[top]
000
FXUS62 KRAH 210609
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
155 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN NC TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE COAST TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM SUNDAY....
THERE HAS BEEN A STEADY INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM EAST TO WEST
ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH DEWPOINTS
CURRENTLY RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE WEST TO MID 60S ACROSS
THE EAST. A SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE NC/VA BORDER HAS
SLOWLY DRIFTED INLAND THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN SOME MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS...
WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...THESE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE LOW. THEREFORE...WILL TREND POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
THE WEST TO CHANCE ACROSS THE EAST (WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE
RESIDES). THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN WARMER
OVERNIGHT LOWS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
WEST TO LOWER 60S FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. -KRR
THE NORTHERN SURFACE LOW WEAKENS WITH BROAD WEAK TROFFING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FOR TS ALBERTO KEEPS THE
SYSTEM OFF THE COAST WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS CONFINED TO COASTAL
AREAS. FORCING IS HARD TO FIND...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE. WITH THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND HIGHS DAMPENED
BY CLOUDINESS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY TOPPING OUT AROUND 50 PERCENT IN THE FAR EAST. HIGHS WILL
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MOIST AIRMASS AND GENERAL
TROUGHINESS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID
LEVEL TROF... MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
MINS AGAIN REMAIN MILD...IN THE LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...
MODELS GENERALLY ARE COMING INTO EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING
OF THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER IN BOTH
DEPTH (STRONGEST SOLUTION)... AND TIMING (SLOWEST SOLUTION) WITH THE
SYSTEMS DEPARTURE LATE WED AND WED NIGHT. WE WILL GENERALLY KEEP OUR
CURRENT FORECAST INTACT WITH THE HIGHEST POP (LIKELY) BEGINNING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST... AND SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE REST
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF NC LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST REPRESENTATIVE
OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTION ALONG WITH A WHOLE HOST OF THE EC
ENSEMBLES. THIS WOULD BRING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THEN PUSHING THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT SLOWLY EAST
INTO THE CENTER OF THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE... WE WILL MAINTAIN RATHER HIGH POPS WED AND WED EVENING.
QPF LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.50 TO LOCALLY 1.00 INCH STORM
AREAL STORM TOTAL AVERAGE TUE-WED NIGHT.
THE CLOUDINESS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO
LOWER MAXES IN THE WEST TUE AFTERNOON AND OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT READINGS A CATEGORY OR TWO LOWER THAN THE GFS MOS IN THESE
SPECIFIC AREAS BOTH DAYS. HIGHS 80-88 NW TO S TUESDAY... THEN 80-85
WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...
A GENERAL TREND TOWARD RISING HEIGHTS WITH THE CORE OF THE HEIGHT
RISES EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A DRYING AND WARMING TREND. WE WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SOME MODELS INDICATE A
LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY (RESIDUAL COLD FRONT) OVER CENTRAL OR
EASTERN NC INTO FRIDAY. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD BEGIN TO LIMIT
STORM COVERAGE. THEN... A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME COOLING
STORMS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES IF IT IS ABLE TO SLIP DOWN THIS
FAR SAT-SUN. OTHERWISE... MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY BY SAT-SUN WITH
LOWS IN THE 64-69 RANGE AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM MONDAY...
STRATUS CONTINUES TO PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING AS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND FROM THE COAST. CEILINGS
HAVE LOWERED TO IFR LEVELS AROUND KRWI...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT KFAY
AND RWI...AND STRATUS JUST NOW REACHING KGSO/KINT. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE...AND CEILINGS MAY EVENTUALLY APPROACH IFR
LEVELS AT KFAY AND KRDU. CEILINGS WILL THEN LIFT AFTER SUNRISE AS
MIXING KICKS IN BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 2-3K FT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON . SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST
OVER THE NC COASTAL PLAIN.
OUTLOOK...
TS ALBERTO WILL REMAIN EAST AND OFFSHORE WITH NO IMPACTS TO CENTRAL
NC. A CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS OVER NC WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRATUS
AND OR/FOG TUESDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...POTENTIALLY STALLING OVER NC UNTIL
LATER THIS WEEK. THUS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
TO LATE WEEK...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...KRR/MLM
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...SMITH
[top]
000
FXUS62 KILM 210550
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
150 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE AS IT MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE CAPE FEAR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. A
LINGERING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD BRING SOME SLIGHTLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WARM AND HUMID WEATHER
IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...STRATOCU SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECK WILL
CONTINUE EXPANDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND PROGGED SOUNDINGS...
THIS MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE MAINLY IN THE LOW LEVELS...BELOW 700 MB.
ABOVE 700MB...IT REMAINS DRY AS A BONE WITH PROGGED MODEL RHS LESS
THAN 20 PERCENT. ALBERTO MEANDERING OFFSHORE FROM THE GA
COAST...WILL BEGIN ACCELERATING TO THE NE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS A
RESULT OF A S/W TROF IN THE MID-LEVELS DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
PLAINS STATES. THIS UPPER S/W TROF WILL LITERALLY GIVE ALBERTO A
KICK START...FOR HIM TO FINALLY BEGIN ACCELERATING TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND AWAY FROM THE U.S. MAINLAND. COULD ONLY INDICATE 20
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3RD OF THE ILM CWA...WITH LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION THE CONTRIBUTOR. INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT ALSO IN
QUESTION...AND AS A RESULT HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF TONIGHTS
FORECAST. MORE OR LESS TWEAKED TONIGHTS MINS WITH ALL LOCATIONS IN
THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE FORECAST HINGES
UPON THE LOCATION AND CONDITION OF ALBERTO. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE TRACK OF THE STORM CONTINUES WITH THE LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK
KEEPING ALBERTO WELL OFF CAPE FEAR WITH NO IMPACT ON THE FORECAST
AREA. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STORM MAY NOT SURVIVE
BEYOND 24 HOURS...A POSSIBILITY GIVEN ITS LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR
APPEARANCE. EITHER WAY THE IMPACT ON THE AREA WILL BE LITTLE IF
ANY...LEAVING THE BROAD UPPER IN PLACE MON...ONLY TO BE REPLACED
BY ANOTHER 5H TROUGH TUE. THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH AXIS MON AND
TUE SUGGESTS TUE COULD BE THE MORE ACTIVE DAY OF THE TWO. ON TUE
THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW. COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND SEABREEZE WILL
PROVIDE SOME LIFT...ALONG WITH INSTABILITY FROM DIURNAL
HEATING...WHILE ALOFT DIVERGENT FLOW AND SHORTWAVE WILL ADD SOME
ENHANCEMENT. THINK BOTH DAYS WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION IN THE
AREA...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS TUE. NORTHEAST FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS
MON NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO...COOLEST ALONG THE NC COAST.
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS EXPECTED TUE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOWS BOTH NIGHT WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE CLIMO WITH THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW...DEVELOPING LATE MON NIGHT KEEPING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...AN ILL-DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IN THE MID
TO UPPER LEVELS...AN H5 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE CAROLINAS ON WED AND
THEN LIFTS OFF SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRI AS RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY A REFLECTION OF
UPPER LOW WILL PRODUCE A WEAK LOW AT THE SFC WHICH MAY INTERACT
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT DOES NOT QUITE MAKE IT PAST VIRGINIA.
THIS MAY ALSO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR LOCALIZED CONVECTION OVER THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS ON WED AND COULD BE AN ACTIVE DAY OF SHWRS/TSTMS
ON WED. THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL BE WEAK AS SFC PRESSURE PATTERN
REMAINS WEAKER AND WINDS WILL BE DRIVEN MORE BY LAND/SEA BREEZE
WED THROUGH SAT. THEREFORE LOOKS LIKE THE WEATHER WILL BE MORE
LOCALIZED ALONG SEA BREEZE OR ANY OTHER MESO BOUNDARIES. LOCAL
AREA MAY BE IN SUBSIDENCE ON BACK END OF LOW AS IT LIFTS OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AS EARLY AS THURS DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW
LIFTS AWAY. THEN RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE EXPECT BEST CHC OF PCP ON WED AND DECREASING CHC
THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM CANADA MAY PUSH A
COLD FRONT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...BUT RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND
THEREFORE MAY NOT SEE MUCH FROM THIS FRONT MORE THAN AN INCREASE
IN NORTHERLY WINDS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEPT TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER ON WED WITH UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR WEST AND
INCREASED CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP. OVERALL EXPECT TEMP REACHING ABOVE
NORMAL AS HEIGHTS RISE AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO HAS BEGUN ITS COUNTERCLOCKWISE
TURN AND WILL BE ACCELERATING TO THE NE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS. E-NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING ABOUT A
RETURN OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH SUNRISE. WILL INCLUDE IFR
CEILINGS AT KCRE AND KMYR WHERE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW NEAR SATURATION
AROUND 400 FT. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OFFSHORE MAY BRING A SHOWER TO
KILM 09-12Z...BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN E OF THE
TERMINAL. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT CIGS TO TRANSITION TO VFR IN THE
12Z TO 15Z WINDOW AND REMAIN VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. E
TO NE FLOW THROUGH MONDAY MAY BRING BRIEF SHOWERS TO/NEAR THE
TERMINALS AFTER
15Z...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/TEMPO
IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...THE SCEC CONTINUES ACROSS ALL WATERS
TONIGHT...AND HAVE IT EXPIRING AROUND 5 AM MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM
ALBERTO REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST EAST OF THE GEORGIA COAST FOR
THE MOMENT. ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN HIS ACCELERATION NORTHEAST
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW EAST OF THE VIRGINIA COASTLINE
WILL COMBINE WITH THE FLOW FROM ALBERTO...AND PRODUCE A SOLID NE TO
E 15 KT WIND...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ACROSS THE ILM WATERS. SEAS
REMAIN ELEVATED PARTIALLY FROM ALBERTO...BUT MORE-SO FROM THE
SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN NORTHEAST WIND FLOW. LOOK FOR 3 TO 5 FT FOR SEAS
ACROSS ALL ILM WATERS...EXCEPT LOCALLY 6 FT JUST BEYOND 20 NM OFF
CAPE FEAR...WITH A SLOW DECLINING TREND DURING MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...ALBERTO REMAINS A FLY IN THE OINTMENT THOUGH THE
LATEST FORECAST KEEPS IMPACTS FROM THE STORM EAST OF THE WATERS.
NORTHEAST FLOW MON WILL BACK TO NORTHWEST LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE
AS ALBERTO...OR WHAT REMAINS OF ALBERTO...PASSES EAST OF THE COAST.
BECAUSE THE STORM IS SO SMALL AND IN A WEAKENED STATE DO NOT EXCEPT
MUCH IF ANY INCREASE IN WINDS AS THE STORM PASSES. WINDS BACK
FURTHER TO SOUTHWEST TUE/TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO
15 KT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL RUN 3 TO 5 FT...MADE UP OF
EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL AND A NORTHEAST WIND WAVE. LATE IN THE
PERIOD NORTHEAST WIND WAVE WILL BE REPLACED BY A SOUTHERLY WIND
WAVE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...EXPECT A GENERAL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN AN
OTHERWISE ILL-DEFINED SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION FROM UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN CAROLINAS SHOULD HELP TO
PRODUCE A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER GRADIENT FLOW ON WED AND AN INCREASED
CHC OF CONVECTION...MAINLY LATE WED. THEREFORE WINDS ON WED MAY
REACH 15 KTS OUT SOUTH BUT OVERALL EXPECT WINDS 10 KTS OR
LESS...WITH GREATER ON SHORE COMPONENT IN THE AFTERNOONS DUE TO
SEA BREEZE. EXPECT WINDS TO BE DOMINATED BY LAND/SEA BREEZE
INTERACTIONS THROUGH MOST OF LATE WEEK AS RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT. SEAS
WILL BE UP TO 4 FT WED BUT WILL DIMINISH AND REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT IN
LIGHT S WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...TRL
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RAN/RJD
[top]
000
FXUS62 KMHX 210521
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
121 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA WILL DRIFT WEST
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO OFF THE GEORGIA COAST
IS FORECAST TO STALL OVERNIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
FOR ALBERTO. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION MID WEEK THEN SLOWLY SHIFT E OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 120 AM MONDAY...BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN SHORT TERM
POP FORECAST OVERNIGHT. EARLIER LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN HAVE DISSIPATED. WELL OFFSHORE A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION
WAS APPROACHING THE COAST BUT HAS BEEN WEAKENING WITH A NOTABLE
DECREASE IN OBSERVED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND MAXIMUM REFLECTIVITY`S
OVER THE PAST HOUR. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS (HIGHEST NORTH) BUT
NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE COASTAL REGION THOUGH IF BAND OF
OFFSHORE CONVECTION HOLDS TOGETHER BUT THAT ACTIVITY IS STILL
SEVERAL HOURS AWAY. THE 00Z MHX SOUNDING WAS VERY MOIST IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND WOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL
STRATUS AND PATCHES OF DENSE FOG. WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY CLOUDY
FORECAST WITH NO CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST
PLANNED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...T.S.ALBERTO WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NE ON MON THEN
ACCELERATE IN FORWARD SPEED. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONT TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS STORM. AT THIS TIME MAIN IMPACTS ALBEIT SLIGHT
SHOULD BE OVER THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS AS THE
CURRENT NHC FORECAST KEEPS THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE. MORE INSTABILITY
EXPECTED ON MON WITH CHCS FOR TSRA POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE AFTN.
SKIES CONT. MOS CLDY WITH HIGHS MAINLY MID TO UPR 70S. WINDS VEER
TO LIGHT SE IN THE AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM SUN...TS ALBERTO WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
TODAY WITH A MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS AS WELL AS NHC KEEPING THE
TRACK OF THE STORM OFFSHORE. CURRENT HPC PROGS PLACE THE STORM
APPROX 100 MI S OF CAPE FEAR AT 00Z TUE WITH THE STORM TRAVELING
NORTHEAST IN VICINITY OF THE GULF STREAM MON NIGHT/TUE
MORNING...TO APPROX 100 MI E OF CAPE HATTERAS AROUND 18Z TUE. IT
IS STILL LOOKING LIKE IMPACTS WILL PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL AREAS WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE AN ENHANCED RIP
CURRENT RISK AND INCREASED SURF FOR THE BEACHES...AND GUSTY WINDS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. MAY SEE MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES
AS WELL BUT WITH THE TRACK A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE THINK WATER
LEVEL RISES WILL PRIMARILY BE ALONG THE COAST AND NOT SO MUCH
ACROSS THE SOUNDS. STILL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO
ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS EVOLVING
SYSTEM.
STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINLY TUE AND BEYOND. A ROBUST UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES TUE AND DEVELOPS INTO ANOTHER CUTOFF
LOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT AND WED. THIS
PLACES THE REGION IN GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW ADVECTING IN AMPLE MOISTURE BRINGING SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST THU AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT
LAKES REGION BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN TO
ALLOW FOR A FEW DIURNAL STORMS. UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND
BUT MAY SEE WEAK SYSTEMS DROPPING S ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE SO WILL KEEP MINIMAL POPS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS LOOK
TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE L80S INLAND TO 70S
ALONG THE COAST AND LOWS IN THE 60S THROUGH MID WEEK BUT
THICKNESSES INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE W.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 120 AM MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH MID MONDAY MORNING. VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS LEADING
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL STRATUS AND PATCHES OF DENSE FOG.
FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN LOW CEILINGS BUT FOG IS MORE PROBLEMATIC
AS DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AT TIMES. THINKING
OF GOING WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES MOST TAF SITES. FOG/LOW CLOUDS ARE
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AFTER 15Z THEN EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM SUN...TS ALBERTO PROGGED TO PASS OFFSHORE MON NIGHT
AND TUE BUT LIKELY FAR ENOUGH THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT AT THE TERMINALS. SCT MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS
EXPECTED TUE THROUGH THU AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW SETTLES TO THE W.
THE LOW LIFTS N THU WITH RIDGING BUILDING TO THE W DEFLECTING
STORMS TO THE N BUT COULD SEE AN ISOL SHOWER OR STORM. PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING OF THE EXTENDED AS WELL.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 120 AM MONDAY...ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT (LESS
THAN 10 KT) AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...SWELL ENERGY CONTINUES AROUND BOTH TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO
TO THE SOUTH OFF THE GEORGIA COAST AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. WILL MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR 1
MORE CYCLE AS WAVES HAVE SUBSIDED TO 4-5 FT AS OF 4Z BUT WANT TO
MAKE SURE THIS IS A TREND AND NOT JUST A BRIEF LULL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUN...TS ALBERTO WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE FEATURE FOR
THE BEGINNING PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. LATEST NHC TRACK HAS TS
ALBERTO APPROX 100 MI S OF CAPE FEAR AT 00Z TUE WITH THE STORM
TRAVELING NORTHEAST IN VICINITY OF THE GULF STREAM MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING...TO APPROX 100 MI E OF CAPE HATTERAS AROUND 18Z
TUE. WHILE MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK...THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM AND MARINERS ARE
URGED CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM.
EXPECT GREATEST IMPACTS TO OCCUR LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE WITH
WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING MINIMAL TS STRENGTH ACROSS THE OUTER
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO CAPE HATTERS.
OPERATIONAL WAVEWATCH HAS HIGHEST SEAS AROUND 6 FT PEAKING ON TUE
BUT COULD SEE UP TO 10 FT SEAS AS PROGGED BY HURRICANE WAVEWATCH.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY
WED...FROM S TO N. AT THIS TIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH PREDOMINATE S/SW FLOW
AOB 15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150-
152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/JME
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JME/SK
MARINE...CTC/JME/SK
000
FXUS62 KILM 210308
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1045 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE AS IT MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE CAPE FEAR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. A
LINGERING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD BRING SOME SLIGHTLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WARM AND HUMID WEATHER
IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...STRATOCU SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECK WILL
CONTINUE EXPANDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND PROGGED SOUNDINGS
...THIS MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE MAINLY IN THE LOW LEVELS...VIA BELOW
700 MB. ABOVE 700MB...IT REMAINS DRY AS A BONE WITH PROGGED MODEL
RHS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. ALBERTO MEANDERING OFFSHORE FROM THE GA
COAST...WILL BEGIN ACCELERATING TO THE NE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS A
RESULT OF A S/W TROF IN THE MID-LEVELS DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
PLAINS STATES. THIS UPPER S/W TROF WILL LITERALLY GIVE ALBERTO A
KICK START...FOR HIM TO FINALLY BEGIN ACCELERATING TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND AWAY FROM THE U.S. MAINLAND. COULD ONLY INDICATE 20
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3RD OF THE ILM CWA...WITH LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION THE CONTRIBUTOR. INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT ALSO IN
QUESTION...AND AS A RESULT HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF TONIGHTS
FORECAST. MORE OR LESS TWEAKED TONIGHTS MINS WITH ALL LOCATIONS IN
THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE FORECAST HINGES
UPON THE LOCATION AND CONDITION OF ALBERTO. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE TRACK OF THE STORM CONTINUES WITH THE LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK
KEEPING ALBERTO WELL OFF CAPE FEAR WITH NO IMPACT ON THE FORECAST
AREA. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STORM MAY NOT SURVIVE
BEYOND 24 HOURS...A POSSIBILITY GIVEN ITS LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR
APPEARANCE. EITHER WAY THE IMPACT ON THE AREA WILL BE LITTLE IF
ANY...LEAVING THE BROAD UPPER IN PLACE MON...ONLY TO BE REPLACED
BY ANOTHER 5H TROUGH TUE. THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH AXIS MON AND
TUE SUGGESTS TUE COULD BE THE MORE ACTIVE DAY OF THE TWO. ON TUE
THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW. COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND SEABREEZE WILL
PROVIDE SOME LIFT...ALONG WITH INSTABILITY FROM DIURNAL
HEATING...WHILE ALOFT DIVERGENT FLOW AND SHORTWAVE WILL ADD SOME
ENHANCEMENT. THINK BOTH DAYS WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION IN THE
AREA...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS TUE. NORTHEAST FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS
MON NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO...COOLEST ALONG THE NC COAST.
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS EXPECTED TUE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOWS BOTH NIGHT WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE CLIMO WITH THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW...DEVELOPING LATE MON NIGHT KEEPING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...AN ILL-DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IN THE MID
TO UPPER LEVELS...AN H5 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE CAROLINAS ON WED AND
THEN LIFTS OFF SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRI AS RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY A REFLECTION OF
UPPER LOW WILL PRODUCE A WEAK LOW AT THE SFC WHICH MAY INTERACT
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT DOES NOT QUITE MAKE IT PAST VIRGINIA.
THIS MAY ALSO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR LOCALIZED CONVECTION OVER THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS ON WED AND COULD BE AN ACTIVE DAY OF SHWRS/TSTMS
ON WED. THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL BE WEAK AS SFC PRESSURE PATTERN
REMAINS WEAKER AND WINDS WILL BE DRIVEN MORE BY LAND/SEA BREEZE
WED THROUGH SAT. THEREFORE LOOKS LIKE THE WEATHER WILL BE MORE
LOCALIZED ALONG SEA BREEZE OR ANY OTHER MESO BOUNDARIES. LOCAL
AREA MAY BE IN SUBSIDENCE ON BACK END OF LOW AS IT LIFTS OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AS EARLY AS THURS DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW
LIFTS AWAY. THEN RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE EXPECT BEST CHC OF PCP ON WED AND DECREASING CHC
THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM CANADA MAY PUSH A
COLD FRONT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...BUT RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND
THEREFORE MAY NOT SEE MUCH FROM THIS FRONT MORE THAN AN INCREASE
IN NORTHERLY WINDS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEPT TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER ON WED WITH UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR WEST AND
INCREASED CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP. OVERALL EXPECT TEMP REACHING ABOVE
NORMAL AS HEIGHTS RISE AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...TS ALBERTO IS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS DRIFTING WEST. VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOPS ARE SHOWING EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE AREA
ADVECTING SOUTHWEST IN THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. CIGS ARE
PRESENTLY VFR AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT CRE WHERE SKIES HAVE
TEMPORARILY CLEARED.
SFC WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVENING. CEILING HEIGHTS
DURING THE EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWERING TO MVFR WITH IFR CIGS
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND TRANSITION TO VFR IN THE 12Z TO 15Z
WINDOW. WITH E TO NE FLOW CONTINUING MONDAY...COULD SEE SHOWERS
NEARING THE TERMINALS AFTER 15Z...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. FOR
NOW...PROBS ARE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/TEMPO
IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...THE SCEC CONTINUES ACROSS ALL WATERS
TONIGHT...AND HAVE IT EXPIRING AROUND 5 AM MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM
ALBERTO REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST EAST OF THE GEORGIA COAST FOR
THE MOMENT. ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN HIS ACCELERATION NORTHEAST
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW EAST OF THE VIRGINIA COASTLINE
WILL COMBINE WITH THE FLOW FROM ALBERTO...AND PRODUCE A SOLID NE TO
E 15 KT WIND...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ACROSS THE ILM WATERS. SEAS
REMAIN ELEVATED PARTIALLY FROM ALBERTO...BUT MORE-SO FROM THE
SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN NORTHEAST WIND FLOW. LOOK FOR 3 TO 5 FT FOR SEAS
ACROSS ALL ILM WATERS...EXCEPT LOCALLY 6 FT JUST BEYOND 20 NM OFF
CAPE FEAR...WITH A SLOW DECLINING TREND DURING MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...ALBERTO REMAINS A FLY IN THE OINTMENT THOUGH THE
LATEST FORECAST KEEPS IMPACTS FROM THE STORM EAST OF THE WATERS.
NORTHEAST FLOW MON WILL BACK TO NORTHWEST LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE
AS ALBERTO...OR WHAT REMAINS OF ALBERTO...PASSES EAST OF THE COAST.
BECAUSE THE STORM IS SO SMALL AND IN A WEAKENED STATE DO NOT EXCEPT
MUCH IF ANY INCREASE IN WINDS AS THE STORM PASSES. WINDS BACK
FURTHER TO SOUTHWEST TUE/TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO
15 KT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL RUN 3 TO 5 FT...MADE UP OF
EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL AND A NORTHEAST WIND WAVE. LATE IN THE
PERIOD NORTHEAST WIND WAVE WILL BE REPLACED BY A SOUTHERLY WIND
WAVE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...EXPECT A GENERAL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN AN
OTHERWISE ILL-DEFINED SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION FROM UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN CAROLINAS SHOULD HELP TO
PRODUCE A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER GRADIENT FLOW ON WED AND AN INCREASED
CHC OF CONVECTION...MAINLY LATE WED. THEREFORE WINDS ON WED MAY
REACH 15 KTS OUT SOUTH BUT OVERALL EXPECT WINDS 10 KTS OR
LESS...WITH GREATER ON SHORE COMPONENT IN THE AFTERNOONS DUE TO
SEA BREEZE. EXPECT WINDS TO BE DOMINATED BY LAND/SEA BREEZE
INTERACTIONS THROUGH MOST OF LATE WEEK AS RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT. SEAS
WILL BE UP TO 4 FT WED BUT WILL DIMINISH AND REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT IN
LIGHT S WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 1045 PM SUNDAY...THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES FOR MID TO LATE
THIS EVENING HAVE PEAKED...AND ARE NOW WELL ON THEIR WAY TOWARD LOW
TIDE. HIGH TIDE LEVELS PEAKED AROUND...
5.2 FT DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON...+0.4 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES.
5.0 FT JOHNNY MERCER PIER...+0.6 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES.
6.2 FT AT SPRINGMAID PIER...+0.5 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES.
ALL READINGS REMAINED BELOW MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS.
$$
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...TRL
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DCH
000
FXUS62 KRAH 210150
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
949 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFFSHORE INTO MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
NORTHEAST... AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM SUNDAY....
THERE HAS BEEN A STEADY INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM EAST TO WEST
ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH DEWPOINTS
CURRENTLY RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE WEST TO MID 60S ACROSS
THE EAST. A SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE NC/VA BORDER HAS
SLOWLY DRIFTED INLAND THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN SOME MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS...
WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...THESE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE LOW. THEREFORE...WILL TREND POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
THE WEST TO CHANCE ACROSS THE EAST (WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE
RESIDES). THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN WARMER
OVERNIGHT LOWS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
WEST TO LOWER 60S FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. -KRR
THE NORTHERN SURFACE LOW WEAKENS WITH BROAD WEAK TROFFING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FOR TS ALBERTO KEEPS THE
SYSTEM OFF THE COAST WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS CONFINED TO COASTAL
AREAS. FORCING IS HARD TO FIND...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE. WITH THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND HIGHS DAMPENED
BY CLOUDINESS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY TOPPING OUT AROUND 50 PERCENT IN THE FAR EAST. HIGHS WILL
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MOIST AIRMASS AND GENERAL
TROUGHINESS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID
LEVEL TROF... MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
MINS AGAIN REMAIN MILD...IN THE LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...
MODELS GENERALLY ARE COMING INTO EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING
OF THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER IN BOTH
DEPTH (STRONGEST SOLUTION)... AND TIMING (SLOWEST SOLUTION) WITH THE
SYSTEMS DEPARTURE LATE WED AND WED NIGHT. WE WILL GENERALLY KEEP OUR
CURRENT FORECAST INTACT WITH THE HIGHEST POP (LIKELY) BEGINNING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST... AND SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE REST
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF NC LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST REPRESENTATIVE
OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTION ALONG WITH A WHOLE HOST OF THE EC
ENSEMBLES. THIS WOULD BRING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THEN PUSHING THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT SLOWLY EAST
INTO THE CENTER OF THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE... WE WILL MAINTAIN RATHER HIGH POPS WED AND WED EVENING.
QPF LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.50 TO LOCALLY 1.00 INCH STORM
AREAL STORM TOTAL AVERAGE TUE-WED NIGHT.
THE CLOUDINESS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO
LOWER MAXES IN THE WEST TUE AFTERNOON AND OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT READINGS A CATEGORY OR TWO LOWER THAN THE GFS MOS IN THESE
SPECIFIC AREAS BOTH DAYS. HIGHS 80-88 NW TO S TUESDAY... THEN 80-85
WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...
A GENERAL TREND TOWARD RISING HEIGHTS WITH THE CORE OF THE HEIGHT
RISES EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A DRYING AND WARMING TREND. WE WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SOME MODELS INDICATE A
LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY (RESIDUAL COLD FRONT) OVER CENTRAL OR
EASTERN NC INTO FRIDAY. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD BEGIN TO LIMIT
STORM COVERAGE. THEN... A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME COOLING
STORMS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES IF IT IS ABLE TO SLIP DOWN THIS
FAR SAT-SUN. OTHERWISE... MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY BY SAT-SUN WITH
LOWS IN THE 64-69 RANGE AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM SUNDAY...
CEILINGS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NC NORTHERN COAST MOVES WEST OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING OVER CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW PUSHES
INLAND...EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR FROM EAST TO WEST THIS
EVENING...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES. AS BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLS OVERNIGHT...A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED IN THE
09-13Z TIME FRAME AT RWI...AND QUITE POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS
RDU AND FAY. CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT/IMPROVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...BUT DAYTIME SHOULD ALLOW A
RETURN TO VFR CEILINGS AT GSO AND INT AOA 15Z...DELAYED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TERMINALS TO BETWEEN 15 TO 18Z. AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION WITH A CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS AND A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA...WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM
RDU EASTWARD.
FOR THE LONG TERM...TS ALBERTO WILL REMAIN EAST AND OFFSHORE WITH NO
IMPACTS TO CENTRAL NC. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS TUESDAY
MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC WILL APPROACH
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...AND WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST...POSSIBLY
STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THROUGH. THIS WILL BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...KRR/MLM
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...CBL
000
FXUS62 KMHX 210130
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
930 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL DRIFT WEST
AND REACH THE NORTHERN COAST LATER TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FOR ALBERTO. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION MID WEEK THEN SLOWLY SHIFT E OF THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 925 PM SUNDAY...LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO AFFECT
MAINLY THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. THESE
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN AN AXIS OF WEAK SURFACE THETA-E/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH SOME 300 MB DIVERGENCE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTHWEST OUT OF AKQ`S CWA...SO WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PCT POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE COAST. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO
CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...T.S.ALBERTO WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NE ON MON THEN
ACCELERATE IN FORWARD SPEED. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONT TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS STORM. AT THIS TIME MAIN IMPACTS ALBEIT SLIGHT
SHOULD BE OVER THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS AS THE
CURRENT NHC FORECAST KEEPS THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE. MORE INSTABILITY
EXPECTED ON MON WITH CHCS FOR TSRA POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE AFTN.
SKIES CONT. MOS CLDY WITH HIGHS MAINLY MID TO UPR 70S. WINDS VEER
TO LIGHT SE IN THE AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM SUN...TS ALBERTO WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
TODAY WITH A MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS AS WELL AS NHC KEEPING THE
TRACK OF THE STORM OFFSHORE. CURRENT HPC PROGS PLACE THE STORM
APPROX 100 MI S OF CAPE FEAR AT 00Z TUE WITH THE STORM TRAVELING
NORTHEAST IN VICINITY OF THE GULF STREAM MON NIGHT/TUE
MORNING...TO APPROX 100 MI E OF CAPE HATTERAS AROUND 18Z TUE. IT
IS STILL LOOKING LIKE IMPACTS WILL PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL AREAS WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE AN ENHANCED RIP
CURRENT RISK AND INCREASED SURF FOR THE BEACHES...AND GUSTY WINDS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. MAY SEE MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES
AS WELL BUT WITH THE TRACK A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE THINK WATER
LEVEL RISES WILL PRIMARILY BE ALONG THE COAST AND NOT SO MUCH
ACROSS THE SOUNDS. STILL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO
ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS EVOLVING
SYSTEM.
STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINLY TUE AND BEYOND. A ROBUST UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES TUE AND DEVELOPS INTO ANOTHER CUTOFF
LOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT AND WED. THIS
PLACES THE REGION IN GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW ADVECTING IN AMPLE MOISTURE BRINGING SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST THU AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT
LAKES REGION BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN TO
ALLOW FOR A FEW DIURNAL STORMS. UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND
BUT MAY SEE WEAK SYSTEMS DROPPING S ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE SO WILL KEEP MINIMAL POPS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS LOOK
TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE L80S INLAND TO 70S
ALONG THE COAST AND LOWS IN THE 60S THROUGH MID WEEK BUT
THICKNESSES INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE W.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM SUNDAY...CEILINGS MAINLY IN THE MVFR RANGE CURRENTLY
WITH IFR/LIFR REPORTED AT KPGV AND KISO. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY NEAR PGV AND ISO PER LATEST RADAR WITH BEST
SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION IN THIS PORTION OF THE CWA PER UPPER
DIVERGENCE/SHEAR AXIS. BY LATE TONIGHT...ALL OF THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE INDICATES MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY AS DEEP MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM SUN...TS ALBERTO PROGGED TO PASS OFFSHORE MON NIGHT
AND TUE BUT LIKELY FAR ENOUGH THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT AT THE TERMINALS. SCT MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS
EXPECTED TUE THROUGH THU AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW SETTLES TO THE W.
THE LOW LIFTS N THU WITH RIDGING BUILDING TO THE W DEFLECTING
STORMS TO THE N BUT COULD SEE AN ISOL SHOWER OR STORM. PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING OF THE EXTENDED AS WELL.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM SUNDAY...DESPITE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND RATHER VARIABLE
WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...SWELL ENERGY CONTINUES AROUND
BOTH TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO TO THE SOUTH OFF THE GEORGIA COAST AND
WEAK LOW JUST NORTH OF THE OUTER BANKS. MAIN CHANGE TO MARINE
FORECAST AT THIS JUNCTURE IS TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE THROUGH 8 AM MONDAY MORNING AS
BUOY 13 MILES EAST OF OREGON INLET CONTINUES TO SHOW 6 FOOT SEAS
AND SUSPECT SOME 7-FOOTERS ARE QUITE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER THE
OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE MIDDLE MARINE ZONES.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUN...TS ALBERTO WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE FEATURE FOR
THE BEGINNING PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. LATEST NHC TRACK HAS TS
ALBERTO APPROX 100 MI S OF CAPE FEAR AT 00Z TUE WITH THE STORM
TRAVELING NORTHEAST IN VICINITY OF THE GULF STREAM MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING...TO APPROX 100 MI E OF CAPE HATTERAS AROUND 18Z
TUE. WHILE MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK...THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM AND MARINERS ARE
URGED CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM.
EXPECT GREATEST IMPACTS TO OCCUR LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE WITH
WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING MINIMAL TS STRENGTH ACROSS THE OUTER
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO CAPE HATTERS.
OPERATIONAL WAVEWATCH HAS HIGHEST SEAS AROUND 6 FT PEAKING ON TUE
BUT COULD SEE UP TO 10 FT SEAS AS PROGGED BY HURRICANE WAVEWATCH.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY
WED...FROM S TO N. AT THIS TIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH PREDOMINATE S/SW FLOW
AOB 15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK
000
FXUS62 KILM 210007
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
745 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE AS IT MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE CAPE FEAR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. A
LINGERING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD BRING SOME SLIGHTLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WARM AND HUMID WEATHER
IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM SUNDAY...STRATOCU CLOUD FIELD WILL CONTINUE EXPANDING
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THIS MOISTURE
IS FROM THE UPPER LOW OFF THE VIRGINA COAST THAT SLOWLY GETS
ABSORBED IN THE MEAN FLOW OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. DUE TO ALBERTO
MEANDERING OFFSHORE FROM THE GA COAST...WILL BEGIN ACCELERATING TO
THE NE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS A RESULT OF A S/W TROF IN THE
MID-LEVELS DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES. THIS UPPER S/W
TROF WILL LITERALLY GIVE ALBERTO THE BOOT...ALLOWING HIM TO FINALLY
BEGIN ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE U.S. MAINLAND.
THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WITHIN THE ATM COLUMN TONIGHT WILL
EXTEND FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ABOVE 7H WITH
PROGGED RH LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. THIS ILLUSTRATED WELL BY VARIOUS
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS. WILL LOWER THE -SHRA POTENTIAL TO 20 POPS OR
LESS WITH INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT ALSO IN QUESTION. FOR LOWS...THE
STRATOCU DECK WILL PREVENT ANY DECENT AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND WILL THEREFORE ADJUST MINS HIER BY NEARLY A CATEGORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE FORECAST HINGES
UPON THE LOCATION AND CONDITION OF ALBERTO. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE TRACK OF THE STORM CONTINUES WITH THE LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK
KEEPING ALBERTO WELL OFF CAPE FEAR WITH NO IMPACT ON THE FORECAST
AREA. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STORM MAY NOT SURVIVE
BEYOND 24 HOURS...A POSSIBILITY GIVEN ITS LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR
APPEARANCE. EITHER WAY THE IMPACT ON THE AREA WILL BE LITTLE IF
ANY...LEAVING THE BROAD UPPER IN PLACE MON...ONLY TO BE REPLACED
BY ANOTHER 5H TROUGH TUE. THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH AXIS MON AND
TUE SUGGESTS TUE COULD BE THE MORE ACTIVE DAY OF THE TWO. ON TUE
THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW. COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND SEABREEZE WILL
PROVIDE SOME LIFT...ALONG WITH INSTABILITY FROM DIURNAL
HEATING...WHILE ALOFT DIVERGENT FLOW AND SHORTWAVE WILL ADD SOME
ENHANCEMENT. THINK BOTH DAYS WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION IN THE
AREA...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS TUE. NORTHEAST FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS
MON NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO...COOLEST ALONG THE NC COAST.
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS EXPECTED TUE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOWS BOTH NIGHT WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE CLIMO WITH THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW...DEVELOPING LATE MON NIGHT KEEPING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...AN ILL-DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IN THE MID
TO UPPER LEVELS...AN H5 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE CAROLINAS ON WED AND
THEN LIFTS OFF SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRI AS RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY A REFLECTION OF
UPPER LOW WILL PRODUCE A WEAK LOW AT THE SFC WHICH MAY INTERACT
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT DOES NOT QUITE MAKE IT PAST VIRGINIA.
THIS MAY ALSO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR LOCALIZED CONVECTION OVER THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS ON WED AND COULD BE AN ACTIVE DAY OF SHWRS/TSTMS
ON WED. THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL BE WEAK AS SFC PRESSURE PATTERN
REMAINS WEAKER AND WINDS WILL BE DRIVEN MORE BY LAND/SEA BREEZE
WED THROUGH SAT. THEREFORE LOOKS LIKE THE WEATHER WILL BE MORE
LOCALIZED ALONG SEA BREEZE OR ANY OTHER MESO BOUNDARIES. LOCAL
AREA MAY BE IN SUBSIDENCE ON BACK END OF LOW AS IT LIFTS OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AS EARLY AS THURS DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW
LIFTS AWAY. THEN RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE EXPECT BEST CHC OF PCP ON WED AND DECREASING CHC
THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM CANADA MAY PUSH A
COLD FRONT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...BUT RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND
THEREFORE MAY NOT SEE MUCH FROM THIS FRONT MORE THAN AN INCREASE
IN NORTHERLY WINDS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEPT TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER ON WED WITH UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR WEST AND
INCREASED CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP. OVERALL EXPECT TEMP REACHING ABOVE
NORMAL AS HEIGHTS RISE AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...TS ALBERTO IS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS DRIFTING WEST. VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOPS ARE SHOWING EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE AREA
ADVECTING SOUTHWEST IN THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. CIGS ARE
PRESENTLY VFR AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT CRE WHERE SKIES HAVE
TEMPORARILY CLEARED.
SFC WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVENING. CEILING HEIGHTS
DURING THE EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWERING TO MVFR WITH IFR CIGS
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND TRANSITION TO VFR IN THE 12Z TO 15Z
WINDOW. WITH E TO NE FLOW CONTINUING MONDAY...COULD SEE SHOWERS
NEARING THE TERMINALS AFTER 15Z...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. FOR
NOW...PROBS ARE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/TEMPO
IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 745 PM SUNDAY...THE SCA HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A SCEC WHICH
HAVE EXPIRING AROUND 5 AM MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY JUST EAST OF THE GEORGIA COAST. ALBERTO WIS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN HIS ACCELERATION NORTHEAST BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE
UPPER LOW EAST OF THE VIRGINIA COASTLINE WILL COMBINE WITH THE FLOW
AROUND ALBERTO...AND PRODUCE A SOLID NE 15 KT WIND...WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT ACROSS THE ILM WATERS. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED PARTIALLY FROM
ALBERTO...BUT MORE-SO FROM THE SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN NORTHEAST FLOW.
LOOK FOR 3 TO 5 FT FOR SEAS ACROSS ALL ILM WATERS...EXCEPT LOCALLY 6
FT JUST BEYOND 20 NM OFF CAPE FEAR.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...ALBERTO REMAINS A FLY IN THE OINTMENT THOUGH THE
LATEST FORECAST KEEPS IMPACTS FROM THE STORM EAST OF THE WATERS.
NORTHEAST FLOW MON WILL BACK TO NORTHWEST LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE
AS ALBERTO...OR WHAT REMAINS OF ALBERTO...PASSES EAST OF THE COAST.
BECAUSE THE STORM IS SO SMALL AND IN A WEAKENED STATE DO NOT EXCEPT
MUCH IF ANY INCREASE IN WINDS AS THE STORM PASSES. WINDS BACK
FURTHER TO SOUTHWEST TUE/TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO
15 KT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL RUN 3 TO 5 FT...MADE UP OF
EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL AND A NORTHEAST WIND WAVE. LATE IN THE
PERIOD NORTHEAST WIND WAVE WILL BE REPLACED BY A SOUTHERLY WIND
WAVE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...EXPECT A GENERAL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN AN
OTHERWISE ILL-DEFINED SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION FROM UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN CAROLINAS SHOULD HELP TO
PRODUCE A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER GRADIENT FLOW ON WED AND AN INCREASED
CHC OF CONVECTION...MAINLY LATE WED. THEREFORE WINDS ON WED MAY
REACH 15 KTS OUT SOUTH BUT OVERALL EXPECT WINDS 10 KTS OR
LESS...WITH GREATER ON SHORE COMPONENT IN THE AFTERNOONS DUE TO
SEA BREEZE. EXPECT WINDS TO BE DOMINATED BY LAND/SEA BREEZE
INTERACTIONS THROUGH MOST OF LATE WEEK AS RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT. SEAS
WILL BE UP TO 4 FT WED BUT WILL DIMINISH AND REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT IN
LIGHT S WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED
TONIGHT WITH THE NEW MOON. THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER TIDE GAUGE AT
DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON APPEARS TO RUN THE MOST RISK OF APPROACHING
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CRITERIA OF 5.50 FEET MLLW WITH THIS
EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. WATER LEVEL ANOMALIES ABOVE THE ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE HAVE RANGED FROM +0.4 TO +1.0 FEET OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...AND
ANYTHING GREATER THAN +0.7 FEET WOULD PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
TONIGHT FOR LOW-LYING FLOOD-PRONE REGIONS DOWNTOWN. WE ANTICIPATE
RIVER LEVELS TO REMAIN 0.1 TO 0.2 FEET BELOW THIS LEVEL AND
THEREFORE WILL NOT RAISE AN ADVISORY TONIGHT.
$$
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...TRL
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TRA
000
FXUS62 KRAH 202350
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
750 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFFSHORE INTO MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
NORTHEAST... AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY....
CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA DRIFTS
WEST TOWARDS THE COAST. DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL BE GRADUALLY
MOISTENING...BUT THERE WILL BE ONLY VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC FORCING...
AND CORRESPONDING POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY LIGHT RAIN IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CWFA OVERNIGHT. NO MORE THAN A CHANCE POP. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL MAINTAIN MILD TEMPS...WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S.
THE NORTHERN SURFACE LOW WEAKENS WITH BROAD WEAK TROFFING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FOR TS ALBERTO KEEPS THE
SYSTEM OFF THE COAST WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS CONFINED TO COASTAL
AREAS. FORCING IS HARD TO FIND...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE. WITH THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND HIGHS DAMPENED
BY CLOUDINESS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY TOPPING OUT AROUND 50 PERCENT IN THE FAR EAST. HIGHS WILL
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MOIST AIRMASS AND GENERAL
TROUGHINESS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID
LEVEL TROF... MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
MINS AGAIN REMAIN MILD...IN THE LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...
MODELS GENERALLY ARE COMING INTO EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING
OF THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER IN BOTH
DEPTH (STRONGEST SOLUTION)... AND TIMING (SLOWEST SOLUTION) WITH THE
SYSTEMS DEPARTURE LATE WED AND WED NIGHT. WE WILL GENERALLY KEEP OUR
CURRENT FORECAST INTACT WITH THE HIGHEST POP (LIKELY) BEGINNING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST... AND SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE REST
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF NC LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST REPRESENTATIVE
OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTION ALONG WITH A WHOLE HOST OF THE EC
ENSEMBLES. THIS WOULD BRING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THEN PUSHING THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT SLOWLY EAST
INTO THE CENTER OF THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE... WE WILL MAINTAIN RATHER HIGH POPS WED AND WED EVENING.
QPF LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.50 TO LOCALLY 1.00 INCH STORM
AREAL STORM TOTAL AVERAGE TUE-WED NIGHT.
THE CLOUDINESS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO
LOWER MAXES IN THE WEST TUE AFTERNOON AND OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT READINGS A CATEGORY OR TWO LOWER THAN THE GFS MOS IN THESE
SPECIFIC AREAS BOTH DAYS. HIGHS 80-88 NW TO S TUESDAY... THEN 80-85
WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...
A GENERAL TREND TOWARD RISING HEIGHTS WITH THE CORE OF THE HEIGHT
RISES EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A DRYING AND WARMING TREND. WE WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SOME MODELS INDICATE A
LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY (RESIDUAL COLD FRONT) OVER CENTRAL OR
EASTERN NC INTO FRIDAY. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD BEGIN TO LIMIT
STORM COVERAGE. THEN... A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME COOLING
STORMS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES IF IT IS ABLE TO SLIP DOWN THIS
FAR SAT-SUN. OTHERWISE... MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY BY SAT-SUN WITH
LOWS IN THE 64-69 RANGE AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM SUNDAY...
CEILINGS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NC NORTHERN COAST MOVES WEST OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING OVER CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW PUSHES
INLAND...EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR FROM EAST TO WEST THIS
EVENING...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES. AS BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLS OVERNIGHT...A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED IN THE
09-13Z TIME FRAME AT RWI...AND QUITE POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS
RDU AND FAY. CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT/IMPROVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...BUT DAYTIME SHOULD ALLOW A
RETURN TO VFR CEILINGS AT GSO AND INT AOA 15Z...DELAYED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TERMINALS TO BETWEEN 15 TO 18Z. AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION WITH A CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS AND A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA...WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM
RDU EASTWARD.
FOR THE LONG TERM...TS ALBERTO WILL REMAIN EAST AND OFFSHORE WITH NO
IMPACTS TO CENTRAL NC. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS TUESDAY
MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC WILL APPROACH
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...AND WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST...POSSIBLY
STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THROUGH. THIS WILL BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...MLM
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...CBL
000
FXUS62 KILM 202326
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
726 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE AS IT MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE CAPE FEAR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. A
LINGERING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD BRING SOME SLIGHTLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WARM AND HUMID WEATHER
IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WE HAVE A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WITH TWO
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEAL WITH AT THE SURFACE AND A BAGGY
UPPER LOW ALOFT. TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS NEARLY STATIONARY EAST
OF THE GEORGIA COASTLINE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD MOVE VERY
LITTLE TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
IN THE FACE OF COOL DRY AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM. ALTHOUGH OPERATIONAL MODELS FED BY
SATELLITE SOUNDER DATA HAVE INITIALIZED WITH ALBERTO AS A WARM
CORE SYSTEM IT`S STILL COLDER AT 500 MB (-12 C) OVER THE STORM
THAN ALONG THE PERIPHERY...A FACTOR THAT IS PROBABLY HELPING
MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY DESPITE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
CONDITIONS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND ON THE OCEAN SURFACE. A NON-
TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST HAS FED
ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN AN INDIRECT MANNER INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EXPANDING
AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING WILMINGTON... ELIZABETHTOWN
AND WHITEVILLE. THIS CLOUD MASS SHOULD GROW THIS EVENING AND MAY
COVER A GOOD DEAL EASTERN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA BY MIDNIGHT.
SHOWER CHANCES WILL HINGE ON HOW MUCH SOUTHEAST FLOW CAN DEVELOP
FROM 925-700 MB TO PUSH ATLANTIC CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ONSHORE. ONCE
SEPARATED FROM THE RELATIVELY WARM MARINE ENVIRONMENT THESE SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY DECAY...SO OUR POPS TONIGHT RANGE FROM 40S OFFSHORE...TO
30 PERCENT AT THE COAST...TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL
TONIGHT...WITH 61-63 DEGREES EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR
AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE PEE DEE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE FORECAST HINGES
UPON THE LOCATION AND CONDITION OF ALBERTO. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE TRACK OF THE STORM CONTINUES WITH THE LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK
KEEPING ALBERTO WELL OFF CAPE FEAR WITH NO IMPACT ON THE FORECAST
AREA. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STORM MAY NOT SURVIVE
BEYOND 24 HOURS...A POSSIBILITY GIVEN ITS LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR
APPEARANCE. EITHER WAY THE IMPACT ON THE AREA WILL BE LITTLE IF
ANY...LEAVING THE BROAD UPPER IN PLACE MON...ONLY TO BE REPLACED
BY ANOTHER 5H TROUGH TUE. THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH AXIS MON AND
TUE SUGGESTS TUE COULD BE THE MORE ACTIVE DAY OF THE TWO. ON TUE
THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW. COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND SEABREEZE WILL
PROVIDE SOME LIFT...ALONG WITH INSTABILITY FROM DIURNAL
HEATING...WHILE ALOFT DIVERGENT FLOW AND SHORTWAVE WILL ADD SOME
ENHANCEMENT. THINK BOTH DAYS WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION IN THE
AREA...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS TUE. NORTHEAST FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS
MON NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO...COOLEST ALONG THE NC COAST.
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS EXPECTED TUE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOWS BOTH NIGHT WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE CLIMO WITH THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW...DEVELOPING LATE MON NIGHT KEEPING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...AN ILL-DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IN THE MID
TO UPPER LEVELS...AN H5 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE CAROLINAS ON WED AND
THEN LIFTS OFF SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRI AS RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY A REFLECTION OF
UPPER LOW WILL PRODUCE A WEAK LOW AT THE SFC WHICH MAY INTERACT
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT DOES NOT QUITE MAKE IT PAST VIRGINIA.
THIS MAY ALSO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR LOCALIZED CONVECTION OVER THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS ON WED AND COULD BE AN ACTIVE DAY OF SHWRS/TSTMS
ON WED. THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL BE WEAK AS SFC PRESSURE PATTERN
REMAINS WEAKER AND WINDS WILL BE DRIVEN MORE BY LAND/SEA BREEZE
WED THROUGH SAT. THEREFORE LOOKS LIKE THE WEATHER WILL BE MORE
LOCALIZED ALONG SEA BREEZE OR ANY OTHER MESO BOUNDARIES. LOCAL
AREA MAY BE IN SUBSIDENCE ON BACK END OF LOW AS IT LIFTS OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AS EARLY AS THURS DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW
LIFTS AWAY. THEN RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE EXPECT BEST CHC OF PCP ON WED AND DECREASING CHC
THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM CANADA MAY PUSH A
COLD FRONT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...BUT RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND
THEREFORE MAY NOT SEE MUCH FROM THIS FRONT MORE THAN AN INCREASE
IN NORTHERLY WINDS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEPT TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER ON WED WITH UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR WEST AND
INCREASED CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP. OVERALL EXPECT TEMP REACHING ABOVE
NORMAL AS HEIGHTS RISE AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...TS ALBERTO IS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS DRIFTING WEST. VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOPS ARE SHOWING EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE AREA
ADVECTING SOUTHWEST IN THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. CIGS ARE
PRESENTLY VFR AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT CRE WHERE SKIES HAVE
TEMPORARILY CLEARED.
