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000
FXUS63 KSGF 231735
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1235 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A very dry air mass is in place across the forecast area early
this morning with temperatures from the mid 40s to low 50s and dew
points in the low to mid 30s. 00z SGF sounding was showing only
0.29 in. of precipitable water. An upper level ridge was located
over the central U.S.

Some convection was developing to our west and northwest where a
low level jet has set up in advance of an approaching shortwave.

The upcoming forecast looks to be fairly active with a couple of
systems moving through. The first late tonight into Thursday will
be a quick mover and the system over the weekend will be much
slower to push through.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

For today, the precipitation occurring to our west and northwest
will likely not reach the ground within our forecast area as it
would encounter a very dry air mass currently in place.
Temperatures should warm up even more than yesterday as a
southerly wind will advect warmer temperatures into the region
ahead of the next shortwave. This shortwave will move into the
Plains late tonight and could bring some showers and thunderstorms
to the northwestern third of the area by 12z Thursday. We are not
expecting any severe weather through tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

The upper level shortwave and surface cold front will push through
the area Thursday and will interact with increasing Gulf moisture
over the area. Best instability will remain south of the area and
should limit our severe weather potential, but would not rule out
a few stronger to low end severe storms with large hail and strong
straight line winds as the main risks. Some heavy rain will likely
accompany the storm system with 0.75 to 1.00 expected over our
northern forecast area and around a half inch over the south.
Precipitation should end from northwest to southeast during the
afternoon to evening hours with the precipitation clearing our
southeastern most counties by 06z.

The surface front will push to the south of the area but will
begin to retreat as a warm front and back into the area on
Saturday as a deep upper level trough begins to develop in the
southwest U.S. Decent warm air advection and low level moisture
advection from the Gulf will occur on Saturday and may see an
initial round of convection developing in the vicinity of the warm
front. This will be the first chance of convection with this
system and could bring some strong to severe storms as fairly
strong instability develops during the day Saturday. Deep layer
shear will be lacking however with a ridge overhead.

Better chance for strong to severe storms will arrive late Sunday.
A blocking pattern begins to develop in the upper levels, with a
strong upper level low pushing into the central Plains. A dry line
and deep layer shear will be the primary foci for strong to severe
convection development Sunday afternoon and evening over
southeast Kansas and western Missouri, with this convection
shifting eastward across the forecast area during the night. Due to the
blocking pattern, the upper level system will be slow to move
eastward through the area and could see additional strong to
severe weather linger into Monday afternoon. The low is expected
to slowly move across the area Monday night and Tuesday with
additional showery activity lingering on the western side of the
low center possibly into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR flight conditions are forecast through the rest of the day
and into the overnight hours. Winds will remain out of the south
southeast through the next 24 hours as a frontal boundary
approaches from the west. Cloud cover will increase by tomorrow
morning, with a chance for thunderstorms across the region
generally after sunrise. Ceilings and visibilities near MVFR may
be possible with any thunderstorms that move into the region with
the frontal boundary.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Kardell






000
FXUS63 KSGF 231735
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1235 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A very dry air mass is in place across the forecast area early
this morning with temperatures from the mid 40s to low 50s and dew
points in the low to mid 30s. 00z SGF sounding was showing only
0.29 in. of precipitable water. An upper level ridge was located
over the central U.S.

Some convection was developing to our west and northwest where a
low level jet has set up in advance of an approaching shortwave.

The upcoming forecast looks to be fairly active with a couple of
systems moving through. The first late tonight into Thursday will
be a quick mover and the system over the weekend will be much
slower to push through.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

For today, the precipitation occurring to our west and northwest
will likely not reach the ground within our forecast area as it
would encounter a very dry air mass currently in place.
Temperatures should warm up even more than yesterday as a
southerly wind will advect warmer temperatures into the region
ahead of the next shortwave. This shortwave will move into the
Plains late tonight and could bring some showers and thunderstorms
to the northwestern third of the area by 12z Thursday. We are not
expecting any severe weather through tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

The upper level shortwave and surface cold front will push through
the area Thursday and will interact with increasing Gulf moisture
over the area. Best instability will remain south of the area and
should limit our severe weather potential, but would not rule out
a few stronger to low end severe storms with large hail and strong
straight line winds as the main risks. Some heavy rain will likely
accompany the storm system with 0.75 to 1.00 expected over our
northern forecast area and around a half inch over the south.
Precipitation should end from northwest to southeast during the
afternoon to evening hours with the precipitation clearing our
southeastern most counties by 06z.

The surface front will push to the south of the area but will
begin to retreat as a warm front and back into the area on
Saturday as a deep upper level trough begins to develop in the
southwest U.S. Decent warm air advection and low level moisture
advection from the Gulf will occur on Saturday and may see an
initial round of convection developing in the vicinity of the warm
front. This will be the first chance of convection with this
system and could bring some strong to severe storms as fairly
strong instability develops during the day Saturday. Deep layer
shear will be lacking however with a ridge overhead.

Better chance for strong to severe storms will arrive late Sunday.
A blocking pattern begins to develop in the upper levels, with a
strong upper level low pushing into the central Plains. A dry line
and deep layer shear will be the primary foci for strong to severe
convection development Sunday afternoon and evening over
southeast Kansas and western Missouri, with this convection
shifting eastward across the forecast area during the night. Due to the
blocking pattern, the upper level system will be slow to move
eastward through the area and could see additional strong to
severe weather linger into Monday afternoon. The low is expected
to slowly move across the area Monday night and Tuesday with
additional showery activity lingering on the western side of the
low center possibly into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR flight conditions are forecast through the rest of the day
and into the overnight hours. Winds will remain out of the south
southeast through the next 24 hours as a frontal boundary
approaches from the west. Cloud cover will increase by tomorrow
morning, with a chance for thunderstorms across the region
generally after sunrise. Ceilings and visibilities near MVFR may
be possible with any thunderstorms that move into the region with
the frontal boundary.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Kardell






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000
FXUS63 KLSX 231734
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1234 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Friday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Surface ridge extending from Wisconsin south/southwest into the
Mid-Mississippi Valley and back into east Texas will move east today
ahead of developing low pressure over the Great Plains.  Increasing
southerly low level flow will result.  All short-range model
guidance develops an area of warm advection showers over the eastern
Plains and pushes it east northeast into northwest Missouri and Iowa
today.  Looks possible that the southeast edge of the showers could
clip our area, but low level air is pretty dry according to the NAM,
GFS, and RUC and the primary thrust of moisture return will be back
over western Missouri so have only introduced slight chance PoPs
over our northwest counties.  We should see highs pretty close to
what occurred yesterday even with the warm advection since we`ll be
starting out the day cooler than Tuesday morning.  The exception
will be central Missouri where morning lows should be a bit warmer
than areas further east.

The shortwave currently digging across the Rockies will move out
into the Great Plains tonight and the resulting cold front will move
into northwest Missouri around 12Z.  Still looks like showers and
thunderstorms will be ongoing along and ahead of the front as it
moves through the CWFA on Thursday.  Diurnal heating will likely be
limited due to cloud cover and advancing precip from the west, so
instability still looks relatively weak.  While there should be
enough CAPE for thunderstorms, widespread severe weather does not
look likely at this time.  Stuck closer to the warmer MAV guidance
for highs since morning lows will be around 50 across the area and
15-20 degrees of rise should be attainable in warm advection this
time of year regardless of cloud cover.

Guidance is in good agreement with pushing the front through the
entire area shortly after 00Z.  Still have some lingering precip
east of the Mississippi River Thursday evening as the front exits,
but dry after midnight.  Pacific high builds across the region
Friday morning.  As opposed to a colder Canadian airmass, the
Pacific ridge should produce temperatures near or slightly above
normal in the upper 40s to low 50s Friday morning.  West-southwest
flow develops Friday morning as the high scoots quickly into the
Tennessee Valley so expect temperatures to rebound into the mid and
upper 70s.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

While the medium range guidance is coming into better agreement on
the overall synoptic pattern, the smaller scale is still unclear.
Generally, a secondary cold front will dip south across the Upper
Midwest driven south by the last vestiges of Thursday`s shortwave.
The front will stall somewhere across the Midwest on Saturday,
though models can`t make up their minds where.  GFS stalls the front
across south/southwest Missouri Saturday morning, while the ECMWF
stalls it out over northern Iowa.  The GEM is right about in the
middle stalling the front over northern Missouri.  All three models
have some low level baroclinicity over our area, whether it is the
primary baroclinic zone associated with the front (GFS/GEM) or a
secondary baroclinic zone left over from the Pacific airmass which
will be exiting to the east (EC).  Warm advection begins Saturday
morning with a 30+ kt low level jet pointed at this baroclinic zone
and all three models print out some light precip.  Have therefore
kept chance pops going in central Missouri, and would not be
surprised if subsequent shifts need to bump up pops a bit more
across the area if model trends become more consistent.

The front remains stalled somewhere between Springfield Missouri and
Davenport Iowa depending on which model you believe through Monday
as the longwave trof over the Pacific moves inland, and becomes
negatively tilted over the Rockies and Great Plains.  A strong
surface low develops as a result and it moves into the Mississippi
Valley Monday night into Tuesday.  The upper trof cuts off and
becomes stagnant while the surface low tracks across Missouri into
the Ohio Valley Tuesday.  Pattern is more reminiscent of late Fall
or Winter than mid to late Spring.  Unsure how likely this is to
happen, but this is at least the second run in a row that I`ve seen
do this.  Will have to wait and see, but right now it looks like a
cold/wet end to April.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Area of showers currently over western Missouri is expected to weaken
this afternoon and is not expected to affect KCOU or KUIN at this
time. Main impact will be increasing midlevel cloudiness at
terminals. Southeast winds are expected to prevail through the
night ahead of next system which will move eastward. Southerly
low-level jet of 40-45 knots near 2000 feet AGL over central
Missouri and west- central Illinois could produce low- level wind
shear and added mention for KCOU and KUIN. For tomorrow...another
area of showers with embedded thunderstorms is expected to move
into the area from west to east ahead of a cold front from late
morning into the early afternoon. Actual frontal passage and
accompanied wind shift is likely to be after this valid forecast
period.


Specifics for KSTL:

Increasing midlevel cloudiness is expected through the afternoon at
the terminal. Southeast winds are expected to prevail through the night
ahead of next system which will move eastward. Low-level jet axis
should stay to the west of KSTL precluding mention of LLWS. For
tomorrow...another area of showers with embedded thunderstorms is
expected to affect Lambert Field around midday. However...actual
frontal passage and accompanied wind shift is likely to be just after
this valid forecast period.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






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000
FXUS63 KEAX 231722
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1222 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Showers and an occasional brief thunderstorm have developed over
portions of southern Nebraska and north central Kansas as of early
this morning. It appears much of this activity is tied to a weak
upper disturbance, inferred from both water vapor imagery and model
depiction, in addition to warm air/moisture advection. Coverage is
expected to gradually increase some during the next few hours based
on high-resolution model guidance and this solution seems
reasonable. Forecast maximum instability through the vertical column
is very meager to none over the area through midday, and do not
expect much in the way of thunderstorm activity at this time, but
rather shallow, high-based convection in the form of scattered
showers. The highest probability of rainfall will remain over the
northwestern half of the CWA through the daylight hours. Temperatures
will be dependent on cloud cover, with the northeastern sections of
the forecast area cooler in the middle/upper 60s to the upper 70s in
more cloud-free southwestern areas.

A progressive trough, gradually becoming negatively-tilted, will
move through the central CONUS tonight. Robust convection is
expected to initially develop late this afternoon well to the west
of the CWA in the proximity of a cold front in central Nebraska and
a dryline over the High Plains. The front will quickly overtake much
of the dryline during the evening hours over Kansas, leading to
additional convective development. Models are in decent agreement in
bringing a complex of showers and thunderstorms across the forecast
area late tonight into Thursday morning. While severe weather is
expected well to the west of the area, conditions will become less
supportive for severe weather with eastward extent. As thunderstorms
approach the forecast area, a decrease in intensity is expected as
weak instability will be present (MUCAPE < 500 J/kg, SBCAPE < 50
J/kg), yet sufficient to support thunderstorms. Deep layer shear will
remain strong, so we will have to continue to monitor convective
evolution to the west later this evening. Many areas may receive up
to one-half inch of precipitation, with locally higher amounts in
areas with thunderstorms. Rainfall should quickly come to an end
during Thursday afternoon from west to east as a cold front moves
through the area.

Temperatures will remain warm as little cold air advection will be
present upon the departing upper system. Another highly-amplified
upper trough will move into the western US on Friday, and emerge
into the Plains during the weekend. Models are in decent agreement
through much of the weekend with regards to the synoptic placement
of key features, but diverge by early next week. The theme continues
for an active weather pattern Saturday through Monday. Initial
chances for thunderstorms are possible on Saturday, as a warm front
lifts into the area and warm air advection increases. As the trough
moves into the Plains on Sunday, strong upper ascent and an
approaching pacific cold front will lead to increasing chances of
thunderstorms. While specifics cannot be accurately resolved this
far in advance, several signals suggest strong or severe weather
possible for portions of the forecast area on Sunday. As the upper
trough becomes nearly cut off over the mid Missouri Valley on
Monday, cooler and rainy conditions are expected. Exactly how cold
temperatures fall remains highly uncertain due to model differences
handling the upper pattern and subsequent cold air advection.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Ongoing scattered light showers are expected to taper off this
afternoon and should not have an adverse impact to CIGS and VIS. The
story for this afternoon and evening will be breezy southeast winds
gusting in the middle to upper 20 kts range. But otherwise VFR CIGS
and VIS are expected. Late overnight tonight a line of thunderstorms
are expected to impact the terminals. Have timed this to begin by 08Z
but that may be off an hour or so either side of 08Z. Surface winds
will shift near 12Z with the passage of a cold front along with
periods of SHRA through the morning. The activity should clear out
just beyond the end of the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Pietrycha







000
FXUS63 KLSX 231143
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
643 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Friday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Surface ridge extending from Wisconsin south/southwest into the
Mid-Mississippi Valley and back into east Texas will move east today
ahead of developing low pressure over the Great Plains.  Increasing
southerly low level flow will result.  All short-range model
guidance develops an area of warm advection showers over the eastern
Plains and pushes it east northeast into northwest Missouri and Iowa
today.  Looks possible that the southeast edge of the showers could
clip our area, but low level air is pretty dry according to the NAM,
GFS, and RUC and the primary thrust of moisture return will be back
over western Missouri so have only introduced slight chance PoPs
over our northwest counties.  We should see highs pretty close to
what occurred yesterday even with the warm advection since we`ll be
starting out the day cooler than Tuesday morning.  The exception
will be central Missouri where morning lows should be a bit warmer
than areas further east.

The shortwave currently digging across the Rockies will move out
into the Great Plains tonight and the resulting cold front will move
into northwest Missouri around 12Z.  Still looks like showers and
thunderstorms will be ongoing along and ahead of the front as it
moves through the CWFA on Thursday.  Diurnal heating will likely be
limited due to cloud cover and advancing precip from the west, so
instability still looks relatively weak.  While there should be
enough CAPE for thunderstorms, widespread severe weather does not
look likely at this time.  Stuck closer to the warmer MAV guidance
for highs since morning lows will be around 50 across the area and
15-20 degrees of rise should be attainable in warm advection this
time of year regardless of cloud cover.

Guidance is in good agreement with pushing the front through the
entire area shortly after 00Z.  Still have some lingering precip
east of the Mississippi River Thursday evening as the front exits,
but dry after midnight.  Pacific high builds across the region
Friday morning.  As opposed to a colder Canadian airmass, the
Pacific ridge should produce temperatures near or slightly above
normal in the upper 40s to low 50s Friday morning.  West-southwest
flow develops Friday morning as the high scoots quickly into the
Tennessee Valley so expect temperatures to rebound into the mid and
upper 70s.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

While the medium range guidance is coming into better agreement on
the overall synoptic pattern, the smaller scale is still unclear.
Generally, a secondary cold front will dip south across the Upper
Midwest driven south by the last vestiges of Thursday`s shortwave.
The front will stall somewhere across the Midwest on Saturday,
though models can`t make up their minds where.  GFS stalls the front
across south/southwest Missouri Saturday morning, while the ECMWF
stalls it out over northern Iowa.  The GEM is right about in the
middle stalling the front over northern Missouri.  All three models
have some low level baroclinicity over our area, whether it is the
primary baroclinic zone associated with the front (GFS/GEM) or a
secondary baroclinic zone left over from the Pacific airmass which
will be exiting to the east (EC).  Warm advection begins Saturday
morning with a 30+ kt low level jet pointed at this baroclinic zone
and all three models print out some light precip.  Have therefore
kept chance pops going in central Missouri, and would not be
surprised if subsequent shifts need to bump up pops a bit more
across the area if model trends become more consistent.

The front remains stalled somewhere between Springfield Missouri and
Davenport Iowa depending on which model you believe through Monday
as the longwave trof over the Pacific moves inland, and becomes
negatively tilted over the Rockies and Great Plains.  A strong
surface low develops as a result and it moves into the Mississippi
Valley Monday night into Tuesday.  The upper trof cuts off and
becomes stagnant while the surface low tracks across Missouri into
the Ohio Valley Tuesday.  Pattern is more reminiscent of late Fall
or Winter than mid to late Spring.  Unsure how likely this is to
happen, but this is at least the second run in a row that I`ve seen
do this.  Will have to wait and see, but right now it looks like a
cold/wet end to April.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

VFR flight conditions will continue to prevail this forecast
period, with winds veering and becoming more southerly as the
surface ridge moves off to the east. The next system which will
impact the area is taking shape over the plains, and as it moves
east, area TAF sites will see winds increase to roughly 10-15KT by
late morning/early afternoon in response to a tightening pressure
gradient and increased southerly flow. The aforementioned pressure
gradient should also be enough to produce some gusts around
20-22KT beginning by late afternoon, mainly impacting KCOU and
KUIN. Only increasing midlevel clouds are expected through the
period, and while there is a chance for precipitation to move into
central and northeast Missouri late Wednesday night, exact timing
has yet to be pinned down, and as the onset would be in the last
few hours of the forecast period, have not included mention at
this time.

Specifics for KSTL:
VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period,
with winds continuing to veer and become more southerly as the
surface ridge moves east and the next system to impact the area
takes shape over the plains. Expect winds to increase to about
12-14KT by early afternoon, remaining fairly steady overnight, and
become gusty Thursday morning as the surface pressure gradient
tightens ahead of the approaching system. Showers and
thunderstorms will move through the area on Thursday, though exact
timing for impact at KSTL has yet to be pinned down, and as it
would likely be within the last couple hours of the forecast
period, have not mentioned it in the TAF at this time. Prior to
the storms, expect a gradual increase in midlevel clouds
overspreading the area from west to east today/tonight.

JP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     69  52  72  52 /   5  10  80  30
Quincy          66  49  66  46 /  10  20  80  20
Columbia        72  53  70  47 /  10  30  80  10
Jefferson City  75  53  70  47 /  10  20  80  10
Salem           65  49  72  49 /   5   5  70  50
Farmington      69  48  73  47 /   5   5  80  30

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 231117
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
617 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A very dry air mass is in place across the forecast area early
this morning with temperatures from the mid 40s to low 50s and dew
points in the low to mid 30s. 00z SGF sounding was showing only
0.29 in. of precipitable water. An upper level ridge was located
over the central U.S.

