughs will be featured
over the next few days, but with limited moisture, little in the way
of sensible weather will be noted for the area. Mid/high clouds will
steadily increase during the day with readings warming into the
middle 30s to middle 40s. The first disturbance arrives overnight
and besides the increase in cloud cover, a few sprinkles cannot be
completely ruled out. Downglide quickly clears out cloud cover as
system departs on Saturday, with a continued mild weekend on tap for
the weekend. The second disturbance arrives Sunday/Monday, with
slightly more notable weather. A strengthening pressure gradient
will allow for gusty northwesterly winds on Sunday. Enough dynamics
and low-level moisture may allow for light precipitation in the
form of snow over the eastern two-thirds of the CWA. Much colder air
will advect into the area as the pattern becomes much more amplified
heading into early next week before readings gradually moderate to
near normal levels by the middle of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 537 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR conditions are expected through much of the period with a gradual
lowering of high to mid level cloudiness throughout the day. Main
concern is potential for MVFR/IFR window between 09-13Z Saturday
with either scattered stratus and/or drizzle. Have not included into
forecast with high uncertainy and being end of the period, but will
need to be closely monitored.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair




000
FXUS63 KEAX 051148
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
548 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Very little change to the going forecast philosophy, with overall
quiet weather on the horizon. Two shortwave troughs will be featured
over the next few days, but with limited moisture, little in the way
of sensible weather will be noted for the area. Mid/high clouds will
steadily increase during the day with readings warming into the
middle 30s to middle 40s. The first disturbance arrives overnight
and besides the increase in cloud cover, a few sprinkles cannot be
completely ruled out. Downglide quickly clears out cloud cover as
system departs on Saturday, with a continued mild weekend on tap for
the weekend. The second disturbance arrives Sunday/Monday, with
slightly more notable weather. A strengthening pressure gradient
will allow for gusty northwesterly winds on Sunday. Enough dynamics
and low-level moisture may allow for light precipitation in the
form of snow over the eastern two-thirds of the CWA. Much colder air
will advect into the area as the pattern becomes much more amplified
heading into early next week before readings gradually moderate to
near normal levels by the middle of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 537 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR conditions are expected through much of the period with a gradual
lowering of high to mid level cloudiness throughout the day. Main
concern is potential for MVFR/IFR window between 09-13Z Saturday
with either scattered stratus and/or drizzle. Have not included into
forecast with high uncertainy and being end of the period, but will
need to be closely monitored.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair




000
FXUS63 KLSX 051050
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
450 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Feb 5 2016

A weak cold front stretched from western IL through east-central
MO early this morning. This front will pass through the remainder
of the CWA by midday with weak high pressure settling into the
area in its wake, and high clouds ahead of the Rockies upper trof
spreading into the MS Valley. Not alot of cooling with this system,
and highs should be quite seasonable and just a bit above average
for early Feb. Warm advection will commence this evening in the
wake of the migratory high pressure system and ahead of the
elongated postively tilted upper trof moving into the central U.S.
While there will be a good deal of clouds accompanying the trof,
the region currently looks to be void of precipitation.
Forcing/ascent remain well to the south associated with a
prominent vort max within the southern portion of the upper trof.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Feb 5 2016

Lots of change underway during this period as the aforementioned
upper trof shifts east and the warm advection regime persists
Saturday, Saturday night, and into early Sunday resulting in above
normal temperatures.

Winter cold however returns late Sunday. An oceanic low in the
Pacific currently near 36N/170W will deepen as it moves northeastward
towards the Gulf of AK over the next 72h. This will result in
tremendous downstream amplification by Monday, with a high
amplitude trof evolving over the western U.S. and a broad deep
trof east of the Rockies. Large height falls will occur on Sunday
into Sunday evening thru the MS Valley as the lead upper trof digs
southeastward and deepens. The attendant initial cold front/trof
on Sunday will bring a southwest to west wind shift, with most of
the early cooling coming aloft. However a secondary cold
front/surge on Sunday night will be accompanied by gusty northwest
winds, strong CAA, and a threat of light snow. Cloudy and blustry
conditions are expected on Monday with a continued threat of light
snow. Below normal cold will then persist into Tuesday and
Wednesday as the deep upper trof dominates the eastern 2/3rds of
the Nation.

Present indications are that we will see height rises aloft after
Wednesday as the flow deamplfies with the trofing aloft becoming
quite broad anchored by a vortex near Hudson Bay. This should
result in a return to above average temperatures by the end of
next week.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 441 AM CST Fri Feb 5 2016

Weak cold front will move through the area today providing a light
northwest wind and high level cloudiness. High pressure will
build in today in the relatively fast northwest flow pattern. The
high quickly will move east turning the winds back to southerly
by Saturday morning. Warm advection in advance of the next system
should produce plenty of VFR stratus and mid clouds late tonight
into Saturday.

Specifics for KSTL: Light west to northwest wind today as the
front has moved south of the terminal. High pressure will quickly
move east turning the wind back to southeast overnight and then
south to southwest during the day Saturday. Ceilings will stay
VFR through the period.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KEAX 050949
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
349 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Very little change to the going forecast philosophy, with overall
quiet weather on the horizon. Two shortwave troughs will be featured
over the next few days, but with limited moisture, little in the way
of sensible weather will be noted for the area. Mid/high clouds will
steadily increase during the day with readings warming into the
middle 30s to middle 40s. The first disturbance arrives overnight
and besides the increase in cloud cover, a few sprinkles cannot be
completely ruled out. Downglide quickly clears out cloud cover as
system departs on Saturday, with a continued mild weekend on tap for
the weekend. The second disturbance arrives Sunday/Monday, with
slightly more notable weather. A strengthening pressure gradient
will allow for gusty northwesterly winds on Sunday. Enough dynamics
and low-level moisture may allow for light precipitation in the
form of snow over the eastern two-thirds of the CWA. Much colder air
will advect into the area as the pattern becomes much more amplified
heading into early next week before readings gradually moderate to
near normal levels by the middle of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1112 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR conditions will likely persist through much of the next 24
hours. Winds will back to the southeast overnight before turning to
the west again Friday evening. Otherwise, the wind shift Friday
evening will see some lower clouds move in, but that cloud cover is
expected to be in the VFR range through the end of this TAF cycle.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Cutter




000
FXUS63 KEAX 050949
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
349 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Very little change to the going forecast philosophy, with overall
quiet weather on the horizon. Two shortwave troughs will be featured
over the next few days, but with limited moisture, little in the way
of sensible weather will be noted for the area. Mid/high clouds will
steadily increase during the day with readings warming into the
middle 30s to middle 40s. The first disturbance arrives overnight
and besides the increase in cloud cover, a few sprinkles cannot be
completely ruled out. Downglide quickly clears out cloud cover as
system departs on Saturday, with a continued mild weekend on tap for
the weekend. The second disturbance arrives Sunday/Monday, with
slightly more notable weather. A strengthening pressure gradient
will allow for gusty northwesterly winds on Sunday. Enough dynamics
and low-level moisture may allow for light precipitation in the
form of snow over the eastern two-thirds of the CWA. Much colder air
will advect into the area as the pattern becomes much more amplified
heading into early next week before readings gradually moderate to
near normal levels by the middle of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1112 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR conditions will likely persist through much of the next 24
hours. Winds will back to the southeast overnight before turning to
the west again Friday evening. Otherwise, the wind shift Friday
evening will see some lower clouds move in, but that cloud cover is
expected to be in the VFR range through the end of this TAF cycle.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Cutter




000
FXUS63 KLSX 050920
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
320 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Feb 5 2016

A weak cold front stretched from western IL through east-central
MO early this morning. This front will pass through the remainder
of the CWA by midday with weak high pressure settling into the
area in its wake, and high clouds ahead of the Rockies upper trof
spreading into the MS Valley. Not alot of cooling with this system,
and highs should be quite seasonable and just a bit above average
for early Feb. Warm advection will commence this evening in the
wake of the migratory high pressure system and ahead of the
elongated postively tilted upper trof moving into the central U.S.
While there will be a good deal of clouds accompanying the trof,
the region currently looks to be void of precipitation.
Forcing/ascent remain well to the south associated with a
prominent vort max within the southern portion of the upper trof.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Feb 5 2016

Lots of change underway during this period as the aforementioned
upper trof shifts east and the warm advection regime persists
Saturday, Saturday night, and into early Sunday resulting in above
normal temperatures.

Winter cold however returns late Sunday. An oceanic low in the
Pacific currently near 36N/170W will deepen as it moves northeastward
towards the Gulf of AK over the next 72h. This will result in
tremendous downstream amplification by Monday, with a high
amplitude trof evolving over the western U.S. and a broad deep
trof east of the Rockies. Large height falls will occur on Sunday
into Sunday evening thru the MS Valley as the lead upper trof digs
southeastward and deepens. The attendant initial cold front/trof
on Sunday will bring a southwest to west wind shift, with most of
the early cooling coming aloft. However a secondary cold
front/surge on Sunday night will be accompanied by gusty northwest
winds, strong CAA, and a threat of light snow. Cloudy and blustry
conditions are expected on Monday with a continued threat of light
snow. Below normal cold will then persist into Tuesday and
Wednesday as the deep upper trof dominates the eastern 2/3rds of
the Nation.

Present indications are that we will see height rises aloft after
Wednesday as the flow deamplfies with the trofing aloft becoming
quite broad anchored by a vortex near Hudson Bay. This should
result in a return to above average temperatures by the end of
next week.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1117 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2016

At KUIN...srn edge of mid range MVFR deck may briefly impact
terminal early in the period. Otherwise, VFR and dry thru the TAF
period at all terminals. Winds remain below 10 kts with cigs
developing Fri morning and gradually lowering thru the day.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 050920
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
320 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Feb 5 2016

A weak cold front stretched from western IL through east-central
MO early this morning. This front will pass through the remainder
of the CWA by midday with weak high pressure settling into the
area in its wake, and high clouds ahead of the Rockies upper trof
spreading into the MS Valley. Not alot of cooling with this system,
and highs should be quite seasonable and just a bit above average
for early Feb. Warm advection will commence this evening in the
wake of the migratory high pressure system and ahead of the
elongated postively tilted upper trof moving into the central U.S.
While there will be a good deal of clouds accompanying the trof,
the region currently looks to be void of precipitation.
Forcing/ascent remain well to the south associated with a
prominent vort max within the southern portion of the upper trof.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Feb 5 2016

Lots of change underway during this period as the aforementioned
upper trof shifts east and the warm advection regime persists
Saturday, Saturday night, and into early Sunday resulting in above
normal temperatures.

Winter cold however returns late Sunday. An oceanic low in the
Pacific currently near 36N/170W will deepen as it moves northeastward
towards the Gulf of AK over the next 72h. This will result in
tremendous downstream amplification by Monday, with a high
amplitude trof evolving over the western U.S. and a broad deep
trof east of the Rockies. Large height falls will occur on Sunday
into Sunday evening thru the MS Valley as the lead upper trof digs
southeastward and deepens. The attendant initial cold front/trof
on Sunday will bring a southwest to west wind shift, with most of
the early cooling coming aloft. However a secondary cold
front/surge on Sunday night will be accompanied by gusty northwest
winds, strong CAA, and a threat of light snow. Cloudy and blustry
conditions are expected on Monday with a continued threat of light
snow. Below normal cold will then persist into Tuesday and
Wednesday as the deep upper trof dominates the eastern 2/3rds of
the Nation.

Present indications are that we will see height rises aloft after
Wednesday as the flow deamplfies with the trofing aloft becoming
quite broad anchored by a vortex near Hudson Bay. This should
result in a return to above average temperatures by the end of
next week.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1117 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2016

At KUIN...srn edge of mid range MVFR deck may briefly impact
terminal early in the period. Otherwise, VFR and dry thru the TAF
period at all terminals. Winds remain below 10 kts with cigs
developing Fri morning and gradually lowering thru the day.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 050920
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
320 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Feb 5 2016

A weak cold front stretched from western IL through east-central
MO early this morning. This front will pass through the remainder
of the CWA by midday with weak high pressure settling into the
area in its wake, and high clouds ahead of the Rockies upper trof
spreading into the MS Valley. Not alot of cooling with this system,
and highs should be quite seasonable and just a bit above average
for early Feb. Warm advection will commence this evening in the
wake of the migratory high pressure system and ahead of the
elongated postively tilted upper trof moving into the central U.S.
While there will be a good deal of clouds accompanying the trof,
the region currently looks to be void of precipitation.
Forcing/ascent remain well to the south associated with a
prominent vort max within the southern portion of the upper trof.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Feb 5 2016

Lots of change underway during this period as the aforementioned
upper trof shifts east and the warm advection regime persists
Saturday, Saturday night, and into early Sunday resulting in above
normal temperatures.

Winter cold however returns late Sunday. An oceanic low in the
Pacific currently near 36N/170W will deepen as it moves northeastward
towards the Gulf of AK over the next 72h. This will result in
tremendous downstream amplification by Monday, with a high
amplitude trof evolving over the western U.S. and a broad deep
trof east of the Rockies. Large height falls will occur on Sunday
into Sunday evening thru the MS Valley as the lead upper trof digs
southeastward and deepens. The attendant initial cold front/trof
on Sunday will bring a southwest to west wind shift, with most of
the early cooling coming aloft. However a secondary cold
front/surge on Sunday night will be accompanied by gusty northwest
winds, strong CAA, and a threat of light snow. Cloudy and blustry
conditions are expected on Monday with a continued threat of light
snow. Below normal cold will then persist into Tuesday and
Wednesday as the deep upper trof dominates the eastern 2/3rds of
the Nation.

