000
FXUS63 KLSX 211743
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1243 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

BACKED OFF ON POPS A LITTLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MO AS ATMOSPHERE IS STRUGGLING TO DESTABILIZE.
BECAUSE OF THIS...SPC HAS PUSHED SLIGHT RISK JUST SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA...BUT COULD STILL SEE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS FOR HIGHS...MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS...WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

BYRD
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FOCUS THRU THIS PERIOD WILL BE TSRA CHANCES.

SFC ANALYSIS AT 07Z DEPICTS THE EFFECTIVE SFC BNDY ACROSS WRN IA
INTO NWRN MO...THEN EXTENDING SWWD INTO ERN KS. BELIEVE THIS IS SOME
SORT OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF/DRY LINE AS IT APPEARS THE ACTUAL SFC FNT
IS STILL ACROSS ERN NEB INTO WRN KS. THIS TROF/DRY LINE SHUD MOVE
EWD RATHER SLOWLY TODAY.

A NUMBER OF QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT TODAY GIVEN THE SPREAD AMONG MDL
SOLNS. EXPECT ONGOING PRECIP TO GRADUALLY MOVE EWD OUT OF THE CWA
LATER THIS MORNING. BELIEVE ISOD TO SCT TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE TROF/DRY LINE. SETUP TODAY DOES NOT APPEAR AS
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...BELIEVE THE GFS/NAM ARE UNDERPLAYING THE EVENT TODAY AND
TONIGHT FOR THE CWA.

MDLS PROG CONVECTION OVER ARKLATEX REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVE LIFTING
NEWD TONIGHT INTO THE CWA. THIS TSRA WILL BE DRIVEN BY A VORT MAX
CURRENTLY OVER NRN NM/SRN CO REGION. MDLS TO SOME DEGREE...EXCEPT
FOR THE NAM...DEVELOP A SFC WAVE ALONG THE SFC TROF TONIGHT. THIS
LOW SHUD TRAVEL NEWD ALONG THE SFC TROF. THE ECMWF/LOCAL WRF HAVE A
MORE NWRN SOLN AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THESE MDLS HAVE A FAIRLY
GOOD HANDLE CURRENTLY ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. IF THIS SOLN
VERIFIES...THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED SHEAR AS WELL AS ALLOW
STEEPER LAPSE RATES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. GIVEN PROGD HODOGRAPHS
AND TIMING...BELIEVE TSRA WILL BE LINEAR BY THE TIME THEY ENTER THE
CWA.

IF THIS NRN SOLN IS CORRECT...THE DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

AS FOR TEMPS...TRENDED AOA WARMEST MOS FOR TODAY AND COOLER FOR
TONIGHT AS THE ACTUAL CDFNT FINALLY MOVES THRU THE AREA.

TILLY

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FOCUS STARTS TO SHIFT TO TEMPS AS PRECIP FINALLY MOVES E OF THE
AREA.

WITH FOCUS ON TODAY AND TONIGHT...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE PREV FORECAST AS MUCH OF IT STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. MDLS
ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE PERIOD WRT MASS FIELDS.

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TEMPS ON WED/THURS. MDLS SUGGEST TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70S. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT IT IS MAY...IF
ANY SUN MANAGES TO MAKE IT THRU THE CLOUDS...WUD BE SURPRISED IF
TEMPS DID NOT AT LEAST BRIEFLY REACH UPPER 70S OR INTO THE LOWER
80S. WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON SAT AND
BEYOND...TEMP FORECAST BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH DIFFERING
SOLNS AT THE SFC. FOR NOW...MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES...BUT BELIEVE
A TREND TWD THE GFS MAY BE NEEDED WITH A WARMER AND DRIER SOLN.

TILLY
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

DIURNAL CU AND CIRRUS SHIELD TO PERSIST OVER TAF SITES TODAY AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT. TIMING AND COVERAGE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT IS STILL
HARD TO PIN DOWN FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS ATMOSPHERE
IS STRUGGLING TO DESTABILIZE. FEEL THAT KCOU SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE...SOME STORMS POSSIBLE OVER METRO AREA AFTER 22Z AND
LINGER OVER AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. AS FOR KUIN...THEY
WILL BE ON NORTHERN FRINGES OF ACTIVITY AFTER 05Z...TAPERING OFF
BY 10Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DIMINISH TOWARDS
SUNSET...VEERING TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS WILL PICKUP TO NEAR 15KTS BY MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...DIURNAL CU AND CIRRUS SHIELD TO PERSIST OVER
METRO SITES TODAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. TIMING AND COVERAGE OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS STILL HARD TO PIN DOWN FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS ATMOSPHERE IS STRUGGLING TO DESTABILIZE. SOME STORMS
POSSIBLE OVER METRO AREA AFTER 22Z AND LINGER OVER AREA THROUGH
11Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DIMINISH TOWARDS
SUNSET...VEERING TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY 11Z
WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS WILL PICKUP TO NEAR 15KTS BY 17Z WEDNESDAY.

BYRD
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KEAX 211729
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1229 PM CDT Tue May 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

The main upper-level low is still spinning in the Upper Missouri
Valley but the cold front associated with the upper storm system may
almost be out of our forecast area by this afternoon. So the best
chances for storms looks to only be our southeastern zones. The NAM
hangs the front up this afternoon further north but even with the
slower NAM, the instability is very weak and shear is marginal at
best for storm organization. So any storms we do see are not expected
to become severe.

Outside of the small convective chances for our southeastern zones,
the forecast for today and tonight looks quiet. Cooler and drier air
will move into the region with highs in the low to mid 70s expected
across much of the area.

The persistent upper low will finally begin to move east but as it
does, may bring a small chance for showers and thunderstorms to
northern and northeastern Missouri. Being that it`s May, with surface
temperatures expected to be in the 60s across northern Missouri, and
the colder air aloft associated with the upper low moving closer to
the forecast area, some diurnally driven showers and few storms look
possible. Severe weather is not expected with this activity.

Quiet, comfortable weather is expected for Thursday as high pressure
builds into the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes area. This
will bring drier northeasterly winds to the area with highs in the
middle 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

Near to above normal temperatures and somewhat unsettled conditions
are expected through the long-range forecast period as a shallow
ridge builds over the eastern Plains and several shortwave troughs
ride over the ridge axis.

The first shortwave trough should push into the area by late Friday
or early Saturday, bringing scattered thunderstorms chances into the
forecast area for the end of the work week and into the weekend. The
best chance of precipitation should be Saturday as the main trough
axis moves through. A frontal boundary may linger across northern or
northeast portions of the region on Sunday and Monday, stretching
precipitation chances through the remainder of the weekend and into
early next week, but the overall chance of precipitation will be
much lower with this more subtle feature. Another shortwave trough
will head into the region late Monday and into Tuesday, which could
bring another round of showers and thunderstorms into the region for
the end of the forecast period.

Highs will start out in the lower to mid 70`s for Friday, then will
warm into the upper 70`s and into the 80`s by the end of the period
as the ridge strengthens across the region. Lows should also be a
few degrees above normal in the mid 60`s as a result of cloud cover
and precipitation around the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

VFR conditions are currently expected through this TAF cycle. Some
mid to low level clouds will impact the terminals early Wednesday
morning, but they currently look to stay just in the VFR range,
though later updates to the forecast might adjust this down.
Otherwise, southwest winds today will become light overnight, but will
quickly become gusty again after sunrise Wednesday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter

000
FXUS63 KSGF 211643
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1143 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

AFTER A ROUGH EVENING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI OZARKS...THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WAS RATHER UNEVENTFUL.
CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR
IN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS. THIS CONVECTION EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE MISSOURI OZARKS. THUS...WE HAVE ONLY SEEN A SPORADIC UPDRAFT OR
TWO DEVELOP.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S
WITH DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES COOLER. THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE
MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS REMAINS WORKED OVER FROM THE
EVENING CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT MUCAPE VALUES WERE GENERALLY AT OR
BELOW 1000 J/KG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

HEADING INTO TODAY...THAT COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY
PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST AS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY RIDES
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WE ARE ANTICIPATING ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
WEAKER TODAY...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES MAY APPROACH 50 KNOTS FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE LOWER
TODAY...WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY IN THE 400-900 J/KG RANGE. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS EVENING AS THERE IS
SOME INDICATION THAT SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY COULD
SNEAK ACROSS THE BORDER. A FEW STORMS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. THE GREATER SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION.

AS FOR HYDRO...WE HAVE CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT INTO THIS MORNING. AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI MAY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT THESE AREAS HAVE NOT RECEIVED NEARLY
THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AS OTHER PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS.
THUS...A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...ANOTHER WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE
MAIN RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OUT OF SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY WITH THAT PASSING FRONT.
THIS MAY OPEN THE DOOR TO SOME FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

MODELS THEN BRING A RATHER AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW THROUGH THE EASTERN CORN BELT DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY COME IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO TOUCH
OFF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI IN THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WE ARE MAINLY EXPECTING DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN BRING A SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES LATE THIS WEEK. DESPITE THE
RIDGING...THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR CONVECTION. FIRST
OFF...GLOBAL MODELS HINT AT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE EITHER FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. ANOTHER
ITEM WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR IS NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPMENT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO END
THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH
OF THE CWA WITH SOME CONVECTION AFFECTING THE BBG SITE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE HOWEVER
BEST PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST POINTS.
CLEARING SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE LATE AND MAY SEE SOME FOG
DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING AS THE CLEARING BEGINS.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SCHAUMANN
SHORT TERM...SCHAUMANN
LONG TERM...SCHAUMANN
AVIATION...LINDENBERG

000
FXUS63 KSGF 211131
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
631 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

AFTER A ROUGH EVENING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI OZARKS...THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WAS RATHER UNEVENTFUL.
CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR
IN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS. THIS CONVECTION EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE MISSOURI OZARKS. THUS...WE HAVE ONLY SEEN A SPORADIC UPDRAFT OR
TWO DEVELOP.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S
WITH DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES COOLER. THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE
MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS REMAINS WORKED OVER FROM THE
EVENING CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT MUCAPE VALUES WERE GENERALLY AT OR
BELOW 1000 J/KG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

HEADING INTO TODAY...THAT COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY
PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST AS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY RIDES
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WE ARE ANTICIPATING ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
WEAKER TODAY...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES MAY APPROACH 50 KNOTS FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE LOWER
TODAY...WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY IN THE 400-900 J/KG RANGE. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS EVENING AS THERE IS
SOME INDICATION THAT SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY COULD
SNEAK ACROSS THE BORDER. A FEW STORMS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. THE GREATER SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION.

AS FOR HYDRO...WE HAVE CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT INTO THIS MORNING. AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI MAY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT THESE AREAS HAVE NOT RECEIVED NEARLY
THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AS OTHER PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS.
THUS...A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...ANOTHER WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE
MAIN RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OUT OF SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY WITH THAT PASSING FRONT.
THIS MAY OPEN THE DOOR TO SOME FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

MODELS THEN BRING A RATHER AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW THROUGH THE EASTERN CORN BELT DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY COME IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO TOUCH
OFF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI IN THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WE ARE MAINLY EXPECTING DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN BRING A SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES LATE THIS WEEK. DESPITE THE
RIDGING...THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR CONVECTION. FIRST
OFF...GLOBAL MODELS HINT AT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE EITHER FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. ANOTHER
ITEM WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR IS NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPMENT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO END
THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL PICK UP AGAIN LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT SGF AND
BBG. THINK THE FRONT MAY BE JUST SOUTH ENOUGH AT JLN TO AVOID
WIDESPREAD TSRA COVERAGE AT THE FIELD...AND THUS WILL ONLY INCLUDE
VCTS FOR NOW. MVFR AND BRIEF DROPS TO IFR CAN BE EXPECTED IN ANY
TSRA.

WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND THEN EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS TONIGHT. FOG AND
STRATUS SEEM MOST LIKELY AT SGF AND BBG...WHERE TERRAIN EFFECTS
WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL. FOR NOW...JUST TOOK SGF TO MVFR AND
BBG TO IFR...BUT SOME POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR EVEN LOWER FLIGHT
CATEGORIES SHOULD FOG AND STRATUS BE MORE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SCHAUMANN
SHORT TERM...SCHAUMANN
LONG TERM...SCHAUMANN
AVIATION...BOXELL

000
FXUS63 KLSX 211129
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
629 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FOCUS THRU THIS PERIOD WILL BE TSRA CHANCES.

SFC ANALYSIS AT 07Z DEPICTS THE EFFECTIVE SFC BNDY ACROSS WRN IA
INTO NWRN MO...THEN EXTENDING SWWD INTO ERN KS. BELIEVE THIS IS SOME
SORT OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF/DRY LINE AS IT APPEARS THE ACTUAL SFC FNT
IS STILL ACROSS ERN NEB INTO WRN KS. THIS TROF/DRY LINE SHUD MOVE
EWD RATHER SLOWLY TODAY.

A NUMBER OF QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT TODAY GIVEN THE SPREAD AMONG MDL
SOLNS. EXPECT ONGOING PRECIP TO GRADUALLY MOVE EWD OUT OF THE CWA
LATER THIS MORNING. BELIEVE ISOD TO SCT TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE TROF/DRY LINE. SETUP TODAY DOES NOT APPEAR AS
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...BELIEVE THE GFS/NAM ARE UNDERPLAYING THE EVENT TODAY AND
TONIGHT FOR THE CWA.

MDLS PROG CONVECTION OVER ARKLATEX REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVE LIFTING
NEWD TONIGHT INTO THE CWA. THIS TSRA WILL BE DRIVEN BY A VORT MAX
CURRENTLY OVER NRN NM/SRN CO REGION. MDLS TO SOME DEGREE...EXCEPT
FOR THE NAM...DEVELOP A SFC WAVE ALONG THE SFC TROF TONIGHT. THIS
LOW SHUD TRAVEL NEWD ALONG THE SFC TROF. THE ECMWF/LOCAL WRF HAVE A
MORE NWRN SOLN AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THESE MDLS HAVE A FAIRLY
GOOD HANDLE CURRENTLY ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. IF THIS SOLN
VERIFIES...THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED SHEAR AS WELL AS ALLOW
STEEPER LAPSE RATES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. GIVEN PROGD HODOGRAPHS
AND TIMING...BELIEVE TSRA WILL BE LINEAR BY THE TIME THEY ENTER THE
CWA.

IF THIS NRN SOLN IS CORRECT...THE DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

AS FOR TEMPS...TRENDED AOA WARMEST MOS FOR TODAY AND COOLER FOR
TONIGHT AS THE ACTUAL CDFNT FINALLY MOVES THRU THE AREA.


TILLY

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FOCUS STARTS TO SHIFT TO TEMPS AS PRECIP FINALLY MOVES E OF THE
AREA.

WITH FOCUS ON TODAY AND TONIGHT...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE PREV FORECAST AS MUCH OF IT STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. MDLS
ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE PERIOD WRT MASS FIELDS.

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TEMPS ON WED/THURS. MDLS SUGGEST TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70S. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT IT IS MAY...IF
ANY SUN MANAGES TO MAKE IT THRU THE CLOUDS...WUD BE SURPRISED IF
TEMPS DID NOT AT LEAST BRIEFLY REACH UPPER 70S OR INTO THE LOWER
80S. WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON SAT AND
BEYOND...TEMP FORECAST BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH DIFFERING
SOLNS AT THE SFC. FOR NOW...MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES...BUT BELIEVE
A TREND TWD THE GFS MAY BE NEEDED WITH A WARMER AND DRIER SOLN.

TILLY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS
SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE CWA. NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. RAIN CHANCES TO FINALLY COME TO AN END
FOR TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH THINNING CLOUD COVER.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ONCE
AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KEAX 211044
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
544 AM CDT Tue May 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

The main upper-level low is still spinning in the Upper Missouri
Valley but the cold front associated with the upper storm system may
almost be out of our forecast area by this afternoon. So the best
chances for storms looks to only be our southeastern zones. The NAM
hangs the front up this afternoon further north but even with the
slower NAM, the instability is very weak and shear is marginal at
best for storm organization. So any storms we do see are not expected
to become severe.

Outside of the small convective chances for our southeastern zones,
the forecast for today and tonight looks quiet. Cooler and drier air
will move into the region with highs in the low to mid 70s expected
across much of the area.

The persistent upper low will finally begin to move east but as it
does, may bring a small chance for showers and thunderstorms to
northern and northeastern Missouri. Being that it`s May, with surface
temperatures expected to be in the 60s across northern Missouri, and
the colder air aloft associated with the upper low moving closer to
the forecast area, some diurnally driven showers and few storms look
possible. Severe weather is not expected with this activity.

Quiet, comfortable weather is expected for Thursday as high pressure
builds into the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes area. This
will bring drier northeasterly winds to the area with highs in the
middle 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

Near to above normal temperatures and somewhat unsettled conditions
are expected through the long-range forecast period as a shallow
ridge builds over the eastern Plains and several shortwave troughs
ride over the ridge axis.

The first shortwave trough should push into the area by late Friday
or early Saturday, bringing scattered thunderstorms chances into the
forecast area for the end of the work week and into the weekend. The
best chance of precipitation should be Saturday as the main trough
axis moves through. A frontal boundary may linger across northern or
northeast portions of the region on Sunday and Monday, stretching
precipitation chances through the remainder of the weekend and into
early next week, but the overall chance of precipitation will be
much lower with this more subtle feature. Another shortwave trough
will head into the region late Monday and into Tuesday, which could
bring another round of showers and thunderstorms into the region for
the end of the forecast period.

Highs will start out in the lower to mid 70`s for Friday, then will
warm into the upper 70`s and into the 80`s by the end of the period
as the ridge strengthens across the region. Lows should also be a
few degrees above normal in the mid 60`s as a result of cloud cover
and precipitation around the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 538 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will generally
be from the west through the period with winds increasing to 10-15 kt
range this afternoon. Winds will diminish around sunset. Lower
ceilings, though still VFR are expected to move into the region
tonight as the upper-low drifts southeastward. Lower ceilings,
possibly MVFR or lower, may move through northern Missouri by 12Z and
possibly further south, impacting the terminals after 12Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...CDB

000
FXUS63 KLSX 211028
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
528 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FOCUS THRU THIS PERIOD WILL BE TSRA CHANCES.

SFC ANALYSIS AT 07Z DEPICTS THE EFFECTIVE SFC BNDY ACROSS WRN IA
INTO NWRN MO...THEN EXTENDING SWWD INTO ERN KS. BELIEVE THIS IS SOME
SORT OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF/DRY LINE AS IT APPEARS THE ACTUAL SFC FNT
IS STILL ACROSS ERN NEB INTO WRN KS. THIS TROF/DRY LINE SHUD MOVE
EWD RATHER SLOWLY TODAY.