Some convection was developing to our west and northwest where a
low level jet has set up in advance of an approaching shortwave.

The upcoming forecast looks to be fairly active with a couple of
systems moving through. The first late tonight into Thursday will
be a quick mover and the system over the weekend will be much
slower to push through.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

For today, the precipitation occurring to our west and northwest
will likely not reach the ground within our forecast area as it
would encounter a very dry air mass currently in place.
Temperatures should warm up even more than yesterday as a
southerly wind will advect warmer temperatures into the region
ahead of the next shortwave. This shortwave will move into the
Plains late tonight and could bring some showers and thunderstorms
to the northwestern third of the area by 12z Thursday. We are not
expecting any severe weather through tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

The upper level shortwave and surface cold front will push through
the area Thursday and will interact with increasing Gulf moisture
over the area. Best instability will remain south of the area and
should limit our severe weather potential, but would not rule out
a few stronger to low end severe storms with large hail and strong
straight line winds as the main risks. Some heavy rain will likely
accompany the storm system with 0.75 to 1.00 expected over our
northern forecast area and around a half inch over the south.
Precipitation should end from northwest to southeast during the
afternoon to evening hours with the precipitation clearing our
southeastern most counties by 06z.

The surface front will push to the south of the area but will
begin to retreat as a warm front and back into the area on
Saturday as a deep upper level trough begins to develop in the
southwest U.S. Decent warm air advection and low level moisture
advection from the Gulf will occur on Saturday and may see an
initial round of convection developing in the vicinity of the warm
front. This will be the first chance of convection with this
system and could bring some strong to severe storms as fairly
strong instability develops during the day Saturday. Deep layer
shear will be lacking however with a ridge overhead.

Better chance for strong to severe storms will arrive late Sunday.
A blocking pattern begins to develop in the upper levels, with a
strong upper level low pushing into the central Plains. A dry line
and deep layer shear will be the primary foci for strong to severe
convection development Sunday afternoon and evening over
southeast Kansas and western Missouri, with this convection
shifting eastward across the forecast area during the night. Due to the
blocking pattern, the upper level system will be slow to move
eastward through the area and could see additional strong to
severe weather linger into Monday afternoon. The low is expected
to slowly move across the area Monday night and Tuesday with
additional showery activity lingering on the western side of the
low center possibly into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Radar was showing a few sprinkles this morning along and north of
Highway 54. Therefore no precipitation is expected at the TAF
airports.

Other than some mid level cloud cover, skies should remain mostly
clear. No obstructions to visibilities are expected at this time.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Cramer







000
FXUS63 KSGF 231117
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
617 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A very dry air mass is in place across the forecast area early
this morning with temperatures from the mid 40s to low 50s and dew
points in the low to mid 30s. 00z SGF sounding was showing only
0.29 in. of precipitable water. An upper level ridge was located
over the central U.S.

Some convection was developing to our west and northwest where a
low level jet has set up in advance of an approaching shortwave.

The upcoming forecast looks to be fairly active with a couple of
systems moving through. The first late tonight into Thursday will
be a quick mover and the system over the weekend will be much
slower to push through.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

For today, the precipitation occurring to our west and northwest
will likely not reach the ground within our forecast area as it
would encounter a very dry air mass currently in place.
Temperatures should warm up even more than yesterday as a
southerly wind will advect warmer temperatures into the region
ahead of the next shortwave. This shortwave will move into the
Plains late tonight and could bring some showers and thunderstorms
to the northwestern third of the area by 12z Thursday. We are not
expecting any severe weather through tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

The upper level shortwave and surface cold front will push through
the area Thursday and will interact with increasing Gulf moisture
over the area. Best instability will remain south of the area and
should limit our severe weather potential, but would not rule out
a few stronger to low end severe storms with large hail and strong
straight line winds as the main risks. Some heavy rain will likely
accompany the storm system with 0.75 to 1.00 expected over our
northern forecast area and around a half inch over the south.
Precipitation should end from northwest to southeast during the
afternoon to evening hours with the precipitation clearing our
southeastern most counties by 06z.

The surface front will push to the south of the area but will
begin to retreat as a warm front and back into the area on
Saturday as a deep upper level trough begins to develop in the
southwest U.S. Decent warm air advection and low level moisture
advection from the Gulf will occur on Saturday and may see an
initial round of convection developing in the vicinity of the warm
front. This will be the first chance of convection with this
system and could bring some strong to severe storms as fairly
strong instability develops during the day Saturday. Deep layer
shear will be lacking however with a ridge overhead.

Better chance for strong to severe storms will arrive late Sunday.
A blocking pattern begins to develop in the upper levels, with a
strong upper level low pushing into the central Plains. A dry line
and deep layer shear will be the primary foci for strong to severe
convection development Sunday afternoon and evening over
southeast Kansas and western Missouri, with this convection
shifting eastward across the forecast area during the night. Due to the
blocking pattern, the upper level system will be slow to move
eastward through the area and could see additional strong to
severe weather linger into Monday afternoon. The low is expected
to slowly move across the area Monday night and Tuesday with
additional showery activity lingering on the western side of the
low center possibly into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Radar was showing a few sprinkles this morning along and north of
Highway 54. Therefore no precipitation is expected at the TAF
airports.

Other than some mid level cloud cover, skies should remain mostly
clear. No obstructions to visibilities are expected at this time.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Cramer






000
FXUS63 KEAX 231049
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
549 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Showers and an occasional brief thunderstorm have developed over
portions of southern Nebraska and north central Kansas as of early
this morning. It appears much of this activity is tied to a weak
upper disturbance, inferred from both water vapor imagery and model
depiction, in addition to warm air/moisture advection. Coverage is
expected to gradually increase some during the next few hours based
on high-resolution model guidance and this solution seems
reasonable. Forecast maximum instability through the vertical column
is very meager to none over the area through midday, and do not
expect much in the way of thunderstorm activity at this time, but
rather shallow, high-based convection in the form of scattered
showers. The highest probability of rainfall will remain over the
northwestern half of the CWA through the daylight hours. Temperatures
will be dependent on cloud cover, with the northeastern sections of
the forecast area cooler in the middle/upper 60s to the upper 70s in
more cloud-free southwestern areas.

A progressive trough, gradually becoming negatively-tilted, will
move through the central CONUS tonight. Robust convection is
expected to initially develop late this afternoon well to the west
of the CWA in the proximity of a cold front in central Nebraska and
a dryline over the High Plains. The front will quickly overtake much
of the dryline during the evening hours over Kansas, leading to
additional convective development. Models are in decent agreement in
bringing a complex of showers and thunderstorms across the forecast
area late tonight into Thursday morning. While severe weather is
expected well to the west of the area, conditions will become less
supportive for severe weather with eastward extent. As thunderstorms
approach the forecast area, a decrease in intensity is expected as
weak instability will be present (MUCAPE < 500 J/kg, SBCAPE < 50
J/kg), yet sufficient to support thunderstorms. Deep layer shear will
remain strong, so we will have to continue to monitor convective
evolution to the west later this evening. Many areas may receive up
to one-half inch of precipitation, with locally higher amounts in
areas with thunderstorms. Rainfall should quickly come to an end
during Thursday afternoon from west to east as a cold front moves
through the area.

Temperatures will remain warm as little cold air advection will be
present upon the departing upper system. Another highly-amplified
upper trough will move into the western US on Friday, and emerge
into the Plains during the weekend. Models are in decent agreement
through much of the weekend with regards to the synoptic placement
of key features, but diverge by early next week. The theme continues
for an active weather pattern Saturday through Monday. Initial
chances for thunderstorms are possible on Saturday, as a warm front
lifts into the area and warm air advection increases. As the trough
moves into the Plains on Sunday, strong upper ascent and an
approaching pacific cold front will lead to increasing chances of
thunderstorms. While specifics cannot be accurately resolved this
far in advance, several signals suggest strong or severe weather
possible for portions of the forecast area on Sunday. As the upper
trough becomes nearly cut off over the mid Missouri Valley on
Monday, cooler and rainy conditions are expected. Exactly how cold
temperatures fall remains highly uncertain due to model differences
handling the upper pattern and subsequent cold air advection.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 542 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Scattered
showers will move near/over terminals through mid-morning, with
higher probabilities at STJ/MCI, although no reduction in flight
categories expected. Southeasterly winds will become gusty prior to
or shortly after 15Z. Additional showers and thunderstorms will move
across terminals tonight, with probabilities greatly increasing after
06Z. Uncertainty to convective evolution precludes specific timing of
arrival at this time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KLSX 230844
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
344 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Friday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Surface ridge extending from Wisconsin south/southwest into the
Mid-Mississippi Valley and back into east Texas will move east today
ahead of developing low pressure over the Great Plains.  Increasing
southerly low level flow will result.  All short-range model
guidance develops an area of warm advection showers over the eastern
Plains and pushes it east northeast into northwest Missouri and Iowa
today.  Looks possible that the southeast edge of the showers could
clip our area, but low level air is pretty dry according to the NAM,
GFS, and RUC and the primary thrust of moisture return will be back
over western Missouri so have only introduced slight chance PoPs
over our northwest counties.  We should see highs pretty close to
what occurred yesterday even with the warm advection since we`ll be
starting out the day cooler than Tuesday morning.  The exception
will be central Missouri where morning lows should be a bit warmer
than areas further east.

The shortwave currently digging across the Rockies will move out
into the Great Plains tonight and the resulting cold front will move
into northwest Missouri around 12Z.  Still looks like showers and
thunderstorms will be ongoing along and ahead of the front as it
moves through the CWFA on Thursday.  Diurnal heating will likely be
limited due to cloud cover and advancing precip from the west, so
instability still looks relatively weak.  While there should be
enough CAPE for thunderstorms, widespread severe weather does not
look likely at this time.  Stuck closer to the warmer MAV guidance
for highs since morning lows will be around 50 across the area and
15-20 degrees of rise should be attainable in warm advection this
time of year regardless of cloud cover.

Guidance is in good agreement with pushing the front through the
entire area shortly after 00Z.  Still have some lingering precip
east of the Mississippi River Thursday evening as the front exits,
but dry after midnight.  Pacific high builds across the region
Friday morning.  As opposed to a colder Canadian airmass, the
Pacific ridge should produce temperatures near or slightly above
normal in the upper 40s to low 50s Friday morning.  West-southwest
flow develops Friday morning as the high scoots quickly into the
Tennessee Valley so expect temperatures to rebound into the mid and
upper 70s.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

While the medium range guidance is coming into better agreement on
the overall synoptic pattern, the smaller scale is still unclear.
Generally, a secondary cold front will dip south across the Upper
Midwest driven south by the last vestiges of Thursday`s shortwave.
The front will stall somewhere across the Midwest on Saturday,
though models can`t make up their minds where.  GFS stalls the front
across south/southwest Missouri Saturday morning, while the ECMWF
stalls it out over northern Iowa.  The GEM is right about in the
middle stalling the front over northern Missouri.  All three models
have some low level baroclinicity over our area, whether it is the
primary baroclinic zone associated with the front (GFS/GEM) or a
secondary baroclinic zone left over from the Pacific airmass which
will be exiting to the east (EC).  Warm advection begins Saturday
morning with a 30+ kt low level jet pointed at this baroclinic zone
and all three models print out some light precip.  Have therefore
kept chance pops going in central Missouri, and would not be
surprised if subsequent shifts need to bump up pops a bit more
across the area if model trends become more consistent.

The front remains stalled somewhere between Springfield Missouri and
Davenport Iowa depending on which model you believe through Monday
as the longwave trof over the Pacific moves inland, and becomes
negatively tilted over the Rockies and Great Plains.  A strong
surface low develops as a result and it moves into the Mississippi
Valley Monday night into Tuesday.  The upper trof cuts off and
becomes stagnant while the surface low tracks across Missouri into
the Ohio Valley Tuesday.  Pattern is more reminiscent of late Fall
or Winter than mid to late Spring.  Unsure how likely this is to
happen, but this is at least the second run in a row that I`ve seen
do this.  Will have to wait and see, but right now it looks like a
cold/wet end to April.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

VFR flight conditions expected through the forecast period with
clear skies or scattered mid-hi clouds overnight and mid-high
clouds on Wednesday. Light winds tonight will become southeasterly
and increase on Wednesday morning.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions expected through the forecast period with
clear skies or scattered mid-hi clouds overnight and mid-high
clouds on Wednesday. Light winds tonight will become southeasterly
and increase on Wednesday morning.

Glass

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     69  52  72  52 /   5  10  80  30
Quincy          66  49  66  46 /  10  20  80  20
Columbia        72  53  70  47 /  10  30  80  10
Jefferson City  75  53  70  47 /  10  20  80  10
Salem           65  49  72  49 /   5   5  70  50
Farmington      69  48  73  47 /   5   5  80  30

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 230829
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
329 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Showers and an occasional brief thunderstorm have developed over
portions of southern Nebraska and north central Kansas as of early
this morning. It appears much of this activity is tied to a weak
upper disturbance, inferred from both water vapor imagery and model
depiction, in addition to warm air/moisture advection. Coverage is
expected to gradually increase some during the next few hours based
on high-resolution model guidance and this solution seems
reasonable. Forecast maximum instability through the vertical column
is very meager to none over the area through midday, and do not
expect much in the way of thunderstorm activity at this time, but
rather shallow, high-based convection in the form of scattered
showers. The highest probability of rainfall will remain over the
northwestern half of the CWA through the daylight hours. Temperatures
will be dependent on cloud cover, with the northeastern sections of
the forecast area cooler in the middle/upper 60s to the upper 70s in
more cloud-free southwestern areas.

A progressive trough, gradually becoming negatively-tilted, will
move through the central CONUS tonight. Robust convection is
expected to initially develop late this afternoon well to the west
of the CWA in the proximity of a cold front in central Nebraska and
a dryline over the High Plains. The front will quickly overtake much
of the dryline during the evening hours over Kansas, leading to
additional convective development. Models are in decent agreement in
bringing a complex of showers and thunderstorms across the forecast
area late tonight into Thursday morning. While severe weather is
expected well to the west of the area, conditions will become less
supportive for severe weather with eastward extent. As thunderstorms
approach the forecast area, a decrease in intensity is expected as
weak instability will be present (MUCAPE < 500 J/kg, SBCAPE < 50
J/kg), yet sufficient to support thunderstorms. Deep layer shear will
remain strong, so we will have to continue to monitor convective
evolution to the west later this evening. Many areas may receive up
to one-half inch of precipitation, with locally higher amounts in
areas with thunderstorms. Rainfall should quickly come to an end
during Thursday afternoon from west to east as a cold front moves
through the area.

Temperatures will remain warm as little cold air advection will be
present upon the departing upper system. Another highly-amplified
upper trough will move into the western US on Friday, and emerge
into the Plains during the weekend. Models are in decent agreement
through much of the weekend with regards to the synoptic placement
of key features, but diverge by early next week. The theme continues
for an active weather pattern Saturday through Monday. Initial
chances for thunderstorms are possible on Saturday, as a warm front
lifts into the area and warm air advection increases. As the trough
moves into the Plains on Sunday, strong upper ascent and an
approaching pacific cold front will lead to increasing chances of
thunderstorms. While specifics cannot be accurately resolved this
far in advance, several signals suggest strong or severe weather
possible for portions of the forecast area on Sunday. As the upper
trough becomes nearly cut off over the mid Missouri Valley on
Monday, cooler and rainy conditions are expected. Exactly how cold
temperatures fall remains highly uncertain due to model differences
handling the upper pattern and subsequent cold air advection.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR conditions will persist through the majority of the TAF period.
Light east southeast winds will increase out of the southeast between
12z-14z Wednesday, then will become sustained at 18 to 20 kts with
gusts between 25-30 kts during the afternoon. Winds will remain
sustained at 15 to 20 kts through at least 06z, but gustiness may
diminish a bit after sunset. A few isolated showers and weak,
embedded storms are possible across far northern Missouri and
northeast Kansas toward daybreak, but no significant visibility or
ceiling restrictions are expected.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KSGF 230744
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
244 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A very dry air mass is in place across the forecast area early
this morning with temperatures from the mid 40s to low 50s and dew
points in the low to mid 30s. 00z SGF sounding was showing only
0.29 in. of precipitable water. An upper level ridge was located
over the central U.S.

Some convection was developing to our west and northwest where a
low level jet has set up in advance of an approaching shortwave.

The upcoming forecast looks to be fairly active with a couple of
systems moving through. The first late tonight into Thursday will
be a quick mover and the system over the weekend will be much
slower to push through.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

For today, the precipitation occurring to our west and northwest
will likely not reach the ground within our forecast area as it
would encounter a very dry air mass currently in place.
Temperatures should warm up even more than yesterday as a
southerly wind will advect warmer temperatures into the region
ahead of the next shortwave. This shortwave will move into the
Plains late tonight and could bring some showers and thunderstorms
to the northwestern third of the area by 12z Thursday. We are not
expecting any severe weather through tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

The upper level shortwave and surface cold front will push through
the area Thursday and will interact with increasing Gulf moisture
over the area. Best instability will remain south of the area and
should limit our severe weather potential, but would not rule out
a few stronger to low end severe storms with large hail and strong
straight line winds as the main risks. Some heavy rain will likely
accompany the storm system with 0.75 to 1.00 expected over our
northern forecast area and around a half inch over the south.
Precipitaton should end from northwest to southeast during the
afternoon to evening hours with the precipitation clearing our
southeastern most counties by 06z.

The surface front will push to the south of the area but will
begin to retreat as a warm front and back into the area on
Saturday as a deep upper level trough begins to develop in the
southwest U.S. Decent warm air advection and low level moisture
advection from the Gulf will occur on Saturday and may see an
initial round of convection developing in the vicinity of the warm
front. This will be the first chance of convection with this
system and could bring some strong to severe storms as fairly
strong instability develops during the day Saturday. Deep layer
shear will be lacking however with a ridge overhead.

Better chance for strong to severe storms will arrive late Sunday.
A blocking pattern begins to develop in the upper levels, with a
strong upper level low pushing into the central Plains. A dry line
and deep layer shear will be the primary foci for strong to severe
convection development Sunday afternoon and evening over
southeast Kansas and western Missouri, with this convection
shifting eastward across the forecast area during the night. Due to the
blocking pattern, the upper level system will be slow to move
eastward through the area and could see additional strong to
severe weather linger into Monday afternoon. The low is expected
to slowly move across the area Monday night and Tuesday with
additional showery activity lingering on the western side of the
low center possibly into the middle of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. A sfc
ridge axis from the western Great Lakes to the ARLATEX region will
slowly shift east as low pressure moves east over the Plains.
Winds will veer to the se and increase through the taf period. Some
local terrain affects with the sse flow will produce gusts
approaching 30 kts late in the taf period Wed evening at KSGF.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 230744
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
244 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A very dry air mass is in place across the forecast area early
this morning with temperatures from the mid 40s to low 50s and dew
points in the low to mid 30s. 00z SGF sounding was showing only
0.29 in. of precipitable water. An upper level ridge was located
over the central U.S.

