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000
FXUS63 KSGF 282333
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
633 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 227 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

This weekend will not be a wash out by any means...but we will
see isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorm
possible tonight through Sunday.

A weak frontal boundary is currently northwest of the area. A weak
upper mid level trough is currently moving south-southeastward
across the Midwest. This energy will shear off and a shear axis
will basically be overhead in the area or near by through the
weekend. This means there will be a potential for unorganized
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. The instability is not
terribly high and the Bulk shear values are also not that great.
The main hazards for tonight through Sunday will be a few
lightning strikes and brief heavy downpours. No severe weather is
anticipated at this time.

The greatest potential for scattered convection will be late
tonight across portions of southeast Kansas into southwestern
Missouri after midnight through sunrise tomorrow. This area will
gradually and slowly move east during the day on Saturday with the
greatest potential for scattered convection over the eastern half
of the Missouri Ozarks Saturday into Saturday night. Precipitation
chances will diminish to 20 percent or isolated by Sunday over
the eastern half of the area.

Added cloud cover will keep temperatures in check near or just
slightly below average with highs in the middle to upper 80s this
weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

12z model output is in decent agreement with the overall upper
level pattern next week. A broad ridge of high pressure will
spread across the Midwest. This will result in temperatures
returning to above average, and southerly winds will promote a
modest increase in humidity. Model consensus indicated 850mb
temperatures in the upper teens to around 20C nearly each day.
This correlates to high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s
and have positioned high temperatures around the 90 degree mark
all week.

Will need to keep an eye out for the location of a weak shear
axis aloft. This will be related to the disturbance that shears
out over the region this weekend. If this feature stays together
and sits overhead, this will result in a few diurnally driven
showers and storms. This will be no means be a washout scenario,
but something to keep in mind each afternoon/early evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 0623 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

An approaching cold front will bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms into southern Missouri late tonight and early
Saturday. Confidence is high enough in timing and coverage of this
activity to warrant a TEMPO group at all three southwest Missouri
TAF sites. MVFR conditions can be expected with any thunderstorms
with a brief stint of IFR also possible.

A low level jet stream will also develop and shift into the region
overnight resulting in low level wind shear conditions at both
Joplin and Springfield.

Showers and thunderstorms are then expected to shift east of the
area for a time later Saturday morning, but additional development
will then be possible in the afternoon. At this time, it appears
that the best chance for redevelopment will be in the vicinity of
the Springfield and Branson aerodromes. A PROB30 group was
inserted to cover this threat.

Outside of thunderstorms, surface winds will remain out of the
south to southeast below 12 knots.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann




000
FXUS63 KSGF 282333
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
633 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 227 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

This weekend will not be a wash out by any means...but we will
see isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorm
possible tonight through Sunday.

A weak frontal boundary is currently northwest of the area. A weak
upper mid level trough is currently moving south-southeastward
across the Midwest. This energy will shear off and a shear axis
will basically be overhead in the area or near by through the
weekend. This means there will be a potential for unorganized
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. The instability is not
terribly high and the Bulk shear values are also not that great.
The main hazards for tonight through Sunday will be a few
lightning strikes and brief heavy downpours. No severe weather is
anticipated at this time.

The greatest potential for scattered convection will be late
tonight across portions of southeast Kansas into southwestern
Missouri after midnight through sunrise tomorrow. This area will
gradually and slowly move east during the day on Saturday with the
greatest potential for scattered convection over the eastern half
of the Missouri Ozarks Saturday into Saturday night. Precipitation
chances will diminish to 20 percent or isolated by Sunday over
the eastern half of the area.

Added cloud cover will keep temperatures in check near or just
slightly below average with highs in the middle to upper 80s this
weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

12z model output is in decent agreement with the overall upper
level pattern next week. A broad ridge of high pressure will
spread across the Midwest. This will result in temperatures
returning to above average, and southerly winds will promote a
modest increase in humidity. Model consensus indicated 850mb
temperatures in the upper teens to around 20C nearly each day.
This correlates to high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s
and have positioned high temperatures around the 90 degree mark
all week.

Will need to keep an eye out for the location of a weak shear
axis aloft. This will be related to the disturbance that shears
out over the region this weekend. If this feature stays together
and sits overhead, this will result in a few diurnally driven
showers and storms. This will be no means be a washout scenario,
but something to keep in mind each afternoon/early evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 0623 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

An approaching cold front will bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms into southern Missouri late tonight and early
Saturday. Confidence is high enough in timing and coverage of this
activity to warrant a TEMPO group at all three southwest Missouri
TAF sites. MVFR conditions can be expected with any thunderstorms
with a brief stint of IFR also possible.

A low level jet stream will also develop and shift into the region
overnight resulting in low level wind shear conditions at both
Joplin and Springfield.

Showers and thunderstorms are then expected to shift east of the
area for a time later Saturday morning, but additional development
will then be possible in the afternoon. At this time, it appears
that the best chance for redevelopment will be in the vicinity of
the Springfield and Branson aerodromes. A PROB30 group was
inserted to cover this threat.

Outside of thunderstorms, surface winds will remain out of the
south to southeast below 12 knots.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann



000
FXUS63 KSGF 282333
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
633 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 227 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

This weekend will not be a wash out by any means...but we will
see isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorm
possible tonight through Sunday.

A weak frontal boundary is currently northwest of the area. A weak
upper mid level trough is currently moving south-southeastward
across the Midwest. This energy will shear off and a shear axis
will basically be overhead in the area or near by through the
weekend. This means there will be a potential for unorganized
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. The instability is not
terribly high and the Bulk shear values are also not that great.
The main hazards for tonight through Sunday will be a few
lightning strikes and brief heavy downpours. No severe weather is
anticipated at this time.

The greatest potential for scattered convection will be late
tonight across portions of southeast Kansas into southwestern
Missouri after midnight through sunrise tomorrow. This area will
gradually and slowly move east during the day on Saturday with the
greatest potential for scattered convection over the eastern half
of the Missouri Ozarks Saturday into Saturday night. Precipitation
chances will diminish to 20 percent or isolated by Sunday over
the eastern half of the area.

Added cloud cover will keep temperatures in check near or just
slightly below average with highs in the middle to upper 80s this
weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

12z model output is in decent agreement with the overall upper
level pattern next week. A broad ridge of high pressure will
spread across the Midwest. This will result in temperatures
returning to above average, and southerly winds will promote a
modest increase in humidity. Model consensus indicated 850mb
temperatures in the upper teens to around 20C nearly each day.
This correlates to high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s
and have positioned high temperatures around the 90 degree mark
all week.

Will need to keep an eye out for the location of a weak shear
axis aloft. This will be related to the disturbance that shears
out over the region this weekend. If this feature stays together
and sits overhead, this will result in a few diurnally driven
showers and storms. This will be no means be a washout scenario,
but something to keep in mind each afternoon/early evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 0623 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

An approaching cold front will bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms into southern Missouri late tonight and early
Saturday. Confidence is high enough in timing and coverage of this
activity to warrant a TEMPO group at all three southwest Missouri
TAF sites. MVFR conditions can be expected with any thunderstorms
with a brief stint of IFR also possible.

A low level jet stream will also develop and shift into the region
overnight resulting in low level wind shear conditions at both
Joplin and Springfield.

Showers and thunderstorms are then expected to shift east of the
area for a time later Saturday morning, but additional development
will then be possible in the afternoon. At this time, it appears
that the best chance for redevelopment will be in the vicinity of
the Springfield and Branson aerodromes. A PROB30 group was
inserted to cover this threat.

Outside of thunderstorms, surface winds will remain out of the
south to southeast below 12 knots.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann



000
FXUS63 KSGF 282333
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
633 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 227 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

This weekend will not be a wash out by any means...but we will
see isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorm
possible tonight through Sunday.

A weak frontal boundary is currently northwest of the area. A weak
upper mid level trough is currently moving south-southeastward
across the Midwest. This energy will shear off and a shear axis
will basically be overhead in the area or near by through the
weekend. This means there will be a potential for unorganized
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. The instability is not
terribly high and the Bulk shear values are also not that great.
The main hazards for tonight through Sunday will be a few
lightning strikes and brief heavy downpours. No severe weather is
anticipated at this time.

The greatest potential for scattered convection will be late
tonight across portions of southeast Kansas into southwestern
Missouri after midnight through sunrise tomorrow. This area will
gradually and slowly move east during the day on Saturday with the
greatest potential for scattered convection over the eastern half
of the Missouri Ozarks Saturday into Saturday night. Precipitation
chances will diminish to 20 percent or isolated by Sunday over
the eastern half of the area.

Added cloud cover will keep temperatures in check near or just
slightly below average with highs in the middle to upper 80s this
weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

12z model output is in decent agreement with the overall upper
level pattern next week. A broad ridge of high pressure will
spread across the Midwest. This will result in temperatures
returning to above average, and southerly winds will promote a
modest increase in humidity. Model consensus indicated 850mb
temperatures in the upper teens to around 20C nearly each day.
This correlates to high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s
and have positioned high temperatures around the 90 degree mark
all week.

Will need to keep an eye out for the location of a weak shear
axis aloft. This will be related to the disturbance that shears
out over the region this weekend. If this feature stays together
and sits overhead, this will result in a few diurnally driven
showers and storms. This will be no means be a washout scenario,
but something to keep in mind each afternoon/early evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 0623 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

An approaching cold front will bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms into southern Missouri late tonight and early
Saturday. Confidence is high enough in timing and coverage of this
activity to warrant a TEMPO group at all three southwest Missouri
TAF sites. MVFR conditions can be expected with any thunderstorms
with a brief stint of IFR also possible.

A low level jet stream will also develop and shift into the region
overnight resulting in low level wind shear conditions at both
Joplin and Springfield.

Showers and thunderstorms are then expected to shift east of the
area for a time later Saturday morning, but additional development
will then be possible in the afternoon. At this time, it appears
that the best chance for redevelopment will be in the vicinity of
the Springfield and Branson aerodromes. A PROB30 group was
inserted to cover this threat.

Outside of thunderstorms, surface winds will remain out of the
south to southeast below 12 knots.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KEAX 282327
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
627 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 409 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Tonight...

Positive tilted shortwave trough as noted in satellite imagery from
IA through KS will slide east tonight. Scattered convection will
form along an associated cold front within a moderately
unstable airmass....at least it will be into the early evening
hours.

A narrow band of convection has finally formed over east
central KS where MLCAPES between 1500-2000J/kg are noted. Further
northeast VFR ceilings within the warm sector have pretty much
capped intense convection as radar shows sputtering area of low
topped showers. The east central KS activity may be the only region
which develops deep convection, albeit the non-severe variety. Will
hit PoPs highest over northern and west central counties until a few
hours after sunset. Thereafter expect a fairly quick drop off in
intensity and coverage as instability hits the skids. Believe the
trend of the HRRR and 12z NAM looks reasonable. QPF will also be
muted. Could see isolated showers form after the passage of the
frontal convection and last into the pre-dawn hours.

Saturday - Sunday...

The above shortwave is expected to flounder over the Mid MO Valley
over the weekend. The h7 shortwave trough will be slow to exit the
CWA resulting in a general region of uvv over the eastern 1/2 of the
CWA. Thinking there will be sufficient breaks in the overcast such
that isolated instability showers/storms will be possible Saturday
afternoon over parts of northeast and central MO. Current
temperature forecast may be a bit too optimistic should the
afternoon clouds fail to break up.

Sunday looks dry with a slight warm-up as the mid level trough
washes out.

Monday - Friday...

The operational models transition to a broadening southwesterly flow
pattern after the upper level ridge axis leans over into the Central
Plains. This will allow warmer more seasonal temperatures and
humidity back into the region. While the h7 temperatures don`t get
overly hot and cap off the environment a lack of any discernible
mid/upper level wave or surface boundaries will greatly limit the
rain chances. As such will go with a dry forecast until some feature
of significance is picked up by the models.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Line of convection along approaching cold front beginning to
dissipate this evening. As such...have decided to play a wait and see
approach by maintaining a VCTS mention for now. Its conceivable much
of the precip will pass north of KC area terminals. Otherwise...main
concern heading into the early morning hrs will be the possibility of
developing low stratus. Models seem pretty insistent on this
possibility...but the main question is whether low cigs will extend
far enough south to impact the KC terminals. For now...have offered a
SCT008 mention at MCI...and will reevaluate with the 6z package after
00z model guidance arrives.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...32




000
FXUS63 KEAX 282327
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
627 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 409 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Tonight...

Positive tilted shortwave trough as noted in satellite imagery from
IA through KS will slide east tonight. Scattered convection will
form along an associated cold front within a moderately
unstable airmass....at least it will be into the early evening
hours.

A narrow band of convection has finally formed over east
central KS where MLCAPES between 1500-2000J/kg are noted. Further
northeast VFR ceilings within the warm sector have pretty much
capped intense convection as radar shows sputtering area of low
topped showers. The east central KS activity may be the only region
which develops deep convection, albeit the non-severe variety. Will
hit PoPs highest over northern and west central counties until a few
hours after sunset. Thereafter expect a fairly quick drop off in
intensity and coverage as instability hits the skids. Believe the
trend of the HRRR and 12z NAM looks reasonable. QPF will also be
muted. Could see isolated showers form after the passage of the
frontal convection and last into the pre-dawn hours.

Saturday - Sunday...

The above shortwave is expected to flounder over the Mid MO Valley
over the weekend. The h7 shortwave trough will be slow to exit the
CWA resulting in a general region of uvv over the eastern 1/2 of the
CWA. Thinking there will be sufficient breaks in the overcast such
that isolated instability showers/storms will be possible Saturday
afternoon over parts of northeast and central MO. Current
temperature forecast may be a bit too optimistic should the
afternoon clouds fail to break up.

Sunday looks dry with a slight warm-up as the mid level trough
washes out.

Monday - Friday...

The operational models transition to a broadening southwesterly flow
pattern after the upper level ridge axis leans over into the Central
Plains. This will allow warmer more seasonal temperatures and
humidity back into the region. While the h7 temperatures don`t get
overly hot and cap off the environment a lack of any discernible
mid/upper level wave or surface boundaries will greatly limit the
rain chances. As such will go with a dry forecast until some feature
of significance is picked up by the models.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Line of convection along approaching cold front beginning to
dissipate this evening. As such...have decided to play a wait and see
approach by maintaining a VCTS mention for now. Its conceivable much
of the precip will pass north of KC area terminals. Otherwise...main
concern heading into the early morning hrs will be the possibility of
developing low stratus. Models seem pretty insistent on this
possibility...but the main question is whether low cigs will extend
far enough south to impact the KC terminals. For now...have offered a
SCT008 mention at MCI...and will reevaluate with the 6z package after
00z model guidance arrives.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...32


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KLSX 282223
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
523 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS MISSOURI AT THIS HOUR.  LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP SUGGEST
THAT IT WILL TAKE ALL EVENING FOR THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE TO REACH
HALFWAY ACROSS THE CWA WHILE A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER WESTERN
MISSOURI BEHIND IT LATER TONIGHT.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI BY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL JET VEERS AND INCREASES IN SPEED SLIGHTLY.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OVER THE REGION BECAUSE OF THE FORCING
FROM THE SHORTWAVES AND THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.  THE 1KM
REFLECTIVITY FROM THE CAMS DEPICTS THIS PRETTY WELL.

MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE INCREASING DEWPOINTS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR AREA. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE
COLD FRONT WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL
BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. ONLY SLIGHT COOLING IS EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE REST OF THE AREA SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY WITH MAINLY A WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL LESSEN BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THERE MAY STILL BE AT LEAST ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHWEST IL AS THE
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SHEAR AXIS MOVES ONLY SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD. A WAMER PERIOD OF WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
WORK WEEK DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE/850 MB RIDGE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...AND AT
LEAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS NORTHWEST MO. WILL KEEP THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH COULD NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME WEAK MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING...SHEAR AXIS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST MO AND
SOUTHWEST IL.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 519 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SLOW MOVING TROF OF LOW PRESSURE AND SEVERAL UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCES WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE
THE VISIBILITY AND CEILING AT A TERMINAL. LIGHT SOUTHEAST/SOUTH
WIND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE NEAR THE TERMINAL COMPLEX AROUND
12Z WITH THE THREAT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING
THE HEAT OF THE DAY...OR AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF RAIN
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST OUTSIDE OF VICINITY
AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 282223
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
523 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS MISSOURI AT THIS HOUR.  LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP SUGGEST
THAT IT WILL TAKE ALL EVENING FOR THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE TO REACH
HALFWAY ACROSS THE CWA WHILE A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER WESTERN
MISSOURI BEHIND IT LATER TONIGHT.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI BY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL JET VEERS AND INCREASES IN SPEED SLIGHTLY.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OVER THE REGION BECAUSE OF THE FORCING
FROM THE SHORTWAVES AND THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.  THE 1KM
REFLECTIVITY FROM THE CAMS DEPICTS THIS PRETTY WELL.

MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE INCREASING DEWPOINTS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR AREA. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE
COLD FRONT WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL
BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. ONLY SLIGHT COOLING IS EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE REST OF THE AREA SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY WITH MAINLY A WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL LESSEN BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THERE MAY STILL BE AT LEAST ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHWEST IL AS THE
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SHEAR AXIS MOVES ONLY SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD. A WAMER PERIOD OF WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
WORK WEEK DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE/850 MB RIDGE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...AND AT
LEAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS NORTHWEST MO. WILL KEEP THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH COULD NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME WEAK MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING...SHEAR AXIS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST MO AND
SOUTHWEST IL.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 519 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SLOW MOVING TROF OF LOW PRESSURE AND SEVERAL UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCES WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE
THE VISIBILITY AND CEILING AT A TERMINAL. LIGHT SOUTHEAST/SOUTH
WIND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE NEAR THE TERMINAL COMPLEX AROUND
12Z WITH THE THREAT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING
THE HEAT OF THE DAY...OR AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF RAIN
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST OUTSIDE OF VICINITY
AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KEAX 282109
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
409 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 409 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Tonight...

Positive tilted shortwave trough as noted in satellite imagery from
IA through KS will slide east tonight. Scattered convection will
form along an associated cold front within a moderately
unstable airmass....at least it will be into the early evening
hours.

A narrow band of convection has finally formed over east
central KS where MLCAPES between 1500-2000J/kg are noted. Further
northeast VFR ceilings within the warm sector have pretty much
capped intense convection as radar shows sputtering area of low
topped showers. The east central KS activity may be the only region
which develops deep convection, albeit the non-severe variety. Will
hit PoPs highest over northern and west central counties until a few
hours after sunset. Thereafter expect a fairly quick drop off in
intensity and coverage as instability hits the skids. Believe the
trend of the HRRR and 12z NAM looks reasonable. QPF will also be
muted. Could see isolated showers form after the passage of the
frontal convection and last into the pre-dawn hours.

Saturday - Sunday...

The above shortwave is expected to flounder over the Mid MO Valley
over the weekend. The h7 shortwave trough will be slow to exit the
CWA resulting in a general region of uvv over the eastern 1/2 of the
CWA. Thinking there will be sufficient breaks in the overcast such
that isolated instability showers/storms will be possible Saturday
afternoon over parts of northeast and central MO. Current
temperature forecast may be a bit too optimistic should the
afternoon clouds fail to break up.

Sunday looks dry with a slight warm-up as the mid level trough
washes out.

Monday - Friday...

The operational models transition to a broadening southwesterly flow
pattern after the upper level ridge axis leans over into the Central
Plains. This will allow warmer more seasonal temperatures and
humidity back into the region. While the h7 temperatures don`t get
overly hot and cap off the environment a lack of any discernible
mid/upper level wave or surface boundaries will greatly limit the
rain chances. As such will go with a dry forecast until some feature
of significance is picked up by the models.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Isolated light afternoon showers east of I-35. VFR conditions through
the afternoon hours. Otherwise, scattered convection expected to form
by late afternoon over northwest MO and northeast KS along or just
ahead of a cold front. Activity expected to advance southeast through
the early evening hours but weaken after sunset. Except for a brief
period of MVFR ceilings with the strongest storms over northwest MO
expect VFR ceilings. Timing remains too uncertain for a 2hr TEMPO
group for the Kansas City terminals.

Should see MVFR ceilings follow with the passage of the cold front.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ



000
FXUS63 KLSX 282044
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
344 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS MISSOURI AT THIS HOUR.  LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP SUGGEST
THAT IT WILL TAKE ALL EVENING FOR THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE TO REACH
HALFWAY ACROSS THE CWA WHILE A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER WESTERN
MISSOURI BEHIND IT LATER TONIGHT.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI BY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL JET VEERS AND INCREASES IN SPEED SLIGHTLY.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OVER THE REGION BECAUSE OF THE FORCING
FROM THE SHORTWAVES AND THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.  THE 1KM
REFLECTIVITY FROM THE CAMS DEPICTS THIS PRETTY WELL.

MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE INCREASING DEWPOINTS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR AREA. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE
COLD FRONT WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL
BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. ONLY SLIGHT COOLING IS EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE REST OF THE AREA SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY WITH MAINLY A WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL LESSEN BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THERE MAY STILL BE AT LEAST ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHWEST IL AS THE
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SHEAR AXIS MOVES ONLY SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD. A WAMER PERIOD OF WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
WORK WEEK DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE/850 MB RIDGE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...AND AT
LEAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS NORTHWEST MO. WILL KEEP THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH COULD NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME WEAK MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING...SHEAR AXIS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST MO AND
SOUTHWEST IL.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT
THAT WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA ON
SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AROUND THE ST. LOUIS METRO TAF SITES.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

BRITT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 282044
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
344 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS MISSOURI AT THIS HOUR.  LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP SUGGEST
THAT IT WILL TAKE ALL EVENING FOR THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE TO REACH
HALFWAY ACROSS THE CWA WHILE A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER WESTERN
MISSOURI BEHIND IT LATER TONIGHT.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI BY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL JET VEERS AND INCREASES IN SPEED SLIGHTLY.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OVER THE REGION BECAUSE OF THE FORCING
FROM THE SHORTWAVES AND THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.  THE 1KM
REFLECTIVITY FROM THE CAMS DEPICTS THIS PRETTY WELL.

MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE INCREASING DEWPOINTS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR AREA. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE
COLD FRONT WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL
BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. ONLY SLIGHT COOLING IS EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE REST OF THE AREA SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY WITH MAINLY A WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL LESSEN BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THERE MAY STILL BE AT LEAST ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHWEST IL AS THE
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SHEAR AXIS MOVES ONLY SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD. A WAMER PERIOD OF WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
WORK WEEK DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE/850 MB RIDGE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...AND AT
LEAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS NORTHWEST MO. WILL KEEP THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH COULD NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME WEAK MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING...SHEAR AXIS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST MO AND
SOUTHWEST IL.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT
THAT WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA ON
SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AROUND THE ST. LOUIS METRO TAF SITES.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

BRITT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 282044
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
344 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS MISSOURI AT THIS HOUR.  LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP SUGGEST
THAT IT WILL TAKE ALL EVENING FOR THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE TO REACH
HALFWAY ACROSS THE CWA WHILE A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER WESTERN
MISSOURI BEHIND IT LATER TONIGHT.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI BY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL JET VEERS AND INCREASES IN SPEED SLIGHTLY.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OVER THE REGION BECAUSE OF THE FORCING
FROM THE SHORTWAVES AND THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.  THE 1KM
REFLECTIVITY FROM THE CAMS DEPICTS THIS PRETTY WELL.

MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE INCREASING DEWPOINTS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR AREA. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE
COLD FRONT WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL
BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. ONLY SLIGHT COOLING IS EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE REST OF THE AREA SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY WITH MAINLY A WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL LESSEN BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THERE MAY STILL BE AT LEAST ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHWEST IL AS THE
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SHEAR AXIS MOVES ONLY SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD. A WAMER PERIOD OF WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
WORK WEEK DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE/850 MB RIDGE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...AND AT
LEAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS NORTHWEST MO. WILL KEEP THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH COULD NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME WEAK MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING...SHEAR AXIS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST MO AND
SOUTHWEST IL.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT
THAT WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA ON
SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AROUND THE ST. LOUIS METRO TAF SITES.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

BRITT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 282044
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
344 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS MISSOURI AT THIS HOUR.  LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP SUGGEST
THAT IT WILL TAKE ALL EVENING FOR THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE TO REACH
HALFWAY ACROSS THE CWA WHILE A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER WESTERN
MISSOURI BEHIND IT LATER TONIGHT.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI BY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL JET VEERS AND INCREASES IN SPEED SLIGHTLY.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OVER THE REGION BECAUSE OF THE FORCING
FROM THE SHORTWAVES AND THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.  THE 1KM
REFLECTIVITY FROM THE CAMS DEPICTS THIS PRETTY WELL.

MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE INCREASING DEWPOINTS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR AREA. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE
COLD FRONT WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL
BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. ONLY SLIGHT COOLING IS EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE REST OF THE AREA SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY WITH MAINLY A WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL LESSEN BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THERE MAY STILL BE AT LEAST ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHWEST IL AS THE
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SHEAR AXIS MOVES ONLY SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD. A WAMER PERIOD OF WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
WORK WEEK DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE/850 MB RIDGE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...AND AT
LEAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS NORTHWEST MO. WILL KEEP THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH COULD NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME WEAK MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING...SHEAR AXIS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST MO AND
SOUTHWEST IL.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT
THAT WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA ON
SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AROUND THE ST. LOUIS METRO TAF SITES.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

BRITT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 282016
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
316 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS MISSOURI AT THIS HOUR.  LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP SUGGEST
THAT IT WILL TAKE ALL EVENING FOR THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE TO REACH
HALFWAY ACROSS THE CWA WHILE A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER WESTERN
MISSOURI BEHIND IT LATER TONIGHT.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI BY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL JET VEERS AND INCREASES IN SPEED SLIGHTLY.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OVER THE REGION BECAUSE OF THE FORCING
FROM THE SHORTWAVES AND THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.  THE 1KM
REFLECTIVITY FROM THE CAMS DEPICTS THIS PRETTY WELL.

MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE INCREASING DEWPOINTS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE THAT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT TO SLOWLY EXPAND OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA
TONIGHT...WITH THE STL METRO LIKELY ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
THREAT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.  DUE TO PROGGED LOW LEVEL
FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HAVE UPPED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY
OVER OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

HOWEVER...FROM SATURDAY MORNING ON FEATURES AND MODEL SPECIFICS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE AND BECOME INCREASING NEBULOUS.  WHILE MODELS DO
AGREE THAT NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY...THEY DISAGREE WITH THEIR
HANDLING OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS IT
STRETCHES SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY MERGING WITH ANOTHER WEAK
CIRCULATION ALONG THE GULF COAST (WHICH APPEARS TO ORIGINATE WITH
A BIT OF ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF FROM THE BASE OF THE CURRENT EAST
COAST TROF). GFS AND NAM SUGGEST SOME TYPE OF REMNANT CIRCULATION
TAKING UP RESIDENCE IN THE VICINITY OF SW MO BY SUNDAY WITH
RESIDUAL SURFACE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE AREA...WHILE
ECMWF WANTS TO PUSH THE INCREASINGLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH WITH TIME.

IF NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS DO COME TO FRUITION ON SUNDAY...AND IF NAM
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST (WHICH IS OFTEN TOO HIGH) ALSO
VERIFIES...THEN THE DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN JEOPARDY.
HOWEVER...WOULD LIKE TO SEE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THESE WEAK
FEATURES AND TRENDS BEFORE REINTRODUCING CONVECTION ON SUNDAY.  SO
FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND THE FORECAST TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION...NAMELY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPANDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM
NW TO SE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE THE DISCREPANCY IN THE UA PROGS ON SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT WESTERN RIDGE WILL BE EXPANDING EAST INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SHOULD
MEAN DRY WEATHER FOR THE FA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
TO LATE SUMMER LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S.

TRUETT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT
THAT WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA ON
SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AROUND THE ST. LOUIS METRO TAF SITES.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

BRITT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 282016
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
316 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS MISSOURI AT THIS HOUR.  LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP SUGGEST
THAT IT WILL TAKE ALL EVENING FOR THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE TO REACH
HALFWAY ACROSS THE CWA WHILE A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER WESTERN
MISSOURI BEHIND IT LATER TONIGHT.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI BY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL JET VEERS AND INCREASES IN SPEED SLIGHTLY.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OVER THE REGION BECAUSE OF THE FORCING
FROM THE SHORTWAVES AND THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.  THE 1KM
REFLECTIVITY FROM THE CAMS DEPICTS THIS PRETTY WELL.

MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE INCREASING DEWPOINTS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE THAT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT TO SLOWLY EXPAND OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA
TONIGHT...WITH THE STL METRO LIKELY ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
THREAT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.  DUE TO PROGGED LOW LEVEL
FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HAVE UPPED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY
OVER OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

HOWEVER...FROM SATURDAY MORNING ON FEATURES AND MODEL SPECIFICS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE AND BECOME INCREASING NEBULOUS.  WHILE MODELS DO
AGREE THAT NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY...THEY DISAGREE WITH THEIR
HANDLING OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS IT
STRETCHES SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY MERGING WITH ANOTHER WEAK
CIRCULATION ALONG THE GULF COAST (WHICH APPEARS TO ORIGINATE WITH
A BIT OF ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF FROM THE BASE OF THE CURRENT EAST
COAST TROF). GFS AND NAM SUGGEST SOME TYPE OF REMNANT CIRCULATION
TAKING UP RESIDENCE IN THE VICINITY OF SW MO BY SUNDAY WITH
RESIDUAL SURFACE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE AREA...WHILE
ECMWF WANTS TO PUSH THE INCREASINGLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH WITH TIME.

IF NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS DO COME TO FRUITION ON SUNDAY...AND IF NAM
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST (WHICH IS OFTEN TOO HIGH) ALSO
VERIFIES...THEN THE DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN JEOPARDY.
HOWEVER...WOULD LIKE TO SEE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THESE WEAK
FEATURES AND TRENDS BEFORE REINTRODUCING CONVECTION ON SUNDAY.  SO
FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND THE FORECAST TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION...NAMELY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPANDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM
NW TO SE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE THE DISCREPANCY IN THE UA PROGS ON SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT WESTERN RIDGE WILL BE EXPANDING EAST INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SHOULD
MEAN DRY WEATHER FOR THE FA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
TO LATE SUMMER LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S.

TRUETT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT
THAT WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA ON
SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AROUND THE ST. LOUIS METRO TAF SITES.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

BRITT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 282016
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
316 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS MISSOURI AT THIS HOUR.  LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP SUGGEST
THAT IT WILL TAKE ALL EVENING FOR THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE TO REACH
HALFWAY ACROSS THE CWA WHILE A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER WESTERN
MISSOURI BEHIND IT LATER TONIGHT.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI BY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL JET VEERS AND INCREASES IN SPEED SLIGHTLY.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OVER THE REGION BECAUSE OF THE FORCING
FROM THE SHORTWAVES AND THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.  THE 1KM
REFLECTIVITY FROM THE CAMS DEPICTS THIS PRETTY WELL.

MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE INCREASING DEWPOINTS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE THAT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT TO SLOWLY EXPAND OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA
TONIGHT...WITH THE STL METRO LIKELY ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
THREAT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.  DUE TO PROGGED LOW LEVEL
FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HAVE UPPED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY
OVER OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

HOWEVER...FROM SATURDAY MORNING ON FEATURES AND MODEL SPECIFICS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE AND BECOME INCREASING NEBULOUS.  WHILE MODELS DO
AGREE THAT NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY...THEY DISAGREE WITH THEIR
HANDLING OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS IT
STRETCHES SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY MERGING WITH ANOTHER WEAK
CIRCULATION ALONG THE GULF COAST (WHICH APPEARS TO ORIGINATE WITH
A BIT OF ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF FROM THE BASE OF THE CURRENT EAST
COAST TROF). GFS AND NAM SUGGEST SOME TYPE OF REMNANT CIRCULATION
TAKING UP RESIDENCE IN THE VICINITY OF SW MO BY SUNDAY WITH
RESIDUAL SURFACE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE AREA...WHILE
ECMWF WANTS TO PUSH THE INCREASINGLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH WITH TIME.

IF NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS DO COME TO FRUITION ON SUNDAY...AND IF NAM
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST (WHICH IS OFTEN TOO HIGH) ALSO
VERIFIES...THEN THE DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN JEOPARDY.
HOWEVER...WOULD LIKE TO SEE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THESE WEAK
FEATURES AND TRENDS BEFORE REINTRODUCING CONVECTION ON SUNDAY.  SO
FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND THE FORECAST TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION...NAMELY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPANDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM
NW TO SE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE THE DISCREPANCY IN THE UA PROGS ON SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT WESTERN RIDGE WILL BE EXPANDING EAST INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SHOULD
MEAN DRY WEATHER FOR THE FA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
TO LATE SUMMER LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S.

TRUETT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT
THAT WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA ON
SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AROUND THE ST. LOUIS METRO TAF SITES.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

BRITT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 282016
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
316 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS MISSOURI AT THIS HOUR.  LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP SUGGEST
THAT IT WILL TAKE ALL EVENING FOR THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE TO REACH
HALFWAY ACROSS THE CWA WHILE A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER WESTERN
MISSOURI BEHIND IT LATER TONIGHT.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI BY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL JET VEERS AND INCREASES IN SPEED SLIGHTLY.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OVER THE REGION BECAUSE OF THE FORCING
FROM THE SHORTWAVES AND THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.  THE 1KM
REFLECTIVITY FROM THE CAMS DEPICTS THIS PRETTY WELL.

MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE INCREASING DEWPOINTS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE THAT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT TO SLOWLY EXPAND OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA
TONIGHT...WITH THE STL METRO LIKELY ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
THREAT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.  DUE TO PROGGED LOW LEVEL
FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HAVE UPPED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY
OVER OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

HOWEVER...FROM SATURDAY MORNING ON FEATURES AND MODEL SPECIFICS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE AND BECOME INCREASING NEBULOUS.  WHILE MODELS DO
AGREE THAT NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY...THEY DISAGREE WITH THEIR
HANDLING OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS IT
STRETCHES SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY MERGING WITH ANOTHER WEAK
CIRCULATION ALONG THE GULF COAST (WHICH APPEARS TO ORIGINATE WITH
A BIT OF ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF FROM THE BASE OF THE CURRENT EAST
COAST TROF). GFS AND NAM SUGGEST SOME TYPE OF REMNANT CIRCULATION
TAKING UP RESIDENCE IN THE VICINITY OF SW MO BY SUNDAY WITH
RESIDUAL SURFACE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE AREA...WHILE
ECMWF WANTS TO PUSH THE INCREASINGLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH WITH TIME.

IF NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS DO COME TO FRUITION ON SUNDAY...AND IF NAM
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST (WHICH IS OFTEN TOO HIGH) ALSO
VERIFIES...THEN THE DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN JEOPARDY.
HOWEVER...WOULD LIKE TO SEE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THESE WEAK
FEATURES AND TRENDS BEFORE REINTRODUCING CONVECTION ON SUNDAY.  SO
FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND THE FORECAST TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION...NAMELY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPANDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM
NW TO SE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE THE DISCREPANCY IN THE UA PROGS ON SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT WESTERN RIDGE WILL BE EXPANDING EAST INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SHOULD
MEAN DRY WEATHER FOR THE FA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
TO LATE SUMMER LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S.

TRUETT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT
THAT WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA ON
SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AROUND THE ST. LOUIS METRO TAF SITES.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

BRITT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KSGF 281927
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
227 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 227 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

This weekend will not be a wash out by any means...but we will
see isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorm
possible tonight through Sunday.

A weak frontal boundary is currently northwest of the area. A weak
upper mid level trough is currently moving south-southeastward
across the Midwest. This energy will shear off and a shear axis
will basically be overhead in the area or near by through the
weekend. This means there will be a potential for unorganized
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. The instability is not
terribly high and the Bulk shear values are also not that great.
The main hazards for tonight through Sunday will be a few
lightning strikes and brief heavy downpours. No severe weather is
anticipated at this time.

The greatest potential for scattered convection will be late
tonight across portions of southeast Kansas into southwestern
Missouri after midnight through sunrise tomorrow. This area will
gradually and slowly move east during the day on Saturday with the
greatest potential for scattered convection over the eastern half
of the Missouri Ozarks Saturday into Saturday night. Precipitation
chances will diminish to 20 percent or isolated by Sunday over
the eastern half of the area.

Added cloud cover will keep temperatures in check near or just
slightly below average with highs in the middle to upper 80s this
weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

12z model output is in decent agreement with the overall upper
level pattern next week. A broad ridge of high pressure will
spread across the Midwest. This will result in temperatures
returning to above average, and southerly winds will promote a
modest increase in humidity. Model consensus indicated 850mb
temperatures in the upper teens to around 20C nearly each day.
This correlates to high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s
and have positioned high temperatures around the 90 degree mark
all week.

Will need to keep an eye out for the location of a weak shear
axis aloft. This will be related to the disturbance that shears
out over the region this weekend. If this feature stays together
and sits overhead, this will result in a few diurnally driven
showers and storms. This will be no means be a washout scenario,
but something to keep in mind each afternoon/early evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Mostly VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours for
pilots flying in and out of the Missouri Ozarks region. Mid and
high cloudiness will continue through tomorrow morning. A weak
front will try to develop a scattered thunderstorms between 06z to
14z tonight and tomorrow morning. Have mentioned PROB30 groups for
this potential at area TAF sites with a brief drop in visibilities
to MVFR under heavier showers. Otherwise southerly winds will be
a little breezy this afternoon up to 12kts and light breeze
continuing through tomorrow morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Griffin



000
FXUS63 KSGF 281927
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
227 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 227 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

This weekend will not be a wash out by any means...but we will
see isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorm
possible tonight through Sunday.

A weak frontal boundary is currently northwest of the area. A weak
upper mid level trough is currently moving south-southeastward
across the Midwest. This energy will shear off and a shear axis
will basically be overhead in the area or near by through the
weekend. This means there will be a potential for unorganized
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. The instability is not
terribly high and the Bulk shear values are also not that great.
The main hazards for tonight through Sunday will be a few
lightning strikes and brief heavy downpours. No severe weather is
anticipated at this time.

The greatest potential for scattered convection will be late
tonight across portions of southeast Kansas into southwestern
Missouri after midnight through sunrise tomorrow. This area will
gradually and slowly move east during the day on Saturday with the
greatest potential for scattered convection over the eastern half
of the Missouri Ozarks Saturday into Saturday night. Precipitation
chances will diminish to 20 percent or isolated by Sunday over
the eastern half of the area.