A NUMBER OF QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT TODAY GIVEN THE SPREAD AMONG MDL
SOLNS. EXPECT ONGOING PRECIP TO GRADUALLY MOVE EWD OUT OF THE CWA
LATER THIS MORNING. BELIEVE ISOD TO SCT TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE TROF/DRY LINE. SETUP TODAY DOES NOT APPEAR AS
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...BELIEVE THE GFS/NAM ARE UNDERPLAYING THE EVENT TODAY AND
TONIGHT FOR THE CWA.

MDLS PROG CONVECTION OVER ARKLATEX REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVE LIFTING
NEWD TONIGHT INTO THE CWA. THIS TSRA WILL BE DRIVEN BY A VORT MAX
CURRENTLY OVER NRN NM/SRN CO REGION. MDLS TO SOME DEGREE...EXCEPT
FOR THE NAM...DEVELOP A SFC WAVE ALONG THE SFC TROF TONIGHT. THIS
LOW SHUD TRAVEL NEWD ALONG THE SFC TROF. THE ECMWF/LOCAL WRF HAVE A
MORE NWRN SOLN AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THESE MDLS HAVE A FAIRLY
GOOD HANDLE CURRENTLY ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. IF THIS SOLN
VERIFIES...THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED SHEAR AS WELL AS ALLOW
STEEPER LAPSE RATES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. GIVEN PROGD HODOGRAPHS
AND TIMING...BELIEVE TSRA WILL BE LINEAR BY THE TIME THEY ENTER THE
CWA.

IF THIS NRN SOLN IS CORRECT...THE DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

AS FOR TEMPS...TRENDED AOA WARMEST MOS FOR TODAY AND COOLER FOR
TONIGHT AS THE ACTUAL CDFNT FINALLY MOVES THRU THE AREA.


TILLY

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FOCUS STARTS TO SHIFT TO TEMPS AS PRECIP FINALLY MOVES E OF THE
AREA.

WITH FOCUS ON TODAY AND TONIGHT...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE PREV FORECAST AS MUCH OF IT STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. MDLS
ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE PERIOD WRT MASS FIELDS.

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TEMPS ON WED/THURS. MDLS SUGGEST TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70S. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT IT IS MAY...IF
ANY SUN MANAGES TO MAKE IT THRU THE CLOUDS...WUD BE SURPRISED IF
TEMPS DID NOT AT LEAST BRIEFLY REACH UPPER 70S OR INTO THE LOWER
80S. WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON SAT AND
BEYOND...TEMP FORECAST BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH DIFFERING
SOLNS AT THE SFC. FOR NOW...MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES...BUT BELIEVE
A TREND TWD THE GFS MAY BE NEEDED WITH A WARMER AND DRIER SOLN.

TILLY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

ACTIVE/MOST INTENSE CONVECTION HAS BEEN RIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING OUR
CWA. HAVE CONTINUED SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE MOST INTENSE
CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS IN STL AREA AS ELEVATED PRECIP
CONTINUES TO PERCOLATE OVER S CENTRAL MO AND MOVE NE.  ITS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT RESDIUAL INSTABILITY AND INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT COULD REFIRE ELEVATED CONVECTION...BUT
FOR THE TIME BEING HAVE HELD STORMS OUT OF ALL TAFS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TAFS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY TREND TO VFR WITH CIGS AOA 8KFT...BUT WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO WATCH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STRATUS
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO TUESDAYS TRENDS...WITH THE REINTRODUCTION OF TSRA BY EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...CIGS AOA 8KFT SHOULD BE THE RULE DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS...WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGH 08Z. SHOULD SEE A BIT OF CU FORM BY MID MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS BY MID AFTERNOON.

TRUETT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KLSX 210849
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
349 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FOCUS THRU THIS PERIOD WILL BE TSRA CHANCES.

SFC ANALYSIS AT 07Z DEPICTS THE EFFECTIVE SFC BNDY ACROSS WRN IA
INTO NWRN MO...THEN EXTENDING SWWD INTO ERN KS. BELIEVE THIS IS SOME
SORT OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF/DRY LINE AS IT APPEARS THE ACTUAL SFC FNT
IS STILL ACROSS ERN NEB INTO WRN KS. THIS TROF/DRY LINE SHUD MOVE
EWD RATHER SLOWLY TODAY.

A NUMBER OF QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT TODAY GIVEN THE SPREAD AMONG MDL
SOLNS. EXPECT ONGOING PRECIP TO GRADUALLY MOVE EWD OUT OF THE CWA
LATER THIS MORNING. BELIEVE ISOD TO SCT TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE TROF/DRY LINE. SETUP TODAY DOES NOT APPEAR AS
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...BELIEVE THE GFS/NAM ARE UNDERPLAYING THE EVENT TODAY AND
TONIGHT FOR THE CWA.

MDLS PROG CONVECTION OVER ARKLATEX REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVE LIFTING
NEWD TONIGHT INTO THE CWA. THIS TSRA WILL BE DRIVEN BY A VORT MAX
CURRENTLY OVER NRN NM/SRN CO REGION. MDLS TO SOME DEGREE...EXCEPT
FOR THE NAM...DEVELOP A SFC WAVE ALONG THE SFC TROF TONIGHT. THIS
LOW SHUD TRAVEL NEWD ALONG THE SFC TROF. THE ECMWF/LOCAL WRF HAVE A
MORE NWRN SOLN AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THESE MDLS HAVE A FAIRLY
GOOD HANDLE CURRENTLY ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. IF THIS SOLN
VERIFIES...THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED SHEAR AS WELL AS ALLOW
STEEPER LAPSE RATES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. GIVEN PROGD HODOGRAPHS
AND TIMING...BELIEVE TSRA WILL BE LINEAR BY THE TIME THEY ENTER THE
CWA.

IF THIS NRN SOLN IS CORRECT...THE DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

AS FOR TEMPS...TRENDED AOA WARMEST MOS FOR TODAY AND COOLER FOR
TONIGHT AS THE ACTUAL CDFNT FINALLY MOVES THRU THE AREA.


TILLY

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE IMPACTS OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ARE HARD TO GAGE AND WILL
HAVE LARGE RAMIFICATIONS ON THE THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE THREAT
TUESDAY. ANY ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMNANT FROM OVERNIGHT
ARE LIKELY TO BE LOCATED ACROSS SE MO INTO SW IL DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE MORNING AND THEN WEAKEN. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT
WILL THEN REMAIN RELATIVELY VOID OF PRECIPITATION WELL INTO MID
AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME AIR MASS RECOVERY AS
CLOUDS THIN. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP SO OVERALL
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LESS THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS...HOWEVER IT SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SCATTERED ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON...RAMPING
UP IN COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING NEWD FROM EASTERN OK
REGION. ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE FURTHER FOCUS AND
ENHANCE THE SEVERE THREAT. THE LARGE SCALE TROF AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...PASSING
EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR AND COOLER
AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL USHER EVEN
COOLER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE AREA.

THE PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY WEAK NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER TROF AND LOOKS DRY THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...THEREAFTER
RETURN FLOW AND WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING THRU THE PLAINS UPPER
RIDGE AND INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY WILL BRING A RE-NEWED
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS....ESPECIALLY THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA.
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE RETURN FLOW.

GLASS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

ACTIVE/MOST INTENSE CONVECTION HAS BEEN RIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING OUR
CWA. HAVE CONTINUED SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE MOST INTENSE
CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS IN STL AREA AS ELEVATED PRECIP
CONTINUES TO PERCOLATE OVER S CENTRAL MO AND MOVE NE.  ITS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT RESDIUAL INSTABILITY AND INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT COULD REFIRE ELEVATED CONVECTION...BUT
FOR THE TIME BEING HAVE HELD STORMS OUT OF ALL TAFS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TAFS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY TREND TO VFR WITH CIGS AOA 8KFT...BUT WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO WATCH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STRATUS
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO TUESDAYS TRENDS...WITH THE REINTRODUCTION OF TSRA BY EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...CIGS AOA 8KFT SHOULD BE THE RULE DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS...WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGH 08Z. SHOULD SEE A BIT OF CU FORM BY MID MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS BY MID AFTERNOON.

TRUETT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SAINT LOUIS     85  62  79  57 /  70  80  20  10
QUINCY          80  58  72  54 /  40  40  20  10
COLUMBIA        80  56  73  54 /  40  40  10  10
JEFFERSON CITY  81  58  75  55 /  50  50  10  10
SALEM           84  64  79  57 /  70  80  40  10
FARMINGTON      81  61  78  56 /  70  80  20  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KSGF 210848
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
348 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

AFTER A ROUGH EVENING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI OZARKS...THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WAS RATHER UNEVENTFUL.
CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR
IN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS. THIS CONVECTION EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE MISSOURI OZARKS. THUS...WE HAVE ONLY SEEN A SPORADIC UPDRAFT OR
TWO DEVELOP.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S
WITH DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES COOLER. THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE
MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS REMAINS WORKED OVER FROM THE
EVENING CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT MUCAPE VALUES WERE GENERALLY AT OR
BELOW 1000 J/KG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

HEADING INTO TODAY...THAT COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY
PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST AS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY RIDES
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WE ARE ANTICIPATING ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
WEAKER TODAY...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES MAY APPROACH 50 KNOTS FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE LOWER
TODAY...WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY IN THE 400-900 J/KG RANGE. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS EVENING AS THERE IS
SOME INDICATION THAT SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY COULD
SNEAK ACROSS THE BORDER. A FEW STORMS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. THE GREATER SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION.

AS FOR HYDRO...WE HAVE CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT INTO THIS MORNING. AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI MAY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT THESE AREAS HAVE NOT RECEIVED NEARLY
THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AS OTHER PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS.
THUS...A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...ANOTHER WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE
MAIN RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OUT OF SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY WITH THAT PASSING FRONT.
THIS MAY OPEN THE DOOR TO SOME FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

MODELS THEN BRING A RATHER AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW THROUGH THE EASTERN CORN BELT DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY COME IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO TOUCH
OFF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI IN THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WE ARE MAINLY EXPECTING DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN BRING A SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES LATE THIS WEEK. DESPITE THE
RIDGING...THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR CONVECTION. FIRST
OFF...GLOBAL MODELS HINT AT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE EITHER FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. ANOTHER
ITEM WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR IS NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPMENT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO END
THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

WHILE A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE COVERED THIS WITH A TEMPO GROUP. WE
ARE THEN EXPECTING SOME LOW CLOUD AND AT LEAST LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. WE HAVE ALSO COVERED THIS WITH A TEMPO
GROUP TO IFR. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SCHAUMANN
SHORT TERM...SCHAUMANN
LONG TERM...SCHAUMANN
AVIATION...SCHAUMANN

000
FXUS63 KEAX 210808
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
308 AM CDT Tue May 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

The main upper-level low is still spinning in the Upper Missouri
Valley but the cold front associated with the upper storm system may
almost be out of our forecast area by this afternoon. So the best
chances for storms looks to only be our southeastern zones. The NAM
hangs the front up this afternoon further north but even with the
slower NAM, the instability is very weak and shear is marginal at
best for storm organization. So any storms we do see are not expected
to become severe.

Outside of the small convective chances for our southeastern zones,
the forecast for today and tonight looks quiet. Cooler and drier air
will move into the region with highs in the low to mid 70s expected
across much of the area.

The persistent upper low will finally begin to move east but as it
does, may bring a small chance for showers and thunderstorms to
northern and northeastern Missouri. Being that it`s May, with surface
temperatures expected to be in the 60s across northern Missouri, and
the colder air aloft associated with the upper low moving closer to
the forecast area, some diurnally driven showers and few storms look
possible. Severe weather is not expected with this activity.

Quiet, comfortable weather is expected for Thursday as high pressure
builds into the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes area. This
will bring drier northeasterly winds to the area with highs in the
middle 70s.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

Near to above normal temperatures and somewhat unsettled conditions
are expected through the long-range forecast period as a shallow
ridge builds over the eastern Plains and several shortwave troughs
ride over the ridge axis.

The first shortwave trough should push into the area by late Friday
or early Saturday, bringing scattered thunderstorms chances into the
forecast area for the end of the work week and into the weekend. The
best chance of precipitation should be Saturday as the main trough
axis moves through. A frontal boundary may linger across northern or
northeast portions of the region on Sunday and Monday, stretching
precipitation chances through the remainder of the weekend and into
early next week, but the overall chance of precipitation will be
much lower with this more subtle feature. Another shortwave trough
will head into the region late Monday and into Tuesday, which could
bring another round of showers and thunderstorms into the region for
the end of the forecast period.

Highs will start out in the lower to mid 70`s for Friday, then will
warm into the upper 70`s and into the 80`s by the end of the period
as the ridge strengthens across the region. Lows should also be a
few degrees above normal in the mid 60`s as a result of cloud cover
and precipitation around the area.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

VFR conditions are expected at the terminal through the entire valid
period. High level clouds from thunderstorms south of the region will
continue to move east and thin over western Missouri. There may be
some afternoon clouds around 5k ft build by noon or so but any
thunderstorm activity should well off to the east of the region.
Skies should become clear during the evening but there is chance that
lower clouds could move into northern Missouri associated with the
upper low over the northern Plains. The better chance of this
occurring looks after this valid period however, so have cleared
things out after 01Z or so.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...CDB

000
FXUS63 KLSX 210556
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1256 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

ALL SYSTEMS APPEAR GO FOR AN ACTIVE NIGHT OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS. THE AIR MASS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF MISSOURI HAS RECOVERED FROM EARLIER CONVECTION WITH SBCAPE
AOA 3000 J/KG AND THIS RECOVERY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN SEVERAL CONFLUENT ZONES ACROSS SW MO AND SE KS AND
ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
WITH DISCRETE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND THEN AN
OVERALL TREND FOR RAPID UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING
QLCS FEATURING A MIX MODE OF BOWING SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS. THIS QLCS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT A GOOD PORTION OF THE
CWA AS IT MOVES E/NW TONIGHT. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
OCCUR WHERE TRAINING OCCURS...BUT THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

GLASS

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE IMPACTS OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ARE HARD TO GAGE AND WILL
HAVE LARGE RAMIFICATIONS ON THE THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE THREAT
TUESDAY. ANY ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMNANT FROM OVERNIGHT
ARE LIKELY TO BE LOCATED ACROSS SE MO INTO SW IL DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE MORNING AND THEN WEAKEN. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT
WILL THEN REMAIN RELATIVELY VOID OF PRECIPITATION WELL INTO MID
AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME AIR MASS RECOVERY AS
CLOUDS THIN. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP SO OVERALL
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LESS THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS...HOWEVER IT SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SCATTERED ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON...RAMPING
UP IN COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING NEWD FROM EASTERN OK
REGION. ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE FURTHER FOCUS AND
ENHANCE THE SEVERE THREAT. THE LARGE SCALE TROF AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...PASSING
EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR AND COOLER
AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL USHER EVEN
COOLER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE AREA.

THE PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY WEAK NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER TROF AND LOOKS DRY THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...THEREAFTER
RETURN FLOW AND WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING THRU THE PLAINS UPPER
RIDGE AND INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY WILL BRING A RE-NEWED
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS....ESPECIALLY THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA.
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE RETURN FLOW.

GLASS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

ACTIVE/MOST INTENSE CONVECTION HAS BEEN RIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING OUR
CWA. HAVE CONTINUED SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE MOST INTENSE
CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS IN STL AREA AS ELEVATED PRECIP
CONTINUES TO PERCOLATE OVER S CENTRAL MO AND MOVE NE.  ITS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT RESDIUAL INSTABILITY AND INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT COULD REFIRE ELEVATED CONVECTION...BUT
FOR THE TIME BEING HAVE HELD STORMS OUT OF ALL TAFS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TAFS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY TREND TO VFR WITH CIGS AOA 8KFT...BUT WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO WATCH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STRATUS
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO TUESDAYS TRENDS...WITH THE REINTRODUCTION OF TSRA BY EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...CIGS AOA 8KFT SHOULD BE THE RULE DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS...WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGH 08Z. SHOULD SEE A BIT OF CU FORM BY MID MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS BY MID AFTERNOON.

TRUETT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KSGF 210529
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1229 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE MAIN HAZARD POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT WILL BE THAT OF FLASH
FLOODING. WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION FROM NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI AS A
LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON THE REGION. IF COVERAGE INCREASES AND
COLD POOLS CONGEAL...THE MCS WOULD DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST. THIS
SLOW SYSTEM MOTION WOULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. ONE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. IF
COVERAGE INCREASES DOWN THERE...IT MAY IMPEDE THE LOW LEVEL JET
AND SHIFT THE MAIN HEAVY RAINFALL RISK INTO OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.
WE HAVE TRIMMED THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
NOW...BUT WILL AWAIT CONVECTIVE TRENDS BEFORE MAKING ANY
ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS.

OTHERWISE...WE MAY STILL SEE A FEW ELEVATED HAILERS IF WE CAN GET
A BIT MORE ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE MAINLY
EXPECTING SUB-SEVERE HAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO
CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT FROM WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI DOWN TO CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE RESULTING IN THESE
STORMS BEING SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE.

CLOUD COVER HAS REMAINED OVER THE AREA ALL AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED IN THE 70S. THE CLEARING LINE IS
SURGING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY
JUMPING INTO THE 80S ONCE BEHIND THE CLEARING LINE. THE CLEARING LINE
WILL SURGE INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 80S. EXPECT THE STORMS ACROSS OKLAHOMA TO
TRACK NORTHEAST. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HEN EGGS AND TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONG TORNADO AGAIN IF THE CLOUDS CAN CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE 80 LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS POTENTIAL SEEMS TO GENERALLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 44 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65.

A LINE OF STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS TO 70 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE THERE WILL ALSO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR MESOVORTICES TORNADOES WITHIN ANY BOW SECTIONS
IN ANY LINE OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

MODELS SHOW A BOUNDARY SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI TONIGHT...AND
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT COULD SEE ROUND OF STORMS TRACK
OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

STORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE AREA WILL BE WORKED
OVER FROM TODAY AND TONIGHTS STORMS AND SHEAR WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP THERE
COULD BE A SEVERE HAIL RISK THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON
MAY 20 2013

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT THE ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WILL FINALLY KICK OFF TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL US
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCE
MAY RIDE THROUGH THE RIDGE AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

WHILE A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE COVERED THIS WITH A TEMPO GROUP. WE
ARE THEN EXPECTING SOME LOW CLOUD AND AT LEAST LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. WE HAVE ALSO COVERED THIS WITH A TEMPO
GROUP TO IFR. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ070-071-
     079>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ101.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...SCHAUMANN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...SCHAUMANN

000
FXUS63 KEAX 210522
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1222 AM CDT Tue May 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 311 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

Thunderstorm chances remain the focal point in the short term
portions of the forecast. Late this afternoon, convection was
beginning to blossom over southeastern Kansas and west Central
Missouri in response to a speed max rotating around the base of the
expansive upper trough.  MLCAPE values approaching 2000-3000 J/KG
have spread northeast across the KS/MO border. Initial convection
this afternoon appears to be rooted AOA 800 mb as a fairly
substantial EML persists around 850mb (as noted from 19Z aircraft
sounding from MCI). RAP/NAM soundings seem to be too aggressive in
eroding this EML this afternoon, perhaps due to the poor
initialization of mid-level moisture advection northward.
Nevertheless, these elevated supercells will continue for the
upcoming few hours with the potential for very large hail.  This
activity also is riding just north of a remnant outflow boundary
just south of the CWA, which if it can be forced northward, would
lead to a higher potential damaging winds isolated tornadoes should
storms begin to become rooted in the boundary layer. Storm
trajectories continue to push activity northeast and with flow aloft
rather unidirectional, training and flash flooding may become an
issue over the southern zones this evening.