Some convection was developing to our west and northwest where a
low level jet has set up in advance of an approaching shortwave.

The upcoming forecast looks to be fairly active with a couple of
systems moving through. The first late tonight into Thursday will
be a quick mover and the system over the weekend will be much
slower to push through.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

For today, the precipitation occurring to our west and northwest
will likely not reach the ground within our forecast area as it
would encounter a very dry air mass currently in place.
Temperatures should warm up even more than yesterday as a
southerly wind will advect warmer temperatures into the region
ahead of the next shortwave. This shortwave will move into the
Plains late tonight and could bring some showers and thunderstorms
to the northwestern third of the area by 12z Thursday. We are not
expecting any severe weather through tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

The upper level shortwave and surface cold front will push through
the area Thursday and will interact with increasing Gulf moisture
over the area. Best instability will remain south of the area and
should limit our severe weather potential, but would not rule out
a few stronger to low end severe storms with large hail and strong
straight line winds as the main risks. Some heavy rain will likely
accompany the storm system with 0.75 to 1.00 expected over our
northern forecast area and around a half inch over the south.
Precipitaton should end from northwest to southeast during the
afternoon to evening hours with the precipitation clearing our
southeastern most counties by 06z.

The surface front will push to the south of the area but will
begin to retreat as a warm front and back into the area on
Saturday as a deep upper level trough begins to develop in the
southwest U.S. Decent warm air advection and low level moisture
advection from the Gulf will occur on Saturday and may see an
initial round of convection developing in the vicinity of the warm
front. This will be the first chance of convection with this
system and could bring some strong to severe storms as fairly
strong instability develops during the day Saturday. Deep layer
shear will be lacking however with a ridge overhead.

Better chance for strong to severe storms will arrive late Sunday.
A blocking pattern begins to develop in the upper levels, with a
strong upper level low pushing into the central Plains. A dry line
and deep layer shear will be the primary foci for strong to severe
convection development Sunday afternoon and evening over
southeast Kansas and western Missouri, with this convection
shifting eastward across the forecast area during the night. Due to the
blocking pattern, the upper level system will be slow to move
eastward through the area and could see additional strong to
severe weather linger into Monday afternoon. The low is expected
to slowly move across the area Monday night and Tuesday with
additional showery activity lingering on the western side of the
low center possibly into the middle of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. A sfc
ridge axis from the western Great Lakes to the ARLATEX region will
slowly shift east as low pressure moves east over the Plains.
Winds will veer to the se and increase through the taf period. Some
local terrain affects with the sse flow will produce gusts
approaching 30 kts late in the taf period Wed evening at KSGF.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 230744
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
244 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A very dry air mass is in place across the forecast area early
this morning with temperatures from the mid 40s to low 50s and dew
points in the low to mid 30s. 00z SGF sounding was showing only
0.29 in. of precipitable water. An upper level ridge was located
over the central U.S.

Some convection was developing to our west and northwest where a
low level jet has set up in advance of an approaching shortwave.

The upcoming forecast looks to be fairly active with a couple of
systems moving through. The first late tonight into Thursday will
be a quick mover and the system over the weekend will be much
slower to push through.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

For today, the precipitation occurring to our west and northwest
will likely not reach the ground within our forecast area as it
would encounter a very dry air mass currently in place.
Temperatures should warm up even more than yesterday as a
southerly wind will advect warmer temperatures into the region
ahead of the next shortwave. This shortwave will move into the
Plains late tonight and could bring some showers and thunderstorms
to the northwestern third of the area by 12z Thursday. We are not
expecting any severe weather through tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

The upper level shortwave and surface cold front will push through
the area Thursday and will interact with increasing Gulf moisture
over the area. Best instability will remain south of the area and
should limit our severe weather potential, but would not rule out
a few stronger to low end severe storms with large hail and strong
straight line winds as the main risks. Some heavy rain will likely
accompany the storm system with 0.75 to 1.00 expected over our
northern forecast area and around a half inch over the south.
Precipitaton should end from northwest to southeast during the
afternoon to evening hours with the precipitation clearing our
southeastern most counties by 06z.

The surface front will push to the south of the area but will
begin to retreat as a warm front and back into the area on
Saturday as a deep upper level trough begins to develop in the
southwest U.S. Decent warm air advection and low level moisture
advection from the Gulf will occur on Saturday and may see an
initial round of convection developing in the vicinity of the warm
front. This will be the first chance of convection with this
system and could bring some strong to severe storms as fairly
strong instability develops during the day Saturday. Deep layer
shear will be lacking however with a ridge overhead.

Better chance for strong to severe storms will arrive late Sunday.
A blocking pattern begins to develop in the upper levels, with a
strong upper level low pushing into the central Plains. A dry line
and deep layer shear will be the primary foci for strong to severe
convection development Sunday afternoon and evening over
southeast Kansas and western Missouri, with this convection
shifting eastward across the forecast area during the night. Due to the
blocking pattern, the upper level system will be slow to move
eastward through the area and could see additional strong to
severe weather linger into Monday afternoon. The low is expected
to slowly move across the area Monday night and Tuesday with
additional showery activity lingering on the western side of the
low center possibly into the middle of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. A sfc
ridge axis from the western Great Lakes to the ARLATEX region will
slowly shift east as low pressure moves east over the Plains.
Winds will veer to the se and increase through the taf period. Some
local terrain affects with the sse flow will produce gusts
approaching 30 kts late in the taf period Wed evening at KSGF.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 230744
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
244 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A very dry air mass is in place across the forecast area early
this morning with temperatures from the mid 40s to low 50s and dew
points in the low to mid 30s. 00z SGF sounding was showing only
0.29 in. of precipitable water. An upper level ridge was located
over the central U.S.

Some convection was developing to our west and northwest where a
low level jet has set up in advance of an approaching shortwave.

The upcoming forecast looks to be fairly active with a couple of
systems moving through. The first late tonight into Thursday will
be a quick mover and the system over the weekend will be much
slower to push through.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

For today, the precipitation occurring to our west and northwest
will likely not reach the ground within our forecast area as it
would encounter a very dry air mass currently in place.
Temperatures should warm up even more than yesterday as a
southerly wind will advect warmer temperatures into the region
ahead of the next shortwave. This shortwave will move into the
Plains late tonight and could bring some showers and thunderstorms
to the northwestern third of the area by 12z Thursday. We are not
expecting any severe weather through tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

The upper level shortwave and surface cold front will push through
the area Thursday and will interact with increasing Gulf moisture
over the area. Best instability will remain south of the area and
should limit our severe weather potential, but would not rule out
a few stronger to low end severe storms with large hail and strong
straight line winds as the main risks. Some heavy rain will likely
accompany the storm system with 0.75 to 1.00 expected over our
northern forecast area and around a half inch over the south.
Precipitaton should end from northwest to southeast during the
afternoon to evening hours with the precipitation clearing our
southeastern most counties by 06z.

The surface front will push to the south of the area but will
begin to retreat as a warm front and back into the area on
Saturday as a deep upper level trough begins to develop in the
southwest U.S. Decent warm air advection and low level moisture
advection from the Gulf will occur on Saturday and may see an
initial round of convection developing in the vicinity of the warm
front. This will be the first chance of convection with this
system and could bring some strong to severe storms as fairly
strong instability develops during the day Saturday. Deep layer
shear will be lacking however with a ridge overhead.

Better chance for strong to severe storms will arrive late Sunday.
A blocking pattern begins to develop in the upper levels, with a
strong upper level low pushing into the central Plains. A dry line
and deep layer shear will be the primary foci for strong to severe
convection development Sunday afternoon and evening over
southeast Kansas and western Missouri, with this convection
shifting eastward across the forecast area during the night. Due to the
blocking pattern, the upper level system will be slow to move
eastward through the area and could see additional strong to
severe weather linger into Monday afternoon. The low is expected
to slowly move across the area Monday night and Tuesday with
additional showery activity lingering on the western side of the
low center possibly into the middle of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. A sfc
ridge axis from the western Great Lakes to the ARLATEX region will
slowly shift east as low pressure moves east over the Plains.
Winds will veer to the se and increase through the taf period. Some
local terrain affects with the sse flow will produce gusts
approaching 30 kts late in the taf period Wed evening at KSGF.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KEAX 230448
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1148 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

A rather nice evening is at hand with mild temps and light winds.
Late overnight an area of shallow showers and -TSRA are progged to
develop across far northern MO assoc with modest mid-lvl warm air
advection / upglide. Instability is very low so am not expecting any
severe storms. For tomorrow the main story will be the breezy
southerly winds and very warm temps that will develop, especially
across the western half of the CWA. The wind and temps are in
response to an approaching negatively tilted trough. More on this
feature below.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

As the trough moves out on to the Plains thunderstorms are expected to
develop over portions of KS and NE and gradually move toward the CWA
Wed evening/night. By the time the complex reaches the CWA
instability is rather low but the shear is modest. Thus there could
be a few strong storms but not expecting widespread SVR. The complex slowly
moves across the CWA during the day on THR, ending west to east by
the mid afternoon.

FRI will be a transition day with mild temps ahead of a very deep
system that will impact the region through the rest of the fcst
period. As the next system approaches from the west the fcst gets
tricky insofar as timing of precip/storms. The GFS and EC are aligned
regarding the arrival of the trough and attendant upper low, but
differ in spatial placement. As such my confidence is high the CWA
should see periods of rain and storms starting on Saturday and
continuing into early next week, but my confidence is low concerning
specifics. Portions of the CWA could see decent rainfall amounts by
the time the system moves out late on TUE... upwards of 3 or 4 inches. As
for SVR storms the current NWP favors SUN over SAT as ample shear
and instability should be in place, but this is rather far out yet and
will become clearer as the week moves forward. The last item to note
will be very chilly temps TUE night behind the departing system. We
very well may see sub 32F temps WED morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR conditions will persist through the majority of the TAF period.
Light east southeast winds will increase out of the southeast between
12z-14z Wednesday, then will become sustained at 18 to 20 kts with
gusts between 25-30 kts during the afternoon. Winds will remain
sustained at 15 to 20 kts through at least 06z, but gustiness may
diminish a bit after sunset. A few isolated showers and weak,
embedded storms are possible across far northern Missouri and
northeast Kansas toward daybreak, but no significant visibility or
ceiling restrictions are expected.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pietrycha
LONG TERM...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KLSX 230429
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1129 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Surface ridge to move off to the east tonight allowing southerly
winds to return to the region by Wednesday. In the meantime, clear
skies and light north winds to prevail tonight. Lows will drop into
the low to mid 40s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

On Wednesday, mid and high clouds will be on the increase as next
weather system approaches region. With southeast to south winds
temperatures to warm up into the mid 60s to mid 70s.

As for precipitation chances, feel that there is a lot of dry air to
overcome, so best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be on
Thursday as cold front swings through region. Not a lot of
instability with this system with highest capes, around 500 j/kg,
especially along and south of I-70. Activity to exit area Thursday
evening. Highs on Thursday will depend on cloud cover, precipitation
and timing of cold front. For now have mid 60s to low 70s.

Not a lot of caa behind this system and will see a secondary frontal
boundary slide south through region on Friday stalling out well
south of forecast area. Do not anticipate any precipitation with
this boundary, but will become the focus of activity later in the
weekend and into early next week for our area. Highs on Friday will
be in the 70s.

Extended models still have timing and placement issues with
activity. For now have showers and thunderstorms developing across
western portions of forecast area on Saturday and spreading east
Saturday night. The activity will linger through the rest of the
weekend and into early next week. Looks like best chances will be
Sunday night and Monday.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

VFR flight conditions expected through the forecast period with
clear skies or scattered mid-hi clouds overnight and mid-high
clouds on Wednesday. Light winds tonight will become southeasterly
and increase on Wednesday morning.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions expected through the forecast period with
clear skies or scattered mid-hi clouds overnight and mid-high
clouds on Wednesday. Light winds tonight will become southeasterly
and increase on Wednesday morning.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 230403
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1103 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

A picture-perfect Spring day is underway this afternoon across the
region, with abundant sunshine, light north winds and temperatures
in the mid to upper 60s.  This is all courtesy of high pressure that
is building behind a weak cold front that passed through the region
yesterday evening/night.  This high will continue to slide east
across the Missouri Valley this evening, and should be positioned to
give us a rather cool night across the region, especially the
eastern Ozarks, where morning lows will dip into the low 40s.

Southerly winds will begin to increase tomorrow as that area of high
pressure moves east of the region, with relatively breezy conditions
expected by tomorrow afternoon across the area.  Moisture will be
somewhat slow to return to the region, especially over central
Missouri, where elevated fire weather conditions will be possible
tomorrow afternoon.

Those southerly winds, combined with large scale subsidence as an
upper level ridge moves overhead, should give us a rather warm day
tomorrow over western Missouri, where temperatures will approach 80
degrees.  Somewhat cooler readings are expected to the east, with
low to mid 70s common across south central Missouri and the eastern
Ozarks.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

By Thursday morning, a quick moving mid level trough is expected to
swing east across the Central Plains, with an accompanying cold front
sweeping across the region during the day Thursday.  This will set
the stage for showers and thunderstorms from late Wednesday
night/early Thursday morning through Thursday evening.  Right now,
precipitation and cloud cover ahead of the front, along with
lackluster moisture return, should limit instability considerably
for Thursday afternoon, though an isolated strong/severe storm isn`t
out of the question as the front moves through.  Marginally severe
hail and perhaps wind would be the primary threat.

That front should clear the area by late Thursday evening, with the
threat of precipitation ending as the front clears the area.  The
post-frontal air mass isn`t particularly cool, and temperatures on
Friday will remain in the mid 70s.

The cold front that passes through the region Thursday will only
make it to I-40 or so before stalling out Friday, and that boundary
will then return back to the north on Saturday as a warm front.
There remains a fairly large spread among guidance members as to
how quickly and how far north that front will move, but where it
does move through, a much warmer and more moist air mass will build
in.  A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible later Saturday
in association with the front.

Sunday is looking to be the most interesting day within the coming
week, as a deep western trough ejects east across the Great Plains, and
a dry line sets up along and just east of I-35 by Sunday morning.
While the details differ, the global model suite is in general
agreement in the large scale pattern, which is one that would favor
severe weather across a large portion of the nation`s mid section,
including the SGF forecast area.  While too early to talk specifics,
we would certainly encourage everyone to stay tuned over the coming
days as the threat area and specific hazards are refined.  The
severe threat may linger into Monday, before a much cooler pattern
take hold for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. A sfc
ridge axis from the western Great Lakes to the ARLATEX region will
slowly shift east as low pressure moves east over the Plains.
Winds will veer to the se and increase through the taf period. Some
local terrain affects with the sse flow will produce gusts
approaching 30 kts late in the taf period Wed evening at KSGF.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KSGF 230403
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1103 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

A picture-perfect Spring day is underway this afternoon across the
region, with abundant sunshine, light north winds and temperatures
in the mid to upper 60s.  This is all courtesy of high pressure that
is building behind a weak cold front that passed through the region
yesterday evening/night.  This high will continue to slide east
across the Missouri Valley this evening, and should be positioned to
give us a rather cool night across the region, especially the
eastern Ozarks, where morning lows will dip into the low 40s.

Southerly winds will begin to increase tomorrow as that area of high
pressure moves east of the region, with relatively breezy conditions
expected by tomorrow afternoon across the area.  Moisture will be
somewhat slow to return to the region, especially over central
Missouri, where elevated fire weather conditions will be possible
tomorrow afternoon.

Those southerly winds, combined with large scale subsidence as an
upper level ridge moves overhead, should give us a rather warm day
tomorrow over western Missouri, where temperatures will approach 80
degrees.  Somewhat cooler readings are expected to the east, with
low to mid 70s common across south central Missouri and the eastern
Ozarks.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

By Thursday morning, a quick moving mid level trough is expected to
swing east across the Central Plains, with an accompanying cold front
sweeping across the region during the day Thursday.  This will set
the stage for showers and thunderstorms from late Wednesday
night/early Thursday morning through Thursday evening.  Right now,
precipitation and cloud cover ahead of the front, along with
lackluster moisture return, should limit instability considerably
for Thursday afternoon, though an isolated strong/severe storm isn`t
out of the question as the front moves through.  Marginally severe
hail and perhaps wind would be the primary threat.

That front should clear the area by late Thursday evening, with the
threat of precipitation ending as the front clears the area.  The
post-frontal air mass isn`t particularly cool, and temperatures on
Friday will remain in the mid 70s.

The cold front that passes through the region Thursday will only
make it to I-40 or so before stalling out Friday, and that boundary
will then return back to the north on Saturday as a warm front.
There remains a fairly large spread among guidance members as to
how quickly and how far north that front will move, but where it
does move through, a much warmer and more moist air mass will build
in.  A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible later Saturday
in association with the front.

Sunday is looking to be the most interesting day within the coming
week, as a deep western trough ejects east across the Great Plains, and
a dry line sets up along and just east of I-35 by Sunday morning.
While the details differ, the global model suite is in general
agreement in the large scale pattern, which is one that would favor
severe weather across a large portion of the nation`s mid section,
including the SGF forecast area.  While too early to talk specifics,
we would certainly encourage everyone to stay tuned over the coming
days as the threat area and specific hazards are refined.  The
severe threat may linger into Monday, before a much cooler pattern
take hold for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. A sfc
ridge axis from the western Great Lakes to the ARLATEX region will
slowly shift east as low pressure moves east over the Plains.
Winds will veer to the se and increase through the taf period. Some
local terrain affects with the sse flow will produce gusts
approaching 30 kts late in the taf period Wed evening at KSGF.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KEAX 222343
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
643 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

A rather nice evening is at hand with mild temps and light winds.
Late overnight an area of shallow showers and -TSRA are progged to
develop across far northern MO assoc with modest mid-lvl warm air
advection / upglide. Instability is very low so am not expecting any
severe storms. For tomorrow the main story will be the breezy
southerly winds and very warm temps that will develop, especially
across the western half of the CWA. The wind and temps are in
response to an approaching negatively tilted trough. More on this
feature below.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

As the trough moves out on to the Plains thunderstorms are expected to
develop over portions of KS and NE and gradually move toward the CWA
Wed evening/night. By the time the complex reaches the CWA
instability is rather low but the shear is modest. Thus there could
be a few strong storms but not expecting widespread SVR. The complex slowly
moves across the CWA during the day on THR, ending west to east by
the mid afternoon.