Present indications are that we will see height rises aloft after
Wednesday as the flow deamplfies with the trofing aloft becoming
quite broad anchored by a vortex near Hudson Bay. This should
result in a return to above average temperatures by the end of
next week.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1117 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2016

At KUIN...srn edge of mid range MVFR deck may briefly impact
terminal early in the period. Otherwise, VFR and dry thru the TAF
period at all terminals. Winds remain below 10 kts with cigs
developing Fri morning and gradually lowering thru the day.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KSGF 050842
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
242 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

...Seasonably Cool Through The Weekend...Cold Snap Early Next
Week...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0231 AM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

High clouds are on the increase this morning from west to east as
the next upper level wave is moving across the High Plains region.
This disturbance will move southeastward today and tonight. We
will only see mid and high level cloudiness from this moisture
starved system. Will not rule out a few sprinkles or flurries
possible tonight across the far southwest corner of the area
including portions of southeast Kansas. There should not be any
impacts if this occurs.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 0231 AM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

The weekend is not look too bad with mostly sunny to partly cloudy
skies and high temperatures slightly above average. Dry weather is
expected through Sunday evening. Will need to watch Sunday
afternoon for an elevated fire danger across southeast Kansas and
portions of western Missouri. Winds will become breezy and gusty
with a relatively dry airmass in place.

A deep trough will build across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
region by Monday and Tuesday. A strong cold front will move
through late Sunday night into Monday morning. Clouds and a few
sprinkles or flurries may accompany the front. The main core of
the cold airmass will be just to our east across the Ohio River
Valley region. Models indicate a cold and windy day across the
Missouri Ozarks on Monday with scattered snow flurries or very
light snow showers. At this time...not expecting any accumulations
or impacts but it will be a reminder that Winter is still around.
Wind chills may drop down into the teens and single digits early
next week.

The deep trough lifts out of the region and somewhat flatten flow
returns for middle of next week. Temperatures will rebound back to
more seasonable levels with dry weather. There is no significant
or measurable precip in the forecast over the next 7 days for the
local area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1104 PM CST THU FEB 04 2016

Mid/upper level cloud cover starting to push into eastern KS late
this evening in advance of next shortwave. The cloud cover will
increase late tonight over the TAF locations but ceilings will
remain VFR through the period.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg




000
FXUS63 KSGF 050842
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
242 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

...Seasonably Cool Through The Weekend...Cold Snap Early Next
Week...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0231 AM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

High clouds are on the increase this morning from west to east as
the next upper level wave is moving across the High Plains region.
This disturbance will move southeastward today and tonight. We
will only see mid and high level cloudiness from this moisture
starved system. Will not rule out a few sprinkles or flurries
possible tonight across the far southwest corner of the area
including portions of southeast Kansas. There should not be any
impacts if this occurs.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 0231 AM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

The weekend is not look too bad with mostly sunny to partly cloudy
skies and high temperatures slightly above average. Dry weather is
expected through Sunday evening. Will need to watch Sunday
afternoon for an elevated fire danger across southeast Kansas and
portions of western Missouri. Winds will become breezy and gusty
with a relatively dry airmass in place.

A deep trough will build across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
region by Monday and Tuesday. A strong cold front will move
through late Sunday night into Monday morning. Clouds and a few
sprinkles or flurries may accompany the front. The main core of
the cold airmass will be just to our east across the Ohio River
Valley region. Models indicate a cold and windy day across the
Missouri Ozarks on Monday with scattered snow flurries or very
light snow showers. At this time...not expecting any accumulations
or impacts but it will be a reminder that Winter is still around.
Wind chills may drop down into the teens and single digits early
next week.

The deep trough lifts out of the region and somewhat flatten flow
returns for middle of next week. Temperatures will rebound back to
more seasonable levels with dry weather. There is no significant
or measurable precip in the forecast over the next 7 days for the
local area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1104 PM CST THU FEB 04 2016

Mid/upper level cloud cover starting to push into eastern KS late
this evening in advance of next shortwave. The cloud cover will
increase late tonight over the TAF locations but ceilings will
remain VFR through the period.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg




000
FXUS63 KSGF 050842
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
242 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

...Seasonably Cool Through The Weekend...Cold Snap Early Next
Week...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0231 AM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

High clouds are on the increase this morning from west to east as
the next upper level wave is moving across the High Plains region.
This disturbance will move southeastward today and tonight. We
will only see mid and high level cloudiness from this moisture
starved system. Will not rule out a few sprinkles or flurries
possible tonight across the far southwest corner of the area
including portions of southeast Kansas. There should not be any
impacts if this occurs.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 0231 AM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

The weekend is not look too bad with mostly sunny to partly cloudy
skies and high temperatures slightly above average. Dry weather is
expected through Sunday evening. Will need to watch Sunday
afternoon for an elevated fire danger across southeast Kansas and
portions of western Missouri. Winds will become breezy and gusty
with a relatively dry airmass in place.

A deep trough will build across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
region by Monday and Tuesday. A strong cold front will move
through late Sunday night into Monday morning. Clouds and a few
sprinkles or flurries may accompany the front. The main core of
the cold airmass will be just to our east across the Ohio River
Valley region. Models indicate a cold and windy day across the
Missouri Ozarks on Monday with scattered snow flurries or very
light snow showers. At this time...not expecting any accumulations
or impacts but it will be a reminder that Winter is still around.
Wind chills may drop down into the teens and single digits early
next week.

The deep trough lifts out of the region and somewhat flatten flow
returns for middle of next week. Temperatures will rebound back to
more seasonable levels with dry weather. There is no significant
or measurable precip in the forecast over the next 7 days for the
local area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1104 PM CST THU FEB 04 2016

Mid/upper level cloud cover starting to push into eastern KS late
this evening in advance of next shortwave. The cloud cover will
increase late tonight over the TAF locations but ceilings will
remain VFR through the period.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg



000
FXUS63 KLSX 050522
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1122 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 219 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2016

The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement that upper trough
currently seen on water vapor over the upper Midwest will rotate
eastward across the Great Lakes tonight. As it does it will cause
its attendant cold front currently over the Dakotas and Minnesota
to dive southeastward across Missouri and Illinois late tonight.
Still do not expect any precipitation with the passage of this
front as the low-mid level moisture is very limited. Temperatures
tonight will easily fall back down to MOS temp guidance with
clear skies and cold air advection behind the cold front.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 219 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2016

Shortwave ridging aloft combined with a surface high pressure
center passing through the ARKLATEX region will ensure quiet wx
conditions across the CWA on Fri. A couple of upstream shortwaves
will move across the central and southern CONUS on Fri night into
Sat, possibly phasing over the south-central CONUS by 12z Sat
depending on which model solution ultimately has the better
handle on the position of the northern vort max. An overall
increase in cloudiness is expected ahead of these features, and a
few locations might see sprinkles or flurries on Fri night or Sat
morning.

A warming trend will continue across the area through Sunday with
highs on Sunday reaching the upper 40s to mid-50s. Thereafter, a
significant change in the upper air pattn will usher in a period
of much colder temperatures for at least the early and middle
part of next week due to periodic intrusions of Arctic air
masses. Overnight lows in the teens and 20s are expected on
Monday night and Tuesday night.

A vigorous shortwave is forecast to move onshore near WA/OR
around 06z Sat. RAOB sampling may not occur until 12z Sat. After
this feature crosses the Rockies, it then dives southeastward
into the plains and western Great Lakes. Meanwhile, an amplifying
ridge over the west coast induces a downstream trough over the
eastern half of the CONUS, which is then reinforced by the
aforementioned shortwave as well as several additional shortwaves
diving southward out of Canada during the early part of next week.
Ultimately, a large closed low should settle somewhere over the
Great Lakes region and upper Ohio valley for the first half of
next week.

The next opportunity for widespread precipitation will occur
from Sunday night through Monday night with the initial approach
of the aforementioned vigorous shortwave. Attm it looks like a
straightforward RA/SN mix (depending on the thermal profile at any
given location) transitioning to light snow due to the increasing
depth of cold air. Decent H7-H5 lapse rates, cyclonic flow, and
synoptic scale lift support the idea of isolated to scattered
instability snow showers on Monday on the back side of the newly
stacked upper low. A similar scenario is anticipated on Tuesday,
although by that time the upper low will have shifted just far
enough eastward to confine precip chances to the easternmost
portion of the CWA.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1117 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2016

At KUIN...srn edge of mid range MVFR deck may briefly impact
terminal early in the period. Otherwise, VFR and dry thru the TAF
period at all terminals. Winds remain below 10 kts with cigs
developing Fri morning and gradually lowering thru the day.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 050522
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1122 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 219 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2016

The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement that upper trough
currently seen on water vapor over the upper Midwest will rotate
eastward across the Great Lakes tonight. As it does it will cause
its attendant cold front currently over the Dakotas and Minnesota
to dive southeastward across Missouri and Illinois late tonight.
Still do not expect any precipitation with the passage of this
front as the low-mid level moisture is very limited. Temperatures
tonight will easily fall back down to MOS temp guidance with
clear skies and cold air advection behind the cold front.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 219 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2016

Shortwave ridging aloft combined with a surface high pressure
center passing through the ARKLATEX region will ensure quiet wx
conditions across the CWA on Fri. A couple of upstream shortwaves
will move across the central and southern CONUS on Fri night into
Sat, possibly phasing over the south-central CONUS by 12z Sat
depending on which model solution ultimately has the better
handle on the position of the northern vort max. An overall
increase in cloudiness is expected ahead of these features, and a
few locations might see sprinkles or flurries on Fri night or Sat
morning.

A warming trend will continue across the area through Sunday with
highs on Sunday reaching the upper 40s to mid-50s. Thereafter, a
significant change in the upper air pattn will usher in a period
of much colder temperatures for at least the early and middle
part of next week due to periodic intrusions of Arctic air
masses. Overnight lows in the teens and 20s are expected on
Monday night and Tuesday night.

A vigorous shortwave is forecast to move onshore near WA/OR
around 06z Sat. RAOB sampling may not occur until 12z Sat. After
this feature crosses the Rockies, it then dives southeastward
into the plains and western Great Lakes. Meanwhile, an amplifying
ridge over the west coast induces a downstream trough over the
eastern half of the CONUS, which is then reinforced by the
aforementioned shortwave as well as several additional shortwaves
diving southward out of Canada during the early part of next week.
Ultimately, a large closed low should settle somewhere over the
Great Lakes region and upper Ohio valley for the first half of
next week.

The next opportunity for widespread precipitation will occur
from Sunday night through Monday night with the initial approach
of the aforementioned vigorous shortwave. Attm it looks like a
straightforward RA/SN mix (depending on the thermal profile at any
given location) transitioning to light snow due to the increasing
depth of cold air. Decent H7-H5 lapse rates, cyclonic flow, and
synoptic scale lift support the idea of isolated to scattered
instability snow showers on Monday on the back side of the newly
stacked upper low. A similar scenario is anticipated on Tuesday,
although by that time the upper low will have shifted just far
enough eastward to confine precip chances to the easternmost
portion of the CWA.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1117 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2016

At KUIN...srn edge of mid range MVFR deck may briefly impact
terminal early in the period. Otherwise, VFR and dry thru the TAF
period at all terminals. Winds remain below 10 kts with cigs
developing Fri morning and gradually lowering thru the day.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 050522
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1122 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 219 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2016

The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement that upper trough
currently seen on water vapor over the upper Midwest will rotate
eastward across the Great Lakes tonight. As it does it will cause
its attendant cold front currently over the Dakotas and Minnesota
to dive southeastward across Missouri and Illinois late tonight.
Still do not expect any precipitation with the passage of this
front as the low-mid level moisture is very limited. Temperatures
tonight will easily fall back down to MOS temp guidance with
clear skies and cold air advection behind the cold front.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 219 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2016

Shortwave ridging aloft combined with a surface high pressure
center passing through the ARKLATEX region will ensure quiet wx
conditions across the CWA on Fri. A couple of upstream shortwaves
will move across the central and southern CONUS on Fri night into
Sat, possibly phasing over the south-central CONUS by 12z Sat
depending on which model solution ultimately has the better
handle on the position of the northern vort max. An overall
increase in cloudiness is expected ahead of these features, and a
few locations might see sprinkles or flurries on Fri night or Sat
morning.

A warming trend will continue across the area through Sunday with
highs on Sunday reaching the upper 40s to mid-50s. Thereafter, a
significant change in the upper air pattn will usher in a period
of much colder temperatures for at least the early and middle
part of next week due to periodic intrusions of Arctic air
masses. Overnight lows in the teens and 20s are expected on
Monday night and Tuesday night.

A vigorous shortwave is forecast to move onshore near WA/OR
around 06z Sat. RAOB sampling may not occur until 12z Sat. After
this feature crosses the Rockies, it then dives southeastward
into the plains and western Great Lakes. Meanwhile, an amplifying
ridge over the west coast induces a downstream trough over the
eastern half of the CONUS, which is then reinforced by the
aforementioned shortwave as well as several additional shortwaves
diving southward out of Canada during the early part of next week.
Ultimately, a large closed low should settle somewhere over the
Great Lakes region and upper Ohio valley for the first half of
next week.

