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000
FXUS63 KLSX 312027
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
327 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Another cool and quiet night is expected, as lows overnight drop to
the low to middle 60s across the area, still below normal for this
time of year. Water vapor imagery indicates a shortwave currently
over southwestern Minnesota and northwestern Iowa, and a NW-SE
oriented band of precipitation over western Iowa. The shortwave will
continue to drop southeastward this evening and tonight, and
could be enough to trigger some showers and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm over far northeast Missouri and west central Illinois.
Feel the window for precipitation in this area is fairly small, as
the shortwave will remain transient and should be east of the
Mississippi River and out of our CWFA by around 06-07Z.  Otherwise,
diurnal cumulus is expected to dissipate across much of the area not
long after sunset, with winds remaining light and variable through
the night.

JP



.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Slight changes may be in the offing regarding sensible weather
Friday/Saturday as longwave trough continues to dominate weather not
only over our region...but also the eastern two-thirds of the country.
Although shra/ts has been largely non-existent the past several days...
do believe there is a better chance of seeing isolated activity on
Friday/Saturday...due to better upper-level support and better instability.
Otherwise...persistence is the way to go wrt temps...seasonably cool for
early August.

Temperatures will moderate back toward normal to start off the new work
week with seasonably warm conditions expected for the middle of next week.
Pattern may become more favorable for rain as mid/upper levels become
quasi-zonal and moisture increases ahead of a slow-moving cold front.
However...PoPs only climb into the chance category due to substantial
differences in timing/track of closed low which develops from the northern
Plains.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

VFR conditions and generally light and variable winds will prevail
through the period for all TAF sites with just a couple
exceptions. First, recent guidance indicates the potential for
light showers overnight tonight over southern IA and northern MO,
but given uncertainty whether it will occur at the terminal, have
not mentioned in the TAF. Second exception is radiation fog
development during the late overnight and early morning, which
would be similar to what occurred last night. Have included a few
hours of fog for KSUS, KCPS, and KUIN, which could reduce
visibilities down to MVFR/IFR conditions. However, any fog that
develops should be quick to burn off after sunrise Friday.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Scattered diurnal
cumulus today will return Friday, becoming broken by the early
afternoon. There is a possibility for some showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon, but given uncertainties regarding
timing and coverage, have not included mention in the TAF at this
time. Light and variable winds today and tonight will become
easterly around 05kt on Friday, and while some radiation fog is
expected around the area late tonight and early Friday morning,
temperature/dewpoint spreads at KSTL do not indicate impacts at
the terminal.

JP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     66  85  65  86 /  10  20  10  20
Quincy          63  81  61  82 /  20  20  10  20
Columbia        63  85  62  84 /  10  20   5  10
Jefferson City  62  85  62  84 /  10  20   5  10
Salem           63  84  61  85 /  10  20  10  20
Farmington      60  81  60  82 /  10  20   5  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 312027
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
327 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Another cool and quiet night is expected, as lows overnight drop to
the low to middle 60s across the area, still below normal for this
time of year. Water vapor imagery indicates a shortwave currently
over southwestern Minnesota and northwestern Iowa, and a NW-SE
oriented band of precipitation over western Iowa. The shortwave will
continue to drop southeastward this evening and tonight, and
could be enough to trigger some showers and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm over far northeast Missouri and west central Illinois.
Feel the window for precipitation in this area is fairly small, as
the shortwave will remain transient and should be east of the
Mississippi River and out of our CWFA by around 06-07Z.  Otherwise,
diurnal cumulus is expected to dissipate across much of the area not
long after sunset, with winds remaining light and variable through
the night.

JP



.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Slight changes may be in the offing regarding sensible weather
Friday/Saturday as longwave trough continues to dominate weather not
only over our region...but also the eastern two-thirds of the country.
Although shra/ts has been largely non-existent the past several days...
do believe there is a better chance of seeing isolated activity on
Friday/Saturday...due to better upper-level support and better instability.
Otherwise...persistence is the way to go wrt temps...seasonably cool for
early August.

Temperatures will moderate back toward normal to start off the new work
week with seasonably warm conditions expected for the middle of next week.
Pattern may become more favorable for rain as mid/upper levels become
quasi-zonal and moisture increases ahead of a slow-moving cold front.
However...PoPs only climb into the chance category due to substantial
differences in timing/track of closed low which develops from the northern
Plains.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

VFR conditions and generally light and variable winds will prevail
through the period for all TAF sites with just a couple
exceptions. First, recent guidance indicates the potential for
light showers overnight tonight over southern IA and northern MO,
but given uncertainty whether it will occur at the terminal, have
not mentioned in the TAF. Second exception is radiation fog
development during the late overnight and early morning, which
would be similar to what occurred last night. Have included a few
hours of fog for KSUS, KCPS, and KUIN, which could reduce
visibilities down to MVFR/IFR conditions. However, any fog that
develops should be quick to burn off after sunrise Friday.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Scattered diurnal
cumulus today will return Friday, becoming broken by the early
afternoon. There is a possibility for some showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon, but given uncertainties regarding
timing and coverage, have not included mention in the TAF at this
time. Light and variable winds today and tonight will become
easterly around 05kt on Friday, and while some radiation fog is
expected around the area late tonight and early Friday morning,
temperature/dewpoint spreads at KSTL do not indicate impacts at
the terminal.

JP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     66  85  65  86 /  10  20  10  20
Quincy          63  81  61  82 /  20  20  10  20
Columbia        63  85  62  84 /  10  20   5  10
Jefferson City  62  85  62  84 /  10  20   5  10
Salem           63  84  61  85 /  10  20  10  20
Farmington      60  81  60  82 /  10  20   5  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






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000
FXUS63 KSGF 312010
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
310 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

There were a few scattered showers across far southern Missouri
today, but most locations remained dry. No precipitation chances
will be needed through the rest of the evening and tonight.
Temperatures will fall into the upper 50s and lower 60s, under
clearing skies and light winds.

The clearing skies and light winds could lend itself to some fog
after midnight. We have visibilities falling to around one mile at
times in the grids and the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

For Friday, showers are expected to remain east of the Ozarks,
giving way to a fabulous early August day. Highs in the 80s will
be common, under mostly sunny skies. A great way to start the
weekend for sure.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

The drying trend will continue through the weekend and into early
next week as warmer temperatures are expected. As a matter of
fact, readings in the upper 80s and lower 90s are expected on an
afternoon basis Monday through Wednesday. The warm and dry weather
will occur in response to upper level height rises and the onset
of southerly winds.

We finally may receive a widespread rainfall Wednesday night into
Thursday as an upper level wave forces a cold front across
southern Missouri. The models have been consistently showing a
signal for widespread rain during that period.

Have a great weekend !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Isolated to widely scattered showers will continue across southern
Missouri this afternoon as an upper level low pressure system
passes south of the region. Ceilings in the lower end VFR and
higher end MVFR categories will continue. Spotty IFR will also
continue around Branson early this afternoon. Clouds will then
decrease tonight which will lead to fog development. IFR and LIFR
fog appears increasingly likely, especially around Branson. The
fog will then burn off Friday morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 312010
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
310 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

There were a few scattered showers across far southern Missouri
today, but most locations remained dry. No precipitation chances
will be needed through the rest of the evening and tonight.
Temperatures will fall into the upper 50s and lower 60s, under
clearing skies and light winds.

The clearing skies and light winds could lend itself to some fog
after midnight. We have visibilities falling to around one mile at
times in the grids and the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

For Friday, showers are expected to remain east of the Ozarks,
giving way to a fabulous early August day. Highs in the 80s will
be common, under mostly sunny skies. A great way to start the
weekend for sure.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

The drying trend will continue through the weekend and into early
next week as warmer temperatures are expected. As a matter of
fact, readings in the upper 80s and lower 90s are expected on an
afternoon basis Monday through Wednesday. The warm and dry weather
will occur in response to upper level height rises and the onset
of southerly winds.

We finally may receive a widespread rainfall Wednesday night into
Thursday as an upper level wave forces a cold front across
southern Missouri. The models have been consistently showing a
signal for widespread rain during that period.

Have a great weekend !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Isolated to widely scattered showers will continue across southern
Missouri this afternoon as an upper level low pressure system
passes south of the region. Ceilings in the lower end VFR and
higher end MVFR categories will continue. Spotty IFR will also
continue around Branson early this afternoon. Clouds will then
decrease tonight which will lead to fog development. IFR and LIFR
fog appears increasingly likely, especially around Branson. The
fog will then burn off Friday morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KEAX 311929
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
229 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

In the short term, there is a weak disturbance currently located over
eastern NE that will work into the CWA later tonight. This may allow
for widely scattered light showers and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm to develop over our far northeast zones. The wave is
associated with the outer circulation of an upper level low parked
near the lower Hudson Bay. Another wave is progged to move through
the CWA tomorrow and that too may allow for the development of light
widely scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm... very hit and
miss precip-wise.

Warmer and dry weather is in store for the weekend and into next week
as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west. Temperatures
should return to normal values by Mon into WED. On WED a trough will
work in from the Northern Plains ushering in a cold front. The front
should serve as the focus for precip late WED into WED night and THR
followed by a return of below normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CIGS and VIS are expected through the period. Diurnal CU have
developed and should continue to near sunset before clearing away.
The sfc winds should remain light and variable through the day and
evening with light southerly winds developing tomorrow.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Pietrycha







000
FXUS63 KEAX 311929
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
229 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

In the short term, there is a weak disturbance currently located over
eastern NE that will work into the CWA later tonight. This may allow
for widely scattered light showers and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm to develop over our far northeast zones. The wave is
associated with the outer circulation of an upper level low parked
near the lower Hudson Bay. Another wave is progged to move through
the CWA tomorrow and that too may allow for the development of light
widely scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm... very hit and
miss precip-wise.

Warmer and dry weather is in store for the weekend and into next week
as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west. Temperatures
should return to normal values by Mon into WED. On WED a trough will
work in from the Northern Plains ushering in a cold front. The front
should serve as the focus for precip late WED into WED night and THR
followed by a return of below normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CIGS and VIS are expected through the period. Diurnal CU have
developed and should continue to near sunset before clearing away.
The sfc winds should remain light and variable through the day and
evening with light southerly winds developing tomorrow.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Pietrycha






000
FXUS63 KSGF 311756
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1256 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

The rain that impacted far southern Missouri Wednesday had shifted
to the south with only lingering sprinkles early this morning.
Partial clearing from the north and moist conditions where rain
had fallen was resulting in patchy fog.

The shortwave trough responsible for the recent rainfall will
track southeast across Arkansas today. Scattered showers and
sprinkles will linger today and mainly this morning across far
southern Missouri within an axis of weak mid level deformation
north of the shortwave.

Temperatures will remain cooler than normal today especially under
the clouds closer to the Arkansas border.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

The northwesterly flow aloft will continue the next few days
before the upper ridge out west expands eastward early next week.

A shortwave trough will drop southward across the Great Lakes
region Friday and Saturday. This feature may support the
development of isolated showers across the eastern Ozarks Friday
and Saturday but expect most locations to remain dry.

Temperatures will remain below normal through Saturday then a
warming trend will develop heading into early next week.
Temperatures will be near seasonal mid summer levels Monday and Tuesday.

The next upper level trough and associated front will approach the
region later next week bringing our next substantial chance of
rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Isolated to widely scattered showers will continue across southern
Missouri this afternoon as an upper level low pressure system
passes south of the region. Ceilings in the lower end VFR and
higher end MVFR categories will continue. Spotty IFR will also
continue around Branson early this afternoon. Clouds will then
decrease tonight which will lead to fog development. IFR and LIFR
fog appears increasingly likely, especially around Branson. The
fog will then burn off Friday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KLSX 311744
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1244 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Expect highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s followed by overnight
lows in the lower 60s. Such temperatures are 3-10 degrees below
average for this time of year. Light rain is possible across the
extreme southern CWA today on the northern fringes of an area of
precipitation which is being generated by a shortwave moving from
OK into AR. Isolated to scattered precip is also possible late
this afternoon and early tonight across the northern CWA ahead of
an approaching shortwave which is diving south-southeastward from
ND/MN per 06z water vapor imagery.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Diurnal instability combined with lift ahead of occasional weak
shortwaves might produce iso-sct SH/TS over the next couple of
days, especially during the afternoon hours. Slightly cooler than
average temperatures will continue until the northwest flow
pattern aloft begins to change over the weekend, eventually
becoming quasizonal. After an upper ridge de-amplifies and shifts
into the plains early next week while surface winds turn
southerly, seasonable levels of heat/humidity should return to the
region. The next opportunity for widespread rainfall appears to be
associated with a potential synoptic scale system during the
middle of next week.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

VFR conditions and generally light and variable winds will prevail
through the period for all TAF sites with just a couple
exceptions. First, recent guidance indicates the potential for
light showers overnight tonight over southern IA and northern MO,
but given uncertainty whether it will occur at the terminal, have
not mentioned in the TAF. Second exception is radiation fog
development during the late overnight and early morning, which
would be similar to what occurred last night. Have included a few
hours of fog for KSUS, KCPS, and KUIN, which could reduce
visibilities down to MVFR/IFR conditions. However, any fog that
develops should be quick to burn off after sunrise Friday.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Scattered diurnal
cumulus today will return Friday, becoming broken by the early
afternoon. There is a possibility for some showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon, but given uncertainties regarding
timing and coverage, have not included mention in the TAF at this
time. Light and variable winds today and tonight will become
easterly around 05kt on Friday, and while some radiation fog is
expected around the area late tonight and early Friday morning,
temperature/dewpoint spreads at KSTL do not indicate impacts at
the terminal.

JP

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 311744
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1244 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Expect highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s followed by overnight
lows in the lower 60s. Such temperatures are 3-10 degrees below
average for this time of year. Light rain is possible across the
extreme southern CWA today on the northern fringes of an area of
precipitation which is being generated by a shortwave moving from
OK into AR. Isolated to scattered precip is also possible late
this afternoon and early tonight across the northern CWA ahead of
an approaching shortwave which is diving south-southeastward from
ND/MN per 06z water vapor imagery.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Diurnal instability combined with lift ahead of occasional weak
shortwaves might produce iso-sct SH/TS over the next couple of
days, especially during the afternoon hours. Slightly cooler than
average temperatures will continue until the northwest flow
pattern aloft begins to change over the weekend, eventually
becoming quasizonal. After an upper ridge de-amplifies and shifts
into the plains early next week while surface winds turn
southerly, seasonable levels of heat/humidity should return to the
region. The next opportunity for widespread rainfall appears to be
associated with a potential synoptic scale system during the
middle of next week.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

VFR conditions and generally light and variable winds will prevail
through the period for all TAF sites with just a couple
exceptions. First, recent guidance indicates the potential for
light showers overnight tonight over southern IA and northern MO,
but given uncertainty whether it will occur at the terminal, have
not mentioned in the TAF. Second exception is radiation fog
development during the late overnight and early morning, which
would be similar to what occurred last night. Have included a few
hours of fog for KSUS, KCPS, and KUIN, which could reduce
visibilities down to MVFR/IFR conditions. However, any fog that
develops should be quick to burn off after sunrise Friday.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Scattered diurnal
cumulus today will return Friday, becoming broken by the early
afternoon. There is a possibility for some showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon, but given uncertainties regarding
timing and coverage, have not included mention in the TAF at this
time. Light and variable winds today and tonight will become
easterly around 05kt on Friday, and while some radiation fog is
expected around the area late tonight and early Friday morning,
temperature/dewpoint spreads at KSTL do not indicate impacts at
the terminal.

JP

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 311744
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1244 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Expect highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s followed by overnight
lows in the lower 60s. Such temperatures are 3-10 degrees below
average for this time of year. Light rain is possible across the
extreme southern CWA today on the northern fringes of an area of
precipitation which is being generated by a shortwave moving from
OK into AR. Isolated to scattered precip is also possible late
this afternoon and early tonight across the northern CWA ahead of
an approaching shortwave which is diving south-southeastward from
ND/MN per 06z water vapor imagery.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Diurnal instability combined with lift ahead of occasional weak
shortwaves might produce iso-sct SH/TS over the next couple of
days, especially during the afternoon hours. Slightly cooler than
average temperatures will continue until the northwest flow
pattern aloft begins to change over the weekend, eventually
becoming quasizonal. After an upper ridge de-amplifies and shifts
into the plains early next week while surface winds turn
southerly, seasonable levels of heat/humidity should return to the
region. The next opportunity for widespread rainfall appears to be
associated with a potential synoptic scale system during the
middle of next week.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

VFR conditions and generally light and variable winds will prevail
through the period for all TAF sites with just a couple
exceptions. First, recent guidance indicates the potential for
light showers overnight tonight over southern IA and northern MO,
but given uncertainty whether it will occur at the terminal, have
not mentioned in the TAF. Second exception is radiation fog
development during the late overnight and early morning, which
would be similar to what occurred last night. Have included a few
hours of fog for KSUS, KCPS, and KUIN, which could reduce
visibilities down to MVFR/IFR conditions. However, any fog that
develops should be quick to burn off after sunrise Friday.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Scattered diurnal
cumulus today will return Friday, becoming broken by the early
afternoon. There is a possibility for some showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon, but given uncertainties regarding
timing and coverage, have not included mention in the TAF at this
time. Light and variable winds today and tonight will become
easterly around 05kt on Friday, and while some radiation fog is
expected around the area late tonight and early Friday morning,
temperature/dewpoint spreads at KSTL do not indicate impacts at
the terminal.

JP

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 311744
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1244 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Expect highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s followed by overnight
lows in the lower 60s. Such temperatures are 3-10 degrees below
average for this time of year. Light rain is possible across the
extreme southern CWA today on the northern fringes of an area of
precipitation which is being generated by a shortwave moving from
OK into AR. Isolated to scattered precip is also possible late
this afternoon and early tonight across the northern CWA ahead of
an approaching shortwave which is diving south-southeastward from
ND/MN per 06z water vapor imagery.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Diurnal instability combined with lift ahead of occasional weak
shortwaves might produce iso-sct SH/TS over the next couple of
days, especially during the afternoon hours. Slightly cooler than
average temperatures will continue until the northwest flow
pattern aloft begins to change over the weekend, eventually
becoming quasizonal. After an upper ridge de-amplifies and shifts
into the plains early next week while surface winds turn
southerly, seasonable levels of heat/humidity should return to the
region. The next opportunity for widespread rainfall appears to be
associated with a potential synoptic scale system during the
middle of next week.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

VFR conditions and generally light and variable winds will prevail
through the period for all TAF sites with just a couple
exceptions. First, recent guidance indicates the potential for
light showers overnight tonight over southern IA and northern MO,
but given uncertainty whether it will occur at the terminal, have
not mentioned in the TAF. Second exception is radiation fog
development during the late overnight and early morning, which
would be similar to what occurred last night. Have included a few
hours of fog for KSUS, KCPS, and KUIN, which could reduce
visibilities down to MVFR/IFR conditions. However, any fog that
develops should be quick to burn off after sunrise Friday.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Scattered diurnal
cumulus today will return Friday, becoming broken by the early
afternoon. There is a possibility for some showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon, but given uncertainties regarding
timing and coverage, have not included mention in the TAF at this
time. Light and variable winds today and tonight will become
easterly around 05kt on Friday, and while some radiation fog is
expected around the area late tonight and early Friday morning,
temperature/dewpoint spreads at KSTL do not indicate impacts at
the terminal.

JP

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 311730
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Quiet, mainly dry conditions and slightly below normal temperatures
are expected to continue through the short term forecast period as
troughing over the Great Lakes continues to be reinforced, keeping
NNW flow entrenched over the eastern Plains. Fairly significant dry
air through the depth of the column (but especially at 700-400 hPa)
should keep precipitation chances generally low for the rest of this
week and into the weekend, but a few very isolated, very light rain
showers are possible Friday afternoon as a shortwave trough rotates
down into portions of central and eastern Missouri and a bit of
surface-based instability develops.