SFC WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVENING. CEILING HEIGHTS
DURING THE EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWERING TO MVFR WITH IFR CIGS
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND TRANSITION TO VFR IN THE 12Z TO 15Z
WINDOW. WITH E TO NE FLOW CONTINUING MONDAY...COULD SEE SHOWERS
NEARING THE TERMINALS AFTER 15Z...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. FOR
NOW...PROBS ARE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/TEMPO
IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE IMPACTING THE
WEATHER ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. ONE IS TROPICAL
STORM ALBERTO WHICH IS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST EAST OF THE GEORGIA
COAST. THE SECOND IS A NON-TROPICAL LOW EAST OF THE VIRGINIA
COASTLINE. A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF BOTH LOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING
10-15 KNOTS. ALBERTO REMAINS TOO FAR AWAY FOR ANY DIRECT IMPACTS
AT THIS TIME.
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS OF THE
PREVIOUS 12-36 HOURS. AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH LOCALLY WE
SHOULD SEE SEAS COME DOWN BY ANOTHER FOOT BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT.
SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 3-5 FT...EXCEPT LOCALLY 6 FT EAST OF GEORGETOWN
THROUGH THIS EVENING WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...ALBERTO REMAINS A FLY IN THE OINTMENT THOUGH THE
LATEST FORECAST KEEPS IMPACTS FROM THE STORM EAST OF THE WATERS.
NORTHEAST FLOW MON WILL BACK TO NORTHWEST LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE
AS ALBERTO...OR WHAT REMAINS OF ALBERTO...PASSES EAST OF THE COAST.
BECAUSE THE STORM IS SO SMALL AND IN A WEAKENED STATE DO NOT EXCEPT
MUCH IF ANY INCREASE IN WINDS AS THE STORM PASSES. WINDS BACK
FURTHER TO SOUTHWEST TUE/TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO
15 KT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL RUN 3 TO 5 FT...MADE UP OF
EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL AND A NORTHEAST WIND WAVE. LATE IN THE
PERIOD NORTHEAST WIND WAVE WILL BE REPLACED BY A SOUTHERLY WIND
WAVE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...EXPECT A GENERAL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN AN
OTHERWISE ILL-DEFINED SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION FROM UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN CAROLINAS SHOULD HELP TO
PRODUCE A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER GRADIENT FLOW ON WED AND AN INCREASED
CHC OF CONVECTION...MAINLY LATE WED. THEREFORE WINDS ON WED MAY
REACH 15 KTS OUT SOUTH BUT OVERALL EXPECT WINDS 10 KTS OR
LESS...WITH GREATER ON SHORE COMPONENT IN THE AFTERNOONS DUE TO
SEA BREEZE. EXPECT WINDS TO BE DOMINATED BY LAND/SEA BREEZE
INTERACTIONS THROUGH MOST OF LATE WEEK AS RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT. SEAS
WILL BE UP TO 4 FT WED BUT WILL DIMINISH AND REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT IN
LIGHT S WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED
TONIGHT WITH THE NEW MOON. THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER TIDE GAUGE AT
DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON APPEARS TO RUN THE MOST RISK OF APPROACHING
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CRITERIA OF 5.50 FEET MLLW WITH THIS
EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. WATER LEVEL ANOMALIES ABOVE THE ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE HAVE RANGED FROM +0.4 TO +1.0 FEET OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...AND
ANYTHING GREATER THAN +0.7 FEET WOULD PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
TONIGHT FOR LOW-LYING FLOOD-PRONE REGIONS DOWNTOWN. WE ANTICIPATE
RIVER LEVELS TO REMAIN 0.1 TO 0.2 FEET BELOW THIS LEVEL AND
THEREFORE WILL NOT RAISE AN ADVISORY TONIGHT.
$$
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...31
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TRA
000
FXUS62 KMHX 202233
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
632 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL DRIFT WEST
AND REACH THE NORTHERN COAST LATER TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST IS FORECAST TO DRIFT A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORIES
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR ALBERTO. ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION MID WEEK THEN SLOWLY
SHIFT E OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 625 PM SUNDAY...COMPLEX PATTERN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS
EVENING WITH TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO SPINNING EAST OF THE GEORGIA
COAST AND COLD-CORE UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE OUTER BANKS WITH A WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION NEAR OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. WHILE EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN IN A ZONE OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN
THESE SYSTEMS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...THE PATTERN HAS CHANGED A
BIT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES HAVE BLOSSOMED OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS IN AXIS OF 300 MB DIVERGENCE AND NEAR A
500 MB SHEAR AXIS AND MOISTURE IS ADVECTING IN FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. CARRY CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT OVER ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. MADE
ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...T.S.ALBERTO WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NE ON MON THEN
ACCELERATE IN FORWARD SPEED. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONT TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS STORM. AT THIS TIME MAIN IMPACTS ALBEIT SLIGHT
SHOULD BE OVER THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS AS THE
CURRENT NHC FORECAST KEEPS THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE. MORE INSTABILITY
EXPECTED ON MON WITH CHCS FOR TSRA POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE AFTN.
SKIES CONT. MOS CLDY WITH HIGHS MAINLY MID TO UPR 70S. WINDS VEER
TO LIGHT SE IN THE AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM SUN...TS ALBERTO WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
TODAY WITH A MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS AS WELL AS NHC KEEPING THE
TRACK OF THE STORM OFFSHORE. CURRENT HPC PROGS PLACE THE STORM
APPROX 100 MI S OF CAPE FEAR AT 00Z TUE WITH THE STORM TRAVELING
NORTHEAST IN VICINITY OF THE GULF STREAM MON NIGHT/TUE
MORNING...TO APPROX 100 MI E OF CAPE HATTERAS AROUND 18Z TUE. IT
IS STILL LOOKING LIKE IMPACTS WILL PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL AREAS WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE AN ENHANCED RIP
CURRENT RISK AND INCREASED SURF FOR THE BEACHES...AND GUSTY WINDS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. MAY SEE MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES
AS WELL BUT WITH THE TRACK A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE THINK WATER
LEVEL RISES WILL PRIMARILY BE ALONG THE COAST AND NOT SO MUCH
ACROSS THE SOUNDS. STILL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO
ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS EVOLVING
SYSTEM.
STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINLY TUE AND BEYOND. A ROBUST UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES TUE AND DEVELOPS INTO ANOTHER CUTOFF
LOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT AND WED. THIS
PLACES THE REGION IN GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW ADVECTING IN AMPLE MOISTURE BRINGING SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST THU AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT
LAKES REGION BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN TO
ALLOW FOR A FEW DIURNAL STORMS. UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND
BUT MAY SEE WEAK SYSTEMS DROPPING S ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE SO WILL KEEP MINIMAL POPS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS LOOK
TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE L80S INLAND TO 70S
ALONG THE COAST AND LOWS IN THE 60S THROUGH MID WEEK BUT
THICKNESSES INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE W.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM SUNDAY...CEILINGS MAINLY IN THE MVFR RANGE CURRENTLY
AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WILL ADD SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY TO THE PGV AND ISO TAF SITES PER
LATEST RADAR AND BEST SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION IN THIS PORTION OF
THE CWA PER UPPER DIVERGENCE/SHEAR AXIS. BY LATE TONIGHT...ALL OF
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY AS
DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM SUN...TS ALBERTO PROGGED TO PASS OFFSHORE MON NIGHT
AND TUE BUT LIKELY FAR ENOUGH THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT AT THE TERMINALS. SCT MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS
EXPECTED TUE THROUGH THU AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW SETTLES TO THE W.
THE LOW LIFTS N THU WITH RIDGING BUILDING TO THE W DEFLECTING
STORMS TO THE N BUT COULD SEE AN ISOL SHOWER OR STORM. PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING OF THE EXTENDED AS WELL.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM SUNDAY...WINDS GENERALLY NW OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
WATERS AND NE ELSEWHERE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. INCREASED SWELL ENERGY
BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO EAST OF GEORGIA AND ANOTHER LOW TO
THE NORTH OF THE OUTER BANKS IS KEEPING SEAS IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT
RANGE. WILL MONITOR TRENDS...BUT MAY NEED TO EXTENT THE SMALL
CRAFT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS IN MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUN...TS ALBERTO WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE FEATURE FOR
THE BEGINNING PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. LATEST NHC TRACK HAS TS
ALBERTO APPROX 100 MI S OF CAPE FEAR AT 00Z TUE WITH THE STORM
TRAVELING NORTHEAST IN VICINITY OF THE GULF STREAM MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING...TO APPROX 100 MI E OF CAPE HATTERAS AROUND 18Z
TUE. WHILE MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK...THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM AND MARINERS ARE
URGED CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM.
EXPECT GREATEST IMPACTS TO OCCUR LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE WITH
WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING MINIMAL TS STRENGTH ACROSS THE OUTER
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO CAPE HATTERS.
OPERATIONAL WAVEWATCH HAS HIGHEST SEAS AROUND 6 FT PEAKING ON TUE
BUT COULD SEE UP TO 10 FT SEAS AS PROGGED BY HURRICANE WAVEWATCH.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY
WED...FROM S TO N. AT THIS TIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH PREDOMINATE S/SW FLOW
AOB 15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK
000
FXUS62 KMHX 202045
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
445 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL DRIFT WEST
AND REACH THE NORTHERN COAST TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
LIFT NORTH MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST IS FORECAST TO DRIFT A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR ALBERTO. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION MID WEEK THEN SLOWLY SHIFT E
OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...TS ALBERTO WILL REMAIN WELL S WITH NO IMPACT
ACROSS ERN NC IN THE NEAR TERM. A COLD CORE LOW WILL MOVE JUST N
OF THE AREA AND DIMINISH. LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL CONT TO INCR ACRS
WITH SCT SHRA AND PTCHY FOG. MINS WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
LWR 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...T.S.ALBERTO WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NE ON MON THEN
ACCELERATE IN FORWARD SPEED. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONT TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS STORM. AT THIS TIME MAIN IMPACTS ALBEIT SLIGHT
SHOULD BE OVER THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS AS THE
CURRENT NHC FORECAST KEEPS THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE. MORE INSTABILITY
EXPECTED ON MON WITH CHCS FOR TSRA POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE AFTN.
SKIES CONT. MOS CLDY WITH HIGHS MAINLY MID TO UPR 70S. WINDS VEER
TO LIGHT SE IN THE AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM SUN...TS ALBERTO WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
TODAY WITH A MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS AS WELL AS NHC KEEPING THE
TRACK OF THE STORM OFFSHORE. CURRENT HPC PROGS PLACE THE STORM
APPROX 100 MI S OF CAPE FEAR AT 00Z TUE WITH THE STORM TRAVELING
NORTHEAST IN VICINITY OF THE GULF STREAM MON NIGHT/TUE
MORNING...TO APPROX 100 MI E OF CAPE HATTERAS AROUND 18Z TUE. IT
IS STILL LOOKING LIKE IMPACTS WILL PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL AREAS WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE AN ENHANCED RIP
CURRENT RISK AND INCREASED SURF FOR THE BEACHES...AND GUSTY WINDS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. MAY SEE MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES
AS WELL BUT WITH THE TRACK A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE THINK WATER
LEVEL RISES WILL PRIMARILY BE ALONG THE COAST AND NOT SO MUCH
ACROSS THE SOUNDS. STILL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO
ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS EVOLVING
SYSTEM.
STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINLY TUE AND BEYOND. A ROBUST UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES TUE AND DEVELOPS INTO ANOTHER CUTOFF
LOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT AND WED. THIS
PLACES THE REGION IN GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW ADVECTING IN AMPLE MOISTURE BRINGING SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST THU AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT
LAKES REGION BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN TO
ALLOW FOR A FEW DIURNAL STORMS. UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND
BUT MAY SEE WEAK SYSTEMS DROPPING S ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE SO WILL KEEP MINIMAL POPS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS LOOK
TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE L80S INLAND TO 70S
ALONG THE COAST AND LOWS IN THE 60S THROUGH MID WEEK BUT
THICKNESSES INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE W.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...SCU COVERS AREA WITH MVFR CIGS ALL TAF SITES. IFR
CIGS RPTD ACRS OBX AREA. CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LVL MOISTURE INCREASES. OVERALL PRECIP THREAT
INLAND LOOKS LIMITED SO NO MENTION IN TAFS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM SUN...TS ALBERTO PROGGED TO PASS OFFSHORE MON NIGHT
AND TUE BUT LIKELY FAR ENOUGH THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT AT THE TERMINALS. SCT MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS
EXPECTED TUE THROUGH THU AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW SETTLES TO THE W.
THE LOW LIFTS N THU WITH RIDGING BUILDING TO THE W DEFLECTING
STORMS TO THE N BUT COULD SEE AN ISOL SHOWER OR STORM. PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING OF THE EXTENDED AS WELL.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...LIGHT NLY WINDS ARND 10 KT ACROSS THE COASTAL
THIS AFTN. SEAS WILL CONT 5 TO 8 FEET ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL
WATERS AND 3-6 FT ACROSS THE S. SCA CONDS WILL CONT FOR SEAS ACRS
THE NRN AND CNTRL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT E TO
NE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY WITH SEAS IN THE 2-5
FT RANGE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUN...TS ALBERTO WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE FEATURE FOR
THE BEGINNING PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. LATEST NHC TRACK HAS TS
ALBERTO APPROX 100 MI S OF CAPE FEAR AT 00Z TUE WITH THE STORM
TRAVELING NORTHEAST IN VICINITY OF THE GULF STREAM MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING...TO APPROX 100 MI E OF CAPE HATTERAS AROUND 18Z
TUE. WHILE MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK...THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM AND MARINERS ARE
URGED CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM.
EXPECT GREATEST IMPACTS TO OCCUR LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE WITH
WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING MINIMAL TS STRENGTH ACROSS THE OUTER
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO CAPE HATTERS.
OPERATIONAL WAVEWATCH HAS HIGHEST SEAS AROUND 6 FT PEAKING ON TUE
BUT COULD SEE UP TO 10 FT SEAS AS PROGGED BY HURRICANE WAVEWATCH.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY
WED...FROM S TO N. AT THIS TIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH PREDOMINATE S/SW FLOW
AOB 15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JAC/SK
MARINE...JAC/SK
000
FXUS62 KMHX 201929
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
329 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL DRIFT WEST
AND REACH THE NORTHERN COAST TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
LIFT NORTH MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST IS FORECAST OT DRIFT A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER FOR ALBERTO. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE REGION MID WEEK THEN SLOWLY SHIFT E OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...TS ALBERTO WILL REMAIN WELL S WITH NO IMPACT
ACROSS ERN NC IN THE NEAR TERM. A COLD CORE LOW WILL MOVE JUST N
OF THE AREA AND DIMINISH. LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL CONT TO INCR ACRS
WITH SCT SHRA AND PTCHY FOG. MINS WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
LWR 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...T.S.ALBERTO WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NE ON MON THEN
ACCELERATE IN FORWARD SPEED. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONT TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS STORM. AT THIS TIME MAIN IMPACTS ALBEIT SLIGHT
SHOULD BE OVER THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS AS THE
CURRENT NHC FORECAST KEEPS THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE. MORE INSTABILITY
EXPECTED ON MON WITH CHCS FOR TSRA POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE AFTN.
SKIES CONT. MOS CLDY WITH HIGHS MAINLY MID TO UPR 70S. WINDS VEER
TO LIGHT SE IN THE AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 545 AM SUN...TS ALBERTO WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
EVENTUAL TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT CONTINUED TO
FOLLOW THE LATEST NHC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THIS
PACKAGE. LATEST NHC TRACK HAS TS ALBERTO MOVING ALONG THE SC
COAST MON...THEN UP AND ALONG THE NC COAST TUE AND TUE NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME BASED ON LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE...IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE
LIKELY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS. BASED ON CURRENT
TRACK/INTENSITY MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES WILL BE POSSIBLE...AN
ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE BEACHES...AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. AGAIN SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS EVOLVING SYSTEM.
DID NOT MAKE SIG CHANGES BEYOND WED. ONCE AGAIN MODELS DEVELOP
AN UPPER CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SE OR OFFSHORE AND ITS PLACEMENT
WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW UNSETTLED IT WILL REMAIN ACROSS ERN NC
WED-SAT. GENERALLY FOLLOWING HPC/ECMWF GUIDANCE WITH THE UPPER LOW
NEAR THE AREA AND WILL KEEP SLT CHC TO CHC POPS EACH DAY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED BUT IF THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS A BIT FARTHER
OFFSHORE...AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS...POPS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER WITH
UPPER RIDGING ALOFT. FOR THE MOST PART TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR
SEASONABLE NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE L80S INLAND TO 70S ALONG THE
COAST AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...SCU COVERS AREA WITH MVFR CIGS ALL TAF SITES. IFR
CIGS RPTD ACRS OBX AREA. CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LVL MOISTURE INCREASES. OVERALL PRECIP THREAT
INLAND LOOKS LIMITED SO NO MENTION IN TAFS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH TS ALBERTO PASSING WELL
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN WED INTO THU
WITH SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...LIGHT NLY WINDS ARND 10 KT ACROSS THE COASTAL
THIS AFTN. SEAS WILL CONT 5 TO 8 FEET ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL
WATERS AND 3-6 FT ACROSS THE S. SCA CONDS WILL CONT FOR SEAS ACRS
THE NRN AND CNTRL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT E TO
NE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY WITH SEAS IN THE 2-5
FT RANGE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 545 AM SUN...TS
ALBERTO WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE FEATURE FOR THE BEGINNING PERIOD
OF THE FORECAST. LATEST NHC TRACK HAS TS ALBERTO MOVING ALONG THE
SC COAST MON...THEN MOVING NE OFF THE NC COAST TUE INTO TUE
EVENING. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING EVENTUAL EVOLUTION AND
INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM...DUE TO CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES.
CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THE LATEST NHC TRACK FOR FORECAST PACKAGE.
FOLLOWING THE LATEST TRACK TS FORCE WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. WENT CLOSER TO SWAN FOR SEAS...PEAKING AT
5-7FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND MARINERS ARE URGED CLOSELY
MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON
OUR COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY
WED...FROM S TO N. AT THIS TIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH PREDOMINATE S/SW FLOW
AOB 15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JAC/CQD
MARINE...JAC/CQD
000
FXUS62 KILM 201913
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
313 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE AS IT MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE CAPE FEAR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. A
LINGERING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD BRING SOME SLIGHTLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WARM AND HUMID WEATHER
IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WE HAVE A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WITH TWO
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEAL WITH AT THE SURFACE AND A BAGGY
UPPER LOW ALOFT. TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS NEARLY STATIONARY EAST
OF THE GEORGIA COASTLINE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD MOVE VERY
LITTLE TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
IN THE FACE OF COOL DRY AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM. ALTHOUGH OPERATIONAL MODELS FED BY
SATELLITE SOUNDER DATA HAVE INITIALIZED WITH ALBERTO AS A WARM
CORE SYSTEM IT`S STILL COLDER AT 500 MB (-12 C) OVER THE STORM
THAN ALONG THE PERIPHERY...A FACTOR THAT IS PROBABLY HELPING
MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY DESPITE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
CONDITIONS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND ON THE OCEAN SURFACE. A NON-
TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST HAS FED
ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN AN INDIRECT MANNER INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EXPANDING
AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING WILMINGTON... ELIZABETHTOWN
AND WHITEVILLE. THIS CLOUD MASS SHOULD GROW THIS EVENING AND MAY
COVER A GOOD DEAL EASTERN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA BY MIDNIGHT.
SHOWER CHANCES WILL HINGE ON HOW MUCH SOUTHEAST FLOW CAN DEVELOP
FROM 925-700 MB TO PUSH ATLANTIC CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ONSHORE. ONCE
SEPARATED FROM THE RELATIVELY WARM MARINE ENVIRONMENT THESE SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY DECAY...SO OUR POPS TONIGHT RANGE FROM 40S OFFSHORE...TO
30 PERCENT AT THE COAST...TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL
TONIGHT...WITH 61-63 DEGREES EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR
AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE PEE DEE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE FORECAST HINGES
UPON THE LOCATION AND CONDITION OF ALBERTO. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE TRACK OF THE STORM CONTINUES WITH THE LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK
KEEPING ALBERTO WELL OFF CAPE FEAR WITH NO IMPACT ON THE FORECAST
AREA. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STORM MAY NOT SURVIVE
BEYOND 24 HOURS...A POSSIBILITY GIVEN ITS LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR
APPEARANCE. EITHER WAY THE IMPACT ON THE AREA WILL BE LITTLE IF
ANY...LEAVING THE BROAD UPPER IN PLACE MON...ONLY TO BE REPLACED
BY ANOTHER 5H TROUGH TUE. THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH AXIS MON AND
TUE SUGGESTS TUE COULD BE THE MORE ACTIVE DAY OF THE TWO. ON TUE
THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW. COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND SEABREEZE WILL
PROVIDE SOME LIFT...ALONG WITH INSTABILITY FROM DIURNAL
HEATING...WHILE ALOFT DIVERGENT FLOW AND SHORTWAVE WILL ADD SOME
ENHANCEMENT. THINK BOTH DAYS WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION IN THE
AREA...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS TUE. NORTHEAST FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS
MON NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO...COOLEST ALONG THE NC COAST.
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS EXPECTED TUE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOWS BOTH NIGHT WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE CLIMO WITH THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW...DEVELOPING LATE MON NIGHT KEEPING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...AN ILL-DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IN THE MID
TO UPPER LEVELS...AN H5 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE CAROLINAS ON WED AND
THEN LIFTS OFF SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRI AS RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY A REFLECTION OF
UPPER LOW WILL PRODUCE A WEAK LOW AT THE SFC WHICH MAY INTERACT
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT DOES NOT QUITE MAKE IT PAST VIRGINIA.
THIS MAY ALSO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR LOCALIZED CONVECTION OVER THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS ON WED AND COULD BE AN ACTIVE DAY OF SHWRS/TSTMS
ON WED. THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL BE WEAK AS SFC PRESSURE PATTERN
REMAINS WEAKER AND WINDS WILL BE DRIVEN MORE BY LAND/SEA BREEZE
WED THROUGH SAT. THEREFORE LOOKS LIKE THE WEATHER WILL BE MORE
LOCALIZED ALONG SEA BREEZE OR ANY OTHER MESO BOUNDARIES. LOCAL
AREA MAY BE IN SUBSIDENCE ON BACK END OF LOW AS IT LIFTS OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AS EARLY AS THURS DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW
LIFTS AWAY. THEN RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE EXPECT BEST CHC OF PCP ON WED AND DECREASING CHC
THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM CANADA MAY PUSH A
COLD FRONT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...BUT RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND
THEREFORE MAY NOT SEE MUCH FROM THIS FRONT MORE THAN AN INCREASE
IN NORTHERLY WINDS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEPT TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER ON WED WITH UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR WEST AND
INCREASED CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP. OVERALL EXPECT TEMP REACHING ABOVE
NORMAL AS HEIGHTS RISE AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...TS ALBERTO IS WELL SOUTH OF MYR MOVING SOUTHWEST WITH
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS DRIFTING WEST.
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS ARE SHOWING EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF ILM ADVECTING SOUTHWEST IN THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. LOW LEVEL VFR CEILINGS SHOULD DEVELOP AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS COULD DROP TO THE HIGH MVFR RANGE AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT ILM.
SFC WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVENING. CEILINGS HEIGHTS
DURING THE EVENING WILL BE LOWERING TO MVFR ESPECIALLY AT ILM. IFR
CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT INITIALLY AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...THEN THE FLO/LBT TERMINALS LATER. SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LOWEST VISIBILITIES OCCURRING AT
THE FLO/LBT TERMINALS. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST BY
09Z BUT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY OFFSHORE.
CEILINGS LIFT TO MVFR BY SUNRISE AS RAIN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
LIKELY ALONG THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY INDICATE VCSH
SINCE THE TRACK OF TS ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO OFFSHORE WITH DRY AIR
IN THE MID-LEVELS LIKELY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TRACK.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/TEMPO
IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE IMPACTING THE
WEATHER ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. ONE IS TROPICAL
STORM ALBERTO WHICH IS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST EAST OF THE GEORGIA
COAST. THE SECOND IS A NON-TROPICAL LOW EAST OF THE VIRGINIA
COASTLINE. A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF BOTH LOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING
10-15 KNOTS. ALBERTO REMAINS TOO FAR AWAY FOR ANY DIRECT IMPACTS
AT THIS TIME.
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS OF THE
PREVIOUS 12-36 HOURS. AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH LOCALLY WE
SHOULD SEE SEAS COME DOWN BY ANOTHER FOOT BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT.
SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 3-5 FT...EXCEPT LOCALLY 6 FT EAST OF GEORGETOWN
THROUGH THIS EVENING WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...ALBERTO REMAINS A FLY IN THE OINTMENT THOUGH THE
LATEST FORECAST KEEPS IMPACTS FROM THE STORM EAST OF THE WATERS.
NORTHEAST FLOW MON WILL BACK TO NORTHWEST LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE
AS ALBERTO...OR WHAT REMAINS OF ALBERTO...PASSES EAST OF THE COAST.
BECAUSE THE STORM IS SO SMALL AND IN A WEAKENED STATE DO NOT EXCEPT
MUCH IF ANY INCREASE IN WINDS AS THE STORM PASSES. WINDS BACK
FURTHER TO SOUTHWEST TUE/TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO
15 KT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL RUN 3 TO 5 FT...MADE UP OF
EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL AND A NORTHEAST WIND WAVE. LATE IN THE
PERIOD NORTHEAST WIND WAVE WILL BE REPLACED BY A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...EXPECT A GENERAL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN AN
OTHERWISE ILL-DEFINED SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION FROM UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN CAROLINAS SHOULD HELP TO
PRODUCE A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER GRADIENT FLOW ON WED AND AN INCREASED
CHC OF CONVECTION...MAINLY LATE WED. THEREFORE WINDS ON WED MAY
REACH 15 KTS OUT SOUTH BUT OVERALL EXPECT WINDS 10 KTS OR
LESS...WITH GREATER ON SHORE COMPONENT IN THE AFTERNOONS DUE TO
SEA BREEZE. EXPECT WINDS TO BE DOMINATED BY LAND/SEA BREEZE
INTERACTIONS THROUGH MOST OF LATE WEEK AS RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT. SEAS
WILL BE UP TO 4 FT WED BUT WILL DIMINISH AND REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT IN
LIGHT S WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED
TONIGHT WITH THE NEW MOON. THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER TIDE GAUGE AT
DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON APPEARS TO RUN THE MOST RISK OF APPROACHING
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CRITERIA OF 5.50 FEET MLLW WITH THIS
EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. WATER LEVEL ANOMALIES ABOVE THE ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE HAVE RANGED FROM +0.4 TO +1.0 FEET OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...AND
ANYTHING GREATER THAN +0.7 FEET WOULD PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
TONIGHT FOR LOW-LYING FLOOD-PRONE REGIONS DOWNTOWN. WE ANTICIPATE
RIVER LEVELS TO REMAIN 0.1 TO 0.2 FEET BELOW THIS LEVEL AND
THEREFORE WILL NOT RAISE AN ADVISORY TONIGHT.
$$
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TRA
000
FXUS62 KRAH 201843
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
245 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFFSHORE INTO MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
NORTHEAST... AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY....
CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA DRIFTS
WEST TOWARDS THE COAST. DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL BE GRADUALLY
MOISTENING...BUT THERE WILL BE ONLY VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC FORCING...
AND CORRESPONDING POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY LIGHT RAIN IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CWFA OVERNIGHT. NO MORE THAN A CHANCE POP. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL MAINTAIN MILD TEMPS...WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S.
THE NORTHERN SURFACE LOW WEAKENS WITH BROAD WEAK TROFFING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FOR TS ALBERTO KEEPS THE
SYSTEM OFF THE COAST WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS CONFINED TO COASTAL
AREAS. FORCING IS HARD TO FIND...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE. WITH THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND HIGHS DAMPENED
BY CLOUDINESS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY TOPPING OUT AROUND 50 PERCENT IN THE FAR EAST. HIGHS WILL
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MOIST AIRMASS AND GENERAL
TROFFINESS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID
LEVEL TROF... MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
MINS AGAIN REMAIN MILD...IN THE LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...
MODELS GENERALLY ARE COMING INTO EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING
OF THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER IN BOTH
DEPTH (STRONGEST SOLUTION)... AND TIMING (SLOWEST SOLUTION) WITH THE
SYSTEMS DEPARTURE LATE WED AND WED NIGHT. WE WILL GENERALLY KEEP OUR
CURRENT FORECAST INTACT WITH THE HIGHEST POP (LIKELY) BEGINNING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST... AND SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE REST
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF NC LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST REPRESENTATIVE
OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTION ALONG WITH A WHOLE HOST OF THE EC
ENSEMBLES. THIS WOULD BRING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THEN PUSHING THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT SLOWLY EAST
INTO THE CENTER OF THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE... WE WILL MAINTAIN RATHER HIGH POPS WED AND WED EVENING.
QPF LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.50 TO LOCALLY 1.00 INCH STORM
AREAL STORM TOTAL AVERAGE TUE-WED NIGHT.
THE CLOUDINESS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO
LOWER MAXES IN THE WEST TUE AFTERNOON AND OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT READINGS A CATEGORY OR TWO LOWER THAN THE GFS MOS IN THESE
SPECIFIC AREAS BOTH DAYS. HIGHS 80-88 NW TO S TUESDAY... THEN 80-85
WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...
A GENERAL TREND TOWARD RISING HEIGHTS WITH THE CORE OF THE HEIGHT
RISES EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A DRYING AND WARMING TREND. WE WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SOME MODELS INDICATE A
LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY (RESIDUAL COLD FRONT) OVER CENTRAL OR
EASTERN NC INTO FRIDAY. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD BEGIN TO LIMIT
STORM COVERAGE. THEN... A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME COOLING
STORMS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES IF IT IS ABLE TO SLIP DOWN THIS
FAR SAT-SUN. OTHERWISE... MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY BY SAT-SUN WITH
LOWS IN THE 64-69 RANGE AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...
STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW
OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA MOVES WEST NEARER THE COAST. INITIALLY
BROKEN VFR CLOUDS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING FROM THE NORTHEAST AS WE
COOL DOWN...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 00Z IN RWI AREA...AND TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT AT TAF POINTS WEST. A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED IN
THE 09-13Z TIME FRAME AT RWI...AND CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PREDAWN
PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT RDU AND FAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT LEAVING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND CEILINGS WILL
CLIMB TO VFR AT GSO AND INT IN THE MID MORNING...MORE TOWARDS MID
DAY AT RDU/FAY/RWI.
FOR THE LONG TERM...A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK
AND INLAND IMPACTS OF TS ALBERTO...BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
TAKES ALBERTO NORTHEAST OFF THE NC COAST ON TUESDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR MONDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE AREA SLOWLY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST PROVIDE CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH
SCATTERED MAINLY LATE DAY CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY.
&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...MLM
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...MLM
000
FXUS62 KRAH 201826
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFFSHORE INTO MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
NORTHEAST... AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY....
CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA DRIFTS
WEST TOWARDS THE COAST. DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL BE GRADUALLY
MOISTENING...BUT THERE WILL BE ONLY VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC FORCING...
AND CORRESPONDING POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY LIGHT RAIN IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CWFA OVERNIGHT. NO MORE THAN A CHANCE POP. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL MAINTAIN MILD TEMPS...WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S.
THE NORTHERN SURFACE LOW WEAKENS WITH BROAD WEAK TROFFING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FOR TS ALBERTO KEEPS THE
SYSTEM OFF THE COAST WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS CONFINED TO COASTAL
AREAS. FORCING IS HARD TO FIND...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE. WITH THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND HIGHS DAMPENED
BY CLOUDINESS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY TOPPING OUT AROUND 50 PERCENT IN THE FAR EAST. HIGHS WILL
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MOIST AIRMASS AND GENERAL
TROFFINESS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID
LEVEL TROF... MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
MINS AGAIN REMAIN MILD...IN THE LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...
MODELS GENERALLY ARE COMING INTO EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING
OF THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER IN BOTH
DEPTH (STRONGEST SOLUTION)... AND TIMING (SLOWEST SOLUTION) WITH THE
SYSTEMS DEPARTURE LATE WED AND WED NIGHT. WE WILL GENERALLY KEEP OUR
CURRENT FORECAST INTACT WITH THE HIGHEST POP (LIKELY) BEGINNING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST... AND SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE REST
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF NC LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST REPRESENTATIVE
OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTION ALONG WITH A WHOLE HOST OF THE EC
ENSEMBLES. THIS WOULD BRING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THEN PUSHING THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT SLOWLY EAST
INTO THE CENTER OF THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE... WE WILL MAINTAIN RATHER HIGH POPS WED AND WED EVENING.
QPF LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.50 TO LOCALLY 1.00 INCH STORM
AREAL STORM TOTAL AVERAGE TUE-WED NIGHT.
THE CLOUDINESS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO
LOWER MAXES IN THE WEST TUE AFTERNOON AND OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT READINGS A CATEGORY OR TWO LOWER THAN THE GFS MOS IN THESE
SPECIFIC AREAS BOTH DAYS. HIGHS 80-88 NW TO S TUESDAY... THEN 80-85
WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...
A GENERAL TREND TOWARD RISING HEIGHTS WITH THE CORE OF THE HEIGHT
RISES EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A DRYING AND WARMING TREND. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT MAY BRING SOME COOLING STORMS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES IF
IT IS ABLE TO SLIP DOWN THIS FAR SAT-SUN. OTHERWISE... MOSTLY
CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH LOWS IN THE 64-69 RANGE AND HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TO AROUND 90.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...
STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW
OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA MOVES WEST NEARER THE COAST. INITIALLY
BROKEN VFR CLOUDS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING FROM THE NORTHEAST AS WE
COOL DOWN...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 00Z IN RWI AREA...AND TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT AT TAF POINTS WEST. A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED IN
THE 09-13Z TIME FRAME AT RWI...AND CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PREDAWN
PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT RDU AND FAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT LEAVING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND CEILINGS WILL
CLIMB TO VFR AT GSO AND INT IN THE MID MORNING...MORE TOWARDS MID
DAY AT RDU/FAY/RWI.
FOR THE LONG TERM...A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK
AND INLAND IMPACTS OF TS ALBERTO...BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
TAKES ALBERTO NORTHEAST OFF THE NC COAST ON TUESDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR MONDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE AREA SLOWLY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST PROVIDE CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH
SCATTERED MAINLY LATE DAY CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY.
&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...MLM
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...MLM
000
FXUS62 KRAH 201820
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
220 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFFSHORE INTO MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
NORTHEAST... AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM SUNDAY....
THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS IS RATHER COMPLICATED DUE
TO THE INTERACTION OF TS ALBERTO OFF THE SC COAST....A WEAK SURFACE
LOW OFF THE VA COAST....AND A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST COAST.
THE CURRENT OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK FOR TS ALBERTO SHOWS THE
STORM MEANDERING SOUTH TODAY AND THEN MOVING BACK TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND PASSING BY THE NC COAST LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME...THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE VA COAST IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE OUTER BANKS TODAY AS
SEVERAL VORT CENTERS WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW. THIS WILL BRING SOME WEAK FORCING INTO NORTHEAST NC THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL IS RATHER DRY WITH PW
VALUES AROUND 0.6" AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S. THE STRONGEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS INSTEAD FORECAST TO BE FROM THE DELMARVA NORTH
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THUS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK LOW AND SOME SHALLOW ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS EVENING...SPREADING
WESTWARD OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT
AND POPS WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE. GUIDANCE
IS MOSTLY WARMER FOR TODAY THAN ON SATURDAY AS 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES INCH UP ABOUT 5M TO 1385M. INCREASING CLOUD COVER IN
THE EAST LATE IN THE DAY SHOULD CREATE A GRADIENT WITH LOWER 80S
WEST TO UPPER 70S EAST. TONIGHT...LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
AS DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO CREEP UP...PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST. MID 50S
WEST TO LOWER 60S EAST.
THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO HINGE MORE ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF TS ALBERTO. WHILE NO DIRECT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
INLAND AT THIS TIME...WARM MOIST ADVECTION OFF THE ATLANTIC AND THE
PRESENCE OF AN 850MB TROUGH SHIFTING INLAND SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS. WIND FIELDS WILL BE WEAK BETWEEN
THE UPPER LOW AND A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...BUT PW WILL
INCREASE BACK TO 1.25" OR GREATER AND MODELS SHOW AROUND 500 J/KG IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NC OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING THE OHIO VALLEY LATE MONDAY....BUT BASED ON CURRENT
PROJECTIONS THAT CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP TO LATE IN THE DAY TO REACH
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
IN THE FORECAST...POPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FOR 20 WEST TO 40 EAST.
THICKNESSES AGAIN RISE OVER SUNDAY...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD HIGHS
BACK SLIGHTLY AND LOWER 80S SOUTHWEST TO UPPER 70S NORTHEAST ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...
MODELS GENERALLY ARE COMING INTO EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING
OF THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER IN BOTH
DEPTH (STRONGEST SOLUTION)... AND TIMING (SLOWEST SOLUTION) WITH THE
SYSTEMS DEPARTURE LATE WED AND WED NIGHT. WE WILL GENERALLY KEEP OUR
CURRENT FORECAST INTACT WITH THE HIGHEST POP (LIKELY) BEGINNING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST... AND SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE REST
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF NC LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST REPRESENTATIVE
OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTION ALONG WITH A WHOLE HOST OF THE EC
ENSEMBLES. THIS WOULD BRING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THEN PUSHING THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT SLOWLY EAST
INTO THE CENTER OF THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE... WE WILL MAINTAIN RATHER HIGH POPS WED AND WED EVENING.
QPF LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.50 TO LOCALLY 1.00 INCH STORM
AREAL STORM TOTAL AVERAGE TUE-WED NIGHT.
THE CLOUDINESS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO
LOWER MAXES IN THE WEST TUE AFTERNOON AND OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT READINGS A CATEGORY OR TWO LOWER THAN THE GFS MOS IN THESE
SPECIFIC AREAS BOTH DAYS. HIGHS 80-88 NW TO S TUESDAY... THEN 80-85
WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM SUNDAY...
A GENERAL TREND TOWARD RISING HEIGHTS WITH THE CORE OF THE HEIGHT
RISES EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A DRYING AND WARMING TREND. WE WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SOME MODELS INDICATE A
LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY (RESIDUAL COLD FRONT) OVER CENTRAL OR
EASTERN NC INTO FRIDAY. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD BEGIN TO LIMIT
STORM COVERAGE. THEN... A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME COOLING
STORMS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES IF IT IS ABLE TO SLIP DOWN THIS
FAR SAT-SUN. OTHERWISE... MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY BY SAT-SUN WITH
LOWS IN THE 64-69 RANGE AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH TROPICAL STORM
ALBERTO OFF THE SC COAST AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VA COAST.
THE LOW OFF THE VA COAST IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE OUTER BANKS THIS EVENING...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN NC. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO
GET A HANDLE ON THE STORM SYSTEMS OFFSHORE AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS SOMEWHAT LOW DUE TO THIS. THE PROBABILITY OF LOW STRATUS...AND
EVEN A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN...WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY AFTER 21Z ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS AT KRWI. THE STRATUS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST
OVERNIGHT...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING CEILINGS BETWEEN 1-2K
FT. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE STRATUS WILL NOT MAKE IT ALL
THE WAY TO KGSO AND KINT...AND VFR CONDITIONS COUPLE PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
FOR THE LONG TERM...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE TRACK AND INLAND IMPACT OF TS ALBERTO...BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK BRINGS IT ALONG THE NC COAST ON TUESDAY. MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK
AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER/LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...SMITH
000
FXUS62 KRAH 201740
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFFSHORE INTO MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
NORTHEAST... AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM SUNDAY....
THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS IS RATHER COMPLICATED DUE
TO THE INTERACTION OF TS ALBERTO OFF THE SC COAST....A WEAK SURFACE
LOW OFF THE VA COAST....AND A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST COAST.
THE CURRENT OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK FOR TS ALBERTO SHOWS THE
STORM MEANDERING SOUTH TODAY AND THEN MOVING BACK TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND PASSING BY THE NC COAST LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME...THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE VA COAST IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE OUTER BANKS TODAY AS
SEVERAL VORT CENTERS WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW. THIS WILL BRING SOME WEAK FORCING INTO NORTHEAST NC THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL IS RATHER DRY WITH PW
VALUES AROUND 0.6" AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S. THE STRONGEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS INSTEAD FORECAST TO BE FROM THE DELMARVA NORTH
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THUS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK LOW AND SOME SHALLOW ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS EVENING...SPREADING
WESTWARD OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT
AND POPS WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE. GUIDANCE
IS MOSTLY WARMER FOR TODAY THAN ON SATURDAY AS 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES INCH UP ABOUT 5M TO 1385M. INCREASING CLOUD COVER IN
THE EAST LATE IN THE DAY SHOULD CREATE A GRADIENT WITH LOWER 80S
WEST TO UPPER 70S EAST. TONIGHT...LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
AS DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO CREEP UP...PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST. MID 50S
WEST TO LOWER 60S EAST.
THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO HINGE MORE ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF TS ALBERTO. WHILE NO DIRECT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
INLAND AT THIS TIME...WARM MOIST ADVECTION OFF THE ATLANTIC AND THE
PRESENCE OF AN 850MB TROUGH SHIFTING INLAND SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS. WIND FIELDS WILL BE WEAK BETWEEN
THE UPPER LOW AND A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...BUT PW WILL
INCREASE BACK TO 1.25" OR GREATER AND MODELS SHOW AROUND 500 J/KG IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NC OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING THE OHIO VALLEY LATE MONDAY....BUT BASED ON CURRENT
PROJECTIONS THAT CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP TO LATE IN THE DAY TO REACH
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
IN THE FORECAST...POPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FOR 20 WEST TO 40 EAST.
THICKNESSES AGAIN RISE OVER SUNDAY...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD HIGHS
BACK SLIGHTLY AND LOWER 80S SOUTHWEST TO UPPER 70S NORTHEAST ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...
MODELS GENERALLY ARE COMING INTO EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING
OF THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER IN BOTH
DEPTH (STRONGEST SOLUTION)... AND TIMING (SLOWEST SOLUTION) WITH THE
SYSTEMS DEPARTURE LATE WED AND WED NIGHT. WE WILL GENERALLY KEEP OUR
CURRENT FORECAST INTACT WITH THE HIGHEST POP (LIKELY) BEGINNING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST... AND SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE REST
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF NC LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST REPRESENTATIVE
OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTION ALONG WITH A WHOLE HOST OF THE EC
ENSEMBLES. THIS WOULD BRING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THEN PUSHING THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT SLOWLY EAST
INTO THE CENTER OF THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE... WE WILL MAINTAIN RATHER HIGH POPS WED AND WED EVENING.
QPF LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.50 TO LOCALLY 1.00 INCH STORM
AREAL STORM TOTAL AVERAGE TUE-WED NIGHT.
THE CLOUDINESS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO
LOWER MAXES IN THE WEST TUE AFTERNOON AND OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT READINGS A CATEGORY OR TWO LOWER THAN THE GFS MOS IN THESE
SPECIFIC AREAS BOTH DAYS. HIGHS 80-88 NW TO S TUESDAY... THEN 80-85
WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...
A GENERAL TREND TOWARD RISING HEIGHTS WITH THE CORE OF THE HEIGHT
RISES EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A DRYING AND WARMING TREND. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT MAY BRING SOME COOLING STORMS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES IF
IT IS ABLE TO SLIP DOWN THIS FAR SAT-SUN. OTHERWISE... MOSTLY
CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH LOWS IN THE 64-69 RANGE AND HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TO AROUND 90.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH TROPICAL STORM
ALBERTO OFF THE SC COAST AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VA COAST.
THE LOW OFF THE VA COAST IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE OUTER BANKS THIS EVENING...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN NC. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO
GET A HANDLE ON THE STORM SYSTEMS OFFSHORE AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS SOMEWHAT LOW DUE TO THIS. THE PROBABILITY OF LOW STRATUS...AND
EVEN A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN...WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY AFTER 21Z ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS AT KRWI. THE STRATUS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST
OVERNIGHT...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING CEILINGS BETWEEN 1-2K
FT. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE STRATUS WILL NOT MAKE IT ALL
THE WAY TO KGSO AND KINT...AND VFR CONDITIONS COUPLE PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
FOR THE LONG TERM...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE TRACK AND INLAND IMPACT OF TS ALBERTO...BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK BRINGS IT ALONG THE NC COAST ON TUESDAY. MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK
AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER/LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...SMITH
000
FXUS62 KILM 201727
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
127 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE AS IT MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE CAPE FEAR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. A
LINGERING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD BRING SOME SLIGHTLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WARM AND HUMID WEATHER
IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE OTHER THAN TO ADJUST HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A DEGREE
OR TWO IN SPOTS BASED ON CLOUD COVERAGE AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1030 AM FOLLOWS...
VERY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR COVERS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MULTIPLE
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST PULLING A NORTH TO
NORTHEAST STREAM DOWN FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEWPOINTS BEFORE
DAYBREAK FELL DEEP INTO THE 40S FOR MANY AREAS...AND CLEAR SKIES
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE INTO THE 40S IN SOME LOCATIONS AS
WELL. TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO LOCATED EAST OF SAVANNAH GA IS NOT
DOING WELL AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE COOL DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE
STORM`S CIRCULATION FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THE CIRCULATION CENTER
IS EXPOSED WHICH ARGUES FOR LITTLE STRENGTHENING EXPECTED AT LEAST
IN THE NEAR-TERM. SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE PINWHEELING AROUND A SECOND
LOW OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST HAS MOVED SOUTH INTO THE CAPE FEAR REGION
FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING. THIS MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
SOUTH AND WEST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS...TURNING SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY ALL THE WAY BACK TO I-95 BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHERE SKIES ARE
CLOUDIEST NEAR THE COAST THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND WE HAVE MADE SMALL DOWNWARD EDITS FOR WILMINGTON
AND BURGAW`S HIGH TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT OF THE CLOUDINESS. HIGHS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS...WITH MID TO UPPER
70S NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE GREATER CAPE FEAR REGION.
DRY AIR APPEARS TO ALSO HAVE KILLED OUR CHANCES FOR RAIN AT LEAST
FOR TODAY. WE HAVE DROPPED POPS TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS THROUGH
SUNSET. LATER TONIGHT IS REMAINS POSSIBLE ENOUGH AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR TO ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO PUSH ONSHORE WITH
THE NORTHEAST FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...ALBERTO WILL BE ACCELERATING NEWARD ON MONDAY
MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE CAPE FEAR REGION EARLY MONDAY
NIGHT. ALBERTO IS A VERY COMPACT SYSTEM AND ITS TRACK IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AS IT HAS YET TO MAKE ITS HALF-LOOP LIKE TURNAROUND. THIS
TRANSLATES TO A FAIRLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO RAINFALL
FROM THE STORM AS IT PASSES BY. WILL CAP POPS IN THE 20-30 RANGE FOR
NOW HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. AREAS INLAND WILL NOT BE SEEING RAIN
FROM THE SYSTEM BUT ISO COVERAGE SLATED FOR THE WHOLE AREA DUE TO A
WEAK TROUGHINESS ALOFT. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE STORM WILL ALSO KEEP
MOST OR EVEN ALL OF THE NOTICEABLE WIND OVER WATER WITH PERHAPS ONLY
BALD HEAD ISLAND EVER GETTING ALL THAT BREEZY. IT BEARS REPEATING AT
THIS POINT THAT THIS ALL HINGES ON THE CURRENTLY HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
TRACK OF THE STORM. WITH ALBERTO OUT OF THE PICTURE TUESDAY ANOTHER
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SCATTERED TSTM COVERAGE
WITH A DIURNAL MAX DURING PEAK HEATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
ACCORDING TO SOME OF THE SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS THURSDAY AS WELL.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE HELD A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO BY CLOUD COVER
AND AN ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW CAUSED BY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF NEW
ENGLAND COAST. MEANWHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL NOT SHOW MUCH DEVIATION
FROM CLIMO. HEIGHTS BUILD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THIS FEATURE PULLS
AWAY AND SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS SUMMER-LIKE IN ITS
WEAKNESS. LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO SEASONABLE AT
A MINIMUM...PROBABLY ABOVE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...TS ALBERTO IS WELL SOUTH OF MYR MOVING SOUTHWEST WITH
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS DRIFTING WEST.
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS ARE SHOWING EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF ILM ADVECTING SOUTHWEST IN THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. LOW LEVEL VFR CEILINGS SHOULD DEVELOP AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS COULD DROP TO THE HIGH MVFR RANGE AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT ILM.
SFC WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVENING. CEILINGS HEIGHTS
DURING THE EVENING WILL BE LOWERING TO MVFR ESPECIALLY AT ILM. IFR
CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT INITIALLY AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...THEN THE FLO/LBT TERMINALS LATER. SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LOWEST VISIBILITIES OCCURRING AT
THE FLO/LBT TERMINALS. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST BY
09Z BUT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY OFFSHORE.
CEILINGS LIFT TO MVFR BY SUNRISE AS RAIN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
LIKELY ALONG THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY INDICATE VCSH
SINCE THE TRACK OF TS ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO OFFSHORE WITH DRY AIR
IN THE MID-LEVELS LIKELY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TRACK.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/TEMPO
IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EARLY FOR
THE NORTH CAROLINA WATERS BASED ON FALLING SEA HEIGHTS REPORTED AT
ALL THE CORMP BUOYS AND THE NDBC FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY. WITH THE
PROXIMITY OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH
THIS EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1230 PM
FOLLOWS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET MAINLY
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 6+ FOOT SEAS IN THE BREEZY NORTHEAST FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO AND A SECOND NON-TROPICAL
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST. THESE TWO AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE HAVE HELPED PRODUCE A 24-36 HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE
NORTHEAST FLOW WHICH HAVE BUILT SEAS TO AS HIGH AS 8 FEET OUT AT THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY LAST NIGHT. SEAS HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 6 FEET
AT THE BUOY NOW...AND SHOULD ONLY SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. VERY DRY AIR PUNCHING SOUTH HAS ERODED OUR POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST MAINLY EAST OF GEORGETOWN.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM SUNDAY...ALBERTO TO BRING VERY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE EXACT DETAILS STILL SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FUTURE FORECAST REFINEMENTS AND UPDATES FROM NHC.