Tonight, short term models have partially backed off on the
development of a broken line of convection over NE Kansas and NW
Missouri towards 00z as a secondary front begins to sweep into the
CWA. However, soundings continue to look favorable for severe
convection and given projected height falls, feel that this
convection may become more of a reality.

Tuesday: Secondary shortwave now beginning to rotate through Nevada
will lift northeast through southern Missouri on Tuesday. This
shortwave may produce renewed convection over the eastern CWA int
the afternoon, with severe chances primarily focused over eastern
and southeastern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM  CDT MON MAY 20 2013

Upper level trough will gradually lift northeastward into the
southern Great Lakes region by the end of the workweek. Thunderstorm
chances will decrease as this system moves out of the region...with
some lingering convection into Wednesday morning across northern
Missouri. Cooler weather will follow the out going system with high
temperatures remaining in the 70s and lows generally in the 50s.
Shortwave ridging will begin to build into the Central Plains by the
weekend bringing warmer temperatures with it. A series of shortwave
troughs moving along the ridge will result in the chance for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop towards the end of
the week along a frontal boundary that is forecast to set up across
the Kansas and Missouri.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

VFR conditions are expected at the terminal through the entire valid
period. High level clouds from thunderstorms south of the region will
continue to move east and thin over western Missouri. There may be
some afternoon clouds around 5k ft build by noon or so but any
thunderstorm activity should well off to the east of the region.
Skies should become clear during the evening but there is chance that
lower clouds could move into northern Missouri associated with the
upper low over the northern Plains. The better chance of this
occurring looks after this valid period however, so have cleared
things out after 01Z or so.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dux
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...CDB

000
FXUS63 KSGF 210234
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
934 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...SEVERE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN OZARKS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

LARGE QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PLOW EASTWARD
ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS. THIS LINE HAS PRODUCED CONSISTENT
REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 60 AND 70 MPH AS WELL AS TREE
DAMAGE AND ISOLATED POCKETS OF DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES.

EXPECTATIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT ARE FOR THIS LINE TO CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH THE SIGNIFICANT WIND RISK. PLENTY OF
MLCAPE/MUCAPE EXISTS AHEAD OF THIS LINE. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70
MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY BOWING SEGMENTS. 0-3KM
SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION SUPPORTS A TORNADO RISK WITH ANY SEGMENTS
THAT BOW OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.

ONCE AGAIN THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT REMAINS
QUITE THE CHALLENGE. THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST...THUS
SOME RECHARGING OF INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN
WORKED OVER ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT A RECHARGE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. GENERALLY SPEAKING...AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 60 CORRIDOR WILL BE PRONE TO SEEING
REDEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...THE EXISTING LINE WILL PIVOT AND
SLOW NEAR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. AS A RESULT...LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING RISK IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A FEW
FRISKY CELLS CAPABLE OF PENNY HAIL...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER RISK WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THIS MAIN LINE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO
CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT FROM WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI DOWN TO CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE RESULTING IN THESE
STORMS BEING SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE.

CLOUD COVER HAS REMAINED OVER THE AREA ALL AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED IN THE 70S. THE CLEARING LINE IS
SURGING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY
JUMPING INTO THE 80S ONCE BEHIND THE CLEARING LINE. THE CLEARING LINE
WILL SURGE INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 80S. EXPECT THE STORMS ACROSS OKLAHOMA TO
TRACK NORTHEAST. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HEN EGGS AND TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONG TORNADO AGAIN IF THE CLOUDS CAN CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE 80 LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS POTENTIAL SEEMS TO GENERALLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 44 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65.

A LINE OF STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS TO 70 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE THERE WILL ALSO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR MESOVORTICES TORNADOES WITHIN ANY BOW SECTIONS
IN ANY LINE OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

MODELS SHOW A BOUNDARY SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI TONIGHT...AND
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT COULD SEE ROUND OF STORMS TRACK
OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

STORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE AREA WILL BE WORKED
OVER FROM TODAY AND TONIGHTS STORMS AND SHEAR WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP THERE
COULD BE A SEVERE HAIL RISK THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON
MAY 20 2013

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT THE ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WILL FINALLY KICK OFF TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL US
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCE
MAY RIDE THROUGH THE RIDGE AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

A MVFR CLOUD DECK IS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD COVER AND EXPECT VFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW SHOWER OR STORMS
MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE BETTER POTENTIAL IS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS
INTO OF STORMS PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR
VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...GAGAN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

000
FXUS63 KEAX 210050
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
750 PM CDT Mon May 20 2013

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 749 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

Main line of convection is pushing east of the forecast area, and
tornado watch 190 has been canceled for all but a few counties
across central MO, and these will be cleared shortly.

Main front is just west of I-35 and is sparking a new line of
convection over IA and far northern MO. It`s still uncertain how far
south this line will build as the sun goes down and surface-based
inhibition begins to increase. Mesoscale model guidance is backing
off on convection developing southward along the front toward KC, so
it appears the window for any additional strong storm development may
be shrinking. However, if storms do develop, shear and instability
profiles will support strong to severe storms which could develop
into a line with large hail and damaging winds, mainly north of the
Missouri River. Odds of this happening seem to be about 30 percent or
less at this point.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 311 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

Thunderstorm chances remain the focal point in the short term
portions of the forecast. Late this afternoon, convection was
beginning to blossom over southeastern Kansas and west Central
Missouri in response to a speed max rotating around the base of the
expansive upper trough.  MLCAPE values approaching 2000-3000 J/KG
have spread northeast across the KS/MO border. Initial convection
this afternoon appears to be rooted AOA 800 mb as a fairly
substantial EML persists around 850mb (as noted from 19Z aircraft
sounding from MCI). RAP/NAM soundings seem to be too aggressive in
eroding this EML this afternoon, perhaps due to the poor
initialization of mid-level moisture advection northward.
Nevertheless, these elevated supercells will continue for the
upcoming few hours with the potential for very large hail.  This
activity also is riding just north of a remnant outflow boundary
just south of the CWA, which if it can be forced northward, would
lead to a higher potential damaging winds isolated tornadoes should
storms begin to become rooted in the boundary layer. Storm
trajectories continue to push activity northeast and with flow aloft
rather unidirectional, training and flash flooding may become an
issue over the southern zones this evening.

Tonight, short term models have partially backed off on the
development of a broken line of convection over NE Kansas and NW
Missouri towards 00z as a secondary front begins to sweep into the
CWA. However, soundings continue to look favorable for severe
convection and given projected height falls, feel that this
convection may become more of a reality.

Tuesday: Secondary shortwave now beginning to rotate through Nevada
will lift northeast through southern Missouri on Tuesday. This
shortwave may produce renewed convection over the eastern CWA int
the afternoon, with severe chances primarily focused over eastern
and southeastern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM  CDT MON MAY 20 2013

Upper level trough will gradually lift northeastward into the
southern Great Lakes region by the end of the workweek. Thunderstorm
chances will decrease as this system moves out of the region...with
some lingering convection into Wednesday morning across northern
Missouri. Cooler weather will follow the out going system with high
temperatures remaining in the 70s and lows generally in the 50s.
Shortwave ridging will begin to build into the Central Plains by the
weekend bringing warmer temperatures with it. A series of shortwave
troughs moving along the ridge will result in the chance for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop towards the end of
the week along a frontal boundary that is forecast to set up across
the Kansas and Missouri.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 557 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

Broken line of cumulus north of St. Joseph slowly becoming agitated
early this evening. General trends support the potential for minor
development north of St. Joseph, however feel that the KC terminals
will remain clear of additional convection.

Surface front remains just west of the state line at 6pm, and should
push eastward by 03Z. Into daybreak, expecting VFR conditions and a
west wind.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Hawblitzel
SHORT TERM...Dux
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...Dux

000
FXUS63 KSGF 202341
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
641 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...MESOSCALE DISCUSSION UPDATE ON SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING...


.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

SEVERE STORMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
WESTERN MISSOURI INTO NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS ARE
ARE DEVELOPING INTO LINE SEGMENTS.

LOW LEVEL SHEAR HAS INCREASED OVER THE AREA AS A LOW LEVEL JET HAS
INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER TODAY...THE
VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS STILL RESULTING IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AS ML-
CAPE VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF
THE STORMS. 0-1KM BULK SHEAR VALUES HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 25 TO 30KT
RANGE AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE INSTABILITY SUPPORTS A STRONG
DAMAGING WIND RISK WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 TO 80 MPH WITH ANY
BOWING SEGMENTS THAT DEVELOP WITH THE LINE SEGMENTS THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION TO THE STRAIGHT LINE WIND RISK 0-3KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
ARE 35 TO 45KT. ANY LINE SEGMENTS THAT BOW TO THE EAST TO
NORTHEAST WOULD SUPPORT BALANCE AND MESOVORTICES DEVELOPMENT AND
TORNADOES DEVELOPING WITHIN THE LINE SURGES THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO
CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT FROM WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI DOWN TO CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE RESULTING IN THESE
STORMS BEING SUPERCELLAUR IN NATURE.

CLOUD COVER HAS REMAINED OVER THE AREA ALL AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED IN THE 70S. THE CLEARING LINE IS
SURGING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY
JUMPING INTO THE 80S ONCE BEHIND THE CLEARING LINE. THE CLEARING LINE
WILL SURGE INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 80S. EXPECT THE STORMS ACROSS OKLAHOMA TO
TRACK NORTHEAST. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HEN EGGS AND TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONG TORNADO AGAIN IF THE CLOUDS CAN CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE 80 LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS POTENTIAL SEEMS TO GENERALLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 44 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65.

A LINE OF STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS TO 70 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE THERE WILL ALSO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR MESOVORTICES TORNADOES WITHIN ANY BOW SECTIONS
IN ANY LINE OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

MODELS SHOW A BOUNDARY SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI TONIGHT...AND
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT COULD SEE ROUND OF STORMS TRACK
OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

STORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE AREA WILL BE WORKED
OVER FROM TODAY AND TONIGHTS STORMS AND SHEAR WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP THERE
COULD BE A SEVERE HAIL RISK THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON
MAY 20 2013

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT THE ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WILL FINALLY KICK OFF TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL US
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCE
MAY RIDE THROUGH THE RIDGE AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

A MVFR CLOUD DECK IS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD COVER AND EXPECT VFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW SHOWER OR STORMS
MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE BETTER POTENTIAL IS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS
INTO OF STORMS PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR
VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...WISE
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

000
FXUS63 KEAX 202300
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
600 PM CDT Mon May 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 311 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

Thunderstorm chances remain the focal point in the short term
portions of the forecast. Late this afternoon, convection was
beginning to blossom over southeastern Kansas and west Central
Missouri in response to a speed max rotating around the base of the
expansive upper trough.  MLCAPE values approaching 2000-3000 J/KG
have spread northeast across the KS/MO border. Initial convection
this afternoon appears to be rooted AOA 800 mb as a fairly
substantial EML persists around 850mb (as noted from 19Z aircraft
sounding from MCI). RAP/NAM soundings seem to be too aggressive in
eroding this EML this afternoon, perhaps due to the poor
initialization of mid-level moisture advection northward.
Nevertheless, these elevated supercells will continue for the
upcoming few hours with the potential for very large hail.  This
activity also is riding just north of a remnant outflow boundary
just south of the CWA, which if it can be forced northward, would
lead to a higher potential damaging winds isolated tornadoes should
storms begin to become rooted in the boundary layer. Storm
trajectories continue to push activity northeast and with flow aloft
rather unidirectional, training and flash flooding may become an
issue over the southern zones this evening.

Tonight, short term models have partially backed off on the
development of a broken line of convection over NE Kansas and NW
Missouri towards 00z as a secondary front begins to sweep into the
CWA. However, soundings continue to look favorable for severe
convection and given projected height falls, feel that this
convection may become more of a reality.

Tuesday: Secondary shortwave now beginning to rotate through Nevada
will lift northeast through southern Missouri on Tuesday. This
shortwave may produce renewed convection over the eastern CWA int
the afternoon, with severe chances primarily focused over eastern
and southeastern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM  CDT MON MAY 20 2013

Upper level trough will gradually lift northeastward into the
southern Great Lakes region by the end of the workweek. Thunderstorm
chances will decrease as this system moves out of the region...with
some lingering convection into Wednesday morning across northern
Missouri. Cooler weather will follow the out going system with high
temperatures remaining in the 70s and lows generally in the 50s.
Shortwave ridging will begin to build into the Central Plains by the
weekend bringing warmer temperatures with it. A series of shortwave
troughs moving along the ridge will result in the chance for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop towards the end of
the week along a frontal boundary that is forecast to set up across
the Kansas and Missouri.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 557 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

Broken line of cumulus north of St. Joseph slowly becoming agitated
early this evening. General trends support the potential for minor
development north of St. Joseph, however feel that the KC terminals
will remain clear of additional convection.

Surface front remains just west of the state line at 6pm, and should
push eastward by 03Z. Into daybreak, expecting VFR conditions and a
west wind.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dux
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...Dux

000
FXUS63 KSGF 202057
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
357 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE INGREDIENTS NECESSARY FOR AN EPISODE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE COMING TOGETHER OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
OZARKS.

DATA UP TO 400MB FROM AN 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING HAS BEEN
ANALYZED...AND CONFIRMS THAT THE OZARKS AIRMASS IS QUITE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE.

ZERO CAPE BELOW 3 KM WAS MEASURED ON THE SPECIAL SOUNDING...BUT
THIS COULD CHANGE WITH TIME...AS PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS PARTIAL CLEARING CAN BE SEEN OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. OBSERVATIONS AROUND
TULSA SHOWED TEMPERATURES SPIKING INTO THE LOWER 80S ONCE THIS
CLEARING TOOK PLACE. GOOD LOW LEVEL CAPE WOULD EVOLVE IF
TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI CAN WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S.

BOTH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR
TORNADOES. HOWEVER...THE 18Z SOUNDING SHOWED A CRITICAL ANGLE OF
AROUND 75 TO 80 DEGREES. IF SURFACE WINDS CAN BACK MORE TO THE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST...THIS WOULD CREATE A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR
STREAM WISE VORTICITY INTO FUTURE UPDRAFTS...INCREASING THE RISK FOR
TORNADOES.

WITH DECENT NORMALIZED CAPE WITHIN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ROTATING UPDRAFT.
ANY ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP
TO 70 MPH.

ITS GOING TO BE A BUSY AFTERNOON / EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO
CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT FROM WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI DOWN TO CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE RESULTING IN THESE
STORMS BEING SUPERCELLAUR IN NATURE.

CLOUD COVER HAS REMAINED OVER THE AREA ALL AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED IN THE 70S. THE CLEARING LINE IS
SURGING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY
JUMPING INTO THE 80S ONCE BEHIND THE CLEARING LINE. THE CLEARING LINE
WILL SURGE INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 80S. EXPECT THE STORMS ACROSS OKLAHOMA TO
TRACK NORTHEAST. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HEN EGGS AND TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONG TORNADO AGAIN IF THE CLOUDS CAN CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE 80 LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS POTENTIAL SEEMS TO GENERALLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 44 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65.

A LINE OF STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS TO 70 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE THERE WILL ALSO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR MESOVORTICES TORNADOES WITHIN ANY BOW SECTIONS
IN ANY LINE OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

MODELS SHOW A BOUNDARY SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI TONIGHT...AND
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT COULD SEE ROUND OF STORMS TRACK
OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

STORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE AREA WILL BE WORKED
OVER FROM TODAY AND TONIGHTS STORMS AND SHEAR WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP THERE
COULD BE A SEVERE HAIL RISK THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON
MAY 20 2013

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT THE ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WILL FINALLY KICK OFF TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL US
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCE
MAY RIDE THROUGH THE RIDGE AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

A MVFR CLOUD DECK IS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD COVER AND EXPECT VFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW SHOWER OR STORMS
MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE BETTER POTENTIAL IS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS
INTO OF STORMS PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR
VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...CRAMER
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

000
FXUS63 KLSX 202052
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
352 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

ALL SYSTEMS APPEAR GO FOR AN ACTIVE NIGHT OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS. THE AIR MASS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF MISSOURI HAS RECOVERED FROM EARLIER CONVECTION WITH SBCAPE
AOA 3000 J/KG AND THIS RECOVERY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN SEVERAL CONFLUENT ZONES ACROSS SW MO AND SE KS AND
ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
WITH DISCRETE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND THEN AN
OVERALL TREND FOR RAPID UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING
QLCS FEATURING A MIX MODE OF BOWING SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS. THIS QLCS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT A GOOD PORTION OF THE
CWA AS IT MOVES E/NW TONIGHT. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
OCCUR WHERE TRAINING OCCURS...BUT THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

GLASS

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE IMPACTS OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ARE HARD TO GAGE AND WILL
HAVE LARGE RAMIFICATIONS ON THE THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE THREAT
TUESDAY. ANY ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMNANT FROM OVERNIGHT
ARE LIKELY TO BE LOCATED ACROSS SE MO INTO SW IL DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE MORNING AND THEN WEAKEN. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT
WILL THEN REMAIN RELATIVELY VOID OF PRECIPITATION WELL INTO MID
AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME AIR MASS RECOVERY AS
CLOUDS THIN. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP SO OVERALL
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LESS THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS...HOWEVER IT SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SCATTERED ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON...RAMPING
UP IN COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING NEWD FROM EASTERN OK
REGION. ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE FURTHER FOCUS AND
ENHANCE THE SEVERE THREAT. THE LARGE SCALE TROF AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...PASSING
EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR AND COOLER
AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL USHER EVEN
COOLER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE AREA.

THE PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY WEAK NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER TROF AND LOOKS DRY THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...THEREAFTER
RETURN FLOW AND WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING THRU THE PLAINS UPPER
RIDGE AND INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY WILL BRING A RE-NEWED
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS....ESPECIALLY THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA.
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE RETURN FLOW.