Highs through Saturday will be in the lower to mid 80s, and lows
will settle in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Winds should also remain
light as surface high pressure continues to drift across the region,
and humidity levels will remain fairly low.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Later half of the forecast remains relatively unchanged as mid and
long range solutions haven`t changed much. As we move through the
last day of the weekend and the into next work week the pattern
across the States will still be amplified enough to keep significant
troughing in place across the eastern CONUS with a modest northwest
flow across the Lower Missouri River Valley. Consequently, while our
general temperature trend will be on the up swing going through the
weekend as the ridge to our west slowly expands into the Plains
States, expectations are that temperatures will still be slightly
below seasonally normal values Sunday. However, by Monday
temperatures will have finished climbing to back near normal, which
means a return of temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s for the
beginning of the work week. However, all is not lost, as many
models are advertising a shortwave trough moving through the region
next Wednesday and Thursday. This will likely knock temperatures
back down for Thursday and the periods just beyond. This could also
provide us with our next best chance at widespread rain across the
region as the front moves through Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CIGS and VIS are expected through the period. Diurnal CU have
developed and should continue to near sunset before clearing away.
The sfc winds should remain light and variable through the day and
evening with light southerly winds developing tomorrow.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...Pietrycha






000
FXUS63 KEAX 311730
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Quiet, mainly dry conditions and slightly below normal temperatures
are expected to continue through the short term forecast period as
troughing over the Great Lakes continues to be reinforced, keeping
NNW flow entrenched over the eastern Plains. Fairly significant dry
air through the depth of the column (but especially at 700-400 hPa)
should keep precipitation chances generally low for the rest of this
week and into the weekend, but a few very isolated, very light rain
showers are possible Friday afternoon as a shortwave trough rotates
down into portions of central and eastern Missouri and a bit of
surface-based instability develops.

Highs through Saturday will be in the lower to mid 80s, and lows
will settle in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Winds should also remain
light as surface high pressure continues to drift across the region,
and humidity levels will remain fairly low.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Later half of the forecast remains relatively unchanged as mid and
long range solutions haven`t changed much. As we move through the
last day of the weekend and the into next work week the pattern
across the States will still be amplified enough to keep significant
troughing in place across the eastern CONUS with a modest northwest
flow across the Lower Missouri River Valley. Consequently, while our
general temperature trend will be on the up swing going through the
weekend as the ridge to our west slowly expands into the Plains
States, expectations are that temperatures will still be slightly
below seasonally normal values Sunday. However, by Monday
temperatures will have finished climbing to back near normal, which
means a return of temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s for the
beginning of the work week. However, all is not lost, as many
models are advertising a shortwave trough moving through the region
next Wednesday and Thursday. This will likely knock temperatures
back down for Thursday and the periods just beyond. This could also
provide us with our next best chance at widespread rain across the
region as the front moves through Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CIGS and VIS are expected through the period. Diurnal CU have
developed and should continue to near sunset before clearing away.
The sfc winds should remain light and variable through the day and
evening with light southerly winds developing tomorrow.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...Pietrycha







000
FXUS63 KLSX 311134
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
634 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Expect highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s followed by overnight
lows in the lower 60s. Such temperatures are 3-10 degrees below
average for this time of year. Light rain is possible across the
extreme southern CWA today on the northern fringes of an area of
precipitation which is being generated by a shortwave moving from
OK into AR. Isolated to scattered precip is also possible late
this afternoon and early tonight across the northern CWA ahead of
an approaching shortwave which is diving south-southeastward from
ND/MN per 06z water vapor imagery.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Diurnal instability combined with lift ahead of occasional weak
shortwaves might produce iso-sct SH/TS over the next couple of
days, especially during the afternoon hours. Slightly cooler than
average temperatures will continue until the northwest flow
pattern aloft begins to change over the weekend, eventually
becoming quasizonal. After an upper ridge de-amplifies and shifts
into the plains early next week while surface winds turn
southerly, seasonable levels of heat/humidity should return to the
region. The next opportunity for widespread rainfall appears to be
associated with a potential synoptic scale system during the
middle of next week.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Ongoing radiational fog should dissipate by 13-14z with VFR flight
conditions expected to dominate through the remainder of the day
and evening. Clouds will consist primarily of diurnal cu and some
high clouds. Given the persistence of light winds, during the
overnight hours we should see radiational fog once again develop.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions expected to dominate through the forecast
period. The wind will be light and clouds will consist primarily
of diurnal cu and some high clouds.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 311134
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
634 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Expect highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s followed by overnight
lows in the lower 60s. Such temperatures are 3-10 degrees below
average for this time of year. Light rain is possible across the
extreme southern CWA today on the northern fringes of an area of
precipitation which is being generated by a shortwave moving from
OK into AR. Isolated to scattered precip is also possible late
this afternoon and early tonight across the northern CWA ahead of
an approaching shortwave which is diving south-southeastward from
ND/MN per 06z water vapor imagery.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Diurnal instability combined with lift ahead of occasional weak
shortwaves might produce iso-sct SH/TS over the next couple of
days, especially during the afternoon hours. Slightly cooler than
average temperatures will continue until the northwest flow
pattern aloft begins to change over the weekend, eventually
becoming quasizonal. After an upper ridge de-amplifies and shifts
into the plains early next week while surface winds turn
southerly, seasonable levels of heat/humidity should return to the
region. The next opportunity for widespread rainfall appears to be
associated with a potential synoptic scale system during the
middle of next week.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Ongoing radiational fog should dissipate by 13-14z with VFR flight
conditions expected to dominate through the remainder of the day
and evening. Clouds will consist primarily of diurnal cu and some
high clouds. Given the persistence of light winds, during the
overnight hours we should see radiational fog once again develop.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions expected to dominate through the forecast
period. The wind will be light and clouds will consist primarily
of diurnal cu and some high clouds.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 311106
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
606 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Quiet, mainly dry conditions and slightly below normal temperatures
are expected to continue through the short term forecast period as
troughing over the Great Lakes continues to be reinforced, keeping
NNW flow entrenched over the eastern Plains. Fairly significant dry
air through the depth of the column (but especially at 700-400 hPa)
should keep precipitation chances generally low for the rest of this
week and into the weekend, but a few very isolated, very light rain
showers are possible Friday afternoon as a shortwave trough rotates
down into portions of central and eastern Missouri and a bit of
surface-based instability develops.

Highs through Saturday will be in the lower to mid 80s, and lows
will settle in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Winds should also remain
light as surface high pressure continues to drift across the region,
and humidity levels will remain fairly low.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Later half of the forecast remains relatively unchanged as mid and
long range solutions haven`t changed much. As we move through the
last day of the weekend and the into next work week the pattern
across the States will still be amplified enough to keep significant
troughing in place across the eastern CONUS with a modest northwest
flow across the Lower Missouri River Valley. Consequently, while our
general temperature trend will be on the up swing going through the
weekend as the ridge to our west slowly expands into the Plains
States, expectations are that temperatures will still be slightly
below seasonally normal values Sunday. However, by Monday
temperatures will have finished climbing to back near normal, which
means a return of temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s for the
beginning of the work week. However, all is not lost, as many
models are advertising a shortwave trough moving through the region
next Wednesday and Thursday. This will likely knock temperatures
back down for Thursday and the periods just beyond. This could also
provide us with our next best chance at widespread rain across the
region as the front moves through Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 606 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Outside of some very patchy fog early this morning, VFR conditions
are expected through the TAF period. Scattered cumulus with bases
around 5-6 kft is expected to develop by late morning, and winds will
gradually veer to the southeast at speeds around 6-7 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 311106
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
606 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Quiet, mainly dry conditions and slightly below normal temperatures
are expected to continue through the short term forecast period as
troughing over the Great Lakes continues to be reinforced, keeping
NNW flow entrenched over the eastern Plains. Fairly significant dry
air through the depth of the column (but especially at 700-400 hPa)
should keep precipitation chances generally low for the rest of this
week and into the weekend, but a few very isolated, very light rain
showers are possible Friday afternoon as a shortwave trough rotates
down into portions of central and eastern Missouri and a bit of
surface-based instability develops.

Highs through Saturday will be in the lower to mid 80s, and lows
will settle in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Winds should also remain
light as surface high pressure continues to drift across the region,
and humidity levels will remain fairly low.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Later half of the forecast remains relatively unchanged as mid and
long range solutions haven`t changed much. As we move through the
last day of the weekend and the into next work week the pattern
across the States will still be amplified enough to keep significant
troughing in place across the eastern CONUS with a modest northwest
flow across the Lower Missouri River Valley. Consequently, while our
general temperature trend will be on the up swing going through the
weekend as the ridge to our west slowly expands into the Plains
States, expectations are that temperatures will still be slightly
below seasonally normal values Sunday. However, by Monday
temperatures will have finished climbing to back near normal, which
means a return of temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s for the
beginning of the work week. However, all is not lost, as many
models are advertising a shortwave trough moving through the region
next Wednesday and Thursday. This will likely knock temperatures
back down for Thursday and the periods just beyond. This could also
provide us with our next best chance at widespread rain across the
region as the front moves through Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 606 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Outside of some very patchy fog early this morning, VFR conditions
are expected through the TAF period. Scattered cumulus with bases
around 5-6 kft is expected to develop by late morning, and winds will
gradually veer to the southeast at speeds around 6-7 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KSGF 311055
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
555 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

The rain that impacted far southern Missouri Wednesday had shifted
to the south with only lingering sprinkles early this morning.
Partial clearing from the north and moist conditions where rain
had fallen was resulting in patchy fog.

The shortwave trough responsible for the recent rainfall will
track southeast across Arkansas today. Scattered showers and
sprinkles will linger today and mainly this morning across far
southern Missouri within an axis of weak mid level deformation
north of the shortwave.

Temperatures will remain cooler than normal today especially under
the clouds closer to the Arkansas border.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

The northwesterly flow aloft will continue the next few days
before the upper ridge out west expands eastward early next week.

A shortwave trough will drop southward across the Great Lakes
region Friday and Saturday. This feature may support the
development of isolated showers across the eastern Ozarks Friday
and Saturday but expect most locations to remain dry.

Temperatures will remain below normal through Saturday then a
warming trend will develop heading into early next week.
Temperatures will be near seasonal mid summer levels Monday and Tuesday.

The next upper level trough and associated front will approach the
region later next week bringing our next substantial chance of
rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A low level stratus deck and
fog have developed across the area overnight. The fog will remain
at all the TAF sites early this morning with the low level cloud
deck remaining possible over the KSGF and KBBG TAFS. The clouds
will lift and increase by the mid morning hours with the fog also
burning off early this morning.

Scattered light showers will also be possible across southern
Missouri this morning and will mainly impact the KBBG TAF SITE.
VFR conditions will occur this afternoon and evening, with light
winds occurring throughout the TAF period. Fog may once again develop
overnight into early Friday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise






000
FXUS63 KSGF 310836
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
336 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

The rain that impacted far southern Missouri Wednesday had shifted
to the south with only lingering sprinkles early this morning.
Partial clearing from the north and moist conditions where rain
had fallen was resulting in patchy fog.

The shortwave trough responsible for the recent rainfall will
track southeast across Arkansas today. Scattered showers and
sprinkles will linger today and mainly this morning across far
southern Missouri within an axis of weak mid level deformation
north of the shortwave.

Temperatures will remain cooler than normal today especially under
the clouds closer to the Arkansas border.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

The northwesterly flow aloft will continue the next few days
before the upper ridge out west expands eastward early next week.

A shortwave trough will drop southward across the Great Lakes
region Friday and Saturday. This feature may support the
development of isolated showers across the eastern Ozarks Friday
and Saturday but expect most locations to remain dry.

Temperatures will remain below normal through Saturday then a
warming trend will develop heading into early next week.
Temperatures will be near seasonal mid summer levels Monday and Tuesday.

The next upper level trough and associated front will approach the
region later next week bringing our next substantial chance of
rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Moist low levels from rain earlier in the
day along with boundary layer cooling should allow areas of fog to
develop. Seeing some ifr fog developing in some spots where higher
clouds have cleared. Have ifr cat visibility in all tafs with the
best chances likely at KJLN and KBBG. Some light showers may
develop during the 12z-18z time frame over far southern Missouri
with another upper level disturbance.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KSGF 310836
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
336 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

The rain that impacted far southern Missouri Wednesday had shifted
to the south with only lingering sprinkles early this morning.
Partial clearing from the north and moist conditions where rain
had fallen was resulting in patchy fog.

The shortwave trough responsible for the recent rainfall will
track southeast across Arkansas today. Scattered showers and
sprinkles will linger today and mainly this morning across far
southern Missouri within an axis of weak mid level deformation
north of the shortwave.

Temperatures will remain cooler than normal today especially under
the clouds closer to the Arkansas border.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

The northwesterly flow aloft will continue the next few days
before the upper ridge out west expands eastward early next week.

A shortwave trough will drop southward across the Great Lakes
region Friday and Saturday. This feature may support the
development of isolated showers across the eastern Ozarks Friday
and Saturday but expect most locations to remain dry.

Temperatures will remain below normal through Saturday then a
warming trend will develop heading into early next week.
Temperatures will be near seasonal mid summer levels Monday and Tuesday.

The next upper level trough and associated front will approach the
region later next week bringing our next substantial chance of
rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Moist low levels from rain earlier in the
day along with boundary layer cooling should allow areas of fog to
develop. Seeing some ifr fog developing in some spots where higher
clouds have cleared. Have ifr cat visibility in all tafs with the
best chances likely at KJLN and KBBG. Some light showers may
develop during the 12z-18z time frame over far southern Missouri
with another upper level disturbance.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KEAX 310818
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
318 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Quiet, mainly dry conditions and slightly below normal temperatures
are expected to continue through the short term forecast period as
troughing over the Great Lakes continues to be reinforced, keeping
NNW flow entrenched over the eastern Plains. Fairly significant dry
air through the depth of the column (but especially at 700-400 hPa)
should keep precipitation chances generally low for the rest of this
week and into the weekend, but a few very isolated, very light rain
showers are possible Friday afternoon as a shortwave trough rotates
down into portions of central and eastern Missouri and a bit of
surface-based instability develops.

Highs through Saturday will be in the lower to mid 80s, and lows
will settle in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Winds should also remain
light as surface high pressure continues to drift across the region,
and humidity levels will remain fairly low.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Later half of the forecast remains relatively unchanged as mid and
long range solutions haven`t changed much. As we move through the
last day of the weekend and the into next work week the pattern
across the States will still be amplified enough to keep significant
troughing in place across the eastern CONUS with a modest northwest
flow across the Lower Missouri River Valley. Consequently, while our
general temperature trend will be on the up swing going through the
weekend as the ridge to our west slowly expands into the Plains
States, expectations are that temperatures will still be slightly
below seasonally normal values Sunday. However, by Monday
temperatures will have finished climbing to back near normal, which
means a return of temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s for the
beginning of the work week. However, all is not lost, as many
models are advertising a shortwave trough moving through the region
next Wednesday and Thursday. This will likely knock temperatures
back down for Thursday and the periods just beyond. This could also
provide us with our next best chance at widespread rain across the
region as the front moves through Wednesday into Thursday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period.
Mainly clear skies tonight will be replaced by diurnal cumulus with
bases around 5-6 kft late Thursday morning, and winds will gradually
veer from northeast to southeast at speeds around 5 kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KEAX 310818
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
318 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Quiet, mainly dry conditions and slightly below normal temperatures
are expected to continue through the short term forecast period as
troughing over the Great Lakes continues to be reinforced, keeping
NNW flow entrenched over the eastern Plains. Fairly significant dry
air through the depth of the column (but especially at 700-400 hPa)
should keep precipitation chances generally low for the rest of this
week and into the weekend, but a few very isolated, very light rain
showers are possible Friday afternoon as a shortwave trough rotates
down into portions of central and eastern Missouri and a bit of
surface-based instability develops.

Highs through Saturday will be in the lower to mid 80s, and lows
will settle in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Winds should also remain
light as surface high pressure continues to drift across the region,
and humidity levels will remain fairly low.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Later half of the forecast remains relatively unchanged as mid and
long range solutions haven`t changed much. As we move through the
last day of the weekend and the into next work week the pattern
across the States will still be amplified enough to keep significant
troughing in place across the eastern CONUS with a modest northwest
flow across the Lower Missouri River Valley. Consequently, while our
general temperature trend will be on the up swing going through the
weekend as the ridge to our west slowly expands into the Plains
States, expectations are that temperatures will still be slightly
below seasonally normal values Sunday. However, by Monday
temperatures will have finished climbing to back near normal, which
means a return of temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s for the
beginning of the work week. However, all is not lost, as many
models are advertising a shortwave trough moving through the region
next Wednesday and Thursday. This will likely knock temperatures
back down for Thursday and the periods just beyond. This could also
provide us with our next best chance at widespread rain across the
region as the front moves through Wednesday into Thursday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period.
Mainly clear skies tonight will be replaced by diurnal cumulus with
bases around 5-6 kft late Thursday morning, and winds will gradually
veer from northeast to southeast at speeds around 5 kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KLSX 310809
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
309 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Expect highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s followed by overnight
lows in the lower 60s. Such temperatures are 3-10 degrees below
average for this time of year. Light rain is possible across the
extreme southern CWA today on the northern fringes of an area of
precipitation which is being generated by a shortwave moving from
OK into AR. Isolated to scattered precip is also possible late
this afternoon and early tonight across the northern CWA ahead of
an approaching shortwave which is diving south-southeastward from
ND/MN per 06z water vapor imagery.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Diurnal instability combined with lift ahead of occasional weak
shortwaves might produce iso-sct SH/TS over the next couple of
days, especially during the afternoon hours. Slightly cooler than
average temperatures will continue until the northwest flow
pattern aloft begins to change over the weekend, eventually
becoming quasizonal. After an upper ridge de-amplifies and shifts
into the plains early next week while surface winds turn
southerly, seasonable levels of heat/humidity should return to the
region. The next opportunity for widespread rainfall appears to be
associated with a potential synoptic scale system during the
middle of next week.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Dry and VFR conditions with light winds are expected through the
TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL: Dry and VFR conditions with light winds are
expected over the next 30 hours.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 310809
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
309 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Expect highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s followed by overnight
lows in the lower 60s. Such temperatures are 3-10 degrees below
average for this time of year. Light rain is possible across the
extreme southern CWA today on the northern fringes of an area of
precipitation which is being generated by a shortwave moving from
OK into AR. Isolated to scattered precip is also possible late
this afternoon and early tonight across the northern CWA ahead of
an approaching shortwave which is diving south-southeastward from
ND/MN per 06z water vapor imagery.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Diurnal instability combined with lift ahead of occasional weak
shortwaves might produce iso-sct SH/TS over the next couple of
days, especially during the afternoon hours. Slightly cooler than
average temperatures will continue until the northwest flow
pattern aloft begins to change over the weekend, eventually
becoming quasizonal. After an upper ridge de-amplifies and shifts
into the plains early next week while surface winds turn
southerly, seasonable levels of heat/humidity should return to the
region. The next opportunity for widespread rainfall appears to be
associated with a potential synoptic scale system during the
middle of next week.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Dry and VFR conditions with light winds are expected through the
TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL: Dry and VFR conditions with light winds are
expected over the next 30 hours.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 310534
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1234 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

Not a lot going on for this fcst issuance as the incredibly
pleasant temperatures continue. Other than a few light showers
clipping southern Linn County this afternoon, the CWA should remain
dry through much of the fcst period as northwest flow persists
associated with a deep low pressure over the lower Hudson Bay region.
The low will very slowly lift north allowing for rising heights and
warmer temperatures by the end of the weekend and into early next
week.

As the current ridge of high pressure over the western CONUS builds
east we should see temps return back to close to normal by Monday
with increasing humidity. The warm temps will not last too long as a
trough amplifies across the Northern Plains while the ridge
retrogrades west, allowing for a cold front to move through the CWA.
At this time the GFS and EC depict increasing precip chances
beginning very late TUE but more so WED afternoon and evening
associated with the cold frontal passage. Beyond the fcst period the
trough should continue to impact the CWA with several days of below
normal temperatures to finish out next week. We shall see...

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period.
Mainly clear skies tonight will be replaced by diurnal cumulus with
bases around 5-6 kft late Thursday morning, and winds will gradually
veer from northeast to southeast at speeds around 5 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 310534
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1234 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

Not a lot going on for this fcst issuance as the incredibly
pleasant temperatures continue. Other than a few light showers
clipping southern Linn County this afternoon, the CWA should remain
dry through much of the fcst period as northwest flow persists
associated with a deep low pressure over the lower Hudson Bay region.
The low will very slowly lift north allowing for rising heights and
warmer temperatures by the end of the weekend and into early next
week.