FRI will be a transition day with mild temps ahead of a very deep
system that will impact the region through the rest of the fcst
period. As the next system approaches from the west the fcst gets
tricky insofar as timing of precip/storms. The GFS and EC are aligned
regarding the arrival of the trough and attendant upper low, but
differ in spatial placement. As such my confidence is high the CWA
should see periods of rain and storms starting on Saturday and
continuing into early next week, but my confidence is low concerning
specifics. Portions of the CWA could see decent rainfall amounts by
the time the system moves out late on TUE... upwards of 3 or 4 inches. As
for SVR storms the current NWP favors SUN over SAT as ample shear
and instability should be in place, but this is rather far out yet and
will become clearer as the week moves forward. The last item to note
will be very chilly temps TUE night behind the departing system. We
very well may see sub 32F temps WED morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period.
Cloud cover will gradually increase from this evening through the
overnight hours, but cloud bases should remain around or slightly
above 10 kft. Light easterly winds will drift to the southeast then
increase between 12z-18z Wednesday, reaching sustained speeds of 18
to 20 kts with gusts to 30 kts during the afternoon. A few light
showers are possible across northern Missouri Wednesday morning;
however, the main rain/thunderstorm chances will hold off until
later Wednesday night.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pietrycha
LONG TERM...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KSGF 222253
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
553 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

A picture-perfect Spring day is underway this afternoon across the
region, with abundant sunshine, light north winds and temperatures
in the mid to upper 60s.  This is all courtesy of high pressure that
is building behind a weak cold front that passed through the region
yesterday evening/night.  This high will continue to slide east
across the Missouri Valley this evening, and should be positioned to
give us a rather cool night across the region, especially the
eastern Ozarks, where morning lows will dip into the low 40s.

Southerly winds will begin to increase tomorrow as that area of high
pressure moves east of the region, with relatively breezy conditions
expected by tomorrow afternoon across the area.  Moisture will be
somewhat slow to return to the region, especially over central
Missouri, where elevated fire weather conditions will be possible
tomorrow afternoon.

Those southerly winds, combined with large scale subsidence as an
upper level ridge moves overhead, should give us a rather warm day
tomorrow over western Missouri, where temperatures will approach 80
degrees.  Somewhat cooler readings are expected to the east, with
low to mid 70s common across south central Missouri and the eastern
Ozarks.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

By Thursday morning, a quick moving mid level trough is expected to
swing east across the Central Plains, with an accompanying cold front
sweeping across the region during the day Thursday.  This will set
the stage for showers and thunderstorms from late Wednesday
night/early Thursday morning through Thursday evening.  Right now,
precipitation and cloud cover ahead of the front, along with
lackluster moisture return, should limit instability considerably
for Thursday afternoon, though an isolated strong/severe storm isn`t
out of the question as the front moves through.  Marginally severe
hail and perhaps wind would be the primary threat.

That front should clear the area by late Thursday evening, with the
threat of precipitation ending as the front clears the area.  The
post-frontal airmass isn`t particularly cool, and temperatures on
Friday will remain in the mid 70s.

The cold front that passes through the region Thursday will only
make it to I-40 or so before stalling out Friday, and that boundary
will then return back to the north on Saturday as a warm front.
There remains a fairly large spread among guidance members as to
how quickly and how far north that front will move, but where it
does move through, a much warmer and more moist airmass will build
in.  A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible later Saturday
in association with the front.

Sunday is looking to be the most interesting day within the coming
week, as a deep western trough ejects east across the Great Plains, and
a dry line sets up along and just east of I-35 by Sunday morning.
While the details differ, the global model suite is in general
agreement in the large scale pattern, which is one that would favor
severe weather across a large portion of the nation`s mid section,
including the SGF forecast area.  While too early to talk specifics,
we would certainly encourage everyone to stay tuned over the coming
days as the threat area and specific hazards are refined.  The
severe threat may linger into Monday, before a much cooler pattern
take hold for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 550 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR conditions will continue through tomorrow. Winds will become
light and variable this evening eventually becoming light
southeasterly by Wednesday morning. Winds will become gusty by
late morning through tomorrow afternoon for SGF and JLN.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Griffin







000
FXUS63 KSGF 222253
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
553 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

A picture-perfect Spring day is underway this afternoon across the
region, with abundant sunshine, light north winds and temperatures
in the mid to upper 60s.  This is all courtesy of high pressure that
is building behind a weak cold front that passed through the region
yesterday evening/night.  This high will continue to slide east
across the Missouri Valley this evening, and should be positioned to
give us a rather cool night across the region, especially the
eastern Ozarks, where morning lows will dip into the low 40s.

Southerly winds will begin to increase tomorrow as that area of high
pressure moves east of the region, with relatively breezy conditions
expected by tomorrow afternoon across the area.  Moisture will be
somewhat slow to return to the region, especially over central
Missouri, where elevated fire weather conditions will be possible
tomorrow afternoon.

Those southerly winds, combined with large scale subsidence as an
upper level ridge moves overhead, should give us a rather warm day
tomorrow over western Missouri, where temperatures will approach 80
degrees.  Somewhat cooler readings are expected to the east, with
low to mid 70s common across south central Missouri and the eastern
Ozarks.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

By Thursday morning, a quick moving mid level trough is expected to
swing east across the Central Plains, with an accompanying cold front
sweeping across the region during the day Thursday.  This will set
the stage for showers and thunderstorms from late Wednesday
night/early Thursday morning through Thursday evening.  Right now,
precipitation and cloud cover ahead of the front, along with
lackluster moisture return, should limit instability considerably
for Thursday afternoon, though an isolated strong/severe storm isn`t
out of the question as the front moves through.  Marginally severe
hail and perhaps wind would be the primary threat.

That front should clear the area by late Thursday evening, with the
threat of precipitation ending as the front clears the area.  The
post-frontal airmass isn`t particularly cool, and temperatures on
Friday will remain in the mid 70s.

The cold front that passes through the region Thursday will only
make it to I-40 or so before stalling out Friday, and that boundary
will then return back to the north on Saturday as a warm front.
There remains a fairly large spread among guidance members as to
how quickly and how far north that front will move, but where it
does move through, a much warmer and more moist airmass will build
in.  A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible later Saturday
in association with the front.

Sunday is looking to be the most interesting day within the coming
week, as a deep western trough ejects east across the Great Plains, and
a dry line sets up along and just east of I-35 by Sunday morning.
While the details differ, the global model suite is in general
agreement in the large scale pattern, which is one that would favor
severe weather across a large portion of the nation`s mid section,
including the SGF forecast area.  While too early to talk specifics,
we would certainly encourage everyone to stay tuned over the coming
days as the threat area and specific hazards are refined.  The
severe threat may linger into Monday, before a much cooler pattern
take hold for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 550 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR conditions will continue through tomorrow. Winds will become
light and variable this evening eventually becoming light
southeasterly by Wednesday morning. Winds will become gusty by
late morning through tomorrow afternoon for SGF and JLN.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Griffin







000
FXUS63 KSGF 222253
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
553 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

A picture-perfect Spring day is underway this afternoon across the
region, with abundant sunshine, light north winds and temperatures
in the mid to upper 60s.  This is all courtesy of high pressure that
is building behind a weak cold front that passed through the region
yesterday evening/night.  This high will continue to slide east
across the Missouri Valley this evening, and should be positioned to
give us a rather cool night across the region, especially the
eastern Ozarks, where morning lows will dip into the low 40s.

Southerly winds will begin to increase tomorrow as that area of high
pressure moves east of the region, with relatively breezy conditions
expected by tomorrow afternoon across the area.  Moisture will be
somewhat slow to return to the region, especially over central
Missouri, where elevated fire weather conditions will be possible
tomorrow afternoon.

Those southerly winds, combined with large scale subsidence as an
upper level ridge moves overhead, should give us a rather warm day
tomorrow over western Missouri, where temperatures will approach 80
degrees.  Somewhat cooler readings are expected to the east, with
low to mid 70s common across south central Missouri and the eastern
Ozarks.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

By Thursday morning, a quick moving mid level trough is expected to
swing east across the Central Plains, with an accompanying cold front
sweeping across the region during the day Thursday.  This will set
the stage for showers and thunderstorms from late Wednesday
night/early Thursday morning through Thursday evening.  Right now,
precipitation and cloud cover ahead of the front, along with
lackluster moisture return, should limit instability considerably
for Thursday afternoon, though an isolated strong/severe storm isn`t
out of the question as the front moves through.  Marginally severe
hail and perhaps wind would be the primary threat.

That front should clear the area by late Thursday evening, with the
threat of precipitation ending as the front clears the area.  The
post-frontal airmass isn`t particularly cool, and temperatures on
Friday will remain in the mid 70s.

The cold front that passes through the region Thursday will only
make it to I-40 or so before stalling out Friday, and that boundary
will then return back to the north on Saturday as a warm front.
There remains a fairly large spread among guidance members as to
how quickly and how far north that front will move, but where it
does move through, a much warmer and more moist airmass will build
in.  A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible later Saturday
in association with the front.

Sunday is looking to be the most interesting day within the coming
week, as a deep western trough ejects east across the Great Plains, and
a dry line sets up along and just east of I-35 by Sunday morning.
While the details differ, the global model suite is in general
agreement in the large scale pattern, which is one that would favor
severe weather across a large portion of the nation`s mid section,
including the SGF forecast area.  While too early to talk specifics,
we would certainly encourage everyone to stay tuned over the coming
days as the threat area and specific hazards are refined.  The
severe threat may linger into Monday, before a much cooler pattern
take hold for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 550 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR conditions will continue through tomorrow. Winds will become
light and variable this evening eventually becoming light
southeasterly by Wednesday morning. Winds will become gusty by
late morning through tomorrow afternoon for SGF and JLN.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Griffin







000
FXUS63 KSGF 222253
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
553 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

A picture-perfect Spring day is underway this afternoon across the
region, with abundant sunshine, light north winds and temperatures
in the mid to upper 60s.  This is all courtesy of high pressure that
is building behind a weak cold front that passed through the region
yesterday evening/night.  This high will continue to slide east
across the Missouri Valley this evening, and should be positioned to
give us a rather cool night across the region, especially the
eastern Ozarks, where morning lows will dip into the low 40s.

Southerly winds will begin to increase tomorrow as that area of high
pressure moves east of the region, with relatively breezy conditions
expected by tomorrow afternoon across the area.  Moisture will be
somewhat slow to return to the region, especially over central
Missouri, where elevated fire weather conditions will be possible
tomorrow afternoon.

Those southerly winds, combined with large scale subsidence as an
upper level ridge moves overhead, should give us a rather warm day
tomorrow over western Missouri, where temperatures will approach 80
degrees.  Somewhat cooler readings are expected to the east, with
low to mid 70s common across south central Missouri and the eastern
Ozarks.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

By Thursday morning, a quick moving mid level trough is expected to
swing east across the Central Plains, with an accompanying cold front
sweeping across the region during the day Thursday.  This will set
the stage for showers and thunderstorms from late Wednesday
night/early Thursday morning through Thursday evening.  Right now,
precipitation and cloud cover ahead of the front, along with
lackluster moisture return, should limit instability considerably
for Thursday afternoon, though an isolated strong/severe storm isn`t
out of the question as the front moves through.  Marginally severe
hail and perhaps wind would be the primary threat.

That front should clear the area by late Thursday evening, with the
threat of precipitation ending as the front clears the area.  The
post-frontal airmass isn`t particularly cool, and temperatures on
Friday will remain in the mid 70s.

The cold front that passes through the region Thursday will only
make it to I-40 or so before stalling out Friday, and that boundary
will then return back to the north on Saturday as a warm front.
There remains a fairly large spread among guidance members as to
how quickly and how far north that front will move, but where it
does move through, a much warmer and more moist airmass will build
in.  A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible later Saturday
in association with the front.

Sunday is looking to be the most interesting day within the coming
week, as a deep western trough ejects east across the Great Plains, and
a dry line sets up along and just east of I-35 by Sunday morning.
While the details differ, the global model suite is in general
agreement in the large scale pattern, which is one that would favor
severe weather across a large portion of the nation`s mid section,
including the SGF forecast area.  While too early to talk specifics,
we would certainly encourage everyone to stay tuned over the coming
days as the threat area and specific hazards are refined.  The
severe threat may linger into Monday, before a much cooler pattern
take hold for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 550 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR conditions will continue through tomorrow. Winds will become
light and variable this evening eventually becoming light
southeasterly by Wednesday morning. Winds will become gusty by
late morning through tomorrow afternoon for SGF and JLN.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Griffin







000
FXUS63 KLSX 222225
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
525 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Surface ridge to move off to the east tonight allowing southerly
winds to return to the region by Wednesday. In the meantime, clear
skies and light north winds to prevail tonight. Lows will drop into
the low to mid 40s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

On Wednesday, mid and high clouds will be on the increase as next
weather system approaches region. With southeast to south winds
temperatures to warm up into the mid 60s to mid 70s.

As for precipitation chances, feel that there is a lot of dry air to
overcome, so best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be on
Thursday as cold front swings through region. Not a lot of
instability with this system with highest capes, around 500 j/kg,
especially along and south of I-70. Activity to exit area Thursday
evening. Highs on Thursday will depend on cloud cover, precipitation
and timing of cold front. For now have mid 60s to low 70s.

Not a lot of caa behind this system and will see a secondary frontal
boundary slide south through region on Friday stalling out well
south of forecast area. Do not anticipate any precipitation with
this boundary, but will become the focus of activity later in the
weekend and into early next week for our area. Highs on Friday will
be in the 70s.

Extended models still have timing and placement issues with
activity. For now have showers and thunderstorms developing across
western portions of forecast area on Saturday and spreading east
Saturday night. The activity will linger through the rest of the
weekend and into early next week. Looks like best chances will be
Sunday night and Monday.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 522 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

VFR flight conditions expected through the forecast period with
clear skies or scattered mid-hi clouds tonight and increasing mid-
hi clouds on Wednesday morning. Surface high dominating the area
will bring light winds tonight, becoming southeasterly 8-13 kts on
Wednesday morning.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions expected through the forecast period with
clear skies or scattered mid-hi clouds tonight and increasing mid-
hi clouds on Wednesday morning. Surface high dominating the area
will bring light winds tonight, becoming southeasterly 10-13 kts on
Wednesday morning.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 222005
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
305 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

A picture-perfect Spring day is underway this afternoon across the
region, with abundant sunshine, light north winds and temperatures
in the mid to upper 60s.  This is all courtesy of high pressure that
is building behind a weak cold front that passed through the region
yesterday evening/night.  This high will continue to slide east
across the Missouri Valley this evening, and should be positioned to
give us a rather cool night across the region, especially the
eastern Ozarks, where morning lows will dip into the low 40s.

Southerly winds will begin to increase tomorrow as that area of high
pressure moves east of the region, with relatively breezy conditions
expected by tomorrow afternoon across the area.  Moisture will be
somewhat slow to return to the region, especially over central
Missouri, where elevated fire weather conditions will be possible
tomorrow afternoon.

Those southerly winds, combined with large scale subsidence as an
upper level ridge moves overhead, should give us a rather warm day
tomorrow over western Missouri, where temperatures will approach 80
degrees.  Somewhat cooler readings are expected to the east, with
low to mid 70s common across south central Missouri and the eastern
Ozarks.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

By Thursday morning, a quick moving mid level trough is expected to
swing east across the Central Plains, with an accompanying cold front
sweeping across the region during the day Thursday.  This will set
the stage for showers and thunderstorms from late Wednesday
night/early Thursday morning through Thursday evening.  Right now,
precipitation and cloud cover ahead of the front, along with
lackluster moisture return, should limit instability considerably
for Thursday afternoon, though an isolated strong/severe storm isn`t
out of the question as the front moves through.  Marginally severe
hail and perhaps wind would be the primary threat.

That front should clear the area by late Thursday evening, with the
threat of precipitation ending as the front clears the area.  The
post-frontal airmass isn`t particularly cool, and temperatures on
Friday will remain in the mid 70s.

The cold front that passes through the region Thursday will only
make it to I-40 or so before stalling out Friday, and that boundary
will then return back to the north on Saturday as a warm front.
There remains a fairly large spread among guidance members as to
how quickly and how far north that front will move, but where it
does move through, a much warmer and more moist airmass will build
in.  A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible later Saturday
in association with the front.

Sunday is looking to be the most interesting day within the coming
week, as a deep western trough ejects east across the Great Plains, and
a dry line sets up along and just east of I-35 by Sunday morning.
While the details differ, the global model suite is in general
agreement in the large scale pattern, which is one that would favor
severe weather across a large portion of the nation`s mid section,
including the SGF forecast area.  While too early to talk specifics,
we would certainly encourage everyone to stay tuned over the coming
days as the threat area and specific hazards are refined.  The
severe threat may linger into Monday, before a much cooler pattern
take hold for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR flight conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours. An area
of high pressure will continue to push into the region this
afternoon and overnight. Winds will turn light and variable
overnight, then turn to southeasterly during the morning hours.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Kardell






000
FXUS63 KSGF 222005
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
305 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

A picture-perfect Spring day is underway this afternoon across the
region, with abundant sunshine, light north winds and temperatures
in the mid to upper 60s.  This is all courtesy of high pressure that
is building behind a weak cold front that passed through the region
yesterday evening/night.  This high will continue to slide east
across the Missouri Valley this evening, and should be positioned to
give us a rather cool night across the region, especially the
eastern Ozarks, where morning lows will dip into the low 40s.

Southerly winds will begin to increase tomorrow as that area of high
pressure moves east of the region, with relatively breezy conditions
expected by tomorrow afternoon across the area.  Moisture will be
somewhat slow to return to the region, especially over central
Missouri, where elevated fire weather conditions will be possible
tomorrow afternoon.

Those southerly winds, combined with large scale subsidence as an
upper level ridge moves overhead, should give us a rather warm day
tomorrow over western Missouri, where temperatures will approach 80
degrees.  Somewhat cooler readings are expected to the east, with
low to mid 70s common across south central Missouri and the eastern
Ozarks.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

By Thursday morning, a quick moving mid level trough is expected to
swing east across the Central Plains, with an accompanying cold front
sweeping across the region during the day Thursday.  This will set
the stage for showers and thunderstorms from late Wednesday
night/early Thursday morning through Thursday evening.  Right now,
precipitation and cloud cover ahead of the front, along with
lackluster moisture return, should limit instability considerably
for Thursday afternoon, though an isolated strong/severe storm isn`t
out of the question as the front moves through.  Marginally severe
hail and perhaps wind would be the primary threat.

That front should clear the area by late Thursday evening, with the
threat of precipitation ending as the front clears the area.  The
post-frontal airmass isn`t particularly cool, and temperatures on
Friday will remain in the mid 70s.

The cold front that passes through the region Thursday will only
make it to I-40 or so before stalling out Friday, and that boundary
will then return back to the north on Saturday as a warm front.
There remains a fairly large spread among guidance members as to
how quickly and how far north that front will move, but where it
does move through, a much warmer and more moist airmass will build
in.  A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible later Saturday
in association with the front.

Sunday is looking to be the most interesting day within the coming
week, as a deep western trough ejects east across the Great Plains, and
a dry line sets up along and just east of I-35 by Sunday morning.
While the details differ, the global model suite is in general
agreement in the large scale pattern, which is one that would favor
severe weather across a large portion of the nation`s mid section,
including the SGF forecast area.  While too early to talk specifics,
we would certainly encourage everyone to stay tuned over the coming
days as the threat area and specific hazards are refined.  The
severe threat may linger into Monday, before a much cooler pattern
take hold for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR flight conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours. An area
of high pressure will continue to push into the region this
afternoon and overnight. Winds will turn light and variable
overnight, then turn to southeasterly during the morning hours.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Kardell







000
FXUS63 KLSX 222000
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
300 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Surface ridge to move off to the east tonight allowing southerly
winds to return to the region by Wednesday. In the meantime, clear
skies and light north winds to prevail tonight. Lows will drop into
the low to mid 40s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

On Wednesday, mid and high clouds will be on the increase as next
weather system approaches region. With southeast to south winds
temperatures to warm up into the mid 60s to mid 70s.

