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000
FXUS63 KSGF 260441
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1141 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

...06z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

An upper level ridge that is currently over the plains will
continue to slide east and over the region on Sunday. Southerly
winds will increase and be breezy on both Sunday and Monday. Wind
gust up to 30 mph will be possible both days across mainly
southeastern Kansas and the western Ozarks both afternoons.

Highs will be slightly warmer Sunday than those occurring this
afternoon, as they warm into the middle 80s with the ridge
overhead. The ridge will then start to slide east of the area on
Monday as an upper level trough pushes into the plains.
Temperatures will still be well above normal as they warm into the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

The upper level trough and a surface cold front will push to the
southeast through the area late Monday evening into Tuesday.
Showers are expected to develop along and behind the front as it
pushes through the region. There will be enough instability for
some embedded rumbles of thunder within the showers. No severe
weather is expected. The rain will push south of the area Tuesday
afternoon.

A more seasonable airmass for late October will spread into the
region behind the front for the middle portions of the week. Highs
in the 60s and lows in the 40s can be expected Tuesday through
Thursday.

Another upper level trough will push through the region late in
the week into next weekend. At this time not expected much in the
way of any rain with this system as there will not be a lot of
moisture to work with. This system is expected to bring an even
cooler airmass to the region for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Mostly VFR conditions will prevail through Sunday evening. The
only minor change with this TAF update is to include a TEMPO group
from 10z to 14z in the morning for some MVFR 5sm visibilities
potential. Skies will remain clear through tomorrow night with
southerly winds becoming somewhat gusty for JLN and SGF midday to
afternoon on Sunday.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 328 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Record high temperatures this weekend:

           10/25      10/26
         Today(Sat)    Sun

SGF       85/1939    86/1891
JLN       87/1944    87/1950
UNO       83/1952    84/1950
VIH       83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Griffin
CLIMATE...Wise






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000
FXUS63 KLSX 260414
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1114 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Monday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

Although it`s hard to believe based on afternoon temperatures in
the mid-70s to lower 80s, a weak cold front did move into the CWA
earlier this morning before stalling out. A surface high moving
through the western Great Lakes will nudge the stalled front a bit
farther south tonight before the boundary lifts back northeastward
as a warm front. A band of clouds may accompany the warm frontal
passage late tonight and tomorrow, although cloud cover should be
greater over the plains compared to eastern MO and western IL.
Some fog is also possible overnight ahead of the surface front,
mainly in central MO and parts of the eastern Ozarks, because dew
points should be a bit higher there compared to areas which will
still be under the influence of the surface ridge and its drier
air. Unseasonably warm temperatures (15-20 deg above average) are
expected again on Sunday and Monday.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM: (Monday night through Next Saturday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

A low pressure system was noted off the CA/OR coastline this
morning, and this system will ultimately bring a chance of
widespread rain to the area on Monday night and Tuesday. Models
depict a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE on Monday night, which should
be sufficient for a few embedded thunderstorms. Comparatively
speaking, a much cooler air mass will then spread across the
region on Tuesday and Tuesday night, ending the recent string of
unseasonably warm October days.

Isolated to scattered showers are possible on Wednesday night into
Thursday due to lift ahead of a shortwave which will be moving
through northwest flow.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

A surface ridge centered over MN and IA will drop southeastward
through IL late tonight. Light nely surface winds will veer
around to an ely direction late tonight. With a clear sky and
light surface wind there may be some fog late tonight/early Sunday
morning in COU, SUS and CPS where the surface dew points will be a
little higher. The surface wind will strengthen from a sely
direction on Sunday as the surface ridge shifts east of the area
and a warm front approaches. There will likely be scattered
diurnal cumulus clouds late Sunday morning and afternoon as the
boundary layer moistens ahead of the warm front.

Specifics for KSTL: A clear sky and light surface wind late tonight.
The surface wind will increase to 9-10 kts Sunday afternoon from a
sely direction. There will likely be scattered diurnal cumulus
clouds Sunday afternoon.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






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000
FXUS63 KEAX 252322
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
622 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 407 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Tonight - Sunday:

Main challenge will be another night where we will be dealing with
fog in parts of the CWA and then summer-like high temperatures. Weak
high pressure nosing into northern MO will push no further overnight
with plenty of residual moisture around to aid in fog and stratus
formation. Latest SREF visibility prog and WRF Simulated GOES-R
product favor fog forming from southern NE into west central MO and
see no reason for it not to form. Main question is whether or not
dense fog will form. Light southeast winds vs near calm winds last
night suggests any dense fog should be patchy vs widespread.

Inspection of NAM/GFS Bufr soundings and NAM/GFS/ECMWF 925mb
condensation pressure deficits also support a band of stratus
forming north of a warm front which is progged to lie from north
central KS into central MO by 12z Sunday. As the warm front lifts
north the attendant cloud cover will likewise head north but
probably break up with time. Should the cloud cover linger into the
afternoon then current max temperature forecast over northern MO may
be too optimistic. Otherwise, falling heights spreading eastward
from the Central High Plains ahead of an upper trough plowing into
the Rockies will send a surge of strong warm air advection into the
CWA. +22C to +24C air at 925mb will enter into the southwestern
CWA which could threaten the record high for Kansas City which is 87
degrees.

Monday/Monday Night:

The above mentioned Rockies upper trough will continue eastward on
Monday with weak impulses aloft embedded in the southwest flow
zipping northeast from the Southern Rockies through the Mid MO
Valley. NAM/GFS/ECMWF models are similar in handling these features
and the associated cold front which will slide through the CWA.
Scattered light convection possible with the coverage increasing
further southeast as it will take some time for the modified gulf
moisture to work its way northeast. So, will maintain the northwest
to southeast stratification of PoPs. One more day of much above
average temperatures expected.

Tuesday - Saturday:

The upper trough will be amplifying early in the period as it tracks
through the Great Lakes. Although moderately strong cold air
advection will make its presence known temperatures on Tuesday
through Thursday will only revert back to where we should be for
late October. Both days should be dry.

The extratropical remains of Ana in the form of a loosely held
together shortwave trough will dive southeast from the Northern
Rockies in response to the upper ridge reforming over the
intermountain region. Always need to be aware of systems traveling
within northwest flow and believe there is a need to at least add
slight chance PoPs for Wednesday night as increasing PVA wrings out
the mid level moisture. The passage of the upper trough axis will
mark the arrival of much drier and colder air as Canadian high
pressure swoops in. By Saturday morning sub-freezing morning
temperatures could threaten northern MO.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 616 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR before generally MVFR conditions during the early morning hours.
Short-term models continue to suggest drier air mass behind boundary
to settle just south of the KC Metro area, with the greatest
potential for dense fog just west/south of terminals. Sites have a
better chance for low stratus near the MVFR/IFR category as opposed
to fog, beginning 09Z and mixing out around 16Z, with IXD being the
exception to see a better shot at IFR fog and perhaps STJ with local
terrain effects. Cannot completely rule out periodic IFR conditions
from shallow fog or stratus, but predictability would appear too low
for prevailing forecast at this time. Otherwise, gusty southeast
winds expected tomorrow.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KLSX 252303
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
603 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Monday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

Although it`s hard to believe based on afternoon temperatures in
the mid-70s to lower 80s, a weak cold front did move into the CWA
earlier this morning before stalling out. A surface high moving
through the western Great Lakes will nudge the stalled front a bit
farther south tonight before the boundary lifts back northeastward
as a warm front. A band of clouds may accompany the warm frontal
passage late tonight and tomorrow, although cloud cover should be
greater over the plains compared to eastern MO and western IL.
Some fog is also possible overnight ahead of the surface front,
mainly in central MO and parts of the eastern Ozarks, because dew
points should be a bit higher there compared to areas which will
still be under the influence of the surface ridge and its drier
air. Unseasonably warm temperatures (15-20 deg above average) are
expected again on Sunday and Monday.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM: (Monday night through Next Saturday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

A low pressure system was noted off the CA/OR coastline this
morning, and this system will ultimately bring a chance of
widespread rain to the area on Monday night and Tuesday. Models
depict a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE on Monday night, which should
be sufficient for a few embedded thunderstorms. Comparatively
speaking, a much cooler air mass will then spread across the
region on Tuesday and Tuesday night, ending the recent string of
unseasonably warm October days.

Isolated to scattered showers are possible on Wednesday night into
Thursday due to lift ahead of a shortwave which will be moving
through northwest flow.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 527 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

A surface ridge over the northern Plains will drop southeastward
through IA and IL tonight. Surface winds will veer around to a
e-nely direction tonight, albeit quite light. With a clear sky and
light surface wind there may be some fog late tonight/early Sunday
morning, mainly in the COU area where the surface dew points will
be a little higher. The surface wind will strengthen from a sely
direction on Sunday as the surface ridge shifts east of the area
and a warm front approaches. There will likely be scattered
diurnal cumulus clouds late Sunday morning and afternoon as the
boundary layer moistens ahead of the warm front.

Specifics for KSTL: A clear sky and light surface wind tonight.
The surface wind will increase to around 9 kts Sunday afternoon
from a sely direction. There will likely be scattered diurnal
cumulus clouds Sunday afternoon.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 252246
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
546 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

...00z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

An upper level ridge that is currently over the plains will
continue to slide east and over the region on Sunday. Southerly
winds will increase and be breezy on both Sunday and Monday. Wind
gust up to 30 mph will be possible both days across mainly
southeastern Kansas and the western Ozarks both afternoons.

Highs will be slightly warmer Sunday than those occurring this
afternoon, as they warm into the middle 80s with the ridge
overhead. The ridge will then start to slide east of the area on
Monday as an upper level trough pushes into the plains.
Temperatures will still be well above normal as they warm into the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

The upper level trough and a surface cold front will push to the
southeast through the area late Monday evening into Tuesday.
Showers are expected to develop along and behind the front as it
pushes through the region. There will be enough instability for
some embedded rumbles of thunder within the showers. No severe
weather is expected. The rain will push south of the area Tuesday
afternoon.

A more seasonable airmass for late October will spread into the
region behind the front for the middle portions of the week. Highs
in the 60s and lows in the 40s can be expected Tuesday through
Thursday.

Another upper level trough will push through the region late in
the week into next weekend. At this time not expected much in the
way of any rain with this system as there will not be a lot of
moisture to work with. This system is expected to bring an even
cooler airmass to the region for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 519 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

There are no aviation concerns for pilots flying in and out of the
Missouri Ozarks region with VFR expected. Clear skies and light winds
tonight will become southerly and breezy on Sunday.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 328 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Record high temperatures this weekend:

           10/25      10/26
         Today(Sat)    Sun

SGF       85/1939    86/1891
JLN       87/1944    87/1950
UNO       83/1952    84/1950
VIH       83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Griffin
CLIMATE...Wise








000
FXUS63 KEAX 252108
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
408 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 407 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Tonight - Sunday:

Main challenge will be another night where we will be dealing with
fog in parts of the CWA and then summer-like high temperatures. Weak
high pressure nosing into northern MO will push no further overnight
with plenty of residual moisture around to aid in fog and stratus
formation. Latest SREF visibility prog and WRF Simulated GOES-R
product favor fog forming from southern NE into west central MO and
see no reason for it not to form. Main question is whether or not
dense fog will form. Light southeast winds vs near calm winds last
night suggests any dense fog should be patchy vs widespread.

Inspection of NAM/GFS Bufr soundings and NAM/GFS/ECMWF 925mb
condensation pressure deficits also support a band of stratus
forming north of a warm front which is progged to lie from north
central KS into central MO by 12z Sunday. As the warm front lifts
north the attendant cloud cover will likewise head north but
probably break up with time. Should the cloud cover linger into the
afternoon then current max temperature forecast over northern MO may
be too optimistic. Otherwise, falling heights spreading eastward
from the Central High Plains ahead of an upper trough plowing into
the Rockies will send a surge of strong warm air advection into the
CWA. +22C to +24C air at 925mb will enter into the southwestern
CWA which could threaten the record high for Kansas City which is 87
degrees.

Monday/Monday Night:

The above mentioned Rockies upper trough will continue eastward on
Monday with weak impulses aloft embedded in the southwest flow
zipping northeast from the Southern Rockies through the Mid MO
Valley. NAM/GFS/ECMWF models are similar in handling these features
and the associated cold front which will slide through the CWA.
Scattered light convection possible with the coverage increasing
further southeast as it will take some time for the modified gulf
moisture to work its way northeast. So, will maintain the northwest
to southeast stratification of PoPs. One more day of much above
average temperatures expected.

Tuesday - Saturday:

The upper trough will be amplifying early in the period as it tracks
through the Great Lakes. Although moderately strong cold air
advection will make its presence known temperatures on Tuesday
through Thursday will only revert back to where we should be for
late October. Both days should be dry.