As the current ridge of high pressure over the western CONUS builds
east we should see temps return back to close to normal by Monday
with increasing humidity. The warm temps will not last too long as a
trough amplifies across the Northern Plains while the ridge
retrogrades west, allowing for a cold front to move through the CWA.
At this time the GFS and EC depict increasing precip chances
beginning very late TUE but more so WED afternoon and evening
associated with the cold frontal passage. Beyond the fcst period the
trough should continue to impact the CWA with several days of below
normal temperatures to finish out next week. We shall see...

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period.
Mainly clear skies tonight will be replaced by diurnal cumulus with
bases around 5-6 kft late Thursday morning, and winds will gradually
veer from northeast to southeast at speeds around 5 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KSGF 310515
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1215 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)

Light to moderate rain has spread across southeast Kansas and
southwest Missouri today. Essentially from Fort Scott Kansas to
Bull Shoals Lake...and to the southwest has experienced this
precipitation today.

Locations across central Stone County and over into southern
Lawrence County are now approaching two inches of measured rain.
These areas have been placed within an elevated risk for flooding
through tonight, as additional rainfall takes place across
southwest Missouri.

Speaking of tonight, we noticed that the MCV over north central
Oklahoma was taking more of a northerly track this afternoon,
almost moving due east with time. We have increased precipitation
chances significantly across southern Missouri through tonight`s
period, with the possibility of heavier rain affecting southern
Missouri. As a matter of fact, WPC has now included far SW MO
within a slight risk for excessive rainfall in their Day 1
Outlook.

There should be a sharp cutoff in rainfall on the northern edge of
the precipitation shield. Locations along Highway 54 and to the
north will likely remain dry through this whole episode.

Rain will persist across southern Missouri Thursday, before coming
to an end Thursday afternoon. Look for highs to only reach the 70s
again tomorrow over southern MO, with highs in the lower 80s in
central MO.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)

Starting Thursday night, an extended period of dry weather is
expected for the nation`s midsection. A gradual warm up is also in
line, with highs in the 80s on an afternoon basis through Sunday.
We could get into the 90 degree weather early next week,
particularly Monday and Tuesday. Overnight lows through early next
week will fall into the 60s.

The next significant chance for rain will occur Wednesday or
Thursday of next week. Models have been signaling an upper
shortwave and associated frontal system to swing across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Moist low levels from rain earlier in the
day along with boundary layer cooling should allow areas of fog to
develop. Seeing some ifr fog developing in some spots where higher
clouds have cleared. Have ifr cat visibility in all tafs with the
best chances likely at KJLN and KBBG. Some light showers may
develop during the 12z-18z time frame over far southern Missouri
with another upper level disturbance.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA








000
FXUS63 KSGF 310515
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1215 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)

Light to moderate rain has spread across southeast Kansas and
southwest Missouri today. Essentially from Fort Scott Kansas to
Bull Shoals Lake...and to the southwest has experienced this
precipitation today.

Locations across central Stone County and over into southern
Lawrence County are now approaching two inches of measured rain.
These areas have been placed within an elevated risk for flooding
through tonight, as additional rainfall takes place across
southwest Missouri.

Speaking of tonight, we noticed that the MCV over north central
Oklahoma was taking more of a northerly track this afternoon,
almost moving due east with time. We have increased precipitation
chances significantly across southern Missouri through tonight`s
period, with the possibility of heavier rain affecting southern
Missouri. As a matter of fact, WPC has now included far SW MO
within a slight risk for excessive rainfall in their Day 1
Outlook.

There should be a sharp cutoff in rainfall on the northern edge of
the precipitation shield. Locations along Highway 54 and to the
north will likely remain dry through this whole episode.

Rain will persist across southern Missouri Thursday, before coming
to an end Thursday afternoon. Look for highs to only reach the 70s
again tomorrow over southern MO, with highs in the lower 80s in
central MO.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)

Starting Thursday night, an extended period of dry weather is
expected for the nation`s midsection. A gradual warm up is also in
line, with highs in the 80s on an afternoon basis through Sunday.
We could get into the 90 degree weather early next week,
particularly Monday and Tuesday. Overnight lows through early next
week will fall into the 60s.

The next significant chance for rain will occur Wednesday or
Thursday of next week. Models have been signaling an upper
shortwave and associated frontal system to swing across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Moist low levels from rain earlier in the
day along with boundary layer cooling should allow areas of fog to
develop. Seeing some ifr fog developing in some spots where higher
clouds have cleared. Have ifr cat visibility in all tafs with the
best chances likely at KJLN and KBBG. Some light showers may
develop during the 12z-18z time frame over far southern Missouri
with another upper level disturbance.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KLSX 310341
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1041 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Not many changes in store for tonight. Diurnal cu will dissipate
after sunset, but ci shield shud remain largely in place. S/W over
KS/OK region shud begin to dig slightly as the upper low over
Hudson Bay helps to push it swd. This shud keep precip S of the
CWA overnight. Latest RADAR trends show precip is further N than
mdl guidance suggests. However, much of the precip over SW MO is
largely convective and shud gradually dissipate, at least
partially, after sunset. All of that said, have added slight PoPs
to the srn tier of counties late tonight to account for
uncertainty in the nrn edge of the precip shield.

As for temps tonight, with light winds and clouds clearing out,
have trended twd the cooler guidance tonight except for srn
portions of the CWA where clouds will linger thru the night.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Persistent longwave trough is still forecast to dominate the
weather pattern through the rest of the work week and into this
weekend. Complex of light/moderate rain should stay mainly south
of the area through Thursday with far southern sections of the
CWFA possibly being either skirted by the rain shield or isolated
-shra/-tsra that develops with diurnal instability Thursday
afternoon. Slight chance of showers or storms will again be
diurnally driven on Friday/Saturday. Sunday through Tuesday at
least looks dry with slowly moderating temperatures to near normal
by Tuesday. Next best chance of any widespread sort of rain looks
to be next Wednesday/Thursday as flow aloft becomes more zonal and
a frontal boundary slowly progresses through the region.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Dry and VFR conditions with light winds are expected through the
TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL: Dry and VFR conditions with light winds are
expected over the next 30 hours.

Britt

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     65  86  66  85 /   5  10   5  20
Quincy          58  83  62  80 /   5  10  10  20
Columbia        61  84  61  83 /   5  10   5  20
Jefferson City  62  84  61  83 /   5  10   5  20
Salem           59  83  62  83 /   5  10   5  20
Farmington      61  78  59  81 /   5  20  10  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 310341
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1041 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Not many changes in store for tonight. Diurnal cu will dissipate
after sunset, but ci shield shud remain largely in place. S/W over
KS/OK region shud begin to dig slightly as the upper low over
Hudson Bay helps to push it swd. This shud keep precip S of the
CWA overnight. Latest RADAR trends show precip is further N than
mdl guidance suggests. However, much of the precip over SW MO is
largely convective and shud gradually dissipate, at least
partially, after sunset. All of that said, have added slight PoPs
to the srn tier of counties late tonight to account for
uncertainty in the nrn edge of the precip shield.

As for temps tonight, with light winds and clouds clearing out,
have trended twd the cooler guidance tonight except for srn
portions of the CWA where clouds will linger thru the night.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Persistent longwave trough is still forecast to dominate the
weather pattern through the rest of the work week and into this
weekend. Complex of light/moderate rain should stay mainly south
of the area through Thursday with far southern sections of the
CWFA possibly being either skirted by the rain shield or isolated
-shra/-tsra that develops with diurnal instability Thursday
afternoon. Slight chance of showers or storms will again be
diurnally driven on Friday/Saturday. Sunday through Tuesday at
least looks dry with slowly moderating temperatures to near normal
by Tuesday. Next best chance of any widespread sort of rain looks
to be next Wednesday/Thursday as flow aloft becomes more zonal and
a frontal boundary slowly progresses through the region.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Dry and VFR conditions with light winds are expected through the
TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL: Dry and VFR conditions with light winds are
expected over the next 30 hours.

Britt

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     65  86  66  85 /   5  10   5  20
Quincy          58  83  62  80 /   5  10  10  20
Columbia        61  84  61  83 /   5  10   5  20
Jefferson City  62  84  61  83 /   5  10   5  20
Salem           59  83  62  83 /   5  10   5  20
Farmington      61  78  59  81 /   5  20  10  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 310341
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1041 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Not many changes in store for tonight. Diurnal cu will dissipate
after sunset, but ci shield shud remain largely in place. S/W over
KS/OK region shud begin to dig slightly as the upper low over
Hudson Bay helps to push it swd. This shud keep precip S of the
CWA overnight. Latest RADAR trends show precip is further N than
mdl guidance suggests. However, much of the precip over SW MO is
largely convective and shud gradually dissipate, at least
partially, after sunset. All of that said, have added slight PoPs
to the srn tier of counties late tonight to account for
uncertainty in the nrn edge of the precip shield.

As for temps tonight, with light winds and clouds clearing out,
have trended twd the cooler guidance tonight except for srn
portions of the CWA where clouds will linger thru the night.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Persistent longwave trough is still forecast to dominate the
weather pattern through the rest of the work week and into this
weekend. Complex of light/moderate rain should stay mainly south
of the area through Thursday with far southern sections of the
CWFA possibly being either skirted by the rain shield or isolated
-shra/-tsra that develops with diurnal instability Thursday
afternoon. Slight chance of showers or storms will again be
diurnally driven on Friday/Saturday. Sunday through Tuesday at
least looks dry with slowly moderating temperatures to near normal
by Tuesday. Next best chance of any widespread sort of rain looks
to be next Wednesday/Thursday as flow aloft becomes more zonal and
a frontal boundary slowly progresses through the region.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Dry and VFR conditions with light winds are expected through the
TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL: Dry and VFR conditions with light winds are
expected over the next 30 hours.

Britt

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     65  86  66  85 /   5  10   5  20
Quincy          58  83  62  80 /   5  10  10  20
Columbia        61  84  61  83 /   5  10   5  20
Jefferson City  62  84  61  83 /   5  10   5  20
Salem           59  83  62  83 /   5  10   5  20
Farmington      61  78  59  81 /   5  20  10  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 310341
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1041 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Not many changes in store for tonight. Diurnal cu will dissipate
after sunset, but ci shield shud remain largely in place. S/W over
KS/OK region shud begin to dig slightly as the upper low over
Hudson Bay helps to push it swd. This shud keep precip S of the
CWA overnight. Latest RADAR trends show precip is further N than
mdl guidance suggests. However, much of the precip over SW MO is
largely convective and shud gradually dissipate, at least
partially, after sunset. All of that said, have added slight PoPs
to the srn tier of counties late tonight to account for
uncertainty in the nrn edge of the precip shield.

As for temps tonight, with light winds and clouds clearing out,
have trended twd the cooler guidance tonight except for srn
portions of the CWA where clouds will linger thru the night.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Persistent longwave trough is still forecast to dominate the
weather pattern through the rest of the work week and into this
weekend. Complex of light/moderate rain should stay mainly south
of the area through Thursday with far southern sections of the
CWFA possibly being either skirted by the rain shield or isolated
-shra/-tsra that develops with diurnal instability Thursday
afternoon. Slight chance of showers or storms will again be
diurnally driven on Friday/Saturday. Sunday through Tuesday at
least looks dry with slowly moderating temperatures to near normal
by Tuesday. Next best chance of any widespread sort of rain looks
to be next Wednesday/Thursday as flow aloft becomes more zonal and
a frontal boundary slowly progresses through the region.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Dry and VFR conditions with light winds are expected through the
TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL: Dry and VFR conditions with light winds are
expected over the next 30 hours.

Britt

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     65  86  66  85 /   5  10   5  20
Quincy          58  83  62  80 /   5  10  10  20
Columbia        61  84  61  83 /   5  10   5  20
Jefferson City  62  84  61  83 /   5  10   5  20
Salem           59  83  62  83 /   5  10   5  20
Farmington      61  78  59  81 /   5  20  10  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 302357
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
657 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)

Light to moderate rain has spread across southeast Kansas and
southwest Missouri today. Essentially from Fort Scott Kansas to
Bull Shoals Lake...and to the southwest has experienced this
precipitation today.

Locations across central Stone County and over into southern
Lawrence County are now approaching two inches of measured rain.
These areas have been placed within an elevated risk for flooding
through tonight, as additional rainfall takes place across
southwest Missouri.

Speaking of tonight, we noticed that the MCV over north central
Oklahoma was taking more of a northerly track this afternoon,
almost moving due east with time. We have increased precipitation
chances significantly across southern Missouri through tonight`s
period, with the possibility of heavier rain affecting southern
Missouri. As a matter of fact, WPC has now included far SW MO
within a slight risk for excessive rainfall in their Day 1
Outlook.

There should be a sharp cutoff in rainfall on the northern edge of
the precipitation shield. Locations along Highway 54 and to the
north will likely remain dry through this whole episode.

Rain will persist across southern Missouri Thursday, before coming
to an end Thursday afternoon. Look for highs to only reach the 70s
again tomorrow over southern MO, with highs in the lower 80s in
central MO.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)

Starting Thursday night, an extended period of dry weather is
expected for the nation`s midsection. A gradual warm up is also in
line, with highs in the 80s on an afternoon basis through Sunday.
We could get into the 90 degree weather early next week,
particularly Monday and Tuesday. Overnight lows through early next
week will fall into the 60s.

The next significant chance for rain will occur Wednesday or
Thursday of next week. Models have been signaling an upper
shortwave and associated frontal system to swing across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 651 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A disturbance moving from ne OK into
nw AR will continue to produce an area of rain/low ceilings over
southwest MO. Conditions have varied, mainly mvfr and some ifr
ceilings, and expect that to continue. MOS guidance is quite
pessimistic and doing a poor job compared to conditions being
observed, so took a middle of the road approach with mostly
mvfr/vfr conditions at KJLN and KBBG and MVFR/IFR at KBBG over the
next 12-18 hours.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 302357
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
657 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)

Light to moderate rain has spread across southeast Kansas and
southwest Missouri today. Essentially from Fort Scott Kansas to
Bull Shoals Lake...and to the southwest has experienced this
precipitation today.

Locations across central Stone County and over into southern
Lawrence County are now approaching two inches of measured rain.
These areas have been placed within an elevated risk for flooding
through tonight, as additional rainfall takes place across
southwest Missouri.

Speaking of tonight, we noticed that the MCV over north central
Oklahoma was taking more of a northerly track this afternoon,
almost moving due east with time. We have increased precipitation
chances significantly across southern Missouri through tonight`s
period, with the possibility of heavier rain affecting southern
Missouri. As a matter of fact, WPC has now included far SW MO
within a slight risk for excessive rainfall in their Day 1
Outlook.

There should be a sharp cutoff in rainfall on the northern edge of
the precipitation shield. Locations along Highway 54 and to the
north will likely remain dry through this whole episode.

Rain will persist across southern Missouri Thursday, before coming
to an end Thursday afternoon. Look for highs to only reach the 70s
again tomorrow over southern MO, with highs in the lower 80s in
central MO.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)

Starting Thursday night, an extended period of dry weather is
expected for the nation`s midsection. A gradual warm up is also in
line, with highs in the 80s on an afternoon basis through Sunday.
We could get into the 90 degree weather early next week,
particularly Monday and Tuesday. Overnight lows through early next
week will fall into the 60s.

The next significant chance for rain will occur Wednesday or
Thursday of next week. Models have been signaling an upper
shortwave and associated frontal system to swing across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 651 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A disturbance moving from ne OK into
nw AR will continue to produce an area of rain/low ceilings over
southwest MO. Conditions have varied, mainly mvfr and some ifr
ceilings, and expect that to continue. MOS guidance is quite
pessimistic and doing a poor job compared to conditions being
observed, so took a middle of the road approach with mostly
mvfr/vfr conditions at KJLN and KBBG and MVFR/IFR at KBBG over the
next 12-18 hours.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 302357
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
657 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)

Light to moderate rain has spread across southeast Kansas and
southwest Missouri today. Essentially from Fort Scott Kansas to
Bull Shoals Lake...and to the southwest has experienced this
precipitation today.

Locations across central Stone County and over into southern
Lawrence County are now approaching two inches of measured rain.
These areas have been placed within an elevated risk for flooding
through tonight, as additional rainfall takes place across
southwest Missouri.

Speaking of tonight, we noticed that the MCV over north central
Oklahoma was taking more of a northerly track this afternoon,
almost moving due east with time. We have increased precipitation
chances significantly across southern Missouri through tonight`s
period, with the possibility of heavier rain affecting southern
Missouri. As a matter of fact, WPC has now included far SW MO
within a slight risk for excessive rainfall in their Day 1
Outlook.

There should be a sharp cutoff in rainfall on the northern edge of
the precipitation shield. Locations along Highway 54 and to the
north will likely remain dry through this whole episode.

Rain will persist across southern Missouri Thursday, before coming
to an end Thursday afternoon. Look for highs to only reach the 70s
again tomorrow over southern MO, with highs in the lower 80s in
central MO.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)

Starting Thursday night, an extended period of dry weather is
expected for the nation`s midsection. A gradual warm up is also in
line, with highs in the 80s on an afternoon basis through Sunday.
We could get into the 90 degree weather early next week,
particularly Monday and Tuesday. Overnight lows through early next
week will fall into the 60s.

The next significant chance for rain will occur Wednesday or
Thursday of next week. Models have been signaling an upper
shortwave and associated frontal system to swing across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 651 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A disturbance moving from ne OK into
nw AR will continue to produce an area of rain/low ceilings over
southwest MO. Conditions have varied, mainly mvfr and some ifr
ceilings, and expect that to continue. MOS guidance is quite
pessimistic and doing a poor job compared to conditions being
observed, so took a middle of the road approach with mostly
mvfr/vfr conditions at KJLN and KBBG and MVFR/IFR at KBBG over the
next 12-18 hours.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 302357
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
657 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)

Light to moderate rain has spread across southeast Kansas and
southwest Missouri today. Essentially from Fort Scott Kansas to
Bull Shoals Lake...and to the southwest has experienced this
precipitation today.

Locations across central Stone County and over into southern
Lawrence County are now approaching two inches of measured rain.
These areas have been placed within an elevated risk for flooding
through tonight, as additional rainfall takes place across
southwest Missouri.

Speaking of tonight, we noticed that the MCV over north central
Oklahoma was taking more of a northerly track this afternoon,
almost moving due east with time. We have increased precipitation
chances significantly across southern Missouri through tonight`s
period, with the possibility of heavier rain affecting southern
Missouri. As a matter of fact, WPC has now included far SW MO
within a slight risk for excessive rainfall in their Day 1
Outlook.

There should be a sharp cutoff in rainfall on the northern edge of
the precipitation shield. Locations along Highway 54 and to the
north will likely remain dry through this whole episode.

Rain will persist across southern Missouri Thursday, before coming
to an end Thursday afternoon. Look for highs to only reach the 70s
again tomorrow over southern MO, with highs in the lower 80s in
central MO.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)

Starting Thursday night, an extended period of dry weather is
expected for the nation`s midsection. A gradual warm up is also in
line, with highs in the 80s on an afternoon basis through Sunday.
We could get into the 90 degree weather early next week,
particularly Monday and Tuesday. Overnight lows through early next
week will fall into the 60s.

The next significant chance for rain will occur Wednesday or
Thursday of next week. Models have been signaling an upper
shortwave and associated frontal system to swing across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 651 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A disturbance moving from ne OK into
nw AR will continue to produce an area of rain/low ceilings over
southwest MO. Conditions have varied, mainly mvfr and some ifr
ceilings, and expect that to continue. MOS guidance is quite
pessimistic and doing a poor job compared to conditions being
observed, so took a middle of the road approach with mostly
mvfr/vfr conditions at KJLN and KBBG and MVFR/IFR at KBBG over the
next 12-18 hours.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KEAX 302334
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
634 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

Not a lot going on for this fcst issuance as the incredibly
pleasant temperatures continue. Other than a few light showers
clipping southern Linn County this afternoon, the CWA should remain
dry through much of the fcst period as northwest flow persists
associated with a deep low pressure over the lower Hudson Bay region.
The low will very slowly lift north allowing for rising heights and
warmer temperatures by the end of the weekend and into early next
week.

