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000
FXUS63 KLSX 281153
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
553 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Today through Saturday)
Issued at 332 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

Cold high pressure over the Central U.S. will drift east today and
return flow will bring warmer air to the Mid Mississippi Valley.
Expect temperatures to rise to near seasonal normals in the upper
40s to low 50s.  With southerly flow we should see increasing low
level moisture.  The last several model runs have been pretty
consistent in bringing high RH into the area at or below 925mb.  Now
the SREF is in on it showing high probabilities of low ceilings
across the area for much of the day Saturday.  Have therefore
increased cloud cover and lowered temperatures slightly for
Saturday.  Models continue to spit out light QPF in this strong
moisture return pattern; have kept forecast dry though since this is
a known issue with the models in these situations.  BUFKIT soundings
indicate weak subsidence in the moist layer, so I feel the chance
for precip is very low.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 417 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

The shortwave currently over British Columbia will deepen and slide
into the northern Plains Saturday night.  This will allow a very
cold but shallow airmass to dip into the Upper Midwest.   Guidance
has been pretty consistent with the speed of the resulting cold
front, which should stay north of our area Saturday night.  Should
continue to be cloudy/mostly cloudy with a decent southwest wind
overnight.  This would tend to keep temperatures up overnight so
tried to stick closer to warmer guidance.

Cold front will dip across the area on Sunday driven by a
1035-1040mb Canadian high.  Typically, the models are too slow with
the infiltration of these kinds of very cold airmasses.  To try to
compensate for this, have leaned heavily on 2m temperatures from the
NAM which seem to be about the coldest and most aggressive with the
cold advection.  With that in mind, front should be through Quincy
by 18Z, and through the STL Metro before 00Z.  While temps ahead of
the front should remain mild, but behind the front temperatures
should drop rapidly into the 30s and 40s.  Meanwhile, expecting
frontogenesis and low level moisture convergence to produce light
rain along and south of the I-70 corridor.  BUFKIT soundings from
all guidance members are pretty consistent in showing this cold
airmass won`t be deep enough to produce snow, but rather freezing
rain initially late Sunday night, then possibly mixed with sleet on
Monday before ending.  Not confident yet in a mix, so have let
surface temperatures determine precipitation type in the forecast
and just kept a "rain changing to freezing rain" forecast for this
forecast cycle.  Patchy light freezing rain south of I-44 should end
Monday by late afternoon or early evening.

Medium range guidance seems to be in better agreement for Tuesday
through Thursday this morning.  Unfortunately they`re in better
agreement that the flow aloft will be quasi-zonal, which is not good
for accuracy in the medium range.  The general pattern looks like we
should see slowly moderating temperatures after the big chill on
Monday and Monday night as the strong high pressure system moves off
to our east-northeast and the low level flow again turns to the
south.  The ECMWF still brings a second cold front through the area
on Wednesday which would keep us cooler than the GFS, but since the
two models agree to disagree on this point, I stuck close to
ensemble MOS guidance temperatures through the period.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 542 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

The region will be under the influence of srly flow thru the prd
as a sfc ridge moves from the mid-MS vly this morning to off the
Carolina coast by Sat mrng. A LLJ extends from OK into IA this
mrng and will likely affect KCOU and KUIN thru 15Z. Otherwise it
is a VFR fcst until very late in the prd when all model guidance
indicates low end MVFR stratus should form prior to 12Z.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR fcst with srly flow til around 9Z Sat when low end MVFR
stratus is expected to dvlp.

2%

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     49  40  58  53 /   0   0   5   5
Quincy          45  37  52  47 /   0   0   5   5
Columbia        53  42  61  51 /   0   0   5   5
Jefferson City  56  43  62  52 /   0   0   5   5
Salem           44  37  55  54 /   0   0   5  10
Farmington      48  40  57  54 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






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000
FXUS63 KSGF 281151
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
551 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Surface high pressure will continue to slide south and east of the
region this morning as the region remains under upper level
northwesterly flow. Developing low pressure over the northern
plains will allow for southerly flow across the region today and
through tonight. As a result, the surface pressure gradient will
increase through the day with winds gusting at times to 25-35 mph.
The southerly winds will also bring warmer weather to the Ozarks
with temperatures climbing into the 50s this afternoon.

Temperatures will fall little tonight as winds will remain up
through the overnight hours. The continuing southerly winds will
begin to bring a more moist airmass into the region along with the
warm temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 312 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Despite breezy conditions, Saturday will be a rather nice day as
temperatures climb into the 60s with partly cloudy skies.
Continued warm air and moisture advection into the region will set
the stage for precipitation late Sunday evening through early
Monday afternoon.

A cold front will approach the Ozarks during the day Sunday with
temperatures climbing to around 60 degrees again ahead of the
front. Models currently bring the front into and through most of
the Ozarks late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. This cold
front will usher in a starkly different airmass versus the one
that will be in place for much of the weekend. This airmass will
come out of the Northwest Territories of Canada and bring cold air
back the the region after a rather mild weekend.

Models break precipitation out across the eastern Ozarks by Sunday
afternoon and slowly push it to the west as the cold air pushes
under the warm and moist air that will be in place. Temperatures
will fall quickly to the freezing mark and below as precipitation
falls across the region. This will result in a change over from
light rain and drizzle Sunday afternoon to freezing drizzle and
light freezing rain Sunday evening and through Monday morning as
temperatures fall into the 20s Monday morning. Monday`s highs may
actually occur just after midnight with temperatures falling
through the day. While the moisture that will be in place looks to
remain rather shallow with little chance for any ice crystal
formation aloft, which takes snow out of the equation, the low
level and near surface temperatures look as though they will cool
quickly enough that a slight chance for sleet will exist, mainly
along the Ozarks Plateau. The chance for sleet to mix in with the
freezing drizzle/light freezing rain will occur early Monday
morning through mid day.

Overall precipitation amounts are expected to be light with only a
few hundredths falling in some locations to around a quarter inch
on the high end. Some ice accumulations are expected with up to a
tenth of an inch of accumulation possible...especially on elevated
surfaces. Where sleet occurs however, ice accumulations would be
lighter.

The Canadian high behind the cold front will bring cooler
temperatures to the region through mid week with a slow warming
trend into the end of next week into next weekend. The overall
upper level flow for much of next week will be zonal in nature
over the Ozarks with the next chance of precipitation coming
Thursday into Friday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 545 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

The main aviation impacts through this evening will be wind
related. Low level wind shear conditions will persist this
morning and will again develop tonight. Meanwhile, brisk southerly
surface winds will become gusty by mid-morning. Weather models do
start increasing low level moisture late tonight. This could
eventually lead to low clouds and potential fog. Confidence
remains low in flight category restrictions out that far given
that models can struggle handling low level moisture
return...especially with respect to timing. We have therefore held
off on a mention of MVFR/IFR, but will continue to assess this
potential for future TAF forecasts.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 281151
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
551 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Surface high pressure will continue to slide south and east of the
region this morning as the region remains under upper level
northwesterly flow. Developing low pressure over the northern
plains will allow for southerly flow across the region today and
through tonight. As a result, the surface pressure gradient will
increase through the day with winds gusting at times to 25-35 mph.
The southerly winds will also bring warmer weather to the Ozarks
with temperatures climbing into the 50s this afternoon.

Temperatures will fall little tonight as winds will remain up
through the overnight hours. The continuing southerly winds will
begin to bring a more moist airmass into the region along with the
warm temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 312 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Despite breezy conditions, Saturday will be a rather nice day as
temperatures climb into the 60s with partly cloudy skies.
Continued warm air and moisture advection into the region will set
the stage for precipitation late Sunday evening through early
Monday afternoon.

A cold front will approach the Ozarks during the day Sunday with
temperatures climbing to around 60 degrees again ahead of the
front. Models currently bring the front into and through most of
the Ozarks late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. This cold
front will usher in a starkly different airmass versus the one
that will be in place for much of the weekend. This airmass will
come out of the Northwest Territories of Canada and bring cold air
back the the region after a rather mild weekend.

Models break precipitation out across the eastern Ozarks by Sunday
afternoon and slowly push it to the west as the cold air pushes
under the warm and moist air that will be in place. Temperatures
will fall quickly to the freezing mark and below as precipitation
falls across the region. This will result in a change over from
light rain and drizzle Sunday afternoon to freezing drizzle and
light freezing rain Sunday evening and through Monday morning as
temperatures fall into the 20s Monday morning. Monday`s highs may
actually occur just after midnight with temperatures falling
through the day. While the moisture that will be in place looks to
remain rather shallow with little chance for any ice crystal
formation aloft, which takes snow out of the equation, the low
level and near surface temperatures look as though they will cool
quickly enough that a slight chance for sleet will exist, mainly
along the Ozarks Plateau. The chance for sleet to mix in with the
freezing drizzle/light freezing rain will occur early Monday
morning through mid day.

Overall precipitation amounts are expected to be light with only a
few hundredths falling in some locations to around a quarter inch
on the high end. Some ice accumulations are expected with up to a
tenth of an inch of accumulation possible...especially on elevated
surfaces. Where sleet occurs however, ice accumulations would be
lighter.

The Canadian high behind the cold front will bring cooler
temperatures to the region through mid week with a slow warming
trend into the end of next week into next weekend. The overall
upper level flow for much of next week will be zonal in nature
over the Ozarks with the next chance of precipitation coming
Thursday into Friday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 545 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

The main aviation impacts through this evening will be wind
related. Low level wind shear conditions will persist this
morning and will again develop tonight. Meanwhile, brisk southerly
surface winds will become gusty by mid-morning. Weather models do
start increasing low level moisture late tonight. This could
eventually lead to low clouds and potential fog. Confidence
remains low in flight category restrictions out that far given
that models can struggle handling low level moisture
return...especially with respect to timing. We have therefore held
off on a mention of MVFR/IFR, but will continue to assess this
potential for future TAF forecasts.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 281151
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
551 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Surface high pressure will continue to slide south and east of the
region this morning as the region remains under upper level
northwesterly flow. Developing low pressure over the northern
plains will allow for southerly flow across the region today and
through tonight. As a result, the surface pressure gradient will
increase through the day with winds gusting at times to 25-35 mph.
The southerly winds will also bring warmer weather to the Ozarks
with temperatures climbing into the 50s this afternoon.

Temperatures will fall little tonight as winds will remain up
through the overnight hours. The continuing southerly winds will
begin to bring a more moist airmass into the region along with the
warm temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 312 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Despite breezy conditions, Saturday will be a rather nice day as
temperatures climb into the 60s with partly cloudy skies.
Continued warm air and moisture advection into the region will set
the stage for precipitation late Sunday evening through early
Monday afternoon.

A cold front will approach the Ozarks during the day Sunday with
temperatures climbing to around 60 degrees again ahead of the
front. Models currently bring the front into and through most of
the Ozarks late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. This cold
front will usher in a starkly different airmass versus the one
that will be in place for much of the weekend. This airmass will
come out of the Northwest Territories of Canada and bring cold air
back the the region after a rather mild weekend.

Models break precipitation out across the eastern Ozarks by Sunday
afternoon and slowly push it to the west as the cold air pushes
under the warm and moist air that will be in place. Temperatures
will fall quickly to the freezing mark and below as precipitation
falls across the region. This will result in a change over from
light rain and drizzle Sunday afternoon to freezing drizzle and
light freezing rain Sunday evening and through Monday morning as
temperatures fall into the 20s Monday morning. Monday`s highs may
actually occur just after midnight with temperatures falling
through the day. While the moisture that will be in place looks to
remain rather shallow with little chance for any ice crystal
formation aloft, which takes snow out of the equation, the low
level and near surface temperatures look as though they will cool
quickly enough that a slight chance for sleet will exist, mainly
along the Ozarks Plateau. The chance for sleet to mix in with the
freezing drizzle/light freezing rain will occur early Monday
morning through mid day.

Overall precipitation amounts are expected to be light with only a
few hundredths falling in some locations to around a quarter inch
on the high end. Some ice accumulations are expected with up to a
tenth of an inch of accumulation possible...especially on elevated
surfaces. Where sleet occurs however, ice accumulations would be
lighter.

The Canadian high behind the cold front will bring cooler
temperatures to the region through mid week with a slow warming
trend into the end of next week into next weekend. The overall
upper level flow for much of next week will be zonal in nature
over the Ozarks with the next chance of precipitation coming
Thursday into Friday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 545 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

The main aviation impacts through this evening will be wind
related. Low level wind shear conditions will persist this
morning and will again develop tonight. Meanwhile, brisk southerly
surface winds will become gusty by mid-morning. Weather models do
start increasing low level moisture late tonight. This could
eventually lead to low clouds and potential fog. Confidence
remains low in flight category restrictions out that far given
that models can struggle handling low level moisture
return...especially with respect to timing. We have therefore held
off on a mention of MVFR/IFR, but will continue to assess this
potential for future TAF forecasts.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 281151
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
551 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Surface high pressure will continue to slide south and east of the
region this morning as the region remains under upper level
northwesterly flow. Developing low pressure over the northern
plains will allow for southerly flow across the region today and
through tonight. As a result, the surface pressure gradient will
increase through the day with winds gusting at times to 25-35 mph.
The southerly winds will also bring warmer weather to the Ozarks
with temperatures climbing into the 50s this afternoon.

Temperatures will fall little tonight as winds will remain up
through the overnight hours. The continuing southerly winds will
begin to bring a more moist airmass into the region along with the
warm temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 312 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Despite breezy conditions, Saturday will be a rather nice day as
temperatures climb into the 60s with partly cloudy skies.
Continued warm air and moisture advection into the region will set
the stage for precipitation late Sunday evening through early
Monday afternoon.

A cold front will approach the Ozarks during the day Sunday with
temperatures climbing to around 60 degrees again ahead of the
front. Models currently bring the front into and through most of
the Ozarks late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. This cold
front will usher in a starkly different airmass versus the one
that will be in place for much of the weekend. This airmass will
come out of the Northwest Territories of Canada and bring cold air
back the the region after a rather mild weekend.

Models break precipitation out across the eastern Ozarks by Sunday
afternoon and slowly push it to the west as the cold air pushes
under the warm and moist air that will be in place. Temperatures
will fall quickly to the freezing mark and below as precipitation
falls across the region. This will result in a change over from
light rain and drizzle Sunday afternoon to freezing drizzle and
light freezing rain Sunday evening and through Monday morning as
temperatures fall into the 20s Monday morning. Monday`s highs may
actually occur just after midnight with temperatures falling
through the day. While the moisture that will be in place looks to
remain rather shallow with little chance for any ice crystal
formation aloft, which takes snow out of the equation, the low
level and near surface temperatures look as though they will cool
quickly enough that a slight chance for sleet will exist, mainly
along the Ozarks Plateau. The chance for sleet to mix in with the
freezing drizzle/light freezing rain will occur early Monday
morning through mid day.

Overall precipitation amounts are expected to be light with only a
few hundredths falling in some locations to around a quarter inch
on the high end. Some ice accumulations are expected with up to a
tenth of an inch of accumulation possible...especially on elevated
surfaces. Where sleet occurs however, ice accumulations would be
lighter.

The Canadian high behind the cold front will bring cooler
temperatures to the region through mid week with a slow warming
trend into the end of next week into next weekend. The overall
upper level flow for much of next week will be zonal in nature
over the Ozarks with the next chance of precipitation coming
Thursday into Friday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 545 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

The main aviation impacts through this evening will be wind
related. Low level wind shear conditions will persist this
morning and will again develop tonight. Meanwhile, brisk southerly
surface winds will become gusty by mid-morning. Weather models do
start increasing low level moisture late tonight. This could
eventually lead to low clouds and potential fog. Confidence
remains low in flight category restrictions out that far given
that models can struggle handling low level moisture
return...especially with respect to timing. We have therefore held
off on a mention of MVFR/IFR, but will continue to assess this
potential for future TAF forecasts.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann





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000
FXUS63 KEAX 281122
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
522 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Warming temperatures and dry conditions will be the main story over
the next few days, as southerly flow returns on the back side of
departing surface high pressure, and mid- to upper-level ridging
builds over the central Plains. Highs this afternoon should reach
the lower to mid 50s in most areas, then will climb into the 60s for
Saturday throughout the majority of the region. The only exception
may be in northeastern and far eastern portions of the CWA, where a
bit more cloud cover is expected on Saturday.

By late Saturday night into Sunday morning, a cold front will begin
sweeping southward across the CWA ahead of an upper trough that will
dive into the Great Lakes region. Sharply colder temperatures and
gusty northwest winds are expected Sunday as the front passes, but
moisture should be limited enough that the frontal passage is
expected to be mainly dry. A few brief, very light showers are
possible along the boundary on Sunday, but chances for measurable
precipitation was low enough to keep out of the forecast for now.
Highs may not recover above freezing on Monday as colder air
continues to filter down into the region, but gradually warmer
temperatures are expected thereafter as the parent trough exits to
the east and southerly flow returns again to the region.

The only chance for precipitation in the long range forecast remains
on next Thursday as a weak shortwave trough slides eastward across
the forecast area. Soundings indicate that precipitation type should
be all liquid, and only light rainfall amounts are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 522 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period,
and winds will gradually increase out of the southwest this morning,
gusting to 20 to 25 kts during the late morning and afternoon hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 281122
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
522 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Warming temperatures and dry conditions will be the main story over
the next few days, as southerly flow returns on the back side of
departing surface high pressure, and mid- to upper-level ridging
builds over the central Plains. Highs this afternoon should reach
the lower to mid 50s in most areas, then will climb into the 60s for
Saturday throughout the majority of the region. The only exception
may be in northeastern and far eastern portions of the CWA, where a
bit more cloud cover is expected on Saturday.

By late Saturday night into Sunday morning, a cold front will begin
sweeping southward across the CWA ahead of an upper trough that will
dive into the Great Lakes region. Sharply colder temperatures and
gusty northwest winds are expected Sunday as the front passes, but
moisture should be limited enough that the frontal passage is
expected to be mainly dry. A few brief, very light showers are
possible along the boundary on Sunday, but chances for measurable
precipitation was low enough to keep out of the forecast for now.
Highs may not recover above freezing on Monday as colder air
continues to filter down into the region, but gradually warmer
temperatures are expected thereafter as the parent trough exits to
the east and southerly flow returns again to the region.

The only chance for precipitation in the long range forecast remains
on next Thursday as a weak shortwave trough slides eastward across
the forecast area. Soundings indicate that precipitation type should
be all liquid, and only light rainfall amounts are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 522 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period,
and winds will gradually increase out of the southwest this morning,
gusting to 20 to 25 kts during the late morning and afternoon hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KLSX 281018
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
418 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Today through Saturday)
Issued at 332 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

Cold high pressure over the Central U.S. will drift east today and
return flow will bring warmer air to the Mid Mississippi Valley.
Expect temperatures to rise to near seasonal normals in the upper
40s to low 50s.  With southerly flow we should see increasing low
level moisture.  The last several model runs have been pretty
consistent in bringing high RH into the area at or below 925mb.  Now
the SREF is in on it showing high probabilities of low ceilings
across the area for much of the day Saturday.  Have therefore
increased cloud cover and lowered temperatures slightly for
Saturday.  Models continue to spit out light QPF in this strong
moisture return pattern; have kept forecast dry though since this is
a known issue with the models in these situations.  BUFKIT soundings
indicate weak subsidence in the moist layer, so I feel the chance
for precip is very low.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 417 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

The shortwave currently over British Columbia will deepen and slide
into the northern Plains Saturday night.  This will allow a very
cold but shallow airmass to dip into the Upper Midwest.   Guidance
has been pretty consistent with the speed of the resulting cold
front, which should stay north of our area Saturday night.  Should
continue to be cloudy/mostly cloudy with a decent southwest wind
overnight.  This would tend to keep temperatures up overnight so
tried to stick closer to warmer guidance.

Cold front will dip across the area on Sunday driven by a
1035-1040mb Canadian high.  Typically, the models are too slow with
the infiltration of these kinds of very cold airmasses.  To try to
compensate for this, have leaned heavily on 2m temperatures from the
NAM which seem to be about the coldest and most aggressive with the
cold advection.  With that in mind, front should be through Quincy
by 18Z, and through the STL Metro before 00Z.  While temps ahead of
the front should remain mild, but behind the front temperatures
should drop rapidly into the 30s and 40s.  Meanwhile, expecting
frontogenesis and low level moisture convergence to produce light
rain along and south of the I-70 corridor.  BUFKIT soundings from
all guidance members are pretty consistent in showing this cold
airmass won`t be deep enough to produce snow, but rather freezing
rain initially late Sunday night, then possibly mixed with sleet on
Monday before ending.  Not confident yet in a mix, so have let
surface temperatures determine precipitation type in the forecast
and just kept a "rain changing to freezing rain" forecast for this
forecast cycle.  Patchy light freezing rain south of I-44 should end
Monday by late afternoon or early evening.

Medium range guidance seems to be in better agreement for Tuesday
through Thursday this morning.  Unfortunately they`re in better
agreement that the flow aloft will be quasi-zonal, which is not good
for accuracy in the medium range.  The general pattern looks like we
should see slowly moderating temperatures after the big chill on
Monday and Monday night as the strong high pressure system moves off
to our east-northeast and the low level flow again turns to the
south.  The ECMWF still brings a second cold front through the area
on Wednesday which would keep us cooler than the GFS, but since the
two models agree to disagree on this point, I stuck close to
ensemble MOS guidance temperatures through the period.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

VFR conditions and dry weather will continue thru the valid TAF
period. A ridge of high pressure has now moved to our east and has
initiated a light easterly flow. This will then strengthen and
veer south after daybreak on Friday...and then slacken off a bit
while remaining from the south Friday night. LLWS conditions
should be briefly met over in COU and UIN early Friday morning as
a 40-45kt low level jet moves overhead and then mix out by late
morning as gusts. May see LLWS conditions again later Friday night
for all TAF sites but will deal with that on later issuances.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry weather thru much of the period.
VFR CIGs will exit late tonight as winds veer from the south and
become gusty after daybreak on Friday. A moderate south wind will
continue into Friday night. LLWS conditions of a marginal nature
could threaten Friday night and will merit some watching for
future issuances. Along with the low level jet developing for
Friday night, model data continues to strongly suggest non-VFR
stratus developing late in the night. Have introduced CIGs at the
1500ft level for now, with data supportive to a degree of IFR
CIGs.

TES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     49  40  58  53 /   0   0   5   5
Quincy          45  37  52  47 /   0   0   5   5
Columbia        53  42  61  51 /   0   0   5   5
Jefferson City  56  43  62  52 /   0   0   5   5
Salem           44  37  55  54 /   0   0   5  10
Farmington      48  40  57  54 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 281018
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
418 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Today through Saturday)
Issued at 332 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

Cold high pressure over the Central U.S. will drift east today and
return flow will bring warmer air to the Mid Mississippi Valley.
Expect temperatures to rise to near seasonal normals in the upper
40s to low 50s.  With southerly flow we should see increasing low
level moisture.  The last several model runs have been pretty
consistent in bringing high RH into the area at or below 925mb.  Now
the SREF is in on it showing high probabilities of low ceilings
across the area for much of the day Saturday.  Have therefore
increased cloud cover and lowered temperatures slightly for
Saturday.  Models continue to spit out light QPF in this strong
moisture return pattern; have kept forecast dry though since this is
a known issue with the models in these situations.  BUFKIT soundings
indicate weak subsidence in the moist layer, so I feel the chance
for precip is very low.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 417 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

The shortwave currently over British Columbia will deepen and slide
into the northern Plains Saturday night.  This will allow a very
cold but shallow airmass to dip into the Upper Midwest.   Guidance
has been pretty consistent with the speed of the resulting cold
front, which should stay north of our area Saturday night.  Should
continue to be cloudy/mostly cloudy with a decent southwest wind
overnight.  This would tend to keep temperatures up overnight so
tried to stick closer to warmer guidance.

Cold front will dip across the area on Sunday driven by a
1035-1040mb Canadian high.  Typically, the models are too slow with
the infiltration of these kinds of very cold airmasses.  To try to
compensate for this, have leaned heavily on 2m temperatures from the
NAM which seem to be about the coldest and most aggressive with the
cold advection.  With that in mind, front should be through Quincy
by 18Z, and through the STL Metro before 00Z.  While temps ahead of
the front should remain mild, but behind the front temperatures
should drop rapidly into the 30s and 40s.  Meanwhile, expecting
frontogenesis and low level moisture convergence to produce light
rain along and south of the I-70 corridor.  BUFKIT soundings from
all guidance members are pretty consistent in showing this cold
airmass won`t be deep enough to produce snow, but rather freezing
rain initially late Sunday night, then possibly mixed with sleet on
Monday before ending.  Not confident yet in a mix, so have let
surface temperatures determine precipitation type in the forecast
and just kept a "rain changing to freezing rain" forecast for this
forecast cycle.  Patchy light freezing rain south of I-44 should end
Monday by late afternoon or early evening.

Medium range guidance seems to be in better agreement for Tuesday
through Thursday this morning.  Unfortunately they`re in better
agreement that the flow aloft will be quasi-zonal, which is not good
for accuracy in the medium range.  The general pattern looks like we
should see slowly moderating temperatures after the big chill on
Monday and Monday night as the strong high pressure system moves off
to our east-northeast and the low level flow again turns to the
south.  The ECMWF still brings a second cold front through the area
on Wednesday which would keep us cooler than the GFS, but since the
two models agree to disagree on this point, I stuck close to
ensemble MOS guidance temperatures through the period.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

VFR conditions and dry weather will continue thru the valid TAF
period. A ridge of high pressure has now moved to our east and has
initiated a light easterly flow. This will then strengthen and
veer south after daybreak on Friday...and then slacken off a bit
while remaining from the south Friday night. LLWS conditions
should be briefly met over in COU and UIN early Friday morning as
a 40-45kt low level jet moves overhead and then mix out by late
morning as gusts. May see LLWS conditions again later Friday night
for all TAF sites but will deal with that on later issuances.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry weather thru much of the period.
VFR CIGs will exit late tonight as winds veer from the south and
become gusty after daybreak on Friday. A moderate south wind will
continue into Friday night. LLWS conditions of a marginal nature
could threaten Friday night and will merit some watching for
future issuances. Along with the low level jet developing for
Friday night, model data continues to strongly suggest non-VFR
stratus developing late in the night. Have introduced CIGs at the
1500ft level for now, with data supportive to a degree of IFR
CIGs.

TES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     49  40  58  53 /   0   0   5   5
Quincy          45  37  52  47 /   0   0   5   5
Columbia        53  42  61  51 /   0   0   5   5
Jefferson City  56  43  62  52 /   0   0   5   5
Salem           44  37  55  54 /   0   0   5  10
Farmington      48  40  57  54 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 281018
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
418 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Today through Saturday)
Issued at 332 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

Cold high pressure over the Central U.S. will drift east today and
return flow will bring warmer air to the Mid Mississippi Valley.
Expect temperatures to rise to near seasonal normals in the upper
40s to low 50s.  With southerly flow we should see increasing low
level moisture.  The last several model runs have been pretty
consistent in bringing high RH into the area at or below 925mb.  Now
the SREF is in on it showing high probabilities of low ceilings
across the area for much of the day Saturday.  Have therefore
increased cloud cover and lowered temperatures slightly for
Saturday.  Models continue to spit out light QPF in this strong
moisture return pattern; have kept forecast dry though since this is
a known issue with the models in these situations.  BUFKIT soundings
indicate weak subsidence in the moist layer, so I feel the chance
for precip is very low.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 417 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

The shortwave currently over British Columbia will deepen and slide
into the northern Plains Saturday night.  This will allow a very
cold but shallow airmass to dip into the Upper Midwest.   Guidance
has been pretty consistent with the speed of the resulting cold
front, which should stay north of our area Saturday night.  Should
continue to be cloudy/mostly cloudy with a decent southwest wind
overnight.  This would tend to keep temperatures up overnight so
tried to stick closer to warmer guidance.

Cold front will dip across the area on Sunday driven by a
1035-1040mb Canadian high.  Typically, the models are too slow with
the infiltration of these kinds of very cold airmasses.  To try to
compensate for this, have leaned heavily on 2m temperatures from the
NAM which seem to be about the coldest and most aggressive with the
cold advection.  With that in mind, front should be through Quincy
by 18Z, and through the STL Metro before 00Z.  While temps ahead of
the front should remain mild, but behind the front temperatures
should drop rapidly into the 30s and 40s.  Meanwhile, expecting
frontogenesis and low level moisture convergence to produce light
rain along and south of the I-70 corridor.  BUFKIT soundings from
all guidance members are pretty consistent in showing this cold
airmass won`t be deep enough to produce snow, but rather freezing
rain initially late Sunday night, then possibly mixed with sleet on
Monday before ending.  Not confident yet in a mix, so have let
surface temperatures determine precipitation type in the forecast
and just kept a "rain changing to freezing rain" forecast for this
forecast cycle.  Patchy light freezing rain south of I-44 should end
Monday by late afternoon or early evening.

Medium range guidance seems to be in better agreement for Tuesday
through Thursday this morning.  Unfortunately they`re in better
agreement that the flow aloft will be quasi-zonal, which is not good
for accuracy in the medium range.  The general pattern looks like we
should see slowly moderating temperatures after the big chill on
Monday and Monday night as the strong high pressure system moves off
to our east-northeast and the low level flow again turns to the
south.  The ECMWF still brings a second cold front through the area
on Wednesday which would keep us cooler than the GFS, but since the
two models agree to disagree on this point, I stuck close to
ensemble MOS guidance temperatures through the period.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

VFR conditions and dry weather will continue thru the valid TAF
period. A ridge of high pressure has now moved to our east and has
initiated a light easterly flow. This will then strengthen and
veer south after daybreak on Friday...and then slacken off a bit
while remaining from the south Friday night. LLWS conditions
should be briefly met over in COU and UIN early Friday morning as
a 40-45kt low level jet moves overhead and then mix out by late
morning as gusts. May see LLWS conditions again later Friday night
for all TAF sites but will deal with that on later issuances.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry weather thru much of the period.
VFR CIGs will exit late tonight as winds veer from the south and
become gusty after daybreak on Friday. A moderate south wind will
continue into Friday night. LLWS conditions of a marginal nature
could threaten Friday night and will merit some watching for
future issuances. Along with the low level jet developing for
Friday night, model data continues to strongly suggest non-VFR
stratus developing late in the night. Have introduced CIGs at the
1500ft level for now, with data supportive to a degree of IFR
CIGs.

TES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     49  40  58  53 /   0   0   5   5
Quincy          45  37  52  47 /   0   0   5   5
Columbia        53  42  61  51 /   0   0   5   5
Jefferson City  56  43  62  52 /   0   0   5   5
Salem           44  37  55  54 /   0   0   5  10
Farmington      48  40  57  54 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 281018
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
418 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Today through Saturday)
Issued at 332 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

Cold high pressure over the Central U.S. will drift east today and
return flow will bring warmer air to the Mid Mississippi Valley.
Expect temperatures to rise to near seasonal normals in the upper
40s to low 50s.  With southerly flow we should see increasing low
level moisture.  The last several model runs have been pretty
consistent in bringing high RH into the area at or below 925mb.  Now
the SREF is in on it showing high probabilities of low ceilings
across the area for much of the day Saturday.  Have therefore
increased cloud cover and lowered temperatures slightly for
Saturday.  Models continue to spit out light QPF in this strong
moisture return pattern; have kept forecast dry though since this is
a known issue with the models in these situations.  BUFKIT soundings
indicate weak subsidence in the moist layer, so I feel the chance
for precip is very low.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 417 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

The shortwave currently over British Columbia will deepen and slide
into the northern Plains Saturday night.  This will allow a very
cold but shallow airmass to dip into the Upper Midwest.   Guidance
has been pretty consistent with the speed of the resulting cold
front, which should stay north of our area Saturday night.  Should
continue to be cloudy/mostly cloudy with a decent southwest wind
overnight.  This would tend to keep temperatures up overnight so
tried to stick closer to warmer guidance.

Cold front will dip across the area on Sunday driven by a
1035-1040mb Canadian high.  Typically, the models are too slow with
the infiltration of these kinds of very cold airmasses.  To try to
compensate for this, have leaned heavily on 2m temperatures from the
NAM which seem to be about the coldest and most aggressive with the
cold advection.  With that in mind, front should be through Quincy
by 18Z, and through the STL Metro before 00Z.  While temps ahead of
the front should remain mild, but behind the front temperatures
should drop rapidly into the 30s and 40s.  Meanwhile, expecting
frontogenesis and low level moisture convergence to produce light
rain along and south of the I-70 corridor.  BUFKIT soundings from
all guidance members are pretty consistent in showing this cold
airmass won`t be deep enough to produce snow, but rather freezing
rain initially late Sunday night, then possibly mixed with sleet on
Monday before ending.  Not confident yet in a mix, so have let
surface temperatures determine precipitation type in the forecast
and just kept a "rain changing to freezing rain" forecast for this
forecast cycle.  Patchy light freezing rain south of I-44 should end
Monday by late afternoon or early evening.

Medium range guidance seems to be in better agreement for Tuesday
through Thursday this morning.  Unfortunately they`re in better
agreement that the flow aloft will be quasi-zonal, which is not good
for accuracy in the medium range.  The general pattern looks like we
should see slowly moderating temperatures after the big chill on
Monday and Monday night as the strong high pressure system moves off
to our east-northeast and the low level flow again turns to the
south.  The ECMWF still brings a second cold front through the area
on Wednesday which would keep us cooler than the GFS, but since the
two models agree to disagree on this point, I stuck close to
ensemble MOS guidance temperatures through the period.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

VFR conditions and dry weather will continue thru the valid TAF
period. A ridge of high pressure has now moved to our east and has
initiated a light easterly flow. This will then strengthen and
veer south after daybreak on Friday...and then slacken off a bit
while remaining from the south Friday night. LLWS conditions
should be briefly met over in COU and UIN early Friday morning as
a 40-45kt low level jet moves overhead and then mix out by late
morning as gusts. May see LLWS conditions again later Friday night
for all TAF sites but will deal with that on later issuances.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry weather thru much of the period.
VFR CIGs will exit late tonight as winds veer from the south and
become gusty after daybreak on Friday. A moderate south wind will
continue into Friday night. LLWS conditions of a marginal nature
could threaten Friday night and will merit some watching for
future issuances. Along with the low level jet developing for
Friday night, model data continues to strongly suggest non-VFR
stratus developing late in the night. Have introduced CIGs at the
1500ft level for now, with data supportive to a degree of IFR
CIGs.

TES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     49  40  58  53 /   0   0   5   5
Quincy          45  37  52  47 /   0   0   5   5
Columbia        53  42  61  51 /   0   0   5   5
Jefferson City  56  43  62  52 /   0   0   5   5
Salem           44  37  55  54 /   0   0   5  10
Farmington      48  40  57  54 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 281018
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
418 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Today through Saturday)
Issued at 332 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

Cold high pressure over the Central U.S. will drift east today and
return flow will bring warmer air to the Mid Mississippi Valley.
Expect temperatures to rise to near seasonal normals in the upper
40s to low 50s.  With southerly flow we should see increasing low
level moisture.  The last several model runs have been pretty
consistent in bringing high RH into the area at or below 925mb.  Now
the SREF is in on it showing high probabilities of low ceilings
across the area for much of the day Saturday.  Have therefore
increased cloud cover and lowered temperatures slightly for
Saturday.  Models continue to spit out light QPF in this strong
moisture return pattern; have kept forecast dry though since this is
a known issue with the models in these situations.  BUFKIT soundings
indicate weak subsidence in the moist layer, so I feel the chance
for precip is very low.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 417 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

The shortwave currently over British Columbia will deepen and slide
into the northern Plains Saturday night.  This will allow a very
cold but shallow airmass to dip into the Upper Midwest.   Guidance
has been pretty consistent with the speed of the resulting cold
front, which should stay north of our area Saturday night.  Should
continue to be cloudy/mostly cloudy with a decent southwest wind
overnight.  This would tend to keep temperatures up overnight so
tried to stick closer to warmer guidance.

Cold front will dip across the area on Sunday driven by a
1035-1040mb Canadian high.  Typically, the models are too slow with
the infiltration of these kinds of very cold airmasses.  To try to
compensate for this, have leaned heavily on 2m temperatures from the
NAM which seem to be about the coldest and most aggressive with the
cold advection.  With that in mind, front should be through Quincy
by 18Z, and through the STL Metro before 00Z.  While temps ahead of
the front should remain mild, but behind the front temperatures
should drop rapidly into the 30s and 40s.  Meanwhile, expecting
frontogenesis and low level moisture convergence to produce light
rain along and south of the I-70 corridor.  BUFKIT soundings from
all guidance members are pretty consistent in showing this cold
airmass won`t be deep enough to produce snow, but rather freezing
rain initially late Sunday night, then possibly mixed with sleet on
Monday before ending.  Not confident yet in a mix, so have let
surface temperatures determine precipitation type in the forecast
and just kept a "rain changing to freezing rain" forecast for this
forecast cycle.  Patchy light freezing rain south of I-44 should end
Monday by late afternoon or early evening.

Medium range guidance seems to be in better agreement for Tuesday
through Thursday this morning.  Unfortunately they`re in better
agreement that the flow aloft will be quasi-zonal, which is not good
for accuracy in the medium range.  The general pattern looks like we
should see slowly moderating temperatures after the big chill on
Monday and Monday night as the strong high pressure system moves off
to our east-northeast and the low level flow again turns to the
south.  The ECMWF still brings a second cold front through the area
on Wednesday which would keep us cooler than the GFS, but since the
two models agree to disagree on this point, I stuck close to
ensemble MOS guidance temperatures through the period.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

VFR conditions and dry weather will continue thru the valid TAF
period. A ridge of high pressure has now moved to our east and has
initiated a light easterly flow. This will then strengthen and
veer south after daybreak on Friday...and then slacken off a bit
while remaining from the south Friday night. LLWS conditions
should be briefly met over in COU and UIN early Friday morning as
a 40-45kt low level jet moves overhead and then mix out by late
morning as gusts. May see LLWS conditions again later Friday night
for all TAF sites but will deal with that on later issuances.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry weather thru much of the period.
VFR CIGs will exit late tonight as winds veer from the south and
become gusty after daybreak on Friday. A moderate south wind will
continue into Friday night. LLWS conditions of a marginal nature
could threaten Friday night and will merit some watching for
future issuances. Along with the low level jet developing for
Friday night, model data continues to strongly suggest non-VFR
stratus developing late in the night. Have introduced CIGs at the
1500ft level for now, with data supportive to a degree of IFR
CIGs.

TES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     49  40  58  53 /   0   0   5   5
Quincy          45  37  52  47 /   0   0   5   5
Columbia        53  42  61  51 /   0   0   5   5
Jefferson City  56  43  62  52 /   0   0   5   5
Salem           44  37  55  54 /   0   0   5  10
Farmington      48  40  57  54 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 281000
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
400 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Surface high pressure will continue to slide south and east of the
region this morning as the region remains under upper level
northwesterly flow. Developing low pressure over the northern
plains will allow for southerly flow across the region today and
through tonight. As a result, the surface pressure gradient will
increase through the day with winds gusting at times to 25-35 mph.
The southerly winds will also bring warmer weather to the Ozarks
with temperatures climbing into the 50s this afternoon.

Temperatures will fall little tonight as winds will remain up
through the overnight hours. The continuing southerly winds will
begin to bring a more moist airmass into the region along with the
warm temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 312 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Despite breezy conditions, Saturday will be a rather nice day as
temperatures climb into the 60s with partly cloudy skies.
Continued warm air and moisture advection into the region will set
the stage for precipitation late Sunday evening through early
Monday afternoon.

A cold front will approach the Ozarks during the day Sunday with
temperatures climbing to around 60 degrees again ahead of the
front. Models currently bring the front into and through most of
the Ozarks late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. This cold
front will usher in a starkly different airmass versus the one
that will be in place for much of the weekend. This airmass will
come out of the Northwest Territories of Canada and bring cold air
back the the region after a rather mild weekend.

Models break precipitation out across the eastern Ozarks by Sunday
afternoon and slowly push it to the west as the cold air pushes
under the warm and moist air that will be in place. Temperatures
will fall quickly to the freezing mark and below as precipitation
falls across the region. This will result in a change over from
light rain and drizzle Sunday afternoon to freezing drizzle and
light freezing rain Sunday evening and through Monday morning as
temperatures fall into the 20s Monday morning. Monday`s highs may
actually occur just after midnight with temperatures falling
through the day. While the moisture that will be in place looks to
remain rather shallow with little chance for any ice crystal
formation aloft, which takes snow out of the equation, the low
level and near surface temperatures look as though they will cool
quickly enough that a slight chance for sleet will exist, mainly
along the Ozarks Plateau. The chance for sleet to mix in with the
freezing drizzle/light freezing rain will occur early Monday
morning through mid day.

Overall precipitation amounts are expected to be light with only a
few hundredths falling in some locations to around a quarter inch
on the high end. Some ice accumulations are expected with up to a
tenth of an inch of accumulation possible...especially on elevated
surfaces. Where sleet occurs however, ice accumulations would be
lighter.

The Canadian high behind the cold front will bring cooler
temperatures to the region through mid week with a slow warming
trend into the end of next week into next weekend. The overall
upper level flow for much of next week will be zonal in nature
over the Ozarks with the next chance of precipitation coming
Thursday into Friday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The main aviation impact through Friday evening will be strong low
level wind shear both tonight and again Friday night due to a
strong low level jet stream over the region. Brisk southerly to
southwesterly surface winds are also expected, with gusts around
30 knots from mid morning through late afternoon on Friday. No
clouds are expected with VFR prevailing through Friday evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 281000
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
400 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Surface high pressure will continue to slide south and east of the
region this morning as the region remains under upper level
northwesterly flow. Developing low pressure over the northern
plains will allow for southerly flow across the region today and
through tonight. As a result, the surface pressure gradient will
increase through the day with winds gusting at times to 25-35 mph.
The southerly winds will also bring warmer weather to the Ozarks
with temperatures climbing into the 50s this afternoon.

Temperatures will fall little tonight as winds will remain up
through the overnight hours. The continuing southerly winds will
begin to bring a more moist airmass into the region along with the
warm temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 312 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Despite breezy conditions, Saturday will be a rather nice day as
temperatures climb into the 60s with partly cloudy skies.
Continued warm air and moisture advection into the region will set
the stage for precipitation late Sunday evening through early
Monday afternoon.

A cold front will approach the Ozarks during the day Sunday with
temperatures climbing to around 60 degrees again ahead of the
front. Models currently bring the front into and through most of
the Ozarks late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. This cold
front will usher in a starkly different airmass versus the one
that will be in place for much of the weekend. This airmass will
come out of the Northwest Territories of Canada and bring cold air
back the the region after a rather mild weekend.

Models break precipitation out across the eastern Ozarks by Sunday
afternoon and slowly push it to the west as the cold air pushes
under the warm and moist air that will be in place. Temperatures
will fall quickly to the freezing mark and below as precipitation
falls across the region. This will result in a change over from
light rain and drizzle Sunday afternoon to freezing drizzle and
light freezing rain Sunday evening and through Monday morning as
temperatures fall into the 20s Monday morning. Monday`s highs may
actually occur just after midnight with temperatures falling
through the day. While the moisture that will be in place looks to
remain rather shallow with little chance for any ice crystal
formation aloft, which takes snow out of the equation, the low
level and near surface temperatures look as though they will cool
quickly enough that a slight chance for sleet will exist, mainly
along the Ozarks Plateau. The chance for sleet to mix in with the
freezing drizzle/light freezing rain will occur early Monday
morning through mid day.

Overall precipitation amounts are expected to be light with only a
few hundredths falling in some locations to around a quarter inch
on the high end. Some ice accumulations are expected with up to a
tenth of an inch of accumulation possible...especially on elevated
surfaces. Where sleet occurs however, ice accumulations would be
lighter.