Added cloud cover will keep temperatures in check near or just
slightly below average with highs in the middle to upper 80s this
weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

12z model output is in decent agreement with the overall upper
level pattern next week. A broad ridge of high pressure will
spread across the Midwest. This will result in temperatures
returning to above average, and southerly winds will promote a
modest increase in humidity. Model consensus indicated 850mb
temperatures in the upper teens to around 20C nearly each day.
This correlates to high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s
and have positioned high temperatures around the 90 degree mark
all week.

Will need to keep an eye out for the location of a weak shear
axis aloft. This will be related to the disturbance that shears
out over the region this weekend. If this feature stays together
and sits overhead, this will result in a few diurnally driven
showers and storms. This will be no means be a washout scenario,
but something to keep in mind each afternoon/early evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Mostly VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours for
pilots flying in and out of the Missouri Ozarks region. Mid and
high cloudiness will continue through tomorrow morning. A weak
front will try to develop a scattered thunderstorms between 06z to
14z tonight and tomorrow morning. Have mentioned PROB30 groups for
this potential at area TAF sites with a brief drop in visibilities
to MVFR under heavier showers. Otherwise southerly winds will be
a little breezy this afternoon up to 12kts and light breeze
continuing through tomorrow morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Griffin




000
FXUS63 KEAX 281759
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1259 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Early this morning,  an area of showers and thunderstorms
extending from NW Missouri back west into central Kansas and SE
Nebraska where a cold front resides continues to push eastward.
These storms are being fueled by warm air advection ahead of the
front and a upper level shortwave across the eastern Plains. These
showers and thunderstorms should continue to move east through the
morning hours before dissipating early this afternoon. However, the
slow moving cold front will move into eastern Kansas by late this
afternoon and daytime heating as well as  another upper level
shortwave moving into the region will spark another round of storms.
Storms are not expected to be strong as instability is weak, with
weak lapse rates. These storms should continue to progress slowly
east across the area tonight out ahead of the cold front. There
could even be a few left over showers across the eastern CWA
Saturday morning before the cold front clears the area. Models stall
the cold front south of the area on Saturday and precipitation
should remain south of the area. However, if the front stall a
little further north storms could again be possible across the
southern CWA during the day Saturday. Temperatures behind the front
on Saturday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Beyond Saturday, expect dry conditions with a warming trend through
the middle of next week. This will be thanks to a upper level ridge
which is currently over the western CONUS building eastward over the
Plains and Midwest on Sunday. Highs Sunday will be in the mid 80s.
Warm air advection on Monday and Tuesday will help temperatures
continue to rise with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s by
Tuesday. Models suggest the upper ridge begins to weaken by
Wednesday as a series of shortwaves flattens out the ridge over the
Plains and Midwest. The main storm track however, should remain well
north of the forecast area. However, cloud cover on Wednesday and
Thursday could drop temperatures a degree or two into the mid 80s to
near 90. The upper ridge does look to reassert itself by the end of
next week keeping conditions warm and dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Isolated light afternoon showers east of I-35. VFR conditions through
the afternoon hours. Otherwise, scattered convection expected to form
by late afternoon over northwest MO and northeast KS along or just
ahead of a cold front. Activity expected to advance southeast through
the early evening hours but weaken after sunset. Except for a brief
period of MVFR ceilings with the strongest storms over northwest MO
expect VFR ceilings. Timing remains too uncertain for a 2hr TEMPO
group for the Kansas City terminals.

Should see MVFR ceilings follow with the passage of the cold front.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...MJ



000
FXUS63 KEAX 281759
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1259 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Early this morning,  an area of showers and thunderstorms
extending from NW Missouri back west into central Kansas and SE
Nebraska where a cold front resides continues to push eastward.
These storms are being fueled by warm air advection ahead of the
front and a upper level shortwave across the eastern Plains. These
showers and thunderstorms should continue to move east through the
morning hours before dissipating early this afternoon. However, the
slow moving cold front will move into eastern Kansas by late this
afternoon and daytime heating as well as  another upper level
shortwave moving into the region will spark another round of storms.
Storms are not expected to be strong as instability is weak, with
weak lapse rates. These storms should continue to progress slowly
east across the area tonight out ahead of the cold front. There
could even be a few left over showers across the eastern CWA
Saturday morning before the cold front clears the area. Models stall
the cold front south of the area on Saturday and precipitation
should remain south of the area. However, if the front stall a
little further north storms could again be possible across the
southern CWA during the day Saturday. Temperatures behind the front
on Saturday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Beyond Saturday, expect dry conditions with a warming trend through
the middle of next week. This will be thanks to a upper level ridge
which is currently over the western CONUS building eastward over the
Plains and Midwest on Sunday. Highs Sunday will be in the mid 80s.
Warm air advection on Monday and Tuesday will help temperatures
continue to rise with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s by
Tuesday. Models suggest the upper ridge begins to weaken by
Wednesday as a series of shortwaves flattens out the ridge over the
Plains and Midwest. The main storm track however, should remain well
north of the forecast area. However, cloud cover on Wednesday and
Thursday could drop temperatures a degree or two into the mid 80s to
near 90. The upper ridge does look to reassert itself by the end of
next week keeping conditions warm and dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Isolated light afternoon showers east of I-35. VFR conditions through
the afternoon hours. Otherwise, scattered convection expected to form
by late afternoon over northwest MO and northeast KS along or just
ahead of a cold front. Activity expected to advance southeast through
the early evening hours but weaken after sunset. Except for a brief
period of MVFR ceilings with the strongest storms over northwest MO
expect VFR ceilings. Timing remains too uncertain for a 2hr TEMPO
group for the Kansas City terminals.

Should see MVFR ceilings follow with the passage of the cold front.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...MJ




000
FXUS63 KLSX 281739
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1239 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE AREA HAS REMAINED DRY EVEN THROUGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD MOST
OF THE REGION. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER
WESTERN MISSOURI MOVES EASTWARD. UNTIL THEN...STILL EXPECT HIGHS
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

BRITT

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN ACROSS FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT. DESPITE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY ON SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, THERE IS A
LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. FEEL THAT BEST CHANCES OF SOME SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI
AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

BYRD

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE THAT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT TO SLOWLY EXPAND OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA
TONIGHT...WITH THE STL METRO LIKELY ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
THREAT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.  DUE TO PROGGED LOW LEVEL
FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HAVE UPPED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY
OVER OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

HOWEVER...FROM SATURDAY MORNING ON FEATURES AND MODEL SPECIFICS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE AND BECOME INCREASING NEBULOUS.  WHILE MODELS DO
AGREE THAT NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY...THEY DISAGREE WITH THEIR
HANDLING OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS IT
STRETCHES SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY MERGING WITH ANOTHER WEAK
CIRCULATION ALONG THE GULF COAST (WHICH APPEARS TO ORIGINATE WITH
A BIT OF ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF FROM THE BASE OF THE CURRENT EAST
COAST TROF). GFS AND NAM SUGGEST SOME TYPE OF REMNANT CIRCULATION
TAKING UP RESIDENCE IN THE VICINITY OF SW MO BY SUNDAY WITH
RESIDUAL SURFACE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE AREA...WHILE
ECMWF WANTS TO PUSH THE INCREASINGLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH WITH TIME.

IF NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS DO COME TO FRUITION ON SUNDAY...AND IF NAM
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST (WHICH IS OFTEN TOO HIGH) ALSO
VERIFIES...THEN THE DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN JEOPARDY.
HOWEVER...WOULD LIKE TO SEE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THESE WEAK
FEATURES AND TRENDS BEFORE REINTRODUCING CONVECTION ON SUNDAY.  SO
FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND THE FORECAST TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION...NAMELY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPANDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM
NW TO SE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE THE DISCREPANCY IN THE UA PROGS ON SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT WESTERN RIDGE WILL BE EXPANDING EAST INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SHOULD
MEAN DRY WEATHER FOR THE FA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
TO LATE SUMMER LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S.

TRUETT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT
THAT WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA ON
SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AROUND THE ST. LOUIS METRO TAF SITES.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

BRITT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 281739
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1239 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE AREA HAS REMAINED DRY EVEN THROUGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD MOST
OF THE REGION. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER
WESTERN MISSOURI MOVES EASTWARD. UNTIL THEN...STILL EXPECT HIGHS
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

BRITT

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN ACROSS FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT. DESPITE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY ON SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, THERE IS A
LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. FEEL THAT BEST CHANCES OF SOME SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI
AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

BYRD

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE THAT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT TO SLOWLY EXPAND OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA
TONIGHT...WITH THE STL METRO LIKELY ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
THREAT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.  DUE TO PROGGED LOW LEVEL
FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HAVE UPPED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY
OVER OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

HOWEVER...FROM SATURDAY MORNING ON FEATURES AND MODEL SPECIFICS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE AND BECOME INCREASING NEBULOUS.  WHILE MODELS DO
AGREE THAT NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY...THEY DISAGREE WITH THEIR
HANDLING OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS IT
STRETCHES SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY MERGING WITH ANOTHER WEAK
CIRCULATION ALONG THE GULF COAST (WHICH APPEARS TO ORIGINATE WITH
A BIT OF ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF FROM THE BASE OF THE CURRENT EAST
COAST TROF). GFS AND NAM SUGGEST SOME TYPE OF REMNANT CIRCULATION
TAKING UP RESIDENCE IN THE VICINITY OF SW MO BY SUNDAY WITH
RESIDUAL SURFACE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE AREA...WHILE
ECMWF WANTS TO PUSH THE INCREASINGLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH WITH TIME.

IF NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS DO COME TO FRUITION ON SUNDAY...AND IF NAM
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST (WHICH IS OFTEN TOO HIGH) ALSO
VERIFIES...THEN THE DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN JEOPARDY.
HOWEVER...WOULD LIKE TO SEE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THESE WEAK
FEATURES AND TRENDS BEFORE REINTRODUCING CONVECTION ON SUNDAY.  SO
FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND THE FORECAST TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION...NAMELY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPANDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM
NW TO SE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE THE DISCREPANCY IN THE UA PROGS ON SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT WESTERN RIDGE WILL BE EXPANDING EAST INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SHOULD
MEAN DRY WEATHER FOR THE FA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
TO LATE SUMMER LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S.

TRUETT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT
THAT WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA ON
SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AROUND THE ST. LOUIS METRO TAF SITES.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

BRITT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 281739
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1239 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE AREA HAS REMAINED DRY EVEN THROUGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD MOST
OF THE REGION. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER
WESTERN MISSOURI MOVES EASTWARD. UNTIL THEN...STILL EXPECT HIGHS
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

BRITT

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN ACROSS FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT. DESPITE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY ON SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, THERE IS A
LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. FEEL THAT BEST CHANCES OF SOME SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI
AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

BYRD

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE THAT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT TO SLOWLY EXPAND OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA
TONIGHT...WITH THE STL METRO LIKELY ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
THREAT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.  DUE TO PROGGED LOW LEVEL
FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HAVE UPPED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY
OVER OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

HOWEVER...FROM SATURDAY MORNING ON FEATURES AND MODEL SPECIFICS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE AND BECOME INCREASING NEBULOUS.  WHILE MODELS DO
AGREE THAT NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY...THEY DISAGREE WITH THEIR
HANDLING OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS IT
STRETCHES SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY MERGING WITH ANOTHER WEAK
CIRCULATION ALONG THE GULF COAST (WHICH APPEARS TO ORIGINATE WITH
A BIT OF ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF FROM THE BASE OF THE CURRENT EAST
COAST TROF). GFS AND NAM SUGGEST SOME TYPE OF REMNANT CIRCULATION
TAKING UP RESIDENCE IN THE VICINITY OF SW MO BY SUNDAY WITH
RESIDUAL SURFACE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE AREA...WHILE
ECMWF WANTS TO PUSH THE INCREASINGLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH WITH TIME.

IF NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS DO COME TO FRUITION ON SUNDAY...AND IF NAM
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST (WHICH IS OFTEN TOO HIGH) ALSO
VERIFIES...THEN THE DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN JEOPARDY.
HOWEVER...WOULD LIKE TO SEE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THESE WEAK
FEATURES AND TRENDS BEFORE REINTRODUCING CONVECTION ON SUNDAY.  SO
FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND THE FORECAST TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION...NAMELY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPANDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM
NW TO SE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE THE DISCREPANCY IN THE UA PROGS ON SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT WESTERN RIDGE WILL BE EXPANDING EAST INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SHOULD
MEAN DRY WEATHER FOR THE FA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
TO LATE SUMMER LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S.

TRUETT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT
THAT WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA ON
SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AROUND THE ST. LOUIS METRO TAF SITES.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

BRITT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 281739
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1239 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE AREA HAS REMAINED DRY EVEN THROUGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD MOST
OF THE REGION. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER
WESTERN MISSOURI MOVES EASTWARD. UNTIL THEN...STILL EXPECT HIGHS
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

BRITT

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN ACROSS FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT. DESPITE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY ON SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, THERE IS A
LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. FEEL THAT BEST CHANCES OF SOME SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI
AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

BYRD

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE THAT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT TO SLOWLY EXPAND OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA
TONIGHT...WITH THE STL METRO LIKELY ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
THREAT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.  DUE TO PROGGED LOW LEVEL
FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HAVE UPPED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY
OVER OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

HOWEVER...FROM SATURDAY MORNING ON FEATURES AND MODEL SPECIFICS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE AND BECOME INCREASING NEBULOUS.  WHILE MODELS DO
AGREE THAT NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY...THEY DISAGREE WITH THEIR
HANDLING OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS IT
STRETCHES SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY MERGING WITH ANOTHER WEAK
CIRCULATION ALONG THE GULF COAST (WHICH APPEARS TO ORIGINATE WITH
A BIT OF ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF FROM THE BASE OF THE CURRENT EAST
COAST TROF). GFS AND NAM SUGGEST SOME TYPE OF REMNANT CIRCULATION
TAKING UP RESIDENCE IN THE VICINITY OF SW MO BY SUNDAY WITH
RESIDUAL SURFACE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE AREA...WHILE
ECMWF WANTS TO PUSH THE INCREASINGLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH WITH TIME.

IF NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS DO COME TO FRUITION ON SUNDAY...AND IF NAM
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST (WHICH IS OFTEN TOO HIGH) ALSO
VERIFIES...THEN THE DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN JEOPARDY.
HOWEVER...WOULD LIKE TO SEE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THESE WEAK
FEATURES AND TRENDS BEFORE REINTRODUCING CONVECTION ON SUNDAY.  SO
FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND THE FORECAST TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION...NAMELY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPANDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM
NW TO SE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE THE DISCREPANCY IN THE UA PROGS ON SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT WESTERN RIDGE WILL BE EXPANDING EAST INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SHOULD
MEAN DRY WEATHER FOR THE FA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
TO LATE SUMMER LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S.

TRUETT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT
THAT WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA ON
SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AROUND THE ST. LOUIS METRO TAF SITES.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

BRITT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KSGF 281715
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1215 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...18z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

It was a comfortable and quiet night over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures cooled into the 50s and 60s,
under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds.

Showers and thunderstorms were observed over central Kansas as an
upper level disturbance was passing over this area.

This feature will approach the Ozarks today, helping to trigger
some rain over southeast Kansas and western Missouri. We think
most locations across the Ozarks will remain dry, since this
activity will have a tendency to dissipate further east. Therefore
locations east of Highway 65 will have good chances for dry
weather through this afternoon.

Highs today are expected to warm into the low to mid 80s in all
locations.

As we progress into tonight, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to increase, as a secondary speed max approaches from
the northwest. The better chances for rain will once again occur
over southeast Kansas and western Missouri. Tonight`s lows will
fall into the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)

For Saturday, we are looking at the possibility of isolated
showers and thunderstorms, although most locations can plan for a
dry day.

We start to see an unusual pattern take shape as the primary belt
of westerlies moves well into southern Canada and the Hudson Bay.
Meanwhile, the upper trough currently over the southeast United
States will retro-grade west into the Ozarks, creating isolated to
scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms.

The axis of this trough will be positioned over the Ozarks both
Sunday and Monday. Therefore, will need to carry at least
scattered chances for rain both of these days.

By Tuesday, it`s a little more uncertain on where this weakness
will be positioned. Will carry lower precip chances for the
middle and end of next week.

One item we do know, temperatures and heat indices will be on the
rise next week. Readings well into the middle and upper 80s are
expected on an afternoon basis. We can also expect increased
humidity, causing heat indices to rise into the low to middle 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Mostly VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours for
pilots flying in and out of the Missouri Ozarks region. Mid and
high cloudiness will continue through tomorrow morning. A weak
front will try to develop a scattered thunderstorms between 06z to
14z tonight and tomorrow morning. Have mentioned PROB30 groups for
this potential at area TAF sites with a brief drop in visibilities
to MVFR under heavier showers. Otherwise southerly winds will be
a little breezy this afternoon up to 12kts and light breeze
continuing through tomorrow morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Griffin



000
FXUS63 KSGF 281715
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1215 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...18z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

It was a comfortable and quiet night over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures cooled into the 50s and 60s,
under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds.

Showers and thunderstorms were observed over central Kansas as an
upper level disturbance was passing over this area.

This feature will approach the Ozarks today, helping to trigger
some rain over southeast Kansas and western Missouri. We think
most locations across the Ozarks will remain dry, since this
activity will have a tendency to dissipate further east. Therefore
locations east of Highway 65 will have good chances for dry
weather through this afternoon.

Highs today are expected to warm into the low to mid 80s in all
locations.

As we progress into tonight, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to increase, as a secondary speed max approaches from
the northwest. The better chances for rain will once again occur
over southeast Kansas and western Missouri. Tonight`s lows will
fall into the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)

For Saturday, we are looking at the possibility of isolated
showers and thunderstorms, although most locations can plan for a
dry day.

We start to see an unusual pattern take shape as the primary belt
of westerlies moves well into southern Canada and the Hudson Bay.
Meanwhile, the upper trough currently over the southeast United
States will retro-grade west into the Ozarks, creating isolated to
scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms.

The axis of this trough will be positioned over the Ozarks both
Sunday and Monday. Therefore, will need to carry at least
scattered chances for rain both of these days.

By Tuesday, it`s a little more uncertain on where this weakness
will be positioned. Will carry lower precip chances for the
middle and end of next week.

One item we do know, temperatures and heat indices will be on the
rise next week. Readings well into the middle and upper 80s are
expected on an afternoon basis. We can also expect increased
humidity, causing heat indices to rise into the low to middle 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Mostly VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours for
pilots flying in and out of the Missouri Ozarks region. Mid and
high cloudiness will continue through tomorrow morning. A weak
front will try to develop a scattered thunderstorms between 06z to
14z tonight and tomorrow morning. Have mentioned PROB30 groups for
this potential at area TAF sites with a brief drop in visibilities
to MVFR under heavier showers. Otherwise southerly winds will be
a little breezy this afternoon up to 12kts and light breeze
continuing through tomorrow morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Griffin




000
FXUS63 KSGF 281715
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1215 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...18z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

It was a comfortable and quiet night over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures cooled into the 50s and 60s,
under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds.

Showers and thunderstorms were observed over central Kansas as an
upper level disturbance was passing over this area.

This feature will approach the Ozarks today, helping to trigger
some rain over southeast Kansas and western Missouri. We think
most locations across the Ozarks will remain dry, since this
activity will have a tendency to dissipate further east. Therefore
locations east of Highway 65 will have good chances for dry
weather through this afternoon.

Highs today are expected to warm into the low to mid 80s in all
locations.

As we progress into tonight, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to increase, as a secondary speed max approaches from
the northwest. The better chances for rain will once again occur
over southeast Kansas and western Missouri. Tonight`s lows will
fall into the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)

For Saturday, we are looking at the possibility of isolated
showers and thunderstorms, although most locations can plan for a
dry day.

We start to see an unusual pattern take shape as the primary belt
of westerlies moves well into southern Canada and the Hudson Bay.
Meanwhile, the upper trough currently over the southeast United
States will retro-grade west into the Ozarks, creating isolated to
scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms.

The axis of this trough will be positioned over the Ozarks both
Sunday and Monday. Therefore, will need to carry at least
scattered chances for rain both of these days.

By Tuesday, it`s a little more uncertain on where this weakness
will be positioned. Will carry lower precip chances for the
middle and end of next week.

One item we do know, temperatures and heat indices will be on the
rise next week. Readings well into the middle and upper 80s are
expected on an afternoon basis. We can also expect increased
humidity, causing heat indices to rise into the low to middle 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Mostly VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours for
pilots flying in and out of the Missouri Ozarks region. Mid and
high cloudiness will continue through tomorrow morning. A weak
front will try to develop a scattered thunderstorms between 06z to
14z tonight and tomorrow morning. Have mentioned PROB30 groups for
this potential at area TAF sites with a brief drop in visibilities
to MVFR under heavier showers. Otherwise southerly winds will be
a little breezy this afternoon up to 12kts and light breeze
continuing through tomorrow morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Griffin



000
FXUS63 KSGF 281715
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1215 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...18z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

It was a comfortable and quiet night over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures cooled into the 50s and 60s,
under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds.

Showers and thunderstorms were observed over central Kansas as an
upper level disturbance was passing over this area.

This feature will approach the Ozarks today, helping to trigger
some rain over southeast Kansas and western Missouri. We think
most locations across the Ozarks will remain dry, since this
activity will have a tendency to dissipate further east. Therefore
locations east of Highway 65 will have good chances for dry
weather through this afternoon.

Highs today are expected to warm into the low to mid 80s in all
locations.

As we progress into tonight, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to increase, as a secondary speed max approaches from
the northwest. The better chances for rain will once again occur
over southeast Kansas and western Missouri. Tonight`s lows will
fall into the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)

For Saturday, we are looking at the possibility of isolated
showers and thunderstorms, although most locations can plan for a
dry day.

We start to see an unusual pattern take shape as the primary belt
of westerlies moves well into southern Canada and the Hudson Bay.
Meanwhile, the upper trough currently over the southeast United
States will retro-grade west into the Ozarks, creating isolated to
scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms.

The axis of this trough will be positioned over the Ozarks both
Sunday and Monday. Therefore, will need to carry at least
scattered chances for rain both of these days.

By Tuesday, it`s a little more uncertain on where this weakness
will be positioned. Will carry lower precip chances for the
middle and end of next week.

One item we do know, temperatures and heat indices will be on the
rise next week. Readings well into the middle and upper 80s are
expected on an afternoon basis. We can also expect increased
humidity, causing heat indices to rise into the low to middle 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Mostly VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours for
pilots flying in and out of the Missouri Ozarks region. Mid and
high cloudiness will continue through tomorrow morning. A weak
front will try to develop a scattered thunderstorms between 06z to
14z tonight and tomorrow morning. Have mentioned PROB30 groups for
this potential at area TAF sites with a brief drop in visibilities
to MVFR under heavier showers. Otherwise southerly winds will be
a little breezy this afternoon up to 12kts and light breeze
continuing through tomorrow morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Griffin




000
FXUS63 KSGF 281152
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
652 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

It was a comfortable and quiet night over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures cooled into the 50s and 60s,
under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds.

Showers and thunderstorms were observed over central Kansas as an
upper level disturbance was passing over this area.

This feature will approach the Ozarks today, helping to trigger
some rain over southeast Kansas and western Missouri. We think
most locations across the Ozarks will remain dry, since this
activity will have a tendency to dissipate further east. Therefore
locations east of Highway 65 will have good chances for dry
weather through this afternoon.

Highs today are expected to warm into the low to mid 80s in all
locations.

As we progress into tonight, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to increase, as a secondary speed max approaches from
the northwest. The better chances for rain will once again occur
over southeast Kansas and western Missouri. Tonight`s lows will
fall into the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)

For Saturday, we are looking at the possibility of isolated
showers and thunderstorms, although most locations can plan for a
dry day.

We start to see an unusual pattern take shape as the primary belt
of westerlies moves well into southern Canada and the Hudson Bay.
Meanwhile, the upper trough currently over the southeast United
States will retro-grade west into the Ozarks, creating isolated to
scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms.

The axis of this trough will be positioned over the Ozarks both
Sunday and Monday. Therefore, will need to carry at least
scattered chances for rain both of these days.

By Tuesday, it`s a little more uncertain on where this weakness
will be positioned. Will carry lower precip chances for the
middle and end of next week.

One item we do know, temperatures and heat indices will be on the
rise next week. Readings well into the middle and upper 80s are
expected on an afternoon basis. We can also expect increased
humidity, causing heat indices to rise into the low to middle 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 0640 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected in the
near term, but showers and thunderstorms will shift begin to shift
east into the area late in the taf period from the west ahead of
a sfc front. VFR conditions will occur before the onset of
showers. Some mvfr/localized ifr conditions will occur with
showers late in the taf period with the overall best chances at
KJLN.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA



000
FXUS63 KSGF 281152
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
652 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

It was a comfortable and quiet night over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures cooled into the 50s and 60s,
under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds.

Showers and thunderstorms were observed over central Kansas as an
upper level disturbance was passing over this area.

This feature will approach the Ozarks today, helping to trigger
some rain over southeast Kansas and western Missouri. We think
most locations across the Ozarks will remain dry, since this
activity will have a tendency to dissipate further east. Therefore
locations east of Highway 65 will have good chances for dry
weather through this afternoon.

Highs today are expected to warm into the low to mid 80s in all
locations.

As we progress into tonight, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to increase, as a secondary speed max approaches from
the northwest. The better chances for rain will once again occur
over southeast Kansas and western Missouri. Tonight`s lows will
fall into the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)

For Saturday, we are looking at the possibility of isolated
showers and thunderstorms, although most locations can plan for a
dry day.

We start to see an unusual pattern take shape as the primary belt
of westerlies moves well into southern Canada and the Hudson Bay.
Meanwhile, the upper trough currently over the southeast United
States will retro-grade west into the Ozarks, creating isolated to
scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms.

The axis of this trough will be positioned over the Ozarks both
Sunday and Monday. Therefore, will need to carry at least
scattered chances for rain both of these days.

By Tuesday, it`s a little more uncertain on where this weakness
will be positioned. Will carry lower precip chances for the
middle and end of next week.

One item we do know, temperatures and heat indices will be on the
rise next week. Readings well into the middle and upper 80s are
expected on an afternoon basis. We can also expect increased
humidity, causing heat indices to rise into the low to middle 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 0640 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected in the
near term, but showers and thunderstorms will shift begin to shift
east into the area late in the taf period from the west ahead of
a sfc front. VFR conditions will occur before the onset of
showers. Some mvfr/localized ifr conditions will occur with
showers late in the taf period with the overall best chances at
KJLN.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA




000
FXUS63 KSGF 281152
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
652 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

It was a comfortable and quiet night over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures cooled into the 50s and 60s,
under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds.

Showers and thunderstorms were observed over central Kansas as an
upper level disturbance was passing over this area.

This feature will approach the Ozarks today, helping to trigger
some rain over southeast Kansas and western Missouri. We think
most locations across the Ozarks will remain dry, since this
activity will have a tendency to dissipate further east. Therefore
locations east of Highway 65 will have good chances for dry
weather through this afternoon.

Highs today are expected to warm into the low to mid 80s in all
locations.

As we progress into tonight, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to increase, as a secondary speed max approaches from
the northwest. The better chances for rain will once again occur
over southeast Kansas and western Missouri. Tonight`s lows will
fall into the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)

For Saturday, we are looking at the possibility of isolated
showers and thunderstorms, although most locations can plan for a
dry day.

We start to see an unusual pattern take shape as the primary belt
of westerlies moves well into southern Canada and the Hudson Bay.
Meanwhile, the upper trough currently over the southeast United
States will retro-grade west into the Ozarks, creating isolated to
scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms.

The axis of this trough will be positioned over the Ozarks both
Sunday and Monday. Therefore, will need to carry at least
scattered chances for rain both of these days.

By Tuesday, it`s a little more uncertain on where this weakness
will be positioned. Will carry lower precip chances for the
middle and end of next week.

One item we do know, temperatures and heat indices will be on the
rise next week. Readings well into the middle and upper 80s are
expected on an afternoon basis. We can also expect increased
humidity, causing heat indices to rise into the low to middle 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 0640 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected in the
near term, but showers and thunderstorms will shift begin to shift
east into the area late in the taf period from the west ahead of
a sfc front. VFR conditions will occur before the onset of
showers. Some mvfr/localized ifr conditions will occur with
showers late in the taf period with the overall best chances at
KJLN.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA



000
FXUS63 KSGF 281152
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
652 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

It was a comfortable and quiet night over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures cooled into the 50s and 60s,
under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds.

Showers and thunderstorms were observed over central Kansas as an
upper level disturbance was passing over this area.

This feature will approach the Ozarks today, helping to trigger
some rain over southeast Kansas and western Missouri. We think
most locations across the Ozarks will remain dry, since this
activity will have a tendency to dissipate further east. Therefore
locations east of Highway 65 will have good chances for dry
weather through this afternoon.

Highs today are expected to warm into the low to mid 80s in all
locations.

As we progress into tonight, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to increase, as a secondary speed max approaches from
the northwest. The better chances for rain will once again occur
over southeast Kansas and western Missouri. Tonight`s lows will
fall into the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)

For Saturday, we are looking at the possibility of isolated
showers and thunderstorms, although most locations can plan for a
dry day.

We start to see an unusual pattern take shape as the primary belt
of westerlies moves well into southern Canada and the Hudson Bay.
Meanwhile, the upper trough currently over the southeast United
States will retro-grade west into the Ozarks, creating isolated to
scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms.

The axis of this trough will be positioned over the Ozarks both
Sunday and Monday. Therefore, will need to carry at least
scattered chances for rain both of these days.

By Tuesday, it`s a little more uncertain on where this weakness
will be positioned. Will carry lower precip chances for the
middle and end of next week.

One item we do know, temperatures and heat indices will be on the
rise next week. Readings well into the middle and upper 80s are
expected on an afternoon basis. We can also expect increased
humidity, causing heat indices to rise into the low to middle 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 0640 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected in the
near term, but showers and thunderstorms will shift begin to shift
east into the area late in the taf period from the west ahead of
a sfc front. VFR conditions will occur before the onset of
showers. Some mvfr/localized ifr conditions will occur with
showers late in the taf period with the overall best chances at
KJLN.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA



000
FXUS63 KSGF 281152
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
652 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

It was a comfortable and quiet night over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures cooled into the 50s and 60s,
under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds.

Showers and thunderstorms were observed over central Kansas as an
upper level disturbance was passing over this area.

This feature will approach the Ozarks today, helping to trigger
some rain over southeast Kansas and western Missouri. We think
most locations across the Ozarks will remain dry, since this
activity will have a tendency to dissipate further east. Therefore
locations east of Highway 65 will have good chances for dry
weather through this afternoon.

Highs today are expected to warm into the low to mid 80s in all
locations.

As we progress into tonight, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to increase, as a secondary speed max approaches from
the northwest. The better chances for rain will once again occur
over southeast Kansas and western Missouri. Tonight`s lows will
fall into the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)

For Saturday, we are looking at the possibility of isolated
showers and thunderstorms, although most locations can plan for a
dry day.

We start to see an unusual pattern take shape as the primary belt
of westerlies moves well into southern Canada and the Hudson Bay.
Meanwhile, the upper trough currently over the southeast United
States will retro-grade west into the Ozarks, creating isolated to
scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms.

The axis of this trough will be positioned over the Ozarks both
Sunday and Monday. Therefore, will need to carry at least
scattered chances for rain both of these days.

By Tuesday, it`s a little more uncertain on where this weakness
will be positioned. Will carry lower precip chances for the
middle and end of next week.

One item we do know, temperatures and heat indices will be on the
rise next week. Readings well into the middle and upper 80s are
expected on an afternoon basis. We can also expect increased
humidity, causing heat indices to rise into the low to middle 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 0640 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected in the
near term, but showers and thunderstorms will shift begin to shift
east into the area late in the taf period from the west ahead of
a sfc front. VFR conditions will occur before the onset of
showers. Some mvfr/localized ifr conditions will occur with
showers late in the taf period with the overall best chances at
KJLN.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA



000
FXUS63 KSGF 281152
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
652 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

It was a comfortable and quiet night over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures cooled into the 50s and 60s,
under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds.

Showers and thunderstorms were observed over central Kansas as an
upper level disturbance was passing over this area.

This feature will approach the Ozarks today, helping to trigger
some rain over southeast Kansas and western Missouri. We think
most locations across the Ozarks will remain dry, since this
activity will have a tendency to dissipate further east. Therefore
locations east of Highway 65 will have good chances for dry
weather through this afternoon.

Highs today are expected to warm into the low to mid 80s in all
locations.

As we progress into tonight, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to increase, as a secondary speed max approaches from
the northwest. The better chances for rain will once again occur
over southeast Kansas and western Missouri. Tonight`s lows will
fall into the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)

For Saturday, we are looking at the possibility of isolated
showers and thunderstorms, although most locations can plan for a
dry day.

We start to see an unusual pattern take shape as the primary belt
of westerlies moves well into southern Canada and the Hudson Bay.
Meanwhile, the upper trough currently over the southeast United
States will retro-grade west into the Ozarks, creating isolated to
scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms.

The axis of this trough will be positioned over the Ozarks both
Sunday and Monday. Therefore, will need to carry at least
scattered chances for rain both of these days.

By Tuesday, it`s a little more uncertain on where this weakness
will be positioned. Will carry lower precip chances for the
middle and end of next week.

One item we do know, temperatures and heat indices will be on the
rise next week. Readings well into the middle and upper 80s are
expected on an afternoon basis. We can also expect increased
humidity, causing heat indices to rise into the low to middle 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 0640 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected in the
near term, but showers and thunderstorms will shift begin to shift
east into the area late in the taf period from the west ahead of
a sfc front. VFR conditions will occur before the onset of
showers. Some mvfr/localized ifr conditions will occur with
showers late in the taf period with the overall best chances at
KJLN.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA



000
FXUS63 KLSX 281129
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
629 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN ACROSS FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT. DESPITE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY ON SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, THERE IS A
LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. FEEL THAT BEST CHANCES OF SOME SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI
AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

BYRD

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE THAT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT TO SLOWLY EXPAND OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA
TONIGHT...WITH THE STL METRO LIKELY ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
THREAT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.  DUE TO PROGGED LOW LEVEL
FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HAVE UPPED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY
OVER OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

HOWEVER...FROM SATURDAY MORNING ON FEATURES AND MODEL SPECIFICS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE AND BECOME INCREASING NEBULOUS.  WHILE MODELS DO
AGREE THAT NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY...THEY DISAGREE WITH THEIR
HANDLING OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS IT
STRETCHES SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY MERGING WITH ANOTHER WEAK
CIRCULATION ALONG THE GULF COAST (WHICH APPEARS TO ORIGINATE WITH
A BIT OF ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF FROM THE BASE OF THE CURRENT EAST
COAST TROF). GFS AND NAM SUGGEST SOME TYPE OF REMNANT CIRCULATION
TAKING UP RESIDENCE IN THE VICINITY OF SW MO BY SUNDAY WITH
RESIDUAL SURFACE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE AREA...WHILE
ECMWF WANTS TO PUSH THE INCREASINGLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH WITH TIME.

IF NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS DO COME TO FRUITION ON SUNDAY...AND IF NAM
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST (WHICH IS OFTEN TOO HIGH) ALSO
VERIFIES...THEN THE DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN JEOPARDY.
HOWEVER...WOULD LIKE TO SEE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THESE WEAK
FEATURES AND TRENDS BEFORE REINTRODUCING CONVECTION ON SUNDAY.  SO
FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND THE FORECAST TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION...NAMELY THUNDESTORM CHANCES EXPANDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM NW TO
SE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE THE DISCREPANCY IN THE UA PROGS ON SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT WESTERN RIDGE WILLL BE EXPANDING EAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.  THIS SHOULD MEAN DRY
WEATHER FOR THE FA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO LATE
SUMMER LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S.

TRUETT
&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE
MEANTIME, NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH REGION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND HARD TO PIN DOWN IF
THEY WILL AFFECT TAF SITES, SO KEPT TAFS DRY FOR NOW. DID ADD
VICINITY TS MENTION FOR KUIN AND KCOU AFTER 06Z-07Z SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TO PICKUP TO BETWEEN 10
AND 15 KTS BY MID MORNING, BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE
MEANTIME, NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH REGION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND HARD TO PIN DOWN IF
THEY WILL AFFECT METRO, SO KEPT TAF DRY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PICKUP FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS BY
16Z FRIDAY, BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

BYRD
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 281129
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
629 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN ACROSS FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT. DESPITE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY ON SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, THERE IS A
LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. FEEL THAT BEST CHANCES OF SOME SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI
AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

BYRD

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE THAT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT TO SLOWLY EXPAND OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA
TONIGHT...WITH THE STL METRO LIKELY ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
THREAT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.  DUE TO PROGGED LOW LEVEL
FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HAVE UPPED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY
OVER OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

HOWEVER...FROM SATURDAY MORNING ON FEATURES AND MODEL SPECIFICS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE AND BECOME INCREASING NEBULOUS.  WHILE MODELS DO
AGREE THAT NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY...THEY DISAGREE WITH THEIR
HANDLING OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS IT
STRETCHES SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY MERGING WITH ANOTHER WEAK
CIRCULATION ALONG THE GULF COAST (WHICH APPEARS TO ORIGINATE WITH
A BIT OF ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF FROM THE BASE OF THE CURRENT EAST
COAST TROF). GFS AND NAM SUGGEST SOME TYPE OF REMNANT CIRCULATION
TAKING UP RESIDENCE IN THE VICINITY OF SW MO BY SUNDAY WITH
RESIDUAL SURFACE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE AREA...WHILE
ECMWF WANTS TO PUSH THE INCREASINGLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH WITH TIME.

IF NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS DO COME TO FRUITION ON SUNDAY...AND IF NAM
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST (WHICH IS OFTEN TOO HIGH) ALSO
VERIFIES...THEN THE DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN JEOPARDY.
HOWEVER...WOULD LIKE TO SEE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THESE WEAK
FEATURES AND TRENDS BEFORE REINTRODUCING CONVECTION ON SUNDAY.  SO
FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND THE FORECAST TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION...NAMELY THUNDESTORM CHANCES EXPANDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM NW TO
SE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE THE DISCREPANCY IN THE UA PROGS ON SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT WESTERN RIDGE WILLL BE EXPANDING EAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.  THIS SHOULD MEAN DRY
WEATHER FOR THE FA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO LATE
SUMMER LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S.