The next opportunity for widespread precipitation will occur
from Sunday night through Monday night with the initial approach
of the aforementioned vigorous shortwave. Attm it looks like a
straightforward RA/SN mix (depending on the thermal profile at any
given location) transitioning to light snow due to the increasing
depth of cold air. Decent H7-H5 lapse rates, cyclonic flow, and
synoptic scale lift support the idea of isolated to scattered
instability snow showers on Monday on the back side of the newly
stacked upper low. A similar scenario is anticipated on Tuesday,
although by that time the upper low will have shifted just far
enough eastward to confine precip chances to the easternmost
portion of the CWA.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1117 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2016

At KUIN...srn edge of mid range MVFR deck may briefly impact
terminal early in the period. Otherwise, VFR and dry thru the TAF
period at all terminals. Winds remain below 10 kts with cigs
developing Fri morning and gradually lowering thru the day.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KEAX 050512
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1112 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Short Term (Tonight - Saturday night):

Lacking a snowstorm to grab one`s attention will have to settle on
watching an elongated upper trough heading our way. Water vapor
satellite imagery shows two vorticity maxima, one near the 4-corners
and the other over southwest MT. Both are tracking southeast and by
process of elimination it`ll be the MT feature that will affect us.
Not expecting much affect on the sensible weather as low level
moisture will be lacking as noted by the dry wedge in the near
surface layer. Do think there will be sufficient mid level warm air
advection to generate a good deal of mid clouds and sufficient top-
down saturation to wring out widely scattered light rain
showers/sprinkles over the southeast 1/2 of the CWA Friday night.
Bufr soundings also suggest presence of ice crystals so can`t rule
out snow mixed in with the rain.

Progressive upstream shortwave ridging aloft won`t allow any cold air
advection to settle in so mild temperatures expected on Saturday
aided by at least partly cloudy skies.

Long Term (Sunday - Thursday):

The upper pattern becomes extremely amplified by early next week
with a very deep and expansive upper trough east of the MO River and
a sharpening upper ridge over the western U.S. While the AO is
trending towards negative it`s hard to say this cold shot is a
result of it warm air advection spreads back into the picture by
Thursday, Wednesday if the more progressive GFS is to be believed.

The brief surge of arctic air is expected to overspread the region
beginning Sunday night as a second upper trough, stronger than Friday
night`s version, dives southeast across the Northern/Central Plains
and MO River Valley. With the Gulf of Mexico not opening up until
the cold front is east of us and the best dynamics also east of us
this system will have to rely on the moisture it brings with it for
any precipitation in our CWA. Believe there will be enough wrung out
for scattered snow showers/flurries Sunday night through Monday.
Seeing the strength of the deepening process with this upper trough
and long fetch on the backside of the surface low am a bit concerned
we are underestimating the strength of cold air advection and thus
the model blend being used may be too warm for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1112 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR conditions will likely persist through much of the next 24
hours. Winds will back to the southeast overnight before turning to
the west again Friday evening. Otherwise, the wind shift Friday
evening will see some lower clouds move in, but that cloud cover is
expected to be in the VFR range through the end of this TAF cycle.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Cutter




000
FXUS63 KEAX 050512
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1112 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Short Term (Tonight - Saturday night):

Lacking a snowstorm to grab one`s attention will have to settle on
watching an elongated upper trough heading our way. Water vapor
satellite imagery shows two vorticity maxima, one near the 4-corners
and the other over southwest MT. Both are tracking southeast and by
process of elimination it`ll be the MT feature that will affect us.
Not expecting much affect on the sensible weather as low level
moisture will be lacking as noted by the dry wedge in the near
surface layer. Do think there will be sufficient mid level warm air
advection to generate a good deal of mid clouds and sufficient top-
down saturation to wring out widely scattered light rain
showers/sprinkles over the southeast 1/2 of the CWA Friday night.
Bufr soundings also suggest presence of ice crystals so can`t rule
out snow mixed in with the rain.

Progressive upstream shortwave ridging aloft won`t allow any cold air
advection to settle in so mild temperatures expected on Saturday
aided by at least partly cloudy skies.

Long Term (Sunday - Thursday):

The upper pattern becomes extremely amplified by early next week
with a very deep and expansive upper trough east of the MO River and
a sharpening upper ridge over the western U.S. While the AO is
trending towards negative it`s hard to say this cold shot is a
result of it warm air advection spreads back into the picture by
Thursday, Wednesday if the more progressive GFS is to be believed.

The brief surge of arctic air is expected to overspread the region
beginning Sunday night as a second upper trough, stronger than Friday
night`s version, dives southeast across the Northern/Central Plains
and MO River Valley. With the Gulf of Mexico not opening up until
the cold front is east of us and the best dynamics also east of us
this system will have to rely on the moisture it brings with it for
any precipitation in our CWA. Believe there will be enough wrung out
for scattered snow showers/flurries Sunday night through Monday.
Seeing the strength of the deepening process with this upper trough
and long fetch on the backside of the surface low am a bit concerned
we are underestimating the strength of cold air advection and thus
the model blend being used may be too warm for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1112 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR conditions will likely persist through much of the next 24
hours. Winds will back to the southeast overnight before turning to
the west again Friday evening. Otherwise, the wind shift Friday
evening will see some lower clouds move in, but that cloud cover is
expected to be in the VFR range through the end of this TAF cycle.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Cutter



000
FXUS63 KEAX 050512
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1112 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Short Term (Tonight - Saturday night):

Lacking a snowstorm to grab one`s attention will have to settle on
watching an elongated upper trough heading our way. Water vapor
satellite imagery shows two vorticity maxima, one near the 4-corners
and the other over southwest MT. Both are tracking southeast and by
process of elimination it`ll be the MT feature that will affect us.
Not expecting much affect on the sensible weather as low level
moisture will be lacking as noted by the dry wedge in the near
surface layer. Do think there will be sufficient mid level warm air
advection to generate a good deal of mid clouds and sufficient top-
down saturation to wring out widely scattered light rain
showers/sprinkles over the southeast 1/2 of the CWA Friday night.
Bufr soundings also suggest presence of ice crystals so can`t rule
out snow mixed in with the rain.

Progressive upstream shortwave ridging aloft won`t allow any cold air
advection to settle in so mild temperatures expected on Saturday
aided by at least partly cloudy skies.

Long Term (Sunday - Thursday):

The upper pattern becomes extremely amplified by early next week
with a very deep and expansive upper trough east of the MO River and
a sharpening upper ridge over the western U.S. While the AO is
trending towards negative it`s hard to say this cold shot is a
result of it warm air advection spreads back into the picture by
Thursday, Wednesday if the more progressive GFS is to be believed.

The brief surge of arctic air is expected to overspread the region
beginning Sunday night as a second upper trough, stronger than Friday
night`s version, dives southeast across the Northern/Central Plains
and MO River Valley. With the Gulf of Mexico not opening up until
the cold front is east of us and the best dynamics also east of us
this system will have to rely on the moisture it brings with it for
any precipitation in our CWA. Believe there will be enough wrung out
for scattered snow showers/flurries Sunday night through Monday.
Seeing the strength of the deepening process with this upper trough
and long fetch on the backside of the surface low am a bit concerned
we are underestimating the strength of cold air advection and thus
the model blend being used may be too warm for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1112 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR conditions will likely persist through much of the next 24
hours. Winds will back to the southeast overnight before turning to
the west again Friday evening. Otherwise, the wind shift Friday
evening will see some lower clouds move in, but that cloud cover is
expected to be in the VFR range through the end of this TAF cycle.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Cutter




000
FXUS63 KSGF 050506
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
1106 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 0223 PM CST THU FEB 04 2016

Quiet and dry weather is expected. A sfc ridge of high pressure
will move through tonight and early Friday then shift off to the
east and southeast Friday afternoon. High temperatures should be
a few degrees warmer Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 0223 PM CST THU FEB 04 2016

The main weather impacts will be fire weather at times through
this period and cold/windy weather Mon/Mon night.

A moisture starved shortwave and weak sfc front will move through
the region Fri night with an increase in clouds along with a
chance of sprinkles/flurries for some areas. It will clear from
west to east Saturday. Sunday will remain dry and milder with
southwest winds ahead of the next approaching front. Moderate
fire weather concerns are expected Sunday afternoon, but winds
will likely remain below Red Flag criteria.

A high amplitude upper level pattern with a ridge over along the
west coast of NOAM and a trough in the east will allow cold air to
move south out into the eastern CONUS. Our area will take somewhat
of a glancing blow in terms of the cold air, but it will still be
cloudy, unseasonably cold, and blustery Monday behind a cold
front. We are expecting wind chill values in the single digits
(deg F) Mon night into Tue.

Temperatures will moderate through the midweek period as the cold
air mass moves off to the east. By day 7 (Thu) a return to warmer
than normal temperatures is expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1104 PM CST THU FEB 04 2016

Mid/upper level cloud cover starting to push into eastern KS late
this evening in advance of next shortwave. The cloud cover will
increase late tonight over the TAF locations but ceilings will
remain VFR through the period.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg




000
FXUS63 KSGF 050506
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
1106 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 0223 PM CST THU FEB 04 2016

Quiet and dry weather is expected. A sfc ridge of high pressure
will move through tonight and early Friday then shift off to the
east and southeast Friday afternoon. High temperatures should be
a few degrees warmer Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 0223 PM CST THU FEB 04 2016

The main weather impacts will be fire weather at times through
this period and cold/windy weather Mon/Mon night.

A moisture starved shortwave and weak sfc front will move through
the region Fri night with an increase in clouds along with a
chance of sprinkles/flurries for some areas. It will clear from
west to east Saturday. Sunday will remain dry and milder with
southwest winds ahead of the next approaching front. Moderate
fire weather concerns are expected Sunday afternoon, but winds
will likely remain below Red Flag criteria.

A high amplitude upper level pattern with a ridge over along the
west coast of NOAM and a trough in the east will allow cold air to
move south out into the eastern CONUS. Our area will take somewhat
of a glancing blow in terms of the cold air, but it will still be
cloudy, unseasonably cold, and blustery Monday behind a cold
front. We are expecting wind chill values in the single digits
(deg F) Mon night into Tue.

Temperatures will moderate through the midweek period as the cold
air mass moves off to the east. By day 7 (Thu) a return to warmer
than normal temperatures is expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1104 PM CST THU FEB 04 2016

Mid/upper level cloud cover starting to push into eastern KS late
this evening in advance of next shortwave. The cloud cover will
increase late tonight over the TAF locations but ceilings will
remain VFR through the period.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg



000
FXUS63 KSGF 050506
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
1106 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 0223 PM CST THU FEB 04 2016

Quiet and dry weather is expected. A sfc ridge of high pressure
will move through tonight and early Friday then shift off to the
east and southeast Friday afternoon. High temperatures should be
a few degrees warmer Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 0223 PM CST THU FEB 04 2016

The main weather impacts will be fire weather at times through
this period and cold/windy weather Mon/Mon night.

A moisture starved shortwave and weak sfc front will move through
the region Fri night with an increase in clouds along with a
chance of sprinkles/flurries for some areas. It will clear from
west to east Saturday. Sunday will remain dry and milder with
southwest winds ahead of the next approaching front. Moderate
fire weather concerns are expected Sunday afternoon, but winds
will likely remain below Red Flag criteria.

A high amplitude upper level pattern with a ridge over along the
west coast of NOAM and a trough in the east will allow cold air to
move south out into the eastern CONUS. Our area will take somewhat
of a glancing blow in terms of the cold air, but it will still be
cloudy, unseasonably cold, and blustery Monday behind a cold
front. We are expecting wind chill values in the single digits
(deg F) Mon night into Tue.

Temperatures will moderate through the midweek period as the cold
air mass moves off to the east. By day 7 (Thu) a return to warmer
than normal temperatures is expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1104 PM CST THU FEB 04 2016

Mid/upper level cloud cover starting to push into eastern KS late
this evening in advance of next shortwave. The cloud cover will
increase late tonight over the TAF locations but ceilings will
remain VFR through the period.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg



000
FXUS63 KSGF 050506
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
1106 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 0223 PM CST THU FEB 04 2016

Quiet and dry weather is expected. A sfc ridge of high pressure
will move through tonight and early Friday then shift off to the
east and southeast Friday afternoon. High temperatures should be
a few degrees warmer Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 0223 PM CST THU FEB 04 2016

The main weather impacts will be fire weather at times through
this period and cold/windy weather Mon/Mon night.

A moisture starved shortwave and weak sfc front will move through
the region Fri night with an increase in clouds along with a
chance of sprinkles/flurries for some areas. It will clear from
west to east Saturday. Sunday will remain dry and milder with
southwest winds ahead of the next approaching front. Moderate
fire weather concerns are expected Sunday afternoon, but winds
will likely remain below Red Flag criteria.

A high amplitude upper level pattern with a ridge over along the
west coast of NOAM and a trough in the east will allow cold air to
move south out into the eastern CONUS. Our area will take somewhat
of a glancing blow in terms of the cold air, but it will still be
cloudy, unseasonably cold, and blustery Monday behind a cold
front. We are expecting wind chill values in the single digits
(deg F) Mon night into Tue.

Temperatures will moderate through the midweek period as the cold
air mass moves off to the east. By day 7 (Thu) a return to warmer
than normal temperatures is expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1104 PM CST THU FEB 04 2016

Mid/upper level cloud cover starting to push into eastern KS late
this evening in advance of next shortwave. The cloud cover will
increase late tonight over the TAF locations but ceilings will
remain VFR through the period.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg



000
FXUS63 KSGF 050506
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
1106 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 0223 PM CST THU FEB 04 2016

Quiet and dry weather is expected. A sfc ridge of high pressure
will move through tonight and early Friday then shift off to the
east and southeast Friday afternoon. High temperatures should be
a few degrees warmer Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 0223 PM CST THU FEB 04 2016

The main weather impacts will be fire weather at times through
this period and cold/windy weather Mon/Mon night.

A moisture starved shortwave and weak sfc front will move through
the region Fri night with an increase in clouds along with a
chance of sprinkles/flurries for some areas. It will clear from
west to east Saturday. Sunday will remain dry and milder with
southwest winds ahead of the next approaching front. Moderate
fire weather concerns are expected Sunday afternoon, but winds
will likely remain below Red Flag criteria.

