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000
FXUS63 KSGF 261132 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
632 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 236 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

Mild and cloudy conditions are occurring this morning across the
region, as post-frontal stratus builds south into the area. Despite
northerly winds, temperatures have remained rather warm, with 2 AM
readings in the mid 50s in most spots. Temperatures will slowly
fall into the upper 40s and low 50s by daybreak.

Cloud cover will be somewhat slow to clear today, though a
combination of dry air advection and daytime mixing should allow the
stratus to scatter out by mid to late afternoon.  Highs today will
be on the cool side of average, with low 60s for most.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

The next storm system of interest is digging across the
Intermountain West this morning, and will close off across eastern
New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle by tonight. This upper low will
then slowly move across the I-40 corridor through Tuesday.  The
Ozarks look to be on the northern fringe of the precipitation with
this system, with light showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two
possible late Sunday through Tuesday, mainly southwest of a
Pittsburg to Branson line.  Further north an increase in low and
high level cloud cover can be expected, but enough dry air should be
in place in the mid levels to keep any measurable precipitation at
bay. That cloud cover, along with continued east to northeast flow
at the surface, will keep temperatures in the low 60s Monday and
Tuesday.

The upper level pattern will then amplify considerably by the middle
of the week, with very deep troughing across the Mid-Atlantic and
New England, as well as across the Northern Rockies.  In between, a
strong upper level ridge will stretch from the Desert Southwest into
the western Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure should
remain in control across much of the Nation`s midsection through
at least the beginning of next weekend. This should result in dry
and very pleasant conditions through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

Primary forecast concern is the stratus deck currently overhead.
IFR to low end MVFR ceilings are widespread across the region this
morning. Ongoing 12z KSGF raob indicates that this stratus is
nearly 5000 feet thick, so it will take some work to scatter out
this deck today. Recent runs of near term models indicate a
gradual lifting of the deck, along with an infusion of low level
dry air from the north/northeast. This will result in conditions
improving to high end MVFR by midday, with the stratus deck
scattering out by the mid afternoon hours. Mid/high level clouds
will stick around for the rest of the forecast. Winds will be from
the northeast today, shifting to the east/southeast tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 261132 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
632 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 236 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

Mild and cloudy conditions are occurring this morning across the
region, as post-frontal stratus builds south into the area. Despite
northerly winds, temperatures have remained rather warm, with 2 AM
readings in the mid 50s in most spots. Temperatures will slowly
fall into the upper 40s and low 50s by daybreak.

Cloud cover will be somewhat slow to clear today, though a
combination of dry air advection and daytime mixing should allow the
stratus to scatter out by mid to late afternoon.  Highs today will
be on the cool side of average, with low 60s for most.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

The next storm system of interest is digging across the
Intermountain West this morning, and will close off across eastern
New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle by tonight. This upper low will
then slowly move across the I-40 corridor through Tuesday.  The
Ozarks look to be on the northern fringe of the precipitation with
this system, with light showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two
possible late Sunday through Tuesday, mainly southwest of a
Pittsburg to Branson line.  Further north an increase in low and
high level cloud cover can be expected, but enough dry air should be
in place in the mid levels to keep any measurable precipitation at
bay. That cloud cover, along with continued east to northeast flow
at the surface, will keep temperatures in the low 60s Monday and
Tuesday.

The upper level pattern will then amplify considerably by the middle
of the week, with very deep troughing across the Mid-Atlantic and
New England, as well as across the Northern Rockies.  In between, a
strong upper level ridge will stretch from the Desert Southwest into
the western Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure should
remain in control across much of the Nation`s midsection through
at least the beginning of next weekend. This should result in dry
and very pleasant conditions through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

Primary forecast concern is the stratus deck currently overhead.
IFR to low end MVFR ceilings are widespread across the region this
morning. Ongoing 12z KSGF raob indicates that this stratus is
nearly 5000 feet thick, so it will take some work to scatter out
this deck today. Recent runs of near term models indicate a
gradual lifting of the deck, along with an infusion of low level
dry air from the north/northeast. This will result in conditions
improving to high end MVFR by midday, with the stratus deck
scattering out by the mid afternoon hours. Mid/high level clouds
will stick around for the rest of the forecast. Winds will be from
the northeast today, shifting to the east/southeast tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 261132 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
632 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 236 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

Mild and cloudy conditions are occurring this morning across the
region, as post-frontal stratus builds south into the area. Despite
northerly winds, temperatures have remained rather warm, with 2 AM
readings in the mid 50s in most spots. Temperatures will slowly
fall into the upper 40s and low 50s by daybreak.

Cloud cover will be somewhat slow to clear today, though a
combination of dry air advection and daytime mixing should allow the
stratus to scatter out by mid to late afternoon.  Highs today will
be on the cool side of average, with low 60s for most.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

The next storm system of interest is digging across the
Intermountain West this morning, and will close off across eastern
New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle by tonight. This upper low will
then slowly move across the I-40 corridor through Tuesday.  The
Ozarks look to be on the northern fringe of the precipitation with
this system, with light showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two
possible late Sunday through Tuesday, mainly southwest of a
Pittsburg to Branson line.  Further north an increase in low and
high level cloud cover can be expected, but enough dry air should be
in place in the mid levels to keep any measurable precipitation at
bay. That cloud cover, along with continued east to northeast flow
at the surface, will keep temperatures in the low 60s Monday and
Tuesday.

The upper level pattern will then amplify considerably by the middle
of the week, with very deep troughing across the Mid-Atlantic and
New England, as well as across the Northern Rockies.  In between, a
strong upper level ridge will stretch from the Desert Southwest into
the western Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure should
remain in control across much of the Nation`s midsection through
at least the beginning of next weekend. This should result in dry
and very pleasant conditions through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

Primary forecast concern is the stratus deck currently overhead.
IFR to low end MVFR ceilings are widespread across the region this
morning. Ongoing 12z KSGF raob indicates that this stratus is
nearly 5000 feet thick, so it will take some work to scatter out
this deck today. Recent runs of near term models indicate a
gradual lifting of the deck, along with an infusion of low level
dry air from the north/northeast. This will result in conditions
improving to high end MVFR by midday, with the stratus deck
scattering out by the mid afternoon hours. Mid/high level clouds
will stick around for the rest of the forecast. Winds will be from
the northeast today, shifting to the east/southeast tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 261132 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
632 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 236 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

Mild and cloudy conditions are occurring this morning across the
region, as post-frontal stratus builds south into the area. Despite
northerly winds, temperatures have remained rather warm, with 2 AM
readings in the mid 50s in most spots. Temperatures will slowly
fall into the upper 40s and low 50s by daybreak.

Cloud cover will be somewhat slow to clear today, though a
combination of dry air advection and daytime mixing should allow the
stratus to scatter out by mid to late afternoon.  Highs today will
be on the cool side of average, with low 60s for most.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

The next storm system of interest is digging across the
Intermountain West this morning, and will close off across eastern
New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle by tonight. This upper low will
then slowly move across the I-40 corridor through Tuesday.  The
Ozarks look to be on the northern fringe of the precipitation with
this system, with light showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two
possible late Sunday through Tuesday, mainly southwest of a
Pittsburg to Branson line.  Further north an increase in low and
high level cloud cover can be expected, but enough dry air should be
in place in the mid levels to keep any measurable precipitation at
bay. That cloud cover, along with continued east to northeast flow
at the surface, will keep temperatures in the low 60s Monday and
Tuesday.

The upper level pattern will then amplify considerably by the middle
of the week, with very deep troughing across the Mid-Atlantic and
New England, as well as across the Northern Rockies.  In between, a
strong upper level ridge will stretch from the Desert Southwest into
the western Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure should
remain in control across much of the Nation`s midsection through
at least the beginning of next weekend. This should result in dry
and very pleasant conditions through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

Primary forecast concern is the stratus deck currently overhead.
IFR to low end MVFR ceilings are widespread across the region this
morning. Ongoing 12z KSGF raob indicates that this stratus is
nearly 5000 feet thick, so it will take some work to scatter out
this deck today. Recent runs of near term models indicate a
gradual lifting of the deck, along with an infusion of low level
dry air from the north/northeast. This will result in conditions
improving to high end MVFR by midday, with the stratus deck
scattering out by the mid afternoon hours. Mid/high level clouds
will stick around for the rest of the forecast. Winds will be from
the northeast today, shifting to the east/southeast tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Gagan





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KEAX 261100
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
600 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

Early morning stratus should gradually dissipate through the day,
but even with some breaks in the clouds its unlikely that the skies
will completely clear out prior to the late afternoon to early
evening hours. Good saturation in the lowest hundred or so mb
keeping the chances for drizzle alive, but through the sunrise hours
some low level dry air will work its way into the saturated low
levels. So by sunrise drizzle should be coming to an end. Despite
the drizzle and perhaps some very light rain, dry conditions will
prevail over the next few days, as a stout surface ridge will nose
into the area keeping us in the dry northerly surface flow. The only
notable chance for precipitation for the area would likely come in
the far southern part of the CWA. A mid level trough will cut off
from the mean flow aloft and kick off thunderstorms in Texas and
Oklahoma over the next couple days. As of now, the low looks to
track far enough south to prevent much - if any - in the way of
precipitation in the CWA. Given the upstream ridging and persistent
high pressure in the area through at least mid week, it appears the
area will remain clear of any appreciable precipitation through that
time period. By mid to late part of the upcoming work week mid level
ridging will take form over the area, causing a nice warm up, back
into the 70s, with perhaps a smattering of 80s for the
Friday/Saturday time period. With the mid level ridge overhead and
upstream troughing, southerly winds will come around from the south
for the mid-late week time period, which will reintroduce some
moisture into the area. While this forecast doesn`t reflect much in
the way of measurable rain, the influx of moisture and southwest
flow aloft for late this week into next weekend would warrant some
attention for eventual rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 553 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

Stratus moving through the area will bounce between MVFR and IFR
levels. CIGs will gradually improve through the day, eventually going
to VFR by the afternoon. Thereafter expect no flight restrictions
through the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton






000
FXUS63 KEAX 261100
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
600 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

Early morning stratus should gradually dissipate through the day,
but even with some breaks in the clouds its unlikely that the skies
will completely clear out prior to the late afternoon to early
evening hours. Good saturation in the lowest hundred or so mb
keeping the chances for drizzle alive, but through the sunrise hours
some low level dry air will work its way into the saturated low
levels. So by sunrise drizzle should be coming to an end. Despite
the drizzle and perhaps some very light rain, dry conditions will
prevail over the next few days, as a stout surface ridge will nose
into the area keeping us in the dry northerly surface flow. The only
notable chance for precipitation for the area would likely come in
the far southern part of the CWA. A mid level trough will cut off
from the mean flow aloft and kick off thunderstorms in Texas and
Oklahoma over the next couple days. As of now, the low looks to
track far enough south to prevent much - if any - in the way of
precipitation in the CWA. Given the upstream ridging and persistent
high pressure in the area through at least mid week, it appears the
area will remain clear of any appreciable precipitation through that
time period. By mid to late part of the upcoming work week mid level
ridging will take form over the area, causing a nice warm up, back
into the 70s, with perhaps a smattering of 80s for the
Friday/Saturday time period. With the mid level ridge overhead and
upstream troughing, southerly winds will come around from the south
for the mid-late week time period, which will reintroduce some
moisture into the area. While this forecast doesn`t reflect much in
the way of measurable rain, the influx of moisture and southwest
flow aloft for late this week into next weekend would warrant some
attention for eventual rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 553 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

Stratus moving through the area will bounce between MVFR and IFR
levels. CIGs will gradually improve through the day, eventually going
to VFR by the afternoon. Thereafter expect no flight restrictions
through the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 261100
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
600 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

Early morning stratus should gradually dissipate through the day,
but even with some breaks in the clouds its unlikely that the skies
will completely clear out prior to the late afternoon to early
evening hours. Good saturation in the lowest hundred or so mb
keeping the chances for drizzle alive, but through the sunrise hours
some low level dry air will work its way into the saturated low
levels. So by sunrise drizzle should be coming to an end. Despite
the drizzle and perhaps some very light rain, dry conditions will
prevail over the next few days, as a stout surface ridge will nose
into the area keeping us in the dry northerly surface flow. The only
notable chance for precipitation for the area would likely come in
the far southern part of the CWA. A mid level trough will cut off
from the mean flow aloft and kick off thunderstorms in Texas and
Oklahoma over the next couple days. As of now, the low looks to
track far enough south to prevent much - if any - in the way of
precipitation in the CWA. Given the upstream ridging and persistent
high pressure in the area through at least mid week, it appears the
area will remain clear of any appreciable precipitation through that
time period. By mid to late part of the upcoming work week mid level
ridging will take form over the area, causing a nice warm up, back
into the 70s, with perhaps a smattering of 80s for the
Friday/Saturday time period. With the mid level ridge overhead and
upstream troughing, southerly winds will come around from the south
for the mid-late week time period, which will reintroduce some
moisture into the area. While this forecast doesn`t reflect much in
the way of measurable rain, the influx of moisture and southwest
flow aloft for late this week into next weekend would warrant some
attention for eventual rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 553 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

Stratus moving through the area will bounce between MVFR and IFR
levels. CIGs will gradually improve through the day, eventually going
to VFR by the afternoon. Thereafter expect no flight restrictions
through the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 261100
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
600 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

Early morning stratus should gradually dissipate through the day,
but even with some breaks in the clouds its unlikely that the skies
will completely clear out prior to the late afternoon to early
evening hours. Good saturation in the lowest hundred or so mb
keeping the chances for drizzle alive, but through the sunrise hours
some low level dry air will work its way into the saturated low
levels. So by sunrise drizzle should be coming to an end. Despite
the drizzle and perhaps some very light rain, dry conditions will
prevail over the next few days, as a stout surface ridge will nose
into the area keeping us in the dry northerly surface flow. The only
notable chance for precipitation for the area would likely come in
the far southern part of the CWA. A mid level trough will cut off
from the mean flow aloft and kick off thunderstorms in Texas and
Oklahoma over the next couple days. As of now, the low looks to
track far enough south to prevent much - if any - in the way of
precipitation in the CWA. Given the upstream ridging and persistent
high pressure in the area through at least mid week, it appears the
area will remain clear of any appreciable precipitation through that
time period. By mid to late part of the upcoming work week mid level
ridging will take form over the area, causing a nice warm up, back
into the 70s, with perhaps a smattering of 80s for the
Friday/Saturday time period. With the mid level ridge overhead and
upstream troughing, southerly winds will come around from the south
for the mid-late week time period, which will reintroduce some
moisture into the area. While this forecast doesn`t reflect much in
the way of measurable rain, the influx of moisture and southwest
flow aloft for late this week into next weekend would warrant some
attention for eventual rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 553 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

Stratus moving through the area will bounce between MVFR and IFR
levels. CIGs will gradually improve through the day, eventually going
to VFR by the afternoon. Thereafter expect no flight restrictions
through the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 261100
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
600 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

Early morning stratus should gradually dissipate through the day,
but even with some breaks in the clouds its unlikely that the skies
will completely clear out prior to the late afternoon to early
evening hours. Good saturation in the lowest hundred or so mb
keeping the chances for drizzle alive, but through the sunrise hours
some low level dry air will work its way into the saturated low
levels. So by sunrise drizzle should be coming to an end. Despite
the drizzle and perhaps some very light rain, dry conditions will
prevail over the next few days, as a stout surface ridge will nose
into the area keeping us in the dry northerly surface flow. The only
notable chance for precipitation for the area would likely come in
the far southern part of the CWA. A mid level trough will cut off
from the mean flow aloft and kick off thunderstorms in Texas and
Oklahoma over the next couple days. As of now, the low looks to
track far enough south to prevent much - if any - in the way of
precipitation in the CWA. Given the upstream ridging and persistent
high pressure in the area through at least mid week, it appears the
area will remain clear of any appreciable precipitation through that
time period. By mid to late part of the upcoming work week mid level
ridging will take form over the area, causing a nice warm up, back
into the 70s, with perhaps a smattering of 80s for the
Friday/Saturday time period. With the mid level ridge overhead and
upstream troughing, southerly winds will come around from the south
for the mid-late week time period, which will reintroduce some
moisture into the area. While this forecast doesn`t reflect much in
the way of measurable rain, the influx of moisture and southwest
flow aloft for late this week into next weekend would warrant some
attention for eventual rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 553 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

Stratus moving through the area will bounce between MVFR and IFR
levels. CIGs will gradually improve through the day, eventually going
to VFR by the afternoon. Thereafter expect no flight restrictions
through the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 261100
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
600 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

Early morning stratus should gradually dissipate through the day,
but even with some breaks in the clouds its unlikely that the skies
will completely clear out prior to the late afternoon to early
evening hours. Good saturation in the lowest hundred or so mb
keeping the chances for drizzle alive, but through the sunrise hours
some low level dry air will work its way into the saturated low
levels. So by sunrise drizzle should be coming to an end. Despite
the drizzle and perhaps some very light rain, dry conditions will
prevail over the next few days, as a stout surface ridge will nose
into the area keeping us in the dry northerly surface flow. The only
notable chance for precipitation for the area would likely come in
the far southern part of the CWA. A mid level trough will cut off
from the mean flow aloft and kick off thunderstorms in Texas and
Oklahoma over the next couple days. As of now, the low looks to
track far enough south to prevent much - if any - in the way of
precipitation in the CWA. Given the upstream ridging and persistent
high pressure in the area through at least mid week, it appears the
area will remain clear of any appreciable precipitation through that
time period. By mid to late part of the upcoming work week mid level
ridging will take form over the area, causing a nice warm up, back
into the 70s, with perhaps a smattering of 80s for the
Friday/Saturday time period. With the mid level ridge overhead and
upstream troughing, southerly winds will come around from the south
for the mid-late week time period, which will reintroduce some
moisture into the area. While this forecast doesn`t reflect much in
the way of measurable rain, the influx of moisture and southwest
flow aloft for late this week into next weekend would warrant some
attention for eventual rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 553 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

Stratus moving through the area will bounce between MVFR and IFR
levels. CIGs will gradually improve through the day, eventually going
to VFR by the afternoon. Thereafter expect no flight restrictions
through the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KLSX 261032
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
532 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

Quiet weather is expected today. Temperatures across the southern
two-thirds of the CWA may be initially slow to warm due to
extensive morning cloud cover, but temperatures ought to rise
quickly after the stratus scatters out this afternoon, allowing
highs to reach the lower 60s for most of the area.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

There is very little to discuss in the extended forecast. The
strong PV anomaly noted on 26/07z water vapor imagery near the
CA/AZ border is forecast to close off as it slowly progresses
eastward over the next few days, likely passing south of the CWA.
It is possible that the extreme southern CWA could be on the
extreme northern fringe of the precip shield, but confidence is
too low to introduce PoPs attm. There are some model differences
during the middle of the week with respect to a northwest flow
vort max and its interaction with the aforementioned slow-moving
low pressure system, but moisture appears limited across this part
of the country. Even if a vort max does approach the CWA, an
increase in cloud cover seems more likely than precipitation. In
the absence of any large scale air mass exchanges and with a
steady northerly flow component at the surface, temperatures over
the next several days will tend to moderate slowly towards more
seasonable values with day to day variations largely dependent on
the amount of cloud cover. Precip chances increase marginally
towards the end of the week and into the early part of next
weekend.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 448 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

The stratus clouds were clearing out across parts of northeast MO
and west central IL early this morning as nely winds were bringing
drier air into the region. This clearing line will continue to
progress southwestward this morning with the MVFR, low level cloud
ceiling in COU and the St Louis metro area slowly rising and
eventually scattering out later this morning. Little if any
cloudiness is expected this afternoon and tonight, maybe a little
cirrus with subsidence across the area as the surface ridge
centered over MN and WI builds southward into the region. Nely
surface winds will continue through the period becoming quite light
later tonight.

Specifics for KSTL: MVFR cigs along with patchy light fog and
drizzle can be expected early this morning with the cloud ceiling
rising and eventually scattering out around 15z this morning.
Little if any cloudiness is expected from this afternoon through
Monday morning, except a little cirrus clouds. Nely surface wind
will continue today, becoming light by late tonight, then increasing
again Monday morning.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 261032
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
532 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

Quiet weather is expected today. Temperatures across the southern
two-thirds of the CWA may be initially slow to warm due to
extensive morning cloud cover, but temperatures ought to rise
quickly after the stratus scatters out this afternoon, allowing
highs to reach the lower 60s for most of the area.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

There is very little to discuss in the extended forecast. The
strong PV anomaly noted on 26/07z water vapor imagery near the
CA/AZ border is forecast to close off as it slowly progresses
eastward over the next few days, likely passing south of the CWA.
It is possible that the extreme southern CWA could be on the
extreme northern fringe of the precip shield, but confidence is
too low to introduce PoPs attm. There are some model differences
during the middle of the week with respect to a northwest flow
vort max and its interaction with the aforementioned slow-moving
low pressure system, but moisture appears limited across this part
of the country. Even if a vort max does approach the CWA, an
increase in cloud cover seems more likely than precipitation. In
the absence of any large scale air mass exchanges and with a
steady northerly flow component at the surface, temperatures over
the next several days will tend to moderate slowly towards more
seasonable values with day to day variations largely dependent on
the amount of cloud cover. Precip chances increase marginally
towards the end of the week and into the early part of next
weekend.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 448 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

The stratus clouds were clearing out across parts of northeast MO
and west central IL early this morning as nely winds were bringing
drier air into the region. This clearing line will continue to
progress southwestward this morning with the MVFR, low level cloud
ceiling in COU and the St Louis metro area slowly rising and
eventually scattering out later this morning. Little if any
cloudiness is expected this afternoon and tonight, maybe a little
cirrus with subsidence across the area as the surface ridge
centered over MN and WI builds southward into the region. Nely
surface winds will continue through the period becoming quite light
later tonight.

Specifics for KSTL: MVFR cigs along with patchy light fog and
drizzle can be expected early this morning with the cloud ceiling
rising and eventually scattering out around 15z this morning.
Little if any cloudiness is expected from this afternoon through
Monday morning, except a little cirrus clouds. Nely surface wind
will continue today, becoming light by late tonight, then increasing
again Monday morning.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 260843
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
343 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

Early morning stratus should gradually dissipate through the day,
but even with some breaks in the clouds its unlikely that the skies
will completely clear out prior to the late afternoon to early
evening hours. Good saturation in the lowest hundred or so mb
keeping the chances for drizzle alive, but through the sunrise hours
some low level dry air will work its way into the saturated low
levels. So by sunrise drizzle should be coming to an end. Despite
the drizzle and perhaps some very light rain, dry conditions will
prevail over the next few days, as a stout surface ridge will nose
into the area keeping us in the dry northerly surface flow. The only
notable chance for precipitation for the area would likely come in
the far southern part of the CWA. A mid level trough will cut off
from the mean flow aloft and kick off thunderstorms in Texas and
Oklahoma over the next couple days. As of now, the low looks to
track far enough south to prevent much - if any - in the way of
precipitation in the CWA. Given the upstream ridging and persistent
high pressure in the area through at least mid week, it appears the
area will remain clear of any appreciable precipitation through that
time period. By mid to late part of the upcoming work week mid level
ridging will take form over the area, causing a nice warm up, back
into the 70s, with perhaps a smattering of 80s for the
Friday/Saturday time period. With the mid level ridge overhead and
upstream troughing, southerly winds will come around from the south
for the mid-late week time period, which will reintroduce some
moisture into the area. While this forecast doesn`t reflect much in
the way of measurable rain, the influx of moisture and southwest
flow aloft for late this week into next weekend would warrant some
attention for eventual rain chances.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A mix of LIFR, IFR, and low-end MVFR conditions exist across the
area, and this should continue through mid-morning at terminals.
Areas of drizzle will continue for a few more hours before
diminishing. Ceilings will improve around 15-18Z with skies becoming
mostly clear towards the end of the TAF period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 260843
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
343 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

Early morning stratus should gradually dissipate through the day,
but even with some breaks in the clouds its unlikely that the skies
will completely clear out prior to the late afternoon to early
evening hours. Good saturation in the lowest hundred or so mb
keeping the chances for drizzle alive, but through the sunrise hours
some low level dry air will work its way into the saturated low
levels. So by sunrise drizzle should be coming to an end. Despite
the drizzle and perhaps some very light rain, dry conditions will
prevail over the next few days, as a stout surface ridge will nose
into the area keeping us in the dry northerly surface flow. The only
notable chance for precipitation for the area would likely come in
the far southern part of the CWA. A mid level trough will cut off
from the mean flow aloft and kick off thunderstorms in Texas and
Oklahoma over the next couple days. As of now, the low looks to
track far enough south to prevent much - if any - in the way of
precipitation in the CWA. Given the upstream ridging and persistent
high pressure in the area through at least mid week, it appears the
area will remain clear of any appreciable precipitation through that
time period. By mid to late part of the upcoming work week mid level
ridging will take form over the area, causing a nice warm up, back
into the 70s, with perhaps a smattering of 80s for the
Friday/Saturday time period. With the mid level ridge overhead and
upstream troughing, southerly winds will come around from the south
for the mid-late week time period, which will reintroduce some
moisture into the area. While this forecast doesn`t reflect much in
the way of measurable rain, the influx of moisture and southwest
flow aloft for late this week into next weekend would warrant some
attention for eventual rain chances.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A mix of LIFR, IFR, and low-end MVFR conditions exist across the
area, and this should continue through mid-morning at terminals.
Areas of drizzle will continue for a few more hours before
diminishing. Ceilings will improve around 15-18Z with skies becoming
mostly clear towards the end of the TAF period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 260843
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
343 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

Early morning stratus should gradually dissipate through the day,
but even with some breaks in the clouds its unlikely that the skies
will completely clear out prior to the late afternoon to early
evening hours. Good saturation in the lowest hundred or so mb
keeping the chances for drizzle alive, but through the sunrise hours
some low level dry air will work its way into the saturated low
levels. So by sunrise drizzle should be coming to an end. Despite
the drizzle and perhaps some very light rain, dry conditions will
prevail over the next few days, as a stout surface ridge will nose
into the area keeping us in the dry northerly surface flow. The only
notable chance for precipitation for the area would likely come in
the far southern part of the CWA. A mid level trough will cut off
from the mean flow aloft and kick off thunderstorms in Texas and
Oklahoma over the next couple days. As of now, the low looks to
track far enough south to prevent much - if any - in the way of
precipitation in the CWA. Given the upstream ridging and persistent
high pressure in the area through at least mid week, it appears the
area will remain clear of any appreciable precipitation through that
time period. By mid to late part of the upcoming work week mid level
ridging will take form over the area, causing a nice warm up, back
into the 70s, with perhaps a smattering of 80s for the
Friday/Saturday time period. With the mid level ridge overhead and
upstream troughing, southerly winds will come around from the south
for the mid-late week time period, which will reintroduce some
moisture into the area. While this forecast doesn`t reflect much in
the way of measurable rain, the influx of moisture and southwest
flow aloft for late this week into next weekend would warrant some
attention for eventual rain chances.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A mix of LIFR, IFR, and low-end MVFR conditions exist across the
area, and this should continue through mid-morning at terminals.
Areas of drizzle will continue for a few more hours before
diminishing. Ceilings will improve around 15-18Z with skies becoming
mostly clear towards the end of the TAF period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Blair






000
FXUS63 KLSX 260819
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
319 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

Quiet weather is expected today. Temperatures across the southern
two-thirds of the CWA may be initially slow to warm due to
extensive morning cloud cover, but temperatures ought to rise
quickly after the stratus scatters out this afternoon, allowing
highs to reach the lower 60s for most of the area.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

There is very little to discuss in the extended forecast. The
strong PV anomaly noted on 26/07z water vapor imagery near the
CA/AZ border is forecast to close off as it slowly progresses
eastward over the next few days, likely passing south of the CWA.
It is possible that the extreme southern CWA could be on the
extreme northern fringe of the precip shield, but confidence is
too low to introduce PoPs attm. There are some model differences
during the middle of the week with respect to a northwest flow
vort max and its interaction with the aforementioned slow-moving
low pressure system, but moisture appears limited across this part
of the country. Even if a vort max does approach the CWA, an
increase in cloud cover seems more likely than precipitation. In
the absence of any large scale air mass exchanges and with a
steady northerly flow component at the surface, temperatures over
the next several days will tend to moderate slowly towards more
seasonable values with day to day variations largely dependent on
the amount of cloud cover. Precip chances increase marginally
towards the end of the week and into the early part of next
weekend.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Band of IFR CIGs will continue to drop south overnight. Assoc -DZ
should also come to an end over the next few hours. Dry NE flow is
expected to push the IFR CIGs south of the terminals early this
mrng leaving a low end VFR CIG deck in place for most of the day.
Model RH indicates the VFR CIGs should clear out drng the late
mrng but based on the existing amount of upstream cloud
cover...think that might be too optimistic...plus there should be a
diurnal component to the clouds as well. Skies should clear out by
Sunday night.

Specifics for KSTL:

-DZ should be coming to an end around 6Z. IFR CIGs are expected to
remain thru the night and slowly raise Sunday mrng becoming VFR by
mid morning as the cloud deck drfts south. Clouds should clear by
tomorrow evng.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 260819
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
319 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

Quiet weather is expected today. Temperatures across the southern
two-thirds of the CWA may be initially slow to warm due to
extensive morning cloud cover, but temperatures ought to rise
quickly after the stratus scatters out this afternoon, allowing
highs to reach the lower 60s for most of the area.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

There is very little to discuss in the extended forecast. The
strong PV anomaly noted on 26/07z water vapor imagery near the
CA/AZ border is forecast to close off as it slowly progresses
eastward over the next few days, likely passing south of the CWA.
It is possible that the extreme southern CWA could be on the
extreme northern fringe of the precip shield, but confidence is
too low to introduce PoPs attm. There are some model differences
during the middle of the week with respect to a northwest flow
vort max and its interaction with the aforementioned slow-moving
low pressure system, but moisture appears limited across this part
of the country. Even if a vort max does approach the CWA, an
increase in cloud cover seems more likely than precipitation. In
the absence of any large scale air mass exchanges and with a
steady northerly flow component at the surface, temperatures over
the next several days will tend to moderate slowly towards more
seasonable values with day to day variations largely dependent on
the amount of cloud cover. Precip chances increase marginally
towards the end of the week and into the early part of next
weekend.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Band of IFR CIGs will continue to drop south overnight. Assoc -DZ
should also come to an end over the next few hours. Dry NE flow is
expected to push the IFR CIGs south of the terminals early this
mrng leaving a low end VFR CIG deck in place for most of the day.
Model RH indicates the VFR CIGs should clear out drng the late
mrng but based on the existing amount of upstream cloud
cover...think that might be too optimistic...plus there should be a
diurnal component to the clouds as well. Skies should clear out by
Sunday night.

Specifics for KSTL:

-DZ should be coming to an end around 6Z. IFR CIGs are expected to
remain thru the night and slowly raise Sunday mrng becoming VFR by
mid morning as the cloud deck drfts south. Clouds should clear by
tomorrow evng.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 260819
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
319 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

Quiet weather is expected today. Temperatures across the southern
two-thirds of the CWA may be initially slow to warm due to
extensive morning cloud cover, but temperatures ought to rise
quickly after the stratus scatters out this afternoon, allowing
highs to reach the lower 60s for most of the area.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

There is very little to discuss in the extended forecast. The
strong PV anomaly noted on 26/07z water vapor imagery near the
CA/AZ border is forecast to close off as it slowly progresses
eastward over the next few days, likely passing south of the CWA.
It is possible that the extreme southern CWA could be on the
extreme northern fringe of the precip shield, but confidence is
too low to introduce PoPs attm. There are some model differences
during the middle of the week with respect to a northwest flow
vort max and its interaction with the aforementioned slow-moving
low pressure system, but moisture appears limited across this part
of the country. Even if a vort max does approach the CWA, an
increase in cloud cover seems more likely than precipitation. In
the absence of any large scale air mass exchanges and with a
steady northerly flow component at the surface, temperatures over
the next several days will tend to moderate slowly towards more
seasonable values with day to day variations largely dependent on
the amount of cloud cover. Precip chances increase marginally
towards the end of the week and into the early part of next
weekend.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Band of IFR CIGs will continue to drop south overnight. Assoc -DZ
should also come to an end over the next few hours. Dry NE flow is
expected to push the IFR CIGs south of the terminals early this
mrng leaving a low end VFR CIG deck in place for most of the day.
Model RH indicates the VFR CIGs should clear out drng the late
mrng but based on the existing amount of upstream cloud
cover...think that might be too optimistic...plus there should be a
diurnal component to the clouds as well. Skies should clear out by
Sunday night.

Specifics for KSTL:

-DZ should be coming to an end around 6Z. IFR CIGs are expected to
remain thru the night and slowly raise Sunday mrng becoming VFR by
mid morning as the cloud deck drfts south. Clouds should clear by
tomorrow evng.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 260819
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
319 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

Quiet weather is expected today. Temperatures across the southern
two-thirds of the CWA may be initially slow to warm due to
extensive morning cloud cover, but temperatures ought to rise
quickly after the stratus scatters out this afternoon, allowing
highs to reach the lower 60s for most of the area.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

There is very little to discuss in the extended forecast. The
strong PV anomaly noted on 26/07z water vapor imagery near the
CA/AZ border is forecast to close off as it slowly progresses
eastward over the next few days, likely passing south of the CWA.
It is possible that the extreme southern CWA could be on the
extreme northern fringe of the precip shield, but confidence is
too low to introduce PoPs attm. There are some model differences
during the middle of the week with respect to a northwest flow
vort max and its interaction with the aforementioned slow-moving
low pressure system, but moisture appears limited across this part
of the country. Even if a vort max does approach the CWA, an
increase in cloud cover seems more likely than precipitation. In
the absence of any large scale air mass exchanges and with a
steady northerly flow component at the surface, temperatures over
the next several days will tend to moderate slowly towards more
seasonable values with day to day variations largely dependent on
the amount of cloud cover. Precip chances increase marginally
towards the end of the week and into the early part of next
weekend.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Band of IFR CIGs will continue to drop south overnight. Assoc -DZ
should also come to an end over the next few hours. Dry NE flow is
expected to push the IFR CIGs south of the terminals early this
mrng leaving a low end VFR CIG deck in place for most of the day.
Model RH indicates the VFR CIGs should clear out drng the late
mrng but based on the existing amount of upstream cloud
cover...think that might be too optimistic...plus there should be a
diurnal component to the clouds as well. Skies should clear out by
Sunday night.

Specifics for KSTL:

-DZ should be coming to an end around 6Z. IFR CIGs are expected to
remain thru the night and slowly raise Sunday mrng becoming VFR by
mid morning as the cloud deck drfts south. Clouds should clear by
tomorrow evng.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 260740
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
240 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 236 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

Mild and cloudy conditions are occurring this morning across the
region, as post-frontal stratus builds south into the area. Despite
northerly winds, temperatures have remained rather warm, with 2 AM
readings in the mid 50s in most spots. Temperatures will slowly
fall into the upper 40s and low 50s by daybreak.

Cloud cover will be somewhat slow to clear today, though a
combination of dry air advection and daytime mixing should allow the
stratus to scatter out by mid to late afternoon.  Highs today will
be on the cool side of average, with low 60s for most.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

The next storm system of interest is digging across the
Intermountain West this morning, and will close off across eastern
New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle by tonight. This upper low will
then slowly move across the I-40 corridor through Tuesday.  The
Ozarks look to be on the northern fringe of the precipitation with
this system, with light showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two
possible late Sunday through Tuesday, mainly southwest of a
Pittsberg to Branson line.  Further north an increase in low and
high level cloud cover can be expected, but enough dry air should be
in place in the mid levels to keep any measurable precipitation at
bay. That cloud cover, along with continued east to northeast flow
at the surface, will keep temperatures in the low 60s Monday and
Tuesday.

The upper level pattern will then amplify considerably by the middle
of the week, with very deep troughing across the Mid-Atlantic and
New England, as well as across the Northern Rockies.  In between, a
strong upper level ridge will stretch from the Desert Southwest into
the western Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure should
remain in control across much of the Nation`s midsection through
at least the beginning of next weekend. This should result in dry
and very pleasant conditions through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Pilots can expect IFR ceilings to impact area terminals overnight
into Sunday morning. Ceilings will gradually rise Sunday. A steady
northeast wind will shift to the east on Sunday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Foster






000
FXUS63 KSGF 260740
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
240 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 236 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

Mild and cloudy conditions are occurring this morning across the
region, as post-frontal stratus builds south into the area. Despite
northerly winds, temperatures have remained rather warm, with 2 AM
readings in the mid 50s in most spots. Temperatures will slowly
fall into the upper 40s and low 50s by daybreak.

Cloud cover will be somewhat slow to clear today, though a
combination of dry air advection and daytime mixing should allow the
stratus to scatter out by mid to late afternoon.  Highs today will
be on the cool side of average, with low 60s for most.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

The next storm system of interest is digging across the
Intermountain West this morning, and will close off across eastern
New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle by tonight. This upper low will
then slowly move across the I-40 corridor through Tuesday.  The
Ozarks look to be on the northern fringe of the precipitation with
this system, with light showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two
possible late Sunday through Tuesday, mainly southwest of a
Pittsberg to Branson line.  Further north an increase in low and
high level cloud cover can be expected, but enough dry air should be
in place in the mid levels to keep any measurable precipitation at
bay. That cloud cover, along with continued east to northeast flow
at the surface, will keep temperatures in the low 60s Monday and
Tuesday.

The upper level pattern will then amplify considerably by the middle
of the week, with very deep troughing across the Mid-Atlantic and
New England, as well as across the Northern Rockies.  In between, a
strong upper level ridge will stretch from the Desert Southwest into
the western Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure should
remain in control across much of the Nation`s midsection through
at least the beginning of next weekend. This should result in dry
and very pleasant conditions through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Pilots can expect IFR ceilings to impact area terminals overnight
into Sunday morning. Ceilings will gradually rise Sunday. A steady
northeast wind will shift to the east on Sunday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 260740
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
240 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 236 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

Mild and cloudy conditions are occurring this morning across the
region, as post-frontal stratus builds south into the area. Despite
northerly winds, temperatures have remained rather warm, with 2 AM
readings in the mid 50s in most spots. Temperatures will slowly
fall into the upper 40s and low 50s by daybreak.

Cloud cover will be somewhat slow to clear today, though a
combination of dry air advection and daytime mixing should allow the
stratus to scatter out by mid to late afternoon.  Highs today will
be on the cool side of average, with low 60s for most.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

The next storm system of interest is digging across the
Intermountain West this morning, and will close off across eastern
New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle by tonight. This upper low will
then slowly move across the I-40 corridor through Tuesday.  The
Ozarks look to be on the northern fringe of the precipitation with
this system, with light showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two
possible late Sunday through Tuesday, mainly southwest of a
Pittsberg to Branson line.  Further north an increase in low and
high level cloud cover can be expected, but enough dry air should be
in place in the mid levels to keep any measurable precipitation at
bay. That cloud cover, along with continued east to northeast flow
at the surface, will keep temperatures in the low 60s Monday and
Tuesday.

The upper level pattern will then amplify considerably by the middle
of the week, with very deep troughing across the Mid-Atlantic and
New England, as well as across the Northern Rockies.  In between, a
strong upper level ridge will stretch from the Desert Southwest into
the western Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure should
remain in control across much of the Nation`s midsection through
at least the beginning of next weekend. This should result in dry
and very pleasant conditions through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Pilots can expect IFR ceilings to impact area terminals overnight
into Sunday morning. Ceilings will gradually rise Sunday. A steady
northeast wind will shift to the east on Sunday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Foster






000
FXUS63 KEAX 260509
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1209 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Precipitation should quickly diminish this evening as the upper wave
opens up and then more rapidly shifts east. The loss of diurnal
heating will also aid in the demise of left over shower activity.
Colder air will filter into the area over the next few days which
will result in some chilly mornings to start the new week. Cloud
cover will inhibit better cooling tonight, which will also limit fog
potential. However, clear skies are expected by Monday morning with
temperatures falling into the mid to upper 30s. If winds are lighter
than expected, there may be potential for frost Monday morning due to
better radiational cooling and less mixing.

An upper low will spin through southern Kansas and Oklahoma. This
will bring needed rainfall to those areas but will likely leave our
forecast area dry. So for now have kept PoPs out of our southern
zones. A little shift in the upper low track could bring some
precipitation into the Linn, KS to Bates, MO areas but even this,
being on the northern edges of the low, wouldn`t amount to much. Thus
the only influence this low should have on our weather is increased
cloud cover, mainly over the southern forecast area.

By the middle to later part of the week, ridging over the western
CONUS will begin to spread east into the center of the country.
Increasing heights and thicknesses will help push temperatures back
into the upper 70s. This will also keep the forecast dry through the
extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A mix of LIFR, IFR, and low-end MVFR conditions exist across the
area, and this should continue through mid-morning at terminals.
Areas of drizzle will continue for a few more hours before
diminishing. Ceilings will improve around 15-18Z with skies becoming
mostly clear towards the end of the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KSGF 260445
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1145 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)

An upper level low center was located over northern Missouri this
afternoon, forcing scattered showers over central Missouri.
Locations along and north of a line from Osceola to Salem will
experience the greatest chance at a shower or two this afternoon.

We don`t think sufficient instability will develop for any severe
storms in SGF`s warning area, but will develop toward the
Mississippi River Valley and to the east.

Stratus will spread across the entire Ozarks region tonight and
may hold temperatures up some. Upper 40s to the middle 50s are
expected for overnight lows. With the upper low exiting the
Ozarks, we should remain precipitation free.

For Sunday, look for decent weather for outdoor activities with
temperatures warming into the 60s, under a mix of sun and cloud.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

A large scale trough across the western U.S. will evolve into a
quasi-closed off upper level low. This feature will create some
unsettled weather across the central and southern Plains. This low
may create some rain for the Ozarks, but this is quite uncertain.

The GFS brings sufficient moisture and lift into southwest
Missouri for showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday.
Meanwhile the ECMWF and Canadian solutions confine all
precipitation across Oklahoma and Arkansas.

For now we will remain conservative with our POP forecasts for
Monday and Tuesday, suggesting a mostly dry forecast. Cloud cover
and northeast breezes will keep temperatures below normal, with
highs on the in the 60s both afternoons.

The Wednesday through Saturday period looks fantastic. A slow
moving upper level ridge will move into the nation`s midsection
and provide warm and sunny weather. Temperatures are expected to
trend well into the 70s by Friday and Saturday. No precipitation
chances are needed for the Wednesday through Saturday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Pilots can expect IFR ceilings to impact area terminals overnight
into Sunday morning. Ceilings will gradually rise Sunday. A steady
northeast wind will shift to the east on Sunday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Foster






000
FXUS63 KSGF 260445
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1145 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)

An upper level low center was located over northern Missouri this
afternoon, forcing scattered showers over central Missouri.
Locations along and north of a line from Osceola to Salem will
experience the greatest chance at a shower or two this afternoon.