TRUETT
&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE
MEANTIME, NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH REGION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND HARD TO PIN DOWN IF
THEY WILL AFFECT TAF SITES, SO KEPT TAFS DRY FOR NOW. DID ADD
VICINITY TS MENTION FOR KUIN AND KCOU AFTER 06Z-07Z SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TO PICKUP TO BETWEEN 10
AND 15 KTS BY MID MORNING, BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE
MEANTIME, NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH REGION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND HARD TO PIN DOWN IF
THEY WILL AFFECT METRO, SO KEPT TAF DRY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PICKUP FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS BY
16Z FRIDAY, BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

BYRD
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 281129
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
629 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN ACROSS FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT. DESPITE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY ON SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, THERE IS A
LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. FEEL THAT BEST CHANCES OF SOME SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI
AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

BYRD

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE THAT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT TO SLOWLY EXPAND OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA
TONIGHT...WITH THE STL METRO LIKELY ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
THREAT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.  DUE TO PROGGED LOW LEVEL
FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HAVE UPPED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY
OVER OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

HOWEVER...FROM SATURDAY MORNING ON FEATURES AND MODEL SPECIFICS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE AND BECOME INCREASING NEBULOUS.  WHILE MODELS DO
AGREE THAT NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY...THEY DISAGREE WITH THEIR
HANDLING OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS IT
STRETCHES SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY MERGING WITH ANOTHER WEAK
CIRCULATION ALONG THE GULF COAST (WHICH APPEARS TO ORIGINATE WITH
A BIT OF ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF FROM THE BASE OF THE CURRENT EAST
COAST TROF). GFS AND NAM SUGGEST SOME TYPE OF REMNANT CIRCULATION
TAKING UP RESIDENCE IN THE VICINITY OF SW MO BY SUNDAY WITH
RESIDUAL SURFACE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE AREA...WHILE
ECMWF WANTS TO PUSH THE INCREASINGLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH WITH TIME.

IF NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS DO COME TO FRUITION ON SUNDAY...AND IF NAM
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST (WHICH IS OFTEN TOO HIGH) ALSO
VERIFIES...THEN THE DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN JEOPARDY.
HOWEVER...WOULD LIKE TO SEE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THESE WEAK
FEATURES AND TRENDS BEFORE REINTRODUCING CONVECTION ON SUNDAY.  SO
FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND THE FORECAST TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION...NAMELY THUNDESTORM CHANCES EXPANDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM NW TO
SE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE THE DISCREPANCY IN THE UA PROGS ON SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT WESTERN RIDGE WILLL BE EXPANDING EAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.  THIS SHOULD MEAN DRY
WEATHER FOR THE FA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO LATE
SUMMER LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S.

TRUETT
&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE
MEANTIME, NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH REGION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND HARD TO PIN DOWN IF
THEY WILL AFFECT TAF SITES, SO KEPT TAFS DRY FOR NOW. DID ADD
VICINITY TS MENTION FOR KUIN AND KCOU AFTER 06Z-07Z SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TO PICKUP TO BETWEEN 10
AND 15 KTS BY MID MORNING, BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE
MEANTIME, NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH REGION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND HARD TO PIN DOWN IF
THEY WILL AFFECT METRO, SO KEPT TAF DRY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PICKUP FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS BY
16Z FRIDAY, BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

BYRD
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KEAX 281118
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
618 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Early this morning,  an area of showers and thunderstorms
extending from NW Missouri back west into central Kansas and SE
Nebraska where a cold front resides continues to push eastward.
These storms are being fueled by warm air advection ahead of the
front and a upper level shortwave across the eastern Plains. These
showers and thunderstorms should continue to move east through the
morning hours before dissipating early this afternoon. However, the
slow moving cold front will move into eastern Kansas by late this
afternoon and daytime heating as well as  another upper level
shortwave moving into the region will spark another round of storms.
Storms are not expected to be strong as instability is weak, with
weak lapse rates. These storms should continue to progress slowly
east across the area tonight out ahead of the cold front. There
could even be a few left over showers across the eastern CWA
Saturday morning before the cold front clears the area. Models stall
the cold front south of the area on Saturday and precipitation
should remain south of the area. However, if the front stall a
little further north storms could again be possible across the
southern CWA during the day Saturday. Temperatures behind the front
on Saturday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Beyond Saturday, expect dry conditions with a warming trend through
the middle of next week. This will be thanks to a upper level ridge
which is currently over the western CONUS building eastward over the
Plains and Midwest on Sunday. Highs Sunday will be in the mid 80s.
Warm air advection on Monday and Tuesday will help temperatures
continue to rise with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s by
Tuesday. Models suggest the upper ridge begins to weaken by
Wednesday as a series of shortwaves flattens out the ridge over the
Plains and Midwest. The main storm track however, should remain well
north of the forecast area. However, cloud cover on Wednesday and
Thursday could drop temperatures a degree or two into the mid 80s to
near 90. The upper ridge does look to reassert itself by the end of
next week keeping conditions warm and dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Lgt shra are movg thru NW MO and ERN KS this morning and are expected
to affect the terminals btn 12Z-14Z however, no vis/cig restrictions
will accompany this showers. Today expect mainly bkn-ovc mid lvl
clouds. Tonight, a cold front will approach the terminals. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop out ahead of the front.
These storms will be scattered in nature so confidence is low in
timing storms into the terminals but have VC in the TAF sites btn
22Z-04Z. The cold front will push thru the TAF sites late in the pd.
South winds around 10kts this morning will increase by late morning
to around 15kts with gusts to 25kts. Winds will subside this evening
as the cold front approaches.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73




000
FXUS63 KEAX 281118
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
618 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Early this morning,  an area of showers and thunderstorms
extending from NW Missouri back west into central Kansas and SE
Nebraska where a cold front resides continues to push eastward.
These storms are being fueled by warm air advection ahead of the
front and a upper level shortwave across the eastern Plains. These
showers and thunderstorms should continue to move east through the
morning hours before dissipating early this afternoon. However, the
slow moving cold front will move into eastern Kansas by late this
afternoon and daytime heating as well as  another upper level
shortwave moving into the region will spark another round of storms.
Storms are not expected to be strong as instability is weak, with
weak lapse rates. These storms should continue to progress slowly
east across the area tonight out ahead of the cold front. There
could even be a few left over showers across the eastern CWA
Saturday morning before the cold front clears the area. Models stall
the cold front south of the area on Saturday and precipitation
should remain south of the area. However, if the front stall a
little further north storms could again be possible across the
southern CWA during the day Saturday. Temperatures behind the front
on Saturday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Beyond Saturday, expect dry conditions with a warming trend through
the middle of next week. This will be thanks to a upper level ridge
which is currently over the western CONUS building eastward over the
Plains and Midwest on Sunday. Highs Sunday will be in the mid 80s.
Warm air advection on Monday and Tuesday will help temperatures
continue to rise with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s by
Tuesday. Models suggest the upper ridge begins to weaken by
Wednesday as a series of shortwaves flattens out the ridge over the
Plains and Midwest. The main storm track however, should remain well
north of the forecast area. However, cloud cover on Wednesday and
Thursday could drop temperatures a degree or two into the mid 80s to
near 90. The upper ridge does look to reassert itself by the end of
next week keeping conditions warm and dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Lgt shra are movg thru NW MO and ERN KS this morning and are expected
to affect the terminals btn 12Z-14Z however, no vis/cig restrictions
will accompany this showers. Today expect mainly bkn-ovc mid lvl
clouds. Tonight, a cold front will approach the terminals. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop out ahead of the front.
These storms will be scattered in nature so confidence is low in
timing storms into the terminals but have VC in the TAF sites btn
22Z-04Z. The cold front will push thru the TAF sites late in the pd.
South winds around 10kts this morning will increase by late morning
to around 15kts with gusts to 25kts. Winds will subside this evening
as the cold front approaches.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73




000
FXUS63 KEAX 281118
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
618 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Early this morning,  an area of showers and thunderstorms
extending from NW Missouri back west into central Kansas and SE
Nebraska where a cold front resides continues to push eastward.
These storms are being fueled by warm air advection ahead of the
front and a upper level shortwave across the eastern Plains. These
showers and thunderstorms should continue to move east through the
morning hours before dissipating early this afternoon. However, the
slow moving cold front will move into eastern Kansas by late this
afternoon and daytime heating as well as  another upper level
shortwave moving into the region will spark another round of storms.
Storms are not expected to be strong as instability is weak, with
weak lapse rates. These storms should continue to progress slowly
east across the area tonight out ahead of the cold front. There
could even be a few left over showers across the eastern CWA
Saturday morning before the cold front clears the area. Models stall
the cold front south of the area on Saturday and precipitation
should remain south of the area. However, if the front stall a
little further north storms could again be possible across the
southern CWA during the day Saturday. Temperatures behind the front
on Saturday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Beyond Saturday, expect dry conditions with a warming trend through
the middle of next week. This will be thanks to a upper level ridge
which is currently over the western CONUS building eastward over the
Plains and Midwest on Sunday. Highs Sunday will be in the mid 80s.
Warm air advection on Monday and Tuesday will help temperatures
continue to rise with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s by
Tuesday. Models suggest the upper ridge begins to weaken by
Wednesday as a series of shortwaves flattens out the ridge over the
Plains and Midwest. The main storm track however, should remain well
north of the forecast area. However, cloud cover on Wednesday and
Thursday could drop temperatures a degree or two into the mid 80s to
near 90. The upper ridge does look to reassert itself by the end of
next week keeping conditions warm and dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Lgt shra are movg thru NW MO and ERN KS this morning and are expected
to affect the terminals btn 12Z-14Z however, no vis/cig restrictions
will accompany this showers. Today expect mainly bkn-ovc mid lvl
clouds. Tonight, a cold front will approach the terminals. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop out ahead of the front.
These storms will be scattered in nature so confidence is low in
timing storms into the terminals but have VC in the TAF sites btn
22Z-04Z. The cold front will push thru the TAF sites late in the pd.
South winds around 10kts this morning will increase by late morning
to around 15kts with gusts to 25kts. Winds will subside this evening
as the cold front approaches.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73




000
FXUS63 KEAX 281118
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
618 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Early this morning,  an area of showers and thunderstorms
extending from NW Missouri back west into central Kansas and SE
Nebraska where a cold front resides continues to push eastward.
These storms are being fueled by warm air advection ahead of the
front and a upper level shortwave across the eastern Plains. These
showers and thunderstorms should continue to move east through the
morning hours before dissipating early this afternoon. However, the
slow moving cold front will move into eastern Kansas by late this
afternoon and daytime heating as well as  another upper level
shortwave moving into the region will spark another round of storms.
Storms are not expected to be strong as instability is weak, with
weak lapse rates. These storms should continue to progress slowly
east across the area tonight out ahead of the cold front. There
could even be a few left over showers across the eastern CWA
Saturday morning before the cold front clears the area. Models stall
the cold front south of the area on Saturday and precipitation
should remain south of the area. However, if the front stall a
little further north storms could again be possible across the
southern CWA during the day Saturday. Temperatures behind the front
on Saturday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Beyond Saturday, expect dry conditions with a warming trend through
the middle of next week. This will be thanks to a upper level ridge
which is currently over the western CONUS building eastward over the
Plains and Midwest on Sunday. Highs Sunday will be in the mid 80s.
Warm air advection on Monday and Tuesday will help temperatures
continue to rise with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s by
Tuesday. Models suggest the upper ridge begins to weaken by
Wednesday as a series of shortwaves flattens out the ridge over the
Plains and Midwest. The main storm track however, should remain well
north of the forecast area. However, cloud cover on Wednesday and
Thursday could drop temperatures a degree or two into the mid 80s to
near 90. The upper ridge does look to reassert itself by the end of
next week keeping conditions warm and dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Lgt shra are movg thru NW MO and ERN KS this morning and are expected
to affect the terminals btn 12Z-14Z however, no vis/cig restrictions
will accompany this showers. Today expect mainly bkn-ovc mid lvl
clouds. Tonight, a cold front will approach the terminals. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop out ahead of the front.
These storms will be scattered in nature so confidence is low in
timing storms into the terminals but have VC in the TAF sites btn
22Z-04Z. The cold front will push thru the TAF sites late in the pd.
South winds around 10kts this morning will increase by late morning
to around 15kts with gusts to 25kts. Winds will subside this evening
as the cold front approaches.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73




000
FXUS63 KEAX 281118
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
618 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Early this morning,  an area of showers and thunderstorms
extending from NW Missouri back west into central Kansas and SE
Nebraska where a cold front resides continues to push eastward.
These storms are being fueled by warm air advection ahead of the
front and a upper level shortwave across the eastern Plains. These
showers and thunderstorms should continue to move east through the
morning hours before dissipating early this afternoon. However, the
slow moving cold front will move into eastern Kansas by late this
afternoon and daytime heating as well as  another upper level
shortwave moving into the region will spark another round of storms.
Storms are not expected to be strong as instability is weak, with
weak lapse rates. These storms should continue to progress slowly
east across the area tonight out ahead of the cold front. There
could even be a few left over showers across the eastern CWA
Saturday morning before the cold front clears the area. Models stall
the cold front south of the area on Saturday and precipitation
should remain south of the area. However, if the front stall a
little further north storms could again be possible across the
southern CWA during the day Saturday. Temperatures behind the front
on Saturday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Beyond Saturday, expect dry conditions with a warming trend through
the middle of next week. This will be thanks to a upper level ridge
which is currently over the western CONUS building eastward over the
Plains and Midwest on Sunday. Highs Sunday will be in the mid 80s.
Warm air advection on Monday and Tuesday will help temperatures
continue to rise with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s by
Tuesday. Models suggest the upper ridge begins to weaken by
Wednesday as a series of shortwaves flattens out the ridge over the
Plains and Midwest. The main storm track however, should remain well
north of the forecast area. However, cloud cover on Wednesday and
Thursday could drop temperatures a degree or two into the mid 80s to
near 90. The upper ridge does look to reassert itself by the end of
next week keeping conditions warm and dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Lgt shra are movg thru NW MO and ERN KS this morning and are expected
to affect the terminals btn 12Z-14Z however, no vis/cig restrictions
will accompany this showers. Today expect mainly bkn-ovc mid lvl
clouds. Tonight, a cold front will approach the terminals. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop out ahead of the front.
These storms will be scattered in nature so confidence is low in
timing storms into the terminals but have VC in the TAF sites btn
22Z-04Z. The cold front will push thru the TAF sites late in the pd.
South winds around 10kts this morning will increase by late morning
to around 15kts with gusts to 25kts. Winds will subside this evening
as the cold front approaches.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73




000
FXUS63 KEAX 281118
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
618 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Early this morning,  an area of showers and thunderstorms
extending from NW Missouri back west into central Kansas and SE
Nebraska where a cold front resides continues to push eastward.
These storms are being fueled by warm air advection ahead of the
front and a upper level shortwave across the eastern Plains. These
showers and thunderstorms should continue to move east through the
morning hours before dissipating early this afternoon. However, the
slow moving cold front will move into eastern Kansas by late this
afternoon and daytime heating as well as  another upper level
shortwave moving into the region will spark another round of storms.
Storms are not expected to be strong as instability is weak, with
weak lapse rates. These storms should continue to progress slowly
east across the area tonight out ahead of the cold front. There
could even be a few left over showers across the eastern CWA
Saturday morning before the cold front clears the area. Models stall
the cold front south of the area on Saturday and precipitation
should remain south of the area. However, if the front stall a
little further north storms could again be possible across the
southern CWA during the day Saturday. Temperatures behind the front
on Saturday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Beyond Saturday, expect dry conditions with a warming trend through
the middle of next week. This will be thanks to a upper level ridge
which is currently over the western CONUS building eastward over the
Plains and Midwest on Sunday. Highs Sunday will be in the mid 80s.
Warm air advection on Monday and Tuesday will help temperatures
continue to rise with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s by
Tuesday. Models suggest the upper ridge begins to weaken by
Wednesday as a series of shortwaves flattens out the ridge over the
Plains and Midwest. The main storm track however, should remain well
north of the forecast area. However, cloud cover on Wednesday and
Thursday could drop temperatures a degree or two into the mid 80s to
near 90. The upper ridge does look to reassert itself by the end of
next week keeping conditions warm and dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Lgt shra are movg thru NW MO and ERN KS this morning and are expected
to affect the terminals btn 12Z-14Z however, no vis/cig restrictions
will accompany this showers. Today expect mainly bkn-ovc mid lvl
clouds. Tonight, a cold front will approach the terminals. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop out ahead of the front.
These storms will be scattered in nature so confidence is low in
timing storms into the terminals but have VC in the TAF sites btn
22Z-04Z. The cold front will push thru the TAF sites late in the pd.
South winds around 10kts this morning will increase by late morning
to around 15kts with gusts to 25kts. Winds will subside this evening
as the cold front approaches.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73



000
FXUS63 KLSX 280844
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
344 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN ACROSS FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT. DESPITE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY ON SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, THERE IS A
LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. FEEL THAT BEST CHANCES OF SOME SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI
AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

BYRD

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE THAT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT TO SLOWLY EXPAND OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA
TONIGHT...WITH THE STL METRO LIKELY ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
THREAT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.  DUE TO PROGGED LOW LEVEL
FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HAVE UPPED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY
OVER OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

HOWEVER...FROM SATURDAY MORNING ON FEATURES AND MODEL SPECIFICS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE AND BECOME INCREASING NEBULOUS.  WHILE MODELS DO
AGREE THAT NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY...THEY DISAGREE WITH THEIR
HANDLING OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS IT
STRETCHES SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY MERGING WITH ANOTHER WEAK
CIRCULATION ALONG THE GULF COAST (WHICH APPEARS TO ORIGINATE WITH
A BIT OF ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF FROM THE BASE OF THE CURRENT EAST
COAST TROF). GFS AND NAM SUGGEST SOME TYPE OF REMNANT CIRCULATION
TAKING UP RESIDENCE IN THE VICINITY OF SW MO BY SUNDAY WITH
RESIDUAL SURFACE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE AREA...WHILE
ECMWF WANTS TO PUSH THE INCREASINGLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH WITH TIME.

IF NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS DO COME TO FRUITION ON SUNDAY...AND IF NAM
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST (WHICH IS OFTEN TOO HIGH) ALSO
VERIFIES...THEN THE DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN JEOPARDY.
HOWEVER...WOULD LIKE TO SEE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THESE WEAK
FEATURES AND TRENDS BEFORE REINTRODUCING CONVECTION ON SUNDAY.  SO
FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND THE FORECAST TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION...NAMELY THUNDESTORM CHANCES EXPANDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM NW TO
SE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE THE DISCREPANCY IN THE UA PROGS ON SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT WESTERN RIDGE WILLL BE EXPANDING EAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.  THIS SHOULD MEAN DRY
WEATHER FOR THE FA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO LATE
SUMMER LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S.

TRUETT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

EXCEPT FOR SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG BETWEEN 28/06Z AND SUNRISE
(ESPECIALLY AT KSUS WHERE T-TD SPREADS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO 1
DEGREE), VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SH/TS LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD (AFTER 29/03Z) AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING/COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS ATTM. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH.

KANOFSKY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     83  69  86  69 /  10  20  30  30
QUINCY          80  66  81  64 /  20  50  30  10
COLUMBIA        82  67  83  65 /  20  40  20  20
JEFFERSON CITY  83  67  84  65 /  20  40  20  20
SALEM           82  65  85  67 /   5  10  20  30
FARMINGTON      81  63  84  65 /   5  10  20  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 280844
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
344 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN ACROSS FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT. DESPITE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY ON SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, THERE IS A
LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. FEEL THAT BEST CHANCES OF SOME SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI
AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

BYRD

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE THAT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT TO SLOWLY EXPAND OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA
TONIGHT...WITH THE STL METRO LIKELY ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
THREAT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.  DUE TO PROGGED LOW LEVEL
FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HAVE UPPED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY
OVER OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

HOWEVER...FROM SATURDAY MORNING ON FEATURES AND MODEL SPECIFICS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE AND BECOME INCREASING NEBULOUS.  WHILE MODELS DO
AGREE THAT NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY...THEY DISAGREE WITH THEIR
HANDLING OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS IT
STRETCHES SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY MERGING WITH ANOTHER WEAK
CIRCULATION ALONG THE GULF COAST (WHICH APPEARS TO ORIGINATE WITH
A BIT OF ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF FROM THE BASE OF THE CURRENT EAST
COAST TROF). GFS AND NAM SUGGEST SOME TYPE OF REMNANT CIRCULATION
TAKING UP RESIDENCE IN THE VICINITY OF SW MO BY SUNDAY WITH
RESIDUAL SURFACE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE AREA...WHILE
ECMWF WANTS TO PUSH THE INCREASINGLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH WITH TIME.

IF NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS DO COME TO FRUITION ON SUNDAY...AND IF NAM
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST (WHICH IS OFTEN TOO HIGH) ALSO
VERIFIES...THEN THE DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN JEOPARDY.
HOWEVER...WOULD LIKE TO SEE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THESE WEAK
FEATURES AND TRENDS BEFORE REINTRODUCING CONVECTION ON SUNDAY.  SO
FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND THE FORECAST TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION...NAMELY THUNDESTORM CHANCES EXPANDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM NW TO
SE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE THE DISCREPANCY IN THE UA PROGS ON SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT WESTERN RIDGE WILLL BE EXPANDING EAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.  THIS SHOULD MEAN DRY
WEATHER FOR THE FA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO LATE
SUMMER LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S.

TRUETT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

EXCEPT FOR SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG BETWEEN 28/06Z AND SUNRISE
(ESPECIALLY AT KSUS WHERE T-TD SPREADS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO 1
DEGREE), VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SH/TS LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD (AFTER 29/03Z) AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING/COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS ATTM. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH.

KANOFSKY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     83  69  86  69 /  10  20  30  30
QUINCY          80  66  81  64 /  20  50  30  10
COLUMBIA        82  67  83  65 /  20  40  20  20
JEFFERSON CITY  83  67  84  65 /  20  40  20  20
SALEM           82  65  85  67 /   5  10  20  30
FARMINGTON      81  63  84  65 /   5  10  20  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 280844
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
344 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN ACROSS FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT. DESPITE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY ON SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, THERE IS A
LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. FEEL THAT BEST CHANCES OF SOME SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI
AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

BYRD

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE THAT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT TO SLOWLY EXPAND OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA
TONIGHT...WITH THE STL METRO LIKELY ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
THREAT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.  DUE TO PROGGED LOW LEVEL
FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HAVE UPPED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY
OVER OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

HOWEVER...FROM SATURDAY MORNING ON FEATURES AND MODEL SPECIFICS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE AND BECOME INCREASING NEBULOUS.  WHILE MODELS DO
AGREE THAT NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY...THEY DISAGREE WITH THEIR
HANDLING OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS IT
STRETCHES SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY MERGING WITH ANOTHER WEAK
CIRCULATION ALONG THE GULF COAST (WHICH APPEARS TO ORIGINATE WITH
A BIT OF ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF FROM THE BASE OF THE CURRENT EAST
COAST TROF). GFS AND NAM SUGGEST SOME TYPE OF REMNANT CIRCULATION
TAKING UP RESIDENCE IN THE VICINITY OF SW MO BY SUNDAY WITH
RESIDUAL SURFACE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE AREA...WHILE
ECMWF WANTS TO PUSH THE INCREASINGLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH WITH TIME.

IF NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS DO COME TO FRUITION ON SUNDAY...AND IF NAM
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST (WHICH IS OFTEN TOO HIGH) ALSO
VERIFIES...THEN THE DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN JEOPARDY.
HOWEVER...WOULD LIKE TO SEE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THESE WEAK
FEATURES AND TRENDS BEFORE REINTRODUCING CONVECTION ON SUNDAY.  SO
FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND THE FORECAST TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION...NAMELY THUNDESTORM CHANCES EXPANDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM NW TO
SE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE THE DISCREPANCY IN THE UA PROGS ON SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT WESTERN RIDGE WILLL BE EXPANDING EAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.  THIS SHOULD MEAN DRY
WEATHER FOR THE FA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO LATE
SUMMER LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S.

TRUETT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

EXCEPT FOR SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG BETWEEN 28/06Z AND SUNRISE
(ESPECIALLY AT KSUS WHERE T-TD SPREADS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO 1
DEGREE), VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SH/TS LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD (AFTER 29/03Z) AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING/COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS ATTM. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH.

KANOFSKY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     83  69  86  69 /  10  20  30  30
QUINCY          80  66  81  64 /  20  50  30  10
COLUMBIA        82  67  83  65 /  20  40  20  20
JEFFERSON CITY  83  67  84  65 /  20  40  20  20
SALEM           82  65  85  67 /   5  10  20  30
FARMINGTON      81  63  84  65 /   5  10  20  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KEAX 280825
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
325 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Early this morning,  an area of showers and thunderstorms
extending from NW Missouri back west into central Kansas and SE
Nebraska where a cold front resides continues to push eastward.
These storms are being fueled by warm air advection ahead of the
front and a upper level shortwave across the eastern Plains. These
showers and thunderstorms should continue to move east through the
morning hours before dissipating early this afternoon. However, the
slow moving cold front will move into eastern Kansas by late this
afternoon and daytime heating as well as  another upper level
shortwave moving into the region will spark another round of storms.
Storms are not expected to be strong as instability is weak, with
weak lapse rates. These storms should continue to progress slowly
east across the area tonight out ahead of the cold front. There
could even be a few left over showers across the eastern CWA
Saturday morning before the cold front clears the area. Models stall
the cold front south of the area on Saturday and precipitation
should remain south of the area. However, if the front stall a
little further north storms could again be possible across the
southern CWA during the day Saturday. Temperatures behind the front
on Saturday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Beyond Saturday, expect dry conditions with a warming trend through
the middle of next week. This will be thanks to a upper level ridge
which is currently over the western CONUS building eastward over the
Plains and Midwest on Sunday. Highs Sunday will be in the mid 80s.
Warm air advection on Monday and Tuesday will help temperatures
continue to rise with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s by
Tuesday. Models suggest the upper ridge begins to weaken by
Wednesday as a series of shortwaves flattens out the ridge over the
Plains and Midwest. The main storm track however, should remain well
north of the forecast area. However, cloud cover on Wednesday and
Thursday could drop temperatures a degree or two into the mid 80s to
near 90. The upper ridge does look to reassert itself by the end of
next week keeping conditions warm and dry.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Showers and isolated storms will continue to build east overnight,
impacting terminals starting between 08z-10z, and continuing into
mid-morning. A break in precipitation is still expected between 16z
and mid-afternoon Friday, then scattered storms will develop and
move near the terminals for late afternoon through early overnight.
Once the timing and placement of convection becomes clearer Friday
evening, may need a prevailing TSRA group added for all sites. Cold
frontal passage should occur near or just beyond the end of the TAF
period, veering winds sharply to the north northwest.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin




000
FXUS63 KEAX 280825
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
325 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Early this morning,  an area of showers and thunderstorms
extending from NW Missouri back west into central Kansas and SE
Nebraska where a cold front resides continues to push eastward.
These storms are being fueled by warm air advection ahead of the
front and a upper level shortwave across the eastern Plains. These
showers and thunderstorms should continue to move east through the
morning hours before dissipating early this afternoon. However, the
slow moving cold front will move into eastern Kansas by late this
afternoon and daytime heating as well as  another upper level
shortwave moving into the region will spark another round of storms.
Storms are not expected to be strong as instability is weak, with
weak lapse rates. These storms should continue to progress slowly
east across the area tonight out ahead of the cold front. There
could even be a few left over showers across the eastern CWA
Saturday morning before the cold front clears the area. Models stall
the cold front south of the area on Saturday and precipitation
should remain south of the area. However, if the front stall a
little further north storms could again be possible across the
southern CWA during the day Saturday. Temperatures behind the front
on Saturday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Beyond Saturday, expect dry conditions with a warming trend through
the middle of next week. This will be thanks to a upper level ridge
which is currently over the western CONUS building eastward over the
Plains and Midwest on Sunday. Highs Sunday will be in the mid 80s.
Warm air advection on Monday and Tuesday will help temperatures
continue to rise with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s by
Tuesday. Models suggest the upper ridge begins to weaken by
Wednesday as a series of shortwaves flattens out the ridge over the
Plains and Midwest. The main storm track however, should remain well
north of the forecast area. However, cloud cover on Wednesday and
Thursday could drop temperatures a degree or two into the mid 80s to
near 90. The upper ridge does look to reassert itself by the end of
next week keeping conditions warm and dry.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Showers and isolated storms will continue to build east overnight,
impacting terminals starting between 08z-10z, and continuing into
mid-morning. A break in precipitation is still expected between 16z
and mid-afternoon Friday, then scattered storms will develop and
move near the terminals for late afternoon through early overnight.
Once the timing and placement of convection becomes clearer Friday
evening, may need a prevailing TSRA group added for all sites. Cold
frontal passage should occur near or just beyond the end of the TAF
period, veering winds sharply to the north northwest.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin



000
FXUS63 KEAX 280825
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
325 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Early this morning,  an area of showers and thunderstorms
extending from NW Missouri back west into central Kansas and SE
Nebraska where a cold front resides continues to push eastward.
These storms are being fueled by warm air advection ahead of the
front and a upper level shortwave across the eastern Plains. These
showers and thunderstorms should continue to move east through the
morning hours before dissipating early this afternoon. However, the
slow moving cold front will move into eastern Kansas by late this
afternoon and daytime heating as well as  another upper level
shortwave moving into the region will spark another round of storms.
Storms are not expected to be strong as instability is weak, with
weak lapse rates. These storms should continue to progress slowly
east across the area tonight out ahead of the cold front. There
could even be a few left over showers across the eastern CWA
Saturday morning before the cold front clears the area. Models stall
the cold front south of the area on Saturday and precipitation
should remain south of the area. However, if the front stall a
little further north storms could again be possible across the
southern CWA during the day Saturday. Temperatures behind the front
on Saturday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Beyond Saturday, expect dry conditions with a warming trend through
the middle of next week. This will be thanks to a upper level ridge
which is currently over the western CONUS building eastward over the
Plains and Midwest on Sunday. Highs Sunday will be in the mid 80s.
Warm air advection on Monday and Tuesday will help temperatures
continue to rise with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s by
Tuesday. Models suggest the upper ridge begins to weaken by
Wednesday as a series of shortwaves flattens out the ridge over the
Plains and Midwest. The main storm track however, should remain well
north of the forecast area. However, cloud cover on Wednesday and
Thursday could drop temperatures a degree or two into the mid 80s to
near 90. The upper ridge does look to reassert itself by the end of
next week keeping conditions warm and dry.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Showers and isolated storms will continue to build east overnight,
impacting terminals starting between 08z-10z, and continuing into
mid-morning. A break in precipitation is still expected between 16z
and mid-afternoon Friday, then scattered storms will develop and
move near the terminals for late afternoon through early overnight.
Once the timing and placement of convection becomes clearer Friday
evening, may need a prevailing TSRA group added for all sites. Cold
frontal passage should occur near or just beyond the end of the TAF
period, veering winds sharply to the north northwest.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin



000
FXUS63 KEAX 280825
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
325 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Early this morning,  an area of showers and thunderstorms
extending from NW Missouri back west into central Kansas and SE
Nebraska where a cold front resides continues to push eastward.
These storms are being fueled by warm air advection ahead of the
front and a upper level shortwave across the eastern Plains. These
showers and thunderstorms should continue to move east through the
morning hours before dissipating early this afternoon. However, the
slow moving cold front will move into eastern Kansas by late this
afternoon and daytime heating as well as  another upper level
shortwave moving into the region will spark another round of storms.
Storms are not expected to be strong as instability is weak, with
weak lapse rates. These storms should continue to progress slowly
east across the area tonight out ahead of the cold front. There
could even be a few left over showers across the eastern CWA
Saturday morning before the cold front clears the area. Models stall
the cold front south of the area on Saturday and precipitation
should remain south of the area. However, if the front stall a
little further north storms could again be possible across the
southern CWA during the day Saturday. Temperatures behind the front
on Saturday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Beyond Saturday, expect dry conditions with a warming trend through
the middle of next week. This will be thanks to a upper level ridge
which is currently over the western CONUS building eastward over the
Plains and Midwest on Sunday. Highs Sunday will be in the mid 80s.
Warm air advection on Monday and Tuesday will help temperatures
continue to rise with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s by
Tuesday. Models suggest the upper ridge begins to weaken by
Wednesday as a series of shortwaves flattens out the ridge over the
Plains and Midwest. The main storm track however, should remain well
north of the forecast area. However, cloud cover on Wednesday and
Thursday could drop temperatures a degree or two into the mid 80s to
near 90. The upper ridge does look to reassert itself by the end of
next week keeping conditions warm and dry.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Showers and isolated storms will continue to build east overnight,
impacting terminals starting between 08z-10z, and continuing into
mid-morning. A break in precipitation is still expected between 16z
and mid-afternoon Friday, then scattered storms will develop and
move near the terminals for late afternoon through early overnight.
Once the timing and placement of convection becomes clearer Friday
evening, may need a prevailing TSRA group added for all sites. Cold
frontal passage should occur near or just beyond the end of the TAF
period, veering winds sharply to the north northwest.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin




000
FXUS63 KSGF 280738
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
238 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

It was a comfortable and quiet night over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures cooled into the 50s and 60s,
under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds.

Showers and thunderstorms were observed over central Kansas as an
upper level disturbance was passing over this area.

This feature will approach the Ozarks today, helping to trigger
some rain over southeast Kansas and western Missouri. We think
most locations across the Ozarks will remain dry, since this
activity will have a tendency to dissipate further east. Therefore
locations east of Highway 65 will have good chances for dry
weather through this afternoon.

Highs today are expected to warm into the low to mid 80s in all
locations.

As we progress into tonight, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to increase, as a secondary speed max approaches from
the northwest. The better chances for rain will once again occur
over southeast Kansas and western Missouri. Tonight`s lows will
fall into the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)

For Saturday, we are looking at the possibility of isolated
showers and thunderstorms, although most locations can plan for a
dry day.

We start to see an unusual pattern take shape as the primary belt
of westerlies moves well into southern Canada and the Hudson Bay.
Meanwhile, the upper trough currently over the southeast United
States will retro-grade west into the Ozarks, creating isolated to
scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms.

The axis of this trough will be positioned over the Ozarks both
Sunday and Monday. Therefore, will need to carry at least
scattered chances for rain both of these days.

By Tuesday, it`s a little more uncertain on where this weakness
will be positioned. Will carry lower precip chances for the
middle and end of next week.

One item we do know, temperatures and heat indices will be on the
rise next week. Readings well into the middle and upper 80s are
expected on an afternoon basis. We can also expect increased
humidity, causing heat indices to rise into the low to middle 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to continue through Friday evening
with increasing high clouds. A cold front will approach western
Missouri Friday evening, but most associated thunderstorm
activity is expected to remain west of the region until later
Friday night. Light winds tonight will increase a bit out of the
south on Friday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann



000
FXUS63 KSGF 280738
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
238 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

It was a comfortable and quiet night over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures cooled into the 50s and 60s,
under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds.

Showers and thunderstorms were observed over central Kansas as an
upper level disturbance was passing over this area.

This feature will approach the Ozarks today, helping to trigger
some rain over southeast Kansas and western Missouri. We think
most locations across the Ozarks will remain dry, since this
activity will have a tendency to dissipate further east. Therefore
locations east of Highway 65 will have good chances for dry
weather through this afternoon.

Highs today are expected to warm into the low to mid 80s in all
locations.

As we progress into tonight, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to increase, as a secondary speed max approaches from
the northwest. The better chances for rain will once again occur
over southeast Kansas and western Missouri. Tonight`s lows will
fall into the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)

For Saturday, we are looking at the possibility of isolated
showers and thunderstorms, although most locations can plan for a
dry day.

We start to see an unusual pattern take shape as the primary belt
of westerlies moves well into southern Canada and the Hudson Bay.
Meanwhile, the upper trough currently over the southeast United
States will retro-grade west into the Ozarks, creating isolated to
scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms.

The axis of this trough will be positioned over the Ozarks both
Sunday and Monday. Therefore, will need to carry at least
scattered chances for rain both of these days.

By Tuesday, it`s a little more uncertain on where this weakness
will be positioned. Will carry lower precip chances for the
middle and end of next week.

One item we do know, temperatures and heat indices will be on the
rise next week. Readings well into the middle and upper 80s are
expected on an afternoon basis. We can also expect increased
humidity, causing heat indices to rise into the low to middle 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to continue through Friday evening
with increasing high clouds. A cold front will approach western
Missouri Friday evening, but most associated thunderstorm
activity is expected to remain west of the region until later
Friday night. Light winds tonight will increase a bit out of the
south on Friday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann




000
FXUS63 KSGF 280738
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
238 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

It was a comfortable and quiet night over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures cooled into the 50s and 60s,
under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds.

Showers and thunderstorms were observed over central Kansas as an
upper level disturbance was passing over this area.

This feature will approach the Ozarks today, helping to trigger
some rain over southeast Kansas and western Missouri. We think
most locations across the Ozarks will remain dry, since this
activity will have a tendency to dissipate further east. Therefore
locations east of Highway 65 will have good chances for dry
weather through this afternoon.

Highs today are expected to warm into the low to mid 80s in all
locations.

As we progress into tonight, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to increase, as a secondary speed max approaches from
the northwest. The better chances for rain will once again occur
over southeast Kansas and western Missouri. Tonight`s lows will
fall into the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)

For Saturday, we are looking at the possibility of isolated
showers and thunderstorms, although most locations can plan for a
dry day.

We start to see an unusual pattern take shape as the primary belt
of westerlies moves well into southern Canada and the Hudson Bay.
Meanwhile, the upper trough currently over the southeast United
States will retro-grade west into the Ozarks, creating isolated to
scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms.

The axis of this trough will be positioned over the Ozarks both
Sunday and Monday. Therefore, will need to carry at least
scattered chances for rain both of these days.

By Tuesday, it`s a little more uncertain on where this weakness
will be positioned. Will carry lower precip chances for the
middle and end of next week.

One item we do know, temperatures and heat indices will be on the
rise next week. Readings well into the middle and upper 80s are
expected on an afternoon basis. We can also expect increased
humidity, causing heat indices to rise into the low to middle 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to continue through Friday evening
with increasing high clouds. A cold front will approach western
Missouri Friday evening, but most associated thunderstorm
activity is expected to remain west of the region until later
Friday night. Light winds tonight will increase a bit out of the
south on Friday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann



000
FXUS63 KSGF 280738
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
238 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

It was a comfortable and quiet night over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures cooled into the 50s and 60s,
under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds.

Showers and thunderstorms were observed over central Kansas as an
upper level disturbance was passing over this area.

This feature will approach the Ozarks today, helping to trigger
some rain over southeast Kansas and western Missouri. We think
most locations across the Ozarks will remain dry, since this
activity will have a tendency to dissipate further east. Therefore
locations east of Highway 65 will have good chances for dry
weather through this afternoon.

Highs today are expected to warm into the low to mid 80s in all
locations.