As the current ridge of high pressure over the western CONUS builds
east we should see temps return back to close to normal by Monday
with increasing humidity. The warm temps will not last too long as a
trough amplifies across the Northern Plains while the ridge
retrogrades west, allowing for a cold front to move through the CWA.
At this time the GFS and EC depict increasing precip chances
beginning very late TUE but more so WED afternoon and evening
associated with the cold frontal passage. Beyond the fcst period the
trough should continue to impact the CWA with several days of below
normal temperatures to finish out next week. We shall see...

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

Area of rain over southern KS and MO will continue tracking east and
remain well south of the terminals. VFR conditions with weak high
pressure resulting in light winds veering from the northeast to east-
southeast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...MJ






000
FXUS63 KEAX 302334
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
634 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

Not a lot going on for this fcst issuance as the incredibly
pleasant temperatures continue. Other than a few light showers
clipping southern Linn County this afternoon, the CWA should remain
dry through much of the fcst period as northwest flow persists
associated with a deep low pressure over the lower Hudson Bay region.
The low will very slowly lift north allowing for rising heights and
warmer temperatures by the end of the weekend and into early next
week.

As the current ridge of high pressure over the western CONUS builds
east we should see temps return back to close to normal by Monday
with increasing humidity. The warm temps will not last too long as a
trough amplifies across the Northern Plains while the ridge
retrogrades west, allowing for a cold front to move through the CWA.
At this time the GFS and EC depict increasing precip chances
beginning very late TUE but more so WED afternoon and evening
associated with the cold frontal passage. Beyond the fcst period the
trough should continue to impact the CWA with several days of below
normal temperatures to finish out next week. We shall see...

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

Area of rain over southern KS and MO will continue tracking east and
remain well south of the terminals. VFR conditions with weak high
pressure resulting in light winds veering from the northeast to east-
southeast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KLSX 302253
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
553 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Not many changes in store for tonight. Diurnal cu will dissipate
after sunset, but ci shield shud remain largely in place. S/W over
KS/OK region shud begin to dig slightly as the upper low over
Hudson Bay helps to push it swd. This shud keep precip S of the
CWA overnight. Latest RADAR trends show precip is further N than
mdl guidance suggests. However, much of the precip over SW MO is
largely convective and shud gradually dissipate, at least
partially, after sunset. All of that said, have added slight PoPs
to the srn tier of counties late tonight to account for
uncertainty in the nrn edge of the precip shield.

As for temps tonight, with light winds and clouds clearing out,
have trended twd the cooler guidance tonight except for srn
portions of the CWA where clouds will linger thru the night.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Persistent longwave trough is still forecast to dominate the
weather pattern through the rest of the work week and into this
weekend. Complex of light/moderate rain should stay mainly south
of the area through Thursday with far southern sections of the
CWFA possibly being either skirted by the rain shield or isolated
-shra/-tsra that develops with diurnal instability Thursday
afternoon. Slight chance of showers or storms will again be
diurnally driven on Friday/Saturday. Sunday through Tuesday at
least looks dry with slowly moderating temperatures to near normal
by Tuesday. Next best chance of any widespread sort of rain looks
to be next Wednesday/Thursday as flow aloft becomes more zonal and
a frontal boundary slowly progresses through the region.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 553 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Dry and VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites through the
period with light and variable winds. The large area of showers
over southwest Missouri is expected to stay well south of all of
the terminals.

Specifics for KSTL: Dry and VFR conditions are expected over the
next 30 hours with light winds.

Britt

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     64  86  66  85 /  10  10   5  20
Quincy          58  83  62  80 /  10  10  10  20
Columbia        59  84  61  83 /  10  10   5  20
Jefferson City  60  84  61  83 /  10  10   5  20
Salem           58  83  62  83 /  10  10   5  20
Farmington      60  78  59  81 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 302253
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
553 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Not many changes in store for tonight. Diurnal cu will dissipate
after sunset, but ci shield shud remain largely in place. S/W over
KS/OK region shud begin to dig slightly as the upper low over
Hudson Bay helps to push it swd. This shud keep precip S of the
CWA overnight. Latest RADAR trends show precip is further N than
mdl guidance suggests. However, much of the precip over SW MO is
largely convective and shud gradually dissipate, at least
partially, after sunset. All of that said, have added slight PoPs
to the srn tier of counties late tonight to account for
uncertainty in the nrn edge of the precip shield.

As for temps tonight, with light winds and clouds clearing out,
have trended twd the cooler guidance tonight except for srn
portions of the CWA where clouds will linger thru the night.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Persistent longwave trough is still forecast to dominate the
weather pattern through the rest of the work week and into this
weekend. Complex of light/moderate rain should stay mainly south
of the area through Thursday with far southern sections of the
CWFA possibly being either skirted by the rain shield or isolated
-shra/-tsra that develops with diurnal instability Thursday
afternoon. Slight chance of showers or storms will again be
diurnally driven on Friday/Saturday. Sunday through Tuesday at
least looks dry with slowly moderating temperatures to near normal
by Tuesday. Next best chance of any widespread sort of rain looks
to be next Wednesday/Thursday as flow aloft becomes more zonal and
a frontal boundary slowly progresses through the region.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 553 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Dry and VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites through the
period with light and variable winds. The large area of showers
over southwest Missouri is expected to stay well south of all of
the terminals.

Specifics for KSTL: Dry and VFR conditions are expected over the
next 30 hours with light winds.

Britt

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     64  86  66  85 /  10  10   5  20
Quincy          58  83  62  80 /  10  10  10  20
Columbia        59  84  61  83 /  10  10   5  20
Jefferson City  60  84  61  83 /  10  10   5  20
Salem           58  83  62  83 /  10  10   5  20
Farmington      60  78  59  81 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 302253
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
553 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Not many changes in store for tonight. Diurnal cu will dissipate
after sunset, but ci shield shud remain largely in place. S/W over
KS/OK region shud begin to dig slightly as the upper low over
Hudson Bay helps to push it swd. This shud keep precip S of the
CWA overnight. Latest RADAR trends show precip is further N than
mdl guidance suggests. However, much of the precip over SW MO is
largely convective and shud gradually dissipate, at least
partially, after sunset. All of that said, have added slight PoPs
to the srn tier of counties late tonight to account for
uncertainty in the nrn edge of the precip shield.

As for temps tonight, with light winds and clouds clearing out,
have trended twd the cooler guidance tonight except for srn
portions of the CWA where clouds will linger thru the night.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Persistent longwave trough is still forecast to dominate the
weather pattern through the rest of the work week and into this
weekend. Complex of light/moderate rain should stay mainly south
of the area through Thursday with far southern sections of the
CWFA possibly being either skirted by the rain shield or isolated
-shra/-tsra that develops with diurnal instability Thursday
afternoon. Slight chance of showers or storms will again be
diurnally driven on Friday/Saturday. Sunday through Tuesday at
least looks dry with slowly moderating temperatures to near normal
by Tuesday. Next best chance of any widespread sort of rain looks
to be next Wednesday/Thursday as flow aloft becomes more zonal and
a frontal boundary slowly progresses through the region.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 553 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Dry and VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites through the
period with light and variable winds. The large area of showers
over southwest Missouri is expected to stay well south of all of
the terminals.

Specifics for KSTL: Dry and VFR conditions are expected over the
next 30 hours with light winds.

Britt

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     64  86  66  85 /  10  10   5  20
Quincy          58  83  62  80 /  10  10  10  20
Columbia        59  84  61  83 /  10  10   5  20
Jefferson City  60  84  61  83 /  10  10   5  20
Salem           58  83  62  83 /  10  10   5  20
Farmington      60  78  59  81 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 302253
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
553 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Not many changes in store for tonight. Diurnal cu will dissipate
after sunset, but ci shield shud remain largely in place. S/W over
KS/OK region shud begin to dig slightly as the upper low over
Hudson Bay helps to push it swd. This shud keep precip S of the
CWA overnight. Latest RADAR trends show precip is further N than
mdl guidance suggests. However, much of the precip over SW MO is
largely convective and shud gradually dissipate, at least
partially, after sunset. All of that said, have added slight PoPs
to the srn tier of counties late tonight to account for
uncertainty in the nrn edge of the precip shield.

As for temps tonight, with light winds and clouds clearing out,
have trended twd the cooler guidance tonight except for srn
portions of the CWA where clouds will linger thru the night.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Persistent longwave trough is still forecast to dominate the
weather pattern through the rest of the work week and into this
weekend. Complex of light/moderate rain should stay mainly south
of the area through Thursday with far southern sections of the
CWFA possibly being either skirted by the rain shield or isolated
-shra/-tsra that develops with diurnal instability Thursday
afternoon. Slight chance of showers or storms will again be
diurnally driven on Friday/Saturday. Sunday through Tuesday at
least looks dry with slowly moderating temperatures to near normal
by Tuesday. Next best chance of any widespread sort of rain looks
to be next Wednesday/Thursday as flow aloft becomes more zonal and
a frontal boundary slowly progresses through the region.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 553 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Dry and VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites through the
period with light and variable winds. The large area of showers
over southwest Missouri is expected to stay well south of all of
the terminals.

Specifics for KSTL: Dry and VFR conditions are expected over the
next 30 hours with light winds.

Britt

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     64  86  66  85 /  10  10   5  20
Quincy          58  83  62  80 /  10  10  10  20
Columbia        59  84  61  83 /  10  10   5  20
Jefferson City  60  84  61  83 /  10  10   5  20
Salem           58  83  62  83 /  10  10   5  20
Farmington      60  78  59  81 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 302025
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
325 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)

Light to moderate rain has spread across southeast Kansas and
southwest Missouri today. Essentially from Fort Scott Kansas to
Bull Shoals Lake...and to the southwest has experienced this
precipitation today.

Locations across central Stone County and over into southern
Lawrence County are now approaching two inches of measured rain.
These areas have been placed within an elevated risk for flooding
through tonight, as additional rainfall takes place across
southwest Missouri.

Speaking of tonight, we noticed that the MCV over north central
Oklahoma was taking more of a northerly track this afternoon,
almost moving due east with time. We have increased precipitation
chances significantly across southern Missouri through tonights
period, with the possibility of heavier rain affecting southern
Missouri. As a matter of fact, WPC has now included far SW MO
within a slight risk for excessive rainfall in their Day 1
Outlook.

There should be a sharp cutoff in rainfall on the northern edge of
the precipitation shield. Locations along Highway 54 and to the
north will likely remain dry through this whole episode.

Rain will persist across southern Missouri Thursday, before coming
to an end Thursday afternoon. Look for highs to only reach the 70s
again tomorrow over southern MO, with highs in the lower 80s in
central MO.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)

Starting Thursday night, an extended period of dry weather is
expected for the nation`s midsection. A gradual warm up is also in
line, with highs in the 80s on an afternoon basis through Sunday.
We could get into the 90 degree weather early next week,
particularly Monday and Tuesday. Overnight lows through early next
week will fall into the 60s.

The next significant chance for rain will occur Wednesday or
Thursday of next week. Models have been signaling an upper
shortwave and associated frontal system to swing across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...An upper level disturbance is
currently push south across the plains early this morning.
Scattered showers are developing across southeastern Kansas and
far western Missouri ahead of this feature. This scattered shower
activity will continue through the morning hours and will affect
all the TAF sites at times.

An area of showers will then push east across Oklahoma into
Arkansas this afternoon as the upper level disturbance pushes to
the east. The bulk of this activity will remain to the south, but
these showers will likely just clip the Joplin and Branson areas.
This activity should then spread out of the area by this evening.

Winds will generally be light and variable through much of the TAF
period. MVFR ceilings and some light fog will be possible tonight
mainly at the KJLN and KBBG TAF sites.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Wise






000
FXUS63 KSGF 302025
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
325 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)

Light to moderate rain has spread across southeast Kansas and
southwest Missouri today. Essentially from Fort Scott Kansas to
Bull Shoals Lake...and to the southwest has experienced this
precipitation today.

Locations across central Stone County and over into southern
Lawrence County are now approaching two inches of measured rain.
These areas have been placed within an elevated risk for flooding
through tonight, as additional rainfall takes place across
southwest Missouri.

Speaking of tonight, we noticed that the MCV over north central
Oklahoma was taking more of a northerly track this afternoon,
almost moving due east with time. We have increased precipitation
chances significantly across southern Missouri through tonights
period, with the possibility of heavier rain affecting southern
Missouri. As a matter of fact, WPC has now included far SW MO
within a slight risk for excessive rainfall in their Day 1
Outlook.

There should be a sharp cutoff in rainfall on the northern edge of
the precipitation shield. Locations along Highway 54 and to the
north will likely remain dry through this whole episode.

Rain will persist across southern Missouri Thursday, before coming
to an end Thursday afternoon. Look for highs to only reach the 70s
again tomorrow over southern MO, with highs in the lower 80s in
central MO.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)

Starting Thursday night, an extended period of dry weather is
expected for the nation`s midsection. A gradual warm up is also in
line, with highs in the 80s on an afternoon basis through Sunday.
We could get into the 90 degree weather early next week,
particularly Monday and Tuesday. Overnight lows through early next
week will fall into the 60s.

The next significant chance for rain will occur Wednesday or
Thursday of next week. Models have been signaling an upper
shortwave and associated frontal system to swing across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...An upper level disturbance is
currently push south across the plains early this morning.
Scattered showers are developing across southeastern Kansas and
far western Missouri ahead of this feature. This scattered shower
activity will continue through the morning hours and will affect
all the TAF sites at times.

An area of showers will then push east across Oklahoma into
Arkansas this afternoon as the upper level disturbance pushes to
the east. The bulk of this activity will remain to the south, but
these showers will likely just clip the Joplin and Branson areas.
This activity should then spread out of the area by this evening.

Winds will generally be light and variable through much of the TAF
period. MVFR ceilings and some light fog will be possible tonight
mainly at the KJLN and KBBG TAF sites.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Wise






000
FXUS63 KSGF 302025
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
325 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)

Light to moderate rain has spread across southeast Kansas and
southwest Missouri today. Essentially from Fort Scott Kansas to
Bull Shoals Lake...and to the southwest has experienced this
precipitation today.

Locations across central Stone County and over into southern
Lawrence County are now approaching two inches of measured rain.
These areas have been placed within an elevated risk for flooding
through tonight, as additional rainfall takes place across
southwest Missouri.

Speaking of tonight, we noticed that the MCV over north central
Oklahoma was taking more of a northerly track this afternoon,
almost moving due east with time. We have increased precipitation
chances significantly across southern Missouri through tonights
period, with the possibility of heavier rain affecting southern
Missouri. As a matter of fact, WPC has now included far SW MO
within a slight risk for excessive rainfall in their Day 1
Outlook.

There should be a sharp cutoff in rainfall on the northern edge of
the precipitation shield. Locations along Highway 54 and to the
north will likely remain dry through this whole episode.

Rain will persist across southern Missouri Thursday, before coming
to an end Thursday afternoon. Look for highs to only reach the 70s
again tomorrow over southern MO, with highs in the lower 80s in
central MO.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)

Starting Thursday night, an extended period of dry weather is
expected for the nation`s midsection. A gradual warm up is also in
line, with highs in the 80s on an afternoon basis through Sunday.
We could get into the 90 degree weather early next week,
particularly Monday and Tuesday. Overnight lows through early next
week will fall into the 60s.

The next significant chance for rain will occur Wednesday or
Thursday of next week. Models have been signaling an upper
shortwave and associated frontal system to swing across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...An upper level disturbance is
currently push south across the plains early this morning.
Scattered showers are developing across southeastern Kansas and
far western Missouri ahead of this feature. This scattered shower
activity will continue through the morning hours and will affect
all the TAF sites at times.

An area of showers will then push east across Oklahoma into
Arkansas this afternoon as the upper level disturbance pushes to
the east. The bulk of this activity will remain to the south, but
these showers will likely just clip the Joplin and Branson areas.
This activity should then spread out of the area by this evening.

Winds will generally be light and variable through much of the TAF
period. MVFR ceilings and some light fog will be possible tonight
mainly at the KJLN and KBBG TAF sites.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Wise






000
FXUS63 KSGF 302025
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
325 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)

Light to moderate rain has spread across southeast Kansas and
southwest Missouri today. Essentially from Fort Scott Kansas to
Bull Shoals Lake...and to the southwest has experienced this
precipitation today.

Locations across central Stone County and over into southern
Lawrence County are now approaching two inches of measured rain.
These areas have been placed within an elevated risk for flooding
through tonight, as additional rainfall takes place across
southwest Missouri.

Speaking of tonight, we noticed that the MCV over north central
Oklahoma was taking more of a northerly track this afternoon,
almost moving due east with time. We have increased precipitation
chances significantly across southern Missouri through tonights
period, with the possibility of heavier rain affecting southern
Missouri. As a matter of fact, WPC has now included far SW MO
within a slight risk for excessive rainfall in their Day 1
Outlook.

There should be a sharp cutoff in rainfall on the northern edge of
the precipitation shield. Locations along Highway 54 and to the
north will likely remain dry through this whole episode.

Rain will persist across southern Missouri Thursday, before coming
to an end Thursday afternoon. Look for highs to only reach the 70s
again tomorrow over southern MO, with highs in the lower 80s in
central MO.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)

Starting Thursday night, an extended period of dry weather is
expected for the nation`s midsection. A gradual warm up is also in
line, with highs in the 80s on an afternoon basis through Sunday.
We could get into the 90 degree weather early next week,
particularly Monday and Tuesday. Overnight lows through early next
week will fall into the 60s.

The next significant chance for rain will occur Wednesday or
Thursday of next week. Models have been signaling an upper
shortwave and associated frontal system to swing across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...An upper level disturbance is
currently push south across the plains early this morning.
Scattered showers are developing across southeastern Kansas and
far western Missouri ahead of this feature. This scattered shower
activity will continue through the morning hours and will affect
all the TAF sites at times.

An area of showers will then push east across Oklahoma into
Arkansas this afternoon as the upper level disturbance pushes to
the east. The bulk of this activity will remain to the south, but
these showers will likely just clip the Joplin and Branson areas.
This activity should then spread out of the area by this evening.

Winds will generally be light and variable through much of the TAF
period. MVFR ceilings and some light fog will be possible tonight
mainly at the KJLN and KBBG TAF sites.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Wise






000
FXUS63 KLSX 301956
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
256 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Not many changes in store for tonight. Diurnal cu will dissipate
after sunset, but ci shield shud remain largely in place. S/W over
KS/OK region shud begin to dig slightly as the upper low over
Hudson Bay helps to push it swd. This shud keep precip S of the
CWA overnight. Latest RADAR trends show precip is further N than
mdl guidance suggests. However, much of the precip over SW MO is
largely convective and shud gradually dissipate, at least
partially, after sunset. All of that said, have added slight PoPs
to the srn tier of counties late tonight to account for
uncertainty in the nrn edge of the precip shield.

As for temps tonight, with light winds and clouds clearing out,
have trended twd the cooler guidance tonight except for srn
portions of the CWA where clouds will linger thru the night.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Persistent longwave trough is still forecast to dominate the
weather pattern through the rest of the work week and into this
weekend. Complex of light/moderate rain should stay mainly south
of the area through Thursday with far southern sections of the
CWFA possibly being either skirted by the rain shield or isolated
-shra/-tsra that develops with diurnal instability Thursday
afternoon. Slight chance of showers or storms will again be
diurnally driven on Friday/Saturday. Sunday through Tuesday at
least looks dry with slowly moderating temperatures to near normal
by Tuesday. Next best chance of any widepsread sort of rain looks
to be next Wednesday/Thursday as flow aloft becomes more zonal and
a frontal boundary slowly progresses through the region.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

VFR and dry with winds aob 8 kts expected thru the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     64  86  66  85 /  10  10   5  20
Quincy          58  83  62  80 /  10  10  10  20
Columbia        59  84  61  83 /  10  10   5  20
Jefferson City  60  84  61  83 /  10  10   5  20
Salem           58  83  62  83 /  10  10   5  20
Farmington      60  78  59  81 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 301956
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
256 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Not many changes in store for tonight. Diurnal cu will dissipate
after sunset, but ci shield shud remain largely in place. S/W over
KS/OK region shud begin to dig slightly as the upper low over
Hudson Bay helps to push it swd. This shud keep precip S of the
CWA overnight. Latest RADAR trends show precip is further N than
mdl guidance suggests. However, much of the precip over SW MO is
largely convective and shud gradually dissipate, at least
partially, after sunset. All of that said, have added slight PoPs
to the srn tier of counties late tonight to account for
uncertainty in the nrn edge of the precip shield.