The Canadian high behind the cold front will bring cooler
temperatures to the region through mid week with a slow warming
trend into the end of next week into next weekend. The overall
upper level flow for much of next week will be zonal in nature
over the Ozarks with the next chance of precipitation coming
Thursday into Friday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The main aviation impact through Friday evening will be strong low
level wind shear both tonight and again Friday night due to a
strong low level jet stream over the region. Brisk southerly to
southwesterly surface winds are also expected, with gusts around
30 knots from mid morning through late afternoon on Friday. No
clouds are expected with VFR prevailing through Friday evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 281000
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
400 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Surface high pressure will continue to slide south and east of the
region this morning as the region remains under upper level
northwesterly flow. Developing low pressure over the northern
plains will allow for southerly flow across the region today and
through tonight. As a result, the surface pressure gradient will
increase through the day with winds gusting at times to 25-35 mph.
The southerly winds will also bring warmer weather to the Ozarks
with temperatures climbing into the 50s this afternoon.

Temperatures will fall little tonight as winds will remain up
through the overnight hours. The continuing southerly winds will
begin to bring a more moist airmass into the region along with the
warm temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 312 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Despite breezy conditions, Saturday will be a rather nice day as
temperatures climb into the 60s with partly cloudy skies.
Continued warm air and moisture advection into the region will set
the stage for precipitation late Sunday evening through early
Monday afternoon.

A cold front will approach the Ozarks during the day Sunday with
temperatures climbing to around 60 degrees again ahead of the
front. Models currently bring the front into and through most of
the Ozarks late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. This cold
front will usher in a starkly different airmass versus the one
that will be in place for much of the weekend. This airmass will
come out of the Northwest Territories of Canada and bring cold air
back the the region after a rather mild weekend.

Models break precipitation out across the eastern Ozarks by Sunday
afternoon and slowly push it to the west as the cold air pushes
under the warm and moist air that will be in place. Temperatures
will fall quickly to the freezing mark and below as precipitation
falls across the region. This will result in a change over from
light rain and drizzle Sunday afternoon to freezing drizzle and
light freezing rain Sunday evening and through Monday morning as
temperatures fall into the 20s Monday morning. Monday`s highs may
actually occur just after midnight with temperatures falling
through the day. While the moisture that will be in place looks to
remain rather shallow with little chance for any ice crystal
formation aloft, which takes snow out of the equation, the low
level and near surface temperatures look as though they will cool
quickly enough that a slight chance for sleet will exist, mainly
along the Ozarks Plateau. The chance for sleet to mix in with the
freezing drizzle/light freezing rain will occur early Monday
morning through mid day.

Overall precipitation amounts are expected to be light with only a
few hundredths falling in some locations to around a quarter inch
on the high end. Some ice accumulations are expected with up to a
tenth of an inch of accumulation possible...especially on elevated
surfaces. Where sleet occurs however, ice accumulations would be
lighter.

The Canadian high behind the cold front will bring cooler
temperatures to the region through mid week with a slow warming
trend into the end of next week into next weekend. The overall
upper level flow for much of next week will be zonal in nature
over the Ozarks with the next chance of precipitation coming
Thursday into Friday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The main aviation impact through Friday evening will be strong low
level wind shear both tonight and again Friday night due to a
strong low level jet stream over the region. Brisk southerly to
southwesterly surface winds are also expected, with gusts around
30 knots from mid morning through late afternoon on Friday. No
clouds are expected with VFR prevailing through Friday evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 281000
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
400 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Surface high pressure will continue to slide south and east of the
region this morning as the region remains under upper level
northwesterly flow. Developing low pressure over the northern
plains will allow for southerly flow across the region today and
through tonight. As a result, the surface pressure gradient will
increase through the day with winds gusting at times to 25-35 mph.
The southerly winds will also bring warmer weather to the Ozarks
with temperatures climbing into the 50s this afternoon.

Temperatures will fall little tonight as winds will remain up
through the overnight hours. The continuing southerly winds will
begin to bring a more moist airmass into the region along with the
warm temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 312 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Despite breezy conditions, Saturday will be a rather nice day as
temperatures climb into the 60s with partly cloudy skies.
Continued warm air and moisture advection into the region will set
the stage for precipitation late Sunday evening through early
Monday afternoon.

A cold front will approach the Ozarks during the day Sunday with
temperatures climbing to around 60 degrees again ahead of the
front. Models currently bring the front into and through most of
the Ozarks late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. This cold
front will usher in a starkly different airmass versus the one
that will be in place for much of the weekend. This airmass will
come out of the Northwest Territories of Canada and bring cold air
back the the region after a rather mild weekend.

Models break precipitation out across the eastern Ozarks by Sunday
afternoon and slowly push it to the west as the cold air pushes
under the warm and moist air that will be in place. Temperatures
will fall quickly to the freezing mark and below as precipitation
falls across the region. This will result in a change over from
light rain and drizzle Sunday afternoon to freezing drizzle and
light freezing rain Sunday evening and through Monday morning as
temperatures fall into the 20s Monday morning. Monday`s highs may
actually occur just after midnight with temperatures falling
through the day. While the moisture that will be in place looks to
remain rather shallow with little chance for any ice crystal
formation aloft, which takes snow out of the equation, the low
level and near surface temperatures look as though they will cool
quickly enough that a slight chance for sleet will exist, mainly
along the Ozarks Plateau. The chance for sleet to mix in with the
freezing drizzle/light freezing rain will occur early Monday
morning through mid day.

Overall precipitation amounts are expected to be light with only a
few hundredths falling in some locations to around a quarter inch
on the high end. Some ice accumulations are expected with up to a
tenth of an inch of accumulation possible...especially on elevated
surfaces. Where sleet occurs however, ice accumulations would be
lighter.

The Canadian high behind the cold front will bring cooler
temperatures to the region through mid week with a slow warming
trend into the end of next week into next weekend. The overall
upper level flow for much of next week will be zonal in nature
over the Ozarks with the next chance of precipitation coming
Thursday into Friday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The main aviation impact through Friday evening will be strong low
level wind shear both tonight and again Friday night due to a
strong low level jet stream over the region. Brisk southerly to
southwesterly surface winds are also expected, with gusts around
30 knots from mid morning through late afternoon on Friday. No
clouds are expected with VFR prevailing through Friday evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KLSX 280933
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
333 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Today through Saturday)
Issued at 332 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

Cold high pressure over the Central U.S. will drift east today and
return flow will bring warmer air to the Mid Mississippi Valley.
Expect temperatures to rise to near seasonal normals in the upper
40s to low 50s.  With southerly flow we should see increasing low
level moisture.  The last several model runs have been pretty
consistent in bringing high RH into the area at or below 925mb.  Now
the SREF is in on it showing high probabilities of low ceilings
across the area for much of the day Saturday.  Have therefore
increased cloud cover and lowered temperatures slightly for
Saturday.  Models continue to spit out light QPF in this strong
moisture return pattern; have kept forecast dry though since this is
a known issue with the models in these situations.  BUFKIT soundings
indicate weak subsidence in the moist layer, so I feel the chance
for precip is very low.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

On Friday, we begin to warm up as winds pickup from the south,
gusting to near 25 mph at times, under mostly sunny skies. Highs
will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Milder Friday night with lows
in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Saturday forecast a bit tricky. Models try to develop some light qpf
in warm sector ahead of next frontal boundary. Feel that it is
overdone and that it will be dry. Thus with models trying to develop
precipitation it is also indicating more clouds. Backed off on cloud
cover a bit to be partly cloudy across my area. Warm southerly winds
to persist so will see highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Saturday night models begin to bring frontal boundary into forecast
area. Sided with the slightly slower NAM/ECMWF solutions. So expect
another mild night in the low 40s to low 50s. On Sunday front to
move through forecast area. So will see a wide range in high
temperatures ranging from the mid 50s far north to the upper 60s far
south. Low level moisture on the increase ahead of front so could
see some light precipitation develop over southeast half of
forecast area. Then as front pushes south of forecast area late
Sunday into Sunday night precipitation to shift a bit further
south...but could see some activity as far north as I70 corridor.
With colder air filtering in will see rain mix with and snow at
times. On Monday, as surface ridge settles into region, some
lingering mixed precipitation across far southern portions of
forecast area as highs will only be in the upper 20s to upper 30s.

Beyond that, extended models have very different solutions for
weather across the area around mid week. So confidence is low an any
of them. GFS keeps zonal flow and wants to bring in precipitation
for Wednesday night and Thursday while ECMWF wants to bring in an
upper level trof centered over great lakes and strong surface ridge
which would mean dry and cold conditions. For now have slight
chance/low end chance pops for this period with highs in the 40s and
lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

VFR conditions and dry weather will continue thru the valid TAF
period. A ridge of high pressure has now moved to our east and has
initiated a light easterly flow. This will then strengthen and
veer south after daybreak on Friday...and then slacken off a bit
while remaining from the south Friday night. LLWS conditions
should be briefly met over in COU and UIN early Friday morning as
a 40-45kt low level jet moves overhead and then mix out by late
morning as gusts. May see LLWS conditions again later Friday night
for all TAF sites but will deal with that on later issuances.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry weather thru much of the period.
VFR CIGs will exit late tonight as winds veer from the south and
become gusty after daybreak on Friday. A moderate south wind will
continue into Friday night. LLWS conditions of a marginal nature
could threaten Friday night and will merit some watching for
future issuances. Along with the low level jet developing for
Friday night, model data continues to strongly suggest non-VFR
stratus developing late in the night. Have introduced CIGs at the
1500ft level for now, with data supportive to a degree of IFR
CIGs.

TES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     49  40  58  53 /   0   0   5   5
Quincy          45  37  52  47 /   0   0   5   5
Columbia        53  42  61  51 /   0   0   5   5
Jefferson City  56  43  62  52 /   0   0   5   5
Salem           44  37  55  54 /   0   0   5  10
Farmington      48  40  57  54 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 280933
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
333 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Today through Saturday)
Issued at 332 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

Cold high pressure over the Central U.S. will drift east today and
return flow will bring warmer air to the Mid Mississippi Valley.
Expect temperatures to rise to near seasonal normals in the upper
40s to low 50s.  With southerly flow we should see increasing low
level moisture.  The last several model runs have been pretty
consistent in bringing high RH into the area at or below 925mb.  Now
the SREF is in on it showing high probabilities of low ceilings
across the area for much of the day Saturday.  Have therefore
increased cloud cover and lowered temperatures slightly for
Saturday.  Models continue to spit out light QPF in this strong
moisture return pattern; have kept forecast dry though since this is
a known issue with the models in these situations.  BUFKIT soundings
indicate weak subsidence in the moist layer, so I feel the chance
for precip is very low.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

On Friday, we begin to warm up as winds pickup from the south,
gusting to near 25 mph at times, under mostly sunny skies. Highs
will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Milder Friday night with lows
in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Saturday forecast a bit tricky. Models try to develop some light qpf
in warm sector ahead of next frontal boundary. Feel that it is
overdone and that it will be dry. Thus with models trying to develop
precipitation it is also indicating more clouds. Backed off on cloud
cover a bit to be partly cloudy across my area. Warm southerly winds
to persist so will see highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Saturday night models begin to bring frontal boundary into forecast
area. Sided with the slightly slower NAM/ECMWF solutions. So expect
another mild night in the low 40s to low 50s. On Sunday front to
move through forecast area. So will see a wide range in high
temperatures ranging from the mid 50s far north to the upper 60s far
south. Low level moisture on the increase ahead of front so could
see some light precipitation develop over southeast half of
forecast area. Then as front pushes south of forecast area late
Sunday into Sunday night precipitation to shift a bit further
south...but could see some activity as far north as I70 corridor.
With colder air filtering in will see rain mix with and snow at
times. On Monday, as surface ridge settles into region, some
lingering mixed precipitation across far southern portions of
forecast area as highs will only be in the upper 20s to upper 30s.

Beyond that, extended models have very different solutions for
weather across the area around mid week. So confidence is low an any
of them. GFS keeps zonal flow and wants to bring in precipitation
for Wednesday night and Thursday while ECMWF wants to bring in an
upper level trof centered over great lakes and strong surface ridge
which would mean dry and cold conditions. For now have slight
chance/low end chance pops for this period with highs in the 40s and
lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

VFR conditions and dry weather will continue thru the valid TAF
period. A ridge of high pressure has now moved to our east and has
initiated a light easterly flow. This will then strengthen and
veer south after daybreak on Friday...and then slacken off a bit
while remaining from the south Friday night. LLWS conditions
should be briefly met over in COU and UIN early Friday morning as
a 40-45kt low level jet moves overhead and then mix out by late
morning as gusts. May see LLWS conditions again later Friday night
for all TAF sites but will deal with that on later issuances.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry weather thru much of the period.
VFR CIGs will exit late tonight as winds veer from the south and
become gusty after daybreak on Friday. A moderate south wind will
continue into Friday night. LLWS conditions of a marginal nature
could threaten Friday night and will merit some watching for
future issuances. Along with the low level jet developing for
Friday night, model data continues to strongly suggest non-VFR
stratus developing late in the night. Have introduced CIGs at the
1500ft level for now, with data supportive to a degree of IFR
CIGs.

TES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     49  40  58  53 /   0   0   5   5
Quincy          45  37  52  47 /   0   0   5   5
Columbia        53  42  61  51 /   0   0   5   5
Jefferson City  56  43  62  52 /   0   0   5   5
Salem           44  37  55  54 /   0   0   5  10
Farmington      48  40  57  54 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 280933
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
333 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Today through Saturday)
Issued at 332 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

Cold high pressure over the Central U.S. will drift east today and
return flow will bring warmer air to the Mid Mississippi Valley.
Expect temperatures to rise to near seasonal normals in the upper
40s to low 50s.  With southerly flow we should see increasing low
level moisture.  The last several model runs have been pretty
consistent in bringing high RH into the area at or below 925mb.  Now
the SREF is in on it showing high probabilities of low ceilings
across the area for much of the day Saturday.  Have therefore
increased cloud cover and lowered temperatures slightly for
Saturday.  Models continue to spit out light QPF in this strong
moisture return pattern; have kept forecast dry though since this is
a known issue with the models in these situations.  BUFKIT soundings
indicate weak subsidence in the moist layer, so I feel the chance
for precip is very low.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

On Friday, we begin to warm up as winds pickup from the south,
gusting to near 25 mph at times, under mostly sunny skies. Highs
will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Milder Friday night with lows
in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Saturday forecast a bit tricky. Models try to develop some light qpf
in warm sector ahead of next frontal boundary. Feel that it is
overdone and that it will be dry. Thus with models trying to develop
precipitation it is also indicating more clouds. Backed off on cloud
cover a bit to be partly cloudy across my area. Warm southerly winds
to persist so will see highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Saturday night models begin to bring frontal boundary into forecast
area. Sided with the slightly slower NAM/ECMWF solutions. So expect
another mild night in the low 40s to low 50s. On Sunday front to
move through forecast area. So will see a wide range in high
temperatures ranging from the mid 50s far north to the upper 60s far
south. Low level moisture on the increase ahead of front so could
see some light precipitation develop over southeast half of
forecast area. Then as front pushes south of forecast area late
Sunday into Sunday night precipitation to shift a bit further
south...but could see some activity as far north as I70 corridor.
With colder air filtering in will see rain mix with and snow at
times. On Monday, as surface ridge settles into region, some
lingering mixed precipitation across far southern portions of
forecast area as highs will only be in the upper 20s to upper 30s.

Beyond that, extended models have very different solutions for
weather across the area around mid week. So confidence is low an any
of them. GFS keeps zonal flow and wants to bring in precipitation
for Wednesday night and Thursday while ECMWF wants to bring in an
upper level trof centered over great lakes and strong surface ridge
which would mean dry and cold conditions. For now have slight
chance/low end chance pops for this period with highs in the 40s and
lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

VFR conditions and dry weather will continue thru the valid TAF
period. A ridge of high pressure has now moved to our east and has
initiated a light easterly flow. This will then strengthen and
veer south after daybreak on Friday...and then slacken off a bit
while remaining from the south Friday night. LLWS conditions
should be briefly met over in COU and UIN early Friday morning as
a 40-45kt low level jet moves overhead and then mix out by late
morning as gusts. May see LLWS conditions again later Friday night
for all TAF sites but will deal with that on later issuances.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry weather thru much of the period.
VFR CIGs will exit late tonight as winds veer from the south and
become gusty after daybreak on Friday. A moderate south wind will
continue into Friday night. LLWS conditions of a marginal nature
could threaten Friday night and will merit some watching for
future issuances. Along with the low level jet developing for
Friday night, model data continues to strongly suggest non-VFR
stratus developing late in the night. Have introduced CIGs at the
1500ft level for now, with data supportive to a degree of IFR
CIGs.

TES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     49  40  58  53 /   0   0   5   5
Quincy          45  37  52  47 /   0   0   5   5
Columbia        53  42  61  51 /   0   0   5   5
Jefferson City  56  43  62  52 /   0   0   5   5
Salem           44  37  55  54 /   0   0   5  10
Farmington      48  40  57  54 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 280933
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
333 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Today through Saturday)
Issued at 332 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

Cold high pressure over the Central U.S. will drift east today and
return flow will bring warmer air to the Mid Mississippi Valley.
Expect temperatures to rise to near seasonal normals in the upper
40s to low 50s.  With southerly flow we should see increasing low
level moisture.  The last several model runs have been pretty
consistent in bringing high RH into the area at or below 925mb.  Now
the SREF is in on it showing high probabilities of low ceilings
across the area for much of the day Saturday.  Have therefore
increased cloud cover and lowered temperatures slightly for
Saturday.  Models continue to spit out light QPF in this strong
moisture return pattern; have kept forecast dry though since this is
a known issue with the models in these situations.  BUFKIT soundings
indicate weak subsidence in the moist layer, so I feel the chance
for precip is very low.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

On Friday, we begin to warm up as winds pickup from the south,
gusting to near 25 mph at times, under mostly sunny skies. Highs
will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Milder Friday night with lows
in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Saturday forecast a bit tricky. Models try to develop some light qpf
in warm sector ahead of next frontal boundary. Feel that it is
overdone and that it will be dry. Thus with models trying to develop
precipitation it is also indicating more clouds. Backed off on cloud
cover a bit to be partly cloudy across my area. Warm southerly winds
to persist so will see highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Saturday night models begin to bring frontal boundary into forecast
area. Sided with the slightly slower NAM/ECMWF solutions. So expect
another mild night in the low 40s to low 50s. On Sunday front to
move through forecast area. So will see a wide range in high
temperatures ranging from the mid 50s far north to the upper 60s far
south. Low level moisture on the increase ahead of front so could
see some light precipitation develop over southeast half of
forecast area. Then as front pushes south of forecast area late
Sunday into Sunday night precipitation to shift a bit further
south...but could see some activity as far north as I70 corridor.
With colder air filtering in will see rain mix with and snow at
times. On Monday, as surface ridge settles into region, some
lingering mixed precipitation across far southern portions of
forecast area as highs will only be in the upper 20s to upper 30s.

Beyond that, extended models have very different solutions for
weather across the area around mid week. So confidence is low an any
of them. GFS keeps zonal flow and wants to bring in precipitation
for Wednesday night and Thursday while ECMWF wants to bring in an
upper level trof centered over great lakes and strong surface ridge
which would mean dry and cold conditions. For now have slight
chance/low end chance pops for this period with highs in the 40s and
lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

VFR conditions and dry weather will continue thru the valid TAF
period. A ridge of high pressure has now moved to our east and has
initiated a light easterly flow. This will then strengthen and
veer south after daybreak on Friday...and then slacken off a bit
while remaining from the south Friday night. LLWS conditions
should be briefly met over in COU and UIN early Friday morning as
a 40-45kt low level jet moves overhead and then mix out by late
morning as gusts. May see LLWS conditions again later Friday night
for all TAF sites but will deal with that on later issuances.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry weather thru much of the period.
VFR CIGs will exit late tonight as winds veer from the south and
become gusty after daybreak on Friday. A moderate south wind will
continue into Friday night. LLWS conditions of a marginal nature
could threaten Friday night and will merit some watching for
future issuances. Along with the low level jet developing for
Friday night, model data continues to strongly suggest non-VFR
stratus developing late in the night. Have introduced CIGs at the
1500ft level for now, with data supportive to a degree of IFR
CIGs.

TES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     49  40  58  53 /   0   0   5   5
Quincy          45  37  52  47 /   0   0   5   5
Columbia        53  42  61  51 /   0   0   5   5
Jefferson City  56  43  62  52 /   0   0   5   5
Salem           44  37  55  54 /   0   0   5  10
Farmington      48  40  57  54 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 280857
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
257 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Warming temperatures and dry conditions will be the main story over
the next few days, as southerly flow returns on the back side of
departing surface high pressure, and mid- to upper-level ridging
builds over the central Plains. Highs this afternoon should reach
the lower to mid 50s in most areas, then will climb into the 60s for
Saturday throughout the majority of the region. The only exception
may be in northeastern and far eastern portions of the CWA, where a
bit more cloud cover is expected on Saturday.

By late Saturday night into Sunday morning, a cold front will begin
sweeping southward across the CWA ahead of an upper trough that will
dive into the Great Lakes region. Sharply colder temperatures and
gusty northwest winds are expected Sunday as the front passes, but
moisture should be limited enough that the frontal passage is
expected to be mainly dry. A few brief, very light showers are
possible along the boundary on Sunday, but chances for measurable
precipitation was low enough to keep out of the forecast for now.
Highs may not recover above freezing on Monday as colder air
continues to filter down into the region, but gradually warmer
temperatures are expected thereafter as the parent trough exits to
the east and southerly flow returns again to the region.

The only chance for precipitation in the long range forecast remains
on next Thursday as a weak shortwave trough slides eastward across
the forecast area. Soundings indicate that precipitation type should
be all liquid, and only light rainfall amounts are expected.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1111 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF cycle with clr skies overnight
giving way to sct cirrus tomorrow morning. Winds will be out of the
south tonight btn 7-12kts before veering to the SW tomorrow morning
and increasing to 10-15kts with possible gusts to 20kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 280857
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
257 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Warming temperatures and dry conditions will be the main story over
the next few days, as southerly flow returns on the back side of
departing surface high pressure, and mid- to upper-level ridging
builds over the central Plains. Highs this afternoon should reach
the lower to mid 50s in most areas, then will climb into the 60s for
Saturday throughout the majority of the region. The only exception
may be in northeastern and far eastern portions of the CWA, where a
bit more cloud cover is expected on Saturday.

By late Saturday night into Sunday morning, a cold front will begin
sweeping southward across the CWA ahead of an upper trough that will
dive into the Great Lakes region. Sharply colder temperatures and
gusty northwest winds are expected Sunday as the front passes, but
moisture should be limited enough that the frontal passage is
expected to be mainly dry. A few brief, very light showers are
possible along the boundary on Sunday, but chances for measurable
precipitation was low enough to keep out of the forecast for now.
Highs may not recover above freezing on Monday as colder air
continues to filter down into the region, but gradually warmer
temperatures are expected thereafter as the parent trough exits to
the east and southerly flow returns again to the region.

The only chance for precipitation in the long range forecast remains
on next Thursday as a weak shortwave trough slides eastward across
the forecast area. Soundings indicate that precipitation type should
be all liquid, and only light rainfall amounts are expected.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1111 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF cycle with clr skies overnight
giving way to sct cirrus tomorrow morning. Winds will be out of the
south tonight btn 7-12kts before veering to the SW tomorrow morning
and increasing to 10-15kts with possible gusts to 20kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 280857
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
257 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Warming temperatures and dry conditions will be the main story over
the next few days, as southerly flow returns on the back side of
departing surface high pressure, and mid- to upper-level ridging
builds over the central Plains. Highs this afternoon should reach
the lower to mid 50s in most areas, then will climb into the 60s for
Saturday throughout the majority of the region. The only exception
may be in northeastern and far eastern portions of the CWA, where a
bit more cloud cover is expected on Saturday.

By late Saturday night into Sunday morning, a cold front will begin
sweeping southward across the CWA ahead of an upper trough that will
dive into the Great Lakes region. Sharply colder temperatures and
gusty northwest winds are expected Sunday as the front passes, but
moisture should be limited enough that the frontal passage is
expected to be mainly dry. A few brief, very light showers are
possible along the boundary on Sunday, but chances for measurable
precipitation was low enough to keep out of the forecast for now.
Highs may not recover above freezing on Monday as colder air
continues to filter down into the region, but gradually warmer
temperatures are expected thereafter as the parent trough exits to
the east and southerly flow returns again to the region.

The only chance for precipitation in the long range forecast remains
on next Thursday as a weak shortwave trough slides eastward across
the forecast area. Soundings indicate that precipitation type should
be all liquid, and only light rainfall amounts are expected.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1111 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF cycle with clr skies overnight
giving way to sct cirrus tomorrow morning. Winds will be out of the
south tonight btn 7-12kts before veering to the SW tomorrow morning
and increasing to 10-15kts with possible gusts to 20kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 280857
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
257 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Warming temperatures and dry conditions will be the main story over
the next few days, as southerly flow returns on the back side of
departing surface high pressure, and mid- to upper-level ridging
builds over the central Plains. Highs this afternoon should reach
the lower to mid 50s in most areas, then will climb into the 60s for
Saturday throughout the majority of the region. The only exception
may be in northeastern and far eastern portions of the CWA, where a
bit more cloud cover is expected on Saturday.

By late Saturday night into Sunday morning, a cold front will begin
sweeping southward across the CWA ahead of an upper trough that will
dive into the Great Lakes region. Sharply colder temperatures and
gusty northwest winds are expected Sunday as the front passes, but
moisture should be limited enough that the frontal passage is
expected to be mainly dry. A few brief, very light showers are
possible along the boundary on Sunday, but chances for measurable
precipitation was low enough to keep out of the forecast for now.
Highs may not recover above freezing on Monday as colder air
continues to filter down into the region, but gradually warmer
temperatures are expected thereafter as the parent trough exits to
the east and southerly flow returns again to the region.

The only chance for precipitation in the long range forecast remains
on next Thursday as a weak shortwave trough slides eastward across
the forecast area. Soundings indicate that precipitation type should
be all liquid, and only light rainfall amounts are expected.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1111 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF cycle with clr skies overnight
giving way to sct cirrus tomorrow morning. Winds will be out of the
south tonight btn 7-12kts before veering to the SW tomorrow morning
and increasing to 10-15kts with possible gusts to 20kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KLSX 280545
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1145 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 935 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Made an update earlier this evening for clouds and temps, and just
sent out another update. Temperatures fell pretty quickly across
northeast MO and western IL after sunset where there is some
residual snow cover and winds are very light within the center of
the retreating surface high. Meanwhile mid level warm advection
clouds have rapidly advanced across all but parts of south central
IL, and the clouds should overspread that area within the next
hour or so. Once the clouds move in, the temps should steady out
and then eventually rise a bit overnight as southeast winds
increase in the wake of the retreating surface high.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Surface ridge to begin moving off to the east tonight allowing winds
to become southerly by daybreak. Lingering mid and high clouds to
keep temperatures from dropping like a brick but will still see lows
in the upper teens to mid 20s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

On Friday, we begin to warm up as winds pickup from the south,
gusting to near 25 mph at times, under mostly sunny skies. Highs
will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Milder Friday night with lows
in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Saturday forecast a bit tricky. Models try to develop some light qpf
in warm sector ahead of next frontal boundary. Feel that it is
overdone and that it will be dry. Thus with models trying to develop
precipitation it is also indicating more clouds. Backed off on cloud
cover a bit to be partly cloudy across my area. Warm southerly winds
to persist so will see highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Saturday night models begin to bring frontal boundary into forecast
area. Sided with the slightly slower NAM/ECMWF solutions. So expect
another mild night in the low 40s to low 50s. On Sunday front to
move through forecast area. So will see a wide range in high
temperatures ranging from the mid 50s far north to the upper 60s far
south. Low level moisture on the increase ahead of front so could
see some light precipitation develop over southeast half of
forecast area. Then as front pushes south of forecast area late
Sunday into Sunday night precipitation to shift a bit further
south...but could see some activity as far north as I70 corridor.
With colder air filtering in will see rain mix with and snow at
times. On Monday, as surface ridge settles into region, some
lingering mixed precipitation across far southern portions of
forecast area as highs will only be in the upper 20s to upper 30s.

Beyond that, extended models have very different solutions for
weather across the area around mid week. So confidence is low an any
of them. GFS keeps zonal flow and wants to bring in precipitation
for Wednesday night and Thursday while ECMWF wants to bring in an
upper level trof centered over great lakes and strong surface ridge
which would mean dry and cold conditions. For now have slight
chance/low end chance pops for this period with highs in the 40s and
lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

VFR conditions and dry weather will continue thru the valid TAF
period. A ridge of high pressure has now moved to our east and has
initiated a light easterly flow. This will then strengthen and
veer south after daybreak on Friday...and then slacken off a bit
while remaining from the south Friday night. LLWS conditions
should be briefly met over in COU and UIN early Friday morning as
a 40-45kt low level jet moves overhead and then mix out by late
morning as gusts. May see LLWS conditions again later Friday night
for all TAF sites but will deal with that on later issuances.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry weather thru much of the period.
VFR CIGs will exit late tonight as winds veer from the south and
become gusty after daybreak on Friday. A moderate south wind will
continue into Friday night. LLWS conditions of a marginal nature
could threaten Friday night and will merit some watching for
future issuances. Along with the low level jet developing for
Friday night, model data continues to strongly suggest non-VFR
stratus developing late in the night. Have introduced CIGs at the
1500ft level for now, with data supportive to a degree of IFR
CIGs.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 280545
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1145 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 935 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Made an update earlier this evening for clouds and temps, and just
sent out another update. Temperatures fell pretty quickly across
northeast MO and western IL after sunset where there is some
residual snow cover and winds are very light within the center of
the retreating surface high. Meanwhile mid level warm advection
clouds have rapidly advanced across all but parts of south central
IL, and the clouds should overspread that area within the next
hour or so. Once the clouds move in, the temps should steady out
and then eventually rise a bit overnight as southeast winds
increase in the wake of the retreating surface high.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Surface ridge to begin moving off to the east tonight allowing winds
to become southerly by daybreak. Lingering mid and high clouds to
keep temperatures from dropping like a brick but will still see lows
in the upper teens to mid 20s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

On Friday, we begin to warm up as winds pickup from the south,
gusting to near 25 mph at times, under mostly sunny skies. Highs
will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Milder Friday night with lows
in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Saturday forecast a bit tricky. Models try to develop some light qpf
in warm sector ahead of next frontal boundary. Feel that it is
overdone and that it will be dry. Thus with models trying to develop
precipitation it is also indicating more clouds. Backed off on cloud
cover a bit to be partly cloudy across my area. Warm southerly winds
to persist so will see highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Saturday night models begin to bring frontal boundary into forecast
area. Sided with the slightly slower NAM/ECMWF solutions. So expect
another mild night in the low 40s to low 50s. On Sunday front to
move through forecast area. So will see a wide range in high
temperatures ranging from the mid 50s far north to the upper 60s far
south. Low level moisture on the increase ahead of front so could
see some light precipitation develop over southeast half of
forecast area. Then as front pushes south of forecast area late
Sunday into Sunday night precipitation to shift a bit further
south...but could see some activity as far north as I70 corridor.
With colder air filtering in will see rain mix with and snow at
times. On Monday, as surface ridge settles into region, some
lingering mixed precipitation across far southern portions of
forecast area as highs will only be in the upper 20s to upper 30s.

Beyond that, extended models have very different solutions for
weather across the area around mid week. So confidence is low an any
of them. GFS keeps zonal flow and wants to bring in precipitation
for Wednesday night and Thursday while ECMWF wants to bring in an
upper level trof centered over great lakes and strong surface ridge
which would mean dry and cold conditions. For now have slight
chance/low end chance pops for this period with highs in the 40s and
lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

VFR conditions and dry weather will continue thru the valid TAF
period. A ridge of high pressure has now moved to our east and has
initiated a light easterly flow. This will then strengthen and
veer south after daybreak on Friday...and then slacken off a bit
while remaining from the south Friday night. LLWS conditions
should be briefly met over in COU and UIN early Friday morning as
a 40-45kt low level jet moves overhead and then mix out by late
morning as gusts. May see LLWS conditions again later Friday night
for all TAF sites but will deal with that on later issuances.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry weather thru much of the period.
VFR CIGs will exit late tonight as winds veer from the south and
become gusty after daybreak on Friday. A moderate south wind will
continue into Friday night. LLWS conditions of a marginal nature
could threaten Friday night and will merit some watching for
future issuances. Along with the low level jet developing for
Friday night, model data continues to strongly suggest non-VFR
stratus developing late in the night. Have introduced CIGs at the
1500ft level for now, with data supportive to a degree of IFR
CIGs.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KSGF 280533
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1133 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Surface high pressure is currently located over the central U.S.
with an upper level trough over the east coast and upper level
ridge along the west coast. Cool conditions are occurring today
with mid afternoon temperatures generally in the middle 30s to the
lower 40s.

The area of high pressure will slide off to the east and southerly
winds will return across the area overnight into Friday.
Temperatures will likely drop quickly this evening with the high
overhead, but then steady off or rise overnight as the south winds
kick in.

A warming trend will start on Friday as the upper level ridge
moves east towards the region. Highs will warm into the 50s, with
portions of southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri
approaching the 60 degree mark. Southerly winds will increase and
become gusty on Friday as the area of high pressure moves off to
the east and surface low pressure develops across the plains.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The upper level ridge will build over the central U.S. on
Saturday. Low level moisture will start to spread into the region
Friday night into Saturday resulting in a stratus cloud deck
across the region. There could be some build down of this stratus
deck resulting in patchy fog Saturday morning. There will also be
some weak isentropic lift across the area and could see some
patchy drizzle overnight Friday into Saturday morning. With the
warmer air mass and increasing clouds lows will be in the 40s
Friday night. Temperatures will likely be slow to warm on Saturday
as clouds blanket the area but the clouds will eventually clear
Saturday afternoon and temperatures will shoot well into the 60s.

The warm conditions will remain into Sunday as lows only drop into
the 50s Saturday night and highs once again warm into the 60s on
Sunday. May have to watch for the low level clouds developing
again Saturday night into Sunday morning as low level moisture
continues to spread into the region.

An upper level shortwave trough will then track east across the
northern plains into the great lakes region Sunday into Sunday
night. This will push a cold front through the region late Sunday
into Sunday night. The mid levels of the atmosphere will be dry and
think will keep the precipitation light but low level moisture
will remain higher and think there will be some showers along the
front as it passes through the region. There will also be some
light rain or drizzle that occurs behind the front overnight
Sunday into Monday morning. Will have to watch how quickly
temperatures drop behind the front to see if any freezing rain
will be possible or not. This will be brief and not expected a
lot of impacts as drier air in the low levels will spread into the
region behind the front limiting the precipitation potential
farther behind the front.

Chilly conditions can be expected Sunday night into Monday night
as lows drop into the 20s and highs warm into the 30s behind the
front. A warming trend will then occur into the middle of the week
with highs warming back into the 40s and 50s by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The main aviation impact through Friday evening will be strong low
level wind shear both tonight and again Friday night due to a
strong low level jet stream over the region. Brisk southerly to
southwesterly surface winds are also expected, with gusts around
30 knots from mid morning through late afternoon on Friday. No
clouds are expected with VFR prevailing through Friday evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 280533
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1133 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Surface high pressure is currently located over the central U.S.
with an upper level trough over the east coast and upper level
ridge along the west coast. Cool conditions are occurring today
with mid afternoon temperatures generally in the middle 30s to the
lower 40s.

The area of high pressure will slide off to the east and southerly
winds will return across the area overnight into Friday.
Temperatures will likely drop quickly this evening with the high
overhead, but then steady off or rise overnight as the south winds
kick in.

A warming trend will start on Friday as the upper level ridge
moves east towards the region. Highs will warm into the 50s, with
portions of southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri
approaching the 60 degree mark. Southerly winds will increase and
become gusty on Friday as the area of high pressure moves off to
the east and surface low pressure develops across the plains.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The upper level ridge will build over the central U.S. on
Saturday. Low level moisture will start to spread into the region
Friday night into Saturday resulting in a stratus cloud deck
across the region. There could be some build down of this stratus
deck resulting in patchy fog Saturday morning. There will also be
some weak isentropic lift across the area and could see some
patchy drizzle overnight Friday into Saturday morning. With the
warmer air mass and increasing clouds lows will be in the 40s
Friday night. Temperatures will likely be slow to warm on Saturday
as clouds blanket the area but the clouds will eventually clear
Saturday afternoon and temperatures will shoot well into the 60s.

The warm conditions will remain into Sunday as lows only drop into
the 50s Saturday night and highs once again warm into the 60s on
Sunday. May have to watch for the low level clouds developing
again Saturday night into Sunday morning as low level moisture
continues to spread into the region.

An upper level shortwave trough will then track east across the
northern plains into the great lakes region Sunday into Sunday
night. This will push a cold front through the region late Sunday
into Sunday night. The mid levels of the atmosphere will be dry and
think will keep the precipitation light but low level moisture
will remain higher and think there will be some showers along the
front as it passes through the region. There will also be some
light rain or drizzle that occurs behind the front overnight
Sunday into Monday morning. Will have to watch how quickly
temperatures drop behind the front to see if any freezing rain
will be possible or not. This will be brief and not expected a
lot of impacts as drier air in the low levels will spread into the
region behind the front limiting the precipitation potential
farther behind the front.

Chilly conditions can be expected Sunday night into Monday night
as lows drop into the 20s and highs warm into the 30s behind the
front. A warming trend will then occur into the middle of the week
with highs warming back into the 40s and 50s by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The main aviation impact through Friday evening will be strong low
level wind shear both tonight and again Friday night due to a
strong low level jet stream over the region. Brisk southerly to
southwesterly surface winds are also expected, with gusts around
30 knots from mid morning through late afternoon on Friday. No
clouds are expected with VFR prevailing through Friday evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 280533
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1133 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Surface high pressure is currently located over the central U.S.
with an upper level trough over the east coast and upper level
ridge along the west coast. Cool conditions are occurring today
with mid afternoon temperatures generally in the middle 30s to the
lower 40s.

The area of high pressure will slide off to the east and southerly
winds will return across the area overnight into Friday.
Temperatures will likely drop quickly this evening with the high
overhead, but then steady off or rise overnight as the south winds
kick in.

A warming trend will start on Friday as the upper level ridge
moves east towards the region. Highs will warm into the 50s, with
portions of southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri
approaching the 60 degree mark. Southerly winds will increase and
become gusty on Friday as the area of high pressure moves off to
the east and surface low pressure develops across the plains.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The upper level ridge will build over the central U.S. on
Saturday. Low level moisture will start to spread into the region
Friday night into Saturday resulting in a stratus cloud deck
across the region. There could be some build down of this stratus
deck resulting in patchy fog Saturday morning. There will also be
some weak isentropic lift across the area and could see some
patchy drizzle overnight Friday into Saturday morning. With the
warmer air mass and increasing clouds lows will be in the 40s
Friday night. Temperatures will likely be slow to warm on Saturday
as clouds blanket the area but the clouds will eventually clear
Saturday afternoon and temperatures will shoot well into the 60s.

The warm conditions will remain into Sunday as lows only drop into
the 50s Saturday night and highs once again warm into the 60s on
Sunday. May have to watch for the low level clouds developing
again Saturday night into Sunday morning as low level moisture
continues to spread into the region.

An upper level shortwave trough will then track east across the
northern plains into the great lakes region Sunday into Sunday
night. This will push a cold front through the region late Sunday
into Sunday night. The mid levels of the atmosphere will be dry and
think will keep the precipitation light but low level moisture
will remain higher and think there will be some showers along the
front as it passes through the region. There will also be some
light rain or drizzle that occurs behind the front overnight
Sunday into Monday morning. Will have to watch how quickly
temperatures drop behind the front to see if any freezing rain
will be possible or not. This will be brief and not expected a
lot of impacts as drier air in the low levels will spread into the
region behind the front limiting the precipitation potential
farther behind the front.

Chilly conditions can be expected Sunday night into Monday night
as lows drop into the 20s and highs warm into the 30s behind the
front. A warming trend will then occur into the middle of the week
with highs warming back into the 40s and 50s by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The main aviation impact through Friday evening will be strong low
level wind shear both tonight and again Friday night due to a
strong low level jet stream over the region. Brisk southerly to
southwesterly surface winds are also expected, with gusts around
30 knots from mid morning through late afternoon on Friday. No
clouds are expected with VFR prevailing through Friday evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 280533
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1133 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Surface high pressure is currently located over the central U.S.
with an upper level trough over the east coast and upper level
ridge along the west coast. Cool conditions are occurring today
with mid afternoon temperatures generally in the middle 30s to the
lower 40s.

The area of high pressure will slide off to the east and southerly
winds will return across the area overnight into Friday.
Temperatures will likely drop quickly this evening with the high
overhead, but then steady off or rise overnight as the south winds
kick in.

A warming trend will start on Friday as the upper level ridge
moves east towards the region. Highs will warm into the 50s, with
portions of southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri
approaching the 60 degree mark. Southerly winds will increase and
become gusty on Friday as the area of high pressure moves off to
the east and surface low pressure develops across the plains.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The upper level ridge will build over the central U.S. on
Saturday. Low level moisture will start to spread into the region
Friday night into Saturday resulting in a stratus cloud deck
across the region. There could be some build down of this stratus
deck resulting in patchy fog Saturday morning. There will also be
some weak isentropic lift across the area and could see some
patchy drizzle overnight Friday into Saturday morning. With the
warmer air mass and increasing clouds lows will be in the 40s
Friday night. Temperatures will likely be slow to warm on Saturday
as clouds blanket the area but the clouds will eventually clear
Saturday afternoon and temperatures will shoot well into the 60s.

The warm conditions will remain into Sunday as lows only drop into
the 50s Saturday night and highs once again warm into the 60s on
Sunday. May have to watch for the low level clouds developing
again Saturday night into Sunday morning as low level moisture
continues to spread into the region.

An upper level shortwave trough will then track east across the
northern plains into the great lakes region Sunday into Sunday
night. This will push a cold front through the region late Sunday
into Sunday night. The mid levels of the atmosphere will be dry and
think will keep the precipitation light but low level moisture
will remain higher and think there will be some showers along the
front as it passes through the region. There will also be some
light rain or drizzle that occurs behind the front overnight
Sunday into Monday morning. Will have to watch how quickly
temperatures drop behind the front to see if any freezing rain
will be possible or not. This will be brief and not expected a
lot of impacts as drier air in the low levels will spread into the
region behind the front limiting the precipitation potential
farther behind the front.

Chilly conditions can be expected Sunday night into Monday night
as lows drop into the 20s and highs warm into the 30s behind the
front. A warming trend will then occur into the middle of the week
with highs warming back into the 40s and 50s by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The main aviation impact through Friday evening will be strong low
level wind shear both tonight and again Friday night due to a
strong low level jet stream over the region. Brisk southerly to
southwesterly surface winds are also expected, with gusts around
30 knots from mid morning through late afternoon on Friday. No
clouds are expected with VFR prevailing through Friday evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KEAX 280512
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1112 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Quiet weather is expected through much of the forecast, punctuated by
a distinct warm up Friday into Saturday and strong frontal passage
Sunday with very cold air filling behind it.

For Friday through Saturday, southerly low-level flow is expected
with strong warm advection. 850mb temperatures climb into the 14C to
16C range, which would support temperatures in the 70s if mixing to
that level could occur. Rather, mixing will remain shallower and
closer to around 925mb, but this will still result in temperatures
that are about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Even
warmer conditions are expected Saturday as warm advection persist
resulting in surface temperatures in the 60s.

A strong cold front is expected to move through the area Sunday.
Models continue to be in good agreement showing this passage
sometime during the day. But the finer details of the timing remain
very uncertain. The GFS remains the fastest and as a result is the
coldest for Sunday high temperatures. The timing of the ECMWF and
the GEM are much more similar to each other and a bit slower.
Looking back to previous anomalously warm days, the GEM has been in
the top 3 regarding verification while the GFS usually ranks poorly
due to a cold bias. With the latest ECMWF supporting the GEM output,
confidence is higher in a slower frontal passage. This thinking
basically splits the forecast area in two from Schuyler county in NW
Missouri to Johnson county in Kansas. Very warm conditions are
expected ahead of the front with highs in the 60s likely from
Boonville to Clinton. Temperatures will very likely not budge from
overnight lows in far northwestern Missouri. So locations from
Maryville to Rockport should see highs in the mid 30s. It is also
entirely possible that the temperature gradient could be even more
extreme, perhaps close to 40 degrees around noon on Sunday. With such
a tight gradient, a difference of an hour or two in timing of the
front could result in a 20 degree temperature bust. Needless to say,
confidence through the center of the forecast area, in a southwest
to northeast orientation, is low as it`s just impossible to know
precisely where the front will be at a particular time during the
day.