The extratropical remains of Ana in the form of a loosely held
together shortwave trough will dive southeast from the Northern
Rockies in response to the upper ridge reforming over the
intermountain region. Always need to be aware of systems traveling
within northwest flow and believe there is a need to at least add
slight chance PoPs for Wednesday night as increasing PVA wrings out
the mid level moisture. The passage of the upper trough axis will
mark the arrival of much drier and colder air as Canadian high
pressure swoops in. By Saturday morning sub-freezing morning
temperatures could threaten northern MO.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR conditions expected throughout the afternoon/evening hours
Saturday with NE winds transitioning to SE through the forecast
period. Conditions are once again favorable for fog development at
the terminals overnight with the moist boundary layer in place. Also,
expecting to see some low-level cloud formation during the early
morning hours Sunday ahead of a warm front edging in from the SW.
This will likely present a case for IFR conditions until the fog and
low cloud layer scatter out in the mid to late morning hours Sunday.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Welsh








000
FXUS63 KLSX 252045
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
345 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Monday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

Although it`s hard to believe based on afternoon temperatures in
the mid-70s to lower 80s, a weak cold front did move into the CWA
earlier this morning before stalling out. A surface high moving
through the western Great Lakes will nudge the stalled front a bit
farther south tonight before the boundary lifts back northeastward
as a warm front. A band of clouds may accompany the warm frontal
passage late tonight and tomorrow, although cloud cover should be
greater over the plains compared to eastern MO and western IL.
Some fog is also possible overnight ahead of the surface front,
mainly in central MO and parts of the eastern Ozarks, because dew
points should be a bit higher there compared to areas which will
still be under the influence of the surface ridge and its drier
air. Unseasonably warm temperatures (15-20 deg above average) are
expected again on Sunday and Monday.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM: (Monday night through Next Saturday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

A low pressure system was noted off the CA/OR coastline this
morning, and this system will ultimately bring a chance of
widespread rain to the area on Monday night and Tuesday. Models
depict a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE on Monday night, which should
be sufficient for a few embedded thunderstorms. Comparatively
speaking, a much cooler air mass will then spread across the
region on Tuesday and Tuesday night, ending the recent string of
unseasonably warm October days.

Isolated to scattered showers are possible on Wednesday night into
Thursday due to lift ahead of a shortwave which will be moving
through northwest flow.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

VFR conditions expected through the overnight hours at all TAF
sites. A weak cold front across northern Missouri will sag
southward as high pressure builds in from Nebraska. Light and
variable surface winds will become light northerly this afternoon. Some
stratus based at around 2000 feet may creep into the area from
southwest to northeast on Sunday morning as a warm from
approaches. For now, will keep cloud cover at scattered coverage,
and brief evening shift to watch for possible inclusion of an MVFR
deck if later model output continues to indicate this. Light
northerly winds will veer overnight into Sunday as the surface
high moves quickly off to the east and surface low pressure
develops over the plains states.

Specifics for KSTL:
VFR conditions expected through at least 12Z Sunday with light
north winds. Areas of MVFR ceilings to 2000 feet may move across
the TAF site after around 18Z Sunday, and later updates may require
inclusion of a prevailing MVFR ceiling. Winds will veer overnight
and become southeast during the day Sunday.

Browning

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 252032 CCA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
328 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

An upper level ridge that is currently over the plains will
continue to slide east and over the region on Sunday. Southerly
winds will increase and be breezy on both Sunday and Monday. Wind
gust up to 30 mph will be possible both days across mainly
southeastern Kansas and the western Ozarks both afternoons.

Highs will be slightly warmer Sunday than those occurring this
afternoon, as they warm into the middle 80s with the ridge
overhead. The ridge will then start to slide east of the area on
Monday as an upper level trough pushes into the plains.
Temperatures will still be well above normal as they warm into the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

The upper level trough and a surface cold front will push to the
southeast through the area late Monday evening into Tuesday.
Showers are expected to develop along and behind the front as it
pushes through the region. There will be enough instability for
some embedded rumbles of thunder within the showers. No severe
weather is expected. The rain will push south of the area Tuesday
afternoon.

A more seasonable airmass for late October will spread into the
region behind the front for the middle portions of the week. Highs
in the 60s and lows in the 40s can be expected Tuesday through
Thursday.

Another upper level trough will push through the region late in
the week into next weekend. At this time not expected much in the
way of any rain with this system as there will not be a lot of
moisture to work with. This system is expected to bring an even
cooler airmass to the region for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1153 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Light west
winds this afternoon are expected to back overnight to a more
southerly direction by daybreak and increase in speed towards the
end of the TAF period. With gradual increase in wind speed around day
break...the atmosphere should remain mixed enough to preclude any
fog development.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 328 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Record high temperatures this weekend:

           10/25      10/26
         Today(Sat)    Sun

SGF       85/1939    86/1891
JLN       87/1944    87/1950
UNO       83/1952    84/1950
VIH       83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Gaede
CLIMATE...Wise









000
FXUS63 KSGF 252028
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
328 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

An upper level ridge that is currently over the plains will
continue to slide east and over the region on Sunday. Southerly
winds will increase and be breezy on both Sunday and Monday. Wind
gust up to 30 mph will be possible both days across mainly southeastern
Kansas and the western Ozarks both afternoons.

Highs will be slightly warmer Sunday than those occurring this
afternoon, as they warm into the middle 80s with the ridge
overhead. The ridge will then start to slide east of the area on
Monday as an upper level trough pushes into the plains.
Temperatures will still be well above normal as they warm into the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

The upper level trough and a surface cold front will push to the
southeast through the area late Monday evening into Tuesday.
Showers are expected to develop along and behind the front as it
pushes through the region. There will be enough instability for
some embedded rumbles of thunder within the showers. No severe
weather is expected. The rain will push south of the area Tuesday
afternoon.

A more seasonable airmass for late October will spread into the
region behind the front for the middle portions of the week. Highs
in the 0s and lows in the 40s can be expected Tuesday through
Thursday.

Another upper level trough will push through the region late in
the week into next weekend. At this time not expected much in the
way of any rain with this system as there will not be a lot of
moisture to work with. This system is expected to bring an even
cooler airmass to the region for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1153 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Light west
winds this afternoon are expected to back overnight to a more
southerly direction by daybreak and increase in speed towards the
end of the TAF period. With gradual increase in wind speed around day
break...the atmosphere should remain mixed enough to preclude any
fog development.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 328 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Record high temperatures this weekend:

           10/25      10/26
         Today(Sat)    Sun

SGF       85/1939    86/1891
JLN       87/1944    87/1950
UNO       83/1952    84/1950
VIH       83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Gaede
CLIMATE...Wise







000
FXUS63 KLSX 251731
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1231 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

Primary focus this morning will be on fog. Believe fog will continue to
slowly advect southeastward behind a weak cold front. By mid-morning...
expect diurnal effects to alleviate concerns for dense fog with remnant
stratus quickly scattering out and then dissipating by midday. A mostly
clear sky is forecast for the rest of today with high temperatures
about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday.


Gosselin

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014


(Tonight - Monday Night)

Surface ridge will come across the region tonight with light winds.
Appears to be more of a river valley fog setup as strong radiational
cooling should be the rule. More widespread fog is not expected at this
time as lower dewpoints seep southwestward from the Great Lakes.
For mins tonight...leaned a bit toward cooler guidance due to nearly
ideal radiative conditions...especially across the eastern Ozarks
where NWP guidance notoriously has a warm bias.

High temperatures appear challenging for the day on Sunday. Timing of
a warm front moving through the region is a bit uncertain with the
NAM model nearly 6 hr slower than the GFS. Leaned toward the faster
GFS (and thus warmer) solution due to forecast leeside cyclogenesis...
building mid/upper level heights...and lack of precipitation/convection
to retard the northward progression of the warm front. Still looks like
a decent temp gradient across the area however from southwest to northeast.
Expect highs reaching the mid 80s for portions of central Missouri to
low 70s across south-central Illinois.

One last summer-like day is in store on Monday ahead of an approaching
cold front from the northwest. Went above warmest guidance yielding highs
in the 80s nearly areawide as will range from +15-+19C at 850 hPa.

Cold frontal timing looks ~3 hrs quicker on tonight`s models runs than
last night. Consequently...timing of highest PoPs has shifted southeastward
a bit faster as well through Monday night.


(Tuesday - Friday)

Cooler...more seasonable weather looks in store for the rest of the work
week with highs in the 60s through Thursday. Models forecast an impulse
to come through the mid/upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday with slight
chances of showers. Models diverge greatly Friday and beyond but does
appear cooler weather will be ushered in for Halloween and into the
beginning of next weekend with the potential for a widespread frost/freeze
looming beyond the valid forecast period.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

VFR conditions expected through the overnight hours at all TAF
sites. A weak cold front across northern Missouri will sag
southward as high pressure builds in from Nebraska. Light and
variable surface winds will become light northerly this afternoon. Some
stratus based at around 2000 feet may creep into the area from
southwest to northeast on Sunday morning as a warm from
approaches. For now, will keep cloud cover at scattered coverage,
and brief evening shift to watch for possible inclusion of an MVFR
deck if later model output continues to indicate this. Light
northerly winds will veer overnight into Sunday as the surface
high moves quickly off to the east and surface low pressure
develops over the plains states.

Specifics for KSTL:
VFR conditions expected through at least 12Z Sunday with light
north winds. Areas of MVFR ceilings to 2000 feet may move across
the TAF site after around 18Z Sunday, and later updates may require
inclusion of a prevailing MVFR ceiling. Winds will veer overnight
and become southeast during the day Sunday.

Browning

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 251727
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1227 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 544 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Trends on satellite and observations show dense fog across northern
Missouri building south and west toward northern portions of the KC
metro toward Chariton and Carroll Counties. Additional fog is
developing over eastern KS spreading into western portions of the KC
area. Will therefore expand the dense fog advisory into a few more
counties, although these areas should see fog that is more patchy in
nature compared to areas further northeast. Meanwhile drying coming
in from Iowa is causing fog to scour out across northern MO so
advisory will be dropped for a few counties up that way.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Fog has developed across much of north central and northeast Missouri
early this morning where a dense fog advisory is in effect through 9
AM. Fog is more patchy in nature further west toward the Missouri
River, but with river valley locations already fogging up and SREF
probabilities suggesting fog will build westward, went ahead and
expanded the dense fog advisory further west into northwest MO.

Once fog and any remnant stratus burn off this morning, clear skies
will be the rule across the region through the day with highs rising
into the middle and upper 70s. Models have slowed down the surge of
warmer 925 hPa temps, which makes sense given backed low-level flow,
so highs were nudged down a few degrees with 80 degree readings
likely having to wait until Sunday. Veering flow on Sunday will
bring most areas into the lower 80s except the Kirksville area where
winds will remain more backed. These readings will be almost 20
degrees above average but a few degrees shy of records.

A fairly deep upper-level trough will traverse the center of the
country Monday and Tuesday, sending a cold front into the area Monday
afternoon and evening. Despite the warm airmass ahead of the front,
dry low-levels and a low-level temperature inversion will
significantly limit instability. Thus the potential for any robust
storms is low. Broad northwest flow behind the front will keep us dry
through the remainder of the week while temperatures return to
seasonable levels. A deep surface high may finally bring the
first real threat of frost/freeze to the region by Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR conditions expected throughout the afternoon/evening hours
Saturday with NE winds transitioning to SE through the forecast
period. Conditions are once again favorable for fog development at
the terminals overnight with the moist boundary layer in place. Also,
expecting to see some low-level cloud formation during the early
morning hours Sunday ahead of a warm front edging in from the SW.
This will likely present a case for IFR conditions until the fog and
low cloud layer scatter out in the mid to late morning hours Sunday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hawblitzel
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KSGF 251701
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1201 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 236 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A broad upper level ridge moving over the Ozarks region was
providing pleasant weather to the region overnight. Clear skies,
light winds and mild temperatures were in place across the area
early this morning.

The ridge will continue to move over the area today and tonight
with temperatures climbing into the upper 70s to lower 80s this
afternoon under sunny skies. The temperatures expected today will
be 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Overnight
temperatures will only fall into the 50s as light winds and clear
skies occur again.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Sunday will see very similar conditions to Saturday with highs in
the lower to middle 80s as the upper ridge moves over the region
and southerly winds increase through the day. The winds will
increase as surface low pressure moves across the northern and
central plains. The surface low will begin to shift east in
response to an upper level trough that will begin to flatten the
upper ridge and push it east through Sunday night into Monday.

The upper trough will slowly shift the low and a cold front east
Monday night and bring showers and scattered thunderstorms to the
Ozarks Monday night into early Tuesday morning. High pressure will
move into the region behind the front and bring cooler, more
seasonable temperatures to the area for most of next week.

Another upper level ridge will begin to move over the region late
next week into next weekend. Temperatures are not expected to be
as warm however as a cooler Canadian high settles over the Ozarks.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1153 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Light west
winds this afternoon are expected to back overnight to a more
southerly direction by daybreak and increase in speed towards the
end of the TAF period. With gradual increase in wind speed around day
break...the atmosphere should remain mixed enough to preclude any
fog development.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Gaede







000
FXUS63 KSGF 251701
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1201 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 236 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A broad upper level ridge moving over the Ozarks region was
providing pleasant weather to the region overnight. Clear skies,
light winds and mild temperatures were in place across the area
early this morning.

The ridge will continue to move over the area today and tonight
with temperatures climbing into the upper 70s to lower 80s this
afternoon under sunny skies. The temperatures expected today will
be 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Overnight
temperatures will only fall into the 50s as light winds and clear
skies occur again.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Sunday will see very similar conditions to Saturday with highs in
the lower to middle 80s as the upper ridge moves over the region
and southerly winds increase through the day. The winds will
increase as surface low pressure moves across the northern and
central plains. The surface low will begin to shift east in
response to an upper level trough that will begin to flatten the
upper ridge and push it east through Sunday night into Monday.

The upper trough will slowly shift the low and a cold front east
Monday night and bring showers and scattered thunderstorms to the
Ozarks Monday night into early Tuesday morning. High pressure will
move into the region behind the front and bring cooler, more
seasonable temperatures to the area for most of next week.