As for precipitation chances, feel that there is a lot of dry air to
overcome, so best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be on
Thursday as cold front swings through region. Not a lot of
instability with this system with highest capes, around 500 j/kg,
especially along and south of I-70. Activity to exit area Thursday
evening. Highs on Thursday will depend on cloud cover, precipitation
and timing of cold front. For now have mid 60s to low 70s.

Not a lot of caa behind this system and will see a secondary frontal
boundary slide south through region on Friday stalling out well
south of forecast area. Do not anticipate any precipitation with
this boundary, but will become the focus of activity later in the
weekend and into early next week for our area. Highs on Friday will
be in the 70s.

Extended models still have timing and placement issues with
activity. For now have showers and thunderstorms developing across
western portions of forecast area on Saturday and spreading east
Saturday night. The activity will linger through the rest of the
weekend and into early next week. Looks like best chances will be
Sunday night and Monday.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1057 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Surface ridge extending from MN s-sw into OK will move eastward
through our area. The n-nwly surface wind will weaken this evening
and veer around to an e-nely direction. The wind will strengthen on
Wednesday from a sely direction as the surface ridge axis shifts
east of our area. There may be some high level clouds late
tonight, then mid level clouds will develop and move eastward
through northeast MO and west central IL on Wednesday due to
strong low-mid level warm air advection.

Specifics for KSTL: N-nwly surface wind will weaken this evening
and become light late tonight. The wind will increase again to
around 10 kts Wednesday afternoon from a sely direction. Just
some high level clouds late tonight, then mid level clouds on
Wednesday.

GKS
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KEAX 221941
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
241 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

A rather nice evening is at hand with mild temps and light winds.
Late overnight an area of shallow showers and -TSRA are progged to
develop across far northern MO assoc with modest mid-lvl warm air
advection / upglide. Instability is very low so am not expecting any
severe storms. For tomorrow the main story will be the breezy
southerly winds and very warm temps that will develop, especially
across the western half of the CWA. The wind and temps are in
response to an approaching negatively tilted trough. More on this
feature below.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

As the trough moves out on to the Plains thunderstorms are expected to
develop over portions of KS and NE and gradually move toward the CWA
Wed evening/night. By the time the complex reaches the CWA
instability is rather low but the shear is modest. Thus there could
be a few strong storms but not expecting widespread SVR. The complex slowly
moves across the CWA during the day on THR, ending west to east by
the mid afternoon.

FRI will be a transition day with mild temps ahead of a very deep
system that will impact the region through the rest of the fcst
period. As the next system approaches from the west the fcst gets
tricky insofar as timing of precip/storms. The GFS and EC are aligned
regarding the arrival of the trough and attendant upper low, but
differ in spatial placement. As such my confidence is high the CWA
should see periods of rain and storms starting on Saturday and
continuing into early next week, but my confidence is low concerning
specifics. Portions of the CWA could see decent rainfall amounts by
the time the system moves out late on TUE... upwards of 3 or 4 inches. As
for SVR storms the current NWP favors SUN over SAT as ample shear
and instability should be in place, but this is rather far out yet and
will become clearer as the week moves forward. The last item to note
will be very chilly temps TUE night behind the departing system. We
very well may see sub 32F temps WED morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CIGS and VIS are expected through the period. Surface winds will
slowly veer this evening to out of the southeast and should see an
increase in the speeds by very late in the period. Latest model data
depict showers and TSRA to develop very late tonight into the morning
hours, but that activity should remain well north of the terminals.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pietrycha
LONG TERM...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Pietrycha







000
FXUS63 KEAX 221734
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1234 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Dry air continues to advect into the region early this morning, with
surface dewpoints in the 30s replacing dewpoints in the 50s. Surface
high pressure is approaching from the west, and the high pressure
axis will move across the forecast area today. This will result in
relatively light wind speeds with a gradual transition from
northeast to southeast directions. Upper level riding will build
into the region today, and with ample insolation, temperatures will
warm into the 60s to near 70 degrees during the afternoon hours.

Attention turns to Wednesday and Thursday as a progressive,
negatively-tilted trough moves through the central CONUS. Models
hint at increasing warm air advection, especially just to our west,
with a notable increase in H85 wind speeds Wednesday morning. This
pattern may lead to elevated shallow convection, primarily over the
northwest quarter of the forecast area. Instability is meager during
this period, so severe weather is not expected with this initial
activity. Precipitation that does develop Wednesday morning should
come to an end by midday, with temperatures warming into the 70s in
most locations. Well organized convection is expected to develop
during the afternoon/evening hours along a cold front and dryline
over the High Plains, eventually consolidating into a cluster of
thunderstorms during the late evening. As the convection moves
east, decreasing instability will exist with eastward extent and
a gradual weakening trend is anticipated by the time the convection
reaches the forecast area. While shear will be sufficient for
organized convection, the lack of instability will largely preclude
severe weather over the area as the frontal boundary and associated
convection moves through Thursday morning, although an isolated
strong storm cannot be ruled out. Many areas may receive around
one-half inch of precipitation, with locally higher amounts in areas
with thunderstorms. Rainfall should quickly come to an end during
Thursday afternoon from west to east.

Temperatures will remain warm as little cold air advection will be
present upon the departing upper system. Another highly-amplified
upper trough will move into the western US on Friday, and at least
partially emerge into the Plains during the weekend. Considerable
uncertainty exists with specifics regarding the synoptic upper
pattern evolution and surface fields with the approaching system.
The overall signal suggests an active weather period for the region
is becoming increasingly probable during the weekend into early next
week, with the potential for strong to severe weather and several
bouts of rainfall. Subsequent model runs will continue to help
better refine timing/locations of precipitation chances and the
potential severity of thunderstorm development.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CIGS and VIS are expected through the period. Surface winds will
slowly veer this evening to out of the southeast and should see an
increase in the speeds by very late in the period. Latest model data
depict showers and TSRA to develop very late tonight into the morning
hours, but that activity should remain well north of the terminals.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Pietrycha







000
FXUS63 KSGF 221726
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1226 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Cold front has pushed through most of the forecast area so far
this morning with any remaining chance of showers ending as the
front passes through. Surface high pressure was building into the
area from the northwest with a quickly clearing sky behind the
front. Temperatures along the front were in the lower 60s but have
trailed off to the lower to middle 50s behind the front.

This forecast looks to be fairly active in the long term period
with some dry conditions over the first couple of days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Cold air advection is expected today as high pressure builds into
the area from the northwest. Despite the sunshine expected today,
temperatures are expected to rise into the mid 60s to lower 70s
for highs. A fairly amplified upper level ridge will then build
into the central U.S. tonight into Wednesday with a storm system
on either side of the ridge. One exiting the Atlantic coast, and
the other pushing out of the Rockies into the high Plains.
Temperatures on Wednesday should rebound back into the lower to
upper 70s. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain north
and west of the area across the Plains during the day Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

By late Wednesday night, upper level trough will shift into the
Plains with a cold front pushing into eastern Kansas. Some showers
and thunderstorms may affect the western portions of the forecast
area prior to sunrise Thursday. Due to the timing of the front,
the instability is expected to remain on the lower side as this
front and upper level energy push through Thursday. While
thunderstorms are expected, the severe weather risk will be minimal.
Most of the precipitation should exit the forecast area by the
early evening, with clearing taking place from northwest to southeast.

The amplified upper pattern will persist through the later part of
the week which will cause a large upper level low to develop in
the Plains this weekend and early next week. As one might expect
with this type of pattern, the models are struggling to come up
with similar solutions with each other or run to run. However, the
signal remains there for unsettled weather across the region as a
front hangs up in the area for a lengthy time and several waves of
upper level energy move into the region as well. Storm strength
and precipitation amounts will be dependent on where the front
positions itself. Current have the highest QPF across our northern
CWA which may see over an inch of rain during that time period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR flight conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours. An area
of high pressure will continue to push into the region this
afternoon and overnight. Winds will turn light and variable
overnight, then turn to southeasterly during the morning hours.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Kardell







000
FXUS63 KSGF 221726
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1226 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Cold front has pushed through most of the forecast area so far
this morning with any remaining chance of showers ending as the
front passes through. Surface high pressure was building into the
area from the northwest with a quickly clearing sky behind the
front. Temperatures along the front were in the lower 60s but have
trailed off to the lower to middle 50s behind the front.

This forecast looks to be fairly active in the long term period
with some dry conditions over the first couple of days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Cold air advection is expected today as high pressure builds into
the area from the northwest. Despite the sunshine expected today,
temperatures are expected to rise into the mid 60s to lower 70s
for highs. A fairly amplified upper level ridge will then build
into the central U.S. tonight into Wednesday with a storm system
on either side of the ridge. One exiting the Atlantic coast, and
the other pushing out of the Rockies into the high Plains.
Temperatures on Wednesday should rebound back into the lower to
upper 70s. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain north
and west of the area across the Plains during the day Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

By late Wednesday night, upper level trough will shift into the
Plains with a cold front pushing into eastern Kansas. Some showers
and thunderstorms may affect the western portions of the forecast
area prior to sunrise Thursday. Due to the timing of the front,
the instability is expected to remain on the lower side as this
front and upper level energy push through Thursday. While
thunderstorms are expected, the severe weather risk will be minimal.
Most of the precipitation should exit the forecast area by the
early evening, with clearing taking place from northwest to southeast.

The amplified upper pattern will persist through the later part of
the week which will cause a large upper level low to develop in
the Plains this weekend and early next week. As one might expect
with this type of pattern, the models are struggling to come up
with similar solutions with each other or run to run. However, the
signal remains there for unsettled weather across the region as a
front hangs up in the area for a lengthy time and several waves of
upper level energy move into the region as well. Storm strength
and precipitation amounts will be dependent on where the front
positions itself. Current have the highest QPF across our northern
CWA which may see over an inch of rain during that time period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR flight conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours. An area
of high pressure will continue to push into the region this
afternoon and overnight. Winds will turn light and variable
overnight, then turn to southeasterly during the morning hours.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Kardell






000
FXUS63 KLSX 221636
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1136 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Thursday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Cold front extending from near Effingham IL southwest to near
West Plains MO. The cooler and drier air is lagging the wind shift
a bit and is just now working into central and eastern Missouri.
Pretty solid ridge behind the front is progged to build southeast
into the Mississippi Valley today. Looking back to yesterday,
highs across northern and eastern Nebraska, southern South Dakota,
and western Iowa ranged from the mid 60s to low 70s. This is
agreeable with latest MOS guidance...but with plenty of sunshine
expected today and the recent trend of MOS to be a little too
cool, I went just a degree or two higher. With wind dropping off
and a clear sky tonight, should see excellent radiational cooling
conditions develop, especially along and east of the Mississippi
River which will be closest to the ridge axis. MOS guidance is
pretty uniformly in the 40 to 45 degree range for lows tonight,
but would not be surprised to see some of our cold spots drop into
the upper 30s.

Should see the wind turn back around to the southeast on Wednesday
ahead of a strong trof of low pressure which will develop over the
Great Plains.  850mb temperatures jump back up to 8-12C by 00Z
Though forecast soundings across the area don`t mix quite that high,
i did bump high temperatures up a little over MOS to try to account
for the good warm advection.  The trof will move into the eastern
Plains and upper Midwest Wednesday night.   A 40-50kt low level jet
develops ahead of the trof over the Mississippi Valley between
06-12Z Thursday, and models show good mass convergence across the
CWFA by 12Z on the nose of this jet in the baroclinic zone.  Start
time of precipitation is still in question, though with all that
convergence over the area by 12Z would think that something should
be moving into the area by then.  Stuck with high chance PoPs in
central and northeast Missouri to account for this after 06Z
Thursday to account for this even though guidance came in a little
drier.  Thursday still looks wet as the cold front pushes through
the area so have maintained likely PoPs across the area.  While
there should be plenty of deep layer shear, widespread severe
weather looks unlikely at this time due to limited heating and
therefore low CAPE values

Carney

.LONG TERM: (Friday through Monday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Latest runs of the medium range models are in better agreement than
yesterday`s.  The GFS and ECMWF are now pretty darn close with the
cold front from Thursday`s system only making int into central
Arkansas on Friday and then moving back to the north into southern
Missouri by Saturday.  Resulting low level baroclinic zone sets up
across Missouri and by 00Z Sunday a 30+ kt low level jet is pointing
at it.  Both models develop a wide area of moisture convergence
along the baroclinic zone as a result and print out fairly wide
spread precip.  Strong baroclinicity hangs over the area through
Monday with waves of precipitation as a strong negatively tilted
upper level longwave trof moves across the Rockies into the Plains.
This could be a very wet and stormy pattern for Saturday night into
Monday.  However, since these are the first runs I`ve seen to
actually agree fairly well, I haven`t bitten hook-line-and-sinker on
them yet.  That being said I did bump up pops a bit to account for
the better model agreement.  Temperatures will be highly dependent
on where the surface front sets up and how it moves through the
weekend.  Needless to say, the Saturday through Monday time period
is still a low confidence forecast.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1057 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Surface ridge extending from MN s-sw into OK will move eastward
through our area. The n-nwly surface wind will weaken this evening
and veer around to an e-nely direction. The wind will strengthen on
Wednesday from a sely direction as the surface ridge axis shifts
east of our area. There may be some high level clouds late
tonight, then mid level clouds will develop and move eastward
through northeast MO and west central IL on Wednesday due to
strong low-mid level warm air advection.

Specifics for KSTL: N-nwly surface wind will weaken this evening
and become light late tonight. The wind will increase again to
around 10 kts Wednesday afternoon from a sely direction. Just
some high level clouds late tonight, then mid level clouds on
Wednesday.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     69  45  71  52 /   0   0   5  10
Quincy          66  43  67  51 /   0   0  10  40
Columbia        68  45  71  54 /   0   0   5  40
Jefferson City  69  45  73  54 /   0   0   5  40
Salem           68  41  66  48 /   0   0   5  10
Farmington      68  43  70  50 /   5   0   0  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 221135
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
635 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Cold front has pushed through most of the forecast area so far
this morning with any remaining chance of showers ending as the
front passes through. Surface high pressure was building into the
area from the northwest with a quickly clearing sky behind the
front. Temperatures along the front were in the lower 60s but have
trailed off to the lower to middle 50s behind the front.

This forecast looks to be fairly active in the long term period
with some dry conditions over the first couple of days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Cold air advection is expected today as high pressure builds into
the area from the northwest. Despite the sunshine expected today,
temperatures are expected to rise into the mid 60s to lower 70s
for highs. A fairly amplified upper level ridge will then build
into the central U.S. tonight into Wednesday with a storm system
on either side of the ridge. One exiting the Atlantic coast, and
the other pushing out of the Rockies into the high Plains.
Temperatures on Wednesday should rebound back into the lower to
upper 70s. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain north
and west of the area across the Plains during the day Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

By late Wednesday night, upper level trough will shift into the
Plains with a cold front pushing into eastern Kansas. Some showers
and thunderstorms may affect the western portions of the forecast
area prior to sunrise Thursday. Due to the timing of the front,
the instability is expected to remain on the lower side as this
front and upper level energy push through Thursday. While
thunderstorms are expected, the severe weather risk will be minimal.
Most of the precipitation should exit the forecast area by the
early evening, with clearing taking place from northwest to southeast.

The amplified upper pattern will persist through the later part of
the week which will cause a large upper level low to develop in
the Plains this weekend and early next week. As one might expect
with this type of pattern, the models are struggling to come up
with similar solutions with each other or run to run. However, the
signal remains there for unsettled weather across the region as a
front hangs up in the area for a lengthy time and several waves of
upper level energy move into the region as well. Storm strength
and precipitation amounts will be dependent on where the front
positions itself. Current have the highest QPF across our northern
CWA which may see over an inch of rain during that time period.

&&

.AVIATION...

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect fair weather conditions over the next 24 hours. VFR is
forecasted through Wednesday morning.

This fair weather will occur in response to high pressure building
over the nations mid section.

At the surface, winds will be light and from the northeast today,
eventually shifting to the south late tonight.

No low ceilings or obstructions to visibilities are expected at
this time.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Cramer








000
FXUS63 KSGF 221135
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
635 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Cold front has pushed through most of the forecast area so far
this morning with any remaining chance of showers ending as the
front passes through. Surface high pressure was building into the
area from the northwest with a quickly clearing sky behind the
front. Temperatures along the front were in the lower 60s but have
trailed off to the lower to middle 50s behind the front.

This forecast looks to be fairly active in the long term period
with some dry conditions over the first couple of days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Cold air advection is expected today as high pressure builds into
the area from the northwest. Despite the sunshine expected today,
temperatures are expected to rise into the mid 60s to lower 70s
for highs. A fairly amplified upper level ridge will then build
into the central U.S. tonight into Wednesday with a storm system
on either side of the ridge. One exiting the Atlantic coast, and
the other pushing out of the Rockies into the high Plains.
Temperatures on Wednesday should rebound back into the lower to
upper 70s. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain north
and west of the area across the Plains during the day Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

By late Wednesday night, upper level trough will shift into the
Plains with a cold front pushing into eastern Kansas. Some showers
and thunderstorms may affect the western portions of the forecast
area prior to sunrise Thursday. Due to the timing of the front,
the instability is expected to remain on the lower side as this
front and upper level energy push through Thursday. While
thunderstorms are expected, the severe weather risk will be minimal.
Most of the precipitation should exit the forecast area by the
early evening, with clearing taking place from northwest to southeast.

The amplified upper pattern will persist through the later part of
the week which will cause a large upper level low to develop in
the Plains this weekend and early next week. As one might expect
with this type of pattern, the models are struggling to come up
with similar solutions with each other or run to run. However, the
signal remains there for unsettled weather across the region as a
front hangs up in the area for a lengthy time and several waves of
upper level energy move into the region as well. Storm strength
and precipitation amounts will be dependent on where the front
positions itself. Current have the highest QPF across our northern
CWA which may see over an inch of rain during that time period.

&&

.AVIATION...

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect fair weather conditions over the next 24 hours. VFR is
forecasted through Wednesday morning.

This fair weather will occur in response to high pressure building
over the nations mid section.

At the surface, winds will be light and from the northeast today,
eventually shifting to the south late tonight.

No low ceilings or obstructions to visibilities are expected at
this time.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Cramer








000
FXUS63 KSGF 221135
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
635 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Cold front has pushed through most of the forecast area so far
this morning with any remaining chance of showers ending as the
front passes through. Surface high pressure was building into the
area from the northwest with a quickly clearing sky behind the
front. Temperatures along the front were in the lower 60s but have
trailed off to the lower to middle 50s behind the front.