GLASS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

STILL HARD TO PIN DOWN EXACT COVERAGE AND TIMING OF STORMS...SO
KEPT VCTS MENTION AT KCOU THROUGH 03Z TUESDAY AND THROUGH 04Z
TUESDAY AT KUIN. FURTHER EAST OVER STL METRO AREA...HRRR MODEL
INDICATING STORMS TO NOT MOVE IN TIL AFTER 01Z TUESDAY...MAYBE
EVEN LATER...BUT KEPT VCTS MENTION AFTER 01Z TUESDAY FOR
NOW...TAPERING OFF AFTER 07Z TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS AND
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...STILL HARD TO PIN DOWN EXACT COVERAGE AND
TIMING OF STORMS...LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATING STORMS TO NOT MOVE
IN TIL AFTER 04Z TUESDAY...MAYBE EVEN LATER...BUT KEPT VCTS
MENTION AFTER 01Z TUESDAY FOR NOW AS WE COULD SEE STUFF FIRE UP
AHEAD OF MAIN ACTIVITY. STORMS TO TAPER OFF AFTER 07Z TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z TUESDAY...SO ADDED VCTS MENTION DURING
THIS PERIOD.

BYRD

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KEAX 202014
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
314 PM CDT Mon May 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 311 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

Thunderstorm chances remain the focal point in the short term
portions of the forecast. Late this afternoon, convection was
beginning to blossom over southeastern Kansas and west Central
Missouri in response to a speed max rotating around the base of the
expansive upper trough.  MLCAPE values approaching 2000-3000 J/KG
have spread northeast across the KS/MO border. Initial convection
this afternoon appears to be rooted AOA 800 mb as a fairly
substantial EML persists around 850mb (as noted from 19Z aircraft
sounding from MCI). RAP/NAM soundings seem to be too aggressive in
eroding this EML this afternoon, perhaps due to the poor
initialization of mid-level moisture advection northward.
Nevertheless, these elevated supercells will continue for the
upcoming few hours with the potential for very large hail.  This
activity also is riding just north of a remnant outflow boundary
just south of the CWA, which if it can be forced northward, would
lead to a higher potential damaging winds isolated tornadoes should
storms begin to become rooted in the boundary layer. Storm
trajectories continue to push activity northeast and with flow aloft
rather unidirectional, training and flash flooding may become an
issue over the southern zones this evening.

Tonight, short term models have partially backed off on the
development of a broken line of convection over NE Kansas and NW
Missouri towards 00z as a secondary front begins to sweep into the
CWA. However, soundings continue to look favorable for severe
convection and given projected height falls, feel that this
convection may become more of a reality.

Tuesday: Secondary shortwave now beginning to rotate through Nevada
will lift northeast through southern Missouri on Tuesday. This
shortwave may produce renewed convection over the eastern CWA int
the afternoon, with severe chances primarily focused over eastern
and southeastern Missouri.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM  CDT MON MAY 20 2013

Upper level trough will gradually lift northeastward into the
southern Great Lakes region by the end of the workweek. Thunderstorm
chances will decrease as this system moves out of the region...with
some lingering convection into Wednesday morning across northern
Missouri. Cooler weather will follow the out going system with high
temperatures remaining in the 70s and lows generally in the 50s.
Shortwave ridging will begin to build into the Central Plains by the
weekend bringing warmer temperatures with it. A series of shortwave
troughs moving along the ridge will result in the chance for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop towards the end of
the week along a frontal boundary that is forecast to set up across
the Kansas and Missouri.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

A rather messy afternoon forecast continues for convective chances
near the major terminals. Several outflow boundaries linger over the
CWA, with the one with the highest potential developing convection
stretching from Fort Scott eastward to Columbia. Further north, a
secondary elevated boundary continues to lift through northern
Missouri and Kansas, and as we continually destabilize this
afternoon, it too may become a focus for scattered convection.

Will also need to watch the true cold front entering NW Missouri
later today. For now, unable to pinpoint an exact time or location
for convective development in relationship to the terminals, and will
continue to advertise VCTS through the evening.

Quiet conditions do return after midnight, with VFR prevailing.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dux
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...Dux

000
FXUS63 KSGF 201923
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
223 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

THE INGREDIENTS NECESSARY FOR AN EPISODE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE COMING TOGETHER OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
OZARKS.

DATA UP TO 400MB FROM AN 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING HAS BEEN
ANALYZED...AND CONFIRMS THAT THE OZARKS AIRMASS IS QUITE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE.

ZERO CAPE BELOW 3 KM WAS MEASURED ON THE SPECIAL SOUNDING...BUT
THIS COULD CHANGE WITH TIME...AS PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS PARTIAL CLEARING CAN BE SEEN OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. OBSERVATIONS AROUND
TULSA SHOWED TEMPERATURES SPIKING INTO THE LOWER 80S ONCE THIS
CLEARING TOOK PLACE. GOOD LOW LEVEL CAPE WOULD EVOLVE IF
TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI CAN WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S.

BOTH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR
TORNADOES. HOWEVER...THE 18Z SOUNDING SHOWED A CRITICAL ANGLE OF
AROUND 75 TO 80 DEGREES. IF SURFACE WINDS CAN BACK MORE TO THE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST...THIS WOULD CREATE A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR
STREAM WISE VORTICITY INTO FUTURE UPDRAFTS...INCREASING THE RISK FOR
TORNADOES.

WITH DECENT NORMALIZED CAPE WITHIN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ROTATING UPDRAFT.
ANY ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP
TO 70 MPH.

ITS GOING TO BE A BUSY AFTERNOON / EVENING.

CRAMER

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

ON GOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING REMAINED THE FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST.

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OZARKS THIS MORNING WILL BRING
A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND
THE OZARKS AS STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATION
THROUGH SUNRISE. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR CONVECTION MAY REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING THOUGH SOME CLEARING SHOULD
OCCUR LATE IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS ANOTHER JET MAX SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE AGAIN...NEGATIVELY TILTING SYSTEM. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH A SLOWLY VEERING LOW LEVEL JET TO ALLOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR QUICKLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AS THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE OZARKS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT ONCE AGAIN FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ONE CONCERN WILL BE THE
DRY LINE. IT HAS CURRENTLY RETREATED FAIRLY FAR WEST OVER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. WHERE THE STORMS INITIALLY DEVELOP...LIKELY AS
SUPERCELLS ONCE AGAIN...WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR EAST THE DRY LINE
MAKES IT BEFORE THE DEEP LIFT FROM THE JET STREAK AND LOW LEVEL
JET MOVES OVER THE REGION. STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR WEST AS
WICHITA TO TULSA TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE MISSOURI AND KANSAS STATE
LINE. THIS WILL HAVE ENORMOUS CONSEQUENCES IN WHAT TYPE OF SEVERE
WEATHER THE OZARKS WILL EXPERIENCE. SOME SHORT TERM ANN LOCAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS DEVELOP FARTHER WEST AND MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION AS A QLCS OR SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED
MESOVORTICES. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT A WEAK TO MODERATE CAP
HOLDS THE STORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER EAST WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT
SUPERCELLS MAY BE THE INITIAL MODE.

ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE
NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM TONIGHT CONVECTION. THIS
ALSO INCLUDES THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY THAT STORMS ARE MOVING ALONG
THIS MORNING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE STORMS WILL ULTIMATELY BEGIN
TO TRAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF TRAINING
SUPERCELLS OR HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. IN EITHER CASE...THE STORMS WILL BE WORKING WITH A
VERY MOIST AIR MASS AGAIN MONDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STORMS MOVING
OVER THE SAME AREAS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ACROSS THE
OZARKS. THIS LOOKS TO REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 44
CORRIDOR.

DESPITE THE TYPE OF STORMS OR THE MODE IN WHICH THEY MOVE OVER THE
REGION...THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...FLOODING RAINS...AND TORNADOES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

FOR TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY. THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN LOOKS TO BE
FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44...BUT WITH THE DIFFERING
MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS
THE ALL OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS
CONVECTION WOULD BE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO ADDITIONAL
FLOODING AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAINS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BE ON THE MOVE TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS DO CONTINUE TO INDICATED SEVERAL
SHORT WAVES MOVING OVER THE RIDGE WITH A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

A MVFR CLOUD DECK IS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD COVER AND EXPECT VFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW SHOWER OR STORMS
MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE BETTER POTENTIAL IS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS
INTO OF STORMS PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR
VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...CRAMER
SHORT TERM...HATCH
LONG TERM...HATCH
AVIATION...WISE

000
FXUS63 KLSX 201812
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
112 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

TORNADO WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MO...SO UPDATED
ZONES/GRIDS FOR THIS. MORNING ACTIVITY FINALLY EXITING FAR
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. TIMING OF NEXT ROUND TO BE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL MO AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT...TEMPERATURES ARE FINALLY
RECOVERING WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...THOUGH UPPER 70S EXPECTED FAR
NORTH DUE TO EXITING STORMS/CLOUDS.

BYRD
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

MORNING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD THRU THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY DO NOT ANTICIPATE OUTFLOW FROM THIS
CONVECTION IMPACTING THE CWA LATER TODAY AS IT SHUD CONTINUE WELL
OUTSIDE OF THE CWA.

THE CDFNT CURRENTLY OVER ERN KS WILL MOVE EWD TODAY AND SHUD BE
JUST W OF THE CWA AROUND NOON. WITH THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR...EXPECT AREA TO RECOVER WELL WITH AMPLE INSOLATION.
MDL SOLNS DIFFER REGARDING EXACTLY HOW TSRA WILL UNFOLD TODAY.
CONVECTION ALLOWING MDLS SUGGEST FOCUS WILL BE SW OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVE WITH THIS LINE MOVING NEWD INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. THE OPR MDLS SUGGEST TSRA WILL DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE
CWA LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. INTERESTINGLY...THE
LOCAL 4KM WRF PROVIDES A MERGER OF THESE TWO SOLNS...WHICH SEEMS
THE MOST LIKELY. WHILE TIMING REMAINS A QUESTION...WHAT DOES FORM
SHUD EVOLVE UPSCALE INTO A LINEAR MODE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. TSRA SHUD BE ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE TUES.

LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO TEMPS...KEEPING THE FORECAST AOA THE
WARMEST MOS.

TILLY

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

CURRENT INDICATIONS BASED ON THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS IS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING FROM THE OVERNIGHT
MCS SHOULD BE IN A DRASTICALLY WEAKENED STATE AT DAYBREAK. GIVEN THAT THE
PRIMARY SHORT WAVE TROF WILL HAVE ALREADY ROTATED NEWD INTO IOWA
AND A VEERED WSWLY LLJ...ANY REMAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOST LIKELY BE LOCATED FROM SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL IL ACROSS
SE MO. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MORNING AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY AND GIVEN THE
TENDENCY TOWARDS CUMULIFORM CLOUDS...GOOD HEATING WILL COMMENCE.
THIS HEATING COMBINED WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY
AND WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY MID
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOA 40 KTS WOULD FAVOR
DISCRETE TO SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AS THE DOMINATE STORM MODE
INITIALLY. AT THIS WE ARE EXPECTING A FAVORED WSW-ENE CORRIDOR
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 21Z FROM AROUND JEFFERSON CITY TO
BOWLING GREEN...ALTHO THIS AXIS COULD BE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
DEPENDING ON ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES. MERGERS AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS ZONE AND UPSTREAM SHOULD RESULT IN A MIX
OF STORM MODES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
STORMS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE SPREADS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INTO THE REGION...ALSO
CONTRIBUTING TO UPSCALE STORM GROWTH. THERE EVENTUALLY COULD BE A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT FROM CENTRAL THROUGH EAST CENTRAL MO DUE TO
PERSISTENT AND TRAINING CONVECTION...BUT THE EXACT LOCATION IS TOO
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS POINT.

THE CONVECTIVE DETAILS BECOME LESS DEFINED ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR RESIDUAL SHOWERS/STORMS FROM MONDAY NIGHT AND THE
PRESENCE OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FEATURING THE UPPER TROF PROGRESSING EASTWARD WITH THE ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT MOVING THRU THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
WOULD FAVOR HIGH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...ESPECIALLY THE SE HALF OF
THE CWA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS AND WEAK-MODERATE INSTABILITY
WOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR ORGANIZED-MIXED MODE SEVERE STORMS.

THE BOUNDARY FINALLY LOOKS TO PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY. THE PATTERN
THEN IS DOMINATED BY WEAK NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROF
AND LOOKS DRY THURSDAY NIGHT-SAT MORNING. THEREAFTER RETURN FLOW AND
WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING THRU THE PLAINS UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY WILL BRING A RE-NEWED CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS....ESPECIALLY THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA.

GLASS
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

STILL HARD TO PIN DOWN EXACT COVERAGE AND TIMING OF STORMS...SO
KEPT VCTS MENTION AT KCOU THROUGH 03Z TUESDAY AND THROUGH 04Z
TUESDAY AT KUIN. FURTHER EAST OVER STL METRO AREA...HRRR MODEL
INDICATING STORMS TO NOT MOVE IN TIL AFTER 01Z TUESDAY...MAYBE
EVEN LATER...BUT KEPT VCTS MENTION AFTER 01Z TUESDAY FOR
NOW...TAPERING OFF AFTER 07Z TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS AND
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...STILL HARD TO PIN DOWN EXACT COVERAGE AND
TIMING OF STORMS...LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATING STORMS TO NOT MOVE
IN TIL AFTER 04Z TUESDAY...MAYBE EVEN LATER...BUT KEPT VCTS
MENTION AFTER 01Z TUESDAY FOR NOW AS WE COULD SEE STUFF FIRE UP
AHEAD OF MAIN ACTIVITY. STORMS TO TAPER OFF AFTER 07Z TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z TUESDAY...SO ADDED VCTS MENTION DURING
THIS PERIOD.

BYRD
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KEAX 201803
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
103 PM CDT Mon May 20 2013

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

Southern portions of the CWA are slowly beginning to destabilize this
afternoon, primarily along a stalled remnant convective boundary from
Ft. Scott to Columbia which has been reinforced by a developing MCV
in eastern Missouri. Weak convective initiation has developed over
southeastern Kansas along this boundary, but weak capping is still
preventing this convection from growing upscale.

Further north, weak elevated boundary on the nose of a surge of
higher instability has reached the KC metro. As inhibition is
weakened within the upcoming 1-2 hours convection should begin to
grow more upscale in southeastern Kansas along this boundary, with
prevailing flow taking this precip northeastward into the
southwestern portions of the CWA. The most uncertain portion of the
forecast remains with the eventual evolution of this outflow in it`s
efforts to lift northward, which if it doesn`t lift northward will
lead to more of a wind/hail threat as opposed to tornadic threat
especially over the northern portions of the current watch. In
actuality, the tornadic threat may be significantly higher over
southeastern KS and southern MO especially toward the 00Z timeframe,
but the conditional threat northward can`t be discounted.

Further east, significant stabilization may prevent strong convection
from expanding into mid-Missouri for several hours. Later this aftn
and evening, still appears likely that scattered convection will be
triggered along advancing secondary cold front over Nebraska and
north central Kansas with steep mid-level lapse rates suggesting a
large hail threat and parallel flow producing bowing segments.



&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

For today and tonight, ongoing convection in southern Missouri and
Kansas is spreading cloud cover over the region this morning. This
cloud cover should move away and/or dissipate by late this morning
leading to a good recovery in instability for afternoon/evening
convection. The main question is where any boundary, either synoptic
or outflow, will be to initiate convection. That said, convection
looks to develop along the front which is forecast to be sliding
into northwestern Missouri by this afternoon. Convection could also
develop on any residual outflow boundaries by this afternoon but
with such a mess of a surface pattern right now it is difficult to
know where they may be by this afternoon. Models show winds to be
veered ahead of the main front which will limit the tornado
potential. Although surface winds could be backed some in the
vicinity of any outflow boundary locally enhancing the risk. Shear
will be ample enough for storm organization and likely supercell
structures so near-term mesoanalysis will again be crucial this
afternoon to locate any enhanced tornado risk area along any boundary.
Otherwise, the biggest threats look to be from large hail and
damaging winds. With the shear vectors oriented nearly parallel to
the boundary and winds nearly unidirectional, storms may more quickly
evolve into bowing segments or a convective system, thus enhancing
the wind threat. This orientation may also lead to a localized heavy
rain and flooding threat, particularly if storms train along our
southern counties where heavy rains fell tonight.

For Tuesday, there will remain a chance for storms as the main upper
trough/low continues to send embedded impulses through the region.
Moisture and instability may be enough so that afternoon storms can
not be ruled out at this time. But with winds continuing to be veered
there will be limited convergence along any boundary and thus a more
limited severe threat.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

Tuesday night into Sunday...The cold front will push through the
remainder of the CWA Tuesday night, with only lingering chances for
thunderstorms across central Missouri. The upper low will begin to
move east of the area Wednesday into Thursday with the surface cold
front becoming stationary along the Interstate 40 corridor in OK and
AR. High pressure will build into the western Great Lakes region
with mainly dry and cooler weather expected Wednesday night into
Thursday. The western portion of the surface front will begin
lifting back northward across the Central Plains by the end of the
work week. A chance of thunderstorms will be possible across the
southwestern sections of the CWA Friday into the weekend, closest to
the frontal boundary and better instability. A weak upper level
ridge will develop over the central CONUS by the weekend with a few
upper waves rounding the ridge, resulting in a chance for convection
across portions of the CWA. As for temperatures, readings will be
slightly below normal for the Wednesday through Friday before
returning to near normal levels for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

A rather messy afternoon forecast continues for convective chances
near the major terminals. Several outflow boundaries linger over the
CWA, with the one with the highest potential developing convection
stretching from Fort Scott eastward to Columbia. Further north, a
secondary elevated boundary continues to lift through northern
Missouri and Kansas, and as we continually destabilize this
afternoon, it too may become a focus for scattered convection.

Will also need to watch the true cold front entering NW Missouri
later today. For now, unable to pinpoint an exact time or location
for convective development in relationship to the terminals, and will
continue to advertise VCTS through the evening.

Quiet conditions do return after midnight, with VFR prevailing.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Dux
SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Dux

000
FXUS63 KSGF 201755
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1255 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

CLOUDY SKIES ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING AFTER LAST NIGHTS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL OCCURRING JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA THOUGH A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO MAY CLIP THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.

UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOCATED ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM EASTERN IOWA
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. CLOUDY
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO MUCH
FOR THE AREA. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING AND EXPECT THE
CLEARING TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.

A NUMBER OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND THIS
MORNING ARE LAID OUT ACROSS THE REGION. WHEN SKIES CLEAR AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES ITS POSSIBLE A FEW STORMS COULD TRY TO
DEVELOP ON THESE BOUNDARIES.