Another upper level ridge will begin to move over the region late
next week into next weekend. Temperatures are not expected to be
as warm however as a cooler Canadian high settles over the Ozarks.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1153 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Light west
winds this afternoon are expected to back overnight to a more
southerly direction by daybreak and increase in speed towards the
end of the TAF period. With gradual increase in wind speed around day
break...the atmosphere should remain mixed enough to preclude any
fog development.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Gaede







000
FXUS63 KEAX 251134
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
634 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 544 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Trends on satellite and observations show dense fog across northern
Missouri building south and west toward northern portions of the KC
metro toward Chariton and Carroll Counties. Additional fog is
developing over eastern KS spreading into western portions of the KC
area. Will therefore expand the dense fog advisory into a few more
counties, although these areas should see fog that is more patchy in
nature compared to areas further northeast. Meanwhile drying coming
in from Iowa is causing fog to scour out across northern MO so
advisory will be dropped for a few counties up that way.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Fog has developed across much of north central and northeast Missouri
early this morning where a dense fog advisory is in effect through 9
AM. Fog is more patchy in nature further west toward the Missouri
River, but with river valley locations already fogging up and SREF
probabilities suggesting fog will build westward, went ahead and
expanded the dense fog advisory further west into northwest MO.

Once fog and any remnant stratus burn off this morning, clear skies
will be the rule across the region through the day with highs rising
into the middle and upper 70s. Models have slowed down the surge of
warmer 925 hPa temps, which makes sense given backed low-level flow,
so highs were nudged down a few degrees with 80 degree readings
likely having to wait until Sunday. Veering flow on Sunday will
bring most areas into the lower 80s except the Kirksville area where
winds will remain more backed. These readings will be almost 20
degrees above average but a few degrees shy of records.

A fairly deep upper-level trough will traverse the center of the
country Monday and Tuesday, sending a cold front into the area Monday
afternoon and evening. Despite the warm airmass ahead of the front,
dry low-levels and a low-level temperature inversion will
significantly limit instability. Thus the potential for any robust
storms is low. Broad northwest flow behind the front will keep us dry
through the remainder of the week while temperatures return to
seasonable levels. A deep surface high may finally bring the
first real threat of frost/freeze to the region by Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Dense fog across the region is very shallow in nature and this
should allow it to burn off pretty quickly once the sun comes up.
Once this occurs, clear skies and VFR will prevail for the remainder
of the day. Slightly stronger winds should prevent any fog
redevelopment tonight from becoming as widespread as it is this
morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ025-057-
     060-102>105.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ001-002-
     004-011>017-020>025-028>032-037-043.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hawblitzel
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 251134
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
634 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 544 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Trends on satellite and observations show dense fog across northern
Missouri building south and west toward northern portions of the KC
metro toward Chariton and Carroll Counties. Additional fog is
developing over eastern KS spreading into western portions of the KC
area. Will therefore expand the dense fog advisory into a few more
counties, although these areas should see fog that is more patchy in
nature compared to areas further northeast. Meanwhile drying coming
in from Iowa is causing fog to scour out across northern MO so
advisory will be dropped for a few counties up that way.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Fog has developed across much of north central and northeast Missouri
early this morning where a dense fog advisory is in effect through 9
AM. Fog is more patchy in nature further west toward the Missouri
River, but with river valley locations already fogging up and SREF
probabilities suggesting fog will build westward, went ahead and
expanded the dense fog advisory further west into northwest MO.

Once fog and any remnant stratus burn off this morning, clear skies
will be the rule across the region through the day with highs rising
into the middle and upper 70s. Models have slowed down the surge of
warmer 925 hPa temps, which makes sense given backed low-level flow,
so highs were nudged down a few degrees with 80 degree readings
likely having to wait until Sunday. Veering flow on Sunday will
bring most areas into the lower 80s except the Kirksville area where
winds will remain more backed. These readings will be almost 20
degrees above average but a few degrees shy of records.

A fairly deep upper-level trough will traverse the center of the
country Monday and Tuesday, sending a cold front into the area Monday
afternoon and evening. Despite the warm airmass ahead of the front,
dry low-levels and a low-level temperature inversion will
significantly limit instability. Thus the potential for any robust
storms is low. Broad northwest flow behind the front will keep us dry
through the remainder of the week while temperatures return to
seasonable levels. A deep surface high may finally bring the
first real threat of frost/freeze to the region by Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Dense fog across the region is very shallow in nature and this
should allow it to burn off pretty quickly once the sun comes up.
Once this occurs, clear skies and VFR will prevail for the remainder
of the day. Slightly stronger winds should prevent any fog
redevelopment tonight from becoming as widespread as it is this
morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ025-057-
     060-102>105.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ001-002-
     004-011>017-020>025-028>032-037-043.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hawblitzel
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KLSX 251120
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
620 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

Primary focus this morning will be on fog. Believe fog will continue to
slowly advect southeastward behind a weak cold front. By mid-morning...
expect diurnal effects to alleviate concerns for dense fog with remnant
stratus quickly scattering out and then dissipating by midday. A mostly
clear sky is forecast for the rest of today with high temperatures
about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday.


Gosselin

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014


(Tonight - Monday Night)

Surface ridge will come across the region tonight with light winds.
Appears to be more of a river valley fog setup as strong radiational
cooling should be the rule. More widespread fog is not expected at this
time as lower dewpoints seep southwestward from the Great Lakes.
For mins tonight...leaned a bit toward cooler guidance due to nearly
ideal radiative conditions...especially across the eastern Ozarks
where NWP guidance notoriously has a warm bias.

High temperatures appear challenging for the day on Sunday. Timing of
a warm front moving through the region is a bit uncertain with the
NAM model nearly 6 hr slower than the GFS. Leaned toward the faster
GFS (and thus warmer) solution due to forecast leeside cyclogenesis...
building mid/upper level heights...and lack of precipitation/convection
to retard the northward progression of the warm front. Still looks like
a decent temp gradient across the area however from southwest to northeast.
Expect highs reaching the mid 80s for portions of central Missouri to
low 70s across south-central Illinois.

One last summer-like day is in store on Monday ahead of an approaching
cold front from the northwest. Went above warmest guidance yielding highs
in the 80s nearly areawide as will range from +15-+19C at 850 hPa.

Cold frontal timing looks ~3 hrs quicker on tonight`s models runs than
last night. Consequently...timing of highest PoPs has shifted southeastward
a bit faster as well through Monday night.


(Tuesday - Friday)

Cooler...more seasonable weather looks in store for the rest of the work
week with highs in the 60s through Thursday. Models forecast an impulse
to come through the mid/upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday with slight
chances of showers. Models diverge greatly Friday and beyond but does
appear cooler weather will be ushered in for Halloween and into the
beginning of next weekend with the potential for a widespread frost/freeze
looming beyond the valid forecast period.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

FG will gradually dissipate this morning. Otherwise, a clear sky
and light NW winds are expected thru the afternoon. Winds will
become light and vrb tonight with VFR conditions expected thru the
remainder of the forecast period.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR Knox MO-Lewis
     MO-Marion MO-Shelby MO.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR Adams IL-
     Brown IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 251120
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
620 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

Primary focus this morning will be on fog. Believe fog will continue to
slowly advect southeastward behind a weak cold front. By mid-morning...
expect diurnal effects to alleviate concerns for dense fog with remnant
stratus quickly scattering out and then dissipating by midday. A mostly
clear sky is forecast for the rest of today with high temperatures
about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday.


Gosselin

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014


(Tonight - Monday Night)

Surface ridge will come across the region tonight with light winds.
Appears to be more of a river valley fog setup as strong radiational
cooling should be the rule. More widespread fog is not expected at this
time as lower dewpoints seep southwestward from the Great Lakes.
For mins tonight...leaned a bit toward cooler guidance due to nearly
ideal radiative conditions...especially across the eastern Ozarks
where NWP guidance notoriously has a warm bias.

High temperatures appear challenging for the day on Sunday. Timing of
a warm front moving through the region is a bit uncertain with the
NAM model nearly 6 hr slower than the GFS. Leaned toward the faster
GFS (and thus warmer) solution due to forecast leeside cyclogenesis...
building mid/upper level heights...and lack of precipitation/convection
to retard the northward progression of the warm front. Still looks like
a decent temp gradient across the area however from southwest to northeast.
Expect highs reaching the mid 80s for portions of central Missouri to
low 70s across south-central Illinois.

One last summer-like day is in store on Monday ahead of an approaching
cold front from the northwest. Went above warmest guidance yielding highs
in the 80s nearly areawide as will range from +15-+19C at 850 hPa.

Cold frontal timing looks ~3 hrs quicker on tonight`s models runs than
last night. Consequently...timing of highest PoPs has shifted southeastward
a bit faster as well through Monday night.


(Tuesday - Friday)

Cooler...more seasonable weather looks in store for the rest of the work
week with highs in the 60s through Thursday. Models forecast an impulse
to come through the mid/upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday with slight
chances of showers. Models diverge greatly Friday and beyond but does
appear cooler weather will be ushered in for Halloween and into the
beginning of next weekend with the potential for a widespread frost/freeze
looming beyond the valid forecast period.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

FG will gradually dissipate this morning. Otherwise, a clear sky
and light NW winds are expected thru the afternoon. Winds will
become light and vrb tonight with VFR conditions expected thru the
remainder of the forecast period.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR Knox MO-Lewis
     MO-Marion MO-Shelby MO.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR Adams IL-
     Brown IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 251058
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
558 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 236 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A broad upper level ridge moving over the Ozarks region was
providing pleasant weather to the region overnight. Clear skies,
light winds and mild temperatures were in place across the area
early this morning.

The ridge will continue to move over the area today and tonight
with temperatures climbing into the upper 70s to lower 80s this
afternoon under sunny skies. The temperatures expected today will
be 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Overnight
temperatures will only fall into the 50s as light winds and clear
skies occur again.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Sunday will see very similar conditions to Saturday with highs in
the lower to middle 80s as the upper ridge moves over the region
and southerly winds increase through the day. The winds will
increase as surface low pressure moves across the northern and
central plains. The surface low will begin to shift east in
response to an upper level trough that will begin to flatten the
upper ridge and push it east through Sunday night into Monday.

The upper trough will slowly shift the low and a cold front east
Monday night and bring showers and scattered thunderstorms to the
Ozarks Monday night into early Tuesday morning. High pressure will
move into the region behind the front and bring cooler, more
seasonable temperatures to the area for most of next week.

Another upper level ridge will begin to move over the region late
next week into next weekend. Temperatures are not expected to be
as warm however as a cooler Canadian high settles over the Ozarks.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Clear skies and VFR conditions will continue through tonight.
Light west to southwest winds will become light and variable
tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 251058
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
558 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 236 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A broad upper level ridge moving over the Ozarks region was
providing pleasant weather to the region overnight. Clear skies,
light winds and mild temperatures were in place across the area
early this morning.

The ridge will continue to move over the area today and tonight
with temperatures climbing into the upper 70s to lower 80s this
afternoon under sunny skies. The temperatures expected today will
be 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Overnight
temperatures will only fall into the 50s as light winds and clear
skies occur again.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Sunday will see very similar conditions to Saturday with highs in
the lower to middle 80s as the upper ridge moves over the region
and southerly winds increase through the day. The winds will
increase as surface low pressure moves across the northern and
central plains. The surface low will begin to shift east in
response to an upper level trough that will begin to flatten the
upper ridge and push it east through Sunday night into Monday.

The upper trough will slowly shift the low and a cold front east
Monday night and bring showers and scattered thunderstorms to the
Ozarks Monday night into early Tuesday morning. High pressure will
move into the region behind the front and bring cooler, more
seasonable temperatures to the area for most of next week.

Another upper level ridge will begin to move over the region late
next week into next weekend. Temperatures are not expected to be
as warm however as a cooler Canadian high settles over the Ozarks.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Clear skies and VFR conditions will continue through tonight.
Light west to southwest winds will become light and variable
tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KEAX 251054
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
554 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 544 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Trends on satellite and observations show dense fog across northern
Missouri building south and west toward northern portions of the KC
metro toward Chariton and Carroll Counties. Additional fog is
developing over eastern KS spreading into western portions of the KC
area. Will therefore expand the dense fog advisory into a few more
counties, although these areas should see fog that is more patchy in
nature compared to areas further northeast. Meanwhile drying coming
in from Iowa is causing fog to scour out across northern MO so
advisory will be dropped for a few counties up that way.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Fog has developed across much of north central and northeast Missouri
early this morning where a dense fog advisory is in effect through 9
AM. Fog is more patchy in nature further west toward the Missouri
River, but with river valley locations already fogging up and SREF
probabilities suggesting fog will build westward, went ahead and
expanded the dense fog advisory further west into northwest MO.

Once fog and any remnant stratus burn off this morning, clear skies
will be the rule across the region through the day with highs rising
into the middle and upper 70s. Models have slowed down the surge of
warmer 925 hPa temps, which makes sense given backed low-level flow,
so highs were nudged down a few degrees with 80 degree readings
likely having to wait until Sunday. Veering flow on Sunday will
bring most areas into the lower 80s except the Kirksville area where
winds will remain more backed. These readings will be almost 20
degrees above average but a few degrees shy of records.