This forecast looks to be fairly active in the long term period
with some dry conditions over the first couple of days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Cold air advection is expected today as high pressure builds into
the area from the northwest. Despite the sunshine expected today,
temperatures are expected to rise into the mid 60s to lower 70s
for highs. A fairly amplified upper level ridge will then build
into the central U.S. tonight into Wednesday with a storm system
on either side of the ridge. One exiting the Atlantic coast, and
the other pushing out of the Rockies into the high Plains.
Temperatures on Wednesday should rebound back into the lower to
upper 70s. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain north
and west of the area across the Plains during the day Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

By late Wednesday night, upper level trough will shift into the
Plains with a cold front pushing into eastern Kansas. Some showers
and thunderstorms may affect the western portions of the forecast
area prior to sunrise Thursday. Due to the timing of the front,
the instability is expected to remain on the lower side as this
front and upper level energy push through Thursday. While
thunderstorms are expected, the severe weather risk will be minimal.
Most of the precipitation should exit the forecast area by the
early evening, with clearing taking place from northwest to southeast.

The amplified upper pattern will persist through the later part of
the week which will cause a large upper level low to develop in
the Plains this weekend and early next week. As one might expect
with this type of pattern, the models are struggling to come up
with similar solutions with each other or run to run. However, the
signal remains there for unsettled weather across the region as a
front hangs up in the area for a lengthy time and several waves of
upper level energy move into the region as well. Storm strength
and precipitation amounts will be dependent on where the front
positions itself. Current have the highest QPF across our northern
CWA which may see over an inch of rain during that time period.

&&

.AVIATION...

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect fair weather conditions over the next 24 hours. VFR is
forecasted through Wednesday morning.

This fair weather will occur in response to high pressure building
over the nations mid section.

At the surface, winds will be light and from the northeast today,
eventually shifting to the south late tonight.

No low ceilings or obstructions to visibilities are expected at
this time.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Cramer








000
FXUS63 KSGF 221135
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
635 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Cold front has pushed through most of the forecast area so far
this morning with any remaining chance of showers ending as the
front passes through. Surface high pressure was building into the
area from the northwest with a quickly clearing sky behind the
front. Temperatures along the front were in the lower 60s but have
trailed off to the lower to middle 50s behind the front.

This forecast looks to be fairly active in the long term period
with some dry conditions over the first couple of days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Cold air advection is expected today as high pressure builds into
the area from the northwest. Despite the sunshine expected today,
temperatures are expected to rise into the mid 60s to lower 70s
for highs. A fairly amplified upper level ridge will then build
into the central U.S. tonight into Wednesday with a storm system
on either side of the ridge. One exiting the Atlantic coast, and
the other pushing out of the Rockies into the high Plains.
Temperatures on Wednesday should rebound back into the lower to
upper 70s. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain north
and west of the area across the Plains during the day Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

By late Wednesday night, upper level trough will shift into the
Plains with a cold front pushing into eastern Kansas. Some showers
and thunderstorms may affect the western portions of the forecast
area prior to sunrise Thursday. Due to the timing of the front,
the instability is expected to remain on the lower side as this
front and upper level energy push through Thursday. While
thunderstorms are expected, the severe weather risk will be minimal.
Most of the precipitation should exit the forecast area by the
early evening, with clearing taking place from northwest to southeast.

The amplified upper pattern will persist through the later part of
the week which will cause a large upper level low to develop in
the Plains this weekend and early next week. As one might expect
with this type of pattern, the models are struggling to come up
with similar solutions with each other or run to run. However, the
signal remains there for unsettled weather across the region as a
front hangs up in the area for a lengthy time and several waves of
upper level energy move into the region as well. Storm strength
and precipitation amounts will be dependent on where the front
positions itself. Current have the highest QPF across our northern
CWA which may see over an inch of rain during that time period.

&&

.AVIATION...

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect fair weather conditions over the next 24 hours. VFR is
forecasted through Wednesday morning.

This fair weather will occur in response to high pressure building
over the nations mid section.

At the surface, winds will be light and from the northeast today,
eventually shifting to the south late tonight.

No low ceilings or obstructions to visibilities are expected at
this time.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Cramer








000
FXUS63 KEAX 221117
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
617 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Dry air continues to advect into the region early this morning, with
surface dewpoints in the 30s replacing dewpoints in the 50s. Surface
high pressure is approaching from the west, and the high pressure
axis will move across the forecast area today. This will result in
relatively light wind speeds with a gradual transition from
northeast to southeast directions. Upper level riding will build
into the region today, and with ample insolation, temperatures will
warm into the 60s to near 70 degrees during the afternoon hours.

Attention turns to Wednesday and Thursday as a progressive,
negatively-tilted trough moves through the central CONUS. Models
hint at increasing warm air advection, especially just to our west,
with a notable increase in H85 wind speeds Wednesday morning. This
pattern may lead to elevated shallow convection, primarily over the
northwest quarter of the forecast area. Instability is meager during
this period, so severe weather is not expected with this initial
activity. Precipitation that does develop Wednesday morning should
come to an end by midday, with temperatures warming into the 70s in
most locations. Well organized convection is expected to develop
during the afternoon/evening hours along a cold front and dryline
over the High Plains, eventually consolidating into a cluster of
thunderstorms during the late evening. As the convection moves
east, decreasing instability will exist with eastward extent and
a gradual weakening trend is anticipated by the time the convection
reaches the forecast area. While shear will be sufficient for
organized convection, the lack of instability will largely preclude
severe weather over the area as the frontal boundary and associated
convection moves through Thursday morning, although an isolated
strong storm cannot be ruled out. Many areas may receive around
one-half inch of precipitation, with locally higher amounts in areas
with thunderstorms. Rainfall should quickly come to an end during
Thursday afternoon from west to east.

Temperatures will remain warm as little cold air advection will be
present upon the departing upper system. Another highly-amplified
upper trough will move into the western US on Friday, and at least
partially emerge into the Plains during the weekend. Considerable
uncertainty exists with specifics regarding the synoptic upper
pattern evolution and surface fields with the approaching system.
The overall signal suggests an active weather period for the region
is becoming increasingly probable during the weekend into early next
week, with the potential for strong to severe weather and several
bouts of rainfall. Subsequent model runs will continue to help
better refine timing/locations of precipitation chances and the
potential severity of thunderstorm development.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 617 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Surface wind speeds
will gradually veer from northeast to southeast by this evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KLSX 221049
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
549 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Thursday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Cold front extending from near Effingham IL southwest to near
West Plains MO. The cooler and drier air is lagging the wind shift
a bit and is just now working into central and eastern Missouri.
Pretty solid ridge behind the front is progged to build southeast
into the Mississippi Valley today. Looking back to yesterday,
highs across northern and eastern Nebraska, southern South Dakota,
and western Iowa ranged from the mid 60s to low 70s. This is
agreeable with latest MOS guidance...but with plenty of sunshine
expected today and the recent trend of MOS to be a little too
cool, I went just a degree or two higher. With wind dropping off
and a clear sky tonight, should see excellent radiational cooling
conditions develop, especially along and east of the Mississippi
River which will be closest to the ridge axis. MOS guidance is
pretty uniformly in the 40 to 45 degree range for lows tonight,
but would not be surprised to see some of our cold spots drop into
the upper 30s.

Should see the wind turn back around to the southeast on Wednesday
ahead of a strong trof of low pressure which will develop over the
Great Plains.  850mb temperatures jump back up to 8-12C by 00Z
Though forecast soundings across the area don`t mix quite that high,
i did bump high temperatures up a little over MOS to try to account
for the good warm advection.  The trof will move into the eastern
Plains and upper Midwest Wednesday night.   A 40-50kt low level jet
develops ahead of the trof over the Mississippi Valley between
06-12Z Thursday, and models show good mass convergence across the
CWFA by 12Z on the nose of this jet in the baroclinic zone.  Start
time of precipitation is still in question, though with all that
convergence over the area by 12Z would think that something should
be moving into the area by then.  Stuck with high chance PoPs in
central and northeast Missouri to account for this after 06Z
Thursday to account for this even though guidance came in a little
drier.  Thursday still looks wet as the cold front pushes through
the area so have maintained likely PoPs across the area.  While
there should be plenty of deep layer shear, widespread severe
weather looks unlikely at this time due to limited heating and
therefore low CAPE values


Carney

.LONG TERM: (Friday through Monday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Latest runs of the medium range models are in better agreement than
yesterday`s.  The GFS and ECMWF are now pretty darn close with the
cold front from Thursday`s system only making int into central
Arkansas on Friday and then moving back to the north into southern
Missouri by Saturday.  Resulting low level baroclinic zone sets up
across Missouri and by 00Z Sunday a 30+ kt low level jet is pointing
at it.  Both models develop a wide area of moisture convergence
along the baroclinic zone as a result and print out fairly wide
spread precip.  Strong baroclinicity hangs over the area through
Monday with waves of precipitation as a strong negatively tilted
upper level longwave trof moves across the Rockies into the Plains.
This could be a very wet and stormy pattern for Saturday night into
Monday.  However, since these are the first runs I`ve seen to
actually agree fairly well, I haven`t bitten hook-line-and-sinker on
them yet.  That being said I did bump up pops a bit to account for
the better model agreement.  Temperatures will be highly dependent
on where the surface front sets up and how it moves through the
weekend.  Needless to say, the Saturday through Monday time period
is still a low confidence forecast.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 544 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Dry, VFR flight conditions will prevail across all TAF sites.
North-northwesterly winds generally between 10-15KT will decrease
after sunset and gradually veer to the northeast by the end of
the forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL:
Dry, VFR flight conditions will prevail through the period, with
northwest winds between 10-15KT decreasing after sunset and
gradually veering to the northeast by Wednesday morning.

JP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     69  46  70  52 /   0   0   5  10
Quincy          66  42  68  50 /   0   0  10  40
Columbia        68  45  73  54 /   0   0   5  40
Jefferson City  69  43  74  54 /   0   0   5  40
Salem           68  42  67  50 /   0   0   5  10
Farmington      68  41  71  49 /   5   0   0  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 220850
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
350 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Thursday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Cold front extending from near Effingham IL southwest to near
West Plains MO. The cooler and drier air is lagging the wind shift
a bit and is just now working into central and eastern Missouri.
Pretty solid ridge behind the front is progged to build southeast
into the Mississippi Valley today. Looking back to yesterday,
highs across northern and eastern Nebraska, southern South Dakota,
and western Iowa ranged from the mid 60s to low 70s. This is
agreeable with latest MOS guidance...but with plenty of sunshine
expected today and the recent trend of MOS to be a little too
cool, I went just a degree or two higher. With wind dropping off
and a clear sky tonight, should see excellent radiational cooling
conditions develop, especially along and east of the Mississippi
River which will be closest to the ridge axis. MOS guidance is
pretty uniformly in the 40 to 45 degree range for lows tonight,
but would not be surprised to see some of our cold spots drop into
the upper 30s.

Should see the wind turn back around to the southeast on Wednesday
ahead of a strong trof of low pressure which will develop over the
Great Plains.  850mb temperatures jump back up to 8-12C by 00Z
Though forecast soundings across the area don`t mix quite that high,
i did bump high temperatures up a little over MOS to try to account
for the good warm advection.  The trof will move into the eastern
Plains and upper Midwest Wednesday night.   A 40-50kt low level jet
develops ahead of the trof over the Mississippi Valley between
06-12Z Thursday, and models show good mass convergence across the
CWFA by 12Z on the nose of this jet in the baroclinic zone.  Start
time of precipitation is still in question, though with all that
convergence over the area by 12Z would think that something should
be moving into the area by then.  Stuck with high chance PoPs in
central and northeast Missouri to account for this after 06Z
Thursday to account for this even though guidance came in a little
drier.  Thursday still looks wet as the cold front pushes through
the area so have maintained likely PoPs across the area.  While
there should be plenty of deep layer shear, widespread severe
weather looks unlikely at this time due to limited heating and
therefore low CAPE values


Carney

.LONG TERM: (Friday through Monday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Latest runs of the medium range models are in better agreement than
yesterday`s.  The GFS and ECMWF are now pretty darn close with the
cold front from Thursday`s system only making int into central
Arkansas on Friday and then moving back to the north into southern
Missouri by Saturday.  Resulting low level baroclinic zone sets up
across Missouri and by 00Z Sunday a 30+ kt low level jet is pointing
at it.  Both models develop a wide area of moisture convergence
along the baroclinic zone as a result and print out fairly wide
spread precip.  Strong baroclinicity hangs over the area through
Monday with waves of precipitation as a strong negatively tilted
upper level longwave trof moves across the Rockies into the Plains.
This could be a very wet and stormy pattern for Saturday night into
Monday.  However, since these are the first runs I`ve seen to
actually agree fairly well, I haven`t bitten hook-line-and-sinker on
them yet.  That being said I did bump up pops a bit to account for
the better model agreement.  Temperatures will be highly dependent
on where the surface front sets up and how it moves through the
weekend.  Needless to say, the Saturday through Monday time period
is still a low confidence forecast.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

Fog has developed across the region in areas where winds have
become calm and skies were starting to clear. The lower dew points
behind the cold front were filtering in to the region and wind
speeds were also increasing. These two factors will interfere with
fog formation with visibilities likely improving over the next
couple of hours once the front has moved through. Until then,
expect visibilities to vary from IFR (favored low spots and TAF
sites near rivers such as KSUS) to VFR. After the fog has
dissipated, VFR conditions are anticipated for the remainder of
the TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     69  46  70  52 /   0   0   5  10
Quincy          66  42  68  50 /   0   0  10  40
Columbia        68  45  73  54 /   0   0   5  40
Jefferson City  69  43  74  54 /   0   0   5  40
Salem           68  42  67  50 /   0   0   5  10
Farmington      68  41  71  49 /   5   0   0  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 220752
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
252 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Dry air continues to advect into the region early this morning, with
surface dewpoints in the 30s replacing dewpoints in the 50s. Surface
high pressure is approaching from the west, and the high pressure
axis will move across the forecast area today. This will result in
relatively light wind speeds with a gradual transition from
northeast to southeast directions. Upper level riding will build
into the region today, and with ample insolation, temperatures will
warm into the 60s to near 70 degrees during the afternoon hours.

Attention turns to Wednesday and Thursday as a progressive,
negatively-tilted trough moves through the central CONUS. Models
hint at increasing warm air advection, especially just to our west,
with a notable increase in H85 wind speeds Wednesday morning. This
pattern may lead to elevated shallow convection, primarily over the
northwest quarter of the forecast area. Instability is meager during
this period, so severe weather is not expected with this initial
activity. Precipitation that does develop Wednesday morning should
come to an end by midday, with temperatures warming into the 70s in
most locations. Well organized convection is expected to develop
during the afternoon/evening hours along a cold front and dryline
over the High Plains, eventually consolidating into a cluster of
thunderstorms during the late evening. As the convection moves
east, decreasing instability will exist with eastward extent and
a gradual weakening trend is anticipated by the time the convection
reaches the forecast area. While shear will be sufficient for
organized convection, the lack of instability will largely preclude
severe weather over the area as the frontal boundary and associated
convection moves through Thursday morning, although an isolated
strong storm cannot be ruled out. Many areas may receive around
one-half inch of precipitation, with locally higher amounts in areas
with thunderstorms. Rainfall should quickly come to an end during
Thursday afternoon from west to east.

Temperatures will remain warm as little cold air advection will be
present upon the departing upper system. Another highly-amplified
upper trough will move into the western US on Friday, and at least
partially emerge into the Plains during the weekend. Considerable
uncertainty exists with specifics regarding the synoptic upper
pattern evolution and surface fields with the approaching system.
The overall signal suggests an active weather period for the region
is becoming increasingly probable during the weekend into early next
week, with the potential for strong to severe weather and several
bouts of rainfall. Subsequent model runs will continue to help
better refine timing/locations of precipitation chances and the
potential severity of thunderstorm development.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period.
North northwesterly winds will gradually lessen and turn eastward by
late Tuesday morning, and skies will remain generally clear.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KSGF 220739
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
239 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Cold front has pushed through most of the forecast area so far
this morning with any remaining chance of showers ending as the
front passes through. Surface high pressure was building into the
area from the northwest with a quickly clearing sky behind the
front. Temperatures along the front were in the lower 60s but have
trailed off to the lower to middle 50s behind the front.

This forecast looks to be fairly active in the long term period
with some dry conditions over the first couple of days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Cold air advection is expected today as high pressure builds into
the area from the northwest. Despite the sunshine expected today,
temperatures are expected to rise into the mid 60s to lower 70s
for highs. A fairly amplified upper level ridge will then build
into the central U.S. tonight into Wednesday with a storm system
on either side of the ridge. One exiting the Atlantic coast, and
the other pushing out of the Rockies into the high Plains.
Temperatures on Wednesday should rebound back into the lower to
upper 70s. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain north
and west of the area across the Plains during the day Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

By late Wednesday night, upper level trough will shift into the
Plains with a cold front pushing into eastern Kansas. Some showers
and thunderstorms may affect the western portions of the forecast
area prior to sunrise Thursday. Due to the timing of the front,
the instability is expected to remain on the lower side as this
front and upper level energy push through Thursday. While
thunderstorms are expected, the severe weather risk will be minimal.
Most of the precipitation should exit the forecast area by the
early evening, with clearing taking place from northwest to southeast.

The amplified upper pattern will persist through the later part of
the week which will cause a large upper level low to develop in
the Plains this weekend and early next week. As one might expect
with this type of pattern, the models are struggling to come up
with similar solutions with each other or run to run. However, the
signal remains there for unsettled weather across the region as a
front hangs up in the area for a lengthy time and several waves of
upper level energy move into the region as well. Storm strength
and precipitation amounts will be dependent on where the front
positions itself. Current have the highest QPF across our northern
CWA which may see over an inch of rain during that time period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Some fog is developing where the sky
is clearing, but lower dew points have not advected into the area
from the nw, mainly close to a sfc boundary/cold front that is now
moving into se KS and west central MO. Will add some some brief
mvfr visibility, at least to KSGF and KJLN for now. As the light
winds shift to the northwest, believe enough mixing will occur to
limit fog development, but may have to watch KBBG later once the
more extensive cloud cover along the MO/AR border clears. High
pressure over the Plains will move into the region for Tue with
vfr conditions and a n-ne wind.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KSGF 220739
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
239 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Cold front has pushed through most of the forecast area so far
this morning with any remaining chance of showers ending as the
front passes through. Surface high pressure was building into the
area from the northwest with a quickly clearing sky behind the
front. Temperatures along the front were in the lower 60s but have
trailed off to the lower to middle 50s behind the front.

This forecast looks to be fairly active in the long term period
with some dry conditions over the first couple of days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Cold air advection is expected today as high pressure builds into
the area from the northwest. Despite the sunshine expected today,
temperatures are expected to rise into the mid 60s to lower 70s
for highs. A fairly amplified upper level ridge will then build
into the central U.S. tonight into Wednesday with a storm system
on either side of the ridge. One exiting the Atlantic coast, and
the other pushing out of the Rockies into the high Plains.
Temperatures on Wednesday should rebound back into the lower to
upper 70s. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain north
and west of the area across the Plains during the day Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

By late Wednesday night, upper level trough will shift into the
Plains with a cold front pushing into eastern Kansas. Some showers
and thunderstorms may affect the western portions of the forecast
area prior to sunrise Thursday. Due to the timing of the front,
the instability is expected to remain on the lower side as this
front and upper level energy push through Thursday. While
thunderstorms are expected, the severe weather risk will be minimal.
Most of the precipitation should exit the forecast area by the
early evening, with clearing taking place from northwest to southeast.