As we progress into tonight, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to increase, as a secondary speed max approaches from
the northwest. The better chances for rain will once again occur
over southeast Kansas and western Missouri. Tonight`s lows will
fall into the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)

For Saturday, we are looking at the possibility of isolated
showers and thunderstorms, although most locations can plan for a
dry day.

We start to see an unusual pattern take shape as the primary belt
of westerlies moves well into southern Canada and the Hudson Bay.
Meanwhile, the upper trough currently over the southeast United
States will retro-grade west into the Ozarks, creating isolated to
scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms.

The axis of this trough will be positioned over the Ozarks both
Sunday and Monday. Therefore, will need to carry at least
scattered chances for rain both of these days.

By Tuesday, it`s a little more uncertain on where this weakness
will be positioned. Will carry lower precip chances for the
middle and end of next week.

One item we do know, temperatures and heat indices will be on the
rise next week. Readings well into the middle and upper 80s are
expected on an afternoon basis. We can also expect increased
humidity, causing heat indices to rise into the low to middle 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to continue through Friday evening
with increasing high clouds. A cold front will approach western
Missouri Friday evening, but most associated thunderstorm
activity is expected to remain west of the region until later
Friday night. Light winds tonight will increase a bit out of the
south on Friday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann




000
FXUS63 KLSX 280505
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1205 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH AT
MIDDAY IN AREAL COVERAGE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS
DIMINISHED IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL JET BACKING.  BELIEVE THAT OUR
AREA WILL STAY DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.  BY LATE TONIGHT
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL
MOVE EAST SUPPLYING ASCENT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THIS ASCENT IN ADDITION TO THE LEVEL JET
WHICH WILL VEER AGAIN AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE UNDERNEATH THE ASCENT THAT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OVER IOWA
AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

A COMPROMISE OF MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT THEY ARE
CLOSE TO CURRENT DEWPOINTS WITH CLOUD COVER ALREADY MOVING OVER THE
AREA.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND
CENTRAL MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL...NORTH AND WEST OF STL ON FRIDAY AS
A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET BRINGS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THIS AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH WESTERN IA ALONG WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT. THE THREAT
FOR CONVECTION MAY SHIFT AS FAR SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STL AREA BY
12Z SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN IA
AND DRAGS THE COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE NAM MODEL SEEMS A LITTLE TOO
SLOW WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT AND MAY BE A LITTLE TOO STRONG. ITS POPS AND QPF MAY ALSO
BE TOO HIGH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. PREFER THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS WHICH HAVE LIGHTER AND MORE
SCATTERED QPF FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL REDUCE THE
POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATAGORY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO AND
SOUTHWEST IL BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SHEAR AXIS.
ANY NOTICEABLE COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST MO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS TRY TO BUILD
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MO FOR THE NEXT
WORK WEEK WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OR A SHEAR AXIS
REMAINING NEAR SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHWEST IL. SURFACE AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY WITH SURFACE
AND 850 MB RIDGING EAST OR SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MO/SOUTHWEST IL NEAR WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOWS/TROUGHING
...SHEAR AXIS.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

EXCEPT FOR SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG BETWEEN 28/06Z AND SUNRISE
(ESPECIALLY AT KSUS WHERE T-TD SPREADS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO 1
DEGREE), VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SH/TS LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD (AFTER 29/03Z) AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING/COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS ATTM. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH.

KANOFSKY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 280505
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1205 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH AT
MIDDAY IN AREAL COVERAGE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS
DIMINISHED IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL JET BACKING.  BELIEVE THAT OUR
AREA WILL STAY DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.  BY LATE TONIGHT
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL
MOVE EAST SUPPLYING ASCENT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THIS ASCENT IN ADDITION TO THE LEVEL JET
WHICH WILL VEER AGAIN AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE UNDERNEATH THE ASCENT THAT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OVER IOWA
AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

A COMPROMISE OF MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT THEY ARE
CLOSE TO CURRENT DEWPOINTS WITH CLOUD COVER ALREADY MOVING OVER THE
AREA.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND
CENTRAL MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL...NORTH AND WEST OF STL ON FRIDAY AS
A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET BRINGS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THIS AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH WESTERN IA ALONG WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT. THE THREAT
FOR CONVECTION MAY SHIFT AS FAR SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STL AREA BY
12Z SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN IA
AND DRAGS THE COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE NAM MODEL SEEMS A LITTLE TOO
SLOW WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT AND MAY BE A LITTLE TOO STRONG. ITS POPS AND QPF MAY ALSO
BE TOO HIGH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. PREFER THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS WHICH HAVE LIGHTER AND MORE
SCATTERED QPF FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL REDUCE THE
POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATAGORY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO AND
SOUTHWEST IL BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SHEAR AXIS.
ANY NOTICEABLE COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST MO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS TRY TO BUILD
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MO FOR THE NEXT
WORK WEEK WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OR A SHEAR AXIS
REMAINING NEAR SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHWEST IL. SURFACE AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY WITH SURFACE
AND 850 MB RIDGING EAST OR SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MO/SOUTHWEST IL NEAR WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOWS/TROUGHING
...SHEAR AXIS.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

EXCEPT FOR SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG BETWEEN 28/06Z AND SUNRISE
(ESPECIALLY AT KSUS WHERE T-TD SPREADS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO 1
DEGREE), VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SH/TS LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD (AFTER 29/03Z) AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING/COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS ATTM. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH.

KANOFSKY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 280505
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1205 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH AT
MIDDAY IN AREAL COVERAGE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS
DIMINISHED IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL JET BACKING.  BELIEVE THAT OUR
AREA WILL STAY DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.  BY LATE TONIGHT
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL
MOVE EAST SUPPLYING ASCENT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THIS ASCENT IN ADDITION TO THE LEVEL JET
WHICH WILL VEER AGAIN AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE UNDERNEATH THE ASCENT THAT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OVER IOWA
AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

A COMPROMISE OF MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT THEY ARE
CLOSE TO CURRENT DEWPOINTS WITH CLOUD COVER ALREADY MOVING OVER THE
AREA.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND
CENTRAL MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL...NORTH AND WEST OF STL ON FRIDAY AS
A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET BRINGS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THIS AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH WESTERN IA ALONG WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT. THE THREAT
FOR CONVECTION MAY SHIFT AS FAR SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STL AREA BY
12Z SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN IA
AND DRAGS THE COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE NAM MODEL SEEMS A LITTLE TOO
SLOW WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT AND MAY BE A LITTLE TOO STRONG. ITS POPS AND QPF MAY ALSO
BE TOO HIGH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. PREFER THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS WHICH HAVE LIGHTER AND MORE
SCATTERED QPF FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL REDUCE THE
POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATAGORY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO AND
SOUTHWEST IL BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SHEAR AXIS.
ANY NOTICEABLE COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST MO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS TRY TO BUILD
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MO FOR THE NEXT
WORK WEEK WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OR A SHEAR AXIS
REMAINING NEAR SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHWEST IL. SURFACE AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY WITH SURFACE
AND 850 MB RIDGING EAST OR SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MO/SOUTHWEST IL NEAR WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOWS/TROUGHING
...SHEAR AXIS.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

EXCEPT FOR SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG BETWEEN 28/06Z AND SUNRISE
(ESPECIALLY AT KSUS WHERE T-TD SPREADS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO 1
DEGREE), VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SH/TS LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD (AFTER 29/03Z) AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING/COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS ATTM. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH.

KANOFSKY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 280505
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1205 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH AT
MIDDAY IN AREAL COVERAGE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS
DIMINISHED IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL JET BACKING.  BELIEVE THAT OUR
AREA WILL STAY DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.  BY LATE TONIGHT
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL
MOVE EAST SUPPLYING ASCENT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THIS ASCENT IN ADDITION TO THE LEVEL JET
WHICH WILL VEER AGAIN AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE UNDERNEATH THE ASCENT THAT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OVER IOWA
AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

A COMPROMISE OF MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT THEY ARE
CLOSE TO CURRENT DEWPOINTS WITH CLOUD COVER ALREADY MOVING OVER THE
AREA.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND
CENTRAL MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL...NORTH AND WEST OF STL ON FRIDAY AS
A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET BRINGS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THIS AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH WESTERN IA ALONG WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT. THE THREAT
FOR CONVECTION MAY SHIFT AS FAR SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STL AREA BY
12Z SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN IA
AND DRAGS THE COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE NAM MODEL SEEMS A LITTLE TOO
SLOW WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT AND MAY BE A LITTLE TOO STRONG. ITS POPS AND QPF MAY ALSO
BE TOO HIGH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. PREFER THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS WHICH HAVE LIGHTER AND MORE
SCATTERED QPF FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL REDUCE THE
POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATAGORY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO AND
SOUTHWEST IL BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SHEAR AXIS.
ANY NOTICEABLE COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST MO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS TRY TO BUILD
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MO FOR THE NEXT
WORK WEEK WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OR A SHEAR AXIS
REMAINING NEAR SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHWEST IL. SURFACE AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY WITH SURFACE
AND 850 MB RIDGING EAST OR SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MO/SOUTHWEST IL NEAR WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOWS/TROUGHING
...SHEAR AXIS.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

EXCEPT FOR SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG BETWEEN 28/06Z AND SUNRISE
(ESPECIALLY AT KSUS WHERE T-TD SPREADS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO 1
DEGREE), VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SH/TS LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD (AFTER 29/03Z) AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING/COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS ATTM. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH.

KANOFSKY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 280505
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1205 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH AT
MIDDAY IN AREAL COVERAGE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS
DIMINISHED IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL JET BACKING.  BELIEVE THAT OUR
AREA WILL STAY DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.  BY LATE TONIGHT
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL
MOVE EAST SUPPLYING ASCENT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THIS ASCENT IN ADDITION TO THE LEVEL JET
WHICH WILL VEER AGAIN AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE UNDERNEATH THE ASCENT THAT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OVER IOWA
AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

A COMPROMISE OF MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT THEY ARE
CLOSE TO CURRENT DEWPOINTS WITH CLOUD COVER ALREADY MOVING OVER THE
AREA.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND
CENTRAL MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL...NORTH AND WEST OF STL ON FRIDAY AS
A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET BRINGS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THIS AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH WESTERN IA ALONG WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT. THE THREAT
FOR CONVECTION MAY SHIFT AS FAR SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STL AREA BY
12Z SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN IA
AND DRAGS THE COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE NAM MODEL SEEMS A LITTLE TOO
SLOW WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT AND MAY BE A LITTLE TOO STRONG. ITS POPS AND QPF MAY ALSO
BE TOO HIGH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. PREFER THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS WHICH HAVE LIGHTER AND MORE
SCATTERED QPF FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL REDUCE THE
POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATAGORY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO AND
SOUTHWEST IL BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SHEAR AXIS.
ANY NOTICEABLE COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST MO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS TRY TO BUILD
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MO FOR THE NEXT
WORK WEEK WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OR A SHEAR AXIS
REMAINING NEAR SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHWEST IL. SURFACE AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY WITH SURFACE
AND 850 MB RIDGING EAST OR SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MO/SOUTHWEST IL NEAR WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOWS/TROUGHING
...SHEAR AXIS.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

EXCEPT FOR SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG BETWEEN 28/06Z AND SUNRISE
(ESPECIALLY AT KSUS WHERE T-TD SPREADS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO 1
DEGREE), VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SH/TS LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD (AFTER 29/03Z) AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING/COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS ATTM. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH.

KANOFSKY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 280505
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1205 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH AT
MIDDAY IN AREAL COVERAGE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS
DIMINISHED IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL JET BACKING.  BELIEVE THAT OUR
AREA WILL STAY DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.  BY LATE TONIGHT
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL
MOVE EAST SUPPLYING ASCENT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THIS ASCENT IN ADDITION TO THE LEVEL JET
WHICH WILL VEER AGAIN AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE UNDERNEATH THE ASCENT THAT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OVER IOWA
AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

A COMPROMISE OF MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT THEY ARE
CLOSE TO CURRENT DEWPOINTS WITH CLOUD COVER ALREADY MOVING OVER THE
AREA.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND
CENTRAL MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL...NORTH AND WEST OF STL ON FRIDAY AS
A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET BRINGS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THIS AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH WESTERN IA ALONG WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT. THE THREAT
FOR CONVECTION MAY SHIFT AS FAR SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STL AREA BY
12Z SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN IA
AND DRAGS THE COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE NAM MODEL SEEMS A LITTLE TOO
SLOW WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT AND MAY BE A LITTLE TOO STRONG. ITS POPS AND QPF MAY ALSO
BE TOO HIGH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. PREFER THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS WHICH HAVE LIGHTER AND MORE
SCATTERED QPF FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL REDUCE THE
POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATAGORY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO AND
SOUTHWEST IL BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SHEAR AXIS.
ANY NOTICEABLE COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST MO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS TRY TO BUILD
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MO FOR THE NEXT
WORK WEEK WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OR A SHEAR AXIS
REMAINING NEAR SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHWEST IL. SURFACE AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY WITH SURFACE
AND 850 MB RIDGING EAST OR SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MO/SOUTHWEST IL NEAR WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOWS/TROUGHING
...SHEAR AXIS.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

EXCEPT FOR SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG BETWEEN 28/06Z AND SUNRISE
(ESPECIALLY AT KSUS WHERE T-TD SPREADS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO 1
DEGREE), VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SH/TS LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD (AFTER 29/03Z) AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING/COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS ATTM. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH.

KANOFSKY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KSGF 280500
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1200 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

The persistent boundary near the MO/KS state line continues to
promote shower/thunderstorm development, however the intensity and
coverage of this activity has been decreasing with time. Lift
along the boundary is waning due to a decrease in convergence and
this trend will continue over the next few hours. Still cannot
rule out a few showers/storms along/west of of the MO/KS state
line, but chances are decreasing by the hour.

Overall, the weather will be mainly quiet over the next 24 hours.
A broad, rather weak shortwave will gradually move southeastward
into the region. A slight chance for a few showers/storms has been
maintained over far northwestern portions of the outlook area
Friday to account for the approach of this feature, but the better
chances will be Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures will
remain at or just below average for late August.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

The aforementioned shortwave will slowly shift into the region
Friday night and Saturday. The associated low level boundary will
be a focus for sporadic shower and thunderstorm development. Model
output varies on the low level boundary strength and potential
instability. Rain chances are a low confidence forecast at this
point, but folks should be aware that at least scattered showers
and storms will be around Friday night into Saturday night. The
risk for severe storms is also uncertain given a wide disparity in
expected instability. The NAM is quite high on dewpoints (a known
high bias) for Saturday, resulting in much higher CAPE values.
Most models are more modest, supportive of thunder, but not
necessarily strong/severe activity. Will definitely keep tabs on
this in the coming forecasts.

Upper level ridging will build across the Plains into the Central
U.S. late this weekend into next week. This will result in
southerly flow and a warmer air mass spreading across the region.
Temperatures in the upper 80s to the lower 90s can be expected
each afternoon next week. Lows in the middle 60s to lower 70s are
expected each night.

Mainly dry conditions are expected through next week. There will
be an upper level low that moves under the Ridge and remains
across the southern U.S. through much of the week. This low will
meander across the western Gulf Coast States if this low drifts
farther to the north a few storms would be possible across mainly
southern Missouri but no widespread shower and storms expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to continue through Friday evening
with increasing high clouds. A cold front will approach western
Missouri Friday evening, but most associated thunderstorm
activity is expected to remain west of the region until later
Friday night. Light winds tonight will increase a bit out of the
south on Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan/Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann




000
FXUS63 KSGF 280500
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1200 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

The persistent boundary near the MO/KS state line continues to
promote shower/thunderstorm development, however the intensity and
coverage of this activity has been decreasing with time. Lift
along the boundary is waning due to a decrease in convergence and
this trend will continue over the next few hours. Still cannot
rule out a few showers/storms along/west of of the MO/KS state
line, but chances are decreasing by the hour.

Overall, the weather will be mainly quiet over the next 24 hours.
A broad, rather weak shortwave will gradually move southeastward
into the region. A slight chance for a few showers/storms has been
maintained over far northwestern portions of the outlook area
Friday to account for the approach of this feature, but the better
chances will be Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures will
remain at or just below average for late August.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

The aforementioned shortwave will slowly shift into the region
Friday night and Saturday. The associated low level boundary will
be a focus for sporadic shower and thunderstorm development. Model
output varies on the low level boundary strength and potential
instability. Rain chances are a low confidence forecast at this
point, but folks should be aware that at least scattered showers
and storms will be around Friday night into Saturday night. The
risk for severe storms is also uncertain given a wide disparity in
expected instability. The NAM is quite high on dewpoints (a known
high bias) for Saturday, resulting in much higher CAPE values.
Most models are more modest, supportive of thunder, but not
necessarily strong/severe activity. Will definitely keep tabs on
this in the coming forecasts.

Upper level ridging will build across the Plains into the Central
U.S. late this weekend into next week. This will result in
southerly flow and a warmer air mass spreading across the region.
Temperatures in the upper 80s to the lower 90s can be expected
each afternoon next week. Lows in the middle 60s to lower 70s are
expected each night.

Mainly dry conditions are expected through next week. There will
be an upper level low that moves under the Ridge and remains
across the southern U.S. through much of the week. This low will
meander across the western Gulf Coast States if this low drifts
farther to the north a few storms would be possible across mainly
southern Missouri but no widespread shower and storms expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to continue through Friday evening
with increasing high clouds. A cold front will approach western
Missouri Friday evening, but most associated thunderstorm
activity is expected to remain west of the region until later
Friday night. Light winds tonight will increase a bit out of the
south on Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan/Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann




000
FXUS63 KSGF 280500
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1200 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

The persistent boundary near the MO/KS state line continues to
promote shower/thunderstorm development, however the intensity and
coverage of this activity has been decreasing with time. Lift
along the boundary is waning due to a decrease in convergence and
this trend will continue over the next few hours. Still cannot
rule out a few showers/storms along/west of of the MO/KS state
line, but chances are decreasing by the hour.

Overall, the weather will be mainly quiet over the next 24 hours.
A broad, rather weak shortwave will gradually move southeastward
into the region. A slight chance for a few showers/storms has been
maintained over far northwestern portions of the outlook area
Friday to account for the approach of this feature, but the better
chances will be Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures will
remain at or just below average for late August.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

The aforementioned shortwave will slowly shift into the region
Friday night and Saturday. The associated low level boundary will
be a focus for sporadic shower and thunderstorm development. Model
output varies on the low level boundary strength and potential
instability. Rain chances are a low confidence forecast at this
point, but folks should be aware that at least scattered showers
and storms will be around Friday night into Saturday night. The
risk for severe storms is also uncertain given a wide disparity in
expected instability. The NAM is quite high on dewpoints (a known
high bias) for Saturday, resulting in much higher CAPE values.
Most models are more modest, supportive of thunder, but not
necessarily strong/severe activity. Will definitely keep tabs on
this in the coming forecasts.

Upper level ridging will build across the Plains into the Central
U.S. late this weekend into next week. This will result in
southerly flow and a warmer air mass spreading across the region.
Temperatures in the upper 80s to the lower 90s can be expected
each afternoon next week. Lows in the middle 60s to lower 70s are
expected each night.

Mainly dry conditions are expected through next week. There will
be an upper level low that moves under the Ridge and remains
across the southern U.S. through much of the week. This low will
meander across the western Gulf Coast States if this low drifts
farther to the north a few storms would be possible across mainly
southern Missouri but no widespread shower and storms expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to continue through Friday evening
with increasing high clouds. A cold front will approach western
Missouri Friday evening, but most associated thunderstorm
activity is expected to remain west of the region until later
Friday night. Light winds tonight will increase a bit out of the
south on Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan/Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann




000
FXUS63 KSGF 280500
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1200 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

The persistent boundary near the MO/KS state line continues to
promote shower/thunderstorm development, however the intensity and
coverage of this activity has been decreasing with time. Lift
along the boundary is waning due to a decrease in convergence and
this trend will continue over the next few hours. Still cannot
rule out a few showers/storms along/west of of the MO/KS state
line, but chances are decreasing by the hour.

Overall, the weather will be mainly quiet over the next 24 hours.
A broad, rather weak shortwave will gradually move southeastward
into the region. A slight chance for a few showers/storms has been
maintained over far northwestern portions of the outlook area
Friday to account for the approach of this feature, but the better
chances will be Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures will
remain at or just below average for late August.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

The aforementioned shortwave will slowly shift into the region
Friday night and Saturday. The associated low level boundary will
be a focus for sporadic shower and thunderstorm development. Model
output varies on the low level boundary strength and potential
instability. Rain chances are a low confidence forecast at this
point, but folks should be aware that at least scattered showers
and storms will be around Friday night into Saturday night. The
risk for severe storms is also uncertain given a wide disparity in
expected instability. The NAM is quite high on dewpoints (a known
high bias) for Saturday, resulting in much higher CAPE values.
Most models are more modest, supportive of thunder, but not
necessarily strong/severe activity. Will definitely keep tabs on
this in the coming forecasts.

Upper level ridging will build across the Plains into the Central
U.S. late this weekend into next week. This will result in
southerly flow and a warmer air mass spreading across the region.
Temperatures in the upper 80s to the lower 90s can be expected
each afternoon next week. Lows in the middle 60s to lower 70s are
expected each night.

Mainly dry conditions are expected through next week. There will
be an upper level low that moves under the Ridge and remains
across the southern U.S. through much of the week. This low will
meander across the western Gulf Coast States if this low drifts
farther to the north a few storms would be possible across mainly
southern Missouri but no widespread shower and storms expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to continue through Friday evening
with increasing high clouds. A cold front will approach western
Missouri Friday evening, but most associated thunderstorm
activity is expected to remain west of the region until later
Friday night. Light winds tonight will increase a bit out of the
south on Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan/Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann




000
FXUS63 KSGF 280500
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1200 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

The persistent boundary near the MO/KS state line continues to
promote shower/thunderstorm development, however the intensity and
coverage of this activity has been decreasing with time. Lift
along the boundary is waning due to a decrease in convergence and
this trend will continue over the next few hours. Still cannot
rule out a few showers/storms along/west of of the MO/KS state
line, but chances are decreasing by the hour.

Overall, the weather will be mainly quiet over the next 24 hours.
A broad, rather weak shortwave will gradually move southeastward
into the region. A slight chance for a few showers/storms has been
maintained over far northwestern portions of the outlook area
Friday to account for the approach of this feature, but the better
chances will be Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures will
remain at or just below average for late August.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

The aforementioned shortwave will slowly shift into the region
Friday night and Saturday. The associated low level boundary will
be a focus for sporadic shower and thunderstorm development. Model
output varies on the low level boundary strength and potential
instability. Rain chances are a low confidence forecast at this
point, but folks should be aware that at least scattered showers
and storms will be around Friday night into Saturday night. The
risk for severe storms is also uncertain given a wide disparity in
expected instability. The NAM is quite high on dewpoints (a known
high bias) for Saturday, resulting in much higher CAPE values.
Most models are more modest, supportive of thunder, but not
necessarily strong/severe activity. Will definitely keep tabs on
this in the coming forecasts.

Upper level ridging will build across the Plains into the Central
U.S. late this weekend into next week. This will result in
southerly flow and a warmer air mass spreading across the region.
Temperatures in the upper 80s to the lower 90s can be expected
each afternoon next week. Lows in the middle 60s to lower 70s are
expected each night.

Mainly dry conditions are expected through next week. There will
be an upper level low that moves under the Ridge and remains
across the southern U.S. through much of the week. This low will
meander across the western Gulf Coast States if this low drifts
farther to the north a few storms would be possible across mainly
southern Missouri but no widespread shower and storms expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to continue through Friday evening
with increasing high clouds. A cold front will approach western
Missouri Friday evening, but most associated thunderstorm
activity is expected to remain west of the region until later
Friday night. Light winds tonight will increase a bit out of the
south on Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan/Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann




000
FXUS63 KEAX 280455
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1155 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Convection from strong isentropic ascent will continue to dissipate
through the afternoon in advance of surface low located over south
central Nebraska. Cloud cover and lingering convection has been a bit
slower to dissipate so have backed off afternoon high temperatures.
Conditions will remain dry through the afternoon over a majority of
the CWA as isentropic forcing tapers off. A lingering isolated
thunderstorm or two will be possible for areas of northern Missouri,
though this too will eventually begin to break up by the early
evening.

A developing shortwave feature cresting the midlevel ridge to the
west will be the primary feature affecting much of Friday. At the
surface, a cold front will sweep through the region by Friday
evening. Convection is expected ahead of the frontal boundary which
will begin impacting northwest Missouri overnight. The system as a
whole will slowly push through the CWA Friday, which will translate
to thunderstorm chances most of the day from west to east. Severe
weather chances are not of great concern at the moment, though
moderate instability could produce robust updrafts at times. Wind
shear will be the limiting factor for severe activity, however. Given
the progged position of the LLJ, the better lift for widespread
convection will remain north of Missouri. However, with precipitable
water values approaching 2 inches across the CWA, the better forcing
over northern Missouri may produce localized heavy rainfall in this
region of enhanced lift.

Once the cold front pushes through the area, a brief cooling trend
will commence Saturday before return southerly flow will bring
increasing temperatures through the early week. At that time, broad
mid-level ridging will resume coupled with an extended drying trend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

By the end of the weekend, into next week expect a dry forecast
through the extended forecast. With the mid level ridge solidly in
place for the majority of next week, expect temperatures to remain
above average, in the upper 80s to lower 90s. With the ridge
centered generally over the Mississippi River Valley the lack of any
significant mid level flow will certainly mitigate the chances of
any showers or thunderstorms from advecting into the area, thus the
dry forecast through the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Showers and isolated storms will continue to build east overnight,
impacting terminals starting between 08z-10z, and continuing into
mid-morning. A break in precipitation is still expected between 16z
and mid-afternoon Friday, then scattered storms will develop and
move near the terminals for late afternoon through early overnight.
Once the timing and placement of convection becomes clearer Friday
evening, may need a prevailing TSRA group added for all sites. Cold
frontal passage should occur near or just beyond the end of the TAF
period, veering winds sharply to the north northwest.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Welsh
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...Laflin



000
FXUS63 KEAX 280455
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1155 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Convection from strong isentropic ascent will continue to dissipate
through the afternoon in advance of surface low located over south
central Nebraska. Cloud cover and lingering convection has been a bit
slower to dissipate so have backed off afternoon high temperatures.
Conditions will remain dry through the afternoon over a majority of
the CWA as isentropic forcing tapers off. A lingering isolated
thunderstorm or two will be possible for areas of northern Missouri,
though this too will eventually begin to break up by the early
evening.

A developing shortwave feature cresting the midlevel ridge to the
west will be the primary feature affecting much of Friday. At the
surface, a cold front will sweep through the region by Friday
evening. Convection is expected ahead of the frontal boundary which
will begin impacting northwest Missouri overnight. The system as a
whole will slowly push through the CWA Friday, which will translate
to thunderstorm chances most of the day from west to east. Severe
weather chances are not of great concern at the moment, though
moderate instability could produce robust updrafts at times. Wind
shear will be the limiting factor for severe activity, however. Given
the progged position of the LLJ, the better lift for widespread
convection will remain north of Missouri. However, with precipitable
water values approaching 2 inches across the CWA, the better forcing
over northern Missouri may produce localized heavy rainfall in this
region of enhanced lift.

Once the cold front pushes through the area, a brief cooling trend
will commence Saturday before return southerly flow will bring
increasing temperatures through the early week. At that time, broad
mid-level ridging will resume coupled with an extended drying trend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

By the end of the weekend, into next week expect a dry forecast
through the extended forecast. With the mid level ridge solidly in
place for the majority of next week, expect temperatures to remain
above average, in the upper 80s to lower 90s. With the ridge
centered generally over the Mississippi River Valley the lack of any
significant mid level flow will certainly mitigate the chances of
any showers or thunderstorms from advecting into the area, thus the
dry forecast through the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Showers and isolated storms will continue to build east overnight,
impacting terminals starting between 08z-10z, and continuing into
mid-morning. A break in precipitation is still expected between 16z
and mid-afternoon Friday, then scattered storms will develop and
move near the terminals for late afternoon through early overnight.
Once the timing and placement of convection becomes clearer Friday
evening, may need a prevailing TSRA group added for all sites. Cold
frontal passage should occur near or just beyond the end of the TAF
period, veering winds sharply to the north northwest.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Welsh
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...Laflin




000
FXUS63 KEAX 272357
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
657 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Convection from strong isentropic ascent will continue to dissipate
through the afternoon in advance of surface low located over south
central Nebraska. Cloud cover and lingering convection has been a bit
slower to dissipate so have backed off afternoon high temperatures.
Conditions will remain dry through the afternoon over a majority of
the CWA as isentropic forcing tapers off. A lingering isolated
thunderstorm or two will be possible for areas of northern Missouri,
though this too will eventually begin to break up by the early
evening.

A developing shortwave feature cresting the midlevel ridge to the
west will be the primary feature affecting much of Friday. At the
surface, a cold front will sweep through the region by Friday
evening. Convection is expected ahead of the frontal boundary which
will begin impacting northwest Missouri overnight. The system as a
whole will slowly push through the CWA Friday, which will translate
to thunderstorm chances most of the day from west to east. Severe
weather chances are not of great concern at the moment, though
moderate instability could produce robust updrafts at times. Wind
shear will be the limiting factor for severe activity, however. Given
the progged position of the LLJ, the better lift for widespread
convection will remain north of Missouri. However, with precipitable
water values approaching 2 inches across the CWA, the better forcing
over northern Missouri may produce localized heavy rainfall in this
region of enhanced lift.

Once the cold front pushes through the area, a brief cooling trend
will commence Saturday before return southerly flow will bring
increasing temperatures through the early week. At that time, broad
mid-level ridging will resume coupled with an extended drying trend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

By the end of the weekend, into next week expect a dry forecast
through the extended forecast. With the mid level ridge solidly in
place for the majority of next week, expect temperatures to remain
above average, in the upper 80s to lower 90s. With the ridge
centered generally over the Mississippi River Valley the lack of any
significant mid level flow will certainly mitigate the chances of
any showers or thunderstorms from advecting into the area, thus the
dry forecast through the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 657 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Isolated showers and perhaps a stray thunderstorm will be possible
again at all terminals by 03z-04z, then will become more probable
after 08z as a complex moves in from the west. A short break in
precipitation is possible between 16z-mid afternoon, then another
round of showers and storms will be possible from 21z onward at all
TAF sites. Ceilings and visibilities will be mainly VFR except in
periods of heavier precipitation, and winds will veer and increase
out of the southwest during the daylight hours Friday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Welsh
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...Laflin



000
FXUS63 KEAX 272357
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
657 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Convection from strong isentropic ascent will continue to dissipate
through the afternoon in advance of surface low located over south
central Nebraska. Cloud cover and lingering convection has been a bit
slower to dissipate so have backed off afternoon high temperatures.
Conditions will remain dry through the afternoon over a majority of
the CWA as isentropic forcing tapers off. A lingering isolated
thunderstorm or two will be possible for areas of northern Missouri,
though this too will eventually begin to break up by the early
evening.

A developing shortwave feature cresting the midlevel ridge to the
west will be the primary feature affecting much of Friday. At the
surface, a cold front will sweep through the region by Friday
evening. Convection is expected ahead of the frontal boundary which
will begin impacting northwest Missouri overnight. The system as a
whole will slowly push through the CWA Friday, which will translate
to thunderstorm chances most of the day from west to east. Severe
weather chances are not of great concern at the moment, though
moderate instability could produce robust updrafts at times. Wind
shear will be the limiting factor for severe activity, however. Given
the progged position of the LLJ, the better lift for widespread
convection will remain north of Missouri. However, with precipitable
water values approaching 2 inches across the CWA, the better forcing
over northern Missouri may produce localized heavy rainfall in this
region of enhanced lift.

Once the cold front pushes through the area, a brief cooling trend
will commence Saturday before return southerly flow will bring
increasing temperatures through the early week. At that time, broad
mid-level ridging will resume coupled with an extended drying trend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

By the end of the weekend, into next week expect a dry forecast
through the extended forecast. With the mid level ridge solidly in
place for the majority of next week, expect temperatures to remain
above average, in the upper 80s to lower 90s. With the ridge
centered generally over the Mississippi River Valley the lack of any
significant mid level flow will certainly mitigate the chances of
any showers or thunderstorms from advecting into the area, thus the
dry forecast through the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 657 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Isolated showers and perhaps a stray thunderstorm will be possible
again at all terminals by 03z-04z, then will become more probable
after 08z as a complex moves in from the west. A short break in
precipitation is possible between 16z-mid afternoon, then another
round of showers and storms will be possible from 21z onward at all
TAF sites. Ceilings and visibilities will be mainly VFR except in
periods of heavier precipitation, and winds will veer and increase
out of the southwest during the daylight hours Friday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Welsh
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...Laflin




000
FXUS63 KEAX 272357
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
657 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Convection from strong isentropic ascent will continue to dissipate
through the afternoon in advance of surface low located over south
central Nebraska. Cloud cover and lingering convection has been a bit
slower to dissipate so have backed off afternoon high temperatures.
Conditions will remain dry through the afternoon over a majority of
the CWA as isentropic forcing tapers off. A lingering isolated
thunderstorm or two will be possible for areas of northern Missouri,
though this too will eventually begin to break up by the early
evening.

A developing shortwave feature cresting the midlevel ridge to the
west will be the primary feature affecting much of Friday. At the
surface, a cold front will sweep through the region by Friday
evening. Convection is expected ahead of the frontal boundary which
will begin impacting northwest Missouri overnight. The system as a
whole will slowly push through the CWA Friday, which will translate
to thunderstorm chances most of the day from west to east. Severe
weather chances are not of great concern at the moment, though
moderate instability could produce robust updrafts at times. Wind
shear will be the limiting factor for severe activity, however. Given
the progged position of the LLJ, the better lift for widespread
convection will remain north of Missouri. However, with precipitable
water values approaching 2 inches across the CWA, the better forcing
over northern Missouri may produce localized heavy rainfall in this
region of enhanced lift.

Once the cold front pushes through the area, a brief cooling trend
will commence Saturday before return southerly flow will bring
increasing temperatures through the early week. At that time, broad
mid-level ridging will resume coupled with an extended drying trend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

By the end of the weekend, into next week expect a dry forecast
through the extended forecast. With the mid level ridge solidly in
place for the majority of next week, expect temperatures to remain
above average, in the upper 80s to lower 90s. With the ridge
centered generally over the Mississippi River Valley the lack of any
significant mid level flow will certainly mitigate the chances of
any showers or thunderstorms from advecting into the area, thus the
dry forecast through the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 657 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Isolated showers and perhaps a stray thunderstorm will be possible
again at all terminals by 03z-04z, then will become more probable
after 08z as a complex moves in from the west. A short break in
precipitation is possible between 16z-mid afternoon, then another
round of showers and storms will be possible from 21z onward at all
TAF sites. Ceilings and visibilities will be mainly VFR except in
periods of heavier precipitation, and winds will veer and increase
out of the southwest during the daylight hours Friday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Welsh
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...Laflin




000
FXUS63 KSGF 272354
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
654 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

The persistent boundary near the MO/KS state line continues to
promote shower/thunderstorm development, however the intensity and
coverage of this activity has been decreasing with time. Lift
along the boundary is waning due to a decrease in convergence and
this trend will continue over the next few hours. Still cannot
rule out a few showers/storms along/west of of the MO/KS state
line, but chances are decreasing by the hour.

Overall, the weather will be mainly quiet over the next 24 hours.
A broad, rather weak shortwave will gradually move southeastward
into the region. A slight chance for a few showers/storms has been
maintained over far northwestern portions of the outlook area
Friday to account for the approach of this feature, but the better
chances will be Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures will
remain at or just below average for late August.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

The aforementioned shortwave will slowly shift into the region
Friday night and Saturday. The associated low level boundary will
be a focus for sporadic shower and thunderstorm development. Model
output varies on the low level boundary strength and potential
instability. Rain chances are a low confidence forecast at this
point, but folks should be aware that at least scattered showers
and storms will be around Friday night into Saturday night. The
risk for severe storms is also uncertain given a wide disparity in
expected instability. The NAM is quite high on dewpoints (a known
high bias) for Saturday, resulting in much higher CAPE values.
Most models are more modest, supportive of thunder, but not
necessarily strong/severe activity. Will definitely keep tabs on
this in the coming forecasts.

Upper level ridging will build across the Plains into the Central
U.S. late this weekend into next week. This will result in
southerly flow and a warmer air mass spreading across the region.
Temperatures in the upper 80s to the lower 90s can be expected
each afternoon next week. Lows in the middle 60s to lower 70s are
expected each night.

Mainly dry conditions are expected through next week. There will
be an upper level low that moves under the Ridge and remains
across the southern U.S. through much of the week. This low will
meander across the western Gulf Coast States if this low drifts
farther to the north a few storms would be possible across mainly
southern Missouri but no widespread shower and storms expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 0650 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through Friday with
scattered to broken high clouds. A cold front will approach
western Missouri by late in the day on Friday, but any associated
thunderstorm activity is expected to remain west of the Joplin
aerodrome through the late afternoon. Winds will remain light out
of the southeast tonight and will increase a bit out of the south
on Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan/Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann




000
FXUS63 KSGF 272354
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
654 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

The persistent boundary near the MO/KS state line continues to
promote shower/thunderstorm development, however the intensity and
coverage of this activity has been decreasing with time. Lift
along the boundary is waning due to a decrease in convergence and
this trend will continue over the next few hours. Still cannot
rule out a few showers/storms along/west of of the MO/KS state
line, but chances are decreasing by the hour.

Overall, the weather will be mainly quiet over the next 24 hours.
A broad, rather weak shortwave will gradually move southeastward
into the region. A slight chance for a few showers/storms has been
maintained over far northwestern portions of the outlook area
Friday to account for the approach of this feature, but the better
chances will be Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures will
remain at or just below average for late August.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

The aforementioned shortwave will slowly shift into the region
Friday night and Saturday. The associated low level boundary will
be a focus for sporadic shower and thunderstorm development. Model
output varies on the low level boundary strength and potential
instability. Rain chances are a low confidence forecast at this
point, but folks should be aware that at least scattered showers
and storms will be around Friday night into Saturday night. The
risk for severe storms is also uncertain given a wide disparity in
expected instability. The NAM is quite high on dewpoints (a known
high bias) for Saturday, resulting in much higher CAPE values.
Most models are more modest, supportive of thunder, but not
necessarily strong/severe activity. Will definitely keep tabs on
this in the coming forecasts.

Upper level ridging will build across the Plains into the Central
U.S. late this weekend into next week. This will result in
southerly flow and a warmer air mass spreading across the region.
Temperatures in the upper 80s to the lower 90s can be expected
each afternoon next week. Lows in the middle 60s to lower 70s are
expected each night.