As for temps tonight, with light winds and clouds clearing out,
have trended twd the cooler guidance tonight except for srn
portions of the CWA where clouds will linger thru the night.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Persistent longwave trough is still forecast to dominate the
weather pattern through the rest of the work week and into this
weekend. Complex of light/moderate rain should stay mainly south
of the area through Thursday with far southern sections of the
CWFA possibly being either skirted by the rain shield or isolated
-shra/-tsra that develops with diurnal instability Thursday
afternoon. Slight chance of showers or storms will again be
diurnally driven on Friday/Saturday. Sunday through Tuesday at
least looks dry with slowly moderating temperatures to near normal
by Tuesday. Next best chance of any widepsread sort of rain looks
to be next Wednesday/Thursday as flow aloft becomes more zonal and
a frontal boundary slowly progresses through the region.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

VFR and dry with winds aob 8 kts expected thru the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     64  86  66  85 /  10  10   5  20
Quincy          58  83  62  80 /  10  10  10  20
Columbia        59  84  61  83 /  10  10   5  20
Jefferson City  60  84  61  83 /  10  10   5  20
Salem           58  83  62  83 /  10  10   5  20
Farmington      60  78  59  81 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 301950
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
250 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

Not a lot going on for this fcst issuance as the incredibly
pleasant temperatures continue. Other than a few light showers
clipping southern Linn County this afternoon, the CWA should remain
dry through much of the fcst period as northwest flow persists
associated with a deep low pressure over the lower Hudson Bay region.
The low will very slowly lift north allowing for rising heights and
warmer temperatures by the end of the weekend and into early next
week.

As the current ridge of high pressure over the western CONUS builds
east we should see temps return back to close to normal by Monday
with increasing humidity. The warm temps will not last too long as a
trough amplifies across the Northern Plains while the ridge
retrogrades west, allowing for a cold front to move through the CWA.
At this time the GFS and EC depict increasing precip chances
beginning very late TUE but more so WED afternoon and evening
associated with the cold frontal passage. Beyond the fcst period the
trough should continue to impact the CWA with several days of below
normal temperatures to finish out next week. We shall see...

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the period along with light
winds. A storm system to our southwest is producing the current mid-
level cloud deck. The deck will slowly move off to the south and east
this afternoon and tonight.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Pietrycha






000
FXUS63 KLSX 301919
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
219 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Not many changes in store for tonight. Diurnal cu will dissipate
after sunset, but ci shield shud remain largely in place. S/W over
KS/OK region shud begin to dig slightly as the upper low over
Hudson Bay helps to push it swd. This shud keep precip S of the
CWA overnight. Latest RADAR trends show precip is further N than
mdl guidance suggests. However, much of the precip over SW MO is
largely convective and shud gradually dissipate, at least
partially, after sunset. All of that said, have added slight PoPs
to the srn tier of counties late tonight to account for
uncertainty in the nrn edge of the precip shield.

As for temps tonight, with light winds and clouds clearing out,
have trended twd the cooler guidance tonight except for srn
portions of the CWA where clouds will linger thru the night.

Tilly

.LONG TERM: (Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

In the continued absence of any strong signals for either
widespread precip or hot/humid conditions, there has been little
change in thinking since the previous forecast package was issued.
Ongoing northwest flow pattern will maintain cooler than average
temperatures through the end of the week and into the first part
of the weekend. Occasional ill-defined shortwaves moving through
the longwave trough might produce light rain showers or even a few
thunderstorms over the next few days, especially during the
afternoon hours. The upper air pattern begins to change over the
weekend, and temperatures/humidity are expected to warm back
towards seasonable levels next week after the departure of the
longwave trough over the eastern CONUS and the return of southerly
low-level flow over MO/IL.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

VFR and dry with winds aob 8 kts expected thru the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     85  64  86  66 /  10  10  10   5
Quincy          82  58  83  62 /  10  10  10  10
Columbia        82  59  84  61 /  10  10  10   5
Jefferson City  82  60  84  61 /  10  10  10   5
Salem           83  58  83  62 /  10  10  10   5
Farmington      77  60  78  59 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 301919
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
219 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Not many changes in store for tonight. Diurnal cu will dissipate
after sunset, but ci shield shud remain largely in place. S/W over
KS/OK region shud begin to dig slightly as the upper low over
Hudson Bay helps to push it swd. This shud keep precip S of the
CWA overnight. Latest RADAR trends show precip is further N than
mdl guidance suggests. However, much of the precip over SW MO is
largely convective and shud gradually dissipate, at least
partially, after sunset. All of that said, have added slight PoPs
to the srn tier of counties late tonight to account for
uncertainty in the nrn edge of the precip shield.

As for temps tonight, with light winds and clouds clearing out,
have trended twd the cooler guidance tonight except for srn
portions of the CWA where clouds will linger thru the night.

Tilly

.LONG TERM: (Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

In the continued absence of any strong signals for either
widespread precip or hot/humid conditions, there has been little
change in thinking since the previous forecast package was issued.
Ongoing northwest flow pattern will maintain cooler than average
temperatures through the end of the week and into the first part
of the weekend. Occasional ill-defined shortwaves moving through
the longwave trough might produce light rain showers or even a few
thunderstorms over the next few days, especially during the
afternoon hours. The upper air pattern begins to change over the
weekend, and temperatures/humidity are expected to warm back
towards seasonable levels next week after the departure of the
longwave trough over the eastern CONUS and the return of southerly
low-level flow over MO/IL.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

VFR and dry with winds aob 8 kts expected thru the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     85  64  86  66 /  10  10  10   5
Quincy          82  58  83  62 /  10  10  10  10
Columbia        82  59  84  61 /  10  10  10   5
Jefferson City  82  60  84  61 /  10  10  10   5
Salem           83  58  83  62 /  10  10  10   5
Farmington      77  60  78  59 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 301919
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
219 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Not many changes in store for tonight. Diurnal cu will dissipate
after sunset, but ci shield shud remain largely in place. S/W over
KS/OK region shud begin to dig slightly as the upper low over
Hudson Bay helps to push it swd. This shud keep precip S of the
CWA overnight. Latest RADAR trends show precip is further N than
mdl guidance suggests. However, much of the precip over SW MO is
largely convective and shud gradually dissipate, at least
partially, after sunset. All of that said, have added slight PoPs
to the srn tier of counties late tonight to account for
uncertainty in the nrn edge of the precip shield.

As for temps tonight, with light winds and clouds clearing out,
have trended twd the cooler guidance tonight except for srn
portions of the CWA where clouds will linger thru the night.

Tilly

.LONG TERM: (Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

In the continued absence of any strong signals for either
widespread precip or hot/humid conditions, there has been little
change in thinking since the previous forecast package was issued.
Ongoing northwest flow pattern will maintain cooler than average
temperatures through the end of the week and into the first part
of the weekend. Occasional ill-defined shortwaves moving through
the longwave trough might produce light rain showers or even a few
thunderstorms over the next few days, especially during the
afternoon hours. The upper air pattern begins to change over the
weekend, and temperatures/humidity are expected to warm back
towards seasonable levels next week after the departure of the
longwave trough over the eastern CONUS and the return of southerly
low-level flow over MO/IL.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

VFR and dry with winds aob 8 kts expected thru the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     85  64  86  66 /  10  10  10   5
Quincy          82  58  83  62 /  10  10  10  10
Columbia        82  59  84  61 /  10  10  10   5
Jefferson City  82  60  84  61 /  10  10  10   5
Salem           83  58  83  62 /  10  10  10   5
Farmington      77  60  78  59 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 301919
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
219 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Not many changes in store for tonight. Diurnal cu will dissipate
after sunset, but ci shield shud remain largely in place. S/W over
KS/OK region shud begin to dig slightly as the upper low over
Hudson Bay helps to push it swd. This shud keep precip S of the
CWA overnight. Latest RADAR trends show precip is further N than
mdl guidance suggests. However, much of the precip over SW MO is
largely convective and shud gradually dissipate, at least
partially, after sunset. All of that said, have added slight PoPs
to the srn tier of counties late tonight to account for
uncertainty in the nrn edge of the precip shield.

As for temps tonight, with light winds and clouds clearing out,
have trended twd the cooler guidance tonight except for srn
portions of the CWA where clouds will linger thru the night.

Tilly

.LONG TERM: (Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

In the continued absence of any strong signals for either
widespread precip or hot/humid conditions, there has been little
change in thinking since the previous forecast package was issued.
Ongoing northwest flow pattern will maintain cooler than average
temperatures through the end of the week and into the first part
of the weekend. Occasional ill-defined shortwaves moving through
the longwave trough might produce light rain showers or even a few
thunderstorms over the next few days, especially during the
afternoon hours. The upper air pattern begins to change over the
weekend, and temperatures/humidity are expected to warm back
towards seasonable levels next week after the departure of the
longwave trough over the eastern CONUS and the return of southerly
low-level flow over MO/IL.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

VFR and dry with winds aob 8 kts expected thru the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     85  64  86  66 /  10  10  10   5
Quincy          82  58  83  62 /  10  10  10  10
Columbia        82  59  84  61 /  10  10  10   5
Jefferson City  82  60  84  61 /  10  10  10   5
Salem           83  58  83  62 /  10  10  10   5
Farmington      77  60  78  59 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 301730
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1230 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Quick update to mainly adjust temps and cloud cover thru the
afternoon. Increased clouds across srn counties and therefore also
decreased temps slightly and raised temps across the remainder of
the CWA by a couple of degrees. Is still some question regarding
precip across the srn tier of counties, but will leave the
forecast dry for now. More uncertainty remains during the
overnight hours as the system continues to approach the region.
Again, will keep a dry forecast for now, but PoPs may need to be
added for tonight with further updates.

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s will be around 5-10 degrees
below average for this time of year, similar to yesterday. Although
a few isolated light rain showers or sprinkles cannot be ruled
out, most areas should remain dry this afternoon. Good radiational
cooling conditions within a relatively dry air mass (Tds in the
50s) should yield another night with lows in the upper 50s to
around 60 degrees.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM: (Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

In the continued absence of any strong signals for either
widespread precip or hot/humid conditions, there has been little
change in thinking since the previous forecast package was issued.
Ongoing northwest flow pattern will maintain cooler than average
temperatures through the end of the week and into the first part
of the weekend. Occasional ill-defined shortwaves moving through
the longwave trough might produce light rain showers or even a few
thunderstorms over the next few days, especially during the
afternoon hours. The upper air pattern begins to change over the
weekend, and temperatures/humidity are expected to warm back
towards seasonable levels next week after the departure of the
longwave trough over the eastern CONUS and the return of southerly
low-level flow over MO/IL.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

VFR and dry with winds aob 8 kts expected thru the period.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 301721
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1221 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A few light, widely scattered showers are possible early this
morning through early afternoon as a shortwave trough heads east
southeast across portions of southern KS and southeast Missouri. Any
precipitation amounts should be fairly light in our CWA, and should
be confined to areas southwest of the KC metro. By early to mid
afternoon, a decent push of dry air between 700-500 mb will head
southward, cutting off precipitation chances and eroding cloud cover
from north to south. Temperatures are still expected to rise into
the lower 80s this afternoon, but highs may be reached a bit later
in the day as cloud cover diminishes.

Synoptic models continue to produce spurious convection through the
week as a series of weak shortwave troughs dip southeastward, but a
fairly deep layer of very dry air entrenched across the region
should keep precipitation chances very minimal. Have kept a dry
forecast from this evening through early next week, when the pattern
finally starts to change. Continued northwest flow aloft will keep
temperatures several degrees below normal this week through the
weekend, holding high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s and lows
in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

The upper trough over the Great Lakes will eventually depart early
next week, allowing ridging to shift eastward across the Plains and
southerly flow to return at low levels. This should allow slightly
warmer temperatures and higher low-level moisture to be ushered back
into the region, slightly raising the chance for precipitation with
any systems that traverse the CWA. Currently, long-range models
drape a nearly stationary surface boundary near or slightly north of
the CWA Tuesday into Tuesday night, and allow this feature to sink
southward with time. Have added some lower-end PoPs for the end of
the forecast period Tuesday night through Wednesday, but timing and
position of any storm chances will need to be refined more in future
forecast issuances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the period along with light
winds. A storm system to our southwest is producing the current mid-
level cloud deck. The deck will slowly move off to the south and east
this afternoon and tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Pietrycha






000
FXUS63 KEAX 301721
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1221 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A few light, widely scattered showers are possible early this
morning through early afternoon as a shortwave trough heads east
southeast across portions of southern KS and southeast Missouri. Any
precipitation amounts should be fairly light in our CWA, and should
be confined to areas southwest of the KC metro. By early to mid
afternoon, a decent push of dry air between 700-500 mb will head
southward, cutting off precipitation chances and eroding cloud cover
from north to south. Temperatures are still expected to rise into
the lower 80s this afternoon, but highs may be reached a bit later
in the day as cloud cover diminishes.

Synoptic models continue to produce spurious convection through the
week as a series of weak shortwave troughs dip southeastward, but a
fairly deep layer of very dry air entrenched across the region
should keep precipitation chances very minimal. Have kept a dry
forecast from this evening through early next week, when the pattern
finally starts to change. Continued northwest flow aloft will keep
temperatures several degrees below normal this week through the
weekend, holding high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s and lows
in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

The upper trough over the Great Lakes will eventually depart early
next week, allowing ridging to shift eastward across the Plains and
southerly flow to return at low levels. This should allow slightly
warmer temperatures and higher low-level moisture to be ushered back
into the region, slightly raising the chance for precipitation with
any systems that traverse the CWA. Currently, long-range models
drape a nearly stationary surface boundary near or slightly north of
the CWA Tuesday into Tuesday night, and allow this feature to sink
southward with time. Have added some lower-end PoPs for the end of
the forecast period Tuesday night through Wednesday, but timing and
position of any storm chances will need to be refined more in future
forecast issuances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the period along with light
winds. A storm system to our southwest is producing the current mid-
level cloud deck. The deck will slowly move off to the south and east
this afternoon and tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Pietrycha






000
FXUS63 KEAX 301721
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1221 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A few light, widely scattered showers are possible early this
morning through early afternoon as a shortwave trough heads east
southeast across portions of southern KS and southeast Missouri. Any
precipitation amounts should be fairly light in our CWA, and should
be confined to areas southwest of the KC metro. By early to mid
afternoon, a decent push of dry air between 700-500 mb will head
southward, cutting off precipitation chances and eroding cloud cover
from north to south. Temperatures are still expected to rise into
the lower 80s this afternoon, but highs may be reached a bit later
in the day as cloud cover diminishes.

Synoptic models continue to produce spurious convection through the
week as a series of weak shortwave troughs dip southeastward, but a
fairly deep layer of very dry air entrenched across the region
should keep precipitation chances very minimal. Have kept a dry
forecast from this evening through early next week, when the pattern
finally starts to change. Continued northwest flow aloft will keep
temperatures several degrees below normal this week through the
weekend, holding high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s and lows
in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

The upper trough over the Great Lakes will eventually depart early
next week, allowing ridging to shift eastward across the Plains and
southerly flow to return at low levels. This should allow slightly
warmer temperatures and higher low-level moisture to be ushered back
into the region, slightly raising the chance for precipitation with
any systems that traverse the CWA. Currently, long-range models
drape a nearly stationary surface boundary near or slightly north of
the CWA Tuesday into Tuesday night, and allow this feature to sink
southward with time. Have added some lower-end PoPs for the end of
the forecast period Tuesday night through Wednesday, but timing and
position of any storm chances will need to be refined more in future
forecast issuances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the period along with light
winds. A storm system to our southwest is producing the current mid-
level cloud deck. The deck will slowly move off to the south and east
this afternoon and tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Pietrycha






000
FXUS63 KEAX 301721
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1221 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A few light, widely scattered showers are possible early this
morning through early afternoon as a shortwave trough heads east
southeast across portions of southern KS and southeast Missouri. Any
precipitation amounts should be fairly light in our CWA, and should
be confined to areas southwest of the KC metro. By early to mid
afternoon, a decent push of dry air between 700-500 mb will head
southward, cutting off precipitation chances and eroding cloud cover
from north to south. Temperatures are still expected to rise into
the lower 80s this afternoon, but highs may be reached a bit later
in the day as cloud cover diminishes.

Synoptic models continue to produce spurious convection through the
week as a series of weak shortwave troughs dip southeastward, but a
fairly deep layer of very dry air entrenched across the region
should keep precipitation chances very minimal. Have kept a dry
forecast from this evening through early next week, when the pattern
finally starts to change. Continued northwest flow aloft will keep
temperatures several degrees below normal this week through the
weekend, holding high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s and lows
in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

The upper trough over the Great Lakes will eventually depart early
next week, allowing ridging to shift eastward across the Plains and
southerly flow to return at low levels. This should allow slightly
warmer temperatures and higher low-level moisture to be ushered back
into the region, slightly raising the chance for precipitation with
any systems that traverse the CWA. Currently, long-range models
drape a nearly stationary surface boundary near or slightly north of
the CWA Tuesday into Tuesday night, and allow this feature to sink
southward with time. Have added some lower-end PoPs for the end of
the forecast period Tuesday night through Wednesday, but timing and
position of any storm chances will need to be refined more in future
forecast issuances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the period along with light
winds. A storm system to our southwest is producing the current mid-
level cloud deck. The deck will slowly move off to the south and east
this afternoon and tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Pietrycha






000
FXUS63 KLSX 301714
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1214 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Quick update to mainly adjust temps and cloud cover thru the
afternoon. Increased clouds across srn counties and therefore also
decreased temps slightly and raised temps across the remainder of
the CWA by a couple of degrees. Is still some question regarding
precip across the srn tier of counties, but will leave the
forecast dry for now. More uncertainty remains during the
overnight hours as the system continues to approach the region.
Again, will keep a dry forecast for now, but PoPs may need to be
added for tonight with further updates.

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s will be around 5-10 degrees
below average for this time of year, similar to yesterday. Although
a few isolated light rain showers or sprinkles cannot be ruled
out, most areas should remain dry this afternoon. Good radiational
cooling conditions within a relatively dry air mass (Tds in the
50s) should yield another night with lows in the upper 50s to
around 60 degrees.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM: (Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

In the continued absence of any strong signals for either
widespread precip or hot/humid conditions, there has been little
change in thinking since the previous forecast package was issued.
Ongoing northwest flow pattern will maintain cooler than average
temperatures through the end of the week and into the first part
of the weekend. Occasional ill-defined shortwaves moving through
the longwave trough might produce light rain showers or even a few
thunderstorms over the next few days, especially during the
afternoon hours. The upper air pattern begins to change over the
weekend, and temperatures/humidity are expected to warm back
towards seasonable levels next week after the departure of the
longwave trough over the eastern CONUS and the return of southerly
low-level flow over MO/IL.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Other than some locallized radiational fog for the next hour or
so, VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast
period. Surface high pressure will remain in control resulting in
light winds, while clouds will consist of diurnal cu and high clouds.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Surface high pressure will remain in control resulting in light
winds, while clouds will consist of diurnal cu and high clouds.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 301714
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1214 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Quick update to mainly adjust temps and cloud cover thru the
afternoon. Increased clouds across srn counties and therefore also
decreased temps slightly and raised temps across the remainder of
the CWA by a couple of degrees. Is still some question regarding
precip across the srn tier of counties, but will leave the
forecast dry for now. More uncertainty remains during the
overnight hours as the system continues to approach the region.
Again, will keep a dry forecast for now, but PoPs may need to be
added for tonight with further updates.