Confidence in the forecast for the remainder of the extended remains
low as the GFS and ECMWF remain out of phase. Both models show a
strong upper low off the West Coast. The GFS is quick to break down
the western CONUS ridge and progress the trough east into the center
of the country by Wednesday night. The ECMWF maintains the upper
ridge over the Rockies through Wednesday night and as a result the
flow over the CONUS is out of phase. The impacts of this at the
surface are such that the GFS develops a lee trough with southerly
flow over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. With the ridge
depicted by the ECMWF, colder high pressure prevails over the area.
This results in a 30+ degree temperature spread between the two
models. Based on national guidance, preference seems to be in favor
of the ECMWF and its ensembles. So have modestly trended towards a
cooler solution for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1111 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF cycle with clr skies overnight
giving way to sct cirrus tomorrow morning. Winds will be out of the
south tonight btn 7-12kts before veering to the SW tomorrow morning
and increasing to 10-15kts with possible gusts to 20kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73









000
FXUS63 KLSX 280340
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
940 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 935 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Made an update earlier this evening for clouds and temps, and just
sent out another update. Temperatures fell pretty quickly across
northeast MO and western IL after sunset where there is some
residual snow cover and winds are very light within the center of
the retreating surface high. Meanwhile mid level warm advection
clouds have rapidly advanced across all but parts of south central
IL, and the clouds should overspread that area within the next
hour or so. Once the clouds move in, the temps should steady out
and then eventually rise a bit overnight as southeast winds
increase in the wake of the retreating surface high.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Surface ridge to begin moving off to the east tonight allowing winds
to become southerly by daybreak. Lingering mid and high clouds to
keep temperatures from dropping like a brick but will still see lows
in the upper teens to mid 20s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

On Friday, we begin to warm up as winds pickup from the south,
gusting to near 25 mph at times, under mostly sunny skies. Highs
will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Milder Friday night with lows
in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Saturday forecast a bit tricky. Models try to develop some light qpf
in warm sector ahead of next frontal boundary. Feel that it is
overdone and that it will be dry. Thus with models trying to develop
precipitation it is also indicating more clouds. Backed off on cloud
cover a bit to be partly cloudy across my area. Warm southerly winds
to persist so will see highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Saturday night models begin to bring frontal boundary into forecast
area. Sided with the slightly slower NAM/ECMWF solutions. So expect
another mild night in the low 40s to low 50s. On Sunday front to
move through forecast area. So will see a wide range in high
temperatures ranging from the mid 50s far north to the upper 60s far
south. Low level moisture on the increase ahead of front so could
see some light precipitation develop over southeast half of
forecast area. Then as front pushes south of forecast area late
Sunday into Sunday night precipitation to shift a bit further
south...but could see some activity as far north as I70 corridor.
With colder air filtering in will see rain mix with and snow at
times. On Monday, as surface ridge settles into region, some
lingering mixed precipitation across far southern portions of
forecast area as highs will only be in the upper 20s to upper 30s.

Beyond that, extended models have very different solutions for
weather across the area around mid week. So confidence is low an any
of them. GFS keeps zonal flow and wants to bring in precipitation
for Wednesday night and Thursday while ECMWF wants to bring in an
upper level trof centered over great lakes and strong surface ridge
which would mean dry and cold conditions. For now have slight
chance/low end chance pops for this period with highs in the 40s and
lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 625 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

VFR conditions and dry weather will continue thru the valid TAF
period. Main concern is winds, with a ridge of high pressure
currently over the area and this will move east shortly, resulting
in a light east or southeast flow initially...strengthening and
veering south on Friday...and then slackening off a bit while
remaining from the south Friday night. LLWS conditions should be
briefly met over in COU and UIN early Friday morning as a 40-45kt
low level jet forms and eventually mixes out as gusts later in the
day. May see LLWS conditions again later Friday night.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry weather thru the period. Look for
VFR CIGs with light easterly winds developing for most of tonight,
veering southerly and becoming gusty on Friday. A moderate south
wind will continue into Friday night. Marginal LLWS conditions
will be attained on Friday night and will merit some watching for
future issuances. Along with the low level jet developing for
Friday night, model data also suggests non-VFR stratus developing
late as well. Something to consider for the 06z issuance again.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 280340
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
940 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 935 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Made an update earlier this evening for clouds and temps, and just
sent out another update. Temperatures fell pretty quickly across
northeast MO and western IL after sunset where there is some
residual snow cover and winds are very light within the center of
the retreating surface high. Meanwhile mid level warm advection
clouds have rapidly advanced across all but parts of south central
IL, and the clouds should overspread that area within the next
hour or so. Once the clouds move in, the temps should steady out
and then eventually rise a bit overnight as southeast winds
increase in the wake of the retreating surface high.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Surface ridge to begin moving off to the east tonight allowing winds
to become southerly by daybreak. Lingering mid and high clouds to
keep temperatures from dropping like a brick but will still see lows
in the upper teens to mid 20s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

On Friday, we begin to warm up as winds pickup from the south,
gusting to near 25 mph at times, under mostly sunny skies. Highs
will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Milder Friday night with lows
in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Saturday forecast a bit tricky. Models try to develop some light qpf
in warm sector ahead of next frontal boundary. Feel that it is
overdone and that it will be dry. Thus with models trying to develop
precipitation it is also indicating more clouds. Backed off on cloud
cover a bit to be partly cloudy across my area. Warm southerly winds
to persist so will see highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Saturday night models begin to bring frontal boundary into forecast
area. Sided with the slightly slower NAM/ECMWF solutions. So expect
another mild night in the low 40s to low 50s. On Sunday front to
move through forecast area. So will see a wide range in high
temperatures ranging from the mid 50s far north to the upper 60s far
south. Low level moisture on the increase ahead of front so could
see some light precipitation develop over southeast half of
forecast area. Then as front pushes south of forecast area late
Sunday into Sunday night precipitation to shift a bit further
south...but could see some activity as far north as I70 corridor.
With colder air filtering in will see rain mix with and snow at
times. On Monday, as surface ridge settles into region, some
lingering mixed precipitation across far southern portions of
forecast area as highs will only be in the upper 20s to upper 30s.

Beyond that, extended models have very different solutions for
weather across the area around mid week. So confidence is low an any
of them. GFS keeps zonal flow and wants to bring in precipitation
for Wednesday night and Thursday while ECMWF wants to bring in an
upper level trof centered over great lakes and strong surface ridge
which would mean dry and cold conditions. For now have slight
chance/low end chance pops for this period with highs in the 40s and
lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 625 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

VFR conditions and dry weather will continue thru the valid TAF
period. Main concern is winds, with a ridge of high pressure
currently over the area and this will move east shortly, resulting
in a light east or southeast flow initially...strengthening and
veering south on Friday...and then slackening off a bit while
remaining from the south Friday night. LLWS conditions should be
briefly met over in COU and UIN early Friday morning as a 40-45kt
low level jet forms and eventually mixes out as gusts later in the
day. May see LLWS conditions again later Friday night.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry weather thru the period. Look for
VFR CIGs with light easterly winds developing for most of tonight,
veering southerly and becoming gusty on Friday. A moderate south
wind will continue into Friday night. Marginal LLWS conditions
will be attained on Friday night and will merit some watching for
future issuances. Along with the low level jet developing for
Friday night, model data also suggests non-VFR stratus developing
late as well. Something to consider for the 06z issuance again.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 280340
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
940 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 935 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Made an update earlier this evening for clouds and temps, and just
sent out another update. Temperatures fell pretty quickly across
northeast MO and western IL after sunset where there is some
residual snow cover and winds are very light within the center of
the retreating surface high. Meanwhile mid level warm advection
clouds have rapidly advanced across all but parts of south central
IL, and the clouds should overspread that area within the next
hour or so. Once the clouds move in, the temps should steady out
and then eventually rise a bit overnight as southeast winds
increase in the wake of the retreating surface high.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Surface ridge to begin moving off to the east tonight allowing winds
to become southerly by daybreak. Lingering mid and high clouds to
keep temperatures from dropping like a brick but will still see lows
in the upper teens to mid 20s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

On Friday, we begin to warm up as winds pickup from the south,
gusting to near 25 mph at times, under mostly sunny skies. Highs
will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Milder Friday night with lows
in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Saturday forecast a bit tricky. Models try to develop some light qpf
in warm sector ahead of next frontal boundary. Feel that it is
overdone and that it will be dry. Thus with models trying to develop
precipitation it is also indicating more clouds. Backed off on cloud
cover a bit to be partly cloudy across my area. Warm southerly winds
to persist so will see highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Saturday night models begin to bring frontal boundary into forecast
area. Sided with the slightly slower NAM/ECMWF solutions. So expect
another mild night in the low 40s to low 50s. On Sunday front to
move through forecast area. So will see a wide range in high
temperatures ranging from the mid 50s far north to the upper 60s far
south. Low level moisture on the increase ahead of front so could
see some light precipitation develop over southeast half of
forecast area. Then as front pushes south of forecast area late
Sunday into Sunday night precipitation to shift a bit further
south...but could see some activity as far north as I70 corridor.
With colder air filtering in will see rain mix with and snow at
times. On Monday, as surface ridge settles into region, some
lingering mixed precipitation across far southern portions of
forecast area as highs will only be in the upper 20s to upper 30s.

Beyond that, extended models have very different solutions for
weather across the area around mid week. So confidence is low an any
of them. GFS keeps zonal flow and wants to bring in precipitation
for Wednesday night and Thursday while ECMWF wants to bring in an
upper level trof centered over great lakes and strong surface ridge
which would mean dry and cold conditions. For now have slight
chance/low end chance pops for this period with highs in the 40s and
lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 625 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

VFR conditions and dry weather will continue thru the valid TAF
period. Main concern is winds, with a ridge of high pressure
currently over the area and this will move east shortly, resulting
in a light east or southeast flow initially...strengthening and
veering south on Friday...and then slackening off a bit while
remaining from the south Friday night. LLWS conditions should be
briefly met over in COU and UIN early Friday morning as a 40-45kt
low level jet forms and eventually mixes out as gusts later in the
day. May see LLWS conditions again later Friday night.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry weather thru the period. Look for
VFR CIGs with light easterly winds developing for most of tonight,
veering southerly and becoming gusty on Friday. A moderate south
wind will continue into Friday night. Marginal LLWS conditions
will be attained on Friday night and will merit some watching for
future issuances. Along with the low level jet developing for
Friday night, model data also suggests non-VFR stratus developing
late as well. Something to consider for the 06z issuance again.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 280340
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
940 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 935 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Made an update earlier this evening for clouds and temps, and just
sent out another update. Temperatures fell pretty quickly across
northeast MO and western IL after sunset where there is some
residual snow cover and winds are very light within the center of
the retreating surface high. Meanwhile mid level warm advection
clouds have rapidly advanced across all but parts of south central
IL, and the clouds should overspread that area within the next
hour or so. Once the clouds move in, the temps should steady out
and then eventually rise a bit overnight as southeast winds
increase in the wake of the retreating surface high.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Surface ridge to begin moving off to the east tonight allowing winds
to become southerly by daybreak. Lingering mid and high clouds to
keep temperatures from dropping like a brick but will still see lows
in the upper teens to mid 20s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

On Friday, we begin to warm up as winds pickup from the south,
gusting to near 25 mph at times, under mostly sunny skies. Highs
will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Milder Friday night with lows
in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Saturday forecast a bit tricky. Models try to develop some light qpf
in warm sector ahead of next frontal boundary. Feel that it is
overdone and that it will be dry. Thus with models trying to develop
precipitation it is also indicating more clouds. Backed off on cloud
cover a bit to be partly cloudy across my area. Warm southerly winds
to persist so will see highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Saturday night models begin to bring frontal boundary into forecast
area. Sided with the slightly slower NAM/ECMWF solutions. So expect
another mild night in the low 40s to low 50s. On Sunday front to
move through forecast area. So will see a wide range in high
temperatures ranging from the mid 50s far north to the upper 60s far
south. Low level moisture on the increase ahead of front so could
see some light precipitation develop over southeast half of
forecast area. Then as front pushes south of forecast area late
Sunday into Sunday night precipitation to shift a bit further
south...but could see some activity as far north as I70 corridor.
With colder air filtering in will see rain mix with and snow at
times. On Monday, as surface ridge settles into region, some
lingering mixed precipitation across far southern portions of
forecast area as highs will only be in the upper 20s to upper 30s.

Beyond that, extended models have very different solutions for
weather across the area around mid week. So confidence is low an any
of them. GFS keeps zonal flow and wants to bring in precipitation
for Wednesday night and Thursday while ECMWF wants to bring in an
upper level trof centered over great lakes and strong surface ridge
which would mean dry and cold conditions. For now have slight
chance/low end chance pops for this period with highs in the 40s and
lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 625 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

VFR conditions and dry weather will continue thru the valid TAF
period. Main concern is winds, with a ridge of high pressure
currently over the area and this will move east shortly, resulting
in a light east or southeast flow initially...strengthening and
veering south on Friday...and then slackening off a bit while
remaining from the south Friday night. LLWS conditions should be
briefly met over in COU and UIN early Friday morning as a 40-45kt
low level jet forms and eventually mixes out as gusts later in the
day. May see LLWS conditions again later Friday night.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry weather thru the period. Look for
VFR CIGs with light easterly winds developing for most of tonight,
veering southerly and becoming gusty on Friday. A moderate south
wind will continue into Friday night. Marginal LLWS conditions
will be attained on Friday night and will merit some watching for
future issuances. Along with the low level jet developing for
Friday night, model data also suggests non-VFR stratus developing
late as well. Something to consider for the 06z issuance again.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 280025
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
625 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Surface ridge to begin moving off to the east tonight allowing winds
to become southerly by daybreak. Lingering mid and high clouds to
keep temperatures from dropping like a brick but will still see lows
in the upper teens to mid 20s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

On Friday, we begin to warm up as winds pickup from the south,
gusting to near 25 mph at times, under mostly sunny skies. Highs
will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Milder Friday night with lows
in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Saturday forecast a bit tricky. Models try to develop some light qpf
in warm sector ahead of next frontal boundary. Feel that it is
overdone and that it will be dry. Thus with models trying to develop
precipitation it is also indicating more clouds. Backed off on cloud
cover a bit to be partly cloudy across my area. Warm southerly winds
to persist so will see highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Saturday night models begin to bring frontal boundary into forecast
area. Sided with the slightly slower NAM/ECMWF solutions. So expect
another mild night in the low 40s to low 50s. On Sunday front to
move through forecast area. So will see a wide range in high
temperatures ranging from the mid 50s far north to the upper 60s far
south. Low level moisture on the increase ahead of front so could
see some light precipitation develop over southeast half of
forecast area. Then as front pushes south of forecast area late
Sunday into Sunday night precipitation to shift a bit further
south...but could see some activity as far north as I70 corridor.
With colder air filtering in will see rain mix with and snow at
times. On Monday, as surface ridge settles into region, some
lingering mixed precipitation across far southern portions of
forecast area as highs will only be in the upper 20s to upper 30s.

Beyond that, extended models have very different solutions for
weather across the area around mid week. So confidence is low an any
of them. GFS keeps zonal flow and wants to bring in precipitation
for Wednesday night and Thursday while ECMWF wants to bring in an
upper level trof centered over great lakes and strong surface ridge
which would mean dry and cold conditions. For now have slight
chance/low end chance pops for this period with highs in the 40s and
lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 625 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

VFR conditions and dry weather will continue thru the valid TAF
period. Main concern is winds, with a ridge of high pressure
currently over the area and this will move east shortly, resulting
in a light east or southeast flow initially...strengthening and
veering south on Friday...and then slackening off a bit while
remaining from the south Friday night. LLWS conditions should be
briefly met over in COU and UIN early Friday morning as a 40-45kt
low level jet forms and eventually mixes out as gusts later in the
day. May see LLWS conditions again later Friday night.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry weather thru the period. Look for
VFR CIGs with light easterly winds developing for most of tonight,
veering southerly and becoming gusty on Friday. A moderate south
wind will continue into Friday night. Marginal LLWS conditions
will be attained on Friday night and will merit some watching for
future issuances. Along with the low level jet developing for
Friday night, model data also suggests non-VFR stratus developing
late as well. Something to consider for the 06z issuance again.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 280025
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
625 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Surface ridge to begin moving off to the east tonight allowing winds
to become southerly by daybreak. Lingering mid and high clouds to
keep temperatures from dropping like a brick but will still see lows
in the upper teens to mid 20s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

On Friday, we begin to warm up as winds pickup from the south,
gusting to near 25 mph at times, under mostly sunny skies. Highs
will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Milder Friday night with lows
in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Saturday forecast a bit tricky. Models try to develop some light qpf
in warm sector ahead of next frontal boundary. Feel that it is
overdone and that it will be dry. Thus with models trying to develop
precipitation it is also indicating more clouds. Backed off on cloud
cover a bit to be partly cloudy across my area. Warm southerly winds
to persist so will see highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Saturday night models begin to bring frontal boundary into forecast
area. Sided with the slightly slower NAM/ECMWF solutions. So expect
another mild night in the low 40s to low 50s. On Sunday front to
move through forecast area. So will see a wide range in high
temperatures ranging from the mid 50s far north to the upper 60s far
south. Low level moisture on the increase ahead of front so could
see some light precipitation develop over southeast half of
forecast area. Then as front pushes south of forecast area late
Sunday into Sunday night precipitation to shift a bit further
south...but could see some activity as far north as I70 corridor.
With colder air filtering in will see rain mix with and snow at
times. On Monday, as surface ridge settles into region, some
lingering mixed precipitation across far southern portions of
forecast area as highs will only be in the upper 20s to upper 30s.

Beyond that, extended models have very different solutions for
weather across the area around mid week. So confidence is low an any
of them. GFS keeps zonal flow and wants to bring in precipitation
for Wednesday night and Thursday while ECMWF wants to bring in an
upper level trof centered over great lakes and strong surface ridge
which would mean dry and cold conditions. For now have slight
chance/low end chance pops for this period with highs in the 40s and
lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 625 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

VFR conditions and dry weather will continue thru the valid TAF
period. Main concern is winds, with a ridge of high pressure
currently over the area and this will move east shortly, resulting
in a light east or southeast flow initially...strengthening and
veering south on Friday...and then slackening off a bit while
remaining from the south Friday night. LLWS conditions should be
briefly met over in COU and UIN early Friday morning as a 40-45kt
low level jet forms and eventually mixes out as gusts later in the
day. May see LLWS conditions again later Friday night.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry weather thru the period. Look for
VFR CIGs with light easterly winds developing for most of tonight,
veering southerly and becoming gusty on Friday. A moderate south
wind will continue into Friday night. Marginal LLWS conditions
will be attained on Friday night and will merit some watching for
future issuances. Along with the low level jet developing for
Friday night, model data also suggests non-VFR stratus developing
late as well. Something to consider for the 06z issuance again.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 280025
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
625 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Surface ridge to begin moving off to the east tonight allowing winds
to become southerly by daybreak. Lingering mid and high clouds to
keep temperatures from dropping like a brick but will still see lows
in the upper teens to mid 20s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

On Friday, we begin to warm up as winds pickup from the south,
gusting to near 25 mph at times, under mostly sunny skies. Highs
will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Milder Friday night with lows
in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Saturday forecast a bit tricky. Models try to develop some light qpf
in warm sector ahead of next frontal boundary. Feel that it is
overdone and that it will be dry. Thus with models trying to develop
precipitation it is also indicating more clouds. Backed off on cloud
cover a bit to be partly cloudy across my area. Warm southerly winds
to persist so will see highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Saturday night models begin to bring frontal boundary into forecast
area. Sided with the slightly slower NAM/ECMWF solutions. So expect
another mild night in the low 40s to low 50s. On Sunday front to
move through forecast area. So will see a wide range in high
temperatures ranging from the mid 50s far north to the upper 60s far
south. Low level moisture on the increase ahead of front so could
see some light precipitation develop over southeast half of
forecast area. Then as front pushes south of forecast area late
Sunday into Sunday night precipitation to shift a bit further
south...but could see some activity as far north as I70 corridor.
With colder air filtering in will see rain mix with and snow at
times. On Monday, as surface ridge settles into region, some
lingering mixed precipitation across far southern portions of
forecast area as highs will only be in the upper 20s to upper 30s.

Beyond that, extended models have very different solutions for
weather across the area around mid week. So confidence is low an any
of them. GFS keeps zonal flow and wants to bring in precipitation
for Wednesday night and Thursday while ECMWF wants to bring in an
upper level trof centered over great lakes and strong surface ridge
which would mean dry and cold conditions. For now have slight
chance/low end chance pops for this period with highs in the 40s and
lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 625 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

VFR conditions and dry weather will continue thru the valid TAF
period. Main concern is winds, with a ridge of high pressure
currently over the area and this will move east shortly, resulting
in a light east or southeast flow initially...strengthening and
veering south on Friday...and then slackening off a bit while
remaining from the south Friday night. LLWS conditions should be
briefly met over in COU and UIN early Friday morning as a 40-45kt
low level jet forms and eventually mixes out as gusts later in the
day. May see LLWS conditions again later Friday night.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry weather thru the period. Look for
VFR CIGs with light easterly winds developing for most of tonight,
veering southerly and becoming gusty on Friday. A moderate south
wind will continue into Friday night. Marginal LLWS conditions
will be attained on Friday night and will merit some watching for
future issuances. Along with the low level jet developing for
Friday night, model data also suggests non-VFR stratus developing
late as well. Something to consider for the 06z issuance again.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 280025
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
625 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Surface ridge to begin moving off to the east tonight allowing winds
to become southerly by daybreak. Lingering mid and high clouds to
keep temperatures from dropping like a brick but will still see lows
in the upper teens to mid 20s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

On Friday, we begin to warm up as winds pickup from the south,
gusting to near 25 mph at times, under mostly sunny skies. Highs
will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Milder Friday night with lows
in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Saturday forecast a bit tricky. Models try to develop some light qpf
in warm sector ahead of next frontal boundary. Feel that it is
overdone and that it will be dry. Thus with models trying to develop
precipitation it is also indicating more clouds. Backed off on cloud
cover a bit to be partly cloudy across my area. Warm southerly winds
to persist so will see highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Saturday night models begin to bring frontal boundary into forecast
area. Sided with the slightly slower NAM/ECMWF solutions. So expect
another mild night in the low 40s to low 50s. On Sunday front to
move through forecast area. So will see a wide range in high
temperatures ranging from the mid 50s far north to the upper 60s far
south. Low level moisture on the increase ahead of front so could
see some light precipitation develop over southeast half of
forecast area. Then as front pushes south of forecast area late
Sunday into Sunday night precipitation to shift a bit further
south...but could see some activity as far north as I70 corridor.
With colder air filtering in will see rain mix with and snow at
times. On Monday, as surface ridge settles into region, some
lingering mixed precipitation across far southern portions of
forecast area as highs will only be in the upper 20s to upper 30s.

Beyond that, extended models have very different solutions for
weather across the area around mid week. So confidence is low an any
of them. GFS keeps zonal flow and wants to bring in precipitation
for Wednesday night and Thursday while ECMWF wants to bring in an
upper level trof centered over great lakes and strong surface ridge
which would mean dry and cold conditions. For now have slight
chance/low end chance pops for this period with highs in the 40s and
lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 625 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

VFR conditions and dry weather will continue thru the valid TAF
period. Main concern is winds, with a ridge of high pressure
currently over the area and this will move east shortly, resulting
in a light east or southeast flow initially...strengthening and
veering south on Friday...and then slackening off a bit while
remaining from the south Friday night. LLWS conditions should be
briefly met over in COU and UIN early Friday morning as a 40-45kt
low level jet forms and eventually mixes out as gusts later in the
day. May see LLWS conditions again later Friday night.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry weather thru the period. Look for
VFR CIGs with light easterly winds developing for most of tonight,
veering southerly and becoming gusty on Friday. A moderate south
wind will continue into Friday night. Marginal LLWS conditions
will be attained on Friday night and will merit some watching for
future issuances. Along with the low level jet developing for
Friday night, model data also suggests non-VFR stratus developing
late as well. Something to consider for the 06z issuance again.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KEAX 272312
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
512 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Quiet weather is expected through much of the forecast, punctuated by
a distinct warm up Friday into Saturday and strong frontal passage
Sunday with very cold air filling behind it.

For Friday through Saturday, southerly low-level flow is expected
with strong warm advection. 850mb temperatures climb into the 14C to
16C range, which would support temperatures in the 70s if mixing to
that level could occur. Rather, mixing will remain shallower and
closer to around 925mb, but this will still result in temperatures
that are about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Even
warmer conditions are expected Saturday as warm advection persist
resulting in surface temperatures in the 60s.

A strong cold front is expected to move through the area Sunday.
Models continue to be in good agreement showing this passage
sometime during the day. But the finer details of the timing remain
very uncertain. The GFS remains the fastest and as a result is the
coldest for Sunday high temperatures. The timing of the ECMWF and
the GEM are much more similar to each other and a bit slower.
Looking back to previous anomalously warm days, the GEM has been in
the top 3 regarding verification while the GFS usually ranks poorly
due to a cold bias. With the latest ECMWF supporting the GEM output,
confidence is higher in a slower frontal passage. This thinking
basically splits the forecast area in two from Schuyler county in NW
Missouri to Johnson county in Kansas. Very warm conditions are
expected ahead of the front with highs in the 60s likely from
Boonville to Clinton. Temperatures will very likely not budge from
overnight lows in far northwestern Missouri. So locations from
Maryville to Rockport should see highs in the mid 30s. It is also
entirely possible that the temperature gradient could be even more
extreme, perhaps close to 40 degrees around noon on Sunday. With such
a tight gradient, a difference of an hour or two in timing of the
front could result in a 20 degree temperature bust. Needless to say,
confidence through the center of the forecast area, in a southwest
to northeast orientation, is low as it`s just impossible to know
precisely where the front will be at a particular time during the
day.

Confidence in the forecast for the remainder of the extended remains
low as the GFS and ECMWF remain out of phase. Both models show a
strong upper low off the West Coast. The GFS is quick to break down
the western CONUS ridge and progress the trough east into the center
of the country by Wednesday night. The ECMWF maintains the upper
ridge over the Rockies through Wednesday night and as a result the
flow over the CONUS is out of phase. The impacts of this at the
surface are such that the GFS develops a lee trough with southerly
flow over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. With the ridge
depicted by the ECMWF, colder high pressure prevails over the area.
This results in a 30+ degree temperature spread between the two
models. Based on national guidance, preference seems to be in favor
of the ECMWF and its ensembles. So have modestly trended towards a
cooler solution for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 512 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF period with sct mid-lvl clouds
giving way to clr skies late tonight. Otrw...expect just sct high
cirrus thru the day tomorrow. Winds will be out of the SE tonight
around 10kts and will veer to the south after midnight. Tomorrow
morning winds will cont to veer to the SW and increase to around
15kts with a few gusts to around 20kts possible.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 272312
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
512 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Quiet weather is expected through much of the forecast, punctuated by
a distinct warm up Friday into Saturday and strong frontal passage
Sunday with very cold air filling behind it.

For Friday through Saturday, southerly low-level flow is expected
with strong warm advection. 850mb temperatures climb into the 14C to
16C range, which would support temperatures in the 70s if mixing to
that level could occur. Rather, mixing will remain shallower and
closer to around 925mb, but this will still result in temperatures
that are about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Even
warmer conditions are expected Saturday as warm advection persist
resulting in surface temperatures in the 60s.

A strong cold front is expected to move through the area Sunday.
Models continue to be in good agreement showing this passage
sometime during the day. But the finer details of the timing remain
very uncertain. The GFS remains the fastest and as a result is the
coldest for Sunday high temperatures. The timing of the ECMWF and
the GEM are much more similar to each other and a bit slower.
Looking back to previous anomalously warm days, the GEM has been in
the top 3 regarding verification while the GFS usually ranks poorly
due to a cold bias. With the latest ECMWF supporting the GEM output,
confidence is higher in a slower frontal passage. This thinking
basically splits the forecast area in two from Schuyler county in NW
Missouri to Johnson county in Kansas. Very warm conditions are
expected ahead of the front with highs in the 60s likely from
Boonville to Clinton. Temperatures will very likely not budge from
overnight lows in far northwestern Missouri. So locations from
Maryville to Rockport should see highs in the mid 30s. It is also
entirely possible that the temperature gradient could be even more
extreme, perhaps close to 40 degrees around noon on Sunday. With such
a tight gradient, a difference of an hour or two in timing of the
front could result in a 20 degree temperature bust. Needless to say,
confidence through the center of the forecast area, in a southwest
to northeast orientation, is low as it`s just impossible to know
precisely where the front will be at a particular time during the
day.

Confidence in the forecast for the remainder of the extended remains
low as the GFS and ECMWF remain out of phase. Both models show a
strong upper low off the West Coast. The GFS is quick to break down
the western CONUS ridge and progress the trough east into the center
of the country by Wednesday night. The ECMWF maintains the upper
ridge over the Rockies through Wednesday night and as a result the
flow over the CONUS is out of phase. The impacts of this at the
surface are such that the GFS develops a lee trough with southerly
flow over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. With the ridge
depicted by the ECMWF, colder high pressure prevails over the area.
This results in a 30+ degree temperature spread between the two
models. Based on national guidance, preference seems to be in favor
of the ECMWF and its ensembles. So have modestly trended towards a
cooler solution for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 512 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF period with sct mid-lvl clouds
giving way to clr skies late tonight. Otrw...expect just sct high
cirrus thru the day tomorrow. Winds will be out of the SE tonight
around 10kts and will veer to the south after midnight. Tomorrow
morning winds will cont to veer to the SW and increase to around
15kts with a few gusts to around 20kts possible.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 272312
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
512 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Quiet weather is expected through much of the forecast, punctuated by
a distinct warm up Friday into Saturday and strong frontal passage
Sunday with very cold air filling behind it.

For Friday through Saturday, southerly low-level flow is expected
with strong warm advection. 850mb temperatures climb into the 14C to
16C range, which would support temperatures in the 70s if mixing to
that level could occur. Rather, mixing will remain shallower and
closer to around 925mb, but this will still result in temperatures
that are about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Even
warmer conditions are expected Saturday as warm advection persist
resulting in surface temperatures in the 60s.

A strong cold front is expected to move through the area Sunday.
Models continue to be in good agreement showing this passage
sometime during the day. But the finer details of the timing remain
very uncertain. The GFS remains the fastest and as a result is the
coldest for Sunday high temperatures. The timing of the ECMWF and
the GEM are much more similar to each other and a bit slower.
Looking back to previous anomalously warm days, the GEM has been in
the top 3 regarding verification while the GFS usually ranks poorly
due to a cold bias. With the latest ECMWF supporting the GEM output,
confidence is higher in a slower frontal passage. This thinking
basically splits the forecast area in two from Schuyler county in NW
Missouri to Johnson county in Kansas. Very warm conditions are
expected ahead of the front with highs in the 60s likely from
Boonville to Clinton. Temperatures will very likely not budge from
overnight lows in far northwestern Missouri. So locations from
Maryville to Rockport should see highs in the mid 30s. It is also
entirely possible that the temperature gradient could be even more
extreme, perhaps close to 40 degrees around noon on Sunday. With such
a tight gradient, a difference of an hour or two in timing of the
front could result in a 20 degree temperature bust. Needless to say,
confidence through the center of the forecast area, in a southwest
to northeast orientation, is low as it`s just impossible to know
precisely where the front will be at a particular time during the
day.

Confidence in the forecast for the remainder of the extended remains
low as the GFS and ECMWF remain out of phase. Both models show a
strong upper low off the West Coast. The GFS is quick to break down
the western CONUS ridge and progress the trough east into the center
of the country by Wednesday night. The ECMWF maintains the upper
ridge over the Rockies through Wednesday night and as a result the
flow over the CONUS is out of phase. The impacts of this at the
surface are such that the GFS develops a lee trough with southerly
flow over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. With the ridge
depicted by the ECMWF, colder high pressure prevails over the area.
This results in a 30+ degree temperature spread between the two
models. Based on national guidance, preference seems to be in favor
of the ECMWF and its ensembles. So have modestly trended towards a
cooler solution for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 512 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF period with sct mid-lvl clouds
giving way to clr skies late tonight. Otrw...expect just sct high
cirrus thru the day tomorrow. Winds will be out of the SE tonight
around 10kts and will veer to the south after midnight. Tomorrow
morning winds will cont to veer to the SW and increase to around
15kts with a few gusts to around 20kts possible.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 272312
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
512 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Quiet weather is expected through much of the forecast, punctuated by
a distinct warm up Friday into Saturday and strong frontal passage
Sunday with very cold air filling behind it.

For Friday through Saturday, southerly low-level flow is expected
with strong warm advection. 850mb temperatures climb into the 14C to
16C range, which would support temperatures in the 70s if mixing to
that level could occur. Rather, mixing will remain shallower and
closer to around 925mb, but this will still result in temperatures
that are about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Even
warmer conditions are expected Saturday as warm advection persist
resulting in surface temperatures in the 60s.

A strong cold front is expected to move through the area Sunday.
Models continue to be in good agreement showing this passage
sometime during the day. But the finer details of the timing remain
very uncertain. The GFS remains the fastest and as a result is the
coldest for Sunday high temperatures. The timing of the ECMWF and
the GEM are much more similar to each other and a bit slower.
Looking back to previous anomalously warm days, the GEM has been in
the top 3 regarding verification while the GFS usually ranks poorly
due to a cold bias. With the latest ECMWF supporting the GEM output,
confidence is higher in a slower frontal passage. This thinking
basically splits the forecast area in two from Schuyler county in NW
Missouri to Johnson county in Kansas. Very warm conditions are
expected ahead of the front with highs in the 60s likely from
Boonville to Clinton. Temperatures will very likely not budge from
overnight lows in far northwestern Missouri. So locations from
Maryville to Rockport should see highs in the mid 30s. It is also
entirely possible that the temperature gradient could be even more
extreme, perhaps close to 40 degrees around noon on Sunday. With such
a tight gradient, a difference of an hour or two in timing of the
front could result in a 20 degree temperature bust. Needless to say,
confidence through the center of the forecast area, in a southwest
to northeast orientation, is low as it`s just impossible to know
precisely where the front will be at a particular time during the
day.

Confidence in the forecast for the remainder of the extended remains
low as the GFS and ECMWF remain out of phase. Both models show a
strong upper low off the West Coast. The GFS is quick to break down
the western CONUS ridge and progress the trough east into the center
of the country by Wednesday night. The ECMWF maintains the upper
ridge over the Rockies through Wednesday night and as a result the
flow over the CONUS is out of phase. The impacts of this at the
surface are such that the GFS develops a lee trough with southerly
flow over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. With the ridge
depicted by the ECMWF, colder high pressure prevails over the area.
This results in a 30+ degree temperature spread between the two
models. Based on national guidance, preference seems to be in favor
of the ECMWF and its ensembles. So have modestly trended towards a
cooler solution for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 512 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF period with sct mid-lvl clouds
giving way to clr skies late tonight. Otrw...expect just sct high
cirrus thru the day tomorrow. Winds will be out of the SE tonight
around 10kts and will veer to the south after midnight. Tomorrow
morning winds will cont to veer to the SW and increase to around
15kts with a few gusts to around 20kts possible.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KSGF 272251
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
451 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

...00Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Surface high pressure is currently located over the central U.S.
with an upper level trough over the east coast and upper level
ridge along the west coast. Cool conditions are occurring today
with mid afternoon temperatures generally in the middle 30s to the
lower 40s.

The area of high pressure will slide off to the east and southerly
winds will return across the area overnight into Friday.
Temperatures will likely drop quickly this evening with the high
overhead, but then steady off or rise overnight as the south winds
kick in.

A warming trend will start on Friday as the upper level ridge
moves east towards the region. Highs will warm into the 50s, with
portions of southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri
approaching the 60 degree mark. Southerly winds will increase and
become gusty on Friday as the area of high pressure moves off to
the east and surface low pressure develops across the plains.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The upper level ridge will build over the central U.S. on
Saturday. Low level moisture will start to spread into the region
Friday night into Saturday resulting in a stratus cloud deck
across the region. There could be some build down of this stratus
deck resulting in patchy fog Saturday morning. There will also be
some weak isentropic lift across the area and could see some
patchy drizzle overnight Friday into Saturday morning. With the
warmer air mass and increasing clouds lows will be in the 40s
Friday night. Temperatures will likely be slow to warm on Saturday
as clouds blanket the area but the clouds will eventually clear
Saturday afternoon and temperatures will shoot well into the 60s.

The warm conditions will remain into Sunday as lows only drop into
the 50s Saturday night and highs once again warm into the 60s on
Sunday. May have to watch for the low level clouds developing
again Saturday night into Sunday morning as low level moisture
continues to spread into the region.

An upper level shortwave trough will then track east across the
northern plains into the great lakes region Sunday into Sunday
night. This will push a cold front through the region late Sunday
into Sunday night. The mid levels of the atmosphere will be dry and
think will keep the precipitation light but low level moisture
will remain higher and think there will be some showers along the
front as it passes through the region. There will also be some
light rain or drizzle that occurs behind the front overnight
Sunday into Monday morning. Will have to watch how quickly
temperatures drop behind the front to see if any freezing rain
will be possible or not. This will be brief and not expected a
lot of impacts as drier air in the low levels will spread into the
region behind the front limiting the precipitation potential
farther behind the front.

Chilly conditions can be expected Sunday night into Monday night
as lows drop into the 20s and highs warm into the 30s behind the
front. A warming trend will then occur into the middle of the week
with highs warming back into the 40s and 50s by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 448 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Winds will
become southerly and increase through tonight, with LLWS
developing at all sites after midnight. Windy conditions are then
expected on Friday, with southwest winds gusting to between 25 and
30 KT at times.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Boxell






000
FXUS63 KEAX 272116
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
316 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Quiet weather is expected through much of the forecast, punctuated by
a distinct warm up Friday into Saturday and strong frontal passage
Sunday with very cold air filling behind it.

For Friday through Saturday, southerly low-level flow is expected
with strong warm advection. 850mb temperatures climb into the 14C to
16C range, which would support temperatures in the 70s if mixing to
that level could occur. Rather, mixing will remain shallower and
closer to around 925mb, but this will still result in temperatures
that are about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Even
warmer conditions are expected Saturday as warm advection persist
resulting in surface temperatures in the 60s.

A strong cold front is expected to move through the area Sunday.
Models continue to be in good agreement showing this passage
sometime during the day. But the finer details of the timing remain
very uncertain. The GFS remains the fastest and as a result is the
coldest for Sunday high temperatures. The timing of the ECMWF and
the GEM are much more similar to each other and a bit slower.
Looking back to previous anomalously warm days, the GEM has been in
the top 3 regarding verification while the GFS usually ranks poorly
due to a cold bias. With the latest ECMWF supporting the GEM output,
confidence is higher in a slower frontal passage. This thinking
basically splits the forecast area in two from Schuyler county in NW
Missouri to Johnson county in Kansas. Very warm conditions are
expected ahead of the front with highs in the 60s likely from
Boonville to Clinton. Temperatures will very likely not budge from
overnight lows in far northwestern Missouri. So locations from
Maryville to Rockport should see highs in the mid 30s. It is also
entirely possible that the temperature gradient could be even more
extreme, perhaps close to 40 degrees around noon on Sunday. With such
a tight gradient, a difference of an hour or two in timing of the
front could result in a 20 degree temperature bust. Needless to say,
confidence through the center of the forecast area, in a southwest
to northeast orientation, is low as it`s just impossible to know
precisely where the front will be at a particular time during the
day.

Confidence in the forecast for the remainder of the extended remains
low as the GFS and ECMWF remain out of phase. Both models show a
strong upper low off the West Coast. The GFS is quick to break down
the western CONUS ridge and progress the trough east into the center
of the country by Wednesday night. The ECMWF maintains the upper
ridge over the Rockies through Wednesday night and as a result the
flow over the CONUS is out of phase. The impacts of this at the
surface are such that the GFS develops a lee trough with southerly
flow over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. With the ridge
depicted by the ECMWF, colder high pressure prevails over the area.
This results in a 30+ degree temperature spread between the two
models. Based on national guidance, preference seems to be in favor
of the ECMWF and its ensembles. So have modestly trended towards a
cooler solution for now.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1053 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. Mid-level
clouds will remain in place through much of Thursday prior to
scattering out overnight. Winds will vary initially while
becoming southeasterly and increasing slightly with time.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KEAX 272116
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
316 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Quiet weather is expected through much of the forecast, punctuated by
a distinct warm up Friday into Saturday and strong frontal passage
Sunday with very cold air filling behind it.

For Friday through Saturday, southerly low-level flow is expected
with strong warm advection. 850mb temperatures climb into the 14C to
16C range, which would support temperatures in the 70s if mixing to
that level could occur. Rather, mixing will remain shallower and
closer to around 925mb, but this will still result in temperatures
that are about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Even
warmer conditions are expected Saturday as warm advection persist
resulting in surface temperatures in the 60s.

A strong cold front is expected to move through the area Sunday.
Models continue to be in good agreement showing this passage
sometime during the day. But the finer details of the timing remain
very uncertain. The GFS remains the fastest and as a result is the
coldest for Sunday high temperatures. The timing of the ECMWF and
the GEM are much more similar to each other and a bit slower.
Looking back to previous anomalously warm days, the GEM has been in
the top 3 regarding verification while the GFS usually ranks poorly
due to a cold bias. With the latest ECMWF supporting the GEM output,
confidence is higher in a slower frontal passage. This thinking
basically splits the forecast area in two from Schuyler county in NW
Missouri to Johnson county in Kansas. Very warm conditions are
expected ahead of the front with highs in the 60s likely from
Boonville to Clinton. Temperatures will very likely not budge from
overnight lows in far northwestern Missouri. So locations from
Maryville to Rockport should see highs in the mid 30s. It is also
entirely possible that the temperature gradient could be even more
extreme, perhaps close to 40 degrees around noon on Sunday. With such
a tight gradient, a difference of an hour or two in timing of the
front could result in a 20 degree temperature bust. Needless to say,
confidence through the center of the forecast area, in a southwest
to northeast orientation, is low as it`s just impossible to know
precisely where the front will be at a particular time during the
day.

Confidence in the forecast for the remainder of the extended remains
low as the GFS and ECMWF remain out of phase. Both models show a
strong upper low off the West Coast. The GFS is quick to break down
the western CONUS ridge and progress the trough east into the center
of the country by Wednesday night. The ECMWF maintains the upper
ridge over the Rockies through Wednesday night and as a result the
flow over the CONUS is out of phase. The impacts of this at the
surface are such that the GFS develops a lee trough with southerly
flow over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. With the ridge
depicted by the ECMWF, colder high pressure prevails over the area.
This results in a 30+ degree temperature spread between the two
models. Based on national guidance, preference seems to be in favor
of the ECMWF and its ensembles. So have modestly trended towards a
cooler solution for now.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1053 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. Mid-level
clouds will remain in place through much of Thursday prior to
scattering out overnight. Winds will vary initially while
becoming southeasterly and increasing slightly with time.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KSGF 272115
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
315 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Surface high pressure is currently located over the central U.S.
with an upper level trough over the east coast and upper level
ridge along the west coast. Cool conditions are occurring today
with mid afternoon temperatures generally in the middle 30s to the
lower 40s.

The area of high pressure will slide off to the east and southerly
winds will return across the area overnight into Friday.
Temperatures will likely drop quickly this evening with the high
overhead, but then steady off or rise overnight as the south winds
kick in.