WIND/SEAS FORECAST IS DIFFICULT SINCE NO PARTICULAR MODEL HANDLES
THE STORM VERY WELL DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EVEN SO...BASING
SWAN UPON NHC BASED WIND GRIDS STILL BUILDS LOCAL SEAS TO 8 FT OR SO
WITH SOLID LOWER END TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. EVEN HIGHER SEAS
WILL BE FOUND OUTSIDE OF 20NM WITH WINDS OFFSHORE DURING THEIR
WINDOW OF HIGHEST SPEEDS MONDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD PROBABLY ENDS WITH
NO BETTER THAN SCEC OVER NORTHERN ZONES ESPECIALLY AS SEAS MAY BE
SLOW TO SUBSIDE AS BACKSWELL FROM ALBERTO MIXES WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND CHOP FROM A PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO LEAVE THE
MIDATLANTIC REGION DURING THE LONG TERM. WHILE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
TREMENDOUS WEATHER-MAKER IT SHOULD KEEP A WEAK TROUGH IN PLACE OVER
THE LANDMASS AND A GENERAL SWRLY WIND OVER THE WATERS. SOME
UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO THE SPEED AT WHICH THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES OFF
TO THE EAST. ONCE IT DOES THERE WILL BE A VERY SUMMER-LIKE WEAKNESS
IN PRESSURE PATTERN LEFT BEHIND CAUSING WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. SOME GUIDANCE HAS THIS HAPPENING BY THURSDAY WHILE OTHERS
PUSH IT OFF AN ADDITIONAL DAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
AMZ254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
000
FXUS62 KMHX 201653
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1253 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL DRIFT WEST
AND REACH THE NORTHERN COAST TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
LIFT NORTH MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST IS FORECAST OT DRIFT A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWEST TODAY THEN
STALL AND BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR ALBERTO. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION MID WEEK THEN SLOWLY SHIFT E OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 PM SUN...SC ACROSS CWA WITH MOCLDY SKIES. EXPECT HIGHS MID
TO UPR 70S INLAND TO LWR 70S COAST. WILL KEEP CHC POPS GOING ALL
BUT CSTL PLAINS WHERE THERE WILL BE SLGT CHC.
PREV DISC...TS ALBERTO WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE S
TODAY WITH NO IMPACT ACROSS ERN NC. A COLD CORE LOW LOCATED ABOUT
150 MILES ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT W TOWARD THE
COAST TODAY. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES ALL MDLS SHOW LOW LVL MOISTURE
INCREASING FROM E TO W. OVERALL THE MDLS ARE SHOWING LESS MOISTURE
AND INSTAB TODAY SO HAVE LOWERED POPS AND QPF...STILL HAVE CHC
POPS DEVELOPING CST TO SLIGHT CHC INLAND. WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER WITH JUST A LITTLE SUN SHLD SEE HIGHS
REACH LOWER TO MID 70S. EXTENDED HIGH SURF TILL EARLY AFTN FOR
AREAS N OF CAPE HAT AS BUOY EAST OF RODANTHE STILL SHOWS 10 FOOT
SWELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM / MONDAY THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUN...WEAK LOW PRES WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER NRN COAST
THIS EVENING THEN VERY SLOWLY DRIFT N OVERNIGHT. NO SIGNIF CHANGES
FROM PREV FCST WITH CONT CHC POPS CST TO SLIGHT CHC DEEP INLAND.
LOW LVL MOISTURE CONTS TO INCREASE AND EXPECT MILD TEMPS WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. TS ALBERTO WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE S
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NO SIGNIF IMPACTS THIS FAR N.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 545 AM SUN...TS ALBERTO WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
EVENTUAL TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT CONTINUED TO
FOLLOW THE LATEST NHC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THIS
PACKAGE. LATEST NHC TRACK HAS TS ALBERTO MOVING ALONG THE SC
COAST MON...THEN UP AND ALONG THE NC COAST TUE AND TUE NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME BASED ON LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE...IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE
LIKELY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS. BASED ON CURRENT
TRACK/INTENSITY MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES WILL BE POSSIBLE...AN
ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE BEACHES...AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. AGAIN SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS EVOLVING SYSTEM.
DID NOT MAKE SIG CHANGES BEYOND WED. ONCE AGAIN MODELS DEVELOP
AN UPPER CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SE OR OFFSHORE AND ITS PLACEMENT
WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW UNSETTLED IT WILL REMAIN ACROSS ERN NC
WED-SAT. GENERALLY FOLLOWING HPC/ECMWF GUIDANCE WITH THE UPPER LOW
NEAR THE AREA AND WILL KEEP SLT CHC TO CHC POPS EACH DAY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED BUT IF THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS A BIT FARTHER
OFFSHORE...AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS...POPS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER WITH
UPPER RIDGING ALOFT. FOR THE MOST PART TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR
SEASONABLE NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE L80S INLAND TO 70S ALONG THE
COAST AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 PM SUN...SCU COVERS AREA WITH MVFR CIGS MOST TAF SITES.
IFR CIGS RPTD ACRS OBX AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO GRAD LOWER LATER
THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW LVL MOISTURE CONTS TO INCREASE...MVFR CIGS
A GOOD BET WITH POSS SOME IFR AS WELL LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL
PRECIP THREAT INLAND LOOKS LIMITED SO NO MENTION IN TAFS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH TS ALBERTO PASSING WELL
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN WED INTO THU
WITH SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 PM SUNDAY...NLY WINDS 10-15 KT ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS EARLY THIS AFTN. SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL
WATERS AND 3-6 FT ACROSS THE S. THSI WILL CONT FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTN.
PREV DISC...AS WEAK LOW ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS APPROACHES CST TODAY
MOST ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS GRAD DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 15 KTS
MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE. SEAS HAVE STARTED TO SUBSIDE A BIT SRN
TIER SO HAVE SCA ENDING S OF OCRACOKE AT 7AM. SEAS MUCH LARGER
CNTRL AND NRN WTRS AND SCA WILL CONT THESE AREAS INTO TONIGHT AS
WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE SWELL TO SUBSIDE. WITH THE WEAK LOW NEAR
THE NRN COAST OVERNIGHT AND TS ALBERTO WELL TO THE S EXPECT LIGHT
NE TO E WINDS. BY EARLY MON MORN SEAS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 4
FT RANGE HOWEVER SOME 5 FOOTER MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP SRN TIER DUE
TO SWELLS FROM ALBERTO.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 545 AM SUN...TS ALBERTO WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE FEATURE FOR
THE BEGINNING PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. LATEST NHC TRACK HAS TS
ALBERTO MOVING ALONG THE SC COAST MON...THEN MOVING NE OFF THE NC
COAST TUE INTO TUE EVENING. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM...DUE TO CONTINUED
MODEL DIFFERENCES. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THE LATEST NHC TRACK FOR
FORECAST PACKAGE. FOLLOWING THE LATEST TRACK TS FORCE WINDS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. WENT CLOSER TO SWAN FOR SEAS...PEAKING
AT 5-7FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND MARINERS ARE URGED CLOSELY MONITOR
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON OUR
COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY
WED...FROM S TO N. AT THIS TIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH PREDOMINATE S/SW FLOW
AOB 15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...JAC/RF
SHORT TERM...JAC/RF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JAC/RF/CQD
MARINE...JAC/RF/CQD
000
FXUS62 KMHX 201500
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL DRIFT WEST
AND REACH THE NORTHERN COAST TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
LIFT NORTH MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST IS FORECAST OT DRIFT A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWEST TODAY THEN
STALL AND BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR ALBERTO. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION MID WEEK THEN SLOWLY SHIFT E OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM SUN...DROPPED HIGH SURF ADVISORY AS SHORE BREAK 5-7
FT. FOR OBX. SC SPREADING ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA MOVING
SLOWLY WWD. EXPECT HIGHS MID TO UPR 70S INLAND TO LWR 70S COAST.
WILL KEEP CHC POPS GOING ALL BUT CSTL PLAINS WHERE THERE WILL BE
SLGT CHC.
PREV DISC...TS ALBERTO WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE S
TODAY WITH NO IMPACT ACROSS ERN NC. A COLD CORE LOW LOCATED ABOUT
150 MILES ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT W TOWARD THE
COAST TODAY. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES ALL MDLS SHOW LOW LVL MOISTURE
INCREASING FROM E TO W. OVERALL THE MDLS ARE SHOWING LESS MOISTURE
AND INSTAB TODAY SO HAVE LOWERED POPS AND QPF...STILL HAVE CHC
POPS DEVELOPING CST TO SLIGHT CHC INLAND. WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER WITH JUST A LITTLE SUN SHLD SEE HIGHS
REACH LOWER TO MID 70S. EXTENDED HIGH SURF TILL EARLY AFTN FOR
AREAS N OF CAPE HAT AS BUOY EAST OF RODANTHE STILL SHOWS 10 FOOT
SWELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM / MONDAY THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUN...WEAK LOW PRES WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER NRN COAST
THIS EVENING THEN VERY SLOWLY DRIFT N OVERNIGHT. NO SIGNIF CHANGES
FROM PREV FCST WITH CONT CHC POPS CST TO SLIGHT CHC DEEP INLAND.
LOW LVL MOISTURE CONTS TO INCREASE AND EXPECT MILD TEMPS WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. TS ALBERTO WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE S
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NO SIGNIF IMPACTS THIS FAR N.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 545 AM SUN...TS ALBERTO WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
EVENTUAL TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT CONTINUED TO
FOLLOW THE LATEST NHC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THIS
PACKAGE. LATEST NHC TRACK HAS TS ALBERTO MOVING ALONG THE SC
COAST MON...THEN UP AND ALONG THE NC COAST TUE AND TUE NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME BASED ON LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE...IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE
LIKELY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS. BASED ON CURRENT
TRACK/INTENSITY MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES WILL BE POSSIBLE...AN
ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE BEACHES...AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. AGAIN SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS EVOLVING SYSTEM.
DID NOT MAKE SIG CHANGES BEYOND WED. ONCE AGAIN MODELS DEVELOP
AN UPPER CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SE OR OFFSHORE AND ITS PLACEMENT
WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW UNSETTLED IT WILL REMAIN ACROSS ERN NC
WED-SAT. GENERALLY FOLLOWING HPC/ECMWF GUIDANCE WITH THE UPPER LOW
NEAR THE AREA AND WILL KEEP SLT CHC TO CHC POPS EACH DAY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED BUT IF THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS A BIT FARTHER
OFFSHORE...AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS...POPS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER WITH
UPPER RIDGING ALOFT. FOR THE MOST PART TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR
SEASONABLE NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE L80S INLAND TO 70S ALONG THE
COAST AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM SUN...SCU COVERS ERN CWA SPREADING SLOWLY WWD WITH
MAINLY MVFR CIGS. IFR CIGS RPTD ACRS OBX AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO
GRAD LOWER LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS LOW LVL MOISTURE CONTS TO
INCREASE...MVFR CIGS A GOOD BET WITH POSS SOME IFR AS WELL LATER
TONIGHT. OVERALL PRECIP THREAT INLAND LOOKS LIMITED SO NO MENTION
IN TAFS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH TS ALBERTO PASSING WELL
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN WED INTO THU
WITH SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM SUNDAY...DROPPED SCA FOR CAPE LOOKOUT TO OCRACOKE.
SCA CONTS N. NLY WINDS AROUND 15 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS LATE THIS MORN. SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL
WATERS. N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT S OF OCRACOKE ACROSS THE SRN WATERS
WITH SEAS IN THE 3-6 FT RANGE.
PREV DISC...AS WEAK LOW ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS APPROACHES CST TODAY
MOST ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS GRAD DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 15 KTS
MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE. SEAS HAVE STARTED TO SUBSIDE A BIT SRN
TIER SO HAVE SCA ENDING S OF OCRACOKE AT 7AM. SEAS MUCH LARGER
CNTRL AND NRN WTRS AND SCA WILL CONT THESE AREAS INTO TONIGHT AS
WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE SWELL TO SUBSIDE. WITH THE WEAK LOW NEAR
THE NRN COAST OVERNIGHT AND TS ALBERTO WELL TO THE S EXPECT LIGHT
NE TO E WINDS. BY EARLY MON MORN SEAS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 4
FT RANGE HOWEVER SOME 5 FOOTER MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP SRN TIER DUE
TO SWELLS FROM ALBERTO.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 545 AM SUN...TS ALBERTO WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE FEATURE FOR
THE BEGINNING PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. LATEST NHC TRACK HAS TS
ALBERTO MOVING ALONG THE SC COAST MON...THEN MOVING NE OFF THE NC
COAST TUE INTO TUE EVENING. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM...DUE TO CONTINUED
MODEL DIFFERENCES. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THE LATEST NHC TRACK FOR
FORECAST PACKAGE. FOLLOWING THE LATEST TRACK TS FORCE WINDS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. WENT CLOSER TO SWAN FOR SEAS...PEAKING
AT 5-7FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND MARINERS ARE URGED CLOSELY MONITOR
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON OUR
COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY
WED...FROM S TO N. AT THIS TIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH PREDOMINATE S/SW FLOW
AOB 15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...JAC/RF
SHORT TERM...JAC/RF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JAC/RF/CQD
MARINE...JAC/RF/CQD
000
FXUS62 KILM 201439
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1039 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE AS IT MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE CAPE FEAR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. A
LINGERING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD BRING SOME SLIGHTLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WARM AND HUMID WEATHER
IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY...VERY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR COVERS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH MULTIPLE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST
PULLING A NORTH TO NORTHEAST STREAM DOWN FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. DEWPOINTS BEFORE DAYBREAK FELL DEEP INTO THE 40S FOR MANY
AREAS...AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE INTO THE 40S
IN SOME LOCATIONS AS WELL. TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO LOCATED EAST OF
SAVANNAH GA IS NOT DOING WELL AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE COOL DRY AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE STORM`S CIRCULATION FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THE
CIRCULATION CENTER IS EXPOSED WHICH ARGUES FOR LITTLE STRENGTHENING
EXPECTED AT LEAST IN THE NEAR-TERM. SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE
PINWHEELING AROUND A SECOND LOW OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST HAS MOVED
SOUTH INTO THE CAPE FEAR REGION FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING. THIS
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH AND WEST THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...TURNING SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY ALL THE WAY BACK TO
I-95 BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHERE SKIES ARE CLOUDIEST NEAR THE COAST
THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WE HAVE
MADE SMALL DOWNWARD EDITS FOR WILMINGTON AND BURGAW`S HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT OF THE CLOUDINESS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S NEAR THE
COAST AND IN THE GREATER CAPE FEAR REGION.
DRY AIR APPEARS TO ALSO HAVE KILLED OUR CHANCES FOR RAIN AT LEAST
FOR TODAY. WE HAVE DROPPED POPS TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS THROUGH
SUNSET. LATER TONIGHT IS REMAINS POSSIBLE ENOUGH AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR TO ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO PUSH ONSHORE WITH
THE NORTHEAST FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...ALBERTO WILL BE ACCELERATING NEWARD ON MONDAY
MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE CAPE FEAR REGION EARLY MONDAY
NIGHT. ALBERTO IS A VERY COMPACT SYSTEM AND ITS TRACK IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AS IT HAS YET TO MAKE ITS HALF-LOOP LIKE TURNAROUND. THIS
TRANSLATES TO A FAIRLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO RAINFALL
FROM THE STORM AS IT PASSES BY. WILL CAP POPS IN THE 20-30 RANGE FOR
NOW HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. AREAS INLAND WILL NOT BE SEEING RAIN
FROM THE SYSTEM BUT ISO COVERAGE SLATED FOR THE WHOLE AREA DUE TO A
WEAK TROUGHINESS ALOFT. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE STORM WILL ALSO KEEP
MOST OR EVEN ALL OF THE NOTICEABLE WIND OVER WATER WITH PERHAPS ONLY
BALD HEAD ISLAND EVER GETTING ALL THAT BREEZY. IT BEARS REPEATING AT
THIS POINT THAT THIS ALL HINGES ON THE CURRENTLY HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
TRACK OF THE STORM. WITH ALBERTO OUT OF THE PICTURE TUESDAY ANOTHER
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SCATTERED TSTM COVERAGE
WITH A DIURNAL MAX DURING PEAK HEATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
ACCORDING TO SOME OF THE SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS THURSDAY AS WELL.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE HELD A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO BY CLOUD COVER
AND AN ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW CAUSED BY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF NEW
ENGLAND COAST. MEANWHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL NOT SHOW MUCH DEVIATION
FROM CLIMO. HEIGHTS BUILD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THIS FEATURE PULLS
AWAY AND SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS SUMMER-LIKE IN ITS
WEAKNESS. LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO SEASONABLE AT
A MINIMUM...PROBABLY ABOVE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE SITUATED OFF THE COAST
TODAY...THE CLOSEST AND MOST POTENT BEING TS ALBERTO WELL
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MYR. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EAST-NORTHEAST
OF CAPE HATTERAS.
THE TERMINALS WILL BE UNDER THE EFFECT OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SITUATED BETWEEN THE TWO LOW PRESSURE AREAS THIS TAF VALID PERIOD.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
LOW-LEVEL VFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS
AND FOG INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE ONLY MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE
CHANCE OF LOW-MID LEVEL CEILINGS. EXPECT AT LEAST A MODERATE
POTENTIAL FOR TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS.
IF SKIES DO SCATTER THEN LIFR CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/TEMPO
IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET MAINLY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 6+ FOOT SEAS IN THE
BREEZY NORTHEAST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO AND A
SECOND NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST.
THESE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE HAVE HELPED PRODUCE A 24-36 HOUR
PERIOD OF MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW WHICH HAVE BUILT SEAS TO AS HIGH
AS 8 FEET OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY LAST NIGHT. SEAS HAVE
FALLEN TO AROUND 6 FEET AT THE BUOY NOW...AND SHOULD ONLY SLOWLY
FALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. VERY DRY AIR PUNCHING SOUTH
HAS ERODED OUR POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND ONLY SMALL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MAINLY EAST OF GEORGETOWN.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM SUNDAY...ALBERTO TO BRING VERY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE EXACT DETAILS STILL SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FUTURE FORECAST REFINEMENTS AND UPDATES FROM NHC.
WIND/SEAS FORECAST IS DIFFICULT SINCE NO PARTICULAR MODEL HANDLES
THE STORM VERY WELL DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EVEN SO...BASING
SWAN UPON NHC BASED WIND GRIDS STILL BUILDS LOCAL SEAS TO 8 FT OR SO
WITH SOLID LOWER END TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. EVEN HIGHER SEAS
WILL BE FOUND OUTSIDE OF 20NM WITH WINDS OFFSHORE DURING THEIR
WINDOW OF HIGHEST SPEEDS MONDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD PROBABLY ENDS WITH
NO BETTER THAN SCEC OVER NORTHERN ZONES ESPECIALLY AS SEAS MAY BE
SLOW TO SUBSIDE AS BACKSWELL FROM ALBERTO MIXES WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND CHOP FROM A PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO LEAVE THE
MIDATLANTIC REGION DURING THE LONG TERM. WHILE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
TREMENDOUS WEATHER-MAKER IT SHOULD KEEP A WEAK TROUGH IN PLACE OVER
THE LANDMASS AND A GENERAL SWRLY WIND OVER THE WATERS. SOME
UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO THE SPEED AT WHICH THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES OFF
TO THE EAST. ONCE IT DOES THERE WILL BE A VERY SUMMER-LIKE WEAKNESS
IN PRESSURE PATTERN LEFT BEHIND CAUSING WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. SOME GUIDANCE HAS THIS HAPPENING BY THURSDAY WHILE OTHERS
PUSH IT OFF AN ADDITIONAL DAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
000
FXUS62 KMHX 201435
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1035 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL DRIFT WEST
AND REACH THE NORTHERN COAST TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
LIFT NORTH MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST IS FORECAST OT DRIFT A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWEST TODAY THEN
STALL AND BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR ALBERTO. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION MID WEEK THEN SLOWLY SHIFT E OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM SUN...NO SIG CHANGES ON UPDATE. SC SPREADING ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA MOVING SLOWLY WWD. EXPECT HIGHS MID TO UPR
70S INLAND TO LWR 70S COAST. WILL KEEP CHC POPS GOING ALL BUT CSTL
PLAINS WHERE THERE WILL BE SLGT CHC.
PREV DISC...TS ALBERTO WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE S
TODAY WITH NO IMPACT ACROSS ERN NC. A COLD CORE LOW LOCATED ABOUT
150 MILES ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT W TOWARD THE
COAST TODAY. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES ALL MDLS SHOW LOW LVL MOISTURE
INCREASING FROM E TO W. OVERALL THE MDLS ARE SHOWING LESS MOISTURE
AND INSTAB TODAY SO HAVE LOWERED POPS AND QPF...STILL HAVE CHC
POPS DEVELOPING CST TO SLIGHT CHC INLAND. WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER WITH JUST A LITTLE SUN SHLD SEE HIGHS
REACH LOWER TO MID 70S. EXTENDED HIGH SURF TILL EARLY AFTN FOR
AREAS N OF CAPE HAT AS BUOY EAST OF RODANTHE STILL SHOWS 10 FOOT
SWELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM / MONDAY THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUN...WEAK LOW PRES WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER NRN COAST
THIS EVENING THEN VERY SLOWLY DRIFT N OVERNIGHT. NO SIGNIF CHANGES
FROM PREV FCST WITH CONT CHC POPS CST TO SLIGHT CHC DEEP INLAND.
LOW LVL MOISTURE CONTS TO INCREASE AND EXPECT MILD TEMPS WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. TS ALBERTO WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE S
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NO SIGNIF IMPACTS THIS FAR N.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 545 AM SUN...TS ALBERTO WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
EVENTUAL TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT CONTINUED TO
FOLLOW THE LATEST NHC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THIS
PACKAGE. LATEST NHC TRACK HAS TS ALBERTO MOVING ALONG THE SC
COAST MON...THEN UP AND ALONG THE NC COAST TUE AND TUE NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME BASED ON LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE...IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE
LIKELY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS. BASED ON CURRENT
TRACK/INTENSITY MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES WILL BE POSSIBLE...AN
ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE BEACHES...AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. AGAIN SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS EVOLVING SYSTEM.
DID NOT MAKE SIG CHANGES BEYOND WED. ONCE AGAIN MODELS DEVELOP
AN UPPER CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SE OR OFFSHORE AND ITS PLACEMENT
WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW UNSETTLED IT WILL REMAIN ACROSS ERN NC
WED-SAT. GENERALLY FOLLOWING HPC/ECMWF GUIDANCE WITH THE UPPER LOW
NEAR THE AREA AND WILL KEEP SLT CHC TO CHC POPS EACH DAY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED BUT IF THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS A BIT FARTHER
OFFSHORE...AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS...POPS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER WITH
UPPER RIDGING ALOFT. FOR THE MOST PART TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR
SEASONABLE NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE L80S INLAND TO 70S ALONG THE
COAST AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM SUN...SCU COVERS ERN CWA SPREADING SLOWLY WWD WITH
MAINLY MVFR CIGS. IFR CIGS RPTD ACRS OBX AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO
GRAD LOWER LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS LOW LVL MOISTURE CONTS TO
INCREASE...MVFR CIGS A GOOD BET WITH POSS SOME IFR AS WELL LATER
TONIGHT. OVERALL PRECIP THREAT INLAND LOOKS LIMITED SO NO MENTION
IN TAFS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH TS ALBERTO PASSING WELL
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN WED INTO THU
WITH SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 AM SUNDAY...NLY WINDS AROUND 15 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NRN COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS MORN. SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET ACROSS THE NRN
AND CNTRL WATERS. N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT S OF OCRACOKE ACROSS THE
SRN WATERS WITH SEAS IN THE 3-6 FT RANGE. NO CHANGES TO SCA.
PREV DISC...AS WEAK LOW ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS APPROACHES CST TODAY
MOST ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS GRAD DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 15 KTS
MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE. SEAS HAVE STARTED TO SUBSIDE A BIT SRN
TIER SO HAVE SCA ENDING S OF OCRACOKE AT 7AM. SEAS MUCH LARGER
CNTRL AND NRN WTRS AND SCA WILL CONT THESE AREAS INTO TONIGHT AS
WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE SWELL TO SUBSIDE. WITH THE WEAK LOW NEAR
THE NRN COAST OVERNIGHT AND TS ALBERTO WELL TO THE S EXPECT LIGHT
NE TO E WINDS. BY EARLY MON MORN SEAS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 4
FT RANGE HOWEVER SOME 5 FOOTER MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP SRN TIER DUE
TO SWELLS FROM ALBERTO.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 545 AM SUN...TS ALBERTO WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE FEATURE FOR
THE BEGINNING PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. LATEST NHC TRACK HAS TS
ALBERTO MOVING ALONG THE SC COAST MON...THEN MOVING NE OFF THE NC
COAST TUE INTO TUE EVENING. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM...DUE TO CONTINUED
MODEL DIFFERENCES. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THE LATEST NHC TRACK FOR
FORECAST PACKAGE. FOLLOWING THE LATEST TRACK TS FORCE WINDS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. WENT CLOSER TO SWAN FOR SEAS...PEAKING
AT 5-7FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND MARINERS ARE URGED CLOSELY MONITOR
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON OUR
COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY
WED...FROM S TO N. AT THIS TIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH PREDOMINATE S/SW FLOW
AOB 15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...JAC/RF
SHORT TERM...JAC/RF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JAC/RF/CQD
MARINE...JAC/RF/CQD
000
FXUS62 KMHX 201422
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1022 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL DRIFT WEST
AND REACH THE NORTHERN COAST TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
LIFT NORTH MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST IS FORECAST OT DRIFT A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWEST TODAY THEN
STALL AND BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR ALBERTO. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION MID WEEK THEN SLOWLY SHIFT E OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM SUN...NO SIG CHANGES ON UPDATE. SC SPREADING ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA MOVING SLOWLY WWD. EXPECT HIGHS MID TO UPR
70S INLAND TO LWR 70S COAST. WILL KEEP CHC POPS GOING ALL BUT CSTL
PLAINS WHERE THERE WILL BE SLGT CHC.
PREV DISC...TS ALBERTO WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE S
TODAY WITH NO IMPACT ACROSS ERN NC. A COLD CORE LOW LOCATED ABOUT
150 MILES ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT W TOWARD THE
COAST TODAY. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES ALL MDLS SHOW LOW LVL MOISTURE
INCREASING FROM E TO W. OVERALL THE MDLS ARE SHOWING LESS MOISTURE
AND INSTAB TODAY SO HAVE LOWERED POPS AND QPF...STILL HAVE CHC
POPS DEVELOPING CST TO SLIGHT CHC INLAND. WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER WITH JUST A LITTLE SUN SHLD SEE HIGHS
REACH LOWER TO MID 70S. EXTENDED HIGH SURF TILL EARLY AFTN FOR
AREAS N OF CAPE HAT AS BUOY EAST OF RODANTHE STILL SHOWS 10 FOOT
SWELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM / MONDAY THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUN...WEAK LOW PRES WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER NRN COAST
THIS EVENING THEN VERY SLOWLY DRIFT N OVERNIGHT. NO SIGNIF CHANGES
FROM PREV FCST WITH CONT CHC POPS CST TO SLIGHT CHC DEEP INLAND.
LOW LVL MOISTURE CONTS TO INCREASE AND EXPECT MILD TEMPS WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. TS ALBERTO WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE S
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NO SIGNIF IMPACTS THIS FAR N.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 545 AM SUN...TS ALBERTO WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
EVENTUAL TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT CONTINUED TO
FOLLOW THE LATEST NHC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THIS
PACKAGE. LATEST NHC TRACK HAS TS ALBERTO MOVING ALONG THE SC
COAST MON...THEN UP AND ALONG THE NC COAST TUE AND TUE NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME BASED ON LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE...IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE
LIKELY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS. BASED ON CURRENT
TRACK/INTENSITY MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES WILL BE POSSIBLE...AN
ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE BEACHES...AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. AGAIN SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS EVOLVING SYSTEM.
DID NOT MAKE SIG CHANGES BEYOND WED. ONCE AGAIN MODELS DEVELOP
AN UPPER CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SE OR OFFSHORE AND ITS PLACEMENT
WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW UNSETTLED IT WILL REMAIN ACROSS ERN NC
WED-SAT. GENERALLY FOLLOWING HPC/ECMWF GUIDANCE WITH THE UPPER LOW
NEAR THE AREA AND WILL KEEP SLT CHC TO CHC POPS EACH DAY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED BUT IF THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS A BIT FARTHER
OFFSHORE...AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS...POPS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER WITH
UPPER RIDGING ALOFT. FOR THE MOST PART TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR
SEASONABLE NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE L80S INLAND TO 70S ALONG THE
COAST AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM SUN...SCU COVERS ERN CWA SPREADING SLOWLY WWD WITH
MAINLY MVFR CIGS. IFR CIGS RPTD ACRS OBX AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO
GRAD LOWER LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS LOW LVL MOISTURE CONTS TO
INCREASE...MVFR CIGS A GOOD BET WITH POSS SOME IFR AS WELL LATER
TONIGHT. OVERALL PRECIP THREAT INLAND LOOKS LIMITED SO NO MENTION
IN TAFS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH TS ALBERTO PASSING WELL
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN WED INTO THU
WITH SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM SUNDAY...NLY WINDS STILL IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE MAINLY
ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS MORN WITH SEAS 5
TO 8 FEET. N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT S OF OCRACOKE ACROSS THE SRN WATERS
WITH SEAS IN THE 3-6 FT RANGE. NO CHANGES TO SCA.
PREV DISC...AS WEAK LOW ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS APPROACHES CST TODAY
MOST ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS GRAD DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 15 KTS
MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE. SEAS HAVE STARTED TO SUBSIDE A BIT SRN
TIER SO HAVE SCA ENDING S OF OCRACOKE AT 7AM. SEAS MUCH LARGER
CNTRL AND NRN WTRS AND SCA WILL CONT THESE AREAS INTO TONIGHT AS
WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE SWELL TO SUBSIDE. WITH THE WEAK LOW NEAR
THE NRN COAST OVERNIGHT AND TS ALBERTO WELL TO THE S EXPECT LIGHT
NE TO E WINDS. BY EARLY MON MORN SEAS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 4
FT RANGE HOWEVER SOME 5 FOOTER MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP SRN TIER DUE
TO SWELLS FROM ALBERTO.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 545 AM SUN...TS ALBERTO WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE FEATURE FOR
THE BEGINNING PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. LATEST NHC TRACK HAS TS
ALBERTO MOVING ALONG THE SC COAST MON...THEN MOVING NE OFF THE NC
COAST TUE INTO TUE EVENING. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM...DUE TO CONTINUED
MODEL DIFFERENCES. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THE LATEST NHC TRACK FOR
FORECAST PACKAGE. FOLLOWING THE LATEST TRACK TS FORCE WINDS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. WENT CLOSER TO SWAN FOR SEAS...PEAKING
AT 5-7FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND MARINERS ARE URGED CLOSELY MONITOR
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON OUR
COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY
WED...FROM S TO N. AT THIS TIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH PREDOMINATE S/SW FLOW
AOB 15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...JAC/RF
SHORT TERM...JAC/RF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JAC/RF/CQD
MARINE...JAC/RF/CQD
000
FXUS62 KRAH 201125
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
720 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE MONDAY... THEN STRENGTHEN TO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM SUNDAY....
THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS IS RATHER COMPLICATED DUE
TO THE INTERACTION OF TS ALBERTO OFF THE SC COAST....A WEAK SURFACE
LOW OFF THE VA COAST....AND A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST COAST.
THE CURRENT OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK FOR TS ALBERTO SHOWS THE
STORM MEANDERING SOUTH TODAY AND THEN MOVING BACK TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND PASSING BY THE NC COAST LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME...THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE VA COAST IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE OUTER BANKS TODAY AS
SEVERAL VORT CENTERS WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW. THIS WILL BRING SOME WEAK FORCING INTO NORTHEAST NC THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL IS RATHER DRY WITH PW
VALUES AROUND 0.6" AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S. THE STRONGEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS INSTEAD FORECAST TO BE FROM THE DELMARVA NORTH
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THUS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK LOW AND SOME SHALLOW ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS EVENING...SPREADING
WESTWARD OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT
AND POPS WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE. GUIDANCE
IS MOSTLY WARMER FOR TODAY THAN ON SATURDAY AS 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES INCH UP ABOUT 5M TO 1385M. INCREASING CLOUD COVER IN
THE EAST LATE IN THE DAY SHOULD CREATE A GRADIENT WITH LOWER 80S
WEST TO UPPER 70S EAST. TONIGHT...LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
AS DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO CREEP UP...PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST. MID 50S
WEST TO LOWER 60S EAST.
THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO HINGE MORE ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF TS ALBERTO. WHILE NO DIRECT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
INLAND AT THIS TIME...WARM MOIST ADVECTION OFF THE ATLANTIC AND THE
PRESENCE OF AN 850MB TROUGH SHIFTING INLAND SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS. WIND FIELDS WILL BE WEAK BETWEEN
THE UPPER LOW AND A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...BUT PW WILL
INCREASE BACK TO 1.25" OR GREATER AND MODELS SHOW AROUND 500 J/KG IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NC OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING THE OHIO VALLEY LATE MONDAY....BUT BASED ON CURRENT
PROJECTIONS THAT CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP TO LATE IN THE DAY TO REACH
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
IN THE FORECAST...POPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FOR 20 WEST TO 40 EAST.
THICKNESSES AGAIN RISE OVER SUNDAY...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD HIGHS
BACK SLIGHTLY AND LOWER 80S SOUTHWEST TO UPPER 70S NORTHEAST ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM SUNDAY...
FOR MONDAY NIGHT: THE LATEST NHC FORECAST FOR ALBERTO PLACES ITS
CENTER ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF CHS AT 8 PM EDT MONDAY EVENING...
MOVING TOWARD THE NE ROUGHLY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF
STREAM. WHILE THE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM ON CENTRAL NC WILL
BE MINIMAL... IT IS LIKELY TO ALTER THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT SUCH
THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF OUR FORECAST REMAINS QUITE LOW.
SOLUTIONS VARY AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS NOT ONLY WITH ALBERTO`S
CIRCULATION BUT ALSO WITH THE SURFACE LOW NOW OFFSHORE EAST OF THE
NC/VA STATE LINE... AS WELL AS A LOW THAT THE MODELS DEVELOP OFF THE
EAST COAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE PATHS AND INTENSITY OF ALL THREE LOWS
VARY CONSIDERABLY AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS... ALTHOUGH COMMON
THEMES ARE FOR THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF TO TAKE THE BAHAMAS LOW NORTHWARD
AND KEEP IT WELL OFFSHORE... WHILE THE LOW OFF THE VA/NC BORDER
WEAKENS AND DRIFTS WESTWARD INTO NC/VA AS AN OPEN INVERTED TROUGH.
THE PICTURE IS EQUALLY AS MURKY ALOFT... WHERE THE DUAL MID LEVEL
LOWS OFFSHORE (EAST OF CHS AND ORF) APPEAR TO PIVOT COUNTERCLOCKWISE
WHILE DRIFTING WEST/ONSHORE... AND MODELS SHOW THESE CONSOLIDATING
INTO A SINGLE LOW. IN EITHER CASE... BY MONDAY EVENING... THE
RESULTANT LOW SHOULD DEVOLVE INTO AN OPEN MID LEVEL WAVE LIFTING TO
OUR NORTHEAST... PROPELLED BY A DEEPENING TROUGH... A PRODUCT OF THE
LOW NOW OVER NEBRASKA AND A WAVE NOW OVER MONTANA... THAT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH MI AND THE
OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND HELPS PULL THE MIDATLANTIC TROUGH
NORTHEASTWARD... MUCH OF CENTRAL NC WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS. THE PRESENCE OF
THE RETREATING SHEAR AXIS OVER NORTHEAST NC AND ERN VA COMBINED WITH
A SLOW LOWERING OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN OUR NORTH/EAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT... FOCUSED ALONG THE DEPARTING TROUGH WHERE
VERY WEAK/LIGHT/CONFLUENT SURFACE FLOW MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG
EARLY... BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM THE WEST AND WSW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT INCOMING FROM THE WEST. WILL HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SW RANGING TO CHANCE EAST MONDAY EVENING...
TAPERING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE FAR NORTH ONLY OVERNIGHT. MILD LOWS
OF 60-65 LOOK REASONABLE.
FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: THIS MAY END UP AS THE MOST STORMY
PORTION OF THIS 7-DAY FORECAST. MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT BUT OVERALL AGREE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. ALL SOLUTIONS LEAN TOWARD AN INTENSIFYING SYSTEM LIKELY
CULMINATING IN A CLOSED LOW SWINGING SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE OVER THE
KY/WV/VA BORDER REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES BY
AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC AS DOES PRECIPITABLE WATER WHICH IS
PREDICTED TO EXCEED 150% OF NORMAL... WITH RISING 850 MB MOISTURE
FLUX CONVERGENCE. ALONG WITH THE IMPROVING MOISTURE... LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT STRENGTHENS AS WELL WITH LOW LEVEL MASS
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT ENTERING THE WRN PIEDMONT... MID LEVEL
DPVA... 30 M MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS... AND INCREASING UPPER
DIVERGENCE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC. WILL HOLD ONTO HIGH CHANCE
POPS... 30-40% WEST TO 50% EAST... FOCUSED ON THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
GFS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO JUST 20-25 KTS...
HOWEVER GIVEN THE IMPROVING DYNAMICS... RISING 850-500 MB LAPSE
RATES TO 6.5-7.0 C/KM... AND WHAT IS PROJECTED TO BE MODERATE
INSTABILITY (INCLUDING 500-800 J/KG OF CAPE IN THE -10C TO -30C
LAYER)... A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS 80-85 WITH GOOD
PREFRONTAL WARM AIR ADVECTION. POPS SHOULD DECREASE SLIGHTLY WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE MID LEVELS SLIGHTLY DRY OUT... HOWEVER THE
PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW JUST TO OUR WEST... LINGERING LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE... AND THE STILL-STEEP LAPSE RATES NECESSITATE
LEAVING IN A CHANCE OF SLOW-MOVING STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS
59-64. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM SUNDAY...
FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/SRN VA THROUGH THURSDAY AS
SHOWN BY THE ECMWF... WHILE THE SURFACE COOL FRONT DISSIPATES OVER
THE PIEDMONT. WITH A LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTH OR SE
AREAWIDE AND NO STRONG DRYING EVIDENT... WILL RETAIN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS... FOCUSING PRIMARILY ON THE EASTERN CWA (WHERE
MOISTURE SHOULD BE BETTER) AND IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING.
THICKNESSES HOLDING ABOVE NORMAL BALANCED BY BROKEN DIURNAL AND
MID/HIGH CLOUDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
ABOVE-NORMAL LOWS IN THE 60-65 RANGE.
FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY: THE GFS IS FASTER THAN BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS`S PREVIOUS RUN IN MOVING THE MID LEVEL LOW EASTWARD OUT OF THE
AREA. AS SUCH... THE GFS BUILDS STRONG RIDGING FROM SE TX THROUGH
THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AND MID SOUTH EARLY FRIDAY... LEADING TO A
CLOSED ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST TO OUR WEST BY SATURDAY WHICH
DRIVES OUR THICKNESSES TO 25+ M ABOVE NORMAL. BY CONTRAST... THE
12Z/19 ECMWF HOLDS THE WEAKENING LOW OVER THE NC OUTER BANKS EARLY
FRIDAY THEN DROPS IT SSW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST... WHICH RESULTS IN
A MUCH MORE WESTWARD ANTICYCLONE CENTER OVER MISSOURI AND A MUCH
LESS DRAMATIC WARMUP. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS A LITTLE FASTER
THAN THE OP ECMWF... RESEMBLING A MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD SOLUTION
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS... A REASONABLE APPROACH GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SUCH A CLOSED-OFF PATTERN. WILL CONTINUE TREND
FROM EARLIER FORECAST PACKAGES TOWARD DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER...
ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE MOST INTENSE HEAT SHOULD HOLD JUST TO OUR
WEST AND NW. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH TROPICAL STORM
ALBERTO OFF THE SC COAST AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VA COAST.
THE LOW OFF THE VA COAST IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE OUTER BANKS THIS EVENING...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN NC. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO
GET A HANDLE ON THE STORM SYSTEMS OFFSHORE AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS SOMEWHAT LOW DUE TO THIS. THE PROBABILITY OF LOW STRATUS...AND
EVEN A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN...WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY AFTER 21Z ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS AT KRWI. THE STRATUS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST
OVERNIGHT...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING CEILINGS BETWEEN 1-2K
FT. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE STRATUS WILL NOT MAKE IT ALL
THE WAY TO KGSO AND KINT...AND VFR CONDITIONS COUPLE PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
FOR THE LONG TERM...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE TRACK AND INLAND IMPACT OF TS ALBERTO...BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK BRINGS IT ALONG THE NC COAST ON TUESDAY. MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK
AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER/LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...SMITH
000
FXUS62 KILM 201050
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
651 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE AS IT MAKES ITS
PASS BY THE CAPE FEAR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHOULD BRING SOME SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM SUNDAY...TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED ABOUT 170
MILES SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE CAPE FEAR AND STILL MOVING TO THE SW
EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN A FLARE UP IN CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION SINCE MIDNIGHT. THE HURRICANE CENTER HAS THE
STORM REVERSING COURSE AND HEADING BACK TO THE NE TONIGHT. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS ALBERTO MAKING ITS CLOSET APPROACH LATE MON
INTO TUE AS IT MOVES UP THE CAROLINA COAST AND ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. THE TRACK MAY CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY BOTH IN TIME AND SPACE
AND SO YOU ARE ADVISED TO CLOSELY MONITOR LATER FORECASTS.
WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY AT THE BEACHES LATE MON INTO TUE. TIDES WILL
BE ELEVATED. THE NEW MOON IS TONIGHT. TIDAL DEPARTURES ON THE ORDER
OF 1/2 TO 1 FT ABOVE PREDICTED WILL BRING THE EVE HIGH TIDE CLOSE TO
ACTION STAGE. WE DO NOT EXPECT COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS TO BE MET
TONIGHT. EXPECT TIDES MON NIGHT WILL BE HIGHER AND THERE MAY BE SOME
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS FALLING.
ANOTHER TOUGH FORECAST REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WILL INCLUDE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE GEORGETOWN COAST EARLY ON WITH POPS TRENDING
HIGHER FURTHER N AND ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AS THE
PERIOD PROGRESSES. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE W OF
ALBERTO...WILL CONFINE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE CATEGORY.
THE TRACK OF ALBERTO WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL WE RECEIVE. THE STORM IS SMALL AND SO THE FURTHER OFF THE
COAST IT TRACKS...THE SMALLER OUR RISK FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE LESS TODAY THAN ON SAT. MORE MAPLE SUNSHINE WILL
AID IN GETTING TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL. THE HIGHEST TEMPS SHOULD BE
FOUND INLAND WHERE READINGS SHOULD MANAGE TO REACH OR SLIGHTLY
EXCEED 80 DEG. NEAR THE COAST...WHERE MARINE INFLUENCES WILL
DOMINATE...TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S WILL BE MORE COMMON.
MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING AS LOW AS THEY
DID THIS MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE AROUND 60 DEG...LOWER TO
MID 60S RIGHT AT THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...ALBERTO WILL BE ACCELERATING NEWARD ON MONDAY
MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE CAPE FEAR REGION EARLY MONDAY
NIGHT. ALBERTO IS A VERY COMPACT SYSTEM AND ITS TRACK IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AS IT HAS YET TO MAKE ITS HALF-LOOP LIKE TURNAROUND. THIS
TRANSLATES TO A FAIRLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO RAINFALL
FROM THE STORM AS IT PASSES BY. WILL CAP POPS IN THE 20-30 RANGE FOR
NOW HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. AREAS INLAND WILL NOT BE SEEING RAIN
FROM THE SYSTEM BUT ISO COVERAGE SLATED FOR THE WHOLE AREA DUE TO A
WEAK TROUGHINESS ALOFT. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE STORM WILL ALSO KEEP
MOST OR EVEN ALL OF THE NOTICEABLE WIND OVER WATER WITH PERHAPS ONLY
BALD HEAD ISLAND EVER GETTING ALL THAT BREEZY. IT BEARS REPEATING AT
THIS POINT THAT THIS ALL HINGES ON THE CURRENTLY HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
TRACK OF THE STORM. WITH ALBERTO OUT OF THE PICTURE TUESDAY ANOTHER
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SCATTERED TSTM COVERAGE
WITH A DIURNAL MAX DURING PEAK HEATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
ACCORDING TO SOME OF THE SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS THURSDAY AS WELL.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE HELD A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO BY CLOUD COVER
AND AN ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW CAUSED BY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF NEW
ENGLAND COAST. MEANWHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL NOT SHOW MUCH DEVIATION
FROM CLIMO. HEIGHTS BUILD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THIS FEATURE PULLS
AWAY AND SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS SUMMER-LIKE IN ITS
WEAKNESS. LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO SEASONABLE AT
A MINIMUM...PROBABLY ABOVE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE SITUATED OFF THE COAST
TODAY...THE CLOSEST AND MOST POTENT BEING TS ALBERTO WELL
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MYR. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EAST-NORTHEAST
OF CAPE HATTERAS.
THE TERMINALS WILL BE UNDER THE EFFECT OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SITUATED BETWEEN THE TWO LOW PRESSURE AREAS THIS TAF VALID PERIOD.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
LOW-LEVEL VFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS
AND FOG INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE ONLY MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE
CHANCE OF LOW-MID LEVEL CEILINGS. EXPECT AT LEAST A MODERATE
POTENTIAL FOR TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS.
IF SKIES DO SCATTER THEN LIFR CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/TEMPO
IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM SUNDAY...TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED S OF THE
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE STORM WAS STILL DRIFTING TO THE
SW...BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TO THE NE...PERHAPS MAKING ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH LATE MON INTO TUE AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS...MON NIGHT INTO TUE. MARINERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR LATER FORECASTS.
FOR TODAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE NE TODAY AND FROM THE NE OR ENE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS OF UP
TO 15 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. SEAS
SHOULD BE HIGHEST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TODAY...TRENDING LOWER
AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES. WILL INITIALIZE WITH 5 TO 7 FT SEAS. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATER MON AND MON NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM SUNDAY...ALBERTO TO BRING VERY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE EXACT DETAILS STILL SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FUTURE FORECAST REFINEMENTS AND UPDATES FROM NHC.
WIND/SEAS FORECAST IS DIFFICULT SINCE NO PARTICULAR MODEL HANDLES
THE STORM VERY WELL DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EVEN SO...BASING
SWAN UPON NHC BASED WIND GRIDS STILL BUILDS LOCAL SEAS TO 8 FT OR SO
WITH SOLID LOWER END TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. EVEN HIGHER SEAS
WILL BE FOUND OUTSIDE OF 20NM WITH WINDS OFFSHORE DURING THEIR
WINDOW OF HIGHEST SPEEDS MONDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD PROBABLY ENDS WITH
NO BETTER THAN SCEC OVER NORTHERN ZONES ESPECIALLY AS SEAS MAY BE
SLOW TO SUBSIDE AS BACKSWELL FROM ALBERTO MIXES WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND CHOP FROM A PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO LEAVE THE
MIDATLANTIC REGION DURING THE LONG TERM. WHILE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
TREMENDOUS WEATHER-MAKER IT SHOULD KEEP A WEAK TROUGH IN PLACE OVER
THE LANDMASS AND A GENERAL SWRLY WIND OVER THE WATERS. SOME
UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO THE SPEED AT WHICH THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES OFF
TO THE EAST. ONCE IT DOES THERE WILL BE A VERY SUMMER-LIKE WEAKNESS
IN PRESSURE PATTERN LEFT BEHIND CAUSING WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. SOME GUIDANCE HAS THIS HAPPENING BY THURSDAY WHILE OTHERS
PUSH IT OFF AN ADDITIONAL DAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL/RJD
000
FXUS62 KMHX 201016
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
613 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL DRIFT WEST
AND REACH THE NORTHERN COAST TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
LIFT NORTH MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST IS FORECAST OT DRIFT A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWEST TODAY THEN
STALL AND BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR ALBERTO. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION MID WEEK THEN SLOWLY SHIFT E OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 605 AM SUN...MINOR CHANGES WITH UPDATE...DELAYED AND LOWERED
POPS AGAIN AS MODELS KEEP BACKING OFF ON PRECIP CHCS TODAY AS LOW
APPROACHES THE NRN COAST.
PREV DISC...TS ALBERTO WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE S
TODAY WITH NO IMPACT ACROSS ERN NC. A COLD CORE LOW LOCATED ABOUT
150 MILES ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT W TOWARD THE
COAST TODAY. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES ALL MDLS SHOW LOW LVL MOISTURE
INCREASING FROM E TO W. OVERALL THE MDLS ARE SHOWING LESS MOISTURE
AND INSTAB TODAY SO HAVE LOWERED POPS AND QPF...STILL HAVE CHC
POPS DEVELOPING CST TO SLIGHT CHC INLAND. WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER WITH JUST A LITTLE SUN SHLD SEE HIGHS
REACH LOWER TO MID 70S. EXTENDED HIGH SURF TILL EARLY AFTN FOR
AREAS N OF CAPE HAT AS BUOY EAST OF RODANTHE STILL SHOWS 10 FOOT
SWELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM / TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SUN...WEAK LOW PRES WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER NRN COAST
THIS EVENING THEN VERY SLOWLY DRIFT N OVERNIGHT. NO SIGNIF CHANGES
FROM PREV FCST WITH CONT CHC POPS CST TO SLIGHT CHC DEEP INLAND.
LOW LVL MOISTURE CONTS TO INCREASE AND EXPECT MILD TEMPS WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. TS ALBERTO WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE S
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NO SIGNIF IMPACTS THIS FAR N.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 545 AM SUN...TS ALBERTO WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
EVENTUAL TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT CONTINUED TO
FOLLOW THE LATEST NHC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THIS
PACKAGE. LATEST NHC TRACK HAS TS ALBERTO MOVING ALONG THE SC
COAST MON...THEN UP AND ALONG THE NC COAST TUE AND TUE NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME BASED ON LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE...IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE
LIKELY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS. BASED ON CURRENT
TRACK/INTENSITY MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES WILL BE POSSIBLE...AN
ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE BEACHES...AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. AGAIN SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS EVOLVING SYSTEM.
DID NOT MAKE SIG CHANGES BEYOND WED. ONCE AGAIN MODELS DEVELOP
AN UPPER CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SE OR OFFSHORE AND ITS PLACEMENT
WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW UNSETTLED IT WILL REMAIN ACROSS ERN NC
WED-SAT. GENERALLY FOLLOWING HPC/ECMWF GUIDANCE WITH THE UPPER LOW
NEAR THE AREA AND WILL KEEP SLT CHC TO CHC POPS EACH DAY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED BUT IF THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS A BIT FARTHER
OFFSHORE...AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS...POPS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER WITH
UPPER RIDGING ALOFT. FOR THE MOST PART TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR
SEASONABLE NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE L80S INLAND TO 70S ALONG THE
COAST AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM SUN...SATL SHOWS SCU SPREADING ONSHORE AND MANY CSTL
SITES HAVE MVFR CIGS. ALWAYS HARD TO TELL IF THESE CLOUDS WILL
CONT TO SHIFT W BUT MAY HAVE AT LEAST SOME OCNL MVFR CIGS THIS
MORN...ESPCLY ERN SITES. CIGS EXPECTED TO GRAD LOWER LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS LOW LVL MOISTURE CONTS TO INCREASE...MVFR CIGS A
GOOD BET WITH POSS SOME IFR AS WELL LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL PRECIP
THREAT INLAND LOOKS LIMITED SO NO MENTION IN TAFS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH TS ALBERTO PASSING WELL
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN WED INTO THU
WITH SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM SUNDAY...WINDS CONT TO DIMINISH WITH MOST SITES NOW
15 KTS OR LESS. WITH SEAS OFF ONSLOW BAY NOW BELOW 6 FT DROPPED
SCA S OF LOOKOUT.