THE MAIN DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CLOUD ARE
CLEARING HERE AND INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND
THERE WILL BE A LARGE HAIL RISK WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT TRACK
INTO THE REGION. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH SUPERCELLS IS GOING
TO DEPEND ON IF THE CLOUDS CLEAR AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
INCREASES. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI...WHICH ALSO WAS NOT REALLY AFFECTED BY LAST NIGHTS
STORMS. THESE AREAS ARE ALSO WHERE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MOST LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY DEVELOP THIS MORNING...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR.

A LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY AGAIN FORM TONIGHT TO OUR SOUTHWEST
AND WILL RACE ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG WINDS WOULD BE LIKELY WITH
ANY LINE THAT CAN DEVELOP WITH MU-CAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG WILL
BE IN PLACE. 0-3KM SHEAR VECTORS WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A MESOVORTICES
AND A TORNADO RISK WITH ANY LINE OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP AND TRACKS
TO THE EAST OR EAST NORTHEAST.

THERE COULD ALSO BE TRAINING OF STORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WHICH COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR.


&&


.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

ON GOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING REMAINED THE FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST.

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OZARKS THIS MORNING WILL BRING
A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND
THE OZARKS AS STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATION
THROUGH SUNRISE. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR CONVECTION MAY REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING THOUGH SOME CLEARING SHOULD
OCCUR LATE IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS ANOTHER JET MAX SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE AGAIN...NEGATIVELY TILTING SYSTEM. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH A SLOWLY VEERING LOW LEVEL JET TO ALLOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR QUICKLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AS THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE OZARKS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT ONCE AGAIN FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ONE CONCERN WILL BE THE
DRY LINE. IT HAS CURRENTLY RETREATED FAIRLY FAR WEST OVER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. WHERE THE STORMS INITIALLY DEVELOP...LIKELY AS
SUPERCELLS ONCE AGAIN...WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR EAST THE DRY LINE
MAKES IT BEFORE THE DEEP LIFT FROM THE JET STREAK AND LOW LEVEL
JET MOVES OVER THE REGION. STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR WEST AS
WICHITA TO TULSA TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE MISSOURI AND KANSAS STATE
LINE. THIS WILL HAVE ENORMOUS CONSEQUENCES IN WHAT TYPE OF SEVERE
WEATHER THE OZARKS WILL EXPERIENCE. SOME SHORT TERM ANN LOCAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS DEVELOP FARTHER WEST AND MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION AS A QLCS OR SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED
MESOVORTICES. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT A WEAK TO MODERATE CAP
HOLDS THE STORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER EAST WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT
SUPERCELLS MAY BE THE INITIAL MODE.

ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE
NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM TONIGHT CONVECTION. THIS
ALSO INCLUDES THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY THAT STORMS ARE MOVING ALONG
THIS MORNING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE STORMS WILL ULTIMATELY BEGIN
TO TRAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF TRAINING
SUPERCELLS OR HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. IN EITHER CASE...THE STORMS WILL BE WORKING WITH A
VERY MOIST AIR MASS AGAIN MONDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STORMS MOVING
OVER THE SAME AREAS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ACROSS THE
OZARKS. THIS LOOKS TO REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 44
CORRIDOR.

DESPITE THE TYPE OF STORMS OR THE MODE IN WHICH THEY MOVE OVER THE
REGION...THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...FLOODING RAINS...AND TORNADOES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

FOR TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY. THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN LOOKS TO BE
FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44...BUT WITH THE DIFFERING
MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS
THE ALL OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS
CONVECTION WOULD BE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO ADDITIONAL
FLOODING AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAINS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BE ON THE MOVE TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS DO CONTINUE TO INDICATED SEVERAL
SHORT WAVES MOVING OVER THE RIDGE WITH A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

A MVFR CLOUD DECK IS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD COVER AND EXPECT VFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW SHOWER OR STORMS
MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE BETTER POTENTIAL IS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS
INTO OF STORMS PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR
VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...WISE
SHORT TERM...HATCH
LONG TERM...HATCH
AVIATION...WISE

000
FXUS63 KEAX 201723
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1223 PM CDT Mon May 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

For today and tonight, ongoing convection in southern Missouri and
Kansas is spreading cloud cover over the region this morning. This
cloud cover should move away and/or dissipate by late this morning
leading to a good recovery in instability for afternoon/evening
convection. The main question is where any boundary, either synoptic
or outflow, will be to initiate convection. That said, convection
looks to develop along the front which is forecast to be sliding
into northwestern Missouri by this afternoon. Convection could also
develop on any residual outflow boundaries by this afternoon but
with such a mess of a surface pattern right now it is difficult to
know where they may be by this afternoon. Models show winds to be
veered ahead of the main front which will limit the tornado
potential. Although surface winds could be backed some in the
vicinity of any outflow boundary locally enhancing the risk. Shear
will be ample enough for storm organization and likely supercell
structures so near-term mesoanalysis will again be crucial this
afternoon to locate any enhanced tornado risk area along any boundary.
Otherwise, the biggest threats look to be from large hail and
damaging winds. With the shear vectors oriented nearly parallel to
the boundary and winds nearly unidirectional, storms may more quickly
evolve into bowing segments or a convective system, thus enhancing
the wind threat. This orientation may also lead to a localized heavy
rain and flooding threat, particularly if storms train along our
southern counties where heavy rains fell tonight.

For Tuesday, there will remain a chance for storms as the main upper
trough/low continues to send embedded impulses through the region.
Moisture and instability may be enough so that afternoon storms can
not be ruled out at this time. But with winds continuing to be veered
there will be limited convergence along any boundary and thus a more
limited severe threat.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

Tuesday night into Sunday...The cold front will push through the
remainder of the CWA Tuesday night, with only lingering chances for
thunderstorms across central Missouri. The upper low will begin to
move east of the area Wednesday into Thursday with the surface cold
front becoming stationary along the Interstate 40 corridor in OK and
AR. High pressure will build into the western Great Lakes region
with mainly dry and cooler weather expected Wednesday night into
Thursday. The western portion of the surface front will begin
lifting back northward across the Central Plains by the end of the
work week. A chance of thunderstorms will be possible across the
southwestern sections of the CWA Friday into the weekend, closest to
the frontal boundary and better instability. A weak upper level
ridge will develop over the central CONUS by the weekend with a few
upper waves rounding the ridge, resulting in a chance for convection
across portions of the CWA. As for temperatures, readings will be
slightly below normal for the Wednesday through Friday before
returning to near normal levels for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

A rather messy afternoon forecast continues for convective chances
near the major terminals. Several outflow boundaries linger over the
CWA, with the one with the highest potential developing convection
stretching from Fort Scott eastward to Columbia. Further north, a
secondary elevated boundary continues to lift through northern
Missouri and Kansas, and as we continually destabilize this
afternoon, it too may become a focus for scattered convection.

Will also need to watch the true cold front entering NW Missouri
later today. For now, unable to pinpoint an exact time or location
for convective development in relationship to the terminals, and will
continue to advertise VCTS through the evening.

Quiet conditions do return after midnight, with VFR prevailing.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Dux

000
FXUS63 KSGF 201619
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1119 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

CLOUDY SKIES ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING AFTER LAST NIGHTS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL OCCURRING JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA THOUGH A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO MAY CLIP THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.

UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOCATED ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM EASTERN IOWA
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. CLOUDY
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO MUCH
FOR THE AREA. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING AND EXPECT THE
CLEARING TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.

A NUMBER OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND THIS
MORNING ARE LAID OUT ACROSS THE REGION. WHEN SKIES CLEAR AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES ITS POSSIBLE A FEW STORMS COULD TRY TO
DEVELOP ON THESE BOUNDARIES.

THE MAIN DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CLOUD ARE
CLEARING HERE AND INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND
THERE WILL BE A LARGE HAIL RISK WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT TRACK
INTO THE REGION. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH SUPERCELLS IS GOING
TO DEPEND ON IF THE CLOUDS CLEAR AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
INCREASES. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI...WHICH ALSO WAS NOT REALLY AFFECTED BY LAST NIGHTS
STORMS. THESE AREAS ARE ALSO WHERE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MOST LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY DEVELOP THIS MORNING...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR.

A LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY AGAIN FORM TONIGHT TO OUR SOUTHWEST
AND WILL RACE ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG WINDS WOULD BE LIKELY WITH
ANY LINE THAT CAN DEVELOP WITH MU-CAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG WILL
BE IN PLACE. 0-3KM SHEAR VECTORS WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A MESOVORTICES
AND A TORNADO RISK WITH ANY LINE OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP AND TRACKS
TO THE EAST OR EAST NORTHEAST.

THERE COULD ALSO BE TRAINING OF STORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WHICH COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

ON GOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING REMAINED THE FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST.

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OZARKS THIS MORNING WILL BRING
A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND
THE OZARKS AS STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATION
THROUGH SUNRISE. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR CONVECTION MAY REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING THOUGH SOME CLEARING SHOULD
OCCUR LATE IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS ANOTHER JET MAX SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE AGAIN...NEGATIVELY TILTING SYSTEM. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH A SLOWLY VEERING LOW LEVEL JET TO ALLOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR QUICKLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AS THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE OZARKS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT ONCE AGAIN FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ONE CONCERN WILL BE THE
DRY LINE. IT HAS CURRENTLY RETREATED FAIRLY FAR WEST OVER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. WHERE THE STORMS INITIALLY DEVELOP...LIKELY AS
SUPERCELLS ONCE AGAIN...WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR EAST THE DRY LINE
MAKES IT BEFORE THE DEEP LIFT FROM THE JET STREAK AND LOW LEVEL
JET MOVES OVER THE REGION. STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR WEST AS
WICHITA TO TULSA TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE MISSOURI AND KANSAS STATE
LINE. THIS WILL HAVE ENORMOUS CONSEQUENCES IN WHAT TYPE OF SEVERE
WEATHER THE OZARKS WILL EXPERIENCE. SOME SHORT TERM ANN LOCAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS DEVELOP FARTHER WEST AND MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION AS A QLCS OR SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED
MESOVORTICES. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT A WEAK TO MODERATE CAP
HOLDS THE STORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER EAST WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT
SUPERCELLS MAY BE THE INITIAL MODE.

ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE
NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM TONIGHT CONVECTION. THIS
ALSO INCLUDES THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY THAT STORMS ARE MOVING ALONG
THIS MORNING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE STORMS WILL ULTIMATELY BEGIN
TO TRAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF TRAINING
SUPERCELLS OR HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. IN EITHER CASE...THE STORMS WILL BE WORKING WITH A
VERY MOIST AIR MASS AGAIN MONDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STORMS MOVING
OVER THE SAME AREAS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ACROSS THE
OZARKS. THIS LOOKS TO REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 44
CORRIDOR.

DESPITE THE TYPE OF STORMS OR THE MODE IN WHICH THEY MOVE OVER THE
REGION...THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...FLOODING RAINS...AND TORNADOES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

FOR TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY. THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN LOOKS TO BE
FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44...BUT WITH THE DIFFERING
MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS
THE ALL OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS
CONVECTION WOULD BE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO ADDITIONAL
FLOODING AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAINS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BE ON THE MOVE TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS DO CONTINUE TO INDICATED SEVERAL
SHORT WAVES MOVING OVER THE RIDGE WITH A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS
REGION THIS MORNING HOWEVER...THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
AREA AERODROMES INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS WILL
GIVE WAY TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS BY 14-15Z AND REMAIN VFR INTO
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
REGIONS TERMINALS AFTER 20-12Z WITH THE POTENTIAL FRO MVFR TO
PERIODS OF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. WILL MONITOR THE LATEST
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MODIFY THE FLIGHT
FORECAST AS NEEDED WITH THE LATEST INFORMATION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...WISE
SHORT TERM...HATCH
LONG TERM...HATCH
AVIATION...HATCH

000
FXUS63 KSGF 201207
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
707 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

ON GOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING REMAINED THE FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST.

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OZARKS THIS MORNING WILL BRING
A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND
THE OZARKS AS STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATION
THROUGH SUNRISE. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR CONVECTION MAY REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING THOUGH SOME CLEARING SHOULD
OCCUR LATE IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS ANOTHER JET MAX SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE AGAIN...NEGATIVELY TILTING SYSTEM. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH A SLOWLY VEERING LOW LEVEL JET TO ALLOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR QUICKLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AS THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE OZARKS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT ONCE AGAIN FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ONE CONCERN WILL BE THE
DRY LINE. IT HAS CURRENTLY RETREATED FAIRLY FAR WEST OVER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. WHERE THE STORMS INITIALLY DEVELOP...LIKELY AS
SUPERCELLS ONCE AGAIN...WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR EAST THE DRY LINE
MAKES IT BEFORE THE DEEP LIFT FROM THE JET STREAK AND LOW LEVEL
JET MOVES OVER THE REGION. STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR WEST AS
WICHITA TO TULSA TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE MISSOURI AND KANSAS STATE
LINE. THIS WILL HAVE ENORMOUS CONSEQUENCES IN WHAT TYPE OF SEVERE
WEATHER THE OZARKS WILL EXPERIENCE. SOME SHORT TERM ANN LOCAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS DEVELOP FARTHER WEST AND MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION AS A QLCS OR SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED
MESOVORTICES. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT A WEAK TO MODERATE CAP
HOLDS THE STORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER EAST WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT
SUPERCELLS MAY BE THE INITIAL MODE.

ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE
NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM TONIGHT CONVECTION. THIS
ALSO INCLUDES THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY THAT STORMS ARE MOVING ALONG
THIS MORNING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE STORMS WILL ULTIMATELY BEGIN
TO TRAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF TRAINING
SUPERCELLS OR HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. IN EITHER CASE...THE STORMS WILL BE WORKING WITH A
VERY MOIST AIR MASS AGAIN MONDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STORMS MOVING
OVER THE SAME AREAS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ACROSS THE
OZARKS. THIS LOOKS TO REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 44
CORRIDOR.

DESPITE THE TYPE OF STORMS OR THE MODE IN WHICH THEY MOVE OVER THE
REGION...THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...FLOODING RAINS...AND TORNADOES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

FOR TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY. THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN LOOKS TO BE
FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44...BUT WITH THE DIFFERING
MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS
THE ALL OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS
CONVECTION WOULD BE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO ADDITIONAL
FLOODING AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAINS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BE ON THE MOVE TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS DO CONTINUE TO INDICATED SEVERAL
SHORT WAVES MOVING OVER THE RIDGE WITH A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS
REGION THIS MORNING HOWEVER...THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
AREA AERODROMES INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS WILL
GIVE WAY TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS BY 14-15Z AND REMAIN VFR INTO
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
REGIONS TERMINALS AFTER 20-12Z WITH THE POTENTIAL FRO MVFR TO
PERIODS OF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. WILL MONITOR THE LATEST
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MODIFY THE FLIGHT
FORECAST AS NEEDED WITH THE LATEST INFORMATION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>070-077>081-088>095-101>103.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     KSZ073-097-101.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-
     101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATCH
LONG TERM...HATCH
AVIATION...HATCH

000
FXUS63 KLSX 201149
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
649 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO FEED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH EASTERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING. BELIEVE
THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME AS
FOCUS SHIFTS WEST. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WILL
DIMINISH OR INTENSIFY AS PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
CONTINUES TO FEED INTO THAT AREA FROM OKLAHOMA.

IF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVLEOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST THE CURRENT
FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DRASTICALLY TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE
CLOUD COVER...PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THEREFORE
COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND PASS ALONG
TO THE DAY SHIFT THESE CONCERNS.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

MORNING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD THRU THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY DO NOT ANTICIPATE OUTFLOW FROM THIS
CONVECTION IMPACTING THE CWA LATER TODAY AS IT SHUD CONTINUE WELL
OUTSIDE OF THE CWA.

THE CDFNT CURRENTLY OVER ERN KS WILL MOVE EWD TODAY AND SHUD BE
JUST W OF THE CWA AROUND NOON. WITH THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR...EXPECT AREA TO RECOVER WELL WITH AMPLE INSOLATION.
MDL SOLNS DIFFER REGARDING EXACTLY HOW TSRA WILL UNFOLD TODAY.
CONVECTION ALLOWING MDLS SUGGEST FOCUS WILL BE SW OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVE WITH THIS LINE MOVING NEWD INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. THE OPR MDLS SUGGEST TSRA WILL DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE
CWA LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. INTERESTINGLY...THE
LOCAL 4KM WRF PROVIDES A MERGER OF THESE TWO SOLNS...WHICH SEEMS
THE MOST LIKELY. WHILE TIMING REMAINS A QUESTION...WHAT DOES FORM
SHUD EVOLVE UPSCALE INTO A LINEAR MODE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. TSRA SHUD BE ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE TUES.

LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO TEMPS...KEEPING THE FORECAST AOA THE
WARMEST MOS.

TILLY

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

CURRENT INDICATIONS BASED ON THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS IS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING FROM THE OVERNIGHT
MCS SHOULD BE IN A DRASTICALLY WEAKENED STATE AT DAYBREAK. GIVEN THAT THE
PRIMARY SHORT WAVE TROF WILL HAVE ALREADY ROTATED NEWD INTO IOWA
AND A VEERED WSWLY LLJ...ANY REMAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOST LIKELY BE LOCATED FROM SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL IL ACROSS
SE MO. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MORNING AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY AND GIVEN THE
TENDENCY TOWARDS CUMULIFORM CLOUDS...GOOD HEATING WILL COMMENCE.
THIS HEATING COMBINED WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY
AND WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY MID
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOA 40 KTS WOULD FAVOR
DISCRETE TO SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AS THE DOMINATE STORM MODE
INITIALLY. AT THIS WE ARE EXPECTING A FAVORED WSW-ENE CORRIDOR
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 21Z FROM AROUND JEFFERSON CITY TO
BOWLING GREEN...ALTHO THIS AXIS COULD BE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
DEPENDING ON ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES. MERGERS AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS ZONE AND UPSTREAM SHOULD RESULT IN A MIX
OF STORM MODES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
STORMS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE SPREADS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INTO THE REGION...ALSO
CONTRIBUTING TO UPSCALE STORM GROWTH. THERE EVENTUALLY COULD BE A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT FROM CENTRAL THROUGH EAST CENTRAL MO DUE TO
PERSISTENT AND TRAINING CONVECTION...BUT THE EXACT LOCATION IS TOO
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS POINT.

THE CONVECTIVE DETAILS BECOME LESS DEFINED ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR RESIDUAL SHOWERS/STORMS FROM MONDAY NIGHT AND THE
PRESENCE OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FEATURING THE UPPER TROF PROGRESSING EASTWARD WITH THE ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT MOVING THRU THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
WOULD FAVOR HIGH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...ESPECIALLY THE SE HALF OF
THE CWA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS AND WEAK-MODERATE INSTABILITY
WOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR ORGANIZED-MIXED MODE SEVERE STORMS.