Mainly dry conditions are expected through next week. There will
be an upper level low that moves under the Ridge and remains
across the southern U.S. through much of the week. This low will
meander across the western Gulf Coast States if this low drifts
farther to the north a few storms would be possible across mainly
southern Missouri but no widespread shower and storms expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 0650 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through Friday with
scattered to broken high clouds. A cold front will approach
western Missouri by late in the day on Friday, but any associated
thunderstorm activity is expected to remain west of the Joplin
aerodrome through the late afternoon. Winds will remain light out
of the southeast tonight and will increase a bit out of the south
on Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan/Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann




000
FXUS63 KSGF 272354
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
654 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

The persistent boundary near the MO/KS state line continues to
promote shower/thunderstorm development, however the intensity and
coverage of this activity has been decreasing with time. Lift
along the boundary is waning due to a decrease in convergence and
this trend will continue over the next few hours. Still cannot
rule out a few showers/storms along/west of of the MO/KS state
line, but chances are decreasing by the hour.

Overall, the weather will be mainly quiet over the next 24 hours.
A broad, rather weak shortwave will gradually move southeastward
into the region. A slight chance for a few showers/storms has been
maintained over far northwestern portions of the outlook area
Friday to account for the approach of this feature, but the better
chances will be Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures will
remain at or just below average for late August.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

The aforementioned shortwave will slowly shift into the region
Friday night and Saturday. The associated low level boundary will
be a focus for sporadic shower and thunderstorm development. Model
output varies on the low level boundary strength and potential
instability. Rain chances are a low confidence forecast at this
point, but folks should be aware that at least scattered showers
and storms will be around Friday night into Saturday night. The
risk for severe storms is also uncertain given a wide disparity in
expected instability. The NAM is quite high on dewpoints (a known
high bias) for Saturday, resulting in much higher CAPE values.
Most models are more modest, supportive of thunder, but not
necessarily strong/severe activity. Will definitely keep tabs on
this in the coming forecasts.

Upper level ridging will build across the Plains into the Central
U.S. late this weekend into next week. This will result in
southerly flow and a warmer air mass spreading across the region.
Temperatures in the upper 80s to the lower 90s can be expected
each afternoon next week. Lows in the middle 60s to lower 70s are
expected each night.

Mainly dry conditions are expected through next week. There will
be an upper level low that moves under the Ridge and remains
across the southern U.S. through much of the week. This low will
meander across the western Gulf Coast States if this low drifts
farther to the north a few storms would be possible across mainly
southern Missouri but no widespread shower and storms expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 0650 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through Friday with
scattered to broken high clouds. A cold front will approach
western Missouri by late in the day on Friday, but any associated
thunderstorm activity is expected to remain west of the Joplin
aerodrome through the late afternoon. Winds will remain light out
of the southeast tonight and will increase a bit out of the south
on Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan/Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann



000
FXUS63 KLSX 272342
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
642 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH AT
MIDDAY IN AREAL COVERAGE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS
DIMINISHED IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL JET BACKING.  BELIEVE THAT OUR
AREA WILL STAY DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.  BY LATE TONIGHT
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL
MOVE EAST SUPPLYING ASCENT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THIS ASCENT IN ADDITION TO THE LEVEL JET
WHICH WILL VEER AGAIN AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE UNDERNEATH THE ASCENT THAT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OVER IOWA
AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

A COMPROMISE OF MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT THEY ARE
CLOSE TO CURRENT DEWPOINTS WITH CLOUD COVER ALREADY MOVING OVER THE
AREA.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND
CENTRAL MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL...NORTH AND WEST OF STL ON FRIDAY AS
A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET BRINGS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THIS AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH WESTERN IA ALONG WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT. THE THREAT
FOR CONVECTION MAY SHIFT AS FAR SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STL AREA BY
12Z SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN IA
AND DRAGS THE COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE NAM MODEL SEEMS A LITTLE TOO
SLOW WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT AND MAY BE A LITTLE TOO STRONG. ITS POPS AND QPF MAY ALSO
BE TOO HIGH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. PREFER THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS WHICH HAVE LIGHTER AND MORE
SCATTERED QPF FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL REDUCE THE
POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATAGORY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO AND
SOUTHWEST IL BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SHEAR AXIS.
ANY NOTICEABLE COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST MO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS TRY TO BUILD
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MO FOR THE NEXT
WORK WEEK WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OR A SHEAR AXIS
REMAINING NEAR SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHWEST IL. SURFACE AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY WITH SURFACE
AND 850 MB RIDGING EAST OR SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MO/SOUTHWEST IL NEAR WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOWS/TROUGHING
...SHEAR AXIS.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND SLOWLY INCREASING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
AGAIN TONIGHT IN RIVER VALLEYS, THOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AS DENSE OR
LONG LASTING AS THIS MORNING. MORE HIGH CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO I BACKED OFF
PREVAILING 2 MILES AT KSUS AND KCPS TO TEMPO. WILL SEE HOW THE
NIGHT SHAPES UP...MAY NEED TO BACK OFF FURTHER.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT LAMBERT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. EXPECT THE WIND TO GRADUALLY CONTINUE VEERING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KTS BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 272342
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
642 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH AT
MIDDAY IN AREAL COVERAGE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS
DIMINISHED IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL JET BACKING.  BELIEVE THAT OUR
AREA WILL STAY DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.  BY LATE TONIGHT
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL
MOVE EAST SUPPLYING ASCENT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THIS ASCENT IN ADDITION TO THE LEVEL JET
WHICH WILL VEER AGAIN AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE UNDERNEATH THE ASCENT THAT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OVER IOWA
AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

A COMPROMISE OF MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT THEY ARE
CLOSE TO CURRENT DEWPOINTS WITH CLOUD COVER ALREADY MOVING OVER THE
AREA.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND
CENTRAL MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL...NORTH AND WEST OF STL ON FRIDAY AS
A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET BRINGS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THIS AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH WESTERN IA ALONG WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT. THE THREAT
FOR CONVECTION MAY SHIFT AS FAR SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STL AREA BY
12Z SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN IA
AND DRAGS THE COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE NAM MODEL SEEMS A LITTLE TOO
SLOW WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT AND MAY BE A LITTLE TOO STRONG. ITS POPS AND QPF MAY ALSO
BE TOO HIGH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. PREFER THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS WHICH HAVE LIGHTER AND MORE
SCATTERED QPF FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL REDUCE THE
POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATAGORY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO AND
SOUTHWEST IL BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SHEAR AXIS.
ANY NOTICEABLE COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST MO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS TRY TO BUILD
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MO FOR THE NEXT
WORK WEEK WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OR A SHEAR AXIS
REMAINING NEAR SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHWEST IL. SURFACE AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY WITH SURFACE
AND 850 MB RIDGING EAST OR SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MO/SOUTHWEST IL NEAR WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOWS/TROUGHING
...SHEAR AXIS.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND SLOWLY INCREASING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
AGAIN TONIGHT IN RIVER VALLEYS, THOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AS DENSE OR
LONG LASTING AS THIS MORNING. MORE HIGH CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO I BACKED OFF
PREVAILING 2 MILES AT KSUS AND KCPS TO TEMPO. WILL SEE HOW THE
NIGHT SHAPES UP...MAY NEED TO BACK OFF FURTHER.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT LAMBERT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. EXPECT THE WIND TO GRADUALLY CONTINUE VEERING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KTS BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 272342
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
642 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH AT
MIDDAY IN AREAL COVERAGE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS
DIMINISHED IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL JET BACKING.  BELIEVE THAT OUR
AREA WILL STAY DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.  BY LATE TONIGHT
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL
MOVE EAST SUPPLYING ASCENT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THIS ASCENT IN ADDITION TO THE LEVEL JET
WHICH WILL VEER AGAIN AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE UNDERNEATH THE ASCENT THAT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OVER IOWA
AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

A COMPROMISE OF MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT THEY ARE
CLOSE TO CURRENT DEWPOINTS WITH CLOUD COVER ALREADY MOVING OVER THE
AREA.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND
CENTRAL MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL...NORTH AND WEST OF STL ON FRIDAY AS
A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET BRINGS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THIS AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH WESTERN IA ALONG WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT. THE THREAT
FOR CONVECTION MAY SHIFT AS FAR SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STL AREA BY
12Z SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN IA
AND DRAGS THE COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE NAM MODEL SEEMS A LITTLE TOO
SLOW WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT AND MAY BE A LITTLE TOO STRONG. ITS POPS AND QPF MAY ALSO
BE TOO HIGH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. PREFER THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS WHICH HAVE LIGHTER AND MORE
SCATTERED QPF FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL REDUCE THE
POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATAGORY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO AND
SOUTHWEST IL BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SHEAR AXIS.
ANY NOTICEABLE COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST MO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS TRY TO BUILD
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MO FOR THE NEXT
WORK WEEK WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OR A SHEAR AXIS
REMAINING NEAR SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHWEST IL. SURFACE AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY WITH SURFACE
AND 850 MB RIDGING EAST OR SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MO/SOUTHWEST IL NEAR WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOWS/TROUGHING
...SHEAR AXIS.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND SLOWLY INCREASING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
AGAIN TONIGHT IN RIVER VALLEYS, THOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AS DENSE OR
LONG LASTING AS THIS MORNING. MORE HIGH CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO I BACKED OFF
PREVAILING 2 MILES AT KSUS AND KCPS TO TEMPO. WILL SEE HOW THE
NIGHT SHAPES UP...MAY NEED TO BACK OFF FURTHER.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT LAMBERT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. EXPECT THE WIND TO GRADUALLY CONTINUE VEERING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KTS BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 272342
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
642 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH AT
MIDDAY IN AREAL COVERAGE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS
DIMINISHED IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL JET BACKING.  BELIEVE THAT OUR
AREA WILL STAY DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.  BY LATE TONIGHT
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL
MOVE EAST SUPPLYING ASCENT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THIS ASCENT IN ADDITION TO THE LEVEL JET
WHICH WILL VEER AGAIN AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE UNDERNEATH THE ASCENT THAT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OVER IOWA
AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

A COMPROMISE OF MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT THEY ARE
CLOSE TO CURRENT DEWPOINTS WITH CLOUD COVER ALREADY MOVING OVER THE
AREA.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND
CENTRAL MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL...NORTH AND WEST OF STL ON FRIDAY AS
A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET BRINGS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THIS AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH WESTERN IA ALONG WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT. THE THREAT
FOR CONVECTION MAY SHIFT AS FAR SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STL AREA BY
12Z SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN IA
AND DRAGS THE COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE NAM MODEL SEEMS A LITTLE TOO
SLOW WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT AND MAY BE A LITTLE TOO STRONG. ITS POPS AND QPF MAY ALSO
BE TOO HIGH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. PREFER THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS WHICH HAVE LIGHTER AND MORE
SCATTERED QPF FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL REDUCE THE
POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATAGORY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO AND
SOUTHWEST IL BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SHEAR AXIS.
ANY NOTICEABLE COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST MO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS TRY TO BUILD
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MO FOR THE NEXT
WORK WEEK WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OR A SHEAR AXIS
REMAINING NEAR SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHWEST IL. SURFACE AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY WITH SURFACE
AND 850 MB RIDGING EAST OR SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MO/SOUTHWEST IL NEAR WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOWS/TROUGHING
...SHEAR AXIS.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND SLOWLY INCREASING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
AGAIN TONIGHT IN RIVER VALLEYS, THOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AS DENSE OR
LONG LASTING AS THIS MORNING. MORE HIGH CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO I BACKED OFF
PREVAILING 2 MILES AT KSUS AND KCPS TO TEMPO. WILL SEE HOW THE
NIGHT SHAPES UP...MAY NEED TO BACK OFF FURTHER.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT LAMBERT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. EXPECT THE WIND TO GRADUALLY CONTINUE VEERING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KTS BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 272342
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
642 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH AT
MIDDAY IN AREAL COVERAGE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS
DIMINISHED IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL JET BACKING.  BELIEVE THAT OUR
AREA WILL STAY DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.  BY LATE TONIGHT
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL
MOVE EAST SUPPLYING ASCENT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THIS ASCENT IN ADDITION TO THE LEVEL JET
WHICH WILL VEER AGAIN AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE UNDERNEATH THE ASCENT THAT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OVER IOWA
AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

A COMPROMISE OF MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT THEY ARE
CLOSE TO CURRENT DEWPOINTS WITH CLOUD COVER ALREADY MOVING OVER THE
AREA.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND
CENTRAL MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL...NORTH AND WEST OF STL ON FRIDAY AS
A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET BRINGS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THIS AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH WESTERN IA ALONG WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT. THE THREAT
FOR CONVECTION MAY SHIFT AS FAR SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STL AREA BY
12Z SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN IA
AND DRAGS THE COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE NAM MODEL SEEMS A LITTLE TOO
SLOW WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT AND MAY BE A LITTLE TOO STRONG. ITS POPS AND QPF MAY ALSO
BE TOO HIGH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. PREFER THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS WHICH HAVE LIGHTER AND MORE
SCATTERED QPF FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL REDUCE THE
POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATAGORY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO AND
SOUTHWEST IL BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SHEAR AXIS.
ANY NOTICEABLE COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST MO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS TRY TO BUILD
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MO FOR THE NEXT
WORK WEEK WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OR A SHEAR AXIS
REMAINING NEAR SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHWEST IL. SURFACE AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY WITH SURFACE
AND 850 MB RIDGING EAST OR SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MO/SOUTHWEST IL NEAR WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOWS/TROUGHING
...SHEAR AXIS.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND SLOWLY INCREASING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
AGAIN TONIGHT IN RIVER VALLEYS, THOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AS DENSE OR
LONG LASTING AS THIS MORNING. MORE HIGH CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO I BACKED OFF
PREVAILING 2 MILES AT KSUS AND KCPS TO TEMPO. WILL SEE HOW THE
NIGHT SHAPES UP...MAY NEED TO BACK OFF FURTHER.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT LAMBERT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. EXPECT THE WIND TO GRADUALLY CONTINUE VEERING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KTS BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KEAX 272038
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
338 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Convection from strong isentropic ascent will continue to dissipate
through the afternoon in advance of slowly low center located over
south central Nebraska. Cloud cover and lingering convection has
been a bit slower to dissipate so have backed off afternoon high
temperatures. Conditions will remain dry through the afternoon over
a majority of the CWA as isentropic forcing tapers off. A lingering
isolated thunderstorm or two will be possible for areas within
northern Missouri, though this too, will eventually begin to break
up by the early evening.

A developing shortwave feature cresting the mid-level ridge to the
west will be the primary factor affecting much of Friday. At the
surface, a cold front will sweep through the region by Friday
evening. Convection is expected ahead of the frontal boundary which
will begin impacting northwest Missouri overnight. The system as a
whole will slowly push through the CWA Friday, which will translate
to thunderstorm chances most of the day from west to east. Severe
weather chances are not of great concern at the moment, though
moderate instability could produce robust updrafts at times. Wind
shear will be the limiting factor for severe activity, however.
Given the progged position of the LLJ, the better lift for
widespread convection will remain north of Missouri. However, with
preciptable water values approaching 2 inches across the CWA, the
better forcing over northern Missouri may produce localized heavy
rainfall in this region of enhanced lift.

Once the cold front pushes through the area, a brief
cooling trend will commence Saturday before return southerly flow
will bring increasing temperatures through the early week. At that
time, broad mid-level ridging will resume coupled with an extended
drying trend.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

By the end of the weekend, into next week expect a dry forecast
through the extended forecast. With the mid level ridge solidly in
place for the majority of next week, expect temperatures to remain
above average, in the upper 80s to lower 90s. With the ridge
centered generally over the Mississippi River Valley the lack of any
significant mid level flow will certainly mitigate the chances of
any showers or thunderstorms from advecting into the area, thus the
dry forecast through the end of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Convection should be out of the area by 18z-19z, although it might
hold on until 19-20z considering the light upstream echoes to the
west. Otherwise, timing of the precip for tomorrow is tricky. Since
the better precip looks to take place later in the day, went ahead
and backed off on the timing a little bit. So, with the better
chances being in the 18-00z time frame tomorrow evening went ahead
and shaded the timing more toward that time frame. Added the 14z
grouping for winds picking up during the day.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Welsh
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton



000
FXUS63 KEAX 272038
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
338 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Convection from strong isentropic ascent will continue to dissipate
through the afternoon in advance of slowly low center located over
south central Nebraska. Cloud cover and lingering convection has
been a bit slower to dissipate so have backed off afternoon high
temperatures. Conditions will remain dry through the afternoon over
a majority of the CWA as isentropic forcing tapers off. A lingering
isolated thunderstorm or two will be possible for areas within
northern Missouri, though this too, will eventually begin to break
up by the early evening.

A developing shortwave feature cresting the mid-level ridge to the
west will be the primary factor affecting much of Friday. At the
surface, a cold front will sweep through the region by Friday
evening. Convection is expected ahead of the frontal boundary which
will begin impacting northwest Missouri overnight. The system as a
whole will slowly push through the CWA Friday, which will translate
to thunderstorm chances most of the day from west to east. Severe
weather chances are not of great concern at the moment, though
moderate instability could produce robust updrafts at times. Wind
shear will be the limiting factor for severe activity, however.
Given the progged position of the LLJ, the better lift for
widespread convection will remain north of Missouri. However, with
preciptable water values approaching 2 inches across the CWA, the
better forcing over northern Missouri may produce localized heavy
rainfall in this region of enhanced lift.

Once the cold front pushes through the area, a brief
cooling trend will commence Saturday before return southerly flow
will bring increasing temperatures through the early week. At that
time, broad mid-level ridging will resume coupled with an extended
drying trend.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

By the end of the weekend, into next week expect a dry forecast
through the extended forecast. With the mid level ridge solidly in
place for the majority of next week, expect temperatures to remain
above average, in the upper 80s to lower 90s. With the ridge
centered generally over the Mississippi River Valley the lack of any
significant mid level flow will certainly mitigate the chances of
any showers or thunderstorms from advecting into the area, thus the
dry forecast through the end of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Convection should be out of the area by 18z-19z, although it might
hold on until 19-20z considering the light upstream echoes to the
west. Otherwise, timing of the precip for tomorrow is tricky. Since
the better precip looks to take place later in the day, went ahead
and backed off on the timing a little bit. So, with the better
chances being in the 18-00z time frame tomorrow evening went ahead
and shaded the timing more toward that time frame. Added the 14z
grouping for winds picking up during the day.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Welsh
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton



000
FXUS63 KEAX 272038
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
338 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Convection from strong isentropic ascent will continue to dissipate
through the afternoon in advance of slowly low center located over
south central Nebraska. Cloud cover and lingering convection has
been a bit slower to dissipate so have backed off afternoon high
temperatures. Conditions will remain dry through the afternoon over
a majority of the CWA as isentropic forcing tapers off. A lingering
isolated thunderstorm or two will be possible for areas within
northern Missouri, though this too, will eventually begin to break
up by the early evening.

A developing shortwave feature cresting the mid-level ridge to the
west will be the primary factor affecting much of Friday. At the
surface, a cold front will sweep through the region by Friday
evening. Convection is expected ahead of the frontal boundary which
will begin impacting northwest Missouri overnight. The system as a
whole will slowly push through the CWA Friday, which will translate
to thunderstorm chances most of the day from west to east. Severe
weather chances are not of great concern at the moment, though
moderate instability could produce robust updrafts at times. Wind
shear will be the limiting factor for severe activity, however.
Given the progged position of the LLJ, the better lift for
widespread convection will remain north of Missouri. However, with
preciptable water values approaching 2 inches across the CWA, the
better forcing over northern Missouri may produce localized heavy
rainfall in this region of enhanced lift.

Once the cold front pushes through the area, a brief
cooling trend will commence Saturday before return southerly flow
will bring increasing temperatures through the early week. At that
time, broad mid-level ridging will resume coupled with an extended
drying trend.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

By the end of the weekend, into next week expect a dry forecast
through the extended forecast. With the mid level ridge solidly in
place for the majority of next week, expect temperatures to remain
above average, in the upper 80s to lower 90s. With the ridge
centered generally over the Mississippi River Valley the lack of any
significant mid level flow will certainly mitigate the chances of
any showers or thunderstorms from advecting into the area, thus the
dry forecast through the end of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Convection should be out of the area by 18z-19z, although it might
hold on until 19-20z considering the light upstream echoes to the
west. Otherwise, timing of the precip for tomorrow is tricky. Since
the better precip looks to take place later in the day, went ahead
and backed off on the timing a little bit. So, with the better
chances being in the 18-00z time frame tomorrow evening went ahead
and shaded the timing more toward that time frame. Added the 14z
grouping for winds picking up during the day.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Welsh
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton



000
FXUS63 KEAX 272038
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
338 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Convection from strong isentropic ascent will continue to dissipate
through the afternoon in advance of slowly low center located over
south central Nebraska. Cloud cover and lingering convection has
been a bit slower to dissipate so have backed off afternoon high
temperatures. Conditions will remain dry through the afternoon over
a majority of the CWA as isentropic forcing tapers off. A lingering
isolated thunderstorm or two will be possible for areas within
northern Missouri, though this too, will eventually begin to break
up by the early evening.

A developing shortwave feature cresting the mid-level ridge to the
west will be the primary factor affecting much of Friday. At the
surface, a cold front will sweep through the region by Friday
evening. Convection is expected ahead of the frontal boundary which
will begin impacting northwest Missouri overnight. The system as a
whole will slowly push through the CWA Friday, which will translate
to thunderstorm chances most of the day from west to east. Severe
weather chances are not of great concern at the moment, though
moderate instability could produce robust updrafts at times. Wind
shear will be the limiting factor for severe activity, however.
Given the progged position of the LLJ, the better lift for
widespread convection will remain north of Missouri. However, with
preciptable water values approaching 2 inches across the CWA, the
better forcing over northern Missouri may produce localized heavy
rainfall in this region of enhanced lift.

Once the cold front pushes through the area, a brief
cooling trend will commence Saturday before return southerly flow
will bring increasing temperatures through the early week. At that
time, broad mid-level ridging will resume coupled with an extended
drying trend.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

By the end of the weekend, into next week expect a dry forecast
through the extended forecast. With the mid level ridge solidly in
place for the majority of next week, expect temperatures to remain
above average, in the upper 80s to lower 90s. With the ridge
centered generally over the Mississippi River Valley the lack of any
significant mid level flow will certainly mitigate the chances of
any showers or thunderstorms from advecting into the area, thus the
dry forecast through the end of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Convection should be out of the area by 18z-19z, although it might
hold on until 19-20z considering the light upstream echoes to the
west. Otherwise, timing of the precip for tomorrow is tricky. Since
the better precip looks to take place later in the day, went ahead
and backed off on the timing a little bit. So, with the better
chances being in the 18-00z time frame tomorrow evening went ahead
and shaded the timing more toward that time frame. Added the 14z
grouping for winds picking up during the day.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Welsh
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton



000
FXUS63 KEAX 272038
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
338 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Convection from strong isentropic ascent will continue to dissipate
through the afternoon in advance of slowly low center located over
south central Nebraska. Cloud cover and lingering convection has
been a bit slower to dissipate so have backed off afternoon high
temperatures. Conditions will remain dry through the afternoon over
a majority of the CWA as isentropic forcing tapers off. A lingering
isolated thunderstorm or two will be possible for areas within
northern Missouri, though this too, will eventually begin to break
up by the early evening.

A developing shortwave feature cresting the mid-level ridge to the
west will be the primary factor affecting much of Friday. At the
surface, a cold front will sweep through the region by Friday
evening. Convection is expected ahead of the frontal boundary which
will begin impacting northwest Missouri overnight. The system as a
whole will slowly push through the CWA Friday, which will translate
to thunderstorm chances most of the day from west to east. Severe
weather chances are not of great concern at the moment, though
moderate instability could produce robust updrafts at times. Wind
shear will be the limiting factor for severe activity, however.
Given the progged position of the LLJ, the better lift for
widespread convection will remain north of Missouri. However, with
preciptable water values approaching 2 inches across the CWA, the
better forcing over northern Missouri may produce localized heavy
rainfall in this region of enhanced lift.

Once the cold front pushes through the area, a brief
cooling trend will commence Saturday before return southerly flow
will bring increasing temperatures through the early week. At that
time, broad mid-level ridging will resume coupled with an extended
drying trend.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

By the end of the weekend, into next week expect a dry forecast
through the extended forecast. With the mid level ridge solidly in
place for the majority of next week, expect temperatures to remain
above average, in the upper 80s to lower 90s. With the ridge
centered generally over the Mississippi River Valley the lack of any
significant mid level flow will certainly mitigate the chances of
any showers or thunderstorms from advecting into the area, thus the
dry forecast through the end of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Convection should be out of the area by 18z-19z, although it might
hold on until 19-20z considering the light upstream echoes to the
west. Otherwise, timing of the precip for tomorrow is tricky. Since
the better precip looks to take place later in the day, went ahead
and backed off on the timing a little bit. So, with the better
chances being in the 18-00z time frame tomorrow evening went ahead
and shaded the timing more toward that time frame. Added the 14z
grouping for winds picking up during the day.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Welsh
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton



000
FXUS63 KLSX 272030
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
330 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH AT
MIDDAY IN AREAL COVERAGE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS
DIMINISHED IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL JET BACKING.  BELIEVE THAT OUR
AREA WILL STAY DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.  BY LATE TONIGHT
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL
MOVE EAST SUPPLYING ASCENT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THIS ASCENT IN ADDITION TO THE LEVEL JET
WHICH WILL VEER AGAIN AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE UNDERNEATH THE ASCENT THAT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OVER IOWA
AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

A COMPROMISE OF MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT THEY ARE
CLOSE TO CURRENT DEWPOINTS WITH CLOUD COVER ALREADY MOVING OVER THE
AREA.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND
CENTRAL MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL...NORTH AND WEST OF STL ON FRIDAY AS
A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET BRINGS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THIS AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH WESTERN IA ALONG WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT. THE THREAT
FOR CONVECTION MAY SHIFT AS FAR SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STL AREA BY
12Z SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN IA
AND DRAGS THE COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE NAM MODEL SEEMS A LITTLE TOO
SLOW WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT AND MAY BE A LITTLE TOO STRONG. ITS POPS AND QPF MAY ALSO
BE TOO HIGH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. PREFER THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS WHICH HAVE LIGHTER AND MORE
SCATTERED QPF FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL REDUCE THE
POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATAGORY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO AND
SOUTHWEST IL BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SHEAR AXIS.
ANY NOTICEABLE COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST MO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS TRY TO BUILD
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MO FOR THE NEXT
WORK WEEK WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OR A SHEAR AXIS
REMAINING NEAR SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHWEST IL. SURFACE AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY WITH SURFACE
AND 850 MB RIDGING EAST OR SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MO/SOUTHWEST IL NEAR WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOWS/TROUGHING
...SHEAR AXIS.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO
FEED DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN LOW LYING
AREA LATE TONIGHT INCLUDING KSUS AND KCPS WHERE THERE WILL BE IFR
FOG FORMATION.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: EXPECT DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

BRITT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 272030
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
330 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH AT
MIDDAY IN AREAL COVERAGE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS
DIMINISHED IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL JET BACKING.  BELIEVE THAT OUR
AREA WILL STAY DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.  BY LATE TONIGHT
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL
MOVE EAST SUPPLYING ASCENT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THIS ASCENT IN ADDITION TO THE LEVEL JET
WHICH WILL VEER AGAIN AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE UNDERNEATH THE ASCENT THAT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OVER IOWA
AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

A COMPROMISE OF MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT THEY ARE
CLOSE TO CURRENT DEWPOINTS WITH CLOUD COVER ALREADY MOVING OVER THE
AREA.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND
CENTRAL MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL...NORTH AND WEST OF STL ON FRIDAY AS
A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET BRINGS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THIS AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH WESTERN IA ALONG WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT. THE THREAT
FOR CONVECTION MAY SHIFT AS FAR SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STL AREA BY
12Z SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN IA
AND DRAGS THE COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE NAM MODEL SEEMS A LITTLE TOO
SLOW WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT AND MAY BE A LITTLE TOO STRONG. ITS POPS AND QPF MAY ALSO
BE TOO HIGH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. PREFER THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS WHICH HAVE LIGHTER AND MORE
SCATTERED QPF FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL REDUCE THE
POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATAGORY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO AND
SOUTHWEST IL BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SHEAR AXIS.
ANY NOTICEABLE COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST MO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS TRY TO BUILD
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MO FOR THE NEXT
WORK WEEK WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OR A SHEAR AXIS
REMAINING NEAR SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHWEST IL. SURFACE AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY WITH SURFACE
AND 850 MB RIDGING EAST OR SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MO/SOUTHWEST IL NEAR WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOWS/TROUGHING
...SHEAR AXIS.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO
FEED DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN LOW LYING
AREA LATE TONIGHT INCLUDING KSUS AND KCPS WHERE THERE WILL BE IFR
FOG FORMATION.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: EXPECT DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

BRITT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 271952
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
252 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH AT
MIDDAY IN AREAL COVERAGE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS
DIMINISHED IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL JET BACKING.  BELIEVE THAT OUR
AREA WILL STAY DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.  BY LATE TONIGHT
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL
MOVE EAST SUPPLYING ASCENT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THIS ASCENT IN ADDITION TO THE LEVEL JET
WHICH WILL VEER AGAIN AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE UNDERNEATH THE ASCENT THAT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OVER IOWA
AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

A COMPROMISE OF MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT THEY ARE
CLOSE TO CURRENT DEWPOINTS WITH CLOUD COVER ALREADY MOVING OVER THE
AREA.

BRITT


.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

TONIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME SO THINK IT WILL
BE DRY WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

WITH COLD FRONT, UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND DECENT LOW LEVEL JET
APPROACHING THE REGION ON FRIDAY, WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
THE INCREASE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH REGION, THOUGH DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE AS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

FRONT TO WEAKEN AS IT EXITS REGION, WASHING OUT TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
ALSO, SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND FRONT IS RATHER WEAK WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO
IT LEAVES OUR AREA IN LIMBO, WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY A BIT WARMER
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. ALSO, WITH WEAK
FLOW OVERHEAD AND WEAK SHORTWAVES SLIDING THROUGH REGION, COULD SEE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY UNTIL EXTENDED MODELS GET A BETTER
GRASP ON THE PATTERN THAT WILL EVOLVE OVER REGION. ANOTHER FLY IN
OINTMENT IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH "ERIKA" AS IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHEASTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ITS AFFECTS ON THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION.

BYRD

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO
FEED DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN LOW LYING
AREA LATE TONIGHT INCLUDING KSUS AND KCPS WHERE THERE WILL BE IFR
FOG FORMATION.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: EXPECT DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

BRITT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 271952
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
252 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH AT
MIDDAY IN AREAL COVERAGE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS
DIMINISHED IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL JET BACKING.  BELIEVE THAT OUR
AREA WILL STAY DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.  BY LATE TONIGHT
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL
MOVE EAST SUPPLYING ASCENT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THIS ASCENT IN ADDITION TO THE LEVEL JET
WHICH WILL VEER AGAIN AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE UNDERNEATH THE ASCENT THAT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OVER IOWA
AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

A COMPROMISE OF MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT THEY ARE
CLOSE TO CURRENT DEWPOINTS WITH CLOUD COVER ALREADY MOVING OVER THE
AREA.

BRITT


.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

TONIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME SO THINK IT WILL
BE DRY WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

WITH COLD FRONT, UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND DECENT LOW LEVEL JET
APPROACHING THE REGION ON FRIDAY, WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
THE INCREASE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH REGION, THOUGH DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE AS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

FRONT TO WEAKEN AS IT EXITS REGION, WASHING OUT TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
ALSO, SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND FRONT IS RATHER WEAK WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO
IT LEAVES OUR AREA IN LIMBO, WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY A BIT WARMER
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. ALSO, WITH WEAK
FLOW OVERHEAD AND WEAK SHORTWAVES SLIDING THROUGH REGION, COULD SEE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY UNTIL EXTENDED MODELS GET A BETTER
GRASP ON THE PATTERN THAT WILL EVOLVE OVER REGION. ANOTHER FLY IN
OINTMENT IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH "ERIKA" AS IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHEASTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ITS AFFECTS ON THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION.

BYRD

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO
FEED DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN LOW LYING
AREA LATE TONIGHT INCLUDING KSUS AND KCPS WHERE THERE WILL BE IFR
FOG FORMATION.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: EXPECT DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

BRITT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 271952
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
252 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH AT
MIDDAY IN AREAL COVERAGE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS
DIMINISHED IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL JET BACKING.  BELIEVE THAT OUR
AREA WILL STAY DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.  BY LATE TONIGHT
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL
MOVE EAST SUPPLYING ASCENT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THIS ASCENT IN ADDITION TO THE LEVEL JET
WHICH WILL VEER AGAIN AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE UNDERNEATH THE ASCENT THAT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OVER IOWA
AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

A COMPROMISE OF MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT THEY ARE
CLOSE TO CURRENT DEWPOINTS WITH CLOUD COVER ALREADY MOVING OVER THE
AREA.

BRITT


.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

TONIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME SO THINK IT WILL
BE DRY WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

WITH COLD FRONT, UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND DECENT LOW LEVEL JET
APPROACHING THE REGION ON FRIDAY, WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
THE INCREASE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH REGION, THOUGH DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE AS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

FRONT TO WEAKEN AS IT EXITS REGION, WASHING OUT TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
ALSO, SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND FRONT IS RATHER WEAK WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO
IT LEAVES OUR AREA IN LIMBO, WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY A BIT WARMER
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. ALSO, WITH WEAK
FLOW OVERHEAD AND WEAK SHORTWAVES SLIDING THROUGH REGION, COULD SEE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY UNTIL EXTENDED MODELS GET A BETTER
GRASP ON THE PATTERN THAT WILL EVOLVE OVER REGION. ANOTHER FLY IN
OINTMENT IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH "ERIKA" AS IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHEASTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ITS AFFECTS ON THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION.

BYRD

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO
FEED DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN LOW LYING
AREA LATE TONIGHT INCLUDING KSUS AND KCPS WHERE THERE WILL BE IFR
FOG FORMATION.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: EXPECT DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

BRITT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KSGF 271934
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
234 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

The persistent boundary near the MO/KS state line continues to
promote shower/thunderstorm development, however the intensity and
coverage of this activity has been decreasing with time. Lift
along the boundary is waning due to a decrease in convergence and
this trend will continue over the next few hours. Still cannot
rule out a few showers/storms along/west of of the MO/KS state
line, but chances are decreasing by the hour.

Overall, the weather will be mainly quiet over the next 24 hours.
A broad, rather weak shortwave will gradually move southeastward
into the region. A slight chance for a few showers/storms has been
maintained over far northwestern portions of the outlook area
Friday to account for the approach of this feature, but the better
chances will be Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures will
remain at or just below average for late August.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

The aforementioned shortwave will slowly shift into the region
Friday night and Saturday. The associated low level boundary will
be a focus for sporadic shower and thunderstorm development. Model
output varies on the low level boundary strength and potential
instability. Rain chances are a low confidence forecast at this
point, but folks should be aware that at least scattered showers
and storms will be around Friday night into Saturday night. The
risk for severe storms is also uncertain given a wide disparity in
expected instability. The NAM is quite high on dewpoints (a known
high bias) for Saturday, resulting in much higher CAPE values.
Most models are more modest, supportive of thunder, but not
necessarily strong/severe activity. Will definitely keep tabs on
this in the coming forecasts.

Upper level ridging will build across the Plains into the Central
U.S. late this weekend into next week. This will result in
southerly flow and a warmer air mass spreading across the region.
Temperatures in the upper 80s to the lower 90s can be expected
each afternoon next week. Lows in the middle 60s to lower 70s are
expected each night.

Mainly dry conditions are expected through next week. There will
be an upper level low that moves under the Ridge and remains
across the southern U.S. through much of the week. This low will
meander across the western Gulf Coast States if this low drifts
farther to the north a few storms would be possible across mainly
southern Missouri but no widespread shower and storms expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

See the update section above for short term shower/storm forecast
details. Overall, expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours.
High clouds will persist across the region this afternoon,
gradually thinning out at SGF/BBG. Southeast winds will persist
through the forecast cycle, with locally higher wind speeds/gusts
at SGF due to the typical funneling effect observed with southeast
winds. Best rain chances will continue to loiter just to the west
of the area through midday Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan/Wise
AVIATION...Gagan



000
FXUS63 KSGF 271934
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
234 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

The persistent boundary near the MO/KS state line continues to
promote shower/thunderstorm development, however the intensity and
coverage of this activity has been decreasing with time. Lift
along the boundary is waning due to a decrease in convergence and
this trend will continue over the next few hours. Still cannot
rule out a few showers/storms along/west of of the MO/KS state
line, but chances are decreasing by the hour.

Overall, the weather will be mainly quiet over the next 24 hours.
A broad, rather weak shortwave will gradually move southeastward
into the region. A slight chance for a few showers/storms has been
maintained over far northwestern portions of the outlook area
Friday to account for the approach of this feature, but the better
chances will be Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures will
remain at or just below average for late August.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

The aforementioned shortwave will slowly shift into the region
Friday night and Saturday. The associated low level boundary will
be a focus for sporadic shower and thunderstorm development. Model
output varies on the low level boundary strength and potential
instability. Rain chances are a low confidence forecast at this
point, but folks should be aware that at least scattered showers
and storms will be around Friday night into Saturday night. The
risk for severe storms is also uncertain given a wide disparity in
expected instability. The NAM is quite high on dewpoints (a known
high bias) for Saturday, resulting in much higher CAPE values.
Most models are more modest, supportive of thunder, but not
necessarily strong/severe activity. Will definitely keep tabs on
this in the coming forecasts.

Upper level ridging will build across the Plains into the Central
U.S. late this weekend into next week. This will result in
southerly flow and a warmer air mass spreading across the region.
Temperatures in the upper 80s to the lower 90s can be expected
each afternoon next week. Lows in the middle 60s to lower 70s are
expected each night.

Mainly dry conditions are expected through next week. There will
be an upper level low that moves under the Ridge and remains
across the southern U.S. through much of the week. This low will
meander across the western Gulf Coast States if this low drifts
farther to the north a few storms would be possible across mainly
southern Missouri but no widespread shower and storms expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

See the update section above for short term shower/storm forecast
details. Overall, expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours.
High clouds will persist across the region this afternoon,
gradually thinning out at SGF/BBG. Southeast winds will persist
through the forecast cycle, with locally higher wind speeds/gusts
at SGF due to the typical funneling effect observed with southeast
winds. Best rain chances will continue to loiter just to the west
of the area through midday Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan/Wise
AVIATION...Gagan




000
FXUS63 KSGF 271934
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
234 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

The persistent boundary near the MO/KS state line continues to
promote shower/thunderstorm development, however the intensity and
coverage of this activity has been decreasing with time. Lift
along the boundary is waning due to a decrease in convergence and
this trend will continue over the next few hours. Still cannot
rule out a few showers/storms along/west of of the MO/KS state
line, but chances are decreasing by the hour.