We don`t think sufficient instability will develop for any severe
storms in SGF`s warning area, but will develop toward the
Mississippi River Valley and to the east.

Stratus will spread across the entire Ozarks region tonight and
may hold temperatures up some. Upper 40s to the middle 50s are
expected for overnight lows. With the upper low exiting the
Ozarks, we should remain precipitation free.

For Sunday, look for decent weather for outdoor activities with
temperatures warming into the 60s, under a mix of sun and cloud.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

A large scale trough across the western U.S. will evolve into a
quasi-closed off upper level low. This feature will create some
unsettled weather across the central and southern Plains. This low
may create some rain for the Ozarks, but this is quite uncertain.

The GFS brings sufficient moisture and lift into southwest
Missouri for showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday.
Meanwhile the ECMWF and Canadian solutions confine all
precipitation across Oklahoma and Arkansas.

For now we will remain conservative with our POP forecasts for
Monday and Tuesday, suggesting a mostly dry forecast. Cloud cover
and northeast breezes will keep temperatures below normal, with
highs on the in the 60s both afternoons.

The Wednesday through Saturday period looks fantastic. A slow
moving upper level ridge will move into the nation`s midsection
and provide warm and sunny weather. Temperatures are expected to
trend well into the 70s by Friday and Saturday. No precipitation
chances are needed for the Wednesday through Saturday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Pilots can expect IFR ceilings to impact area terminals overnight
into Sunday morning. Ceilings will gradually rise Sunday. A steady
northeast wind will shift to the east on Sunday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KLSX 260439
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1139 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

The severe weather threat has failed to materialize thus far due
to what appears to be a lack of robust buoyancy owing to marginal
boundary layer moisture and heating. There is a narrow window and
zone with some limited potential for the next few hours, roughly
immediately south of St. Louis and east of Farmington through
extreme southwest Illinois where the lead surface low and
convergence zone is located. This zone will also close quickly as
the lead low migrates e/se and winds shift to the north and west
behind the low. Showers and some isolated thunder will linger into
the early evening from St. Louis south/east but as alluded to the
severe threat should be over by 23z. High pressure and cooler air
will settle into the region for the remainder of the night with
north-northeast winds. Any precipitation beyond the ongoing should
be isolated-patchy in nature. It appears some clearing of the
stratus will commence across northeast Missouri and west central
IL after 09z as northeast winds advect drier air into the area.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

High pressure will continue to build into the area on Sunday with
north-northeast low level flow. This flow will lead to continued
southwestward clearing of the stratus while cirrus gradually thins
from north to south as well. Present indications are that there
will be a decent amount of afternoon sunshine and this should
allow temperatures to rise into the 60s, resulting in highs a tad
below average for late April.

Deepening of the northeast U.S. vortex and accompanying
positively tilted upper trof will keep a northerly component to
the flow aloft through Tuesday. This will also maintain
surface high pressure as it builds southward through the MS
Valley. An upper low and trof which evolves in the southwest U.S.
over the next 24 hours will then migrate into the Southern Plains
on Tuesday and into the lower MS Valley Tuesday afternoon-night.
The southern track of this upper system along with dry lower
tropospheric east-northeast flow should keep precipitation at bay
to the south of the region, with predominately high clouds Monday
through early Wednesday.

A tranquil and dry pattern will dominate mid week into early next
weekend. The flow aloft will be rather amplified initially with
the trof axis to our east and surface high pressure maintained
into the later part of the week. By the weekend it appears we
should see ridging aloft move into the Nation`s midsection and a
return to southerly low level flow, bringing above normal temps
well into the 70s and pushing 80 in some locations.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Band of IFR CIGs will continue to drop south overnight. Assoc -DZ
should also come to an end over the next few hours. Dry NE flow is
expected to push the IFR CIGs south of the terminals early this
mrng leaving a low end VFR CIG deck in place for most of the day.
Model RH indicates the VFR CIGs should clear out drng the late
mrng but based on the existing amount of upstream cloud
cover...think that might be too optimistic...plus there should be a
diurnal component to the clouds as well. Skies should clear out by
Sunday night.

Specifics for KSTL:

-DZ should be coming to an end around 6Z. IFR CIGs are expected to
remain thru the night and slowly raise Sunday mrng becoming VFR by
mid morning as the cloud deck drfts south. Clouds should clear by
tomorrow evng.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 260439
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1139 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

The severe weather threat has failed to materialize thus far due
to what appears to be a lack of robust buoyancy owing to marginal
boundary layer moisture and heating. There is a narrow window and
zone with some limited potential for the next few hours, roughly
immediately south of St. Louis and east of Farmington through
extreme southwest Illinois where the lead surface low and
convergence zone is located. This zone will also close quickly as
the lead low migrates e/se and winds shift to the north and west
behind the low. Showers and some isolated thunder will linger into
the early evening from St. Louis south/east but as alluded to the
severe threat should be over by 23z. High pressure and cooler air
will settle into the region for the remainder of the night with
north-northeast winds. Any precipitation beyond the ongoing should
be isolated-patchy in nature. It appears some clearing of the
stratus will commence across northeast Missouri and west central
IL after 09z as northeast winds advect drier air into the area.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

High pressure will continue to build into the area on Sunday with
north-northeast low level flow. This flow will lead to continued
southwestward clearing of the stratus while cirrus gradually thins
from north to south as well. Present indications are that there
will be a decent amount of afternoon sunshine and this should
allow temperatures to rise into the 60s, resulting in highs a tad
below average for late April.

Deepening of the northeast U.S. vortex and accompanying
positively tilted upper trof will keep a northerly component to
the flow aloft through Tuesday. This will also maintain
surface high pressure as it builds southward through the MS
Valley. An upper low and trof which evolves in the southwest U.S.
over the next 24 hours will then migrate into the Southern Plains
on Tuesday and into the lower MS Valley Tuesday afternoon-night.
The southern track of this upper system along with dry lower
tropospheric east-northeast flow should keep precipitation at bay
to the south of the region, with predominately high clouds Monday
through early Wednesday.

A tranquil and dry pattern will dominate mid week into early next
weekend. The flow aloft will be rather amplified initially with
the trof axis to our east and surface high pressure maintained
into the later part of the week. By the weekend it appears we
should see ridging aloft move into the Nation`s midsection and a
return to southerly low level flow, bringing above normal temps
well into the 70s and pushing 80 in some locations.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Band of IFR CIGs will continue to drop south overnight. Assoc -DZ
should also come to an end over the next few hours. Dry NE flow is
expected to push the IFR CIGs south of the terminals early this
mrng leaving a low end VFR CIG deck in place for most of the day.
Model RH indicates the VFR CIGs should clear out drng the late
mrng but based on the existing amount of upstream cloud
cover...think that might be too optimistic...plus there should be a
diurnal component to the clouds as well. Skies should clear out by
Sunday night.

Specifics for KSTL:

-DZ should be coming to an end around 6Z. IFR CIGs are expected to
remain thru the night and slowly raise Sunday mrng becoming VFR by
mid morning as the cloud deck drfts south. Clouds should clear by
tomorrow evng.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 260439
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1139 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

The severe weather threat has failed to materialize thus far due
to what appears to be a lack of robust buoyancy owing to marginal
boundary layer moisture and heating. There is a narrow window and
zone with some limited potential for the next few hours, roughly
immediately south of St. Louis and east of Farmington through
extreme southwest Illinois where the lead surface low and
convergence zone is located. This zone will also close quickly as
the lead low migrates e/se and winds shift to the north and west
behind the low. Showers and some isolated thunder will linger into
the early evening from St. Louis south/east but as alluded to the
severe threat should be over by 23z. High pressure and cooler air
will settle into the region for the remainder of the night with
north-northeast winds. Any precipitation beyond the ongoing should
be isolated-patchy in nature. It appears some clearing of the
stratus will commence across northeast Missouri and west central
IL after 09z as northeast winds advect drier air into the area.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

High pressure will continue to build into the area on Sunday with
north-northeast low level flow. This flow will lead to continued
southwestward clearing of the stratus while cirrus gradually thins
from north to south as well. Present indications are that there
will be a decent amount of afternoon sunshine and this should
allow temperatures to rise into the 60s, resulting in highs a tad
below average for late April.

Deepening of the northeast U.S. vortex and accompanying
positively tilted upper trof will keep a northerly component to
the flow aloft through Tuesday. This will also maintain
surface high pressure as it builds southward through the MS
Valley. An upper low and trof which evolves in the southwest U.S.
over the next 24 hours will then migrate into the Southern Plains
on Tuesday and into the lower MS Valley Tuesday afternoon-night.
The southern track of this upper system along with dry lower
tropospheric east-northeast flow should keep precipitation at bay
to the south of the region, with predominately high clouds Monday
through early Wednesday.

A tranquil and dry pattern will dominate mid week into early next
weekend. The flow aloft will be rather amplified initially with
the trof axis to our east and surface high pressure maintained
into the later part of the week. By the weekend it appears we
should see ridging aloft move into the Nation`s midsection and a
return to southerly low level flow, bringing above normal temps
well into the 70s and pushing 80 in some locations.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Band of IFR CIGs will continue to drop south overnight. Assoc -DZ
should also come to an end over the next few hours. Dry NE flow is
expected to push the IFR CIGs south of the terminals early this
mrng leaving a low end VFR CIG deck in place for most of the day.
Model RH indicates the VFR CIGs should clear out drng the late
mrng but based on the existing amount of upstream cloud
cover...think that might be too optimistic...plus there should be a
diurnal component to the clouds as well. Skies should clear out by
Sunday night.

Specifics for KSTL:

-DZ should be coming to an end around 6Z. IFR CIGs are expected to
remain thru the night and slowly raise Sunday mrng becoming VFR by
mid morning as the cloud deck drfts south. Clouds should clear by
tomorrow evng.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 260439
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1139 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

The severe weather threat has failed to materialize thus far due
to what appears to be a lack of robust buoyancy owing to marginal
boundary layer moisture and heating. There is a narrow window and
zone with some limited potential for the next few hours, roughly
immediately south of St. Louis and east of Farmington through
extreme southwest Illinois where the lead surface low and
convergence zone is located. This zone will also close quickly as
the lead low migrates e/se and winds shift to the north and west
behind the low. Showers and some isolated thunder will linger into
the early evening from St. Louis south/east but as alluded to the
severe threat should be over by 23z. High pressure and cooler air
will settle into the region for the remainder of the night with
north-northeast winds. Any precipitation beyond the ongoing should
be isolated-patchy in nature. It appears some clearing of the
stratus will commence across northeast Missouri and west central
IL after 09z as northeast winds advect drier air into the area.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

High pressure will continue to build into the area on Sunday with
north-northeast low level flow. This flow will lead to continued
southwestward clearing of the stratus while cirrus gradually thins
from north to south as well. Present indications are that there
will be a decent amount of afternoon sunshine and this should
allow temperatures to rise into the 60s, resulting in highs a tad
below average for late April.

Deepening of the northeast U.S. vortex and accompanying
positively tilted upper trof will keep a northerly component to
the flow aloft through Tuesday. This will also maintain
surface high pressure as it builds southward through the MS
Valley. An upper low and trof which evolves in the southwest U.S.
over the next 24 hours will then migrate into the Southern Plains
on Tuesday and into the lower MS Valley Tuesday afternoon-night.
The southern track of this upper system along with dry lower
tropospheric east-northeast flow should keep precipitation at bay
to the south of the region, with predominately high clouds Monday
through early Wednesday.

A tranquil and dry pattern will dominate mid week into early next
weekend. The flow aloft will be rather amplified initially with
the trof axis to our east and surface high pressure maintained
into the later part of the week. By the weekend it appears we
should see ridging aloft move into the Nation`s midsection and a
return to southerly low level flow, bringing above normal temps
well into the 70s and pushing 80 in some locations.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Band of IFR CIGs will continue to drop south overnight. Assoc -DZ
should also come to an end over the next few hours. Dry NE flow is
expected to push the IFR CIGs south of the terminals early this
mrng leaving a low end VFR CIG deck in place for most of the day.
Model RH indicates the VFR CIGs should clear out drng the late
mrng but based on the existing amount of upstream cloud
cover...think that might be too optimistic...plus there should be a
diurnal component to the clouds as well. Skies should clear out by
Sunday night.

Specifics for KSTL:

-DZ should be coming to an end around 6Z. IFR CIGs are expected to
remain thru the night and slowly raise Sunday mrng becoming VFR by
mid morning as the cloud deck drfts south. Clouds should clear by
tomorrow evng.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 260001
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
701 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

The severe weather threat has failed to materialize thus far due
to what appears to be a lack of robust buoyancy owing to marginal
boundary layer moisture and heating. There is a narrow window and
zone with some limited potential for the next few hours, roughly
immediately south of St. Louis and east of Farmington through
extreme southwest Illinois where the lead surface low and
convergence zone is located. This zone will also close quickly as
the lead low migrates e/se and winds shift to the north and west
behind the low. Showers and some isolated thunder will linger into
the early evening from St. Louis south/east but as alluded to the
severe threat should be over by 23z. High pressure and cooler air
will settle into the region for the remainder of the night with
north-northeast winds. Any precipitation beyond the ongoing should
be isolated-patchy in nature. It appears some clearing of the
stratus will commence across northeast Missouri and west central
IL after 09z as northeast winds advect drier air into the area.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

High pressure will continue to build into the area on Sunday with
north-northeast low level flow. This flow will lead to continued
southwestward clearing of the stratus while cirrus gradually thins
from north to south as well. Present indications are that there
will be a decent amount of afternoon sunshine and this should
allow temperatures to rise into the 60s, resulting in highs a tad
below average for late April.

Deepening of the northeast U.S. vortex and accompanying
positively tilted upper trof will keep a northerly component to
the flow aloft through Tuesday. This will also maintain
surface high pressure as it builds southward through the MS
Valley. An upper low and trof which evolves in the southwest U.S.
over the next 24 hours will then migrate into the Southern Plains
on Tuesday and into the lower MS Valley Tuesday afternoon-night.
The southern track of this upper system along with dry lower
tropospheric east-northeast flow should keep precipitation at bay
to the south of the region, with predominately high clouds Monday
through early Wednesday.

A tranquil and dry pattern will dominate mid week into early next
weekend. The flow aloft will be rather amplified initially with
the trof axis to our east and surface high pressure maintained
into the later part of the week. By the weekend it appears we
should see ridging aloft move into the Nation`s midsection and a
return to southerly low level flow, bringing above normal temps
well into the 70s and pushing 80 in some locations.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

There is a substantial band of IFR/MVFR CIGS that stretch from
KS/NE thru MO and IL and points east into KY/OH. Existing IFR CIGs
are expected to last most...if not all night. A dry NE low level
flow in the wake of today`s storm system will help dry the lower
levels out and push the band of IFR/MVFR CIGs south Sunday mrng.
Current indications are that the CIGS should push out of all the
terminals...from N to S...in the 10-15Z time frame. Diurnal
cu/strato cu is expected to dvlp drng the mrng but should thin out
some drng the aftn. VFR conditions are fcst for the aftn at all
sites.

Specifics for KSTL:

Terminals should be socked in with IFR CIGs all night long.
Stratus should eroded from the NE tomorrow mrng 12-15Z with low
end VFR diurnal cu/strato cu filling in behind the clearing. This
too should dsspt by evng leaving a VFR fcst overnight with a N/NE
breeze aob 10kts.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 260001
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
701 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

The severe weather threat has failed to materialize thus far due
to what appears to be a lack of robust buoyancy owing to marginal
boundary layer moisture and heating. There is a narrow window and
zone with some limited potential for the next few hours, roughly
immediately south of St. Louis and east of Farmington through
extreme southwest Illinois where the lead surface low and
convergence zone is located. This zone will also close quickly as
the lead low migrates e/se and winds shift to the north and west
behind the low. Showers and some isolated thunder will linger into
the early evening from St. Louis south/east but as alluded to the
severe threat should be over by 23z. High pressure and cooler air
will settle into the region for the remainder of the night with
north-northeast winds. Any precipitation beyond the ongoing should
be isolated-patchy in nature. It appears some clearing of the
stratus will commence across northeast Missouri and west central
IL after 09z as northeast winds advect drier air into the area.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

High pressure will continue to build into the area on Sunday with
north-northeast low level flow. This flow will lead to continued
southwestward clearing of the stratus while cirrus gradually thins
from north to south as well. Present indications are that there
will be a decent amount of afternoon sunshine and this should
allow temperatures to rise into the 60s, resulting in highs a tad
below average for late April.

Deepening of the northeast U.S. vortex and accompanying
positively tilted upper trof will keep a northerly component to
the flow aloft through Tuesday. This will also maintain
surface high pressure as it builds southward through the MS
Valley. An upper low and trof which evolves in the southwest U.S.
over the next 24 hours will then migrate into the Southern Plains
on Tuesday and into the lower MS Valley Tuesday afternoon-night.
The southern track of this upper system along with dry lower
tropospheric east-northeast flow should keep precipitation at bay
to the south of the region, with predominately high clouds Monday
through early Wednesday.

A tranquil and dry pattern will dominate mid week into early next
weekend. The flow aloft will be rather amplified initially with
the trof axis to our east and surface high pressure maintained
into the later part of the week. By the weekend it appears we
should see ridging aloft move into the Nation`s midsection and a
return to southerly low level flow, bringing above normal temps
well into the 70s and pushing 80 in some locations.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

There is a substantial band of IFR/MVFR CIGS that stretch from
KS/NE thru MO and IL and points east into KY/OH. Existing IFR CIGs
are expected to last most...if not all night. A dry NE low level
flow in the wake of today`s storm system will help dry the lower
levels out and push the band of IFR/MVFR CIGs south Sunday mrng.
Current indications are that the CIGS should push out of all the
terminals...from N to S...in the 10-15Z time frame. Diurnal
cu/strato cu is expected to dvlp drng the mrng but should thin out
some drng the aftn. VFR conditions are fcst for the aftn at all
sites.

Specifics for KSTL:

Terminals should be socked in with IFR CIGs all night long.
Stratus should eroded from the NE tomorrow mrng 12-15Z with low
end VFR diurnal cu/strato cu filling in behind the clearing. This
too should dsspt by evng leaving a VFR fcst overnight with a N/NE
breeze aob 10kts.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 260001
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
701 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

The severe weather threat has failed to materialize thus far due
to what appears to be a lack of robust buoyancy owing to marginal
boundary layer moisture and heating. There is a narrow window and
zone with some limited potential for the next few hours, roughly
immediately south of St. Louis and east of Farmington through
extreme southwest Illinois where the lead surface low and
convergence zone is located. This zone will also close quickly as
the lead low migrates e/se and winds shift to the north and west
behind the low. Showers and some isolated thunder will linger into
the early evening from St. Louis south/east but as alluded to the
severe threat should be over by 23z. High pressure and cooler air
will settle into the region for the remainder of the night with
north-northeast winds. Any precipitation beyond the ongoing should
be isolated-patchy in nature. It appears some clearing of the
stratus will commence across northeast Missouri and west central
IL after 09z as northeast winds advect drier air into the area.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

High pressure will continue to build into the area on Sunday with
north-northeast low level flow. This flow will lead to continued
southwestward clearing of the stratus while cirrus gradually thins
from north to south as well. Present indications are that there
will be a decent amount of afternoon sunshine and this should
allow temperatures to rise into the 60s, resulting in highs a tad
below average for late April.

Deepening of the northeast U.S. vortex and accompanying
positively tilted upper trof will keep a northerly component to
the flow aloft through Tuesday. This will also maintain
surface high pressure as it builds southward through the MS
Valley. An upper low and trof which evolves in the southwest U.S.
over the next 24 hours will then migrate into the Southern Plains
on Tuesday and into the lower MS Valley Tuesday afternoon-night.
The southern track of this upper system along with dry lower
tropospheric east-northeast flow should keep precipitation at bay
to the south of the region, with predominately high clouds Monday
through early Wednesday.

A tranquil and dry pattern will dominate mid week into early next
weekend. The flow aloft will be rather amplified initially with
the trof axis to our east and surface high pressure maintained
into the later part of the week. By the weekend it appears we
should see ridging aloft move into the Nation`s midsection and a
return to southerly low level flow, bringing above normal temps
well into the 70s and pushing 80 in some locations.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

There is a substantial band of IFR/MVFR CIGS that stretch from
KS/NE thru MO and IL and points east into KY/OH. Existing IFR CIGs
are expected to last most...if not all night. A dry NE low level
flow in the wake of today`s storm system will help dry the lower
levels out and push the band of IFR/MVFR CIGs south Sunday mrng.
Current indications are that the CIGS should push out of all the
terminals...from N to S...in the 10-15Z time frame. Diurnal
cu/strato cu is expected to dvlp drng the mrng but should thin out
some drng the aftn. VFR conditions are fcst for the aftn at all
sites.

Specifics for KSTL:

Terminals should be socked in with IFR CIGs all night long.
Stratus should eroded from the NE tomorrow mrng 12-15Z with low
end VFR diurnal cu/strato cu filling in behind the clearing. This
too should dsspt by evng leaving a VFR fcst overnight with a N/NE
breeze aob 10kts.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 260001
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
701 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

The severe weather threat has failed to materialize thus far due
to what appears to be a lack of robust buoyancy owing to marginal
boundary layer moisture and heating. There is a narrow window and
zone with some limited potential for the next few hours, roughly
immediately south of St. Louis and east of Farmington through
extreme southwest Illinois where the lead surface low and
convergence zone is located. This zone will also close quickly as
the lead low migrates e/se and winds shift to the north and west
behind the low. Showers and some isolated thunder will linger into
the early evening from St. Louis south/east but as alluded to the
severe threat should be over by 23z. High pressure and cooler air
will settle into the region for the remainder of the night with
north-northeast winds. Any precipitation beyond the ongoing should
be isolated-patchy in nature. It appears some clearing of the
stratus will commence across northeast Missouri and west central
IL after 09z as northeast winds advect drier air into the area.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

High pressure will continue to build into the area on Sunday with
north-northeast low level flow. This flow will lead to continued
southwestward clearing of the stratus while cirrus gradually thins
from north to south as well. Present indications are that there
will be a decent amount of afternoon sunshine and this should
allow temperatures to rise into the 60s, resulting in highs a tad
below average for late April.

Deepening of the northeast U.S. vortex and accompanying
positively tilted upper trof will keep a northerly component to
the flow aloft through Tuesday. This will also maintain
surface high pressure as it builds southward through the MS
Valley. An upper low and trof which evolves in the southwest U.S.
over the next 24 hours will then migrate into the Southern Plains
on Tuesday and into the lower MS Valley Tuesday afternoon-night.
The southern track of this upper system along with dry lower
tropospheric east-northeast flow should keep precipitation at bay
to the south of the region, with predominately high clouds Monday
through early Wednesday.

A tranquil and dry pattern will dominate mid week into early next
weekend. The flow aloft will be rather amplified initially with
the trof axis to our east and surface high pressure maintained
into the later part of the week. By the weekend it appears we
should see ridging aloft move into the Nation`s midsection and a
return to southerly low level flow, bringing above normal temps
well into the 70s and pushing 80 in some locations.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

There is a substantial band of IFR/MVFR CIGS that stretch from
KS/NE thru MO and IL and points east into KY/OH. Existing IFR CIGs
are expected to last most...if not all night. A dry NE low level
flow in the wake of today`s storm system will help dry the lower
levels out and push the band of IFR/MVFR CIGs south Sunday mrng.
Current indications are that the CIGS should push out of all the
terminals...from N to S...in the 10-15Z time frame. Diurnal
cu/strato cu is expected to dvlp drng the mrng but should thin out
some drng the aftn. VFR conditions are fcst for the aftn at all
sites.

Specifics for KSTL:

Terminals should be socked in with IFR CIGs all night long.
Stratus should eroded from the NE tomorrow mrng 12-15Z with low
end VFR diurnal cu/strato cu filling in behind the clearing. This
too should dsspt by evng leaving a VFR fcst overnight with a N/NE
breeze aob 10kts.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 252349
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
649 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)

An upper level low center was located over northern Missouri this
afternoon, forcing scattered showers over central Missouri.
Locations along and north of a line from Osceola to Salem will
experience the greatest chance at a shower or two this afternoon.

We don`t think sufficient instability will develop for any severe
storms in SGF`s warning area, but will develop toward the
Mississippi River Valley and to the east.

Stratus will spread across the entire Ozarks region tonight and
may hold temperatures up some. Upper 40s to the middle 50s are
expected for overnight lows. With the upper low exiting the
Ozarks, we should remain precipitation free.

For Sunday, look for decent weather for outdoor activities with
temperatures warming into the 60s, under a mix of sun and cloud.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

A large scale trough across the western U.S. will evolve into a
quasi-closed off upper level low. This feature will create some
unsettled weather across the central and southern Plains. This low
may create some rain for the Ozarks, but this is quite uncertain.

The GFS brings sufficient moisture and lift into southwest
Missouri for showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday.
Meanwhile the ECMWF and Canadian solutions confine all
precipitation across Oklahoma and Arkansas.

For now we will remain conservative with our POP forecasts for
Monday and Tuesday, suggesting a mostly dry forecast. Cloud cover
and northeast breezes will keep temperatures below normal, with
highs on the in the 60s both afternoons.

The Wednesday through Saturday period looks fantastic. A slow
moving upper level ridge will move into the nation`s midsection
and provide warm and sunny weather. Temperatures are expected to
trend well into the 70s by Friday and Saturday. No precipitation
chances are needed for the Wednesday through Saturday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 649 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: Surface low pressure is pushing
east into southwestern Kentucky early this evening. On the back
side of the low gusty west to northwesterly winds have occurred
this afternoon. These winds will slack off and not be gusty in nature this
evening into Sunday.

Low level clouds are also spreading south across northeastern
Kansas and northwestern Missouri early this evening. These clouds
will continue to spread to the south as the surface low continues
to track off to the southeast. These low level clouds will take a
little time to spread south into the TAF sites with VFR conditions
expected for much of the evening hours.

Overnight ceilings will lower into the MVFR then IFR range as the
low level clouds over spread the area. Light fog may develop also
with the lower ceilings, but the primary reduction in flight
categories will be with ceilings. The low level clouds will occur into
Sunday morning with VFR conditions expected to return by Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Wise






000
FXUS63 KSGF 252349
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
649 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)

An upper level low center was located over northern Missouri this
afternoon, forcing scattered showers over central Missouri.
Locations along and north of a line from Osceola to Salem will
experience the greatest chance at a shower or two this afternoon.

We don`t think sufficient instability will develop for any severe
storms in SGF`s warning area, but will develop toward the
Mississippi River Valley and to the east.

Stratus will spread across the entire Ozarks region tonight and
may hold temperatures up some. Upper 40s to the middle 50s are
expected for overnight lows. With the upper low exiting the
Ozarks, we should remain precipitation free.

For Sunday, look for decent weather for outdoor activities with
temperatures warming into the 60s, under a mix of sun and cloud.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

A large scale trough across the western U.S. will evolve into a
quasi-closed off upper level low. This feature will create some
unsettled weather across the central and southern Plains. This low
may create some rain for the Ozarks, but this is quite uncertain.

The GFS brings sufficient moisture and lift into southwest
Missouri for showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday.
Meanwhile the ECMWF and Canadian solutions confine all
precipitation across Oklahoma and Arkansas.

For now we will remain conservative with our POP forecasts for
Monday and Tuesday, suggesting a mostly dry forecast. Cloud cover
and northeast breezes will keep temperatures below normal, with
highs on the in the 60s both afternoons.

The Wednesday through Saturday period looks fantastic. A slow
moving upper level ridge will move into the nation`s midsection
and provide warm and sunny weather. Temperatures are expected to
trend well into the 70s by Friday and Saturday. No precipitation
chances are needed for the Wednesday through Saturday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 649 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: Surface low pressure is pushing
east into southwestern Kentucky early this evening. On the back
side of the low gusty west to northwesterly winds have occurred
this afternoon. These winds will slack off and not be gusty in nature this
evening into Sunday.

Low level clouds are also spreading south across northeastern
Kansas and northwestern Missouri early this evening. These clouds
will continue to spread to the south as the surface low continues
to track off to the southeast. These low level clouds will take a
little time to spread south into the TAF sites with VFR conditions
expected for much of the evening hours.

Overnight ceilings will lower into the MVFR then IFR range as the
low level clouds over spread the area. Light fog may develop also
with the lower ceilings, but the primary reduction in flight
categories will be with ceilings. The low level clouds will occur into
Sunday morning with VFR conditions expected to return by Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Wise






000
FXUS63 KSGF 252349
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
649 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)

An upper level low center was located over northern Missouri this
afternoon, forcing scattered showers over central Missouri.
Locations along and north of a line from Osceola to Salem will
experience the greatest chance at a shower or two this afternoon.

We don`t think sufficient instability will develop for any severe
storms in SGF`s warning area, but will develop toward the
Mississippi River Valley and to the east.

Stratus will spread across the entire Ozarks region tonight and
may hold temperatures up some. Upper 40s to the middle 50s are
expected for overnight lows. With the upper low exiting the
Ozarks, we should remain precipitation free.

For Sunday, look for decent weather for outdoor activities with
temperatures warming into the 60s, under a mix of sun and cloud.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

A large scale trough across the western U.S. will evolve into a
quasi-closed off upper level low. This feature will create some
unsettled weather across the central and southern Plains. This low
may create some rain for the Ozarks, but this is quite uncertain.

The GFS brings sufficient moisture and lift into southwest
Missouri for showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday.
Meanwhile the ECMWF and Canadian solutions confine all
precipitation across Oklahoma and Arkansas.

For now we will remain conservative with our POP forecasts for
Monday and Tuesday, suggesting a mostly dry forecast. Cloud cover
and northeast breezes will keep temperatures below normal, with
highs on the in the 60s both afternoons.

The Wednesday through Saturday period looks fantastic. A slow
moving upper level ridge will move into the nation`s midsection
and provide warm and sunny weather. Temperatures are expected to
trend well into the 70s by Friday and Saturday. No precipitation
chances are needed for the Wednesday through Saturday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 649 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: Surface low pressure is pushing
east into southwestern Kentucky early this evening. On the back
side of the low gusty west to northwesterly winds have occurred
this afternoon. These winds will slack off and not be gusty in nature this
evening into Sunday.

Low level clouds are also spreading south across northeastern
Kansas and northwestern Missouri early this evening. These clouds
will continue to spread to the south as the surface low continues
to track off to the southeast. These low level clouds will take a
little time to spread south into the TAF sites with VFR conditions
expected for much of the evening hours.

Overnight ceilings will lower into the MVFR then IFR range as the
low level clouds over spread the area. Light fog may develop also
with the lower ceilings, but the primary reduction in flight
categories will be with ceilings. The low level clouds will occur into
Sunday morning with VFR conditions expected to return by Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Wise






000
FXUS63 KSGF 252349
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
649 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)

An upper level low center was located over northern Missouri this
afternoon, forcing scattered showers over central Missouri.
Locations along and north of a line from Osceola to Salem will
experience the greatest chance at a shower or two this afternoon.

We don`t think sufficient instability will develop for any severe
storms in SGF`s warning area, but will develop toward the
Mississippi River Valley and to the east.

Stratus will spread across the entire Ozarks region tonight and
may hold temperatures up some. Upper 40s to the middle 50s are
expected for overnight lows. With the upper low exiting the
Ozarks, we should remain precipitation free.

For Sunday, look for decent weather for outdoor activities with
temperatures warming into the 60s, under a mix of sun and cloud.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

A large scale trough across the western U.S. will evolve into a
quasi-closed off upper level low. This feature will create some
unsettled weather across the central and southern Plains. This low
may create some rain for the Ozarks, but this is quite uncertain.

The GFS brings sufficient moisture and lift into southwest
Missouri for showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday.
Meanwhile the ECMWF and Canadian solutions confine all
precipitation across Oklahoma and Arkansas.

For now we will remain conservative with our POP forecasts for
Monday and Tuesday, suggesting a mostly dry forecast. Cloud cover
and northeast breezes will keep temperatures below normal, with
highs on the in the 60s both afternoons.

The Wednesday through Saturday period looks fantastic. A slow
moving upper level ridge will move into the nation`s midsection
and provide warm and sunny weather. Temperatures are expected to
trend well into the 70s by Friday and Saturday. No precipitation
chances are needed for the Wednesday through Saturday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 649 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: Surface low pressure is pushing
east into southwestern Kentucky early this evening. On the back
side of the low gusty west to northwesterly winds have occurred
this afternoon. These winds will slack off and not be gusty in nature this
evening into Sunday.

Low level clouds are also spreading south across northeastern
Kansas and northwestern Missouri early this evening. These clouds
will continue to spread to the south as the surface low continues
to track off to the southeast. These low level clouds will take a
little time to spread south into the TAF sites with VFR conditions
expected for much of the evening hours.

Overnight ceilings will lower into the MVFR then IFR range as the
low level clouds over spread the area. Light fog may develop also
with the lower ceilings, but the primary reduction in flight
categories will be with ceilings. The low level clouds will occur into
Sunday morning with VFR conditions expected to return by Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Wise






000
FXUS63 KSGF 252349
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
649 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)

An upper level low center was located over northern Missouri this
afternoon, forcing scattered showers over central Missouri.
Locations along and north of a line from Osceola to Salem will
experience the greatest chance at a shower or two this afternoon.

We don`t think sufficient instability will develop for any severe
storms in SGF`s warning area, but will develop toward the
Mississippi River Valley and to the east.

Stratus will spread across the entire Ozarks region tonight and
may hold temperatures up some. Upper 40s to the middle 50s are
expected for overnight lows. With the upper low exiting the
Ozarks, we should remain precipitation free.

For Sunday, look for decent weather for outdoor activities with
temperatures warming into the 60s, under a mix of sun and cloud.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

A large scale trough across the western U.S. will evolve into a
quasi-closed off upper level low. This feature will create some
unsettled weather across the central and southern Plains. This low
may create some rain for the Ozarks, but this is quite uncertain.

The GFS brings sufficient moisture and lift into southwest
Missouri for showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday.
Meanwhile the ECMWF and Canadian solutions confine all
precipitation across Oklahoma and Arkansas.

For now we will remain conservative with our POP forecasts for
Monday and Tuesday, suggesting a mostly dry forecast. Cloud cover
and northeast breezes will keep temperatures below normal, with
highs on the in the 60s both afternoons.

The Wednesday through Saturday period looks fantastic. A slow
moving upper level ridge will move into the nation`s midsection
and provide warm and sunny weather. Temperatures are expected to
trend well into the 70s by Friday and Saturday. No precipitation
chances are needed for the Wednesday through Saturday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 649 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: Surface low pressure is pushing
east into southwestern Kentucky early this evening. On the back
side of the low gusty west to northwesterly winds have occurred
this afternoon. These winds will slack off and not be gusty in nature this
evening into Sunday.

Low level clouds are also spreading south across northeastern
Kansas and northwestern Missouri early this evening. These clouds
will continue to spread to the south as the surface low continues
to track off to the southeast. These low level clouds will take a
little time to spread south into the TAF sites with VFR conditions
expected for much of the evening hours.

Overnight ceilings will lower into the MVFR then IFR range as the
low level clouds over spread the area. Light fog may develop also
with the lower ceilings, but the primary reduction in flight
categories will be with ceilings. The low level clouds will occur into
Sunday morning with VFR conditions expected to return by Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 252349
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
649 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)

An upper level low center was located over northern Missouri this
afternoon, forcing scattered showers over central Missouri.
Locations along and north of a line from Osceola to Salem will
experience the greatest chance at a shower or two this afternoon.

We don`t think sufficient instability will develop for any severe
storms in SGF`s warning area, but will develop toward the
Mississippi River Valley and to the east.

Stratus will spread across the entire Ozarks region tonight and
may hold temperatures up some. Upper 40s to the middle 50s are
expected for overnight lows. With the upper low exiting the
Ozarks, we should remain precipitation free.

For Sunday, look for decent weather for outdoor activities with
temperatures warming into the 60s, under a mix of sun and cloud.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

A large scale trough across the western U.S. will evolve into a
quasi-closed off upper level low. This feature will create some
unsettled weather across the central and southern Plains. This low
may create some rain for the Ozarks, but this is quite uncertain.

The GFS brings sufficient moisture and lift into southwest
Missouri for showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday.
Meanwhile the ECMWF and Canadian solutions confine all
precipitation across Oklahoma and Arkansas.

For now we will remain conservative with our POP forecasts for
Monday and Tuesday, suggesting a mostly dry forecast. Cloud cover
and northeast breezes will keep temperatures below normal, with
highs on the in the 60s both afternoons.

The Wednesday through Saturday period looks fantastic. A slow
moving upper level ridge will move into the nation`s midsection
and provide warm and sunny weather. Temperatures are expected to
trend well into the 70s by Friday and Saturday. No precipitation
chances are needed for the Wednesday through Saturday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 649 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: Surface low pressure is pushing
east into southwestern Kentucky early this evening. On the back
side of the low gusty west to northwesterly winds have occurred
this afternoon. These winds will slack off and not be gusty in nature this
evening into Sunday.

Low level clouds are also spreading south across northeastern
Kansas and northwestern Missouri early this evening. These clouds
will continue to spread to the south as the surface low continues
to track off to the southeast. These low level clouds will take a
little time to spread south into the TAF sites with VFR conditions
expected for much of the evening hours.

Overnight ceilings will lower into the MVFR then IFR range as the
low level clouds over spread the area. Light fog may develop also
with the lower ceilings, but the primary reduction in flight
categories will be with ceilings. The low level clouds will occur into
Sunday morning with VFR conditions expected to return by Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Wise






000
FXUS63 KEAX 252324
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
624 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Precipitation should quickly diminish this evening as the upper wave
opens up and then more rapidly shifts east. The loss of diurnal
heating will also aid in the demise of left over shower activity.
Colder air will filter into the area over the next few days which
will result in some chilly mornings to start the new week. Cloud
cover will inhibit better cooling tonight, which will also limit fog
potential. However, clear skies are expected by Monday morning with
temperatures falling into the mid to upper 30s. If winds are lighter
than expected, there may be potential for frost Monday morning due to
better radiational cooling and less mixing.

An upper low will spin through southern Kansas and Oklahoma. This
will bring needed rainfall to those areas but will likely leave our
forecast area dry. So for now have kept PoPs out of our southern
zones. A little shift in the upper low track could bring some
precipitation into the Linn, KS to Bates, MO areas but even this,
being on the northern edges of the low, wouldn`t amount to much. Thus
the only influence this low should have on our weather is increased
cloud cover, mainly over the southern forecast area.

By the middle to later part of the week, ridging over the western
CONUS will begin to spread east into the center of the country.
Increasing heights and thicknesses will help push temperatures back
into the upper 70s. This will also keep the forecast dry through the
extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR to low-end MVFR conditions expected to continue through
mid-morning at terminals. Areas of drizzle should gradually diminish
over the next few hours. Ceilings will improve around 15-18Z with
skies becoming mostly clear shortly after the end of the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 252324
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
624 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Precipitation should quickly diminish this evening as the upper wave
opens up and then more rapidly shifts east. The loss of diurnal
heating will also aid in the demise of left over shower activity.
Colder air will filter into the area over the next few days which
will result in some chilly mornings to start the new week. Cloud
cover will inhibit better cooling tonight, which will also limit fog
potential. However, clear skies are expected by Monday morning with
temperatures falling into the mid to upper 30s. If winds are lighter
than expected, there may be potential for frost Monday morning due to
better radiational cooling and less mixing.

An upper low will spin through southern Kansas and Oklahoma. This
will bring needed rainfall to those areas but will likely leave our
forecast area dry. So for now have kept PoPs out of our southern
zones. A little shift in the upper low track could bring some
precipitation into the Linn, KS to Bates, MO areas but even this,
being on the northern edges of the low, wouldn`t amount to much. Thus
the only influence this low should have on our weather is increased
cloud cover, mainly over the southern forecast area.

By the middle to later part of the week, ridging over the western
CONUS will begin to spread east into the center of the country.
Increasing heights and thicknesses will help push temperatures back
into the upper 70s. This will also keep the forecast dry through the
extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR to low-end MVFR conditions expected to continue through
mid-morning at terminals. Areas of drizzle should gradually diminish
over the next few hours. Ceilings will improve around 15-18Z with
skies becoming mostly clear shortly after the end of the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Blair






000
FXUS63 KEAX 252324
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
624 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Precipitation should quickly diminish this evening as the upper wave
opens up and then more rapidly shifts east. The loss of diurnal
heating will also aid in the demise of left over shower activity.
Colder air will filter into the area over the next few days which
will result in some chilly mornings to start the new week. Cloud
cover will inhibit better cooling tonight, which will also limit fog
potential. However, clear skies are expected by Monday morning with
temperatures falling into the mid to upper 30s. If winds are lighter
than expected, there may be potential for frost Monday morning due to
better radiational cooling and less mixing.

An upper low will spin through southern Kansas and Oklahoma. This
will bring needed rainfall to those areas but will likely leave our
forecast area dry. So for now have kept PoPs out of our southern
zones. A little shift in the upper low track could bring some
precipitation into the Linn, KS to Bates, MO areas but even this,
being on the northern edges of the low, wouldn`t amount to much. Thus
the only influence this low should have on our weather is increased
cloud cover, mainly over the southern forecast area.

By the middle to later part of the week, ridging over the western
CONUS will begin to spread east into the center of the country.
Increasing heights and thicknesses will help push temperatures back
into the upper 70s. This will also keep the forecast dry through the
extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR to low-end MVFR conditions expected to continue through
mid-morning at terminals. Areas of drizzle should gradually diminish
over the next few hours. Ceilings will improve around 15-18Z with
skies becoming mostly clear shortly after the end of the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Blair






000
FXUS63 KEAX 252324
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
624 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Precipitation should quickly diminish this evening as the upper wave
opens up and then more rapidly shifts east. The loss of diurnal
heating will also aid in the demise of left over shower activity.
Colder air will filter into the area over the next few days which
will result in some chilly mornings to start the new week. Cloud
cover will inhibit better cooling tonight, which will also limit fog
potential. However, clear skies are expected by Monday morning with
temperatures falling into the mid to upper 30s. If winds are lighter
than expected, there may be potential for frost Monday morning due to
better radiational cooling and less mixing.

An upper low will spin through southern Kansas and Oklahoma. This
will bring needed rainfall to those areas but will likely leave our
forecast area dry. So for now have kept PoPs out of our southern
zones. A little shift in the upper low track could bring some
precipitation into the Linn, KS to Bates, MO areas but even this,
being on the northern edges of the low, wouldn`t amount to much. Thus
the only influence this low should have on our weather is increased
cloud cover, mainly over the southern forecast area.