PREV DISC...AS WEAK LOW ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS APPROACHES CST
TODAY MOST ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS GRAD DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN
15 KTS MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE. SEAS HAVE STARTED TO SUBSIDE A BIT
SRN TIER SO HAVE SCA ENDING S OF OCRACOKE AT 7AM. SEAS MUCH LARGER
CNTRL AND NRN WTRS AND SCA WILL CONT THESE AREAS INTO TONIGHT AS
WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE SWELL TO SUBSIDE. WITH THE WEAK LOW NEAR
THE NRN COAST OVERNIGHT AND TS ALBERTO WELL TO THE S EXPECT LIGHT
NE TO E WINDS. BY EARLY MON MORN SEAS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 4
FT RANGE HOWEVER SOME 5 FOOTER MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP SRN TIER DUE
TO SWELLS FROM ALBERTO.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 545 AM SUN...TS ALBERTO WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE FEATURE FOR
THE BEGINNING PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. LATEST NHC TRACK HAS TS
ALBERTO MOVING ALONG THE SC COAST MON...THEN MOVING NE OFF THE NC
COAST TUE INTO TUE EVENING. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM...DUE TO CONTINUED
MODEL DIFFERENCES. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THE LATEST NHC TRACK FOR
FORECAST PACKAGE. FOLLOWING THE LATEST TRACK TS FORCE WINDS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. WENT CLOSER TO SWAN FOR SEAS...PEAKING
AT 5-7FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND MARINERS ARE URGED CLOSELY MONITOR
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON OUR
COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY
WED...FROM S TO N. AT THIS TIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH PREDOMINATE S/SW FLOW
AOB 15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD
000
FXUS62 KMHX 201013
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
613 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL DRIFT WEST
AND REACH THE NORTHERN COAST TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
LIFT NORTH MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST IS FORECAST OT DRIFT A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWEST TODAY THEN
STALL AND BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR ALBERTO. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION MID WEEK THEN SLOWLY SHIFT E OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM SUN...MINOR CHANGES WITH UPDATE...DELAYED AND LOWERED
POPS AGAIN AS MODELS KEEP BACKING OFF ON PRECIP CHCS TODAY AS LOW
APPROACHES THE NRN COAST.
PREV DISC...TS ALBERTO WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE S
TODAY WITH NO IMPACT ACROSS ERN NC. A COLD CORE LOW LOCATED ABOUT
150 MILES ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT W TOWARD THE
COAST TODAY. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES ALL MDLS SHOW LOW LVL MOISTURE
INCREASING FROM E TO W. OVERALL THE MDLS ARE SHOWING LESS MOISTURE
AND INSTAB TODAY SO HAVE LOWERED POPS AND QPF...STILL HAVE CHC
POPS DEVELOPING CST TO SLIGHT CHC INLAND. WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER WITH JUST A LITTLE SUN SHLD SEE HIGHS
REACH LOWER TO MID 70S. EXTENDED HIGH SURF TILL EARLY AFTN FOR
AREAS N OF CAPE HAT AS BUOY EAST OF RODANTHE STILL SHOWS 10 FOOT
SWELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM / MONDAY THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUN...WEAK LOW PRES WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER NRN COAST
THIS EVENING THEN VERY SLOWLY DRIFT N OVERNIGHT. NO SIGNIF CHANGES
FROM PREV FCST WITH CONT CHC POPS CST TO SLIGHT CHC DEEP INLAND.
LOW LVL MOISTURE CONTS TO INCREASE AND EXPECT MILD TEMPS WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. TS ALBERTO WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE S
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NO SIGNIF IMPACTS THIS FAR N.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 545 AM SUN...TS ALBERTO WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
EVENTUAL TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT CONTINUED TO
FOLLOW THE LATEST NHC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THIS
PACKAGE. LATEST NHC TRACK HAS TS ALBERTO MOVING ALONG THE SC
COAST MON...THEN UP AND ALONG THE NC COAST TUE AND TUE NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME BASED ON LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE...IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE
LIKELY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS. BASED ON CURRENT
TRACK/INTENSITY MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES WILL BE POSSIBLE...AN
ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE BEACHES...AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. AGAIN SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS EVOLVING SYSTEM.
DID NOT MAKE SIG CHANGES BEYOND WED. ONCE AGAIN MODELS DEVELOP
AN UPPER CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SE OR OFFSHORE AND ITS PLACEMENT
WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW UNSETTLED IT WILL REMAIN ACROSS ERN NC
WED-SAT. GENERALLY FOLLOWING HPC/ECMWF GUIDANCE WITH THE UPPER LOW
NEAR THE AREA AND WILL KEEP SLT CHC TO CHC POPS EACH DAY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED BUT IF THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS A BIT FARTHER
OFFSHORE...AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS...POPS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER WITH
UPPER RIDGING ALOFT. FOR THE MOST PART TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR
SEASONABLE NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE L80S INLAND TO 70S ALONG THE
COAST AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM SUN...SATL SHOWS SCU SPREADING ONSHORE AND MANY CSTL
SITES HAVE MVFR CIGS. ALWAYS HARD TO TELL IF THESE CLOUDS WILL
CONT TO SHIFT W BUT MAY HAVE AT LEAST SOME OCNL MVFR CIGS THIS
MORN...ESPCLY ERN SITES. CIGS EXPECTED TO GRAD LOWER LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS LOW LVL MOISTURE CONTS TO INCREASE...MVFR CIGS A
GOOD BET WITH POSS SOME IFR AS WELL LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL PRECIP
THREAT INLAND LOOKS LIMITED SO NO MENTION IN TAFS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH TS ALBERTO PASSING WELL
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN WED INTO THU
WITH SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM SUNDAY...WINDS CONT TO DIMINISH WITH MOST SITES NOW
15 KTS OR LESS. WITH SEAS OFF ONSLOW BAY NOW BELOW 6 FT DROPPED
SCA S OF LOOKOUT.
PREV DISC...AS WEAK LOW ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS APPROACHES CST
TODAY MOST ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS GRAD DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN
15 KTS MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE. SEAS HAVE STARTED TO SUBSIDE A BIT
SRN TIER SO HAVE SCA ENDING S OF OCRACOKE AT 7AM. SEAS MUCH LARGER
CNTRL AND NRN WTRS AND SCA WILL CONT THESE AREAS INTO TONIGHT AS
WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE SWELL TO SUBSIDE. WITH THE WEAK LOW NEAR
THE NRN COAST OVERNIGHT AND TS ALBERTO WELL TO THE S EXPECT LIGHT
NE TO E WINDS. BY EARLY MON MORN SEAS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 4
FT RANGE HOWEVER SOME 5 FOOTER MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP SRN TIER DUE
TO SWELLS FROM ALBERTO.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 545 AM SUN...TS ALBERTO WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE FEATURE FOR
THE BEGINNING PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. LATEST NHC TRACK HAS TS
ALBERTO MOVING ALONG THE SC COAST MON...THEN MOVING NE OFF THE NC
COAST TUE INTO TUE EVENING. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM...DUE TO CONTINUED
MODEL DIFFERENCES. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THE LATEST NHC TRACK FOR
FORECAST PACKAGE. FOLLOWING THE LATEST TRACK TS FORCE WINDS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. WENT CLOSER TO SWAN FOR SEAS...PEAKING
AT 5-7FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND MARINERS ARE URGED CLOSELY MONITOR
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON OUR
COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY
WED...FROM S TO N. AT THIS TIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH PREDOMINATE S/SW FLOW
AOB 15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD
000
FXUS62 KMHX 200950
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
550 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL DRIFT WEST
AND REACH THE NORTHERN COAST TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
LIFT NORTH MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST IS FORECAST OT DRIFT A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWEST TODAY THEN
STALL AND BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR ALBERTO. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION MID WEEK THEN SLOWLY SHIFT E OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUN...TS ALBERTO WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE S TODAY WITH
NO IMPACT ACROSS ERN NC. A COLD CORE LOW LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES
ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT W TOWARD THE COAST TODAY.
AS THIS LOW APPROACHES ALL MDLS SHOW LOW LVL MOISTURE INCREASING
FROM E TO W. OVERALL THE MDLS ARE SHOWING LESS MOISTURE AND INSTAB
TODAY SO HAVE LOWERED POPS AND QPF...STILL HAVE CHC POPS
DEVELOPING CST TO SLIGHT CHC INLAND. WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER WITH JUST A LITTLE SUN SHLD SEE HIGHS
REACH LOWER TO MID 70S. EXTENDED HIGH SURF TILL EARLY AFTN FOR
AREAS N OF CAPE HAT AS BUOY EAST OF RODANTHE STILL SHOWS 10 FOOT
SWELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SUN...WEAK LOW PRES WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER NRN COAST
THIS EVENING THEN VERY SLOWLY DRIFT N OVERNIGHT. NO SIGNIF CHANGES
FROM PREV FCST WITH CONT CHC POPS CST TO SLIGHT CHC DEEP INLAND.
LOW LVL MOISTURE CONTS TO INCREASE AND EXPECT MILD TEMPS WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. TS ALBERTO WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE S
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NO SIGNIF IMPACTS THIS FAR N.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 545 AM SUN...TS ALBERTO WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
EVENTUAL TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT CONTINUED TO
FOLLOW THE LATEST NHC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THIS
PACKAGE. LATEST NHC TRACK HAS TS ALBERTO MOVING ALONG THE SC
COAST MON...THEN UP AND ALONG THE NC COAST TUE AND TUE NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME BASED ON LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE...IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE
LIKELY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS. BASED ON CURRENT
TRACK/INTENSITY MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES WILL BE POSSIBLE...AN
ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE BEACHES...AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. AGAIN SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS EVOLVING SYSTEM.
DID NOT MAKE SIG CHANGES BEYOND WED. ONCE AGAIN MODELS DEVELOP
AN UPPER CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SE OR OFFSHORE AND ITS PLACEMENT
WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW UNSETTLED IT WILL REMAIN ACROSS ERN NC
WED-SAT. GENERALLY FOLLOWING HPC/ECMWF GUIDANCE WITH THE UPPER LOW
NEAR THE AREA AND WILL KEEP SLT CHC TO CHC POPS EACH DAY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED BUT IF THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS A BIT FARTHER
OFFSHORE...AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS...POPS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER WITH
UPPER RIDGING ALOFT. FOR THE MOST PART TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR
SEASONABLE NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE L80S INLAND TO 70S ALONG THE
COAST AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SUN...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
AFTN WITH DECK OF SCU SPREADING IN THIS MORNING. MDLS SHOWS LOW
LVL MOISTURE INCREASING LATER THIS AFTN AND INTO TONIGHT SO
LOWERED CIGS INTO MVFR RANGE LATE TODAY AND CONT THAT TONIGHT.
CIGS COULD EVEN LOWER TO IFR BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO GO
THAT LOW. OVERALL PRECIP THREAT INLAND LOOKS LIMITED SO NO
MENTION IN TAFS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH TS ALBERTO PASSING WELL
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN WED INTO THU
WITH SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...AS WEAK LOW ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS APPROACHES
CST TODAY MOST ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS GRAD DIMINISHING TO LESS
THAN 15 KTS MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE. SEAS HAVE STARTED TO SUBSIDE
A BIT SRN TIER SO HAVE SCA ENDING S OF OCRACOKE AT 7AM. SEAS MUCH
LARGER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS AND SCA WILL CONT THESE AREAS INTO
TONIGHT AS WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE SWELL TO SUBSIDE. WITH THE
WEAK LOW NEAR THE NRN COAST OVERNIGHT AND TS ALBERTO WELL TO THE S
EXPECT LIGHT NE TO E WINDS. BY EARLY MON MORN SEAS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE HOWEVER SOME 5 FOOTER MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP
SRN TIER DUE TO SWELLS FROM ALBERTO.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 545 AM SUN...TS ALBERTO WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE FEATURE FOR
THE BEGINNING PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. LATEST NHC TRACK HAS TS
ALBERTO MOVING ALONG THE SC COAST MON...THEN MOVING NE OFF THE NC
COAST TUE INTO TUE EVENING. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM...DUE TO CONTINUED
MODEL DIFFERENCES. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THE LATEST NHC TRACK FOR
FORECAST PACKAGE. FOLLOWING THE LATEST TRACK TS FORCE WINDS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. WENT CLOSER TO SWAN FOR SEAS...PEAKING
AT 5-7FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND MARINERS ARE URGED CLOSELY MONITOR
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON OUR
COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY
WED...FROM S TO N. AT THIS TIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH PREDOMINATE S/SW FLOW
AOB 15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ156-
158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD/SK
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD
000
FXUS62 KILM 200826
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
425 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE AS IT MAKES ITS
PASS BY THE CAPE FEAR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHOULD BRING SOME SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM SUNDAY...TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED ABOUT 155
MILES SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE CAPE FEAR AND STILL MOVING TO THE SW
EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN A FLARE UP IN CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION SINCE MIDNIGHT. THE HURRICANE CENTER HAS THE
STORM REVERSING COURSE AND HEADING BACK TO THE NE TONIGHT. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS ALBERTO MAKING ITS CLOSET APPROACH LATE MON
INTO TUE AS IT MOVES UP THE CAROLINA COAST AND ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. THE TRACK MAY CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY BOTH IN TIME AND SPACE
AND SO YOU ARE ADVISED TO CLOSELY MONITOR LATER FORECASTS.
WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY AT THE BEACHES LATE MON INTO TUE. TIDES WILL
BE ELEVATED. THE NEW MOON IS TONIGHT. TIDAL DEPARTURES ON THE ORDER
OF 1/2 TO 1 FT ABOVE PREDICTED WILL BRING THE EVE HIGH TIDE CLOSE TO
ACTION STAGE. WE DO NOT EXPECT COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS TO BE MET
TONIGHT. EXPECT TIDES MON NIGHT WILL BE HIGHER AND THERE MAY BE SOME
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS FALLING.
ANOTHER TOUGH FORECAST REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WILL INCLUDE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE GEORGETOWN COAST EARLY ON WITH POPS TRENDING
HIGHER FURTHER N AND ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AS THE
PERIOD PROGRESSES. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE W OF
ALBERTO...WILL CONFINE POPS TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. THE TRACK OF
ALBERTO WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WE RECEIVE.
THE FURTHER OFF THE COAST IT TRACKS...THE SMALLER OUR RISK FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...ALBERTO WILL BE ACCELERATING NEWARD ON MONDAY
MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE CAPE FEAR REGION EARLY MONDAY
NIGHT. ALBERTO IS A VERY COMPACT SYSTEM AND ITS TRACK IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AS IT HAS YET TO MAKE ITS HALF-LOOP LIKE TURNAROUND. THIS
TRANSLATES TO A FAIRLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO RAINFALL
FROM THE STORM AS IT PASSES BY. WILL CAP POPS IN THE 20-30 RANGE FOR
NOW HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. AREAS INLAND WILL NOT BE SEEING RAIN
FROM THE SYSTEM BUT ISO COVERAGE SLATED FOR THE WHOLE AREA DUE TO A
WEAK TROUGHINESS ALOFT. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE STORM WILL ALSO KEEP
MOST OR EVEN ALL OF THE NOTICEABLE WIND OVER WATER WITH PERHAPS ONLY
BALD HEAD ISLAND EVER GETTING ALL THAT BREEZY. IT BEARS REPEATING AT
THIS POINT THAT THIS ALL HINGES ON THE CURRENTLY HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
TRACK OF THE STORM. WITH ALBERTO OUT OF THE PICTURE TUESDAY ANOTHER
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SCATTERED TSTM COVERAGE
WITH A DIURNAL MAX DURING PEAK HEATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
ACCORDING TO SOME OF THE SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS THURSDAY AS WELL.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE HELD A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO BY CLOUD COVER
AND AN ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW CAUSED BY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF NEW
ENGLAND COAST. MEANWHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL NOT SHOW MUCH DEVIATION
FROM CLIMO. HEIGHTS BUILD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THIS FEATURE PULLS
AWAY AND SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS SUMMER-LIKE IN ITS
WEAKNESS. LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO SEASONABLE AT
A MINIMUM...PROBABLY ABOVE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH VALID PERIOD...WITH EXCEPTION OF
POTENTIAL MVFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO LOWERED CIGS.
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH LINGERING SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 8
KTS WILL PREVAIL...WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KTS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE PERIOD...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...THUS HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH AREA-WIDE. BY LATE AFTERNOON...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AS INDICATED BY CURRENT GUIDANCE...
WILL POTENTIALLY CREATE MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FT AT THE COASTAL
SITES. VCSH/-RA WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER SUNSET...GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
PREVAILING AOB 10 KTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/TEMPO
IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM SUNDAY...TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED S OF THE
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE STORM WAS STILL DRIFTING TO THE
SW...BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TO THE NE...PERHAPS MAKING ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS...MON NIGHT INTO TUE. MARINERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR LATER FORECASTS.
FOR TODAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE NE TODAY AND FROM THE NE OR ENE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS OF UP
TO 15 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED. SEAS SHOULD BE HIGHEST THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF TODAY...TRENDING LOWER AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES. WILL
INITIALIZE WITH 5 TO 8 FT SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
LATER MON AND MON NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM SUNDAY...ALBERTO TO BRING VERY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE EXACT DETAILS STILL SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FUTURE FORECAST REFINEMENTS AND UPDATES FROM NHC.
WIND/SEAS FORECAST IS DIFFICULT SINCE NO PARTICULAR MODEL HANDLES
THE STORM VERY WELL DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EVEN SO...BASING
SWAN UPON NHC BASED WIND GRIDS STILL BUILDS LOCAL SEAS TO 8 FT OR SO
WITH SOLID LOWER END TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. EVEN HIGHER SEAS
WILL BE FOUND OUTSIDE OF 20NM WITH WINDS OFFSHORE DURING THEIR
WINDOW OF HIGHEST SPEEDS MONDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD PROBABLY ENDS WITH
NO BETTER THAN SCEC OVER NORTHERN ZONES ESPECIALLY AS SEAS MAY BE
SLOW TO SUBSIDE AS BACKSWELL FROM ALBERTO MIXES WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND CHOP FROM A PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO LEAVE THE
MIDATLANTIC REGION DURING THE LONG TERM. WHILE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
TREMENDOUS WEATHER-MAKER IT SHOULD KEEP A WEAK TROUGH IN PLACE OVER
THE LANDMASS AND A GENERAL SWRLY WIND OVER THE WATERS. SOME
UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO THE SPEED AT WHICH THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES OFF
TO THE EAST. ONCE IT DOES THERE WILL BE A VERY SUMMER-LIKE WEAKNESS
IN PRESSURE PATTERN LEFT BEHIND CAUSING WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. SOME GUIDANCE HAS THIS HAPPENING BY THURSDAY WHILE OTHERS
PUSH IT OFF AN ADDITIONAL DAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL/RJD
000
FXUS62 KMHX 200721
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
321 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL DRIFT WEST
AND REACH THE NORTHERN COAST TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
LIFT NORTH MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST IS FORECAST OT DRIFT A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWEST TODAY THEN
STALL AND BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR ALBERTO. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION MID WEEK THEN SLOWLY SHIFT E OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUN...TS ALBERTO WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE S TODAY WITH
NO IMPACT ACROSS ERN NC. A COLD CORE LOW LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES
ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT W TOWARD THE COAST TODAY.
AS THIS LOW APPROACHES ALL MDLS SHOW LOW LVL MOISTURE INCREASING
FROM E TO W. OVERALL THE MDLS ARE SHOWING LESS MOISTURE AND INSTAB
TODAY SO HAVE LOWERED POPS AND QPF...STILL HAVE CHC POPS
DEVELOPING CST TO SLIGHT CHC INLAND. WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER WITH JUST A LITTLE SUN SHLD SEE HIGHS
REACH LOWER TO MID 70S. EXTENDED HIGH SURF TILL EARLY AFTN FOR
AREAS N OF CAPE HAT AS BUOY EAST OF RODANTHE STILL SHOWS 10 FOOT
SWELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SUN...WEAK LOW PRES WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER NRN COAST
THIS EVENING THEN VERY SLOWLY DRIFT N OVERNIGHT. NO SIGNIF CHANGES
FROM PREV FCST WITH CONT CHC POPS CST TO SLIGHT CHC DEEP INLAND.
LOW LVL MOISTURE CONTS TO INCREASE AND EXPECT MILD TEMPS WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. TS ALBERTO WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE S
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NO SIGNIF IMPACTS THIS FAR N.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...TS ALBERTO WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
EVENTUAL TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT CONTINUED TO
FOLLOW THE LATEST NHC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THIS
PACKAGE. LATEST NHC TRACK HAS TS ALBERTO MOVING ALONG THE SC
COAST MON...THEN UP AND ALONG THE NC COAST TUE AND TUE NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME BASED ON LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE...IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE
LIKELY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS. BASED ON CURRENT TRACK/INTENSITY
MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MINOR OCEAN OVERWASH
SOUTH OF OREGON INLET...AN ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE
BEACHES...AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. AGAIN
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO ALL
INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS EVOLVING
SYSTEM.
DID NOT MAKE SIG CHANGES BEYOND WED. ONCE AGAIN MODELS DEVELOP
AN UPPER CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SE OR OFFSHORE AND ITS PLACEMENT
WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW UNSETTLED IT WILL REMAIN ACROSS ERN NC
WED-SAT. GENERALLY FOLLOWING HPC/ECMWF GUIDANCE WITH THE UPPER LOW
NEAR THE AREA AND WILL KEEP SLT CHC TO CHC POPS EACH DAY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED BUT IF THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS A BIT FARTHER
OFFSHORE...AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS...POPS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER WITH
UPPER RIDGING ALOFT. FOR THE MOST PART TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR
SEASONABLE NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE L80S INLAND TO 70S ALONG THE
COAST AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SUN...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
AFTN WITH DECK OF SCU SPREADING IN THIS MORNING. MDLS SHOWS LOW
LVL MOISTURE INCREASING LATER THIS AFTN AND INTO TONIGHT SO
LOWERED CIGS INTO MVFR RANGE LATE TODAY AND CONT THAT TONIGHT.
CIGS COULD EVEN LOWER TO IFR BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO GO
THAT LOW. OVERALL PRECIP THREAT INLAND LOOKS LIMITED SO NO
MENTION IN TAFS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH TS ALBERTO POSSIBLY
PASSING WELL OFFSHORE TUESDAY. PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN WED INTO THU WITH SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...AS WEAK LOW ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS APPROACHES
CST TODAY MOST ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS GRAD DIMINISHING TO LESS
THAN 15 KTS MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE. SEAS HAVE STARTED TO SUBSIDE
A BIT SRN TIER SO HAVE SCA ENDING S OF OCRACOKE AT 7AM. SEAS MUCH
LARGER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS AND SCA WILL CONT THESE AREAS INTO
TONIGHT AS WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE SWELL TO SUBSIDE. WITH THE
WEAK LOW NEAR THE NRN COAST OVERNIGHT AND TS ALBERTO WELL TO THE S
EXPECT LIGHT NE TO E WINDS. BY EARLY MON MORN SEAS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE HOWEVER SOME 5 FOOTER MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP
SRN TIER DUE TO SWELLS FROM ALBERTO.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...TS ALBERTO WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE FEATURE FOR
THE BEGINNING PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. LATEST NHC TRACK HAS TS
ALBERTO MOVING ALONG THE SC COAST MON...THEN MOVING NE OFF THE NC
COAST TUE INTO TUE EVENING. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM...DUE TO CONTINUED
MODEL DIFFERENCES. FOLLOWED LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS
PACKAGE...THOUGH DID CAP WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE
NIGHT. FOLLOWING THE LATEST TRACK TS FORCE WINDS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. WENT CLOSER TO SWAN FOR
SEAS...PEAKING AT 8-10FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. THERE IS STILL
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND MARINERS ARE URGED
CLOSELY MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS POTENTIAL
IMPACTS ON OUR COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY
WED...FROM S TO N. AT THIS TIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH PREDOMINATE S/SW FLOW
AOB 15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ156-
158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD/SK
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD
000
FXUS62 KRAH 200716
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE MONDAY... THEN STRENGTHEN TO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM SUNDAY....
THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS IS RATHER COMPLICATED DUE
TO THE INTERACTION OF TS ALBERTO OFF THE SC COAST....A WEAK SURFACE
LOW OFF THE VA COAST....AND A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST COAST.
THE CURRENT OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK FOR TS ALBERTO SHOWS THE
STORM MEANDERING SOUTH TODAY AND THEN MOVING BACK TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND PASSING BY THE NC COAST LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME...THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE VA COAST IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE OUTER BANKS TODAY AS
SEVERAL VORT CENTERS WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW. THIS WILL BRING SOME WEAK FORCING INTO NORTHEAST NC THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL IS RATHER DRY WITH PW
VALUES AROUND 0.6" AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S. THE STRONGEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS INSTEAD FORECAST TO BE FROM THE DELMARVA NORTH
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THUS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK LOW AND SOME SHALLOW ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS EVENING...SPREADING
WESTWARD OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT
AND POPS WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE. GUIDANCE
IS MOSTLY WARMER FOR TODAY THAN ON SATURDAY AS 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES INCH UP ABOUT 5M TO 1385M. INCREASING CLOUD COVER IN
THE EAST LATE IN THE DAY SHOULD CREATE A GRADIENT WITH LOWER 80S
WEST TO UPPER 70S EAST. TONIGHT...LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
AS DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO CREEP UP...PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST. MID 50S
WEST TO LOWER 60S EAST.
THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO HINGE MORE ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF TS ALBERTO. WHILE NO DIRECT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
INLAND AT THIS TIME...WARM MOIST ADVECTION OFF THE ATLANTIC AND THE
PRESENCE OF AN 850MB TROUGH SHIFTING INLAND SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS. WIND FIELDS WILL BE WEAK BETWEEN
THE UPPER LOW AND A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...BUT PW WILL
INCREASE BACK TO 1.25" OR GREATER AND MODELS SHOW AROUND 500 J/KG IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NC OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING THE OHIO VALLEY LATE MONDAY....BUT BASED ON CURRENT
PROJECTIONS THAT CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP TO LATE IN THE DAY TO REACH
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
IN THE FORECAST...POPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FOR 20 WEST TO 40 EAST.
THICKNESSES AGAIN RISE OVER SUNDAY...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD HIGHS
BACK SLIGHTLY AND LOWER 80S SOUTHWEST TO UPPER 70S NORTHEAST ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM SUNDAY...
FOR MONDAY NIGHT: THE LATEST NHC FORECAST FOR ALBERTO PLACES ITS
CENTER ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF CHS AT 8 PM EDT MONDAY EVENING...
MOVING TOWARD THE NE ROUGHLY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF
STREAM. WHILE THE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM ON CENTRAL NC WILL
BE MINIMAL... IT IS LIKELY TO ALTER THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT SUCH
THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF OUR FORECAST REMAINS QUITE LOW.
SOLUTIONS VARY AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS NOT ONLY WITH ALBERTO`S
CIRCULATION BUT ALSO WITH THE SURFACE LOW NOW OFFSHORE EAST OF THE
NC/VA STATE LINE... AS WELL AS A LOW THAT THE MODELS DEVELOP OFF THE
EAST COAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE PATHS AND INTENSITY OF ALL THREE LOWS
VARY CONSIDERABLY AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS... ALTHOUGH COMMON
THEMES ARE FOR THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF TO TAKE THE BAHAMAS LOW NORTHWARD
AND KEEP IT WELL OFFSHORE... WHILE THE LOW OFF THE VA/NC BORDER
WEAKENS AND DRIFTS WESTWARD INTO NC/VA AS AN OPEN INVERTED TROUGH.
THE PICTURE IS EQUALLY AS MURKY ALOFT... WHERE THE DUAL MID LEVEL
LOWS OFFSHORE (EAST OF CHS AND ORF) APPEAR TO PIVOT COUNTERCLOCKWISE
WHILE DRIFTING WEST/ONSHORE... AND MODELS SHOW THESE CONSOLIDATING
INTO A SINGLE LOW. IN EITHER CASE... BY MONDAY EVENING... THE
RESULTANT LOW SHOULD DEVOLVE INTO AN OPEN MID LEVEL WAVE LIFTING TO
OUR NORTHEAST... PROPELLED BY A DEEPENING TROUGH... A PRODUCT OF THE
LOW NOW OVER NEBRASKA AND A WAVE NOW OVER MONTANA... THAT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH MI AND THE
OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND HELPS PULL THE MIDATLANTIC TROUGH
NORTHEASTWARD... MUCH OF CENTRAL NC WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS. THE PRESENCE OF
THE RETREATING SHEAR AXIS OVER NORTHEAST NC AND ERN VA COMBINED WITH
A SLOW LOWERING OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN OUR NORTH/EAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT... FOCUSED ALONG THE DEPARTING TROUGH WHERE
VERY WEAK/LIGHT/CONFLUENT SURFACE FLOW MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG
EARLY... BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM THE WEST AND WSW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT INCOMING FROM THE WEST. WILL HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SW RANGING TO CHANCE EAST MONDAY EVENING...
TAPERING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE FAR NORTH ONLY OVERNIGHT. MILD LOWS
OF 60-65 LOOK REASONABLE.
FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: THIS MAY END UP AS THE MOST STORMY
PORTION OF THIS 7-DAY FORECAST. MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT BUT OVERALL AGREE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. ALL SOLUTIONS LEAN TOWARD AN INTENSIFYING SYSTEM LIKELY
CULMINATING IN A CLOSED LOW SWINGING SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE OVER THE
KY/WV/VA BORDER REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES BY
AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC AS DOES PRECIPITABLE WATER WHICH IS
PREDICTED TO EXCEED 150% OF NORMAL... WITH RISING 850 MB MOISTURE
FLUX CONVERGENCE. ALONG WITH THE IMPROVING MOISTURE... LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT STRENGTHENS AS WELL WITH LOW LEVEL MASS
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT ENTERING THE WRN PIEDMONT... MID LEVEL
DPVA... 30 M MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS... AND INCREASING UPPER
DIVERGENCE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC. WILL HOLD ONTO HIGH CHANCE
POPS... 30-40% WEST TO 50% EAST... FOCUSED ON THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
GFS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO JUST 20-25 KTS...
HOWEVER GIVEN THE IMPROVING DYNAMICS... RISING 850-500 MB LAPSE
RATES TO 6.5-7.0 C/KM... AND WHAT IS PROJECTED TO BE MODERATE
INSTABILITY (INCLUDING 500-800 J/KG OF CAPE IN THE -10C TO -30C
LAYER)... A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS 80-85 WITH GOOD
PREFRONTAL WARM AIR ADVECTION. POPS SHOULD DECREASE SLIGHTLY WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE MID LEVELS SLIGHTLY DRY OUT... HOWEVER THE
PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW JUST TO OUR WEST... LINGERING LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE... AND THE STILL-STEEP LAPSE RATES NECESSITATE
LEAVING IN A CHANCE OF SLOW-MOVING STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS
59-64. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM SUNDAY...
FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/SRN VA THROUGH THURSDAY AS
SHOWN BY THE ECMWF... WHILE THE SURFACE COOL FRONT DISSIPATES OVER
THE PIEDMONT. WITH A LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTH OR SE
AREAWIDE AND NO STRONG DRYING EVIDENT... WILL RETAIN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS... FOCUSING PRIMARILY ON THE EASTERN CWA (WHERE
MOISTURE SHOULD BE BETTER) AND IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING.
THICKNESSES HOLDING ABOVE NORMAL BALANCED BY BROKEN DIURNAL AND
MID/HIGH CLOUDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
ABOVE-NORMAL LOWS IN THE 60-65 RANGE.
FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY: THE GFS IS FASTER THAN BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS`S PREVIOUS RUN IN MOVING THE MID LEVEL LOW EASTWARD OUT OF THE
AREA. AS SUCH... THE GFS BUILDS STRONG RIDGING FROM SE TX THROUGH
THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AND MID SOUTH EARLY FRIDAY... LEADING TO A
CLOSED ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST TO OUR WEST BY SATURDAY WHICH
DRIVES OUR THICKNESSES TO 25+ M ABOVE NORMAL. BY CONTRAST... THE
12Z/19 ECMWF HOLDS THE WEAKENING LOW OVER THE NC OUTER BANKS EARLY
FRIDAY THEN DROPS IT SSW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST... WHICH RESULTS IN
A MUCH MORE WESTWARD ANTICYCLONE CENTER OVER MISSOURI AND A MUCH
LESS DRAMATIC WARMUP. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS A LITTLE FASTER
THAN THE OP ECMWF... RESEMBLING A MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD SOLUTION
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS... A REASONABLE APPROACH GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SUCH A CLOSED-OFF PATTERN. WILL CONTINUE TREND
FROM EARLIER FORECAST PACKAGES TOWARD DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER...
ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE MOST INTENSE HEAT SHOULD HOLD JUST TO OUR
WEST AND NW. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH TROPICAL STORM
ALBERTO OFF THE SC COAST AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VA COAST.
THE LOW OFF THE VA COAST IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE OUTER BANKS THIS EVENING...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN NC. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO
GET A HANDLE ON THE STORM SYSTEMS OFFSHORE AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS SOMEWHAT LOW DUE TO THIS. THE PROBABILITY OF LOW STRATUS WILL
INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST AFTER 21Z AND AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT KRWI/KRDU/KFAY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH MUCH
LESS OF A CHANCE AT KGSO AND KINT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR
TO EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN AND IMPACT KRWI OVERNIGHT..BUT THIS HAS BEEN LEFT OUT
OF THE CURRENT TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
FOR THE LONG TERM...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE TRACK AND INLAND IMPACT OF TS ALBERTO...BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK BRINGS IT ALONG THE NC COAST ON TUESDAY. MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK
AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER/LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...SMITH
000
FXUS62 KILM 200715
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
315 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE AS IT MAKES ITS
PASS BY THE CAPE FEAR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHOULD BRING SOME SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COAST THIS MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED ABOUT 155 MILES SSW OF THE MOUTH
OF THE CAPE FEAR AND STILL MOVING TO THE SW EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE HAS BEEN A FLARE UP IN CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION SINCE MIDNIGHT. THE HURRICANE CENTER HAS THE STORM
REVERSING COURSE AND HEADING BACK TO THE NE TONIGHT. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS ALBERTO MAKING ITS CLOSET APPROACH LATE MON INTO EARLY
TUE AS IT MOVES UP THE CAROLINA COAST AND ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. THE TRACK MAY CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY BOTH IN TIME AND SPACE
AND SO YOU ARE ADVISED TO CLOSELY MONITOR LATER FORECASTS.
WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE AT THE BEACHES
LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE. TIDES WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED. THE NEW MOON
IS TONIGHT. TIDAL DEPARTURES ON THE ORDER OF 1/2 TO 1 FT WILL BRING
THE EVE HIGH TIDE CLOSE TO ACTION STAGE. WE DO NOT EXPECT COASTAL
FLOOD THRESHOLDS TO BE MET TONIGHT. EXPECT TIDES MON NIGHT WILL BE
HIGHER AND THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF
SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS FALLING.
ANOTHER TOUGH FORECAST REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WILL INCLUDE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE GEORGETOWN COAST EARLY ON WITH POPS TRENDING
HIGHER FURTHER N AND ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AS THE
PERIOD PROGRESSES. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE W OF
ALBERTO...WILL CONFINE POPS TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. THE TRACK OF
ALBERTO WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WE RECEIVE.
THE FURTHER OFF THE COAST IT TRACKS...THE SMALLER OUR RISK FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...ALBERTO WILL BE ACCELERATING NEWARD ON MONDAY
MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE CAPE FEAR REGION EARLY MONDAY
NIGHT. ALBERTO IS A VERY COMPACT SYSTEM AND ITS TRACK IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AS IT HAS YET TO MAKE ITS HALF-LOOP LIKE TURNAROUND. THIS
TRANSLATES TO A FAIRLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO RAINFALL
FROM THE STORM AS IT PASSES BY. WILL CAP POPS IN THE 20-30 RANGE FOR
NOW HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. AREAS INLAND WILL NOT BE SEEING RAIN
FROM THE SYSTEM BUT ISO COVERAGE SLATED FOR THE WHOLE AREA DUE TO A
WEAK TROUGHINESS ALOFT. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE STORM WILL ALSO KEEP
MOST OR EVEN ALL OF THE NOTICEABLE WIND OVER WATER WITH PERHAPS ONLY
BALD HEAD ISLAND EVER GETTING ALL THAT BREEZY. IT BEARS REPEATING AT
THIS POINT THAT THIS ALL HINGES ON THE CURRENTLY HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
TRACK OF THE STORM. WITH ALBERTO OUT OF THE PICTURE TUESDAY ANOTHER
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SCATTERED TSTM COVERAGE
WITH A DIURNAL MAX DURING PEAK HEATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
ACCORDING TO SOME OF THE SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS THURSDAY AS WELL.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE HELD A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO BY CLOUD COVER
AND AN ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW CAUSED BY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF NEW
ENGLAND COAST. MEANWHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL NOT SHOW MUCH DEVIATION
FROM CLIMO. HEIGHTS BUILD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THIS FEATURE PULLS
AWAY AND SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS SUMMER-LIKE IN ITS
WEAKNESS. LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO SEASONABLE AT
A MINIMUM...PROBABLY ABOVE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH VALID PERIOD...WITH EXCEPTION OF
POTENTIAL MVFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO LOWERED CIGS.
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH LINGERING SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 8
KTS WILL PREVAIL...WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KTS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE PERIOD...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...THUS HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH AREA-WIDE. BY LATE AFTERNOON...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AS INDICATED BY CURRENT GUIDANCE...
WILL POTENTIALLY CREATE MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FT AT THE COASTAL
SITES. VCSH/-RA WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER SUNSET...GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
PREVAILING AOB 10 KTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/TEMPO
IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED S OF THE WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE STORM WAS STILL DRIFTING TO THE SW...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
TURN BACK TO THE NE...PERHAPS MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH LATE MON
INTO EARLY TUE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WATERS...ESPECIALLY LATER MON INTO TUE. MARINERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR LATER FORECASTS.
FOR TODAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THE ADVISORY
MAY BE REPLACED WITH TROPICAL HEADLINES LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE NE TODAY AND FROM THE NE OR ENE TONIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS OF UP TO 15 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED. SEAS SHOULD BE HIGHEST
THROUGH THIS MORNING...TRENDING LOWER AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES. WILL
INITIALIZE WITH 5 TO 8 FT SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY RAMP
HIGHER BEGINNING MON.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...ALBERTO TO BRING VERY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE EXACT DETAILS STILL SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FUTURE FORECAST REFINEMENTS AND UPDATES FROM NHC. NOT
MESSING WITH HEADLINES AT THIS POINT SINCE TROPICAL WATCHES/WARNINGS
APPEAR TO BE ON THE HORIZON. WIND/SEAS FORECAST IS DIFFICULT SINCE
NO PARTICULAR MODEL HANDLES THE STORM VERY WELL DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. EVEN SO...BASING SWAN UPON NHC BASED WIND GRIDS STILL
BUILDS LOCAL SEAS TO 8 FT OR SO WITH SOLID LOWER END TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS. EVEN HIGHER SEAS WILL BE FOUND OUTSIDE OF 20NM WITH
WINDS OFFSHORE DURING THEIR WINDOW OF HIGHEST SPEEDS MONDAY NIGHT.
THE PERIOD PROBABLY ENDS WITH NO BETTER THAN SCEC OVER NORTHERN
ZONES ESPECIALLY AS SEAS MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE AS BACKSWELL FROM
ALBERTO MIXES WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND CHOP FROM A PIEDMONT TROUGH
DEVELOPING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO LEAVE THE
MIDATLANTIC REGION DURING THE LONG TERM. WHILE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
TREMENDOUS WEATHER-MAKER IT SHOULD KEEP A WEAK TROUGH IN PLACE OVER
THE LANDMASS AND A GENERAL SWRLY WIND OVER THE WATERS. SOME
UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO THE SPEED AT WHICH THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES OFF
TO THE EAST. ONCE IT DOES THERE WILL BE A VERY SUMMERLIKE WEAKNESS
IN PRESSURE PATTERN LEFT BEHIND CAUSING WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. SOME GUIDANCE HAS THIS HAPPENING BY THURSDAY WHILE OTHERS
PUSH IT OFF AN ADDITIONAL DAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL/RJD
000
FXUS62 KRAH 200710 RRA
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO LINGERS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM SUNDAY....
THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS IS RATHER COMPLICATED DUE
TO THE INTERACTION OF TS ALBERTO OFF THE SC COAST....A WEAK SURFACE
LOW OFF THE VA COAST....AND A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST COAST.
THE CURRENT OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK FOR TS ALBERTO SHOWS THE
STORM MEANDERING SOUTH TODAY AND THEN MOVING BACK TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND PASSING BY THE NC COAST LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME...THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE VA COAST IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE OUTER BANKS TODAY AS
SEVERAL VORT CENTERS WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW. THIS WILL BRING SOME WEAK FORCING INTO NORTHEAST NC THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL IS RATHER DRY WITH PW
VALUES AROUND 0.6" AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S. THE STRONGEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS INSTEAD FORECAST TO BE FROM THE DELMARVA NORTH
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THUS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK LOW AND SOME SHALLOW ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS EVENING...SPREADING
WESTWARD OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT
AND POPS WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE. GUIDANCE
IS MOSTLY WARMER FOR TODAY THAN ON SATURDAY AS 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES INCH UP ABOUT 5M TO 1385M. INCREASING CLOUD COVER IN
THE EAST LATE IN THE DAY SHOULD CREATE A GRADIENT WITH LOWER 80S
WEST TO UPPER 70S EAST. TONIGHT...LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
AS DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO CREEP UP...PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST. MID 50S
WEST TO LOWER 60S EAST.
THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO HINGE MORE ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF TS ALBERTO. WHILE NO DIRECT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
INLAND AT THIS TIME...WARM MOIST ADVECTION OFF THE ATLANTIC AND THE
PRESENCE OF AN 850MB TROUGH SHIFTING INLAND SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS. WIND FIELDS WILL BE WEAK BETWEEN
THE UPPER LOW AND A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...BUT PW WILL
INCREASE BACK TO 1.25" OR GREATER AND MODELS SHOW AROUND 500 J/KG IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NC OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING THE OHIO VALLEY LATE MONDAY....BUT BASED ON CURRENT
PROJECTIONS THAT CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP TO LATE IN THE DAY TO REACH
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
IN THE FORECAST...POPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FOR 20 WEST TO 40 EAST.
THICKNESSES AGAIN RISE OVER SUNDAY...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD HIGHS
BACK SLIGHTLY AND LOWER 80S SOUTHWEST TO UPPER 70S NORTHEAST ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM SATURDAY...
MODELS ARE HAVING GREAT DIFFICULTY WITH THE CURRENT LOW PRESSURE
AREAS OFF THE VA AND SC COAST. THIS LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE
FORECASTS FOR THIS WEEK. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE DAYS WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY... WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY AND EVEN THURSDAY.
THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION RIGHT NOW APPEARS TO BE THAT ONE MID-UPPER
LOW WILL FINALLY GET PULLED NE AWAY FROM OUR REGION MONDAY... BUT IT
WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL APPROACH
WESTERN NC LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
(PER THE LATEST NAM). WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE HIGHEST POP
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE WEST... AND TUESDAY IN THE CENTRAL
AND EAST. DUE TO THE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS... WE WILL CARRY
HIGH CHANCE POPS AND NOT CARRY LIKELY POP UNTIL LATER FORECASTS ARE
CONSIDERED. QPF OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH FOR THE MON-WED PERIOD SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXTEND THE CURRENT WET PERIOD THAT HAS BEEN GOING FOR
SEVERAL WEEKS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL INCLUDE... VARIABLY CLOUDY MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARMER AND HUMID WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S. HIGHS 80-85. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
LOWS IN THE 60S. HIGHS 78-84. A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED-THU. LOWS IN THE 60S. HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM SATURDAY...
WITH DIFFERENCES ABOUND IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE
DETAILS OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND NC/VA MID WEEK... WE
WILL FOLLOW THE PROPOSED BLEND OF 00Z ECMWF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTIONS.
THIS POINTS TOWARD A BUILDING MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL EC HAS
BEEN INDICATING A LINGERING CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW NEAR THE NC/SC
COAST INTO FRI AND SAT. GIVEN THE RECENT BOUT WITH CLOSED LOWS OVER
OUR REGION LATELY... THIS SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE... BUT IT IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY TELECONNECTIONS AND MOST ENSEMBLE FORECASTS.
WITH THIS IN MIND... WE WILL TREND TO A DRIER AND WARMER FORECAST BY
NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IF THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DOES
DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY... OUR REGION WOULD STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A NE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WOULD KEEP OUR REGION
COOLER THAN THE AREAS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WHERE 90+ DEGREE HEAT
WILL BE FOUND (LOUISVILLE TO COLUMBUS TO PITTSBURGH AND NEW YORK
CITY). OUR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH TROPICAL STORM
ALBERTO OFF THE SC COAST AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VA COAST.
THE LOW OFF THE VA COAST IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE OUTER BANKS THIS EVENING...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN NC. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO
GET A HANDLE ON THE STORM SYSTEMS OFFSHORE AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS SOMEWHAT LOW DUE TO THIS. THE PROBABILITY OF LOW STRATUS WILL
INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST AFTER 21Z AND AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT KRWI/KRDU/KFAY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH MUCH
LESS OF A CHANCE AT KGSO AND KINT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR
TO EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN AND IMPACT KRWI OVERNIGHT..BUT THIS HAS BEEN LEFT OUT
OF THE CURRENT TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
FOR THE LONG TERM...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE TRACK AND INLAND IMPACT OF TS ALBERTO...BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK BRINGS IT ALONG THE NC COAST ON TUESDAY. MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK
AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER/LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...SMITH
000
FXUS62 KRAH 200556 RRA
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
150 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO LINGERS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...
THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2012 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
FORMED THIS AFTERNOON OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND AS SUCH
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEGUN ISSUING ADVISORIES. AS OF 7
PM...TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH OF
CAPE FEAR NC...HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH AND WAS MOVING
TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 3 MPH. THE STORM IS EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO CURVE
TO THE NORTHEAST AND TRACK PARALLEL TO THE EAST COAST...BUT REMAIN
OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS...WITH LITTLE TO NO MAJOR IMPACTS FOR
CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE
NORTHEAST (FOR MORE INFORMATION...REFER TO THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION
BELOW).
AS FOR TONIGHT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
AREA...RESULTING IN CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER. ONLY PERIODS OF HIGH
CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED AS CLOUDS ROTATE AROUND TROPICAL STORM
ALBERTO. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD NOT DO TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF HINDERING
COOLING TONIGHT AND WITH RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS (UPPER 40S TO NEAR
50 DEGREES) AND CALM TO LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...ANOTHER NIGHT OF
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS IS EXPECTED...GENERALLY
THE LOW/MID 50S. -KRR
FOR TOMORROW WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST WITH POPS ELEVATED
SLIGHTLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. CLOUD COVER AND ANY POTENTIAL
SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE TRIANGLE EASTWARDS WITH HIGHER
CHANCES OF BOTH FURTHER TO THE EAST. A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY THAN
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH AND OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF AN 80 DEGREE READING IN THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY RELAXED FROM SATURDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS SPEEDS OF 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM SATURDAY...
MODELS ARE HAVING GREAT DIFFICULTY WITH THE CURRENT LOW PRESSURE
AREAS OFF THE VA AND SC COAST. THIS LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE
FORECASTS FOR THIS WEEK. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE DAYS WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY... WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY AND EVEN THURSDAY.
THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION RIGHT NOW APPEARS TO BE THAT ONE MID-UPPER
LOW WILL FINALLY GET PULLED NE AWAY FROM OUR REGION MONDAY... BUT IT
WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL APPROACH
WESTERN NC LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
(PER THE LATEST NAM). WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE HIGHEST POP
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE WEST... AND TUESDAY IN THE CENTRAL
AND EAST. DUE TO THE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS... WE WILL CARRY
HIGH CHANCE POPS AND NOT CARRY LIKELY POP UNTIL LATER FORECASTS ARE
CONSIDERED. QPF OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH FOR THE MON-WED PERIOD SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXTEND THE CURRENT WET PERIOD THAT HAS BEEN GOING FOR
SEVERAL WEEKS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL INCLUDE... VARIABLY CLOUDY MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARMER AND HUMID WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S. HIGHS 80-85. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
LOWS IN THE 60S. HIGHS 78-84. A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED-THU. LOWS IN THE 60S. HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM SATURDAY...
WITH DIFFERENCES ABOUND IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE
DETAILS OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND NC/VA MID WEEK... WE
WILL FOLLOW THE PROPOSED BLEND OF 00Z ECMWF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTIONS.
THIS POINTS TOWARD A BUILDING MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL EC HAS
BEEN INDICATING A LINGERING CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW NEAR THE NC/SC
COAST INTO FRI AND SAT. GIVEN THE RECENT BOUT WITH CLOSED LOWS OVER
OUR REGION LATELY... THIS SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE... BUT IT IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY TELECONNECTIONS AND MOST ENSEMBLE FORECASTS.
WITH THIS IN MIND... WE WILL TREND TO A DRIER AND WARMER FORECAST BY
NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IF THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DOES
DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY... OUR REGION WOULD STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A NE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WOULD KEEP OUR REGION
COOLER THAN THE AREAS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WHERE 90+ DEGREE HEAT
WILL BE FOUND (LOUISVILLE TO COLUMBUS TO PITTSBURGH AND NEW YORK
CITY). OUR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH TROPICAL STORM
ALBERTO OFF THE SC COAST AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VA COAST.
THE LOW OFF THE VA COAST IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE OUTER BANKS THIS EVENING...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN NC. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO
GET A HANDLE ON THE STORM SYSTEMS OFFSHORE AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS SOMEWHAT LOW DUE TO THIS. THE PROBABILITY OF LOW STRATUS WILL
INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST AFTER 21Z AND AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT KRWI/KRDU/KFAY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH MUCH
LESS OF A CHANCE AT KGSO AND KINT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR
TO EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN AND IMPACT KRWI OVERNIGHT..BUT THIS HAS BEEN LEFT OUT
OF THE CURRENT TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
FOR THE LONG TERM...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE TRACK AND INLAND IMPACT OF TS ALBERTO...BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK BRINGS IT ALONG THE NC COAST ON TUESDAY. MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK
AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER/LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...KRR/ELLIS
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...SMITH
000
FXUS62 KILM 200550
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
150 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WILL MEANDER FOR A TIME TO OUR SOUTH BEFORE
HEADING TO THE NORTHEAST. ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST...
PASSING OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA AND
OFFSHORE BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK. REFER TO THE
LATEST ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 830 PM SATURDAY...THE BIRTH OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTA WILL NOW
BECOME THE WX STORY FOR THE NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM. MAIN WESTWARD
MOVING MOISTURE PLUME HAS DROPPED JUST SOUTH OF THE ILM CWA. WITH
ALBERTO MEANDERING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WILL LOWER POPS
ACROSS THE FA...ESPECIALLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE NOCTURNAL ATL
ENGINE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASE PCPN AS WELL AS
INTENSITY VIA LATEST SURROUNDING 88DOS. HOWEVER...WITH SSTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S AND THE GULF STREAM LIKELY BELOW 80...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY FURTHER INCREASE IN STRENGTH FROM ALBERTO. NEED THOSE
SSTS AT OR OVER 80 DEGREES OVER A GOOD CHUNK OF OCEAN OFF THE
CAROLINAS FOR ANY FURTHER STRENGTH INCREASES. THERE HAS NOT REALLY
BEEN ANY TRENDS OR ALLIANCES AMONGST THE EVERYDAY MODELS WE USE FOR
PROGNOSTICATIONS FOR ALBERTO. AND FOR THAT REASON...THE OFFICIAL
ALBERTO FORECAST ILLUSTRATES A MEANDERING ALBERTO RATHER THAN A
BONAFIDE HEADING WITH A DIRECTION AND SPEED. LATEST SAT IMAGERY
INDICATES A PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKY OUTSIDE THE MAIN ONSHORE
BELT OF PCPN. MIN TEMP VARIOUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO LOW FOR
THE ILM CWA GIVEN THE ONSHORE WIND REGIME THAT ADVECTS 60+
DEWPOINTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM INVOLVES
ULTIMATE FATE OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOW LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES
SE OF MYRTLE BEACH...WHICH ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE HURRICANE
CENTER HAS THE LOW DRIFTING WEST OR SOUTH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
AND GIVE IT A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE MATTERS...GUIDANCE
IMPLIES WE COULD SEE MULTIPLE LOWS DEVELOP DURING THIS PERIOD...ALL
ROTATING AROUND A BROAD UPPER CUT-OFF LOW.