A warming trend will start on Friday as the upper level ridge
moves east towards the region. Highs will warm into the 50s, with
portions of southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri
approaching the 60 degree mark. Southerly winds will increase and
become gusty on Friday as the area of high pressure moves off to
the east and surface low pressure develops across the plains.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The upper level ridge will build over the central U.S. on
Saturday. Low level moisture will start to spread into the region
Friday night into Saturday resulting in a stratus cloud deck
across the region. There could be some build down of this stratus
deck resulting in patchy fog Saturday morning. There will also be
some weak isentropic lift across the area and could see some
patchy drizzle overnight Friday into Saturday morning. With the
warmer air mass and increasing clouds lows will be in the 40s
Friday night. Temperatures will likely be slow to warm on Saturday
as clouds blanket the area but the clouds will eventually clear
Saturday afternoon and temperatures will shoot well into the 60s.

The warm conditions will remain into Sunday as lows only drop into
the 50s Saturday night and highs once again warm into the 60s on
Sunday. May have to watch for the low level clouds developing
again Saturday night into Sunday morning as low level moisture
continues to spread into the region.

An upper level shortwave trough will then track east across the
northern plains into the great lakes region Sunday into Sunday
night. This will push a cold front through the region late Sunday
into Sunday night. The mid levels of the atmosphere will be dry and
think will keep the precipitation light but low level moisture
will remain higher and think there will be some showers along the
front as it passes through the region. There will also be some
light rain or drizzle that occurs behind the front overnight
Sunday into Monday morning. Will have to watch how quickly
temperatures drop behind the front to see if any freezing rain
will be possible or not. This will be brief and not expected a
lot of impacts as drier air in the low levels will spread into the
region behind the front limiting the precipitation potential
farther behind the front.

Chilly conditions can be expected Sunday night into Monday night
as lows drop into the 20s and highs warm into the 30s behind the
front. A warming trend will then occur into the middle of the week
with highs warming back into the 40s and 50s by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Pilots can expect improving flight conditions at area terminals this
afternoon with VFR conditions prevailing through tonight.

Surface winds will be light today as surface high pressure moves
off to the east. Southerly winds will develop tonight and increase
on Friday. Frequent surface gusts over 20 kts can be expected
Friday. Low level wind shear will develop tonight into early
Friday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Foster











000
FXUS63 KSGF 272115
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
315 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Surface high pressure is currently located over the central U.S.
with an upper level trough over the east coast and upper level
ridge along the west coast. Cool conditions are occurring today
with mid afternoon temperatures generally in the middle 30s to the
lower 40s.

The area of high pressure will slide off to the east and southerly
winds will return across the area overnight into Friday.
Temperatures will likely drop quickly this evening with the high
overhead, but then steady off or rise overnight as the south winds
kick in.

A warming trend will start on Friday as the upper level ridge
moves east towards the region. Highs will warm into the 50s, with
portions of southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri
approaching the 60 degree mark. Southerly winds will increase and
become gusty on Friday as the area of high pressure moves off to
the east and surface low pressure develops across the plains.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The upper level ridge will build over the central U.S. on
Saturday. Low level moisture will start to spread into the region
Friday night into Saturday resulting in a stratus cloud deck
across the region. There could be some build down of this stratus
deck resulting in patchy fog Saturday morning. There will also be
some weak isentropic lift across the area and could see some
patchy drizzle overnight Friday into Saturday morning. With the
warmer air mass and increasing clouds lows will be in the 40s
Friday night. Temperatures will likely be slow to warm on Saturday
as clouds blanket the area but the clouds will eventually clear
Saturday afternoon and temperatures will shoot well into the 60s.

The warm conditions will remain into Sunday as lows only drop into
the 50s Saturday night and highs once again warm into the 60s on
Sunday. May have to watch for the low level clouds developing
again Saturday night into Sunday morning as low level moisture
continues to spread into the region.

An upper level shortwave trough will then track east across the
northern plains into the great lakes region Sunday into Sunday
night. This will push a cold front through the region late Sunday
into Sunday night. The mid levels of the atmosphere will be dry and
think will keep the precipitation light but low level moisture
will remain higher and think there will be some showers along the
front as it passes through the region. There will also be some
light rain or drizzle that occurs behind the front overnight
Sunday into Monday morning. Will have to watch how quickly
temperatures drop behind the front to see if any freezing rain
will be possible or not. This will be brief and not expected a
lot of impacts as drier air in the low levels will spread into the
region behind the front limiting the precipitation potential
farther behind the front.

Chilly conditions can be expected Sunday night into Monday night
as lows drop into the 20s and highs warm into the 30s behind the
front. A warming trend will then occur into the middle of the week
with highs warming back into the 40s and 50s by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Pilots can expect improving flight conditions at area terminals this
afternoon with VFR conditions prevailing through tonight.

Surface winds will be light today as surface high pressure moves
off to the east. Southerly winds will develop tonight and increase
on Friday. Frequent surface gusts over 20 kts can be expected
Friday. Low level wind shear will develop tonight into early
Friday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Foster










000
FXUS63 KLSX 272049
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
249 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Surface ridge to begin moving off to the east tonight allowing winds
to become southerly by daybreak. Lingering mid and high clouds to
keep temperatures from dropping like a brick but will still see lows
in the upper teens to mid 20s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

On Friday, we begin to warm up as winds pickup from the south,
gusting to near 25 mph at times, under mostly sunny skies. Highs
will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Milder Friday night with lows
in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Saturday forecast a bit tricky. Models try to develop some light qpf
in warm sector ahead of next frontal boundary. Feel that it is
overdone and that it will be dry. Thus with models trying to develop
precipitation it is also indicating more clouds. Backed off on cloud
cover a bit to be partly cloudy across my area. Warm southerly winds
to persist so will see highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Saturday night models begin to bring frontal boundary into forecast
area. Sided with the slightly slower NAM/ECMWF solutions. So expect
another mild night in the low 40s to low 50s. On Sunday front to
move through forecast area. So will see a wide range in high
temperatures ranging from the mid 50s far north to the upper 60s far
south. Low level moisture on the increase ahead of front so could
see some light precipitation develop over southeast half of
forecast area. Then as front pushes south of forecast area late
Sunday into Sunday night precipitation to shift a bit further
south...but could see some activity as far north as I70 corridor.
With colder air filtering in will see rain mix with and snow at
times. On Monday, as surface ridge settles into region, some
lingering mixed precipitation across far southern portions of
forecast area as highs will only be in the upper 20s to upper 30s.

Beyond that, extended models have very different solutions for
weather across the area around mid week. So confidence is low an any
of them. GFS keeps zonal flow and wants to bring in precipitation
for Wednesday night and Thursday while ECMWF wants to bring in an
upper level trof centered over great lakes and strong surface ridge
which would mean dry and cold conditions. For now have slight
chance/low end chance pops for this period with highs in the 40s and
lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1123 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

MVFR ceilings should move east of all TAF sites by around 22Z. VFR
cloud deck near 7000 feet then approaches from the west this
evening. Northwest winds will diminish rapidly this afternoon and
become light and variable overnight as surface ridge moves
overhead. Quick return to southeasterly flow on Friday with VFR
conditions expected.

Specifics for KSTL: MVFR ceilings should clear KSTL TAF site by
around 22Z. An area of VFR ceilings will move in after 00Z. Northwest
winds will diminish this evening. As surface high pressure moves
quickly off to the east, southeast winds will return by around
14Z.

Browning
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 272049
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
249 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Surface ridge to begin moving off to the east tonight allowing winds
to become southerly by daybreak. Lingering mid and high clouds to
keep temperatures from dropping like a brick but will still see lows
in the upper teens to mid 20s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

On Friday, we begin to warm up as winds pickup from the south,
gusting to near 25 mph at times, under mostly sunny skies. Highs
will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Milder Friday night with lows
in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Saturday forecast a bit tricky. Models try to develop some light qpf
in warm sector ahead of next frontal boundary. Feel that it is
overdone and that it will be dry. Thus with models trying to develop
precipitation it is also indicating more clouds. Backed off on cloud
cover a bit to be partly cloudy across my area. Warm southerly winds
to persist so will see highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Saturday night models begin to bring frontal boundary into forecast
area. Sided with the slightly slower NAM/ECMWF solutions. So expect
another mild night in the low 40s to low 50s. On Sunday front to
move through forecast area. So will see a wide range in high
temperatures ranging from the mid 50s far north to the upper 60s far
south. Low level moisture on the increase ahead of front so could
see some light precipitation develop over southeast half of
forecast area. Then as front pushes south of forecast area late
Sunday into Sunday night precipitation to shift a bit further
south...but could see some activity as far north as I70 corridor.
With colder air filtering in will see rain mix with and snow at
times. On Monday, as surface ridge settles into region, some
lingering mixed precipitation across far southern portions of
forecast area as highs will only be in the upper 20s to upper 30s.

Beyond that, extended models have very different solutions for
weather across the area around mid week. So confidence is low an any
of them. GFS keeps zonal flow and wants to bring in precipitation
for Wednesday night and Thursday while ECMWF wants to bring in an
upper level trof centered over great lakes and strong surface ridge
which would mean dry and cold conditions. For now have slight
chance/low end chance pops for this period with highs in the 40s and
lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1123 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

MVFR ceilings should move east of all TAF sites by around 22Z. VFR
cloud deck near 7000 feet then approaches from the west this
evening. Northwest winds will diminish rapidly this afternoon and
become light and variable overnight as surface ridge moves
overhead. Quick return to southeasterly flow on Friday with VFR
conditions expected.

Specifics for KSTL: MVFR ceilings should clear KSTL TAF site by
around 22Z. An area of VFR ceilings will move in after 00Z. Northwest
winds will diminish this evening. As surface high pressure moves
quickly off to the east, southeast winds will return by around
14Z.

Browning
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 272049
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
249 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Surface ridge to begin moving off to the east tonight allowing winds
to become southerly by daybreak. Lingering mid and high clouds to
keep temperatures from dropping like a brick but will still see lows
in the upper teens to mid 20s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

On Friday, we begin to warm up as winds pickup from the south,
gusting to near 25 mph at times, under mostly sunny skies. Highs
will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Milder Friday night with lows
in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Saturday forecast a bit tricky. Models try to develop some light qpf
in warm sector ahead of next frontal boundary. Feel that it is
overdone and that it will be dry. Thus with models trying to develop
precipitation it is also indicating more clouds. Backed off on cloud
cover a bit to be partly cloudy across my area. Warm southerly winds
to persist so will see highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Saturday night models begin to bring frontal boundary into forecast
area. Sided with the slightly slower NAM/ECMWF solutions. So expect
another mild night in the low 40s to low 50s. On Sunday front to
move through forecast area. So will see a wide range in high
temperatures ranging from the mid 50s far north to the upper 60s far
south. Low level moisture on the increase ahead of front so could
see some light precipitation develop over southeast half of
forecast area. Then as front pushes south of forecast area late
Sunday into Sunday night precipitation to shift a bit further
south...but could see some activity as far north as I70 corridor.
With colder air filtering in will see rain mix with and snow at
times. On Monday, as surface ridge settles into region, some
lingering mixed precipitation across far southern portions of
forecast area as highs will only be in the upper 20s to upper 30s.

Beyond that, extended models have very different solutions for
weather across the area around mid week. So confidence is low an any
of them. GFS keeps zonal flow and wants to bring in precipitation
for Wednesday night and Thursday while ECMWF wants to bring in an
upper level trof centered over great lakes and strong surface ridge
which would mean dry and cold conditions. For now have slight
chance/low end chance pops for this period with highs in the 40s and
lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1123 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

MVFR ceilings should move east of all TAF sites by around 22Z. VFR
cloud deck near 7000 feet then approaches from the west this
evening. Northwest winds will diminish rapidly this afternoon and
become light and variable overnight as surface ridge moves
overhead. Quick return to southeasterly flow on Friday with VFR
conditions expected.

Specifics for KSTL: MVFR ceilings should clear KSTL TAF site by
around 22Z. An area of VFR ceilings will move in after 00Z. Northwest
winds will diminish this evening. As surface high pressure moves
quickly off to the east, southeast winds will return by around
14Z.

Browning
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 272049
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
249 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Surface ridge to begin moving off to the east tonight allowing winds
to become southerly by daybreak. Lingering mid and high clouds to
keep temperatures from dropping like a brick but will still see lows
in the upper teens to mid 20s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

On Friday, we begin to warm up as winds pickup from the south,
gusting to near 25 mph at times, under mostly sunny skies. Highs
will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Milder Friday night with lows
in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Saturday forecast a bit tricky. Models try to develop some light qpf
in warm sector ahead of next frontal boundary. Feel that it is
overdone and that it will be dry. Thus with models trying to develop
precipitation it is also indicating more clouds. Backed off on cloud
cover a bit to be partly cloudy across my area. Warm southerly winds
to persist so will see highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Saturday night models begin to bring frontal boundary into forecast
area. Sided with the slightly slower NAM/ECMWF solutions. So expect
another mild night in the low 40s to low 50s. On Sunday front to
move through forecast area. So will see a wide range in high
temperatures ranging from the mid 50s far north to the upper 60s far
south. Low level moisture on the increase ahead of front so could
see some light precipitation develop over southeast half of
forecast area. Then as front pushes south of forecast area late
Sunday into Sunday night precipitation to shift a bit further
south...but could see some activity as far north as I70 corridor.
With colder air filtering in will see rain mix with and snow at
times. On Monday, as surface ridge settles into region, some
lingering mixed precipitation across far southern portions of
forecast area as highs will only be in the upper 20s to upper 30s.

Beyond that, extended models have very different solutions for
weather across the area around mid week. So confidence is low an any
of them. GFS keeps zonal flow and wants to bring in precipitation
for Wednesday night and Thursday while ECMWF wants to bring in an
upper level trof centered over great lakes and strong surface ridge
which would mean dry and cold conditions. For now have slight
chance/low end chance pops for this period with highs in the 40s and
lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1123 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

MVFR ceilings should move east of all TAF sites by around 22Z. VFR
cloud deck near 7000 feet then approaches from the west this
evening. Northwest winds will diminish rapidly this afternoon and
become light and variable overnight as surface ridge moves
overhead. Quick return to southeasterly flow on Friday with VFR
conditions expected.

Specifics for KSTL: MVFR ceilings should clear KSTL TAF site by
around 22Z. An area of VFR ceilings will move in after 00Z. Northwest
winds will diminish this evening. As surface high pressure moves
quickly off to the east, southeast winds will return by around
14Z.

Browning
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 271731
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1131 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Saturday)
Issued at 356 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Clipper system is now well southeast of the CWFA, and only a few
lingering flurries remain.  Expect any lingering precip to end by
12Z this morning and for the rest of the day to be cold and dry.
Some uncertainty on sky condition today as stratus over Iowa is
clearing fairly slowly from northwest to southeast.  Short range NAM
and RAP 925mb RH field has a decent handle on the clouds at this
time, so have used a combination of these guidance products and
satellite observations to try and time gradual clearing today.
Canadian airmass over eastern Dakotas at this time will drift
southeast today and will provide the area with unseasonably cold
air.  Cannot argue with MOS high temps in the mid-upper 20s to mid
30s across the area due to this cold high pressure system`s
influence.

Models continue to advertise a general pattern shift Friday into the
weekend with mid-upper level flow becoming more zonal.  This will
allow warmer air to flow back into the area as the storm track
shifts north.  Temperatures will moderate on Friday as the flow
shifts to the south-southwest on the western side of the Canadian
high which will have settled in over the Eastern CONUS. Expect
temperatures on Friday to be at least 10 to 15 degrees warmer than
today.  Boundary layer moisture will also be on the increase, and
low level RH progs for Friday night/Saturday morning are showing
very moist conditions across the area by 12Z Saturday from about
900mb down to the surface.  Have therefore increased cloud cover on
Saturday morning with some gradual clearing during the afternoon.
Models continue to spit out light QPF Saturday, but am still
skeptical due to the models` tendency to develop precipitation in
strong moisture return situations even with lifting mechanisms
aren`t present.  Indeed, in this case model soundings are showing a
strong subsidence inversion in the low levels and positive values of
omega in the moist layer which would tend to lend credence to a dry
(tho cloudy/mostly cloudy) forecast for Saturday.  Am still sticking
with above normal temperatures Saturday, though due to expected
cloud cover have backed off a little bit from warmest MOS guidance.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 423 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Sunday continues to look pretty mild over the majority of the area,
with the possible exception of northeast Missouri and west central
Illinois.  Timing differences between the faster GFS and slower
ECMWF could mean the difference between a chilly day up north and a
day with highs between 10 and 15 degrees above normal.  Leaned
toward the warmer solution this morning since the upstream shortwave
which will drive the front south is well back over Montana in the
ECMWF, and the GFS solution keeps the teeth of the shortwave up
north across the Upper Midwest.  Would like to point out that this
could easily be wrong.

Cold front should be through the area by Monday morning according to
both the ECMWF and GFS with a 1040mb high building into the
Midwest.  Confidence in the extended forecast beyond Monday is
pretty low as there seems to be little agreement between the GFS and
ECMWF.  GFS hangs on to quasi-zonal flow aloft through Wednesday
which is mild and potentially a little wet.  ECMWF develops a
full-latitude longwave trof over the eastern 1/2 of the CONUS which
would be drier and colder.  Stuck with the ensemble blend of
guidance which tended toward a warmer and wetter solution for this
forecast cycle.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1123 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

MVFR ceilings should move east of all TAF sites by around 22Z. VFR
cloud deck near 7000 feet then approaches from the west this
evening. Northwest winds will diminish rapidly this afternoon and
become light and variable overnight as surface ridge moves
overhead. Quick return to southeasterly flow on Friday with VFR
conditions expected.

Specifics for KSTL: MVFR ceilings should clear KSTL TAF site by
around 22Z. An area of VFR ceilings will move in after 00Z. Northwest
winds will diminish this evening. As surface high pressure moves
quickly off to the east, southeast winds will return by around
14Z.

Browning

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     32  25  49  39 /   0   0   0   0
Quincy          27  19  44  36 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia        32  25  53  41 /   0   0   0   0
Jefferson City  34  25  55  41 /   0   0   0   0
Salem           30  22  45  37 /   5   0   0   5
Farmington      35  23  48  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 271723
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1123 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 302 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Low clouds have hung on over all but the far western cwfa so far
tonight. We have started to see some erosion of the western
edge, and based on 925/850mb humidity progs, the clearing line
will continue to shift east as low level winds begin to back to
the west and southwest and warm advection (albeit weak initially)
kicks in in the lower levels. The clouds may, however, hang on for
a bit over the eastern cwfa today.

Sfc high pressure will keep winds light today. A s-se sfc wind
will eventually start to kick in as the high exits off to the east
tonight. Temperatures might drop quickly this evening then level
off with the increasing sfc wind.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Gusty s-sw winds will kick in Friday with a sharp warming trend.
Progged soundings show a shallow moist layer underneath a capping
inversion/elevated mixed layer Friday night and into the weekend.
We might see some shallow advection stratus/fog develop late Fri
night into early Saturday. Given the shallow depth, it look like
the moisture will mix out, even with low seasonal sun angles, but
this bears watching since it may affect daytime temperatures.

For Friday-Saturday, went with a general consensus of guidance on
temperatures with most if not all areas reaching the 60s over the
weekend.

A split mid level flow pattern will gradually develop over the
western and central CONUS with a northern stream shortwave
supporting a cold frontal passage with some light rain late Sunday
night with cooler/colder temperatures Monday-Tuesday. Quite a
difference between the ECMWF and GFS by Tuesday/Wednesday with
just basic placement of large scale features. In general, both
models don`t show any real cold air surging south, but they vary
on the timing and degree of warm air advection by mid/late week.
Again, the forecast represents a blend which in affect warms
temperatures a bit by day 6 and 7 (Tuesday/Wednesday) but with low
confidence.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Pilots can expect improving flight conditions at area terminals this
afternoon with VFR conditions prevailing through tonight.

Surface winds will be light today as surface high pressure moves
off to the east. Southerly winds will develop tonight and increase
on Friday. Frequent surface gusts over 20 kts can be expected
Friday. Low level wind shear will develop tonight into early
Friday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 271723
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1123 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 302 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Low clouds have hung on over all but the far western cwfa so far
tonight. We have started to see some erosion of the western
edge, and based on 925/850mb humidity progs, the clearing line
will continue to shift east as low level winds begin to back to
the west and southwest and warm advection (albeit weak initially)
kicks in in the lower levels. The clouds may, however, hang on for
a bit over the eastern cwfa today.

Sfc high pressure will keep winds light today. A s-se sfc wind
will eventually start to kick in as the high exits off to the east
tonight. Temperatures might drop quickly this evening then level
off with the increasing sfc wind.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Gusty s-sw winds will kick in Friday with a sharp warming trend.
Progged soundings show a shallow moist layer underneath a capping
inversion/elevated mixed layer Friday night and into the weekend.
We might see some shallow advection stratus/fog develop late Fri
night into early Saturday. Given the shallow depth, it look like
the moisture will mix out, even with low seasonal sun angles, but
this bears watching since it may affect daytime temperatures.

For Friday-Saturday, went with a general consensus of guidance on
temperatures with most if not all areas reaching the 60s over the
weekend.

A split mid level flow pattern will gradually develop over the
western and central CONUS with a northern stream shortwave
supporting a cold frontal passage with some light rain late Sunday
night with cooler/colder temperatures Monday-Tuesday. Quite a
difference between the ECMWF and GFS by Tuesday/Wednesday with
just basic placement of large scale features. In general, both
models don`t show any real cold air surging south, but they vary
on the timing and degree of warm air advection by mid/late week.
Again, the forecast represents a blend which in affect warms
temperatures a bit by day 6 and 7 (Tuesday/Wednesday) but with low
confidence.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Pilots can expect improving flight conditions at area terminals this
afternoon with VFR conditions prevailing through tonight.

Surface winds will be light today as surface high pressure moves
off to the east. Southerly winds will develop tonight and increase
on Friday. Frequent surface gusts over 20 kts can be expected
Friday. Low level wind shear will develop tonight into early
Friday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Foster






000
FXUS63 KEAX 271703
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1103 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Not much change to the forecast philosophy through the weekend, with
relatively benign weather expected outside of brief cold and warm
spells. Low clouds present this morning will gradually have some
breaks as the day progresses. Even with some insolation, cold air
will remain in place as a surface high pressure axis centers over
the CWA by midday. Highs will only reach the middle 20s to upper 30s
this afternoon. Initial northerly winds will become calm as the high
pressure axis moves through, before becoming southerly by late this
afternoon. Dry weather will prevail today into tonight.

Friday into Saturday will feature a notable warmup as weak upper
ridging, flattening and becoming westerly flow, across the western
two-thirds of the CONUS materializes. The low-level thermal axis
will develop over the central Plains and expand into our area early
this weekend. The end result is a quick warmup, with the warmest day
expected on Saturday, with highs reaching the middle 50s to middle
60s across the forecast area. Precipitation is not expected during
this multi-day period of warm weather, making for an optimal time
for any outdoor activities. There may be some stratus that forms
across portions of the CWA Saturday morning upon increasing moisture
advection, but these clouds should gradually mix out by midday.

As models gradually converge closer to a consensus on Sunday, a
fairly impressive temperature gradient is expected across the
forecast area. A cold front will push through the CWA beginning
Sunday morning. Areas over far northwest Missouri may see the warmest
temperatures around sunrise, with falling temperatures thereafter.
Warmer weather is expected with southern geographic extent with a
longer duration in the warm sector ahead of the front. Highs on
Sunday will range from the middle 30s far northwest MO to near 60
over central MO. Best probabilities of light precipitation should
exist to the southeast of the CWA.

The work week ahead looks cool, with temperatures generally below
normal. Substantial differences develop between model solutions after
Monday, with a temperature difference spread of 8C at H85 by
Thursday among several members. This leads to high forecast
uncertainty towards the end of the forecast period. Blended approach
keeps temperatures cool, but could certainly see a more aggressive
temperature swing in one direction or another depending on the the
eventual synoptic evolution, progressive versus highly amplified.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1053 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. Mid-level
clouds will remain in place through much of Thursday prior to
scattering out overnight. Winds will vary initially while
becoming southeasterly and increasing slightly with time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 271703
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1103 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Not much change to the forecast philosophy through the weekend, with
relatively benign weather expected outside of brief cold and warm
spells. Low clouds present this morning will gradually have some
breaks as the day progresses. Even with some insolation, cold air
will remain in place as a surface high pressure axis centers over
the CWA by midday. Highs will only reach the middle 20s to upper 30s
this afternoon. Initial northerly winds will become calm as the high
pressure axis moves through, before becoming southerly by late this
afternoon. Dry weather will prevail today into tonight.

Friday into Saturday will feature a notable warmup as weak upper
ridging, flattening and becoming westerly flow, across the western
two-thirds of the CONUS materializes. The low-level thermal axis
will develop over the central Plains and expand into our area early
this weekend. The end result is a quick warmup, with the warmest day
expected on Saturday, with highs reaching the middle 50s to middle
60s across the forecast area. Precipitation is not expected during
this multi-day period of warm weather, making for an optimal time
for any outdoor activities. There may be some stratus that forms
across portions of the CWA Saturday morning upon increasing moisture
advection, but these clouds should gradually mix out by midday.

As models gradually converge closer to a consensus on Sunday, a
fairly impressive temperature gradient is expected across the
forecast area. A cold front will push through the CWA beginning
Sunday morning. Areas over far northwest Missouri may see the warmest
temperatures around sunrise, with falling temperatures thereafter.
Warmer weather is expected with southern geographic extent with a
longer duration in the warm sector ahead of the front. Highs on
Sunday will range from the middle 30s far northwest MO to near 60
over central MO. Best probabilities of light precipitation should
exist to the southeast of the CWA.

The work week ahead looks cool, with temperatures generally below
normal. Substantial differences develop between model solutions after
Monday, with a temperature difference spread of 8C at H85 by
Thursday among several members. This leads to high forecast
uncertainty towards the end of the forecast period. Blended approach
keeps temperatures cool, but could certainly see a more aggressive
temperature swing in one direction or another depending on the the
eventual synoptic evolution, progressive versus highly amplified.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1053 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. Mid-level
clouds will remain in place through much of Thursday prior to
scattering out overnight. Winds will vary initially while
becoming southeasterly and increasing slightly with time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KSGF 271204
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
604 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 302 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Low clouds have hung on over all but the far western cwfa so far
tonight. We have started to see some erosion of the western
edge, and based on 925/850mb humidity progs, the clearing line
will continue to shift east as low level winds begin to back to
the west and southwest and warm advection (albeit weak initially)
kicks in in the lower levels. The clouds may, however, hang on for
a bit over the eastern cwfa today.

Sfc high pressure will keep winds light today. A s-se sfc wind
will eventually start to kick in as the high exits off to the east
tonight. Temperatures might drop quickly this evening then level
off with the increasing sfc wind.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Gusty s-sw winds will kick in Friday with a sharp warming trend.
Progged soundings show a shallow moist layer underneath a capping
inversion/elevated mixed layer Friday night and into the weekend.
We might see some shallow advection stratus/fog develop late Fri
night into early Saturday. Given the shallow depth, it look like
the moisture will mix out, even with low seasonal sun angles, but
this bears watching since it may affect daytime temperatures.

For Friday-Saturday, went with a general consensus of guidance on
temperatures with most if not all areas reaching the 60s over the
weekend.

A split mid level flow pattern will gradually develop over the
western and central CONUS with a northern stream shortwave
supporting a cold frontal passage with some light rain late Sunday
night with cooler/colder temperatures Monday-Tuesday. Quite a
difference between the ECMWF and GFS by Tuesday/Wednesday with
just basic placement of large scale features. In general, both
models don`t show any real cold air surging south, but they vary
on the timing and degree of warm air advection by mid/late week.
Again, the forecast represents a blend which in affect warms
temperatures a bit by day 6 and 7 (Tuesday/Wednesday) but with low
confidence.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

High pressure will slowly build into the region though lingering
MVFR ceilings will remain early this morning for portions of the
Ozarks. VFR flight conditions will spread into the region by late
morning with generally light winds for much of today. High broken
to overcast VFR ceilings will spread over the areas terminals
again early Friday morning. low level wind shear will develop for
all terminals though surface winds will be light out of the south.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch







000
FXUS63 KSGF 271204
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
604 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 302 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Low clouds have hung on over all but the far western cwfa so far
tonight. We have started to see some erosion of the western
edge, and based on 925/850mb humidity progs, the clearing line
will continue to shift east as low level winds begin to back to
the west and southwest and warm advection (albeit weak initially)
kicks in in the lower levels. The clouds may, however, hang on for
a bit over the eastern cwfa today.

Sfc high pressure will keep winds light today. A s-se sfc wind
will eventually start to kick in as the high exits off to the east
tonight. Temperatures might drop quickly this evening then level
off with the increasing sfc wind.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Gusty s-sw winds will kick in Friday with a sharp warming trend.
Progged soundings show a shallow moist layer underneath a capping
inversion/elevated mixed layer Friday night and into the weekend.
We might see some shallow advection stratus/fog develop late Fri
night into early Saturday. Given the shallow depth, it look like
the moisture will mix out, even with low seasonal sun angles, but
this bears watching since it may affect daytime temperatures.

For Friday-Saturday, went with a general consensus of guidance on
temperatures with most if not all areas reaching the 60s over the
weekend.

A split mid level flow pattern will gradually develop over the
western and central CONUS with a northern stream shortwave
supporting a cold frontal passage with some light rain late Sunday
night with cooler/colder temperatures Monday-Tuesday. Quite a
difference between the ECMWF and GFS by Tuesday/Wednesday with
just basic placement of large scale features. In general, both
models don`t show any real cold air surging south, but they vary
on the timing and degree of warm air advection by mid/late week.
Again, the forecast represents a blend which in affect warms
temperatures a bit by day 6 and 7 (Tuesday/Wednesday) but with low
confidence.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

High pressure will slowly build into the region though lingering
MVFR ceilings will remain early this morning for portions of the
Ozarks. VFR flight conditions will spread into the region by late
morning with generally light winds for much of today. High broken
to overcast VFR ceilings will spread over the areas terminals
again early Friday morning. low level wind shear will develop for
all terminals though surface winds will be light out of the south.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch








000
FXUS63 KLSX 271147
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
547 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Saturday)
Issued at 356 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Clipper system is now well southeast of the CWFA, and only a few
lingering flurries remain.  Expect any lingering precip to end by
12Z this morning and for the rest of the day to be cold and dry.
Some uncertainty on sky condition today as stratus over Iowa is
clearing fairly slowly from northwest to southeast.  Short range NAM
and RAP 925mb RH field has a decent handle on the clouds at this
time, so have used a combination of these guidance products and
satellite observations to try and time gradual clearing today.
Canadian airmass over eastern Dakotas at this time will drift
southeast today and will provide the area with unseasonably cold
air.  Cannot argue with MOS high temps in the mid-upper 20s to mid
30s across the area due to this cold high pressure system`s
influence.

Models continue to advertise a general pattern shift Friday into the
weekend with mid-upper level flow becoming more zonal.  This will
allow warmer air to flow back into the area as the storm track
shifts north.  Temperatures will moderate on Friday as the flow
shifts to the south-southwest on the western side of the Canadian
high which will have settled in over the Eastern CONUS. Expect
temperatures on Friday to be at least 10 to 15 degrees warmer than
today.  Boundary layer moisture will also be on the increase, and
low level RH progs for Friday night/Saturday morning are showing
very moist conditions across the area by 12Z Saturday from about
900mb down to the surface.  Have therefore increased cloud cover on
Saturday morning with some gradual clearing during the afternoon.
Models continue to spit out light QPF Saturday, but am still
skeptical due to the models` tendency to develop precipitation in
strong moisture return situations even with lifting mechanisms
aren`t present.  Indeed, in this case model soundings are showing a
strong subsidence inversion in the low levels and positive values of
omega in the moist layer which would tend to lend credence to a dry
(tho cloudy/mostly cloudy) forecast for Saturday.  Am still sticking
with above normal temperatures Saturday, though due to expected
cloud cover have backed off a little bit from warmest MOS guidance.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 423 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Sunday continues to look pretty mild over the majority of the area,
with the possible exception of northeast Missouri and west central
Illinois.  Timing differences between the faster GFS and slower
ECMWF could mean the difference between a chilly day up north and a
day with highs between 10 and 15 degrees above normal.  Leaned
toward the warmer solution this morning since the upstream shortwave
which will drive the front south is well back over Montana in the
ECMWF, and the GFS solution keeps the teeth of the shortwave up
north across the Upper Midwest.  Would like to point out that this
could easily be wrong.

Cold front should be through the area by Monday morning according to
both the ECMWF and GFS with a 1040mb high building into the
Midwest.  Confidence in the extended forecast beyond Monday is
pretty low as there seems to be little agreement between the GFS and
ECMWF.  GFS hangs on to quasi-zonal flow aloft through Wednesday
which is mild and potentially a little wet.  ECMWF develops a
full-latitude longwave trof over the eastern 1/2 of the CONUS which
would be drier and colder.  Stuck with the ensemble blend of
guidance which tended toward a warmer and wetter solution for this
forecast cycle.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 545 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

At 1130z, ragged back edge of MVFR cloud deck extends from just
east of KALO, to near KCSQ, to around KFNB, and is working
southeast at about 20kts. This rate of movment suggests erosion of
MVFR cigs at UIN and COU around midday and in the STL metro by
mid afternoon, which dovetails fairly well with RUC 925mb RH
trends. There is a large hole in this MVFR deck is over central
and parts of S IL, but it appears to be working SE so any impacts
of this feature will miss our TAF sites. Once the low clouds clear
VFR conditions will prevail for the remainder of the forecast
period, with any additional clouds aoa 8kft overnight and into
Friday morning.

Specifics for KSTL: Bases of MVFR cigs will slowly increase as we
head through the morning and early afternoon, with this low cloud
deck finally scattering out around 22z. Once the lower deck
erodes, occasional mid level cloudiness (with bases aoa 8kft) can
expected for the remainder of the forecast period.

Truett

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     32  26  50  39 /   0   0   0   0
Quincy          24  20  45  36 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia        32  25  54  40 /   0   0   0   0
Jefferson City  33  26  56  41 /   0   0   0   0
Salem           30  23  45  37 /   5   0   0   5
Farmington      35  24  49  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 271147
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
547 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Saturday)
Issued at 356 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Clipper system is now well southeast of the CWFA, and only a few
lingering flurries remain.  Expect any lingering precip to end by
12Z this morning and for the rest of the day to be cold and dry.
Some uncertainty on sky condition today as stratus over Iowa is
clearing fairly slowly from northwest to southeast.  Short range NAM
and RAP 925mb RH field has a decent handle on the clouds at this
time, so have used a combination of these guidance products and
satellite observations to try and time gradual clearing today.
Canadian airmass over eastern Dakotas at this time will drift
southeast today and will provide the area with unseasonably cold
air.  Cannot argue with MOS high temps in the mid-upper 20s to mid
30s across the area due to this cold high pressure system`s
influence.

Models continue to advertise a general pattern shift Friday into the
weekend with mid-upper level flow becoming more zonal.  This will
allow warmer air to flow back into the area as the storm track
shifts north.  Temperatures will moderate on Friday as the flow
shifts to the south-southwest on the western side of the Canadian
high which will have settled in over the Eastern CONUS. Expect
temperatures on Friday to be at least 10 to 15 degrees warmer than
today.  Boundary layer moisture will also be on the increase, and
low level RH progs for Friday night/Saturday morning are showing
very moist conditions across the area by 12Z Saturday from about
900mb down to the surface.  Have therefore increased cloud cover on
Saturday morning with some gradual clearing during the afternoon.
Models continue to spit out light QPF Saturday, but am still
skeptical due to the models` tendency to develop precipitation in
strong moisture return situations even with lifting mechanisms
aren`t present.  Indeed, in this case model soundings are showing a
strong subsidence inversion in the low levels and positive values of
omega in the moist layer which would tend to lend credence to a dry
(tho cloudy/mostly cloudy) forecast for Saturday.  Am still sticking
with above normal temperatures Saturday, though due to expected
cloud cover have backed off a little bit from warmest MOS guidance.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 423 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Sunday continues to look pretty mild over the majority of the area,
with the possible exception of northeast Missouri and west central
Illinois.  Timing differences between the faster GFS and slower
ECMWF could mean the difference between a chilly day up north and a
day with highs between 10 and 15 degrees above normal.  Leaned
toward the warmer solution this morning since the upstream shortwave
which will drive the front south is well back over Montana in the
ECMWF, and the GFS solution keeps the teeth of the shortwave up
north across the Upper Midwest.  Would like to point out that this
could easily be wrong.

Cold front should be through the area by Monday morning according to
both the ECMWF and GFS with a 1040mb high building into the
Midwest.  Confidence in the extended forecast beyond Monday is
pretty low as there seems to be little agreement between the GFS and
ECMWF.  GFS hangs on to quasi-zonal flow aloft through Wednesday
which is mild and potentially a little wet.  ECMWF develops a
full-latitude longwave trof over the eastern 1/2 of the CONUS which
would be drier and colder.  Stuck with the ensemble blend of
guidance which tended toward a warmer and wetter solution for this
forecast cycle.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 545 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

At 1130z, ragged back edge of MVFR cloud deck extends from just
east of KALO, to near KCSQ, to around KFNB, and is working
southeast at about 20kts. This rate of movment suggests erosion of
MVFR cigs at UIN and COU around midday and in the STL metro by
mid afternoon, which dovetails fairly well with RUC 925mb RH
trends. There is a large hole in this MVFR deck is over central
and parts of S IL, but it appears to be working SE so any impacts
of this feature will miss our TAF sites. Once the low clouds clear
VFR conditions will prevail for the remainder of the forecast
period, with any additional clouds aoa 8kft overnight and into
Friday morning.

Specifics for KSTL: Bases of MVFR cigs will slowly increase as we
head through the morning and early afternoon, with this low cloud
deck finally scattering out around 22z. Once the lower deck
erodes, occasional mid level cloudiness (with bases aoa 8kft) can
expected for the remainder of the forecast period.

Truett

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     32  26  50  39 /   0   0   0   0
Quincy          24  20  45  36 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia        32  25  54  40 /   0   0   0   0
Jefferson City  33  26  56  41 /   0   0   0   0
Salem           30  23  45  37 /   5   0   0   5
Farmington      35  24  49  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 271137
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
537 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Not much change to the forecast philosophy through the weekend, with
relatively benign weather expected outside of brief cold and warm
spells. Low clouds present this morning will gradually have some
breaks as the day progresses. Even with some insolation, cold air
will remain in place as a surface high pressure axis centers over
the CWA by midday. Highs will only reach the middle 20s to upper 30s
this afternoon. Initial northerly winds will become calm as the high
pressure axis moves through, before becoming southerly by late this
afternoon. Dry weather will prevail today into tonight.

Friday into Saturday will feature a notable warmup as weak upper
ridging, flattening and becoming westerly flow, across the western
two-thirds of the CONUS materializes. The low-level thermal axis
will develop over the central Plains and expand into our area early
this weekend. The end result is a quick warmup, with the warmest day
expected on Saturday, with highs reaching the middle 50s to middle
60s across the forecast area. Precipitation is not expected during
this multi-day period of warm weather, making for an optimal time
for any outdoor activities. There may be some stratus that forms
across portions of the CWA Saturday morning upon increasing moisture
advection, but these clouds should gradually mix out by midday.

As models gradually converge closer to a consensus on Sunday, a
fairly impressive temperature gradient is expected across the
forecast area. A cold front will push through the CWA beginning
Sunday morning. Areas over far northwest Missouri may see the warmest
temperatures around sunrise, with falling temperatures thereafter.
Warmer weather is expected with southern geographic extent with a
longer duration in the warm sector ahead of the front. Highs on
Sunday will range from the middle 30s far northwest MO to near 60
over central MO. Best probabilities of light precipitation should
exist to the southeast of the CWA.

The work week ahead looks cool, with temperatures generally below
normal. Substantial differences develop between model solutions after
Monday, with a temperature difference spread of 8C at H85 by
Thursday among several members. This leads to high forecast
uncertainty towards the end of the forecast period. Blended approach
keeps temperatures cool, but could certainly see a more aggressive
temperature swing in one direction or another depending on the the
eventual synoptic evolution, progressive versus highly amplified.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 531 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MVFR conditions should be ending shortly at terminals, likely prior
to 15Z, with a return to VFR thereafter. Another wave of stratus
between 6-8kft will move overhead later this morning into early
afternoon. Winds will switch from northerly to southerly by mid
afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 271137
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
537 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Not much change to the forecast philosophy through the weekend, with
relatively benign weather expected outside of brief cold and warm
spells. Low clouds present this morning will gradually have some
breaks as the day progresses. Even with some insolation, cold air
will remain in place as a surface high pressure axis centers over
the CWA by midday. Highs will only reach the middle 20s to upper 30s
this afternoon. Initial northerly winds will become calm as the high
pressure axis moves through, before becoming southerly by late this
afternoon. Dry weather will prevail today into tonight.

Friday into Saturday will feature a notable warmup as weak upper
ridging, flattening and becoming westerly flow, across the western
two-thirds of the CONUS materializes. The low-level thermal axis
will develop over the central Plains and expand into our area early
this weekend. The end result is a quick warmup, with the warmest day
expected on Saturday, with highs reaching the middle 50s to middle
60s across the forecast area. Precipitation is not expected during
this multi-day period of warm weather, making for an optimal time
for any outdoor activities. There may be some stratus that forms
across portions of the CWA Saturday morning upon increasing moisture
advection, but these clouds should gradually mix out by midday.

As models gradually converge closer to a consensus on Sunday, a
fairly impressive temperature gradient is expected across the
forecast area. A cold front will push through the CWA beginning
Sunday morning. Areas over far northwest Missouri may see the warmest
temperatures around sunrise, with falling temperatures thereafter.
Warmer weather is expected with southern geographic extent with a
longer duration in the warm sector ahead of the front. Highs on
Sunday will range from the middle 30s far northwest MO to near 60
over central MO. Best probabilities of light precipitation should
exist to the southeast of the CWA.

The work week ahead looks cool, with temperatures generally below
normal. Substantial differences develop between model solutions after
Monday, with a temperature difference spread of 8C at H85 by
Thursday among several members. This leads to high forecast
uncertainty towards the end of the forecast period. Blended approach
keeps temperatures cool, but could certainly see a more aggressive
temperature swing in one direction or another depending on the the
eventual synoptic evolution, progressive versus highly amplified.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 531 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MVFR conditions should be ending shortly at terminals, likely prior
to 15Z, with a return to VFR thereafter. Another wave of stratus
between 6-8kft will move overhead later this morning into early
afternoon. Winds will switch from northerly to southerly by mid
afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair






000
FXUS63 KLSX 271023
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
423 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Saturday)
Issued at 356 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Clipper system is now well southeast of the CWFA, and only a few
lingering flurries remain.  Expect any lingering precip to end by
12Z this morning and for the rest of the day to be cold and dry.
Some uncertainty on sky condition today as stratus over Iowa is
clearing fairly slowly from northwest to southeast.  Short range NAM
and RAP 925mb RH field has a decent handle on the clouds at this
time, so have used a combination of these guidance products and
satellite observations to try and time gradual clearing today.
Canadian airmass over eastern Dakotas at this time will drift
southeast today and will provide the area with unseasonably cold
air.  Cannot argue with MOS high temps in the mid-upper 20s to mid
30s across the area due to this cold high pressure system`s
influence.

Models continue to advertise a general pattern shift Friday into the
weekend with mid-upper level flow becoming more zonal.  This will
allow warmer air to flow back into the area as the storm track
shifts north.  Temperatures will moderate on Friday as the flow
shifts to the south-southwest on the western side of the Canadian
high which will have settled in over the Eastern CONUS. Expect
temperatures on Friday to be at least 10 to 15 degrees warmer than
today.  Boundary layer moisture will also be on the increase, and
low level RH progs for Friday night/Saturday morning are showing
very moist conditions across the area by 12Z Saturday from about
900mb down to the surface.  Have therefore increased cloud cover on
Saturday morning with some gradual clearing during the afternoon.
Models continue to spit out light QPF Saturday, but am still
skeptical due to the models` tendency to develop precipitation in
strong moisture return situations even with lifting mechanisms
aren`t present.  Indeed, in this case model soundings are showing a
strong subsidence inversion in the low levels and positive values of
omega in the moist layer which would tend to lend credence to a dry
(tho cloudy/mostly cloudy) forecast for Saturday.  Am still sticking
with above normal temperatures Saturday, though due to expected
cloud cover have backed off a little bit from warmest MOS guidance.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 423 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Sunday continues to look pretty mild over the majority of the area,
with the possible exception of northeast Missouri and west central
Illinois.  Timing differences between the faster GFS and slower
ECMWF could mean the difference between a chilly day up north and a
day with highs between 10 and 15 degrees above normal.  Leaned
toward the warmer solution this morning since the upstream shortwave
which will drive the front south is well back over Montana in the
ECMWF, and the GFS solution keeps the teeth of the shortwave up
north across the Upper Midwest.  Would like to point out that this
could easily be wrong.