Overall, the weather will be mainly quiet over the next 24 hours.
A broad, rather weak shortwave will gradually move southeastward
into the region. A slight chance for a few showers/storms has been
maintained over far northwestern portions of the outlook area
Friday to account for the approach of this feature, but the better
chances will be Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures will
remain at or just below average for late August.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

The aforementioned shortwave will slowly shift into the region
Friday night and Saturday. The associated low level boundary will
be a focus for sporadic shower and thunderstorm development. Model
output varies on the low level boundary strength and potential
instability. Rain chances are a low confidence forecast at this
point, but folks should be aware that at least scattered showers
and storms will be around Friday night into Saturday night. The
risk for severe storms is also uncertain given a wide disparity in
expected instability. The NAM is quite high on dewpoints (a known
high bias) for Saturday, resulting in much higher CAPE values.
Most models are more modest, supportive of thunder, but not
necessarily strong/severe activity. Will definitely keep tabs on
this in the coming forecasts.

Upper level ridging will build across the Plains into the Central
U.S. late this weekend into next week. This will result in
southerly flow and a warmer air mass spreading across the region.
Temperatures in the upper 80s to the lower 90s can be expected
each afternoon next week. Lows in the middle 60s to lower 70s are
expected each night.

Mainly dry conditions are expected through next week. There will
be an upper level low that moves under the Ridge and remains
across the southern U.S. through much of the week. This low will
meander across the western Gulf Coast States if this low drifts
farther to the north a few storms would be possible across mainly
southern Missouri but no widespread shower and storms expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

See the update section above for short term shower/storm forecast
details. Overall, expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours.
High clouds will persist across the region this afternoon,
gradually thinning out at SGF/BBG. Southeast winds will persist
through the forecast cycle, with locally higher wind speeds/gusts
at SGF due to the typical funneling effect observed with southeast
winds. Best rain chances will continue to loiter just to the west
of the area through midday Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan/Wise
AVIATION...Gagan



000
FXUS63 KSGF 271934
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
234 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

The persistent boundary near the MO/KS state line continues to
promote shower/thunderstorm development, however the intensity and
coverage of this activity has been decreasing with time. Lift
along the boundary is waning due to a decrease in convergence and
this trend will continue over the next few hours. Still cannot
rule out a few showers/storms along/west of of the MO/KS state
line, but chances are decreasing by the hour.

Overall, the weather will be mainly quiet over the next 24 hours.
A broad, rather weak shortwave will gradually move southeastward
into the region. A slight chance for a few showers/storms has been
maintained over far northwestern portions of the outlook area
Friday to account for the approach of this feature, but the better
chances will be Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures will
remain at or just below average for late August.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

The aforementioned shortwave will slowly shift into the region
Friday night and Saturday. The associated low level boundary will
be a focus for sporadic shower and thunderstorm development. Model
output varies on the low level boundary strength and potential
instability. Rain chances are a low confidence forecast at this
point, but folks should be aware that at least scattered showers
and storms will be around Friday night into Saturday night. The
risk for severe storms is also uncertain given a wide disparity in
expected instability. The NAM is quite high on dewpoints (a known
high bias) for Saturday, resulting in much higher CAPE values.
Most models are more modest, supportive of thunder, but not
necessarily strong/severe activity. Will definitely keep tabs on
this in the coming forecasts.

Upper level ridging will build across the Plains into the Central
U.S. late this weekend into next week. This will result in
southerly flow and a warmer air mass spreading across the region.
Temperatures in the upper 80s to the lower 90s can be expected
each afternoon next week. Lows in the middle 60s to lower 70s are
expected each night.

Mainly dry conditions are expected through next week. There will
be an upper level low that moves under the Ridge and remains
across the southern U.S. through much of the week. This low will
meander across the western Gulf Coast States if this low drifts
farther to the north a few storms would be possible across mainly
southern Missouri but no widespread shower and storms expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

See the update section above for short term shower/storm forecast
details. Overall, expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours.
High clouds will persist across the region this afternoon,
gradually thinning out at SGF/BBG. Southeast winds will persist
through the forecast cycle, with locally higher wind speeds/gusts
at SGF due to the typical funneling effect observed with southeast
winds. Best rain chances will continue to loiter just to the west
of the area through midday Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan/Wise
AVIATION...Gagan



000
FXUS63 KSGF 271934
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
234 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

The persistent boundary near the MO/KS state line continues to
promote shower/thunderstorm development, however the intensity and
coverage of this activity has been decreasing with time. Lift
along the boundary is waning due to a decrease in convergence and
this trend will continue over the next few hours. Still cannot
rule out a few showers/storms along/west of of the MO/KS state
line, but chances are decreasing by the hour.

Overall, the weather will be mainly quiet over the next 24 hours.
A broad, rather weak shortwave will gradually move southeastward
into the region. A slight chance for a few showers/storms has been
maintained over far northwestern portions of the outlook area
Friday to account for the approach of this feature, but the better
chances will be Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures will
remain at or just below average for late August.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

The aforementioned shortwave will slowly shift into the region
Friday night and Saturday. The associated low level boundary will
be a focus for sporadic shower and thunderstorm development. Model
output varies on the low level boundary strength and potential
instability. Rain chances are a low confidence forecast at this
point, but folks should be aware that at least scattered showers
and storms will be around Friday night into Saturday night. The
risk for severe storms is also uncertain given a wide disparity in
expected instability. The NAM is quite high on dewpoints (a known
high bias) for Saturday, resulting in much higher CAPE values.
Most models are more modest, supportive of thunder, but not
necessarily strong/severe activity. Will definitely keep tabs on
this in the coming forecasts.

Upper level ridging will build across the Plains into the Central
U.S. late this weekend into next week. This will result in
southerly flow and a warmer air mass spreading across the region.
Temperatures in the upper 80s to the lower 90s can be expected
each afternoon next week. Lows in the middle 60s to lower 70s are
expected each night.

Mainly dry conditions are expected through next week. There will
be an upper level low that moves under the Ridge and remains
across the southern U.S. through much of the week. This low will
meander across the western Gulf Coast States if this low drifts
farther to the north a few storms would be possible across mainly
southern Missouri but no widespread shower and storms expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

See the update section above for short term shower/storm forecast
details. Overall, expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours.
High clouds will persist across the region this afternoon,
gradually thinning out at SGF/BBG. Southeast winds will persist
through the forecast cycle, with locally higher wind speeds/gusts
at SGF due to the typical funneling effect observed with southeast
winds. Best rain chances will continue to loiter just to the west
of the area through midday Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan/Wise
AVIATION...Gagan



000
FXUS63 KSGF 271934
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
234 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

The persistent boundary near the MO/KS state line continues to
promote shower/thunderstorm development, however the intensity and
coverage of this activity has been decreasing with time. Lift
along the boundary is waning due to a decrease in convergence and
this trend will continue over the next few hours. Still cannot
rule out a few showers/storms along/west of of the MO/KS state
line, but chances are decreasing by the hour.

Overall, the weather will be mainly quiet over the next 24 hours.
A broad, rather weak shortwave will gradually move southeastward
into the region. A slight chance for a few showers/storms has been
maintained over far northwestern portions of the outlook area
Friday to account for the approach of this feature, but the better
chances will be Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures will
remain at or just below average for late August.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

The aforementioned shortwave will slowly shift into the region
Friday night and Saturday. The associated low level boundary will
be a focus for sporadic shower and thunderstorm development. Model
output varies on the low level boundary strength and potential
instability. Rain chances are a low confidence forecast at this
point, but folks should be aware that at least scattered showers
and storms will be around Friday night into Saturday night. The
risk for severe storms is also uncertain given a wide disparity in
expected instability. The NAM is quite high on dewpoints (a known
high bias) for Saturday, resulting in much higher CAPE values.
Most models are more modest, supportive of thunder, but not
necessarily strong/severe activity. Will definitely keep tabs on
this in the coming forecasts.

Upper level ridging will build across the Plains into the Central
U.S. late this weekend into next week. This will result in
southerly flow and a warmer air mass spreading across the region.
Temperatures in the upper 80s to the lower 90s can be expected
each afternoon next week. Lows in the middle 60s to lower 70s are
expected each night.

Mainly dry conditions are expected through next week. There will
be an upper level low that moves under the Ridge and remains
across the southern U.S. through much of the week. This low will
meander across the western Gulf Coast States if this low drifts
farther to the north a few storms would be possible across mainly
southern Missouri but no widespread shower and storms expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

See the update section above for short term shower/storm forecast
details. Overall, expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours.
High clouds will persist across the region this afternoon,
gradually thinning out at SGF/BBG. Southeast winds will persist
through the forecast cycle, with locally higher wind speeds/gusts
at SGF due to the typical funneling effect observed with southeast
winds. Best rain chances will continue to loiter just to the west
of the area through midday Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan/Wise
AVIATION...Gagan



000
FXUS63 KEAX 271737
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1237 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

There are a couple of chance for showers and storms over the next
couple of days as a shortwave trough moves over the top of the
longwave ridge over the western half of the country. The first chance
will be over eastern Kansas and western Missouri this morning. An
area of strong isentropic ascent should lift east over eastern
Kansas/western Missouri through late morning. Deeper, richer
moisture, in association with the strong lift may lead to the
development of showers and storms. Convection allowing models are
very robust/aggressive with this development, while the coarser scale
NAM and GFS aren`t, even though some precipitation is generated.
Observationally, this mid-level moisture and lift seems to be
manifesting itself in a layer of clouds forming over eastern Kansas
and western Missouri. Given that this area matches the area of lift
depicted, have maintained chance POPs along the western portion of
the forecast area. This activity is expected to diminish by noon as
warm air aloft spreads into the area, capping the atmosphere. This
should result in a warmer, but still seasonal, day as low level
moisture increases.

The next good chance for precipitation will then arrive late
tonight, and even then, mainly across northern Missouri, as the
upper shortwave trough and associated surface low track from the
Central High Plains into the Mid-Missouri Valley. Models are in good
agreement tracking the surface low north of the forecast area and
focusing the LLJ to the north of Missouri. This implies that the best
precipitation chances and highest rainfall amounts will be north of
the forecast area, and quite possibly north of I-80. None- the-less,
precipitable water values climb to over 2" in northern and as the
front pushes into and through the area, any showers or storms that do
develop in the area could produce localized very heavy rainfall. The
threat of severe storms during the day friday looks low at this time.
But instability may be very high, if the NAM verifies, so there may
be some initially robust updrafts. However sheer looks week as the
strong dynamics are departing to the northeast with the upper
shortwave. The GFS is much weaker with the instability with a similar
scenario regarding the sheer. So there remains some uncertainty still
with the degree of destabilization and resulting intensity of any
convection. Scattered showers and storms may persist overnight as the
front moves east, but conditions look to dry out for Saturday.

The air mass moving into the region isn`t dramatically different from
the one it`s replacing. As a result, a slight downward trend in
temperatures and dewpoints is expected. So highs in the low to mid
80s look reasonable at this point. For the rest of the extended, dry
conditions will prevail as the upper ridge moves east. There looks
to be some weakness in the ridge over the Ohio and Mississippi
Valleys and this seems to blunt some of our warming up potential.
But given increasing thickness values, warming temperatures aloft and
southerly flow, highs should climb back into the upper 80s to the
lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Convection should be out of the area by 18z-19z, although it might
hold on until 19-20z considering the light upstream echoes to the
west. Otherwise, timing of the precip for tomorrow is tricky. Since
the better precip looks to take place later in the day, went ahead
and backed off on the timing a little bit. So, with the better
chances being in the 18-00z time frame tomorrow evening went ahead
and shaded the timing more toward that time frame. Added the 14z
grouping for winds picking up during the day.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Leighton




000
FXUS63 KEAX 271737
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1237 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

There are a couple of chance for showers and storms over the next
couple of days as a shortwave trough moves over the top of the
longwave ridge over the western half of the country. The first chance
will be over eastern Kansas and western Missouri this morning. An
area of strong isentropic ascent should lift east over eastern
Kansas/western Missouri through late morning. Deeper, richer
moisture, in association with the strong lift may lead to the
development of showers and storms. Convection allowing models are
very robust/aggressive with this development, while the coarser scale
NAM and GFS aren`t, even though some precipitation is generated.
Observationally, this mid-level moisture and lift seems to be
manifesting itself in a layer of clouds forming over eastern Kansas
and western Missouri. Given that this area matches the area of lift
depicted, have maintained chance POPs along the western portion of
the forecast area. This activity is expected to diminish by noon as
warm air aloft spreads into the area, capping the atmosphere. This
should result in a warmer, but still seasonal, day as low level
moisture increases.

The next good chance for precipitation will then arrive late
tonight, and even then, mainly across northern Missouri, as the
upper shortwave trough and associated surface low track from the
Central High Plains into the Mid-Missouri Valley. Models are in good
agreement tracking the surface low north of the forecast area and
focusing the LLJ to the north of Missouri. This implies that the best
precipitation chances and highest rainfall amounts will be north of
the forecast area, and quite possibly north of I-80. None- the-less,
precipitable water values climb to over 2" in northern and as the
front pushes into and through the area, any showers or storms that do
develop in the area could produce localized very heavy rainfall. The
threat of severe storms during the day friday looks low at this time.
But instability may be very high, if the NAM verifies, so there may
be some initially robust updrafts. However sheer looks week as the
strong dynamics are departing to the northeast with the upper
shortwave. The GFS is much weaker with the instability with a similar
scenario regarding the sheer. So there remains some uncertainty still
with the degree of destabilization and resulting intensity of any
convection. Scattered showers and storms may persist overnight as the
front moves east, but conditions look to dry out for Saturday.

The air mass moving into the region isn`t dramatically different from
the one it`s replacing. As a result, a slight downward trend in
temperatures and dewpoints is expected. So highs in the low to mid
80s look reasonable at this point. For the rest of the extended, dry
conditions will prevail as the upper ridge moves east. There looks
to be some weakness in the ridge over the Ohio and Mississippi
Valleys and this seems to blunt some of our warming up potential.
But given increasing thickness values, warming temperatures aloft and
southerly flow, highs should climb back into the upper 80s to the
lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Convection should be out of the area by 18z-19z, although it might
hold on until 19-20z considering the light upstream echoes to the
west. Otherwise, timing of the precip for tomorrow is tricky. Since
the better precip looks to take place later in the day, went ahead
and backed off on the timing a little bit. So, with the better
chances being in the 18-00z time frame tomorrow evening went ahead
and shaded the timing more toward that time frame. Added the 14z
grouping for winds picking up during the day.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Leighton




000
FXUS63 KEAX 271737
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1237 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

There are a couple of chance for showers and storms over the next
couple of days as a shortwave trough moves over the top of the
longwave ridge over the western half of the country. The first chance
will be over eastern Kansas and western Missouri this morning. An
area of strong isentropic ascent should lift east over eastern
Kansas/western Missouri through late morning. Deeper, richer
moisture, in association with the strong lift may lead to the
development of showers and storms. Convection allowing models are
very robust/aggressive with this development, while the coarser scale
NAM and GFS aren`t, even though some precipitation is generated.
Observationally, this mid-level moisture and lift seems to be
manifesting itself in a layer of clouds forming over eastern Kansas
and western Missouri. Given that this area matches the area of lift
depicted, have maintained chance POPs along the western portion of
the forecast area. This activity is expected to diminish by noon as
warm air aloft spreads into the area, capping the atmosphere. This
should result in a warmer, but still seasonal, day as low level
moisture increases.

The next good chance for precipitation will then arrive late
tonight, and even then, mainly across northern Missouri, as the
upper shortwave trough and associated surface low track from the
Central High Plains into the Mid-Missouri Valley. Models are in good
agreement tracking the surface low north of the forecast area and
focusing the LLJ to the north of Missouri. This implies that the best
precipitation chances and highest rainfall amounts will be north of
the forecast area, and quite possibly north of I-80. None- the-less,
precipitable water values climb to over 2" in northern and as the
front pushes into and through the area, any showers or storms that do
develop in the area could produce localized very heavy rainfall. The
threat of severe storms during the day friday looks low at this time.
But instability may be very high, if the NAM verifies, so there may
be some initially robust updrafts. However sheer looks week as the
strong dynamics are departing to the northeast with the upper
shortwave. The GFS is much weaker with the instability with a similar
scenario regarding the sheer. So there remains some uncertainty still
with the degree of destabilization and resulting intensity of any
convection. Scattered showers and storms may persist overnight as the
front moves east, but conditions look to dry out for Saturday.

The air mass moving into the region isn`t dramatically different from
the one it`s replacing. As a result, a slight downward trend in
temperatures and dewpoints is expected. So highs in the low to mid
80s look reasonable at this point. For the rest of the extended, dry
conditions will prevail as the upper ridge moves east. There looks
to be some weakness in the ridge over the Ohio and Mississippi
Valleys and this seems to blunt some of our warming up potential.
But given increasing thickness values, warming temperatures aloft and
southerly flow, highs should climb back into the upper 80s to the
lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Convection should be out of the area by 18z-19z, although it might
hold on until 19-20z considering the light upstream echoes to the
west. Otherwise, timing of the precip for tomorrow is tricky. Since
the better precip looks to take place later in the day, went ahead
and backed off on the timing a little bit. So, with the better
chances being in the 18-00z time frame tomorrow evening went ahead
and shaded the timing more toward that time frame. Added the 14z
grouping for winds picking up during the day.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Leighton



000
FXUS63 KEAX 271737
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1237 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

There are a couple of chance for showers and storms over the next
couple of days as a shortwave trough moves over the top of the
longwave ridge over the western half of the country. The first chance
will be over eastern Kansas and western Missouri this morning. An
area of strong isentropic ascent should lift east over eastern
Kansas/western Missouri through late morning. Deeper, richer
moisture, in association with the strong lift may lead to the
development of showers and storms. Convection allowing models are
very robust/aggressive with this development, while the coarser scale
NAM and GFS aren`t, even though some precipitation is generated.
Observationally, this mid-level moisture and lift seems to be
manifesting itself in a layer of clouds forming over eastern Kansas
and western Missouri. Given that this area matches the area of lift
depicted, have maintained chance POPs along the western portion of
the forecast area. This activity is expected to diminish by noon as
warm air aloft spreads into the area, capping the atmosphere. This
should result in a warmer, but still seasonal, day as low level
moisture increases.

The next good chance for precipitation will then arrive late
tonight, and even then, mainly across northern Missouri, as the
upper shortwave trough and associated surface low track from the
Central High Plains into the Mid-Missouri Valley. Models are in good
agreement tracking the surface low north of the forecast area and
focusing the LLJ to the north of Missouri. This implies that the best
precipitation chances and highest rainfall amounts will be north of
the forecast area, and quite possibly north of I-80. None- the-less,
precipitable water values climb to over 2" in northern and as the
front pushes into and through the area, any showers or storms that do
develop in the area could produce localized very heavy rainfall. The
threat of severe storms during the day friday looks low at this time.
But instability may be very high, if the NAM verifies, so there may
be some initially robust updrafts. However sheer looks week as the
strong dynamics are departing to the northeast with the upper
shortwave. The GFS is much weaker with the instability with a similar
scenario regarding the sheer. So there remains some uncertainty still
with the degree of destabilization and resulting intensity of any
convection. Scattered showers and storms may persist overnight as the
front moves east, but conditions look to dry out for Saturday.

The air mass moving into the region isn`t dramatically different from
the one it`s replacing. As a result, a slight downward trend in
temperatures and dewpoints is expected. So highs in the low to mid
80s look reasonable at this point. For the rest of the extended, dry
conditions will prevail as the upper ridge moves east. There looks
to be some weakness in the ridge over the Ohio and Mississippi
Valleys and this seems to blunt some of our warming up potential.
But given increasing thickness values, warming temperatures aloft and
southerly flow, highs should climb back into the upper 80s to the
lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Convection should be out of the area by 18z-19z, although it might
hold on until 19-20z considering the light upstream echoes to the
west. Otherwise, timing of the precip for tomorrow is tricky. Since
the better precip looks to take place later in the day, went ahead
and backed off on the timing a little bit. So, with the better
chances being in the 18-00z time frame tomorrow evening went ahead
and shaded the timing more toward that time frame. Added the 14z
grouping for winds picking up during the day.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Leighton



000
FXUS63 KSGF 271734 AAB
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1234 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Showers and storms continue to affect areas along and west of the
MO/KS state line. The activity closest to the state line has
exhibited a distinct weakening trend over the past hour or so, but
additional showers and storms are firing just to the west. Will
maintain the best chances for showers/storms across extreme
southeast Kansas through the mid afternoon hours, and maintain a
dry forecast over much of the Missouri Ozarks.

Cloud cover has held temperatures down so far today, however we
should see this thin out with time. High temperatures have been
adjusted downward a few degrees near the MO/KS state line where
clouds/rain will linger the longest. Otherwise, adjustments to
hourly trends to account for a slower diurnal trend will continue
to be necessary.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0225 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

If convection does indeed develop over the far western portion of
the CWA in southeast Kansas and far western Missouri early this
morning, it will have trouble getting much further east. Much
drier and more stable air exists over most of our CWA, so any
potential of convection today will likely be this morning and in
our far western CWA.

Shortwave energy will continue to track eastward today and tonight
with the main energy remaining north of our CWA. Will maintain low
end precipitation chances over northwest 1/3 of the CWA, but
expecting most areas to remain dry tonight as well.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 0225 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Front remains to our west on Friday with the best energy from the
upper level shortwave still off to the north. Again not expecting
much in the way of precipitation coverage, with slight if any
chances existing in northwest portion of the CWA.

The surface front and shortwave energy will begin to push through
the area Friday night and continue into Saturday, but
shower/thunderstorm coverage looks to remain scattered in nature
with this system, and it looks like not everyone will get
precipitation.

Upper level ridging begins to build back into the area by Saturday
night and precipitation chances through the remainder of the
extended period look to be minimal at this time. Will also see
temperatures rise back to more normal readings for this time of
year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

See the update section above for short term shower/storm forecast
details. Overall, expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours.
High clouds will persist across the region this afternoon,
gradually thinning out at SGF/BBG. Southeast winds will persist
through the forecast cycle, with locally higher wind speeds/gusts
at SGF due to the typical funneling effect observed with southeast
winds. Best rain chances will continue to loiter just to the west
of the area through midday Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Gagan



000
FXUS63 KSGF 271734 AAB
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1234 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Showers and storms continue to affect areas along and west of the
MO/KS state line. The activity closest to the state line has
exhibited a distinct weakening trend over the past hour or so, but
additional showers and storms are firing just to the west. Will
maintain the best chances for showers/storms across extreme
southeast Kansas through the mid afternoon hours, and maintain a
dry forecast over much of the Missouri Ozarks.

Cloud cover has held temperatures down so far today, however we
should see this thin out with time. High temperatures have been
adjusted downward a few degrees near the MO/KS state line where
clouds/rain will linger the longest. Otherwise, adjustments to
hourly trends to account for a slower diurnal trend will continue
to be necessary.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0225 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

If convection does indeed develop over the far western portion of
the CWA in southeast Kansas and far western Missouri early this
morning, it will have trouble getting much further east. Much
drier and more stable air exists over most of our CWA, so any
potential of convection today will likely be this morning and in
our far western CWA.

Shortwave energy will continue to track eastward today and tonight
with the main energy remaining north of our CWA. Will maintain low
end precipitation chances over northwest 1/3 of the CWA, but
expecting most areas to remain dry tonight as well.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 0225 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Front remains to our west on Friday with the best energy from the
upper level shortwave still off to the north. Again not expecting
much in the way of precipitation coverage, with slight if any
chances existing in northwest portion of the CWA.

The surface front and shortwave energy will begin to push through
the area Friday night and continue into Saturday, but
shower/thunderstorm coverage looks to remain scattered in nature
with this system, and it looks like not everyone will get
precipitation.

Upper level ridging begins to build back into the area by Saturday
night and precipitation chances through the remainder of the
extended period look to be minimal at this time. Will also see
temperatures rise back to more normal readings for this time of
year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

See the update section above for short term shower/storm forecast
details. Overall, expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours.
High clouds will persist across the region this afternoon,
gradually thinning out at SGF/BBG. Southeast winds will persist
through the forecast cycle, with locally higher wind speeds/gusts
at SGF due to the typical funneling effect observed with southeast
winds. Best rain chances will continue to loiter just to the west
of the area through midday Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Gagan




000
FXUS63 KSGF 271734 AAB
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1234 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Showers and storms continue to affect areas along and west of the
MO/KS state line. The activity closest to the state line has
exhibited a distinct weakening trend over the past hour or so, but
additional showers and storms are firing just to the west. Will
maintain the best chances for showers/storms across extreme
southeast Kansas through the mid afternoon hours, and maintain a
dry forecast over much of the Missouri Ozarks.

Cloud cover has held temperatures down so far today, however we
should see this thin out with time. High temperatures have been
adjusted downward a few degrees near the MO/KS state line where
clouds/rain will linger the longest. Otherwise, adjustments to
hourly trends to account for a slower diurnal trend will continue
to be necessary.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0225 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

If convection does indeed develop over the far western portion of
the CWA in southeast Kansas and far western Missouri early this
morning, it will have trouble getting much further east. Much
drier and more stable air exists over most of our CWA, so any
potential of convection today will likely be this morning and in
our far western CWA.

Shortwave energy will continue to track eastward today and tonight
with the main energy remaining north of our CWA. Will maintain low
end precipitation chances over northwest 1/3 of the CWA, but
expecting most areas to remain dry tonight as well.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 0225 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Front remains to our west on Friday with the best energy from the
upper level shortwave still off to the north. Again not expecting
much in the way of precipitation coverage, with slight if any
chances existing in northwest portion of the CWA.

The surface front and shortwave energy will begin to push through
the area Friday night and continue into Saturday, but
shower/thunderstorm coverage looks to remain scattered in nature
with this system, and it looks like not everyone will get
precipitation.

Upper level ridging begins to build back into the area by Saturday
night and precipitation chances through the remainder of the
extended period look to be minimal at this time. Will also see
temperatures rise back to more normal readings for this time of
year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

See the update section above for short term shower/storm forecast
details. Overall, expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours.
High clouds will persist across the region this afternoon,
gradually thinning out at SGF/BBG. Southeast winds will persist
through the forecast cycle, with locally higher wind speeds/gusts
at SGF due to the typical funneling effect observed with southeast
winds. Best rain chances will continue to loiter just to the west
of the area through midday Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Gagan




000
FXUS63 KSGF 271734 AAB
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1234 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Showers and storms continue to affect areas along and west of the
MO/KS state line. The activity closest to the state line has
exhibited a distinct weakening trend over the past hour or so, but
additional showers and storms are firing just to the west. Will
maintain the best chances for showers/storms across extreme
southeast Kansas through the mid afternoon hours, and maintain a
dry forecast over much of the Missouri Ozarks.

Cloud cover has held temperatures down so far today, however we
should see this thin out with time. High temperatures have been
adjusted downward a few degrees near the MO/KS state line where
clouds/rain will linger the longest. Otherwise, adjustments to
hourly trends to account for a slower diurnal trend will continue
to be necessary.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0225 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

If convection does indeed develop over the far western portion of
the CWA in southeast Kansas and far western Missouri early this
morning, it will have trouble getting much further east. Much
drier and more stable air exists over most of our CWA, so any
potential of convection today will likely be this morning and in
our far western CWA.

Shortwave energy will continue to track eastward today and tonight
with the main energy remaining north of our CWA. Will maintain low
end precipitation chances over northwest 1/3 of the CWA, but
expecting most areas to remain dry tonight as well.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 0225 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Front remains to our west on Friday with the best energy from the
upper level shortwave still off to the north. Again not expecting
much in the way of precipitation coverage, with slight if any
chances existing in northwest portion of the CWA.

The surface front and shortwave energy will begin to push through
the area Friday night and continue into Saturday, but
shower/thunderstorm coverage looks to remain scattered in nature
with this system, and it looks like not everyone will get
precipitation.

Upper level ridging begins to build back into the area by Saturday
night and precipitation chances through the remainder of the
extended period look to be minimal at this time. Will also see
temperatures rise back to more normal readings for this time of
year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

See the update section above for short term shower/storm forecast
details. Overall, expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours.
High clouds will persist across the region this afternoon,
gradually thinning out at SGF/BBG. Southeast winds will persist
through the forecast cycle, with locally higher wind speeds/gusts
at SGF due to the typical funneling effect observed with southeast
winds. Best rain chances will continue to loiter just to the west
of the area through midday Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Gagan




000
FXUS63 KSGF 271734 AAB
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1234 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Showers and storms continue to affect areas along and west of the
MO/KS state line. The activity closest to the state line has
exhibited a distinct weakening trend over the past hour or so, but
additional showers and storms are firing just to the west. Will
maintain the best chances for showers/storms across extreme
southeast Kansas through the mid afternoon hours, and maintain a
dry forecast over much of the Missouri Ozarks.

Cloud cover has held temperatures down so far today, however we
should see this thin out with time. High temperatures have been
adjusted downward a few degrees near the MO/KS state line where
clouds/rain will linger the longest. Otherwise, adjustments to
hourly trends to account for a slower diurnal trend will continue
to be necessary.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0225 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

If convection does indeed develop over the far western portion of
the CWA in southeast Kansas and far western Missouri early this
morning, it will have trouble getting much further east. Much
drier and more stable air exists over most of our CWA, so any
potential of convection today will likely be this morning and in
our far western CWA.

Shortwave energy will continue to track eastward today and tonight
with the main energy remaining north of our CWA. Will maintain low
end precipitation chances over northwest 1/3 of the CWA, but
expecting most areas to remain dry tonight as well.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 0225 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Front remains to our west on Friday with the best energy from the
upper level shortwave still off to the north. Again not expecting
much in the way of precipitation coverage, with slight if any
chances existing in northwest portion of the CWA.

The surface front and shortwave energy will begin to push through
the area Friday night and continue into Saturday, but
shower/thunderstorm coverage looks to remain scattered in nature
with this system, and it looks like not everyone will get
precipitation.

Upper level ridging begins to build back into the area by Saturday
night and precipitation chances through the remainder of the
extended period look to be minimal at this time. Will also see
temperatures rise back to more normal readings for this time of
year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

See the update section above for short term shower/storm forecast
details. Overall, expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours.
High clouds will persist across the region this afternoon,
gradually thinning out at SGF/BBG. Southeast winds will persist
through the forecast cycle, with locally higher wind speeds/gusts
at SGF due to the typical funneling effect observed with southeast
winds. Best rain chances will continue to loiter just to the west
of the area through midday Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Gagan




000
FXUS63 KSGF 271734 AAB
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1234 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Showers and storms continue to affect areas along and west of the
MO/KS state line. The activity closest to the state line has
exhibited a distinct weakening trend over the past hour or so, but
additional showers and storms are firing just to the west. Will
maintain the best chances for showers/storms across extreme
southeast Kansas through the mid afternoon hours, and maintain a
dry forecast over much of the Missouri Ozarks.

Cloud cover has held temperatures down so far today, however we
should see this thin out with time. High temperatures have been
adjusted downward a few degrees near the MO/KS state line where
clouds/rain will linger the longest. Otherwise, adjustments to
hourly trends to account for a slower diurnal trend will continue
to be necessary.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0225 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

If convection does indeed develop over the far western portion of
the CWA in southeast Kansas and far western Missouri early this
morning, it will have trouble getting much further east. Much
drier and more stable air exists over most of our CWA, so any
potential of convection today will likely be this morning and in
our far western CWA.

Shortwave energy will continue to track eastward today and tonight
with the main energy remaining north of our CWA. Will maintain low
end precipitation chances over northwest 1/3 of the CWA, but
expecting most areas to remain dry tonight as well.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 0225 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Front remains to our west on Friday with the best energy from the
upper level shortwave still off to the north. Again not expecting
much in the way of precipitation coverage, with slight if any
chances existing in northwest portion of the CWA.

The surface front and shortwave energy will begin to push through
the area Friday night and continue into Saturday, but
shower/thunderstorm coverage looks to remain scattered in nature
with this system, and it looks like not everyone will get
precipitation.

Upper level ridging begins to build back into the area by Saturday
night and precipitation chances through the remainder of the
extended period look to be minimal at this time. Will also see
temperatures rise back to more normal readings for this time of
year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

See the update section above for short term shower/storm forecast
details. Overall, expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours.
High clouds will persist across the region this afternoon,
gradually thinning out at SGF/BBG. Southeast winds will persist
through the forecast cycle, with locally higher wind speeds/gusts
at SGF due to the typical funneling effect observed with southeast
winds. Best rain chances will continue to loiter just to the west
of the area through midday Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Gagan




000
FXUS63 KLSX 271719
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1219 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

HAVE INCREASED CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN MISSOURI. OTHERWISE THE
REST OF THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD.

BRITT

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING...OUR REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A TROF
OVER THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE DOMINATING THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS AT THE UPPER LEVELS...RESULTING IN N-NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR
REGION.  AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BUT STILL EXERTED STRONG INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION...PROVIDING A VERY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.  SATELLITE DATA SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES FOR OUR REGION.  TEMPERATURES AT MOST LOCALES WERE IN
THE 50S.

N-NW FLOW ALOFT ABSENT OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PERSIST
TODAY...AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MOVE AWAY BUT SHOULD RETAIN A DOMINANT INFLUENCE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE THE CURRENT DRY ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...WITH MINIMAL ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...AND LEAVE US WITH
ANOTHER DRY DAY.

THE SLOW BUT INEXORABLE DECLINE IN THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE`S
INFLUENCE WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT A BIT IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH A FORECAST ABOUT 1-2F HIGHER THAN PERSISTENCE FAVORED WHICH
LEANS TOWARDS THE MAV MOS NUMBERS:  AROUND 80 IN IL AND LOWER 80S IN
MO.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

TONIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME SO THINK IT WILL
BE DRY WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

WITH COLD FRONT, UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND DECENT LOW LEVEL JET
APPROACHING THE REGION ON FRIDAY, WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
THE INCREASE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH REGION, THOUGH DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE AS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

FRONT TO WEAKEN AS IT EXITS REGION, WASHING OUT TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
ALSO, SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND FRONT IS RATHER WEAK WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO
IT LEAVES OUR AREA IN LIMBO, WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY A BIT WARMER
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. ALSO, WITH WEAK
FLOW OVERHEAD AND WEAK SHORTWAVES SLIDING THROUGH REGION, COULD SEE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY UNTIL EXTENDED MODELS GET A BETTER
GRASP ON THE PATTERN THAT WILL EVOLVE OVER REGION. ANOTHER FLY IN
OINTMENT IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH "ERIKA" AS IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHEASTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ITS AFFECTS ON THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION.

BYRD

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO
FEED DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN LOW LYING
AREA LATE TONIGHT INCLUDING KSUS AND KCPS WHERE THERE WILL BE IFR
FOG FORMATION.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: EXPECT DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

BRITT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 271719
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1219 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

HAVE INCREASED CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN MISSOURI. OTHERWISE THE
REST OF THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD.

BRITT

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING...OUR REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A TROF
OVER THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE DOMINATING THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS AT THE UPPER LEVELS...RESULTING IN N-NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR
REGION.  AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BUT STILL EXERTED STRONG INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION...PROVIDING A VERY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.  SATELLITE DATA SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES FOR OUR REGION.  TEMPERATURES AT MOST LOCALES WERE IN
THE 50S.

N-NW FLOW ALOFT ABSENT OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PERSIST
TODAY...AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MOVE AWAY BUT SHOULD RETAIN A DOMINANT INFLUENCE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE THE CURRENT DRY ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...WITH MINIMAL ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...AND LEAVE US WITH
ANOTHER DRY DAY.

THE SLOW BUT INEXORABLE DECLINE IN THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE`S
INFLUENCE WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT A BIT IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH A FORECAST ABOUT 1-2F HIGHER THAN PERSISTENCE FAVORED WHICH
LEANS TOWARDS THE MAV MOS NUMBERS:  AROUND 80 IN IL AND LOWER 80S IN
MO.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

TONIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME SO THINK IT WILL
BE DRY WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

WITH COLD FRONT, UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND DECENT LOW LEVEL JET
APPROACHING THE REGION ON FRIDAY, WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
THE INCREASE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH REGION, THOUGH DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE AS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

FRONT TO WEAKEN AS IT EXITS REGION, WASHING OUT TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
ALSO, SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND FRONT IS RATHER WEAK WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO
IT LEAVES OUR AREA IN LIMBO, WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY A BIT WARMER
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. ALSO, WITH WEAK
FLOW OVERHEAD AND WEAK SHORTWAVES SLIDING THROUGH REGION, COULD SEE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY UNTIL EXTENDED MODELS GET A BETTER
GRASP ON THE PATTERN THAT WILL EVOLVE OVER REGION. ANOTHER FLY IN
OINTMENT IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH "ERIKA" AS IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHEASTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ITS AFFECTS ON THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION.

BYRD

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO
FEED DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN LOW LYING
AREA LATE TONIGHT INCLUDING KSUS AND KCPS WHERE THERE WILL BE IFR
FOG FORMATION.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: EXPECT DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

BRITT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 271719
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1219 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

HAVE INCREASED CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN MISSOURI. OTHERWISE THE
REST OF THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD.

BRITT

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING...OUR REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A TROF
OVER THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE DOMINATING THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS AT THE UPPER LEVELS...RESULTING IN N-NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR
REGION.  AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BUT STILL EXERTED STRONG INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION...PROVIDING A VERY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.  SATELLITE DATA SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES FOR OUR REGION.  TEMPERATURES AT MOST LOCALES WERE IN
THE 50S.

N-NW FLOW ALOFT ABSENT OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PERSIST
TODAY...AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MOVE AWAY BUT SHOULD RETAIN A DOMINANT INFLUENCE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE THE CURRENT DRY ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...WITH MINIMAL ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...AND LEAVE US WITH
ANOTHER DRY DAY.