A high amplitude upper level pattern with a ridge over along the
west coast of NOAM and a trough in the east will allow cold air to
move south out into the eastern CONUS. Our area will take somewhat
of a glancing blow in terms of the cold air, but it will still be
cloudy, unseasonably cold, and blustery Monday behind a cold
front. We are expecting wind chill values in the single digits
(deg F) Mon night into Tue.

Temperatures will moderate through the midweek period as the cold
air mass moves off to the east. By day 7 (Thu) a return to warmer
than normal temperatures is expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1104 PM CST THU FEB 04 2016

Mid/upper level cloud cover starting to push into eastern KS late
this evening in advance of next shortwave. The cloud cover will
increase late tonight over the TAF locations but ceilings will
remain VFR through the period.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg



000
FXUS63 KLSX 042331
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
531 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 219 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2016

The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement that upper trough
currently seen on water vapor over the upper Midwest will rotate
eastward across the Great Lakes tonight. As it does it will cause
its attendant cold front currently over the Dakotas and Minnesota
to dive southeastward across Missouri and Illinois late tonight.
Still do not expect any precipitation with the passage of this
front as the low-mid level moisture is very limited. Temperatures
tonight will easily fall back down to MOS temp guidance with
clear skies and cold air advection behind the cold front.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 219 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2016

Shortwave ridging aloft combined with a surface high pressure
center passing through the ARKLATEX region will ensure quiet wx
conditions across the CWA on Fri. A couple of upstream shortwaves
will move across the central and southern CONUS on Fri night into
Sat, possibly phasing over the south-central CONUS by 12z Sat
depending on which model solution ultimately has the better
handle on the position of the northern vort max. An overall
increase in cloudiness is expected ahead of these features, and a
few locations might see sprinkles or flurries on Fri night or Sat
morning.

A warming trend will continue across the area through Sunday with
highs on Sunday reaching the upper 40s to mid-50s. Thereafter, a
significant change in the upper air pattn will usher in a period
of much colder temperatures for at least the early and middle
part of next week due to periodic intrusions of Arctic air
masses. Overnight lows in the teens and 20s are expected on
Monday night and Tuesday night.

A vigorous shortwave is forecast to move onshore near WA/OR
around 06z Sat. RAOB sampling may not occur until 12z Sat. After
this feature crosses the Rockies, it then dives southeastward
into the plains and western Great Lakes. Meanwhile, an amplifying
ridge over the west coast induces a downstream trough over the
eastern half of the CONUS, which is then reinforced by the
aforementioned shortwave as well as several additional shortwaves
diving southward out of Canada during the early part of next week.
Ultimately, a large closed low should settle somewhere over the
Great Lakes region and upper Ohio valley for the first half of
next week.

The next opportunity for widespread precipitation will occur
from Sunday night through Monday night with the initial approach
of the aforementioned vigorous shortwave. Attm it looks like a
straightforward RA/SN mix (depending on the thermal profile at any
given location) transitioning to light snow due to the increasing
depth of cold air. Decent H7-H5 lapse rates, cyclonic flow, and
synoptic scale lift support the idea of isolated to scattered
instability snow showers on Monday on the back side of the newly
stacked upper low. A similar scenario is anticipated on Tuesday,
although by that time the upper low will have shifted just far
enough eastward to confine precip chances to the easternmost
portion of the CWA.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 530 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2016

VFR and dry thru the TAF period with winds remaining below 10 kts.
Sely winds will veer to become ene to ne before becoming vrb on
Fri.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 042331
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
531 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 219 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2016

The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement that upper trough
currently seen on water vapor over the upper Midwest will rotate
eastward across the Great Lakes tonight. As it does it will cause
its attendant cold front currently over the Dakotas and Minnesota
to dive southeastward across Missouri and Illinois late tonight.
Still do not expect any precipitation with the passage of this
front as the low-mid level moisture is very limited. Temperatures
tonight will easily fall back down to MOS temp guidance with
clear skies and cold air advection behind the cold front.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 219 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2016

Shortwave ridging aloft combined with a surface high pressure
center passing through the ARKLATEX region will ensure quiet wx
conditions across the CWA on Fri. A couple of upstream shortwaves
will move across the central and southern CONUS on Fri night into
Sat, possibly phasing over the south-central CONUS by 12z Sat
depending on which model solution ultimately has the better
handle on the position of the northern vort max. An overall
increase in cloudiness is expected ahead of these features, and a
few locations might see sprinkles or flurries on Fri night or Sat
morning.

A warming trend will continue across the area through Sunday with
highs on Sunday reaching the upper 40s to mid-50s. Thereafter, a
significant change in the upper air pattn will usher in a period
of much colder temperatures for at least the early and middle
part of next week due to periodic intrusions of Arctic air
masses. Overnight lows in the teens and 20s are expected on
Monday night and Tuesday night.

A vigorous shortwave is forecast to move onshore near WA/OR
around 06z Sat. RAOB sampling may not occur until 12z Sat. After
this feature crosses the Rockies, it then dives southeastward
into the plains and western Great Lakes. Meanwhile, an amplifying
ridge over the west coast induces a downstream trough over the
eastern half of the CONUS, which is then reinforced by the
aforementioned shortwave as well as several additional shortwaves
diving southward out of Canada during the early part of next week.
Ultimately, a large closed low should settle somewhere over the
Great Lakes region and upper Ohio valley for the first half of
next week.

The next opportunity for widespread precipitation will occur
from Sunday night through Monday night with the initial approach
of the aforementioned vigorous shortwave. Attm it looks like a
straightforward RA/SN mix (depending on the thermal profile at any
given location) transitioning to light snow due to the increasing
depth of cold air. Decent H7-H5 lapse rates, cyclonic flow, and
synoptic scale lift support the idea of isolated to scattered
instability snow showers on Monday on the back side of the newly
stacked upper low. A similar scenario is anticipated on Tuesday,
although by that time the upper low will have shifted just far
enough eastward to confine precip chances to the easternmost
portion of the CWA.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 530 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2016

VFR and dry thru the TAF period with winds remaining below 10 kts.
Sely winds will veer to become ene to ne before becoming vrb on
Fri.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KEAX 042311
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
511 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Short Term (Tonight - Saturday night):

Lacking a snowstorm to grab one`s attention will have to settle on
watching an elongated upper trough heading our way. Water vapor
satellite imagery shows two vorticity maxima, one near the 4-corners
and the other over southwest MT. Both are tracking southeast and by
process of elimination it`ll be the MT feature that will affect us.
Not expecting much affect on the sensible weather as low level
moisture will be lacking as noted by the dry wedge in the near
surface layer. Do think there will be sufficient mid level warm air
advection to generate a good deal of mid clouds and sufficient top-
down saturation to wring out widely scattered light rain
showers/sprinkles over the southeast 1/2 of the CWA Friday night.
Bufr soundings also suggest presence of ice crystals so can`t rule
out snow mixed in with the rain.

Progressive upstream shortwave ridging aloft won`t allow any cold air
advection to settle in so mild temperatures expected on Saturday
aided by at least partly cloudy skies.

Long Term (Sunday - Thursday):

The upper pattern becomes extremely amplified by early next week
with a very deep and expansive upper trough east of the MO River and
a sharpening upper ridge over the western U.S. While the AO is
trending towards negative it`s hard to say this cold shot is a
result of it warm air advection spreads back into the picture by
Thursday, Wednesday if the more progressive GFS is to be believed.

The brief surge of arctic air is expected to overspread the region
beginning Sunday night as a second upper trough, stronger than Friday
night`s version, dives southeast across the Northern/Central Plains
and MO River Valley. With the Gulf of Mexico not opening up until
the cold front is east of us and the best dynamics also east of us
this system will have to rely on the moisture it brings with it for
any precipitation in our CWA. Believe there will be enough wrung out
for scattered snow showers/flurries Sunday night through Monday.
Seeing the strength of the deepening process with this upper trough
and long fetch on the backside of the surface low am a bit concerned
we are underestimating the strength of cold air advection and thus
the model blend being used may be too warm for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 511 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR conditions will dominate the terminals over the next 24 hours.
Only thing to watch will be slow back of the winds overnight as a
trough moves through, with any notable CIGs likely waiting till after
the end of this TAF cycle.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Cutter




000
FXUS63 KEAX 042311
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
511 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Short Term (Tonight - Saturday night):

Lacking a snowstorm to grab one`s attention will have to settle on
watching an elongated upper trough heading our way. Water vapor
satellite imagery shows two vorticity maxima, one near the 4-corners
and the other over southwest MT. Both are tracking southeast and by
process of elimination it`ll be the MT feature that will affect us.
Not expecting much affect on the sensible weather as low level
moisture will be lacking as noted by the dry wedge in the near
surface layer. Do think there will be sufficient mid level warm air
advection to generate a good deal of mid clouds and sufficient top-
down saturation to wring out widely scattered light rain
showers/sprinkles over the southeast 1/2 of the CWA Friday night.
Bufr soundings also suggest presence of ice crystals so can`t rule
out snow mixed in with the rain.

Progressive upstream shortwave ridging aloft won`t allow any cold air
advection to settle in so mild temperatures expected on Saturday
aided by at least partly cloudy skies.

Long Term (Sunday - Thursday):

The upper pattern becomes extremely amplified by early next week
with a very deep and expansive upper trough east of the MO River and
a sharpening upper ridge over the western U.S. While the AO is
trending towards negative it`s hard to say this cold shot is a
result of it warm air advection spreads back into the picture by
Thursday, Wednesday if the more progressive GFS is to be believed.

The brief surge of arctic air is expected to overspread the region
beginning Sunday night as a second upper trough, stronger than Friday
night`s version, dives southeast across the Northern/Central Plains
and MO River Valley. With the Gulf of Mexico not opening up until
the cold front is east of us and the best dynamics also east of us
this system will have to rely on the moisture it brings with it for
any precipitation in our CWA. Believe there will be enough wrung out
for scattered snow showers/flurries Sunday night through Monday.
Seeing the strength of the deepening process with this upper trough
and long fetch on the backside of the surface low am a bit concerned
we are underestimating the strength of cold air advection and thus
the model blend being used may be too warm for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 511 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR conditions will dominate the terminals over the next 24 hours.
Only thing to watch will be slow back of the winds overnight as a
trough moves through, with any notable CIGs likely waiting till after
the end of this TAF cycle.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Cutter



000
FXUS63 KEAX 042311
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
511 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Short Term (Tonight - Saturday night):

Lacking a snowstorm to grab one`s attention will have to settle on
watching an elongated upper trough heading our way. Water vapor
satellite imagery shows two vorticity maxima, one near the 4-corners
and the other over southwest MT. Both are tracking southeast and by
process of elimination it`ll be the MT feature that will affect us.
Not expecting much affect on the sensible weather as low level
moisture will be lacking as noted by the dry wedge in the near
surface layer. Do think there will be sufficient mid level warm air
advection to generate a good deal of mid clouds and sufficient top-
down saturation to wring out widely scattered light rain
showers/sprinkles over the southeast 1/2 of the CWA Friday night.
Bufr soundings also suggest presence of ice crystals so can`t rule
out snow mixed in with the rain.

Progressive upstream shortwave ridging aloft won`t allow any cold air
advection to settle in so mild temperatures expected on Saturday
aided by at least partly cloudy skies.

Long Term (Sunday - Thursday):

The upper pattern becomes extremely amplified by early next week
with a very deep and expansive upper trough east of the MO River and
a sharpening upper ridge over the western U.S. While the AO is
trending towards negative it`s hard to say this cold shot is a
result of it warm air advection spreads back into the picture by
Thursday, Wednesday if the more progressive GFS is to be believed.

The brief surge of arctic air is expected to overspread the region
beginning Sunday night as a second upper trough, stronger than Friday
night`s version, dives southeast across the Northern/Central Plains
and MO River Valley. With the Gulf of Mexico not opening up until
the cold front is east of us and the best dynamics also east of us
this system will have to rely on the moisture it brings with it for
any precipitation in our CWA. Believe there will be enough wrung out
for scattered snow showers/flurries Sunday night through Monday.
Seeing the strength of the deepening process with this upper trough
and long fetch on the backside of the surface low am a bit concerned
we are underestimating the strength of cold air advection and thus
the model blend being used may be too warm for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 511 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR conditions will dominate the terminals over the next 24 hours.
Only thing to watch will be slow back of the winds overnight as a
trough moves through, with any notable CIGs likely waiting till after
the end of this TAF cycle.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Cutter




000
FXUS63 KSGF 042259
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
459 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 0223 PM CST THU FEB 04 2016

Quiet and dry weather is expected. A sfc ridge of high pressure
will move through tonight and early Friday then shift off to the
east and southeast Friday afternoon. High temperatures should be
a few degrees warmer Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 0223 PM CST THU FEB 04 2016

The main weather impacts will be fire weather at times through
this period and cold/windy weather Mon/Mon night.

A moisture starved shortwave and weak sfc front will move through
the region Fri night with an increase in clouds along with a
chance of sprinkles/flurries for some areas. It will clear from
west to east Saturday. Sunday will remain dry and milder with
southwest winds ahead of the next approaching front. Moderate
fire weather concerns are expected Sunday afternoon, but winds
will likely remain below Red Flag criteria.

A high amplitude upper level pattern with a ridge over along the
west coast of NOAM and a trough in the east will allow cold air to
move south out into the eastern CONUS. Our area will take somewhat
of a glancing blow in terms of the cold air, but it will still be
cloudy, unseasonably cold, and blustery Monday behind a cold
front. We are expecting wind chill values in the single digits
(deg F) Mon night into Tue.