By the middle to later part of the week, ridging over the western
CONUS will begin to spread east into the center of the country.
Increasing heights and thicknesses will help push temperatures back
into the upper 70s. This will also keep the forecast dry through the
extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR to low-end MVFR conditions expected to continue through
mid-morning at terminals. Areas of drizzle should gradually diminish
over the next few hours. Ceilings will improve around 15-18Z with
skies becoming mostly clear shortly after the end of the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KLSX 252049
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
349 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

The severe weather threat has failed to materialize thus far due
to what appears to be a lack of robust buoyancy owing to marginal
boundary layer moisture and heating. There is a narrow window and
zone with some limited potential for the next few hours, roughly
immediately south of St. Louis and east of Farmington through
extreme southwest Illinois where the lead surface low and
convergence zone is located. This zone will also close quickly as
the lead low migrates e/se and winds shift to the north and west
behind the low. Showers and some isolated thunder will linger into
the early evening from St. Louis south/east but as alluded to the
severe threat should be over by 23z. High pressure and cooler air
will settle into the region for the remainder of the night with
north-northeast winds. Any precipitation beyond the ongoing should
be isolated-patchy in nature. It appears some clearing of the
stratus will commence across northeast Missouri and west central
IL after 09z as northeast winds advect drier air into the area.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

High pressure will continue to build into the area on Sunday with
north-northeast low level flow. This flow will lead to continued
southwestward clearing of the stratus while cirrus gradually thins
from north to south as well. Present indications are that there
will be a decent amount of afternoon sunshine and this should
allow temperatures to rise into the 60s, resulting in highs a tad
below average for late April.

Deepening of the northeast U.S. vortex and accompanying
positively tilted upper trof will keep a northerly component to
the flow aloft through Tuesday. This will also maintain
surface high pressure as it builds southward through the MS
Valley. An upper low and trof which evolves in the southwest U.S.
over the next 24 hours will then migrate into the Southern Plains
on Tuesday and into the lower MS Valley Tuesday afternoon-night.
The southern track of this upper system along with dry lower
tropospheric east-northeast flow should keep precipitation at bay
to the south of the region, with predominately high clouds Monday
through early Wednesday.

A tranquil and dry pattern will dominate mid week into early next
weekend. The flow aloft will be rather amplified initially with
the trof axis to our east and surface high pressure maintained
into the later part of the week. By the weekend it appears we
should see ridging aloft move into the Nation`s midsection and a
return to southerly low level flow, bringing above normal temps
well into the 70s and pushing 80 in some locations.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Quick aviation update as storms are developing on radar attm.
Generally expect coverage in rain and IFR to increase and move
south across the area this afternoon into tonight. Strongest
thunderstorm activity expected along and south of the I-70
corridor into early evening. Thunderstorms should taper off into
general showers and IFR ceilings. Rain will end through the mid-
late evening but IFR will persist into Sunday morning.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 252049
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
349 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

The severe weather threat has failed to materialize thus far due
to what appears to be a lack of robust buoyancy owing to marginal
boundary layer moisture and heating. There is a narrow window and
zone with some limited potential for the next few hours, roughly
immediately south of St. Louis and east of Farmington through
extreme southwest Illinois where the lead surface low and
convergence zone is located. This zone will also close quickly as
the lead low migrates e/se and winds shift to the north and west
behind the low. Showers and some isolated thunder will linger into
the early evening from St. Louis south/east but as alluded to the
severe threat should be over by 23z. High pressure and cooler air
will settle into the region for the remainder of the night with
north-northeast winds. Any precipitation beyond the ongoing should
be isolated-patchy in nature. It appears some clearing of the
stratus will commence across northeast Missouri and west central
IL after 09z as northeast winds advect drier air into the area.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

High pressure will continue to build into the area on Sunday with
north-northeast low level flow. This flow will lead to continued
southwestward clearing of the stratus while cirrus gradually thins
from north to south as well. Present indications are that there
will be a decent amount of afternoon sunshine and this should
allow temperatures to rise into the 60s, resulting in highs a tad
below average for late April.

Deepening of the northeast U.S. vortex and accompanying
positively tilted upper trof will keep a northerly component to
the flow aloft through Tuesday. This will also maintain
surface high pressure as it builds southward through the MS
Valley. An upper low and trof which evolves in the southwest U.S.
over the next 24 hours will then migrate into the Southern Plains
on Tuesday and into the lower MS Valley Tuesday afternoon-night.
The southern track of this upper system along with dry lower
tropospheric east-northeast flow should keep precipitation at bay
to the south of the region, with predominately high clouds Monday
through early Wednesday.

A tranquil and dry pattern will dominate mid week into early next
weekend. The flow aloft will be rather amplified initially with
the trof axis to our east and surface high pressure maintained
into the later part of the week. By the weekend it appears we
should see ridging aloft move into the Nation`s midsection and a
return to southerly low level flow, bringing above normal temps
well into the 70s and pushing 80 in some locations.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Quick aviation update as storms are developing on radar attm.
Generally expect coverage in rain and IFR to increase and move
south across the area this afternoon into tonight. Strongest
thunderstorm activity expected along and south of the I-70
corridor into early evening. Thunderstorms should taper off into
general showers and IFR ceilings. Rain will end through the mid-
late evening but IFR will persist into Sunday morning.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 252049
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
349 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

The severe weather threat has failed to materialize thus far due
to what appears to be a lack of robust buoyancy owing to marginal
boundary layer moisture and heating. There is a narrow window and
zone with some limited potential for the next few hours, roughly
immediately south of St. Louis and east of Farmington through
extreme southwest Illinois where the lead surface low and
convergence zone is located. This zone will also close quickly as
the lead low migrates e/se and winds shift to the north and west
behind the low. Showers and some isolated thunder will linger into
the early evening from St. Louis south/east but as alluded to the
severe threat should be over by 23z. High pressure and cooler air
will settle into the region for the remainder of the night with
north-northeast winds. Any precipitation beyond the ongoing should
be isolated-patchy in nature. It appears some clearing of the
stratus will commence across northeast Missouri and west central
IL after 09z as northeast winds advect drier air into the area.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

High pressure will continue to build into the area on Sunday with
north-northeast low level flow. This flow will lead to continued
southwestward clearing of the stratus while cirrus gradually thins
from north to south as well. Present indications are that there
will be a decent amount of afternoon sunshine and this should
allow temperatures to rise into the 60s, resulting in highs a tad
below average for late April.

Deepening of the northeast U.S. vortex and accompanying
positively tilted upper trof will keep a northerly component to
the flow aloft through Tuesday. This will also maintain
surface high pressure as it builds southward through the MS
Valley. An upper low and trof which evolves in the southwest U.S.
over the next 24 hours will then migrate into the Southern Plains
on Tuesday and into the lower MS Valley Tuesday afternoon-night.
The southern track of this upper system along with dry lower
tropospheric east-northeast flow should keep precipitation at bay
to the south of the region, with predominately high clouds Monday
through early Wednesday.

A tranquil and dry pattern will dominate mid week into early next
weekend. The flow aloft will be rather amplified initially with
the trof axis to our east and surface high pressure maintained
into the later part of the week. By the weekend it appears we
should see ridging aloft move into the Nation`s midsection and a
return to southerly low level flow, bringing above normal temps
well into the 70s and pushing 80 in some locations.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Quick aviation update as storms are developing on radar attm.
Generally expect coverage in rain and IFR to increase and move
south across the area this afternoon into tonight. Strongest
thunderstorm activity expected along and south of the I-70
corridor into early evening. Thunderstorms should taper off into
general showers and IFR ceilings. Rain will end through the mid-
late evening but IFR will persist into Sunday morning.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 252049
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
349 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

The severe weather threat has failed to materialize thus far due
to what appears to be a lack of robust buoyancy owing to marginal
boundary layer moisture and heating. There is a narrow window and
zone with some limited potential for the next few hours, roughly
immediately south of St. Louis and east of Farmington through
extreme southwest Illinois where the lead surface low and
convergence zone is located. This zone will also close quickly as
the lead low migrates e/se and winds shift to the north and west
behind the low. Showers and some isolated thunder will linger into
the early evening from St. Louis south/east but as alluded to the
severe threat should be over by 23z. High pressure and cooler air
will settle into the region for the remainder of the night with
north-northeast winds. Any precipitation beyond the ongoing should
be isolated-patchy in nature. It appears some clearing of the
stratus will commence across northeast Missouri and west central
IL after 09z as northeast winds advect drier air into the area.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

High pressure will continue to build into the area on Sunday with
north-northeast low level flow. This flow will lead to continued
southwestward clearing of the stratus while cirrus gradually thins
from north to south as well. Present indications are that there
will be a decent amount of afternoon sunshine and this should
allow temperatures to rise into the 60s, resulting in highs a tad
below average for late April.

Deepening of the northeast U.S. vortex and accompanying
positively tilted upper trof will keep a northerly component to
the flow aloft through Tuesday. This will also maintain
surface high pressure as it builds southward through the MS
Valley. An upper low and trof which evolves in the southwest U.S.
over the next 24 hours will then migrate into the Southern Plains
on Tuesday and into the lower MS Valley Tuesday afternoon-night.
The southern track of this upper system along with dry lower
tropospheric east-northeast flow should keep precipitation at bay
to the south of the region, with predominately high clouds Monday
through early Wednesday.

A tranquil and dry pattern will dominate mid week into early next
weekend. The flow aloft will be rather amplified initially with
the trof axis to our east and surface high pressure maintained
into the later part of the week. By the weekend it appears we
should see ridging aloft move into the Nation`s midsection and a
return to southerly low level flow, bringing above normal temps
well into the 70s and pushing 80 in some locations.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Quick aviation update as storms are developing on radar attm.
Generally expect coverage in rain and IFR to increase and move
south across the area this afternoon into tonight. Strongest
thunderstorm activity expected along and south of the I-70
corridor into early evening. Thunderstorms should taper off into
general showers and IFR ceilings. Rain will end through the mid-
late evening but IFR will persist into Sunday morning.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 252033
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
333 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

The severe weather threat has failed to materialize thus far due
to what appears to be a lack of robust buoyancy owing to marginal
boundary layer moisture and heating. There is a narrow window and
zone with some limited potential for the next few hours, roughly
immediately south of St. Louis and east of Farmington through
extreme southwest Illinois where the lead surface low and
convergence zone is located. This zone will also close quickly as
the lead low migrates e/se and winds shift to the north and west
behind the low. Showers and some isolated thunder will linger into
the early evening from St. Louis south/east but as alluded to the
severe threat should be over by 23z. High pressure and cooler air
will settle into the region for the remainder of the night with
north-northeast winds. Any precipitation beyond the ongoing should
be isolated-patchy in nature. It appears some clearing of the
stratus will commence across northeast Missouri and west central
IL after 09z as northeast winds advect drier air into the area.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Temporarily delayed

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Quick aviation update as storms are developing on radar attm.
Generally expect coverage in rain and IFR to increase and move
south across the area this afternoon into tonight. Strongest
thunderstorm activity expected along and south of the I-70
corridor into early evening. Thunderstorms should taper off into
general showers and IFR ceilings. Rain will end through the mid-
late evening but IFR will persist into Sunday morning.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 252033
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
333 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

The severe weather threat has failed to materialize thus far due
to what appears to be a lack of robust buoyancy owing to marginal
boundary layer moisture and heating. There is a narrow window and
zone with some limited potential for the next few hours, roughly
immediately south of St. Louis and east of Farmington through
extreme southwest Illinois where the lead surface low and
convergence zone is located. This zone will also close quickly as
the lead low migrates e/se and winds shift to the north and west
behind the low. Showers and some isolated thunder will linger into
the early evening from St. Louis south/east but as alluded to the
severe threat should be over by 23z. High pressure and cooler air
will settle into the region for the remainder of the night with
north-northeast winds. Any precipitation beyond the ongoing should
be isolated-patchy in nature. It appears some clearing of the
stratus will commence across northeast Missouri and west central
IL after 09z as northeast winds advect drier air into the area.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Temporarily delayed

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Quick aviation update as storms are developing on radar attm.
Generally expect coverage in rain and IFR to increase and move
south across the area this afternoon into tonight. Strongest
thunderstorm activity expected along and south of the I-70
corridor into early evening. Thunderstorms should taper off into
general showers and IFR ceilings. Rain will end through the mid-
late evening but IFR will persist into Sunday morning.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 252033
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
333 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

The severe weather threat has failed to materialize thus far due
to what appears to be a lack of robust buoyancy owing to marginal
boundary layer moisture and heating. There is a narrow window and
zone with some limited potential for the next few hours, roughly
immediately south of St. Louis and east of Farmington through
extreme southwest Illinois where the lead surface low and
convergence zone is located. This zone will also close quickly as
the lead low migrates e/se and winds shift to the north and west
behind the low. Showers and some isolated thunder will linger into
the early evening from St. Louis south/east but as alluded to the
severe threat should be over by 23z. High pressure and cooler air
will settle into the region for the remainder of the night with
north-northeast winds. Any precipitation beyond the ongoing should
be isolated-patchy in nature. It appears some clearing of the
stratus will commence across northeast Missouri and west central
IL after 09z as northeast winds advect drier air into the area.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Temporarily delayed

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Quick aviation update as storms are developing on radar attm.
Generally expect coverage in rain and IFR to increase and move
south across the area this afternoon into tonight. Strongest
thunderstorm activity expected along and south of the I-70
corridor into early evening. Thunderstorms should taper off into
general showers and IFR ceilings. Rain will end through the mid-
late evening but IFR will persist into Sunday morning.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 252033
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
333 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

The severe weather threat has failed to materialize thus far due
to what appears to be a lack of robust buoyancy owing to marginal
boundary layer moisture and heating. There is a narrow window and
zone with some limited potential for the next few hours, roughly
immediately south of St. Louis and east of Farmington through
extreme southwest Illinois where the lead surface low and
convergence zone is located. This zone will also close quickly as
the lead low migrates e/se and winds shift to the north and west
behind the low. Showers and some isolated thunder will linger into
the early evening from St. Louis south/east but as alluded to the
severe threat should be over by 23z. High pressure and cooler air
will settle into the region for the remainder of the night with
north-northeast winds. Any precipitation beyond the ongoing should
be isolated-patchy in nature. It appears some clearing of the
stratus will commence across northeast Missouri and west central
IL after 09z as northeast winds advect drier air into the area.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Temporarily delayed

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Quick aviation update as storms are developing on radar attm.
Generally expect coverage in rain and IFR to increase and move
south across the area this afternoon into tonight. Strongest
thunderstorm activity expected along and south of the I-70
corridor into early evening. Thunderstorms should taper off into
general showers and IFR ceilings. Rain will end through the mid-
late evening but IFR will persist into Sunday morning.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 252033
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
333 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

The severe weather threat has failed to materialize thus far due
to what appears to be a lack of robust buoyancy owing to marginal
boundary layer moisture and heating. There is a narrow window and
zone with some limited potential for the next few hours, roughly
immediately south of St. Louis and east of Farmington through
extreme southwest Illinois where the lead surface low and
convergence zone is located. This zone will also close quickly as
the lead low migrates e/se and winds shift to the north and west
behind the low. Showers and some isolated thunder will linger into
the early evening from St. Louis south/east but as alluded to the
severe threat should be over by 23z. High pressure and cooler air
will settle into the region for the remainder of the night with
north-northeast winds. Any precipitation beyond the ongoing should
be isolated-patchy in nature. It appears some clearing of the
stratus will commence across northeast Missouri and west central
IL after 09z as northeast winds advect drier air into the area.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Temporarily delayed

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Quick aviation update as storms are developing on radar attm.
Generally expect coverage in rain and IFR to increase and move
south across the area this afternoon into tonight. Strongest
thunderstorm activity expected along and south of the I-70
corridor into early evening. Thunderstorms should taper off into
general showers and IFR ceilings. Rain will end through the mid-
late evening but IFR will persist into Sunday morning.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 252033
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
333 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

The severe weather threat has failed to materialize thus far due
to what appears to be a lack of robust buoyancy owing to marginal
boundary layer moisture and heating. There is a narrow window and
zone with some limited potential for the next few hours, roughly
immediately south of St. Louis and east of Farmington through
extreme southwest Illinois where the lead surface low and
convergence zone is located. This zone will also close quickly as
the lead low migrates e/se and winds shift to the north and west
behind the low. Showers and some isolated thunder will linger into
the early evening from St. Louis south/east but as alluded to the
severe threat should be over by 23z. High pressure and cooler air
will settle into the region for the remainder of the night with
north-northeast winds. Any precipitation beyond the ongoing should
be isolated-patchy in nature. It appears some clearing of the
stratus will commence across northeast Missouri and west central
IL after 09z as northeast winds advect drier air into the area.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Temporarily delayed

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Quick aviation update as storms are developing on radar attm.
Generally expect coverage in rain and IFR to increase and move
south across the area this afternoon into tonight. Strongest
thunderstorm activity expected along and south of the I-70
corridor into early evening. Thunderstorms should taper off into
general showers and IFR ceilings. Rain will end through the mid-
late evening but IFR will persist into Sunday morning.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 252000
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
300 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Precipitation should quickly diminish this evening as the upper wave
opens up and then more rapidly shifts east. The loss of diurnal
heating will also aid in the demise of left over shower activity.
Colder air will filter into the area over the next few days which
will result in some chilly mornings to start the new week. Cloud
cover will inhibit better cooling tonight, which will also limit fog
potential. However, clear skies are expected by Monday morning with
temperatures falling into the mid to upper 30s. If winds are lighter
than expected, there may be potential for frost Monday morning due to
better radiational cooling and less mixing.

An upper low will spin through southern Kansas and Oklahoma. This
will bring needed rainfall to those areas but will likely leave our
forecast area dry. So for now have kept PoPs out of our southern
zones. A little shift in the upper low track could bring some
precipitation into the Linn, KS to Bates, MO areas but even this,
being on the northern edges of the low, wouldn`t amount to much. Thus
the only influence this low should have on our weather is increased
cloud cover, mainly over the southern forecast area.

By the middle to later part of the week, ridging over the western
CONUS will begin to spread east into the center of the country.
Increasing heights and thicknesses will help push temperatures back
into the upper 70s. This will also keep the forecast dry through the
extended.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 244 CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected through much of the forecast
period. MVFR ceilings this afternoon will very likely drop to IFR
tonight as cold advection settles in. Guidance suggest skies will
become VFR late in the valid period so have trended to IFR overnight
and then back to VFR late Sunday morning. Winds will veer to the
north and eventually to the northeast tonight. Winds may be
sustained around 12 kts this afternoon and this evening but should
diminish overnight and tomorrow.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB







000
FXUS63 KEAX 252000
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
300 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Precipitation should quickly diminish this evening as the upper wave
opens up and then more rapidly shifts east. The loss of diurnal
heating will also aid in the demise of left over shower activity.
Colder air will filter into the area over the next few days which
will result in some chilly mornings to start the new week. Cloud
cover will inhibit better cooling tonight, which will also limit fog
potential. However, clear skies are expected by Monday morning with
temperatures falling into the mid to upper 30s. If winds are lighter
than expected, there may be potential for frost Monday morning due to
better radiational cooling and less mixing.

An upper low will spin through southern Kansas and Oklahoma. This
will bring needed rainfall to those areas but will likely leave our
forecast area dry. So for now have kept PoPs out of our southern
zones. A little shift in the upper low track could bring some
precipitation into the Linn, KS to Bates, MO areas but even this,
being on the northern edges of the low, wouldn`t amount to much. Thus
the only influence this low should have on our weather is increased
cloud cover, mainly over the southern forecast area.

By the middle to later part of the week, ridging over the western
CONUS will begin to spread east into the center of the country.
Increasing heights and thicknesses will help push temperatures back
into the upper 70s. This will also keep the forecast dry through the
extended.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 244 CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected through much of the forecast
period. MVFR ceilings this afternoon will very likely drop to IFR
tonight as cold advection settles in. Guidance suggest skies will
become VFR late in the valid period so have trended to IFR overnight
and then back to VFR late Sunday morning. Winds will veer to the
north and eventually to the northeast tonight. Winds may be
sustained around 12 kts this afternoon and this evening but should
diminish overnight and tomorrow.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB








000
FXUS63 KEAX 252000
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
300 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Precipitation should quickly diminish this evening as the upper wave
opens up and then more rapidly shifts east. The loss of diurnal
heating will also aid in the demise of left over shower activity.
Colder air will filter into the area over the next few days which
will result in some chilly mornings to start the new week. Cloud
cover will inhibit better cooling tonight, which will also limit fog
potential. However, clear skies are expected by Monday morning with
temperatures falling into the mid to upper 30s. If winds are lighter
than expected, there may be potential for frost Monday morning due to
better radiational cooling and less mixing.

An upper low will spin through southern Kansas and Oklahoma. This
will bring needed rainfall to those areas but will likely leave our
forecast area dry. So for now have kept PoPs out of our southern
zones. A little shift in the upper low track could bring some
precipitation into the Linn, KS to Bates, MO areas but even this,
being on the northern edges of the low, wouldn`t amount to much. Thus
the only influence this low should have on our weather is increased
cloud cover, mainly over the southern forecast area.

By the middle to later part of the week, ridging over the western
CONUS will begin to spread east into the center of the country.
Increasing heights and thicknesses will help push temperatures back
into the upper 70s. This will also keep the forecast dry through the
extended.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 244 CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected through much of the forecast
period. MVFR ceilings this afternoon will very likely drop to IFR
tonight as cold advection settles in. Guidance suggest skies will
become VFR late in the valid period so have trended to IFR overnight
and then back to VFR late Sunday morning. Winds will veer to the
north and eventually to the northeast tonight. Winds may be
sustained around 12 kts this afternoon and this evening but should
diminish overnight and tomorrow.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB








000
FXUS63 KSGF 251818
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
118 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)

An upper level low center was located over northern Missouri this
afternoon, forcing scattered showers over central Missouri.
Locations along and north of a line from Osceola to Salem will
experience the greatest chance at a shower or two this afternoon.

We don`t think sufficient instability will develop for any severe
storms in SGF`s warning area, but will develop toward the
Mississippi River Valley and to the east.

Stratus will spread across the entire Ozarks region tonight and
may hold temperatures up some. Upper 40s to the middle 50s are
expected for overnight lows. With the upper low exiting the
Ozarks, we should remain precipitation free.

For Sunday, look for decent weather for outdoor activities with
temperatures warming into the 60s, under a mix of sun and cloud.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

A large scale trough across the western U.S. will evolve into a
quasi-closed off upper level low. This feature will create some
unsettled weather across the central and southern Plains. This low
may create some rain for the Ozarks, but this is quite uncertain.

The GFS brings sufficient moisture and lift into southwest
Missouri for showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday.
Meanwhile the ECMWF and Canadian solutions confine all
precipitation across Oklahoma and Arkansas.

For now we will remain conservative with our POP forecasts for
Monday and Tuesday, suggesting a mostly dry forecast. Cloud cover
and northeast breezes will keep temperatures below normal, with
highs on the in the 60s both afternoons.

The Wednesday through Saturday period looks fantastic. A slow
moving upper level ridge will move into the nation`s midsection
and provide warm and sunny weather. Temperatures are expected to
trend well into the 70s by Friday and Saturday. No precipitation
chances are needed for the Wednesday through Saturday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 648 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Several items will affect area aerodromes today. First off is low
level wind shear transitioning to gusty southwest winds. 12z KSGF
raob indicates 40kt about 1000 feet off the ground and this will
result in low level wind shear quickly transitioning to gusty
southwest winds in the next couple of hours. These winds will
shift to a more westerly component heading into this afternoon as
low pressure moves east across northern Missouri. Rain chances
today look best to the north and east of JLN/SGF/BBG. Heading into
this evening, guidance is hinting strongly at an IFR (possibly
LIFR) stratus deck sinking southward into the region as the
aforementioned low exits to the east/southeast. Have introduced
predominate IFR conditions around/just after 06z.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 251818
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
118 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)

An upper level low center was located over northern Missouri this
afternoon, forcing scattered showers over central Missouri.
Locations along and north of a line from Osceola to Salem will
experience the greatest chance at a shower or two this afternoon.

We don`t think sufficient instability will develop for any severe
storms in SGF`s warning area, but will develop toward the
Mississippi River Valley and to the east.

Stratus will spread across the entire Ozarks region tonight and
may hold temperatures up some. Upper 40s to the middle 50s are
expected for overnight lows. With the upper low exiting the
Ozarks, we should remain precipitation free.

For Sunday, look for decent weather for outdoor activities with
temperatures warming into the 60s, under a mix of sun and cloud.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

A large scale trough across the western U.S. will evolve into a
quasi-closed off upper level low. This feature will create some
unsettled weather across the central and southern Plains. This low
may create some rain for the Ozarks, but this is quite uncertain.

The GFS brings sufficient moisture and lift into southwest
Missouri for showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday.
Meanwhile the ECMWF and Canadian solutions confine all
precipitation across Oklahoma and Arkansas.

For now we will remain conservative with our POP forecasts for
Monday and Tuesday, suggesting a mostly dry forecast. Cloud cover
and northeast breezes will keep temperatures below normal, with
highs on the in the 60s both afternoons.

The Wednesday through Saturday period looks fantastic. A slow
moving upper level ridge will move into the nation`s midsection
and provide warm and sunny weather. Temperatures are expected to
trend well into the 70s by Friday and Saturday. No precipitation
chances are needed for the Wednesday through Saturday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 648 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Several items will affect area aerodromes today. First off is low
level wind shear transitioning to gusty southwest winds. 12z KSGF
raob indicates 40kt about 1000 feet off the ground and this will
result in low level wind shear quickly transitioning to gusty
southwest winds in the next couple of hours. These winds will
shift to a more westerly component heading into this afternoon as
low pressure moves east across northern Missouri. Rain chances
today look best to the north and east of JLN/SGF/BBG. Heading into
this evening, guidance is hinting strongly at an IFR (possibly
LIFR) stratus deck sinking southward into the region as the
aforementioned low exits to the east/southeast. Have introduced
predominate IFR conditions around/just after 06z.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 251818
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
118 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)

An upper level low center was located over northern Missouri this
afternoon, forcing scattered showers over central Missouri.
Locations along and north of a line from Osceola to Salem will
experience the greatest chance at a shower or two this afternoon.

We don`t think sufficient instability will develop for any severe
storms in SGF`s warning area, but will develop toward the
Mississippi River Valley and to the east.

Stratus will spread across the entire Ozarks region tonight and
may hold temperatures up some. Upper 40s to the middle 50s are
expected for overnight lows. With the upper low exiting the
Ozarks, we should remain precipitation free.

For Sunday, look for decent weather for outdoor activities with
temperatures warming into the 60s, under a mix of sun and cloud.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

A large scale trough across the western U.S. will evolve into a
quasi-closed off upper level low. This feature will create some
unsettled weather across the central and southern Plains. This low
may create some rain for the Ozarks, but this is quite uncertain.

The GFS brings sufficient moisture and lift into southwest
Missouri for showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday.
Meanwhile the ECMWF and Canadian solutions confine all
precipitation across Oklahoma and Arkansas.

For now we will remain conservative with our POP forecasts for
Monday and Tuesday, suggesting a mostly dry forecast. Cloud cover
and northeast breezes will keep temperatures below normal, with
highs on the in the 60s both afternoons.

The Wednesday through Saturday period looks fantastic. A slow
moving upper level ridge will move into the nation`s midsection
and provide warm and sunny weather. Temperatures are expected to
trend well into the 70s by Friday and Saturday. No precipitation
chances are needed for the Wednesday through Saturday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 648 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Several items will affect area aerodromes today. First off is low
level wind shear transitioning to gusty southwest winds. 12z KSGF
raob indicates 40kt about 1000 feet off the ground and this will
result in low level wind shear quickly transitioning to gusty
southwest winds in the next couple of hours. These winds will
shift to a more westerly component heading into this afternoon as
low pressure moves east across northern Missouri. Rain chances
today look best to the north and east of JLN/SGF/BBG. Heading into
this evening, guidance is hinting strongly at an IFR (possibly
LIFR) stratus deck sinking southward into the region as the
aforementioned low exits to the east/southeast. Have introduced
predominate IFR conditions around/just after 06z.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 251818
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
118 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)

An upper level low center was located over northern Missouri this
afternoon, forcing scattered showers over central Missouri.
Locations along and north of a line from Osceola to Salem will
experience the greatest chance at a shower or two this afternoon.

We don`t think sufficient instability will develop for any severe
storms in SGF`s warning area, but will develop toward the
Mississippi River Valley and to the east.

Stratus will spread across the entire Ozarks region tonight and
may hold temperatures up some. Upper 40s to the middle 50s are
expected for overnight lows. With the upper low exiting the
Ozarks, we should remain precipitation free.

For Sunday, look for decent weather for outdoor activities with
temperatures warming into the 60s, under a mix of sun and cloud.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

A large scale trough across the western U.S. will evolve into a
quasi-closed off upper level low. This feature will create some
unsettled weather across the central and southern Plains. This low
may create some rain for the Ozarks, but this is quite uncertain.

The GFS brings sufficient moisture and lift into southwest
Missouri for showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday.
Meanwhile the ECMWF and Canadian solutions confine all
precipitation across Oklahoma and Arkansas.

For now we will remain conservative with our POP forecasts for
Monday and Tuesday, suggesting a mostly dry forecast. Cloud cover
and northeast breezes will keep temperatures below normal, with
highs on the in the 60s both afternoons.

The Wednesday through Saturday period looks fantastic. A slow
moving upper level ridge will move into the nation`s midsection
and provide warm and sunny weather. Temperatures are expected to
trend well into the 70s by Friday and Saturday. No precipitation
chances are needed for the Wednesday through Saturday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 648 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Several items will affect area aerodromes today. First off is low
level wind shear transitioning to gusty southwest winds. 12z KSGF
raob indicates 40kt about 1000 feet off the ground and this will
result in low level wind shear quickly transitioning to gusty
southwest winds in the next couple of hours. These winds will
shift to a more westerly component heading into this afternoon as
low pressure moves east across northern Missouri. Rain chances
today look best to the north and east of JLN/SGF/BBG. Heading into
this evening, guidance is hinting strongly at an IFR (possibly
LIFR) stratus deck sinking southward into the region as the
aforementioned low exits to the east/southeast. Have introduced
predominate IFR conditions around/just after 06z.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KLSX 251757
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1257 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through this Evening)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Well advertised storm system will bring two rounds of showers and
thunderstorms to the CWA over the next 12 hours. The first round is
just now taking shape as warm advection increases ahead of the
shortwave now lifting from the southern Plains into the lower
Missouri River Valley. Surface low pressure depicted by model
guidance the past few days seems to be associated with well defined
MCV on regional radar currently spinning in far southeast Nebraska.
Showers and thunderstorms should continue to develop from northwest
Missouri to southeast Missouri and lift north through the predawn
hours. Dry slot will push through the southeastern half of the CWA
ahead of the low pressure this morning and early afternoon.  This
will cause the band of warm advection showers and thunderstorms to
steadily march northeast of the CWA. It will also set the stage for
at least some breaks in the cloud cover south of Interstate 70 and
instability to increase this afternoon.

The second round of precipitation today will take shape later this
morning and into the afternoon as the low pressure center traverses
east-southeast across the CWA.  Rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms will accompany the low pressure center (MCV) and
additional thunderstorm development is likely ahead of and to the
south of the surface low. SPC continues to highlight the likelihood
of severe thunderstorm development this afternoon, mainly southeast
of the St. Louis Metro.  Latest explicit model guidance depicts
discrete storm development between 2 PM and 4 PM just south of St.
Louis, with this activity exiting the CWA shortly after 7 PM. Large
hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats with the
supercells this afternoon and early this evening. The threat of
tornadoes is more conditional and will likely hinge on how much
instability can be realized ahead of the low and if the surface
winds can remain backed across this area.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Showers will come to an end from northwest to southeast this
evening and clearing is still expected on Sunday with below normal
temperatures. Rest of the forecast remains unchanged with
temperatures gradually returning to normal by the end of the week
and precipitation chances remaining low.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Quick aviation update as storms are developing on radar attm.
Generally expect coverage in rain and IFR to increase and move
south across the area this afternoon into tonight. Strongest
thunderstorm activity expected along and south of the I-70
corridor into early evening. Thunderstorms should taper off into
general showers and IFR ceilings. Rain will end through the mid-
late evening but IFR will persist into Sunday morning.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 251757
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1257 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through this Evening)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Well advertised storm system will bring two rounds of showers and
thunderstorms to the CWA over the next 12 hours. The first round is
just now taking shape as warm advection increases ahead of the
shortwave now lifting from the southern Plains into the lower
Missouri River Valley. Surface low pressure depicted by model
guidance the past few days seems to be associated with well defined
MCV on regional radar currently spinning in far southeast Nebraska.
Showers and thunderstorms should continue to develop from northwest
Missouri to southeast Missouri and lift north through the predawn
hours. Dry slot will push through the southeastern half of the CWA
ahead of the low pressure this morning and early afternoon.  This
will cause the band of warm advection showers and thunderstorms to
steadily march northeast of the CWA. It will also set the stage for
at least some breaks in the cloud cover south of Interstate 70 and
instability to increase this afternoon.

The second round of precipitation today will take shape later this
morning and into the afternoon as the low pressure center traverses
east-southeast across the CWA.  Rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms will accompany the low pressure center (MCV) and
additional thunderstorm development is likely ahead of and to the
south of the surface low. SPC continues to highlight the likelihood
of severe thunderstorm development this afternoon, mainly southeast
of the St. Louis Metro.  Latest explicit model guidance depicts
discrete storm development between 2 PM and 4 PM just south of St.
Louis, with this activity exiting the CWA shortly after 7 PM. Large
hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats with the
supercells this afternoon and early this evening. The threat of
tornadoes is more conditional and will likely hinge on how much
instability can be realized ahead of the low and if the surface
winds can remain backed across this area.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Showers will come to an end from northwest to southeast this
evening and clearing is still expected on Sunday with below normal
temperatures. Rest of the forecast remains unchanged with
temperatures gradually returning to normal by the end of the week
and precipitation chances remaining low.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Quick aviation update as storms are developing on radar attm.
Generally expect coverage in rain and IFR to increase and move
south across the area this afternoon into tonight. Strongest
thunderstorm activity expected along and south of the I-70
corridor into early evening. Thunderstorms should taper off into
general showers and IFR ceilings. Rain will end through the mid-
late evening but IFR will persist into Sunday morning.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 251727
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1227 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A nearly vertically-stacked area of low pressure is located over
northeastern Kansas early this morning.  Showers and thunderstorms
continue to develop and rotate around this feature, but so far, dry
air aloft (evident on water vapor) has limited development across
most of the forecast area this morning.  A few showers/storms have
managed to develop across the periphery of the CWA, and this trend
should continue through daybreak.

As that area of low pressure slowly moves east across central
Missouri today, a cold front will begin to push south toward the
area. Precipitation should generally be confined to areas close to
the surface low, though a brief stray shower isn`t beyond question
along the front.  For the most part, however, the daytime hours
should be dry for the southwestern 2/3 of the forecast area.  The
close proximity of the surface low will also result in a rather
windy day, with west winds sustained between 15 and 20 MPH, with
gusts between 30 and 35 MPH today.  Temperatures today will vary
considerably north to south given variations in cloud cover,
precipitation, and frontal timing, with highs in the upper 60s
across central Missouri, and near 80 across the Arkansas state line.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Sunday should bring cooler and dry conditions, as surface high
pressure noses south into the area. Winds will again be gusty, with
easterly flow gusting up to 25 MPH at times.  Temperatures Sunday
will be on the cool side of seasonable, with highs in the low 60s.

The next chance for precipitation will arrive late Sunday night into
Tuesday, as a slow moving upper level low traverses the southern
Plains.  The Ozarks should be on the northern edge of the
precipitation, with shower/thunderstorm chances confined to areas
southwest of a Pittsburg to Branson line.  Easterly flow at the
surface will help keep temperatures rather cool, with highs in the
low 60s.

By the middle of the week, the upper level pattern will become
increasingly amplified, with a deepening surface trough across New
England and a strengthening surface ridge over the southwestern US
and Intermountain West. This should result in a few days of dry
weather to end the week, with temperatures right around seasonal
averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Weak cold front to pass through region late this afternoon and
cross the Arkansas border by early this evening. Large swath of
IFR and possible LIFR to rotate southward and affect all TAF sites
starting late this evening as cold air advection saturates near
surface layer. Ceilings then to improve during the morning on
Sunday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Runnels







000
FXUS63 KSGF 251727
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1227 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A nearly vertically-stacked area of low pressure is located over
northeastern Kansas early this morning.  Showers and thunderstorms
continue to develop and rotate around this feature, but so far, dry
air aloft (evident on water vapor) has limited development across
most of the forecast area this morning.  A few showers/storms have
managed to develop across the periphery of the CWA, and this trend
should continue through daybreak.

As that area of low pressure slowly moves east across central
Missouri today, a cold front will begin to push south toward the
area. Precipitation should generally be confined to areas close to
the surface low, though a brief stray shower isn`t beyond question
along the front.  For the most part, however, the daytime hours
should be dry for the southwestern 2/3 of the forecast area.  The
close proximity of the surface low will also result in a rather
windy day, with west winds sustained between 15 and 20 MPH, with
gusts between 30 and 35 MPH today.  Temperatures today will vary
considerably north to south given variations in cloud cover,
precipitation, and frontal timing, with highs in the upper 60s
across central Missouri, and near 80 across the Arkansas state line.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Sunday should bring cooler and dry conditions, as surface high
pressure noses south into the area. Winds will again be gusty, with
easterly flow gusting up to 25 MPH at times.  Temperatures Sunday
will be on the cool side of seasonable, with highs in the low 60s.

The next chance for precipitation will arrive late Sunday night into
Tuesday, as a slow moving upper level low traverses the southern
Plains.  The Ozarks should be on the northern edge of the
precipitation, with shower/thunderstorm chances confined to areas
southwest of a Pittsburg to Branson line.  Easterly flow at the
surface will help keep temperatures rather cool, with highs in the
low 60s.

By the middle of the week, the upper level pattern will become
increasingly amplified, with a deepening surface trough across New
England and a strengthening surface ridge over the southwestern US
and Intermountain West. This should result in a few days of dry
weather to end the week, with temperatures right around seasonal
averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Weak cold front to pass through region late this afternoon and
cross the Arkansas border by early this evening. Large swath of
IFR and possible LIFR to rotate southward and affect all TAF sites
starting late this evening as cold air advection saturates near
surface layer. Ceilings then to improve during the morning on
Sunday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Runnels






000
FXUS63 KSGF 251727
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1227 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A nearly vertically-stacked area of low pressure is located over
northeastern Kansas early this morning.  Showers and thunderstorms
continue to develop and rotate around this feature, but so far, dry
air aloft (evident on water vapor) has limited development across
most of the forecast area this morning.  A few showers/storms have
managed to develop across the periphery of the CWA, and this trend
should continue through daybreak.

As that area of low pressure slowly moves east across central
Missouri today, a cold front will begin to push south toward the
area. Precipitation should generally be confined to areas close to
the surface low, though a brief stray shower isn`t beyond question
along the front.  For the most part, however, the daytime hours
should be dry for the southwestern 2/3 of the forecast area.  The
close proximity of the surface low will also result in a rather
windy day, with west winds sustained between 15 and 20 MPH, with
gusts between 30 and 35 MPH today.  Temperatures today will vary
considerably north to south given variations in cloud cover,
precipitation, and frontal timing, with highs in the upper 60s
across central Missouri, and near 80 across the Arkansas state line.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Sunday should bring cooler and dry conditions, as surface high
pressure noses south into the area. Winds will again be gusty, with
easterly flow gusting up to 25 MPH at times.  Temperatures Sunday
will be on the cool side of seasonable, with highs in the low 60s.

The next chance for precipitation will arrive late Sunday night into
Tuesday, as a slow moving upper level low traverses the southern
Plains.  The Ozarks should be on the northern edge of the
precipitation, with shower/thunderstorm chances confined to areas
southwest of a Pittsburg to Branson line.  Easterly flow at the
surface will help keep temperatures rather cool, with highs in the
low 60s.

By the middle of the week, the upper level pattern will become
increasingly amplified, with a deepening surface trough across New
England and a strengthening surface ridge over the southwestern US
and Intermountain West. This should result in a few days of dry
weather to end the week, with temperatures right around seasonal
averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Weak cold front to pass through region late this afternoon and
cross the Arkansas border by early this evening. Large swath of
IFR and possible LIFR to rotate southward and affect all TAF sites
starting late this evening as cold air advection saturates near
surface layer. Ceilings then to improve during the morning on
Sunday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Runnels







000
FXUS63 KSGF 251727
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1227 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A nearly vertically-stacked area of low pressure is located over
northeastern Kansas early this morning.  Showers and thunderstorms
continue to develop and rotate around this feature, but so far, dry
air aloft (evident on water vapor) has limited development across
most of the forecast area this morning.  A few showers/storms have
managed to develop across the periphery of the CWA, and this trend
should continue through daybreak.

As that area of low pressure slowly moves east across central
Missouri today, a cold front will begin to push south toward the
area. Precipitation should generally be confined to areas close to
the surface low, though a brief stray shower isn`t beyond question
along the front.  For the most part, however, the daytime hours
should be dry for the southwestern 2/3 of the forecast area.  The
close proximity of the surface low will also result in a rather
windy day, with west winds sustained between 15 and 20 MPH, with
gusts between 30 and 35 MPH today.  Temperatures today will vary
considerably north to south given variations in cloud cover,
precipitation, and frontal timing, with highs in the upper 60s
across central Missouri, and near 80 across the Arkansas state line.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Sunday should bring cooler and dry conditions, as surface high
pressure noses south into the area. Winds will again be gusty, with
easterly flow gusting up to 25 MPH at times.  Temperatures Sunday
will be on the cool side of seasonable, with highs in the low 60s.

The next chance for precipitation will arrive late Sunday night into
Tuesday, as a slow moving upper level low traverses the southern
Plains.  The Ozarks should be on the northern edge of the
precipitation, with shower/thunderstorm chances confined to areas
southwest of a Pittsburg to Branson line.  Easterly flow at the
surface will help keep temperatures rather cool, with highs in the
low 60s.