A fairly deep upper-level trough will traverse the center of the
country Monday and Tuesday, sending a cold front into the area Monday
afternoon and evening. Despite the warm airmass ahead of the front,
dry low-levels and a low-level temperature inversion will
significantly limit instability. Thus the potential for any robust
storms is low. Broad northwest flow behind the front will keep us dry
through the remainder of the week while temperatures return to
seasonable levels. A deep surface high may finally bring the
first real threat of frost/freeze to the region by Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Fog has developed well to the NE of the terminals with the exception
of STJ which is reporting MVFR ocnl IFR vis already. A surface trough
is sinking through the terminals overnight making for lgt and vrb
winds. These lgt winds associated with moist conds will lead to fog
at the rest of the terminals as well but should remain lgt btn 3SM-
5SM. Again the exception will be STJ which will occasionally sink to
1/2SM-1SM btn 09Z-13Z...as such have a tempo group for those conds.
Otrw...expect lgt fog to persist til 14Z-16Z with MVFR vis. Beyond
that, expect VFR conds with lgt and vrb winds becmg ESE around 5kts
during the evening under clr skies.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ025-
     102>105.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>032-037.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hawblitzel
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 251054
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
554 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 544 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Trends on satellite and observations show dense fog across northern
Missouri building south and west toward northern portions of the KC
metro toward Chariton and Carroll Counties. Additional fog is
developing over eastern KS spreading into western portions of the KC
area. Will therefore expand the dense fog advisory into a few more
counties, although these areas should see fog that is more patchy in
nature compared to areas further northeast. Meanwhile drying coming
in from Iowa is causing fog to scour out across northern MO so
advisory will be dropped for a few counties up that way.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Fog has developed across much of north central and northeast Missouri
early this morning where a dense fog advisory is in effect through 9
AM. Fog is more patchy in nature further west toward the Missouri
River, but with river valley locations already fogging up and SREF
probabilities suggesting fog will build westward, went ahead and
expanded the dense fog advisory further west into northwest MO.

Once fog and any remnant stratus burn off this morning, clear skies
will be the rule across the region through the day with highs rising
into the middle and upper 70s. Models have slowed down the surge of
warmer 925 hPa temps, which makes sense given backed low-level flow,
so highs were nudged down a few degrees with 80 degree readings
likely having to wait until Sunday. Veering flow on Sunday will
bring most areas into the lower 80s except the Kirksville area where
winds will remain more backed. These readings will be almost 20
degrees above average but a few degrees shy of records.

A fairly deep upper-level trough will traverse the center of the
country Monday and Tuesday, sending a cold front into the area Monday
afternoon and evening. Despite the warm airmass ahead of the front,
dry low-levels and a low-level temperature inversion will
significantly limit instability. Thus the potential for any robust
storms is low. Broad northwest flow behind the front will keep us dry
through the remainder of the week while temperatures return to
seasonable levels. A deep surface high may finally bring the
first real threat of frost/freeze to the region by Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Fog has developed well to the NE of the terminals with the exception
of STJ which is reporting MVFR ocnl IFR vis already. A surface trough
is sinking through the terminals overnight making for lgt and vrb
winds. These lgt winds associated with moist conds will lead to fog
at the rest of the terminals as well but should remain lgt btn 3SM-
5SM. Again the exception will be STJ which will occasionally sink to
1/2SM-1SM btn 09Z-13Z...as such have a tempo group for those conds.
Otrw...expect lgt fog to persist til 14Z-16Z with MVFR vis. Beyond
that, expect VFR conds with lgt and vrb winds becmg ESE around 5kts
during the evening under clr skies.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ025-
     102>105.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>032-037.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hawblitzel
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KSGF 250810
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
310 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 236 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A broad upper level ridge moving over the Ozarks region was
providing pleasant weather to the region overnight. Clear skies,
light winds and mild temperatures were in place across the area
early this morning.

The ridge will continue to move over the area today and tonight
with temperatures climbing into the upper 70s to lower 80s this
afternoon under sunny skies. The temperatures expected today will
be 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Overnight
temperatures will only fall into the 50s as light winds and clear
skies occur again.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Sunday will see very similar conditions to Saturday with highs in
the lower to middle 80s as the upper ridge moves over the region
and southerly winds increase through the day. The winds will
increase as surface low pressure moves across the northern and
central plains. The surface low will begin to shift east in
response to an upper level trough that will begin to flatten the
upper ridge and push it east through Sunday night into Monday.

The upper trough will slowly shift the low and a cold front east
Monday night and bring showers and scattered thunderstorms to the
Ozarks Monday night into early Tuesday morning. High pressure will
move into the region behind the front and bring cooler, more
seasonable temperatures to the area for most of next week.

Another upper level ridge will begin to move over the region late
next week into next weekend. Temperatures are not expected to be
as warm however as a cooler Canadian high settles over the Ozarks.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

There are no big concerns for pilots flying in and out of the
Missouri Ozarks region through Saturday evening. Mostly VFR
conditions will continue. With this update...have lowered the fog
potential for tonight. Will mention a tempo group for some MVFR
visibilities by sunrise in the morning. Otherwise skies will be
generally mostly clear and winds will be light southerly tonight
shifting to more westerly or southwesterly tomorrow.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Griffin






000
FXUS63 KLSX 250809
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
309 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

Primary focus this morning will be on fog. Believe fog will continue to
slowly advect southeastward behind a weak cold front. By mid-morning...
expect diurnal effects to alleviate concerns for dense fog with remnant
stratus quickly scattering out and then dissipating by midday. A mostly
clear sky is forecast for the rest of today with high temperatures
about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday.


Gosselin


.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014


(Tonight - Monday Night)

Surface ridge will come across the region tonight with light winds.
Appears to be more of a river valley fog setup as strong radiational
cooling should be the rule. More widespread fog is not expected at this
time as lower dewpoints seep southwestward from the Great Lakes.
For mins tonight...leaned a bit toward cooler guidance due to nearly
ideal radiative conditions...especially across the eastern Ozarks
where NWP guidance notoriously has a warm bias.

High temperatures appear challenging for the day on Sunday. Timing of
a warm front moving through the region is a bit uncertain with the
NAM model nearly 6 hr slower than the GFS. Leaned toward the faster
GFS (and thus warmer) solution due to forecast leeside cyclogenesis...
building mid/upper level heights...and lack of precipitation/convection
to retard the northward progression of the warm front. Still looks like
a decent temp gradient across the area however from southwest to northeast.
Expect highs reaching the mid 80s for portions of central Missouri to
low 70s across south-central Illinois.

One last summer-like day is in store on Monday ahead of an approaching
cold front from the northwest. Went above warmest guidance yielding highs
in the 80s nearly areawide as will range from +15-+19C at 850 hPa.

Cold frontal timing looks ~3 hrs quicker on tonight`s models runs than
last night. Consequently...timing of highest PoPs has shifted southeastward
a bit faster as well through Monday night.


(Tuesday - Friday)

Cooler...more seasonable weather looks in store for the rest of the work
week with highs in the 60s through Thursday. Models forecast an impulse
to come through the mid/upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday with slight
chances of showers. Models diverge greatly Friday and beyond but does
appear cooler weather will be ushered in for Halloween and into the
beginning of next weekend with the potential for a widespread frost/freeze
looming beyond the valid forecast period.


Gosselin


&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

A weak cool front will move southeastward through the area late
tonight. Fog is expected to develop and/or advect southward into
our area from IA and nwrn IL late tonight along/ahead of this
front. Patchy stratus clouds is also possible as well, due to
light surface winds near the front and relatively high surface
dewpoints along and south of the front. The lowest visibilities
will likely be in UIN where they may drop to one quarter of a mile.
This fog will dissipate by late Saturday morning. A s-swly
surface wind will veer around to a nwly direction late
tonight/early Saturday morning after fropa. The surface wind will
become n-nely Saturday evening, albeit light as a surface ridge
moves through the region.

Specifics for KSTL: Just high level clouds late tonight and maybe
scattered low level clouds as well. Light fog can be expected late
tonight/early Saturday morning. A s-swly surface wind will veer
around to a nwly direction early Saturday morning after fropa. The
surface wind will become n-nely Saturday evening, albeit light.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     79  51  79  64 /   0   0   5   5
Quincy          74  46  75  64 /   0   0  10   5
Columbia        78  52  84  64 /   0   0   5   5
Jefferson City  80  52  85  61 /   0   0   5   5
Salem           77  48  74  60 /   0   0   5   5
Farmington      79  48  81  61 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR Knox MO-Lewis
     MO-Marion MO-Shelby MO.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR Adams IL-
     Brown IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 250808
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
308 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Fog has developed across much of north central and northeast Missouri
early this morning where a dense fog advisory is in effect through 9
AM. Fog is more patchy in nature further west toward the Missouri
River, but with river valley locations already fogging up and SREF
probabilities suggesting fog will build westward, went ahead and
expanded the dense fog advisory further west into northwest MO.

Once fog and any remnant stratus burn off this morning, clear skies
will be the rule across the region through the day with highs rising
into the middle and upper 70s. Models have slowed down the surge of
warmer 925 hPa temps, which makes sense given backed low-level flow,
so highs were nudged down a few degrees with 80 degree readings
likely having to wait until Sunday. Veering flow on Sunday will
bring most areas into the lower 80s except the Kirksville area where
winds will remain more backed. These readings will be almost 20
degrees above average but a few degrees shy of records.

A fairly deep upper-level trough will traverse the center of the
country Monday and Tuesday, sending a cold front into the area Monday
afternoon and evening. Despite the warm airmass ahead of the front,
dry low-levels and a low-level temperature inversion will
significantly limit instability. Thus the potential for any robust
storms is low. Broad northwest flow behind the front will keep us dry
through the remainder of the week while temperatures return to
seasonable levels. A deep surface high may finally bring the
first real threat of frost/freeze to the region by Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Fog has developed well to the NE of the terminals with the exception
of STJ which is reporting MVFR ocnl IFR vis already. A surface trough
is sinking through the terminals overnight making for lgt and vrb
winds. These lgt winds associated with moist conds will lead to fog
at the rest of the terminals as well but should remain lgt btn 3SM-
5SM. Again the exception will be STJ which will occasionally sink to
1/2SM-1SM btn 09Z-13Z...as such have a tempo group for those conds.
Otrw...expect lgt fog to persist til 14Z-16Z with MVFR vis. Beyond
that, expect VFR conds with lgt and vrb winds becmg ESE around 5kts
during the evening under clr skies.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ001>008-
     011>017-022>025.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 250449
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1149 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Tonight - Monday:

Before we discuss the overall pattern into early next week the near
term concerns center around fog potential. Airmass ahead of a
windshift line from western IA into north central KS is quite moist
with surface dewpoints in the lower 60s. Much drier air resides
behind this boundary which is expected to slide southeast through
the CWA overnight. Latest SREF visibility prog and WRF simulated
GOES-R 10.35u-3.9u product, which did a great job on last nights
fog, favors areas south of a IRK to MKC line for fog redeveloping.
Also think there is good chance for at least patchy dense fog over
the southern 1/3 of the CWA. Will hold off on issuing an advisory
and let evening shift evaluate visibility trends.

As for the weekend and next Monday we are looking at a very warm and
dry period. A moderately high amplitude upper ridge will translate
eastward through the Plains/MS Valley allowing a large fetch of
unseasonably warm air to spread northeast. Max temperatures by
Sunday will fall just short of record readings with most locations
seeing 80s. MCI and STJ record highs for Sunday is 87.

Monday night - Tuesday:

Medium range models similar in handling a shortwave trough tracking
through the Northern/Central Plains and Upper MS Valley. Associated
cold front will push through the CWA. Increasing warm air advection
multi-layered clouds will overspread the region with scattered
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Considerable amount of CIN
within the warm sector to overcome so thunder chances most likely
tied to minuscule elevated instability. Much cooler air, albeit
nothing worse than seasonal readings, will move into the region.

Wednesday - Friday:

Upper pattern becomes a bit more unsettled with northwest flow and
the remnants of TS Ana diving southeast through the Northern Plains
and into the Mid MO River Valley Wednesday night/Thursday. Models
just starting to take into consideration the energy and moisture
with Ana and won`t be surprised if later model runs ramp up the PoPs
for Wednesday night/early Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Fog has developed well to the NE of the terminals with the exception
of STJ which is reporting MVFR ocnl IFR vis already. A surface trough
is sinking through the terminals overnight making for lgt and vrb
winds. These lgt winds associated with moist conds will lead to fog
at the rest of the terminals as well but should remain lgt btn 3SM-
5SM. Again the exception will be STJ which will occasionally sink to
1/2SM-1SM btn 09Z-13Z...as such have a tempo group for those conds.
Otrw...expect lgt fog to persist til 14Z-16Z with MVFR vis. Beyond
that, expect VFR conds with lgt and vrb winds becmg ESE around 5kts
during the evening under clr skies.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR MOZ005>008-
     014>017-022>025.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KSGF 250447
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1147 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

...06z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

An upper level ridge is located over the eastern Rockies at this
time while surface high pressure resides over the Arklatex region.
Mainly sct-bkn high level clouds were transiting the area within
the northwest flow aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

The surface high pressure will bring fair weather and unseasonably
warm temperatures to the region through this weekend. The
combination of clearing skies and light winds will aid in creating
some patchy fog during the overnight hours. The fog should burn
off rather quickly after sunrise on Saturday.

The upper level ridge over the Rockies will gradually move eastward
and begin to flatten on Sunday as the next storm system makes its
way into the Pacific Northwest.

The 850 mb temperatures are expected to warm to close to 20C
across the western CWA by Sunday afternoon. This will push high
temperatures into the low to mid 80s under partly cloudy skies.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

High temperatures on Monday will be slightly cooler as a cold
front and associated upper level system approach from the northwest.
Rain chances will increase Monday night into Tuesday as the front
moves through the area. Rain should be ending in south central
Missouri by Wednesday morning. There is also a slight chance of
rain on Thursday as an upper level system moves through.

The passage of the cold front will return temperatures to more
seasonal levels with highs in the mid 60s and lows in the mid 40s.
A secondary surge of Canadian air is expected by late in the
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

There are no big concerns for pilots flying in and out of the
Missouri Ozarks region through Saturday evening. Mostly VFR
conditions will continue. With this update...have lowered the fog
potential for tonight. Will mention a tempo group for some MVFR
visibilities by sunrise in the morning. Otherwise skies will be
generally mostly clear and winds will be light southerly tonight
shifting to more westerly or southwesterly tomorrow.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures this weekend:

           10/25      10/26
            Sat.       Sun.