Cold front should be through the area by Monday morning according to
both the ECMWF and GFS with a 1040mb high building into the
Midwest.  Confidence in the extended forecast beyond Monday is
pretty low as there seems to be little agreement between the GFS and
ECMWF.  GFS hangs on to quasi-zonal flow aloft through Wednesday
which is mild and potentially a little wet.  ECMWF develops a
full-latitude longwave trof over the eastern 1/2 of the CONUS which
would be drier and colder.  Stuck with the ensemble blend of
guidance which tended toward a warmer and wetter solution for this
forecast cycle.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

IFR flight conditions were widespread earlier this evening across
eastern MO and western IL into southeast IA. However over the last
few hours there has been a dramatic improvement as the surface low
redevelops in the TN valley, winds shift to north and northwesterly,
and snowfall diminishes. Radar and present trends suggest snow
should end across the St. Metro area within the next hour or two
with conditions improving at that time to MVFR. Elsewhere MVFR
conditions will persist overnight. During the day on Thursday the
cig heights are expected to gradually improve with VFR flight
conditions evolving from midday into the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

Snow is expected to end by 07z with flight conditions improving at
that time to MVFR. MVFR flight conditions will then persist
through early afternoon with cig heights gradually rising, with
VFR conditions around 21z.

Glass

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     32  26  50  39 /   0   0   0   0
Quincy          24  20  45  36 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia        32  25  54  40 /   0   0   0   0
Jefferson City  33  26  56  41 /   0   0   0   0
Salem           30  23  45  37 /   5   0   0   5
Farmington      35  24  49  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 271023
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
423 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Saturday)
Issued at 356 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Clipper system is now well southeast of the CWFA, and only a few
lingering flurries remain.  Expect any lingering precip to end by
12Z this morning and for the rest of the day to be cold and dry.
Some uncertainty on sky condition today as stratus over Iowa is
clearing fairly slowly from northwest to southeast.  Short range NAM
and RAP 925mb RH field has a decent handle on the clouds at this
time, so have used a combination of these guidance products and
satellite observations to try and time gradual clearing today.
Canadian airmass over eastern Dakotas at this time will drift
southeast today and will provide the area with unseasonably cold
air.  Cannot argue with MOS high temps in the mid-upper 20s to mid
30s across the area due to this cold high pressure system`s
influence.

Models continue to advertise a general pattern shift Friday into the
weekend with mid-upper level flow becoming more zonal.  This will
allow warmer air to flow back into the area as the storm track
shifts north.  Temperatures will moderate on Friday as the flow
shifts to the south-southwest on the western side of the Canadian
high which will have settled in over the Eastern CONUS. Expect
temperatures on Friday to be at least 10 to 15 degrees warmer than
today.  Boundary layer moisture will also be on the increase, and
low level RH progs for Friday night/Saturday morning are showing
very moist conditions across the area by 12Z Saturday from about
900mb down to the surface.  Have therefore increased cloud cover on
Saturday morning with some gradual clearing during the afternoon.
Models continue to spit out light QPF Saturday, but am still
skeptical due to the models` tendency to develop precipitation in
strong moisture return situations even with lifting mechanisms
aren`t present.  Indeed, in this case model soundings are showing a
strong subsidence inversion in the low levels and positive values of
omega in the moist layer which would tend to lend credence to a dry
(tho cloudy/mostly cloudy) forecast for Saturday.  Am still sticking
with above normal temperatures Saturday, though due to expected
cloud cover have backed off a little bit from warmest MOS guidance.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 423 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Sunday continues to look pretty mild over the majority of the area,
with the possible exception of northeast Missouri and west central
Illinois.  Timing differences between the faster GFS and slower
ECMWF could mean the difference between a chilly day up north and a
day with highs between 10 and 15 degrees above normal.  Leaned
toward the warmer solution this morning since the upstream shortwave
which will drive the front south is well back over Montana in the
ECMWF, and the GFS solution keeps the teeth of the shortwave up
north across the Upper Midwest.  Would like to point out that this
could easily be wrong.

Cold front should be through the area by Monday morning according to
both the ECMWF and GFS with a 1040mb high building into the
Midwest.  Confidence in the extended forecast beyond Monday is
pretty low as there seems to be little agreement between the GFS and
ECMWF.  GFS hangs on to quasi-zonal flow aloft through Wednesday
which is mild and potentially a little wet.  ECMWF develops a
full-latitude longwave trof over the eastern 1/2 of the CONUS which
would be drier and colder.  Stuck with the ensemble blend of
guidance which tended toward a warmer and wetter solution for this
forecast cycle.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

IFR flight conditions were widespread earlier this evening across
eastern MO and western IL into southeast IA. However over the last
few hours there has been a dramatic improvement as the surface low
redevelops in the TN valley, winds shift to north and northwesterly,
and snowfall diminishes. Radar and present trends suggest snow
should end across the St. Metro area within the next hour or two
with conditions improving at that time to MVFR. Elsewhere MVFR
conditions will persist overnight. During the day on Thursday the
cig heights are expected to gradually improve with VFR flight
conditions evolving from midday into the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

Snow is expected to end by 07z with flight conditions improving at
that time to MVFR. MVFR flight conditions will then persist
through early afternoon with cig heights gradually rising, with
VFR conditions around 21z.

Glass

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     32  26  50  39 /   0   0   0   0
Quincy          24  20  45  36 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia        32  25  54  40 /   0   0   0   0
Jefferson City  33  26  56  41 /   0   0   0   0
Salem           30  23  45  37 /   5   0   0   5
Farmington      35  24  49  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 271023
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
423 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Saturday)
Issued at 356 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Clipper system is now well southeast of the CWFA, and only a few
lingering flurries remain.  Expect any lingering precip to end by
12Z this morning and for the rest of the day to be cold and dry.
Some uncertainty on sky condition today as stratus over Iowa is
clearing fairly slowly from northwest to southeast.  Short range NAM
and RAP 925mb RH field has a decent handle on the clouds at this
time, so have used a combination of these guidance products and
satellite observations to try and time gradual clearing today.
Canadian airmass over eastern Dakotas at this time will drift
southeast today and will provide the area with unseasonably cold
air.  Cannot argue with MOS high temps in the mid-upper 20s to mid
30s across the area due to this cold high pressure system`s
influence.

Models continue to advertise a general pattern shift Friday into the
weekend with mid-upper level flow becoming more zonal.  This will
allow warmer air to flow back into the area as the storm track
shifts north.  Temperatures will moderate on Friday as the flow
shifts to the south-southwest on the western side of the Canadian
high which will have settled in over the Eastern CONUS. Expect
temperatures on Friday to be at least 10 to 15 degrees warmer than
today.  Boundary layer moisture will also be on the increase, and
low level RH progs for Friday night/Saturday morning are showing
very moist conditions across the area by 12Z Saturday from about
900mb down to the surface.  Have therefore increased cloud cover on
Saturday morning with some gradual clearing during the afternoon.
Models continue to spit out light QPF Saturday, but am still
skeptical due to the models` tendency to develop precipitation in
strong moisture return situations even with lifting mechanisms
aren`t present.  Indeed, in this case model soundings are showing a
strong subsidence inversion in the low levels and positive values of
omega in the moist layer which would tend to lend credence to a dry
(tho cloudy/mostly cloudy) forecast for Saturday.  Am still sticking
with above normal temperatures Saturday, though due to expected
cloud cover have backed off a little bit from warmest MOS guidance.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 423 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Sunday continues to look pretty mild over the majority of the area,
with the possible exception of northeast Missouri and west central
Illinois.  Timing differences between the faster GFS and slower
ECMWF could mean the difference between a chilly day up north and a
day with highs between 10 and 15 degrees above normal.  Leaned
toward the warmer solution this morning since the upstream shortwave
which will drive the front south is well back over Montana in the
ECMWF, and the GFS solution keeps the teeth of the shortwave up
north across the Upper Midwest.  Would like to point out that this
could easily be wrong.

Cold front should be through the area by Monday morning according to
both the ECMWF and GFS with a 1040mb high building into the
Midwest.  Confidence in the extended forecast beyond Monday is
pretty low as there seems to be little agreement between the GFS and
ECMWF.  GFS hangs on to quasi-zonal flow aloft through Wednesday
which is mild and potentially a little wet.  ECMWF develops a
full-latitude longwave trof over the eastern 1/2 of the CONUS which
would be drier and colder.  Stuck with the ensemble blend of
guidance which tended toward a warmer and wetter solution for this
forecast cycle.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

IFR flight conditions were widespread earlier this evening across
eastern MO and western IL into southeast IA. However over the last
few hours there has been a dramatic improvement as the surface low
redevelops in the TN valley, winds shift to north and northwesterly,
and snowfall diminishes. Radar and present trends suggest snow
should end across the St. Metro area within the next hour or two
with conditions improving at that time to MVFR. Elsewhere MVFR
conditions will persist overnight. During the day on Thursday the
cig heights are expected to gradually improve with VFR flight
conditions evolving from midday into the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

Snow is expected to end by 07z with flight conditions improving at
that time to MVFR. MVFR flight conditions will then persist
through early afternoon with cig heights gradually rising, with
VFR conditions around 21z.

Glass

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     32  26  50  39 /   0   0   0   0
Quincy          24  20  45  36 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia        32  25  54  40 /   0   0   0   0
Jefferson City  33  26  56  41 /   0   0   0   0
Salem           30  23  45  37 /   5   0   0   5
Farmington      35  24  49  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 271023
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
423 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Saturday)
Issued at 356 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Clipper system is now well southeast of the CWFA, and only a few
lingering flurries remain.  Expect any lingering precip to end by
12Z this morning and for the rest of the day to be cold and dry.
Some uncertainty on sky condition today as stratus over Iowa is
clearing fairly slowly from northwest to southeast.  Short range NAM
and RAP 925mb RH field has a decent handle on the clouds at this
time, so have used a combination of these guidance products and
satellite observations to try and time gradual clearing today.
Canadian airmass over eastern Dakotas at this time will drift
southeast today and will provide the area with unseasonably cold
air.  Cannot argue with MOS high temps in the mid-upper 20s to mid
30s across the area due to this cold high pressure system`s
influence.

Models continue to advertise a general pattern shift Friday into the
weekend with mid-upper level flow becoming more zonal.  This will
allow warmer air to flow back into the area as the storm track
shifts north.  Temperatures will moderate on Friday as the flow
shifts to the south-southwest on the western side of the Canadian
high which will have settled in over the Eastern CONUS. Expect
temperatures on Friday to be at least 10 to 15 degrees warmer than
today.  Boundary layer moisture will also be on the increase, and
low level RH progs for Friday night/Saturday morning are showing
very moist conditions across the area by 12Z Saturday from about
900mb down to the surface.  Have therefore increased cloud cover on
Saturday morning with some gradual clearing during the afternoon.
Models continue to spit out light QPF Saturday, but am still
skeptical due to the models` tendency to develop precipitation in
strong moisture return situations even with lifting mechanisms
aren`t present.  Indeed, in this case model soundings are showing a
strong subsidence inversion in the low levels and positive values of
omega in the moist layer which would tend to lend credence to a dry
(tho cloudy/mostly cloudy) forecast for Saturday.  Am still sticking
with above normal temperatures Saturday, though due to expected
cloud cover have backed off a little bit from warmest MOS guidance.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 423 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Sunday continues to look pretty mild over the majority of the area,
with the possible exception of northeast Missouri and west central
Illinois.  Timing differences between the faster GFS and slower
ECMWF could mean the difference between a chilly day up north and a
day with highs between 10 and 15 degrees above normal.  Leaned
toward the warmer solution this morning since the upstream shortwave
which will drive the front south is well back over Montana in the
ECMWF, and the GFS solution keeps the teeth of the shortwave up
north across the Upper Midwest.  Would like to point out that this
could easily be wrong.

Cold front should be through the area by Monday morning according to
both the ECMWF and GFS with a 1040mb high building into the
Midwest.  Confidence in the extended forecast beyond Monday is
pretty low as there seems to be little agreement between the GFS and
ECMWF.  GFS hangs on to quasi-zonal flow aloft through Wednesday
which is mild and potentially a little wet.  ECMWF develops a
full-latitude longwave trof over the eastern 1/2 of the CONUS which
would be drier and colder.  Stuck with the ensemble blend of
guidance which tended toward a warmer and wetter solution for this
forecast cycle.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

IFR flight conditions were widespread earlier this evening across
eastern MO and western IL into southeast IA. However over the last
few hours there has been a dramatic improvement as the surface low
redevelops in the TN valley, winds shift to north and northwesterly,
and snowfall diminishes. Radar and present trends suggest snow
should end across the St. Metro area within the next hour or two
with conditions improving at that time to MVFR. Elsewhere MVFR
conditions will persist overnight. During the day on Thursday the
cig heights are expected to gradually improve with VFR flight
conditions evolving from midday into the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

Snow is expected to end by 07z with flight conditions improving at
that time to MVFR. MVFR flight conditions will then persist
through early afternoon with cig heights gradually rising, with
VFR conditions around 21z.

Glass

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     32  26  50  39 /   0   0   0   0
Quincy          24  20  45  36 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia        32  25  54  40 /   0   0   0   0
Jefferson City  33  26  56  41 /   0   0   0   0
Salem           30  23  45  37 /   5   0   0   5
Farmington      35  24  49  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 271023
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
423 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Saturday)
Issued at 356 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Clipper system is now well southeast of the CWFA, and only a few
lingering flurries remain.  Expect any lingering precip to end by
12Z this morning and for the rest of the day to be cold and dry.
Some uncertainty on sky condition today as stratus over Iowa is
clearing fairly slowly from northwest to southeast.  Short range NAM
and RAP 925mb RH field has a decent handle on the clouds at this
time, so have used a combination of these guidance products and
satellite observations to try and time gradual clearing today.
Canadian airmass over eastern Dakotas at this time will drift
southeast today and will provide the area with unseasonably cold
air.  Cannot argue with MOS high temps in the mid-upper 20s to mid
30s across the area due to this cold high pressure system`s
influence.

Models continue to advertise a general pattern shift Friday into the
weekend with mid-upper level flow becoming more zonal.  This will
allow warmer air to flow back into the area as the storm track
shifts north.  Temperatures will moderate on Friday as the flow
shifts to the south-southwest on the western side of the Canadian
high which will have settled in over the Eastern CONUS. Expect
temperatures on Friday to be at least 10 to 15 degrees warmer than
today.  Boundary layer moisture will also be on the increase, and
low level RH progs for Friday night/Saturday morning are showing
very moist conditions across the area by 12Z Saturday from about
900mb down to the surface.  Have therefore increased cloud cover on
Saturday morning with some gradual clearing during the afternoon.
Models continue to spit out light QPF Saturday, but am still
skeptical due to the models` tendency to develop precipitation in
strong moisture return situations even with lifting mechanisms
aren`t present.  Indeed, in this case model soundings are showing a
strong subsidence inversion in the low levels and positive values of
omega in the moist layer which would tend to lend credence to a dry
(tho cloudy/mostly cloudy) forecast for Saturday.  Am still sticking
with above normal temperatures Saturday, though due to expected
cloud cover have backed off a little bit from warmest MOS guidance.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 423 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Sunday continues to look pretty mild over the majority of the area,
with the possible exception of northeast Missouri and west central
Illinois.  Timing differences between the faster GFS and slower
ECMWF could mean the difference between a chilly day up north and a
day with highs between 10 and 15 degrees above normal.  Leaned
toward the warmer solution this morning since the upstream shortwave
which will drive the front south is well back over Montana in the
ECMWF, and the GFS solution keeps the teeth of the shortwave up
north across the Upper Midwest.  Would like to point out that this
could easily be wrong.

Cold front should be through the area by Monday morning according to
both the ECMWF and GFS with a 1040mb high building into the
Midwest.  Confidence in the extended forecast beyond Monday is
pretty low as there seems to be little agreement between the GFS and
ECMWF.  GFS hangs on to quasi-zonal flow aloft through Wednesday
which is mild and potentially a little wet.  ECMWF develops a
full-latitude longwave trof over the eastern 1/2 of the CONUS which
would be drier and colder.  Stuck with the ensemble blend of
guidance which tended toward a warmer and wetter solution for this
forecast cycle.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

IFR flight conditions were widespread earlier this evening across
eastern MO and western IL into southeast IA. However over the last
few hours there has been a dramatic improvement as the surface low
redevelops in the TN valley, winds shift to north and northwesterly,
and snowfall diminishes. Radar and present trends suggest snow
should end across the St. Metro area within the next hour or two
with conditions improving at that time to MVFR. Elsewhere MVFR
conditions will persist overnight. During the day on Thursday the
cig heights are expected to gradually improve with VFR flight
conditions evolving from midday into the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

Snow is expected to end by 07z with flight conditions improving at
that time to MVFR. MVFR flight conditions will then persist
through early afternoon with cig heights gradually rising, with
VFR conditions around 21z.

Glass

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     32  26  50  39 /   0   0   0   0
Quincy          24  20  45  36 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia        32  25  54  40 /   0   0   0   0
Jefferson City  33  26  56  41 /   0   0   0   0
Salem           30  23  45  37 /   5   0   0   5
Farmington      35  24  49  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 271023
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
423 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Saturday)
Issued at 356 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Clipper system is now well southeast of the CWFA, and only a few
lingering flurries remain.  Expect any lingering precip to end by
12Z this morning and for the rest of the day to be cold and dry.
Some uncertainty on sky condition today as stratus over Iowa is
clearing fairly slowly from northwest to southeast.  Short range NAM
and RAP 925mb RH field has a decent handle on the clouds at this
time, so have used a combination of these guidance products and
satellite observations to try and time gradual clearing today.
Canadian airmass over eastern Dakotas at this time will drift
southeast today and will provide the area with unseasonably cold
air.  Cannot argue with MOS high temps in the mid-upper 20s to mid
30s across the area due to this cold high pressure system`s
influence.

Models continue to advertise a general pattern shift Friday into the
weekend with mid-upper level flow becoming more zonal.  This will
allow warmer air to flow back into the area as the storm track
shifts north.  Temperatures will moderate on Friday as the flow
shifts to the south-southwest on the western side of the Canadian
high which will have settled in over the Eastern CONUS. Expect
temperatures on Friday to be at least 10 to 15 degrees warmer than
today.  Boundary layer moisture will also be on the increase, and
low level RH progs for Friday night/Saturday morning are showing
very moist conditions across the area by 12Z Saturday from about
900mb down to the surface.  Have therefore increased cloud cover on
Saturday morning with some gradual clearing during the afternoon.
Models continue to spit out light QPF Saturday, but am still
skeptical due to the models` tendency to develop precipitation in
strong moisture return situations even with lifting mechanisms
aren`t present.  Indeed, in this case model soundings are showing a
strong subsidence inversion in the low levels and positive values of
omega in the moist layer which would tend to lend credence to a dry
(tho cloudy/mostly cloudy) forecast for Saturday.  Am still sticking
with above normal temperatures Saturday, though due to expected
cloud cover have backed off a little bit from warmest MOS guidance.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 423 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Sunday continues to look pretty mild over the majority of the area,
with the possible exception of northeast Missouri and west central
Illinois.  Timing differences between the faster GFS and slower
ECMWF could mean the difference between a chilly day up north and a
day with highs between 10 and 15 degrees above normal.  Leaned
toward the warmer solution this morning since the upstream shortwave
which will drive the front south is well back over Montana in the
ECMWF, and the GFS solution keeps the teeth of the shortwave up
north across the Upper Midwest.  Would like to point out that this
could easily be wrong.

Cold front should be through the area by Monday morning according to
both the ECMWF and GFS with a 1040mb high building into the
Midwest.  Confidence in the extended forecast beyond Monday is
pretty low as there seems to be little agreement between the GFS and
ECMWF.  GFS hangs on to quasi-zonal flow aloft through Wednesday
which is mild and potentially a little wet.  ECMWF develops a
full-latitude longwave trof over the eastern 1/2 of the CONUS which
would be drier and colder.  Stuck with the ensemble blend of
guidance which tended toward a warmer and wetter solution for this
forecast cycle.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

IFR flight conditions were widespread earlier this evening across
eastern MO and western IL into southeast IA. However over the last
few hours there has been a dramatic improvement as the surface low
redevelops in the TN valley, winds shift to north and northwesterly,
and snowfall diminishes. Radar and present trends suggest snow
should end across the St. Metro area within the next hour or two
with conditions improving at that time to MVFR. Elsewhere MVFR
conditions will persist overnight. During the day on Thursday the
cig heights are expected to gradually improve with VFR flight
conditions evolving from midday into the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

Snow is expected to end by 07z with flight conditions improving at
that time to MVFR. MVFR flight conditions will then persist
through early afternoon with cig heights gradually rising, with
VFR conditions around 21z.

Glass

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     32  26  50  39 /   0   0   0   0
Quincy          24  20  45  36 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia        32  25  54  40 /   0   0   0   0
Jefferson City  33  26  56  41 /   0   0   0   0
Salem           30  23  45  37 /   5   0   0   5
Farmington      35  24  49  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 270956
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
356 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Saturday)
Issued at 356 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Clipper system is now well southeast of the CWFA, and only a few
lingering flurries remain.  Expect any lingering precip to end by
12Z this morning and for the rest of the day to be cold and dry.
Some uncertainty on sky condition today as stratus over Iowa is
clearing fairly slowly from northwest to southeast.  Short range NAM
and RAP 925mb RH field has a decent handle on the clouds at this
time, so have used a combination of these guidance products and
satellite observations to try and time gradual clearing today.
Canadian airmass over eastern Dakotas at this time will drift
southeast today and will provide the area with unseasonably cold
air.  Cannot argue with MOS high temps in the mid-upper 20s to mid
30s across the area due to this cold high pressure system`s
influence.

Models continue to advertise a general pattern shift Friday into the
weekend with mid-upper level flow becoming more zonal.  This will
allow warmer air to flow back into the area as the storm track
shifts north.  Temperatures will moderate on Friday as the flow
shifts to the south-southwest on the western side of the Canadian
high which will have settled in over the Eastern CONUS. Expect
temperatures on Friday to be at least 10 to 15 degrees warmer than
today.  Boundary layer moisture will also be on the increase, and
low level RH progs for Friday night/Saturday morning are showing
very moist conditions across the area by 12Z Saturday from about
900mb down to the surface.  Have therefore increased cloud cover on
Saturday morning with some gradual clearing during the afternoon.
Models continue to spit out light QPF Saturday, but am still
skeptical due to the models` tendency to develop precipitation in
strong moisture return situations even with lifting mechanisms
aren`t present.  Indeed, in this case model soundings are showing a
strong subsidence inversion in the low levels and positive values of
omega in the moist layer which would tend to lend credence to a dry
(tho cloudy/mostly cloudy) forecast for Saturday.  Am still sticking
with above normal temperatures Saturday, though due to expected
cloud cover have backed off a little bit from warmest MOS guidance.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 351 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Ridge of high pressure to move into the region on Thanksgiving with
colder temperatures. Clouds will be slow to clear out so temps to
only rise into the mid 20s to around 40.

Another cold night Thursday night with lows in the 20s. Then surface
ridge moves to the east allowing southerly winds to return and
become gusty on Friday. So highs will be near normal in the mid 40s
to mid 50s.

Warmer weather to persist through the weekend with highs in the mid
50s to mid 60s on Saturday and lows Saturday night in the low 40s to
low 50s. Models still bring a cold front into region during the day
on Sunday. High temp forecast to be tricky depending on timing of
this frontal boundary. For now have highs in the upper 40s far north
to the mid 60s far south. Otherwise, low level moisture will be on
the increase ahead of this front so could see some rain across
southern half of forecast area Sunday through Monday with it mixing
with or changing over to snow at times. Lows Sunday night will be in
the upper teens to mid 30s. Highs on Monday will be in the low 30s
to low 40s.

Weak surface ridge to build in Monday night and Tuesday. So will see
dry conditions with lows Monday night in the low 20s to low 30s and
highs on Tuesday in the 40s.

Beyond that extended models have differing solutions with ECMWF a
bit faster with next frontal passage and drier vs. GFS which is
slower and much wetter solution. For now went with a blend, have
slight chance pops Tuesday night and chance pops on Wednesday.
Temperatures to be near freezing Tuesday night in northern portions
of forecast area so could see a mix of rain and snow. Otherwise,
rain possible for mid week next week.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

IFR flight conditions were widespread earlier this evening across
eastern MO and western IL into southeast IA. However over the last
few hours there has been a dramatic improvement as the surface low
redevelops in the TN valley, winds shift to north and northwesterly,
and snowfall diminishes. Radar and present trends suggest snow
should end across the St. Metro area within the next hour or two
with conditions improving at that time to MVFR. Elsewhere MVFR
conditions will persist overnight. During the day on Thursday the
cig heights are expected to gradually improve with VFR flight
conditions evolving from midday into the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

Snow is expected to end by 07z with flight conditions improving at
that time to MVFR. MVFR flight conditions will then persist
through early afternoon with cig heights gradually rising, with
VFR conditions around 21z.

Glass

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     32  26  50  39 /   0   0   0   0
Quincy          24  20  45  36 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia        32  25  54  40 /   0   0   0   0
Jefferson City  33  26  56  41 /   0   0   0   0
Salem           30  23  45  37 /   5   0   0   5
Farmington      35  24  49  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 270956
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
356 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Saturday)
Issued at 356 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Clipper system is now well southeast of the CWFA, and only a few
lingering flurries remain.  Expect any lingering precip to end by
12Z this morning and for the rest of the day to be cold and dry.
Some uncertainty on sky condition today as stratus over Iowa is
clearing fairly slowly from northwest to southeast.  Short range NAM
and RAP 925mb RH field has a decent handle on the clouds at this
time, so have used a combination of these guidance products and
satellite observations to try and time gradual clearing today.
Canadian airmass over eastern Dakotas at this time will drift
southeast today and will provide the area with unseasonably cold
air.  Cannot argue with MOS high temps in the mid-upper 20s to mid
30s across the area due to this cold high pressure system`s
influence.

Models continue to advertise a general pattern shift Friday into the
weekend with mid-upper level flow becoming more zonal.  This will
allow warmer air to flow back into the area as the storm track
shifts north.  Temperatures will moderate on Friday as the flow
shifts to the south-southwest on the western side of the Canadian
high which will have settled in over the Eastern CONUS. Expect
temperatures on Friday to be at least 10 to 15 degrees warmer than
today.  Boundary layer moisture will also be on the increase, and
low level RH progs for Friday night/Saturday morning are showing
very moist conditions across the area by 12Z Saturday from about
900mb down to the surface.  Have therefore increased cloud cover on
Saturday morning with some gradual clearing during the afternoon.
Models continue to spit out light QPF Saturday, but am still
skeptical due to the models` tendency to develop precipitation in
strong moisture return situations even with lifting mechanisms
aren`t present.  Indeed, in this case model soundings are showing a
strong subsidence inversion in the low levels and positive values of
omega in the moist layer which would tend to lend credence to a dry
(tho cloudy/mostly cloudy) forecast for Saturday.  Am still sticking
with above normal temperatures Saturday, though due to expected
cloud cover have backed off a little bit from warmest MOS guidance.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 351 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Ridge of high pressure to move into the region on Thanksgiving with
colder temperatures. Clouds will be slow to clear out so temps to
only rise into the mid 20s to around 40.

Another cold night Thursday night with lows in the 20s. Then surface
ridge moves to the east allowing southerly winds to return and
become gusty on Friday. So highs will be near normal in the mid 40s
to mid 50s.

Warmer weather to persist through the weekend with highs in the mid
50s to mid 60s on Saturday and lows Saturday night in the low 40s to
low 50s. Models still bring a cold front into region during the day
on Sunday. High temp forecast to be tricky depending on timing of
this frontal boundary. For now have highs in the upper 40s far north
to the mid 60s far south. Otherwise, low level moisture will be on
the increase ahead of this front so could see some rain across
southern half of forecast area Sunday through Monday with it mixing
with or changing over to snow at times. Lows Sunday night will be in
the upper teens to mid 30s. Highs on Monday will be in the low 30s
to low 40s.

Weak surface ridge to build in Monday night and Tuesday. So will see
dry conditions with lows Monday night in the low 20s to low 30s and
highs on Tuesday in the 40s.

Beyond that extended models have differing solutions with ECMWF a
bit faster with next frontal passage and drier vs. GFS which is
slower and much wetter solution. For now went with a blend, have
slight chance pops Tuesday night and chance pops on Wednesday.
Temperatures to be near freezing Tuesday night in northern portions
of forecast area so could see a mix of rain and snow. Otherwise,
rain possible for mid week next week.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

IFR flight conditions were widespread earlier this evening across
eastern MO and western IL into southeast IA. However over the last
few hours there has been a dramatic improvement as the surface low
redevelops in the TN valley, winds shift to north and northwesterly,
and snowfall diminishes. Radar and present trends suggest snow
should end across the St. Metro area within the next hour or two
with conditions improving at that time to MVFR. Elsewhere MVFR
conditions will persist overnight. During the day on Thursday the
cig heights are expected to gradually improve with VFR flight
conditions evolving from midday into the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

Snow is expected to end by 07z with flight conditions improving at
that time to MVFR. MVFR flight conditions will then persist
through early afternoon with cig heights gradually rising, with
VFR conditions around 21z.

Glass

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     32  26  50  39 /   0   0   0   0
Quincy          24  20  45  36 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia        32  25  54  40 /   0   0   0   0
Jefferson City  33  26  56  41 /   0   0   0   0
Salem           30  23  45  37 /   5   0   0   5
Farmington      35  24  49  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 270956
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
356 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Saturday)
Issued at 356 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Clipper system is now well southeast of the CWFA, and only a few
lingering flurries remain.  Expect any lingering precip to end by
12Z this morning and for the rest of the day to be cold and dry.
Some uncertainty on sky condition today as stratus over Iowa is
clearing fairly slowly from northwest to southeast.  Short range NAM
and RAP 925mb RH field has a decent handle on the clouds at this
time, so have used a combination of these guidance products and
satellite observations to try and time gradual clearing today.
Canadian airmass over eastern Dakotas at this time will drift
southeast today and will provide the area with unseasonably cold
air.  Cannot argue with MOS high temps in the mid-upper 20s to mid
30s across the area due to this cold high pressure system`s
influence.

Models continue to advertise a general pattern shift Friday into the
weekend with mid-upper level flow becoming more zonal.  This will
allow warmer air to flow back into the area as the storm track
shifts north.  Temperatures will moderate on Friday as the flow
shifts to the south-southwest on the western side of the Canadian
high which will have settled in over the Eastern CONUS. Expect
temperatures on Friday to be at least 10 to 15 degrees warmer than
today.  Boundary layer moisture will also be on the increase, and
low level RH progs for Friday night/Saturday morning are showing
very moist conditions across the area by 12Z Saturday from about
900mb down to the surface.  Have therefore increased cloud cover on
Saturday morning with some gradual clearing during the afternoon.
Models continue to spit out light QPF Saturday, but am still
skeptical due to the models` tendency to develop precipitation in
strong moisture return situations even with lifting mechanisms
aren`t present.  Indeed, in this case model soundings are showing a
strong subsidence inversion in the low levels and positive values of
omega in the moist layer which would tend to lend credence to a dry
(tho cloudy/mostly cloudy) forecast for Saturday.  Am still sticking
with above normal temperatures Saturday, though due to expected
cloud cover have backed off a little bit from warmest MOS guidance.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 351 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Ridge of high pressure to move into the region on Thanksgiving with
colder temperatures. Clouds will be slow to clear out so temps to
only rise into the mid 20s to around 40.

Another cold night Thursday night with lows in the 20s. Then surface
ridge moves to the east allowing southerly winds to return and
become gusty on Friday. So highs will be near normal in the mid 40s
to mid 50s.

Warmer weather to persist through the weekend with highs in the mid
50s to mid 60s on Saturday and lows Saturday night in the low 40s to
low 50s. Models still bring a cold front into region during the day
on Sunday. High temp forecast to be tricky depending on timing of
this frontal boundary. For now have highs in the upper 40s far north
to the mid 60s far south. Otherwise, low level moisture will be on
the increase ahead of this front so could see some rain across
southern half of forecast area Sunday through Monday with it mixing
with or changing over to snow at times. Lows Sunday night will be in
the upper teens to mid 30s. Highs on Monday will be in the low 30s
to low 40s.

Weak surface ridge to build in Monday night and Tuesday. So will see
dry conditions with lows Monday night in the low 20s to low 30s and
highs on Tuesday in the 40s.

Beyond that extended models have differing solutions with ECMWF a
bit faster with next frontal passage and drier vs. GFS which is
slower and much wetter solution. For now went with a blend, have
slight chance pops Tuesday night and chance pops on Wednesday.
Temperatures to be near freezing Tuesday night in northern portions
of forecast area so could see a mix of rain and snow. Otherwise,
rain possible for mid week next week.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

IFR flight conditions were widespread earlier this evening across
eastern MO and western IL into southeast IA. However over the last
few hours there has been a dramatic improvement as the surface low
redevelops in the TN valley, winds shift to north and northwesterly,
and snowfall diminishes. Radar and present trends suggest snow
should end across the St. Metro area within the next hour or two
with conditions improving at that time to MVFR. Elsewhere MVFR
conditions will persist overnight. During the day on Thursday the
cig heights are expected to gradually improve with VFR flight
conditions evolving from midday into the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

Snow is expected to end by 07z with flight conditions improving at
that time to MVFR. MVFR flight conditions will then persist
through early afternoon with cig heights gradually rising, with
VFR conditions around 21z.

Glass

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     32  26  50  39 /   0   0   0   0
Quincy          24  20  45  36 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia        32  25  54  40 /   0   0   0   0
Jefferson City  33  26  56  41 /   0   0   0   0
Salem           30  23  45  37 /   5   0   0   5
Farmington      35  24  49  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 270956
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
356 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Saturday)
Issued at 356 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Clipper system is now well southeast of the CWFA, and only a few
lingering flurries remain.  Expect any lingering precip to end by
12Z this morning and for the rest of the day to be cold and dry.
Some uncertainty on sky condition today as stratus over Iowa is
clearing fairly slowly from northwest to southeast.  Short range NAM
and RAP 925mb RH field has a decent handle on the clouds at this
time, so have used a combination of these guidance products and
satellite observations to try and time gradual clearing today.
Canadian airmass over eastern Dakotas at this time will drift
southeast today and will provide the area with unseasonably cold
air.  Cannot argue with MOS high temps in the mid-upper 20s to mid
30s across the area due to this cold high pressure system`s
influence.

Models continue to advertise a general pattern shift Friday into the
weekend with mid-upper level flow becoming more zonal.  This will
allow warmer air to flow back into the area as the storm track
shifts north.  Temperatures will moderate on Friday as the flow
shifts to the south-southwest on the western side of the Canadian
high which will have settled in over the Eastern CONUS. Expect
temperatures on Friday to be at least 10 to 15 degrees warmer than
today.  Boundary layer moisture will also be on the increase, and
low level RH progs for Friday night/Saturday morning are showing
very moist conditions across the area by 12Z Saturday from about
900mb down to the surface.  Have therefore increased cloud cover on
Saturday morning with some gradual clearing during the afternoon.
Models continue to spit out light QPF Saturday, but am still
skeptical due to the models` tendency to develop precipitation in
strong moisture return situations even with lifting mechanisms
aren`t present.  Indeed, in this case model soundings are showing a
strong subsidence inversion in the low levels and positive values of
omega in the moist layer which would tend to lend credence to a dry
(tho cloudy/mostly cloudy) forecast for Saturday.  Am still sticking
with above normal temperatures Saturday, though due to expected
cloud cover have backed off a little bit from warmest MOS guidance.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 351 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Ridge of high pressure to move into the region on Thanksgiving with
colder temperatures. Clouds will be slow to clear out so temps to
only rise into the mid 20s to around 40.

Another cold night Thursday night with lows in the 20s. Then surface
ridge moves to the east allowing southerly winds to return and
become gusty on Friday. So highs will be near normal in the mid 40s
to mid 50s.

Warmer weather to persist through the weekend with highs in the mid
50s to mid 60s on Saturday and lows Saturday night in the low 40s to
low 50s. Models still bring a cold front into region during the day
on Sunday. High temp forecast to be tricky depending on timing of
this frontal boundary. For now have highs in the upper 40s far north
to the mid 60s far south. Otherwise, low level moisture will be on
the increase ahead of this front so could see some rain across
southern half of forecast area Sunday through Monday with it mixing
with or changing over to snow at times. Lows Sunday night will be in
the upper teens to mid 30s. Highs on Monday will be in the low 30s
to low 40s.

Weak surface ridge to build in Monday night and Tuesday. So will see
dry conditions with lows Monday night in the low 20s to low 30s and
highs on Tuesday in the 40s.

Beyond that extended models have differing solutions with ECMWF a
bit faster with next frontal passage and drier vs. GFS which is
slower and much wetter solution. For now went with a blend, have
slight chance pops Tuesday night and chance pops on Wednesday.
Temperatures to be near freezing Tuesday night in northern portions
of forecast area so could see a mix of rain and snow. Otherwise,
rain possible for mid week next week.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

IFR flight conditions were widespread earlier this evening across
eastern MO and western IL into southeast IA. However over the last
few hours there has been a dramatic improvement as the surface low
redevelops in the TN valley, winds shift to north and northwesterly,
and snowfall diminishes. Radar and present trends suggest snow
should end across the St. Metro area within the next hour or two
with conditions improving at that time to MVFR. Elsewhere MVFR
conditions will persist overnight. During the day on Thursday the
cig heights are expected to gradually improve with VFR flight
conditions evolving from midday into the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

Snow is expected to end by 07z with flight conditions improving at
that time to MVFR. MVFR flight conditions will then persist
through early afternoon with cig heights gradually rising, with
VFR conditions around 21z.

Glass

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     32  26  50  39 /   0   0   0   0
Quincy          24  20  45  36 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia        32  25  54  40 /   0   0   0   0
Jefferson City  33  26  56  41 /   0   0   0   0
Salem           30  23  45  37 /   5   0   0   5
Farmington      35  24  49  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 270956
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
356 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Saturday)
Issued at 356 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Clipper system is now well southeast of the CWFA, and only a few
lingering flurries remain.  Expect any lingering precip to end by
12Z this morning and for the rest of the day to be cold and dry.
Some uncertainty on sky condition today as stratus over Iowa is
clearing fairly slowly from northwest to southeast.  Short range NAM
and RAP 925mb RH field has a decent handle on the clouds at this
time, so have used a combination of these guidance products and
satellite observations to try and time gradual clearing today.
Canadian airmass over eastern Dakotas at this time will drift
southeast today and will provide the area with unseasonably cold
air.  Cannot argue with MOS high temps in the mid-upper 20s to mid
30s across the area due to this cold high pressure system`s
influence.

Models continue to advertise a general pattern shift Friday into the
weekend with mid-upper level flow becoming more zonal.  This will
allow warmer air to flow back into the area as the storm track
shifts north.  Temperatures will moderate on Friday as the flow
shifts to the south-southwest on the western side of the Canadian
high which will have settled in over the Eastern CONUS. Expect
temperatures on Friday to be at least 10 to 15 degrees warmer than
today.  Boundary layer moisture will also be on the increase, and
low level RH progs for Friday night/Saturday morning are showing
very moist conditions across the area by 12Z Saturday from about
900mb down to the surface.  Have therefore increased cloud cover on
Saturday morning with some gradual clearing during the afternoon.
Models continue to spit out light QPF Saturday, but am still
skeptical due to the models` tendency to develop precipitation in
strong moisture return situations even with lifting mechanisms
aren`t present.  Indeed, in this case model soundings are showing a
strong subsidence inversion in the low levels and positive values of
omega in the moist layer which would tend to lend credence to a dry
(tho cloudy/mostly cloudy) forecast for Saturday.  Am still sticking
with above normal temperatures Saturday, though due to expected
cloud cover have backed off a little bit from warmest MOS guidance.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 351 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Ridge of high pressure to move into the region on Thanksgiving with
colder temperatures. Clouds will be slow to clear out so temps to
only rise into the mid 20s to around 40.

Another cold night Thursday night with lows in the 20s. Then surface
ridge moves to the east allowing southerly winds to return and
become gusty on Friday. So highs will be near normal in the mid 40s
to mid 50s.

Warmer weather to persist through the weekend with highs in the mid
50s to mid 60s on Saturday and lows Saturday night in the low 40s to
low 50s. Models still bring a cold front into region during the day
on Sunday. High temp forecast to be tricky depending on timing of
this frontal boundary. For now have highs in the upper 40s far north
to the mid 60s far south. Otherwise, low level moisture will be on
the increase ahead of this front so could see some rain across
southern half of forecast area Sunday through Monday with it mixing
with or changing over to snow at times. Lows Sunday night will be in
the upper teens to mid 30s. Highs on Monday will be in the low 30s
to low 40s.

Weak surface ridge to build in Monday night and Tuesday. So will see
dry conditions with lows Monday night in the low 20s to low 30s and
highs on Tuesday in the 40s.

Beyond that extended models have differing solutions with ECMWF a
bit faster with next frontal passage and drier vs. GFS which is
slower and much wetter solution. For now went with a blend, have
slight chance pops Tuesday night and chance pops on Wednesday.
Temperatures to be near freezing Tuesday night in northern portions
of forecast area so could see a mix of rain and snow. Otherwise,
rain possible for mid week next week.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

IFR flight conditions were widespread earlier this evening across
eastern MO and western IL into southeast IA. However over the last
few hours there has been a dramatic improvement as the surface low
redevelops in the TN valley, winds shift to north and northwesterly,
and snowfall diminishes. Radar and present trends suggest snow
should end across the St. Metro area within the next hour or two
with conditions improving at that time to MVFR. Elsewhere MVFR
conditions will persist overnight. During the day on Thursday the
cig heights are expected to gradually improve with VFR flight
conditions evolving from midday into the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

Snow is expected to end by 07z with flight conditions improving at
that time to MVFR. MVFR flight conditions will then persist
through early afternoon with cig heights gradually rising, with
VFR conditions around 21z.

Glass

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     32  26  50  39 /   0   0   0   0
Quincy          24  20  45  36 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia        32  25  54  40 /   0   0   0   0
Jefferson City  33  26  56  41 /   0   0   0   0
Salem           30  23  45  37 /   5   0   0   5
Farmington      35  24  49  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 270956
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
356 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Saturday)
Issued at 356 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

Clipper system is now well southeast of the CWFA, and only a few
lingering flurries remain.  Expect any lingering precip to end by
12Z this morning and for the rest of the day to be cold and dry.
Some uncertainty on sky condition today as stratus over Iowa is
clearing fairly slowly from northwest to southeast.  Short range NAM
and RAP 925mb RH field has a decent handle on the clouds at this
time, so have used a combination of these guidance products and
satellite observations to try and time gradual clearing today.
Canadian airmass over eastern Dakotas at this time will drift
southeast today and will provide the area with unseasonably cold
air.  Cannot argue with MOS high temps in the mid-upper 20s to mid
30s across the area due to this cold high pressure system`s
influence.