By the middle of the week, the upper level pattern will become
increasingly amplified, with a deepening surface trough across New
England and a strengthening surface ridge over the southwestern US
and Intermountain West. This should result in a few days of dry
weather to end the week, with temperatures right around seasonal
averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Weak cold front to pass through region late this afternoon and
cross the Arkansas border by early this evening. Large swath of
IFR and possible LIFR to rotate southward and affect all TAF sites
starting late this evening as cold air advection saturates near
surface layer. Ceilings then to improve during the morning on
Sunday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Runnels






000
FXUS63 KEAX 251613
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1113 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1113 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Have sent a small update to the forecast to account for precipitation
trends and where the best chances for renewed convection may exist
this afternoon. Surface analysis shows the surface low basically over
the KC metro with a warm front extending eastward roughly along the
MO river. This boundary is going to need to be watched for possible
renewed convection. The NAM and the RAP both show strong convergence
along this boundary later today with the NAM showing decent buildup
of instability right along the boundary. Cold 500mb temperatures of
-15C to -17C will aid in stretching any potential updraft. These
parameters are favorable for potential funnels this afternoon.
However there are some weaknesses. The position/orientation of the
surface low nearly under to potentially behind the 500mb low and the
opening of the upper low itself may be problematic for these hard to
predict events. Given the strength of the convergence along the
boundary and the strong shearing associated with boundary, if an
updraft can root on the boundary, I would not be surprised to reports
of funnel clouds stream in. The greatest potential for this will be
roughly along the I-70 corridor in our eastern zones. Have increased
PoPs in this area based short term model trends for the afternoon and
then quickly dissipate them this evening when any surface heating is
lost.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Remnants of Friday`s severe weather across central Kansas is
currently moving through the area, and is rather weak. Scattered
thunderstorms are located across most of northwest Missouri and
northeast Kansas, but lack of any appreciable instability has kept
these storms from becoming more than a brief shower as they roll
through. Surface analysis around 08z indicates that the surface low
is still to the west of the forecast area, and that is also
represented by general southeasterly surface winds across most of
the area. While the sun is still down these showers will remain
relatively light, but as the day wears on and the mid level trough -
which is currently stacked on top of the aforementioned low just
west of here - rolls through the area more scattered showers will
form. There should be a slightly higher level of instability across
the area today, with the cooler temperatures associated with the mid
level trough overhead. So, some storms could grow tall and produce
some small hail. As the mid level trough moves through, it generally
opens up and loses some of its organization. The areas of low
pressure within the column also become a bit disjointed through the
day, so a traditional cold core thunderstorm/funnel day does not
appear to be in the cards, but a few storms through the day could
produce some small hail, and periods of heavy rain and gusty winds.
The focus for thunderstorm activity will be along a sagging cold
front that will drop south along with the surface low. The enhanced
convergence along that boundary should aid in getting storms fired
up. The boundary will initially be located north of the forecast
area, but by noon should be located along/near Interstate 70. By
tonight the cold front will be located south of the area, with a
surface ridge nosing in. This will effectively scour out the
moisture, and end any precipitation chances, likely by tonight.

With the cool dry air working its way into the area the next few
nights could be chilly, with lows in the upper 30s along the IA/MO
border, and 40s farther south. But with good insolation through the
day highs for the rest of the weekend and into next week will follow
a gradual warming trend, with 60s anticipated through early next
week, then well into the 70s by late next week. With shortwave
ridging over the area, despite the warmer and moister air moving in
through the late part of the week mid level ascent will be lacking
and low level convergence triggers will be absent, thus a dry
forecast is on tap throughout the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 547 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in and around the
aviation terminals through at least the mid morning hours before
moving out of the area. Expect ceilings to bounce between MVFR and
VFR through that time period, with a gradual deterioration to
prevailing MVFR conditions up on frontal passage around 16z. Expect
the stratus to remain over the area through the remainder of the
forecast period. Guidance does suggest that CIGs will come down to
IFR levels late in the forecast period, but for now will keep things
in MVFR.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB
DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton






000
FXUS63 KEAX 251613
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1113 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1113 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Have sent a small update to the forecast to account for precipitation
trends and where the best chances for renewed convection may exist
this afternoon. Surface analysis shows the surface low basically over
the KC metro with a warm front extending eastward roughly along the
MO river. This boundary is going to need to be watched for possible
renewed convection. The NAM and the RAP both show strong convergence
along this boundary later today with the NAM showing decent buildup
of instability right along the boundary. Cold 500mb temperatures of
-15C to -17C will aid in stretching any potential updraft. These
parameters are favorable for potential funnels this afternoon.
However there are some weaknesses. The position/orientation of the
surface low nearly under to potentially behind the 500mb low and the
opening of the upper low itself may be problematic for these hard to
predict events. Given the strength of the convergence along the
boundary and the strong shearing associated with boundary, if an
updraft can root on the boundary, I would not be surprised to reports
of funnel clouds stream in. The greatest potential for this will be
roughly along the I-70 corridor in our eastern zones. Have increased
PoPs in this area based short term model trends for the afternoon and
then quickly dissipate them this evening when any surface heating is
lost.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Remnants of Friday`s severe weather across central Kansas is
currently moving through the area, and is rather weak. Scattered
thunderstorms are located across most of northwest Missouri and
northeast Kansas, but lack of any appreciable instability has kept
these storms from becoming more than a brief shower as they roll
through. Surface analysis around 08z indicates that the surface low
is still to the west of the forecast area, and that is also
represented by general southeasterly surface winds across most of
the area. While the sun is still down these showers will remain
relatively light, but as the day wears on and the mid level trough -
which is currently stacked on top of the aforementioned low just
west of here - rolls through the area more scattered showers will
form. There should be a slightly higher level of instability across
the area today, with the cooler temperatures associated with the mid
level trough overhead. So, some storms could grow tall and produce
some small hail. As the mid level trough moves through, it generally
opens up and loses some of its organization. The areas of low
pressure within the column also become a bit disjointed through the
day, so a traditional cold core thunderstorm/funnel day does not
appear to be in the cards, but a few storms through the day could
produce some small hail, and periods of heavy rain and gusty winds.
The focus for thunderstorm activity will be along a sagging cold
front that will drop south along with the surface low. The enhanced
convergence along that boundary should aid in getting storms fired
up. The boundary will initially be located north of the forecast
area, but by noon should be located along/near Interstate 70. By
tonight the cold front will be located south of the area, with a
surface ridge nosing in. This will effectively scour out the
moisture, and end any precipitation chances, likely by tonight.

With the cool dry air working its way into the area the next few
nights could be chilly, with lows in the upper 30s along the IA/MO
border, and 40s farther south. But with good insolation through the
day highs for the rest of the weekend and into next week will follow
a gradual warming trend, with 60s anticipated through early next
week, then well into the 70s by late next week. With shortwave
ridging over the area, despite the warmer and moister air moving in
through the late part of the week mid level ascent will be lacking
and low level convergence triggers will be absent, thus a dry
forecast is on tap throughout the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 547 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in and around the
aviation terminals through at least the mid morning hours before
moving out of the area. Expect ceilings to bounce between MVFR and
VFR through that time period, with a gradual deterioration to
prevailing MVFR conditions up on frontal passage around 16z. Expect
the stratus to remain over the area through the remainder of the
forecast period. Guidance does suggest that CIGs will come down to
IFR levels late in the forecast period, but for now will keep things
in MVFR.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB
DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 251613
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1113 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1113 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Have sent a small update to the forecast to account for precipitation
trends and where the best chances for renewed convection may exist
this afternoon. Surface analysis shows the surface low basically over
the KC metro with a warm front extending eastward roughly along the
MO river. This boundary is going to need to be watched for possible
renewed convection. The NAM and the RAP both show strong convergence
along this boundary later today with the NAM showing decent buildup
of instability right along the boundary. Cold 500mb temperatures of
-15C to -17C will aid in stretching any potential updraft. These
parameters are favorable for potential funnels this afternoon.
However there are some weaknesses. The position/orientation of the
surface low nearly under to potentially behind the 500mb low and the
opening of the upper low itself may be problematic for these hard to
predict events. Given the strength of the convergence along the
boundary and the strong shearing associated with boundary, if an
updraft can root on the boundary, I would not be surprised to reports
of funnel clouds stream in. The greatest potential for this will be
roughly along the I-70 corridor in our eastern zones. Have increased
PoPs in this area based short term model trends for the afternoon and
then quickly dissipate them this evening when any surface heating is
lost.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Remnants of Friday`s severe weather across central Kansas is
currently moving through the area, and is rather weak. Scattered
thunderstorms are located across most of northwest Missouri and
northeast Kansas, but lack of any appreciable instability has kept
these storms from becoming more than a brief shower as they roll
through. Surface analysis around 08z indicates that the surface low
is still to the west of the forecast area, and that is also
represented by general southeasterly surface winds across most of
the area. While the sun is still down these showers will remain
relatively light, but as the day wears on and the mid level trough -
which is currently stacked on top of the aforementioned low just
west of here - rolls through the area more scattered showers will
form. There should be a slightly higher level of instability across
the area today, with the cooler temperatures associated with the mid
level trough overhead. So, some storms could grow tall and produce
some small hail. As the mid level trough moves through, it generally
opens up and loses some of its organization. The areas of low
pressure within the column also become a bit disjointed through the
day, so a traditional cold core thunderstorm/funnel day does not
appear to be in the cards, but a few storms through the day could
produce some small hail, and periods of heavy rain and gusty winds.
The focus for thunderstorm activity will be along a sagging cold
front that will drop south along with the surface low. The enhanced
convergence along that boundary should aid in getting storms fired
up. The boundary will initially be located north of the forecast
area, but by noon should be located along/near Interstate 70. By
tonight the cold front will be located south of the area, with a
surface ridge nosing in. This will effectively scour out the
moisture, and end any precipitation chances, likely by tonight.

With the cool dry air working its way into the area the next few
nights could be chilly, with lows in the upper 30s along the IA/MO
border, and 40s farther south. But with good insolation through the
day highs for the rest of the weekend and into next week will follow
a gradual warming trend, with 60s anticipated through early next
week, then well into the 70s by late next week. With shortwave
ridging over the area, despite the warmer and moister air moving in
through the late part of the week mid level ascent will be lacking
and low level convergence triggers will be absent, thus a dry
forecast is on tap throughout the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 547 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in and around the
aviation terminals through at least the mid morning hours before
moving out of the area. Expect ceilings to bounce between MVFR and
VFR through that time period, with a gradual deterioration to
prevailing MVFR conditions up on frontal passage around 16z. Expect
the stratus to remain over the area through the remainder of the
forecast period. Guidance does suggest that CIGs will come down to
IFR levels late in the forecast period, but for now will keep things
in MVFR.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB
DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 251613
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1113 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1113 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Have sent a small update to the forecast to account for precipitation
trends and where the best chances for renewed convection may exist
this afternoon. Surface analysis shows the surface low basically over
the KC metro with a warm front extending eastward roughly along the
MO river. This boundary is going to need to be watched for possible
renewed convection. The NAM and the RAP both show strong convergence
along this boundary later today with the NAM showing decent buildup
of instability right along the boundary. Cold 500mb temperatures of
-15C to -17C will aid in stretching any potential updraft. These
parameters are favorable for potential funnels this afternoon.
However there are some weaknesses. The position/orientation of the
surface low nearly under to potentially behind the 500mb low and the
opening of the upper low itself may be problematic for these hard to
predict events. Given the strength of the convergence along the
boundary and the strong shearing associated with boundary, if an
updraft can root on the boundary, I would not be surprised to reports
of funnel clouds stream in. The greatest potential for this will be
roughly along the I-70 corridor in our eastern zones. Have increased
PoPs in this area based short term model trends for the afternoon and
then quickly dissipate them this evening when any surface heating is
lost.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Remnants of Friday`s severe weather across central Kansas is
currently moving through the area, and is rather weak. Scattered
thunderstorms are located across most of northwest Missouri and
northeast Kansas, but lack of any appreciable instability has kept
these storms from becoming more than a brief shower as they roll
through. Surface analysis around 08z indicates that the surface low
is still to the west of the forecast area, and that is also
represented by general southeasterly surface winds across most of
the area. While the sun is still down these showers will remain
relatively light, but as the day wears on and the mid level trough -
which is currently stacked on top of the aforementioned low just
west of here - rolls through the area more scattered showers will
form. There should be a slightly higher level of instability across
the area today, with the cooler temperatures associated with the mid
level trough overhead. So, some storms could grow tall and produce
some small hail. As the mid level trough moves through, it generally
opens up and loses some of its organization. The areas of low
pressure within the column also become a bit disjointed through the
day, so a traditional cold core thunderstorm/funnel day does not
appear to be in the cards, but a few storms through the day could
produce some small hail, and periods of heavy rain and gusty winds.
The focus for thunderstorm activity will be along a sagging cold
front that will drop south along with the surface low. The enhanced
convergence along that boundary should aid in getting storms fired
up. The boundary will initially be located north of the forecast
area, but by noon should be located along/near Interstate 70. By
tonight the cold front will be located south of the area, with a
surface ridge nosing in. This will effectively scour out the
moisture, and end any precipitation chances, likely by tonight.

With the cool dry air working its way into the area the next few
nights could be chilly, with lows in the upper 30s along the IA/MO
border, and 40s farther south. But with good insolation through the
day highs for the rest of the weekend and into next week will follow
a gradual warming trend, with 60s anticipated through early next
week, then well into the 70s by late next week. With shortwave
ridging over the area, despite the warmer and moister air moving in
through the late part of the week mid level ascent will be lacking
and low level convergence triggers will be absent, thus a dry
forecast is on tap throughout the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 547 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in and around the
aviation terminals through at least the mid morning hours before
moving out of the area. Expect ceilings to bounce between MVFR and
VFR through that time period, with a gradual deterioration to
prevailing MVFR conditions up on frontal passage around 16z. Expect
the stratus to remain over the area through the remainder of the
forecast period. Guidance does suggest that CIGs will come down to
IFR levels late in the forecast period, but for now will keep things
in MVFR.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB
DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton






000
FXUS63 KLSX 251213
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
713 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through this Evening)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Well advertised storm system will bring two rounds of showers and
thunderstorms to the CWA over the next 12 hours. The first round is
just now taking shape as warm advection increases ahead of the
shortwave now lifting from the southern Plains into the lower
Missouri River Valley. Surface low pressure depicted by model
guidance the past few days seems to be associated with well defined
MCV on regional radar currently spinning in far southeast Nebraska.
Showers and thunderstorms should continue to develop from northwest
Missouri to southeast Missouri and lift north through the predawn
hours. Dry slot will push through the southeastern half of the CWA
ahead of the low pressure this morning and early afternoon.  This
will cause the band of warm advection showers and thunderstorms to
steadily march northeast of the CWA. It will also set the stage for
at least some breaks in the cloud cover south of Interstate 70 and
instability to increase this afternoon.

The second round of precipitation today will take shape later this
morning and into the afternoon as the low pressure center traverses
east-southeast across the CWA.  Rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms will accompany the low pressure center (MCV) and
additional thunderstorm development is likely ahead of and to the
south of the surface low. SPC continues to highlight the likelihood
of severe thunderstorm development this afternoon, mainly southeast
of the St. Louis Metro.  Latest explicit model guidance depicts
discrete storm development between 2 PM and 4 PM just south of St.
Louis, with this activity exiting the CWA shortly after 7 PM. Large
hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats with the
supercells this afternoon and early this evening. The threat of
tornadoes is more conditional and will likely hinge on how much
instability can be realized ahead of the low and if the surface
winds can remain backed across this area.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Showers will come to an end from northwest to southeast this
evening and clearing is still expected on Sunday with below normal
temperatures. Rest of the forecast remains unchanged with
temperatures gradually returning to normal by the end of the week
and precipitation chances remaining low.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Aviation overview: A slow-moving low pressure system will move
east-southeast across the region today. Periods of SHRA/TSRA are
expected at all TAF sites at different times of the day depending
on each terminal`s location relative to the track of the low
pressure system. A trailing cold front will then move through the
region tonight behind the departing low pressure system.

Specifics for KCOU: Initially IFR ceilings at TAF issuance should
improve to at least MVFR for several hours before additional
SHRA/TSRA develop during the afternoon. Cigs should eventually
fall back to IFR tonight on the cold side of the cold front.
Initially southeast winds will veer and become southerly to
southwesterly today, then become northeasterly early tonight
behind the cold front.

Specifics for KUIN: Based on upstream trends, prolonged periods
of SHRA/TSRA are expected at KUIN since it will be located north
of the surface low track. One cluster of thunderstorms was located
just upstream from KUIN at TAF issuance, and it should reach the
terminal by 13z. Initial thoughts are that KUIN should be too far
north to be affected by much in the way of afternoon thunderstorm
development, although a few embedded thunderstorms may occur. If
any clearing occurs at KUIN this afternoon, then the resulting
instability will aid thunderstorm development. Initially
southeasterly winds will back and become easterly to northeasterly
today, then remain northeasterly through the end of the TAF
period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: The southern end of a SHRA/TSRA
cluster was approaching St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF
issuance. After the morning convection tapers off, there should be
a dry period lasting several hours before the next round of
thunderstorms develops during the afternoon. After some
improvement during the late morning or early afternoon, cigs are
expected to fall back to MVFR tonight on the cold side of the
cold front. Initially southeasterly winds will veer and become
southerly to southwesterly today, then turn northeasterly early
tonight behind the cold front.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 251213
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
713 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through this Evening)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Well advertised storm system will bring two rounds of showers and
thunderstorms to the CWA over the next 12 hours. The first round is
just now taking shape as warm advection increases ahead of the
shortwave now lifting from the southern Plains into the lower
Missouri River Valley. Surface low pressure depicted by model
guidance the past few days seems to be associated with well defined
MCV on regional radar currently spinning in far southeast Nebraska.
Showers and thunderstorms should continue to develop from northwest
Missouri to southeast Missouri and lift north through the predawn
hours. Dry slot will push through the southeastern half of the CWA
ahead of the low pressure this morning and early afternoon.  This
will cause the band of warm advection showers and thunderstorms to
steadily march northeast of the CWA. It will also set the stage for
at least some breaks in the cloud cover south of Interstate 70 and
instability to increase this afternoon.

The second round of precipitation today will take shape later this
morning and into the afternoon as the low pressure center traverses
east-southeast across the CWA.  Rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms will accompany the low pressure center (MCV) and
additional thunderstorm development is likely ahead of and to the
south of the surface low. SPC continues to highlight the likelihood
of severe thunderstorm development this afternoon, mainly southeast
of the St. Louis Metro.  Latest explicit model guidance depicts
discrete storm development between 2 PM and 4 PM just south of St.
Louis, with this activity exiting the CWA shortly after 7 PM. Large
hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats with the
supercells this afternoon and early this evening. The threat of
tornadoes is more conditional and will likely hinge on how much
instability can be realized ahead of the low and if the surface
winds can remain backed across this area.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Showers will come to an end from northwest to southeast this
evening and clearing is still expected on Sunday with below normal
temperatures. Rest of the forecast remains unchanged with
temperatures gradually returning to normal by the end of the week
and precipitation chances remaining low.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Aviation overview: A slow-moving low pressure system will move
east-southeast across the region today. Periods of SHRA/TSRA are
expected at all TAF sites at different times of the day depending
on each terminal`s location relative to the track of the low
pressure system. A trailing cold front will then move through the
region tonight behind the departing low pressure system.

Specifics for KCOU: Initially IFR ceilings at TAF issuance should
improve to at least MVFR for several hours before additional
SHRA/TSRA develop during the afternoon. Cigs should eventually
fall back to IFR tonight on the cold side of the cold front.
Initially southeast winds will veer and become southerly to
southwesterly today, then become northeasterly early tonight
behind the cold front.

Specifics for KUIN: Based on upstream trends, prolonged periods
of SHRA/TSRA are expected at KUIN since it will be located north
of the surface low track. One cluster of thunderstorms was located
just upstream from KUIN at TAF issuance, and it should reach the
terminal by 13z. Initial thoughts are that KUIN should be too far
north to be affected by much in the way of afternoon thunderstorm
development, although a few embedded thunderstorms may occur. If
any clearing occurs at KUIN this afternoon, then the resulting
instability will aid thunderstorm development. Initially
southeasterly winds will back and become easterly to northeasterly
today, then remain northeasterly through the end of the TAF
period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: The southern end of a SHRA/TSRA
cluster was approaching St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF
issuance. After the morning convection tapers off, there should be
a dry period lasting several hours before the next round of
thunderstorms develops during the afternoon. After some
improvement during the late morning or early afternoon, cigs are
expected to fall back to MVFR tonight on the cold side of the
cold front. Initially southeasterly winds will veer and become
southerly to southwesterly today, then turn northeasterly early
tonight behind the cold front.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 251213
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
713 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through this Evening)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Well advertised storm system will bring two rounds of showers and
thunderstorms to the CWA over the next 12 hours. The first round is
just now taking shape as warm advection increases ahead of the
shortwave now lifting from the southern Plains into the lower
Missouri River Valley. Surface low pressure depicted by model
guidance the past few days seems to be associated with well defined
MCV on regional radar currently spinning in far southeast Nebraska.
Showers and thunderstorms should continue to develop from northwest
Missouri to southeast Missouri and lift north through the predawn
hours. Dry slot will push through the southeastern half of the CWA
ahead of the low pressure this morning and early afternoon.  This
will cause the band of warm advection showers and thunderstorms to
steadily march northeast of the CWA. It will also set the stage for
at least some breaks in the cloud cover south of Interstate 70 and
instability to increase this afternoon.

The second round of precipitation today will take shape later this
morning and into the afternoon as the low pressure center traverses
east-southeast across the CWA.  Rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms will accompany the low pressure center (MCV) and
additional thunderstorm development is likely ahead of and to the
south of the surface low. SPC continues to highlight the likelihood
of severe thunderstorm development this afternoon, mainly southeast
of the St. Louis Metro.  Latest explicit model guidance depicts
discrete storm development between 2 PM and 4 PM just south of St.
Louis, with this activity exiting the CWA shortly after 7 PM. Large
hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats with the
supercells this afternoon and early this evening. The threat of
tornadoes is more conditional and will likely hinge on how much
instability can be realized ahead of the low and if the surface
winds can remain backed across this area.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Showers will come to an end from northwest to southeast this
evening and clearing is still expected on Sunday with below normal
temperatures. Rest of the forecast remains unchanged with
temperatures gradually returning to normal by the end of the week
and precipitation chances remaining low.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Aviation overview: A slow-moving low pressure system will move
east-southeast across the region today. Periods of SHRA/TSRA are
expected at all TAF sites at different times of the day depending
on each terminal`s location relative to the track of the low
pressure system. A trailing cold front will then move through the
region tonight behind the departing low pressure system.

Specifics for KCOU: Initially IFR ceilings at TAF issuance should
improve to at least MVFR for several hours before additional
SHRA/TSRA develop during the afternoon. Cigs should eventually
fall back to IFR tonight on the cold side of the cold front.
Initially southeast winds will veer and become southerly to
southwesterly today, then become northeasterly early tonight
behind the cold front.

Specifics for KUIN: Based on upstream trends, prolonged periods
of SHRA/TSRA are expected at KUIN since it will be located north
of the surface low track. One cluster of thunderstorms was located
just upstream from KUIN at TAF issuance, and it should reach the
terminal by 13z. Initial thoughts are that KUIN should be too far
north to be affected by much in the way of afternoon thunderstorm
development, although a few embedded thunderstorms may occur. If
any clearing occurs at KUIN this afternoon, then the resulting
instability will aid thunderstorm development. Initially
southeasterly winds will back and become easterly to northeasterly
today, then remain northeasterly through the end of the TAF
period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: The southern end of a SHRA/TSRA
cluster was approaching St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF
issuance. After the morning convection tapers off, there should be
a dry period lasting several hours before the next round of
thunderstorms develops during the afternoon. After some
improvement during the late morning or early afternoon, cigs are
expected to fall back to MVFR tonight on the cold side of the
cold front. Initially southeasterly winds will veer and become
southerly to southwesterly today, then turn northeasterly early
tonight behind the cold front.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 251213
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
713 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through this Evening)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Well advertised storm system will bring two rounds of showers and
thunderstorms to the CWA over the next 12 hours. The first round is
just now taking shape as warm advection increases ahead of the
shortwave now lifting from the southern Plains into the lower
Missouri River Valley. Surface low pressure depicted by model
guidance the past few days seems to be associated with well defined
MCV on regional radar currently spinning in far southeast Nebraska.
Showers and thunderstorms should continue to develop from northwest
Missouri to southeast Missouri and lift north through the predawn
hours. Dry slot will push through the southeastern half of the CWA
ahead of the low pressure this morning and early afternoon.  This
will cause the band of warm advection showers and thunderstorms to
steadily march northeast of the CWA. It will also set the stage for
at least some breaks in the cloud cover south of Interstate 70 and
instability to increase this afternoon.

The second round of precipitation today will take shape later this
morning and into the afternoon as the low pressure center traverses
east-southeast across the CWA.  Rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms will accompany the low pressure center (MCV) and
additional thunderstorm development is likely ahead of and to the
south of the surface low. SPC continues to highlight the likelihood
of severe thunderstorm development this afternoon, mainly southeast
of the St. Louis Metro.  Latest explicit model guidance depicts
discrete storm development between 2 PM and 4 PM just south of St.
Louis, with this activity exiting the CWA shortly after 7 PM. Large
hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats with the
supercells this afternoon and early this evening. The threat of
tornadoes is more conditional and will likely hinge on how much
instability can be realized ahead of the low and if the surface
winds can remain backed across this area.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Showers will come to an end from northwest to southeast this
evening and clearing is still expected on Sunday with below normal
temperatures. Rest of the forecast remains unchanged with
temperatures gradually returning to normal by the end of the week
and precipitation chances remaining low.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Aviation overview: A slow-moving low pressure system will move
east-southeast across the region today. Periods of SHRA/TSRA are
expected at all TAF sites at different times of the day depending
on each terminal`s location relative to the track of the low
pressure system. A trailing cold front will then move through the
region tonight behind the departing low pressure system.

Specifics for KCOU: Initially IFR ceilings at TAF issuance should
improve to at least MVFR for several hours before additional
SHRA/TSRA develop during the afternoon. Cigs should eventually
fall back to IFR tonight on the cold side of the cold front.
Initially southeast winds will veer and become southerly to
southwesterly today, then become northeasterly early tonight
behind the cold front.

Specifics for KUIN: Based on upstream trends, prolonged periods
of SHRA/TSRA are expected at KUIN since it will be located north
of the surface low track. One cluster of thunderstorms was located
just upstream from KUIN at TAF issuance, and it should reach the
terminal by 13z. Initial thoughts are that KUIN should be too far
north to be affected by much in the way of afternoon thunderstorm
development, although a few embedded thunderstorms may occur. If
any clearing occurs at KUIN this afternoon, then the resulting
instability will aid thunderstorm development. Initially
southeasterly winds will back and become easterly to northeasterly
today, then remain northeasterly through the end of the TAF
period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: The southern end of a SHRA/TSRA
cluster was approaching St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF
issuance. After the morning convection tapers off, there should be
a dry period lasting several hours before the next round of
thunderstorms develops during the afternoon. After some
improvement during the late morning or early afternoon, cigs are
expected to fall back to MVFR tonight on the cold side of the
cold front. Initially southeasterly winds will veer and become
southerly to southwesterly today, then turn northeasterly early
tonight behind the cold front.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 251148
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
648 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A nearly vertically-stacked area of low pressure is located over
northeastern Kansas early this morning.  Showers and thunderstorms
continue to develop and rotate around this feature, but so far, dry
air aloft (evident on water vapor) has limited development across
most of the forecast area this morning.  A few showers/storms have
managed to develop across the periphery of the CWA, and this trend
should continue through daybreak.

As that area of low pressure slowly moves east across central
Missouri today, a cold front will begin to push south toward the
area. Precipitation should generally be confined to areas close to
the surface low, though a brief stray shower isn`t beyond question
along the front.  For the most part, however, the daytime hours
should be dry for the southwestern 2/3 of the forecast area.  The
close proximity of the surface low will also result in a rather
windy day, with west winds sustained between 15 and 20 MPH, with
gusts between 30 and 35 MPH today.  Temperatures today will vary
considerably north to south given variations in cloud cover,
precipitation, and frontal timing, with highs in the upper 60s
across central Missouri, and near 80 across the Arkansas state line.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Sunday should bring cooler and dry conditions, as surface high
pressure noses south into the area. Winds will again be gusty, with
easterly flow gusting up to 25 MPH at times.  Temperatures Sunday
will be on the cool side of seasonable, with highs in the low 60s.

The next chance for precipitation will arrive late Sunday night into
Tuesday, as a slow moving upper level low traverses the southern
Plains.  The Ozarks should be on the northern edge of the
precipitation, with shower/thunderstorm chances confined to areas
southwest of a Pittsburg to Branson line.  Easterly flow at the
surface will help keep temperatures rather cool, with highs in the
low 60s.

By the middle of the week, the upper level pattern will become
increasingly amplified, with a deepening surface trough across New
England and a strengthening surface ridge over the southwestern US
and Intermountain West. This should result in a few days of dry
weather to end the week, with temperatures right around seasonal
averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 648 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Several items will affect area aerodromes today. First off is low
level wind shear transitioning to gusty southwest winds. 12z KSGF
raob indicates 40kt about 1000 feet off the ground and this will
result in low level wind shear quickly transitioning to gusty
southwest winds in the next couple of hours. These winds will
shift to a more westerly component heading into this afternoon as
low pressure moves east across northern Missouri. Rain chances
today look best to the north and east of JLN/SGF/BBG. Heading into
this evening, guidance is hinting strongly at an IFR (possibly
LIFR) stratus deck sinking southward into the region as the
aforementioned low exits to the east/southeast. Have introduced
predominate IFR conditions around/just after 06z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Gagan





000
FXUS63 KSGF 251148
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
648 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A nearly vertically-stacked area of low pressure is located over
northeastern Kansas early this morning.  Showers and thunderstorms
continue to develop and rotate around this feature, but so far, dry
air aloft (evident on water vapor) has limited development across
most of the forecast area this morning.  A few showers/storms have
managed to develop across the periphery of the CWA, and this trend
should continue through daybreak.

As that area of low pressure slowly moves east across central
Missouri today, a cold front will begin to push south toward the
area. Precipitation should generally be confined to areas close to
the surface low, though a brief stray shower isn`t beyond question
along the front.  For the most part, however, the daytime hours
should be dry for the southwestern 2/3 of the forecast area.  The
close proximity of the surface low will also result in a rather
windy day, with west winds sustained between 15 and 20 MPH, with
gusts between 30 and 35 MPH today.  Temperatures today will vary
considerably north to south given variations in cloud cover,
precipitation, and frontal timing, with highs in the upper 60s
across central Missouri, and near 80 across the Arkansas state line.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Sunday should bring cooler and dry conditions, as surface high
pressure noses south into the area. Winds will again be gusty, with
easterly flow gusting up to 25 MPH at times.  Temperatures Sunday
will be on the cool side of seasonable, with highs in the low 60s.

The next chance for precipitation will arrive late Sunday night into
Tuesday, as a slow moving upper level low traverses the southern
Plains.  The Ozarks should be on the northern edge of the
precipitation, with shower/thunderstorm chances confined to areas
southwest of a Pittsburg to Branson line.  Easterly flow at the
surface will help keep temperatures rather cool, with highs in the
low 60s.

By the middle of the week, the upper level pattern will become
increasingly amplified, with a deepening surface trough across New
England and a strengthening surface ridge over the southwestern US
and Intermountain West. This should result in a few days of dry
weather to end the week, with temperatures right around seasonal
averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 648 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Several items will affect area aerodromes today. First off is low
level wind shear transitioning to gusty southwest winds. 12z KSGF
raob indicates 40kt about 1000 feet off the ground and this will
result in low level wind shear quickly transitioning to gusty
southwest winds in the next couple of hours. These winds will
shift to a more westerly component heading into this afternoon as
low pressure moves east across northern Missouri. Rain chances
today look best to the north and east of JLN/SGF/BBG. Heading into
this evening, guidance is hinting strongly at an IFR (possibly
LIFR) stratus deck sinking southward into the region as the
aforementioned low exits to the east/southeast. Have introduced
predominate IFR conditions around/just after 06z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KEAX 251050
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
550 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Remnants of Friday`s severe weather across central Kansas is
currently moving through the area, and is rather weak. Scattered
thunderstorms are located across most of northwest Missouri and
northeast Kansas, but lack of any appreciable instability has kept
these storms from becoming more than a brief shower as they roll
through. Surface analysis around 08z indicates that the surface low
is still to the west of the forecast area, and that is also
represented by general southeasterly surface winds across most of
the area. While the sun is still down these showers will remain
relatively light, but as the day wears on and the mid level trough -
which is currently stacked on top of the aforementioned low just
west of here - rolls through the area more scattered showers will
form. There should be a slightly higher level of instability across
the area today, with the cooler temperatures associated with the mid
level trough overhead. So, some storms could grow tall and produce
some small hail. As the mid level trough moves through, it generally
opens up and loses some of its organization. The areas of low
pressure within the column also become a bit disjointed through the
day, so a traditional cold core thunderstorm/funnel day does not
appear to be in the cards, but a few storms through the day could
produce some small hail, and periods of heavy rain and gusty winds.
The focus for thunderstorm activity will be along a sagging cold
front that will drop south along with the surface low. The enhanced
convergence along that boundary should aid in getting storms fired
up. The boundary will initially be located north of the forecast
area, but by noon should be located along/near Interstate 70. By
tonight the cold front will be located south of the area, with a
surface ridge nosing in. This will effectively scour out the
moisture, and end any precipitation chances, likely by tonight.

With the cool dry air working its way into the area the next few
nights could be chilly, with lows in the upper 30s along the IA/MO
border, and 40s farther south. But with good insolation through the
day highs for the rest of the weekend and into next week will follow
a gradual warming trend, with 60s anticipated through early next
week, then well into the 70s by late next week. With shortwave
ridging over the area, despite the warmer and moister air moving in
through the late part of the week mid level ascent will be lacking
and low level convergence triggers will be absent, thus a dry
forecast is on tap throughout the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 547 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in and around the
aviation terminals through at least the mid morning hours before
moving out of the area. Expect ceilings to bounce between MVFR and
VFR through that time period, with a gradual deterioration to
prevailing MVFR conditions up on frontal passage around 16z. Expect
the stratus to remain over the area through the remainder of the
forecast period. Guidance does suggest that CIGs will come down to
IFR levels late in the forecast period, but for now will keep things
in MVFR.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 251050
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
550 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Remnants of Friday`s severe weather across central Kansas is
currently moving through the area, and is rather weak. Scattered
thunderstorms are located across most of northwest Missouri and
northeast Kansas, but lack of any appreciable instability has kept
these storms from becoming more than a brief shower as they roll
through. Surface analysis around 08z indicates that the surface low
is still to the west of the forecast area, and that is also
represented by general southeasterly surface winds across most of
the area. While the sun is still down these showers will remain
relatively light, but as the day wears on and the mid level trough -
which is currently stacked on top of the aforementioned low just
west of here - rolls through the area more scattered showers will
form. There should be a slightly higher level of instability across
the area today, with the cooler temperatures associated with the mid
level trough overhead. So, some storms could grow tall and produce
some small hail. As the mid level trough moves through, it generally
opens up and loses some of its organization. The areas of low
pressure within the column also become a bit disjointed through the
day, so a traditional cold core thunderstorm/funnel day does not
appear to be in the cards, but a few storms through the day could
produce some small hail, and periods of heavy rain and gusty winds.
The focus for thunderstorm activity will be along a sagging cold
front that will drop south along with the surface low. The enhanced
convergence along that boundary should aid in getting storms fired
up. The boundary will initially be located north of the forecast
area, but by noon should be located along/near Interstate 70. By
tonight the cold front will be located south of the area, with a
surface ridge nosing in. This will effectively scour out the
moisture, and end any precipitation chances, likely by tonight.

With the cool dry air working its way into the area the next few
nights could be chilly, with lows in the upper 30s along the IA/MO
border, and 40s farther south. But with good insolation through the
day highs for the rest of the weekend and into next week will follow
a gradual warming trend, with 60s anticipated through early next
week, then well into the 70s by late next week. With shortwave
ridging over the area, despite the warmer and moister air moving in
through the late part of the week mid level ascent will be lacking
and low level convergence triggers will be absent, thus a dry
forecast is on tap throughout the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 547 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in and around the
aviation terminals through at least the mid morning hours before
moving out of the area. Expect ceilings to bounce between MVFR and
VFR through that time period, with a gradual deterioration to
prevailing MVFR conditions up on frontal passage around 16z. Expect
the stratus to remain over the area through the remainder of the
forecast period. Guidance does suggest that CIGs will come down to
IFR levels late in the forecast period, but for now will keep things
in MVFR.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 251050
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
550 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Remnants of Friday`s severe weather across central Kansas is
currently moving through the area, and is rather weak. Scattered
thunderstorms are located across most of northwest Missouri and
northeast Kansas, but lack of any appreciable instability has kept
these storms from becoming more than a brief shower as they roll
through. Surface analysis around 08z indicates that the surface low
is still to the west of the forecast area, and that is also
represented by general southeasterly surface winds across most of
the area. While the sun is still down these showers will remain
relatively light, but as the day wears on and the mid level trough -
which is currently stacked on top of the aforementioned low just
west of here - rolls through the area more scattered showers will
form. There should be a slightly higher level of instability across
the area today, with the cooler temperatures associated with the mid
level trough overhead. So, some storms could grow tall and produce
some small hail. As the mid level trough moves through, it generally
opens up and loses some of its organization. The areas of low
pressure within the column also become a bit disjointed through the
day, so a traditional cold core thunderstorm/funnel day does not
appear to be in the cards, but a few storms through the day could
produce some small hail, and periods of heavy rain and gusty winds.
The focus for thunderstorm activity will be along a sagging cold
front that will drop south along with the surface low. The enhanced
convergence along that boundary should aid in getting storms fired
up. The boundary will initially be located north of the forecast
area, but by noon should be located along/near Interstate 70. By
tonight the cold front will be located south of the area, with a
surface ridge nosing in. This will effectively scour out the
moisture, and end any precipitation chances, likely by tonight.

With the cool dry air working its way into the area the next few
nights could be chilly, with lows in the upper 30s along the IA/MO
border, and 40s farther south. But with good insolation through the
day highs for the rest of the weekend and into next week will follow
a gradual warming trend, with 60s anticipated through early next
week, then well into the 70s by late next week. With shortwave
ridging over the area, despite the warmer and moister air moving in
through the late part of the week mid level ascent will be lacking
and low level convergence triggers will be absent, thus a dry
forecast is on tap throughout the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 547 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in and around the
aviation terminals through at least the mid morning hours before
moving out of the area. Expect ceilings to bounce between MVFR and
VFR through that time period, with a gradual deterioration to
prevailing MVFR conditions up on frontal passage around 16z. Expect
the stratus to remain over the area through the remainder of the
forecast period. Guidance does suggest that CIGs will come down to
IFR levels late in the forecast period, but for now will keep things
in MVFR.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 251050
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
550 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Remnants of Friday`s severe weather across central Kansas is
currently moving through the area, and is rather weak. Scattered
thunderstorms are located across most of northwest Missouri and
northeast Kansas, but lack of any appreciable instability has kept
these storms from becoming more than a brief shower as they roll
through. Surface analysis around 08z indicates that the surface low
is still to the west of the forecast area, and that is also
represented by general southeasterly surface winds across most of
the area. While the sun is still down these showers will remain
relatively light, but as the day wears on and the mid level trough -
which is currently stacked on top of the aforementioned low just
west of here - rolls through the area more scattered showers will
form. There should be a slightly higher level of instability across
the area today, with the cooler temperatures associated with the mid
level trough overhead. So, some storms could grow tall and produce
some small hail. As the mid level trough moves through, it generally
opens up and loses some of its organization. The areas of low
pressure within the column also become a bit disjointed through the
day, so a traditional cold core thunderstorm/funnel day does not
appear to be in the cards, but a few storms through the day could
produce some small hail, and periods of heavy rain and gusty winds.
The focus for thunderstorm activity will be along a sagging cold
front that will drop south along with the surface low. The enhanced
convergence along that boundary should aid in getting storms fired
up. The boundary will initially be located north of the forecast
area, but by noon should be located along/near Interstate 70. By
tonight the cold front will be located south of the area, with a
surface ridge nosing in. This will effectively scour out the
moisture, and end any precipitation chances, likely by tonight.

With the cool dry air working its way into the area the next few
nights could be chilly, with lows in the upper 30s along the IA/MO
border, and 40s farther south. But with good insolation through the
day highs for the rest of the weekend and into next week will follow
a gradual warming trend, with 60s anticipated through early next
week, then well into the 70s by late next week. With shortwave
ridging over the area, despite the warmer and moister air moving in
through the late part of the week mid level ascent will be lacking
and low level convergence triggers will be absent, thus a dry
forecast is on tap throughout the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 547 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in and around the
aviation terminals through at least the mid morning hours before
moving out of the area. Expect ceilings to bounce between MVFR and
VFR through that time period, with a gradual deterioration to
prevailing MVFR conditions up on frontal passage around 16z. Expect
the stratus to remain over the area through the remainder of the
forecast period. Guidance does suggest that CIGs will come down to
IFR levels late in the forecast period, but for now will keep things
in MVFR.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 250900
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
400 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Remnants of Friday`s severe weather across central Kansas is
currently moving through the area, and is rather weak. Scattered
thunderstorms are located across most of northwest Missouri and
northeast Kansas, but lack of any appreciable instability has kept
these storms from becoming more than a brief shower as they roll
through. Surface analysis around 08z indicates that the surface low
is still to the west of the forecast area, and that is also
represented by general southeasterly surface winds across most of
the area. While the sun is still down these showers will remain
relatively light, but as the day wears on and the mid level trough -
which is currently stacked on top of the aforementioned low just
west of here - rolls through the area more scattered showers will
form. There should be a slightly higher level of instability across
the area today, with the cooler temperatures associated with the mid
level trough overhead. So, some storms could grow tall and produce
some small hail. As the mid level trough moves through, it generally
opens up and loses some of its organization. The areas of low
pressure within the column also become a bit disjointed through the
day, so a traditional cold core thunderstorm/funnel day does not
appear to be in the cards, but a few storms through the day could
produce some small hail, and periods of heavy rain and gusty winds.
The focus for thunderstorm activity will be along a sagging cold
front that will drop south along with the surface low. The enhanced
convergence along that boundary should aid in getting storms fired
up. The boundary will initially be located north of the forecast
area, but by noon should be located along/near Interstate 70. By
tonight the cold front will be located south of the area, with a
surface ridge nosing in. This will effectively scour out the
moisture, and end any precipitation chances, likely by tonight.