UNTIL THE DETERMINATION IS MADE ON THE FATE OF THIS COMPLEX
SYSTEM...HAVE GONE WITH A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE TO COME UP
WITH A FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM. CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION
REMAINS LOW DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BROAD UPPER CUT-OFF CENTER. THIS UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN CENTERED IN
THE VICINITY OF THE CAPE FEAR REGION WELL INTO MONDAY...POSSIBLY
LIFTING NORTH MONDAY NIGHT.
DUE TO BOTH UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED AND LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE
CUT BACK SUBSTANTIALLY ON POPS AND QPF FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
THE CAPE FEAR AND GRAND STRAND REGIONS WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP AS THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED MOST CLOSELY
OVERHEAD. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING TO
HAVE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE...SO WILL MAXIMIZE POPS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON TUES PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO AREA LATE TUES INTO
EARLY WED. BEST CHC OF PCP WILL COME LATE TUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
PCP WATER VALUES SPIKE UP CLOSE TO 1.6 INCHES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
LATE TUES. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE W-NW AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BY WED MORNING BUT WITH WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE...SEA/LAND BREEZE MAY
DOMINATE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WED THROUGH FRI WHILE ABOVE THE SURFACE
A DEEP W-NW FLOW WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N THROUGH THURS BECOMING NE
TO E BY END OF PERIOD. WITH STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE TO THE
EAST...FRONT MAY GET HUNG UP AND WASH OUT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
CONTROL OVER LOCAL AREA THURS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE MODELS DIFFER AS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE UPPER LEVELS.
ECMWF/CMC SHOWING CUTOFF LOW LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS MOVES IT TO THE EAST WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS UP
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARD
DRIER FORECAST WE HAVE IN PLACE WITH A MORE SUBSIDENT N TO NE FLOW
THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS THURS INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS MOISTURE
PROFILES STILL SHOWING MOISTURE LIMITED TO H85 AND BELOW WITH VERY
DRY AIR IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE COLUMN. WITH WEAK
GRADIENT FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...MAY SEE CU AND
SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY BUT NOT COUNTING ON
ANY LARGE SCALE PCP AFTER TUES NIGHT.
EXPECT TEMPS REACHING ABOVE NORMAL AS HEIGHTS RISE AS RIDGE BUILDS
JUST TO OUR WEST MID TO LATE WEEK AND SUNSHINE RETURNS TO THE
FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH VALID PERIOD...WITH EXCEPTION OF
POTENTIAL MVFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO LOWERED CIGS.
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH LINGERING SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 8
KTS WILL PREVAIL...WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KTS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE PERIOD...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...THUS HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH AREA-WIDE. BY LATE AFTERNOON...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AS INDICATED BY CURRENT GUIDANCE...
WILL POTENTIALLY CREATE MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FT AT THE COASTAL
SITES. VCSH/-RA WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER SUNSET...GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
PREVAILING AOB 10 KTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/TEMPO
IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 830 PM SATURDAY...A STRONGER WORDING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS OVERNIGHT VIA LATEST 41013 AND SURROUNDING
BUOY REPORTS. HAVE INDICATED AT LEAST 15 TO 25 KT WITH 4 TO 8 FT
SEAS. PERIODS WILL RUN 7 TO 10 SECONDS AND WHEN COMBINED WITH WAIST
TO SHOULDER HIGH SURF...A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL
MATERIALIZE. ANY FURTHER INCREASE IN SURF COULD PUSH THE MODERATE TO
HIGH RISK.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOW LOCATED ABOUT 120
MILES SE OF MYRTLE BEACH HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. THE
HURRICANE CENTER HAS THE LOW DRIFTING WEST OR SOUTH OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AND GIVE IT A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DURING
THE SHORT TERM REMAINS LOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OVER THIS SYSTEM AND
THE POSSIBILITY THAT MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS COULD ALSO
DEVELOP OVER OR NEAR THE WATERS. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR ANY UPDATES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...THE WINDS SHOULD BACK AROUND THROUGH TUES
AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE W-SW AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NW. LOOKS LIKE THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT MAKE A CLEAN SWEEP AND
MAY BECOME WASHED OUT ACROSS THE AREA WITH WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
SETTING UP BY THURS. WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY BE DRIVEN MORE BY
LAND/SEA BREEZE BY THURS. OVERALL EXPECT WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT UP TO 15 KTS IN TIGHTENED
GRADIENT FLOW LATE TUES THROUGH EARLY WED. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT
EXCEPT ON TUES WHEN THEY INCREASE UP AROUND 4 FT IN OUTER WATERS
LATE TUES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL/RJD
000
FXUS62 KMHX 200442
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1242 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER
WILL PUSH WEST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY THEN DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION. TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO
WILL CONTINUE TO CHURN OFF THE CAPE FEAR REGION SUNDAY THEN TURN
TOWARDS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM SUN...CONFINED POPS TO COASTAL WTRS LATE AS LATEST
MDLS SLOWER TO BRING PRECIP ONSHORE ASSOC WITH LOW ENE OF CAPE
HAT.
PREV DISC...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SHORT TERM MAINLY FOR LOWER
DEWPOINTS CREEPING INTO THE REGION AND SKY COVER BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR. BUOY 44095 13 MILES OFF OREGON INLET HAS MAINTAINED 10-11
FT SEAS AT 11-12 SECONDS FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS WHICH SUGGESTS
BREAKING WAVES OF 10-12 FT. THUS...REISSUED HIGH SURF ADVISORY
THROUGH 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR THE OUTER BANKS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS
AS BUOY OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORE BREAK GREATER THAN
8 FT ACROSS THESE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN FACING BEACHES.
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BR TRICKY AS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA CURRENTLY
LIES ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO TO THE SOUTH
AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA BORDER. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE HAS ALLOWED SKIES TO IMPROVE TO MOSTLY
CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING AND TEMPS HAVE FALLEN AS A RESULT...WITH
UPPER TO MID 50S ALREADY REPORTED INLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO GO
BELOW GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT GIVEN RECENT TRENDS AND COOLER DEWPOINTS
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. EXPECT LOWS NEAR 50 INLAND TO NEAR 60
ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SAT...AMS MSTR INCRS ON SUN AS SFC LOW AFFECTS AREA.
APPEARS AMS WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR ISOLD TSRA IN THE AFTN.
WILL HAVE CHC POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BY THEN WITH HIGHEST CHC
POPS ACRS ERN HALF OF CWA. N-NE FLOW CONTS WITH HIGHEST WS ACROSS
THE OBX CSTL SXNS. TEMPS SHUD WARM INTO THE MID AND UP 70S DURG
THE AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...A RATHER COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM BRINGING SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS MUCH
OF THE PERIOD.
TO START THE LONG TERM...THE BROAD UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH THREE DISTINCT LOW PRES SYSTEMS ALONG
OR OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE FIRST TWO ARE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...ONE APPROX 120 MI SE OF MYRTLE BEACH AND
ONE APPROX 200 MI E OF THE NC/VA BORDER...WHILE A THIRD IS PROGGED
BY MODELS TO DEVELOP N OF THE BAHAMAS AND LIFT N ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THE LOW OFF THE NC/VA BORDER IS PROGGED TO DRIFT W TO OVER OR JUST N
OF THE CWA BY 00Z MON KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
TSTM ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT. THE LOW OFF MYRTLE BEACH IS
PRESENTLY OUTLOOKED THIS AFTERNOON BY NHC OF HAVING A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 48 HRS. MOST 12Z
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DRIFT THIS LOW TO THE
SSW TO APPROX 200-250 MI SE OF CHARLESTON BY 00Z MON. BUT THEN BY
SUN NIGHT AND ESP MON THIS LOW AND THE LOW LIFTING N OUT OF THE
BAHAMAS ACCELERATE N ALONG THE COAST IN ADVANCE OF A ROBUST
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW. MOST OPERATIONAL MODELS
HAVE THE WELL OFFSHORE LOW BECOMING PREDOMINANT WHILE THE NEARER LOW
WEAKENS OR EVEN BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE AS IT LIFTS N ACROSS OR JUST E
OF ERN NC. HOWEVER THE NAM KEEPS THE NEARER LOW STRONGER SO IT WILL
DEFINITELY BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THE LOW PRES SYSTEMS WELL N OF THE REGION
ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE ADVANCING
FROM THE W MAINTAINING SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE FORECAST.
ONCE AGAIN MODELS DEVELOP AN UPPER CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SE OR
OFFSHORE AND ITS PLACEMENT WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW UNSETTLED IT WILL
REMAIN ACROSS ERN NC WED-SAT. GENERALLY FOLLOWING HPC/ECMWF GUIDANCE
WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE AREA AND WILL KEEP SLT CHC TO CHC POPS
EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED BUT IF THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS A BIT
FARTHER OFFSHORE...AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS...POPS WILL LIKELY BE
LOWER WITH UPPER RIDGING ALOFT. FOR THE MOST PART TEMPS LOOK TO BE
NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE L80S INLAND TO 70S ALONG THE
COAST AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM SUN...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL SPREAD WEST ACROSS THE TAF SITES
LATER SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MID LEVEL CLOUDS BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN EVENING BUT SHOULD REMAIN
VFR AT BROKEN 4-5K FT. LOW CONFIDENCE THAT SHOWERS WILL IMPACT
AVIATION SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING APPROACHING WITH THE LOW FROM THE
NORTHEAST SO HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW. COULD HAVE
SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS LOW LVL MOISTURE
INCREASES WITH THE LOW APPROACHING THE COAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM SAT...SEVERAL WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
ROUTES THROUGH THE LONG TERM. INCREASED MOISTURE CONTINUES SUN
NIGHT AS LOW PRES OFF VA/NC BORDER DRIFTS ONSHORE...THIS WILL LEAD
TO DECENT CVRG OF SHRA AND POSS A FEW TSRA WITH PERIOD OF REDUCED
FLIGHT CATEGORIES. LOW PRES OFF THE SC COAST EXPECTED TO DRIFT N
LATE MON AND MON NIGHT BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA CHANCES AND
MAY HAVE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
MON NIGHT AND TUE PUSHING THE LOW PRES SYSTEMS N OF THE AREA
HOWEVER WILL ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TUE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY CUTOFF TO THE W OF REGION WED AND
THU AND THIS WILL AGAIN LEAD TO SCT CONVECTION AND PERIODS OF
REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SUNDAY...WINDS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING PAST FEW HRS
AND ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS CONT TO DIMINISH AS LOW ENE
OF CAPE HAT APPROACHES THE CST. WITH WINDS NOW WELL BELOW 25 KTS
DROPPED SCA FOR SOUNDS. ELEVATED SEAS WILL KEEP SCA GOING FOR
COASTAL WTRS.
PREV DISC...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NORTHEAST
WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH ELEVATED LONG PERIOD SWELLS FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS...AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS SOUTH OF
OCRACOKE. BUOY 44095 13 NMI OFF OREGON INLET HAS OBSERVED 11-12 FT
SEAS AT 10-12 SECONDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THUS HAVE
CONTINUED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS NORTH OF CAPE
LOOKOUT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED AND ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS. WILL LET THE SCA EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED IN A FEW
HOURS FOR THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA BORDER WILL PUSH WEST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT INTO SUN WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DIMINISH AND WINDS WILL BECOME 10-20 KNOTS.
SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO SUBSIDE SO ELEVATED SEAS WILL BE
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM SAT...SEVERAL LOW PRES AREAS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SE
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS INTO TUES...THE
MOST PREDOMINANT ONE WILL BE LOW PRES CURRENTLY APPROX 120 MI SE
OF MYRTLE BEACH THAT IS TAKING ON TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT N TOWARD THE AREA MON/MON NIGHT. THERE IS A
LOT OF UNCERTAINLY OF DEVELOPMENT OF THIS COMPACT LOW BUT MOST
MODELS DON`T STRENGTHEN THE LOW MUCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...AND EVEN WEAKEN IT AS IT DRIFTS N ACROSS THE AREA MON.
STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND MARINERS ARE
URGED CLOSELY MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS
POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON OUR COASTAL WATERS. THE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL
LIFT NE OF THE AREA TUE WITH WIND DIR GRAD BECOMING MORE SW. SW
FLOW EXPECTED TO CONT INTO WED AS ANOTHER STACKED LOW DVLPS TO THE
W. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE AOB 15 KT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW OFF THE
SC COAST.
SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE AFTER SUN AND SUN NIGHT WITH SC ENDING
FROM S TO N ON COASTAL WTRS. SEAS MAY AGAIN BUILD UP TO 5-7 FT MON
NIGHT AND TUE...CURRENTLY FORECAST BY WAVEWATCH...AS LOW PRES
LIFTS TOWARD AND ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS GENERALLY EXPECTED AROUND
2-4 FT WED AND THU.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156-
158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...RF/DAG
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RF/SK/DAG
MARINE...RF/SK/DAG
000
FXUS62 KMHX 200203 AAA
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1003 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER
WILL PUSH WEST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY THEN DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION. TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO
WILL CONTINUE TO CHURN OFF THE CAPE FEAR REGION SUNDAY THEN TURN
TOWARDS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM SAT...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SHORT TERM MAINLY FOR
LOWER DEWPOINTS CREEPING INTO THE REGION AND SKY COVER BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR. BUOY 44095 13 MILES OFF OREGON INLET HAS MAINTAINED
10-11 FT SEAS AT 11-12 SECONDS FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS WHICH
SUGGESTS BREAKING WAVES OF 10-12 FT. THUS...REISSUED HIGH SURF
ADVISORY THROUGH 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR THE OUTER BANKS NORTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS AS BUOY OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORE BREAK
GREATER THAN 8 FT ACROSS THESE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN FACING
BEACHES.
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BR TRICKY AS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA CURRENTLY
LIES ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO TO THE SOUTH
AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA BORDER. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE HAS ALLOWED SKIES TO IMPROVE TO MOSTLY
CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING AND TEMPS HAVE FALLEN AS A RESULT...WITH
UPPER TO MID 50S ALREADY REPORTED INLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO GO
BELOW GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT GIVEN RECENT TRENDS AND COOLER DEWPOINTS
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. EXPECT LOWS NEAR 50 INLAND TO NEAR 60
ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SAT...AMS MSTR INCRS ON SUN AS SFC LOW AFFECTS AREA.
APPEARS AMS WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR ISOLD TSRA IN THE AFTN.
WILL HAVE CHC POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BY THEN WITH HIGHEST CHC
POPS ACRS ERN HALF OF CWA. N-NE FLOW CONTS WITH HIGHEST WS ACROSS
THE OBX CSTL SXNS. TEMPS SHUD WARM INTO THE MID AND UP 70S DURG
THE AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...A RATHER COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM BRINGING SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS MUCH
OF THE PERIOD.
TO START THE LONG TERM...THE BROAD UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH THREE DISTINCT LOW PRES SYSTEMS ALONG
OR OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE FIRST TWO ARE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...ONE APPROX 120 MI SE OF MYRTLE BEACH AND
ONE APPROX 200 MI E OF THE NC/VA BORDER...WHILE A THIRD IS PROGGED
BY MODELS TO DEVELOP N OF THE BAHAMAS AND LIFT N ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THE LOW OFF THE NC/VA BORDER IS PROGGED TO DRIFT W TO OVER OR JUST N
OF THE CWA BY 00Z MON KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
TSTM ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT. THE LOW OFF MYRTLE BEACH IS
PRESENTLY OUTLOOKED THIS AFTERNOON BY NHC OF HAVING A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 48 HRS. MOST 12Z
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DRIFT THIS LOW TO THE
SSW TO APPROX 200-250 MI SE OF CHARLESTON BY 00Z MON. BUT THEN BY
SUN NIGHT AND ESP MON THIS LOW AND THE LOW LIFTING N OUT OF THE
BAHAMAS ACCELERATE N ALONG THE COAST IN ADVANCE OF A ROBUST
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW. MOST OPERATIONAL MODELS
HAVE THE WELL OFFSHORE LOW BECOMING PREDOMINANT WHILE THE NEARER LOW
WEAKENS OR EVEN BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE AS IT LIFTS N ACROSS OR JUST E
OF ERN NC. HOWEVER THE NAM KEEPS THE NEARER LOW STRONGER SO IT WILL
DEFINITELY BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THE LOW PRES SYSTEMS WELL N OF THE REGION
ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE ADVANCING
FROM THE W MAINTAINING SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE FORECAST.
ONCE AGAIN MODELS DEVELOP AN UPPER CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SE OR
OFFSHORE AND ITS PLACEMENT WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW UNSETTLED IT WILL
REMAIN ACROSS ERN NC WED-SAT. GENERALLY FOLLOWING HPC/ECMWF GUIDANCE
WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE AREA AND WILL KEEP SLT CHC TO CHC POPS
EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED BUT IF THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS A BIT
FARTHER OFFSHORE...AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS...POPS WILL LIKELY BE
LOWER WITH UPPER RIDGING ALOFT. FOR THE MOST PART TEMPS LOOK TO BE
NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE L80S INLAND TO 70S ALONG THE
COAST AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 800 PM SAT...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL SPREAD WEST ACROSS THE TAF SITES
LATER SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MID LEVEL CLOUDS BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN EVENING BUT SHOULD REMAIN
VFR AT BROKEN 4-5K FT. LOW CONFIDENCE THAT SHOWERS WILL IMPACT
AVIATION SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING APPROACHING WITH THE LOW FROM THE
NORTHEAST SO HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM SAT...SEVERAL WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
ROUTES THROUGH THE LONG TERM. INCREASED MOISTURE CONTINUES SUN
NIGHT AS LOW PRES OFF VA/NC BORDER DRIFTS ONSHORE...THIS WILL LEAD
TO DECENT CVRG OF SHRA AND POSS A FEW TSRA WITH PERIOD OF REDUCED
FLIGHT CATEGORIES. LOW PRES OFF THE SC COAST EXPECTED TO DRIFT N
LATE MON AND MON NIGHT BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA CHANCES AND
MAY HAVE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
MON NIGHT AND TUE PUSHING THE LOW PRES SYSTEMS N OF THE AREA
HOWEVER WILL ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TUE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY CUTOFF TO THE W OF REGION WED AND
THU AND THIS WILL AGAIN LEAD TO SCT CONVECTION AND PERIODS OF
REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM SAT...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH ELEVATED LONG PERIOD SWELLS
FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS...AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS SOUTH OF
OCRACOKE. BUOY 44095 13 NMI OFF OREGON INLET HAS OBSERVED 11-12 FT
SEAS AT 10-12 SECONDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THUS HAVE
CONTINUED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS NORTH OF CAPE
LOOKOUT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED AND ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS. WILL LET THE SCA EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED IN A FEW
HOURS FOR THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA BORDER WILL PUSH WEST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT INTO SUN WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DIMINISH AND WINDS WILL BECOME 10-20 KNOTS.
SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO SUBSIDE SO ELEVATED SEAS WILL BE
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM SAT...SEVERAL LOW PRES AREAS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SE
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS INTO TUES...THE
MOST PREDOMINANT ONE WILL BE LOW PRES CURRENTLY APPROX 120 MI SE
OF MYRTLE BEACH THAT IS TAKING ON TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT N TOWARD THE AREA MON/MON NIGHT. THERE IS A
LOT OF UNCERTAINLY OF DEVELOPMENT OF THIS COMPACT LOW BUT MOST
MODELS DON`T STRENGTHEN THE LOW MUCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...AND EVEN WEAKEN IT AS IT DRIFTS N ACROSS THE AREA MON.
STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND MARINERS ARE
URGED CLOSELY MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS
POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON OUR COASTAL WATERS. THE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL
LIFT NE OF THE AREA TUE WITH WIND DIR GRAD BECOMING MORE SW. SW
FLOW EXPECTED TO CONT INTO WED AS ANOTHER STACKED LOW DVLPS TO THE
W. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE AOB 15 KT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW OFF THE
SC COAST.
SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE AFTER SUN AND SUN NIGHT WITH SC ENDING
FROM S TO N ON COASTAL WTRS. SEAS MAY AGAIN BUILD UP TO 5-7 FT MON
NIGHT AND TUE...CURRENTLY FORECAST BY WAVEWATCH...AS LOW PRES
LIFTS TOWARD AND ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS GENERALLY EXPECTED AROUND
2-4 FT WED AND THU.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ103.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ130-135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/DAG
MARINE...SK/DAG
000
FXUS62 KRAH 200147 RRA
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
947 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...
THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2012 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
FORMED THIS AFTERNOON OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND AS SUCH
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEGUN ISSUING ADVISORIES. AS OF 7
PM...TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH OF
CAPE FEAR NC...HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH AND WAS MOVING
TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 3 MPH. THE STORM IS EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO CURVE
TO THE NORTHEAST AND TRACK PARALLEL TO THE EAST COAST...BUT REMAIN
OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS...WITH LITTLE TO NO MAJOR IMPACTS FOR
CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE
NORTHEAST (FOR MORE INFORMATION...REFER TO THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION
BELOW).
AS FOR TONIGHT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
AREA...RESULTING IN CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER. ONLY PERIODS OF HIGH
CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED AS CLOUDS ROTATE AROUND TROPICAL STORM
ALBERTO. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD NOT DO TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF HINDERING
COOLING TONIGHT AND WITH RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS (UPPER 40S TO NEAR
50 DEGREES) AND CALM TO LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...ANOTHER NIGHT OF
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS IS EXPECTED...GENERALLY
THE LOW/MID 50S. -KRR
FOR TOMORROW WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST WITH POPS ELEVATED
SLIGHTLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. CLOUD COVER AND ANY POTENTIAL
SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE TRIANGLE EASTWARDS WITH HIGHER
CHANCES OF BOTH FURTHER TO THE EAST. A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY THAN
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH AND OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF AN 80 DEGREE READING IN THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY RELAXED FROM SATURDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS SPEEDS OF 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM SATURDAY...
MODELS ARE HAVING GREAT DIFFICULTY WITH THE CURRENT LOW PRESSURE
AREAS OFF THE VA AND SC COAST. THIS LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE
FORECASTS FOR THIS WEEK. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE DAYS WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY... WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY AND EVEN THURSDAY.
THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION RIGHT NOW APPEARS TO BE THAT ONE MID-UPPER
LOW WILL FINALLY GET PULLED NE AWAY FROM OUR REGION MONDAY... BUT IT
WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL APPROACH
WESTERN NC LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
(PER THE LATEST NAM). WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE HIGHEST POP
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE WEST... AND TUESDAY IN THE CENTRAL
AND EAST. DUE TO THE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS... WE WILL CARRY
HIGH CHANCE POPS AND NOT CARRY LIKELY POP UNTIL LATER FORECASTS ARE
CONSIDERED. QPF OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH FOR THE MON-WED PERIOD SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXTEND THE CURRENT WET PERIOD THAT HAS BEEN GOING FOR
SEVERAL WEEKS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL INCLUDE... VARIABLY CLOUDY MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARMER AND HUMID WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S. HIGHS 80-85. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
LOWS IN THE 60S. HIGHS 78-84. A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED-THU. LOWS IN THE 60S. HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM SATURDAY...
WITH DIFFERENCES ABOUND IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE
DETAILS OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND NC/VA MID WEEK... WE
WILL FOLLOW THE PROPOSED BLEND OF 00Z ECMWF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTIONS.
THIS POINTS TOWARD A BUILDING MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL EC HAS
BEEN INDICATING A LINGERING CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW NEAR THE NC/SC
COAST INTO FRI AND SAT. GIVEN THE RECENT BOUT WITH CLOSED LOWS OVER
OUR REGION LATELY... THIS SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE... BUT IT IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY TELECONNECTIONS AND MOST ENSEMBLE FORECASTS.
WITH THIS IN MIND... WE WILL TREND TO A DRIER AND WARMER FORECAST BY
NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IF THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DOES
DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY... OUR REGION WOULD STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A NE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WOULD KEEP OUR REGION
COOLER THAN THE AREAS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WHERE 90+ DEGREE HEAT
WILL BE FOUND (LOUISVILLE TO COLUMBUS TO PITTSBURGH AND NEW YORK
CITY). OUR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM SATURDAY...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NC COAST WILL DRIFT
WESTWARD INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
DRY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DETERIORATING AVIATION CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC
SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE
COAST PUSHES INLAND.
FOR THE LONG TERM...WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO HOW FAR
WEST(INLAND)THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK...EASTERLY WINDS
WILL ADVECT ATLANTIC MARITIME MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NC...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP
AT KRWI...KFAY...AND KRDU. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER/LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...KRR/ELLIS
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...CBL
000
FXUS62 KILM 200126
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
845 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO OFFSHORE FROM THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
DRIFT/MEANDER TO THE SW OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN BEGIN A
NORTHEASTWARD PUSH BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE CURRENT NHC
TRACK KEEPS THE WORST OF ALBERTO OFFSHORE. IT WILL FINALLY PUSH
NE...AWAY FROM THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE
WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 830 PM SATURDAY...THE BIRTH OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTA WILL NOW
BECOME THE WX STORY FOR THE NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM. MAIN WESTWARD
MOVING MOISTURE PLUME HAS DROPPED JUST SOUTH OF THE ILM CWA. WITH
ALBERTO MEANDERING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WILL LOWER POPS
ACROSS THE FA...ESPECIALLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE NOCTURNAL ATL
ENGINE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASE PCPN AS WELL AS
INTENSITY VIA LATEST SURROUNDING 88DOS. HOWEVER...WITH SSTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S AND THE GULF STREAM LIKELY BELOW 80...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY FURTHER INCREASE IN STRENGTH FROM ALBERTO. NEED THOSE
SSTS AT OR OVER 80 DEGREES OVER A GOOD CHUNK OF OCEAN OFF THE
CAROLINAS FOR ANY FURTHER STRENGTH INCREASES. THERE HAS NOT REALLY
BEEN ANY TRENDS OR ALLIANCES AMONGST THE EVERYDAY MODELS WE USE FOR
PROGNOSTICATIONS FOR ALBERTO. AND FOR THAT REASON...THE OFFICIAL
ALBERTO FORECAST ILLUSTRATES A MEANDERING ALBERTO RATHER THAN A
BONAFIDE HEADING WITH A DIRECTION AND SPEED. LATEST SAT IMAGERY
INDICATES A PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKY OUTSIDE THE MAIN ONSHORE
BELT OF PCPN. MIN TEMP VARIOUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO LOW FOR
THE ILM CWA GIVEN THE ONSHORE WIND REGIME THAT ADVECTS 60+
DEWPOINTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM
INVOLVES ULTIMATE FATE OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOW LOCATED ABOUT
120 MILES SE OF MYRTLE BEACH...WHICH ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
THE HURRICANE CENTER HAS THE LOW DRIFTING WEST OR SOUTH OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AND GIVE IT A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE
MATTERS...GUIDANCE IMPLIES WE COULD SEE MULTIPLE LOWS DEVELOP
DURING THIS PERIOD...ALL ROTATING AROUND A BROAD UPPER CUT-OFF
LOW.
UNTIL THE DETERMINATION IS MADE ON THE FATE OF THIS COMPLEX
SYSTEM...HAVE GONE WITH A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE TO COME UP
WITH A FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM. CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION
REMAINS LOW DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BROAD UPPER CUT-OFF CENTER. THIS UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN CENTERED IN
THE VICINITY OF THE CAPE FEAR REGION WELL INTO MONDAY...POSSIBLY
LIFTING NORTH MONDAY NIGHT.
DUE TO BOTH UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED AND LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE
CUT BACK SUBSTANTIALLY ON POPS AND QPF FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
THE CAPE FEAR AND GRAND STRAND REGIONS WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP AS THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED MOST CLOSELY
OVERHEAD. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING TO
HAVE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE...SO WILL MAXIMIZE POPS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON TUES PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO AREA LATE TUES INTO
EARLY WED. BEST CHC OF PCP WILL COME LATE TUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
PCP WATER VALUES SPIKE UP CLOSE TO 1.6 INCHES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
LATE TUES. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE W-NW AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BY WED MORNING BUT WITH WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE...SEA/LAND BREEZE MAY
DOMINATE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WED THROUGH FRI WHILE ABOVE THE SURFACE
A DEEP W-NW FLOW WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N THROUGH THURS BECOMING NE
TO E BY END OF PERIOD. WITH STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE TO THE
EAST...FRONT MAY GET HUNG UP AND WASH OUT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
CONTROL OVER LOCAL AREA THURS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE MODELS DIFFER AS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE UPPER LEVELS.
ECMWF/CMC SHOWING CUTOFF LOW LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS MOVES IT TO THE EAST WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS UP
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARD
DRIER FORECAST WE HAVE IN PLACE WITH A MORE SUBSIDENT N TO NE FLOW
THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS THURS INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS MOISTURE
PROFILES STILL SHOWING MOISTURE LIMITED TO H85 AND BELOW WITH VERY
DRY AIR IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE COLUMN. WITH WEAK
GRADIENT FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...MAY SEE CU AND
SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY BUT NOT COUNTING ON
ANY LARGE SCALE PCP AFTER TUES NIGHT.
EXPECT TEMPS REACHING ABOVE NORMAL AS HEIGHTS RISE AS RIDGE BUILDS
JUST TO OUR WEST MID TO LATE WEEK AND SUNSHINE RETURNS TO THE
FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH VALID PERIOD...WITH EXCEPTION OF
POTENTIAL MVFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO LOWERED CIGS.
RECENTLY NAMED TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTH
CAROLINA WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
INTERMITTENT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WITH VCSH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 8 KTS WILL CONTINUE WITH
GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KTS BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH
THE PERIOD...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...THUS
HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH AREA- WIDE. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD...INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY CURRENT
GUIDANCE WILL POTENTIALLY CREATE MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000FT AT THE
COASTAL SITES. VCSH/-RA WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER SUNSET...GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE WITH
NORTHEAST FLOW PREVAILING AOB 10 KTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/TEMPO IFR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 830 PM SATURDAY...A STRONGER WORDING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS OVERNIGHT VIA LATEST 41013 AND SURROUNDING
BUOY REPORTS. HAVE INDICATED ATLEAST 15 TO 25 KT WIND SPEEDS WITH 4
TO 8 FT SEAS. BEING THE STORM LIES NEARLY OVERHEAD...PERIODS WILL
NOT HAVE A CHANCE TO REACH A TRUE GROUND SWELL. NEVERTHELESS...
OVERALL PERIODS WILL RUN 7 TO 10 SECONDS AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
WAIST TO SHOULDER HIGH SURF...A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL
MATERIALIZE. ANY FURTHER INCREASE IN SURF COULD PUSH THE MODERATE TO
HIGH RISK. WITH NO WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT...THE STRONG SCA WILL
CONTINUE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:30 PM SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOW LOCATED ABOUT
120 MILES SE OF MYRTLE BEACH HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. THE
HURRICANE CENTER HAS THE LOW DRIFTING WEST OR SOUTH OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AND GIVE IT A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE SHORT TERM REMAINS LOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OVER THIS
SYSTEM AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS
COULD ALSO DEVELOP OVER OR NEAR THE WATERS. MARINE INTERESTS
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR ANY UPDATES.
FOR THE MOMENT...WILL START OFF THE NEAR TERM WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
INITIALLY IN THE 20 KT RANGE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...THE WINDS SHOULD BACK AROUND THROUGH TUES
AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE W-SW AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NW. LOOKS LIKE THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT MAKE A CLEAN SWEEP AND
MAY BECOME WASHED OUT ACROSS THE AREA WITH WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
SETTING UP BY THURS. WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY BE DRIVEN MORE BY
LAND/SEA BREEZE BY THURS. OVERALL EXPECT WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT UP TO 15 KTS IN TIGHTENED
GRADIENT FLOW LATE TUES THROUGH EARLY WED. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT
EXCEPT ON TUES WHEN THEY INCREASE UP AROUND 4 FT IN OUTER WATERS
LATE TUES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL
000
FXUS62 KRAH 200001 RRA
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
803 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...
WATCHING THE SATELLITE IMAGES CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST HAS GAINED SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS OR SO. IT IS BECOMING MORE EVIDENT THAT IT IN
FACT HAS MAINTAINED ITSELF MUCH BETTER THAN THE STILL VERY WEAK LOW
OFF OF THE VIRGINA COAST. THIS SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR THE NAM MODEL
SOLUTION OVER THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
IS MONITORING THE SYSTEM AND HAS BEGUN ISSUANCE OF SPECIAL TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOKS. AS OF 1155 AM THEY HAVE GIVEN IT A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE 48 HOURS...IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR
IT WOULD MOST LIKELY FORM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND BRING MINIMAL
THREATS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTLINE. WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AS THEY
ARE IN THE LOW 70S WITH A FEW DEGREES HIGHER OVER THE GULF STREAM.
POLAR ORBITING SATELLITES SHOW A HEALTHIER NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STORM WITH NOT MUCH WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE AT THIS TIME.
REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM... IT
IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND
THEREFORE IMPACTS ON THE RALEIGH CWA SHOULD BE MINIMAL IF ANY. AN
UPDATE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SHOULD BE AVAILABLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON A PLEASANT BUT BREEZY DAY WITH WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT COOL BUT SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S. DRY DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP FOG AND LOW
STRATUS OUT OF MOST AREAS TONIGHT.
FOR TOMORROW WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST WITH POPS ELEVATED
SLIGHTLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. CLOUD COVER AND ANY POTENTIAL
SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE TRIANGLE EASTWARDS WITH HIGHER
CHANCES OF BOTH FURTHER TO THE EAST. A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY THAN
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH AND OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF AN 80 DEGREE READING IN THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY RELAXED FROM SATURDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS SPEEDS OF 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM SATURDAY...
MODELS ARE HAVING GREAT DIFFICULTY WITH THE CURRENT LOW PRESSURE
AREAS OFF THE VA AND SC COAST. THIS LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE
FORECASTS FOR THIS WEEK. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE DAYS WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY... WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY AND EVEN THURSDAY.
THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION RIGHT NOW APPEARS TO BE THAT ONE MID-UPPER
LOW WILL FINALLY GET PULLED NE AWAY FROM OUR REGION MONDAY... BUT IT
WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL APPROACH
WESTERN NC LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
(PER THE LATEST NAM). WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE HIGHEST POP
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE WEST... AND TUESDAY IN THE CENTRAL
AND EAST. DUE TO THE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS... WE WILL CARRY
HIGH CHANCE POPS AND NOT CARRY LIKELY POP UNTIL LATER FORECASTS ARE
CONSIDERED. QPF OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH FOR THE MON-WED PERIOD SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXTEND THE CURRENT WET PERIOD THAT HAS BEEN GOING FOR
SEVERAL WEEKS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL INCLUDE... VARIABLY CLOUDY MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARMER AND HUMID WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S. HIGHS 80-85. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
LOWS IN THE 60S. HIGHS 78-84. A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED-THU. LOWS IN THE 60S. HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM SATURDAY...
WITH DIFFERENCES ABOUND IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE
DETAILS OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND NC/VA MID WEEK... WE
WILL FOLLOW THE PROPOSED BLEND OF 00Z ECMWF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTIONS.
THIS POINTS TOWARD A BUILDING MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL EC HAS
BEEN INDICATING A LINGERING CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW NEAR THE NC/SC
COAST INTO FRI AND SAT. GIVEN THE RECENT BOUT WITH CLOSED LOWS OVER
OUR REGION LATELY... THIS SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE... BUT IT IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY TELECONNECTIONS AND MOST ENSEMBLE FORECASTS.
WITH THIS IN MIND... WE WILL TREND TO A DRIER AND WARMER FORECAST BY
NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IF THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DOES
DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY... OUR REGION WOULD STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A NE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WOULD KEEP OUR REGION
COOLER THAN THE AREAS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WHERE 90+ DEGREE HEAT
WILL BE FOUND (LOUISVILLE TO COLUMBUS TO PITTSBURGH AND NEW YORK
CITY). OUR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM SATURDAY...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NC COAST WILL DRIFT
WESTWARD INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
DRY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DETERIORATING AVIATION CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC
SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE
COAST PUSHES INLAND.
FOR THE LONG TERM...WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO HOW FAR
WEST(INLAND)THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK...EASTERLY WINDS
WILL ADVECT ATLANTIC MARITIME MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NC...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP
AT KRWI...KFAY...AND KRDU. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER/LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...CBL
000
FXUS62 KILM 200000
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
800 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM TONIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM MAY FINALLY
MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA IS STARTING
TO LOOK MORE INTERESTING ON RADAR AND SATELLITE AND NHC HAS
INCREASED THE DEVELOPMENT PROBABILITY TO 50%. HOWEVER THE LOW IS
DRIFTING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH ONLY MINIMAL IMPACT EXPECTED
FOR THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOW HAS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
OUTFLOW ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF IT...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A
SIGNIFICANT CIRRUS SHIELD OVER THE REGION. THICK HIGH CLOUD AND
STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. BOTH WILL HELP KEEP LOWS ACROSS THE AREA ABOVE
CLIMO...MORE SO AT THE COAST VS INLAND WHERE WINDS WILL BE A BIT
LIGHTER AND CLOUDS A LITTLE THINNER. RADAR TRENDS DO SUGGEST SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS BRUSHING THE SC COAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOOKS
LIKE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY INTO TONIGHT. NOW
APPEARS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN OFF THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. STILL...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OFF THE SC COAST DID NOT WANT
TO PULL PRECIP FROM THE FORECAST. GOING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POP ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTION FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM
INVOLVES ULTIMATE FATE OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOW LOCATED ABOUT
120 MILES SE OF MYRTLE BEACH...WHICH ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
THE HURRICANE CENTER HAS THE LOW DRIFTING WEST OR SOUTH OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AND GIVE IT A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE
MATTERS...GUIDANCE IMPLIES WE COULD SEE MULTIPLE LOWS DEVELOP
DURING THIS PERIOD...ALL ROTATING AROUND A BROAD UPPER CUT-OFF
LOW.
UNTIL THE DETERMINATION IS MADE ON THE FATE OF THIS COMPLEX
SYSTEM...HAVE GONE WITH A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE TO COME UP
WITH A FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM. CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION
REMAINS LOW DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BROAD UPPER CUT-OFF CENTER. THIS UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN CENTERED IN
THE VICINITY OF THE CAPE FEAR REGION WELL INTO MONDAY...POSSIBLY
LIFTING NORTH MONDAY NIGHT.
DUE TO BOTH UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED AND LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE
CUT BACK SUBSTANTIALLY ON POPS AND QPF FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
THE CAPE FEAR AND GRAND STRAND REGIONS WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP AS THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED MOST CLOSELY
OVERHEAD. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING TO
HAVE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE...SO WILL MAXIMIZE POPS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON TUES PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO AREA LATE TUES INTO
EARLY WED. BEST CHC OF PCP WILL COME LATE TUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
PCP WATER VALUES SPIKE UP CLOSE TO 1.6 INCHES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
LATE TUES. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE W-NW AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BY WED MORNING BUT WITH WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE...SEA/LAND BREEZE MAY
DOMINATE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WED THROUGH FRI WHILE ABOVE THE SURFACE
A DEEP W-NW FLOW WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N THROUGH THURS BECOMING NE
TO E BY END OF PERIOD. WITH STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE TO THE
EAST...FRONT MAY GET HUNG UP AND WASH OUT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
CONTROL OVER LOCAL AREA THURS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE MODELS DIFFER AS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE UPPER LEVELS.
ECMWF/CMC SHOWING CUTOFF LOW LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS MOVES IT TO THE EAST WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS UP
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARD
DRIER FORECAST WE HAVE IN PLACE WITH A MORE SUBSIDENT N TO NE FLOW
THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS THURS INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS MOISTURE
PROFILES STILL SHOWING MOISTURE LIMITED TO H85 AND BELOW WITH VERY
DRY AIR IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE COLUMN. WITH WEAK
GRADIENT FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...MAY SEE CU AND
SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY BUT NOT COUNTING ON
ANY LARGE SCALE PCP AFTER TUES NIGHT.
EXPECT TEMPS REACHING ABOVE NORMAL AS HEIGHTS RISE AS RIDGE BUILDS
JUST TO OUR WEST MID TO LATE WEEK AND SUNSHINE RETURNS TO THE
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH VALID PERIOD...WITH EXCEPTION OF
POTENTIAL MVFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO LOWERED CIGS.
RECENTLY NAMED TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTH
CAROLINA WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
INTERMITTENT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WITH VCSH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 8 KTS WILL CONTINUE WITH
GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KTS BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH
THE PERIOD...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...THUS
HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH AREA- WIDE. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD...INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY CURRENT
GUIDANCE WILL POTENTIALLY CREATE MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000FT AT THE
COASTAL SITES. VCSH/-RA WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER SUNSET...GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE WITH
NORTHEAST FLOW PREVAILING AOB 10 KTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/TEMPO IFR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS WITH
LATEST FROM 41013 AROUND 27 KT AND 10 FT SEAS. CLOSER TO SHORE
REPORTS ARE 15 TO 20 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FT. SURFACE LOW SOUTH
OF THE WATERS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT WEST-SOUTHWEST AS IT
BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED. GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN UNCHANGED
OVERNIGHT...WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW STAYING IN THE 20 TO 25 KT
RANGE AWAY FROM SHORE AND CLOSER TO 15 TO 20 KT ALONG THE COAST.
SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 FT OR LESS ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COAST AND
SHELTER PORTIONS OF FRYING PAN SHOALS TO 7 FT ACROSS WATERS OPEN
TO NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW. WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MADE UP LARGELY
OF A NORTHEAST SWELL...6 TO 7 SECONDS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:30 PM SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOW LOCATED ABOUT
120 MILES SE OF MYRTLE BEACH HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. THE
HURRICANE CENTER HAS THE LOW DRIFTING WEST OR SOUTH OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AND GIVE IT A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE SHORT TERM REMAINS LOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OVER THIS
SYSTEM AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS
COULD ALSO DEVELOP OVER OR NEAR THE WATERS. MARINE INTERESTS
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR ANY UPDATES.
FOR THE MOMENT...WILL START OFF THE NEAR TERM WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
INITIALLY IN THE 20 KT RANGE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...THE WINDS SHOULD BACK AROUND THROUGH TUES
AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE W-SW AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NW. LOOKS LIKE THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT MAKE A CLEAN SWEEP AND
MAY BECOME WASHED OUT ACROSS THE AREA WITH WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
SETTING UP BY THURS. WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY BE DRIVEN MORE BY
LAND/SEA BREEZE BY THURS. OVERALL EXPECT WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT UP TO 15 KTS IN TIGHTENED
GRADIENT FLOW LATE TUES THROUGH EARLY WED. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT
EXCEPT ON TUES WHEN THEY INCREASE UP AROUND 4 FT IN OUTER WATERS
LATE TUES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/III/MBB
000
FXUS62 KMHX 192045
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
445 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AS A
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SAT...FOLLOWED A GFS MODEL FOR THE NEAR AND SHORT
TERM. DON`T EXPECT ANY PRECIP UNTIL LATE TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR ERN
SXNS LATE TONIGHT AFT 06Z WHEN SFC LOW OFF VA CAPE APCHS FM THE
ENE. BLENDED OFFICIAL TEMPS WITH MAV GUID FOR TONIGHT WITH MINS
EXPECT FM THE LWR 50S WEL INLAND TO NR 60 ON THE COAST. A MODERATE
N TO NE SFC WIND WILL PERSIST SPLY FOR COASTAL SXNS. EXPECT SKIES
TO BECOME MOCLDY
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SAT...AMS MSTR INCRS ON SUN AS SFC LOW AFFECTS AREA.
APPEARS AMS WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR ISOLD TSRA IN THE AFTN.
WILL HAVE CHC POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BY THEN WITH HIGHEST CHC
POPS ACRS ERN HALF OF CWA. N-NE FLOW CONTS WITH HIGHEST WS ACROSS
THE OBX CSTL SXNS. TEMPS SHUD WARM INTO THE MID AND UP 70S DURG
THE AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...A RATHER COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM BRINGING SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS MUCH
OF THE PERIOD.
TO START THE LONG TERM...THE BROAD UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH THREE DISTINCT LOW PRES SYSTEMS ALONG
OR OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE FIRST TWO ARE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...ONE APPROX 120 MI SE OF MYRTLE BEACH AND
ONE APPROX 200 MI E OF THE NC/VA BORDER...WHILE A THIRD IS PROGGED
BY MODELS TO DEVELOP N OF THE BAHAMAS AND LIFT N ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THE LOW OFF THE NC/VA BORDER IS PROGGED TO DRIFT W TO OVER OR JUST N
OF THE CWA BY 00Z MON KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
TSTM ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT. THE LOW OFF MYRTLE BEACH IS
PRESENTLY OUTLOOKED THIS AFTERNOON BY NHC OF HAVING A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 48 HRS. MOST 12Z
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DRIFT THIS LOW TO THE
SSW TO APPROX 200-250 MI SE OF CHARLESTON BY 00Z MON. BUT THEN BY
SUN NIGHT AND ESP MON THIS LOW AND THE LOW LIFTING N OUT OF THE
BAHAMAS ACCELERATE N ALONG THE COAST IN ADVANCE OF A ROBUST
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW. MOST OPERATIONAL MODELS
HAVE THE WELL OFFSHORE LOW BECOMING PREDOMINANT WHILE THE NEARER LOW
WEAKENS OR EVEN BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE AS IT LIFTS N ACROSS OR JUST E
OF ERN NC. HOWEVER THE NAM KEEPS THE NEARER LOW STRONGER SO IT WILL
DEFINITELY BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THE LOW PRES SYSTEMS WELL N OF THE REGION
ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE ADVANCING
FROM THE W MAINTAINING SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE FORECAST.
ONCE AGAIN MODELS DEVELOP AN UPPER CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SE OR
OFFSHORE AND ITS PLACEMENT WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW UNSETTLED IT WILL
REMAIN ACROSS ERN NC WED-SAT. GENERALLY FOLLOWING HPC/ECMWF GUIDANCE
WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE AREA AND WILL KEEP SLT CHC TO CHC POPS
EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED BUT IF THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS A BIT
FARTHER OFFSHORE...AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS...POPS WILL LIKELY BE
LOWER WITH UPPER RIDGING ALOFT. FOR THE MOST PART TEMPS LOOK TO BE
NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE L80S INLAND TO 70S ALONG THE
COAST AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SAT...CLOUD COVER INCREASES LATE TONIGHT FROM THE
EAST WITH APCH OF THE SFC LOW. PRECIP SHUD BEGIN LATE TONIGHT ACRS
THE OBX SPREADING WWD ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA ON SUN. EXPECT VFR
CONDS THRU THE PD EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF SCT CONVECTION MAINLY
ON SUNDAY WHERE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS CUD OCCUR.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM SAT...SEVERAL WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
ROUTES THROUGH THE LONG TERM. INCREASED MOISTURE CONTINUES SUN
NIGHT AS LOW PRES OFF VA/NC BORDER DRIFTS ONSHORE...THIS WILL LEAD
TO DECENT CVRG OF SHRA AND POSS A FEW TSRA WITH PERIOD OF REDUCED
FLIGHT CATEGORIES. LOW PRES OFF THE SC COAST EXPECTED TO DRIFT N
LATE MON AND MON NIGHT BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA CHANCES AND
MAY HAVE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
MON NIGHT AND TUE PUSHING THE LOW PRES SYSTEMS N OF THE AREA
HOWEVER WILL ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TUE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY CUTOFF TO THE W OF REGION WED AND
THU AND THIS WILL AGAIN LEAD TO SCT CONVECTION AND PERIODS OF
REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SAT...SCA CONTS FOR
ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH N-NE WINDS 20-25 KT ACRS THE
AND SEAS IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE FOR THE NRN AND CNTRL WATERS AND 4-7
FT SRN WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR THE SOUNDS EXPECT FREQUENT WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KT THROUGH THIS EVE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM SAT...SEVERAL LOW PRES AREAS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SE
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS INTO TUES...THE
MOST PREDOMINANT ONE WILL BE LOW PRES CURRENTLY APPROX 120 MI SE
OF MYRTLE BEACH THAT IS TAKING ON TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT N TOWARD THE AREA MON/MON NIGHT. THERE IS A
LOT OF UNCERTAINLY OF DEVELOPMENT OF THIS COMPACT LOW BUT MOST
MODELS DON`T STRENGTHEN THE LOW MUCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...AND EVEN WEAKEN IT AS IT DRIFTS N ACROSS THE AREA MON.
STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND MARINERS ARE
URGED CLOSELY MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS
POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON OUR COASTAL WATERS. THE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL
LIFT NE OF THE AREA TUE WITH WIND DIR GRAD BECOMING MORE SW. SW
FLOW EXPECTED TO CONT INTO WED AS ANOTHER STACKED LOW DVLPS TO THE
W. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE AOB 15 KT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW OFF THE
SC COAST.
SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE AFTER SUN AND SUN NIGHT WITH SC ENDING
FROM S TO N ON COASTAL WTRS. SEAS MAY AGAIN BUILD UP TO 5-7 FT MON
NIGHT AND TUE...CURRENTLY FORECAST BY WAVEWATCH...AS LOW PRES
LIFTS TOWARD AND ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS GENERALLY EXPECTED AROUND
2-4 FT WED AND THU.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ095-
103-104.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ103-104.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ130-135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JAC/SK
MARINE...JAC/SK
000
FXUS62 KILM 191929
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
329 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM TONIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM MAY FINALLY
MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA IS STARTING
TO LOOK MORE INTERESTING ON RADAR AND SATELLITE AND NHC HAS
INCREASED THE DEVELOPMENT PROBABILITY TO 50%. HOWEVER THE LOW IS
DRIFTING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH ONLY MINIMAL IMPACT EXPECTED
FOR THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOW HAS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
OUTFLOW ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF IT...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A
SIGNIFICANT CIRRUS SHIELD OVER THE REGION. THICK HIGH CLOUD AND
STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. BOTH WILL HELP KEEP LOWS ACROSS THE AREA ABOVE
CLIMO...MORE SO AT THE COAST VS INLAND WHERE WINDS WILL BE A BIT
LIGHTER AND CLOUDS A LITTLE THINNER. RADAR TRENDS DO SUGGEST SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS BRUSHING THE SC COAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOOKS
LIKE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY INTO TONIGHT. NOW
APPEARS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN OFF THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. STILL...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OFF THE SC COAST DID NOT WANT
TO PULL PRECIP FROM THE FORECAST. GOING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POP ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTION FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM
INVOLVES ULTIMATE FATE OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOW LOCATED ABOUT
120 MILES SE OF MYRTLE BEACH...WHICH ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
THE HURRICANE CENTER HAS THE LOW DRIFTING WEST OR SOUTH OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AND GIVE IT A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE
MATTERS...GUIDANCE IMPLIES WE COULD SEE MULTIPLE LOWS DEVELOP
DURING THIS PERIOD...ALL ROTATING AROUND A BROAD UPPER CUT-OFF
LOW.
UNTIL THE DETERMINATION IS MADE ON THE FATE OF THIS COMPLEX
SYSTEM...HAVE GONE WITH A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE TO COME UP
WITH A FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM. CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION
REMAINS LOW DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BROAD UPPER CUT-OFF CENTER. THIS UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN CENTERED IN
THE VICINITY OF THE CAPE FEAR REGION WELL INTO MONDAY...POSSIBLY
LIFTING NORTH MONDAY NIGHT.