The amplified upper pattern will persist through the later part of
the week which will cause a large upper level low to develop in
the Plains this weekend and early next week. As one might expect
with this type of pattern, the models are struggling to come up
with similar solutions with each other or run to run. However, the
signal remains there for unsettled weather across the region as a
front hangs up in the area for a lengthy time and several waves of
upper level energy move into the region as well. Storm strength
and precipitation amounts will be dependent on where the front
positions itself. Current have the highest QPF across our northern
CWA which may see over an inch of rain during that time period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Some fog is developing where the sky
is clearing, but lower dew points have not advected into the area
from the nw, mainly close to a sfc boundary/cold front that is now
moving into se KS and west central MO. Will add some some brief
mvfr visibility, at least to KSGF and KJLN for now. As the light
winds shift to the northwest, believe enough mixing will occur to
limit fog development, but may have to watch KBBG later once the
more extensive cloud cover along the MO/AR border clears. High
pressure over the Plains will move into the region for Tue with
vfr conditions and a n-ne wind.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KLSX 220458
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1158 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 842 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

Band of showers along the cold front will continue to weaken as
they move southeast through 06Z.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

Cold front has moved into Missouri and will continue to track to the
southeast this evening. Showers and some thunderstorms have
developed ahead of cold front, but they will remain scattered in
nature before coming to an end late this evening. As for
temperatures, not a lot of caa behind this front so will have lows
in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

Skies to clear out by daybreak on Tuesday with north winds
persisting throughout the day. So a bit chillier but highs will be
in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Then surface ridge to move off to the east by Wednesday allowing
southerly winds to return ahead of next weather system. Highs on
Wednesday will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Showers and thunderstorms to develop along frontal boundary late
Wednesday night and spread east. Best chances of precipitation will
be during the day on Thursday. Front to move through during the
afternoon and evening hours with decent instability, i.e.
surface based capes between 500 and 1000 j/kg and deep layer shear
in excess of 40kts.  However, unsure yet what the severe potential
will be. As for highs on Thursday, they will be in the upper 60s to
low 70s.

Beyond that, next chance for precipitation will be Saturday night
through Monday. But extended models have timing and placement
issues, so no major changes at this time.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

Fog has developed across the region in areas where winds have
become calm and skies were starting to clear. The lower dew points
behind the cold front were filtering in to the region and wind
speeds were also increasing. These two factors will interfere with
fog formation with visibilities likely improving over the next
couple of hours once the front has moved through. Until then,
expect visibilities to vary from IFR (favored low spots and TAF
sites near rivers such as KSUS) to VFR. After the fog has
dissipated, VFR conditions are anticipated for the remainder of
the TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 220451
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1151 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

Shower activity has greatly diminished this afternoon as a weak surface
front/wind shift drops into east central KS and central MO.
Subsidence behind both this feature and a subtle wave aloft seem to
have kept a lot of the shower activity at bay this afternoon.
However, while the wind shift is pushing to the south of the Missouri
River, the main frontal boundary itself is just now entering far
southwest Iowa where dewpoints rapidly drop from the mid 50s into the
20s. Ahead of this line the airmass is showing signs of weak
destabilization over eastern KS and northern MO, and it`s still
possible if not likely for scattered thunderstorms to develop across
this area over the next couple of hours as the airmass continues to
destabilize and convergence increases along the elevated front in the
925 to 850 hPa layer. Will therefore hold on to 50-percent PoPs for
much of the area through early evening until the primary frontal
boundary pushes through. Anything that pops up will be short-lived
and unlikely to be strong.

Skies will rapidly clear from northwest to southeast this evening
as surface ridging begins to build in from the north. Low-level ridge
axis will become centered over the forecast area on Tuesday providing
clear skies and temperatures near average for mid/late April.

On Wednesday an upper-level trough will track out of the Rockies into
the High Plains bringing rising temperatures to our area and a threat
for strong storms to western parts of KS and OK. These storms will
reach their peak severity well to our west Wednesday afternoon and
early evening and should lose considerable strength by the time they
reach far eastern KS and western MO late Weds night and early Thurs
morning. However, the upper level trough will take a more negative
tilt as it approaches our area Wednesday night which will bring an
increase to wind fields at both the lower and middle levels and will
also allow for a broad increase in deep-layer ascent. Therefore while
the storms won`t be as strong, they will likely grow upscale in
coverage overnight and bring widespread rain to the area. Combined
with strong moisture transport within a strong low-level jet and
precipitable water values approaching 1.5 inches, some spots could
see an inch or more of rain with this system through Thursday
afternoon.

In a continued progressive upper-level pattern, ridging will be quick
to return to the region Thursday night and Friday keeping
temperatures near average. Models continue to advertise a deep storm
system ejecting into the Plains over the weekend into early next
week. This system has the potential to produce some active weather
across the central part of the country. While there is still
considerable variability among models, and thus plenty of room for
the track of this system to change, it currently appears the most
active weather will stay to our south keeping our area in the cool
and rainy sector as opposed to warm and stormy.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period.
North northwesterly winds will gradually lessen and turn eastward by
late Tuesday morning, and skies will remain generally clear.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KSGF 220430
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1130 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

An upper level trough is currently pushing across the southern
Plains early this morning. Showers and a few thunderstorms are
developing ahead of this feature across portions of Oklahoma,
eastern Kansas, and far western Missouri and Arkansas. Showers
with embedded thunderstorms will continue to develop and track
across the region through out the day today as the upper level
trough tracks east across the region. This activity will develop
on and off throughout the day. Shear and instability will be weak
enough where no severe weather will occur. A cold front will also
push south through the region this evening into tonight allowing
for scattered showers and thunderstorms to remain possible during
the evening hours. The rain will exit the area by around midnight
tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 234 PM CDT MON APR
21 2014

A fairly progressive pattern will dominate the Central CONUS over
the forecast period with a tendency toward greater amplitude...and
more dynamic systems approaching from the west later in the forecast
cycle.

For the immediate term...any residual rainfall or shower activity
this evening will taper off as the associated weak and positively
tilted upper trof moves eastward. Following the passage of this trof
a fairly strong upper ridge will shift eastward from the Rockies
bringing fair skies to the area into Wednesday night.

The second upper trof...neutrally tilted...will enter the plains
states late Wednesday Night and early Thursday...pushing through
Southern Missouri toward evening.  This system is somewhat stronger
than Monday nights but still tracks the strongest dynamics to the
north of the SGF CWA. I did include thunder in the forecast as Gulf
Moisture advection...wind shear and CAPE are all present in moderate
values but both most unstable and surface based cape values top out
in the 800J/KG to 1000J/KG range with surface dew points remaining
mostly in the upper 50s.  While some stronger storms are
possible...I do not see a high impact severe weather pattern setting
up at this time.

Upper ridging building into the Central CONUS will bring dry and
warm conditions to the area Thursday night through Friday night.
before a much more dynamic situation sets up for later Saturday into
Sunday Night.  A seasonably strong trof digging into the
Southwestern States Saturday Night into Sunday becomes cutoff and
nearly stationary over Eastern Colorado.  This pattern will serve
to pump an increasingly abundant flow of moist Gulf air northward
this weekend.

Both the GFS and ECMWF are indicating a rather dynamically strong
model solution for this weekends system in the Central CONUS.
With this system the pattern for a potential severe weather setup or
even possible heavy rainfall event is possible.  At this point the
forecast really depends on the exact track of the
system...timing...and dryline/warm frontal boundary setup. Forecast
moisture...wind shear and Cape all appear to be adequate and we will
closely monitor the specific evolution of this system this
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Some fog is developing where the sky
is clearing, but lower dew points have not advected into the area
from the nw, mainly close to a sfc boundary/cold front that is now
moving into se KS and west central MO. Will add some some brief
mvfr visibility, at least to KSGF and KJLN for now. As the light
winds shift to the northwest, believe enough mixing will occur to
limit fog development, but may have to watch KBBG later once the
more extensive cloud cover along the MO/AR border clears. High
pressure over the Plains will move into the region for Tue with
vfr conditions and a n-ne wind.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede/Colucci
LONG TERM...Colucci
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 220430
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1130 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

An upper level trough is currently pushing across the southern
Plains early this morning. Showers and a few thunderstorms are
developing ahead of this feature across portions of Oklahoma,
eastern Kansas, and far western Missouri and Arkansas. Showers
with embedded thunderstorms will continue to develop and track
across the region through out the day today as the upper level
trough tracks east across the region. This activity will develop
on and off throughout the day. Shear and instability will be weak
enough where no severe weather will occur. A cold front will also
push south through the region this evening into tonight allowing
for scattered showers and thunderstorms to remain possible during
the evening hours. The rain will exit the area by around midnight
tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 234 PM CDT MON APR
21 2014

A fairly progressive pattern will dominate the Central CONUS over
the forecast period with a tendency toward greater amplitude...and
more dynamic systems approaching from the west later in the forecast
cycle.

For the immediate term...any residual rainfall or shower activity
this evening will taper off as the associated weak and positively
tilted upper trof moves eastward. Following the passage of this trof
a fairly strong upper ridge will shift eastward from the Rockies
bringing fair skies to the area into Wednesday night.

The second upper trof...neutrally tilted...will enter the plains
states late Wednesday Night and early Thursday...pushing through
Southern Missouri toward evening.  This system is somewhat stronger
than Monday nights but still tracks the strongest dynamics to the
north of the SGF CWA. I did include thunder in the forecast as Gulf
Moisture advection...wind shear and CAPE are all present in moderate
values but both most unstable and surface based cape values top out
in the 800J/KG to 1000J/KG range with surface dew points remaining
mostly in the upper 50s.  While some stronger storms are
possible...I do not see a high impact severe weather pattern setting
up at this time.

Upper ridging building into the Central CONUS will bring dry and
warm conditions to the area Thursday night through Friday night.
before a much more dynamic situation sets up for later Saturday into
Sunday Night.  A seasonably strong trof digging into the
Southwestern States Saturday Night into Sunday becomes cutoff and
nearly stationary over Eastern Colorado.  This pattern will serve
to pump an increasingly abundant flow of moist Gulf air northward
this weekend.

Both the GFS and ECMWF are indicating a rather dynamically strong
model solution for this weekends system in the Central CONUS.
With this system the pattern for a potential severe weather setup or
even possible heavy rainfall event is possible.  At this point the
forecast really depends on the exact track of the
system...timing...and dryline/warm frontal boundary setup. Forecast
moisture...wind shear and Cape all appear to be adequate and we will
closely monitor the specific evolution of this system this
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Some fog is developing where the sky
is clearing, but lower dew points have not advected into the area
from the nw, mainly close to a sfc boundary/cold front that is now
moving into se KS and west central MO. Will add some some brief
mvfr visibility, at least to KSGF and KJLN for now. As the light
winds shift to the northwest, believe enough mixing will occur to
limit fog development, but may have to watch KBBG later once the
more extensive cloud cover along the MO/AR border clears. High
pressure over the Plains will move into the region for Tue with
vfr conditions and a n-ne wind.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede/Colucci
LONG TERM...Colucci
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 220430
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1130 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

An upper level trough is currently pushing across the southern
Plains early this morning. Showers and a few thunderstorms are
developing ahead of this feature across portions of Oklahoma,
eastern Kansas, and far western Missouri and Arkansas. Showers
with embedded thunderstorms will continue to develop and track
across the region through out the day today as the upper level
trough tracks east across the region. This activity will develop
on and off throughout the day. Shear and instability will be weak
enough where no severe weather will occur. A cold front will also
push south through the region this evening into tonight allowing
for scattered showers and thunderstorms to remain possible during
the evening hours. The rain will exit the area by around midnight
tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 234 PM CDT MON APR
21 2014

A fairly progressive pattern will dominate the Central CONUS over
the forecast period with a tendency toward greater amplitude...and
more dynamic systems approaching from the west later in the forecast
cycle.

For the immediate term...any residual rainfall or shower activity
this evening will taper off as the associated weak and positively
tilted upper trof moves eastward. Following the passage of this trof
a fairly strong upper ridge will shift eastward from the Rockies
bringing fair skies to the area into Wednesday night.

The second upper trof...neutrally tilted...will enter the plains
states late Wednesday Night and early Thursday...pushing through
Southern Missouri toward evening.  This system is somewhat stronger
than Monday nights but still tracks the strongest dynamics to the
north of the SGF CWA. I did include thunder in the forecast as Gulf
Moisture advection...wind shear and CAPE are all present in moderate
values but both most unstable and surface based cape values top out
in the 800J/KG to 1000J/KG range with surface dew points remaining
mostly in the upper 50s.  While some stronger storms are
possible...I do not see a high impact severe weather pattern setting
up at this time.

Upper ridging building into the Central CONUS will bring dry and
warm conditions to the area Thursday night through Friday night.
before a much more dynamic situation sets up for later Saturday into
Sunday Night.  A seasonably strong trof digging into the
Southwestern States Saturday Night into Sunday becomes cutoff and
nearly stationary over Eastern Colorado.  This pattern will serve
to pump an increasingly abundant flow of moist Gulf air northward
this weekend.

Both the GFS and ECMWF are indicating a rather dynamically strong
model solution for this weekends system in the Central CONUS.
With this system the pattern for a potential severe weather setup or
even possible heavy rainfall event is possible.  At this point the
forecast really depends on the exact track of the
system...timing...and dryline/warm frontal boundary setup. Forecast
moisture...wind shear and Cape all appear to be adequate and we will
closely monitor the specific evolution of this system this
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Some fog is developing where the sky
is clearing, but lower dew points have not advected into the area
from the nw, mainly close to a sfc boundary/cold front that is now
moving into se KS and west central MO. Will add some some brief
mvfr visibility, at least to KSGF and KJLN for now. As the light
winds shift to the northwest, believe enough mixing will occur to
limit fog development, but may have to watch KBBG later once the
more extensive cloud cover along the MO/AR border clears. High
pressure over the Plains will move into the region for Tue with
vfr conditions and a n-ne wind.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede/Colucci
LONG TERM...Colucci
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 220430
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1130 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

An upper level trough is currently pushing across the southern
Plains early this morning. Showers and a few thunderstorms are
developing ahead of this feature across portions of Oklahoma,
eastern Kansas, and far western Missouri and Arkansas. Showers
with embedded thunderstorms will continue to develop and track
across the region through out the day today as the upper level
trough tracks east across the region. This activity will develop
on and off throughout the day. Shear and instability will be weak
enough where no severe weather will occur. A cold front will also
push south through the region this evening into tonight allowing
for scattered showers and thunderstorms to remain possible during
the evening hours. The rain will exit the area by around midnight
tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 234 PM CDT MON APR
21 2014

A fairly progressive pattern will dominate the Central CONUS over
the forecast period with a tendency toward greater amplitude...and
more dynamic systems approaching from the west later in the forecast
cycle.

For the immediate term...any residual rainfall or shower activity
this evening will taper off as the associated weak and positively
tilted upper trof moves eastward. Following the passage of this trof
a fairly strong upper ridge will shift eastward from the Rockies
bringing fair skies to the area into Wednesday night.

The second upper trof...neutrally tilted...will enter the plains
states late Wednesday Night and early Thursday...pushing through
Southern Missouri toward evening.  This system is somewhat stronger
than Monday nights but still tracks the strongest dynamics to the
north of the SGF CWA. I did include thunder in the forecast as Gulf
Moisture advection...wind shear and CAPE are all present in moderate
values but both most unstable and surface based cape values top out
in the 800J/KG to 1000J/KG range with surface dew points remaining
mostly in the upper 50s.  While some stronger storms are
possible...I do not see a high impact severe weather pattern setting
up at this time.

Upper ridging building into the Central CONUS will bring dry and
warm conditions to the area Thursday night through Friday night.
before a much more dynamic situation sets up for later Saturday into
Sunday Night.  A seasonably strong trof digging into the
Southwestern States Saturday Night into Sunday becomes cutoff and
nearly stationary over Eastern Colorado.  This pattern will serve
to pump an increasingly abundant flow of moist Gulf air northward
this weekend.

Both the GFS and ECMWF are indicating a rather dynamically strong
model solution for this weekends system in the Central CONUS.
With this system the pattern for a potential severe weather setup or
even possible heavy rainfall event is possible.  At this point the
forecast really depends on the exact track of the
system...timing...and dryline/warm frontal boundary setup. Forecast
moisture...wind shear and Cape all appear to be adequate and we will
closely monitor the specific evolution of this system this
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Some fog is developing where the sky
is clearing, but lower dew points have not advected into the area
from the nw, mainly close to a sfc boundary/cold front that is now
moving into se KS and west central MO. Will add some some brief
mvfr visibility, at least to KSGF and KJLN for now. As the light
winds shift to the northwest, believe enough mixing will occur to
limit fog development, but may have to watch KBBG later once the
more extensive cloud cover along the MO/AR border clears. High
pressure over the Plains will move into the region for Tue with
vfr conditions and a n-ne wind.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede/Colucci
LONG TERM...Colucci
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KLSX 220144
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
844 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 842 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

Band of showers along the cold front will continue to weaken as
they move southeast through 06Z.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

Cold front has moved into Missouri and will continue to track to the
southeast this evening. Showers and some thunderstorms have
developed ahead of cold front, but they will remain scattered in
nature before coming to an end late this evening. As for
temperatures, not a lot of caa behind this front so will have lows
in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

Skies to clear out by daybreak on Tuesday with north winds
persisting throughout the day. So a bit chillier but highs will be
in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Then surface ridge to move off to the east by Wednesday allowing
southerly winds to return ahead of next weather system. Highs on
Wednesday will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Showers and thunderstorms to develop along frontal boundary late
Wednesday night and spread east. Best chances of precipitation will
be during the day on Thursday. Front to move through during the
afternoon and evening hours with decent instability, i.e.
surface based capes between 500 and 1000 j/kg and deep layer shear
in excess of 40kts.  However, unsure yet what the severe potential
will be. As for highs on Thursday, they will be in the upper 60s to
low 70s.

Beyond that, next chance for precipitation will be Saturday night
through Monday. But extended models have timing and placement
issues, so no major changes at this time.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Expect variable flight conditions over
the next 6 hours with improvement expected by 9-12 hours at the
latest. An area of SHRA/TSRA was affecting KCOU at TAF issuance
and a second line was located north and west of KUIN. This second
line is associated with a cold front and will probably move
through KUIN, but instability might not be sufficient for it to
reach KCOU. The additional low-level moisture provided by
scattered SHRA/TSRA could help ceilings lower to MVFR for a couple
of hours this evening until the cold front moves through later
tonight. Winds become northwest to north after FROPA.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Expect variable flight conditions
over the next 6 hours with improvement expected by 9-12 hours. An
area of SHRA/TSRA stretched roughly from KCOU to KPPQ at TAF
issuance and was moving southeastward. Some spotty showers are
possible at metro area TAF sites before this broader area of
precip reaches the terminals. A second line of SHRA/TSRA was
located farther northwest and was associated with a cold front.
There is some question about whether or not the instability will
be sufficient for this line to hold together long enough to reach
KSTL/KSUS/KCPS. The additional low-level moisture provided by
scattered SHRA/TSRA could help ceilings lower to MVFR for a couple
of hours this evening until the cold front moves through
overnight. Winds become northwest to north after FROPA.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 212348
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
648 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

Cold front has moved into Missouri and will continue to track to the
southeast this evening. Showers and some thunderstorms have
developed ahead of cold front, but they will remain scattered in
nature before coming to an end late this evening. As for
temperatures, not a lot of caa behind this front so will have lows
in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

Skies to clear out by daybreak on Tuesday with north winds
persisting throughout the day. So a bit chillier but highs will be
in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Then surface ridge to move off to the east by Wednesday allowing
southerly winds to return ahead of next weather system. Highs on
Wednesday will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Showers and thunderstorms to develop along frontal boundary late
Wednesday night and spread east. Best chances of precipitation will
be during the day on Thursday. Front to move through during the
afternoon and evening hours with decent instability, i.e.
surface based capes between 500 and 1000 j/kg and deep layer shear
in excess of 40kts.  However, unsure yet what the severe potential
will be. As for highs on Thursday, they will be in the upper 60s to
low 70s.