With the cool dry air working its way into the area the next few
nights could be chilly, with lows in the upper 30s along the IA/MO
border, and 40s farther south. But with good insolation through the
day highs for the rest of the weekend and into next week will follow
a gradual warming trend, with 60s anticipated through early next
week, then well into the 70s by late next week. With shortwave
ridging over the area, despite the warmer and moister air moving in
through the late part of the week mid level ascent will be lacking
and low level convergence triggers will be absent, thus a dry
forecast is on tap throughout the next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings exist across the area, and anticipate
MVFR to gradually become dominant height with time and persist well
into forecast period. Weakening line of showers and t-storms are
approaching TAF sites, and only anticipate isolated/temporary periods
of thunder near terminals. Otherwise, scattered showers are expected
through sunrise, with gradually decreasing chances during the day
Saturday. Wind directions will steadily change as the low moves
across the area through Saturday evening.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Blair






000
FXUS63 KEAX 250900
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
400 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Remnants of Friday`s severe weather across central Kansas is
currently moving through the area, and is rather weak. Scattered
thunderstorms are located across most of northwest Missouri and
northeast Kansas, but lack of any appreciable instability has kept
these storms from becoming more than a brief shower as they roll
through. Surface analysis around 08z indicates that the surface low
is still to the west of the forecast area, and that is also
represented by general southeasterly surface winds across most of
the area. While the sun is still down these showers will remain
relatively light, but as the day wears on and the mid level trough -
which is currently stacked on top of the aforementioned low just
west of here - rolls through the area more scattered showers will
form. There should be a slightly higher level of instability across
the area today, with the cooler temperatures associated with the mid
level trough overhead. So, some storms could grow tall and produce
some small hail. As the mid level trough moves through, it generally
opens up and loses some of its organization. The areas of low
pressure within the column also become a bit disjointed through the
day, so a traditional cold core thunderstorm/funnel day does not
appear to be in the cards, but a few storms through the day could
produce some small hail, and periods of heavy rain and gusty winds.
The focus for thunderstorm activity will be along a sagging cold
front that will drop south along with the surface low. The enhanced
convergence along that boundary should aid in getting storms fired
up. The boundary will initially be located north of the forecast
area, but by noon should be located along/near Interstate 70. By
tonight the cold front will be located south of the area, with a
surface ridge nosing in. This will effectively scour out the
moisture, and end any precipitation chances, likely by tonight.

With the cool dry air working its way into the area the next few
nights could be chilly, with lows in the upper 30s along the IA/MO
border, and 40s farther south. But with good insolation through the
day highs for the rest of the weekend and into next week will follow
a gradual warming trend, with 60s anticipated through early next
week, then well into the 70s by late next week. With shortwave
ridging over the area, despite the warmer and moister air moving in
through the late part of the week mid level ascent will be lacking
and low level convergence triggers will be absent, thus a dry
forecast is on tap throughout the next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings exist across the area, and anticipate
MVFR to gradually become dominant height with time and persist well
into forecast period. Weakening line of showers and t-storms are
approaching TAF sites, and only anticipate isolated/temporary periods
of thunder near terminals. Otherwise, scattered showers are expected
through sunrise, with gradually decreasing chances during the day
Saturday. Wind directions will steadily change as the low moves
across the area through Saturday evening.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KSGF 250748
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
248 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A nearly vertically-stacked area of low pressure is located over
northeastern Kansas early this morning.  Showers and thunderstorms
continue to develop and rotate around this feature, but so far, dry
air aloft (evident on water vapor) has limited development across
most of the forecast area this morning.  A few showers/storms have
managed to develop across the periphery of the CWA, and this trend
should continue through daybreak.

As that area of low pressure slowly moves east across central
Missouri today, a cold front will begin to push south toward the
area. Precipitation should generally be confined to areas close to
the surface low, though a brief stray shower isn`t beyond question
along the front.  For the most part, however, the daytime hours
should be dry for the southwestern 2/3 of the forecast area.  The
close proximity of the surface low will also result in a rather
windy day, with west winds sustained between 15 and 20 MPH, with
gusts between 30 and 35 MPH today.  Temperatures today will vary
considerably north to south given variations in cloud cover,
precipitation, and frontal timing, with highs in the upper 60s
across central Missouri, and near 80 across the Arkansas state line.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Sunday should bring cooler and dry conditions, as surface high
pressure noses south into the area. Winds will again be gusty, with
easterly flow gusting up to 25 MPH at times.  Temperatures Sunday
will be on the cool side of seasonable, with highs in the low 60s.

The next chance for precipitation will arrive late Sunday night into
Tuesday, as a slow moving upper level low traverses the southern
Plains.  The Ozarks should be on the northern edge of the
precipitation, with shower/thunderstorm chances confined to areas
southwest of a Pittsburg to Branson line.  Easterly flow at the
surface will help keep temperatures rather cool, with highs in the
low 60s.

By the middle of the week, the upper level pattern will become
increasingly amplified, with a deepening surface trough across New
England and a strengthening surface ridge over the southwestern US
and Intermountain West. This should result in a few days of dry
weather to end the week, with temperatures right around seasonal
averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Pilots can expect variable ceilings overnight with intervals of
IFR to VFR with lower ceilings more prevalent at the Springfield
and Branson terminals.  Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop and may impact terminal vicinities.

Gusty southeasterly winds at the surface along with low level
wind shear can also be expected tonight.

Surface winds will shift to the southwest and west on Saturday and
remain gusty as a front pushes across the region. A few showers
and storms may develop Saturday mainly to the east of the terminal
sites.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 250748
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
248 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A nearly vertically-stacked area of low pressure is located over
northeastern Kansas early this morning.  Showers and thunderstorms
continue to develop and rotate around this feature, but so far, dry
air aloft (evident on water vapor) has limited development across
most of the forecast area this morning.  A few showers/storms have
managed to develop across the periphery of the CWA, and this trend
should continue through daybreak.

As that area of low pressure slowly moves east across central
Missouri today, a cold front will begin to push south toward the
area. Precipitation should generally be confined to areas close to
the surface low, though a brief stray shower isn`t beyond question
along the front.  For the most part, however, the daytime hours
should be dry for the southwestern 2/3 of the forecast area.  The
close proximity of the surface low will also result in a rather
windy day, with west winds sustained between 15 and 20 MPH, with
gusts between 30 and 35 MPH today.  Temperatures today will vary
considerably north to south given variations in cloud cover,
precipitation, and frontal timing, with highs in the upper 60s
across central Missouri, and near 80 across the Arkansas state line.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Sunday should bring cooler and dry conditions, as surface high
pressure noses south into the area. Winds will again be gusty, with
easterly flow gusting up to 25 MPH at times.  Temperatures Sunday
will be on the cool side of seasonable, with highs in the low 60s.

The next chance for precipitation will arrive late Sunday night into
Tuesday, as a slow moving upper level low traverses the southern
Plains.  The Ozarks should be on the northern edge of the
precipitation, with shower/thunderstorm chances confined to areas
southwest of a Pittsburg to Branson line.  Easterly flow at the
surface will help keep temperatures rather cool, with highs in the
low 60s.

By the middle of the week, the upper level pattern will become
increasingly amplified, with a deepening surface trough across New
England and a strengthening surface ridge over the southwestern US
and Intermountain West. This should result in a few days of dry
weather to end the week, with temperatures right around seasonal
averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Pilots can expect variable ceilings overnight with intervals of
IFR to VFR with lower ceilings more prevalent at the Springfield
and Branson terminals.  Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop and may impact terminal vicinities.

Gusty southeasterly winds at the surface along with low level
wind shear can also be expected tonight.

Surface winds will shift to the southwest and west on Saturday and
remain gusty as a front pushes across the region. A few showers
and storms may develop Saturday mainly to the east of the terminal
sites.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Foster






000
FXUS63 KSGF 250748
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
248 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A nearly vertically-stacked area of low pressure is located over
northeastern Kansas early this morning.  Showers and thunderstorms
continue to develop and rotate around this feature, but so far, dry
air aloft (evident on water vapor) has limited development across
most of the forecast area this morning.  A few showers/storms have
managed to develop across the periphery of the CWA, and this trend
should continue through daybreak.

As that area of low pressure slowly moves east across central
Missouri today, a cold front will begin to push south toward the
area. Precipitation should generally be confined to areas close to
the surface low, though a brief stray shower isn`t beyond question
along the front.  For the most part, however, the daytime hours
should be dry for the southwestern 2/3 of the forecast area.  The
close proximity of the surface low will also result in a rather
windy day, with west winds sustained between 15 and 20 MPH, with
gusts between 30 and 35 MPH today.  Temperatures today will vary
considerably north to south given variations in cloud cover,
precipitation, and frontal timing, with highs in the upper 60s
across central Missouri, and near 80 across the Arkansas state line.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Sunday should bring cooler and dry conditions, as surface high
pressure noses south into the area. Winds will again be gusty, with
easterly flow gusting up to 25 MPH at times.  Temperatures Sunday
will be on the cool side of seasonable, with highs in the low 60s.

The next chance for precipitation will arrive late Sunday night into
Tuesday, as a slow moving upper level low traverses the southern
Plains.  The Ozarks should be on the northern edge of the
precipitation, with shower/thunderstorm chances confined to areas
southwest of a Pittsburg to Branson line.  Easterly flow at the
surface will help keep temperatures rather cool, with highs in the
low 60s.

By the middle of the week, the upper level pattern will become
increasingly amplified, with a deepening surface trough across New
England and a strengthening surface ridge over the southwestern US
and Intermountain West. This should result in a few days of dry
weather to end the week, with temperatures right around seasonal
averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Pilots can expect variable ceilings overnight with intervals of
IFR to VFR with lower ceilings more prevalent at the Springfield
and Branson terminals.  Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop and may impact terminal vicinities.

Gusty southeasterly winds at the surface along with low level
wind shear can also be expected tonight.

Surface winds will shift to the southwest and west on Saturday and
remain gusty as a front pushes across the region. A few showers
and storms may develop Saturday mainly to the east of the terminal
sites.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 250748
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
248 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A nearly vertically-stacked area of low pressure is located over
northeastern Kansas early this morning.  Showers and thunderstorms
continue to develop and rotate around this feature, but so far, dry
air aloft (evident on water vapor) has limited development across
most of the forecast area this morning.  A few showers/storms have
managed to develop across the periphery of the CWA, and this trend
should continue through daybreak.

As that area of low pressure slowly moves east across central
Missouri today, a cold front will begin to push south toward the
area. Precipitation should generally be confined to areas close to
the surface low, though a brief stray shower isn`t beyond question
along the front.  For the most part, however, the daytime hours
should be dry for the southwestern 2/3 of the forecast area.  The
close proximity of the surface low will also result in a rather
windy day, with west winds sustained between 15 and 20 MPH, with
gusts between 30 and 35 MPH today.  Temperatures today will vary
considerably north to south given variations in cloud cover,
precipitation, and frontal timing, with highs in the upper 60s
across central Missouri, and near 80 across the Arkansas state line.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Sunday should bring cooler and dry conditions, as surface high
pressure noses south into the area. Winds will again be gusty, with
easterly flow gusting up to 25 MPH at times.  Temperatures Sunday
will be on the cool side of seasonable, with highs in the low 60s.

The next chance for precipitation will arrive late Sunday night into
Tuesday, as a slow moving upper level low traverses the southern
Plains.  The Ozarks should be on the northern edge of the
precipitation, with shower/thunderstorm chances confined to areas
southwest of a Pittsburg to Branson line.  Easterly flow at the
surface will help keep temperatures rather cool, with highs in the
low 60s.

By the middle of the week, the upper level pattern will become
increasingly amplified, with a deepening surface trough across New
England and a strengthening surface ridge over the southwestern US
and Intermountain West. This should result in a few days of dry
weather to end the week, with temperatures right around seasonal
averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Pilots can expect variable ceilings overnight with intervals of
IFR to VFR with lower ceilings more prevalent at the Springfield
and Branson terminals.  Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop and may impact terminal vicinities.

Gusty southeasterly winds at the surface along with low level
wind shear can also be expected tonight.

Surface winds will shift to the southwest and west on Saturday and
remain gusty as a front pushes across the region. A few showers
and storms may develop Saturday mainly to the east of the terminal
sites.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Foster






000
FXUS63 KLSX 250741
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
241 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through this Evening)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Well advertised storm system will bring two rounds of showers and
thunderstorms to the CWA over the next 12 hours. The first round is
just now taking shape as warm advection increases ahead of the
shortwave now lifting from the southern Plains into the lower
Missouri River Valley. Surface low pressure depticted by model
guidance the past few days seems to be associated with well defined
MCV on regional radar currently spinning in far southeast Nebraska.
Showers and thunderstorms should continue to develop from northwest
Missouri to southeast Missouri and lift north through the predawn
hours. Dry slot will push through the southeastern half of the CWA
ahead of the low pressure this morning and early afternoon.  This
will cause the band of warm advection showers and thunderstorms to
steadily march northeast of the CWA. It will also set the stage for
at least some breaks in the cloud cover south of Interstate 70 and
instability to increase this afternoon.

The second round of precipitation today will take shape later this
morning and into the afternoon as the low pressure center traverses
east-southeast across the CWA.  Rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms will accompany the low pressure center (MCV) and
additional thunderstorm development is likely ahead of and to the
south of the surface low. SPC continues to highlight the likelihood
of severe thunderstorm development this afternoon, mainly southeast
of the St. Louis Metro.  Latest explicit model guidance depicts
descrete storm development between 2 PM and 4 PM just south of St.
Louis, with this activity exiting the CWA shortly after 7 PM. Large
hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats with the
supercells this afternoon and early this evening. The threat of
tornadoes is more conditional and will likely hinge on how much
instability can be realized ahead of the low and if the surface
winds can remain backed across this area.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Showers will come to an end from northwest to southeast this
evening and clearing is still expected on Sunday with below normal
temperatures. Rest of the forecast remains unchanged with
temperatures gradually returning to normal by the end of the week
and precipitation chances remaining low.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

MVFR cigs are in the process of overspreading the CWA attm...and
latest MET and MAV MOS still strongly suggest that this
deterioration will continue into IFR cigs during the predawn
hours as the persistent low level WAA increases the low level
moisture in the region. A few hit and miss showers have formed
over NE MO the last couple of hours, with the anticipation that
there will be a general increase in coverage of showers...as well
as thunderstorms...during the predawn hours as forcing via low
level jet and upper level low ramp up the vertical motion across
the Mississippi Valley. 00z guidance is a bit further south with
track of low, which would keep UIN in IFR conditions and precip throughout
the day, with only limited improvement at KCOU and the STL metro
area. Still appears that there will be a narrow window for
redevelopment of thunderstorms in the STL area during the early
afternoon, and have continued to highlight with VCTS attm.

Specifics for KSTL: Ceiings expected to drop below 1000 feet
during the predawn hours, with showers and a few thunderstorms
developing by around 09z. Anticipate that the early morning
convection will advect out of the region during the early morning,
with ceilings slowly improving to MVFR as surface low works into
the area from mid MO. Have maintained a mention of some
thunderstorm redevelopment during the early afternoon in the form
of VCTS...hoping later shifts will be able to refine the location
and intensity of this redevelopment.

Truett

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     70  47  62  41 /  80  70   0   0
Quincy          58  40  60  38 /  80  40   0   0
Columbia        68  45  62  39 /  70  30   0   5
Jefferson City  71  46  62  41 /  70  30   5   5
Salem           65  46  61  39 /  80  70   0   0
Farmington      75  48  61  39 /  60  40   5   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 250741
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
241 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through this Evening)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Well advertised storm system will bring two rounds of showers and
thunderstorms to the CWA over the next 12 hours. The first round is
just now taking shape as warm advection increases ahead of the
shortwave now lifting from the southern Plains into the lower
Missouri River Valley. Surface low pressure depticted by model
guidance the past few days seems to be associated with well defined
MCV on regional radar currently spinning in far southeast Nebraska.
Showers and thunderstorms should continue to develop from northwest
Missouri to southeast Missouri and lift north through the predawn
hours. Dry slot will push through the southeastern half of the CWA
ahead of the low pressure this morning and early afternoon.  This
will cause the band of warm advection showers and thunderstorms to
steadily march northeast of the CWA. It will also set the stage for
at least some breaks in the cloud cover south of Interstate 70 and
instability to increase this afternoon.

The second round of precipitation today will take shape later this
morning and into the afternoon as the low pressure center traverses
east-southeast across the CWA.  Rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms will accompany the low pressure center (MCV) and
additional thunderstorm development is likely ahead of and to the
south of the surface low. SPC continues to highlight the likelihood
of severe thunderstorm development this afternoon, mainly southeast
of the St. Louis Metro.  Latest explicit model guidance depicts
descrete storm development between 2 PM and 4 PM just south of St.
Louis, with this activity exiting the CWA shortly after 7 PM. Large
hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats with the
supercells this afternoon and early this evening. The threat of
tornadoes is more conditional and will likely hinge on how much
instability can be realized ahead of the low and if the surface
winds can remain backed across this area.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Showers will come to an end from northwest to southeast this
evening and clearing is still expected on Sunday with below normal
temperatures. Rest of the forecast remains unchanged with
temperatures gradually returning to normal by the end of the week
and precipitation chances remaining low.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

MVFR cigs are in the process of overspreading the CWA attm...and
latest MET and MAV MOS still strongly suggest that this
deterioration will continue into IFR cigs during the predawn
hours as the persistent low level WAA increases the low level
moisture in the region. A few hit and miss showers have formed
over NE MO the last couple of hours, with the anticipation that
there will be a general increase in coverage of showers...as well
as thunderstorms...during the predawn hours as forcing via low
level jet and upper level low ramp up the vertical motion across
the Mississippi Valley. 00z guidance is a bit further south with
track of low, which would keep UIN in IFR conditions and precip throughout
the day, with only limited improvement at KCOU and the STL metro
area. Still appears that there will be a narrow window for
redevelopment of thunderstorms in the STL area during the early
afternoon, and have continued to highlight with VCTS attm.

Specifics for KSTL: Ceiings expected to drop below 1000 feet
during the predawn hours, with showers and a few thunderstorms
developing by around 09z. Anticipate that the early morning
convection will advect out of the region during the early morning,
with ceilings slowly improving to MVFR as surface low works into
the area from mid MO. Have maintained a mention of some
thunderstorm redevelopment during the early afternoon in the form
of VCTS...hoping later shifts will be able to refine the location
and intensity of this redevelopment.

Truett

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     70  47  62  41 /  80  70   0   0
Quincy          58  40  60  38 /  80  40   0   0
Columbia        68  45  62  39 /  70  30   0   5
Jefferson City  71  46  62  41 /  70  30   5   5
Salem           65  46  61  39 /  80  70   0   0
Farmington      75  48  61  39 /  60  40   5   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 250741
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
241 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through this Evening)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Well advertised storm system will bring two rounds of showers and
thunderstorms to the CWA over the next 12 hours. The first round is
just now taking shape as warm advection increases ahead of the
shortwave now lifting from the southern Plains into the lower
Missouri River Valley. Surface low pressure depticted by model
guidance the past few days seems to be associated with well defined
MCV on regional radar currently spinning in far southeast Nebraska.
Showers and thunderstorms should continue to develop from northwest
Missouri to southeast Missouri and lift north through the predawn
hours. Dry slot will push through the southeastern half of the CWA
ahead of the low pressure this morning and early afternoon.  This
will cause the band of warm advection showers and thunderstorms to
steadily march northeast of the CWA. It will also set the stage for
at least some breaks in the cloud cover south of Interstate 70 and
instability to increase this afternoon.

The second round of precipitation today will take shape later this
morning and into the afternoon as the low pressure center traverses
east-southeast across the CWA.  Rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms will accompany the low pressure center (MCV) and
additional thunderstorm development is likely ahead of and to the
south of the surface low. SPC continues to highlight the likelihood
of severe thunderstorm development this afternoon, mainly southeast
of the St. Louis Metro.  Latest explicit model guidance depicts
descrete storm development between 2 PM and 4 PM just south of St.
Louis, with this activity exiting the CWA shortly after 7 PM. Large
hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats with the
supercells this afternoon and early this evening. The threat of
tornadoes is more conditional and will likely hinge on how much
instability can be realized ahead of the low and if the surface
winds can remain backed across this area.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Showers will come to an end from northwest to southeast this
evening and clearing is still expected on Sunday with below normal
temperatures. Rest of the forecast remains unchanged with
temperatures gradually returning to normal by the end of the week
and precipitation chances remaining low.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

MVFR cigs are in the process of overspreading the CWA attm...and
latest MET and MAV MOS still strongly suggest that this
deterioration will continue into IFR cigs during the predawn
hours as the persistent low level WAA increases the low level
moisture in the region. A few hit and miss showers have formed
over NE MO the last couple of hours, with the anticipation that
there will be a general increase in coverage of showers...as well
as thunderstorms...during the predawn hours as forcing via low
level jet and upper level low ramp up the vertical motion across
the Mississippi Valley. 00z guidance is a bit further south with
track of low, which would keep UIN in IFR conditions and precip throughout
the day, with only limited improvement at KCOU and the STL metro
area. Still appears that there will be a narrow window for
redevelopment of thunderstorms in the STL area during the early
afternoon, and have continued to highlight with VCTS attm.

Specifics for KSTL: Ceiings expected to drop below 1000 feet
during the predawn hours, with showers and a few thunderstorms
developing by around 09z. Anticipate that the early morning
convection will advect out of the region during the early morning,
with ceilings slowly improving to MVFR as surface low works into
the area from mid MO. Have maintained a mention of some
thunderstorm redevelopment during the early afternoon in the form
of VCTS...hoping later shifts will be able to refine the location
and intensity of this redevelopment.

Truett

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     70  47  62  41 /  80  70   0   0
Quincy          58  40  60  38 /  80  40   0   0
Columbia        68  45  62  39 /  70  30   0   5
Jefferson City  71  46  62  41 /  70  30   5   5
Salem           65  46  61  39 /  80  70   0   0
Farmington      75  48  61  39 /  60  40   5   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 250741
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
241 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through this Evening)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Well advertised storm system will bring two rounds of showers and
thunderstorms to the CWA over the next 12 hours. The first round is
just now taking shape as warm advection increases ahead of the
shortwave now lifting from the southern Plains into the lower
Missouri River Valley. Surface low pressure depticted by model
guidance the past few days seems to be associated with well defined
MCV on regional radar currently spinning in far southeast Nebraska.
Showers and thunderstorms should continue to develop from northwest
Missouri to southeast Missouri and lift north through the predawn
hours. Dry slot will push through the southeastern half of the CWA
ahead of the low pressure this morning and early afternoon.  This
will cause the band of warm advection showers and thunderstorms to
steadily march northeast of the CWA. It will also set the stage for
at least some breaks in the cloud cover south of Interstate 70 and
instability to increase this afternoon.

The second round of precipitation today will take shape later this
morning and into the afternoon as the low pressure center traverses
east-southeast across the CWA.  Rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms will accompany the low pressure center (MCV) and
additional thunderstorm development is likely ahead of and to the
south of the surface low. SPC continues to highlight the likelihood
of severe thunderstorm development this afternoon, mainly southeast
of the St. Louis Metro.  Latest explicit model guidance depicts
descrete storm development between 2 PM and 4 PM just south of St.
Louis, with this activity exiting the CWA shortly after 7 PM. Large
hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats with the
supercells this afternoon and early this evening. The threat of
tornadoes is more conditional and will likely hinge on how much
instability can be realized ahead of the low and if the surface
winds can remain backed across this area.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Showers will come to an end from northwest to southeast this
evening and clearing is still expected on Sunday with below normal
temperatures. Rest of the forecast remains unchanged with
temperatures gradually returning to normal by the end of the week
and precipitation chances remaining low.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

MVFR cigs are in the process of overspreading the CWA attm...and
latest MET and MAV MOS still strongly suggest that this
deterioration will continue into IFR cigs during the predawn
hours as the persistent low level WAA increases the low level
moisture in the region. A few hit and miss showers have formed
over NE MO the last couple of hours, with the anticipation that
there will be a general increase in coverage of showers...as well
as thunderstorms...during the predawn hours as forcing via low
level jet and upper level low ramp up the vertical motion across
the Mississippi Valley. 00z guidance is a bit further south with
track of low, which would keep UIN in IFR conditions and precip throughout
the day, with only limited improvement at KCOU and the STL metro
area. Still appears that there will be a narrow window for
redevelopment of thunderstorms in the STL area during the early
afternoon, and have continued to highlight with VCTS attm.

Specifics for KSTL: Ceiings expected to drop below 1000 feet
during the predawn hours, with showers and a few thunderstorms
developing by around 09z. Anticipate that the early morning
convection will advect out of the region during the early morning,
with ceilings slowly improving to MVFR as surface low works into
the area from mid MO. Have maintained a mention of some
thunderstorm redevelopment during the early afternoon in the form
of VCTS...hoping later shifts will be able to refine the location
and intensity of this redevelopment.

Truett

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     70  47  62  41 /  80  70   0   0
Quincy          58  40  60  38 /  80  40   0   0
Columbia        68  45  62  39 /  70  30   0   5
Jefferson City  71  46  62  41 /  70  30   5   5
Salem           65  46  61  39 /  80  70   0   0
Farmington      75  48  61  39 /  60  40   5   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 250511
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1211 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Convection remained well to the west from northeastern into south
central Kansas at late evening. This activity will migrate eastward
overnight as the mid level shortwave moves across the central
Plains and an upper level jet streak shifts across the Ozarks.
What is left of the Kansas convection may impact portions of
southeastern Kansas into west central Missouri overnight. Also additional
scattered convection could develop across the Missouri Ozarks and
particularly the eastern Ozarks on the advancing edge of the mid
level dry slot and as the low level jet veers. Overall it looks as
if convection will be scattered in nature overnight. Instability
is lacking so the risk for any severe is limited at best.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Showers/Thunderstorms which developed in a band of isentropic
upglide earlier this morning have pretty much ended across the
area with only a few light showers remaining over central MO. In
the wake of the precipitation, cloud cover has persisted and has
kept temperatures in the low to mid 50s over parts of south
central MO to the upper 50s and low 60s across much of the
remainder of the CWA. Only the far western CWA has seen
temperatures reach the upper 60s to low 70s so far. Dew points
have been slow to increase as well with readings from the mid 40s
in the eastern Ozarks to the low 60s in the far western CWA.

Main forecast focus will be with thunderstorm/severe weather chances
tonight into Saturday as an upper level wave and cold front push
through the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Persistent cloud cover has held back instability today over the
forecast area, but was starting to increase across the central and
southern Plains ahead of a dryline. Some convection already noted
over southwest Oklahoma ahead of the dryline. Short term models
begin to break out convection well to the west in central Kansas
by 3 to 4 pm and take this activity eastward into northern and
central MO during the evening. This activity may affect extreme
southeast Kansas into west central and central MO by mid to late
evening. In addition, the convection developing in southern
Oklahoma into northeast Texas will shift may make it up into south
central MO this evening.

The area becomes dry slotted by late in the evening and overnight
across the area with main area of convection to the north and
south of the area.

Another slight chance of severe storms will occur ahead of a cold
front over the eastern Ozarks Saturday afternoon. The bulk of the
convection and severe chances are expected to be east of our area
on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

After dry conditions on Saturday night into Sunday, an upper low
pressure system will slowly track eastward across the southern
Plains and eventually over the forecast area by early next week.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible as this area
of upper low pressure shifts towards and over the region.

Upper level ridge will begin to work into the area by the middle
of next week with the upper level energy shifting southeast of the
area. Warmer and drier conditions are expected from the middle to
later portion of the upcoming work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Pilots can expect variable ceilings overnight with intervals of
IFR to VFR with lower ceilings more prevalent at the Springfield
and Branson terminals.  Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop and may impact terminal vicinities.

Gusty southeasterly winds at the surface along with low level
wind shear can also be expected tonight.

Surface winds will shift to the southwest and west on Saturday and
remain gusty as a front pushes across the region. A few showers
and storms may develop Saturday mainly to the east of the terminal
sites.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Foster
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 250511
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1211 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Convection remained well to the west from northeastern into south
central Kansas at late evening. This activity will migrate eastward
overnight as the mid level shortwave moves across the central
Plains and an upper level jet streak shifts across the Ozarks.
What is left of the Kansas convection may impact portions of
southeastern Kansas into west central Missouri overnight. Also additional
scattered convection could develop across the Missouri Ozarks and
particularly the eastern Ozarks on the advancing edge of the mid
level dry slot and as the low level jet veers. Overall it looks as
if convection will be scattered in nature overnight. Instability
is lacking so the risk for any severe is limited at best.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Showers/Thunderstorms which developed in a band of isentropic
upglide earlier this morning have pretty much ended across the
area with only a few light showers remaining over central MO. In
the wake of the precipitation, cloud cover has persisted and has
kept temperatures in the low to mid 50s over parts of south
central MO to the upper 50s and low 60s across much of the
remainder of the CWA. Only the far western CWA has seen
temperatures reach the upper 60s to low 70s so far. Dew points
have been slow to increase as well with readings from the mid 40s
in the eastern Ozarks to the low 60s in the far western CWA.

Main forecast focus will be with thunderstorm/severe weather chances
tonight into Saturday as an upper level wave and cold front push
through the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Persistent cloud cover has held back instability today over the
forecast area, but was starting to increase across the central and
southern Plains ahead of a dryline. Some convection already noted
over southwest Oklahoma ahead of the dryline. Short term models
begin to break out convection well to the west in central Kansas
by 3 to 4 pm and take this activity eastward into northern and
central MO during the evening. This activity may affect extreme
southeast Kansas into west central and central MO by mid to late
evening. In addition, the convection developing in southern
Oklahoma into northeast Texas will shift may make it up into south
central MO this evening.

The area becomes dry slotted by late in the evening and overnight
across the area with main area of convection to the north and
south of the area.

Another slight chance of severe storms will occur ahead of a cold
front over the eastern Ozarks Saturday afternoon. The bulk of the
convection and severe chances are expected to be east of our area
on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

After dry conditions on Saturday night into Sunday, an upper low
pressure system will slowly track eastward across the southern
Plains and eventually over the forecast area by early next week.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible as this area
of upper low pressure shifts towards and over the region.

Upper level ridge will begin to work into the area by the middle
of next week with the upper level energy shifting southeast of the
area. Warmer and drier conditions are expected from the middle to
later portion of the upcoming work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Pilots can expect variable ceilings overnight with intervals of
IFR to VFR with lower ceilings more prevalent at the Springfield
and Branson terminals.  Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop and may impact terminal vicinities.

Gusty southeasterly winds at the surface along with low level
wind shear can also be expected tonight.

Surface winds will shift to the southwest and west on Saturday and
remain gusty as a front pushes across the region. A few showers
and storms may develop Saturday mainly to the east of the terminal
sites.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Foster
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 250511
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1211 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Convection remained well to the west from northeastern into south
central Kansas at late evening. This activity will migrate eastward
overnight as the mid level shortwave moves across the central
Plains and an upper level jet streak shifts across the Ozarks.
What is left of the Kansas convection may impact portions of
southeastern Kansas into west central Missouri overnight. Also additional
scattered convection could develop across the Missouri Ozarks and
particularly the eastern Ozarks on the advancing edge of the mid
level dry slot and as the low level jet veers. Overall it looks as
if convection will be scattered in nature overnight. Instability
is lacking so the risk for any severe is limited at best.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Showers/Thunderstorms which developed in a band of isentropic
upglide earlier this morning have pretty much ended across the
area with only a few light showers remaining over central MO. In
the wake of the precipitation, cloud cover has persisted and has
kept temperatures in the low to mid 50s over parts of south
central MO to the upper 50s and low 60s across much of the
remainder of the CWA. Only the far western CWA has seen
temperatures reach the upper 60s to low 70s so far. Dew points
have been slow to increase as well with readings from the mid 40s
in the eastern Ozarks to the low 60s in the far western CWA.

Main forecast focus will be with thunderstorm/severe weather chances
tonight into Saturday as an upper level wave and cold front push
through the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Persistent cloud cover has held back instability today over the
forecast area, but was starting to increase across the central and
southern Plains ahead of a dryline. Some convection already noted
over southwest Oklahoma ahead of the dryline. Short term models
begin to break out convection well to the west in central Kansas
by 3 to 4 pm and take this activity eastward into northern and
central MO during the evening. This activity may affect extreme
southeast Kansas into west central and central MO by mid to late
evening. In addition, the convection developing in southern
Oklahoma into northeast Texas will shift may make it up into south
central MO this evening.

The area becomes dry slotted by late in the evening and overnight
across the area with main area of convection to the north and
south of the area.

Another slight chance of severe storms will occur ahead of a cold
front over the eastern Ozarks Saturday afternoon. The bulk of the
convection and severe chances are expected to be east of our area
on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

After dry conditions on Saturday night into Sunday, an upper low
pressure system will slowly track eastward across the southern
Plains and eventually over the forecast area by early next week.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible as this area
of upper low pressure shifts towards and over the region.

Upper level ridge will begin to work into the area by the middle
of next week with the upper level energy shifting southeast of the
area. Warmer and drier conditions are expected from the middle to
later portion of the upcoming work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Pilots can expect variable ceilings overnight with intervals of
IFR to VFR with lower ceilings more prevalent at the Springfield
and Branson terminals.  Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop and may impact terminal vicinities.

Gusty southeasterly winds at the surface along with low level
wind shear can also be expected tonight.

Surface winds will shift to the southwest and west on Saturday and
remain gusty as a front pushes across the region. A few showers
and storms may develop Saturday mainly to the east of the terminal
sites.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Foster
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 250511
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1211 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Convection remained well to the west from northeastern into south
central Kansas at late evening. This activity will migrate eastward
overnight as the mid level shortwave moves across the central
Plains and an upper level jet streak shifts across the Ozarks.
What is left of the Kansas convection may impact portions of
southeastern Kansas into west central Missouri overnight. Also additional
scattered convection could develop across the Missouri Ozarks and
particularly the eastern Ozarks on the advancing edge of the mid
level dry slot and as the low level jet veers. Overall it looks as
if convection will be scattered in nature overnight. Instability
is lacking so the risk for any severe is limited at best.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Showers/Thunderstorms which developed in a band of isentropic
upglide earlier this morning have pretty much ended across the
area with only a few light showers remaining over central MO. In
the wake of the precipitation, cloud cover has persisted and has
kept temperatures in the low to mid 50s over parts of south
central MO to the upper 50s and low 60s across much of the
remainder of the CWA. Only the far western CWA has seen
temperatures reach the upper 60s to low 70s so far. Dew points
have been slow to increase as well with readings from the mid 40s
in the eastern Ozarks to the low 60s in the far western CWA.

Main forecast focus will be with thunderstorm/severe weather chances
tonight into Saturday as an upper level wave and cold front push
through the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Persistent cloud cover has held back instability today over the
forecast area, but was starting to increase across the central and
southern Plains ahead of a dryline. Some convection already noted
over southwest Oklahoma ahead of the dryline. Short term models
begin to break out convection well to the west in central Kansas
by 3 to 4 pm and take this activity eastward into northern and
central MO during the evening. This activity may affect extreme
southeast Kansas into west central and central MO by mid to late
evening. In addition, the convection developing in southern
Oklahoma into northeast Texas will shift may make it up into south
central MO this evening.

The area becomes dry slotted by late in the evening and overnight
across the area with main area of convection to the north and
south of the area.

Another slight chance of severe storms will occur ahead of a cold
front over the eastern Ozarks Saturday afternoon. The bulk of the
convection and severe chances are expected to be east of our area
on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

After dry conditions on Saturday night into Sunday, an upper low
pressure system will slowly track eastward across the southern
Plains and eventually over the forecast area by early next week.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible as this area
of upper low pressure shifts towards and over the region.

Upper level ridge will begin to work into the area by the middle
of next week with the upper level energy shifting southeast of the
area. Warmer and drier conditions are expected from the middle to
later portion of the upcoming work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Pilots can expect variable ceilings overnight with intervals of
IFR to VFR with lower ceilings more prevalent at the Springfield
and Branson terminals.  Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop and may impact terminal vicinities.

Gusty southeasterly winds at the surface along with low level
wind shear can also be expected tonight.

Surface winds will shift to the southwest and west on Saturday and
remain gusty as a front pushes across the region. A few showers
and storms may develop Saturday mainly to the east of the terminal
sites.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Foster
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 250511
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1211 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Convection remained well to the west from northeastern into south
central Kansas at late evening. This activity will migrate eastward
overnight as the mid level shortwave moves across the central
Plains and an upper level jet streak shifts across the Ozarks.
What is left of the Kansas convection may impact portions of
southeastern Kansas into west central Missouri overnight. Also additional
scattered convection could develop across the Missouri Ozarks and
particularly the eastern Ozarks on the advancing edge of the mid
level dry slot and as the low level jet veers. Overall it looks as
if convection will be scattered in nature overnight. Instability
is lacking so the risk for any severe is limited at best.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Showers/Thunderstorms which developed in a band of isentropic
upglide earlier this morning have pretty much ended across the
area with only a few light showers remaining over central MO. In
the wake of the precipitation, cloud cover has persisted and has
kept temperatures in the low to mid 50s over parts of south
central MO to the upper 50s and low 60s across much of the
remainder of the CWA. Only the far western CWA has seen
temperatures reach the upper 60s to low 70s so far. Dew points
have been slow to increase as well with readings from the mid 40s
in the eastern Ozarks to the low 60s in the far western CWA.

Main forecast focus will be with thunderstorm/severe weather chances
tonight into Saturday as an upper level wave and cold front push
through the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Persistent cloud cover has held back instability today over the
forecast area, but was starting to increase across the central and
southern Plains ahead of a dryline. Some convection already noted
over southwest Oklahoma ahead of the dryline. Short term models
begin to break out convection well to the west in central Kansas
by 3 to 4 pm and take this activity eastward into northern and
central MO during the evening. This activity may affect extreme
southeast Kansas into west central and central MO by mid to late
evening. In addition, the convection developing in southern
Oklahoma into northeast Texas will shift may make it up into south
central MO this evening.

The area becomes dry slotted by late in the evening and overnight
across the area with main area of convection to the north and
south of the area.

Another slight chance of severe storms will occur ahead of a cold
front over the eastern Ozarks Saturday afternoon. The bulk of the
convection and severe chances are expected to be east of our area
on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

After dry conditions on Saturday night into Sunday, an upper low
pressure system will slowly track eastward across the southern
Plains and eventually over the forecast area by early next week.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible as this area
of upper low pressure shifts towards and over the region.

Upper level ridge will begin to work into the area by the middle
of next week with the upper level energy shifting southeast of the
area. Warmer and drier conditions are expected from the middle to
later portion of the upcoming work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Pilots can expect variable ceilings overnight with intervals of
IFR to VFR with lower ceilings more prevalent at the Springfield
and Branson terminals.  Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop and may impact terminal vicinities.

Gusty southeasterly winds at the surface along with low level
wind shear can also be expected tonight.

Surface winds will shift to the southwest and west on Saturday and
remain gusty as a front pushes across the region. A few showers
and storms may develop Saturday mainly to the east of the terminal
sites.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Foster
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster






000
FXUS63 KSGF 250511
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1211 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Convection remained well to the west from northeastern into south
central Kansas at late evening. This activity will migrate eastward
overnight as the mid level shortwave moves across the central
Plains and an upper level jet streak shifts across the Ozarks.
What is left of the Kansas convection may impact portions of
southeastern Kansas into west central Missouri overnight. Also additional
scattered convection could develop across the Missouri Ozarks and
particularly the eastern Ozarks on the advancing edge of the mid
level dry slot and as the low level jet veers. Overall it looks as
if convection will be scattered in nature overnight. Instability
is lacking so the risk for any severe is limited at best.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Showers/Thunderstorms which developed in a band of isentropic
upglide earlier this morning have pretty much ended across the
area with only a few light showers remaining over central MO. In
the wake of the precipitation, cloud cover has persisted and has
kept temperatures in the low to mid 50s over parts of south
central MO to the upper 50s and low 60s across much of the
remainder of the CWA. Only the far western CWA has seen
temperatures reach the upper 60s to low 70s so far. Dew points
have been slow to increase as well with readings from the mid 40s
in the eastern Ozarks to the low 60s in the far western CWA.

Main forecast focus will be with thunderstorm/severe weather chances
tonight into Saturday as an upper level wave and cold front push
through the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Persistent cloud cover has held back instability today over the
forecast area, but was starting to increase across the central and
southern Plains ahead of a dryline. Some convection already noted
over southwest Oklahoma ahead of the dryline. Short term models
begin to break out convection well to the west in central Kansas
by 3 to 4 pm and take this activity eastward into northern and
central MO during the evening. This activity may affect extreme
southeast Kansas into west central and central MO by mid to late
evening. In addition, the convection developing in southern
Oklahoma into northeast Texas will shift may make it up into south
central MO this evening.

The area becomes dry slotted by late in the evening and overnight
across the area with main area of convection to the north and
south of the area.

Another slight chance of severe storms will occur ahead of a cold
front over the eastern Ozarks Saturday afternoon. The bulk of the
convection and severe chances are expected to be east of our area
on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

After dry conditions on Saturday night into Sunday, an upper low
pressure system will slowly track eastward across the southern
Plains and eventually over the forecast area by early next week.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible as this area
of upper low pressure shifts towards and over the region.

Upper level ridge will begin to work into the area by the middle
of next week with the upper level energy shifting southeast of the
area. Warmer and drier conditions are expected from the middle to
later portion of the upcoming work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Pilots can expect variable ceilings overnight with intervals of
IFR to VFR with lower ceilings more prevalent at the Springfield
and Branson terminals.  Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop and may impact terminal vicinities.

Gusty southeasterly winds at the surface along with low level
wind shear can also be expected tonight.

Surface winds will shift to the southwest and west on Saturday and
remain gusty as a front pushes across the region. A few showers
and storms may develop Saturday mainly to the east of the terminal
sites.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Foster
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster






000
FXUS63 KSGF 250511
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1211 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Convection remained well to the west from northeastern into south
central Kansas at late evening. This activity will migrate eastward
overnight as the mid level shortwave moves across the central
Plains and an upper level jet streak shifts across the Ozarks.
What is left of the Kansas convection may impact portions of
southeastern Kansas into west central Missouri overnight. Also additional
scattered convection could develop across the Missouri Ozarks and
particularly the eastern Ozarks on the advancing edge of the mid
level dry slot and as the low level jet veers. Overall it looks as
if convection will be scattered in nature overnight. Instability
is lacking so the risk for any severe is limited at best.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Showers/Thunderstorms which developed in a band of isentropic
upglide earlier this morning have pretty much ended across the
area with only a few light showers remaining over central MO. In
the wake of the precipitation, cloud cover has persisted and has
kept temperatures in the low to mid 50s over parts of south
central MO to the upper 50s and low 60s across much of the
remainder of the CWA. Only the far western CWA has seen
temperatures reach the upper 60s to low 70s so far. Dew points
have been slow to increase as well with readings from the mid 40s
in the eastern Ozarks to the low 60s in the far western CWA.

Main forecast focus will be with thunderstorm/severe weather chances
tonight into Saturday as an upper level wave and cold front push
through the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Persistent cloud cover has held back instability today over the
forecast area, but was starting to increase across the central and
southern Plains ahead of a dryline. Some convection already noted
over southwest Oklahoma ahead of the dryline. Short term models
begin to break out convection well to the west in central Kansas
by 3 to 4 pm and take this activity eastward into northern and
central MO during the evening. This activity may affect extreme
southeast Kansas into west central and central MO by mid to late
evening. In addition, the convection developing in southern
Oklahoma into northeast Texas will shift may make it up into south
central MO this evening.