Temperatures will moderate through the midweek period as the cold
air mass moves off to the east. By day 7 (Thu) a return to warmer
than normal temperatures is expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 0457 PM CST THU FEB 04 2016

High pressure both at the surface and aloft tonight will keep a
clear sky in place along with a light surface wind. Another quick
moving shortwave will push into the plains by late in the period
on Friday, but not expecting anything with this feature during
this TAF period.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg



000
FXUS63 KSGF 042259
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
459 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 0223 PM CST THU FEB 04 2016

Quiet and dry weather is expected. A sfc ridge of high pressure
will move through tonight and early Friday then shift off to the
east and southeast Friday afternoon. High temperatures should be
a few degrees warmer Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 0223 PM CST THU FEB 04 2016

The main weather impacts will be fire weather at times through
this period and cold/windy weather Mon/Mon night.

A moisture starved shortwave and weak sfc front will move through
the region Fri night with an increase in clouds along with a
chance of sprinkles/flurries for some areas. It will clear from
west to east Saturday. Sunday will remain dry and milder with
southwest winds ahead of the next approaching front. Moderate
fire weather concerns are expected Sunday afternoon, but winds
will likely remain below Red Flag criteria.

A high amplitude upper level pattern with a ridge over along the
west coast of NOAM and a trough in the east will allow cold air to
move south out into the eastern CONUS. Our area will take somewhat
of a glancing blow in terms of the cold air, but it will still be
cloudy, unseasonably cold, and blustery Monday behind a cold
front. We are expecting wind chill values in the single digits
(deg F) Mon night into Tue.

Temperatures will moderate through the midweek period as the cold
air mass moves off to the east. By day 7 (Thu) a return to warmer
than normal temperatures is expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 0457 PM CST THU FEB 04 2016

High pressure both at the surface and aloft tonight will keep a
clear sky in place along with a light surface wind. Another quick
moving shortwave will push into the plains by late in the period
on Friday, but not expecting anything with this feature during
this TAF period.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg




000
FXUS63 KSGF 042259
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
459 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 0223 PM CST THU FEB 04 2016

Quiet and dry weather is expected. A sfc ridge of high pressure
will move through tonight and early Friday then shift off to the
east and southeast Friday afternoon. High temperatures should be
a few degrees warmer Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 0223 PM CST THU FEB 04 2016

The main weather impacts will be fire weather at times through
this period and cold/windy weather Mon/Mon night.

A moisture starved shortwave and weak sfc front will move through
the region Fri night with an increase in clouds along with a
chance of sprinkles/flurries for some areas. It will clear from
west to east Saturday. Sunday will remain dry and milder with
southwest winds ahead of the next approaching front. Moderate
fire weather concerns are expected Sunday afternoon, but winds
will likely remain below Red Flag criteria.

A high amplitude upper level pattern with a ridge over along the
west coast of NOAM and a trough in the east will allow cold air to
move south out into the eastern CONUS. Our area will take somewhat
of a glancing blow in terms of the cold air, but it will still be
cloudy, unseasonably cold, and blustery Monday behind a cold
front. We are expecting wind chill values in the single digits
(deg F) Mon night into Tue.

Temperatures will moderate through the midweek period as the cold
air mass moves off to the east. By day 7 (Thu) a return to warmer
than normal temperatures is expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 0457 PM CST THU FEB 04 2016

High pressure both at the surface and aloft tonight will keep a
clear sky in place along with a light surface wind. Another quick
moving shortwave will push into the plains by late in the period
on Friday, but not expecting anything with this feature during
this TAF period.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg




000
FXUS63 KEAX 042153
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
353 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Short Term (Tonight - Saturday night):

Lacking a snowstorm to grab one`s attention will have to settle on
watching an elongated upper trough heading our way. Water vapor
satellite imagery shows two vorticity maxima, one near the 4-corners
and the other over southwest MT. Both are tracking southeast and by
process of elimination it`ll be the MT feature that will affect us.
Not expecting much affect on the sensible weather as low level
moisture will be lacking as noted by the dry wedge in the near
surface layer. Do think there will be sufficient mid level warm air
advection to generate a good deal of mid clouds and sufficient top-
down saturation to wring out widely scattered light rain
showers/sprinkles over the southeast 1/2 of the CWA Friday night.
Bufr soundings also suggest presence of ice crystals so can`t rule
out snow mixed in with the rain.

Progressive upstream shortwave ridging aloft won`t allow any cold air
advection to settle in so mild temperatures expected on Saturday
aided by at least partly cloudy skies.

Long Term (Sunday - Thursday):

The upper pattern becomes extremely amplified by early next week
with a very deep and expansive upper trough east of the MO River and
a sharpening upper ridge over the western U.S. While the AO is
trending towards negative it`s hard to say this cold shot is a
result of it warm air advection spreads back into the picture by
Thursday, Wednesday if the more progressive GFS is to be believed.

The brief surge of arctic air is expected to overspread the region
beginning Sunday night as a second upper trough, stronger than Friday
night`s version, dives southeast across the Northern/Central Plains
and MO River Valley. With the Gulf of Mexico not opening up until
the cold front is east of us and the best dynamics also east of us
this system will have to rely on the moisture it brings with it for
any precipitation in our CWA. Believe there will be enough wrung out
for scattered snow showers/flurries Sunday night through Monday.
Seeing the strength of the deepening process with this upper trough
and long fetch on the backside of the surface low am a bit concerned
we are underestimating the strength of cold air advection and thus
the model blend being used may be too warm for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR conditions with little in the way of sensible weather issues.
Modest southwest winds will veer to the northwest early this evening
as weak surface trough moves through. Will see increasing higher
based VFR ceilings tomorrow.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KEAX 042153
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
353 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Short Term (Tonight - Saturday night):

Lacking a snowstorm to grab one`s attention will have to settle on
watching an elongated upper trough heading our way. Water vapor
satellite imagery shows two vorticity maxima, one near the 4-corners
and the other over southwest MT. Both are tracking southeast and by
process of elimination it`ll be the MT feature that will affect us.
Not expecting much affect on the sensible weather as low level
moisture will be lacking as noted by the dry wedge in the near
surface layer. Do think there will be sufficient mid level warm air
advection to generate a good deal of mid clouds and sufficient top-
down saturation to wring out widely scattered light rain
showers/sprinkles over the southeast 1/2 of the CWA Friday night.
Bufr soundings also suggest presence of ice crystals so can`t rule
out snow mixed in with the rain.

Progressive upstream shortwave ridging aloft won`t allow any cold air
advection to settle in so mild temperatures expected on Saturday
aided by at least partly cloudy skies.

Long Term (Sunday - Thursday):

The upper pattern becomes extremely amplified by early next week
with a very deep and expansive upper trough east of the MO River and
a sharpening upper ridge over the western U.S. While the AO is
trending towards negative it`s hard to say this cold shot is a
result of it warm air advection spreads back into the picture by
Thursday, Wednesday if the more progressive GFS is to be believed.

The brief surge of arctic air is expected to overspread the region
beginning Sunday night as a second upper trough, stronger than Friday
night`s version, dives southeast across the Northern/Central Plains
and MO River Valley. With the Gulf of Mexico not opening up until
the cold front is east of us and the best dynamics also east of us
this system will have to rely on the moisture it brings with it for
any precipitation in our CWA. Believe there will be enough wrung out
for scattered snow showers/flurries Sunday night through Monday.
Seeing the strength of the deepening process with this upper trough
and long fetch on the backside of the surface low am a bit concerned
we are underestimating the strength of cold air advection and thus
the model blend being used may be too warm for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR conditions with little in the way of sensible weather issues.
Modest southwest winds will veer to the northwest early this evening
as weak surface trough moves through. Will see increasing higher
based VFR ceilings tomorrow.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KEAX 042153
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
353 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Short Term (Tonight - Saturday night):

Lacking a snowstorm to grab one`s attention will have to settle on
watching an elongated upper trough heading our way. Water vapor
satellite imagery shows two vorticity maxima, one near the 4-corners
and the other over southwest MT. Both are tracking southeast and by
process of elimination it`ll be the MT feature that will affect us.
Not expecting much affect on the sensible weather as low level
moisture will be lacking as noted by the dry wedge in the near
surface layer. Do think there will be sufficient mid level warm air
advection to generate a good deal of mid clouds and sufficient top-
down saturation to wring out widely scattered light rain
showers/sprinkles over the southeast 1/2 of the CWA Friday night.
Bufr soundings also suggest presence of ice crystals so can`t rule
out snow mixed in with the rain.

Progressive upstream shortwave ridging aloft won`t allow any cold air
advection to settle in so mild temperatures expected on Saturday
aided by at least partly cloudy skies.

Long Term (Sunday - Thursday):

The upper pattern becomes extremely amplified by early next week
with a very deep and expansive upper trough east of the MO River and
a sharpening upper ridge over the western U.S. While the AO is
trending towards negative it`s hard to say this cold shot is a
result of it warm air advection spreads back into the picture by
Thursday, Wednesday if the more progressive GFS is to be believed.

The brief surge of arctic air is expected to overspread the region
beginning Sunday night as a second upper trough, stronger than Friday
night`s version, dives southeast across the Northern/Central Plains
and MO River Valley. With the Gulf of Mexico not opening up until
the cold front is east of us and the best dynamics also east of us
this system will have to rely on the moisture it brings with it for
any precipitation in our CWA. Believe there will be enough wrung out
for scattered snow showers/flurries Sunday night through Monday.
Seeing the strength of the deepening process with this upper trough
and long fetch on the backside of the surface low am a bit concerned
we are underestimating the strength of cold air advection and thus
the model blend being used may be too warm for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR conditions with little in the way of sensible weather issues.
Modest southwest winds will veer to the northwest early this evening
as weak surface trough moves through. Will see increasing higher
based VFR ceilings tomorrow.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ



000
FXUS63 KSGF 042052
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
252 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 0223 PM CST THU FEB 04 2016

Quiet and dry weather is expected. A sfc ridge of high pressure
will move through tonight and early Friday then shift off to the
east and southeast Friday afternoon. High temperatures should be
a few degrees warmer Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 0223 PM CST THU FEB 04 2016

The main weather impacts will be fire weather at times through
this period and cold/windy weather Mon/Mon night.

A moisture starved shortwave and weak sfc front will move through
the region Fri night with an increase in clouds along with a
chance of sprinkles/flurries for some areas. It will clear from
west to east Saturday. Sunday will remain dry and milder with
southwest winds ahead of the next approaching front. Moderate
fire weather concerns are expected Sunday afternoon, but winds
will likely remain below Red Flag criteria.

A high amplitude upper level pattern with a ridge over along the
west coast of NOAM and a trough in the east will allow cold air to
move south out into the eastern CONUS. Our area will take somewhat
of a glancing blow in terms of the cold air, but it will still be
cloudy, unseasonably cold, and blustery Monday behind a cold
front. We are expecting wind chill values in the single digits
(deg F) Mon night into Tue.

Temperatures will moderate through the midweek period as the cold
air mass moves off to the east. By day 7 (Thu) a return to warmer
than normal temperatures is expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1116 AM CST THU FEB 04 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected with
high pressure passing over and south of the area and a dry air
mass in place.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...DSA




000
FXUS63 KLSX 042036
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
236 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 219 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2016

The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement that upper trough
currently seen on water vapor over the upper Midwest will rotate
eastward across the Great Lakes tonight. As it does it will cause
its attendant cold front currently over the Dakotas and Minnesota
to dive southeastward across Missouri and Illinois late tonight.
Still do not expect any precipitation with the passage of this
front as the low-mid level moisture is very limited. Temperatures
tonight will easily fall back down to MOS temp guidance with
clear skies and cold air advection behind the cold front.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 219 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2016

Shortwave ridging aloft combined with a surface high pressure
center passing through the ARKLATEX region will ensure quiet wx
conditions across the CWA on Fri. A couple of upstream shortwaves
will move across the central and southern CONUS on Fri night into
Sat, possibly phasing over the south-central CONUS by 12z Sat
depending on which model solution ultimately has the better
handle on the position of the northern vort max. An overall
increase in cloudiness is expected ahead of these features, and a
few locations might see sprinkles or flurries on Fri night or Sat
morning.

A warming trend will continue across the area through Sunday with
highs on Sunday reaching the upper 40s to mid-50s. Thereafter, a
significant change in the upper air pattn will usher in a period
of much colder temperatures for at least the early and middle
part of next week due to periodic intrusions of Arctic air
masses. Overnight lows in the teens and 20s are expected on
Monday night and Tuesday night.

A vigorous shortwave is forecast to move onshore near WA/OR
around 06z Sat. RAOB sampling may not occur until 12z Sat. After
this feature crosses the Rockies, it then dives southeastward
into the plains and western Great Lakes. Meanwhile, an amplifying
ridge over the west coast induces a downstream trough over the
eastern half of the CONUS, which is then reinforced by the
aforementioned shortwave as well as several additional shortwaves
diving southward out of Canada during the early part of next week.
Ultimately, a large closed low should settle somewhere over the
Great Lakes region and upper Ohio valley for the first half of
next week.

The next opportunity for widespread precipitation will occur
from Sunday night through Monday night with the initial approach
of the aforementioned vigorous shortwave. Attm it looks like a
straightforward RA/SN mix (depending on the thermal profile at any
given location) transitioning to light snow due to the increasing
depth of cold air. Decent H7-H5 lapse rates, cyclonic flow, and
synoptic scale lift support the idea of isolated to scattered
instability snow showers on Monday on the back side of the newly
stacked upper low. A similar scenario is anticipated on Tuesday,
although by that time the upper low will have shifted just far
enough eastward to confine precip chances to the easternmost
portion of the CWA.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2016

Dry and VFR conditions are expected through the period. A series
of fronts moving through the area will cause some minor wind
shifts at the terminals.