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s will be around 5-10 degrees
below average for this time of year, similar to yesterday. Although
a few isolated light rain showers or sprinkles cannot be ruled
out, most areas should remain dry this afternoon. Good radiational
cooling conditions within a relatively dry air mass (Tds in the
50s) should yield another night with lows in the upper 50s to
around 60 degrees.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM: (Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

In the continued absence of any strong signals for either
widespread precip or hot/humid conditions, there has been little
change in thinking since the previous forecast package was issued.
Ongoing northwest flow pattern will maintain cooler than average
temperatures through the end of the week and into the first part
of the weekend. Occasional ill-defined shortwaves moving through
the longwave trough might produce light rain showers or even a few
thunderstorms over the next few days, especially during the
afternoon hours. The upper air pattern begins to change over the
weekend, and temperatures/humidity are expected to warm back
towards seasonable levels next week after the departure of the
longwave trough over the eastern CONUS and the return of southerly
low-level flow over MO/IL.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Other than some locallized radiational fog for the next hour or
so, VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast
period. Surface high pressure will remain in control resulting in
light winds, while clouds will consist of diurnal cu and high clouds.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Surface high pressure will remain in control resulting in light
winds, while clouds will consist of diurnal cu and high clouds.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 301125
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
625 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A few light, widely scattered showers are possible early this
morning through early afternoon as a shortwave trough heads east
southeast across portions of southern KS and southeast Missouri. Any
precipitation amounts should be fairly light in our CWA, and should
be confined to areas southwest of the KC metro. By early to mid
afternoon, a decent push of dry air between 700-500 mb will head
southward, cutting off precipitation chances and eroding cloud cover
from north to south. Temperatures are still expected to rise into
the lower 80s this afternoon, but highs may be reached a bit later
in the day as cloud cover diminishes.

Synoptic models continue to produce spurious convection through the
week as a series of weak shortwave troughs dip southeastward, but a
fairly deep layer of very dry air entrenched across the region
should keep precipitation chances very minimal. Have kept a dry
forecast from this evening through early next week, when the pattern
finally starts to change. Continued northwest flow aloft will keep
temperatures several degrees below normal this week through the
weekend, holding high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s and lows
in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

The upper trough over the Great Lakes will eventually depart early
next week, allowing ridging to shift eastward across the Plains and
southerly flow to return at low levels. This should allow slightly
warmer temperatures and higher low-level moisture to be ushered back
into the region, slightly raising the chance for precipitation with
any systems that traverse the CWA. Currently, long-range models
drape a nearly stationary surface boundary near or slightly north of
the CWA Tuesday into Tuesday night, and allow this feature to sink
southward with time. Have added some lower-end PoPs for the end of
the forecast period Tuesday night through Wednesday, but timing and
position of any storm chances will need to be refined more in future
forecast issuances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period.
The stratus deck currently around 10-12 kft will gradually erode
from north to south early in the afternoon, possibly allowing a
little diurnal cumulus to develop during the mid afternoon and
persisting through sunset. Winds will remain out of the north to
northeast at speeds around 5-7 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KLSX 301120
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
620 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s will be around 5-10 degrees
below average for this time of year, similar to yesterday. Although
a few isolated light rain showers or sprinkles cannot be ruled
out, most areas should remain dry this afternoon. Good radiational
cooling conditions within a relatively dry air mass (Tds in the
50s) should yield another night with lows in the upper 50s to
around 60 degrees.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM: (Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

In the continued absence of any strong signals for either
widespread precip or hot/humid conditions, there has been little
change in thinking since the previous forecast package was issued.
Ongoing northwest flow pattern will maintain cooler than average
temperatures through the end of the week and into the first part
of the weekend. Occasional ill-defined shortwaves moving through
the longwave trough might produce light rain showers or even a few
thunderstorms over the next few days, especially during the
afternoon hours. The upper air pattern begins to change over the
weekend, and temperatures/humidity are expected to warm back
towards seasonable levels next week after the departure of the
longwave trough over the eastern CONUS and the return of southerly
low-level flow over MO/IL.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Other than some locallized radiational fog for the next hour or
so, VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast
period. Surface high pressure will remain in control resulting in
light winds, while clouds will consist of diurnal cu and high clouds.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Surface high pressure will remain in control resulting in light
winds, while clouds will consist of diurnal cu and high clouds.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 301120
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
620 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s will be around 5-10 degrees
below average for this time of year, similar to yesterday. Although
a few isolated light rain showers or sprinkles cannot be ruled
out, most areas should remain dry this afternoon. Good radiational
cooling conditions within a relatively dry air mass (Tds in the
50s) should yield another night with lows in the upper 50s to
around 60 degrees.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM: (Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

In the continued absence of any strong signals for either
widespread precip or hot/humid conditions, there has been little
change in thinking since the previous forecast package was issued.
Ongoing northwest flow pattern will maintain cooler than average
temperatures through the end of the week and into the first part
of the weekend. Occasional ill-defined shortwaves moving through
the longwave trough might produce light rain showers or even a few
thunderstorms over the next few days, especially during the
afternoon hours. The upper air pattern begins to change over the
weekend, and temperatures/humidity are expected to warm back
towards seasonable levels next week after the departure of the
longwave trough over the eastern CONUS and the return of southerly
low-level flow over MO/IL.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Other than some locallized radiational fog for the next hour or
so, VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast
period. Surface high pressure will remain in control resulting in
light winds, while clouds will consist of diurnal cu and high clouds.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Surface high pressure will remain in control resulting in light
winds, while clouds will consist of diurnal cu and high clouds.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 301101
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
601 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

Clouds were on the increase early Wednesday in response to an
active northwesterly upper pattern positioned over the region. A
minor shortwave will track through this flow from the central High
Plains into eastern Oklahoma by tonight while our area becomes
positioned within the entrance region of the upper jet. Meanwhile
the 850-700 MB front will be oriented from western Kansas to
western Arkansas while isentropic upglide develops on the 310K
theta surface as far north as far southwestern Missouri.

The result be in an increase in showers from southeastern Kansas
into southwestern Missouri today. There will be a rather sharp
gradient in rain chances with the best chance of showers generally
south of a line from Fort Scott Kansas to Springfield and West
Plains Missouri.

Instability will be limited at best. While a few rumbles of thunder
cannot be ruled out organized thunderstorms are not expected.

The showers will persist from extreme southeastern Kansas into far
southern Missouri tonight but taper off from the north.

The below normal temperatures will persist today with highs
remaining in the 70s across portions of southern Missouri and
extreme southeastern Kansas where clouds and showers will be more
prevalent.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the region from
late week into the this weekend between an upper level ridge over
the Rockies and an upper level trough located over the northeastern
U.S. The upper ridge will expand eastward late this weekend into
early next week allowing temperatures to rise to near normal
levels.

A shortwave trough and associated front are progged to drop
southward into the central U.S. during the middle and later part
of next week bringing a chance of needed rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...An upper level disturbance is
currently push south across the plains early this morning.
Scattered showers are developing across southeastern Kansas and
far western Missouri ahead of this feature. This scattered shower
activity will continue through the morning hours and will affect
all the TAF sites at times.

An area of showers will then push east across Oklahoma into
Arkansas this afternoon as the upper level disturbance pushes to
the east. The bulk of this activity will remain to the south, but
these showers will likely just clip the Joplin and Branson areas.
This activity should then spread out of the area by this evening.

Winds will generally be light and variable through much of the TAF
period. MVFR ceilings and some light fog will be possible tonight
mainly at the KJLN and KBBG TAF sites.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise






000
FXUS63 KSGF 301101
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
601 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

Clouds were on the increase early Wednesday in response to an
active northwesterly upper pattern positioned over the region. A
minor shortwave will track through this flow from the central High
Plains into eastern Oklahoma by tonight while our area becomes
positioned within the entrance region of the upper jet. Meanwhile
the 850-700 MB front will be oriented from western Kansas to
western Arkansas while isentropic upglide develops on the 310K
theta surface as far north as far southwestern Missouri.

The result be in an increase in showers from southeastern Kansas
into southwestern Missouri today. There will be a rather sharp
gradient in rain chances with the best chance of showers generally
south of a line from Fort Scott Kansas to Springfield and West
Plains Missouri.

Instability will be limited at best. While a few rumbles of thunder
cannot be ruled out organized thunderstorms are not expected.

The showers will persist from extreme southeastern Kansas into far
southern Missouri tonight but taper off from the north.

The below normal temperatures will persist today with highs
remaining in the 70s across portions of southern Missouri and
extreme southeastern Kansas where clouds and showers will be more
prevalent.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the region from
late week into the this weekend between an upper level ridge over
the Rockies and an upper level trough located over the northeastern
U.S. The upper ridge will expand eastward late this weekend into
early next week allowing temperatures to rise to near normal
levels.

A shortwave trough and associated front are progged to drop
southward into the central U.S. during the middle and later part
of next week bringing a chance of needed rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...An upper level disturbance is
currently push south across the plains early this morning.
Scattered showers are developing across southeastern Kansas and
far western Missouri ahead of this feature. This scattered shower
activity will continue through the morning hours and will affect
all the TAF sites at times.

An area of showers will then push east across Oklahoma into
Arkansas this afternoon as the upper level disturbance pushes to
the east. The bulk of this activity will remain to the south, but
these showers will likely just clip the Joplin and Branson areas.
This activity should then spread out of the area by this evening.

Winds will generally be light and variable through much of the TAF
period. MVFR ceilings and some light fog will be possible tonight
mainly at the KJLN and KBBG TAF sites.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise






000
FXUS63 KSGF 301101
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
601 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

Clouds were on the increase early Wednesday in response to an
active northwesterly upper pattern positioned over the region. A
minor shortwave will track through this flow from the central High
Plains into eastern Oklahoma by tonight while our area becomes
positioned within the entrance region of the upper jet. Meanwhile
the 850-700 MB front will be oriented from western Kansas to
western Arkansas while isentropic upglide develops on the 310K
theta surface as far north as far southwestern Missouri.

The result be in an increase in showers from southeastern Kansas
into southwestern Missouri today. There will be a rather sharp
gradient in rain chances with the best chance of showers generally
south of a line from Fort Scott Kansas to Springfield and West
Plains Missouri.

Instability will be limited at best. While a few rumbles of thunder
cannot be ruled out organized thunderstorms are not expected.

The showers will persist from extreme southeastern Kansas into far
southern Missouri tonight but taper off from the north.

The below normal temperatures will persist today with highs
remaining in the 70s across portions of southern Missouri and
extreme southeastern Kansas where clouds and showers will be more
prevalent.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the region from
late week into the this weekend between an upper level ridge over
the Rockies and an upper level trough located over the northeastern
U.S. The upper ridge will expand eastward late this weekend into
early next week allowing temperatures to rise to near normal
levels.

A shortwave trough and associated front are progged to drop
southward into the central U.S. during the middle and later part
of next week bringing a chance of needed rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...An upper level disturbance is
currently push south across the plains early this morning.
Scattered showers are developing across southeastern Kansas and
far western Missouri ahead of this feature. This scattered shower
activity will continue through the morning hours and will affect
all the TAF sites at times.

An area of showers will then push east across Oklahoma into
Arkansas this afternoon as the upper level disturbance pushes to
the east. The bulk of this activity will remain to the south, but
these showers will likely just clip the Joplin and Branson areas.
This activity should then spread out of the area by this evening.

Winds will generally be light and variable through much of the TAF
period. MVFR ceilings and some light fog will be possible tonight
mainly at the KJLN and KBBG TAF sites.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise






000
FXUS63 KSGF 301101
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
601 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

Clouds were on the increase early Wednesday in response to an
active northwesterly upper pattern positioned over the region. A
minor shortwave will track through this flow from the central High
Plains into eastern Oklahoma by tonight while our area becomes
positioned within the entrance region of the upper jet. Meanwhile
the 850-700 MB front will be oriented from western Kansas to
western Arkansas while isentropic upglide develops on the 310K
theta surface as far north as far southwestern Missouri.

The result be in an increase in showers from southeastern Kansas
into southwestern Missouri today. There will be a rather sharp
gradient in rain chances with the best chance of showers generally
south of a line from Fort Scott Kansas to Springfield and West
Plains Missouri.

Instability will be limited at best. While a few rumbles of thunder
cannot be ruled out organized thunderstorms are not expected.

The showers will persist from extreme southeastern Kansas into far
southern Missouri tonight but taper off from the north.

The below normal temperatures will persist today with highs
remaining in the 70s across portions of southern Missouri and
extreme southeastern Kansas where clouds and showers will be more
prevalent.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the region from
late week into the this weekend between an upper level ridge over
the Rockies and an upper level trough located over the northeastern
U.S. The upper ridge will expand eastward late this weekend into
early next week allowing temperatures to rise to near normal
levels.

A shortwave trough and associated front are progged to drop
southward into the central U.S. during the middle and later part
of next week bringing a chance of needed rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...An upper level disturbance is
currently push south across the plains early this morning.
Scattered showers are developing across southeastern Kansas and
far western Missouri ahead of this feature. This scattered shower
activity will continue through the morning hours and will affect
all the TAF sites at times.

An area of showers will then push east across Oklahoma into
Arkansas this afternoon as the upper level disturbance pushes to
the east. The bulk of this activity will remain to the south, but
these showers will likely just clip the Joplin and Branson areas.
This activity should then spread out of the area by this evening.

Winds will generally be light and variable through much of the TAF
period. MVFR ceilings and some light fog will be possible tonight
mainly at the KJLN and KBBG TAF sites.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise






000
FXUS63 KLSX 300808
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
308 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s will be around 5-10 degrees
below average for this time of year, similar to yesterday. Although
a few isolated light rain showers or sprinkles cannot be ruled
out, most areas should remain dry this afternoon. Good radiational
cooling conditions within a relatively dry air mass (Tds in the
50s) should yield another night with lows in the upper 50s to
around 60 degrees.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM: (Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

In the continued absence of any strong signals for either
widespread precip or hot/humid conditions, there has been little
change in thinking since the previous forecast package was issued.
Ongoing northwest flow pattern will maintain cooler than average
temperatures through the end of the week and into the first part
of the weekend. Occasional ill-defined shortwaves moving through
the longwave trough might produce light rain showers or even a few
thunderstorms over the next few days, especially during the
afternoon hours. The upper air pattern begins to change over the
weekend, and temperatures/humidity are expected to warm back
towards seasonable levels next week after the departure of the
longwave trough over the eastern CONUS and the return of southerly
low-level flow over MO/IL.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

Expect river fog to develop like last night that will affect KSUS.
Went ahead added IFR conditions between 10-13Z as current dewpoint
depressions are already close to what they were at this time last
night. Currently have worst conditions in a tempo group with 1/2SM
in fog, though it is possible like last night they could fall
briefly below airport minimums. Otherwise, expect mainly dry and
VFR conditions with light and variable winds.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect dry and VFR conditions with mainly
light variable wind over the next 30 hours.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 300808
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
308 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s will be around 5-10 degrees
below average for this time of year, similar to yesterday. Although
a few isolated light rain showers or sprinkles cannot be ruled
out, most areas should remain dry this afternoon. Good radiational
cooling conditions within a relatively dry air mass (Tds in the
50s) should yield another night with lows in the upper 50s to
around 60 degrees.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM: (Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

In the continued absence of any strong signals for either
widespread precip or hot/humid conditions, there has been little
change in thinking since the previous forecast package was issued.
Ongoing northwest flow pattern will maintain cooler than average
temperatures through the end of the week and into the first part
of the weekend. Occasional ill-defined shortwaves moving through
the longwave trough might produce light rain showers or even a few
thunderstorms over the next few days, especially during the
afternoon hours. The upper air pattern begins to change over the
weekend, and temperatures/humidity are expected to warm back
towards seasonable levels next week after the departure of the
longwave trough over the eastern CONUS and the return of southerly
low-level flow over MO/IL.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

Expect river fog to develop like last night that will affect KSUS.
Went ahead added IFR conditions between 10-13Z as current dewpoint
depressions are already close to what they were at this time last
night. Currently have worst conditions in a tempo group with 1/2SM
in fog, though it is possible like last night they could fall
briefly below airport minimums. Otherwise, expect mainly dry and
VFR conditions with light and variable winds.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect dry and VFR conditions with mainly
light variable wind over the next 30 hours.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 300808
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
308 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s will be around 5-10 degrees
below average for this time of year, similar to yesterday. Although
a few isolated light rain showers or sprinkles cannot be ruled
out, most areas should remain dry this afternoon. Good radiational
cooling conditions within a relatively dry air mass (Tds in the
50s) should yield another night with lows in the upper 50s to
around 60 degrees.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM: (Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

In the continued absence of any strong signals for either
widespread precip or hot/humid conditions, there has been little
change in thinking since the previous forecast package was issued.
Ongoing northwest flow pattern will maintain cooler than average
temperatures through the end of the week and into the first part
of the weekend. Occasional ill-defined shortwaves moving through
the longwave trough might produce light rain showers or even a few
thunderstorms over the next few days, especially during the
afternoon hours. The upper air pattern begins to change over the
weekend, and temperatures/humidity are expected to warm back
towards seasonable levels next week after the departure of the
longwave trough over the eastern CONUS and the return of southerly
low-level flow over MO/IL.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

Expect river fog to develop like last night that will affect KSUS.
Went ahead added IFR conditions between 10-13Z as current dewpoint
depressions are already close to what they were at this time last
night. Currently have worst conditions in a tempo group with 1/2SM
in fog, though it is possible like last night they could fall
briefly below airport minimums. Otherwise, expect mainly dry and
VFR conditions with light and variable winds.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect dry and VFR conditions with mainly
light variable wind over the next 30 hours.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 300808
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
308 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s will be around 5-10 degrees
below average for this time of year, similar to yesterday. Although
a few isolated light rain showers or sprinkles cannot be ruled
out, most areas should remain dry this afternoon. Good radiational
cooling conditions within a relatively dry air mass (Tds in the
50s) should yield another night with lows in the upper 50s to
around 60 degrees.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM: (Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

In the continued absence of any strong signals for either
widespread precip or hot/humid conditions, there has been little
change in thinking since the previous forecast package was issued.
Ongoing northwest flow pattern will maintain cooler than average
temperatures through the end of the week and into the first part
of the weekend. Occasional ill-defined shortwaves moving through
the longwave trough might produce light rain showers or even a few
thunderstorms over the next few days, especially during the
afternoon hours. The upper air pattern begins to change over the
weekend, and temperatures/humidity are expected to warm back
towards seasonable levels next week after the departure of the
longwave trough over the eastern CONUS and the return of southerly
low-level flow over MO/IL.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

Expect river fog to develop like last night that will affect KSUS.
Went ahead added IFR conditions between 10-13Z as current dewpoint
depressions are already close to what they were at this time last
night. Currently have worst conditions in a tempo group with 1/2SM
in fog, though it is possible like last night they could fall
briefly below airport minimums. Otherwise, expect mainly dry and
VFR conditions with light and variable winds.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect dry and VFR conditions with mainly
light variable wind over the next 30 hours.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 300803
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
303 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A few light, widely scattered showers are possible early this
morning through early afternoon as a shortwave trough heads east
southeast across portions of southern KS and southeast Missouri. Any
precipitation amounts should be fairly light in our CWA, and should
be confined to areas southwest of the KC metro. By early to mid
afternoon, a decent push of dry air between 700-500 mb will head
southward, cutting off precipitation chances and eroding cloud cover
from north to south. Temperatures are still expected to rise into
the lower 80s this afternoon, but highs may be reached a bit later
in the day as cloud cover diminishes.

Synoptic models continue to produce spurious convection through the
week as a series of weak shortwave troughs dip southeastward, but a
fairly deep layer of very dry air entrenched across the region
should keep precipitation chances very minimal. Have kept a dry
forecast from this evening through early next week, when the pattern
finally starts to change. Continued northwest flow aloft will keep
temperatures several degrees below normal this week through the
weekend, holding high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s and lows
in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

The upper trough over the Great Lakes will eventually depart early
next week, allowing ridging to shift eastward across the Plains and
southerly flow to return at low levels. This should allow slightly
warmer temperatures and higher low-level moisture to be ushered back
into the region, slightly raising the chance for precipitation with
any systems that traverse the CWA. Currently, long-range models
drape a nearly stationary surface boundary near or slightly north of
the CWA Tuesday into Tuesday night, and allow this feature to sink
southward with time. Have added some lower-end PoPs for the end of
the forecast period Tuesday night through Wednesday, but timing and
position of any storm chances will need to be refined more in future
forecast issuances.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR conditions expected through the period at MCI/MKC. Have continued
brief period of MVFR visibility at STJ as warm water temperatures may
allow for shallow river fog to develop prior to sunrise. A few cu may
persist after sunset with some increase in mid-level clouds during
the morning hours. Winds will generally be northerly, with some
variability in direction.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 300803
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
303 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A few light, widely scattered showers are possible early this
morning through early afternoon as a shortwave trough heads east
southeast across portions of southern KS and southeast Missouri. Any
precipitation amounts should be fairly light in our CWA, and should
be confined to areas southwest of the KC metro. By early to mid
afternoon, a decent push of dry air between 700-500 mb will head
southward, cutting off precipitation chances and eroding cloud cover
from north to south. Temperatures are still expected to rise into
the lower 80s this afternoon, but highs may be reached a bit later
in the day as cloud cover diminishes.