The area becomes dry slotted by late in the evening and overnight
across the area with main area of convection to the north and
south of the area.

Another slight chance of severe storms will occur ahead of a cold
front over the eastern Ozarks Saturday afternoon. The bulk of the
convection and severe chances are expected to be east of our area
on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

After dry conditions on Saturday night into Sunday, an upper low
pressure system will slowly track eastward across the southern
Plains and eventually over the forecast area by early next week.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible as this area
of upper low pressure shifts towards and over the region.

Upper level ridge will begin to work into the area by the middle
of next week with the upper level energy shifting southeast of the
area. Warmer and drier conditions are expected from the middle to
later portion of the upcoming work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Pilots can expect variable ceilings overnight with intervals of
IFR to VFR with lower ceilings more prevalent at the Springfield
and Branson terminals.  Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop and may impact terminal vicinities.

Gusty southeasterly winds at the surface along with low level
wind shear can also be expected tonight.

Surface winds will shift to the southwest and west on Saturday and
remain gusty as a front pushes across the region. A few showers
and storms may develop Saturday mainly to the east of the terminal
sites.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Foster
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster






000
FXUS63 KSGF 250511
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1211 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Convection remained well to the west from northeastern into south
central Kansas at late evening. This activity will migrate eastward
overnight as the mid level shortwave moves across the central
Plains and an upper level jet streak shifts across the Ozarks.
What is left of the Kansas convection may impact portions of
southeastern Kansas into west central Missouri overnight. Also additional
scattered convection could develop across the Missouri Ozarks and
particularly the eastern Ozarks on the advancing edge of the mid
level dry slot and as the low level jet veers. Overall it looks as
if convection will be scattered in nature overnight. Instability
is lacking so the risk for any severe is limited at best.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Showers/Thunderstorms which developed in a band of isentropic
upglide earlier this morning have pretty much ended across the
area with only a few light showers remaining over central MO. In
the wake of the precipitation, cloud cover has persisted and has
kept temperatures in the low to mid 50s over parts of south
central MO to the upper 50s and low 60s across much of the
remainder of the CWA. Only the far western CWA has seen
temperatures reach the upper 60s to low 70s so far. Dew points
have been slow to increase as well with readings from the mid 40s
in the eastern Ozarks to the low 60s in the far western CWA.

Main forecast focus will be with thunderstorm/severe weather chances
tonight into Saturday as an upper level wave and cold front push
through the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Persistent cloud cover has held back instability today over the
forecast area, but was starting to increase across the central and
southern Plains ahead of a dryline. Some convection already noted
over southwest Oklahoma ahead of the dryline. Short term models
begin to break out convection well to the west in central Kansas
by 3 to 4 pm and take this activity eastward into northern and
central MO during the evening. This activity may affect extreme
southeast Kansas into west central and central MO by mid to late
evening. In addition, the convection developing in southern
Oklahoma into northeast Texas will shift may make it up into south
central MO this evening.

The area becomes dry slotted by late in the evening and overnight
across the area with main area of convection to the north and
south of the area.

Another slight chance of severe storms will occur ahead of a cold
front over the eastern Ozarks Saturday afternoon. The bulk of the
convection and severe chances are expected to be east of our area
on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

After dry conditions on Saturday night into Sunday, an upper low
pressure system will slowly track eastward across the southern
Plains and eventually over the forecast area by early next week.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible as this area
of upper low pressure shifts towards and over the region.

Upper level ridge will begin to work into the area by the middle
of next week with the upper level energy shifting southeast of the
area. Warmer and drier conditions are expected from the middle to
later portion of the upcoming work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Pilots can expect variable ceilings overnight with intervals of
IFR to VFR with lower ceilings more prevalent at the Springfield
and Branson terminals.  Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop and may impact terminal vicinities.

Gusty southeasterly winds at the surface along with low level
wind shear can also be expected tonight.

Surface winds will shift to the southwest and west on Saturday and
remain gusty as a front pushes across the region. A few showers
and storms may develop Saturday mainly to the east of the terminal
sites.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Foster
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster






000
FXUS63 KLSX 250448
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1148 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Clouds and mild temperatures blanket the area late this afternoon
and we`ve seen very little precipitation thus far. The main forecast
issue tonight will be the precipitation chance/trends. Present
indications are two main areas to watch. The first is an area of
origination in south central and southeast MO this evening. The
guidance is in relatively good agreement showing a perturbation in
the southwest flow aloft will track northeast out of OK across the
aforementioned region. The latest water vapor imagery suggests the
presence of 2 upstream perturbations. This disturbance combined with
with strong moisture convergence/lift via an intensifying and
veering LLJ should result in an area of showers and thunderstorms
over the southeast third of the CWA. The second region of interest
is much further west. The short wave trof currently getting ready to
move into the central and southern High Plains combined with lift
via a secondary branch of the southerly LLJ should result in the
development of strong-severe thunderstorms along and east of the
dryline in KS over the next 2-4 hours. This initially scattered
convection should grow upscale into a convective system across
eastern KS this evening which will migrate eastward ahead of the
advancing surface low, and impact areas along/north of I-70
overnight into Saturday morning.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

By 12z Saturday morning, strengthening surface low will be over
northwestern MO. Will see overnight activity sliding north and east
of forecast area as dry slot wraps around low with a brief break in
activity, mainly for St. Louis metro and areas to the south and east
through midday. Then for afternoon hours, possibility of severe
weather and location of it will depend on location of surface low,
frontal boundary and how much the atmosphere recovers from morning
activity. Reintroduced thunderstorms for all locations as there is
enough instability, at the surface and aloft and decent low level
jet for storms to develop even north of track of surface low. For
now best chances of severe weather will be over east central and
southeast Missouri as well as southern Illinois as surface low
slides east southeast Saturday afternoon. Models showing CAPE
between 1000-2500 J/kg, decent lapse rates and shear, with supercell
development possible and main severe threats being large hail,
damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. SPC has placed this area in
a slight risk with an area of enhanced risk southeast of STL metro
area. Highs will vary from the low 60s far north to the mid 70s far
south.

System to exit region Saturday night with lingering showers tapering
off from north to south. Cooler air to slowly filter in with lows in
the low 40s far north to the low 50s far south.

Below normal temps and gradual clearing expected on Sunday as
surface ridge builds in. Beyond that, temperatures to slowly
moderate through the work week, with a shortwave sliding through
region on Wednesday with some scattered showers possible.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

MVFR cigs are in the process of overspreading the CWA attm...and
latest MET and MAV MOS still strongly suggest that this
deterioration will continue into IFR cigs during the predawn
hours as the persistent low level WAA increases the low level
moisture in the region. A few hit and miss showers have formed
over NE MO the last couple of hours, with the anticipation that
there will be a general increase in coverage of showers...as well
as thunderstorms...during the predawn hours as forcing via low
level jet and upper level low ramp up the vertical motion across
the Mississippi Valley. 00z guidance is a bit further south with
track of low, which would keep UIN in IFR conditions and precip throughout
the day, with only limited improvement at KCOU and the STL metro
area. Still appears that there will be a narrow window for
redevelopment of thunderstorms in the STL area during the early
afternoon, and have continued to highlight with VCTS attm.

Specifics for KSTL: Ceiings expected to drop below 1000 feet
during the predawn hours, with showers and a few thunderstorms
developing by around 09z. Anticipate that the early morning
convection will advect out of the region during the early morning,
with ceilings slowly improving to MVFR as surface low works into
the area from mid MO. Have maintained a mention of some
thunderstorm redevelopment during the early afternoon in the form
of VCTS...hoping later shifts will be able to refine the location
and intensity of this redevelopment.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 250448
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1148 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Clouds and mild temperatures blanket the area late this afternoon
and we`ve seen very little precipitation thus far. The main forecast
issue tonight will be the precipitation chance/trends. Present
indications are two main areas to watch. The first is an area of
origination in south central and southeast MO this evening. The
guidance is in relatively good agreement showing a perturbation in
the southwest flow aloft will track northeast out of OK across the
aforementioned region. The latest water vapor imagery suggests the
presence of 2 upstream perturbations. This disturbance combined with
with strong moisture convergence/lift via an intensifying and
veering LLJ should result in an area of showers and thunderstorms
over the southeast third of the CWA. The second region of interest
is much further west. The short wave trof currently getting ready to
move into the central and southern High Plains combined with lift
via a secondary branch of the southerly LLJ should result in the
development of strong-severe thunderstorms along and east of the
dryline in KS over the next 2-4 hours. This initially scattered
convection should grow upscale into a convective system across
eastern KS this evening which will migrate eastward ahead of the
advancing surface low, and impact areas along/north of I-70
overnight into Saturday morning.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

By 12z Saturday morning, strengthening surface low will be over
northwestern MO. Will see overnight activity sliding north and east
of forecast area as dry slot wraps around low with a brief break in
activity, mainly for St. Louis metro and areas to the south and east
through midday. Then for afternoon hours, possibility of severe
weather and location of it will depend on location of surface low,
frontal boundary and how much the atmosphere recovers from morning
activity. Reintroduced thunderstorms for all locations as there is
enough instability, at the surface and aloft and decent low level
jet for storms to develop even north of track of surface low. For
now best chances of severe weather will be over east central and
southeast Missouri as well as southern Illinois as surface low
slides east southeast Saturday afternoon. Models showing CAPE
between 1000-2500 J/kg, decent lapse rates and shear, with supercell
development possible and main severe threats being large hail,
damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. SPC has placed this area in
a slight risk with an area of enhanced risk southeast of STL metro
area. Highs will vary from the low 60s far north to the mid 70s far
south.

System to exit region Saturday night with lingering showers tapering
off from north to south. Cooler air to slowly filter in with lows in
the low 40s far north to the low 50s far south.

Below normal temps and gradual clearing expected on Sunday as
surface ridge builds in. Beyond that, temperatures to slowly
moderate through the work week, with a shortwave sliding through
region on Wednesday with some scattered showers possible.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

MVFR cigs are in the process of overspreading the CWA attm...and
latest MET and MAV MOS still strongly suggest that this
deterioration will continue into IFR cigs during the predawn
hours as the persistent low level WAA increases the low level
moisture in the region. A few hit and miss showers have formed
over NE MO the last couple of hours, with the anticipation that
there will be a general increase in coverage of showers...as well
as thunderstorms...during the predawn hours as forcing via low
level jet and upper level low ramp up the vertical motion across
the Mississippi Valley. 00z guidance is a bit further south with
track of low, which would keep UIN in IFR conditions and precip throughout
the day, with only limited improvement at KCOU and the STL metro
area. Still appears that there will be a narrow window for
redevelopment of thunderstorms in the STL area during the early
afternoon, and have continued to highlight with VCTS attm.

Specifics for KSTL: Ceiings expected to drop below 1000 feet
during the predawn hours, with showers and a few thunderstorms
developing by around 09z. Anticipate that the early morning
convection will advect out of the region during the early morning,
with ceilings slowly improving to MVFR as surface low works into
the area from mid MO. Have maintained a mention of some
thunderstorm redevelopment during the early afternoon in the form
of VCTS...hoping later shifts will be able to refine the location
and intensity of this redevelopment.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 250448
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1148 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Clouds and mild temperatures blanket the area late this afternoon
and we`ve seen very little precipitation thus far. The main forecast
issue tonight will be the precipitation chance/trends. Present
indications are two main areas to watch. The first is an area of
origination in south central and southeast MO this evening. The
guidance is in relatively good agreement showing a perturbation in
the southwest flow aloft will track northeast out of OK across the
aforementioned region. The latest water vapor imagery suggests the
presence of 2 upstream perturbations. This disturbance combined with
with strong moisture convergence/lift via an intensifying and
veering LLJ should result in an area of showers and thunderstorms
over the southeast third of the CWA. The second region of interest
is much further west. The short wave trof currently getting ready to
move into the central and southern High Plains combined with lift
via a secondary branch of the southerly LLJ should result in the
development of strong-severe thunderstorms along and east of the
dryline in KS over the next 2-4 hours. This initially scattered
convection should grow upscale into a convective system across
eastern KS this evening which will migrate eastward ahead of the
advancing surface low, and impact areas along/north of I-70
overnight into Saturday morning.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

By 12z Saturday morning, strengthening surface low will be over
northwestern MO. Will see overnight activity sliding north and east
of forecast area as dry slot wraps around low with a brief break in
activity, mainly for St. Louis metro and areas to the south and east
through midday. Then for afternoon hours, possibility of severe
weather and location of it will depend on location of surface low,
frontal boundary and how much the atmosphere recovers from morning
activity. Reintroduced thunderstorms for all locations as there is
enough instability, at the surface and aloft and decent low level
jet for storms to develop even north of track of surface low. For
now best chances of severe weather will be over east central and
southeast Missouri as well as southern Illinois as surface low
slides east southeast Saturday afternoon. Models showing CAPE
between 1000-2500 J/kg, decent lapse rates and shear, with supercell
development possible and main severe threats being large hail,
damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. SPC has placed this area in
a slight risk with an area of enhanced risk southeast of STL metro
area. Highs will vary from the low 60s far north to the mid 70s far
south.

System to exit region Saturday night with lingering showers tapering
off from north to south. Cooler air to slowly filter in with lows in
the low 40s far north to the low 50s far south.

Below normal temps and gradual clearing expected on Sunday as
surface ridge builds in. Beyond that, temperatures to slowly
moderate through the work week, with a shortwave sliding through
region on Wednesday with some scattered showers possible.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

MVFR cigs are in the process of overspreading the CWA attm...and
latest MET and MAV MOS still strongly suggest that this
deterioration will continue into IFR cigs during the predawn
hours as the persistent low level WAA increases the low level
moisture in the region. A few hit and miss showers have formed
over NE MO the last couple of hours, with the anticipation that
there will be a general increase in coverage of showers...as well
as thunderstorms...during the predawn hours as forcing via low
level jet and upper level low ramp up the vertical motion across
the Mississippi Valley. 00z guidance is a bit further south with
track of low, which would keep UIN in IFR conditions and precip throughout
the day, with only limited improvement at KCOU and the STL metro
area. Still appears that there will be a narrow window for
redevelopment of thunderstorms in the STL area during the early
afternoon, and have continued to highlight with VCTS attm.

Specifics for KSTL: Ceiings expected to drop below 1000 feet
during the predawn hours, with showers and a few thunderstorms
developing by around 09z. Anticipate that the early morning
convection will advect out of the region during the early morning,
with ceilings slowly improving to MVFR as surface low works into
the area from mid MO. Have maintained a mention of some
thunderstorm redevelopment during the early afternoon in the form
of VCTS...hoping later shifts will be able to refine the location
and intensity of this redevelopment.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 250448
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1148 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Clouds and mild temperatures blanket the area late this afternoon
and we`ve seen very little precipitation thus far. The main forecast
issue tonight will be the precipitation chance/trends. Present
indications are two main areas to watch. The first is an area of
origination in south central and southeast MO this evening. The
guidance is in relatively good agreement showing a perturbation in
the southwest flow aloft will track northeast out of OK across the
aforementioned region. The latest water vapor imagery suggests the
presence of 2 upstream perturbations. This disturbance combined with
with strong moisture convergence/lift via an intensifying and
veering LLJ should result in an area of showers and thunderstorms
over the southeast third of the CWA. The second region of interest
is much further west. The short wave trof currently getting ready to
move into the central and southern High Plains combined with lift
via a secondary branch of the southerly LLJ should result in the
development of strong-severe thunderstorms along and east of the
dryline in KS over the next 2-4 hours. This initially scattered
convection should grow upscale into a convective system across
eastern KS this evening which will migrate eastward ahead of the
advancing surface low, and impact areas along/north of I-70
overnight into Saturday morning.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

By 12z Saturday morning, strengthening surface low will be over
northwestern MO. Will see overnight activity sliding north and east
of forecast area as dry slot wraps around low with a brief break in
activity, mainly for St. Louis metro and areas to the south and east
through midday. Then for afternoon hours, possibility of severe
weather and location of it will depend on location of surface low,
frontal boundary and how much the atmosphere recovers from morning
activity. Reintroduced thunderstorms for all locations as there is
enough instability, at the surface and aloft and decent low level
jet for storms to develop even north of track of surface low. For
now best chances of severe weather will be over east central and
southeast Missouri as well as southern Illinois as surface low
slides east southeast Saturday afternoon. Models showing CAPE
between 1000-2500 J/kg, decent lapse rates and shear, with supercell
development possible and main severe threats being large hail,
damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. SPC has placed this area in
a slight risk with an area of enhanced risk southeast of STL metro
area. Highs will vary from the low 60s far north to the mid 70s far
south.

System to exit region Saturday night with lingering showers tapering
off from north to south. Cooler air to slowly filter in with lows in
the low 40s far north to the low 50s far south.

Below normal temps and gradual clearing expected on Sunday as
surface ridge builds in. Beyond that, temperatures to slowly
moderate through the work week, with a shortwave sliding through
region on Wednesday with some scattered showers possible.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

MVFR cigs are in the process of overspreading the CWA attm...and
latest MET and MAV MOS still strongly suggest that this
deterioration will continue into IFR cigs during the predawn
hours as the persistent low level WAA increases the low level
moisture in the region. A few hit and miss showers have formed
over NE MO the last couple of hours, with the anticipation that
there will be a general increase in coverage of showers...as well
as thunderstorms...during the predawn hours as forcing via low
level jet and upper level low ramp up the vertical motion across
the Mississippi Valley. 00z guidance is a bit further south with
track of low, which would keep UIN in IFR conditions and precip throughout
the day, with only limited improvement at KCOU and the STL metro
area. Still appears that there will be a narrow window for
redevelopment of thunderstorms in the STL area during the early
afternoon, and have continued to highlight with VCTS attm.

Specifics for KSTL: Ceiings expected to drop below 1000 feet
during the predawn hours, with showers and a few thunderstorms
developing by around 09z. Anticipate that the early morning
convection will advect out of the region during the early morning,
with ceilings slowly improving to MVFR as surface low works into
the area from mid MO. Have maintained a mention of some
thunderstorm redevelopment during the early afternoon in the form
of VCTS...hoping later shifts will be able to refine the location
and intensity of this redevelopment.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 250447
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1147 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Cloud cover has lingered well into the afternoon, inhibiting robust
diurnal heating. Additionally, the moisture plume, in the form of low
to mid 60 degree dewpoints, has been slow to build east. Instead it
has been streaming roughly along the I-35/US-81 corridor into
southern and central Kansas, ahead of the surface low which is still
over western Kansas. With instability parameters not being achieved,
severe convection is unlikely this afternoon and early this evening.
Instead, convection should develop close to the triple point in
western Kansas. There may be some eastward extension of this
convection into northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri this
evening as the warm front becomes well defined in the area. But
again, with limited instability development during the day, the
threat of severe convection along this eastward extension looks to be
low. The convection that does form over western to central Kansas
looks to congeal into a convective system that will then progress
eastward this evening and tonight. This is where things may get
interesting. There will be enough instability advected east ahead of
the system that convection will likely persist. Low level shear
vectors are nearly due west and there is a brief window when
relatively strong DCAPE is present. The area ahead of this convective
line should remain well mixed as well. This all suggest that as the
line moves east, that despite a general weakening trend, there may be
enough strength left in it to produce pockets of strong winds or even
some mesovortex signatures.

The surface low will slowly track across the area late tonight and
through the day Saturday. This will continue to lead to showers and
thunderstorms through the area throughout the day. Saturday
afternoon will need to be watched closely. There will be very strong
convergence along a boundary draped across northern Missouri. Models
also suggest a nose of weak to modest instability along this
boundary. This all occurs underneath the 500MB upper low. Forecast
soundings are quite interesting in northern Missouri tomorrow
afternoon with very low LCLs and little to no inhibition underneath
the cold upper low. Overall, this has the look of being one of those
days when weak convection produces funnel clouds or even a few weak
tornadoes.

Outside of tonight and tomorrow, the weather looks to be relatively
quiet through the remainder of the forecast. Models move another
closed upper low to our south early next week. We`ll likely only see
increased cloud cover over the southern half of the forecast area as
a result of this feature passing to the south. A general warming
trend is expected through the end of next week. Upper level ridging
will build over the the Intermountain West and into the Rockies
early in the week with this then building east with time. As a
result, conditions look to be dry with temperatures eventually
getting back into the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings exist across the area, and anticipate
MVFR to gradually become dominant height with time and persist well
into forecast period. Weakening line of showers and t-storms are
approaching TAF sites, and only anticipate isolated/temporary periods
of thunder near terminals. Otherwise, scattered showers are expected
through sunrise, with gradually decreasing chances during the day
Saturday. Wind directions will steadily change as the low moves
across the area through Saturday evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Blair






000
FXUS63 KEAX 250447
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1147 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Cloud cover has lingered well into the afternoon, inhibiting robust
diurnal heating. Additionally, the moisture plume, in the form of low
to mid 60 degree dewpoints, has been slow to build east. Instead it
has been streaming roughly along the I-35/US-81 corridor into
southern and central Kansas, ahead of the surface low which is still
over western Kansas. With instability parameters not being achieved,
severe convection is unlikely this afternoon and early this evening.
Instead, convection should develop close to the triple point in
western Kansas. There may be some eastward extension of this
convection into northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri this
evening as the warm front becomes well defined in the area. But
again, with limited instability development during the day, the
threat of severe convection along this eastward extension looks to be
low. The convection that does form over western to central Kansas
looks to congeal into a convective system that will then progress
eastward this evening and tonight. This is where things may get
interesting. There will be enough instability advected east ahead of
the system that convection will likely persist. Low level shear
vectors are nearly due west and there is a brief window when
relatively strong DCAPE is present. The area ahead of this convective
line should remain well mixed as well. This all suggest that as the
line moves east, that despite a general weakening trend, there may be
enough strength left in it to produce pockets of strong winds or even
some mesovortex signatures.

The surface low will slowly track across the area late tonight and
through the day Saturday. This will continue to lead to showers and
thunderstorms through the area throughout the day. Saturday
afternoon will need to be watched closely. There will be very strong
convergence along a boundary draped across northern Missouri. Models
also suggest a nose of weak to modest instability along this
boundary. This all occurs underneath the 500MB upper low. Forecast
soundings are quite interesting in northern Missouri tomorrow
afternoon with very low LCLs and little to no inhibition underneath
the cold upper low. Overall, this has the look of being one of those
days when weak convection produces funnel clouds or even a few weak
tornadoes.

Outside of tonight and tomorrow, the weather looks to be relatively
quiet through the remainder of the forecast. Models move another
closed upper low to our south early next week. We`ll likely only see
increased cloud cover over the southern half of the forecast area as
a result of this feature passing to the south. A general warming
trend is expected through the end of next week. Upper level ridging
will build over the the Intermountain West and into the Rockies
early in the week with this then building east with time. As a
result, conditions look to be dry with temperatures eventually
getting back into the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings exist across the area, and anticipate
MVFR to gradually become dominant height with time and persist well
into forecast period. Weakening line of showers and t-storms are
approaching TAF sites, and only anticipate isolated/temporary periods
of thunder near terminals. Otherwise, scattered showers are expected
through sunrise, with gradually decreasing chances during the day
Saturday. Wind directions will steadily change as the low moves
across the area through Saturday evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KLSX 242359
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
659 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Clouds and mild temperatures blanket the area late this afternoon
and we`ve seen very little precipitation thus far. The main forecast
issue tonight will be the precipitation chance/trends. Present
indications are two main areas to watch. The first is an area of
origination in south central and southeast MO this evening. The
guidance is in relatively good agreement showing a perturbation in
the southwest flow aloft will track northeast out of OK across the
aforementioned region. The latest water vapor imagery suggests the
presence of 2 upstream perturbations. This disturbance combined with
with strong moisture convergence/lift via an intensifying and
veering LLJ should result in an area of showers and thunderstorms
over the southeast third of the CWA. The second region of interest
is much further west. The short wave trof currently getting ready to
move into the central and southern High Plains combined with lift
via a secondary branch of the southerly LLJ should result in the
development of strong-severe thunderstorms along and east of the
dryline in KS over the next 2-4 hours. This initially scattered
convection should grow upscale into a convective system across
eastern KS this evening which will migrate eastward ahead of the
advancing surface low, and impact areas along/north of I-70
overnight into Saturday morning.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

By 12z Saturday morning, strengthening surface low will be over
northwestern MO. Will see overnight activity sliding north and east
of forecast area as dry slot wraps around low with a brief break in
activity, mainly for St. Louis metro and areas to the south and east
through midday. Then for afternoon hours, possibility of severe
weather and location of it will depend on location of surface low,
frontal boundary and how much the atmosphere recovers from morning
activity. Reintroduced thunderstorms for all locations as there is
enough instability, at the surface and aloft and decent low level
jet for storms to develop even north of track of surface low. For
now best chances of severe weather will be over east central and
southeast Missouri as well as southern Illinois as surface low
slides east southeast Saturday afternoon. Models showing CAPE
between 1000-2500 J/kg, decent lapse rates and shear, with supercell
development possible and main severe threats being large hail,
damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. SPC has placed this area in
a slight risk with an area of enhanced risk southeast of STL metro
area. Highs will vary from the low 60s far north to the mid 70s far
south.

System to exit region Saturday night with lingering showers tapering
off from north to south. Cooler air to slowly filter in with lows in
the low 40s far north to the low 50s far south.

Below normal temps and gradual clearing expected on Sunday as
surface ridge builds in. Beyond that, temperatures to slowly
moderate through the work week, with a shortwave sliding through
region on Wednesday with some scattered showers possible.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Tough aviation forecast this evening, but in general we should
see a deterioration of ceilings with the persistent WAA
transporting deep low level moisture into the region. Timing and
ultimately how low ceilings will go is still a bit of a question
mark, but heading towards IFR conditions seems appropriate given
the moisture progged into the area. Bigger question mark is
when/were convection will form over the region. There seems to be
some consensus in the explicit model solutions that there will be
a split in the precip early in the period, with activity over AR
primarily moving east while increasing convection over KS
eventually develops into NW MO. However, during 06-10z time frame
all of the solutions are suggesting fairly strong WAA/isentropic
ascent focused over the mid-Mississippi Valley that should mean
showers and a few thunderstorms for most of our TAF sites. For the
KCOU and STL metro TAFS, expect morning stratus to lift and break
up a bit...and take on a more warm sector/cumuliform look before
the next round of convection fires along the cold front/dry line
in the early afternoon. At this point, have simply used a VCTS to
highlight this threat, and will leave the details to later
forecasts. However, expect KUIN to remain in IFR cigs throughout
the day as model consensus suggests the surface low passes near
or just to the south of this TAF site.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect deteriorating ceilings throughout the
evening, with IFR ceilings developing after 06z as showers and
thunderstorms develop over the region. This precip is expected to
lift out early in the morning, with ST breaking up a bit and taking
on a more warm sector look of a deep CU field by late morning.
There should be another threat of convection around or shortly
after midday as cold front/dry line sweep across the area, and
have used VCTS to highlight this threat attm.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 242359
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
659 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Clouds and mild temperatures blanket the area late this afternoon
and we`ve seen very little precipitation thus far. The main forecast
issue tonight will be the precipitation chance/trends. Present
indications are two main areas to watch. The first is an area of
origination in south central and southeast MO this evening. The
guidance is in relatively good agreement showing a perturbation in
the southwest flow aloft will track northeast out of OK across the
aforementioned region. The latest water vapor imagery suggests the
presence of 2 upstream perturbations. This disturbance combined with
with strong moisture convergence/lift via an intensifying and
veering LLJ should result in an area of showers and thunderstorms
over the southeast third of the CWA. The second region of interest
is much further west. The short wave trof currently getting ready to
move into the central and southern High Plains combined with lift
via a secondary branch of the southerly LLJ should result in the
development of strong-severe thunderstorms along and east of the
dryline in KS over the next 2-4 hours. This initially scattered
convection should grow upscale into a convective system across
eastern KS this evening which will migrate eastward ahead of the
advancing surface low, and impact areas along/north of I-70
overnight into Saturday morning.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

By 12z Saturday morning, strengthening surface low will be over
northwestern MO. Will see overnight activity sliding north and east
of forecast area as dry slot wraps around low with a brief break in
activity, mainly for St. Louis metro and areas to the south and east
through midday. Then for afternoon hours, possibility of severe
weather and location of it will depend on location of surface low,
frontal boundary and how much the atmosphere recovers from morning
activity. Reintroduced thunderstorms for all locations as there is
enough instability, at the surface and aloft and decent low level
jet for storms to develop even north of track of surface low. For
now best chances of severe weather will be over east central and
southeast Missouri as well as southern Illinois as surface low
slides east southeast Saturday afternoon. Models showing CAPE
between 1000-2500 J/kg, decent lapse rates and shear, with supercell
development possible and main severe threats being large hail,
damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. SPC has placed this area in
a slight risk with an area of enhanced risk southeast of STL metro
area. Highs will vary from the low 60s far north to the mid 70s far
south.

System to exit region Saturday night with lingering showers tapering
off from north to south. Cooler air to slowly filter in with lows in
the low 40s far north to the low 50s far south.

Below normal temps and gradual clearing expected on Sunday as
surface ridge builds in. Beyond that, temperatures to slowly
moderate through the work week, with a shortwave sliding through
region on Wednesday with some scattered showers possible.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Tough aviation forecast this evening, but in general we should
see a deterioration of ceilings with the persistent WAA
transporting deep low level moisture into the region. Timing and
ultimately how low ceilings will go is still a bit of a question
mark, but heading towards IFR conditions seems appropriate given
the moisture progged into the area. Bigger question mark is
when/were convection will form over the region. There seems to be
some consensus in the explicit model solutions that there will be
a split in the precip early in the period, with activity over AR
primarily moving east while increasing convection over KS
eventually develops into NW MO. However, during 06-10z time frame
all of the solutions are suggesting fairly strong WAA/isentropic
ascent focused over the mid-Mississippi Valley that should mean
showers and a few thunderstorms for most of our TAF sites. For the
KCOU and STL metro TAFS, expect morning stratus to lift and break
up a bit...and take on a more warm sector/cumuliform look before
the next round of convection fires along the cold front/dry line
in the early afternoon. At this point, have simply used a VCTS to
highlight this threat, and will leave the details to later
forecasts. However, expect KUIN to remain in IFR cigs throughout
the day as model consensus suggests the surface low passes near
or just to the south of this TAF site.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect deteriorating ceilings throughout the
evening, with IFR ceilings developing after 06z as showers and
thunderstorms develop over the region. This precip is expected to
lift out early in the morning, with ST breaking up a bit and taking
on a more warm sector look of a deep CU field by late morning.
There should be another threat of convection around or shortly
after midday as cold front/dry line sweep across the area, and
have used VCTS to highlight this threat attm.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 242359
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
659 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Clouds and mild temperatures blanket the area late this afternoon
and we`ve seen very little precipitation thus far. The main forecast
issue tonight will be the precipitation chance/trends. Present
indications are two main areas to watch. The first is an area of
origination in south central and southeast MO this evening. The
guidance is in relatively good agreement showing a perturbation in
the southwest flow aloft will track northeast out of OK across the
aforementioned region. The latest water vapor imagery suggests the
presence of 2 upstream perturbations. This disturbance combined with
with strong moisture convergence/lift via an intensifying and
veering LLJ should result in an area of showers and thunderstorms
over the southeast third of the CWA. The second region of interest
is much further west. The short wave trof currently getting ready to
move into the central and southern High Plains combined with lift
via a secondary branch of the southerly LLJ should result in the
development of strong-severe thunderstorms along and east of the
dryline in KS over the next 2-4 hours. This initially scattered
convection should grow upscale into a convective system across
eastern KS this evening which will migrate eastward ahead of the
advancing surface low, and impact areas along/north of I-70
overnight into Saturday morning.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

By 12z Saturday morning, strengthening surface low will be over
northwestern MO. Will see overnight activity sliding north and east
of forecast area as dry slot wraps around low with a brief break in
activity, mainly for St. Louis metro and areas to the south and east
through midday. Then for afternoon hours, possibility of severe
weather and location of it will depend on location of surface low,
frontal boundary and how much the atmosphere recovers from morning
activity. Reintroduced thunderstorms for all locations as there is
enough instability, at the surface and aloft and decent low level
jet for storms to develop even north of track of surface low. For
now best chances of severe weather will be over east central and
southeast Missouri as well as southern Illinois as surface low
slides east southeast Saturday afternoon. Models showing CAPE
between 1000-2500 J/kg, decent lapse rates and shear, with supercell
development possible and main severe threats being large hail,
damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. SPC has placed this area in
a slight risk with an area of enhanced risk southeast of STL metro
area. Highs will vary from the low 60s far north to the mid 70s far
south.

System to exit region Saturday night with lingering showers tapering
off from north to south. Cooler air to slowly filter in with lows in
the low 40s far north to the low 50s far south.

Below normal temps and gradual clearing expected on Sunday as
surface ridge builds in. Beyond that, temperatures to slowly
moderate through the work week, with a shortwave sliding through
region on Wednesday with some scattered showers possible.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Tough aviation forecast this evening, but in general we should
see a deterioration of ceilings with the persistent WAA
transporting deep low level moisture into the region. Timing and
ultimately how low ceilings will go is still a bit of a question
mark, but heading towards IFR conditions seems appropriate given
the moisture progged into the area. Bigger question mark is
when/were convection will form over the region. There seems to be
some consensus in the explicit model solutions that there will be
a split in the precip early in the period, with activity over AR
primarily moving east while increasing convection over KS
eventually develops into NW MO. However, during 06-10z time frame
all of the solutions are suggesting fairly strong WAA/isentropic
ascent focused over the mid-Mississippi Valley that should mean
showers and a few thunderstorms for most of our TAF sites. For the
KCOU and STL metro TAFS, expect morning stratus to lift and break
up a bit...and take on a more warm sector/cumuliform look before
the next round of convection fires along the cold front/dry line
in the early afternoon. At this point, have simply used a VCTS to
highlight this threat, and will leave the details to later
forecasts. However, expect KUIN to remain in IFR cigs throughout
the day as model consensus suggests the surface low passes near
or just to the south of this TAF site.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect deteriorating ceilings throughout the
evening, with IFR ceilings developing after 06z as showers and
thunderstorms develop over the region. This precip is expected to
lift out early in the morning, with ST breaking up a bit and taking
on a more warm sector look of a deep CU field by late morning.
There should be another threat of convection around or shortly
after midday as cold front/dry line sweep across the area, and
have used VCTS to highlight this threat attm.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 242359
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
659 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Clouds and mild temperatures blanket the area late this afternoon
and we`ve seen very little precipitation thus far. The main forecast
issue tonight will be the precipitation chance/trends. Present
indications are two main areas to watch. The first is an area of
origination in south central and southeast MO this evening. The
guidance is in relatively good agreement showing a perturbation in
the southwest flow aloft will track northeast out of OK across the
aforementioned region. The latest water vapor imagery suggests the
presence of 2 upstream perturbations. This disturbance combined with
with strong moisture convergence/lift via an intensifying and
veering LLJ should result in an area of showers and thunderstorms
over the southeast third of the CWA. The second region of interest
is much further west. The short wave trof currently getting ready to
move into the central and southern High Plains combined with lift
via a secondary branch of the southerly LLJ should result in the
development of strong-severe thunderstorms along and east of the
dryline in KS over the next 2-4 hours. This initially scattered
convection should grow upscale into a convective system across
eastern KS this evening which will migrate eastward ahead of the
advancing surface low, and impact areas along/north of I-70
overnight into Saturday morning.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

By 12z Saturday morning, strengthening surface low will be over
northwestern MO. Will see overnight activity sliding north and east
of forecast area as dry slot wraps around low with a brief break in
activity, mainly for St. Louis metro and areas to the south and east
through midday. Then for afternoon hours, possibility of severe
weather and location of it will depend on location of surface low,
frontal boundary and how much the atmosphere recovers from morning
activity. Reintroduced thunderstorms for all locations as there is
enough instability, at the surface and aloft and decent low level
jet for storms to develop even north of track of surface low. For
now best chances of severe weather will be over east central and
southeast Missouri as well as southern Illinois as surface low
slides east southeast Saturday afternoon. Models showing CAPE
between 1000-2500 J/kg, decent lapse rates and shear, with supercell
development possible and main severe threats being large hail,
damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. SPC has placed this area in
a slight risk with an area of enhanced risk southeast of STL metro
area. Highs will vary from the low 60s far north to the mid 70s far
south.

System to exit region Saturday night with lingering showers tapering
off from north to south. Cooler air to slowly filter in with lows in
the low 40s far north to the low 50s far south.

Below normal temps and gradual clearing expected on Sunday as
surface ridge builds in. Beyond that, temperatures to slowly
moderate through the work week, with a shortwave sliding through
region on Wednesday with some scattered showers possible.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Tough aviation forecast this evening, but in general we should
see a deterioration of ceilings with the persistent WAA
transporting deep low level moisture into the region. Timing and
ultimately how low ceilings will go is still a bit of a question
mark, but heading towards IFR conditions seems appropriate given
the moisture progged into the area. Bigger question mark is
when/were convection will form over the region. There seems to be
some consensus in the explicit model solutions that there will be
a split in the precip early in the period, with activity over AR
primarily moving east while increasing convection over KS
eventually develops into NW MO. However, during 06-10z time frame
all of the solutions are suggesting fairly strong WAA/isentropic
ascent focused over the mid-Mississippi Valley that should mean
showers and a few thunderstorms for most of our TAF sites. For the
KCOU and STL metro TAFS, expect morning stratus to lift and break
up a bit...and take on a more warm sector/cumuliform look before
the next round of convection fires along the cold front/dry line
in the early afternoon. At this point, have simply used a VCTS to
highlight this threat, and will leave the details to later
forecasts. However, expect KUIN to remain in IFR cigs throughout
the day as model consensus suggests the surface low passes near
or just to the south of this TAF site.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect deteriorating ceilings throughout the
evening, with IFR ceilings developing after 06z as showers and
thunderstorms develop over the region. This precip is expected to
lift out early in the morning, with ST breaking up a bit and taking
on a more warm sector look of a deep CU field by late morning.
There should be another threat of convection around or shortly
after midday as cold front/dry line sweep across the area, and
have used VCTS to highlight this threat attm.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 242334
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
634 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Cloud cover has lingered well into the afternoon, inhibiting robust
diurnal heating. Additionally, the moisture plume, in the form of low
to mid 60 degree dewpoints, has been slow to build east. Instead it
has been streaming roughly along the I-35/US-81 corridor into
southern and central Kansas, ahead of the surface low which is still
over western Kansas. With instability parameters not being achieved,
severe convection is unlikely this afternoon and early this evening.
Instead, convection should develop close to the triple point in
western Kansas. There may be some eastward extension of this
convection into northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri this
evening as the warm front becomes well defined in the area. But
again, with limited instability development during the day, the
threat of severe convection along this eastward extension looks to be
low. The convection that does form over western to central Kansas
looks to congeal into a convective system that will then progress
eastward this evening and tonight. This is where things may get
interesting. There will be enough instability advected east ahead of
the system that convection will likely persist. Low level shear
vectors are nearly due west and there is a brief window when
relatively strong DCAPE is present. The area ahead of this convective
line should remain well mixed as well. This all suggest that as the
line moves east, that despite a general weakening trend, there may be
enough strength left in it to produce pockets of strong winds or even
some mesovortex signatures.

The surface low will slowly track across the area late tonight and
through the day Saturday. This will continue to lead to showers and
thunderstorms through the area throughout the day. Saturday
afternoon will need to be watched closely. There will be very strong
convergence along a boundary draped across northern Missouri. Models
also suggest a nose of weak to modest instability along this
boundary. This all occurs underneath the 500MB upper low. Forecast
soundings are quite interesting in northern Missouri tomorrow
afternoon with very low LCLs and little to no inhibition underneath
the cold upper low. Overall, this has the look of being one of those
days when weak convection produces funnel clouds or even a few weak
tornadoes.

Outside of tonight and tomorrow, the weather looks to be relatively
quiet through the remainder of the forecast. Models move another
closed upper low to our south early next week. We`ll likely only see
increased cloud cover over the southern half of the forecast area as
a result of this feature passing to the south. A general warming
trend is expected through the end of next week. Upper level ridging
will build over the the Intermountain West and into the Rockies
early in the week with this then building east with time. As a
result, conditions look to be dry with temperatures eventually
getting back into the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 629 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

No large changes to the TAFs. Initial concern will be potential for
convection to develop after sunset ahead of the ongoing KS activity.
Several rounds of precipitation will be possible overnight into the
morning hours. MVFR ceilings are expected through much of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 242334
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
634 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Cloud cover has lingered well into the afternoon, inhibiting robust
diurnal heating. Additionally, the moisture plume, in the form of low
to mid 60 degree dewpoints, has been slow to build east. Instead it
has been streaming roughly along the I-35/US-81 corridor into
southern and central Kansas, ahead of the surface low which is still
over western Kansas. With instability parameters not being achieved,
severe convection is unlikely this afternoon and early this evening.
Instead, convection should develop close to the triple point in
western Kansas. There may be some eastward extension of this
convection into northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri this
evening as the warm front becomes well defined in the area. But
again, with limited instability development during the day, the
threat of severe convection along this eastward extension looks to be
low. The convection that does form over western to central Kansas
looks to congeal into a convective system that will then progress
eastward this evening and tonight. This is where things may get
interesting. There will be enough instability advected east ahead of
the system that convection will likely persist. Low level shear
vectors are nearly due west and there is a brief window when
relatively strong DCAPE is present. The area ahead of this convective
line should remain well mixed as well. This all suggest that as the
line moves east, that despite a general weakening trend, there may be
enough strength left in it to produce pockets of strong winds or even
some mesovortex signatures.

The surface low will slowly track across the area late tonight and
through the day Saturday. This will continue to lead to showers and
thunderstorms through the area throughout the day. Saturday
afternoon will need to be watched closely. There will be very strong
convergence along a boundary draped across northern Missouri. Models
also suggest a nose of weak to modest instability along this
boundary. This all occurs underneath the 500MB upper low. Forecast
soundings are quite interesting in northern Missouri tomorrow
afternoon with very low LCLs and little to no inhibition underneath
the cold upper low. Overall, this has the look of being one of those
days when weak convection produces funnel clouds or even a few weak
tornadoes.

Outside of tonight and tomorrow, the weather looks to be relatively
quiet through the remainder of the forecast. Models move another
closed upper low to our south early next week. We`ll likely only see
increased cloud cover over the southern half of the forecast area as
a result of this feature passing to the south. A general warming
trend is expected through the end of next week. Upper level ridging
will build over the the Intermountain West and into the Rockies
early in the week with this then building east with time. As a
result, conditions look to be dry with temperatures eventually
getting back into the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 629 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

No large changes to the TAFs. Initial concern will be potential for
convection to develop after sunset ahead of the ongoing KS activity.
Several rounds of precipitation will be possible overnight into the
morning hours. MVFR ceilings are expected through much of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Blair






000
FXUS63 KSGF 242334
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
634 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 630 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Cloud cover and resulting cool temperatures have limited instability
this afternoon. Meanwhile thunderstorms were developing well to
the west across central Kansas along a dry line in advance of a
shortwave trough. The result is a lower risk for severe weather or
any convection tonight across far southeastern Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks.