THE SLOW BUT INEXORABLE DECLINE IN THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE`S
INFLUENCE WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT A BIT IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH A FORECAST ABOUT 1-2F HIGHER THAN PERSISTENCE FAVORED WHICH
LEANS TOWARDS THE MAV MOS NUMBERS:  AROUND 80 IN IL AND LOWER 80S IN
MO.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

TONIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME SO THINK IT WILL
BE DRY WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

WITH COLD FRONT, UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND DECENT LOW LEVEL JET
APPROACHING THE REGION ON FRIDAY, WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
THE INCREASE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH REGION, THOUGH DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE AS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

FRONT TO WEAKEN AS IT EXITS REGION, WASHING OUT TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
ALSO, SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND FRONT IS RATHER WEAK WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO
IT LEAVES OUR AREA IN LIMBO, WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY A BIT WARMER
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. ALSO, WITH WEAK
FLOW OVERHEAD AND WEAK SHORTWAVES SLIDING THROUGH REGION, COULD SEE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY UNTIL EXTENDED MODELS GET A BETTER
GRASP ON THE PATTERN THAT WILL EVOLVE OVER REGION. ANOTHER FLY IN
OINTMENT IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH "ERIKA" AS IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHEASTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ITS AFFECTS ON THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION.

BYRD

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO
FEED DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN LOW LYING
AREA LATE TONIGHT INCLUDING KSUS AND KCPS WHERE THERE WILL BE IFR
FOG FORMATION.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: EXPECT DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

BRITT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 271719
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1219 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

HAVE INCREASED CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN MISSOURI. OTHERWISE THE
REST OF THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD.

BRITT

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING...OUR REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A TROF
OVER THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE DOMINATING THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS AT THE UPPER LEVELS...RESULTING IN N-NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR
REGION.  AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BUT STILL EXERTED STRONG INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION...PROVIDING A VERY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.  SATELLITE DATA SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES FOR OUR REGION.  TEMPERATURES AT MOST LOCALES WERE IN
THE 50S.

N-NW FLOW ALOFT ABSENT OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PERSIST
TODAY...AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MOVE AWAY BUT SHOULD RETAIN A DOMINANT INFLUENCE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE THE CURRENT DRY ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...WITH MINIMAL ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...AND LEAVE US WITH
ANOTHER DRY DAY.

THE SLOW BUT INEXORABLE DECLINE IN THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE`S
INFLUENCE WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT A BIT IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH A FORECAST ABOUT 1-2F HIGHER THAN PERSISTENCE FAVORED WHICH
LEANS TOWARDS THE MAV MOS NUMBERS:  AROUND 80 IN IL AND LOWER 80S IN
MO.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

TONIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME SO THINK IT WILL
BE DRY WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

WITH COLD FRONT, UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND DECENT LOW LEVEL JET
APPROACHING THE REGION ON FRIDAY, WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
THE INCREASE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH REGION, THOUGH DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE AS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

FRONT TO WEAKEN AS IT EXITS REGION, WASHING OUT TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
ALSO, SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND FRONT IS RATHER WEAK WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO
IT LEAVES OUR AREA IN LIMBO, WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY A BIT WARMER
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. ALSO, WITH WEAK
FLOW OVERHEAD AND WEAK SHORTWAVES SLIDING THROUGH REGION, COULD SEE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY UNTIL EXTENDED MODELS GET A BETTER
GRASP ON THE PATTERN THAT WILL EVOLVE OVER REGION. ANOTHER FLY IN
OINTMENT IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH "ERIKA" AS IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHEASTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ITS AFFECTS ON THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION.

BYRD

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO
FEED DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN LOW LYING
AREA LATE TONIGHT INCLUDING KSUS AND KCPS WHERE THERE WILL BE IFR
FOG FORMATION.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: EXPECT DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

BRITT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 271719
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1219 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

HAVE INCREASED CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN MISSOURI. OTHERWISE THE
REST OF THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD.

BRITT

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING...OUR REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A TROF
OVER THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE DOMINATING THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS AT THE UPPER LEVELS...RESULTING IN N-NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR
REGION.  AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BUT STILL EXERTED STRONG INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION...PROVIDING A VERY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.  SATELLITE DATA SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES FOR OUR REGION.  TEMPERATURES AT MOST LOCALES WERE IN
THE 50S.

N-NW FLOW ALOFT ABSENT OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PERSIST
TODAY...AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MOVE AWAY BUT SHOULD RETAIN A DOMINANT INFLUENCE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE THE CURRENT DRY ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...WITH MINIMAL ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...AND LEAVE US WITH
ANOTHER DRY DAY.

THE SLOW BUT INEXORABLE DECLINE IN THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE`S
INFLUENCE WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT A BIT IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH A FORECAST ABOUT 1-2F HIGHER THAN PERSISTENCE FAVORED WHICH
LEANS TOWARDS THE MAV MOS NUMBERS:  AROUND 80 IN IL AND LOWER 80S IN
MO.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

TONIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME SO THINK IT WILL
BE DRY WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

WITH COLD FRONT, UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND DECENT LOW LEVEL JET
APPROACHING THE REGION ON FRIDAY, WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
THE INCREASE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH REGION, THOUGH DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE AS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

FRONT TO WEAKEN AS IT EXITS REGION, WASHING OUT TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
ALSO, SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND FRONT IS RATHER WEAK WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO
IT LEAVES OUR AREA IN LIMBO, WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY A BIT WARMER
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. ALSO, WITH WEAK
FLOW OVERHEAD AND WEAK SHORTWAVES SLIDING THROUGH REGION, COULD SEE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY UNTIL EXTENDED MODELS GET A BETTER
GRASP ON THE PATTERN THAT WILL EVOLVE OVER REGION. ANOTHER FLY IN
OINTMENT IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH "ERIKA" AS IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHEASTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ITS AFFECTS ON THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION.

BYRD

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO
FEED DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN LOW LYING
AREA LATE TONIGHT INCLUDING KSUS AND KCPS WHERE THERE WILL BE IFR
FOG FORMATION.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: EXPECT DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

BRITT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 271719
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1219 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

HAVE INCREASED CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN MISSOURI. OTHERWISE THE
REST OF THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD.

BRITT

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING...OUR REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A TROF
OVER THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE DOMINATING THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS AT THE UPPER LEVELS...RESULTING IN N-NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR
REGION.  AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BUT STILL EXERTED STRONG INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION...PROVIDING A VERY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.  SATELLITE DATA SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES FOR OUR REGION.  TEMPERATURES AT MOST LOCALES WERE IN
THE 50S.

N-NW FLOW ALOFT ABSENT OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PERSIST
TODAY...AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MOVE AWAY BUT SHOULD RETAIN A DOMINANT INFLUENCE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE THE CURRENT DRY ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...WITH MINIMAL ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...AND LEAVE US WITH
ANOTHER DRY DAY.

THE SLOW BUT INEXORABLE DECLINE IN THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE`S
INFLUENCE WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT A BIT IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH A FORECAST ABOUT 1-2F HIGHER THAN PERSISTENCE FAVORED WHICH
LEANS TOWARDS THE MAV MOS NUMBERS:  AROUND 80 IN IL AND LOWER 80S IN
MO.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

TONIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME SO THINK IT WILL
BE DRY WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

WITH COLD FRONT, UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND DECENT LOW LEVEL JET
APPROACHING THE REGION ON FRIDAY, WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
THE INCREASE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH REGION, THOUGH DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE AS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

FRONT TO WEAKEN AS IT EXITS REGION, WASHING OUT TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
ALSO, SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND FRONT IS RATHER WEAK WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO
IT LEAVES OUR AREA IN LIMBO, WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY A BIT WARMER
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. ALSO, WITH WEAK
FLOW OVERHEAD AND WEAK SHORTWAVES SLIDING THROUGH REGION, COULD SEE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY UNTIL EXTENDED MODELS GET A BETTER
GRASP ON THE PATTERN THAT WILL EVOLVE OVER REGION. ANOTHER FLY IN
OINTMENT IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH "ERIKA" AS IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHEASTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ITS AFFECTS ON THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION.

BYRD

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO
FEED DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN LOW LYING
AREA LATE TONIGHT INCLUDING KSUS AND KCPS WHERE THERE WILL BE IFR
FOG FORMATION.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: EXPECT DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

BRITT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KSGF 271350 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
850 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 0838 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Vigorous elevated convection continues to develop across eastern
Kansas this morning. Isentropic upglide centered around the 310K
level is tapping into an unstable source of air upstream. Most
unstable CAPE (MUCAPE) values earlier were approaching 3000 J/kg
with enough shear for occasional supercell structures. This
resulted in several reports of large hail across extreme southeast
Kansas. Most stones have been around 1 inch in diameter, though we
did received a report of baseball sized hail in Crawford county.

Recent mesoanalysis indicates the MUCAPE values have come down a
bit, between 1500 and 2000 J/kg. This is due to the airmass being
worked over by earlier storms. As was the case earlier mixed
layer CAPE is still rather low, on the order of a few hundred
J/kg and surface based CAPE remains non existent. As a result,
will maintain our main risks as hail to the size of quarters and
cloud to ground lightning.

Expectations over the next few hours is for storms to continue to
move south. Upper level wind fields and cell motion vectors
continue to favor a southward movement (if not south-southwest).
As a result, little in the way of activity is expected to cross
the MO/KS state line. Convection intensity will wane as we head
through the morning hours, with activity expected to exit to the
south/southwest or dissipate by midday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 0225 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Another pleasant night across the Ozarks region with temperatures
in the mid 50s over the eastern Ozarks to the mid 60s in the west.
Generally seeing a clear sky across the area.

A thunderstorm complex has developed over South Dakota on top of
the ridge axis in an area where upper level energy was moving in
from the west and beginning to break down that ridge. An
instability axis extends almost due south from the current
convective activity through Nebraska and Kansas. HRRR continues to
develop convection towards daybreak over far eastern Kansas on the
edge of this instability in an area of isentropic upglide. Will
need to monitor for this development in a couple/few hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0225 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

If convection does indeed develop over the far western portion of
the CWA in southeast Kansas and far western Missouri early this
morning, it will have trouble getting much further east. Much
drier and more stable air exists over most of our CWA, so any
potential of convection today will likely be this morning and in
our far western CWA.

Shortwave energy will continue to track eastward today and tonight
with the main energy remaining north of our CWA. Will maintain low
end precipitation chances over northwest 1/3 of the CWA, but
expecting most areas to remain dry tonight as well.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 0225 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Front remains to our west on Friday with the best energy from the
upper level shortwave still off to the north. Again not expecting
much in the way of precipitation coverage, with slight if any
chances existing in northwest portion of the CWA.

The surface front and shortwave energy will begin to push through
the area Friday night and continue into Saturday, but
shower/thunderstorm coverage looks to remain scattered in nature
with this system, and it looks like not everyone will get
precipitation.

Upper level ridging begins to build back into the area by Saturday
night and precipitation chances through the remainder of the
extended period look to be minimal at this time. Will also see
temperatures rise back to more normal readings for this time of
year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR conditions are expected through Thursday evening. A few
thunderstorms will be possible around sunrise on Thursday across
extreme southeastern Kansas, but they are expected to remain west
of the Joplin aerodrome at this time. Variable winds tonight will
become southeast on Thursday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Gagan
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann



000
FXUS63 KSGF 271350 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
850 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 0838 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Vigorous elevated convection continues to develop across eastern
Kansas this morning. Isentropic upglide centered around the 310K
level is tapping into an unstable source of air upstream. Most
unstable CAPE (MUCAPE) values earlier were approaching 3000 J/kg
with enough shear for occasional supercell structures. This
resulted in several reports of large hail across extreme southeast
Kansas. Most stones have been around 1 inch in diameter, though we
did received a report of baseball sized hail in Crawford county.

Recent mesoanalysis indicates the MUCAPE values have come down a
bit, between 1500 and 2000 J/kg. This is due to the airmass being
worked over by earlier storms. As was the case earlier mixed
layer CAPE is still rather low, on the order of a few hundred
J/kg and surface based CAPE remains non existent. As a result,
will maintain our main risks as hail to the size of quarters and
cloud to ground lightning.

Expectations over the next few hours is for storms to continue to
move south. Upper level wind fields and cell motion vectors
continue to favor a southward movement (if not south-southwest).
As a result, little in the way of activity is expected to cross
the MO/KS state line. Convection intensity will wane as we head
through the morning hours, with activity expected to exit to the
south/southwest or dissipate by midday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 0225 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Another pleasant night across the Ozarks region with temperatures
in the mid 50s over the eastern Ozarks to the mid 60s in the west.
Generally seeing a clear sky across the area.

A thunderstorm complex has developed over South Dakota on top of
the ridge axis in an area where upper level energy was moving in
from the west and beginning to break down that ridge. An
instability axis extends almost due south from the current
convective activity through Nebraska and Kansas. HRRR continues to
develop convection towards daybreak over far eastern Kansas on the
edge of this instability in an area of isentropic upglide. Will
need to monitor for this development in a couple/few hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0225 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

If convection does indeed develop over the far western portion of
the CWA in southeast Kansas and far western Missouri early this
morning, it will have trouble getting much further east. Much
drier and more stable air exists over most of our CWA, so any
potential of convection today will likely be this morning and in
our far western CWA.

Shortwave energy will continue to track eastward today and tonight
with the main energy remaining north of our CWA. Will maintain low
end precipitation chances over northwest 1/3 of the CWA, but
expecting most areas to remain dry tonight as well.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 0225 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Front remains to our west on Friday with the best energy from the
upper level shortwave still off to the north. Again not expecting
much in the way of precipitation coverage, with slight if any
chances existing in northwest portion of the CWA.

The surface front and shortwave energy will begin to push through
the area Friday night and continue into Saturday, but
shower/thunderstorm coverage looks to remain scattered in nature
with this system, and it looks like not everyone will get
precipitation.

Upper level ridging begins to build back into the area by Saturday
night and precipitation chances through the remainder of the
extended period look to be minimal at this time. Will also see
temperatures rise back to more normal readings for this time of
year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR conditions are expected through Thursday evening. A few
thunderstorms will be possible around sunrise on Thursday across
extreme southeastern Kansas, but they are expected to remain west
of the Joplin aerodrome at this time. Variable winds tonight will
become southeast on Thursday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Gagan
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann




000
FXUS63 KLSX 271116
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
616 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING...OUR REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A TROF
OVER THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE DOMINATING THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS AT THE UPPER LEVELS...RESULTING IN N-NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR
REGION.  AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BUT STILL EXERTED STRONG INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION...PROVIDING A VERY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.  SATELLITE DATA SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES FOR OUR REGION.  TEMPERATURES AT MOST LOCALES WERE IN
THE 50S.

N-NW FLOW ALOFT ABSENT OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PERSIST
TODAY...AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MOVE AWAY BUT SHOULD RETAIN A DOMINANT INFLUENCE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE THE CURRENT DRY ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...WITH MINIMAL ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...AND LEAVE US WITH
ANOTHER DRY DAY.

THE SLOW BUT INEXORABLE DECLINE IN THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE`S
INFLUENCE WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT A BIT IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH A FORECAST ABOUT 1-2F HIGHER THAN PERSISTENCE FAVORED WHICH
LEANS TOWARDS THE MAV MOS NUMBERS:  AROUND 80 IN IL AND LOWER 80S IN
MO.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

TONIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME SO THINK IT WILL
BE DRY WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

WITH COLD FRONT, UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND DECENT LOW LEVEL JET
APPROACHING THE REGION ON FRIDAY, WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
THE INCREASE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH REGION, THOUGH DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE AS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

FRONT TO WEAKEN AS IT EXITS REGION, WASHING OUT TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
ALSO, SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND FRONT IS RATHER WEAK WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO
IT LEAVES OUR AREA IN LIMBO, WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY A BIT WARMER
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. ALSO, WITH WEAK
FLOW OVERHEAD AND WEAK SHORTWAVES SLIDING THROUGH REGION, COULD SEE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY UNTIL EXTENDED MODELS GET A BETTER
GRASP ON THE PATTERN THAT WILL EVOLVE OVER REGION. ANOTHER FLY IN
OINTMENT IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH "ERIKA" AS IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHEASTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ITS AFFECTS ON THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION.

BYRD

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS...DRY WX...AND LIGHT SE SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE VALID PERIOD. ONCE AGAIN...SOME STEAM
FOG WILL BE A SHORT-LIVED THREAT NEAR SUS AND CPS UNTIL 13Z THIS
MORNING AND HANDLED WITH VCFG.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 271116
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
616 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING...OUR REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A TROF
OVER THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE DOMINATING THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS AT THE UPPER LEVELS...RESULTING IN N-NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR
REGION.  AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BUT STILL EXERTED STRONG INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION...PROVIDING A VERY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.  SATELLITE DATA SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES FOR OUR REGION.  TEMPERATURES AT MOST LOCALES WERE IN
THE 50S.

N-NW FLOW ALOFT ABSENT OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PERSIST
TODAY...AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MOVE AWAY BUT SHOULD RETAIN A DOMINANT INFLUENCE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE THE CURRENT DRY ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...WITH MINIMAL ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...AND LEAVE US WITH
ANOTHER DRY DAY.

THE SLOW BUT INEXORABLE DECLINE IN THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE`S
INFLUENCE WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT A BIT IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH A FORECAST ABOUT 1-2F HIGHER THAN PERSISTENCE FAVORED WHICH
LEANS TOWARDS THE MAV MOS NUMBERS:  AROUND 80 IN IL AND LOWER 80S IN
MO.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

TONIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME SO THINK IT WILL
BE DRY WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

WITH COLD FRONT, UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND DECENT LOW LEVEL JET
APPROACHING THE REGION ON FRIDAY, WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
THE INCREASE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH REGION, THOUGH DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE AS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

FRONT TO WEAKEN AS IT EXITS REGION, WASHING OUT TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
ALSO, SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND FRONT IS RATHER WEAK WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO
IT LEAVES OUR AREA IN LIMBO, WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY A BIT WARMER
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. ALSO, WITH WEAK
FLOW OVERHEAD AND WEAK SHORTWAVES SLIDING THROUGH REGION, COULD SEE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY UNTIL EXTENDED MODELS GET A BETTER
GRASP ON THE PATTERN THAT WILL EVOLVE OVER REGION. ANOTHER FLY IN
OINTMENT IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH "ERIKA" AS IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHEASTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ITS AFFECTS ON THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION.

BYRD

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS...DRY WX...AND LIGHT SE SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE VALID PERIOD. ONCE AGAIN...SOME STEAM
FOG WILL BE A SHORT-LIVED THREAT NEAR SUS AND CPS UNTIL 13Z THIS
MORNING AND HANDLED WITH VCFG.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 271116
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
616 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING...OUR REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A TROF
OVER THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE DOMINATING THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS AT THE UPPER LEVELS...RESULTING IN N-NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR
REGION.  AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BUT STILL EXERTED STRONG INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION...PROVIDING A VERY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.  SATELLITE DATA SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES FOR OUR REGION.  TEMPERATURES AT MOST LOCALES WERE IN
THE 50S.

N-NW FLOW ALOFT ABSENT OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PERSIST
TODAY...AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MOVE AWAY BUT SHOULD RETAIN A DOMINANT INFLUENCE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE THE CURRENT DRY ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...WITH MINIMAL ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...AND LEAVE US WITH
ANOTHER DRY DAY.

THE SLOW BUT INEXORABLE DECLINE IN THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE`S
INFLUENCE WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT A BIT IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH A FORECAST ABOUT 1-2F HIGHER THAN PERSISTENCE FAVORED WHICH
LEANS TOWARDS THE MAV MOS NUMBERS:  AROUND 80 IN IL AND LOWER 80S IN
MO.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

TONIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME SO THINK IT WILL
BE DRY WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

WITH COLD FRONT, UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND DECENT LOW LEVEL JET
APPROACHING THE REGION ON FRIDAY, WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
THE INCREASE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH REGION, THOUGH DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE AS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

FRONT TO WEAKEN AS IT EXITS REGION, WASHING OUT TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
ALSO, SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND FRONT IS RATHER WEAK WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO
IT LEAVES OUR AREA IN LIMBO, WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY A BIT WARMER
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. ALSO, WITH WEAK
FLOW OVERHEAD AND WEAK SHORTWAVES SLIDING THROUGH REGION, COULD SEE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY UNTIL EXTENDED MODELS GET A BETTER
GRASP ON THE PATTERN THAT WILL EVOLVE OVER REGION. ANOTHER FLY IN
OINTMENT IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH "ERIKA" AS IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHEASTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ITS AFFECTS ON THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION.

BYRD

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS...DRY WX...AND LIGHT SE SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE VALID PERIOD. ONCE AGAIN...SOME STEAM
FOG WILL BE A SHORT-LIVED THREAT NEAR SUS AND CPS UNTIL 13Z THIS
MORNING AND HANDLED WITH VCFG.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 271116
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
616 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING...OUR REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A TROF
OVER THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE DOMINATING THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS AT THE UPPER LEVELS...RESULTING IN N-NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR
REGION.  AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BUT STILL EXERTED STRONG INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION...PROVIDING A VERY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.  SATELLITE DATA SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES FOR OUR REGION.  TEMPERATURES AT MOST LOCALES WERE IN
THE 50S.

N-NW FLOW ALOFT ABSENT OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PERSIST
TODAY...AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MOVE AWAY BUT SHOULD RETAIN A DOMINANT INFLUENCE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE THE CURRENT DRY ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...WITH MINIMAL ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...AND LEAVE US WITH
ANOTHER DRY DAY.

THE SLOW BUT INEXORABLE DECLINE IN THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE`S
INFLUENCE WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT A BIT IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH A FORECAST ABOUT 1-2F HIGHER THAN PERSISTENCE FAVORED WHICH
LEANS TOWARDS THE MAV MOS NUMBERS:  AROUND 80 IN IL AND LOWER 80S IN
MO.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

TONIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME SO THINK IT WILL
BE DRY WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

WITH COLD FRONT, UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND DECENT LOW LEVEL JET
APPROACHING THE REGION ON FRIDAY, WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
THE INCREASE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH REGION, THOUGH DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE AS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

FRONT TO WEAKEN AS IT EXITS REGION, WASHING OUT TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
ALSO, SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND FRONT IS RATHER WEAK WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO
IT LEAVES OUR AREA IN LIMBO, WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY A BIT WARMER
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. ALSO, WITH WEAK
FLOW OVERHEAD AND WEAK SHORTWAVES SLIDING THROUGH REGION, COULD SEE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY UNTIL EXTENDED MODELS GET A BETTER
GRASP ON THE PATTERN THAT WILL EVOLVE OVER REGION. ANOTHER FLY IN
OINTMENT IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH "ERIKA" AS IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHEASTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ITS AFFECTS ON THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION.

BYRD

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS...DRY WX...AND LIGHT SE SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE VALID PERIOD. ONCE AGAIN...SOME STEAM
FOG WILL BE A SHORT-LIVED THREAT NEAR SUS AND CPS UNTIL 13Z THIS
MORNING AND HANDLED WITH VCFG.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 271116
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
616 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING...OUR REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A TROF
OVER THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE DOMINATING THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS AT THE UPPER LEVELS...RESULTING IN N-NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR
REGION.  AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BUT STILL EXERTED STRONG INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION...PROVIDING A VERY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.  SATELLITE DATA SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES FOR OUR REGION.  TEMPERATURES AT MOST LOCALES WERE IN
THE 50S.

N-NW FLOW ALOFT ABSENT OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PERSIST
TODAY...AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MOVE AWAY BUT SHOULD RETAIN A DOMINANT INFLUENCE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE THE CURRENT DRY ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...WITH MINIMAL ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...AND LEAVE US WITH
ANOTHER DRY DAY.

THE SLOW BUT INEXORABLE DECLINE IN THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE`S
INFLUENCE WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT A BIT IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH A FORECAST ABOUT 1-2F HIGHER THAN PERSISTENCE FAVORED WHICH
LEANS TOWARDS THE MAV MOS NUMBERS:  AROUND 80 IN IL AND LOWER 80S IN
MO.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

TONIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME SO THINK IT WILL
BE DRY WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

WITH COLD FRONT, UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND DECENT LOW LEVEL JET
APPROACHING THE REGION ON FRIDAY, WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
THE INCREASE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH REGION, THOUGH DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE AS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

FRONT TO WEAKEN AS IT EXITS REGION, WASHING OUT TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
ALSO, SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND FRONT IS RATHER WEAK WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO
IT LEAVES OUR AREA IN LIMBO, WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY A BIT WARMER
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. ALSO, WITH WEAK
FLOW OVERHEAD AND WEAK SHORTWAVES SLIDING THROUGH REGION, COULD SEE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY UNTIL EXTENDED MODELS GET A BETTER
GRASP ON THE PATTERN THAT WILL EVOLVE OVER REGION. ANOTHER FLY IN
OINTMENT IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH "ERIKA" AS IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHEASTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ITS AFFECTS ON THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION.

BYRD

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS...DRY WX...AND LIGHT SE SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE VALID PERIOD. ONCE AGAIN...SOME STEAM
FOG WILL BE A SHORT-LIVED THREAT NEAR SUS AND CPS UNTIL 13Z THIS
MORNING AND HANDLED WITH VCFG.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 271116
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
616 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING...OUR REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A TROF
OVER THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE DOMINATING THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS AT THE UPPER LEVELS...RESULTING IN N-NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR
REGION.  AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BUT STILL EXERTED STRONG INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION...PROVIDING A VERY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.  SATELLITE DATA SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES FOR OUR REGION.  TEMPERATURES AT MOST LOCALES WERE IN
THE 50S.

N-NW FLOW ALOFT ABSENT OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PERSIST
TODAY...AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MOVE AWAY BUT SHOULD RETAIN A DOMINANT INFLUENCE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE THE CURRENT DRY ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...WITH MINIMAL ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...AND LEAVE US WITH
ANOTHER DRY DAY.

THE SLOW BUT INEXORABLE DECLINE IN THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE`S
INFLUENCE WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT A BIT IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH A FORECAST ABOUT 1-2F HIGHER THAN PERSISTENCE FAVORED WHICH
LEANS TOWARDS THE MAV MOS NUMBERS:  AROUND 80 IN IL AND LOWER 80S IN
MO.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

TONIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME SO THINK IT WILL
BE DRY WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

WITH COLD FRONT, UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND DECENT LOW LEVEL JET
APPROACHING THE REGION ON FRIDAY, WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
THE INCREASE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH REGION, THOUGH DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE AS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

FRONT TO WEAKEN AS IT EXITS REGION, WASHING OUT TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
ALSO, SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND FRONT IS RATHER WEAK WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO
IT LEAVES OUR AREA IN LIMBO, WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY A BIT WARMER
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. ALSO, WITH WEAK
FLOW OVERHEAD AND WEAK SHORTWAVES SLIDING THROUGH REGION, COULD SEE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY UNTIL EXTENDED MODELS GET A BETTER
GRASP ON THE PATTERN THAT WILL EVOLVE OVER REGION. ANOTHER FLY IN
OINTMENT IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH "ERIKA" AS IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHEASTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ITS AFFECTS ON THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION.

BYRD

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS...DRY WX...AND LIGHT SE SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE VALID PERIOD. ONCE AGAIN...SOME STEAM
FOG WILL BE A SHORT-LIVED THREAT NEAR SUS AND CPS UNTIL 13Z THIS
MORNING AND HANDLED WITH VCFG.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 271116
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
616 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING...OUR REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A TROF
OVER THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE DOMINATING THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS AT THE UPPER LEVELS...RESULTING IN N-NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR
REGION.  AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BUT STILL EXERTED STRONG INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION...PROVIDING A VERY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.  SATELLITE DATA SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES FOR OUR REGION.  TEMPERATURES AT MOST LOCALES WERE IN
THE 50S.

N-NW FLOW ALOFT ABSENT OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PERSIST
TODAY...AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MOVE AWAY BUT SHOULD RETAIN A DOMINANT INFLUENCE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE THE CURRENT DRY ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...WITH MINIMAL ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...AND LEAVE US WITH
ANOTHER DRY DAY.

THE SLOW BUT INEXORABLE DECLINE IN THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE`S
INFLUENCE WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT A BIT IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH A FORECAST ABOUT 1-2F HIGHER THAN PERSISTENCE FAVORED WHICH
LEANS TOWARDS THE MAV MOS NUMBERS:  AROUND 80 IN IL AND LOWER 80S IN
MO.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

TONIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME SO THINK IT WILL
BE DRY WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

WITH COLD FRONT, UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND DECENT LOW LEVEL JET
APPROACHING THE REGION ON FRIDAY, WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
THE INCREASE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH REGION, THOUGH DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE AS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

FRONT TO WEAKEN AS IT EXITS REGION, WASHING OUT TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
ALSO, SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND FRONT IS RATHER WEAK WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO
IT LEAVES OUR AREA IN LIMBO, WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY A BIT WARMER
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. ALSO, WITH WEAK
FLOW OVERHEAD AND WEAK SHORTWAVES SLIDING THROUGH REGION, COULD SEE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY UNTIL EXTENDED MODELS GET A BETTER
GRASP ON THE PATTERN THAT WILL EVOLVE OVER REGION. ANOTHER FLY IN
OINTMENT IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH "ERIKA" AS IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHEASTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ITS AFFECTS ON THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION.

BYRD

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS...DRY WX...AND LIGHT SE SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE VALID PERIOD. ONCE AGAIN...SOME STEAM
FOG WILL BE A SHORT-LIVED THREAT NEAR SUS AND CPS UNTIL 13Z THIS
MORNING AND HANDLED WITH VCFG.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 271116
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
616 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING...OUR REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A TROF
OVER THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE DOMINATING THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS AT THE UPPER LEVELS...RESULTING IN N-NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR
REGION.  AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BUT STILL EXERTED STRONG INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION...PROVIDING A VERY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.  SATELLITE DATA SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES FOR OUR REGION.  TEMPERATURES AT MOST LOCALES WERE IN
THE 50S.

N-NW FLOW ALOFT ABSENT OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PERSIST
TODAY...AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MOVE AWAY BUT SHOULD RETAIN A DOMINANT INFLUENCE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE THE CURRENT DRY ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...WITH MINIMAL ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...AND LEAVE US WITH
ANOTHER DRY DAY.

THE SLOW BUT INEXORABLE DECLINE IN THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE`S
INFLUENCE WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT A BIT IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH A FORECAST ABOUT 1-2F HIGHER THAN PERSISTENCE FAVORED WHICH
LEANS TOWARDS THE MAV MOS NUMBERS:  AROUND 80 IN IL AND LOWER 80S IN
MO.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

TONIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME SO THINK IT WILL
BE DRY WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

WITH COLD FRONT, UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND DECENT LOW LEVEL JET
APPROACHING THE REGION ON FRIDAY, WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
THE INCREASE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH REGION, THOUGH DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE AS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

FRONT TO WEAKEN AS IT EXITS REGION, WASHING OUT TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
ALSO, SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND FRONT IS RATHER WEAK WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO
IT LEAVES OUR AREA IN LIMBO, WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY A BIT WARMER
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. ALSO, WITH WEAK
FLOW OVERHEAD AND WEAK SHORTWAVES SLIDING THROUGH REGION, COULD SEE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY UNTIL EXTENDED MODELS GET A BETTER
GRASP ON THE PATTERN THAT WILL EVOLVE OVER REGION. ANOTHER FLY IN
OINTMENT IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH "ERIKA" AS IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHEASTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ITS AFFECTS ON THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION.

BYRD

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS...DRY WX...AND LIGHT SE SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE VALID PERIOD. ONCE AGAIN...SOME STEAM
FOG WILL BE A SHORT-LIVED THREAT NEAR SUS AND CPS UNTIL 13Z THIS
MORNING AND HANDLED WITH VCFG.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KEAX 271055
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
555 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

There are a couple of chance for showers and storms over the next
couple of days as a shortwave trough moves over the top of the
longwave ridge over the western half of the country. The first chance
will be over eastern Kansas and western Missouri this morning. An
area of strong isentropic ascent should lift east over eastern
Kansas/western Missouri through late morning. Deeper, richer
moisture, in association with the strong lift may lead to the
development of showers and storms. Convection allowing models are
very robust/aggressive with this development, while the coarser scale
NAM and GFS aren`t, even though some precipitation is generated.
Observationally, this mid-level moisture and lift seems to be
manifesting itself in a layer of clouds forming over eastern Kansas
and western Missouri. Given that this area matches the area of lift
depicted, have maintained chance POPs along the western portion of
the forecast area. This activity is expected to diminish by noon as
warm air aloft spreads into the area, capping the atmosphere. This
should result in a warmer, but still seasonal, day as low level
moisture increases.

The next good chance for precipitation will then arrive late
tonight, and even then, mainly across northern Missouri, as the
upper shortwave trough and associated surface low track from the
Central High Plains into the Mid-Missouri Valley. Models are in good
agreement tracking the surface low north of the forecast area and
focusing the LLJ to the north of Missouri. This implies that the best
precipitation chances and highest rainfall amounts will be north of
the forecast area, and quite possibly north of I-80. None- the-less,
precipitable water values climb to over 2" in northern and as the
front pushes into and through the area, any showers or storms that do
develop in the area could produce localized very heavy rainfall. The
threat of severe storms during the day friday looks low at this time.
But instability may be very high, if the NAM verifies, so there may
be some initially robust updrafts. However sheer looks week as the
strong dynamics are departing to the northeast with the upper
shortwave. The GFS is much weaker with the instability with a similar
scenario regarding the sheer. So there remains some uncertainty still
with the degree of destabilization and resulting intensity of any
convection. Scattered showers and storms may persist overnight as the
front moves east, but conditions look to dry out for Saturday.

The air mass moving into the region isn`t dramatically different from
the one it`s replacing. As a result, a slight downward trend in
temperatures and dewpoints is expected. So highs in the low to mid
80s look reasonable at this point. For the rest of the extended, dry
conditions will prevail as the upper ridge moves east. There looks
to be some weakness in the ridge over the Ohio and Mississippi
Valleys and this seems to blunt some of our warming up potential.
But given increasing thickness values, warming temperatures aloft and
southerly flow, highs should climb back into the upper 80s to the
lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 548 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Thunderstorms developed rapidly this morning but their motions are
nearly north to south. So storms west of the terminals won`t really
have an impact. Rather, it will take new development further east to
cause an impact at any of the terminals. For now, it looks like
storms have the greatest chance of moving into the KMKC and KIXD
terminals. So have included a TSRA mention over the next few hours.
Otherwise, convection looks scattered enough to keep a VCTS group
going through late this morning for the other sites. Convection
should diminish by late morning and give way to VFR conditions with
southerly winds. There will be another chance for storms late
tonight. Timing of this may be after midnight so for now have just
carried a VCTS for the overnight period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB



000
FXUS63 KEAX 271055
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
555 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

There are a couple of chance for showers and storms over the next
couple of days as a shortwave trough moves over the top of the
longwave ridge over the western half of the country. The first chance
will be over eastern Kansas and western Missouri this morning. An
area of strong isentropic ascent should lift east over eastern
Kansas/western Missouri through late morning. Deeper, richer
moisture, in association with the strong lift may lead to the
development of showers and storms. Convection allowing models are
very robust/aggressive with this development, while the coarser scale
NAM and GFS aren`t, even though some precipitation is generated.
Observationally, this mid-level moisture and lift seems to be
manifesting itself in a layer of clouds forming over eastern Kansas
and western Missouri. Given that this area matches the area of lift
depicted, have maintained chance POPs along the western portion of
the forecast area. This activity is expected to diminish by noon as
warm air aloft spreads into the area, capping the atmosphere. This
should result in a warmer, but still seasonal, day as low level
moisture increases.

The next good chance for precipitation will then arrive late
tonight, and even then, mainly across northern Missouri, as the
upper shortwave trough and associated surface low track from the
Central High Plains into the Mid-Missouri Valley. Models are in good
agreement tracking the surface low north of the forecast area and
focusing the LLJ to the north of Missouri. This implies that the best
precipitation chances and highest rainfall amounts will be north of
the forecast area, and quite possibly north of I-80. None- the-less,
precipitable water values climb to over 2" in northern and as the
front pushes into and through the area, any showers or storms that do
develop in the area could produce localized very heavy rainfall. The
threat of severe storms during the day friday looks low at this time.
But instability may be very high, if the NAM verifies, so there may
be some initially robust updrafts. However sheer looks week as the
strong dynamics are departing to the northeast with the upper
shortwave. The GFS is much weaker with the instability with a similar
scenario regarding the sheer. So there remains some uncertainty still
with the degree of destabilization and resulting intensity of any
convection. Scattered showers and storms may persist overnight as the
front moves east, but conditions look to dry out for Saturday.

The air mass moving into the region isn`t dramatically different from
the one it`s replacing. As a result, a slight downward trend in
temperatures and dewpoints is expected. So highs in the low to mid
80s look reasonable at this point. For the rest of the extended, dry
conditions will prevail as the upper ridge moves east. There looks
to be some weakness in the ridge over the Ohio and Mississippi
Valleys and this seems to blunt some of our warming up potential.
But given increasing thickness values, warming temperatures aloft and
southerly flow, highs should climb back into the upper 80s to the
lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 548 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Thunderstorms developed rapidly this morning but their motions are
nearly north to south. So storms west of the terminals won`t really
have an impact. Rather, it will take new development further east to
cause an impact at any of the terminals. For now, it looks like
storms have the greatest chance of moving into the KMKC and KIXD
terminals. So have included a TSRA mention over the next few hours.
Otherwise, convection looks scattered enough to keep a VCTS group
going through late this morning for the other sites. Convection
should diminish by late morning and give way to VFR conditions with
southerly winds. There will be another chance for storms late
tonight. Timing of this may be after midnight so for now have just
carried a VCTS for the overnight period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB




000
FXUS63 KEAX 271055
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
555 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

There are a couple of chance for showers and storms over the next
couple of days as a shortwave trough moves over the top of the
longwave ridge over the western half of the country. The first chance
will be over eastern Kansas and western Missouri this morning. An
area of strong isentropic ascent should lift east over eastern
Kansas/western Missouri through late morning. Deeper, richer
moisture, in association with the strong lift may lead to the
development of showers and storms. Convection allowing models are
very robust/aggressive with this development, while the coarser scale
NAM and GFS aren`t, even though some precipitation is generated.
Observationally, this mid-level moisture and lift seems to be
manifesting itself in a layer of clouds forming over eastern Kansas
and western Missouri. Given that this area matches the area of lift
depicted, have maintained chance POPs along the western portion of
the forecast area. This activity is expected to diminish by noon as
warm air aloft spreads into the area, capping the atmosphere. This
should result in a warmer, but still seasonal, day as low level
moisture increases.