DUE TO BOTH UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED AND LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE
CUT BACK SUBSTANTIALLY ON POPS AND QPF FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
THE CAPE FEAR AND GRAND STRAND REGIONS WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP AS THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED MOST CLOSELY
OVERHEAD. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING TO
HAVE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE...SO WILL MAXIMIZE POPS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON TUES PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO AREA LATE TUES INTO
EARLY WED. BEST CHC OF PCP WILL COME LATE TUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
PCP WATER VALUES SPIKE UP CLOSE TO 1.6 INCHES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
LATE TUES. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE W-NW AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BY WED MORNING BUT WITH WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE...SEA/LAND BREEZE MAY
DOMINATE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WED THROUGH FRI WHILE ABOVE THE SURFACE
A DEEP W-NW FLOW WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N THROUGH THURS BECOMING NE
TO E BY END OF PERIOD. WITH STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE TO THE
EAST...FRONT MAY GET HUNG UP AND WASH OUT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
CONTROL OVER LOCAL AREA THURS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE MODELS DIFFER AS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE UPPER LEVELS.
ECMWF/CMC SHOWING CUTOFF LOW LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS MOVES IT TO THE EAST WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS UP
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARD
DRIER FORECAST WE HAVE IN PLACE WITH A MORE SUBSIDENT N TO NE FLOW
THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS THURS INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS MOISTURE
PROFILES STILL SHOWING MOISTURE LIMITED TO H85 AND BELOW WITH VERY
DRY AIR IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE COLUMN. WITH WEAK
GRADIENT FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...MAY SEE CU AND
SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY BUT NOT COUNTING ON
ANY LARGE SCALE PCP AFTER TUES NIGHT.
EXPECT TEMPS REACHING ABOVE NORMAL AS HEIGHTS RISE AS RIDGE BUILDS
JUST TO OUR WEST MID TO LATE WEEK AND SUNSHINE RETURNS TO THE
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE SITUATED OFF THE COAST
TODAY...THE CLOSEST AND MOST POTENT SOUTHEAST OF MYR. THE TERMINALS
ARE CURRENTLY MORE UNDER THE EFFECT HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED TO THE
NORTHWEST.
MODELS ARE DEPICTING VARIOUS SOLUTIONS AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE...BUT ALL PROGS KEEP ANY RAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH
THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. THUS NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS/VFR
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR
CEILINGS/VCSH AT ILM LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/TEMPO
IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS WITH
LATEST FROM 41013 AROUND 27 KT AND 10 FT SEAS. CLOSER TO SHORE
REPORTS ARE 15 TO 20 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FT. SURFACE LOW SOUTH
OF THE WATERS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT WEST-SOUTHWEST AS IT
BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED. GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN UNCHANGED
OVERNIGHT...WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW STAYING IN THE 20 TO 25 KT
RANGE AWAY FROM SHORE AND CLOSER TO 15 TO 20 KT ALONG THE COAST.
SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 FT OR LESS ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COAST AND
SHELTER PORTIONS OF FRYING PAN SHOALS TO 7 FT ACROSS WATERS OPEN
TO NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW. WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MADE UP LARGELY
OF A NORTHEAST SWELL...6 TO 7 SECONDS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:30 PM SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOW LOCATED ABOUT
120 MILES SE OF MYRTLE BEACH HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. THE
HURRICANE CENTER HAS THE LOW DRIFTING WEST OR SOUTH OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AND GIVE IT A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE SHORT TERM REMAINS LOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OVER THIS
SYSTEM AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS
COULD ALSO DEVELOP OVER OR NEAR THE WATERS. MARINE INTERESTS
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR ANY UPDATES.
FOR THE MOMENT...WILL START OFF THE NEAR TERM WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
INITIALLY IN THE 20 KT RANGE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...THE WINDS SHOULD BACK AROUND THROUGH TUES
AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE W-SW AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NW. LOOKS LIKE THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT MAKE A CLEAN SWEEP AND
MAY BECOME WASHED OUT ACROSS THE AREA WITH WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
SETTING UP BY THURS. WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY BE DRIVEN MORE BY
LAND/SEA BREEZE BY THURS. OVERALL EXPECT WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT UP TO 15 KTS IN TIGHTENED
GRADIENT FLOW LATE TUES THROUGH EARLY WED. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT
EXCEPT ON TUES WHEN THEY INCREASE UP AROUND 4 FT IN OUTER WATERS
LATE TUES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/III/RGZ
000
FXUS62 KMHX 191926
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
326 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AS A
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SAT...FOLLOWED A GFS MODEL FOR THE NEAR AND SHORT
TERM. DON`T EXPECT ANY PRECIP UNTIL LATE TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR ERN
SXNS LATE TONIGHT AFT 06Z WHEN SFC LOW OFF VA CAPE APCHS FM THE
ENE. BLENED OFFICIAL TEMPS WITH MAV GUID FOR TONIGHT WITH MINS
EXPECT FM THE LWR 50S WEL INLAND TO NR 60 ON THE COAST. A MODERATE
N TO NE SFC WIND WILL PERSIST SPLY FOR COASTAL SXNS. EXPECT SKIES
TO BECOME MOCLDY
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SAT...AMS MSTR INCRS ON SUN AS SFC LOW AFFECTS AREA.
APPEARS AMS WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR ISOLD TSRA IN THE AFTN.
WILL HAVE CHC POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BY THEN WITH HIGHEST CHC
POPS ACRS ERN HALF OF CWA. N-NE FLOW CONTS WITH HIGHEST WS ACROSS
THE OBX CSTL SXNS. TEMPS SHUD WARM INTO THE MID AND UP 70S DURG
THE AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...A RATHER COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM BRINGING SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS MUCH
OF THE PERIOD.
TO START THE LONG TERM...THE BROAD UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH THREE DISTINCT LOW PRES SYSTEMS ALONG
OR OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE FIRST TWO ARE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...ONE APPROX 120 MI SE OF MYRTLE BEACH AND
ONE APPROX 200 MI E OF THE NC/VA BORDER...WHILE A THIRD IS PROGGED
BY MODELS TO DEVELOP N OF THE BAHAMAS AND LIFT N ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THE LOW OFF THE NC/VA BORDER IS PROGGED TO DRIFT W TO OVER OR JUST N
OF THE CWA BY 00Z MON KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
TSTM ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT. THE LOW OFF MYRTLE BEACH IS
PRESENTLY OUTLOOKED THIS AFTERNOON BY NHC OF HAVING A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 48 HRS. MOST 12Z
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DRIFT THIS LOW TO THE
SSW TO APPROX 200-250 MI SE OF CHARLESTON BY 00Z MON. BUT THEN BY
SUN NIGHT AND ESP MON THIS LOW AND THE LOW LIFTING N OUT OF THE
BAHAMAS ACCELERATE N ALONG THE COAST IN ADVANCE OF A ROBUST
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW. MOST OPERATIONAL MODELS
HAVE THE WELL OFFSHORE LOW BECOMING PREDOMINANT WHILE THE NEARER LOW
WEAKENS OR EVEN BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE AS IT LIFTS N ACROSS OR JUST E
OF ERN NC. HOWEVER THE NAM KEEPS THE NEARER LOW STRONGER SO IT WILL
DEFINITELY BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THE LOW PRES SYSTEMS WELL N OF THE REGION
ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE ADVANCING
FROM THE W MAINTAINING SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE FORECAST.
ONCE AGAIN MODELS DEVELOP AN UPPER CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SE OR
OFFSHORE AND ITS PLACEMENT WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW UNSETTLED IT WILL
REMAIN ACROSS ERN NC WED-SAT. GENERALLY FOLLOWING HPC/ECMWF GUIDANCE
WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE AREA AND WILL KEEP SLT CHC TO CHC POPS
EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED BUT IF THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS A BIT
FARTHER OFFSHORE...AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS...POPS WILL LIKELY BE
LOWER WITH UPPER RIDGING ALOFT. FOR THE MOST PART TEMPS LOOK TO BE
NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE L80S INLAND TO 70S ALONG THE
COAST AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SAT...CLOUD COVER INCREASES LATE TONIGHT FROM THE
EAST WITH APCH OF THE SFC LOW. PRECIP SHUD BEGIN LATE TONIGHT ACRS
THE OBX SPREADING WWD ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA ON SUN. EXPECT VFR
CONDS THRU THE PD EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF SCT CONVECTION MAINLY
ON SUNDAY WHERE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS CUD OCCUR.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE SUN AND MON AS STACKED
LOW DRIFTS ONSHORE...THIS WILL LEAD TO DECENT CVRG OF SHRA AND
POSS A FEW TSRA WITH PERIOD OF REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES. SYSTEM
SLOWLY LIFT NE OF REGION TUE HOWEVER WILL LIKELY HAVE ENOUGH LOW
LVL MOISTURE FOR POSS STRATUS EARLY IN MORN THEN SOME MVFR CIGS
LATER IN THE MORN. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL CUTOFF TO THE W OF REGION
WED AND THIS WILL AGAIN LEAD TO SCT CONVECTION AND PERIODS OF
REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SAT...SCA CONTS FOR
ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH N-NE WINDS 20-25 KT ACRS THE
AND SEAS IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE FOR THE NRN AND CNTRL WATERS AND 4-7
FT SRN WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR THE SOUNDS EXPECT FREQUENT WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KT THROUGH THIS EVE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...SFC LOW EXPECTED TO REACH CST
SUNDAY...EXACT LOCATION STILL UNCERTAIN BUT LEANING TWRD GFS WITH
LOW NEAR CENTRAL CST SUNDAY. PLACEMENT OF LOW WILL OBVIOUSLY
GREATLY IMPACT WIND DIR HOWEVER WITH OW ALONG THE CST SPEEDS FOR
THE MOST PART SO REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS. LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE
INTO TUE WITH WIND DIR GRAD BECOMING MORE SW AT LESS THAN 15 KTS.
SW FLOW EXPECTED TO CONT INTO WED AS ANOTHER STACKED LOW DVLPS TO
THE W. SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE ALTER SUN AND SUN NIGHT WITH SC
ENDING FROM S TO N ON COASTAL WTRS. DESPITE RATHER LIGHT WINDS
WAVEWATCH CONTS TO SHOW 4 TO 5 FT SEAS OUTER WTRS THRU MID WEEK
WITH LINGERING SE SWELL.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ095-
103-104.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ130-135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JAC/RF
MARINE...JAC/RF
000
FXUS62 KILM 191902
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
302 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM TONIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM MAY FINALLY
MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA IS STARTING
TO LOOK MORE INTERESTING ON RADAR AND SATELLITE AND NHC HAS
INCREASED THE DEVELOPMENT PROBABILITY TO 50%. HOWEVER THE LOW IS
DRIFTING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH ONLY MINIMAL IMPACT EXPECTED
FOR THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOW HAS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
OUTFLOW ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF IT...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A
SIGNIFICANT CIRRUS SHIELD OVER THE REGION. THICK HIGH CLOUD AND
STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. BOTH WILL HELP KEEP LOWS ACROSS THE AREA ABOVE
CLIMO...MORE SO AT THE COAST VS INLAND WHERE WINDS WILL BE A BIT
LIGHTER AND CLOUDS A LITTLE THINNER. RADAR TRENDS DO SUGGEST SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS BRUSHING THE SC COAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOOKS
LIKE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY INTO TONIGHT. NOW
APPEARS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN OFF THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. STILL...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OFF THE SC COAST DID NOT WANT
TO PULL PRECIP FROM THE FORECAST. GOING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POP ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTION FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM
INVOLVES ULTIMATE FATE OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOW LOCATED ABOUT
120 MILES SE OF MYRTLE BEACH...WHICH ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
THE HURRICANE CENTER HAS THE LOW DRIFTING WEST OR SOUTH OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AND GIVE IT A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE
MATTERS...GUIDANCE IMPLIES WE COULD SEE MULTIPLE LOWS DEVELOP
DURING THIS PERIOD...ALL ROTATING AROUND A BROAD UPPER CUT-OFF
LOW.
UNTIL THE DETERMINATION IS MADE ON THE FATE OF THIS COMPLEX
SYSTEM...HAVE GONE WITH A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE TO COME UP
WITH A FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM. CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION
REMAINS LOW DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BROAD UPPER CUT-OFF CENTER. THIS UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN CENTERED IN
THE VICINITY OF THE CAPE FEAR REGION WELL INTO MONDAY...POSSIBLY
LIFTING NORTH MONDAY NIGHT.
DUE TO BOTH UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED AND LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE
CUT BACK SUBSTANTIALLY ON POPS AND QPF FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
THE CAPE FEAR AND GRAND STRAND REGIONS WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP AS THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED MOST CLOSELY
OVERHEAD. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING TO
HAVE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE...SO WILL MAXIMIZE POPS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...GREAT LAKES TROUGH THAT ULTIMATELY LEADS TO
THE EXIT OF THE SHORT TERM STORM SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO A WEAK
CUTOFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
TERM. LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WILL BRING A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
MS/TN VALLEY SHUNTING THE SYSTEM...OR WHATS LEFT OF IT...SOUTHWARD.
IN THE END WEATHER LOCALLY MAY BE A BIT UNSETTLED THOUGH NO
PARTICULAR DAY SHOULD BE A WASH PER SE. ECMWF A LITTLE STRONGER BUT
ALSO FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM IMPLYING THAT DRY AIR COULD WRAP
INTO THE CAROLINAS AROUND ITS SOUTH SIDE BY LATE WED OR THEREABOUTS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE SITUATED OFF THE COAST
TODAY...THE CLOSEST AND MOST POTENT SOUTHEAST OF MYR. THE TERMINALS
ARE CURRENTLY MORE UNDER THE EFFECT HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED TO THE
NORTHWEST.
MODELS ARE DEPICTING VARIOUS SOLUTIONS AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE...BUT ALL PROGS KEEP ANY RAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH
THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. THUS NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS/VFR
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR
CEILINGS/VCSH AT ILM LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/TEMPO
IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS WITH
LATEST FROM 41013 AROUND 27 KT AND 10 FT SEAS. CLOSER TO SHORE
REPORTS ARE 15 TO 20 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FT. SURFACE LOW SOUTH
OF THE WATERS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT WEST-SOUTHWEST AS IT
BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED. GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN UNCHANGED
OVERNIGHT...WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW STAYING IN THE 20 TO 25 KT
RANGE AWAY FROM SHORE AND CLOSER TO 15 TO 20 KT ALONG THE COAST.
SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 FT OR LESS ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COAST AND
SHELTER PORTIONS OF FRYING PAN SHOALS TO 7 FT ACROSS WATERS OPEN
TO NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW. WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MADE UP LARGELY
OF A NORTHEAST SWELL...6 TO 7 SECONDS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:30 PM SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOW LOCATED ABOUT
120 MILES SE OF MYRTLE BEACH HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. THE
HURRICANE CENTER HAS THE LOW DRIFTING WEST OR SOUTH OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AND GIVE IT A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE SHORT TERM REMAINS LOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OVER THIS
SYSTEM AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS
COULD ALSO DEVELOP OVER OR NEAR THE WATERS. MARINE INTERESTS
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR ANY UPDATES.
FOR THE MOMENT...WILL START OFF THE NEAR TERM WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
INITIALLY IN THE 20 KT RANGE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...JUST SOME WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGHINESS EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH PESKY UPPER LOW MAY BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER OTHERWISE. A GENERAL SW FLOW NO HIGHER THAN 10 TO 15 KTS
APPEARS LIKELY WITH NO FLAGS/HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/III/MBB
000
FXUS62 KRAH 191832 RRA
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
232 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...
WATCHING THE SATELLITE IMAGES CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST HAS GAINED SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS OR SO. IT IS BECOMING MORE EVIDENT THAT IT IN
FACT HAS MAINTAINED ITSELF MUCH BETTER THAN THE STILL VERY WEAK LOW
OFF OF THE VIRGINA COAST. THIS SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR THE NAM MODEL
SOLUTION OVER THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
IS MONITORING THE SYSTEM AND HAS BEGUN ISSUANCE OF SPECIAL TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOKS. AS OF 1155 AM THEY HAVE GIVEN IT A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE 48 HOURS...IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR
IT WOULD MOST LIKELY FORM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND BRING MINIMAL
THREATS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTLINE. WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AS THEY
ARE IN THE LOW 70S WITH A FEW DEGREES HIGHER OVER THE GULF STREAM.
POLAR ORBITING SATELLITES SHOW A HEALTHIER NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STORM WITH NOT MUCH WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE AT THIS TIME.
REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM... IT
IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND
THEREFORE IMPACTS ON THE RALEIGH CWA SHOULD BE MINIMAL IF ANY. AN
UPDATE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SHOULD BE AVAILABLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON A PLEASANT BUT BREEZY DAY WITH WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT COOL BUT SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S. DRY DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP FOG AND LOW
STRATUS OUT OF MOST AREAS TONIGHT.
FOR TOMORROW WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST WITH POPS ELEVATED
SLIGHTLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. CLOUD COVER AND ANY POTENTIAL
SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE TRIANGLE EASTWARDS WITH HIGHER
CHANCES OF BOTH FURTHER TO THE EAST. A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY THAN
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH AND OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF AN 80 DEGREE READING IN THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY RELAXED FROM SATURDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS SPEEDS OF 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM SATURDAY...
MODELS ARE HAVING GREAT DIFFICULTY WITH THE CURRENT LOW PRESSURE
AREAS OFF THE VA AND SC COAST. THIS LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE
FORECASTS FOR THIS WEEK. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE DAYS WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY... WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY AND EVEN THURSDAY.
THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION RIGHT NOW APPEARS TO BE THAT ONE MID-UPPER
LOW WILL FINALLY GET PULLED NE AWAY FROM OUR REGION MONDAY... BUT IT
WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL APPROACH
WESTERN NC LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
(PER THE LATEST NAM). WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE HIGHEST POP
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE WEST... AND TUESDAY IN THE CENTRAL
AND EAST. DUE TO THE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS... WE WILL CARRY
HIGH CHANCE POPS AND NOT CARRY LIKELY POP UNTIL LATER FORECASTS ARE
CONSIDERED. QPF OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH FOR THE MON-WED PERIOD SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXTEND THE CURRENT WET PERIOD THAT HAS BEEN GOING FOR
SEVERAL WEEKS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL INCLUDE... VARIABLY CLOUDY MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARMER AND HUMID WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S. HIGHS 80-85. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
LOWS IN THE 60S. HIGHS 78-84. A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED-THU. LOWS IN THE 60S. HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM SATURDAY...
WITH DIFFERENCES ABOUND IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE
DETAILS OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND NC/VA MID WEEK... WE
WILL FOLLOW THE PROPOSED BLEND OF 00Z ECMWF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTIONS.
THIS POINTS TOWARD A BUILDING MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL EC HAS
BEEN INDICATING A LINGERING CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW NEAR THE NC/SC
COAST INTO FRI AND SAT. GIVEN THE RECENT BOUT WITH CLOSED LOWS OVER
OUR REGION LATELY... THIS SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE... BUT IT IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY TELECONNECTIONS AND MOST ENSEMBLE FORECASTS.
WITH THIS IN MIND... WE WILL TREND TO A DRIER AND WARMER FORECAST BY
NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IF THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DOES
DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY... OUR REGION WOULD STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A NE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WOULD KEEP OUR REGION
COOLER THAN THE AREAS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WHERE 90+ DEGREE HEAT
WILL BE FOUND (LOUISVILLE TO COLUMBUS TO PITTSBURGH AND NEW YORK
CITY). OUR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM SATURDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
AT ALL SITES. THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY FOR AVIATION WILL
BE THE WINDS AS GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AT ALL
STATIONS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT ALL SITES FOR THE
TAF PERIOD. WITH A DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR
FOG OR LOW STRATUS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT AT 5-10 KNOTS SO THIS WOULD ALSO HINDER ANY FOG
POSSIBILITY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.
FOR THE LONG TERM...AS LOW PRESSURE CHURNS OFF THE COAST CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK IN FROM THE EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
KRWI...AND KFAY WILL BE THE TWO SITES MOST AFFECTED BY THIS. WHILE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPOTTY A FEW MVFR CEILINGS COULD BE POSSIBLE.
LATER IN THE WEEK...TUESDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADVERSE
CONDITIONS WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...ELLIS
000
FXUS62 KRAH 191832
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
125 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...
WATCHING THE SATELLITE IMAGES CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST HAS GAINED SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS OR SO. IT IS BECOMING MORE EVIDENT THAT IT IN
FACT HAS MAINTAINED ITSELF MUCH BETTER THAN THE STILL VERY WEAK LOW
OFF OF THE VIRGINA COAST. THIS SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR THE NAM MODEL
SOLUTION OVER THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
IS MONITORING THE SYSTEM AND HAS BEGUN ISSUANCE OF SPECIAL TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOKS. AS OF 1155 AM THEY HAVE GIVEN IT A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE 48 HOURS...IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR
IT WOULD MOST LIKELY FORM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND BRING MINIMAL
THREATS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTLINE. WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AS THEY
ARE IN THE LOW 70S WITH A FEW DEGREES HIGHER OVER THE GULF STREAM.
POLAR ORBITING SATELLITES SHOW A HEALTHIER NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STORM WITH NOT MUCH WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE AT THIS TIME.
REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM... IT
IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND
THEREFORE IMPACTS ON THE RALEIGH CWA SHOULD BE MINIMAL IF ANY. AN
UPDATE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SHOULD BE AVAILABLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON A PLEASANT BUT BREEZY DAY WITH WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT COOL BUT SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S. DRY DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP FOG AND LOW
STRATUS OUT OF MOST AREAS TONIGHT.
FOR TOMORROW WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST WITH POPS ELEVATED
SLIGHTLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. CLOUD COVER AND ANY POTENTIAL
SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE TRIANGLE EASTWARDS WITH HIGHER
CHANCES OF BOTH FURTHER TO THE EAST. A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY THAN
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH AND OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF AN 80 DEGREE READING IN THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY RELAXED FROM SATURDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS SPEEDS OF 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM SATURDAY...
MODELS ARE HAVING GREAT DIFFICULTY WITH THE CURRENT LOW PRESSURE
AREAS OFF THE VA AND SC COAST. THIS LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE
FORECASTS FOR THIS WEEK. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE DAYS WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY... WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY AND EVEN THURSDAY.
THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION RIGHT NOW APPEARS TO BE THAT ONE MID-UPPER
LOW WILL FINALLY GET PULLED NE AWAY FROM OUR REGION MONDAY... BUT IT
WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL APPROACH
WESTERN NC LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
(PER THE LATEST NAM). WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE HIGHEST POP
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE WEST... AND TUESDAY IN THE CENTRAL
AND EAST. DUE TO THE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS... WE WILL CARRY
HIGH CHANCE POPS AND NOT CARRY LIKELY POP UNTIL LATER FORECASTS ARE
CONSIDERED. QPF OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH FOR THE MON-WED PERIOD SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXTEND THE CURRENT WET PERIOD THAT HAS BEEN GOING FOR
SEVERAL WEEKS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL INCLUDE... VARIABLY CLOUDY MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARMER AND HUMID WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S. HIGHS 80-85. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
LOWS IN THE 60S. HIGHS 78-84. A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED-THU. LOWS IN THE 60S. HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM SATURDAY...
WITH DIFFERENCES ABOUND IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE
DETAILS OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND NC/VA MID WEEK... WE
WILL FOLLOW THE PROPOSED BLEND OF 00Z ECMWF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTIONS.
THIS POINTS TOWARD A BUILDING MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL EC HAS
BEEN INDICATING A LINGERING CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW NEAR THE NC/SC
COAST INTO FRI AND SAT. GIVEN THE RECENT BOUT WITH CLOSED LOWS OVER
OUR REGION LATELY... THIS SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE... BUT IT IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY TELECONNECTIONS AND MOST ENSEMBLE FORECASTS.
WITH THIS IN MIND... WE WILL TREND TO A DRIER AND WARMER FORECAST BY
NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IF THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DOES
DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY... OUR REGION WOULD STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A NE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WOULD KEEP OUR REGION
COOLER THAN THE AREAS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WHERE 90+ DEGREE HEAT
WILL BE FOUND (LOUISVILLE TO COLUMBUS TO PITTSBURGH AND NEW YORK
CITY). OUR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM SATURDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
AT ALL SITES. THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY FOR AVIATION WILL
BE THE WINDS AS GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AT ALL
STATIONS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT ALL SITES FOR THE
TAF PERIOD. WITH A DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR
FOG OR LOW STRATUS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT AT 5-10 KNOTS SO THIS WOULD ALSO HINDER ANY FOG
POSSIBILITY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.
FOR THE LONG TERM...AS LOW PRESSURE CHURNS OFF THE COAST CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK IN FROM THE EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
KRWI...AND KFAY WILL BE THE TWO SITES MOST AFFECTED BY THIS. WHILE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPOTTY A FEW MVFR CEILINGS COULD BE POSSIBLE.
LATER IN THE WEEK...TUESDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADVERSE
CONDITIONS WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...ELLIS
000
FXUS62 KILM 191741
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
141 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE
CAROLINA COAST...BRINGING RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THEN STALL NEARBY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE WEATHER
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA IS STARTING TO
LOOK MORE INTERESTING ON RADAR AND SATELLITE AND NHC HAS
INCREASED THE DEVELOPMENT PROBABILITY TO 50%. HOWEVER THE LOW IS
DRIFTING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH ONLY MINIMAL IMPACT EXPECTED
FOR THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOW HAS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
OUTFLOW ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF IT...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A
SIGNIFICANT CIRRUS SHIELD OVER THE REGION. THICK HIGH CLOUD AND
STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. BOTH WILL HELP KEEP LOWS ACROSS THE AREA ABOVE
CLIMO...MORE SO AT THE COAST VS INLAND WHERE WINDS WILL BE A BIT
LIGHTER AND CLOUDS A LITTLE THINNER. RADAR TRENDS DO SUGGEST SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS BRUSHING THE SC COAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOOKS
LIKE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY INTO TONIGHT. NOW
APPEARS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN OFF THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. STILL...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
THE MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OFF THE SC COAST DID NOT
WANT TO PULL PRECIP FROM THE FORECAST. GOING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POP ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTION FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY THIS PERIOD...SMALL
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY OR MAY NOT ATTAIN HYBRID TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS WILL BE CENTRAL TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE WITH ONLY A GRADUAL RETROGRESSION
THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES
BEGINS TO KICK IT OUT. UNSETTLED WEATHER THUS ON TAP FOR MOST OF THE
SHORT TERM ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD END UP BEING CONFINED TO
THE COAST WHERE DIRECT MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARM ADVECTION WILL
COINCIDE. THE COOLER AIRMASS INLAND WILL SERVE AS AN OVERRUNNING
SURFACE HOWEVER AND WRF DOES SHOW SOME STRATIFORM RAINFALL BREAKING
OUT BY MIDDAY SUNDAY OVER WESTERN ZONES. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES BUT NAILING DOWN
WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF IS WARRANTED IS TRICKY THIS FAR OUT.
AT LEAST BY 00Z MONDAY PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEMS CIRCULATION WILL
START BEING SAMPLED BY RAOBS FROM CHS AND MHX WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE
FORECAST CERTAINTY. CURRENT FORECAST HEDGED SOME TOWARDS THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE WRF (WHICH INITIALIZED BEST WITH THE POSITION OF THE LOW)
BUT TRIMS POPS SLIGHTLY BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT IN DEFERENCE TO HPC
PREFERENCE OF OTHER GUIDANCE BEYOND ABOUT 12HRS. MANY MODELS OTHER
THAN THE WRF WEAKEN THE LOW OFF OF CAPE FEAR DUE TO INTERACTION FROM
A RETROGRESSION OF ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AROUND
70W/36N...WELL E OF VA. COULD JUST AS EASILY SEE HOW THAT SYSTEM
PEELS OFF TO THE NE INTO ITS OWN WAA ZONE AND THE WRF HAS MORE OF
THE RIGHT IDEA. GIVEN ALL PREV DISCUSSED ANOTHER POINT OF FCST
UNCERTAINTY IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT EVEN THOUGH THE WRF TRACK MAY BE
CLOSEST TO WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS SOME RATHER DRY AIR MAY HANG ON
OVER WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA SEVERELY CUTTING DOWN ON RAIN CHANCES.
DESPITE SOME OF THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS THE CHANCE FOR FLOODING
PROBLEMS WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS LOW SINCE IT REMAINS DISCONNECTED
FROM THE DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE SHUNTED WELL OFFSHORE BY THE LAST
FROPA. ONCE THE FRONTAL INVERSION RETREATS WESTWARD BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL ALSO BECOME RATHER BREEZY. MOST
PLACES STUCK IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ON
SUN ALTHOUGH THE COOLER AIR SLIDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
COULD KEEP SOME LOCATIONS COOLER. MONDAY MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
DESPITE THE CONTINUED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN AS WARM AIR CONTINUES
TO ADVECT IN FROM THE EAST. MONDAYS TEMP FORECAST MAY EVEN HINGE ON
THE THERMAL STRUCTURE/BAROCLINICITY OF THE LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...GREAT LAKES TROUGH THAT ULTIMATELY LEADS TO
THE EXIT OF THE SHORT TERM STORM SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO A WEAK
CUTOFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
TERM. LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WILL BRING A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
MS/TN VALLEY SHUNTING THE SYSTEM...OR WHATS LEFT OF IT...SOUTHWARD.
IN THE END WEATHER LOCALLY MAY BE A BIT UNSETTLED THOUGH NO
PARTICULAR DAY SHOULD BE A WASH PER SE. ECMWF A LITTLE STRONGER BUT
ALSO FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM IMPLYING THAT DRY AIR COULD WRAP
INTO THE CAROLINAS AROUND ITS SOUTH SIDE BY LATE WED OR THEREABOUTS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE SITUATED OFF THE COAST
TODAY...THE CLOSEST AND MOST POTENT SOUTHEAST OF MYR. THE TERMINALS
ARE CURRENTLY MORE UNDER THE EFFECT HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED TO THE
NORTHWEST.
MODELS ARE DEPICTING VARIOUS SOLUTIONS AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE...BUT ALL PROGS KEEP ANY RAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH
THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. THUS NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS/VFR
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR
CEILINGS/VCSH AT ILM LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/TEMPO
IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS WITH
LATEST FROM 41013 AROUND 27 KT AND 10 FT SEAS. CLOSER TO SHORE
REPORTS ARE 15 TO 20 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FT. SURFACE LOW SOUTH
OF THE WATERS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT WEST-SOUTHWEST AS IT
BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED. GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN UNCHANGED
OVERNIGHT...WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW STAYING IN THE 20 TO 25 KT
RANGE AWAY FROM SHORE AND CLOSER TO 15 TO 20 KT ALONG THE COAST.
SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 FT OR LESS ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COAST AND
SHELTER PORTIONS OF FRYING PAN SHOALS TO 7 FT ACROSS WATERS OPEN
TO NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW. WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MADE UP LARGELY
OF A NORTHEAST SWELL...6 TO 7 SECONDS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECLINES MORE THAN
USUAL DURING THE SHORT TERM AS SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST HAS A VERY UNCERTAIN FUTURE. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RETROGRADE
SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING AN INCREASED NE WIND.
CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS A RATHER PESSIMISTIC CONTINUATION OF THIS
TREND ALTHOUGH OTHER GUIDANCE WEAKENS THE SYSTEM CONSIDERABLY.
OTHER HIGH RES MODELS SINK THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD AND WOULD
SIMILARLY IMPLY SLIGHTLY MORE BENIGN CONDITIONS THAN CURRENT FCST.
BEST ESTIMATE AT THIS TIME IS THAT SYSTEM WILL STILL BE STRONG AND
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO WARRANT HEADLINES ON SUNDAY EVEN IF ONLY FOR
MARGINAL/6FT SEAS MAINLY OVER NRN ZONES. MANY REFINEMENTS OF THIS
FCST APPEAR LIKELY ESPECIALLY SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL BE BETTER
SAMPLED BY ROBS FROM CHS AND MHX WITH TIME. FCST SHOWS GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT ON MONDAY WITH TWO SEEMING POSSIBILITIES. ONE IS THAT
THE SYSTEM IS NO LONGER VERY CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE. THE OTHER IS
SHOWN BY THE WRF SOLUTION THAT BRINGS THE SYSTEM CLOSE ENOUGH FOR
LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS COMPARED TO THE GUSTY NE WINDS
CURRENTLY ALONG THE SYSTEMS WEST SIDE THAT SHOULD LAST INTO
SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...JUST SOME WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGHINESS EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH PESKY UPPER LOW MAY BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER OTHERWISE. A GENERAL SW FLOW NO HIGHER THAN 10 TO 15 KTS
APPEARS LIKELY WITH NO FLAGS/HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
000
FXUS62 KRAH 191725
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
125 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1130 AM SATURDAY...
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICT A LOW PRESSURE AREA SPINNING OFF OF
THE CAROLINA COAST IN BETWEEN MYRTLE BEACH AND WILMINGTON. WHILE
THIS LOW HAS CAPTURED MUCH OF THE ATTENTION WITH REGARDS TO
CONVECTION...ANOTHER LOW IS DEPICTED FORMING OFF OF THE VIRGINA
COASTLINE. ALTHOUGH BOTH LOWS ARE CURRENTLY ANALYZED IN ALL OF THE
MAJOR MODELS...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHICH LOW WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
HAVE THE NORTHERN LOW TAKING OVER AND RETROGRADING BACK TOWARDS THE
CAROLINA COAST IN A FUJIWARA-LIKE MANNER...WITH ONE LOW ROTATING
AROUND THE OTHER. MEANWHILE...A THIRD LOW FORMS IN THE CARIBBEAN
AND MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...POTENTIALLY ACTING AS A MOISTURE
SOURCE FOR THE LOW OFF THE VA COAST LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS SCENARIO
WILL BE SLOW TO EVOLVE...THUS KEEPING MOST OF OUR AREA DRY FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE NORTHEAST LATER ON
SUNDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS AS DRY AIR HAS BEGUN TO
WRAP AROUND THE PRIMARY LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND IT IS HARD TO
SEE A MOISTURE SOURCE BEING SUSTAINED FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. -ELLIS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW THE UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER.. THERE IS SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND SREF MEMBERS OF A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING EAST OF
THE VA TIDEWATER REGION AS VORTICITY STREAMING NORTH FROM THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS WRAPPED INTO THE UPPER LOW. THESE MODELS SHOW
THIS SURFACE LOW BECOMING THE PRIMARY LOW AND RETROGRADING INLAND
OVER THE OBX ON SUNDAY. THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND CANADIAN MODEL ARE
SOMEWHAT OF OUTLIERS AS THEY SHOW THE CURRENT LOW OFF THE WILMINGTON
COAST REMAINING THE PRIMARY LOW AND MOVING ONSHORE NEAR WILMINGTON.
WHILE THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING WITH THE
CIRCULATION OFFSHORE CANT BE IGNORED AS POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING THE
SURFACE LOW TOWARD A NAM-LIKE SOLUTION...WE WILL FAVOR THE SREF
SOLUTION WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS. POPS WILL
INCREASE TO CHANCE ON THE EAST ON SUNDAY...MAINLY EAST OF US HWY 1
AND HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AS THAT IS WHERE MODELS
SHOW MOISTURE FLUX RAMPING UP THE MOST BY SUNDAY EVENING. HIGHS
SHOULD MOSTLY BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A SHARPER GRADIENT IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND AND
MORE SUN TO THE WEST. WE HAVE GONE CLOSEST TO THE MAV GUIDANCE WITH
LOWER 80S WEST AND MID 70S EAST. -SMITH
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM SATURDAY...
MODELS ARE HAVING GREAT DIFFICULTY WITH THE CURRENT LOW PRESSURE
AREAS OFF THE VA AND SC COAST. THIS LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE
FORECASTS FOR THIS WEEK. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE DAYS WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY... WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY AND EVEN THURSDAY.
THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION RIGHT NOW APPEARS TO BE THAT ONE MID-UPPER
LOW WILL FINALLY GET PULLED NE AWAY FROM OUR REGION MONDAY... BUT IT
WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL APPROACH
WESTERN NC LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
(PER THE LATEST NAM). WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE HIGHEST POP
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE WEST... AND TUESDAY IN THE CENTRAL
AND EAST. DUE TO THE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS... WE WILL CARRY
HIGH CHANCE POPS AND NOT CARRY LIKELY POP UNTIL LATER FORECASTS ARE
CONSIDERED. QPF OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH FOR THE MON-WED PERIOD SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXTEND THE CURRENT WET PERIOD THAT HAS BEEN GOING FOR
SEVERAL WEEKS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL INCLUDE... VARIABLY CLOUDY MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARMER AND HUMID WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S. HIGHS 80-85. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
LOWS IN THE 60S. HIGHS 78-84. A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED-THU. LOWS IN THE 60S. HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM SATURDAY...
WITH DIFFERENCES ABOUND IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE
DETAILS OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND NC/VA MID WEEK... WE
WILL FOLLOW THE PROPOSED BLEND OF 00Z ECMWF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTIONS.
THIS POINTS TOWARD A BUILDING MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL EC HAS
BEEN INDICATING A LINGERING CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW NEAR THE NC/SC
COAST INTO FRI AND SAT. GIVEN THE RECENT BOUT WITH CLOSED LOWS OVER
OUR REGION LATELY... THIS SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE... BUT IT IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY TELECONNECTIONS AND MOST ENSEMBLE FORECASTS.
WITH THIS IN MIND... WE WILL TREND TO A DRIER AND WARMER FORECAST BY
NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IF THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DOES
DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY... OUR REGION WOULD STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A NE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WOULD KEEP OUR REGION
COOLER THAN THE AREAS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WHERE 90+ DEGREE HEAT
WILL BE FOUND (LOUISVILLE TO COLUMBUS TO PITTSBURGH AND NEW YORK
CITY). OUR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM SATURDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
AT ALL SITES. THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY FOR AVIATION WILL
BE THE WINDS AS GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AT ALL
STATIONS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT ALL SITES FOR THE
TAF PERIOD. WITH A DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR
FOG OR LOW STRATUS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT AT 5-10 KNOTS SO THIS WOULD ALSO HINDER ANY FOG
POSSIBILITY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.
FOR THE LONG TERM...AS LOW PRESSURE CHURNS OFF THE COAST CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK IN FROM THE EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
KRWI...AND KFAY WILL BE THE TWO SITES MOST AFFECTED BY THIS. WHILE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPOTTY A FEW MVFR CEILINGS COULD BE POSSIBLE.
LATER IN THE WEEK...TUESDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADVERSE
CONDITIONS WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...ELLIS/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...ELLIS
000
FXUS62 KRAH 191720
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
120 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLS OUT AND
DRIFTS TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1130 AM SATURDAY...
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICT A LOW PRESSURE AREA SPINNING OFF OF
THE CAROLINA COAST IN BETWEEN MYRTLE BEACH AND WILMINGTON. WHILE
THIS LOW HAS CAPTURED MUCH OF THE ATTENTION WITH REGARDS TO
CONVECTION...ANOTHER LOW IS DEPICTED FORMING OFF OF THE VIRGINA
COASTLINE. ALTHOUGH BOTH LOWS ARE CURRENTLY ANALYZED IN ALL OF THE
MAJOR MODELS...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHICH LOW WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
HAVE THE NORTHERN LOW TAKING OVER AND RETROGRADING BACK TOWARDS THE
CAROLINA COAST IN A FUJIWARA-LIKE MANNER...WITH ONE LOW ROTATING
AROUND THE OTHER. MEANWHILE...A THIRD LOW FORMS IN THE CARIBBEAN
AND MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...POTENTIALLY ACTING AS A MOISTURE
SOURCE FOR THE LOW OFF THE VA COAST LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS SCENARIO
WILL BE SLOW TO EVOLVE...THUS KEEPING MOST OF OUR AREA DRY FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE NORTHEAST LATER ON
SUNDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS AS DRY AIR HAS BEGUN TO
WRAP AROUND THE PRIMARY LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND IT IS HARD TO
SEE A MOISTURE SOURCE BEING SUSTAINED FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. -ELLIS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW THE UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER.. THERE IS SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND SREF MEMBERS OF A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING EAST OF
THE VA TIDEWATER REGION AS VORTICITY STREAMING NORTH FROM THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS WRAPPED INTO THE UPPER LOW. THESE MODELS SHOW
THIS SURFACE LOW BECOMING THE PRIMARY LOW AND RETROGRADING INLAND
OVER THE OBX ON SUNDAY. THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND CANADIAN MODEL ARE
SOMEWHAT OF OUTLIERS AS THEY SHOW THE CURRENT LOW OFF THE WILMINGTON
COAST REMAINING THE PRIMARY LOW AND MOVING ONSHORE NEAR WILMINGTON.
WHILE THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING WITH THE
CIRCULATION OFFSHORE CANT BE IGNORED AS POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING THE
SURFACE LOW TOWARD A NAM-LIKE SOLUTION...WE WILL FAVOR THE SREF
SOLUTION WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS. POPS WILL
INCREASE TO CHANCE ON THE EAST ON SUNDAY...MAINLY EAST OF US HWY 1
AND HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AS THAT IS WHERE MODELS
SHOW MOISTURE FLUX RAMPING UP THE MOST BY SUNDAY EVENING. HIGHS
SHOULD MOSTLY BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A SHARPER GRADIENT IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND AND
MORE SUN TO THE WEST. WE HAVE GONE CLOSEST TO THE MAV GUIDANCE WITH
LOWER 80S WEST AND MID 70S EAST. -SMITH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM SATURDAY...
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT: THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL AGREE ON BRINGING THE MID
LEVEL LOW ONSHORE OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... WITH THE SURFACE LOW
JUST NORTHEAST OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE ECMWF IS THE
FARTHEST NORTH OVER NE NC... WHILE THE NAM IS THE MOST SOUTHERLY
NEAR MYR. THE SREF MEAN IS A GOOD MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD SOLUTION...
VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS AND JUST SOUTH OF THE ECMWF... WHICH ITSELF
HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT SINCE ITS MIDWEEK RUNS IN BRINGING A
BAGGY MID LEVEL LOW INLAND. WHILE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE
RELATIVELY MINOR OVERALL... THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW RESULTS
IN SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REGARDING SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE
CAROLINAS. THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS DEPICT STEADY MOISTENING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOWEST 3 KM AND PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN CWA. THE
MODEL 6-HOURLY QPF VALUES SUNDAY NIGHT APPEAR OVERDONE IN AMOUNTS...
AS THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP AREAWIDE HOLD AT
OR UNDER 50 PERCENT... AND THE GFS SHOWS RATHER LIMITED UPGLIDE
OUTSIDE OF THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA (AND EVEN HERE IT IS CONFINED TO
THE 295K-300K LAYER). BUT THE DEGREE OF MOISTENING AND LIFT IN THE
NE CWA DOES SUPPORT DECENT COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE HERE
OVERNIGHT. WILL ADJUST POPS A BIT TO RANGE FROM JUST 10-20% IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA TO 40-50% IN THE NORTHEAST INCLUDING ROANOKE RAPIDS
AND ROCKY MOUNT. UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES... EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE
FROM 58 IN THE WEST TO 63 NORTHEAST AS PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
DRIVES UP DEW POINTS.
FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL LOW STEADILY LOSES ITS
DEFINITION AND BECOMES POORLY DEFINED MONDAY AS IT BECOMES NEARLY
STALLED OVER ERN NC. AS THE VORTEX NOW OVER ALBERTA MOVES EAST TO
HUDSON BAY BY MONDAY... A WAVE NOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DROPS
INTO THE TROUGH BASE AND ALSO HEADS EASTWARD WHILE MERGING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. ACCORDING TO THE
REMARKABLY CONSISTENT ECMWF... IT IS THIS RESULTANT WAVE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER WI/MI/IL/IN/KY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND HELP
PULL THE NC MID LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF THE
AREA... AS A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE APPALACHIANS
FROM THE NW. THE ECMWF HAS A RATHER WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND DEEPENING OH VALLEY
WAVE... AND AS SUCH HAS WEAK TO NO FORCING FOR ASCENT AND A RELATIVE
LULL IN PRECIP OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SO MUCH
MODEL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THESE DETAILS... AND WITH THE GFS STILL
GENERATING COPIOUS CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON ... AM RELUCTANT TO REMOVE ALL POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD (ALTHOUGH THE GFS`S 1400-1800 J/KG OF MLCAPE MONDAY AFTERNOON
APPEARS ABNORMALLY HIGH AND MAY BE BASED ON A TOO-WARM NEAR-SURFACE
LAYER). BUT WILL ATTEMPT TO FOCUS THE HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EAST... WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE ACCOMPANYING STEEPENING (YET STILL MODEST NEAR 6 C/KM) MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PLENTIFUL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. THE SREF
APPEARS TO SUPPORT A WETTER GFS-ISH SOLUTION WITH MEASURABLE PRECIP
PROBABILITIES OF 70-90% OVER THE EASTERN CWA ON MONDAY. HIGHS 75-80
WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN. EXPECT WARM LOWS OF 60-64 WITH
CONVECTIVE-DEBRIS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND A HIGH PROBABILITY OF
FOG/STRATUS. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...
FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH BRING THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS TO THE APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY... ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF BECOMES A
BIT STRONGER DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW WITHIN THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
THE STRENGTHENING AND INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT SOUTH/SW LOW LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT YIELDS HIGH COVERAGE OF PREFRONTAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL NC ON TUESDAY... AND BASED ON GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT WITH THIS... WILL BUMP UP POPS A BIT ON TUESDAY. AS THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST INTO WRN NC/VA ON WEDNESDAY... THE
GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD ACCORDINGLY SHIFT INTO EASTERN
NC. THE GFS DOES DEVELOP ITS OWN WEAK MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER VA
BY THIS TIME... LEADING TO CONTINUED STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY.
AS THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH STALL OUT THIS LOW OVER NC/VA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT... EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TO ALSO LINGER INTO THE
NIGHT. WITH AN ATYPICALLY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE OF THICKNESSES... WILL
HOLD ONTO ABOVE NORMAL LOWS AND NEAR NORMAL HIGHS.
FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY: THE WET PATTERN WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS APPEARS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE
WEEK ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF... WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVING VERY
LITTLE. THE ECMWF`S STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING
THROUGH CENTRAL NC THURSDAY EVENTUALLY WEAKENS IN FAVOR OF A
DEEPENING ONSHORE-FLOW... INDICATIVE OF POSSIBLE NUMEROUS
TROPICAL-LIKE SHOWERS. WILL RETAIN GOOD CHANCE POPS FOCUSED ON (BUT
NOT LIMITED TO) EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S AND HIGHS CLOSE TO 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM SATURDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
AT ALL SITES. THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY FOR AVIATION WILL
BE THE WINDS AS GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AT ALL
STATIONS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT ALL SITES FOR THE
TAF PERIOD. WITH A DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR
FOG OR LOW STRATUS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT AT 5-10 KNOTS SO THIS WOULD ALSO HINDER ANY FOG
POSSIBILITY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.
FOR THE LONG TERM...AS LOW PRESSURE CHURNS OFF THE COAST CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK IN FROM THE EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
KRWI...AND KFAY WILL BE THE TWO SITES MOST AFFECTED BY THIS. WHILE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPOTTY A FEW MVFR CEILINGS COULD BE POSSIBLE.
LATER IN THE WEEK...TUESDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADVERSE
CONDITIONS WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...ELLIS/SMITH
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS
000
FXUS62 KMHX 191558
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1158 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AS A
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1155 AM SAT...HAVE TAKEN MENTION OF ALL PRECIP OUT OF FCST
FOR THIS AFTN EXCEPT FOR OUTER SRN COASTAL WATERS. RAISED HIGH
TEMPS INTO THE LWR TO MID 70S FOR THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA.
PREV DISC...PRECIP NOW NAM12 HAS BEST HANDLE ON PLACEMENT OF SURFACE
LOW THIS MORNING BEING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER THAN
OTHER MODELS. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND OFF THE
SC/NC COAST THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN AND
TO CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO EASTERN NC. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL HELP KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED. SKY WILL START TO FILL IN
AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE AS TEMPERATURES RISE. BREEZES WILL INCREASE WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE SURFACE LOW. INCREASED CLOUD
COVER SUPPORT LOWERING HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...BUT NOT BY AS MUCH
AS NAM. WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN
EASTERN 2/3 OF CWA...MID 70S AWAY FROM THE EFFECTS OF THE OVERCAST
SKIES. WILL CONTINUE BEACH HAZARD FOR HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND
HIGH SURF ALONG AREA BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1155 AM SAT...LOOKS LIKE PRECIP CHCS WILL BE NIL TONIGHT AS
WELL...BUT WILL WAIT FOR GFS MODEL TO COME IN AND WILL UPDATE ON
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
PREV DISC...NAM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT. UPPER
PATTERN SUPPORTS A MORE OPEN...LESS DEEP LOW...SO WILL LEAN MORE
TOWARD ENSEMBLES SOLUTION FOR TONIGHT. THIS BRINGS THE SURFACE LOW
FURTHER NORTH AND RETROGRADES TOWARD THE COAST SLOWER THAN THE
NAM. HOWEVER THIS ALLOWS MORE ENERGY OVER THE COASTAL SECTIONS FOR
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIP ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. ENSEMBLE
BLEND OF TEMPERATURES HAS MID 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH MID 60S
ALONG THE COAST. STILL DONT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF AS
MAJORITY OF PRECIP WILL FALL OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...MDLS SHOW SIMILAR TRENDS OF STACKED LOW
PRESSURE DRIFTING W AND ONSHORE SUNDAY INTO MON...THEN SLOWLY
LIFTING NE OF REGION TUE AS NEXT SRT WAVE APPROACHES. DETAILS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN ON POSITION OF SFC LOW AND QPF...HOWEVER GENERAL TRENDS
WILL BE FOR INCREASING MOISTURE AND BETTER CVRG OF SHRA SUN INTO
MON. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHC SUN AND INLAND MON...LATER SHIFTS
MAY BE ABLE TO BUMP THESE UP TO LIKELY IN AREAS IF MDLS COME INTO
MORE AGREEMENT. AS MOISTURE INCREASES SUN AND MON WILL SEE SOME
WEAK INSTAB DEVELOP SO ADDED MENTION OF TSRA ALL BUT DEEP INLAND
AREAS SUNDAY AFTN AND ALL LOCATION MON. WILL CONT TO SEE SCT SHRA
AND FEW TSRA INTO TUE AS INIT SYSTEM LIFTS SLOWLY NE AND NEXT ONE
APPROACHES. MDLS AGAIN SHOW MID/UPR LOW DEVELOPING MID WEEK ACROSS
THE REGION...MOISTURE LOOKS A BIT LESS WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT WILL
MAINTAIN CHC POPS. THIS LOW WILL GRAD WEAKEN AND SHIFT E LATE IN
WEEK WITH GRAD DECREASE CHCS OF PRECIP BUT WL STILL HAVE AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHC. HIGHS WILL HOLD IN THE 70S SUNDAY THEN SHLD GRAD WARM
TO LOWER 80S INLAND REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1155 AM SAT...PATCHES OF MAINLY MVFR ST OVER ERN SECTIONS
DIMINISHING AND ADVECTING SW. SHOULD SEE VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF
SITES THIS AFTN.
PREV DISC...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TAFS WILL HAVE PERIODS
OF MVFR IN LOWER CIGS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
COAST... SPECIFICALLY AT OAJ.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE SUN AND MON AS STACKED
LOW DRIFTS ONSHORE...THIS WILL LEAD TO DECENT CVRG OF SHRA AND
POSS A FEW TSRA WITH PERIOD OF REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES. SYSTEM
SLOWLY LIFT NE OF REGION TUE HOWEVER WILL LIKELY HAVE ENOUGH LOW
LVL MOISTURE FOR POSS STRATUS EARLY IN MORN THEN SOME MVFR CIGS
LATER IN THE MORN. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL CUTOFF TO THE W OF REGION
WED AND THIS WILL AGAIN LEAD TO SCT CONVECTION AND PERIODS OF
REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1155 AM SAT...NO CHANGES TO MARINE FCST. NE-NE WINDS 20-25 KT
ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTN WITH SEAS IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE
FOR THE NRN AND CNTRL WATERS AND 4-7 FT SRN WATERS.