Specifics for KSTL: Dry and VFR conditions are expected through
the TAF period.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 041831
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1231 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 252 AM CST Thu Feb 4 2016

Low level cloudiness across southwest IL into the St Louis metro
area will continue to advect eastward out of our forecast area
later this morning. Despite plenty of solar insolation today
temperatures will be relatively cold again, although close to
seasonal normals for early February, as a deep upper level trough
moves eastward through the region. Surface winds will not be strong
and gusty like yesterday with surface ridging extending from the
southern Plains into MO.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 AM CST Thu Feb 4 2016

A warming trend will begin on Friday and continue through Sunday.
An upper level trough and associated weak surface trough will move
eastward through our area Friday night and Saturday morning. There
may be patchy light rain or light snow ahead of this feature,
mainly late Friday night, but no accumulation is expected as
moisture will be quite limited. A cold front will move eastward
through our area on Sunday as a deepening upper level trough moves
eastward through the northern Plains and into the Great Lakes
region. This will put an end to the warming trend and lead to much
colder temperatures for Monday through Wednesday.  There will be
the potential for light snow/snow showers mainly Monday and Monday
night as the upper level low/trough deepens over the Great Lakes
region with northwest flow shortwaves dropping through our area
on the backside of the deep trough. Temperatures will be below
seasonal normals Monday through Wednesday as the models forecast
the 850 mb temperatures to fall to around -16 degrees C over much
of our area.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2016

Dry and VFR conditions are expected through the period. A series
of fronts moving through the area will cause some minor wind
shifts at the terminals.

Specifics for KSTL: Dry and VFR conditions are expected through
the TAF period.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 041831
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1231 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 252 AM CST Thu Feb 4 2016

Low level cloudiness across southwest IL into the St Louis metro
area will continue to advect eastward out of our forecast area
later this morning. Despite plenty of solar insolation today
temperatures will be relatively cold again, although close to
seasonal normals for early February, as a deep upper level trough
moves eastward through the region. Surface winds will not be strong
and gusty like yesterday with surface ridging extending from the
southern Plains into MO.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 AM CST Thu Feb 4 2016

A warming trend will begin on Friday and continue through Sunday.
An upper level trough and associated weak surface trough will move
eastward through our area Friday night and Saturday morning. There
may be patchy light rain or light snow ahead of this feature,
mainly late Friday night, but no accumulation is expected as
moisture will be quite limited. A cold front will move eastward
through our area on Sunday as a deepening upper level trough moves
eastward through the northern Plains and into the Great Lakes
region. This will put an end to the warming trend and lead to much
colder temperatures for Monday through Wednesday.  There will be
the potential for light snow/snow showers mainly Monday and Monday
night as the upper level low/trough deepens over the Great Lakes
region with northwest flow shortwaves dropping through our area
on the backside of the deep trough. Temperatures will be below
seasonal normals Monday through Wednesday as the models forecast
the 850 mb temperatures to fall to around -16 degrees C over much
of our area.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2016

Dry and VFR conditions are expected through the period. A series
of fronts moving through the area will cause some minor wind
shifts at the terminals.

Specifics for KSTL: Dry and VFR conditions are expected through
the TAF period.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 041831
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1231 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 252 AM CST Thu Feb 4 2016

Low level cloudiness across southwest IL into the St Louis metro
area will continue to advect eastward out of our forecast area
later this morning. Despite plenty of solar insolation today
temperatures will be relatively cold again, although close to
seasonal normals for early February, as a deep upper level trough
moves eastward through the region. Surface winds will not be strong
and gusty like yesterday with surface ridging extending from the
southern Plains into MO.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 AM CST Thu Feb 4 2016

A warming trend will begin on Friday and continue through Sunday.
An upper level trough and associated weak surface trough will move
eastward through our area Friday night and Saturday morning. There
may be patchy light rain or light snow ahead of this feature,
mainly late Friday night, but no accumulation is expected as
moisture will be quite limited. A cold front will move eastward
through our area on Sunday as a deepening upper level trough moves
eastward through the northern Plains and into the Great Lakes
region. This will put an end to the warming trend and lead to much
colder temperatures for Monday through Wednesday.  There will be
the potential for light snow/snow showers mainly Monday and Monday
night as the upper level low/trough deepens over the Great Lakes
region with northwest flow shortwaves dropping through our area
on the backside of the deep trough. Temperatures will be below
seasonal normals Monday through Wednesday as the models forecast
the 850 mb temperatures to fall to around -16 degrees C over much
of our area.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2016

Dry and VFR conditions are expected through the period. A series
of fronts moving through the area will cause some minor wind
shifts at the terminals.

Specifics for KSTL: Dry and VFR conditions are expected through
the TAF period.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KEAX 041741
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1141 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Short Term (Today - Saturday night):

The short term looks mild and mostly dry with no major hazards. The
coldest temperatures we`ll experience through this period will occur
as you head out this morning with temperatures starting out in the
mid teens to lower 20s. A weak upper level trough moving quickly
through the Upper Midwest today will force a weak cold front through
the area late in the day. However, out ahead of the front, a return
to southwest winds will help temperatures warm into the upper 30s to
mid 40s. Surface high pressure will build into the area tonight
allowing for light winds and clear skies which will provide for good
radiational cooling. Temperatures will fall into the upper teens to
mid 20s. Friday, shortwave ridging out ahead of a progressive
shortwave trough digging into the Central Plains coupled with a
return to southerly flow will allow highs to rise into the upper 30s
to upper 40s. The best chance for precipitation in the short tern
will come Friday night as the aforementioned shortwave forces a cold
front through the area. Moisture will be meager with this system
however, models suggest there is a slight chance for light rain or
snow across the southern CWA. A surface ridge of high pressure will
build back into the area Saturday behind the departing trough.
Height rises will help allow temperatures rise into the 40s on
Saturday.

Extended Range (Sunday - Wednesday):

The extended forecast period will feature a drastic pattern change
bringing colder temperatures to the area as well as the chance for
some light snow. This pattern change will begin on Sunday as an
upper level trough digs south through the Upper Midwest into the
Ohio River Valley by Monday. As this trough digs southward it will
force a cold front through the area late in the day Sunday/Sunday
night. Moisture will again be meager with this system however, it
should be sufficient enough to produce light snow. The eastern CWA
will have the best chance of receiving snow as well as light
accumulations. On Monday, a secondary arctic front will push through
the area bringing another chance for light snow to the area as well
as much cooler temperatures. Highs on Monday will be in the 30s. By
Tuesday, the pattern across the CONUS becomes highly amplified with
ridging over the western CONUS and troughing over the east. The
local area will be in between under strong northwest flow aloft
which will help bringing much colder temperatures to the area. Highs
on Tuesday will struggle to get out of the 20s with only slightly
warmer temperatures expected for Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR conditions with little in the way of sensible weather issues.
Modest southwest winds will veer to the northwest early this evening
as weak surface trough moves through. Will see increasing higher
based VFR ceilings tomorrow.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KEAX 041741
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1141 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Short Term (Today - Saturday night):

The short term looks mild and mostly dry with no major hazards. The
coldest temperatures we`ll experience through this period will occur
as you head out this morning with temperatures starting out in the
mid teens to lower 20s. A weak upper level trough moving quickly
through the Upper Midwest today will force a weak cold front through
the area late in the day. However, out ahead of the front, a return
to southwest winds will help temperatures warm into the upper 30s to
mid 40s. Surface high pressure will build into the area tonight
allowing for light winds and clear skies which will provide for good
radiational cooling. Temperatures will fall into the upper teens to
mid 20s. Friday, shortwave ridging out ahead of a progressive
shortwave trough digging into the Central Plains coupled with a
return to southerly flow will allow highs to rise into the upper 30s
to upper 40s. The best chance for precipitation in the short tern
will come Friday night as the aforementioned shortwave forces a cold
front through the area. Moisture will be meager with this system
however, models suggest there is a slight chance for light rain or
snow across the southern CWA. A surface ridge of high pressure will
build back into the area Saturday behind the departing trough.
Height rises will help allow temperatures rise into the 40s on
Saturday.

Extended Range (Sunday - Wednesday):

The extended forecast period will feature a drastic pattern change
bringing colder temperatures to the area as well as the chance for
some light snow. This pattern change will begin on Sunday as an
upper level trough digs south through the Upper Midwest into the
Ohio River Valley by Monday. As this trough digs southward it will
force a cold front through the area late in the day Sunday/Sunday
night. Moisture will again be meager with this system however, it
should be sufficient enough to produce light snow. The eastern CWA
will have the best chance of receiving snow as well as light
accumulations. On Monday, a secondary arctic front will push through
the area bringing another chance for light snow to the area as well
as much cooler temperatures. Highs on Monday will be in the 30s. By
Tuesday, the pattern across the CONUS becomes highly amplified with
ridging over the western CONUS and troughing over the east. The
local area will be in between under strong northwest flow aloft
which will help bringing much colder temperatures to the area. Highs
on Tuesday will struggle to get out of the 20s with only slightly
warmer temperatures expected for Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR conditions with little in the way of sensible weather issues.
Modest southwest winds will veer to the northwest early this evening
as weak surface trough moves through. Will see increasing higher
based VFR ceilings tomorrow.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KEAX 041741
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1141 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Short Term (Today - Saturday night):

The short term looks mild and mostly dry with no major hazards. The
coldest temperatures we`ll experience through this period will occur
as you head out this morning with temperatures starting out in the
mid teens to lower 20s. A weak upper level trough moving quickly
through the Upper Midwest today will force a weak cold front through
the area late in the day. However, out ahead of the front, a return
to southwest winds will help temperatures warm into the upper 30s to
mid 40s. Surface high pressure will build into the area tonight
allowing for light winds and clear skies which will provide for good
radiational cooling. Temperatures will fall into the upper teens to
mid 20s. Friday, shortwave ridging out ahead of a progressive
shortwave trough digging into the Central Plains coupled with a
return to southerly flow will allow highs to rise into the upper 30s
to upper 40s. The best chance for precipitation in the short tern
will come Friday night as the aforementioned shortwave forces a cold
front through the area. Moisture will be meager with this system
however, models suggest there is a slight chance for light rain or
snow across the southern CWA. A surface ridge of high pressure will
build back into the area Saturday behind the departing trough.
Height rises will help allow temperatures rise into the 40s on
Saturday.

Extended Range (Sunday - Wednesday):

The extended forecast period will feature a drastic pattern change
bringing colder temperatures to the area as well as the chance for
some light snow. This pattern change will begin on Sunday as an
upper level trough digs south through the Upper Midwest into the
Ohio River Valley by Monday. As this trough digs southward it will
force a cold front through the area late in the day Sunday/Sunday
night. Moisture will again be meager with this system however, it
should be sufficient enough to produce light snow. The eastern CWA
will have the best chance of receiving snow as well as light
accumulations. On Monday, a secondary arctic front will push through
the area bringing another chance for light snow to the area as well
as much cooler temperatures. Highs on Monday will be in the 30s. By
Tuesday, the pattern across the CONUS becomes highly amplified with
ridging over the western CONUS and troughing over the east. The
local area will be in between under strong northwest flow aloft
which will help bringing much colder temperatures to the area. Highs
on Tuesday will struggle to get out of the 20s with only slightly
warmer temperatures expected for Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR conditions with little in the way of sensible weather issues.
Modest southwest winds will veer to the northwest early this evening
as weak surface trough moves through. Will see increasing higher
based VFR ceilings tomorrow.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...MJ



000
FXUS63 KSGF 041720
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
1120 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CST THU FEB 04 2016

Skies have finally cleared as surface high pressure builds into
the region from the west. The end result is a seasonable morning
across the region with temperatures currently in the 20s.
Temperatures will likely not bottom out given a northwest breeze,
with temperatures dropping to a few degrees either side of 20 by
daybreak. Wind chill values will be well into the teens.

High confidence forecast through the upcoming weekend as we
continue on a temperature roller coaster ride. Full sunshine will
allow for a decent diurnal rebound today with highs in the 40s.
Will need to watch dewpoints this afternoon as they will likely
mix out to around 10F along/southeast of Plateau (possibly
lower). This will result in relative humidity values in the 20s.
Wind speeds will be low enough to preclude a more substantive
fire weather concern. Another night of near average temperatures
is expected tonight with clouds increasing late.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 AM CST THU FEB 04 2016

The temperature roller coaster ride will continue into the
weekend with readings running a good 5-10 degrees above average.
A weak cold front will move through the region Friday night
presenting a chance for a few sprinkles or flurries. No
precipitation is expected this weekend.

A more substantial cold front will surge through the region on
Sunday, delivering a much colder airmass to the region. Run to run
and inter model/ensemble consistency remains very good with this
cold snap, resulting in a moderate to high confidence forecast.
Well below average temperatures are expected early next week, with
low chances for the occasional light snow shower/flurry. Overall,
the atmosphere looks to be rather moisture starved, limiting our
precipitation potential.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1116 AM CST THU FEB 04 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected with
high pressure passing over and south of the area and a dry air
mass in place.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...DSA




000
FXUS63 KLSX 041127
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
527 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 252 AM CST Thu Feb 4 2016

Low level cloudiness across southwest IL into the St Louis metro
area will continue to advect eastward out of our forecast area
later this morning. Despite plenty of solar insolation today
temperatures will be relatively cold again, although close to
seasonal normals for early February, as a deep upper level trough
moves eastward through the region. Surface winds will not be strong
and gusty like yesterday with surface ridging extending from the
southern Plains into MO.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 AM CST Thu Feb 4 2016

A warming trend will begin on Friday and continue through Sunday.
An upper level trough and associated weak surface trough will move
eastward through our area Friday night and Saturday morning. There
may be patchy light rain or light snow ahead of this feature,
mainly late Friday night, but no accumulation is expected as
moisture will be quite limited. A cold front will move eastward
through our area on Sunday as a deepening upper level trough moves
eastward through the northern Plains and into the Great Lakes
region. This will put an end to the warming trend and lead to much
colder temperatures for Monday through Wednesday.  There will be
the potential for light snow/snow showers mainly Monday and Monday
night as the upper level low/trough deepens over the Great Lakes
region with northwest flow shortwaves dropping through our area
on the backside of the deep trough. Temperatures will be below
seasonal normals Monday through Wednesday as the models forecast
the 850 mb temperatures to fall to around -16 degrees C over much
of our area.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 523 AM CST Thu Feb 4 2016

Cloud deck with ceilings around 3500 ft will clear the area to the
east by mid morning. Northwest flow will turn to the west and
southwest this afternoon and evening as the ridge axis moves east
of the area.