Models continue to advertise a general pattern shift Friday into the
weekend with mid-upper level flow becoming more zonal.  This will
allow warmer air to flow back into the area as the storm track
shifts north.  Temperatures will moderate on Friday as the flow
shifts to the south-southwest on the western side of the Canadian
high which will have settled in over the Eastern CONUS. Expect
temperatures on Friday to be at least 10 to 15 degrees warmer than
today.  Boundary layer moisture will also be on the increase, and
low level RH progs for Friday night/Saturday morning are showing
very moist conditions across the area by 12Z Saturday from about
900mb down to the surface.  Have therefore increased cloud cover on
Saturday morning with some gradual clearing during the afternoon.
Models continue to spit out light QPF Saturday, but am still
skeptical due to the models` tendency to develop precipitation in
strong moisture return situations even with lifting mechanisms
aren`t present.  Indeed, in this case model soundings are showing a
strong subsidence inversion in the low levels and positive values of
omega in the moist layer which would tend to lend credence to a dry
(tho cloudy/mostly cloudy) forecast for Saturday.  Am still sticking
with above normal temperatures Saturday, though due to expected
cloud cover have backed off a little bit from warmest MOS guidance.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 351 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Ridge of high pressure to move into the region on Thanksgiving with
colder temperatures. Clouds will be slow to clear out so temps to
only rise into the mid 20s to around 40.

Another cold night Thursday night with lows in the 20s. Then surface
ridge moves to the east allowing southerly winds to return and
become gusty on Friday. So highs will be near normal in the mid 40s
to mid 50s.

Warmer weather to persist through the weekend with highs in the mid
50s to mid 60s on Saturday and lows Saturday night in the low 40s to
low 50s. Models still bring a cold front into region during the day
on Sunday. High temp forecast to be tricky depending on timing of
this frontal boundary. For now have highs in the upper 40s far north
to the mid 60s far south. Otherwise, low level moisture will be on
the increase ahead of this front so could see some rain across
southern half of forecast area Sunday through Monday with it mixing
with or changing over to snow at times. Lows Sunday night will be in
the upper teens to mid 30s. Highs on Monday will be in the low 30s
to low 40s.

Weak surface ridge to build in Monday night and Tuesday. So will see
dry conditions with lows Monday night in the low 20s to low 30s and
highs on Tuesday in the 40s.

Beyond that extended models have differing solutions with ECMWF a
bit faster with next frontal passage and drier vs. GFS which is
slower and much wetter solution. For now went with a blend, have
slight chance pops Tuesday night and chance pops on Wednesday.
Temperatures to be near freezing Tuesday night in northern portions
of forecast area so could see a mix of rain and snow. Otherwise,
rain possible for mid week next week.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

IFR flight conditions were widespread earlier this evening across
eastern MO and western IL into southeast IA. However over the last
few hours there has been a dramatic improvement as the surface low
redevelops in the TN valley, winds shift to north and northwesterly,
and snowfall diminishes. Radar and present trends suggest snow
should end across the St. Metro area within the next hour or two
with conditions improving at that time to MVFR. Elsewhere MVFR
conditions will persist overnight. During the day on Thursday the
cig heights are expected to gradually improve with VFR flight
conditions evolving from midday into the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

Snow is expected to end by 07z with flight conditions improving at
that time to MVFR. MVFR flight conditions will then persist
through early afternoon with cig heights gradually rising, with
VFR conditions around 21z.

Glass

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     32  26  50  39 /   0   0   0   0
Quincy          24  20  45  36 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia        32  25  54  40 /   0   0   0   0
Jefferson City  33  26  56  41 /   0   0   0   0
Salem           30  23  45  37 /   5   0   0   5
Farmington      35  24  49  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 270954
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
354 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 302 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Low clouds have hung on over all but the far western cwfa so far
tonight. We have started to see some erosion of the western
edge, and based on 925/850mb humidity progs, the clearing line
will continue to shift east as low level winds begin to back to
the west and southwest and warm advection (albeit weak initially)
kicks in in the lower levels. The clouds may, however, hang on for
a bit over the eastern cwfa today.

Sfc high pressure will keep winds light today. A s-se sfc wind
will eventually start to kick in as the high exits off to the east
tonight. Temperatures might drop quickly this evening then level
off with the increasing sfc wind.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Gusty s-sw winds will kick in Friday with a sharp warming trend.
Progged soundings show a shallow moist layer underneath a capping
inversion/elevated mixed layer Friday night and into the weekend.
We might see some shallow advection stratus/fog develop late Fri
night into early Saturday. Given the shallow depth, it look like
the moisture will mix out, even with low seasonal sun angles, but
this bears watching since it may affect daytime temperatures.

For Friday-Saturday, went with a general consensus of guidance on
temperatures with most if not all areas reaching the 60s over the
weekend.

A split mid level flow pattern will gradually develop over the
western and central CONUS with a northern stream shortwave
supporting a cold frontal passage with some light rain late Sunday
night with cooler/colder temperatures Monday-Tuesday. Quite a
difference between the ECMWF and GFS by Tuesday/Wednesday with
just basic placement of large scale features. In general, both
models don`t show any real cold air surging south, but they vary
on the timing and degree of warm air advection by mid/late week.
Again, the forecast represents a blend which in affect warms
temperatures a bit by day 6 and 7 (Tuesday/Wednesday) but with low
confidence.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: The southwest edge of a large area of
mvfr ceilings is affecting the taf sites and based on trends will
keep mvfr ceilings at all sites early in the taf period through
15z. Northwest winds will diminish over the next few hours as a
ridge of high pressure moves east into the area.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KSGF 270954
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
354 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 302 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Low clouds have hung on over all but the far western cwfa so far
tonight. We have started to see some erosion of the western
edge, and based on 925/850mb humidity progs, the clearing line
will continue to shift east as low level winds begin to back to
the west and southwest and warm advection (albeit weak initially)
kicks in in the lower levels. The clouds may, however, hang on for
a bit over the eastern cwfa today.

Sfc high pressure will keep winds light today. A s-se sfc wind
will eventually start to kick in as the high exits off to the east
tonight. Temperatures might drop quickly this evening then level
off with the increasing sfc wind.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Gusty s-sw winds will kick in Friday with a sharp warming trend.
Progged soundings show a shallow moist layer underneath a capping
inversion/elevated mixed layer Friday night and into the weekend.
We might see some shallow advection stratus/fog develop late Fri
night into early Saturday. Given the shallow depth, it look like
the moisture will mix out, even with low seasonal sun angles, but
this bears watching since it may affect daytime temperatures.

For Friday-Saturday, went with a general consensus of guidance on
temperatures with most if not all areas reaching the 60s over the
weekend.

A split mid level flow pattern will gradually develop over the
western and central CONUS with a northern stream shortwave
supporting a cold frontal passage with some light rain late Sunday
night with cooler/colder temperatures Monday-Tuesday. Quite a
difference between the ECMWF and GFS by Tuesday/Wednesday with
just basic placement of large scale features. In general, both
models don`t show any real cold air surging south, but they vary
on the timing and degree of warm air advection by mid/late week.
Again, the forecast represents a blend which in affect warms
temperatures a bit by day 6 and 7 (Tuesday/Wednesday) but with low
confidence.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: The southwest edge of a large area of
mvfr ceilings is affecting the taf sites and based on trends will
keep mvfr ceilings at all sites early in the taf period through
15z. Northwest winds will diminish over the next few hours as a
ridge of high pressure moves east into the area.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 270954
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
354 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 302 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Low clouds have hung on over all but the far western cwfa so far
tonight. We have started to see some erosion of the western
edge, and based on 925/850mb humidity progs, the clearing line
will continue to shift east as low level winds begin to back to
the west and southwest and warm advection (albeit weak initially)
kicks in in the lower levels. The clouds may, however, hang on for
a bit over the eastern cwfa today.

Sfc high pressure will keep winds light today. A s-se sfc wind
will eventually start to kick in as the high exits off to the east
tonight. Temperatures might drop quickly this evening then level
off with the increasing sfc wind.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Gusty s-sw winds will kick in Friday with a sharp warming trend.
Progged soundings show a shallow moist layer underneath a capping
inversion/elevated mixed layer Friday night and into the weekend.
We might see some shallow advection stratus/fog develop late Fri
night into early Saturday. Given the shallow depth, it look like
the moisture will mix out, even with low seasonal sun angles, but
this bears watching since it may affect daytime temperatures.

For Friday-Saturday, went with a general consensus of guidance on
temperatures with most if not all areas reaching the 60s over the
weekend.

A split mid level flow pattern will gradually develop over the
western and central CONUS with a northern stream shortwave
supporting a cold frontal passage with some light rain late Sunday
night with cooler/colder temperatures Monday-Tuesday. Quite a
difference between the ECMWF and GFS by Tuesday/Wednesday with
just basic placement of large scale features. In general, both
models don`t show any real cold air surging south, but they vary
on the timing and degree of warm air advection by mid/late week.
Again, the forecast represents a blend which in affect warms
temperatures a bit by day 6 and 7 (Tuesday/Wednesday) but with low
confidence.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: The southwest edge of a large area of
mvfr ceilings is affecting the taf sites and based on trends will
keep mvfr ceilings at all sites early in the taf period through
15z. Northwest winds will diminish over the next few hours as a
ridge of high pressure moves east into the area.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KEAX 270912
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
312 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Not much change to the forecast philosophy through the weekend, with
relatively benign weather expected outside of brief cold and warm
spells. Low clouds present this morning will gradually have some
breaks as the day progresses. Even with some insolation, cold air
will remain in place as a surface high pressure axis centers over
the CWA by midday. Highs will only reach the middle 20s to upper 30s
this afternoon. Initial northerly winds will become calm as the high
pressure axis moves through, before becoming southerly by late this
afternoon. Dry weather will prevail today into tonight.

Friday into Saturday will feature a notable warmup as weak upper
ridging, flattening and becoming westerly flow, across the western
two-thirds of the CONUS materializes. The low-level thermal axis
will develop over the central Plains and expand into our area early
this weekend. The end result is a quick warmup, with the warmest day
expected on Saturday, with highs reaching the middle 50s to middle
60s across the forecast area. Precipitation is not expected during
this multi-day period of warm weather, making for an optimal time
for any outdoor activities. There may be some stratus that forms
across portions of the CWA Saturday morning upon increasing moisture
advection, but these clouds should gradually mix out by midday.

As models gradually converge closer to a consensus on Sunday, a
fairly impressive temperature gradient is expected across the
forecast area. A cold front will push through the CWA beginning
Sunday morning. Areas over far northwest Missouri may see the warmest
temperatures around sunrise, with falling temperatures thereafter.
Warmer weather is expected with southern geographic extent with a
longer duration in the warm sector ahead of the front. Highs on
Sunday will range from the middle 30s far northwest MO to near 60
over central MO. Best probabilities of light precipitation should
exist to the southeast of the CWA.

The work week ahead looks cool, with temperatures generally below
normal. Substantial differences develop between model solutions after
Monday, with a temperature difference spread of 8C at H85 by
Thursday among several members. This leads to high forecast
uncertainty towards the end of the forecast period. Blended approach
keeps temperatures cool, but could certainly see a more aggressive
temperature swing in one direction or another depending on the the
eventual synoptic evolution, progressive versus highly amplified.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1116 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Expansive MVFR deck is evident on satellite imagery across all of
Missouri...eastern Kansas and southeastern Nebraska. These cigs will
move little thru mid-morning and affect the terminals thru 15Z with a
cloud deck btn 1-2kft. Cigs will finally sct out around 15Z as drier
air associated with surface high pressure builds into the region.
Expect sct-bkn mid-lvl clouds from late morning into the early
afternoon before giving way to sct high clouds. Northwest winds
btn 10-15kts at TAF issuance will subside overnight and become lgt
and vrb this morning. Winds will then pick up again from the SE
around 5-10kts during the afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 270912
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
312 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Not much change to the forecast philosophy through the weekend, with
relatively benign weather expected outside of brief cold and warm
spells. Low clouds present this morning will gradually have some
breaks as the day progresses. Even with some insolation, cold air
will remain in place as a surface high pressure axis centers over
the CWA by midday. Highs will only reach the middle 20s to upper 30s
this afternoon. Initial northerly winds will become calm as the high
pressure axis moves through, before becoming southerly by late this
afternoon. Dry weather will prevail today into tonight.

Friday into Saturday will feature a notable warmup as weak upper
ridging, flattening and becoming westerly flow, across the western
two-thirds of the CONUS materializes. The low-level thermal axis
will develop over the central Plains and expand into our area early
this weekend. The end result is a quick warmup, with the warmest day
expected on Saturday, with highs reaching the middle 50s to middle
60s across the forecast area. Precipitation is not expected during
this multi-day period of warm weather, making for an optimal time
for any outdoor activities. There may be some stratus that forms
across portions of the CWA Saturday morning upon increasing moisture
advection, but these clouds should gradually mix out by midday.

As models gradually converge closer to a consensus on Sunday, a
fairly impressive temperature gradient is expected across the
forecast area. A cold front will push through the CWA beginning
Sunday morning. Areas over far northwest Missouri may see the warmest
temperatures around sunrise, with falling temperatures thereafter.
Warmer weather is expected with southern geographic extent with a
longer duration in the warm sector ahead of the front. Highs on
Sunday will range from the middle 30s far northwest MO to near 60
over central MO. Best probabilities of light precipitation should
exist to the southeast of the CWA.

The work week ahead looks cool, with temperatures generally below
normal. Substantial differences develop between model solutions after
Monday, with a temperature difference spread of 8C at H85 by
Thursday among several members. This leads to high forecast
uncertainty towards the end of the forecast period. Blended approach
keeps temperatures cool, but could certainly see a more aggressive
temperature swing in one direction or another depending on the the
eventual synoptic evolution, progressive versus highly amplified.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1116 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Expansive MVFR deck is evident on satellite imagery across all of
Missouri...eastern Kansas and southeastern Nebraska. These cigs will
move little thru mid-morning and affect the terminals thru 15Z with a
cloud deck btn 1-2kft. Cigs will finally sct out around 15Z as drier
air associated with surface high pressure builds into the region.
Expect sct-bkn mid-lvl clouds from late morning into the early
afternoon before giving way to sct high clouds. Northwest winds
btn 10-15kts at TAF issuance will subside overnight and become lgt
and vrb this morning. Winds will then pick up again from the SE
around 5-10kts during the afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...73






000
FXUS63 KLSX 270545
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1145 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 836 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Light snow continues to fall across much of the forecast area
this evening associated with a northwest flow shortwave and an
associated weak surface low now near STL. Most of the
precipitation was in the form of light snow, although there was
also light rain across portions of central and southeast MO ahead
of a cold front which extended from just east of COU southwest to
just east of SGF where there was a wedge of warmer air southwest
of the surface low and an occluded front. There was also patchy
drizzle or freezing drizzle where the lift was weak and the low
level cloud cover quite shallow. Only minor additional snow
accumulations of under one inch are expected tonight with much of
the area receiving a total of around one inch of snow depth with
isolated spots up to 2 inches. There should just be some lingering
flurries late tonight. As temperatures cool well below freezing
late tonight there may be some slick icy spots on untreated
roads, sidewalks, driveways and parking lots where melted snow
refreezes.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 351 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Clipper system continues to impact our forecast area at this time.

At 21z...a low pressure center was located in northeast MO and
was moving slowly to the southeast. A warm front extended to the
south-southeast of this low pressure area into east-central MO--just
west of the STL metro area--where temps have risen into the upper
30s and low 40s. The cold front associated with this system is
gaining on the warm front and was now located from this low pressure
area and to the south into central MO. Temps ahead/east of the warm
front have remained in the low-mid 30s. An area of precipitation
extended in a band on the IL side of the river mostly. Nearly all of
this precipitation was snow. Drizzle has developed on the backside
of this main band and into the vicinity of what is beginning to be
an occluded front, as the cold front catches the warm.

The low pressure in northeast MO is occluding with all anticipation
that a new triple point will develop over TN this evening. In the
meantime, the front over our region will become occluded as well and
simply a wind shift line and focus for drizzle.

Temps near the MS river and IL will stall this evening and then
slowly fall, while a more normal diurnal trend will be seen for
central MO and southeast MO.  Min temps tonight will strongly favor
the higher MET MOS values with low clouds expected to stick around
all night.

The precipitation band is expected to soon stall over in IL and
gradually weaken this evening as the new focus shifts well to the
southeast for the overnight.  Leftover diurnally generated scattered
showers...mostly snow by this point...will wander into the areas
where the main pcpn band has vacated along with patchy drizzle
associated with the occluded front moving thru. Temps may be cold
enough for some FZDZ to result as well.

Additional snow accums will be minimal...with up to an inch extra in
southwest IL.  Icing potential will need to be watched carefully
with models and radar not picking up on this too well yet but
scenario does favor drizzle thru the evening.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 351 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Ridge of high pressure to move into the region on Thanksgiving with
colder temperatures. Clouds will be slow to clear out so temps to
only rise into the mid 20s to around 40.

Another cold night Thursday night with lows in the 20s. Then surface
ridge moves to the east allowing southerly winds to return and
become gusty on Friday. So highs will be near normal in the mid 40s
to mid 50s.

Warmer weather to persist through the weekend with highs in the mid
50s to mid 60s on Saturday and lows Saturday night in the low 40s to
low 50s. Models still bring a cold front into region during the day
on Sunday. High temp forecast to be tricky depending on timing of
this frontal boundary. For now have highs in the upper 40s far north
to the mid 60s far south. Otherwise, low level moisture will be on
the increase ahead of this front so could see some rain across
southern half of forecast area Sunday through Monday with it mixing
with or changing over to snow at times. Lows Sunday night will be in
the upper teens to mid 30s. Highs on Monday will be in the low 30s
to low 40s.

Weak surface ridge to build in Monday night and Tuesday. So will see
dry conditions with lows Monday night in the low 20s to low 30s and
highs on Tuesday in the 40s.

Beyond that extended models have differing solutions with ECMWF a
bit faster with next frontal passage and drier vs. GFS which is
slower and much wetter solution. For now went with a blend, have
slight chance pops Tuesday night and chance pops on Wednesday.
Temperatures to be near freezing Tuesday night in northern portions
of forecast area so could see a mix of rain and snow. Otherwise,
rain possible for mid week next week.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

IFR flight conditions were widespread earlier this evening across
eastern MO and western IL into southeast IA. However over the last
few hours there has been a dramatic improvement as the surface low
redevelops in the TN valley, winds shift to north and northwesterly,
and snowfall diminishes. Radar and present trends suggest snow
should end across the St. Metro area within the next hour or two
with conditions improving at that time to MVFR. Elsewhere MVFR
conditions will persist overnight. During the day on Thursday the
cig heights are expected to gradually improve with VFR flight
conditions evolving from midday into the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

Snow is expected to end by 07z with flight conditions improving at
that time to MVFR. MVFR flight conditions will then persist
through early afternoon with cig heights gradually rising, with
VFR conditions around 21z.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 270545
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1145 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 836 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Light snow continues to fall across much of the forecast area
this evening associated with a northwest flow shortwave and an
associated weak surface low now near STL. Most of the
precipitation was in the form of light snow, although there was
also light rain across portions of central and southeast MO ahead
of a cold front which extended from just east of COU southwest to
just east of SGF where there was a wedge of warmer air southwest
of the surface low and an occluded front. There was also patchy
drizzle or freezing drizzle where the lift was weak and the low
level cloud cover quite shallow. Only minor additional snow
accumulations of under one inch are expected tonight with much of
the area receiving a total of around one inch of snow depth with
isolated spots up to 2 inches. There should just be some lingering
flurries late tonight. As temperatures cool well below freezing
late tonight there may be some slick icy spots on untreated
roads, sidewalks, driveways and parking lots where melted snow
refreezes.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 351 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Clipper system continues to impact our forecast area at this time.

At 21z...a low pressure center was located in northeast MO and
was moving slowly to the southeast. A warm front extended to the
south-southeast of this low pressure area into east-central MO--just
west of the STL metro area--where temps have risen into the upper
30s and low 40s. The cold front associated with this system is
gaining on the warm front and was now located from this low pressure
area and to the south into central MO. Temps ahead/east of the warm
front have remained in the low-mid 30s. An area of precipitation
extended in a band on the IL side of the river mostly. Nearly all of
this precipitation was snow. Drizzle has developed on the backside
of this main band and into the vicinity of what is beginning to be
an occluded front, as the cold front catches the warm.

The low pressure in northeast MO is occluding with all anticipation
that a new triple point will develop over TN this evening. In the
meantime, the front over our region will become occluded as well and
simply a wind shift line and focus for drizzle.

Temps near the MS river and IL will stall this evening and then
slowly fall, while a more normal diurnal trend will be seen for
central MO and southeast MO.  Min temps tonight will strongly favor
the higher MET MOS values with low clouds expected to stick around
all night.

The precipitation band is expected to soon stall over in IL and
gradually weaken this evening as the new focus shifts well to the
southeast for the overnight.  Leftover diurnally generated scattered
showers...mostly snow by this point...will wander into the areas
where the main pcpn band has vacated along with patchy drizzle
associated with the occluded front moving thru. Temps may be cold
enough for some FZDZ to result as well.

Additional snow accums will be minimal...with up to an inch extra in
southwest IL.  Icing potential will need to be watched carefully
with models and radar not picking up on this too well yet but
scenario does favor drizzle thru the evening.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 351 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Ridge of high pressure to move into the region on Thanksgiving with
colder temperatures. Clouds will be slow to clear out so temps to
only rise into the mid 20s to around 40.

Another cold night Thursday night with lows in the 20s. Then surface
ridge moves to the east allowing southerly winds to return and
become gusty on Friday. So highs will be near normal in the mid 40s
to mid 50s.

Warmer weather to persist through the weekend with highs in the mid
50s to mid 60s on Saturday and lows Saturday night in the low 40s to
low 50s. Models still bring a cold front into region during the day
on Sunday. High temp forecast to be tricky depending on timing of
this frontal boundary. For now have highs in the upper 40s far north
to the mid 60s far south. Otherwise, low level moisture will be on
the increase ahead of this front so could see some rain across
southern half of forecast area Sunday through Monday with it mixing
with or changing over to snow at times. Lows Sunday night will be in
the upper teens to mid 30s. Highs on Monday will be in the low 30s
to low 40s.

Weak surface ridge to build in Monday night and Tuesday. So will see
dry conditions with lows Monday night in the low 20s to low 30s and
highs on Tuesday in the 40s.

Beyond that extended models have differing solutions with ECMWF a
bit faster with next frontal passage and drier vs. GFS which is
slower and much wetter solution. For now went with a blend, have
slight chance pops Tuesday night and chance pops on Wednesday.
Temperatures to be near freezing Tuesday night in northern portions
of forecast area so could see a mix of rain and snow. Otherwise,
rain possible for mid week next week.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

IFR flight conditions were widespread earlier this evening across
eastern MO and western IL into southeast IA. However over the last
few hours there has been a dramatic improvement as the surface low
redevelops in the TN valley, winds shift to north and northwesterly,
and snowfall diminishes. Radar and present trends suggest snow
should end across the St. Metro area within the next hour or two
with conditions improving at that time to MVFR. Elsewhere MVFR
conditions will persist overnight. During the day on Thursday the
cig heights are expected to gradually improve with VFR flight
conditions evolving from midday into the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

Snow is expected to end by 07z with flight conditions improving at
that time to MVFR. MVFR flight conditions will then persist
through early afternoon with cig heights gradually rising, with
VFR conditions around 21z.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 270538
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1138 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A vigorous shortwave trough was sliding southeast across Missouri
this afternoon. This system brought a relatively brief period of
light snow this morning. Scattered light rain/snow showers and
sprinkles/flurries had developed this afternoon underneath the
upper level cold core.

Clouds along with the scattered light precipitation will persist
into the late afternoon and perhaps early evening hours primarily
across the eastern Ozarks.

Surface high pressure will build into the Ozarks Thanksgiving day
providing tranquil and chilly weather conditions. Under plenty of
sunshine high temperatures will be 10-15 degrees below normal.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

The upper pattern will become more zonal as we head into Friday
and Saturday while southerly winds return. This will result in a
substantial warming trend with highs climbing into the 60s by
Sunday.

A dry cold front will sag southward across the region Sunday while
the main belt of westerlies remains to our north. This front will
stall just to our south across Arkansas Sunday night into Monday.
Moisture and warm air advection over top this boundary will bring
an increase in clouds later Sunday into Monday. Some light
precipitation may develop Sunday night into Monday across southern
Missouri. Progged thermal profiles suggest that light freezing
rain would be possible late Sunday night into early Monday
morning. However any precipitation will be very light.

A more substantial chance of precipitation in the form of rain will
develop during the middle and later part of next week as an upper
trough approaches from the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: The southwest edge of a large area of
mvfr ceilings is affecting the taf sites and based on trends will
keep mvfr ceilings at all sites early in the taf period through
15z. Northwest winds will diminish over the next few hours as a
ridge of high pressure moves east into the area.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 270538
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1138 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A vigorous shortwave trough was sliding southeast across Missouri
this afternoon. This system brought a relatively brief period of
light snow this morning. Scattered light rain/snow showers and
sprinkles/flurries had developed this afternoon underneath the
upper level cold core.

Clouds along with the scattered light precipitation will persist
into the late afternoon and perhaps early evening hours primarily
across the eastern Ozarks.

Surface high pressure will build into the Ozarks Thanksgiving day
providing tranquil and chilly weather conditions. Under plenty of
sunshine high temperatures will be 10-15 degrees below normal.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

The upper pattern will become more zonal as we head into Friday
and Saturday while southerly winds return. This will result in a
substantial warming trend with highs climbing into the 60s by
Sunday.

A dry cold front will sag southward across the region Sunday while
the main belt of westerlies remains to our north. This front will
stall just to our south across Arkansas Sunday night into Monday.
Moisture and warm air advection over top this boundary will bring
an increase in clouds later Sunday into Monday. Some light
precipitation may develop Sunday night into Monday across southern
Missouri. Progged thermal profiles suggest that light freezing
rain would be possible late Sunday night into early Monday
morning. However any precipitation will be very light.

A more substantial chance of precipitation in the form of rain will
develop during the middle and later part of next week as an upper
trough approaches from the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: The southwest edge of a large area of
mvfr ceilings is affecting the taf sites and based on trends will
keep mvfr ceilings at all sites early in the taf period through
15z. Northwest winds will diminish over the next few hours as a
ridge of high pressure moves east into the area.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 270538
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1138 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A vigorous shortwave trough was sliding southeast across Missouri
this afternoon. This system brought a relatively brief period of
light snow this morning. Scattered light rain/snow showers and
sprinkles/flurries had developed this afternoon underneath the
upper level cold core.

Clouds along with the scattered light precipitation will persist
into the late afternoon and perhaps early evening hours primarily
across the eastern Ozarks.

Surface high pressure will build into the Ozarks Thanksgiving day
providing tranquil and chilly weather conditions. Under plenty of
sunshine high temperatures will be 10-15 degrees below normal.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

The upper pattern will become more zonal as we head into Friday
and Saturday while southerly winds return. This will result in a
substantial warming trend with highs climbing into the 60s by
Sunday.

A dry cold front will sag southward across the region Sunday while
the main belt of westerlies remains to our north. This front will
stall just to our south across Arkansas Sunday night into Monday.
Moisture and warm air advection over top this boundary will bring
an increase in clouds later Sunday into Monday. Some light
precipitation may develop Sunday night into Monday across southern
Missouri. Progged thermal profiles suggest that light freezing
rain would be possible late Sunday night into early Monday
morning. However any precipitation will be very light.

A more substantial chance of precipitation in the form of rain will
develop during the middle and later part of next week as an upper
trough approaches from the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: The southwest edge of a large area of
mvfr ceilings is affecting the taf sites and based on trends will
keep mvfr ceilings at all sites early in the taf period through
15z. Northwest winds will diminish over the next few hours as a
ridge of high pressure moves east into the area.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 270538
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1138 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A vigorous shortwave trough was sliding southeast across Missouri
this afternoon. This system brought a relatively brief period of
light snow this morning. Scattered light rain/snow showers and
sprinkles/flurries had developed this afternoon underneath the
upper level cold core.

Clouds along with the scattered light precipitation will persist
into the late afternoon and perhaps early evening hours primarily
across the eastern Ozarks.

Surface high pressure will build into the Ozarks Thanksgiving day
providing tranquil and chilly weather conditions. Under plenty of
sunshine high temperatures will be 10-15 degrees below normal.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

The upper pattern will become more zonal as we head into Friday
and Saturday while southerly winds return. This will result in a
substantial warming trend with highs climbing into the 60s by
Sunday.

A dry cold front will sag southward across the region Sunday while
the main belt of westerlies remains to our north. This front will
stall just to our south across Arkansas Sunday night into Monday.
Moisture and warm air advection over top this boundary will bring
an increase in clouds later Sunday into Monday. Some light
precipitation may develop Sunday night into Monday across southern
Missouri. Progged thermal profiles suggest that light freezing
rain would be possible late Sunday night into early Monday
morning. However any precipitation will be very light.

A more substantial chance of precipitation in the form of rain will
develop during the middle and later part of next week as an upper
trough approaches from the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: The southwest edge of a large area of
mvfr ceilings is affecting the taf sites and based on trends will
keep mvfr ceilings at all sites early in the taf period through
15z. Northwest winds will diminish over the next few hours as a
ridge of high pressure moves east into the area.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KEAX 270516
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1116 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A strong clipper system is tracking through the region with most of
the forecast area entering the backside of the trough. The low-level
circulation associated with the upper shortwave has remained nearly
stationary and has only drifted slightly southward throughout the
day, with snow occurring across Iowa. As this area begins to move
southeast through the evening/overnight light snow may spread back
into northern/northeastern Missouri. But there should also be a
general weakening trend as the support from the upper trough
moves away. So for now, will keep a mention for a chance of snow
through about midnight in our far northeastern counties. With the
intensity weakening, not thinking that any additional snow amounts
will occur.

After this system moves out, the weather trends to being quiet for
the weekend with a substantial warmup expected for Friday and
Saturday. Winds will become southerly/southwesterly Friday, with
strong warm advection aloft. This trend will persist into Saturday
and as a result highs should be able to climb into the 50s on Friday
and the lower 60s on Saturday. To add some perspective on this
warmup, the normal high temperature for Friday and Saturday is 47
and 46 respectively. So we will be looking a temperatures at least
15 degrees above normal to start the weekend. Sunday is a little
trickier. Models are in good agreement moving a strong cold front
through the area sometime during the day. But there is a fair amount
of difference with the timing and this will have a huge impact on
temperatures given the strong cold advection behind the front and
the warm air in place ahead the front. By midday, all the models
have the front through far northwestern Missouri, so confidence is
fairly high that temperatures in that portion of the forecast area
will be in the 30s. But the rest of the forecast area is quite
variable with the GFS faster than both the ECMWF and the GEM. If the
front is slower like the ECMWF and the GEM depict, portions of the
forecast area could see the mid to upper 60s. If the GFS verifies,
then highs would be set early in the day with temperatures steady or
falling through the afternoon. Regardless, models have continued to
trend drier and now it looks like it should be a dry frontal passage.

This colder air should be relatively short-lived as the cold high
pressure center moves over the Great Lakes region. By early Tuesday,
as the high continues to shift east, winds in the local area will
turn to the south and a decent recovery is expected for Tuesday
afternoon with highs getting close to normal levels. From there,
models begin to diverge significantly with the ECMWF and the GFS
nearly out of phase in a relatively flattened upper-level pattern.
In the lower levels, the ECMWF moves a cool surface high pressure
over the region, whereas the GFS stretches a baroclinic zone across
the area with a surface front draped over northern Missouri. The end
result is at least a 25 degree difference in the surface
temperatures between the two models and a very low confidence
forecast for Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1116 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Expansive MVFR deck is evident on satellite imagery across all of
Missouri...eastern Kansas and southeastern Nebraska. These cigs will
move little thru mid-morning and affect the terminals thru 15Z with a
cloud deck btn 1-2kft. Cigs will finally sct out around 15Z as drier
air associated with surface high pressure builds into the region.
Expect sct-bkn mid-lvl clouds from late morning into the early
afternoon before giving way to sct high clouds. Northwest winds
btn 10-15kts at TAF issuance will subside overnight and become lgt
and vrb this morning. Winds will then pick up again from the SE
around 5-10kts during the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 270516
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1116 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A strong clipper system is tracking through the region with most of
the forecast area entering the backside of the trough. The low-level
circulation associated with the upper shortwave has remained nearly
stationary and has only drifted slightly southward throughout the
day, with snow occurring across Iowa. As this area begins to move
southeast through the evening/overnight light snow may spread back
into northern/northeastern Missouri. But there should also be a
general weakening trend as the support from the upper trough
moves away. So for now, will keep a mention for a chance of snow
through about midnight in our far northeastern counties. With the
intensity weakening, not thinking that any additional snow amounts
will occur.

After this system moves out, the weather trends to being quiet for
the weekend with a substantial warmup expected for Friday and
Saturday. Winds will become southerly/southwesterly Friday, with
strong warm advection aloft. This trend will persist into Saturday
and as a result highs should be able to climb into the 50s on Friday
and the lower 60s on Saturday. To add some perspective on this
warmup, the normal high temperature for Friday and Saturday is 47
and 46 respectively. So we will be looking a temperatures at least
15 degrees above normal to start the weekend. Sunday is a little
trickier. Models are in good agreement moving a strong cold front
through the area sometime during the day. But there is a fair amount
of difference with the timing and this will have a huge impact on
temperatures given the strong cold advection behind the front and
the warm air in place ahead the front. By midday, all the models
have the front through far northwestern Missouri, so confidence is
fairly high that temperatures in that portion of the forecast area
will be in the 30s. But the rest of the forecast area is quite
variable with the GFS faster than both the ECMWF and the GEM. If the
front is slower like the ECMWF and the GEM depict, portions of the
forecast area could see the mid to upper 60s. If the GFS verifies,
then highs would be set early in the day with temperatures steady or
falling through the afternoon. Regardless, models have continued to
trend drier and now it looks like it should be a dry frontal passage.

This colder air should be relatively short-lived as the cold high
pressure center moves over the Great Lakes region. By early Tuesday,
as the high continues to shift east, winds in the local area will
turn to the south and a decent recovery is expected for Tuesday
afternoon with highs getting close to normal levels. From there,
models begin to diverge significantly with the ECMWF and the GFS
nearly out of phase in a relatively flattened upper-level pattern.
In the lower levels, the ECMWF moves a cool surface high pressure
over the region, whereas the GFS stretches a baroclinic zone across
the area with a surface front draped over northern Missouri. The end
result is at least a 25 degree difference in the surface
temperatures between the two models and a very low confidence
forecast for Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1116 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Expansive MVFR deck is evident on satellite imagery across all of
Missouri...eastern Kansas and southeastern Nebraska. These cigs will
move little thru mid-morning and affect the terminals thru 15Z with a
cloud deck btn 1-2kft. Cigs will finally sct out around 15Z as drier
air associated with surface high pressure builds into the region.
Expect sct-bkn mid-lvl clouds from late morning into the early
afternoon before giving way to sct high clouds. Northwest winds
btn 10-15kts at TAF issuance will subside overnight and become lgt
and vrb this morning. Winds will then pick up again from the SE
around 5-10kts during the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 270516
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1116 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A strong clipper system is tracking through the region with most of
the forecast area entering the backside of the trough. The low-level
circulation associated with the upper shortwave has remained nearly
stationary and has only drifted slightly southward throughout the
day, with snow occurring across Iowa. As this area begins to move
southeast through the evening/overnight light snow may spread back
into northern/northeastern Missouri. But there should also be a
general weakening trend as the support from the upper trough
moves away. So for now, will keep a mention for a chance of snow
through about midnight in our far northeastern counties. With the
intensity weakening, not thinking that any additional snow amounts
will occur.

After this system moves out, the weather trends to being quiet for
the weekend with a substantial warmup expected for Friday and
Saturday. Winds will become southerly/southwesterly Friday, with
strong warm advection aloft. This trend will persist into Saturday
and as a result highs should be able to climb into the 50s on Friday
and the lower 60s on Saturday. To add some perspective on this
warmup, the normal high temperature for Friday and Saturday is 47
and 46 respectively. So we will be looking a temperatures at least
15 degrees above normal to start the weekend. Sunday is a little
trickier. Models are in good agreement moving a strong cold front
through the area sometime during the day. But there is a fair amount
of difference with the timing and this will have a huge impact on
temperatures given the strong cold advection behind the front and
the warm air in place ahead the front. By midday, all the models
have the front through far northwestern Missouri, so confidence is
fairly high that temperatures in that portion of the forecast area
will be in the 30s. But the rest of the forecast area is quite
variable with the GFS faster than both the ECMWF and the GEM. If the
front is slower like the ECMWF and the GEM depict, portions of the
forecast area could see the mid to upper 60s. If the GFS verifies,
then highs would be set early in the day with temperatures steady or
falling through the afternoon. Regardless, models have continued to
trend drier and now it looks like it should be a dry frontal passage.

This colder air should be relatively short-lived as the cold high
pressure center moves over the Great Lakes region. By early Tuesday,
as the high continues to shift east, winds in the local area will
turn to the south and a decent recovery is expected for Tuesday
afternoon with highs getting close to normal levels. From there,
models begin to diverge significantly with the ECMWF and the GFS
nearly out of phase in a relatively flattened upper-level pattern.
In the lower levels, the ECMWF moves a cool surface high pressure
over the region, whereas the GFS stretches a baroclinic zone across
the area with a surface front draped over northern Missouri. The end
result is at least a 25 degree difference in the surface
temperatures between the two models and a very low confidence
forecast for Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1116 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Expansive MVFR deck is evident on satellite imagery across all of
Missouri...eastern Kansas and southeastern Nebraska. These cigs will
move little thru mid-morning and affect the terminals thru 15Z with a
cloud deck btn 1-2kft. Cigs will finally sct out around 15Z as drier
air associated with surface high pressure builds into the region.
Expect sct-bkn mid-lvl clouds from late morning into the early
afternoon before giving way to sct high clouds. Northwest winds
btn 10-15kts at TAF issuance will subside overnight and become lgt
and vrb this morning. Winds will then pick up again from the SE
around 5-10kts during the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 270516
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1116 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A strong clipper system is tracking through the region with most of
the forecast area entering the backside of the trough. The low-level
circulation associated with the upper shortwave has remained nearly
stationary and has only drifted slightly southward throughout the
day, with snow occurring across Iowa. As this area begins to move
southeast through the evening/overnight light snow may spread back
into northern/northeastern Missouri. But there should also be a
general weakening trend as the support from the upper trough
moves away. So for now, will keep a mention for a chance of snow
through about midnight in our far northeastern counties. With the
intensity weakening, not thinking that any additional snow amounts
will occur.

After this system moves out, the weather trends to being quiet for
the weekend with a substantial warmup expected for Friday and
Saturday. Winds will become southerly/southwesterly Friday, with
strong warm advection aloft. This trend will persist into Saturday
and as a result highs should be able to climb into the 50s on Friday
and the lower 60s on Saturday. To add some perspective on this
warmup, the normal high temperature for Friday and Saturday is 47
and 46 respectively. So we will be looking a temperatures at least
15 degrees above normal to start the weekend. Sunday is a little
trickier. Models are in good agreement moving a strong cold front
through the area sometime during the day. But there is a fair amount
of difference with the timing and this will have a huge impact on
temperatures given the strong cold advection behind the front and
the warm air in place ahead the front. By midday, all the models
have the front through far northwestern Missouri, so confidence is
fairly high that temperatures in that portion of the forecast area
will be in the 30s. But the rest of the forecast area is quite
variable with the GFS faster than both the ECMWF and the GEM. If the
front is slower like the ECMWF and the GEM depict, portions of the
forecast area could see the mid to upper 60s. If the GFS verifies,
then highs would be set early in the day with temperatures steady or
falling through the afternoon. Regardless, models have continued to
trend drier and now it looks like it should be a dry frontal passage.

This colder air should be relatively short-lived as the cold high
pressure center moves over the Great Lakes region. By early Tuesday,
as the high continues to shift east, winds in the local area will
turn to the south and a decent recovery is expected for Tuesday
afternoon with highs getting close to normal levels. From there,
models begin to diverge significantly with the ECMWF and the GFS
nearly out of phase in a relatively flattened upper-level pattern.
In the lower levels, the ECMWF moves a cool surface high pressure
over the region, whereas the GFS stretches a baroclinic zone across
the area with a surface front draped over northern Missouri. The end
result is at least a 25 degree difference in the surface
temperatures between the two models and a very low confidence
forecast for Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1116 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Expansive MVFR deck is evident on satellite imagery across all of
Missouri...eastern Kansas and southeastern Nebraska. These cigs will
move little thru mid-morning and affect the terminals thru 15Z with a
cloud deck btn 1-2kft. Cigs will finally sct out around 15Z as drier
air associated with surface high pressure builds into the region.
Expect sct-bkn mid-lvl clouds from late morning into the early
afternoon before giving way to sct high clouds. Northwest winds
btn 10-15kts at TAF issuance will subside overnight and become lgt
and vrb this morning. Winds will then pick up again from the SE
around 5-10kts during the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KLSX 270257
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
857 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 836 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Light snow continues to fall across much of the forecast area
this evening associated with a northwest flow shortwave and an
associated weak surface low now near STL. Most of the
precipitation was in the form of light snow, although there was
also light rain across portions of central and southeast MO ahead
of a cold front which extended from just east of COU southwest to
just east of SGF where there was a wedge of warmer air southwest
of the surface low and an occluded front. There was also patchy
drizzle or freezing drizzle where the lift was weak and the low
level cloud cover quite shallow. Only minor additional snow
accumulations of under one inch are expected tonight with much of
the area receiving a total of around one inch of snow depth with
isolated spots up to 2 inches. There should just be some lingering
flurries late tonight. As temperatures cool well below freezing
late tonight there may be some slick icy spots on untreated
roads, sidewalks, driveways and parking lots where melted snow
refreezes.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 351 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Clipper system continues to impact our forecast area at this time.

At 21z...a low pressure center was located in northeast MO and
was moving slowly to the southeast. A warm front extended to the
south-southeast of this low pressure area into east-central MO--just
west of the STL metro area--where temps have risen into the upper
30s and low 40s. The cold front associated with this system is
gaining on the warm front and was now located from this low pressure
area and to the south into central MO. Temps ahead/east of the warm
front have remained in the low-mid 30s. An area of precipitation
extended in a band on the IL side of the river mostly. Nearly all of
this precipitation was snow. Drizzle has developed on the backside
of this main band and into the vicinity of what is beginning to be
an occluded front, as the cold front catches the warm.

The low pressure in northeast MO is occluding with all anticipation
that a new triple point will develop over TN this evening. In the
meantime, the front over our region will become occluded as well and
simply a wind shift line and focus for drizzle.

Temps near the MS river and IL will stall this evening and then
slowly fall, while a more normal diurnal trend will be seen for
central MO and southeast MO.  Min temps tonight will strongly favor
the higher MET MOS values with low clouds expected to stick around
all night.

The precipitation band is expected to soon stall over in IL and
gradually weaken this evening as the new focus shifts well to the
southeast for the overnight.  Leftover diurnally generated scattered
showers...mostly snow by this point...will wander into the areas
where the main pcpn band has vacated along with patchy drizzle
associated with the occluded front moving thru. Temps may be cold
enough for some FZDZ to result as well.

Additional snow accums will be minimal...with up to an inch extra in
southwest IL.  Icing potential will need to be watched carefully
with models and radar not picking up on this too well yet but
scenario does favor drizzle thru the evening.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 351 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Ridge of high pressure to move into the region on Thanksgiving with
colder temperatures. Clouds will be slow to clear out so temps to
only rise into the mid 20s to around 40.

Another cold night Thursday night with lows in the 20s. Then surface
ridge moves to the east allowing southerly winds to return and
become gusty on Friday. So highs will be near normal in the mid 40s
to mid 50s.

Warmer weather to persist through the weekend with highs in the mid
50s to mid 60s on Saturday and lows Saturday night in the low 40s to
low 50s. Models still bring a cold front into region during the day
on Sunday. High temp forecast to be tricky depending on timing of
this frontal boundary. For now have highs in the upper 40s far north
to the mid 60s far south. Otherwise, low level moisture will be on
the increase ahead of this front so could see some rain across
southern half of forecast area Sunday through Monday with it mixing
with or changing over to snow at times. Lows Sunday night will be in
the upper teens to mid 30s. Highs on Monday will be in the low 30s
to low 40s.

Weak surface ridge to build in Monday night and Tuesday. So will see
dry conditions with lows Monday night in the low 20s to low 30s and
highs on Tuesday in the 40s.