The next good chance for precipitation will then arrive late
tonight, and even then, mainly across northern Missouri, as the
upper shortwave trough and associated surface low track from the
Central High Plains into the Mid-Missouri Valley. Models are in good
agreement tracking the surface low north of the forecast area and
focusing the LLJ to the north of Missouri. This implies that the best
precipitation chances and highest rainfall amounts will be north of
the forecast area, and quite possibly north of I-80. None- the-less,
precipitable water values climb to over 2" in northern and as the
front pushes into and through the area, any showers or storms that do
develop in the area could produce localized very heavy rainfall. The
threat of severe storms during the day friday looks low at this time.
But instability may be very high, if the NAM verifies, so there may
be some initially robust updrafts. However sheer looks week as the
strong dynamics are departing to the northeast with the upper
shortwave. The GFS is much weaker with the instability with a similar
scenario regarding the sheer. So there remains some uncertainty still
with the degree of destabilization and resulting intensity of any
convection. Scattered showers and storms may persist overnight as the
front moves east, but conditions look to dry out for Saturday.

The air mass moving into the region isn`t dramatically different from
the one it`s replacing. As a result, a slight downward trend in
temperatures and dewpoints is expected. So highs in the low to mid
80s look reasonable at this point. For the rest of the extended, dry
conditions will prevail as the upper ridge moves east. There looks
to be some weakness in the ridge over the Ohio and Mississippi
Valleys and this seems to blunt some of our warming up potential.
But given increasing thickness values, warming temperatures aloft and
southerly flow, highs should climb back into the upper 80s to the
lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 548 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Thunderstorms developed rapidly this morning but their motions are
nearly north to south. So storms west of the terminals won`t really
have an impact. Rather, it will take new development further east to
cause an impact at any of the terminals. For now, it looks like
storms have the greatest chance of moving into the KMKC and KIXD
terminals. So have included a TSRA mention over the next few hours.
Otherwise, convection looks scattered enough to keep a VCTS group
going through late this morning for the other sites. Convection
should diminish by late morning and give way to VFR conditions with
southerly winds. There will be another chance for storms late
tonight. Timing of this may be after midnight so for now have just
carried a VCTS for the overnight period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB



000
FXUS63 KLSX 270847
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
347 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING...OUR REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A TROF
OVER THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE DOMINATING THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS AT THE UPPER LEVELS...RESULTING IN N-NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR
REGION.  AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BUT STILL EXERTED STRONG INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION...PROVIDING A VERY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.  SATELLITE DATA SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES FOR OUR REGION.  TEMPERATURES AT MOST LOCALES WERE IN
THE 50S.

N-NW FLOW ALOFT ABSENT OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PERSIST
TODAY...AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MOVE AWAY BUT SHOULD RETAIN A DOMINANT INFLUENCE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE THE CURRENT DRY ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...WITH MINIMAL ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...AND LEAVE US WITH
ANOTHER DRY DAY.

THE SLOW BUT INEXORABLE DECLINE IN THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE`S
INFLUENCE WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT A BIT IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH A FORECAST ABOUT 1-2F HIGHER THAN PERSISTENCE FAVORED WHICH
LEANS TOWARDS THE MAV MOS NUMBERS:  AROUND 80 IN IL AND LOWER 80S IN
MO.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

TONIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME SO THINK IT WILL
BE DRY WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

WITH COLD FRONT, UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND DECENT LOW LEVEL JET
APPROACHING THE REGION ON FRIDAY, WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
THE INCREASE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH REGION, THOUGH DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE AS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

FRONT TO WEAKEN AS IT EXITS REGION, WASHING OUT TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
ALSO, SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND FRONT IS RATHER WEAK WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO
IT LEAVES OUR AREA IN LIMBO, WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY A BIT WARMER
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. ALSO, WITH WEAK
FLOW OVERHEAD AND WEAK SHORTWAVES SLIDING THROUGH REGION, COULD SEE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY UNTIL EXTENDED MODELS GET A BETTER
GRASP ON THE PATTERN THAT WILL EVOLVE OVER REGION. ANOTHER FLY IN
OINTMENT IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH "ERIKA" AS IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHEASTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ITS AFFECTS ON THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION.

BYRD
&&

.AVIATION: (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING SINCE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME PATCHY RIVER
FOG. NOTICED RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WERE A LITTLE HIGHER AT
KCPS THIS EVENING AND MOS GUIDANCE IS GIVING THEM SOME FOG, SO
WILL TEMPO MVFR FOG IN THE 06Z UPDATE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ON THURSDAY WITH WIND BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WIND...BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY ON THURSDAY.

CARNEY
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 270847
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
347 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING...OUR REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A TROF
OVER THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE DOMINATING THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS AT THE UPPER LEVELS...RESULTING IN N-NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR
REGION.  AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BUT STILL EXERTED STRONG INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION...PROVIDING A VERY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.  SATELLITE DATA SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES FOR OUR REGION.  TEMPERATURES AT MOST LOCALES WERE IN
THE 50S.

N-NW FLOW ALOFT ABSENT OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PERSIST
TODAY...AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MOVE AWAY BUT SHOULD RETAIN A DOMINANT INFLUENCE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE THE CURRENT DRY ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...WITH MINIMAL ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...AND LEAVE US WITH
ANOTHER DRY DAY.

THE SLOW BUT INEXORABLE DECLINE IN THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE`S
INFLUENCE WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT A BIT IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH A FORECAST ABOUT 1-2F HIGHER THAN PERSISTENCE FAVORED WHICH
LEANS TOWARDS THE MAV MOS NUMBERS:  AROUND 80 IN IL AND LOWER 80S IN
MO.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

TONIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME SO THINK IT WILL
BE DRY WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

WITH COLD FRONT, UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND DECENT LOW LEVEL JET
APPROACHING THE REGION ON FRIDAY, WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
THE INCREASE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH REGION, THOUGH DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE AS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

FRONT TO WEAKEN AS IT EXITS REGION, WASHING OUT TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
ALSO, SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND FRONT IS RATHER WEAK WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO
IT LEAVES OUR AREA IN LIMBO, WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY A BIT WARMER
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. ALSO, WITH WEAK
FLOW OVERHEAD AND WEAK SHORTWAVES SLIDING THROUGH REGION, COULD SEE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY UNTIL EXTENDED MODELS GET A BETTER
GRASP ON THE PATTERN THAT WILL EVOLVE OVER REGION. ANOTHER FLY IN
OINTMENT IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH "ERIKA" AS IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHEASTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ITS AFFECTS ON THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION.

BYRD
&&

.AVIATION: (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING SINCE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME PATCHY RIVER
FOG. NOTICED RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WERE A LITTLE HIGHER AT
KCPS THIS EVENING AND MOS GUIDANCE IS GIVING THEM SOME FOG, SO
WILL TEMPO MVFR FOG IN THE 06Z UPDATE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ON THURSDAY WITH WIND BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WIND...BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY ON THURSDAY.

CARNEY
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 270847
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
347 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING...OUR REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A TROF
OVER THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE DOMINATING THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS AT THE UPPER LEVELS...RESULTING IN N-NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR
REGION.  AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BUT STILL EXERTED STRONG INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION...PROVIDING A VERY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.  SATELLITE DATA SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES FOR OUR REGION.  TEMPERATURES AT MOST LOCALES WERE IN
THE 50S.

N-NW FLOW ALOFT ABSENT OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PERSIST
TODAY...AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MOVE AWAY BUT SHOULD RETAIN A DOMINANT INFLUENCE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE THE CURRENT DRY ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...WITH MINIMAL ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...AND LEAVE US WITH
ANOTHER DRY DAY.

THE SLOW BUT INEXORABLE DECLINE IN THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE`S
INFLUENCE WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT A BIT IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH A FORECAST ABOUT 1-2F HIGHER THAN PERSISTENCE FAVORED WHICH
LEANS TOWARDS THE MAV MOS NUMBERS:  AROUND 80 IN IL AND LOWER 80S IN
MO.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

TONIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME SO THINK IT WILL
BE DRY WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

WITH COLD FRONT, UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND DECENT LOW LEVEL JET
APPROACHING THE REGION ON FRIDAY, WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
THE INCREASE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH REGION, THOUGH DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE AS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

FRONT TO WEAKEN AS IT EXITS REGION, WASHING OUT TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
ALSO, SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND FRONT IS RATHER WEAK WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO
IT LEAVES OUR AREA IN LIMBO, WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY A BIT WARMER
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. ALSO, WITH WEAK
FLOW OVERHEAD AND WEAK SHORTWAVES SLIDING THROUGH REGION, COULD SEE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY UNTIL EXTENDED MODELS GET A BETTER
GRASP ON THE PATTERN THAT WILL EVOLVE OVER REGION. ANOTHER FLY IN
OINTMENT IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH "ERIKA" AS IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHEASTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ITS AFFECTS ON THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION.

BYRD
&&

.AVIATION: (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING SINCE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME PATCHY RIVER
FOG. NOTICED RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WERE A LITTLE HIGHER AT
KCPS THIS EVENING AND MOS GUIDANCE IS GIVING THEM SOME FOG, SO
WILL TEMPO MVFR FOG IN THE 06Z UPDATE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ON THURSDAY WITH WIND BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WIND...BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY ON THURSDAY.

CARNEY
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 270847
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
347 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING...OUR REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A TROF
OVER THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE DOMINATING THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS AT THE UPPER LEVELS...RESULTING IN N-NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR
REGION.  AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BUT STILL EXERTED STRONG INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION...PROVIDING A VERY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.  SATELLITE DATA SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES FOR OUR REGION.  TEMPERATURES AT MOST LOCALES WERE IN
THE 50S.

N-NW FLOW ALOFT ABSENT OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PERSIST
TODAY...AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MOVE AWAY BUT SHOULD RETAIN A DOMINANT INFLUENCE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE THE CURRENT DRY ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...WITH MINIMAL ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...AND LEAVE US WITH
ANOTHER DRY DAY.

THE SLOW BUT INEXORABLE DECLINE IN THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE`S
INFLUENCE WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT A BIT IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH A FORECAST ABOUT 1-2F HIGHER THAN PERSISTENCE FAVORED WHICH
LEANS TOWARDS THE MAV MOS NUMBERS:  AROUND 80 IN IL AND LOWER 80S IN
MO.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

TONIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME SO THINK IT WILL
BE DRY WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

WITH COLD FRONT, UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND DECENT LOW LEVEL JET
APPROACHING THE REGION ON FRIDAY, WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
THE INCREASE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH REGION, THOUGH DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE AS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

FRONT TO WEAKEN AS IT EXITS REGION, WASHING OUT TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
ALSO, SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND FRONT IS RATHER WEAK WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO
IT LEAVES OUR AREA IN LIMBO, WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY A BIT WARMER
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. ALSO, WITH WEAK
FLOW OVERHEAD AND WEAK SHORTWAVES SLIDING THROUGH REGION, COULD SEE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY UNTIL EXTENDED MODELS GET A BETTER
GRASP ON THE PATTERN THAT WILL EVOLVE OVER REGION. ANOTHER FLY IN
OINTMENT IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH "ERIKA" AS IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHEASTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ITS AFFECTS ON THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION.

BYRD
&&

.AVIATION: (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING SINCE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME PATCHY RIVER
FOG. NOTICED RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WERE A LITTLE HIGHER AT
KCPS THIS EVENING AND MOS GUIDANCE IS GIVING THEM SOME FOG, SO
WILL TEMPO MVFR FOG IN THE 06Z UPDATE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ON THURSDAY WITH WIND BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WIND...BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY ON THURSDAY.

CARNEY
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KEAX 270832
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
332 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

There are a couple of chance for showers and storms over the next
couple of days as a shortwave trough moves over the top of the
longwave ridge over the western half of the country. The first chance
will be over eastern Kansas and western Missouri this morning. An
area of strong isentropic ascent should lift east over eastern
Kansas/western Missouri through late morning. Deeper, richer
moisture, in association with the strong lift may lead to the
development of showers and storms. Convection allowing models are
very robust/aggressive with this development, while the coarser scale
NAM and GFS aren`t, even though some precipitation is generated.
Observationally, this mid-level moisture and lift seems to be
manifesting itself in a layer of clouds forming over eastern Kansas
and western Missouri. Given that this area matches the area of lift
depicted, have maintained chance POPs along the western portion of
the forecast area. This activity is expected to diminish by noon as
warm air aloft spreads into the area, capping the atmosphere. This
should result in a warmer, but still seasonal, day as low level
moisture increases.

The next good chance for precipitation will then arrive late
tonight, and even then, mainly across northern Missouri, as the
upper shortwave trough and associated surface low track from the
Central High Plains into the Mid-Missouri Valley. Models are in good
agreement tracking the surface low north of the forecast area and
focusing the LLJ to the north of Missouri. This implies that the best
precipitation chances and highest rainfall amounts will be north of
the forecast area, and quite possibly north of I-80. None- the-less,
precipitable water values climb to over 2" in northern and as the
front pushes into and through the area, any showers or storms that do
develop in the area could produce localized very heavy rainfall. The
threat of severe storms during the day friday looks low at this time.
But instability may be very high, if the NAM verifies, so there may
be some initially robust updrafts. However sheer looks week as the
strong dynamics are departing to the northeast with the upper
shortwave. The GFS is much weaker with the instability with a similar
scenario regarding the sheer. So there remains some uncertainty still
with the degree of destabilization and resulting intensity of any
convection. Scattered showers and storms may persist overnight as the
front moves east, but conditions look to dry out for Saturday.

The air mass moving into the region isn`t dramatically different from
the one it`s replacing. As a result, a slight downward trend in
temperatures and dewpoints is expected. So highs in the low to mid
80s look reasonable at this point. For the rest of the extended, dry
conditions will prevail as the upper ridge moves east. There looks
to be some weakness in the ridge over the Ohio and Mississippi
Valleys and this seems to blunt some of our warming up potential.
But given increasing thickness values, warming temperatures aloft and
southerly flow, highs should climb back into the upper 80s to the
lower 90s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across NW
NE overnight and move southward into eastern KS by 12-14Z. While
current model analysis shows most of the expected activity to remain
in eastern KS, there is the chance that some convection may work its
way into western MO. Southerly winds will increase tomorrow
afternoon as pressure gradient increases ahead of an approaching
front. Winds will decrease towards evening but precipitation chances
will increase late in the prevailing TAF period as front nears the
region.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...PMM



000
FXUS63 KEAX 270832
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
332 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

There are a couple of chance for showers and storms over the next
couple of days as a shortwave trough moves over the top of the
longwave ridge over the western half of the country. The first chance
will be over eastern Kansas and western Missouri this morning. An
area of strong isentropic ascent should lift east over eastern
Kansas/western Missouri through late morning. Deeper, richer
moisture, in association with the strong lift may lead to the
development of showers and storms. Convection allowing models are
very robust/aggressive with this development, while the coarser scale
NAM and GFS aren`t, even though some precipitation is generated.
Observationally, this mid-level moisture and lift seems to be
manifesting itself in a layer of clouds forming over eastern Kansas
and western Missouri. Given that this area matches the area of lift
depicted, have maintained chance POPs along the western portion of
the forecast area. This activity is expected to diminish by noon as
warm air aloft spreads into the area, capping the atmosphere. This
should result in a warmer, but still seasonal, day as low level
moisture increases.

The next good chance for precipitation will then arrive late
tonight, and even then, mainly across northern Missouri, as the
upper shortwave trough and associated surface low track from the
Central High Plains into the Mid-Missouri Valley. Models are in good
agreement tracking the surface low north of the forecast area and
focusing the LLJ to the north of Missouri. This implies that the best
precipitation chances and highest rainfall amounts will be north of
the forecast area, and quite possibly north of I-80. None- the-less,
precipitable water values climb to over 2" in northern and as the
front pushes into and through the area, any showers or storms that do
develop in the area could produce localized very heavy rainfall. The
threat of severe storms during the day friday looks low at this time.
But instability may be very high, if the NAM verifies, so there may
be some initially robust updrafts. However sheer looks week as the
strong dynamics are departing to the northeast with the upper
shortwave. The GFS is much weaker with the instability with a similar
scenario regarding the sheer. So there remains some uncertainty still
with the degree of destabilization and resulting intensity of any
convection. Scattered showers and storms may persist overnight as the
front moves east, but conditions look to dry out for Saturday.

The air mass moving into the region isn`t dramatically different from
the one it`s replacing. As a result, a slight downward trend in
temperatures and dewpoints is expected. So highs in the low to mid
80s look reasonable at this point. For the rest of the extended, dry
conditions will prevail as the upper ridge moves east. There looks
to be some weakness in the ridge over the Ohio and Mississippi
Valleys and this seems to blunt some of our warming up potential.
But given increasing thickness values, warming temperatures aloft and
southerly flow, highs should climb back into the upper 80s to the
lower 90s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across NW
NE overnight and move southward into eastern KS by 12-14Z. While
current model analysis shows most of the expected activity to remain
in eastern KS, there is the chance that some convection may work its
way into western MO. Southerly winds will increase tomorrow
afternoon as pressure gradient increases ahead of an approaching
front. Winds will decrease towards evening but precipitation chances
will increase late in the prevailing TAF period as front nears the
region.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...PMM




000
FXUS63 KSGF 270725
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
225 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 0225 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Another pleasant night across the Ozarks region with temperatures
in the mid 50s over the eastern Ozarks to the mid 60s in the west.
Generally seeing a clear sky across the area.

A thunderstorm complex has developed over South Dakota on top of
the ridge axis in an area where upper level energy was moving in
from the west and beginning to break down that ridge. An
instability axis extends almost due south from the current
convective activity through Nebraska and Kansas. HRRR continues to
develop convection towards daybreak over far eastern Kansas on the
edge of this instability in an area of isentropic upglide. Will
need to monitor for this development in a couple/few hours.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0225 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

If convection does indeed develop over the far western portion of
the CWA in southeast Kansas and far western Missouri early this
morning, it will have trouble getting much further east. Much
drier and more stable air exists over most of our CWA, so any
potential of convection today will likely be this morning and in
our far western CWA.

Shortwave energy will continue to track eastward today and tonight
with the main energy remaining north of our CWA. Will maintain low
end precipitation chances over northwest 1/3 of the CWA, but
expecting most areas to remain dry tonight as well.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 0225 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Front remains to our west on Friday with the best energy from the
upper level shortwave still off to the north. Again not expecting
much in the way of precipitation coverage, with slight if any
chances existing in northwest portion of the CWA.

The surface front and shortwave energy will begin to push through
the area Friday night and continue into Saturday, but
shower/thunderstorm coverage looks to remain scattered in nature
with this system, and it looks like not everyone will get
precipitation.

Upper level ridging begins to build back into the area by Saturday
night and precipitation chances through the remainder of the
extended period look to be minimal at this time. Will also see
temperatures rise back to more normal readings for this time of
year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR conditions are expected through Thursday evening. A few
thunderstorms will be possible around sunrise on Thursday across
extreme southeastern Kansas, but they are expected to remain west
of the Joplin aerodrome at this time. Variable winds tonight will
become southeast on Thursday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann




000
FXUS63 KSGF 270725
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
225 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 0225 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Another pleasant night across the Ozarks region with temperatures
in the mid 50s over the eastern Ozarks to the mid 60s in the west.
Generally seeing a clear sky across the area.

A thunderstorm complex has developed over South Dakota on top of
the ridge axis in an area where upper level energy was moving in
from the west and beginning to break down that ridge. An
instability axis extends almost due south from the current
convective activity through Nebraska and Kansas. HRRR continues to
develop convection towards daybreak over far eastern Kansas on the
edge of this instability in an area of isentropic upglide. Will
need to monitor for this development in a couple/few hours.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0225 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

If convection does indeed develop over the far western portion of
the CWA in southeast Kansas and far western Missouri early this
morning, it will have trouble getting much further east. Much
drier and more stable air exists over most of our CWA, so any
potential of convection today will likely be this morning and in
our far western CWA.

Shortwave energy will continue to track eastward today and tonight
with the main energy remaining north of our CWA. Will maintain low
end precipitation chances over northwest 1/3 of the CWA, but
expecting most areas to remain dry tonight as well.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 0225 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Front remains to our west on Friday with the best energy from the
upper level shortwave still off to the north. Again not expecting
much in the way of precipitation coverage, with slight if any
chances existing in northwest portion of the CWA.

The surface front and shortwave energy will begin to push through
the area Friday night and continue into Saturday, but
shower/thunderstorm coverage looks to remain scattered in nature
with this system, and it looks like not everyone will get
precipitation.

Upper level ridging begins to build back into the area by Saturday
night and precipitation chances through the remainder of the
extended period look to be minimal at this time. Will also see
temperatures rise back to more normal readings for this time of
year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR conditions are expected through Thursday evening. A few
thunderstorms will be possible around sunrise on Thursday across
extreme southeastern Kansas, but they are expected to remain west
of the Joplin aerodrome at this time. Variable winds tonight will
become southeast on Thursday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann




000
FXUS63 KSGF 270725
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
225 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 0225 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Another pleasant night across the Ozarks region with temperatures
in the mid 50s over the eastern Ozarks to the mid 60s in the west.
Generally seeing a clear sky across the area.

A thunderstorm complex has developed over South Dakota on top of
the ridge axis in an area where upper level energy was moving in
from the west and beginning to break down that ridge. An
instability axis extends almost due south from the current
convective activity through Nebraska and Kansas. HRRR continues to
develop convection towards daybreak over far eastern Kansas on the
edge of this instability in an area of isentropic upglide. Will
need to monitor for this development in a couple/few hours.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0225 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

If convection does indeed develop over the far western portion of
the CWA in southeast Kansas and far western Missouri early this
morning, it will have trouble getting much further east. Much
drier and more stable air exists over most of our CWA, so any
potential of convection today will likely be this morning and in
our far western CWA.

Shortwave energy will continue to track eastward today and tonight
with the main energy remaining north of our CWA. Will maintain low
end precipitation chances over northwest 1/3 of the CWA, but
expecting most areas to remain dry tonight as well.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 0225 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Front remains to our west on Friday with the best energy from the
upper level shortwave still off to the north. Again not expecting
much in the way of precipitation coverage, with slight if any
chances existing in northwest portion of the CWA.

The surface front and shortwave energy will begin to push through
the area Friday night and continue into Saturday, but
shower/thunderstorm coverage looks to remain scattered in nature
with this system, and it looks like not everyone will get
precipitation.

Upper level ridging begins to build back into the area by Saturday
night and precipitation chances through the remainder of the
extended period look to be minimal at this time. Will also see
temperatures rise back to more normal readings for this time of
year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR conditions are expected through Thursday evening. A few
thunderstorms will be possible around sunrise on Thursday across
extreme southeastern Kansas, but they are expected to remain west
of the Joplin aerodrome at this time. Variable winds tonight will
become southeast on Thursday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann



000
FXUS63 KSGF 270510
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1210 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 0303 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Surface high pressure remains over the central U.S. allowing mostly
sunny skies and pleasant late August temperatures, with readings
in the upper 70s to lower 80s during the mid afternoon hours.

An upper level ridge remains centered over the Rocky mountain
region, with northwest flow aloft occurring over the region. An
upper level disturbance and lift will ride the northwest flow and
shower and storm develop is possible across Nebraska and northern
Kansas tonight. If storms develop they would track south and
could clip extreme southeastern Kansas late tonight into Thursday
morning areas west of I-49. There is dry air in place across the
area that needs to so there are questions if the storms can
develop and just how far east they will develop. If they can
develop and affect the area they will dissipate fairly quickly
Thursday morning.

An upper level shortwave will begin to spread into the plains on
Thursday and start to flatten the ridge some, but will remain well
west of the area on Thursday. Overall Thursday afternoon will be
fairly similar to what is occurring this afternoon expect cloud
cover will start to increase some.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 0303 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

The shortwave trough will continue to track east across the plains
Thursday night into Friday night pushing the area of surface high
pressure off to the east. Cannot rule out a thunderstorm Thursday
night and Friday across extreme southeastern Kansas and far
western Missouri with the approach of shortwave, but the better
chances will remain west of the area and most locations are
expected to remain dry.

Friday night into Saturday morning the shortwave trough and an
associated cold front will track east across the area with
scattered storms possible. No severe weather is expected as
instability will be limited in nature.

The upper level ridge will build back over the plains later this
weekend and start to spread east across the area the first half
of next week. Temperature will warm back to near normal with highs
in the upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR conditions are expected through Thursday evening. A few
thunderstorms will be possible around sunrise on Thursday across
extreme southeastern Kansas, but they are expected to remain west
of the Joplin aerodrome at this time. Variable winds tonight will
become southeast on Thursday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann




000
FXUS63 KSGF 270510
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1210 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 0303 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Surface high pressure remains over the central U.S. allowing mostly
sunny skies and pleasant late August temperatures, with readings
in the upper 70s to lower 80s during the mid afternoon hours.

An upper level ridge remains centered over the Rocky mountain
region, with northwest flow aloft occurring over the region. An
upper level disturbance and lift will ride the northwest flow and
shower and storm develop is possible across Nebraska and northern
Kansas tonight. If storms develop they would track south and
could clip extreme southeastern Kansas late tonight into Thursday
morning areas west of I-49. There is dry air in place across the
area that needs to so there are questions if the storms can
develop and just how far east they will develop. If they can
develop and affect the area they will dissipate fairly quickly
Thursday morning.

An upper level shortwave will begin to spread into the plains on
Thursday and start to flatten the ridge some, but will remain well
west of the area on Thursday. Overall Thursday afternoon will be
fairly similar to what is occurring this afternoon expect cloud
cover will start to increase some.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 0303 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

The shortwave trough will continue to track east across the plains
Thursday night into Friday night pushing the area of surface high
pressure off to the east. Cannot rule out a thunderstorm Thursday
night and Friday across extreme southeastern Kansas and far
western Missouri with the approach of shortwave, but the better
chances will remain west of the area and most locations are
expected to remain dry.

Friday night into Saturday morning the shortwave trough and an
associated cold front will track east across the area with
scattered storms possible. No severe weather is expected as
instability will be limited in nature.

The upper level ridge will build back over the plains later this
weekend and start to spread east across the area the first half
of next week. Temperature will warm back to near normal with highs
in the upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR conditions are expected through Thursday evening. A few
thunderstorms will be possible around sunrise on Thursday across
extreme southeastern Kansas, but they are expected to remain west
of the Joplin aerodrome at this time. Variable winds tonight will
become southeast on Thursday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann



000
FXUS63 KSGF 270510
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1210 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 0303 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Surface high pressure remains over the central U.S. allowing mostly
sunny skies and pleasant late August temperatures, with readings
in the upper 70s to lower 80s during the mid afternoon hours.

An upper level ridge remains centered over the Rocky mountain
region, with northwest flow aloft occurring over the region. An
upper level disturbance and lift will ride the northwest flow and
shower and storm develop is possible across Nebraska and northern
Kansas tonight. If storms develop they would track south and
could clip extreme southeastern Kansas late tonight into Thursday
morning areas west of I-49. There is dry air in place across the
area that needs to so there are questions if the storms can
develop and just how far east they will develop. If they can
develop and affect the area they will dissipate fairly quickly
Thursday morning.

An upper level shortwave will begin to spread into the plains on
Thursday and start to flatten the ridge some, but will remain well
west of the area on Thursday. Overall Thursday afternoon will be
fairly similar to what is occurring this afternoon expect cloud
cover will start to increase some.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 0303 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

The shortwave trough will continue to track east across the plains
Thursday night into Friday night pushing the area of surface high
pressure off to the east. Cannot rule out a thunderstorm Thursday
night and Friday across extreme southeastern Kansas and far
western Missouri with the approach of shortwave, but the better
chances will remain west of the area and most locations are
expected to remain dry.

Friday night into Saturday morning the shortwave trough and an
associated cold front will track east across the area with
scattered storms possible. No severe weather is expected as
instability will be limited in nature.

The upper level ridge will build back over the plains later this
weekend and start to spread east across the area the first half
of next week. Temperature will warm back to near normal with highs
in the upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR conditions are expected through Thursday evening. A few
thunderstorms will be possible around sunrise on Thursday across
extreme southeastern Kansas, but they are expected to remain west
of the Joplin aerodrome at this time. Variable winds tonight will
become southeast on Thursday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann



000
FXUS63 KSGF 270510
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1210 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 0303 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Surface high pressure remains over the central U.S. allowing mostly
sunny skies and pleasant late August temperatures, with readings
in the upper 70s to lower 80s during the mid afternoon hours.

An upper level ridge remains centered over the Rocky mountain
region, with northwest flow aloft occurring over the region. An
upper level disturbance and lift will ride the northwest flow and
shower and storm develop is possible across Nebraska and northern
Kansas tonight. If storms develop they would track south and
could clip extreme southeastern Kansas late tonight into Thursday
morning areas west of I-49. There is dry air in place across the
area that needs to so there are questions if the storms can
develop and just how far east they will develop. If they can
develop and affect the area they will dissipate fairly quickly
Thursday morning.

An upper level shortwave will begin to spread into the plains on
Thursday and start to flatten the ridge some, but will remain well
west of the area on Thursday. Overall Thursday afternoon will be
fairly similar to what is occurring this afternoon expect cloud
cover will start to increase some.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 0303 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

The shortwave trough will continue to track east across the plains
Thursday night into Friday night pushing the area of surface high
pressure off to the east. Cannot rule out a thunderstorm Thursday
night and Friday across extreme southeastern Kansas and far
western Missouri with the approach of shortwave, but the better
chances will remain west of the area and most locations are
expected to remain dry.

Friday night into Saturday morning the shortwave trough and an
associated cold front will track east across the area with
scattered storms possible. No severe weather is expected as
instability will be limited in nature.

The upper level ridge will build back over the plains later this
weekend and start to spread east across the area the first half
of next week. Temperature will warm back to near normal with highs
in the upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR conditions are expected through Thursday evening. A few
thunderstorms will be possible around sunrise on Thursday across
extreme southeastern Kansas, but they are expected to remain west
of the Joplin aerodrome at this time. Variable winds tonight will
become southeast on Thursday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann




000
FXUS63 KEAX 270437
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1137 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Water vapor imagery depicts a broad mid-level ridge to the west
which is providing northwest flow aloft over the CWA. Surface high
pressure to the northeast will continue to lead to a drying trend
through Wednesday evening with surface temperatures peaking in the
low to mid 80s. The ridge will give way to a short-wave developing
on the crest of the ridge as it works its way to the east. This will
bring about the chance for mid to late week storms in the short-
term. A surface low is progged to develop over western Nebraska this
evening before undergoing further development as it approaches
eastern Nebraska through Thursday. Warm air advection will accompany
the approaching system, with weak isentropic ascent across eastern
Kansas and western Missouri setting up by early Thursday morning. A
few thunderstorms are expected within this region, though will need
to overcome dry air near the surface for measurable precipitation
Thursday morning. The aforementioned wave will continue to develop
Thursday, while at the surface, a cold front will sweep through
western Missouri late Friday morning. The best chance for widespread
convection during the near-term forecast will occur along the
boundary through the morning and afternoon hours on Friday. At this
point, with limited moisture and instability, severe weather is not
anticipated along the boundary. The cold front will slowly push
through the CWA with measurable precipitation across the boundary
through Friday. Heavier precipitation amounts are likely within
northern Missouri, as the greatest forcing for storms will reside
primarily over Iowa. By late Friday and into Saturday morning, cooler
air behind the front will bring about a temporary cooling period
before mid-level ridging once again develops to the west.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

By the end of the week, into the weekend influence from the mid
level ridge will once again become rather dominant, which will yield
above normal temperatures for next week. Expect temperatures to be
in the upper 80s to lower 90s through at least mid week. Will
continue with a dry forecast, as there does not appear to be any
obvious lifting mechanism for rain chances. Mid level flow looks to
remain rather weak through mid to late next week, which should even
diminish any chances for ridge-rider type systems. All in all, it
looks rather warm and dry for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across NW
NE overnight and move southward into eastern KS by 12-14Z. While
current model analysis shows most of the expected activity to remain
in eastern KS, there is the chance that some convection may work its
way into western MO. Southerly winds will increase tomorrow
afternoon as pressure gradient increases ahead of an approaching
front. Winds will decrease towards evening but precipitation chances
will increase late in the prevailing TAF period as front nears the
region.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Welsh
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...PMM




000
FXUS63 KEAX 270437
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1137 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Water vapor imagery depicts a broad mid-level ridge to the west
which is providing northwest flow aloft over the CWA. Surface high
pressure to the northeast will continue to lead to a drying trend
through Wednesday evening with surface temperatures peaking in the
low to mid 80s. The ridge will give way to a short-wave developing
on the crest of the ridge as it works its way to the east. This will
bring about the chance for mid to late week storms in the short-
term. A surface low is progged to develop over western Nebraska this
evening before undergoing further development as it approaches
eastern Nebraska through Thursday. Warm air advection will accompany
the approaching system, with weak isentropic ascent across eastern
Kansas and western Missouri setting up by early Thursday morning. A
few thunderstorms are expected within this region, though will need
to overcome dry air near the surface for measurable precipitation
Thursday morning. The aforementioned wave will continue to develop
Thursday, while at the surface, a cold front will sweep through
western Missouri late Friday morning. The best chance for widespread
convection during the near-term forecast will occur along the
boundary through the morning and afternoon hours on Friday. At this
point, with limited moisture and instability, severe weather is not
anticipated along the boundary. The cold front will slowly push
through the CWA with measurable precipitation across the boundary
through Friday. Heavier precipitation amounts are likely within
northern Missouri, as the greatest forcing for storms will reside
primarily over Iowa. By late Friday and into Saturday morning, cooler
air behind the front will bring about a temporary cooling period
before mid-level ridging once again develops to the west.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

By the end of the week, into the weekend influence from the mid
level ridge will once again become rather dominant, which will yield
above normal temperatures for next week. Expect temperatures to be
in the upper 80s to lower 90s through at least mid week. Will
continue with a dry forecast, as there does not appear to be any
obvious lifting mechanism for rain chances. Mid level flow looks to
remain rather weak through mid to late next week, which should even
diminish any chances for ridge-rider type systems. All in all, it
looks rather warm and dry for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across NW
NE overnight and move southward into eastern KS by 12-14Z. While
current model analysis shows most of the expected activity to remain
in eastern KS, there is the chance that some convection may work its
way into western MO. Southerly winds will increase tomorrow
afternoon as pressure gradient increases ahead of an approaching
front. Winds will decrease towards evening but precipitation chances
will increase late in the prevailing TAF period as front nears the
region.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Welsh
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...PMM




000
FXUS63 KEAX 270437
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1137 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Water vapor imagery depicts a broad mid-level ridge to the west
which is providing northwest flow aloft over the CWA. Surface high
pressure to the northeast will continue to lead to a drying trend
through Wednesday evening with surface temperatures peaking in the
low to mid 80s. The ridge will give way to a short-wave developing
on the crest of the ridge as it works its way to the east. This will
bring about the chance for mid to late week storms in the short-
term. A surface low is progged to develop over western Nebraska this
evening before undergoing further development as it approaches
eastern Nebraska through Thursday. Warm air advection will accompany
the approaching system, with weak isentropic ascent across eastern
Kansas and western Missouri setting up by early Thursday morning. A
few thunderstorms are expected within this region, though will need
to overcome dry air near the surface for measurable precipitation
Thursday morning. The aforementioned wave will continue to develop
Thursday, while at the surface, a cold front will sweep through
western Missouri late Friday morning. The best chance for widespread
convection during the near-term forecast will occur along the
boundary through the morning and afternoon hours on Friday. At this
point, with limited moisture and instability, severe weather is not
anticipated along the boundary. The cold front will slowly push
through the CWA with measurable precipitation across the boundary
through Friday. Heavier precipitation amounts are likely within
northern Missouri, as the greatest forcing for storms will reside
primarily over Iowa. By late Friday and into Saturday morning, cooler
air behind the front will bring about a temporary cooling period
before mid-level ridging once again develops to the west.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

By the end of the week, into the weekend influence from the mid
level ridge will once again become rather dominant, which will yield
above normal temperatures for next week. Expect temperatures to be
in the upper 80s to lower 90s through at least mid week. Will
continue with a dry forecast, as there does not appear to be any
obvious lifting mechanism for rain chances. Mid level flow looks to
remain rather weak through mid to late next week, which should even
diminish any chances for ridge-rider type systems. All in all, it
looks rather warm and dry for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across NW
NE overnight and move southward into eastern KS by 12-14Z. While
current model analysis shows most of the expected activity to remain
in eastern KS, there is the chance that some convection may work its
way into western MO. Southerly winds will increase tomorrow
afternoon as pressure gradient increases ahead of an approaching
front. Winds will decrease towards evening but precipitation chances
will increase late in the prevailing TAF period as front nears the
region.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Welsh
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...PMM




000
FXUS63 KEAX 270437
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1137 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Water vapor imagery depicts a broad mid-level ridge to the west
which is providing northwest flow aloft over the CWA. Surface high
pressure to the northeast will continue to lead to a drying trend
through Wednesday evening with surface temperatures peaking in the
low to mid 80s. The ridge will give way to a short-wave developing
on the crest of the ridge as it works its way to the east. This will
bring about the chance for mid to late week storms in the short-
term. A surface low is progged to develop over western Nebraska this
evening before undergoing further development as it approaches
eastern Nebraska through Thursday. Warm air advection will accompany
the approaching system, with weak isentropic ascent across eastern
Kansas and western Missouri setting up by early Thursday morning. A
few thunderstorms are expected within this region, though will need
to overcome dry air near the surface for measurable precipitation
Thursday morning. The aforementioned wave will continue to develop
Thursday, while at the surface, a cold front will sweep through
western Missouri late Friday morning. The best chance for widespread
convection during the near-term forecast will occur along the
boundary through the morning and afternoon hours on Friday. At this
point, with limited moisture and instability, severe weather is not
anticipated along the boundary. The cold front will slowly push
through the CWA with measurable precipitation across the boundary
through Friday. Heavier precipitation amounts are likely within
northern Missouri, as the greatest forcing for storms will reside
primarily over Iowa. By late Friday and into Saturday morning, cooler
air behind the front will bring about a temporary cooling period
before mid-level ridging once again develops to the west.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

By the end of the week, into the weekend influence from the mid
level ridge will once again become rather dominant, which will yield
above normal temperatures for next week. Expect temperatures to be
in the upper 80s to lower 90s through at least mid week. Will
continue with a dry forecast, as there does not appear to be any
obvious lifting mechanism for rain chances. Mid level flow looks to
remain rather weak through mid to late next week, which should even
diminish any chances for ridge-rider type systems. All in all, it
looks rather warm and dry for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across NW
NE overnight and move southward into eastern KS by 12-14Z. While
current model analysis shows most of the expected activity to remain
in eastern KS, there is the chance that some convection may work its
way into western MO. Southerly winds will increase tomorrow
afternoon as pressure gradient increases ahead of an approaching
front. Winds will decrease towards evening but precipitation chances
will increase late in the prevailing TAF period as front nears the
region.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Welsh
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...PMM




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