THE BOUNDARY FINALLY LOOKS TO PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY. THE PATTERN
THEN IS DOMINATED BY WEAK NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROF
AND LOOKS DRY THURSDAY NIGHT-SAT MORNING. THEREAFTER RETURN FLOW AND
WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING THRU THE PLAINS UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY WILL BRING A RE-NEWED CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS....ESPECIALLY THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA.

GLASS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

CURRENTLY RADAR DEPICTS A LINE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
STRECHING ACROSS THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA. THIS LINE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. SOME QUESTION TO
CONVECTIVE TRENDS THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL
JET CONTINUES TO DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ALL THE WAY BACK INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE
DIMINISHING BY THIS POINT IN THE MORNING...BUT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
TO OUR SOUTHWEST COULD KEEP THIS CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY HAVE OPTED TO JUST KEEP VCTS IN FORECAST UNTIL WE SEE
WHAT HAPPENS THIS MORNING. SOUTH WIND TO CONTINUE.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINAL
COMPLEX AT THE MOMENT WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR RADAR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR FOR THE NEED TO INCLUDE
ADDITIONAL HOURS OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. AT THIS POINT WOULD THINK THAT CONVECTION WOULD
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING...WITH REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.



CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KEAX 201050
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
550 AM CDT Mon May 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

For today and tonight, ongoing convection in southern Missouri and
Kansas is spreading cloud cover over the region this morning. This
cloud cover should move away and/or dissipate by late this morning
leading to a good recovery in instability for afternoon/evening
convection. The main question is where any boundary, either synoptic
or outflow, will be to initiate convection. That said, convection
looks to develop along the front which is forecast to be sliding
into northwestern Missouri by this afternoon. Convection could also
develop on any residual outflow boundaries by this afternoon but
with such a mess of a surface pattern right now it is difficult to
know where they may be by this afternoon. Models show winds to be
veered ahead of the main front which will limit the tornado
potential. Although surface winds could be backed some in the
vicinity of any outflow boundary locally enhancing the risk. Shear
will be ample enough for storm organization and likely supercell
structures so near-term mesoanalysis will again be crucial this
afternoon to locate any enhanced tornado risk area along any boundary.
Otherwise, the biggest threats look to be from large hail and
damaging winds. With the shear vectors oriented nearly parallel to
the boundary and winds nearly unidirectional, storms may more quickly
evolve into bowing segments or a convective system, thus enhancing
the wind threat. This orientation may also lead to a localized heavy
rain and flooding threat, particularly if storms train along our
southern counties where heavy rains fell tonight.

For Tuesday, there will remain a chance for storms as the main upper
trough/low continues to send embedded impulses through the region.
Moisture and instability may be enough so that afternoon storms can
not be ruled out at this time. But with winds continuing to be veered
there will be limited convergence along any boundary and thus a more
limited severe threat.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

Tuesday night into Sunday...The cold front will push through the
remainder of the CWA Tuesday night, with only lingering chances for
thunderstorms across central Missouri. The upper low will begin to
move east of the area Wednesday into Thursday with the surface cold
front becoming stationary along the Interstate 40 corridor in OK and
AR. High pressure will build into the western Great Lakes region
with mainly dry and cooler weather expected Wednesday night into
Thursday. The western portion of the surface front will begin
lifting back northward across the Central Plains by the end of the
work week. A chance of thunderstorms will be possible across the
southwestern sections of the CWA Friday into the weekend, closest to
the frontal boundary and better instability. A weak upper level
ridge will develop over the central CONUS by the weekend with a few
upper waves rounding the ridge, resulting in a chance for convection
across portions of the CWA. As for temperatures, readings will be
slightly below normal for the Wednesday through Friday before
returning to near normal levels for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 536 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

VFR conditions are expected through at least this morning with high
clouds from thunderstorms to our south moving out or dissipating.
Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon ahead of a slowly advancing
front, but there remains a good amount of uncertainty with just where
convection will develop and its timing into the terminals. So have
continued the VCTS group from this afternoon through late this
evening. Winds shift to the west and skies begin to clear tonight as
storms move east of the terminals after 1 am.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...CDB

000
FXUS63 KLSX 200937
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
437 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

MORNING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD THRU THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY DO NOT ANTICIPATE OUTFLOW FROM THIS
CONVECTION IMPACTING THE CWA LATER TODAY AS IT SHUD CONTINUE WELL
OUTSIDE OF THE CWA.

THE CDFNT CURRENTLY OVER ERN KS WILL MOVE EWD TODAY AND SHUD BE
JUST W OF THE CWA AROUND NOON. WITH THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR...EXPECT AREA TO RECOVER WELL WITH AMPLE INSOLATION.
MDL SOLNS DIFFER REGARDING EXACTLY HOW TSRA WILL UNFOLD TODAY.
CONVECTION ALLOWING MDLS SUGGEST FOCUS WILL BE SW OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVE WITH THIS LINE MOVING NEWD INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. THE OPR MDLS SUGGEST TSRA WILL DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE
CWA LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. INTERESTINGLY...THE
LOCAL 4KM WRF PROVIDES A MERGER OF THESE TWO SOLNS...WHICH SEEMS
THE MOST LIKELY. WHILE TIMING REMAINS A QUESTION...WHAT DOES FORM
SHUD EVOLVE UPSCALE INTO A LINEAR MODE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. TSRA SHUD BE ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE TUES.

LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO TEMPS...KEEPING THE FORECAST AOA THE
WARMEST MOS.

TILLY

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

CURRENT INDICATIONS BASED ON THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS IS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING FROM THE OVERNIGHT
MCS SHOULD BE IN A DRASTICALLY WEAKENED STATE AT DAYBREAK. GIVEN THAT THE
PRIMARY SHORT WAVE TROF WILL HAVE ALREADY ROTATED NEWD INTO IOWA
AND A VEERED WSWLY LLJ...ANY REMAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOST LIKELY BE LOCATED FROM SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL IL ACROSS
SE MO. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MORNING AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY AND GIVEN THE
TENDENCY TOWARDS CUMULIFORM CLOUDS...GOOD HEATING WILL COMMENCE.
THIS HEATING COMBINED WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY
AND WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY MID
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOA 40 KTS WOULD FAVOR
DISCRETE TO SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AS THE DOMINATE STORM MODE
INITIALLY. AT THIS WE ARE EXPECTING A FAVORED WSW-ENE CORRIDOR
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 21Z FROM AROUND JEFFERSON CITY TO
BOWLING GREEN...ALTHO THIS AXIS COULD BE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
DEPENDING ON ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES. MERGERS AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS ZONE AND UPSTREAM SHOULD RESULT IN A MIX
OF STORM MODES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
STORMS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE SPREADS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INTO THE REGION...ALSO
CONTRIBUTING TO UPSCALE STORM GROWTH. THERE EVENTUALLY COULD BE A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT FROM CENTRAL THROUGH EAST CENTRAL MO DUE TO
PERSISTENT AND TRAINING CONVECTION...BUT THE EXACT LOCATION IS TOO
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS POINT.

THE CONVECTIVE DETAILS BECOME LESS DEFINED ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR RESIDUAL SHOWERS/STORMS FROM MONDAY NIGHT AND THE
PRESENCE OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FEATURING THE UPPER TROF PROGRESSING EASTWARD WITH THE ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT MOVING THRU THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
WOULD FAVOR HIGH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...ESPECIALLY THE SE HALF OF
THE CWA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS AND WEAK-MODERATE INSTABILITY
WOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR ORGANIZED-MIXED MODE SEVERE STORMS.

THE BOUNDARY FINALLY LOOKS TO PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY. THE PATTERN
THEN IS DOMINATED BY WEAK NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROF
AND LOOKS DRY THURSDAY NIGHT-SAT MORNING. THEREAFTER RETURN FLOW AND
WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING THRU THE PLAINS UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY WILL BRING A RE-NEWED CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS....ESPECIALLY THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA.

GLASS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

LINE OF TSRA WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO WORK ITS WAY THRU THE
FA AND SHOULD AFFECT ALL TAF SITES BEFORE SUNRISE. UNCLEAR WHETHER
THERE WILL BE A BREAK BETWEEN THIS AND WHAT DEVELOPS UPSTREAM FROM
IT LATER ON MONDAY...BUT FOR NOW...HAVE FORECASTED THE TAFS AS IF
THERE WILL BE. THE SECOND...STRONGER ROUND...SHOULD GET GOING BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY EXPAND SEWD. NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN WHERE
THIS WILL HIT WITHOUT A CLEAR FEATURE TO FOLLOW AND THUS HAVE
GONE VCTS FOR NOW BUT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO RAMP UP THE FORECAST AT
SOME OF THE TERMINALS. S SFC WNDS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD
BECOMING GUSTY ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSRA...ONE
ROUND OF TSRA FOR LATE TONIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA FOR LATER
ON MONDAY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE SECOND ROUND OF TSRA WILL NOT
WORK INTO THE TERMINAL AREA UNTIL EARLY EVENING AFTER AFFECTING
AREAS JUST TO THE NW AND THEN STAY FOR A WHILE.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KSGF 200857
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
357 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

ON GOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING REMAINED THE FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST.

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OZARKS THIS MORNING WILL BRING
A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND
THE OZARKS AS STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATION
THROUGH SUNRISE. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR CONVECTION MAY REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING THOUGH SOME CLEARING SHOULD
OCCUR LATE IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS ANOTHER JET MAX SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE AGAIN...NEGATIVELY TILTING SYSTEM. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH A SLOWLY VEERING LOW LEVEL JET TO ALLOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR QUICKLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AS THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE OZARKS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT ONCE AGAIN FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ONE CONCERN WILL BE THE
DRY LINE. IT HAS CURRENTLY RETREATED FAIRLY FAR WEST OVER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. WHERE THE STORMS INITIALLY DEVELOP...LIKELY AS
SUPERCELLS ONCE AGAIN...WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR EAST THE DRY LINE
MAKES IT BEFORE THE DEEP LIFT FROM THE JET STREAK AND LOW LEVEL
JET MOVES OVER THE REGION. STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR WEST AS
WICHITA TO TULSA TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE MISSOURI AND KANSAS STATE
LINE. THIS WILL HAVE ENORMOUS CONSEQUENCES IN WHAT TYPE OF SEVERE
WEATHER THE OZARKS WILL EXPERIENCE. SOME SHORT TERM ANN LOCAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS DEVELOP FARTHER WEST AND MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION AS A QLCS OR SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED
MESOVORTICES. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT A WEAK TO MODERATE CAP
HOLDS THE STORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER EAST WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT
SUPERCELLS MAY BE THE INITIAL MODE.

ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE
NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM TONIGHT CONVECTION. THIS
ALSO INCLUDES THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY THAT STORMS ARE MOVING ALONG
THIS MORNING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE STORMS WILL ULTIMATELY BEGIN
TO TRAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF TRAINING
SUPERCELLS OR HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. IN EITHER CASE...THE STORMS WILL BE WORKING WITH A
VERY MOIST AIR MASS AGAIN MONDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STORMS MOVING
OVER THE SAME AREAS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ACROSS THE
OZARKS. THIS LOOKS TO REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 44
CORRIDOR.

DESPITE THE TYPE OF STORMS OR THE MODE IN WHICH THEY MOVE OVER THE
REGION...THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...FLOODING RAINS...AND TORNADOES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

FOR TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY. THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN LOOKS TO BE
FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44...BUT WITH THE DIFFERING
MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS
THE ALL OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS
CONVECTION WOULD BE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO ADDITIONAL
FLOODING AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAINS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BE ON THE MOVE TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS DO CONTINUE TO INDICATED SEVERAL
SHORT WAVES MOVING OVER THE RIDGE WITH A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

PILOTS CAN EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT AREA TERMINALS AT TIMES
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS

THE STORMS ALONG WITH AREAS OF STRATUS WILL RESULT IN MVFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL AFFECT THE REGION OVERNIGHT.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>070-077>081-088>095-101>103.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-
     101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATCH
LONG TERM...HATCH
AVIATION...FOSTER

000
FXUS63 KEAX 200840
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
340 AM CDT Mon May 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

For today and tonight, ongoing convection in southern Missouri and
Kansas is spreading cloud cover over the region this morning. This
cloud cover should move away and/or dissipate by late this morning
leading to a good recovery in instability for afternoon/evening
convection. The main question is where any boundary, either synoptic
or outflow, will be to initiate convection. That said, convection
looks to develop along the front which is forecast to be sliding
into northwestern Missouri by this afternoon. Convection could also
develop on any residual outflow boundaries by this afternoon but
with such a mess of a surface pattern right now it is difficult to
know where they may be by this afternoon. Models show winds to be
veered ahead of the main front which will limit the tornado
potential. Although surface winds could be backed some in the
vicinity of any outflow boundary locally enhancing the risk. Shear
will be ample enough for storm organization and likely supercell
structures so near-term mesoanalysis will again be crucial this
afternoon to locate any enhanced tornado risk area along any boundary.
Otherwise, the biggest threats look to be from large hail and
damaging winds. With the shear vectors oriented nearly parallel to
the boundary and winds nearly unidirectional, storms may more quickly
evolve into bowing segments or a convective system, thus enhancing
the wind threat. This orientation may also lead to a localized heavy
rain and flooding threat, particularly if storms train along our
southern counties where heavy rains fell tonight.

For Tuesday, there will remain a chance for storms as the main upper
trough/low continues to send embedded impulses through the region.
Moisture and instability may be enough so that afternoon storms can
not be ruled out at this time. But with winds continuing to be veered
there will be limited convergence along any boundary and thus a more
limited severe threat.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

Tuesday night into Sunday...The cold front will push through the
remainder of the CWA Tuesday night, with only lingering chances for
thunderstorms across central Missouri. The upper low will begin to
move east of the area Wednesday into Thursday with the surface cold
front becoming stationary along the Interstate 40 corridor in OK and
AR. High pressure will build into the western Great Lakes region
with mainly dry and cooler weather expected Wednesday night into
Thursday. The western portion of the surface front will begin
lifting back northward across the Central Plains by the end of the
work week. A chance of thunderstorms will be possible across the
southwestern sections of the CWA Friday into the weekend, closest to
the frontal boundary and better instability. A weak upper level
ridge will develop over the central CONUS by the weekend with a few
upper waves rounding the ridge, resulting in a chance for convection
across portions of the CWA. As for temperatures, readings will be
slightly below normal for the Wednesday through Friday before
returning to near normal levels for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

VFR conditions are expected in the wake of tonight`s thunderstorms.
But we will see high level clouds continuing to spread across the
area from thunderstorms over southern Missouri. Winds should remain
mostly from the south to the southwest tonight and become more
persistently from the southwest by late Monday morning. Additional
thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon but there is
considerable uncertainty at this time regarding the timing and
location. So for now will just carry a VCTS group from 21Z onward.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...CDB

000
FXUS63 KLSX 200604
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
104 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

FOCUS FOR STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING IS BACK OVER EASTERN KS/WESTERN
MO...THEN HAVE THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVE EAST INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MO BY 03Z. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO FORECAST
AREA. 12Z MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH SOME FOCUSING MAIN AREA OF
STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70...WHILE OTHERS HAVE A LONG LINE OF
STORMS MOVE ACROSS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW HAVE AREA OF STORMS
MOVE ACROSS REGION...GRADUALLY WEAKENING/DIMINISHING TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...GOING FROM LIKELY POPS DOWN TO JUST CHANCE POPS BY 11Z.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA. AS FOR
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...DECENT CAPES/PWS...LOW LEVEL JET...AND
SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH AREA TONIGHT. SO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA STILL IN A SLIGHT RISK OVERNIGHT...WITH MAIN THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WINDS.

OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
MILD WEATHER TO PERSIST WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...WITH LOW 70S IN STL METRO AREA.

BYRD

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

CURRENT INDICATIONS BASED ON THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS IS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING FROM THE OVERNIGHT
MCS SHOULD BE IN A DRASTICALLY WEAKENED STATE AT DAYBREAK. GIVEN THAT THE
PRIMARY SHORT WAVE TROF WILL HAVE ALREADY ROTATED NEWD INTO IOWA
AND A VEERED WSWLY LLJ...ANY REMAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOST LIKELY BE LOCATED FROM SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL IL ACROSS
SE MO. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MORNING AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY AND GIVEN THE
TENDENCY TOWARDS CUMULIFORM CLOUDS...GOOD HEATING WILL COMMENCE.
THIS HEATING COMBINED WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY
AND WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY MID
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOA 40 KTS WOULD FAVOR
DISCRETE TO SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AS THE DOMINATE STORM MODE
INITIALLY. AT THIS WE ARE EXPECTING A FAVORED WSW-ENE CORRIDOR
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 21Z FROM AROUND JEFFERSON CITY TO
BOWLING GREEN...ALTHO THIS AXIS COULD BE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
DEPENDING ON ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES. MERGERS AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS ZONE AND UPSTREAM SHOULD RESULT IN A MIX
OF STORM MODES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
STORMS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE SPREADS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INTO THE REGION...ALSO
CONTRIBUTING TO UPSCALE STORM GROWTH. THERE EVENTUALLY COULD BE A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT FROM CENTRAL THROUGH EAST CENTRAL MO DUE TO
PERSISTENT AND TRAINING CONVECTION...BUT THE EXACT LOCATION IS TOO
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS POINT.

THE CONVECTIVE DETAILS BECOME LESS DEFINED ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR RESIDUAL SHOWERS/STORMS FROM MONDAY NIGHT AND THE
PRESENCE OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FEATURING THE UPPER TROF PROGRESSING EASTWARD WITH THE ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT MOVING THRU THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
WOULD FAVOR HIGH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...ESPECIALLY THE SE HALF OF
THE CWA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS AND WEAK-MODERATE INSTABILITY
WOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR ORGANIZED-MIXED MODE SEVERE STORMS.

THE BOUNDARY FINALLY LOOKS TO PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY. THE PATTERN
THEN IS DOMINATED BY WEAK NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROF
AND LOOKS DRY THURSDAY NIGHT-SAT MORNING. THEREAFTER RETURN FLOW AND
WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING THRU THE PLAINS UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY WILL BRING A RE-NEWED CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS....ESPECIALLY THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA.