Specifics for KSTL:

Remaining clouds will scatter and clear shortly after 12Z. Expect
northwest wind to become westerly this afternoon and continue to
turn to the southwest this evening.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KEAX 041121
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
521 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Short Term (Today - Saturday night):

The short term looks mild and mostly dry with no major hazards. The
coldest temperatures we`ll experience through this period will occur
as you head out this morning with temperatures starting out in the
mid teens to lower 20s. A weak upper level trough moving quickly
through the Upper Midwest today will force a weak cold front through
the area late in the day. However, out ahead of the front, a return
to southwest winds will help temperatures warm into the upper 30s to
mid 40s. Surface high pressure will build into the area tonight
allowing for light winds and clear skies which will provide for good
radiational cooling. Temperatures will fall into the upper teens to
mid 20s. Friday, shortwave ridging out ahead of a progressive
shortwave trough digging into the Central Plains coupled with a
return to southerly flow will allow highs to rise into the upper 30s
to upper 40s. The best chance for precipitation in the short tern
will come Friday night as the aforementioned shortwave forces a cold
front through the area. Moisture will be meager with this system
however, models suggest there is a slight chance for light rain or
snow across the southern CWA. A surface ridge of high pressure will
build back into the area Saturday behind the departing trough.
Height rises will help allow temperatures rise into the 40s on
Saturday.

Extended Range (Sunday - Wednesday):

The extended forecast period will feature a drastic pattern change
bringing colder temperatures to the area as well as the chance for
some light snow. This pattern change will begin on Sunday as an
upper level trough digs south through the Upper Midwest into the
Ohio River Valley by Monday. As this trough digs southward it will
force a cold front through the area late in the day Sunday/Sunday
night. Moisture will again be meager with this system however, it
should be sufficient enough to produce light snow. The eastern CWA
will have the best chance of receiving snow as well as light
accumulations. On Monday, a secondary arctic front will push through
the area bringing another chance for light snow to the area as well
as much cooler temperatures. Highs on Monday will be in the 30s. By
Tuesday, the pattern across the CONUS becomes highly amplified with
ridging over the western CONUS and troughing over the east. The
local area will be in between under strong northwest flow aloft
which will help bringing much colder temperatures to the area. Highs
on Tuesday will struggle to get out of the 20s with only slightly
warmer temperatures expected for Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 521 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR conds will cont thru the TAF pd as mostly clr skies ae expected
today with just some sct high clouds tonight. Winds will be out of
the SW this morning btn 5-10kts before veering to the WSW this
afternoon and increasing to 10-15kts. A weak cold front will move
through the terminals btn 22Z-00Z veering winds to the WNW btn
5-10kts this evening before winds become lgt and vrb tonight.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73




000
FXUS63 KSGF 041110
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
510 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

...12z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CST THU FEB 04 2016

Skies have finally cleared as surface high pressure builds into
the region from the west. The end result is a seasonable morning
across the region with temperatures currently in the 20s.
Temperatures will likely not bottom out given a northwest breeze,
with temperatures dropping to a few degrees either side of 20 by
daybreak. Wind chill values will be well into the teens.

High confidence forecast through the upcoming weekend as we
continue on a temperature roller coaster ride. Full sunshine will
allow for a decent diurnal rebound today with highs in the 40s.
Will need to watch dewpoints this afternoon as they will likely
mix out to around 10F along/southeast of Plateau (possibly
lower). This will result in relative humidity values in the 20s.
Wind speeds will be low enough to preclude a more substantive
fire weather concern. Another night of near average temperatures
is expected tonight with clouds increasing late.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 AM CST THU FEB 04 2016

The temperature roller coaster ride will continue into the
weekend with readings running a good 5-10 degrees above average.
A weak cold front will move through the region Friday night
presenting a chance for a few sprinkles or flurries. No
precipitation is expected this weekend.

A more substantial cold front will surge through the region on
Sunday, delivering a much colder airmass to the region. Run to run
and inter model/ensemble consistency remains very good with this
cold snap, resulting in a moderate to high confidence forecast.
Well below average temperatures are expected early next week, with
low chances for the occasional light snow shower/flurry. Overall,
the atmosphere looks to be rather moisture starved, limiting our
precipitation potential.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 0509 AM CST THU FEB 04 2016

Pilots flying in and out of the Missouri Ozarks region can expect
great flying conditions with VFR through the next 24 hours. Clear
skies and light westerly to southwesterly winds under 10 knots can
be expected.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Griffin




000
FXUS63 KLSX 041014
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
414 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 252 AM CST Thu Feb 4 2016

Low level cloudiness across southwest IL into the St Louis metro
area will continue to advect eastward out of our forecast area
later this morning. Despite plenty of solar insolation today
temperatures will be relatively cold again, although close to
seasonal normals for early February, as a deep upper level trough
moves eastward through the region. Surface winds will not be strong
and gusty like yesterday with surface ridging extending from the
southern Plains into MO.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 AM CST Thu Feb 4 2016

A warming trend will begin on Friday and continue through Sunday.
An upper level trough and associated weak surface trough will move
eastward through our area Friday night and Saturday morning. There
may be patchy light rain or light snow ahead of this feature,
mainly late Friday night, but no accumulation is expected as
moisture will be quite limited. A cold front will move eastward
through our area on Sunday as a deepening upper level trough moves
eastward through the northern Plains and into the Great Lakes
region. This will put an end to the warming trend and lead to much
colder temperatures for Monday through Wednesday.  There will be
the potential for light snow/snow showers mainly Monday and Monday
night as the upper level low/trough deepens over the Great Lakes
region with northwest flow shortwaves dropping through our area
on the backside of the deep trough. Temperatures will be below
seasonal normals Monday through Wednesday as the models forecast
the 850 mb temperatures to fall to around -16 degrees C over much
of our area.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 538 PM CST Wed Feb 3 2016

Deck of MVFR cigs continues to move swd this evening. Main
forecast question will be how much the nrn flank of the deck
dissipates this evening. Have pushed back timing of VFR slightly
as well as clearing. This is perhaps a more pessimistic forecast.
Otherwise, winds will diminish this evening and gradually back
Thurs morning and thru the afternoon. VFR conditions are expected
thru the forecast period once clouds move S of terminals.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 041014
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
414 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 252 AM CST Thu Feb 4 2016

Low level cloudiness across southwest IL into the St Louis metro
area will continue to advect eastward out of our forecast area
later this morning. Despite plenty of solar insolation today
temperatures will be relatively cold again, although close to
seasonal normals for early February, as a deep upper level trough
moves eastward through the region. Surface winds will not be strong
and gusty like yesterday with surface ridging extending from the
southern Plains into MO.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 AM CST Thu Feb 4 2016

A warming trend will begin on Friday and continue through Sunday.
An upper level trough and associated weak surface trough will move
eastward through our area Friday night and Saturday morning. There
may be patchy light rain or light snow ahead of this feature,
mainly late Friday night, but no accumulation is expected as
moisture will be quite limited. A cold front will move eastward
through our area on Sunday as a deepening upper level trough moves
eastward through the northern Plains and into the Great Lakes
region. This will put an end to the warming trend and lead to much
colder temperatures for Monday through Wednesday.  There will be
the potential for light snow/snow showers mainly Monday and Monday
night as the upper level low/trough deepens over the Great Lakes
region with northwest flow shortwaves dropping through our area
on the backside of the deep trough. Temperatures will be below
seasonal normals Monday through Wednesday as the models forecast
the 850 mb temperatures to fall to around -16 degrees C over much
of our area.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 538 PM CST Wed Feb 3 2016

Deck of MVFR cigs continues to move swd this evening. Main
forecast question will be how much the nrn flank of the deck
dissipates this evening. Have pushed back timing of VFR slightly
as well as clearing. This is perhaps a more pessimistic forecast.
Otherwise, winds will diminish this evening and gradually back
Thurs morning and thru the afternoon. VFR conditions are expected
thru the forecast period once clouds move S of terminals.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 041014
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
414 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 252 AM CST Thu Feb 4 2016

Low level cloudiness across southwest IL into the St Louis metro
area will continue to advect eastward out of our forecast area
later this morning. Despite plenty of solar insolation today
temperatures will be relatively cold again, although close to
seasonal normals for early February, as a deep upper level trough
moves eastward through the region. Surface winds will not be strong
and gusty like yesterday with surface ridging extending from the
southern Plains into MO.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 AM CST Thu Feb 4 2016

A warming trend will begin on Friday and continue through Sunday.
An upper level trough and associated weak surface trough will move
eastward through our area Friday night and Saturday morning. There
may be patchy light rain or light snow ahead of this feature,
mainly late Friday night, but no accumulation is expected as
moisture will be quite limited. A cold front will move eastward
through our area on Sunday as a deepening upper level trough moves
eastward through the northern Plains and into the Great Lakes
region. This will put an end to the warming trend and lead to much
colder temperatures for Monday through Wednesday.  There will be
the potential for light snow/snow showers mainly Monday and Monday
night as the upper level low/trough deepens over the Great Lakes
region with northwest flow shortwaves dropping through our area
on the backside of the deep trough. Temperatures will be below
seasonal normals Monday through Wednesday as the models forecast
the 850 mb temperatures to fall to around -16 degrees C over much
of our area.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 538 PM CST Wed Feb 3 2016

Deck of MVFR cigs continues to move swd this evening. Main
forecast question will be how much the nrn flank of the deck
dissipates this evening. Have pushed back timing of VFR slightly
as well as clearing. This is perhaps a more pessimistic forecast.
Otherwise, winds will diminish this evening and gradually back
Thurs morning and thru the afternoon. VFR conditions are expected
thru the forecast period once clouds move S of terminals.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KEAX 040901
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
301 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Short Term (Today - Saturday night):

The short term looks mild and mostly dry with no major hazards. The
coldest temperatures we`ll experience through this period will occur
as you head out this morning with temperatures starting out in the
mid teens to lower 20s. A weak upper level trough moving quickly
through the Upper Midwest today will force a weak cold front through
the area late in the day. However, out ahead of the front, a return
to southwest winds will help temperatures warm into the upper 30s to
mid 40s. Surface high pressure will build into the area tonight
allowing for light winds and clear skies which will provide for good
radiational cooling. Temperatures will fall into the upper teens to
mid 20s. Friday, shortwave ridging out ahead of a progressive
shortwave trough digging into the Central Plains coupled with a
return to southerly flow will allow highs to rise into the upper 30s
to upper 40s. The best chance for precipitation in the short tern
will come Friday night as the aforementioned shortwave forces a cold
front through the area. Moisture will be meager with this system
however, models suggest there is a slight chance for light rain or
snow across the southern CWA. A surface ridge of high pressure will
build back into the area Saturday behind the departing trough.
Height rises will help allow temperatures rise into the 40s on
Saturday.

Extended Range (Sunday - Wednesday):

The extended forecast period will feature a drastic pattern change
bringing colder temperatures to the area as well as the chance for
some light snow. This pattern change will begin on Sunday as an
upper level trough digs south through the Upper Midwest into the
Ohio River Valley by Monday. As this trough digs southward it will
force a cold front through the area late in the day Sunday/Sunday
night. Moisture will again be meager with this system however, it
should be sufficient enough to produce light snow. The eastern CWA
will have the best chance of receiving snow as well as light
accumulations. On Monday, a secondary arctic front will push through
the area bringing another chance for light snow to the area as well
as much cooler temperatures. Highs on Monday will be in the 30s. By
Tuesday, the pattern across the CONUS becomes highly amplified with
ridging over the western CONUS and troughing over the east. The
local area will be in between under strong northwest flow aloft
which will help bringing much colder temperatures to the area. Highs
on Tuesday will struggle to get out of the 20s with only slightly
warmer temperatures expected for Wednesday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all the terminals across
northwestern Missouri through the next 24 hours. Otherwise, winds
will back a little overnight to the southwest.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Cutter




000
FXUS63 KEAX 040901
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
301 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Short Term (Today - Saturday night):

The short term looks mild and mostly dry with no major hazards. The
coldest temperatures we`ll experience through this period will occur
as you head out this morning with temperatures starting out in the
mid teens to lower 20s. A weak upper level trough moving quickly
through the Upper Midwest today will force a weak cold front through
the area late in the day. However, out ahead of the front, a return
to southwest winds will help temperatures warm into the upper 30s to
mid 40s. Surface high pressure will build into the area tonight
allowing for light winds and clear skies which will provide for good
radiational cooling. Temperatures will fall into the upper teens to
mid 20s. Friday, shortwave ridging out ahead of a progressive
shortwave trough digging into the Central Plains coupled with a
return to southerly flow will allow highs to rise into the upper 30s
to upper 40s. The best chance for precipitation in the short tern
will come Friday night as the aforementioned shortwave forces a cold
front through the area. Moisture will be meager with this system
however, models suggest there is a slight chance for light rain or
snow across the southern CWA. A surface ridge of high pressure will
build back into the area Saturday behind the departing trough.
Height rises will help allow temperatures rise into the 40s on
Saturday.