Maintained a limited risk for severe storms late tonight as
convection out west may make it into the area while weakening.
Additional convection may also attempt to develop overnight on the
nose of mid level dry slot but this is uncertain at this time.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Showers/Thunderstorms which developed in a band of isentropic
upglide earlier this morning have pretty much ended across the
area with only a few light showers remaining over central MO. In
the wake of the precipitation, cloud cover has persisted and has
kept temperatures in the low to mid 50s over parts of south
central MO to the upper 50s and low 60s across much of the
remainder of the CWA. Only the far western CWA has seen
temperatures reach the upper 60s to low 70s so far. Dew points
have been slow to increase as well with readings from the mid 40s
in the eastern Ozarks to the low 60s in the far western CWA.

Main forecast focus will be with thunderstorm/severe weather chances
tonight into Saturday as an upper level wave and cold front push
through the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Persistent cloud cover has held back instability today over the
forecast area, but was starting to increase across the central and
southern Plains ahead of a dryline. Some convection already noted
over southwest Oklahoma ahead of the dryline. Short term models
begin to break out convection well to the west in central Kansas
by 3 to 4 pm and take this activity eastward into northern and
central MO during the evening. This activity may affect extreme
southeast Kansas into west central and central MO by mid to late
evening. In addition, the convection developing in southern
Oklahoma into northeast Texas will shift may make it up into south
central MO this evening.

The area becomes dry slotted by late in the evening and overnight
across the area with main area of convection to the north and
south of the area.

Another slight chance of severe storms will occur ahead of a cold
front over the eastern Ozarks Saturday afternoon. The bulk of the
convection and severe chances are expected to be east of our area
on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

After dry conditions on Saturday night into Sunday, an upper low
pressure system will slowly track eastward across the southern
Plains and eventually over the forecast area by early next week.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible as this area
of upper low pressure shifts towards and over the region.

Upper level ridge will begin to work into the area by the middle
of next week with the upper level energy shifting southeast of the
area. Warmer and drier conditions are expected from the middle to
later portion of the upcoming work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Pilots can expect VFR to areas of MVFR ceilings tonight with
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region late
tonight. Areas of MVFR ceilings will increase as the night
progresses and especially impacting the Branson terminal. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms may impact area terminals late tonight
generally after 06z. Gusty southeasterly winds at the surface
along with low level wind shear can also be expected tonight.

Surface winds will shift to the southwest and west on Saturday and
remain gusty as a front pushes across the region. Scattered
showers and storms may develop Saturday mainly to the east of the
terminal sites.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Foster
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster






000
FXUS63 KSGF 242334
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
634 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 630 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Cloud cover and resulting cool temperatures have limited instability
this afternoon. Meanwhile thunderstorms were developing well to
the west across central Kansas along a dry line in advance of a
shortwave trough. The result is a lower risk for severe weather or
any convection tonight across far southeastern Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks.

Maintained a limited risk for severe storms late tonight as
convection out west may make it into the area while weakening.
Additional convection may also attempt to develop overnight on the
nose of mid level dry slot but this is uncertain at this time.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Showers/Thunderstorms which developed in a band of isentropic
upglide earlier this morning have pretty much ended across the
area with only a few light showers remaining over central MO. In
the wake of the precipitation, cloud cover has persisted and has
kept temperatures in the low to mid 50s over parts of south
central MO to the upper 50s and low 60s across much of the
remainder of the CWA. Only the far western CWA has seen
temperatures reach the upper 60s to low 70s so far. Dew points
have been slow to increase as well with readings from the mid 40s
in the eastern Ozarks to the low 60s in the far western CWA.

Main forecast focus will be with thunderstorm/severe weather chances
tonight into Saturday as an upper level wave and cold front push
through the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Persistent cloud cover has held back instability today over the
forecast area, but was starting to increase across the central and
southern Plains ahead of a dryline. Some convection already noted
over southwest Oklahoma ahead of the dryline. Short term models
begin to break out convection well to the west in central Kansas
by 3 to 4 pm and take this activity eastward into northern and
central MO during the evening. This activity may affect extreme
southeast Kansas into west central and central MO by mid to late
evening. In addition, the convection developing in southern
Oklahoma into northeast Texas will shift may make it up into south
central MO this evening.

The area becomes dry slotted by late in the evening and overnight
across the area with main area of convection to the north and
south of the area.

Another slight chance of severe storms will occur ahead of a cold
front over the eastern Ozarks Saturday afternoon. The bulk of the
convection and severe chances are expected to be east of our area
on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

After dry conditions on Saturday night into Sunday, an upper low
pressure system will slowly track eastward across the southern
Plains and eventually over the forecast area by early next week.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible as this area
of upper low pressure shifts towards and over the region.

Upper level ridge will begin to work into the area by the middle
of next week with the upper level energy shifting southeast of the
area. Warmer and drier conditions are expected from the middle to
later portion of the upcoming work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Pilots can expect VFR to areas of MVFR ceilings tonight with
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region late
tonight. Areas of MVFR ceilings will increase as the night
progresses and especially impacting the Branson terminal. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms may impact area terminals late tonight
generally after 06z. Gusty southeasterly winds at the surface
along with low level wind shear can also be expected tonight.

Surface winds will shift to the southwest and west on Saturday and
remain gusty as a front pushes across the region. Scattered
showers and storms may develop Saturday mainly to the east of the
terminal sites.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Foster
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KLSX 242038
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
338 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Clouds and mild temperatures blanket the area late this afternoon
and we`ve seen very little precipitation thus far. The main forecast
issue tonight will be the precipitation chance/trends. Present
indications are two main areas to watch. The first is an area of
origination in south central and southeast MO this evening. The
guidance is in relatively good agreement showing a perturbation in
the southwest flow aloft will track northeast out of OK across the
aforementioned region. The latest water vapor imagery suggests the
presence of 2 upstream perturbations. This disturbance combined with
with strong moisture convergence/lift via an intensifying and
veering LLJ should result in an area of showers and thunderstorms
over the southeast third of the CWA. The second region of interest
is much further west. The short wave trof currently getting ready to
move into the central and southern High Plains combined with lift
via a secondary branch of the southerly LLJ should result in the
development of strong-severe thunderstorms along and east of the
dryline in KS over the next 2-4 hours. This initially scattered
convection should grow upscale into a convective system across
eastern KS this evening which will migrate eastward ahead of the
advancing surface low, and impact areas along/north of I-70
overnight into Saturday morning.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

By 12z Saturday morning, strengthening surface low will be over
northwestern MO. Will see overnight activity sliding north and east
of forecast area as dry slot wraps around low with a brief break in
activity, mainly for St. Louis metro and areas to the south and east
through midday. Then for afternoon hours, possibility of severe
weather and location of it will depend on location of surface low,
frontal boundary and how much the atmosphere recovers from morning
activity. Reintroduced thunderstorms for all locations as there is
enough instability, at the surface and aloft and decent low level
jet for storms to develop even north of track of surface low. For
now best chances of severe weather will be over east central and
southeast Missouri as well as southern Illinois as surface low
slides east southeast Saturday afternoon. Models showing CAPE
between 1000-2500 J/kg, decent lapse rates and shear, with supercell
development possible and main severe threats being large hail,
damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. SPC has placed this area in
a slight risk with an area of enhanced risk southeast of STL metro
area. Highs will vary from the low 60s far north to the mid 70s far
south.

System to exit region Saturday night with lingering showers tapering
off from north to south. Cooler air to slowly filter in with lows in
the low 40s far north to the low 50s far south.

Below normal temps and gradual clearing expected on Sunday as
surface ridge builds in. Beyond that, temperatures to slowly
moderate through the work week, with a shortwave sliding through
region on Wednesday with some scattered showers possible.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Multi-layered clouds are occurring across the region at midday with
all sites VFR at this time. A large area of MVFR cigs will advance
into central MO/KCOU later this afternoon, gradually overspreading
the other terminals later this evening. Main precipitation through
mid-evening will be spotty showers with little if any impact. A
better threat of showers and thunderstorms will exist during the
later part of the evening into the overnight hours and this will
be possible in 2 modes. The first being showers and thunderstorms
which originate in southeast MO and push northeast and then a large
region of showers and thunderstorms which develops in KS late this
afternoon/this evening and moves east-northeast. Flight conditions
will deteriorate overnight with IFR developing and lasting into the
morning hours.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions are expected until later this evening. Any
precipitation during this time period should be sprinkles or
spotty short-lived showers with little if any impact.

Later this evening a better threat of showers and thunderstorms
will exist and it will coincide with the arrival of MVFR cigs.
Showers and possibly thunderstorms which originate in southeast MO
will move northeast potentially impacting the terminal after
03-04z. Following this first batch, a large region of showers and
thunderstorms which develops in KS late this afternoon/this
evening may move into KSTL after 09z. Flight conditions will
deteriorate overnight with IFR developing and lasting into Saturday
morning. An additional threat of thunderstorms may unfold after
19-20z Saturday however due to the uncertainty will refrain from
mentioning in the current TAF.

Glass
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 242038
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
338 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Clouds and mild temperatures blanket the area late this afternoon
and we`ve seen very little precipitation thus far. The main forecast
issue tonight will be the precipitation chance/trends. Present
indications are two main areas to watch. The first is an area of
origination in south central and southeast MO this evening. The
guidance is in relatively good agreement showing a perturbation in
the southwest flow aloft will track northeast out of OK across the
aforementioned region. The latest water vapor imagery suggests the
presence of 2 upstream perturbations. This disturbance combined with
with strong moisture convergence/lift via an intensifying and
veering LLJ should result in an area of showers and thunderstorms
over the southeast third of the CWA. The second region of interest
is much further west. The short wave trof currently getting ready to
move into the central and southern High Plains combined with lift
via a secondary branch of the southerly LLJ should result in the
development of strong-severe thunderstorms along and east of the
dryline in KS over the next 2-4 hours. This initially scattered
convection should grow upscale into a convective system across
eastern KS this evening which will migrate eastward ahead of the
advancing surface low, and impact areas along/north of I-70
overnight into Saturday morning.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

By 12z Saturday morning, strengthening surface low will be over
northwestern MO. Will see overnight activity sliding north and east
of forecast area as dry slot wraps around low with a brief break in
activity, mainly for St. Louis metro and areas to the south and east
through midday. Then for afternoon hours, possibility of severe
weather and location of it will depend on location of surface low,
frontal boundary and how much the atmosphere recovers from morning
activity. Reintroduced thunderstorms for all locations as there is
enough instability, at the surface and aloft and decent low level
jet for storms to develop even north of track of surface low. For
now best chances of severe weather will be over east central and
southeast Missouri as well as southern Illinois as surface low
slides east southeast Saturday afternoon. Models showing CAPE
between 1000-2500 J/kg, decent lapse rates and shear, with supercell
development possible and main severe threats being large hail,
damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. SPC has placed this area in
a slight risk with an area of enhanced risk southeast of STL metro
area. Highs will vary from the low 60s far north to the mid 70s far
south.

System to exit region Saturday night with lingering showers tapering
off from north to south. Cooler air to slowly filter in with lows in
the low 40s far north to the low 50s far south.

Below normal temps and gradual clearing expected on Sunday as
surface ridge builds in. Beyond that, temperatures to slowly
moderate through the work week, with a shortwave sliding through
region on Wednesday with some scattered showers possible.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Multi-layered clouds are occurring across the region at midday with
all sites VFR at this time. A large area of MVFR cigs will advance
into central MO/KCOU later this afternoon, gradually overspreading
the other terminals later this evening. Main precipitation through
mid-evening will be spotty showers with little if any impact. A
better threat of showers and thunderstorms will exist during the
later part of the evening into the overnight hours and this will
be possible in 2 modes. The first being showers and thunderstorms
which originate in southeast MO and push northeast and then a large
region of showers and thunderstorms which develops in KS late this
afternoon/this evening and moves east-northeast. Flight conditions
will deteriorate overnight with IFR developing and lasting into the
morning hours.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions are expected until later this evening. Any
precipitation during this time period should be sprinkles or
spotty short-lived showers with little if any impact.

Later this evening a better threat of showers and thunderstorms
will exist and it will coincide with the arrival of MVFR cigs.
Showers and possibly thunderstorms which originate in southeast MO
will move northeast potentially impacting the terminal after
03-04z. Following this first batch, a large region of showers and
thunderstorms which develops in KS late this afternoon/this
evening may move into KSTL after 09z. Flight conditions will
deteriorate overnight with IFR developing and lasting into Saturday
morning. An additional threat of thunderstorms may unfold after
19-20z Saturday however due to the uncertainty will refrain from
mentioning in the current TAF.

Glass
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 242016
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
316 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Cloud cover has lingered well into the afternoon, inhibiting robust
diurnal heating. Additionally, the moisture plume, in the form of low
to mid 60 degree dewpoints, has been slow to build east. Instead it
has been streaming roughly along the I-35/US-81 corridor into
southern and central Kansas, ahead of the surface low which is still
over western Kansas. With instability parameters not being achieved,
severe convection is unlikely this afternoon and early this evening.
Instead, convection should develop close to the triple point in
western Kansas. There may be some eastward extension of this
convection into northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri this
evening as the warm front becomes well defined in the area. But
again, with limited instability development during the day, the
threat of severe convection along this eastward extension looks to be
low. The convection that does form over western to central Kansas
looks to congeal into a convective system that will then progress
eastward this evening and tonight. This is where things may get
interesting. There will be enough instability advected east ahead of
the system that convection will likely persist. Low level shear
vectors are nearly due west and there is a brief window when
relatively strong DCAPE is present. The area ahead of this convective
line should remain well mixed as well. This all suggest that as the
line moves east, that despite a general weakening trend, there may be
enough strength left in it to produce pockets of strong winds or even
some mesovortex signatures.

The surface low will slowly track across the area late tonight and
through the day Saturday. This will continue to lead to showers and
thunderstorms through the area throughout the day. Saturday
afternoon will need to be watched closely. There will be very strong
convergence along a boundary draped across northern Missouri. Models
also suggest a nose of weak to modest instability along this
boundary. This all occurs underneath the 500MB upper low. Forecast
soundings are quite interesting in northern Missouri tomorrow
afternoon with very low LCLs and little to no inhibition underneath
the cold upper low. Overall, this has the look of being one of those
days when weak convection produces funnel clouds or even a few weak
tornadoes.

Outside of tonight and tomorrow, the weather looks to be relatively
quiet through the remainder of the forecast. Models move another
closed upper low to our south early next week. We`ll likely only see
increased cloud cover over the southern half of the forecast area as
a result of this feature passing to the south. A general warming
trend is expected through the end of next week. Upper level ridging
will build over the the Intermountain West and into the Rockies
early in the week with this then building east with time. As a
result, conditions look to be dry with temperatures eventually
getting back into the 70s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

This is a complex forecast for the terminals. First, through the
afternoon, MVFR ceilings are expected. There is some potential these
could be in the 1500 ft to 2000 ft range but feel as mixing increases
it will settle just above this level. The next question is timing of
possible storms into the terminals. Latest short-term guidance
suggest the best potential will be later tonight as a weakening
convective system tracks to the east. However, for MCI and especially
STJ, there may be some storms develop earlier in the evening as the
warm front lifts northward. This activity should lift northward with
the warm front before the more solid looking activity moves in
overnight. MVFR to perhaps IFR ceilings should continue in the wake
of the overnight convection and will likely persist through the end
of the forecast period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB






000
FXUS63 KEAX 242016
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
316 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Cloud cover has lingered well into the afternoon, inhibiting robust
diurnal heating. Additionally, the moisture plume, in the form of low
to mid 60 degree dewpoints, has been slow to build east. Instead it
has been streaming roughly along the I-35/US-81 corridor into
southern and central Kansas, ahead of the surface low which is still
over western Kansas. With instability parameters not being achieved,
severe convection is unlikely this afternoon and early this evening.
Instead, convection should develop close to the triple point in
western Kansas. There may be some eastward extension of this
convection into northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri this
evening as the warm front becomes well defined in the area. But
again, with limited instability development during the day, the
threat of severe convection along this eastward extension looks to be
low. The convection that does form over western to central Kansas
looks to congeal into a convective system that will then progress
eastward this evening and tonight. This is where things may get
interesting. There will be enough instability advected east ahead of
the system that convection will likely persist. Low level shear
vectors are nearly due west and there is a brief window when
relatively strong DCAPE is present. The area ahead of this convective
line should remain well mixed as well. This all suggest that as the
line moves east, that despite a general weakening trend, there may be
enough strength left in it to produce pockets of strong winds or even
some mesovortex signatures.

The surface low will slowly track across the area late tonight and
through the day Saturday. This will continue to lead to showers and
thunderstorms through the area throughout the day. Saturday
afternoon will need to be watched closely. There will be very strong
convergence along a boundary draped across northern Missouri. Models
also suggest a nose of weak to modest instability along this
boundary. This all occurs underneath the 500MB upper low. Forecast
soundings are quite interesting in northern Missouri tomorrow
afternoon with very low LCLs and little to no inhibition underneath
the cold upper low. Overall, this has the look of being one of those
days when weak convection produces funnel clouds or even a few weak
tornadoes.

Outside of tonight and tomorrow, the weather looks to be relatively
quiet through the remainder of the forecast. Models move another
closed upper low to our south early next week. We`ll likely only see
increased cloud cover over the southern half of the forecast area as
a result of this feature passing to the south. A general warming
trend is expected through the end of next week. Upper level ridging
will build over the the Intermountain West and into the Rockies
early in the week with this then building east with time. As a
result, conditions look to be dry with temperatures eventually
getting back into the 70s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

This is a complex forecast for the terminals. First, through the
afternoon, MVFR ceilings are expected. There is some potential these
could be in the 1500 ft to 2000 ft range but feel as mixing increases
it will settle just above this level. The next question is timing of
possible storms into the terminals. Latest short-term guidance
suggest the best potential will be later tonight as a weakening
convective system tracks to the east. However, for MCI and especially
STJ, there may be some storms develop earlier in the evening as the
warm front lifts northward. This activity should lift northward with
the warm front before the more solid looking activity moves in
overnight. MVFR to perhaps IFR ceilings should continue in the wake
of the overnight convection and will likely persist through the end
of the forecast period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB






000
FXUS63 KEAX 242016
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
316 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Cloud cover has lingered well into the afternoon, inhibiting robust
diurnal heating. Additionally, the moisture plume, in the form of low
to mid 60 degree dewpoints, has been slow to build east. Instead it
has been streaming roughly along the I-35/US-81 corridor into
southern and central Kansas, ahead of the surface low which is still
over western Kansas. With instability parameters not being achieved,
severe convection is unlikely this afternoon and early this evening.
Instead, convection should develop close to the triple point in
western Kansas. There may be some eastward extension of this
convection into northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri this
evening as the warm front becomes well defined in the area. But
again, with limited instability development during the day, the
threat of severe convection along this eastward extension looks to be
low. The convection that does form over western to central Kansas
looks to congeal into a convective system that will then progress
eastward this evening and tonight. This is where things may get
interesting. There will be enough instability advected east ahead of
the system that convection will likely persist. Low level shear
vectors are nearly due west and there is a brief window when
relatively strong DCAPE is present. The area ahead of this convective
line should remain well mixed as well. This all suggest that as the
line moves east, that despite a general weakening trend, there may be
enough strength left in it to produce pockets of strong winds or even
some mesovortex signatures.

The surface low will slowly track across the area late tonight and
through the day Saturday. This will continue to lead to showers and
thunderstorms through the area throughout the day. Saturday
afternoon will need to be watched closely. There will be very strong
convergence along a boundary draped across northern Missouri. Models
also suggest a nose of weak to modest instability along this
boundary. This all occurs underneath the 500MB upper low. Forecast
soundings are quite interesting in northern Missouri tomorrow
afternoon with very low LCLs and little to no inhibition underneath
the cold upper low. Overall, this has the look of being one of those
days when weak convection produces funnel clouds or even a few weak
tornadoes.

Outside of tonight and tomorrow, the weather looks to be relatively
quiet through the remainder of the forecast. Models move another
closed upper low to our south early next week. We`ll likely only see
increased cloud cover over the southern half of the forecast area as
a result of this feature passing to the south. A general warming
trend is expected through the end of next week. Upper level ridging
will build over the the Intermountain West and into the Rockies
early in the week with this then building east with time. As a
result, conditions look to be dry with temperatures eventually
getting back into the 70s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

This is a complex forecast for the terminals. First, through the
afternoon, MVFR ceilings are expected. There is some potential these
could be in the 1500 ft to 2000 ft range but feel as mixing increases
it will settle just above this level. The next question is timing of
possible storms into the terminals. Latest short-term guidance
suggest the best potential will be later tonight as a weakening
convective system tracks to the east. However, for MCI and especially
STJ, there may be some storms develop earlier in the evening as the
warm front lifts northward. This activity should lift northward with
the warm front before the more solid looking activity moves in
overnight. MVFR to perhaps IFR ceilings should continue in the wake
of the overnight convection and will likely persist through the end
of the forecast period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB






000
FXUS63 KEAX 242016
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
316 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Cloud cover has lingered well into the afternoon, inhibiting robust
diurnal heating. Additionally, the moisture plume, in the form of low
to mid 60 degree dewpoints, has been slow to build east. Instead it
has been streaming roughly along the I-35/US-81 corridor into
southern and central Kansas, ahead of the surface low which is still
over western Kansas. With instability parameters not being achieved,
severe convection is unlikely this afternoon and early this evening.
Instead, convection should develop close to the triple point in
western Kansas. There may be some eastward extension of this
convection into northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri this
evening as the warm front becomes well defined in the area. But
again, with limited instability development during the day, the
threat of severe convection along this eastward extension looks to be
low. The convection that does form over western to central Kansas
looks to congeal into a convective system that will then progress
eastward this evening and tonight. This is where things may get
interesting. There will be enough instability advected east ahead of
the system that convection will likely persist. Low level shear
vectors are nearly due west and there is a brief window when
relatively strong DCAPE is present. The area ahead of this convective
line should remain well mixed as well. This all suggest that as the
line moves east, that despite a general weakening trend, there may be
enough strength left in it to produce pockets of strong winds or even
some mesovortex signatures.

The surface low will slowly track across the area late tonight and
through the day Saturday. This will continue to lead to showers and
thunderstorms through the area throughout the day. Saturday
afternoon will need to be watched closely. There will be very strong
convergence along a boundary draped across northern Missouri. Models
also suggest a nose of weak to modest instability along this
boundary. This all occurs underneath the 500MB upper low. Forecast
soundings are quite interesting in northern Missouri tomorrow
afternoon with very low LCLs and little to no inhibition underneath
the cold upper low. Overall, this has the look of being one of those
days when weak convection produces funnel clouds or even a few weak
tornadoes.

Outside of tonight and tomorrow, the weather looks to be relatively
quiet through the remainder of the forecast. Models move another
closed upper low to our south early next week. We`ll likely only see
increased cloud cover over the southern half of the forecast area as
a result of this feature passing to the south. A general warming
trend is expected through the end of next week. Upper level ridging
will build over the the Intermountain West and into the Rockies
early in the week with this then building east with time. As a
result, conditions look to be dry with temperatures eventually
getting back into the 70s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

This is a complex forecast for the terminals. First, through the
afternoon, MVFR ceilings are expected. There is some potential these
could be in the 1500 ft to 2000 ft range but feel as mixing increases
it will settle just above this level. The next question is timing of
possible storms into the terminals. Latest short-term guidance
suggest the best potential will be later tonight as a weakening
convective system tracks to the east. However, for MCI and especially
STJ, there may be some storms develop earlier in the evening as the
warm front lifts northward. This activity should lift northward with
the warm front before the more solid looking activity moves in
overnight. MVFR to perhaps IFR ceilings should continue in the wake
of the overnight convection and will likely persist through the end
of the forecast period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB






000
FXUS63 KSGF 241947
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
247 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Showers/Thunderstorms which developed in a band of isentropic
upglide earlier this morning have pretty much ended across the
area with only a few light showers remaining over central MO. In
the wake of the precipitation, cloud cover has persisted and has
kept temperatures in the low to mid 50s over parts of south
central MO to the upper 50s and low 60s across much of the
remainder of the CWA. Only the far western CWA has seen
temperatures reach the upper 60s to low 70s so far. Dew points
have been slow to increase as well with readings from the mid 40s
in the eastern Ozarks to the low 60s in the far western CWA.

Main forecast focus will be with thunderstorm/severe weather chances
tonight into Saturday as an upper level wave and cold front push
through the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Persistent cloud cover has held back instability today over the
forecast area, but was starting to increase across the central and
southern Plains ahead of a dryline. Some convection already noted
over southwest Oklahoma ahead of the dryline. Short term models
begin to break out convection well to the west in central Kansas
by 3 to 4 pm and take this activity eastward into northern and
central MO during the evening. This activity may affect extreme
southeast Kansas into west central and central MO by mid to late
evening. In addition, the convection developing in southern
Oklahoma into northeast Texas will shift may make it up into south
central MO this evening.

The area becomes dry slotted by late in the evening and overnight
across the area with main area of convection to the north and
south of the area.

Another slight chance of severe storms will occur ahead of a cold
front over the eastern Ozarks Saturday afternoon. The bulk of the
convection and severe chances are expected to be east of our area
on Saturday.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

After dry conditions on Saturday night into Sunday, an upper low
pressure system will slowly track eastward across the southern
Plains and eventually over the forecast area by early next week.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible as this area
of upper low pressure shifts towards and over the region.

Upper level ridge will begin to work into the area by the middle
of next week with the upper level energy shifting southeast of the
area. Warmer and drier conditions are expected from the middle to
later portion of the upcoming work week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A broad are of low to mid clouds was affecting much of the plains
and the Ozarks region this afternoon as a storm system over the
western plains move towards the region. This will keep the region
under MVFR ceilings along with gusty surface winds from the
southeast into this overnight hours. Low level wind shear will
impact all terminals as strong low level winds moves through the
region.

Slowly improving skies becoming VFR by mid morning Saturday are
expected as surface winds shift out of the southwest and remain
gusty at times.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Hatch






000
FXUS63 KSGF 241947
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
247 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Showers/Thunderstorms which developed in a band of isentropic
upglide earlier this morning have pretty much ended across the
area with only a few light showers remaining over central MO. In
the wake of the precipitation, cloud cover has persisted and has
kept temperatures in the low to mid 50s over parts of south
central MO to the upper 50s and low 60s across much of the
remainder of the CWA. Only the far western CWA has seen
temperatures reach the upper 60s to low 70s so far. Dew points
have been slow to increase as well with readings from the mid 40s
in the eastern Ozarks to the low 60s in the far western CWA.

Main forecast focus will be with thunderstorm/severe weather chances
tonight into Saturday as an upper level wave and cold front push
through the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Persistent cloud cover has held back instability today over the
forecast area, but was starting to increase across the central and
southern Plains ahead of a dryline. Some convection already noted
over southwest Oklahoma ahead of the dryline. Short term models
begin to break out convection well to the west in central Kansas
by 3 to 4 pm and take this activity eastward into northern and
central MO during the evening. This activity may affect extreme
southeast Kansas into west central and central MO by mid to late
evening. In addition, the convection developing in southern
Oklahoma into northeast Texas will shift may make it up into south
central MO this evening.

The area becomes dry slotted by late in the evening and overnight
across the area with main area of convection to the north and
south of the area.

Another slight chance of severe storms will occur ahead of a cold
front over the eastern Ozarks Saturday afternoon. The bulk of the
convection and severe chances are expected to be east of our area
on Saturday.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

After dry conditions on Saturday night into Sunday, an upper low
pressure system will slowly track eastward across the southern
Plains and eventually over the forecast area by early next week.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible as this area
of upper low pressure shifts towards and over the region.

Upper level ridge will begin to work into the area by the middle
of next week with the upper level energy shifting southeast of the
area. Warmer and drier conditions are expected from the middle to
later portion of the upcoming work week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A broad are of low to mid clouds was affecting much of the plains
and the Ozarks region this afternoon as a storm system over the
western plains move towards the region. This will keep the region
under MVFR ceilings along with gusty surface winds from the
southeast into this overnight hours. Low level wind shear will
impact all terminals as strong low level winds moves through the
region.

Slowly improving skies becoming VFR by mid morning Saturday are
expected as surface winds shift out of the southwest and remain
gusty at times.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Hatch







000
FXUS63 KSGF 241947
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
247 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Showers/Thunderstorms which developed in a band of isentropic
upglide earlier this morning have pretty much ended across the
area with only a few light showers remaining over central MO. In
the wake of the precipitation, cloud cover has persisted and has
kept temperatures in the low to mid 50s over parts of south
central MO to the upper 50s and low 60s across much of the
remainder of the CWA. Only the far western CWA has seen
temperatures reach the upper 60s to low 70s so far. Dew points
have been slow to increase as well with readings from the mid 40s
in the eastern Ozarks to the low 60s in the far western CWA.

Main forecast focus will be with thunderstorm/severe weather chances
tonight into Saturday as an upper level wave and cold front push
through the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Persistent cloud cover has held back instability today over the
forecast area, but was starting to increase across the central and
southern Plains ahead of a dryline. Some convection already noted
over southwest Oklahoma ahead of the dryline. Short term models
begin to break out convection well to the west in central Kansas
by 3 to 4 pm and take this activity eastward into northern and
central MO during the evening. This activity may affect extreme
southeast Kansas into west central and central MO by mid to late
evening. In addition, the convection developing in southern
Oklahoma into northeast Texas will shift may make it up into south
central MO this evening.

The area becomes dry slotted by late in the evening and overnight
across the area with main area of convection to the north and
south of the area.

Another slight chance of severe storms will occur ahead of a cold
front over the eastern Ozarks Saturday afternoon. The bulk of the
convection and severe chances are expected to be east of our area
on Saturday.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

After dry conditions on Saturday night into Sunday, an upper low
pressure system will slowly track eastward across the southern
Plains and eventually over the forecast area by early next week.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible as this area
of upper low pressure shifts towards and over the region.

Upper level ridge will begin to work into the area by the middle
of next week with the upper level energy shifting southeast of the
area. Warmer and drier conditions are expected from the middle to
later portion of the upcoming work week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A broad are of low to mid clouds was affecting much of the plains
and the Ozarks region this afternoon as a storm system over the
western plains move towards the region. This will keep the region
under MVFR ceilings along with gusty surface winds from the
southeast into this overnight hours. Low level wind shear will
impact all terminals as strong low level winds moves through the
region.

Slowly improving skies becoming VFR by mid morning Saturday are
expected as surface winds shift out of the southwest and remain
gusty at times.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Hatch






000
FXUS63 KLSX 241755
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1255 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Raised high temperatures a tad for mainly southern and northern
sections of the CWA. Otherwise the previous forecast is on track.
Lots of clouds this afternoon and breezy with seasonable
temperatures. Best chance of precipitation will across parts of
central and southeast Missouri...namely spotty to scattered showers.


Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Sunday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Heights continue to rise across the central CONUS as the deep
cyclone that brought a period of cool weather to the eastern half
of the country spins across New England. Meanwhile, a shortwave
located across southern California and Arizona is expected to move
toward and across the region over the next 48 hours.

Warm advection ahead of the system is well underway with a marked
increase in cloud cover over the last 6 hours.  Guidance in good
agreement that at least a few showers will develop this morning, but
confidence in coverage and how far east they will traverse in
question with dry low level air mass still entrenched across the
CWA. Have kept PoPs less than 30 percent today with the highest
values across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks.  Otherwise,
believe temperatures will be a touch cooler than yesterday due to
the cloud cover with highs in the lower to middle 60s.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms really ramp up tonight as the
storm system approaches. Believe the best time for rapid development
and increase in coverage of preciptiation across the eastern half of
the CWA will occur between 05Z and 09Z. Then a dry slot punches
northeast through the CWA and quickly shifts the focus for rainfall
north and east of the CWA after 10Z. Highest threat of severe
weather has been pushed west across Kansas where best moisture
return will occur along with dry-line interaction.

The shortwave is forecast to become sheared as it moves in an
easterly direction across northern Missouri with the surface low
tracking east-southeast along Interstate 70 on Saturday. Along and
north of the low track, showers and clouds will help keep
temperatures cooler, while in the warm sector the threat of severe
thunderstorms may be realized across parts of southeast Missouri as
temperatures rise into the 70s. Not your typical setup for severe
weather in April, but can`t rule out a few severe storms mainly
south of St. Louis Saturday afternoon.

Cold front sweeps across the remaining CWA Saturday night with rain
ending from north to south. Should see some sunshine on Sunday, but
temperatures will once again struggle to climb back into the 60s
with cold advection taking place.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Temperatures to moderate next week with a dry forecast. Cutoff low
appears to remain south of the CWA Monday through Wednesday with a
large ridge developing across the Rockies by midweek.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Multi-layered clouds are occuring across the region at midday with
all sites VFR at this time. A large area of MVFR cigs will advance
into central MO/KCOU later this afternoon, gradually overspreading
the other terminals later this evening. Main precipitation through
mid-evening will be spotty showers with little if any impact. A
better threat of showers and thunderstorms will exist during the
later part of the evening into the overnight hours and this will
be possible in 2 modes. The first being showers and thunderstorms
which orginate in southeast MO and push northeast and then a large
region of showers and thunderstorms which develops in KS late this
afternoon/this evening and moves east-northeast. Flight conditions
will deteoriate overnight with IFR developing and lasting into the
morning hours.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions are expected until later this evening. Any
precipitation during this time period should be sprinkles or
spotty short-lived showers with little if any impact.

Later this evening a better threat of showers and thunderstorms
will exist and it will coincide with the arrival of MVFR cigs.
Showers and possibly thunderstorms which orginate in southeast MO
will move northeast potentially impacting the terminal after
03-04z. Following this first batch, a large region of showers and
thunderstorms which develops in KS late this afternoon/this
evening may move into KSTL after 09z. Flight conditions will
deteoriate overnight with IFR developing and lasting into Saturday
morning. An additional threat of thunderstorms may unfold after
19-20z Saturday however due to the uncertainty will refrain from
mentioning in the current TAF.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 241755
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1255 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Raised high temperatures a tad for mainly southern and northern
sections of the CWA. Otherwise the previous forecast is on track.
Lots of clouds this afternoon and breezy with seasonable
temperatures. Best chance of precipitation will across parts of
central and southeast Missouri...namely spotty to scattered showers.


Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Sunday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Heights continue to rise across the central CONUS as the deep
cyclone that brought a period of cool weather to the eastern half
of the country spins across New England. Meanwhile, a shortwave
located across southern California and Arizona is expected to move
toward and across the region over the next 48 hours.

Warm advection ahead of the system is well underway with a marked
increase in cloud cover over the last 6 hours.  Guidance in good
agreement that at least a few showers will develop this morning, but
confidence in coverage and how far east they will traverse in
question with dry low level air mass still entrenched across the
CWA. Have kept PoPs less than 30 percent today with the highest
values across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks.  Otherwise,
believe temperatures will be a touch cooler than yesterday due to
the cloud cover with highs in the lower to middle 60s.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms really ramp up tonight as the
storm system approaches. Believe the best time for rapid development
and increase in coverage of preciptiation across the eastern half of
the CWA will occur between 05Z and 09Z. Then a dry slot punches
northeast through the CWA and quickly shifts the focus for rainfall
north and east of the CWA after 10Z. Highest threat of severe
weather has been pushed west across Kansas where best moisture
return will occur along with dry-line interaction.

The shortwave is forecast to become sheared as it moves in an
easterly direction across northern Missouri with the surface low
tracking east-southeast along Interstate 70 on Saturday. Along and
north of the low track, showers and clouds will help keep
temperatures cooler, while in the warm sector the threat of severe
thunderstorms may be realized across parts of southeast Missouri as
temperatures rise into the 70s. Not your typical setup for severe
weather in April, but can`t rule out a few severe storms mainly
south of St. Louis Saturday afternoon.

Cold front sweeps across the remaining CWA Saturday night with rain
ending from north to south. Should see some sunshine on Sunday, but
temperatures will once again struggle to climb back into the 60s
with cold advection taking place.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Temperatures to moderate next week with a dry forecast. Cutoff low
appears to remain south of the CWA Monday through Wednesday with a
large ridge developing across the Rockies by midweek.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

Multi-layered clouds are occuring across the region at midday with
all sites VFR at this time. A large area of MVFR cigs will advance
into central MO/KCOU later this afternoon, gradually overspreading
the other terminals later this evening. Main precipitation through
mid-evening will be spotty showers with little if any impact. A
better threat of showers and thunderstorms will exist during the
later part of the evening into the overnight hours and this will
be possible in 2 modes. The first being showers and thunderstorms
which orginate in southeast MO and push northeast and then a large
region of showers and thunderstorms which develops in KS late this
afternoon/this evening and moves east-northeast. Flight conditions
will deteoriate overnight with IFR developing and lasting into the
morning hours.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions are expected until later this evening. Any
precipitation during this time period should be sprinkles or
spotty short-lived showers with little if any impact.

Later this evening a better threat of showers and thunderstorms
will exist and it will coincide with the arrival of MVFR cigs.
Showers and possibly thunderstorms which orginate in southeast MO
will move northeast potentially impacting the terminal after
03-04z. Following this first batch, a large region of showers and
thunderstorms which develops in KS late this afternoon/this
evening may move into KSTL after 09z. Flight conditions will
deteoriate overnight with IFR developing and lasting into Saturday
morning. An additional threat of thunderstorms may unfold after
19-20z Saturday however due to the uncertainty will refrain from
mentioning in the current TAF.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 241728
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1228 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 626 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Narrow band of convection has finally fired across portions of
southeastern Kansas, northeastern Oklahoma and northwestern
Arkansas. Isentropic upglide in the 300-310K layer matches up
nicely with current placement and timing of convection. The lift
isn`t all that strong, but certainly good enough given 400-800
J/kg of elevated CAPE. This activity is moving into a slightly
more hostile environment, with dry air at the midlevels and
lessening CAPE. That said, this activity is bringing its own
moisture to the party for the time being and should be sustained
well into southwestern Missouri this morning. Low level easterly
flow over central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks will be a bit
more formidable to overcome, as a result showers/storms should
become more diffuse and weaken in this area during the mid/late
morning hours.

Given marginal CAPE and instability, severe weather is not
expected this morning. That said, the occasional perky updraft
will yield small hail from time to time.

Will continue to massage PoPs this morning for timing.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Breezy southeast winds ahead of an approaching warm front are
helping to keep temperatures rather mild this morning, with readings
only falling into the low to mid 50s as of 3 AM.  While the surface
warm front remains well to our southeast, the 925 and 850 fronts are
starting to lift northeast over the region this morning, and short
term guidance continues to suggest that the associated isentropic
ascent will eventually result in showers and thunderstorms
developing across the region closer to daybreak.  While a smattering
of hail will be possible with any of these elevated thunderstorms,
the overall severe weather risk this morning appears quite low.

Convection that develops during the pre-dawn hours will push east
during the morning today, with additional activity possibly moving
in from Arkansas later this morning into this afternoon.  Confidence
in the coverage of this southern activity is low, however, and it`s
quite possible that the afternoon hours end up being dry for many
locations.

By late afternoon and early evening, convection should then fire
along the dryline across central Kansas and Oklahoma, as well as in
the vicinity of the triple point, which will likely be located
somewhere in the vicinity of Topeka, KS.  The overall trend in
guidance over the last 12-24 hours has been to keep the dry line
further west through the afternoon and evening hours, suggesting
that it may take some time this evening/tonight before convection
arrives in the SGF CWA.  This overall trend has been noted by SPC
with their Day 1 Outlook, which now only includes extreme western
Missouri and southeastern Kansas in the Slight Risk area.

In all likelihood, convection will arrive late this evening into the
overnight hours in the form of several clusters/areas of activity.
Shear isn`t an issue with this system, so we will need to carefully
watch for any supercell structures, as well as any line segments
that bow out to the east for a conditional wind/tornado threat.
Steep mid level lapse rates will lend themselves to a threat for
hail, though overall lackluster instability will probably limit this
threat.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

The surface low will then push east across central Missouri during
the morning hours Saturday, with the associated cold front sweeping
across the forecast area.  We will likely see convection strengthen
and/or redevelop along the front as it moves across the CWA, with
any associated severe threat highly dependent on frontal
speed/timing.  Slower timing will give areas ahead of the front a
better opportunity to destabilize, while quicker fropa may keep the
bulk of the convection to our east.

High pressure will nose into the area on Sunday, and with a bit of
shortwave ridging aloft, it doesn`t look like a bad end to the
weekend, with dry conditions and temperatures generally in the 60s.

Rain chances will then return to at least far southwestern Missouri
Monday and Tuesday, as a shortwave diving south across the Great
Basin closes off and slowly tracks east across the southern Plains.
Right now it looks like the forecast area will be on the northern
edge of the rainfall, though any shift north or south with the
system will have a significant impact on rain chances, so stay
tuned.

Beyond Tuesday, the region looks to once again be situated on the
western edge of the Great Lakes/eastern CONUS trough, resulting in
generally dry conditions and seasonable temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A broad are of low to mid clouds was affecting much of the plains
and the Ozarks region this afternoon as a storm system over the
western plains move towards the region. This will keep the region
under MVFR ceilings along with gusty surface winds from the
southeast into this overnight hours. Low level wind shear will
impact all terminals as strong low level winds moves through the
region.

Slowly improving skies becoming VFR by mid morning Saturday are
expected as surface winds shift out of the southwest and remain
gusty at times.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Hatch








000
FXUS63 KEAX 241727
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1227 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1102 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Have made some adjustments to the forecast through the next 12 hours
based on observational trends and latest short-term guidance. The
main thing through the rest of this morning and afternoon was to
adjust PoPs to ongoing showers and storms and track them to the east.
These still look to be non-severe. The focus then shifts to the late
afternoon and evening hours for any severe potential in our forecast
area. The 12Z TOP sounding shows a very deep layer of saturation. The
12Z OUN sounding is much shallower and wind trajectories suggest this
drier air aloft will work its way north and potentially erode some of
the cloud cover over east central KS and west central MO. But the
axis of higher dewpoints is still well to the west of the forecast,
despite a gradual increase in dewpoints over the western half of the
forecast area. Models suggest that we`ll eventually see sufficient
moisture late in the afternoon but the best low-level forcing is
closely tied to the surface boundaries/ triple point which looks to
set up of central KS this afternoon. There may be some additional
activity develop eastward along the now more well defined warm front
but instability will be weaker further east. So all that said,
convection looks to develop in central KS, close to the triple point
this afternoon, and then congeal into a cluster of storms that looks
to track across the northern portions of the forecast. The severity
of this activity should tend to decrease with time and eastward
movement.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Still monitoring the potential for some severe weather across the
area on Friday afternoon and evening, but due to some model shifting
the general trend has been for the bulk of the severe weather to
occur off to the west of the forecast area. That being said, parts
of eastern Kansas and far western Missouri should still be preparing
for the potential of severe weather on Friday...