GLASS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

LINE OF TSRA WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO WORK ITS WAY THRU THE
FA AND SHOULD AFFECT ALL TAF SITES BEFORE SUNRISE. UNCLEAR WHETHER
THERE WILL BE A BREAK BETWEEN THIS AND WHAT DEVELOPS UPSTREAM FROM
IT LATER ON MONDAY...BUT FOR NOW...HAVE FORECASTED THE TAFS AS IF
THERE WILL BE. THE SECOND...STRONGER ROUND...SHOULD GET GOING BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY EXPAND SEWD. NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN WHERE
THIS WILL HIT WITHOUT A CLEAR FEATURE TO FOLLOW AND THUS HAVE
GONE VCTS FOR NOW BUT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO RAMP UP THE FORECAST AT
SOME OF THE TERMINALS. S SFC WNDS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD
BECOMING GUSTY ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSRA...ONE
ROUND OF TSRA FOR LATE TONIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA FOR LATER
ON MONDAY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE SECOND ROUND OF TSRA WILL NOT
WORK INTO THE TERMINAL AREA UNTIL EARLY EVENING AFTER AFFECTING
AREAS JUST TO THE NW AND THEN STAY FOR A WHILE.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KSGF 200517
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1217 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WILL BE
LINEAR WITH AN ATTENDANT DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT UP TO
70 MPH. THE MAIN THREAT AREA WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS DO FAVOR
MESOVORTEX POTENTIAL FOR ANY LINE SEGMENTS BOWING TOWARDS THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY...WE HAVE A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES DRAPED OUT NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE. WE WILL BE
MONITORING LINE SEGMENT INTERACTIONS WITH THESE BOUNDARIES VERY
CLOSELY FOR SPIN-UP POTENTIAL.

THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS THESE
LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. INGREDIENTS
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR UPWIND PROPAGATING CHARACTERISTICS TO THIS
OVERALL EXPANDING MCS. THUS...TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN
ATTENDANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT ARE A DEFINITE CONCERN
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44
CORRIDOR. THE GOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH COVERS THIS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS CONTINUE TO TAKE
SHAPE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND FLOODING.

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND
BECOME ORIENTED PARALLEL WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. IT APPEARS THAT MORE
THAN AMPLE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEER WILL BE IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY MONDAY EVENING AS A JET
STREAK COMES ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. THE RISK
FOR SEVERE WILL INCREASE IF SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING AND SUBSEQUENT
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.

PROGGED SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AS WELL
AS TRAINING CELLS. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PROLONGED SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT INCLUDING TORNADOES. THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE ENHANCED ALONG AND JUST OF THE SAGGING FRONT FROM SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

IN ADDITION A RICH SUPPLY OF MOISTURE WILL INTERACT  WITH THE FRONT
TO SUPPORT TORRENTIAL RATES. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT
INTERACTING WITH A LOW LEVEL JET...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
STORMS THE RISK FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

ON TUESDAY...MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST BUT IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION
WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY IF ANY CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
MODELS CONTINUE SUGGEST PERIODIC CHANCES OF CONVECTION AS MINOR
DISTURBANCES COME OVER THE RIDGE BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE ARE UNCERTAIN. OTHERWISE SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

PILOTS CAN EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT AREA TERMINALS AT TIMES
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS

THE STORMS ALONG WITH AREAS OF STRATUS WILL RESULT IN MVFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL AFFECT THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR MOZ055>058-066>070-
     077>081-088>095-101>103.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...SCHAUMANN
SHORT TERM...FOSTER
LONG TERM...FOSTER
AVIATION...FOSTER

000
FXUS63 KEAX 200512
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1212 AM CDT Mon May 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

Convection is already beginning to fire ahead of a north-south-
oriented wave over central KS. This wave will be the main player this
evening, and we still expect a line of supercells to develop just
ahead of it through late afternoon. This line should be near a TOP-
STJ line around 5 pm, into the KC metro between 6 pm and 9 pm and
toward Kirksville and Boonville between 9 pm and midnight.

Airmass has become moderately to strongly unstable, evident by 2600
J/kg of CAPE on the 18Z TOP sounding. This combined with a 50-60 kt
mid-level jet streak directly overhead will be more than supportive
of organized severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Still expect storms capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes to
develop over eastern KS which will transition into a line of storms
over far eastern KS or western MO and race into central MO overnight.
Latest models suggest this transition into linear or quasi-linear mode
may occur a bit earlier than previously thought, possibly as far west
as eastern KS. This line will be capable of producing widespread wind
damage and some embedded tornadoes. Better chances for strong
tornadoes now appear to be southwest of the forecast area, closer to
Wichita, where low-level wind fields will be a bit more supportive.
However, low-level shear will increase after 00Z across far western
MO, and this could support tornadoes embedded within a developing
QLCS as it tracks into Kansas City and points east. Any storms that
maintain supercell structure after 00Z will also have an enhanced
tornado threat.

Another potentially active day is in store for Monday as wind fields
remain supportive of severe storms. Much of the severe threat for
Monday depends on how far south and east the cold front pushes
overnight, and any lingering cloud debris that could cut back on
instability during the day. Models have trended slightly further east
with the location of the front, and thus the severe threat, which now
appears to be focused from near Clinton and Sedalia toward Macon and
points east. If strong instability can redevelop, shear profiles
support a severe line of storms capable of large hail and widespread
wind damage developing across these areas and spreading into eastern
MO and the Ozarks Monday evening. Heavy rain will also be a threat
with this line.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

Have lowered thunderstorm chances on Tuesday as latest guidances
indicates convection Monday night may shove effective boundary far
enough to the southeast to push highest chances of redevelopment
into the southeastern portions of the state.

Through Friday, temperatures will return to seasonal normal in the
70s, as high pressure remains in control.  Precipitation chances
begin to increase by next weekend as mid-level heights rise and
moisture returns to the Plains.  Temperatures by next weekend will
again climb back into the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

VFR conditions are expected in the wake of tonight`s thunderstorms.
But we will see high level clouds continuing to spread across the
area from thunderstorms over southern Missouri. Winds should remain
mostly from the south to the southwest tonight and become more
persistently from the southwest by late Monday morning. Additional
thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon but there is
considerable uncertainty at this time regarding the timing and
location. So for now will just carry a VCTS group from 21Z onward.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hawblitzel
LONG TERM...Dux
AVIATION...CDB

000
FXUS63 KSGF 200207
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
907 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...UPDATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 907 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

RATHER COMPLEX AND MESSY MESOSCALE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT.

LEAD BAND OF CONVECTION NOW EXTENDS FROM VERSAILLES TO BOLIVAR TO
JUST WEST OF SPRINGFIELD TO CASSVILLE. TO THIS POINT SPARSE
REPORTS INDICATE WINDS TO AROUND 45 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
DIMES WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. PRETTY GOOD LIGHTNING SHOW
THOUGH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES WILL CONTINUE AS THIS
LINE HEADS EAST.

THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE BEHAVIOR OF CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND THIS WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. CONVECTION HAS REINTENSIFIED OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. INCREASING...
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS INCREASING LOW LEVEL HELICITY...WITH
0-1KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES IN THE 200-300 M2/S2 RANGE.
THE DISCREET CELLS TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK OF ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER AS THEY GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL BE MOST PRONE TO OBSERVING THIS
ACTIVITY (GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE NEOSHO TO
OSCEOLA). MLCAPE AND MUCAPE VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2000 J/KG IN THIS
AREA.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
WILL CONTINUE TO VEER...THOUGH REMAIN DIRECTED TOWARD A DIFFLUENT
FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. WITH WINDS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS
NEARLY STACKED/PARALLEL THIS WILL RESULT IN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT
AS CELLS WILL CONTINUALLY FIRE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OR SO OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA...THIS IS WHERE THE BAND OF CONVECTION TO OUR
WEST WILL LIKELY STALL AND THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPINGE ON THE AFOREMENTIONED INCOMING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WILL BE
HONING IN ON THE PREFERRED AREA FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING AND
LIKELY SEND OUT A WATCH WITHIN THE HOUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS CONTINUE TO TAKE
SHAPE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND FLOODING.

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND
BECOME ORIENTED PARALLEL WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. IT APPEARS THAT MORE
THAN AMPLE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEER WILL BE IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY MONDAY EVENING AS A JET
STREAK COMES ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. THE RISK
FOR SEVERE WILL INCREASE IF SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING AND SUBSEQUENT
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.

PROGGED SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AS WELL
AS TRAINING CELLS. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PROLONGED SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT INCLUDING TORNADOES. THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE ENHANCED ALONG AND JUST OF THE SAGGING FRONT FROM SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

IN ADDITION A RICH SUPPLY OF MOISTURE WILL INTERACT  WITH THE FRONT
TO SUPPORT TORRENTIAL RATES. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT
INTERACTING WITH A LOW LEVEL JET...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
STORMS THE RISK FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

ON TUESDAY...MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST BUT IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION
WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY IF ANY CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
MODELS CONTINUE SUGGEST PERIODIC CHANCES OF CONVECTION AS MINOR
DISTURBANCES COME OVER THE RIDGE BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE ARE UNCERTAIN. OTHERWISE SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM
ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A RISK OF
LIGHTNING AND A ISOLATED RISK FOR WIND/HAIL. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS (BOTH LINEAR AND CELLULAR) ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA RESPECTIVELY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION BETWEEN 02Z-06Z. THIS WILL POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS. THE EVOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HEADING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT REMAINS IN QUESTION. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER AND PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...JUST NORTH OF THE AERODROMES. WILL NEED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR JUST EXACTLY WHERE THIS AXIS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL SET UP AND FURTHER FORECAST REFINEMENTS ARE EXPECTED. IN
ADDITION TO THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS...ENVIRONMENTAL
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT ALL SITES WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...GAGAN
SHORT TERM...FOSTER
LONG TERM...FOSTER
AVIATION...GAGAN

000
FXUS63 KSGF 192359
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
659 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...UPDATED MESOSCALE AND AVIATION DISCUSSIONS...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.

WARM SECTOR CONVECTION NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI STATE LINE IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING MORE ROOTED WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

THIS WILL CAUSE UPDRAFTS TO STRENGTHEN WITH TIME...FACILITATING
THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

18Z NAM ANALYSIS SUGGESTS AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL CAPE OVER THIS
REGION. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN
RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET...A TORNADO RISK WILL
INCREASE FROM NOW THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

THE 00Z RAOB IS JUST IN THROUGH 400MB...AND IT MEASURED IMPRESSIVE
LAPSE RATES ABOVE 800...GIVING THE OVERALL AIRMASS A DECENT
NORMALIZED (FAT) CAPE WITHIN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE. HAIL LARGER
THAN GOLF BALLS ARE A GOOD BET WITH ANY ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. ONE
NEGATIVE WITH THE SOUNDING...WAS THE AMOUNT OF MIXED LAYER
INHIBITION MEASURED...WHICH WAS 229 J/KG. THESE VALUES ARE LESS
OUT WEST TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER...ACCORDING TO SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE...AND AS SUGGESTED BY DEEPENING CONVECTION.

AND FINALLY...THE 00Z HODOGRAPH IS QUITE CURVED...WITH ESTIMATED
CRITICAL ANGLES OF AROUND 80 TO 90 DEGREES...WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR
STREAMWISE VORTICITY INGESTION NEEDED FOR TORNADOES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS CONTINUE TO TAKE
SHAPE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND FLOODING.

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND
BECOME ORIENTED PARALLEL WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. IT APPEARS THAT MORE
THAN AMPLE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEER WILL BE IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY MONDAY EVENING AS A JET
STREAK COMES ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. THE RISK
FOR SEVERE WILL INCREASE IF SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING AND SUBSEQUENT
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.

PROGGED SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AS WELL
AS TRAINING CELLS. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PROLONGED SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT INCLUDING TORNADOES. THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE ENHANCED ALONG AND JUST OF THE SAGGING FRONT FROM SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

IN ADDITION A RICH SUPPLY OF MOISTURE WILL INTERACT  WITH THE FRONT
TO SUPPORT TORRENTIAL RATES. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT
INTERACTING WITH A LOW LEVEL JET...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
STORMS THE RISK FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

ON TUESDAY...MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST BUT IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION
WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY IF ANY CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
MODELS CONTINUE SUGGEST PERIODIC CHANCES OF CONVECTION AS MINOR
DISTURBANCES COME OVER THE RIDGE BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE ARE UNCERTAIN. OTHERWISE SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM
ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A RISK OF
LIGHTNING AND A ISOLATED RISK FOR WIND/HAIL. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS (BOTH LINEAR AND CELLULAR) ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA RESPECTIVELY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION BETWEEN 02Z-06Z. THIS WILL POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS. THE EVOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HEADING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT REMAINS IN QUESTION. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER AND PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...JUST NORTH OF THE AERODROMES. WILL NEED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR JUST EXACTLY WHERE THIS AXIS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL SET UP AND FURTHER FORECAST REFINEMENTS ARE EXPECTED. IN
ADDITION TO THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS...ENVIRONMENTAL
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT ALL SITES WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...CRAMER
SHORT TERM...FOSTER
LONG TERM...FOSTER
AVIATION...GAGAN

000
FXUS63 KEAX 192351
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
651 PM CDT Sun May 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

Convection is already beginning to fire ahead of a north-south-
oriented wave over central KS. This wave will be the main player this
evening, and we still expect a line of supercells to develop just
ahead of it through late afternoon. This line should be near a TOP-
STJ line around 5 pm, into the KC metro between 6 pm and 9 pm and
toward Kirksville and Boonville between 9 pm and midnight.

Airmass has become moderately to strongly unstable, evident by 2600
J/kg of CAPE on the 18Z TOP sounding. This combined with a 50-60 kt
mid-level jet streak directly overhead will be more than supportive
of organized severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Still expect storms capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes to
develop over eastern KS which will transition into a line of storms
over far eastern KS or western MO and race into central MO overnight.
Latest models suggest this transition into linear or quasi-linear mode
may occur a bit earlier than previously thought, possibly as far west
as eastern KS. This line will be capable of producing widespread wind
damage and some embedded tornadoes. Better chances for strong
tornadoes now appear to be southwest of the forecast area, closer to
Wichita, where low-level wind fields will be a bit more supportive.
However, low-level shear will increase after 00Z across far western
MO, and this could support tornadoes embedded within a developing
QLCS as it tracks into Kansas City and points east. Any storms that
maintain supercell structure after 00Z will also have an enhanced
tornado threat.

Another potentially active day is in store for Monday as wind fields
remain supportive of severe storms. Much of the severe threat for
Monday depends on how far south and east the cold front pushes
overnight, and any lingering cloud debris that could cut back on
instability during the day. Models have trended slightly further east
with the location of the front, and thus the severe threat, which now
appears to be focused from near Clinton and Sedalia toward Macon and
points east. If strong instability can redevelop, shear profiles
support a severe line of storms capable of large hail and widespread
wind damage developing across these areas and spreading into eastern
MO and the Ozarks Monday evening. Heavy rain will also be a threat
with this line.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

Have lowered thunderstorm chances on Tuesday as latest guidances
indicates convection Monday night may shove effective boundary far
enough to the southeast to push highest chances of redevelopment
into the southeastern portions of the state.

Through Friday, temperatures will return to seasonal normal in the
70s, as high pressure remains in control.  Precipitation chances
begin to increase by next weekend as mid-level heights rise and
moisture returns to the Plains.  Temperatures by next weekend will
again climb back into the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

Line of severe thunderstorms tracking northeast 35kts will affect the
KMCI/KMKC terminals for about 2 hours at the start of the forecast.
High probability for winds greater than 50kts and potential for large
hail with this line. KSTJ will also be affected by this same line but
convection may last for an hour or two longer. After passage of this
line the rain chances pretty much end. Will be watching for re-
development towards sunrise Monday as a couple of the short range
convective models are picking up on this.

Otherwise, VFR conditions for Monday. With the frontal boundary
still draped over west central MO through Monday there is a chance
for convection to reform from Kansas City southward with chances
increasing the further south you get away from Kansas City.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hawblitzel
LONG TERM...Dux
AVIATION...MJ

000
FXUS63 KLSX 192339
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
639 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

FOCUS FOR STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING IS BACK OVER EASTERN KS/WESTERN
MO...THEN HAVE THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVE EAST INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MO BY 03Z. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO FORECAST
AREA. 12Z MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH SOME FOCUSING MAIN AREA OF
STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70...WHILE OTHERS HAVE A LONG LINE OF
STORMS MOVE ACROSS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW HAVE AREA OF STORMS
MOVE ACROSS REGION...GRADUALLY WEAKENING/DIMINISHING TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...GOING FROM LIKELY POPS DOWN TO JUST CHANCE POPS BY 11Z.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA. AS FOR
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...DECENT CAPES/PWS...LOW LEVEL JET...AND
SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH AREA TONIGHT. SO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA STILL IN A SLIGHT RISK OVERNIGHT...WITH MAIN THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WINDS.

OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
MILD WEATHER TO PERSIST WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...WITH LOW 70S IN STL METRO AREA.

BYRD

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

CURRENT INDICATIONS BASED ON THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS IS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING FROM THE OVERNIGHT
MCS SHOULD BE IN A DRASTICALLY WEAKENED STATE AT DAYBREAK. GIVEN THAT THE
PRIMARY SHORT WAVE TROF WILL HAVE ALREADY ROTATED NEWD INTO IOWA
AND A VEERED WSWLY LLJ...ANY REMAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOST LIKELY BE LOCATED FROM SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL IL ACROSS
SE MO. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MORNING AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY AND GIVEN THE
TENDENCY TOWARDS CUMULIFORM CLOUDS...GOOD HEATING WILL COMMENCE.
THIS HEATING COMBINED WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY
AND WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY MID
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOA 40 KTS WOULD FAVOR
DISCRETE TO SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AS THE DOMINATE STORM MODE
INITIALLY. AT THIS WE ARE EXPECTING A FAVORED WSW-ENE CORRIDOR
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 21Z FROM AROUND JEFFERSON CITY TO
BOWLING GREEN...ALTHO THIS AXIS COULD BE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
DEPENDING ON ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES. MERGERS AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS ZONE AND UPSTREAM SHOULD RESULT IN A MIX
OF STORM MODES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
STORMS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE SPREADS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INTO THE REGION...ALSO
CONTRIBUTING TO UPSCALE STORM GROWTH. THERE EVENTUALLY COULD BE A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT FROM CENTRAL THROUGH EAST CENTRAL MO DUE TO
PERSISTENT AND TRAINING CONVECTION...BUT THE EXACT LOCATION IS TOO
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS POINT.

THE CONVECTIVE DETAILS BECOME LESS DEFINED ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR RESIDUAL SHOWERS/STORMS FROM MONDAY NIGHT AND THE
PRESENCE OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FEATURING THE UPPER TROF PROGRESSING EASTWARD WITH THE ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT MOVING THRU THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
WOULD FAVOR HIGH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...ESPECIALLY THE SE HALF OF
THE CWA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS AND WEAK-MODERATE INSTABILITY
WOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR ORGANIZED-MIXED MODE SEVERE STORMS.