SGF       85/1939    86/1891
JLN       87/1944    87/1950
UNO       83/1952    84/1950
VIH       83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Griffin







000
FXUS63 KLSX 250415
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1115 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 945 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Present indications are that we should see dense fog overnight
across portions of northeast Missouri into west central Illinois.
Its origin may be two-fold. First there could be some development
in the moist southerly flow ahead of the weak encroaching cold
front. However there may be a better probability in the wake of
this boundary as it moves into northern Missouri/western Illinois late
tonight. Quite a bit of dense fog has developed across the southeast
half of Iowa and trajectories overnight with the passage of the
front would bring this south-southeastward. Recent runs of the
HRRR have been suggesting this scenario which is also supported
by RH progs in the lowest 500 feet from the NAM and the RAP. I
have issued a dense fog advisory through 14z Saturday and
depending on trends overnight this may need to be expanded.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

The last vestiges of this morning`s low clouds and fog is finally
dissipating.  However, clearing sky and light wind combined with
relatively high dewpoints in the mid and upper 50s tonight will
likely produce more fog.  A weak trof of low pressure now moving
through eastern Nebraska will also drop into the area providing a
little lift and convergence but not much of an increase in wind.
Unsure how low to go at this time, but at least patchy fog looks
likely with more widespread fog in northeast MO/west central IL.

Fog will likely linger into the daytime hours of Saturday morning.
A lot of uncertainty as to how long...but at least through 14-15Z
seems likely.  The trof is expected to come to a halt Saturday
afternoon/evening near the MO/AR border then begin lifting back to
the north as a warm front as warm advection begins ahead of the next
system.  The warm front continues lifting north Sunday and decent
mixing should give us temperatures well above normal.  MOS
temperatures through Sunday look pretty reasonable so have followed
them closely.

Carney

.LONG TERM: (Sunday Night through Next Friday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Sunday night into Monday the next strong shortwave moves from the
Rockies into the Great Plains.  Strong warm advection should keep
temperatures pretty mild...more summer-like in fact...into Monday
afternoon.  As the surface cold front associated with the shortwave
approaches the area Monday night, expect scattered showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms to affect the area.  Kept PoPs in the
high chance/low likely range as the front moves through the area
late Monday night into Tuesday.  Rain chances should be more or less
done by 00Z Wednesday.  Cooler conditions for the rest of the week
as the upper pattern amplifies with a deep trof over eastern North
America and a strong ridge over the Rockies. A shortwave is forecast
to ripple by Thursday which could produce another round of light
rain, tho differences in medium range guidance indicate slight
chance PoPs are the best way to handle it at this time.  Next Friday
looks cool and dry at this time as a strong Canadian high pressure
system slides down into the Mississippi Valley.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

A weak cool front will move southeastward through the area late
tonight. Fog is expected to develop and/or advect southward into
our area from IA and nwrn IL late tonight along/ahead of this
front. Patchy stratus clouds is also possible as well, due to
light surface winds near the front and relatively high surface
dewpoints along and south of the front. The lowest visibilities
will likely be in UIN where they may drop to one quarter of a mile.
This fog will dissipate by late Saturday morning. A s-swly
surface wind will veer around to a nwly direction late
tonight/early Saturday morning after fropa. The surface wind will
become n-nely Saturday evening, albeit light as a surface ridge
moves through the region.

Specifics for KSTL: Just high level clouds late tonight and maybe
scattered low level clouds as well. Light fog can be expected late
tonight/early Saturday morning. A s-swly surface wind will veer
around to a nwly direction early Saturday morning after fropa. The
surface wind will become n-nely Saturday evening, albeit light.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR Knox MO-
     Lewis MO-Marion MO-Shelby MO.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR Adams IL-
     Brown IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 250254
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
954 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 945 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Present indications are that we should see dense fog overnight
across portions of northeast Missouri into west central Illinois.
Its origin may be two-fold. First there could be some development
in the moist southerly flow ahead of the weak encroaching cold
front. However there may be a better probability in the wake of
this boundary as it moves into northern Missouri/western Illinois late
tonight. Quite a bit of dense fog has developed across the southeast
half of Iowa and trajectories overnight with the passage of the
front would bring this south-southeastward. Recent runs of the
HRRR have been suggesting this scenario which is also supported
by RH progs in the lowest 500 feet from the NAM and the RAP. I
have issued a dense fog advisory through 14z Saturday and
depending on trends overnight this may need to be expanded.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

The last vestiges of this morning`s low clouds and fog is finally
dissipating.  However, clearing sky and light wind combined with
relatively high dewpoints in the mid and upper 50s tonight will
likely produce more fog.  A weak trof of low pressure now moving
through eastern Nebraska will also drop into the area providing a
little lift and convergence but not much of an increase in wind.
Unsure how low to go at this time, but at least patchy fog looks
likely with more widespread fog in northeast MO/west central IL.

Fog will likely linger into the daytime hours of Saturday morning.
A lot of uncertainty as to how long...but at least through 14-15Z
seems likely.  The trof is expected to come to a halt Saturday
afternoon/evening near the MO/AR border then begin lifting back to
the north as a warm front as warm advection begins ahead of the next
system.  The warm front continues lifting north Sunday and decent
mixing should give us temperatures well above normal.  MOS
temperatures through Sunday look pretty reasonable so have followed
them closely.

Carney

.LONG TERM: (Sunday Night through Next Friday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Sunday night into Monday the next strong shortwave moves from the
Rockies into the Great Plains.  Strong warm advection should keep
temperatures pretty mild...more summer-like in fact...into Monday
afternoon.  As the surface cold front associated with the shortwave
approaches the area Monday night, expect scattered showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms to affect the area.  Kept PoPs in the
high chance/low likely range as the front moves through the area
late Monday night into Tuesday.  Rain chances should be more or less
done by 00Z Wednesday.  Cooler conditions for the rest of the week
as the upper pattern amplifies with a deep trof over eastern North
America and a strong ridge over the Rockies. A shortwave is forecast
to ripple by Thursday which could produce another round of light
rain, tho differences in medium range guidance indicate slight
chance PoPs are the best way to handle it at this time.  Next Friday
looks cool and dry at this time as a strong Canadian high pressure
system slides down into the Mississippi Valley.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 522 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

A weak cool front will move southeastward through the area late
tonight. Fog is expected to develop late tonight ahead of this
front, and possibly also patchy stratus clouds as well, due to light
surface winds and relatively high surface dewpoints. This fog will
dissipate by late Saturday morning. A s-swly surface wind will
veer around to a nwly direction late tonight/early Saturday
morning after fropa.

Specifics for KSTL: Just high level clouds tonight and maybe
scattered low level clouds as well. Light fog can be expected late
tonight/early Saturday morning. Sly surface wind will veer around
to a nwly direction early Saturday morning after fropa. The
surface wind will become n-nely Saturday evening, albeit light as
a surface ridge moves through the region.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR Knox MO-
     Lewis MO-Marion MO-Shelby MO.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR Adams IL-
     Brown IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 242320
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
620 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Tonight - Monday:

Before we discuss the overall pattern into early next week the near
term concerns center around fog potential. Airmass ahead of a
windshift line from western IA into north central KS is quite moist
with surface dewpoints in the lower 60s. Much drier air resides
behind this boundary which is expected to slide southeast through
the CWA overnight. Latest SREF visibility prog and WRF simulated
GOES-R 10.35u-3.9u product, which did a great job on last nights
fog, favors areas south of a IRK to MKC line for fog redeveloping.
Also think there is good chance for at least patchy dense fog over
the southern 1/3 of the CWA. Will hold off on issuing an advisory
and let evening shift evaluate visibility trends.

As for the weekend and next Monday we are looking at a very warm and
dry period. A moderately high amplitude upper ridge will translate
eastward through the Plains/MS Valley allowing a large fetch of
unseasonably warm air to spread northeast. Max temperatures by
Sunday will fall just short of record readings with most locations
seeing 80s. MCI and STJ record highs for Sunday is 87.

Monday night - Tuesday:

Medium range models similar in handling a shortwave trough tracking
through the Northern/Central Plains and Upper MS Valley. Associated
cold front will push through the CWA. Increasing warm air advection
multi-layered clouds will overspread the region with scattered
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Considerable amount of CIN
within the warm sector to overcome so thunder chances most likely
tied to minuscule elevated instability. Much cooler air, albeit
nothing worse than seasonal readings, will move into the region.

Wednesday - Friday:

Upper pattern becomes a bit more unsettled with northwest flow and
the remnants of TS Ana diving southeast through the Northern Plains
and into the Mid MO River Valley Wednesday night/Thursday. Models
just starting to take into consideration the energy and moisture
with Ana and won`t be surprised if later model runs ramp up the PoPs
for Wednesday night/early Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 608 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

The main concern for aviators this TAF period will be the potential
for fog and even dense fog tomorrow morning. However, VFR conds will
prevail until after midnight with just sct-bkn high cirrus. Winds
this evening will diminish out of the SW to around 5kts. A surface
trough will move through the terminals btn 07Z-09Z causing winds to
become lgt and vrb with mainly clr skies. This will allow fog
to develop at the terminals reducing vsbys to 3SM-5SM. The question
then becomes does dry air behind the surface trough allow fog to cont
to be lgt or the moist air near the surface prevail. If the moist air
does prevail then there is the potential for dense fog btn 10Z-14Z
which would reduce vsbys into the IFR range. For the 00Z TAF
issuance, have not included a TEMPO grp for dense fog at the
terminals (with the exception of fog prone STJ) due to uncertainty of
development. However can not rule out the addition of a TEMPO grp for
dense for with the 06Z issuance. In any case, fog will lift from the
terminals btn 14Z-15Z and VFR conds should then prevail through the
remainder of the period with clr skies. Winds throughout the day
tomorrow will be lgt and vrb.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KSGF 242253
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
553 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

...00z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

An upper level ridge is located over the eastern Rockies at this
time while surface high pressure resides over the Arklatex region.
Mainly sct-bkn high level clouds were transiting the area within
the northwest flow aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

The surface high pressure will bring fair weather and unseasonably
warm temperatures to the region through this weekend. The
combination of clearing skies and light winds will aid in creating
some patchy fog during the overnight hours. The fog should burn
off rather quickly after sunrise on Saturday.

The upper level ridge over the Rockies will gradually move eastward
and begin to flatten on Sunday as the next storm system makes its
way into the Pacific Northwest.

The 850 mb temperatures are expected to warm to close to 20C
across the western CWA by Sunday afternoon. This will push high
temperatures into the low to mid 80s under partly cloudy skies.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

High temperatures on Monday will be slightly cooler as a cold
front and associated upper level system approach from the northwest.
Rain chances will increase Monday night into Tuesday as the front
moves through the area. Rain should be ending in south central
Missouri by Wednesday morning. There is also a slight chance of
rain on Thursday as an upper level system moves through.

The passage of the cold front will return temperatures to more
seasonal levels with highs in the mid 60s and lows in the mid 40s.
A secondary surge of Canadian air is expected by late in the
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 546 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

The only aviation concern for tonight will be the potential for
patchy fog developing late tonight and early tomorrow morning.
Skies will generally be mostly clear. Winds will be light
southwest becoming light and variable late tonight. Will have all
TAF sites with MVFR visibilities after 08z tonight with a mention
of TEMPO groups for possible IFR visibilities between 10z to 13z.
Any fog will dissipate after 14z tomorrow morning with mostly
clear skies and light southwest winds.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures this weekend:

           10/25      10/26
            Sat.       Sun.

SGF       85/1939    86/1891
JLN       87/1944    87/1950
UNO       83/1952    84/1950
VIH       83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Griffin







000
FXUS63 KLSX 242250
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
550 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

The last vestiges of this morning`s low clouds and fog is finally
dissipating.  However, clearing sky and light wind combined with
relatively high dewpoints in the mid and upper 50s tonight will
likely produce more fog.  A weak trof of low pressure now moving
through eastern Nebraska will also drop into the area providing a
little lift and convergence but not much of an increase in wind.
Unsure how low to go at this time, but at least patchy fog looks
likely with more widespread fog in northeast MO/west central IL.

Fog will likely linger into the daytime hours of Saturday morning.
A lot of uncertainty as to how long...but at least through 14-15Z
seems likely.  The trof is expected to come to a halt Saturday
afternoon/evening near the MO/AR border then begin lifting back to
the north as a warm front as warm advection begins ahead of the next
system.  The warm front continues lifting north Sunday and decent
mixing should give us temperatures well above normal.  MOS
temperatures through Sunday look pretty reasonable so have followed
them closely.

Carney

.LONG TERM: (Sunday Night through Next Friday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Sunday night into Monday the next strong shortwave moves from the
Rockies into the Great Plains.  Strong warm advection should keep
temperatures pretty mild...more summer-like in fact...into Monday
afternoon.  As the surface cold front associated with the shortwave
approaches the area Monday night, expect scattered showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms to affect the area.  Kept PoPs in the
high chance/low likely range as the front moves through the area
late Monday night into Tuesday.  Rain chances should be more or less
done by 00Z Wednesday.  Cooler conditions for the rest of the week
as the upper pattern amplifies with a deep trof over eastern North
America and a strong ridge over the Rockies. A shortwave is forecast
to ripple by Thursday which could produce another round of light
rain, tho differences in medium range guidance indicate slight
chance PoPs are the best way to handle it at this time.  Next Friday
looks cool and dry at this time as a strong Canadian high pressure
system slides down into the Mississippi Valley.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 522 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

A weak cool front will move southeastward through the area late
tonight. Fog is expected to develop late tonight ahead of this
front, and possibly also patchy stratus clouds as well, due to light
surface winds and relatively high surface dewpoints. This fog will
dissipate by late Saturday morning. A s-swly surface wind will
veer around to a nwly direction late tonight/early Saturday
morning after fropa.