Synoptic models continue to produce spurious convection through the
week as a series of weak shortwave troughs dip southeastward, but a
fairly deep layer of very dry air entrenched across the region
should keep precipitation chances very minimal. Have kept a dry
forecast from this evening through early next week, when the pattern
finally starts to change. Continued northwest flow aloft will keep
temperatures several degrees below normal this week through the
weekend, holding high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s and lows
in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

The upper trough over the Great Lakes will eventually depart early
next week, allowing ridging to shift eastward across the Plains and
southerly flow to return at low levels. This should allow slightly
warmer temperatures and higher low-level moisture to be ushered back
into the region, slightly raising the chance for precipitation with
any systems that traverse the CWA. Currently, long-range models
drape a nearly stationary surface boundary near or slightly north of
the CWA Tuesday into Tuesday night, and allow this feature to sink
southward with time. Have added some lower-end PoPs for the end of
the forecast period Tuesday night through Wednesday, but timing and
position of any storm chances will need to be refined more in future
forecast issuances.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR conditions expected through the period at MCI/MKC. Have continued
brief period of MVFR visibility at STJ as warm water temperatures may
allow for shallow river fog to develop prior to sunrise. A few cu may
persist after sunset with some increase in mid-level clouds during
the morning hours. Winds will generally be northerly, with some
variability in direction.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 300803
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
303 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A few light, widely scattered showers are possible early this
morning through early afternoon as a shortwave trough heads east
southeast across portions of southern KS and southeast Missouri. Any
precipitation amounts should be fairly light in our CWA, and should
be confined to areas southwest of the KC metro. By early to mid
afternoon, a decent push of dry air between 700-500 mb will head
southward, cutting off precipitation chances and eroding cloud cover
from north to south. Temperatures are still expected to rise into
the lower 80s this afternoon, but highs may be reached a bit later
in the day as cloud cover diminishes.

Synoptic models continue to produce spurious convection through the
week as a series of weak shortwave troughs dip southeastward, but a
fairly deep layer of very dry air entrenched across the region
should keep precipitation chances very minimal. Have kept a dry
forecast from this evening through early next week, when the pattern
finally starts to change. Continued northwest flow aloft will keep
temperatures several degrees below normal this week through the
weekend, holding high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s and lows
in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

The upper trough over the Great Lakes will eventually depart early
next week, allowing ridging to shift eastward across the Plains and
southerly flow to return at low levels. This should allow slightly
warmer temperatures and higher low-level moisture to be ushered back
into the region, slightly raising the chance for precipitation with
any systems that traverse the CWA. Currently, long-range models
drape a nearly stationary surface boundary near or slightly north of
the CWA Tuesday into Tuesday night, and allow this feature to sink
southward with time. Have added some lower-end PoPs for the end of
the forecast period Tuesday night through Wednesday, but timing and
position of any storm chances will need to be refined more in future
forecast issuances.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR conditions expected through the period at MCI/MKC. Have continued
brief period of MVFR visibility at STJ as warm water temperatures may
allow for shallow river fog to develop prior to sunrise. A few cu may
persist after sunset with some increase in mid-level clouds during
the morning hours. Winds will generally be northerly, with some
variability in direction.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 300803
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
303 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A few light, widely scattered showers are possible early this
morning through early afternoon as a shortwave trough heads east
southeast across portions of southern KS and southeast Missouri. Any
precipitation amounts should be fairly light in our CWA, and should
be confined to areas southwest of the KC metro. By early to mid
afternoon, a decent push of dry air between 700-500 mb will head
southward, cutting off precipitation chances and eroding cloud cover
from north to south. Temperatures are still expected to rise into
the lower 80s this afternoon, but highs may be reached a bit later
in the day as cloud cover diminishes.

Synoptic models continue to produce spurious convection through the
week as a series of weak shortwave troughs dip southeastward, but a
fairly deep layer of very dry air entrenched across the region
should keep precipitation chances very minimal. Have kept a dry
forecast from this evening through early next week, when the pattern
finally starts to change. Continued northwest flow aloft will keep
temperatures several degrees below normal this week through the
weekend, holding high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s and lows
in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

The upper trough over the Great Lakes will eventually depart early
next week, allowing ridging to shift eastward across the Plains and
southerly flow to return at low levels. This should allow slightly
warmer temperatures and higher low-level moisture to be ushered back
into the region, slightly raising the chance for precipitation with
any systems that traverse the CWA. Currently, long-range models
drape a nearly stationary surface boundary near or slightly north of
the CWA Tuesday into Tuesday night, and allow this feature to sink
southward with time. Have added some lower-end PoPs for the end of
the forecast period Tuesday night through Wednesday, but timing and
position of any storm chances will need to be refined more in future
forecast issuances.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR conditions expected through the period at MCI/MKC. Have continued
brief period of MVFR visibility at STJ as warm water temperatures may
allow for shallow river fog to develop prior to sunrise. A few cu may
persist after sunset with some increase in mid-level clouds during
the morning hours. Winds will generally be northerly, with some
variability in direction.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KSGF 300757
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
257 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

Clouds were on the increase early Wednesday in response to an
active northwesterly upper pattern positioned over the region. A
minor shortwave will track through this flow from the central High
Plains into eastern Oklahoma by tonight while our area becomes
positioned within the entrance region of the upper jet. Meanwhile
the 850-700 MB front will be oriented from western Kansas to
western Arkansas while isentropic upglide develops on the 310K
theta surface as far north as far southwestern Missouri.

The result be in an increase in showers from southeastern Kansas
into southwestern Missouri today. There will be a rather sharp
gradient in rain chances with the best chance of showers generally
south of a line from Fort Scott Kansas to Springfield and West
Plains Missouri.

Instability will be limited at best. While a few rumbles of thunder
cannot be ruled out organized thunderstorms are not expected.

The showers will persist from extreme southeastern Kansas into far
southern Missouri tonight but taper off from the north.

The below normal temperatures will persist today with highs
remaining in the 70s across portions of southern Missouri and
extreme southeastern Kansas where clouds and showers will be more
prevalent.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the region from
late week into the this weekend between an upper level ridge over
the Rockies and an upper level trough located over the northeastern
U.S. The upper ridge will expand eastward late this weekend into
early next week allowing temperatures to rise to near normal
levels.

A shortwave trough and associated front are progged to drop
southward into the central U.S. during the middle and later part
of next week bringing a chance of needed rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

An upper level disturbance embedded within the northwest flow
aloft will track out of the Rockies and to our southwest bringing
quite a bit of rain to parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. Our area will
be on the northeastern section of the rain band, but our lower
levels will remain dry with surface high pressure in place. Mid
level cloudiness will increase over the next 24 hour period and
could see some light rain or sprinkles develop by morning. Our
best chance for anything will be at JLN which will be closer to
the heavier rain band to the southwest. Generally expecting VFR
conditions through the period, but may see some MVFR at JLN by
late Wednesday afternoon into the evening.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 300757
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
257 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

Clouds were on the increase early Wednesday in response to an
active northwesterly upper pattern positioned over the region. A
minor shortwave will track through this flow from the central High
Plains into eastern Oklahoma by tonight while our area becomes
positioned within the entrance region of the upper jet. Meanwhile
the 850-700 MB front will be oriented from western Kansas to
western Arkansas while isentropic upglide develops on the 310K
theta surface as far north as far southwestern Missouri.

The result be in an increase in showers from southeastern Kansas
into southwestern Missouri today. There will be a rather sharp
gradient in rain chances with the best chance of showers generally
south of a line from Fort Scott Kansas to Springfield and West
Plains Missouri.

Instability will be limited at best. While a few rumbles of thunder
cannot be ruled out organized thunderstorms are not expected.

The showers will persist from extreme southeastern Kansas into far
southern Missouri tonight but taper off from the north.

The below normal temperatures will persist today with highs
remaining in the 70s across portions of southern Missouri and
extreme southeastern Kansas where clouds and showers will be more
prevalent.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the region from
late week into the this weekend between an upper level ridge over
the Rockies and an upper level trough located over the northeastern
U.S. The upper ridge will expand eastward late this weekend into
early next week allowing temperatures to rise to near normal
levels.

A shortwave trough and associated front are progged to drop
southward into the central U.S. during the middle and later part
of next week bringing a chance of needed rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

An upper level disturbance embedded within the northwest flow
aloft will track out of the Rockies and to our southwest bringing
quite a bit of rain to parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. Our area will
be on the northeastern section of the rain band, but our lower
levels will remain dry with surface high pressure in place. Mid
level cloudiness will increase over the next 24 hour period and
could see some light rain or sprinkles develop by morning. Our
best chance for anything will be at JLN which will be closer to
the heavier rain band to the southwest. Generally expecting VFR
conditions through the period, but may see some MVFR at JLN by
late Wednesday afternoon into the evening.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KEAX 300511
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1211 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 412 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

The pleasant weather of yesterday and today will continue for the
rest of the work-week. A large upper trough covering the eastern U.S
with its abnormally cool and dry weather will maintain control on
our weather while keeping the upper level ridge over the western U.S.
This is an extremely similar pattern to what we saw in mid-July.
Models show little change in the 925mb thru 850mb thermal pattern
which bodes well for going with persistence with a slight upward
tick as the airmass slowly moderates.

Models not performing too well wrt qpf as they`ve been generating
spurious light showers which have yet to materialize. Only the NAM
picked upon the isentropically driven altocu and light showers over
eastern KS earlier today. Satellite imagery does show a moderately
strong shortwave rotating into CO which the circulation around the
deep upper low southeast Canada will turn southeast tonight. The
expected convective complex is expected to pass southeast of the CWA
with only very low PoPs painted over the far southwestern counties.
Should see diurnal cumulus again Wednesday and Thursday afternoon.
Temperatures will remain pleasant...especially at night...with low
humidity levels. Went with persistence +1 as the airmass begins to
moderate.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Friday:

The upper level pattern will remain unchanged from the short-term
period with upper level troughing across the eastern CONUS and upper
level ridging over the west. The area will remain under cool
northwest flow and as such, temperatures will continue to remain
below normal. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s.

Saturday - Sunday:

This will be a transition period in the persistent pattern
highlighted above. There are some discrepancies between models in
this period as the GFS and GEM are showing stronger troughing from
the Great Lakes region to the Ohio River Valley. This would keep
continued northwest flow across the area whereas the EC relaxes the
northwest flow aloft through this period as the eastern trough
weakens. Opted for the slightly cooler ALLBLEND during this period
to account for for the persistent troughing highlighted by the GFS
and GEM. Regardless we should experience a minor warmup through this
period with highs rising into the mid 80s area-wide by Sunday.
Conditions should remain dry through the weekend.

Monday - Tuesday:

Temperatures should return to near normal by the beginning of next
week as the western ridge begins to build eastward and starts to
impinge on the local area. Temperatures will rise into the mid 80s
to near 90. There is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms
by Tuesday but extended range models are hinting that an approaching
cold front may hang north of the area keeping conditions dry
through out the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR conditions expected through the period at MCI/MKC. Have continued
brief period of MVFR visibility at STJ as warm water temperatures may
allow for shallow river fog to develop prior to sunrise. A few cu may
persist after sunset with some increase in mid-level clouds during
the morning hours. Winds will generally be northerly, with some
variability in direction.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...Blair






000
FXUS63 KEAX 300511
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1211 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 412 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

The pleasant weather of yesterday and today will continue for the
rest of the work-week. A large upper trough covering the eastern U.S
with its abnormally cool and dry weather will maintain control on
our weather while keeping the upper level ridge over the western U.S.
This is an extremely similar pattern to what we saw in mid-July.
Models show little change in the 925mb thru 850mb thermal pattern
which bodes well for going with persistence with a slight upward
tick as the airmass slowly moderates.

Models not performing too well wrt qpf as they`ve been generating
spurious light showers which have yet to materialize. Only the NAM
picked upon the isentropically driven altocu and light showers over
eastern KS earlier today. Satellite imagery does show a moderately
strong shortwave rotating into CO which the circulation around the
deep upper low southeast Canada will turn southeast tonight. The
expected convective complex is expected to pass southeast of the CWA
with only very low PoPs painted over the far southwestern counties.
Should see diurnal cumulus again Wednesday and Thursday afternoon.
Temperatures will remain pleasant...especially at night...with low
humidity levels. Went with persistence +1 as the airmass begins to
moderate.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Friday:

The upper level pattern will remain unchanged from the short-term
period with upper level troughing across the eastern CONUS and upper
level ridging over the west. The area will remain under cool
northwest flow and as such, temperatures will continue to remain
below normal. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s.

Saturday - Sunday:

This will be a transition period in the persistent pattern
highlighted above. There are some discrepancies between models in
this period as the GFS and GEM are showing stronger troughing from
the Great Lakes region to the Ohio River Valley. This would keep
continued northwest flow across the area whereas the EC relaxes the
northwest flow aloft through this period as the eastern trough
weakens. Opted for the slightly cooler ALLBLEND during this period
to account for for the persistent troughing highlighted by the GFS
and GEM. Regardless we should experience a minor warmup through this
period with highs rising into the mid 80s area-wide by Sunday.
Conditions should remain dry through the weekend.

Monday - Tuesday:

Temperatures should return to near normal by the beginning of next
week as the western ridge begins to build eastward and starts to
impinge on the local area. Temperatures will rise into the mid 80s
to near 90. There is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms
by Tuesday but extended range models are hinting that an approaching
cold front may hang north of the area keeping conditions dry
through out the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR conditions expected through the period at MCI/MKC. Have continued
brief period of MVFR visibility at STJ as warm water temperatures may
allow for shallow river fog to develop prior to sunrise. A few cu may
persist after sunset with some increase in mid-level clouds during
the morning hours. Winds will generally be northerly, with some
variability in direction.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KLSX 300444
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1144 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

Hi pressure continues to dominate our weather.  Expect diurnal
cumulus field to dissipate quickly this evening and the sky should
remain mostly clear this evening.  With light wind and low relative
humidity, expect excellent radiational cooling.  MOS temps look
agreeable so have followed closely.


Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

Unseasonably amplified trough across the eastern two-thirds of the
CONUS will continue to bring cool...and for the most part dry weather
through the next seven days. Timing subtle/nearly indistinguishable
ripples embedded within northwest flow aloft is very difficult but
cannot rule out some isolated showers/weak storms diurnally driven
through Saturday. Best "chance" may come on Friday/Saturday due to
slightly better instability as mid/upper level
heights/temperatures fall.

Longwave pattern will finally begin to breakdown late this weekend
and into early next week as combination of tropical energy in the
Atlantic and sharp trough crossing south of Hudson Bay act to
significantly dampen Bermuda high. Upper-level heights and
low-level temperatures will rise across the mid-Mississippi
Valley with a corresponding climb up to more seasonal temperatures/
humidity levels.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

Expect river fog to develop like last night that will affect KSUS.
Went ahead added IFR conditions between 10-13Z as current dewpoint
depressions are already close to what they were at this time last
night. Currently have worst conditions in a tempo group with 1/2SM
in fog, though it is possible like last night they could fall
briefly below airport minimums. Otherwise, expect mainly dry and
VFR conditions with light and variable winds.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect dry and VFR conditions with mainly
light variable wind over the next 30 hours.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 300444
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1144 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

Hi pressure continues to dominate our weather.  Expect diurnal
cumulus field to dissipate quickly this evening and the sky should
remain mostly clear this evening.  With light wind and low relative
humidity, expect excellent radiational cooling.  MOS temps look
agreeable so have followed closely.


Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

Unseasonably amplified trough across the eastern two-thirds of the
CONUS will continue to bring cool...and for the most part dry weather
through the next seven days. Timing subtle/nearly indistinguishable
ripples embedded within northwest flow aloft is very difficult but
cannot rule out some isolated showers/weak storms diurnally driven
through Saturday. Best "chance" may come on Friday/Saturday due to
slightly better instability as mid/upper level
heights/temperatures fall.

Longwave pattern will finally begin to breakdown late this weekend
and into early next week as combination of tropical energy in the
Atlantic and sharp trough crossing south of Hudson Bay act to
significantly dampen Bermuda high. Upper-level heights and
low-level temperatures will rise across the mid-Mississippi
Valley with a corresponding climb up to more seasonal temperatures/
humidity levels.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

Expect river fog to develop like last night that will affect KSUS.
Went ahead added IFR conditions between 10-13Z as current dewpoint
depressions are already close to what they were at this time last
night. Currently have worst conditions in a tempo group with 1/2SM
in fog, though it is possible like last night they could fall
briefly below airport minimums. Otherwise, expect mainly dry and
VFR conditions with light and variable winds.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect dry and VFR conditions with mainly
light variable wind over the next 30 hours.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 300444
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1144 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

Hi pressure continues to dominate our weather.  Expect diurnal
cumulus field to dissipate quickly this evening and the sky should
remain mostly clear this evening.  With light wind and low relative
humidity, expect excellent radiational cooling.  MOS temps look
agreeable so have followed closely.


Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

Unseasonably amplified trough across the eastern two-thirds of the
CONUS will continue to bring cool...and for the most part dry weather
through the next seven days. Timing subtle/nearly indistinguishable
ripples embedded within northwest flow aloft is very difficult but
cannot rule out some isolated showers/weak storms diurnally driven
through Saturday. Best "chance" may come on Friday/Saturday due to
slightly better instability as mid/upper level
heights/temperatures fall.

Longwave pattern will finally begin to breakdown late this weekend
and into early next week as combination of tropical energy in the
Atlantic and sharp trough crossing south of Hudson Bay act to
significantly dampen Bermuda high. Upper-level heights and
low-level temperatures will rise across the mid-Mississippi
Valley with a corresponding climb up to more seasonal temperatures/
humidity levels.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

Expect river fog to develop like last night that will affect KSUS.
Went ahead added IFR conditions between 10-13Z as current dewpoint
depressions are already close to what they were at this time last
night. Currently have worst conditions in a tempo group with 1/2SM
in fog, though it is possible like last night they could fall
briefly below airport minimums. Otherwise, expect mainly dry and
VFR conditions with light and variable winds.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect dry and VFR conditions with mainly
light variable wind over the next 30 hours.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 300444
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1144 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

Hi pressure continues to dominate our weather.  Expect diurnal
cumulus field to dissipate quickly this evening and the sky should
remain mostly clear this evening.  With light wind and low relative
humidity, expect excellent radiational cooling.  MOS temps look
agreeable so have followed closely.


Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

Unseasonably amplified trough across the eastern two-thirds of the
CONUS will continue to bring cool...and for the most part dry weather
through the next seven days. Timing subtle/nearly indistinguishable
ripples embedded within northwest flow aloft is very difficult but
cannot rule out some isolated showers/weak storms diurnally driven
through Saturday. Best "chance" may come on Friday/Saturday due to
slightly better instability as mid/upper level
heights/temperatures fall.

Longwave pattern will finally begin to breakdown late this weekend
and into early next week as combination of tropical energy in the
Atlantic and sharp trough crossing south of Hudson Bay act to
significantly dampen Bermuda high. Upper-level heights and
low-level temperatures will rise across the mid-Mississippi
Valley with a corresponding climb up to more seasonal temperatures/
humidity levels.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

Expect river fog to develop like last night that will affect KSUS.
Went ahead added IFR conditions between 10-13Z as current dewpoint
depressions are already close to what they were at this time last
night. Currently have worst conditions in a tempo group with 1/2SM
in fog, though it is possible like last night they could fall
briefly below airport minimums. Otherwise, expect mainly dry and
VFR conditions with light and variable winds.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect dry and VFR conditions with mainly
light variable wind over the next 30 hours.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 300431
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1131 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)

Another beautiful day over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures ranged from the upper 70s to the
lower 80s.