Beyond that extended models have differing solutions with ECMWF a
bit faster with next frontal passage and drier vs. GFS which is
slower and much wetter solution. For now went with a blend, have
slight chance pops Tuesday night and chance pops on Wednesday.
Temperatures to be near freezing Tuesday night in northern portions
of forecast area so could see a mix of rain and snow. Otherwise,
rain possible for mid week next week.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 531 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Surface low located midway between KCOU and KSTL at 23z will move
southeastward tonight into the TN Valley region. Its initial
passage to the east this evening will actually bring warmer air
briefly into the St. Louis region for a short period early this
evening before increasing northwest winds bring in more colder
air. What this means for the St. Louis area terminals is that they
could see rain, snow, and a mix this evening. Flight conditions
will remain IFR tonight where they currently exist at KUIN and
KSTL/KSUS/KCPS, while they should lower to IFR at UIN. Sometime
during the period from late tonight into mid Thursday morning
there should be improvement to MVFR, and to VFR from late morning
into the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

IFR flight conditions will persist through early Thursday morning
with imrovement to MVFR after 12z, and to VFR around midday. A mix
of precipitation types are expected this evening which could be
all rain, all snow, or a mix of rain/snow.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 270257
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
857 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 836 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Light snow continues to fall across much of the forecast area
this evening associated with a northwest flow shortwave and an
associated weak surface low now near STL. Most of the
precipitation was in the form of light snow, although there was
also light rain across portions of central and southeast MO ahead
of a cold front which extended from just east of COU southwest to
just east of SGF where there was a wedge of warmer air southwest
of the surface low and an occluded front. There was also patchy
drizzle or freezing drizzle where the lift was weak and the low
level cloud cover quite shallow. Only minor additional snow
accumulations of under one inch are expected tonight with much of
the area receiving a total of around one inch of snow depth with
isolated spots up to 2 inches. There should just be some lingering
flurries late tonight. As temperatures cool well below freezing
late tonight there may be some slick icy spots on untreated
roads, sidewalks, driveways and parking lots where melted snow
refreezes.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 351 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Clipper system continues to impact our forecast area at this time.

At 21z...a low pressure center was located in northeast MO and
was moving slowly to the southeast. A warm front extended to the
south-southeast of this low pressure area into east-central MO--just
west of the STL metro area--where temps have risen into the upper
30s and low 40s. The cold front associated with this system is
gaining on the warm front and was now located from this low pressure
area and to the south into central MO. Temps ahead/east of the warm
front have remained in the low-mid 30s. An area of precipitation
extended in a band on the IL side of the river mostly. Nearly all of
this precipitation was snow. Drizzle has developed on the backside
of this main band and into the vicinity of what is beginning to be
an occluded front, as the cold front catches the warm.

The low pressure in northeast MO is occluding with all anticipation
that a new triple point will develop over TN this evening. In the
meantime, the front over our region will become occluded as well and
simply a wind shift line and focus for drizzle.

Temps near the MS river and IL will stall this evening and then
slowly fall, while a more normal diurnal trend will be seen for
central MO and southeast MO.  Min temps tonight will strongly favor
the higher MET MOS values with low clouds expected to stick around
all night.

The precipitation band is expected to soon stall over in IL and
gradually weaken this evening as the new focus shifts well to the
southeast for the overnight.  Leftover diurnally generated scattered
showers...mostly snow by this point...will wander into the areas
where the main pcpn band has vacated along with patchy drizzle
associated with the occluded front moving thru. Temps may be cold
enough for some FZDZ to result as well.

Additional snow accums will be minimal...with up to an inch extra in
southwest IL.  Icing potential will need to be watched carefully
with models and radar not picking up on this too well yet but
scenario does favor drizzle thru the evening.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 351 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Ridge of high pressure to move into the region on Thanksgiving with
colder temperatures. Clouds will be slow to clear out so temps to
only rise into the mid 20s to around 40.

Another cold night Thursday night with lows in the 20s. Then surface
ridge moves to the east allowing southerly winds to return and
become gusty on Friday. So highs will be near normal in the mid 40s
to mid 50s.

Warmer weather to persist through the weekend with highs in the mid
50s to mid 60s on Saturday and lows Saturday night in the low 40s to
low 50s. Models still bring a cold front into region during the day
on Sunday. High temp forecast to be tricky depending on timing of
this frontal boundary. For now have highs in the upper 40s far north
to the mid 60s far south. Otherwise, low level moisture will be on
the increase ahead of this front so could see some rain across
southern half of forecast area Sunday through Monday with it mixing
with or changing over to snow at times. Lows Sunday night will be in
the upper teens to mid 30s. Highs on Monday will be in the low 30s
to low 40s.

Weak surface ridge to build in Monday night and Tuesday. So will see
dry conditions with lows Monday night in the low 20s to low 30s and
highs on Tuesday in the 40s.

Beyond that extended models have differing solutions with ECMWF a
bit faster with next frontal passage and drier vs. GFS which is
slower and much wetter solution. For now went with a blend, have
slight chance pops Tuesday night and chance pops on Wednesday.
Temperatures to be near freezing Tuesday night in northern portions
of forecast area so could see a mix of rain and snow. Otherwise,
rain possible for mid week next week.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 531 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Surface low located midway between KCOU and KSTL at 23z will move
southeastward tonight into the TN Valley region. Its initial
passage to the east this evening will actually bring warmer air
briefly into the St. Louis region for a short period early this
evening before increasing northwest winds bring in more colder
air. What this means for the St. Louis area terminals is that they
could see rain, snow, and a mix this evening. Flight conditions
will remain IFR tonight where they currently exist at KUIN and
KSTL/KSUS/KCPS, while they should lower to IFR at UIN. Sometime
during the period from late tonight into mid Thursday morning
there should be improvement to MVFR, and to VFR from late morning
into the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

IFR flight conditions will persist through early Thursday morning
with imrovement to MVFR after 12z, and to VFR around midday. A mix
of precipitation types are expected this evening which could be
all rain, all snow, or a mix of rain/snow.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 270257
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
857 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 836 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Light snow continues to fall across much of the forecast area
this evening associated with a northwest flow shortwave and an
associated weak surface low now near STL. Most of the
precipitation was in the form of light snow, although there was
also light rain across portions of central and southeast MO ahead
of a cold front which extended from just east of COU southwest to
just east of SGF where there was a wedge of warmer air southwest
of the surface low and an occluded front. There was also patchy
drizzle or freezing drizzle where the lift was weak and the low
level cloud cover quite shallow. Only minor additional snow
accumulations of under one inch are expected tonight with much of
the area receiving a total of around one inch of snow depth with
isolated spots up to 2 inches. There should just be some lingering
flurries late tonight. As temperatures cool well below freezing
late tonight there may be some slick icy spots on untreated
roads, sidewalks, driveways and parking lots where melted snow
refreezes.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 351 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Clipper system continues to impact our forecast area at this time.

At 21z...a low pressure center was located in northeast MO and
was moving slowly to the southeast. A warm front extended to the
south-southeast of this low pressure area into east-central MO--just
west of the STL metro area--where temps have risen into the upper
30s and low 40s. The cold front associated with this system is
gaining on the warm front and was now located from this low pressure
area and to the south into central MO. Temps ahead/east of the warm
front have remained in the low-mid 30s. An area of precipitation
extended in a band on the IL side of the river mostly. Nearly all of
this precipitation was snow. Drizzle has developed on the backside
of this main band and into the vicinity of what is beginning to be
an occluded front, as the cold front catches the warm.

The low pressure in northeast MO is occluding with all anticipation
that a new triple point will develop over TN this evening. In the
meantime, the front over our region will become occluded as well and
simply a wind shift line and focus for drizzle.

Temps near the MS river and IL will stall this evening and then
slowly fall, while a more normal diurnal trend will be seen for
central MO and southeast MO.  Min temps tonight will strongly favor
the higher MET MOS values with low clouds expected to stick around
all night.

The precipitation band is expected to soon stall over in IL and
gradually weaken this evening as the new focus shifts well to the
southeast for the overnight.  Leftover diurnally generated scattered
showers...mostly snow by this point...will wander into the areas
where the main pcpn band has vacated along with patchy drizzle
associated with the occluded front moving thru. Temps may be cold
enough for some FZDZ to result as well.

Additional snow accums will be minimal...with up to an inch extra in
southwest IL.  Icing potential will need to be watched carefully
with models and radar not picking up on this too well yet but
scenario does favor drizzle thru the evening.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 351 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Ridge of high pressure to move into the region on Thanksgiving with
colder temperatures. Clouds will be slow to clear out so temps to
only rise into the mid 20s to around 40.

Another cold night Thursday night with lows in the 20s. Then surface
ridge moves to the east allowing southerly winds to return and
become gusty on Friday. So highs will be near normal in the mid 40s
to mid 50s.

Warmer weather to persist through the weekend with highs in the mid
50s to mid 60s on Saturday and lows Saturday night in the low 40s to
low 50s. Models still bring a cold front into region during the day
on Sunday. High temp forecast to be tricky depending on timing of
this frontal boundary. For now have highs in the upper 40s far north
to the mid 60s far south. Otherwise, low level moisture will be on
the increase ahead of this front so could see some rain across
southern half of forecast area Sunday through Monday with it mixing
with or changing over to snow at times. Lows Sunday night will be in
the upper teens to mid 30s. Highs on Monday will be in the low 30s
to low 40s.

Weak surface ridge to build in Monday night and Tuesday. So will see
dry conditions with lows Monday night in the low 20s to low 30s and
highs on Tuesday in the 40s.

Beyond that extended models have differing solutions with ECMWF a
bit faster with next frontal passage and drier vs. GFS which is
slower and much wetter solution. For now went with a blend, have
slight chance pops Tuesday night and chance pops on Wednesday.
Temperatures to be near freezing Tuesday night in northern portions
of forecast area so could see a mix of rain and snow. Otherwise,
rain possible for mid week next week.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 531 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Surface low located midway between KCOU and KSTL at 23z will move
southeastward tonight into the TN Valley region. Its initial
passage to the east this evening will actually bring warmer air
briefly into the St. Louis region for a short period early this
evening before increasing northwest winds bring in more colder
air. What this means for the St. Louis area terminals is that they
could see rain, snow, and a mix this evening. Flight conditions
will remain IFR tonight where they currently exist at KUIN and
KSTL/KSUS/KCPS, while they should lower to IFR at UIN. Sometime
during the period from late tonight into mid Thursday morning
there should be improvement to MVFR, and to VFR from late morning
into the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

IFR flight conditions will persist through early Thursday morning
with imrovement to MVFR after 12z, and to VFR around midday. A mix
of precipitation types are expected this evening which could be
all rain, all snow, or a mix of rain/snow.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 270257
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
857 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 836 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Light snow continues to fall across much of the forecast area
this evening associated with a northwest flow shortwave and an
associated weak surface low now near STL. Most of the
precipitation was in the form of light snow, although there was
also light rain across portions of central and southeast MO ahead
of a cold front which extended from just east of COU southwest to
just east of SGF where there was a wedge of warmer air southwest
of the surface low and an occluded front. There was also patchy
drizzle or freezing drizzle where the lift was weak and the low
level cloud cover quite shallow. Only minor additional snow
accumulations of under one inch are expected tonight with much of
the area receiving a total of around one inch of snow depth with
isolated spots up to 2 inches. There should just be some lingering
flurries late tonight. As temperatures cool well below freezing
late tonight there may be some slick icy spots on untreated
roads, sidewalks, driveways and parking lots where melted snow
refreezes.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 351 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Clipper system continues to impact our forecast area at this time.

At 21z...a low pressure center was located in northeast MO and
was moving slowly to the southeast. A warm front extended to the
south-southeast of this low pressure area into east-central MO--just
west of the STL metro area--where temps have risen into the upper
30s and low 40s. The cold front associated with this system is
gaining on the warm front and was now located from this low pressure
area and to the south into central MO. Temps ahead/east of the warm
front have remained in the low-mid 30s. An area of precipitation
extended in a band on the IL side of the river mostly. Nearly all of
this precipitation was snow. Drizzle has developed on the backside
of this main band and into the vicinity of what is beginning to be
an occluded front, as the cold front catches the warm.

The low pressure in northeast MO is occluding with all anticipation
that a new triple point will develop over TN this evening. In the
meantime, the front over our region will become occluded as well and
simply a wind shift line and focus for drizzle.

Temps near the MS river and IL will stall this evening and then
slowly fall, while a more normal diurnal trend will be seen for
central MO and southeast MO.  Min temps tonight will strongly favor
the higher MET MOS values with low clouds expected to stick around
all night.

The precipitation band is expected to soon stall over in IL and
gradually weaken this evening as the new focus shifts well to the
southeast for the overnight.  Leftover diurnally generated scattered
showers...mostly snow by this point...will wander into the areas
where the main pcpn band has vacated along with patchy drizzle
associated with the occluded front moving thru. Temps may be cold
enough for some FZDZ to result as well.

Additional snow accums will be minimal...with up to an inch extra in
southwest IL.  Icing potential will need to be watched carefully
with models and radar not picking up on this too well yet but
scenario does favor drizzle thru the evening.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 351 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Ridge of high pressure to move into the region on Thanksgiving with
colder temperatures. Clouds will be slow to clear out so temps to
only rise into the mid 20s to around 40.

Another cold night Thursday night with lows in the 20s. Then surface
ridge moves to the east allowing southerly winds to return and
become gusty on Friday. So highs will be near normal in the mid 40s
to mid 50s.

Warmer weather to persist through the weekend with highs in the mid
50s to mid 60s on Saturday and lows Saturday night in the low 40s to
low 50s. Models still bring a cold front into region during the day
on Sunday. High temp forecast to be tricky depending on timing of
this frontal boundary. For now have highs in the upper 40s far north
to the mid 60s far south. Otherwise, low level moisture will be on
the increase ahead of this front so could see some rain across
southern half of forecast area Sunday through Monday with it mixing
with or changing over to snow at times. Lows Sunday night will be in
the upper teens to mid 30s. Highs on Monday will be in the low 30s
to low 40s.

Weak surface ridge to build in Monday night and Tuesday. So will see
dry conditions with lows Monday night in the low 20s to low 30s and
highs on Tuesday in the 40s.

Beyond that extended models have differing solutions with ECMWF a
bit faster with next frontal passage and drier vs. GFS which is
slower and much wetter solution. For now went with a blend, have
slight chance pops Tuesday night and chance pops on Wednesday.
Temperatures to be near freezing Tuesday night in northern portions
of forecast area so could see a mix of rain and snow. Otherwise,
rain possible for mid week next week.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 531 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Surface low located midway between KCOU and KSTL at 23z will move
southeastward tonight into the TN Valley region. Its initial
passage to the east this evening will actually bring warmer air
briefly into the St. Louis region for a short period early this
evening before increasing northwest winds bring in more colder
air. What this means for the St. Louis area terminals is that they
could see rain, snow, and a mix this evening. Flight conditions
will remain IFR tonight where they currently exist at KUIN and
KSTL/KSUS/KCPS, while they should lower to IFR at UIN. Sometime
during the period from late tonight into mid Thursday morning
there should be improvement to MVFR, and to VFR from late morning
into the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

IFR flight conditions will persist through early Thursday morning
with imrovement to MVFR after 12z, and to VFR around midday. A mix
of precipitation types are expected this evening which could be
all rain, all snow, or a mix of rain/snow.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 262342
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
542 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 351 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Clipper system continues to impact our forecast area at this time.

At 21z...a low pressure center was located in northeast MO and
was moving slowly to the southeast. A warm front extended to the
south-southeast of this low pressure area into east-central MO--just
west of the STL metro area--where temps have risen into the upper
30s and low 40s. The cold front associated with this system is
gaining on the warm front and was now located from this low pressure
area and to the south into central MO. Temps ahead/east of the warm
front have remained in the low-mid 30s. An area of precipitation
extended in a band on the IL side of the river mostly. Nearly all of
this precipitation was snow. Drizzle has developed on the backside
of this main band and into the vicinity of what is beginning to be
an occluded front, as the cold front catches the warm.

The low pressure in northeast MO is occluding with all anticipation
that a new triple point will develop over TN this evening. In the
meantime, the front over our region will become occluded as well and
simply a wind shift line and focus for drizzle.

Temps near the MS river and IL will stall this evening and then
slowly fall, while a more normal diurnal trend will be seen for
central MO and southeast MO.  Min temps tonight will strongly favor
the higher MET MOS values with low clouds expected to stick around
all night.

The precipitation band is expected to soon stall over in IL and
gradually weaken this evening as the new focus shifts well to the
southeast for the overnight.  Leftover diurnally generated scattered
showers...mostly snow by this point...will wander into the areas
where the main pcpn band has vacated along with patchy drizzle
associated with the occluded front moving thru. Temps may be cold
enough for some FZDZ to result as well.

Additional snow accums will be minimal...with up to an inch extra in
southwest IL.  Icing potential will need to be watched carefully
with models and radar not picking up on this too well yet but
scenario does favor drizzle thru the evening.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 351 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Ridge of high pressure to move into the region on Thanksgiving with
colder temperatures. Clouds will be slow to clear out so temps to
only rise into the mid 20s to around 40.

Another cold night Thursday night with lows in the 20s. Then surface
ridge moves to the east allowing southerly winds to return and
become gusty on Friday. So highs will be near normal in the mid 40s
to mid 50s.

Warmer weather to persist through the weekend with highs in the mid
50s to mid 60s on Saturday and lows Saturday night in the low 40s to
low 50s. Models still bring a cold front into region during the day
on Sunday. High temp forecast to be tricky depending on timing of
this frontal boundary. For now have highs in the upper 40s far north
to the mid 60s far south. Otherwise, low level moisture will be on
the increase ahead of this front so could see some rain across
southern half of forecast area Sunday through Monday with it mixing
with or changing over to snow at times. Lows Sunday night will be in
the upper teens to mid 30s. Highs on Monday will be in the low 30s
to low 40s.

Weak surface ridge to build in Monday night and Tuesday. So will see
dry conditions with lows Monday night in the low 20s to low 30s and
highs on Tuesday in the 40s.

Beyond that extended models have differing solutions with ECMWF a
bit faster with next frontal passage and drier vs. GFS which is
slower and much wetter solution. For now went with a blend, have
slight chance pops Tuesday night and chance pops on Wednesday.
Temperatures to be near freezing Tuesday night in northern portions
of forecast area so could see a mix of rain and snow. Otherwise,
rain possible for mid week next week.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 531 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Surface low located midway between KCOU and KSTL at 23z will move
southeastward tonight into the TN Valley region. Its initial
passage to the east this evening will actually bring warmer air
briefly into the St. Louis region for a short period early this
evening before increasing northwest winds bring in more colder
air. What this means for the St. Louis area terminals is that they
could see rain, snow, and a mix this evening. Flight conditions
will remain IFR tonight where they currently exist at KUIN and
KSTL/KSUS/KCPS, while they should lower to IFR at UIN. Sometime
during the period from late tonight into mid Thursday morning
there should be improvement to MVFR, and to VFR from late morning
into the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

IFR flight conditions will persist through early Thursday morning
with imrovement to MVFR after 12z, and to VFR around midday. A mix
of precipitation types are expected this evening which could be
all rain, all snow, or a mix of rain/snow.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 262342
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
542 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 351 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Clipper system continues to impact our forecast area at this time.

At 21z...a low pressure center was located in northeast MO and
was moving slowly to the southeast. A warm front extended to the
south-southeast of this low pressure area into east-central MO--just
west of the STL metro area--where temps have risen into the upper
30s and low 40s. The cold front associated with this system is
gaining on the warm front and was now located from this low pressure
area and to the south into central MO. Temps ahead/east of the warm
front have remained in the low-mid 30s. An area of precipitation
extended in a band on the IL side of the river mostly. Nearly all of
this precipitation was snow. Drizzle has developed on the backside
of this main band and into the vicinity of what is beginning to be
an occluded front, as the cold front catches the warm.

The low pressure in northeast MO is occluding with all anticipation
that a new triple point will develop over TN this evening. In the
meantime, the front over our region will become occluded as well and
simply a wind shift line and focus for drizzle.

Temps near the MS river and IL will stall this evening and then
slowly fall, while a more normal diurnal trend will be seen for
central MO and southeast MO.  Min temps tonight will strongly favor
the higher MET MOS values with low clouds expected to stick around
all night.

The precipitation band is expected to soon stall over in IL and
gradually weaken this evening as the new focus shifts well to the
southeast for the overnight.  Leftover diurnally generated scattered
showers...mostly snow by this point...will wander into the areas
where the main pcpn band has vacated along with patchy drizzle
associated with the occluded front moving thru. Temps may be cold
enough for some FZDZ to result as well.

Additional snow accums will be minimal...with up to an inch extra in
southwest IL.  Icing potential will need to be watched carefully
with models and radar not picking up on this too well yet but
scenario does favor drizzle thru the evening.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 351 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Ridge of high pressure to move into the region on Thanksgiving with
colder temperatures. Clouds will be slow to clear out so temps to
only rise into the mid 20s to around 40.

Another cold night Thursday night with lows in the 20s. Then surface
ridge moves to the east allowing southerly winds to return and
become gusty on Friday. So highs will be near normal in the mid 40s
to mid 50s.

Warmer weather to persist through the weekend with highs in the mid
50s to mid 60s on Saturday and lows Saturday night in the low 40s to
low 50s. Models still bring a cold front into region during the day
on Sunday. High temp forecast to be tricky depending on timing of
this frontal boundary. For now have highs in the upper 40s far north
to the mid 60s far south. Otherwise, low level moisture will be on
the increase ahead of this front so could see some rain across
southern half of forecast area Sunday through Monday with it mixing
with or changing over to snow at times. Lows Sunday night will be in
the upper teens to mid 30s. Highs on Monday will be in the low 30s
to low 40s.

Weak surface ridge to build in Monday night and Tuesday. So will see
dry conditions with lows Monday night in the low 20s to low 30s and
highs on Tuesday in the 40s.

Beyond that extended models have differing solutions with ECMWF a
bit faster with next frontal passage and drier vs. GFS which is
slower and much wetter solution. For now went with a blend, have
slight chance pops Tuesday night and chance pops on Wednesday.
Temperatures to be near freezing Tuesday night in northern portions
of forecast area so could see a mix of rain and snow. Otherwise,
rain possible for mid week next week.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 531 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Surface low located midway between KCOU and KSTL at 23z will move
southeastward tonight into the TN Valley region. Its initial
passage to the east this evening will actually bring warmer air
briefly into the St. Louis region for a short period early this
evening before increasing northwest winds bring in more colder
air. What this means for the St. Louis area terminals is that they
could see rain, snow, and a mix this evening. Flight conditions
will remain IFR tonight where they currently exist at KUIN and
KSTL/KSUS/KCPS, while they should lower to IFR at UIN. Sometime
during the period from late tonight into mid Thursday morning
there should be improvement to MVFR, and to VFR from late morning
into the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

IFR flight conditions will persist through early Thursday morning
with imrovement to MVFR after 12z, and to VFR around midday. A mix
of precipitation types are expected this evening which could be
all rain, all snow, or a mix of rain/snow.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 262327
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
527 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A strong clipper system is tracking through the region with most of
the forecast area entering the backside of the trough. The low-level
circulation associated with the upper shortwave has remained nearly
stationary and has only drifted slightly southward throughout the
day, with snow occurring across Iowa. As this area begins to move
southeast through the evening/overnight light snow may spread back
into northern/northeastern Missouri. But there should also be a
general weakening trend as the support from the upper trough
moves away. So for now, will keep a mention for a chance of snow
through about midnight in our far northeastern counties. With the
intensity weakening, not thinking that any additional snow amounts
will occur.

After this system moves out, the weather trends to being quiet for
the weekend with a substantial warmup expected for Friday and
Saturday. Winds will become southerly/southwesterly Friday, with
strong warm advection aloft. This trend will persist into Saturday
and as a result highs should be able to climb into the 50s on Friday
and the lower 60s on Saturday. To add some perspective on this
warmup, the normal high temperature for Friday and Saturday is 47
and 46 respectively. So we will be looking a temperatures at least
15 degrees above normal to start the weekend. Sunday is a little
trickier. Models are in good agreement moving a strong cold front
through the area sometime during the day. But there is a fair amount
of difference with the timing and this will have a huge impact on
temperatures given the strong cold advection behind the front and
the warm air in place ahead the front. By midday, all the models
have the front through far northwestern Missouri, so confidence is
fairly high that temperatures in that portion of the forecast area
will be in the 30s. But the rest of the forecast area is quite
variable with the GFS faster than both the ECMWF and the GEM. If the
front is slower like the ECMWF and the GEM depict, portions of the
forecast area could see the mid to upper 60s. If the GFS verifies,
then highs would be set early in the day with temperatures steady or
falling through the afternoon. Regardless, models have continued to
trend drier and now it looks like it should be a dry frontal passage.

This colder air should be relatively short-lived as the cold high
pressure center moves over the Great Lakes region. By early Tuesday,
as the high continues to shift east, winds in the local area will
turn to the south and a decent recovery is expected for Tuesday
afternoon with highs getting close to normal levels. From there,
models begin to diverge significantly with the ECMWF and the GFS
nearly out of phase in a relatively flattened upper-level pattern.
In the lower levels, the ECMWF moves a cool surface high pressure
over the region, whereas the GFS stretches a baroclinic zone across
the area with a surface front draped over northern Missouri. The end
result is at least a 25 degree difference in the surface
temperatures between the two models and a very low confidence
forecast for Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 527 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Main concern for aviators for the 00Z TAF will be MVFR cigs thru the
first half of the period. Cigs right about 2kft this evening will
sink overnight and remain MVFR thru 11Z-12Z. NAM bufr soundings keep
MVFR cigs at the terminals thru 19Z-20Z tomorrow however that seems
bullish considering the back edge of MVFR cigs is not far to the west
and high pressure will be building into the region tomorrow morning.
Otrw...expect sct-bkn mid-lvl clouds tomorrow morning before giving
way to just sct high clouds tomorow afternoon. Winds will remain out
of the NW around 10kts tonight before dmshg overnight. Winds may even
remain gusty for the first hour of the TAF period so have included a
TEMPO grp to account for that. High pressure will build into the area
tomorrow morning and winds will become lgt and vrb before picking up
from the SE btn 5-10kts tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73






000
FXUS63 KSGF 262307
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
507 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

...00Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A vigorous shortwave trough was sliding southeast across Missouri
this afternoon. This system brought a relatively brief period of
light snow this morning. Scattered light rain/snow showers and
sprinkles/flurries had developed this afternoon underneath the
upper level cold core.

Clouds along with the scattered light precipitation will persist
into the late afternoon and perhaps early evening hours primarily
across the eastern Ozarks.

Surface high pressure will build into the Ozarks Thanksgiving day
providing tranquil and chilly weather conditions. Under plenty of
sunshine high temperatures will be 10-15 degrees below normal.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

The upper pattern will become more zonal as we head into Friday
and Saturday while southerly winds return. This will result in a
substantial warming trend with highs climbing into the 60s by
Sunday.

A dry cold front will sag southward across the region Sunday while
the main belt of westerlies remains to our north. This front will
stall just to our south across Arkansas Sunday night into Monday.
Moisture and warm air advection over top this boundary will bring
an increase in clouds later Sunday into Monday. Some light
precipitation may develop Sunday night into Monday across southern
Missouri. Progged thermal profiles suggest that light freezing
rain would be possible late Sunday night into early Monday
morning. However any precipitation will be very light.

A more substantial chance of precipitation in the form of rain will
develop during the middle and later part of next week as an upper
trough approaches from the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 505 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Breezy northwest winds will gradually subside this evening into
tonight. VFR conditions are expected at all sites, with cloud
cover decreasing through the overnight hours.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Boxell






000
FXUS63 KSGF 262307
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
507 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

...00Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A vigorous shortwave trough was sliding southeast across Missouri
this afternoon. This system brought a relatively brief period of
light snow this morning. Scattered light rain/snow showers and
sprinkles/flurries had developed this afternoon underneath the
upper level cold core.

Clouds along with the scattered light precipitation will persist
into the late afternoon and perhaps early evening hours primarily
across the eastern Ozarks.

Surface high pressure will build into the Ozarks Thanksgiving day
providing tranquil and chilly weather conditions. Under plenty of
sunshine high temperatures will be 10-15 degrees below normal.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

The upper pattern will become more zonal as we head into Friday
and Saturday while southerly winds return. This will result in a
substantial warming trend with highs climbing into the 60s by
Sunday.

A dry cold front will sag southward across the region Sunday while
the main belt of westerlies remains to our north. This front will
stall just to our south across Arkansas Sunday night into Monday.
Moisture and warm air advection over top this boundary will bring
an increase in clouds later Sunday into Monday. Some light
precipitation may develop Sunday night into Monday across southern
Missouri. Progged thermal profiles suggest that light freezing
rain would be possible late Sunday night into early Monday
morning. However any precipitation will be very light.

A more substantial chance of precipitation in the form of rain will
develop during the middle and later part of next week as an upper
trough approaches from the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 505 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Breezy northwest winds will gradually subside this evening into
tonight. VFR conditions are expected at all sites, with cloud
cover decreasing through the overnight hours.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Boxell







000
FXUS63 KLSX 262153
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
353 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 351 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Clipper system continues to impact our forecast area at this time.

At 21z...a low pressure center was located in northeast MO and
was moving slowly to the southeast. A warm front extended to the
south-southeast of this low pressure area into east-central MO--just
west of the STL metro area--where temps have risen into the upper
30s and low 40s. The cold front associated with this system is
gaining on the warm front and was now located from this low pressure
area and to the south into central MO. Temps ahead/east of the warm
front have remained in the low-mid 30s. An area of precipitation
extended in a band on the IL side of the river mostly. Nearly all of
this precipitation was snow. Drizzle has developed on the backside
of this main band and into the vicinity of what is beginning to be
an occluded front, as the cold front catches the warm.

The low pressure in northeast MO is occluding with all anticipation
that a new triple point will develop over TN this evening. In the
meantime, the front over our region will become occluded as well and
simply a wind shift line and focus for drizzle.

Temps near the MS river and IL will stall this evening and then
slowly fall, while a more normal diurnal trend will be seen for
central MO and southeast MO.  Min temps tonight will strongly favor
the higher MET MOS values with low clouds expected to stick around
all night.

The precipitation band is expected to soon stall over in IL and
gradually weaken this evening as the new focus shifts well to the
southeast for the overnight.  Leftover diurnally generated scattered
showers...mostly snow by this point...will wander into the areas
where the main pcpn band has vacated along with patchy drizzle
associated with the occluded front moving thru. Temps may be cold
enough for some FZDZ to result as well.

Additional snow accums will be minimal...with up to an inch extra in
southwest IL.  Icing potential will need to be watched carefully
with models and radar not picking up on this too well yet but
scenario does favor drizzle thru the evening.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 351 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Ridge of high pressure to move into the region on Thanksgiving with
colder temperatures. Clouds will be slow to clear out so temps to
only rise into the mid 20s to around 40.

Another cold night Thursday night with lows in the 20s. Then surface
ridge moves to the east allowing southerly winds to return and
become gusty on Friday. So highs will be near normal in the mid 40s
to mid 50s.

Warmer weather to persist through the weekend with highs in the mid
50s to mid 60s on Saturday and lows Saturday night in the low 40s to
low 50s. Models still bring a cold front into region during the day
on Sunday. High temp forecast to be tricky depending on timing of
this frontal boundary. For now have highs in the upper 40s far north
to the mid 60s far south. Otherwise, low level moisture will be on
the increase ahead of this front so could see some rain across
southern half of forecast area Sunday through Monday with it mixing
with or changing over to snow at times. Lows Sunday night will be in
the upper teens to mid 30s. Highs on Monday will be in the low 30s
to low 40s.

Weak surface ridge to build in Monday night and Tuesday. So will see
dry conditions with lows Monday night in the low 20s to low 30s and
highs on Tuesday in the 40s.

Beyond that extended models have differing solutions with ECMWF a
bit faster with next frontal passage and drier vs. GFS which is
slower and much wetter solution. For now went with a blend, have
slight chance pops Tuesday night and chance pops on Wednesday.
Temperatures to be near freezing Tuesday night in northern portions
of forecast area so could see a mix of rain and snow. Otherwise,
rain possible for mid week next week.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Low CIGs will prevail with the onset of the pcpn for MS river
sites and continue for COU for much of the valid TAF period given
expected flow at cloud level and where the low clouds are now and
how it will develop with this system. This will translate to IFR
and low-end MVFR CIGs. May need to expand IFR CIGs over a larger
area based on trends heading into early this evening. These clouds
should then break up during Thursday (Thanksgiving) morning. Wind
trends were updated with expected positions of the front with
FROPA around 00z but wind speeds not expected to pick up much near
the MS river until later tonight due to frontal proximity.

Specifics for KSTL: Currently have MVFR CIGs and these should at
least continue into Thursday morning. IFR a possibility later
tonight and will bear watching but prefer to see things develop to
our NW first before committing. Warm front FROPA around 00z, which
at that time will be close to when the cold front catches up
anyway, where winds shift from S to W. Otherwise, heaviest snow
during the early-mid afternoon with more scattered SHSN late
afternoon and evening.

TES
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 262153
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
353 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 351 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Clipper system continues to impact our forecast area at this time.

At 21z...a low pressure center was located in northeast MO and
was moving slowly to the southeast. A warm front extended to the
south-southeast of this low pressure area into east-central MO--just
west of the STL metro area--where temps have risen into the upper
30s and low 40s. The cold front associated with this system is
gaining on the warm front and was now located from this low pressure
area and to the south into central MO. Temps ahead/east of the warm
front have remained in the low-mid 30s. An area of precipitation
extended in a band on the IL side of the river mostly. Nearly all of
this precipitation was snow. Drizzle has developed on the backside
of this main band and into the vicinity of what is beginning to be
an occluded front, as the cold front catches the warm.

The low pressure in northeast MO is occluding with all anticipation
that a new triple point will develop over TN this evening. In the
meantime, the front over our region will become occluded as well and
simply a wind shift line and focus for drizzle.

Temps near the MS river and IL will stall this evening and then
slowly fall, while a more normal diurnal trend will be seen for
central MO and southeast MO.  Min temps tonight will strongly favor
the higher MET MOS values with low clouds expected to stick around
all night.

The precipitation band is expected to soon stall over in IL and
gradually weaken this evening as the new focus shifts well to the
southeast for the overnight.  Leftover diurnally generated scattered
showers...mostly snow by this point...will wander into the areas
where the main pcpn band has vacated along with patchy drizzle
associated with the occluded front moving thru. Temps may be cold
enough for some FZDZ to result as well.

Additional snow accums will be minimal...with up to an inch extra in
southwest IL.  Icing potential will need to be watched carefully
with models and radar not picking up on this too well yet but
scenario does favor drizzle thru the evening.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 351 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Ridge of high pressure to move into the region on Thanksgiving with
colder temperatures. Clouds will be slow to clear out so temps to
only rise into the mid 20s to around 40.

Another cold night Thursday night with lows in the 20s. Then surface
ridge moves to the east allowing southerly winds to return and
become gusty on Friday. So highs will be near normal in the mid 40s
to mid 50s.

Warmer weather to persist through the weekend with highs in the mid
50s to mid 60s on Saturday and lows Saturday night in the low 40s to
low 50s. Models still bring a cold front into region during the day
on Sunday. High temp forecast to be tricky depending on timing of
this frontal boundary. For now have highs in the upper 40s far north
to the mid 60s far south. Otherwise, low level moisture will be on
the increase ahead of this front so could see some rain across
southern half of forecast area Sunday through Monday with it mixing
with or changing over to snow at times. Lows Sunday night will be in
the upper teens to mid 30s. Highs on Monday will be in the low 30s
to low 40s.

Weak surface ridge to build in Monday night and Tuesday. So will see
dry conditions with lows Monday night in the low 20s to low 30s and
highs on Tuesday in the 40s.

Beyond that extended models have differing solutions with ECMWF a
bit faster with next frontal passage and drier vs. GFS which is
slower and much wetter solution. For now went with a blend, have
slight chance pops Tuesday night and chance pops on Wednesday.
Temperatures to be near freezing Tuesday night in northern portions
of forecast area so could see a mix of rain and snow. Otherwise,
rain possible for mid week next week.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Low CIGs will prevail with the onset of the pcpn for MS river
sites and continue for COU for much of the valid TAF period given
expected flow at cloud level and where the low clouds are now and
how it will develop with this system. This will translate to IFR
and low-end MVFR CIGs. May need to expand IFR CIGs over a larger
area based on trends heading into early this evening. These clouds
should then break up during Thursday (Thanksgiving) morning. Wind
trends were updated with expected positions of the front with
FROPA around 00z but wind speeds not expected to pick up much near
the MS river until later tonight due to frontal proximity.

Specifics for KSTL: Currently have MVFR CIGs and these should at
least continue into Thursday morning. IFR a possibility later
tonight and will bear watching but prefer to see things develop to
our NW first before committing. Warm front FROPA around 00z, which
at that time will be close to when the cold front catches up
anyway, where winds shift from S to W. Otherwise, heaviest snow
during the early-mid afternoon with more scattered SHSN late
afternoon and evening.

TES
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 262153
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
353 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 351 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Clipper system continues to impact our forecast area at this time.

At 21z...a low pressure center was located in northeast MO and
was moving slowly to the southeast. A warm front extended to the
south-southeast of this low pressure area into east-central MO--just
west of the STL metro area--where temps have risen into the upper
30s and low 40s. The cold front associated with this system is
gaining on the warm front and was now located from this low pressure
area and to the south into central MO. Temps ahead/east of the warm
front have remained in the low-mid 30s. An area of precipitation
extended in a band on the IL side of the river mostly. Nearly all of
this precipitation was snow. Drizzle has developed on the backside
of this main band and into the vicinity of what is beginning to be
an occluded front, as the cold front catches the warm.

The low pressure in northeast MO is occluding with all anticipation
that a new triple point will develop over TN this evening. In the
meantime, the front over our region will become occluded as well and
simply a wind shift line and focus for drizzle.

Temps near the MS river and IL will stall this evening and then
slowly fall, while a more normal diurnal trend will be seen for
central MO and southeast MO.  Min temps tonight will strongly favor
the higher MET MOS values with low clouds expected to stick around
all night.

The precipitation band is expected to soon stall over in IL and
gradually weaken this evening as the new focus shifts well to the
southeast for the overnight.  Leftover diurnally generated scattered
showers...mostly snow by this point...will wander into the areas
where the main pcpn band has vacated along with patchy drizzle
associated with the occluded front moving thru. Temps may be cold
enough for some FZDZ to result as well.

Additional snow accums will be minimal...with up to an inch extra in
southwest IL.  Icing potential will need to be watched carefully
with models and radar not picking up on this too well yet but
scenario does favor drizzle thru the evening.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 351 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Ridge of high pressure to move into the region on Thanksgiving with
colder temperatures. Clouds will be slow to clear out so temps to
only rise into the mid 20s to around 40.

Another cold night Thursday night with lows in the 20s. Then surface
ridge moves to the east allowing southerly winds to return and
become gusty on Friday. So highs will be near normal in the mid 40s
to mid 50s.

Warmer weather to persist through the weekend with highs in the mid
50s to mid 60s on Saturday and lows Saturday night in the low 40s to
low 50s. Models still bring a cold front into region during the day
on Sunday. High temp forecast to be tricky depending on timing of
this frontal boundary. For now have highs in the upper 40s far north
to the mid 60s far south. Otherwise, low level moisture will be on
the increase ahead of this front so could see some rain across
southern half of forecast area Sunday through Monday with it mixing
with or changing over to snow at times. Lows Sunday night will be in
the upper teens to mid 30s. Highs on Monday will be in the low 30s
to low 40s.

Weak surface ridge to build in Monday night and Tuesday. So will see
dry conditions with lows Monday night in the low 20s to low 30s and
highs on Tuesday in the 40s.

Beyond that extended models have differing solutions with ECMWF a
bit faster with next frontal passage and drier vs. GFS which is
slower and much wetter solution. For now went with a blend, have
slight chance pops Tuesday night and chance pops on Wednesday.
Temperatures to be near freezing Tuesday night in northern portions
of forecast area so could see a mix of rain and snow. Otherwise,
rain possible for mid week next week.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Low CIGs will prevail with the onset of the pcpn for MS river
sites and continue for COU for much of the valid TAF period given
expected flow at cloud level and where the low clouds are now and
how it will develop with this system. This will translate to IFR
and low-end MVFR CIGs. May need to expand IFR CIGs over a larger
area based on trends heading into early this evening. These clouds
should then break up during Thursday (Thanksgiving) morning. Wind
trends were updated with expected positions of the front with
FROPA around 00z but wind speeds not expected to pick up much near
the MS river until later tonight due to frontal proximity.

Specifics for KSTL: Currently have MVFR CIGs and these should at
least continue into Thursday morning. IFR a possibility later
tonight and will bear watching but prefer to see things develop to
our NW first before committing. Warm front FROPA around 00z, which
at that time will be close to when the cold front catches up
anyway, where winds shift from S to W. Otherwise, heaviest snow
during the early-mid afternoon with more scattered SHSN late
afternoon and evening.

TES
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 262153
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
353 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 351 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Clipper system continues to impact our forecast area at this time.

At 21z...a low pressure center was located in northeast MO and
was moving slowly to the southeast. A warm front extended to the
south-southeast of this low pressure area into east-central MO--just
west of the STL metro area--where temps have risen into the upper
30s and low 40s. The cold front associated with this system is
gaining on the warm front and was now located from this low pressure
area and to the south into central MO. Temps ahead/east of the warm
front have remained in the low-mid 30s. An area of precipitation
extended in a band on the IL side of the river mostly. Nearly all of
this precipitation was snow. Drizzle has developed on the backside
of this main band and into the vicinity of what is beginning to be
an occluded front, as the cold front catches the warm.

The low pressure in northeast MO is occluding with all anticipation
that a new triple point will develop over TN this evening. In the
meantime, the front over our region will become occluded as well and
simply a wind shift line and focus for drizzle.

Temps near the MS river and IL will stall this evening and then
slowly fall, while a more normal diurnal trend will be seen for
central MO and southeast MO.  Min temps tonight will strongly favor
the higher MET MOS values with low clouds expected to stick around
all night.

The precipitation band is expected to soon stall over in IL and
gradually weaken this evening as the new focus shifts well to the
southeast for the overnight.  Leftover diurnally generated scattered
showers...mostly snow by this point...will wander into the areas
where the main pcpn band has vacated along with patchy drizzle
associated with the occluded front moving thru. Temps may be cold
enough for some FZDZ to result as well.

Additional snow accums will be minimal...with up to an inch extra in
southwest IL.  Icing potential will need to be watched carefully
with models and radar not picking up on this too well yet but
scenario does favor drizzle thru the evening.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 351 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Ridge of high pressure to move into the region on Thanksgiving with
colder temperatures. Clouds will be slow to clear out so temps to
only rise into the mid 20s to around 40.

Another cold night Thursday night with lows in the 20s. Then surface
ridge moves to the east allowing southerly winds to return and
become gusty on Friday. So highs will be near normal in the mid 40s
to mid 50s.

Warmer weather to persist through the weekend with highs in the mid
50s to mid 60s on Saturday and lows Saturday night in the low 40s to
low 50s. Models still bring a cold front into region during the day
on Sunday. High temp forecast to be tricky depending on timing of
this frontal boundary. For now have highs in the upper 40s far north
to the mid 60s far south. Otherwise, low level moisture will be on
the increase ahead of this front so could see some rain across
southern half of forecast area Sunday through Monday with it mixing
with or changing over to snow at times. Lows Sunday night will be in
the upper teens to mid 30s. Highs on Monday will be in the low 30s
to low 40s.

Weak surface ridge to build in Monday night and Tuesday. So will see
dry conditions with lows Monday night in the low 20s to low 30s and
highs on Tuesday in the 40s.

Beyond that extended models have differing solutions with ECMWF a
bit faster with next frontal passage and drier vs. GFS which is
slower and much wetter solution. For now went with a blend, have
slight chance pops Tuesday night and chance pops on Wednesday.
Temperatures to be near freezing Tuesday night in northern portions
of forecast area so could see a mix of rain and snow. Otherwise,
rain possible for mid week next week.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Low CIGs will prevail with the onset of the pcpn for MS river
sites and continue for COU for much of the valid TAF period given
expected flow at cloud level and where the low clouds are now and
how it will develop with this system. This will translate to IFR
and low-end MVFR CIGs. May need to expand IFR CIGs over a larger
area based on trends heading into early this evening. These clouds
should then break up during Thursday (Thanksgiving) morning. Wind
trends were updated with expected positions of the front with
FROPA around 00z but wind speeds not expected to pick up much near
the MS river until later tonight due to frontal proximity.