Surface analysis done earlier this morning has the warm front
associated with a developing surface cyclone well south of the
forecast area. Behind this warm front temperatures are generally in
the lower to middle 60s, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower
60s. Through the day today the surface cyclone, currently situated
over the Rocky Mountain region will deepen as it moves east, and
eventually bottom out around 990 to 995 mb in western Kansas. This
will help transport the warm and moist air northward into the area,
but not without some struggles. Ahead of the surface warm front
elevated showers will form through the early morning hours on
Friday. Antecedent instability is not extreme by any stretch, as
MUCAPE values are currently running in the 200 to 400 J/kg range.
There is also quite a bit of dry air to overcome, so the
isentropically lifted warm air advection showers will likely not
take on the form of widespread convection, rather in the form of
scattered showers with perhaps some isolated thunder embedded. No
severe weather is anticipated with this early morning showery
activity.

The main complication with the afternoon round of convection resides
with the extensive cloud cover, which is anticipated to be around
for quite a while. As far as surface features are concerned for
today, much will depend on whether or not the sun can find a way
through the cloud cover and warm up surface temperatures. The other
factor is whether the better/richer moisture can make it into the
forecast area, and if so how far north the moisture and warm air
will push this afternoon. As was mentioned earlier the anticipated
location surface triple point has shifted well west of the forecast
area, and will probably set up in central Kansas. This will be the
most likely initiation point for the most severe convection in this
region, needless to say quite a distance from this particular area.
However, given the very strong southwest flow aloft and an eventual
ejecting negatively tilted mid level trough, enough ascent could be
working its way into the area to break out some isolated to
scattered convection in the warm sector across SE/EC Kansas and into
WC Missouri. That being said, the most likely area for convection
through the evening hours will be along the better convergence zone
associated with the warm front, where surface winds back to around
120 to 150 degrees. The final destination of this feature is
somewhat uncertain, but at this point in time it appears the warm
front, along with the good surface convergence will end up somewhere
between Interstate-70 and HWY 36, thus putting the far northern
parts of the CWA in the cross hairs for a good push of thunderstorm
activity and heavy rain through the evening and overnight hours. The
bulk of this activity will likely be elevated, as storms would
initiate along the front and push northward into the cool side of
the boundary.

South of the boundary: As was mentioned before, the location of the
surface warm front is in some question, and that will depend on how
morning convection behaves, and whether or not the sun can make an
appearance. Short range hi-res models indicate that the warm front
could make it as far north as the KSTJ area, with temperatures as
warm as the middle to upper 60s, and dew points in the upper 50s to
lower 60s. However, even in that scenario the warm sector would be
incredibly narrow, with temperatures and dewpoints generally
dropping off toward the east of the CWA (central Missouri). So,
bottom line with the warm front probably sagging off to the
southeast the warm sector over the CWA likely only encompasses a
KFNB to KDMO line and areas west of that line. Any storms that can
go up west of that aforementioned line this afternoon should have
enough in the way of CAPE/Shear to become severe, however a capped
off environment deep in the warm sector without much in the way of a
triggering mechanism should limit the convection to isolated to
scattered in coverage. Short range models, such as the Hi-Res NMM
hints at some convection well within the warm sector; so while
having likely storms in the warm sector isn`t likely, there is a
chance that a storm or two could find a weakness in the cap or given
enough mid level ascent could get going in the warm sector.

Parameters:  There is still some question as to how ramped up the
ingredients for this system will be as we go into the
afternoon/evening hours. If recent hi-res models are to be believed,
by 00z, along and west of the aforementioned KFNB/KDMO line, ML CAPE
values could approach 1000-1500 J/Kg. These values would be easier
to attain with some breaks in the clouds, leading to warmer
temperatures. No cloud breaks --> no CAPE. Wind shear will be
incredibly ample to support severe weather. Deep layer shear (0-6km)
will be on the order of approximately 40 to 50 kts, so if the CAPE
does increase through the afternoon, it will have plenty of shear to
support severe storms. Forecast hodographs through the day are also
very impressive, and with a setup more conducive to storm activity
would likely result in several strong tornadoes. But as it stands
with perhaps only isolated development the widespread nature of
tornadic activity will be minimal. That being said, a strongly
clockwise looping of the hodograph, characterized by a veering wind
profile and increasing speeds with height 0-1 SRH values this
afternoon within the warm sector will be between 200 and 300 m2/s2.

Heavy rain potential: PWAT values in the 1 to 1.5 inch range is
slightly high on the anomaly scale, but not high enough to warrant
much of a threat for widespread flash flooding. Areas along and
north of Interstate 70 could see perhaps a couple inches of rain
with the heavier activity, as it moves out of northeast Kansas, into
northwest and northern Missouri. But with the boundary likely
oriented NW/SE and shear vectors pointing W/E there is more of a
normal component to the shear vectors with respect to the
orientation of the warm front, so widespread and long-lasting
training storms will not be a huge concern through the night. That
being said, typical heavy rains associated with deep convection will
likely still occur across northern Missouri and could bring some
isolated to scattered flooding/flash flooding.

So, to summarize... Morning showers will roll through the area
through the mid morning and should cease by early afternoon. Clouds
in the area will likely stymie the chances for severe weather by
limiting surface instability. The most likely area for severe
weather today will be west of a line from KFNB to KDMO. Should the
clouds break up, and a storm is able to go up in the warm sector
west of that line, it will likely be severe, with all hazards (hail,
wind, tornado) possible. Areas north of Interstate 70 will likely
see some heavy rain, which could result in some isolated to
scattered flooding/flash flooding.

Once the upper low moves east of the area, precipitation chances
decrease from west to east through the day on Saturday. Expect a dry
forecast for the rest of the weekend, leading into early next week,
with highs on Sunday in the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Should the current long-term models prove to be correct, next week
appears to be relatively benign across much of the forecast area.
The weather system to watch will be a cut-off low that develops in
the vicinity of the Grand Canyon late in the weekend, traversing
through OK-TX and into the Lower Mississippi Valley by the middle of
next week before continuing its eastward trek and phasing back in
with the overall upper-level pattern. The GFS and ECMWF handle the
low fairly similarly for it being this far out, keeping the system
well to our south with no agreement from the GEM from Tuesday
onward. Therefore, the only PoPs in this forecast period exist
across the far southern tier of counties overnight Monday into
Tuesday as the low passes to the south. Any northern shift in the
track will consequently bring PoP chances further north.

Normal temps for this time of year are generally in the upper 60s
for highs and upper 40s for lows. Comparing this to the forecast for
next week, highs on Monday are currently looking to be a few degrees
below normal, in the lower to middle 60s but will be dependent again
on where the aforementioned low ends up tracking. More cloud cover
would yield lower temps, clearer skies could bump up the temps a few
degrees. Upon the low`s departure, ridging looks to build in on the
backside, warming temps into the 70s in the latter half of the week.
Lower to mid 40s in the forecast for lows overnight Monday,
responding accordingly to the warming trend throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

This is a complex forecast for the terminals. First, through the
afternoon, MVFR ceilings are expected. There is some potential these
could be in the 1500 ft to 2000 ft range but feel as mixing increases
it will settle just above this level. The next question is timing of
possible storms into the terminals. Latest short-term guidance
suggest the best potential will be later tonight as a weakening
convective system tracks to the east. However, for MCI and especially
STJ, there may be some storms develop earlier in the evening as the
warm front lifts northward. This activity should lift northward with
the warm front before the more solid looking activity moves in
overnight. MVFR to perhaps IFR ceilings should continue in the wake
of the overnight convection and will likely persist through the end
of the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB
SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...CDB






000
FXUS63 KEAX 241727
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1227 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1102 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Have made some adjustments to the forecast through the next 12 hours
based on observational trends and latest short-term guidance. The
main thing through the rest of this morning and afternoon was to
adjust PoPs to ongoing showers and storms and track them to the east.
These still look to be non-severe. The focus then shifts to the late
afternoon and evening hours for any severe potential in our forecast
area. The 12Z TOP sounding shows a very deep layer of saturation. The
12Z OUN sounding is much shallower and wind trajectories suggest this
drier air aloft will work its way north and potentially erode some of
the cloud cover over east central KS and west central MO. But the
axis of higher dewpoints is still well to the west of the forecast,
despite a gradual increase in dewpoints over the western half of the
forecast area. Models suggest that we`ll eventually see sufficient
moisture late in the afternoon but the best low-level forcing is
closely tied to the surface boundaries/ triple point which looks to
set up of central KS this afternoon. There may be some additional
activity develop eastward along the now more well defined warm front
but instability will be weaker further east. So all that said,
convection looks to develop in central KS, close to the triple point
this afternoon, and then congeal into a cluster of storms that looks
to track across the northern portions of the forecast. The severity
of this activity should tend to decrease with time and eastward
movement.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Still monitoring the potential for some severe weather across the
area on Friday afternoon and evening, but due to some model shifting
the general trend has been for the bulk of the severe weather to
occur off to the west of the forecast area. That being said, parts
of eastern Kansas and far western Missouri should still be preparing
for the potential of severe weather on Friday...

Surface analysis done earlier this morning has the warm front
associated with a developing surface cyclone well south of the
forecast area. Behind this warm front temperatures are generally in
the lower to middle 60s, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower
60s. Through the day today the surface cyclone, currently situated
over the Rocky Mountain region will deepen as it moves east, and
eventually bottom out around 990 to 995 mb in western Kansas. This
will help transport the warm and moist air northward into the area,
but not without some struggles. Ahead of the surface warm front
elevated showers will form through the early morning hours on
Friday. Antecedent instability is not extreme by any stretch, as
MUCAPE values are currently running in the 200 to 400 J/kg range.
There is also quite a bit of dry air to overcome, so the
isentropically lifted warm air advection showers will likely not
take on the form of widespread convection, rather in the form of
scattered showers with perhaps some isolated thunder embedded. No
severe weather is anticipated with this early morning showery
activity.

The main complication with the afternoon round of convection resides
with the extensive cloud cover, which is anticipated to be around
for quite a while. As far as surface features are concerned for
today, much will depend on whether or not the sun can find a way
through the cloud cover and warm up surface temperatures. The other
factor is whether the better/richer moisture can make it into the
forecast area, and if so how far north the moisture and warm air
will push this afternoon. As was mentioned earlier the anticipated
location surface triple point has shifted well west of the forecast
area, and will probably set up in central Kansas. This will be the
most likely initiation point for the most severe convection in this
region, needless to say quite a distance from this particular area.
However, given the very strong southwest flow aloft and an eventual
ejecting negatively tilted mid level trough, enough ascent could be
working its way into the area to break out some isolated to
scattered convection in the warm sector across SE/EC Kansas and into
WC Missouri. That being said, the most likely area for convection
through the evening hours will be along the better convergence zone
associated with the warm front, where surface winds back to around
120 to 150 degrees. The final destination of this feature is
somewhat uncertain, but at this point in time it appears the warm
front, along with the good surface convergence will end up somewhere
between Interstate-70 and HWY 36, thus putting the far northern
parts of the CWA in the cross hairs for a good push of thunderstorm
activity and heavy rain through the evening and overnight hours. The
bulk of this activity will likely be elevated, as storms would
initiate along the front and push northward into the cool side of
the boundary.

South of the boundary: As was mentioned before, the location of the
surface warm front is in some question, and that will depend on how
morning convection behaves, and whether or not the sun can make an
appearance. Short range hi-res models indicate that the warm front
could make it as far north as the KSTJ area, with temperatures as
warm as the middle to upper 60s, and dew points in the upper 50s to
lower 60s. However, even in that scenario the warm sector would be
incredibly narrow, with temperatures and dewpoints generally
dropping off toward the east of the CWA (central Missouri). So,
bottom line with the warm front probably sagging off to the
southeast the warm sector over the CWA likely only encompasses a
KFNB to KDMO line and areas west of that line. Any storms that can
go up west of that aforementioned line this afternoon should have
enough in the way of CAPE/Shear to become severe, however a capped
off environment deep in the warm sector without much in the way of a
triggering mechanism should limit the convection to isolated to
scattered in coverage. Short range models, such as the Hi-Res NMM
hints at some convection well within the warm sector; so while
having likely storms in the warm sector isn`t likely, there is a
chance that a storm or two could find a weakness in the cap or given
enough mid level ascent could get going in the warm sector.

Parameters:  There is still some question as to how ramped up the
ingredients for this system will be as we go into the
afternoon/evening hours. If recent hi-res models are to be believed,
by 00z, along and west of the aforementioned KFNB/KDMO line, ML CAPE
values could approach 1000-1500 J/Kg. These values would be easier
to attain with some breaks in the clouds, leading to warmer
temperatures. No cloud breaks --> no CAPE. Wind shear will be
incredibly ample to support severe weather. Deep layer shear (0-6km)
will be on the order of approximately 40 to 50 kts, so if the CAPE
does increase through the afternoon, it will have plenty of shear to
support severe storms. Forecast hodographs through the day are also
very impressive, and with a setup more conducive to storm activity
would likely result in several strong tornadoes. But as it stands
with perhaps only isolated development the widespread nature of
tornadic activity will be minimal. That being said, a strongly
clockwise looping of the hodograph, characterized by a veering wind
profile and increasing speeds with height 0-1 SRH values this
afternoon within the warm sector will be between 200 and 300 m2/s2.

Heavy rain potential: PWAT values in the 1 to 1.5 inch range is
slightly high on the anomaly scale, but not high enough to warrant
much of a threat for widespread flash flooding. Areas along and
north of Interstate 70 could see perhaps a couple inches of rain
with the heavier activity, as it moves out of northeast Kansas, into
northwest and northern Missouri. But with the boundary likely
oriented NW/SE and shear vectors pointing W/E there is more of a
normal component to the shear vectors with respect to the
orientation of the warm front, so widespread and long-lasting
training storms will not be a huge concern through the night. That
being said, typical heavy rains associated with deep convection will
likely still occur across northern Missouri and could bring some
isolated to scattered flooding/flash flooding.

So, to summarize... Morning showers will roll through the area
through the mid morning and should cease by early afternoon. Clouds
in the area will likely stymie the chances for severe weather by
limiting surface instability. The most likely area for severe
weather today will be west of a line from KFNB to KDMO. Should the
clouds break up, and a storm is able to go up in the warm sector
west of that line, it will likely be severe, with all hazards (hail,
wind, tornado) possible. Areas north of Interstate 70 will likely
see some heavy rain, which could result in some isolated to
scattered flooding/flash flooding.

Once the upper low moves east of the area, precipitation chances
decrease from west to east through the day on Saturday. Expect a dry
forecast for the rest of the weekend, leading into early next week,
with highs on Sunday in the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Should the current long-term models prove to be correct, next week
appears to be relatively benign across much of the forecast area.
The weather system to watch will be a cut-off low that develops in
the vicinity of the Grand Canyon late in the weekend, traversing
through OK-TX and into the Lower Mississippi Valley by the middle of
next week before continuing its eastward trek and phasing back in
with the overall upper-level pattern. The GFS and ECMWF handle the
low fairly similarly for it being this far out, keeping the system
well to our south with no agreement from the GEM from Tuesday
onward. Therefore, the only PoPs in this forecast period exist
across the far southern tier of counties overnight Monday into
Tuesday as the low passes to the south. Any northern shift in the
track will consequently bring PoP chances further north.

Normal temps for this time of year are generally in the upper 60s
for highs and upper 40s for lows. Comparing this to the forecast for
next week, highs on Monday are currently looking to be a few degrees
below normal, in the lower to middle 60s but will be dependent again
on where the aforementioned low ends up tracking. More cloud cover
would yield lower temps, clearer skies could bump up the temps a few
degrees. Upon the low`s departure, ridging looks to build in on the
backside, warming temps into the 70s in the latter half of the week.
Lower to mid 40s in the forecast for lows overnight Monday,
responding accordingly to the warming trend throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

This is a complex forecast for the terminals. First, through the
afternoon, MVFR ceilings are expected. There is some potential these
could be in the 1500 ft to 2000 ft range but feel as mixing increases
it will settle just above this level. The next question is timing of
possible storms into the terminals. Latest short-term guidance
suggest the best potential will be later tonight as a weakening
convective system tracks to the east. However, for MCI and especially
STJ, there may be some storms develop earlier in the evening as the
warm front lifts northward. This activity should lift northward with
the warm front before the more solid looking activity moves in
overnight. MVFR to perhaps IFR ceilings should continue in the wake
of the overnight convection and will likely persist through the end
of the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB
SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...CDB







000
FXUS63 KEAX 241727
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1227 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1102 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Have made some adjustments to the forecast through the next 12 hours
based on observational trends and latest short-term guidance. The
main thing through the rest of this morning and afternoon was to
adjust PoPs to ongoing showers and storms and track them to the east.
These still look to be non-severe. The focus then shifts to the late
afternoon and evening hours for any severe potential in our forecast
area. The 12Z TOP sounding shows a very deep layer of saturation. The
12Z OUN sounding is much shallower and wind trajectories suggest this
drier air aloft will work its way north and potentially erode some of
the cloud cover over east central KS and west central MO. But the
axis of higher dewpoints is still well to the west of the forecast,
despite a gradual increase in dewpoints over the western half of the
forecast area. Models suggest that we`ll eventually see sufficient
moisture late in the afternoon but the best low-level forcing is
closely tied to the surface boundaries/ triple point which looks to
set up of central KS this afternoon. There may be some additional
activity develop eastward along the now more well defined warm front
but instability will be weaker further east. So all that said,
convection looks to develop in central KS, close to the triple point
this afternoon, and then congeal into a cluster of storms that looks
to track across the northern portions of the forecast. The severity
of this activity should tend to decrease with time and eastward
movement.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Still monitoring the potential for some severe weather across the
area on Friday afternoon and evening, but due to some model shifting
the general trend has been for the bulk of the severe weather to
occur off to the west of the forecast area. That being said, parts
of eastern Kansas and far western Missouri should still be preparing
for the potential of severe weather on Friday...

Surface analysis done earlier this morning has the warm front
associated with a developing surface cyclone well south of the
forecast area. Behind this warm front temperatures are generally in
the lower to middle 60s, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower
60s. Through the day today the surface cyclone, currently situated
over the Rocky Mountain region will deepen as it moves east, and
eventually bottom out around 990 to 995 mb in western Kansas. This
will help transport the warm and moist air northward into the area,
but not without some struggles. Ahead of the surface warm front
elevated showers will form through the early morning hours on
Friday. Antecedent instability is not extreme by any stretch, as
MUCAPE values are currently running in the 200 to 400 J/kg range.
There is also quite a bit of dry air to overcome, so the
isentropically lifted warm air advection showers will likely not
take on the form of widespread convection, rather in the form of
scattered showers with perhaps some isolated thunder embedded. No
severe weather is anticipated with this early morning showery
activity.

The main complication with the afternoon round of convection resides
with the extensive cloud cover, which is anticipated to be around
for quite a while. As far as surface features are concerned for
today, much will depend on whether or not the sun can find a way
through the cloud cover and warm up surface temperatures. The other
factor is whether the better/richer moisture can make it into the
forecast area, and if so how far north the moisture and warm air
will push this afternoon. As was mentioned earlier the anticipated
location surface triple point has shifted well west of the forecast
area, and will probably set up in central Kansas. This will be the
most likely initiation point for the most severe convection in this
region, needless to say quite a distance from this particular area.
However, given the very strong southwest flow aloft and an eventual
ejecting negatively tilted mid level trough, enough ascent could be
working its way into the area to break out some isolated to
scattered convection in the warm sector across SE/EC Kansas and into
WC Missouri. That being said, the most likely area for convection
through the evening hours will be along the better convergence zone
associated with the warm front, where surface winds back to around
120 to 150 degrees. The final destination of this feature is
somewhat uncertain, but at this point in time it appears the warm
front, along with the good surface convergence will end up somewhere
between Interstate-70 and HWY 36, thus putting the far northern
parts of the CWA in the cross hairs for a good push of thunderstorm
activity and heavy rain through the evening and overnight hours. The
bulk of this activity will likely be elevated, as storms would
initiate along the front and push northward into the cool side of
the boundary.

South of the boundary: As was mentioned before, the location of the
surface warm front is in some question, and that will depend on how
morning convection behaves, and whether or not the sun can make an
appearance. Short range hi-res models indicate that the warm front
could make it as far north as the KSTJ area, with temperatures as
warm as the middle to upper 60s, and dew points in the upper 50s to
lower 60s. However, even in that scenario the warm sector would be
incredibly narrow, with temperatures and dewpoints generally
dropping off toward the east of the CWA (central Missouri). So,
bottom line with the warm front probably sagging off to the
southeast the warm sector over the CWA likely only encompasses a
KFNB to KDMO line and areas west of that line. Any storms that can
go up west of that aforementioned line this afternoon should have
enough in the way of CAPE/Shear to become severe, however a capped
off environment deep in the warm sector without much in the way of a
triggering mechanism should limit the convection to isolated to
scattered in coverage. Short range models, such as the Hi-Res NMM
hints at some convection well within the warm sector; so while
having likely storms in the warm sector isn`t likely, there is a
chance that a storm or two could find a weakness in the cap or given
enough mid level ascent could get going in the warm sector.

Parameters:  There is still some question as to how ramped up the
ingredients for this system will be as we go into the
afternoon/evening hours. If recent hi-res models are to be believed,
by 00z, along and west of the aforementioned KFNB/KDMO line, ML CAPE
values could approach 1000-1500 J/Kg. These values would be easier
to attain with some breaks in the clouds, leading to warmer
temperatures. No cloud breaks --> no CAPE. Wind shear will be
incredibly ample to support severe weather. Deep layer shear (0-6km)
will be on the order of approximately 40 to 50 kts, so if the CAPE
does increase through the afternoon, it will have plenty of shear to
support severe storms. Forecast hodographs through the day are also
very impressive, and with a setup more conducive to storm activity
would likely result in several strong tornadoes. But as it stands
with perhaps only isolated development the widespread nature of
tornadic activity will be minimal. That being said, a strongly
clockwise looping of the hodograph, characterized by a veering wind
profile and increasing speeds with height 0-1 SRH values this
afternoon within the warm sector will be between 200 and 300 m2/s2.

Heavy rain potential: PWAT values in the 1 to 1.5 inch range is
slightly high on the anomaly scale, but not high enough to warrant
much of a threat for widespread flash flooding. Areas along and
north of Interstate 70 could see perhaps a couple inches of rain
with the heavier activity, as it moves out of northeast Kansas, into
northwest and northern Missouri. But with the boundary likely
oriented NW/SE and shear vectors pointing W/E there is more of a
normal component to the shear vectors with respect to the
orientation of the warm front, so widespread and long-lasting
training storms will not be a huge concern through the night. That
being said, typical heavy rains associated with deep convection will
likely still occur across northern Missouri and could bring some
isolated to scattered flooding/flash flooding.

So, to summarize... Morning showers will roll through the area
through the mid morning and should cease by early afternoon. Clouds
in the area will likely stymie the chances for severe weather by
limiting surface instability. The most likely area for severe
weather today will be west of a line from KFNB to KDMO. Should the
clouds break up, and a storm is able to go up in the warm sector
west of that line, it will likely be severe, with all hazards (hail,
wind, tornado) possible. Areas north of Interstate 70 will likely
see some heavy rain, which could result in some isolated to
scattered flooding/flash flooding.

Once the upper low moves east of the area, precipitation chances
decrease from west to east through the day on Saturday. Expect a dry
forecast for the rest of the weekend, leading into early next week,
with highs on Sunday in the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Should the current long-term models prove to be correct, next week
appears to be relatively benign across much of the forecast area.
The weather system to watch will be a cut-off low that develops in
the vicinity of the Grand Canyon late in the weekend, traversing
through OK-TX and into the Lower Mississippi Valley by the middle of
next week before continuing its eastward trek and phasing back in
with the overall upper-level pattern. The GFS and ECMWF handle the
low fairly similarly for it being this far out, keeping the system
well to our south with no agreement from the GEM from Tuesday
onward. Therefore, the only PoPs in this forecast period exist
across the far southern tier of counties overnight Monday into
Tuesday as the low passes to the south. Any northern shift in the
track will consequently bring PoP chances further north.

Normal temps for this time of year are generally in the upper 60s
for highs and upper 40s for lows. Comparing this to the forecast for
next week, highs on Monday are currently looking to be a few degrees
below normal, in the lower to middle 60s but will be dependent again
on where the aforementioned low ends up tracking. More cloud cover
would yield lower temps, clearer skies could bump up the temps a few
degrees. Upon the low`s departure, ridging looks to build in on the
backside, warming temps into the 70s in the latter half of the week.
Lower to mid 40s in the forecast for lows overnight Monday,
responding accordingly to the warming trend throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

This is a complex forecast for the terminals. First, through the
afternoon, MVFR ceilings are expected. There is some potential these
could be in the 1500 ft to 2000 ft range but feel as mixing increases
it will settle just above this level. The next question is timing of
possible storms into the terminals. Latest short-term guidance
suggest the best potential will be later tonight as a weakening
convective system tracks to the east. However, for MCI and especially
STJ, there may be some storms develop earlier in the evening as the
warm front lifts northward. This activity should lift northward with
the warm front before the more solid looking activity moves in
overnight. MVFR to perhaps IFR ceilings should continue in the wake
of the overnight convection and will likely persist through the end
of the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB
SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...CDB






000
FXUS63 KEAX 241603
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1103 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1102 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Have made some adjustments to the forecast through the next 12 hours
based on observational trends and latest short-term guidance. The
main thing through the rest of this morning and afternoon was to
adjust PoPs to ongoing showers and storms and track them to the east.
These still look to be non-severe. The focus then shifts to the late
afternoon and evening hours for any severe potential in our forecast
area. The 12Z TOP sounding shows a very deep layer of saturation. The
12Z OUN sounding is much shallower and wind trajectories suggest this
drier air aloft will work its way north and potentially erode some of
the cloud cover over east central KS and west central MO. But the
axis of higher dewpoints is still well to the west of the forecast,
despite a gradual increase in dewpoints over the western half of the
forecast area. Models suggest that we`ll eventually see sufficient
moisture late in the afternoon but the best low-level forcing is
closely tied to the surface boundaries/ triple point which looks to
set up of central KS this afternoon. There may be some additional
activity develop eastward along the now more well defined warm front
but instability will be weaker further east. So all that said,
convection looks to develop in central KS, close to the triple point
this afternoon, and then congeal into a cluster of storms that looks
to track across the northern portions of the forecast. The severity
of this activity should tend to decrease with time and eastward
movement.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Still monitoring the potential for some severe weather across the
area on Friday afternoon and evening, but due to some model shifting
the general trend has been for the bulk of the severe weather to
occur off to the west of the forecast area. That being said, parts
of eastern Kansas and far western Missouri should still be preparing
for the potential of severe weather on Friday...

Surface analysis done earlier this morning has the warm front
associated with a developing surface cyclone well south of the
forecast area. Behind this warm front temperatures are generally in
the lower to middle 60s, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower
60s. Through the day today the surface cyclone, currently situated
over the Rocky Mountain region will deepen as it moves east, and
eventually bottom out around 990 to 995 mb in western Kansas. This
will help transport the warm and moist air northward into the area,
but not without some struggles. Ahead of the surface warm front
elevated showers will form through the early morning hours on
Friday. Antecedent instability is not extreme by any stretch, as
MUCAPE values are currently running in the 200 to 400 J/kg range.
There is also quite a bit of dry air to overcome, so the
isentropically lifted warm air advection showers will likely not
take on the form of widespread convection, rather in the form of
scattered showers with perhaps some isolated thunder embedded. No
severe weather is anticipated with this early morning showery
activity.

The main complication with the afternoon round of convection resides
with the extensive cloud cover, which is anticipated to be around
for quite a while. As far as surface features are concerned for
today, much will depend on whether or not the sun can find a way
through the cloud cover and warm up surface temperatures. The other
factor is whether the better/richer moisture can make it into the
forecast area, and if so how far north the moisture and warm air
will push this afternoon. As was mentioned earlier the anticipated
location surface triple point has shifted well west of the forecast
area, and will probably set up in central Kansas. This will be the
most likely initiation point for the most severe convection in this
region, needless to say quite a distance from this particular area.
However, given the very strong southwest flow aloft and an eventual
ejecting negatively tilted mid level trough, enough ascent could be
working its way into the area to break out some isolated to
scattered convection in the warm sector across SE/EC Kansas and into
WC Missouri. That being said, the most likely area for convection
through the evening hours will be along the better convergence zone
associated with the warm front, where surface winds back to around
120 to 150 degrees. The final destination of this feature is
somewhat uncertain, but at this point in time it appears the warm
front, along with the good surface convergence will end up somewhere
between Interstate-70 and HWY 36, thus putting the far northern
parts of the CWA in the cross hairs for a good push of thunderstorm
activity and heavy rain through the evening and overnight hours. The
bulk of this activity will likely be elevated, as storms would
initiate along the front and push northward into the cool side of
the boundary.

South of the boundary: As was mentioned before, the location of the
surface warm front is in some question, and that will depend on how
morning convection behaves, and whether or not the sun can make an
appearance. Short range hi-res models indicate that the warm front
could make it as far north as the KSTJ area, with temperatures as
warm as the middle to upper 60s, and dew points in the upper 50s to
lower 60s. However, even in that scenario the warm sector would be
incredibly narrow, with temperatures and dewpoints generally
dropping off toward the east of the CWA (central Missouri). So,
bottom line with the warm front probably sagging off to the
southeast the warm sector over the CWA likely only encompasses a
KFNB to KDMO line and areas west of that line. Any storms that can
go up west of that aforementioned line this afternoon should have
enough in the way of CAPE/Shear to become severe, however a capped
off environment deep in the warm sector without much in the way of a
triggering mechanism should limit the convection to isolated to
scattered in coverage. Short range models, such as the Hi-Res NMM
hints at some convection well within the warm sector; so while
having likely storms in the warm sector isn`t likely, there is a
chance that a storm or two could find a weakness in the cap or given
enough mid level ascent could get going in the warm sector.

Parameters:  There is still some question as to how ramped up the
ingredients for this system will be as we go into the
afternoon/evening hours. If recent hi-res models are to be believed,
by 00z, along and west of the aforementioned KFNB/KDMO line, ML CAPE
values could approach 1000-1500 J/Kg. These values would be easier
to attain with some breaks in the clouds, leading to warmer
temperatures. No cloud breaks --> no CAPE. Wind shear will be
incredibly ample to support severe weather. Deep layer shear (0-6km)
will be on the order of approximately 40 to 50 kts, so if the CAPE
does increase through the afternoon, it will have plenty of shear to
support severe storms. Forecast hodographs through the day are also
very impressive, and with a setup more conducive to storm activity
would likely result in several strong tornadoes. But as it stands
with perhaps only isolated development the widespread nature of
tornadic activity will be minimal. That being said, a strongly
clockwise looping of the hodograph, characterized by a veering wind
profile and increasing speeds with height 0-1 SRH values this
afternoon within the warm sector will be between 200 and 300 m2/s2.

Heavy rain potential: PWAT values in the 1 to 1.5 inch range is
slightly high on the anomaly scale, but not high enough to warrant
much of a threat for widespread flash flooding. Areas along and
north of Interstate 70 could see perhaps a couple inches of rain
with the heavier activity, as it moves out of northeast Kansas, into
northwest and northern Missouri. But with the boundary likely
oriented NW/SE and shear vectors pointing W/E there is more of a
normal component to the shear vectors with respect to the
orientation of the warm front, so widespread and long-lasting
training storms will not be a huge concern through the night. That
being said, typical heavy rains associated with deep convection will
likely still occur across northern Missouri and could bring some
isolated to scattered flooding/flash flooding.

So, to summarize... Morning showers will roll through the area
through the mid morning and should cease by early afternoon. Clouds
in the area will likely stymie the chances for severe weather by
limiting surface instability. The most likely area for severe
weather today will be west of a line from KFNB to KDMO. Should the
clouds break up, and a storm is able to go up in the warm sector
west of that line, it will likely be severe, with all hazards (hail,
wind, tornado) possible. Areas north of Interstate 70 will likely
see some heavy rain, which could result in some isolated to
scattered flooding/flash flooding.

Once the upper low moves east of the area, precipitation chances
decrease from west to east through the day on Saturday. Expect a dry
forecast for the rest of the weekend, leading into early next week,
with highs on Sunday in the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Should the current long-term models prove to be correct, next week
appears to be relatively benign across much of the forecast area.
The weather system to watch will be a cut-off low that develops in
the vicinity of the Grand Canyon late in the weekend, traversing
through OK-TX and into the Lower Mississippi Valley by the middle of
next week before continuing its eastward trek and phasing back in
with the overall upper-level pattern. The GFS and ECMWF handle the
low fairly similarly for it being this far out, keeping the system
well to our south with no agreement from the GEM from Tuesday
onward. Therefore, the only PoPs in this forecast period exist
across the far southern tier of counties overnight Monday into
Tuesday as the low passes to the south. Any northern shift in the
track will consequently bring PoP chances further north.

Normal temps for this time of year are generally in the upper 60s
for highs and upper 40s for lows. Comparing this to the forecast for
next week, highs on Monday are currently looking to be a few degrees
below normal, in the lower to middle 60s but will be dependent again
on where the aforementioned low ends up tracking. More cloud cover
would yield lower temps, clearer skies could bump up the temps a few
degrees. Upon the low`s departure, ridging looks to build in on the
backside, warming temps into the 70s in the latter half of the week.
Lower to mid 40s in the forecast for lows overnight Monday,
responding accordingly to the warming trend throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will move through the
terminals through the mid morning hours, and should clear the area by
or shortly after 15z. MVFR CIGs remain in place through the day, then
another round of more widespread thunderstorms move in later tonight.
KSTJ should see T-storms first, followed by the KC Metro terminals.
Expect the heaviest rain to pass through fairly quickly, but
lingering light rain with embedded thunder could persist through most
of the night on Friday night.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB
SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 241603
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1103 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1102 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Have made some adjustments to the forecast through the next 12 hours
based on observational trends and latest short-term guidance. The
main thing through the rest of this morning and afternoon was to
adjust PoPs to ongoing showers and storms and track them to the east.
These still look to be non-severe. The focus then shifts to the late
afternoon and evening hours for any severe potential in our forecast
area. The 12Z TOP sounding shows a very deep layer of saturation. The
12Z OUN sounding is much shallower and wind trajectories suggest this
drier air aloft will work its way north and potentially erode some of
the cloud cover over east central KS and west central MO. But the
axis of higher dewpoints is still well to the west of the forecast,
despite a gradual increase in dewpoints over the western half of the
forecast area. Models suggest that we`ll eventually see sufficient
moisture late in the afternoon but the best low-level forcing is
closely tied to the surface boundaries/ triple point which looks to
set up of central KS this afternoon. There may be some additional
activity develop eastward along the now more well defined warm front
but instability will be weaker further east. So all that said,
convection looks to develop in central KS, close to the triple point
this afternoon, and then congeal into a cluster of storms that looks
to track across the northern portions of the forecast. The severity
of this activity should tend to decrease with time and eastward
movement.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Still monitoring the potential for some severe weather across the
area on Friday afternoon and evening, but due to some model shifting
the general trend has been for the bulk of the severe weather to
occur off to the west of the forecast area. That being said, parts
of eastern Kansas and far western Missouri should still be preparing
for the potential of severe weather on Friday...

Surface analysis done earlier this morning has the warm front
associated with a developing surface cyclone well south of the
forecast area. Behind this warm front temperatures are generally in
the lower to middle 60s, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower
60s. Through the day today the surface cyclone, currently situated
over the Rocky Mountain region will deepen as it moves east, and
eventually bottom out around 990 to 995 mb in western Kansas. This
will help transport the warm and moist air northward into the area,
but not without some struggles. Ahead of the surface warm front
elevated showers will form through the early morning hours on
Friday. Antecedent instability is not extreme by any stretch, as
MUCAPE values are currently running in the 200 to 400 J/kg range.
There is also quite a bit of dry air to overcome, so the
isentropically lifted warm air advection showers will likely not
take on the form of widespread convection, rather in the form of
scattered showers with perhaps some isolated thunder embedded. No
severe weather is anticipated with this early morning showery
activity.

The main complication with the afternoon round of convection resides
with the extensive cloud cover, which is anticipated to be around
for quite a while. As far as surface features are concerned for
today, much will depend on whether or not the sun can find a way
through the cloud cover and warm up surface temperatures. The other
factor is whether the better/richer moisture can make it into the
forecast area, and if so how far north the moisture and warm air
will push this afternoon. As was mentioned earlier the anticipated
location surface triple point has shifted well west of the forecast
area, and will probably set up in central Kansas. This will be the
most likely initiation point for the most severe convection in this
region, needless to say quite a distance from this particular area.
However, given the very strong southwest flow aloft and an eventual
ejecting negatively tilted mid level trough, enough ascent could be
working its way into the area to break out some isolated to
scattered convection in the warm sector across SE/EC Kansas and into
WC Missouri. That being said, the most likely area for convection
through the evening hours will be along the better convergence zone
associated with the warm front, where surface winds back to around
120 to 150 degrees. The final destination of this feature is
somewhat uncertain, but at this point in time it appears the warm
front, along with the good surface convergence will end up somewhere
between Interstate-70 and HWY 36, thus putting the far northern
parts of the CWA in the cross hairs for a good push of thunderstorm
activity and heavy rain through the evening and overnight hours. The
bulk of this activity will likely be elevated, as storms would
initiate along the front and push northward into the cool side of
the boundary.

South of the boundary: As was mentioned before, the location of the
surface warm front is in some question, and that will depend on how
morning convection behaves, and whether or not the sun can make an
appearance. Short range hi-res models indicate that the warm front
could make it as far north as the KSTJ area, with temperatures as
warm as the middle to upper 60s, and dew points in the upper 50s to
lower 60s. However, even in that scenario the warm sector would be
incredibly narrow, with temperatures and dewpoints generally
dropping off toward the east of the CWA (central Missouri). So,
bottom line with the warm front probably sagging off to the
southeast the warm sector over the CWA likely only encompasses a
KFNB to KDMO line and areas west of that line. Any storms that can
go up west of that aforementioned line this afternoon should have
enough in the way of CAPE/Shear to become severe, however a capped
off environment deep in the warm sector without much in the way of a
triggering mechanism should limit the convection to isolated to
scattered in coverage. Short range models, such as the Hi-Res NMM
hints at some convection well within the warm sector; so while
having likely storms in the warm sector isn`t likely, there is a
chance that a storm or two could find a weakness in the cap or given
enough mid level ascent could get going in the warm sector.

Parameters:  There is still some question as to how ramped up the
ingredients for this system will be as we go into the
afternoon/evening hours. If recent hi-res models are to be believed,
by 00z, along and west of the aforementioned KFNB/KDMO line, ML CAPE
values could approach 1000-1500 J/Kg. These values would be easier
to attain with some breaks in the clouds, leading to warmer
temperatures. No cloud breaks --> no CAPE. Wind shear will be
incredibly ample to support severe weather. Deep layer shear (0-6km)
will be on the order of approximately 40 to 50 kts, so if the CAPE
does increase through the afternoon, it will have plenty of shear to
support severe storms. Forecast hodographs through the day are also
very impressive, and with a setup more conducive to storm activity
would likely result in several strong tornadoes. But as it stands
with perhaps only isolated development the widespread nature of
tornadic activity will be minimal. That being said, a strongly
clockwise looping of the hodograph, characterized by a veering wind
profile and increasing speeds with height 0-1 SRH values this
afternoon within the warm sector will be between 200 and 300 m2/s2.

Heavy rain potential: PWAT values in the 1 to 1.5 inch range is
slightly high on the anomaly scale, but not high enough to warrant
much of a threat for widespread flash flooding. Areas along and
north of Interstate 70 could see perhaps a couple inches of rain
with the heavier activity, as it moves out of northeast Kansas, into
northwest and northern Missouri. But with the boundary likely
oriented NW/SE and shear vectors pointing W/E there is more of a
normal component to the shear vectors with respect to the
orientation of the warm front, so widespread and long-lasting
training storms will not be a huge concern through the night. That
being said, typical heavy rains associated with deep convection will
likely still occur across northern Missouri and could bring some
isolated to scattered flooding/flash flooding.

So, to summarize... Morning showers will roll through the area
through the mid morning and should cease by early afternoon. Clouds
in the area will likely stymie the chances for severe weather by
limiting surface instability. The most likely area for severe
weather today will be west of a line from KFNB to KDMO. Should the
clouds break up, and a storm is able to go up in the warm sector
west of that line, it will likely be severe, with all hazards (hail,
wind, tornado) possible. Areas north of Interstate 70 will likely
see some heavy rain, which could result in some isolated to
scattered flooding/flash flooding.

Once the upper low moves east of the area, precipitation chances
decrease from west to east through the day on Saturday. Expect a dry
forecast for the rest of the weekend, leading into early next week,
with highs on Sunday in the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Should the current long-term models prove to be correct, next week
appears to be relatively benign across much of the forecast area.
The weather system to watch will be a cut-off low that develops in
the vicinity of the Grand Canyon late in the weekend, traversing
through OK-TX and into the Lower Mississippi Valley by the middle of
next week before continuing its eastward trek and phasing back in
with the overall upper-level pattern. The GFS and ECMWF handle the
low fairly similarly for it being this far out, keeping the system
well to our south with no agreement from the GEM from Tuesday
onward. Therefore, the only PoPs in this forecast period exist
across the far southern tier of counties overnight Monday into
Tuesday as the low passes to the south. Any northern shift in the
track will consequently bring PoP chances further north.

Normal temps for this time of year are generally in the upper 60s
for highs and upper 40s for lows. Comparing this to the forecast for
next week, highs on Monday are currently looking to be a few degrees
below normal, in the lower to middle 60s but will be dependent again
on where the aforementioned low ends up tracking. More cloud cover
would yield lower temps, clearer skies could bump up the temps a few
degrees. Upon the low`s departure, ridging looks to build in on the
backside, warming temps into the 70s in the latter half of the week.
Lower to mid 40s in the forecast for lows overnight Monday,
responding accordingly to the warming trend throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will move through the
terminals through the mid morning hours, and should clear the area by
or shortly after 15z. MVFR CIGs remain in place through the day, then
another round of more widespread thunderstorms move in later tonight.
KSTJ should see T-storms first, followed by the KC Metro terminals.
Expect the heaviest rain to pass through fairly quickly, but
lingering light rain with embedded thunder could persist through most
of the night on Friday night.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB
SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...Leighton







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