A few sprinkles were observed in southeast Kansas, however, this
activity had dissipated early this afternoon.

For tonight, cooler than normal temperatures are expected with
lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s. The warmer readings will
occur out toward Joplin and Pittsburg, as cloud cover increases
from the west.

As we approach the Wednesday morning hours, a band of rain will
likely begin to affect locations southwest of a line from Girard
Kansas to Branson Missouri. While we do have lower precipitation
chanes as far north as Springfield and Lake of the Ozarks, we are
much more confident in rain affecting areas closer to the Oklahoma
and Arkansas border.

Temperatures tomorrow will once again remain cool for the time of
year, with highs only in the low 70s near Neosho and Pineville, to
the lower 80s up toward central Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)

Rain chances will continue across far southern Missouri heading
into Wednesday night and Thursday.

A gradual warm up along with dry weather is expected from Thursday
into early next week. Northwest flow will persist across the
nation`s mid section with small height rises with time. Eventually
afternoon highs will return to near normal, with readings in the
middle and upper 80s by Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.

Models suggest that better rain chances will occur toward the
middle and end of next week as a storm system and frontal boundary
approaches from the northwest. However, this is beyond our 7 day
forecast period.

Have a great afternoon !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

An upper level disturbance embedded within the northwest flow
aloft will track out of the Rockies and to our southwest bringing
quite a bit of rain to parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. Our area will
be on the northeastern section of the rain band, but our lower
levels will remain dry with surfae high pressure in place. Mid
level cloudiness will increase over the next 24 hour period and
could see some light rain or sprinkles develop by morning. Our
best chance for anything will be at JLN which will be closer to
the heavier rain band to the southwest. Generally expecting VFR
conditions through the period, but may see some MVFR at JLN by
late Wednesday afternoon into the evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 300431
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1131 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)

Another beautiful day over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures ranged from the upper 70s to the
lower 80s.

A few sprinkles were observed in southeast Kansas, however, this
activity had dissipated early this afternoon.

For tonight, cooler than normal temperatures are expected with
lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s. The warmer readings will
occur out toward Joplin and Pittsburg, as cloud cover increases
from the west.

As we approach the Wednesday morning hours, a band of rain will
likely begin to affect locations southwest of a line from Girard
Kansas to Branson Missouri. While we do have lower precipitation
chanes as far north as Springfield and Lake of the Ozarks, we are
much more confident in rain affecting areas closer to the Oklahoma
and Arkansas border.

Temperatures tomorrow will once again remain cool for the time of
year, with highs only in the low 70s near Neosho and Pineville, to
the lower 80s up toward central Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)

Rain chances will continue across far southern Missouri heading
into Wednesday night and Thursday.

A gradual warm up along with dry weather is expected from Thursday
into early next week. Northwest flow will persist across the
nation`s mid section with small height rises with time. Eventually
afternoon highs will return to near normal, with readings in the
middle and upper 80s by Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.

Models suggest that better rain chances will occur toward the
middle and end of next week as a storm system and frontal boundary
approaches from the northwest. However, this is beyond our 7 day
forecast period.

Have a great afternoon !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

An upper level disturbance embedded within the northwest flow
aloft will track out of the Rockies and to our southwest bringing
quite a bit of rain to parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. Our area will
be on the northeastern section of the rain band, but our lower
levels will remain dry with surfae high pressure in place. Mid
level cloudiness will increase over the next 24 hour period and
could see some light rain or sprinkles develop by morning. Our
best chance for anything will be at JLN which will be closer to
the heavier rain band to the southwest. Generally expecting VFR
conditions through the period, but may see some MVFR at JLN by
late Wednesday afternoon into the evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 300431
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1131 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)

Another beautiful day over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures ranged from the upper 70s to the
lower 80s.

A few sprinkles were observed in southeast Kansas, however, this
activity had dissipated early this afternoon.

For tonight, cooler than normal temperatures are expected with
lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s. The warmer readings will
occur out toward Joplin and Pittsburg, as cloud cover increases
from the west.

As we approach the Wednesday morning hours, a band of rain will
likely begin to affect locations southwest of a line from Girard
Kansas to Branson Missouri. While we do have lower precipitation
chanes as far north as Springfield and Lake of the Ozarks, we are
much more confident in rain affecting areas closer to the Oklahoma
and Arkansas border.

Temperatures tomorrow will once again remain cool for the time of
year, with highs only in the low 70s near Neosho and Pineville, to
the lower 80s up toward central Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)

Rain chances will continue across far southern Missouri heading
into Wednesday night and Thursday.

A gradual warm up along with dry weather is expected from Thursday
into early next week. Northwest flow will persist across the
nation`s mid section with small height rises with time. Eventually
afternoon highs will return to near normal, with readings in the
middle and upper 80s by Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.

Models suggest that better rain chances will occur toward the
middle and end of next week as a storm system and frontal boundary
approaches from the northwest. However, this is beyond our 7 day
forecast period.

Have a great afternoon !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

An upper level disturbance embedded within the northwest flow
aloft will track out of the Rockies and to our southwest bringing
quite a bit of rain to parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. Our area will
be on the northeastern section of the rain band, but our lower
levels will remain dry with surfae high pressure in place. Mid
level cloudiness will increase over the next 24 hour period and
could see some light rain or sprinkles develop by morning. Our
best chance for anything will be at JLN which will be closer to
the heavier rain band to the southwest. Generally expecting VFR
conditions through the period, but may see some MVFR at JLN by
late Wednesday afternoon into the evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 300431
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1131 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)

Another beautiful day over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures ranged from the upper 70s to the
lower 80s.

A few sprinkles were observed in southeast Kansas, however, this
activity had dissipated early this afternoon.

For tonight, cooler than normal temperatures are expected with
lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s. The warmer readings will
occur out toward Joplin and Pittsburg, as cloud cover increases
from the west.

As we approach the Wednesday morning hours, a band of rain will
likely begin to affect locations southwest of a line from Girard
Kansas to Branson Missouri. While we do have lower precipitation
chanes as far north as Springfield and Lake of the Ozarks, we are
much more confident in rain affecting areas closer to the Oklahoma
and Arkansas border.

Temperatures tomorrow will once again remain cool for the time of
year, with highs only in the low 70s near Neosho and Pineville, to
the lower 80s up toward central Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)

Rain chances will continue across far southern Missouri heading
into Wednesday night and Thursday.

A gradual warm up along with dry weather is expected from Thursday
into early next week. Northwest flow will persist across the
nation`s mid section with small height rises with time. Eventually
afternoon highs will return to near normal, with readings in the
middle and upper 80s by Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.

Models suggest that better rain chances will occur toward the
middle and end of next week as a storm system and frontal boundary
approaches from the northwest. However, this is beyond our 7 day
forecast period.

Have a great afternoon !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

An upper level disturbance embedded within the northwest flow
aloft will track out of the Rockies and to our southwest bringing
quite a bit of rain to parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. Our area will
be on the northeastern section of the rain band, but our lower
levels will remain dry with surfae high pressure in place. Mid
level cloudiness will increase over the next 24 hour period and
could see some light rain or sprinkles develop by morning. Our
best chance for anything will be at JLN which will be closer to
the heavier rain band to the southwest. Generally expecting VFR
conditions through the period, but may see some MVFR at JLN by
late Wednesday afternoon into the evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KLSX 292346
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
646 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

Hi pressure continues to dominate our weather.  Expect diurnal
cumulus field to dissipate quickly this evening and the sky should
remain mostly clear this evening.  With light wind and low relative
humidity, expect excellent radiational cooling.  MOS temps look
agreeable so have followed closely.


Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

Unseasonably amplified trough across the eastern two-thirds of the
CONUS will continue to bring cool...and for the most part dry weather
through the next seven days. Timing subtle/nearly indistinguishable
ripples embedded within northwest flow aloft is very difficult but
cannot rule out some isolated showers/weak storms diurnally driven
through Saturday. Best "chance" may come on Friday/Saturday due to
slightly better instability as mid/upper level
heights/temperatures fall.

Longwave pattern will finally begin to breakdown late this weekend
and into early next week as combination of tropical energy in the
Atlantic and sharp trough crossing south of Hudson Bay act to
significantly dampen Bermuda high. Upper-level heights and
low-level temperatures will rise across the mid-Mississippi
Valley with a corresponding climb up to more seasonal temperatures/
humidity levels.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

Expect dry weather the next 24 hours with mainly VFR conditions
except for some river fog between 09-13Z. Winds will be mainly
light and variable.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect dry and VFR conditions with mainly
light and variable winds.

Britt

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     63  84  64  85 /   5  10  10  20
Quincy          58  80  59  81 /   5  10  10  10
Columbia        60  82  60  84 /   5  10   5  10
Jefferson City  60  81  61  84 /   5  10   5  10
Salem           57  82  59  83 /   5  10  10  20
Farmington      57  79  58  82 /   5  10  10  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 292346
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
646 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

Hi pressure continues to dominate our weather.  Expect diurnal
cumulus field to dissipate quickly this evening and the sky should
remain mostly clear this evening.  With light wind and low relative
humidity, expect excellent radiational cooling.  MOS temps look
agreeable so have followed closely.


Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

Unseasonably amplified trough across the eastern two-thirds of the
CONUS will continue to bring cool...and for the most part dry weather
through the next seven days. Timing subtle/nearly indistinguishable
ripples embedded within northwest flow aloft is very difficult but
cannot rule out some isolated showers/weak storms diurnally driven
through Saturday. Best "chance" may come on Friday/Saturday due to
slightly better instability as mid/upper level
heights/temperatures fall.

Longwave pattern will finally begin to breakdown late this weekend
and into early next week as combination of tropical energy in the
Atlantic and sharp trough crossing south of Hudson Bay act to
significantly dampen Bermuda high. Upper-level heights and
low-level temperatures will rise across the mid-Mississippi
Valley with a corresponding climb up to more seasonal temperatures/
humidity levels.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

Expect dry weather the next 24 hours with mainly VFR conditions
except for some river fog between 09-13Z. Winds will be mainly
light and variable.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect dry and VFR conditions with mainly
light and variable winds.

Britt

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     63  84  64  85 /   5  10  10  20
Quincy          58  80  59  81 /   5  10  10  10
Columbia        60  82  60  84 /   5  10   5  10
Jefferson City  60  81  61  84 /   5  10   5  10
Salem           57  82  59  83 /   5  10  10  20
Farmington      57  79  58  82 /   5  10  10  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 292346
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
646 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

Hi pressure continues to dominate our weather.  Expect diurnal
cumulus field to dissipate quickly this evening and the sky should
remain mostly clear this evening.  With light wind and low relative
humidity, expect excellent radiational cooling.  MOS temps look
agreeable so have followed closely.


Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

Unseasonably amplified trough across the eastern two-thirds of the
CONUS will continue to bring cool...and for the most part dry weather
through the next seven days. Timing subtle/nearly indistinguishable
ripples embedded within northwest flow aloft is very difficult but
cannot rule out some isolated showers/weak storms diurnally driven
through Saturday. Best "chance" may come on Friday/Saturday due to
slightly better instability as mid/upper level
heights/temperatures fall.

Longwave pattern will finally begin to breakdown late this weekend
and into early next week as combination of tropical energy in the
Atlantic and sharp trough crossing south of Hudson Bay act to
significantly dampen Bermuda high. Upper-level heights and
low-level temperatures will rise across the mid-Mississippi
Valley with a corresponding climb up to more seasonal temperatures/
humidity levels.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

Expect dry weather the next 24 hours with mainly VFR conditions
except for some river fog between 09-13Z. Winds will be mainly
light and variable.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect dry and VFR conditions with mainly
light and variable winds.

Britt

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     63  84  64  85 /   5  10  10  20
Quincy          58  80  59  81 /   5  10  10  10
Columbia        60  82  60  84 /   5  10   5  10
Jefferson City  60  81  61  84 /   5  10   5  10
Salem           57  82  59  83 /   5  10  10  20
Farmington      57  79  58  82 /   5  10  10  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 292346
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
646 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

Hi pressure continues to dominate our weather.  Expect diurnal
cumulus field to dissipate quickly this evening and the sky should
remain mostly clear this evening.  With light wind and low relative
humidity, expect excellent radiational cooling.  MOS temps look
agreeable so have followed closely.


Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

Unseasonably amplified trough across the eastern two-thirds of the
CONUS will continue to bring cool...and for the most part dry weather
through the next seven days. Timing subtle/nearly indistinguishable
ripples embedded within northwest flow aloft is very difficult but
cannot rule out some isolated showers/weak storms diurnally driven
through Saturday. Best "chance" may come on Friday/Saturday due to
slightly better instability as mid/upper level
heights/temperatures fall.

Longwave pattern will finally begin to breakdown late this weekend
and into early next week as combination of tropical energy in the
Atlantic and sharp trough crossing south of Hudson Bay act to
significantly dampen Bermuda high. Upper-level heights and
low-level temperatures will rise across the mid-Mississippi
Valley with a corresponding climb up to more seasonal temperatures/
humidity levels.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

Expect dry weather the next 24 hours with mainly VFR conditions
except for some river fog between 09-13Z. Winds will be mainly
light and variable.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect dry and VFR conditions with mainly
light and variable winds.

Britt

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     63  84  64  85 /   5  10  10  20
Quincy          58  80  59  81 /   5  10  10  10
Columbia        60  82  60  84 /   5  10   5  10
Jefferson City  60  81  61  84 /   5  10   5  10
Salem           57  82  59  83 /   5  10  10  20
Farmington      57  79  58  82 /   5  10  10  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 292330
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
630 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 412 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

The pleasant weather of yesterday and today will continue for the
rest of the work-week. A large upper trough covering the eastern U.S
with its abnormally cool and dry weather will maintain control on
our weather while keeping the upper level ridge over the western U.S.
This is an extremely similar pattern to what we saw in mid-July.
Models show little change in the 925mb thru 850mb thermal pattern
which bodes well for going with persistence with a slight upward
tick as the airmass slowly moderates.

Models not performing too well wrt qpf as they`ve been generating
spurious light showers which have yet to materialize. Only the NAM
picked upon the isentropically driven altocu and light showers over
eastern KS earlier today. Satellite imagery does show a moderately
strong shortwave rotating into CO which the circulation around the
deep upper low southeast Canada will turn southeast tonight. The
expected convective complex is expected to pass southeast of the CWA
with only very low PoPs painted over the far southwestern counties.
Should see diurnal cumulus again Wednesday and Thursday afternoon.
Temperatures will remain pleasant...especially at night...with low
humidity levels. Went with persistence +1 as the airmass begins to
moderate.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Friday:

The upper level pattern will remain unchanged from the short-term
period with upper level troughing across the eastern CONUS and upper
level ridging over the west. The area will remain under cool
northwest flow and as such, temperatures will continue to remain
below normal. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s.

Saturday - Sunday:

This will be a transition period in the persistent pattern
highlighted above. There are some discrepancies between models in
this period as the GFS and GEM are showing stronger troughing from
the Great Lakes region to the Ohio River Valley. This would keep
continued northwest flow across the area whereas the EC relaxes the
northwest flow aloft through this period as the eastern trough
weakens. Opted for the slightly cooler ALLBLEND during this period
to account for for the persistent troughing highlighted by the GFS
and GEM. Regardless we should experience a minor warmup through this
period with highs rising into the mid 80s area-wide by Sunday.
Conditions should remain dry through the weekend.

Monday - Tuesday:

Temperatures should return to near normal by the beginning of next
week as the western ridge begins to build eastward and starts to
impinge on the local area. Temperatures will rise into the mid 80s
to near 90. There is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms
by Tuesday but extended range models are hinting that an approaching
cold front may hang north of the area keeping conditions dry
through out the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR conditions expected through the period at MCI/MKC. Have continued
brief period of MVFR visibility at STJ as warm water temperatures may
allow for shallow river fog to develop prior to sunrise. A few cu may
persist after sunset with some increase in mid-level clouds during
the morning hours. Winds will generally be northerly, with some
variability in direction.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 292330
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
630 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 412 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

The pleasant weather of yesterday and today will continue for the
rest of the work-week. A large upper trough covering the eastern U.S
with its abnormally cool and dry weather will maintain control on
our weather while keeping the upper level ridge over the western U.S.
This is an extremely similar pattern to what we saw in mid-July.
Models show little change in the 925mb thru 850mb thermal pattern
which bodes well for going with persistence with a slight upward
tick as the airmass slowly moderates.

Models not performing too well wrt qpf as they`ve been generating
spurious light showers which have yet to materialize. Only the NAM
picked upon the isentropically driven altocu and light showers over
eastern KS earlier today. Satellite imagery does show a moderately
strong shortwave rotating into CO which the circulation around the
deep upper low southeast Canada will turn southeast tonight. The
expected convective complex is expected to pass southeast of the CWA
with only very low PoPs painted over the far southwestern counties.
Should see diurnal cumulus again Wednesday and Thursday afternoon.
Temperatures will remain pleasant...especially at night...with low
humidity levels. Went with persistence +1 as the airmass begins to
moderate.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Friday:

The upper level pattern will remain unchanged from the short-term
period with upper level troughing across the eastern CONUS and upper
level ridging over the west. The area will remain under cool
northwest flow and as such, temperatures will continue to remain
below normal. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s.

Saturday - Sunday:

This will be a transition period in the persistent pattern
highlighted above. There are some discrepancies between models in
this period as the GFS and GEM are showing stronger troughing from
the Great Lakes region to the Ohio River Valley. This would keep
continued northwest flow across the area whereas the EC relaxes the
northwest flow aloft through this period as the eastern trough
weakens. Opted for the slightly cooler ALLBLEND during this period
to account for for the persistent troughing highlighted by the GFS
and GEM. Regardless we should experience a minor warmup through this
period with highs rising into the mid 80s area-wide by Sunday.
Conditions should remain dry through the weekend.

Monday - Tuesday:

Temperatures should return to near normal by the beginning of next
week as the western ridge begins to build eastward and starts to
impinge on the local area. Temperatures will rise into the mid 80s
to near 90. There is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms
by Tuesday but extended range models are hinting that an approaching
cold front may hang north of the area keeping conditions dry
through out the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR conditions expected through the period at MCI/MKC. Have continued
brief period of MVFR visibility at STJ as warm water temperatures may
allow for shallow river fog to develop prior to sunrise. A few cu may
persist after sunset with some increase in mid-level clouds during
the morning hours. Winds will generally be northerly, with some
variability in direction.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...Blair






000
FXUS63 KSGF 292246
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
546 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)

Another beautiful day over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures ranged from the upper 70s to the
lower 80s.

A few sprinkles were observed in southeast Kansas, however, this
activity had dissipated early this afternoon.

For tonight, cooler than normal temperatures are expected with
lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s. The warmer readings will
occur out toward Joplin and Pittsburg, as cloud cover increases
from the west.

As we approach the Wednesday morning hours, a band of rain will
likely begin to affect locations southwest of a line from Girard
Kansas to Branson Missouri. While we do have lower precipitation
chanes as far north as Springfield and Lake of the Ozarks, we are
much more confident in rain affecting areas closer to the Oklahoma
and Arkansas border.

Temperatures tomorrow will once again remain cool for the time of
year, with highs only in the low 70s near Neosho and Pineville, to
the lower 80s up toward central Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)

Rain chances will continue across far southern Missouri heading
into Wednesday night and Thursday.

A gradual warm up along with dry weather is expected from Thursday
into early next week. Northwest flow will persist across the
nation`s mid section with small height rises with time. Eventually
afternoon highs will return to near normal, with readings in the
middle and upper 80s by Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.

Models suggest that better rain chances will occur toward the
middle and end of next week as a storm system and frontal boundary
approaches from the northwest. However, this is beyond our 7 day
forecast period.

Have a great afternoon !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 544 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

An upper level disturbance will push into the area late tonight
through Wednesday with an area of mid level cloudiness developing
at the 3 TAF sites. The best chance of rain will be at the JLN
terminal with lesser chances at SGF/BBG. With VFR bases to the
cloud cover, not expecting rain to be very heavy.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Lindenberg







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