Beyond that, next chance for precipitation will be Saturday night
through Monday. But extended models have timing and placement
issues, so no major changes at this time.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Expect variable flight conditions over
the next 6 hours with improvement expected by 9-12 hours at the
latest. An area of SHRA/TSRA was affecting KCOU at TAF issuance
and a second line was located north and west of KUIN. This second
line is associated with a cold front and will probably move
through KUIN, but instability might not be sufficient for it to
reach KCOU. The additional low-level moisture provided by
scattered SHRA/TSRA could help ceilings lower to MVFR for a couple
of hours this evening until the cold front moves through later
tonight. Winds become northwest to north after FROPA.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Expect variable flight conditions
over the next 6 hours with improvement expected by 9-12 hours. An
area of SHRA/TSRA stretched roughly from KCOU to KPPQ at TAF
issuance and was moving southeastward. Some spotty showers are
possible at metro area TAF sites before this broader area of
precip reaches the terminals. A second line of SHRA/TSRA was
located farther northwest and was associated with a cold front.
There is some question about whether or not the instability will
be sufficient for this line to hold together long enough to reach
KSTL/KSUS/KCPS. The additional low-level moisture provided by
scattered SHRA/TSRA could help ceilings lower to MVFR for a couple
of hours this evening until the cold front moves through
overnight. Winds become northwest to north after FROPA.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 212340
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
640 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

An upper level trough is currently pushing across the southern
Plains early this morning. Showers and a few thunderstorms are
developing ahead of this feature across portions of Oklahoma,
eastern Kansas, and far western Missouri and Arkansas. Showers
with embedded thunderstorms will continue to develop and track
across the region through out the day today as the upper level
trough tracks east across the region. This activity will develop
on and off throughout the day. Shear and instability will be weak
enough where no severe weather will occur. A cold front will also
push south through the region this evening into tonight allowing
for scattered showers and thunderstorms to remain possible during
the evening hours. The rain will exit the area by around midnight
tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 234 PM CDT MON APR
21 2014

A fairly progressive pattern will dominate the Central CONUS over
the forecast period with a tendency toward greater amplitude...and
more dynamic systems approaching from the west later in the forecast
cycle.

For the immediate term...any residual rainfall or shower activity
this evening will taper off as the associated weak and positively
tilted upper trof moves eastward. Following the passage of this trof
a fairly strong upper ridge will shift eastward from the Rockies
bringing fair skies to the area into Wednesday night.

The second upper trof...neutrally tilted...will enter the plains
states late Wednesday Night and early Thursday...pushing through
Southern Missouri toward evening.  This system is somewhat stronger
than Monday nights but still tracks the strongest dynamics to the
north of the SGF CWA. I did include thunder in the forecast as Gulf
Moisture advection...wind shear and CAPE are all present in moderate
values but both most unstable and surface based cape values top out
in the 800J/KG to 1000J/KG range with surface dew points remaining
mostly in the upper 50s.  While some stronger storms are
possible...I do not see a high impact severe weather pattern setting
up at this time.

Upper ridging building into the Central CONUS will bring dry and
warm conditions to the area Thursday night through Friday night.
before a much more dynamic situation sets up for later Saturday into
Sunday Night.  A seasonably strong trof digging into the
Southwestern States Saturday Night into Sunday becomes cutoff and
nearly stationary over Eastern Colorado.  This pattern will serve
to pump an increasingly abundant flow of moist Gulf air northward
this weekend.

Both the GFS and ECMWF are indicating a rather dynamically strong
model solution for this weekends system in the Central CONUS.
With this system the pattern for a potential severe weather setup or
even possible heavy rainfall event is possible.  At this point the
forecast really depends on the exact track of the
system...timing...and dryline/warm frontal boundary setup. Forecast
moisture...wind shear and Cape all appear to be adequate and we will
closely monitor the specific evolution of this system this
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A sfc front just to the northwest of
KSGF and KJLN along with diurnal heating is aiding in some wdly
sct/isold tstms, and will maintain a mention of this in those tafs
through 01z. Other scattered showers and tstms are also occurring
along and just south of MO/AR border closer to an upper level
disturbance, and will use the same timing strategy for KBBG. The
front will with gradually veer light winds to the northwest and north
over the next few hours as high pressure moves south into the
central Plains. Drier air will gradually move into the area with
VFR conditions expected during the day Tue.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede/Colucci
LONG TERM...Colucci
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 212340
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
640 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

An upper level trough is currently pushing across the southern
Plains early this morning. Showers and a few thunderstorms are
developing ahead of this feature across portions of Oklahoma,
eastern Kansas, and far western Missouri and Arkansas. Showers
with embedded thunderstorms will continue to develop and track
across the region through out the day today as the upper level
trough tracks east across the region. This activity will develop
on and off throughout the day. Shear and instability will be weak
enough where no severe weather will occur. A cold front will also
push south through the region this evening into tonight allowing
for scattered showers and thunderstorms to remain possible during
the evening hours. The rain will exit the area by around midnight
tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 234 PM CDT MON APR
21 2014

A fairly progressive pattern will dominate the Central CONUS over
the forecast period with a tendency toward greater amplitude...and
more dynamic systems approaching from the west later in the forecast
cycle.

For the immediate term...any residual rainfall or shower activity
this evening will taper off as the associated weak and positively
tilted upper trof moves eastward. Following the passage of this trof
a fairly strong upper ridge will shift eastward from the Rockies
bringing fair skies to the area into Wednesday night.

The second upper trof...neutrally tilted...will enter the plains
states late Wednesday Night and early Thursday...pushing through
Southern Missouri toward evening.  This system is somewhat stronger
than Monday nights but still tracks the strongest dynamics to the
north of the SGF CWA. I did include thunder in the forecast as Gulf
Moisture advection...wind shear and CAPE are all present in moderate
values but both most unstable and surface based cape values top out
in the 800J/KG to 1000J/KG range with surface dew points remaining
mostly in the upper 50s.  While some stronger storms are
possible...I do not see a high impact severe weather pattern setting
up at this time.

Upper ridging building into the Central CONUS will bring dry and
warm conditions to the area Thursday night through Friday night.
before a much more dynamic situation sets up for later Saturday into
Sunday Night.  A seasonably strong trof digging into the
Southwestern States Saturday Night into Sunday becomes cutoff and
nearly stationary over Eastern Colorado.  This pattern will serve
to pump an increasingly abundant flow of moist Gulf air northward
this weekend.

Both the GFS and ECMWF are indicating a rather dynamically strong
model solution for this weekends system in the Central CONUS.
With this system the pattern for a potential severe weather setup or
even possible heavy rainfall event is possible.  At this point the
forecast really depends on the exact track of the
system...timing...and dryline/warm frontal boundary setup. Forecast
moisture...wind shear and Cape all appear to be adequate and we will
closely monitor the specific evolution of this system this
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A sfc front just to the northwest of
KSGF and KJLN along with diurnal heating is aiding in some wdly
sct/isold tstms, and will maintain a mention of this in those tafs
through 01z. Other scattered showers and tstms are also occurring
along and just south of MO/AR border closer to an upper level
disturbance, and will use the same timing strategy for KBBG. The
front will with gradually veer light winds to the northwest and north
over the next few hours as high pressure moves south into the
central Plains. Drier air will gradually move into the area with
VFR conditions expected during the day Tue.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede/Colucci
LONG TERM...Colucci
AVIATION...DSA








000
FXUS63 KEAX 212325
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
625 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

Shower activity has greatly diminished this afternoon as a weak surface
front/wind shift drops into east central KS and central MO.
Subsidence behind both this feature and a subtle wave aloft seem to
have kept a lot of the shower activity at bay this afternoon.
However, while the wind shift is pushing to the south of the Missouri
River, the main frontal boundary itself is just now entering far
southwest Iowa where dewpoints rapidly drop from the mid 50s into the
20s. Ahead of this line the airmass is showing signs of weak
destabilization over eastern KS and northern MO, and it`s still
possible if not likely for scattered thunderstorms to develop across
this area over the next couple of hours as the airmass continues to
destabilize and convergence increases along the elevated front in the
925 to 850 hPa layer. Will therefore hold on to 50-percent PoPs for
much of the area through early evening until the primary frontal
boundary pushes through. Anything that pops up will be short-lived
and unlikely to be strong.

Skies will rapidly clear from northwest to southeast this evening
as surface ridging begins to build in from the north. Low-level ridge
axis will become centered over the forecast area on Tuesday providing
clear skies and temperatures near average for mid/late April.

On Wednesday an upper-level trough will track out of the Rockies into
the High Plains bringing rising temperatures to our area and a threat
for strong storms to western parts of KS and OK. These storms will
reach their peak severity well to our west Wednesday afternoon and
early evening and should lose considerable strength by the time they
reach far eastern KS and western MO late Weds night and early Thurs
morning. However, the upper level trough will take a more negative
tilt as it approaches our area Wednesday night which will bring an
increase to wind fields at both the lower and middle levels and will
also allow for a broad increase in deep-layer ascent. Therefore while
the storms won`t be as strong, they will likely grow upscale in
coverage overnight and bring widespread rain to the area. Combined
with strong moisture transport within a strong low-level jet and
precipitable water values approaching 1.5 inches, some spots could
see an inch or more of rain with this system through Thursday
afternoon.

In a continued progressive upper-level pattern, ridging will be quick
to return to the region Thursday night and Friday keeping
temperatures near average. Models continue to advertise a deep storm
system ejecting into the Plains over the weekend into early next
week. This system has the potential to produce some active weather
across the central part of the country. While there is still
considerable variability among models, and thus plenty of room for
the track of this system to change, it currently appears the most
active weather will stay to our south keeping our area in the cool
and rainy sector as opposed to warm and stormy.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

A southeastward-moving cold front is currently bi-secting the
forecast area, and will continue to slide out of the region over
the next 3-4 hours. Scattered to broken ceilings between 4-5 kft
and isolated thunderstorms are possible just ahead of and along
the front, and briefly gusty north winds are expected just behind.
Clear skies and diminishing winds are anticipated after the front
passes.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 212024
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
324 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

Shower activity has greatly diminished this afternoon as a weak surface
front/wind shift drops into east central KS and central MO.
Subsidence behind both this feature and a subtle wave aloft seem to
have kept a lot of the shower activity at bay this afternoon.
However, while the wind shift is pushing to the south of the Missouri
River, the main frontal boundary itself is just now entering far
southwest Iowa where dewpoints rapidly drop from the mid 50s into the
20s. Ahead of this line the airmass is showing signs of weak
destabilization over eastern KS and northern MO, and it`s still
possible if not likely for scattered thunderstorms to develop across
this area over the next couple of hours as the airmass continues to
destabilize and convergence increases along the elevated front in the
925 to 850 hPa layer. Will therefore hold on to 50-percent PoPs for
much of the area through early evening until the primary frontal
boundary pushes through. Anything that pops up will be short-lived
and unlikely to be strong.

Skies will rapidly clear from northwest to southeast this evening
as surface ridging begins to build in from the north. Low-level ridge
axis will become centered over the forecast area on Tuesday providing
clear skies and temperatures near average for mid/late April.

On Wednesday an upper-level trough will track out of the Rockies into
the High Plains bringing rising temperatures to our area and a threat
for strong storms to western parts of KS and OK. These storms will
reach their peak severity well to our west Wednesday afternoon and
early evening and should lose considerable strength by the time they
reach far eastern KS and western MO late Weds night and early Thurs
morning. However, the upper level trough will take a more negative
tilt as it approaches our area Wednesday night which will bring an
increase to wind fields at both the lower and middle levels and will
also allow for a broad increase in deep-layer ascent. Therefore while
the storms won`t be as strong, they will likely grow upscale in
coverage overnight and bring widespread rain to the area. Combined
with strong moisture transport within a strong low-level jet and
precipitable water values approaching 1.5 inches, some spots could
see an inch or more of rain with this system through Thursday
afternoon.

In a continued progressive upper-level pattern, ridging will be quick
to return to the region Thursday night and Friday keeping
temperatures near average. Models continue to advertise a deep storm
system ejecting into the Plains over the weekend into early next
week. This system has the potential to produce some active weather
across the central part of the country. While there is still
considerable variability among models, and thus plenty of room for
the track of this system to change, it currently appears the most
active weather will stay to our south keeping our area in the cool
and rainy sector as opposed to warm and stormy.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

Weak cold front is currently tracking through Kansas City, although
breaks in the clouds behind the front is actually allowing
temperatures to warm a bit. This may allow scattered thunderstorms to
develop behind the front through the afternoon, but any impacts to
the terminals should be limited to brief downpours. No significant wind
concerns with any storms that develop.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel








000
FXUS63 KLSX 212011
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
311 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

Cold front has moved into Missouri and will continue to track to the
southeast this evening. Showers and some thunderstorms have
developed ahead of cold front, but they will remain scattered in
nature before coming to an end late this evening. As for
temperatures, not a lot of caa behind this front so will have lows
in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

Skies to clear out by daybreak on Tuesday with north winds
persisting throughout the day. So a bit chillier but highs will be
in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Then surface ridge to move off to the east by Wednesday allowing
southerly winds to return ahead of next weather system. Highs on
Wednesday will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Showers and thunderstorms to develop along frontal boundary late
Wednesday night and spread east. Best chances of precipitation will
be during the day on Thursday. Front to move through during the
afternoon and evening hours with decent instability, i.e.
surface based capes between 500 and 1000 j/kg and deep layer shear
in excess of 40kts.  However, unsure yet what the severe potential
will be. As for highs on Thursday, they will be in the upper 60s to
low 70s.

Beyond that, next chance for precipitation will be Saturday night
through Monday. But extended models have timing and placement
issues, so no major changes at this time.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1056 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

At least scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon into the early evening hours as an upper level
disturbance moves eastward through the region, while a cold front
moves southeastward through the taf sites late this afternoon and
this evening. Looking at the latest radar trends it appears that
most of the shower activity early this afternoon should occur in
the UIN area, but showers and storms should develop in the COU
area later this afternoon and move through the St Louis metro area
particularly during the early evening hours. Although prevailing
conditions have been VFR outside of the showers so far, some of
the MVFR cigs over western MO will likely advect into the region
later this afternoon, plus there will likely be some MVFR cigs
just behind the cold front. Mainly southwesterly winds will veer
around to a northwesterly direction after fropa. The clouds
should clear out fairly quickly this evening in UIN and COU and
overnight in the St Louis metro area as a relatively strong
surface ridge builds southeastward into the region behind the cold
front.

Specifics for KSTL: Looks like a break in the shower activity
early this afternoon, but model guidance indicates that showers
and storms will develop and move through the STL area late this
afternoon and early this evening. These showers and storms should
shift southeast of STL by 04z Tuesday after fropa with the wind
veering around to a northwesterly direction. Will have VFR
conditions early this afternoon until the showers and storms move
into the area with the lowest prevailing cloud ceilings likely
this evening, possibly briefly down to around 1000-2000 ft. The
clouds should clear out shortly after 06z Tuesday.

GKS
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KSGF 211925
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
225 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

An upper level trough is currently pushing across the southern
Plains early this morning. Showers and a few thunderstorms are
developing ahead of this feature across portions of Oklahoma,
eastern Kansas, and far western Missouri and Arkansas. Showers
with embedded thunderstorms will continue to develop and track
across the region through out the day today as the upper level
trough tracks east across the region. This activity will develop
on and off throughout the day. Shear and instability will be weak
enough where no severe weather will occur. A cold front will also
push south through the region this evening into tonight allowing
for scattered showers and thunderstorms to remain possible during
the evening hours. The rain will exit the area by around midnight
tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 234 PM CDT MON APR
21 2014

A fairly progressive pattern will dominate the Central CONUS over
the forecast period with a tendency toward greater amplitude...and
more dynamic systems approaching from the west later in the forecast
cycle.

For the immediate term...any residual rainfall or shower activity
this evening will taper off as the associated weak and positively
tilted upper trof moves eastward. Following the passage of this trof
a fairly strong upper ridge will shift eastward from the Rockies
bringing fair skies to the area into Wednesday night.

The second upper trof...neutrally tilted...will enter the plains
states late Wednesday Night and early Thursday...pushing through
Southern Missouri toward evening.  This system is somewhat stronger
than Monday nights but still tracks the strongest dynamics to the
north of the SGF CWA. I did include thunder in the forecast as Gulf
Moisture advection...wind shear and CAPE are all present in moderate
values but both most unstable and surface based cape values top out
in the 800J/KG to 1000J/KG range with surface dew points remaining
mostly in the upper 50s.  While some stronger storms are
possible...I do not see a high impact severe weather pattern setting
up at this time.

Upper ridging building into the Central CONUS will bring dry and
warm conditions to the area Thursday night through Friday night.
before a much more dynamic situation sets up for later Saturday into
Sunday Night.  A seasonably strong trof digging into the
Southwestern States Saturday Night into Sunday becomes cutoff and
nearly stationary over Eastern Colorado.  This pattern will serve
to pump an increasingly abundant flow of moist Gulf air northward
this weekend.

Both the GFS and ECMWF are indicating a rather dynamically strong
model solution for this weekends system in the Central CONUS.
With this system the pattern for a potential severe weather setup or
even possible heavy rainfall event is possible.  At this point the
forecast really depends on the exact track of the
system...timing...and dryline/warm frontal boundary setup. Forecast
moisture...wind shear and Cape all appear to be adequate and we will
closely monitor the specific evolution of this system this
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...MVFR conditions exist across the
region at this time with isolated IFR here and there. Surface cold
front extends from about KFNB-KICT-KWDG at this hour. Most of the
rainfall activity is located from northeastern OK into southwestern MO.

Expect MVFR conditions to prevail through the afternoon hours
until the front pushes through between 00-02z. Kept VCTS in for
convective activity just ahead of the front. Could occasionally
see isolated IFR ceilings with some of the convective
activity...but probability is not high enough to include in the
TAFS.

Once the front passes...conditions should improve to VFR with a
mid layer cloud deck. Expect clearing skies after 06z with light
northwest winds through the remainder of the TAF period.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede/Colucci
LONG TERM...Colucci
AVIATION...Gaede







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