Specifics for KSTL: Currently have MVFR CIGs and these should at
least continue into Thursday morning. IFR a possibility later
tonight and will bear watching but prefer to see things develop to
our NW first before committing. Warm front FROPA around 00z, which
at that time will be close to when the cold front catches up
anyway, where winds shift from S to W. Otherwise, heaviest snow
during the early-mid afternoon with more scattered SHSN late
afternoon and evening.

TES
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 262153
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
353 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 351 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Clipper system continues to impact our forecast area at this time.

At 21z...a low pressure center was located in northeast MO and
was moving slowly to the southeast. A warm front extended to the
south-southeast of this low pressure area into east-central MO--just
west of the STL metro area--where temps have risen into the upper
30s and low 40s. The cold front associated with this system is
gaining on the warm front and was now located from this low pressure
area and to the south into central MO. Temps ahead/east of the warm
front have remained in the low-mid 30s. An area of precipitation
extended in a band on the IL side of the river mostly. Nearly all of
this precipitation was snow. Drizzle has developed on the backside
of this main band and into the vicinity of what is beginning to be
an occluded front, as the cold front catches the warm.

The low pressure in northeast MO is occluding with all anticipation
that a new triple point will develop over TN this evening. In the
meantime, the front over our region will become occluded as well and
simply a wind shift line and focus for drizzle.

Temps near the MS river and IL will stall this evening and then
slowly fall, while a more normal diurnal trend will be seen for
central MO and southeast MO.  Min temps tonight will strongly favor
the higher MET MOS values with low clouds expected to stick around
all night.

The precipitation band is expected to soon stall over in IL and
gradually weaken this evening as the new focus shifts well to the
southeast for the overnight.  Leftover diurnally generated scattered
showers...mostly snow by this point...will wander into the areas
where the main pcpn band has vacated along with patchy drizzle
associated with the occluded front moving thru. Temps may be cold
enough for some FZDZ to result as well.

Additional snow accums will be minimal...with up to an inch extra in
southwest IL.  Icing potential will need to be watched carefully
with models and radar not picking up on this too well yet but
scenario does favor drizzle thru the evening.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 351 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Ridge of high pressure to move into the region on Thanksgiving with
colder temperatures. Clouds will be slow to clear out so temps to
only rise into the mid 20s to around 40.

Another cold night Thursday night with lows in the 20s. Then surface
ridge moves to the east allowing southerly winds to return and
become gusty on Friday. So highs will be near normal in the mid 40s
to mid 50s.

Warmer weather to persist through the weekend with highs in the mid
50s to mid 60s on Saturday and lows Saturday night in the low 40s to
low 50s. Models still bring a cold front into region during the day
on Sunday. High temp forecast to be tricky depending on timing of
this frontal boundary. For now have highs in the upper 40s far north
to the mid 60s far south. Otherwise, low level moisture will be on
the increase ahead of this front so could see some rain across
southern half of forecast area Sunday through Monday with it mixing
with or changing over to snow at times. Lows Sunday night will be in
the upper teens to mid 30s. Highs on Monday will be in the low 30s
to low 40s.

Weak surface ridge to build in Monday night and Tuesday. So will see
dry conditions with lows Monday night in the low 20s to low 30s and
highs on Tuesday in the 40s.

Beyond that extended models have differing solutions with ECMWF a
bit faster with next frontal passage and drier vs. GFS which is
slower and much wetter solution. For now went with a blend, have
slight chance pops Tuesday night and chance pops on Wednesday.
Temperatures to be near freezing Tuesday night in northern portions
of forecast area so could see a mix of rain and snow. Otherwise,
rain possible for mid week next week.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Low CIGs will prevail with the onset of the pcpn for MS river
sites and continue for COU for much of the valid TAF period given
expected flow at cloud level and where the low clouds are now and
how it will develop with this system. This will translate to IFR
and low-end MVFR CIGs. May need to expand IFR CIGs over a larger
area based on trends heading into early this evening. These clouds
should then break up during Thursday (Thanksgiving) morning. Wind
trends were updated with expected positions of the front with
FROPA around 00z but wind speeds not expected to pick up much near
the MS river until later tonight due to frontal proximity.

Specifics for KSTL: Currently have MVFR CIGs and these should at
least continue into Thursday morning. IFR a possibility later
tonight and will bear watching but prefer to see things develop to
our NW first before committing. Warm front FROPA around 00z, which
at that time will be close to when the cold front catches up
anyway, where winds shift from S to W. Otherwise, heaviest snow
during the early-mid afternoon with more scattered SHSN late
afternoon and evening.

TES
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 262153
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
353 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 351 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Clipper system continues to impact our forecast area at this time.

At 21z...a low pressure center was located in northeast MO and
was moving slowly to the southeast. A warm front extended to the
south-southeast of this low pressure area into east-central MO--just
west of the STL metro area--where temps have risen into the upper
30s and low 40s. The cold front associated with this system is
gaining on the warm front and was now located from this low pressure
area and to the south into central MO. Temps ahead/east of the warm
front have remained in the low-mid 30s. An area of precipitation
extended in a band on the IL side of the river mostly. Nearly all of
this precipitation was snow. Drizzle has developed on the backside
of this main band and into the vicinity of what is beginning to be
an occluded front, as the cold front catches the warm.

The low pressure in northeast MO is occluding with all anticipation
that a new triple point will develop over TN this evening. In the
meantime, the front over our region will become occluded as well and
simply a wind shift line and focus for drizzle.

Temps near the MS river and IL will stall this evening and then
slowly fall, while a more normal diurnal trend will be seen for
central MO and southeast MO.  Min temps tonight will strongly favor
the higher MET MOS values with low clouds expected to stick around
all night.

The precipitation band is expected to soon stall over in IL and
gradually weaken this evening as the new focus shifts well to the
southeast for the overnight.  Leftover diurnally generated scattered
showers...mostly snow by this point...will wander into the areas
where the main pcpn band has vacated along with patchy drizzle
associated with the occluded front moving thru. Temps may be cold
enough for some FZDZ to result as well.

Additional snow accums will be minimal...with up to an inch extra in
southwest IL.  Icing potential will need to be watched carefully
with models and radar not picking up on this too well yet but
scenario does favor drizzle thru the evening.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 351 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Ridge of high pressure to move into the region on Thanksgiving with
colder temperatures. Clouds will be slow to clear out so temps to
only rise into the mid 20s to around 40.

Another cold night Thursday night with lows in the 20s. Then surface
ridge moves to the east allowing southerly winds to return and
become gusty on Friday. So highs will be near normal in the mid 40s
to mid 50s.

Warmer weather to persist through the weekend with highs in the mid
50s to mid 60s on Saturday and lows Saturday night in the low 40s to
low 50s. Models still bring a cold front into region during the day
on Sunday. High temp forecast to be tricky depending on timing of
this frontal boundary. For now have highs in the upper 40s far north
to the mid 60s far south. Otherwise, low level moisture will be on
the increase ahead of this front so could see some rain across
southern half of forecast area Sunday through Monday with it mixing
with or changing over to snow at times. Lows Sunday night will be in
the upper teens to mid 30s. Highs on Monday will be in the low 30s
to low 40s.

Weak surface ridge to build in Monday night and Tuesday. So will see
dry conditions with lows Monday night in the low 20s to low 30s and
highs on Tuesday in the 40s.

Beyond that extended models have differing solutions with ECMWF a
bit faster with next frontal passage and drier vs. GFS which is
slower and much wetter solution. For now went with a blend, have
slight chance pops Tuesday night and chance pops on Wednesday.
Temperatures to be near freezing Tuesday night in northern portions
of forecast area so could see a mix of rain and snow. Otherwise,
rain possible for mid week next week.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Low CIGs will prevail with the onset of the pcpn for MS river
sites and continue for COU for much of the valid TAF period given
expected flow at cloud level and where the low clouds are now and
how it will develop with this system. This will translate to IFR
and low-end MVFR CIGs. May need to expand IFR CIGs over a larger
area based on trends heading into early this evening. These clouds
should then break up during Thursday (Thanksgiving) morning. Wind
trends were updated with expected positions of the front with
FROPA around 00z but wind speeds not expected to pick up much near
the MS river until later tonight due to frontal proximity.

Specifics for KSTL: Currently have MVFR CIGs and these should at
least continue into Thursday morning. IFR a possibility later
tonight and will bear watching but prefer to see things develop to
our NW first before committing. Warm front FROPA around 00z, which
at that time will be close to when the cold front catches up
anyway, where winds shift from S to W. Otherwise, heaviest snow
during the early-mid afternoon with more scattered SHSN late
afternoon and evening.

TES
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KEAX 262055
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
255 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A strong clipper system is tracking through the region with most of
the forecast area entering the backside of the trough. The low-level
circulation associated with the upper shortwave has remained nearly
stationary and has only drifted slightly southward throughout the
day, with snow occurring across Iowa. As this area begins to move
southeast through the evening/overnight light snow may spread back
into northern/northeastern Missouri. But there should also be a
general weakening trend as the support from the upper trough
moves away. So for now, will keep a mention for a chance of snow
through about midnight in our far northeastern counties. With the
intensity weakening, not thinking that any additional snow amounts
will occur.

After this system moves out, the weather trends to being quiet for
the weekend with a substantial warmup expected for Friday and
Saturday. Winds will become southerly/southwesterly Friday, with
strong warm advection aloft. This trend will persist into Saturday
and as a result highs should be able to climb into the 50s on Friday
and the lower 60s on Saturday. To add some perspective on this
warmup, the normal high temperature for Friday and Saturday is 47
and 46 respectively. So we will be looking a temperatures at least
15 degrees above normal to start the weekend. Sunday is a little
trickier. Models are in good agreement moving a strong cold front
through the area sometime during the day. But there is a fair amount
of difference with the timing and this will have a huge impact on
temperatures given the strong cold advection behind the front and
the warm air in place ahead the front. By midday, all the models
have the front through far northwestern Missouri, so confidence is
fairly high that temperatures in that portion of the forecast area
will be in the 30s. But the rest of the forecast area is quite
variable with the GFS faster than both the ECMWF and the GEM. If the
front is slower like the ECMWF and the GEM depict, portions of the
forecast area could see the mid to upper 60s. If the GFS verifies,
then highs would be set early in the day with temperatures steady or
falling through the afternoon. Regardless, models have continued to
trend drier and now it looks like it should be a dry frontal passage.

This colder air should be relatively short-lived as the cold high
pressure center moves over the Great Lakes region. By early Tuesday,
as the high continues to shift east, winds in the local area will
turn to the south and a decent recovery is expected for Tuesday
afternoon with highs getting close to normal levels. From there,
models begin to diverge significantly with the ECMWF and the GFS
nearly out of phase in a relatively flattened upper-level pattern.
In the lower levels, the ECMWF moves a cool surface high pressure
over the region, whereas the GFS stretches a baroclinic zone across
the area with a surface front draped over northern Missouri. The end
result is at least a 25 degree difference in the surface
temperatures between the two models and a very low confidence
forecast for Wednesday into Thursday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1104 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR conditions expected through the TAF period until early Thursday
morning. Cloud deck in place will remain more or less stationary
until finally pushing eastward toward the end of the period. Gusty
NW winds will persist through Wednesday afternoon as ceilings
gradually improve overnight.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 262055
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
255 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A strong clipper system is tracking through the region with most of
the forecast area entering the backside of the trough. The low-level
circulation associated with the upper shortwave has remained nearly
stationary and has only drifted slightly southward throughout the
day, with snow occurring across Iowa. As this area begins to move
southeast through the evening/overnight light snow may spread back
into northern/northeastern Missouri. But there should also be a
general weakening trend as the support from the upper trough
moves away. So for now, will keep a mention for a chance of snow
through about midnight in our far northeastern counties. With the
intensity weakening, not thinking that any additional snow amounts
will occur.

After this system moves out, the weather trends to being quiet for
the weekend with a substantial warmup expected for Friday and
Saturday. Winds will become southerly/southwesterly Friday, with
strong warm advection aloft. This trend will persist into Saturday
and as a result highs should be able to climb into the 50s on Friday
and the lower 60s on Saturday. To add some perspective on this
warmup, the normal high temperature for Friday and Saturday is 47
and 46 respectively. So we will be looking a temperatures at least
15 degrees above normal to start the weekend. Sunday is a little
trickier. Models are in good agreement moving a strong cold front
through the area sometime during the day. But there is a fair amount
of difference with the timing and this will have a huge impact on
temperatures given the strong cold advection behind the front and
the warm air in place ahead the front. By midday, all the models
have the front through far northwestern Missouri, so confidence is
fairly high that temperatures in that portion of the forecast area
will be in the 30s. But the rest of the forecast area is quite
variable with the GFS faster than both the ECMWF and the GEM. If the
front is slower like the ECMWF and the GEM depict, portions of the
forecast area could see the mid to upper 60s. If the GFS verifies,
then highs would be set early in the day with temperatures steady or
falling through the afternoon. Regardless, models have continued to
trend drier and now it looks like it should be a dry frontal passage.

This colder air should be relatively short-lived as the cold high
pressure center moves over the Great Lakes region. By early Tuesday,
as the high continues to shift east, winds in the local area will
turn to the south and a decent recovery is expected for Tuesday
afternoon with highs getting close to normal levels. From there,
models begin to diverge significantly with the ECMWF and the GFS
nearly out of phase in a relatively flattened upper-level pattern.
In the lower levels, the ECMWF moves a cool surface high pressure
over the region, whereas the GFS stretches a baroclinic zone across
the area with a surface front draped over northern Missouri. The end
result is at least a 25 degree difference in the surface
temperatures between the two models and a very low confidence
forecast for Wednesday into Thursday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1104 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR conditions expected through the TAF period until early Thursday
morning. Cloud deck in place will remain more or less stationary
until finally pushing eastward toward the end of the period. Gusty
NW winds will persist through Wednesday afternoon as ceilings
gradually improve overnight.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KSGF 262054
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
254 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Chilly and Tranquil Weather Thanksgiving Day...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A vigorous shortwave trough was sliding southeast across Missouri
this afternoon. This system brought a relatively brief period of
light snow this morning. Scattered light rain/snow showers and
sprinkles/flurries had developed this afternoon underneath the
upper level cold core.

Clouds along with the scattered light precipitation will persist
into the late afternoon and perhaps early evening hours primarily
across the eastern Ozarks.

Surface high pressure will build into the Ozarks Thanksgiving day
providing tranquil and chilly weather conditions. Under plenty of
sunshine high temperatures will be 10-15 degrees below normal.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

The upper pattern will become more zonal as we head into Friday
and Saturday while southerly winds return. This will result in a
substantial warming trend with highs climbing into the 60s by
Sunday.

A dry cold front will sag southward across the region Sunday while
the main belt of westerlies remains to our north. This front will
stall just to our south across Arkansas Sunday night into Monday.
Moisture and warm air advection over top this boundary will bring
an increase in clouds later Sunday into Monday. Some light
precipitation may develop Sunday night into Monday across southern
Missouri. Progged thermal profiles suggest that light freezing
rain would be possible late Sunday night into early Monday
morning. However any precipitation will be very light.

A more substantial chance of precipitation in the form of rain will
develop during the middle and later part of next week as an upper
trough approaches from the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Interesting morning as a quick shot of snow was followed
immediately by sunshine and then a resurgence of stratus. Snow is
no longer a concern for the TAF locations as temperatures are well
into the 40s, though MVFR ceilings and sporadic light showers or
sprinkles will affect SGF this afternoon and perhaps BBG late this
afternoon. Stratus will linger into the evening, shift off to the
east overnight. VFR conditions are expected on Thursday. Northwest
winds will be gusty into this evening, slackening quickly
overnight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 262054
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
254 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Chilly and Tranquil Weather Thanksgiving Day...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A vigorous shortwave trough was sliding southeast across Missouri
this afternoon. This system brought a relatively brief period of
light snow this morning. Scattered light rain/snow showers and
sprinkles/flurries had developed this afternoon underneath the
upper level cold core.

Clouds along with the scattered light precipitation will persist
into the late afternoon and perhaps early evening hours primarily
across the eastern Ozarks.

Surface high pressure will build into the Ozarks Thanksgiving day
providing tranquil and chilly weather conditions. Under plenty of
sunshine high temperatures will be 10-15 degrees below normal.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

The upper pattern will become more zonal as we head into Friday
and Saturday while southerly winds return. This will result in a
substantial warming trend with highs climbing into the 60s by
Sunday.

A dry cold front will sag southward across the region Sunday while
the main belt of westerlies remains to our north. This front will
stall just to our south across Arkansas Sunday night into Monday.
Moisture and warm air advection over top this boundary will bring
an increase in clouds later Sunday into Monday. Some light
precipitation may develop Sunday night into Monday across southern
Missouri. Progged thermal profiles suggest that light freezing
rain would be possible late Sunday night into early Monday
morning. However any precipitation will be very light.

A more substantial chance of precipitation in the form of rain will
develop during the middle and later part of next week as an upper
trough approaches from the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Interesting morning as a quick shot of snow was followed
immediately by sunshine and then a resurgence of stratus. Snow is
no longer a concern for the TAF locations as temperatures are well
into the 40s, though MVFR ceilings and sporadic light showers or
sprinkles will affect SGF this afternoon and perhaps BBG late this
afternoon. Stratus will linger into the evening, shift off to the
east overnight. VFR conditions are expected on Thursday. Northwest
winds will be gusty into this evening, slackening quickly
overnight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 261822 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1222 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1222 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Forecast updated to account for latest temperature and PoP trends.
Quick moving band of snow has exited to the east bringing, as
expected, a dusting of snow to locations along and east of a line
from Nevada to Springfield to Branson. The more consistent
accumulations were across central Missouri and portions of the
eastern Ozarks, where around a half inch to perhaps one inch of
snow was observed. Sunshine and warming to above freezing will
likely result in most, if not all of this snow melting this
afternoon.

For the rest of this afternoon, we will continue to deal with this
clipper system as it moves into the center of the nation. The
surface low track will move from north central Missouri into the
Ohio River Valley region. Additional light rain showers/sprinkles
will develop across the eastern half of the outlook area this
afternoon, mixed with a few snow showers across portions of
central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks where temperatures remain
closer to the mid 30s. This activity will shift east this evening
with a few sprinkles/flurries lingering across the eastern Ozarks.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 142 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A small, fast moving, but vigorous shortwave is digging southeast
into eastern Neb/western IA. Strongly diffluent flow aloft with
the exit region of jet streak has spread southeast into ne KS and
nw MO and radar reflectivity returns have reached as far southeast
as the KC metro. However, with dry air in place at lower levels,
some of this precip along the leading edge is not reaching the
ground. Farther to the nw, obs do eventually see a mix of rain and
snow.

We should see the shortwave continue to dig to the southeast into
the forecast area by midday/18z with the strongest lift moving
quickly across the region this morning, especially over the
northeast half to three quarters of the cwfa. Low level warm
advection and clouds have allowed temperatures to remain
relatively mild over the western cwfa tonight and expect that
trend to continue from west to east over the next few hours.
Basically lift/evaporative cooling from precip aloft will fight
warm advection/limited diurnal heating in terms of low level
temperature profiles this morning. In general went with a high res
model blend in terms of timing/temperatures/thermal profiles. In
short, we should see a mix of rain and snow (maybe a little sleet
at onset), similar to what we are seeing upstream. Have edged the
accumulating snow a little farther southwest versus previous
forecasts with the highest amounts over the northeast cwfa/Lake of
the Ozarks region (0.5-0.7 inches) where the snow could very
briefly be more intense. The short residence time of the strong
lift in any one area along with relatively warm sfc temperatures
and limited solar thermal radiation will limit snow amounts. Some
slick spots on roadways will be possible for a brief time where
more intense snow can fall early this morning. Given the small
scale of the system, there will still be some maneuvering of the
forecast and forecast message/impacts based on observed trends.

Blustery winds veering to the west and northwest can also be
expected today with some gusts of 30-35 mph possible over the
western cwfa toward midday behind the trailing sfc front.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 142 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

No big changes to the forecast for Thanksgiving and into the
weekend. A sfc ridge of Canadian high pressure nosing south into
the central U.S. will shift west-east through MO on Thursday. A
quick warm up will develop Friday as a flat upper ridge moves east
into the the central CONUS. Warm temperatures will continue over
the upcoming weekend.

A split upper level flow develops late in the week, and a
shortwave in the northern stream will allow a cold front to move
into the area late Sunday and Sunday night. Not looking at
brutally cold air which will remain to the north, but highs will
be colder by Monday (30s and 40s). Not entirely sold on a warming
trend for Tuesday, but will go with a model blend. Quite a bit of
divergence in guidance patterns start to emerge early next week,
so hard to argue with the fcst blend/mean at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Interesting morning as a quick shot of snow was followed
immediately by sunshine and then a resurgence of stratus. Snow is
no longer a concern for the TAF locations as temperatures are well
into the 40s, though MVFR ceilings and sporadic light showers or
sprinkles will affect SGF this afternoon and perhaps BBG late this
afternoon. Stratus will linger into the evening, shift off to the
east overnight. VFR conditions are expected on Thursday. Northwest
winds will be gusty into this evening, slackening quickly
overnight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 261822 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1222 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1222 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Forecast updated to account for latest temperature and PoP trends.
Quick moving band of snow has exited to the east bringing, as
expected, a dusting of snow to locations along and east of a line
from Nevada to Springfield to Branson. The more consistent
accumulations were across central Missouri and portions of the
eastern Ozarks, where around a half inch to perhaps one inch of
snow was observed. Sunshine and warming to above freezing will
likely result in most, if not all of this snow melting this
afternoon.

For the rest of this afternoon, we will continue to deal with this
clipper system as it moves into the center of the nation. The
surface low track will move from north central Missouri into the
Ohio River Valley region. Additional light rain showers/sprinkles
will develop across the eastern half of the outlook area this
afternoon, mixed with a few snow showers across portions of
central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks where temperatures remain
closer to the mid 30s. This activity will shift east this evening
with a few sprinkles/flurries lingering across the eastern Ozarks.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 142 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A small, fast moving, but vigorous shortwave is digging southeast
into eastern Neb/western IA. Strongly diffluent flow aloft with
the exit region of jet streak has spread southeast into ne KS and
nw MO and radar reflectivity returns have reached as far southeast
as the KC metro. However, with dry air in place at lower levels,
some of this precip along the leading edge is not reaching the
ground. Farther to the nw, obs do eventually see a mix of rain and
snow.

We should see the shortwave continue to dig to the southeast into
the forecast area by midday/18z with the strongest lift moving
quickly across the region this morning, especially over the
northeast half to three quarters of the cwfa. Low level warm
advection and clouds have allowed temperatures to remain
relatively mild over the western cwfa tonight and expect that
trend to continue from west to east over the next few hours.
Basically lift/evaporative cooling from precip aloft will fight
warm advection/limited diurnal heating in terms of low level
temperature profiles this morning. In general went with a high res
model blend in terms of timing/temperatures/thermal profiles. In
short, we should see a mix of rain and snow (maybe a little sleet
at onset), similar to what we are seeing upstream. Have edged the
accumulating snow a little farther southwest versus previous
forecasts with the highest amounts over the northeast cwfa/Lake of
the Ozarks region (0.5-0.7 inches) where the snow could very
briefly be more intense. The short residence time of the strong
lift in any one area along with relatively warm sfc temperatures
and limited solar thermal radiation will limit snow amounts. Some
slick spots on roadways will be possible for a brief time where
more intense snow can fall early this morning. Given the small
scale of the system, there will still be some maneuvering of the
forecast and forecast message/impacts based on observed trends.

Blustery winds veering to the west and northwest can also be
expected today with some gusts of 30-35 mph possible over the
western cwfa toward midday behind the trailing sfc front.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 142 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

No big changes to the forecast for Thanksgiving and into the
weekend. A sfc ridge of Canadian high pressure nosing south into
the central U.S. will shift west-east through MO on Thursday. A
quick warm up will develop Friday as a flat upper ridge moves east
into the the central CONUS. Warm temperatures will continue over
the upcoming weekend.

A split upper level flow develops late in the week, and a
shortwave in the northern stream will allow a cold front to move
into the area late Sunday and Sunday night. Not looking at
brutally cold air which will remain to the north, but highs will
be colder by Monday (30s and 40s). Not entirely sold on a warming
trend for Tuesday, but will go with a model blend. Quite a bit of
divergence in guidance patterns start to emerge early next week,
so hard to argue with the fcst blend/mean at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Interesting morning as a quick shot of snow was followed
immediately by sunshine and then a resurgence of stratus. Snow is
no longer a concern for the TAF locations as temperatures are well
into the 40s, though MVFR ceilings and sporadic light showers or
sprinkles will affect SGF this afternoon and perhaps BBG late this
afternoon. Stratus will linger into the evening, shift off to the
east overnight. VFR conditions are expected on Thursday. Northwest
winds will be gusty into this evening, slackening quickly
overnight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 261822 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1222 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1222 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Forecast updated to account for latest temperature and PoP trends.
Quick moving band of snow has exited to the east bringing, as
expected, a dusting of snow to locations along and east of a line
from Nevada to Springfield to Branson. The more consistent
accumulations were across central Missouri and portions of the
eastern Ozarks, where around a half inch to perhaps one inch of
snow was observed. Sunshine and warming to above freezing will
likely result in most, if not all of this snow melting this
afternoon.

For the rest of this afternoon, we will continue to deal with this
clipper system as it moves into the center of the nation. The
surface low track will move from north central Missouri into the
Ohio River Valley region. Additional light rain showers/sprinkles
will develop across the eastern half of the outlook area this
afternoon, mixed with a few snow showers across portions of
central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks where temperatures remain
closer to the mid 30s. This activity will shift east this evening
with a few sprinkles/flurries lingering across the eastern Ozarks.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 142 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A small, fast moving, but vigorous shortwave is digging southeast
into eastern Neb/western IA. Strongly diffluent flow aloft with
the exit region of jet streak has spread southeast into ne KS and
nw MO and radar reflectivity returns have reached as far southeast
as the KC metro. However, with dry air in place at lower levels,
some of this precip along the leading edge is not reaching the
ground. Farther to the nw, obs do eventually see a mix of rain and
snow.

We should see the shortwave continue to dig to the southeast into
the forecast area by midday/18z with the strongest lift moving
quickly across the region this morning, especially over the
northeast half to three quarters of the cwfa. Low level warm
advection and clouds have allowed temperatures to remain
relatively mild over the western cwfa tonight and expect that
trend to continue from west to east over the next few hours.
Basically lift/evaporative cooling from precip aloft will fight
warm advection/limited diurnal heating in terms of low level
temperature profiles this morning. In general went with a high res
model blend in terms of timing/temperatures/thermal profiles. In
short, we should see a mix of rain and snow (maybe a little sleet
at onset), similar to what we are seeing upstream. Have edged the
accumulating snow a little farther southwest versus previous
forecasts with the highest amounts over the northeast cwfa/Lake of
the Ozarks region (0.5-0.7 inches) where the snow could very
briefly be more intense. The short residence time of the strong
lift in any one area along with relatively warm sfc temperatures
and limited solar thermal radiation will limit snow amounts. Some
slick spots on roadways will be possible for a brief time where
more intense snow can fall early this morning. Given the small
scale of the system, there will still be some maneuvering of the
forecast and forecast message/impacts based on observed trends.

Blustery winds veering to the west and northwest can also be
expected today with some gusts of 30-35 mph possible over the
western cwfa toward midday behind the trailing sfc front.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 142 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

No big changes to the forecast for Thanksgiving and into the
weekend. A sfc ridge of Canadian high pressure nosing south into
the central U.S. will shift west-east through MO on Thursday. A
quick warm up will develop Friday as a flat upper ridge moves east
into the the central CONUS. Warm temperatures will continue over
the upcoming weekend.

A split upper level flow develops late in the week, and a
shortwave in the northern stream will allow a cold front to move
into the area late Sunday and Sunday night. Not looking at
brutally cold air which will remain to the north, but highs will
be colder by Monday (30s and 40s). Not entirely sold on a warming
trend for Tuesday, but will go with a model blend. Quite a bit of
divergence in guidance patterns start to emerge early next week,
so hard to argue with the fcst blend/mean at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Interesting morning as a quick shot of snow was followed
immediately by sunshine and then a resurgence of stratus. Snow is
no longer a concern for the TAF locations as temperatures are well
into the 40s, though MVFR ceilings and sporadic light showers or
sprinkles will affect SGF this afternoon and perhaps BBG late this
afternoon. Stratus will linger into the evening, shift off to the
east overnight. VFR conditions are expected on Thursday. Northwest
winds will be gusty into this evening, slackening quickly
overnight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 261822 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1222 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1222 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Forecast updated to account for latest temperature and PoP trends.
Quick moving band of snow has exited to the east bringing, as
expected, a dusting of snow to locations along and east of a line
from Nevada to Springfield to Branson. The more consistent
accumulations were across central Missouri and portions of the
eastern Ozarks, where around a half inch to perhaps one inch of
snow was observed. Sunshine and warming to above freezing will
likely result in most, if not all of this snow melting this
afternoon.

For the rest of this afternoon, we will continue to deal with this
clipper system as it moves into the center of the nation. The
surface low track will move from north central Missouri into the
Ohio River Valley region. Additional light rain showers/sprinkles
will develop across the eastern half of the outlook area this
afternoon, mixed with a few snow showers across portions of
central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks where temperatures remain
closer to the mid 30s. This activity will shift east this evening
with a few sprinkles/flurries lingering across the eastern Ozarks.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 142 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A small, fast moving, but vigorous shortwave is digging southeast
into eastern Neb/western IA. Strongly diffluent flow aloft with
the exit region of jet streak has spread southeast into ne KS and
nw MO and radar reflectivity returns have reached as far southeast
as the KC metro. However, with dry air in place at lower levels,
some of this precip along the leading edge is not reaching the
ground. Farther to the nw, obs do eventually see a mix of rain and
snow.

We should see the shortwave continue to dig to the southeast into
the forecast area by midday/18z with the strongest lift moving
quickly across the region this morning, especially over the
northeast half to three quarters of the cwfa. Low level warm
advection and clouds have allowed temperatures to remain
relatively mild over the western cwfa tonight and expect that
trend to continue from west to east over the next few hours.
Basically lift/evaporative cooling from precip aloft will fight
warm advection/limited diurnal heating in terms of low level
temperature profiles this morning. In general went with a high res
model blend in terms of timing/temperatures/thermal profiles. In
short, we should see a mix of rain and snow (maybe a little sleet
at onset), similar to what we are seeing upstream. Have edged the
accumulating snow a little farther southwest versus previous
forecasts with the highest amounts over the northeast cwfa/Lake of
the Ozarks region (0.5-0.7 inches) where the snow could very
briefly be more intense. The short residence time of the strong
lift in any one area along with relatively warm sfc temperatures
and limited solar thermal radiation will limit snow amounts. Some
slick spots on roadways will be possible for a brief time where
more intense snow can fall early this morning. Given the small
scale of the system, there will still be some maneuvering of the
forecast and forecast message/impacts based on observed trends.

Blustery winds veering to the west and northwest can also be
expected today with some gusts of 30-35 mph possible over the
western cwfa toward midday behind the trailing sfc front.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 142 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

No big changes to the forecast for Thanksgiving and into the
weekend. A sfc ridge of Canadian high pressure nosing south into
the central U.S. will shift west-east through MO on Thursday. A
quick warm up will develop Friday as a flat upper ridge moves east
into the the central CONUS. Warm temperatures will continue over
the upcoming weekend.

A split upper level flow develops late in the week, and a
shortwave in the northern stream will allow a cold front to move
into the area late Sunday and Sunday night. Not looking at
brutally cold air which will remain to the north, but highs will
be colder by Monday (30s and 40s). Not entirely sold on a warming
trend for Tuesday, but will go with a model blend. Quite a bit of
divergence in guidance patterns start to emerge early next week,
so hard to argue with the fcst blend/mean at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Interesting morning as a quick shot of snow was followed
immediately by sunshine and then a resurgence of stratus. Snow is
no longer a concern for the TAF locations as temperatures are well
into the 40s, though MVFR ceilings and sporadic light showers or
sprinkles will affect SGF this afternoon and perhaps BBG late this
afternoon. Stratus will linger into the evening, shift off to the
east overnight. VFR conditions are expected on Thursday. Northwest
winds will be gusty into this evening, slackening quickly
overnight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KLSX 261805
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1205 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1150 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Clipper system continues to impact our forecast area at this time.

At 17z...a low pressure center was located in north-central MO and
was moving slowly to the southeast. A warm front extended to the
south of this low pressure area into central MO, where temps were
rising into the low 40s. The cold front associated with this
system was located from this low pressure area into the western KC
metro area. Temps ahead of the warm front remain stubbornly in the
low-mid 30s for most areas. An area of precipitation extended in a
band, mostly, from the cool side of the warm front in southeast MO
thru the STL metro area and to the north side of the low pressure
area in central IA. Most of this precipitation was snow.

The low pressure in northern MO was in the process of occluding
with all anticipation that a new triple point will develop over TN
this evening. In the meantime, the cold front is expected to catch
up to the warm front and pinch the warm sector off while the newly
developing cold front edges into the MS river area, including STL
metro, by nightfall.

So...look for temps to not really go anywhere today for areas near
the MS river and in IL where the warm air will never arrive. Over
in central and parts of southeast MO, temps will rise into the low
40s this afternoon.

The precipitation band will continue to slowly push east this
afternoon but at some point...likely over southwestern IL...stop
as the whole thing inflects and centers around the new LOW
developing in TN this evening. Scattered rain...and snow...showers
will be seen this afternoon for central MO...with these showers
shifting to the MS river area for this evening.

Surface temps will be critical for pcpn-types given the vertical
temp profiles, but much of the pcpn should remain all snow with
some better chances of rain where the pcpn scatters out on the
otherside of the warm front and near the new cold front. A wet
inch of snow is possible mostly for the UIN area, but also
possible for areas further south on grassy surfaces. Minor
additional accums possible into this evening before everything
dissipates and/or shifts southeast overnight.

TES

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Clipper system over Nebraska/Iowa border will continue to drop
southeast today, bringing the area some light snow/rain. Short
range guidance including the HRRR, RAP, NAM and GFS are in good
agreement that light precip will overspread the area through the
morning hours, reaching the Mississippi River between 16-18Z.
Primary lifting mechanisms continue to look like low level
moisture convergence, frontogenesis, and broad scale lift
generated by the parent shortwave. Precipitation will initially
have to fight some pretty dry low level air as it moves into the
area as dewpoints are in the upper teens and low 20s. Evaporative
cooling as well as favorable vertical profiles would indicate that
initially most if not all of the precipitation will fall as
snow...especially over central and northeast Missouri. Insolation
through later in the morning and afternoon, combined with
southerly flow along and east of the Mississippi river (which will
be east of the low track) will probably cause the snow to mix with
rain across a good portion of the area for at least part of the
afternoon. Between the mix, above freezing temperatures, and warm
ground conditions (2 inch soil temperatures range from 32 to 40
degrees across the area), expect only minor accumulations of and
inch or less today. The tail end of the clipper will continue to
affect the area this evening with additional minor accumulations
possible...generally along and east of the Mississippi in
southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. The lingering
precipitation should end before 06Z this evening.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 410 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Quiet period of weather for Thanksgiving Day through Saturday as the
pattern transitions from high amplitude to more zonal.  After a cold
day on Thanksgiving with highs struggling into the upper 20s to mid
30s, the trof currently over the eastern CONUS will shift offshore
by early Friday morning which will start a moderating trend.  Low
level southwest flow will bring temperatures up to near normal in
the low 50s, and temperatures will warm further on Saturday into the
upper 50s and low 60s.  Continuing to keep a dry forecast on
Saturday in spite of the GFS and ECMWF which continue to spit out
light QPF.  Still think this is due to the rapidly moistening
boundary layer and the model`s tendency to make precipitation when
this occurs.  Sunday`s highs are still in question as a 1035mb high
dips down into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.  The resulting
cold front will be moving into northern sections of our area during
the day which makes high temperature forecasts for Sunday quite
difficult.  Should be mild south of the front with highs in the 50s
and 60s...possibly warmer.  North of the front it will be sharply
colder.  As there will be frontal-scale lift as well as weak low
level moisture convergence, have kept low chance PoPs in the
forecast south of the front in the warm sector.  High will shift
eastward Monday and Tuesday.  Medium range guidance agrees that
Monday should be cool and dry under the influence of the high, with
the potential for temperatures rising back above normal for Tuesday
as southerly flow returns to the area.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Low CIGs will prevail with the onset of the pcpn for MS river
sites and continue for COU for much of the valid TAF period given
expected flow at cloud level and where the low clouds are now and
how it will develop with this system. This will translate to IFR
and low-end MVFR CIGs. May need to expand IFR CIGs over a larger
area based on trends heading into early this evening. These clouds
should then break up during Thursday (Thanksgiving) morning. Wind
trends were updated with expected positions of the front with
FROPA around 00z but wind speeds not expected to pick up much near
the MS river until later tonight due to frontal proximity.

Specifics for KSTL: Currently have MVFR CIGs and these should at
least continue into Thursday morning. IFR a possibility later
tonight and will bear watching but prefer to see things develop to
our NW first before committing. Warm front FROPA around 00z, which
at that time will be close to when the cold front catches up
anyway, where winds shift from S to W. Otherwise, heaviest snow
during the early-mid afternoon with more scattered SHSN late
afternoon and evening.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KEAX 261714
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1114 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Today/Tonight: Forecast looks on track for the next 12 hours.
Currently, water vapor and radar imagery shows a well-defined
clipper system centered over western Iowa. With increasing ascent,
radar returns have blossomed over the past couple of hours, with
precipitation spreading into much of northwest Missouri and Iowa. As
anticipated, temperature profiles along the I-29 corridor have
yielded a mix of rain and snow, with surface observations reporting
light snow over much of Iowa stretching into north central Missouri.
Through mid-morning, portions of eastern Kansas and far western
Missouri should expect a rain-snow mix, whereas areas further east
in the cold air over north central and northeast Missouri should see
primarily snow. For areas in the colder air of north central and
northeast Missouri, total snowfall accumulations should average
between 0.5" to 1" of snow before noon. Little to no accumulation is
expected outside of those geographical areas, thanks in part to
relatively warm surface temperatures. As the upper disturbance moves
through the region, a suite of models suggest light precipitation
may redevelop late this morning into the afternoon over the eastern
half of the CWA. With slightly warmer air in the lowest couple
thousand feet by this afternoon along with some loss in ice
introduction in the cloud layer, higher uncertainty exists with
precipitation type, with a rain-snow mix the most likely scenario.
Regardless, little to no additional accumulation is anticipated upon
the exit of the initial wave of precipitation this morning.
Precipitation should quickly exit the forecast area by late this
afternoon or early evening, with some cloud cover thinning over
eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Lows tonight will be chilly,
with temperatures in the middle teens to middle 20s.

Thursday: One final shot of cold air is projected to move through
the region on Thursday as surface high pressure builds into the
region and the pesky longwave trough slowly shifts east.
Thanksgiving day will be chilly with highs in the upper 20s
northeast to near 40 southwestern CWA, with dry weather prevailing.
Lows Thursday night will fall into the 20s areawide.

Friday/Saturday: On Friday, weak upper ridging across the western
two-thirds of the CONUS will provide a large and fairly aggressive
warm air advection regime over much of the Great Plains, spreading
eastward. With surface high pressure sliding off to the east,
southerly winds will return early on Friday. The end result is a
quick warmup Friday into Saturday, with afternoon temperatures in
the upper 40s to upper 50s on Friday. The warmest day is expected on
Saturday with highs reaching the middle 50s to lower 60s across the
forecast area. Precipitation is not expected during this multi-day
period of warm weather, making for an optimal time for any outdoor
activities.

Extended: Models diverge on the speed of a cold front projected to
move through the area on Sunday. This will have potential affects on
forecast high temperatures. Currently went closer to the ECMWF
solution, but any slower trend may yield a slightly warmer day on
Sunday. Similar model challenges continue into early next week.
While Monday looks quite cold with below normal temperatures,
Tuesdays temperatures remain in question depending on the frontal
progression southward as well as the aggressiveness of warm air
advection across the Plains in the wake of surface high pressure and
in advance of the next upper disturbance. Carried some chances of
showers Tuesday night into Wednesday with aforementioned warm air
advection regime, but overall confidence on a particular scenario
remains low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1104 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR conditions expected through the TAF period until early Thursday
morning. Cloud deck in place will remain more or less stationary
until finally pushing eastward toward the end of the period. Gusty
NW winds will persist through Wednesday afternoon as ceilings
gradually improve overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 261714
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1114 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Today/Tonight: Forecast looks on track for the next 12 hours.
Currently, water vapor and radar imagery shows a well-defined
clipper system centered over western Iowa. With increasing ascent,
radar returns have blossomed over the past couple of hours, with
precipitation spreading into much of northwest Missouri and Iowa. As
anticipated, temperature profiles along the I-29 corridor have
yielded a mix of rain and snow, with surface observations reporting
light snow over much of Iowa stretching into north central Missouri.
Through mid-morning, portions of eastern Kansas and far western
Missouri should expect a rain-snow mix, whereas areas further east
in the cold air over north central and northeast Missouri should see
primarily snow. For areas in the colder air of north central and
northeast Missouri, total snowfall accumulations should average
between 0.5" to 1" of snow before noon. Little to no accumulation is
expected outside of those geographical areas, thanks in part to
relatively warm surface temperatures. As the upper disturbance moves
through the region, a suite of models suggest light precipitation
may redevelop late this morning into the afternoon over the eastern
half of the CWA. With slightly warmer air in the lowest couple
thousand feet by this afternoon along with some loss in ice
introduction in the cloud layer, higher uncertainty exists with
precipitation type, with a rain-snow mix the most likely scenario.
Regardless, little to no additional accumulation is anticipated upon
the exit of the initial wave of precipitation this morning.
Precipitation should quickly exit the forecast area by late this
afternoon or early evening, with some cloud cover thinning over
eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Lows tonight will be chilly,
with temperatures in the middle teens to middle 20s.

Thursday: One final shot of cold air is projected to move through
the region on Thursday as surface high pressure builds into the
region and the pesky longwave trough slowly shifts east.
Thanksgiving day will be chilly with highs in the upper 20s
northeast to near 40 southwestern CWA, with dry weather prevailing.
Lows Thursday night will fall into the 20s areawide.

Friday/Saturday: On Friday, weak upper ridging across the western
two-thirds of the CONUS will provide a large and fairly aggressive
warm air advection regime over much of the Great Plains, spreading
eastward. With surface high pressure sliding off to the east,
southerly winds will return early on Friday. The end result is a
quick warmup Friday into Saturday, with afternoon temperatures in
the upper 40s to upper 50s on Friday. The warmest day is expected on
Saturday with highs reaching the middle 50s to lower 60s across the
forecast area. Precipitation is not expected during this multi-day
period of warm weather, making for an optimal time for any outdoor
activities.

Extended: Models diverge on the speed of a cold front projected to
move through the area on Sunday. This will have potential affects on
forecast high temperatures. Currently went closer to the ECMWF
solution, but any slower trend may yield a slightly warmer day on
Sunday. Similar model challenges continue into early next week.
While Monday looks quite cold with below normal temperatures,
Tuesdays temperatures remain in question depending on the frontal
progression southward as well as the aggressiveness of warm air
advection across the Plains in the wake of surface high pressure and
in advance of the next upper disturbance. Carried some chances of
showers Tuesday night into Wednesday with aforementioned warm air
advection regime, but overall confidence on a particular scenario
remains low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1104 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR conditions expected through the TAF period until early Thursday
morning. Cloud deck in place will remain more or less stationary
until finally pushing eastward toward the end of the period. Gusty
NW winds will persist through Wednesday afternoon as ceilings
gradually improve overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Welsh






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