THE BOUNDARY FINALLY LOOKS TO PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY. THE PATTERN
THEN IS DOMINATED BY WEAK NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROF
AND LOOKS DRY THURSDAY NIGHT-SAT MORNING. THEREAFTER RETURN FLOW AND
WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING THRU THE PLAINS UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY WILL BRING A RE-NEWED CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS....ESPECIALLY THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA.

GLASS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

A COUPLE OF LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN
KS AND WRN MO EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES
WILL MOVE EWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND EVENTUALLY REACH
KCOU AND KUIN. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE STORMS WILL HOLD TOGETHER
LONG ENOUGH TO REACH THE KSTL METRO AREA. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS
IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTN/EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE AREA AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT. PREVAILING
WINDS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY RETAIN A SLY
COMPONENT...VARYING FM SELY TO SWLY WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AT
TIMES. BRIEF PDS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THUNDERSTORMS.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES HAVE
DEVELOPED AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD TONIGHT HOWEVER IT IS
UNCLEAR ATTM WHETHER THE STORMS WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO
REACH KSTL. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTN/EVENING AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING CDFNT. PREVAILING WINDS
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY RETAIN A SLY
COMPONENT...VARYING FM SELY TO SWLY WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AT
TIMES.

KANOFSKY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KSGF 192339
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
639 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.

WARM SECTOR CONVECTION NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI STATE LINE IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING MORE ROOTED WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

THIS WILL CAUSE UPDRAFTS TO STRENGTHEN WITH TIME...FACILITATING
THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

18Z NAM ANALYSIS SUGGESTS AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL CAPE OVER THIS
REGION. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN
RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET...A TORNADO RISK WILL
INCREASE FROM NOW THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

THE 00Z RAOB IS JUST IN THROUGH 400MB...AND IT MEASURED IMPRESSIVE
LAPSE RATES ABOVE 800...GIVING THE OVERALL AIRMASS A DECENT
NORMALIZED (FAT) CAPE WITHIN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE. HAIL LARGER
THAN GOLF BALLS ARE A GOOD BET WITH ANY ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. ONE
NEGATIVE WITH THE SOUNDING...WAS THE AMOUNT OF MIXED LAYER
INHIBITION MEASURED...WHICH WAS 229 J/KG. THESE VALUES ARE LESS
OUT WEST TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER...ACCORDING TO SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE...AND AS SUGGESTED BY DEEPENING CONVECTION.

AND FINALLY...THE 00Z HODOGRAPH IS QUITE CURVED...WITH ESTIMATED
CRITICAL ANGLES OF AROUND 80 TO 90 DEGREES...WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR
STREAMWISE VORTICITY INGESTION NEEDED FOR TORNADOES.

CRAMER



&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS CONTINUE TO TAKE
SHAPE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND FLOODING.

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND
BECOME ORIENTED PARALLEL WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. IT APPEARS THAT MORE
THAN AMPLE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEER WILL BE IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY MONDAY EVENING AS A JET
STREAK COMES ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. THE RISK
FOR SEVERE WILL INCREASE IF SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING AND SUBSEQUENT
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.

PROGGED SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AS WELL
AS TRAINING CELLS. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PROLONGED SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT INCLUDING TORNADOES. THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE ENHANCED ALONG AND JUST OF THE SAGGING FRONT FROM SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

IN ADDITION A RICH SUPPLY OF MOISTURE WILL INTERACT  WITH THE FRONT
TO SUPPORT TORRENTIAL RATES. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT
INTERACTING WITH A LOW LEVEL JET...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
STORMS THE RISK FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

ON TUESDAY...MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST BUT IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION
WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY IF ANY CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
MODELS CONTINUE SUGGEST PERIODIC CHANCES OF CONVECTION AS MINOR
DISTURBANCES COME OVER THE RIDGE BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE ARE UNCERTAIN. OTHERWISE SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

PILOTS CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN AREAS OF
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOPING TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...CRAMER
SHORT TERM...HATCH
LONG TERM...HATCH
AVIATION...FOSTER

000
FXUS63 KEAX 192216
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
516 PM CDT Sun May 19 2013

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 514 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

Convection is quickly growing upscale over central and eastern
Kansas with overall mode taking a quick transition to quasi-linear.
Still may see a few supercells ahead of this developing line capable
of producing very large hail, particularly across far northwest MO
and northeast KS. Overall tornado threat across that area is
relatively low at this time.

Large bowing structure developing near Emporia is taking a track
toward Kansas City, timed to arrive into the KC metro around 7 or 8
pm. As mentioned in an earlier discussion, low-level winds will
become increasingly favorable for bow echoes and embedded
mesovortices capable of producing very strong winds and tornadoes as
the line reaches the MO/KS border. Thus, there is increasing concern
for a potential widespread damaging wind event with a few embedded
tornadoes across east central Kansas and west central Missouri,
including all of the Kansas City metro. The potential also exists for
some significant wind gusts greater than 70 mph when the line
arrives. This wind and isolated tornado threat will continue eastward
later this evening toward central MO, but overall trends may be to
slowly weaken after the storms get east of KC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

Convection is already beginning to fire ahead of a north-south-
oriented wave over central KS. This wave will be the main player this
evening, and we still expect a line of supercells to develop just
ahead of it through late afternoon. This line should be near a TOP-
STJ line around 5 pm, into the KC metro between 6 pm and 9 pm and
toward Kirksville and Boonville between 9 pm and midnight.

Airmass has become moderately to strongly unstable, evident by 2600
J/kg of CAPE on the 18Z TOP sounding. This combined with a 50-60 kt
mid-level jet streak directly overhead will be more than supportive
of organized severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Still expect storms capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes to
develop over eastern KS which will transition into a line of storms
over far eastern KS or western MO and race into central MO overnight.
Latest models suggest this transition into linear or quasi-linear mode
may occur a bit earlier than previously thought, possibly as far west
as eastern KS. This line will be capable of producing widespread wind
damage and some embedded tornadoes. Better chances for strong
tornadoes now appear to be southwest of the forecast area, closer to
Wichita, where low-level wind fields will be a bit more supportive.
However, low-level shear will increase after 00Z across far western
MO, and this could support tornadoes embedded within a developing
QLCS as it tracks into Kansas City and points east. Any storms that
maintain supercell structure after 00Z will also have an enhanced
tornado threat.

Another potentially active day is in store for Monday as wind fields
remain supportive of severe storms. Much of the severe threat for
Monday depends on how far south and east the cold front pushes
overnight, and any lingering cloud debris that could cut back on
instability during the day. Models have trended slightly further east
with the location of the front, and thus the severe threat, which now
appears to be focused from near Clinton and Sedalia toward Macon and
points east. If strong instability can redevelop, shear profiles
support a severe line of storms capable of large hail and widespread
wind damage developing across these areas and spreading into eastern
MO and the Ozarks Monday evening. Heavy rain will also be a threat
with this line.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

Have lowered thunderstorm chances on Tuesday as latest guidances
indicates convection Monday night may shove effective boundary far
enough to the southeast to push highest chances of redevelopment
into the southeastern portions of the state.

Through Friday, temperatures will return to seasonal normal in the
70s, as high pressure remains in control.  Precipitation chances
begin to increase by next weekend as mid-level heights rise and
moisture returns to the Plains.  Temperatures by next weekend will
again climb back into the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

Line of storms is expected to rapidly develop later this afternoon
across eastern Kansas, ahead of a weak wave that is currently visible
as a band of altocumulus from GRI to SLN and west of ICT. While
timing is still somewhat uncertain, best guess at this time is that
this line of storms will approach the KS/MO state line around 00Z,
progressing toward IRK and COU toward 04Z, give or take a couple of
hours. These storms may be strong with large hail and severe wind
gusts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Hawblitzel
SHORT TERM...Hawblitzel
LONG TERM...Dux
AVIATION...Hawblitzel

000
FXUS63 KSGF 192102
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
402 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS REMAIN CAPPED DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS EVIDENT ON THE
20Z KSGF RAOB. AN AREA OF SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS...BUT WERE STRUGGLING TO OVERCOME THE CAP. LIGHT RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS EAST AND MAYBE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT WILL OCCUR.

FURTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THE CAP HAS WEAKENED AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE DRY
LINE. THESE STORMS ARE SUPERCELLS AIDED BY SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

THE CAP WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE 20Z KSGF RAOB SHOWS VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
DEEP LEVEL SHEAR WILL STILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS EVENING. VERY LARGE
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS.

CURRENTLY LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ON THE WEAK SIDE. TORNADOES ARE
STILL POSSIBLE WITH THE WEAK SHEAR DUE TO THE VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. HOWEVER...THESE WOULD TEND TO BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE. THIS
EVENING...THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS A LOW LEVEL JET
SPREADS INTO THE AREA. THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
STRONG TORNADO.

THERE IS GOOD COLD POOL POTENTIAL WITH THESE STORMS ALLOWING THE
STORMS TO CONGEAL INTO A LINE OF STORMS. THE QUESTION IS EXACTLY
WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR. CURRENTLY THINKING IS THIS WILL OCCUR NEAR
OR CLOSE TO THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE A
LINE DOES DEVELOP THERE COULD STILL BE EMBEDDED MESO VORT TORNADOES
WITHIN THE LINE OF STORMS ROUGHLY WEST OF A CASSVILLE TO WARSAW
MISSOURI LINE.

TO THE EAST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AND A LINE STORMS
WILL OCCUR. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH AND WILL SUPPORT A DAMAGING
WIND RISK. ALSO...THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR EMBEDDED SPIN UP
TORNADOES WITH IN THE LINE WITH ANY LINE SEGMENTS THAT MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE TORNADO RISK FOR THE AREA IS GOING TO GREATLY DEPEND
ON WHEN THE STORMS DEVELOP INTO A LINE.

THE GREATEST WIND RISK WILL GENERALLY BE A LONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
65 THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE LINE OF STORMS WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE
EASTERN OZARKS OVERNIGHT. THE WIND RISK WILL CONTINUE BUT WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE LINE OF STORMS WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS CONTINUE TO TAKE
SHAPE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND FLOODING.

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND
BECOME ORIENTED PARALLEL WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. IT APPEARS THAT MORE
THAN AMPLE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEER WILL BE IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY MONDAY EVENING AS A JET
STREAK COMES ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. THE RISK
FOR SEVERE WILL INCREASE IF SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING AND SUBSEQUENT
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.

PROGGED SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AS WELL
AS TRAINING CELLS. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PROLONGED SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT INCLUDING TORNADOES. THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE ENHANCED ALONG AND JUST OF THE SAGGING FRONG FROM SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

IN ADDITION A RICH SUPPLY OF MOISTURE WILL INTERACT  WITH THE FRONT
TO SUPPORT TORRENTIAL RATES. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT
INTERACTING WITH A LOW LEVEL JET...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
STORMS THE RISK FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

ON TUESDAY...MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST BUT IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION
WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY IF ANY CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
MODELS CONTINUE SUGGEST PERIODIC CHANCES OF CONVECTION AS MINOR
DISTURBANCES COME OVER THE RIDGE BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE ARE UNCERTAIN. OTHERWISE SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

PILOTS CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN AREAS OF
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOPING TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...WISE
SHORT TERM...HATCH
LONG TERM...HATCH
AVIATION...FOSTER

000
FXUS63 KLSX 192035
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
335 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

FOCUS FOR STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING IS BACK OVER EASTERN KS/WESTERN
MO...THEN HAVE THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVE EAST INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MO BY 03Z. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO FORECAST
AREA. 12Z MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH SOME FOCUSING MAIN AREA OF
STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70...WHILE OTHERS HAVE A LONG LINE OF
STORMS MOVE ACROSS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW HAVE AREA OF STORMS
MOVE ACROSS REGION...GRADUALLY WEAKENING/DIMINISHING TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...GOING FROM LIKELY POPS DOWN TO JUST CHANCE POPS BY 11Z.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA. AS FOR
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...DECENT CAPES/PWS...LOW LEVEL JET...AND
SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH AREA TONIGHT. SO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA STILL IN A SLIGHT RISK OVERNIGHT...WITH MAIN THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WINDS.

OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
MILD WEATHER TO PERSIST WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...WITH LOW 70S IN STL METRO AREA.

BYRD

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

CURRENT INDICATIONS BASED ON THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS IS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING FROM THE OVERNIGHT
MCS SHOULD BE IN A DRASTICALLY WEAKENED STATE AT DAYBREAK. GIVEN THAT THE
PRIMARY SHORT WAVE TROF WILL HAVE ALREADY ROTATED NEWD INTO IOWA
AND A VEERED WSWLY LLJ...ANY REMAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOST LIKELY BE LOCATED FROM SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL IL ACROSS
SE MO. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MORNING AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY AND GIVEN THE
TENDENCY TOWARDS CUMULIFORM CLOUDS...GOOD HEATING WILL COMMENCE.
THIS HEATING COMBINED WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY
AND WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY MID
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOA 40 KTS WOULD FAVOR
DISCRETE TO SEMI-DISCRETE SUPPERCELLS AS THE DOMINATE STORM MODE
INITIALLY. AT THIS WE ARE EXPECTING A FAVORED WSW-ENE CORIDOOR
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 21Z FROM AROUND JEFFERSON CITY TO
BOWLING GREEN...ALTHO THIS AXIS COULD BE A BIT FUTHER SOUTH
DEPENDING ON ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES. MERGERS AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS ZONE AND UPSTREAM SHOULD RESULT IN A MIX
OF STORM MODES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
STORMS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE SPREADS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INTO THE REGION...ALSO
CONTRIBUTING TO UPSCALE STORM GROWTH. THERE EVENTUALLY COULD BE A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT FROM CENTRAL THROUGH EAST CENTRAL MO DUE TO
PERSISTENT AND TRAINING CONVECTION...BUT THE EXACT LOCATION IS TOO
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS POINT.

THE CONVECTIVE DETAILS BECOME LESS DEFINED ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR RESIDUAL SHOWERS/STORMS FROM MONDAY NIGHT AND THE
PRESENCE OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FEATURING THE UPPER TROF PROGRESSING EASTWARD WITH THE ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT MOVING THRU THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
WOULD FAVOR HIGH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...ESPECIALLY THE SE HALF OF
THE CWA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS AND WEAK-MODERATE INSTABILITY
WOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR ORGANIZED-MIXED MODE SEVERE STORMS.

THE BOUNDARY FINALLY LOOKS TO PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY. THE PATTERN
THEN IS DOMINATED BY WEAK NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROF
AND LOOKS DRY THURSDAY NIGHT-SAT MORNING. THEREAFTER RETURN FLOW AND
WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING THRU THE PLAINS UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY WILL BRING A RE-NEWED CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS....ESPECIALLY THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA.

GLASS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

WITH STORMS OUT OF FORECAST AREA...HAVE DRY TAFS FOR NOW WITH
GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS...BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY THIS
EVENING. NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVITY TO FIRE UP OVER EASTERN KS/WESTERN
MO AND SLIDE EAST OVERNIGHT. STORMS TO REACH KCOU BY 04Z AND KUIN
BY 05Z...COULD SEE MVFR...HIGH END IFR VSBYS/CIGS WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS. AS FOR METRO AREA TAFS...STILL NOT SURE IF STORM COMPLEX WILL
HOLD TOGETHER...SO FOR NOW KEPT VCNTY TS AFTER 09Z. STORMS TO
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY 12Z MONDAY.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...WITH STORMS OUT OF FORECAST AREA...HAVE DRY TAFS
FOR NOW WITH GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS...BEFORE DIMINISHING
BY 03Z MONDAY. NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVITY TO FIRE UP OVER EASTERN
KS/WESTERN MO AND SLIDE EAST OVERNIGHT. STILL NOT SURE IF STORM
COMPLEX WILL HOLD TOGETHER AND MAKE IT INTO METRO AREA...SO FOR
NOW KEPT VCNTY TS AFTER 09Z. STORMS TO TAPER OFF BY 12Z
MONDAY...WITH NEXT ROUND FIRING UP BY 21Z MONDAY...SO ADDED VCTS
MENTION DURING THIS PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF FORECAST PERIOD.

BYRD

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KEAX 191945
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
245 PM CDT Sun May 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

Convection is already beginning to fire ahead of a north-south-
oriented wave over central KS. This wave will be the main player this
evening, and we still expect a line of supercells to develop just
ahead of it through late afternoon. This line should be near a TOP-
STJ line around 5 pm, into the KC metro between 6 pm and 9 pm and
toward Kirksville and Boonville between 9 pm and midnight.

Airmass has become moderately to strongly unstable, evident by 2600
J/kg of CAPE on the 18Z TOP sounding. This combined with a 50-60 kt
mid-level jet streak directly overhead will be more than supportive
of organized severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Still expect storms capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes to
develop over eastern KS which will transition into a line of storms
over far eastern KS or western MO and race into central MO overnight.
Latest models suggest this transition into linear or quasi-linear mode
may occur a bit earlier than previously thought, possibly as far west
as eastern KS. This line will be capable of producing widespread wind
damage and some embedded tornadoes. Better chances for strong
tornadoes now appear to be southwest of the forecast area, closer to
Wichita, where low-level wind fields will be a bit more supportive.
However, low-level shear will increase after 00Z across far western
MO, and this could support tornadoes embedded within a developing
QLCS as it tracks into Kansas City and points east. Any storms that
maintain supercell structure after 00Z will also have an enhanced
tornado threat.

Another potentially active day is in store for Monday as wind fields
remain supportive of severe storms. Much of the severe threat for
Monday depends on how far south and east the cold front pushes
overnight, and any lingering cloud debris that could cut back on
instability during the day. Models have trended slightly further east
with the location of the front, and thus the severe threat, which now
appears to be focused from near Clinton and Sedalia toward Macon and
points east. If strong instability can redevelop, shear profiles
support a severe line of storms capable of large hail and widespread
wind damage developing across these areas and spreading into eastern
MO and the Ozarks Monday evening. Heavy rain will also be a threat
with this line.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

Have lowered thunderstorm chances on Tuesday as latest guidances
indicates convection Monday night may shove effective boundary far
enough to the southeast to push highest chances of redevelopment
into the southeastern portions of the state.

Through Friday, temperatures will return to seasonal normal in the
70s, as high pressure remains in control.  Precipitation chances
begin to increase by next weekend as mid-level heights rise and
moisture returns to the Plains.  Temperatures by next weekend will
again climb back into the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

Line of storms is expected to rapidly develop later this afternoon
across eastern Kansas, ahead of a weak wave that is currently visible
as a band of altocumulus from GRI to SLN and west of ICT. While
timing is still somewhat uncertain, best guess at this time is that
this line of storms will approach the KS/MO state line around 00Z,
progressing toward IRK and COU toward 04Z, give or take a couple of
hours. These storms may be strong with large hail and severe wind
gusts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hawblitzel
LONG TERM...Dux
AVIATION...Hawblitzel