Specifics for KSTL: Just high level clouds tonight and maybe
scattered low level clouds as well. Light fog can be expected late
tonight/early Saturday morning. Sly surface wind will veer around
to a nwly direction early Saturday morning after fropa. The
surface wind will become n-nely Saturday evening, albeit light as
a surface ridge moves through the region.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     59  78  55  79 /   0   0   0   5
Quincy          54  75  50  77 /   0   0   0  10
Columbia        56  79  55  83 /   0   0   0   5
Jefferson City  55  79  53  83 /   0   0   0   5
Salem           54  75  49  76 /   0   0   0   5
Farmington      55  77  51  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 242054
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
354 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Tonight - Monday:

Before we discuss the overall pattern into early next week the near
term concerns center around fog potential. Airmass ahead of a
windshift line from western IA into north central KS is quite moist
with surface dewpoints in the lower 60s. Much drier air resides
behind this boundary which is expected to slide southeast through
the CWA overnight. Latest SREF visibility prog and WRF simulated
GOES-R 10.35u-3.9u product, which did a great job on last nights
fog, favors areas south of a IRK to MKC line for fog redeveloping.
Also think there is good chance for at least patchy dense fog over
the southern 1/3 of the CWA. Will hold off on issuing an advisory
and let evening shift evaluate visibility trends.

As for the weekend and next Monday we are looking at a very warm and
dry period. A moderately high amplitude upper ridge will translate
eastward through the Plains/MS Valley allowing a large fetch of
unseasonably warm air to spread northeast. Max temperatures by
Sunday will fall just short of record readings with most locations
seeing 80s. MCI and STJ record highs for Sunday is 87.

Monday night - Tuesday:

Medium range models similar in handling a shortwave trough tracking
through the Northern/Central Plains and Upper MS Valley. Associated
cold front will push through the CWA. Increasing warm air advection
multi-layered clouds will overspread the region with scattered
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Considerable amount of CIN
within the warm sector to overcome so thunder chances most likely
tied to minuscule elevated instability. Much cooler air, albeit
nothing worse than seasonal readings, will move into the region.

Wednesday - Friday:

Upper pattern becomes a bit more unsettled with northwest flow and
the remnants of TS Ana diving southeast through the Northern Plains
and into the Mid MO River Valley Wednesday night/Thursday. Models
just starting to take into consideration the energy and moisture
with Ana and won`t be surprised if later model runs ramp up the PoPs
for Wednesday night/early Thursday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Improving conditions will continue through the afternoon hours with
SW winds becoming NE through sunrise. Expect the upper-level cloud deck to
persist through the majority of Friday. Conditions overnight are
favorable for fog formation, though look to be relatively patchy
compared to the previous period. Remaining cloud cover should exit
the area Saturday morning as high pressure builds to the southwest.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KLSX 242046
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
346 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

The last vestiges of this morning`s low clouds and fog is finally
dissipating.  However, clearing sky and light wind combined with
relatively high dewpoints in the mid and upper 50s tonight will
likely produce more fog.  A weak trof of low pressure now moving
through eastern Nebraska will also drop into the area providing a
little lift and convergence but not much of an increase in wind.
Unsure how low to go at this time, but at least patchy fog looks
likely with more widespread fog in northeast MO/west central IL.

Fog will likely linger into the daytime hours of Saturday morning.
A lot of uncertainty as to how long...but at least through 14-15Z
seems likely.  The trof is expected to come to a halt Saturday
afternoon/evening near the MO/AR border then begin lifting back to
the north as a warm front as warm advection begins ahead of the next
system.  The warm front continues lifting north Sunday and decent
mixing should give us temperatures well above normal.  MOS
temperatures through Sunday look pretty reasonable so have followed
them closely.

Carney

.LONG TERM: (Sunday Night through Next Friday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Sunday night into Monday the next strong shortwave moves from the
Rockies into the Great Plains.  Strong warm advection should keep
temperatures pretty mild...more summer-like in fact...into Monday
afternoon.  As the surface cold front associated with the shortwave
approaches the area Monday night, expect scattered showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms to affect the area.  Kept PoPs in the
high chance/low likely range as the front moves through the area
late Monday night into Tuesday.  Rain chances should be more or less
done by 00Z Wednesday.  Cooler conditions for the rest of the week
as the upper pattern amplifies with a deep trof over eastern North
America and a strong ridge over the Rockies. A shortwave is forecast
to ripple by Thursday which could produce another round of light
rain, tho differences in medium range guidance indicate slight
chance PoPs are the best way to handle it at this time.  Next Friday
looks cool and dry at this time as a strong Canadian high pressure
system slides down into the Mississippi Valley.


Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Stratus and fog were slow to clear this morning, a true sign of
the changing of the season and lower sun angle. Should see most if
not all locations become VFR this afternoon before a renewed
threat of fog or stratus development tonight ahead of a weak trof.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions expected to continue with a light south wind
becoming west/northwest tomorrow morning. There is a chance of
some MVFR fog developing late tonight and early tomorrow morning.

CVKING

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     59  78  55  79 /   0   0   0   5
Quincy          54  75  50  77 /   0   0   0  10
Columbia        56  79  55  83 /   0   0   0   5
Jefferson City  55  79  53  83 /   0   0   0   5
Salem           54  75  49  76 /   0   0   0   5
Farmington      55  77  51  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 242033
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
333 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

The last vestiges of this morning`s low clouds and fog is finally
dissipating.  However, clearing sky and light wind combined with
relatively high dewpoints in the mid and upper 50s tonight will
likely produce more fog.  A weak trof of low pressure now moving
through eastern Nebraska will also drop into the area providing a
little lift and convergence but not much of an increase in wind.
Unsure how low to go at this time, but at least patchy fog looks
likely with more widespread fog in northeast MO/west central IL.

Fog will likely linger into the daytime hours of Saturday morning.
A lot of uncertainty as to how long...but at least through 14-15Z
seems likely.  The trof is expected to come to a halt Saturday
afternoon/evening near the MO/AR border then begin lifting back to
the north as a warm front as warm advection begins ahead of the next
system.  The warm front continues lifting north Sunday and decent
mixing should give us temperatures well above normal.  MOS
temperatures through Sunday look pretty reasonable so have followed
them closely.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014


(Tonight - Monday)

Aforementioned frontal boundary is progged to move through the rest of
the CWA overnight tonight with little fanfare other than a subtle wind
shift from the southwest to the west/northwest. With light winds and
clearing skies behind boundary and associated shortwave trough...did
lean a bit toward cooler NWP guidance with lows mainly in the 50s across
the area.

The Saturday through Monday period will be characterized by well-above
normal temperatures as upper-level ridging builds overhead and 850-hPa
thermal ridge advects toward the mid-Mississippi Valley. Have upped highs
quite a bit from previous forecast into the 70s/80s areawide or some
10-20 degrees above normal. Lows will also follow suit and get progressively
warmer. All in all...dry and unseasonably warm will be the rule with
record or near-record high and/or high low temperatures possible.


(Monday Night - Thursday)

A cold front will move through the area on Monday night with medium-ranged
guidance in very good agreement with fropa timing and associated rain
chances. This front should bring a fairly good chance of showers with
thunder also possible. Instability looks almost non-existent however due
to low-leevl ridging preventing Gulf moisture from streaming northward.
However...did leave mention of thunder in the grids as believe there
should be at least some meager instability...if nothing else due to the
very anomalous sfc temps. This front will also finally move out the
unseasonably warm temperatures and usher in daytime highs and nighttime
lows much closer to seasonal norms for late October. Highs are expected
to be back in the 60s with lows in the 40s Tuesday through Thursday along
with dry weather conditions.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Stratus and fog were slow to clear this morning, a true sign of
the changing of the season and lower sun angle. Should see most if
not all locations become VFR this afternoon before a renewed
threat of fog or stratus development tonight ahead of a weak trof.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions expected to continue with a light south wind
becoming west/northwest tomorrow morning. There is a chance of
some MVFR fog developing late tonight and early tomorrow morning.

CVKING

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     59  78  55  79 /   0   0   0   5
Quincy          54  75  50  77 /   0   0   0  10
Columbia        56  79  55  83 /   0   0   0   5
Jefferson City  55  79  53  83 /   0   0   0   5
Salem           54  75  49  76 /   0   0   0   5
Farmington      55  77  51  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 242026
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
326 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

An upper level ridge is located over the eastern Rockies at this
time while surface high pressure resides over the Arklatex region.
Mainly sct-bkn high level clouds were transiting the area within
the northwest flow aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

The surface high pressure will bring fair weather and unseasonably
warm temperatures to the region through this weekend. The
combination of clearing skies and light winds will aid in creating
some patchy fog during the overnight hours. The fog should burn
off rather quickly after sunrise on Saturday.

The upper level ridge over the Rockies will gradually move eastward
and begin to flatten on Sunday as the next storm system makes its
way into the Pacific Northwest.

The 850 mb temperatures are expected to warm to close to 20C
across the western CWA by Sunday afternoon. This will push high
temperatures into the low to mid 80s under partly cloudy skies.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

High temperatures on Monday will be slightly cooler as a cold
front and associated upper level system approach from the northwest.
Rain chances will increase Monday night into Tuesday as the front
moves through the area. Rain should be ending in south central
Missouri by Wednesday morning. There is also a slight chance of
rain on Thursday as an upper level system moves through.

The passage of the cold front will return temperatures to more
seasonal levels with highs in the mid 60s and lows in the mid 40s.
A secondary surge of Canadian air is expected by late in the
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: The 4Kft cloud deck that is
currently over the KSGF and KBBG TAF sites, will quickly push east
early this afternoon with just broken high clouds occurring
through much of the afternoon. This evening the skies will clear
and some light patchy fog may be able to develop in spots. At this
time do not have enough confidence in it developing and affecting
the TAF sites to include in this TAF package but will continue to
monitor for the potential.

Winds will generally be out of the southwest through the TAF
period as a warmer airmass continues to spread into the region.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures this weekend:

           10/25      10/26
            Sat.       Sun.

SGF       85/1939    86/1891
JLN       87/1944    87/1950
UNO       83/1952    84/1950
VIH       83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Wise








000
FXUS63 KSGF 241718
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1218 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Areas of dense fog were occurring across portions of southwestern
Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas again this morning. This
was resulting from ground moisture from the showers yesterday and
surface high pressure just south of the Ozarks. The fog was the
thickest where winds were light or calm. When winds came up a
little visibilities improved, only to drop again when the winds
diminished. This will continue through sunrise this morning as
temperatures fall into the middle 40s across south central
Missouri, closer to the surface high, and into the middle 50s
across western Missouri as an upper level ridge begins to build
into the area.

As the ridge builds into the area today, temperatures will climb
into the middle to upper 70s. Winds will turn out of the south but
should remain fairly light. As the broad upper level ridge slides
across the southern plains and towards the Ozarks, temperatures
will be on the warm side with overnight lows about 10-15 degrees
warmer than normal for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

The upper level ridge will be in control of the region`s weather
through the weekend as it makes its slow eastward progression. The
result will be warmer than normal temperatures through the weekend
with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s and overnight
lows only falling into the middle 50s to lower 60s. It will be
possible that some locations may approach record highs through the
weekend. See the Climo section below for the record highs through
the weekend.

An upper level trough will make its way across the CONUS starting
next week with a surface low and cold front moving through the
Ozarks late Monday night through mid day Tuesday. This will be the
region`s next and best chance for rain through next week. Another
weak wave does move across the plains early Thursday morning, but
the models have very different precipitation outputs at the
moment. The ECMWF brings rain through the Ozarks while the GFS is
nearly dry.

With the upper level trough that brings the rain early next week
will come more seasonable temperatures with highs in the 60s and
night time lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: The 4Kft cloud deck that is
currently over the KSGF and KBBG TAF sites, will quickly push east
early this afternoon with just broken high clouds occurring
through much of the afternoon. This evening the skies will clear
and some light patchy fog may be able to develop in spots. At this
time do not have enough confidence in it developing and affecting
the TAF sites to include in this TAF package but will continue to
monitor for the potential.

Winds will generally be out of the southwest through the TAF
period as a warmer airmass continues to spread into the region.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KEAX 241712
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1212 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Fog is the main concern this morning with widespread dense fog over
much of northern Missouri, becoming lighter in nature across areas
further south and west. Occasional high clouds have kept this fog
from becoming more widespread across western MO and eastern KS, but
this could change toward sunrise as these clouds are thinning out a
bit. For now plan no changes to the current dense fog advisory as
observations and webcams across ares outside of the advisory suggest
some of this moisture is taking the form of a low stratus versus
widespread dense fog. If low visibilities do start to become more
widespread then this advisory will need expanding.

Combo of thick low clouds/fog and some thicker cirrus spreading
in from the northwest may make it difficult to reach the 80 degree
mark today. Therefore highs were lowered a few degrees, ranging from
the upper 70s near the KS/MO state line to near 70 across the
Kirksville area where low clouds and fog will take longer to burn
off. May need to watch for a few areas of fog again tonight when a
front will sag into the area from the north but gradually wash out,
resulting in another night of light winds. Lower moisture should keep
any fog from becoming as widespread as it is this morning.

Saturday and Sunday will be dry and warm with a deep upper-level
ridge building into the area. Highs could be as warm as the lower to
even middle 80s on Sunday which will be more typical of early
September (record highs of 87 at both KC and STJ on Sunday should be
safe).