Extended Range (Sunday - Wednesday):

The extended forecast period will feature a drastic pattern change
bringing colder temperatures to the area as well as the chance for
some light snow. This pattern change will begin on Sunday as an
upper level trough digs south through the Upper Midwest into the
Ohio River Valley by Monday. As this trough digs southward it will
force a cold front through the area late in the day Sunday/Sunday
night. Moisture will again be meager with this system however, it
should be sufficient enough to produce light snow. The eastern CWA
will have the best chance of receiving snow as well as light
accumulations. On Monday, a secondary arctic front will push through
the area bringing another chance for light snow to the area as well
as much cooler temperatures. Highs on Monday will be in the 30s. By
Tuesday, the pattern across the CONUS becomes highly amplified with
ridging over the western CONUS and troughing over the east. The
local area will be in between under strong northwest flow aloft
which will help bringing much colder temperatures to the area. Highs
on Tuesday will struggle to get out of the 20s with only slightly
warmer temperatures expected for Wednesday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all the terminals across
northwestern Missouri through the next 24 hours. Otherwise, winds
will back a little overnight to the southwest.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Cutter




000
FXUS63 KEAX 040901
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
301 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Short Term (Today - Saturday night):

The short term looks mild and mostly dry with no major hazards. The
coldest temperatures we`ll experience through this period will occur
as you head out this morning with temperatures starting out in the
mid teens to lower 20s. A weak upper level trough moving quickly
through the Upper Midwest today will force a weak cold front through
the area late in the day. However, out ahead of the front, a return
to southwest winds will help temperatures warm into the upper 30s to
mid 40s. Surface high pressure will build into the area tonight
allowing for light winds and clear skies which will provide for good
radiational cooling. Temperatures will fall into the upper teens to
mid 20s. Friday, shortwave ridging out ahead of a progressive
shortwave trough digging into the Central Plains coupled with a
return to southerly flow will allow highs to rise into the upper 30s
to upper 40s. The best chance for precipitation in the short tern
will come Friday night as the aforementioned shortwave forces a cold
front through the area. Moisture will be meager with this system
however, models suggest there is a slight chance for light rain or
snow across the southern CWA. A surface ridge of high pressure will
build back into the area Saturday behind the departing trough.
Height rises will help allow temperatures rise into the 40s on
Saturday.

Extended Range (Sunday - Wednesday):

The extended forecast period will feature a drastic pattern change
bringing colder temperatures to the area as well as the chance for
some light snow. This pattern change will begin on Sunday as an
upper level trough digs south through the Upper Midwest into the
Ohio River Valley by Monday. As this trough digs southward it will
force a cold front through the area late in the day Sunday/Sunday
night. Moisture will again be meager with this system however, it
should be sufficient enough to produce light snow. The eastern CWA
will have the best chance of receiving snow as well as light
accumulations. On Monday, a secondary arctic front will push through
the area bringing another chance for light snow to the area as well
as much cooler temperatures. Highs on Monday will be in the 30s. By
Tuesday, the pattern across the CONUS becomes highly amplified with
ridging over the western CONUS and troughing over the east. The
local area will be in between under strong northwest flow aloft
which will help bringing much colder temperatures to the area. Highs
on Tuesday will struggle to get out of the 20s with only slightly
warmer temperatures expected for Wednesday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all the terminals across
northwestern Missouri through the next 24 hours. Otherwise, winds
will back a little overnight to the southwest.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Cutter




000
FXUS63 KEAX 040901
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
301 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Short Term (Today - Saturday night):

The short term looks mild and mostly dry with no major hazards. The
coldest temperatures we`ll experience through this period will occur
as you head out this morning with temperatures starting out in the
mid teens to lower 20s. A weak upper level trough moving quickly
through the Upper Midwest today will force a weak cold front through
the area late in the day. However, out ahead of the front, a return
to southwest winds will help temperatures warm into the upper 30s to
mid 40s. Surface high pressure will build into the area tonight
allowing for light winds and clear skies which will provide for good
radiational cooling. Temperatures will fall into the upper teens to
mid 20s. Friday, shortwave ridging out ahead of a progressive
shortwave trough digging into the Central Plains coupled with a
return to southerly flow will allow highs to rise into the upper 30s
to upper 40s. The best chance for precipitation in the short tern
will come Friday night as the aforementioned shortwave forces a cold
front through the area. Moisture will be meager with this system
however, models suggest there is a slight chance for light rain or
snow across the southern CWA. A surface ridge of high pressure will
build back into the area Saturday behind the departing trough.
Height rises will help allow temperatures rise into the 40s on
Saturday.

Extended Range (Sunday - Wednesday):

The extended forecast period will feature a drastic pattern change
bringing colder temperatures to the area as well as the chance for
some light snow. This pattern change will begin on Sunday as an
upper level trough digs south through the Upper Midwest into the
Ohio River Valley by Monday. As this trough digs southward it will
force a cold front through the area late in the day Sunday/Sunday
night. Moisture will again be meager with this system however, it
should be sufficient enough to produce light snow. The eastern CWA
will have the best chance of receiving snow as well as light
accumulations. On Monday, a secondary arctic front will push through
the area bringing another chance for light snow to the area as well
as much cooler temperatures. Highs on Monday will be in the 30s. By
Tuesday, the pattern across the CONUS becomes highly amplified with
ridging over the western CONUS and troughing over the east. The
local area will be in between under strong northwest flow aloft
which will help bringing much colder temperatures to the area. Highs
on Tuesday will struggle to get out of the 20s with only slightly
warmer temperatures expected for Wednesday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all the terminals across
northwestern Missouri through the next 24 hours. Otherwise, winds
will back a little overnight to the southwest.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Cutter




000
FXUS63 KEAX 040901
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
301 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Short Term (Today - Saturday night):

The short term looks mild and mostly dry with no major hazards. The
coldest temperatures we`ll experience through this period will occur
as you head out this morning with temperatures starting out in the
mid teens to lower 20s. A weak upper level trough moving quickly
through the Upper Midwest today will force a weak cold front through
the area late in the day. However, out ahead of the front, a return
to southwest winds will help temperatures warm into the upper 30s to
mid 40s. Surface high pressure will build into the area tonight
allowing for light winds and clear skies which will provide for good
radiational cooling. Temperatures will fall into the upper teens to
mid 20s. Friday, shortwave ridging out ahead of a progressive
shortwave trough digging into the Central Plains coupled with a
return to southerly flow will allow highs to rise into the upper 30s
to upper 40s. The best chance for precipitation in the short tern
will come Friday night as the aforementioned shortwave forces a cold
front through the area. Moisture will be meager with this system
however, models suggest there is a slight chance for light rain or
snow across the southern CWA. A surface ridge of high pressure will
build back into the area Saturday behind the departing trough.
Height rises will help allow temperatures rise into the 40s on
Saturday.

Extended Range (Sunday - Wednesday):

The extended forecast period will feature a drastic pattern change
bringing colder temperatures to the area as well as the chance for
some light snow. This pattern change will begin on Sunday as an
upper level trough digs south through the Upper Midwest into the
Ohio River Valley by Monday. As this trough digs southward it will
force a cold front through the area late in the day Sunday/Sunday
night. Moisture will again be meager with this system however, it
should be sufficient enough to produce light snow. The eastern CWA
will have the best chance of receiving snow as well as light
accumulations. On Monday, a secondary arctic front will push through
the area bringing another chance for light snow to the area as well
as much cooler temperatures. Highs on Monday will be in the 30s. By
Tuesday, the pattern across the CONUS becomes highly amplified with
ridging over the western CONUS and troughing over the east. The
local area will be in between under strong northwest flow aloft
which will help bringing much colder temperatures to the area. Highs
on Tuesday will struggle to get out of the 20s with only slightly
warmer temperatures expected for Wednesday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all the terminals across
northwestern Missouri through the next 24 hours. Otherwise, winds
will back a little overnight to the southwest.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Cutter




000
FXUS63 KSGF 040834
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
234 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CST THU FEB 04 2016

Skies have finally cleared as surface high pressure builds into
the region from the west. The end result is a seasonable morning
across the region with temperatures currently in the 20s.
Temperatures will likely not bottom out given a northwest breeze,
with temperatures dropping to a few degrees either side of 20 by
daybreak. Wind chill values will be well into the teens.

High confidence forecast through the upcoming weekend as we
continue on a temperature roller coaster ride. Full sunshine will
allow for a decent diurnal rebound today with highs in the 40s.
Will need to watch dewpoints this afternoon as they will likely
mix out to around 10F along/southeast of Plateau (possibly
lower). This will result in relative humidity values in the 20s.
Wind speeds will be low enough to preclude a more substantive
fire weather concern. Another night of near average temperatures
is expected tonight with clouds increasing late.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 AM CST THU FEB 04 2016

The temperature roller coaster ride will continue into the
weekend with readings running a good 5-10 degrees above average.
A weak cold front will move through the region Friday night
presenting a chance for a few sprinkles or flurries. No
precipitation is expected this weekend.

A more substantial cold front will surge through the region on
Sunday, delivering a much colder airmass to the region. Run to run
and inter model/ensemble consistency remains very good with this
cold snap, resulting in a moderate to high confidence forecast.
Well below average temperatures are expected early next week, with
low chances for the occasional light snow shower/flurry. Overall,
the atmosphere looks to be rather moisture starved, limiting our
precipitation potential.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1107 PM CST WED FEB 03 2016

A quick moving upper level shortwave will push through the area
during this TAF period, with a surface high pressure system
shifting east to our south. Clouds finally pushed east of the
terminals over the past couple of hours and we should remain in
VFR conditions through the TAF forecast period.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Lindenberg




000
FXUS63 KEAX 040518
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1118 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

A few shallow instability-driven snow bands have developed over the
snow pack in eastern Iowa this afternoon, and these could send some
very light snow showers into far northern Missouri over the next few
hours. Otherwise clouds will continue to scatter out from west to
east through the evening hours. Combo of clearing skies and light
winds within an approaching low-level ridge axis will allow
temperatures to drop into the mid to upper teens across most of the
region tonight.

Passage of tonight`s low-level ridge to the east on Thursday will
bring winds around from the southwest and allow temperatures to rise
into the 40s across most of the area. A similar pattern on Friday
will send temperatures a few degrees higher with southern parts of
the forecast area flirting with 50 degrees.

Over the weekend the upper-level pattern will undergo significant
amplification into deep ridging across western North America and a
very large trough downstream, a signal of another strongly negative
Arctic Oscillation developing. This will send the eastern half of the
country into a colder pattern while our area will remain on the
western edge of this airmass. As this pattern transition occurs, a
couple of systems will drop through the region within developing
northwest flow. The first will swing through Friday night, although
this system will lack much moisture or any real push of cold air
behind it. Therefore its passage should be mostly dry, with
temperatures on Saturday easily rebounding back into the 40s. A
second stronger system will drop through the area Sunday and Sunday
night, bringing with it the main surge of cold air that will remain
in place into the middle of the week. Like its predecessor, this
system too will be starved for much moisture so that any
precipitation should be limited to light rain or snow showers near or
just behind the cold front Sunday evening. Any snow accumulation
would be minimal, if anything.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all the terminals across
northwestern Missouri through the next 24 hours. Otherwise, winds
will back a little overnight to the southwest.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Cutter




000
FXUS63 KSGF 040509
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
1109 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 0213 PM CST WED FEB 03 2016

Low clouds rotating around the exiting cyclone over the Great
Lakes will clear from west to east late today and tonight. Sfc
high pressure will pass near and just south of the area Thu with a
dry and modest southwest wind. Low dew points should allow for a
nice diurnal temperature swing Thu with highs getting close to
normal for this time of year (mid 40s).

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 0213 PM CST WED FEB 03 2016

Fairly quiet weather is expected. Even with a weak frontal
passage Fri night and a much stronger front Sunday night/early
Mon, the general upper level nw flow pattern won`t keep or allow
much moisture to be in place. We`ll carry clouds and low pops for
each system, but precip amounts are expected to be very light.
The cold air behind the front and gusty nw winds Mon night/Tue
morning will likely drop wind chill values down into the single
digits.

Medium range global models (ECMWf/GFS) develop a high amplitude
ridge along the west coast of NOAM by Sunday/Mon with very dry
weather expected to continue through midweek (Tue/Wed).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1107 PM CST WED FEB 03 2016

A quick moving upper level shortwave will push through the area
during this TAF period, with a surface high pressure system
shifting east to our south. Clouds finally pushed east of the
terminals over the past couple of hours and we should remain in
VFR conditions through the TAF forecast period.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg



000
FXUS63 KSGF 040509
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
1109 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 0213 PM CST WED FEB 03 2016

Low clouds rotating around the exiting cyclone over the Great
Lakes will clear from west to east late today and tonight. Sfc
high pressure will pass near and just south of the area Thu with a
dry and modest southwest wind. Low dew points should allow for a
nice diurnal temperature swing Thu with highs getting close to
normal for this time of year (mid 40s).

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 0213 PM CST WED FEB 03 2016

Fairly quiet weather is expected. Even with a weak frontal
passage Fri night and a much stronger front Sunday night/early
Mon, the general upper level nw flow pattern won`t keep or allow
much moisture to be in place. We`ll carry clouds and low pops for
each system, but precip amounts are expected to be very light.
The cold air behind the front and gusty nw winds Mon night/Tue
morning will likely drop wind chill values down into the single
digits.

Medium range global models (ECMWf/GFS) develop a high amplitude
ridge along the west coast of NOAM by Sunday/Mon with very dry
weather expected to continue through midweek (Tue/Wed).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1107 PM CST WED FEB 03 2016

A quick moving upper level shortwave will push through the area
during this TAF period, with a surface high pressure system
shifting east to our south. Clouds finally pushed east of the
terminals over the past couple of hours and we should remain in
VFR conditions through the TAF forecast period.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg




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