PREV DISC...SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTION CONTINUE WITH THIS
RUN. NAM12 HAS INITIALIZED THE BEST TONIGHT WITH PLACEMENT OF
SURFACE LOW OFF THE NC/SC COAST...BUT DEEPENS IT TOO MUCH TONIGHT.
NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE 8 TO 10 FEET IN NORTHERN
WATERS WITH NORTHEAST FETCH. SEAS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 7 FEET IN
SOUTHERN WATERS. LOW WILL BECOME DOUBLE BARREL AS ANOTHER WAVE
DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHER WATERS LATER TODAY AND RETROGRADES TOWARDS
THE COAST TONIGHT. GRADIENT WILL START TO LOOSEN AS LOW APPROACHES
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS OVER THE SOUNDS TO DROP BELOW SCA
CRITERIA LATER TONIGHT...BUT THEY WILL STAY ABOVE SCA CRITERIA OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...SFC LOW EXPECTED TO REACH CST
SUNDAY...EXACT LOCATION STILL UNCERTAIN BUT LEANING TWRD GFS WITH
LOW NEAR CENTRAL CST SUNDAY. PLACEMENT OF LOW WILL OBVIOUSLY GREATLY
IMPACT WIND DIR HOWEVER WITH OW ALONG THE CST SPEEDS FOR THE MOST
PART SO REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS. LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE INTO TUE
WITH WIND DIR GRAD BECOMING MORE SW AT LESS THAN 15 KTS. SW FLOW
EXPECTED TO CONT INTO WED AS ANOTHER STACKED LOW DVLPS TO THE W.
SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE ALTER SUN AND SUN NIGHT WITH SC ENDING
FROM S TO N ON COASTAL WTRS. DESPITE RATHER LIGHT WINDS WAVEWATCH
CONTS TO SHOW 4 TO 5 FT SEAS OUTER WTRS THRU MID WEEK WITH
LINGERING SE SWELL.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ095-
103-104.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ130-135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG/JAC
SHORT TERM...CGG/JAC
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CGG/JAC/RF
MARINE...CGG/JAC/RF
000
FXUS62 KRAH 191531
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1131 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLS OUT AND
DRIFTS TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1130 AM SATURDAY...
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICT A LOW PRESSURE AREA SPINNING OFF OF
THE CAROLINA COAST IN BETWEEN MYRTLE BEACH AND WILMINGTON. WHILE
THIS LOW HAS CAPTURED MUCH OF THE ATTENTION WITH REGARDS TO
CONVECTION...ANOTHER LOW IS DEPICTED FORMING OFF OF THE VIRGINA
COASTLINE. ALTHOUGH BOTH LOWS ARE CURRENTLY ANALYZED IN ALL OF THE
MAJOR MODELS...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHICH LOW WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
HAVE THE NORTHERN LOW TAKING OVER AND RETROGRADING BACK TOWARDS THE
CAROLINA COAST IN A FUJIWARA-LIKE MANNER...WITH ONE LOW ROTATING
AROUND THE OTHER. MEANWHILE...A THIRD LOW FORMS IN THE CARIBBEAN
AND MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...POTENTIALLY ACTING AS A MOISTURE
SOURCE FOR THE LOW OFF THE VA COAST LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS SCENARIO
WILL BE SLOW TO EVOLVE...THUS KEEPING MOST OF OUR AREA DRY FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE NORTHEAST LATER ON
SUNDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS AS DRY AIR HAS BEGUN TO
WRAP AROUND THE PRIMARY LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND IT IS HARD TO
SEE A MOISTURE SOURCE BEING SUSTAINED FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. -ELLIS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW THE UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER.. THERE IS SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND SREF MEMBERS OF A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING EAST OF
THE VA TIDEWATER REGION AS VORTICITY STREAMING NORTH FROM THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS WRAPPED INTO THE UPPER LOW. THESE MODELS SHOW
THIS SURFACE LOW BECOMING THE PRIMARY LOW AND RETROGRADING INLAND
OVER THE OBX ON SUNDAY. THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND CANADIAN MODEL ARE
SOMEWHAT OF OUTLIERS AS THEY SHOW THE CURRENT LOW OFF THE WILMINGTON
COAST REMAINING THE PRIMARY LOW AND MOVING ONSHORE NEAR WILMINGTON.
WHILE THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING WITH THE
CIRCULATION OFFSHORE CANT BE IGNORED AS POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING THE
SURFACE LOW TOWARD A NAM-LIKE SOLUTION...WE WILL FAVOR THE SREF
SOLUTION WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS. POPS WILL
INCREASE TO CHANCE ON THE EAST ON SUNDAY...MAINLY EAST OF US HWY 1
AND HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AS THAT IS WHERE MODELS
SHOW MOISTURE FLUX RAMPING UP THE MOST BY SUNDAY EVENING. HIGHS
SHOULD MOSTLY BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A SHARPER GRADIENT IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND AND
MORE SUN TO THE WEST. WE HAVE GONE CLOSEST TO THE MAV GUIDANCE WITH
LOWER 80S WEST AND MID 70S EAST. -SMITH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM SATURDAY...
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT: THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL AGREE ON BRINGING THE MID
LEVEL LOW ONSHORE OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... WITH THE SURFACE LOW
JUST NORTHEAST OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE ECMWF IS THE
FARTHEST NORTH OVER NE NC... WHILE THE NAM IS THE MOST SOUTHERLY
NEAR MYR. THE SREF MEAN IS A GOOD MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD SOLUTION...
VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS AND JUST SOUTH OF THE ECMWF... WHICH ITSELF
HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT SINCE ITS MIDWEEK RUNS IN BRINGING A
BAGGY MID LEVEL LOW INLAND. WHILE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE
RELATIVELY MINOR OVERALL... THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW RESULTS
IN SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REGARDING SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE
CAROLINAS. THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS DEPICT STEADY MOISTENING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOWEST 3 KM AND PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN CWA. THE
MODEL 6-HOURLY QPF VALUES SUNDAY NIGHT APPEAR OVERDONE IN AMOUNTS...
AS THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP AREAWIDE HOLD AT
OR UNDER 50 PERCENT... AND THE GFS SHOWS RATHER LIMITED UPGLIDE
OUTSIDE OF THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA (AND EVEN HERE IT IS CONFINED TO
THE 295K-300K LAYER). BUT THE DEGREE OF MOISTENING AND LIFT IN THE
NE CWA DOES SUPPORT DECENT COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE HERE
OVERNIGHT. WILL ADJUST POPS A BIT TO RANGE FROM JUST 10-20% IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA TO 40-50% IN THE NORTHEAST INCLUDING ROANOKE RAPIDS
AND ROCKY MOUNT. UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES... EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE
FROM 58 IN THE WEST TO 63 NORTHEAST AS PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
DRIVES UP DEW POINTS.
FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL LOW STEADILY LOSES ITS
DEFINITION AND BECOMES POORLY DEFINED MONDAY AS IT BECOMES NEARLY
STALLED OVER ERN NC. AS THE VORTEX NOW OVER ALBERTA MOVES EAST TO
HUDSON BAY BY MONDAY... A WAVE NOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DROPS
INTO THE TROUGH BASE AND ALSO HEADS EASTWARD WHILE MERGING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. ACCORDING TO THE
REMARKABLY CONSISTENT ECMWF... IT IS THIS RESULTANT WAVE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER WI/MI/IL/IN/KY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND HELP
PULL THE NC MID LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF THE
AREA... AS A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE APPALACHIANS
FROM THE NW. THE ECMWF HAS A RATHER WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND DEEPENING OH VALLEY
WAVE... AND AS SUCH HAS WEAK TO NO FORCING FOR ASCENT AND A RELATIVE
LULL IN PRECIP OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SO MUCH
MODEL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THESE DETAILS... AND WITH THE GFS STILL
GENERATING COPIOUS CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON ... AM RELUCTANT TO REMOVE ALL POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD (ALTHOUGH THE GFS`S 1400-1800 J/KG OF MLCAPE MONDAY AFTERNOON
APPEARS ABNORMALLY HIGH AND MAY BE BASED ON A TOO-WARM NEAR-SURFACE
LAYER). BUT WILL ATTEMPT TO FOCUS THE HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EAST... WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE ACCOMPANYING STEEPENING (YET STILL MODEST NEAR 6 C/KM) MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PLENTIFUL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. THE SREF
APPEARS TO SUPPORT A WETTER GFS-ISH SOLUTION WITH MEASURABLE PRECIP
PROBABILITIES OF 70-90% OVER THE EASTERN CWA ON MONDAY. HIGHS 75-80
WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN. EXPECT WARM LOWS OF 60-64 WITH
CONVECTIVE-DEBRIS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND A HIGH PROBABILITY OF
FOG/STRATUS. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...
FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH BRING THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS TO THE APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY... ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF BECOMES A
BIT STRONGER DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW WITHIN THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
THE STRENGTHENING AND INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT SOUTH/SW LOW LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT YIELDS HIGH COVERAGE OF PREFRONTAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL NC ON TUESDAY... AND BASED ON GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT WITH THIS... WILL BUMP UP POPS A BIT ON TUESDAY. AS THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST INTO WRN NC/VA ON WEDNESDAY... THE
GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD ACCORDINGLY SHIFT INTO EASTERN
NC. THE GFS DOES DEVELOP ITS OWN WEAK MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER VA
BY THIS TIME... LEADING TO CONTINUED STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY.
AS THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH STALL OUT THIS LOW OVER NC/VA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT... EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TO ALSO LINGER INTO THE
NIGHT. WITH AN ATYPICALLY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE OF THICKNESSES... WILL
HOLD ONTO ABOVE NORMAL LOWS AND NEAR NORMAL HIGHS.
FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY: THE WET PATTERN WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS APPEARS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE
WEEK ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF... WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVING VERY
LITTLE. THE ECMWF`S STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING
THROUGH CENTRAL NC THURSDAY EVENTUALLY WEAKENS IN FAVOR OF A
DEEPENING ONSHORE-FLOW... INDICATIVE OF POSSIBLE NUMEROUS
TROPICAL-LIKE SHOWERS. WILL RETAIN GOOD CHANCE POPS FOCUSED ON (BUT
NOT LIMITED TO) EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S AND HIGHS CLOSE TO 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 710 AM SATURDAY...
HIGH CLOUDS ARE ABUNDANT OVER CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. STRATUS HAS
REMAINED CONFINED TO THE COAST AS DRY AIR COTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WIND THAT MAY APPROACH
10KT IN THE EAST. AS THE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE SLOWLY BEGINS TO
STRENGTHEN TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SURGE FURTHER
WESTWARD. BASED ON POOR AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS...THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN LOW CEILINGS REACHING KFAY AND KRWI BY 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS WILL BE
INCREASING SUNDAY MORNING.
LOOKING AHEAD:
THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS SUNDAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS WESTWARD ONSHORE SOMEWHERE OVER
NC/VA. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE THE LOW
WILL TRACK AND EXACTLY WHEN POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE WORSE OVER A MORE
PROLONGED PERIOD OVER EASTERN NC SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
ON TUESDAY...WITH CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...ELLIS/SMITH
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...SMITH
000
FXUS62 KILM 191448
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1048 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE
CAROLINA COAST...BRINGING RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THEN STALL NEARBY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE WEATHER
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...STACKED LOW OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING HAS
SLOWLY BEEN DRIFTING WEST-SOUTHWEST...A TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS HAS ALLOWED COOLER/DRIER AIR TO SPREAD
OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. FAR INLAND AREAS ARE SET UP FOR A
PLEASANT...IF NOT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TYPICAL FOR LATE MAY...DAY
AS A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. CLOSER TO THE COAST THE
NORTHEAST FLOW AND HIGH CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD UPPER LOW
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF
LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERSION. BOTH
WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE
GEORGETOWN COAST WHERE PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE WOBBLING
LOW MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT PRECIP ONSHORE DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. CLEARING INLAND WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS THAN
AT THE COAST...THE RANGE WILL BE FROM LOW 70S AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TO MID 70S WELL INLAND. GRADIENT WILL KEEP NORTHEAST WINDS
IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY HIGH CLOSE TO
THE COAST...GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY THIS PERIOD...SMALL
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY OR MAY NOT ATTAIN HYBRID TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS WILL BE CENTRAL TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE WITH ONLY A GRADUAL RETROGRESSION
THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES
BEGINS TO KICK IT OUT. UNSETTLED WEATHER THUS ON TAP FOR MOST OF THE
SHORT TERM ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD END UP BEING CONFINED TO
THE COAST WHERE DIRECT MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARM ADVECTION WILL
COINCIDE. THE COOLER AIRMASS INLAND WILL SERVE AS AN OVERRUNNING
SURFACE HOWEVER AND WRF DOES SHOW SOME STRATIFORM RAINFALL BREAKING
OUT BY MIDDAY SUNDAY OVER WESTERN ZONES. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES BUT NAILING DOWN
WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF IS WARRANTED IS TRICKY THIS FAR OUT.
AT LEAST BY 00Z MONDAY PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEMS CIRCULATION WILL
START BEING SAMPLED BY RAOBS FROM CHS AND MHX WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE
FORECAST CERTAINTY. CURRENT FORECAST HEDGED SOME TOWARDS THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE WRF (WHICH INITIALIZED BEST WITH THE POSITION OF THE LOW)
BUT TRIMS POPS SLIGHTLY BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT IN DEFERENCE TO HPC
PREFERENCE OF OTHER GUIDANCE BEYOND ABOUT 12HRS. MANY MODELS OTHER
THAN THE WRF WEAKEN THE LOW OFF OF CAPE FEAR DUE TO INTERACTION FROM
A RETROGRESSION OF ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AROUND
70W/36N...WELL E OF VA. COULD JUST AS EASILY SEE HOW THAT SYSTEM
PEELS OFF TO THE NE INTO ITS OWN WAA ZONE AND THE WRF HAS MORE OF
THE RIGHT IDEA. GIVEN ALL PREV DISCUSSED ANOTHER POINT OF FCST
UNCERTAINTY IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT EVEN THOUGH THE WRF TRACK MAY BE
CLOSEST TO WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS SOME RATHER DRY AIR MAY HANG ON
OVER WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA SEVERELY CUTTING DOWN ON RAIN CHANCES.
DESPITE SOME OF THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS THE CHANCE FOR FLOODING
PROBLEMS WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS LOW SINCE IT REMAINS DISCONNECTED
FROM THE DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE SHUNTED WELL OFFSHORE BY THE LAST
FROPA. ONCE THE FRONTAL INVERSION RETREATS WESTWARD BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL ALSO BECOME RATHER BREEZY. MOST
PLACES STUCK IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ON
SUN ALTHOUGH THE COOLER AIR SLIDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
COULD KEEP SOME LOCATIONS COOLER. MONDAY MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
DESPITE THE CONTINUED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN AS WARM AIR CONTINUES
TO ADVECT IN FROM THE EAST. MONDAYS TEMP FORECAST MAY EVEN HINGE ON
THE THERMAL STRUCTURE/BAROCLINICITY OF THE LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...GREAT LAKES TROUGH THAT ULTIMATELY LEADS TO
THE EXIT OF THE SHORT TERM STORM SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO A WEAK
CUTOFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
TERM. LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WILL BRING A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
MS/TN VALLEY SHUNTING THE SYSTEM...OR WHATS LEFT OF IT...SOUTHWARD.
IN THE END WEATHER LOCALLY MAY BE A BIT UNSETTLED THOUGH NO
PARTICULAR DAY SHOULD BE A WASH PER SE. ECMWF A LITTLE STRONGER BUT
ALSO FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM IMPLYING THAT DRY AIR COULD WRAP
INTO THE CAROLINAS AROUND ITS SOUTH SIDE BY LATE WED OR THEREABOUTS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY
JUST OFF THE COAST TODAY. ALL OF THE LATEST PROGS KEEP RAIN JUST
ALONG THE COAST OR OFFSHORE. SINCE THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF VALID
PERIOD. AS LONG AS RAIN STAYS MAINLY OFFSHORE TODAY FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AN EXPANDING AREA OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS NORTHEAST OF ILM WHICH MAY AFFECT THE ILM TERMINAL BY MID MORNING.
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND
WESTWARD...AFFECTING THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH WITH THIS SCENARIO. MVFR LEVEL CLOUDINESS
AND PRECIPITATION MAY BE MUCH LESS THAN ANTICIPATED. BUT WILL INDICATE
MVFR CEILINGS/VCSH IN COASTAL TAFS ATTM.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/TEMPO
IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES WITH 5 TO 7
FT SEAS...IN A NORTHEAST SWELL BETWEEN 6 AND 7 SECONDS...BEING
REPORTED ACROSS THE WATERS. GRADIENT REMAINS PINCHED...KEEPING
SPEEDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE INTO THE EVENING. LOW WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT WEST-SOUTHWEST TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH.
NORTHEAST COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS OFF THE BRUNSWICK COAST AND
SHELTERED AREAS OF FRYING PAN SHOALS LOWER THAN SURROUNDING AREAS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECLINES MORE THAN
USUAL DURING THE SHORT TERM AS SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST HAS A VERY UNCERTAIN FUTURE. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RETROGRADE
SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING AN INCREASED NE WIND.
CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS A RATHER PESSIMISTIC CONTINUATION OF THIS
TREND ALTHOUGH OTHER GUIDANCE WEAKENS THE SYSTEM CONSIDERABLY.
OTHER HIGH RES MODELS SINK THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD AND WOULD
SIMILARLY IMPLY SLIGHTLY MORE BENIGN CONDITIONS THAN CURRENT FCST.
BEST ESTIMATE AT THIS TIME IS THAT SYSTEM WILL STILL BE STRONG AND
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO WARRANT HEADLINES ON SUNDAY EVEN IF ONLY FOR
MARGINAL/6FT SEAS MAINLY OVER NRN ZONES. MANY REFINEMENTS OF THIS
FCST APPEAR LIKELY ESPECIALLY SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL BE BETTER
SAMPLED BY ROBS FROM CHS AND MHX WITH TIME. FCST SHOWS GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT ON MONDAY WITH TWO SEEMING POSSIBILITIES. ONE IS THAT
THE SYSTEM IS NO LONGER VERY CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE. THE OTHER IS
SHOWN BY THE WRF SOLUTION THAT BRINGS THE SYSTEM CLOSE ENOUGH FOR
LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS COMPARED TO THE GUSTY NE WINDS
CURRENTLY ALONG THE SYSTEMS WEST SIDE THAT SHOULD LAST INTO
SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...JUST SOME WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGHINESS EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH PESKY UPPER LOW MAY BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER OTHERWISE. A GENERAL SW FLOW NO HIGHER THAN 10 TO 15 KTS
APPEARS LIKELY WITH NO FLAGS/HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
000
FXUS62 KMHX 191326
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
926 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AS A
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 920 AM SAT...WILL LEAVE LOW POPS FOR SERN AREAS OF CWA FOR
THIS AFTN. NO SIG CHANGES TO NEAR TERM. STILL EXPECT HIGHS TO
REACH MID 70S INLAND TO AROUND 70 COAST WITH BRISK NE WINDS.
PREV DISC...PRECIP NOW NAM12 HAS BEST HANDLE ON PLACEMENT OF SURFACE
LOW THIS MORNING BEING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER THAN
OTHER MODELS. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND OFF THE
SC/NC COAST THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN AND
TO CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO EASTERN NC. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL HELP KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED. SKY WILL START TO FILL IN
AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE AS TEMPERATURES RISE. BREEZES WILL INCREASE WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE SURFACE LOW. INCREASED CLOUD
COVER SUPPORT LOWERING HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...BUT NOT BY AS MUCH
AS NAM. WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN
EASTERN 2/3 OF CWA...MID 70S AWAY FROM THE EFFECTS OF THE OVERCAST
SKIES. WILL CONTINUE BEACH HAZARD FOR HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND
HIGH SURF ALONG AREA BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 241 AM SAT...NAM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT.
UPPER PATTERN SUPPORTS A MORE OPEN...LESS DEEP LOW...SO WILL LEAN
MORE TOWARD ENSEMBLES SOLUTION FOR TONIGHT. THIS BRINGS THE SURFACE
LOW FURTHER NORTH AND RETROGRADES TOWARD THE COAST SLOWER THAN THE
NAM. HOWEVER THIS ALLOWS MORE ENERGY OVER THE COASTAL SECTIONS FOR
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIP ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. ENSEMBLE BLEND
OF TEMPERATURES HAS MID 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH MID 60S ALONG
THE COAST. STILL DONT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF AS MAJORITY OF
PRECIP WILL FALL OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...MDLS SHOW SIMILAR TRENDS OF STACKED LOW
PRESSURE DRIFTING W AND ONSHORE SUNDAY INTO MON...THEN SLOWLY
LIFTING NE OF REGION TUE AS NEXT SRT WAVE APPROACHES. DETAILS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN ON POSITION OF SFC LOW AND QPF...HOWEVER GENERAL TRENDS
WILL BE FOR INCREASING MOISTURE AND BETTER CVRG OF SHRA SUN INTO
MON. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHC SUN AND INLAND MON...LATER SHIFTS
MAY BE ABLE TO BUMP THESE UP TO LIKELY IN AREAS IF MDLS COME INTO
MORE AGREEMENT. AS MOISTURE INCREASES SUN AND MON WILL SEE SOME
WEAK INSTAB DEVELOP SO ADDED MENTION OF TSRA ALL BUT DEEP INLAND
AREAS SUNDAY AFTN AND ALL LOCATION MON. WILL CONT TO SEE SCT SHRA
AND FEW TSRA INTO TUE AS INIT SYSTEM LIFTS SLOWLY NE AND NEXT ONE
APPROACHES. MDLS AGAIN SHOW MID/UPR LOW DEVELOPING MID WEEK ACROSS
THE REGION...MOISTURE LOOKS A BIT LESS WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT WILL
MAINTAIN CHC POPS. THIS LOW WILL GRAD WEAKEN AND SHIFT E LATE IN
WEEK WITH GRAD DECREASE CHCS OF PRECIP BUT WL STILL HAVE AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHC. HIGHS WILL HOLD IN THE 70S SUNDAY THEN SHLD GRAD WARM
TO LOWER 80S INLAND REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 AM SAT...PATCHES OF MAINLY MVFR ST OVER SERN SECTIONS
DIMINISHING AND ADVECTING SW THIS MORNING. LIKELY WILL SEE VFR
CONDS MOST OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTN EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS OAJ WHERE
MVFR CIGS WILL BE PSBL.
PREV DISC...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TAFS WILL HAVE PERIODS
OF MVFR IN LOWER CIGS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
COAST... SPECIFICALLY AT OAJ.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE SUN AND MON AS STACKED
LOW DRIFTS ONSHORE...THIS WILL LEAD TO DECENT CVRG OF SHRA AND
POSS A FEW TSRA WITH PERIOD OF REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES. SYSTEM
SLOWLY LIFT NE OF REGION TUE HOWEVER WILL LIKELY HAVE ENOUGH LOW
LVL MOISTURE FOR POSS STRATUS EARLY IN MORN THEN SOME MVFR CIGS
LATER IN THE MORN. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL CUTOFF TO THE W OF REGION
WED AND THIS WILL AGAIN LEAD TO SCT CONVECTION AND PERIODS OF
REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 AM SAT...NO CHANGES TO MARINE FCST NE-NE WINDS SHUD PICK
UP TO 20-25 KT ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTN WITH SEAS IN THE
6-9 FT RANGE FOR THE NRN AND CNTRL WATERS AND 4-7 FT SRN WATERS.
PREV DISC...SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTION CONTINUE WITH THIS
RUN. NAM12 HAS INITIALIZED THE BEST TONIGHT WITH PLACEMENT OF
SURFACE LOW OFF THE NC/SC COAST...BUT DEEPENS IT TOO MUCH TONIGHT.
NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE 8 TO 10 FEET IN NORTHERN
WATERS WITH NORTHEAST FETCH. SEAS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 7 FEET IN
SOUTHERN WATERS. LOW WILL BECOME DOUBLE BARREL AS ANOTHER WAVE
DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHER WATERS LATER TODAY AND RETROGRADES TOWARDS
THE COAST TONIGHT. GRADIENT WILL START TO LOOSEN AS LOW APPROACHES
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS OVER THE SOUNDS TO DROP BELOW SCA
CRITERIA LATER TONIGHT...BUT THEY WILL STAY ABOVE SCA CRITERIA OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...SFC LOW EXPECTED TO REACH CST
SUNDAY...EXACT LOCATION STILL UNCERTAIN BUT LEANING TWRD GFS WITH
LOW NEAR CENTRAL CST SUNDAY. PLACEMENT OF LOW WILL OBVIOUSLY GREATLY
IMPACT WIND DIR HOWEVER WITH OW ALONG THE CST SPEEDS FOR THE MOST
PART SO REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS. LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE INTO TUE
WITH WIND DIR GRAD BECOMING MORE SW AT LESS THAN 15 KTS. SW FLOW
EXPECTED TO CONT INTO WED AS ANOTHER STACKED LOW DVLPS TO THE W.
SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE ALTER SUN AND SUN NIGHT WITH SC ENDING
FROM S TO N ON COASTAL WTRS. DESPITE RATHER LIGHT WINDS WAVEWATCH
CONTS TO SHOW 4 TO 5 FT SEAS OUTER WTRS THRU MID WEEK WITH
LINGERING SE SWELL.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ095-
103-104.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ130-135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG/JAC
SHORT TERM...CGG/JAC
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CGG/JAC/RF
MARINE...CGG/JAC/RF
000
FXUS62 KMHX 191130
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
729 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFF THE COAST TODAY INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 720 AM SAT...INIT LOW TO THE S HAS DRIFTED FURTHER S WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED THRU MORN. BASED ON 06Z RUNS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED
POPS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS WELL AS LOOKS LIKE BULK OF PRECIP
WILL REMAIN OFF THE CST.
PREV DISC...PRECIP NOW NAM12 HAS BEST HANDLE ON PLACEMENT OF SURFACE
LOW THIS MORNING BEING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER THAN
OTHER MODELS. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND OFF THE
SC/NC COAST THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN AND
TO CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO EASTERN NC. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL HELP KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED. SKY WILL START TO FILL IN
AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE AS TEMPERATURES RISE. BREEZES WILL INCREASE WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE SURFACE LOW. INCREASED CLOUD
COVER SUPPORT LOWERING HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...BUT NOT BY AS MUCH
AS NAM. WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN
EASTERN 2/3 OF CWA...MID 70S AWAY FROM THE EFFECTS OF THE OVERCAST
SKIES. WILL CONTINUE BEACH HAZARD FOR HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND
HIGH SURF ALONG AREA BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 241 AM SAT...NAM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT.
UPPER PATTERN SUPPORTS A MORE OPEN...LESS DEEP LOW...SO WILL LEAN
MORE TOWARD ENSEMBLES SOLUTION FOR TONIGHT. THIS BRINGS THE SURFACE
LOW FURTHER NORTH AND RETROGRADES TOWARD THE COAST SLOWER THAN THE
NAM. HOWEVER THIS ALLOWS MORE ENERGY OVER THE COASTAL SECTIONS FOR
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIP ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. ENSEMBLE BLEND
OF TEMPERATURES HAS MID 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH MID 60S ALONG
THE COAST. STILL DONT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF AS MAJORITY OF
PRECIP WILL FALL OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...MDLS SHOW SIMILAR TRENDS OF STACKED LOW
PRESSURE DRIFTING W AND ONSHORE SUNDAY INTO MON...THEN SLOWLY
LIFTING NE OF REGION TUE AS NEXT SRT WAVE APPROACHES. DETAILS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN ON POSITION OF SFC LOW AND QPF...HOWEVER GENERAL TRENDS
WILL BE FOR INCREASING MOISTURE AND BETTER CVRG OF SHRA SUN INTO
MON. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHC SUN AND INLAND MON...LATER SHIFTS
MAY BE ABLE TO BUMP THESE UP TO LIKELY IN AREAS IF MDLS COME INTO
MORE AGREEMENT. AS MOISTURE INCREASES SUN AND MON WILL SEE SOME
WEAK INSTAB DEVELOP SO ADDED MENTION OF TSRA ALL BUT DEEP INLAND
AREAS SUNDAY AFTN AND ALL LOCATION MON. WILL CONT TO SEE SCT SHRA
AND FEW TSRA INTO TUE AS INIT SYSTEM LIFTS SLOWLY NE AND NEXT ONE
APPROACHES. MDLS AGAIN SHOW MID/UPR LOW DEVELOPING MID WEEK ACROSS
THE REGION...MOISTURE LOOKS A BIT LESS WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT WILL
MAINTAIN CHC POPS. THIS LOW WILL GRAD WEAKEN AND SHIFT E LATE IN
WEEK WITH GRAD DECREASE CHCS OF PRECIP BUT WL STILL HAVE AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHC. HIGHS WILL HOLD IN THE 70S SUNDAY THEN SHLD GRAD WARM
TO LOWER 80S INLAND REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1236 AM SAT...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TAFS WILL
HAVE PERIODS OF MVFR IN LOWER CIGS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE COAST... SPECIFICALLY AT OAJ.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE SUN AND MON AS STACKED
LOW DRIFTS ONSHORE...THIS WILL LEAD TO DECENT CVRG OF SHRA AND
POSS A FEW TSRA WITH PERIOD OF REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES. SYSTEM
SLOWLY LIFT NE OF REGION TUE HOWEVER WILL LIKELY HAVE ENOUGH LOW
LVL MOISTURE FOR POSS STRATUS EARLY IN MORN THEN SOME MVFR CIGS
LATER IN THE MORN. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL CUTOFF TO THE W OF REGION
WED AND THIS WILL AGAIN LEAD TO SCT CONVECTION AND PERIODS OF
REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM SAT...WITH INIT LOW DRIFTING S HAVE SEEN WINDS DECREASE
OVER THE REGION THIS MORN. GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS COMING BACK LATER
TODAY AS ANOTHER LOW CONSOLIDATES OFF THE CST. LOWERED WINDS AND SEAS
JUST A BIT FOR TODAY.
PREV DISC...SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTION CONTINUE WITH THIS
RUN. NAM12 HAS INITIALIZED THE BEST TONIGHT WITH PLACEMENT OF
SURFACE LOW OFF THE NC/SC COAST...BUT DEEPENS IT TOO MUCH TONIGHT.
NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE 8 TO 10 FEET IN NORTHERN
WATERS WITH NORTHEAST FETCH. SEAS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 7 FEET IN
SOUTHERN WATERS. LOW WILL BECOME DOUBLE BARREL AS ANOTHER WAVE
DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHER WATERS LATER TODAY AND RETROGRADES TOWARDS
THE COAST TONIGHT. GRADIENT WILL START TO LOOSEN AS LOW APPROACHES
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS OVER THE SOUNDS TO DROP BELOW SCA
CRITERIA LATER TONIGHT...BUT THEY WILL STAY ABOVE SCA CRITERIA OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...SFC LOW EXPECTED TO REACH CST
SUNDAY...EXACT LOCATION STILL UNCERTAIN BUT LEANING TWRD GFS WITH
LOW NEAR CENTRAL CST SUNDAY. PLACEMENT OF LOW WILL OBVIOUSLY GREATLY
IMPACT WIND DIR HOWEVER WITH OW ALONG THE CST SPEEDS FOR THE MOST
PART SO REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS. LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE INTO TUE
WITH WIND DIR GRAD BECOMING MORE SW AT LESS THAN 15 KTS. SW FLOW
EXPECTED TO CONT INTO WED AS ANOTHER STACKED LOW DVLPS TO THE W.
SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE ALTER SUN AND SUN NIGHT WITH SC ENDING
FROM S TO N ON COASTAL WTRS. DESPITE RATHER LIGHT WINDS WAVEWATCH
CONTS TO SHOW 4 TO 5 FT SEAS OUTER WTRS THRU MID WEEK WITH
LINGERING SE SWELL.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ095-103-104.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ130-135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...RF/CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CGG/RF
MARINE...CGG/RF
000
FXUS62 KILM 191125
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
725 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE
CAROLINA COAST...BRINGING RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THEN STALL NEARBY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE WEATHER
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE HAS BROADENED ITS CIRCULATION
SINCE 07Z AND WAS ROUGHLY ABOUT 100 MILES SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE
CAPE FEAR AS OF 10Z. THE NAM MODEL INITIALIZED THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WELL AND WAS LARGELY USED IN THIS NEAR TERM FORECAST
PREDICTION. THE PRESSURE WAS ABOUT 1011 MB...SO STILL A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. THE COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE NW AND W
SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...SOME COLDER CLOUD TOPS WERE
DEVELOPING ON THE E SIDE. LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN AND CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A COLD
CORE AND THAT CHARACTERISTIC IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE IN THE NEAR
TERM WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING STACKED THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS.
THE NAM MODEL TAKES THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM AND BRINGS IT TO
WITHIN 60 MILES OF THE CAPE FEAR COAST SUNDAY. THE PRESSURE
IS LIKELY TO FLUCTUATE...BUT MAY DROP ANOTHER MILLIBAR OR SO...BUT
NO STRONG INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. INLAND PENETRATION OF RAIN
SHIELD IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF
DRY AIR TO THE W OF THIS SYSTEM AND ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
EVEN THE NAM IS PORTRAYING MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
THROUGH 12Z SUN. POPS TODAY WILL BE HELD TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW
CHANCE ALONG THE COAST. MEASURABLE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED W OF A HYW
TO EYF LINE. RAIN SHIELD SHOULD EXPAND W TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTS THAT MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL INCLUDE CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR THE CAPE FEAR REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT...WITH POPS
DROPPING QUICKLY AS YOU MOVE WESTWARD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
LARGELY A STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT...BUT DID ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE WATERS TO MOVE ON SHORE...AFFECTING THE CAPE
FEAR REGION TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HEAVIEST FOR COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA.
AMOUNTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT COULD BE AS HIGH AS ONE-QUARTER TO
ONE-HALF INCH E OF A HYW TO EYF LINE.
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...A N/NE WIND WILL
DRIVE DRY AND CHILLY AIR SOUTHWARD. COUPLE THIS WITH AN EXTENSIVE
MID TO HIGH CANOPY OF CLOUDS...AND IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO CLIMB OUT
OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S TODAY. CLOUDS SHOULD BE THINNEST W OF
INTERSTATE 95. DEWPOINTS WILL BE MORE THAN 20 DEG BELOW THOSE
RECORDED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CLOUDS SHOULD HANG ON
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...PERHAPS LOWER
60S ON THE COAST AS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE DRIFTS CLOSER.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THIS WILL
BRING GUSTY N/NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY TO THE CAPE FEAR COAST. WILL
INCLUDE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY THIS PERIOD...SMALL
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY OR MAY NOT ATTAIN HYBRID TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS WILL BE CENTRAL TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE WITH ONLY A GRADUAL RETROGRESSION
THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES
BEGINS TO KICK IT OUT. UNSETTLED WEATHER THUS ON TAP FOR MOST OF THE
SHORT TERM ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD END UP BEING CONFINED TO
THE COAST WHERE DIRECT MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARM ADVECTION WILL
COINCIDE. THE COOLER AIRMASS INLAND WILL SERVE AS AN OVERRUNNING
SURFACE HOWEVER AND WRF DOES SHOW SOME STRATIFORM RAINFALL BREAKING
OUT BY MIDDAY SUNDAY OVER WESTERN ZONES. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES BUT NAILING DOWN
WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF IS WARRANTED IS TRICKY THIS FAR OUT.
AT LEAST BY 00Z MONDAY PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEMS CIRCULATION WILL
START BEING SAMPLED BY RAOBS FROM CHS AND MHX WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE
FORECAST CERTAINTY. CURRENT FORECAST HEDGED SOME TOWARDS THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE WRF (WHICH INITIALIZED BEST WITH THE POSITION OF THE LOW)
BUT TRIMS POPS SLIGHTLY BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT IN DEFERENCE TO HPC
PREFERENCE OF OTHER GUIDANCE BEYOND ABOUT 12HRS. MANY MODELS OTHER
THAN THE WRF WEAKEN THE LOW OFF OF CAPE FEAR DUE TO INTERACTION FROM
A RETROGRESSION OF ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AROUND
70W/36N...WELL E OF VA. COULD JUST AS EASILY SEE HOW THAT SYSTEM
PEELS OFF TO THE NE INTO ITS OWN WAA ZONE AND THE WRF HAS MORE OF
THE RIGHT IDEA. GIVEN ALL PREV DISCUSSED ANOTHER POINT OF FCST
UNCERTAINTY IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT EVEN THOUGH THE WRF TRACK MAY BE
CLOSEST TO WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS SOME RATHER DRY AIR MAY HANG ON
OVER WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA SEVERELY CUTTING DOWN ON RAIN CHANCES.
DESPITE SOME OF THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS THE CHANCE FOR FLOODING
PROBLEMS WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS LOW SINCE IT REMAINS DISCONNECTED
FROM THE DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE SHUNTED WELL OFFSHORE BY THE LAST
FROPA. ONCE THE FRONTAL INVERSION RETREATS WESTWARD BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL ALSO BECOME RATHER BREEZY. MOST
PLACES STUCK IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ON
SUN ALTHOUGH THE COOLER AIR SLIDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
COULD KEEP SOME LOCATIONS COOLER. MONDAY MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
DESPITE THE CONTINUED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN AS WARM AIR CONTINUES
TO ADVECT IN FROM THE EAST. MONDAYS TEMP FORECAST MAY EVEN HINGE ON
THE THERMAL STRUCTURE/BAROCLINICITY OF THE LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...GREAT LAKES TROUGH THAT ULTIMATELY LEADS TO
THE EXIT OF THE SHORT TERM STORM SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO A WEAK
CUTOFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
TERM. LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WILL BRING A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
MS/TN VALLEY SHUNTING THE SYSTEM...OR WHATS LEFT OF IT...SOUTHWARD.
IN THE END WEATHER LOCALLY MAY BE A BIT UNSETTLED THOUGH NO
PARTICULAR DAY SHOULD BE A WASH PER SE. ECMWF A LITTLE STRONGER BUT
ALSO FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM IMPLYING THAT DRY AIR COULD WRAP
INTO THE CAROLINAS AROUND ITS SOUTH SIDE BY LATE WED OR THEREABOUTS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY
JUST OFF THE COAST TODAY. ALL OF THE LATEST PROGS KEEP RAIN JUST
ALONG THE COAST OR OFFSHORE. SINCE THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
...NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF VALID
PERIOD. AS LONG AS RAIN STAYS MAINLY OFFSHORE TODAY FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AN EXPANDING AREA OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS NORTHEAST OF ILM WHICH MAY AFFECT THE ILM TERMINAL BY MID MORNING.
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND
WESTWARD...AFFECTING THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH WITH THIS SCENARIO. MVFR LEVEL CLOUDINESS
AND PRECIPITATION MAY BE MUCH LESS THAN ANTICIPATED. BUT WILL INDICATE
MVFR CEILINGS/VCSH IN COASTAL TAFS ATTM.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/TEMPO
IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM SATURDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. A
NEARLY STALLED TO SLOWLY DRIFTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE... CURRENTLY
ABOUT 100 MILES SE OF CAPE FEAR WILL MAKE FOR A HAZARDOUS MARINE
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A PERSISTENT N/NNE SUSTAINED WIND...
UP TO 20 TO 25 KT...WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 5 TO 9 FT RANGE. SEAS WILL
BE LOWER ACROSS LONG BAY DUE TO THE OFFSHORE TRAJECTORIES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECLINES MORE THAN USUAL
DURING THE SHORT TERM AS SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
HAS A VERY UNCERTAIN FUTURE. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RETROGRADE SLOWLY
WESTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING AN INCREASED NE WIND. CURRENT
FORECAST SHOWS A RATHER PESSIMISTIC CONTINUATION OF THIS TREND
ALTHOUGH OTHER GUIDANCE WEAKENS THE SYSTEM CONSIDERABLY. OTHER HIGH
RES MODELS SINK THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD AND WOULD SIMILARLY IMPLY
SLIGHTLY MORE BENIGN CONDITIONS THAN CURRENT FCST. BEST ESTIMATE AT
THIS TIME IS THAT SYSTEM WILL STILL BE STRONG AND PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO
WARRANT HEADLINES ON SUNDAY EVEN IF ONLY FOR MARGINAL/6FT SEAS
MAINLY OVER NRN ZONES. MANY REFINEMENTS OF THIS FCST APPEAR LIKELY
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL BE BETTER SAMPLED BY ROBS FROM CHS
AND MHX WITH TIME. FCST SHOWS GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON MONDAY WITH TWO
SEEMING POSSIBILITIES. ONE IS THAT THE SYSTEM IS NO LONGER VERY
CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE. THE OTHER IS SHOWN BY THE WRF SOLUTION THAT
BRINGS THE SYSTEM CLOSE ENOUGH FOR LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS
COMPARED TO THE GUSTY NE WINDS CURRENTLY ALONG THE SYSTEMS WEST SIDE
THAT SHOULD LAST INTO SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...JUST SOME WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGHINESS EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH PESKY UPPER LOW MAY BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER OTHERWISE. A GENERAL SW FLOW NO HIGHER THAN 10 TO 15 KTS
APPEARS LIKELY WITH NO FLAGS/HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
000
FXUS62 KRAH 191108
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
710 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLS OUT AND
DRIFTS TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS BUILT SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND AND
SETTLED ACROSS CENTRAL NC...WHILE A SURFACE LOW TRIES TO ORGANIZE
OFFSHORE OF WILMINGTON UNDER A PERSISTENT WEAK UPPER LOW.
CONVECTION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY FOCUSED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW
CENTER...ANALYZED AT 1011MB BY MSAS...AND IS NO THREAT TO CENTRAL
NC THIS MORNING.
FOR TODAY...WIDESPREAD CIRRUS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING
MAY CLEAR A BIT IN THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CIRRUS
ADVECTS OFF TO THE NORTHWEST AND DRIER AIR SURGES IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS OVER NC VARIES TREMENDOUSLY FROM KGSO TO
KMHX WITH 00Z RAOBS SHOWING PW VALUES OF 0.38 AND 1.61...
RESPECTIVELY. THIS MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY TIGHT...BUT
OVER CENTRAL NC THE AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY AS THE UPSTREAM
KWAL RAOB SHOW LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THROUGH 400MB. THUS...THE
FORECAST WILL BE DRY FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS ON THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE IN THE MID 70S WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW THE UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER.. THERE IS SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND SREF MEMBERS OF A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING EAST OF
THE VA TIDEWATER REGION AS VORTICITY STREAMING NORTH FROM THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS WRAPPED INTO THE UPPER LOW. THESE MODELS SHOW
THIS SURFACE LOW BECOMING THE PRIMARY LOW AND RETROGRADING INLAND
OVER THE OBX ON SUNDAY. THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND CANADIAN MODEL ARE
SOMEWHAT OF OUTLIERS AS THEY SHOW THE CURRENT LOW OFF THE WILMINGTON
COAST REMAINING THE PRIMARY LOW AND MOVING ONSHORE NEAR WILMINGTON.
WHILE THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING WITH THE
CIRCULATION OFFSHORE CANT BE IGNORED AS POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING THE
SURFACE LOW TOWARD A NAM-LIKE SOLUTION...WE WILL FAVOR THE SREF
SOLUTION WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS. POPS WILL
INCREASE TO CHANCE ON THE EAST ON SUNDAY...MAINLY EAST OF US HWY 1
AND HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AS THAT IS WHERE MODELS
SHOW MOISTURE FLUX RAMPING UP THE MOST BY SUNDAY EVENING. HIGHS
SHOULD MOSTLY BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A SHARPER GRADIENT IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND AND
MORE SUN TO THE WEST. WE HAVE GONE CLOSEST TO THE MAV GUIDANCE WITH
LOWER 80S WEST AND MID 70S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM SATURDAY...
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT: THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL AGREE ON BRINGING THE MID
LEVEL LOW ONSHORE OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... WITH THE SURFACE LOW
JUST NORTHEAST OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE ECMWF IS THE
FARTHEST NORTH OVER NE NC... WHILE THE NAM IS THE MOST SOUTHERLY
NEAR MYR. THE SREF MEAN IS A GOOD MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD SOLUTION...
VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS AND JUST SOUTH OF THE ECMWF... WHICH ITSELF
HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT SINCE ITS MIDWEEK RUNS IN BRINGING A
BAGGY MID LEVEL LOW INLAND. WHILE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE
RELATIVELY MINOR OVERALL... THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW RESULTS
IN SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REGARDING SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE
CAROLINAS. THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS DEPICT STEADY MOISTENING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOWEST 3 KM AND PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN CWA. THE
MODEL 6-HOURLY QPF VALUES SUNDAY NIGHT APPEAR OVERDONE IN AMOUNTS...
AS THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP AREAWIDE HOLD AT
OR UNDER 50 PERCENT... AND THE GFS SHOWS RATHER LIMITED UPGLIDE
OUTSIDE OF THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA (AND EVEN HERE IT IS CONFINED TO
THE 295K-300K LAYER). BUT THE DEGREE OF MOISTENING AND LIFT IN THE
NE CWA DOES SUPPORT DECENT COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE HERE
OVERNIGHT. WILL ADJUST POPS A BIT TO RANGE FROM JUST 10-20% IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA TO 40-50% IN THE NORTHEAST INCLUDING ROANOKE RAPIDS
AND ROCKY MOUNT. UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES... EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE
FROM 58 IN THE WEST TO 63 NORTHEAST AS PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
DRIVES UP DEW POINTS.
FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL LOW STEADILY LOSES ITS
DEFINITION AND BECOMES POORLY DEFINED MONDAY AS IT BECOMES NEARLY
STALLED OVER ERN NC. AS THE VORTEX NOW OVER ALBERTA MOVES EAST TO
HUDSON BAY BY MONDAY... A WAVE NOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DROPS
INTO THE TROUGH BASE AND ALSO HEADS EASTWARD WHILE MERGING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. ACCORDING TO THE
REMARKABLY CONSISTENT ECMWF... IT IS THIS RESULTANT WAVE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER WI/MI/IL/IN/KY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND HELP
PULL THE NC MID LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF THE
AREA... AS A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE APPALACHIANS
FROM THE NW. THE ECMWF HAS A RATHER WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND DEEPENING OH VALLEY
WAVE... AND AS SUCH HAS WEAK TO NO FORCING FOR ASCENT AND A RELATIVE
LULL IN PRECIP OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SO MUCH
MODEL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THESE DETAILS... AND WITH THE GFS STILL
GENERATING COPIOUS CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON ... AM RELUCTANT TO REMOVE ALL POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD (ALTHOUGH THE GFS`S 1400-1800 J/KG OF MLCAPE MONDAY AFTERNOON
APPEARS ABNORMALLY HIGH AND MAY BE BASED ON A TOO-WARM NEAR-SURFACE
LAYER). BUT WILL ATTEMPT TO FOCUS THE HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EAST... WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE ACCOMPANYING STEEPENING (YET STILL MODEST NEAR 6 C/KM) MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PLENTIFUL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. THE SREF
APPEARS TO SUPPORT A WETTER GFS-ISH SOLUTION WITH MEASURABLE PRECIP
PROBABILITIES OF 70-90% OVER THE EASTERN CWA ON MONDAY. HIGHS 75-80
WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN. EXPECT WARM LOWS OF 60-64 WITH
CONVECTIVE-DEBRIS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND A HIGH PROBABILITY OF
FOG/STRATUS. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...
FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH BRING THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS TO THE APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY... ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF BECOMES A
BIT STRONGER DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW WITHIN THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
THE STRENGTHENING AND INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT SOUTH/SW LOW LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT YIELDS HIGH COVERAGE OF PREFRONTAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL NC ON TUESDAY... AND BASED ON GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT WITH THIS... WILL BUMP UP POPS A BIT ON TUESDAY. AS THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST INTO WRN NC/VA ON WEDNESDAY... THE
GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD ACCORDINGLY SHIFT INTO EASTERN
NC. THE GFS DOES DEVELOP ITS OWN WEAK MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER VA
BY THIS TIME... LEADING TO CONTINUED STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY.
AS THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH STALL OUT THIS LOW OVER NC/VA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT... EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TO ALSO LINGER INTO THE
NIGHT. WITH AN ATYPICALLY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE OF THICKNESSES... WILL
HOLD ONTO ABOVE NORMAL LOWS AND NEAR NORMAL HIGHS.
FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY: THE WET PATTERN WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS APPEARS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE
WEEK ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF... WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVING VERY
LITTLE. THE ECMWF`S STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING
THROUGH CENTRAL NC THURSDAY EVENTUALLY WEAKENS IN FAVOR OF A
DEEPENING ONSHORE-FLOW... INDICATIVE OF POSSIBLE NUMEROUS
TROPICAL-LIKE SHOWERS. WILL RETAIN GOOD CHANCE POPS FOCUSED ON (BUT
NOT LIMITED TO) EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S AND HIGHS CLOSE TO 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 710 AM SATURDAY...
HIGH CLOUDS ARE ABUNDANT OVER CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. STRATUS HAS
REMAINED CONFINED TO THE COAST AS DRY AIR COTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WIND THAT MAY APPROACH
10KT IN THE EAST. AS THE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE SLOWLY BEGINS TO
STRENGTHEN TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SURGE FURTHER
WESTWARD. BASED ON POOR AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS...THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN LOW CEILINGS REACHING KFAY AND KRWI BY 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS WILL BE
INCREASING SUNDAY MORNING.
LOOKING AHEAD:
THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS SUNDAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS WESTWARD ONSHORE SOMEWHERE OVER
NC/VA. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE THE LOW
WILL TRACK AND EXACTLY WHEN POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE WORSE OVER A MORE
PROLONGED PERIOD OVER EASTERN NC SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
ON TUESDAY...WITH CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...SMITH
000
FXUS62 KILM 191034
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
635 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE
CAROLINA COAST...BRINGING RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THEN STALL NEARBY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE WEATHER
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE HAS BROADENED ITS CIRCULATION
SINCE 07Z AND WAS ROUGHLY ABOUT 100 MILES SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE
CAPE FEAR AS OF 10Z. THE NAM MODEL INITIALIZED THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WELL AND WAS LARGELY USED IN THIS NEAR TERM FORECAST
PREDICTION. THE PRESSURE WAS ABOUT 1011 MB...SO STILL A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. THE COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE NW AND W
SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...SOME COLDER CLOUD TOPS WERE
DEVELOPING ON THE E SIDE. LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN AND CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A COLD
CORE AND THAT CHARACTERISTIC IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE IN THE NEAR
TERM WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING STACKED THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS.
THE NAM MODEL TAKES THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM AND BRINGS IT TO
WITHIN 60 MILES OF THE CAPE FEAR COAST SUNDAY. THE PRESSURE
IS LIKELY TO FLUCTUATE...BUT MAY DROP ANOTHER MILLIBAR OR SO...BUT
NO STRONG INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. INLAND PENETRATION OF RAIN
SHIELD IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF
DRY AIR TO THE W OF THIS SYSTEM AND ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
EVEN THE NAM IS PORTRAYING MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
THROUGH 12Z SUN. POPS TODAY WILL BE HELD TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW
CHANCE ALONG THE COAST. MEASURABLE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED W OF A HYW
TO EYF LINE. RAIN SHIELD SHOULD EXPAND W TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTS THAT MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL INCLUDE CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR THE CAPE FEAR REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT...WITH POPS
DROPPING QUICKLY AS YOU MOVE WESTWARD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
LARGELY A STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT...BUT DID ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE WATERS TO MOVE ON SHORE...AFFECTING THE CAPE
FEAR REGION TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HEAVIEST FOR COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA.
AMOUNTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT COULD BE AS HIGH AS ONE-QUARTER TO
ONE-HALF INCH E OF A HYW TO EYF LINE.
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...A N/NE WIND WILL
DRIVE DRY AND CHILLY AIR SOUTHWARD. COUPLE THIS WITH AN EXTENSIVE
MID TO HIGH CANOPY OF CLOUDS...AND IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO CLIMB OUT
OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S TODAY. CLOUDS SHOULD BE THINNEST W OF
INTERSTATE 95. DEWPOINTS WILL BE MORE THAN 20 DEG BELOW THOSE
RECORDED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CLOUDS SHOULD HANG ON
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...PERHAPS LOWER
60S ON THE COAST AS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE DRIFTS CLOSER.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THIS WILL
BRING GUSTY N/NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY TO THE CAPE FEAR COAST. WILL
INCLUDE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY THIS PERIOD...SMALL
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY OR MAY NOT ATTAIN HYBRID TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS WILL BE CENTRAL TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE WITH ONLY A GRADUAL RETROGRESSION
THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES
BEGINS TO KICK IT OUT. UNSETTLED WEATHER THUS ON TAP FOR MOST OF THE
SHORT TERM ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD END UP BEING CONFINED TO
THE COAST WHERE DIRECT MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARM ADVECTION WILL
COINCIDE. THE COOLER AIRMASS INLAND WILL SERVE AS AN OVERRUNNING
SURFACE HOWEVER AND WRF DOES SHOW SOME STRATIFORM RAINFALL BREAKING
OUT BY MIDDAY SUNDAY OVER WESTERN ZONES. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES BUT NAILING DOWN
WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF IS WARRANTED IS TRICKY THIS FAR OUT.
AT LEAST BY 00Z MONDAY PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEMS CIRCULATION WILL
START BEING SAMPLED BY RAOBS FROM CHS AND MHX WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE
FORECAST CERTAINTY. CURRENT FORECAST HEDGED SOME TOWARDS THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE WRF (WHICH INITIALIZED BEST WITH THE POSITION OF THE LOW)
BUT TRIMS POPS SLIGHTLY BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT IN DEFERENCE TO HPC
PREFERENCE OF OTHER GUIDANCE BEYOND ABOUT 12HRS. MANY MODELS OTHER
THAN THE WRF WEAKEN THE LOW OFF OF CAPE FEAR DUE TO INTERACTION FROM
A RETROGRESSION OF ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AROUND
70W/36N...WELL E OF VA. COULD JUST AS EASILY SEE HOW THAT SYSTEM
PEELS OFF TO THE NE INTO ITS OWN WAA ZONE AND THE WRF HAS MORE OF
THE RIGHT IDEA. GIVEN ALL PREV DISCUSSED ANOTHER POINT OF FCST
UNCERTAINTY IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT EVEN THOUGH THE WRF TRACK MAY BE
CLOSEST TO WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS SOME RATHER DRY AIR MAY HANG ON
OVER WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA SEVERELY CUTTING DOWN ON RAIN CHANCES.
DESPITE SOME OF THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS THE CHANCE FOR FLOODING
PROBLEMS WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS LOW SINCE IT REMAINS DISCONNECTED
FROM THE DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE SHUNTED WELL OFFSHORE BY THE LAST
FROPA. ONCE THE FRONTAL INVERSION RETREATS WESTWARD BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL ALSO BECOME RATHER BREEZY. MOST
PLACES STUCK IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ON
SUN ALTHOUGH THE COOLER AIR SLIDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
COULD KEEP SOME LOCATIONS COOLER. MONDAY MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
DESPITE THE CONTINUED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN AS WARM AIR CONTINUES
TO ADVECT IN FROM THE EAST. MONDAYS TEMP FORECAST MAY EVEN HINGE ON
THE THERMAL STRUCTURE/BAROCLINICITY OF THE LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...GREAT LAKES TROUGH THAT ULTIMATELY LEADS TO
THE EXIT OF THE SHORT TERM STORM SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO A WEAK
CUTOFF OVER THE MIDATLANTIC FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
TERM. LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WILL BRING A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
MS/TN VALLEY SHUNTING THE SYSTEM...OR WHATS LEFT OF IT...SOUTHWARD.
IN THE END WEATHER LOCALLY MAY BE A BIT UNSETTLED THOUGH NO
PARTICULAR DAY SHOULD BE A WASH PER SE. ECMWF A LITTLE STRONGER BUT
ALSO FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM IMPLYING THAT DRY AIR COULD WRAP
INTO THE CAROLINAS AROUND ITS SOUTH SIDE BY LATE WED OR THEREABOUTS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH VALID PERIOD...WITH EXCEPTION OF
POTENTIAL FOR LOW MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING AT KILM/KMYR/
KCRE.
A STALLED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE...WITH WIND GUSTS
NEAR 20 KT FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS. THE INLAND TERMINALS WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS TENDING TO THIN THROUGH THE DAY.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...BUT OVERALL
EXPECT SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TO LINGER AS LOW PRESSURE STAYS
JUST OFFSHORE. AFTER SUNSET...GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE ALLOWING FOR
NORTHEAST FLOW AOB 10 KTS TO PREVAIL.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING STRATUS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY...MOSTLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM SATURDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. A
NEARLY STALLED TO SLOWLY DRIFTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE... CURRENTLY
ABOUT 100 MILES SE OF CAPE FEAR WILL MAKE FOR A HAZARDOUS MARINE
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A PERSISTENT N/NNE SUSTAINED WIND...
UP TO 20 TO 25 KT...WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 5 TO 9 FT RANGE. SEAS WILL
BE LOWER ACROSS LONG BAY DUE TO THE OFFSHORE TRAJECTORIES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECLINES MORE THAN USUAL
DURING THE SHORT TERM AS SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
HAS A VERY UNCERTAIN FUTURE. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RETROGRADE SLOWLY
WESTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING AN INCREASED NE WIND. CURRENT
FORECAST SHOWS A RATHER PESSIMISTIC CONTINUATION OF THIS TREND
ALTHOUGH OTHER GUIDANCE WEAKENS THE SYSTEM CONSIDERABLY. OTHER HIGH
RES MODELS SINK THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD AND WOULD SIMILARLY IMPLY
SLIGHTLY MORE BENIGN CONDITIONS THAN CURRENT FCST. BEST ESTIMATE AT
THIS TIME IS THAT SYSTEM WILL STILL BE STRONG AND PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO
WARRANT HEADLINES ON SUNDAY EVEN IF ONLY FOR MARGINAL/6FT SEAS
MAINLY OVER NRN ZONES. MANY REFINEMENTS OF THIS FCST APPEAR LIKELY
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL BE BETTER SAMPLED BY ROBS FROM CHS
AND MHX WITH TIME. FCST SHOWS GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON MONDAY WITH TWO
SEEMING POSSIBILITIES. ONE IS THAT THE SYSTEM IS NO LONGER VERY
CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE. THE OTHER IS SHOWN BY THE WRF SOLUTION THAT
BRINGS THE SYSTEM CLOSE ENOUGH FOR LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS
COMPARED TO THE GUSTY NE WINDS CURRENTLY ALONG THE SYSTEMS WEST SIDE
THAT SHOULD LAST INTO SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...JUST SOME WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGHINESS EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH PESKY UPPER LOW MAY BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER OTHERWISE. A GENERAL SW FLOW NO HIGHER THAN 10 TO 15 KTS
APPEARS LIKELY WITH NO FLAGS/HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RJD/SGL
000
FXUS62 KILM 190745
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
345 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
STALLED LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE COAST...BRINGING
RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA
WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED ABOUT 85 MILES SE OF
THE MOUTH OF THE CAPE FEAR AS OF 07Z. THE NAM MODEL INITIALIZED THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL AND WAS LARGELY USED IN THIS NEAR TERM
FORECAST PREDICTION. THE PRESSURE HAS DROPPED SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DOWN TO 1011 MB. THE COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO
THE NW AND W SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...SOME COLDER CLOUD
TOPS WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ON THE SE AND E SIDE AS OF 05Z.
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN FEW AND FAR BETWEEN AND CONFINED TO THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A COLD CORE AND THAT CHARACTERISTIC
IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE IN THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
COULD BEGIN TO TAKE ON SOME WARM CORE CHARACTERISTICS SHOULD IT SIT
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE NAM MODEL TAKES THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM AND BRINGS IT TO
WITHIN 60 MILES OF THE CAPE FEAR COAST SUNDAY MORNING. THE PRESSURE
IS LIKELY TO FLUCTUATE...BUT MAY DROP ANOTHER MILLIBAR OR SO...BUT
NO STRONG INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. INLAND PENETRATION OF RAIN
SHIELD IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF
DRY AIR. EVEN THE NAM IS PORTRAYING MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE THROUGH 12Z SUN. WE HAVE DECIDED TO GO FOR A WETTER
SCENARIO BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE CAPE FEAR REGION WITH POPS DROPPING OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AS YOU
MOVE W. THERE MAY BE NO MEASURABLE RAIN ALONG AND W OF INTERSTATE 95
THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN SHIELD MAY EXPAND W TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTS THAT MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY
A STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT...BUT DID ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE WATERS TO MOVE ON SHORE...AFFECTING THE CAPE FEAR REGION
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HEAVIEST FOR COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA.
AMOUNTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT COULD BE AS HIGH AS 1/4 TO 3/4 OF AN
INCH E OF A HYW TO EYF LINE.
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...A N/NE WIND WILL
DRIVE CHILLY AIR SOUTHWARD. THIS AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO CLIMB OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S TODAY. CLOUDS
SHOULD BE THINNEST W OF INTERSTATE 95. DEWPOINTS WILL BE MORE THAN
20 DEG BELOW WHAT THEY HAD BEEN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
CLOUDS SHOULD HANG ON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 50S...PERHAPS LOWER 60S ON THE COAST AS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE DRIFTS CLOSER.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THIS WILL
BRING GUSTY N/NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY TO THE CAPE FEAR COAST. WILL
INCLUDE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY THIS PERIOD...SMALL
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY OR MAY NOT ATTAIN HYBRID TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS WILL BE CENTRAL TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE WITH ONLY A GRADUAL RETROGRESSION
THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES
BEGINS TO KICK IT OUT. UNSETTLED WEATHER THUS ON TAP FOR MOST OF THE
SHORT TERM ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD END UP BEING CONFINED TO
THE COAST WHERE DIRECT MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARM ADVECTION WILL
COINCIDE. THE COOLER AIRMASS INLAND WILL SERVE AS AN OVERRUNNING
SURFACE HOWEVER AND WRF DOES SHOW SOME STRATIFORM RAINFALL BREAKING
OUT BY MIDDAY SUNDAY OVER WESTERN ZONES. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES BUT NAILING DOWN
WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF IS WARRANTED IS TRICKY THIS FAR OUT.
AT LEAST BY 00Z MONDAY PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEMS CIRCULATION WILL
START BEING SAMPLED BY RAOBS FROM CHS AND MHX WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE
FORECAST CERTAINTY. CURRENT FORECAST HEDGED SOME TOWARDS THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE WRF (WHICH INITIALIZED BEST WITH THE POSITION OF THE LOW)
BUT TRIMS POPS SLIGHTLY BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT IN DEFERENCE TO HPC
PREFERENCE OF OTHER GUIDANCE BEYOND ABOUT 12HRS. MANY MODELS OTHER
THAN THE WRF WEAKEN THE LOW OFF OF CAPE FEAR DUE TO INTERACTION FROM
A RETROGRESSION OF ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AROUND
70W/36N...WELL E OF VA. COULD JUST AS EASILY SEE HOW THAT SYSTEM
PEELS OFF TO THE NE INTO ITS OWN WAA ZONE AND THE WRF HAS MORE OF
THE RIGHT IDEA. GIVEN ALL PREV DISCUSSED ANOTHER POINT OF FCST
UNCERTAINTY IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT EVEN THOUGH THE WRF TRACK MAY BE
CLOSEST TO WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS SOME RATHER DRY AIR MAY HANG ON
OVER WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA SEVERELY CUTTING DOWN ON RAIN CHANCES.
DESPITE SOME OF THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS THE CHANCE FOR FLOODING
PROBLEMS WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS LOW SINCE IT REMAINS DISCONNECTED
FROM THE DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE SHUNTED WELL OFFSHORE BY THE LAST
FROPA. ONCE THE FRONTAL INVERSION RETREATS WESTWARD BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL ALSO BECOME RATHER BREEZY. MOST
PLACES STUCK IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ON
SUN ALTHOUGH THE COOLER AIR SLIDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
COULD KEEP SOME LOCATIONS COOLER. MONDAY MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
DESPITE THE CONTINUED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN AS WARM AIR CONTINUES
TO ADVECT IN FROM THE EAST. MONDAYS TEMP FORECAST MAY EVEN HINGE ON
THE THERMAL STRUCTURE/BAROCLINICITY OF THE LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...GREAT LAKES TROUGH THAT ULTIMATELY LEADS TO
THE EXIT OF THE SHORT TERM STORM SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO A WEAK
CUTOFF OVER THE MIDATLANTIC FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
TERM. LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WILL BRING A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
MS/TN VALLEY SHUNTING THE SYSTEM...OR WHATS LEFT OF IT...SOUTHWARD.
IN THE END WEATHER LOCALLY MAY BE A BIT UNSETTLED THOUGH NO
PARTICULAR DAY SHOULD BE A WASH PER SE. ECMWF A LITTLE STRONGER BUT
ALSO FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM IMPLYING THAT DRY AIR COULD WRAP
INTO THE CAROLINAS AROUND ITS SOUTH SIDE BY LATE WED OR THEREABOUTS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH VALID PERIOD...WITH EXCEPTION OF
POTENTIAL FOR LOW MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING AT KILM/KMYR/
KCRE.
A STALLED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE...WITH WIND GUSTS
NEAR 20 KT FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS. THE INLAND TERMINALS WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS TENDING TO THIN THROUGH THE DAY.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...BUT OVERALL
EXPECT SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TO LINGER AS LOW PRESSURE STAYS
JUST OFFSHORE. AFTER SUNSET...GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE ALLOWING FOR
NORTHEAST FLOW AOB 10 KTS TO PREVAIL.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING STRATUS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY...MOSTLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
A NEARLY STALLED TO SLOWLY WESTWARD DRIFTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...
CURRENTLY ABOUT 85 MILES SE OF CAPE FEAR WILL MAKE FOR A HAZARDOUS
MARINE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A PERSISTENT N/NNE WIND UP TO
20 TO 25 KT WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 5 TO 9 FT RANGE. SEAS WILL BE
LOWER ACROSS LONG BAY DUE TO THE OFFSHORE TRAJECTORIES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECLINES MORE THAN USUAL
DURING THE SHORT TERM AS SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
HAS A VERY UNCERTAIN FUTURE. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RETROGRADE SLOWLY
WESTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING AN INCREASED NE WIND. CURRENT
FORECAST SHOWS A RATHER PESSIMISTIC CONTINUATION OF THIS TREND
ALTHOUGH OTHER GUIDANCE WEAKENS THE SYSTEM CONSIDERABLY. OTHER HIGH
RES MODELS SINK THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD AND WOULD SIMILARLY IMPLY
SLIGHTLY MORE BENIGN CONDITIONS THAN CURRENT FCST. BEST ESTIMATE AT
THIS TIME IS THAT SYSTEM WILL STILL BE STRONG AND PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO
WARRANT HEADLINES ON SUNDAY EVEN IF ONLY FOR MARGINAL/6FT SEAS
MAINLY OVER NRN ZONES. MANY REFINEMENTS OF THIS FCST APPEAR LIKELY
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL BE BETTER SAMPLED BY ROBS FROM CHS
AND MHX WITH TIME. FCST SHOWS GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON MONDAY WITH TWO
SEEMING POSSIBILITIES. ONE IS THAT THE SYSTEM IS NO LONGER VERY
CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE. THE OTHER IS SHOWN BY THE WRF SOLUTION THAT
BRINGS THE SYSTEM CLOSE ENOUGH FOR LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS
COMPARED TO THE GUSTY NE WINDS CURRENTLY ALONG THE SYSTEMS WEST SIDE
THAT SHOULD LAST INTO SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...JUST SOME WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGHINESS EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH PESKY UPPER LOW MAY BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER OTHERWISE. A GENERAL SW FLOW NO HIGHER THAN 10 TO 15 KTS
APPEARS LIKELY WITH NO FLAGS/HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RJD/SGL
000
FXUS62 KILM 190721
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
315 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
STALLED LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE COAST...BRINGING
RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA
WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED ABOUT 85 MILES SE OF
THE MOUTH OF THE CAPE FEAR AS OF 07Z. THE NAM MODEL INITIALIZED THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL AND WAS LARGELY USED IN THIS NEAR TERM
FORECAST PREDICTION. THE PRESSURE HAS DROPPED SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DOWN TO 1011 MB. THE COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO
THE NW AND W SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...SOME COLDER CLOUD
TOPS WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ON THE SE AND E SIDE AS OF 05Z.
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN FEW AND FAR BETWEEN AND CONFINED TO THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A COLD CORE AND THAT CHARACTERISTIC
IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE IN THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
COULD BEGIN TO TAKE ON SOME WARM CORE CHARACTERISTICS SHOULD IT SIT
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE NAM MODEL TAKES THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM AND BRINGS IT TO
WITHIN 60 MILES OF THE CAPE FEAR COAST SUNDAY MORNING. THE PRESSURE
IS LIKELY TO FLUCTUATE...BUT MAY DROP ANOTHER MILLIBAR OR SO...BUT
NO STRONG INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. INLAND PENETRATION OF RAIN
SHIELD IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF
DRY AIR. EVEN THE NAM IS PORTRAYING MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE THROUGH 12Z SUN. WE HAVE DECIDED TO GO FOR A WETTER
SCENARIO BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE CAPE FEAR REGION WITH POPS DROPPING OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AS YOU
MOVE W. THERE MAY BE NO MEASURABLE RAIN ALONG AND W OF INTERSTATE 95
THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN SHIELD MAY EXPAND W TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTS THAT MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY
A STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT...BUT DID ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE WATERS TO MOVE ON SHORE...AFFECTING THE CAPE FEAR REGION
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HEAVIEST FOR COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA.
AMOUNTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT COULD BE AS HIGH AS 1/4 TO 3/4 OF AN
INCH E OF A HYW TO EYF LINE.
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...A N/NE WIND WILL
DRIVE CHILLY AIR SOUTHWARD. THIS AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO CLIMB OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S TODAY. CLOUDS
SHOULD BE THINNEST W OF INTERSTATE 95. DEWPOINTS WILL BE MORE THAN
20 DEG BELOW WHAT THEY HAD BEEN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
CLOUDS SHOULD HANG ON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 50S...PERHAPS LOWER 60S ON THE COAST AS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE DRIFTS CLOSER.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THIS WILL
BRING GUSTY N/NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY TO THE CAPE FEAR COAST. WILL
INCLUDE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY THIS PERIOD...SMALL
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY OR MAY NOT ATTAIN HYBRID TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS WILL BE CENTRAL TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE WITH ONLY A GRADUAL RETROGRESSION
THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES
BEGINS TO KICK IT OUT. UNSETTLED WEATHER THUS ON TAP FOR MOST OF THE
SHORT TERM ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD END UP BEING CONFINED TO
THE COAST WHERE DIRECT MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARM ADVECTION WILL
COINCIDE. THE COOLER AIRMASS INLAND WILL SERVE AS AN OVERRUNNING
SURFACE HOWEVER AND WRF DOES SHOW SOME STRATIFORM RAINFALL BREAKING
OUT BY MIDDAY SUNDAY OVER WESTERN ZONES. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES BUT NAILING DOWN
WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF IS WARRANTED IS TRICKY THIS FAR OUT.
AT LEAST BY 00Z MONDAY PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEMS CIRCULATION WILL
START BEING SAMPLED BY RAOBS FROM CHS AND MHX WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE
FORECAST CERTAINTY. CURRENT FORECAST HEDGED SOME TOWARDS THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE WRF (WHICH INITIALIZED BEST WITH THE POSITION OF THE LOW)
BUT TRIMS POPS SLIGHTLY BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT IN DEFERENCE TO HPC
PREFERENCE OF OTHER GUIDANCE BEYOND ABOUT 12HRS. MANY MODELS OTHER
THAN THE WRF WEAKEN THE LOW OFF OF CAPE FEAR DUE TO INTERACTION FROM
A RETROGRESSION OF ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AROUND
70W/36N...WELL E OF VA. COULD JUST AS EASILY SEE HOW THAT SYSTEM
PEELS OFF TO THE NE INTO ITS OWN WAA ZONE AND THE WRF HAS MORE OF
THE RIGHT IDEA. GIVEN ALL PREV DISCUSSED ANOTHER POINT OF FCST
UNCERTAINTY IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT EVEN THOUGH THE WRF TRACK MAY BE
CLOSEST TO WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS SOME RATHER DRY AIR MAY HANG ON
OVER WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA SEVERELY CUTTING DOWN ON RAIN CHANCES.
DESPITE SOME OF THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS THE CHANCE FOR FLOODING
PROBLEMS WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS LOW SINCE IT REMAINS DISCONNECTED
FROM THE DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE SHUNTED WELL OFFSHORE BY THE LAST
FROPA. ONCE THE FRONTAL INVERSION RETREATS WESTWARD BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL ALSO BECOME RATHER BREEZY. MOST
PLACES STUCK IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ON
SUN ALTHOUGH THE COOLER AIR SLIDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
COULD KEEP SOME LOCATIONS COOLER. MONDAY MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
DESPITE THE CONTINUED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN AS WARM AIR CONTINUES
TO ADVECT IN FROM THE EAST. MONDAYS TEMP FORECAST MAY EVEN HINGE ON
THE THERMAL STRUCTURE/BAROCLINICITY OF THE LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...GREAT LAKES TROUGH THAT ULTIMATELY LEADS TO
THE EXIT OF THE SHORT TERM STORM SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO A WEAK
CUTOFF OVER THE MIDATLANTIC FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
TERM. LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WILL BRING A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
MS/TN VALLEY SHUNTING THE SYSTEM...OR WHATS LEFT OF IT...SOUTHWARD.
IN THE END WEATHER LOCALLY MAY BE A BIT UNSETTLED THOUGH NO
PARTICULAR DAY SHOULD BE A WASH PER SE. ECMWF A LITTLE STRONGER BUT
ALSO FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM IMPLYING THAT DRY AIR COULD WRAP
INTO THE CAROLINAS AROUND ITS SOUTH SIDE BY LATE WED OR THEREABOUTS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH VALID PERIOD...WITH EXCEPTION OF
POTENTIAL FOR LOW MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING AT KILM/KMYR/
KCRE.
A STALLED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE...WITH WIND GUSTS
NEAR 20 KT FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS. THE INLAND TERMINALS WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS TENDING TO THIN THROUGH THE DAY.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...BUT OVERALL
EXPECT SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TO LINGER AS LOW PRESSURE STAYS
JUST OFFSHORE. AFTER SUNSET...GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE ALLOWING FOR
NORTHEAST FLOW AOB 10 KTS TO PREVAIL.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING STRATUS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY...MOSTLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
A NEARLY STALLED TO SLOWLY WESTWARD DRIFTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...
CURRENTLY ABOUT 85 MILES SE OF CAPE FEAR WILL MAKE FOR A HAZARDOUS
MARINE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A PERSISTENT N/NNE WIND UP TO
20 TO 25 KT WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 5 TO 9 FT RANGE. SEAS WILL BE
LOWER ACROSS LONG BAY DUE TO THE OFFSHORE TRAJECTORIES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECLINES MORE THAN USUAL
DURING THE SHORT TERM AS SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
HAS A VERY UNCERTAIN FUTURE. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RETROGRADE SLOWLY
WESTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING AN INCREASED NE WIND. CURRENT
FORECAST SHOWS A RATHER PESSIMISTIC CONTINUATION OF THIS TREND
ALTHOUGH OTHER GUIDANCE WEAKENS THE SYSTEM CONSIDERABLY. OTHER HIGH
RES MODELS SINK THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD AND WOULD SIMILARLY IMPLY
SLIGHTLY MORE BENIGN CONDITIONS THAN CURRENT FCST. BEST ESTIMATE AT
THIS TIME IS THAT SYSTEM WILL STILL BE STRONG AND PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO
WARRANT HEADLINES ON SUNDAY EVEN IF ONLY FOR MARGINAL/6FT SEAS
MAINLY OVER NRN ZONES. MANY REFINEMENTS OF THIS FCST APPEAR LIKELY
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL BE BETTER SAMPLED BY ROBS FROM CHS
AND MHX WITH TIME. FCST SHOWS GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON MONDAY WITH TWO
SEEMING POSSIBILITIES. ONE IS THAT THE SYSTEM IS NO LONGER VERY
CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE. THE OTHER IS SHOWN BY THE WRF SOLUTION THAT
BRINGS THE SYSTEM CLOSE ENOUGH FOR LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS
COMPARED TO THE GUSTY NE WINDS CURRENTLY ALONG THE SYSTEMS WEST SIDE
THAT SHOULD LAST INTO SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...JUST SOME WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGHINESS EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH PESKY UPPER LOW MAY BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER OTHERWISE. A GENERAL SW FLOW NO HIGHER THAN 10 TO 15 KTS
APPEARS LIKELY WITH NO FLAGS/HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RJD/SGL
000
FXUS62 KRAH 190721
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLS OUT AND
DRIFTS TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS BUILT SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND AND
SETTLED ACROSS CENTRAL NC...WHILE A SURFACE LOW TRIES TO ORGANIZE
OFFSHORE OF WILMINGTON UNDER A PERSISTENT WEAK UPPER LOW.
CONVECTION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY FOCUSED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW
CENTER...ANALYZED AT 1011MB BY MSAS...AND IS NO THREAT TO CENTRAL
NC THIS MORNING.
FOR TODAY...WIDESPREAD CIRRUS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING
MAY CLEAR A BIT IN THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CIRRUS
ADVECTS OFF TO THE NORTHWEST AND DRIER AIR SURGES IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS OVER NC VARIES TREMENDOUSLY FROM KGSO TO
KMHX WITH 00Z RAOBS SHOWING PW VALUES OF 0.38 AND 1.61...
RESPECTIVELY. THIS MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY TIGHT...BUT
OVER CENTRAL NC THE AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY AS THE UPSTREAM
KWAL RAOB SHOW LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THROUGH 400MB. THUS...THE
FORECAST WILL BE DRY FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS ON THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE IN THE MID 70S WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW THE UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER.. THERE IS SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND SREF MEMBERS OF A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING EAST OF
THE VA TIDEWATER REGION AS VORTICITY STREAMING NORTH FROM THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS WRAPPED INTO THE UPPER LOW. THESE MODELS SHOW
THIS SURFACE LOW BECOMING THE PRIMARY LOW AND RETROGRADING INLAND
OVER THE OBX ON SUNDAY. THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND CANADIAN MODEL ARE
SOMEWHAT OF OUTLIERS AS THEY SHOW THE CURRENT LOW OFF THE WILMINGTON
COAST REMAINING THE PRIMARY LOW AND MOVING ONSHORE NEAR WILMINGTON.
WHILE THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING WITH THE
CIRCULATION OFFSHORE CANT BE IGNORED AS POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING THE
SURFACE LOW TOWARD A NAM-LIKE SOLUTION...WE WILL FAVOR THE SREF
SOLUTION WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS. POPS WILL
INCREASE TO CHANCE ON THE EAST ON SUNDAY...MAINLY EAST OF US HWY 1
AND HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AS THAT IS WHERE MODELS
SHOW MOISTURE FLUX RAMPING UP THE MOST BY SUNDAY EVENING. HIGHS
SHOULD MOSTLY BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A SHARPER GRADIENT IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND AND
MORE SUN TO THE WEST. WE HAVE GONE CLOSEST TO THE MAV GUIDANCE WITH
LOWER 80S WEST AND MID 70S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM SATURDAY...
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT: THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL AGREE ON BRINGING THE MID
LEVEL LOW ONSHORE OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... WITH THE SURFACE LOW
JUST NORTHEAST OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE ECMWF IS THE
FARTHEST NORTH OVER NE NC... WHILE THE NAM IS THE MOST SOUTHERLY
NEAR MYR. THE SREF MEAN IS A GOOD MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD SOLUTION...
VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS AND JUST SOUTH OF THE ECMWF... WHICH ITSELF
HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT SINCE ITS MIDWEEK RUNS IN BRINGING A
BAGGY MID LEVEL LOW INLAND. WHILE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE
RELATIVELY MINOR OVERALL... THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW RESULTS
IN SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REGARDING SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE
CAROLINAS. THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS DEPICT STEADY MOISTENING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOWEST 3 KM AND PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN CWA. THE
MODEL 6-HOURLY QPF VALUES SUNDAY NIGHT APPEAR OVERDONE IN AMOUNTS...
AS THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP AREAWIDE HOLD AT
OR UNDER 50 PERCENT... AND THE GFS SHOWS RATHER LIMITED UPGLIDE
OUTSIDE OF THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA (AND EVEN HERE IT IS CONFINED TO
THE 295K-300K LAYER). BUT THE DEGREE OF MOISTENING AND LIFT IN THE
NE CWA DOES SUPPORT DECENT COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE HERE
OVERNIGHT. WILL ADJUST POPS A BIT TO RANGE FROM JUST 10-20% IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA TO 40-50% IN THE NORTHEAST INCLUDING ROANOKE RAPIDS
AND ROCKY MOUNT. UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES... EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE
FROM 58 IN THE WEST TO 63 NORTHEAST AS PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
DRIVES UP DEW POINTS.
FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL LOW STEADILY LOSES ITS
DEFINITION AND BECOMES POORLY DEFINED MONDAY AS IT BECOMES NEARLY
STALLED OVER ERN NC. AS THE VORTEX NOW OVER ALBERTA MOVES EAST TO
HUDSON BAY BY MONDAY... A WAVE NOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DROPS
INTO THE TROUGH BASE AND ALSO HEADS EASTWARD WHILE MERGING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. ACCORDING TO THE
REMARKABLY CONSISTENT ECMWF... IT IS THIS RESULTANT WAVE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER WI/MI/IL/IN/KY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND HELP
PULL THE NC MID LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF THE
AREA... AS A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE APPALACHIANS
FROM THE NW. THE ECMWF HAS A RATHER WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND DEEPENING OH VALLEY
WAVE... AND AS SUCH HAS WEAK TO NO FORCING FOR ASCENT AND A RELATIVE
LULL IN PRECIP OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SO MUCH
MODEL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THESE DETAILS... AND WITH THE GFS STILL
GENERATING COPIOUS CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON ... AM RELUCTANT TO REMOVE ALL POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD (ALTHOUGH THE GFS`S 1400-1800 J/KG OF MLCAPE MONDAY AFTERNOON
APPEARS ABNORMALLY HIGH AND MAY BE BASED ON A TOO-WARM NEAR-SURFACE
LAYER). BUT WILL ATTEMPT TO FOCUS THE HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EAST... WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE ACCOMPANYING STEEPENING (YET STILL MODEST NEAR 6 C/KM) MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PLENTIFUL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. THE SREF
APPEARS TO SUPPORT A WETTER GFS-ISH SOLUTION WITH MEASURABLE PRECIP
PROBABILITIES OF 70-90% OVER THE EASTERN CWA ON MONDAY. HIGHS 75-80
WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN. EXPECT WARM LOWS OF 60-64 WITH
CONVECTIVE-DEBRIS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND A HIGH PROBABILITY OF
FOG/STRATUS. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...
FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH BRING THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS TO THE APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY... ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF BECOMES A
BIT STRONGER DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW WITHIN THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
THE STRENGTHENING AND INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT SOUTH/SW LOW LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT YIELDS HIGH COVERAGE OF PREFRONTAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL NC ON TUESDAY... AND BASED ON GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT WITH THIS... WILL BUMP UP POPS A BIT ON TUESDAY. AS THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST INTO WRN NC/VA ON WEDNESDAY... THE
GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD ACCORDINGLY SHIFT INTO EASTERN
NC. THE GFS DOES DEVELOP ITS OWN WEAK MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER VA
BY THIS TIME... LEADING TO CONTINUED STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY.
AS THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH STALL OUT THIS LOW OVER NC/VA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT... EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TO ALSO LINGER INTO THE
NIGHT. WITH AN ATYPICALLY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE OF THICKNESSES... WILL
HOLD ONTO ABOVE NORMAL LOWS AND NEAR NORMAL HIGHS.
FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY: THE WET PATTERN WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS APPEARS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE
WEEK ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF... WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVING VERY
LITTLE. THE ECMWF`S STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING
THROUGH CENTRAL NC THURSDAY EVENTUALLY WEAKENS IN FAVOR OF A
DEEPENING ONSHORE-FLOW... INDICATIVE OF POSSIBLE NUMEROUS
TROPICAL-LIKE SHOWERS. WILL RETAIN GOOD CHANCE POPS FOCUSED ON (BUT
NOT LIMITED TO) EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S AND HIGHS CLOSE TO 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM SATURDAY...
HIGH CLOUDS ARE ABUNDANT OVER CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. HOWEVER...
SIGNIFICANTLY DIRER AIR IS POURING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND
HELPING TO KEEP ANY STRATUS CONFINED TO THE COAST...THOUGH THE
STRATUS MAY WORK INLAND AND BE JUST EAST OF KFAY AND KRWI AROUND
12Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A
GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WIND THAT MAY APPROACH 10KT IN THE
EAST. AS THE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE SLOWLY BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SURGE FURTHER WESTWARD.
BASED ON POOR AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
LOW CEILINGS REACHING KFAY AND KRWI BY 06Z SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH
THE PROBABILITY OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.
LOOKING AHEAD:
THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS SUNDAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS WESTWARD ONSHORE SOMEWHERE OVER
NC/VA. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE THE LOW
WILL TRACK AND EXACTLY WHEN POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE WORSE OVER A MORE
PROLONGED PERIOD OVER EASTERN NC SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
ON TUESDAY...WITH CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...SMITH
000
FXUS62 KMHX 190717
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
317 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFF THE COAST TODAY INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 232 AM SAT...NAM12 HAS BEST HANDLE ON PLACEMENT OF SURFACE LOW
THIS MORNING BEING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER THAN
OTHER MODELS. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND OFF THE
SC/NC COAST THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN AND
TO CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO EASTERN NC. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL HELP KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED. SKY WILL START TO FILL IN
AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE AS TEMPERATURES RISE. BREEZES WILL INCREASE WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE SURFACE LOW. INCREASED CLOUD
COVER SUPPORT LOWERING HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...BUT NOT BY AS MUCH
AS NAM. WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN
EASTERN 2/3 OF CWA...MID 70S AWAY FROM THE EFFECTS OF THE OVERCAST
SKIES. WILL CONTINUE BEACH HAZARD FOR HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND
HIGH SURF ALONG AREA BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 241 AM SAT...NAM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT.
UPPER PATTERN SUPPORTS A MORE OPEN...LESS DEEP LOW...SO WILL LEAN
MORE TOWARD ENSEMBLES SOLUTION FOR TONIGHT. THIS BRINGS THE SURFACE
LOW FURTHER NORTH AND RETROGRADES TOWARD THE COAST SLOWER THAN THE
NAM. HOWEVER THIS ALLOWS MORE ENERGY OVER THE COASTAL SECTIONS FOR
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIP ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. ENSEMBLE BLEND
OF TEMPERATURES HAS MID 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH MID 60S ALONG
THE COAST. STILL DONT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF AS MAJORITY OF
PRECIP WILL FALL OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...MDLS SHOW SIMILAR TRENDS OF STACKED LOW
PRESSURE DRIFTING W AND ONSHORE SUNDAY INTO MON...THEN SLOWLY
LIFTING NE OF REGION TUE AS NEXT SRT WAVE APPROACHES. DETAILS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN ON POSITION OF SFC LOW AND QPF...HOWEVER GENERAL TRENDS
WILL BE FOR INCREASING MOISTURE AND BETTER CVRG OF SHRA SUN INTO
MON. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHC SUN AND INLAND MON...LATER SHIFTS
MAY BE ABLE TO BUMP THESE UP TO LIKELY IN AREAS IF MDLS COME INTO
MORE AGREEMENT. AS MOISTURE INCREASES SUN AND MON WILL SEE SOME
WEAK INSTAB DEVELOP SO ADDED MENTION OF TSRA ALL BUT DEEP INLAND
AREAS SUNDAY AFTN AND ALL LOCATION MON. WILL CONT TO SEE SCT SHRA
AND FEW TSRA INTO TUE AS INIT SYSTEM LIFTS SLOWLY NE AND NEXT ONE
APPROACHES. MDLS AGAIN SHOW MID/UPR LOW DEVELOPING MID WEEK ACROSS
THE REGION...MOISTURE LOOKS A BIT LESS WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT WILL
MAINTAIN CHC POPS. THIS LOW WILL GRAD WEAKEN AND SHIFT E LATE IN
WEEK WITH GRAD DECREASE CHCS OF PRECIP BUT WL STILL HAVE AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHC. HIGHS WILL HOLD IN THE 70S SUNDAY THEN SHLD GRAD WARM
TO LOWER 80S INLAND REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1236 AM SAT...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TAFS WILL
HAVE PERIODS OF MVFR IN LOWER CIGS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE COAST... SPECIFICALLY AT OAJ.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE SUN AND MON AS STACKED
LOW DRIFTS ONSHORE...THIS WILL LEAD TO DECENT CVRG OF SHRA AND
POSS A FEW TSRA WITH PERIOD OF REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES. SYSTEM
SLOWLY LIFT NE OF REGION TUE HOWEVER WILL LIKELY HAVE ENOUGH LOW
LVL MOISTURE FOR POSS STRATUS EARLY IN MORN THEN SOME MVFR CIGS
LATER IN THE MORN. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL CUTOFF TO THE W OF REGION
WED AND THIS WILL AGAIN LEAD TO SCT CONVECTION AND PERIODS OF
REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 251 AM SAT...SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTION CONTINUE WITH
THIS RUN. NAM12 HAS INITIALIZED THE BEST TONIGHT WITH PLACEMENT OF
SURFACE LOW OFF THE NC/SC COAST...BUT DEEPENS IT TOO MUCH TONIGHT.
NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE 8 TO 10 FEET IN NORTHERN
WATERS WITH NORTHEAST FETCH. SEAS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 7 FEET IN
SOUTHERN WATERS. LOW WILL BECOME DOUBLE BARREL AS ANOTHER WAVE
DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHER WATERS LATER TODAY AND RETROGRADES TOWARDS
THE COAST TONIGHT. GRADIENT WILL START TO LOOSEN AS LOW APPROACHES
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS OVER THE SOUNDS TO DROP BELOW SCA
CRITERIA LATER TONIGHT...BUT THEY WILL STAY ABOVE SCA CRITERIA OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...SFC LOW EXPECTED TO REACH CST
SUNDAY...EXACT LOCATION STILL UNCERTAIN BUT LEANING TWRD GFS WITH
LOW NEAR CENTRAL CST SUNDAY. PLACEMENT OF LOW WILL OBVIOUSLY GREATLY
IMPACT WIND DIR HOWEVER WITH OW ALONG THE CST SPEEDS FOR THE MOST
PART SO REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS. LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE INTO TUE
WITH WIND DIR GRAD BECOMING MORE SW AT LESS THAN 15 KTS. SW FLOW
EXPECTED TO CONT INTO WED AS ANOTHER STACKED LOW DVLPS TO THE W.
SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE ALTER SUN AND SUN NIGHT WITH SC ENDING
FROM S TO N ON COASTAL WTRS. DESPITE RATHER LIGHT WINDS WAVEWATCH
CONTS TO SHOW 4 TO 5 FT SEAS OUTER WTRS THRU MID WEEK WITH
LINGERING SE SWELL.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ095-103-104.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ130-135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CGG/RF
MARINE...CGG/RF
000
FXUS62 KRAH 190704
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
304 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLS OUT AND
DRIFTS TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS BUILT SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND AND
SETTLED ACROSS CENTRAL NC...WHILE A SURFACE LOW TRIES TO ORGANIZE
OFFSHORE OF WILMINGTON UNDER A PERSISTENT WEAK UPPER LOW.
CONVECTION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY FOCUSED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW
CENTER...ANALYZED AT 1011MB BY MSAS...AND IS NO THREAT TO CENTRAL
NC THIS MORNING.
FOR TODAY...WIDESPREAD CIRRUS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING
MAY CLEAR A BIT IN THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CIRRUS
ADVECTS OFF TO THE NORTHWEST AND DRIER AIR SURGES IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS OVER NC VARIES TREMENDOUSLY FROM KGSO TO
KMHX WITH 00Z RAOBS SHOWING PW VALUES OF 0.38 AND 1.61...
RESPECTIVELY. THIS MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY TIGHT...BUT
OVER CENTRAL NC THE AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY AS THE UPSTREAM
KWAL RAOB SHOW LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THROUGH 400MB. THUS...THE
FORECAST WILL BE DRY FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS ON THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE IN THE MID 70S WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW THE UPPER LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE. HOWEVER.. THERE IS SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND SREF MEMBERS OF A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING EAST OF
THE VA TIDEWATER REGION AS VORTICITY STREAMING NORTH FROM THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN IS WRAPPED INTO THE UPPER LOW. THESE MODELS SHOW THIS
SURFACE LOW BECOMING THE PRIMARY LOW AND RETROGRADING INLAND OVER THE
OBX ON SUNDAY. THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND CANADIAN MODEL ARE SOMEWHAT
OF OUTLIERS AS THEY SHOW THE CURRENT LOW OFF THE WILMINGTON COAST
REMAINING THE PRIMARY LOW AND MOVING ONSHORE NEAR WILMINGTON. WHILE
THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING WITH THE CIRCULATION
OFFSHORE CANT BE IGNORED AS POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING THE SURFACE LOW
TOWARD A NAM-LIKE SOLUTION...WE WILL FAVOR THE SREF SOLUTION WHICH
IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS. POPS WILL INCREASE TO CHANCE
ON THE EAST ON SUNDAY...MAINLY EAST OF US HWY 1 AND HIGHEST OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AS THAT IS WHERE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE FLUX
RAMPING UP THE MOST BY SUNDAY EVENING. HIGHS SHOULD MOSTLY BE
SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A SHARPER GRADIENT IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND AND MORE SUN TO THE
WEST. WE HAVE GONE CLOSEST TO THE MAV GUIDANCE WITH LOWER 80S
WEST AND MID 70S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM SATURDAY...
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT: THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL AGREE ON BRINGING THE MID
LEVEL LOW ONSHORE OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... WITH THE SURFACE LOW
JUST NORTHEAST OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE ECMWF IS THE
FARTHEST NORTH OVER NE NC... WHILE THE NAM IS THE MOST SOUTHERLY
NEAR MYR. THE SREF MEAN IS A GOOD MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD SOLUTION...
VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS AND JUST SOUTH OF THE ECMWF... WHICH ITSELF
HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT SINCE ITS MIDWEEK RUNS IN BRINGING A
BAGGY MID LEVEL LOW INLAND. WHILE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE
RELATIVELY MINOR OVERALL... THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW RESULTS
IN SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REGARDING SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE
CAROLINAS. THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS DEPICT STEADY MOISTENING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOWEST 3 KM AND PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN CWA. THE
MODEL 6-HOURLY QPF VALUES SUNDAY NIGHT APPEAR OVERDONE IN AMOUNTS...
AS THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP AREAWIDE HOLD AT
OR UNDER 50 PERCENT... AND THE GFS SHOWS RATHER LIMITED UPGLIDE
OUTSIDE OF THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA (AND EVEN HERE IT IS CONFINED TO
THE 295K-300K LAYER). BUT THE DEGREE OF MOISTENING AND LIFT IN THE
NE CWA DOES SUPPORT DECENT COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE HERE
OVERNIGHT. WILL ADJUST POPS A BIT TO RANGE FROM JUST 10-20% IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA TO 40-50% IN THE NORTHEAST INCLUDING ROANOKE RAPIDS
AND ROCKY MOUNT. UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES... EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE
FROM 58 IN THE WEST TO 63 NORTHEAST AS PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
DRIVES UP DEW POINTS.
FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL LOW STEADILY LOSES ITS
DEFINITION AND BECOMES POORLY DEFINED MONDAY AS IT BECOMES NEARLY
STALLED OVER ERN NC. AS THE VORTEX NOW OVER ALBERTA MOVES EAST TO
HUDSON BAY BY MONDAY... A WAVE NOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DROPS
INTO THE TROUGH BASE AND ALSO HEADS EASTWARD WHILE MERGING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. ACCORDING TO THE
REMARKABLY CONSISTENT ECMWF... IT IS THIS RESULTANT WAVE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER WI/MI/IL/IN/KY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND HELP
PULL THE NC MID LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF THE
AREA... AS A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE APPALACHIANS
FROM THE NW. THE ECMWF HAS A RATHER WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND DEEPENING OH VALLEY
WAVE... AND AS SUCH HAS WEAK TO NO FORCING FOR ASCENT AND A RELATIVE
LULL IN PRECIP OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SO MUCH
MODEL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THESE DETAILS... AND WITH THE GFS STILL
GENERATING COPIOUS CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON ... AM RELUCTANT TO REMOVE ALL POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD (ALTHOUGH THE GFS`S 1400-1800 J/KG OF MLCAPE MONDAY AFTERNOON
APPEARS ABNORMALLY HIGH AND MAY BE BASED ON A TOO-WARM NEAR-SURFACE
LAYER). BUT WILL ATTEMPT TO FOCUS THE HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EAST... WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE ACCOMPANYING STEEPENING (YET STILL MODEST NEAR 6 C/KM) MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PLENTIFUL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. THE SREF
APPEARS TO SUPPORT A WETTER GFS-ISH SOLUTION WITH MEASURABLE PRECIP
PROBABILITIES OF 70-90% OVER THE EASTERN CWA ON MONDAY. HIGHS 75-80
WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN. EXPECT WARM LOWS OF 60-64 WITH
CONVECTIVE-DEBRIS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND A HIGH PROBABILITY OF
FOG/STRATUS. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...
THERE ARE SOME PRETTY GLARING DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY PERIOD. THE GFS IS UP TO ITS USUAL TRICKS/BIAS...
RACING THE OPEN WAVE TROUGH EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...WHILE THE EC IS MORE SLOWER TO ADVANCE THE SYSTEM
EASTWARD...DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED LOW INVOF OF THE OHIO/TN VALLEY
BEFORE FINALLY CROSSING THE AREA ON THURSDAY. UNTIL THERE IS BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT WILL BROAD BRUSH SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AFTERWORDS.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-LEVEL SWLY FLOW. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM SATURDAY...
HIGH CLOUDS ARE ABUNDANT OVER CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. HOWEVER...
SIGNIFICANTLY DIRER AIR IS POURING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND
HELPING TO KEEP ANY STRATUS CONFINED TO THE COAST...THOUGH THE
STRATUS MAY WORK INLAND AND BE JUST EAST OF KFAY AND KRWI AROUND
12Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A
GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WIND THAT MAY APPROACH 10KT IN THE
EAST. AS THE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE SLOWLY BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SURGE FURTHER WESTWARD.
BASED ON POOR AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
LOW CEILINGS REACHING KFAY AND KRWI BY 06Z SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH
THE PROBABILITY OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.
LOOKING AHEAD:
THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS SUNDAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS WESTWARD ONSHORE SOMEWHERE OVER
NC/VA. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE THE LOW
WILL TRACK AND EXACTLY WHEN POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE WORSE OVER A MORE
PROLONGED PERIOD OVER EASTERN NC SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
ON TUESDAY...WITH CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SMITH
000
FXUS62 KMHX 190651 AAB
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
251 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFF THE COAST TODAY INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 232 AM SAT...NAM12 HAS BEST HANDLE ON PLACEMENT OF SURFACE LOW
THIS MORNING BEING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER THAN
OTHER MODELS. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND OFF THE
SC/NC COAST THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN AND
TO CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO EASTERN NC. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL HELP KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED. SKY WILL START TO FILL IN
AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE AS TEMPERATURES RISE. BREEZES WILL INCREASE WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE SURFACE LOW. INCREASED CLOUD
COVER SUPPORT LOWERING HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...BUT NOT BY AS MUCH
AS NAM. WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN
EASTERN 2/3 OF CWA...MID 70S AWAY FROM THE EFFECTS OF THE OVERCAST
SKIES. WILL CONTINUE BEACH HAZARD FOR HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND
HIGH SURF ALONG AREA BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 241 AM SAT...NAM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT.
UPPER PATTERN SUPPORTS A MORE OPEN...LESS DEEP LOW...SO WILL LEAN
MORE TOWARD ENSEMBLES SOLUTION FOR TONIGHT. THIS BRINGS THE SURFACE
LOW FURTHER NORTH AND RETROGRADES TOWARD THE COAST SLOWER THAN THE
NAM. HOWEVER THIS ALLOWS MORE ENERGY OVER THE COASTAL SECTIONS FOR
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIP ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. ENSEMBLE BLEND
OF TEMPERATURES HAS MID 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH MID 60S ALONG
THE COAST. STILL DONT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF AS MAJORITY OF
PRECIP WILL FALL OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM FRIDAY...AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF MODEL HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE COASTAL LOW RETROGRADING WEST FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY...BRING AN INCREASING OF POPS
BOTH INLAND AND COASTAL AREA. IT STILL APPEARS COASTAL AREAS WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE RAIN AND WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
IN THESE AREAS HOWEVER WILL KEEP IN CHC RANGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.
WENT WITH ECMWF/HPC WITH THE COASTAL LOW MOVING OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK
BY ANOTHER UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE AREA BY MID TO LATE WEEK. BTW
THE EXIT OF THE COASTAL LOW AND THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW...CONTINUED WITH THE THREAT OF SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
DAY AS THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY.
MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN 70S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WARMING BACK INTO
LOW-MID 80S REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1236 AM SAT...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TAFS WILL
HAVE PERIODS OF MVFR IN LOWER CIGS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE COAST... SPECIFICALLY AT OAJ.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOWING SURFACE LOW RETROGRADING TOWARD THE COAST LATE IN
THE WEEKEND...EXPECT DETERIORATING AVIATION CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND LIKELY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS OUT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
AS OF 251 AM SAT...SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTION CONTINUE WITH
THIS RUN. NAM12 HAS INITIALIZED THE BEST TONIGHT WITH PLACEMENT OF
SURFACE LOW OFF THE NC/SC COAST...BUT DEEPENS IT TOO MUCH TONIGHT.
NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE 8 TO 10 FEET IN NORTHERN
WATERS WITH NORTHEAST FETCH. SEAS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 7 FEET IN
SOUTHERN WATERS. LOW WILL BECOME DOUBLE BARREL AS ANOTHER WAVE
DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHER WATERS LATER TODAY AND RETROGRADES TOWARDS
THE COAST TONIGHT. GRADIENT WILL START TO LOOSEN AS LOW APPROACHES
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS OVER THE SOUNDS TO DROP BELOW SCA
CRITERIA LATER TONIGHT...BUT THEY WILL STAY ABOVE SCA CRITERIA OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO PREV FORECAST. WITH THE
COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST AND RETROGRADING WEST FOR SUNDAY...EXPECT
NE FLOW TO CONT EARLY SUN MORNING WITH SPEEDS MAINLY 15 TO 25 KTS
AND DIMINISHING 10 TO 15 KTS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL
FINALLY LIFT TO THE N EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS BECOMING
N/NW MON AND WSW TUE AS SPEEDS REMAIN LIGHT. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 7 TO 9
FT OVER THE OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS LATE SAT TO EARLY SUN MORNING.
SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH GRAD SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE OFFSHORE.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR NCZ095-103-104.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ130-135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...CGG
MARINE...CGG/BM
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