On Monday a cold front will track through the area with showers and a
few thunderstorms likely developing along and ahead of it through the
afternoon. Despite the unseasonably warm airmass in place, marginal
moisture and the presence of a low-level capping inversion don`t
appear supportive of any strong storms or heavy rain with this front.
Will need to keep an eye on this though as mid-level winds will be
fairly strong, so the threat for strong storms could increase if
instability trends stronger than currently expected.

A shift into quasi-zonal upper flow behind the front will bring a
return to dry conditions for much of next week while temperatures
drop closer to seasonal normals. This could mean lows in the upper
30s for some areas later next week, but for now there don`t appear to
be any significant frost or freeze threats for the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Improving conditions will continue through the afternoon hours with
SW winds becoming NE through sunrise. Expect the upper-level cloud deck to
persist through the majority of Friday. Conditions overnight are
favorable for fog formation, though look to be relatively patchy
compared to the previous period. Remaining cloud cover should exit
the area Saturday morning as high pressure builds to the southwest.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KLSX 241705
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1205 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Weak shortwave will round periphery of mid/upper ridge with main impact
being an increase in high-level cloudiness for portions of the area.
At the sfc...a weak frontal boundary will approach northwestern sections
of the CWFA by 0000 UTC Saturday. At this time...no wet weather is
expected to accompany this frontal boundary. Temperatures will continue
on the upswing with highs back above average ranging from the upper
60s over south-central Illinois to low/mid 70s for portions of central...
east-central...and southeastern Missouri.


Gosselin

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014


(Tonight - Monday)

Aforementioned frontal boundary is progged to move through the rest of
the CWA overnight tonight with little fanfare other than a subtle wind
shift from the southwest to the west/northwest. With light winds and
clearing skies behind boundary and associated shortwave trough...did
lean a bit toward cooler NWP guidance with lows mainly in the 50s across
the area.

The Saturday through Monday period will be characterized by well-above
normal temperatures as upper-level ridging builds overhead and 850-hPa
thermal ridge advects toward the mid-Mississippi Valley. Have upped highs
quite a bit from previous forecast into the 70s/80s areawide or some
10-20 degrees above normal. Lows will also follow suit and get progressively
warmer. All in all...dry and unseasonably warm will be the rule with
record or near-record high and/or high low temperatures possible.


(Monday Night - Thursday)

A cold front will move through the area on Monday night with medium-ranged
guidance in very good agreement with fropa timing and associated rain
chances. This front should bring a fairly good chance of showers with
thunder also possible. Instability looks almost non-existent however due
to low-leevl ridging preventing Gulf moisture from streaming northward.
However...did leave mention of thunder in the grids as believe there
should be at least some meager instability...if nothing else due to the
very anomalous sfc temps. This front will also finally move out the
unseasonably warm temperatures and usher in daytime highs and nighttime
lows much closer to seasonal norms for late October. Highs are expected
to be back in the 60s with lows in the 40s Tuesday through Thursday along
with dry weather conditions.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Stratus and fog were slow to clear this morning, a true sign of
the changing of the season and lower sun angle. Should see most if
not all locations become VFR this afternoon before a renewed
threat of fog or stratus development tonight ahead of a weak trof.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions expected to continue with a light south wind
becoming west/northwest tomorrow morning. There is a chance of
some MVFR fog developing late tonight and early tomorrow morning.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 241145
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
645 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Weak shortwave will round periphery of mid/upper ridge with main impact
being an increase in high-level cloudiness for portions of the area.
At the sfc...a weak frontal boundary will approach northwestern sections
of the CWFA by 0000 UTC Saturday. At this time...no wet weather is
expected to accompany this frontal boundary. Temperatures will continue
on the upswing with highs back above average ranging from the upper
60s over south-central Illinois to low/mid 70s for portions of central...
east-central...and southeastern Missouri.


Gosselin

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014


(Tonight - Monday)

Aforementioned frontal boundary is progged to move through the rest of
the CWA overnight tonight with little fanfare other than a subtle wind
shift from the southwest to the west/northwest. With light winds and
clearing skies behind boundary and associated shortwave trough...did
lean a bit toward cooler NWP guidance with lows mainly in the 50s across
the area.

The Saturday through Monday period will be characterized by well-above
normal temperatures as upper-level ridging builds overhead and 850-hPa
thermal ridge advects toward the mid-Mississippi Valley. Have upped highs
quite a bit from previous forecast into the 70s/80s areawide or some
10-20 degrees above normal. Lows will also follow suit and get progressively
warmer. All in all...dry and unseasonably warm will be the rule with
record or near-record high and/or high low temperatures possible.


(Monday Night - Thursday)

A cold front will move through the area on Monday night with medium-ranged
guidance in very good agreement with fropa timing and associated rain
chances. This front should bring a fairly good chance of showers with
thunder also possible. Instability looks almost non-existent however due
to low-leevl ridging preventing Gulf moisture from streaming northward.
However...did leave mention of thunder in the grids as believe there
should be at least some meager instability...if nothing else due to the
very anomalous sfc temps. This front will also finally move out the
unseasonably warm temperatures and usher in daytime highs and nighttime
lows much closer to seasonal norms for late October. Highs are expected
to be back in the 60s with lows in the 40s Tuesday through Thursday along
with dry weather conditions.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

FG will be slow to burn off this morning, but shud gradually lift
to become ST before breaking up. Timing is still somewhat
questionable, but will update as needed. VFR conditions are then
expected thru much of the evening. An approaching cdfnt will shift
the winds to the NW, but will remain light. FG is expected once
again tonight. Timing and locations are still uncertain, but
confidence is high enuf to lower vsbys into low MVFR range.

Specifics for KSTL: Mainly VFR conditions are expected thru the
day. However, patches of MVFR cigs may briefly impact the terminal
this morning. Otherwise, winds are expected to remain light with
FG possible around sunrise Sat morning. Have not mentioned in TAF
attm due to uncertainty.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR Audrain MO-
     Boone MO-Callaway MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-
     Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR Adams IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 241059
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
559 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Areas of dense fog were occurring across portions of southwestern
Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas again this morning. This
was resulting from ground moisture from the showers yesterday and
surface high pressure just south of the Ozarks. The fog was the
thickest where winds were light or calm. When winds came up a
little visibilities improved, only to drop again when the winds
diminished. This will continue through sunrise this morning as
temperatures fall into the middle 40s across south central
Missouri, closer to the surface high, and into the middle 50s
across western Missouri as an upper level ridge begins to build
into the area.

As the ridge builds into the area today, temperatures will climb
into the middle to upper 70s. Winds will turn out of the south but
should remain fairly light. As the broad upper level ridge slides
across the southern plains and towards the Ozarks, temperatures
will be on the warm side with overnight lows about 10-15 degrees
warmer than normal for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

The upper level ridge will be in control of the region`s weather
through the weekend as it makes its slow eastward progression. The
result will be warmer than normal temperatures through the weekend
with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s and overnight
lows only falling into the middle 50s to lower 60s. It will be
possible that some locations may approach record highs through the
weekend. See the Climo section below for the record highs through
the weekend.

An upper level trough will make its way across the CONUS starting
next week with a surface low and cold front moving through the
Ozarks late Monday night through mid day Tuesday. This will be the
region`s next and best chance for rain through next week. Another
weak wave does move across the plains early Thursday morning, but
the models have very different precipitation outputs at the
moment. The ECMWF brings rain through the Ozarks while the GFS is
nearly dry.

With the upper level trough that brings the rain early next week
will come more seasonable temperatures with highs in the 60s and
night time lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 541 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

The threat for widespread dense fog has diminished early this
morning across southern Missouri. Patches of IFR visibility are
still expected, but the threat for LIFR is low. Any fog will then
burn off by mid-morning as southerly winds increase. Some weather
models bring in a few hours of MVFR cloud cover later this
morning, however we have elected to keep this threat out of the
TAFs given an overall lack of MVFR ceilings in regional
observations. Thus, we are expecting VFR conditions from mid-
morning through most of tonight. We will have to watch for fog
potential again late tonight, but confidence remains low in this
scenario.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ077-079-
     088>091-093>096-101>105.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KEAX 241056
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
556 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Fog is the main concern this morning with widespread dense fog over
much of northern Missouri, becoming lighter in nature across areas
further south and west. Occasional high clouds have kept this fog
from becoming more widespread across western MO and eastern KS, but
this could change toward sunrise as these clouds are thinning out a
bit. For now plan no changes to the current dense fog advisory as
observations and webcams across ares outside of the advisory suggest
some of this moisture is taking the form of a low stratus versus
widespread dense fog. If low visibilities do start to become more
widespread then this advisory will need expanding.

Combo of thick low clouds/fog and some thicker cirrus spreading
in from the northwest may make it difficult to reach the 80 degree
mark today. Therefore highs were lowered a few degrees, ranging from
the upper 70s near the KS/MO state line to near 70 across the
Kirksville area where low clouds and fog will take longer to burn
off. May need to watch for a few areas of fog again tonight when a
front will sag into the area from the north but gradually wash out,
resulting in another night of light winds. Lower moisture should keep
any fog from becoming as widespread as it is this morning.

Saturday and Sunday will be dry and warm with a deep upper-level
ridge building into the area. Highs could be as warm as the lower to
even middle 80s on Sunday which will be more typical of early
September (record highs of 87 at both KC and STJ on Sunday should be
safe).

On Monday a cold front will track through the area with showers and a
few thunderstorms likely developing along and ahead of it through the
afternoon. Despite the unseasonably warm airmass in place, marginal
moisture and the presence of a low-level capping inversion don`t
appear supportive of any strong storms or heavy rain with this front.
Will need to keep an eye on this though as mid-level winds will be
fairly strong, so the threat for strong storms could increase if
instability trends stronger than currently expected.

A shift into quasi-zonal upper flow behind the front will bring a
return to dry conditions for much of next week while temperatures
drop closer to seasonal normals. This could mean lows in the upper
30s for some areas later next week, but for now there don`t appear to
be any significant frost or freeze threats for the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Widespread fog and low stratus should stay status quo for a couple of
hours, then slowly lift into a high-end IFR deck and eventually into
MVFR before scattering out by this afternoon. With thick cirrus
coming in from the north, don`t expect much more deterioration of
conditions and may in fact see a bit of improvement by sunrise. Some
fog is again possible early Saturday morning but should be more
patchy in nature.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ002>008-
     012>017-020>025-030>033-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 241056
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
556 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Fog is the main concern this morning with widespread dense fog over
much of northern Missouri, becoming lighter in nature across areas
further south and west. Occasional high clouds have kept this fog
from becoming more widespread across western MO and eastern KS, but
this could change toward sunrise as these clouds are thinning out a
bit. For now plan no changes to the current dense fog advisory as
observations and webcams across ares outside of the advisory suggest
some of this moisture is taking the form of a low stratus versus
widespread dense fog. If low visibilities do start to become more
widespread then this advisory will need expanding.

Combo of thick low clouds/fog and some thicker cirrus spreading
in from the northwest may make it difficult to reach the 80 degree
mark today. Therefore highs were lowered a few degrees, ranging from
the upper 70s near the KS/MO state line to near 70 across the
Kirksville area where low clouds and fog will take longer to burn
off. May need to watch for a few areas of fog again tonight when a
front will sag into the area from the north but gradually wash out,
resulting in another night of light winds. Lower moisture should keep
any fog from becoming as widespread as it is this morning.

Saturday and Sunday will be dry and warm with a deep upper-level
ridge building into the area. Highs could be as warm as the lower to
even middle 80s on Sunday which will be more typical of early
September (record highs of 87 at both KC and STJ on Sunday should be
safe).

On Monday a cold front will track through the area with showers and a
few thunderstorms likely developing along and ahead of it through the
afternoon. Despite the unseasonably warm airmass in place, marginal
moisture and the presence of a low-level capping inversion don`t
appear supportive of any strong storms or heavy rain with this front.
Will need to keep an eye on this though as mid-level winds will be
fairly strong, so the threat for strong storms could increase if
instability trends stronger than currently expected.

A shift into quasi-zonal upper flow behind the front will bring a
return to dry conditions for much of next week while temperatures
drop closer to seasonal normals. This could mean lows in the upper
30s for some areas later next week, but for now there don`t appear to
be any significant frost or freeze threats for the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Widespread fog and low stratus should stay status quo for a couple of
hours, then slowly lift into a high-end IFR deck and eventually into
MVFR before scattering out by this afternoon. With thick cirrus
coming in from the north, don`t expect much more deterioration of
conditions and may in fact see a bit of improvement by sunrise. Some
fog is again possible early Saturday morning but should be more
patchy in nature.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ002>008-
     012>017-020>025-030>033-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KLSX 240836
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
336 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Weak shortwave will round periphery of mid/upper ridge with main impact
being an increase in high-level cloudiness for portions of the area.
At the sfc...a weak frontal boundary will approach northwestern sections
of the CWFA by 0000 UTC Saturday. At this time...no wet weather is
expected to accompany this frontal boundary. Temperatures will continue
on the upswing with highs back above average ranging from the upper
60s over south-central Illinois to low/mid 70s for portions of central...
east-central...and southeastern Missouri.


Gosselin


.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014


(Tonight - Monday)

Aforementioned frontal boundary is progged to move through the rest of
the CWA overnight tonight with little fanfare other than a subtle wind
shift from the southwest to the west/northwest. With light winds and
clearing skies behind boundary and associated shortwave trough...did
lean a bit toward cooler NWP guidance with lows mainly in the 50s across
the area.

The Saturday through Monday period will be characterized by well-above
normal temperatures as upper-level ridging builds overhead and 850-hPa
thermal ridge advects toward the mid-Mississippi Valley. Have upped highs
quite a bit from previous forecast into the 70s/80s areawide or some
10-20 degrees above normal. Lows will also follow suit and get progressively
warmer. All in all...dry and unseasonably warm will be the rule with
record or near-record high and/or high low temperatures possible.


(Monday Night - Thursday)

A cold front will move through the area on Monday night with medium-ranged
guidance in very good agreement with fropa timing and associated rain
chances. This front should bring a fairly good chance of showers with
thunder also possible. Instability looks almost non-existent however due
to low-leevl ridging preventing Gulf moisture from streaming northward.
However...did leave mention of thunder in the grids as believe there
should be at least some meager instability...if nothing else due to the
very anomalous sfc temps. This front will also finally move out the
unseasonably warm temperatures and usher in daytime highs and nighttime
lows much closer to seasonal norms for late October. Highs are expected
to be back in the 60s with lows in the 40s Tuesday through Thursday along
with dry weather conditions.


Gosselin


&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1106 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

A band of clouds around 3000-5000 feet was moving southeastward
through the taf sites this evening. Behind it partial clearing was
leading to the development of patchy stratus and fog.  Additional
development of stratus clouds and fog can be expected late
tonight with the models depicting plenty of boundary layer
moisture. These low level clouds and fog will dissipate by late
Friday morning. A swly surface wind can be expected late tonight
and Friday.

Specifics for KSTL: Stratus clouds and fog will develop late
tonight with MVFR conditions. These low level, MVFR clouds and fog will
dissipate by late Friday morning. Light sly surface wind will veer
around to a swly direction late tonight, then back around to a
sly direction again late Friday afternoon.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     73  59  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
Quincy          68  54  75  50 /   5   0   0   0
Columbia        73  56  79  58 /   5   0   0   0
Jefferson City  74  56  80  55 /   5   0   0   0
Salem           69  53  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
Farmington      72  54  80  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 240833
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
333 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Areas of dense fog were occurring across portions of southwestern
Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas again this morning. This
was resulting from ground moisture from the showers yesterday and
surface high pressure just south of the Ozarks. The fog was the
thickest where winds were light or calm. When winds came up a
little visibilities improved, only to drop again when the winds
diminished. This will continue through sunrise this morning as
temperatures fall into the middle 40s across south central
Missouri, closer to the surface high, and into the middle 50s
across western Missouri as an upper level ridge begins to build
into the area.

As the ridge builds into the area today, temperatures will climb
into the middle to upper 70s. Winds will turn out of the south but
should remain fairly light. As the broad upper level ridge slides
across the southern plains and towards the Ozarks, temperatures
will be on the warm side with overnight lows about 10-15 degrees
warmer than normal for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

The upper level ridge will be in control of the region`s weather
through the weekend as it makes its slow eastward progression. The
result will be warmer than normal temperatures through the weekend
with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s and overnight
lows only falling into the middle 50s to lower 60s. It will be
possible that some locations may approach record highs through the
weekend. See the Climo section below for the record highs through
the weekend.

An upper level trough will make its way across the CONUS starting
next week with a surface low and cold front moving through the
Ozarks late Monday night through mid day Tuesday. This will be the
region`s next and best chance for rain through next week. Another
weak wave does move across the plains early Thursday morning, but
the models have very different precipitation outputs at the
moment. The ECMWF brings rain through the Ozarks while the GFS is
nearly dry.

With the upper level trough that brings the rain early next week
will come more seasonable temperatures with highs in the 60s and
night time lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Fog has become more dense tonight than initially expected...and
will be the main aviation concern through morning. Visibilities
will vary widely in both space and time...with some terminals
seeing vis vary between VFR and airport minimums within the span
of an hour. Right now, fog is expected to be most widespread at
SGF, followed by JLN and then BBG. However, confidence in exact
magnitude is low.

Along with the fog...cigs will also vary widely...ranging from VFR
to LIFR.

Conditions should improve considerably within a few hours of
sunrise Friday morning, with VFR expected from mid morning as
skies clear and fog dissipates.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ077-079-
     088>091-093>096-101>105.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Boxell






000
FXUS63 KEAX 240828
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
328 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Fog is the main concern this morning with widespread dense fog over
much of northern Missouri, becoming lighter in nature across areas
further south and west. Occasional high clouds have kept this fog
from becoming more widespread across western MO and eastern KS, but
this could change toward sunrise as these clouds are thinning out a
bit. For now plan no changes to the current dense fog advisory as
observations and webcams across ares outside of the advisory suggest
some of this moisture is taking the form of a low stratus versus
widespread dense fog. If low visibilities do start to become more
widespread then this advisory will need expanding.

Combo of thick low clouds/fog and some thicker cirrus spreading
in from the northwest may make it difficult to reach the 80 degree
mark today. Therefore highs were lowered a few degrees, ranging from
the upper 70s near the KS/MO state line to near 70 across the
Kirksville area where low clouds and fog will take longer to burn
off. May need to watch for a few areas of fog again tonight when a
front will sag into the area from the north but gradually wash out,
resulting in another night of light winds. Lower moisture should keep
any fog from becoming as widespread as it is this morning.

Saturday and Sunday will be dry and warm with a deep upper-level
ridge building into the area. Highs could be as warm as the lower to
even middle 80s on Sunday which will be more typical of early
September (record highs of 87 at both KC and STJ on Sunday should be
safe).

On Monday a cold front will track through the area with showers and a
few thunderstorms likely developing along and ahead of it through the
afternoon. Despite the unseasonably warm airmass in place, marginal
moisture and the presence of a low-level capping inversion don`t
appear supportive of any strong storms or heavy rain with this front.
Will need to keep an eye on this though as mid-level winds will be
fairly strong, so the threat for strong storms could increase if
instability trends stronger than currently expected.

A shift into quasi-zonal upper flow behind the front will bring a
return to dry conditions for much of next week while temperatures
drop closer to seasonal normals. This could mean lows in the upper
30s for some areas later next week, but for now there don`t appear to
be any significant frost or freeze threats for the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Very tricky TAF forecast during the first 10 hours of the TAF period
as fog will be a player during this timeframe. Currently the TAF
sites have vsbys ranging from 2SM-4SM. These vsbys will either hold
steady or perhaps even improve with a bkn high cirrus deck moving
over the terminals. Overnight, this cirrus deck may thin and fog may
become more dense. If this scenario were to come to fruition, vsby
would drop to 1/4SM-1SM and as such have added a tempo group for
those potential conds mainly btn 10Z-14Z. It is during this time
frame model guidance and soundings are also hinting at a IFR stratus
deck and have included that in the TEMPO grp as well. But, if the
high clouds do hold over the terminals all night vsbys will remain
MVFR even VFR is conds improve. Fog is expected to hold over the
terminals btn 14Z-15Z when vsbys will lift to P6SM and cigs will sct
btn 2-3kft. Expect skies to clear tonight and that may set the stage
for an early onset of fog tomorrow night at fog prone STJ where vsbys
will decrease in a hurry. Winds thru mid morning will be light out of
the south before veering to the SSW an increasing to around 10kts.
Winds will again diminish tomorrow night to around 5kts which will
also aid in potential fog development tomorrow night.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ003>008-
     013>017-021>025-030>032.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 240459
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1159 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

The main challenge for tonight is the potential for dense fog
tonight or whether the lower stratus will redevelop. The boundary
layer is very moist both from recent rainfall but more so from moist
advection into the area. This is leading guidance depicting high
probabilities for fog development. The 23/15Z SREF shows
probabilities of seeing less than a mile visibility around 75%. But
there is an equal probability of low stratus. Soundings suggest that
we don`t fully decouple and the result would be low stratus with
more minor fog development. For now, have added areas of fog to
northern/northeastern MO and patchy fog for the rest of the forecast
area. Have also increased cloud cover for the overnight period to
get some mention of clouds but not certain on when/if or even where
any stratus may redevelop have at this point have not gone more than
about 50% sky cover over the forecast area after the current stratus
either moves away or breaks up.

Otherwise, the weather for the weekend looks to be calm and warm for
this time of year. For Friday, highs near 80 seem likely given the
very warm air aloft. However, if cloud cover hangs on later than
expected, temperatures may not rebound as high as forecast. Clouds
seem more likely to linger over the northeastern quadrant of the
forecast area so temperatures closer to 70 look more likely in the
Kirksville area. A weak front may move into/through the area on
Saturday and knock a few degrees off temperatures compared to
Friday. This should be short-lived through as winds again return from
the south and allow temperatures to climb to or above 80 degrees.
This around 15 degrees above normal for this time of year so very
warm for late October.

Our next good chance for rain looks to be Monday and Monday night. A
progressive shortwave trough will track across the Central Plains
and into the Midwest with its associated front trailing through our
region. This should lead to showers and a storms during the day
Monday with thunderstorms diminishing Monday night as instability
wanes. The precipitation should move of the area by Tuesday, though
the GEM is the slowest with the trough and keeps a fair amount of
rain in the area through the day. Have side more with the GFS and
ECMWF, which have been handling the recent upper waves more
consistently, and trimmed back POPs for Tuesday to just the far
eastern zones. For Wednesday and Thursday, the upper ridge will
rebuild over the west with northwesterly flow regime over the Plains
and Missouri Valley. This looks to keep temperatures closer to
seasonal normals with dry conditions expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Very tricky TAF forecast during the first 10 hours of the TAF period
as fog will be a player during this timeframe. Currently the TAF
sites have vsbys ranging from 2SM-4SM. These vsbys will either hold
steady or perhaps even improve with a bkn high cirrus deck moving
over the terminals. Overnight, this cirrus deck may thin and fog may
become more dense. If this scenario were to come to fruition, vsby
would drop to 1/4SM-1SM and as such have added a tempo group for
those potential conds mainly btn 10Z-14Z. It is during this time
frame model guidance and soundings are also hinting at a IFR stratus
deck and have included that in the TEMPO grp as well. But, if the
high clouds do hold over the terminals all night vsbys will remain
MVFR even VFR is conds improve. Fog is expected to hold over the
terminals btn 14Z-15Z when vsbys will lift to P6SM and cigs will sct
btn 2-3kft. Expect skies to clear tonight and that may set the stage
for an early onset of fog tomorrow night at fog prone STJ where vsbys
will decrease in a hurry. Winds thru mid morning will be light out of
the south before veering to the SSW an increasing to around 10kts.
Winds will again diminish tomorrow night to around 5kts which will
also aid in potential fog development tomorrow night.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT Friday FOR MOZ003>008-013>017-
     021>025-030>032.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 240459
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1159 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

The main challenge for tonight is the potential for dense fog
tonight or whether the lower stratus will redevelop. The boundary
layer is very moist both from recent rainfall but more so from moist
advection into the area. This is leading guidance depicting high
probabilities for fog development. The 23/15Z SREF shows
probabilities of seeing less than a mile visibility around 75%. But
there is an equal probability of low stratus. Soundings suggest that
we don`t fully decouple and the result would be low stratus with
more minor fog development. For now, have added areas of fog to
northern/northeastern MO and patchy fog for the rest of the forecast
area. Have also increased cloud cover for the overnight period to
get some mention of clouds but not certain on when/if or even where
any stratus may redevelop have at this point have not gone more than
about 50% sky cover over the forecast area after the current stratus
either moves away or breaks up.

Otherwise, the weather for the weekend looks to be calm and warm for
this time of year. For Friday, highs near 80 seem likely given the
very warm air aloft. However, if cloud cover hangs on later than
expected, temperatures may not rebound as high as forecast. Clouds
seem more likely to linger over the northeastern quadrant of the
forecast area so temperatures closer to 70 look more likely in the
Kirksville area. A weak front may move into/through the area on
Saturday and knock a few degrees off temperatures compared to
Friday. This should be short-lived through as winds again return from
the south and allow temperatures to climb to or above 80 degrees.
This around 15 degrees above normal for this time of year so very
warm for late October.

Our next good chance for rain looks to be Monday and Monday night. A
progressive shortwave trough will track across the Central Plains
and into the Midwest with its associated front trailing through our
region. This should lead to showers and a storms during the day
Monday with thunderstorms diminishing Monday night as instability
wanes. The precipitation should move of the area by Tuesday, though
the GEM is the slowest with the trough and keeps a fair amount of
rain in the area through the day. Have side more with the GFS and
ECMWF, which have been handling the recent upper waves more
consistently, and trimmed back POPs for Tuesday to just the far
eastern zones. For Wednesday and Thursday, the upper ridge will
rebuild over the west with northwesterly flow regime over the Plains
and Missouri Valley. This looks to keep temperatures closer to
seasonal normals with dry conditions expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Very tricky TAF forecast during the first 10 hours of the TAF period
as fog will be a player during this timeframe. Currently the TAF
sites have vsbys ranging from 2SM-4SM. These vsbys will either hold
steady or perhaps even improve with a bkn high cirrus deck moving
over the terminals. Overnight, this cirrus deck may thin and fog may
become more dense. If this scenario were to come to fruition, vsby
would drop to 1/4SM-1SM and as such have added a tempo group for
those potential conds mainly btn 10Z-14Z. It is during this time
frame model guidance and soundings are also hinting at a IFR stratus
deck and have included that in the TEMPO grp as well. But, if the
high clouds do hold over the terminals all night vsbys will remain
MVFR even VFR is conds improve. Fog is expected to hold over the
terminals btn 14Z-15Z when vsbys will lift to P6SM and cigs will sct
btn 2-3kft. Expect skies to clear tonight and that may set the stage
for an early onset of fog tomorrow night at fog prone STJ where vsbys
will decrease in a hurry. Winds thru mid morning will be light out of
the south before veering to the SSW an increasing to around 10kts.
Winds will again diminish tomorrow night to around 5kts which will
also aid in potential fog development tomorrow night.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT Friday FOR MOZ003>008-013>017-
     021>025-030>032.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73







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